Full text of Supplement to Economic Indicators : 1957
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[JOINT COMMITTEE PRINT]
85th Congress, 1st Session
1957
HISTORICAL AND DESCRIPTIVE
SUPPLEMENT TO
Economic Indicators
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee
by the Committee Staff and the
Office of Statistical Standards, Bureau of the Budget
Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1957
JOINT ECONONIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
W R I G H T PATMAN, Texas, Chairman
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama, Vice Chairman
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
WILBUR D. MILLS (Arkansas)
AUGUSTINE B. KELLEY (Pennsylvania)
HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa)
THOMAS B. CURTIS (Missouri)
CLARENCE E. KILBURN (New York)
PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois)
J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY (Wyoming)
RALPH E. FLANDERS (Vermont)
ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah)
BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona)
JOHN W . LEHMAN, Acting Executive Director
Letters of Transmittal
SEPTEMBER 10, 1 9 5 7 .
To Members of the Joint Economic Committee:
For the information of the members of the Joint Economic Committee ancl others interested there is
transmitted herewith a second revision of the supplement to the committee's monthly publication Economic
Indicators, containing both historical tables of the various indicators now published and a description of the
derivation, limitations, and uses of each indicator. These materials were developed by the committee staff
and the Office of Statistical Standards, Bureau of the Budget, with the cooperation of the agencies responsible
for each series.
As you are undoubtedly aware, there has been widespread interest in having this information readily
available. The Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicators is used not only by Members
of Congress and other users of Economic Indicators, both within the Government and among the nearly 6,500
private subscribers, but has become an important teaching aid in college courses in statistics. It is believed
that this new revision of the original publication will be equally well received.
W R I G H T PATMAN,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee.
SEPTEMBER 10, 1 9 5 7 .
The Honorable W R I G H T PATMAN,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee,
House of Representatives, Washington, D. C.
D E A R M R . PATMAN: Transmitted herewith is the 1957 supplement to the Committee's monthly publication Economic Indicators, containing for each indicator (1) historical data and (2) a description and references
to additional technical explanations. This supplement brings up to date both the descriptive materials and
the historical tables which were published first in December 1953 and revised in November 1955. It is
intended to answer most of the many requests for general information which cannot be carried each month
in the Committee's publication but which is often essential to the interpretation and use of the current
materials.
The description shown for each series in Economic Indicators attempts in a nontechnical way to explain
how the series is derived, what its limitations are, and the uses for which it is appropriate or, in some cases,
warning of uses for which it is especially not appropriate. Both the historical data and the descriptions
which are included in this supplement are designed for general users of the data rather than for technicians.
The Government Printing Office sold nearly 8,000 copies of the 1955 supplement.
It might be helpful to point out for the benefit of persons not familiar with Economic Indicators that
this is a monthly publication printed by the Congress in accordance with Public Law 120, 81st Congress,
chapter 237, 1st session. Economic Indicators was first published by the Joint Economic Committee as a
committee print in 1948 to provide its members with information on current economic trends and developments in a concise and graphic form. Knowing that other Members of the Congress, businessmen, farm
leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press also sought such information, the Joint Committee at the same time sponsored legislation which later resulted in authorizing publication on a permanent
basis. Economic Indicators is prepared each month for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of
Economic Advisers.
The monthly Indicators is used widely by schools and libraries as a reference source and has an extensive
circulation of foreign subscribers, covering all major nations of the world. The publication currently has a
list of nearly 6,500 paid subscribers. Economic Indicators is sold through the Superintendent of Documents,
lii
United States Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C., price 20 cents per copy; $2 per year; $2.50
foreign.
The Joint Committee has always welcomed comments directed toward making Economic Indicators
or this Supplement more useful publications. It should be understood, of course, that the materials included
must be limited to those series most widely used by Members of Congress, executive Government agencies,
and others. The Committee policy has been to carry standard series and relationships without interpretation. Other publications of the Committee and the executive agencies are considered the medium for
interpretations of the data.
The development and supervisory work on thefirstissue of the supplement was done by the Committee
staff. Descriptions of the series were written by members of the staff of the Office of Statistical Standards,
Bureau of the Budget, and the tables were prepared by Miss Frances James and the agencies compiling the
original data. Both text and tables of the 1955 and 1957 supplements were prepared by the Office of Statistical Standards, with the cooperation of the agencies compiling the data, in response to requests directed to
the Bureau of the Budget by the Subcommittee on Economic Statistics.
Respectfully submitted.
JOHN W .
LEHMAN,
Acting Executive Director.
lii
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Page
The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving
Gross National Product or Expenditure
National Income
Sources of Personal Income
Per Capita Disposable Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
1
4
6
8
8
10
11
14
16
18
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Honrs—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
20
25
28
30
32
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Manufactures
Weekly Indicators of Production
New Construction
Housing Starts and Applications for Financing
Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Merchandise Exports and Imports
—
33
36
37
41
44
46
49
PRICES
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
51
54
56
CURRENCY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Currency and Deposits
Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves
Consumer Credit
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Stock Prices
60
62
64
66
68
FEDERAL FINANCE
Budget Receipts and Expenditures
Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public
70
72
V
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING
Description oj series—The Nation's income, expenditure, and saving, representing a summary of
the Nation's economic accounts, are shown in the
accompanying table in terms of total receipts and
total expenditures for consumers, business, international, and government. The accounts shown
here represent a statement of the gross national
product in terms of receipts and expenditures for
these four categories: for every dollar of expenditure
there must be a dollar of receipts. Thus the combined receipts (consumer disposable income, gross
retained earnings of business, and government
receipts) must equal the combined expenditures
(consumption expenditures, gross private domestic
investment, net foreign investment, and government
expenditures). It follows that for any period in
which the receipts for any of the four categories
exceed expenditures, the difference will be offset by
an excess of expenditures over receipts in another
category or categories. The relationship of receipts
to expenditures for each of the four categories is
shown in the first chart in Economic Indicators for
the last full year and for three recent quarters.
The exact balancing of the combined receipts and
expenditures reported for the four categories—
consumers, business, international, government—
requires recognition of a statistical discrepancy, since
the estimating procedure involves somewhat independent data on each side of the accounts and does
not produce the identity which is conceptually
present. In the accompanying table, the total of
consumer, business, and government receipts plus
the statistical discrepancy equals the total of consumer, business, and government expenditures and
net foreign investment, which equals the gross
national product as published.
The consumer account summarizes the more detailed statistics on personal income and consumption
shown elsewhere in Economic Indicators, particularly
in the table on Disposition of Personal Income
(see below, p. 11). It should be noted that, although
the consumer income account includes the income
of unincorporated businesses arid farms, the consumer expenditure account includes only expendi-
tures for consumption purposes. Investments of
noncorporate as well as corporate businesses are
included in the business expenditure account. The
actual or imputed rent of dwellings is included in
consumer expenditure; but residential construction,
whether for owner occupancy or for rental purposes,
is included with business investment.
In the business account, receipts or gross retained
earnings include the undistributed profits of corporations after adjustment for inventory valuation,
plus the capital consumption allowances of both
corporate and noncorporate enterprises and institutions, including residences. The capital consumption
allowances must be added to receipts since investment is on a gross basis—i. e., before deduction for
depreciation, capital outlays charged to current
expense, and accidental damage to fixed capital.
Business investment includes additions to plant
and equipment and inventories of both corporate
and noncorporate enterprises, as well as residential
construction. Because of conceptual difficulties and
limitations in the data which prevent differentiating
investment items in the present consumer and government accounts, as shown here business and foreign
investment constitutes the only current savings of
the Nation identified in real terms.
The international account is represented here only
by a net expenditure item—i. e., net foreign investment or disinvestment. The series on net foreign
investment represents the difference between exports
of goods and services, on the one hand, and imports
of goods and services and unilateral transfers (private
and government gifts and other transfer payments)
on the other. It is taken from the official balance
of payments of the United States.
The government account shows receipts and
expenditures on an income and product account
basis, rather than on either a cash or a conventional
budget basis, to be consistent with the receipts and
expenditures of consumers and business and with
the gross national product total. The government
receipts include personal, corporate and indirect
business taxes, and contributions for social insurance.
Although government transfer payments, such as
1
interest charges and social security and veterans' future period, using these accounts, is especially
benefits, represent income to the recipients, they are helpful when government programs are of such
not included in the gross national product, and are magnitude and importance that they dominate
therefore subtracted here from both receipts and changes in the economy; in other words, when
expenditures. Current issues of Economic Indicators government spending and tax plans are the main
show total receipts and expenditures and the amount forces making for changes in the economy. At
deducted for transfer payments, as well as the net other times, its main benefit is in identifying and
figures shown in the accompanying historical table. measuring inflationary and deflationary programs
The government income and product accounts of government and private economic groups and in
are on a consolidated basis, just as the cash accounts pointing out areas in which adjustments are necesare, but they depart from the latter because of the sary to achieve economic stability and growth.
(4) Another use, related to the preceding, is that
timing of the items included in each and because of
conceptual differences. The income and product of enabling those who must make actual forecasts,
accounts of the government are designed to be in such as businessfirms,private economists and others,
accord with the accrual records maintained by pri- to check their forecasts as to consistency with past
vate business. Thus, business taxes, especially those patterns of fluctuations in activity in both the
on corporate profits, are recorded on an accrual economy as a whole and in its various segments,
rather than a collections basis, and government and consistency among the various assumptions as
expenditures for goods are corrected for the lag to income, savings, investment, prices, and employbetween deliveries and payments therefor. All ment that underlie the forecast.
Certain limitations must be recognized in using
capital transactions, such as receipts from the sale
of government property and changes in loans and these economic accounts. First, needless to say, the
investments of government credit agencies, are statistics do not throw light on all aspects of the
excluded from the income and product accounts economy but only on broad summary categories; thus
although such transactions are included in both the they must be supplemented by the use of additional
economic information, such as that contained in
cash and conventional budgets.
Uses and limitations.—A set of economic accounts other parts of Economic Indicators. Second, since
for the Nation reduces the voluminous detail of the data are national in coverage, their trends and
economic activity to understandable proportions by changes must be carefully interpreted and suppleproviding the factual background for seeing in per- mented by other data for use in the analysis of
spective the operations of the major categories of the regional or individual industry problems. Third,
economy—consumer, business, international, and they do not, of course, provide the assumptions or
government—and the interrelationships or trans- the reasons which one should have for explaining or
actions between and among them. A statement of projecting economic changes; they provide only the
relevant statistical background for intelligent reasonthese accounts serves a number of purposes:
(1) In summarizing the pattern of change in the ing and judgment. Finally, it must be recognized
economy over recent periods, the statement indi- that for some of these categories estimates for both
cates what one should look for among the other receipts and expenditures rest upon data collected for
charts and tables included in Economic Indicators. other purposes, or upon crude or indirect estimates
(2) The accounting methodology needed to pre- in cases where no direct survey is regularly conducted.
pare this statement helps to assure that the various Thus there will be times when it will be difficult to
estimates, such as income, expenditures, savings, in- interpret the meaning of some of the changes in the
vestment, in the other charts and tables are consistent. accounts if statistical discrepancies arising from
(3) It is frequently necessary to project and evalu- technical problems in estimating various items are
ate the likely economic impact of public and private so large that they throw doubt on the importance of
programs on the economy. These accounts make movements in the accounts.
possible the quantitative expression of the comJReferences.—The estimates included in the Nabination of such public and private plans within a tion's economic accounts are all taken from the
framework of the flows of incomes and expenditures national income and product statistics of the Departof various groups in the economy so as to measure ment of Commerce: see references below, under
inconsistencies or imbalances between and among National Income (p. 7).
them, and inconsistencies between and among the
See also Technical Notes on the Nation's Economic
assumptions upon which these plans are based.
Budget, Appendix A: Report of the Joint Committee
Preparation of a Nation's economic budget for a on the Economic Report on the January 1952
2
The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving
[Billions of dollars]
Consumers
Year
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Disposable
personal
income
Business
Personal
saving
Gross
( + ) or retained
dissav- earnings
ing ( - )
Gross
private
domestic
investment
International
Excess
of earnings
( + ) or
investment
Government
Net
foreign
investment
Net
receipts
Purchases
of
goods
and
services
(-)
Surplus
or deficit on
income
and
product
account
Statistical
discrepancy 1
GROSS
NATIONAL
PRODUCT
1929
83.1
79. 0
4.2
11.5
16.2
-4. 7
0.8
9. 5
8.5
1.0
0. 3
104. 4
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
74. 4
63.8
48. 7
45.7
52.0
71.0
61. 3
49. 3
46. 4
51.9
3. 4
2. 5
6
-. 6
1
8. 8
5.2
2. 7
2.6
4. 9
10. 3
5. 5
.9
1. 4
2. 9
-1.5
-.3
1. 8
1.2
2. 0
.7
.2
.2
.2
.4
8.9
6.4
6. 4
6. 7
7.4
9.2
9. 2
8. 1
8.0
9.8
3
-2.8
-1. 7
-1. 4
-2.4
0
.8
.8
.9
.7
91. 1
76.3
58.5
56.0
65.0
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
58. 3
66. 2
71.0
65. 7
70.4
56. 3
62. 6
67.3
64. 6
67.6
2.
3.
3.
1.
2.
0
6
7
1
9
6. 3
6. 5
7. 8
7.8
8. 3
6. 3
8.4
11. 7
6. 7
9. 3
.1
-1.9
-4.0
1. 2
-1.0
1
1
.1
1. 1
.9
8.0
8.9
12.3
11.2
11. 2
10.0
11.8
11. 7
12. 8
13. 3
-2.0
-3.0
.6
-1. 6
-2. 1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
76. 1
93.0
117.5
133. 5
146. 8
71.9
81. 9
89. 7
100.5
109. 8
4.2
11. 1
27. 8
33. 0
36. 9
10.4
11. 5
14. 1
16.3
17.2
13. 2
18. 1
9.9
5.6
7. 1
-2.8
-6.6
4.3
10.7
10. 1
1.5
1. 1
-.2
-2.2
-2. 1
13.3
21. 0
28.3
44.4
44.6
14. 1
-.7
24. 8 -3.8
59. 7 -31.4
88.6 -44.2
96.5 -51. 9
.8
.4
-.8
-1. 7
2.8
100. 6
125. 8
159. 1
192.5
211.4
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
150.
159.
169.
187.
188.
121. 7
146. 6
165.0
177. 6
180. 6
28. 7
12. 6
4.0
10.0
7. 6
15. 6
14. 0
20.0
27.4
28. 7
10.
27.
29.
41.
32.
4
5.2
1 -13. 1
7 -9.7
2 -13.8
5 -3.9
-1.4
4.6
8.9
2.0
.5
43. 1
35. 1
41. 9
44.4
40.4
82.9 -39.7
4.2
30.9
28. 6
13.3
36. 6
7.9
43. 6 -3.2
4. 5
.9
1. 4
-2. 1
.1
213. 6
209.2
232. 2
257.3
257.3
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
206. 1 194. 0
226. 1 208.3
237. 4 . 218.3
250. 2 230.5
254.5 236. 6
12. 1
17. 7
19. 0
19. 7
17.9
28. 6
31.9
32.0
32.8
34. 8
51. 2
56.9
49. 8
50. 3
48.4
-22. 6
-25.0
-17. 8
-17.5
-13. 6
-2.2
.2
-.2
-2.0
-. 4
50. 1
69. 0
74. 1
77.6
70. 3
42.0
62.8
77.5
84.4
76. 6
8. 1
6.2
-3.3
-6.8
-6.4
.2
1.3
2.0
2.6
1.7
285. 1
328.2
345.4
363.2
361.2
1955
1956
270.2
287. 2
254. 4
267. 2
15. 8
20. 0
39.8
40. 9
60. 6 -20. 8
65. 9 -25. 0
-. 4
1.4
79. 7
85.0
77. 1
80. 2
2. 6
4.8
2. 1
1. 6
391.7
414.7
4
2
0
6
2
-.2
. 72.5
1. 1
82. 7
-.2
90. 8
.5
85. 2
1. 2
91. 1
J Excess of the value of the estimated gross national product computed by the final products method over Its Independently estimated value computed by adding
necessary conceptual adjustments to the national income.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers.
Economic Report of the President, Senate Report
No. 1295, 82d Congress, 2d session, pages 99-105,
and statistical materials prepared by the Council of
Economic Advisers for inclusion with the Economic
Report of the President.
For annual projections of these accounts, see the
reports of the Joint Economic Committee on tb.p
95975—57
2
annual Economic Reports of the President—for
example, 1957 Joint Economic Report, February 28,
1957, House Report No. 175, 85th Congress, 1st
session. For longer run projections, see Potential
Economic Growth of the United States During the Next
Decade, 1954, Joint Committee Print, 83d Congress,
2d session.
3
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE
Description of series.—Gross National Product
(often called GNP) represents the total national output of goods and services at current market prices.
It measures this output in terms of the expenditures
by which these goods are acquired. These expenditures are the sum of four major items: (1) personal
consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net foreign investment, and
(4) government purchases of goods and services.
The goods and services included in the GNP are for
the most part those actually bought for final use in
legal markets. There are a number of exceptions,
the most important of which is the rental value of
owner-occupied dwellings.
The GNP series measures the product attributable
to the factors of production—labor and property—
supplied by residents of continental United States.
For the most part these factors are located in this
country, but the GNP total also includes earnings
of American employees of the United States Government stationed abroad, foreign interest and dividends received by Americans, and the profits from
foreign branches of American business.
"Personal consumption expenditures" measures
the sum of money and imputed expenditures made
by consumers (individuals, nonprofit institutions
such as hospitals, etc.) for goods and services. This
series is described below, in the section on Disposition
of Personal Income.
"Gross private domestic investment" consists of
new construction, producers' durable equipment, and
changes in business inventories. This component
of GNP is described below, in a separate section
(p. 16).
"Net foreign investment" measures the net change
in the international assets and liabilities of this
country (including our gold stocks) arising out of
current transactions with foreign countries. It is
the sum of (1) domestic output sold abroad minus
United States purchases of foreign output, (2) cash
gifts and contributions received from abroad minus
those sent abroad, and (3) production abroad by
United States labor and property minus production
in the United States by foreign-owned labor and
property.
"Government purchases of goods and services"
are those made by Federal, State, and local governments. They include (1) net purchases of new
goods (such as school buildings and armaments),
(2) payments for services (principally compensation
for government employees), (3) gross investment
by government enterprises, and (4) net government
4
purchases from abroad and international contributions. Items which do not represent current productive activity—such as transfer payments (e. g.,
social security and veterans' payments), government interest, subsidies, loans, and other financial
transfers—are excluded. The GNP series on Government purchases differs from expenditures shown
in the Federal Budget, which include many but not
all of these items. Differences may also arise because
of variation in the time at which expenditures occur
and are recorded.
Statistical procedures.—Hundreds of basic economic
series are evaluated, adjusted, and combined, in the
process of preparing the GNP estimates. For example, consumer expenditures are estimated for
benchmark years primarily from data in the Censuses
of Business and Manufactures, reports of the Department of Agriculture, Internal Revenue Service,
and Interstate Commerce Commission, with current
quarterly estimates carried forward by the extensive
sample reports of the Census Bureau's Monthly
Report on Retail Trade, and data from other sources.
Construction activity is estimated jointly by the
Departments of Commerce and Labor, as described
below in the section on New Construction (p. 41).
Investment in producers' durable equipment is
estimated for benchmark years from Census of
Manufactures and related data, with current quarterly and annual totals estimated from sample surveys of the Department of Commerce and financial
reports to other agencies. For details of the methods
used, reference should be made to the comprehensive
study by the Department of Commerce, the 1954
National Income Supplement to the Survey of Current Business.
Relation to other series.—Two other series widely
used as indicators of the general level of economic
activity are national income and the Federal Reserve
index of industrial production. Gross national product and national income are compiled from the same
series of accounts, but whereas the former measures
the market value of total output, the latter measures
only the earnings of labor and property (net of capital consumption) which flow from that output. National income is smaller than the gross national product chiefly because the latter includes (1) allowance
for depreciation and other capital consumption, and
(2) indirect taxes (such as sales and excise taxes).
The GNP measures total output, whereas the
Federal Reserve index of industrial production
covers only two sections of the economy—manufactures and mining. The products in the GNP
Gross National Product or Expenditure
[Billions of dollars]
Year
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
Total
gross
national
product
in 1956
prices 1
186. 8
169.2
156.7
133. 4
129. 8
143.5
Persona] Gross
conTotal
prisump- vate dogross
national tion ex- mestic
product pendiinvesttures
ment
104. 4
91. 1
76.3
58. 5
56. 0
65. 0
79.0
71.0
61. 3
49. 3
46. 4
51. 9
16. 2
Government purchases of goods and services
Net
foreign
investment
Total 2
0.8
8.5
. 7
. 2
. 2
.2
. 4
10.3
5. 5
. 9
1. 4
2. 9
Federal
9.2
9.2
8. 1
8. 0
9.8
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
158.2
179. 1
190.0
181.2
196.0
72.
82.
90.
85.
91.
5
7
8
2
1
56.
62.
67.
64.
67.
3
6
3
6
6
6. 3
8.4
11. 7
6. 7
9.3
1
1
. 1
1. 1
.9
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
213.3
247.0
278. 3
309.2
332. 1
100.
125.
159.
192.
211.
6
8
1
5
4
71.
81.
89.
100.
109.
9
9
7
5
8
13.2
18. 1
9. 9
5.6
7. 1
1. 5
1. 1
-.2
-2. 2
-2. 1
14.
24.
59.
88.
96.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
325.2
290. 1
289.0
302. 4
301. 7
213.
209.
232.
257.
257.
6
2
2
3
3
121. 7
146. 6
165.0
177. 6
180. 6
10. 4
27. 1
29. 7
41. 2
32.5
-1. 4
4. 6
8.9
2.0
. 5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
329. 8
354.2
366. 9
382.0
375. 6
285.
328.
345.
363.
361.
1
2
4
2
2
194.0
208. 3
218. 3
230. 5
236. 6
51.2
56.9
49. 8
50. 3
48. 4
-2.2
. 2
-.2
-2.0
-. 4
1955
1956
402.5
414. 7
391. 7
414. 7
254. 4
267. 2
60. 6
65. 9
4
1. 4
Total
State
and
local
National
security 3
Other
1. 3
(4)
(4)
7.2
1. 4
1.5
1. 5
2. 0
3. 0
(44)
(4)
(4)
(4)
()
(44)
()
(44)
(4)
()
7.8
7.7
6.6
6.0
6.8
(44)
()
(44)
(4)
(4)
3.9
7. 1
7.0
7.2
7.5
8.2
2. 2
13. 8
49.6
80. 4
88. 6
4.0
3.2
2.7
1. 5
1.6
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.4
7.5
2
2.
4.
4.
5.
5.
9
8
6
3
2
1
8
7
6
5
6.
16.
52.
81.
89.
2
9
0
2
0
82.
30.
28.
36.
43.
9
9
6
6
6
74. 8
20. 9
15. 8
21.0
25. 4
75.
21.
13.
16.
19.
9
2
3
0
3
1.0
2.5
3.8
5. 6
6. 6
8. 1
10.0
12.8
15.6
18.2
42.
62.
77.
84.
76.
0
8
5
4
6
22.
41.
54.
59.
48.
1
0
3
5
9
18. 5
37.3
48. 8
51. 5
43. 1
3.9
4.2
5.8
8.4
6.2
19.9
21. 8
23. 2
24. 9
27.7
46. 8
47. 2
41.3
42. 4
5.9
5.2
30. 3
33.0
10.0
11. 8
11. 7
12. 8
13. 3
77. 1
80. 2
()
1.3
(4)
1 Approximate conversion of the Department of Commerce series in 1947 prices, by major components, using the implicit price deflators converted to a 1956 base,
* Less Government sales.
• Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For further details, see Economic Report of the President,
January 1955 (p. 137), and National Income, 1954 Edition (p. 148). These expenditures are not comparable with the "major national security" category in The Budget of
the U. S. Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June S0t 1958, and shown in Economic Indicators under Federal budget receipts and expenditures (see below, p. 70).
4 Not available.
NOTE.—Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929. Detail will not necessarily"add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
series are final product, whereas the Federal Reserve
index includes both final and intermediate product,
and thus may show an increase or decrease in activity
to be reflected later or not at all in the flow of final
output. The GNP series in current prices combines
price and volume changes, whereas the Federal
Reserve index measures physical volume.
Uses and limitations.—The GNP total is the most
inclusive monetary measure of trends in the economy
as a whole which is currently estimated. It also
has high value as an analytic tool, since the movements of many sectors of the economy, including the
sales of many industries and enterprises, are quite
closely related to changes in the level of GNP.
Since GNP is measured in current dollars, the
effects of changes in both the price level and the
physical volume of output are combined, and movements in the total from quarter to quarter should not
be interpreted as necessarily representing changes in
the physical quantity of goods and services produced
by the economy. On an annual basis, however,
GNP estimates corrected for price changes ("deflated
GNP") are available which show changes in the total
volume of national output. One of the most important characteristics of the GNP is that changes
in the total can be analyzed by examination of
changes in its components, notably purchases by
consumers, private business investment, government
expenditures, and the movement of foreign trade.
References.—See below, under National Income.
5
NATIONAL INCOME
Description of series.—National Income is the
aggregate of earnings by labor and property from
the current production of goods and services by the
Nation's economy. It is the sum of five major
items: (1) compensation of employees, (2) proprietors' income, (3) rental income of persons, (4) net
interest, and (5) corporate profits.
"Compensation of employees" is the sum of wages,
salaries, and certain supplements, such as employer
contributions for social insurance.
"Proprietors' income" measures the monetary
earnings and income in kind of sole proprietorships
(including doctors, lawyers, and other self-employed),
partnerships and producers' cooperatives, exclusive
of capital gains or losses. The farm proprietors' income shown here is conceptually the same as farm
operators' net income including adjustment for
inventory change, as shown below in the section on
Farm Income. Some variations between the two
series prior to 1952 result from differences in the
timing of revisions. The supplementary income
which individuals obtain from renting property does
not appear here, but under rental income of persons.
"Rental income of persons" consists of (1) net
money income from rental of real property, (2) estimated net rental value to homeowners of their
homes, and (3) royalties received from patents,
copyrights, and rights to natural resources.
"Net interest" measures both the money interest
and the imputed interest accruing to the Nation's
residents from private business and from abroad,
minus government interest disbursements to business which appear as part of business incomes.
Imputed interest consists of the value of financial
services received by persons without explicit payment and property income withheld by life-insurance
companies and mutual financial intermediaries on
account of persons.
"Corporate profits" are the earnings of corporations organized for profit, measured before Federal
and State profit taxes, but without deduction of
depletion charges and exclusive of capital gains and
losses. (For a more extended discussion, see section
on Corporate Profits below, p. 14.)
"Corporate inventory valuation adjustment"
measures the excess of the value of change in the
volume of corporate inventories (in terms of average
prices during the period) over the change in terms
of book values. This adjustment is required since,
as is customary in business accounting, corporate
profits are reported inclusive of inventory profits or
loss, whereas only the value of the real change in
6
inventories is counted as current output in the
national product.
Statistical procedures.—The methods of estimation
employed in the very complex area of national
income are described in detail in the 1954 National
Income Supplement to the Survey of Current Business. The following indicate briefly the types of
estimating procedures used:
"Compensation of employees"—reliable data are
available each year from the social-security system,
with current monthly estimates resting chiefly on
employer reports to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
on employment and earnings.
"Proprietors' income"—estimated from income-tax
returns to the Internal Revenue Service, usually
obtained every second year, with current quarterly
data derived from analysis of trends in sales and
corporate profits in individual industries.
"Rental income of persons"—estimated from a
variety of Census Bureau, Internal Revenue Service,
Department of Agriculture, and BLS data on rents
paid and on the distribution of property ownership
and rental income between persons and business.
"Net interest"—estimated from reports to the
Internal Revenue Service, Bureau of the Census,
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
and other agencies on interest and debt.
Relation to other series.—The relation of national
income to gross national product is discussed above
(p. 4); and the relation to personal income is defined
below (p. 9).
Uses and limitations.—The national income measures earnings from current output and is a useful
measure of the rate of flow of such earnings. By
definition it excludes income from the revaluation of
past output—e. g., capital gains and losses. The
movements of this series correspond with movements
in production. However, the value of the national
income series lies more in the composition than in
the total. It may mean little to know that national
income (unadjusted for price changes) has gone up;
but it may be very important to know the relative
contribution of wages and profits to that increase.
The chief cautions for use result partly from the
definitions used, and partly from the nature of the
basic data. With respect to the first, care must be
taken not to interpret movements in the series as
measuring something other than they are intended
to measure. For example, variations in wages and
profits do not necessarily indicate changes in the
welfare of workers or in the ability of corporations to
provide new capital. For such purposes, these
National Income
[Billions of dollars]
Proprietors' income
Rental
income
of
persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Total
national
income
Compensation
of employees 1
1929
87.8
51. 1
6.0
8.8
5.4
6.4
10. 1
9. 6
0.5
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
75. 7
59.7
42. 5
40. 2
49.0
46.8
39. 7
31. 1
29.5
34.3
4. 1
3.2
1. 9
2.4
2.4
7.4
5.6
3.4
3.2
4. 6
4. 8
3.8
2.7
2.0
1. 7
6.0
5.8
5. 4
5.0
4. 9
6. 6
1. 6
»2.0
-2.0
1. 1
3.3
—. 8
-3.0
. 2
1.7
3.3
2.4
1.0
-2. 1
6
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
57. 1
64.9
73. 6
67.6
72.8
37.3
42.9
47. 9
45. 0
48. 1
5.0
4.0
5. 6
4.3
4.3
5.4
6.5
7. 1
6.8
7.3
1.7
1.8
2. 1
2. 6
2.7
4.8
4. 7
4.7
4. 6
4. 6
2.9
5.0
6.2
4.3
5.7
3. 1
5.7
6.2
3.3
6.4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
81.6
104.7
137.7
170.3
182. 6
52. 1
64. 8
85.3
109. 6
121. 3
4.6
6.5
10.0
11.4
11.5
8.4
10. 9
13.9
16.8
18.0
2.9
3. 5
4.5
5. 1
5.4
4. 5
4. 5
4.3
3.7
3.3
9. 1
14.5
19.7
23.8
23. 0
9.3
17.0
20.9
24. 6
23.3
-. 2
— 2. 5
-1.2
-.8
-.3
1945_
1946
1947
1948
1949
181.2
179. 6
197. 2
221. 6
216. 2
123.2
117.7
128. 8
140.9
140. 9
11.8
13. 9
14.5
16.7
12. 7
19.0
21.3
19.9
21. 6
21. 4
5. 6
6.2
6. 5
7.2
7.9
3.2
3. 1
3.8
4. 5
5.2
18.4
17.3
23. 6
30.6
28. 1
19.0
22.6
29.5
32.8
26. 2
-.6
-5.3
-5.9
-2. 2
1.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
240.0
277. 0
290.2
302. 1
299.0
154.3
180.4
195. 1
208. 1
206. 8
13. 3
16.0
15. 1
13. 3
12.7
22. 9
24.8
25.7
25.9
25. 9
8.5
9. 1
9. 9
10.2
10. 6
5.9
6.8
7.4
8.7
9.8
35. 1
39.9
36. 9
36.0
33. 1
40.0
41.2
35.9
37.0
33.5
-4.9
-1.3
1.0
-1.0
-.3
1955
1956
324. 1
343. 6
223. 1
241.4
11.9
11. 6
27.3
28.0
10.2
10.3
10.9
11. 9
40.7
40. 4
42.5
43.0
-1.7
-2. 6
Year
i Includes employer contributions for social insurance.
> Less than $50 million.
Farm
Business
and professional
Net
interest
Total
Profits Inventory
valuation
before
taxes adjustment
2
-.2
-.7
()
1.0
7
(See also table on Sources of Personal Income, p. 8.)
NOTE .—Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
variations must be considered in the light of other
factors such as the cost of living and the cost of new
plant and equipment. With respect to the second—
which is particularly applicable to the current data
on proprietors' income, rental income of persons,
and the corporate inventory valuation adjustment—
it should be recognized that many of the available
data permit only fair approximations of the phenomena being measured, and therefore too great
reliance should not be placed on these statistics as
instruments of precise measurement.
References.—The official quarterly estimates for the
series included in the national income and product
accounts are published by the Office of Business
Economics, Department of Commerce, in the Survey
of Current Business: first quarter in the May issue,
second quarter in August, third quarter in November, and fourth quarter in the following February.
Preliminary quarterly estimates by the Council of
Economic Advisers appear in Economic Indicators
in the month following the end of each quarter.
Preliminary annual estimates are published by the
Office of Business Economics in the February issue
of the Survey, revised estimates in the July issue.
Complete annual and quarterly statistics for 1929-51,
with and without seasonal adjustment, and a detailed explanation of fundamental concepts and
underlying procedures are given in the 1954 National
Income Supplement to the Survey of Current Business.
Revised annual and quarterly data for 1952 and 1953
and data for 1954-56 are presented in the July 1957
issue of the Survey, with an explanation of the
revisions. For personal income, detailed State estimates are presented in "Personal Income by States
since 1929," issued as a supplement to the Survey in
1957.
Sources of Personal Income
[Billions of dollars]
Labor income Proprietors' income
(wage and
salary disTotal
Business
personal bursements
and other
and proincome
Farm
labor infessional
come)1
Year
Rental
income
of
persons
Dividends
Personal
interest
income
NonLess: PerTrans- sonal con- agricultural
fer pay- tributions
ments
for social personal
insurance income 2
1929
85.8
51. 0
6.0
8.8
5.4
5. 8
7.4
1. 5
0.1
77. 7
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
76.9
65. 7
50. 1
47.2
53. 6
46. 7
39. 6
30.9
29.4
34. 1
4. 1
3.2
1.9
2.4
2. 4
7.4
5.6
3.4
3.2
4. 6
4. 8
3. 8
2. 7
2.0
1. 7
5.
4.
2.
2.
2.
5
1
6
1
6
. 6.9
6.9
6. 6
6.2
6. 1
1.5
2.7
2. 2
2. 1
2.2
. 1
. 2
.2
.2
.2
70.8
60. 9
46.9
43. 6
49.8
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
60. 2
68. 5
73.9
68. 6
72. 9
37.2
42. 5
46. 7
43. 6
46. 6
5.0
4.0
5. 6
4. 3
4. 3
5.4
6. 5
7. 1
6. 8
7.3
1.
1.
2.
2.
2.
7
8
1
6
7
2. 9
4. 5
4. 7
3.2
3.8
5.9
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.8
2.4
3.5
2.4
2.8
3. 0
.2
.2
. 6
. 6
. 6
53.9
63. 2
67.0
62.8
67. 1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
78.7
96. 3
123. 5
151.4
165. 7
50.5
62.8
83.0
106.7
118.5
4. 6
6.5
10. 0
11. 4
11.5
8.4
10.9
13.9
16.8
18.0
2.9
3.5
4. 5
5. 1
5.4
4.0
4.5
4. 3
4. 5
4. 7
5.8
5.8
5. 8
5.8
6. 2
3. 1
3. 1
3. 1
3.0
3. 6
.7
.8
1.2
1.8
2.2
72.6
88.0
111.5
137. 6
151.6
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
171.2
178.0
190. 5
208. 7
206. 8
119.4
113.8
125.2
137. 9
137.4
11.8
13.9
14.5
16. 7
12. 7
19.0
21.3
19.9
21.6
21.4
5. 6
6.2
6. 5
7.2
7. 9
4. 7
5. 8
6.5
7.2
7.5
6. 9
7. 6
8.2
9.0
9.8
6.2
11.4
11.8
11.3
12.4
2.3
2.0
2. 1
2.2
2.2
156. 8
161. 1
172.8
188.5
190.8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
227.0
255. 3
271. 8
286.0
287.4
150. 3
175. 6
190. 3
203.4
201.7
13. 3
16.0
15. 1
13. 3
12. 7
22.9
24.8
25.7
25.9
25.9
8.5
9. 1
9. 9
10. 2
10. 6
9.2
9. 1
9.0
9.3
9. 9
10. 6
11. 6
12.3
13. 7
15.0
* 15. 1
12. 6
13.2
14.3
16.2
2.9
3. 4
3.8
3.9
4. 6
210.5
235. 7
253. 1
269.2
271.3
305.9
326. 9
217.2
234. 7
11.9
11. 6
27.3
28.0
10. 2
10. 3
11.0
11.9
16. 1
17. 6
17. 4
18. 5
5. 2
5. 7
290. 6
311.7
1955
1956
—
1 Compensation of employees (see national income table, p. 7) excluding employer contribution for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over disbursements.
1 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations.
3 Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year.
NOTE.—Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME and PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
surance. "Proprietors' income" and "Rental income
(Because oj their close relationship, these
of persons" are defined above, in the section on
two series are discussed together.)
Description of series.—"Personal income" is com- National Income. "Dividends" are cash dividend
posed of income received currently by individuals, disbursements by corporations organized for profit to
unincorporated businesses, and nonprofit institutions stockholders who are United States persons. "Per(including pension, trust, and welfare funds). This sonal interest income" is the "Net interest" comincome is divided into labor income, proprietors7 ponent of National Income plus net interest paid by
income, rental income of persons, dividends, per- the government. "Transfer payments" include
sonal interest, and transfer payments. Capital payments not resulting from current production,
gains and losses are excluded. Most of the income such as social-security benefits, military pensions,
is in monetary form, but there are important excep- corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions, direct relief,
tions—chiefly rental value to owner-occupants of and consumer bad debts. They do not include
government interest.
homes and value of food consumed on farms.
"Disposable personal income" is equal to personal
"Labor income" is principally wages and salaries.
It excludes employer contributions for social in- income less taxes on individuals (including income
Per Capita Disposable Income
Year
Total disposable personal
income (billions of dollars)1
Current
prices
Per capita disposable personal income (dollars) 1
Current
prices
1956
prices 3
1956
prices 2
1929-
83. 1
131.7
682
1, 081
1930.
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
74.4
63. 8
48. 7
45. 7
52.0
121. 1
114. 2
96. 7
96. 1
105.7
604
514
389
364
411
984
919
773
765
835
1935.
1936.,
1937..
19381939..
58. 3
66. 2
71.0
65.7
70.4
115. 5
129. 8
134.5
126. 6
137. 9
458
517
551
505
538
907
1,014
1, 044
973
1,053
1940..
1941..
1942..
1943..
1944..
76. 1
93.0
117.5
133. 5
146. 8
147. 7
171.9
195. 9
209. 6
226. 8
576
697
871
977
1, 060
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
118
288
452
534
638
1945-.
1946_.
1947..
1948..
1949..
150. 4
159. 2
169.0
187. 6
188.2
227.
221.
205.
212.
214.
1, 075
1, 126
1,173
1, 279
1, 261
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
624
568
427
445
439
1950-.
1951..
1952..
1953-.
1954..
206. 1
226. 1
237.4
250. 2
254.5
232. 9
236. 7
243. 0
254.0
257. 6
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
536
534
548
592
586
1955-.
1956..
270. 2
287.2
274. 3
287. 2
1, 635
1, 708
1
7
6
0
8
359
465
512
568
567
Population
(thousands)5
1, 660
1, 708
i Income less taxes.
1 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1956** 100.
* Includes Armed Forces overseas. Annual data as of July 1.
NOTE.—Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929.
Source: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, and Council of Economic Advisers.
and other taxes not deductible as business expense)
and other general government revenues received
from individuals as individuals.
"Disposable personal income in 1956 prices" is
the preceding series divided by the Consumer Price
Index, with 1956=100. The income difference, for
example, between 1939 and 1956 is less in real terms
than is indicated by comparing the current dollar
estimates of 70.4 and 287.2 billion, respectively.
Income in 1939 would be almost doubled in comparison with 1956 because of lower prices.
"Per capita disposable personal income" is the
disposable personal income series divided by the
Census Bureau estimate of total midyear population.
Relation to other series.—Personal income differs
from national income by including transfer payments
and government interest and by excluding contributions for social insurance (by employee and
employer), the corporate inventory valuation
adjustment and corporate profits tax liability and
undistributed corporate profits.
Uses and limitations.—The estimates for personal
income and components and for disposable income
measure trends in spending power of individuals.
The inclusion of substantial nonmonetary items—
imputed rent, interest, food, fuel—should be noted
but the effect of these items should not be overemphasized. They tend to make the income estimates more stable, but have little effect on the ability
of the estimates to show when a change is occurring
and the direction of the shift.
Disposable personal income gives a more direct
measure of income available for spending, since it
approximates take-home income, than does personal
income. For measuring changes, in real terms, in
consumers7 buying power, the estimates of disposable
income in constant prices are to be preferred.
References.—See above under National Income.
9
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Description of series.—"Personal income" and between benchmarks and quarterly consumption
"Disposable personal income" are discussed in the expenditure estimates rest chiefly on the trends
shown by the Census Bureau's retail sales figures
preceding section.
"Personal consumption expenditures" is the sum by kind of store, Federal Reserve Board data for
of money and imputed expenditures made by con- department stores, State sales-tax reports, and other
sumers (individuals, nonprofit institutions such as source data.
Relation to other series.—Estimates of personal
hospitals, etc.) for goods and services. The expenditure total covers total purchase cost to consumers, consumption expenditures will show much the same
including general sales taxes. The full cost of trends from quarter to quarter as the figures for
automobiles, refrigerators, furniture, and the like is total retail sales. However, personal consumption
included in the period when sold—quarter or year— expenditures also include a wide variety of services
regardless of when payments are made or completed. and such items as food produced and consumed on
The purchase of homes is not included as an expendi- farms which are outside of retail trade. Conversely,
ture: instead the estimated rental value to the retail trade includes some commodity items, such as
building materials, gasoline and trucks, which are
homeowner is included if he occupies the home.
"Durable goods" are those items which generally not part of personal consumption expenditures.
The estimate of personal net saving and the net
last three years or longer in use. "Nondurable
goods" are items with a shorter life. "Services" claims estimate of the Securities and Exchange
include housing, telephone, electricity, shoe repair, Commission differ in level and trend. The chief
gas and water, and also such items as the expense of reason for the difference is the inclusion in the
handling life insurance, and banking services fur- personal saving series (and not in the net claims
nished without payment (such as free checks where estimates) of net purchases of nonfarm residences
and net increases in persons' equities in farms and
a minimum balance is maintained).
"Personal saving" is equal to disposable personal other unincorporated businesses. (For a detailed
income less personal consumption expenditures. As reconciliation of the two series, see table 6 of the
such, it conceptually includes not merely cash and national income section in the July issues of the
bank deposits but changes in reserves of life insurance Survey of Current Business.)
Uses and limitations.—The estimates of personal
companies, increase in equity of farmers (e. g., land,
consumption expenditures represent a generally
machinery), homeowners, etc.
Statistical procedures.—Most personal consumptionuseful, reliable measure of trends in consumer
expenditures for goods are estimated for benchmark purchases. They may be used to study trends in
years from the value of the output of specified items the ratio of wages, or more generally of income, to
as reported in the census of manufactures, less the expenditure, and to review the division of the
portion of this output bought by business and gov- national output between consumer takings, business
ernment or exported. To the consumer portion of capital formation, and government defense or other
manufactured products is added the value of non- expenditures.
manufactured consumer goods (for example, nonThe estimates of personal saving are among the
processed foods) to derive producers' output for least satisfactory of the significant series which
consumers. Successive adjustments are added for appear in the national income accounts. They are
transportation, imports and exports, wholesale and the residual from two larger estimates. The errors
retail inventory changes, wholesale and retail mark- and limitations present in the hundreds of series,
ups, and sales taxes. Transportation charges are developed for other purposes, which must be used
computed from data on transportation compiled by at present in estimating the national income do not
the Interstate Commerce Commission and other completely cancel out. To this extent these errors
sources. Wholesale and retail markups are derived are transmitted into the saving estimate. Quarterfrom census of business and Internal Revenue Service to-quarter changes are, however, subject to revision
data. For service items a great variety of sources as better data become available.
and procedures are used.
References.—See above, under National Income.
Estimates of consumption expenditures for years
10
Disposition of Personal Income
Less:
Equals:
DisposPersonal
able
income Personal
taxes 1 personal
income
Year
Less: Personal consumption
expenditures
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Services
Equals:
Personal
saving
Billions of dollars
1929
85.8
2.6
83. 1
79.0
9.2
37.7
32. 1
4. 2
5.0
1930.
1931
1932.
1933
1934
76.9
65. 7
50. 1
47.2
53. 6
2.5
1.9
1.5
1.5
1. 6
74.4
63.8
48.7
45. 7
52.0
71.0
61.3
49.3
46. 4
51.9
7.2
5.5
3.6
3.5
4.2
34.0
28.9
22.8
22.3
26.7
29. 8
26.9
22. 9
20. 7
21. 0
3.4
2. 5
-.6
6
. 1
4.6
3.9
-1.3
-1. 4
.2
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
60.2
68.5
73.9
68. 6
72.9
1. 9
2.3
2. 9
2.9
2. 4
58.3
66.2
71.0
65.7
70.4
56. 3
62. 6
67.3
64. 6
67.6
5. 1
6.3
6.9
5.7
6.7
29.3
32. 8
35. 2
34.0
35. 1
21. 9
23.5
25. 1
25.0
25. 8
2.0
3.6
3. 7
1. 1
2.9
3.5
5.4
5.3
1. 6
4. 1
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
78.7
96. 3
123.5
151. 4
165.7
2. 6
3.3
6.0
17. 8
18.9
76. 1
93.0
117. 5
133. 5
146.8
71.9
81.9
89. 7
100.5
109.8
7.8
9.7
7.0
6.6
6.8
37.2
43. 2
51.3
59.3
65.4
26.9
29.0
31.5
34. 7
37.7
4.2
11. 1
27.8
33.0
36. 9
5.5
11.9
23.6
24.7
25. 2
171.2
178.0
190.5
208. 7
206. 8
20.9
18. 8
21. 5
21. 1
18.7
150. 4
159.2
169.0
187. 6
188. 2
121.7
146. 6
165.0
177. 6
180.6
8. 1
15.9
20.6
22.2
23. 6
73.2
84. 5
93. 1
98. 7
96.9
40.4
46.2
51.3
56. 7
60. 1
28.7
12. 6
4.0
10.0
7.6
19. 1
7.9
2.4
5.3
4.0
227.0
255.3
271. 8
286.0
287.4
20.9
29.3
34.4
35.8
33.0
206. 1
226. 1
237. 4
250.2
254.5
194.0
208. 3
218.3
230.5
236.6
28.6
27. 1
26. 6
29.8
29.4
100.4
111. 1
116. 1
119. 1
120. 6
65.0
.70. 1
75.6
81.7
86.6
12. 1
17.7
19.0
19. 7
17.9
5.9
7.8
8.0
7.9
7.0
305.9
326. 9
35.8
39.7
270. 2
287.2
254.4
267.2
35. 6
33.9
126.0
133.3
92.8
99.9
15. 8
20.0
5.8
7.0
1945
1946.
1947
1948
1949
—
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
—
1955.
1956..
1
Includes also such Items as fines, penalties, and donations.
NOTE.—Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
FARM INCOME
Description of series.—Farm operators7 gross and
net farm income and farm production expenses are
estimated annually and quarterly by the Agricultural Marketing Service of the Department of Agriculture. "Realized gross farm income" of farm
operators is the sum of (1) cash receipts from farm
marketings, (2) the value of farm products consumed
directly in farm households, (3) gross rental value
of farm dwellings, and (4) Government payments
to farmers. "Farm production expenses," which
now account for nearly two-thirds of gross farm
income, are the aggregate of all current farm operating expenses and overhead costs to farm operators.
Farm operators' "Net income, excluding net change
in inventories" is the remainder of realized gross
95975—57
3
farm income after farm production expenses have
been deducted; and "Net income, including net
change in inventories" takes into account changes
in farmers' holdings of animals and crops. The
"Net income per farm including net change in
inventories" is calculated by dividing the U. S.
totals by the estimated number of farms.
Statistical procedures.—For the computation of
gross farm income, the estimates of cash receipts from
marketings are based upon information collected by
the Department of Agriculture on the quantity sold
and average prices received by farmers for the various
farm commodities. The current estimates of crop
marketings are based on estimated production, the
normal percentage of the crop sold, and the usual
11
seasonal movement to market, supplemented by
available current data on market receipts. For most
of the important livestock items, current reports on
production or market receipts are available and are
used to estimate current livestock marketings. The
estimates of cash receipts from marketings are later
revised as more complete data on production, cropyear sales and monthly marketings become available.
The value of farm products consumed directly in
farm households is estimated on the basis of information obtained from farmers (annually for important
products and less frequently for other products) on
the volume of home consumption, valued at prices
received by farmers for the sale of similar products.
The gross rental value of farm dwellings is designed
to represent the amount which would have to be
paid if the dwellings were rented separately from the
farm. Government payments to farmers comprise
all Federal payments made directly to farmers in
which a sale or title transfer to the Government is
not involved—at the present time, Soil Bank, conservation, wool, and Sugar Act payments. Net
Commodity Credit Corporation loans and purchaseagreement deliveries are included in cash receipts
from marketings.
The estimates of the farm production expenses of
farm operators are based on about 40 separate series.
Some of the operating expense series are based on
data obtained in the censuses of agriculture, with
interpolations for intercensal years; others are based
on special surveys and trade information. Depreciation charges on buildings, motor vehicles, and other
farm machinery and equipment are estimated
annually as the amount which farmers would have
had to pay if they had replaced, at prices prevailing
during the year, the amount of plant and equipment
used up during the year. Estimates are also made
for taxes on farm property, interest on outstanding
indebtedness, and net property-insurance premiums.
The net change in inventories reflects the physical
change in all livestock and crops on farms, except
crops under CCC loan, with the change valued at
average prices for the year.
Annual estimates are made of the number of farms,
based on benchmark data from the censuses of agriculture adjusted for incompleteness. (In the 1954
Census of Agriculture the underenumeration was 8.1
percent for number of farms and 5.4 percent for
land in farms.) National estimates for intercensal
years are the sum of separate State estimates.
They are based on data which vary from State to
State.
12
Relation to other series.—The series on net income
of farm operators including net change in inventories
is conceptually the same as farm proprietors* income
in the national income series (see above, p. 6), although some variations exist prior to 1952 because of
differences in the timing of revisions.
The Department of Agriculture also publishes estimates of "Net income of persons on farms from
farming," which include net farm income of farm
operators, net change in inventories, and wages paid
to farm workers who live on farms. This series,
plus farm wages, interest, and rents paid to persons
not living on farms, comprises the estimates of "Net
income from agriculture."
Uses and limitations.—The estimates of farm
operators' realized gross farm income are for the
most part based on a comprehensive body of basic
data and are considered to be reasonably accurate.
The estimates of farm production expenses, however,
are based in part on outdated expenditure patterns
and may be subject to a fair-sized margin of error.
Any errors in the expense estimates are fully reflected
in the estimates of net income of farm operators. A
comprehensive survey of farmers' expenditures was
made early in 1956, and the results of this survey
will be used to improve present estimates of farm
production expenses and hence of farm operators'
net income.
Information on total farm income and on net
income per farm is useful as a general indicator of
the economic well-being of a broad sector of the
economy. Its usefulness is limited, however, because of a wide variation in type-of-farming operations and in size of farms: some segments of the
farm economy may prosper at the same time that
other segments are seriously distressed. In order
to supply more detailed data on how the different
segments of the farm economy are affected by
changing prices of farm products and of farm production items, the Farm Economics Research
Division of the Agricultural Research Service has
developed data on farm costs and returns for about
30 of the more important type-of-farming areas,
and several more are being developed.
References.—The basic release of the farm income
data is the Farm Income Situation, published bimonthly by the Agricultural Marketing Service.
The annual series are also published, with other
principal series relating to agriculture, in the Department of Agriculture's annual Agricultural Statistics.
The methods used to estimate farm operators'
income are described in detail in Major Statistical
Farm Income
Farm operators' income
Year
Net income
Realized
gross farm
income 1
Farm production
expenses
Excluding
net change
in inventories
2
Including
net change
in inventories 3
Net income per farm
including net change in
inventories
Current
prices
Billions of dollars
1956
prices 4
Dollars
1929
13. 9
7. 6
6. 3
6.
1
943
1,715
1930
1931,
1932
1933
1934.
11.
8.
6.
7.
8.
4
4
4
1
5
6.
5.
4.
4.
4.
9
5
4
3
7
4. 5
2. 9
1.9
2. 8
3. 9
4. 3
3.3
2. 6
2. 9
2.0
650
506
305
382
434
1,250
1, 124
803
979
986
1935
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
9.
10.
11.
10.
10.
7
7
3
1
6
5.
5.
6.
5.
6.
1
6
1
8
2
4. 6
5. 1
5.2
4. 3
4. 4
5. 3
4. 3
6.0
4. 4
4. 5
778
643
911
675
697
1,
1,
1,
1,
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944
11.0
13. 8
18. 8
23. 4
24. 4
6.
7.
9.
11.
12.
7
7
9
5
2
4.
6.
8.
11.
12.
3
2
8
9
2
11. 8
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
25. 8
29. 3
34.0
34. 6
31. 6
12. 9
14. 3
16. 8
8
0
2
9
7
12.4
14. 9
15. 5
17. 7
12. 9
2, 080
17. 9
12.
15.
17.
15.
13.
2,518
2, 632
3, 049
2, 248
3,
3,
3,
3,
2,
200
449
096
388
584
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
32. 1
37. 1
36. 7
35. 1
33.7
19.2
22. 3
22. 5
21. 2
21. 5
12.9
14. 8
14. 3
13. 9
12. 2
13.
16.
15.
13.
12.
7
1
1
3
7
2, 428
2,911
2, 789
2, 499
2, 439
2,
3,
2,
2,
2,
759
032
875
576
464
1955.
1956.
33. 2
34. 4
21. 6
22. 3
11. 6
11. 9
11.6
2, 331
2, 337
2, 379
2, 337
18. 6
12. 1
4. 6
6. 6
9.9
11.8
1,
1,
1,
1,
720
044
600
942
967
729
429
980
534
1, 621
1, 636
2, 221
2, 963
3, 237
3, 122
i Includes cash receipts from farm marketings, value of farm products consumed directly in farm households, gross rental value of farm dwellings, and Govern,
6 >
ment payments to farmers.
3 Realized gioss farm income less farm production expenses.
Excludes farm wages paid to workers living on farms and any income to farm people from nonfarm
sources, which in 1956 amounted to $1.8 and $6.7 billion, respectively.
a Data prior to 1952 differ from " F a r m proprietors* income" on pages 7 and 8 because of revisions by the Department of Agriculture not yet incorporated into
w
the national Income accounts of the Department of Commerce.
* Dollar estimates in current prices divided by index of prices paid by farmers for items used in family living, on base 1956=100.
NOTE.—Annual data available beginning 1910; quarterly from 1929.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
Series of the U. S. Department of Agriculture, Volumeby the Agricultural Marketing Service. The indi3—Gross and Net Farm Income, published in 1957. vidual studies of commercial family-operated farms
The methods used for the quarterly estimates of by type and location are published annually by the
farm operators' income in terms of seasonally ad- Agricultural Research Service in Farm Costs and
justed annual rates are described in the July 1954 Returns.
issue of Agricultural Economic Research} published
13
CORPORATE PROFITS
Description of series.—The corporate profits series tors for manufacturing corporations are based upon
of the Office of Business Economics, Department of the FTC-SEC Quarterly Financial Report; those for
Commerce, contains profits estimates for past years Federally regulated industries are based upon reports
and recent quarters for all United States corporations to the Federal regulatory agencies; and those for
organized for profit, estimates of the distribution of other industries are based upon nongovernmental
those profits between dividends and retained earn- surveys, and upon miscellaneous sources of varying
ings, and estimates of corporate tax liability (Federal reliability. When the Internal Revenue tabulations
and State corporate income and excess profits taxes). of tax returns for a given year become available, the
The national income concept of profits is used in this estimates for that year are revised to conform to the
series. This concept of profits differs from the con- Internal Revenue tabulations.
The series on "Corporate tax liability" is derived
ventional accounting concept of profits (which is
used in the Internal Revenue Service tabulation of by procedures generally similar to those described
profits and in thefinancialreport series of the Federal for corporate profits.
Relation to other series.—The corporate profits series
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange
Commission) in that dividends received by corpo- is designed primarily to measure the contribution of
rations are deducted from profits (and dividends) to corporate profits to the national income. It is as
obtain unduplicated totals reflecting income orig- consistent with the concepts of the national income
inating in United States corporations; profits are accounts, and with other series which are a part of
calculated inclusive of depletion, which is not con- those accounts, as the basic data permit, and can be
sidered an element of capital consumption in the used in conjunction with the other national income
national income and product accounts; capital gains series (e. g., net interest, proprietors' and rental inand losses are eliminated from profits because they come, compensation of employees, etc.) with condo not measure gains or losses originating from cur- fidence of conceptual comparability when comparing
rent production; and adjustments for international total corporate aggregates.
The corporate profits series is, as it must be, based
flows affecting profits are made.
Statistical procedures.—The annual data publishedupon reports from companies rather than establishin the corporate profits series are, except for the 2 or ments. This results in some noncomparability with
3 most recent years, based upon tabulations by the series based upon reports from establishments.
Internal Revenue Service of unaudited corporate- Furthermore, surveys based upon the establishment
income-tax returns. The data in these tabulations unit of classification are not confined to establishare adjusted to make them comparable, statistically ments of corporations but include establishments of
and conceptually, with other entries in the national other forms of organization as well. The corporate
income accounts. The important conceptual ac- profits series, or any other series based upon comcounting adjustments are suggested by the state- pany reports, cannot safely be assumed to be directly
ment above of differences between the conventional comparable with these establishment series unless
accounting concept of profits and the national in- the reports on the different bases have been reconcome concept. Another important adjustment of ciled. These factors are more important when series
the tabulations is the audit adjustment which makes for specific industries are being compared, however,
allowance for additional profits disclosed by audit- than when the broad aggregates published in Ecoing of the income-tax returns by Internal Revenue. nomic Indicators are compared.
Mutual insurance companies are not considered part
The series on expenditures for new plant and
of the corporate universe for national income pur- equipment (p. 18) and sales and inventories (p. 46)
poses, and profits of these companies are removed are also based primarily upon company reports.
from the tax-return tabulations,
The plant and equipment expenditures and the sales
Since the tax-return tabulations are not available and inventories series differ from the corporate profits
until about 2 years after the close of the year to series in that they cover unincorporated as well as
which they refer, other bases for the estimates for incorporated businesses. These three series cover
the most recent 2 years and for quarters must be closely related economic phenomena and can be used
used. These estimates for current periods are made to supplement one another analytically.
by extrapolating the benchmark estimates, i. e., the
Uses and limitations.—The corporate profits series
latest estimates based upon Internal Revenue tabu- is an important economic indicator, reflecting the
lations of corporation tax returns. The extrapola- state of health of a substantial part of the Nation's
If
Corporate Profits
[Billions of dollars]
Year
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Corporate
tax
liability
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
Dividend
payments
Undistributed
profits
1929
9.6
1.4
8.3
5.8
2.4
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
3.3
-.8
-3.0
. 2
1. 7
. 8
. 5
.4
.5
.7
2.5
-1. 3
-3.4
-.4
1.0
5.5
4. 1
2.6
2. 1
2. 6
-3.0
-5.4
-6.0
-2.4
-1.6
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
3. 1
5.7
6.2
3.3
6.4
1.0
1.4
1. 5
1. 0
1.4
2.2
4.3
4. 7
2.3
5.0
2.9
4. 5
4. 7
3. 2
3.8
1940.
1941
1942
1943-..
1944
9.3
17.0
20. 9
24. 6
23.3
2.8
7. 6
11.4
14. 1
12. 9
6. 5
9.4
9.5
10. 5
10.4
4.0
4. 5
4.3
4.5
4.7
2.4
4. 9
5.2
6.0
5.7
1945...
1946
1947....
1948
1949
19.0
22. 6
29.5
32. 8
26.2
10.7
9. 1
11.3
12. 5
10. 4
8.3
13.4
18.2
20.3
15.8
4.7
5.8
6.5
7.2
7.5
3.6
7.7
11.7
13.0
8.3
1950
1951
1952.
1953
1954
40.0
41. 2
35.9
37.0
33.5
17. 8
22. 5
19. 8
20.3
17. 4
22. 1
18.7
16. 1
16. 7
16.0
9; 2
9. 1
9.0
9.3
9.9
12. 9
9.6
7. 1
7.4
6. 1
1955
1956
42. 5
43.0
21. 5
22. 0
21.0
21.0
11.0
11.9
9.9
9.2
-.7
-. 2
(0
-.9
1.2
i Less than $50 million.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See National Income table (p. 7) for corporate profits before taxes and after
inventory valuation adjustment.
Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
business community. Certain limitations of the which the quarterly series must be based, are inseries require that it be used with caution, however. herently less reliable than annual income statements
(1) As its title indicates, the series measures only because they are affected by seasonal influences that
the profits of corporations. It does not, therefore, are not completely accounted for in company reports; and (b) wide gaps in the financial data availportray fully the profit position of all business.
(2) The total corporate profits series is too gen- able quarterly for some industries, such as trade and
eral to provide any indication of the profit positions services, make the underlying basis of the quarterly
of specific industries. In some situations knowledge estimates weaker than that of the annual estimates,
of the profits experience of specific industries is vital even before the Internal Revenue tabulations become available.
to the analysis of economic conditions.
References.—See above, under National Income.
(3) The quarterly corporate profits estimates are
less reliable than the annual estimates, especially the A complete statement of the methods and the sources
annual estimates for periods more than 2 years prior of data used in preparing these estimates is presented
to the current year. There are two principal rea- in pages 92-97 of the 1954 National Income Supplesons for this: (a) quarterly income statements, upon ment to the Survey of Current Business.
15
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Description of series.—Gross Private Domestic In-of estimating purchases of producers' durable equipvestment is one of the major components of gross ment in greater detail than was possible in other
national product. The series measures gross fixed years. For the years since 1940, except 1947, the
investment and net changes in business inventories. paucity of data has prevented the detailed applicaGross fixed investment (or gross fixed capital forma- tion of the commodity-flow approach, but it has
tion) is defined as all newly produced durable goods been possible to develop "secondary" benchmark
(i. e., those with an average life exceeding 1 year) estimates from data arising out of the 1942-46 and
acquired by their ultimate business users. New 1950-52 production control programs for some inresidental construction purchased by owner-occu- dustries, and, beginning with 1949, from data colpants is also included because homeownership is lected by the Bureau of the Census in its annual
treated as a business in the national accounts. The sample surveys of manufactures. Since 1952, esti"Change in business inventories" series measures mates of purchases of producers' durable equipment
physical changes in business inventories valued at have been made by extrapolating the 1952 secondary
average prices prevailing during the year.
benchmarks on the basis of percent change estiSeparate statistical series are published for "Fixed mates. The extrapolators are developed from the
investment" (which in turn consists of separate series on new plant and equipment expenditures
series for "New construction" and "Producers' (see next section) by adjusting that series primarily
durable equipment") and for "Change in business to cxclude expenditures on new plant and include
inventories." The "New construction" series used expenditures on new farm equipment, but also to
in computing gross private domestic investment is correct for other conceptual differences.
derived from the private construction component
The primary source for estimates of changes in
of the new construction series described below (p. 41) the nonfarm portion of business inventories is
by adding oil- and gas-well drilling.
reported accounting data on the book value of invenA major revision of the "Producers' durable equip- tories at the beginning and end of the period for
ment" series was undertaken in conjunction with the which the estimates are made. Because inventory
preparation of the 1954 National Income Supplement calculation by individual business firms varies
to the Survey of Current Business. The estimates widely in method, numerous adjustments in the
were revised for the entire period since 1929.
reported data are necessary to arrive at an estimate
The quarterly estimates of producers' durable consistent with the basic concept. The principal
equipment and changes in business inventories are adjustment is that of removing the price-change
revised annually to reflect more complete data than element in the reported figures and revaluing invenwere available when the initial estimates were made. tory change in current dollars.
The revisions in the "Changes in business invenRelation to other series.—-The relationship between
tories" series have sometimes been quite sizable, and the "Producers' durable equipment" series and the
have resulted primarily from revisions in the basic "Din-able goods" series in Expenditures for New
book value inventory aggregates.
Plant and Equipment, to which it is most closely
Statistical procedures.—The principal method ofrelated, is discussed in the following section.
estimation used for the "Producers durable equipThe "Change in business inventories" series is
ment" series has been the commodity-flow technique. most closely related to the estimates of "Inventories,"
In brief, this technique consists of (1) estimating the discussed in the section on Sales and Inventories
purchases of durable equipment by business by segre- (p. 46). A basic difference between these series is
gating finished producers' durable goods from total that the series on business inventory change, included
manufacturing output to obtain an estimate of the here, measures changes in inventories over a period
manufacturers' sales value of those goods, (2) trac- of time, whereas the inventories series presented
ing the flow of those goods, (3) measuring their dis- below measures the level of inventories at a given
tributive costs and (4) adding the estimate of those point in time. The series also differ conceptually in
distributive costs to manufacturers' sales value to then- measurement of inventories: the inventories
arrive at an estimate of the costs of those goods to series is based upon data as reported by the reporting
their purchasers.
companies, whereas for the inventory-change series
For the years 1929-39 and for 1947, data available OBE adjusts the reported data to reflect a uniform
from the manufactures and trade censuses made it method of valuation.
possible to carry out the commodity-flow technique
Uses and limitations.—The gross private domestic
16
Gross Private Domestic Investment
[Billions of dollars]
Year
Total
gross
private
domestic
investment
Change in business
inventories
Fixed investment
New construction
Total
Total
Residential
nonfarm
Producers'
durable
equipment
1
Other a
Total
Nonfarm
1929
16. 2
14. 6
8.7
3.6
5. 1
5.8
1. 7
1.8
1930
1931
1932__
1933.
1934
10.3
5. 5
.9
1. 4
2.9
10.
6.
3.
3.
4.
6
8
5
0
0
6.2
4.0
1.9
1.4
1. 7
2. 1
1. 6
. 6
.5
. 6
4. 1
2.4
1. 2
1.0
1. 1
4.5
2.8
1. 6
1. 6
2.3
4
3
6
6
1
-. 1
-1. 6
-2. 6
-1.4
. 2
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
6.3
8.4
11. 7
6.7
9.3
5. 4
7.4
9. 5
7. 6
8.9
2.3
3.3
4.4
4. 0
4.8
1. 0
1. 6
1.9
2.0
2.7
1. 3
1.7
2. 5
2. 0
2. 1
3. 1
4.2
5. 1
3.6
4.2
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
13.2
18. 1
9. 9
5. 6
7. 1
11.0
13. 6
8. 1
6. 4
8.2
5.5
6. 6
3. 7
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.5
1. 7
. 9
.8
2.
3.
2.
1.
1.
5.
6.
4.
4.
5.
1945
1946 1947
1948
1949
10.
27.
29.
41.
32.
4
1
7
2
5
11. 5
21.0
30. 7
37. 0
35. 3
3. 8
10. 3
14.0
17. 9
17.5
1. 1
4.0
6. 3
8. 6
8. 3
2.7
6.3
7.7
9. 3
9.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
51. 2
56. 9
49. 8
50.3
48. 4
43. 9
46. 5
46. 8
50. 1
50.3
22.
23.
23.
25.
27.
1955
1956
60. 6
65. 9
56. 4
61. 4
32. 7
33. 3
7
3
7
8
8
5
1
0
4
9
. 9
1. 0
2. 2
9
. 4
.
2.
1.
-1.
.
4
1
7
0
3
5
9
3
0
4
2. 2
4. 5
1. 8
8
-1.0
1. 9
4.0
.7
6
—. 6
7.7
10. 7
16. 7
19. 1
17.8
-1. 1
6. 1
-1. 0
4. 2
-2.7
-. 6
6. 4
1. 3
3. 0
-1.9
6
0
1
9
5
10. 1
12. 4
12. 6
13. 8
14.3
21.
23.
23.
24.
22.
1
2
1
3
5
7. 4
10. 4
3. 0
.3
-1. 9
6. 4
9. 0
2. 1
.9
-2.4
16. 6
15. 3
16. 1
18. 0
23.7
28. 1
4. 2
4. 6
4.0
5.0
12.
11.
11.
11.
13.
1
Revisions in the " N e w construction" series shown on p. 43 have not yet been incorporated into these accounts.
2
Includes petroleum and natural gas well drilling, which are excluded from " N e w construction" estimates on p. 43.
NOTE—Quarterly data available beginning 1939; annual from 1929.
-1.
-2.
-1.
-1.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
investment series measure an economic factor of
crucial importance in business conditions.
Limitations in the "Fixed investment" series can
be traced to limitations in the data on which they are
based, especially in the data available for current
quarters. The absence of reliable current data on
government purchases of producers' durable equipment constitutes a special problem when the commodity-flow method of estimation is used. The
limitations of the data on manufacturers7 commodity
sales and on new plant and equipment expenditures
affect the current estimates of investment in producers' durable equipment. Nevertheless, the discrepancies between initial quarterly estimates and
the revised estimates based on more complete data
have generally not been great.
The figures on "Change in business inventories,"
although rough estimates to a considerable degree,
are useful indicators of the physical-volume change
in inventories during the period under review. A
serious limitation in the series is inherent in the basic
method of calculation that must be used. The
estimates are calculated as the difference between
large and possibly volatile inventory totals at two
points in time. Even small errors in the estimates
of total inventories can lead to large relative errors
in the estimates of inventory change. Because
comprehensive accounting data on inventories become available only after a lag of several years,
current estimates of inventory change are based
upon less satisfactory data than, are the estimates
for past years.
References.—See above, under National Income.
For a full discussion of the concepts and statistical
methods, see particularly pages 43-45 and 122-138
in the 1954 National Income Supplement.
17
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Description of series.—The series on expenditures and ICC. The group of reporting companies acfor new plant and" equipment, published jointly by count for at least three-fifths of aggregate investment
the Securities and Exchange Commission and the in plant and equipment, although the sample is not
Office of Business Economics, Department of Com- randomly selected. Coverage is quite small in a few
merce, measures the expenditures by all private areas, such as real estate, somefinancialinstitutions,
businesses except agriculture, professions, and institu- and mining, and quite high in railroads, public
tions for plant and types of machinery and equip- utilities, and some manufacturing industries.
The seasonal factors used for adjusting the actual
ment for which the reporting companies maintain
depreciation accounts. Expenditures charged off expenditures data for changes due to seasonal flucas expense during the period in which made are tuations are based on the "ratio to moving average"
excluded. Estimates are made for both actual technique. Adjustments are also made where necesplant and equipment expenditures for recent quarters sary in the estimates of plant and equipment
(and calendar years) and anticipated expenditures for expenditures to correct for biases due to changes
the two succeeding quarters (and calendar year). in the business population which are not reflected
These estimates are based upon information in the data reported by the relatively constant
contained in annual reports of all corporations sample of companies used.
registered with SEC and quarterly reports from a
Relation to other series.—The SEC-OBE series on
group of registered corporations who make approxi- actual plant and equipment expenditures by manmately 85 percent of the capital expenditures by ufacturers utilizes the same definitions of investment
registered corporations; and in annual and quarterly as those of the 1947 Census of Manufactures and
reports by a group of unregistered manufacturing the later annual surveys of manufactures of the
and distribution trade companies to OBE and by Census Bureau. There is a substantial difference
railroads, motor carriers, water carriers, and pipeline between the Census Bureau data on expenditures
companies to the Interstate Commerce Commission. for plant and equipment and the SEC-OBE manThe last major revision in the series was published ufacturing series, however, in that the SEC-OBE
in two parts, the revision for manufacturing indus- series obtains reports on companywide outlays
tries in the December 1951 issue of the Survey of whereas the Census Bureau obtains reports on outCurrent Business and the revision for nonmanufac- lays of establishments. Thus, the Census Bureau's
turing industries in the August 1952 issue. The re- annual series covers only establishments whose
vision established a new set of benchmark data and primary activity is manufacturing, whereas the
introduced improvements in the estimating pro- SEC-OBE quarterly and annual series cover all
cedures being used. For example, information con- activities, manufacturing as well as nonmanufactained in the annual Form 10-K reports to SEC was turing, of companies whose primary activity is
used for the first time and adjustments were made manufacturing and excludes manufacturing activities
for biases arising out of changes in the business of companies whose primary activity is nonmanupopulation.
facturing.
Because of the method of estimating used (the
The SEC-OBE-ICC series covering all industries
extrapolation of benchmark estimates on the basis differs somewhat in concept from the "Producers'
of less than complete current data), lesser revisions durable equipment" and "New construction" comin the estimates of actual expenditures for plant and ponents of gross private domestic investment (see
equipment for any given quarter or year are made p. 16). The SEOOBE-ICC series is confined to
to take into account new data as they become nonagricultural industries, and excludes expenditures
available.
of institutions and professional persons and plant and
Statistical procedures.—The benchmarks for the equipment outlays charged off as expenses during the
estimates were developed by applying weights de- period of the expenditure; it is based on a survey
rived from reports to the Internal Revenue Service requesting information on expenditures for capital
for the tax year 1948 to sample expenditure figures goods for which depreciation accounts are mainfor the benchmark period (i. e., 1948). The estima- tained. The current estimates of investment in
tion of year-to-year and quarter-to-quarter move- producers' durable equipment are for the most part
ments in these expenditures are made by extrapolat- derived indirectly by extrapolating benchmarks on
ing the benchmark estimates on the basis of the the basis of percent-change estimates developed from
annual and quarterly reports received by SEC, OBE, the equipment-expenditures portion of the SEC18
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
.*
[Billions of dollars]
Manufacturing
Year
1939
Total 1
5. 51
Transportation
Mining
Railroads
Other
Public
utilities
Commercial and
other 2
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
1. 94
0. 76
1. 19
0. 33
0. 28
0. 36
0. 52
2. 08
3.
6.
8.
9.
7.
98
79
70
13
15
1.
3.
3.
3.
2.
59
11
41
48
59
2. 39
3. 68
5. 30
5. 65
4.56
.38
. 43
. 69
.88
.79
.55
.58
.89
1. 32
1. 35
.57
.92
1. 30
1. 28
. 89
.50
. 79
1. 54
2. 54
3. 12
2.
5.
7.
6.
5.
14
17
61
65
09
4.
5.
6.
6.
5.
36
68
02
26
95
.71
.93
.98
.99
.98
1. 11
1. 47
1. 40
1. 31
.85
1. 21
1. 49
1. 50
1. 56
1.51
3.
3.
3.
4.
4.
31
66
89
55
22
6. 78
7.24
7.09
8. 00
8. 23
6. 00
7.33
.96
1. 24
.92
1. 23
1. 60
1. 71
4.31
4.90
9.47
11. 05
Total
1945
1946
1947
1948 .
1949 -
8.69
14. 85
20. 61
22. 06
19. 28
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
20.
25.
26.
28.
26.
60
64
49
32
83
7. 49
10. 85
11. 63
11.91
11. 04
3.
5.
5.
5.
5.
1955
1956
28. 70
35. 08
11. 44
14. 95
5.44
7.62
70
33
49
90
98
* Excludes agriculture.
* Includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree precisely with the plant and equipment expenditures Included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of
Commerce. The main difference lies in the inclusion in the gross national product of investment by farmers, professionals, and institutions, and of certain outlays
charged to current expense.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Data on expenditures for new plant and equipment are not available for the years prior to 1939 and for the years 1940-44.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce.
OBE-ICC series; and'the estimates of new private
construction are developed from both direct and
indirect sources.
The SEOOBE series on manufacturers' expenditures for new plant and equipment is directly comparable in classification and scope with the OBECensus series on manufacturers' sales, new orders,
and inventories (see p. 46). It has a different scope
from the Federal Trade Commission-Securities and
Exchange Commission financial reports series in
manufacturing, mainly in that the FTC-SEC estimates of balance-sheet and income-statement items
•cover only corporations and a different degree of
consolidation is involved.
Uses and limitations.—This series is one of the
very few economic series in which estimates of
anticipated events as well as historical events are
made. The series measures economic phenomena
of great importance in the analysis of business conditions. The predictive reliability of estimates of
anticipations is difficult to ascertain. An estimate
of anticipated expenditures for a period can be different from actual expenditures for the same period
either because the estimating procedures and statistical techniques employed are faulty or because the
anticipated expenditures were—for any number of
reasons—not made in fact. Except in a few periods
in the past when marked differences between estimates of anticipated expenditures and actual expenditures for the same period have occurred as a
95975—57
result of unanticipated developments, such as the
outbreak of Korean hostilities, the anticipatory survey has proved a reliable indicator of the overall
trend of capital expenditures. The survey has
generally reflected the cyclical turning points in the
postwar period, although its predictive reliability has
yet to be tested during a major cycle.
There are two principal deficiencies in the statistical procedures employed in making the estimates of
expenditures for new plant and equipment. One of
these, mentioned above, is the inadequacy of the
sample coverage for some industries. Within the
past two years, however, the sample coverage in
some of these industries—notably, the trade area
and transportation other than rail and air—has been
strengthened considerably. The second deficiency
is that in several areas the benchmark data are either
out of date or of limited reliability.
References.—These estimates are published quarterly in Department of Commerce and Securities and
Exchange Commission press releases and in the
Survey of Current Business. Annual data in greater
industry detail and quarterly data for the preceding
four years are shown in Business Statistics, the
biennial statistical supplement to the Survey of
Current Business. For a fuller description of the
methods employed in making the estimates and of the
latest revisions in the series, see the December 1951
and August 1952 issues of the Survey of Current
Business.
19
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Included as unemployed are persons who did not
work at all during the survey week and were looking
Description of series.—Each month, the Bureau of for work. Also included as unemployed are those
the Census of the Department of Commerce pub- who did not work at all during the survey week and
lishes estimates of the labor force and of total em- (a) were waiting to be called back to a job from
ployment and unemployment. In addition to the which they had been laid off; or (6) were waiting to
overall figures, detail is presented on the character- report to a new wage or salary job scheduled to start
istics of employed and unemployed persons, such as within the following 30 days (and were not in school
age, sex, color, marital status, and veteran status. during the survey week); or (c) would have been
Employed persons are further subdivided into those looking for work except that they were temporarily
employed in agriculture and in nonagricultural ill or believed no work was available in their line
pursuits, by class-of-worker (wage and salary of work or in the community. Prior to 1957, part of
workers, self-employed, etc.), by broad occupation group (a) above (those whose layoffs were for definite
groups, by hours worked during the survey week periods of less than 30 days) were classified as
and by reasons for part-time work. Duration of employed, "with a job but not at work," rather than
unemployment is shown for the unemployed. Al- as unemployed, as were all of the persons in group (6)
though most of the statistics are presented for the above (waiting to start new jobs within 30 days).
United States as a whole, an increasing amount of
The sum of the employed and the unemployed
material is being published for major geographic constitutes the civilian labor force. All other civilregions.
ians 14 years of age and over are classified as "not
The estimates are obtained by means of a sample in the labor force" (housewives, students, retired or
survey of households, representing all persons in the disabled persons, those doing less than 15 hours of
continental United States except those living in unpaid family work, and the voluntarily idle).
institutions (such as prisons or homes for the aged).
The sample survey was started in March 1940.
On the basis of responses to the Census Bureau Prior to that date there was no direct enumeration
interviewers, all persons 14 years and over in the of the labor force. The estimates shown for 1939
sample households are classified as employed, and earlier years were prepared by the Bureau of
unemployed, or not in the labor force for the calendar Labor Statistics, using information such as the 1930
week ending nearest the 15th of the month. Prior and 1940 Censuses of Population, and employment
to July 1955, the reference week was the calendar trends from BLS and Department of Agriculture
week containing the 8th of the month; this change series for intervening years. The techniques used
was made to improve comparability with other in preparing the. estimates for the earlier years are
series.
described in "Labor Force, Employment, and UnCounted as employed are all persons who, during employment, 1929-39: Estimating Methods," which
the survey week, were either (a) "At work"— those appeared in the July 1948 issue of the Labor Departwho did any work for pay or profit, or those who ment's Monthly Labor Review.
worked without pay for 15 hours or more on a family
Since the survey was instituted in 1940, there have
farm or business; or (b) "With a job but not at been a number of revisions in the series. In Nowork"—those who did not work and were not vember 1943 an improved sample design was introlooking for work but had a job or business from duced and the estimates were revised back to 1940
which they were temporarily absent because of using the 1940 Census of Population figures as a
vacation, illness, industrial dispute, bad weather, or benchmark for that date. Starting in July 1945, a
because they were taking time off for various other modified set of questions was used which resulted in
reasons. Prior to 1957, this group also included a more nearly complete count of employed persons;
persons on layoff who had definite instructions to the estimates were again revised back to 1940 to
return to work within 30 days of the date of layoff take account of the improvement in interviewing
(now classified as unemployed) and those waiting procedure.
to start new wage and salary jobs within 30 days
In January 1954 the sample was spread from 68
(now classified either as unemployed or, if currently sample areas to 230 sample areas (although retaining
in school, as not in the labor force).
the overall size of about 21,000 interviewed liouse-
Labor Force
20
Status of the Labor Force
Civilian employment 2
Total
labor
force (including
Armed
Forces) 1
Year
Civilian
labor
force
Total
Agricultural
Unemployment
Nonagricultural
Number
Insured unemployment
Percent
of
civilian
labor
force
State programs as
All propercent of
grams 3
covered
(thousands
of persons) employment 4
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over 5
1929
49, 440
49, 180
47, 630
10, 450
37, 180
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
50, 080
50, 680
51, 250
51,840
52, 490
49,
50,
51,
51,
52,
820
420
000
590
230
45,
42,
38,
38,
40,
480
400
940
760
890
10,
10,
10,
10,
9,
340
290
170
090
900
35,
32,
28,
28,
30,
140
110
770
670
990
4,
8,
12,
12,
11,
340
020
060
830
340
8.
15.
23.
24.
21.
53,
53,
54,
54,
55,
140
740
320
950
600
52,
53,
54,
54,
55,
870
440
000
610
230
42,
44,
46,
44,
45,
260
410
300
220
750
10,
10,
9,
9,
9,
110
000
820
690
610
32,
34,
36,
34,
36,
150
410
480
530
140
10,
9,
7,
10,
9,
610
030
700
390
480
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
56,
57,
60,
64,
66,
180
530
380
560
040
55,
55,
56,
55,
54,
640
910
410
540
630
47,
50,
53,
54,
53,
520
350
750
470
960
9,
9,
9,
9,
8,
540
100
250
080
950
37,
41,
44,
45,
45,
980
250
500
390
010
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
65,
60,
61,
62,
63,
290
970
758
898
721
53,
57,
60,
61,
62,
860
520
168
442
105
52,
55,
58,
59,
58,
820
250
027
378
710
8,
8,
8,
7,
8,
580
320
266
973
026
44,
46,
49,
51,
50,
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
64,
65,
66,
67,
67,
749
982
560
362
818
63, 099
62, 884
62, 966
63,815
64, 468
59,
61,
61,
62,
61,
957
005
293
213
238
7,
7,
6,
6,
, 6,
507
054
805
562
504
52,
53,
54,
55,
54,
1955
1956
68, 896
70, 387
65, 847
67, 530
63, 193
64, 979
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
^
6, 730
6, 585
(6)
(6)
7
9
6
9
7
(66)
()
(66)
()
(6)
(6)
(66)
(6)
()
(6)
20. 1
16. 9
14. 3
19.0
17. 2
(6)
(66)
()
(66)
()
(6fl)
()
(66)
()
(6)
8, 120
5, 560
2, 660
1,070
670
14.
9.
4.
1.
1.
6
9
7
9
2
1,330
841
661
149
111
5. 6
3.0
2. 2
.5
. 4
240
930
761
405
684
1,040
2, 270
2, 142
2, 064
3, 395
1.
3.
3.
3.
5.
9
9
6
4
5
714
2, 803
1, 803
1,461
2, 470
2. 1
4. 3
3. 1
3.0
6. 2
450
951
488
651
734
3,
1,
1,
1,
3,
142
879
673
602
230
5.0
3.0
2. 7
2. 5
5. 0
1,599
996
1, 064
1,058
2, 039
4. 6
2.8
2. 9
2.8
5. 2
2, 654
2, 551
4. 0
3. 8
1,388
1,310
3. 4
3.2
56, 464
58, 394
1,550
3. 2
1 Data for 1940-52 revised to Include about 150,000 members of the Armed Forces who were outside the continental United States in 1940 and therefore were not
enumerated in the 1940 ccnsus and wore excluded from 1940-52 estimates.
2 Includes part-time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacations, illness, bad weather, temporary layoff, and industrial disputes.
3 Weekly averages of unemployed workers covered by unemployment insurance programs who have completed at least 1 week of unemployment.
Includes the
State, veteran, and railroad retirement programs and, beginning January 1955, the Federal employee program; also includes Servicemen's Readjustment Act Benefits
(World War II) for the period September 1944-August 1951.
* State unemployment insurance programs during the period shown excluded from coverage agricultural workers, government employees (except Federal employees, included since January 1955), domestic servants, workers in nonprofit organizations, unpaid family workers, the self-employed, and (in most States) workers in
very small firms.
s Labor forcc data for 1953 revised; 1946-53 data based on 68-area sample; beginning in 1954. based on 230-area sample; beginning in May 1956, based on 330-area
sample. Earlier data based on smaller sample are revised (1940-45); labor force data prior to 1940 are based on estimates from other sources rather than direct enumeration.
6 Not available.
t NOTE.—Monthly labor force data available beginning March 1940, based on the week containing the 8th of the month; starting July 1955, data are for week contaming the 12th of the month. Monthly and weekly insured unemployment data available beginning July 1945.
Sources: Department of Commerce (labor force, 1940-56) and Department of Labor (labor force, 1929-39, and insured unemployment).
holds) in the interest of improving the reliabilit}" of
the estimates. The estimates for 1953, which were
deficient in certain respects, were revised to achieve
greater comparability with those from the new
sample. Estimates prior to 1953 are not exactly
comparable with those from the expanded sample,
although for most major items the series can be
regarded as reasonablv consistent.
In May 1956, the sample was expanded from 230
to 330 sample areas and from 21,000 to 35,000 interviewed households, to improve further the reliability
of the statistics and to provide a basis for more
detailed data for the Nation as a whole and for geographic regions. Full comparisons of the results from
the 230- and 330-area samples—available for both
April and May of 1956—showed only small differ21
ences either in major categories or in detailed groups.
For most purposes, therefore, the data from the
expanded sample since May 1956 can be used as a
continuous series with earlier statistics.
Starting in January 1957, certain limited changes
were made in the definitions of employment and unemployment, following a comprehensive interagency
review of concepts in this field. The changes involved primarily a transfer of two small groups from
the employed to the unemployed classification, as
described in the definitions given above. Statistics
for major categories on both the old and new bases
are being published by the Bureau of the Census
throughout 1957 to facilitate comparisons with the
past.
Statistical procedures.—Starting in 1954, a new
method of preparing estimates was introduced. This
method involves the preparation of two intermediate
estimates for a given item each month: (1) an estimate obtained by applying to the final estimate for
the preceding month an estimate of month-to-month
change based on those parts of the sample common
to the 2 months (roughly 75 percent of the sample
units) and (2) an estimate based on the data for the
current month only, inflated to independent estimates of the population by age, sex, and color (previously the sole estimation procedure used). The
final estimate is then obtained from a weighted average of the intermediate estimates (1) and (2), achieving a substantial reduction in sampling variability
for most items.
The panel of respondents is rotated. A single
household is interviewed for four consecutive months,
dropped for eight months, and picked up again for
the next four months. Thus roughly three-fourths
of the sample is identical from one month to the next,
and one-fourth is added; and in any given month
about one-half the sample is identical with that interviewed in the same month a year earlier.
Relation to other series.—The Census Bureau's
estimates of employment, obtained from a sample
of households, differ in a number of respects from
estimates of employment prepared from reports of
employing establishments and based on payroll
records, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics current nonagricultural employment series and the
Department of Agriculture estimates of farm employment. Because of these differences and variability in sampling and response, changes in the
various series may not always be consistent. The
Census estimates provide information on the work
status of the population: persons employed at more
than one job, either because they hold more than one
job concurrently or because they changed jobs dur22
ing the survey week, are counted only once by the
Census and are classified according to the job at
which they work the greatest number of hours during
the week. Estimates based on reports from business
establishments and farms, on the other hand, count
persons who work for more than one establishment as
many times as the number of different payrolls on
which their names appear. The Census estimates
relate to all types of workers, including domestic
service workers, unpaid family workers (working 15
hours or more during the week) and self-employed
persons, groups which are excluded from nonagricultural employment series based on establishment reports. On the other hand, the Census excludes
workers less than 14 years of age whereas the payrollbased series have no age exclusions. An additional
difference arises from the fact that some persons with
a job but not at work are likely to be included with
the employed in the Census estimates, whereas only
part of this group (those receiving pay while away
from work) are included in the BLS estimates.
For a number of reasons, the unemployment
estimates of the Bureau of the Census are not
directly comparable with statistics derived from
unemployment insurance operations. In the first
place, some unemployed persons are not eligible for
unemployment insurance, particularly young persons
looking for their first jobs, domestic servants, most
former State and local government workers, agricultural workers, and persons who lost their jobs in
firms too small to be covered by the various State
unemployment insurance laws. Unemployed persons who have already received all of the benefits to
which they are currently entitled are not included
in the unemployment insurance claims figures. Also,
the qualifications for drawing unemployment insurance differ from the definition of unemployment used
by the Census Bureau. For example, some persons
with a job but not at work and persons working only
a few hours during the week are eligible for unemployment insurance, but are classified by the Census
Bureau as employed. Furthermore, some persons
may be reported to the Census Bureau as not looking
for work even though they may be registered at public employment offices, consider themselves available
for jobs and may be eligible for unemployment insurance.
Uses and limitations.—One of the chief advantages
of the Census labor force, employment and unemployment estimates is that they provide the only
comprehensive figures covering the employment
status of the whole population. The data are
collected monthly and published promptly. The
estimates of unemployment, in particular, are used
as a current indicator of the general health of the
economy.
Another advantage of the household enumeration
method of obtaining labor foree information is the
possibility of relating work status to other personal
and family characteristics. Classifications are made
not only by broad occupation and industry groups,
but also by sex, age, and color, by marital status
and number of children. For example, changes in
the employment of married women, and of married
women with small children, can be studied. By
asking supplementary questions from time to time
other information concerning the family can be
similarly estimated, such as family incomes and the
amount of migration during the course of a year.
All these analyses throw light on the changing size
and composition of the labor force.
It should be noted that in the classification used,
anyone who did any work for pay during the survey
week (or did 15 or more hours of unpaid work in a
family enterprise) is counted as employed. Also
counted as employed are those who did not work nor
look for work but who had definite jobs from which
.they were temporarily absent. (The numbers in
these groups are shown separately in Census releases.)
Thus the survey indicates roughly the total demand
for jobs: the number of persons who have jobs (the
employed) and the number seeking jobs (the unemployed). To understand current trends, the summary figures need to be supplemented by the detailed data. The information provided regularly on
hours worked shows the number of full-time and
part-time employed. Starting in May 1955, information is also provided monthly on the extent of
voluntary and involuntary part-time employment,
and the amount of underemployment arising from
economic causes; these data were available only
quarterly or less frequently prior to that date.
Monthly data on changes in the duration of unemployment add meaning to the total count of unemployment.
Since the estimates are prepared from a relatively
small sample, the user should not attach significance
to very small changes. Estimates of the range of
sampling variability in the data are regularly published and more detailed information on this subject
is being compiled for the guidance of the users.
The relative sampling error for the 330-area sample
is estimated at about 0.4 to 0.5 percent for summary
estimates of the civilian labor force, total employment, and nonagricultural employment; and roughly
3 to 3.5 percent for agricultural employment and
total unemployment.
The user should also keep in mind that the infor-
mation is collected by personal interview, usually
with the housewife. She may not, in some cases,
have exact knowledge for all members of the household. For this reason, as well as because of the
relatively small size of the sample, only broad occupational and industry groupings of the data are
published. Finally, the measurement of unemployment is in some cases difficult, since it depends in
part on the attitude of the person interviewed. The
classification of a person as unemployed has been
made as objective as possible, by using the criterion
of "looking for work/' but no method has been as yet
developed which will insure consistent reporting of
activity month after month. Some marginal (usually
very small) groups may be reported as unemployed
in some circumstances whereas they would be reported as not in the labor force in others. Most of
these problems of measurement affect persons whose
attachment to the labor force is casual or intermittent, especially married women and youths still
in school looking for part-time jobs.
References.—The regular monthly estimates are
published by the Bureau of the Census in the
Monthly Report on the Labor Force (Cm-rent Populattion Reports, Series P-57), which includes also
descriptions of the data and an indication of the
reliability of the estimates. A further description
of the new estimating method may be found in the
Bureau of the Census Current Population Reports,
Series P-23, No. 2, July 30, 1954; and of the expansion of the sample to 330 areas in Series P-23, No. 3,
July 15, 1956. Annual summaries and supplementary information on annual work experience,
income, migration, etc., are published in special
reports (Current Population Reports, Series P-60,
income; Series P-50, labor force characteristics;
Series P-20, population characteristics).
Insured Unemployment
Description of series.—Weekly data on claims for
benefits under employment security programs, obtained by the Bureau of Employment Security,
Department of Labor, as a byproduct of operations,
represent a measure of unemployment among workers
covered by the programs. In addition to the State
employment security programs, the volume of insured unemployment for all programs includes
"Korea veterans" filing under the Veterans' Readjustment Assistance Act of 1952 (as it did after
World War II with respect to veterans eligible for
benefits under the Servicemen's Readjustment Act
of 1944) and insured unemployment under the
program administered by the Railroad Retirement
23
Board. Since January 1955, the program for Federal detail for labor market areas as well as for States.
employees has been included in the "all programs" In using these figures as economic indicators, however, certain inherent limitations must be kept in
figure.
mind.
Insured unemployment represents the number of
The limitations of the series, as well as their
covered workers totally or partially unemployed
during a given week for which they have filed unem- unique advantages, stem from the fact that they are
ployment insurance claims. Weekly insured unem- byproducts of administrative records. Although
ployment figures are available for each State for the coverage of the Federal and State unemployment
State, Federal employee, and veteran programs, and insurance programs has expanded until it now
nationally for the Railroad Retirement Board pro- includes about 8Q percent of all wage and salary
gram. Monthly averages are also provided, by workers in nonagricultural industries, certain groups
State, for the State programs and Federal employee of workers are excluded—namely, self-employed
program combined. In addition, the combined figure persons; imp aid family workers; new entrants into
of insured unemployment under State programs, the the labor market; and persons employed in specific
Federal employee program, and the veteran program industries, such as agriculture, domestic service,
is published for the week ending nearest the 15th of nonprofit organizations, and most State and local
each month for 145 major labor market areas.
governments. (Federal Government workers were
A series on initial claims—notices of the beginning also excluded until 1955.) Also, within the "covof a period of unemployment for which benefits ered" industries, employees of firms below a specified
may be claimed—is also available on a weekly basis size are excluded in many States.
for each State. This series provides a measure of
In addition to the groups of workers excluded from
the volume of new unemployment among workers the unemployment insurance programs, some groups
covered by the State, Federal employee, and vet- of covered workers may not be included in the data
eran programs. Data on initial claims are not on insured unemployment because they are not
added to the insured unemployment count, however, eligible for benefits. These groups include unemsince such claims do not certify to completed weeks ployed workers whose previous jobs were in covered
of unemployment.
industries but who did not earn sufficient wage credits
Statistical procedures.—The insured unemploymentor were not employed the required length of time;
figures are complete counts of completed weeks of unemployed covered workers who are disqualified for
unemployment for which benefits are claimed under various reasons, such as voluntary quitting without
the various programs. The BES sums the data good cause, discharge for misconduct, refusal of suitreported by the State employment security agencies able work, or temporary illness; persons who are
and the Railroad Retirement Board to get national eligible to receive benefits but for one reason or antotals weekly. Since the claims figures reported by other do not apply; and finally, workers who have
the States are dated by the weeks in which the exhausted their benefit rights. In a period when
claims were filed rather than by the weeks in which unemplo}^ment is substantial and of long duration,
the unemployment occurred, BES adjusts both the the volume of exhaustions may have an important
individual State and the National figures to refer to bearing on the magnitude of the insured unemploythe actual periods of unemployment. For States ment levels.
paying claims on a calendar-week basis this is done
These limitations vary over time as well as between
by dating the claims for the preceding week; for States. During the years since 1939, exclusions on
those on a "flexible" week, thefiguresfor the current account of "size-of-firm" provisions have declined.
and preceding weeks are averaged.
Originally, State unemployment insurance programs
Relation to other series.—For a comparison with theexcluded workers in firms with fewer than eight
Current Population Survey, see above, under Labor employees. In January 1956, amendments to the
Force (p. 22).
Social Security Act resulted in coverage of workers
Uses and limitations.—The BES series are derivedin firms employing four or more. In addition,
from administrative records and provide complete changes in many State laws during these 3^ears have
counts of claims-taking transactions rapidly, on a resulted in the coverage of workers infirmsemploying
weekly basis. The insured unemployment figures fewer than four. At the beginning of 1956, fifteen
serve two purposes as economic indicators. First, States, Alaska and Hawaii had "size-of-firm" prosince they are available weekly they provide the visions of one or more.
most up-to-date information on current trends in
Weekly data are subject to some variation from
unemployment. Second, they provide geographic week to week as holidays call for a rescheduling of
24
the claimant's appearance at the local office.
Monthly data are presented as "average weekly
volume of insured unemployment" and are not
significantly affected by holiday weeks. The monthly
data, however, are influenced to some extent by
administrative factors. Forty-two States and the
District of Columbia operate on an "individual
benefit year" basis. In such States a worker who
previously had insufficient wage credits may become
eligible for benefits when the earnings of a new
quarter become a part of his base period. This
administrative factor exerts an upward influence
on insured unemployment during the first month of
each quarter in most States. Similarly, six States
which operate on a "uniform benefit 3rear" usually
show an administrative rise in insured unemployment
at the beginning of the new benefit year.
References.—The basic release of the weekly data
is the BES Unemployment Insurance Claims, which
contains initial claims as well as insured unemployment for the State, Federal employee and veteran
programs by States, and for the Railroad Retirement
Board program nationally. Weekly figures and
monthly averages are also reprinted in the BES
monthly publication, The Labor Market and Employment Security. Weekly data back to July 1945 are
available upon request to the BES. A technical
note, "Source, Nature, and Limitations of Insured
Unemployment Statistics," appears in the April
1954 issue of The Labor Market and Employment
Security.
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Description of series.—Current monthly series on
employment in nonagricultural establishment, with
related information on hours and earnings (see
below), are prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment estimates are published for
about 230 separate industry groups and subgroups
as well as 8 major industry divisions (manufacturing, mining, trade, etc.). Estimates of women
employed in manufacturing industries are available
quarterly.
Employment figures represent the total number
of persons employed in nonagricultural establishments in the continental United States during a
specified payroll period which (for all industries
except Government) is that ending nearest the 15th
of the month. Employed persons include all those
who worked during or received pay for any part of
the payroll period, including part-time as well as
full-time, temporary as well as permanent, employees. Workers on an establishment's payroll who
are on paid sick leave, paid holiday or paid vacation,
or who work a part of a specified pay period and are
unemployed or on strike during the other part are
considered employed. Persons on the payroll of
more than one establishment during the pay period
are counted each time reported. On the other hand,
persons are not considered employed who are laid
off, on leave without pay, or on strike for the entire
pay period. Proprietors, the self-emplo3red and
unpaid family workers, and domestic workers in
households are not included. Government employment statistics refer to civilian employees only, but
include employees of State and local governments as
well as Federal.
Information on emplojonent, hours and earnings
is collected each month from a sample of establishments under cooperative arrangements with State
agencies (primarily State employment security
agencies). Tlie cooperating State agencies mail
questionnaires to the reporting establishments and
edit them when returned, before passing the information on to the BLS. To eliminate duplicate
reporting, the same establishment reports are used
for preparing State, area, and national estimates.
Durable goods manufacturing industries include:
ordnance and accessories (except Governmentoperated establishments), lumber and wood products, furniture and fixtures, stone, cla}r and glass
products, primary metal industries, fabricated metal
products, machinery, transportation equipment, instruments and miscellaneous manufacturing industries. All other manufacturing industries are included in the nondurable manufacturing estimates.
Statistical procedures.—Current estimates depend
on monthly reports from a sample of employers.
The sample of about 155,000 establishments is designed to obtain reports from most if not all the large
establishments in each industry but the proportion
of total employment covered varies considerably
from industry to industry. It is high (65 percent)
in manufacturing, for example, and much lower in
wholesale and retail trade (18 percent) and service
industries.
In order to compute total employment from the
sample reports, month-to-month changes in the
sample establishments are applied to a total employment figure (benchmark) separately for each industry. The benchmark figures are obtained from
25
sources which, singly or in combination, insure units considered parts of an establishment, and in
either a complete count of employment for the the industrial classification of establishments.
More serious differences are found between the
specified benchmark period, or an estimate of reasonBLS
establishment-based series and those based on
able accuracy. This method takes advantage of
benchmark data which are byproducts of other reports from companies, such asfinancialreports on
profits, because the industry totals that result when
governmental functions.
Since 1939 the basic sources of benchmark infor- a single industry classification is assigned to an entire
mation have been periodic tabulations of employ- company differ substantially from those in which
ment data by industry compiled by State agencies each establishment of the company has been assigned
from reports of establishments covered under State to the industry of its principal activity. (See Corunemployment insurance laws. Employment in porate Profits, above, p. 14.)
Uses and limitations.—Current employment statissmall-size establishments exempt from State unemployment insurance laws is based on data obtained tics are widely used as a timely indicator of changes
from the United States Bureau of Old-Age and in economic activity.in various sectors of the econSurvivors Insurance. For industries not covered by omy. Comparable information for a large number
either of the two programs, benchmarks are compiled of detailed industries is provided within a few weeks.
from other sources: for example, for interstate rail- Furthermore, because of the promptness with which
roads, from information reported to the Interstate basic information is supplied in considerable industry
Commerce Commission; for State and local govern- detail, the BLS employment estimates are frequently
ment, from data reported to the Bureau of th9 incorporated in other Federal statistical series, parCensus; for the Federal Government, from data ticularly in making current estimates of production,
compiled by the Civil Service Commission. Estab- productivity, and national income.
lishments are classified into the same industrial
The publication of comparable State and local
groupings for benchmark purposes as for monthly area estimates by the cooperating State agencies
reporting.
using the same concepts and methods provides a
The most recent benchmark adjustment was to means whereby business trends can be followed for
data for the first quarter of 1956 (published in June all States and the District of Columbia and for about
1957). These revisions were carried back to 1955 125 of the large metropolitan areas.
where appropriate.
The national estimates are not all of uniform qualThe seasonally adjusted estimates shown in current ity, however. In general, those for manufacturing
issues of Economic Indicators were introduced by the industries are most reliable. Since "cutoff" samBLS in 1954, with seasonally adjusted and non- pling rather than a probability design has been used,
adjusted indexes of employment. The seasonally it is not possible to calculate the sampling variability
adjusted estimates and indexes are based on monthly of monthly estimates. Experience with the program
factors developed by the BLS, using the Federal has shown that the monthly employment data in
Reserve Board method.
some industries tend to have an increasing bias for
Relation to other series.—For a comparison with thethe successive months between two benchmarks.
Current Population Survey, see above (p. 22).
Although this error cannot be adjusted precisely on
In addition to total employment in each industry, a current basis, average adjustment is made through
BLS also prepares estimates of production-worker the use of bias adjustment factors before publication.
employment for mining and manufacturing indus- Appropriate changes in employment levels are also
tries. These estimates are exactly comparable with made, when necessary, at the next revision to new
the average hours and earning series (see below) benchmarks. Revisions to 1956 benchmarks showed
which are prepared from information reported on the adjustments of 0.5 of 1 percent for the nonagriculsame questionnaires as the employment figures.
tural total; of 0.1 percent for manufacturing; and
In general, BLS employment estimates are com- of 4.3 percent for contract construction, where the
parable with other data collected from establish- greatest relative correction was needed.
ments, such as employment, production, and similar
References.—The basic monthly release for the emdata obtained by the Census Bureau in the manu- ployment, hours, and earnings series is the BLS
facturing censuses and annual surveys. Some dif- Employment and Earnings, which contains national,
ferences will be found, however, especially for State and area estimates. The national employindividual industries, caused -chiefly by differences in ment, hours and earnings series for 13 months are
definitions of the industries covered, in the business also reprinted in the Monthly Labor Review. Explan26
Nonagricultural Employment
[Thousands of wage and salary workers
Manufacturing
Year
Total
Total
1929
31, 041
10, 534
Wholesale
and retail
trade
Government
(Federal,
State,
local)
Other
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
(2)
(2)
1, 078
1, 497
6, 401
3, 066
8,465
(a)
(22)
(2)
(2)
1, 000
864
722
735
874
1, 372
1, 214
970
809
862
6, 064
5, 531
4, 907
4,999
5, 552
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
149
264
225
167
298
8,
7,
6,
6,
6,
(22)
(2)
()
(2)
888
937
1, 006
882
845
1,
1,
1,
1,
912
145
112
055
150
5,
6,
6,
6,
6,
692
076
543
453
612
3,
3,
3,
3,
3,
477
662
749
876
995
6, 916
7, 329
7, 702
7, 383
7,632
1930
1931
1932
1933.
1934
29,
26,
23,
23,
25,
143
383
377
466
699
9,
8,
6,
7,
8,
401
021
797
258
346
(2)
(22)
(2)
(2)
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939_
26, 792
28, 802
30, 718
28, 902
30,311
8,
9,
10,
9,
10,
907
653
606
253
078
(22)
(2)
(2)
1940
1941
1942
1943__
1944
32,
36,
39,
42,
41,
058
220
779
106
534
10,
12,
15,
17,
17,
780
974
051
381
111
1945
1946
1947„_
1948
1949
40,
41,
43,
44,
43,
037
287
462
448
315
15,
14,
15,
15,
14,
302
461
290
321
178
1950
1951
1952__
1953
1954
44,
47,
48,
49,
48,
738
347
303
681
431
14,
16,
16,
17,
15,
967
104
334
238
995
1955
1956
50, 056
51, 878
16, 563
16, 905
Mining
Contract
construction
()
()
4, 683
5,
6,
8,
11,
10,
337
945
804
077
858
9, 079
7, 739
8, 372
8,312
7, 473
8,
9,
9,
10,
9,
085
080
340
105
122
9, 549
9, 825
()
5, 394
157
489
756
498
767
443
028
247
304
253
916
947
983
917
883
1,294
1, 790
2, 170
1, 567
1, 094
6,
7,
7,
7,
7,
940
416
333
189
260
4,
4,
5,
6,
6,
202
660
483
080
043
7,
8,
8,
8,
9,
926
433
759
973
141
6, 222
6, 722
6, 918
7,010
6, 705
826
852
943
982
918
1,
1,
1,
2,
2,
132
661
982
169
165
7, 522
8, 602
9, 196
9, 519
9,513
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
944
595
474
650
856
9,
10,
10,
10,
10,
311
116
577
807
686
6,
7,
6,
7,
6,
882
024
994
133
873
889
916
885
852
777
2,
2,
2,
2,
2,
333
603
634
622
593
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
026
389
609
645
751
10,
11,
11,
11,
11,
878
322
563
797
795
7, 014
7, 080
777
816
2, 759
2, 993
5,
6,
6,
6,
6,
9,
10,
10,
10,
10,
645
012
281
527
520
10, 846
11, 292
6, 914
7, 178
12,197
12, 694
i Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, unpaid family workers, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce
(p. 21) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at
work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing
establishments.
3 Not available.
NOTE.—Monthly data available beginning January 1039; annual from 1919.
Source: Department of Labor.
atory notes and annual averages for the past 6 years
are contained in an Annual Supplement published in
the Spring of each year. More detailed technical
notes on "Measurement of Industrial Employment"
and "Hours and Earnings in Nonagricultural Establishments" appear in Techniques of Preparing
Major BLS Statistical Series (BLS Bulletin 1168),
95975—57
5
December 1954. Continuous data for the entire
history of a series are provided by the BLS, on request. Also available is a Guide to Employment
Statistics of BLS, which lists all series for which
employment, hours, and earnings data are available,
with beginning dates and detailed industry descriptions.
27
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS—Selected Industries
Description of series.—With, the employment industries other than mining and manufacturing) into
figures for the specified payroll period, described in the total man-hours reported for each industry. The
the preceding section, BLS collects from the sample average hours are normally less than scheduled hours
establishments total man-hours for which pay is because of such factors as absenteeism, labor turnreceived by production or nonsupervisory workers, over, part-time work, and stoppages.
Uses and limitations.—Changes in hours worked
including hours paid for holidays, sick leave, and
vacations taken. Data on average weekly hours, supplement the information on employment, since
weekly earnings and hourly earnings are regularly frequently hours worked are affected even before
published for about 350 individual industry groups employment by changes in economic activity. The
and subgroups, as well as for construction and hoursfiguresare used in compiling the average earnmanufacturing among the major industry divisions. ings figures discussed below. They also serve as a
Because of sample limitations, estimates are not basis for current production estimates for some
prepared for other industry divisions or for all non- industries (see description of the index of industrial
agricultural industries combined. Overtime hours production, p. 33.)
Hours paid for as measured by those series differ
(horn's in excess of regular hours for which premium
payments were made) are estimated separately for from hours worked, and from "plant man-hours,"
which do not include hours paid for vacation, sick
major industry groups in manufacturing.
leave, or holidays.
Statistical procedures.—The average hours figures
are obtained by dividing the number of production
References.—See above, under Nonagricultural
and related workers (or nonsupervisory workers in Employment (p. 26).
28
Average Weekly Hours
[Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
Manufacturing
Year
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Building
construction
Retail
trade 1
1929
44.2
(2)
(3)
(2)
(3)
1930
1931
1932..
1933
1934
42. 1
40.5
38. 3
38. 1
34. 6
(32)
()
(22)
()
(22)
()
(23)
()
(22)
()
(22)
()
(2)
1935
1936..
1937..
1938
1939
36. 6
39.2
38. 6
35. 6
37.7
37. 3
41.0
40.0
35.0
38.0
36. 1
37.7
37.4
36. 1
37.4
30. 1
32.8
33. 4
32. 1
32. 6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
38. 1
40. 6
42.9
44.9
45.2
39.3
42. 1
45. 1
46.6
46. 6
37.0
38.9
40.3
42.5
43. 1
33. 1
34.8
36.4
38. 4
39. 6
42.5
42. 1
41. 1
40. 3
40.4
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
43.4
40.4
40.4
40. 1
39.2
44. 1
40.2
40. 6
40.5
39.5
42.3
40.5
40.1
39. 6
38.8
39.0
38. 1
37. 6
37. 3
36.7
40.3
40.7
40.3
40.3
40.4
1950..
1951...
1952.....
1953..
40. 5
40. 7
40.7
40. 5
39.7
41.2
41.6
41.5
41.3
40.2
39.7
39.5
39.6
39.5
39.0
36.3
37.2
38. 1
37.0
36.2
40.5
40.2
39.9
39.2
39.1
40.7
40.4
41.4
41. 1
39.8
39.5
36.2
36.4
39.0
38.6
1956
32.6
34.8
33. 9
41. 9
40.0
35. 1
28.9
4
(22)
(
(22
()
42.7
i Hours and earnings data exclude eating and drinking places.
J N o t available.
» Data beginning with January 1948 not strictly comparable with those for earlier years.
NOTE.—Monthly data available beginning 1932 for manufacturing industries, 1934 for building construction, and 1939 for retail trade.
manufacturing industries available for years 1909 and 1914 and on continuous basis beginning with 1919.,
Annual data for total
Source: Department of Labor.
29
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS—Selected Industries
Description of series.—The payrollfigureson which and late-shift work and changes in output of workers
these averages are based are collected by BLS with paid on an incentive basis. The changing employthe employment and hoursfigures,described above. ment of workers as between relatively high-paid and
They are reported before deductions for taxes, social low-paid work, and relatively high-wage and lowinsurance, etc. They include pay for sick leave, wage industries, also affects the hourly earnings
holidays, and vacations taken, but exclude retro- averages.
Hourly earnings refer to the actual return to the
active pay and bonuses, unless earned and paid
regularly each pay period. Earnings in 1956 prices worker for a stated period of time, and should not
are the average hourly earnings figures adjusted for be confused with wage rates, which represent the
changes in purchasing power as determined by the rates stipulated for a given unit of work or time.
Since certain types of payments (see above) as well
Consumer Price Index, with 1956=100.
Statistical procedures.—Average hourly earningsas payments to workers excluded from the producare derived by dividing total payrolls by total man- tion worker (or nonsupervisory employee) definition
hours reported for each industry. Only the sample are not included, the earnings series should not be
data are used, since there are no benchmarks avail- taken to represent labor costs to the employer.
The fact that large establishments predominate in
able for hours and earnings.
Uses and limitations.—Average hourly earnings the BLS sample may affect somewhat the level of
figures are widely used in collective bargaining, in the average earningsfiguresfor some industries, but
"escalating" long-tern sales contracts (such as labor has no measurable effect on the trends in average
costs for equipment which takes a number of months hourly earnings.
References.—See above, under Nonagricultural
or years to build) and in general economic analysis.
The hourly earningsfiguresreflect not only changes Employment (p. 26). Estimates of hourly earnings
in basic hourly and incentive wage rates, but also excluding overtime are also published in Employment
such variable factors as premium pay lor overtime and Earnings.
30
Average Hourly Earnings
[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Year
Durable goods
manufacturing
Current
prices
1956
prices 1
Building
construction
Current
prices
Current
prices
1956
prices 3
Current
prices
1929.
$0. 566
$0. 897
()
()
()
()
()
1930.
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
.552
.515
.446
.442
. 532
.899
.921
.887
. 929
1. 081
(3)
(3)
$0. 497
.472
.556
(8)
(3)
$0. 988
. 992
1. 130
(3)
(3)
$0. 420
.427
. 515
(3)
(3)
$0. 835
. 897
1. 047
()
1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
.550
.556
. 624
. 627
.633
1. 089
1. 090
1. 182
. 577
.586
. 674
1. 208
. 686
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
. 729
. 853
.961
1. 019
.661
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
.'724
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
023
086
237
350
401
1. 545
1.513
1. 505
1. 525
1. 599
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
Ill
156
292
410
469
1. 678
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
465
59
67
77
81
1. 655
1. 66
1. 71
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
537
67
77
87
92
1. 737
1. 75
1955.
1956.
1. 88
1. 98
1. 239
283
348
422
509
575
1. 80
1. 83
1. 91
1. 98
3
. 698
.808
.947
1. 059
1. 117
2. 01
2. 10
1956
prices s
Nondurable goods
manufacturing
3
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
3
143
149
277
322
366
1. 406
1. 494
1. 578
1. 662
1. 726
1. 610
1. 572
1. 593
1. 677
1. 81
1. 90
1. 94
2. 04
2. 10
3
1956
prices 2
Retail trade
Current
prices
3
3
()
3
3
(3 )
< 3)
(3 )
(3 )
()
3
(3)
$0. 795
.530
.529
.577
. 584
.582
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
050
037
093
125
139
.815
.824
.903
.908
.932
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
614
616
710
750
824
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
$0. 542
.602
1. 169
1. 183
1. 205
.958
1 860
1. 010
.553
.580
. 640
.723
.803
.861
1. 261
1. 331
.904
1. 015
1. 171
1. 278
1. 325
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
366
414
425
444
513
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
557
55
58
63
378
48
54
61
66
1. 68
1. 71
1.74
1. 80
1. 80
1. 148
252
319
1. 379
1. 478
1. 681
* 1. 848
1. 935
1. 867
1. 913
1. 965
2.039
. 626
2. 083
2. 058
2.045
.783
.893
1. 009
2. 209
1.137
« 2. 088
2. 60
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2. 66
2. 70
2.
2.
2.
2.
031
19
31
48
2.80
1
295
29
36
52
63
2. 80
. 679
.731
1. 088
1. 176
1. 26
1. 32
1. 40
1. 45
1. 50
1. 57
» Hours and earnings data exclude eating and drinking places.
' Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price Index on base 1956=100.
* Not available.
, .
* Data beginning with January 1948 not strictly comparable with those for earlier years.
NOTE .—Monthly data available beginning 1932 for manufacturing Industries, 1934 for building construction, and 1939 for retail trade.
manufacturing industries available for years 1909 and 1914 and on continuous basis beginning with 1919.
Annual data for total
Source: Department of Labor.
31
Average Weekly Earnings
[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Year
Durable goods
manufacturing
Building
construction
Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Retail trade 1
Current
prices
1956
prices 2
Current
prices
1956
prices 2
Current
prices
1956
prices s
Current
prices
1956
prices 2
1929.
$25. 03
$39. 67
$27. 22
$43. 14
$22. 93
$36. 34
w
()
1930.
1931.
1932.
1933.
1934.
23. 25
20. 87
17.05
16. 73
18. 40
37.87
37.33
33. 90
35. 15
37.40
24. 77
21. 28
16. 21
16.43
18.87
40.34
38.07
32.23
34. 52
38. 35
21. 84
20. 50
17.57
16. 89
18.05
35.
36.
34.
35.
36.
57
67
93
48
69
(3s)
()
8
(3)
(3)
()
$22. 97
. (3)
$46. 69
(3 )
( 3)
()
1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
20.13
21. 78
24.05
22.30
23. 86
39. 86
42. 71
45. 55
42.97
46. 69
21.
24.
26.
24.
26.
52
04
91
01
50
42.61
47. 14
50r97
46.26
51. 86
19.
19.
21.
21.
21.
11
94
53
05
78
37.84
39. 10
40.78
40. 56
42. 62
24. 51
27.01
30. 14
29. 19
30.39
48.53
52. 96
57. 08
56. 24
59. 47
(3)
(3)
(3)
(8)
$23. 14
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
25.
29.
36.
43.
46.
20
58
65
14
08
48.93
54.68
28. 44
34.04
42.73
49. 30
52. 07
55. 22
62. 92
71. 22
77.39
80.48
22.27
24. 92
29. 13
34. 12
37. 12
43. 24
46. 06
48. 55
53. 56
57.37
31.
35.
41.
48.
52.
70
14
80
13
18
61.
64
69.
75.
80.
55
95
67
56
65
23. 50
24.42
25. 73
27. 36
29. 53
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
4 4 39
43. 82
49. 97
54. 14
54.92
67.05
61. 03
60. 79
62. 69
49. 05
46.49
52. 46
57. 11
58.03
74. 09
64. 75
63. 82
64. 53
66.24
38.29
41. 14
46. 96
50. 61
51. 41
57.84
57. 30
57. 13
57. 19
58. 69
53.
56.
63.
68.
70.
73
24
30
85
95
81.
78.
77.
77.
80.
16
33
01
80
99
31. 55
36.35
40. 66
43. 85
45.93
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
59.33
64.71
67. 97
71. 69
71. 86
67.04
67. 76
69. 57
72. 78
72. 73
63.
69.
73.
77.
77.
32
47
46
23
18
71. 55
72.74
75. 19
78.41
78. 12
54.71
58.46
60. 98
63. 60
64. 74
61.
61.
62.
64.
65.
82
21
42
57
53
73. 73
81. 47
88.01
91. 76
94. 12
83.31
85.31
90. 08
93. 16
95. 26
19551956-
76.52
79. 99
77. 69
79. 99
83. 21
86. 31
84. 48
86. 31
68. 06
71. 10
69. 10
71. 10
96. 29
101. 92
97.76
101. 92
61. 08
67.72
71. 22
61. 18
1 Hours and earnings data exclude eating and drinking places.
? Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1956=100.
* JNot available.
4 D a t a beginning with January 1948 not strictly comparable with those for earlier years.
Source: Department of Labor.
srssissrs
4
3
3
4
Current
prices
3
()
33
(<))
3
47.
50.
52.
54.
56.
63
65
67
88
70
58.50
60. 60
s s i e ^ —«««*
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—Selected Industries
Average weekly earnings are obtained by multi- ductions have been made for income and socialplying average weekly hours and average hourly security taxes, group insurance, occupational supearnings for each industry (see above under Non- plies, union dues, or other payroll deductions.
agricultural Employment, pp. 25-27). They come
References.—See above, under Nonagricultural
closer than the hourly earnings to measuring what Employment (p. 26). Estimates of net spendable
the worker has to spend, since they are affected by weekly earnings in manufacturing and earnings in
changes in the length of the workweek. However, 1947-49 dollars for selected industries are also pubthey do not represent take-home pay, since no de- lished in Employment and Earnings.
32
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Description oj series.—The Index of Industrial
Production is computed by the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. It is designed to
measure changes in the physical volume or quantity
of output of manufactures and minerals, including
the manufacturing activities of the Department of
Defense and the Atomic Energy Commission. The
manufacturing and mining industries covered by the
index produce about one-third of the value of the
total production of goods and services in the United
States. In October 1956 Federal Reserve began
publication of a monthly index of electricity and gas
output which will eventually be- combined with the
present indexes for manufactures and minerals.
The manufactures and minerals indexes are based
on figures compiled by the Bureau of the Census,
Bureau of Mines, Department of Agriculture, Tariff
Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Internal
Revenue Service, and a few other Government agencies, and by trade associations and trade journals.
The component series are carefully chosen to repreent the industries, industry groups, and other subdivisions in the index, and where necessary and possible they include adjustments for undercoverage or
other deficiencies in the basic series. For example
series based on shipments data are adjusted, where
feasible, for inventory changes; those based on value
data are adjusted for price changes; and those based
on man-hours data for estimated changes in output
per man-hour.
Both annual and monthly indexes are compiled.
The annual indexes are generally based on more reliable and more detailed data than the monthly indexes. The most recent complete annual index (as
of August 1957) is that for 1953. The monthly
indexes, based on less comprehensive data, are later
adjusted to the level of the annual indexes. Work
is now under way to adjust these indexes to the
level of the 1954 Censuses of Manufactures and Mineral Industries. Benchmark indexes for 1954 relative to 1947 are being compiled and will provide a
basis for detailed review of monthly and annual indexes for the entire period since 1947. The use of
comprehensive annual indexes to determine levels
makes it possible to employ fewer but more selective
component series to represent each industry in the
monthly indexes.
Manufactures.—The annual index of manufactures
includes about 1,400 detailed series, and the monthly
index, 175 series. The series selected are classified
into the 21 major industry groups for manufacturing
of the Standard Industrial Classification. These 21
major industry groups are regrouped to form the
subtotals of durable and nondurable manufactured
goods. In the annual index, about three-fourths of
the weights assigned are accounted for by volume
series—i. e., series on quantities of products manufactured or shipped or quantities of materials consumed or supplied. The remaining one-fourth are
mostly deflated value figures, estimates based on
several types of data, or adjusted man-hour data,
with the man-hour data accounting for 4 percent of
the weight. In the monthly index, however, only
about half the weights assigned are accounted for
by the volume series, and the remaining components
consist largely of series based on man-hour data
adjusted for estimated changes in output per manhour to represent output.
Minerals.—The annual index of minerals is composed of about 70 separate series, and the monthly
index of 11 series, classified into the 5 major industry
groups for mining of the Standard Industrial Classification. The annual series on minerals, representing
the production of all the important minerals, are in
physical volume units, and all but one of the monthly
series are also in physical volume units. The exception is the man-hour series used to represent stone
and earth minerals, to which less than 10 percent
of the weight of the minerals index is assigned, and
which is adjusted to annual physical volume levels.
Revision in 1953.—Since its first publication in
1927 the index has undergone several major revisions. The most recent revision was completed in
1953, and the revised index introduced in December
1953. The principal changes were—
1. Increase in the number of component
monthly series from 100 to 175, and many improvements in the series used.
2. Use of component series to represent certain industries formerly represented only indirectly.
3. Use of a comprehensive and detailed annual
index, based on about 1,400 series, to check and
correct the annual levels of the individual
monthly measurements.
4. Use of 1947 value-added data for calculating weights, in place of the 1937 value-added
data previously employed, for the segment of
the index from 1947 to date.
33
5. Change of the comparison base period nection with its input-output studies. The valueaddedfiguresfor manufacturing are obtained mainly
from 1935-39 to 1947^9.
from
the Census of Manufactures for 1947. How6. Adoption of the 1945 Standard Industrial
Classification code as the basis for organizing ever, since value-added data are not available for
individual products of each industry, such data are in
the index and its components.
Detailed revisions of the index are confined for the most cases estimated on the assumption that they
present to the period beginning January 1947. In are proportional to value of the product.
Since the value-added data used relate to 1947,
revising the index for the earlier period, use will be
made largely of the major group components of the while the component series are expressed as relatives
benchmark index of manufactures (computed by with the average for the base period 1947-49 as 100,
Federal Reserve and the Census Bureau from data of it is necessary to adjust the 1947 value added for
the 1939 and 1947 Censuses of Manufactures, and each series by the ratio of the level of that series in
published in 1952) to determine the 1939 levels of the 1947 to the average level of that series in 1947-49.
comparable indexes relative to 1947. Pending this The value-added data so adjusted, expressed as
detailed revision, interim benchmark adjustments percentages of the total for all manufacturing and
have been made to the old indexes for durable and mining, are the weight factors used in combining the
nondurable manufactures—and also for minerals and individual series into the group and total industrial
total industrial production—from January 1939 to production indexes.
December 1946. The old indexes beginning in 1919
Components of the index are adjusted for two
have been linked on to the respective revised meas- kinds of short-time recurring fluctuations—differures to form a series of continuous indexes from 1919 ences in the number of working days from month to
to the present.
month and seasonal variations. The first adjustStatistical procedures.—The method used in com-ment is accomplished by reducing reported quantity
bining the individual series is the weighted average figures to average daily output in the month. For
of relatives. This consists of (1) reducing each this purpose, only regular weekend closings—where
series into relatives with the average for the base in effect—are treated as nonworking days. No alperiod, 1947-49, as 100; (2) multiplying each series lowance is made for holiday shutdowns, whose
of relatives by a base-year weight factor; and (3) effects on production are adjusted by the seasonal
adding the products (series of relatives multiplied variation factors. The adjustment, in effect, leads
by weights) for any one month to obtain the index to monthly estimates of output on a daily average
number for the month. The weights used are per- basis. No working-day adjustment is needed for the
centage weight factors, that is, percentage of the man-hour series which are reported in terms of rates.
weight assigned to each series to the total weight
The adjustment for seasonal fluctuations is made
assigned to all series in the base period. Since the directly for the 21 manufacturing and 5 mineral
total of the percentage weight factors is equal to major industry group indexes, and the adjusted
100, the sum of the products of all series for any one indexes for the larger aggregates—such as durable
month (all series times their respective weight fac- and nondurable manufactures, manufactures, mintors) gives the index of industrial production for erals, and industrial production—are obtained as
that month. The products of the component series combinations of these. New seasonally adjusted
and their weights give the number of points con- indexes were introduced in March 1957, and are
tributed to the index by individual series. This available on request back to January 1947, for some
method of computation facilitates analysis of the of the more important components of the major
changes in the index. For example, it makes it groups.
possible to observe the points contributed by each
Relation to other series.—As an important general
series or group of series, and therefore to determine economic indicator, the index of industrial producwhat series or group of series are responsible for the tion is related in varying degree to other general
month-to-month changes in the total index or in the economic indicators. Among the more important
index for any group or subgroup of industries.
series to which the index is closely related are those
The weights used are based on value added—the on manufacturers' sales. It should be observed
difference between the value of products and the cost however, that these are value or dollar-volume
of materials or supplies consumed—in individual series, and are therefore influenced by price as well
mining and manufacturing industries in 1947. The as quantity changes. The industrial production
value-added data for mining are based on estimates index, on tne other hand, being a measurement of
prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in con- physical volume, registers quantity changes only.
34
Industrial Production
[1947-49=100]
Year
1929
Total
industrial
production
Manufactures
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Minerals
59
58
60
56
68
49
40
31
37
40
48
39
30
36
39
45
31
19
24
30
51
48
42
48
49
59
51
42
48
51
1935
1936
19371938
1939
47
56
61
48
58
46
55
60
46
57
38
49
55
35
49
55
61
64
57
66
55
63
71
62
68
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
67
87
106
127
125
66
88
110
133
130
63
91
126
162
159
69
84
93
103
99
76
81
84
87
93
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
107
90
100
104
97
110
90
100
103
97
123
86
101
104
95
96
95
99
102
99
92
91
100
106
94
1950
1951
19521953
1954
112
120
124
134
125
113
121
125
136
127
116
128
136
153
137
111
114
114
118
116
105
115
114
116
111
1955
1956
139
143
140
144
155
159
126
129
122
129
1930.
1931
1932
1933
1934
„
NOTE.—Monthly>nd annual data available beginning 1919.
Source: Board'of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Differences in movement between the production
index for manufacturing and the shipment series for
manufacturing are also possible for other reasons:
production differs from shipments because of changes
in factory inventories; the production index uses the
establishment as the unit for industry classification,
whereas the shipments series uses the company as
the unit; and the production index uses value added
as weights for the series, whereas the shipments
series implicitly uses value of shipments.
The production index is not comparable in coverage
with deflated gross national product: it covers
manufacturing and mining only, whereas the gross
national product includes all output. In recent
years, product originating in manufacturing and
mining has accounted for about one-third of gross
national product.
Uses and limitations.—The total index of industrial
production is probably most widely used as a business
barometer. Both in whole and in detail it is used
with related data on employment, inventories, trade,
prices, and other economic variables, in analyzing
short- and long-run developments in the economy.
The component indexes are used to determine the
areas in which the occurrence of important changes
accounted for the observed changes in the total
index. They are also used in analyses relating to
individual industries. Many companies, for instance,
make continuing studies of their own output and
sales figures in relation to the output movements of
the industry. They also use the industry and product series in studies of potential markets, and in
other types of research. The new index includes
many more detailed industry and product series than
the old, and this expansion in detail—e. g., for
consumer durable items—greatly facilitates analysis
of current developments in markets for different
types of industrial materials and finished goods.
35
Because the coverage of the index is limited to
manufacturing and mining, it should not be used as
a measure of total production, or even as a measure
of total production of goods; the important goodsproducing sectors of agriculture, construction, and
utilities are not included. It might be noted, however, that changes in the output of manufactures and
minerals are especially significant, in part because
they account for a* large part of variation in the total
of all economic activity.
Since a large portion of the monthly index is
moved by man-hour series adjusted by estimated
changes in output per man-hour, any derived computations of output per man-hour based on the monthly
total manufactures index are of limited significance.
References.—The index of industrial production is
published monthly in the Federal Reserve Bulletin.
Each issue shows, for the past 13 months, seasonally
adjusted indexes for a number of important industries, and for all major groups and larger aggregates. Indexes without seasonal adjustment are
shown for these series and also for individual manufacturing and mineral industries and products. The
December 1953 Bulletin contains a description of the
method of constructing the index of industrial production, and revised historical monthly indexes in
full detail for the period 1947-52 and for major
divisions for the period 1919-52. Monthly indexes
for each year following 1952 are available in the
March issues of the Bulletin. The index of electricity
and gas output is described in the October 1956
Bulletin.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES
The "Durable manufactures" and "Nondurable
manufactures" series shown in Economic Indicators
are selected from the component-group indexes prepared by the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System for the index of industrial production, described above. The table on Production of
Selected Manufactures presents index figures for
nine of the major components of the index of manufactures.
The relative importance of each of these nine
industry indexes, as well as of the minerals and
manufactures indexes, in the overall index of industrial production may be seen in the following tabulation, which shows the percent of the weight of each
to the total weight of the index in the base period,
1947-49:
Industrial production
Minerals
Manufactures
Durable manufactures
Primary metals
6. 70
Fabricated metal products
5. 73
Machinery (electrical and nonelectrical).
13.68
Transportation equipment
7. 54
Lumber and products (except
furniture)
3. 09
All other
8. 43
Nondurable manufactures
Textiles and apparel
11. 87
Paper and printing
8. 93
Chemical and petroleum products
9.34
Foods, beverages, and tobacco.. 11. 51
Allother
3.20
36
100.00
9. 98
90. 02
45. 17
44. 85
The "Consumer durable goods" index is also
compiled by Federal Reserve. It is a revised and
expanded version of an earlier index for major
durable goods first published by the Board in October 1951. In this index, individual series are combined by means of gross-value weights rather than
the value-added weights used in the industrial production index. The index of consumer durable
goods is essentially an index of the volume of factory
output of finished consumer durable commodities.
The index of industrial production, on the other
hand, is essentially an index of the volume of factory
output by industries which reflects output by stage
of manufacture.
Since May 1954, the Federal Reserve has published
monthly indexes, with and without seasonal adjustment, covering the period 1947 to date for total consumer durables, for major durables (including autos,
household furniture, floor coverings, ranges, refrigeration appliances, laundry appliances, heating apparatus, radio sets, television sets), and for other
consumer durables (including auto parts and tires,
and miscellaneous home and personal goods).
Monthly indexes are also published for groupings of
these commodities. Indexes in greater detail are
compiled annually. In addition, monthly indexes
without seasonal adjustment for individual household durable goods are also compiled and are available on request.
An analysis of the consumer durable goods indexes
for the period 1947-53 and a description of the
methods used in preparing these indexes are presented in the May 1954 issue of the Federal Reserve
Bulletin.
Production of Selected Manufactures
[1947-49=100]
Durable manufactures
Year
Nondurable manufactures
Consumer
durable
goods
Primary
metals
Fabricated
metal
products
1939.
54
52
38
47
80
80
66
49
65
1947
1948
1949.
103
107
90
103
104
93
103
104
93
96
102
102
101
106
93
99
103
97
96
103
101
97
103
100
101
100
100
98
102
101
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954..
115
126
116
132
108
115
122
121
136
123
114
130
147
160
142
120
135
154
189
175
113
113
111
118
115
110
106
105
107
100
114
118
118
125
125
118
132
133
142
142
103
105
106
107
106
133
114
105
127
116
1955
1956.
140
138
134
135
155
171
203
199
127
123
109
108
137
145
159
167
109
112
147
131
TransporMachintation
ery 1
equipment
Lumber
and
products 3
Textiles
and
apparel
Paper
and
printing
Foods,
Chemical
and petro- beverleum
ages, and
products tobacco
3
()
1 Electrical and nonelectrical.
* Except furniture,
* Not available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve^System.
WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION
crucible steel now produced is included with the
production of electric furnaces.
The series is based on current reports received
from more than 95 percent of the industry, giving
actual production for the preceding week and advance estimates of production for the coming week.
The production for the 5 percent of the industry
not reporting weekly is estimated on the basis of the
reported previous months' production of the companies included in this group.
The Institute publishes the weekly series each
Monday in a mimeographed release, showing production for the preceding week and estimated production for the coming week. It also publishes each
month detailed production of steel by types of furnaces, whether ingots or castings, and volume of
alloy steel. Monthly production of blast furnaces
shows volume of pig iron and ferroalloys produced.
Both series are supplemented with statistics showing
geographical district in which the steel and iron were
Steel Produced
produced. Annual statistics in similar detail are
The weekly series on steel production is compiled presented in the Institute's Annual Statistical Report.
With its weekly, monthly and annual figures on
by the American Iron and Steel Institute. It includes steel for ingots and castings produced by open- production, the Institute publishes a series on "Perhearth, Bessemer, and electric-furnace processes, cent of theoretical capacity" and an "Index of ingot
except for the small amount of steel for castings production, 1947-49=100." The figures on percent
produced in foundries operated by companies which of capacity are the ratio of the weekly production to
do not produce ingots. The small quantity of average weekly capacity on the first of the year.
The following brief descriptions relate to the
weekly series presented each month in Economic
Indicators for a number of selected indicators—
steel, electric power, bituminous coal, freight, paperboard, and cars and trucks. The series are useful as
current measures, available more promptly than
monthly or annual figures. They are subject,
however, to erratic movements not shown in comparable series covering longer time periods.
The historical table of annual data presented here
is in terms of weekly averages, in order to facilitate
comparison of historic levels with the current series
in Economic Indicators. Weekly averages for years,
as shown in this table, are computed by dividing the
total annual figures by 52. Weekly averages for
months, as shown in current issues of Economic Indicators, are computed by assigning individual weeks
to the month in which a majority of the days fall.
37
This series, which measures the operating rate in
relation to full capacity, is useful as an indicator of
the general economic level but cannot be used for
year-to-year comparisons of the volume of steel
production. The index, on the other hand, provides
an accurate comparative measure of the volume of
steel production from one period to another, regardless of changes in capacity.
The weekly series was initiated in October 1933.
Comparable annual data on steel production are
available from 1867.
Electric Power Distributed
The weekly series on electric power distributed is
compiled by the Edison Electric Institute. It may
be defined as the energy sold to ultimate consumers
plus line losses and unaccounted-for losses; or as net
generation plus net import over international boundaries, less energy used by the producer and the
distributor. It includes operations of all private,
municipal, cooperative, and governmental enterprises engaged in the production or distribution of
electricity for the use of the public; it does not include
energy generated by captive plants of industrial
establishments.
The weeklyfiguresare collected by the Institute by
telegraph from approximately 105 reporting utilities
(either companies or groups of interconnected
companies) representing about 95 percent of the total
energy available for public consumption. The
estimated 100-percent production is obtained by
applying the ratio of the monthly output of all
utilities as collected and presented by the Edison
Electric Institute for the previous month.
The weekly series is useful in economic analysis,
because it is available promptly and is a reliable
measure of net energy distribution to the public
supply. It is not a sensitive measure of important
changes in industrial activity, however, since it
includes energy used for nonindustrial purposes,
such as air-conditioning loads, requirements of the
Atomic Energy Commission, and sales to residential
and rural consumers.
The weekly series is issued each Wednesday by the
Edison Electric Institute. The Institute also publishes monthly research statistics, including additional data on source and disposal of energy, for
which the data on generation are obtained from the
Federal Power Commission. The Federal Power
Commission issues a monthly bulletin on Electric
Power Statistics, with monthly and annual data on
production, fuel consumption, requirements, and
supply.
38
The weekly series was initiated in 1928. Annual
data on the production of electrical energy are available from 1902, but data for 1935 and prior years are
not strictly comparable with those beginning in 1936.
Bituminous Coal Mined
The series on production of bituminous coal is
compiled weekly by the Bureau of Mines, Department of the Interior. It includes bituminous coal
and lignite, and is a very close approximation of total
production in the United States.
The figures are estimated on the basis of carloadings and river shipments. The method of estimation consists of raising the rail and river shipment
figures by factors to represent the coal that is not
transported by rail or river, such as truck shipments,
local sales, colliery fuel, and coal produced by small
mines for local use. The weekly estimates are adjusted annually by the actual figures on production
of coal and lignite collected each year from all producers by the Bureau of Mines. The correction is
negligible—within less than one-half of 1 percent.
The daily average for the week is obtained by dividing
the weekly production by the maximum number of
working days (not days actually worked) in that
week.
Although bituminous coal is still an important industrial fuel, its importance has decreased in recent
years. In 1920 it accounted for 67.4 percent of the
total supply of energy from mineral fuels, in 1940 for
47.2 percent, and in 1955 for 27.8 percent. The
series on production of bituminous coal and lignite
has other weaknesses as an indicator of industrial
activity. Coal mines normally operate at a fraction
of their capacity—about 3 days a week—and the
coal-using industries carry considerable stocks to
allow for changes in industrial activity, with resultant
changes in coal consumption, without regard to the
ups and downs in coal output. The figures on coal
production should therefore be analyzed in conjunction with related series, also compiled by the Bureau
of Mines, on the consumption of coal by industries
and deliveries to retail dealers, and on stocks of coal
held by industries and retail dealers.
The weekly estimates of total production and average production per working day and series on consumption and consumers' stocks are published in the
Bureau of Mines multilithed Weekly Coal Report.
Detailed annual data and monthly data for the
current and preceding years, as well as a description
of the method used in making the estimates, are
published in the Bureau of Mines Minerals Yearbook.
Prior to publication of the bound volumes of the
Weekly Indicators of Production
[Weekly averages]
Steel produced
Year
Thousands Percent of
of net
theoretical
tons
capacity 1
Electric
power
distributed
(millions of
kilowatthours)
Bituminous
coal mined
(thousands
of short
tons) 3
Freight
loaded
(thousands
of cars)
Paperboard
produced
(thousands
of tons)
1, 016
82
103. JO
1929
1, 184
88.7
1, 733
1, 740
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
855
549
289
493
560
62. 8
38.0
19. 7
33.5
37.4
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
714
646
488
544
655
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
522
243
007
090
173
882
714
542
562
593
76
73
64
76
76
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
732
1, 023
1, 086
609
1,013
48.7
68.4
72. 5
39. 6
64.5
1,
2,
2,
2,
2,
793
037
256
148
398
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
217
432
456
139
293
606
694
724
586
652
19401941
1942
1943
1944
1,281
1, 589
1, 650
1, 704
1,715
82. 1
97.3
96. 8
98. 1
95.5
2,
3,
3,
4,
4,
684
142
552
155
385
1,
1,
1,
1,
2,
503
695
909
907
009
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
529
277
628
695
496
83.5
72.5
93.0
94. 1
81. 1
4, 244
4,235
4, 821
5,313
5, 498
1,
1,
2,
1,
1,
1950_
1951
1952
1953
1954.
1,
2,
1,
2,
1,
857
018
782
141
694
96.9
100.9
85. 8
94. 9
71.0
6, 183
6, 958
7, 455
8,246
8,883
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1955
1956
2, 245
2, 204
93.0
89.8
10, 318
11, 292
Cars and trucks assembled
(thousands) 3
Total
Cars
Trucks
88. 2
14. 8
64. 5
45. 9
26.3
37. 0
52. 9
53.
37.
21.
30.
41.
5
9
8
3
8
11.
8.
4.
6.
11.
0
0
5
7
1
88
103
107
95
114
75. 9
85. 7
92.5
47. 9
69. 5
62.
70.
75.
38.
55.
5
64
3
5
7
13.
15.
17.
9.
13.
4
1
2
4
8
699
814
823
816
835
122
152
138
147
153
86.
93.
20.
14.
15.
8
4
8
5
2
71. 7
72. 3
4.
4 0
15.
21.
16.
14.
15.
1
0
9
5
2
891
745
058
948
427
806
795
856
822
691
153
163
180
184
177
15.
59.
92.
101.
120.
1
6
2
5
4
1.
41.
68.
75.
98.
6
5
4
2
6
13.
18.
23.
26.
21.
5
1
8
3
8
687
772
548
521
303
748
779
730
735
652
214
229
213
241
236
154.
129.
106.
141.
125.
2
8
8
1
6
128. 4
102. 7
83. 4
118. 0
106.0
25.
27.
23.
23.
19.
9
2
4
2
7
1, 542
1, 690
724
728
269
274
176. 7
132. 8
152. 7
111. 6
24. 0
21. 2
()
«
* Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity as of January 1 of each year.
Daily average.
Production figures for 1929-56; factory sales figures for 1928 and preceding years.
4 Less than 600.
3
8
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, National Paperboard
Association, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
filed to meet the reporting deadline and then is corrected when a final figure is available. The weekly
revenue freight loaded report to the AAR contains
information on revenue freight by eight broad commodity groups and on total loads received from connections by railroad geographical district and by
individual class I railroads. Comparisons are shown
for the corresponding weeks of each of the 2 preceding
Freight Loaded
years.
The weekly revenue freight loaded series is widely
The weekly revenue freight loaded series, comused
by business analysts as one of the indicators of
piled by the Association of American Railroads, was
initiated in 1919 as an operations report for railroad general business activity. It should be remembered,
officers. The published data are totals of weekly however, that long-term changes in the series inadereports received by the AAR from all class I railroads. quately reflect business activity, especially because
Revisions in the data are necessary in only a very of the increasing importance of competing means of
few cases, usually when a preliminary estimate is transportation (primarily truck).
Yearbook, this information is also available in the
annual Mineral Market Report on bituminous coal
and lignite, and in the "preprint" of the Yearbook
chapter distributed as a separate publication.
Weekly data on production of bituminous coal and
lignite are available from 1917, annual from 1807.
39
The detailed freight loaded data are published by
the AAR in its CS-54A report, "Revenue Freight
Loaded and Received from Connections." The report is published weekly on the Thursday following
the week to which the data relate.
The freight loaded data are available from 1919.
Paperboard Produced
Comprehensive monthly and annual data on pulp,
paper, and paperboard are collected by the Bureau
of the Census and published in its Facts for Industry
series. The paperboard component of the Census
series is not completely comparable with the Association series, though the differences are not large.
The Association's weekly data on paperboard production was initiated in 1933. Comparable annual
data are available from 1925.
The weekly series on production of paperboard,
compiled by the National Paperboard Association, Cars and Trucks Assembled
measures the production of container board, bending
The weekly series on output of cars and trucks is
board, nonbending board, special paperboard stock,
cardboard, and other miscellaneous types of paper- compiled by Ward's Reports, Inc., and is based on
board. The data are obtained from weekly reports information received from each of the individual
which the Association collects from member com- producers in the United States. It is published each
panies, currently accounting for about 87 percent of Monday in Wards Automotive Reports, which shows
total production. The estimated 100 percent pro- a breakdown of the weekly total by cars and trucks
duction is calculated on the basis of the ratio of the and by makes, current and cumulative monthly
annual production of the companies which submit totals, and corresponding figures for the previous
weekly reports to total production for the previous year, with similar data for Canada. Summary data
year. The figures on total annual production are a are presented in Ward*s Automotive Yearbook.
Monthly and annual data on factory sales are comsummation of annual data reported to the Association
by practically all mills. Because of the extensive use piled and published by the Automobile Manufacr
of paperboard in the manufacture of containers and turers Association. The sales figures differ someboxes for packaging and shipping numerous products, what from the productionfigures,principally because
the production of paperboard moves closely with they include some units produced in earlier periods
and exclude some units produced in the current
general economic activity.
The weekly data are issued by the Association in month.
a one-page release on Wednesday of the week followIn the accompanying historical table, data for the
ing that to which the figures relate. More detailed years 1929 through 1955 are average weekly producstatistics are presented in the Association's annual tion figures derived from annual totals in Ward's
Paperboard Industry Statistics. The Association also Yearbooks for 1956 and earlier; and data for 1956
publishes a series on "percent of activity" based on are derived from the weekly reports.
industry reports of the time in use of the machines
The weekly productionfigureshave been published
on an inch-hour basis (1 inch of machine width by Ward's since 1925. Annual data on factory sales
operated for 1 hour).
of cars and trucks are available from 1900.
40
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Description of series.—The series on new construction activity represent the dollar value of new
construction put in place. The Business and Defense
Services Administration in the Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the
Department of Labor are jointly responsible for the
series, BDSA having primary responsibility for
private nonresidential construction and BLS for
private residential and all public construction.
Seasonally adjusted monthly data, prepared by
these two agencies, are published in current issues
•of Economic Indicators.
Construction covers the erection of fixed structures
and utilities. It includes building and nonbuilding
structures such as dams, reservoirs, docks, highways,
airfields, and utility lines. Installed service facilities
which become integral parts of structures are included, but movable equipment and machinery are
not included. Drilling of oil, gas, and water wells,
digging and shoring of mines, and operations which
are an integral part of farming such as plowing,
terracing, and digging drainage ditches, are not included. Major additions and alterations are counted
as new construction, but maintenance and repairs
are not.
A revision completed in June 1957 substantially
raised the estimates of residential construction back
to 1945, as a result of changes in the estimates for
additions and alterations. At the same time, estimates of public construction for 1955 and 1956 were
revised downward, primarily as a result of changes
in the estimates for highway construction.
The distinction between private and Federal,
State, and local public construction is made here on
the basis of ownership, not source of funds. Residential construction includes nonhousekeeping facilities such as hotels and dormitories as well as dwelling units.
The series on construction contracts compiled by
the F. W. Dodge Corporation covers private and
public ownership for nonresidential, residential, and
public works and utilities construction. The series
includes additions and major alterations, but not
maintenance and repair. Coverage of force-account
or smaller construction projects is not complete, all
farm construction is excluded, and rural nonfarm
construction is covered less fully than urban. The
series formerly covered only the 37 Eastern States,
but beginning with January 1957 a monthly series
has been compiled for all 48 States and extended back
to January 1956. Current issues of Economic Indicators also show annual rates of the data on construc-
tion contracts for recent months, with and without
seasonal adjustment. The seasonal adjustment of
this series is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Statistical procedures.—Three general methods are
used by BDSA and BLS in making the estimates of
new construction activity, depending on the availability of sources of data on different types of construction.
Thefirstmethod—converting data on work started
to estimates of work put in place—is used for most
types of private and non-Federal public construction.
Information in the Dodge statistical reports for the
37 Eastern States is adjusted to allow for projects not
included in these summaries—chiefly small projects
and work done by a firm's own force. Information
on starting date and cost is obtained from contractors or owners of the larger projects. Allowance for
construction in the 11 Western States is made by
applying the ratio of valuation of building authorized
in these States to the total valuation of permits in the
entire country for each of several types of construction. An estimate of the valuation of dwelling units
started is obtained by multiplying the number of
units reported in the "New nonfarm housing starts"
series (p. 44) by valuationfiguresreported in building
permits, the latter having been adjusted on the basis
of periodic field surveys to reflect construction costs.
These estimates of valuation of work started are then
translated into estimates of the value of work put in
place by the application of typical progress patterns
which have been developed for different types and
sizes of projects by surveying actual projects.
The second method—reports of physical progress—
provides the basis for estimates of construction
activity on most Federal public-construction projects
as well as on some State and local jobs receiving Federal aid. Progress reports are supplied by the Federal agencies administering the various programs.
The third method—based on financial reports—is
used for estimating most utility construction. The
method is to apply a monthly trend pattern to an
estimated annual total based on the previous year's
level and other information on anticipated activity.
The trend data are based on Dodge statistical summaries of construction contracts and quarterly reports of some types of companies to the Securities and
Exchange Commission. These monthly estimates
are revised when thefinancialreports become available after the end of the year. Construction expenditure estimates for telephone and telegraph are
based on monthly estimates received from the com41
pames; those for railroads are based on monthly esti- same purpose as would a series on new work started.
mates compiled by the Interstate Commerce Com- The future trend in the series is determined to a
considerable extent by past commitments made.
mission.
The figures cannot be used as an indicator of the
Monthly estimates of farm construction are prepared by projecting annual estimates for the preced- physical volume of construction without extensive
ing year on the basis of the trend of farm income and adjustments for changes in prices and wage rates,
technological changes, and other relevant factors.
applying a seasonal pattern to the annual totals.
The major segments of the Dodge series on con- A series reflecting some of these adjustments, pubstruction contracts are compiled by several methods. lished monthly in Construction Review, shows the
Data on one- and two-family houses are obtained value of new construction put in place in terms of
primarily from building permits in all the most active 1947-49 prices. Also, since the series does not
building areas and a sample of other areas. Permit include maintenance and repair, it cannot be related
costs are adjusted to reflect estimated actual con- directly to the total use of construction labor and
struction cost. In the 37 Eastern States, data for materials.
Because of the many different sources of data, and
all other project types in the Dodge series are based
upon the corporation's news reporting service: inter- the various estimating procedures used, the error in
views with architects, contractors, owners, real- the estimates cannot be statistically measured.
estate brokers and others, to obtain information on Year-to-year trends are probably quite good but
construction jobs being planned and the awarding of caution should be exercised in drawing conclusions
construction contracts. In the 11 Western States, from relatively small month-to-month changes.
the corresponding segment of the series is based preWhile extensive adjustments are made for underdominantly upon information from building permits coverage of the source data now used, there is no
in a sample of geographic areas, adjusted to reflect satisfactory factual basis for making these adjustactual construction cost. This information is sup- ments, and much reliance is placed on judgment
plemented with data from secondary sources and and opinion. The construction patterns used in
field reports on construction in nonpermit portions translating work started into work put in place may
of the sample areas.
be obsolete and do not reflect short-run changes due
Relation to other series.—The new construction to such factors as weather or the labor and materials
activity series is one of the components in the gross supply situation.
national product series (see above, p. 4) and in the
References.—Data on construction activity are
gross private domestic investment series (see p. 16). published in more detail by type of construction,
The series differ in one respect, however: gas and oil ownership, and source of funds in Construction
well drilling is included in the new construction series Review, a monthly publication of the Departments of
in the national accounts, but not in the series shown Labor and Commerce. Historical monthly data for
here.
1939^8 are given in the May 1951 Statistical SuppleThe definition of construction used in the new ment to Construction and Building Materials, pubconstruction series is more inclusive than that in lished by the Department of Commerce, and for
some of the series pertaining to labor. The non- 1949-54 in "Construction Volume and Costs," a
agricultural employment series contains a component statistical supplement to Construction Review issued
for employment in contract construction only, in May 1955. More detailed descriptions of the
excluding employment on construction performed by sources of data and the methods of compiling the
force account. (For a fuller discussion of noncom- estimates are contained in Techniques of Preparing
parability of these data, see the Technical Note in Major BLS Statistical Series (BLS Bulletin 1168),
the March 1955 issue of Construction Review.) The December 1954, and in the annual construction acseries on average weekly hours and average hourly tivity supplement to Construction Review.
and weekly earnings cover contract construction of
Data on construction contracts are published in
buildings only.
more detail by type of construction, geographic
Uses and limitations.—Although the new con- location, and ownership in Dodge Statistical Research
struction series indicates the current volume of this Service, a monthly subscription service of the F. W.
segment of economic activity, it does not serve the Dodge Corporation;
42
New Construction
[Billions of dollars]
Year
Total new
construction
Private
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
Federal
State, and
local 1
Other
1929
10.8
8.3
3.6
4.7
2.5
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
8.7
6.4
3.5
2.9
3.7
5.9
3.8
1.7
2. 1
3.8
2.2
1.2
1.0
1.5
.5
2.9
2.7
1. 9
.6
1935
1936
1937
1938,
1939,
4.2
6.5
7.0
7.0
2.0
1.0
1.6
1.0
2.2
8.2
3.0
3.9
3.6
4.4
8.7
5. 1
1940,
1941,
1942,
1943
1944.
1.6
.6
1.9
2.0
2.7
3.0
3.5
1.7
. 9
6.2
12.0
3.4
14. 1
8.3
5.3
2.0
2.2
.8
.8
.9
1.4
2.0
3.6
5.8
10.7
6.3
3. 1
2. 1
5.6
6.9
8.3
8. 1
2.4
2.4
3.4
4.8
6.4
8.9
17.9
23.2
24.2
3. 4
10.4
14.5
18.4
17.8
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953
1954.
30.0
32.7
34.8
37. 1
39.6
23.0
23.3
23.8
25.7
27.7
14.1
12.5
13.8
15.4
11.0
11.9
12.3
7.0
9.4
10.9
11.4
11.9
1955.
1956.
44. 6
46. 1
32.6
18.7
17.6
13. 9
15.6
12.0
12.8
5.8
12.8
33.2
1.3
4.8
7.5
10. 1
9.6
12.8
10.8
48 States 3
3.5
3. 1
3.4
3.8
1.6
1. 7
2.1
2.7
1.7
1.1
1.4
1945
1946,
1947
1948.
1949.
4
2
1.6
2.2
4
4
Construction contracts
31. 6
1 Includes public residential contraction.
,
. „
a Compiled by F. W . Dodge Corporation; omits small contracts, and covers rural areas less fully than urban.
» Series begins January 1956. The 37 Eastern States data are probably indicative of the 48 States trend for other periods.
4 Revised estimates or residential construction from 1945, introduced in June 1957.
• Revised series beginning January 1956; previous figures not entirely comparable.
NOTE.—Monthly data on new construction activity available beginning 1939; annual from 1915. Monthly and annual data on construction contracts available from 1925 for 37-State series and, beginning 1956, for 48 States. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Labor, and F. W . Dodge Corporation.
43
HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING
Description of series.—The series on the total num- number of nonfarm dwelling units started eacb
ber of new nonfarm dwelling units on which con- month.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts of
struction is started in the United States each month,
with the breakdown by public and private ownership, private units, published in current issues of Economic
is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as Indicators, is computed each month by dividing the
described below. Independently of that compilation, estimate of private starts for that month by the
the Federal Housing Administration and the Vet- respective seasonal index and multiplying the result
erans Administration provide reports on the number by 12.
A preliminary estimate is issued approximately
of units involved in their respective programs.
For the purpose of the BLS series the dwelling unit 15 days following the end of the month. The estiis defined as a dwelling place containing permanent mating technique for permit places involves the
cooking facilities, i. e., accommodations with house- computation for identical places of the percent change
keeping facilities designed for family living. Units from the previous month, using all places which have
such as transient hotels and dormitories which lack reported in time. The preliminary estimate of starts
housekeeping facilities, and such dwellings as trailers, in nonpermit places is obtained by projecting the
houseboats, sheds, and shacks, and temporary World most recent final estimate for such places on the
War II housing built by the Government are not basis of the trend of starts in permit places, with
included. Dwelling units are classified as public or adjustments for seasonal factors affecting the relationship between permit and nonpermit places.
private on the basis of ownership.
Statistical procedures.—Each month BLS mails a The figures for the FHA and VA programs under
questionnaire to some 7,000 local government "New nonfarm housing starts" are based on adminofficials who issue building permits, located in incor- istrative reports of the number of units on which
porated places or in counties and townships, first compliance inspections have been made by
throughout the country. Information is requested, those agencies. The first inspection is usually made
among other things, on the number of dwelling units after the footings are in—normally only a slight lag
for which building permits were issued during the from the time construction is considered started in
the BLS series. The FHA and VAfiguresfor "Promonth.
Reports from permit-issuing places are classified posed home construction" are also based on adminby type of place, size, geographic area, and whether istrative reports of the two agencies. The number
inside or outside a metropolitan area. Reports in of units for which FHA has received applications is
each class are weighted to account for places not limited to those for commitments on 1- to 4-family
reporting, and added to give the total number of home mortgages, thus making it more nearly comunits for which permits were issued. Adjustments parable with the VA series since the VA program
are made to allow for difference in time between covers only homes to be built for occupancy by
issuance of permit and start of construction and for veteran owners.
permits not used. The result is an estimate of
Relation to other series—-Data compiled for the
private units started in permit-issuing places.
BLS housing starts series are used in the preparation
Information on new housing starts in areas not of estimates for the series on new construction,
covered by building permits is obtained from field described in the preceding section.
surveys in a sample of 53 areas embracing 131 counThe BLS series on new housing starts has a
ties. The national estimate of starts in all non- limited relationship to census of housing figures.
permit-issuing areas is based on a ratio type of com- Units started should not be added to census invenputation which depends on the relationship between tory figures without an adjustment to allow time
the volume of starts in the nonpermit and the permit for completion. Also, although new construction
parts of the sample areas. This estimate is added usually accounts for the greater part of the differto that for permit areas go give the total number of ence in inventory reported in successive housing
private nonfarm units started.
censuses, there are other changes too, such as demoInformation on number of public units started is lition, disaster losses, additions and losses due to
obtained directly from the sponsoring Federal, State, conversions, and changes in classification as farm or
and local agencies. This figure added to the esti- nonfarm. The magnitude of some of these factors
mate for private units gives the estimate of the total will be indicated in the forthcoming National
44
Housing Starts and Applications for Financing
[Thousands of units]
New nonfarm housing starts
Privately financed
Year
Publicly
financed
Total
Government programs
Total
Total
1929
509.0
509. 0
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
330.0
254.0
134.0
93. 0
126. 0
330.0
254.0
134. 0
93.0
126.0
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Proposed home construction
„
FHA
Applications for
F H A commitments 1
VA
221.0
319.0
336. 0
406.0
515.0
5.3
14. 8
3.6
6. 7
56. 6
215. 7
304.2
332.4
399. 3
458.4
14. 0
49.4
60.0
118. 7
158. 1
14.0
49.4
60. 0
118. 7
158. 1
20.
47.
49.
125.
167.
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
602. 6
706. 1
356. 0
191.0
141. 8
73.0
86. 6
54. 8
7.3
3. 1
529.
619.
301.
183.
138.
180. 1
220.4
165.7
146. 2
93.3
180. 1
220. 4
165. 7
146.2
93. 3
217. 9
277. 7
234. 8
144. 4
62.9
194 5
194 6
194 7
194 8
194 9
209.3
670. 5
849. 0
931. 6
1, 025. 1
1.2
8. 0
3. 4
18. 1
36. 3
208. 1 .
662.5
845. 6
913. 5
988. 8
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
41. 2
69.0
229.0
294. 1
363. 8
195 0
195 1
195 2
195 3
195 4
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
0
3
0
8
4
43. 8
71.2
58. 5
35. 5
18. 7
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
352.
020.
068.
068.
201.
686.
412.
421.
408.
583.
195 5
195 6
1, 328. 9
1, 118. 1
19. 4
24.2
1, 309. 5
1, 093. 9
1
a
J
4
396.
091.
127.
103.
220.
6
5
2
7
7
2
1
5
3
7
4
7
2
2
6
3
669. 6
460. 0
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
7
5
9
0
3
3 200. 0
148. 6
141. 3
156. 6
307. 0
276. 7
^ 189. 3
392. 9
270. 7
486.
263.
279.
252.
276.
Requests
for V A
appraisals
6
8
8
1
8
56.
121.
286.
293.
327.
6
7
4
2
0
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
397.
192.
267.
253.
338.
7
8
9
7
6
(2)
164. 4
226. 3
251. 4
535.4
306. 2
197. 7
620. 8
401. 5
Units represented b y mortgage applications for new home construction.
Not available.
Partly estimated.
Excludes Armed Forces housing: 2,667 units in 1956.
NOTE.—Monthly data on new nonfarm housing starts available beginning 1939; annual from 1910.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Labor, Federal Housing Administration ( F H A ) , and Veterans Administration ( V A ) .
Housing Inventory of 1956. The census also in- and related economic trends. One deficienc}7, which
cludes certain types of places where people live affects its use as a timely indicator, is the fact that
which would not be counted as dwelling units under the revised nonfarm starts estimate, made 3% months
after the month affected, may differ fairly substanthe definition for the new housing starts series.
The BLS also publishes data on building authorized tially from the preliminary estimate. For the 8-year
for all reporting places. These figures differ from the period, 1949-56, these changes averaged 2.7 percent,
new housing starts series in that they represent totals but ranged from an increase of 11.9 percent in the
taken from building permit reports without any ad- final estimate over the preliminary to a decrease of
5.9 percent. Increases have been slightly more
justment for lag and lapse.
Uses and limitations.—The BLS series on nonfarmfrequent and larger than decreases.
The revised or final estimates are subject to two
housing starts serves as an important guide in the
formulation of national housing policy and as an kinds of errors. The first, amounting to about 2 perindicator of a substantial part of all building activity cent, is error due to sampling in nonpermit places
45
and lack of complete information reported from
permit-issuing places. The amount of the second
type of error cannot be measured. It stems from a
variety of sources, such as building without permits
and short-run changes in the time of starting construction after permits are issued.
The FHA and VA series indicate the importance of
these Government programs in the field of new home
construction. Certain limitations in these series
should be observed, however, particularly in their
relation to other data. Although FHA and VA may
make inspections during construction and the units
may be counted as FHA or VA "starts/' the permanent financing after completion may not be
underwritten. Also, some applications for FHA
commitments or requests for VA appraisals lapse.
There is some duplication of units in applications for
FHA commitments and requests for VA appraisals.
In cases where both agencies issue valuation commitments, FHA makes the compliance inspection and
the unit is reported as an FHA start, even though
the mortgage may finally be underwritten by VA or
by neither agency. As mentioned above, the FHA
series on housing starts includes rental housing,
whereas the FHA applications series covers only 1to 4-family homes.
References—Data on housing starts are published
in somewhat greater detail in Construction Review,
published monthly by the Departments of Labor and
Commerce. Historical monthly data for 1939-52
may be found in Construction During Five Decades,
Historical Statistics 1907-52 (BLS Bulletin 1146).
This bulletin also gives monthly data on housing
starts with seasonal adjustment for 1939-52, but the
seasonal adjustments for 1946-52 are obsolete. A
more detailed technical description of the methods
used is given in Techniques of Preparing Major BLS
Statistical Series (BLS Bulletin 1168), December
1954.
For the Government programs, monthly data from
1952 on starts and on proposed home construction
are given in current issues of Housing Statistics, a
monthly publication of the Housing and Home
Finance Agency.
SALES AND INVENTORIES
Manufacturing and Trade
Description of series.—Sales and inventories for
manufacturing, wholesale trade and retail trade are
estimated monthly by the Office of Business Economics, Department of Commerce, on the basis of
current data collected by the Bureau of the Census
and other sources. The sales estimates include all
business receipts of the reporting companies or establishments, not just receipts from sale of merchandise.
In general, the inventory estimates are based on the
values carried on the books of the reporting panels.
The current estimates are adjusted for seasonal
variation by OBE.
The figures for "manufacturing and trade" are
totals of the separate estimates for manufacturing,
wholesale trade and retail trade. The manufacturing series are based upon the company unit of
classification, whereas the wholesale and retail trade
series are based upon the establishment unit. The
wholesale series are adjusted by OBE, however, to
remove the major sources of duplication with manufacturing so that the series can be summed to obtain
consistent series for total business.
Statistical procedures.—For manufacturing, current
estimates are made on the basis of reports received
in the Monthly Industry Survey, which collects information on sales, inventories and orders from a
sample of manufacturing companies. Collection and
46
tabulation of this survey were transferred in March
1957 from OBE to the Bureau of the Census, and
the sample design and other aspects of the survey
are at present under review by the two agencies,
preparatory to some revision and expansion. Information from the survey is used by OBE to extrapolate benchmark estimates based on data from the
Internal Revenue Service. The most recent benchmark figures are based on 1954 income tax returns
for corporations and sole proprietorships and 1953
returns for partnerships.
For wholesale monthly sales and end-of-month
inventories, revised series back to January 1948 were
introduced in August 1957, incorporating benchmark
data from the 1954 Census of Business. The current
series are derived by extrapolating modified 1954
Census of Business data on the basis of monthly
reports to the Census Bureau. Sales of merchant
wholesalers are compiled and released by the Bureau
of the Census, on the basis of dollar estimates of sales
reported monthly by its probability sample of merchant wholesalers representing all kinds of business.
Sales of all other types of wholesalers are derived by
OBE by extrapolating the sales reported by these
segments in the 1954 Census of Business on the basis
of the current movement of sales as reported to the
Census Bureau by the merchant wholesalers. The
revised series on end-of-month inventories is derived
by OBE by extrapolating the year-end inventories of
Sales and Inventories
Manufacturing
and trade
Sales i
Inventories 2
Manufacturing
Sales 1
Inventories 2
Wholesale
New
orders 1
Sales J
Retail
Inventories 2
Sales 1
Department stores
Inventories 2
Billions of dollars
4
()
m
5.9
12. 8
10.8
20. 1
5. 1
11.5
12. 1
15. 8
18. 6
21.9
23. 8
22.
28.
31.
31.
31.
23.9
27.2
33. 2
36. 1
34. 5
39.
«44
45.
48.
47.
7
7
9
4
4
52. 3
54 8
5
2
8
1
3
1
«
Sales i
Inventories 3
Index 1947-49
= 100
w
«
4.0
0)
38
48
5.4
2.2
3. 1
3. 5
5.5
35
36
5. 9
8.2
10.4
12. 8
13. 8
12.
17.
19.
20.
19.
8
0
3
1
5
6. 8
9.8
13.3
12. 7
11. 9
2.4
3.0
3.4
3.8
4. 2
3. 2
4.0
3.8
3. 7
3.9
3.9
4. 6
4.8
5.3
5.9
6. 1
7.8
8.0
7. 6
7.6
37
44
50
56
62
38
46
64
55
58
30.9
42.9
50. 6
55. 4
51. 8
12.
12.
15.
17.
16.
9
6
9
6
4
18.4
24. 5
28. 9
31. 7
28. 9
10.5
13.7
15.6
17. 4
15. 9
4. 5
6.0
7.3
7. 5
7.2
4. 6
6. 6
7.6
7. 9
7. 6
6. 5
8. 5
10.0
10. 9
10. 9
7.9
11. 9
14. 1
15. 8
15. 3
70
90
98
104
98
60
78
94
107
99
62.
73.
75.
78.
75.
19.
22.
22.
24.
23.
3
3
8
5
5
34. 3
42. 8
43.8
45. 4
43. 0
21.
24.
23.
23.
22.
0
5
6
1
5
8.4
9. 4
9. 6
9. 8
9.7
19.3
6 21. 2
21. 6
22. 7
22. 1
105
109
110
112
111
109
128
118
126
122
26. 3
27. 7
46. 4
52. 3
27. 2
28. 3
10. 6
11. 3
23. 9
23. 9
120
125
128
139
8
8
4
6
5
81. 7
89. 1
9.
9.
10.
10.
10.
1
7
0
5
4
11.4
13. 0
6
12.
13.
13.
14
14.
0
0
5
1
1
15. 3
15. 8
1 Monthly average for year.
* Book value, end of year.
* Average of end-of-month book value.
* N o t available.
» Revised series on retail trade beginning 1951; not comparable with previous data.
NOTE.—Monthly data available beginning 1919 for department store indexes and beginning 1939 for all others; comparable quarterly data on manufacturing sales
and inventories from 1926 shown in April 1949 issue of Survey of Current Business (p. 16). Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
all wholesalers as reported in the 1954 Census on the
basis of the monthly movement of merchant wholesalers' inventories as reported to the Bureau of the
Census.
For retail sales, the seasonally adjusted OBE estimates are derived from dollar estimates, unadjusted
for seasonal variation, released by the Bureau of the
Census, compiled from monthly reports collected
from a probability sample representing all lands of
retail business. (Reports for department stores in
the Census Bureau sample are collected through the
Federal Reserve System.) The end-of-month inventory estimates for retail trade are derived by
OBE by extrapolation from the end-of-year figures
reported in the Census Bureau's 1951 and 1952 annual retail trade surveys. These figures are extrapolated by use of data from the Census Bureau's
monthly reports from multiunit firms and, since the
latter part of 1956, from the Census Bureau's sample
of all retail establishments; the Federal Reserve reports from department stores; and other Govern-
ment and private sources. It is expected that endof-year inventory data from the 1956 annual retail
trade survey will be introduced as the benchmark for
the series late in 1957.
Uses and limitations.—The monthly sales and inventories series are important economic indicators,
reflecting the level of economic activity at the three
major stages of the distributive process. The sales
series reflect the demand for goods and services at
these three stages, and constitute a basic measure of
the state of business for the periods covered. The
inventories series reflect the difference between output and consumption in the economy. In most past
periods of business decline and recovery,, the rate of
inventory depletion or accumulation has accounted
for a large part of the aggregate change in overall
economic activity.
The monthly estimates are tested against more
comprehensive data when those data become available at some later time. The estimates for such
aggregates as total manufacturers' sales and esti47
mates for many industry groups have in the past in order to provide data for some cities or areas
proved generally accurate, but preliminary estimates, within the districts, as well as an index for each
especially for some of the industrial detail published district as a whole.
Statistical procedures.—Reports from the individual
by the Census Bureau and OBE, have occasionally
department stores are mailed directly to the apbeen changed appreciably.
References.—Sales and inventory data for manu- propriate district bank. The U. S. indexes of
facturers, wholesale trade and retail trade, seasonally department store sales and inventories are computed
adjusted as in current issues of Economic Indicators, by weighting each of the district indexes according to
are issued first as monthly press releases by OBE the relationship of total department store sales or
and published in greater detail in the Survey of inventories in the district to the total for the United
Current Business. Comparable monthly data from States for the years 1947-49.
Relation to other series.—The Federal Reserve
1939 for manufacturing, from 1948 for wholesale
trade, and from 1951 for retail trade are available on indexes of department store sales and inventories
request to OBE. Unadjusted retail sales data are and the OBE dollar estimates of sales and inventories
also published by the Census Bureau in a separate for all types of retail establishments are not entirely
Monthly Retail Trade Report and (in cooperation with comparable. The OBE sales data include retail
OBE) in an Advance Retail Trade Report issued 10 sales taxes and retail excise taxes, whereas the
days after the close of the month. Unadjusted Federal Reserve series exclude both. Inventories
sales and inventory data for merchant wholesalers are valued at cost for the OBE series, at retail
are published by the Census Bureau in the Monthly value in the Federal Reserve series. Both the OBE
and the Federal Reserve monthly series are adjusted
Wholesale Trade Report.
More complete descriptions of the various series for seasonal variation and for the number of trading
have been presented in issues of the Survey of Current days in the month.
Uses and limitations.—Considerable use is made
Business: for Manufacturers, October 1951, October
1952, December 1953, and May 1955; for Wholesale of the Federal Reserve indexes of department store
Trade, August* 1948, October 1951, October 1952, sales and inventories, especially at the local level.
December 1953, and August 1957; and for Retail While they are valuable indicators of the relative
Trade, September and November 1952, January sales and inventory positions of this limited but
1954, and June 1957. The Bureau of the Census has important segment of retail trade, they do not reflect
also issued a description of the sample used in the the characteristics of all retail trade. In recent years
the month-to-month changes in the "retail" and
monthly retail trade report.
"department store" series have frequently moved in
opposite
directions, and even when the movements
Department Stores
have been in the same direction the magnitudes of
Description of series.—Monthly indexes of depart- the changes have been substantially different for a
ment store sales and inventories' are prepared by majority of the months.
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
References.—The indexes of department store sales
System, based on data collected and published by and inventories for the United States and for each
the 12 Federal Reserve district banks. The sales of the Federal Reserve districts are published
index relates to the average daily sales of the depart- monthly in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. Monthly
ment stores, including sales of services as well as of data for periods prior to those shown in Economic
merchandise. The inventory index relates to end- Indicators are available from the Board of Governors
of-month inventories at retail value. The selection of the Federal Reserve System. A detailed descripof the department stores from which the data are tion of the series was presented in the December 1951
collected is made by the individual district banks, issue of the Bulletin.
48
Merchandise Exports and Imports
[Monthly average, millions of dollars]
Merchandise exports
Year
Total i
Grant-aid
shipments 2
Excluding
grant-aid
shipments
Merchandise
imports
Excess of exports over
imports
Excluding
grant-aid
shipments
Total
1929
437
367
70
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
320
202
134
140
178
255
174
110
121
138
65
28
24
19
40
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
190
205
279
258
265
171
202
257
163
193
19
3
22
95
72
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
335
429
673
1,080
1, 188
219
279
230
282
327
116
150
443
798
861
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
817
812
1, 278
1, 054
1, 004
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
856
1, 253
1,267
1,314
1, 259
1955
1956
1, 296
1,590
_
(33)
()
62
411
863
942
367
262
217
247
463
54
96
354
757
1, 182
347
412
480
594
552
470
400
798
460
452
24
89
166
293
188
833
1, 164
1, 100
1, 022
1,071
738
914
893
906
851
118
339
374
408
408
95
250
207
116
220
105
146
1, 191
1,443
949
1, 051
347
538
242
392
(33)
()
88
32
-65
-80
(3)
(3)
7
345
702
1 Includes shipments under special programs such as those grant-aid programs listed in footnote 2 below as well as other grant-aid programs such as E C A (Marshall
plan); other less important programs such as surplus incentive material, reorientation and rehabilitation programs; and programs such as U N R R A , International
Refugee Organization, etc, which were grant-aid only in part.
2 Except for Army civilian supply exports for 1943-46 for which information is not available, the figures shown for 1947 and prior years include exports under
the following programs (dates shown are the approximate periods the programs were in operation): lend-lease (1941-47); Greek-Turkish aid (1947-52); United States
foreign relief (1947-48): Interim aid (1947-18); and Army civilian supply (1943-present).
Figures are not shown for the years 1948-49 because separate information on E C A (Marshall plan) economic aid exports is not available and these shipments
represented most of the grant-aid shipments during that period.
Beginning with 1950, figures include only Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the mutual security program—
the only important grant-aid program since 1950 for which separate export information is available. During this period E C A and mutual security program economic
aid exports were important, but by 1952 they were much less important than the military grant-aid exports shown. Army civilian supply shipments were also
relatively unimportant by 1952. Beginning with 1956, figures on Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the mutual
security program include direct forces support shipments. More precise information on military and other grant-aid extended to other countries by the United States
is provided in the balance of payments statistics.
3 Not available.
NOTE.—Monthly data available beginning 1S66; annual from 1790.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Description of series.—This monthly Bureau of the
Census series on exports gives the value of merchandise (except in-transit merchandise) shipped
from the United States to foreign countries. Exports
of Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico to foreign
countries are shown as United States exports.
Shipments between the United States and its
Territories and possessions are not regarded as
exports or imports. Both Government and non
Government exports are included. The former
include mutual security program, military and
economic aid, and Department of the Army civilian
supply shipments, but shipments to United States
Armed Forces and diplomatic missions abroad for
their own use are excluded. Also excluded are
exports of gold and silver, oil and coal bunkers laden
at United States ports on vessels in foreign trade,
and a number of items of relatively small importance
49
such as low-valued or noncommercial shipments by
mail and gifts valued below $100.
Except for Department of Defense shipments as
explained below, exportfiguresare obtained from the
Shippers' Export Declaration which exporters are
required tofilewith the collectors of customs. These
shipments are valued at the time and place of export—that is, actual selling price, or cost if not sold,
including inland freight, insurance and other charges
to the place of export. Transportation and other
costs beyond the United States port of exportation
are excluded. For exports made by the Department
of Defense of grant-aid military equipment and supplies under the mutual security program and for
other Department of Defense shipments such as
those under the civilian supply program, information
is compiled by the Bureau of the Census from the
records of the Department of Defense. In most
instances, these records show values f. o. b. point of
origin. These are adjusted to show value at the
United States port of exportation.
The monthly series on imports gives the value of
"general imports" into the United States, that is,
merchandise released from customs custody immediately upon arrival, plus merchandise entered into
customs bonded warehouses on arrival. As in the
case of exports, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico
are included with continental United States, and
both Government and non-Government shipments
are recorded. Similarly, the exclusions with respect
to in-transit shipments, gold and silver, and low-value
items apply.
Imports are valued in accordance with the Tariff
Act of 1930 which provides that the value of imported merchandise shall be the foreign or export
value, whichever is higher (except that foreign value
will not be applicable to imports of most commodities
after the Customs Simplification Act of 1956 becomes
fully effective). In general, import values approximate an f. o. b. exporting country basis. Transportation costs and United States customs duties
are therefore excluded. The values given in the
published statistics are those reported by importers
on the Bureau of Customs Import Entry Form.
Relation to other series.—Concurrently with the
publication of monthly totals for exports (including
reexports) and general imports, the Bureau of the
Census also shows exports of domestic merchandise
and imports for consumption. The latter includes
imports for immediate consumption, plus withdrawals for consumption from customs bonded warehouses. The "excess of exports or imports" should
50
not be confused with the more inclusive gross national
product series of "net foreign investment" (see p. 4)
and related "balance of payments" data, which
reflect unilateral transfers and nonmerchandise as
well as merchandise transactions.
Uses and limitations.—These overall series provide
accurate monthly indicators of the movement of
merchandise exports and imports. They do not distinguish between Government and non-Government
transactions. Although the exports are divided into
"Grant-aid" and "Excluding grant-aid," the latter
also includes some Government-sponsored exports,
as noted in the table. The import totals include
private shipments and those under Government
sponsorship, such as purchases of strategic materials
and reverse lend-lease. When United States trade
statistics are compared with those of other countries,
special attention needs to be given to the extent to
which the series being compared differ as to valuation
and coverage. Exports and imports of merchandise
are important components of the balance of payments
of the United States, but comprehension of the
balance of payments requires, in addition, information concerning service transactions, unilateral transfers, and movements of capital and gold.
References.—Compiled totals for exports, exports
of domestic merchandise, Department of Defense
shipments of grant-aid military equipment and supplies, general imports, and imports for consumption
are published monthly in the Census Bureau FT 900
releases. These releases (FT 900-E on "Total
Export Trade" and FT 900-1 on "Total Import
Trade") give monthly data for the preceding and
current years. Cumulative totals are provided in
the "Quarterly Summary of Foreign Commerce of
the United States," which also contains index numbers for several export and import series. Detailed
commodity by country data are also published by
the Census Bureau. A monthly pamphlet, "Foreign
Trade Statistics Notes," contains supplementary
information on such items as unusual transactions
appearing in the statistics, changes in the types of
shipments included in the statistics, special problems
of valuation, commodity classification, and the like.
A comprehensive discussion of the scope and content
of United States foreign trade and shipping statistics
is available in Foreign Commerce and Navigation of
the United States, last published in 1946. A complete list of all Census publications in the field of
foreign trade is available in the Catalog of United
States Foreign Trade Statistical Publications.
PRICES
CONSUMER PRICES
Description oj series.—The Consumer Price Index,
compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a
measure of changes in prices of goods and services
purchased by families of urban wage earners and
salaried clerical workers. The goods and services
included in the index are those required to maintain
the level of living characteristics of such families in
the year ending June 1952. These families represented about 64 percent of all people living in urban
places, and about 40 percent of the total United
States population in 1950.
The index is based upon prices collected on about
300 items in 46 cities. The 300 items were selected
by the BLS as representative of the thousands of
commodities and services purchased by families of
wage earners and salaried clerical workers, as reported in a survey conducted in 91 cities. Detailed
specifications are used for the 300 items so that,
insofar as possible, prices are obtained for articles
of the same quality in successive price periods.
Revisions in the individual specifications are made
from time to time, as former descriptions become
obsolete.
Current prices for the 300 items are collected
regularly from a list of stores and service establishments in the 46 cities. This list includes chain
stores, independent stores, department stores, specialty stores, and public utilities, selected by BLS as
representative of the types of outlets in which wageearner and clerical-worker families make their purchases. Prices are also collected on such items as
physicians' and dentists' fees, hospital rates, and
beauty-parlor services. Sales and excise taxes are
included in the retail prices for commodities on which
they are imposed. Property taxes are included in
the cost of homeownership, and implicitly included
in rental costs. The index does not include income
taxes or social security taxes.
Prices are collected at intervals ranging from every
month to every third month. For some goods and
services—such as foods, streetcar and bus fares, and
a few other important items—prices are collected
monthly in each of the 46 cities. For other goods
and services, prices are collected every month (except
for rent, which is priced every second month) in the
5 largest cities and every third month in the other
41 cities. Pricing of these goods and services in the
41 cities is on a rotating cycle, so that several cities
of each size group are priced each month. Between
the periodic pricing periods in a given city, the price
change for unpriced groups of these items is estimated for use in the computation of the monthly
national index.
Prices for practically all of the commodities and
most of the services are collected by personal interview. A few prices (e. g., public utility rates and
fuel prices) are collected by mail.
In addition to the national index, separate indexes
are computed for the 20 largest of the 46 cities—
monthly for the 5 largest and quarterly for the
other 15.
A major revision of this series was introduced with
the release of the January 1953 index. The principal changes from the old series were: (1) change in
the weighting pattern to reflect current purchasing
habits; \2) change in the list of items priced to reflect
current purchasing habits; (3) increase in the number
of items priced from about 225 to about 300, including for the first time used cars, home purchase and
maintenance, and restaurant meals; (4) revision and
expansion of the list of cities in which prices are collected, to reflect price changes affecting wage-earner
and clerical-worker families in all urban areas; and
(5) change of the base period of the index from 193539 to 1947-49.
For the years shown in the accompanying table,
for 1929 the weights used are averages representing
1917-19 and 1934-36 expenditures; for 1930^9
the weights used are 1934-36 expenditures; for
1950-52, estimates of 1950 expenditure patterns;
and from 1953 to date, estimated expenditure patterns for the year ending June 1952. With the
introduction of the 1934-36 weighting pattern, in
1940, a modified weighting pattern was carried
back to smooth the transition, but this was not
done when the 1950 weighting pattern was introduced in 1951 or when the fiscal year 1952 weighting pattern was introduced in January 1953. In
these instances the new weights were linked into the
index as of a single month.
Statistical procedures.—The purpose of the index
is to show how much more or less it would cost to
purchase the same quantities and qualities of goods
and services in one period than in an earlier period.
The first step in the index computation is to calculate,
for each city, a price relative for each item by comparing the sum of the prices reported for that particular item from the same retail outlets in the
current and preceding periods. This relative change
for the item is next multiplied by the estimated cost
51
in the preceding period for a fixed quantity of the The ''fixed market basket" represents the average
item. (The fixed quantity, or weight, for each item quantities bought by all wage-earner and clericalis determined by the average annual quantities of worker families, and is not necessarily representative
that item purchased by urban wage-earner and cleri- of the purchases made by any single family.
The city indexes indicate the difference in the rate
cal-worker families in the year ending June 1952,
plus the purchases of those unpriced commodities it of price movement in the various cities, but should
represents in the index.) These calculations are then not be used to compare price levels in one city with
totaled for all items in a group—all food items, for those in another. For instance, if the index for city
example, are combined into a total showing the food A is 113 and that for city B is 115, it does not
cost for the fixed quantities in the current period. necessarily follow that prices are higher in city B
This total is compared with the food total for the than in city A, since the base-period prices may have
preceding period to give a measure of the average been higher in city A. These indexes do show that
price change for all foods, from which the index prices have increased more rapidly since the base
number of food for each city is computed. Similar period in city B than in city A.
Although efforts are made to minimize the effects of
calculations are made for apparel, rent, and all other
quality changes on the "fixed market basket," it
groups of items priced.
The national index is calculated by combining the is impossible in any index to measure these effects
city totals, with weights based on the 1950 popula- with complete accuracy.
tion of urban wage-earner and clerical-worker
References.—The basic release of the index is the
families. Two-fifths of the weight is carried by the report entitled "Consumer Price Index/' issued by
12 largest cities; one-fifth by the 9 cities selected to the Bureau of Labor Statistics toward the end of the
represent the 42 cities with populations of 240,000 to month following the month to which the figures
1,000,000; one-fifth by the 9 cities selected to repre- relate. The periodic indexes—semiannual, quarsent the 216 cities with populations of 30,500 to terly or monthly—for periods earlier than those
240,000; and one-fifth by the 16 small cities selected shown in current issues of Economic Indicators are
to represent the 2,527 towns with populations rang- available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics upon
from 2,500 to 30,500.
request. Quarterly indexes are available upon reUses and limitations.—-The index is designed to quest for selected groups of items and for individual
measure onl}T those changes in the spending of urban commodities and services (except foods and fuels);
families which result from changes in prices, not monthly indexes and average prices are available for
those which result from changes in purchasing individual food and fuel items. A detailed descriphabits or standards of living. Also, it measures tion of the procedures, uses and limitations of the
price changes for only a limited population group: index is presented in "The Consumer Price Index—A
the families of wage earners and salaried clerical Layman's Guide" (BLS Bulletin 1140); in Techniques
workers living in urban areas. Other qualities of of Preparing Major BLS Statistical Series (BLS
commodities and weights would have to be used to Bulletin 1168); and in an article in the February 1953
measure price changes for other groups, such as issue of the Monthly Labor Review.
farm families, single workers, retired people, etc.
52
Consumer Prices
[1947-49 = 100]
Year
All
items
Food
Housing
Total
1
Apparel
Kent
Transportation
Medical
care
Personal
care
Reading
and
recreation
Other
goods
and
services
(2)
(2)
(22)
(2)
()
(2)
(2)
(2)
(22)
(2)
()
(2)
(2)
(2)
(22)
(2)
()
(2)
(2)
1929
73. 3
65. 6
(2)
117. 4
60. 3
(2)
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
71.
65.
58.
55.
57.
4
0
4
3
2
62.
51.
42.
41.
46.
4
4
8
6
4
(2)
(22)
(2)
()
(2)
114.
108.
97.
83.
78.
2
2
1
6
4
58.
53.
47.
45.
50.
9
6
5
9
2
(2)
(22)
(2)
()
(2)
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
58.
59.
61.
60.
59.
7
3
4
3
4
49.
50.
52.
48.
47.
7
1
1
4
1
71.
72.
75.
76.
76.
8
8
4
6
1
78.2
80. 1
83. 8
86. 5
86. 6
50.
51.
53.
53.
52.
6
0
7
4
5
69.
70.
71.
71.
70.
6
2
3
9
2
71.
71.
72.
72.
72.
4
6
3
5
6
54. 6
55. 3
58.5
59. 8
59. 6
58.
59.
60.
62.
63.
1
1
8
9
0
67.
67.
68.
69.
70.
2
0
8
4
6
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
59.
62.
69.
74.
75.
9
9
7
0
2
47.
52.
61.
68.
67.
8
2
3
3
4
76.
78.
81.
82.
84.
4
3
8
8
7
86.
88.
90.
90.
90.
9
4
4
3
6
53.
55.
64.
67.
72.
2
6
9
8
6
69.
72.
78.
78.
78.
8
2
5
2
2
72.
73.
75.
78.
81.
7
1
1
7
2
59.
61.
66.
73.
79.
5
0
9
8
0
64.
66.
69.
75.
83.
1
4
5
3
4
72.
74.
76.
80.
82.
8
2
3
2
4
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
76.
83.
95.
102.
101.
9
4
5
8
8
68.
79.
95.
104.
100.
9
0
9
1
0
86.
88.
95.
101.
103.
1
3
0
7
3
90.
91.
94.
100.
105.
9
4
4
7
0
76.
83.
97.
103.
99.
3
7
1
5
4
78.
82.
90.
100.
108.
1
1
6
9
5
83.
87.
94.
100.
104.
1
7
9
9
1
81.
87.
97.
101.
101.
5
4
6
3
1
86.
89.
95.
100.
104.
8
7
5
4
1
85.
88.
96.
100.
103.
7
6
1
5
4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
102.
111.
113.
114.
114.
8
0
5
4
8
101.
112.
114.
112.
112.
2
6
6
8
6
106.
112.
114.
117.
119.
1
4
6
7
1
108.
113.
117.
124.
128.
8
1
9
1
5
98.
106.
105.
104.
104.
1
9
8
8
3
111.
118.
126.
129.
128.
3
4
2
7
0
106.
111.
117.
121.
125.
0
1
2
3
2
101.
110.
111.
112.
113.
1
5
8
8
4
103.
106.
107.
108.
107.
4
5
0
0
0
105.
109.
115.
118.
120.
2
7
4
2
1
1955
1956
114. 5
116. 2
110. 9
111. 7
120. 0
121. 7
130. 3
132. 7
103. 7
105. 5
126. 4
128. 7
128. 0
132. 6
115. 3
120. 0
(22)
()
(22)
()
(2)
106. 6
108. 1
120. 2
122. 0
i Includes, in addition to rent, homeowner costs, utilities, liouscfurnishings, etc.
' Not available.
NOTE.—Indexes for " a l l items" and " f o o d " are available monthly from 1913; for " r e n t , " semiannually orquarterly from ^
T ^
from October 1940 through September 1944, quarterly from December 1944 through September 1946 and monthly roin January 1947 to
'
annually or quarterly from 1919 through September 1S&0, and monthly from October 1940 to date; for " transportation," quarterly from 19oo through 1946 and monthly
from 1947 to date; and for all other groups, monthly from January 1947 to date.Source: Department of Labor.
53
WHOLESALE PRICES
Description of series.—The Wholesale Price Index,
compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a
measure of the general rate and direction of the
composite of price movements in primary markets,
and of the specific rates and directions of price
movements for individual commodities and groups
of commodities.
The index is based on price quotations for approximately 2,000 commodities selected to represent all
commodities sold on primary markets in the United
States. All types of commodities, from raw materials to fabricated products, are included in the
index. For commodities traded on organized exchanges, such as livestock and grains, the quotations
are furnished by the exchanges or Government
agencies, or are taken from published sources. For
some standardized commodities, such as certain
chemicals and specified constructions of cotton gray
goods, quotations are taken from authoritative trade
publications. For the majority of fabricated products, prices are reported to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics by producers. Prices are quoted at the
level of thefirstcommercial transaction, and, for each
commodity, the reporter is requested to quote the
price which he charges to the channel of distribution
to which he sells the largest volume of this particular
commodity. The prices relate to a particular day of
the month—-usually Tuesday of the week containing the 15 th.
Initial contacts with manufacturers to solicit their
cooperation in reporting prices on specified commodities are made by personal interview; subsequent
price reports are mailed to Washington by the reporting firm. Insofar as possible, identical qualities of
the commodities are priced from period to period
so that the index will measure only real price changes,
not changes due to differences in qualities or terms
of sale. To the extent that identical qualities are not
available in successive periods, the index may not
accurately measure real price changes because no
technique has been developed for measuring objectively the monetary value of such changes.
A major revision of this index was introduced with
release of the January 1952 index. The principal
changes from the old series were: (1) increase in the
number of items priced, from approximately 900 to
about 2,000; (2) change in the basis for weights from
average value of shipments for sale in 1929-31 to 1947
averages; (3) change of the base period from 1926 to
1947-49; and (4) modification of the classification
system. The weighting diagram was again brought
up to date with the release of the final index for
54
January 1955, using average value of shipments for
sale for 1952-53.
The relative importance of the groups, subgroups,
and items in the index at any one period depends on
the relation of the value aggregates as of that period.
As of December 1954, using the 1952-53 weights,
the relative importance of "Farm products" was
10.8, of "Processed foods" 13.7, and of "Other than
farm products and foods" (machinery, nonmetallic
minerals, fuels, etc.) 75.5.
In addition to the comprehensive index, indexes
are released each month for 15 major groups, such
as farm products and processed foods; 86 subgroups,
such as grains and cotton products; about 250 product classes; and most of the individual series. BLS
also publishes monthly 20 special group indexes (e. g.,
building materials) and 34 economic sector indexes
(e. g., crude materials for further processing, components for manufacturing). In the economic sector
indexes, commodities are divided among three categories: (1) raw materials; (2) intermediate materials
for further processing, components and supplies; and
(3) finished goods. Each of these is further subdivided according to end-use and durability.
Statistical procedures.—Basically, the same statistical method is used in computing the Wholesale
Price Index and the Consumer Price Index. The
individual price series are combined into the index
by multiplying the value weight" assigned each item
by its current price relative, and summing to obtain
the current aggregate. The current aggregates are
totaled by product classes, subgroups, groups, and
all commodities. The current index for each of these
is obtained by dividing the current aggregate by the
appropriate value weight in the base period.
Each commodity price series in the index, as
representative of prices for a group of commodities,
is assigned its own direct weight (the value of the
shipments for sale of that individual commodity),
plus the weight of other commodities it was selected
to represent in the index. Weights for commodities
not priced for the index are assigned to commodities
which are priced on the basis of similarity of price
movements if data are available for making such determinations. When data are not available for such
determinations, BLS obtains advice from industry
and other experts on what commodity or group of
commodities which is priced has a price movement
most similar to that of the unpriced commodity, and
assignments are made on the basis of these recommendations.
Relation to other series.—The BLS publishes a
Wholesale Prices
[1947-49=100]
Year
All commodities
Farm
products
Processed
foods
1929.
61.9
58.6
58.5
1930.
1931
1932,
1933
1934
56. 1
47.4
42. 1
42. 8
48. 7
49.3
36.2
26.9
28. 7
36.5
53.3
44. 8
36.5
36.3
42. 6
1935
1936
1937,
1938,
1939,
52. 0
52.5
56. 1
51. 1
50. 1
44. 0
45.2
48. 3
38.3
36.5
52. 1
50. 1
52.4
45. 6
43.3
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
51. 1
56.8
64. 2
67.0
67. 6
37.8
46.0
59.2
68.5
68.9
43. 6
50. 5
59. 1
61. 6
60.4
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
68. 8
78. 7
96.4
104. 4
99.2
71. 6
83.2
100.0
107.3
92.8
77. 6
98.2
106. 1
95.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
103. 1
114. 8
111. 6
110. 1
110.3
97.5
113.4
107.0
97.0
95.6
99.8
111. 4
108. 8
104 6
105. 3
1955
1956
110.7
114.3
89.6
88.4
101. 7
101.7
NOTE.—Monthly indexes available for most groups from January 1928 on the 1947-49=100 b a ^ .
groups from 1890 and for subgroups from 1913 on tne 1926=* 100 base.
Other than
farm products
and foods
60.8
Monthly indexes available for "all commodities" and major
Source: Department of Labor.
weekly index of wholesale prices based on that week's
prices for a small sample (about 200) of the commodities included in the monthly index and an estimate of prices for all other commodities. The
weekly index is calculated as an estimated percentage
change from the latest published monthly comprehensive index. The weeldy index is not maintained
as a continuous series.
Uses and limitations.—The index is based for the
most part on producers' prices; therefore, it should
not be used as a measure of price change at the
wholesale market level. "Wholesale" as used in the
title of this index refers to sales in large lots, not to
prices paid or received by wholesalers, jobbers, or
distributors.
A comparison of the movement of the subgroup
indexes of the Wholesale Price Index and the Consumer Price Index should not be used as a measure
of the change in retailers' margins for the specified
groups of commodities, mainly because the two
indexes are based on different weighting patterns
and the lists of commodities priced are not identical.
The index is designed to measure real price
changes; that is, changes which are not occasioned
by changes in quality, quantity, terms of sale, etc.
It is not designed to measure changes in manufacturers' average realized prices which are affected by
product mix and terms of sale as well as by price
movements.
References.—The basic release of the index is the
report entitled "Wholesale (Primary Market) Price
Index," issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
during the second week of the month following the
month to which thefiguresrelate. Monthly indexes
for periods earlier than those shown in current issues
of Economic Indicators are available from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics upon request. A detailed
description of the index and its uses and limitations
is presented in the February 1952 Monthly Labor
Review (Reprint No. R. 2067) and in Techniques of
Preparing Major BLS Statistical Series (Bulletin
1168), December 1954.
55
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Relation to other series.—The index described here
should not be confused with the farm-product comDescription of series.—The Index of Prices Re- ponent of the Wholesale Price Index. There are
ceived by Farmers is computed by the Agricultural significant differences. The Index of Prices ReMarketing Service (AMS) of the Department of ceived by Farmers measures changes in prices at the
Agriculture as a measure of the change from month point of first sale, and is based on average prices for
to month in average prices of farm products. It is all grades .of a given commodity. The Wholesale
based on average prices received for all grades and Price Index, on the other hand, measures prices in
qualities of the important agricultural commodities selected central markets, and is based on average
at the point of first sale—generally the local mar- prices of specific grades or qualities. Furthermore,
ket—about the middle of the month.
commodities traded among farmers never enter into
The index is based on prices for 52 commodities wholesale trade. Finally, there are differences in
which account for about 92 percent of the total cash the weights and base periods used in the two indexes.
receipts from marketings of all farm commodities
Uses and limitations.—The index is widely used as
for which data are available. The price data are a measure of changes in average prices received by
obtained chiefly by mail on a voluntary basis from farmers for commodities sold in local markets. It is
buyers of farm products (e. g., country mills and used in the computation of adjusted base-period
elevators, creameries and milk plants, cooperative prices, Avhich are needed in calculating parity prices
marketing organizations, and local dealers) and other under the formula prescribed by the Agricultural
persons with a knowledge of farm product prices (for Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended.
example, local bankers and well informed farmers).*
The Index of Prices Received by Farmers is deIn addition to the overall index for "all farm prod- signed to measure the change in average prices for
ucts/' indexes are prepared for "all crops" and 9 sub- all grades and qualities of the products sold by
groups and for "livestock and products" and 4 sub- farmers. Therefore the price changes it shows are
groups. Five of these subgroup indexes (fruit; not necessarily a measure of price changes for specific
commercial vegetables; potatoes, sweetpotatoes, and grades, as they may also reflect changes in the grades
dry edible beans; dairy products; and poultry and or qualities sold.
eggs) are published also on a seasonally adjusted
As noted above, the index is based on commodities
basis.
which account for about 92 percent of the total value
Statistical procedures.—Weights based on averageof all commodities farmers have to sell. Adequate
quantities sold during 1937-41 have been used since marketing and price data are not available for the
January 1935 to combine the United States average other 8 percent (timber and other forest products,
prices for individual commodities into subgroup greenhouse products, and a number of miscellaneous
indexes. In combining the subgroup indexes into and minor commodities), but these omissions are not
group and all-commodity indexes, the index numbers significant with respect to the index as a whole.
are weighted by the percentage ratio that cash reReferences.—See below, under Parity Index.
ceipts from marketings for the particular commodity
subgroups bears to total cash receipts for the same
Parity Index
period—1937-41. The subgroup and group indexes
are then converted from the 1937-41 to a 1910-14=
Description of series.—The "Index of Prices Paid
100 base for publication purposes, as required by law. by Farmers for Commodities and Services, Including
Revisions have been made in the index series from Interest, Taxes, and Wage Rates" (common^ called
time to time, mainly involving revisions in basic the Parity Index) is computed by the Agricultural
price series or changes in weights. A major revision Marketing Service (AMS) of the Department of
in January 1950 put the index on a basis more con- Agriculture. It is a measure of the changes in prices
sistent with that of the Parity Index, improved the paid by farm families for a list of commodities and
weighting structure, and made minor changes in services used in family living and farm production.
commodity coverage. The index was also revised
The index is composed of five major groups: (1)
in January 1954 to incorporate revisions in the com- prices paid for items used in family living, accounting
ponent price series and to reflect some revisions in for 44.0 percent of the total weight for the period
the 1937^1 weight data.
since March 1935; (2) prices paid for items used in.
Prices Received by Farmers
56
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Prices received by farmers
Year
All farm
products
Crops
Livestock
and
products
Prices paid by farmers
All items,
interest, ,
taxes, and
wage rates
(parity
index)
Family
living
items
Production
items
Parity
ratio 1
Index, 1910-14=100
1929
148
135
159
160
154
146
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
125
87
65
70
90
115
75
57
71
98
134
98
72
70
81
151
130
112
109
120
144
124
106
108
122
135
113
99
99
114
109
114
122
97
95
103
108
118
80
82
114
119
126
112
107
124
124
131
124
123
124
124
128
122
120
122
122
132
122
121
100
124
159
2 193
2 197
90
108
145
187
199
109
138
171
198
196
124
133
152
171
182
121
130
149
166
175
123
130
148
164
173
2 207
2 236
276
287
250
202
228
263
255
224
211
242
288
315
272
190
208
240
260
251
182
202
237
251
243
176
191
224
250
238
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
258
302
288
258
249
233
265
268
242
242
280
336
306
272
255
256
282
287
279
281
246
268
271
270
274
246
273
274
253
252
1955
1956
236
235
236
240
236
230
281
286
273
278
249
249
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
„
i
1940
1941
1942.
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947..
1948
1949
1
1
_
„
.
2
2
2
2
Percentage ratio of Index of Prices Received by Farmers to Index of Prices Paid, Including Interest, Taxes, and Wage Hates.
Includes wartime subsidies paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.
NOTE.—For the Index of Prices Received by Farmers, monthly and annual data available from January 1910; for the Indexes of Prices Paid, annual data available
from 1910, quarterly from 1923, and monthly from January 1937.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
farm production, 41.2 percent; (3) interest on indebtedness secured by farm mortgages, 3.0 percent; (4)
taxes on farm real estate, 3.8 percent; and (5) rates
of wages paid hired farm labor, S.O percent. As of
June 1957, the index of prices paid for items used in
family living included price series for 191 commodities
and services, and that for items used in farm production included 199, with 40 scries being used in both
indexes.
The most recent revision of the index was intro
duced with the release of the January 1950 series.
The principal changes in the revised series were: (1)
addition of an index of cash wage rates paid to hired
farm labor; (2) adoption of a weighting pattern based
on farmers' purchasing habits during the period
1937-41, in place of 1924-29, for the period subsequent to March 1935; and (3) increase in the number
of items included in the current index from about 175
to about 350. A further revision of the index is
contemplated for introduction late in 1958, using a
more up-to-date weighting pattern derived from a
nationwide survey of farm expenditures conducted
in early 1956 and incorporating a limited number of
additional items.
Statistical procedures.—-The index of prices paid by
farmers for commodities and services is based upon
prices of commodities reported by chain and independent stores and costs of electricity and telephone
services reported by farmers. Beginning in March
1953 the index has been based on price information
57
collected monthly from chain stores and quarterly
from independent stores. Price changes for the independent stores in interquarterly months are estimated largely from changes in chain-store prices.
Information on average costs of electricity and telephone services is obtained in an annual survey of
20,000 farmers. The base period 1910-14 is set by
law.
Price reports from independent dealers are mailed
to the AMS State offices, where average prices for
the State are calculated for each item. Chain-store
prices are reported directly to the Washington office
of AMS, where they are combined with the appropriate State averages of independent-store prices.
Final estimates by States and commodities are then
combined into national averages for each item by
weighting each State price estimate by an estimate
of the amount of that commodity purchased by
farmers in that State. These estimates of purchases
are based upon the distribution of farm population,
farm income, and other available information.
From the national averages for each item the AMS
computes subgroup indexes for 15 types of expenditures. Six of these subgroup indexes (food and
tobacco, clothing, autos and auto supplies, household
operations, household furnishings, and building materials for houses) are combined into the index of prices
paid by farmers for items used in family living; and
9 of the subgroup indexes (feed, livestock, motor
supplies, motor vehicles, farm machinery, building
and fencing materials, fertilizer and lime, equipment
and supplies, and seed) are combined into the index
of prices paid for items used in farm production.
These two group indexes of prices paid for items
used in family living and farm production are then
combined with the indexes for interest, taxes, and
wage rates to form the Parity Index. The index of
interest charges is developed annually on the basis of
data obtained from lending agencies and special
surveys. The tax index is developed annually from
data obtained in special surveys. The wage-rate
index is based on information collected in a quarterly
mail survey of farmers.
Relation to other series.—The index of prices paid
by farmers for family-living items is frequently used
with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to compare
the movement of retail prices as they affect farmers
and urban workers, respectively. Even though in
some periods the movements of the two indexes have,
been quite similar, there are important differences
58
between the two indexes which on occasion give rise
to differences in movements. Some of the principal
differences are:
1. The lists of commodities included in the two
indexes are not identical, and different weights are
used for individual commodities, since the CPI is
based on the purchasing habits of urban families and
the farm family-living index on those of farm
families.
2. All expenditures for commodities and services
purchased by urban families are represented in the
weights for the CPI, whereas certain types of
expenditures are not included in the weights for the
index of farm family-living expenses. For example,
services (medical care, utilities, public transportation, personal care, etc.) carry a relatively heavy
weight in the CPI; but only telephone and electricity
costs are represented in the farm family-living index.
Since few farmers rent homes other than those that
are rented with the farm, the farm family-living
index does not include residential rents. The CPI
weights include all costs of homeownership—purchase, repairs and maintenance, and insurance;
whereas only the costs of building materials for houses
are represented in the farm family-living index.
3. Although both the CPI and the farm familyliving index are composed of a fixed list of items for
any two successive dates, the CPI is designed to
measure price changes in successive periods for
specified qualities of the items, while the Index of
Prices Paid by Farmers is designed to measure
average prices for those qualities of each item which
are currently purchased in greatest volume by
farmers. These qualities may change in response to
changing levels of farm income or to changes in
qualities commonly stocked by merchants.
Uses and limitations.—The "Index of Prices Paid
by Farmers for Commodities and Services, Including
Interest, Taxes, and Wage Rates" is based for the
most part upon data relating to the middle of a given
month. It constitutes the Parity Index for the following month: that is, it is used to compute parity
prices of individual commodities, in accordance with
statutory formulae, for administrative uses during
the month following that to which the prices-paid
data relate. Agricultural support programs are in
many cases based on these parity prices.
The indexes of prices paid by farmers for items
used in family living and in farm production may be
affected somewhat by changes in qualities purchased, Agriculture (Miscellaneous Publication No. 703 of
and therefore do not necessarily measure changes in the Department of Agriculture).
prices of particular grades of commodities.
References.—The Parity Index and the Index of Parity Ratio
Prices Received by Farmers are published monthly
by AMS in Agricultural Prices. Supplement 1 to
The Parity Ratio is computed by dividing the
Agricultural Prices for May 1956 presents monthly Index of Prices Received by Farmers by the Index
series from January 1910 to March 1956, and revi- of Prices Paid, Including Interest, Taxes, and Wage
sions and later data appear in May issues in succeed- Rates. It measures whether the prices farmers reing years. A detailed description of the price series ceive for farm products are on the average higher or
is presented in The Agricultural Estimating and Relower in relation to the prices they pay for goods and
porting Services of the United States Department of
services than they were in the base period, 1910-14.
59
CURRENCY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS
Description of series.—These series measure the of this presentation of "Currency and deposits" is
supply of several types of assets of the highest somewhat narrower than that of the Federal Reserve
liquidity, which have in varying degrees attributes tabulation of deposits and currency. The latter
associated with "money." The aggregate of "Total presents the data in somewhat more detail, and
deposits and currency" includes the holdings of includes in addition seasonally adjusted series for
States and political subdivisions but excludes those "Demand deposits adjusted" and "Currency outof banks. Further details as to precise coverage are side banks."
The aggregate of deposits and currency as a measgiven in the footnotes. The table is derived from a
more inclusive Federal Reserve tabulation of deposits ure of "money supply" is to be distinguished from
and currency, which covers in addition cash held by the well-known Treasury figure for "money in circulation." The latter is a much smaller aggregate
the Treasury and net deposits due to foreign banks.
Monthly estimates are for the final Wednesday covering paper money and coin outside the Treasury
of the month, except that the June and December and Federal Reserve banks. It is not identical with
estimates are later replaced by reported figures as the figure given here for "currency outside banks,"
which excludes the relatively small amount of cash
of the last day of the month.
Statistical procedures.—The aggregate of depositsheld by commercial and savings banks.
This table, and the more detailed Federal Reserve
and currency consists primarily of deposits, both
demand and time, in commercial banks. Monthly deposits and currency table, are derived from data
estimates of these commercial bank deposits are in general available in other banking or Treasury
prepared in approximately the same manner as the statistics. Because of adjustments and special
estimates of loans and investments for "all commer- groupings of items, however, the component series
cial banks," as explained below in the following of these two tables cannot necessarily be identified
section on Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves. precisely with series found elsewhere.
Uses and limitations.—The data on deposits and
Data for the "weekly reporting member banks" are
combined with monthly reports from other com- currency permit an adequate measurement of the
mercial member banks, and an estimate is made for level and general trend of the supply of these types
nonmember banks on the basis of the reports from of highly liquid assets. Changes in the supply of
the "country" (generally smaller) member banks. these assets are important factors affecting the funcSemiannual "all bank" figures later replace the tioning of the economic system. Also important,
Wednesday figures for June and December. The although not reflected in the figures given here, are
monthly estimate for deposits in mutual savings changes in the rate of use of the supply of assets, as
banks, which are largely outside the Federal Reserve shown in part in the monthly series published by
System, is based on monthly statistics of the National Federal Reserve on the annual rate of turnover of
Association of Mutual Savings Banks covering the demand deposits.
bulk of mutual savings banks deposits. Postal
References.—The currency and deposits data are
Savings figures are obtained monthly from the Post adapted from the monthly Federal Reserve table
Office Department. Preliminaryfiguresfor Govern- entitled "Consolidated Condition Statement for
ment bank deposits are estimates based on the Banks and the Monetary System," which appears
Treasury Daily Statement, subject to later correction first in the release G.7 (c), approximately 5 weeks
for June and December dates on the basis of bank after the end of the period, showing changes from
records. Currency outside banks is based on the the previous month and a year ago. The table is
Treasury figures for currency held outside the Treas- presented in more detail in the Federal Reserve
ury and the Federal Reserve System, from which are Bulletin, with monthly data for the preceding 13
deducted monthly estimates of cash held by the months, and its basis is discussed in the Bulletin for
commercial and savings banks.
January 1948. Historical data to 1892 are available
Relation to other series.—As noted above, the scopein Banking and Monetary Statistics.
60
Currency and Deposits
[Billions of dollars]
Total excluding U. S. Government deposits 2
End of year
Total deposits and
currency
IT. S. Government
deposits 1
Demand deposits and currency
Total
Time
deposits 3
Demand
deposits
adjusted 4
Total
Currency
outside
banks
1929
54 7
0. 2
54 6
28. 2
26. 4
22. 8
3. 6
1930
1931
1932_
1933
1934
53. 6
48.4
45. 4
42. 6
48. 1
. 3
. 5
.5
1. 0
1. 8
53.
47.
44.
41.
46.
2
9
9
5
3
28.
26.
24.
21.
23.
7
0
5
7
2
24
21.
20.
19.
23.
6
9
4
8
1
21.
17.
15.
15.
18.
0
4
7
0
5
3.
4
4
4
4
6
5
7
8
7
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
52.
57.
56.
59.
64.
7
6
8
9
7
1. 5
1. 2
1. 0
1.8
1.5
51.
56.
55.
58.
63.
3
4
8
1
3
24
25.
26.
26.
27.
2
4
2
3
1
27.
31.
29.
31.
36.
0
0
6
8
2
22.
25.
24
26.
29.
1
5
0
0
8
4
5.
5.
5.
6.
9
5
6
8
4
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
71.
79.
100.
123.
151.
1
1
5
4
4
1. 1
2.8
9. 2
11.0
21.2
70. 0
76.3
91. 3
112. 4
130. 2
27.
27.
28.
32.
39.
7
7
4
7
8
42.
48.
62.
79.
90.
3
6
9
6
4
34
39.
48.
60.
66.
9
0
9
8
9
18. 8
23. 5
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
176.
167.
172.
172.
173.
4
5
3
7
9
25.
3.
2.
3.
4
6
5
3
6
1
150. 8
164 0
170.0
169. 1
169. 8
48.
54
56.
57.
58.
5
0
4
5
6
102.
110.
113.
111.
111.
3
0
6
6
2
75.
83.
87.
85.
85.
9
3
1
5
8
26.
26.
26.
26.
25.
5
7
5
1
4
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
180.
189.
200.
205.
214.
6
9
4
7
8
3.
3.
5.
4.
5.
7
9
6
8
1
176.9
186.0
194 8
200. 9
209. 7
59.
61.
65.
70.
75.
2
5
8
4
3
117.
124.
129.
130.
134
7
5
0
5
4
92.
98.
101.
102.
106.
3
2
15
5
6
25.
26.
27.
28.
27.
4
3
5
1
9
1955„
1956
221. 0
226. 4
4. 4
4 5
216. 6
222. 0
78. 4
82. 2
138. 2
139. 7
109. 9
111, 4
7. 3
9. 6
ia 9
28. 3
28. 3
1 Includes U . S. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks; beginning with 1938, includes United States Treasurer's time
deposits, open account.
s Includes deposits and currency held by State and local governments.
* Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits and postal savings redeposited in
banks.
* Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U . S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
NOTE.—Monthly data available beginning 1943; annual from 1892.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
61
BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Description of series.—"Commercial banks" are in regulations, measured as a percent of deposit liability
general distinguished from other lending institutions and varying with the type of deposit and the classiby the fact that they accept deposits subject to check fication of the bank. "Excess" reserves are member
or withdrawal on demand. They number approxi- bank deposits maintained at the Reserve bank in
mately 13,600. Mutual savings banks are not in- excess of the required minimum.
Statistical procedures.—The "All commercial
cluded, nor are savings and loan associations or, in
general, any other "banking" institutions which do banks" and "Weekly reporting member banks"
series are closely related. The weekly series is
not receive demand deposits.
"Member banks" of the Federal Reserve System based on weekly reports filed with Federal Reserve
are with few exceptions commercial banks. They banks and compiled cooperatively by these banks
comprise approximately 4,700 nationally chartered and the Board of Governors. Published figures are
banks ("national banks") plus about 1,800 State- simple aggregates for the reporting banks. The
chartered banks, which are members of the Federal monthly estimates for all commercial banks are
Reserve System. Member banks account currently prepared, also by the Federal Reserve System, on
for about 85 percent of the total loans and invest- the basis of the weekly reports, monthly reports from
all other member banks, and other information.
ments of commercial banks.
The "Weekly reporting member banks" comprise Estimates are made for nonmember banks, accountsome 400 selected member commercial banks in (or ing currently for about 16 percent of commercialwith head offices in) approximately 100 cities, ac- bank credit, on the basis of the relationship between
counting currently for over half of the total com- the movement of "country" member banks (those
mercial banking loans and investments. The cities outside the major cities) and that of the nonmember
are the more important banking centers within each banks, as determined semiannually when complete
Federal Reserve district; and within each city the reports for the banking system are available. The
banks constitute a voluntary sample, usually ac- June and December estimates are later replaced by
counting for over 90 percent of member bank re- "benchmark" figures for all commercial banks.
sources. The coverage of the weekly series was last These benchmarks are compiled by the Federal
substantially revised in 1947 and carried back 1 year, Deposit Insurance Corporation on the basis of comwith an increase of about 15 percent in loans and pulsory "call reports" filed by all banks subject to
investments of reporting banks. More recent minor Federal supervision (national banks, State member
banks, and nonmember insured banks) with one or
revisions affect the data from March 1952.
The category of "Loans" reported for all com- another of the Federal bank supervisory agencies,
mercial banks covers all loans and discounts includ- and of information obtained from State banking
ing open market paper. The "Business loan" cate- authorities and other sources for the relatively few
gory for the weekly reporting banks is a major com- uninsured banks. These final June and December
ponent of total loans. Although it includes com- figures, being normally for a day other than Wednesmercial and industrial loans (and agricultural loans day, replace the earlier estimates. Interim monthly
prior to 1956), it does not cover loans to business or estimates are revised only when some substantial
agricultural enterprises if secured by real estate or error of estimate is suggested by the benchmarks.
for the purpose of purchasing or carrying securities.
Prior to 1947 each of the Federal supervisory
Monthly estimates for business loans of all com- agencies prepared separately a series of semiannual
mercial banks are not available, but the weekly re- "all-bank" statistics. Since 1947 a single series has
porting banks currently account for about 70 percent by agreement been prepared by the FDIC. The
of all such loans.
Federal Reserve monthly estimates for all commercial
Monthly figures shown for commercial banks and banks have been published only since 1948.
weekly reporting member banks are as of the last
The series on required and excess reserves and
Wednesday of the month except that final June and member-bank borrowing are based on reports of
December figures for "All commercial banks" are as deposits, reserves, and borrowing from all member
of the last day of the month.
banks, filed semimonthly or more frequently, de"Required reserve balances" for member banks pending on the class of bank.
are the minimum amount of deposits required to be
Relation to other series.—The Federal Government
maintained by member banks at their respective publishes a variety of statistical series covering all or
Federal Reserve banks pursuant to Federal Reserve part of the banking system. For purposes of general
62
Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves
[Billions of dollars]
All commercial banks
Total
loans
and
investments
End of period 1
1929
Weekly
reporting
member
banks
Investments
Loans
Total
49. 4
35. 7
U. S. Government
securities
13. 7
Other
securities
4.9
Business
loans 2
AU member banks
Reserve balances
Required
Excess
8.7
(4)
2. 3
2. 3
2. 2
1.9
• 1. 8
6 2. 1
0. 1
. 1
. 3
5
•1. 6
5. 1
4. 2
4. 7
2. 5
3. 5
5. 6
5. 4
6.0
2.
2.
1.
2.
4
3
Borrowings at
Federal
Reserve
Banks
(5)
0.9
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
48.9
44.9
36. 1
30. 4
32. 7
34. 5
29. 2
21. 8
16.3
15.7
14.4
15.7
14 3
14 0
17.0
5.0
6.0
6.2
7.5
10.3
9.4
9. 7
8. 1
6. 5
6.7
(44)
()
(44)
(4)
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
34.
39.
38.
38.
40.
14.
16.
17.
16.
17.
9
4
1
4
2
19.7
23. 1
21. 2
22.3
23.4
12. 7
15.3
14. 2
15. 1
16. 3
7.0
7.8
7. 1
7. 2
7. 1
(4)
(4)
43. 9
50. 7
67.4
85. 1
105. 5
18. 8
21.7
19. 2
19. 1
21. 6
25. 1
29. 0
48. 2
66.0
83.9
17. 8
21. 8
41. 4
59. 8
77.6
7.4
7. 2
6.8
6. 1
6,3
5. 3
7. 1
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.9
8. 1
10. 0
11. 1
12. 2
6.3
5. 3
2. 7
1. 5
1.0
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
124 0
114.0
116.3
114 3
120.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
42.5
43.0
97.9
82. 9
78. 2
71. 8
77.2
90. 6
74.8
69.2
62.6
67.0
7.3
8. 1
9.0
9.2
10. 2
7.3
^ 11.3
14.7
15. 6
13.9
13.9
15.0
15. 6
17.2
17.0
1. 1
1.0
.9
.8
. 8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
126.7
132. 6
141. 6
145. 7
155. 9
52. 2
57. 7
64.2
67. 6
70. 6
74. 4
74 9
77. 5
78. 1
85.3
62.0
61. 5
63. 3
63. 4
69. 0
12.4
13. 3
14. 1
14.7
16. 3
7
17. 8
21. 6
23. 4
23.4
22. 4
15. 6
18. 5
19. 6
19.3
18. 5
. 8
. 8
.7
.7
.8
.1
1955
1956
160.9
165. 1
82.6
90.3
78.3
74 8
61. 6
58. 6
16. 7
16.3
8 26. 7
31. 3
18. 3
18.4
. 6
.6
. 6
. 8
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
_
6
5
3
7
7
*
()
5
5
2
5
4
'
W
(55)
(5)
(5)
(5)
()
(5)
(5fl)
()
w
.3
. 3
. 5
. 2
.1
.4
. 2
.2
. 1
.1
.1
. 3
.8
. 8
1 June dates prior to 1936 because end-of-year data not available for U. S. Government obligations; December dates thereafter.
For " W e e k l y reporting member
banks," last Wednesday of the year.
J Includes commercial and industrial loans and, prior to 1956, agricultural loans.
,
8 Figures for balances and borrowings are averages of daily figures for the calendar year period.
Figures for required and excess reserves prtor to 1929 available
onlyjfor call report dates. Figures for borrowings for 1929 to date represent only rediscounts and advances to member banks.
* N o t available.
8 Less than $50 million.
9 Data from March 1933 through April 1934 for licensed banks only.
1 Series revised to extend coverage; previous figures not entirely comparable.
8 Reclassification of loans beginning In October 1955 resulted in an increase of $0.3 billion.
NOTE—Monthly data available beginning October 1947; annual from 1914, except as noted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
analysis, these will not necessarily lead to significantly different conclusions, but the differences should be
kept in mind. Thus, the all-commercial-bank series
should be distinguished from the somewhat larger
"all-bank" series which includes some 500 mutual
savings banks; and from various smaller aggregates
such as those for national banks and insured commercial banks. The all-commercial-bank aggregates
here are for continental United States, and may
differ slightly from totals which include banks in the
possessions, published by the Comptroller of the
Currency and the FDIC.
The weekly series includes most of the larger banks
in larger cities and covers a substantial segment of
total commercial bank resources. Although the
series is not identical in coverage with any published
call report aggregate, it is similar in coverage to the
aggregate for all member banks other than "country"
banks. A more recently developed Federal Reserve
series showing changes in commercial and industrial
63
loans by type of business of borrower, weekly from
1951, is based on a subsample of the weekly reporting
banks and ties in with the business-loan figure.
The series on reserves and member-bank borrowings, being averages of dailyfigures,are not directly
comparable with week-end or month-end memberbank or Reserve-bank statistics.
Uses and limitations.—The all-commercial-bank
figures are useful indicators of business activity and
trends in bank credit use. Data for the weekly reporting member banks are more frequent and more
prompjb than those for all commercial banks and provide the more detailed category of "business loans."
The weekly series also is a more sensitive indicator
of developments in the short-term money market,
because it covers the larger banks in the more important centers.
The series on reserves and borrowing are a partial
reflection of the credit potential of the banking
system. Excess reserves are available to the banks
holding them for further credit expansion. Memberbank borrowing from the Reserve banks reflects the
extent to which some banks (not holding excess
reserves) have borrowed temporarily to meet minimum reserve requirements. A measure known as
"free reserves" may be computed by subtracting
borrowings from excess reserves. The series on
required and excess reserves form an integral part of
the significant weekly and monthly Federal Reserve
tabulation entitled "Member Bank Reserves, Reserve Bank Credit and Related Items," which shows
interrelationships among various sources and uses of
reserve funds. Users should recognize that there is a
seasonal movement in the data on loans and reserves.
References.•—The monthly estimates for all commercial banks appear initially about a month after
the date of the report in a set of Federal Reserve
releases—G.7, G.7 (a), G.7 (b)—showing the major
balance-sheet items and changes during the past
month and year for all banks, all commercial banks,
and member banks. The Federal Reserve Bulletin
also carries the estimates for recent months, with call
report data for selected years back to 1939.
The Wednesday data for the weekly reporting
member banks appear initially on the following
Wednesday in a Federal Reserve release (H.4.2),
showing also changes in assets and liabilities over the
last week and year. The Federal Reserve Bulletin
carries the weekly data and monthly averages for the
last 3 months. Recent revisions are explained in
the Bulletin for June 1947 and April 1953.
Figures for member-bank borrowings and preliminary estimates of excess and required reserves
appear first in the weeldy release H.4.1, showing
weekly averages of daily figures, available the day
following the end of the week. The semimonthly
release J.l gives similar data for a half-month period,
available with a lag of about 20 days. Weekly and
monthly data appear in the Bulletin.
Banking and Monetary Statistics, published by
Federal Reserve in 1943, includes discussions and
historical tables dealing with all-bank data, the
weeldy reporting member-bank series, and memberbank reserves and borrowings.
CONSUMER CREDIT
Description of series.—These series are estimates
of short- and intermediate-term consumer credit, in
total and by major types. Federal Reserve publishes additional detail by type of credit and by type
of financial institution or retail outlet to which the
debt is owed.
"Consumer credit" is defined as "all credit used to
finance the purchase of commodities and services for
personal consumption or to refinance debts originally
incurred for such purposes." Credit covers both
loans and sales involving deferred payment. Personal consumption is defined so as to exclude consumption not only by businesses but by nonprofit
organizations. The estimates exclude home-mortgage credit,^traditionally considered separately.
"Instalment credit," accounting for the bulk of
consumer credit, is that scheduled to be repaid in
two or more payments. Instalment credit classified as "Automobile paper" and "Other consumer
64
goods paper" includes credit for the purchase of, and
secured by, such goods regardless of whether originating as loans or as credit sales, and regardless of
whether the paper is held by a merchant or a financial institution. "Repair and modernization loans"
includes such loans held by financial institutions but
not by merchants. "Personal loans" covers loans by
financial institutions for all other consumer purposes,
such as to consolidate debts, to pay medical expenses,
or for education.
Consumers' "noninstalment
credit" is classified by Federal Reserve into three
types: charge accounts; single-payment loans; and
service credit (consumer debts to a variety of
creditors, including hospitals, doctors, utilities, and
service establishments).
The definition of consumer credit cited above is
followed in general but not rigidly in the construction of the series. In the absence of sufficiently refined data, certain arbitrary decisions have been
Consumer Credit
[Millions of dollars]
End of year
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
1929
1930.
1931
1932.
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
Instalment credit outstanding
Total
Automobile
paper 1
Noninstalment
credit outstanding
Other
Repair
consumer and mod- Personal
goods
ernization
loans
paper 1
loans 2
Total
Charge
accounts
Instalment
credit
extended 3
Instalment
credit
repaid 3
444
3, 151
1, 384
(4)
(4)
(4)
3, 293
1, 602
5, 799
5, 350
5, 767
4, 760
567
3, 482
3, 904
2, 687
2, 207
1, 521
1,588
1, 871
986
684
356
493
614
(44)
()
(44)
m
(44)
(4)
()
(44)
()
(4)
(44)
(4)
(4)
3, 080
2, 553
2, 046
1, 894
2, 033
1, 476
1, 265
1, 020
990
1, 102
4, 814
3, 866
2 435
i 480
3, 125
5, 278
4, 346
3, 121
2, 413
< 2,842
4
(4)
(44)
(4)
(44)
()
(44)
()
217
512
674
647
719
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
183
300
336
362
414
4,
5,
6,
5,
6,
189
617
308
406
872
3,
4,
5,
5,
6,
366
688
916
730
060
8,
9,
o,
4,
4f
219
425
239
587
894
7,
8,
8,
5,
4,
208
854
158
617
854
()
()
4,
6,
6,
6,
7,
911
135
689
338
222
2,
3,
4,
3,
4,
694
623
015
691
503
1,
1,
1,
1,
992
372
494
099
497
1, 620
298
1, 088
2,
2,
2,
2,
2,
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
8,
0,
5,
4,
5,
338
172
983
901
111
5,
6,
3,
2,
2,
514
085
166
136
176
2, 071
2 458
742
355
397
1, 827
1, 929
1, 195
819
791
371
376
255
130
119
1, 245
1, 322
974
832
869
2,
3,
2,
2,
2,
824
087
817
765
935
1, 471
1, 645
1, 444
1, 440
1,517
1945
1946
1947.
1948
1949
5,
8,
11,
14
17,
665
384
570
398
305
2,
4,
6,
8,
11,
462
172
695
996
590
455
981
1, 924
3, 018
4, 555
1,
2,
2,
3,
816
290
143
901
706
182
405
718
853
898
1,
1,
1,
2,
2,
009
496
910
224
431
3,
4,
4,
5,
5,
203
212
875
402
715
1,
2,
2,
2,
2,
612
076
353
673
795
5,
8,
12,
15,
18,
379
495
713
585
108
5,
6,
10,
13,
15,
093
785
190
284
514
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
21, 395
22 617
27| 401
31, 243
32, 292
14,
15,
19,
23,
23,
703
294
403
005
568
6,
5,
7,
9,
9,
074
972
733
835
809
4,
4,
6,
6,
6,
799
880
174
779
751
1, 016
1, 085
1, 385
1,610
1, 616
2,
3,
4,
4,
5,
814
357
111
781
392
6,
7,
7,
8,
8,
692
323
998
238
724
3, 291
3, 605
4, 011
4, 124
4,308
21,
23,
29,
31,
31,
558
576
514
558
051
18,
22,
25,
27,
30,
445
985
405
956
488
1955.
1956
38, 648
41; 863
29, 020
31, 552
7, 626
8, 139
1, 670
1, 793
6, 256
7, 184
9, 628
10, 311
4, 544
4, 702
39, 128
39, 602
13, 468
14, 436
(4)
()
(44)
()
()
33, 676
37, 070
1 Includes all consumer credit extended for the purchase of the specified consumer goods, and secured bv the item purchased.
a Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goodsjpaper."
s Credit extended or repaid during the year.
< Not available.
NOTE.—Monthly and annual data available beginning 1929, except as noted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
made. For example, all bank credit to farmers is
excluded even though an undetermined part is for
consumption. On the other hand, credit for the
purchase of passenger automobiles by individuals is
included even though an undetermined (but presumably very small) part of the use is for business
purposes.
The several series on consumer credit outstanding
are to be distinguished from the two series on
instalment credit extended and instalment credit
repaid, respectively. These series, first issued by
Federal Reserve in 1954, measure the gross flows of
lending and repayment which explain changes in the
level of instalment credit outstanding.
Statistical procedures.—The "Consumer credit outstanding" series are aggregates of separate estimates
of the consumer credit held by a number of different
types of creditors—financial institutions, retail and
service establishments, and others. The procedures
are complex, and vary for the different groups.
In general, the benchmark for estimates for retail
trade is the 1948 Census of Business, which provides
information on credit held by the various retail lines.
These figures have been adjusted to exclude estimated amounts of nonconsumer credit. Monthly
figures are then arrived at by estimating, on the
basis of sample monthly data, what change has taken
place since the benchmark data. For the more important credit-granting lines, monthly data on credit
65
receivables are collected from a sample of the firms.
For other lines, monthly receivables are estimated by
means of a formula based on the movement of sales
during the previous few months. Annual sample
data on receivables, collected from many lines,
provide a basis for correcting the monthly estimates.
Monthly data on receivables are available from
the more importantfinancialinstitutions engaged in
consumer lending. Benchmarks for estimates of
credit outstanding are provided for certain holders
by annual or more frequent reports with complete
coverage, and for others by a special survey in 1955
of salesfinance,consumerfinance,and other personal
finance companies.
Methods of estimating the several components of
service credit vary, but in general must rely on less
substantial data. The largest component (medical
debt) is based on an annual sample survey of consumers and an estimated seasonal pattern. On the
other hand, virtually complete reports on certain utility receivables are available monthly or semiannually.
The estimates of instalment credit extended and
repaid are derived with the aid of currently reported
data from the reporting samples of lending and
instalment-selling groups covering either collections
or credit extended. Both the credit extended and
repaid series are available on a seasonally adjusted
basis, as well as on the unadjusted basis shown in
Economic Indicators. Derived series on change in
outstanding instalment credit are also available,
adjusted and unadjusted.
Uses and limitations.—The widespread interest in
consumer credit is due in part to its importance as
a source of consumer purchasing power, and especially its significance in the market for consumer
goods frequently bought on the instalment plan.
In part it is due to the fact that consumer credit
reflects one aspect of the financial position of consumers. Consumer credit is also an important
element in the demand for funds in the financial
community.
In the face of problems of adapting available data
to the precise definition of consumer credit outlined
above, Federal Reserve points out that the estimate
of total short- and intermediate-term consumer
credit probably understates somewhat the true
total. Problems of definition and estimation are
discussed fully in the descriptive material on the
series, cited below.
References ~Consumer credit estimates appear
originally in several monthly Federal Reserve releases, of which the basic one is "Consumer Credit
(Short and Intermediate Term)." Data for the past
13 months, with selected annual back data, are published each month in the Federal Reserve Bulletin.
The October 1956 issue of the Bulletin contains a
description of the most recent revision of the various
series and revised monthly data back through 1948,
as well as references to earlier discussions of concepts
and methodology. A supplementary technical discussion of estimating methods is available in
pamphlet form from Federal Reserve.
BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES
3-Month Treasury Bills
Treasury bills are issued weekly. An average discount rate is computed for each weekly issuance, on
the basis of the varying prices at which portions of the
issue are awarded, in order, to the highest bidders.
The monthly series presented in Economic Indicators
is a simple average of the average rates for the 4 or 5
issues during the month.
The series is useful as a measure of a short-term
rate on relatively riskless borrowing. Issuance or
"auction" rates are related to but not typically
identical with average "market" rates, also published
by Federal Reserve, which are averages based on
daily trading quotations for the issue of longest
maturity.
The monthly averages are issued in an advance
Federal Reserve release, G. 13, and are published in
the Federal Reserve Bulletin. Fuller information
on the individual issues appears in the Treasury
66
Bulletin. Textual discussion appears in Banking and
Monetary Statistics, with data on the yields of 3- to
6-month Treasury notes and certificates for 1920-33.
Taxable Bonds
Fully taxable long-term bonds were first issued in
1941, and the average of fully taxable long-term
bonds began in October 1941. Until April 1953 there
was a single series, with some variation in definition,
representing all such long-term Treasury bond yields.
In April 1953, as a result of the announcement of the
new 25- to 30-year 3K's, the existing series was
designated "Bonds due or callable from 12 to 20
years," while a new series (initially only the 3K's)
was designated "Bonds due or callable at 20 years
and after."
Beginning with June 1955 the average designated
"Due or callable from 12 to 20 years" was revised
by the Treasury to "Due or callable from 10 to
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
[Percent per annum]
U. S. Government security yields
Year
3-month
Treasury
bills i
Taxable bonds
3
1929.
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard
& Poor's)
Corporate bonds
(Moody's)
Aaa
Prime
commercial
paper,
4 - 6 months
Baa
4.27
4. 73
5. 90
19301931.
1932.
19331934.
1.
.
.
.
402
879
515
256
4 07
4.01
4. 65
4. 71
4.03
4.
4.
5.
4.
4.
55
58
01
49
00
5.
7.
9.
7.
6.
90
62
30
76
32
1935.
19361937.
1938.
1939.
.
.
.
.
.
137
143
447
053
023
3. 40
3. 07
3. 10
2.91
2. 76
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
60
24
26
19
01
5.
4.
5.
5.
4.
75
77
03
80
96
1940.
1941.,
1942..
1943..
1944.
.
.
.
.
.
014
103
326
373
375
2. 50
2. 10
2. 36
2. 06
1. 86
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
84
77
83
73
72
4.
4.
4.
3.
3.
75
33
28
91
61
1. 67
1. 64
2.01
2. 40
2.
2.
2.
2.
62
53
61
82
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
29
05
24
47
42
24
41
52
74
51
2.46
2. 47
2. 48
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948..
1949..
.375
. 375
. 594
1. 040
1. 102
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
1950..
1951-.
1952..
1953..
1954..
1. 552
1. 766
1. 931
.953
1. 218
2. 32
2. 57
3 2. 92
2. 52
< 3. 16
2. 71
1955..
1956..
1. 753
2. 658
3. 06
2. 80
2. 94
3. 11
37
19
25
44
31
2. 68
2. 21
2. 66
1.
2.
2.
2.
2.
98
00
19
72
37
2. 62
2. 86
2. 96
3. 20
2. 90
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
2. 53
2. 93
3. 06
3. 36
3. 53
3. 88
* Rate on new issues within period.
3 Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941.
The single series on these bonds (which continued through March 1953) included: October
1941-March 1952, bonds due or callable after 15 years; April 1952-March 1953, bonds due or callable after 12 years.
3 Bonds due or callable from 10 to 20 years.
* Bonds due or callable at 20 years and after.
NOTE.—Monthly data available beginning 1931 (scattered issues beginning December 1929) for 3-month Treasury bills; 1941 for taxable bonds; 1900 for high-grade
municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's); 1929 for corporate Aaa and Baa bonds (Moody's); and 1890 for prime commercial paper, 4-6 months.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Treasury Department, Standard <fe Poor's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service.
The two series reflect yields of government securi20 years" in order to allow the series to continue
beyond December 1955, when the longest bond in the ties in their respective areas of length of term to call
average (the 2%'s of December 1967-72) would have or maturity. The maturity distribution of the
dropped below 12 years to first call date. For con- bonds entering into the computation will vary with
sistency, the new 10- to 20-year average was com- the passage of time and as new bonds are added or
puted back to April 1953, although changes from the old ones removed.
old average never exceeded 0.02 percent on a monthly
The series are published monthly in the Treasury
basis.
Bulletin and the Federal Reserve Bulletin, and in the
The series designated "Due or callable at 20 years Federal Reserve release G. 13, Open Market Money
and after" now includes the 3's of 1995 issued Rates.
in February 1955, as well as the 3K's of 1978-83.
Both series are based on daily closing-bid quota- High-Grade Municipal Bonds
tions in the over-the-counter market as reported to
This series, compiled by Standard & Poor's Corthe Federal Reserve Bank of New York by leading
dealers in New York City. Each is an unweighted poration, is an arithmetic average of the yield to
average of the individual yields. The table shows maturity of 15 high-grade domestic municipal bonds,
averages of daily figures.
each with approximately 20 years to maturity.
67
group. Occasional substitutions in the bond list
have been made when ratings have been changed,
when a bond has been called or sells too high above
its call price, or because of approaching maturity.
Suitable adjustments (usually small), which are gradually amortized, are introduced to prevent such substitutions from impairing the comparability of the
series.
These series are useful general indicators of the
level and movement of average yields of selected
bonds of the respective grades with sufficiently long
maturities and other features to afford adequate
measures of long-term interest rates. They are not
a measure of average yields of all Aaa or all Baa
bonds available to the investor; nor do they reflect
changes in qualitative terms of borrowing such as
Corporate Aaa and Baa Bonds
call provisions.
The daily corporate bond yield averages are pubThese series measure the currently prevailing
lished
weekly in Moody's Bond Survey, which includes
maturity yields on long-term corporate bonds of the
from
time
to time the list of bonds. Historical
highest quality and of "lower medium grade," as
reflected in the yields of selected bonds rated Aaa monthly data and annual averages for these two
and Baa by Moody's Investors Service. The series series are available back to 1919, and are published
shown here are 2 of a group of similar series computed in Moody's Industrial Manual.
by Moody's, covering bonds classified by 4 rating
groups (Aaa, Aa, A, Baa) and by 3 industrial groups. Prime Commercial Paper
The formula for these series was established in 1928
This series measures the prevailing rate on prime
to include for each rating 10 industrial, 10 railroad,
and 10 public utilit3T bonds. Since 1935, however, 4 to 6 months' commercial paper. It is useful as a
there have not always been 10 suitable bonds for measure of the cost of open-market short-term credit
each classification. The Aaa series currently in- available to large business borrowers of the highest
cludes 6 industrials, 6 railroads, and 10 public utili- credit standing.
The prevailing daily selling quotation is determined
ties; and the Baa 10 industrials, 10 railroads, and
10 public utilities.
by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the
The series were calculated on a monthly basis basis of information obtained through continuing confrom 1919 through 1931; and have been calculated tacts with New York City dealers handling the bulk
daily beginning in 1932. Weekly and monthly of the volume of commercial paper of the inventory
figures are averages of daily figures; annual figures type, and less frequent reports concerning rates outare averages of 12 monthly figures.
side New York. Monthly and weekly figures are
The daily yield for each selected bond is computed averages of daily prevailing rates.
on the basis of closing price, as reported in dealers'
Annual, monthly and weeklyfiguresfor the period
quotations. For each of the rating classifications since 1941 are available in the Federal Reserve Bulthe 10 (or fewer) individual yields for each industrial letin, and the most recent data are shown in the
group are averaged, without weighting; and the advance Federal Reserve monthly release, G. 13.
corporate index is computed as the unweighted Annual and monthly data, 1890-1941, and weekly
average of the 3 industrial-group averages.
data, 1919-41, may be found in Banking and MoneIssues included in each average are selected to tary Statistics, published by Federal Reserve in 1943.
represent typical long-term bonds in each rating
The issues are selected on the basis of quality, trading
activity, and geographic representation. The yields
are based on Wednesday's closing prices, and the
monthly figures are averages of the 4 or 5 weekly
figures for the month. Prior to 1929 the monthly
figures were based on an average of the high and low
prices for the month. The series is available back to
1929 on a weekly and 1900 on a monthly basis.
The series is published weekly in Standard & Poor's
Outlook and Bond Outlook. Monthly and annual
average figures back to 1900 and a description of
the series and list of the issues used appears in the
1957 edition of Standard & Poor's Security Price
Index Record.
STOCK PRICES
Description of series.—These indexes measure
average price movement of 265 of the more active
common stocks listed on the New York Stock
Exchange. The stocks, classified in Economic Indi68
cators only by broad categories, are also classified in
the basic releases under 29 selected industry groups.
These groups and the individual stocks in them
were selected on the basis of common-stock trading
Stock Prices
[Weekly average; 1939=100]
Year
Composite
index 1
Manufacturing
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Transportation
1939
100. 0
100. 0
100.0
100. 0
100. 0
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
94.
85.
74
99.
108.
2
7
9
2
1
93.
84.
75.
99.
106.
4
8
5
1
9
92.
81.
73.
94.
104
5
6
7
7
7
94. 2
88.0
77.2
103. 5
109. 2
99.
96.
90.
125.
140.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
131.
149.
130.
132.
127.
2
4
9
7
7
129.
146.
132.
136.
132.
0
6
4
8
1
129.
138.
119.
124.
116.
0
6
9
3
0
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
154
184.
195.
193.
229.
1
9
0
3
8
165.
206.
220.
220.
271.
7
8
2
1
3
150.
178.
188.
192.
245.
2
5
8
6
2
1955
1956
304. 6
345. 0
374. 4
438. 6
352. 4
409. 8
Utilities
Trade,
finance,
and service
Mining
100. 0
100. 0
100. 0
2
5
8
1
8
99.
89.
69.
90.
99.
9
1
8
5
0
90.4
82. 0
71. 3
101. 0
117.3
75. 6
71. 1
59. 7
83. 5
93.3
129. 2
154.5
144 6
148. 6
147. 2
190. 0
202.4
149. 1
158. 1
136. 0
112.
121.
105.
99.
98.
9
0
5
3
1
149.3
204. 3
162. 8
156.9
160. 7
114 3
125. 5
117. 2
133.0
129. 4
180.
233.
249.
245.
295.
2
1
3
2
2
160.0
199. 0
220. 6
218. 7
232. 6
108. 9
112. 6
117.9
121. 5
135. 8
183. 8
207.9
206. 0
207. 1
235. 6
143. 5
204. 9
275. 7
240. 5
267.0
394 4
465. 1
320.0
327. 1
152.9
155. 8
296. 9
306.3
312. 9
357.5
1 Includes 265 common stocks; 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 29 for utilities, 31 for trade, finance
and service, and 14 for mining. Indexes are for weekly closing prices.
NOTE.—Monthly and weekly data available beginning with 1939.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
activity on the Exchange in 1949. The selected
Uses and limitations.—This is a moderately sensigroups correspond in general to classifications in the tive weekly index presented in terms of categories
Standard Industrial Classification. The stocks thus roughly comparable with the Standard Industrial
selected from a total of approximately 1,000 listed Classification—a feature which facilitates use in
common stocks accounted for about 70 percent of the conjunction with other series so presented.
The indexes will not necessarily reflect weekly
value of common-stock trading activity on the New
price movements of stocks not listed on the New
York Stock Exchange in 1949.
The prices reflected in the indexes are for the last York Stock Exchange, of the less active stocks so
sales of the respective stocks during the week as listed, or of those from industries excluded from the
reported in the financial press. Monthly and an- sample because of low volume of trading activity.
This selectivity of industries should be borne in mind
nual figures are averages of weekly figures.
Statistical procedures.—The index for each of thewhen using the indexes for the broader industrial
29 industry groups measures the total current market categories presented in Economic Indicators.
References.—The SEC data are first published in
value of the included issues (i. e., number of shares
outstanding times price) as a percentage of their a release issued each Monday entitled "SEC Indexes
total market value in 1939 (computed as an average of Weekly Closing Prices of Common Stocks on the
of 52 weekly figures). Each industry is weighted in New York Stock Exchange," showing data for the
the larger aggregates according to the value of the 2 previous weeks, with percent change. The monthly
selected issues, and not necessarily according to the SEC Statistical Bulletin shows price and change data
for the 4 or 5 latest weeks. Data back to 1939 on a
value of all listed issues in the industry.
When the number of outstanding shares of an weekly and monthly basis are available on request.
issue is changed an adjustment of the index is made A release entitled "Computation of SEC Index/'
only if such change involves a change in the invested which includes a list of the selected stocks, may be
capital. The base value of the issue is then revised obtained from SEC.
in the ratio of the new to the old capitalization so
that the index will reflect only price movement.
69
FEDERAL FINANCE
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITL
Description of series.—Budget receipts and expenditures measure the financial transactions of all
Government-owned funds. Budget receipts are
derived mostly from various kinds of taxes, but also
from customs duties and from miscellaneous sources
such as rents, fines, fees, sales of products and
services, and collections on certain loans and investments. Budget expenditures primarily represent
purchases of goods and services (including capital
outlays), and transfer payments to individuals,
grants to States, and certain payments to Federal
trust funds. Budget expenditures are payable out
of budget receipts or, if necessary, out of borrowing.
Transactions of trust funds, representing moneys
held in trust by the Government for specific purposes, are excluded from budget receipts and expenditures.
"Net budget receipts" include all money paid into
the Treasury to the credit of the general fund and of
special funds. They do not include money obtained
from borrowing; nor do they include receipts of
revolving and management funds, since these
funds are reported on a net basis in the expenditure
figures. Amounts refunded by the Government
(principally for the overpayment of taxes arising
from the withholding system) and amounts collected
from various employment and excise taxes which
are transferred to the appropriate trust funds are
deducted in arriving at net budget receipts.
"Net budget expenditures" cover the general fund
and the special funds (generally on a gross basis) and
revolving and management funds (on a net basis).
Revolving and management funds comprise both intragrovernmental funds and public enterprise funds.
In the accompanying table collections received by
these funds are deducted from the total of payments
made, and the resulting figure is included as the expenditure; where the collections are larger than the
payments from such funds, the net amount included
in the expenditures is a negative item. Starting with
the 1955 Budget Document, the summary budget
tables report the expenditures of public enterprise
funds on a gross basis to arrive at "gross budget
expenditures." Applicable receipts of the public
enterprise funds are then deducted from the total to
arrive at "net budget expenditures." Net budget expenditures do not include retirement of Government
debt, nor do they include investments of Government
enterprises in United States securities.
70
"Major national security" is a classification of
budget expenditures which is currently used in the
Budget Document. It comprises: (1) Department of
Defense, military functions; (2) the military assistance portion of the mutual security program; (3)
development and control of atomic energy; and (4)
stockpiling and defense production expansion.
"Budget surplus or deficit" represents the difference between net budget receipts and net budget
expenditures.
"Public debt" consists of the outstanding gross
borrowings of the United States Treasury and the
guaranteed obligations of other Government agencies
not held by the Treasury. The budget surplus or
deficit is not the only factor which causes a change
in the public debt, although it is generally the major
influencing factor. The other factors operating to
increase or reduce the debt are: (1) changes in
Government cash balances; (2) the results of trust
fund transactions; (3) the use of Government corporation borrowing directly from the public as a
means of financing the corporation's budget expenditures (or the utilization of their net receipts to
repay such borrowing); and (4) changes in the
amount of checks outstanding and other items in
the process of clearing through the accounts^
Statistical procedures.—Budget receipts and expenditures are published each month by the Treasury
Department in the Monthly Statement of Receipts
and Expenditures of the United States Government.
Under the reporting procedure instituted in February 1954, budget receipts are on a collections
basis, and budget expenditures are reported on the
basis of checks issued and cash payments made by
Government disbursing officers. The public debt
is compiled daily from records of the United States
Treasury and is published in the Daily Statement of
the United States Treasury (with details at the end
of each month) as well as in the Monthly Statement
When an expenditure is made by a debt issuance
(for example, Armed-Forces leave bonds issued in
1947) or by an increase in the public debt (such as the
semiannual increase in the redemption value of
savings bonds) instead of by check or currency,
the debt increase is included in budget expenditures.
On the other hand, amounts invested by the Government in its revolving and management funds,
and the collection of dividends and repayments of
amounts invested in such funds, are excluded as
Budget Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
Net budget expenditures
Fiscal year
Net budget
receipts
Total
Major
national
security 1
Budget surplus ( + ) or
deficit (—)
Public debt
(end of
period)3
1929
3.9
3. 1
0. 7
4-0.7
16.9
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
4. 1
3. 1
1.9
2.0
3. 1
3.3
3. 6
4.7
4.6
6.7
.7
. 7
.7
. 6
.5
+.7
5
-2.7
-2. 6
-3. 6
16. 2
16.8
19. 5
22. 5
27.7
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
3.7
4. 1
5.0
5.6
5.0
6.5
8.5
7. 8
6. 8
8.9
.7
.9
.9
1.0
1. 1
-2. 8
- 4 4
-2.8
-1.2
-3.9
32.8
38.5
41. 1
42. 0
45.9
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
5. 1
7. 1
12.6
22.0
43. 6
9. 1
13.3
34.0
79.4
95. 1
1. 5
6.0
23.9
63.2
76.8
-3.9
-6.2
-21. 5
-57.4
-51.4
48. 5
55.3
77.0
140.8
202. 6
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
44. 5
39.8
39.8
41. 5
37. 7
98.4
60.4
39.0
33. 1
39. 5
81.3
43. 2
14 4
11. 8
12. 9
-53.9
-20.7
+.8
+ 8.4
-1.8
259. 1
269.9
258.4
252. 4
252. 8
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
36.
47.
61.
64.
64
5
6
4
8
7
39.6
44. 1
65.4
74 3
67.8
13.0
22.4
44 0
50. 4
46.9
-3. 1
4-3.5
-4.0
-9.4
-3. 1
257.4
255.3
259. 2
266. 1
271. 3
1955
1956
1957 3
60. 4
68. 2
71.0
64. 6
66. 5
69.3
40.6
40. 6
43.2
-4.2
+ 1.6
+ 1.6
274.4
272.8
270.6
l Based on the classification of "major national security" in The Budget of the United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June S0t 1958. This classification includes the military functions of the Department of Defense (including the Coast Guard from 1941 to 1946), the military assistance portion or the mutual security
program, development and control of atomic energy, stockpiling, and defense production expansion. Several activities closely related to national security are excluded;
as a result, figures for war years probably understate war expenditures significantly.
* Includes guaranteed securities, except those held b y the Treasury. Not all of the total shown Is subject to the statutory debt limitation.
> Preliminary.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
capital transfers from both budget receipts and
expenditures.
Relation to other series.—Several other statistical
series are derived in large part from data on budget
receipts and expenditures. For example, the series
on Federal cash receipts from and payments to the
public (see following section) is calculated by starting with the data on budget receipts and expenditures, adding trust fund transactions, and then making certain adjustments to arrive at the cash flow
of funds between the public and the Federal Government as a whole.
Budget receipts and expenditures are also used in
obtaining the data for the Federal Government
sector included in the Department of Commerce
income and product series (see pp. 4 and 6). Since
budgetary figures are reported on a checks-issued
and collections-received basis, they are adjusted
to the accrual accounting basis used in the income
and product accounts; for example, corporation
profits taxes are adjusted to show tax liabilities
instead of tax collections. The budget expenditure
data also must be analyzed and adjusted by the
Department of Commerce to obtain separately the
expenditures for goods and services, transfer payments, and other outlays.
Uses and limitatiojis.—Data on budget receipts
and expenditures are useful in several significant respects. First, since they reflect the financial transactions of all Government-owned funds, they serve
71
as an important indicator of executive and legislative
budget policy. Second, the relationship between
the receipts and expenditure figures usually serves as
the major determinant of increases or decreases in the
public debt. Third, this series is prepared in detail
based on the Government's financial accounts and
forms the basis for various other series on Federal
financial transactions which are important for
economic analysis.
For purposes of appraising the effect of Federal
financial transactions on the economy, however, this
series has important limitations. For example,
business activity may be influenced by Government
financial operations long before such operations are
reflected in the figures on budget expenditures or
receipts; some of the economic impact is reflected
at the stage when contracts for goods and services
are let, i. e., when obligations are incurred, or when
tax liabilities are changed by a new tax measure.
Moreover, Federal guaranties and insurance of
private loans also influence the economy, although
they have a relatively minor effect on budget receipts
or expenditures. In addition, the operations of the
trust funds and Government-sponsored enterprises
play an important role in the economy which is not
reflected in the budget figures.
References.—The basic release of the budget
receipts and expenditures data is the Monthly
Statement of Receipts and Expenditures of the United
States Government issued by the Treasury Department. A description of the basis for this statement
was published in the April 1954 issue of the Treasury
Bulletin, page A-2, and is summarized in current
issues on page II. Annual data are available in
the Budgets of the United States Government, issued
by the Bureau of the Budget, and are also reported
in the Combined Statement of Receipts, Expenditures,
and Balances of the United States Government, issued
by the Treasury Department. Data beginning with
1789 are published in the Annual Reports of the
Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the
Finances.
CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYME rTS TO THE PUBLIC
To derive thefigureson Federal cash receipts from
Description of series.—This series presents information on the flow of money between the public and and payments to the public, several adjustments are
the Federal Government as a whole, representing in made to budget receipts and expenditures. The
effect a consolidated cash statement of Federal following items are added: (1) transactions of trust
transactions—other than borrowing—with the pub- and deposit funds; (2) net expenditures or receipts
lic. The public is defined to include individuals, of Government-sponsored enterprises as measured
banks, other private corporations and associations, by the sales and redemptions of their own obligaunincorporated businesses, the Federal Reserve tions and of the United States securities held by
System, the Postal Savings System, State and local them; and (3) changes in the clearing accounts of
governments, foreign governments, and international the United States Treasurer to adjust for checks
organizations.
outstanding and other items. The following items
Federal cash receipts from and payments to the are eliminated: (1) intragovernmental transactions,
public include the transactions of trust and deposit such as interest paid on securities held by trust
funds (which are not owned by the Federal Govern- funds (which is both a budget expenditure and a
ment) as well as the Federal funds included in trust receipt); (2) noncash expenditures in the form
budget receipts and expenditures. They also include of debt issuances or other increases in the public
certain transactions of Government-sponsored enter- debt which represent obligations of the Government
prises which are not considered a part of the Govern- to make cash payments in the future—eliminated
ment in the conventional budget data—mainly the in the year of the debt increase but added to exFederal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal penditures in subsequent years as actual cash payland banks, Federal home loan banks, and banks ments are made (for example, the semiannual infor cooperatives. Major intragovernmental and crease in the redemption value of savings bonds,
noncash transactions are excluded in the consolida- which is a part of budget expenditures, is deducted,
tion of Federal financial transactions.
while interest actually paid to the public on savings
The excess of Federal cash receipts or payments bonds redeemed during the year is added); and (3)
is sometimes referred to as the cash surplus or deficit. receipts of the Government from exercise of the
Statistical procedures.—This series is based on data monetary authority (currently consisting mostly of
published in the Daily Statement of the United States seigniorage on silver).
Treasury and the Monthly Statement of Receipts and Conceptual and statistical revisions of this series
Expenditures of the United States Government.
were made in 1947. A few changes have been made
72
Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
Year
Cash receipts
from the
public
Cash payments to
the public
Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments (—)
Billions of dollars
Fiscal years:
1929
3. 8
2. 9
+ 0. 9
1930..
1931..
1932..
1933.
1934.
4.
3.
2.
2.
3.
0
2
0
1
1
3. 1
4. 1
4.8
4. 7
6. 5
+.9
-1. 0
-2. 7
-2. 6
— 3. 3
1935.
1936.
1937.
1938.
1939.
3.8
4. 2
5. 6
7.0
6. 6
6. 3
7.6
8. 4
7. 2
9. 4
-2.
-3.
-2.
-.
-2.
4
5
8
1
9
7
8
4
8
1
1940.
1941.
1942.
1943.
1944.
6.
9.
15.
25.
47.
9
2
1
1
8
9.
14.
34.
78.
94.
6
0
5
9
0
-2.
-4.
-19.
-53.
-46.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
50. 2
43.5
43. 5
45. 4
41. 6
95.
61.
36.
36.
40.
2
7
9
5
6
-45. 0
-18. 2
+ 6. 6
+ 8. 9
+ 1.0
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
40. 9
53. 4
68.0
71. 5
71. 6
43. 1
45. 8
68.0
76. 8
71.9
1955...
1956...
1957 2.
67. 8
77. 1
82. 1
70. 5
72. 6
80. 0
l
()
-2. 2
+ 7. 6
-5.3
-. 2
-2. 7
+ 4.5
+2.1
Millions of dollars
Calendar years:
1943 3
194 4
37, 863
48,131
88, 987
94, 810
- 5 1 , 124
- 4 6 , 679
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
49,
41,
44,
44,
41,
423
441
282
914
339
86,
41,
38,
36,
42,
142
399
616
892
635
-36,719
+ 42
+ 5, 666
+ 8, 023
- 1 , 295
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
42,
59,
71,
70,
68,
411
268
436
141
589
41,
58,
73,
76,
69,
962
034
082
289
661
1955.
1956.
71, 448
80, 330
72, 188
74, 807
+
+ 1,
-1,
-6,
-1,
450
234
646
148
072
— 740
+ 5, 524
i Less than $50 million,
a Preliminary.
s First calendar year for which data are available.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department.
73
since then to reflect similar changes in the concept» public. Federal guaranties and insurance of private
of budget receipts and expenditures, such as thei loans also influence the economy even though they
change in reporting of refunds of receipts. Data, normally have little or no immediate impact on
beginning with fiscal year 1953 and calendar year1 Federal receipts from and payments to the public.
1954 are on the reporting basis (see p. 70) instituted Certain other Government contractual arrangements,
such as the lease-purchase of Government buildings,
in February 1954.
Relation to other series.—This series is similar L
in have economic effects which cannot be measured by
general concept to the series on Treasury cash the Government payments made in any one year.
deposits and withdrawals published in the Daily
References.—Current monthly data on Federal
Statement of the United States Treasury. The follow-cash receipts from and payments to the public appear
ing are the significant differences between the two: in the Treasury Bulletin, and quarterly data appear in
(1) receipts from the exercise of the monetary author- Economic Indicators. Annual data by fiscal years
ity are excluded from this series since they do not back to 1929 are published in the Statistical Abstract.
represent cash received from the public, but are Starting with the 1944 Budget, each year the
included in Treasury cash deposits; and (2) this Budget of the United States Government has also
series includes cash transactions with the public presented data for the most recent fiscal year and
from accounts of Government agencies with com- estimates for the current and following fiscal years.
mercial banks as well as from the United States The data have also been included in the annual
Treasurer's accounts, while the Treasury series Midyear Review of the Budget, prepared by the
records only transactions which affect the cash Bureau of the Budget each summer or fall. The
balances of the Treasurer, resulting in a difference related series on Treasury cash deposits and within coverage. Both series, and the reconciliation drawals is published in the Daily Statement of the
between the two, are published monthly in the United States Treasury, and monthly in the Treasury
Treasury Bulletin.
Bulletin.
Uses and limitations —For purposes of economic
Adjustments made in data on budget receipts and
analysis, the series on receipts from and payments expenditures to arrive at Federal cash receipts from
to the public is a more complete measure of the and payments to the public on a monthly basis are
impact of Federal financial transactions on the summarized in the Treasury Bulletin. The adjusteconomy than the series on budget receipts and ments made in the annual figures are listed in detail
expenditures. However, it should be recognized in a release of the Bureau of the Budget entitled
that not only cash flows, but also many other Fed- "Federal Government Receipts From and Payeral financial activities have important economic ments to the Public, Supporting Tables." This
effects. For example, a rapid expansion in new release is issued in conjunction with the annual publiappropriations and in Government orders could cation of the Budget of the United States Government
stimulate a rise in business activity long before the and the Midyear Review. A summary reconciliation
authorized funds were paid to the public. Likewise, of the differences between this series and the Treasury
the enactment of a tax measure may affect business cash deposits and withdrawals series was published
activity long before the cash flows involved take in the Budget of the United States Government, for
place between the Federal Government and the the Fiscal Year Ending June 80, 1958, on page 1066.
O
74
@FedFRASER