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October 28, 19^3 INFLATIONARY DANGERS Li ThK PRISoEMT BUDGET The Federal Government budget f i g u r e s f o r f i s c a l year according t o the l a t e s t o f f i c i a l p u b l i s h e d e s t i m a t e s , a r e as f o l l o w s ! Expenditures ( B i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) War a c t i v i t i e s ( i n c l u d i n g Government c o r p o r a t i o n s ) 100 I n t e r e s t on debt 3 6 Other Total 109 Receipts ( n e t ) I n d i v i d u a l income t a x e s Corporate income and excess p r o f i t s Other ( n e t ) 18 lU 7 D e f i c i t t o be borrowed _J£ 70 Assuming continuance o f t h e war on the present scale and no change i n taxes t h e budget may be r o u g h l y o f t h i s same order o f magnitude. This huge amount o f expenditures adds tremendously t o i n d i v i d u a l i n comes, w h i l e t h e goods being produoed are f o r war purposes and cannot be purchased w i t h these incomes. This i s an i n h e r e n t and unavoidable r e s u l t o f war, end the reason why wars a r e g e n e r a l l y accompanied or f o l l o w e d by i n f l a t i o n . The o n l y way t o be sure t h a t i n f l a t i o n w i l l be avoided i s t o balance Government expenditures by t a x e s . But i t i s d i f f i o u l t , i f not i m p o s s i b l e , t o i n c r e a s e taxes as r a p i d l y as e x p e n d i t u r e s . There saust i n e v i t a b l y be a l a g . I t should, however, be t h e aim o f p u b l i c p o l i c y f o r taxes g r a d u a l l y t o approach t h a t l e v e l , a l t h o u g h perhaps never reaohing i t . So f a r our taxes equal o n l y a t h i r d of our e x p e n d i t u r e s . The e f f e c t o f t h i s s i t u a t i o n on i n d i v i d u a l incomes, expenditures, and savings i s i n d i c a t e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g e s t i m a t e s , which have been presented by the Treasury, f o r the f i s c a l year 19U3-U4* and which are here given i n round nun&ers i I n d i v i d u a l incomes w i l l be about 130 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s Personal taxes 20 " Goods and s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e 90 * " f o r purchase by c i v i l i a n s Balance a v a i l a b l e f o r savings * * or f o r b i d d i n g up p r i c e s this I f t h i s 1+0 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s i s a l l saved, t h e r e should be no i n f l a t i o n year. Page 2 But, to this I4O b i l l i o n s should bo added about 3k b i l l i o n s tared l a s t year, 16 b i l l i o n s the year before, and another or 50 b i l l i o n s t h a t say be saved next year and possibly the year a f t e r , should var expenditures and $axes oontinue at around present l e v e l s . Most of these savings are being accumulated i n l i q u i d forms— eurrenoy, bank deposits, and war savxngs bonds—and are r e a d i l y a v a i l able f o r spending. Holdings of ourreney, bank deposits, and war savings bonds by individuals now t o t a l close to 90 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s , or about twice as much as i n prewar years. At present r a t e of expansion they may bo close to 150 b i l l i o n s a t the end of the war. i n addition, businesses hold 50 or 60 b i l l i o n s of l i q u i d assets—3 or k tines the prewar l e v e l . These funds represent a potential of buying power t h a t could bo added a t any time to current income and thus create a demand f o r goods and sorvioes i n excess o f current production. Rationing, i n a b i l i t y to get goods, patriotism, and other wartime influences may prevent i n f l a t i o n now, hut dependence on these influences i s r i s k y . The figures indicate t h a t people are saving a largo part of t h e i r incomes; the record also shows that they are spending more than they should and t h a t t h i s is i n t e r f e r i n g with the e f f e c t i v e prosecution of the war; Consumer expenditures have been l a r g e r than e a r l i e r estimates had indicated they would be—90 b i l l i o n s compared with estimates of about 80 b i l l i o n s — t l i i s is duo i n part to higher prices and i n part to increased production. This means t h a t scarce f a c i l i t i e s and manpower, needed for war purposes, have been used to maintain consumer l i v i n g standards at above prewar l e v e l s . This should not bo. Price control programs are running into great d i f f i c u l t i e s i n keeping prioes and wages from r i s i n g , and some increases are occurring. A l l of these figures are admittedly rough estimates, but i t i s believed t h a t they r e f l e o t conditions i n a broad way and oan bo used safely as guides to p o l i c i e s . They poosent i n simple sysfools the reasoning t h a t should form the basis of policy decisions. Suppose they should bo wrong? What are t h e possible errors? Government war expenditures have boon running a t a r a t e of 7 l / 2 b i l l i o n dollars a month, compared w i t h a budget estimate of 3 l / 2 b i l l i o n s * but i t was expected t h a t expenditures i n the e a r l i e r months would bo less than i n l a t e r months, and some f u r t h e r increase i s sohoduled. Any reduction i n expenditures, therefore, w i l l depend upon revisions of schedules, and t h i s i s a matter on whioh there i s no published information. Page 3 Receipts are running close to schedules) i t is yet too early to judge the f u l l e f f e o t of the taxes imposed l a s t summer) but i t is not l i k e l y t h a t f i n a l r e s u l t s w i l l vary fro a estimates by store than one or two b i l l i o n d o l l a r s . But suppose, to take an extreias example, the d e f i o i t should be as muoh as 10 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s less then current estimates, what e f f e o t would t h i s hare on the estimates and how should t h i s a f f e o t tax policy? Either national income would be less or consumer goods available for purchase would be more and personal taxes s l i g h t l y more, with the r e s u l t t h a t the balance available for saving might be reduced from around kO b i l l i o n s to around 30 b i l l i o n s . t h i s would s t i l l be tremendous, especially on top of a l l the savings t h a t have been accumulated. While, i n view of other controls and influences, a l l of this may be saved during the war, i t would add to the store of trouble for the f u t u r e . I t should be kept i n mind t h a t i n a balanced economy current income equals current produc t i o n and t h a t the spending of accumulated savings would increase buying power beyond the a v a i l a b l e supply of things t o buy. This may be desirable a t times, but i f i n large amount i t may create i n f l a t i o n . Tax programs proposed by the r r e s i d e n t and the Treasury and those enacted by Congress have a t no time since the beginning of the defense program i n I9I4O been adequate to f o r e s t a l l i n f l a t i o n a r y dangers inherent i n the war program. I n f a c t , the expansion i n expenditures has been so rapid t h a t i t was no doubt inadvisable and c e r t a i n l y inexpedient to impose the necessary amount of taxes on the p u b l i c . I t has been necessary to approach the objective gradually, but that objective i s s t i l l f a r away and t h i s i s no time to f a l t e r . So amount of curtailment of expenditures, short of seriously r e s t r i c t i n g the oonduot of the war, can remove the neeessity for a considerable f u r t h e r inorease i n taxes, i f i n f l a t i o n a r y dangers are to be avoided now and i n the f u t u r e . I t i s the task of statesmen to look ahead a t the possible consequences of t h e i r present actions} to exeroise foresight and v i s i o n . The p o t e n t i a l dangers i n the present budget s i t u a t i o n are unmistakable) the way to reduce these dangers i s c l e a r , and the country should and, I believe is prepared to f o l l o w t h a t road. I t would involve no great personal s a c r i f i c e s c e r t a i n l y less than would r e s u l t from i n f l a t i o n , and would greatly benefit the war e f f o r t . October 28, 1943. COMPULSORY SAVINGS There i a a d i s t u r b i n g tendency i n some q u a r t e r s t o underestimate the importance of s t r o n g f i s c a l a c t i o n a t t h i s t i m e . One reason would seem t o be t h a t , d e s p i t e a s e r i o u s and growing i n f l a t i o n a r y gap f o r more than a y e a r , no i n f l a t i o n a r y t o r r e n t has y e t gushed through i t . The e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h i s f o r t u n a t e b u t h i g h l y u n r e l i a b l e r e s u l t i s t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s have r e f r a i n e d from spending t h e f u l l amount o f t h e i r incomes. They have done so on a scale t h a t i s e n t i r e l y w i t h o u t precedent — and as a r e s u l t have immob i l i s e d f o r t h e time b e i n g a huge volume o f funds t h a t could have swamped the markets f o r goods. This circumstance suggests a f a c t o f c r u c i a l importance. The imm o b i l i z a t i o n o f those funds i s n o t assured. I t remains a m a t t e r o f d i s c r e t i o n w i t h the p u b l i c . And some day the p u b l i c can and may w e l l change the pace o f i t s buying. Considered from t h i s approach, a s t r o n g and p o s i t i v e case can and should be made f o r compulsory savings. The most common o b j e c t i o n t o compulsory savings i s t h a t v o l u n t a r y investment by i n d i v i d u a l s i n government s e c u r i t i e s would tend t o be reduced. The answer r e s t s on the f a c t t h a t t a x increases operate i n t h e same manner, and t h a t v o l u n t a r y l e n d i n g i s n o t t h e p r i m a r y {goal o f a f i s c a l program. The f i r s t aim o f a f i s c a l program i s t o p r o v i d e the Treasury w i t h assured sources o f revenue by compulsory means — h e r e t o f o r e , taxes. I f i t were p r a c t i c a b l e t o do the whole j o b t h i s way, no one i n a u t h o r i t y would w i s h t o r e l y on v o l u n t a r y c o n t r i b u t i o n s . Since t h a t i s n o t p r a c t i c a b l e , compulsory measures a r e used i n so f a r as t h e judgment o f Congress and the technique o f w r i t i n g e q u i t y i n t o t a x l e g i s l a t i o n p e r m i t . Then these measures are supplemented by a sustained e f f o r t t o absorb a d d i t i o n a l amounts o f p r i v a t e funds through the s a l e of government s e c u r i t i e s on a v o l u n t a r y b a s i s ( i n order f u r t h e r t o reduce the need f o r the Treasury t o r e l y on bank c r e d i t ) . Compulsory savings are proposed as p a r t o f t h e business o f p r o v i d i n g t h e Treasury w i t h assured funds by compulsory means. By d e f i n i t i o n , t h e y should t a k e precedence over v o l u n t a r y l e n d i n g t o t h e government. This leads t o the most i m p o r t a n t p o i n t , t h e f a c t t h a t compulsory savings p r o v i d e t h e Treasury w i t h an o p p o r t u n i t y t o c o r r e c t a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y t h e t r e n d toward the accumulation i n p r i v a t e hands o f an excessive volume o f v i r t u a l demand o b l i g a t i o n s i n t h e f o r m o f savings bonds (now about $26 b i l l i o n ) . - 11 - Compulsory savings can a i d should be r e s t r i c t e d as t o redemption so as t o a f f o r d the Treasury some measure o f d i s c r e t i o n i n t i m i n g r e p a y ments. So l o n g as we are committed t o the p r e s e t form o f savings bonds f o r v o l u n t a r y purchasers, t h e r e would be a p o s i t i v e advantage i n s h i f t i n g subs t a n t i a l amounts o f p r i v a t e savings i n t o some form o f compulsory savings — thus r e s t r i c t e d as t o redemption. This p o i n t i s o f tremendous importance i n connection w i t h postwar p r o b l e u a . P r e v a i l i n g c o n d i t i o n s r e q u i r e t h a t a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e amount o f purchasing power be drawn away from the lower income b r a c k e t s . I n the face o f t h i s n e c e s s i t y , the requirements o f e q u i t y w i l l be b e t t e r served i f the burden on these groups i s coupled w i t h arrangements f o r repayments a f t e r t h e peak o f wartime p a y r o l l s has been passed. A c o r o l s r y p o i n t i s t h a t compulsory savings c o u l d be arranged so t h a t they could be made a v a i l a b l e a t times when i n d i v i d u a l s and the econosy o f the c o u n t r y would be most b e n e f i t t e d . The a t t i t u d e of some people toward even the mention o f compulsory savings suggests a f e e l i n g t h a t t h e r e i s something p o s i t i v e l y s i n i s t e r about t h e i d e a . Doubtless, t h i s stems f r o m on i n s t i n c t i v e r e a c t i o n a g a i n s t any a s s o c i a t i o n between compulsion and t h e a c t o f saving — which some s t i l l r e g a r d as an e n t i r e l y v o l u n t a r y procedure. But the government 1 s systems o f unemployment and o l d a^e insurance are forms o f compulsory savings — and meet w i t h general a p p r o v a l . Or p u t i t t h i s way: compulsory s a v i n g s , l i k e t a x e s , do i n t e r f e r e w i t h the i n d i v i d u a l ' s program o f v o l u n t a r y savings — b u t t h e y do have t h e advantage from the t a x p a y e r ' s p o i n t o f view t h a t he gets them back — t h e y are s a v i n g s . October 28, 1943. SALES TAX VERSUS INCOME TAX I t i s agreed t h a t a s u b s t a n t i a l amount o f the a d d i t i o n a l t a x revenue must bo drawn from the lower income groups i f taxes are t o be an o f i o c t i v e check t o i n f l a t i o n . L'ore s p e c i f i c a l l y , a good p a r t o f the a d d i t i o n a l revenue should bo drawn from taxpayers w i t h incomes o f $2,000 o r l e s s . But t h i s s t i l l leaves open the choice between t a x i n g t h e low income groups through a s a l e s t a x o r through an income t a x . P o l i t i c a l Aspects The sales t a x i s much more l i k e l y t o r e s u l t i n demands for higher wages and p o s s i b l y farm p r i c e s . Should t h i s bo t h e ease, a s a l e s t a x may w e l l r e s u l t i n a n e t l o s s r a t h a r than gain i n the f i g h t f o r i n f l a t i o n c o n t r o l . E q u i t y Aspect* E q u i t y consideraticms remain i m p o r t a n t i n t a x l e g i s l a t i o n , even i n times o f w a r . They become p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i f , as i s t h o case now, taxes must be c o l l e c t e d from the v e r y low income groups. There i s as much o r more d i f f e r e n c e between t h e t a x p a y i n g a b i l i t y o f a f a n i l y w i t h a $2,000 income ami a f a m i l y w i t h a $1,000 income than between a family- w i t h a #10,000 income and a f a m i l y w i t h a $5,000 income. I n the low income groups, p e r s o n a l exemptions are t h e most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n o b t a i n i n g a f a i r d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the t a x burden ( p r o g r e s s i o n i s more i m p o r t a n t f o r the h i g h e r income groups). On e q u i t y grounds, tho income t a x , however low t h e exemption, i s thus g r e a t l y s u p e r i o r t o t h e s s l e s t a x . Tho s m a l l e r a man's income, tho h e a v i e r i s the burden o f t h e s a l e s t a x . A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Aspects I f t h e income t a x approach i s taken, i t w i l l bo necessary t o lower exemptions f o r f a m i l i e s to $1,000, or perhaps oven $300. This would add from 5 to 10 m i l l i o n taxpayers t o the 40 m i l l i o n already covered, and would undoubtedly create an administrative burden. However, t h i s burden should not bo exaggerated: 1 . As the Treasury oophasises, the r e t a i l sales tax by i t s e l f creates a most serious administrative burden. I t i s altogether u n l i k e l y t h a t a sales t a x could bo passed which i s s u f f i c i e n t l y high t o permit a substantial i n crease i n income tax exemptions and thereby o f f s e t the administrative burden. 2 . Tho experience with tho Victory Tax and w i t h c o l l e c t i o n a t tho source has g r e a t l y improvod our a b i l i t y to doal w i t h tho d i r e c t t a x a t i o n of low incomes. I f tho income tax applicable t o lower income groups wore s i m p l i f i e d r a d i c a l l y , tho administrative task would bo qui to msnagoable. Surely, I t would be l e s s then t h a t o f adding a general s a l e s t a x t o the present income tax. 3. To s i m p l i f y the income t a x , taxpayers w i t h incomes up t o perhaps | 2 , 5 0 0 or $3,000 should be r e l i e v e d from having t o f i l e r e t u r n s . The t a x should be c o l l e c t e d on gross income a f t e r exemptions and t h e w i t h h o l d i n g t a b l e s used by the employer should s e t the f i n a l t a x . 4 . Rather than a general s a l e s t a x , we should have sharp increases i n many e x i s t i n g excises as w e l l as new excise taxes on broadly consumed b u t n o t r e a l l y e s s e n t i a l comcKxiities. THE IHFLATIOKART OAF The gross i n f l a t i o n a r y gap i s the amount b j which t h e income which people have l e f t a f t e r taxes exceeds a v a i l a b l e goods and s e r v i c e s a t present p r i c e s . I f t h i s excess i s 8 .red, no n e t ^ap i o l e f t , a i d p r i c e s do n o t r i s e . Item 5 i n Table A shows f o r t h e c u r r e n t f i s c a l year the excess o f income t h a t s u e t be saved t o aevroid a p r i c e r i s e , t h a t i s , - 4 0 b i l l i o n . Table B shows t h e forms which these savings n i g h t t a k e . I f a p a r t o f t h e excess i s n o t saved but s p e n t , p r i c e s w i l l t o balance a v a i l a b l e goods w i t h money demand. rise Note t h a t the whole »gsp approach" r e f e r s o n l y t o t h e use o f c u r r e n t income and leaves o u t p o s s i b l e spending from accumulated funds. etober SB, 1943 g t r l c t l y Confidential A. ->f 1042 1. Iaco»*» Payments t o I n a i r i .a?..is - ?*r»o»al F i s c a l roar 104? 1444 129.9 1SO.0 £0.0 07.1 80.7 120.0 150.0 *0.J 16.4 16,9 54.1 28.4 40.0 50.8 16,4 W4 Securities Savings end Loim Associations T'rlrmte Insurance L i q u i d a t i o n o f debt Total t.O 11.0 .4 5.0 M 16.4 h f l f f e f t f t i n currency back ^ - o s i t s held bv i R r f i v i w l s ^djuetaent lt*% 4.7 5. 4. Pin osable Iac^ne - ? i | i M t i to o r l n U S. Arsons 1 Sariags er 5.7 iartistry o f d l s o s t b l e Incase B. of Savings * * ( B i l l i o n Dollars) 6. Personal savings A. 7. 8. 10. 11. B. IS. c. A l l i e d Savings 9.6 14.7 * 16.4 ^ 54.1 (18.0) ( .5) ( 5.1) ( S^) (t*f«) (15.0) .LML Table A. * Figures f o r 1942 and 1945 by U. S. Treasury D i v i s i o n o f Research end S t a t i s t i c s . Figures f o r 1944 are estimated. Item One equals n a t i o n a l income :>lus t r a n s f e r payments minus c o r porate savings end employment t a x e s . ( N a t i o n a l income equals gross n a t i o n a l product minus d e p r e c i a t i o n reserves and business taxes). Item Ttsro equals income t a x , V i c t o r y Tax, e s t a t e t a x , g i f t t a x , end c e r t a i n excise t a x e s . Item Four i n c l u d e s o u t l a y s on r e s i d e n t i a l construction. Table B. * • Based on S.E.C. estimates f o r l i q u i d s a v i n g s . estimates f o r 1944 are n e c e s s a r i l y rough. The Item Seven i n c l u d e s purchases o f U n i t e d States Government, State and l o c a l governments, as w e l l as p r i v a t e s e c u r i t i e s . Item Eleven based on S.E.C. estimates end i n f o r m a t i o n obtained from Federal Reserve Deposit Survey. Item Twelve. I f the s t a t i s t i c s used i n Table A and B were e n t i r e l y coaoarable, the t o t a l o f a p p l i e d savings and increase i n currency and d e p o s i t h o l d i n g s should equal t o t a l personal s a v i n g s . The f i g u r e s do not check c o m p l e t e l y , p a r t l y because o f conceptual d i f ferences and o a r t l y because o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n s t a t i s t i c a l sources. October 28, 1943. POSTWAR LIQUIDITY Ownership o f U. S. Government S e c u r i t i e s I. y ( I n b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) June 30, 1941 Total Interest-bearing Securities U. S. Government Agencies Federal Reserve Banks Commercial Banks Mutual Savings Banks Insurance Companies Other I n v e s t o r s Marketable S e c u r i t i e s Nonciirkstable S e c u r i t i e s June 30, 1?4? 54.3 "XT 2.2 20.1 3.4 7.0 139.5 U.2 7.2 52.1 5.3 12.3 » 206.1 OCT 14.0 65.3 6.8 17.3 270.6 19.5 74.3 3.3 21.8 • 19.4 23.4 9.4 4.2 T o t a l Money Supply II. Estimates June 30, June 30, 1944 1945 34.2 49.7 49.7 72.0 y (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) June 30, 1941 A l l Banks Deposits Demand 2 / Tins Total Currency Outside Banks T o t a l Money Supply June 30, 1943 June 30, 1944 June 30, 1945 37,317 27,379 65,196 55,952 30,323 36,230 ( 68,000) ( 34,300) (102,300 ( 76,000) ( 37,300) (113,300) 3,204 15,800 ( 19,800) ( 3? t 800? 73,400 102,030 (122,100) (137,100) } 1/ Purchases o f U. 3. s e c u r i t i e s by t h e o o m e r c i a l banks and t h e Federal Reserve System a r e e s t i m a t e d a t $20 b i l l i o n f o r t h e f i s c a l year 1944 and $15 b i l l i o n f o r 1945. 2/ Excludes f l o a t , U. S. Government d e p o s i t s , and i n t e r b a n k d e p o s i t s - 11 - III. L i q u i d Holdings o f I n d i v i d u a l s and Businesses i/ (In billions of dollars) Dec. 1930 Businesses (except insurance) - t o t a l Demand d e p o s i t s and currencyTime d e p o s i t s U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s u 1 Individuals - t o t a l Demand d e p o s i t s and currency Time d e p o s i t s U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s 15 26 1/ 15 1 44 8 June 30, 1943 June 30, 1944 June 30, 1945 |53 3 (73) (103) (117) (147) l 20 36 86 51 28 30 A l l f i g u r e s are e s t i m a t e d . Businesses i n c l u d e b o t h i n c o r p o r a t e d and u n i n c o r p o r a t e d concerns. Estimates f o r 1944 and 1945 assume $55 b i l l i o n borrowed each f i s c a l year from i n d i v i d u a l s , non-insurance businesses and banks. The r e s u l t i n g gross i n l i q u i d assets i s a l l o c a t e d t o businesses and t o i n d i v i d u a l s , r o u g h l y , o n t h e b a s i s o f t h e p a s t y e a r ' s experience. October 23, 1943 Tho I n v e n t o r y S i t u a t i o n I n v e n t o r i e s , except perhaps i n t h e manufacture of -war p r o d u c t s , d e c l i n e d somewhat i n the l a s t h a l f of 1942 and t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 1943, b u t i n r e c e n t months seem t o have increased a l i t t l e . I n v e n t o r i e s are s t i l l l a r g e compared w i t h prewar l e v e l s , b u t n o t l a r g o r e l a t i v e t o t h e volume o f sales. Data on I n v e n t o r y (Billion dollars) Doc. 1939 Manufacturers 1 T o t a l June 1942 Doc. 1942 June 1943 Aug. 1943 10.7 17.2 17.7 17.2 17.6 5.1 5.6 4.5 1.9 4.3 9.0 8.2 7.9 4.3 5.0 9.7 3.0 8.3 4.8 4.6 9.3 7.4 B.l 4.8 4.3 9.9 7.7 3.2 4.9 4.4 Wholesale 3.5 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.9 Retail Total Department Stores Apparel Other 5.1 0.7 0.7 3.7 7.5 1.4 1.1 5.0 6.4 1.0 0.9 4.5 5.7 1.0 0.8 3.9 6.1 0.9 0.9 4.3 1. 2. 1/ Durable Nondurable Raw Materials I n process Finished Department of Commerce, Bureau o f Foreign and Domestic Commerce.