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FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON
MCDONALD
ADMINISTRATOR

June 22, 1939

Honorable Marriner S# Eccles
Board of Governors
Federal Reserve System
Washington, D» C*
Dear Marriner:
Our Division of Economics and Statistics feel
that they are fairly safe in making the attached estimate, from which we have prepared the enclosed chart,
indicating what they believe will be the residential
construction activity for the year 1939•




Sincerely yours,

Administrator

FHA Form No. 13
(.Revised Jan. 1,*1938)

FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION
MEMORANDUM

DATE
TO:

FROM:

|
£

SUBJECT:

June 21, 1939

Mr. Stewart McDonald

FORECAST OF 1939 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

Q^

On the basis of the information now available it is
our opinion that the number of nonfarm dwelling units likely
to be built during the calendar year 1939 will fall somewhere
between 415,000 and 4-70,000, indicating an increase of from
20$ to 35% over the 3^6,000 units estimated for 1938 by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.




K. C. Beede
Division of Economics and Statistics

ESTIMATED
NON-FARM

NUMBER

DWELLING

BUILT

OF
UNITS

ANNUALLY

BY TYPE

OF STRUCTURE

IN 3-OR

MORE

FAMILY

STRUCTURES

IN 2 - FAMILY

STRUCTURES

IN

STRUCTURES

I-FAMILY

1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940

COMMENTS
NO ACCURATE FIGURES EXIST AS TO THE NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS BUILT ANNUALLY IN
THE UNITED STATES. THESE ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON CENSUS DATA AND ON BUILDING PERMIT
DATA REPORTED BY THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC
RESEARCH ESTIMATES WERE USED FOR 1920 - 1935; ESTIMATES FOR 1936 TO DATE WERE MADE
BY THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS AND THE FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION.
THE FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION INSURES MORTGAGES ON STRUCTURES CONTAINING ONE
TO FOUR FAMILY DWELLING UNITS, INCLUSIVE; ALSO MORTGAGES ON MODERATE PRICED APARTMENTS.
THE BASIC DATA PRECLUDE ANY SEGREGATION OF THE ESTIMATES BY THESE PRECISE TYPES.

SOURCES:
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION




FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION
DIVISION OF ECONOMICS ft STATISTICS
CHART NO 553A (REVISED)
MARCH I, 1939

VALUE

OF RESIDENTIAL

AS
MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS

SHOWN

REPORTING

CONSTRUCTION

BY BUILDING

CITIES

OF

2,500

PERMITS

POPULATION

AND

OVER

140
1938
1939
•9*3%

100

60

20

JAN.

FEB.

MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS

APR.

MAR.

REPORTING

MAY

CITIES

JUNE

OF

JULY

10,000

AUG.

SEPT.

NOV.

OCT.

POPULATION

AND

1937

DEC.

OVER

1938

»00

1934

1935

1936

1939

COMMENTS
THESE

OFFICIAL

TYPES

FOR

SHOWN

BY

DIRECTION

WHICH
PERMITS
AND

THE

SERIES
PERMITS
MAY

AMOUNT

UPPER

THE

APPROXIMATELY

IN

IDENTICAL
IN

AFFECTS
TO

THE

CHANGES

SOURCE

OF

BUREAU
25514-R/5/27/39




LOWER

TOTALS
IN

NEW

THE

SLIGHTLY.
YORK

CITY

DATA:

LABOR

STATISTICS

IN
TO

IN

REPORTED
ACTUAL

MOST

ACCOUNT
BOTH

NUMBER

BUILDING

COST,

FOR

THE

SIZES

IN

FROM
CITIES

1936

AND

RESIDENTIAL
THE

FIGURES

SERIES

ALL

BUT

OF

CONSTRUCTION

UNITED

STATES.

NEVERTHELESS

OF A L L

THE

INDICATE

COST

THE

CONSTRUCTION.

86%

REPORTING

PEAKS

BUT

SOME

OF

COST

THROUGHOUT

COMPREHENSIVE

YEARS,

OF

SHARP

CITIES

RESIDENTIAL

COMMUNITIES

FOR

ESTIMATED

REPORTING

CURRENT

THE

REPORTING

MONTH

CHART

ONLY

BASIC
OF

CONFORM

CHANGE

REPRESENTATIVE

EACH

THE

ISSUED

REPRESENTS

CITIES

1,500

ARE

NOT
OF

CHART

COMMUNITIES.

REPRESENT
WERE

OF

OF
TOTAL

DOWN
MONTH

VARIES
AT

TO
TO
FROM

THE

PERMITS
URBAN
2,500
MONTH
708

BEGINNING

NOW

AVAILABLE

POPULATION,
POPULATION.
THEY
TO

THE

ARE

797,

OF

NOT

BUT

1938

FOR

AND

CITIES

IDENTICAL.

THIS

ARE

URBAN

INCLUDE

DUE

VARIATION
LARGELY

CODE.

FEDERAL
DIVISION

HOUSING
OF

ADMINISTRATION

ECONOMICS

CHART

a

NO. C - 5 1 6 B

STATISTICS