The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S I N E S S C O N D IT IO N S JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. VII San Francisco, California, October 16, 1923 No. 10 Sum m ary o f National Conditions which reflects chiefly changes in the output of Production of basic commodities declined during September, wholesale trade continued large, while retail trade, though larger than a year ago, increased less than is usual at this season of the year. Wholesale prices, particu larly those of agricultural products, advanced during the month. Production. Production in basic industries, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s in dex, declined 5 per cent during September, and was 10 per cent below the peak output of May, 1923. The principal factors in this decline were the suspension of anthracite coal mining for over two weeks and a substantial reduction in the production of iron and steel. Cement pro duction and sugar meltings were larger than in August. The decline in the production index, which is corrected for seasonal variations and raw and semi-finished products, was not ac companied by a reduction of employment at industrial establishments. New building con struction showed about the usual seasonal de cline in September due to a curtailment in con tracts for residences. Contract awards for busi ness and industrial buildings, however, were larger than in August. Estimates by the United States Department of Agriculture on October 1st showed some reduction from the Septem ber forecasts in the yields of corn, wheat, oats, and tobacco, but increased yields of cotton, potatoes, and hay. Trade. Distribution of all classes of com modities by railroads continued at a high rate throughout September. Wholesale trade, ac cording to the Federal Reserve Board’s index, in September reached the largest total in three M IL L IO N S Index of Production in Basic Industries C om bination o f 22 individual series corrected for seasonal variation (1919 average = 100 per cent) OF DOLLA RS B IL L IO N S OF 0 0 L L A R S Prices Bank Credit Bank Credit In d ex num bers of w h olesale prices, U n ited States Bureau of Labor Statistic# (1913 a v e r a £ e = 1 0 0 per cent) All Federal R eserve Banks 800 mem ber banks in lead ing cities Those desiring th is review sent th em reg u la rly w ill receive it w ith ou t charge upon application. 146 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS years and was 9 per cent larger than a year ago. Sales of meat, hardware, and drugs were con siderably larger than during last September, while shoe sales were smaller. Retail trade was slightly larger in September, but the increase was much less than is usual at this season of the year. Department store sales were 6 per cent greater in value than in September, 1922, and stocks at the end of the month were 13 per cent larger than a year ago. Prices. Wholesale prices increased over 2 per cent during September according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, par ticularly large increases occurring in the prices of clothing, farm products, and foods. Fuel prices, on the other hand, declined in Septem ber for the eighth successive month, and prices of building materials and metals were also lower. During the first three weeks of October prices of certain farm products continued to advance, wheat and cotton reaching the highest points of the current year, while prices of hogs, coal, and metals declined. Bank Credit. Demand for bank credit showed a seasonal increase in September and the early part of October, loans of member banks in lead ing cities increasing by $116,000,000 between September 12th and October 10th. This in crease reflected chiefly the demand for com mercial loans, which on the latter date stood at a new high point for the year, almost $100,000,000 above the total on September 12th. In creases in the holdings of government securi ties by these banks were partly offset by reduc tions in corporate security holdings. The de mand for accommodation at the Federal Re serve banks in some of the agricultural districts increased, while at the Reserve banks in the East the volume of discounts for member banks declined. Federal Reserve note circula tion continued to increase, and in the middle of October was about $100,000,000 above the July level. In October, money rates showed an easier tendency and after the fifteenth of the month rates for commercial paper in the New York market declined from a range of 5 Y ^-Sy^ per cent to 5-5^4 per cent. Summary of District Conditions Large production in the principal industries of the district and wide distribution of goods at wholesale and retail during September were offset by declines in other business activities, so that the total volume of trade in the district, as measured by debits to bank accounts cor rected for seasonal changes, was smaller dur ing September than in any previous month o£ 1923. It continued, however, ten per cent in excess of September, 1922, when the volume of trade was large and increasing. Borrow ings at member banks during the month were practically unchanged in amount and have, since the midsummer low, shown only a nor mal seasonal increase of $22,000,000, or 2.2 per cent, to a total of $1,000,000,000 on October 12th. A t the same time rediscounts at the Federal Reserve bank have recently declined by $20,000,000 or 22.1 per cent to $71,000,000 on October 17th. This movement is also large ly seasonal, accompanying repayment by cus tomers of their borrowings at member banks following harvesting and marketing of the crops. Total reserves of this bank at $297,000,000 on October 17th were the largest since its organization. Interest rates both in this district and in the New York market were un changed during the month, the open market commercial paper rate at New York City re maining at 5 Ya to 5 y 2 per cent, and the rates to customers of large city banks of the district at from 5 % per cent in San Francisco to 7 per cent in Portland, Salt Lake City, Seattle and Spokane. A comparison of credit conditions at the be ginning of October, 1923, and 1922, with the peak points of 1923, is tabulated below : M ember B a n k s O ct. 10,1923 Peak 1923 Total Loans .........$1,000,000,000 $1,008,000,000 Total Investments 350,000,000 373,000,000* Total Deposits . . . 1,303,000,000 1,305,000,000 Borrowings from Federal Reserve Bank ................... 53,000,000 62,000,000 Oct. 17, 1923 F ederal R eserve B a n k T otal Discounts .$ 71,000,000 $ Total Investments 21,000,000 Total Reserves . . 297.000.000 Federal R e s e r v e Note Circulation 221.000.000 I nterest R ates N ew York C i t y (Prim e Commer cial P a p e r )......... San Franci sco (Rates to large c u s t o m e r bor rowers at banks) Oct. 13, 1923 5^4% % 6,000,000 Peak 1923 91.000.000 87.000.000 297.000.000 Oct. 11,1922 887,000,000* 338.000.000* 1,226,000,000* Oct. 18. 1922 $ 37,000,000 94,000,000 243.000.000 244.000.000 224.000.000 Peak 1923 Oct. 14, 1922 sy4% 4 /'2 % Sept., 1923 Peak 1923 Sept., 1922 5^-6% 5^-6% l % 5A *O w ing to a change in the composition of the list of reporting banks these figures are not exactly comparable with those of October 10, 1923. Continued capacity operation was reported for the lumber industry during September, and the volume of orders received and shipments made increased as the month progressed until at its close new business was in excess of pro duction, this being the first time that such a condition has existed since April, 1923. Some hesitation was apparent in the mining industry during the month, demand for the principal FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO metals produced in the district remaining slug gish, and although production has been well maintained some of the high cost producers are finding it necessary either to shut down their properties or to operate at a loss. Re porting flour millers of the district milled more flour during September than during any month since August, 1920, when figures were first compiled. A large part of the record output was used in the export trade, and the re mainder, less current domestic consumption, placed in storage. Daily average production of petroleum in California was greater by 6,000 barrels or 0.7 per cent during September than during August. Consumption increased 10 per cent during the same period, and although more oil was produced than was consumed, the amount of the difference, which must be stored, was materially reduced. A further re duction in petroleum prices from those named on August 1st was announced on October 9th. Present prices for this product are but 20 per cent above the pre-war level, compared with 50 per cent for wholesale prices in general. The number and value of building permits is sued in 20 cities of the district declined season ally during September, but building continues unusually active in all sections. Harvesting of the district’s crops has moved toward completion under generally favorable conditions, and livestock are reported to be thriving. The transportation situation as it affects the marketing of the perishable crops of the district has improved greatly over a year ago, but the height of the grape shipping season in California finds a small shortage of refrigerator cars. Relatively low prices named on 1923 crop canned and dried fruits have stim ulated demand for these products. Trade at retail reported by 35 department stores was 10.9 per cent greater in value dur ing September, 1923, than during September, 1922. Stocks of goods held by these stores were 13.3 per cent larger on October 1, 1923, than on October 1, 1922, but the annual rate of turnover indicated by the relation of sales to stocks was approximately the same in both years. There was little change in wholesale trade conditions during September, five of the eleven reporting lines showing moderate in creases in value of sales as compared with August and six small decreases. Trade in all lines except automobile tires and dry goods was greater in value than during September a year ago, while the level of wholesale prices now prevailing is approximately the same as it was then. Business failures were less both in number and in amount of liabilities than in August, 1923, or September, 1922. 147 The general wholesale price level in the United States rose from 150 in August to 154 in September (1913 prices=100) according to the index number of the United States Depart ment of Labor, definitely checking the down ward price tendency which has been notice able since last May. Among the commodity groups included in the general index the larg est price gains were reported for cloth and clothing, farm products, and food. Prices of the principal agricultural products of this dis trict, with few exceptions, held the gains of the previous month during September. Prices in the building materials group of the Bureau of Labor’s index were lower in September than in August, as were prices in the fuel and light ing, and metals and metal products group. The price of copper, one of the principal metals produced in this district, fell to the lowest level reached this year when it sold for 13 cents per pound in the New York market at the close of vSeptember, and at a fraction below this price early in October. Lumber prices continued firm. Crop Conditions and Markets Early maturing crops of the district had all been harvested by the close of September, and the harvest of later maturing crops was pro ceeding under generally favorable conditions. Threshing of the district’s wheat crop, now rapidly approaching completion, has brought fulfilment of previous forecasts of a record yield of this grain. The United States Depart ment of Agriculture’s preliminary estimate of production for 1923 now stands at 141,332,000 bushels, compared with the 1922 yield of 99,277,000 bushels. The total United States crop is now estimated by the same authority at 782,000,000 bushels, a reduction of 7,000,000 bushels from the previous month’s forecast and 80,000,000 bushels below the final estimate for 1922. The October 1, 1923, preliminary estimates and the final 1922 yield of wheat and oats by states in this district and for the United States, as reported by the Department of Agriculture, are given in the following table: Estimated Yield Oct. 1. 1923* A ll Wheat Oats (bushels) (bushels) Actual Y ie ld -1 9 2 2 * A ll Wheat Oats (bushels) (bushels) Arizona ............... 1,092 710 16,456 5,198 California .......... Idaho .................. 29,855 7,820 Nevada ................ 548 123 Oregon ................ 26,550 10,406 Utah .................... 6,170 3,612 W ashington ___ 60,661 11,312 Tw elfth District 141,332 39,181 U nited S t a te s ... 782,000 1,302,453 1,274 620 15,308 5,250 24,275 6,156 550 112 19,744 6,675 5,682 3,354 32,444 7,959 99,277 30,126 862,000 1,201,436 *000 omitted. 148 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Seasonal increases in activity in wheat mar kets of the district were reported during Sep tember as compared with the two previous months of the current cereal year. Demand, as measured by the movement of wheat, how ever, was less active during September, 1923, than during September, 1922, or 1921. Total movement of wheat from this district during the past three months has been nearly equal to that of the corresponding period in 1922, and ap proximately one-half as great as during the first quarter of the 1921-1922 cereal year. Exports of wheat from Portland and the Puget Sound ports totaled 4,127,320 bushels during Septem ber, 1923, compared with exports of 5,439,828 bushels during September, 1922, and 5,306,767 bushels during September, 1921. Prices for wheat advanced slightly during September and the first half of October. Milling wheat was quoted at $2.00 to $2.05 per cental ($1.20 to $1.23 per bushel) at San Francisco on October 15th, whereas one month ago it was quoted at $1.90 to $1.95 per cental ($1.14 to $1.17 per bushel). On October 14, 1922, a comparable grade of wheat sold for $1.95 to $2.00 per cen tal ($1.17 to $1.20 per bushel). Harvesting of field crops became general in all sections of this district during September and, for most crops, was approaching comple tion by the middle of October. A large crop of sugar beets is being dug and shipped to sugar factories of the district. The forecasted yield (1,900,000 tons) as of October 1st is slightly greater than was previously estimated and considerably greater than the production of 1,539,000 tons in 1922. October 1st estimates of the United States Department of Agricul ture place the 1923 yield of potatoes in Cali fornia, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington at 33,844,000 bushels, a small advance over the September 1st forecast, but approximately 17 per cent below the final estimate for 1922, which was 40,740,000 bushels. Prices to grow ers generally have been higher than last year at this time, an average comparison showing an advance in price of approximately 20 cents per 100 pounds over the year period. P R IC E S P A ID G R O W E R S F O R P O T A T O E S Oct. 1, 1923 Oct. 1,1922 (100 p ounds) Idaho Falls, Id ah o ................ (100 poun ds) $ .7 0 ........... $ .40-$ .60 Picking and ginning of cotton in Arizona and California is progressing rapidly. On Sep tember 25th the 1923 cotton crop in these two states was estimated at 127,000 bales by the United States Department of Agriculture, an increase of 1,000 bales over the forecast of August 25th, and a yield approximately 67 per cent greater than the 1922 production of 76,000 bales. Commercial factors state that Pima long staple cotton comprises about 45 per cent (20,- 000 bales) of the 1923 crop in Arizona, com pared with approximately 70 per cent or 32,786 bales last year. This sharp decrease in pro duction of long staple cotton is reported to have followed upon a marked decline in the premium paid for long staple as compared with medium staple varieties of cotton which are more easily grown and produce larger yields per acre. Restricted yields of the shorter staple cottons in the United States during the past two years and increasing competition with Egyptian grown cotton in the long staple mar kets have been the principal causes of this con traction of price differentials. The following statistical summary presents pertinent data concerning the relative positions of Pima and Egyptian cotton in United States markets dur ing the past two crop years. Pima* Mill Consumption Year ending July 31, 1923 1922 (bales) (bales) 65,126 49,359 Egyptian ..2 6 1 ,3 2 6 226,330 Crop and Imports Year ending July 31, 1923 1922 (bales) (bales) 32,786t 37,094$ 329,335§ 233,729§ Estimated Carryover Stocks July 31, 1923 1922 (bales) (bales) 29,221 58,955 137,954 116,290 * Running bales— Egyptian cotton given in 500-pound bales. f !9 2 2 crop. $1921 crop. §Imports. Commercial reports indicate that cotton of the 1923 crop has generally been sold as rapid ly as it was ginned at prices well above those paid a year ago. Reported returns to growers are shown in the following table: Oct. 1, 1923 Sept 1, 1923 O ct. 1, 1922 (p er p o u n d ) (per p o u n d ) (per p oun d) Pima L o n g Staple— No. 1 grade 35^ Medium Staple— Average grade 2Sy^4 30^ 2 64 344 20 4 Rice is now (October 16th) being harvested in California and a total crop of 6,006,000 bushels (2,702,700 centals) is in prospect. The 1922 yield was estimated at 8,260,000 bushels (3,717,000 centals). Large quantities of 1922 crop rice have been shipped to Japan during the past month in connection with relief work being carried on in that country, and the old crop carryover in California has been greatly reduced. Present stocks of 1922 crop rice in that state, estimated at 55,000 centals on Octo ber 1st, are but one-third as large as the carry over of 1921 crop rice held on October 1, 1922. During the first weeks of October growers sold number one paddy rice of the 1923 crop (future delivery) at prices ranging from $2.75 to $3.00 per cental. Average returns to growers for the 1922 California rice crop have been ap proximately $2.50 per cental, and that was the price paid growers in October, 1922. The California bean crop has not been fav ored by the weather as have other crops, and earlier estimates of the 1923 yield have been reduced slightly, now standing at 4,336,000 bushels, including 1,620,000 bushels of lima 1 49 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SA N FRANCISCO beans and 2,716,000 bushels of other varieties. The total crop in California amounted to 4,778,000 bushels last year, composed of 2,125,000 bushels of lima beans and 2,653,300 bushels of other varieties. The Department of Agriculture forecasts a 1923 production of beans in Idaho totaling 990,000 bushels, compared with 364,000 bushels produced last year. Lima bean prices have advanced slightly during recent weeks and are now approximately 35 per cent higher than one year ago. Prices for other varieties of beans range from 5 to 20 per cent higher than last year at this time. Estimates of the 1923 production of the prin cipal deciduous fruits of the district remain approximately the same as reported in the September Review. Heavy shipments of fresh fruits to eastern marketing centers have con tinued. Transportation facilities proved ade- 28,017,000 boxes (bushels) and 92,865,000 boxes (bushels) respectively. Pacific Northwestern apples are reported to be of excellent quality and well colored this season. Early season varieties of boxed apples met with sharp com petition from local grown fruit in eastern con suming centers and prices have been low. Many growers in the Pacific Northwest are reported to be shipping intermediate varieties of apples to eastern markets and placing them in cold storage there. Total shipments of oranges and lemons from California up to October 1st of the past two seasons have been as follow s: N ov. 1st to O ct. 1st 1922-1923 1921-1922 (cars) Oranges ............................................. 48,571 Lem ons .............................................. 8,177 (cars) 28,169 9,613 Canned and Dried Fruits CARLOADS f quate to handle the increased shipments until the beginning of the major seasonal movement of grapes from California late in September and during the first weeks of October, when a moderate car shortage and some congestion in eastern terminal markets were reported. The transportation situation as it affects the perish able products of this district, however, has im proved greatly as compared with a year ago. Total deciduous fruit shipments and shipments of grapes from California up to October 7th of the past two seasons are given in the following t a ^^e : 1923 Season to October 7th (cars) Grapes ............................................ T otal Deciduous F ruits......... 26,316 43,267 1922 Season to October 7th (cars) 19,428 31,610 October 1st crop reports of the Department of Agriculture place the 1923 commercial apple crop in the Pacific Northwest at 36,729,000 boxes (bushels) and estimate the total com mercial crop in the United States at 99,312,000 boxes (bushels), compared with 1922 yields of The peak of the fruit canning season in Cali fornia has now been passed, and although of ficial statistics of the 1923 pack are not yet available, commercial reports indicate that canners did not materially alter their early season plans which called for a pack appreciably smaller than that produced in 1922 (15,477,865 cases). Canners in the Pacific Northwest this season have generally followed a policy of packing fruit only to fill orders received. Ris ing prices for canned fruits during recent weeks have caused an increase in volume of such business, and, as these packers are still operating on the later varieties of fruit, it is reported that the total of the 1923 pack may be somewhat larger than was previously esti mated, although still below the pack of 1922. Domestic demand for canned fruits has in creased moderately during recent weeks, and some wholesalers and jobbers are reported to have abandoned their earlier plan of buying to meet current needs only, and to be now satis fying a part of their future requirements. Ex port sales have continued in relatively small volume, although activity in the foreign mar ket during the first weeks of October was re ported to have been greater than during any previous period this season. Opening prices, and those advances over opening prices which were announced about the middle of Septem ber, have been well maintained during the last four weeks. On October 10th the largest fac tor in the trade withdrew from the market its offerings of some grades and sizes of apricots, cherries, grapes, peaches, pears, and plums. Commercial reports indicate that the rel atively low prices prevailing for most varieties of dried fruits during recent months have greatly stimulated demand, and that as a result carryover stocks of 1922 crop fruits have been 150 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS materially reduced. The growers’ association controlling the bulk of dried apricots and prunes produced in California states that practically all of its 1922 crop dried apricots have been sold, and that its carryover of prunes has been reduced by 60 per cent during the past month. On October 11, 1923, it held 5,000 tons of 1922 crop prunes or approximately 5 per cent of that year's crop. Unsold stocks of 1922 crop prunes in the Pacific Northwest are reported to have been reduced by more than 50 per cent during the month. An increasing demand for California raisins is reported to have substantially reduced the carryover of 1922 crop fruit during recent months, stocks of old crop raisins on September 30th being placed at approximately 50,000 tons out of a total crop of 220,000 tons. On October 1st the Department of Agriculture estimated the 1923 California raisin crop at 235,000 tons, including not more than 200,000 tons of standard grade. Unsold stocks of dried peaches and figs held in California on October 1, 1923, were reported to be slightly larger than stocks held one year ago. Livestock Adequate supplies of feed and water have been available for livestock on ranges and pas tures in practically all sections of the district, and cattle and sheep are generally in excellent THOUSANDS sheep to the Intermountain markets for trans shipment to eastern feeder markets contributed greatly to the large increase of sheep receipts. Total receipts of all classes of livestock at eight principal markets in the district were larger than in September, 1922, as shown by the fol lowing table: Cattle September, 1923.. 74,806 August, 1923.. 69,256 September, 1922.. 70,328 Calves Hogs Sheep 20,343 23,918 19,295 147,026 170,161 97,143 339,027 239,364 321,273 The trend of prices for better grades of beef cattle in the district’s markets continued up ward during September, a movement contrary to that reported in the large central markets of the United States. There was also a slight ad vance in sheep and lamb prices. Prevailing prices for feeder sheep and lambs are reported to be higher than one year ago. Prices for hogs in the chief markets of the district de clined during the month. Dairy and Poultry Products Production of butter declined during Sep tember, as is customary at this season of the year, and consumption of cold storage butter increased. Holdings of cold storage butter in the four principal markets of the district de creased from 6,312,719 pounds on September 1st to 4,893,783 pounds on October 1, 1923. Present stocks of cold storage butter in these markets are 24.5 per cent smaller than the record total holdings of 6,488,668 pounds re ported on August 1, 1923, but are 65.2 per cent greater than total holdings of 2,961,970 pounds on October 1, 1922. Although the volume of cold storage hold ings of eggs in six principal markets of this dis trict has decreased moderately during the past two months, a normal seasonal movement fol lowing the close of the heavy egg producing season in July, stocks held on October 1, 1923, were 21.7 per cent greater than similar stocks held on October 1, 1922. A summary of the cold storage holdings of butter and eggs in the chief markets of the Twelfth District is given in the following table: O ct. 1,1923 Sept. 1,1923 Aug. 1,1923 O ct. 1.1922 Receipts of Livestock at Eight of the Principal Markets of the District 1922*1923. (Los Angeles. Ogden, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle, Spokane, and Tacoma included) condition. The grazing season on summer ranges in the mountain districts ends during October and livestock are already being moved to winter feeding grounds. As is usual during September, receipts of cattle and sheep increased and receipts of calves and hogs declined at the eight principal markets in this district. Heavy shipments of Butter (pounds) 4,893,783 6,312,719 6,488,668 2,961,970 E ggs (cases) . . 504,392 600,331 665,208 414,205 Prices Marked price increases in the cloth and clothing, farm products, and food groups of the United States Department of Labor’s index number of wholesale prices caused that index to advance from 150 in August to 154 in September (1913 prices=100), an increase of nearly 2j4 per cent. The figure reported for FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T SAN FRANCISCO September is the highest since May, 1923, when the recent gradual decline in wholesale prices began. The index numbers for the past six months follow: April, 1923.................. 159 M ay, 1923.................. 156 June. 1923.................. 153 July, 1 9 2 3 .... 151 August, 1 9 2 3 .... 150 September, 1 9 2 3 .... 154 The September, 1923, price level was ap proximately one-half of one per cent higher than in September, 1922. Agricultural products in general held much of the price gains of August during the month of September, and in some cases further ad vances were recorded. All classes of livestock at central markets sold at slightly lower levels during September, however, and declines in prices of wool, barley, and rice were noted. The majority of the principal agricultural and livestock products of this district, including sheep, wool, wheat, barley, rice, cotton, and sugar, sold at prices above those of a year ago. W heat prices on the Chicago market streng thened during the past month. December 151 wheat was quoted at $1.07^ to $1.08^ per bushel on October 15th, compared with a quo tation of 9 9 ^ cents per bushel on September 12th and $1.09^4 to $1.12y 2 per bushel on INDEX N UM B ER S ________ Wholesale Prices and the Cost of Living. 1920-1923 U n ited States Bureau of Labor In dex o f W h o le sa le Prices (1 9 1 3 — 100) N ational Industrial C on feren ce Board In dex o f th e C ost of L iving (Ju ly 1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ) (A) Commodity Prices— Commodity Tw enty Basic Commodities (F . R. B. of N. Y .) 1913=100. W holesale Prices (U. S. Bureau of Labor) 19 1 3 = 1 0 0 ......... Cost of Living (National Industrial Conference Board) July, 1914=100 ................................................. ................... . . .......... Cattle (Native B e e f). . .W eek ly average price at C h icago.. Sheep ..................................W eekly average price at C h icago.. Lambs ............................... W eek ly average price at C h icago.. H og s .................................... W eek ly average price at C h ica g o .. W h eat ....................Chicago contract price for Dec. W h e a t .. Barley .................... Shipping Barley f. o. b. San F rancisco.. Rice ......................... California Fancy Japan at San Francisco Cotton ........ ...........Middling Uplands— W eekly range of spot quotations at New O rleans........................ W o o l .......................Average of 98 quotations at B oston .......... Flour .......................First Grade Family Patent f. o. b. Cali fornia m i l l s ........................................................ Sugar . . . . . . . . . . . Beet Granulated f. o. b. San F ran cisco.. Apples .................... Extra Fancy Jonathans f. o. b. Pacific N o r th w e s t .......................................................... Oranges ............V a le n c ia s, Special Brands, L os Angeles. Lem ons ................. Special Brands at Los An g e l e s . . . . . . . . . . Dried A p p le s .. . .Choice in 50-lb. boxes f. o. b. C alifornia.. Dried Apricots.. .Choice in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. C alifornia.. Prunes ................... Size 40/50 in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. Calif____ Raisins .................. Loose Muscatel in 25-lb. boxes f. o. b. California .......................................................... Canned Apricots.Choice 2 # s f. o. b. C a lifo r n ia ................... Canned Peaches..Cling Choice, 2 # s f. o. b. California......... Canned P ears___Bartlett, Standard 2 1 / 2 s f. o. b. California. Raw Milk . . . . . . .Pacific Coast— September average............. Butter . . . . . . . . . . 9 3 score at San Francisco............................... E ggs .......................Extras— San F r a n c isc o ..................................... Copper ................... Electrolytic; N ew Y ork S p o t....................... Lead ........................N ew Y o rk S p ot....................... ............................ Silver ..................... New Y o rk Foreign ........................................... Zinc .........................East St. Louis S p ot........................................... Petroleum .............California 35° and above.................................. Douglas F ir .......... 2x4, 16 ft. N o. 1 S1S1E f. o. b. S e a ttle .. . Douglas F i r . . . . . .12x12 Tim bers f. o. b. Seattle...................... 11923 crop opening. Unit Oct. 5.1923 One Month Ago One Y ear Ago 148.8 154.0 151.5 150.0 145.4 153.0 163.4 $10.30 100 lbs. 7.10 100 lbs. 12.90 100 lbs. 7.70 100 lbs. 1 .0 7 ^ -1 .0 8 # bu. 1.40-1.60 cental cental 5.50 161.6 $10.40 7.15 12.95 8.45 1.0 6-1.07 # 1.50-1.70 5.75 28.25-28.50* 74.88* 24.50-25.50* 76.46* lb. lb. bbl. lb. box box box lb. lb. lb. lb. doz. doz. doz. 100 lbs. lb. doz. lb. lb. oz. lb. bbl. M ft. M ft. 7.04 9.40* 7.04 8.00* 1.35-1.50 3.50-4.00 6.25-6.75 1.40-1.50 3.50-4.00 7.75-8.25 osy4-.o sy 2 09y2-.093A io y4-.io y 2 •o ?y 2-.o7y4 to w 2.60 2.25 2.40 2.79 .4 9 # .58 .1 3 * 7.10* .6 3 ^ 6.25-6.30* 1.04 19.50 25.00 .0 8 ^ -0 8 ^ 4 09y2-.09y4 .08 2.60 2.25 2.35 2.74 .49 .49 .1334 7.00* .6334 6.55-6.60* 1.04 19.50 25.00 155.6 $10.65 6.20 13.80 8.95 1 .0 6 ^ -1 .0 8 1.40-1.50 4.75 20.00-20.50* 72.61* 7.41 6.80* 1.25-1.30 10.00-11.00 8.00-9.00 .09 y2 .22y2-.23y2 .ll3/4-.12 .10 3.25 2.60 2.85 2.31 .54 .60 # .14 6.625* .6 9 3 /s 6.70* 1.95 20.50 20.00 152 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS October 14, 1922. The sharp advance of cotton the increased production was used in meeting prices which carried middling upland cotton on a strong export demand, which included ab the New Orleans spot market to 28$4 cents normal flour purchases for relief work in Japan, per pound on September 18th was followed and the remainder was placed in storage. Do by a period of price uncertainty during which mestic demand continued relatively inactive. the general tendency was downward. On Millers’ stocks of new crop wheat, at 2,328,October 13, 1923, this grade of cotton was 000 bushels on October 1, 1923, are approxi quoted at 28.38 cents per pound, as compared mately the same as one year ago. Figures of with 21.13 cents per pound on October 13, output and stocks for sixteen milling com 1922. Sugar prices continued upward during panies for which a continuous record is kept September, the quotation for granulated beet are given in the following table: sugar in the San Francisco market advancing Sept., 1923 A u g., 1923 Sept., 1922 538,982 550,505 from $8.00 per 100 pounds on September 4th O u t p u t .................. (bbls.) 739,115 397,391 377,269 to $9.40 per 100 pounds on September 28th, at Stocks of Flour* (bbls.) 477,386 which price it is now (October 16th) being Stocks of W h eat* (bu.) 2,328,044 1,460,100 2,384,714 sold. Although wool is still selling at slightly * A s o f the first day o f the following month. higher prices than those quoted a year ago, the steady decline noted during recent months con tinued in September. The average of 98 wool quotations on the Boston market, at 74.88 cents per pound on October 7th, was approximately 1Yz cents lower than one month ago, and about 2 cents higher than one year ago. Grapes and apples are the only fresh decid uous fruits now being marketed in quantity. Prices for the former have been generally satis T H O U S A N D B A R R E X S factory to growers during recent weeks, but 9oor the apple market has been dull and returns to # / growers relatively low. The strength in the 700 / ST C C K S O F F L O U R / * V» 9 /“ canned fruit market, noted last month, has con 500 L / y -V 1 \ V % % tinued and while no further price advances J V have been announced, several lines of goods 300 O U T P U T 01 • F L O U fl have been withdrawn from sale by the largest IOO factor in the trade. Present prices on the prin Th i TT t_L 0 cipal varieties of canned fruits are from 10 to 1 923 1922 20 per cent below those of a year ago. Dried Monthly Flour Output, and Stocks o< W heat and Flour at End of Month of 16 Reporting Milling Companies fruits are now selling at prices 15 to 60 per Production of 45 flour mills reporting through cent below those named in September, 1922. A decline in copper prices to the lowest levels sectional millers’ associations of this district reached this year was the outstanding feature was 37.8 per cent greater during September, of the non-ferrous metal market during Sep 1923, than production of 44 mills reporting dur tember. The market for other metals was not ing August, 1923, and 39.5 per cent greater active, but quotations for lead and silver ad than production of 48 mills reporting during vanced slightly. Lumber prices generally re September, 1922. The largest increase in vol ume of production was reported from Pacific mained at their August level. Northwestern states. Figures follow: Milling Greater than seasonal increases in milling activity was reported from many sections of the district during September. Output of six teen principal milling companies which report to this bank regularly was 739,115 barrels, a figure 51,000 barrels or 7.4 per cent larger than that reported in the former record month of October, 1922, and considerably in excess of any previous month since records were first kept in August, 1920. Output during Septem ber, 1923, was 37.1 per cent greater than dur ing August, 1923, and 34.2 per cent greater than during September, 1922. A large part of N o . of M ills Reporting Sept,, Aug., 1923 1923 Sept., 1923 (barrels) Output Aug., 1923 (barrels) Sept., 1922 (bárrele) California . . . . 10 3 Idaho ............ Oregon . 14 W ashington . 18 10 3 15 16 375,659 16,446 229,315 496,173 372,653 12,212 82,558 343,426 285,563 7,863 139,615 368,034 District . . , . 45 44 1,117,593 810,849 801,075 Lumber Production of lumber during September pro ceeded at approximately the same high levels as in immediately preceding months, and was 20 per cent greater than during the same month a year ago. The volume of shipments 153 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO and of new orders received increased markedly during the month, exceeding the August fig ures by 5.6 and 14.5 per cent, respectively. A l though figures for the whole month of Septem ber show an excess of production over orders received, examination of weekly reports indi cates that this situation has recently been re versed, demand having been greater than cur rent output during the last week of September and the first weeks of October. Figures show ing the activity of approximately 200 reporting mills follow (000 omitted) : Sept., 1923 (board feet) Aug., 1923 (board feet) 663,054 582,551 610,722 427,033 664,864 551,355 533,327 400,964 Production ...................... S h ip m e n ts ......................... Orders ............................... Unfilled O rd ers............... Sept., 1922 (board feet) 550,832 466,940 434,365 410,410 M IL L IO N S O F BO A RD F E E T Lumber Production, Orders Received, and Shipments in Twelfth Federal Reserve District as Reported by Four Lumber Associations. 1922-1923 There was a noticeable increase in activity in domestic lumber markets during the past month. Dealers in California, on the Atlantic Seaboard, and in the Middle W est all increased their purchases of lumber from this district. This improvement in market conditions is at tributed by commercial observers to the con tinued heavy demand for lumber in the build ing industry, accelerated in California by the desire of purchasers to fill their requirements for the immediate future before possible changes in the market resulting from Japanese demands for lumber become effective. Measures taken by district exporters to pre vent undue speculation in lumber following the recent disaster in Japan (which included the withdrawal from the market of one of the principal factors in the trade) curtailed ex port shipments during September. Normal trading was resumed during the last week of the month, however, and the volume of orders accepted in that brief period was greater by 55.3 per cent than those received during the whole month of August. In addition to Japan the principal export markets for lumber prod ucts of the district were Australia, China, and the countries on the W est Coast of South America. Emergency changes in the tariff laws of Japan permit the importation of milled lumber into that country duty free, and Japan ese importers are now buying American “standard sizes” in addition to unsawed lum ber and “Japanese squares” previously pur chased here. Mining National output of the principal non-ferrous metals changed but little during September. Some copper properties were closed down and one of the principal zinc-lead mines in Idaho suspended operations, but resulting declines in production in the affected districts were offset by the enlarged output at other mines where operating efficiency increased. Unfavor able factors in the situation were largely con cerned with marketing problems, recently re ported labor shortages generally having dis appeared, and low cost producers of nearly all metals are operating near capacity. Mines with high production costs are in some cases finding it necessary to shut down or to con tinue operations at a loss in order to maintain their working organization intact. The final figures of national metal production for Sep tember, 1923, are not yet available. The fig ures for August, 1923, July, 1923, and August, 1922, follow : Copper (lbs.) Aug., 1923 July, 1923 A u g.. 1922 (mine production) 129,377,401 125,249,347 100,838,000 Silver (oz.) (commercial bars) 5,292,607 5,406,000 5,561,523 Zinc (tons) (slab) ..................... 41,625 43,065 31,423 Figures for lead are not available. Production of gold in California has con tinued at normal levels in recent months ac cording to reports from mining districts. The principal feature of the metal market during September was the continued decline in copper prices, that metal selling at 13 cents per pound at the close of the month, the lowest level reached this year. Both the domestic and foreign demand for copper was light dur ing the month. Monthly average prices of lead and zinc were higher for September than for August, the market for lead having been par ticularly strong. Average prices paid for cop per, lead, silver, zinc, and quicksilver during September, 1923, August, 1923, and September, 1922, follow. /--------- Average Prices---------------- * ~ /1t_ . Sept., 1923 (cents) Copper (lb.) New Y ork Electrolytic.. 13.32 Lead (lb.) New Y ork .......................... 6.85 Silver (oz.) New Y o r k .......................... 64.20 Zinc (lb.) St. L o u i s ............................. 6.44 Quicksilver (dollars per flask) San Francisco___ 61.34 Aug., 1923 (cents) Sept.. 1922 (cents) 13.82 13.74 6.58 6.11 62.79 69.51 6.32 6.55 64.68 57.68 154 M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS A recent inquiry into the quicksilver (mer cury) industry made by this bank reveals that approximately three-fourths of the quicksilver produced in the United States comes from the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, California being the principal producing state, with small amounts produced in Nevada and Oregon. During the past two years the district output of the metal has been greatly curtailed, amounting to 3,772 flasks (75 pounds each) in 1922 and 3,055 flasks in 1921, compared with a pre-war average normal production of ap proximately 16,000 flasks per year. This marked decline in production was the result of a protracted period during which prices were below the domestic cost of production, which is now estimated at between $50 and $60 per flask. In 1921 the average price of quicksilver was $47.42 per flask and in 1922 it was $57.83 per flask. Prices during the past nine months have been steadily above $60 per flask and pro duction has increased rapidly. The figures of the district output (estimated) for August, 1923, July, 1923, and August, 1922, follow: August, 1923 July, 1923 August, 1922 (fla s k s ) (fla s k s ) (fla s k s ) 550 747 275 Petroleum Production and stored stocks of petroleum in California increased during September to record levels. Daily average production dur ing that month was 858,750 barrels, an increase of 0.7 per cent over average daily production during August, 1923 (852,903 barrels), and of 111.1 per cent over daily average production during September, 1922 (406,838 barrels). There were 93 new wells brought in during the month with an initial daily production of 139,960 barrels. There were 37 wells aban doned. W eekly reports covering early Octo ber operations indicate that production of oil has recently declined slightly from the high levels of September. Consumption of petroleum produced in Cali fornia averaged 779,657 barrels per day during September, 1923, an increase of 10 per cent over August, 1923, and 128.9 per cent over September, 1922. Average daily consumption, however, was still less than production, and stored stocks amounted to 85,496,607 barrels on October 1, 1923, an increase of 2.9 per cent over the 83,123,835 barrels stored on Septem ber 1, 1923, and of 52 per cent over the 56,259,301 barrels stored on October 1, 1922. Re ceipts of California oil at Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports declined from 211,741 barrels per day during August, 1923, to a daily average of 184,267 barrels during September, 1923. Prices for crude oil in California were reduced on October 9, 1923, the second reduction in the past three months. New prices ranged from 60 cents per barrel for oil of 14 to 19.9 degrees gravity to 76 cents per barrel for oil of 35 or more degrees gravity. The reduction in the latter grade is from $1.04 per barrel, the price which has obtained since August 1, 1923. It is reported that shipments of crude oil to east coast ports increased to their former large proportions following the price reduction of October 9th. M IL L IO N S 200 100 80 60 40 20 10 5 I TTT~^i P7T7~7 T^TTT T P^TTT^i r^TPTT"-^ 71 1922 1923 C A L IF O R N IA Production, Shipments, and Stored Stocks of Petroleum, and Refinery Stored Stocks of Gasolene, 1922-1923 Although refinery output of gasolene in Cal ifornia declined during August, 1923, as com pared with July, 1923, there was an even greater decline in consumption resulting in an increase in stocks from 136,585,654 gallons on August 1, 1923, to 153,605,104 gallons on Sep tember 1, 1923. The latter figure is the highest ever reported to this bank, and exceeds the previous record figure of 147,125,960 gallons held on June 1, 1923, by 4.4 per cent. Stocks were 247.7 per cent greater on September 1, 1923, than on September 1, 1922. On October 1, 1923, the California State gasolene tax of two cents per gallon became effective and was added to the service station price of the prod uct, which is now 16 cents per gallon in the San Francisco Bay region. Electric Energy Sales of electric energy for industrial pur poses reported by 20 principal power com panies indicate that industrial activity was maintained during August at approximately the same level as in the previous month, a level but slightly below that of the first six months of the year (seasonal influences eliminated). Reported sales during August, 1923, were 14.2 per cent greater than during August, 1922, all 155 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO industries for which figures are available using power in excess of their purchases a year ago. Percentage comparisons of sales by certain in dustries and by sections of the district are pre sented in the following table : Percentage Increase or Decrease (—) August, 1923, compared with August, 1922 Total AgriculM anu- Industrial ture Mining facturing Sales California .................... Pacific Northwest ... Intermountain States Tw elfth D is t r ic t ____ 2.3 — 16.3 — 6.8 1.3 0.4 19.8 8.6 22.1 98.4 — 3.5 14.1 19.8 13.4 10.5 21.9 14.2 Compared with July, 1923, the figures for August showed an increase of 6.8 per cent in total sales, a normal seasonal movement. Figures showing number of industrial con sumers and industrial sales of reporting com panies during August, 1923, and 1922, follow: Number of Industrial Consumers Aug., Aug., 1923 1922 California ................... 73,170 52,908 Pacific Northwest . . 12,314 10,871 Intermountain States 5,456* 7,881* Tw elfth District . . . . 90,940 71,660 Industrial Sales R .W . H . Aug., A ug., 1923 1922 278,971,322 245,829,604 82,145,882 74,320,462 70,522,293 57,833,510 431,639,49 7 377,983,576 *Due to a change in the statistical method of one reporting com pany these figures are not comparable. Employment Full employment of labor in practically all sections of the district was reported for Sep tember. The demand for agricultural workers, although generally declining, has continued in several areas where late harvesting operations have been in progress, and in the apple or chards of the Pacific Northwest and the cotton fields of Arizona some difficulty has been ex perienced in securing an adequate number of harvest hands. Men released from seasonal agricultural work, where harvesting has been completed, have generally been able to find employment in other industries. In the lumber camps of the Pacific North west the number of men employed has in creased slightly during the past month, re ported figures for identical plants showing 83,700 men on the payrolls on October 1, 1923, compared with 83,000 on September 1, 1923. In the mining districts skilled miners have continued in active demand and fully employed, except in a few cases where the closing of a mine has created a temporary local surplus of workers. Shipping activity on the Pacific Coast has increased, and a growing number of long shoremen are finding steady employment. A slight seasonal decline in actual building construction has been noted in several cities during the past month, but no large surplus of building trades workers has been reported. In one or two cities of California carpenters and plumbers have been temporarily out of work in the recent past, but bricklayers, plas terers, and tile setters have been fully employed in most sections. An inquiry into wages in the building trades conducted during September indicates that there has been little change in rates of pay during the past year. The following table shows in a general way the average daily wages paid certain classes of workers in the district during September, 1923 , and 19 22 . Sept., 1923 Sept., 1922 Carpenters........................... $8.00 Brick Masons...................... 10.00-12.00 Tile Setters......................... 8.00-10.00 Plasterers ............................ 10.00 Sheet Metal Workers_____ 8.00-8.50 $7.00-8.00 10.00-12.00 8.00-10.00 10.00 8.00 Employment in manufacturing industries in the four principal cities of the district increased during September, excepting in Portland, ac cording to reports of the United States Depart ment of Labor. The following figures based on reports of 4 0 firms employing 501 or more men give a comparison of employment conditions in manufacturing industries during September, 1923, and 1922: PerCeot Number of Firms Los Angeles........ Portland............. San Francisco___ Seattle ................ Increase Sept., Number of Men on Payroll 1923, over Sept., 1923 Sept., 1922 Sept., 1922 16 8 10 6 34,066 9,123 8,067 2,433 28,092 7,289 6,817 2,311 21.3 25.2 18.3 5.3 Automobile Registrations Sales of new automobiles, as evidenced by the number of new cars registered during August, continued greatly in excess of a year ago. In four states for which comparable data are available there were 3 7 .9 per cent more new passenger cars and 2 2 .3 per cent more new commercial vehicles registered during August, 19 2 3 , than during August, 1922 . During the first eight months of 19 23 , as compared with the same period in 1 9 22 , there was an increase of 7 1 .7 per cent in registrations of new pas senger cars in these states and registrations of new trucks increased by 3 8 .2 per cent. Fig ures showing registrations of new automobiles in the states of this district (except Nevada, for which figures are not available) for the first eight months of 19 23 and 1 9 2 2 are presented in the following table: Total New Passenger C ars Registered Jan. 1 to Sept. 1 1923 1922 Arizona .............. California ............. Idaho ..................... O r e g o n .................. U t a h ........................ W ashington ........ 6,918 152,403 6,676 24,880 8,504 30,006t Total (4 States) 190,877 3,016 93,250 3,337 11,593 * 11,990 111,196 *Not available. fTo August 1st only. Total New Commercia Cars Registered Jan. 1 to Sept. 1 1923 1922 599 168 16,372 11,815 446 321 1,087 1,083 779 * 3,002f * 18,504 13,387 156 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Total registrations of old and new automo biles in six states of the district (figures for Nevada are not available) to October 1, 1923. numbered 1,566,998, an increase of 28.1 per cent over the cars registered in the same period in 1922. Preliminary figures compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago show a slight season al decline in national production of automobiles during September as compared with August, but nevertheless September output exceeded that reported for July, 1923, and was over 50 per cent greater than production during Sep tember, 1922. The figures follow : Sept., 1923 Passenger C a r s ........... T r u c k s ............................. T otal ............. 1923 Sept.. 1922 298,600 27,841 313,972 29,882 187,456 18,830 326,441 343,854 206,286 A u g ., Retail Trade OF D O L L A R S ------- r O v sv ' 1 I / A \ V S / /à ' - . .* / ._ /l9 2 2 \ ........... X "\ / N / V 7 1 t 1 « i l i T 1 .. ! 1 t I I 1 N 1923 N r / lows . Percentage increase or decrease (— ) in value of sales Sept., 1923, compared with N o. of Sept., A u g., Stores 1922 1923 Los A n g e le s......... 6 Oakland ................ 4 Salt Lake C i t y . . . 4 San Francisco___ 10 Seattle ................... 5 Spokane ................ 5 D is t r ic t * ........... 35 Sales of 35 department stores in seven cities of this district were 10.9 per cent greater in value during September, 1923, than during September, 1922, and trade was maintained at the relatively high levels which have prevailed throughout the year. There was a decline in M IL L IO N S value of stocks held by these stores a year ago. The average annual rate of stock turnover in dicated by figures of sales and stocks for Sep tember, 1923, was 2.60 compared with a rate of 2.88 for August, 1923, and 2.67 for Septem ber, 1922. A detailed statement of the percentage changes in the value of sales and stocks of re porting department stores in this district fol 1 24.7 5.0 1.8 6.2 0.3 1.6 — 18.0 — 0.1 19.9 — 5.3 6.1 15.6 26.5 10.4 — 2.5 11.2 7.3 .0 6.7 8.3 7.9 4.0 4.9 1.8 10.9 — 7.0 13.3 5.6 ^Figures for one store included in district figures, but not included in figures for cities shown above. Wholesale Trade All reporting wholesale lines excepting auto mobile tires and dry goods showed increases in value of sales as compared with September, 1922, and sales of dry goods were approximate ly the same as one year ago. A s general prices SEPTEMBER P R IC E S 1 9 2 2 * 10096=SEPTEM8ER Î9 2 2 S A L E S 1 1 1 1 1 1 t t 1 1 Percentage increase or decrease (— ) in value of stocks Sept., 1923, compared with Sept., A u g., 1922 1923 U.S.BUREAU OF LABOR INDEX NO. WHOLESALE PRICES AGRICULTURAL IMPLEMENTS AUTOMOBILE SUPPLIES 1 N et Sales of 31 Department Stores in Twelfth Federal Reserve District (in M illion s o f D ollars) sales during September, 1923, as compared with August, 1923, amounting to 7.0 per cent, due entirely to a seasonal decline in the vol ume of sales in California cities resulting from the merchandising policy of the reporting stores rather than from outside influences. Other cities of the district reported increased sales during September as compared with August. Stocks of goods held by reporting stores in creased 5.6 per cent in value during September as further shipments purchased for the fall and winter trade reached retail stock rooms. The value of stocks (selling price) held on Octo ber 1, 1923, was 13.3 per cent greater than the STATIONERY 20 40 60 60 100 120 140 160 Dollar Value of Sales of Representative Wholesale Firms and General Wholesale Prices in September, 1923, compared with September, 1922 during the year have not changed appreciably it is apparent that the volume of goods being distributed at wholesale is somewhat larger now than it was in the autumn of 1922 when trade was active and expanding in volume. Collections during the past three months have been reported as follow s: Number of Firms Reporting Collections as Excellent Good Fair Poor July, August, September, 1923.................. 5 1923.................. 5 1923.................. 2 43 48 47 75 79 72 8 7 4 157 FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T A T SAN FRANCISCO Percentage increases or decreases (— ) in the value of September sales of all reporting firms in each line of business are presented in the following table: Nine Month, Number of Firms Agricultural Implements Autom obile Supplies___ Autom obile T ir e s........... D r u g s .................................... D ry Goods ......................... Electrical E q u ip m e n t... Furniture ............................ Groceries ........................... Hardware ........................... Shoes .................................... Stationery ........................... 23 19 18 9 14 6 17 29 21 13 29 Ending Sept., 30, Sept.. 1923. 1923, corncompared with pared with Sept., Aug., same period 1922 1923 in 1922 8.0 19.9 — 10.7 15.2 .0 7.9 6.0 11.5 6.8 7.7 4.7 — 20.4 — 1.2 — 20.7 2.3 — 6.6 11.3 9.9 10.7 — 2.1 7.7 — 1.3 ment is contained in reports received which show that the demand for some classes of building trades workers has declined. The United States Department of Labor in dex number of building materials prices stood at 182 in September. This is 2.1 per cent lower 11.3 26.5 10.2 15.0 15.6 31.8 24.8 12.1 23.8 13.0 12.8 Building Activity There was a decline in the number and value of building permits issued during September as compared with the record month of August, but the volume of construction authorized ex ceeded that authorized in September, 1922, both in number and value of permits issued, and if the number of permits alone be con sidered, the September, 1923, figures were greater than those reported in any previous month except March, April, and August, 1923. Percentage Increase or Decrease (— ) in the Number and Value of Building Permits issued in 20 Cities Sept., 1923, compared with Sept.. 1922 Aug., 1923 Number of Permits Issu ed ................ 11.25 Value of Permits Issued..................... 28.6 — 4.7 — 23.8 It has been reported that there was a slight seasonal decline in the amount of building actually in progress during late September and early October. Some verification of this state- (B) Building Permits— September, 1923September, 1922 N o. Value N o. Berkeley . . . . . 244 B o i s e ................ 81 Fresno ............ 149 L o n g B ea c h .. 380 L o s A n g e le s .. 5,268 Oakland . . . . . 1,037 O g d e n ........... .. 34 Pasadena . . . . 471 Phoenix . . . . . . 71 P o r tla n d ......... 1,428 Reno ................ 12 Sacramento . . 303 Salt Lake City 117 San D i e g o . . . . 422 San Francisco. 648 San J ose.......... 108 S e a t t le ............. 907 Spokane ......... 252 Stockton ........ I ll Tacom a . . . . . . 519 D istrict . . . . 1 2 , 5 6 2 $ 765,160 110,069 296,659 1,409,462 14,099,353 2,147,296 267,300 1,061,338 127,323 2,378,060 16,400 429,998 953,775 1,306,260 2,907,389 184,685 1,403,825 158,410 316,615 507,690 237 84 193 314 4,275 868 33 395 55 1,411 17 236 129 478 661 82 1,008 312 117 386 $30,847,067 11,291 Value $ 471,400 39,353 491,130 1,317,438 10,267,894 1,789,439 48,308 788,439 79,601 1,534,005 176,950 338,560 330,800 861,980 2,951,858 124,755 1,345,820 283,680 148,936 585,710 $23,976,056 Building Permits Issued in 20 Principal Cities, Twelfth Federal Reserve District. 1922-1923 than a month ago, 1.1 per cent higher than one year ago and 10.8 per cent below the peak of April, 1923. Business Failures Business failures in this district during Sep tember, 1923, numbered 124, a decrease of 20 per cent from the number of failures reported for August, 1923. Liabilities involved in Sep tember failures were 12.4 per cent below August figures and were less than in any month since February, 1921. Compared with September, 1922, the number and liabilities of LIA BILITIES IN M ILLIO N S NO. OF F A IL U R E S Business Failures, Twelfth Federal Reserve District, 1922-1923 business failures in September, 1923, declined 2.4 per cent and 25.4 per cent, respectively. The average liabilities of business failures in this district during September, 1923, amounted to $12,467 compared with $11,379 in August, 1923, and $16,322 in September, 1922. R. G. Dun and Company’s figures of the number and liabilities of business failures in 158 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS the states of this district during September, 1923, and August, 1923, follow: September, 1923 N o. Liabilities August, 1923^ ' No. Liabilities 2 $ 133,833 1,000 Arizona ................... C a lifo rn ia ................ Idaho ........................ Nevada .................... O r e g o n .................... Utah ......................... W ashington .......... 1 50 10 1 20 11 31 580,662 70,227 500 198,932 221,530 473,099 25 14 46 685,078 25,739 17,897 135,043 233,119 533,073 D is t r i c t ................ 124 $1,545,950 155 $1,763,782 62 4 2 Bank Debits Figures of bank debits for the four weeks ending October 3, 1923 (presented in Table “ C” ), when compared with figures for the four M I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S weeks ending August 29, 1923, show an in crease of 16.3 per cent. If figures for the whole month of September be computed, however, and then be compared with figures for the month of August, making due allowance for normal seasonal variations, it is found that there was a marked decline in debits to indi vidual accounts during the later month. A similar decline has been noted in each month since May, 1923. Insofar as these figures re flect changes in the total volume of business transacted in the district they indicate clearly that trade has not been as active in recent months as in the earlier months of the year, and that the decline was still in progress dur ing September. A statistical comparison of debits to indi vidual accounts at 21 clearing house centers during September, 1923, and September, 1922, is presented in the following table: Reported for Four W eeks Ending O ct. 3, O ct. 4, 1923 1922 $2,415,156 $2,053,532 Estimated Figures Estimated for Seasonal Variations Month of Eliminated Sept., Sept., Sept., Sept., 1923 1922 1923 1922 $2,385,524 $2,160,526 $2,335,000 $2,116,000 Savings Accounts The amount of all savings deposits in 74 banks in seven principal cities of the district increased from $936,938,000 on August 31, MILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 1000 1 0TAL- 500 400 300 Debits to Individual Accounts in 20 Principal Cities, Twelfth Federal Reserve District. 1922-1923 ( C ) B a n k D e b i t s * Four weeks ending Oct. 3.1923 B e r k e le y ...........................................$ 14,536 Boise ................................................. 12,167 Fresno .............................................. 56,113 Long B each..................................... 58,815 L os A n g ele s.................................... 678,909 Oakland ........................................... 117,847 Ogden .............................................. 24,296 Pasadena ........................................ 27,170 Phoenix ........................................... 17,470 Portland .......................................... 164,333 Reno ................................................. 10,427 Sacramento .................................... 37,478 Salt Lake C ity ............................... 58,291 San D ie g o ......................................... 39,986 San Francisco................................. 779,756 San J ose............................................ 20,982 Seattle .............................................. 170,383 Spokane ........................................... 49,493 Stockton .......................................... 26,635 Tacoma ............................................ 38,688 Yakima ............................................ 11,381 Total ............................................. $2,415,156 *000 omitted. Four weeks ending O ct. 4.1922 16,414 11,901 54,136 36,267 494,423 87,022 18,781 21,922 14,913 144,694 10,579 67,194 53,677 33,473 709,602 21,096 150,829 40,829 20,562 35,004 10,214 $2,053,532 200 100 $ SEATTLE 50 40 30 20 SPOKANE 10 1922 9923 Savings Accounts in Banks in Seven Principal Cities of the Twelfth Federal Reserve District. 1922-1923 1923, to $948,946,000 on September 30, 1923, a gain of 1.2 per cent. All reporting cities par ticipated in the increase. Compared with Sep tember, 1922, the district figures for Septem ber, 1923, show an increase of 15.8 per cent. 159 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T SAN FRANCISCO Los Angeles and Seattle continue to report the largest percentage increases for the year period, amounting to 22.7 per cent for the for mer city and 22.3 per cent for the latter. De tailed changes in the amount of savings de posits since one month ago and one year ago as reported by the 74 banks follow: Number of Reporting Banks Los A n g ele s......................... 13 7 Oakland* ............................. Portland .............................. 9 Salt Lake C ity.................... 8 San Francisco.................... 15f Seattle ................................... 16 Spokane ............................... 6 Total .................................. 74$ Per Cent Increase Sept., 1923. compared with Sept., 1922 Aug., 1923 22.7 14.2 15.0 12.4 10.5 22.3 17.5 15.8 1.2 .3 .5 3.8 1.2 2.6 1.7 1.2 *Includes one bank in Berkeley which was formerly a branch of an Oakland bank. fT w o reporting banks have consolidated. $The consolidation of two reporting banks has reduced their num ber by one, but has not affected the value of reported figures for comparative purposes. Banking and Credit Situation Total loans of 66 reporting member banks in the principal cities of the district increased from $992,000,000 on September 5th to $1,008,M I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 400 300 100 1922 1923 Total Deposits, Loans and Discounts, Investments, and Bills Payable and Rediscounts of Reporting Member Banks 000,000 on September 19th, a new high point this year for the banks now reporting, and then declined to $1,000,000,000 on October 10th, making a net increase during the five weeks of $8,000,000. During the same period invest ments of these banks increased $4,000,000, total deposits increased $26,000,000, and borrowings from the Federal Reserve bank decreased $9,000,000. Since July 18th, when they were at the mid summer low point, loans of reporting member banks have increased $22,000,000, or 2.2 per cent. During the corresponding period in 1922 loans increased 2.7 per cent. These and other figures are presented in the following table re ferring to reporting member banks (in mil lions of dollars): Midsummer Low 1923 1922 Loans .......................................... Investments ............................. Total D e p o s i t s .................... .... Borrowings from Reserve Bank ........................................ 978 864 353 325 1,284 1,180 54 9 Middle of O ct., 1923 1922 1,000 887 350 338 1,303 1,225 53 6 It appears that, so far as trends in banking are concerned, the principal differences bej tween the present season and that of a year ago are that investments are not increasing this year and that deposits are increasing at a less rapid rate than last year. Total discounts of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco declined from $91,000,000 on September 5th, when they were at the highest point reached since November, 1921, to $71,000,000 on October 17th. That this decline of $20,000,000, or 22.1 per cent, was of a seasonal character is suggested by the fact that during the corresponding period in 1922, total dis counts declined $9,000,000, or 19.4 per cent. This is the season of the year during which country banks, as a result of the inflow of funds from the sale of farm products, are reducing their borrowings with city correspondents and at the Reserve bank. Total investments of the Federal Reserve bank reached a new low point on October 17th, and as a result of the decline both of discounts and investments, total earn ing assets of $92,000,000 on October 17th were the smallest reported since March, 1922. A c companying the decline in earning assets there has been an increase in total reserves, which rose to $297,000,000 on October 17th, the high est figure reached in the history of this bank, exceeding slightly the previous peak figure re ported on March 1, 1922. Federal Reserve notes in circulation increased slightly during the five weeks ended October 17th. No changes in interest rates at New York City were reported during the second half of September and the first half of October, the rate on time money remaining at S y 2 per cent and the rate on prime commercial paper at 5% 160 M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS per cent. During the same period in 1922 these rates advanced % and % of 1 per cent, respect ively. Average rates charged by large San Francisco banks on prime loans to customer borrowers continued during September at S T /2 M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS per cent on 30-90 days paper and 5 y 2 to 6 per cent on 4-6 months’ paper. Conditions in the acceptance market have changed little during recent weeks. City banks have generally remained out of the market, but country banks, placed in funds by the market ing of the district’s crops, have purchased bills more freely than for some time past. Reports received by this bank from 35 of the princi pal accepting banks of the district show the following changes in the amount of bills pur chased and accepted during September, 1923, compared with August, 1923, and September, 1922: September, 1923, compared with Aug.. 1923 Sept.. 1922 Am ount of bills accepted ------ — 13.0% Am ount of bills bought .......... — 39.5% Am ount of bills held at close of — 24.6% month ........................................ Total Reserves, Federal Reserve Note Circulation, Bills Discounted, and Investments. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco — 27.6% — 62.6% — 36.1% The principal commodities upon which these acceptances were based were lumber, coffee, grain, canned goods, and shelled peanuts. PRINCIPAL RESOURCE AND LIABILITY ITEMS OF REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN RESERVE CITIES IN TWELFTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT October 10,1923 September 5, 1923 .......................................................................... 65* Loans and Discounts (including rediscounts)........................................ $1,000,326,000 Investments ............................................................................................................ 350,294,000 Cash in Vault and with Federal Reserve B ank.................................... 121,697,000 Total Deposits ........................................................ .............................................. 1,303,080,000 Bills Payable and Rediscounts with Federal Reserve B ank_____ 52,995,000 66* 66* $ 992,315,000 346,191,000 122,111,000 1,276,789,000 61,638,000 $ 883,801,000 338,398,000 112,217,000 1,225,536,000 6,381,000 N u m b e r o f R e p o r t in g B a n k s October 11,1922 *D ue to changes in the composition o f the list o f reporting banks, current figures are not exactly comparable with those of a year ago. COMPARATIVE STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO AT CLOSE OF BUSINESS, OCTOBER 17, 1923 RESOURCES October 17,1923 September 12. 1923 October 18. 1922 Total Reserves .................................................................................................... Bills Discounted ................................................................................................ Bills Bought in Open M a rk et..................................................................... United States Government Securities...................................................... $296,789,000 71.217.000 11.394.000 9,185,000 $277,464,000 89.440.000 9,185,000 $243,081,000 36.580.000 42.661.000 51.407.000 Total Earning A s s e ts .................................................................................... A ll Other R esources*..................................................................................... .$ 91,796,000 , 69,305,000 $110,637,000 61,175,000 $130,648,000 54,918,000 $457,890,000 $449,276,000 $428,647,000 L IA B IL IT IE S Capital and Surplus............................................................................................ $ 23,018,000 Total Deposits .................................................................................................... . 163,707,000 220,519,000 Federal Reserve Notes in Actual Circulation...................................... 50,646,000 A ll Other L iab ilities!....................................................................................... $ 23,034,000 160.003.000 218.676.000 47,563,000 $ 22,802,000 138.433.000 223.519.000 43,893,000 ............................................................................................ $457,890,000 $449,276,000 $428,647,000 ^Includes “ Uncollected Item s” ..................................................................... flncludes “ Deferred Availability Item s” ............................................... 54.031.000 48.472.000 47.719.000 45.554.000 48.494.000 40.388.000 Total R e s o u r c e s ............................................................................................. Total Liabilities 12.0 1 2 .0 0 0 A substantial, black, cloth-covered, three-ring binder, large enough to contain one year’s (12) issues of this review, will be mailed prepaid to any address on our mailing list upon receipt of one dollar to cover actual costs.
@FedFRASER