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April 22, 1941 Chairman Eccles Emile Deepres Attached are a short memorandum analysing the earnings outlook for the steel.industry in 1941, and a longer memorandum prepared early this year reviewing the wa^e prior relationships in the industry. The steel industry's first quarter's earnings, converted to an annual basis, would amount to about $420,000,000, or an annual rate of return of 13% on book value. This compares with profits of '269,000,000, equivalent to an 8 ^ rat? of return in 1940. The recent wage increase will raise the industry's coats by about $80,000,000 during the idlimtei of t h i s y i » . In addition, somewhat higher trices will be oaid for some raw materials. O the other n hand, expansion in volume of operations is likely to continue, though at a gradual rate. Leaving aeide a possible, sharp increase in excess profits taxes, the industry should earn close to 1400,000,000 in 1941, or about 12^ on book value, if steel -orices are held to present levels. April 22, H. C. Barton, Jr. KECENT CHANGES IN WAGE, PRICE ±MI) rKOFIT B2UTI0XSHX?S IB 1HB bTML INDCTSTKY On the basis of preliminary data it appears that the steel industry earned about $105,0JO,000 in the first quarter of 1941. These profits amount to en &miu£4- rate of return on capital stock and surplus of about 13$. An income statement for the industry comparing 1940 experience with that of the first quarter of 1941 is shown in the following table. Value of shipments Wages Other costs 1/ Profits Rate of return on capital stock and surplus Millions of dollars 1940 1941 194C (first querter rate) 4,100 2,959 731 914 1,909 2,766 269 420 If prices actually realized by steel producers are held to present levels, experience during the remainder of 1941 niay not be quite so favorable from an earnings standpoint. Factors making for higher total costs are (1) the ten-cent an hour wage advance effective for most of the industry in April, (2} t possible increase in the excess profits tax, and (3) somewhat higher prices for some materials, particularly coal. On the other hand, continued gradual expansion in volume of output will tend to increase profits. Taking all these factors into account it seems likely that steel profits in 1941 will be in the neighborhood of 1400,000,000, an increase 1/ Other costs include taxes. The proposed 30^ rate eppears to hove been generally used in the first quarter as the basis for accruals. V -2- of tibout #130,000,000 over 1940 • even after the cbsorpticn of about $30,000,000 in wage rate increccee. At this level the rate of return would be about 12^» s figure about the seme ss in 1929 t&4 higher than any year oince then. CONFIDENTIAL February 18, 1941 WAGE-PRICE RELATIONSHIPS IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY H* C# Barton, Jr# and Guy !• Hunn Efforts to maintain stable prices are being made in connection with the defense program, and questions are being raised concerning the effects on prices of increases in wage rates which now seem lilrely to occur • Does every wage increase necessitate a price increase? If not, what are the relationships between wages and prices and what sort of wage policy is consistent with an effort to maintain stable prices? The relationship of wages and prices in the steel industry is of particular interest because of the substantial uniformity of price quotations throughout the industry, the insistence of a number of industry spokesmen that prices must be raised if wage increases are granted, and because price rises in a basic commodity like steel are likely to induce increases elsewhere in the economy• TJage-price relationships in steel are of immediate interest, moreover, because a considerable number of union contracts expire before Spring. About 75% of the industry is now organized and wage increases are being sought in negotiations which are already under way* It is not a purpose of the present memorandum to recomnend levels for wages, prices or profits in the steel industry* Nor is it intended to deal with the many theoretical issues involved in changes in wage rates, such as capacity of consumer goods industries, wage differentials and income distribution, taxation and other aspects of fiscal policy* The memorandum is limited to an analysis of relationships between 7/ages and prices in the -2steel industry and to consideration of some of the quantitative aspects of differing levels of wages* prices and profits during the coming year. Productivity in the Steel Industry Expansion of American industry has accompanied the sale of more goods at lower prices to consumers, many of whom are the wage earners in industry itself« The basic economic factor underlying wage increases, price reductions, or both, is increasing productivity* Productivity, usually ex- pressed in terms of output per manhour, has for years been rising in prac~ tically all industries for which data to measure its course are available• Output has increased more than manhours of employment, and thus progressively less labor is required to produce a given quantity of goods• Overall data illustrating tho increasing productivity of labor employed directly in the iron and steel industry are shown in chart 1# The general growth in the output per manhour' index \J shown on the chart reflects the long-run tendency of output per manhour to rise as a result of improved technology, industrial management, and development of higher skill in the working force. Year-to-year variations about this broad movement reflect short-run changes in efficiency resulting from fluctuations in the level of operations• Thus, while year-to-year changes in the output per manhour series reflect in part fluctuations in production, its dominant upward movement reflects increasing productivity* In both 1919 and 1939, for example, production was relatively high, but during the interval output per manhour increased 166 percent, Construction of index described in statistical appendix* Adjustment has been made in the production and output per manhour figures for changes in types of steol produced• CHART I PRODUCTION, EMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT PER MANHOUR IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY INDEX INDEX ANNUAL INDEX NUMBERS, 1919=100 300 300 y 250 / 250 f OUTPIJT PE R MANHOUR 200 200 r r 150 I ^ A •• \ •• •* • • • 100 m / "• \ \ \ \ ...-••• •. PRC IDUCTION % •• 9 • \ • •• • < •• • 150 / : • • • • • • m 100 • • \ \ \ \ 50 w • % * • * y * » \ * > N \ \ V 50 ^ ++ " VNHOURS OF EMPLOYMEI ^T 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 -3- indicating fairly closely the rise in productivity that occurred in the last two decades* Comparison of years with high operating rates, such as 1920 and 1940, or with low operating rates, such as 1921 and 1938, shows similar increases in productivity. This upward trend was scarcely interrupted by the decline in operations between 1929 and 1932, when production dropped 74 percent and output per manhour declined only 4 percent• Recent Changes in Output per Manhour The production and manhours indexes shown in chart 2 on a quarterly basis reflect the sharp changes in output that have occurred during the past seven years* Over this period production has risen more than manhours, and output per manhour has increased accordingly* The output per manhour index based on these data is shown a s the broken line in chart 4« . A part of this rise in output per manhour reflects changes in the kinds of steel produced that occurred after the outbreak of war in Europe• Exports of the less highly fabricated steel products, such as billets and slabs, have risen sharply and production of these products has increased more rapidly than has production of the more highly fabricated products such as wire and tinplato. Fewer manhours per ton are required to produce these semi-finished products than are needed for more highly fabricated products and it is partly on this account that the total tonnage of steel produced has recently risen so much more rapidly than employment. These differences in manhour requirements are shown in chart 3# The number of manhours required to manufacture a gross ton of the various classes of steel products ranged from 14 for ingots, billets, blooms, etc., to 58 for tinplate during 1934-35, when these data were compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These data havo boon used in constructing CHART Z PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY 1935-39 AVERAGE -100 INDEX 180 160 140 120 MANHOURS OF EMPLOYMENT 100 80 60 40 40 20 20 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -4- a quarterly index l/ of changes in output per manhour that would have been expected had there been no change in output per manhour within any individual class of steel, in other words, changes in overall output per manhour resulting from changes in the composition of steel output. By dividing this index into the index of actual output per manhour shown on chart 4, there is obtained an adjusted index, shown on chart 4 by a heavy line, which reflects the increase in output per manhour arising from increased production and productivity but not that from changes in the kinds of steel produced* The rise in the adjusted output per manhour index has been fairly steady except for the interruption caused by the sharp doclino in operations during the latter part .of 1937 and the first part of 1938• It corresponded closely to the unadjusted index until the last quarter of 1939, and since then has risen much loss* Over the seven-year period, output per manhour, as adjusted, rose about 45 percent, and botvfcon the first half of 1937 and the last half of 1940, 7/hen operations were at similar high levels, productivity increased by about 17 percent* Wage Costs In this section data on the physical aspects of rising productivity in the steel industry are translated into financial terns in which value corresponds to tonnage and total wages to manhours* Changes in value and wages reflect, of course, changes in prices and wage rates* Finally, wages per dollar of steel shipped, that is wage costs, are calculated* Increasing productivity tends to lower wage costs per dollar of output• This tendency is modified by changes in average wages and in average prices* 1/ See statistical appendix for the method followed in constructing this index* CHART 3 MANHOURS REQUIRED PER GROSS TON OF STEEL PRODUCTS INGOTS, BILLETS, ETC STRUCTURAL SHAPES CONCRETE REINFORCING BARS MERCHANT BARS BLACKPLATE WHEELS.AXLES.ETC. PIPE. TUBING MANHOURS PER TON CHART 4 OUTPUT PER MANHOUR IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY 1935-39 AVERAGE^100 INDEX 140 130 120 110 100 110 OUTPUT PER MANHOUR ADJUSTED OUTPUT PER MANHOUR 100 90 90 80 80 70 ADJUSTED FOR CHANGES IN COMPOSITION OF TOTAL TONNAGE 1934 1935 70 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -5Indexes of average hourly wages paid and of average prices realized per ton of steel l/ are shown in chart 5# They reflect changes in the composition of employees and of steel tonnage as well as changes in wage rates and list prices. Even when wage rates are constant there are fluctuations in average hourly v/ages reflecting variations in the number of workers employed at differing pay scales, variations in the degree of activity in high and in low wage concerns, and changes in the amount of overtime worked # Factors affecting average prices aro even more numerous* In addition to changes in list prices thcro are frequently changes in the volume of steel sold below list prices, changes in freight basing points, and changes in extras and deductions for various kinds and quantities of steel delivered• These changes affect the amount realized by a mill from the sale of a particular product. Beyond this are the changes in composition of tonnage sold that affect the average yield on total tonnage. The sharp decline in average prices shorm for tho third quarter of 1940, for example, came at a time when list prices were practically constant but when somo increases wore being mado in extras and v/hon export prices were generally rising. During this quarter, however, exports and domestic shipments of semi-finished (relatively low priced) products expanded markedly and the decline in average price was mainly tho composite result of this change in tho kinds of products sold. Tho principal movements in average wages and average prices, however, reflect changes in v/ago rates and in list prices. Two wage rato increases of about ton percent oach, the latter mainly confined to tho organized 1/ See statistical appendix for methods of constructing these indexes. CHART 5 AVERAGE PRICES AND AVERAGE WAGES IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY 1935-39 AVERAGE^ 100 INDEX 130 90 80 80 —i 70 70 60 60 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -6portion of the industry, were made during late 19S6 and early 1937 and are clearly reflected in the average hourly wage series shown in chart 5« There have been several minor changes in list prices but the principal increases occurred in the latter part of 1936 and the first part of 1937, and the main decline in the middle of 1938 • These changes in list prices are reflected in the level of the average price series shown in chart 5, but the rise in the price of steel shipped became effective somewhat later and the decline somewhat earlier than tho dates on which changes in list prices were announced• Data on average hourly wages and on the total number of manhours worked have already beon examined separately* Their movements are roflocted compositcly in the indox of total wages paid shown on chart 6* Similarly, movements in average realized prices and in tho tonnage of steol shipped are reflected in the value of shipments index also shown in chart 6* The composite result of changes in all four factors (average wages, total manhours, average prices, and volume of shipments) are reflected in the index of wages paid per dollar of steel shipped, shown in chart 7» During 1935, 1936 and the first half of 1937 wages paid per dollar of steel shipped remained fairly constant. During this period output per manhour was rising fairly steadily* The decline in wage costs that rising output per manhour tends to bring was offset by increases in average wages in 1934 and by decreases in average prices during 1935 and the first part of 1936 • In the latter part of 1936 and the first half of 1937 there was an increase in wages sufficient to offset both the continued rise in output per manhour and an increase in prices# During the middle of 1937 there was a considerable rise in wages paid por dollar of steol shipped and tho higher level reached was for the CHART 6 WAGES PAID AND VALUE OF SHIPMENTS IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY 1935-39 AVERAGE'100 INDEX INDEX 180 180 160 '— 160 A 140 S IMNS //\|\ HP E T 100 — 80 60 40 i / jl / 120 // I \ I j/ VAGES /= \ / - 140 / 120 us 100 80 60 \7\ 40 20 20 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -7- most part maintained until the beginning of 1939• This reflected the drop in output per manhour accompanying the sharp decline in operating rates during the last half of 1937 • Average prices advanced further and remained high during the low level of operations in late 1937 and the first half of 1938, but they only partly offset low output per manhour, and wage costs remained high* Since the beginning of 1939, the amount of wages paid per dollar of steel shipped has declined substantially, and during the latter part of 1939 and throughout 1940 wage costs were lower than at any other time in the past seven years• This decline in wage costs reflected mainly rising output per manhour, wages and prices having been generally stable• The sharp docline in average prices during the third quarter was, as has already been indicated, a reflection of the -unusually large quantity of lower-priced products shipped, but these products also required fewer manhours per ton, and wage costs per dollar of steel sold did not rise* From current levels wage costs per dollar of product could rise considerably (whether as a result of price decreases, wage increases, or a drop in manhour output) and still remain below the average prevailing from the beginning of 1934 through the first three quarters of 1939• Other Costs and Profits Although it appears to be possible to increase wage rates considerably or to decrease prices somewhat without raising wage costs per dollar of product above the average of recent years, it might be that other costs would be prohibitive• Detailed analysis of other costs such as those for raw materials, salaries, depreciation allowances, interest, and taxos is beyond the scope of this memorandum* It is possible, however, to determine CHART 7 WAGES PAID PER DOLLAR OF STEEL PRODUCTS SHIPPED INDEX 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE=100 INDEX 120 120 K no IOO V —\— Vv r A 100 \ 90 90 80 80 70 70 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -8- fairly accurately the composite movements of such cost factors by deducting from the total value of products shipped the sum of wage costs and profits• Net earnings, or profits, of 31 steel companies are shown in chart 8. These data cover total earnings of the companies, from whatever source derived, while all the other data used in this memorandum cover specif# ically the operations of the iron and steel industry* All the 31 companies produce iron and steel products but some of them are also engaged in mining, shipbuilding, and other nonsteel producing lines. For this reason their net earnings figures, shown in the chart, cover earnings from their nonsteel as well as from their steol operations. On the other hand, only a part of the total earnings from iron and steel manufacturing are accounted for directly in the combined income statements of these 31 companies sinco there are many other concerns in the industry. There is some evidence, however, that the nonsteel earnings of the 31 companies included in the figures are roughly equivalent to steel earnings of all other companies not included in the figures. Earnings of the 31 companies have ranged from 71 to 84 percent of earnings of the much larger number of companies ("comprising more than 95/£ of the capacity and production of the industry") that report to the American Iron and Steel Institute#l/ These reporting companies paid from 80 to 83 percent of their 1/ Earnings o f 31 companies are annual totals of data shown on chart 8. i Earnings of the "more than 95 percent" sample taken for the years 1S34 and 1935 from the first table in the Annual Statistical Report for 1935 published by the American Iron and Steel Institute. Because the Institute data refer to a changing sample of firms from one annual report to the next, data for the years after 1935 are totals derived by applying to the 1935 and later derived figures the percent change between the pairs of annual figures covering identical firms published in each subsequent annual report• CHARTS NET EARNINGS OF 31 STEEL COMPANIES MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 00 100 / / 80 60 1 40 20 0 / A A / J \J 1934 60 40 / \ j V f / 20 / V 20 80 -20 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 total payrolls to employees engaged in steel making.l/ Assuming that this distribution of payrolls is a rough indication of the extent to which the total earnings of steel companies are derived from their steel operations, it would appear that roughly 80 percent of all steel company earnings are derived from steel making, which is about the same percentage that profits of the 31 companies are of all steel company profits* Total earnings of the 31 companies shown on chart 8 may, therefore, be nearly equal to the portion of the total earnings of all steel companies that is derived from mnufacturing steel* Such a largo part of steel profits is covered directly by the 31 companios, moreover, that evon if the rate of return to these companies on their steol business is considerably different from that of other steel making concerns and even if the distribution of profits between steel-making and other lines is considerably different from that of payrolls, the effects of these differences on the profits series would be slight. For this reason the figures shown on chart 8, though referred to as profits of 31 companies, probably indicate reasonably accurately, in their general movements, the changes in earnings of the steel "industry" and they are in this sense comparable with the other data used in the memorandum. A series for other costs was derived by adding wages in the steel industry to these profit figures and subtracting the total from the total value of steel shipments. This series, also, while probably reasonably 1/ Total payrolls for (December) 1934 and 1935 taken from the first table in the Annual Statistical Report for 1935 of the American Iron and Steel Institute and carried forward by means of link relatives computed from total payrolls figures in subsequent annual reports* Salaries and wages paid to employees engaged in the manufacture of iron and steel products compiled by the American Iron and Steel Institute and published on page 33 of Ponton1 s Almanac, 1940-1941 # -10accurate in its general movements, may not be precise in its quarterly fluctuations, since its accuracy depends on the profits series• The other costs series, moreover, includes a substantial amount of payment for personal services• Some of these payments are direct, as in the case of the approxi- mately $40,000,000 a quarter paid in salaries to employees engaged in stocl manufacture which are excluded from the series for wages; and some are indirect, such as the salaries and wages to employoes of raw materials producers • At times, particularly when profits are high as in the fourth quarter of 1940, the other costs series probably includes an element of profit, sinco more than adequate reserves arc set aside and expenses ordinarily capitalized arc charged against current income* These limitations in the data should be borne in mind when examining chart 9, in which wages, other costs, and profits are shown as percentages of the total value of shipments and in considering the conclusions in the final section of the memorandum* The influence of items of overhead cost are apparent in the movements of the series for other costs per dollar of sales shown in chart 9 # Other costs decline as activity rises and increase as activity falls* Raw materials costs, which generally move in an opposite direction, seem to be less important than overhead. At current peak levels of operations other costs are near the lows of the entire period* That they are somewhat above the last quarter of 1936 and the first three quarters of 1937 may reflect a longer-run tendency of other costs to rise as the steel industry becomes more highly mechanized and as taxes increase* This rise has not boon sufficient to offset the decline in wage costs, however, and profits per dollar of sales are slightly higher than at any time in the period* CHART 9 WAGES, OTHER COSTS AND PROFITS PER DOLLAR OF STEEL SHIPPED PER CENT PER GENT 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 WAGES 20 20 -20 -20 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -11- Implications for T e g and Price Policy fte It appears from chart 9 that other costs have not offset the decline in wage costs and that they have both been declining fairly steadily for the past two and a half years• VJith current orders for steel exceeding the capacity of the industry and with unfilled orders amounting to several months of peak production, a continuation of output at the lovol of the fourth quarter of 1940 would seem to be a minimum forecast for 1941. In the following table the experience of the steel industry in 1940 is compared ydth an approximate income statement for 1941 which is based on the assumption that volume, prices, wages and other costs in the industry are unchanged from fourthquarter 1940 levels• Millions of dollars 1941 (at rate of fourth-quarter 1940) x Total value of shipments Wages Other costs Profits (31 companies) 2,966 781 1,921 3,539 891 2,334 264 364 It is not the purpose of this memorandum to suggest a "proper" rate of return on investment for the steel industry, "just" prices for steel consumers, or "fair" wages for employees• If, however, fourthquarter 1940 conditions prevail in 1941, the rate of return on the capital stock and surplus invested in the steel industry will be between 11 and 12 percent^ As is indicated by chart 10, this figure is considerably above the rate of return in any of the preceding seven years• The prospective earnings of the stool companies in 1941 may be distributed in a number of ways» They may bo all retained or paid to stock- holders, a part of thorn may be distributed through higher taxation and government expenditure, or their total amount may bo reduced by higher wages or CHART 10 RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL OF 31 STEEL COMPANIES PER CENT PER CENT 12 10 8 i' \ I A A -2 A \ >f '\/ W I V r V / / A / A / /\- ^ / /^ /, / / / 10 8 / \ / V 1934 12 -2 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 -12lower prices• No computations are needed to illustrate the effects on a consolidated "income statement" for the industry of retention of earnings, payments to stockholders or taxation• The quantitative aspects of higher wages and lower prices may be illustrated by the following examples* In the first a wage increase of 10% is assumed, the amount reported to bo sought by the unions in current negotiations• It is applied in the follows ing example to tho entire industry rathor than to tho organized portion of iti Vfagos lO^o higher during 1941: Millions of dollars 3,589 980 2,334 275 Total value of sales Wages Other costs Profits (31 companies) With total wages increasing 10^, from 891 to 980 million dollars, profits decline from 364 to 275 million dollars• The remaining profits, however, constitute a return of 9% on the invested capital of the 31 companies, a figure above that for any of the preceding seven years« The position of industry spokesmen who say that under present conditions a wage increase necessitates a price increase is tenable only if it is agreed that 9% profits are inadequate. The following example illustrates tho effects on prospective 1941 earnings of a 2^%> decline in average realized prices. A decline of this magnitude would reduce prices nearly to the average, shown on chart 5, for the years 1934-36 and to a level substantially below the 1937 peak* Roalizod prices Z^% lowor in 1941: Total value of shipments Wages Other costs Profits (31 companies) Millions of dollars 3,499 891 2,334 274 The 274 million dollars of profits remaining after an assumed 2%% decline in prices would also constitute a return of about 9% on the investment of the 31 companies included in chart 10• STATISTICAL APPENDIX Chart 1. Production, Employment, and Output per Manhour in the Steel Industry, Annual Index Numbers, 1919 - 100. Covers blast furnaces, steel works and rolling mills. Production and manhours indexes, 1919-36 based on data in Production, Employment and Productivity, 1PA National Research Project, Part II, page 99, table 29. Production index of the National Research Project based on Census and American Iron and Steel Institute data for pig iron and 31 steel products combined by means of estimated value added weights. Manhours series covers wage earners only and is based on BLS employment data and 3LS and NIC3 average weekly hours. Production and manhours indexes carried forward from 1936 by means of Institute data described under Chart 2. Output per manhour index through 1936 obtained by dividing production index by manhours index; carried through 1940 by means of annual averages of adjusted output per manhour series shown in Chart 4« Because the production index through 1936 is a composite of all important classes of steel weighted according to the estimated value added to each by manufacture and because of adjustment in the output per manhour series since 1936, the output per manhour series throughout is free from the influence of changes in the composition of the products covered. Chart 2. Production and Employment in the Steel Industry; 1935-39 average * 100. Based on American Iron and Steel Institute data. The production and manhours figures used ax^e reported by substantially the same list of companies and these companies have nearly the entire ingot and steel for castings capacity shown by the Census. Institute production figures, avail- able only on a quarterly basis prior to April 1940, cover steel produced for sale, excluding intra-industry shipments. Manhours figures are totals of reported wage-earner manhours in blast furnaces, steelworks, and rolling mills. A small element of nonccmparability between the production and manhours data arises from the exclusion of iron and steel castings from the production series. Production index shown on Chart 2 is based on daily averages of quarterly 'Institute figures for total net tons using a 7^day week and three holidays; July 4, Labor Day (1/2 holiday prior to 1937 and full holiday, 1937 to date), and December 25* Since the index is computed from the total tonnage figure rather than from weighted figures for the various individual classes of steel products, it contains no allowance for changes in the composition of tonnage. Manhours index is based on daily averages of quarterly figures with the same working day and holiday allowances as for production. Chart 3. Manhours Required per Gross Ton of Steel Products. Data, taken from a study of 15 concerns made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and published in the Monthly Labor Review for May 1935. Data are for manhours of wage earners in the manufacture of the various steel products with the mills operating at between 55 and 60 per cent of capacity. The absolute number of manhours required for each class of product varies with the level of operation of the industry and with changes in productivity, but the relative requirements of the various classes probably remain fairly stable except when a technical innovation, such as the continuous rolling mill, is introduced which affects mainly one class. Even •with this quoJLifi cation, however, the data are sufficiently accurate to serve as weights in obtaining an index of total manhour requirements resulting fron changes in the composition of steel tonnage# Chart 4« Output per Manhour in the Steel Industry; 1935-39 average * 100. Unadjusted index obtained directly from production and manhours indexes shown on Chart 2 # The index adjusted for changes in the composition of steel tonnage was obtained by dividing the unadjusted index by a quarterly index of choiges in output per manhour resulting from changes in composition of total tonnage# This adjusting index was obtained by (a) multiplying quarterly Institute figures for the tonnage of each class of steel produced by data (shown on Chart 3) for manhours per ton required for the corresponding class; (b) adding the results for all classes; and (c) dividing the aggregate manhours by total tonnage produced* Chart 5. Average Prices and Average Wages in the Steel Industry; 1935-39 average • 100. Index of average wages based on quarterly totals of Institute total monthly wages divided by quarterly totals of Institute figures for total hours worked by wage eCvrners, which yields average hourly earnings, quarterly. Covers wage earners in blast furnaces, steelworks, and rolling mills. Index of average prices derived by dividing total value of shipments, shown in index f o m on Chart 6, by total tons produced for sale shown in index form on Chart 2. The index is thus in effect one of realized prices for individual classes of steel weighted by the volume of each class shipped. Sharp drop in average prices in third quarter of 1940 reflects changed composition of shipments* Chart 6 # Wages Paid and Value of Shipments in the Steel Industry j 1935-39 average * 100. Index of wages paid based on monthly Institute figures for total wages. Covers blast furnaces> steelworks* and rolling mills. Index of value of shipments based on two quarterly series linked together and then adjusted to the levels shown by the Census of Manufactures for value of steelworks and rolling mill products produced for sale. An element of noncomparability between the wages and the value series arises from exclusion of cast-iron products from the value series. The first quarterly series covering 1934-38 Twas obtained by multiplying the Institute figures for net tons of the various classes of steel produced for sale by the corresponding or most nearly related mill net yield (price) figure published by the U«S. Steel Corporation in its TNEC papers* Volume II* pages 78-90* except in the co.se of tinplate* for which quoted base price was used. Mill net yield figures reflect not only the relatively infrequent movements of quoted prices but also the many reductions and extras charged in actual transactions. The U.S. Steel Corporation!s data, as well as covering directly a substantial portion of the sales of the industry* are also representative of much of the remainder because of the "wide variety of its products and its position of price leadership. The second quarterly series used was based on value of stoe3. shipments as reported by over 75 per cent of the industry to the Department of Commerce for 1939 and 194-0. Shipments data for the Iron and Steel group -5- are published monthly in a release, "Industry Survey", prepared in the Division of Business Review of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce* The data for steelworks and rolling mills separately were supplied on a confidential basis. These two quarterly series were linked by the change in total value between the fourth quarter of 1938 and the first quarter of 1939 indicated by Institute data for production of various classes of steel multiplied by quoted base prices for the corresponding classes* The linked series was then raised to the levels shown by the Census of Manufactures for value of steelworks and rolling mill products produced for sale in 1935, 1937, and 1939• The upward adjustment averaged 17 per cent in 1935j 23 per cent in 1937, and was constant .at 27 per cent during 1939 and 1940, Chart 7* Wages Paid per Dollar of Steel Products Shippedj 1935-39 average « 100 # Index of -wages paid per dollar of steel products shipped obtained by dividing the index of wages paid shorn on Chart 6 by the value of shipments index shown on Chart 6, Chart 8* Net Earnings of 31 Steel Companies* Covers all firms with blast furnace, steelworks and rolling mill capacity which publish regular quarterly earnings statements. These firms include approximately 90 per cent of the ingot capacity* 87 per cent of the hot rolling capacity, and 78 per cent of the cold rolling capacity reported by the American Iron and Steel Institute, (Institute coverage of production corresponds fairly closely with Census coverage*) -6- Net earnings are after all taxes, depreciation and depletion, and interest charges but before dividends. Chart 9. Wages, Other Costs, and Profits per Dollar of Steel Shipped. Wages, other costs, and profits expressed as percentage of value of shipments* Value of shipments and wages series same as in Chart 6 # Profits series seme as net income shown in Chart 8. Other ,costs series computed by subtracting "wages and profits series fran shipments series. The main movemonts shown by the three series are probably fairly accurate. Accuracy of the level of the profits series, however, and consequently of other costs, is somewhat uncertain. Profits are compiled from reports of 31 companies rather than for the entire industry. Included in the net earnings of these companies* however* is an undetermined cmount of profit from nonsteel operations such as mining* shipping, and cement manufacture. The other costs series, therefore, includes the other costs of all companies minus profits of the 31 companies from nonsteel operations plus all profits of other companies. If profits of the 31 companies from nonsteel operations are about equal to total profits of all other steel companies* as is suggested on page 9 of the text* both the profits and other costs series are substantially accurate. Chart 10 # Rate of Return on Invested Capital of 31 Steel Companies. Earnings shovai in Chart 8 expressed as per cent of total capital stock (caramon and preferred) and surplus of the same companies as of end of preceding year. Data on capital and surplus compiled from Moodyfs Manual of Investments.