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, * , , ,• E D E R A L L,U03 R E S E R V e nf KANSAS CHX n rO T Hi i1 4 1957 r a O C H LIBRARY, BANKING AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN SEPTEMBER 195? Summary* Total loans and investments at a l l commerc i a l banks increased somewhat during September r e f l e c t i n g growth in loans, especially those to businesses, o f f s e t in part by reductions in holdings of U# S* Government securities d Demand deposit and currency holdings of businesses and i n dividuals increased l e s s than seasonally* Net borrowed reserves declined somewhat. Bank creditb Preliminary estimates indicate that t o t a l loans' and investments at a l l commercial banks increased about #5)00 million between August 28 and September 2£>s as shown i n Table 1* Total loans increased by $700 million while holdings of Ue S» Government s e c u r i t i e s declined somewhat# Holdings of other securities continued t o rise* At c i t y banks,, holdings of U« S# Government s e c u r i t i e s declined moderately during September following substantial sales in l a t e August subsequent t o bank purchases of Si,750 million of new Treasury b i l l s on August 21* At other banks, holdings of Up S« Government securities are estimated t o have i n creased somewhat as i s usual in September® On September 26 (not included in September reporting f i g u r e s shown on Table 1) and on October i , commercial bank holdings of U© S, Government s e c u r i t i e s rose about $2e5 b i l l i o n as banks i n i t i a l l y acquired over two-thirds of a new offering of Treasury securities totaling #3*6 b i l l i o n * This offering included; (1) $2*0 b i l l i o n of 4 per cent 5-year Treasury notes redeemable at the option of the holder on February 15, I960, on three months' advance notice, dated September 26, 1957$ (2) #933 million of h per cent Treasury c e r t i f i c a t e s of indebtedness, dated and bearing i n t e r e s t from August 1 , 1957, and due August 1, 1958 (accrued i n t e r e s t was collected on the September 26 payment date)$ and (3) $6$7 million of U per cent 12-year bonds, dated October 1 and payable in part on October 21* Last year in September, t o t a l commercial bank c r e d i t increased $900 million, somewhat more than t h i s year. Loans and holdings of securities other than those of the U* S* Government increased more while holdings of U*. S* Government securities declined by a comparable amount* Not for publication m2 m Table 1 Estimated Changes in Loans and Investments at All Commercial Banks (In b ' i l l i o n r d f a o l I i T ' i } Item Total loans {excluding interbank) Business Real estate Security Agricultural Consumer All other 19:5? 1956 1957 1956 " ; 1957 1956 "" Aug, 29- Aug. 30- June 27- July 1 - Jan. 1— Jan. 1— Sept# 25 Septe 26 Sept, 25 Septc 26 Sept, 25 Sept. 26 + 0.7 + 0.9 + 0.3 + 1.0 * 2.7 + 5«2 + Oak + 0,1 + 0.6 + 0.2 K.i + 0.9 * 0.5 *> 0.1; — 0.1 + 0.2 - 0.1 * + " + + * 3,8 + lo5 - 1.0 - 0.3 + 1,3 + 0.1 + Oelt - 2.9 — U.6 + 0.1 + 0.6 - 0.1 + leU + 0,3 * o.U + 0.1 1/ K.z * 0.1 - 0.1 - 0,2 + 0.3 — 0.1 - 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.1 Uo Sa Government- s e c u r i t i e s - 0e2 - 0.2 + o.u Other securities + 0.1 + 0.2 + + 0.5 + 0.9 + 0.8 Total loans and investments { l e s s interbank) Item Total, loans (excluding "^r'berbanx ) Business Real estate Security Agricultural Consumer All other 0.1 ; 1.6 O.it 0*5 0.3 1.1 0.1 Third Quarter 1955 195b 1953 1952 1951 1950 + 2.7 - o.U + 1.0 : + l»h + 0,8 +• 3«9 + + - + 0.6 + 0.1 - 1.2 0,5 0,3 0*1 0.2 0.3 0*2 + 0,9 + 0 o lt — 0<$6 + 0.2 + o.U + 0=1 + + + H,i — 0C2 — 0»1 * 0o7 + o.U 3.6 t O.U + 1,2 - 3*3 1.6 Oe8 Oo3 Oo5 0.8 0.2 0,3 0.2 + O.li +"0,2 + + + + + - Ue S0 Government s e c u r i t i e s - 1.3 + 3,8 + Other securities + 0,1 + 0.5 + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.2 + 0.9 * 1*6 + 3,9 + U.8 + 2,1 + 2.2 + 1.6 Total loans and investments ( l e s s interbank) 1/ u . + Oo6 Less than $50 million* Notes Data for September 25? 1957 are estimates and subject t o error* Preliminary data for September w i l l be shown in the Board's statement. "Assets and L i a b i l i t i e s of All Banks in the United States" available at the end of October. Mot for publication + 2c5 + 0o7 LeU»3 - 3 - Business loans Increased SUOO million in September# somewhat l e s s than in the l a s t two years when increases were about average for the postwar period. In the two weeks ending September 18, business loan expansion of about S550 million was larger than in any other two-week period since mid-June r e f l e c t i n g substantial borrowing f o r tax purposes* Last year in the comparable two weeks business loans i n creased $325 million. Large corporations paid 15 per cent of t h e i r current year's tax l i a b i l i t i e s in September 19$7 as compared with 10 per cent l a s t September. In the l a s t week of September 1957# however# business loans declined whereas in the same week l a s t year* they continued to i n crease. During September, the rise in loans t o food processors and trade concerns was about as large as in other recent years and accounted for about s i x t y per cent of the t o t a l growth in business borrowing# as shown i n Table 2 e Loans t o commodity dealers# however# declined s l i g h t l y a f t e r a larger than usual rise in August to finance the acquisition of cotton from the Commodity Credit Corporation0 Net borrowing by sales finance companies increased substantially and accounted for most of the remainder of the t o t a l growth i n business loans» This borrowing reflected in part the usual tax period s h i f t in financing from paper d i r e c t l y placed with nonfinaneial corporations t o bank borrowing. Borrowing by petroleum and chemicals concerns also i n creased somewhat but much l e s s than l a s t year when one large petroleum company had borrowed heavily to finance the acquisition of a foreign subsidiary. Since midyear, business borrowing at banks has declined $200 million compared with generally substantial increases in the third quarter of other recent years. However, outstanding loans declined sharply in July t h i s year following heavier-than-usual tax borrowing in June* Since the end of May business loans at a l l commercial banks have increased $1»U billion# about a third l e s s thai! in the same period l a s t year and over t w o - f i f t h s l e s s than in 1955« Nevertheless, t h i s year's growth was larger than in most other postwar years. Not for publication ' 4 Table 2 1*1*3 Changes in Commercial and Industrial Loans 1 / 1 (In millions of d o l l a r s ) 1 W ' ™r^6 • . 1 ^ 1951 1953 1952 Aug. 29- Aug, 30- Sept. 1 - Sept. 2 - Aug, 27- AUg. 28Sept» 25 Sept, 26 Sept. 28 Sept, 29 Sept, 23 Sept, 2k Business of Borrower Food processors Commodity dealers Trade concerns Total + + + 160 18 59 20l + 196 + 81 + 57 + 139 + 107 + 33k + 128 + 113 + 62 +15"! + Sales finance + 197 - 107 - 126 All other - t o t a l + 38 + 318 + 231 - k3 + 16 t 5 - 47 + 65 + 16 + 227 + 2 + 39 + 1 Metals and products Textiles# apparel and leather Petroleum* coal, e t c . Other manufacturing and mining Public u t i l i t i e s Construction All other types of business Classified Unclassified Total change 73 3k + k9 + 280 j + 176 + lUlt + 50 + 370 - 9k - 171 + 11+1 - 28 + 56 + 128 I2h - It + + 75 + 17 * 111 + 9 + 3 39 + 7 + 18 + 20 + 57 - 15 + 20 + 50 + 26 + 11 3 + 5 + - 2 1 + 18 + 50 + 3 + 27 + 38 + 60 + 23 + 26 + 1*35 ' + 575 - 1*0 - 58 + 14.07 + 82 + 195 + 22 + 161 - 17 + 639 + 35 + 377 + 1*89 + 217 + ia + 21 1 1 + 535 I — + 319 + 197 + 2/ 6 • + 67k i L 1/ Prior t o week ending January 11, 1956, included changes in agricultural loans e 2/ Less thatt #$00 thousand. Note: Classified data are for a sample of about 210 banks reporting changes in their larger loans; these banks hold over 90 per cent of t o t a l commercial and industrial loans of a l l weekly reporting banks and nearly 70 per cent of those of a l l commercial banks0 Data are preliminary for week of September 25# 1957. Not for publication Real estate loans continued to increase moderately in September* So far t h i s year, these loans have increased $1*00 million compared with 01 • 5 b i l l i o n in the same period l a s t year* Consumer loans rose an additional $100 million in September# bringing the increase so far t h i s year t o #1,1 b i l l i o n , almost as much as l a s t year's #1*3 billion* Agricultural loans increased in September while security loans were unchanged* Total loans and investments at a l l commercial banks have increased $300 million so far t h i s year, about the same as in the f i r s t nine months of 1956* Loans have increased only half as much, however, due largely t o l e s s rapid growth in business and real estate loans* On the other hand, holdings of U* S* Government securities have declined l e s s and holdings of other securities have increased whereas l a s t year they declined* Deposits and currency* Preliminary estimates indicate that demand deposit and currency holdings of businesses and individuals increased $600 million l e s s than seasonally in September* At the monthend, these holdings were l e s s than one-half per cent above t h e i r year-ago level* So far t h i s year, the seasonally adjusted money supply has declined $300 million compared with a rise of $300 million l a s t year* On an average basis, over the f i r s t nine months of the year, however^ the money supply has averaged s l i g h t l y l e s s than one per cent above the l e v e l in the same nine months l a s t year* Time deposits at commercial and mutual savings banks increased 3600 million in September, somewhat more than in either July or August, as normally would be expected* So far t h i s year, these deposits have increased #5*5 b i l l i o n , almost twice as much as in the same period l a s t year* At commercial banks, however, the growth has been over 2-1/2 times as large while at mutual savings banks, i t has been somewhat less* U. S, Government deposits declined $5>00 million between August 28 and September 25 but then rose sharply in late September and early October when payments were made for new Treasury securities* Not for publication ' # 6 . " Table 3 WW Estimated Changes in Deposits and Currency (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Item 1956 1956 1956 1957 1957 1957 Aug.29- Aug. 30- June 27- July 1- Jan. 1- Jan, 1Sept.25 Sept.26 Sept,25 Sept.26 Sept,2^ Sept.26 Seasonally adjusted data l / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total - 0;5 , - 0.1 - Oil 1 - Oil - 0,6 - 0,2 - Oi9 - Oil - 1.0 - 0,6 - 0i2 To3 - 0.4 + 0.1 - 0.3 + 0.3 2/ + 0,3 Unadjusted data l / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total Time deposits - t o t a l 3 / Commercial Mutual savings U. S. Government deposits Total + 0;5 + Oil + 0.6 + 0;6 +W + 0;1 - 0.5 + 0,7 + 0,1 + Oil + 0i2 + 1.3 +-r.? + 0i2 - 0i8 + 0.7 + + + + + - 5.8 - 0.4 T%2 + 5.5 + 4.6 + 1.1 - 0.1 - 0.8 - 4i5 • 0,9 and currency Bank loans and investments other than U. S. Govt. sec. 4 / Commercial Mutual savings Bank holdings of U. S. Government securities: Federal Reserve Commercial Mutual saving and other Gold stock and foreign deposits at F, R, Banks Other factors l/ + 0i9 •* Oil + 0.8 + 0i4 +""•07/ + 0.2 - 0i3 + 1,0 0,7 0;9 0i2 0i7 0i4 0.3 0.1 0.4 - + + + + - 2i9 li7 li4 li6 0.9 (signs indicate e f f e c t on deposits and currency) + 1.0 + 6i8 + 0.2 + lii + lil + 0.2 + 0.9 + 0,4 + 0.5 + li4 + lil + 0.7 + 4.6 + 3.3 + 1.7 + 6.8 + 5;1 + 2.0 - 0i5 0i2 0.2 0,1 - 0.4 - Oil - 0,2 2/ + + + - 0i6 0i2 0i4 0,1 2/ - 0i2 + 0i4 - 0.1 - - 1/ + 0.2 + Oil - 0.1 - 5^8 + 0.1 - 1.1 + 0i6 - 1.0 5.0 1.8 2i9 0.4 6s2 1,2 4i6 0.3 + 0.3 - 1.8 Seasonally adjusted data are for last Wednesday throughout; unadjusted data are for last Wednesday except in case of June and December c a l l dates, when available. 2/ Less than $50 million. 3 / Total includes Postal Savings, 5 / Total includes foreign loans on gold, holdings of bankers1 acceptances at the Federal Reserve, and loans to foreign banksj changes in these items are genera l l y relatively small. In addition even if there were no changes in these items, changes at commercial and mutual savings banks would not add to t o t a l change which i s "net'' because commercial banks exclude a l l interbank loans, domestic and foreign. Unadjusted data for the t o t a l July through September periods, 1957 and 1956 are not entirely comparable as the former are computed from the l a s t Wednesday of June and the latter from the 30th of June, Demand deposits adjusted tend to decline, currency outside banks t o increase and time deposits t o increase between the last Wednesday of June and the 30th of June* Note: Data for September 25# 1957 are estimates and subject t o error. Preliminary data for September w i l l be shown in the Board's statement, "Assets and L i a b i l i t i e s of A l l Banks in the United States" available at the end of October, On August 28, 1957; preliminary seasonally adjusted data were: Demand deposits adjusted, $106,8 b i l l i o n ; currency outside banks, $27.9 b i l l i o n ; and the t o t a l money supply, $134,7 b i l l i o n . Not for publication On balance, t o t a l deposits and currency increased $700 million i n September# Total credit expansion at commercial and mutual savings banks was o f f s e t in part by reductions in Federal Reserve holdings of U« S, Government s e c u r i t i e s . Miscellaneous factors also added somewhat t o deposit growth over the monthe So far t h i s year, t o t a l deposits and currency have declined #800 million, about the same as l a s t year* Demand deposits adjusted and currency have declined more t h i s year than l a s t but time deposits have increased more* U„ 5. Government deposits (through September 2$) were about unchanged whereas l a s t year, they increased substantially* Bank reserves. Net borrowed reserves of a l l member banks averagecTviil^ million i n September, only s l i g h t l y below the August l e v e l of 0^70 million, as shown i n Table Uo Borrowings averaged just under $1 b i l l i o n and excess reserves around $51*0 million. Reserves eased subs t a n t i a l l y at country banks and to a l e s s e r extent at central reserve c i t y banks at New York. At central reserve c i t y banks i n Chicago and at reserve c i t y banks, however, net borrowed reserves increased somewhat. The e f f e c t i v e rate on Federal funds dropped below 3-1/2 per cent on only one day in September» Over September, as shown in Table $, reserves supplied to banks through Federal Reserve purchases of U. So Government securities and increases in Reserve Bank f l o a t were absorbed in large part through currency outflows and increases in required reserves. During the f i r s t two weeks of September, net borrowed reserves remained close t o their l a t e August l e v e l as System purchases of U. S. Government securities and declines in required reserves provided funds t o about o f f s e t those drained through currency outflows, largely around the Labor Day holiday* In mid-September, the intra-monthly increase in Reserve Bank f l o a t and a return flow of currency supplied more funds than were drained through other f a c t o r s , including sales of U. S e Government s e c u r i t i e s , and net borrowed reserves declined. Subsequently in September, f l o a t declined, sales of Uo S. Government securities continued, and Treasury deposits were b u i l t up* Average net borrowed r e serves increased to more than 1500 million in the two weeks ending October 2 0 Not for publication ,8 m Table I* ixW Free Reserves (Excess reserves minus member bank borrowings; based on average of daily figures; in millions of dollars) Period All member New York Reserve City Country 1951** December 1955$ December 1*59 - 215 - - 161 — 16 - 83 - 26 - 338 550 338 1956$ March June July August September October November December - - 171* - 33 - 108 — 158 * 20I* - 192 - 211* - 91 - - 298 356 3W* 382 296 21*6 193 203 319 305 360 271* 380 358 393 3W* 1957t January February March April May June July August September 117 - 126 - 316 - 505 - 1*1*1* — 508 - 383 - u71 - hhh *• - - 1*0 - 53 - 253 - 210 - 165 - 1*8 •» 28 - 26 ~ 111* - 172 - 2!*9 - 21*2 - 263 - 367 - 1*88 - 1*52 - 1*00 -1*31 369 299 280 269 192 210 278 21*1* 351* Quarterly averages " 1955* First Second Third Fourth 251 158 - 127 - 365 - 29 1 - 112 - 192 - - 99 - 150 - 323 - 1*18 1*57 371* 375 31*1 108 195 139 339 213 195 151* 36 5o Chicago 1*1 123 101 300 101* 185 181 289 251* 256 Ill 1*8 72 93 Ill* 11*0 86 75 6k 67 95 1956: First Second Third Fourth - 310 till 230 128 - 170 - 96 - 157 - 166 - li*7 - 175 - 71 - 113 - 329 1*18 31*1 211* 336 278 338 365 1957* First Second Third - 108 - 185 - 1*33 - 88 - 196 - 21*1 - 115 - 11*1 - 56 - 221 - 373 - 1*27 316 22h 292 - - 256 - 120 - 259 — 2i|8 - 333 - 232 - - 166 173 378 1*51* 1*51* 216 1957* Aug* 28 Sept* 1* 11 18 25 Oct* 2 1*72 l|12 150 301* 519 51il 27 1*2 100 101; 165 127 355 1*23 1*69 It06 1*77 398 Note: Data for second half of September and October are preliminary* Digitized for Not FRASER for publication System holdings of U. S„ Government s e c u r i t i e s in September averaged $180 million above the August l e v e l , with higher outright holdings accounting for most of the difference. Between August 31 and September 30, however, System holdings of U* S* Government securities declined $230 million as sales during most of the month, following rather substantial purchases l a t e in August, were o f f s e t only in part by purchases at the end of September* These purchases continued into early October* Not for publication — 10 L.1+.3 — Table 5 Changes in Member Bank Reserves, with Relevant Factors {Monthly average of daily figures; Tn ^dllion§""of dollars) September Item July - Sept, Jan» - Sept. 1957 1956 + 122 + 21a - + 113 + 9 + 222 + 19 - 108 (signs :Indicate <s f f e c t on reserves] j - 153 + 632 - 2 1+1 - 267 + - 28 1+9 158 15 + + - U2 1957 1956 1957 1956 26 + 91 - 579 - 216 - 73 + 1+7 + 87 + 1+ - h71 - -108 - 200 — 16 Member bank reserve balances Total Required reserves 1 / Excess reserves l/~ Principal factors Currency in circulation Gold stock and foreign accounts Treasury operations Federal Reserve f l o a t Other factors Effect of above factors on reserves + 1+62 21 22 23 81+ + - 22 8 + 112 + - + 11+8 - 31+9 - Ihl + 602 + 710 + 163 + 92 + 321 + 229 -1,181 - 923 + 179 + 198 + 207 9 + 336 + 335 + 206 + 209 3 + 1 -1,W) -1,195 - 2a - 29 - 87I+ - 623 - 251 1 - 17 + 2 + 23 X + 300 - 12 13 12 288 38 + - 679 17 1+86 206 + + 291+ 1+9 191 191+ Federal Reserve loans and investments: Total U. S» Govt, securities Outright Repurchase agreements Acceptances Discounts and advances To member banks To others 1/ + 6 - 17 + 1 - 106 - h9 - Data for September 1957 are preliminary. Notes Changes are based on data for August and September; June and September} and December and September* Not for publication 1+7 1 L.4,3 Loans and Investments at A l l Commercial Banks ~~ (In b i l l i o n s of dollarsT Loans and investments Date U. S. Eeal SecuCon- A l l Gov't, Other Total secur- secur- loans Business estate r i t y Farm sumer other ities ities 1947: 1948: 1949: 1950: 1951: 1952: 1953: 1954: Dec; Dec; Dec; Dec. Dec. Dec; Dec; Dec, 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 116; 2 114.2 120;1 126.6 132; 5 141,5 145.5 155.7 69.2 62;6 67 ;0 62 ;0 61,5 63;3 63,4 69.O 9:0 9:2 10;2 12;4 13;3 l4;l 14 ;7 16.3 37.9 42 ;4 42; 9 52;2 57.6 64;0 67.4 70,4 18; 3 18,9 17.1 21,9 25 ;9 27.9 27 ;2 26,9 9;4 2 . 1 10;8 2;3 11;5 2;6 13:5 2;9 14;6 2;6 15 ;7 3;2 l6;7 3:6 18,4 4,5 1:7 2.9 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.9 5.0 5.2 3:8 4.8 5:8 7.4 7.5 9.4 10; 9 10,9 2.9 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.5 4,9 5.1 5.6 1955: Mar. 30 June 30 Sept.28 Dec. 31 152; 4 154 ;8 156.4 160.3 64;2 63.3 62 ;0 6l,6 17;0 16; 8 16; 9 16,7 27,4 71; 2 28.9 74; 8 30;5 77.5 82,0 1/33.2 19;0 4;1 19:8 4:5 20;6 4;2 1/20,8 5 . 0 4,9 4.4 3:9 4.5 11;2 12.1 12.7 13.2 5:8 6.2 6;6 6.5 1956: Jan; 25 Feb; 29 Mar; 28 Apr. 25 May 30 June 30 July 25 Aug. 29 Sept.26 Oct; 31 Nov; 28 Dec. 31 158.3 157; 1 158.5 158.7 158.4 159.3 158.3 159:8 160.7 l6l,4 162; 7 164,5 60; 9 59;2 58,6 58;2 57:3 56;6 56;2 57:2 57,0 57:5 58;2 58,6 l6;5 16; 6 16; 6 16; 6 l6;4 l6;5 16;3 l6;4 16;6 16; 3 l6;3 16,3 80.9 8l;2 83;3 83;9 84.7 86;2 85 ;8 86; 3 87:2 87;6 88;2 89.7 32.7 32 ;9 34;5 34,8 34,8 36; 1 35 ;8 36;4 36; 9 37;2 37;8 38,7 20;9 21; 0 21;2 21; 4 21;6 21;8 21;9 22 ;1 22;3 22 ;4 22 ;5 22,5 4;6 4;5 4;5 4;4 4;5 4;4 4:3 4;0 4;1 4;1 4;0 4.3 4;4 4.5 4.4 4;3 4;4 4;3 4.2 4;0 4.2 4;0 4.1 4.2 13.3 13;3 13,5 13.7 13.9 l4;3 14; 4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14;5 14.7 6;4 6.4 6.5 6;6 6; 7 6; 7 6;6 6;7 6;6 6:7 6;8 6.9 1957: Jan; 3Op Feb; 2?p Mar; 27p Apr, 24p May 29P June 26p July 31P Aug.28p Sept,25e 161.6 161.0 l6l; 3 163:7 163; 6 l64;0 163; 8 164; 3 164.8 57; 7 56;8 55;7 57,3 56;9 55:3 56;1 55.9 55.7 l6;2 16; 3 16 ;5 16;7 l6;8 l6;8 l6;7 l6;8 16,9 87,7 87; 9 89,1 89; 7 89;9 92;0 91; l 91,6 92,3 37.6 37;8 39;0 39; 0 38;9 40;5 39,6 39.9 40,3 22 ;5 22;5 22 ;5 22 ;5 22; 6 22;6 22 ;7 22;8 22.9 3;7 3:7 3:6 3:8 3:8 3:9 3:7 3:8 3.8 4.2 4;2 4;2 4.1 4;1 4;0 3:9 3:8 3.9 14,6 6:7 l4;6 6:7 14;7 6.7 15.0 6;8 15.3 6;8 15.5 6.9 15.6 7:0 15:7 7:0 15.8 7 . 0 p - Preliminary e - Estimated l/ Level of business loans increased by, and real estate loans decreased by $300 million at the end of October 1955 to correct c l a s s i f i c a t i o n errors. No back figures revised; most of the misclaeslfication probably occurred during 1955. Note: Data exclude interbank loans. Total loans are a f t e r and types of loans before deductions for valuation reserves. Consumer and "other loans" are partly estimated for a l l dates. Other data are partly estimated on a l l but June and December dates. Data for September 25# 1957 are estimates and subject to error. Banking Section, Board of Governors, Not for •publication October 10# 195?