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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of KANSAS CITY L h 3 ' ' JAN 2 3 1959 RESEARCH LIBRARY BANKING AMD MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN DECEMBER 1958 Summary. Total c r e d i t a t a l l commercial banks increased moderately in December r e f l e c t i n g s u b s t a n t i a l loan growth o f f s e t in p a r t by reductions in holdings of D. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s . The seasonally adjusted active money supply declined s l i g h t l y , but time deposits at commercial and mutual savings banks rose. U. S. Government deposits declined as i s usual in December. Member bank reserve p o s i t i o n s tightened f u r t h e r , moving from a p o s i t i o n of low f r e e reserves t o one of low net borrowed r e s e r v e s . Bank c r e d i t . Total c r e d i t at a l l commercial banks increased $1«5 b i l l i o n i n December, l e s s than half as much as i n December a year ago, as shown on Table 1. Loan growth of #2.5 b i l l i o n , however, was considerably l a r g e r than in December of any other recent ye a r , while a $1.2 b i l l i o n reduction in holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s contrasted with increases in the past t h r e e y e a r s — e s p e c i a l l y with the large expansion of 1957. U. S. Government s e c u r i t y holdings declined sharply during the f i r s t two weeks of the December reporting period (November 27December 10) following bank a c q u i s i t i o n s of most of the new $3 b i l l i o n t a x a n t i c i p a t i o n b i l l s issued by the Treasury on November 20. During t h i s period, commercial banks reduced t h e i r holdings #900 m i l l i o n , of which $300 million was outside leading c i t y banks. Over the next t h r e e weeks, holdings dropped an additional $300 m i l l i o n , a l l a t country and nonmember banks. On December 11, the Treasury began t o r a i s e #200 million i n new money each week through increasing the sale of Treasury b i l l s , including introduction of a new cycle of b i l l s carrying 26 week m a t u r i t i e s . This program was continued f o r s i x weeks through January 15 and | 1 . 2 b i l l i o n of new money was r a i s e d . At banks in leading c i t i e s , however, b i l l holdings were about unchanged between December 10 and January 7. Holdings of s e c u r i t i e s other than those of t h e U. S. Government increased $100 million at a l l commercial banks in December, considerably l e s s than l a s t y e a r ' s #$00 million growth. Total loans and investments at commercial banks increased llit.lt b i l l i o n in 1958, almost half again as much as the previous postwar record growth of #10.2 b i l l i o n in 19 5h. Increased holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s accounted f o r over half the c r e d i t expansion —almost $8 b i l l i o n — a much l a r g e r r i s e than in any other year. Holdings of other s e c u r i t i e s also showed record growth of $2.5 b i l l i o n . Not f o r p u b l i c a t i o n — 2 Table 1 L.l*.3 Estimated Changes i n Loans and. Investments a t All Commercial Banks (In b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) Item * # $ Total loans (excluding interbank) Business Real e s t a t e Security Agricultural Consumer All other 1958 1958 1958 1957 1957 1957 Nov. 27 Nov. 29 June 2k June 27 Jan. 1 Jan. 1 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 * 2.5 + 1.7 + 3.2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 0.9 O.ii 0.7 0.1 0.1 . 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 1/ 1.2 1.8 1.1 o.l 0.2 0.5 + 1.2 + % + + + + 0.3 0.1 O.lt 0.1 + 3.9 + 3.5 — O.lt + 2.1* + 0.3 + 0.9 y + 0.7 + + + + 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s - 1.2 + 1.3 + 1.9 + 2.7 + 7.9 - 0.3 Other s e c u r i t i e s + 0.1 + 0.5 + 0.3 + 1.1 + 2.5 + 1.7 + 1.5 + 3Ji + 5.5 + 5.0 +lluli + k»9 Total loans and investments ( l e s s interbank) - * Change during December Item * * Total loans (excluding interbank) Business Real e s t a t e Security Agricultural Consumer All other U, S. Government s e c u r i t i e s Other s e c u r i t i e s Total loans and investments ( l e s s interbank) . 1956 1955 195a 1953 1952 1951 + 1.5 + 1.8 + 1.5 + 0.7 + 1.0 + 1.0 + 0.9 v + 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.1 + + + + + + + + + + + — 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.1 + o.it 0.1 + ¥.6 + o.5 + 0.1 1/ + O.it + 0.1 + O.it — 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1 - 0.1 + O.li + 0.2 - 1.1 - 0.3 — 0.8 - 0.1 1/ + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 - 0.1 + 0.3 + 1.8 + 2.1 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.2 + 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 y 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 Mote:: Data f o r December 31# 1958, are preliminary estimates based on data reported by a sample of member banks. Revised estimates w i l l be a v a i l a b l e a t the end of January.... Not f o r p u b l i c a t i o n - 3 Table 1 (continued) Estimated Changes i n Loans and Investments a t All Commercial Banks (In b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) End of June t o end of December 1956 1955 1951 1953 1952 1951 + 3»k + 7.3 + 3.2 + 2.6 + lu9 + 2.9 + 2.6 + 0.7 - 0.2 - 0.1 + o.l* *• 0 . 2 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s + 1.9 - 1.7 + 5.5 + he 8 + 2.1 + 3.0 Other s e c u r i t i e s - 0.2 - 0.1 + o.8 + O.Zi + 0.1 + 0.6 + 5.1 + + 9.5 + 7.7 + 7.2 + 6.6 Total loans (excluding interbank) Business Real e s t a t e Security Agricultural Consumer All other Total loans and investments ( l e s s interbank) 5.5 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 o.li 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.3 i/ 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.3 End of June t o end of December Item 1950 19h9 191*8 191*7 + 7.5 + 1.9 + 2.7 + lt.lt + + 5.0 + l.l + 0.1 1/ + 0.8 + 0.6 + + + + + 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.3 + 0.9 + 0.6 1/ + (5.8 + 0.3 + 0.1 + 3.3 1.1 — 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.6 + 0.1 + 3.8 l.U - 2.0 1/ + 5.7 + 0.1 U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s - 3.7 + 3.8 - 2.2 - 1.3 - 9.7 Other s e c u r i t i e s + 1.2 + 0.7 V + 0.5 + 0.2 + h.9 + 6 .it + o.5 + 3.5 - 5.5 # Total loans (excluding interbank) Business Real e s t a t e SecurityAgricultural Consumer All other * $ lieU 1.0 0.6 0.1 l.i 0.2 Total loans and investments ( l e s s interbank) I/ T x i apw —in • Not f o r publication + 19U6 lt.0 + 2.2 O.lt 0.1 0.3 1/ + 0.1 L.U.3 — If.** Table 1 (continued) Estimated Changes i n Loans and Investments at All Commercial Banks (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Year ending December 31 Item Total loans (excluding interbank) Business Real e s t a t e SecurityAgricultural Consumer All other 1956 1955 1951 1953 1952 + 7.6 +11.6 + 2.9 + 3.U + 6 oil + 6.it + 0.6 — 0.7 ' + 2.3 + 0.9 + + + 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.2 1/ + 0.6 - 0.7 + 1.0 + + + + 5.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.5 ! + 2,u + Oel* + 1.0 + 1.5 + 0.2 + + + + , + + 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.9 0.3 U. So Government s e c u r i t i e s — 3.0 - 7.U + 5.6 : + o.i + 1.8 Other s e c u r i t i e s — O.li + o.U + 1.6 + 0.5 + 0.8 + iu2 + li*6 +10.2 + lui + 9.0 Total loans and investments (less interbank) Year ending December 31 Item Total loans (excluding interbank) Business Real e s t a t e Security Agricultural Consumer All other 1951 1950 1919 + 5.a + 9.3 + o.5 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + lt.0 1.0 0.3 o.5 0.1 0.3 iu9 2.0 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.9 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 19lt8 19U7 19U6 + h»k + 6.9 + h»9 + + + + + + 0.8 l.ii 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 + + + + + + ii.6 + 2.5 - 3.7 1/ + 1.2 + o.it Ii.O 2.2 1.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s — 0.5 - 5.0 + Ii.li — 6.6 — 5.6 =15.8 Other s e c u r i t i e s + 0.9 + 2.2 + 1.0 + 0.2 + 0.9 + 0.8 + 5.9 + 6.5 + 5.9 *•2.0 + 2.3 —10.1 Total loans and investments (less interbank) Not for publication Loans rose $3.9 b i l l i o n , s l i g h t l y more than i n 1957 but considerably l e s s than the postwar average growth of about $5«5 b i l l i o n . Over the year as a whole, t o t a l c r e d i t growth was about evenly divided between banks i n leading c i t i e s (representing l a r g e l y the c e n t r a l reserve and reserve c i t y group) and banks outside ( l a r g e l y country member and nonmember) « City banks, however, accounted f o r over t w o - t h i r d s of the increase in holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s but l e s s than a f i f t h of the increase i n loans. The increase in other s e c u r i t i e s was d i s t r i b u t e d f a i r l y evenly between the two groups. Over t h r e e - f i f t h s of the c r e d i t growth in 1958 occurred during the f i r s t half of the ye a r , a period i n which bank c r e d i t genera l l y d e c l i n e s . City banks accounted f o r n e a r l y $7 b i l l i o n of t h i s r i s e , r e f l e c t i n g growth of $6 b i l l i o n in holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s and $1,5 b i l l i o n in other s e c u r i t i e s , o f f s e t in p a r t by a reduction of $900 million in l o a n s . At banks outside leading c i t i e s , holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s were about unchanged but loan growth and increases in holdings of other s e c u r i t i e s added over $2 b i l l i o n to t o t a l credit. In the second half of 1958* however, c r e d i t growth at commercial banks was much l e s s rapid than i n the f i r s t h a l f , amounting t o $5.5 b i l l i o n . This was somewhat more than i n the second half of 1957 but considerably below the sharp increases of the e a r l y F i f t i e s . Loan growth accounted f o r over $3 b i l l i o n of the expansion and holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s f o r #2 b i l l i o n . Heavy purchases of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s during the August, October, and November Treasury financings were p a r t l y o f f s e t by sales a t other times. P r a c t i c a l l y a l l the c r e d i t growth occurred outside c i t y banks. Holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s increased $2.6 b i l l i o n at these banks and declined $700 million a t weekly reporting banks. Loans continued t o increase a t the smaller banks and also rose at c i t y banks during the second half of the y e a r . Business loans at commercial banks increased $900 million in December, about the same as in December of the past t h r e e years but about t h r e e times as much as i n December of 1951*. In the two weeks ending December 17, which included borrowing f o r income t a x and dividend payments, business loans at c i t y banks increased $500 million compared with $735 million in the comparable period l a s t year. A smaller increase i n borrowing by s a l e s finance companies t h i s year than l a s t accounted f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t of t h e ' d i f f e r ence in t o t a l t a x period borrowing in the two years. Not f o r publication — 6 L.U.3 Table 2 ® Changes i n Commercial and I n d u s t r i a l Loans 1 / (in millions of d o l l a r s ) Business of Borrower # Food processors Commodity dealers Trade concerns • Total Sales finance 3/ 1953 1952 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov. 20 Nov. 30 [Dec. 1 Dec. 2 Nov. 26 Dec* 31 Dec, 31 Jan. 2 J a n . It J a n . 5 Jan. 6 Dec.31 + + - 31 2l* 11*8 93 + - 19 83 251* 190 + + :- 61 109 19^ 2k + lh - 17 - 82 - 85 + - 10 - «• 36 11* + 35 - 210 132 128 - 211 + 68 + 2 - 86 — 16 + 160 + 569 + 602 + 531* *• 226 + 139 • 1*06 + 1*07 + 109 + 370 + 52 + 258 + 69 + 286 +• liii* + 21 - 11 - 193 + 75 + 31 - 1*3 + 1*3 — 20 - 27 3 + 89 ;•» 16 + 93 1* + 51 7 + 17U + 3 - 65 - 23 + 6 ' - 20 + 200 + 217 + 23 + 63 + 11* - 21 - 10 2 + 128 + 135 + 1*8 + 25 + 773 + 1*2 + 750 + 836 - 1*2 — 83 + 736 - 77 + 119 - 261* 2/- 79 £ 72 + Ij.65 - 133 + 815 + 708 + 659 £ + 332 + 753 - 72 - 33 + 1*6 + 63 uo > 192 *=• 3l* + 12 — 10 Includes GOG c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have declined $35 m i l l i o n . Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have increased $235 m i l l i o n . C l a s s i f i e d data are f o r a sample of about 210 banks r e p o r t i n g changes i n t h e i r l a r g e r loans5 these banks hold about 95 per cent of t o t a l commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans of a l l weekly reporting banks and about 75 per cent of those of a l l commercial banks. Data are preliminary f o r week of December 31, 1958. Not f o r publication e 1951* Prior t o week ending January 11, 1956, included changes i n a g r i c u l t u r a l loans® Note: • 1955 S + %/ 1956 RR 8 + 1 + 1 Total change 1957 1 Classified Unclassified ^ 1958 CVJ All other - t o t a l Metals and products T e x t i l e s , apparel • and l e a t h e r Petroleum, c o a l , e t c . Other manufacturing and mining Public u t i l i t i e s • Construction All other types of business 1/ — L.lt.3 - 7 Table 2 (continued) Changes i n Commercial and I n d u s t r i a l Loans 1 / (In millions of d o l l a r s ) Last Wednesday i n June t o l a s t Wednesday i n December Business of Borrower 1957 1956 1955 195U + 530 + lai + 9k +1,035 + 331 + 120 8 + 7lt3 + 822 + 739 + 178 +1,739 + w + I469 + 327 +1,276 + U9 8 + 539 + 120 +1,157 + 501 + 380 + 1 + 8S2 + 75U + 662 + 1U1 +1,557 CO Food processors Commodity dealers Trade concerns Total 1952 1958 - 108 + + + 32 -138 + 5Wi fc 70I4. All other - t o t a l Metals and products T e x t i l e s , apparel 1 and l e a t h e r Petroleum, c o a l , etc. Other manufacturing and mining Public u t i l i t i e s Construction * All other types of business - 172 452 - 147U - k9& + 883 71 +1,069 + 22k - 559 5U8 - 311 - 3& + 39lt + 1 - 231 18 - 159 + 150 6 + k28 + 71 + 208 + 26 88 - 101 + 102 — l+o + 250 - 116 + 23k + 52 - 161 + 183 - 19 + 72 + 350 66 + 63 + 27 + 106 + 62 225 82 - 5U + 18 - 23 + + + 359 + 58 + 176 + 370 + 132 + 98 + 191 +1,130 - 200 + 161 - 157 +2,719 - 260 +3,050 2 / - 162 y- + 630 + k33 91 k/+ 150 +2sk9k 59 + 930 - 296 +2,159 2/+2,888 y+ Classified Unclassified * Total change % Sales finance + 98 1953 539 lt/+ 583 +2,1*35 l/ Prior t o week ending January 11, 1956, included changes in a g r i c u l t u r a l loans* 2/ Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have declined $300 million, 3/ Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have increased $65 million. k/ Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have increased SI4IO million. Note: C l a s s i f i e d data are f o r a sample of about 210 banks l a r g e r loansj these banks hold about 95 per cent of t r i a l loans of a l l weekly reporting banks and about commercial banks. Data are preliminary f o r week of Not f o r publication 36 57 13 r e p o r t i n g changes i n t h e i r t o t a l commercial and indus75 per cent of those of a l l December 31, 1958. L.W ~ 3— • Table 2 (continued) Changes i n Commercial and I n d u s t r i a l Loans 1 / (In millions of d o l l a r s ) ~~ Last Wednesday i n December t o l a s t Weenesday i n December Business of Borrower r 1958 Food processors Commodity dealers Trade concerns 1 Total Sales finance All other - t o t a l Metals and products T e x t i l e s , apparel and l e a t h e r Petroleum, c o a l , e t c . Other manufacturing and mining Public u t i l i t i e s Construction . All other types of business Classified Unclassified * 1/ I 3/ h/ Total change 1956 1957 1955 1951* + 520 + 353 + 31*9 +1,222 60 + 8 + 1*73 + 1*21 + + - 129 128 71 72 - - 585 + 258 - 22h +1,293 — 23 306 *hf& + 439 +3,814* +1,291 +2,593 + 1*01 - 11*7 158 12 + 1*1*1 + 232 + 852 + + + i*i 57 108 + 53 + 696 61 + 1*28 + — 635 380 +1,565 - 612 - 1 ,015 + 953 + — - - - 125 118 9 252 3 1953 1952 + 7 176 79 2U8 + - 120 252 208 I6h - Ill* + 28 + 36 50 - 11*3 - 228 + 327 78 9 -1*125 + 1*65 + 9k +1,671 +1,111 + 291 + 521 + + 29 78 + 1*9 + 93 - 113 + 1*26 + 1*1*1 + 715 12 + 216 + 1*11 + 2li0 - + 63 99 153 + 1*1 + 103 5 + 112 59 + 31 + 325 + 513 + 238 + 90 + 163 +li,81i3 +1*,307 - 11*1 2 / 23 3 / - 681+ + 71* 273 V - 81 +1,91*8 - 150 +b,702 957 y - +1,798 mm — 2/+ii,28U 3 / - 10 Prior t o week ending January 13L, 1 % 6 , ]Included changes i n agriculi :ural l o a n s . ^ ui j.iiucicoo willvu ax-e eaujimavea t>u nave aecxxnea #ozj. m i l l i o n . In October 1 9 # , the l e v e l of business loans was increased by $318 million t o correct c l a s s i f i c a t i o n e r r o r s . No back f i g u r e s were revised; most of the m i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n probably occurred i n 1 9 # . Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have increased $1(10 million. Includes CCC c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n t e r e s t which are estimated t o have increased $175 million. *Note; C l a s s i f i e d data are f o r a sample of about 210 banks l a r g e r loans* these banks hold about 95 per cent of t r i a l loans of a l l weekly r e p o r t i n g banks and about commercial banks. Data are preliminary f o r week of Not f o r publication r e p o r t i n g changes i n t h e i r t o t a l commercial and indus75 per cent of those of a l l December 31, 1958. This year, large corporations were required t o pay 20 per cent of t h e i r current y e a r ' s t a x l i a b i l i t i e s i n December compared with 15 per cent l a s t December, but i n t e r n a l funds, p a r t i c u l a r l y from r i s i n g p r o f i t s , were l a r g e r t h i s year than l a s t . Banks i n New York City accounted f o r s l i g h t l y over 50 per cent of t h e tax-period borrowing, a l a r g e r proportion than in June or September, but about the same as a year ago. Subsequently, in the two weeks ending December 31, 1958, business loans increased $220 million compared with a decline of $70 million i n t h e comparable two weeks l a s t year. During the f i v e weeks ending December 31, loans t o s a l e s finance companies increased $1*60 m i l l i o n , accounting f o r over half the t o t a l growth i n business loans at c i t y banks. This was somewhat l e s s than these companies borrowed in the comparable weeks of the past three y e a r s . Loans t o metals processors and t o public u t i l i t y concerns also increased s u b s t a n t i a l l y and i n roughly the same volume as in 1957 and 1956. Loans t o t r a d e concerns dropped l e s s than in other recent years. Since mid-year, business loans at c i t y banks have increased $930 m i l l i o n . They declined #300 million in the comparable period l a s t year but rose $2.5 b i l l i o n t o $3 b i l l i o n i n the two previous years. In 195b they had increased $5b0 m i l l i o n . All the increase occurred outside New York City; at New York City banks, business loans declined #60 m i l l i o n . The increase a t banks outside New York during t h e second half of 1958 was n e a r l y as large as i n t h e comparable period of 1956 when business loan growth was s u b s t a n t i a l . However, loans t o s a l e s finance companies accounted f o r about onet h i r d of the growth outside New York i n 1958 but f o r only a n e g l i g i b l e p a r t of the 1956 growth at these banks. When s a l e s finance company borrowing i s omitted, growth in business loans outside Hew York has been only s l i g h t l y more than half t h a t of 1956. The volume of new loans made i n ten d i s t r i c t s reporting such information was somewhat l a r g e r i n the l a s t half of 1958 than in the same period a year agd and the volume of repayments was smaller. Seasonal borrowing by food processors, commodity d e a l e r s , and trade concerns increased $1 b i l l i o n over the second half of 1958, somewhat more than l a s t year, but l e s s than the average of other recent years. Loans t o s a l e s finance companies increased $270 m i l l i o n , more than i n any other year except 1955 and 1952, but the year-end l e v e l on outstanding loans t o these companies was considerably lower than i n any year since 195b* Loans t o public u t i l i t i e s , t o " a l l other businesses", including loans t o mortgage companies, and t o construction companies a l l showed increases Not f o r p u b l i c a t i o n k.lu3 - 10 Table 3 Estimated Changes i n Deposits and Currency (In b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) Item 1958 1958 1957 1957 1958 1957 Nov. 27 Nov. 28 June 2h June 27 J a n . 1 Jan. 1 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Dec. 31 Seasonally a d j u s t e d d a t a 1 / Demand d e p o s i t s a d j u s t e d Currency outside banks Total -§{2 - 0.2 — 0.8 2/ T-O Seasonally unadjusted cfeta 1 / Demand d e p o s i t s a d j u s t e d Currency outside banks Total Time d e p o s i t s Commercial banks Mutual savings banks U. S. Government d e p o s i t s Total + 2.9 - 0.2 + 2.7 + 1.1 + 0.8 • 0.3 - l.U +2.5 + + + + + + + Factors a f f e c t i n g d e p o s i t s and currency Bank loans and investments other than U. S . Govt. s e c . 3 / Commercial "" Mutual savings Bank holdings of U« S. Government s e c u r i t i e s : Federal Reserve Commercial Mutual saving and other Gold stock and f o r e i g n deposits a t F . R. Banks Other f a c t o r s 1/ 3.1 0.2 2.9 1.5 l.l o.H 1.0 5.3 + 2.9 T & - 2.2 + 0.2 - 2.0 + 5.2 - 0.1 + 5.1 - 1*6 + O.lt -1.2 + + + + + + + + h.7 + 0.5 + 5.2 + 2.7 •fr 2 . 1 + 0.8 — 0.5 + 7-h + U.2 + 0.3 > Iw5 + 8.7 + 6.8 + 2.1 + 0.2 +13.6 - 1.1 2/ - 1.2 + 6.9 + 5.6 + 1.7 + 0.2 + 5.2 8.3 0.8 9.1 2.3 l.U 1.0 5>*1 6.h (signs i n d i c a t e e f f e c t on d e p o s i t s and currency) + 3.3 + 2.7 +"0 + 0.1 + 1;.8 - 0.7 + 0.U + 2.0 2/ - 0.1 + 3.1 ^T72 + 1.9 - 0.2 - 0.1 — 0.8 + 2.6 + 0.1 - 1.2 - 0.1 2/ +U77 + 1.3 + 0.7 + 1.1 - 0.7 + 9.3 + 7.5 + 1.1 + 2.8 + 2.2 + 3.6 + 1.3 + 2.7 + 2.0 TT3 + 9.5 — 0.6 + 7.9 - O.lt + 0.2 - 2.2 - 0.1 - 3.0 - 1.8 - 0.7 - 0.3 - 0.8 + 0.8 — 0.6 Seasonally a d j u s t e d d a t a are f o r l a s t Wednesday throughoutj unadjusted da";a are f o r l a s t Wednesday except i n case of June and December c a l l d a t e s s when a v a i l a b l e . 2/ 3/ Less than $56 m i l l i o n . Total includes f o r e i g n loans on gold, holdings of bankers 1 acceptances a t t h e Federal Reserve, and loans t o f o r e i g n banksj changes i n t h e s e items are g e n e r a l l y r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l . In a d d i t i o n eren i f t h e r e were no changes i n these items, changes at commercial and mutual savings banks would not add t o t o t a l change which i s "net" because commercial banks exclude a l l interbank l o a n s , domestic and f o r e i g n . Note: Data f o r December 31, 1958, are p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t e s based on d a t a reported by a sample of member banks. Revised e s t i m a t e s w i l l be a v a i l a b l e a t t h e end of January. Not f o r p u b l i c a t i o n L.it.3 - 11 - Table 3 (continued) Estimated Changes in Deposits and Currency (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Tear ending December 31 Item Seasonally adjusted data 1 / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total Seasonally unadjusted data l / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total Time deposits Commercial banks Mutual savings banks U. S. Government deposits Total 1956 1955 1951* 1953 1952 + 0.9 + 0.3 + 1.2 + 3.0 + o.5 + 3.5 + 3.3 - 0.1$ + 2.9 + 1.7 + O.U + 2.1 + 3.3 + 1.3 + U.6 + + + + + + + 3.U + U.i + 0.9 + 0.6 + 1.5 + U.6 + 3.0 + 1.8 - 0.8 + 5.3 1*5 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.2 1.9 • 5.11 + o.U + + + + + 3.8 3.1 1.5 1.8 0.6 6.3 • • * + U.9 + 3.2 + 1.9 + 0.3 + 9.6 + 3.3 + 1.2 + U.5 + U.3 + 2.8 + 1.7 + 1.8 +10.6 Year ending December 31 Item • - 0.2 + 3.9 1951 1950 19U9 19U8 19U7 Seasonally adjusted data l / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total + it. 7 + 1.1 + 5.8 - 0.2 + 5.3 + 5.5 * 0.8 - 0.6 + 0.2 - 1.7 = 0.6 - 2.3 + 3.8 Seasonally unadjusted data 1 / Demand deposits adjusted Currency outside banks Total Time deposits Commercial banks Mutual savings banks U. S. Government deposits Total + + + + + + + + + 6.5 + + + + + — 1.6 - o.U + 3.8 - 0.3 >' " 3 ^ + 2.5 n.a. 1/ 2/ 6.0 0.9 6.9 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 9.3 + + + + 0.6 0.2 0.7 o.U 6.7 0.2 0.7 6.U 1.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 + 1.2 + + + + + 1.1 0.6 0.6 1.3 o.k He clo Ho + l.li + 0.9 - 1.2 + U.8 19h6 lie clo Ho 3,e He 3Lo + 7.5 + 0.2 777T + 5.5 + 3.7 + 1.5 -22.1 - 8.9 Seasonally adjusted data are f o r l a s t Wednesday throughout; unadjusted data are f o r l a s t Wednesday except in case of June and December c a l l d a t e s , when available. Less than $50 million. Not f o r publication L.ii.3 - 12 - l a r g e r than l a s t year and l a r g e r than the average over t h e f i v e years p r i o r t o 1957. Loans t o t e x t i l e , apparel, and l e a t h e r firms declined $230 m i l l i o n , somewhat more than l a s t year, and considerably more than in other years. While the reduction in loans t o metal producers, $1j50 m i l l i o n , was l e s s than l a s t year i t exceeded the average decline f o r recent y e a r s . Real e s t a t e loans increased f u r t h e r in December bringing growth over the second half of 1958 t o #1.8 b i l l i o n , more than in the comparable period of any other postwar year. During the f i r s t half of 1958, growth in these loans had t o t a l e d only $600 m i l l i o n , consi d e r a b l y more than in 1957> but considerably l e s s than in most other recent years. Over the year 1958, the #2.it b i l l i o n growth in r e a l e s t a t e loans was about the same as t h a t of 1955 and the two immediate postwar years. I t exceeded growth in a l l other years. Consumer loans are estimated t o have increased $100 million in December following l i t t l e change since July. On balance, the small net growth in the second half of the year o f f s e t e a r l i e r d e c l i n e s . Lack of growth in the consumer s e c t o r was associated with the c u r t a i l ment of durable goods purchases i n e a r l y 1958, e s p e c i a l l y new autos. The only other recent years in which consumer loans at commercial banks have not shown s u b s t a n t i a l growth were 1951 and 195ltA g r i c u l t u r a l loans increased f u r t h e r in December bringing t o t a l growth f o r the year t o $900 m i l l i o n , more than in any other postwar year except 19lt8 and 1953. These loans had declined in each of the t h r e e years previous t o 1958. Apparently increased c r e d i t demands on the p a r t of farmers followed favorable p r i c e and income developments i n the a g r i c u l t u r a l area. S e c u r i t y loans increased $700 million in December r e f l e c t i n g the usual end-of-year r i s e . Over 1958, these loans increased #300 million, following a small decline in 1957. They rose sharply over t h e f i r s t half of the year, l a r g e l y r e f l e c t i n g borrowing i n June associated with mid-month Treasury financing, but t h e y declined r a p i d l y in July and August. Deposits and currency. Seasonally adjusted demand deposit and currency holdings of businesses and individuals declined #200 million in December. At the month-end, the active money supply was 3.2 per cent above i t s year-ago l e v e l . This was t h e l a r g e s t yearly increase since 1952, but was only about half the peak postwar growth r a t e s in 191*6, 1950 and 1951. From January through July 1958, the money supply rose a t an annual r a t e of 8 per cent, but since J u l y , the annual growth r a t e was about 1-l/lj. per cent. Not f o r p u b l i c a t i o n Demand deposits adjusted increased $2.9 b i l l i o n i n December, the normal seasonal amount. Currency outside banks declined $200 million although normally, no change would be expected. U. S. Government deposits declined #1.5) b i l l i o n and t o t a l time deposits rose S i . 3 b i l l i o n . On balance, t o t a l deposits and currency increased S3.3 b i l l i o n r e f l e c b i n g i n addition t o the c r e d i t growth a t commercial banks, increases i n loans and investments at mutual savings banks and additional holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s a t Federal Reserve Banks. Over 1958, t o t a l deposits and currency increased #13.6 b i l l i o n , much more than i n any other postwar year; in 19$1, 1952, and 195U, other years of s u b s t a n t i a l growth, t o t a l deposits and currency had increased i n a range of $9 b i l l i o n t o $10.6 b i l l i o n . Time deposits at commercial banks increased #800 million in December r e f l e c t i n g i n p a r t the crediting of year-end i n t e r e s t payments a t many banks. Last year i n December, these deposits had increased #1.1 b i l l i o n . Time deposit growth, which had accelerated markedly in 1957, reached an unprecedented t o t a l in the f i r s t half of 1958 of #5«3 b i l l i o n , an annual r a t e of growth of n e a r l y 20 per cent. However, t h e r a t e of growth dropped sharply i n the second half of 1958 when these deposits rose only Sl.Jb b i l l i o n , about the same as i n t h e comparable period of several other recent y e a r s , but l e s s than the postwar record #2.1 b i l l i o n growth in 1957* Over the year the increase of $6.8 b i l l i o n exceeded t h a t of any other year. At mutual savings banks, on the other hand, s u b s t a n t i a l growth i n deposits continued throughout 1958. Increases i n both the f i r s t and second halves of the year were l a r g e r than i n any other year and deposits rose #2.1 b i l l i o n , but the percentage growth i n 1958 was l e s s than in the years 1952 through 1956. At savings and loan a s s o c i a t i o n s , growth in l a t e 1958 ( l a t e s t data available through November) continued t o exceed t h a t of the comparable period of 1957. Deposit turnover. The seasonally adjusted annual r a t e of turnover of demand deposits at banks outside New York and other f i n a n c i a l centers averaged 23.2 times i n the fourth q u a r t e r of 1958, about the same as in the t h i r d quarter but s l i g h t l y l e s s than the t h i r d quarter 1957 peak of 23.7 times. Turnover f l u c t u a t e d only s l i g h t l y in 1958 a f t e r declining in l a t e 1957. At banks in New York City, turnover averaged 50.3 times in the f o u r t h q u a r t e r of 1958, almost 3 per cent below the f o u r t h quarter of 1957. In contrast with behavior in other c i t i e s , turnover a t banks i n New York had continued t o increase r a p i d l y in l a t e 1957 and the f i r s t half of 1958 but subsequently dropped. Not f o r publication - Ik Table it L.lu3 Free Reserves (excess reserves minus member bank borrowings; based on average of d a i l y f i g u r e s ; in millions of d o l l a r s ) All member Quarterly averages 1957: F i r s t Second Third Fourth 1958: 1957: 1958: 1958: 1959: - First Second Third Fourth 313 508 31a 33 June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December November December December December December December 26 3 10 17 2I4. 31 January 7 Not f o r publication 108 1*85 1414.0 265 New York Reserve City - 115 - 11*1 — 56 - 105 - 221 373 1*28 320 316 221* 286 276 - 27 63 55 192 365 1*22 1*21* 277 88 196 2ltl 109 *" - 9 18 28 35 - 16 1* 1 17 185 181 289 251 11*1 80 105 - 1*8 28 26 115 115 123 77 - 1*88 1*52 1*00 1*33 389 31*2 228 210 278 21*1* 336 301 252 277 25 6 18 7 7 12 1* - 337 353 1*06 1*59 399 1*08 1*71 i*26 378 281* 268 280 508 383 2*71 1*66 3UU 293 133 - - - 122 32h 1*93 1*93 51*7 1*81* 51*6 383 95 111 20 30 - - I4.6 2I4 U2 3 51 7 16 22 79 17 1*3 79 — - - 3 3 16 31 - 114* 1 62 1*1* 89 57 56 22 201 187 189 199 19 21 19 18 1*7 55 - 169 302 197 185 151 223 216 251 268 233 383 213 91 - 253 1*33 22 72 51+ — 38 12 - 117 - 2 68 173 52 - - - 11*0 - 51 Country - - - Chicago - 50 — L.U.3 - 1$ - Bank r e s e r v e s . Member bank reserve p o s i t i o n s tightened somewhat f u r t h e r in December. Net borrowed reserves averaged #30 million compared with f r e e reserves of #20 million i n November, as shown i n Table ii. This was the f i r s t month banks have held net borrowed r e s e r v e s , on an average b a s i s , since December 1957. Reserve p o s i t i o n s tightened a t c e n t r a l reserve c i t y and reserve c i t y banks but eased s l i g h t l y at country banks. Borrowings averaged $3>60 million i n December, an increase of #70 million from November, but excess reserves also rose s l i g h t l y . Reserve p o s i t i o n s tightened i n l a t e November and e a r l y December when turn-of-the-month currency outflows, reductions i n f l o a t , and changes i n other f a c t o r s absorbed more reserves than were supplied through System purchases of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s . Subsequently, however, p o s i t i o n s eased somewhat and banks maintained f r e e r e s e r v e s , on the average, over t h e mid-month when reserves supp l i e d p r i n c i p a l l y by the usual sharp pre-Christmas r i s e i n float«and f u r t h e r System purchases of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s exceeded funds absorbed through currency outflows and increases i n required r e s e r v e s . Reserves tightened again i n l a t e December and e a r l y January when declines i n f l o a t and reductions i n System holdings of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s (in e a r l y January) r e f l e c t i n g s a l e s of s e c u r i t i e s held under repurchase contracts and b i l l r u n - o f f s absorbed funds supplied through the post-Christmas currency inflow. Over t h e month of December, as shown i n Table £, more reserves were absorbed through currency outflows (#61*0 m i l l i o n ) , increases i n required reserves (#3U0 m i l l i o n ) , f u r t h e r reductions in gold stock (#70 m i l l i o n ) , and changes i n other f a c t o r s draining reserves than were supplied through System purchases of U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s (#660 million) and increases i n Reserve Bank f l o a t (#U60 million)* I n t e r e s t r a t e s . In December, the e f f e c t i v e r a t e on Federal funds was generally 2-1/2 per cent although i t f e l l as low as 1 - 1 / 2 per cent e a r l y in the month and also dropped s l i g h t l y a t t h e month-end. Money market r a t e s increased s l i g h t l y f u r t h e r . The r a t e on k-6 months prime commercial paper rose from 3-1/8 per cent t o 3-l/k per cent; i t temporarily rose t o 3-3/8 per cent i n mid-December. The r a t e on 3-6 month finance paper rose from 2=3/li per cent t o 3 per c e n t . Not f o r p u b l i c a t i o n -16 L.U.3 - Table 5 Changes i n Member Bank Reserves, with Relevant Factors (Monthly average of d a i l y f i g u r e s ; in millions of d o l l a r s ) Item December JulV ~ December Januarv-Deceniber 1958 1957 + 359 + lj.62 299 1*38 - 521 — 115 + 338 + 396 398 358 - ij. 71 - ItO + 338 + 396 + 65 398 99 + 358 -1# 1*1*0 + 969 50 - 1*0 - 75 1958 1958 1957 1957 Member bank reserve balances Total Required reserves 1 / E f f e c t of reduction in requirements E f f e c t of deposit change Excess reserves 1 / + 21 Principal f a c t o r s Currency i n c i r c u l a t i o n Gold stock and f o r e i g n accounts Treasury operations Federal Reserve f l o a t Other f a c t o r s E f f e c t of above f a c t o r s on reserves + 80 (signs i n d i c a t e e f f e c t on reserves - 638 - 596 -1,331 -1,029 - 1*38 - 156 - 71 - 59 + 1*57 - 71* + 3 + 110 + 317 +132 - + 580 29 + + + + 196 156 273 118 -2,123 + 77 + 53 - 262 + 851* + 161 - 190 1* - 385 - 31* -1,680 - 286 -2,693 + 665 + 71*3 + 1*96 +1,981 + 723 +2,171* - 780 + 662 + 65k + 8 + 5 + + + + 565 3# 226 25 +1,563 7I75IB + 993 + 698 + 295 + 23 +2,330 - 783 T%83 + 71 + 5 - 91* + 908 8 Federal Reserve loans and investments: Total U« S e Govt, s e c u r i t i e s Outright Repurchase agreements Acceptances Discounts and advances: To member banks To others l/ " w + 1*1* - 1* + + 1*15 7 - + 295 2 +2,601 - 271 1* - 153 + 1 + 100 - 7 + - 22 12 Data f o r December 1958 are preliminary. Note: Changes are based on data f o r November and December; June and December; and December of each y e a r . Not f o r publication - 17 Deposits and Currency (In b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) L.it.3 Year or month Seasonally ad,Justed Seasonally money suppl; 1 / adjusted money CurDemand supply and Total rency deposits time dep. (2+3) outside adjusted banks a t com'! banks (1+7) Total U. S. Curdeposits Demand Gov't rency and deposits Total Commer- Mutual Postal deposits outside currency adjusted (7+8+9) c i a l savings savings banks (5+6+10 1/ +11) Time deposits End of Dec. 191*7 1918 19it9 1950 1951 1952 1953 195k 1955 1956 111.1 108.8 109.0 lllt.3 120.1 121.7 126.8 129.7 133.2 131.1 85.2 83.5 81.3 89.8 94.5 97.8 99.5 102.8 105.8 106.7 25.9 25.3 2U.7 21.5 25.6 26.9 27.3 26.9 27.U 27.7 U46.3 litlt.6 1U5.1 150.6 158.0 I65.it 170.5 176.5 181.6 185.0 87.1 85.5 85.8 92.3 98.2 101.5 102.5 106.6 109.9 lll.it 56.lt 57.5 58.6 59.2 61.5 65.8 70.it 75.3 78.it 82.2 35.2 35.8 36.1 36.3 37.9 1*0.7 13.7 16.8 it8.it 50.6 17.7 I8.lt 19.3 20.0 20.9 22.6 2it.lt 26.3 28.1 30.0 3.1t 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.it 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.3 3.6 lt.1 3.7 3.9 5.6 It.8 5.1 lt.lt it.5 26.5 26.1 25.U 25.U 26.3 27.5 28.1 27.9 28.3 28.3 172.3 172.7 173.9 180.6 189.9 200.lt 205.7 211.8 221.0 226.it 1957 s June 26 Sept 25 Dec. 31 135.2 133.9 133.2 107.3 106.2 105.1 27.9 27.7 28.1 189.2 189.0 189.3 105.6 105.5 110.3 86.it 87.7 89.1 54.0 55.1 56.1 30.9 31.2 31.7 1.5 l.lt 1.3 5.2 it.5 it.7 27.8 27.8 28.3 221.9 225.it 232.3 1958: Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 132.2 133.1 13U.0 135.0 135.5 135.lt 137.6 137.3 136.7 137.9 138.5 138.3 10lt.7 105.5 106.it 107.2 107.6 107.lt 109.5 109.2 108.9 110.0 110.3 110.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.0 188.8 190.7 192.8 19k.9 196.2 196.9 199.9 200.0 199.U 200.8 200.6 201.2 107.6 105.6 10it.6 107.2 105.8 106.2 108.1 107.5 108.1 , 110.8 111.6 liit.5 89.8 90.9 92.5 93.6 9U.6 95.5 96.lt 97.0 97.2 97.it 96.7 97.8 56.6 57.6 58.8 59.9 60.7 61.5 62.3 62.7 62.7 62.9 62.1 62.9 31.9 32.1 32.it 32.5 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.lt 33.5 33.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1,2 1.1 1.1 2.9 lt.2 6.it 6.0 6.1 10.0 It.8 6.2 5.0 lt.2 6.3 it.9 27.3 27.lt 27.it 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.8 28.6 227.7 228.1 230.9 23lt.lt 23U.3 239.5 237.2 238.7 238.1 2it0.it 2lt3.3 2it5.9 p 1/ 2/ 29 26 26 30 28 23 30 27 2lt 29p 26p 31p Preliminary Seasonally adjusted s e r i e s begins i n I?li7 and i s available only f o r l a s t Wednesday of the month. At commercial, savings s and Federal Reserve Banks, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ for#)ublication# FederalNot Reserve Bank of St. Louis L.U.3 - 18 - Loans and Investments at All Commercial Bgnka (In b i l l i o n s of dollars) Loans and investments Date 192*7$ 192*8: • 1919: 1950: 1951: 1952: 1953: 1952*: •1955: 1956s Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec, Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. 31 31 31 31 11 31 31 31 31 31 1957: Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. 30 27 27 2it 29 26 31 28 25 30 27 31 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept Oct, Nov. Dec. 29 26 26 30 28 25 30 27 22* 29p 26p 31p • • 1958: • • 116.2 112*. 2 120.1 126.6 132.5 12*1.5 12*5.5 155.7 160.3 162*. 5 161.6 161.1 161.2* 163.8 163.8 162* . 3 162*. 1 162* o 6 165.1 166.5 165.9 169.3 166.2 167.1 169.9 172*.0 173.8 178.2 176.2 178.3 177.9 179.8 183:7 u. s . Other Govt, secur- Total Business Real SecuCone s t a t e r i t y Farm sumer secur- i t i e s loans ities 69.2 9.0 18.2 37.9 9.2* 2.1 1.7 3.8 62.6 9.2 2*2.2* 18.9 10.8 2.3 2.9 2*.8 67.0 10.2 •2*2.9 17.1 11.5 2.6 3 . 1 5. 62.0 12.2* 52.2 21.9 13.5 2.9 2.9 7.2* 61.5 13.3 57.6 12*.6 2.6 3.2* 25.9 7.5 12*.1 63.3 62*.o 27.9 15.7 3.2 3.9 9.2* 63.2* 12*. 7 67.2* 27.2 16.7 3.6 5.0 10. 69.0 16.3 70.2* 26.9 18.2* 2*.5 5.2 10.9 61.6 16.7 82.0 20.8 33.2 5.0 2*.5 58.6 16.3 89.7 38.7 22.5 2*.3 2*.2 13.2 12*.6 57.7 56.8 55.7 57.5 57.1 55.5 56.3 56.2 55.9 57.3 56.9 58.2 57.7 58.3 59.6 62.8 63.1 62*.6 62*.1 66.1 62*. 7 66.0 m 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.6 17.2* 17.9 87.7 87.9 89.1 89.7 89.9 92.0 91.0 91.5 92.2 91.6 91.5 93.2 37.6 37.8 39.0 39.0 38.9 2*0.5 39.6 39.9 2*0.3 39.7 39.6 2*0.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.1 3.7 2*.2 3.7 2*.2 3.6 2 * . 2 3.8 2 * . l 3.8 2 * . l 3.9 2*.0 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 2*.0 3.6 2*.0 12*. 5 12*.5 12*. 12u9 15.1 15.3 15.2* 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.7 17.9 18.2 18.9 19.3 19.2* 20.0 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2* 90.5 90.6 91.5 91.9 91.3 93.6 92.2 92.1 92.6 93.3 91.6 97.1 38.8 38.6 39.2 38.1* 38.1 38.8 37.9 38.3 38.7 38.8 39.2 1*0.1 23.1 23.2 23,2 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.9 22*.l 22*.3 22*. 7 25.1 25.5 2*.2 2*.!* 2*. 2 2*.2* 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.2* 15.5 15.6 2*.2 2*.l 3.6 3.9 5.1 2*.l* 5.2* 2*.5 2*.6 2*.6 2*.6 2*.7 W 2*.2* 2*.i* 3.6 3.7 3.6 I:! :9o 15.6 15.6 15.6 m Preliminary Note: Data exclude interbank loans. Total loans are a f t e r and types of loans before deductions f o r valuation reserves. Consumer and "other loans" are p a r t l y estimated f o r a l l dates and have been revised beginning with June 1957. Other data are p a r t l y estimated on a l l but June and December c a l l dates. Data f o r December 31, 1958 are preliminary ^estimates based on data reported by a sample of member banks. Digitized Not forf oFRASER r publication January 20, 1959 Banking Section, Board of Governors,