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MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------: Vol. VIII San Francisco, California, September 20,1924 Summary of National Conditions Production in basic industries was main tained during August at about the same level as in the two preceding months, and factory employment showed a slight increase. Whole sale prices, especially those of agricultural products, showed a further advance. Production. The Federal Reserve Board's index of production in basic industries, ad justed to allow for seasonal variations, con tinued in August at the same level as in June and July. Production of steel was substantially larger than in July, and the output of pig iron and mill consumption of cotton also increased. Sugar meltings and production of anthracite and zinc, on the other hand, were smaller. Factory employment increased slightly in August and average weekly earnings increased No. 9 4 per cent, owing to less part-time employ ment. Larger working forces were reported in the textile, leather, and automobile industries. Building contracts awarded, contrary to the usual seasonal trend, were 3 per cent larger in August than in July. Crop conditions showed further improvement in August, and the Sep tember estimates of production by the Depart ment of Agriculture were larger for wheat, oats, barley, and potatoes. Estimated yields of corn, cotton, and tobacco, however, were smaller. Harvesting has proceeded rapidly this year, and the August marketing of wheat was larger than in either of the last two years. Trade. Bank debits, which reflect the vol ume of business transactions settled by check, showed about the usual seasonal decrease in August, but were larger than a year ago. Rail road shipments increased slightly as a result PER CENT 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 Production in B u ie Industrie* Index of 22 basic commoditica corrected for seasonal variation (1919=100). Latest figure. August, 94. Wholesale Price* Index of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913=100. base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure. August, 150. Those dwiriny tUa review sent them regularly will receive It without charge upon application. 118 Septem ber, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS of larger loadings of miscellaneous merchan dise, grain, and coal. Wholesale trade was 7 per cent larger than in July, owing to seasonal increases in sales of dry goods, shoes, and meat, but continued to be smaller than a year ago. Department store sales showed less than the usual increase in August and were 7 per the middle of September, although discounts were at the low point for the year, the total volume of reserve bank credit was higher than at any time since last spring. Seasonal in crease in the demand for currency was re flected in a decline in cash reserve and, at the reserve banks in certain of the agricultural PER CENT M IL L IO N S O F D O L L A R S 200 4000 Discoui Total IEjamint — Sates with seasonal correction -Sales without correction rptance. IISSec. _____ 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 Asseti k : 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 Deportment Store Sale« Index of 333 stores in 117 cities (1919=100). Latest figures, August, with correction, 118» without correction, 93. Reserve Bank Credit Weekly figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Latest figure, September 17. cent smaller than last year. Mail order sales increased more than usual at this season, and were 1 per cent larger than in August, 1923. Merchandise stocks of department stores at the end of August, for the first time this year, were smaller than on the corresponding date of 1923. Prices. Wholesale prices, as measured by the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in creased 2 per cent in August, and were at about the same level as a year ago. The advance was due largely to further increases in prices of farm products and foods, though all other com modity groups, except metals and fuel, also ad vanced. During the first three weeks of Sep tember, prices of wheat, rye, wool, and rubber increased, while those of cotton, silk, petro leum, and metals declined. Bank credit. Loans and investments of mem ber banks in leading cities continued to in crease during the four-week period ending Sep tember 10th, and on that date reached a record figure about $1,000,000,000 above the level of three months earlier. The largest increase was in loans on stocks and bonds, although com mercial loans also increased, owing partly to seasonal demands for credit. The growth of investments by member banks continued, though at a somewhat slackened rate. At the Federal reserve banks there was a further in crease in the holdings of Government securi ties and of acceptances, with the result that in districts, in an increase of Federal reserve note circulation. Slightly firmer conditions in the New York money market in late August and early September were reflected in a slight ad vance of the rate on commercial paper from 3-3J4 to 3}i per cent. After the middle of Sep tember a recurrence of easier conditions fol lowed Treasury operations. The September 15th offerings of one-year Treasury certificates bore 2j4 per cent interest, the same rate as the six-months issue sold in June. Summary of District Conditions Hesitant improvement characterized the bus iness situation in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District during August. A definite expansion in industrial activity was noted, but seasonal gains in volume of trade at wholesale and re tail were smaller than usual. The trend of the general price level was upward, although counter movements were frequent and not all commodities shared in the advances. Funds for financing business continued in ample sup ply at low rates, and member banks were able to care for the slightly increased needs of their commercial borrowers without recourse to the Federal Reserve Bank. Fact and opinion concerning present and prospective returns to farmers for their 1924 crops are exerting a particularly important in fluence on the general business situation this year. Although definite statement must await Septem ber, 1924 completion of harvesting and disposal of a larger proportion of the crops than has already been marketed, it is safe to say that recent increases in prices of agricultural products have done much to improve the outlook in farming sections. Crop production for the dis trict was generally smaller in volume this year than in 1923, and slightly below the average of recent years. Reports of increasing industrial production, which were quite numerous during the latter part of July, have been confirmed by the statis tical record for August. Lumber mills and metal mines of the district have increased their output in response to a growing demand for their products on a strengthening market. The building industry has continued active at levels only slightly below the record figures of a year ago, the number and value of building permits issued in 20 principal cities of the district dur ing August, 1924, being 12.1 per cent and 11.4 per cent, respectively, larger than during July, 1924, and 0.2 per cent and 15.1 per cent smaller than during August, 1923. The latter decrease must be interpreted in the light of a decline of 8.1 per cent in building material prices over the year period. The fruit canning season is now drawing to a close. Commercial factors estimate that the pack in California will be slightly smaller, and that in Oregon and Wash ington approximately the same as last year. This year's pack is meeting a steady market demand at prices which have tended upward as the season advances. The total volume of trade transacted in the district, as indicated by debits to individual accounts at banks in 20 clearing house centers, declined slightly during August as compared with July, but was still slightly above esti mated normal and well above the low point reached in June. Retail trade activity increased by less than the usual seasonal amount during August and the increased buying which ap peared in July, subsided, so that trade at wholesale again presented marked irregulari ties. Here also, however, the August figures reflected a more favorable situation than that which prevailed in June. The number and liabilities of business failures within the dis trict during August were less by more than 15 per cent than during July. Increases in commercial demand for credit, resulting both from seasonal needs of trade and from recent slight increases in business activ ity, have been met by member banks out of their own resources. Commercial loans of 66 reporting member banks in the principal cities of the district increased $5,000,000 during the four weeks ended September 10, 1924. A re duction of $4,000,000 in loans secured by stocks 119 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO and bonds and of $2,000,000 in investments pro vided the funds necessary to care for this in crease in commercial borrowing. Demand de posits of reporting banks have increased fur ther, and at $781,000,000 on September 10th, were at record levels. Earning assets of the Reserve Bank increased slightly during the month as a result of purchases of government securities and of acceptances. Discounts of the bank, at $16,000,000 on September 17th were at the lowest point reached since the latter part of 1917. Interest rates have remained at low levels. Agriculture The unrelieved dry spell which has had such an unfavorable effect upon the growth of im portant crops of the district, has in turn fa vored the steady and rapid harvesting of the yields which have been secured. During August and early September, satisfactory progress in threshing grains, gathering field crops (including beans, cotton, potatoes, and sugar beets), and picking, packing, and curing deciduous fruits was quite generally reported. Estimated yields on September 1st were but little changed from the figures published on August 1st, although the grains, particularly wheat, were yielding more heavily and the majority of deciduous fruits less heavily than was anticipated a month ago. Prices of agri cultural products in general held the gains of the previous month or moved slightly upward. The accompanying table shows the estimated yields of some of the principal crops of the district, and their average farm value per unit of production on August 15th of the years 1924 and 1923. It is evident from this exhibit that aggregate returns for the short crops of the present year will compare more favorably with returns received for the large crops of 1923 than was thought possible before the recent rise in prices of agricultural commodities. t------------------ Production------------------* Estimated Farm Prices Sept. 1, Aug. 1, Actual Aug. 15, Aug. 15, Grain: Unit 1924 1924 1923 1924 1923 Wheat ,.b u . 69,875,000 69,115,000 144,191,000 $1.16J $ .85$ Barley ...b u . 20,091,000 20,024,000 46,192,000 1.20* .63* Field Crops: Beans . . .bu. 2,734,000 2,869,000 Potatoes bu. 30,559,000 29,751,000 Sugar Beets ..t o n 1,678,000 1,841,000 Deciduous Fruits: Apples (com mercial) box 30,714,000 31,287,000 Grapes*..ton 1,536,000 1,638,000 Peaches..bu. 12,237,000 13,855,000 Pears . . .b u . 7,697,000 7,649,000 Prunes ..to n 117,500 117,500 ___ (d rie d) 5,725,000 35,323,000 4.00* 1.08f 2.98* .80f 2,154,000 43,959,000 1.40* 1.31* 1,811,000 35.001F 40.00ff 17,663,000 1.40*5 1.50*5 9,472,000 1.60* 1.56* 80,000* .1054*1.09#*! •California, fldaho. ^Washington. {J u ly 15th. f Thompson Seedless (commercial estimate September 15th). (Wholesale price per pound— 40-50«. 120 S eptem ber, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS An approximate measure of progress made in marketing the crops of the district during the present season is given in Table “A”. Many of the important crops of the district have matured from one to three weeks earlier than usual this season, and insofar as this is true, shipments during recent weeks have been relatively larger than in corresponding periods of normal years. Grain exports during the considerably in excess of that shown in the table, shipments to domestic markets, par ticularly California, having been nearly twice as large during the past two months as during July and August, 1923. The figures of shipments of deciduous fruits show a decline as compared with a year ago which reflects the relative size of the crops in the two years. The supply of refrigerator cars for shipping fresh deciduous fruits from this district to eastern fruit markets has con tinued adequate for current needs of shippers. Livestock—Animal Products Although the drought of recent months was broken in many sections of the district during August and the first weeks of September, past ures and ranges continued quite generally to suffer from lack of moisture. Losses of live stock have been largely averted by the early removal of flocks and herds from customary summer feeding grounds, and by increased utilization of grain and hay stubble fields and other supplementary feed resources. Yard feeding of livestock has commenced sooner TH O U SA N D S 5001 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------------- ------ ------ California Fruit Shipments, 1923*1924 first two months of the 1924-1925 cereal year, although smaller in volume than a year ago, have been larger in proportion to the yield than was the case in the 1923-1924 season. The actual movement of wheat, too, has been (A) M ovement o f Crops to Market* T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S ER V E D IS T R IC T W heat Exports^ Portland and Puget S o u n d .......... Barley Exports San Francisco (bu.) Orange Shipments§ California . . . (cars) Lem on Shipments§ California . . . (cars) T otal Deciduous Fruit Shipments^ California . . . (cars) T otal Deciduous Fruit Shipments^ Pacific N orthwest (cars) 1924-1925 Season to Aug. 31,1924 1923-1924 1922-1923 Season to Season to Aug. 31,1923 Aug. 31,1922 1,424,499 (2.0) t 2,346,435 (1.6) 5,738,474 (5.9) 2,797,737 (15.1) 3,255,547 (7.3) 4,645,495 (10.8) 40,639 (78.8) 45,417 (91.8) 27,005 (87.5) 12,104 (92.2) 7,612 (77.7) 9,135 (87.7) 17,851 20,877 13,927 ill ) 4,144 6,935 1.656 ill 1 ill I 111 . L I I I 1923 1 I 1.1 I ill I II 1924 Receipts ot Livestock at Eight of the Principal Markets erf the District 1923-1924. (Los Angeles. Ogden, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle, Spokane, and Tacoma inoladed) and is being done on a larger scale than usual, and an abnormal autumn demand for hay has developed in many areas. Condition figures of ranges, cattle, and sheep, expressed in per centages of normal (normal==100), for the states of this district follow: /— •Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of new crop only. Carryover figures are disregarded, tPercentage figures based on September 1st crop estimate. ¿Season begins J u ly 1st. {Season begins November 1st f Season begins about M ay 1st. O 111 Range#------\ Aug. 1, Sept. 1, 1924 1923 1924 79 California . . , .. 52 83 51 68 58 61 Utah ............. 73 W ashington . . . 7 0 98 74 ,------Catti« Aug. Sept.l, 1924 1923 192* 83 91 85 82 94 84 82 91 81 70 96 75 76 100 79 74 89 76 78 99 78 t------ Sheep >1 ^ Aug. Sept. 1, 1, 1924 1923 1924 90 80 94 83 96 84 88 67 98 73 90 75 78 101 85 80 84 82 88 100 90 Total receipts of all classes of livestock at eight principal markets of the district during August reflected a normal seasonal movement to marketing centers accelerated in some sec tions by a shortage of feed which necessitated an increase in early autumn shipments. Fig ures follow: LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS AT Cattle 77,433 64,850 69,256 August, 1924......................... July, 1924......................... August, 1923......................... Four-Year Average* A u g u s t............................... J u l y .................................... *1921*1924. 121 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Septem ber, 1924 66,034 61,598 EIGHT MARKETS Calves Hogs Sheep 26,872 159,774 294,006 24,607 201,351 285,881 23,918 170,161 239,364 21,214 129,608 267,781 18,913136,109 ^ 237,688 Production of butter continued at high levels during August, and was accompanied by a seasonal increase in holdings of cold storage butter at the chief markets of this district. A small decrease in cold storage stocks at Cali fornia markets was more than offset by in creased holdings in the Pacific Northwest, although cold storage stocks in California comprised approximately three-fourths of the total for the district. Stocks of eggs held in cold storage in this district declined seasonally during August. Prices of important products of this district, including the majority of farm crops, live stock, animal products, non-ferrous metals, and lumber, participated in the general upward movement. Of particular significance were advances in prices of wool, sugar, and copper, which appear to have been as much the result of the general business and price situation as of the market position of the individual com modities. Price movements for certain important prod ucts of the district and representative index numbers of the general price level are sum marized in table “B.” 1N O EX N U M B E R S COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS OF BUTTER AND EGGS Five* Year Sept. 1, Average Aug. 1, Sept. 1, Butter (pounds) 1924 1924 Sept. let# 1923 8,630,893 8,580,037 *12th District. 6,226,035 5,022,774 United States. 156,232,000 134,118,000lf 102,731,000 110,802,000 Eggs (cases) tl2 th District. 516,815 554,165* 600,931 Î United States. 8,751,000 9,267,000fl 9,883,000 8,152,000 *Four markets. fSix markets, iFigures not available. §1920*1924. flRevised. _____ Wholesale Prices and the Cost of Living, 1920-1924 United States Bureau of Labor Index of Wholesale Price» (1913=100) National Industrial Conference Board Index of the Cost of Living (July 1914=100) Prices Industrial Activity Upward movement of the general level of prices, first noted in July, continued during August, and prices at the close of the latter month averaged approximately the same as one year ago. Prices of farm products again advanced further than did the general level of all prices, and agricultural commodities as a class are now selling more nearly on a parity with other commodities than at any time since the decline of prices in 1920. Improvement in the industrial situation in the Twelfth District, first noted during July, became more pronounced during August, be ing accentuated by expanding seasonal ac tivity in agricultural centers. Figures of building permits issued at 20 principal cities of the district during August, 1924, were larger than in recent previous months, but remained at lower levels than a year ago. The number of permits issued dur- (B) Commodity Prices— Commodity U nit Wholesale Prices (U. S. Bureau of Labor) 1913=100................................. Purchasing Power of Farm Products (U. S. Department of Agriculture) 1913=100 ........................................................................................................ Lambs ......................... Weekly average price at Chicago...................... Wheat .........................Chicago contract price for September Wheat. Wool ...........................Average of 98 quotations at Boston................... Sugar ..........................Beet Granulated f. o. b. San Francisco............. P r u n e s ........................Size 40/50 in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. California.. Raisins .......................Thompsons in 25*lb. boxes f. o. b. California. Canned Peaches......... r i ing Choice, 2\4s f. o. b. California................. Copper ..........................Electrolytic, New Y ork Spot................................. L e a d ............................New York Spot..................................................... Lumber (S oftw ood). .W eekly índex, Û . S.* *As published by the "Lum ber Manufacturer and Dealer.” 100 lbs. 100 lbs. bu. Ib. 100 lbs. lb. lb. doz. lb. lb. oz. Sept. 5,1924 One Month Ago One Year Ago 150.0 147.0 150.0 90.0 $10.00 13.40 1.227A-Ì.24H 82.551 7.40 .1 0 # -. 11 .0754 2.45 13.221 7 83* 68,52* 30.74 83.0 $10.05 13.35 1.30^-1.33 77.58* 6.75 .1 0 ^ -.1 0 J4 •07# 2.45 12.391 7.12# 67.16* 29.12 73.0 $10.40 12.95 1.01M -1.03K 76.46* 8.00 .09 J4 -.0 9 # .08 2.25 13.82* 6.58* 62.79* 31.39 122 S eptem ber, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS mg* August, 1924, was 12.1 per cent greater and their value was 11.4 per cent greater than in July, but the increase during the month was smaller, both in number and in value, than during August, 1923, as compared with July, 1923. For the year period (August, 1924, compared with August, 1923) number and value of permits declined 0.2 per cent and 15.1 per cent, respectively. The decline in value of permits issued represents only in part a decline in actual volume of projected building, as the cost of building materials has declined approximately 8.1 per cent during the year. The United States Bureau of Labor Statis tics’ index stood at 169 in August, 1924, and at 186 in August, 1923. Prices in 1913=100. The Aberthaw index of the total cost of con structing a reinforced concrete factory build ing remained unchanged during August, and at 196 on September 1, 1924, was 4.8 per cent lower than the figure (206) on September 1, 1923. than either production or shipments, and un filled orders on the books of the mills at the close of August, 1924, were 15.8 per cent larger than one month ago, and but 4.3 per cent smaller than a year ago. Despite a larger volume of production than of shipments during the past month, stocks of lumber at mills were reported to be small. Figures follow (000 omitted) : Aug., 1924 July, 1924 Aug., 1923 Ju ly,1923 (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) Production ...................... Shipments ....................... Orders ............................. Unfilled Orders................ Number of Mills Report ing ................................. 586,568 549,480 616,196 415,523 515,453 517,302 540,924 358,851 664,863 551,354 533,326 434,169 673,392 573,249 533,294 439,315 181 182 193 200 Curtailment of logging operations in the Pacific Northwest continued during August, but an increase in activity was noted as the summer fire hazard was lessened by rainfall during the first weeks of September. Logs have been in ample supply to meet current demands of the mills. An increased demand for lumber, both in domestic and foreign markets was noted dur ing August, practically all sections of this country and the majority of foreign purchasers participating in the buying movement. MILLIONS OF BOARD F E E T 800 • 600 ‘x ; U f 400 Building Permit» Issued in 20 Principal Cities, Twelfth Federal Reserve District, 1923-1924 Recent trends of activity in the building in dustry in this district, as shown by monthly and cumulative year to date comparisons of building permit figures for 20 cities, are indi cated in the following table: Month m 1924 compared with same Month in - 1923Monthly Cumulative No. Value No. Value 0.2% August . July . . . . — 5.5% —15.6% June M a y ----- —12.6% April . . . — 2.2% 1.5% March .. February. 26.3% January .. 12.6% Month in 1924 compared with preceding Month No. Value —15.1% — 0.3% — 5.4% 12.1% 11.4% — 3.4% — 0.4% — 3.8% 3.5% 9.3% —28.5% 0.5% — 3.8% — 8.9% —11.6% — 18.7% 3.7% 1.9% —11.5% — 7.6% — 2.4% 8.2% 8.1% — 8.7% —12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 11.0% 15.1% — 2.1% 18.5% 19.3% 5.1% 2.8% 22.5% 27.0% 12.6% 27.0% 14.9% — 9.3% The volume of lumber cut by mills reporting to four associations of this district increased 13.8 per cent during August, the gain being partly seasonal and partly the result of a strengthening demand for lumber products. For the second consecutive month orders re ceived were considerably larger in volume SH IPM EN TS-------• —• 200 — O RD ERS • ÍT , , t r - r - m ~ T T \Li—i—l! i i i l i 1923 i i1 li 1 1 1924 1 1 11 Lumber Production, Orders Received, and Shipments in Twelfth Federal Reserve District as Reported by Four Lumber Associations, 1923*1924 (C) Building Permits — August. 1924 N o. Value Berkeley ................ Long Beach............ Los A n g e le s ........... . . P o r t l a n d ................. . Sacramento ........... Sa l t L a k e C i t y . . . San Diego............... S an F r a n c is c o . . . . San Jose................. 416 68 110 345 3,835 1,113 34 334 84 1,543 16 289 131 582 894 82 S p o k a n e ................... Stockton ................ District ............... 94 362 August, 1923 Value N o. 901,908 103,207 148.916 1,045,041 13,893,095 3,026,716 113,200 1,306,328 210,529 3,152,125 59,200 497,976 507,263 1,632,051 4,040,980 298,440 2,116,960 185,167 369,319 742,632 229 61 142 404 5,932 1,120 30 381 51 1,443 19 339 96 421 787 94 854 218 117 439 $34,351,053 13,177 $ $ 620,435 67,529 286,413 1,566,817 22,249,262 2,118,416 67,200 765,629 68,805 2,818,355 56,908 2,514,560 559,730 651,598 3,915,300 187,885 1,281,130 199,146 251,375 223,416 $40,469,909 Septem ber, 1924 123 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Preliminary reports to this bank indicate slightly greater activity in the mining industry of the district during August than during July, and evidences of increased production of gold, silver, copper, and lead have accumulated during the month. Figures of national production of copper, silver, zinc, and quicksilver during July and June, 1924, and July, 1923, follow: July, 1924 June, 1924 Copper (lbs.) (mine produc tion) ................................... 129,486,000* 127,506,000 Silver (oz.) (commercial 4,492,351 5,228,000 „ bars) ................................... 42,913 43,442 Zinc (tons) (sla b )................ Quicksilver (flasksof 75 lbs., 775,550 775,550 estimated) ......................... July. 1923 cent. Pertinent data concerning the California oil industry are presented in the following tables: Aug., July, Sept., Aug., •P eak Average Daily Production (barrels) 1924*.. 616,548 1 9 2 4 ... 621,766 1923*.. 858,750 1 9 2 3 ... 852,903 of production. GASOLENE 125,249,347 5,406,000 43,065 t Figures for lead are not available. ‘ Preliminary. tN ot available. Further strengthening of non-ferrous metals markets was reported during August and the first weeks of September. Demand for copper, silver, and lead was especially active, and note worthy gains in prices were recorded for these metals during the period under review. Daily average production of petroleum in California oil fields continued downward dur ing August, but consumption declined by a PETRO LEUM Indicated Average Stored ^ New Wells Daily Stocks at Daily Consumption End of Produc tion (Shipments) Month Number (barrels) (barrel*) (barrels) Opened 572,017 102,846,705 100 33,954 593,109 101,466,225 137 55,975 93 85,496,609 779,657 139,960 708,767 83,123,835 61 118,433 July, 1924 June, 1924 July, 1923 June, 1923 (gallons) (gallons) (gallons) Refinery O utput. 93,742,087 109,567,063 121,212,438 Stored Stocks*.. 261,419,197 276,959,482 136,585,654 (gallon*) 115,316,719 142,859,892 *As of the last day of the month. A slight decline in production of flour at 16 reporting mills of the district during August, following a similar decline in July, brought current output to levels well below those of the M IL L IO N S O F B U S H E L S 5 V \ M IL L IO N S S' ) A J rocKso WHEAT > 1 X 3 0 0 200 TH O U SAN D S OF B A R R E L S STORED ST ÍCKS OF 6A SOLE (GALLONS) 900 / *%STO;ksoffi o u y 500 4-0 STORED S OCKS OF P rTROLEUM <BBLS> PETROL EUM PROg JCTION (BBLS.) 2 0 o - pet Í OLE UM SM IPMENTS (B 8 L S .) IO 1923 Production. Shipments, and Stored Stocks of Petroleum, and Refinery Stored Stocks of Gasolene in California. 1923-1924 greater amount and stored stocks were further increased. The enormous growth of stored stocks since January, 1921, when the upward movement began, has carried holdings within the state (102,846,705 barrels on August 31, 1924) to levels over 300 per cent higher than three years ago. California refineries pro duced less gasoline during July, 1924, than during June, 1924, the decreased production, at the season when consumption of gasolene is greatest, resulting in a reduction of re finery stocks of gasolene amounting to 14.5 per V ' OUI PUTOf FLOUR IO O «924 1923 Monthly Plottr Output, and Stocks of Wheat and Flonr at End of Month of 16 Reporting Milling Companies first half of the year. Curtailment of produc tion has evidently been necessary to prevent an excessive accumulation of flour, as stocks held by mills increased 1.7 per cent during August whereas the average for the past five years shows a decrease during that month. Mill stocks of flour, at 420,180 barrels on Sep tember 1st, were the largest reported for that date since 1920. A normal seasonal increase in stocks of wheat held by millers was recorded during the month. Total figures for 16 milling companies for which comparative data are available for the past five years follow: Aug., 1924 457,579 Output (b b l s .).... Stocks* F lou r (b b l s .)... 420,180 W h eat ( b u . ) . . . 1,932,525 July, 1924 462,327 Ang.. 1923 538,982 403,092 1,803,093 397,391 1,460,100 *As of the first day of the following month. Five-Year Averaget Aug. 470,109 413,508 1,678,121 1 1920-1924. 124 Septem ber, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS The peak of the 1924 fruit canning season in California was reached during the past month, and operators are now finishing the season’s pack. Commercial factors still estimate that the total 1924 pack in California, although larger for some varieties, notably apricots, will be smaller than the 1923 pack (11,351,536 cases). Packing plants in the Pacific Northwest continued active during early Sep tember, and it is reported that the total pack of fruit in Oregon and Washington will be approximately the same in volume as last year (3,745,365 cases). Continued dry warm weather in California has favored rapid har vesting and curing of dried fruit crops, par ticularly prunes and raisins, in that state. Both domestic and foreign markets for canned and dried fruits have been active during recent months, carryover stocks in the hands of packers have been greatly reduced, and the volume of future orders received for new pack goods has been relatively greater than a year ago. Non-statistical data embracing all industries in all states of the district indicate an improve ment in the employment situation during August as compared with July, but statistical evidence for California which, of course, does not include figures of agricultural workers, shows a slight decline in the number of men employed by reporting industrial establish ments. As compared with one year ago the volume of employment in the district has de clined slightly. mining, as sales to manufacturing industries show a decrease for both periods. Percentage Increase or Decrease (—) in Volume oi Sales July, 1924, compared with July, 1923* Total Mann* Industrial Agricul* Mining facturing Sales ture -—14.4 12.7 34.0 6.1 C alifornia ........................ (6.4) (35.4) (15.5) (— 12.5) 12.7 4.4 Pacific N orthw est ......... 4.7 23.5 (5.4) ( - 2 .6 ) (0.8) (— 1.6) Interm ountain States .. 75.9 — 12,9 5.9 7.9 (13.9) (— 19.8) (0.05) (2.4) 4.2 — 5.6 10.3 ( 8 .5 ) (4.7) (33.6) (1.3) _____ •F igures in parentheses indicate percentage increase or decrease ( —) July, 1924, compared with June, 1924. Number and D istribution of Industrial Consumers and Actual Volume of Sales Number of Industrial Consumers Industrial Sales K. W. H . California ................. Pacific N orthw est . . Interm ountain States Tw elfth D istrict . . . . 85,232 14,038 5,528 104,798 72,014 12,293 5,418 89,725 298,472,908 79,797,190 73,097,331 451,367,429 264,807,852 76,428,988 67,700,793 408,937,633 General Business and Trade All of the gains in business activity noted in July as compared with June were not held during August, but the volume of distribution and trade continued above the low levels of the mid-year. MILLIONS or DOLLARS EM PL O Y M EN T IN C A LIFO R N IA * Percentage Increase or Decrease ( —) N umber of August No. of Employees compared Firms July. Aug., with 1924 1924 July All Industries.................................... 471 86.864 85,789 - 12 Stone, Clay and Glass P roducts. 32 5,534 5,504 — 0.5 M etals, M achinery, and Convey a n c e s ............................................. 113 19,418 19,334 — 0.4 Wood M anufactures..................... 86 23,413 21,887 — 6.5 17 1,408 1,498 6.4 Chemicals, Oils, Paints, E tc........ 21 5,710 4,297 —24.7 P rin tin g and Pap er G oods........... 36 4,394 5,101 16.1 Clothing, M illinery, and Laun dering ........................................... 45 3,820 4,209 10.2 Foods, Beverages, and Tobacco,. 107 22,022 22,670 2.9 M iscellan eo u s................................. , 14 1,145 1,289 12.6 •F igures compiled by C alifornia State Bureau of Labor Statistics. Changes in production and distribution of electric energy in the Twelfth District during July, 1924, as compared with July, 1923, and June, 1924, are indicated in the following tables, compiled from reports of 20 producing companies operating in the district. A con siderable proportion of the increased volume of total industrial sales both as compared with a year ago and a month ago may be attributed to the heavier demands of agriculture and Debits to individual accounts (bank debits) at banks in 20 principal clearing house centers of the district (the best single available index of general business conditions) declined 2.3 per cent during August, 1924, as compared with July, 1924, a decline slightly in excess of the usual seasonal decrease estimated to be approximately 1.4 per cent. If the reported figures be corrected for seasonal variation, year to year growth, and changes in the price level, they indicate that the volume of business transacted during August was approximately normal. Table “D ” shows bank debits for Septem ber, 1924 the month of August, 1924, and August, 1923, and cumulative totals for the first eight months of 1924 and 1923, as reported for 21 cities of the district. Figures for Phoenix, Arizona, are not included in the total for 20 cities shown in the accompanying chart. Although the improvement in trade at wholesale noted in July was not fully main tained during August, the situation still ap peared more favorable than in recent preced ing months. As compared with the corres ponding months a year ago, increases were but was slightly greater (0.01 per cent) than during August, 1923. Stocks of goods held on retailers’ shelves during July and August were larger than during the corresponding months of 1923, and the rate of stock turnover (esti mated at 2.69 times per year) for these two months of 1924, was slower than for July and August, 1923 (2.92 times per year). A de tailed statement of percentage changes in the value of sales and stocks of reporting depart ment stores in the district follows: Percentage increase Percentage increase or decrease ( — ) in or decrease(— ) in value of sales value of stocks Aug., 1924, Aug.. 1924, compared with compared with No. July, Aug., Aug., July, of 1924 1924 Stores 1923 1923 16.4 5.5 — 6.6 — 0.6 16.2 4 — 2.1 2.1 1.0 6.8 2.6 0.06 — 1.0 3.6 24.3 — 2.0 . . 10 1.8 8.5 — 0.2 10.1 — 0.09 .. 5 — 6.7 14.6 •— 12.5 2.5 ., 5 AUGUST PRICES 1923=10056= AUGUST 1923SALES U.S.BUREAU Of IABM M KX NO WHOLESALE PWCES 125 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO 4UGÜST 1924 PHICES I AUGUST 1924 SALES AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENTS AUTOMOBILE SUPPLES Spokane AUTOMOBILE TOES 16.9 0.01 0.5 0.1 •Figures for one store inclttded in district figures not included in figures for cities shown above. M ILLIONS OF DOLLARS J 1 1 2 6 \ i 2 4 2 2 0 20 40 60 60 100 120 140 160 Dollar Value of Sales of Representative Wholesale Firms and General Wholesale Prices in August* 1924, compared with August. 1923 smaller and decreases larger during August than during July in five of the eleven report ing lines, and increases were larger and de creases smaller in three reporting lines. The remaining three reporting lines showed similar changes, as compared with a year ago, in each of the two months. Seasonal gains in whole sale trade during August as compared with July were slightly smaller than usual. Per centage changes in the value of sales of re porting wholesale dealers during August, 1924, compared with one year ago and one month ago, follow: „Percentage t increase . ° ’ or No. of Firms Drugs Shoes of sales during Aug., 1924» compared with July, 1924 Aug., 1923 -— 10.4 — 18.0 4.2 — 4.5 4.0 11.6 — 3.3 5.4 — 29.9 — 8.2 14.4 15.9 17-7 4.0 1.2 — 4.7 3.1 — 14.0 32.1 ■— 20.7 — 9*2 18.8 The volume of trade at retail as indicated by the value of sales of 35 reporting depart ment stores in seven cities of the district, in creased during August, as compared with July, by less than the usual seasonal amount, 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 18 16 14 1924 V ny - J ^ / N/ V 12 IO L i. I 1 1 1 1 L 1 -----L l_ rrrrrzi Net Sales of 35 Department Stores in Twelfth Federal Reserve District (In Millions of Dollars) (D) Bank Debits*— t ------------August B e r k e le y .............. $ B oise ..................... F r e s n o ................... L ong B ea c h ......... L os A ngeles . . . . O a k la n d ................ Ogden ................... Pasadena ............. P h oen ix ................ P ortland ............ R e n o ...................... S a c r a m e n to ......... S alt L ake C it y . San D ie g o ............. S an F rancisco . . San J o s e ................ S eattle ................ S p o k a n e .............. Stockton .............. T a c o m a ................. Y s l r im a ................. 1924 16,538 11,063 33,988 43,746 667,017 130,582 23,417 27,298 16,893 153*729 7,564 47,619 60,631 46,080 786,034 24,527 178,603 45,715 2 3 ,7 6 4 39,068 9,390 ■ \ 1923 $ 16,560 11,620 51,066 61,832 672,468 112,497 25,878 28,065 17,233 154,315 9,934 37,831 57,613 42,490 739,785 22,041 170,001 48,645 24,728 38,013 8,794 t-------Eight M o n th s------- \ 1924 1923 $ 141,080 $ 136,971 89,656 99,077 244,150 380,226 428,564 466,736 6,012,889 5,467,927 999,821 978,993 181,778 223,926 266,947 252,841 162,275 146,747 1,258,945 1,177,557 64,057 80,196 359,632 346,792 496,569 491,606 391,333 372,337 ' 6,436,714 6,250,823 171,938 176,011 1,431,765 1,336,114 374,138 385,692 184,079 188,293 324,321 309,073 75,170 75,079 T otal .................$2,393,266 $2,351,409 $20,095,821 ♦E stim ated from w eek ly to ta ls (000 o m itted ). $19,343,017 126 Septem ber, 1924 MONTHLY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Registrations (sales) of new automobiles in ures in the states of this district during August the states of this district (an index of commu 1924, and July 1924, are tabulated below: nity purchasing power) were less by 14.3 per August, 1924 July, 1924 Liabilities No. Liabilities cent during the first seven months of 1924 A rizona ............................ No. 2 $ 45,000 2 $ 13,035 than during the first seven months of 1923. California ........................ 96 1,250,404 137 1,704,565 Idaho ................................ 6 55,516 8 73,290 Much of the decline has taken place in recent Nevada ............................. 0 0 2 90,300 ............................. 35 218,837 36 306,363 months, a sales comparison of the first half of UOregon t a h .............................. .. 4 42,129 5 24,695 525,821 30 318,917 1924 with the first half of 1923 showing a W ashington ..................... 38 decline of only 12.5 per cent, and a similar D istrict ........................ 181 $2,137,707 220 $2,531,165 comparison of sales in the first quarters of Percentage increases or decreases (—) in the two years showing a slight increase in the number and liabilities of business failures 1924 as compared with 1923. Figures follow : in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District fol low * R E G IS T R A T I O N S O F N E W A U T O M O B I L E S August, 1924, compared with Arizona .............................. California .......................... Idaho .................................. Oregon ............................... Utah .................................... Washington ....................... Total (6 states)............ Passenger Jan. 1 to Aug. 1». 1924 -----1923 6,048 6,058 106,741 134,294 7,368 5,403 21,778 21,873 8,093 7,286 26,297 30,006 Jan. 1 to Aug. 1, 1924 1923 670 513 9,602 13,966 688 346 1,446 997 622 719 3,037 3,002 176,325 16,065 204,920. 19,543 National production of automobiles during August, 1924, was 19.0 per cent less than during August, 1923. An increase of 6.1 per cent in production, as compared with July 1924, was slightly smaller than the normal seasonal increase at this period. Figures com piled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago follow: Aug., 1924 Passenger Cars.................................... 251,553 Trucks ................................................... 26,781 Total ................................................. 278,334 August, 1923 Commerci*! July, 1924 Aug., 1923 237,431 313,972 24,895 29,882 262,326 N umber of Business F a ilu res.......................... Liability of Business F a ilu res........................ Seasonal increases in commercial demands for credit have been met by the member banks of the district without recourse to the Federal Reserve Bank. Commercial loans of reporting member banks increased $5,000,000 (0.6 per cent) dur ing the four weeks ended September 10, 1924. M IL L IO N S OF D O LLARS 1400 __ - • 7 T01 A L DE f*OSlTS 1 - — * + 1200 343,854 1923 Aug., 1924. Number oompared with of Aug., Aug., Aug.,, July, July. 1924 Banks 1924 1923 1923 1924 Los A n g e le s ... 13 $ 337,659 $ 338,916 $311,381 8.4 — 0.3 Oakland* ......... 7 96,196 95,457 89,529 7.4 0.7 51,579 51,692 47,468 8.6 — 0.2 Salt Lake C ity. 8 28,988 28,500 27,134 6.8 1.7 San Franciscof. 14 415,536 415,005 382,454 8.6 0.1 67,257 Seattlet ........... 14 66,479 59,149 13,7 1.1 18,135 17,774 16,026 13.1 2.0 8.7 0.1 •Includes one bank in Berkeley which was form erly a branch of an Oakland bank. f T h e consolidation of reporting banks has reduced their number, but has not affected the value of reported figures for compara tive purposes. R. G. Dun & Company's preliminary figures of the number and liabilities of business fail — 17.7 -—15.6 Banking and Credit Situation TOTAL LOANS i ND DIS( OUNTS Savings Deposits at 71 banks in seven prin i m* cipal cities of the district amounted to $1,015,- IOOO 7 = ^ 350,000 on August 31, 1924, this figure being 0.1 per cent higher than that reported on July ► 31, 1924, but still slightly below the record _ [ ~ _j' ■1 ' ' figure ($1,016,605,000) reported on June 30, .— — fh ■* 1924. As compared with a year ago savings deposits on August 31st had increased 8.7 per 3 0 0i L— cent, all reporting cities participating in the ft CVABLE A ND REDtS COUNTS lOOJ9 BILLS WITH FEDERA ^RESEÇ £E6A»m movement. Detailed figures follow (000 __1— 1____ 1__1____ 1__ i_ omitted) : Per Cent increase T o t a l ............. 71 $1,015,350 $1,013;S23 $933,141 July, 1924 16.8 21.2 — - - _ . — __ _ . i j— 1924» Total Deposits, Loans and Discounts, Investments, and Bills Payable and Rediscounts of Reporting Member Banks This increase was more than offset by declines of $4,000,000 (1.9 per cent) in their loans se cured by stocks and bonds, both government and private, and $2,000,000 (0.5 per cent) in investments, so that the total volume of mem ber bank credit in use (total loans and invest ments) was smaller by $1,000,000 (0.07 per cent) at the close of the period than at its be ginning. Demand deposits increased by $16,000,000 (2.1 per cent) during the four weeks ended September 10th, and at $781,000,000 on that date were at the highest point ever reached. Septem ber, 1924 Changes occurring in the principal items of the statement of the 66 reporting member banks in this district during the month and during the year are presented in the following table. (Increases indicated by plus, decreases by minus signs.) The figures are in millions of dollars, numbers in parentheses indicating percentage changes. Change from One Month Ago Total L o an s.............................. Commercial L oans................. investm ents ............................ Demand Deposits .................. Time D eposits......................... Borrowings from Federal Reserve Bank .................... 127 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO + 1 + 5 — 2 +16 +14 0 (0.1% ) (0.6% ) (0.5% ) (2.1% ) (2.3% ) Con* Change from dition One Year Sept. 10* Ago 1924 + S 0 +16 +35 +92 ( 0.5% ) ( 4.6%) ( 4.7% ) (17.0% ) 1,008 804 363 781 633 — 60 (96.8% ) 2 for currency were met partly by an increase in Federal reserve note circulation amounting to $6,000,000 (3.0 per cent) and partly by the issue of other forms of currency, as indicated by a decline of $2,000,000 in reserves during a period when deposits increased by $4,000,000. Principal changes in the condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco during the month and during the year follow (figures are in millions of dollars): Con* Change from dition One Year Sept. 17. Ago 1924 Change from One Month Ago T otal Discounts ............... — 3 (15.8% ) Investm ents ....................... + 1 4 (24.6% ) Total D e p o sits ................... + 4 ( 2.6% ) Federal Reserve Note Cir culation .......................... + 6 ( 3.0% ) Total R e s e rv e s ...................— 2 ( 0.7% ) — 65 ( 80.2% ) + 5 0 (238.1%) + 5 ( 3.2%) 16 71 160 — 9 ( +16 ( 209 294 4.1% ) 5.8% ) Interest rates increased less than the usual seasonal amount during the four weeks ended September 13th. The following table shows weekly average interest rates on various types of paper in the New York market as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Week Week Ended Ended Sept. 20, Aug. 16. 1923 1924 1924 High Time M oney ................. 2 % -2 H % Commercial Paper . . . . 3J4 Bankers* Acceptances . 2% Total Reserves, Federal Reserve Note Circnlation. Bills Discounted, and Investments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco At the Reserve Bank the decline in dis counts, which has been in progress since August, 1923, continued, the figure for total borrowings of member banks reaching $16,000,000 on September 17th, the smallest amount reported since the latter part of 1917. Earning assets, however, owing to increased investments in United States government securities and in acceptances, were greater by $11,000,000 (14.5 per cent) on September 17th than on August 13th. Usual seasonal demands Week Ended Sept.&, 1923 2 )4 -2 # % 3 -3 % 5J4 SH % 5f4 2 4 }i 4% On September 8, 1924, the Secretary of the Treasury announced an offering of United States Treasury Certificates of Indebtedness designated as Series TS 1925, dated and bear ing interest from September 15, 1924, payable September 15, 1925, with interest at the rate of 2J4 per cent per annum, payable semiannu ally. Subscription books were closed at the close of business Wednesday, September 10, 1924, the issue having been heavily oversub scribed. In this district subscriptions amount ing to $54,483,000 were received, of which $33,791,500 were allotted. CHANGES IN THE COST OF LIVING There has been little change in the cost of living, either in this district or in the United States as a whole, during the past year. From June, 1923, to June, 1924, the figures compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statis tics generally varied less than 1 per cent. Item ized figures showing percentage increases or decreases (—) from June, 1923, to June, 1924, follow: C H A N G E S IN T H E C O S T O F L IV IN G Items of Expenditure Los Angeles Fpod ............. C o t h i n g ----H ousing ............. Fuel and L ig h t.. F u rn itu re and Furnishings . . M iscellaneous . . Portland San Francisco and Oakland Seattle .5 1.6 — ,8 — .7 .8 — .08 — .8 — .1 — .4 3.4 5.1 — .3 .5 — 3.6 — 6.9 2.2 — 3.6 — 1.6 1.6 — 1.4 — 3.5 — 1.2 — .2 Total PER C E N T I£ U 1 I I . I I SANFRANCISCO to o LOS ANGELES .— . SEATTLE 60 U.S — United States — 1.4 — .5 2.8 — 2.2 1.0 — .8 — —2.8 .4 1.1 À """ V 's 60 v/ 40 J/ DEC. 1 (5 a 0EC. 1922 ü© DEC. o u O 0EC. 1919 «0 <5 1017 DEC. -u£ DEC. 1920 DECEMI ER 19 14 Pftl CES o HO 1923 June ..................................... July ...................................... August ................................ September .......................... O c to b e r ................................ November .......................... December ........................... Wholesale Prices Farm Products Purchasing' Power ol Farm Products* 138 135 139 144 144 146 145 71 72 73 75 75 ’ 73 73 153 151 150 154 153 152 151 144 143 137 139 136 134 141 145 74 74 74 76 77 79 83 90 •These figures are the percentages which farm prices (of crops and livestock as compiled by the D epartm ent of A griculture) are of prices of commodities other than farm products and food, as reported by the B ureau of Labor Statistics. Prices of 30 agricultural commodities, including wheat, barley, apples, oranges, potatoes, beans, beef cattle, hogs, sheep, chickens, eggs, butter, milk, and wool, are considered. à A or Jr 20 Wholesale Prices General 1924 January .............................. ....151 February ............................ ....152 M a r c h .................................. .... 150 A pril ........................................ 148 M a y ...................................... .... 147 June ......................................... 145 July ...................................... ....147 A ugust .....................................150 A ê y the changes which have taken place in whole sale prices in general and in prices of farm products in particular since June, 1923. The following table shows (for the United States as a whole) the Bureau of Labor’s index num bers of general wholesale prices, and of prices of farm products, and the United States De partment of Agriculture’s index number of pur chasing power of farm products in terms of other commodities (1913 prices and 1913 pur chasing power=I00) : tj ft u <N oa Changes in the Cost of Living shown as Percentage Increase since December, 1914 It is interesting to note in connection with this comparative stability of the cost of living, To the degree that the rapid increase in the farmer’s purchasing power has been operative in this district, the business situation has been improved and mal-adjustments of economic re lationships existing since the crisis of 1920 have been corrected. COST OF LIVING IN THE TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Percentage Increase or Decrease ( — ) December* 1914 to June, 1924, June, 1920 to Jane, 1924, and June, 1923 to June, 1924. C ity Los A n geles__ P o r tla n d ........... San Francisco and Oakland. Seattle .............. United S tates... Dec.. 191410 June. 1924 35.2 28.5 ----- F o o d - --------------\ June, June, 1920 to 1923 to June, June, 1924 1924 —29.2 — .8 — 37.9 — .8 35.0 —30.4 .5 33.1 —34.3 — 1.6 35.6 —35.0 — 1.4 t--------Dec., 1914 to June, 1924 ---------N June, 1920 to June, 1924 June, 1923 to June, 1924 Dec.. 1914to June, 1924 June, 1920 to June, 1924 June, 1923 to June, 1924 39.8 7.5 .8 26.1 — 6.2 68.0 24.5 3.4 81.4 —36.3 61.1 — 37.7 — .7 — ,1 99.4 43.3 91.5 —34.2 76.2 —35.7 72.4 —39.4 — .4 — .3 — .5 38.0 64.0 — COST O F LIVING, C o n tin u e d C ity Dec., 1914 to June, 1924 P o r tla n d ............................................. San Francisco and Oakland............ S e a tt le ................................................. . United S tates................................................ 107.7 June, 1920 to June, 1924 —21.9 —28.8 —23.1 —25,1 —26.3 June, 1923 to June, 1924 —6.9 ---3.6 — 1.6 — 1.4 —2.8 Dec.. 1914to Jnne, 1924 .5 1.0 2.8 M iscellan eo n s ■ % June, June, 1923 to 1920 to Jnne, June, 1924 1924 2.2 105.1 10.0 73.0 — 3.8 — 1.6 73.2 — 3.6 — 3.5 94.6 2.2 — 1.1 95.2 — 2 .4 ,— 1?nel and I jg h t------\ June, June, Dec.. 1923 to 1920 to 1914(0 June, June, June, 1924 1924 1924 33.6 — 13.0 — .08 5.8 —3.6 55.5 1.8 5.1 49.9 56.8 — 5.5 — .8 74.9 2.7 —2.2 Dec, 1914 to June, 1924 75.1 52.8 57.3 66.7 64.1 ---- T o tal June, 1920to June, 1924 June, 1923 to June, 1924 — 13.2 0 —23.8 — 1.2 — 19.8 — 2 —20.9 2 —21.9 — .4