The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. NEWTON, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X I
San Francisco, California, October 20,1927
No. 10
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial and trade activity increased less in
September than is usual at this season of the
year and continued in smaller volume than a
year ago. The general level of wholesale com
modity prices rose further, reflecting chiefly
price advances for agricultural commodities.
Production. The Federal Reserve Board’s
index of both manufacturing and mineral pro
duction, in which allowance is made for usual
seasonal variations, decreased from August to
September. Production of iron and steel was
in smaller volume in September than in any
month since 1925. There were also decreases
from August to September in output of nonferrous metals, automobiles, and rubber tires,
while the textile and shoe and leather indus
tries continued active. Production of bitumi
nous coal showed about the usual seasonal
increase in September and October, but con
tinued in smaller volume than during the same
period of other recent years. Output of anthra
cite was considerably reduced during Septem
ber and the first half of October, follow ing an
increase in August. W eekly output of crude
petroleum has decreased slightly since the early
part of August. The value of building con
tracts awarded continued somewhat smaller
during September and the first three weeks of
PER CENT
October than during the corresponding periods
of 1925 and 1296. Declines occurred in con
tracts for residential, commercial, industrial,
and educational buildings, while contracts for
public works and public utilities were larger in
September than in the corresponding month of
any previous year.
Crop conditions improved in September, and
the Department of Agriculture’s estimates for
October 1st indicate larger yields of most grain
crops than were expected a month earlier. The
estimate for the corn crop was increased by
146,000,000 bushels and was only 43,000,000
bushels smaller than the yield in 1926. W heat
production is expected to be 34,000,000 bushels
larger than last year, while the estimated cotton
crop of 12,678,000 bales is more than 5,000,000
bales below last year’s yield.
Distribution. Trade of wholesale and retail
firms increased in September by somewhat less
than the usual seasonal amount. Compared
with a year ago, sales of wholesale firms in
nearly all lines, except shoes and drugs, were
smaller; sales of department stores were in
about the same volume, and sales of mail order
houses and chain stores were somewhat larger.
Inventories of merchandise carried by report
ing wholesale firms in leading lines were rePER
CENT
150 !
:
50
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
IN D U ST R IAL PRODUCTION
Index number of production of manufactures and minerals combined,
adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100).
Latest figure, September, 105.
W H O L E SA L E PRICES
Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1926 prices —100,
base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, September, 96.5.
74
duced in September and continued smaller than
last year. Stocks of department stores, on the
other hand, increased slightly more than is
usual in September, and at the end of the month
were somewhat larger than a year ago.
Freight carloadings were in smaller volume
during September and the first week of October
than in the corresponding period of last year for
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
.0
O c t o b e r , 192 7
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Bank Credit. Total loans and investments of
member banks in leading cities showed a fur
ther increase for the four weeks ending O cto
ber 19th, and on that date were about 660 mil
lion dollars larger than in mid-summer. Of
this growth in member bank credit, about 325
million dollars represented an increase in com
mercial loans, a considerably smaller increase
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
,------------- ^
-------------,-------------,--------
2
A L L O TH ER L O A N S
(LARGELY COM M ERC IAL )
TOTAL
RE S E R V E
BAIMK
/
CREDIT A
L
/
DISCOUN ITS FOR
MEMBER B A N K S
{
U.S.SECU1 CITIES
jn
s
X
A
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT
M on th ly averages of w e e k ly figures fo r banks in 101 leading cities.
Latest figures are averages for first three w eek ly report
dates in O cto b e r .
all groups of commodities except grain and
grain products of which loadings were larger
than in the same period of any previous year
since 1924.
Prices. W holesale com m odity prices ad
vanced in September for the fourth consecutive
month, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ all
commodities price index rose to the highest
level since last January. There were large in
creases from August to September in prices of
livestock, meats, and cotton, and small ad
vances in prices of leather, coal, and chemicals,
while prices of grains, building materials, and
rubber declined. During the first three weeks
in O ctober prices of spring wheat, corn, cotton,
coal, and iron and steel declined while prices of
livestock, raw w ool, and rubber advanced.
_____ '
/
ACCEF T A N C E S
/
j \
/ X
i
/
1
1 9 2 3
19 24
1925
1926
19 2 7
R E SE R V E B A N K C R E D IT
M on th ly averages o f daily figures fo r 12 F ed era l R e se rv e B a n ks.
Latest figures are averages o f first 23 days in O c t o b e r .
than for the same period last year. A bout 335
million dollars represented an increase in in
vestments and loans on securities. A t the re
serve banks, total bills and securities increased
during the four weeks ending October 19th, as
is usual at this season, but were on the average
about 60 million dollars below the level of the
corresponding period last year. The increase,
which was largely in the form of additions to
the banks’ holdings of acceptances, reflected
chiefly an increase in member bank reserve re
quirements and an export demand for gold.
Some seasonal firmness in the money market
in October was reflected in an increase from
3^8 to 3% per cent in rates on 90-day bankers’
acceptances. The rate on commercial paper re
mained unchanged at 4 per cent.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
Seasonal changes, with indications of im
provement in several lines of industry and
trade, were apparent in the available data of
business conditions in the Tw elfth Federal
Reserve District for September. The late
agricultural season, which heretofore has re
tarded marketing operations, served to inten
sify activity in movement of farm products as
the end of the harvest approached. Industrial
operations continued at approximately the
levels of a year ago, as did distribution and
trade, although trends in the latter field were
not clearly defined during the month. Banking
and credit statistics for late September and
early October showed a pronounced recovery
in district demands for credit. During Septem
ber and early October, total loans reported by
member banks of the district expanded to
1,291 million dollars, an increase of more than
40 million dollars (3.2 per cent) since the re
cent low point of September 7th. The increase
was chiefly in “ other loans— largely commer
cial.” In the face of an increased demand,
credit has continued in adequate supply, inter
est rates have remained relatively low for the
season of the year, and borrowings from the R e
serve Bank, although well above the levels of
early September, are lower than one year ago.
O c to b e r , 1927
Earlier forecasts indicating a total agricul
tural production approximately equal to that
of 1926 generally have been substantiated by
harvest returns. Prices are higher for most
farm products than at this time last year, ac
cording to the United States Department of
Agriculture’s index.
Volum e of industrial employment declined
slightly during the month, while payrolls
tended upward. Value of building permits was
less in September, 1927, than in August, 1927,
or September, 1926. A ctivity in the lumber and
logging and flour milling industries increased
during the month and was at higher levels than
one year ago. Production of petroleum also in
creased, but was less than in September, 1926.
The daily average dollar value of sales at
retail was greater in September, 1927, than one
month ago or one year ago. Sales at wholesale
and figures of carloadings were larger than one
month ago but smaller than one year ago.
The volume of bank debits (check payments)
in 20 principal cities of the district increased
sharply during September. After the figures
have been adjusted for usual seasonal fluctua
tions, however, the increase amounts to less
than 3 per cent. This bank’s index of bank
debits for recent months and for September and
August, 1926, fo llo w s :
B A N K D E B I T S * — T w e lfth D istrict
Sept.,
A u g .,
July, Sept.,
1927
1927
1927
1926
W it h S ea s on a l A d ju s t m e n t . . . 1291*
1250
1230 124
W it h o u t S ea son a l A d ju s t m e n t 140
111
121
120
* D a ily a v e ra g e v o lu m e o f c h e c k p a y m e n ts , 1 9 2 3 -1 9 2 5 = 1 0 0 .
lim in a ry . ^ R ev ised .
A u g .,
1926
121
110
fP re -
Agriculture
Harvesting operations of the district are now
being brought to a close. Earlier production
forecasts generally have been substantiated by
harvest returns. Unfavorable weather con di
tions in the Pacific Northwest, during Septem
ber, hampered grain harvesting operations.
Livestock ranges were improved by early rains,
however, and preparations for the planting of
fall-sown grains were facilitated. The southern
part of the district has experienced normal tem
peratures and scant rainfall during the past
six weeks.
O ctober 1st estimates of grain production in the
principal grain grow ing regions of the district
indicate that the 1927 crop of winter wheat will
probably exceed the 1926 crop by about 38 per
cent, and that production of spring wheat will
be nearly 18 per cent greater this year than last.
Field crop production figures, indicated by
current harvest returns, vary considerably
when compared with figures for last year. Cot
ton and beans show decreases of 26.4 and 12.7
per cent, respectively, while potatoes, rice, and
sugar beets show increases of 24.6, 8.4, and 38.7
per cent, respectively. Favorable weather dur
ing O ctober will govern the final output of
75
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
cotton which has a late developing top crop.
The harvest of other field crops is generally
well advanced.
P R O D U C T I O N * — G rain and F ield C ro p s
Prelim inary
Estim ate
A ctu al
O ct. 1,1927
1926
W h e a t (b u s h e ls )
T w e lfth D i s t r i c t ........................ , 134,765
103,368
U n ite d S tates ............................. . 866,538
832,809
B a rle y (b u s h e ls )
T w e lfth D i s t r i c t ........................ . 41,314
43,053
U n ite d States ............................. . 264,703
188,340
R ic e (b u s h e ls )
T w e lfth D i s t r i c t f ......................
8,659
7,986
U n ite d S t a t e s ............................. .
37,895
41,006
B ea n s (b u s h e ls )
T w e lfth D i s t r i c t ^ ......................
5,884
6,739
U n ite d S ta tes ............................. .
18,434
17,138
C o tto n (b a le s )
T w e lfth D is tr ic t§ ......................
186
253
U n ite d States ............................. .
12,678
17,977
P o ta to e s (b u s h e ls )
T w e lfth D i s t r i c t ........................ . 51,732
41,506
U n ite d S tates ............................. . 394,757
356,123
S u g a r B e e ts ( t o n s )
T w e lft h District|| ......................
1,238
892
U n ite d S tates .............................
6,757
7,223
H o p s (p o u n d s )
T w e lft h D i s t r i c t ........................ . 29,300
34,838
*000
o m itte d . fC a lifo r n ia . $ C a lifo rn ia and I d a h o .
and A r iz o n a . ||C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o , and U ta h .
F iv e -Y e a r
(1922-1926)
A v era ge
102,989
807,731
40,609
192,707
6,084
36,387
5,593
16,140
174
13,649
36,661
394,182
1,642
6,942
26,237
§ C a lifo rn ia
Export figures of wheat from the Pacific
Northwest and barley from San Francisco dur
ing the current season fo llo w :
EXPORTS OF W H EAT AN D BARLEY
- J u ly 1st — Septem ber 3 0 th ----------F iv e -Y e a r
(1923-1927)
W h e a t (b u s h e ls )
1927
1926
A v era ge
P u g e t S o u n d ......................
2,459,466
3,247,332
1,552,159
C o lu m b ia R iv e r ............... 15,040,061
11,031,097
7,970,404
T o ta l .................................. 17,499,527
B a rley (b u s h e ls )
San F r a n c i s c o ....................
4,293,535
14,278,429
9,522,563
4,158,712
4,953,635
Harvesting of the district’s important decid
uous fruit crops, which matured somewhat later
than usual this year, progressed rapidly during
the past month. Commercial apple production
in the five principal apple growing states of
the district is reported to be approximately 16
per cent smaller in volume than in 1926 and 11
per cent less than the five-year (1922-1926)
average.
A P P L E S — T w elfth D istrict and U nited States
C om m ercia l Produ ction
C a lifo rn ia
Idaho
O reg on . .
U ta h . . . .
F iv e -Y e a r
F orecast
A ctu al
(1922-1926)
O ct. 1,1927
1926
A v era g e
(000 bushels) ( 000 bushels) (000 bushels)
4,587
6,144
4,881
4,230
3,615
2,775
3,174
4,502
5,100
408
621
480
. . . 21,162
25,650
24,261
.
.
33,561
72,990
40,149
118,233
37,880
111,130
t--------June 1st — Septem ber 30th- — %
S h ip m e n ts (carloads)
1927
C a l i f o r n i a ...............................
I d a h o ......................................
O r e g o n ....................................
U ta h _.........................................
W a s h i n g t o n ..........................
656
190
4
3,124
1926
3,139
1,187
889
124
6,303
T o t a l ....................................
5,644
11,642
F ive* Y ea r
(1923-1927)
A v era ge
2,359
681
526
50
4,261
7,877
Although the condition of California citrus
fruits is reported to have improved slightly
during September, present prospects indicate
that production will be lighter during the 19271928 season, which commences on November 1,
1927, than during the 1926-1927 season. The
estimated production of the 1927-1928 Navel
76
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF
b u s in e s s
O c t o b e r , 1927
c o n d it io n s
orange crop is 11,150,000 boxes as compared
with approximately 12,154,000 boxes produced
during the year ending O ctober 31, 1927. The
1927 Valencia orange crop is estimated at 12,750.000 boxes as compared with approximately
11.260.000 boxes produced in 1926. Shipments
of oranges and lemons from California during
September, 1927, totaled 3,377 and 492 carloads,
respectively, as compared with 3,232 and 593
carloads during September, 1926. Recent price
trends have been favorable to the grower.
In California, average yields of most decid
uous fruits and a total production of apricots,
grapes and prunes in excess of the five-year
(1922-1926) average figures are reported. Ship-
Livestock and ranges throughout the Twelfth
District are in excellent condition, and livestock
will go to the fall ranges in good flesh. Recent
favorable price trends are reflected in an active
demand for breeding stock, particularly cattle.
Reports issued by the United States Depart
ment of Agriculture indicate that in the states
of the Pacific Coast there will be fewer sheep fed
during the 1927-1928 season than last year. It
is also reported that in the W estern states there
will be fewer cattle fed. High prices for grain
and for feeding stock have caused this decrease
in feeding operations.
PRODUGTION OF FRUITS A N D NUTS IN C AL IF O R N IA
Industrial activity in the district continued,
during September, at approximately the levels
of a year ago. Volum e of industrial employment
declined slightly during the month, while pay
rolls tended upward. Both employment and
payrolls were in about the same volume as in
September, 1926. Continued seasonal demand
for agricultural workers and the labor needs of
the logging industry, which has resumed active
operation follow ing abatement of the summer
fire hazard, have recently offset declining de
mands for labor in other industries.
Value of building permits granted in 92 cities
of the district declined by 8 per cent during
September, 1927, as compared with September,
1926, and by a similar amount during the first
nine months of 1927 as compared with the like
period in 1926, according to data compiled by
S. W . Straus and Company. The figures for
September, 1927, were 15.2 per cent below those
for August, 1927. In 20 principal cities, a
slightly greater decrease (17.7 per cent) in
value of permits issued was reported during
the month, whereas the eight-year (1919-1927)
average August to September movement was a
decrease of but 6 per cent. It must be borne in
mind, however, that monthly data probably in
dicate the more significant trends with less ac
curacy than do the cumulative and quarterly
total value figures of permits issued. These
latter data are presented graphically for the
Preliminary
Estimate
Oct. 1,1927
Actual
1926
(tons)
A lm o n d s .....................................
12,000
A p r ic o t s .....................................
187,000
F i g s .............................................................. .
G r a p e s .........................................
2,344,000
W in e .......................................
455,000
T a b l e .......................................
488:,000
R a is in ....................................
1,401,000
O liv e s .........................................
.......
P e a c h e s .......................................
505.,000
P e a r s ............................................
179',000
P lu m s .........................................
57,000
P r u n e s .......................................
200,000
W a ln u ts .......................................
42,000
Five-Year
(1922-1926)
Average
(tons)
(tons)
15,750
176,000
11,350
2,129,000
414,000
398,000
1,317,000
9,800
541,000
207,000
71,000
150,000
15,000
10,150
164,600
9,990
1,859,400
407,400
314,400
1,317,600
11,460
411,000
160,800
55,600
135,000
25,100
ments of grapes from California continue in
large volume. The total movement up to O cto
ber 8th amounted to 46,381 carloads, compared
with 44,268 carloads shipped by October 9th of
the 1926 season. The tonnage of grapes to be
dried as raisins is estimated to be approxi
mately the same as in 1926. (272,000 tons of
raisins were produced in California in 1926.)
Preliminary estimates place the 1927 prune
crop in this district at 220,000 tons, compared
with a total production of 187,500 tons last
year. Approxim ately 20,000 tons of the 1927
prune crop were grown in Oregon and W ash
ington, and the remainder in California.
(A) Employment—
-----Oregon- ----------- x
California--------- \ (
No. of
No. of
r— Employees —»
No.
No. t—Employees
Sept.,
Sept.,
of
Sept.,
of
Sept.,
1927
1926
1926 Firms
Firms 1927
Industries
30.095
32,453
All Industries.......... 792 167,379 172,293 164
(-7
.3
)
(-2
.9
)
S to n e , C la y
131
201
5
7,355
6,926
51
G lass P r o d u c t s .
f
L u m b e r and w o o d
M a n u fa ctu re s . . 126
T e x tile s ....................
C lo th in g , M illin e ry
an d L a u n d e r in g .
(6 .2 )
28,768
( 4 .2 )
2,690
18
( — 2 .1 )
62
7,947
(3 .2 )
F o o d s , B e v e ra g e s
an d T o b a c c o . . .
170
W a te r, L ig h t an d
P o w e r .................
5
48,305
(5 .4 )
27,599
2,748
7,697
45,823
( — 3 4.8)
17,791
63
( — 7.2)
10
8f
44
19,163
2,050
(5 .6 )
429
1,942
3,702
(— 17.4)
4,484
(B) Building Permits—
September. 1927
No.
Value
B e r k e le y ...................
Long
429
7,667
8,913
( — 14.0)
62,536
70,339
O th e r I n d u s t r ie s !. 347
( — 11.1)
6,234
5,992
2,111
2,248
34
13
M is c e lla n e o u s . . . .
( — 3 .9 )
( — 6 .1 )
f L a u n d e r in g o n ly . ^ In c lu d e s the fo llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : m etals,
m a c h in e r y and c o n v e y a n c e s ; le a th e r and r u b b e r g o o d s ;
c h e m ic a ls, o ils an d p a i n t s ; p r in t in g an d p a p e r g o o d s .
Figures in parentheses indicate percentage changes from Sep
tember, 1926.
Industry
B e a ch
..........
.
Los Angeles
O a k la n d
...................
P a sa d e n a .............. ..
P h o e n ix ...................
Portland
..............
S a c r a m e n to
..........
Salt Lake City . . ,
S an D ie g o
............
San Francisco
S an
Jose
Spokane
..
...............
...............
S t o c k t o n .................
T a com a
.................
D is t r ic t
..............
September, 1926
No.
Value
293
122
108
452
3,421
627
34
310
111
1,150
18
264
92
674
717
95
874
190
92
210
$
352,005
100,500
436,222
775,190
9,274,218
1,436,304
119,400
889 ,450
455,985
1,496,305
24,400
393,993
341,630
872,173
3,109,832
569,430
2,142,795
538,967
331,204
173,550
327
99
138
300
3,335
945
19
313
123
1,301
28
250
126
825
800
129
1,055
278
102
266
9,854
$23 ,833,553
10,759
$
670,584
154,550
147,981
657,245
8,163,581
2,123,002
79,300
675,835
254,671
2,617,580
238,690
414,973
380,565
1,413,572
4,001,012
351,845
2,862,185
592,699
114,167
403,815
$26,317,852
O c to b e r , 1927
first three-quarters of 1927 and for each of the
preceding 5 years in the accompanying chart.
Inclusion of data for public buildings con
structed and for engineering construction proj
ects, were they available, might increase the
1927 figures both absolutely and in proportion
to the figures of previous years.
M IL L IO N S
O F
D O L L A R S.
420 U
390
dicates that lumber mills of the district cut more
lumber during September than during August,
and that production was substantially in excess
of both shipments and orders received. Lumber
shipped and orders received during September,
1927, closely approximated the volume of these
items for September, 1926, while production
was greater by 6.6 per cent, according to figures
reported by mills to four associations in this
district.
LUMBER*
360
FOURTH
330
Q UARTER
I
270
240
T H IR D
Q UARTER
90
60
F IR S T
NON -FERRO US M ETALS
National Production
Sept.,
Aug.,
C o p p e r (s h o r t to n s ) (m in e
1927
1927
Q UARTER
30
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
V A L U E OF B U ILD IN G PER M IT S-20 CITIES
Cumulative and quarterly totals, 1922-1927.
Thirteen cities in the San Francisco Bay
metropolitan area reported a 21 per cent reduc
tion in value of permits granted during the
period, January 1, to October 1, 1927, as
compared with the corresponding period of
1926; 25 cities in the Pacific Northwest re
ported a corresponding decrease of 10 per
cent; while 39 cities in Southern California
(including Los Angeles, where the value of
permits granted approximates one-quarter of
the total value for 92 reporting cities) exhibited
only a 6 per cent decrease over the comparable
nine months period. Available evidence indi
cates the presence of a relatively high vacancy
percentage for multi-family dwellings and office
buildings in some of the larger cities of the
district.
Further reduction in building costs were re
ported during September. The United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of building
materials prices at wholesale (1926 p rice s=
100) declined 0.8 per cent to 92.1 during the
month. This index has declined 7 per cent since
September, 1926. After remaining unchanged
for four months, the Aberthaw index of indus
trial building costs, including both labor and
materials, declined from 192 (1914 costs=100)
to 191 during September. One year ago this
index stood at 197.
Available data for the Pacific Coast lumber
industry temporarily continue unsatisfactory
for analysis and interpretation. Current infor
mation, both statistical and non-statistical, in-
(board feet)
895,7270
818,9330
805,215
465,143
193
Sept.,1926
(board feet)
777,106 .
740,674
724,603
504,136
179
Figures of national non-ferrous metals pro
duction, together with a guide to the propor
tionate importance of this district in such pro
duction, are presented in the following table :
150
120
Aug, 1927
(boa*d feet)
828,707
743,070
725,899
483,681
193
* A s rep orted b y fo u r a s s o cia tio n s , 000 o m itte d e x c e p t in ca se o f
n u m b e r o f m ills r e p o r tin g . f R e p o r t e d b y th ree a s s o cia tio n s .
T h e fig u res are n o t s tr ic tly co m p a ra b le w ith o th e r figu res
a p p e a rin g in the ta b le. ^ A v era g e. O Revised.
S o u r c e : N a tio n a l L u m b e r M a n u fa ctu re rs A s s o c ia tio n .
Q UARTER
21 0
ISO
SECO ND
Twelfth District
Sept.,1927
P r o d u c t io n .........................................
Sh ip m en ts ...........................................
O rd e rs ...................................................
U n fille d O r d e r s t .............................
N o . o f M ills R e p o r t i n g ! ...............
300
1922
77
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO
Per Cent
of Total
Produced in
Sept., 12th Dist.*
n 1926
1926
p r o d u c t io n ) .....................
65,936
67,138
71,777
...........
56,423
55,965
L e a d (s h o r t t o n s ) ( c r u d e ) f
Z in c (s h o r t t o n s ) ( s l a b ) .
47,735
49,012
52,144
S ilve r ( o z .) (c o m m e r c ia l
b a r s ) ................................... 4,641,000 5,036,000 4,995,000
64.1
13.3
13.3
69.7
* I n c lu d in g all o f A r iz o n a , the five so u th e a ste rn c o u n tie s o f w h ich
are in th e E le v e n th F e d e ra l R e s e r v e D is t r ic t ,
fIn clu d e s
fig u re s fo r M e x ic o .
Average daily production of petroleum in
California increased slightly during September,
the third such increase this year. The general
trend of production throughout the year to
date has been downward. Indicated average
daily consumption of petroleum declined 2 per
cent during the past month, but was nearly 4
per cent larger than production. Crude oil
stocks have decreased by over 3 million barrels
(2.6 per cent) since December 30, 1926.
PETROLEUM —California
Indicated
Average
Stored
Average
Daily
Stocks at
Daily
Consumption End of
Production (Shipments)
Month
S e p t., 1 9 2 7 .. ..
A u g ., 1 9 2 7 .. ..
S e p t., 1 9 2 6 .. ..
S ou rce:
(barrels)
635,483
621,907
603,498
(barrels)
659,405
672,899
66 1 ,0 1 7
(barrels)
116,415,194
117,132,849
118,880,326
New Wells -s
_Daily
Produc
tion
Number
Opened
51
75
58
(barrels)
18,559
42,286
26,832
A m e r ic a n P e tr o le u m In s titu te .
An active demand for flour during Septem
ber was reflected in a greater than seasonal in
crease in output, but millers’ grindings for the
month were still slightly below the five-year
(1922-1926) average. Reports of 14 large mill
ing companies of the district showed Septem
ber production as 511,000 barrels, which was
92,000 barrels or 22 per cent larger than produc
tion in August, 1927. The usual seasonal in
crease has been 17.2 per cent. Millers’ stocks of
flour were reduced 7 per cent during the month
while their stocks of wheat were 72 per cent
78
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
greater at the end of the month than at its be
ginning.
FLO UR M IL L IN G
Five-Year
Average
Twelfth District
Sept., 1927
511,000t
O u tp u t ( b b l s .) .. .
S tock s*
3 8 7 ,0 0 0 t
F lo u r ( b b l s . ) . .
W h e a t ( b u . ) . . . 3 ,1 6 1 ,0 0 0 t
* A t en d o f m o n th .
Aug., 1927
S ept.,
Sept., 1926
1922-1926
419,310
484,831
519,212
4 15,484
1,843,096
437,455
2,689,582
447,061
2,538,777
Distribution and Trade
Trends in distribution and trade, as indi
cated by figures of carloadings and sales at re
tail and wholesale for this district, were not
clearly defined during September. The daily
average dollar value of sales at retail was
greater in September, 1927, than one month
ago or one year ago, while sales at wholesale
and figures of carloadings were larger than one
month ago but smaller than one year ago. If
allowance be made for usual seasonal fluctua
tions in the available data, the increase in retail
trade activity was greater, and the increase in
wholesale trade activity and in carloadings was
smaller than is expected during September.
Increases in the district’s retail trade over the
year period were small, and were the result,
chiefly, of increases reported from Los Angeles
and Seattle. A n increase in value of stocks
(C)
D e p a r tm e n t S to r e s
D r y G o o d s ...............
F u rn itu r e ...............— 2.4
M e n ’ s A p p a r e l . . — 5.8
M e n ’ s an d W o m e n ’ s
A p p a r e l ...............
5.7
W o m e n ’ s A p p a r e l. — 7.6
A ll R e p o r t in g
0.5
S to r e s ..................
. 124
. 118
96
1 9 2 7 .. .
1 9 2 6 .. . 115
108
107
93
110
San
Fran
cisco
(5) t
Salt
Lake
City
(5)t
109
103
87
112
103
82
86
106
117
94
90
116
112
90
91
120
116
107
92
114
105
111
117
110
102
106
107
103
110
103
104
108
103
91
114
111
121
112
111
118
Seattle
(5)t
Spo
kane
(3)t
Dis
trict
(28) t
1 9 2 7 ..
1 9 2 7 ..
1 9 2 7 ..
1926. .
.
.
.
.
139
119
109
128
115
108
113
115
t F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ica te n u m b e r o f s to re s. O n e s to r e in
c lu d e d in D is t r ic t fig u re s n o t in c lu d e d in citie s s h o w n a b o v e .
( 53)
( 27)
0.4 ( 4 5 )
( 10)
( 11)
1.2 ( 10) — 0.5
6.4 (
8)
(1 3 2 )
3.4 (1 1 7 )
- ■'
2.3 (3 1 )
(1 0 )
1.8 (11) 8.8 (10)
1.8 (80)
2.8 (9 9 )
* P e r p e n ta g e in cre a s e o r d e c r e a s e ( — ) . F ig u r e s in p a re n th eses
in d ica te n u m b e r o f s to r e s r e p o r tin g .
F ig u r e s o f id e n tic a l
d e p a rtm e n ts o f d e p a rtm e n t s to r e s r e p o r t in g s u c h fig u res
s e p a ra te ly in c lu d e d in sales c o m p a r is o n s o f m e n ’ s a p p a rel
s to re s, S e p te m b e r , 1927, w ith S e p te m b e r , 1926.
The smaller than seasonal increase shown by
sales at wholesale during September, and their
decrease of nearly 5 per cent, as compared with
one year ago, were in contrast with the in
creases reported for retail trade during the
month. Sharp declines in reported sales of auto
mobile tires and, to a lesser extent, decreases in
grocery and paper and stationery sales over the
year period were chiefly responsible for the
movement of our composite index of wholesale
trade during September. Some allowance
should be made in using wholesale trade data
for the effect of the present lower level of
wholesale prices (particularly for non-agricultural commodities) on current value of trade
figures as compared with those of a year ago.
W H O L E SA L E T R A D E —Twelfth District
Index Numbers of Sales*
No. of r- 1927 —
1926
Firms Sept.
S
August July
Sept.
A g r ic u ltu r a l Im p le m e n ts . .
.
13
13
15
6
20
8
. 11
19
18
7
18
148
148
.
D r u g s ........................
D r y G o o d s ............
E le c t r ic a l S u p p lie s
S h o e s ....................................
P a p e r and S ta tio n e r y . .
A ll L in e s . . . . . .................
A ll L in e s , A d ju s t e d t .
*1923-1925 m o n th ly a v e r a g e = 1 0 0 .
127
100
148
118
119
122
112
95
101
150
122
no
95
tF or
173
97
168
101
114
100
101
92
96
144
105
105
99
.
.
P a sa d e n a
S a c r a m e n to . .
S alt L a k e City
S an D ie g o . . .
San F r a n c is c o
Spok ane
D is t r ic t
..........
S ept., 1927 S ept., 1926
$
22,137
$
19,403
15,332
14,879
52,148
47,712
45,049
43,870
..
895,316
851,764
224,145
165,961
22,820
22,676
35,353
31,631
24,944
23,502
188,708
190,529
11,012
9,714
47,898
38,037
71,976
71,965
59,673
59,964
. . 1,345,227
1,004,533
28,650
28,246
250,346
235,713
61,930
57,885
30,418
27,175
47,719
43,901
15,052
15,369
. . . . . .$3,4 95,853
*000 omitted.
$3,004,429
215
92
142
100
80
84
70
89
87
85
93
93
91
119
99
197
111
115
126
117
106
101
150
129
115
102
s e a s o n a l v a r ia tio n .
(D ) Bank Debits* —
( 1923-1925 daily avera£e= 100)
With Seasonal Adjustment
S e p t.,
A u g .,
J u ly ,
S ep t.,
-------- N E T SALES*---------------- *STOCKS*
January 1 to
Sept., 1927,
Sept.30,1927, Sept.,1927,
compared
compared with compared
-with'
same period
with
Sept., 1926
Aug., 1927
in 1926
Sept., 1926
1.7 ( 4 2 )
3.6 ( 4 3 )
2.9 (3 7 )
0.8 ( 3 6 )
7.5 (
7)
7.4 (
6)
11.4 ( 5 )
3.4 ( 4)
L o n g B e a ch
L o s A n g e le s
D EPAR T M EN T STORE SALES—Index Numbers
Los
OakAngeles land
(5)t
(4)t
nal Adjustment
J u ly ,
S ep t.,
amounting to about 5 per cent during the month
and 2 per cent during the year ending Septem
ber 30, 1927, was reported by those stores for
which such information is available.
t P r e lim in a r y .
The smallest Alaskan salmon pack since
1921 is indicated by preliminary figures for
1927. Estimated at 3,396,000 cases, the 1927
pack in Alaskan waters amounts to but little
more than one-half the record pack of 1926
(6,633,278 cases). Output of canned salmon in
United States waters outside Alaska during
the present season was 23 per cent larger than
the 1926 pack but was nearly 4 per cent below
the five-year (1922-1926) average pack in that
area. Preliminary 1927 figures for the United
States (including Alaska and continental
United States), from wrhose waters about 75
per cent of the w orld’s output is ordinarily
taken, are 40.6 per cent smaller than the 1926
total of 7,491,684 cases. Preliminary estimates
of the British Columbia pack, which usually
constitutes more than two-thirds of the world
production outside the United States, indicates
that the output from Canadian waters will be
less than one-half as large this year as it was
in 1926.
O c t o b e r , 1927
r - First N in e M on th s
1927
1926
$
191,572
119,925
345,450
441,427
8,310,233
1,983,449
156,737
365,239
240,200
1,508,788
84,912
338,749
617,301
553,432
10,860,753
233,488
1,924,240
496,018
252,104
407,182
109,649
$29 ,540,848
$
172,591
118,691
324,449
451 ,384
7,811,756
1,513,844
179,218
332,432
225,379
1,621,529
81,744
291,377
630,694
578,931
9,507,225
231,781
1,916,045
500,593
239,547
411,693
116,613
$27,25.7,516
O c to b e r , 1927
79
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
Carloadings figures reported for the Twelfth
District were 3.7 per cent smaller in Septem
ber, 1927, than in September, 1926. In addition
to an actual decline in total carloadings, these
figures may reflect the late agricultural season
this year, and such changes in freight car capac
ities and loading practices as have occurred
during the past twelve months.
Prices
W holesale prices, as recorded by the United
States Bureau of Labor Statistics’ new index
of 550 commodities, averaged 1.4 per cent
higher during September than during August,
the index advancing from 95.2 (1926 p rice s=
100) to 96.5. The upward movement of the
whole index during the past three months has
brought it to within 3 per cent of the point at
which it stood in September, 1926 (99.7), and
the movement of its constituent group indexes,
during most of 1927, has generally been in the
direction of reducing existing price maladjust
ments.
Farm products prices were 6.1 per cent
higher during September than during August,
according to the United States Department of
Agriculture’s index of prices paid for produce
at the farm, which advanced from 132 (August,
1909-July, 1914 prices=100) in August to 140
in September. The United States Bureau of
Labor Statistics’ index of non-agricultural
products (1913 prices= 100)* increased but
fractionally (151.0 to 151.6) during this period,
and the ratio between the tw o indexes, an indi
cation of the purchasing power of farm prod
ucts, advanced to 92.4 (pre-war purchasing
pow er= 10 0), the highest figure it has reached
since August, 1925, and, with that exception,
the highest figure it has reached since June,
1920. The ratio stood at 93 both in August,
1925, and in June, 1920.
Cattle prices at Chicago worked steadily up
ward during September, the average for that
month being 4.3 per cent above average prices
paid during August. As compared with Sep
tember, 1926, prices were 18.1 per cent higher.
Prices for hogs were higher by 12.2 per cent in
* T h e o ld in d e x o n th e 1913 b a s e is u s e d b e c a u s e it is m o r e c o m
p a ra b le than is th e n e w in d e x w ith th e D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r i
c u ltu re ’ s fa rm p r ic e in d e x , w h ic h has n o t y e t b e e n r e v ise d on
th e 1926 ba se.
September than in August, but were 14.5 per
cent below the September, 1926, average prices.
Early in September prices for sheep at Chicago
declined sharply to figures below either August,
1927, or September, 1926, and remained at or
near the lower levels during the rest of the
month. Lamb prices declined similarly during
early September, but some strengthening of
the market occurred in the latter part of the
month, so that the average price paid during
September was only 2.5 per cent less than the
average price paid during August, and 4.5 per
cent less than the average for September, 1926.
LIVESTOCK PRICES A T C H IC A G O
Percentage changes
from
<------Cents per pound ------\
Sept.,
Aug.,
Sept., One Month OneYear
1927
1927
1926
Ago
Ago
C a ttle ............................
H ogs
.............................
S h eep .............................
L a m b s ...........................
12.29
10.20
5.66
13.50
11.78
9.09
6.03
13.84
10.41
11.93
6.06
14.13
4.3
12.2
— 6.1
— 2.5
18.1
— 14.5
— 6.6
— 4.5
Prices for wheat at Chicago declined during
September but improved slightly during the
first half of October. During the week ended
October 15th, December contract wheat ranged
from $1.29% to $1.31% per bushel as compared
with a range of $1.28% to $1.35% one month
earlier and $1.37% to $1.41% during the cor
responding week in 1926. A sharp downward
movement commenced on October 17,1927, and
on October 20th quotations for this grade of
wheat ranged from $1.24% to $1.26% per
bushel. On September 20, 1927, the price of the
December contract ranged from $1.28% to
$1.31% per bushel.
Fluctuations in cotton prices during late
September and the first half of October were
within relatively narrow limits. On October
20th, quotations for spot middling uplands
cotton at New Orleans were 19.75 cents per
pound as compared with 20.09 cents per pound
on September 20th. These prices are approxi
mately 50 per cent higher than the quotations
recorded in October, 1926.
The average of 98 wool quotations at Boston
was 0.7 per cent lower for the week ending O c
tober 15, 1927, than for the same week of 1926,
but was 2.1 per cent higher than during the
week ending September 17, 1927. The trend of
this average has been upward since May 20,
1927.
(E) Commodity Prices—
C om m od ity
W h o le s a le P r ic e s (U . S. B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s — 1926 p r i c e s = 1 0 0 ) .
P u r c h a s in g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s ( U . S. D e p t, o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) * . . . .
W h e a t ............................... C h ic a g o c o n t r a c t p r ice f o r D e c e m b e r w h e a t................
W o o l ..................................A v e r a g e o f 98 q u o t a t io n s at B o s t o n ..............................
A p p le s ............................... J on a th a n s, E x tr a F a n c y , f. o . b. P a c ific N o rth w e s t
O r a n g e s ............................ V a le n c ia s , F a n c y , w h o le s a le at San F r a n c i s c o . . . .
P r u n e s ............................... S iz e 4 0 /5 0 in 25-lb. b o x e s , f. o. b . C a lifo r n ia .............
R a is in s ...............................Seed less, b u lk , in 2 5-lb. b o x e s , f. o. b. C a lifo r n ia ..
C a n n ed P e a c h e s ............ C h o ic e C lin g , s lice d , 2 ^ s , f. o . b . C a lifo r n ia ..........
B u t t e r ................................92 s c o r e at San F r a n c i s c o ....................................................
C o p p e r ................................E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n th ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .............
L e a d .................................... M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .........................................
S ilv e r .................................. M o n th ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k ..........................................
L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) . .W e e k ly I n d e x , U n ite d S t a t e s f .........................................
Unit
Oct. 7,1927
96.5
92.4
bu .
lb .
box
box
lb.
lb.
doz.
lb .
lb .
lb .
o z.
$ 1 .3 0 ^ -1 .3 1 ^
66 . 68 $
$ 2 .0 0 -2 .1 0
7 .5 0 -8 .2 5
.06*4
1.7 5 -1 .8 5
.48
12.940$
6.297$
55.445$
29.91
One Month Ago
95.2
87.4
$ 1 . 3 6 ^ - 1 .3 8 ^
65.18$
N o t q u o te d
$6 .2 5 -7 .5 0
.0 5 3 4 - .0 6 4
.06*40
1 .75-1.8 5
.46
12.971$
6.681$
54.718$
29.68
One Year Ago
99.7
83.0
$ 1 .3 9 ^ - 1 .4 2
67.38$
$ 1 .1 0 -1 .2 5
5 .2 5 -5 .7 5
.0 7 ^ -.0 8
.0 7 * 4 a
2 .0 0 -2 .1 0 0
.44
14.062$
8.786$
6 0.580$
29.91
*Ratio of farm prices (August, 1909-July, 1914 prices=100) to wholesale prices of non-agricultural commodities (1910-1914 prices=
100). tA s published by “ The Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer.” ^Revised.
O c t o b e r , 1927
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
80
Non-ferrous metals were lower in price dur
ing September, 1927, than during September,
1926. Zinc and lead were lower than during
August, 1927, while copper was unchanged, and
silver was higher in September than in the
preceding month.
Banking and Credit
Banking and credit statistics for late Septem
ber and early October, show a pronounced re
covery in district demands for credit accom m o
dation. Anticipated autumn expansion in pri
mary demand for credit, which is now reflected
in bank reports, was delayed this year, as noted
in the September Review, due to a greater than
seasonal mid-summer slackening in commercial
activity, the retarded agricultural season, and
consequent business hesitancy during August.
M IL L IO N S
OF
mercial” .which rose during that period (Sep
tember 7th to October 12th) by over 30 million
dollars or 3.2 per cent, reaching a total of 955
million dollars. Concurrently with this growth
in commercial demand for funds, investment
holdings of reporting banks were increased sub
stantially and recourse was again had to the
Federal Reserve Bank. Reporting member
banks’ borrowings increased sharply from 9 to
52 million dollars during the four-week period
ended October 12th. On O ctober 12th these
borrowings were larger than at any time since
the autumn of 1926. Between mid-September
and m id-October net demand deposits declined
26 million dollars, while time deposits in
creased by an equal amount.
REPORTING M EM B ER B A N K S— Twelfth District
(in million« of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses)
Condition t--------- Changes from --------- »
Oct. 12,
One Month
One Year
1927
Ago
Ago
D O LLA R S
T o t a l L o a n s ................................ 1,291
955
C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s .................
L o a n s o n S e c u r itie s ...............
336
545
In v e s tm e n ts ...............................
T o t a l L o a n s an d I n v e s tm e n ts 1,836
N e t D e m a n d D e p o s it s ..........
793
T im e D e p o s it s ...........................
945
B o r r o w in g s fro m F e d e ra l
52
R e s e r v e B a n k ........................
M EM B ER BANK CR ED IT—T W E L F T H DISTRICT
Figures for about 65 member banks in leading cities, as of last
Wednesday of each month. Latest figures, October 12th.
Credit has continued in ample supply, and in
terest rates have remained relatively low for
this season of the year. The credit demands of
agriculture, commerce, and industry were un
usually small during early September, and the
commercial loans of reporting member banks
showed little change while their deposits in
creased. Funds thus made available to the
banks were used in liquidating their bills pay
able and rediscounts with the Reserve Bank
and in adding to their investment holdings.
During the tw o weeks ended September 14th,
member banks’ borrowings from the Reserve
Bank declined from 36 to 9 million dollars,
while their investment holdings increased dur
ing the same period from 496 to 522 million
dollars. W ith the approach of the peak of the
harvest season, at the close of September and
in early October, total loans reported by mem
ber banks expanded to 1,291 million dollars, an
increase of over 40 million dollars (3.2 per cent)
from the low level of September 7th. This in
crease was chiefly in “ other loans— largely com-
( + = increase.
+ 29 (
2 .3 )
+ 26 (
(
+ 23 (
4 .4 )
+ 52 ( 2 .9 )
— 26 (
3 .1 )
+ 26 (
+ 3
+43
- - = decrease. )
2.8)
1.0)
+ 12 ( 1.0)
+ 12 ( 1.3)
0 ( 0.0)
2.8)
+ 70
+82
— 15
+ 59
(4 7 0 .2 )
—
(1 4 .8 )
( 4 .7 )
( 1.9 )
( 6 .6 )
5 ( 9 .1 )
W eekly condition statements of the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco for the midSeptember, m id-October period have reflected
the expansion in demand for credit accom m o
dations discussed above. Recent demands on
the Reserve Bank have not been so heavy as in
the corresponding period of 1926 and volume
of discounts held by that bank on O ctober 12th,
although well above the temporary low level
of September 14th, was 6 million dollars (8.4
per cent) smaller than on O ctober 13, 1926.
Acceptance holdings of the Reserve Bank at
m id-October were substantially lower than at
mid-September, 1927, and at m id-October,
1926 (33 and 61 per cent, respectively). In
creased borrowing by member banks during
recent weeks has resulted in an 8 per cent re
duction in cash reserves of the Federal Reserve
Bank, but total resources on O ctober 12, 1927,
were still 12 million dollars or 4.5 per cent
larger than one year ago. The primary reserve
ratio* declined from 82.8 (the highest figure
reported since August, 1924) on September 14,
1927, to 74.0 on O ctober 12th, which compares
with 72.4 on O ctober 13, 1926.
FED ER AL RESERVE BAN K OF SAN F R A N C ISC O
(In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses)
Condition
Oct. 12,
1927
T o t a l B ills and S e c u r i t i e s . ..
B ills D is c o u n t e d ........................
U n it e d S tates S e c u r itie s . . . .
B ills B o u g h t ................................
T o t a l R e s e r v e s ..........................
T o t a l D e p o s i t s .............................
F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te
________
C ir c u la tio n ................................
* R a tio o f to ta l re se rv e s
n o te s in c ir c u la tio n .
to
t---------Changes from--------- \
One Month
One Y ear
Ago
Ago
( + = increase.
+ 37 ( 4 7 .4 )
+ 42 (2 4 3 .6 )
115
59
46
10
269
190
— 5 ( 3 2.7)
— 25 ( 8 .4 )
+ 7 (
3 .7 )
174
+
— 1 ( 1.1)
2 (
to ta l d e p o s its
1 .4 )
and
— =*= decrease.)
— 14 (1 0 .6 )
— 6 ( 8 .4 )
+ 7 (1 7 .8 )
— 15 (6 1 .1 )
+ 12 ( 4 .5 )
+ 12 ( 6.5 )
— 17 ( 8 .9 )
F e d e ra l re s e r v e
@FedFRASER