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MONTHLY REVIEW OF B U S IN E S S C O N D IT IO N S JOHN PERRIN, Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vol. IX San Francisco, California, November 20, 1925 No. 11 S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S Industrial activity and the volume of whole sale and retail trade increased in October. W holesale prices declined somewhat to the level prevailing at mid-year. Production. The Federal Reserve Board's index of production of basic industries, which makes allowance for seasonal changes, rose by about 4 per cent in October, reflecting increases in the output of most of the 22 commodities included in the index. Particularly large in creases in activity were shown for the iron and steel and textile industries, and the out put of bituminous coal and of lumber was in large volume. Production of automobiles in O ctober was the largest on record. Payrolls at factories, including industries not covered by the production index, increased in O ctober to the highest level since early 1924. The value of building contracts awarded de clined further in October, contrary to the usual seasonal tendency in building activity between September and October, but the total was conPER CENT 19 2 2 siderably larger than in the corresponding month of any other year. Estimates by the Department of Agriculture in November indicate a corn crop of 3,013,000,000 bushels and a cotton crop of 15,298,000 bales, compared with 2,437,000,000 bushels and 13,628,000 bales in 1924. Marketing of crops was seasonally larger in October than in Sep tember, but averaged nearly ten per cent less than a year ago. Trade. W holesale trade, according to the Federal Reserve Board's combined index of sales in six leading lines, reached a seasonal peak in October and was in larger volume than for any month of the past five years. Sales at department stores and mail order houses, owing partly to favorable weather conditions, showed considerably more than the usual increase in October and were the largest on record for that month. Stocks of dry goods, shoes, and hardware at wholesale firms were smaller at the end of October than on September 30th, PER CENT 19 2 3 19 2 4 19 2 5 P R O D U C T IO N IN B A S IC IN D U S T R IE S In dex o f 22 basic com m od ities corrected io r seasonal variation (1919 = 100). Latest figure, O cto b e r, 116. W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S In d ex of U . S. Bureau o f L a b o r Statistics (1 9 1 3 = 100, base adopted by B u rea u ). Latest figure, O cto b e r, 158. T h o s e d e s i r i n g t h i s r e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u l a r ly w il l r e c e i v e it w i t h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p lic a t i o n . 82 November, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS but stocks of groceries were larger. Merchan dise stocks at department stores showed slightly more than the usual increase in O c tober and were somewhat larger than at the end of O ctober a year ago. Freight car loadings reached a seasonal peak in October and totaled more than in any pre vious month, notwithstanding reduced ship ments of anthracite and of grains and grain products. loans on November 11th were about $1,000,000,000 larger than at the opening of the present year. Demand deposits increased further dur ing October and early N ovember to a level near the high point of last January. A t the reserve banks» total bills and securities were in the largest volume for the year in N ovember and about $200,000,000 larger than a year ago. Member bank borrowings declined somewhat from the high point reached early in October, PER CENT FA C TO R Y EM PLO YM EN T AN D PAYROLLS In d exes fo r 45 m anufacturing industries (1919 = 100). Latest figures, O cto b e r , em ploym ent, 97; payrolls, 111. Prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, in dex of wholesale prices, after remaining rela tively constant for three months, declined from 160 in September to 158 in October, reflecting declines in the prices of agricultural products, particularly grains, livestock, meats, cotton, and sugar. Since N ovem ber 1st, prices of grains, w ool, sugar, pig iron, and rubber have increased. Bank Credit. Between the middle of O cto ber and the middle of November, loans for commercial and industrial purposes at member banks in leading cities continued in a volume about $450,000,000 larger than at mid-summer. Loans on securities increased further and total M E M B E R B A N K C R E D IT W e e k ly figures for m em ber banks in 101 leading cities. figures, N o v e m b e r 11. Latest while acceptance holdings continued to increase and on November 18th were larger than at any previous time this year. The growth in reserve bank credit since mid-summer was chiefly in response to the seasonal increase of money in circulation, which on November 1st was about $180,000,000 larger than on August 1st. During the latter part of O ctober and early part of November, open market rates for com mercial paper and bankers’ acceptances re mained virtually unchanged at levels reached during the early autumn. Discount rates at the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and San Francisco were advanced from Zy2 to 4 per cent during November. T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S Statistical Summary— O ct., 1925 Sept., 1925 O ct., 1924 Sept., 1924 Bank Debits— Index Num bersf— 20 cities........... 148 143 128 123 Building Permits— 20 cities........................................ :$32,335,188 $31,826,926 $31,652,458 $33,823,235 Retail Sales— 32 Stores— Index N u m b ersf........... 158 153 147 143 Lumber Production— 4 associations— board feet* 726,098 687,592 703,507 661,393 468,689 Flour Production— 16 companies— barrels........... 512,120 475,456 510,214 Reporting Member Bank Loans and Discounts||* $1,186,316 $1,150,086 $1,049,592 $1,022,020 Reporting Member Bank Deposits||*..................... $1,618,829 $1,586,821 $1,512,941 $1,447,102 $6,652 $13,181 Federal Reserve Bank D iscounts!!*......................... $50,308 $49,868 O c t ., 1925# com pared w ith O ct., S ept., 1925 1924 15.6 2.2 7.5 3.2 0.4 13.0 7.0 656.3 3.5 1.6 3.3 5.6 7.7 3.2 2.0 0.9 *In thousands. fAdjusted for seasonal variation— 1919 monthly average~100. ||November 10, October 7, 1925, and November 12, and October 8, 1924. ^November 18, October 14, 1925, and November 19, and October 15, 1924. #Percentage increase or decrease (— ). °Revised. November, 1925 83 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO Agricultural Activities W eather conditions have been favorable to agriculture over the larger part of the district throughout the harvesting season which is now drawing to a close. Preliminary estimates of 1925 crop production are in most cases larger than final estimates for 1924, and indicate a total agricultural output approximately equal to, or slightly greater than, the five-year (19191923) average. Figures for certain important crops follow : P R O D U C T IO N — G R A IN , F IE L D A N D O R C H A R D C R O P S N o v . 1,1925 Percentage changes from F ore5 -Y e a r Prelim inary 5 -Y e a r cast Final A v era ge Estim ate* Final Av erage* O c t .l, Estim ate 19191919N o v .l , Estim ate*' T w elfth 1925 1924 1923 1923 1925 1924 D istrict 0.0 + 4 6 .7 — 8.6 70,874 113,736 W h e a t ( b u . ) . .103,995 0.0 + 1 4 8 .7 + 2 1 .7 39,3 95 B a rle y ( b u . ) . . 47,930 19,270 0.0 + 3 4 .0 — 18.2 4,497 7,363 R ic e ( b u . ) . . . . 6,026 + 15.6 + 5 5 .4 + 9.6 3,630 B ea n s ( b u . ) f . . 5,642 5,147 + 7.7 + 2 0 . 4 + 8 2 .1 C o tto n ( b a l e s ) $ 224 186 123 P o t a t o e s ( b u .) 35,442 31,508 35,760 + 1.4 + 1 2 .5 — 0.9 S u g a r B eets + 17.3 — 11.3 (to n s) § . . . . 1,901 1,620 2,144 H o p s ( l b s . ) . . . 28,386 25,333 26,733 + 10.4 + 26.2 H a y ( t o n s ) . . . . 16,790 13,309 15,214 — 0.5 A p p le s 35,481 (b o x e s ) [| . . . 37,161 32,184 — 0.3 + 15.5 + 4.7 + 30.4 8,367 + 5.1 P ea rs ( b u .) . . . 10,027 7,690 + 19.8 — 2.9 180 R a is in s (ton s)II 200 206 O ra n g e s 19,025 0.0 — 20.3 + 0.9 ( b o x e s ) . . . 19,200° 24,100 *000 om itte d . f A r iz o n a , C a liforn ia, and I d a h o . $ A riz o n a an d id U ta h . ||Figures are fo r C a lifo rn ia , § C a lifo rn ia , I d a h o , C ro p fo r ye a r b e g in n in g c o m m e r c ia l c r o p . U C alifornia. N o v e m b e r 1. 1925, and e n d in g O c t o b e r 30, 1926, e stim a te d at 22,200,000 b o x e s . + 2.6 0.0 + 12.1 + 6.2 0.0 + 11.1 Late maturing crops generally have escaped damage from rain and cold weather, although low temperatures during O ctober and early November caused some loss of grapes in Cali fornia and potatoes in Idaho. Output of these crops compares favorably with the average of recent years, however, and market demand for them has been active. A ccording to the figures in the accompany ing table, 12.5 per cent more potatoes were produced in this district in 1925 than in 1924, this year’s production being but slightly less than the five-year average. Carlot shipments of potatoes from the states of the district dur ing the current shipping season to November 7, 1925, exceeded shipments during the same period in 1924 by 18.2 per cent. The 1925 potato crop of the United States is estimated to be 23.8 per cent smaller than the 1924 crop and 10.8 per cent smaller than the average crop for the five years 1919-1923. Total shipments of potatoes in the United States, to November 7th of the present season, were 5.6 per cent less than in the same period one year ago. P R O D U C T IO N A N D S H IP M E N T S -P O T A T O E S A N D G R A P E S (---------P ro d u ctio n *---------- > t— C a rlot Shipm ents— \ 5 -Y e a r T o N o v e m b e r 7, T otal A v er1925 1924 1924 age§ (cars) (cars) (cars) P ota toes: 1925J 1924 C a lifo rn ia ____ 7,248 7,750 9,225 4,111 4,212 6,588 Id a h o ................ 12,920 10,725 10,471 5,101 4,250 11,942 W a s h in g t o n . . 7,344 6,615 3,512 2,432 6,692 "O thert .............. 7,930 6,418 8,064 1,619 1,244 2,103 T w e lft h D is t r ic t . . . . 35,442 31,508 35,760 14,343 12,138 27,325 U n ite d S t a t e s . 346,503 454 ,784 388,497 122,001 129,221 252,620 G ra p es: C a lifo rn ia . . . . 1,989 1,550 69,589 55,424 57,318 R a is in . . . . . 1,200 900 270 T a b le ........... 404 300 W in e ............ 385 350 393 8,000 *000 o m itte d . P o t a t o e s g iv e n in b u sh e ls. G ra p e s g iv e n in ton s, tN e v a d a , O r e g o n , and U ta h . ^ P re lim in a ry estim a te N o v e m b e r 1, 1925. §1919-1923. S o u r c e : U n ite d S ta te s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e . A survey of the livestock industry in the Twelfth District indicates that condition of ranges, excepting small areas in W ashington, is excellent, that supplies of hay for winter feeding are plentiful and obtainable at prices which permit of their profitable use, and that livestock generally are entering the winter months in satisfactory condition. Favorable physical conditions during the past season and generally satisfactory financial returns during the past two years have encouraged some ex pansion in the sheep raising branch of the live stock industry since 1923. Physical conditions have also favored cattle raising during the past two years, but it is only within the past eight months that a strengthening demand for beef has been noted, and improvement in the cattle industry has but recently become apparent. Liquidation of financially weak concerns has continued in slight degree, and, in some parts of the district, a tendency to shift from cattle to sheep raising has persisted through 1925. T w o important factors in the present livestock situation as referring to cattle in this district are: 1. The continued upward trend of cattle prices during the greater part of 1925; 2. A re- ( A ) A gricultural M arketing A ctivity— (---------E x p o r ts ---------- \ --------- C arlot Shipm ents---------> L iv e s to ck R eceip ts W heat* Barley* A p p les* at Eight M arkets in 12th D istrict Portland and San 12th O ra n gesf L e m o n sf Cattle C a lif. C a lif. Puget Sound F ra n cisco D ist. and (cars) (cars) (cars) C a lves M on th ly (1000 bu.) (lOOObu.) H ogs Sheep 16,056 827 724 144,353 O ctob er, 1 9 2 5 .............................................. 1,382 1,000 162,175 440,452 8,603 1,860 700 S ep te m b e r, 19 2 5 .............................................. 3 , 86411 1,999 120,880 1 36,796 411,260 15,092$ 1,921 578 126,541° O c t o b e r — 5 -yea r a v e r a g e ............................. 3,952 1,499 151,569° 383 ,888 ° (1 9 1 9 -1 9 2 3 ) Cu m u lative (------------------------- C ro p Y e a r C alend ar Y e a r ------------11,761 1,069,365 T o O c t o b e r 31, 1 9 2 5 .................................... 5,737 7,540 25,593 37,341 1,823,445 2,815,650 (9 0 .2 ) (1 6 .0 ) (4 4 .5 ) (5 .5 ) 47,559 5,403 20,907 13,085 9,251 1,047,467 T o O c t o b e r 31, 1 9 2 4 .................................... 2,151,939 2,787,329 (9 1 .2 ) (2 8 .0 ) (4 5 .5 ) (9 4 .0 ) (1 3 .1 ) 42,262 10,522 F iv e -y e a r a v e r a g e t o O c t o b e r 3 1 .......... 11,034 6,978 22,448 928,335° 1,595,235° 2,676,061° (9 5 .8 ) (1 7 .7 ) (4 1 .2 ) (9 6 .4 ) _____ 0 9 1 9 -1 9 2 3 ) (9 .7 ) Cold Storage Holdings^ 12th D istrict Butter Eggs (1000 (10U0 lb s.) cases) 3,064 3,910 3,001 334 464 28511 (100.0) Figures in parentheses indicate percentage of new crop only. *Season begins July 1st. fSeason begins November 1st. $Four-year average (1922-1925). §At end of month. J|Four-year average. 01921-1925. ^Revised. 84 November, 1925 M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS ported decline, of considerable amount, in the volume of forced sales during the past year as compared with recent previous years. permit figures for 20 cities, are indicated in the follow ing table : B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S I N 20 C I T I E S Per Cent Increase or Decrease (— ) Industrial Activity Moderate expansion of industrial activity in this district has been reported during the past month. Available data for many important in dustries show a larger volume of production during October, 1925, than during September, 1925, or October, 1924. The number of persons gainfully employed declined slightly during the month, reflecting chiefly seasonal decreases in demand for workers in the fruit canning and packing, fishing, and agricultural industries. There was less unemployment, however, dur ing October, 1925, than during October, 1924. Figures of employment in California and Ore gon are shown in Table “ B.” The value of building permits issued in 20 cities of the district was 1.6 per cent greater during October, 1925, than during September, 1925. The normal seasonal increase from Sep tember to October is estimated to be 2.0 per cent. Figures of the value of permits issued were 2.2 per cent larger in October, 1925, than in October, 1924, but 19.2 per cent smaller than in October, 1923. The cumulative value of building permits issued in the 20 cities selected for tabulation during the first ten months of 1925 ($356,639,033) was 7.4 per cent and 1.1 per cent greater than in the same periods of 1924 and 1923. Figures for the ten-month period of 1923 ($352,678,431) have not previ ously been exceeded. Trends of activity in the building industry in this district, as shown by monthly and cumu lative year-to-date comparisons of building (B ) E m ploym ent— t-------- C a liforn ia ---------v • O regon N o . of N o . of ■ E m ployees N o . '—E m p loy ees —« N o. S ept., O ct., O ct., Sept., of of 1925 Firm s 1925 F irm s 1925 1925 Industries 20,355 158,812 167,743 108 19,828 A ll In d u s t r ie s ........... 704 (-2 .6 ) (-5 .3 ) S to n e , C la y and 283 284 8.221 8,380 6 46 G lass P r o d u c t s . (0 .4 ) ( — 1.9) L u m b e r an d W o o d 16,084 29,113 47 15,768 M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 116 29,525 ( — 2 .0 ) (1 .4 ) 818 836 4 2,433 2,326 13 T e x t ile s .................... (2 .2 ) (4 .6 ) C lo th in g , M illin e ry 246 234 64 7,642 7,641 6 an d L a u n d e r in g . ( — 4 .9 ) (0 .0 ) F o o d , B e v e ra g e s 2,362 2,133 35 and T o b a c c o . . . 156 32,778 42,192 ( — 9 .7 ) ( — 2 2 .3 ) W a t e r , L ig h t 9,372 10,060 5 an d P o w e r . . . . ( — 6 .8 ) 68,057 67,288 O th e r I n d u s tr ie s* . 296 ( 1 .1 ) 562 784 743 10 573 M is c e lla n e o u s . . . . 8 (2 .0 ) ( 5 .5 ) * I n c lu d e s the f o llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : m etals, m a c h in e r y and c o n v e y a n ce s ; le a th e r an d r u b b e r g o o d s ; ch e m ic a ls , o ils and p a in t s ; p r in tin g an d p a p e r g o o d s . F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s r e p r e s e n t p e r c e n ta g e c h a n g e s fro m S e p te m b e r. O c t o b e r .. S e p te m b e r. A u g u s t .. . J u ly .......... M o n th s in 1925 com pared with sam e M on th s in /----------------------- 1924 ------------------------ \ M on th ly Y e a r -t o -d a t e N o. V a lu e V a lu e N o. 0.9 2.2 — 2.6 7.4 — 5.2 — 5.9 — 3.0 7.9 — 1.0 3.3 — 2.7 9.7 2.6 7.5 — 3.0 10.6 8.4 11.1 38.6 — 3.8 M o n th in 1925 com pared w ith precedin g M on th N o. V a lu e 1.6 1.9 5.3 — 10.3 7.0 8.1 — 2.0 — 15.1 — 2.2 0.6 The United States Bureau of Labor Statis tics’ index number of building material prices stood at 174 during October and September, 1925, compared with 171 for October, 1924. The Aberthaw index of the total cost of labor and material employed in the construction of a reinforced concrete factory building has re mained unchanged at 194 (1914 average=100) since June 1, 1925. On N ovember 1, 1924, it was 195. Lumber production, as reported by four associations whose members operate in this dis trict, exceeded shipments and new orders re ceived by 6.6 per cent and 16.4 per cent, respec tively, during October. The cut of lumber was 5.6 per cent larger than during September. New orders received by the mills during O c tober were smaller in volume than shipments, which in turn were less than production, so that the volume of unfilled orders on the books of the mills declined and stocks of lumber held by them increased. L U M B E R A C T IV IT Y * O c t ., Sept., O ct., 1925 1925 1924 F irst T e n M on th s —s 1925 1924 (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) (board feet) P r o d u c t io n S h ip m e n ts O rd e rs ............... U n fille d O rd e rs N o . o f M ills R e p o r t in g . . 726,098 681,411 623,986 363,582 687,592 660,775 625,314 429,749 703,507 633,453 585,904 363,570 6,640,860 6,610,707 6,497,504 (board feet) 6,337,192 6,168,318 5,982,973 167 167 189 193t I77t * A s r e p o r te d b y fo u r a s s o cia tio n s , 000 o m itte d e x c e p t in c a s e o f n u m b e r o f m ills r e p o r tin g . t A v e r a g e o f first ten m o n th s . Daily average production of petroleum in California declined 3.5 per cent during October, 1925, but was 7.1 per cent greater than in O c( C) Building P erm its— F resn o ................... L o n g B e a ch . . . . L o s A n g e le s . . . . P a sa d e n a . . ............... .. S a c r a m e n to .......... S a lt L a k e C ity . . . S a n D ie g o ............ San F r a n c is c o . . . . . .. D is t r ic t O cto b e r , 1925 N o. V a lu e 399 $ 780,205 308,997 127 95,683 421 1,286,320 3,882 11,655,786 1,294 3,311,192 32 101,500 256 779,535 151 309,767 1,441 2,295,800 23 271,049 333 685,225 137 935,592 786 1,227,548 1,057 4,351,249 132 446,220 1,094 2,053,100 236 284,220 124 233,325 297 922,875 .............. . . 12,308 $32,335 ,18 8 O cto b e r , 1924 N o. V a lu e 353 $ 660,985 91 84,997 151 181,355 483 986,275 4,312 11,057,277 1,210 2,619,703 35 163,800 333 1,551,667 84 144,729 1,457 2,429,195 24 42,700 321 914,829 141 451,041 626 1,004,649 818 6,116,313 112 183,950 943 2,022,350 240 259,873 129 269,125 330 507,645 12,193 $31 ,652 ,45 8 November, 1925 tober, 1924. Indicated consumption of petro leum increased by 10.6 per cent during the month but was less than production, and stored stocks of petroleum were again at new high levels on November 1, 1925. Figures follow : P E T R O L E U M — C a liforn ia Indicated A v era ge Stored r— N e w W ells A v era ge D aily S to ck s at D aily D aily C on su m ption End o f N u m ber P rod u cP rodu ction (Shipm ents) M o n th O pen ed tion (barrels) O c t ., S ep t., O c t ., S ep t., 1 9 2 5 .. 1 9 2 5 .. 1 9 2 4 .. 192 3*. 645,648 668,759 603,115 858,750 (barrels) 566,948 512,780 587,505 t (barrels) 124,689,411 122,249,717 95,030,777 t (barrels) 69 80 84 93 35,678 41,978 21,534 139,960 * P e a k o f p r o d u c t io n . fC o m p a r a b le fig u re s n o t S o u r c e : A m e r ic a n P e tr o le u m In s titu te . N O N -F E R R O U S M E T A L S —N ational P rodu ction O ct., 1925 C o p p e r ( lb s .) (m in e p r o d u c t i o n ) ..................................141,248,000 »Silver ( o z .) (c o m m e r c ia l 4,933,000 b a r s ) ......................................... Z in c (to n s ) ( s l a b ) ................... 50,497 Sept., 1925 O ct., 1924 134,786,000 137,924,000 4,634,000 47,384 5,631,057 42,448 Seasonal increases in flour milling activity were reported during October. The output of 16 representative milling companies of the dis trict was larger in volume than during Septem ber, 1925, and October, 1924, by 7.7 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. As compared with the five-year (1920-1924) average for the month, production during October, 1925, showed a decline of 19.1 per cent. Millers’ stocks of flour decreased during October and on November 1st were approximately 30 per cent smaller than the five-year average of stocks held on that date. Reported holdings of wheat at the mills increased 54.2 per cent during October, 1925, and, at 3,663,097 bushels on November 1st, were approximately 25 per cent larger than either the holdings of a year ago or the five-year average holdings on N o vember 1st. F L O U R M IL L IN G * O ct. 1925 O u tp u t ( b b l s . ) . . . . 512,120 S tock sf F lo u r ( b b l s . ) . . . 356,068 W h ea t ( b u . ) . . . . 3,663,097 * A s r e p o r te d b y 16 c o m p a n ie s . lo w in g m o n th . pack and larger than the five-year (1920-1924) average pack. Figures follow : C A N N E D SA LM O N PACK (000 omitted) 1925* 1924 F iv e -Y e a r A v era ge 1920-1924 (cases) (cases) leases) ........................ U n ite d S ta te s ( e x c lu d in g A l a s k a ) . . . 4,500 1,300 5,306 940 4,381 942 ........................ B ritis h C o lu m b ia .............. ........................ S ib e r ia and J a p a n ............... ........................ 5,800 1,550 650 6,246 1,769 810 5,323 1,238 713 ................... ........................ 8,000 8,825 7,274 T o t a l W o r ld A ca se c o n ta in s 48 o n e -p o u n d ca n s o r th e ir e q u iv a le n t. * P r e lim in a r y estim a te. General Business and Trade a v a ila b le . Figures of national production of non-ferrous metals fo llo w : Sept., 1925 475 ,456 O ct., 1924 510,214 F iv e -Y e a r A v era ge O ct., 1920-1924 632,803 374,022 2,375,637 522,390 2,919,099 509,578 2,889,209 There was a slight increase in business ac tivity in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District during October. It is estimated that the volume of trade transacted was above normal. Debits to individual accounts (bank debits) at banks in 20 principal clearing house centers, a measure of total trade volume, were 10.4 per cent larger in volume during October than during September. The increase exceeded the estimated normal seasonal increase for O cto ber, and this bank’s index, which is adjusted for seasonal variations, advanced from 143 to 148 (1919 average= 100). In October, 1924, the INDEX NUMBERS B A N K D E B I T S -T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T In d ex for 20 principal cities, Ph oenix, A r iz o n a , not included, (1919 m onthly average— 100). Latest figures, O cto b e r, with adjustm ent, 148; w ithout adjustm ent, 157. (D ) Bank D ebits*— ..$ t A s o f the first d a y o f th e f o l A ccording to preliminary estimates, slightly less than 6,000,000 cases of canned salmon were packed in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest during the past season. This compares with a 1924 pack of 6,246,000 cases and a five-year average (1920-1924) pack of 5,323,000 cases. The smaller volume of the 1925 pack as com pared with the 1924 pack is reported to have been due largely to a reduction in the catch of red salmon in western Alaskan waters. Pre liminary figures indicate that the 1925 world salmon pack has been smaller than the 1924 85 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT SAN FRANCISCO L o n g B e a ch .. L o s A n g e le s .. . . ., P a sa d e n a .. S a c r a m e n to . . S alt L a k e C ity S an D ie g o . . . San F r a n c is c o . . S an J o s e . . . . . . O cto b e r, 1925 19,648 $ 14,247 59,502 49,916 803,085 158,475 33,025 33,455 26,750 203,184 9,819 38,300 83,978 59,926 1,071,722 33,075 218,220 60,215 31,134 45,689 19,203 . .$ 3 ,0 7 2 ,5 6 8 *000 omitted. O cto b e r, 1924 17,310 13,474 44,160 46,104 748,228 124,088 28,243 31,761 23,866 195,394 8,035 39,636 70,831 46,988 857,026 30,920 194,145 52,348 22,888 40,045 15,356 $2,650,846 $ T e n M onths 1925 1924 181,907 $ 174,934 121,160 114,998 359,722 327,230 469,657 517,492 7,795,797 7,411,143 1,242,234 1,393,963 243,195 231,748 346,612 325,378 204,639 227,575 1,622,084 1,653,966 86,097 79,747 363,280 437,307 689,963 628,893 544,437 482,938 9,427,965 8,091,583 252,452 226,031 1,998,729 1,808,791 515,411 474,506 257,643 234,757 436,358 402,065 127,138 101,629 $27,493,027 $25,140,127 86 November, 1925 M O N TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS index stood at 128, the same figure as the aver age for the years 1923 and 1924. Trade at retail increased by more than the usual seasonal amount during October. An index based upon sales reported by 32 depart ment stores, adjusted for normal seasonal movements, advanced from 153 in September INDEX NUMBERS increases in value of sales were no doubt due to higher prices now prevailing, as compared with a year ago. The general wholesale price level was 3.8 per cent higher in October, 1925, than in October, 1924. W H OLESALE TRAD E P ercentage increase or decrease (— ) (------------in V a lu e of S a le s-----------O ct., 1925 O ct., 1925 Sept., 1925 com pared com pared com pared N o . of with with with Firm s O ct., 1924 Sept., 1925 Sept.. 1924 A g r ic u ltu r a l Im p le m e n t s . 20 44.5 — 10.3 45.5 A u t o m o b ile S u p p lie s 18 4.0 3.2 — 1.2 A u to m o b ile T i r e s ............... 22 92.7 24.1 19.7 D ru g s ................................. 6 — 0.6 7.2 1.2 17 — 1.2 — 1.2 — 7.4 10 16.3 15.9 9.6 18 9.9 15.2 — 1.8 25 3.4 — 0.6 10.4 20 4.0 1.6 6.4 11 3.1 — 11.3 18.1 26 — 2.5 — 11.0 11.6 On October 31, 1925, savings deposits at 70 banks in seven principal cities of the district were 0.4 per cent smaller in amount than on September 30, 1925, but were 10.2 per cent larger than on October 31, 1924. Ordinarily there is a slight increase in savings deposits during October. S A V IN G S D E P O S IT S D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S -T W E L F T H D IS T R IC T In d ex o f 32 Stores in 7 cities (1919 m onthly average = 100). Latest figures, O cto b e r , with adjustm ent, 158; w ithout adjustm ent, 170. to 158 in October. Retailers’ inventories at the close of October were larger than a year ago, but the increase was not so great as the in crease in value of sales over the year period, and the rate of stock turnover during October, 1925 (3.34 times per annum) was higher than in October, 1924 (3.17 times per annum). D E P A R T M E N T S T O R E S A L E S - I n d e x N um bers (1919 M onthly A v e r a g e = 1 0 0 ) Seasonal A d justm ent L os O ak A n ge le s land 1919. . 116 O c t ., 111 1920. . 139 O c t ., 136 O c t ., 1921. . 145 120 O c t ., 1922. . 170 134 O c t ., 1923. . 216 153 1924. . 218 160 O c t ., Ju n e, 1925. . 194 143 1925. . 188 117 J u ly , 210 138 A u g ., 1925. S e p t., 1925. . 193 133 O c t ., 1925. . 238 178 W ith S asonal A d ju stm en t O c t ., 102 1919. . 113 O c t ., 1920. . 135 126 1921. . 141 111 O c t ., 124 1922. . 166 O c t ., 1923. . 210 142 O c t ., O c t ., 1924. . 212 147 Ju n e, 1925. . 209 143 1925. . 219 146 J u ly , 1925. . 195 153 A u g ., 1925. . 223 140 S ep t., 1925. . 232 164 O c t ., San F ra n c is c o 115 129 125 137 151 146 120 104 129 130 148 Salt Lake C ity 125 138 111 119 126 121 106 85 90 113 139 Seattle 124 106 92 102 113 111 98 91 97 107 116 Spo kane 159 165 131 129 138 117 85 77 88 100* 131 D is trict 120 131 124 139 161 159 136 124 142 141 170 107 119 116 127 139 135 143 134 135 140 137 106 117 93 100 106 102 103 106 115 114 117 112 96 83 92 102 101 98 100 102 98 105 119 124 98 97 104 88 84 99 101 97* 98 112 122 115 129 150 147 147 150 148 153 158 d. ^ R e v is e d . lue of sales of 193 wholesale firms; in eleven lines of trade was 11.4 per cent greater in October, 1925, than in October, 1924. Eight of eleven reporting lines showed increased sales as compared with October, 1924, the in creases ranging from 3.1 per cent for shoes to 92.7 per cent for automobile tires. Part of the N u m ber O ct. of 31, 1925* Banks L o s A n g e le s . . 13 $387,174 .. 7 99,126 P o r tla n d . . , . . 8 55,135 29,990 S a lt L a k e C ity 8 San F r a n c is c o . 14 462,970 76,658 S e a t t l e .......... . . 14 6 19,554 Sept. 30. 1925* $ 391,127§ 99,587 53,168 30,959 464,889 75,884 19,413 O ct.31,1925t com pared with O ct. O ct. Sept. 30, 31, 31, 1925 1924* 1924 $341,121 § 13.5 — 1.0 92,344§ 7.3 — 0.5 52,566 4.9 3.7 29,274 2.4 — 3.1 421,454 9.9 — 0.4 69,271 10.7 1.0 20,109§ — 2.8 0.7 T o t al ..............70 $1,130,607 $ 1,135,027§$ 1,026,139§ 10.2 — 0.4 *000 om itte d . J P e rc e n ta g e in cre a se o r d e cre a s e ( — ) . § R e v is e d . Prices The trend of prices was downward during October, but there has been some evidence of a reversal of the movement during the first weeks of November. The wholesale price index num ber of the Bureau of Labor Statistics declined during October, and, at 157.6 (1913 p rice s= 100) was 1.3 per cent below the figure for Sep tember and 1.7 per cent below the figure for August, a recent peak. The index was 3.8 per cent higher in October, 1925, than in October, 1924 (151.9). Decline in the index during O c tober as compared with September, 1925, was due principally to lower prices prevailing for farm products and foods, although the build ing materials and chemical and drugs groups of the composite index also declined slightly. W eekly indexes of com m odity prices at whole sale advanced during the last week of October and the first two weeks of November. The Department of Agriculture’s farm price index of 30 farm products declined during O c tober, while the Bureau of Labor’s non-agricultural products price index advanced during the month, so that the ratio between the two indexes declined from 88 in September to 87 in October. The ratio, which affords a measure November, 1925 of the purchasing power of farm products, is now the same as in October, 1924. In August, 1925, it stood at 93, the highest point reached since June, 1920. The upward trend of cattle, sheep and lamb prices noted during recent months continued during October, and average quotations on all classes of meat animals were higher during that month than they were one year ago. Prices of hogs declined during October, 1925. Monthly average prices (per 100 pounds) of beef cattle, hogs, sheep, and lambs at Chicago and percentage comparisons for the past month and year follow : 1924 87 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT A T SAN FRANCISCO C a ttle (N a tiv e beef) O c t o b e r ................................... N o v e m b e r .............................. D e c e m b e r ............................... H og9 Sheep Fat Lam b9 $10.27 9.79 9.23 $10.10 8.96 9.55 $6.33 6.80 7.82 $13.40 13.90 16.21 9.13 9.35 10.21 10.25 10.04 10.65 11.95 12.17 11.56 11.73 10.40 11.09 13.61 12.84 12.00 12.51 13.43 12.85 12.33 11.49 9.04 8.48 8.88 7.50 7.26 6.74 7.75 7.11 7.05 7.24 18.10 17.49 16.21 14.02 13.72 14.89 15.05 14.89 15.10 15.18 1 4 .2 % 1 3 .8 % 1 4 .4 % 1 3 .3 % 2 .7 % 0 .5 % 1925 J a n u a ry .................................. F eb ru a ry ............................... M arch ..................................... A p r il ......................................... M a y ........................................... June ......................................... J u ly ........................................... A u g u s t .................................... S e p te m b e r ............................. O c t o b e r ................................... I n c r e a s e O c t ., 1925, o v e r O c t ., 1924 ........................ I n c r e a s e O c t ., 1925, o v e r S e p t., 1925 ...................... 1 .5 % 6 .8 % * *D ecrea se. W heat prices have advanced rapidly during the past month. A t Chicago, the May contract for new wheat, which reached a 1925 low point of $1.33 to $1.36% per bushel on October 3rd, sold for $1.52% to $1.54 per bushel on Novem ber 18th. Quotations on the latter date were about 14% cents per bushel lower than the 1925 high point ($1.66% to $1.68% per bushel) for this (May, 1926) contract reached on August 8, 1925. May contracts for new wheat sold at $1,585/8 to $1.60% per bushel on November 18, 1924, and $2.0 2 % to $ 2 .0 5 ^ per bushel (1925 high) on January 30, 1925. Cotton prices at the beginning of November were ap proximately 17.5 per cent below the figures of one month and one year ago. Quotations for cash middling uplands cotton at New Orleans are given in Table “ E.” Present cotton prices are approximately 53 per cent higher than 1913 monthly average prices. The average of 98 w ool quotations at Boston, at 78.86 cents per pound for the week ending November 13th, was 1.8 per cent higher than one month ago and 11.9 per cent lower than one year ago. Potato prices advanced rapidly during O c tober, both in this district and in the United States, and present returns to growers of this crop, an important one in some parts of this district, are larger than one year ago. Prices at important loading and receiving markets in this district and at certain mid-west and east ern terminal markets follow : W E E K L Y R A N G E 'O F J P R I C E S O F P O T A T O E S (Dollars per 100 lbs., sacked) P ercentage increase O ct. 31, 1925 com pared w ith O ct. O ct. N ov. O ne O ne 31. 3, 1, M o n th Y ea r 1925 1925 1924 Ago Ago I d a h o F a lls . . $ 3 .5 0 -$ 3 .7 5 f $1.20* $ 1 .0 7 ^ t 202.1 237.2 1.90 .. 71.1 Y a k im a * ......... 3 .0 0 - 3.50 L o s Angeles||.. 4 .0 0 - 4.25 2 .5 0 -$ 2 .6 0 1.60—$1.70 61.8 150.0 San Francisco|| 4 .0 0 - 4.25 2 .1 5 - 2.25 1 .3 5 - 1.55 87.5 184.5 1 .8 0 - 1.90 .7 0 - .85 127.0 441.9 C h i c a g o § .......... 4 .1 5 - 4.25 N e w Y o r k § . . 4 . 0 0 - 4.15 2 .4 0 - 2.50 1 .0 0 - 1.15 66.3 279.1 P h ila d e lp h ia § . 4.00 2 .1 5 - 2.30 1 .0 5 - 1.35 79.8 233.3 * W a g o n lo a d s , cash to g r o w e r s , sa ck e d ru rals. fS a c k e d russets. J N e tte d g e m s, U . S. N o . 1. ^§ R e p re s e n ta tiv e m ark et v a rieties, p r ic e to jo b b e r s . ||California lo n g w h ite s, U . S . N o . 1. Average f. o. b. prices for oranges and lemons at California shipping points for the past four crop years, as reported by the California Fruit Growers Exchange, are given below : O ra n g e s ( b o x ) Lem ons (b o x ) N o v ., 1924 N o v ., 1923 to to O ct., 1925 O ct., 1924 .......... $4.42 $2.73 .......... 4.50 2.57 N o v ., 1922 to O ct., 1923 $2.67 4.69 N o v .,1921 to O ct.. 1922 $4.42 4.08 Recent spot prices for certain varieties of canned salmon and 1925 and 1924 opening prices for the same varieties are given in the following ta b le: S pot Price* V a rie ty N o v . 2,1925 A la s k a R e d s ...................... $ 3 .2 5 -$ 3 .5 0 P in k s ...................................... 1 .3 5 - 1.45 C h u m s ................................... 1.15 ,------- O pening P ric e * -------- \ 1925 1924 $3.50 $ 2 .2 5 -$ 2 .5 0 1 .2 5 -$ 1 .4 5 1 .2 5 - 1.30 1 .1 0 - 1.15 1.20 * P e r d o z e n n u m b e r 1 tall can s. ( £ ) Com m odity P rices— C om m o d ity W h o le s a le P r ic e s ( U . S. B u re a u o f L a b o r ) 1 9 1 3 = 1 0 0 ...................................... P u rc h a s in g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s (U . S. D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u lt u r e ) * C a ttle (N a t iv e B e e f ) .W e e k l y a v e ra g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o .................................... H o g s ................................W e e k ly a v e ra g e p r ice at C h ic a g o ..................................... L a m b s ............................ W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ..................................... W h e a t ............................. C h ic a g o c o n tr a c t p r ice fo r D e ce m b e r w h e a t............. B a rle y ............................. S h ip p in g b a r le y f. o. b. San F r a n c i s c o ............. ........... C o t t o n ............................. M id d lin g U p la n d s — W e e k ly ra n g e o f s p o t q u o t a tio n s at N e w O r le a n s ........................................... ............ W o o l ...............................A v e ra g e o f 98 q u o ta tio n s at B o s t o n .............................. S u g a r ...............................B eet g ra n u la ted f. o. b. San F r a n c is c o ......................... A p p le s ............................. W in e s a p s m ed iu m to la r g e e x tra fa n c y f. o. b P a c ific N o r t h w e s t .............................................................. P ru n es ............................. S iz e 4 0 /5 0 in 25-lb . b o x e s f. o. b. C a lifo r n ia .............. R a isin s ...........................L o o s e M u s c a te l 3 -c ro w n in 25-lb. b o x e s f. o. b. C a lifo rn ia ................................................................................ C o p p e r ............................ E le c t r o ly t ic m o n th ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k ............... L e a d ................................M o n t h ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k .......................................... S ilv e r ................................M o n t h ly a v e ra g e at N e w Y o r k .......................................... Z in c .................................. M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at St. L o u i s ............................................ L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) .. W e e k l y I n d e x U n ite d S t a t e s § ......................................... U nit 100 lb s. 100 lb s. 100 lbs. bu . ce n ta l lb . lb . lb . N ov em b er 6,1925 157.6 87 $10.50 11.10 15.05 1 .4 7 ^ -1 .5 1 $ * 1 .5 0 -1 .7 5 1 8 .0 5 -1 9 .8 2 0 77.980 5.350$ box lb . 2.15 .0 8 -.0 8 U lb . lb. lb. oz. lb. .08 14.3000 9.5130 71.1060 8.2820 30.59 O n e M on th A g o 159.7 88 $12.10 12.60 15.10 1 .3 3 * g -1 .3 7 5 * f 1.55-1.7 5 2 2 .6 0 -2 3 .3 3 0 76.760 5.150 1 .7 5 -2 .1 0 .0 8 ^ -.0 9 ^ O ne Y ear A go 151.9 87 $10.00 9.30 13.75 1 .4 7 ^ -1 .5 0 5 4 2 .7 5 -2 .9 0 2 2 .8 5 -2 3 .0 5 0 89.290 7.200 2 .0 0 -2 .2 5 . .08 14.3760 9.5080 71.5700 7.7530 30.34 * R a tio o f farm p rice s (A u g u s t, 1909-July 1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ) to w h o le sa le p rice s o f n o n -a g ricu ltu ra l c o m m o d itie s (1 9 1 0 -1 9 1 4 = 1 0 0 ). f R e v is e d . J N o v e m b e r 16, 1925. § A s p u b lish e d b y “ T h e L u m b e r M a n u fa ctu re r a n d D e a l e r / ’ 10-.1054 .08 12.9330 8 .2350 70.8270 6.3240 30.14 88 November, 1925 M ON TH LY REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Prices of rous metals numbers of in Table “ E the important industrial non-ferproduced in this district and index softw ood lumber prices are given ” Banking and Credit Situation Commercial demand for credit in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District increased during O c tober and the first half of November. Increases in loans of member banks were partially re flected in an increased volume of credit ex tended by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Total loans of reporting member banks in principal cities of the district increased by $36,000,000 (3.2 per cent) during the five weeks ending Novem ber 10, 1925. Commercial loans increased by $26,000,000 (3.0 per cent) and loans secured by stocks and bonds increased by $10,000,000 (3.7 per cent). Demand deposits at these banks also increased during the fiveweek period, but the relative increase was less than that of their loans and the ratio of demand deposits to total loans declined from 66.8 on October 7, 1925, to 66.4 on November 10, 1925. A year ago the ratio stood at 79.3. During the year period, however, there has been a significant increase in volume of time deposits, and the ratio of total deposits to total loans was but 7.6 points lower on N o vember 10, 1925 (136.5) than on November 12, 1924 (144.1). and for the subsequent decline. Member banks have used some of the funds made available during recent weeks to augment their reserve deposits, and total deposits at the Reserve Bank increased $6,000,000 (3.3 per cent) during the five-week period. Federal reserve note cir culation in the district declined from $206,000,000 to $204,000,000 during the month end ing November 18th. F E D E R A L R E SE R V E B A N K O F SA N F R A N C IS C O (In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses.) C on dition N o v . 18, 1925 T o t a l B ills an d S e cu ritie s * 126 B ills D is c o u n t e d ! .......... 50 U n it e d S tates S e c u r itie s . 44 B ills B o u g h t i ................... 32 T o t a l R e s e r v e s ................. . 268 T o t a l D e p o s its ................. 176 F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te C ir c u la tio n ....................., . 204 Ch ange from O n e M on th Ago + 9 ( 8 .0 ) 0 0 + 9 (3 9 .2 ) — 4 ( 1.6) + 6 ( 3.3 ) — 2 ( 0 .8 ) C h an ge from O ne Y ear Ago + 2 5 ( 2 5 .0 ) + 43 (6 5 6 .3 ) — 16 ( 2 7 .2 ) — 2 ( 6 .9 ) — 32 ( 10.8) — 1 ( 0 .8 ) — 6 ( 2 .9 ) * F o r m e r ly p u b lis h e d as “ T o t a l E a r n in g A s s e t s .” f F o r m e r l y p u b lis h e d as “ D is c o u n t s .” ^ F o r m e r ly p u b lis h e d as “ P u rc h a s e d A c c e p t a n c e s .” M IL L IO N S O F D O L L A Q S R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S * — T w elfth D istrict (In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses.) C o n d itio n N o v . r---------------------- C h anges f r o m ----------------------- ^ 10, O n e M o n th Six M on th s O ne Y ear 1925 Ago Ago Ago T o t a l L o a n s .......... 1,186 + 3 6 ( 3 .2 ) + 84 ( 7 .6 ) + 1 3 7 ( 13.0) C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s 912 + 2 6 ( 3 .0 ) + 49 ( 5.7 ) + 80 ( 9 .6 ) L o a n s se c u r e d bys t o c k s and b o n d s 274 + 1 0 ( 3 .7 ) + 35 ( 14.5) + 57 ( 2 6 .3 ) In v e s tm e n ts ......... 475 + 1 4 ( 3 .0 ) + 25 ( 5.5 ) + 61 ( 14.8) T o t a l L o a n s and I n v e s tm e n ts . . . 1,661 + 5 0 ( 3 .1 ) + 1 0 9 ( 7 .0 ) + 1 9 8 ( 13.5) N et D em and D e p o s it s .............. 788 + 2 0 ( 2 .6 ) + 19 ( 2.5) — 44 ( 5.2) T im e D e p o s it s . . . 821 + 2 4 ( 3 .1 ) + 57 ( 7 .4 ) + 1 5 2 ( 2 2 .8 ) B o r r o w in g s fro m F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B a n k ..................... 54 + 1 0 (2 2 .6 ) + 33 (1 5 8 .5 ) + 49 (9 7 8 .8 ) * T o ta l re s o u rce s o f r e p o r t in g b a n k s are a p p ro x im a te ly 5 0 % o f tota l r e s o u rce s o f all b a n k s, and 7 5 % o f tota l r e s o u rce s o f all m e m b e r b a n k s in T w e lfth F e d e ra l R e s e rv e D is tr ic t. R e p o r t in g b a n k s e m b r a c e m e m b e r b a n k s in L o s A n g e le s , O a k lan d , O g d e n , P o r tla n d , S a lt L a k e C ity , S an F r a n c is c o , S ea ttle, S p o k a n e , and T a c o m a . Holdings of bills and securities at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco increased by $9,000,000 (8.0 per cent) during the five-week period ending November 18, 1925, all of the increase being in the item of bills bought in the open market. A t $126,346,000 on November 18th, however, total bills and securities were $16,625,000 below the autumn peak of $142,974,000 reached on November 4th. Changes in volume of discounts were responsible for the rise between October 14th and November 4th Figures fo r 67 m em ber banks in leading cities, as o f last W ed n esd a y o f each m onth. Latest figures, O cto b e r 28. During November, four of the twelve Federal reserve banks in the United States have, with the approval of the Federal Reserve Board, an nounced increases in their rediscount rates. These changes are shown in the follow ing ta b le: R E D IS C O U N T R A T E S (A ll classes of paper, all maturities) ,---------N e w R a te--------- ï F ed era l R e se rve B ank o f Rate B o s t o n ...................... 4 C le v e la n d ................ 4 4 P h ila d e lp h ia .......... S an F r a n c is c o . . . 4 N ov. N ov. N ov. N ov. D ate E ffective 10, 1925 17, 1925 20, 1925 23, 1925 < R ate 3y> zy2 3% O ld R a t e -----------D ate E ffective J u n e 12, 1924 A u g . 15, 1924 J u n e 19, 1924 A u g . 25, 1924 A ll of the Federal reserve banks now have a rediscount rate of 4 per cent except the Fed eral Reserve Bank of New York, which has a rate of 3y2 per cent.
@FedFRASER