Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1994
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103d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators SEPTEMBER 1994 (Includes data available as of October 3, 1994) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1994 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) KWEISI MFUME, Maryland, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) RON WYDEN (Oregon) MICHAEL A. ANDREWS (Texas) RICHARD K. ARMEY (Texas) JIM SAXTON (New Jersey) CHRISTOPHER C. COX (California) JIM RAMSTAD (Minnesota) SENATE EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia) BYRON L. DORGAN (North Dakota) BARBARA BOXER (California) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) CONNIE MACK (Florida) LARRY E. CRAIG (Idaho) ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah) RICK MC.GAHEY, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LAURA D. TYSON, Chair JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and Home of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33-00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by Ihc U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents. Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328 I S B N 0-16-045916-8 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1994, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 7.2 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in 1987 dollars) rose 4.1 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 2.9 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 6,800 !/ 5EASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUM RATES /" 6,400 6,400 / 6,000 6,000 ^ ^^f 5,600 5,600 GDP IN CURRENT DOUARS^^ 5,200 __ *~ " r< 4,600 , ^ \ / 5,200 X .--' *- 4,800 rX 4,400 ^--~ 4,000 GDP IN 1987DOLLARS k^ 4,400 -> 4,000 ^ X ---' 3,600 X 3,600 / ^ 3,200 2,800 6,800 3,200 I I i 1982 1 1 1983 1 1 1 t 1984 i I I 1985 1 i 1 1986 1 ! 1 1987 i i i 1988 i i i 1 1989 1 ! 1990 i i i i i i 1991 1992 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1993 2,800 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992- IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I n m rv 1993. I n m rv 1994- I r n. 1 Gross domestic product 4,268.6 4,539.9 4,900.4 5,250.8 5,546.1 5,724.8 6,020.2 6,343.3 3,195.1 3,547.3 3,869.1 4,140.5 4,336.6 4,683.0 5,044.6 5,344.8 5,597.9 5,796.6 5,896.8 5,971.3 6,043.6 6,169.3 6,235.9 6,299.9 6,359.2 6,478.1 6,574.7 6,689.9 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,850.6 3,052.2 3,296.1 3,523.1 3,761.2 3,902.4 4,136.9 4,378.2 2,128.7 2,346.8 2,526.4 2,739.8 2,923.1 3,124.6 3,398.2 3,599.1 3,836.6 3,955.7 4,044.4 4,097.8 4,154.0 4,251.3 4,294.6 4,347.3 4,401.2 4,469.6 4,535.0 4,586.4 717.6 749.3 793.6 832.3 808.9 744.8 788.3 882.0 464.2 614.8 722.8 737.0 697.1 800.2 814.8 825.2 756.4 756.8 747.7 787.9 795.5 822.0 853.8 869.7 882.2 922.5 966.6 1,034.4 Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports -132.5 -143.1 — 108.0 -79.7 71 4 -19.9 -30.3 653 -29.5 — 71.8 -107.1 - 135.5 -133.2 - 143.2 -106.0 -73.9 -71.6 -13.7 -9.9 -31.2 -37.8 —42.2 496 -63.3 -77.0 -71.2 -86.7 -97.6 Exports Imports 319.2 364.0 444.2 508.0 557.1 601.1 638.1 659.1 265.6 286.2 308.7 304.7 333.9 392.4 467.0 523.8 577.6 623.7 631.8 632.7 638.8 649.2 646.8 660.1 649.0 680.3 674.2 704.5 451.7 507.1 552.2 587.7 628.5 620.9 668.4 724.3 295.1 358.0 415.7 440.2 467.1 535.6 573.1 597.7 649.2 637.5 641.7 663.9 676.6 691.4 696.4 723.5 726.0 751.4 760.9 802.1 QDP leas exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Government purchases Total Total 833.0 881.5 918.7 975.2 1,047.4 1,097.4 1,125.3 1,148.4 631.6 657.6 727.0 799.2 849.7 901.4 937.6 994.5 1,076.5 1,097.9 1,114.5 1,116.8 1,131.9 1,138.1 1,137.1 1,146.3 1,152.9 1,157.2 1,159.8 1,166.7 367.8 384.9 387.0 401.6 426.5 445.8 449.0 443.6 281.4 289.7 324.7 356.9 373.1 392.5 392.0 405.1 436.5 438.3 445.2 443.2 452.9 454.8 446.9 445.2 442.7 439.8 437.8 435.1 National defense 276.7 292.1 295.6 299.9 314.0 322.8 314.2 302.7 205.5 222.8 242.9 268.6 278.6 295.8 296.8 302.5 322.5 311.6 312.2 310.0 318.6 316.0 307.0 305.8 299.0 299.1 291.7 291.7 Nondefense 91.1 92.9 91.4 101.7 112.5 123.1 134.8 140.9 75.9 66.9 81.9 88.3 94.5 96.7 95.2 102.6 114.0 126.6 133.0 133.2 134.2 138.7 139.9 139.4 143.6 140.7 146.1 143.5 State and local 465.3 496.6 531.7 573.6 620.9 651.6 676.3 704.7 350.3 367.9 402.2 442.4 476.6 509.0 545.7 589.3 640.0 659.7 669.3 673.6 679.1 683.3 690.2 701.2 710.2 717.4 722.0 731.5 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases * 4,260.0 4,513.7 4,884.2 5,217.5 5,539.3 5,726.6 6,017.2 6,327.9 3,241.4 3,527.1 3,818.1 4,107.9 4,355.4 4,623.7 5,027.3 5,314.6 5,621.8 5,782.3 5,903.1 5,967.4 6,038.3 6,160.0 6,215.8 6,281.4 6,345.4 6,469.2 6,550.6 6,622.5 4,401.2 4,683.0 5,008.4 5,330.5 5,617.5 5,744.7 6,050.5 6,408.6 3,224.6 3,619.1 3,976.2 4,276.0 4,469.8 4,826.2 5,150.7 5,418.7 5,669.5 5,810.4 5,906.6 6,002.6 6,081.4 6,211.4 6,285.5 6,363.3 6,436.3 6,549.3 6,661.4 6,787.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Addendum: Gross national product 4,277.7 4,544.5 4,908.2 5,266.8 5,567.8 5,740.8 6,025.8 6,347.8 3,222.6 3,578.4 3,890.2 4,156.2 4,340.5 4,690.5 5,054.3 5,365.0 5,630.0 5,810.7 5,907.7 5,979.1 6,049.4 6,167.0 6,243.9 6,303.3 6,367.8 6,476.2 6,574.0 6,682.5 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1987 DOLLARS [Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases Federal Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Change in busi- Net exports Exports Imports Total Total inventories State and local Nondefense National defense Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases ' Addendum: Gross national product 1987 1988 ... 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 4,404.5 4,539.9 4,718.6 4,838.0 4,897.3 4,867.6 4,979.3 5,134.5 2,969.1 3,052.2 3,162.4 3,223.3 3,272.6 3,259.4 3,349.5 3,458.7 500.3 497.8 530.8 540.0 546.5 515.4 525.9 591.6 226.2 225.2 222.7 214.2 194.5 169.5 196.9 213.0 8.5 155 1 26.3 -143.1 19.9 104 0 -73.7 29.8 5.7 -54.7 1 I -19.5 32 3 2.5 15.3 -73.9 329.6 364.0 421.6 471.8 510.5 542.6 578.8 602.5 484.7 507.1 525.7 545.4 565.1 562.1 611.2 676.3 855.4 881.5 886.8 904.4 932.6 944.0 936.9 929.8 373.0 384.9 377.3 376.1 384.1 386.7 373.5 356.6 280.6 292.1 287.0 281.4 283.6 281.4 261.4 243.7 92.4 92.9 90.2 94.8 100.4 105.3 112.2 113.0 482.4 496.6 509.6 528.3 548.5 557.2 563.3 573.1 4,395.9 4,513.7 4,698.6 4,808.3 4,891.6 4,868.7 4,976.9 5,119.3 4,559.6 4,683.0 4,822.6 4,911.7 4,951.9 4,887.2 5,011.6 5,208.4 4,413.5 4,544.5 4,726.3 4,852.7 4,916.5 4,882.3 4,985.7 5,140.3 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 19881989: 1990: 1991: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 3,759.6 4,012.1 4,194.2 4,333.5 4,427.1 4,625.5 4,779.7 4,856.7 4,867.2 4,880.8 2,539.3 2,678.2 2,784.8 2,895.3 3,012.5 3,074.7 3,202.9 3,242.0 3,265.9 3,265.3 417.2 449.6 509.6 525.5 495.5 510.6 538.8 536.7 540.2 506.9 131.2 —44.9 -19.0 190.6 -83.7 29.3 198.8 47.9 131 4 207.4 30.2 -155.4 230.5 -20.1 1560 223.3 59.9 -136.0 225.3 20.9 102 7 208.0 24.9 -67.4 176.3 -20.9 368 177.5 13.5 -16.9 280.4 291.5 312.8 312.0 342.9 386.1 438.2 487.7 520.4 562.6 299.4 375.1 444.2 467.4 498.9 522.1 540.9 555.0 557.2 579.4 735.9 748.1 784.3 830.5 864.8 893.0 894.5 912.6 942.4 934.4 316.0 322.2 341.7 363.7 377.5 391.6 378.4 376.1 386.5 374.1 229.4 242.9 254.3 272.1 282.2 295.0 285.7 281.5 285.7 265.8 86.6 79.3 87.4 91.6 95.3 96.6 92.7 94.7 100.8 108.2 419.9 425.9 442.6 466.7 487.3 501 4 516.1 536.5 555.8 560.4 3,804.5 3,982.8 4,146.2 4,303.3 4,447.2 4 565.6 4,758.7 4,831.8 4,888.0 4,867.3 3,778.6 4,095.8 4,325.5 4,488.9 4,583.1 4,761.5 4,882.4 4,924.1 4,904.0 4,897.6 3,791.7 4,046.6 4,216.4 4,349.5 4,430.8 4,633.0 4,789.0 4,875.1 4,895.4 4,893.9 I 4,918.5 4,947.5 4,990.5 5,060.7 3,311.4 3,325.4 3,357.6 3,403.4 506.8 524.8 531.2 540.9 186.7 196.5 196.9 207.7 -6.3 4.2 5.2 6.6 -17.9 -34.1 389 -38.5 571.0 573.1 580.5 590.7 588.8 607.1 619.4 629.3 937.8 930.7 938.5 940.6 372.9 368.3 376.0 377.0 260.9 257.5 264.6 262.4 112.0 110.8 111.4 114.6 564.9 562.4 562.5 563.6 4,924.8 4,943.2 4,985.3 5,054.1 4,936.4 4,981.5 5,029.4 5,099.2 4,929.1 4,955.5 4,997.2 5,061.0 I .... 5,075.3 5,105.4 5,139.4 5,218.0 3,417.2 3,439.2 3,472.2 3,506.2 560.3 581.0 597.9 627.2 210.4 206.3 211.0 224.5 18.5 18.9 13.0 10.8 -57.6 -69.3 863 -82.2 589.2 600.2 595.3 625.2 646.8 669.6 681.6 707.4 926.5 929.3 931.8 931.5 361.6 358.3 355.6 351.1 248.2 246.8 240.9 238.7 113.3 111.5 114.7 112.4 564.9 571.0 576.2 580.4 5,056.8 5,086.5 5,126.5 5,207.2 5,132.9 5,174.7 5,225.8 5,300.2 5,083.9 5,110.1 5,148.4 5,218.7 5,261.1 5,314.1 3,546.3 3,557.8 643.6 657.9 229.9 233.8 25.4 59.2 1040 -111.8 619.6 643.9 723.6 755.6 919.9 917.1 341.7 334.7 228.5 226.1 113.2 108.7 578.3 582.4 5,235.7 5,254.9 5,365.1 5,425.8 5,262.7 5,310.5 1986 .. 1992: 1993: n m rv n ra... . IV 1994: 1 I . nr. GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [1987 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Government purchases Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . 1992 1993 96.9 100.0 103.9 108.5 113.3 117.6 120.9 123.5 96.0 100.0 104.2 109.3 114.9 119.7 123.5 126.6 96.9 100.0 102.0 104.2 105.7 107.3 108.9 109.8 96.1 100.0 103.7 109.3 115.9 120.0 122.5 124.2 95.7 100.0 105.1 110.6 116.7 122.5 127.7 132.3 98.4 100.0 192.8 105.2 107.3 108.1 106.7 104.1 95.8 100.0 104.2 107.8 110.7 111.9 113.7 117.6 96.9 100.0 105.3 107.7 109.1 110.8 110.2 109.4 93.2 100.0 105.1 107.8 111.2 110.5 109.4 107.1 98.6 100.0 102.6 106.8 111.0 115.3 120.2 124.4 98.6 100.0 103.0 106.6 110.7 114.7 120.2 124.2 98.6 100.0 101.4 107.3 112.0 116.9 120.2 124.7 96.4 100.0 104.3 108.6 113.2 116.9 120.1 123.0 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 19881989: 19901991: 85.0 88.4 92.3 95.5 98.0 101.2 105.5 110.1 115.0 118.8 83.8 87.6 90.7 94.6 97.0 101.6 106.1 111.0 117.5 121.1 90.6 93.3 94.4 95.9 97.8 101.0 103.1 104.9 106.1 107.8 89.4 91.8 94.2 97.0 96.3 101.5 105.6 110.8 119.2 120.8 79.0 83.7 87.7 92.9 97.3 101.9 107.1 112.7 119.2 124.5 95.3 95.0 96.4 97.3 99.2 100.7 104.0 106.0 108.2 107.3 86.0 88.0 90.7 93.1 97.3 101.5 105.3 108.8 111.1 111.9 94.7 98.2 98.7 97.7 97.4 101.6 106.6 107.4 111.0 110.9 98.5 95.4 93.6 94.2 93.6 102.6 106.0 107.7 116.5 110.0 89.0 89.9 95.0 98.1 98.8 100.2 103.6 107.7 112.9 117.2 89.6 91.7 95.5 98.7 98.7 100.3 103.9 107.5 112.9 117.2 87.7 84.3 93.7 96.4 99.2 100.1 102.6 108.4 113.1 117.0 83.4 86.4 90.9 94.8 97.8 101.5 105.7 109.9 115.2 117.7 1992- I 119.9 120.7 121.1 121.9 122.1 123.2 123.7 124.9 108.3 108.9 109.1 109.1 121.4 122.1 123.0 123.3 125.9 127.3 127.7 129.8 107.4 107.1 106.5 106.0 112.4 113.0 114.0 115.1 110.7 110.4 110.0 109.9 109.0 109.4 109.2 109.9 119.4 120.4 120.4 120.6 119.7 120.4 120.4 120.4 118.8 120.3 120.5 121.1 118.5 119.8i 120.7 121.2 1993: I 122.9 123.4 123.7 124.1 125.7 126.4 126.8 127.5 109.2 109.8 110.0 110.2 124.0 124.2 123.9 124.6 130.8 131.9 132.7 133.8 105.3 104.9 103.5 103.0 115.9 117.2 118.2 119.0 109.8 110.0 109.0 108.8 107.7 108.1 106.5 106.2 123.6 124.2 124.5 125.3 123.7 123.9 124.1 125.3 123.5 125.0 125.2 125.1 122.2 122.8 123.3 123.6 I 125.0 125.9 127.9 128.9 110.5 111.1 124.6 125.1 134.4 135.9 103.4 103.9 120.5 121.3 108.8 109.4 105.2 106.1 128.1 130.0 127.7 129.0 129.1 132.0 124.9 125.6 IV IV IV IV IV IV .. IV IV .. IV IV n m rv 1994: n.... m rv nr Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GDP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND PRICE INDEXES [Percent change from preceding year or quarter; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Period Current dollars 1981 11.9 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1990: 3.9 8.1 10.9 6.9 5.7 6.4 7.9 7.2 5.6 3.2 5.2 5.4 9.1 5.9 3.1 1.0 2.8 5.0 3.8 2.6 7.1 5.2 4.9 8.6 4.4 4.2 3.8 7.7 6.1 7.2 .. . I .... II III . IV 1991: I ... II III IV 1992: I . II Ill IV 1993- I ... II in IV 1994- I . n' Constant (1987) dollars Implicit price deflator 1.8 -2.2 3.9 6.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.9 2.5 1.2 6 10.0 6.2 4.1 4.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.8 2.8 2.2 5.2 4.4 4.0 4.3 5.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.8 2.7 1.3 2.7 3.3 1.6 1.0 1.3 2.9 2.9 2.3 3.1 3.5 1.5 -.9 -3.2 -2.1 2.2 1.0 .1 3.1 2.4 3.5 5,7 1.2 2.4 2.7 6.3 3.3 4.1 Fixed-weighted price index (1987 weights) Current dollars Implicit price deflator 1.2 1.1 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.6 2.8 3.6 1.9 1.5 — ,4 2.8 3.3 2.8 .9 2.1 -2.7 28 2.1 1.3 -.5 5.8 1.7 3.9 5.6 1.6 2.6 3.9 4.0 4.7 1.3 9.0 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.9 3.1 4.2 4.2 4.9 5.1 4.2 3.2 2.5 6.3 4.3 6.1 6.7 3.4 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.7 1.6 3.9 2.6 2.2 1.3 2.2 1.3 3.2 10.2 6.9 9.6 9.0 8.4 6.9 7.1 8.0 6.9 6.8 3.8 6.0 5.8 9.2 5.3 8.3 3.7 .5 4.7 4.3 3.0 9.3 5.4 5.6 9.7 4.1 5.0 5.1 6.4 6.0 4.6 3.9 3.4 3.5 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.2 3.0 5.8 4.4 4.7 3.8 5.1 3.1 3.3 2.7 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.8 4.2 2.4 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.9 Fixed-weighted price index (1987 weights) Constant (1987) dollars 8.6 5.4 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.3 4.4 3.5 2.8 6.6 4.2 6.3 7.0 3.6 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.6 1.4 2.8 1.9 2.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1987 dollars Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) ' Total cost and profit z Consumption of fixed capital Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Net interest Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits Total tax liability 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 19821983198419851986: 19871988: 1989199019911992: . .. IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I ... .. n in rv 1993- I... u in rv 1994- I ...r H 1 2 . .. .. 2 386 3 2,547.3 2,764.8 2,913.5 3,045.5 3,089.7 3,222.9 3,409.7 1,806.3 2,037.2 2,228.2 2,338.8 2,422.8 2,627.6 2,843.2 2,951.5 3,052.5 3,125.9 2,439.3 2,547.3 2,684.8 2,718.9 2,747.4 2,716.7 2,802.8 2,942.9 1,999.6 2,204.2 2,328.4 2,396.9 2,463.3 2,604.0 2,719.0 2,722.7 2,725.0 2,740.9 3,150.0 3,194.4 3,239.4 3,307.8 2,746.9 2,778.3 2,815.7 2,870.2 3,324.4 3,386.3 3,428.7 3,499.3 2,868.4 2,920.5 2,963.3 3,019.5 3,568.6 3,626.7 3,062.6 3,098.9 0.978 1.000 1.030 1.072 1.109 1.137 1.150 1.159 .903 .924 .957 .976 .984 1.009 1.046 1.084 1.120 1.140 1.147 1.150 1.150 1.152 1.159 1.159 1.157 1.159 1.165 1.170 0.111 .110 .111 .117 .120 .126 .126 .123 .119 .119 .111 .110 .112 .110 .112 .120 .123 .125 .126 .125 .130 .123 .124 .123 .124 .120 .125 .121 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in 1987 dollars. This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporal* business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 0.095 0.648 0.040 0.084 .095 .096 .101 .106 .115 .117 .117 .086 .088 .091 .093 .095 .094 .097 .102 .109 .117 .118 .117 .117 .118 .117 .117 .116 .117 .117 .117 .658 .676 .706 .736 .756 .767 .768 .607 .602 .623 .643 .654 .664 .687 .718 .748 .760 .765 .768 .769 .768 .776 .770 .766 .760 .763 .766 .042 .045 .054 .054 .049 .041 .039 .040 .036 .041 .038 .042 .042 .047 .055 .054 .047 .044 .041 .039 .038 .039 .039 .039 .038 .038 .039 .096 .102 .094 .093 .092 .099 .112 .051 .079 .091 .092 .081 .099 .102 .088 .085 .092 .095 .098 .095 .107 .102 .111 .113 .123 .122 .127 0.031 .037 .038 .037 .034 .031 .031 .040 .020 .029 .027 .030 .035 .038 .040 .033 .034 .031 .029 .033 .031 .033 .037 .040 .038 .043 .043 .046 Profits after tax 4 0.053 .059 .064 .057 .059 .061 .067 .073 .030 .050 .064 .063 .045 .060 .063 .055 .052 .061 .066 .065 .065 .073 .065 .071 .075 .080 .078 .081 Output per hour of all employees (1987 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 22.733 23.127 23.572 23.189 23.446 23.926 24.648 25.377 21.070 21.893 22.055 22.346 22.891 23.356 23.521 23.146 23.549 24.210 14.739 15.207 15.833 16.377 17.246 18.081 18.916 19.481 12.791 13.186 13.732 14.359 14.975 15.517 16.069 16.616 17.623 18.400 24.286 24.459 24.774 25.087 18.576 18.790 19.052 19.255 24.966 25.244 25.521 25.816 19.368 19.435 19.543 19.612 26.024 25.938 19.859 19.860 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 'See note, p. 16. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: 19941 4,002.6 4,249.5 4,491.0 4,608.2 4,829.5 5,131.4 2,551.5 2,834.3 3,134.4 3,341.9 3,486.0 3,828.8 4,127.6 4,305.2 4,539.2 4,663.9 4,752.4 4,806.8 4,793.9 4,964.9 5,031.1 5,094.0 5,138.5 5,262.0 5,308.7 5,430.7 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I n m rv. I n. m rv.. I n r.... 2,921.3 3,100.2 3,297.6 3,404.8 3,591.2 3,780.4 1,940.4 2,101.2 2,288.1 2,442.5 2,582.5 2,785.1 3,004.9 3,162.8 3,344.2 3,459.1 3,514.2 3,564.9 3,614.7 3,671.0 3,713.1 3,761.1 3,801.7 3,845.8 3,920.0 3,979.3 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm 30.9 40.2 41.9 36.7 44.4 37.3 10.2 6.3 21.9 17.8 23.6 42.4 30.9 38.4 43.8 36.6 49.0 43.7 38.8 46.0 49.6 39.4 15.8 44.4 47.2 39.3 293.4 307.0 321.4 339.5 374.4 404.3 169.6 193.8 217.7 250.9 260.9 282.6 302.5 311.4 325.1 349.8 361.9 369.1 374.0 392.4 394.8 399.4 404.5 418.5 423.8 431.9 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) 4.3 -13.5 -10.5 55 24.1 24.1 22.2 24.3 14.0 4.7 6.8 2.8 — 21.6 -11.1 81 -6.4 54 -15.5 5.1 16.5 23.4 26.3 30.3 15.3 34.1 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Profits before tax Total 365.0 362.8 380.6 390.3 405.1 485.8 150.3 229.1 261.3 284.9 264.6 343.3 378.3 354.5 362.8 394.7 412.1 412.6 363.2 432.5 442.5 473.1 493.5 533.9 508.2 546.4 320.3 325.4 354.7 370.9 389.4 456.2 160.0 216.2 223.6 228.0 225.0 293.4 340.5 320.6 349.3 372.3 393.0 396.9 352.3 415.6 421.5 446.6 461.7 495.1 471.2 509.0 Inventory valuation adjustment 347.5 342.9 365.7 365.2 395.9 462.4 168.6 223.8 220.1 231.8 235.7 311.2 372.2 334.1 368.9 373.1 397.0 413.5 359.5 413.5 432.7 456.6 458.7 501.7 483.5 523.1 Capital consumption adjustment 27 3 -17.5 110 5.8 -6.4 -6.2 -8.6 -7.6 3.5 -3.8 107 -17.8 -31.7 13 5 -19.5 -.8 -4.0 166 -7.3 2.1 -11.2 100 3.0 -6.5 12 3 — 14.1 44.7 37.4 25.9 19.4 15.7 29.5 96 12.9 37.7 56.9 39.6 49.9 37.9 33.9 13.5 22.4 19.0 15.8 10.9 16.9 21.0 26.5 31.7 38.8 37.0 37.4 Net interest 387.7 452.7 463.7 447.4 420.0 399.5 256.8 281.8 321.1 331.9 349.7 368.6 408.1 459.8 474.4 431.8 421.6 421.9 418.7 418.0 414.6 397.6 396.7 389.1 394.2 399.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1987 DOLLARS [Billions of 1987 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992.. 1993 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: IV IV.. IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I n m IV 1993: I ii m IV 1994: I r n. 1 Total personal consumption expenditures 3,162.4 3,223.3 3,272.6 3,259.4 3,349.5 3,458.7 2,539.3 2,678.2 2,784.8 2,895.3 3,012.5 3,074.7 3,202.9 3,242.0 3,265.9 3,265.3 3,311.4 3,325.4 3,357.6 3,403.4 3,417.2 3,439.2 3,472.2 3,506.2 3,546.3 3,557.8 Durable goods Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 428.7 440.7 194.8 196.4 443.1 192.7 170.0 181.8 196.1 123.7 151.6 164.3 173.9 193.6 183.6 197.7 188.3 182.1 171.6 179.8 178.6 180.6 188.2 189.7 195.1 195.0 204.7 213.7 205.3 425.3 452.6 489.9 272.3 319.1 347.7 369.6 415.7 404.7 439.2 436.8 433.2 427.7 443.4 443.8 454.5 468.8 472.5 483.7 492.7 510.8 521.7 522.2 Includes othet items, not shown separately. Furniture and household equipment 155.4 165.8 171.6 179.2 193.3 214.1 96.4 109.3 118.7 128.6 141.4 145.9 160.3 167.9 172.3 181.2 187.2 188.8 195.3 202.0 205.2 209.9 216.6 224.6 225.9 232.5 Nondurable goods Other 78.5 78.5 78.7 76.1 77.5 79.7 52.3 58.1 64.8 67.1 80.7 75.2 81.2 80.5 78.8 74.9 76.3 76.3 78.6 78.6 77.6 78.7 81.1 81.5 82.0 84.4 Total nondurable goods 1,035.1 1J051.6 1,060.7 1,047.7 1,057.7 1,078.5 880.7 915.2 942.9 968.7 1,000.9 1,014.6 1,046.8 1,058.9 1,057.5 1,040.4 1,051.1 1,049.3 1,056.4 1,074.2 1,070.0 1,074.3 1,081.7 1,088.0 1,098.3 1,104.3 Food 513.4 515.0 523.9 518.8 514.7 524.0 458.3 467.1 475.1 488.2 496.9 502.4 518.0 515.6 525.8 514.9 515.6 509.9 511.5 522.0 520.7 522.3 525.1 528.1 531.9 536.1 Clothing and shoes 178.9 187.8 186.2 184.7 193.2 197.8 135.7 147.7 154.7 161.7 171.9 174.5 182.8 190.9 184.5 182.8 188.9 190.6 194.9 198.7 194.0 196.1 198.6 202.4 203.8 204.9 Gasoline and oil Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Services Fuel oil and coal 86.1 87.3 86.4 12.0 11.4 10.5 83.1 85.6 86.5 73.4 76.9 79.0 79.5 84.6 85.4 87.5 88.6 84.6 82.4 84.3 85.3 86.6 86.0 86.1 85.7 87.5 86.6 86.1 86.7 10.7 11.2 12.1 10.5 11.4 11.1 11.4 12.4 11.9 12.0 12.0 9.5 10.7 10.7 12.0 10.8 11.3 12.0 11.8 12.2 12.2 13.4 11.4 Other 244.7 250.2 253.8 250.5 253.0 258.2 202.8 212.2 222.9 228.0 235.2 240.4 246.4 251.8 253.1 249.7 251.6 251.5 252.6 256.3 257.2 258.3 258.4 258.8 263.1 265.1 Total services 1 1,698.5 1,731.0 1,768.8 1,786.3 1,839.1 1,890.3 1,386.2 1,443.9 1,494.2 1,557,1 1,595.8 1,655.5 ,716.9 ,746.3 ,775.2 ,797.3 ,817.0 ,832.3 ,846.7 ,860.4 ,874.8 ,881.2 ,897.8 ,907.4 ,926.3 ,931.4 Housing 461.8 469.2 474.6 479.0 485.2 492.6 411.0 419.7 431.3 438.1 444.8 457.0 465.6 471.3 475.9 481.4 482.6 484.2 486.1 487.8 489.8 491.5 493.7 495.4 497.7 500.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analys Medical care 399.4 408.6 424.6 437.7 454.3 466.4 327.8 334.8 344.9 359.1 372.0 390.7 403.0 411.8 429.4 444.7 448.5 453.1 456.6 459.0 463.1 464.3 467.6 470.4 473.2 477.4 Domestics Imports 7.5 7.1 3.1 6.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.6 7.5 6.2 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.9 6.7 7.1 7.4 2.6 2.3 2.1 7.2 2.8 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $23.9 billion (annual rate) in August, following a rise of $28.0 billion in July. Wages and salaries rose $8.1 billion in August, after rising $15.2 billion in July. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 2,000 2,000 1,400 V 1,400 OTHER INCOME TRANSFER PAYMENTS 800 400 I IIII II MI 1986 I I I I II I iI 1987 800 400 I I ! I I I I I II 1988 1989 1990 1993 1991 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Tolal personal income 1986 3,590.4 1987. 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993: July. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1994: Jan Feb. Har. Apr ' May r . June r July '., Aug*. 3,802.0 4,075.9 4,380.3 4,673.8 4,860.3 5,154.3 5,375.1 5,356.1 5,415.4 5,416.3 5,454.4 5,482.8 5,516.7 5,483.9 5,576.0 5,607.5 5,639.4 5,665.4 5,674.9 5,702.9 5,726.8 Wage and salary disbursements t 2,105.4 2^261.2 2,443.0 2,586.4 2,745.0 2,816.1 2,974.8 3,080.8 3,103.2 3,124.7 3,119.6 3,138.5 3,146.0 3,160.8 3,198.2 3,206.7 3,220.1 3,241.4 3,263.4 3,267.0 3,282.2 3,290.3 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income ' 2 200.7 210.4 230.5 251.9 274.3 299.0 328.7 355.3 356.3 358.8 361.4 364.0 366.7 369.6 371.4 373.2 375.0 376.7 378.4 380.1 381.9 383.7 Farm 22.3 31.3 30.9 40.2 41.9 36.7 44.4 37.3 3.7 21.9 21.8 31.4 48.0 53.9 43.1 49.5 48.8 46.9 38.8 32.3 30.0 29.9 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm Rental income of persona * 261.5 8.7 279.0 293.4 307.0 321.4 339.5 374.4 404.3 401.8 405.6 406.0 414.5 418.3 422.7 418.2 424.3 429.0 430.2 432.1 433.5 433.8 435.5 3.2 4.3 -13.5 -14.2 -10.5 -5.5 24.1 21.1 28.4 29.3 29.6 30.1 31.4 -27.0 34.6 38.4 35.0 34.6 32.6 34.0 35.5 4 Personal dividend income 104.7 100.4 108.4 126,5 144.4 150.5 161.0 181.3 182.1 182.9 183.5 183.9 184.1 184.3 184.5 185.4 187.1 189.9 191.8 193.4 195.1 197.0 Personal interest income Transfer payments s Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 531.7 517.8 162.1 548.1 583.2 668.2 698.2 695.1 665.2 637.9 633.3 634.7 634.3 630.9 627.3 624.9 627.9 631.1 634.4 642.0 649.3 656.9 663.0 668.8 542.2 576.7 625.0 687.6 770.1 860.2 915.4 917.5 922.7 924.6 927.5 928.8 936.8 943.2 947.4 951.5 955.9 957.1 960.0 964.8 968.7 173.6 194.5 211.4 224.9 236.2 248.7 261.3 262.9 264.5 264.1 265.8 266.4 267.5 275.7 276.2 276.9 278.5 280.2 280.9 282.0 282.6 Nonfarm personal income 6 3,545.6 3,749.4 4,023.9 4,318.0 4,608.6 4,801.8 5,089.4 5,316.6 5,331.2 5,372.1 5,373.0 5,401.4 5,413.1 5,441.1 5,418.6 5,504.3 5,536.4 5,570.1 5,604.0 5,619.9 5,650.1 5,674.0 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5 6 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in 1987 dollars rose in the second quarter of 1994. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE! 2,500 2,000 2,000 DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 20,000 DOLLARS" (RATIO SCALE) 20,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME ——- ,_.., .—"I 18,000 CURRENT DOLLARS \ 16,000 \-—-—" ^ 16,000 _. __ 14,000 • ^ 12,000 18,000 r^ i'" 14,000 ___. ^ —• 1 987 DOLLA PS 12,000 """" 10,000 8,000 10,000 ^ \ \ \ 1982 \ \ i 1983 i i i 1984 1 1 ! 1985 1 ! ! 1986 ! ! i 1 1987 i i 1 1 ! 1989 1988 t ! i i i 1991 1 1990 1 1 1992 1 I ! 1993 1 i i i 1994 8,000 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals' Disposable income Less: Persona! outlays * Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1987 Current dollars dollars (billions) Billions of dollars Current dollars 1987 dollars Dollars 3,802.0 4,075.9 4,380.3 4,673.8 4,860.3 5,154.3 5,375.1 512.5 527.7 593.3 623.3 623.7 648.6 686.4 3,289.5 3,548.2 3,787.0 4,050.5 4,236.6 4,505.8 4,688.7 3,147.5 3,392.5 3,634.9 3,880.6 4,025.0 4,257.8 4,496.2 2,746.8 2,965.8 3,242.5 3,456.7 3,647.8 3,918.5 4,195.2 4,469.4 4,759.1 4,934.2 372.1 371.6 413.4 448.8 478.5 528.6 542.0 605.1 625.2 631.2 2,374.7 2,594.3 2,829.1 3,007.9 3,169.3 3,389.9 3,653.2 3,864.3 4,133.9 4,303.0 2,190.9 2,417.9 2,606.5 2,828.7 3,018.2 3,220.1 3,496.7 3,715.5 3,957.7 4,078.4 183.8 176.3 222.6 179.2 151.1 169.8 156.4 148.8 176.2 224.6 2,832.6 2,960.6 3,118.5 3,178.7 3,266.2 3,335.8 3,443.1 3,480.9 3,519.0 3,552.1 1992: I 5,032.4 5,101.9 5,148.1 5,335.0 631.3 638.7 648.1 676.2 4,401.1 4,463.2 4,500.0 4,658.8 4,186.4 4,219.4 4,274.2 4,371.4 234.7 243.8 225.8 287.4 1993: I 5,255.5 5,364.5 5,395.9 5,484.6 5,555.8 5,659.9 657.3 685.9 695.4 707.0 723.0 746.4 4,598.2 4,678.6 4,700.5 4,777.6 4,832.8 4,913.5 4,413.7 4,464.6 4,518.2 4,588.2 4,657.3 4,712.4 184.6 214.0 182.3 189.4 175.5 201.1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1987 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures 142.0 155.7 152.1 170.0 211.6 247.9 192.6 13,545 14,477 15,307 16,205 16,766 17,636 18,153 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population. including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 13,545 13,890 14,005 14,101 14,003 14,279 14,341 12,568 13,448 14,241 15,048 15,444 16,192 16,951 — 0.1 2.5 .8 .7 n 2.0 .4 4.3 12,903 13,029 13,093 12,899 13,110 13,391 4.4 4.0 4.2 5.0 5.5 4.1 242,860 245,093 247,397 249,951 252,688 255,484 258,290 10,189 11,033 11,925 12,565 13,121 13,907 14,850 15,558 16,467 16,957 12,154 12,591 13,145 13,278 13,522 13,685 13,996 14,015 14,018 13,998 9,134 9,980 10,649 11,445 12,101 12,819 13,814 14,491 15,283 15,588 10,895 11,390 11,739 12,095 12,472 12,615 13,020 13,053 13,010 12,868 -0.5 7.2 1.0 1.8 -1.7 5.2 3.2 1.8 -1.7 .7 7.7 6.8 7.9 6.0 4.8 5.0 4.3 3.9 4.3 5.2 233,060 235,146 237,231 239,387 241,550 243,745 24P,,004 248,372 251,035 253,758 3,603.5 3,621.9 3,637.2 3,729.6 17,302 17,498 17,587 18,154 14,166 14,199 14,215 14,533 15,900 16,065 16,235 16,566 13,018 13,037 13,122 13,262 4.9 .9 .5 9.3 5.3 5.5 5.0 6.2 254,369 255,076 255,865 256,626 3,658.9 3,701.3 3,708.4 3,747.8 3,779.2 3,811.5 17,874 18,141 18,174 18,421 18,588 18,853 14,222 14,351 14,338 14,451 14,535 14,625 16,693 16,856 17,017 17,233 17,443 17,598 13,283 13,335 13,425 13,519 13,640 13,651 -8.3 3.7 -.4 3.2 2.3 2.5 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.0 3.6 4.1 257,262 257,908 258,635 259,356 259,997 260,627 3,289.5 3,404.3 3,464.9 3,524.5 3,538.5 3,648.1 3,704.1 12,568 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV n in.... rv n m.... IV 1994: I r n .... 1 Includes persona! consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer j ments to rest of the world (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1994, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $4.2 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $1.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 240 v. ^ S— ~Xx~-' v ^v r /- ^ ' " • ^^ — - XX — P-" 160 ^•^ 1 20 120 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 ^ / ^- ^ \ 20 ^ > l\^/ \ \ '^ ' / \ '\ \! \' 1 \ / / ' ~~ ^/ f s^ --x / N \/ \' ^^ \ \' — - s ; ^\ /^ \i \i 40 NET FARM INCOME 20 1 1 ft / 1 M, l l I / II 2 i i i 1982 i i i 1983 10 ^ i i i i 1984 i i 1985 i l l 1986 i i i 1987 l i i 1988 i i i i i i i 1989 1990 1991 i i * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE i i i i i i 1 1993 1992 1 I 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1992- I r r n r mr TV 1993- I r r n r ni TV ' 1994- I r> ) n 1 168.0 161.2 156.1 168.5 175.8 192.8 198.2 192.3 200.2 201.4 200.3 198.8 202.0 199.8 207.8 202.3 184.5 211.2 211.7 215.9 Total 142.8 144.1 135.4 141.8 151.2 161.1 170.0 168.8 171.2 175.1 165.2 167.7 181.2 170.7 176.9 175.2 172.1 176.0 177.2 185.1 Livestock and products 72.9 69.8 71.6 76.0 79.4 84.1 89.8 86.7 86.4 90.6 82.4 87.2 89.6 86.2 86.4 95.5 89.8 90.5 90.2 87.2 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 69.9 74.3 63.8 65.9 71.7 77.0 80.1 82.1 84.9 84.5 82.8 80.4 91.7 84.5 90.6 79.7 82.3 85.5 86.9 97.9 3 Value of inventory changes z 6.0 -2.3 -2.2 -2.3 -3.4 4.8 3.4 -.3 4.3 -3.6 5.4 5.0 4.0 2.9 -6.5 -5.1 -6.0 3.0 6.6 6.1 Production expenses Current dollars 141.9 132.4 125.1 128.8 137.0 144.9 551.3 151.2 150.1 158.0 147.4 149.7 151.5 152.0 155.1 157.5 159.5 160.0 158.5 161.0 26.1 28.8 31.1 39.7 38.8 47.9 46.9 41.1 50.1 43.4 52.9 49.2 50.5 47.8 52.7 44.8 25.0 51.1 53.2 55.0 1987 dollars 3 28.7 30.5 32.0 39.7 37.3 44.1 41.4 35.0 41.4 35.1 44.1 40.7 41.7 39.2 42.8 36.3 20.2 41.2 42.6 43.7 Income in current dollars divided by the GDP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1991 in chart do not reflect revisions to annual data in table. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1994, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $39.6 billion (annual rate), following a decline of $18.2 billion in the first quarter. The first- and second-quarter changes reflect the effects of the Northridge earthquake. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 i60 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES , 500 V / 500 J - / Vr\ _^ V- 'V ^ ^ x^_ s—\ 200 \„ / / / V__^- ./ 250 V X /^ / / - / / ppr)FITS AFER TAV r-, 250 /"^ _ X 200 X y J r~ ^ 150 s ~- ' _ .j 100 ^ ^^ / ' •-.s .-•-•' •». 50 -•' ,'-' ' f "* — -~ ^ \ \=.-z-* .-•' ' i-.-'*" /- y 150 s \ t v ''\ ,^ ^- -' x' / •^ k X - / "-• •»' "--^ TAX LIABILITY \ .--•^.^ \ „•-"• \ \ - f , j* -''"' l' ^ 50 - ,K'UNDISTRI JUTED PRO ITS . - 0 i i i 1982 i l I 1983 1 1 ( 1984 i i i 1985 i i i i i 1986 i i i 1988 1987 I I I 19S9 I I i 1990 i i i 1991 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i 1992 1993 1994 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE' COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfmancial Total 2 Total 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 .. 1982- TV 1983- IV 1984- IV 1985: IV 1986- IV 1987: IV 1988- IV 1989- IV 1990- IV 1991- IV 1992- I n m rv 1993- I n m rv 1994- I r n 1 2 227.6 273.4 320.3 325.4 354.7 370.9 389.4 456.2 160.0 216.2 223.6 228.0 225.0 293.4 340.5 320.6 349.3 372.3 393.0 396.9 352.3 415.6 421.5 446.6 461.7 495.1 471.2 509.0 194.6 233.9 271.2 266.0 286.7 302.4 328.8 391.0 130.8 182.6 192.9 193.5 192.5 246.3 285.9 254.8 273.8 301.4 329.5 333.2 291.6 361.0 354.0 383.8 392.6 433.4 410.1 448.2 Financial 35.8 36.4 41.8 50.6 65.7 84.3 81.9 103.7 23.0 22.1 20.3 29.0 34.7 39.4 46.1 52.5 66.6 84.6 100.9 91.2 48.8 86.7 95.9 100.1 103.9 114.6 89.6 106.4 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Total 3 158.9 197.5 229.4 215.3 221.1 218.1 246.9 287.3 107.8 160.5 172.6 164.5 157.8 207.0 239.7 202.3 207.2 216.8 228.6 242.0 242.8 274.3 258.0 283.7 288.7 318.8 320.5 341.8 Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade 59.0 87.0 117.5 108.0 109.1 90.1 94.5 114.2 50.1 90.5 79.2 83.3 63.9 98.7 129.3 94.5 98.5 85.3 88.1 93.0 95.6 101.3 96.2 114.2 112.4 134.2 145.1 143.0 46.3 39.9 37.1 39.7 37.2 46.7 54.8 61.2 33.8 40.7 50.8 39.0 43.1 39.3 39.3 39.2 36.2 47.4 46.7 55.6 52.5 64.6 56.0 63.3 62.0 63.7 59.0 72.0 Profits before tax 217.8 287.9 347.5 342.9 365.7 365.2 395.9 462.4 168.6 223.8 220.1 231.8 235.7 311.2 372.2 334.1 368.9 373.1 397.0 413.5 359.5 413.5 432.7 456.6 458.7 501.7 483.5 523.1 Tax liability 106.5 127.1 137.0 141.3 138.7 131.1 139.7 173.2 58.7 82.2 83.8 97.6 116.6 135.2 146.2 134.2 137.0 133.1 139.6 146.0 124.6 148.6 159.8 171.8 169.9 191.5 184.1 201.7 Total 111.3 160.8 210.5 201.6 227.1 234.1 256.2 289.2 109.9 141.6 136.3 134.2 119.2 176.0 226.0 200.0 231.8 240.0 257.4 267.5 234.9 264.8 273.0 284.8 288.9 310.2 299.4 321.4 Dividends 109.8 106.2 115.3 134.6 153.5 160.0 171.1 191.7 72.5 84.2 83.4 97.4 111.0 106.3 121.0 141.3 153.7 160.9 161.0 166.8 174.4 182.1 188.2 190.7 193.2 194.6 196.3 202.5 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 1.6 54.6 95.2 67.1 73.6 74.1 85.1 97.5 37.5 57.4 52.9 36.9 8.2 69.7 105.0 58.7 78.1 79.1 96.4 100.8 60.5 82.7 84.7 94.1 95.6 115.6 103.0 118.9 Inventory valuation adjustment 9.7 145 -27.3 -17.5 -11.0 5.8 64 -6.2 86 -7.6 3.5 -3.8 -10.7 -17.8 -31.7 135 -19.5 g -4.0 166 -7.3 2.1 -11.2 100 3.0 -6.5 -12.3 — 14.1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1987 DOLLARS In the second quarter of 1994, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in 1987 dollars rose $14.3 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $3.9 billion. There was a $59.2 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $25.4 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 900 800 700 600 500 y / 900 s ~x/ / i^r~~^ r^ S N_ P\ —f ~ GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 800 ^ ^-^ 700 s s -' 600 s -» «. ""\"" >. - s* — ~* 500 \ NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT s s' 400 400 RESIDE NTIAL 300 300 \ ,__ 200 s **"~' — .«_-"' 100 f " ~" x / 0 -100 -' \, 1 1 1 1982 '* CHANGE IN BL SINESS INVENTOR IES X •**' 200 — — •-" ' \ * 'x 100 t / / / 0 \ , s I 1 I 1983 1 1 1984 ! \ I i 1985 1 I 1 1986 I ! 1987 I ' i l l 1988 I t i 1 1989 1 1 1990 i i i \ 1991 1 1 1992 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ! 1 ! -100 1993 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period 1982' 198319841985' 1986198719881989199019911992- Producers' durable equipment Residential Total Nonfarm 323.7 326.5 356.8 362.5 367.0 354.9 376.2 443.9 226.2 225.2 222.7 214.2 194.5 169.5 196.9 213.0 8.5 26.3 19.9 29.8 5.7 -1.1 2.5 15.3 10.6 32.7 26.9 29.9 3.2 -1.3 ^2.0 18.5 503.5 669.5 756.4 763.1 705.9 793.8 785.0 769.5 695.7 697.9 548.4 640.2 708.4 732.9 725.9 733.9 764.1 744.6 716.6 684.4 417.2 449.6 509.6 525.5 495.5 510.6 538.8 536.7 540.2 506.9 173.2 162.6 189.5 198.3 170.4 177.9 175.7 179.8 172.8 151.4 244.0 287.0 320.1 327.2 325.0 332.7 363.1 356.9 367.4 355.5 J31.2 190.6 198.8 207.4 230.5 223.3 225.3 208.0 176.3 177.5 -44.9 29.3 47.9 30.2 20.1 59.9 20.9 24.9 20.9 13.5 —46.2 32.3 50.8 28.0 -18.6 62.1 30.5 31.2 -18.7 14.6 687.2 725.5 733.3 755.2 693.5 721.3 728.1 748.6 506.8 524.8 531.2 540.9 152.5 151.9 148.4 146.3 354.3 372.9 382.8 394.6 186.7 196.5 196.9 207.7 -6.3 4.2 5.2 6.6 - 14.3 — 1.9 1.8 6.3 ... 789.2 806.2 821.8 862.5 770.7 787.3 808.8 851.7 560.3 581.0 597.9 627.2 147.2 147.3 147.5 148.7 413.0 433.7 450.3 478.5 210.4 206.3 211.0 224.5 18.5 18.9 13.0 10.8 19.7 22.8 20.9 10.7 ... 898.9 950.9 873.4 891.7 643.6 657.9 144.1 151.0 499.4 506.9 229.9 233.8 25.4 59.2 22.1 51.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures 176.6 171.3 174.0 177.6 179.5 160.6 149.8 147.7 ni n' Total 500.3 497.8 530.8 540.0 546.5 515.4 525.9 591.6 IV FV IV IV TV IV IV IV IV IV I II III IV IV 1994- I Total 726.5 723.0 753.4 754.2 741.1 684.9 722.9 804.6 .. 1993- I II Nonresidential 735.1 749.3 773.4 784.0 746.8 683.8 725.3 819.9 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross private domestic investment EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department July-August 1994 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 8.8 percent in 1994, following a rise of 7.3 percent in 1993. BILUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE] BILUONS Of DOUARS (RATIO SCALE) 700 700 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 600 __— — • rT 500 ^ ^—~ r~^~ 500 \ ALL INDL ISTRIES ^ r ^... •' ^^^ ' 600 1 ..-•'"~" 400 _.- ' ..-"'"" ,*-' \" 300 NONMANUF LOURING-17 200 "*NX -''"\ «'*' 1 1985 MANUFAaURING S~ ~"N ! 1 l 1786 i i 1987 ^,,__. 1 1 1 1988 1 1 i ! 1989 i i 1 ! i 1991 1990 a/3/ i i i 1992 -^SURVEYED QUARTERLY ^SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE i i i 1994 1993 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total 373.83 410.12 399.36 410.52 455.49 507.40 532.61 528.39 546.60 586.73 638.37 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.61 182.81 174.02 179.47 192.56 534.23 541.29 547.82 559.39 1993- I ' r 1994- I r r 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988... 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 * 1994 4 1992- I ' n' ni ' TV n r in rv ' n 4 m4 W 1 Nonmanufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 278.77 302.05 309.16 320.45 344.77 380.13 399.34 405.12 433.69 470.95 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 339.99 345.58 372.58 407.26 445.81 Nondurable goods Total1 Mining Transportation Public utilities 64.57 70.87 65.68 68.03 77.04 82.56 82.58 77.64 73.32 81.45 92.78 75.04 82.01 72.28 73.03 86.41 101.24 110.04 105.17 100.69 98.02 99.77 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 339.99 345.58 372.58 407.26 445.81 11.86 12.00 8.15 8.28 9.29 9.21 9.88 10.02 8.88 10.08 11.24 13.44 14.57 15.05 15.07 16.63 18.84 21.47 22.66 22.64 21.77 21.19 57.53 59.58 56.61 56.26 60.37 66.28 67.21 66.57 72.21 75.98 76.44 151.39 171.09 181.59 189.84 205.76 229.28 241.43 246.32 268.84 299.44 336.93 173.14 172.52 173.05 176.74 73.26 73.74 72.63 73.64 99.87 98.78 100.42 103.09 361.09 368.77 374.77 382.65 8.99 9.20 8.96 8.43 21.82 23.32 23.66 21.66 69.09 72.56 72.48 73.79 261.19 263.69 269.67 278.77 173.14 172.52 173.05 176.74 361.09 368.77 374.77 382.65 563.48 578.95 594.56 604.51 173.99 177.55 182.48 182.15 78.19 80.33 82.74 83.64 95.80 97.22 99.74 98.51 389.49 401.40 412.09 422.36 8.98 9.10 11.09 10.92 22.38 21.50 21.32 21.84 73.78 74.45 75.94 78.87 284.35 293.35 303.74 310.73 173.99 177.55 182.48 182.15 38949 401.40 41209 422.36 619.34 637.08 651.92 645.13 185.04 193.99 197.36 193.83 86.03 91.71 98.97 94.44 99.02 102.28 98.39 99.39 434.29 443.09 454.56 451.30 11.43 10.70 11.57 11.27 22.47 19.59 20.73 21.98 73.20 76.51 78.50 77.57 327.20 336.28 343.76 340.48 185.04 193.99 197.36 193.83 434.29 443.09 45456 451.30 Durable goods Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 Commercial and other 4 418.38 454.93 447.11 461.51 508.22 563.93 591.96 587.93 607.71 650.41 Manufacturing 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.61 182.81 174.02 179.47 192.56 Surveyed annually» 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 56.53 59.35 59.54 61.11 63.68 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1994, corrected for biases. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1991. The quarterly Plant and Equipment Survey wilt be discontinued and replaced bv a new semiannual indicator survey of investment plans. The first new survey results are scheduled for release in February 1995. See Plant and Equipment Expenditures and Plans release of September 8, 1994 for details. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In August, civilian employment rose by 714,000 and unemployment rose by 18,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS * MILLIONS OF PERSONS< 134 134 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 130 130 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 126 126 122 122 118 118 \ CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 114 114 110 110 106 106 1994 * 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1984 1985 1986 3 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993. Unemployment Civilian employment Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 188,081 189,686 191,329 193,142 195,034 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 1,688 1,637 1,564 1,566 1,485 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 125,557 126,424 126,867 128,548 129,525 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 119,030 119,550 118,440 119,164 120,791 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 123,869 124,787 125,303 126,982 128,040 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 117,914 116,877 117,598 119,306 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 3,199 3,186 3,233 3,207 3,074 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 114,142 114,728 113,644 114,391 116,232 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 4,657 4,860 5,767 6,116 6,106 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 9,384 8,734 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 1,375 1,504 2,323 3,354 3,052 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 66.5 66.4 66.0 66.3 66.2 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 63.0 62.7 61.6 61.4 61.6 195,275 195,453 195,626 195,791 195,993 1,482 1,482 1,475 1,470 1,461 129,816 129,590 130,055 130,132 130,359 121,174 121,050 121,416 121,802 122,122 128,334 128,108 128,580 128,662 128,898 119,692 119,568 119,941 120,332 120,661 3,005 3,093 3,021 3,114 3,096 116,687 116,475 116,920 117,218 117,565 6,216 6,173 5,957 5,904 5,934 8,642 8,540 8,639 8,330 8,237 3,000 3,047 3,030 2,971 2,864 66.2 66.0 66.2 66.2 66.3 61.8 61.6 61.8 61.9 62.0 130,667 130,776 130,580 130,747 130,774 130,248 130,457 131,189 121,971 122,258 122,037 122,338 122,872 122,430 122,452 123,166 3,331 3,391 3,426 3,459 3,435 3,235 3,278 3,444 118,639 118,866 118,611 118,880 119,437 119,195 119,173 119,722 4,842 4,384 4,762 4,613 4,688 4,590 4,224 4,092 8,696 8,518 8,543 8,408 7,902 7,817 8,005 8,023 3,027 3,103 3,110 2,951 2,801 2,683 2,855 2,793 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.6 66.5 66.2 66.3 66.6 62.2 62.3 62.2 62.3 62.5 62.2 62.2 62.5 Employment' including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Total Part time for economic reasons * Total 15 weeks and over 1993: Sept Oct Nov Dec ... 1994: Jan 4 Feb Mar May , •* July 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. Civilian Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 * Data beginning January- 1994 are based on the revised Current Population Survey and are not directly comparable with dala for earlier periods. For details, see Employment and Earnings, Febman- 1994. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In August, the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1 percent. PERCENT * (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT * (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 20 BLACK 15 10 10 N^-> ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS \ 0 11 i 11 1990 1990 1994 1993 1994 *UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCtL OF ECONOMiC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all work- ers 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993: Aug .... Sept .... Oct Nov .... Dec 1 By sex and age civilian work- ers 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.4 6.6 7.3 6.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.4 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.4 1994- Jan * Feb Mar May ^ " July 1 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 Men 20 years and over 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 6.3 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 Women 20 years Both sexes and 16-19 over years 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.7 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.7 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 15.0 15.5 18.6 20.0 19.0 18.4 17.9 18.9 18.3 17.8 18.4 17.9 17.8 19.9 18.3 16.9 17.7 17.5 Black White 12 and Black other 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.5 6.0 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.1 12.7 11.7 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 12.4 14.1 12.9 5.9 5.8 6.1 5.6 5.6 11.5 11.4 10.9 11.3 10.7 12.5 12.5 11.9 12.5 11.5 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 11.6 11.3 11.3 10.8 10.4 10.2 10.4 10.8 13.1 12.9 12.5 11.8 11.5 11.2 11.2 11.5 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Revised definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. 3 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 2 By selected groups By race All Experienced wage and salary workers 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 6.5 7.1 , 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 Married Women men, who spouse present maintain families 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.5 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.9 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.0 10.2 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.1 8.9 8.7 7.8 8.9 Fulltime work- ers 2 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.0 5.3 5.1 5.4 6.7 7.4 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.1 Parttime workers 2 7.4 7.5 7.4 6.9 6.4 6.2 6.3 6,9 7.4 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.2 5.8 6.0 6.4 Labor force time lost (percent) 3 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.9 6.2 7.6 8.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.2 4 Data beginning January 1994 are based on the revised Current Population Survey and are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. For details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In August, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 15-26 weeks fell, the percentage for 5-14 weeks rose, and the percentage for 27 weeks and over was unchanged. The mean duration of unemployment was unchanged at 19.2 weeks and the median duration fell to 9.0 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION * PERCENT DISTRIBUTION * 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT JOB LOSERS^ LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 40 ^^ * " / 5-14 WEEKS 15-26 WEEKS ' 20 JOB LEAVERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER v --'—? NEW ENTRANTS 1 1 1 u_lj I i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 199] 1992 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I/BEGINNING JANUARY 1 994, JOB LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1993 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) 5-14 weeks 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 48.6 46.1 40.1 34.9 36.2 35.2 35.7 36.4 35.4 37.5 38.4 30.6 32.8 34.7 33.4 35.6 35.5 32.5 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 32.0 32.3 29.4 28.9 30.1 28.7 28.7 28.9 27.5 26.8 32.5 30.3 29.5 31.0 31.0 29.2 32.7 State programs Number of weeks Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 11.8 14.5 15.2 14.6 14.5 15.2 14.8 14.6 14.1 15.1 16.2 15.0 14.2 13.9 14.4 15.7 15.2 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 9.9 10.1 13.0 20.6 20.4 20.1 20.5 20.1 21.1 21.0 19.7 20.8 21.9 21.6 21.7 19.1 19.6 19.6 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 11.9 12.1 13.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.9 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.1 19.6 18.3 19.2 19.2 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 5.4 6.9 8.8 8.4 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 8.9 9.3 9.0 Job losers ' Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 24.8 23.7 24.6 24.0 24.3 24.1 25.0 24.6 32.6 33.7 35.5 37.9 36.5 36.3 34.7 34.8 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 10.4 9.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 9.6 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 6.0 7.3 8.1 Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992.. 1993 1993- Aug Sept . Oct Nov . Dec 1994- Jan 3 . Feb Mar ... May July 1 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 9,384 8,734 8,642 8,540 8,639 8,330 8,237 8,696 8,518 8,543 8,408 7,902 7,817 8,005 8,023 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen <VCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad <RR> programs included through 1991. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 2 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 45.7 48.3 54.7 56.4 54.6 56.2 55.0 55.2 53.4 54.2 51.1 48.6 46.9 44.4 45.4 47.5 48.6 47.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.6 10.4 10.8 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.4 8.8 10.3 10.1 9.7 10.2 10.2 9.4 9.4 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,081 2,158 2,522 3,342 3,245 2,751 2,819 2,823 2,815 2,776 2,694 2,720 2,791 2,744 2,722 2,755 2,760 2,738 2,679 377 396 378 328 310 330 388 447 408 341 329 328 341 335 325 369 351 340 350 367 351 349 327 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,135 2,205 2,575 3,406 3,339 2,838 2,721 2,421 2,324 2,563 2,794 3,511 3,506 3,396 2,872 ' 2,626 2,634 ' 2,578 2,514 Data beginning January 1994 are based on the revised Current Population Survey and are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. For details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 179,000 in August. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 34 100 - 80 - ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 - 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES \ 1990 1991 1992 CONSTRUCTION nil .mill HIM 1993 ' 1990 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1991 1992 |, Minium 1994 1993 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVJSERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagricultural employment 94,408 1985 97,387 99,344 1986 1987 101,958 1988 105,210 1989 107,895 1990 109,419 1991 108,256 1992 108,604 110,525 1993 . 110,714 1993: Aug 110,923 Sept Get 111,112 111,366 Nov 111,610 Dec 111,711 1994: Jan 111,919 Feb Mar 112,298 112,699 Apr 112,951 May June '... 113,334 July '.... 113,585 Aug ".... 113,764 1984 Manufacturing Total4 24,718 24,842 24,533 24,674 25,125 25,254 24,905 23,745 23,231 23,256 23,207 23,206 23,245 23,281 23,298 23,328 23,327 23,395 23,506 23,519 23,576 23,595 23,620 Construction 4,380 4,668 4,810 4,958 5,098 5,171 5,120 4,650 4,492 4,642 4,659 4,667 4,700 4,733 4,738 4,744 4,745 4,806 4,893 4,907 4,927 4,949 4,943 Total Durable g Nondurable goods 19,372 19,248 18,947 18,999 19,314 19,391 19,076 18,406 18,104 18,003 17,946 17,934 17,940 17,944 17,942 17,968 17,970 17,980 18,007 18,009 18,044 18,045 18,077 11,476 11,458 11,195 11,154 11,363 11,394 11,109 10,569 10,277 10,172 10,121 10,123 10,135 10,142 10,153 10,182 10,182 10,190 10,216 10,217 10,253 10,250 10,278 7,896 7J90 7,752 7,845 7,951 7,997 7,968 7,837 7,827 7,831 7,825 7,811 7,805 7,802 7,789 7,786 7,788 7,790 7,791 7,792 7,791 7,795 7,799 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricuitural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 Total 69,690 72,544 74,811 77,284 80,086 82,642 84,514 84,511 85,373 87,269 87,507 87,717 87,867 88,085 88,312 88,383 88,592 88,903 89,193 89,432 89,758 89,990 90,144 Transportation and public utilities 5,156 5,233 5,247 5,362 5,514 5,625 5,793 5,762 5,721 5,787 5,786 5,783 5,798 5,800 5,792 5,793 5,803 5,816 5,759 5,843 5,849 5,854 5,858 Wholesale trade 5,568 5,727 5,761 5,848 6,030 6,187 6,173 6,081 5,997 5,958 5,954 5,962 5,965 5,971 5,976 5,990 6,003 6,013 6,028 6,037 6,049 6,053 6,071 Retail trade 16,512 17,315 17,880 18,422 19,023 19,475 19,601 19,284 19,356 19,717 19,770 19,805 19,822 19,848 19,931 19,924 19,965 20,026 20,137 20,153 20,279 20,379 20,379 Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services 5,684 5,948 6,273 6,533 6,630 6,668 6,709 6,646 6,602 6,712 6,724 6,735 6,748 6,763 6,769 6,771 6,776 6,781 6,791 6,787 6,798 6,798 6,803 20,746 21,927 22,957 24,110 25,504 26,907 27,934 28,336 29,052 30,278 30,451 30,545 30,661 30,816 30,926 31,004 31,129 31,326 31,497 31,598 31,765 31,897 32,020 Total 16,024 16,394 16,693 17,010 17,386 17,779 18,304 18,402 18,645 18,817 18,822 18,887 18,873 18,887 18,918 18,901 18,916 18,941 18,981 19,014 19,018 19,009 19,013 Federal 2,807 2,875 2,899 2,943 2,971 2,988 3,085 2,966 2,969 2,915 2,906 2,902 2,901 2,900 2,915 2,893 2,892 2,884 2,882 2,870 2,859 2,860 2,860 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervigory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Period Total private nonagricultural ' 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 . 1993 1993: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1994- Jan Feb Mar May July ' Aug * Total Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural ' Overtime Current dollars Total private nonagricultural ' 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Current dollars 1982 dollars = Current dollars Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.4 34.5 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.7 41.0 41.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 $8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.28 9.66 10.01 10.32 10.57 10.83 $7.80 7.77 7.81 7.73 7.69 7.64 7.52 7.45 7.41 7.39 $9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.19 10.48 10.83 11.18 11,46 11.74 $292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.02 334.24 345.35 353.98 363.61 373.64 $274.73 271.16 271.94 269.16 266.79 264.22 259.47 255.40 254.99 254.87 $374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.81 429.68 441.86 455.03 469.86 486.04 $458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 495.73 513.17 526.01 533.40 537.70 551.81 $174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 188.72 194.40 198.48 205.06 209.95 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 34.6 34.4 34.5 34.6 34.5 41.5 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 10.86 10.88 10.92 10.94 10.96 7.39 7.40 7.39 7.39 7.40 11.77 11.82 11.84 11.87 11.93 375.76 374.27 376.74 378.52 378.12 255.62 254.43 255.07 255.76 255.14 488.46 490.53 492.54 494.98 497.48 557.67 553.34 554.11 562.49 559.11 211.26 208.78 212.42 211.68 212.26 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.3 3.2 34.8 34.3 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.5 41.7 41.3 42.1 42.2 42.1 42.0 41.9 42.0 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8 11.02 11.03 11.02 11.05 11.09 11.08 11.11 11.13 7.43 7.42 7.39 7.40 7.42 7.39 7.38 7.38 11.95 12.01 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.03 12.06 12.10 383.50 378.33 381.29 383.44 385.93 383.37 385.52 383.99 258.60 254.60 255.73 256.83 258.15 255.58 255.99 253.96 498.32 496.01 505.20 506.40 505.20 505.26 505.31 508.20 558.44 545.25 561.44 559.02 570.86 567.73 575.25 571.52 214.89 212.21 214.73 216.05 216.63 216.63 216.92 217.21 3.7 2.5 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.4 1 z Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) (on a 1982 = 100 base). 1982 dollars Current dollars 0.8 1.3 .3 1.0 -.9 1.0 -1.8 1.6 -.2 .0 .1 .5 .5 2 .7 1.3 .1 1.2 1.3 .7 .6 .3 — .4 3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Percent change from Index (June 1989 = 100) 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Not seasonally adjusted Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 84.0 87.3 90.1 93.1 97.6 102.3 107.0 111.7 115.6 119.8 84.8 88.3 91.1 94.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 110.0 112.9 116.4 1991- Mar 108.4 109.7 110.8 111.9 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.7 116.8 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.7 121.8 107.3 108.4 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.6 112.1 113.0 113.9 114.6 115.6 116.5 117.1 118.1 1984: 198519861987198819891990199119921993: 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 3.6 81.7 84.6 87.5 90.5 96.7 102.6 109.4 116.2 122.2 128.3 Seasonally adjusted Sept Dec 1992- Mar Sept Dec 1993- Mar Sept Dec 1994- Mar . 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 111.2 113.3 115.2 116.8 118.2 119.5 121.3 122.9 124.7 126.4 127.7 129.1 130.2 131.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 .9 .8 .8 .9 1.0 .9 .8 .8 .7 .9 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.6 3.1 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.2 5.2 5.0 Not seasonally adjusted 1.0 1.0 .7 .8 .7 .6 .4 .8 .8 .6 .9 .8 .5 .9 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 .5 .3 .5 .4 .0 .1 .9 .9 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.3 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.4 3.9 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output ' Business sector Hours of 2all persons Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour * Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1982 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989.. . 1990 1991 1992 1993 102.3 104.8 106.3 108.5 109.6 110.7 109.9 110.7 112.1 115.5 117.3 102.5 104.7 105.6 107.7 108.6 109.6 108.6 109.1 110.7 113.7 115.5 104.1 112.6 116.7 119.9 124.8 130.1 132.3 133.3 132.0 135.5 140.6 104.4 113.0 116.8 120.1 125.0 130.6 132.7 133.5 132.2 135.5 141.0 101.8 107.4 109.8 110.5 113.8 117.5 120.4 120.5 117.7 117.4 119.9 101.9 107.9 110.7 111.5 115.1 119.1 122.2 122.4 119.5 119.2 122.1 103.8 108.3 113.2 118.8 123.1 128.5 133.0 140.6 147.4 154.9 160.6 104.0 108.3 112.8 118.4 122.5 127.7 132.0 139.2 146.2 153.7 158.8 100.6 100.6 101.5 104.6 104.6 104.8 103.5 103.8 104.4 106.6 107.3 100.8 100.6 101.1 104.3 104.1 104.2 102.7 102.8 103.6 105.7 106.1 101.5 103.4 106.5 109.5 112.3 116.0 121.0 127.1 131.5 134.2 136.9 101.5 103.4 106.8 110.0 112.8 116.5 121.5 127.6 132.1 135.2 137.5 103.4 107.7 111.2 113.6 116.6 120.8 126.1 131.2 135.9 138.8 141.5 104.0 107.6 111.6 114.2 117.2 121.4 126.5 131.8 136.7 139.9 142.6 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 101.1 103.1 105.4 107.0 108.3 110.6 110.9 109.7 110.5 113.0 101.1 103.3 105.3 106.0 107.4 109.5 110.0 108.5 108.9 111.5 100.0 107.5 114.4 118.0 120.6 127.4 131.7 132.3 132.1 132.6 100.0 108.1 114.8 118.2 120.8 127.6 132.5 132.7 132.2 132.8 98.9 104.3 108.5 110.2 111.3 115.1 118.8 120.6 119.6 117.4 98.9 104.7 109.0 111.4 112.5 116.5 120.5 122.3 121.4 119.2 102.1 105.3 109.9 115.6 120.9 125.8 130.6 134.9 143.5 150.1 102.1 105.2 109.9 115.0 120.5 125.1 129.8 133.9 142.2 148.8 100.6 100.5 100.7 102.4 105.6 105.1 104.7 103.4 103.4 105.1 100.6 100.4 100.7 101.8 105.2 104.6 104.1 102.6 102.5 104.2 101.0 102.1 104.3 108.0 111.6 113.7 117.9 123.0 129.8 132.9 101.0 101.9 104.4 108.5 112.2 114.3 118.0 123.4 130.5 133.5 101.1 104.8 109.0 112.4 114.6 117.9 122.8 127.8 133.2 136.9 101.4 105.2 109.0 112.9 115.2 118.5 123.4 128.2 134.0 137.9 I 114.5 114.8 115.9 116.8 112.6 113.1 113.9 115.0 133.7 134.4 136.1 137.9 133.6 134.4 135.9 137.9 116.8 117.1 117.4 118.1 118.7 118.8 119.3 119.9 152.2 153.7 156.0 157.8 150.9 152.6 154.7 156.5 105.9 106.0 106.8 107.2 104.9 105.3 106.0 106.3 133.0 133.9 134.7 135.1 134.0 134.9 135.9 136.1 138.0 138.8 138.3 140.1 139.0 139.9 139.5 141.2 n m 116.3 116.5 117.4 119.1 114.5 114.6 115.8 117.2 138.1 139.6 140.9 143.9 138.3 139.9 141.5 144.3 118.8 119.8 120.0 120.8 120.8 122.0 122.3 123.1 158.9 160.1 161.3 162.3 157.4 158.3 159.4 160.4 107.1 107.1 107.5 107.3 106.1 105.9 106.2 106.0 136.6 137.5 137.4 136.3 137.5 138.1 137.7 136.9 140.8 141.4 141.6 142.1 142.0 142.5 142.8 143.1 1994- I 7 119.9 119.1 118.0 117.2 145.8 146.9 146.1 147.1 121.6 123.3 123.8 125.5 164.8 164.9 162.8 163.1 108.4 107.7 107.0 106.5 137.4 138.5 137.9 139.1 142.6 143.8 143.5 145.1 1992: n m IV 1993: I.. IV n *... Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1991: HI IV 1992" I n m TV 1993: I n m I n"... 2.5 2.2 .8 2.0 .8 1.0 -.9 .4 1.5 2.7 1.6 4.1 8.2 3.6 2.8 4.1 4.3 1.7 .7 -1.0 2.7 3.8 4.4 8.2 3.4 2.8 4.1 4.4 1.7 .6 -1.0 2.4 4.1 1.8 5.6 2.1 .6 3.0 3.3 2.5 .1 23 -.3 2.1 1.9 5.9 2.5 .8 3.2 3.4 2.6 .2 -2.4 -.3 2.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 5.0 3.6 4.4 3.5 5.7 -4.8 5.1 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 5.0 3.5 4.2 3.3 5.5 5.0 5.1 3.4 0.6 .0 .9 3.1 — .1 .2 -1.3 .3 .6 2.0 .7 0.8 -.2 .6 3.1 -.2 .1 -1.4 .1 .8 2.0 .4 1.5 1.9 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.0 3.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.1 3.5 2.4 1.7 3.4 4.1 3.3 2.2 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.1 3.5 2.2 1.9 4.0 3.5 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.2 4.2 3.7 2.3 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.6 1.8 .9 1.2 1.1 1.2 -.4 -.9 -.5 -.6 4.4 5.3 4.6 5.0 1.2 2.0 1.4 1.7 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.3 1.7 2.6 2.3 5.4 1.2 3.8 3.3 4.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 3.4 2.2 4.9 5.6 2.4 2.5 4.4 6.2 -1.9 1.1 1.1 2.2 .6 1.5 2.2 5.8 4.0 6.2 4.6 5.7 4.6 5.8 4.6 3.1 .7 3.0 1.3 3.0 1.2 2.7 1.3 .3 2.8 2.4 1.2 1.4 2.6 3.0 .6 3.3 2.2 -1.3 5.1 3.2 2.5 -1.2 5.1 -1.7 .7 3.4 5.7 .5 4.1 4.9 .6 4.2 4.0 8.6 1.0 4.7 4.9 7.9 2.4 3.5 .6 2.8 2.9 4.2 .8 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.4 -.2 .1 1.2 -.5 -.8 -.6 1.0 -.6 4.6 2.5 -.3 -3.1 4.2 2.0 -1.2 -2.4 2.3 1.7 .6 1.2 2.2 1.6 .7 .8 2.9 -2.7 2.9 -2.5 5.5 2.9 5.2 2.7 2.6 5.8 2.3 5.4 6.2 .3 6.1 .8 4.0 -2.4 3.9 -1.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4 1.5 3.5 1.2 4.4 -1.8 IV 1994: 2.3 2.4 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 7 .7 1.3 3.0 1.6 1 2 -1.8 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1987 dollars. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. * Hourly irly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. *Based on GDP data released on August 26, 1994. GDP data shown elsewhere in this issue of Economic Indicators were released on September 29, 1994. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in August. INDEX, 1987 = 100- (RATIO SCALE) 160 FINAL PRODUQS 150 BUSINESS 140 EQUIPMENT INDEX, 1987= 100' (RATIO SCALEI 140 f S\ ,' \ ^y 130 ^s~^- 120 ^ v_^-/—f 110 ^ 100 '" "V •^-''~ """<' CONSUMER GOODS • •*.' "\ 90 7'\ DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 80 's ~"S,X 70 \,_ 1 M [ I 140 UTILITIES AND MINING PER( 130 m i l m i l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I N N M i l l I! 1 | ! M i l l 1 1 1 1 1 :ENT- 86 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE [TOTAL INDUSTRY] _ UTILITIES . 120 ^ 84 ^" /I 82 ^ 110 MINING V 80 100 78 90 76 1994 1993 1 1 1 1 1 \S*r*^/'^J M i l l 1990 1 M 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1991 1 1 1 1 1 j 1 1 I! 1992 1 1 M 1 ! 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1993 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1987 = 100 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Capacity utilization rate, percent l Industry production indexes, 1987 = 100 Total industrial production Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 104.4 106.0 106.0 104.1 106.5 110.9 9.3 1.7 .9 4.9 4.4 1.5 .0 -1.8 2.3 4.1 89.3 91.6 94.3 100.0 104.7 106.4 106.1 103.7 106.8 111.7 88.4 91.8 93.9 100.0 106.6 108.6 107.4 103.9 107.0 114.3 90.8 91.5 94.9 100.0 102.3 103.7 104.4 103.5 106.5 108.7 111.9 109.0 101.0 100.0 101.3 100.0 102.0 100.1 98.2 97.3 97,0 99.5 96.3 100.0 105.0 108.7 109.9 112.3 112.0 116.2 81.1 80.3 79.2 81.5 83.7 83.6 82.0 79.1 79.7 81.5 80.4 79.5 79.1 81.6 83.6 83.1 81.1 77.8 78.6 80.6 1993: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 111.1 111.3 111.9 112.8 114.0 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.6 111.8 112.1 112.9 114.0 115.4 113.9 115.0 116.2 118.0 120.1 109.2 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.7 96.6 97.4 98.0 96.9 96.9 118.4 116.2 114.9 116.1 115.8 81.4 81.4 81.7 82.2 82.9 80.3 80.4 80.8 81.5 82.3 1994: Jan Feb Mar 114.6 115.0 115.9 116.0 116.6 117.3 117.7 118.5 4.9 4.6 5.4 5.0 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.7 115.6 116.1 117.2 117.7 118.5 118.8 119.4 120.6 120.4 120.9 121.7 122.5 122.9 123.2 124.3 126.2 109.6 110.1 111.7 111.8 113.1 113.3 113.5 113.8 97.0 98.8 99.5 99.9 99.1 99.7 98.4 97.6 121.9 119.8 118.0 114.4 114.7 119.5 118.0 116.5 83.2 83.3 83.8 83.7 83.9 84.2 84.3 84.7 82.2 82.4 83.0 83.1 83.4 83.4 83.7 84.3 May r. July r Aug" 1 . Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1987=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total * Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 1984.. 1985 1986 . 1987 1988. 1989 1990 1991 1992 . 1993 91.0 94.2 95.7 100.0 104.8 106.8 107.0 105.3 108.0 112.7 92.8 93.7 96.8 100.0 102.9 104.0 103.4 102.8 105.7 108.7 91.0 91.6 94.5 100.0 104.6 106.6 102.3 95.2 102.0 110.5 93.4 94.4 97.6 100.0 102.4 103.2 103.8 104.9 106.8 108.2 89.2 94.8 94.5 100.0 107.6 110.9 112.1 108.9 111.2 118.5 85.4 91.1 93.1 100.0 110.7 115.5 116.9 115.7 122.2 134.6 78.9 89.4 96.0 100.0 99.7 100.1 98.8 91.6 83.1 74.8 86.2 88.3 91.9 100.0 101.8 102.0 101.2 96.8 99.0 102.6 86.2 89.1 93.8 100.0 101.5 100.5 98.2 91.0 93.3 96.8 86.2 87.7 90.7 100.0 102.0 103.0 103.2 100.7 102.8 106.5 96.6 96.6 95.9 100.0 105.0 106.7 106.8 105.4 107.7 111.9 103.8 103.4 99.5 100.0 102.2 103.1 104.2 104.5 103.9 103.7 1993- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 112.7 113.1 113.8 114.6 115.4 108.6 108.5 109.2 109.7 110.1 107.3 108.7 112.7 115.8 118.2 109.0 108.4 108.2 107.9 107.9 118.6 119.8 120.4 121.8 123.1 134.8 136.3 137.7 139.7 141.8 74.0 73.7 72.7 72.5 71.5 103.3 103.0 103.5 104.3 105.4 97.3 97.8 98.6 99.5 101.3 107.2 106.4 106.7 107.5 108.1 112.1 112.2 112.8 113.9 115.5 103.7 103.1 103.0 103.1 103.2 1994: Jan Feb Mar Apr May r 116.2 117.2 117.5 117.3 117.8 118.8 119.5 120.7 110.9 111.6 111.9 111.2 111.7 112.9 113.3 114.1 119.0 120.9 118.3 117.4 115.5 116.4 117.7 121.1 108.6 109.0 110.1 109.4 110.6 111.9 112.1 112.2 123.9 125.3 125.7 126.2 126.6 127.2 128.4 130.1 142.9 145.0 145.5 146.3 147.3 148.2 150,1 152.6 71.0 69.9 69.9 69.8 68.9 68.5 67.9 68.2 105.7 105.1 105.9 106.7 107.5 107.9 107.9 107.9 100.5 98.9 99.7 101.8 102.9 102.8 102.9 102.9 109.2 109.3 110.0 109.9 110.6 111.3 111.3 111.2 116.0 116.2 117.7 117.9 118.6 119.1 119.2 119.9 104.8 105.6 105.6 105.2 104.6 106.0 104.6 103.8 July r Aue * 1 . . Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992. 1993 Iron and steel Transportation equipment Fabricated metal products Industrial machinery and equipment Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 102.4 101.8 93.7 100.0 108.7 107.2 106.5 98.3 101.1 106.5 105.9 104.5 90.8 100.0 112.7 111.2 111.5 100.5 104.7 111.6 93.3 94.5 93.8 100.0 104.2 102.8 99.5 94.9 95.6 99.5 80.8 86.8 90.3 100.0 113.0 117.3 117.6 113.8 123.4 144.1 94.1 93.1 94.3 100.0 108.5 111.0 111.4 112.7 115.7 127.5 83.1 91.8 96.9 100.0 105.2 109.5 107.0 101.9 102.8 104.2 90.6 99.0 98.5 100.0 105.7 106.9 101.0 94.5 106.4 120.7 86.0 88.0 95.1 100.0 100.1 99.4 97.1 90.6 96.5 100.6 95.7 92.6 96.3 100.0 98.1 1 95.0 92.2 91.8 93.6 93.1 84.5 87.6 90.6 100.0 100.9 101.1 100.8 96.9 99.0 101.3 91.4 92.1 91.4 94.9 94.6 • 97.4 100.0 100.0 106.0 101.5 109.2 102.5 111.8 103.7 111.4 105.3 114.3 107.7 117.8 108.6 1993- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 107.2 107.3 106.1 109.8 113.0 112.8 112.4 113.3 114.4 119.1 99.6 99.6 100.7 102.1 102.6 147.1 148.4 150.3 152.0 155.7 129.5 130.9 131.4 132.1 134.3 98.5 100.4 104.2 108.3 110.7 110.6 115.1 124.1 132.4 138.5 100.9 101.8 104.6 104.9 105.2 93.2 92.1 92.1 92.6 93.1 100.9 101.1 101.6 101.7 101.9 118.8 118.3 117.8 118.8 119.3 109.6 109.0 109.0 108.4 109.0 1994- Jan Feb Mar 110.5 107.6 111.1 114.4 115.4 112.4 113.5 114.1 115.8 111.5 117.2 122.2 123.2 118.6 119.4 120.1 103.9 103.0 104.1 105.0 105.1 105.9 106.5 107.3 156.3 158.8 161.4 162.8 165.0 165.8 169.0 171.2 134.8 136.1 138.3 140.2 141.9 143.9 148.0 148.9 111.9 113.0 110.1 108.8 106.5 106.7 104.5 110.0 142.1 146.1 139.9 137.5 132.5 132.9 129.6 141.1 105.2 102.8 102.9 103.8 105.8 105.8 104.0 104.6 92.4 92.9 94.2 94.6 95.3 95.3 96.0 96.0 101.7 102.3 103.6 103.9 104.4 105.0 104.3 105.0 119.3 119.9 121.7 121.2 123.3 123.6 123.6 123.8 109.2 110.1 112.2 111.8 112.3 112.7 114.0 113.8 ... . . ... ... May , "': July ' Am?" Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1987=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989. 1990 1991 . 1992 1993 348.8 377.4 407.7 278.6 299.5 419.4 328.7 337.5 345.5 334.7 293.5 432.3 443.7 442.2 403.6 435.4 466.4 323.1 316.1 341.1 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 196.6 182.9 157.8 187.9 210.5 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 129.6 144.1 74.0 89.8 84.4 84.0 88.0 94.3 96.4 77.0 65.8 66.4 50.8 51.3 51.6 50.1 51.5 54.6 55.4 58.7 62.5 64.2 83 91 96 100 101 105 95 89 97 104 70.2 77.8 84.6 90.6 94.7 98.2 107.5 110.1 119.2 125.3 Annual rales Annual rates 1993- Aug 464.7 470.8 477.8 490.2 499.9 339.3 342.5 350.2 360.4 367.3 363.9 May ' 488.5 485.9 496.0 497.0 504.4 July » 506.1 506.1 Aug ". 505.0 Sept Oct Nov Dee 1994: 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar 361.9 371.7 374.1 378.2 379.3 377.2 373.9 208.5 211.5 216.6 222.4 228.5 229.8 233.3 236.8 238.0 241.2 240.7 239.4 237.5 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 973 961 783 577 556 575 143.1 145.3 149.5 154.1 159.5 65.8 66.1 67.3 70.8 71.8 64.9 65.0 66.3 67.3 67.0 125.4 128.3 127.6 129.8 132.7 106 106 110 112 107 533 544 561 566 628 160.8 164.2 167.0 168.4 170.1 168.9 168.2 166.4 67.3 66.3 70.3 73.3 73.7 73.5 73.0 73.2 66.7 62.3 64.6 62.8 63.4 65.1 64.9 64.2 124.6 124.0 124.4 122.9 126.1 126.8 128.8 131.1 107 110 113 106 110 108 109 110 633 592 742 612 642 624 750 690 Sources: Department of Commerce {Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1984 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1,199.7 1,287.6 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1 unit 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 1,029.9 1,125.7 2-4 units 5 or more units 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 55.2 37.5 35.6 30.7 29.4 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 317.6 260.4 137.9 139.0 132.6 Units authorized 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 1,338.4 1,110.8 948.8 1,094.9 1,199.1 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period * 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 1,422.8 1,308.0 1,090.8 1,157.5 1,192.7 639 688 750 671 676 650 534 509 610 666 353 346 357 366 368 365 321 284 266 294 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 2 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 *7.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1993- July Sept Oct Nov Dee 1994' Jan Feb Mar May July ' Aug" 1 2 1,245 1,319 1,359 1,409 1,406 1,612 1,076 1,178 1,160 1,231 1,248 1,383 53 17 32 31 30 21 116 124 167 147 128 208 1,169 1,234 1,265 1,298 1,363 1,474 1,097 1,248 1,172 1,248 1,248 1,289 647 645 738 723 766 817 277 286 288 291 294 294 1,271 1,328 1,519 1,471 1,491 1,358 1,413 1,442 1,125 1,121 ,271 ,211 ,200 ,163 ,199 ,167 23 33 33 32 36 19 32 33 123 174 215 228 255 176 182 242 1,312 1,252 1,313 1,380 1,357 1,316 1,337 1,354 1,216 1,334 1,273 1,354 ' 1,446 1,333 1,274 642 697 722 673 692 629 641 703 296 298 298 298 r 301 314 316 320 Seasonally adjusted. Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993 data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 7.0 6.9 7.5 7.4 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In July, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.7 percent and inventories rose $2.6 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.8 percent in August, following no change in July. BiaiONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) ,000 900 800 •—_—^— _— MAN JFACTURING AND TRAiDE INVENTOf IES 700 250 RETAIL INVENTORIES .— 200 600 ,.„,-' \ \ M/\NUFACTURIh*3 AhiD TRADE SAlfS 500 150 RETAIL SALES 400 100 300 RATIO* 1.80 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.70 RETAIL 1.60 200 %^XVK>--N /w 1.50 MANUFACTURING ^ 1.40 U— ^-s.\/ .—* 1.30 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1990 1991 1992 1993 * SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade l COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales Sales Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Ketail Wholesale Period 2 T994 Inventories 8 Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 3 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade l Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 411,427 423,940 431,786 459,107 496,819 523,260 542,349 537,598 559,799 592,201 651,551 665,835 664,624 711,725 767,538 813,637 837,120 832,852 841,831 865,584 113,502 114,816 116,326 124,340 135,170 143,754 148,859 146,834 152,031 160,213 144,223 149,155 155,445 165,814 180,535 188,566 196,935 201,462 208,757 216,586 585,564 591,889 595,536 599,649 606,711 612,462 857,693 858,979 860,885 862,110 866,720 865,584 160,502 161,054 161,020 161,316 162,135 161,797 213,106 214,813 215,071 214,687 216,011 216,586 610,456 619,103 627,781 625,080 627,524 632,863 628,537 867,692 871,842 870,189 874,989 885,185 889,100 891,660 163,483 165,330 167,981 167,408 167,897 169,208 168,529 217,278 218,820 217,359 219,605 223,213 223,098 224,883 1984 1985 . 1986 1987 1988 1989 . 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993- July T Auff Sept Get Nov Dec 1994: Jan Feb Mar May .... June r July p .... Aiiff p 1 r 107,243 114,586 120,803 128,442 138,108 146,782 154,031 155,246 163,258 173,468 r 173,382 174,279 174,428 177,862 179,002 180,943 178,643 181,958 185,303 183,429 183,395 185,089 T 185,138 186,561 See page 21 for manufacturing. Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasontlly adjusted totals for month. 2 20 69,369 73,075 75,746 80,453 85,626 91,888 98,088 100,790 104,316 108,085 167,812 181,881 186,510 207,836 219,581 238,160 241,117 245,042 253,836 271,573 79,074 88,315 89,983 105,481 112,690 121,716 121,666 119,739 123,520 135,757 88,738 93,566 96,527 102,355 106,891 116,444 119,451 125,303 130,316 135,816 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.49 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.50 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.58 1.56 1.55 1.52 1.52 65,500 107,882 ' 66,372 ' 107,907 65,899 108,529 68,459 109,403 69,614 109,388 71,048 109,895 263,026 262,774 265,125 267,122 270,528 271,573 128,561 128,243 129,416 131,360 134,023 135,757 134,465 134,531 135,709 135,762 136,505 135,816 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.41 1.52 1.51 1.52 1.50 1.51 1.50 69,615 70,860 73,306 72,388 71,940 72,805 r 72,332 73,283 271,506 272,954 273,058 274,739 279,590 282,896 280,210 137,492 138,061 137,817 139,242 141,314 142,792 141,477 134,014 134,893 135,241 135,497 138,276 140,104 138,733 1.42 1.41 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.40 1.42 1.52 1.50 1.47 1.50 1.52 1.53 1.51 37,873 41,510 45,057 47,989 52,482 54,894 55,944 54,456 58,942 65,383 3 109,028 111,098 111,997 111,041 111,455 112,284 r 112,806 113,278 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In July, manufacturers' shipments and new and unfilled orders fell, and inventories rose. In August, according to advance estimates, durable goods shipments and new orders rose. BIWONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 320 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 480 440 400 360 SHIPMENTS TOTAL 280 240 r~^^1 •> -NX~ INVL-NIOKIbS — V \ TOTAL 320 200 280 160 120 "v V ~ 240 s DL RABLE GOOD ••' / " ~i \ 1 DURABLE Gnops 200 160 NOND JRABLEGOO 3S HIM HIM 80 Mill 1 1M 1 \ 120 NO MDURABIE GC>ODS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] 320 - NEWORDEPS 80 \ It 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i M 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 Mill 1 1 1 It 1 I 1 1 f 1 TOTAL 280 240 ^^ / v-r- r~^^1 -• ^ 200 niJRABLE GOOC« 160 120 ,,>- .'•„•-•-•' t:; \ / NOND JRABLEGOO 3S 80 M M 1 1 1 1 M t M II 1 1 1 M M 1990 M 1 M 1 1 M 1 1 M M 111 M 1 1 Mill 1991 1993 1992 1 II M 1994 1994 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments I Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders l Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, non-defense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio s Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 .. 1993 1993: July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1994- Jan Feb . MaiApr .. May July" Aug" 190,682 194,538 194,657 206,326 223,541 232,724 239,459 235,518 244,511 258,520 97,940 101,279 103,238 108,128 117,993 121,703 122,387 119,151 125,553 135,981 92,742 93,259 91,419 98,198 105,549 111,022 117,072 116,367 118,958 122,539 339,516 334,799 322,669 338,075 367,422 386,911 399,068 386,348 379,238 377,425 221,330 218,212 212,006 220,776 241,402 256,065 259,988 249,117 237,717 236,303 118,186 116,587 110,663 117,299 126,020 130,846 139,080 137,231 141,521 141,122 192,879 195,706 195,204 209,389 227,026 235,932 240,646 234,354 241,545 255,701 100,164 102,356 103,647 110,809 121,445 124,933 123,556 117,878 122,614 133,273 23,669 24,545 23,983 26,095 30,729 32,725 32,254 29,468 29,653 31,889 92,715 93,351 91,557 98,579 105,581 110,999 117,090 116,476 118,932 122,428 373,529 387,095 393,412 430,288 471,951 510,459 524,846 511,122 475,304 441,947 1.73 1.73 251,680 256,556 260,088 260,471 265,574 269,722 129,257 134,521 137,521 138,153 142,665 146,182 122,423 122,035 122,567 122,318 122,909 123,540 381,561 381,392 380,689 380,301 380,181 377,425 237,937 237,688 237,571 237,632 237,886 236,303 143,624 143,704 143,118 142,669 142,295 141,122 250,566 253,461 255,309 258,270 262,773 266,351 128,520 131,752 133,176 136,613 139,675 142,481 30,093 31,992 30,992 32,825 34,878 35,059 122,046 121,709 122,133 121,657 123,098 123,870 458,195 455,100 450,321 448,120 445,319 441,947 1.52 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.43 1.40 268,330 271,815 274,497 274,243 276,232 278,566 274,870 144,709 146,260 147,388 146,932 148,510 150,010 ' 146,439 155 351 123,621 125,555 127,109 127,311 127,722 128,556 128,431 378,908 380,068 379,772 380,645 382,382 383,106 386,567 238,172 238,832 238,195 239,164 240,539 241,039 243,297 140,736 141,236 141,577 141,481 141,843 142,067 143,270 272,616 271,786 274,691 275,182 277,441 279,788 273,739 148,549 145,882 146,906 147,345 149,412 151,212 ' 145,227 153,990 36,630 36,382 36,127 35,815 35,498 38,055 r 36,319 37,426 124,067 125,904 127,785 127,837 128,029 128,576 128,512 446,233 446,204 446,398 447,337 448,546 449,767 448,636 1.41 1.40 1.38 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.41 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 1.68 1.59 1.58 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.57 1.47 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source:* Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In August, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.7 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods also rose 0.7 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1 percent. INDEX, 1 982 = 1 00 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1 982 = 1 00 (RATIO SCALE) 140 140 FINISHED GOODS PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ' -*•' 130 CONSUMER FOODS " 130 _ — "~ y— "™* X-. } ,'-"^ 120 /f ^f CAPITAL EQUIPMENT /N X **-» „/' •—• % ' / A /' '^r^ ^ ^^~' 100 S~~^ ~sT^ / • " TOTAL .^x-' ^* / / y \/'~ CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS .-' ^^.-^ \ 1 iii ii 1986 90 V s/ A.- 120 j I X. / ~^ ^•~ \ - r~~—^ ' ' / / /~~~^~^ ^^ " ' \, </<" _^ ^-s-— ^^_ ^^ .' \ ^ """**"* ^•" /~ 1 1 ! II 1 ! 1988 1987 1 1 1989 i i i ii1Ii I I 1990 i i i i i i i i ii 1991 i i i i i 1i i i i i 1992 i i i i i 1i i i II 1993 i i i i i i i i i i 90 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Total Durable Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993- Aug Sept Oct Dec 1994- Jan Feb Mar Apr r May July Aue 1 Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Crude materials Total Foods and feeds ' Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 103.7 105.4 104.7 104.6 103.2 107.3 105.4 109.5 112.6 108.0 118.7 113.6 119.2 124.4 121.7 124.1 123.2 123.3 124.7 ' 125.7 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 120.9 123.1 124.4 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 108.9 115.3 118.7 120.8 121.7 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 117.6 120.4 123.9 125.7 128.0 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.8 111.5 115.0 117.3 117.6 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 118.8 122.9 126.7 129.1 131.4 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 112.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 123.0 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 112.0 114.5 114.4 114.7 116.2 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.8 113.3 111.1 110.7 112.7 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.9 116.4 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 103.1 108.9 101.2 100.4 102.4 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 111.2 113.1 105.5 105.1 108.4 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 93.5 94.7 124.1 124.3 124.2 124.3 124.2 125.4 126.1 125.9 126.9 127.7 123.7 123.7 123.6 123.5 123.0 120.6 120.5 120.6 120.3 119.6 128.9 128.6 127.5 128.6 128.9 115.6 115.7 116.2 115.3 114.2 131.8 131.9 131.4 131.8 132.0 122.1 122.3 122.3 122.4 122.1 116.3 116.3 116.4 116.6 116.3 113.8 113.3 114.0 115.3 116.9 116.4 116.4 116.5 116.7 116.3 100.8 101.5 103.7 103.4 101.8 108.6 109.1 107.6 112.7 113.8 92.0 92.8 97.1 93.5 90.4 124.6 125.1 125.3 125.3 125.2 125.2 125.8 126.6 127.2 126.8 127.5 126.9 125.6 125.6 126.2 127.1 123.8 124.5 124.5 124.7 125.0 125.0 125.6 126.3 120.3 121.2 121.1 121.1 121.3 121.2 122.0 122.9 130.0 130.0 130.2 130.5 131.0 131.3 131.5 131.9 114.7 116.0 115.8 115.7 115.7 115.5 116.5 117.7 132.9 133.1 133.4 133.9 134.5 134.6 134.8 135.0 122.4 123.0 123.1 123.0 122.7 122.7 123.4 124.3 116.4 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.7 118.3 119.1 117.3 118.2 117.8 117.4 116.5 114.9 112.6 113.1 116.4 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.9 118.6 119.4 103.5 102.1 103.4 103.2 102.0 102.9 102.0 101.6 112.8 113.8 112.5 111.3 107.4 106.1 103.9 102.4 93.7 90.7 93.6 94.1 94.7 96.9 96.8 97.2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Intermediate materials Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In August, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.4 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.9 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE! 160 160 SEASONAtiY ADJUSTED 150 150 140 140 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 Li 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 1992 1993 1994 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportation Housing All items * Shelter Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Period Seasonally adjusted Rel. imp.3.... 100.0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993: Aue Sept Oct... 103 9 107 6 1096 113.6 118 3 124.0 130 7 136.2 140.3 144.5 . Nov Dec 1994: Feb Mar Apr May ^" June July Auff 1 Food Total ' Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Maintenance and repairs (NSA) Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy 15.8 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 125.1 132.4 136.3 137.9 140.9 41.4 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 123.0 128.5 133.6 137.5 141.2 27. 9 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 132.8 140.0 146.3 151.2 155.7 8.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 138.9 146.7 155.6 160.9 165.0 19.8 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 137.3 144.6 150.2 155.3 160.2 0.2 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 118.0 122.2 126.3 128.6 130.6 7.3 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 111.6 115.3 117.8 121.3 5.9 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.7 131.9 133.7 17.0 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 114.1 120.5 123.8 126.5 130.4 4.0 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 119.2 121.0 125.3 128.4 131.5 3.0 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 88.5 101.2 99.4 99.0 98.0 7.1 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 149.3 162.8 177.0 190.1 201.4 7.0 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 94.3 102.1 102.5 103.0 104.2 77.2 104.6 109.1 113.5 118.2 123.4 129.0 135.5 142.1 147.3 152.2 103.0 102.6 104.5 103.6 102.9 153.0 153.1 153.5 154.1 154.4 102.1 103.7 104.1 103.7 102.7 102.8 104.7 106.2 154.6 155.0 155.5 155.8 156.3 156.7 157.0 157.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 145.0 145.1 145.6 146.0 146.3 141.2 141.6 142.3 142.6 143.3 141.6 141.9 142.2 142.5 142.8 156.0 156.3 156.6 157.1 157.5 164.5 164.8 165.6 165.8 166.3 160.8 161.1 161.3 161.9 162.4 131.6 131.3 130.8 127.9 127.6 122.2 122.4 122.5 122.4 122.3 133.9 133.4 133.2 134.1 133.9 130.6 130.6 131.9 131.9 131.7 132.2 132.5 132.9 133.1 133.2 95.3 94.1 98.3 96.6 95.3 203.0 203.8 204.8 205.4 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 146.3 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.7 148.1 148.6 149.1 143.1 142.7 142.9 143.0 143.5 143.9 144.6 145.2 142.9 143.5 144.0 144.0 144.3 144.4 144.7 145.2 157.8 158.6 159.2 159.3 159.7 159.8 160.2 160.9 166.3 167.0 167.7 167.7 168.4 168.5 168.4 169.2 162.8 163.6 164.3 164.4 164.8 164.8 165.4 166.1 128.9 129.4 129.3 130.2 131.0 131.5 131.3 131.2 121.8 122.9 123.3 122.9 122.8 122.7 122.9 123.1 133.8 133.4 134.0 133.6 134.2 135.0 134.4 133.1 131.4 132.0 132.8 133.2 132.7 133.5 134.8 136.2 133.3 133.9 134.5 135.0 135.4 135.9 136.6 136.9 94.8 96.8 97.0 96.8 95.3 95.6 99.2 102.3 206.7 207.3 207.8 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels —gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc- — and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 3 Relative importance, December 1993. 2 Fuel and other utilities 206.1 209.1 209.9 210.7 211.6 212.4 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capita! equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1.7 1.8 23 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 -.1 1.6 .2 1984... 1985 1986... 1987 1988 1989 1990. 1991 1992 1993 3.5 .6 2.8 2 5.7 5.2 2.6 15 1.6 2.4 0.8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 5.3 8.7 7 1.6 — 1.4 2.1 1.0 14 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.5 5.2 4.9 2.1 1.2 1.2 Change, month to month 1993: -0.8 Aug Sept Oct 0.3 .6 -.2 .8 .6 .2 -.1 .1 — .1 Nov Dec .3 .4 .2 0 j 1994- Jan Feb Mar Apr ', May ? •* .5 .6 .6 .7 -.1 0 .2 -.1 .7 .7 .7 .2 .2 .4 .4 .1 .1 .1 -f .1 n -.4 -.3 .6 -.5 '-1.0 0 .5 .7 o' July -.6 0.2 .1 4 .3 .2 -1.6 -5.0 -2.5 -2.8 .6 -.3 -1.3 3.2 2.9 4.9 5.2 -8.5 -6.7 -6.1 — 1.0 -3.0 1.5 2.2 -.6 0 .3 1.3 2.6 3.6 2.3 .3 -.3 1.6 4.5 4.2 3 -.6 9 -3.7 -5.8 r -2.2 4.9 -1.0 3.0 5.1 2.7 .3 .3 3.0 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.3 3.0 4.3 3.6 '2.7 1.5 — 1.4 1.5 2.3 -.6 1.8 4.2 3.1 -3.9 -4.3 -4.8 -4.8 1.5 1.4 .2 .8 1.2 .5 .4 .2 .4 .2 8 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.6 2.2 2.2 1.6 -2.0 -3.3 -1.6 .5 -3.6 1.0 1.0 .8 1.7 2.72.8 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.3 3.8 4.1 4.0 2.9 2.9 .2 .2 .2 — .4 — .4 0 .6 1.9 13 -2.4 22 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items ' Food Total' Total' Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New Total ' CUTS Motor fuel Medical care Ener- sy2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 1984. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 2.9 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.9 3.0 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 6.7 4.2 2.8 2.6 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 3.7 2.9 3.2 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 1.0 5.1 3.4 1.4 .9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 -1.5 3.0 2.4 2.5 -2.4 3.1 3.4 5.9 —30.7 1.8 18.7 21 2.1 6.8 2.3 1.4 36.5 3.3 -16.0 2.3 1.8 2.8 -5.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 5.4 0.2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.1 18.1 -7.4 2.0 — 1.4 4.7 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 3.0 Change, month to month 1993: 1994: Aug...... Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.3 .1 .3 .3 .2 0.4 .3 .5 .2 .5 0.3 .2 .2 .2 .2 0.3 .2 .2 .3 .3 0.1 .2 .5 .1 .3 0.2 .2 .1 .4 .3 0.3 .2 .1 -.1 -.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 0 .3 .3 .1 .2 .3 .3 .3 1 .1 .4 .3 0 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 .5 .4 .1 .3 .1 .3 .4 0 .4 .4 0 .4 .1 1 .2 .5 .4 .1 .2 0 .4 .4 -.4 .9 .3 -.3 — .1 -.1 .2 .2 1 2 -.3 .1 .1 .3 .3 .5 .4 .5 0.7 -.4 — .1 .7 -.1 •• -.3 .4 -.3 .4 .6 — .4 -1.0 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 24 0.1 0 1.0 0 2 0.5 .2 .3 .2 .1 -1.7 -1.3 4.5 -1.7 -1.3 0.3 .4 .5 .3 .3 -0.7 -.4 1.9 9 -.7 0.3 .1 .3 .4 .2 -.2 .5 .6 .3 — .4 .6 1.0 1.0 .1 .5 .4 .4 .3 .4 .5 .2 -.5 2.1 .2 -.2 -1.5 .3 3.8 3.1 .3 .3 .2 .6 .4 .4 .4 .4 -.8 1.6 .4 — .4 10 .1 1.8 1.4 .1 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 3 2.0 3.1 1.9 2.8 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.3 3.8 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In September, prices received by farmers fell 2.2 percent from their August level. Prices paid by farmers in July were 0.5 percent below their April level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE] INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 240 240 220 220 200 200 PRICES PAID - 180 180 160 160 140 140 PRICES RECEIVED 120 120 100 100 RAT OJ' RATICD-" 140 140 - 120 120 DATin 100 80 60 " 100 r~^-—— "~~~T 80 ^~~T 1 1 1111111111 111111 T r- " • " ~~^^ - 60 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 I 1 1 M 1 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates l Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 142 128 123 127 138 147 149 146 139 143 138 120 107 106 126 134 127 129 121 123 146 136 138 146 150 160 170 161 157 162 164 162 159 162 169 177 183 187 189 195 161 156 150 152 159 167 171 , 172 173 178 155 151 144 148 157 165 171 173 174 179 87 79 77 78 82 83 81 78 74 73 1993- Sept Oct Nov Dec 145 145 144 145 128 130 128 133 160 159 158 156 (3) 196 <3> (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) (3) 181 (3) (3) 74 74 73 74 1994: Jan Feb Mar 147 148 148 146 142 138 r !33 137 134 135 135 132 131 131 127 r l!8 123 122 159 161 163 161 154 148 r !47 150 146 198 (3) (3) 200 <3> (3) 199 (3) <3> 180 <3> (3) 183 (3) (3) 180 <3> (3) 181 (3) (3) 184 <3> <3> 181 (3) (3) 74 75 75 73 71 69 67 69 67 1984 1985 1986 Mav July Sept 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES M2 and M3 fell in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS" (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 4,000 4,000 A— M3 3,600 3,200 3,600 3,200 -M2 - 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 800 Ml 600 600 400 400 1986 1989 1988 1991 1990 1992 1994 1993 ' AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1984: 19851986198719881989: 19901991: 19921993: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .. Dec 1993- July Sept Oct Nov . Dec 1994- Jan Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May ' ... . July r L Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 552.1 619.9 724.5 750.1 787.4 794.7 826.4 897.7 1,024.8 1,128.4 2,377.8 2,575.0 2,818.2 2,920.1 3,081.4 3,239.8 3,353.0 3,455.3 3,509.0 3,567.9 2,994.6 3,211.6 3,497.3 3,681.3 3,920.4 4,067.3 4,125.7 4,180.4 4,183.1 4,232.0 3,536.0 3,838.9 4,137.5 4,340.2 4,674.6 4,897.3 , 4,974.8 4,992.9 5,057.2 5,134.4 '6,011.4 * 6,902.1 r 7,785.2 '8,544.6 r 9,315.0 ' 10,045.1 ' 10,690.6 r ll, 165.9 r l 1,697.8 ' 12, 320.3 6.0 12.3 16.9 3.5 5.0 .9 4.0 8.6 14.2 10.1 8.7 8.3 9.4 3.6 5.5 5.1 3.5 3.1 1.6 1.7 11.1 7.2 8.9 5.3 6.5 3.7 1.4 1.3 .1 1.2 1,086.8 1,095.3 1,105.1 1,113.4 1,122.4 1,128.4 3,533.7 3,536.1 3,544.3 3,548.0 3,560.3 3,567.9 4,188.3 4,188.4 4,197.6 4,205.4 4,219.0 4,232.0 5,087.6 5,096.5 5,089.7 5,100.3 5,113.8 5,134.4 ' 12,053.4 r 12, 109.5 '12,163.1 ' 12,199.2 ' 12,253.2 ' 12,320.3 10.4 11.6 12.5 12.7 10.2 9.6 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.2 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.0 r 1,133.5 1,138.6 1,142.4 1,141.1 1,142.9 1,146.4 1,153.6 1,151.8 3,573.2 3,569.4 3,583.5 3,592.1 3,596.1 3,589.4 3,603.0 3,596.6 4,236.3 4,209.8 4,218.3 4,227.9 4,226.3 4,225.8 4,247.1 4,240.1 5,154.6 5,143.1 5,143.4 5,163.0 5,163.1 5,154.4 "5,185.2 8,6 7.9 6.8 5.0 3.7 3.2 3.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 .3 -.3 .5 1.4 r 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfmaneial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 Debt Ml M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) ' r 12,363.8 12,413.5 - 12,482.5 12,540.2 12,591.5 12,627.7 "12,654.3 Ml NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt r !4.6 !4.8 !2.8 9.8 '9.0 r 7.8 6.4 4.4 r 4.8 r 5.3 r r 5.5 5.9 5.9 '5.4 r 5.2 r 5.3 r r 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.7 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other cheekable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars 1 Money market mutual fund balances 2 General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small denomination time deposits 3 Large denomination time deposits 3 NSA 1984: 1985: 19861987: 19881989: 19901991: 19921993: 1993: 1994: Dec . Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec July 156.1 167.9 180.7 196.9 212.2 222.6 246.7 267.1 292.2 321.4 309.7 312.4 315.4 317.6 319.5 321.4 325.2 329.2 332.4 334.8 337.6 340.3 343.2 345.4 Sept Oct Nov Dec .... Jan Feb.. Mar May July r. 243.7 266.6 302.1 287.1 287.2 279.8 277.9 290.0 339.6 384.8 366.4 370.9 375.4 378.4 383.2 384.8 388.3 390.3 390.0 388.9 385.8 386.6 389.4 387.9 147.4 179.8 235.6 259.5 280.9 285.4 294.0 332.8 384.9 414.3 402.8 404.2 406.6 409.5 411.8 414.3 412.0 411.2 411.9 409.3 411.2 411.4 412.7 410.2 63.0 75.6 83.3 85.7 84.1 80.2 77.3 80.6 80.6 92.3 81.2 82.2 85.6 89.5 90.6 92.3 95.2 93.5 98.5 r 96.8 r 99.9 r 104.4 108.4 109.3 167.9 177.4 209.8 223.5 244.4 320.4 355.5 370.4 352.0 348.8 346.6 345.5 345.0 344.4 347.0 348.8 347.8 343.7 348.4 361.5 365.1 359.3 363.5 362.9 62.5 64.7 85.3 92.0 91.5 108.5 135.0 181.0 201.5 197.0 192.6 190.1 190.8 194.3 194.8 197.0 192.7 176.9 177.4 177.0 169.3 169.5 170.9 169.3 1 Includes continuing contract RPs. Data prior to 1983 are not seasonally adjusted. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are th< ae issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 2 3 704.8 815.4 941.0 937.7 926.7 891.0 920.4 1,041.1 1,183.6 1,215.5 1,202.1 1,205.9 1,208.4 1,208.8 1,211.9 1,215.5 1,220.3 1,220.9 1,221.9 1,220.7 1,215.9 1,207.2 1,202.4 1,194.6 888.8 885.7 859.0 922.7 1,038.6 1,153.7 1,174.5 1,067.4 870.5 785.6 814.5 806.6 799.9 794.9 790.6 785.6 779.5 774.5 771.1 768.6 769.1 770.4 772.5 777.6 416.6 434.3 431.5 475.5 525.5 549.1 489.5 425.8 360.3 339.0 341.8 341.6 340.4 341.6 339.4 339.0 341.5 335.7 330.9 330.5 333.5 333.9 336.6 339.9 Term repur- Term chase Euroagree- dollars ments (net) Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities 74.2 79.5 91.8 100.8 109.4 117.5 126.0 137.9 156.6 171.7 167.1 168.2 169.2 170.1 170.8 171.7 172.7 173.4 174.1 174.8 175.7 176.6 '177.5 261.0 298.3 280.0 253.1 269.3 325.5 332.0 316.2 332.5 329.3 344.3 343.8 328.0 323.7 324.6 329.3 339.1 341.6 345.8 '361.2 '358.7 r 348.9 "357.2 (RPs) NSA NSA 57.6 62.4 80.6 106.0 121.8 99.0 89.6 72.5 81.1 96.8 97.8 97.6 97.3 96.0 95.6 96.8 92.9 r 91.5 r 94.1 r 97.9 r 96.9 r 100.8 102.4 100.2 82.9 76.5 83.8 91.0 105.7 79.5 68.7 57.6 45.6 47.0 41.9 44.1 45.2 45.0 48.9 47.0 46.0 48.1 '47.1 r 47.0 '41.3 r 48.9 49.7 49.7 Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 160.7 45.4 207.5 42.1 231.3 37.1 260.6 44.5 335.4 40.2 346.5 40.6 355.2 35.9 334.8 23.6 364.3 20.6 386.8 14.6 370.4 17.4 379.5 16.5 378.4 16.4 384.7 16.4 15.3 384.1 386.8 14.6 391.6 14.9 403.0 15.3 389.6 15.7 14.1 384.9 391.0 11.4 392.6 10.5 "10.7 "392.7 NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures *; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1984: 19851986198719881989: 19901991: 19921993: 1993- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1994- Jan Feb Mar . May July r 1 26,847 31,451 38,935 38,849 40,396 40,496 41,769 45,532 54,341 60,476 58,011 58,813 59,749 60,320 60,476 60,603 60,763 60,588 60,333 59,910 59,708 59,819 59,518 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Nonborrowed 23,661 30,132 38,108 38,072 38,681 40,231 41,444 45,340 54,218 60,394 57,659 58,386 59,464 60,231 60,394 60,529 60,693 60,533 60,208 59,709 59,374 59,361 59,050 Nonborrowed plus extended credit 26,265 30,632 38,411 38,555 39,925 40,251 41,466 45,340 54,218 60,394 57<659 58,386 59,464 60,231 60,394 60,529 60,693 60,533 60,208 59,709 59,374 59,361 59,050 Required 25,992 30,414 37,565 37,803 39,349 39,574 40,105 44,553 53,186 59,413 57,059 57,723 58,660 59,219 59,413 59,155 59,623 59,621 59,181 58,995 58,603 58,712 58,514 Monetary base Total 187,224 203,543 223,576 239,775 256,870 267,696 293,157 317,122 350,609 385,855 374,340 378,076 381,400 384,029 385,855 389,613 393,960 397,014 399,198 401,725 404,319 407,043 409,175 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 265 326 192 124 82 352 428 285 89 82 73 70 55 124 200 333 458 469 Seasonal 113 56 38 93 130 84 76 38 18 31 234 236 192 75 31 15 15 24 57 134 226 364 445 Extended credit 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 20 23 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in August; commercial and industrial loans also rose 0.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALEI BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALEI 3,600 3,200 - 3,600 3,200 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 - LOANS AND LEASES . 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES \ 400 400 OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 120 I i I i i l I i l l i l 1988 i i i i i I i i i i i I 120 1989 1990 1993 1992 1991 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted *] Loans and leases in bank credit Securities in bank credit Total bank credit Real estate Total securities U.S. Government securities securities 2,852.6 2,949.8 3,104.9 562.6 584.8 634.0 743.5 839.7 911.0 367.3 400.3 455.9 564.0 663.3 727.0 1993: Aug Sept r. Get T Nov ' Dec '. 3,065.1 3,073.0 3,075.2 3,091.3 3,104.9 902.5 904.6 900.0 903.2 911.0 1994: Jan r Feb r Mar r. Apr r. May r June T .... July * Aug 3,125.0 3,139.7 3,168.3 3,195.4 3,199.7 3,208.3 3,242.8 3,256.1 924.9 929.9 950.0 967.5 965.2 967.5 971.5 965.5 Period New series: 1988: Dec. .. 1989: Dec 1990: Dec 1991: Dec 1992: Dec .. 1993: Dec ' r 2,435.9 2,608.9 2,749.9 Total loans and leases 2 Commercial and industrial 195.3 184.5 178.2 179.5 176.4 184.0 1,873.3 2,024.1 2,115.9 2,109.1 2,110.1 607.9 639.0 640.0 718.3 720.4 717.4 720.7 727.0 731.9 730.8 745.2 755.9 749.0 749.9 749.6 745.3 Other 674.5 769.6 Revolving home equity 40.1 Other Consumer Security 357.7 41.0 41.9 45.2 54.7 64.6 87.6 378.1 380.3 384.7 388.3 391.1 80.3 82.3 81.7 88.1 87.6 195.9 196.4 196.0 193.9 191.2 394.2 397.9 402.4 408.7 411.8 415.1 422.7 429.0 81.0 82.2 83.3 76.9 77.4 76.1 77.8 75.2 193.9 196.9 194.2 195.2 192.6 188.7 194.9 196.5 378.2 383.5 366.4 358.7 391.1 2,193.9 618.6 594.2 583.3 854.5 878.9 ' 900.4 940.8 184.2 184.2 182.6 182.5 184.0 2,162.6 2,168.3 2,175.2 2,188.1 2,193.9 588.7 586.5 585.8 584.1 583.3 919.7 922.9 926.9 933.7 940.8 74.7 74.4 73.8 73.5 73.2 845.0 848.5 853.1 860.2 867.6 193.0 199.1 204.8 211.6 216.2 217.6 222.0 220.2 2,200.1 2,209.8 2,218.3 2,228.0 2,234.5 2,240.8 2,271.3 2,290.5 588.2 590.6 595.3 601.7 605.8 608.2 616.8 621.7 942.8 942.3 943.0 945.5 946.9 952.6 959.1 968.2 73.0 73.2 73.3 73.3 73.7 74.0 74.1 74.3 869.7 869.1 869.8 872.2 873.2 878.6 884.9 893.9 Other 192.1 195.4 192.8 190.5 192.2 191.2 634.5 719.3 792.2 809.3 826.8 867.6 50.3 62.3 69.6 73.6 73.2 1 Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks. New York State investment companies, and foreign-related institutions. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 Total 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. NOTE.—Data for new series not yet available prior to 1988. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Credit market funds x Total Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Other 2 Total Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 1984 1985 .... 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 511.3 493.9 538.8 564.7 634.2 567.8 535.5 471.7 560.6 556.3 336.3 351.9 336.7 375.9 404.3 399.6 411.6 426.0 438.4 462.3 175.0 142.0 202.1 188.8 229.9 168.2 123.9 45.7 122.2 94.0 118.9 84.7 148.1 89.3 95.0 68.0 48.3 8.7 67.9 66.1 55 13.2 65.1 39.9 -4.7 -37.5 -20.0 96.2 67.0 81.0 124.4 71.5 83.0 49.4 99.7 105.5 68.3 -87.5 .9 -14.9 56.1 57.2 54.1 99.5 134.9 100.2 75.6 37.0 54.2 27.9 495.4 467.2 501.7 492.4 575.8 509.4 488.7 435.4 527.8 523.4 391.6 370.2 344.2 361.5 391.0 401.1 402.8 379.8 386.0 440.4 103.8 97.0 157.5 130.9 184.8 108.3 85.9 55.6 141.8 83.0 16.0 26.7 37.1 72.4 58.4 58.4 46.7 36.4 32.8 32.9 1992: I r II T r 541.3 570.7 531.2 598.9 444.2 561.1 585.6 634.6 659.0 626.8 434.3 432.9 440.7 445.6 436.4 450.7 476.4 485.7 502.9 502.0 107.0 137.8 90.5 153.3 7.8 110.4 109.2 148.9 156.1 124.8 81.6 78.4 39.4 72.2 28.3 92.9 63.6 79.5 124.3 128.5 94.3 95.3 31.0 47.2 79.9 73.4 96.6 73.8 32.8 57.0 -12.7 -16.9 8.4 25.0 51 6 19.5 330 5.7 91.5 71.5 25.5 59.4 51.1 81.2 206 17.5 45.6 69.4 31.8 -3.6 512.8 528.7 522.6 547.0 426.2 530.6 549.6 587.3 603.7 591.6 362.1 389.2 394.1 398.7 424.8 441.7 443.7 451.3 483.3 533.8 150.7 139.5 128.5 148.3 1.4 88.9 105.9 136.0 120.4 57.8 28.4 42.0 8.6 51.9 18.1 30.4 35.9 47.2 55.4 35.2 in IV ' 1993: l r r. n r m IV r 1994- I r p n 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. NOTE.—Series revised to reflect annual benchmark and seasonal adjustment revisions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total Automobile Revolving Other 2 Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Total Automobile Revolving Other 2 442,602 517,659 572,006 608,675 662,553 717,200 734,621 728,398 729,932 795,573 173,564 210,238 247,772 266,295 285,364 291,531 282,984 260,574 257,890 281,504 100,280 121,758 135,825 153,064 174,269 199,162 223,589 245,631 257,453 287,970 168,758 185,664 188,408 189,316 202,921 226,508 228,047 222,193 214,590 226,099 73,636 75,057 54,347 36,669 53,878 (4) 17,421 -6,223 1,534 65,641 30,004 36,674 37,534 18,523 19,069 (4) -8,547 -22,410 -2,684 23,614 21,192 21,478 14,067 17,239 21,205 <4) 24,427 22,042 11,822 30,517 22,440 16,906 2,744 908 13,605 (4) 1,539 -5,854 -7,603 11,509 1993- July Aue Sept Oct Nov Dec 757,554 762,156 772,045 779,220 786,911 795,573 268,261 270,311 273,383 277,737 280,561 281,504 273,520 275,430 279,324 281,486 285,508 287,970 315,773 216,415 219,338 219,996 220,842 226,099 5,473 4,602 9,889 7,175 7,691 8,662 2,200 2,050 3,072 4,354 2,824 943 3,876 1,910 3,894 2,162 4,022 2,462 -603 642 2,923 658 846 5,257 1994: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 800,912 805,787 817,173 827,288 838,748 849,904 855,472 283,453 284,388 287,912 292,738 296,566 301,534 305,671 290,807 294,461 299,218 304,381 308,590 312,591 316,249 226,651 226,938 230,043 230,168 233,593 235,778 233,552 5,339 4,875 11,386 10,115 11,460 .11,156 5,568 1,949 935 3,524 4,826 3,827 4,969 4,137 2,837 3,654 4,757 5,163 4,208 4,002 3,657 552 287 3,105 126 3,424 2,186 -2,226 19841985: 19861987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1993: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 3 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec July 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc. s Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 and subsequent months. 4 Because of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in September. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANN UM 14 14 12 12 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) \A l\ 10 10 rs \ / i \ \ \-/ "''X\ / r^\ T' 8 TREASURY BILLS / v \ -.-".\ 6 /I - \J /r —' -. ^ " •-., '"X. x/- t DISCOUNT RATE /^ 6 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ~ \ _...-' 4 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 11 1986 1987 1 1 I M i i i1 1 1 1 i i1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n i <> 1989 1988 I I i 11 i I 1 1 I 1 1990 I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1992 1991 4 /H "T*|m 1 1 1 1 I N I S \ MEW YORK 2 8 1 1 1 ' i 1 1 1 II 1993 2 1994 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOw [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Mood.v's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 New-home mortgage yields (FHFB) 5 1984 .. 1985 1986.. 1987 1988 .. 1989 1990.. 1991 1992 . 1993 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 8.12 7.51 5.42 3.45 3.02 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 8.55 8.26 6.82 5.30 4.44 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 8.49 8.55 7.86 7.01 5.87 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 7.24 7.25 6.89 6.41 5.63 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 9.26 9.32 8.77 8.14 7.22 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 8.80 7.95 5.85 3.80 3.30 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 6.93 6.98 5.45 3.25 3.00 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.21 9.32 10.87 10.01 8.46 6.25 6.00 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 10.13 10.05 9.32 8.24 7.20 1993- Sept Oct 2.96 3.04 3.12 3.08 4.17 4.18 4.50 4.54 5.36 5.33 5.72 5.77 5.31 5.29 5.47 5.35 6.66 6.67 6.93 6.93 3.25 3.27 3.43 3.40 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.95 6.80 6.80 6.92 3.02 3.21 3.52 3.74 4.19 4.18 4.39 4.50 4.64 4.48 4.83 5.40 5.99 6.34 6.27 6.48 6.50 6.69 5.75 5.97 6.48 6.97 7.18 7.10 7.30 7.24 7.46 5.30 5.44 5.93 6.28 6.26 6.14 6.19 r 6.19 6.33 6.92 7.08 7.48 7.88 7.99 7.97 8.11 8.07 8.34 3.30 3.62 4.08 4.40 4.92 4.86 5.13 5.19 5.32 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-4.00 4.00-4.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.25 6.25-6.75 6.75-7.25 7.25-7.25 7.25-7.25 7.25-7.75 7.75-7.75 6.95 6.85 6.99 7.31 7.43 7.62 7.71 7.67 4.61 4.58 4.61 4.61 4.79 6.45 6.55 6.65 6.78 6.87 7.21 7.33 7.44 7.54 7.60 6.17 6.22 6.26 6.39 6.43 8.09 8.22 8.32 8.41 8.48 5.15 5.17 5.24 5.39 5.50 4.00-4.00 4.00-4.00 4.00-4.00 4.00-4.00 400 400 7.75-7.75 7.75-7.75 7.75-7.75 7.75-7.75 7.75-7.75 Nov Dec 1994- Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Sept Week ended: 1994: Sept 3.... 10.... 17.... 24.... Oct 1 .... 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Deartment. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in September. INDEX, DEC. 31,1 965=50 (RATIO SC:ALE) 300 280 260 X *~ ^•——•"" 240 r-_-^—•/ 220 ' 200 INDEX, DEC. 31,1 965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 300 280 260 240 220 200 y-~x-XA 180 \ 160 "• "v s^( 140 120 / / \S SITE STOCK PRIC (NYSE) \ /~^~~^ \t ^-—^ r 180 160 140 ~ 120 100 100 80 1 M 1 1 MM 1986 ! M M MM! 1987 [ M l ! MM! 1988 1 1 1 ! i I 1 M 1989 1 1 1 1 ! M 1 M [ M I 1 ! ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1991 1990 1 1 M ! I ! 1 M MM 1993 1992 1 M 1 1 1 ! 1 I 80 1994 PERCENT 20 PERCENT 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1993 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1994 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices l Period Common stock yields (percent) G New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965 = 50, except as noted) 2 Composite Industrial Transportation Utility s Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 4 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 5 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 180.02 183.46 206.33 229.01 249.58 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 216.23 225.78 258.14 284.62 299.99 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 175.28 158.62 173.99 201.09 242.49 92.89 113.49 142.72 148.59 143.53 174.87 181.20 185.32 198.91 228.90 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 151.88 133.26 150.82 179.26 216.42 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 3,284.29 3,522.06 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 322.84 334.59 376.18 415.74 451.41 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.24 2.99 2.78 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 7.41 6.47 4.79 4.22 4.46 1993- Sept Oct Nov Dec 254.86 257.53 255.93 257.73 300.92 306.61 310.84 313.22 248.15 254.04 262.96 268.11 244.21 240.97 230.12 229.95 229.35 228.18 214.08 216.00 3,592.29 3,625.81 3,674.70 3,744.10 459.24 463.90 462.89 465.95 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.72 4.45 1994- Jan Fob Mar 262.11 261.97 257 3° 247.97 249 56 251.21 249.29 256.08 257.61 320.92 322.41 318.08 304.48 307.58 308.66 307.34 316.55 322.19 278.29 276.67 265.68 250.43 244.75 246.64 244.21 244.67 239.10 225.15 220.85 215.45 210.08 205.77 206.54 205.46 211.26 204.60 218.71 217.12 211.02 208.12 211.30 215.89 210.91 214.77 211.90 3,868.36" 3,905.62 3,816.98 3,661.48 3,707.99 3,737.58 3,718.30 3,797.48 3,880.60 472.99 471.58 463.81 447.23 450.90 454.83 451.40 464.24 466.96 2.69 2.70 2.78 2.90 2.89 2.84 2.87 2.78 2.80 261.26 259.77 258.97 255.72 255.26 324.67 323.73 323.89 320.61 320.18 248.38 246.05 242.05 234.22 231.73 210.19 206.22 203.82 202.36 204.74 218.28 216.66 214.26 209.00 206.32 3,903.32 3,892.06 3,904.55 3,865.26 3,857.66 474.06 471.04 469.70 463.32 462.53 2.73 2.77 2.78 2.83 2.81 May July Sept Week ended: 1994- sept 3 10 17 24 Get 1 1 Average of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE. 3 Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect the doubling. 4 Includes 30 stocks. 5 Includes ,500 stocks. 4.69 5.09 r 5.67 6 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 11 months of fiscal 1994, there was a deficit of $207.3 billion, compared with a deficit of $263.8 billion a year earlier. BILLION S OF DOLLARS 1,600 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^ 1,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,500 „-•"" . 1 ,400 1,400 „--"""" 1,300 1,300 OUTLAYS-17 ^-"" ^r 1,200 1,200 _,>-" ^^-^^ 1,100 1,100 ----'*"' 1,000 """""" — ' 1,000 ^•"""N" 900 900 RECEIPTS-17 ^^-—""""""^ 800 800 "" 700 700 600 A 1 1 1 1 1 [\ 600 0 0 -100 ^^—-" — 200 ^ — ^. _- " -300 -400 A 1 V 1985 1986 1 1987 1 1 1988 1 1989 J 1990 N -400 1 1991 1992 1994 ^ 1993 R INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Fiscal year or period Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 73 7 -53.7 592 -40.2 -73.8 -79.0 -128.0 -207.8 -185.4 231.7 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.1 594.4 661.3 686.0 705 -49.8 54 9 -38.2 -72.7 740 -120.1 2080 -185.7 66.4 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -3.2 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 1.1 -5.0 7.9 .2 .3 629.0 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 (estimates) 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,090.5 1,153.5 1,259.9 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,143.2 1,252.7 1,323.8 1,380.9 1,408.2 1,480.0 -212.3 221 2 - 149.8 155 2 -152.5 221 4 -269.5 2904 -254.7 -220.1 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.0 749.7 760.4 788.0 841.6 925.6 769.6 806.8 810.1 861.4 932.3 1,027.6 1,082.1 1,128.5 1,141.6 1,199.2 -221.7 2380 - 169.3 1940 -205.2 -278.0 -321.7 3405 -300.0 -273.7 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 334.3 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 280.8 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 53.6 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,867.5 3,206.3 3,598.3 4,001.9 4,351.2 4,667.4 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.3 2,189.3 2,410.4 2,687.9 2,998.6 3,247.2 3,457.8 Cumulative total, first 11 months: * Fiscal year 1993 Fiscal year 1994 1,025.7 1,121.3 1,289.5 1,328.6 -263.8 -207.3 742.6 816.9 1,051.1 1,078.0 308.4 -261.0 283.1 304.3 238.5 250.6 44.6 53.8 4,342.7 4,643.1 3,256.6 3,444.3 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1993 and 1994 are from Mid-Session Review of the 1995 Budget issued 32 July 14, 1994. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, fiscal Year 1995, February 1994. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 11 months of fiscal 1994, receipts were $95.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $39.1 billion higher. BILLIOI-vIS OF DOLLARS 600 RECEIPTSM 500 BILLIONS OF DC)LIARS 600 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES \ » . 500 -' _ 400 - " " 400 \ 300 300 CORPORATION h-J ME TA K \ 200 OTHER RECEIPTS SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXE" AND rnNTBisi mriN1: 200 100 100 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1,300 1,300 OUTLAYS ^ 1,200 1,200 ___--"""" 1,100 1,000 NONDEFENSE \ 900 1,100 1,000 ,.-"' — -" 900 >„,-''' 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 NATIONAL DEFENSE 400 400 \ 300 200 /I V I 1985 1986 300 1 I 1987 1988 1989 J INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. OURCES: DEPAKTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1990 1 1991 1 1992 1 1993 1994 |\ 200 N FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts National defense Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 800.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 (estimates) 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,090.5 1,153.5 1,259.9 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 549.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 139.4 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 460.6 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.3 90.9 92.3 100.5 98.0 110.3 Cumulative total, first 11 months: 1 Fiscal year 1993 Fiscal year 1994 1,025.7 1,121.3 454.0 484.8 93.0 113.1 390.5 421.1 88.2 102.3 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1 ' 298.1 Other Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. Social security 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 108.1 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 146.6 90.2 97.4 119.5 131.7 International affairs Health 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 • 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,143.2 1,252.7 1,323.8 1,380.9 1,408.2 1,480.0 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 279.8 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 267.3 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 13.8 15.9 16.1 16.8 18.6 1,289.5 1,328.6 265.7 253.8 254.9 242.2 15.6 14.9 Total NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1993 and 1994 are from Mid-Session Review of the 1995 Budget issued July 14, 1994. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Income security Department of Defense, military Total Medicare Net interest Other 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.5 42.6 52.5 68.8 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122,3 118.6 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.0 147.0 170.3 197.0 207.3 213.4 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 320.3 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 184.2 194.5 199.4 198.8 204.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.8 203.9 225.1 173.9 159.7 188.9 192.4 196.9 279.0 292.7 183.4 186.0 143.8 155.2 Fiscal Year 1995, February 1994. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of 1994, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $43.3 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $12.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES *"* - - / j **—''' 1,400 1,400 y ^ S , FY 1,200 / s 'ENDITURE v —' s ___ - ', s^\ .—' 1,200 *•— - 1,000 1,000 • ** •- —• 800 r~~' ^ S ' _-- J -^ - \ -NX— 800 RECEIPTS 600 - - - - - - 400 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( - 1 \ ~^ i——***—* -200 t 1 1982 1 I I 1 1983 X— ii\ - V ^ r ' - - S-~ -^ ' 0 —-, ^ "V^^ /• "•——.-*—1 ! 1985 1984 1 1 1 1986 1 \ \ 1987 \ i i i i 1989 i i 1988 \ 1990 1991 \ ^ \ \ 1993 1992 -200 \ i 1994 -400 cALENDAR YEA RS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates! Federal Government receipts in IV 1993- I II m rv 1994- I r II . . 34 183.5 189.0 183.5 23.5 25.9 34.5 Transfer payments 1,311.7 1,434.5 1,496.6 445.4 444.9 447.4 512.3 606.1 650.2 147.1 168.7 181.0 465.0 1,331.6 491.9 1,460.9 517.8 1,507.0 235.9 815.7 855.7 259.8 926.6 291.1 990.8 318.0 338.8 1,034.3 359.4 1,096.3 400.7 1,135.5 424.7 1,209.8 449.7 1,306.9 470.7 1,386.3 483.3 1,435.6 488.5 1,455.8 493.9 1,460.4 501.9 1,492.0 501.6 1,496.2 518.6 1,500.6 522.7 1,497.6 528.3 1,533.7 1,513.7 545.1 553.0 1,525.9 445.8 449.0 443.6 281.4 289.7 324.7 356.9 373.1 392.5 392.0 405.1 436.5 438.3 445.2 443.2 452.9 454.8 522.2 625.3 658.0 346.0 351.1 360.1 383.8 404.2 419.7 444.5 488.8 526.6 566.2 611.2 622.3 624.8 643.1 644.8 652.8 660.2 674.1 671.5 676.2 153.3 187.8 172.2 186.8 186.1 183.6 86.8 84.3 99.2 86.9 122.3 97.7 104.5 129.2 103.8 131.1 102.9 143.1 151.2 113.0 121.9 168.9 174 .4 137.6 162.6 191.6 188.2 164.6 189.5 172.8 174.6 - 186.6 176.6 183.1 176.7 182.5 182.9 184.8 183.6 187.8 183.5 197.0 179.3 190.0 188.8 194.4 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals 1,122.6 1,158.4 1,242.3 477.4 481.0 514.0 109.5 112.3 134.2 76.0 81.1 82.9 459.7 484.1 511.2 1,128.7 1,178.3 1,265.7 632.3 671.1 739.8 803.6 856.8 943.5 1,000.6 1,068.3 1,115.8 1,140.5 1,155.7 1,171.0 1 1665 1,219.9 1,212.7 1,263.7 1,272.7 1,313.6 1,337.4 1,380.7 475.8 489.5 520.3 301.6 290.5 323.5 351.8 371.7 414.8 420.0 470.1 483.9 477.3 476.0 481.3 489.2 511.6 497.2 519.8 527.5 536.8 550.2 571.1 108.1 115.6 143.0 45.5 65.4 67.0 77.0 91.4 109.7 118.5 111.3 115.1 109.6 115.7 120.8 103.2 122.6 132.1 141.8 140.2 157.8 151.8 166.3 79.9 81.3 84.6 49.2 55.4 58.2 56.8 54.8 59.5 61.4 62.2 67.1 82.9 80.7 80.5 80.2 83.8 81.9 83.5 82.3 90.7 90.4 90.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Net interest paid Purchases Personal tax and nontax receipts Total Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Corporate profits tax accruals Period Fiscal year: 1991 1992 1993 .. Calendar year: 1991 1992 1993 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987- IV 1988: IV 1989- IV 1990: IV 1991: IV 1992- I II Federal Government expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total 446.9 445.2 442.7 439.8 437.8 435.1 22.4 27.6 35.7 17.3 28.8 22.2 16.4 22.1 37.8 34.9 25.0 32.0 27.7 26.4 28.0 21.5 34.5 45.2 35.1 23.3 39.3 35.1 31.5 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 0.0 .0 .0 189.2 -276.1 254.4 1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -202.9 2827 -241,4 183.4 -184.6 - 186.8 1872 -177.5 152.7 -134.9 141.5 — 191.0 -245.8 2799 -284.8 -293.9 -272.1 2835 -237.0 224.9 -220.1 1762 -145.1 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA) Industrial production (1987=100; seasonally adjusted except as noted) Period United States 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 104.4 106.0 106.0 104.1 106.5 110.9 110.4 110.9 111.1 111.3 111.9 112.8 114.0 114.6 115.0 115.9 116.0 r 116.6 '117.3 r l!7.7 118.5 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 .... 1991 1992 .. 1993 * 1993: June July.. .* Aug Sept. . Oct Nov... Dec 1994- Jan Feb Mar Apr Hay ,} July p Aug . 1 Canada Japan 91.0 96.1 95.4 100.0 105.3 105.2 * r 101.7 97.5 r 98.4 103.2 103.7 102.7 ' 103.6 104.4 104.4 ' 104.8 ' 104.6 r 105.1 ' 104.7 r 106.2 ' 107.5 108.4 109.2 93.4 96.8 96.6 100.0 109.3 115.9 121.4 123.7 116.5 111.7 112.5 111.9 111.0 113.3 107.4 109.9 108.0 109.1 109.0 113.7 111.2 110.1 r 113.0 111.9 France Germany 97.1 97.2 98.0 100.0 104.6 108.9 111.0 111.0 109.7 106.8 106.2 107.1 107.1 107.8 105.9 106.9 105.7 107.1 107.0 107.8 109.9 110.3 109.5 93.5 97.7 99.6 100.0 103.9 108.8 114.5 117.9 115.6 107.2 107.2 106.4 108.1 107.9 107.4 106.7 107.3 105.4 107.5 108.0 109.9 109.8 r l!1.7 114.6 Italy (NSA) 91.8 92.9 96.2 100.0 105.9 109.2 109.4 108.4 108.2 105.4 115.5 113.5 49.3 114.1 111.3 113.6 101.2 98.8 108.4 123.3 106.9 120.5 121.7 Data relate to all urban consumers. United States ' United Kingdom 89.0 93.9 96.2 100.0 104.8 107.0 106.7 102.5 102.0 104.5 103.4 104.9 105.0 104.9 106.4 106.7 106.2 107.2 107.8 107.3 r 109.3 r 109.8 ' 109.9 109.9 Canada 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 129.3 135.5 143.1 145.2 147.9 147.6 148.0 148.1 148.2 148.4 149.1 148.8 148.8 147.7 147.6 147.6 147.3 147.6 148.2 148.3 Japan 102.1 104.1 104.8 104.9 105.7 108.0 111.4 115.0 116.9 118.5 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.3 119.2 118.5 118.6 118.7 118.7 119.3 119.5 119.6 119.2 118.6 France 107.9 114.2 117.2 120.9 124.2 128.6 133.0 137.2 140.6 143.5 143.4 143.5 143.5 144.0 144.3 144.4 144.3 144.5 144.9 145.2 145.6 145.9 145.9 '145.9 145.9 United Kingdom Italy Germany 102.7 104.8 104.7 104.9 106.3 109.2 112.1 116.0 120.6 125.6 125.7 126.0 126.0 126.1 126.4 126.7 126.9 128.0 128.5 128.7 129.0 129.3 129.5 129.6 129.7 104.8 111.5 121.1 128.5 134.4 141.1 150.4 159.5 169.8 178.8 186.3 186.3 187.0 187.2 187.4 188.6 189.5 189.5 190.6 191.3 191.7 192.2 192.9 193.3 193.6 194.2 111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 135.4 148.2 156.9 162.7 165.3 165.7 165.3 166.0 166.7 166.6 166.4 166.7 166.0 167.0 167.4 169.4 170.0 170.0 169.2 170.0 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Imports (customs value) Goods: Export! (f.a.s. value) Census basis (by end-use category) l Period 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1994: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1 2 BOP basis 2233 2502 320.2 362.1 389.3 416.9 440.4 456.9 36.5 37.4 37.9 39.4 39.4 41.0 38.5 37.4 42.1 40.4 40.3 r ... 42.0 40.3 Total, Census basis' 227.2 254.1 322.4 363.8 393.6 421.7 448.2 465.1 37.2 38.1 38.6 40.0 40.1 41.7 39.2 38.1 42.8 41.1 41.1 42.8 41.2 Foods, feeds, and beverages 22.3 24.3 32.3 37.2 35.1 35.7 40.3 40.6 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 AutoIndusCap- motive trial ital vehisupcles, goods plies parts except and and automotive enals gines 57.3 66.7 85.1 99.3 104.4 109.7 109.1 111.8 9.2 9.0 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.0 8.7 10.6 9.6 9.9 9.8 10.3 75.8 86.2 109.2 138.8 152.7 166.7 175.9 181.7 14.2 15.1 14.7 15.5 15.5 16.9 16.0 15.3 17.3 16.7 16.6 17.7 16.3 21.7 24.6 29.3 34.8 37.4 40.0 47.0 52.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.3 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately. Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive 14.2 17.7 23.1 36.4 43.3 45.9 51.4 54.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.9 BOP basis Total, Census basis 2 Foods feeds, and Industrial supplies and ages als 368.4 409.8 447.2 477.4 498.3 491.0 536.5 589.4 48.8 49.0 50.4 51.9 50.9 50.1 50.5 51.0 53.5 53.7 54.5 56.0 56.0 365.4 24.4 406.2 24.8 441.0 24.8 473.2 25.1 495.3 26.6 488.5 26.5 532.7 27.5 580.7 27.9 48.0 2.3 48.2 2.3 49.2 2.4 50.8 2.6 50.0 2.3 49.4 2.3 50.1 2.4 50.2 2.4 52.4 2.5 53.1 2.5 54.0 2.5 55.8 2.6 55.8 2.6 101.3 111.0 118.3 132.3 143.2 131.6 138.6 145.6 12.2 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.0 14.4 _ BOP basis AutoCap- motive vehiital goods cles, except parts autoand motive engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive 78.2 85.2 87.7 86.1 87.3 85.7 91.8 102.4 8.0 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.2 9.9 79.4 71.8 84.5 101.4 113.3 116.4 120.7 134.3 152.4 12.8 12.5 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.9 14.1 14.0 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.1 88.7 95.9 102.9 105.7 108.0 122.7 134.0 11.2 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 Goods, Census basis Exports Imports 86.1 97.8 110.0 79.8 — 138.3 — 145.1 6.3 — 138.8 90.2 — 152.1 — 159.6 7.6 1520 97.9 — 118.5 — 127.0 12.1 — 114.8 101.9 — 109.4 — 115.2 24.9 — 90.3 117.0 — 101.7 — 109.0 30.2 — 78.8 117.6 667 — 74.1 45.6 — 28.5 120.9 —84.5 —96.1 55.7 —40.4 128.0 — 115.6 — 132.6 56.9 — 75.7 10.7 -10.8 — 12.3 4.9 -7.5 10.6 -10.1 -11.6 4.8 -6.8 10.8 -10.6 -12.5 4.5 -8.0 11.1 -10.8 -12.5 4.6 -7.9 4.0 -7.5 11.1 -9.9 -11.5 11.2 -9.1 4.6 -4.5 -7.8 '11.0 -10.9 -12.0 '4.1 -7.8 r 3.9 -9.6 !1.5 -12.1 -13.5 '11.8 -9.6 '-11.4 '4.5 -6.9 '11.1 -12.0 -13.3 '4.9 '-8.4 '11.2 -12.9 -14.3 '4.9 '-9.4 11.4 -13.0 -14.0 5.0 -9.0 11.4 -14.6 -15.7 4.7 -11.0 126.8 147.2 163.2 176.6 184.8 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.7 15.1 15.8 '15.1 '15.4 '16.3 '16.0 '16.1 16.3 16.1 Goods Services Goods and services Note.—BOP refers to balance of payments or international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter of 1994, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $41.8 billion, from $37.0 billion in the first quarter. The current account deficit rose to $37.0 billion, from $32.3 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * 15 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES I/ I/ -35 - -45 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise l Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1992: in rv 1993: I n in IV 1994: I' n» Investment income Services Net military transactions 2 3 Net travel and transportation receipts Exports Imports Net balance 237,044 211,157 201,799 219,926 215,915 223,344 250,208 320,230 362,116 389,303 416,913 440,361 456,866 -265,067 247 642 -268,901 -332,418 — 338,088 -368,425 -409,765 -447,189 -477,365 -498,336 —490,981 -536,458 -589,441 -28,023 -36,485 -67,102 -112,492 122 173 - 145,081 159 557 -126,959 115 249 — 109,033 74068 -96,097 132 575 -844 112 -563 -2,547 -4,390 -5,181 — 3,844 -6,315 -6,726 -7,567 -5,485 -3,034 763 144 -992 4 227 -8,438 9798 -7,382 6481 -1,511 5,071 8,978 17,957 20,885 20,840 109,546 136 906 113,744 - 140,080 27 360 -26,336 -525 -1,277 5,138 5,005 111,664 113,787 111,736 119,679 - 140,855 -147,514 - 148,224 — 152,848 -29,191 33,727 — 36,488 33 169 105 — 128 -87 111 5,307 5,565 5,230 4,740 118,018 -154,980 122,670 -164,441 36,962 -41,771 -337 17 4,098 5,455 Balance on goods and services Other services, net Net Balance on goods, services, and income Unilateral transfers, net 4 Balance on current account 86,529 86,200 84,778 104,075 92,760 90,858 99,239 127,414 152,517 160,300 136,914 114,449 113,856 -53,626 -56,412 -53,700 -74,036 -73,087 -79,095 -91,302 -115,806 -138,858 - 139,574 — 122,081 -109,909 -109,910 32,903 29,788 31,078 30,038 19,673 11,763 7,937 11,607 13,659 20,725 14,833 4,540 3,946 16,732 5,632 -26,719 -79,161 - 102,422 - 127,026 - 144,045 -103,217 -76,686 -58,085 - 13,639 -35,844 -71,779 -11,702 -17,075 -17,741 -20,612 -22,950 — 24,176 -23,052 -24,977 -26,134 -33,663 6,687 -32,042 -32,117 5,030 -11,443 -44,460 -99,773 — 125,372 -151,201 — 167,097 -128,194 — 102,820 -91,748 -6,952 -67,886 - 103,896 9,960 9,262 -12,787 - 13,346 27,864 26,158 -26,644 -26,887 1,220 -729 -11,567 - 14,075 -7,040 - 10,308 — 18,607 -24,383 9,567 9,221 9,087 8,897 — 14,422 - 19,070 -22,258 - 19,976 27,727 28,801 28,513 28,816 25,872 -28,133 -26,498 -29,406 1,855 668 2,015 -590 -12,567 — 18,402 -20,243 — 20,566 -7,283 -7,200 -7,613 -10,021 - 19,850 -25,602 -27,856 -30,587 8,874 -24,328 9,288 — 27,011 — —i 29,888 32,270 — 30,699 -811 -34,765 -2,495 -25,139 -29,506 -7,178 -7,464 -32,317 -36,970 1 3 4 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). Payments on foreign assets in U.S. 16,172 12,552 13,209 -24,156 57 796 14,095 14,277 - 109,200 122095 14,266 18,855 -138,789 151 981 17,900 19,961 — 114,824 26,558 90345 28,811 -78,810 -28,472 33,124 37,862 -40,384 36,773 -75,725 2 36 Receipts on U.S. assets abroad Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. Sec p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $15.1 billion in the second quarter of 1994, in contrast to an increase of $1.2 billion in the first quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $24.8 billion in the second quarter, following an increase of $35.2 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARC BILLIONS OF DOLLARS • 100 A / ' ' / \/ \' \ I ' •' COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capita! inflow ( + )] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capital outflow ( — )] Period Total 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1992: III U.S. official reserve assets 3 5 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets 3 Other foreign assets Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,093 Statistical discrepancy Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 5 (unadjusted, end of period) 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 74,609 83,316 77,721 71,323 73,442 24,992 41,359 19,815 20,758 23 415 29908 — 4,443 -12,712 53 075 39,919 -39,670 -17,108 21,096 — 114,147 -122,335 -58,735 -34,917 -39,225 — 104,818 -71,443 -99,360 -168,744 -70,363 -51,512 -61,510 -147,898 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 -3,912 -25,293 -2,158 5,763 3,901 -1,379 -5,097 -6,131 5 006 -5,489 2 821 -2,022 1,006 2,967 1,259 2,307 2,900 1 652 -306 -103,875 -111,239 52 533 -26,298 32 547 103 109 -81,597 98 414 — 144,710 70 512 -60,175 63 759 -146,213 83,032 92,418 83,380 113,932 141,183 226,111 242,983 240,265 218,490 122,192 98,134 146,504 230,698 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,119 35,648 45,387 39,758 8,503 33,910 17,199 40,858 71,681 78,072 88,826 77,534 110,792 142,301 190,463 197,596 200,507 209,987 88,282 80,935 105,646 159,017 - 10,806 -29,395 1,952 1,542 394 -701 -12,364 30 236 29,935 42,581 -7,417 6,363 37,352 36,218 -522 11,197 -6,375 966 78,527 71,323 II III IV -12,659 -35,966 -35,651 -63,622 -983 822 -545 673 488 281 -192 321 -12,164 36 507 34 915 — 62,628 16,772 51,829 71,934 90,162 10,968 17,492 19,259 23,962 5,804 34,337 52,675 66,200 15,737 9,739 -8,427 4,047 6,105 435 -6,643 103 74,378 73,968 75,835 73,442 1994: Ir II p -48,236 -1,827 -59 3,537 490 -217 -48,667 5 147 95,078 42,329 11,530 7,869 83,548 34,460 — 14,525 - 3,532 5,810 480 76,809 75,732 IV 1993: I 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the IL8. i tion in the IMF. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING p*ge Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Changes in GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Implicit Price Deflators and Price Indexes Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment in 1987 Dollars i Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: f Preliminary. * Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1994 0—83-348