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Aprilft),1 H 9 are the proepeota for continued recovery in 1939 and 1940? How noon nay we expect the national ineoiae to reaoli i level of |#0 billion a year? Wh&t are the threat a to eontlmte4 recovery? otn 1. l f e outlook for 1039 Is for lt |« fwo vieve w«re expr#gs@d on the outlook for 1940, (a) A majority expressed the vlaw that « business decline would develop in the second or third quarter of 1940. (b) A. minority tmtfeitti the ftMMI that thers would b© continued business improvement in tM0« 3, In the opinion of the majority the inadequacy of the IMMP recovery mm! | M probability of a decline In 1940 justify a program of aetlon by the Government. 4* T>i® mot® optimistic minority opinion did not eavieage enough improveaent /i urinr 1?«4') to r*s&ofe a national income of more than $?S^?S billion, the majority exyresfted $h® view that the rat© of national ineome in 1940 would not reach the 193? limt ^ i e h vae H O billion. B. The national Income will not re&dh a of ¥80 billion,ftyear l t 1940 and there la Vtff little i p P H V M t that It will rc'soh moii n level in 1941 even assuming A moderate price rise, ThQ ©srli^st ^ s i in sa* which there is a real possibility of attaining a $30 billion ttltTfi l&SHrase, assuming u continued Faetors ^licli will promote recovery during of 1939 laAtaltt (a) the current high of oonsumption relative to production, (b) continued of the building industry, (c) the ^overnaent*s ^' oontributlon. to f t n m i purchasing poverf and (d) M M expansion of inetnllment credit. 7, la M M majority view, NtfMtHI to continued In 1940 iM&aitl (a) Aiff eurtgilsmnt of the oontrlbution to general puro&aeinf p i M # | (b) too rapid price advances e^eoially in building material and labor, Co) a sharp inorta.sa In private savings us eora~ pared with conaustptlan expenditure af and, as a result, (d) an inadequate volume of i^rivate capital expenditures. In the minority view, the present high l&Nil of aojiBUMptlon will pull production and esiployHtent t p to i %MN&*$ and fresh i^>etu^ « t U ii given the i&ocement 1 A 1940 hf o&pital goods txpaniion and by replenishment of inventories.