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r
CONFIDENTIAL
R&3 100-2707
June 2 2 , I9I48
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
Division of Research and Statistics
FINANCING OJTLOOK
Prospects for the Treasury cash position shown on the accompanying; tables indicate that during the next few months the Treasury might be
abl'3 to retire as much as 1,5 billion dollars of securities held by the
Federal Reserve without reducing Treasury deposits (excluding gold) below
2 billion dollars at any time during the remainder of this calendar year*
Total Treasury deposits will amount to about J>»h billion at the
end of June. In July the Treasury may receive as much as three-quarters
of a billion dollars from additional sales of Series F and G bonds but
this total vdll be exceeded by a cash deficit and by retirement of certificates on July 1, and the Treasury balance vdll be drawn down scmev/hat. A
small cash surplus is likely in August and a substantial one in September.
The effect of Treasury operations on bank reserves can be kept
neutral during July and August by proper timing of calls on war loan deposits* If there should be no retirement of Federal Reserve held debt,
then calls should be sufficient to maintain the Treasury deposits at
Reserve Banks at a constant level of about 1.7 billion dollars. Figures
shown in Table I attached are computed on this basis. Fressure could be
put on the money market by an additional amount of calls. Drawing down
the Treasury balance to retire Federal Reserve held debt would in itself
have no effect on the volume of bank reserves except to the extent that
the balance is replenished by calls on war loan accounts.
Debt retirement program
Treasury cash available for debt retirement could be used in a
number of ways: (a) to retire part of the System's holdings of 2,2 billion dollars of certificates maturing July 1; (b) to retire a portion of
weekly bill issues; or (c) to retire the System*s holdings of notes
maturing September 15 (amounting to about 'JOO million dollars)«
Retirement of bills provides a somewhat more flexible procedure
in that it can be readily adjusted to unforeseen changes in the Treasury
cash balance or revision in the outlook for Treasury receipts and expenditures. Treasury bills maturing on July 1 and July 8 amount to 1.2 billion
dollars. These could be replaced by issues of a billion dollars each.
Further retirements of approximately 100 millions a week could be made to
the extent that funds are available.
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED TREASURY DEPOSITS AliD RELATED ITEMS
(In millions of dollars)
Treasurv deposits with Federal Reserve
i Amount
1 • 1 ...., Change
Period
(end of 1
i Redemptions
Income
Calls
of market1 period) j
taxes
able issues :
Statement week ended:
-138
+ 6L
19U8: June 2*
1,567
+ 381 |
l , l l + [ | i + 1U6
+ 200
- 7
9*
981+ | + 8 1 0
16*
+ 523
-316
+1,156
- 70
-_
23
1,517
- 8
1,666
-30
+ 657
-246O
+ 270
July 7
+ 800
1,675
+ 220
- £.0
+ 1+00
1+
1
1,655
+ 210
21
1,61+0
+ 300
+ 170
28
1,660
—
+ 350
+ 225
Aug. 1
+
+ 100
1,61+5
+ 2ii5
11
1,590
+ 295
+ 150
18
1,635
+ 150
+ 250
25
1,635
+ 100
Sept. 1
1,610
+ 250
-—
8
+ 2U5
1,255
-—
-150
+ 550
1,205
15
...
22
- 50
+1,275
1,555
—
1,860
29
+ 755
Month:
-+ 822
191+8: May*
1,&1+
+1,258
+2,570
1,666
June
+1,320
-539
July
-500
+1,900
+ 975
1,675
—+ 870
August
1,61+5
+ 700
—
-200
+2,970
September
1,915
October
+ 990
-500
+1,800
1,905
_+ 880
November
l,9i+5
+1,000
-100
December
+ 700
+2,315
1,9^5
i
•
—
-
—
-
Banks
V"
.
.1Airount
Other
(end of
period)
- 528 1,758
- 762 1,799
- 1 , 1 7 7 1,386
- 553 1,561
- 500 1,731+
- 600 1,595
- 600 1,565
- 525 1,1+50
- 500 1,210
- 31+0 1,280
- 300 l,lf95
- 1*00 1,620
- 1+00 1,560
- 375 1,505
- 600 1,695
- h50 2,025
- 875 2,235
- U50 2,365
-1,632
2,020
-3,369
1,731+
-2,365
-1,600
-2,500
-2,300
-1,81+0
-2,91+5
1,225
1,1+55
2,385
1,195
1,155
1,385
R&S 100-2707
June 2 2 , I9I48
ar loan d e p o s i t s
Change
Hew
Income
taxes
securities
+ 69
+101
+325
+85
+ 22
+ 60
+ 75
+ Uo
+ 25
+ 60
+12+0
+200
+105
+ 75
+100
+255
+130
+ ho
+713
+580
+210
+550
+550
+230
+580
+550
+120
+ 89
+ 73
Total
. Treasury
deposits l /
(end of "
Calls
period)
•
- 381
- 11+6
- 810
3,325
+90
—.
3,078
+151
+600
- 800
+295
+11+5
+ 85
+110
+ 75
+ 75
+ 85
+120
+ 90
+ 75
+ 80
+ 90
+I±o6
+i±60
+1,180
+380
+380
+380
+380
+380
- hoo
-
300
350
100
- 150
- 250
- 250
—
—
—
-1,258
-1,320
-1,900
- 700
--1,800
-1,000
- 700
2,9U3
2,370
3,1*00
3,270
3,220
3,090
2,870
2,925
3,085
3,255
3,195
3,H5
2,950
3,230
3,790
!+,225
3,701+
3,l+oo
2,900
3,ioo
l+,3oo
3,ioo
3,ioo
3,3oo
* Actual«
l / T o t a l Treasury d e p o s i t s a t Federal Reserve Banks and war loan d e p o s i t s ; t o t a l does n o t i n c l u d e f r e e gold, which
amounts-to a l i t t l e more t h a n 1 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s , and o t h e r sirall items i n t h e General Fund b a l a n c e .
GOVERNMENT FINANCE SECflON, BOARD OF GOVERNORS
lacie
Item
Net receipts
Expenditures 1/
Eud. surplus or deficit (•
Change in debt:
Nonmarketable
Marketable
Adjustment 2 /
Cash balance: change
Outstanding 3 /
Retirement of rnktb. debt:
Federal Reserve
Other
Change in nonmktb. debt:
Special issues
Savings bonds
Savings notes
Int*1 Monetary Fund
International Sank
Armed forces leave bonds
Investment bonds
Other
Total
Note:
*
1/
2/
3/
II
EJDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES, BORROWING AND BALANCES
D a i l y T r e a s u r y Statement Basis
(Estimated. In billions of dollars)
STRIC T LY CONFIDENT Ik L
R&S 100-2707
June 2 2 , I9U8
Fiscal years
July-tJan»~ ,
Dec a liter* •
19,2; 15,0: 2.8
^ 2,8
18.0:
+ 1.27+6,2; —
June S (July{Aug. jSeut.l Oct. 'Kov.JDe
Lj
1
I
~
;
!.3j 2.U
2.9 [ 2.5
"HT.5 - a!+1.3 ! - . 6 ; - . 1 !+ 3 2
7
2.h 5.0 i| 3-7! 2.5 3
.3
i
+ I . 5 U . 5 ; - .2
- 2.9;- kJi[- .5
+
.h\,2;+
2.9;
.5
.2; + .2
5.0^.5
j
.91+ .1
. 3 ! - ,2
- M\
.2;-
a
- 1.0I - a
+ i.oj
- .2
—
a I- a „_
I
j-
.2+1.2 i-1.2i —
.0T7i.2! 5.2; :
1.0*- 3.8J .3
I.91- .61 .2
-
;- .5! —
]- . 5
+ 1.6*
+ .8j
- .11
June
1
.5
.1
.1
;- . 5 — j - . 2 I - .51 -
;
i 15.2
: 10,3
i+2.9
+ a
+ .If —
|- . 1 -
+ .1
! — — i- a 1- a i - a I- . 2
I- a
- a i ~ 1 - I- a
1
a
- 2.6 ! + 7.1+ j - 3 "
+
.7 -
5.6
7-7
It
1+ . 9 + . 1 —
37.0 I
.9 ' + 2.3 • + I+.O
.1+ j - 8.3 ! - 2.1+
+ Jl I
. 2 + 3-3 - 2 . 1 1 + 1.8 r
1.1
!- .1 -
.9 iI j •+ . 6 1 + . 2 + . 3 j - - |+ . 2 }+ . 3
ol
+ 1.1
12.0 !
.7 -
L+
_i
1+ 1 . 0 j
.8 + . 2 i
.5
.2
- 3.2
+ 2.8
+ 3.1
+ 2,0 ; + 2.2
-1.2
- .8
!" ' } \ - .5
- .2
!- .1 !
• .k I - . 1
- 1.1 j - . 2
+ 1.0 I —
-
•51-
+ .5
- 2.1;
.3 ! —
+1.5 + . 3 ; + . 1 j - ,11+ . K + a + 1.1 !+ . 9 { + 2 . 3 I
Assumptions underlying estiimtes for I9I4.7, 19^8 and I9U9 respectively as follows, in billions of dollars:
Personal income, 197, 217, 22i|; Personal income tax collections, after tax cut beginning with 19148, 20.5. 18*5*
18.5; Corporate Federal income tax l i a b i l i t y , IO.I4. and 10.2; Budget expenditures reduced from January official
estimates by 1.6 b i l l i o n in fiscal 19^8 and increased by 1.5 billion in fiscal 191+9.
Actual.
Including net expenditures in trust accounts and clearing account.
Adjustment for difference between General Fund balance and cash balance due principally to timing of receipts
and expenditures.
Including free gold of about 1 billion dollars.
GOVERNMENT FIHAlTCE SECTION". BOARD X5F G0VEFW*?S
laoie III
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
(Estimated.
In billions of dollars)
:L91+8
W7
15.7 3.0
9.3 3.0
+ 1.3 + 6.2*
3.3
2.3 3.1 U.8
3.1 2.9 3.U
• .5 + .6
2.5
3.1
+ .2 . 1 . 2 ,
1 p
2.8
- .6
i!
r
- .8
ic &9
Jan.- Apr.Mar • June
3.1 U.3
3.0 3.9
.a
F i s c a l years
1*7-U8
10.U
12.0
13.9
10.5
• .h + 3.U - 1 . 6
191*8-2+9
38 .'5
4-8.8
* 2.5
+ .9
- 8.3
+ 1.0
i
•
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
ro
P~
1
1
1
1
1 1 1 1 | 1
1 1 1 1 11
.1
+ 1.8
I. c
.1
rH
1
1
- "Z, 1
2
7.7^ 5.6
+
+ .1
A
- 2.U
•
L
- ,1 - .1 • • J + .6 • .6
- .2 - .2
- .1
+ .1
.1
1
1
1
1
t2
+ 5.5
1.2 k.L
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1
1
+ .8
+
rH
*
1
1
5.U
-1*2
k.2
1
1
1
1
- .U
li.O
+ •? +1.2
1
1
1 I 1 I 1 1
t
1
1
1
1
1
•
-.2
1
+ ,2
- .1
+ .1
—»•
I; .8
1
• .5 +
- . 1 - .3
+ 1.0
+ .2 + .1
- A - .2
2
.6 .7 -
"••
+ . 3 - .5
CM
• • • • • I I I
.3
.7
- .1 - .1 - .1 +
- .1 - «5
rH
• 1 1 1 1 t 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
+ 1.U +
- .2
1
Change in nonmktb. s e c ' s - t o t a l
Savings bonds
Savings notes
Investment bonds
Postal Sav. S y s . , s p . i s s u e s
Mkt. t r a n s . , T r , accounts 3 /
Mkt. t r a n s . , Gov. corp. 3 / ~
Matured & mis e e l . debt
Guaranteed debt
- .5
——
•
1
1
+ . 2 + 2 . 1 - .5
5.0] • j 2.9
R
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Treas. cash b a l . : change
outstdg.
+
1 +
1 •
+ i.k + , 3 - . 2 - . 2
- 2.9
- .5
- .2 + .2
—" ,
"
+ A
t-
1
1
Net cash borrowing or
repayment ( - )
! T onmarketable 1/
Marketable 2 /
Adjustment
20,5
19.2
1
1
Cash income
Cash outgo
Excess of cash income
or outgo ( - )
1
July- J a n . Apr • * May* June | i Julv Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Dec,
1
1
Item
R&S 100-2707
June 2 2 , I9I48
TREASURY CASH INCOME AND OJTGO, DEBT TRANSACTIONS AND BA1ANCES
+ 1.1
5.6
+ 1.0
+ 1.2
- 1.2
+ 1.0
• .3
-
- 18
•
.1
.6
• .2
- .1
+ .1
+ .3
+ .1
*
Actua 1
l/ Including changes in guaranteed debt, matured and miscellaneous debt and changes in holdings of special issues by
the Postal Savings System and of marketable securities by Trust accounts and by wholly and partially owned Government
corporations v;hose investments are handled through the Treasury.
2/ Change in amounts outstanding whether or not in the hands of the public or in Treasury investment accounts.
3/ Change in amounts in hands of public as result of Treasury transactions; ( ) indicates Treasury purchases and (+)
indicates Treasury sales,
GOVERNMENT FINANCE SECTION, BOARD OF GOVERNORS
Table IV
OWNERSHIP AT^D RETIRSffittT OF PUBLIC DEBT BY TYPE OF ISSUE AW TYPE OF INVESTOR
PUBLIC T^ARKETABLE SECURITIES OTHER THAN TREASURY BILLS
(Partly estimated. In millions of dollars)
STRICTLY
CONFIDENTIAL
Held by
Issue
1948
Jan. 1,
Feb. 1,
Mar. 1,
Mar.15,
Mar .15, 2
Apr. 1,
June 1,
June 15,1
l/^. CI (A)| 1,369!
751
l/%% CI (3)j 1,1531 1,614
ci (c); 914
2% TD
627
3/4^ TB
859
l/%% CI (D) 520
' % CI (E) 414
3/4^ TO
1,877
Totals:
1,088
507
648
732
CI (A) 1,317
1,250
TN
934
CI (B)
CI (C) 2,084
451=1
CI (D)
CI (E) 2,141
608
TB
191
175
220
692
87
544
100
Jtxn .
J*>.n •
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.
June
1 , 1
1, 1
1, 1
1, 1 1/8
1, 1 l / 8
1 , 1 l/8
TK
Total :
Oaf
J a n , - June
* Estimated.
)
281
75
101
106
27G
119
8461
7/8?? CI (F)
316
7/8^ CI (G)
750
7/8$ CI (H)
l/2>^ TN
j1,931
376
Tri
526
1$
CI
544
CI 00
1,490
TN
438
TB
7,733
J a n . - June
7,217
Julv - Dec»
July 1,
July 1,
Julyl,
Sept.15,1
Sept.15,2
Oct. 1,
Oct. 1,
Oct. 1,
Dec. 15,
Redeemed for cash
Total
outjCommercialjFederal jlTonbank
banks j Reserve , investor* standin
Banks
160
260
1,028
3,326"
4,423
I 1,014
1,180
943
413
263
695
1,088
1,066
808
304
811
1,085
75
668
663
1,574
133
6,662"
6,121
i 1,084
I 2,110
1,035
777
517
1,615
306
3,134
3,947
2,142
1,115
1,223
1,321
1,777
3,062
R&S 100-2707
June 22, 1948
'TotaTT^
omnier
Exchanged for r . w sec 's
?e
i Federal !Npnbanls
. cial j Reserve- inves- Total
S Banks*t Banks
tors*
542
1,757J
454 j
218
2G2
2C7
160
379
82
71
63
86
123
69
44
242
400
1,614
285
75
101
106
800
2,581
60
72
80
.'5 7
Description
2,592 Jan.49 1 l/8Cl(A)
2,190
Feb.49 1 1/8CICB)
3,546
Liar .49 1 l/Sd(c)
38
92
116
137
4,300
658
13,682
1,054
Apr .49 1 l/8d(D)
June 49 1 l/8 CI (E)
2,742
1,127
2,209
3,748
451
1,354
1,467
4,092
. . 571
17,721
4,039
17,761
2,592
3,535
2,189
3,553
1,055
4,300
1,014
18,238
I
.L
Note: Amounts outstanding are f o r May 3 1 , 1948 and F.R. Bank holdings a r e for June 16, 1.9'i8.
Commercial
banfe: data are • from Treas. Survey of Ownership of U>S. Gov. s e c u r i t i e s for Mar. 3 1 , 1948 adjusted for changes in hold
p
ings* v v the F.R. Banks between Mar, 31 and June lfi r 194P
o r i s s u e s maturing p r i o r t o Liar, 31 amounts are for the
nonth preceding
maturity,.
- GOVEIuiFElTT 'FIlT,iFCE SECTTOF
30APD f
