Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : March 8, 1956
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Not for Publication d e c o t o o i l e d a f t e r s i z months H.lU March 8, 1956 CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Large s e c u r i t y issues o f f e r e d f o r new c a p i t a l during the week ending March 2 represented S t a t e and l o c a l government financing only,- and t o t a l e d $153 m i l l i o n . Corporations are expected to f l o a t 0123 m i l l i o n of large public issues t h i s week, and State and l o c a l governments are scheduled to o f f e r $59 mi l l i o n . There has been a s u b s t a n t i a l increase over the past week in t h e volume of large public issues scheduled to be o f f e r e d by corporations during the remainder of the. month; as a r e s u l t , the March estimate of t o t a l corporate new c a p i t a l issues has been r a i s e d to $900 million as may be seen in Exhibit D. Bond y i e l d s - Yields on State and l o c a l government Aaa and revenue bonds and on U. S. Government long-term (old s e r i e s ) obligat i o n s rose s l i g h t l y l a s t week. Other bond y i e l d s remained s t a b l e . Daily f i g u r e s show an increase in the Treasuiy obligation y i e l d s during the f i r s t p a r t of t h i s week. Yields on newly-offered e l e c t r i c u t i l i t y bond issues with Aa-rating are currently t h r e e basis points above, and those with A-rating are t h r e e basis points below, y i e l d s on outstanding bonds of corresponding quality and similar terms as shorn i n Exhibit G. In mid-February the o f f e r i n g y i e l d on an A-rated bond was eight basis points below t h e seasoned.yields. Stock p r i c e s - Stock p r i c e s , as measured by the SEC index of 265 common stocks, rose to a new high of 27k.5 in the week ending March 2, in an average t r a d i n g volume of 2.8 million shares a day. According t o daily indexes, p r i c e s increased moderately on Monday and decreased very s l i g h t l y on Tuesday and Wednesday of t h i s week. S t a t e and Local Government Security Offerings in 1955 S t a t e and l o c a l governments offered $6.0 b i l l i o n of longterm security^issues in 1955, compared to $7.0 b i l l i o n of such f i nancing inT.95U, as shown i n the attached t a b l e . As in the previous y e a r , the major type of issuing authority in 1955 was State governments which f l o a t e d $1.U b i l l i o n of i s s u e s , #600 million l e s s than in 195U« Municipal and s p e c i a l authority o f f e r i n g s were also down s u b s t a n t i a l l y from the 195U volume. On the other hand the volume of school d i s t r i c t and county and township i s s u e s increased. -2- H. lit Long-Term S e c u r i t y Issues of S t a t e and Local Governments 1952-1955 ( I n m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) • 1955 Issuing a u t h o r i t y : State County and tornship Municipality School d i s t r i c t Special authority Unidentified l / • Total Purpose of i s s u e : New c a p i t a l t o t a l Schools Highways, b r i d g e s , tunnels Residential buildings Hospitals and i n s t i t u t i o n s Sewer and water Misc. public s e r v i c e e n t e r p r i s e s Recreation P o r t and a i r p o r t Veterans aid I n d u s t r i a l buildings Other Unidentified 1 / Refunding 195k 1,W8 U72 1,313 1,005 1,097 68} 1953 1952 2,Ok7 kk2 1,601 828 1,163 587 767 271 1,052 83k 2,091 5k3 718 271 966 537 1,305 6lU 5,976 6,969 5,558 k,klO 5,911 &T89 hhZL kj096 1,516 1,362 570 98 712 169 ill 102 169 u 190 680 1,132 2,136 U56 77 67k 597 58 88 162 2 533 5# 1,320 1,588 506 133 6U7 156 k5 k9 lkl 7 3kk 5U2 38 U19 223 2k 60 100 5 28 3 61k 180 82 31k 5,976 6,969 5,558 k,klO 1,109 1,732 135... 3,72k 3,21k 31 3,123 1,567 568 2,9k7 l,k63 5,976 6,969 5,558 k,klO 65 Total Type of i s s u e : General o b l i g a t i o n Revenue General revenue 2 / Total . J J . / I s s u e s of l e s s than £>500,000 not f u r t h e r c l a s s i f i e d . 2/ Total of i s s u e s with proceeds of yS m i l l i o n or over. Note.—Details may not add to t o t a l s because of rounding. Source—Bond Buyer and Federal Reserve. 969 938 h2k H.lU -3- Purpose New c a p i t a l i s s u e s t o t a l e d $5*9 b i l l i o n i n 1955# 13 per cent l e s s than i n t h e year e a r l i e r but s t i l l the second l a r g e s t volume .on r e c o r d . Refunding accounted f o r s l i g h t l y more than one per cent of t o t a l o f f e r i n g s l a s t y e a r . Most of the decline in S t a t e and l o c a l government s e c u r i t y o f f e r i n g s l a s t year occurred in highway, bridge and tunnel i s s u e s , which dropped from § 2 . 1 b i l l i o n t o $1.4 b i l l i o n r e f l e c t i n g a smaller number of t o l l road i s s u e s . "Only one t o l l highway i s s u e of over tlOO m i l l i o n was o f f e r e d i n 1955 compared with s i x i n 1954* Miscellaneous p u b l i c s e r v i c e e n t e r p r i s e o f f e r i n g s were also cons i d e r a b l y l e s s than i n 1954, t o t a l i n g $170 million i n c o n t r a s t t o ' almost $600 m i l l i o n . However, most of t h i s d i f f e r e n c e can be accounted f o r by the $335 m i l l i o n issue which t h e New York S t a t e Power Authority f l o a t e d in December 195*4 • School c o n s t r u c t i o n i s s u e s are among t h e few groups of o f f e r i n g s which have shorn a steady increase in volume s i n c e 1952. Proceeds from such i s s u e s grew t o $1.5 b i l l i o n in 1955, from $1.4 b i l l i o n i n 1954 and $1,0 b i l l i o n in 1952. O f f e r i n g s f o r other purposes were g e n e r a l l y a t about the same l e v e l as i n the t h r e e e a r l i e r y e a r s . Type • The volume of revenue i s s u e s and i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p to t o t a l volume was much smaller i n 1955 than i n t h e previous year—$1.7 b i l l i o n or 29 per cent i n c o n t r a s t t o 33-2 b i l l i o n or 46 per cent i n 1954—but near t h a t of 1952-53• This was t h e r e s u l t of the heavy volume of t o l l road i s s u e s f l o a t e d in 1954 but not in 1952, 1953 or 1955* General revenue i s s u e s increased $100 m i l l i o n from 1954 t o 1955» but the volume did not approach t h a t of 1953 when almost 3570 m i l l i o n of such i s s u e s were f l o a t e d . More d e t a i l e d information concerning r e c e n t c a p i t a l mark e t developments i s presented i n t h e attached e x h i b i t s . Business Finance and C a p i t a l Markets S e c t i o n , Division of Research and S t a t i s t i c s , Board of Governors of t h e Federal Reserve System. EXHIBIT A H I G H - G R A D E B O N D YIELDS | CORPORATE A a o U. S. G O V E R N M E N T - I GOVERNMENT A a o jj U. S. Govt.,.long-term g/" Corporate Aaa 1 / Old s e r i e s New s e r i e s Spread between U. S. Govt. State and l o c a l govt. (old s e r i e s ) and CorporateIstate i Aaa 3 / Aaa [ l o c a l Aaa (Per cent) 3-U2 2.99 3.09 2.85 3.17 2.91 (6/19) (1/9) (1/8) (U/23) (12/23) (1/7) 3.1U (1/6) 3.07 (3/2) 3.15 2.78 2.7U 2.B 2.9k 2.62 (6/6) (12/2i (1/9) (8/7) (8/5) (1/7) 2.90 (1/6) 2.80 (2/17) 2.92 (2/3) 2.92 £ 3 3.07 3-07 3-07 3.03 ( 8 / 5 ) 2.89 (6/10) 2.96 (1/6) 2.93 1:8 1/ Weekly average of d a i l y f i g u r e s . I S 2.9U 2.73 1.98 2.21 1.90 2.3U 2.05 2.29 2.17 2.21* 2.18 2.17 2.17 2.18 (6/25) (1/8) (6/10) (9/2) (9/8) (5/26) (1/5) (2/23) .38 .19 •U3 -32 • 3U .13 .28 • 23 • 8lt .30 .61 .29 .70 • 5U .66 .56 .28 .27 .27 • 2h • 23 •57 • 63 • .63 .66 .66 Average term of bonds included i s 25-26 ^ 2 / Weekly averages of d a i l y f i g u r e s . The old s e r i e s includes f u l l y taxable, marketable 2 1/2 per cent bonds due or f i r s t c a l l a b l e a f t e r 12 years through September 1955, and those due or c a l l a b l e in 10-12 years t h e r e a f t e r ; the average term to f i r s t c a l l of t h e bonds included declined ftom Hi years in early 1953 to 11 1/2 years in early 1956. The new s e r i e s i s comprised of the 3 per cent bond of 1995 and the 3 1/h per cent bond of 1978-83* V Thursday f i g u r e s . Only general obligation bonds are included; average term Ts 20 y e a r s . Note.—Highs and lows are f o r individual s e r i e s and may be on d i f f e r e n t dates for d i f f e r e n t s e r i e s . L O W E R - G R A D E B O N D YIELDS Per cent per annum CORPORATE Boo ' t i l STATE AND LOCAL GOVT. Boo I- I STATE AND LOCAL GOVT. REVENUE Dow-Jon \W-L-I Corporate Baa 1 / Date - S t a t e and l o c a l govt. Baa 2 / S t a t e and l o c a l govt, rev. 3/. (Per c e n t ) 1955 " High 3.89 3-50 3.7k 3.UU 3.63 1956 - High Low 3.62 (1/6) 3-58 ( 3 / 2 ) 3.79 2.96 3-32 2.93 3.26 3.02 3.26 3.20 February February February February March 2 i $ 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.22 3.22 3.20 3-20 3.20 1953 - High Low 195U - High 3 10 17 2ii (9A8) (1/2) (1/8) (12/31) (12/30) 3.U5 (I/Hi) (6/25) (1/8) (1/7) (8/5) (12/29) (1/6) (1/5) (3/1) f i cr n t*p<s. 3.27 2.71 3.00 2.72 2.99 2.76 2.9k 2.89 (6/26) (1/2) (1/1) (8/13) (12/30) (1/7) (1/6) (2/2U) 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.90 ?e Averai term of bonds i n c l u d e d i s 25-26 y e a r s . _ 2 / Thursday f i g u r e s . Only g e n e r a l o b l i g a t i o n uonds are i n c l u d e d ; average term i s 20 y e a r s . . V Friday f i g u r e s . Average r a t i n g of bonds i n c l u d e d i s between Baa and Aj a v e r a g e term i s 20 y e a r s N o t e . — H i g h s and lows are f o r i n d i v i d u a l s e r i e s and may for different series. be on d i f f e r e n t d a t e s STOCK MARKET Date Stock p r i c e index 1 / - Trading 1 . Common volume 2 / stock (millions lyields 3/ of s h a r e s ) 1 ( p e r c e n t ) Stock market customer, c r e d i t Customers' Bank debit bal- loans to ances V "others" 5 / ( M i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) 1953 - High 195k - High1955 - High Low 1956 - High Low January • February February 17 February 2h March 2 167.1 1W.0 221.lt 156.5 270.7 217.U (1/2) (9/18) (12/31) (1/6) (12/30) (1/1U) 257.h (1/20) 2.5 0.9 3.7 1.U 1*.6 1.5 2.8 2.0 262.8 266.3 266.lt 271.2 27U.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.8 274.5 (3/2) 5-75 5.15 5-33 ii.20 h.22 3-78 U.08 3.93 U.08 3.93 2M5 2,055 3,136 2,105 U,030 3,537 1,665 / 1,31U . 2,388 1,653 2,805 2,517 n.a. n.a. U,0U0 2,786 780 66U 1,018 716 1,2U1 1,018 1,267 1,214 1,25U 1,252' 1,2U9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1 / SEC index of 265 common s t o c k s , weekly c l o s i n g p r i c e s , 1939-100; converted t o 19U7-li9*100 by Federal Reserve. The conversion f a c t o r i s 123.91" 2 / Averages of d a i l y t r a d i n g volume on t h e New York Stock Exchange. 1 / Moody's 200 common s t o c k s ; end of month f i g u r e s . TxJ Bid of month f i g u r e s f o r member firms of t h e New York Stock Exchange which carry margin.accounts; e x c l u d e s balances secured by U. S. Government o b l i g a t i o n s . 5 / Wednesday f i g u r e s f o r weekly r e p o r t i n g member banks. Excludes l o a n s f o r purchasing or carrying U. S. Government s e c u r i t i e s a t banks i n New York and Chicago. Weekly r e p o r t i n g banks account f o r about 72 per cent of loans t o o t h e r s . Note.—Highs and lows are f o r i n d i v i d u a l s e r i e s and may be on d i f f e r e n t dates for d i f f e r e n t series. Exhibit D H.lk Corporate and S t a t e and Local Government S e c u r i t y O f f e r i n g s and Placements (In m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) 1956 January February March e/735 e/675 e/900 April May . June 5k6 1x36 k9k 903 697 1,207 631 921 . e/2,310 " 2,213 2,09k 1,917 2,760 9,01k Shi k26 635 1956 e/kOO e/650 e/L25 S t a t e and l o c a l 1 1955 1 195k 396 kll 565 5# 312 5# k27 350 73k 7k8 853 y k97 656 8U2 •Shi 909 335 7k7 583 65k 680 October November December 195k . 1,261 , July August September 1 s t quarter 2nd" q u a r t e r 3rd q u a r t e r kth q u a r t e r " Year Net; c a p i t a l Corporate 1 1955 1 2k9 k06 279 261 6k9 1,003 290 604 919 658 k08 59k k23 877 1,385 1,U18 1,12k 1,98k 5,911 1,372 2,33k 1,138 1,89k 6,789 1,608 1,995 1,991 1,896 7,k90 h70 e/l,k75 . . Excluding f i n a n c e companies 2 / 1st quarter 2nd q u a r t e r 3rd q u a r t e r kth quarter Year e/1,810 1,791 1,912 l,kkl 2,619 7,762 1,527 1,927 1,911 1,792 7,158 1 / Includes $637*2 m i l l i o n AT&T c o n v e r t i b l e debenture i s s u e . . 2 / Total new c a p i t a l i s s u e s excluding o f f e r i n g s of s a l e s and personal f i n a n c e companies. "Note.—Details may not add to t o t a l s due to rounding. Exhibit E H.1U Large Public Security Issues f o r New C a p i t a l (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1 / Proceeds of Large Issues Offered (Millions of d o l l a r s ) . Month Corporate 1955 - February March April May June July August . September October November December 1956 - January February S t a t e and l o c a l government 107 337 238 152 U03 278 65 23U 716 396 205 192 U33 63 750 173 k83 175 101 Uo5 328 805 269 215 95 212 Other 2/ __ 15 . 25 50 Large I n d i v i d u a l Issues Offered February 1 through March 2 Issuer Type 3/ Coupon Amount Offering Rating (millions Maturity r a t e or of tret i n t e r yield dollars) e s t cost CORPORATE Northwestern B e l l Telephone Reynolds Metals Chemical Corn Exchange Bank So. C a l i f . Edison M. Lowenstein & Sons Hoppers Co., Inc. Tennessee Gas Transmission Deb. Pfd. s t k . 25.0 liO.O stk. Pfd. s t k . Conv. sub. ebb. Com. s t k . 26.0 30.7 34.3 15.6 Pfd. stk 1996 3 1A 3.15 Aai 1981 L 3/8 U.38 Ba 1.85-3,10 1.80-2.75 1.70-2.75 A Aaa A 1*0.0 STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Public Housing Auth. New Orleans, Louisiana G.O. 13.2 106.8 11.5 1958-81 1956-90 1957-95 2.19 2.69 2.57 P H.lU E-2 Large Individual Issues Offered February 1 through March 2 (Cont'd) .. Issuer Type 3/ Amount Coupon (millions Maturity r a t e or Offering Rating of yield net interdollars) e s t cost STATS & LOCAL GOVERNMENT (Cont'd) Metropolitan Water D i s t . of So. C a l i f . Lubbock, Texas . New York State Thruway Chicago, I l l i n o i s Puerto Rico Los Angeles, C a l i f . Montgomery Co., Md. Indianapolis, Ind. Rochester, New York Weber Basin "Water Cons. D i s t r i c t / Utah Fort Worth, Texas Connecticut' Expressway Los Angeles Co., C a l i f . S t a t e of California ' San Antonio, Texas Rev. t.O.-Rev. G.R. Rev. G.O. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. G.O. .O.-Rev. Rev. G.O. G.O. G.O. 7-3 9.8 50.0 15.0 9.5 2U.0 6.8 18.0 7*h 5-U 10.0 100.0 7.9 30.0 5.0 1957-81 1957-81 1985-95 196U-78 1957-76 1957-86, , 1957-86^' 1958-87 1957-69 1960-96 1957-81 1961-95 1956-57,, 1958-822/ 1957-76 2.2h 2.80 2.U2 2.60 2.78 2.hi 2.88 2.29 1.89 3.38 2.65 2.68 1.92 2.3k 2.7U 1.50-2.35 1.90-2.85 2.25-2.UO 2.30-2.65 1.90-2.75 1.65-2.25 1.85-3.00 1.65-2.38 1.50-1.90 Aa A Aaa A Aa Baa Aaa Aaa 2.50-3.50 1.80-2.70 2.10-2.90 5/ 1.70-2.&0 1.90-2.75 A A Aa AaBaa OTHER " l / l n c l u d e s corporate and other security o f f e r i n g s of 315 million and over; State - *and l o c a l government s e c u r i t y o f f e r i n g s of $5 million and over. 2!/ Includes foreign government and I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r Reconstruction and Development i s s u e s . 3/ In the case of S t a t e and l o c a l government s e c u r i t i e s , G.O. denotes gene r a l obligation; Rev., revenue bonds; G.R., general obligations additionally s e • cured by f a c i l i t i e s revenues; L.L., limited l i a b i l i t y obligations secured trypledge of designated revenues. h/ 1981t-86 m a t u r i t i e s not r e o f f e r e d . !>/ Not publicly r e o f f e r e d . 6 / 1982 m a t u r i t i e s not r e o f f e r e d . H.lU E x h i b i t F. Forthcoming Large P u b l i c S e c u r i t y O f f e r i n g s f o r New C a p i t a l (Other than U. S. Treasury) 1 / Expected Proceeds ft-om Forthcoming Large I s s u e s During month f o l l o w i n g d a t e shorn S t a t e and o t h e r 2 / Corporate l o c a l govt. ' - Date of . computation - Feb. 28 Mar. 31 Apr. 29 Hay 31 June 30 J u l y 29 Aug. 31 S e p t . 30 Oct. 31 Nov. 30 Dec. 30 1956 - J a n . 31 Feb. 29 710 211 125 160 67 U07 222 805 202 215 70 176 123 52U 208 116 339 3hh 100 18U 8it 3 330 205 121. 327 220 50 —— Subsequent t o d a t e shown S t a t e and l Q t h e r 2 / Corporate l o c a l govt. 1,395 922 1,110. 850 830 1,135 920 909 U12 230 85 ,376 233 1,978 2,009 - 1,917 1,861 1,816 2,018 1,971 2,205 1,650 756 618 917 785 50 — — — Forthcoming Large O f f e r i n g s , as of March 2 ¥ Issuer Type Amount Approximate d a t e (millions of o f f e r i n g of d o l l a r s ) CORPORATE Bell.Telephone of Pennsylvania Westcoast Transmission, Ltd." Houston L i g h t i n g and Power Fruehauf T r a i l e r Co. ttWhirlpool-Seeger *Tide Water Associated O i l New York Telephone Southern C a l i f o r n i a Gas Sheraton Corporation of America •*Scott Paper Deb. Sub. deb. 1 s t mtg. b d s . ' Conv. sub. deb. SF deb. SF deb. R e f . mtg. bds. Mtg. bds. Deb. Conv. deb. 35.0 20.5 30.0 37.5 30.0 100.0 55.0 ho.o 15.0 98.7 March March March March March March April May 1956 1956 6 7 7 7 20 20 30 March March March March March 6 6 6 7 8 STATE AND LOCAL"GOVERNMENT Penn Tom s h i p School D i s t r i c t , Pa. S t . Louis, Missouri Santa C l a r a , C a l i f o r n i a Denver, Colorado, School D i s t . # 1 Bethlehem A u t h o r i t y , Pa. L.L. G.O. G.O. G.O. Rev. 5-3 12.2 5-2 28.5 8.0 H.lU F-2 Forthcoming Large O f f e r i n g s , as of March 2 (Cont'd) Issuer Type Amount Approximate date (millions of o f f e r i n g of d o l l a r s ) STATE A D LOCAL GOVERNMENT (Cont'd) N S t a t e of Alabama S t a t e of Mew Hampshire San Diego, C a l i f o r n i a -Kiilwaukee, Wisconsin -estate of New Mexico Dallas,.Texas -Washington S t a t e Toll Bridge Auth. *£Lexandria, Louisiana Inter-American Center Auth., F l a . Georgia Rural Roads AuthorityF l o r i d a S t a t e Turnpike AuthorityOklahoma Turnpike AuthorityPennsylvania Turnpike Commission Washington S t a t e To ll Bridge Auth. S a l t River P r o j e c t , Arizona L.L. G.O. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. Rev. . Rev. Rev. Rev. n.a. 15.0 19.3 6.0 8.0 5-0. 8.5 9.3 •8.3 70.0 15.5 185-0 6£.0 62.0 227.0 11.0 March lit March 15 March 15 March 20 March 20 March 26 March 27 March 29 • March May Late s p r i n g 1956 #56 1956 1956 OTHER None *—Included i n t a b l e f o r f i r s t time. n.a.—Mot a v a i l a b l e . - 1 / Includes corporate and other i s s u e s of £>15 m i l l i o n and over; S t a t e and local"government i s s u e s of ! £ j n i l l i o n and over. 2/ Includes f o r e i g n government and I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r Reconstruction and Development i s s u e s . Exhibit G Yields on New and Outstanding E l e c t r i c Power Bonds, Rated Aa"and A 1 / Date Aa-rated o f f e r i n g y i e l d s . A-rated o f f e r i n g y i e l d s Actual I Amount above Actual I Amount above (per cent), [seasoned y i e l d s (per cent) (seasoned y i e l d s ((basis points) |(basis points) 3.35 12 16 3-78 26 3.12 -3 1952 average 3.16 13 1953 average 3-U6 195U average 3.03 3 1955 average 3.23 9 3.33 12 • 13 7 8 None *3.23 3-29 3.31 3.35 *3.30 None *3.57 *3.# 3.28 None None — — 1955 - January February March April May June July August September October November December 1956 - January February 15 28 29 *3.13 *3.1U *3.17 None • *3-22 *3.20 • None None *3.32 *3.25 *3.27 *3.32 None - 10 7 10 7 7 12 — * 3 30 23 -5 '—•' — None 3-20 3.25 3-15 9 1U 16 iu 10 — ' c/-8 ~ -3 ' 1 / Covers only 30-year f i r s t mortgage bonds, as reported i n Moody's Bond Survey. Except where i n d i c a t e d , t h e a c t u a l y i e l d f i g u r e and the amount above seasoned y i e l d s are averages of o f f e r i n g s during t h e i n d i c a t e d period and of the d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e new o f f e r i n g y i e l d s and y i e l d s on seasoned i s s u e s of s i m i l a r q u a l i t y f o r the same day. The number of new i s s u e s included in the monthly averages v a r i e s from 2 to h except f o r October 195U when 6 A-rated i s s u e s were included. Average maturity f o r " t h e seasoned i s s u e s v a r i e s from 26 to 28 y e a r s . c / Corrected.