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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND General Business and Agricultural Conditions in the Fifth Federal Reserve District By C A L D W E L L H A R D Y , Chairman and Federal Reserve A gen t RICHMOND, VIRGINIA, NOVEMBER 30, 1921 construction work. The Business during October textile field is occupied on 1921 made a favorable con C O N TE N TS new orders, and prices have trast with business during adjusted themselves suffi October of last year. A t ciently to allow a fair profit this season in 1920 trade was Introduction to the mills. Clothing and depressed and was growing Condition o f M em ber Banks shoe prices have declined more sluggish day by day, Debits to Individual Account materially since October 19but now signs point to a M onthly Clearings 20, and retailers are no gradual awakening in the Business Failures longer faced with h i g h business world. In October Labor priced stock for which there 1920 a crop holding move Textiles is no sale, as was the case ment, especially of cotton, Clothing and Shoes last year. Food prices have was well under way, and Foods declined enough since Oc only a limited quantity was T obacco tober 1920 to meet wage re put on the market in the face Cotton ductions made within the o f rapidly falling prices Building Construction year. The tobacco manu offered for a crop that had W holesale Trade facturers are receiving their cost more to raise than any Retail Trade usual orders for domestic previous one. This fall the consumption, though foreign prices have been higher than demand is negligible. Build during the summer months, and with a new crop that was made very economi ing operations are practically equal to any previous cally the growers have been selling sufficient cot month^ this year, and are more than double the ton to meet their current debts, and incom e cases operations during October 1920. Wholesale trade have been making payments on obligations carried in groceries, dry goods, boots and shoes, hardware over from last fall. Tobacco has been bringing and furniture is fairly good, and is steadily im good prices for medium and fine grades. With proving, and retail trade is taking on the usual fall the improved condition of agriculture, banks have briskness. Collections are good on all accounts been able to liquidate some of the frozen loans made this year, although somewhat slow on obli that have troubled them for so many months, and gations carried over from 1920. The most encouraging feature of business at to add to their reserves and strengthen their po present is the optimistic attitude shown on every sitions. Debits to Individual Account at banks in hand. At this season last year buyers and sellers clearing house cities compare favorably with pre were dead-locked, the buyers insisting upon price vious months and with last year, and indicate a reductions that meant losses to many merchants, steady improvement in the trade of the District. and the merchants determined to secure prices Clearing house figures are increasing, and business that would at least pay expenses of operating their failures are less in total liabilities involved than business. Each group was complaining of the during the corresponding month of 1920. Unem other, and pessimism was the order of the day. This ployment is still troublesome, but is better than fall the friction seems to have disappeared with a it might be because of the increasing volume of steady increase in business. CONDITION OF SEVENTY-EIGHT REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN SELECTED CITIES. ITEMS 1. Total Loans and Discounts (exclusive of rediscounts) _____________ ____ $ 2. Total Investments in Bonds and Se curities _________________________ 3. Total Loans and Investments----------4. Reserve Balance with Federal Reserve Bank _______________ ___________ 5. Cash in Vaults______________________ 6. Demand Deposits-------------------------- — 7. Time Deposits _____________________ 8. Discounts with Federal Reserve Bank * Includes some miscellaneous investments. November 2. 1921 406,348,000 October 5, 1921 $ 405,391,000 November 5, 1920 $ 490,354,000* 120.922.000 527.270.000 124.899.000 530.290.000 76,633,000** 566.987.000 29.163.000 13.430.000 290.629.000 123.563.000 57.042.000 30.732.000 14.089.000 287.413.000 117.646.000 66.983.000 35.297.000 18.665.000 339.645.000 108.539.000 76.410.000 ** Government Securities only. We give, in the table above, comparative figures showing the principal items of condition for seventy-eight identical reporting member banks, located in thirteen cities of the Fifth Reserve Dis trict, at the close of business November 2, 1921, October 5, 1921, and November 5, 1920, thus giving comparisons for the current month with the preceding month this year and the corresponding month last year. All items are comparable except numbers 1 and 2, which include different kinds of assets in 1920 and 1921. Comparing the figures at the close of business November 2, 1921 with those of November 5, 1920, decreases are found in all items except number 7, Time Deposits, in which item there is shown an increase of $15,024,000 or 13.8% within the year. The Time Deposit total reported for November 2,1921 is the highest figure yet reached by the banks that furnish the weekly statements, a very striking development at a time of much unemployment and part time work. The percentages shown in all items except number seven are as follow s: total Loans and Investments decreased from $566,987,000 as of November 5, 1920 to $527,270,000 as of November 2, 1921, a decline of 7.0% ; Reserve Balance with the Federal Reserve Bank decreased from $35,297,000 to $29,163,000, a decline of 17.4%; Cash in Vaults decreased from $18,665,000 to $13,430,000, a decline of 28.0%; Demand Deposits decreased from $339,645,000 to $290,629,000, a decline of 14.4%; and Discounts with the Federal Reserve Bank de creased from $76,410,000 to $57,042,000, a decline of 25.3%. Comparing the figures as of November 2, 1921, with those reported as of October 5, 1921, four weeks earlier this year, increases are seen in items one, six and seven, but all others show declines. Total Loans and Discounts show a small increase of two-tenths of one percent, but Demand De posits increased 1.1% within the four weeks, and Time Deposits rose 5,0%. Tdtal Investments in Bonds and Securities declined 3.2%; Reserve Balance with Federal Reserve Bank declined 5.1%; Cash in Vaults declined 4.7%; and Discounts with the Federal Reserve Bank declined 14.8%. In view of the declining tendency in the prices of cotton, corn, wheat and live stock during October the amount of liquidation evidenced by the figures given above is encouraging. DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNT IN CLEARING HOUSE CITIES. For the Weeks Ending CITIES November 2, 1921 Baltimore, Md. ----------------------------------- $ Charleston, S. C - -------------------------------Charlotte, N. C— -------------------------------Columbia, S. C. ---------------------------------Greenville, S. C________________________ Huntington, W . Va-----------------------------Norfolk, Va____________________________ Raleigh, N. C--------------------------------------Richmond, Va. _______________________ Washington, D. C--------------------------------Wilmington, N. C.____________________ Ij Totals for 9 cities------------------------- $ Totals for 11 cities----------------------- November 3, 1920 October 5, 1921 115.282,000 5.899.000 6.565.000 5.357.000 3,700,000* 6.873.000 14.827.000 3.700.000 30.033.000 37.904.000 5,482,000* $ 226,440,000 235,622,000 $ 112,468,000 6,186,000 6.554.000 6.591.000 4,582,000* 4.393.000 15.044.000 4,000,000 28.974.000 39.948.000 5,837,000* $ 224,158,000 234,577,000 $ 110,483,000 6,220,000 8,206000 6,168,000 5.945.000 17.044.000 3,900,000 31.108.000 38.052.000 227,126,000 * Not included in Totals for 9 cities. Debits to Individual Account in nine clearing house centers for the week ending November 2, 1921 totaled $226,440,000, compared with a total of $227,126,000 reported from the same cities for the week ending November 3, 1920, a decline for the 1921 week of three-tenths of one percent. T h e average decline between the two dates reported by 155 leading centers for the entire United States was 1.4%, which, according to the weekly statement of the Federal Reserve Board, is the smallest decrease reported for any week since January 5. The insignificance of the decrease is partly accounted for by the fact that the week ending November 3, 1920 included a holiday, Election Day, which natural ly lowered the debits for the week. As compared with the week ending October 5, 1921, the week ending November 2, 1921 shows an increase of 1.0% in the Fifth District, a very encouraging increase in view of the fact that the pay ments made during the week ending October 5, 1921 included many end-of-quarter settlements that do not appear in the figures for the week ending November 2, 1921. The debits for the current month indicate a very fair volume of business transactions, and reflect the moderate revival in trade that has developed during the past two or three months. MONTHLY CLEARINGS. No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 1921 Baltimore, Md. ___ Charleston, S. C. — Charleston, W. Va. » Charlotte, N. C. __ Columbia, S. C. ___ Frederick, Md. ___ Greensboro, N. C . _ Greenville, S. C . __ Hagerstown, M d .__ Huntington, W. Va. Newport News, Va. Norfolk, Va. ______ Raleigh, N. C. ____ Richmond, V a . ____ Spartanburg, S. C. . Washington, D. C. . Totals_________ & For Month of October CITIES 1920 $ 314,966,372 11,043,724 16,069,181* 11,745,668 9,684,339 1,724,658 6,202,075 7,947,272 2,913,325 6,720,549 1,727,697 31,198,653 6,814,121 195,203,431 4,361,796 76,980,875 $ 689,234,555 * Not Included in Totals '1 w Increase or * Decrease Per Cent of Increase or Decrease 440,313,214 14,379,405 $ 125,346,842— 3,335,681— 28.5— 23.2— ~12,796,248 12,727,097 2,867,841 6,900,594 8,780,965 3,193,171 8,796,927 3,231,593 39,221,215 6,057,361 244,107,162 4,757,431 75,775,063 $ 883,905,287 1,050^580— 3,042,758— 1,143,183— 698,519— 833,693— 279,846— 2,076,378— 1,503*896— 8,022,562— 756,760 48,903,731— 395,635— 1,205,812 $ 194,670,732— 8.2— 23.9— 39.9— 10.1— 9.5— 8.8— 23.6— 46.5— 20.5— 12.5 2 0 .0 8.3— 1.6 2 2 .0 - $ No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 _ 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 | — Denotes decrease this year. The table shows bank clearings reported by sixteen clearing house centers in the Fifth Dis trict for the month of October 1921, together with comparative figures from fifteen of the cities for the corresponding month of 1920. The table shows the actual amount of increase or decrease in clearings in each city, and the percentage gain or loss in October 1921 compared with October 1920. An examination of the figures for the two months shows a decrease from $883,905,287 reported for October 1920 to $689,234,555 reported for October 1921, a decline of $194,670,732, or 22.0%, In creases were reported this year by Raleigh and Washington, this being the second month in succession that these two cities have shown higher figures than for the corresponding month of 1920. In com parison with the corresponding month last year the decline of 22% in October 1921 under clearings for October 1920 is the lowest percentage decline shown for any month this year since February. BUSINESS FAILURES IN THE TWELVE FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS City and District Number 1921 1920 Boston, F irst__________________ New York, Second_____________ Philadelphia, Third________ ____ Cleveland, Fourth_____________ Richmond, Fifth - _____________ Atlanta, Sixth__ ______________ Chicago, Seventh _____________ St. Louis, Eighth----------------- — Minneapolis, Ninth____________ Kansas City, Tenth____________ Dallas, Eleventh ______________ San Francisco, Twelfth----------- - 135 350 77 177 109 153 230 88 70 76 109 139 59 275 27 69 58 38 122 47 16 41 42 129 128.8 27.3 185.2 156.5 87.9 302.6 88.5 87.2 337.5 85.4 159.5 7.8 Totals____________________ 1,713 923 85.6 1920 Per Cent of Increase or Decrease 937,595 15,462,866 2,902,609 1,933,886 1,644,702 613,307 6,259,566 1,280,507 83,769 775,366 2,947,957 4,071,529 65.3 13.3 171.8 35.1 8.1— 759.5 6.5— 12.7— 2,088.3 158.0 16.7 15.6— Liabilities Per Cent Increase 1921 $ 1,550,137 17,525,697 7,890,928 2,613,018 1,511.141 5.271,140 5.853,226 1,117,815 1,833,103 2,000,108 2,455,126 3,437,220 $ 53,058,659 $ $ 38,913,659 36.4 We give herewith the table reported by Dun’s Review, showing the number of failures in the twelve Federal Reserve Districts for October, 1921 and 1920, with percentages of increase or de crease in both the number and the aggregate liabilities involved. The report shows a percentage in crease in the number of failures in the Fifth District of 87.9%, October 1921 having witnessed 109 in comparison with 58 during the corresponding month last year. The percentage increase f o r t h e United States as a whole averaged 85.6%, a slightly lower figure than for the Fifth District. In liabilities involved, the Fifth District record is much better than the national average, October 1921 totals for this District being $1,511,141 in comparison with $1,644,702 reported for the District in October 1920, a decrease this year of 8.1% in comparison with a national increase in liabilities of 36.4% between the same two months. All districts in the United States show increases in the num ber of failures during October 1921, but decreases in total liabilities are reported for four Districts, namely, Richmond, Chicago, St. Louis and San Francisco. The highest percentage increase in both the number of failures and the total of liabilities involved is reported from the Ninth, or Minneapolis District, and the second highest increase in both number and liabilities is reported from the Sixth, or Atlanta District. The average liability per failure in October in the Fifth District was $13,863, and in the United States was $30,974. LABOR—The labor situation in the Fifth District has changed little within the past month, but the changes reflect a slight increase in unemployment in the cities. The situation appears to be that the surplus labor in the country and smaller towns has gone to the larger cities in the hope of se curing employment temporarily. The leading cities, that did not previously have them, are opening employment bureaus, and are making every effort to secure work for unemployed persons for at least a few days each week, to tide them over the present depressions. In the Carolinas, with the ex ception of the larger cities, the conditions have improved with the resumption of operations in a num ber of the important lumber plants, and the taking on of additional help in many kinds of manufacturing establishments. In the cities the prospect of seasonally inclement weather has tended to slow down outdoor work, street improvements, etc., which has naturally lessened the demand for labor, especial ly unskilled. Oyster shippers on the coast are employing a normal number of men. Tobacco manu facturers are operating full time, and are using their usual quota of workers. Coal mines are steadi ly increasing their output, and are therefore giving employment to more men or longer hours to the men previously employed. Railroads are taking on in certain departments some of the employees laid off several months ago. All correspondents comment freely upon the increased stability and effi ciency of the workers in comparison with their attitude eighteen months or two years ago. TEXTILES—The increased interest in cotton textiles mentioned in our Review for August and September continued through October and early November, though the new business showed a more cautious tendency than during the previous two months. Our correspondents write that uncertainty as to the outcome in Congress of the present tax and tariff legislation has retarded the developing business revival, and has brought about a hesitancy on the part of buyers to commit themselves further until these questions are settled. All of our correspondents agree that some profit is being made on the present output of the Southern textile mills, though they claim that this profit is very small. They appear to feel that the business cannot really recover its normal position until cotton prices become more definitely fixed, in order that mills can calculate what it is going to cost them to manufacture cloth and buyers can be reasonably certain that future changes will not make it possible for competitors to secure goods at a figure that would enable them to undersell the buyers who placed orders ahead for their needs. The demand in the cloth market is somewhat more active than in that of yarn, and cloth manufacturers are realizing better prices for their output. In wollens, the continued warm weather through October has delayed the fall purchasing, but the business gen erally has been slowly improving for the past four or five months. The quotations for raw wool, dyes and chemicals show a tendency to advance and the buyers of woolens are willing to place future orders. A large woolen manufacturer writes that the industry cannot return to normal, however, until some way is worked out which will enable consumers to buy good clothing at lower prices than is now possible in the retail stores. CLOTHING AND SHOES—The clothing stores are getting a fair amount of business at present, and are selling fall clothing at considerable reductions from last fall’s prices, but at about the same prices asked for goods in the spring of 1921. The same statements apply to the retail shoe business, in which prices are practically the same as those quoted for the same quality goods last spring. Price reductions in clothing have been very uneven, some articles having declined sharply, while others have declined very little. A letter from one of the largest wholesale clothing firms in the District reports that their October business was thirty-seven percent, greater than October 1920 and nine percent, greater than October 1919, which was the largest October business in their history. They attribute their record business to the increase in the sales of cotton and to better prices for tobacco. They report collections reasonably good, and anticipate better business during November and December this year than they “had during the same two months of 1920. FOODS—The United States department of labor reports that retail food prices between Sep tember 15 and October 15, 1921, declined 1 percent, in Richmond and Washington, but remained the same in Baltimore. For the year ending October 15, 1921, decreases were reported amounting to 24 percent, in Baltimore, 22 percent, in Richmond, and 20 percent, in Washington. As compared with the average cost in the year 1913, the retail cost of food on October 15, 1921, showed an increase of 65 percent, in Richmond, 63 percent, in Washington, and 54 percent, in Baltimore. With the coming of cool weather, the business of the meat packers has picked up sharply, and they report a decided increase in their business during the past month. The oyster packers and ship pers are active, and orders for their product are plentiful, but they write that the supply of oysters is limited and the quality rather poor. Wholesale prices for oysters are slightly lower than they were in the fall of 1920. Wholesale grocers report business fair, except in the cities and towns largely dependent upon railroad and shop forces. The failure of the fruit crop in this and other nearby Dis tricts has had a stimulating effect on the demand fo r vinegars, jellies, preserves, and other fruit products. The approach of Thanksgiving and Christmas is reflected in the usual upward trend in prices for certain goods, such as turkeys, chickens, eggs, butter, etc., but prices of staples remain steady. TOBACCO—The tobacco markets of North Carolina and Virginia were active during October, and fairly large sales were reported, but the first two weeks of November witnessed still larger sales because of better weather for the preparation of the leaf for market. The Commissioner of Agri culture of Virginia has announced through the press that 9,274,223 pounds of bright leaf were sold in Virginia during October, and says that a total of 10,972,633 pounds have been sold this season, to No vember 1, for an average price of $27.17 a hundred, or more than $3 higher than the average price realized during the corresponding period last year.During the week ending October 29, Danville mar ket sold 1,315,371 pounds for an average of $28.28, the highest price paid for an individual lot being 97 cents per pound. During the same week the market at Wilson handled 2,476,690 pounds, at an average of $31.53; the Winston-Salem market sold about 1,500,000 pounds, at an average of about $35.25; and the Martinsville market sold 57,786 pounds, at an average of $34.24. Prices in Lynch burg during the same week varied from $6 a hundred for common lugs to $54 for good leaf. After the rains of about the first of November, the grades coming on the markets have improved somewhat, and better prices have been realized than those quoted above. Fancy tobaccos and wrappers are in strong demand, some of the wrappers having brought as high as $1 per pound during the firsft week in November. The large amount of low grade tobacco in this year’s crop, is keeping the average price down. There is a poor demand for this, but medium and fine grades are advancing steadily and buyers appear to be anxious to secure all good leaf offered. The demand for manufactured tobacco has been as strong during October as during any earlier month this year. Our correspondents report that orders from agricultural sections have increased. Export demand continues light, most of the orders coming from Latin-America. The offering of new brands at prices lower than those for established goods continues. Supplies used in the manu facture of tobacco products are readily obtainable. COTTON—The development in the cotton market in October were disappointing to Southern interests. The price rise that began at the end of June and continued through July and August stopped in September, and a decline commenced during the second week in October. The decline first began after the Government’s announcement of a crop condition of 42.2% of normal as of September 25, with an estimated production of 6,537,000 bales. As mentioned in our Review last month, it had been anticipated that a lower production forecast would be issued, and in consequence the release of the report found the market over-bought. The price fell from an average of 20.05 cents per pound during the week ending October 1 to an average of 16.63 cents for the week ending November 12. It is inter esting to recall that a similar decline occurred between the corresponding dates last year, the price decreasing from 29 cents at the begining of October to 18.5 cents for the week ending November 13, 1920. The decline began last year at the first of July, however, and was more precipitate than in 1921. There were further declines this year early in November when the Census Bureau issued its Novem ber GinnerV Report, which showed ginnings of 6,646,136 bales to November 1, this being 109,136 bales more than the estimated total production for the year as announced by the Department of Agri culture on the basis of the September 25 crop condition. All reports received by us this month in dicate that the percentage of the total crop ginned before November 1 is probably the greatest on record. In the Fifth District the crop in the southern half of South Carolina was practically a failure, due to the ravages of the boll weevil. From Columbia northward the weevil did serious damage, but a fair crop has been gathered in that section and in North Carolina. However, the scanty use of fertilizer and unseasonable weather, together with acreage reduction, were greater factors in re ducing production in upper South Carolina and in North Carolina. Some of the leading citizens of South Carolina are making vigorous efforts to distribute to all planters information in regard to successful farming under boll weevil conditions; are calling at tention to the necessity for producing at home sufficient foodstuffs for family consumption and mainte nance of live stock; to the importance of proper fertilization and seed selection; and to the best methods of fighting the bool weevil itself. BUILDING OPERATIONS FOR THE MONTHS OF OCTOBER, ld2l AND 1920 Permit s Issued New Construction CITIES o’ 1921 1920 fc M aryland 1 Baltimore............ 2 Cumberland.............. 3 Frederick.. ............... Virginia 4 Lynchburg................ 5 N o r f o l k ............... 6 Richmond............. 7 Roanoke.................... 8 Staunton................... W est V irginia 9 C harleston.............. 10 Huntington**........... 11 Parkersburg............. N orth Carolina 12 Asheville ................. 13 Charlotte.................. 14 D urham ................... 15 Greensboro ............. 16 High Point................ 17 Wilmington............... 18 Winston-Salem......... South Carolina 19 Charleston................ 20 Columbia.................. 21 Greenville................. 22 Spartanburg.............. D ist. of Columbia 23 Washington.. . . Totals......... 425 28 4 Alterations Increase or Per Cent, of Decrease, Total Increase Valuation or o Decrease fc Repairs New 1921 1920 1921 1920 1921 1920 358 1,219 1,083 $1,170,000 $ 856,800 $ 606,000 $ 900,200 $ 14,587 138,875 11 13 20 8,120 10,282 2 28,435 1 0 2,400 0 1,100 19,000 122,126 24,935 1.1 491.1 712.4 1 2 3 17 71 105 *170 6 1 89 52 *69 1 17 39 98 8 20 97 7 0 69,750 5,754— 201,745 196,078 19,190 850.6 2.1— 57.3 296.0 639.7 4 5 6 7 8 86 *153 42 14 9 9 10 11 41,650 214,800 464,515 *262,318 6,890 100 230,819 279,473 *66,240 3,000 36,300 55,330 89,368 8,100 45,065 72,665 15,300 0 160,873 *423,193 25,000 117,950 9,425 5,050 47,298 38.5 15,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 33.3 126,200 90,460 12,900 67,000 *38,100 72,200 101,100 11,268 64,680 4,850 5,115 4,575 8,500 31,695 26,335 3,175 1,210 17,600 1,000 25,070 45,999— 221,365 57,540 129,135 34,025 2,700— 29,905 30.2— 12 236.4 13 407.8 14 152.6 15 89.3 16 3.7— 17 23.7 18 8,449 42,114 5,695 15,860 98,391— 20,525 232,965 25,581 42.4— 19 21.2 20 642.8 21 45.6 22 64 38 26 31 23 13 50 29 17 3 13 *12 14 23 17 6 6 12 9 5 95 40 5 4 7 2 71 95,268 250,320 66,800 208,620 67,550 62,000 124,380 27 27 24 58 25 4 15 15 26 96 28 24 12 78 15 21 113,231 80,900 254,560 77,321 223,500 54,500 30,550 40,280 20,327 36,239 14,650 4,400 4*1 3,128,315 600,350 256,293 259 1552 100 . 500 2Q5,658 2,578,600 894 2,231 1,975 $7,042,621 $3,043,509 $1,297,435 $1,409,628 $3,886,919 •Includes both new and repairs. 319.9 23 87.3% — Denotes decrease. ‘ ^Huntington 1920 figures not available. Permits for new construction issued in twenty-two of the leading cities of the Fifth District during October 1921 totaled 1,552 compared with 894 issued in the same cities in October 1920, a gain this year of 658, or 73.6%. Total valuation of new work provided for in October amounted to $7,042,621 compared with $3,043,509 for October 1920, an increase this year of $3,999,112, or 131.4%. Permits for alterations and repairs issued in October 1921 totaled 2, 231 compared with 1,975 in Octo ber 1920, an increase this year of 256, or 13%. Total valuation for repair work in October 1921 totaled $1,297,435, compared with $1,409,628 in October 1920, a loss this year of $112,193, or 8%. In combined valuation for both new work and alterations or repairs, October 1921 witnessed a total of $8,340,056, compared with $4,453,137 in October 1920, an increase this year of $3,886,919, or 87.3%. Considering that building operations usually decrease in late summer, the record of October is gratifying. Reports indicate that most of the work provided for in October represents residence construction. Lynchburg, Virginia, reports 9 residences planned, Richmond, 56, Norfolk, 19 dwel lings and one apartment house. Durham, N. C. reports 80% of its total for residences. Our correspondents in building materials lines report good business during October. Manu facturers of hardwood say that stocks are light, and that the past thirty to sixty days has witnessed a considerable increase in the demand, with a resulting tendency toward higher prices. A l a r g e paint manufacturer writes that his year ending November 30, 1921, will show a substantial increase over the previous year’s business. Crushed stone has been in very active demand for the past two months. A good year for 1922 is expected in the stone business because of increasing interest in road building and street work. Cypress lumber manufacturers tell us that the demand for their pro duct is excellent, and one large mill reports October sales as normal plus 50%. Philadelphia is said to be the most active market at present for cypress, but large sales have been made in Richmond, Baltimore, New York, and the New England States. REPORT ON WHOLESALE TRADE. Net Sales in October 1921, Compared with LINES SOLD Sale in September 1921 Sales in October 1920 +2.2% —7.6 +6.5 +5.2 —6.0 —24.7% +28.5 +44.2 —24.8 +44.8 —02% —3.0% ______ ______________________ Groceries (57)* 23j-y Goods (18)* ___ ________ _________ __ Shoes (18)* ____________________________________ Hardware (18)* ____________________________ ___ Furniture (13)* __________ __________________ Total (124)*____ - __________ ♦Number of reporting firms. The table above gives in percentage form the increase or decrease in the dollar amount of sales made in October 1921 in comparison with (1) sales in September 1921, and (2) sales in October 1920. Reports giving complete figures for the three months were received from fifty-seven whole sale grocers, eighteen wholesale dry goods firms, eighteen wholesale shoe dealers or manufacturers, eighteen hardware wholesalers or jobbers, and thirteen furniture factories, a total of one hundred and twenty-four reports. The grocers report an increase of 2.2% in sales in October in comparison with September 1921* but a decrease of 24.7% in comparison with October 1920, a decline chiefly due to price changes. In dry goods the gains and losses are reversed, October 1921 sales being reported as 7.6% under September 1921 sales, but 28.5% greater than sales in October 1920, but in October 1920 the market in dry goods was undergoing readjustment, sales that month having been 47.4% less than sales in October 1919. Sales of shoes in October 1921 were 6.5% greater than in Septem ber 1921 and 44.2% greater than in October 1920. Hardware sales were 5.2% greater in October than in September 1921, but 24.8% under sales in October 1920. Furniture sales in October 1921 fell 6.0% under September’s figures, but rose 44.8% above the October 1920 totals reported by the same firms. The reporting firms wrote us their experience with collections, and estimated them as Good, Fair, Slow or poor. One hundred and thirty-eight firms sent this data, the opinions dividing as shown in the following table: Lines Sold Good Groceries _____ ___________ _______ __ 11 1 Dry Goods ______________________ Shoes ____________ _______________ __ 2 Hardware ________________________ 0 Furniture ________________________ __ 4 TOTALS_______ __ 18 Fair Slow Poor Total 36 16 16 13 9 90 11 3 2 3 4 23 5 0 0 2 0 7 63 20 20 18 17 138 The figures show that 78.3% of the reporting firms classified their collections as either Good or Fair, which is an improvement over October 1920, when these classifications represented only 63.2% o f the total reports. The collections in general are good on current accounts, but many bills were carried over by the wholesalers from 1920 and the spring of 1921, and on these accounts liquidation is slow. We call attention to the increased number of reporting firms in groceries, dry goods, and shoes included this m,onth. The reports came from all sections of the District, and are sufficiently represen tative to indicate accurately the trend of conditions in the several lines. The individual reports are strictly confidential, but we may state that total sales reported for October 1921 by fifty-seven whole sale grocers amounted to $4,379,830; sales by eighteen dry goods firms totaled $3,023,467; sales made by eighteen shoe jobbers or manufacturers totaled $1,935,490; sales by eighteen hardware jobbers reached $1,224,975; and sales by thirteen furniture factories amounted to $735,739. The grand total of sales for the one hundred and twenty-four firms was $11,299,501, compared with sales amounting to $11,320,716 in September 1921 and $11,650,783 in October 1920. In view of price declines within the year, a distinctly greater volume of units of merchandise sold in October 1921 is indicated in com parison with sales in October 1920. FIGURES ON RETAIL TRADE. As Indicated By Reports from Twenty-Five Representative Department Stores for the Month of October 1921. Richmond Percentage decrease in net sales during October compared with October 1920- - 5J9 — 2.4 — 1.4 —152 — 5.6 Percentage decrease in net sales from July 1 through October 31, compared with sales during the same four months of 1920 _______ ____________________ —14.0 — 8.8 — 4.5 —13.7 —10.5 Percentage increase in net sales during October 1921 over sales in September 1921 ________________________________ 43.3 37.2 51.3 38.7 44.4 —11.8 —16.3 — 9.9 —15.8 Percentage decrease in stocks on hand at the end of October 1921 under stocks on hand at the end of October 1920___ 00 1 Baltimore Washington Other Cities District Percentage increase in stocks on hand at the end of October 1921 over stocks on hand at the end of September 1921__ 2.4 4.8 0.8 62 2.8 Percentage of average stocks on hand at the end of each month since July 1, to average net sales each month during the same period, four months________ 431.6 427.5 437.5 534.8 449.8 Percentage of outstanding orders at the end of October 1921 to total purchases of merchandise during the year 1920__ 5.6 8.9 5.3 4.6 57 — Denotes decrease. Confidential reports received for October from twenty-five of the leading department stores in the Fifth Federal Reserve District show net sales 5.6% less in dollar value than sales during October 1920, but 44.4% greater than sales during September 1921. Cumulative sales from July 1 through October 31 totaled 10.5% less in dollar value than sales during the corresponding four months of 1920. The selling value of stocks on hand at the end of October was 15.8% less than at the end of October 1920, but 2.8% greater than at the end of September, a natural increase caused by the re ceipt of holiday merchandise. The average value of stocks on hand at the end of each month since July 1 was 449.8% of average monthly sales during the same four months. Outstanding orders for merchandise on October 31 was 5.7% of total purchases during 1920. Examining the individual cities, Washington shows the smallest percentage decline under October 1920, and also shows the highest record in cumulative sales since July 1, but Richmond and Baltimore both report better rates of turnover, Richmond’s being the more rapid. As is to be ex pected, the smaller stores included under other Cities show the slowest rate of turnover, but in cumu lative sales since July 1 this year these miscellaneous cities show a slightly lower decline in com parison with the corresponding four months of 1920, than is shown by the Baltimore stores. While the majority of our correspondents report that their customers are buying essentials chiefly, several stores write that they are selling a considerable volume of luxuries. The stores have begun buying with more freedom than they did last fall and spring, having liquidated the excessive stocks with which they were caught when price declines began in the summer of 1920. The confi dence with which the future is viewed is much more apparent than at any previous time during the past eighteen months. Collections are better than could reasonably be expected, in view of consider able scaling down in wages and continued unemployment of many workers. (Compiled November 15, 1921)
@FedFRASER