{
    "name": [
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            "namePart": [
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        {
            "role": "creator",
            "namePart": [
                "Jones, John Bailey"
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    "genre": [
        "article"
    ],
    "abstract": [
        "We forecast the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on loan delinquency rates under three scenarios for unemployment and house price movements. In the baseline scenario, our model predicts that loan delinquency rises from 2.3% in 2019 to a peak of 3.9% in 2025 with a total of $580 billion in write-offs. In 2021, absent policy intervention, the model predicts that delinquency would be 3.1%. However, mortgage forbearance, student loan forbearance, and fiscal transfers keep delinquency from increasing in 2021. The greatest reductions in delinquency are achieved through mortgage forbearance and student loan forbearance, with fiscal transfers playing a smaller role. In the our adverse (favorable) scenario, loan delinquency peaks at 8.1% (2.8%) and write-offs total $1.1 trillion ($420 billion).<br>"
    ],
    "language": [
        "eng"
    ],
    "titleInfo": [
        {
            "title": "Loan Delinquency Projections for COVID-19 ",
            "titlePartNumber": "Working Paper 20-02"
        }
    ],
    "identifier": [
        {
            "$": "https:\/\/doi.org\/10.21144\/wp20-02",
            "@type": "doi"
        }
    ],
    "originInfo": {
        "issuance": "multipart",
        "sortDate": "2020-04-15",
        "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond",
        "dateIssued": "April 15, 2020"
    },
    "recordInfo": {
        "recordIdentifier": [
            "588478"
        ],
        "recordUpdatedDate": "2026-02-23 17:38:34",
        "recordCreationDate": "2020-04-17 10:29:31",
        "recordType": "item"
    },
    "typeOfResource": "text",
    "physicalDescription": {
        "form": "electronic",
        "extent": "16 pages",
        "digitalOrigin": "born digital",
        "internetMediaType": [
            "application\/pdf"
        ]
    },
    "location": {
        "url": [
            "https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/title\/working-papers-federal-reserve-bank-richmond-3942\/loan-delinquency-projections-covid-19-588478"
        ],
        "iiif_manifest_url": [
            "https:\/\/iiif.slf.digirati.io\/presentation\/item\/588478"
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        ],
        "pdfUrl": [
            "https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/docs\/historical\/frbrich\/wp\/frbrich_wp20-02.pdf"
        ],
        "textUrl": [
            "https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/files\/text\/historical\/frbrich\/wp\/frbrich_wp20-02.txt"
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        {
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            "titleInfo": [
                {
                    "title": "Working Papers (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)"
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                {
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                    "namePart": [
                        "Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond"
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    "accessCondition": "For more information on rights relating to this item, please see: https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/title\/working-papers-federal-reserve-bank-richmond-3942\/loan-delinquency-projections-covid-19-588478"
}