creator Kim, Hee Soo 14560 creator Matthes, Christian 1979- 4244 creator Phan, Toan 10327 <p>An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title "Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy"</p> article <p>We investigate the impacts of severe weather shocks on the U.S. macroeconomy over the past sixty years. Using a smooth transition vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impacts become significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent up to 20 months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to increased severe weather in the U.S., at least at the macroeconomic level.</p> eng Working Paper 21-14R https://doi.org/10.21144/wp21-14 multipart 2021-08-11 August 11, 2021, revised October 13, 2022 605005 2026-02-25 13:32:17 2021-08-18 23:47:07 item E23, Q54 text

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45 pages born digital application/pdf https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/working-papers-federal-reserve-bank-richmond-3942/severe-weather-macroeconomy-605005 https://iiif.slf.digirati.io/presentation/item/605005 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/api/item/605005 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/historical/frbrich/wp/frbrich_wp21-14r.pdf https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/text/historical/frbrich/wp/frbrich_wp21-14r.txt 3942 creator Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 521 For more information on rights relating to this item, please see: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/working-papers-federal-reserve-bank-richmond-3942/severe-weather-macroeconomy-605005