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MONTHLY REVIEW
OF
B U S IN E S S
C O N D IT IO N S
ISAAC B. N EW TO N , Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Vol. X I
San Francisco, California, June 20,1927
No. 6
S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N A L C O N D IT IO N S
Prepared by the Federal Reserve Board
Industrial production increased in May and
continued at a higher level than a year ago,
while distribution of commodities was in
smaller volume than last year. The general
level of wholesale com m odity prices has
changed but little in the past two months.
Production. Output of manufactures in
creased considerably in May, while production
of minerals was maintained at the April level.
Increased activity was shown in cotton and
woolen mills, in meat packing, and in the pro
duction of lumber. Output of iron and steel,
non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and building
materials, after allowance for usual seasonal
variations, was maintained at practically the
same level as in April. Since the latter part of
May, however, production of steel and automo
biles has declined. The total value of building
contracts awarded continued slightly larger in
May and in the first tw o weeks of June than
in the corresponding period of last year. P ro
duction of winter wheat was estimated by the
Department of Agriculture on the basis of
June 1st condition at 537,000,000 bushels, or
90,000,000 bushels less than last year. The
P E R CENT
indicated production of rye was placed at 48,600,000 bushels, which is twenty per cent larger
than the 1926 crop.
Trade. Sales of retail stores in May showed
more than the usual seasonal decline from the
high April level. Compared with May of last
year, department store sales were about 4 per
cent smaller, while those of mail order houses
were slightly larger. Value of wholesale trade
of all leading lines, except groceries and meats,
was smaller in May than in April, 1927, or
May, 1926. Inventories of merchandise car
ried by department stores showed slightly
more than the usual seasonal decline in May,
and at the end of the month were somewhat
smaller than a year ago. Stocks of wholesale
firms were also smaller than last year. Freight
carloadings increased in May by less than the
usual seasonal amount, and for the first time
in over a year, daily average loadings were in
smaller volume than in the corresponding
month of the preceding year. Loadings of all
classes of commodities except livestock, ore,
and miscellaneous products were smaller than
last year.
PER CENT
\ 9 2 3
PR ODUCTION OF M A N U FA C TU R E S A N D M IN ER ALS
Index numbers of production of manufactures and minerals, ad
justed for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average=100). Latest
figures, May, manufactures, 112;
minerals, 107.
1 9 2 4
19 2 5
19 2 6
1927
W H O L E SAL E PRICES
Index of United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 prices = 100,
base adopted by Bureau). Latest figure, May, 144.1.
T h o s e d e s ir in g t h i s r e v ie w s e n t t h e m r e g u la r ly w ill r e c e iv e i t w it h o u t c h a r g e u p o n a p p lic a tio n .
42
J u n e, 1927
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Prices. The general level of wholesale com
m odity prices has remained practically un
changed since the middle of April. Prices
of grains, cotton, and hides and skins have
advanced, but these advances have been off
set in the general index by declines in the
prices of livestock, w ool, silk, metals, and
rubber.
Bank Credit. Demand for bank credit to
finance trade and industry remained at a con
stant level between the middle of May and the
Middle of June, and the growth in the volume
of credit extended by member banks in leading
cities during the period was in holdings of se
curities and in loans on stocks and bonds.
Loans to brokers and dealers in securities by
reporting member banks in New York City
increased rapidly and on June 15th were in
larger volume than at any previous time cov
ered by the reports. A t the Federal reserve
banks there was little net change in the volume
of bills and securities between May 25th and
June 22nd, the fluctuations during the period
reflecting largely the effects of Treasury opera
tions. Discounts for member banks, toward
the end of June, were in about the same volume
as a month earlier, while there was a decline in
the reserve banks' holdings of acceptances and
an increase in their portfolio of United States
securities.
Conditions in the money market were fairly
stable throughout the period, with slight ad
vances in the rates on commercial paper and,
more recently, on bankers’ acceptances.
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
TOTAL
RE SE RV E
BAIMK
T
CRE DIT A
\ /V
nr
DISCOUN ITS FOR
MEMBER B A N K S
{
U.S.SECU RITIES
u
y
V
V
)
V
*%
*"*N ^ J x "
*
Jr\
ACCEP T A N C E S
1
1923
M EM B ER BAN K CRED IT
Monthly averages of weekly figures for banks in 101 leading
cities. Latest figures are averages for first three weekly report
dates in June.
1924
1925
1926
1927
RESERVE BAN K C R ED IT
Monthly averages of daily figures for 12 Federal Reserve Banks.
Latest figures are averages of first 23 days in June.
T W E L F T H F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T C O N D IT IO N S
Some slackening in business activity in the
Tw elfth Federal Reserve District is indicated
by available detailed reports of industry and
trade during May, 1927, but the total volume
of trade was maintained at relatively high
levels. A late season in agriculture is indicated
by present field conditions, but current crop
estimates approximate the average yield of
previous years.
Industrial output continued, during May,
1927, below that of a year ago, and reported
volume of employment, as a result of smaller
payrolls in lumbering and food products manu
facturing, was less than in May, 1926. Daily
average carloadings of railroads of the district
are estimated to have declined slightly over the
year period, value of sales at wholesale de
creased, and value of sales at retail was but lit
tle larger in May, 1927, than in May, 1926.
This bank’s seasonally adjusted index (re
vised) of daily average bank debits advanced
slightly during May. Part of the advance is
reported to have been caused by the transfer
of time deposits to demand deposits, and the
checking out of the latter in payment of mid
year obligations, which would result in some
duplication in debits figures. Savings deposits,
BANK D EBITS*—Twelfth District
May,
Apr., Mar.,
1927
1927
1927
W it h S e a s o n a l A d ju s t m e n t .. . 128
W ith o u t S e a s o n a l A d ju s t m e n t 122
* D a ily a v e ra g e , 1 9 2 3 -1 9 2 5 = 1 0 0 .
r e v ise d in d e x see p a g e 48.
125
125
122
130
May,
1926
115
110
Apr.,
1926
114
113
F o r a b r ie f d e s c r ip tio n o f th e
as reported to this bank by 62 banks of the dis
trict, declined in amount between May 1, and
June 1, 1927.
Condition statements of reporting member
banks reveal a seasonal diminution in demand
for credit during May and early June, and dis
counts at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Fran
cisco declined during this period. The amount
of funds advanced to borrowers by reporting
banks continued well above a year ago, how
ever, while borrowings at the Federal Reserve
Bank showed only a moderate increase over the
year period. Interest rates at mid-June were
slightly lower than in June, 1926, or June, 1925.
INDEX
NUMBER
B A N K D E B IT S —T W E L F T H
D IS T R IC T
In d ex for 20 principal cities, Ph oenix, A r iz o n a , not includ ed (d a ily
averages, 1923-1925 average = 100). Latest figures, M a y , with
adjustm ent, 128; w ithout adjustm ent, 122.
*Based upon average month to month increase during the years 1919 to 1926 inclusive.
Agriculture
C a lifo rn ia ............
I d a h o ......................
O r e g o n .................
N evada
................
U ta h
......................
W a s h in g t o n
T w e lft h D is t r ic t
S ou rce:
W IN T E R W H E A T
t------ C o n d itio n ----- > t-------P r o d u ctio n ------- \
(P er C en t o f N orm al) (000 bushels om itted)
A ctu al
Indicated
10-Y ear*
June I,
1926
1927 1926 A v e ra g e June 1,1927
12,015
15,819
80
88
88
10,281
11,182
90
91
91
17,600
18,691
90
88
89
120
120
95
100
94
3,129
2,801
89
94
98
19,481
30,928
83
89
83
79,541
62,626
626,929
537,001
72.2 76.5
78.1
U n it e d S ta te s D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e .
Although prevailing weather conditions have
retarded growth of spring sown grains— bar
ley, oats, rye, and spring wheat— a good stand
has been secured and an abundance of soil
moisture holds promise of satisfactory crops.
C O N D IT IO N O F S P R IN G S O W N G R A IN S
(Per Cent of Normal)
B arley
Rye
Oats
Spring W h eat
June 1,
June 1,
June 1,
June 1.
1926
1927 1926 1927 1926 1927 1926 1927
90
86
92
86
C a lifo rn ia .....................
94
92
94
93
81
91
93
I d a h o ...................... 94
89
92
94
95
87
89
93
. . 87
O reg on . . .
95
93
93
95
,
.
95
95
N evada . ..
91
94
90
94
92
95
91
U ta h ............
92
88
87
84
86
92
. . 82
81
W a s h in g to n
86.3 87.6 84.9
79.9
78.8 81.5
78.5
. . 86.8
Source:
U n ite d S ta tes D e p a r tm e n t o f A g ric u ltu re .
A satisfactory setting of fruit is reported
from the citrus growing areas of California, al
though the California Crop Reporting Service
places the condition of oranges as 79 per cent
of normal, compared with 87 per cent a year
ago, and of lemons as 76 per cent of normal
compared with 94 per cent last year. It is esti
mated that production of the 1927 Valencia
orange crop will approximate 13,900,000
boxes. Shipments of this fruit totaled 11,260,000 boxes during 1926. Shipments of oranges
and lemons from California during May, 1927,
totaled 6,657 and 1,971 carloads, respectively,
compared with 5,520 and 2,361 carloads during
the same month a year ago. Heavy supplies of
oranges in Eastern markets have caused a
slight decline in prices during recent weeks,
while lemons, which are in seasonal demand,
have advanced in price.
Condition figures of deciduous fruits in Cali
fornia, as of June 1st, are lower than a year
ago, but approximate the average of the past
five years. Cool weather and late frosts have
affected the crop adversely in all fruit growing
sections of the district.
D E C ID U O U S F R U IT S A N D N U T S
(C a lifo rn ia )
Cool weather throughout the district during
May and early June, with intervening periods
of high temperatures and strong winds, has
caused some damage to grain and fruit crops
and has further delayed the 1927 agricultural
season.
Production of winter wheat in the district, as
indicated by condition figures of June 1st, will
be 79,541,000 bushels or approximately 16,915,000 bushels more than the crop harvested a
year ago.
*191 7-1 926.
43
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
J u n e, 1927
T a b le G ra pes
W in e G ra pes .
P e a ch e s ...........
P e a rs
...............
- C o n d itio n —
•Cent o f N o rn
June 1,
1927
1926
65
91
58
79
61
47
70
87
84
88
78
92
89
90
68
75
67
92
74
58
95
58
P rodu ction
(ton s)
Indicated
A ctu a l
June 1,1927
1926
14.500
10,350,000*
7,365,000*
181,000
176.000
17.000
1,286,000
414.000
408.000
300.000
327.000
207.000
193.000
72.000
147.000
19.500
*JLn b u sh els.
S o u r c e : C a lifo rn ia C r o p R e p o r t .
Cattle, generally, show the beneficial effects
of a mild winter and favorable range condi
tions. Receipts of cattle and calves at the
eight principal markets of the district totaled
518,510 head up to June 1, 1927, as compared
with receipts of 509,831 head during the first
five months of 1926. Average prices received
for beef steers at Pacific Coast markets have
held at a level approximately one dollar per
hundred pounds higher than a year ago.
The lamb crop in the principal sheep-raising
states of the district is reported to have been
lighter than a year ago. W estern feeder lambs
have been contracted for fall delivery at 10 to
1 1 cents per pound, compared with a prevail
ing price of 10 cents a pound last year at this
season. Seasonal movement of California
spring lambs to Eastern markets has exceeded
that of recent years.
E A S T E R N M O V E M E N T O F C A L IF O R N IA S P R IN G L A M B S
M a rch 15th — June 15th
19 2 7 ..............................................
1 92 6..............................................
1 9 2 5 ..............................................
1 92 4..............................................
1 92 3..............................................
1 92 2..............................................
...
...
...
L ive
339,600
227,000
280,000
...
..,
256,358
230,000
D ressed
56,000
59,019
75,000
195,352
25,000
35,000
T otal
395,600
286,019
335,000
195,352
281,358
265,000
^ S h ip m e n t o f liv e la m b s p r o h ib ite d b e c a u s e o f p r e s e n c e o f fo o t
an d m o u th d ise a se in state.
44
M O N T H L Y R EVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
Present condition of livestock ranges and
livestock is generally as satisfactory as a year
ago, and prospects for summer feed on ranges
throughout the district are excellent. Figures
issued by the United States Department of
Agriculture fo llo w :
C O N D IT IO N O F R A N G E S A N D L IV E S T O C K
(P er C en t o f N orm al)
t------- R anges-------- % t------- Cattle--------n t--------S h e e p ---------n
J u n e l,
M a v l,
J u n e l, M a y I,
J u n e l, M a y l ,
1927 1926 1927
1927 1926 1927
1927 1926 1927
A r iz o n a ..........
86
105
89
89
98
89
95
99
95
C a lifo rn ia . . .
94
92
98
95
95
95
95
94
95
I d a h o ...............
87
90
81
86
97
87
86
96
87
O r e g o n ..........
92
96
84
91
99
87
93
98
91
92
100
89
92
105
90
93
105
92
N e v a d a ..........
U ta h ...............
90
99
89
92
104
90
94 104
94
W a s h in g t o n . 93
92
89
92
93
88
94
99
92
Industry
Available district data, both statistical and
non-statistical, reveal that volume of em ploy
ment and of industrial output was smaller dur
ing May, 1927, than during May, 1926. R e
ported declines in number of workers em
ployed resulted, chiefly, from decreased activ
ity in the lumbering and in the food products
industries.
Building construction continued at high
levels during May. Value of permits granted
in 20 principal cities of the district showed
increases of 22 per cent and 5 per cent when
compared with figures for May, 1926, and
April, 1927, respectively. For the 1927 period
ended June 1st, total value of permits issued
in these 20 cities approximated the total value
of permits granted during the first five months
of 1926. Increased value of building permits
was reported during M ay by principal cities in
all states of the district, except W ashington.
The unusual increase of 88 per cent in value of
permits granted in San Francisco during May,
1927, as compared with May, 1926, is reported
to have been due largely to the low level of
last year’s figures, which covered a period when
(A) Employment—
f—
-----O r e g o n ------------ \
■ C a lifo rn ia —
N o. of
N o . of
N o.
/— E m ployees —n
N o . ^ -E m p lo y e e s --,
M ay,
M
ay,
of
of
M ay,
M ay,
1926
1927
Industries
F irm s 1927
1926 Firm s
28.707
31,810
174
A ll I n d u s t r ie s .......... 795 150,382 153,750
(-9 .8 )
S to n e , C la y and
294
377
6
50
7,566
6,900
G lass P r o d u c t s .
(2
8 .2 )
(9
.7
)
L u m b e r an d W o o d
19,911
62
17,769
M a n u fa c tu r e s . . 129 27,240 29,309
( — 10.8)
( — 7 .1 )
2,205
12
2,093
2,799
2,654
T e x t ile s ...................
19
( — 5.1)
( 5 .5 )
C lo th in g , M illin e r y
416
423
7,703
7,455
a n d L a u n d e r in g .
62
8*
(1 .7 )
( 3 .3 )
F o o d s, B ev era ges
1,882
2,569
50
a n d T o b a c c o . . . 173 26,656 28,415
( — 2 6 .7 )
W a t e r , L ig h t an d
(-2.2)
(—6.2)
P ow er
...............
O th e r I n d u s t r ie s !. 345
M is c e lla n e o u s . . . .
______
12
7,516
( — 16.4)
8,988
68,848
(1 .5 )
2,054
( — 5 .3 )
67,861
2,168
36
6,163
( — 3.9 )
6,415
* L a u n d e r in g o n ly , f l n c l u d e s th e f o llo w in g in d u s t r ie s : m etals,
m a c h in e r y and c o n v e y a n c e s ; leath er and r u b b e r g o o d s ;
ch e m ic a ls , o ils an d p a i n t s ; p r in t in g and p a p e r g o o d s .
F ig u r e s in p a re n th e se s in d ic a te p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e s fr o m M a y ,
1926.
J u n e , 1927
unsettled labor conditions in that city operated
to curtail construction activity.
B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S I N 20 C I T I E S
Per Cent Increase or Decrease (— )
M o n th s in 1927 com pared
with same M on th s in
r—------------------- 1926 --------------------- *
.
A p r il . . . . .
M arch . . . .
F e b ru a r y . .
J a n u a ry .. .
—
—
—
—
—
M o n th ly
N o.
V a lu e
1.4
22.0
6.6
— 4.5
10.7
— 8.9
13.2
— 14.4
15.5
— 16.5
—
—
—
—
—
Y e a r-to -d a te
N o.
V a lu e
9.4
— 4.6
11.3
— 10.6
12.9
— 12.9
— 15.5
14.4
15.5
— 16.5
M on th in 1927
com pared with
precedin g
M on th
N o.
V a lu e
— 6.3
5.0
1.3
— 9.5
44.5
41.1
— 6.0
— 1.9
3.6
— 19.2
During recent weeks there has been a slight
increase in building costs. The United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of wholesale
prices of building materials rose fractionally
during May to 165.6 (1913 prices — 100) from
the April level of 165.0, the lowest figure re
corded in nearly five years. The M ay rise in
this index was the first since November, 1926,
and interrupted the general decline noted since
January, 1926, when it stood at 178.0. The
Aberthaw index of total building costs, includ
ing labor and materials, continued at 193 (1914
costs = 100), the level maintained since Febru
ary, 1927. It stood at 199 a year ago.
Although building activity has continued at
high levels thus far in 1927, the predominance
of large type structures in the present building
program has resulted in a proportionately
smaller consumption of lumber than during the
peak years of post-war building activity. This
has further intensified competition in an indus
try in which productive capacity already ex
ceeded effective consumer demand. Mills least
favorably situated for profitable operation have,
in some cases, been abandoned and many oper
ating mills have curtailed production. By
June 1st, statistical evidence had accumulated
to show that efforts to effect an adjustment be
tween supply of and demand for lumber prod
ucts of the district were meeting with a meas
ure of success. A close alignment between the
three factors— production, shipments, and or
ders received— was noted during M ay in the
data reported by mills to four associations in
(B) Building Permits—
B e r k e le y ............
B o is e ....................
F r e s n o ................
L o n g B ea ch , .
L o s A n g e le s . .
O a k la n d . . . . . .
O g d e n .................
P a sa d e n a ..........
P h o e n ix ..............
P o r t la n d ............
R e n o ....................
S a c r a m e n to . . .
S alt L a k e C it y .
S an D ie g o
S an F r a n c is c o
S an J o s e ............
S e a ttle ................
S p o k a n e ............
S t o c k t o n ............
T a c o m a ...............
N o.
266
19
81
424
3,200
643
39
223
96
956
35
202
111
533
905
80
935
182
77
223
M a y , 1927
V a lu e
$
669,188
110,900
178,508
1,541,200
11,563,303
1,768,183
80,000
1,040,264
466,329
4,706,125
90,400
2,686,388
457,525
1,262,055
4,979,792
117,875
2,659,555
221,151
143,835
420,610
N o.
259
64
82
399
2,960
849
35
238
98
964
23
197
116
700
827
131
898
208
75
238
M a y , 1926
V a lu e
$
910,406
36,027
108,553
417,945
10,702,844
2,408,002
109,700
777 ,406
232,583
3,002,925
77,375
625,871
455,120
1,847,964
2,634,875
344,875
2,895,610
323.441
168.770
750,245
9,230
$35,163 ,18 6
9,361
$28 ,830 ,53 7
this district. A national softw ood lumber price
index published by “ The Lumber Manufac
turer and Dealer” rose from the level of 30.52
registered in March and April, 1927, to 30.65
during May.
lu m b e r *
- F ir s t F iv e M o n th s —
M ay, 1927$
(board feet)
...6 1 0 ,6 6 7
P r o d u c t io n
S h ip m en ts .......... 614,170
O rd e rs ................. 602,802
U n fille d O r d e r s t 456,992
N o . o f M ills
R e p o rtin g î . .
144
A p r ., 1927
(boardfeet)
515,321
621,641
6 00,877
438,525
M a y, 1926
(board feet)
806,991
759,109
764,011
481,227
145
1927
(board feet)
2,501,651
2,837,428
2,934,001
............
1926
(board feet)
3,416,055
3,512,488
3,557,590
150
183
183
* A s r e p o r te d b y fo u r a s s o c ia tio n s , 000 o m itte d e x c e p t in ca se
o f n u m b e r o f m ills r e p o r tin g . f R e p o r t e d b y th ree a s s o c ia
t ion s. T h e fig u re s are n o t s t r ic t ly c o m p a r a b le w ith o th e r
fig u res a p p e a r in g in the table.
$A verage.
§ F ig u r e s n o t
s t r ic t ly c o m p a r a b le w ith th o s e r e p o r te d a y e a r a g o .
S o u r c e : N a tio n a l L u m b e r M a n u fa c tu r e r s A s s o c ia t io n .
Figures of national non-ferrous metal pro
duction, together with a guide to the propor
tionate importance of this district in such pro
duction, are presented in the follow ing table :
N O N -F E R R O U S M E T A L S
N ational P rodu ction
M ay,
M ay,
A p r .,
1926
1927
1927
C o p p e r (s h o r t t o n s ) (m in e
73,651
70,522
70,552
p r o d u c t io n )
....................
59,134
61,237
57,651
L e a d (s h o r t to n s ) (c r u d e ) t
53,703
51,626
51,296
Z in c (s h o r t t o n s ) ( s l a b ) .
S ilv e r ( o z .) (c o m m e r c ia l
b a r s ) ................................... 4,770,000 4,310,000 4,960,000
Per C en t
o f T otal
P rodu ced in
12th D i st.*
in 1926
64.1
43.5
13.3
69.7
^ I n c lu d in g all o f A r iz o n a , the fiv e so u th e a s te rn c o u n tie s o f
w h ic h are in the E le v e n th F e d e ra l R e s e r v e D is t r ic t , f l n c lu d e s fig u re s f o r M e x ic o .
Improvement in the statistical position of
the California petroleum industry was noted
during May, 1927. A close adjustment between
production and indicated consumption was ef
fected, and stored stocks decreased slightly.
During the month, gasoline prices advanced to
the levels prevailing prior to the March-April
price reductions, which grew out of competi
tive conditions within the industry.
M ay,
A p r il,
M ay,
P E T R O L E U M — C a liforn ia
Indicated
A v era ge
Stored
D aily
S tock s at
A v era ge
C on su m ption
End o f
D aily
M on th
P rodu ction (Shipm ents)
(barrels)
(barrels)
(barrels)
629,997
119,061,211
1927. . . 629,228
630,8430 119,085,070
1927. . . 649,7940
576,243
125,519,693
1926. . . 602,166
<— N e w W ells *->
D aily
P ro d u c
tion
(barrels)
52,575
80
81,432
105
15,738
58
N u m ber
O pened
Contrary to the usual seasonal expectation,
increased activity in flour milling was reported
during May, 1927, by principal milling factors
regularly submitting milling data to this bank.
For the third consecutive month, flour produc
tion exceeded that of the corresponding month
in 1926 and was in larger volume than the fiveyear (1922-1926) average output for the month.
Consumption of flour continued in excess of
production during May, and stocks of flour in
millers’ hands declined by more than the usual
seasonal amount. Stocks of both flour and
wheat were larger on May 31, 1927, than on
May 31, 1926.
F iv e -Y e a r
F L O U R M IL L IN G
O u tp u t ( b b l s .) . . .
S to ck st
F lo u r ( b b l s . ) . . .
W heat ( b u .) ...
M ay. 1927
452,641
378,330
2,354,538
(C) Bank Debits*
r - F irst F iv e M on th s
1927
M ay, 1927 M a y , 1926
$
106,605
$
19,595
20,312
B e r k e l e y ...............$ I
62,982
11,844
11,299
B o is e
....................
32,516
193,775
32,198
F r e s n o .................
254,429
48,193
L o n g B e a ch . . . .
50,231
4,821,743
882,385
794,586
L o s A n g e le s . . .
1,105,545
213,981
158,101
O a k la n d ...............
87,479
14,952
13,582
O g d e n ...................
216,073
40,828
37,642
P a sa d e n a ............
141,051
28,721
26,211
P h o e n ix ...............
8 22,080
179,868
182,313
P o r tla n d ...............
43,394
9,527
9,004
R e n o ......................
155,183
38,637
28,724
S a cra m e n to . . . .
340,271
64,948
66,953
S alt L a k e C ity . .
321,595
55,732
63,368
San D i e g o ..........
978,494
5,999,478
S an F r a n c is c o .. 1,152,899
23,691
127,548
24,432
S a n J o s e ............
1,018,295
200,714
202,958
S e a ttle .................
57,921
270,313
50,327
S p o k a n e ...............
25,463
26,863
132,605
S t o c k t o n ..............
44,112
223,514
43,487
T a c o m a ................
61,337
12,343
11,556
Y a k im a
...............
$3,156,163
$2,835,348 $16,505,295
D is t r ic t
..
1926
98,204
62,389
176,081
267,843
4,361,485
842,144
103,596
196,279
129,500
862,886
42,592
161,488
350,094
329,339
5,434,011
122,876
1,037,492
274,387
134,627
229,362
60,993
$15,277,668
$
A p r ., 1927
394,912
415,284
2,164,092
M a y , 1926
325,887
362,434
1,700,880
A v era ge
M ay,
1922-1926
300,879
446,438
1,817,547
t A t e n d o f m o n th .
Distribution and Trade
M ovement of goods through primary and
secondary channels, as indicated by figures of
railway carloadings and wholesale and retail
trade, was in slightly smaller volume during
May, 1927, than during May, 1926.
Value of sales at wholesale declined during
May, 1927, as compared with May, 1926, ac
cording to this bank’s index of wholesale trade,f
and was 3.7 per cent smaller than in April, 1927,
a greater than seasonal movement. The index,
when adjusted for the estimated usual seasonal
variations, stood at 97 during May, 1927 (19231925 monthly average= 100), 101 during May,
1926, and 99 during April, 1927. Declines over
the year period were recorded by indexes of
sales of agricultural implements, dry goods,
electrical supplies, furniture, hardware, and
paper products and stationery.
W H O L E S A L E T R A D E — T w elfth D istrict
In dex N u m bers o f Sales
(1923-1925 Monthly averaze=100)
S o u r c e : A m e r ic a n P e t r o le u m In s titu te .
O R evised.
*000 omitted.
45
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
Ju n e, 1927
A g r ic u ltu r a l I m p le m e n t s .
A u to m o b ile S u p p lie s . . . .
A u to m o b ile T ir e s ..............
D r u g s ........................................
D r y G o o d s .............................
E le c tr ic a l S u p p lies ............
F u rn itu r e ...............................
G ro c e r ie s ...............................
H a r d w a re ...............................
S h o e s ........................................
P a p e r an d S ta tio n e r y . . . .
A ll L in e s ................................
A ll L in e s A d ju s t e d * ..........
* F o r s e a so n a l v a r ia tio n .
N o. of
Firm s
15
13
16
6
26
10
16
20
20
8
22
172
172
M ay
130
94
139
103
77
101
89
90p
100
124
80
94
97
- 1927 A p r.
145
98
110
116
84
106
82
91
100
128
96
97
99
M ar.
159
95
119
118
89
102
101
88
103
116
100
100
98
1926
M ay
139
93
139
101
83
102
103
94
103
122
89
98
101
p P re lim in a r y .
Aggregate sales for the district, as reported
by 124 retail firms in seven lines of trade, were
1.6 per cent larger in value during May, 1927,
than during the same month a year ago. R e
ported sales were 4 per cent smaller during
May than during April, 1927. The latter detSee page 48 and chart on page 46.
46
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
crease was due chiefly to the fact that there
was one less trading day in May than in April.
INDEX
NUMBER
130
120
J u n e, 192 7
Livestock prices, as reflected by market quo
tations at Chicago during May, 1927, averaged
lower than during April, 1927. Prices for hogs
and sheep were also considerably lower than
during May, 1926, while monthly average
prices for cattle and lambs were higher than a
year ago. Recent quotations are shown in
Table “ E .” M onthly average prices of live
stock, with percentage changes from one
month ago and one year ago, are shown in the
follow ing table:
LIVESTOCK PRICES A T C H IC A G O
(Monthly averages per 100 pounds)
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
T R A D E A C T IV I T Y -T W E L F T H DISTRICT
Index numbers of sales of 28 department stores and 172 wholesale
firms, adjusted for seasonal variations (1923-1925 average = 100).
Latest figures, May, department stores, 113; wholesale firms, 97.
Value of sales of 44 department stores in
creased by slightly less than 1 per cent during
May, 1927, as compared with May, 1926. Dry
goods and w om en’s apparel stores reported in
creases in sales of 15 per cent and 6 per cent,
respectively, over the year period. Reports of 64
retail furniture dealers (including figures of 20
furniture departments of department stores)
showed an increase of 5.2 per cent in sales.
Stocks of 82 reporting stores at the close of
May, 1927, were 2.4 per cent smaller in value
than at the close of April, 1927, but were ap
proximately 2 per cent larger in value than at
the close of May, 1926. Stocks of 37 depart
ment stores on M ay 31, 1927, were 1 per cent
larger in value than on the same date a year ago.
-N E T SA L E S*January 1 to
May 31,1927,
May, 1927,
compared compared with
same period
with
in 1926
May, 1926
1.0
D e p a r tm e n t S to r e s . .
14.7
D r y G o o d s ....................
5.2
F u rn itu r e .......................
M e n ’ s an d W o m e n ’ s
A p p a r e l ...................... — 3.4
S h oes ................................
W o m e n ’s A p p arel . . .
A l l R e p o r t in g
1.6
S t o r e s t ....................
3.5 ( 38)
( 44)
(
7)
( 64)
10.0 ( 6)
( 10)
4.1 ( 10)
—1.1 ( 22)
6.0 ( 11)
(1 2 4 )
r-ST O C K S*^
End of Month,
May, 1927,
compared
with
May, 1926
—
2.4 ( 34)
2.0 ( 6)
—
1.0 (3 7 )
0.4 ( 3)
5.7 (2 4 )
7.7 ( 11)
7.1 ( 3)
14.1
3.6 (1 0 5 )
2.0 (8 1 )
(10)
* P e r c e n t a g e in c re a s e o r d e c r e a s e ( — ) . F ig u r e s in pa re n th e se s
in d ic a te n u m b e r o f s to re s r e p o r tin g . F ig u r e s o f id e n tica l
d e p a rtm e n ts o f d e p a rtm e n t s to r e s r e p o r t in g s u ch figu res
s e p a r a te ly in c lu d e d in sales c o m p a r is o n s o f fu rn itu re and
sh o e s to r e s , M a y , 1927, w ith M a y , 1926. t ln c l u d e s figu re s
o f m e n ’ s fu r n is h in g s s to r e s n o t s h o w n se p a ra te ly.
Prices
General prices fluctuated within relatively
narrow limits during May, The United States
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of wholesale
prices stood at 144.1 (1913 prices = 100) for
May, 1927, compared with 144.2 for April, 1927,
and 151.7 for May, 1926. Price quotations for
the district’s chief agricultural products fluc
tuated irregularly during May and early June
but generally ranged higher than in 1926.
H o g s .........
S h eep . . . .
Lam bs . . .
May,
1927
April,
1927
May,
1926
$10.94
9.67
7.50
15.16
$11.00
10.77
8.87
15.66
$ 9.24
13.27
9.88
14.82
Percentage changes from
One Month One Year
Ago
Ago
— 0.5
— 10.2
— 15.4
— 3.2
+
—
—
+
18.4
27.1
24.1
2.3
A t six markets of the Tw elfth District, prices
paid for best grade livestock, with the excep
tion of hogs, were generally higher during
May, 1927, than during May, 1926.
Chicago contract prices for September wheat
advanced steadily during May, 1927, and were
considerably above quotations in April, 1927.
Toward the close of the month, prices were
generally higher than a year ago. On June 3,
1927, quotations ranged from $1.41 ^ to $1.44)4
per bushel, compared with a range of from
$1.31% to $1.32% per bushel on May 6, 1927,
and $1.32% to $1.34 per bushel on June 4, 1926.
On June 14, 1927, quoted prices were from
$1.42% to $1.45% per bushel.
The cotton market again advanced during
May, 1927, continuing an upward tendency in
evidence since late February. A n average of
daily quotations for spot middling uplands cot
ton at New Orleans during the month was
approximately 8 per cent above the average
price for April, 1927, but 14 per cent below that
for May, 1926. For the week ending June 3,
1927, quotations for this grade of cotton ranged
from 16.22 to 16.59 cents per pound, compared
with a range of from 14.86 to 15.42 a month ago
and 17.96 to 18.04 cents per pound a year
ago. On June 16, 1927, spot middling uplands
cotton was quoted at 16.65 cents per pound.
(D)
D EPAR TM EN T STORE SALES*— Index Numbers
-100)
(1923-1925 Monthly Average=
Los
Angeles
Oak
land
( 5 )t
(4)+
Without Seasonal Adjustment
M a y , 1 9 2 7 ..
A p r il, 1 9 2 7 ..
M a r ., 1 9 2 7 ..
F e b ., 1 9 2 7 ..
M a y , 1 9 2 6 ..
.
.
.
.
.
I ll
121
116
105
106
110
118
103
96
114
San
Fran
cisco
Salt
Lake
City
Seattle
Spo
kane
( 5 )t
(5 )f
( 5 )f
(3 )t
112
111
98
91
116
110
97
85
80
114
104
102
90
84
99
92
100
87
80
94
110
113
93
95
108
116
120
103
102
112
96
101
98
95
100
105
105
100
108
100
102
103
100
95
102
113
120
111
109
110
Dis
trict
(28) t
With Seasonal Adjustment
M a y .,
A p r il,
M a r .,
F e b .,
M ay,
1 9 2 7 ..
1 9 2 7 ..
1 9 2 7 ..
1 9 2 7 ..
1 9 2 6 ..
.
.
.
.
.
117
128
120
116
113
119
127
116
118
122
^ D e s c r ip tio n o f th ese in d e x e s is g iv e n on p a g e 48. tF isrures in
p a re n th e se s in d ica te n u m b e r o f s to r e s. O n e s to r e in c lu d e d
in District figures not included in cities shown above.
J u n e, 1927
47
FEDERAL RESERVE AG EN T AT SAN FRANCISCO
W ool prices, as indicated by an average of 98
quotations on the Boston market, declined
from 64.44 cents per pound in April, 1927, to
63.54 in May, 1927. A year ago this average
stood at 66.90 cents per pound.
M onthly average prices of non-ferrous
metals continued to decline in May, 1927. A ver
age prices and percentage comparisons are
shown in the follow ing ta ble:
NO N -FERR O U S M ETALS PRICES
(Cents per pound)
S ilv e r* ( N e w Y o r k ) . .
C op p er (N e w Y o r k ) . .
L ead (N e w Y o r k ) . . . .
Z in c (S t. L o u i s ) ............
May,
1927
April,
1927
56.280
12.621
6.616
6.075
56.399
12.808
7.126
6.338
Percentage
changes from
May, OneMonth OneYear
1926
Ago
Ago
65.075
13.599
7.751
6.821
—
—
—
—
0.2
1.5
7.2
4.1
— 13.5
— 7.2
— 14.6
— 10.9
* C en ts p e r o u n c e .
Banking and Credit
Condition statements of reporting member
banks in the Tw elfth Federal Reserve District
revealed, during late May and early June, the
usual seasonal diminution in demand for credit.
For the four weeks ended June 15th, decreases
in total loans, total investments and total de
posits were reported, although there were
slight increases in loans on securities and in de
mand deposits. Substantial increases, as comMILLIONS OF DOLLARS
pared with a year ago, were reported in all of
the principal items of the condition statements
of these banks.
REPORTING M EM BER B A N K S -T w elfth District
(In millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses)
Condition /--------- Changes from --------- >
June 15, One Month
OneYear
1927
Ago
Ago
( + = increase. — = decrease. )
1,310
T o t a l L o a n s .......................... , .
C o m m e r c ia l L o a n s ............
969
341
L o a n s o n S e c u r itie s ........... . .
I n v e s tm e n ts ..........................
501
T o t a l L o a n s a n d In v e s tm e n ts 1,810
N e t D e m a n d D e p o s it s . . .
793
T im e D e p o s it s ......................, . .
949
B o r r o w in g s fro m F e d e ra l
30
R e s e rv e B a n k .................
— 2 (0 .2 )
— 6 (0 .6 )
+ 4 (1 .1 )
— 7 (1 .3 )
— 9 (0 .5 )
+ 5 (0 .7 )
— 14 (1 .5 )
+ 105 ( 8 .7 )
+ 55 ( 6 .0 )
+ 50 (1 7 .2 )
+ 30 ( 6.4 )
+ 135 ( 8 .1 )
+ 32 ( 4 .2 )
+ 101 (1 1 .8 )
—
+
2 (6 .4 )
11 (5 4 .6 )
Demands upon the Federal Reserve Bank of
San Francisco decreased during May, and total
discounts, at 31 million dollars on May 25th,
were at the lowest level reported since Febru
ary, 1926. Volum e of bills discounted expanded
during the first half of June and was larger at
mid-June than one year ago, although still be
low early May figures. Total earning assets of
the Reserve Bank increased during the MayJune period, however, as the decline in dis
counts was more than offset by increased hold
ings of United States government securities.
The reserve ratio of the Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco (ratio of reserves to deposits
and Federal reserve notes in actual circulation)
rose during late May and, at 81.5 on May 25th,
was the highest reported since October, 1924.
FED ER AL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRA N C ISCO
(in millions of dollars, percentage changes in parentheses)
Condition
/-------- Changes fromOne Year
One Month
June 15,
Ago
Ago
1927
(-h — increase. — = decrease).
T o t a l B ills an d S e c u r it ie s . . .
B ills D is c o u n t e d ....................
U n ite d S ta te s S e c u r it ie s . . . .
B ills B o u g h t .............................
T o t a l R e s e r v e s ........................
T o t a l D e p o s it s ........................
F e d e ra l R e s e r v e N o te
C ir c u la tio n
...........................
M EM B ER BANK CR EDIT—T W E L F T H DISTR ICT
Figures for about 65 member banks in leading cities, as of last
Wednesday of each month. Latest figures, June 15th.
96
40
39
17
264
175
172
+ 5 ( 5 .7 )
— 2 ( 4 .0 )
+ 8 (2 6 .6 )
— 1 ( 7 .4 )
— 18 ( 6 .4 )
— 5 ( 2 .8 )
-1 0
( 5 .4 )
—
+
—
—
—
+
11
3
5
8
4
4
(1 0 .4 )
( 8 .0 )
(1 2 .3 )
(3 2 .3 )
( 1.6)
( 2 .4 )
— 19 ( 9 .8 )
The prevailing rate of interest on the bulk
of prime commercial paper in the principal
financial centers of the district ranged from 4
to 6 per cent at mid-June, compared with a
range of 5 to 6 per cent in June, 1926, and 5 to 7
per cent in June, 1925. The discount rate at
the Federal Reserve Bank has stood at 4 per
cent since November 23, 1925.
(E) Commodity Prices—
C om m od ity
W h o le s a le P r ic e s (U . S. B u rea u o f L a b o r — 1913 p r ice s — 1 0 0 ). ...................
P u r c h a sin g P o w e r o f F a rm P r o d u c t s ( U . S. D e p t, o f A g r i c u l t u r e ) * . . . .
C a ttle (N a t iv e B e e f ) . .W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ....................................
L a m b s ............................... W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ....................... ..............
H o g s ................................... W e e k ly a v e r a g e p r ic e at C h ic a g o ....................................
W h e a t ............................... C h ic a g o c o n t r a c t p r ic e f o r S e p te m b e r w h e a t ..............
W o o l ..................................A v e r a g e o f 98 q u o t a t io n s at B o s t o n ...............................
O r a n g e s .............................V a le n c ia s , F a n c y , w h o le s a le at S a n F r a n c i s c o . . . .
P r u n e s ............................... S iz e 4 0 /5 0 in 25-lb. b o x e s , f. o . b . C a l i f o r n i a . . . .
R a is in s ............................... T h o m p s o n S e e d le s s , b u lk , in 25-lb. b o x e s , f. o. b.
C a lifo r n ia ................................................................... ................
C a n n ed P e a c h e s ............ C h o ic e C lin g , s lic e d , 2 ^ s , f. o . b. C a lifo r n ia .............
B u t t e r ............................... 92 s c o r e at S an F r a n c i s c o ..................................................
C o p p e r ................................E le c t r o ly t ic , m o n th ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k . . . . . .
L e a d .................................... M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k .........................................
S i l v e r ..................................M o n t h ly a v e r a g e at N e w Y o r k ..........................................
L u m b e r ( S o f t w o o d ) . .W e e k ly I n d e x , U n it e d S t a t e s f .........................................
Unit
100 lb s.
100 lbs.
100 lb s.
bu.
lb.
box
lb .
lb .
doz.
lb .
lb .
lb.
oz.
June 3 , 1927
One Month Ago
144.1
83.8
$10.75
14.20
9.20
1 .4 1 ^ -1 .4 4 5 4
63.540
$ 4 .7 5 -5 .2 5
. 0 7 K - . 0 7U
144.2
82.8
$11.00
16.25
10.15
1 .3 1 ^ -1 .3 2 ^
64.440
N o t q u o te d
.0 7 ^ -.0 7 ^
.0 7V-Z
1 .8 5 -2 .1 0
.41
12.6210
6.6160
56.2800
30.65
.0754
1 .8 5 -2 .1 0
.41
12.8080
7.1260
56.3990
30.52
One Year A
151.7
86.8
$9.60
16.00
13.90
1 . 3 2 ^ - 1 .3 4
66.900
$ 4 .0 0 -5 .2 5
.0 8 ^ -0 9
.07*4
2 .2 0 -2 .3 5
.40 y2
13.5990
7.7510
65.0750
31.46
* Ratio of farm prices (August, 1909-July, 1914 prices=100) to wholesale prices of non-agricultural commodities (1910-1914 prices=
100). fA s published by ‘ ‘The Lumber Manufacturer and Dealer.”
48
R e v is e d
In d e x e s
The Division of Analysis and Research of the
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has
revised its indexes of bank debits, retail trade
(department store sales), and wholesale trade
in the Tw elfth Federal Reserve District, and
revised data are published, for the first time, in
this issue of the M onthly Review. It is desira
ble that the changes made in the indexes be
given more extended notice than is possible in
the text of the Review, and a brief statement
concerning them is herewith presented.
B a se
P er io d
Indexes previously used by this bank were,
for convenience and because of the availability
of data, related to the year 1919. The daily or
monthly average of the series during the year
1919 was used as the base for the index— 100—
and data for other months or years were ex
pressed as percentages of that base. In the new
indexes, daily or monthly averages for the
years 1923-1925 are used as bases. The new base
period has several advantages over the one
used h eretofore:
(1) It gives a broader base which is not so
apt to be influenced by exceptional con
ditions prevailing in any one year.
(2) It was relatively free from the wide price
fluctuations and rapid changes in busi
ness activity which characterized the
year 1919.
(3) Its use permits inclusion of data which
were not available in 1919, thus making
the indexes more comprehensive and
increasing their accuracy.
(4) Its use facilitates direct comparison of
current conditions with conditions dur
ing a period more recent and therefore
more familiar than the year 1919.
The use of the years 1923-1925 as the base for
the revised indexes does not mean that those
years are assumed to be “ normal” years. They
have been selected, after a thorough study of
available data, as the most desirable and most
convenient years upon which to erect current
indexes, a considerable amount of new and
valuable business information having become
available beginning in 1923.*
B a n k
J u n e, 192 7
M O N T H L Y REVIEW OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS
D e b its
The indexes of bank debits, presented in the
table on page 42 and chart on page 43, are based
upon daily average debits to individual ac
counts as reported by banks to clearing houses
in 20 of the principal cities of the district. The
indexes, both with and without adjustment for
seasonal variation,f are expressed as percen
tages of the 1923-1925 daily average. The use of
o f
T ra d e
A c t iv it y
daily averages eliminates those fluctuations in
the index which are due to differences in the
length of months, and the varying number of
Sundays in different months, and makes some
allowance for the irregular occurrence of holi
days.
R eta il
T ra d e
( d e p a r tm e n t
sto re
sa le s)
Previously published indexes of retail trade
in this district included figures of sales of dry
goods stores, departmentized specialty shops,
and men’s and wom en’s apparel stores. They
were based upon total monthly sales and were
expressed as percentages of the 1919 monthly
average. Figures of department stores, only,
are used in the new indexes which are based
upon daily average sales expressed as percent
ages of the 1923-1925 daily average. These series
have been constructed both with and without
adjustment for seasonal variation.f Indexes
for recent months are presented in the table
and the seasonally adjusted index is shown
graphically in the chart on page 46.
W h o le sa le
T ra d e
In June, 1926, certain preliminary indexes of
sales in ten lines of trade at wholesale were
constructed. Experimental construction of a
composite index, based upon data of all ten
lines combined, was also undertaken and com
pleted. These indexes were expressed as per
centages of 1919 monthly averages and were
not adjusted for seasonal variation. Their
behavior during the past year indicates that
considerable confidence may be placed in such
figures as a record of wholesale trade within
the district.
Revision and improvement of the prelimi
nary indexes have just been completed. The
revised indexes, based upon total monthly sales,
are expressed as percentages of the 1923-1925
monthly average. Use of the latter base period
instead of the year 1919, as heretofore, has per
mitted inclusion of figures of a number of firms
and of one additional line, electrical supplies,$
not included in the earlier indexes.
The indexes for individual lines are based
upon actual sales and are not adjusted for sea
sonal variation. The composite indexes are
based upon total sales of approximately 180
firms in eleven lines of trade. One composite
index is based upon actual monthly sales and
shows fluctuations in the actual value of such
sales, and the other composite index has been
adjusted for estimated usual seasonal varia
tion.f The indexes are presented in the table
and the seasonally adjusted index is shown in
the chart on page 46.
* I n n ew in d e x e s p r e p a re d o r b e in g p r e p a r e d b y the F e d e ra l R e s e r v e B o a r d and o th e r F e d e ra l r e s e r v e b a n k s , th e y e a r s 1923-1925 h a ve
be e n u se d as the b a se p e r io d . t T h e s ig n ific a n c e o f se a so n a l v a r ia t io n and m e th o d s o f a llo w in g fo r its in flu e n c e w e re e x p la in e d in
an a r tic le e n title d ‘ ‘ S e a s o n a l V a r ia t io n in B u s in e s s A c t i v it y ,” a p p e a r in g in th e D e c e m b e r , 1926, M o n t h ly R e v ie w o f B u s in e s s C o n
d itio n s in the T w e lft h F e d e ra l R e s e r v e D is t r ic t . R e p rin ts o f th is a r tic le m a y b e o b ta in e d u p o n re q u e s t. $ T h e lin e s o f tra d e in
c lu d e d in the p re se n t in d e x e s a r e : a g r ic u ltu r a l im p le m e n ts, a u t o m o b ile su p p lie s, a u t o m o b ile tire s, d r u g s , d r y g o o d s , e le c t r ic a l
su p p lie s, fu r n itu r e , g r o c e r ie s , h a rd w a re , s h o e s , an d p a p e r and sta tio n e ry .
@FedFRASER