Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : October 19, 1959
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Not for Publication DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS . H.lli October 19, 1959. CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS During the week ending October 16, corporations sold large issues, including the expiration of subscription rights, totaling $123 million and State and local governments sold issues amounting to $5l million, This week, large corporate issues are expected to total &109 million, A Public Housing Authority issue for $102 million and a foreign government issue for $20 million are also scheduled for sale* Bond yields - Changes in yields on outstanding bonds were minor last week, Yields declined for all types of obligations, except those for lower grade corporate bonds which increased slightly. Housing starts - Private nonfarm housing starts declined somewhat more than seasonally in September, but were little changed at a seasonally adjusted" annual rate of 1,325,000 units, according to preliminary Census Bureau estimates. While this rate was somewhat below the peak of l,l;3lia000 units set in April, it was the highest ever registered for the month of September, Through the first nine months of 1959» the seasonally adjusted annual rate of private starts averaged 1,375*000 units, slightly above the level attained in the same period in 1955 and close to the record pace set in 1950= Conventionally-financed starts through September of this year continued to represent a larger share of total private starts (6? per cent) than in the corresponding period of 1955 (li9 per cent) c The shift toward conventional starts has reflected a decline in VA-financed starts from 30 per cent of the total in the first nine months of 1955 to 8 per cent so far this year. Compared with the corresponding period of 1955, the number of conventional starts in 1959 was up by two-fifths and FtiA starts were up by one-sixth, but VA starts were down by nearly three-fourthso Stock market credit - Customer credit in the stock market (excluding that on U, S, Government securities) declined further in September, Totaling ^ billion, credit was about 6 per cent below the April peak, but slightly higher than at the end of September 1958 and at the end of the year, (Exact comparison is impossible because of the change in the data on bank loans,) The September decline in customer credit was largely the result of a decline in bank loans to "others"j the decline in net debit balances was small. H.lU Borrowing by member firms of the New York Stock Exchange maintaining margin accounts (excluding borrowing on U. S. Government securities) continued to decline in September, totaling $2.1 billion at the end of the month. Customers' net free credit balances, amounting to $1.0 billion, showed little change last month. These and other data on stock market credit are shown in the following table. End of month Sept. Aug. Customer credit Excluding U. S. Government securities - total Net debit balances Bank loans to "others" Net debit balances secured by U. S. Govt* securities Bank loans to others for purchasing or carrying U. S, Government securities Broker and dealer credit Money borrowed except on U. S. Government securities On customer collateral Money borrowed on U. S. Government securities Customers' net free credit balances r/ Revised. Change (Millions of dollars) k,kh3 3,250 1,193 156 r/b,m r/3,269 1,259 154 162 166 -h 2,11# 1,906 231 1,039 2,199 1,91*5 217 1,035 -50 -39 +Ui +U -85 -19 -66 +2 ' Stock prices - Stock prices, on balance, increased slightly la st week. Standard and Poor's index of 500 common stocks closed at 57.33 on October 16, .33 points higher than a week earlier. Trading activity continued to be moderate. Appendix 1 - Beginning with this report, an appendix,prepared by the Division of International Finance, relating to recent capital market developments in Canada will be included on a regular basis. More detailed information concerning recent capital market developments is presented in the attached exhibits. Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. HIGH-GRADE LOWER-GRADE BOND BOND YIELDS YIELDS r\ H.lli Exhibit li Tables for Exhibit A High-grade Bond Yields Date Corporate Aaa 1/ U. S. Govt, long-term 2/ Spread between U. S. Govt, and Corporate State and Aaa local Aaa State and local govt. Aaa y (Per cent) 2.15 (8/6) 19514 - Low 1957 - High 1958 - High Low 1959 - High Low 3-55 (5/2) (.57 (10/9) lt.09 (1/9) 3.07 (V25) L 3 0 (9/18) 3.83 (1/2) 1.90 3.U5 3.31 2.6k 3.65 3.06 Sept. 18 Sept. 25 Oct. 2 Oct. 9 Oct. 16 jd/ 14-52 k.Sh it. 57 it. 57 li.56 It. 30 it. 27 it. 21 it. lit it. 13 3.63 3.65 3.6it 3.61 3.58 2.85 (V23) lt.lit (9/27) ii.13 (10/10) 3.76 (10/18) 3.8U (12/26) (9/2) (8/29) (9/11) (5A) (9/2it) (3/26) .30 .60 .51 .22 .it3 .16 .30 .U7 .72 .34 .92 .53 .22 .27 .36 .it3 .it3 .62 .57 .53 .55 .67 Lower-grade Bond Yields Date Corporate Baa 1/ State and local govt. Baa y Spread between Aaa and Baa State and Corporate local govt. (Per cent) 195U - Low 1957 - High 1958 - High Low 1959 - High Low it.96 (1/3) it. 51 (7/11) 5.29 (10/16) it.83 (it/17) 2.93 (8/5) it. 51 (6/29) it.3it (9/11) 3.6it (5/1) it.it6 (7/2) 3.92 (3/26) .52 1.27 1.20 .77 .77 *56 .96 1.21 1.11 .93 .98 .79 Sept. 18 Sept. 25 Oct. 2 Oct. 9 Oct. 16 2/ 5.18 5.22 5.26 5.28 5.29 it.itit it.itit it.itit it.itl it.itO .66 .68 .81 .79 .80 .80 .82 3.Wt (12/31) 5.10 (11/29) .69 .71 .73 g/ Preliminaxy. . . ^ 1/ Weekly average of daily figures. Average term of bonds included is 25-26 years. 2/ Weekly average of daily figures. The series includes bonds due or callable int10 years or more. 2/ Thursday figures. Only general obligation bonds are included} average term is 20 years. Note.—highs and lows are for individual series and may be on different dates for different series. STOCK MARKET 11$t PRIVATE l»$7 PERMANENT Monthly NONFARM lfSI DWELLING UNITS 1959 STARTED Thouiondi ol Units Exhibit D - Tables for ExiiibiL C Stock Market Stock price index 1/ Date 53-1958 - High Low 59 - High Low 51i.ll 22.95 60.51 54.37 gust ptember pt. 25 t. 2 t. 9 / t. 16 2/ 59.W 57.05 56.73 57.20 57.00 57.33 Common stock yields 2/ (per cent) (12/24/58) (9/18/53) (7/31) (2/6) 3.30 6.25 3.08 3.3k . "3.13 3.26 3.28 3.2k 3.25 3.22 Trading Stock market customer credit Customers1 volume 2/ Bank (millions Total debit bal- loans to of shares) ances k/ "others" $/ (Mil]ions of do"-lars) k,k92 2,055 k.9 0.9 4.3 VL76U 2.k 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.3 rA,528 k,hk3 2.1 k,kk3 3,285 1,317 669 1,3H* r/3,k01 1,332 1,373 3,250 1,210 1,193 r/3,269 3,250 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,259 1,193 1,222 1,193 1,195 n.a. n . a . — N o t available. g/ Preliminary. 1/ Standard and Poor's ^mposlte index of 500 common stocks, weekly closing prices, 1941-43=10. Monthly data re averages of daily figures rather than of Fridays1 only. Highs and lows are for Fridays' data only. 2/ Standard and Poor's composite stock yield based on Wednesday data converted to weekly closing prices by federal Reserve. Yields shown are for dates on which price index reached its high or low, 3/ Averages of daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exoliange.' 4/ Ehd of month figures for member firms of the New York Stock Exchange which carry margin accounts; excludes alances secured by U. S. Government obligations. 5/ Wednesday figures for weekly reporting member banks. Excludes loans for purchasing or carrying U. 5. overnment securities• Prior to July 1, 1959, such loans are excluded only at banks in New York and Chicago. foekly reporting banks account for about )0 par oent of loans to others. For further detail see Bulletin. Private Permanent Nonfami Dwelling Units Started 1/ Date 1958 - Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1959 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Unadjusted Total Seasonally Conv, VA FHA Unadjusted adjusted annual rate (Thousands of units) 1,255 1,303 1,427 1,432 1,364 1,403 1,403 1,434 1,370 1,368 1,375 e/1,31J0 £/l,325 111 113 107 90 84 9k 118 137 . 13k 131 127 2/125 E/117 32 35 26 25 20 20 • 30 - 34 34 35 31 31 30 14 15 11 9 7 6 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 65 64 70 55 57 67 78 93 89 85 ,85 B/77 1/ Total starts are BLS estimates. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins; all unite in an apartment structure are considered started at that time. FHA and VA starts are unite started under commitments by these agencies to Insure or guarantee the mortgages. As reported by FHA and VA, a unit is started when a field office receives the first compliance inspection report, whloh io made before footings are poured in none oases but normally after the foundations have been completed. Capehart military housing units are excluded. Conventional starts are derived as a residual, although total and FHA and VA starts are not strictly comparable in concept or timing; they Include both unit* financed by conventional mortgages and units without mortgages. Exhibit E H.llt Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) • •-••• - 1959 New capital Corporate 1/ State and local 2/ 1 1958 1 1958 1 1957 1959 1 1957 January Februa ty March 810 745 631 728 April May 899 1,140 87b 597 887 1,453 1,107 54 0 l,llh 1,003 924 973 862 518 920 1,090 789 1,076 July August September October November December 1st 2nd 3rd Uth quarter quarter quarter quarter 1st half Three quarters Year PS e/650 e/800 2,216 2,% e/1,888 3,139 2,623 2,760 2,300 : 4,780 5,762 9,522 10,823 e/6,668 1,060 1,065 1,320 • ? § 3,445 3,149 2,899 2,954. 6,594 9,493 12,447 ' 636 856 645 812 953 511 742 572 506 931 592 981 798 895 551 765 546 393 566 516 e/488 806 403 651 529 584 431 e/600 456 474 435 2,138 2,504 2/1,571 • 2,276 2, 2I4I4 4,6U2 2/6,213 4,520 1,860 1,365 6,380 7,746 698 633 698 1,820 1,704 1,544 2,029 3,524 5,069 7,099 Excluding finance companies h/ 1st 2nd 3rd Uth quarter quarter quarter quarter 2,011 2,409 e/1,586 Year 2,899^ 2,5% 2,731 2,213 10,129 3,237 2,889 2,582 2,810 11,518 1/ Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of net proceeds. 2/ Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts. 3/ Includes $718.3 million AT&T convertible debenture issue. 5/ Total new capital issues excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance companies. Exhibit F Other Security Offerings 1/ (In millions of dollars) Long-term Foreign government 2/ Federal agency 3/ ~195>9 I 1950 ' 1WT "19^8 "19F9 1957 January February March 77 59 2 196 53 April May June 56 50 1*2 139 198 123 120 us 1*2 73 1 9 5 17 28 7 30 October November December 58 123 7U 1* 60 1 Year 992 July August September — eh 19 30 199 1,163 251 72 523 125 175 60 161* . 215 100 2,321 507 Short-1 State and local government h/ 572 Federal agency 37" January February March 190 U28 295 233 1*60 273 1*55 11*7 326 359 500 1*89 371 208 11*1* 638 1*30 505 April May June 563 lai 21*5 357 351* . 261* 205 337 153 486 675 289 209 161 329 336 1*69 501 289 1*23 369 272 272 252 727 365 1*37 . 206 330 221* 370 512 231 1*15 21*3 303 91* 159 1*51* 111* 137 1,238 255 116 3,271* 3,098 5,51*3 July August September 21*6 1*67 . E/325 October November December Year 3,910 665 2/ Preliminary. 1/ Data presented in this exhibit differ from those in Exhibit E in that refunding issues, as well as new capital issues, are included. Long-term securities are defined as those maturing in more than one year. 2/ Includes securities offered in the United States by foreign governments and their subdivisions and by international organizations. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 3/ Issues not guaranteed by the U. S. Government. Source: long-term, Securities and Exchange Commission•, short-term, Federal Reserve. h/ Principally tax and bond anticipation notes, warrants or certificates and Public Housing Authority notes. In some instances .PtiA notes included may have a somewhat longer term than one year. Source: Bond Buyer. Exhibit G .lit Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1/ Proceeds of Large Issues Offered (Millions of dollars) Corporate Month 1958 - September October November December 1959-- January February March April May 82 5 259 2# 305 369 3h0 215 359 3b2 July August September 110 363 199 State and local government 281 Other 2/ 288 172 259 229 335 551 369 563 .258 635 19it 18 209 100 79 17it 35 176 20 50 60 50 98 175 263 2 lit Large Individual Issues Offered October 1 through 16 Issuer type 3/ Amount Coupon (millions Maturity Offering Rating of net inter- yield dollars) est cost CORPORATE 1st mt%. bds. .15.0 1989 Boston Edison Co. Com. stk. 18.6 So. New England Tel. Co. Deb. Columbia Gas System, Inc. 25.0 1981* 20.0 Pfd. stk. Northern Natural Gas Co. Com. stk. Boston Edison Co. I5.it 1st ref.mtg.bds.50,0 1989 Philadelphia Elec. Co. Com. stk. American Elec. Pwr. Co. 57.6 5 1/U 5 3/8 5.17 5.38 Aaa A U.93 STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT Port of New York Authority Rev.-Ut. Wayne Co., Mich. 0.0. G.O. Denver, Colo. G.O. New York, New York State of New Hampshire 0.0. OTHER None 25.0 1989 . 26.0 1962-68/65 17.0 1970-98 18.0 1960-7U 16.0 1960-88 it. 37 it.08 3.65 3.65 3.22 it. 31 A 3.50-it.00, , A 3.25-3.75^ Aa 3.00-3.70 A 2.60-3.35 Aaa G-2 Footnotes 1/ Includes corporate and other security offerings of $1$ million and over; State and local government security offerings of $10 million and over. 2( Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal agencies. 3/ In the case of State and local government securities, G. 0. denotes general obligations; Rev.-Ut., revenue obligations secured only by income from public utilities; Rev.-Q.Ut., revenue bonds secui'ed only by revenue from qua si-utilities; Rev.-S.T., revenue bonds secured by revenue from specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely b> lease payments. U/ Is of 1993 not reoffared. II.Ik Exhibit H Forthcoming Large Long-tern Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1/ Expected Proceeds from Forthcoming Large Issues Date of computation 1958 - Sept. 30 Oct. 31 Nov. 28 Dec. 31 1959 - Jan. 30 Feb. 27 Mar. 31 Apr. 30 May 29 June 30 July 31 Aug. 31 Sept. 30 Subsequent to During month following date shown date shown State and Corporate Other 2/ Corporate State and Other 2/ local govt. local govt. 113 20k 301 210 270 198 396 216 287 . 165 238 198 37k 295 258 229 261 551 292 550 251 2k7 lk6 . 356 385 270 216 326 liOl 370 365 27 9 ii76 3k6 332 272 305 517 69k 71 75 U5 20 50 50 25 52k 675 683 515 856 1*81 761 517 761 500 1|06 lj02 U70 71 75 k$ 20 IP50 50 25 Forthcoming Large Offerings, as of October 16 Type •^American Educational Life Ins. Co. Southern Bell Telephone & Telegraph Texas Gas Transmission Corp. Hilton Hotels Corp. Florida Power & Light Co. Puget Sound Power & Light Co. Northern Natural Gas Co. Central & South West Corp. American Telephone & Telegraph Co. *Gulf States Utilities Co. Commerce Oil Refining Corp. Sylvania Electric Products, Inc. I Amount Approximate date (minions of offering I of dollars) Com. stk. Deb. Pfd. stk. Sub. S.F. deb. 1st mtg. bds. 1st mtg. bds. S.F. deb. Com. stk. Deb. 1st mtg. bds. Deb., bds. & com. S.F. deb. 23.8 70.0 15.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 25.0 15.0 250.0 16.0 15.0 25.0 Oct. 20 Oct. 21 Oct. 22 Oct. 27 Oct. 28 Oct. 29 Oct. 29 Oct. 30 Nov. 17 Nov. 25 Indefinite Indefinite G.O. Rev.-Ut. 102.1 23.3 Oct. 20 Oct. 27 G.O. G.O. Rev. G.O. 21.2 20.0 25.0 14.0 STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT Public Housing Authorities Consumers Public Power Dist., Neb. Los Angeles Flood Control Dist., California Baltimore Co., Md. Pennsylvania General State Auth. *S;tate of Mississippi Oct. Oct. Oct. Nov. 27 28 28 10 ti„iu H-2 Forthcoming Large Offerings, as of October 16 (Cont'd) Issuer Type Amount Approximate date (millions of offering of dollars) STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT (Cont.'d) Columbus,' Ohio Chesapeake Bay Ferry Commission G.O. Rev.-Ut. 10.0 190.0 Dec. 1 Indefinite OTHER Montreal, Canada Ext. S.F. deb. 20.0 Oct. 20 *—Included in table for first 1/ Includes corporate and other issues of $15 million and over; State and local government issues of $10 million and over. 2/ Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal, agencies. Note.—Deletions for reasons other than sale of issue: None. H.lii Yields on New and Outstanding Electric Power Bonds, Rated Aa and A 1/ Aa-rated offering yields A-rated offering yields Amount above Amount above Actual Actual (per cent) seasoned yields (per cent) seasoned yields (basis points) (basis points) 1952 - 1958 High Low 5.00 (9/1V57) 2.93 (3/31/51+) - Jan. 7 20 28 Feb. 18 Mar. 11 25 26 31 Apr. 3 15 16 29 May 1 " 13 14 20 21 26 17 26 July 9 10 15 30 Aug. 5 20 Sept. 18 4.60 4.4o2/ 4.43 4.43 4.47 4.6o 4.552/ 87 -3 34 hO 4 11 9 9 13 22 21 7 4.95 4.95 5.oo 4.95 4.93 4.85 4.90 24 5.50 (11/7/57) 123 3.00 (3/17/54) -15 It. 752/ 23 4.67 18 4.85 5.06 17 13 5.13 27 4.92^ 5.10 5.10 6 24 19 5.10 19 13 5.00 22 5.65 60 1/ Covers only 30-year first mortgage bonds, as reported in Moody's Bond Survey. Except where indicated, the actual yield figure and the amount above seasoned yields are averages of offerings during the indicated period and of the differences between these new offering yields and yields on seasoned issues of similar quality for the same day. Average maturity for the seasoned issues varies from 26 to 28 years. 2/ Provides for a 5-year period during which issue may not be called for refunding at a lower coupon rate. Other issues have no such provision. 2/ Provides for a 7-year period during which issue nay not be called for refunding at a lower coupon rate. Appendix 1 MONEY AND CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN CANADA During the week ending October lU money market yields continued to decline for the fourth consecutive week. The rate on the 91-day Treasury bill was at 5*01 per cent compared with the midSeptember peak of 5.88 per cent and the mid-August peak of 6.16 per cent. Yields on the shorter bonds declined about 50 basis points from mid-September peaks but those for long-term securities were only fractionally lower. Total municipal, provincial and corporate, borrowings in New York this year through October 13 amounted to $333 million compared to $385 million and $555 million for the same periods in 1958 and 1957• Money market rates - Last Thursday* s auction rate on 91r=day bills declined for the fourth straight week to reach 5.01 per cent compared to 5.25 per cent the week before. The rate on 182-day bills also continued to fall, dropping to 5.55 per cent from 5.91 per cent. The average rate on day-to-day loans was somewhat higher last Thursday than the week before, rising to I4..63 per cent from U.35 per cent. Bond market developments - A $6 million City of Winnipeg issue was reported to have,been bought-privately by U.S. investment houses last week. Today a $20 million City of Montreal issue is being. offered for bids in New York. In Canada, yields on medium- and long-term government bonds continued to ease during last week with declines ranging from 6 to 22 basis points. A particularly sharp drop occurred in the yield of the big U-l/2 per cent 1983 issue. On Friday the bid price of this issue had risen to 93.875 compared to its low price of 90.875 ten dqys earlier. At midweek, spreads between comparable Canadian and United States Government securities' yields were? loOl per 0.87 per 0.65 per loll per lo09 per the the was the cent cent cent cent cent on on on on on 91-day bills 182-day bills a 9-year bond a 20-year bond a 36-year bond. ^ / f . I Stock prices - Although Canadian steels and banks strengthened, industrial average on the Montreal exchange slipped a bit during week ending last Friday. At Friday'p close, the industrial iwerage 12 per cent below the year's high to date and one per centroelow close the week before. Appendix 1-2 Selected Government of Canada Security Yields Date 3-month Treasury •billsl/ Intermediate Govt* bondr/ Longterm Govt, bondl/ 19$U-$5 - Low 1957 - High 1958 - High Low 1959 - High Low 0.78 4.08 3.6$ 0.87 6.16 3.2$ 2.61 4.81 U.$2 3.31 $.30 4.4$ 3.13 U.3$ 4.42 3.78 $.30 4.4l 1.06 0.47 2.96 0.30 Sept. 23 30 Oct. 7 14 $.60 $.$0 $.2$ $c01 $.24 $.30 $.27 $.21 ^24 $.30 $.28 $.18 1.06 1.17 1.18 1.11 1.43 l.$4 1.06 1.01 Spread between Canadian & U.S. rates long-term 3-mo. 3-moa . bonds/ bills?/ Discount on 3-mo. Canadian dollars/ 1.90 1.66 2.19 1.66 f Average yield at weekly tender on Thursday following Wednesday date shown. Government of Canada 2-3A per cent of June 1$, 1967-68. Government of Canada 3-lA P®r cent of 1979* %/ UoSo Government 3-lA per cent of 1978-83. Government of Canada 3-VU per cent of 1979® $/ Spread between average auction rates % on Monday preceding Wednesday date shown for the United States 5 on Thursday following Wednesday date shown for Canada. 6/ Spread between 3-months forward and spot price of the Canadian dollar, expressed as per cent per annum, on Friday following Wednesday date shown. Averages of Selected Bond Yields Date 19$U~$$ - Low 19$7 - High 19$8 - High Low 19$9 - High Low June 1 July 31 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 10 Provincials]/ 10 Municipals^/ 10 Public t Utilities!/ 10 Industrials!/ Govt, of Canada long-term?/ $.14 3.6$ $.77 $.30 $.02 6.60 $.38 3.69 $o$0 $.03 U.81 6.01 $.14 3.93 $.77 $.12 4.78 6.0$ $.22 2.82 4.43 4.42 3.79 $.80 U.U8 $.39 $.61 $»97 6.19 $.71 $.86 6.20 6.60 $.47 $»$7 $.78 6.01 $.1*2 $.60 $.78 6.0$ 4.94 4.97 $.29 $.80 3.27 $.18 $.08 4.46 6.19 V Average term of bonds.,included is lk-16 years. Source? McLeod, Young, W e & and Co., Ltd. 2/ The quotation used in 19$8 and 1959 is for Government of Canada 3-1/4 per cent June 1, 1974-76.