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Form F.R. 131
BDARD DF BDVERNDRS
DF THE

FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

3ffice Correspondence
To

Chairman Eccles

From

Date Maron «i t 1940
Subject:

Balle Despres

In view of the columnists1 field day over unemployment
estimates, you may be interested in the range estimates presented
in a confidential memorandum recently prepared by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and sent to me by Dr. Lubin. The memorandum
states that reasonable estimates of the average number unemployed
in 1939 might range from 8,100,000 to 12,400,000, depending upon
the assumptions used. The range estimate for January 1940 is
given at 9,200,000 to 13,500,000. Unemployment in 1939 is estimated to have averaged 6,500,000 to 10,800,000 higher than in
1929.
The foregoing estimates include as unemployed those who
are on WPA, in COO camps, and on HYA work projects. This number
totals 2,766,000 for January 1940. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
has not made public any estimate of unemployment.