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Aprilft),1 H 9
are the proepeota for continued recovery
in 1939 and 1940? How noon nay we expect the national
ineoiae to reaoli i level of |#0 billion a year? Wh&t are
the threat a to eontlmte4 recovery?

otn
1.

l f e outlook for 1039 Is for
lt

|«

fwo vieve w«re expr#gs@d on the outlook

for 1940,
(a) A majority expressed the vlaw that
« business decline would develop in the second
or third quarter of 1940.
(b) A. minority tmtfeitti the ftMMI that
thers would b© continued business improvement

in tM0«
3,

In the opinion of the majority the

inadequacy of the IMMP recovery mm! | M probability of
a decline In 1940 justify a program of aetlon by the
Government.
4*

T>i® mot® optimistic minority opinion did

not eavieage enough improveaent

/i

urinr 1?«4') to r*s&ofe

a national income of more than $?S^?S billion,
the majority exyresfted $h® view that the rat© of national
ineome in 1940 would not reach the 193? limt ^ i e h vae

H O billion.



B.

The national Income will not re&dh a

of ¥80 billion,ftyear l t 1940 and there la Vtff little
i
p P H V M t that It will rc'soh moii n level in 1941 even
assuming A moderate price rise, ThQ ©srli^st ^ s i in
sa*
which there is a real possibility of attaining
a $30 billion ttltTfi l&SHrase, assuming u continued

Faetors ^licli will promote recovery during
of 1939 laAtaltt

(a) the current high

of oonsumption relative to production, (b) continued
of the building industry, (c) the ^overnaent*s
^' oontributlon. to f t n m i purchasing poverf and
(d) M M expansion of inetnllment credit.
7,

la M M majority view, NtfMtHI to continued

In 1940 iM&aitl

(a) Aiff eurtgilsmnt of the

oontrlbution to general puro&aeinf p i M # |
(b) too rapid price advances e^eoially in building material
and labor, Co) a sharp inorta.sa In private savings us eora~
pared with conaustptlan expenditure af and, as a result,
(d) an inadequate volume of i^rivate capital expenditures.
In the minority view, the present high l&Nil
of aojiBUMptlon will pull production and esiployHtent t p to
i
%MN&*$

and fresh i^>etu^ « t U ii given the

i&ocement 1 A 1940 hf o&pital goods txpaniion and
by replenishment of inventories.