creator Fernald, John G. 8236 U.S. labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out "bubble economy" stories related to housing or finance. The slowdown is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower underlying productivity growth implies less economic slack than recently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office. As of 2013, about of the shortfall of actual output from (overly optimistic) pre-recession trends reflects a reduction in the level of potential. eng Working Paper 2014-15 10.24148/wp2014-15 multipart 2014-06-05 June 5, 2014 639447 2026-02-10 09:25:16 2023-07-19 10:39:09 item E23 E32 O41 O47 text

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