Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1977
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Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators February 1977 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1977 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) RICHARD BOLLDSFG, Missouri, Chairman HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Via Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) OTIS G. PIKE (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman LYLE E. GRAMLEY WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMBS [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" ed by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary y Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2,55 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product rose $34.5 billion or at an annual rate of 8.3 percent. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. The implicit deflator rose at a 5.7 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 1969 1968 1971 1970 1974 1973 1972 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 753.0 464. 8 796.3 490.4 868.5 535.9 935.5 579.7 982.4 618.8 1, 063. 4 668.2 1, 171. 1 733.0 1, 306. 6 809.9 1, 413. 2 887.5 1, 516. 3 973.2 1, 691. 4 I, 079. 7 1, 446. 2 933.2 1, 482. 3 960.3 1, 548. 7 987.3 1, 588. 2 1, 012. 0 1, 636. 2 1, 043. 6 !!___ 1, 675. 2 1, 064. 7 III... 1, 709. 8 1, 088. 5 IV 1, 744 3 1, 122. 0 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1975:1 II__. III__ 1V___ 1976: I Gross private domestic investment 124. 5 120.8 131.5 146.2 140.8 160.0 188. 3 220.0 215. 0 183. 7 239. 6 172.4 164. 4 196.7 201.4 229. 6 239.2 247. 0 242.8 Export,s and imi>orts of gooc Ls and ser vices Net exports 5. 1 4.9 2. 3 1.8 3.9 1. 6 -3.3 7. 1 7.5 20. 5 6.4 15. 0 24.4 21.4 21.0 8.4 9.3 4.7 3.3 Exports Imports Total 42. 8 45.6 49. 9 54.7 62. 5 65. 6 72.7 101.6 144. 4 148. 1 162.7 147. 5 142. 9 148. 2 153.7 154. 1 160. 3 167. 7 168.6 37. 7 40.6 47. 7 52. 9 58.5 64. 0 75.9 94.4 136.9 127. 6 156.3 132. 5 118. 5 126.8 132. 7 145. 7 151. 0 163.0 165. 3 158. 7 180.2 198. 7 207.9 218.9 233.7 253. 1 269. 5 303.3 339. 0 365.6 325. 6 333.2 343.2 353. 8 354. 7 362. 0 369.6 376.2 »This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 83. Go^yernment purchases of goods and Total 78.8 90. 9 98. 0 97. 5 95. 6 96.2 102. 1 102. 2 111. 6 124.4 133.4 120. 3 122.4 124. 6 130. 4 129. 2 131.2 134. 5 138.9 services Federal National defense l 60. 3 71. 5 76. 9 76. 3 73.5 70.2 73. 5 73. 5 77.3 84. 3 88.2 82. 0 83. 4 84. 6 87. 1 86. 2 86. 9 88.5 91.3 Nondefense 18. 5 19. 5 21. 2 21. 2 22. 1 26. 0 28. 6 28.7 34.3 40. 1 45. 2 38. 3 39. 0 40.0 43. 2 42. 9 44.2 46.0 47.6 State and local Final sales 79. 8 738.7 89.3 786.2 100.7 860. 8 110.4 926. 2 123. 2 978. 6 137.5 1, 057. 1 151. 0 1, 161. 7 167.3 1, 288. 6 191.6 1, 402. 5 214. 5 1,531.0 232. 2 1, 679. 5 205.3 1, 468. 4 210. 9 1, 512. 3 218.6 1, 550. 6 223.4 1, 592. 5 225. 5 1, 621. 4 230. 9 | 1, 659. 2 235. 0 1, 694. 7 237. 4 1, 742. 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exj>orts of gc>ods Gross private dc>mestie investmen t and service Personal conGross Change national sumpNonKesi- in busiproduct tion Net resiExports Imports expend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Period Govern]tnent pureshases of goocla and services Total Federal Final sales State and local 1 981.0 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 214. 0 1, 191. 7 1,264.6 586.1 603.2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 767.7 759. 1 770.3 8ia7 106.1 103. 5 108.0 114.3 110.0 108.0 116.8 131.0 12a5 111.4 115.7 38.5 37.2 42.8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59. 7 45.0 38.4 47.1 16. 7 12.0 8.7 10. 6 43 6.6 9.4 16. 5 8. 5 — 12.0 8.1 43 3.5 — .4 -1.3 1.4 —.6 — 3. 3 7.6 16.5 22.6 15.8 51.6 542 58.5 62.2 67.1 67.9 72.7 87.4 97.2 90.6 9ai 47.3 50.7 58.9 63. 5 65. 7 68.5 75.9 79.9 80.7 68. 1 80.3 229.3 248.3 259.2 256. 7 250.2 249.4 253. 1 252.5 256.4 261.0 264 1 112. 5 125.3 128.3 121.8 110.7 103.9 102.1 96.6 95.3 95. 7 96.7 116.8 123.1 130.9 1349 139. 5 145.5 151. 0 155. 9 161. 1 165.2 167.4 9643 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 205. 5 1, 203. 7 1, 256. 4 1, 161. 1 1975: 1 !!___ 1, 177. 1 III__ 1, 209. 3 rv... 1, 219. 2 7546 767.5 775.3 783. 9 114.4 110.6 110. 1 110.5 35.4 36.8 39.6 41.9 -20. 5 -21. 2 — 1. 0 -5. 5 20. 1 24 3 22.8 23. 1 90.3 87.7 90.7 93.9 70.2 63.4 67.9 70.8 257. 1 259. 1 262.4 265.2 948 95.3 95.6 97.2 162.2 163.8 166.9 168.0 1, 181. 6 1, 198. 2 1, 210. 2 1, 224 7 1, 246. 3 1976:1 II... 1, 260. 0 III.. 1, 272. 2 !¥__- 1, 279. 9 800. 7 808.6 815.7 829. 7 112.6 114 9 117.5 117.9 44 1 45.7 47.4 51. 1 10.4 11.1 10.2 .9 16. 6 16.0 15.7 15.0 93.6 95.4 98.0 97. 4 77.0 79.4 82. 3 82.4 261.9 263.6 265.5 265.3 95.4 96.0 97.3 166.6 167.7 168.2 167.3 1, 235. 9 1, 248. 8 1, 262. 0 1, 279. 0 1966_ 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9ai IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Period Gross national product Personal consumj>tion expejnditures Total Gross private dom estic inves ;ment NonNonresDurable durable Services idential goods fixed goods Residential fixed Expoi ts and imports of goods and s(srvices Governnaent purchases of goods and s(3rvices State Exports Imports Federal and local 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 76.76 79.02 82. 57 86. 72 91. 36 96. 02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 41 127. 25 133. 75 79.3 81.3 846 88.5 92. 5 96. 6 100. 0 105. 5 116. 9 126.3 132.7 85.7 87.4 90.7 93. 1 95. 5 99. 0 100.0 101. 6 108. 3 117. 7 1244 80.1 81.9 85.3 89. 4 93. 6 96.6 100.0 107. 9 124 0 133. 7 isao 76.5 78.8 82.0 86. 1 90. 5 95. 8 100.0 104 7 113. 5 122.7 131.0 76.8 79.3 82. 6 86. 6 91. 3 96.4 100.0 103. 8 116. 1 132. 1 138. 2 746 77.0 80. 7 87. 7 90. 6 94 9 100.0 110. 8 122. 3 133.2 143. 9 82.8 840 85.3 87. 9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116. 2 148.6 163.4 169. 3 79.7 80. 1 80. 9 83. 3 89. 1 93.5 100. 0 118. 2 169. 6 187.4 1947 70. 1 72. 6 76.4 80.0 86.4 92. 6 100.0 105. 8 117. 1 130.0 138.0 68.4 72.5 76.9 81.9 88.3 94 5 100.0 107.3 119. 0 129. 8 138.7 1975: I II III IV 124 55 125. 93 128. 07 130. 27 123.7 125. 1 127. 3 129. 1 115. 1 117. 1 118.2 120. 2 131.2 132. 1 135. 1 136.2 119.7 121. 5 123.6 125. 9 129. 4 131. 8 132. 7 1345 131. 5 132. 1 132. 8 135.9 163. 4 163. 0 163. 4 163.7 188.9 186.9 186.6 187. 3 126. 8 128.4 130.4 134.2 126. 5 128. 7 131.0 132.9 1976:1 II III IV.. ._ 131. 29 132. 96 13440 136. 29 130.3 131.7 133.4 135.2 121. 8 123.8 124 9 127. 0 136.4 136. 9 13a 5 139.9 128.0 129. 8 132. 0 1340 136. 2 137. 5 13a7 140.5 139. 0 142.9 145. 3 147.7 164 6 168. 1 171.1 173. 1 189.2 190.4 198. 1 200.6 135.4 136.7 138. 3 141.6 135.4 137.7 139. 7 141. 9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Period Implicit price deflator Gross domestic product Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index 9.4 5.8 9. 1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10.1 11.6 8.2 7.3 11.5 5.9 2.7 4.4 2.6 —.3 3. 0 5.7 5. 5 -1.7 — 1. 8 6. 1 3.3 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4. 1 5. 8 10. 0 9.3 5.1 3. 1 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.1 6.0 10.0 9.2 5.4 2.9 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 10.0 9.2 5.4 9.6 5.7 9. 1 7.8 5.0 8.1 10.1 11.5 7.8 7.7 11.4 1975: 1 II III • IV _. g 10. 4 19. 1 10. 6 -9.9 5.6 11.4 3.3 10. 1 4. 5 7.0 7.1 9.2 5.4 7.3 6.4 8.9 5.4 7.3 6.6 1976: 1 II 12. 6 9.9 8.5 8. 3 9.2 4.5 3.9 2.4 3. 2 5.2 4.4 5.7 4.3 5.4 4.6 5.7 4. 2 5.2 4.6 5.8 1966 1967 1968 1969. 1970. 1971.. 1972 1973 1974. 1975 1976 — . _- , III IV _ . „ „_ NOTE.—-Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.7 -1.7 6.1 3.3 3.0 4.5 5.1 5.3 5. 1 4. 1 5.7 9.6 9. 5 5.1 3. 1 3.1 4.4 5.0 5. 3 5.0 4. 1 5. 9 9. 7 9.3 5.4 3.0 3.0 4.4 5.0 5. 2 4.9 4.0 5. 9 9.7 9. 2 5.5 .7 10. 1 19. 1 10.8 — 9.2 5.4 11.3 3.4 10.9 4.5 7.0 7.1 9.4 5.5 7. 4 6.4 9. 0 5.5 7.4 6.7 12.2 10.1 8.2 8.4 9. 0 4.6 3.8 2. 4 3. 0 5.3 4.2 5.8 4.3 5.4 4.4 5.7 4.2 5.3 4.4 5.8 6.1 2.7 4.4 2.6 — Q Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974™ 1975 1976 9. 1975: I !!__„ III.. IV___ 1976:1 II.— III.. Gross c omestic prodiict of nonfiE ancial corp orate busi ness (billk>ns of doll ars) Current dollars 1972 dollars 430. 7 452.9 498.4 541.8 560.6 602.5 671. 0 752. 0 810. 0 870.4 981.7 822. 3 851. 1 892. 0 916. 1 949. 0 972. 8 993. 8 532.9 545.8 581. 6 607.3 600.6 619. 3 671.0 720.4 698. 7 676. 8 726.4 653. 1 668. 1 688. 9 696. 1 713.9 725. 7 731. 5 l C urrent do liar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars]\ Total cost and profit 2 0. 808 .830 .857 . 892 .933 .973 1.000 1. 044 1. 159 1.286 1. 352 1. 259 1. 274 1. 295 1. 316 1. 329 1. 341 1. 359 Capital conComsumption penallowNet ances Indirect sation inwith business of capital taxes * employ- terest conees sumption adjustment 0.067 . 072 .074 . 079 .088 . 094 .093 . 095 . 116 . 143 . 149 . 139 . 142 . 143 . 146 . 146 . 147 . 149 0. 080 . 084 . 089 . 094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 . 138 . 138 . 135 . 138 . 139 . 140 . 136 . 137 .138 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars, 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corpc rate profits with invent*Dry valualAon and capit al eonsuniption ttdjustmen ts Total 0. 513 0. 014 0.134 . 016 . 123 .535 . 017 . 124 .553 .022 . 109 .589 .086 .028 .628 . 029 .095 .645 . 028 .107 .661 . 105 . 699 . 032 . 794 . 041 .085 . 045 . 107 . 853 . 049 . 132 .883 . 046 . 076 .863 . 847 . 045 . 101 . 842 . 045 . 126 . 046 .124 .860 . 047 . 131 .869 .876 . 049 .132 .884 . 050 . 137 Profits tax liability 0.055 .051 .058 . 055 .045 .048 .050 .055 . 061 . 059 .074 . 046 .053 . 066 . 068 . 072 .074 .075 Profits after4 tax 0. 078 .072 .066 .055 .041 .046 .057 .050 . 024 . 048 .058 i .030 .049 .059 . 055 . 059 .058 .062 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 6. 777 6. 873 7. 105 7. 139 7. 132 7. 374 7. 595 7.781 7.545 7.756 3.478 3. 676 3. 929 4. 198 4.478 4. 757 5.024 5. 441 5. 990 6.613 7.479 7. 734 7. 90S 7.891 7. 971 8. 057 8. 108 6.453 6. 554 6. 661 6.785 6.926 7.055 7. 170 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De>artment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees l Propri etors' income3 with inventor y valuation anc capital consunaption adjust ments Farm ,,r 1966 1967..1968 1969 1970 . ---1971 1972 1973 . 1974 1975 1976" 1975: I. II III •• I V 1976: I II III.. XV* 13.6 12.1 12,0 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32. 0 25. 8 24.9 22.8 17.9 24. 1 29. 2 28.3 21. 9 27.5 21.7 20.3 439.3 622. 2 471.9 655, 8 519. 8 714. 4 571. 4 - 767.9 609.2 798. 4 650. 3 858. 1 715. 1 951. 9 799.2 1, 064. 6 875. 8 1, 135. 7 928. 8 1, 207. 6 1, 348. 4 1, 02a 4 904.0 1, 149. 7 912.9 1, 182. 7 935.2 1, 233. 4 963. 1 1, 264. 6 994.4 1, 304 7 1, 337. 4 1, 017. 2 1, 362. 5 1, 037. 5 1, 064. 5 - Nonfarm 46. 7 48.9 51.4 52. 3 51.2 sa4 58.1 60.4 61. 1 65. 3 73.8 63.2 62.7 66. 3 69. 0 71.4 72.8 74.4 76.8 Rental income with capital consumo— tion adjustment 18.2 19.4 iae 18. 1 1&6 20.1 21.5 21.6 21.0 22. 4 23.5 21.9 22.3 22.4 22. 9 23.3 23. 1 23. 4 24.3 Corpor ate profits with inv entory va uation and capital co nsumptioii adjiistments Profits with inv<entory valuat ion adjus fcment and ^without cai,pital consum ption adjiistment Total Total 82.5 79.3 85.8 81.4 67.9 77.2 92.1 99. 1 84. 8 91.6 117.7 69. 0 86.6 105.3 105. 6 115. 1 116.4 122.0 7&6 75.6 82.1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 87, 8 103. 1 133.2 77.7 97. 9 117.9 119. 1 129. 6 131.8 137.6 Profits before tax 80. 7 77.3 85.6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 127.6 114. 5 147.8 942 105. 8 126.9 131.3 141.1 146.2 150. 2 Inventory valua- Capital Net coninterest sumption adjustment adjustment -2. 1 — 1.7 -3.4 — 5. 5 — 5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18. 6 -39.8 -11.4 — 14. 6 — 16.5 -7.8 -9.0 -12.3 -11. 5 -14.4 -12.6 —20.0 3.9 3. 7 3.7 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -3. 0 — 11. 5 -15.5 -8.6 -11.4 -12.6 — 13. 5 -14.5 -15.4 — 15. 7 — 16.4 21.9 24.3 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52. 3 67. 1 746 82.0 73. 7 74 0 749 75.8 78.6 80.3 83.5 85. 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. * Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1966_ 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971 1972 1973 „ 1974 1975__ 1976 1975: I II III_._ IV... 197C: I II III — IV. . Total personal consumption expenditures 464 8 490. 4 535. 9 579.7 618. 8 668. 2 733.0 809. 9 887. 5 973. 2 1, 079. 7 933. 2 960.3 987. 3 1, 012. 0 1, 043. 6 1, 064. 7 1, 088. 5 1, 122. 0 Total durable1 goods Motor vehicles and parts 67.7 69. 6 80. 0 85. 5 84 9 97. 1 111. 2 123. 7 121. 6 131. 7 156.5 122. 1 127. 0 136. 0 141. 8 151. 4 155. 0 157.6 162.0 30. 1 29.7 35. 8 37. 7 34 9 43. 8 50. 6 55.2 47. 9 53. 2 70.7 47.6 49.5 56. 3 59. 2 68. 0 70. 4 71.7 72. 7 * Total includes other items not shown separately. 4 Retail sales of new passenger cars (nlillions of uiaits) Nondura ble goods D urable goo Is Furniture and household equipment 27. 7 29. 5 32.6 35. 0 36. 7 39.4 448 50.7 54 7 57. 6 63.0 54. 6 57.0 58. 2 60. 6 61. 2 62. 3 62.9 65. 6 Total nondurable goods * 204 7 212. 6 230. 4 247.0 2647 277. 7 299.3 333. 8 376.2 409. 1 440.4 394 4 405. 8 4146 421. 6 429. 1 434 8 441.8 456. 0 Food 106. 6 109.6 118.3 126. 1 136.3 140.6 150.4 168. 1 189. 9 209. 5 2244 203. 2 207.8 211.8 215. 2 219. 2 223. 1 225. 2 230.2 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 36.6 38.2 41.8 45. 1 46.6 50. 5 55. 1 61. 3 65. 1 70. 0 75.4 66. 6 69.3 71.3 73.0 73. 5 73. 2 75.9 79.0 16. 0 17. 0 18.4 20. 4 22. 0 23.4 249 27. 8 36.3 38.9 41. 5 37. 9 38. 6 39.2 39.9 40. 1 40. 3 41.6 44 1 Services Domestics 192. 4 208. 1 225.6 247.2 269. 1 293.4 322. 4 352. 3 389.6 432.4 482.8 416. 7 427. 4 436.7 44ae 463. 2 4749 489. 1 5040 8.4 7.6 8.6 8. 5 7. 1 8.7 9.3 9.7 7.5 7. 1 8.6 6. 7 6. 3 7.6 7.7 8. 9 8. 7 ae as Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports 0.7 .8 1. 0 1. 1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1. 8 1. 4 1. 6 1.5 1. 7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1. 3 1,4 1.5 1.7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $3.8 billion in January, the smallest rise in over a year, as winter storms slowed the pace of wages and salaries, dividends declined, and personal contributions for social insurance rose $1.9 billion due largely to an increase in social security taxes. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLURS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600. 600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 400 400 OTHER INCOME MI l%iiitinii«iiititiin»»*** * 200 200 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 100 100 f^^^iam* »? 80 80 60 40 1,1 I I I t i l l 1 I I M M i l l 1 I I I I I 1 1 1 !1 1 | » I I 1969 1971 1970 ! » 1 | I 1 I I 1 I 1 !.1 I I I j I I 1 I I 1972 1973 i \ i i 1 1 1 1 ij r 1974 n T 1 1 1 n i n 1 1 1 1 1 i n J 40 1977 1976 1975 *SEASONAILY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions oi dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage 3 Rental Other Proprieto rs' income Total and income labor personal salary of income disburse- income12 Farm Nonfarm persons 4 ments * Period 1969 745.8 1970_._ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May _ June July.__ Aug Sept_ 801. 3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 153. 3 1, 249. 7 13 375. 3 1, 320. 8 1, 331. 4 1, 341. 9 1, 352. 5 1, 362. 9 1, 370. 4 1, 380. 8 1, 385. 5 1, 391. 7 1, 404. 2 Oct 1,421.4 Nov Dec 1, 439. 5 1977: Jan *___ 1, 443. 3 514. 6 546. 5 579.4 633.8 701. 3 765.0 806.7 890.4 854.2 861.4 868.8 876. 883. 883. 892. 9 3 1 7 897.4 903.5 911. 921. 930. 935. 3 5 1 0 28.2 32. 0 36.2 42.0 48. 7 55. 5 62. 5 70. 1 66.4 67. 1 67. 7 68.4 69.0 69. 7 70.4 71. 1 71. 7 72. 4 73.2 74.1 74.9 13.9 13. 9 14.3 18.0 32. 0 25.8 24.9 22.8 24. 6 21. 1 20. 0 23. 3 27. 5 31. 6 26.0 21.0 18. 1 18.6 19.6 22. 7 22. 7 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 61. 1 65. 3 73. 8 70.6 71. 3 72. 2 72. 7 72. 5 73.4 73. 8 74.4 74.9 75.4 76.8 78. 2 78.4 1 The total of wage and salar y disbursem snts and oth er labor incc me differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in pthat it exelu<ies employer contributions for social insui ance and the excess of wa? e accruals ov er wage disbiirsements. 2 Consists of emp>loyer contriltmtions to p rivate pensic n, health, aiid welfare funds; workmen's c ompensatiorL; directors' f ees; and a fe^v other mino r items. 1 With inventory valuation an d capital con sumption ac justments. « With capital cor sumption ac justment. 18. 1 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21. 6 21. 0 22.4 23.5 23. 2 23. 4 23. 3 23. 3 23.4 22. 7 23.4 23.2 23.6 24. 0 24. 3 24. 5 24. 9 Dividends 22.6 22. 9 23. 0 24. 6 27. 8 30. 8 32. 1 35. 1 32.9 33.3 33.0 33. 4 33. 9 35. 9 35. 2 35.4 35.6 36. 1 36. 5 40. 5 37. 0 Personal Transfer interest payincome ments5 55. 9 64. 3 69. 3 74. 6 84. 1 101.4 110. 7 123.0 116. 7 117. 9 119.3 120.0 120.7 121. 5 123.0 125.2 126.9 127.8 128.7 128.7 129.6 66.5 79. 9 94. 1 104.1 118. 9 140. 3 175. 2 191. 3 185.3 189.2 191.3 188.7 187. 1 186.8 191. 3 192. 9 192.9 194.4 197.3 198.0 199.9 Less: PerNonsonal confarm tributions for social personal6 insurance income 26.3 28.0 30.8 34.2 42.2 47. 6 50. 0 54.9 53. 1 53. 4 53. 7 54. 1 54.4 54.3 54. 9 55.2 55. 5 55.9 56.7 57.3 59.2 725.8 780. 7 838.0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 117. 3 1, 213. 4 1, 340. 0 1, 284. 4 1, 298. 6 1, 310. 1 1, 317. 3 1, 323. 3 1, 326. 6 1, 342. 5 1, 351. 8 1, 360. 8 1, 372. 7 1, 388. 6 1, 403. 4 1, 406. 4 * Consists niainly of soc al insurance benefits, dir ect relief, and v eterans paynaents. 6 Personal iricome exelus veoffarmpr oprietors' in<jome, farm wages, farm other lgibor income, md agricultujal net intereSt. Source: Dep artment of (Commerce, B ureau of Eccmomic Analysis DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income increased slightly in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) —PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1968 1976 1969 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less: Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals : Disposable personal income Less: Personal out-1 lays Per (;apita dispc>sable persona I income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Bil lions of d ollars 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973. 1974 1975. __ 1976 685.2 745.8 801.3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 153. 3 1, 249. 7 1, 375. 3 1975: I_ 1 203. 1 II. __ 1 230. 3 III__ 1 265. 5 IV__ 1 299. 7 1976:I___. 1 331. 3 II___ 1 362.0 III__ 1 386. 0 W_._ 1, 421. 7 1 97. 1 588. 1 550. 1 630.4 115.4 595. 3 115. 3 685. 9 635.4 742. 8 116. 3 685. 5 141. 2 801. 3 751. 9 150. 8 901. 7 831.3 982. 9 170. 4 910.7 168.8 1, 080. 9 996. 9 193.6 1, 181. 7 1, 105. 2 179. 3 142. 2 174.0 179.8 183.8 189. 5 195. 8 205. 3 1, 023. 8 1, 088. 2 1, 091. 5 1, 119. 9 1, 147. 6 1, 172. 5 1, 190. 2 1, 216. 5 Population (thousands) 2 Dol lars 38.1 35. 1 50.6 57.3 49.4 70. 3 72.2 84.0 76.5 2,930 3, 111 3,348 3,588 3,837 4,285 4, 639 5,062 5,493 3,464 3,515 3,619 3,714 3,837 4, 062 3,968 4, 007 4, 140 2,670 2,860 3,020 3, 227 3, 510 3,849 4,188 4, 558 5,019 3, 156 3,234 3,265 3,342 3, 510 3,648 3,582 3,608 3,783 Seas onally ad; usted ann ual rates 956. 7 67. 2 4,809 3,889 983. 6 104. 5 5, 102 4, 078 1, Oil. 1 80. 5 5, 105 4, 009 1, 036. 2 83.7 5,227 4, 049 1, 068. 0 5,347 79. 5 4, 103 1, 089. 6 82.9 5, 455 4, 143 1, 114. 3 75.8 4, 142 5,526 1, 148. 6 67.8 5,637 4,168 4, 383 4, 503 4,618 4, 724 4,863 4, 954 5,054 5,199 3, 545 3,599 3,626 3,659 3,731 3,762 3,788 3,845 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to 2business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are ior middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. 1972 dollars Per cap>ita per- i Percent Saving sonal c<;>nsump- change real as pertion exp enditures inper cent of capita disposdisposable perable 1972 Current sonal perdollars dollars income sonal income 1. 5 6.5 5.6 7.4 5. 9 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.8 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.3 7. 7 — 2. 3 1. 0 3. 3 6. 5 -3.4 20.9 -6.6 4. 1 5. 4 6.6 9.6 7.4 7.5 6.9 4.0 — .1 2.5 7. 1 6.4 5.6 200, 706 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211, 901 213, 540 215, 118 212, 897 213, 278 213, 805 214, 245 214, 599 214, 926 215, 355 215, 805 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME Farm income decreased again in the fourth quarter. Both excluding and including inventory change the decline was $1.5 billion. BtLUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BULIONS OF DOLURS* (RATIO SCALE) 120 120 100 100 80 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME \ 60 60 40 40 % \ NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE \_ I 20 f 20 10 10 1968 1969 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1970 1971 1972 SOUKC& DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1973 1974 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona 1 income received Lncome re ceived fro m f armin g by tota farm po pulation Realize3d gross Net inc ome per Nettx> farm farm incl uding net3 ators oper Casti receipts from inventory change Period inarketing s From From From Produc- Exclud- Includ1 all farm nonfarm Total tion ex- ing net ing net Livesources sources sources penses inven- inven- Current 1967 stock Total Crops and tory tory 2 dollars dollars * change change products Dol lars Billioris of dolla rs 13.9 12.9 1969 26. 9 56.3 48.2 4,372 14.2 28. 6 4,766 42. 1 19.6 14.3 14.4 27.4 1970 13. 0 58.6 4,202 14. 2 14.2 50. 5 21. 0 4,790 29. 6 44. 4 13.4 1971 28. 7 15. 3 60.6 52. 9 22. 3 4,263 30. 6 13. 2 5,030 47.4 14.6 34. 4 1972 16. 8 17.6 70. 1 6,504 61. 2 35.7 52. 3 25. 5 17.8 5,288 18.7 48. 6 29. 0 1973 19. 5 95.5 45. 9 41. 1 87. 1 29.9 33.3 11, 727 8,817 65. 6 1974 45. 1 23.5 21. 5 100.2 92. 6 41. 4 9,371 72. 4 27. 8 6,206 26. 5 51. 3 22. 8 22. 7 45. 5 1975 98. 2 42. 9 5,482 89.6 22. 7 9, 100 46. 7 75. 5 25. 6 44. 0 20.0 24. 0 1976* 104.2 94.8 47.0 80,9 7,920 4, 500 47.8 23. 3 22.0 88, 4 1975: I. 80. 0 36.3 43. 7 15. 0 6,590 4, 070 73. 4 18. 5 II 99.6 43,9 23. 5 24. 8 8,830 47. 2 5, 380 91. 1 76. 1 105. 2 96. 5 45. 0 III.... 51.5 28. 4 76.8 30.0 10, 680 6,320 99. 6 IV.... 90. 8 46. 4 44. 4 23.9 75. 7 29. 1 10, 360 6,060 101.5 92. 4 1976: I 46. 6 22. 5 45. 8 22. 5 8, 100 79.0 4,710 II 111. 1 49. 6 52.2 82. 5 9, 210 101. 8 28.6 25. 6 5,300 47. 2 103. 3 93. 8 21. 8 46.6 81. 5 7,490 III.... 20.8 4,230 44. 5 100. 9 6, 950 91.3 20. 3 IV* 46. 8 80.6 19.3 3,860 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory oi crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. s Based on Census of Agriculture definition ol a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 84-362 «— 77- 4 Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by fanners for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Pretax profits with and without inventory valuation adjustment each rose 29 percent from 1975 to 1976, according to revised estimates. After-tax profits were up 28 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOtLARS 40 40 1968 1976 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Bi] lions of d ollars; q\aarterly data at £seasonal!;Y Profil ,s (before tax) wit!i invent* Dry valu*ition adjustn ient l Domes5 tic indu stries N onfinanc ial Period Total * WholeManu- sale Total Finan3 facTotal cial and turretail ing trade 75.9 67.4 41. 6 1966 78.6 8. 5 8.0 1967 72.6 37. 9 75.6 9.0 63. 6 8.9 82. 1 41.2 1968 78. 9 10.4 68. 5 10. 1 74.2 62. 9 1969 77. 9 11.3 36.8 10. 1 1970__ 66.4 62,6 50. 1 27. 1 9.4 12.6 58.2 1971 72.4 32.4 76.9 14. 1 11.7 1972 84.7 69. 3 89.6 15. 4 40. 6 13. 3 74. 1 44. 1 1973 97. 2 90. 4 14. 7 16, 2 1974 ,___ 76.7 14. 1 62. 6 12. 4 87. 8 36. 9 84. 1 1975 ... 103.1 12. 9 97.0 46. 4 20.9 133.2 125. 9 14. 3 111. 5 1976* 64.8 72. 1 1975:1 77.7 58. 2 29. 7 14. 5 13. 9 II 91. 7 97. 9 12. 5 79. 2 43. 5 19. 6 III 111. 4 117. 9 12. 1 24.4 99. 3 57. 0 IV 119. 1 112.7 12.9 99. 8 55.3 25.0 121. 9 129.6 14. 0 107.9 61. 2 29. 0 1976: I II 125. 0 131. 8 13.8 111.2 26. 6 66. 4 III 130. 5 14.4 116.0 137. 6 67.2 28.8 IV ^ * See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. J Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 adjusted annual rates] Pro fits after tax Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 80.7 77.3 85.6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 127. 6 114.5 147.8 94. 2 105. 8 126. 9 131. 3 141. 1 146.2 150.2 33.7 32. 5 39.4 39.7 34.5 37.7 41. 5 48. 7 52. 4 49. 2 64.3 40. 2 44. 8 54. 8 57.2 61.4 63. 5 65. 1 47. 1 44.9 46.2 43. 8 37. 0 44. 3 54. 6 67. 1 75. 2 65.3 83.5 54. 0 61. 0 72. 1 74. 1 79. 7 82. 7 85. 1 19.4 20, 1 21.9 22. 6 22. 9 23. 0 24. 6 27. 8 30. 8 32. 1 35. 1 31. 7 31. 9 32. 6 32.2 33. 1 34.4 35.4 37. 7 27. 6 24. 7 24. 2 21.2 14. 1 21, 3 30.0 39. 3 44.4 33.2 48. 4 22. 3 29. 1 39. 5 41.9 46.6 48. 3 49.7 TT_ * Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment — 2. 1 -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 — 5. 1 — 5. 0 -6.6 -18.6 — 39. 8 — 11.4 — 14 6 -16.5 -7.8 -9.0 -12. 3 — 11. 5 — 14. 4 — 12.6 — 20. 0 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Business fixed investment rose at an annual rate of $2.6 billion in the Fourth quarter compared to a rise of $5.1 billion in the third quarter. Residential outlays rose $6.6 billion, a larger increase than in the 3 preceding quarters of 1976. Inventory investment at $1."3[ billion was down $13.4 billion from the third quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE) . HUJONS OF DOLLARS* JRATIO SCALE) 300 120j——, GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC iNVESTMENT- -NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 100 260 220 PRODUCERS' | DURABLE EQUIPMENT 180 140 -' \ STRUCTURES I I I I 40 I I I I I i i i BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* -40 1972 1975 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOU8C& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresidential fixed investmf mt Period 1966 1967 -. 1968 1969 1970 1971 __ 1972___ 1973 ... 1974 1975 _.., _ 1976 1975: I II III IV 1976:1 II III IV. Gross private domestic investment 124.5 120.8 131.5 146. 2 140. 8 160.0 188. 3 220. 0 215. 0 183. 7 239. 6 172.4 164. 4 196.7 201. 4 229.6 239.2 247.0 242.8 Struc tures Total 81.4 82. 1 89. 3 98. 9 100. 5 104. 1 116. 8 136. 0 149. 2 147. 1 160. 0 148. 0 145. 8 146. 1 148. 7 153.4 157.9 163.0 165. 6 Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 29. 2 29. 5 31. 6 35. 7 37.7 39. 3 42. 5 49. 0 54. 1 52. 0 55. 3 53. 1 51. 2 51. 8 52. 1 53. 2 54.9 56.0 57.0 28. 1 28. 2 30.4 34. 3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46. 9 51. 8 49. 8 53.0 50. 9 48. 8 49 6 49. 9 51. 0 52. 5 53.7 54,8 52.2 52.6 57.7 63. 3 62.8 64.7 74.3 87. 0 95. 1 95. 1 104. 7 94.9 94. 6 94. 3 96.6 100.2 103.0 107.0 47.9 48. 0 53. 4 58. 9 58. 1 59. 9 69. 1 80. 1 87. 2 86. 9 95. 9 86. 5 86. 2 86. 7 88. 0 91. 3 94. 1 98. 0 100. 2 Source; Department of Commerce, Bttreaa of Economic Analysis. Prod ucers' dur able equip ment ioa 6 Resid ential fis ed investment Change in business mv entories Total 28.7 28. 6 34. 5 37.9 36.6 49.6 62.0 66. I 55. 1 51.2 67. 7 46. 6 48. 6 52.6 57. 0 61. 3 65.3 68.9 75. 5 Nonfarm structures 27.4 27. 2 33. 1 36. 3 35.1 47. 9 60. 3 64. 3 52. 7 49. 0 65. 1 44. 9 46. 7 50. 2 54. 2 58. 0 62. 9 66. 3 72. 7 Farm structures 0.7 .7 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1. 0 .8 1. 1 .5 .6 1. 0 1. 4 1. 2 .9 1.0 1.2 ducers' durable equipment 0.7 .7 .8 .9 .9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1.3 1. 6 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 4 1. 5 1.5 1.6 1^6 Total 14.3 10. 1 7. 7 9.4 3.8 6. 4 9.4 17.9 10. 7 -14.6 11.9 -22.2 — 30. 0 -2. 0 -4. 3 14.8 16.0 15.1 1.7 Nonfarm 14.5 9.4 7.6 9.2 3. 7 5. 1 8. 8 14. 7 12. 2 -17. 6 11. 9 -25. 6 -31. 2 -4. 2 — 9. 5 12. 7 17. 3 15. 6 2. 2 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 11.3 percent in 1977, according to a survey conducted in late November and December. The rise in spending in 1976 reported in December was 7.5 percent. BiaiONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE} 180 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {RATIO SCALE) 180 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 160 160 140 140 120 120 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 100 100 80 80 NONMANUFACTURING \ .....»*'•"•" 60 ,,..-"~" 6Q .....,..•••-**' MANUFACTURING 40 40 y y _!.. i 20 r 1969 JL . 1970 I 1 t 1972 1971 1973 I I 1974 20 1975 1976 1977 y '$EE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts o f plant and equ ipment proje cts 3 Es.penditure s for plant and equ ipment Mt mufacturi ng Period Total i 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975.. 1976 4 1977 4 .... 1976: I II 79.71 81.21 88.44 99. 74 112. 40 112. 78 121. 23 134,95 114. 72 118. 12 122. 55 III IV4_ 187. 87 1977: I 44 129. 38 II 131. 28 Total Durable goods 31.95 29.99 31. 35 38. 01 46. 01 47.95 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 62 21.84 52. 98 69.58 23. 60 26. 47 49. 21 50. 04 54. 78 21. 63 22. 54 24, 59 56. 23 56. 99 57. 58 25. 23 25. 52 26. 45 N<mmanuf acturing Nondurable goods 16. 15 15.84 15.72 18. 76 23. 39 26. 11 29. 38 S3. 11 27.58 28. 09 30. 20 SI. 00 31.47 SI. 12 Total 6.04 4.93 5. 72 6.03 6.66 7.57 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 18. 71 20. 55 20. 14 22. 44 25.60 13. 63 3. 83 3.83 4.21 6.55 8.24 7. 25 21.91 21.85 21.67 12. 54 12.62 13. 64 4. 03 4. 22 6. 83 6.34 24. 05 24.57 47.76 51.22 57. 09 61. 73 66. 39 64.82 68.25 75.37 1. 89 2. 16 2.42 2. 74 3. 18 3.79 65. 51 67.48 67. 76 71. 64 72. 38 73. 70 1 Excludes agricultural business; reaJ estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by fanners, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. * Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 10 Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munication tion ties 3. 97 4*41 7. 25 6. 82 10. 10 10. 77 11. 89 12. 85 13.96 12.74 Commercial and other 2 16. 59 18. 05 20. 07 21. 40 22.05 20.60 20.96 Manufacturing Public utilities 29. 18 28. 00 35.21 47.57 52. 49 48. 24 17. 20 22. 22 28. 60 38. 13 45. 74 34. 50 11. 64 12.77 13. 22 3. 43 8. 56 7.54 38. 54 20. 68 20.94 20. 99 36. 73 37. 26 8 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. < Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business in October-December 1976. NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals. Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for systematic biases in expectations data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The seasonally adjusted civilian labor force decreased 444,000 in January. Employment increased 117,000 in January and unemployment declined 561,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 100 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 100 19.69 1970 1971 1974 1973 1972 1975 1976 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period Noninstitutional population 1977 COUNCIL OF ICONOMIC ADVISERS Civilian employment [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over] C ivilian e mploymerit Unempl oyment Total labor Nonagri cultural Unem- force Civilian 15 ploy- (includ- labor AgriPart-time Total weeks Total ment ing force culand econPnfal JL o vai for Armed tural over nomic l Forces) reasons 4,840 88, 991 86, 542 81, 702 3,472 78, 230 2,408 4,840 1,158 4,304 91, 040 88, 714 84, 409 3,452 80, 957 812 4,304 2,311 5,076 93, 240 91, Oil 85, 935 3,492 82, 443 937 2,709 5,076 7,830 94, 793 92, 613 84, 783 3,380 81, 403 3,490 7,830 2,483 7,288 96, 917 94, 773 87, 485 3,297 84, 188 3,272 7,288 2,339 Seas(anally adj usted Labor force participation rate (per-2 cent) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 145, 148, 150, 153, 156, 1976: Jan__ Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June. July. Aug_ Sept. Oct.. Nov. Dec_ 154, 915 155, 106 155, 325 155, 516 155, 711 155, 925 156, 142 156, 367 156, 595 156, 788 157, 006 157, 176 84, 491 84, 764 85, 588 86, 584 87, 278 88, 460 89, 608 89, 367 87, 949 88, 697 88, 542 88, 494 8, 174 8,033 7,525 6,890 6,304 7,655 7,577 7,323 7,026 6,833 7,095 7,022 95, 613 95, 743 96, 009 96, 520 96, 693 96, 841 97, 329 97, 498 97, 387 97, 449 98, 020 98, 106 93, 473 93, 597 93, 862 94, 376 94, 551 94, 704 95, 189 95, 351 95, 242 95, 302 95, 871 95, 960 86, 226 86, 471 86, 845 87, 329 87, 640 87, 533 87, 783 87, 834 87, 794 87, 738 88, 220 88, 441 3,305 3, 198 3,215 3,398 3,332 3,313 3,333 3,372 3,278 3,310 3,248 3,257 82, 921 83, 273 83, 630 83, 931 84, 308 84, 220 84, 450 84, 462 84, 516 84, 428 84, 972 85, 184 3,336 3,201 3,173 3,194 3,287 3, 150 3, 136 3, 178 3,376 3,448 3,545 3,454 7,247 7,126 7,017 7,047 6,911 7,171 7,406 7,517 7,448 7,564 7,651 7,519 2, 781 2,531 2,325 2,103 2,042 2,173 2,247 2,341 2,311 2,360 2,517 2,514 61.7 61.7 61.8 62. 1 62. 1 62.1 62.3 62.4 62.2 62.2 62.4 62.4 1977: Jan.. 157, 381 86, 856 7,848 97, 649 95,516 88, 558 3,090 85, 468 3,320 6,958 2,283 62.0 1 81, 702 84, 409 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 TJ aadjusted 775 263 827 449 048 Persons at work in nonagrieultural industries. * Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. 61. 0 61.4 61.8 61.8 62. 1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped 0.5 percentage point to 7.3 percent in January. Unemployment rates for most demographic groups were lower in January than in December. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE W GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unenriploymeiit rate (j>ercent of civiliani labor fo rce in gr oup) Total (all civilian workers) Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1976: Jan Feb „ Mar Apr. 5.6 4.9 5. 6 8. 5 7.7 7.8 7.6 7. 5 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1977: Jan „ 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.3 By sex and a ge Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over over 4.0 3. 2 3. 8 6. 7 5. 9 ^ Q ^ & 5 6 K K 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 9 1 9 1 2 3 6.2 5.6 5.4 48 5. 5 8.0 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.3 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.4 6.9 16.2 14. 5 16.0 19.9 19.0 19.4 19. 1 19.0 19. 3 18.5 18.4 18.2 19.6 18. 8 19. 0 19.2 19.0 IS. 7 1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 I3y select ed group»s By color White 5.0 4.3 5.0 7.8 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.8 6. 8 6.7 6. 8 7. 1 7. 1 7.2 7.2 7. 3 7.1 a7 ExpeFullBlack rienced wage Housetime and hold and other salary heads workers workers 10.0 8.9 9.9 13. 9 13. 1 13.2 13. 6 12.6 13.0 12.3 13.4 12.9 13. 6 12. 8 13. 4 13. 5 13.4 12.5 5.3 4.5 5.3 8.2 7.3 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.1 7. 1 7. 2 7.4 7. 5 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.0 3.3 2.9 3.3 5.8 5. 1 5.2 5.0 5.0 4,8 4.9 5. 1 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 48 5.1 4,3 5.1 8.1 7.3 7.3 7. 1 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.2 7. 3 Parttime workers 8.6 7.9 6.0 5.2 10.3 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.6 10.1 9.1 8.3 R4 8.1 8.1 ae 9.2 10. 6 10. 0 7.5 7.5 7,6 7.6 10. 3 10. 5 &7 10.2 7. 5 Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force time lost (per-l cent) 9.6 9.8 6, 1 8. 1 8. 1 7.9 ai 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.0 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The seasonally adjusted decline in unemployment of 561,000 in January was accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of the unemployed who are job losers and an increase among new entrants and reentrants to the labor force. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS 20 20 JOB LEAVERS sv&**<*&<?*£ NEW ENTRANTS 1974 i i i t ..I., i i i i i i i i i i ! i i i i t 1975 1976 1977 1974 1975 1976 1977 *5EASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCEi DEPARTMENT Or LABOR COUNQt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted! Perceiit distrib ution of unem- State programs Insured Percer t distribution of unemunem- Special ployment by durati ployment >y reasoii * ployunemUnemployment, ployall ment 27 Insured Period ment Less regular benefitJ 5-14 15-26 Initial unemweeks Job Reen- New Job (thouen- than 5 proclaims ploy- claims grams and sands) losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks * (unadover HI cut (unad- justed) justed) Weeskly aver age, thou sands 11.6 1,848 12. 3 1972261 2, 192 13.9 45.9 30.1 43. 2 29.8 4,840 13.1 1,793 1973 4,304 246 sa? 15.7 30.7 14. 9 51.0 30. 1 11. 0 7.8 1,632 7.3 2,262 1974, 2,558 363 50.6 31.0 11. 1 13. 3 14.9 28.4 5,076 43.4 15. 2 3,992 4,943 10.4 31.3 16. 5 478 1, 173 10.4 37.0 1975 23.8 55.4 7,830 18. 3 2,968 382 3,822 13.8 1, 152 12. 1 12.2 38. 3 26.0 29. 6 1976' 7,288 49.8 4, 962 21.6 2,977 1,482 35.2 27. 6 15. 6 1976:.Ian,, 7,247 365 11.6 11. 9 49. 8 26. 6 22. 1 2,829 4,721 37.4 26. 8 13. 7 1,428 12. 0 12. 0 26.4 Feb.. 7, 126 49. 5 340 21. 2 2,743 12. 7 27. 9 345 4,366 38. 3 Mar-_ 7, 017 1,339 12. 3 26. 7 49. 8 11. 1 19. 8 2,727 3,917 1, 125 42.7 10. 2 27. 2 364 12. 6 12.0 26.2 Apr,_ 7,047 49. 2 12.5 17.5 2,825 3,564 392 993 25.2 12. 2 41.0 29. 0 12. 7 49. 9 May_ 6,911 17. 9 2,916 12. 7 3,457 1, 145 402 11.7 31. 1 June. 7, 171 38. 4 12. 6 25. 5 50. 3 16. 4 3,045 411 3,642 10.7 28. 8 14. 6 1,379 40. 3 25.4 13. 0 July- 7,406 50. 9 15. 9 3, 183 14. 7 31.8 3,446 1,327 12.4 416 12. 9 25.3 37. 5 49.3 Aug— 7,517 32. 0 14. 7 15. 7 421 3, 235 3,260 986 12. 3 37. 6 7,448 12. 5 Sept49. 7 25. 5 421 3, 217 14. 2 16. 5 3,263 30.8 853 38.4 11. 9 12. 5 Oct.,- 7, 564 25.6 50. 0 17. 1 3, 160 3,453 862 388 15. 3 12.0 35. 5 32. 1 Nov.. 7,651 11. 2 49. 8 27.0 18. 2 2,969 361 3, 884 14. 9 36.4 903 30. 5 Dec"- 7,519 11. 1 26.2 1Z6 50. 0 17. 5 2,781 29.2 14. 6 4, 440 823 409 38.7 1977: Jan", 6,958 12,9 45. 6 13. 2 28.3 i- * * Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. * Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (0CFE), and railroad (KK) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special tmemployment assistance). * FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data for State programs revised; Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 231,000 in January. The largest January gains were in services (86,000), trade (80,000), and durable goods manufacturing (61,000). MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 18 80 ALL NONAGF^CULTURAL ESTABLISh1MENTS ^—^ 1 __ WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE m r "! ——^V GOVERNMENT 70 -—M ...,.••»»-"•" 14 SERVICES 12 60 SERVICE-P ADDUCING INDUSTRIES m 22 ^ m. ***** MANUFACTURING 50 2Q 40 18 IpLUj 30 — GOOD&-P ADDUCING — INDUSJTRIES m lllttlMMMMm«lM** ,_,x._ 20 • ^ *\ 1 1 M 1 ! 1 1 M 1973 , M I.I 1 I M 1 1 1 1974 1 MMI, 1975 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION ,,,,, !,,,,» 1 1976 1 j I I I I I ! I t|i 1977 1973 1974 1975 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; DEPARTMENT Of LABOR 1976 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] C»oods-pr<)ducing i ndustrie 3 Period Total nonagrieultural employ- Total 2 ment 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976* 1976: Jan__ Feb.Mar,Apr May_ June« JulyAug_. Sept.. Oet«_ Nov.. Dec*. 1977: Jan*. 73, 714 76, 896 78, 413 77, 051 79, 441 78, 406 78, 635 78, 980 79, 312 79, 319 79, 368 79, 513 79, 618 79, 918 79, 819 80, 106 80, 322 80, 553 Contract construction Service-pi oducing Industrie3S Trans- Whole- Finance, Gover nment insurporta- sale ance, tion and Non- Total State and and Services retail Total Durable durable Federal and real public goods goods trade local utilities estate Mainufactui *ing 23, 546 3,831 19, 090 24, 727 4,015 20, 068 24, 697 3,957 20, 046 22, 603 3,512 18, 347 23, 332 3,594 18, 956 23, 066 3,595 18, 704 23, 112 3, 571 18, 774 23, 248 3, 578 18, 897 23, 403 3,620 19, 008 23, 381 3,605 19, 000 23, 357 3, 592 18, 984 23, 344 3,608 18, 945 23, 310 3, 579 18, 979 23, 463 3, 565 19, 100 23, 323 3,582 18, 941 23, 489 3,619 19, 065 23, 514 3,606 19, 100 23, 549 3, 541 19, 194 11, 006 11, 839 11,895 10, 679 11, 026 10, 810 10, 857 10, 956 11,016 11, 062 11, 059 11, 034 11, 083 11, 146 11, 018 11, 128 11, 163 11, 224 8,084 8,229 8, 151 7,668 7,930 7,894 7,917 7, 941 7,992 7, 938 7,925 7,911 7,896 7,954 7,923 7,937 7,937 7,970 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 50, 167 52, 169 53, 715 54, 448 56, 109 55, 340 55, 523 55, 732 55, 909 55, 938 56, Oil 56, 169 56, 308 56, 455 56, 496 56, 617 56, 808 57, 004 4,517 4,644 4,696 4,498 4,508 4,489 4, 504 4, 507 4,510 4,503 4,482 4, 508 4, 501 4,528 4, 506 4,519 4, 538 4,550 15, 975 16, 674 17, 017 17, 000 17, 694 17, 388 17, 496 17, 592 17, 662 17, 663 17, 664 17, 737 17, 764 17, 839 17, 824 17, 808 17, 895 17, 975 3,943 4,091 4,208 4,223 4,315 4,266 4,266 4,276 4,289 4,282 4,301 4,312 4, 312 4, 338 4,359 4,381 4,402 4,419 12, 392 13, 021 13, 617 14, 006 14, 643 14, 342 14, 397 14, 460 14, 536 14, 567 14, 610 14, 664 14, 751 14, 798 14, 819 14, 873 14, 918 15, 004 2,684 2,663 2,724 2,748 2,733 2,749 2, 742 2,735 2,733 2, 730 2, 728 2, 723 2,732 2,728 2, 730 2,734 2,720 2,739 10, 656 11, 075 11, 453 11, 973 12, 215 12, 106 12, 118 12, 162 12, 179 12, 193 12, 226 12, 225 12, 248 12, 224 12, 258 12, 302 12, 335 12, 317 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. NOTE.—Series revised beginning July 1975. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Averag e gross hourly earnings Aver age weekly wars Total private nonagrieultural l Period 1968 1969 37.8 37. 7 37. 1 37. 0 — 1970 1971. 1972 1973 37. 1 37. 1 1974 1975 1976 » 1970: Jan Feb Apr May June •. — July Aug.. Sept Oct . -._ Nov Dec* 40.7 40. 6 39.8 39. 9 40. 6 40. 7 Overtime 3. 6 3. 6 3. 0 2. 9 3. 5 3. 8 40. 0 39. 4 40. 1 2. 6 36. 4 36.4 40. 4 3. 1 39. 4 40. 3 40. 2 40. 1 2. 6 36. 3 36. 1 36. 1 36. 1 36. 0 36. 1 36.2 36.2 35. 8 1977: Jan» Total 36.6 36. 1 36.2 36. 2 36. 1 Mar Total private nonagricultural * Manufa icturing 40.3 40. 3 40.0 39.7 39. 9 40. 1 40.0 39.7 3.2 3.2 3. 1 3. 1 3. 3 3. 2 $3. 01 3. 19 3. 36 3. 57 3. 81 4. 72 4.75 4.77 4.79 5. 00 4.85 4.88 4.91 4. 92 4. 95 5.00 5.02 3. 0 3.0 2. 9 3. 1 3.2 5.06 3.3 Manufacturing $2.85 3. 04 3. 22 3. 44 3. 67 3. 92 4.22 4. 54 4.87 4. 84 3. 1 Adjusted h ourly earain gs index—t<rtal private nonagricultural ' Percent ch ange from a year sarlier 4 Index, 1<)67=100 Current dollars 4. 08 4. 41 4. 81 5. 19 1967 dollars 3 106.3 113. 3 120. 8 129. 4 102. 0 103. 2 106. 7 110. 0 110. 1 158.6 185.2 172. 7 107. 4 107. 1 108.6 179. 4 107.3 180. 3 181. 1 5. 13 5. 16 183. 3 184.0 107.8 108. 0 108. 1 108. 1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 182. 1 185. 2 5. 21 5. 25 : 5. 29 5. 29 5:34 5.38 187. 2 188. 2 189.4 190. 4 108.8 5.41 192. 3 109.5 186. 4 109.2 109. 3 1967 dollars 6.3 6.6 6. 6 7.1 6.5 6.4 8.2 103. 9 137. 8 146. 6 5. 04 5.08 5. 08 Current dollars .- .'• 2.7 3. 1 .1 — 2. 5 —.3 7.2 1.4 8. 0 7.7 7.2 7. 6 7.7 7. 1 . • 1. 2 .7 8. 9 . : 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.O 1.4 i.s 1. 1 1.7 '7.3 1. 4r 1. & 7.0 7. 1 6.8 . 1.5 1. & 6. 7 6.9 2iO 7.2 2.0 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production of nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total pri vate nonagricuItural l Period Current dollars 1968 1969 1970 . 1971 — 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976" 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr— May June July Aug P«pt Oct_ Nov. Deo" 1977: Jan* : 1967 dollars * Manufacturing . $107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 127. 28 136. 16 145. 43 154. 45 163. 89 176. 29 $103. 39 104. 38 102. 72 104.93 108.67 109. 26 104. 57 101. 67 103.40 $122. 51 208. 12 222. 51 235. 69 249. 08 265. 35 284. 56 171. 81 172. 90 172. 67 172. 92 175. 69 175.09 176. 17 177. 25 202.00 203. 11 204.72 281. 25 281. 62 272. 88 17a 70 181. 00 181.72 102. 82 103.35 102. 96 102.68 103. 65 102,87 103. 02 103. 17 102. 74 103. 29 104, 32 104.32 210. 00 210.01 211.07 214. 13 215. 20 284. 19 286.46 286.71 284.83 276. 79 289. 45 292.09 292.06 181. 15 103.16 214.78 279. 84 177. 12 Retail trade 5; Current dollars Current dollar:3 129. 51 isa 73 142.44 154. 69 166. 06 176. 40 189...51 200. 15 206. 74 207j 43 208. 92 ' Also Includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. " Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and tor overtime in mano* Cnrrent dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consnmer price index. «Monthly changes based on Indexes to two decimal places. * Includes eating and drinking places. 84-362 «—77 3 Contract construction $164. 49 181. 54 195. 45 211.67 283. 12 Percent ch.ange from a. year earlier, total pri srate non< . agriciiltural8 $74.95 78. 66 82. 47 86.61 90. 99 95. 57 101. 04 108. 22 113.96 5.8 6.4 4. 2 1967 . dollars 1. 5 1. 0— 1. -6- 2. 2 6. 5 7.0 6.8 6.2 6. 1 7.6 3. 6 .5 — 4.3 — 2.8 1:7 111.76 &2 11L 76 8. 1 • 11L 71 8. 1 7; 5 113. 43 8.7 113. 02 112. 29 '.- .. 7..S 113. 60 7. 9 114.24 ,. 7.0 6.6 , 115. 56 •115.84 6.9 116. 75 6.5 118. 13 6.7 1.3 1. 7 1.9 1.3 2.4 1. 8 2. 3 1.3 1. 0 1.5 3,5 1.8 117. 55 5.4 .2 ' Based on unadjusted data. Nora.—Series revised beginning July 1975, except seasonally aft. justed data In 1967 dollars revised beginning 1872. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hours of aU 2 pers ons Outi>Ut» Output >er hour of alls>ersons Compesnsation perliour3 Unit labor CO sts Implicjit price defla tor* Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private Total Private nonnonprinonnonnonprinonpriprivate private private vate vate farm business farm, business farm farm vate farm farm business business business business business business business business business business Period 1967== 100; quai-terly datj\ season;illy adjust;ed ioas 100.0 105.4 108.6 9a 1 100.3 100. 0 101.7 1045 96.8 100.0 100.0 102.1 105.3 947 97.8 100.0 103.3 103.7 107.4 110.3 117.9 125.0 121. 1 102.8 102.3 106.0 110.1 110.6 1040 1045 107. 8 - 107.4 110.3 117.6 124.5 120.8 - 118.1 126.1 118. 0 12a2 ioa3 114.2 116.7 120.1 121.2 1144 92.9 92. 6 100.0 105.1 - 1970 1971 1972— 1973 1974 1975 1976" 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 9ao 1975: I II III IV 1976: I II ... Ill IV*. 124.2 125. 8 12&8 127.8 9ai na 6 119. 9 121. 3 124 3 126.0 126.9 127.8 9a2 100. 0 103.2 103. 1 88.4 947 100.0 107.6 115. 1 89.1 945 100.0 107.3 1142 93.4 96.8 100.0 104 1 111.0 96.4 100.0 123.3 131.5 13a9 150.3 1643 121.9 129.9 137.4 14a 1 162.0 nai nai 95.7 9ai 942 97.2 100.0 103.9 108.8 94 1 96.8 100.0 1040 108.7 122.2 125.5 133.0 150.8 113.9 118.9 123. 2 130.3 143. 8 1140 119. 2 122.9 ioa9 110.9 107.6 112.2 112.7 na9 113.1 109.2 103.2 106.3 109.5 111.4 107.5 105.9 107.9 110.7 111.5 116.4 109.4 1140 180.2 195.0 177.7 191.8 161.6 167.4 162.4 168.2 157.5 1646 156.4 1640 105.7 1049 105.7 107.0 107.9 ioai ioao 107.5 109.2 111.2 113.6 113.3 176.1 178.8 181.2 185. 1 173.1 176.2 179.2 182.3 162.9 160.7 159.5 163.4 163.3 161.5 160.6 164 1 1545 155.9 isa4 160.9 1540 155.0 157.0 159. 3 107.7 108.3 110.4 110.6 110.6 111.4 115.3 116.2 117. 1 117. 5 189. 8 186.5 190.2 19&5 197. 1 1647 166.1 165.5 166.9 16a7 171.8 161.7 163. 8 165.4 167.6 161.0 162.5 1648 167.4 1.6 3.2 2.9 3.9 47 1.3 2.9 3.3 40 45 47 44 ioa3 ioa7 ioa7 ioa9 109.1 111.6 111. 1 112.6 113.9 1147 1147 i9ao 196.6 200.8 121.9 125.2 132.9 150.4 i6ao 170.9 i2ao i4ao Perceiit change ; quarterlyr data at sseasonal] y adjuste*1 annual rates 7.0 5.5 2.0 5.1 7.1 -.9 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.2 2.3 3.3 .-3 3.3 2.5 1.9 3.1 2.3 -.3 1.7 2.7 as -1.1 2.7 6.9 -1.6 5.9 -3.0 -3.1 ao ae a9 ;4 -1.2 -.3 3.7 43 .4 -a4 1.7 -3.5 -2.3 6.8 -2.6 7.0 -42 2.3 -43 2.7 2.1 45 1975: III Ill IV -11.2 -11.3 7.9 12.1 45 -12.5 -2.8 3.2 48 — 12.2 -3.6 2.2 6.5 1.4 12. 1 1976: I II Ill IV» 10.2 5.5 2.9 10.5 5.4 2.7 2.2 ,0 L7 45 .6 .3 2.8 1965 1966.... 1967 1968 1969 1970. 1971 1972 1973 1974 .... ..... 1975 1976" ao ae a9 12.3 3.6 a2 ao 1.9 5.4 3.0 ao 2.7 —; 4 .0 2.1 3.2 — 2 a2 7.0 5.6 7.6 7.0 ;2 7.2 3.4 6.1 5.8 7.3 6.5 a2 3.7 as 41 ae 0.1 3.4 9.3 5.8 7.8 9.4 13.2 as a9 ae as as 2.7 ao ia4 1.8 42 9.7 8.2 9.7 7.9 7.5 3.6 7.7 3,6 9.5 46 10.1 49 as 12.9 6.2 5.6 11.6 7.2 7.2 7.1 11.3 -5.2 -3.0 10.1 10.4 -42 -2.2 9.0 11.3 -1.2 1.0 11.9 9.6 -1.8 a5 ae 13.5 2.6 5.3 6.2 7.3 3.2 2.9 1.5 5.7 48 2.7 —.1 10.7 6.9 7.6 9.4 8.2 7.2 7.6 3.2 3.5 45 7.3 3.2 43 7.7 as 2.1 5.2 43 3.6 5.8 7 3.2 2.9 1.9 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 3 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours oi proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on8 establishment data. Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, end supplemental payments for the self-employed. 16 a9 2.9 ao ae a2 5.7 as a9 a7 ae a4 a2 2.7 a2 ae 5.8 10.3 49 45 3.1 41 11.0 6.6 a9 5.5 a6 * Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product, NOTE,—Series revised. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here* Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 1.0 percent in January, reflecting production losses due to extremely cold weather and natural gas shortages. Output increased by 0.8 percent in December and by 1,0 percent in November. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODIICTION TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 160 140 140 120 A,/-' 100 l i n t Itmi 1973 t f 111 f 11 m 1974 UTIUT IES "*T%'V > % MINING *' 1976 1975 * ^/y^] ^AV^\ ~^> k/ 120 **W%' %r«*<v*~"! \ 1977 100 160 rl t 1 1 I M I I 1 M 11 1 t | 1 1 I M M t 1 1 1 ! ! 1 11 1 1 M M 11 ! M M ! ( t t 1f ! 1t 11 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION PERCENT (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 140 **•»•*•+ % _^—\v» \ . J*\ 90 yV 80 120 70 100 1 1 1 t i t 11 1 1 1 n 11 I I 11 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1973 1977 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOAXD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 proportion 1971 _ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9 1976: Jan.... Feb.Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 9 1977: Jan 9 Total iiidustrial prodtiction Percent Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier 100. 00 109.6 119. 7 129. 8 129.3 117.8 129.8 125.7 _ 127.3 128. 1 128.4 129.6 130. 1 130. 7 131. 3 130.8 130.4 131.7 132.8 131. 5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indus try prodiiiction ind exes, 196 7=100 M anufactun ng Total Durable Nondurable 87.95 108.2 118. 9 129.8 129.4 116. 3 129.4 125. 2 127. 0 127. 9 128. 5 129. 6 130.2 131.0 131.6 130.7 129.9 131. 5 132.5 130.9 61.98 102.4 113.7 127. 1 125.7 109.3 121.4 115. 8 117.9 119.0 120.1 121.7 122. 3 124.2 125. 1 122.4 121.5 123. 7 124. 8 122. 8 S5.97 Mining 6.36 Utilities Manuf aeturing <capacity \itilization rate, p ercent * Federal Reserve 2 serie> s WharComTotal ton merce3 Matemanuseries series 2 rials facturing 5.69 78.0 130.5 86.4 109.8 83. 1 116.6 80 83. 1 139.4 88. 0 113.1 91.8 126.5 83 87.5 145.4 92. 4 114.7 97.1 133.8 86 84.2 143. 7 87.7 93.0 115. 3 134.6 83 73. 6 73.6 80.4 112. 8 146. 0 126.4 77 80. 1 151.5 80.3 114. 1 87.5 140.9 152. 0 138.4 113.6 152. 5 140.2 112.7 79.0 79.0 82 151. 4 86.4 113. 9 140. 7 150.8 113.5 140.7 153.0 113. 0 140.9 80.2 151.2 114.4 82 141. 3 80.6 87.8 150.8 141. 1 112.5 140.9 114. 4 151. 3 80.8 150. 1 115.7 80 142.6 81.3 88.2 151.2 142. 2 116. 7 142.8 151. 9 116. 2 155.2 80.5 116. 0 80. 1 87.7 143. 6 158.1 112. 3 142.6 1 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Department of Output as percent of capacity. f Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wbarton School of Finance. uarterly data. * Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. 1.7 9.2 8.4 —.4 — 8. 9 10.2 9. 1 13. 0 14. 7 14. 0 14.0 11.8 10.4 8.5 7. 1 6. 7 6. 6 6. 8 4. 6 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seaeonally adjusted] Proclucts Final products Equii>ment Co]asumer go ods Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods 7.89 19. 79 107.7 115.0 110.1 106.1 118.8 113.1 133.8 120.6 146.2 125.6 126.3 135.3 125. 1 121.4 1349 141.5 132.5 1347 133.9 137.9 1344 140.4 141. 1 134 0 143.2 135.1 144.2 135. 1 1348 141.8 1349 143. 7 135. 3 138.4 139.4 135.8 136.9 144.5 138. 1 150. 5 138.0 143. 5 Total 1967 proportion 1969—— — 1970 . — 1971 — 1972 . . 1973. ... — 1974 — ... ..1975__ ... — 1976 * . —-. 1976: Jan .,... Feb....Mar . . .. Apr ... ... May . ..._.; June— ~ July . . Aug . Sept . Oct „ Nov. . ... Dec * 1977: Jan » 47.82 109.6 105.3 106.3 115. 7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.3 123.9 125.3 126.4 126.3 127.3 127.6 127.6 128. 3 127.4 127.4 129.7 131.7 130.4 27.68 109.8 109.0 114. 7 1244 131.5 128.9 124.0 136. 8 133. 1 134.9 136. 1 136. 1 137.4 137.8 136.8 137.5 136.2 136. 9 139. 1 141.6 139.5 Internicdiate proclucts Total Business Total 20. 14 109. 3 100. 1 947 103.8 1145 120.0 110.2 1143 111.2 112. 1 112.9 112.9 113. 5 113.8 1149 115.7 115.2 1144 116.8 118. 0 117. 9 IS. 68 112. 5 107.0 1041 118.0 1342 142.4 128.2 135.9 13LO 132.6 1340 134 1 1346 135.0 136.9 137.7 137. 5 135.9 139.6 141.7 140. 9 12.89 112.9 112.9 116, 7 126.5 137,2 135.3 123, 1 136. 9 133. 6 135. 3 1349 1347 135.0 135.9 137.6 137.8 138.7 138.3 139.1 140. 2 140. 1 Supplementary Materials Energy total Construction supplies 6.4$ 112.3 111.0 116.8 128.4 139. 8 134 5 116. 3 132.0 126.8 129. 6 128. 7 128.0 130.9 131.8 133. 1 134 1 134 3 1340 1348 136. 3 135. 6 S9. 29 112. 5 109. 2 111. 3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115. 5 130. 5 125.3 127.3 12. 2S 111. 1 117.0 119.5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 128.9 128.8 127.5 12a6 128.2 129. 3 129.7 128.4 129. 0 128. 6 128. 6 129.6 131. 8 131. 6 m,2 129. 2 130.6 131. 1 132.2 133.0 132.5 131. 6 131. 5 131.8 130,2 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Diirable m anufactu res I Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machin- Electrical machinery 1 Transp ortation 1 equijmient Lumber Motor and prodveTotal hicles ucts and ! parts 112. 6 104 7 96.1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 1044 6.93 107. 9 102. 4 103. 5 112. 1 1247 1242 109.9 123. 1 9. 15 109. 3 104. 4 100.2 116.0 133.7 140. 1 125.1 1344 8.05 111. 9 108. 1 107.7 122. 2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 131.7 9.27 108.4 89. 5 97. 9 108. 2 118. 3 108.7 97.4 110.6 4.60 116.5 92. 3 118. 6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 140.7 107.9 105. 6 113.8 120.8 126.0 116. 2 107.6 125.5 116.6 120. 9 120.2 121. 5 121. 4 1240 124 6 125. 8 126.6 123.5 126.0 126.3 129.0 131, 5 132.9 133. 5 134 0 133.5 135, 0 136.4 136. 8 1341 136.9 138. 6 1247 126. 5 127,8 130. 0 131. 8 132. 0 131.0 135. 3 133. 7 135.0 135.8 136. 1 105.8 109. 0 111. 2 110.6 112. 9 112,6 113.3 115. 0 104.4 1047 113.2 118. 6 126, 7 135. 2 140.8 141.3 144 3 146. 5 148. 5 150. 6 130.2 129. 3 146.2 156.4 123.5 123. 9 121. 1 122.8 123. 0 120.3 124. 6 128. 1 128. 7 130.7 129.8 131. 7 113.3 142. 8 PrimaryY metals Period Total Iron and steel 4. 21 1967 proportion 1969—. — . 1970.__ ..... 1971 1972_ __ 1973 . 1974... . 1975 .... 1976* .. 6.57 113.8 106. 6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 108. 0 1976: Jan ._ Feb Mar . Apr_._ .. May... ..... June July Aug Sept .. Oct.... Nov_, „ _ Dec >.. 103. 9 101. 4 105. 4 113. 2 111. 5 116.9 118. 6 114 1 109.9 106. 8 102.7 9a i 92. 9 100.9 97. 7 103, 5 110.7 110, 0 115. 3 116.2 110. 3 105. 1 103.1 95. 8 98.5 89.8 1977: Jan" , Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemu 18 1 1. 64 Non durable manufac tures ,„. — Appar el products Print- Cheming icals and and Foods pubprodlishing ucts 3. SI 106. 7 101. 4 1047 109.4 117.3 1143 107, 6 125.5 4. 72 107.4 107.0 107. 1 112.7 118. 2 118.2 113.3 120. 6 7. 74 118.4 120. 4 125. 9 143. 6 154 5 159.4 147.3 169,5 8. 75 106. 1 108. 9 112. 8 116.8 120.9 1240 123.4 132. 1 123. 8 128.0 126. 3 126, 1 130. 3 126.8 125.6 123.7 122. 5 126.4 122. 1 120.0 121.0 121.0 122. 0 120. 5 119.7 122. 0 120. 6 120.6 119.2 119.7 121.7 162.9 167. 6 170.6 168. 7 166. 6 170.0 167. 6 170. 4 170.5 170.6 1742 175.4 129.2 130. 8 12R 3 129. 2 131. 2 130. 5 131.8 133. 4 135.7 134.7 135.2 135. 2 I i NEW CONSTRUCTION Private Total new construction expenditures Period Total Total1 _ 949 110.0 124. 1 137.9 138.5 132. 0 144.5 New Federal, State, Other and local 16.3 17.0 18.1 2L7 23.8 243 35. 1 44.9 50.1 40.6 344 46.8 20.8 19.5 iae 19.8 21. 5 24 0 2a o 25.7 29.1 June July Aug _ -_ Sept__ Oct.... _- Nov » Dec* 137. 8 136.7 139. 0 145. 1 144. 5 143. 4 145.4 141. 1 142.0 146. 3 146.8 150. 5 151.6 9ai 52. 1 52. 8 55.2 58.1 58.9 58.8 58.7 57.2 55.4 58.7 63.4 66.4 68. 4 99. 3 102.6 107. 1 106.6 107.2 106.5 104.3 104. 7 108. 7 112.8 116. 4 117. 7 19.8 19.0 20.6 21.0 19.8 19.3 18.7 18.7 19.9 19.7 19.0 19. 0 19. 1 39.9 39.3 41. 1 43.8 442 43,9 45.4 46.9 46.5 48. 8 51. 1 52.7 546 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Kelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. mi 2&1 29.9 30.2 32.5 38.3 39.0 Seasonally adjusted 26. 2 27.6 26.8 28. 0 27.9 29. 1 29. 1 28.4 29. 4 30. 3 30.4 31.0 30.2 743 727 854 1, 010 840 555 602 145.4 165.3 179.5 169.7 167. 9 194 1 sa4 Seasonalh/ adjusted atmual rates 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May CommerTotal value cial and index industrial (1967== floor space 100) (millions of square feet) of dollars 31.9 43.3 54.3 59.7 50.4 46.5 59.4 66.8 80.1 93.9 105.4 100.2 93. 0 108. 0 Commercial and industrial housing units Bil lions 1970. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 "__. Construction contracts * Resi<3 .ential 39. 8 37.4 3a4 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 137 186 170 185 208 205 187 215 186 203 237 186 183 sao 37.9 36.2 38.9 36.8 37.3 37. 6 34.0 34 1 33.9 609 462 496 653 648 657 693 676 654 592 658 596 615 Note.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] £Tew private housing uni bs Units started, by type of striicture Period Total 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 » _ 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 536. 8 1 unit 810.6 812. 9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 9 2-4 units 85.0 84.8 120.3 141.3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 86. 1 5 or more units 571.2 535. 9 780.9 906.2 795. 0 381.6 204.3 287. 7 New priv ate homes Units authorized 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939. 2 1, 280. 5 Units completed 1, 399. 0 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 1, 971. 5 2, 013. 8 1, 691. 7 1, 296. 8 1, 354. 1 Homes sold Vacancy rate for Homes for rental sale at housing end of units period 1 (percent) 2 448 485 656 718 620 501 544 635 222 220 287 409 450 402 378 435 573 679 573 628 540 589 606 640 741 735 703 748 379 384 389 394 400 406 411 406 415 419 431 435 5. 5 5. 3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 Seasonally adjusted armual rates 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug___ _ _ Sept Oct Nov » Dec * 1977: Jan * 1 1,259 1,476 1,426 1,385 1, 435 1,494 1,413 1, 530 1,768 1, 715 1, 706 1,884 1,375 973 1,216 1, 124 1,071 1,091 1, 122 1, 129 1, 172 1, 254 1,269 1,236 1, 331 1,029 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 76 64 80 77 88 75 72 83 106 98 98 123 93 210 196 222 237 256 297 212 275 408 348 372 430 253 1, 147 1,165 1,188 1, 082 1,158 1,150 1,215 1,296 1,504 1,492 1,590 1,514 1,307 1,213 1,299 1,399 1,266 1,360 1,373 1,307 1,401 1, 387 1,326 1,445 1,377 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted housing starts revised beginning 1974. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.3 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business Inventories increased $0.5 billion in December, somewhat less than in November. Business sales rose $7.2 billion (3.7 percent), most of which was in manufacturers* sales. According to the advance survey, retail sales fell 2.0 percent in January, following a 3.9 percent rise in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 100 100 1977 1973 ^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total biisiness l Retail Wholesale Sales2 Period 1971 1972__ 1973 1974 1975 1976* 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr. May June. July. Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec *__ 1977: Jan *> Inven-3 O n 1 r*.r* 2 bales * tories 112, 323 125, 269 ___ 145, 297 166, 771 172, 525 193, 044 181, 647 183, 818 186, 968 190, 224 191, 745 190, 800 193, 700 193, 704 194, 672 194, 261 192, 992 196, 965 204, 192 184, 756 198, 045 227, 926 278, 386 275, 484 299, 391 275, 484 277, 057 279, 008 281, 256 283, 062 285, 693 289, 138 290, 866 293, 308 296, 537 298, 179 298, 941 299, 391 1 2 The term " business" also includes manufacturing Monthly average for year and total for month. 8 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 Inven-3 cj i__ 5 bales * tories rt TVvfral Millions of dollars, seat onally stdjusted 22, 327 29, 695 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 24, 862 32, 817 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 30, 400 38, 302 41, 943 14, 190 27, 754 37, 344 46, 564 44, 815 13, 943 30, 872 36, 583 45, 115 48, 702 15, 060 33, 642 40, 184 50, 130 54, 308 17, 840 36, 468 37, 360 45, 115 51, 734 16, 690 35, 044 38, 159 45, 645 51, 592 16, 730 34, 862 38, 816 46, 307 52, 601 17, 397 35, 204 39, 094 46, 398 53, 344 17, 403 35, 941 39, 530 46, 826 53, 696 18, 046 35, 650 39, 386 47, 799 52, 868 17, 419 35, 449 40, 780 48, 645 53, 983 17, 803 36, 180 40, 616 48, 805 53, 754 17, 699 36, 055 40, 581 49, 006 54, 643 18, 208 36, 435 41, 381 49, 723 54, 100 17, 481 36, 619 40, 676 49, 847 54, 634 17, 559 37, 075 40, 796 50, 167 55, 573 18, 157 37, 416 41, 174 50, 130 57, 741 19, 664 38, 077 56, 600 19, 041 37, 559 (see page 21). For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 In ventorie.3 * DurNonDurNonable durable able durable TVvt-nl goods goods goods goods stores stores stores stores 52, 571 57, 156 65, 229 73, 851 74, 676 82, 405 74, 676 75, 292 76, 243 77, 298 78, 102 78, 406 79, 375 79, 917 81, 118 81, 848 81, 658 81, 660 82, 405 23, 864 26, 056 29, 593 34, 301 34, 474 38, 224 34, 474 34, 479 34, 592 35, 231 35, 462 35, 547 35, 863 36, 523 37, 515 37, 822 37, 518 37, 933 38, 224 28, 707 31, 100 35, 636 39, 550 40, 202 44, 181 40, 202 40, 813 41, 651 42, 067 42, 640 42, 859 43, 512 43, 394 43, 603 44, 026 44, 140 43, 727 44, 181 Invent()ry-sales ratio4 Total business1 1.61 1.52 1.46 1.51 1.60 1.49 1. 52 1. 51 1.49 1.48 1.48 1.50 1.49 1. 50 1. 51 1.53 1.55 1. 52 1.47 Retail 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.53 1.51 1.46 1.44 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.48 1.47 1.49 1.48 1. 51 1.49 1.47 1.43 Source: Department oi Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers1 new orders rose 6.1 percent in December while sales increased 4.7 percent and inventories fell for the first time since December 1975. Preliminary estimates indicate durable goods manufacturers1 shipments and new orders declined in January. BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAIfl BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALS) INVENTORIES 240 200 160 120 100 80 DURABLE GOODS 60 BLUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 40 1111111 i i 11 1 1 1 1 1 ! 11 n i MI ill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i.n 1 1 1 1 1 t it n i RATIO* 220 2.00 BWEhnORY-SHlPMENTS RATIO TOTAL 180 40 1.60 1.40 120 1975 1974 1973 1976 1977 j 1111 in 11 1973 1974 1975 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES Manufac turers' shipments * Manufad /urera* in\rentories 2 Manu facturers ' new orelers * Durablle goods Period Total 1971 55, 925 1972 63, 042 1973 72, 954 1974 84, 612 1975 87, 240 1976 * 98, 552 1975: Dec... 92, 553 1976: Jan... 94, 067 Feb... 95, 551 Mar_. 97, 786 Apr... 98, 519 May.. 98, 546 June- 98, 937 July.. 99, 334 Aug.. 99, 448 Sept.. 98, 780 Oct... 97, 682 Nov.. 100, 596 Dec 105, 277 1977: Jan*._ NonDurable durable goods goods 29, 973 34,042 39,704 44, 043 43, 912 50, 392 46, 772 47, 289 48, 430 50, 382 50, 146 50, 558 50, 606 51, 090 51,648 50, 060 49, 267 51, 427 55, 520 53, 499 1 Book -value, end of period. •End of period. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted 25, 953 28, 999 33,250 40, 569 43, 328 48, 160 45, 781 46, 778 47, 121 47, 404 48, 374 47, 988 48, 331 48,244 47, 799 48, 720 48, 415 49, 169 49, 757 Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total Total Millieins of doll,ars, seasoitally adju*sted 102, 490 66, 149 36, 341 55, 937 29, 951 108, 072 70, 098 37, 974 64,246 35, 142 124, 395 81, 218 43, 177 76, 217 42, 888 157, 971 101, 780 56, 191 86, 988 46, 570 155, 693 100, 310 55, 382 85, 673 42, 164 166, 856 105, 988 60, 868 98, 901 50, 716 155, 693 100, 310 55, 382 91, 816 45, 985 156, 120 99, 980 56, 140 92, 822 45, 904 156. 458 99,942 56, 516 95, 044 47, 930 157, 560 100, 740 56, 820 98, 550 51, 111 158, 134 101, 033 57, 101 98, 756 50, 245 159, 488 101, 502 57, 986 99, 379 51, 354 161, 118 102, 429 58, 689 99, 476 51, 249 162, 144 102, 856 59, 288 99, 214 51, 180 163, 184 103, 282 59, 902 97, 924 50, 380 164, 966 104, 117 60, 850 98, 869 50, 068 166, 674 105, 589 61, 085 99, 646 50, 993 167, 114 106, 128 60, 986 101, 461 52, 424 166, 856 105, 988 60, 868 107, 634 57, 497 55, 178 are the same as sales, inventories to average ManufacCapital Nongoods durable turers' indus- goods unfilled3 orders tries, nondefense 7,575 8,947 11, 169 12, 656 10, 899 12, 853 11, 054 11, 663 11, 900 12, 173 12, 476 12, 666 12, 607 13, 778 12, 690 13, 468 14, 302 12, 878 14, 305 14, 688 25, 986 29, 104 33, 329 40, 418 43, 509 48, 185 45, 830 46, 918 47, 114 47, 439 48, 511 48, 025 48, 227 48, 033 47, 544 48, 801 48, 653 49, 037 50, 137 107, 656 122, 362 161, 766 190, 271 171, 438 175, 686 171, 438 170, 193 169, 686 170, 450 170, 687 171, 520 172, 059 171, 938 170, 414 170, 503 172, 468 173, 333 175, 686 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio * 1.83 1. 67 1.58 1. 66 1.80 1.64 1.68 1. 66 1.64 1.61 L61 1.62 L 63 1. 63 1.64 1.67 1.71 L66 L58 monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of Inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES WHOLESALE PRICES In January, the wholesale price index rose 0.5 percent (also 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Prices of Farm products and processed foods and feeds increased 0.5 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodities prices were up 0.5 percent (also 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATO SCALE) INDEX. 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 180 FARM PRODUCTS AND ! I PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS I \ 160 140 120 120 100 100 1969 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEMRTM&CT OF LABOR [1967=100] Period All commodities 1969— 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 106. 5 110. 4 114. 0 119. 1 134. 7 160.1 174.9 182. 9 1976: Jan Feb 179. 3 179.3 179. 6 181.3 181.8 183. 1 184.3 183. 7 184. 7 185. 2 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Got Nov Deo 1977: Jan 1 185. 6 187. 1 188.0 Farm products Industrial and processed commodities foods and feeds 108.0 111. 7 113.9 122.4 159. 1 177.4 184.2 183. 1 Unadjusted 184.6 182.0 180.3 183. 7 1849 187. 5 188.1 181.7 182.7 179.4 178.4 183.9 184.8 Farm products Processed foods and feeds 106.0 110. 0 114.1 117.9 125.9 153.8 171. 5 182. 3 109.1 HLO 112.9 125.0 176.3 187.7 186.7 191. 1 107.3 112. 1 114,5 120.8 148.1 170.9 182.6 178.0 177.3 193.3 190.1 188.0 194.9 194.3 195.3 194.2 187.3 189.1 188.1 187. 1 191.9 194.0 178.7 176.4 177. 3 179.5 181.1 181. 7 180. 5 176.0 175.9 174.9 175. 7 178. 9 178.6 i7ao 178.9 180. 0 180.4 181. 3 182.6 183. 6 184. 7 186. 3 187. 0 187.4 isa4 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaftobaeco. * Includes supplies ana components; excludes intermediate materials lor Ibod manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. 22 Special £jroupings Crude materials * Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished rials goods 110. 6 106.1 106. 9 na 9 109. 9 112. 0 122.7 114.3 116.6 119. 5 11&9 131. 1 123. 5 155. 2 128. 1 159.5 219. 1 141.0 162. 5 225. 1 178.6 189.4 250. 0 173. 2 Seas onally ad usted 184.8 236. 9 ieag 231. 1 185.6 169. 8 237.4 186. 5 170. 6 187.1 243.0 171.3 187.2 244.0 173,7 172. 5 246. 8 18& 1 252. 7 189.0 173.2 173. 6 254.4 190.0 174. 6 253. 2 191. 8 262. 5 193.3 176.5 194.3 271. 8 177.2 178. 5 195. 3 265. 8 179. 2 262.6 196. 3 Consul)aer finishe d goods ex eluding fo ods Total Durable Nondurable 104.0 106. 9 110.8 113. 2 138.6 153. 1 161. 7 126. 3 138. 2 144. 3 105.0 108. 3 111.7 113.6 120.5 146.8 163.0 173.2 159. 1 159.2 159. 3 159.5 159.4 160. 5 161. 5 162.3 163.7 164.6 165. 3 165. 8 167.4 142.0 142. 5 142. 8 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.1 144.8 145.6 146.4 14& 7 146. 9 148.0 170.4 170.2 170.2 170.4 170.1 171.5 173.0 174. 0 175.6 176.7 177. 9 178.4180,3 104.6 107. 7 111.2 Iia5 iiae 115. 8 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data reylsed beginning 1S72. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau ol Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In January, the consumer price index rose 0.6 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.9 percent (also 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices were unchanged (up 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices rose 0.9 percent (also 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted). fNDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 200 120 100 100 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974_ 1975 1976. _ All items Food 109.8 116.3 121. 3 125.3 133. 1 147. 7 161. 2 170. 5 108.9 114.9 118.4 123. 5 141.4 161.7 175.4 180. 8 Commodities less food 108. 1 112. 5 nas 119.4 123. 5 136.6 149. 1 156. 6 Comnaodities iess food Food Services All commodities All Food at home Food away from home 112.5 121. 6 128.4 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 108.4 113.5 117.4 120. 9 129.9 145. 5 158.4 165.2 108.9 114.9 118.4 123. 5 141.4 161. 7 175.4 180. 8 108. 2 113. 7 116.4 121. 6 141. 4 162.4 175.8 179. 5 111.6 119.9 126. 1 131. 1 141.4 159.4 174. 3 186. 1 Services All Durable Nondurable 108. 1 112.5 116.8 119.4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156.6 107. 0 111.8 116. 5 118.9 121. 9 130.6 145.5 154. 3 108.8 113. 1 117.0 119.8 124.8 140.9 151. 7 158.3 112. 5 121.6 128. 4 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180. 4 Seasonal y adjust ed Unac i justed 1976: Jan Feb--_ Mar Apr May June July--Aug Sept.._ Oct Nov Dec 166.7 167. 1 167. 5 168.2 169.2 170. 1 171. 1 171. 9 172.6 173.3 173.8 174. 3 180.8 180.0 178.7 179.2 180.0 180. 9 182. 1 182. 4 181. 6 181. 6 181. 1 181.7 152.3 152. 7 153. 3 154.2 155. 5 156. 5 157. 1 158. 0 158. 9 159. 6 160. 3 160. 6 174.9 176. 1 177.2 177.7 178.4 179.5 180.7 181.8 183.2 184. 1 185. 1 185. 8 163.0 162. 7 162. 6 163. 3 164.4 165.0 165.5 166. 2 166.6 167. 1 167.4 168. 0 181. 1 179. 5 178. 5 179.4 180.8 181.2 181. 4 181.8 181. 9 182.2 181. 7 181.9 181.1 178.8 177. 3 178.3 179. 6 179.9 179. 9 180. 2 180. 1 180. 3 179.6 179.7 180.8 182.2 183.0 183.9 185.0 186. 1 187.2 188.0 188. 7 189. 0 189.5 190.4 153.2 153. 7 154. 1 154. 6 155.6 156.2 156.9 157. 8 158. 3 159.0 159. 6 160.5 149.9 150. 7 151.8 152. 7 153.7 1542 155.0 155. 6 156. 1 156. 6 157. 3 158. 4 155. 6 155.8 155. 7 156.0 156.9 157.6 158.4 159. 3 159.9 160.6 161. 3 162.0 1746 175.8 177. 1 177.9 178. 9 179. 9 181. 1 182. 2 183. 2 184.0 1848 1977: Jan 175.3 183.4 160. 6 187. 5 169. 4 183. 5 181.3 192.0 161.6 159.9 162.8 187.2 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1972. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 185. 5 23 CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES Percent c langefrc m 3 rnont as earlier; Percent <change from 6 mont as earlier; season illy adjuisted annu al rates season ally adjusted annuaJ rates Percen t change from preceding perio d; seasortally adju sted ' All Period modities 2.8 4.8 1968 1969— 1970 1971 1972., 1973 1974 1975 1976 1976: Jan. . FebMar— Apr MayJune _ JulyAug— .SeptOet-_ Nov— Dec— 1977: Jan. . 2.2 4. 1 6.3 15.4 20. 9 4.2 4. 7 3 2 3 8 2 6 3 — 2 7 5 6 6 .5 Farm products 4.4 8.4 -4.7 ai 18.7 36. 1 -1. 9 5.5 -1. 1 —.5 -1. 7 -1. 1 3. 7 -.3 .5 —. 6 -3.6 1.0 —.5 —. 5 2. 6 L1 Processed foods and feeds ao 6.8 .8 4.7 11.6 20.3 20. 9 O O "^ O. O — 1.1 — 1.2 -1.3 .5 1.2 .9 ___ .3 >-r -2.5 —. 1 —.6 .5 1.8 — O Industrial commodities All modities Processed foods and feeds Farm products Industrial commodities All modities Farm products Processed foods and feeds Industrial commodities 2.7 3.9 3. 6 a4 3.4 10.7 25. 6 6.0 6.4 .6 .2 .4 .4 .1 .6 .6 .5 .8 .9 .7 .3 .5 1.3 -11.3 . 7 -10. 4 1.6 3. 8 5. 2 6.4 4. 3 2. 7 3. 3 4. 2 7. 6 7.4 7.1 — 12. 2 3.4 9. 1 16.5 — 1.4 -13.7 -12. 1 -12.0 — .4 6. 1 13. 1 — 15. 5 -15. 2 -7. 7 1. 8 11. 1 10. 3 2. 2 -10. 8 — 12. 2 -11.8 — 7 7. 0 7.5 5.8 5. 1 4. 3 3. 9 4. 5 5. 2 7. 1 8.2 9. 3 10.0 7. 8 a? 6.2 6.0 4. 0 3. 3 2. 6 2.9 3.9 4. 0 3.9 4.8 4. 2 5. 1 5. 3 5.6 -3. 9 -9.4 — 8. 1 -7.3 —2. 9 .9 2. 0 —.5 — 1.6 — 5. 1 -5.9 -3. 1 -2. 1 2. 2 -2.4 -7. 1 —4. 3 -1. 1 1. 1 .9 -2.9 1. 2 — 6.9 -7.3 -3.5 -.2 8. 9 8. 0 7.2 5. 9 4. 8 4. 8 4, 8 5. 5 6.4 7. 2 8. 5 ao 7.7 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1972. 'Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Perceiit changf j from pre ceding perio d; seasoilally adjusted1 Period All items Food Commodities Services Percent c liange fr<>m 3 monl hs earlier Percent c hangefrc >m 6 monl hs earlier: season illy adju,sted annu al rates seasonsilly adjusted annual rates All items Food food 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 4.7 6. 1 5. 5 3.4 3. 4 8.8 - 1976: Jan.. _ Feb__Mar— _ Apr_ May__ June. _ July— Aug— Sept Oct-_. Nov— _ Dec— 1977: Jan.. - 12.2 7.0 4. 8 .6 . 1 .2 .4 .7 4.3 7.2 2.2 4.3 4.7 20. 1 12. 2 6. 5 .6 .1 Q —.6 .5 .8 4.1 3.6 6.2 11.3 C. 1 7.3 .4 .3 1. 1 .3 .3 .6 .7 .7 .5 .6 .4 -.3 .1 .4 .4 .6 .4 .4 .4 .8 .9 .7 .9 .3 .2 .3 .6 .7 .6 .5 > Animal changes are from December to December (unadjusted). 3. 6 6. 3 5. 5 45 2. 2 4.8 4.0 4.2 1.8 -. 2 .0 4.3 4.5 4. 0 3. 7 5. 0 5.6 6. 1 5.8 5.5 5.5 4.6 5.7 6. 1 2,9 6.7 6.7 4. 9 3. 9 3. 1 5.4 6. 1 5. 3 -1. 8 -5.4 -3. 7 2. 9 6. 2 1.6 3.7 2.3 .7 5. 1 6.1 5. 7 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.7 5.5 5.7 5.5 4.8 4.8 3. 1 1.0 .8 5. 8 5. 2 5.6 9. 3 9. 9 9. 8 9. 5 8.7 8.5 7.6 7.4 7.0 7.0 6. 7 6. 3 7. 1 5.5 2.3 ai 6.9 11. 3 10.2 10. 6 7.8 7. 2 6. 5 7.4 7.6 7. 5 6.6 5.8 1 .6 .2 .3 2.6 3.8 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1972. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 24 Services ai .3 .1 Food Commodities less food 7.4 .2 .1 .2 All items a2 .4 .5 .5 .3 .4 .4 .6 Services 6. 1 3.7 4,5 4,8 2.3 2.5 5.0 13.2 6.2 Commodities less food 4.6 4.3 4. 1 4.0 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.5 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers increased 1% percent in the month ended January 15. Contributing most to the increase were higher prices for corn, hogs, soybeans, broilers, and commercial vegetables. Partially offsetting were lower prices for eggs, potatoes, cotton, oranges, and milk. Prices paid by farmers rose 2 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 220 200 200 180 180 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 160 160 140 140 PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 120 120 100 100 RATIO J/ 110 1969 l 1970 » 1971 1972 1973 1975 1974 1976 ' 1977 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Parity ratio l Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Crops Prices paid by far mers All items, Family ProducLivestock interest, living tion and taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967-100 Actual Adjusted2 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 107 110 113 125 179 192 186 186 97 100 108 114 175 224 201 198 117 118 118 136 183 165 172 177 108 112 120 125 144 166 180 192 109 114 118 123 133 151 166 176 104 108 113 121 146 166 182 193 73 72 69 74 91 85 76 71 79 77 73 79 94 86 76 72 1976: Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15__ 186 187 186 189 191 196 195 187 187 178 173 179 191 193 195 193 198 211 215 201 204 195 187 192 183 183 178 186 185 184 179 175 172 165 162 168 189 191 191 191 191 193 194 193 193 192 192 193 172 172 173 174 174 175 177 177 178 179 180 181 190 192 193 193 193 196 196 194 194 192 191 193 72 72 71 73 73 75 74 71 71 68 66 68 73 73 72 73 74 75 75 72 72 69 67 69 182 196 170 197 182 197 68 69 1977: Jan 15 __ L 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14«* 100 base. * The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. NOTE.—Prices paid and ratios revised beginning 1975. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Over the past 6 months (July to January) Mi and Ms grew at annual rates of 5.7 and 11.7 percent, respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL^ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 300 200 200 1977 1969 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Over all measiures l Deposi ts at co m inertia i banks Period M, M2 M3 Currency Timie and sa vings Demand Total 1972: Dec... 1973: Dec___ 1974: Dee___ 1975: Dec... 1976: Dec__ 1976: Jan___ Feb__. Mar__ Apr.. _ May__ June__ July__ Aug___ Sept___ Oct___ Nov.-. Dec ._ 1977: Jan *_ 255. 3 270. 5 283. 1 294. 8 312. 2 295.3 296. 8 298. 1 301. 8 303. 5 303. 2 305.0 306.3 306. 6 310. 1 310. 1 312. 2 313.6 525. 3 571.4 612.4 664. 3 739.7 670. 3 678.2 682. 6 690. 6 695. 7 698.2 705.2 710. 5 716.5 725.9 732. 0 739.7 745.4 844.5 919.6 981. 5 1, 092. 9 1, 236. 9 1, 104. 1 1, 117. 5 1, 126. 8 1, 140. 1 1, 150. 1 1, 156. 9 1, 169. 2 1, 181. 4 1, 194. 5 1,211. 2 1, 223. 6 1, 236. 9 1, 248. 2 56.9 61.5 67. 8 73.7 80.7 74. 3 75. 0 75. 7 76.6 77.3 77.5 78. 1 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.3 80.7 81. 3 198. 4 209. 0 215. 3 221.0 231. 6 221. 1 221.8 222. 4 225. 2 226. 2 225. 6 226. 8 227. 7 227. 4 230. 3 229. 8 231.6 232. 3 313. 5 363. 9 418.3 451.7 490. 7 453. 3 456. 7 457.8 460.0 460.7 465. 3 469. 1 469. 1 472.9 478. 1 484.2 490. 7 494. 8 1 MI is currency plus demand deposits; Ms is MI plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and M8 is Ms plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 8 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 Per cent cha age 2 Comporlents anc 1 related i terns Large CDs 43. 5 63.0 89. 0 82. 1 63.3 78.4 75.4 73.4 71.2 68. 6 70. 2 68.9 65.0 63. 1 62. 3 62.2 63.3 63. 1 Other 270. 0 300. 9 329. 3 369. 6 427.4 374.9 381.3 384.4 388.9 392. 1 395. 1 400.2 404. 1 409.9 415. 8 421.9 427.4 431.8 Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions 319. 3 348. 1 369. 1 428.6 497.2 433. 8 439. 4 444. 3 449.5 454.4 458.6 464.0 470.9 478.0 485. 3 491. 6 497.2 502.8 U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjust- Mt M2 ed) 7.4 6. 3 4.9 4. 1 4.4 3. 8 4.6 3. 9 3. 9 3.8 4. 8 3.4 3.7 4.9 3.9 4. 0 4.4 3.8 NOTE.—Series revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 9.2 6.0 4.7 11. 4 8. 8 5.9 8. 5 11.4 4. 1 2. 4 2.7 3.0 5.8 5.4 5. 8 6. 7 6.5 5. 8 5.6 4.4 6.0 5.7 7.2 7.2 8. 8 9.3 10.9 10.4 10.5 10. 7 9. 8 10.2 10. 5 10. 7 12.2 11.7 PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Currcmcy and cieposits Period 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: Dec Dec Dec Dee..Dec Dec Dec Currency Demand deposits Commercial banks 49. 1 52. 6 56. 9 61.5 67. 8 73.7 80.7 151. 8 161. 5 176.5 183. 3 186. 5 190.6 197.8 198. 9 233.6 264.4 2944 321. 1 360. 5 418. 8 232. 7 271. 1 319. 3 348. 1 369. 1 428. 6 497. 3 52.0 54. 3 57.5 60.4 63.3 67.3 71.9 41. 9 31. 7 „ „ 1, 300. 2 1, 065. 3 1, 312. 4 1, 079. 1 1, 321. 2 1, 088. 0 1, 334. 9 1, 101. 4 _- . _ 1, 345. 7 1, 111. 8 1, 355. 9 1, 118. 0 1, 370. 3 1, 130. 1 __ -_ 1, 379. 5 1, 142. 5 1, 389. 9 1, 154. 9 1, 407. 3 1, 170. 7 __ 1, 419. 9 1, 181. 9 __ 1, 435. 1 1, 194. 6 74. 3 75,0 75.7 76. 6 77.3 77.5 78. 1 78. 6 79.2 79.9 80. 3 80.7 191. 1 192.0 192. 0 194. 4 195.7 194. 5 195.4 196. 1 195. 3 197.8 196. 5 197. 8 366. 1 372.7 376. 1 380. 9 384. 4 387. 3 392. 5 396.9 402. 4 407. 8 413.6 418. 8 433. 8 439. 4 444. 3 449. 5 454. 4 458. 6 464. 0 470. 9 478. 0 485. 3 491.6 497. 3 81.4 199, 2 423. 6 502.4 .. _ _ 1977: Jan* Total 769. 5 632.4 852. 5 718. 7 967. 9 817. 0 887.4 1, 079. 5 1, 166. 2 944. 5 1, 289. 8 1,053. 5 1,435. 1 1, 194. 6 :.. 1976: Jan__ Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct. Nov Dec Negotiable certifiShortNonbank cates of term Savings marketthrift deposit institu- bonds able setions curities Time d eposits Total liquid assets U.S. Ti-easury secui ities 1, 447. 4 1, 206. 7 Other private money market instruments 43. 2 47.4 66.4 70. 7 21.8 27.6 36.2 54.0 70.7 60.0 46. 5 21. 4 20.2 22, 7 34. 5 40.4 42.6 51.5 67. 6 68.0 68.3 68. 7 69. 0 69. 4 69.8 70.3 70. 8 71. 1 71.5 71.9 67.3 67. 6 68.4 69. 1 69.8 70.6 72.6 71. 9 70. 3 70.9 70. 7 70.7 56. 8 54,3 52.9 51.4 49.6 51. 2 50.2 46.6 45. 3 45. 1 45.4 46.5 43. 3 43.4 43.6 44 3 45. 5 46. 7 47. 6 48. 2 48.7 49.4 50.4 51. 5 72. 3 70.4 45.8 52. 3 345 Source; Board of Governor; oi the Federal Keserve System. NOTE.—Series revised. CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalment credit e:rfcended Period Total i 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct.. Nov Dec - ___ 109, 146 112, 175 123, 086 140, 072 160, 228 160, 008 163, 483 186, 221 15, 228 15, 132 15, 045 15, 521 15, 003 15, 041 15, 592 15, 240 15, 685 15, 775 16, 055 15, 763 16, 702 Automobile 32, 553 29, 965 34, 778 40, 266 46, 105 43, 209 48, 103 55, 807 4,642 4, 505 4, 523 4,689 4,583 4,471 4,600 4,477 4, 712 4,769 4, 587 4, 632 5,263 i Includes some item? not shown separately. Bank credit cards 4,398 6,768 8, 377 10, 390 13, 863 17, 098 20, 428 25, 481 1,839 1,921 2,012 2, 118 1,985 2, 103 2, 088 2, 152 2, 183 2, 165 2, 198 2, 181 2,217 Instalmcmt credit lieluidated Total i 99, 786 107, 385 113, 788 124, 513 140, 552 151, 056 156, 640 169, 682 13, 738 14, 029 13, 923 14, 048 13, 576 13, 566 14, 261 13, 937 14, 282 14, 294 14, 491 14, 520 14, 879 Automobile 29, 974 30, 432 31, 303 34, 705 40, 137 42, 883 45, 472 48, 337 3, 883 3, 966 3,909 4, 026 3,851 3,819 4,074 3,922 4, 090 4, 165 4, 059 4, 155 4,250 Bank credit cards 3,066 5,615 7,679 9, 472 12, 433 15, 655 19, 208 23, 905 1,832 1,815 1,881 1,926 1,846 1,911 1,990 1,981 2, 097 2, 000 2,074 2, 110 2,250 Net change in amount Dutstanding Total l 9,360 4,790 9,299 15, 559 19, 676 8,952 6, 843 16, 539 1, 490 1, 103 1, 123 1,473 1,427 1,474 1,330 1, 303 1,403 1,481 1, 564 1,243 1,823 Automobile 2,579 — 468 3,476 5, 561 5,968 327 2, 631 7,470 759 539 614 663 732 652 526 556 621 605 528 477 1,013 Bank credit cards 1,332 1, 153 699 918 1,430 1,443 1,220 1,576 6 106 132 192 139 193 98 171 86 166 123 71 -33 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Over the past 6 months (July to January) commercial and industrial loans at commercial banks grew at an annual rate of 7.3 percent. BILLIONS Of DOUARS* (RATIO SCALEJ BIUJONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,000 1,000 "ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS" 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES -—"-"•"I 100 100 80 80 INVESTMENT IN US. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 60 60 I I i I i I I i I I i i I l l i I i I I l l i in I I I I I I t I 40 1975 1976 1977 i i i.i i t i i ii i I i in i h i ii i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1 1 1 i i 1 1 1 ii 1 . 1 1 1969 1970 1971 1972 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END Of MONIH SOURCE: BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTCM Total loans Period investments 401.7 1969 1970 435. 5 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 485. 7 558. 0 633. 4 .. « 690. 4 721. 1 767. 5 1976" 1976: Jan » Feb " Mar * Apr • May " June " July ' Aug ' Sept * Got " Nov " Dec= __ ._ 1977: Jan* 1 Data 3 723. 3 726.7 731. 2 734. 5 737.6 738. 8 743. 1 748.7 752. 5 760. 3 760. 3 767. 5 773. 1 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All me mber ban ks Allcommercial b anks * Borrowi ngs (mil]leserves 2 3 lions of dollars, L<Dans Investnlents unadjv isted) » ™ " •; — U.S. Goveluding Commerernment cial and inter- industrial securities bank 51.2 279.4 105.7 57. 8 292.0 110.0 60.6 320. 9 116. 1 130.2 62.6 378. 9 54. 5 156. 4 449. 0 50. 4 183.3 500. 2 79.4 176.0 496.9 176.2 96. 5 521. 6 176.6 81. 0 497. 3 175.1 84.4 497. 8 5 88,2 499.7 171. 4 170.5 90. 0 500. 5 170.7 93.0 500. 6 170.2 94. 0 500. 7 171. 0 92.7 504. 7 95.0 507.6 171. 0 172. 0 94. 0 511. 4 174. 8 93. 5 519. 3 521. 8 176. 7 94.3 176. 2 96.5 521. 6 528.4 177. 1 95.7 are for end of period, Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 'Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. 28 Other securities Total Nonborrowed Required Total 71.1 85. 7 104.2 116. 5 129. 9 139. 8 144.8 149. 4 145. 0 144. 5 143. 3 144. 0 144.0 144. 1 145.7 146. 1 147. 1 147. 5 150.2 149. 4 27.93 29. 11 31.24 31.44 34. 98 36. 63 34. 75 34. 95 34. 31 34. 07 34.02 34,05 34.17 34.29 34. 34 34.51 34. 34 34. 51 34. 8.: 34. 95 26. 81 28.77 31. 12 30. 39 33. 69 35. 90 34. 62 34. 90 34. 23 33. 99 33.97 34.00 34. 05 34. 16 34 21 34. 41 34.27 34.41 34. 78 34. 90 27.65 28.86 31. 06 31. 16 34.68 36. 37 34.49 34.68 34. 07 33. 85 33. 80 33. 89 33.96 34. 07 34. 11 34. 31 34. 14 34. 29 34. 59 34. 68 1,086 149. 0 34. 79 34. 72 34. 52 61 Seasonal 321 107 1,049 1,298 703 127 62 79 76 58 44 121 120 123 104 75 66 84 62 41 32 13 12 9 11 8 11 11 20 24 28 31 32 21 12 10 * During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due t<j a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank, * Loan reelnssifieations reduced these loans by $12. billion as of March 31,1976, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of doHars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total 93.3 114.5 118.6 105. 1 129.0 154. 0 181.7 183. 0 145. 5 83.5 130. 7 171.0 196.7 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: I II III IV 1976: I II III.. . 200.9 200. 1 _ 19R5 Inter1 nal Credi t market funds Total 61.3 62.3 61.7 58.9 6&6 80.8 83.8 77.6 103.4 83.5 101.5 113.6 114.9 120.6 121.3 12ai Total 32.0 52. 2 56.9 46.2 60.4 73.2 97.8 105. 4 42. 1 Longterm 2 21. 0 18. 9 20.8 32.6 41.6 41.4 37.4 39. 6 49.8 52.9 54.4 37.9 54. 0 2R9 31. 9 sa4 41. 5 46.4 58.8 72.9 83. 1 37. 1 35.0 32. 1 31.1 50. 0 45.4 48.1 38.0 .0 29.2 57.4 81.8 80.3 78.8 70.4 4&6 43.0 37. 7 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. *1 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances, and Government loans. Short-8 term 3. 1 20.3 7.9 13. 0 17.7 8.9 4.7 17.3 35.5 43. 5 -12.8 -18.0 -22.2 -6.8 —4.0 -3. 1 5.0 .2 Total Other ia 5 4.8 14.0 14.4 25.0 22.2 5.0 — 35. 0 -2.9 26.3 31.7 348 30. 6 32.4 89.4 106.4 113. 4 96. 1 115. 1 137. 5 165.5 169.9 130.9 6a 6 115. 3 157. 9 182. 2 190. 9 195. 4 189. 2 Purchase of physical assets 4 Increase in financial assets 72. 6 77.6 85. 0 80.6 86.2 101. 0 124.4 134.6 95. 7 89. 8 80. 9 106.8 105.5 129.3 140. 5 143.7 16. 8 2a 8 2a4 15.4 2&s 36.5 41; 1 35. 3 35. 2 -21. 2 34.4 51. 1 76.7 61. 6 54.9 45.5 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 3.9 ai 5.2 9.0 13.9 16.4 16.1 13. 1 14.5 149 15.4 13.2 14.6 9. 9 46 9.3 < Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System; CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars] Current liabiilities Ciirrent ass<3tS End of period ReceivCash U.S. ables Govon from hand ernTotal U.S. and ment Govin securiernbanks * ties 2 ment 8 386.2 426.5 473.6 492. 3 529. 6 573. 5 643.3 712. 2 731. 6 698.4 703.2 716.5 731. 6 45.5 48. 2 47.9 50. 2 53. 3 57.5 61. 6 62. 7 68. 1 60.6 63. 7 65.6 68. 1 753. 5 1976: I !!___ 775. 4 III__ 791. 8 68. 4 70. 8 71. 1 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: !_„_. II__. III__ IV___ 1 Includes time certificates of deposit. 2 8 Includes Federal agency issues. 10.3 11.5 10. 6 7.7 11. 0 9.3 11. 0 11.7 19. 4 12. 1 12.7 143 19. 4 21. 7 23. 3 23.9 Notes and accounts receivable Other Incurvenrent tories assets 4 Federal income tax liabilities Other current liabili-5 ties 141.3 162.4 191.9 204 7 215. 6 230.4 261.6 287. 5 281. 6 271. 2 270. 1 273,4 281.6 13.2 14 3 12. 6 10.0 13. 1 15. 1 18. 1 23. 2 20. 7 21. 8 17.7 19.4 20.7 51.0 61.0 76.0 83. 6 92.4 102.6 117.0 1348 148. 8 280. 5 287. 0 2847 23. 9 22. 0 249 5. 1 5. 1 48 4. 2 3. 5 3. 4 3. 5 3. 5 3. 6 3. 2 3. 3 3.3 3.6 150.2 168.8 192.2 201. 9 217. 6 240. 0 266. 1 289.7 294 6 281. 9 284 8 2947 2946 153. 1 166.0 186. 4 193. 3 200.4 215. 2 246.7 288. 0 285. 8 285.2 281. 4 279. 6 285. 8 22.0 26. 9 31.6 35.0 43.8 48. 1 54 4 56.6 60. 0 55. 4 57. 3 59.0 60.0 211.3 244 1 287. 8 3049 326.0 352. 2 401. 0 450.6 457. 5 438.0 4342 4447 457. 5 5.8 6.4 7. 3 6.6 49 40 43 5.2 6.4 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.4 3. 6 3.7 43 307. 3 288. 8 318. 1 295. 6 3242 302. 1 63. 6 63.9 66.3 465. 9 475. 9 484 1 6.4 6. 8 7.0 Beeeivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government. Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations' books. Total Advances and Notes and preacpayments, counts payU.S. able Govern- 3 ment 139.8 140. 6 145. 6 148.8 155. 0 160. 1 167.5 Net working capital 174 9 182.4 185.7 187.4 203. 6 221. 3 242. 3 261.5 274 1 260.4 269.0 271.8 274 1 287.6 299. 4 307. 7 * Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets. «Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt due in less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Short-term and long-term interest rates remained relatively steady in February after rising sharply in January. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 1969 1977 1970 SOURCE: SEE TABLI BELOW COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Government secuirity yields Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976_ 1976: Feb Mar Apr May _ June July Aug__ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1977: Jan Feb Week ended : 1977: Jan 28 Feb 4 „_ 11 18 25__ Highgrade Corporate municipal Aaa bonds bonds (Standard4 (Moody's) & Poor's) 3-5 year issues 2 4.348 4.071 7.041 7.886 5. 838 4.989 4. 852 5.047 4. 878 5. 185 5. 443 5. 278 5. 153 5. 075 4. 930 4, 810 4. 354 4. 597 4. 662 5. 77 5.85 6. 92 7.81 7.55 6.94 7. 18 7.25 6. 99 7. 35 7.40 7.24 7.04 6. 84 6.50 6. 35 5. 96 6.49 5.74 5.63 6. 30 6.99 6.98 6.78 6. 92 6. 87 6.73 6. 99 6.92 6.85 6. 79 6. 70 6. 65 6. 62 6. 39 6.68 5. 70 5. 27 5. 18 6. 09 6.89 6. 49 6. 91 6.86 6. 62 6. 87 6.85 6.64 6. 28 6. 20 6.06 6. 05 5.69 5. 70 7. 39 7. 21 7. 44 8. 57 8.83 8.43 8. 55 8. 52 8.40 8. 58 8.62 8. 56 8.45 8. 38 8. 32 8. 25 7.98 7. 96 5. 11 4. 69 8. 15 9. 87 6. 33 5. 35 5. 23 5.37 5. 23 5. 54 5.94 5. 67 5.47 5. 45 5.22 5. 05 4.70 4. 74 4.88 4. 50 6. 45 7.83 6.25 5. 50 5K~5^ 5H-5V2 5&-5H 51/2-51/2 SM-SH 5}/2-5K 514-51/2 5H-5!4 5&-5H 5M-5M 5&-5K 5&-5K 4. 700 4. 720 4.625 4.633 4. 668 6.71 6. 78 6. 64 6. 60 6. 7. 7. 7. 5.74 5.79 5. 71 5. 70 8. 01 8.03 8. 01 8. 04 4. 83 4. 88 4. 80 4.78 5tf-5tf 5M-514 Taxable bonds * 88 15 12 12 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. * Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. 5 Bank) 3 -month Treasury bills l 1 Rate on new issues within period. 3 Selected note and bond issues. 3 30 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 6 5K-5K 5K-5M Prime rate charged by banks 5 5.72 5. 25 8. 03 10.81 7.86 6. 84 6%-63/4 694-6% 6%~6% 63/4-6% 7 -7K 7tf-7# 7^-7 7 -7 7 -6% 6&-6H 6H-6& 6#-6# Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)9 7. 74 7. 60 7. 95 8.92 9. 01 8.99 8.93 8.93 8. 92 8. 97 8. 89 8.97 9. 02 9.08 9. 07 9. 05 9. 10 9. 05 6K-6K 6#-6tf 6%~6M 6«-6tf Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Kates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Boerd, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation, COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS The decline in stock prices which began in early January continued in February. INDEX, D£C3\ 1965=50 80 INDEX, DEC 311965«50 80 70 70 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 - 30 1977 1973 1969 PERCENT 20 PERCENT 20 15 15 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 ! 1 ! 1969 I ! ! 1970 1 I 1 1971 ! I 1 1972 \ \ \ \ 1 1974 1973 1 1 1 1975 1 1 1 1976 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION New York Stock Exch ange indexes (Dec. 31, 31965 = 50) 2 Composite Industrial Transportation 1971 1972 1973 1974__ 1975 1976 1976: Jan Feb Mar___ Apr May June July Aug__ Sept. Oct Nov Dec 1977: Jan Week ended: 1977: Jan 21 __ 28 Feb 4 11 18 Utility 57.92 65.73 63. 08 48.08 50. 52 60.44 57. 00 59. 79 60. 30 60.62 60. 22 60. 70 62. 11 61. 14 62. 35 60. 07 59. 45 61. 54 61.26 44.35 50.17 37.74 31. 89 31. 10 39.57 35. 78 38. 53 39. 17 38. 66 39. 71 40.41 42. 12 40.63 40. 36 38. 37 39.28 41. 77 41.93 39.53 38.48 37.69 29. 79 31. 50 36.97 35.23 36. 12 35.43 35.69 35.40 35. 16 36.49 37.56 38.77 38. 33 38.85 40.61 41. 13 70.38 78.35 70. 12 49. 67 47. 14 52.94 48.83 52.06 52.61 52. 71 50. 99 51. 82 54. 06 54. 22 54. 52 52. 74 53.25 57.45 57. 86 56. 14 55. 79 55. 56 55. 03 54. 90 61.09 60. 51 60. 35 59. 72 59. 60 41. 75 41.56 41. 05 40.82 40. 55 41. 02 41. 50 41. 34 41.03 40. 80 57. 99 57. 21 56. 06 55. 73 55. 99 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on. Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Finance 54.22 60.29 57. 42 43. 84 45.73 54. 46 51. 31 53. 73 54. 01 54. 28 53. 87 54. 23 55. 68 55. 18 56. 29 54.43 54. 17 56. 34 56.28 1 Averages of dally closing prices. 3 8 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 600 stocks. 8 I I ! 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common s took5 yields (perc ent) Cominon stock p rices * Period ! Standard Dow& Poor's Jones composite Dividend- Earningsindustrial index ratio ratio average * (1941-43= 10) * 5.41 3. 14 884. 76 98.29 5. 50 2.84 109. 20 950. 71 7. 12 923. 88 107. 43 3.06 11.59 759. 37 82.85 4.47 9.04 802. 49 86. 16 4.31 974. 92 102. 01 3.77 929. 34 3.80 96.86 971. 70 100. 64 3. 67 8.29 988. 55 101. 08 3.65 992. 51 101. 93 3.66 988. 82 101. 16 3. 76 985. 59 101. 77 8.76 3. 75 993. 20 104. 20 3.64 981. 63 103. 29 3. 74 9.02 994. 37 105. 45 3. 71 951. 95 101. 89 3. 85 944. 58 101. 19 4. 04 104. 66 976. 86 3.93 970. 62 103. 81 3. 99 963. 96 960. 02 952. 11 938. 37 942. 98 103. 44 102. 49 102. 13 101. 05 100. 94 3. 97 4. 07 4. 10 4.20 4. 18 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. Q| FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT According to the revised budget submitted in February, the estimated budget deficits for fiscal years 1977 and 1978 are $68.0 billion and $57.7 billion, respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 400 200 200 150 150 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 J_ -100 1969 1971 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 -100 1978 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) TVifal 1 Fiscal year or period: 1969 1970 1971 1972__ _ 1973 1974. 1975 1976_ Transition quarter 1977 22 __ _ _ _ 1978 ._ . October 1975-January 1976 3 October 1976-January 1977 » Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. * Estimates from Fiscal Year 1978 Budget Revisions, February 1977. 32 Held by the public 187. 8 193. 7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264. 9 281. 0 300.0 81.8 349.4 401. 6 184. 5 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366. 5 94.7 417.4 459. 4 3.2 -2.8 -23. 0 -23.4 -14.8 -4.7 —45. 1 -66. 5 -13. 0 -68.0 -57.7 367. 1 382.6 409.5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544,1 631.9 646.4 727. 0 802.4 279.5 284.9 3043 323.8 343. 0 346. 1 396.9 480. 3 498.3 571.3 637. 1 92.8 106.2 1248 131.6 -31. 9 -25.4 595.3 6649 4541 518.9 * First 4 months of fiscal year 1977. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION Fiscal 1977 budget receipts are estimated at $349.4 billion and budget outlays at $417.4'billion, according to the February budget revisions. The corresponding figures for fiscal 1978 are $401.6 billion and $459.4 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 +*** OUTLAYS 300 300 ++** '"' 250 250 NONDEFENSE ^** V" 200 - 200 - - 150 150 .,—-«—"•i"--"*"" NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 =— — i— 50 4. 1 1 I 1971 ! 1 1972 I I ! a= =^- 100 > 50 1 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] ()utlays Rece ipts Nationa L defense Period Total Fiscal year or period: 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973__ __ _ _ _ 1974__ 1975 1976 Transition quarter. _ _ _ 1977 i 1978 !_ Indi- Corpovidual ration income income Other taxes taxes 148. 9 179.2 63.9 70. 5 75.4 81.7 92.8 107.4 118.0 127.0 34.5 143. 3 160.8 184 5 19&6 211. 4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366.5 94.7 417. 4 459.4 80.2 79. 3 76. 8 77.4 75. 1 78.6 86.6 90.0 22.5 100. 1 111. 9 77.9 77. 2 74. 5 75.2 73.3 77.6 85. 0 88. 0 21.9 98. 1 109.2 47.5 54.4 11. 1 9.6 35.7 40.7 124.8 131.6 30.7 29.7 29. 7 31.4 87.2 90.4 86. 2 94. 7 103. 2 119.0 122. 4 131. 6 October 1975-January 1976- 92.8 October 1976-January 1977 2_ 106. 2 3a 8 * Estimates from Fiscal Year 1978 Budget Revisions, February 1977. First 4 months of fiscal year 1977. Total Department of Defense, military 36.7 32.8 26. 8 32. 2 36. 2 38.6 40. 6 41.4 8. 5 57.2 61. 6 187.8 193. 7 188. 4 208. 6 232. 2 264. 9 281. 0 300.0 81.8 349. 4 401. 6 8 Total Interna- Health Inand tional income terest Other affairs security as ae ai 15.8 18.3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 31. 0 34. 6 2.0 6.9 7.8 49. 0 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91. 8 106. 5 136.3 160.9 41.5 181. 1 191. 0 38.2 41.8 35.7 39. 3 41. 8 48. 8 53. 9 51.7 66.4 76. 0 21. 5 91. 1 106. 8 1.6 1.7 53. 9 57.6 12.6 13.5 26. 1 29.2 3.9 3.5 4,8 5. 9 5. 1 7.2 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to revised estimates for calendar 1976, Federal receipts rose $43.7 billion and expenditures $31.1 billion, yielding a deficit of $58.7 billion, or $12.5 billion less than in 1975. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 400 160 160 SURPLUS ill HI mi *xx ww- eai®i liii ^1^1 "1 \ -40 III1IIi Ii1i1 -40 ^ -80 -120 DEF1CIT -80 -120 1968 1969 1971 1970 1972 1973 1?7 5 1974 197 6 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] I"ederal CSrovernm ent expeiiditures Federal Ck>vernni(mt receip bs Period -p , Indirect lr ersonal Corporate business tax and Total nontax profits tax and nontax tax receipts accruals accruals Fiscal year: 1974. 271. 9 283.2 1975 1976 313.6 Calendar year: 1972 227.5 1973 258. 3 1974 288.2 1975 286.5 1976 v 330.2 Surplus or Subsidies Less : deficit GrantsWage ContriPurin-aid less (-), current accruals national butions chases Trans- to State Net Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less for income social inand ments local paid Govern- disand governsurance ment en- burse- product services terprises ments accounts ments -0. 2 -.4 .0 -7. 1 -46.3 -59.4 122. 6 127.3 137.2 43.8 41.6 51.0 21. 4 22. 1 24.5 84. 1 278.9 92.2 329.5 100.9 373.0 104.8 119.0 127.2 104.7 134. 1 156.7 41. 6 48.3 57. 5 19. 8 21.9 25. 8 7. 9 5. 7 5.8 108.2 114.6 131.2 125. 7 145.3 36.6 43.0 45. 6 42. 6 55.6 20. 0 21.2 21.7 23.9 23.5 62. 8 79.4 89. 8 94. 3 105. 8 244.7 265.0 299. 7 357. 8 388.9 102. 1 102.2 111.6 124.4 133.4 83.2 95. 8 117. 6 148. 9 162.2 37.5 40.6 43.9 54.4 60.2 14.6 18.2 20.9 23.5 27. 5 7.8 8.2 5.2 6.5 5.6 .5 .0 -. 5 .0 .0 -17.3 -6.7 -11.5 -71.2 -58.7 1975: III__ 297.7 IV___ 306.7 130.5 135. 1 47.4 49.4 25.2 25. 5 94.7 363.7 96. 6 376. 0 124.6 130.4 152. 1 154. 9 56.8 58.0 23. 6 25. 6 6.7 7. 1 .0 .0 -66.0 -69.4 1976: !____ 316. 5 11 324.6 III_. 333.8 IV *>_ 137. 7 141.9 147. 2 154. 5 53. 1 54.8 56.2 22. 8 23.3 23.8 24. 1 380. 3 378.7 391. 1 405.6 129. 2 131.2 134.5 138.9 160. 3 158.7 163. 1 166.5 58. 8 56.3 60.1 65. 5 26. 6 27.4 27.7 28.4 5.4 5.2 5.6 6.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 -63.8 -54.1 -57.4 102.9 104. 6 106. 6 109.3 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Iadustrial producjtion (seiisonally adjuste<1) Period United States 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1976: III__ IV__ Oct. Nov Dec 108 110 120 130 129 118 130 131 132 130 132 133 Canada Japan 114 123 132 143 147 140 146 147 147 145 147 148 GerFrance many 152 156 167 197 189 168 124 132 142 150 154 140 193 156 192 196 153 157 Italy 135 137 142 153 150 142 151 150 153 157 152 150 Coiisumer prices (uinadjuste d) United United King- States dom 118 115 119 134 141 128 111 111 113 122 120 114 144 115 144 116 116 Canada GerJapan France many 116 121 125 133 148 161 171 172 174 173 174 174 112 116 121 130 145 160 172 173 176 175 176 176 120 127 133 149 183 205 224 225 232 230 231 234 175 178 236 117 124 131 141 160 178 195 197 203 201 203 204 109 115 121 130 136 144 151 152 152 152 152 153 Italy 109 114 121 134 160 187 218 221 235 231 236 239 United Kingdom 118 128 138 150 174 217 253 255 267 263 267 270 1977: I— _ Jan 132 154 Sources: National sources as reported by Department ol Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, in Business Conditions Digest. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merc]landise imports Merch andise e sports Period Domestic; exports Total domesFood, Crude tic and bever- mate- Manufacforeign Total i 2 ages, Total 2 rials extured and to- and ports goods bacco fuels F.a.s. valu e 5 Monthly average: 1973 1974 Food, Crude bever- mate- Manufacages, rials tured and to- and goods bacco fuels Total (c.i.f. value) 4 Mercshandise trade balance Exports Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports less (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less imless ports im- imports (c.i.f.) (cusports toms (f.a.s.) value) Custom s value 5,902 8, 159 5,811 8,045 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,416 8, 159 1974.-. 8,928 1975 ... 9, 567 1976 1975: Dec_-_ 9,250 9,097 1976: Jan 8,798 Feb 8,938 Mar 9, 386 Apr May. _ 9,563 9,713 June July. _ 10, Oil 9,687 Aug Sept__ 9,872 Oct-__ 9, 728 Nov__. 9,625 Dec___ 10, 515 8,045 8,803 9,428 1,269 1,399 1,436 1,409 1, 510 1,337 1,305 1,521 1,427 1,439 1, 563 1, 615 1,437 1,598 1,257 1,272 1,317 1,266 1, 341 1,222 1, 223 1, 136 1, 161 1,281 1,378 1,337 1,370 1,250 1,501 1,503 1,501 1,462 5,294 5,913 6,437 6,291 5,965 6,034 6,075 6, 187 6,427 6,553 6,661 6,566 6,507 6,266 6,578 7,364 8,354 8,010 10, 057 8,522 9, 176 8,941 9,609 9,596 9, 182 10, 095 10, 849 10, 446 10, 650 10, 406 10, 531 11, 066 1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. s Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. Gen eral imp orts 3 770 1,120 892 2, 653 F.a.s. ^value 5 892 2,672 827 2,716 991 3,456 825 2,852 872 3,233 889 2,913 1,053 2,885 896 3,492 932 2, 759 1,062 3,410 1,068 3,882 982 3, 758 994 3,724 943 3, 760 1,012 3,909 1, 153 3, 775 3,750 4,684 4, 602 4,257 5,398 4,582 4,714 4,782 5, 186 5,307 5, 196 5,338 5,722 5, 513 5,624 5,528 5,687 5,861 112 -257 -195 -229 —841 9, 000 -257 852 8,616 10, 797 -582 671 9, 161 9,880 -138 9, 593 -215 10, 303 -754 10, 302 -309 267 9,873 10, 891 -521 11, 650 -928 11, 219 -849 11, 448 -888 11, 149 -745 11, 282 -1,000 11, 838 -649 -195 918 -489 728 -79 -143 -671 -209 380 -383 -839 -759 -778 -678 -906 -551 -841 312 -1,230 89 -783 — 794 — 1,365 —915 —310 -1,178 — 1,640 — 1, 532 — 1, 576 -1,421 -1,657 -1,323 6,131 9, 000 s F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The U.S. trade balance registered a $9.6 billion deficit in 1976 compared with a $9.0 billion surplus in 1975. The shift in the U.S. trade position largely reflected the recovery and was partly offset by rising receipts on services and investment earnings. BTLUONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6 6 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 1971 1970 1968 1973 1972 1976 1974 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise Period Exports 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976" Imports Netiitivestment i ncome Milit*iry transactions 12 Net balance Direct expenditures 42, 469 -39,866 2,603 -4, 855 43, 319 -45, 579 -2,260 -4,819 49, 381 -55, 797-6,416 -4, 784 71, 410 -70,499 911 -4, 629 98, 310 -103,679 -5,369 — 5,035 107, 088 -98, 058 9,030 -4, 780 114, 515 -124, 072 -9, 557 Sales 1,501 1,926 1, 163 2,342 2,952 3,897 Net balance Private z U.S. Government — 3,355 3,631 -112 — 2,893 5, 659 _956 -3,621 6,208 -1,888 -2, 287 8, 188 -3,010 -2, 083 13, 461 -3,234 — 883 9,430 -3,423 AOC Net Baltravel Other ance and on trans- serv- goods porta- ices,3 and net tion serv-J receipts ices — 2,023 2, 190 2,938 -2, 315 2,509 -256 -3, 028 2, 789 -5, 954 -3,086 3, 188 3, 905 -3, 107 3, 919 3, 586 -2, 503 4,666 16, 316 1, 125 1,146 1, 187 1, 205 1975: I II____ III IV_ 27, 018 -25, 570 25, 851 -22, 568 26, 562 -24,483 27, 657 -25,437 1,448 — 1,317 3,283 -1,185 2,079 -1,093 2,220 -1, 185 915 807 978 1, 197 -402 -378 -115 12 2, 109 2,349 2,487 2,485 — 818 -805 -815 -687 —498 — 568 -750 1976:1 II.™ Ill p. IV»__ 26, 782 -28, 542-1,760 -1, 150 28, 371 -29, 803 — 1, 432 -1,219 29, 536 -32,647 -3, 111 -1,221 29, 826 -33, 080 -3, 254 1, 145 1,073 1,587 -5 -146 366 3,066 3, 195 3,480 -787 -735 -768 -754 1,212 — 396 1,161 — 485 1,309 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 8 for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net. 36 —~ «7O«J 2,608 5,084 4,265 4,357 RemitBaltances, penance sions, on curand other rent uniaclateral count transfers^ ~3, 294 -356 -3,701 -3,957 -3, 848-9,802 22 -3,883 -7, 184-3, 598 -4, 620 11,697 -1, 179 -1, 146 - 1, 044 -1,251 1,429 3,938 3,221 3, 106 1,058 -1, 118 -60 -920 1,736 816 869 -1,925 -1,056 NOTE.—Merchandise trade data revised for 1976. Other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the third quarter foreign assets in the United States rose $8.5 billion largely due to a sharp increase in liabilities to private foreigners and international institutions reported by U.S. banks. \J.S. assets abroad increased $8.9 billion, down nearly $1 billion from the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 10 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET 10 /\ A -to -10 -15 -15 1970 1969 1968 1976 1972 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S3. assets abroad, Etet [incr.esise/eapital outflow (-)] Period Total 1970 1971 1972 1973. 1974 1975 1976"- Other U.S. U.S. Govern- private Total ment assets assets Foreign official ass ets Total 2,477 — 1,589 -6,920 5,923 -6, 032 2,348 -1,884 -10, 060 22, 445 -9,596 32 -1,568 -8, 708 21, 127 - 10, 245 -16,434 209 -2, 645-13, 998 18, 519 -33,392 -1,434 365 32, 323 32, 433 -607 — 3,463 27, 523 15, 326 -31,593 -2,530 __- 1975: !_---_ II III.... IV_.__ 1976:1 II III IV Uq official reserve1 assets Forei gn assets in the U.S., net [incr ease/eapit al inflow '(+)] -8,001 -7,943 -4,411 -11,238 -325 -29 -342 89 -899 -6, 777 -840 -7, 074 772 3,297 -952 -10, 375 -984 7, 362 27, 405 -4, 450 10, 322 10, 422 5, 145 12, 220 10, 257 21, 452 8,427 5, 166 13, 052 3,402 2,958 2,837 1,913 3,907 2,331 2, 708 -1,606 -1,977 2,272 5,874 2,771 — 565 1,576 4, 313 3,103 3,942 4, 105 3,013 1,454 3,225 5,458 -773 -684 -8, 550 5,396 -10,007 -9,875 -1,578 - 1, 009-7,288 7,330 -407 -1,454 -7,040 8,471 »__ -8, 901 228 » i Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and the IJ.S. reserve position in the IMF. 6,907 26, 895 10, 705 6, 299 10, 981 6,899 Other Assets of foreign foreign assets official reserve agencies 2,460 3,308 1,258 6,026 Statistical discre pancy Allocations of nTr»tal special drawing the rights items (SDR) with sign reversed) U.S. official reserve assets, 1 Of which : net Seasonal (unadadjust- justed, ment end of discrep- period) ancy -402 867 717 -9, 609 710 -1,790 -2, 107 14, 487 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 3,735 1,328 98 — 39 -1,517 -2, 561 2,258 1,275 16, 256 16, 242 16, 291 16, 226 4,557 4,570 4,671 1,349 16, 941 1,729 -76 18, 477 1,485 -2, 829 18, 945 18, 747 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND PEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 375 DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON. D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment -. _ _. _ ~..~..-,...... _ _ ...... .^. .. _. ^. ..._.__._. _ _ _ _. .__._.. ~~~~~. . . .-..-._._..... .... 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 . _ ... ^ . ....~ _.. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy . _..-..-. _..-..-.....-. -........... ..~ „. ..............................^ 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders— _.'„ ... »- ._.. .-.»..........-. . . .-.............. -........_ _. -. _...... 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Wholesale Prices Consumer Prices. Changes in Wholesale Prices. Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ... ~ ...-..-.....-.»-. -. .. _ ...'...... .. ..-. 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit .......................... Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves -. ~......-.-._ Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations .Interest Rates and Bond Yields ,_ _ _ . . . Common Stock Prices and Yields _ _ _ ............. ^. -....... -. -................... ~....,~..........~. -..-._. ......._... _ .... .-... -.....-. -..- ....-....... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function ~ Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis. _. _. _.. -..-. .^ *-. _..~.. -. — ~ ^.. . -..........,~. 32 33 34 Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries........ -. _. -..~. -. ^. -. -. ^. ^. ^. ^.. -. ^. ^. ^. U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. .................. „-. _........... ^..-..-. ^. ^..._. ^.. _. ^..-. -. ^. ^..-. ^ ^.. ^.. _ »_ ^, ^. ^.. U.S. International Transactions ^.. _.... _. ^.. ^.. ^. ^^. ^.^^^.^.^^ 35 35 36 .-.... _ . ,. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 85 cents (single copy). Subscription price: $10.10 per year; $2.55 additional for foreign mailing. 38 ».S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1977