Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators SEPTEMBER 1989 (Includes data available as of September 29, 1989) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1989 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member-Designate [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.1 percent (annual rate) or $88.6 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.5 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 4.6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 5,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 5,200 5,200 ^ 4,800 _ 4,800 ^\ —' — — GNP 4,400 IN CURRENT DC UARS 4,400 ^ ^ — >1 4,000 — \ S^ jT ^X' ^-' — \ \ GNP IN 1982 DO LARS x*" c^~--^-cr- — ,_-~'~ ___ 3,600 — 4,000 ^ 3,<500 — —1 3,200 3,200 — -^~ 2,800 2,400 2,800 1 1 1 \ 1981 \ 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1983 1982 1 1984 1 1 1985 1 1 1 1 1986 1 \ 1 \ \ 1988 1987 SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 2,400 1989 COUNCll OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 1984: 19851986: ... Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,524.3 4,880.6 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 32.1 33.9 26.3 61 -58.9 -78.0 -97.4 -112.6 -73.7 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 448.6 547.7 318.9 348.9 335.6 • 358.7 442.4 448.9 493.8 561.2 621.3 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 926.1 968.9 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.8 298.0 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.8 83.3 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 14.1 — 25.8 -67.9 -103.2 -108.9 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 888.9 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 Gross national product Final sales Gross domestic purchases l 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.7 544.5 587.6 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,495.0 4,850.0 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,329.0 4,636.8 4,954.3 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local IV IV IV IV IV ... ... 3,212.5 3,545 8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,297.3 1987: HI IV ... 4,566.6 4,665.8 3,055.9 3,083.3 692.8 749.7 -115.3 -114.6 458.0 482.6 573.4 597.2 933.2 947.5 384.5 388.1 300.2 296.8 84.3 91.3 548.7 559.4 4,557.1 4,602.5 4,681.9 4,780.4 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 -82.8 -74.9 -66.2 -70.8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 297.4 298.0 296.1 300.5 76.7 79.1 71.4 105.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 4,709.8 4,809.2 4,882.3 4,998.7 4,822.5 4,913.4 4,993.1 5,088.1 5,113.1 5,201.7 3,381.4 3,444.1 769.6 775.0 54 0 -50.6 605.6 626.1 659.6 676.6 1,016.0 1,033.2 399.0 406.0 298.7 301.3 100.4 104.7 617.0 627.2 5,085.4 5,174.3 5,167.1 5,252.3 1988: I n ni rv 1989- I r n .... 1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,853.7 4,024.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,446.4 2,513.7 2,598.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 455.5 493.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 194.8 194.1 69 57.0 23.9 49.4 245 26.3 -6.4 19 9 62.3 -84.0 9.1 — 104.3 5.6 -129.7 23.7 -115.7 27.9 -74.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 450.9 530.1 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 566.6 605.0 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 781.8 785.1 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 200.3 11.7 -59.3 27.0 -46.2 41.7 -94.8 7.7 -125.3 -20.8 -135.4 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 541.9 1987- HI.... 3,872.8 3,935.6 2,536.5 2,532.3 472.8 472.7 192.1 191.9 6.8 -118.9 56.6 -109.8 461.3 484.1 1988- I n m 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627.7 483.6 497.8 501.0 492.7 189.1 194.2 195.1 198.1 34.3 21.5 37.5 18.3 -78.2 -72.6 -74.9 -73.8 n . .. 4,106.8 4,132.5 2,641.0 2,653.7 501.0 511.4 195.6 189.3 24.5 19.1 55 0 -51.2 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 1986- IV IT IV IV IV rv IV 1989- I r 1 Gross national product Change in business inventories Federal Net exports Exports State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases 1 National defense Nondefense 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.9 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 252.1 265.2 261.5 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.4 67.4 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 442.1 456.2 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,830.0 3,996.5 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,969.4 4,099.3 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 201.4 211.6 225.3 241.4 255.8 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 86.6 370.6 376.2 392.7 412.1 433.6 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 580.2 593.9 783.5 792.1 340.7 344.9 270.6 266.7 70.1 78.2 442.8 447.2 3,866.0 3,879.0 3,991.7 4,045.5 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 595.6 592.3 606.9 625.2 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 263.0 262.5 258.8 261.6 60.8 65.4 61.0 82.3 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 4,052.9 4,083.3 4,117.6 4,143.2 569.7 587.5 624.6 638.7 799.7 810.3 335.5 343.6 254.4 255.8 81.1 87.8 464.2 466.7 4,082.3 4,113.5 4,161.8 4,183.7 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Imports Total Total Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT tl982—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Gross national product Total Gross private domestic investment Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.8 124.5 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.1 110.1 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.3 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 129.0 134.9 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 97.5 98.7 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.3 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.7 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.4 115.9 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.7 123.6 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 123.2 128.8 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 117.9 118.6 120.5 121.8 108.8 109.0 112.8 113.7 129.8 131.5 96.7 97.0 117.8 118.7 99.3 99.7 98.8 100.6 112.8 112.5 110.9 111.3 120.3 116.8 123.9 125.1 1988- I n m rv 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 122.5 123.9 125.1 126.5 109.3 109.6 110.2 111.2 114.0 115.9 117.1 118.2 132.7 134.2 135.6 137.3 97.7 97.8 98.4 100.6 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 100.8 102.5 104.7 105.1 101.5 102.6 102.7 104.0 115.5 115.0 114.9 118.2 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.9 126.2 121.0 117.1 128.7 126.7 128.1 129.6 130.8 1989- I II r 124.5 125.9 128.0 129.8 111.2 110.8 120.0 123.3 139.0 140.4 100.4 100.2 122.1 124.2 106.3 106.6 105.6 105.9 118.9 118.2 117.4 117.8 123.8 119.2 132.9 134.4 19821983: 1984198519861S87- .. .. IV IV IV.. IV IV.... TTT IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analyi CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period 1988: -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 .6 7.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 5.3 6.6 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 2.5 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5.4 6.9 7.9 4.2 12.4 4.7 6.2 4.2 8.4 9.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987: Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars IV IV IT IV IV in rv I n m IV 1989- I r u. Implicit price deflator Chain price index 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.8 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.6 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 33 2.5 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.4 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 6.2 9.2 3.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 7.6 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.0 Implicit price deflator -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.4 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 22 4.7 -.7 6.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.0 1.9 Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.8 3.9 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.4 2.3 4.7 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.7 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.1 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.3 2.6 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.7 5.8 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.5 2.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 6.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) ' Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 19871988: TV IV IT IV IV m IV I n ni IV 1989: 1 I r n Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Net interest Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) Current dollars 1982 dollars 1 540 8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,367.1 2,520.7 2,731.3 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 2,309.4 2,408.7 2,556.2 2,598.4 2,648.1 2,705.9 2,754.9 2,816.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4 2,173.9 2,282.6 2,419.5 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,198.5 2,309.2 2,343.3 2,381.8 2,408.9 2,434.1 2,453.2 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.104 1.129 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.107 1.109 1.112 1.123 1.132 1.148 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .123 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .123 .122 .122 .122 .122 .124 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .106 .107 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .107 .106 .106 .107 .108 .108 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .730 .744 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .726 .734 .732 .740 .746 .756 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .047 .052 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .048 .050 .050 .051 .053 .055 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .098 .103 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .103 .098 .102 .103 .102 .105 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .041 .044 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .044 .041 .041 .044 .044 .045 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .058 .059 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .060 .057 .060 .059 .058 .061 18.524 18.643 18.704 19.217 19.682 19.996 20.456 20.908 21.446 18.770 19.423 19.783 20.117 20.646 21.090 21.192 21.418 21.453 21.528 21.506 10.769 11.777 12.635 13.039 13.528 14.069 14.746 15.252 15.947 12.865 13.209 13.735 14.342 15.005 15.319 15.546 15.672 15.871 16.068 16.259 2,842.7 2,887.2 2,459.1 2,471.3 1.156 1.168 .125 .126 .110 .111 .768 .778 .057 .060 .096 .093 .045 .041 .051 .053 21.411 21.398 16.449 16.665 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- 4 Total With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventoryvaluation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1982 1983.. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,665.4 3,972.6 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3 312 8 3,473.1 3,694.8 3,799.9 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,690.0 2,907.6 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,571.2 2,709.8 2,778.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 33.6 48.4 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 271.6 280.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 11.5 14.3 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 298.7 328.6 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 313.0 308.2 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 261.5 255.8 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 281.0 276.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 — 1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -19.4 -20.4 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 50.9 46.8 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 51.5 52.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 351.7 392.9 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 355.3 370.0 n in IV 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2.819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 44.0 45.4 37.7 32.0 279.9 286.5 289.3 296.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 49.9 48.9 46.9 41.5 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 1989: I r Tl 4,185.2 4,249.6 3,061.7 3,118.2 59.0 51.3 300.3 304.2 11.8 9.8 316.3 307.8 279.7 275.5 318.0 296.0 -38.3 -20.5 36.6 32.3 436.1 458.4 IV IV IV IT IV IH IY... 1988: I 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods 1982 1983.. 1984 1985... 1986 1987 1988 1982: IY 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: HI IV . 2,050.7 2,234.5 2 430 5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,055.9 3,083.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 421.0 455.2 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 422.0 439.3 424.5 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 195.5 211.6 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 211.3 196.3 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 149.1 162.0 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.0 151.4 1988: I II III IV 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 210.3 212.5 208.4 215.3 1989: I.... r 3,381.4 3,444.1 466.4 471.0 211.7 212.9 Period n Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Totai nondurable goods Food 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.5 81.6 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 77.0 76.7 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 998.1 1,052.3 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 952.1 1.006.0 1,015.4 156.9 162.2 162.7 166.1 79.2 79.9 81.4 86.0 172.1 173.5 82.6 84.6 Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 529.2 559.7 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 531.7 536.8 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 177.2 186.8 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 168.7 178.9 180.6 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.2 76.8 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 76.8 76.7 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.6 229.0 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 218.6 221.3 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,591.7 1,727.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,610.6 1,643.3 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 7.8 6.6 22 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 542.5 554.5 567.8 574.1 180.8 183.6 188.9 193.9 74.3 76.9 78.3 77.6 224.5 227.5 231.2 232.8 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 1,098.3 1,121.5 587.3 592.2 195.0 198.9 77.9 89.5 238.1 241.0 1,816.7 1,851.7 7.0 7.3 2.8 3.0 Other Domestics Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $19.5 billion (annual rate) in August, following an increase of $29.2 billion in July. Wages and salaries increased $9.2 billion in August, compared with an increase of $23.5 billion in July. BILLIONS OF DOLIARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 I 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,400 1,400 '"• OTHER INCOME 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 400 miiliim I l l l l l l l l l l 1981 1982 1985 1984 1983 1986 Illllllllll 1987 • SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE 1988 1989 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total personal income Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb. Mar r V May r July '. Aug p . ... Wage and salary disbursements l 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,777.6 4,064.5 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,838.6 1,975.4 2,094.8 2,249.4 2,429.0 4,094.2 4,118.6 4,180.4 4,168.9 4,206.3 2,447.7 2,465.6 2,497.1 2,501.6 2,516.7 4,273.1 4,319.5 4,360.7 4,387.1 4,396.3 4,417.5 4,446.7 4,466.2 2,545.4 2,557.3 2,579.4 2,601.3 2,603.5 2,621.7 2,645.2 2,654.4 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income 1 2 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 182.9 187.6 199.3 212.8 228.9 231.1 232.9 234.7 236.5 238.2 239.7 241.3 242.9 244.4 246.0 247.5 249.1 250.7 Farm Nonfarm 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 38.6 33.4 47.1 19.5 29.4 48.0 65.9 63.0 56.4 54.3 43.2 37.2 36.0 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 288.5 290.9 295.8 295.7 297.4 299.6 300.6 300.8 304.6 303.5 304.6 307.1 308.6 Rental income of persons 4 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 16.5 16.7 16.4 16.1 16.0 13.8 11.8 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 Personal dividend income 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 75.5 78.7 85.8 92.0 102.2 103.9 104.7 105.8 106.5 106.9 108.4 109.4 110.3 111.0 111.4 111.8 112.8 113.3 Personal interest income 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 444.7 478.0 493.2 523.2 571.1 576.0 583.0 590.8 598.6 606.4 616.5 628.9 641.5 648.4 655.2 661.8 668.2 674.4 Transfer payments 5 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.8 521.5 548.2 584.7 587.9 588.7 592.2 593.5 595.6 610.7 614.2 624.2 623.9 625.5 630.9 632.3 634.6 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 149.3 161.9 172.9 194.9 195.9 197.2 199.5 199.1 200.1 209.0 209.8 211.3 212.6 212.7 213.8 214.9 215.4 Nonfarm personal income 6 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,271.3 3,469.4 3,714.7 4,003.7 4,034.6 4,064.1 4,112.3 4,128.4 4,155.9 4,204.0 4,232.4 4,276.5 4,309.4 4,320.5 4,352.6 4,387.7 4,408.4 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income was about unchanged in the second quarter of 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 ,800 1,400 1,400 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 16,000 16,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 14,000 - CURRENT DOLLARS 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 1982 DOLLARS 8,000 8,000 I 6,000 1981 1982 1983 I 1984 I I I 1985 6,000 1986 1987 1988 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Disposable personal ineome Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984. 1985 1986.... 1987 1988 2,258.5 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,777.6 4,064.5 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.7 586.6 1,918.0 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,668.6 2,838.7 3,013.3 3,205.9 3,477.8 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1982 dollars Dollars 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,504.5 2,713.3 2,888.5 3,104.1 3,333.1 136.9 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 125.4 124.9 101.8 144.7 2,214.3 2,248.6 2^261.5 2,331.9 2,469.8 2,542.8 2,635.3 2,676.6 2,793.2 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,257 11,861 12,469 13,140 14,116 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal ineome Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,253 10,985 11,576 12,340 13,131 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,489 9,839 10,123 10,303 10,546 — 1.1 7.1 9,769 9,724 9,930 10,419 10,625 10,905 10,970 11,337 .5 2.1 4.9 2.0 2.6 .6 3.3 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.1 3.2 4.2 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,051 239,322 241,660 243,985 246,378 9,722 — .5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,597.8 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,063.4 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,961.4 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 102.0 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,629 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 9,068 9,825 10,479 11,240 11,825 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,214 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.3 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,579 1987: m.... IV 3,795.5 3,908.7 572.0 589.2 3,223.5 3,319.4 3,149.9 3,177.6 73.6 141.8 2,675.6 2,726.2 13,196 13,552 10,953 11,130 12,510 12,588 10,384 10,339 5.6 6.6 2.3 4.3 244,274 244,936 1988: I II 3,948.5 4,026.6 4,097.6 4,185.2 572.2 590.7 585.9 597.8 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587.4 3,244.4 3,301.9 3,362.1 3,424.0 131.9 134.0 149.6 163.4 2,757.2 2,773.3 2,806.4 2,835.9 13,754 13,966 14,235 14,504 11,232 11,273 11,377 11,466 12,824 13,028 13,229 13,439 10,473 10,515 10,573 10,624 3.7 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 245,476 246,008 246,685 247,343 4,317.8 4,400.3 628.3 652.6 3,689.5 3,747.7 3,483.8 3,547.0 205.7 200.7 2,881.7 2,887.6 14,884 15,084 11,625 11,622 13,641 13,862 10,654 10,681 5.7 5.6 5.4 247,890 248,456 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV m.... IV 1989: I r n .... 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. i Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $5.8 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $5.5 billion. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS Of DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 240 200 r ,*~" 160 rrnr- — "—• ' ' 120 _——-—' - 160 120 GKl5SS FARM INC OMb 80 ^^' 60 60 ^ 40 /\ * /\ x 20 ' ~\ \ i \ \ i ^•* » / \ ' ' / t « . I t I \ /' » 20 NET FARM INCOME I i \ /' I \« | 10 ' /**'* J ' —' •• X 1 / .'• 1 * 1 ' \* 10 * \ \l 1 1 1 198) 1 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1983 I 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1983 1 1986 1 I I I 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAl RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1980 1981 . . 1982 1983 . 1984 1985 r 1986 r 1987 r 1988 r 1986: UJ r IV 1987- I r' n ... r mr IV .. 1988: I *r n ... r mr rv .. 1989: I ' n"... 149.3 166.4 163.5 153.0 174.9 166.4 160.4 171.6 177.6 156.2 164.2 170.5 172.4 167.6 175.6 174.7 182.0 175.0 178.6 197.7 203.5 139.7 141.7 142.6 136.6 142.4 144.1 135.5 139.5 151.5 135.7 139.3 131.3 143.8 144.8 138.1 144.4 148.8 160.4 152.2 152.7 168.9 Livestock and products 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 75.7 78.9 76.2 74.2 72.8 76.4 77.8 75.8 81.8 75.3 78.3 80.3 83.0 80.5 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other /arm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. z Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.3 64.0 63.8 72.6 59.5 65.1 58.6 67.4 66.9 62.2 62.6 73.5 82.1 71.9 69.7 88.4 3 Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars -6.3 6.5 -1.4 109 6.3 24 -2.7 — .4 43 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.4 124.5 132.0 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.2 32.3 38.0 47.0 45.6 22 -1.8 1 .3 2 -1.7 121.1 120.7 35.1 43.5 49.2 47.2 41.5 49.9 47.5 52.3 39.8 42.9 63.4 68.9 40 -4.4 47 -4.1 121.3 125.1 126.0 125.6 127.2 129.7 135.2 135.7 6.7 5.9 134.3 134.6 1982 dollars 3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.9 29.1 33.4 40.0 37.7 30.7 37.8 42.4 40.3 35.3 42.0 39.8 43.3 32.7 34.8 50.9 54.7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $22.0 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $12.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 J6U SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 320 \ /^ 280 280 240 200 /~~\ v ^ 120 80 240 200 ^ ^~ —"~ "... 160 s ^_ s" ~~\ \ / ^/ y \ 160 . ^0 f \ " PROFITS BEFORE TAX • -N PR DFITS AFTER T, VX .-" ,''' ^-~.,_ f -X 120 s \ s —'* '~^^ '^ r _ <~<r~ 80 TAX LIABILITY ^ 40 *"\ "'/' \ "X UNDISTI IBUTED PROFI' i i i 1 1 1 1982 1981 \ \ \ 1 1 1 1 1984 1983 1 s* 1 "' I 1 1 1986 1985 1 1 1 1 1987 1 1 40 1 1 1 0 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985.. . 1986 1987.. .. 1988 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 208.7 238.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 30.5 29.8 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 178.2 208.4 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 76.6 98.4 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 41.1 40.1 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 124.7 137.9 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 142.0 168.9 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.7 110.4 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 43.3 58.5 -43.1 24 2 -10.4 109 -5.8 17 6.7 18 9 -25.0 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 13 4 -8.1 16 -6.6 80 1987: HI . IV 261.5 255.8 222.6 211.8 30.2 29.9 192.4 181.9 87.3 84.5 43.2 41.2 281.0 276.2 132.7 127.3 148.3 148.9 100.0 102.8 48.3 46.1 -19.4 -20.4 1988: I II 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 225.7 235.8 239.0 252.2 27.7 29 7 31.6 30.1 198.0 206.1 207.3 222.1 94.6 98.2 95.1 105.5 42.2 37.3 39.2 41.8 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 129.0 138.4 141.2 143.2 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 105.7 108.6 112.2 115.2 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.4 20 7 -28.8 304 -20.1 279.7 275.5 233.1 231.8 29.3 28.6 203.9 203.2 96.5 90.3 34.1 36.9 318.0 296.0 144.4 134.9 173.6 161.1 118.5 120.9 55.1 40.2 -38.3 -20.5 m. . IV 1989- I r n 1 2 See p. 4 for profits with inventor}' valuation and capita! consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $9.4 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $3.7 billion. There was a $27.4 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $27.7 billion in the first quarter of 1989. BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLL ARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 - ^~" "~ GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC /"* INVFSTAAPMT 700 r^~" r~>V/i / 700 ~^1 — ^—1 600 / ~__-\ - ^N/ 400 --.. — '"' - NONRESIDENTIA 1 Fl>CED INVESTME^•IT 500 600 ---•• ,---' 500 • •* - 400 ^,'~ ^1 — RESIDENTIAL Fl> ED INVESTMEh 300 300 ~ - _,~--~ 200 200 .' - ~— '— —. 100 CHA NGE IN BUSIS ESS INVENTORIES /X ~\ ,'' 0 1 -100 | 1981 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1 1 1983 1 | I -X .. 1 1 1 1985 1984 100 /N ,V — " '"•-*.. 0 1 I 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 -100 1989 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS OURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: IV IV IV IV IV TJ3 IV 1988: I n in IV 1989: I r n Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 692.8 749.7 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 769.6 775.0 Nonresidential Total Total 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 652.5 670.6 719.6 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 660.9 683.2 686.3 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 742.0 747.6 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 435.2 444.3 487.2 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 435.8 457.0 458.6 472.7 487.1 493.2 495.8 503.1 512.5 Structures 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 139.0 133.8 140.3 ' 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 133.7 137.3 138.9 137.1 139.9 142.0 142.5 144.7 142.4 Producers' durable equipment 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 296.2 310.5 346.8 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 302.2 319.8 319.7 335.6 347.2 351.3 353.3 358.5 370.1 Residential 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 217.3 226.4 232.4 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 225.1 226.2 227.7 226.1 232.1 233.2 238.4 238.8 235.1 Total -8.3 24.0 -24.5 71 67.7 11.3 6.9 29.3 30.6 -59.9 31.0 45.0 7.2 -12.2 9.5 63.3 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 27,7 27.4 Nonfarm -2.4 18.3 — 23.1 .4 60.5 14.6 8.6 30.5 34.2 -51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 -8.0 14.0 61.3 24.2 30.4 41.5 40.8 19.1 23.6 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department July-August survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 10.0 percent in 1989, following a rise of 10.5 percent in 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 300 300 NONMANUFACTURING -^ 200 200 MANUFACTURING 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1981 1983 1982 1985 1984 1987 1986 1988 J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY _!/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 Mining Transportation Public utilities Commereial and other Total nonfarm business 2 . Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985.. 1986 1987 1988 ' 1989 "... 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.61 430.76 473.65 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 181.90 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 11.01 78.30 82.23 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 14.88 88.01 99.67 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.18 264.44 291.75 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.66 12.22 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.34 24.75 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.67 50.76 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.76 204.02 1987: TJI r IV. 393.05 403.96 147.58 151.36 71.67 72.22 75.91 79.14 245.47 252.60 11.80 12.28 19.02 19.30 45.09 45.75 169.56 175.28 147.58 151.36 245.47 252.60 1988- I ' II ' 413.34 427.54 435.61 442.11 157.97 162.62 168.76 173.32 75.28 77.38 79.15 80.56 82.69 85.24 89.62 92.76 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 12.61 13.15 12.53 12.38 20.35 20.95 22.02 22.04 45.05 45.60 46.69 48.73 177.37 185.21 185.61 185.65 157.97 162.62 168.76 173 32 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 1989: I r II r 4 459.47 470.86 481.24 483.04 175.22 181.53 185.41 185.44 81.26 82.97 82.51 82.17 93.96 98.57 102.90 103.27 284.24 289.33 295.82 297.60 12.15 12.70 12.34 11.70 23.13 24.26 25.76 25.85 50.81 52.01 50.54 49.69 198.15 200.36 207.18 210.36 175.22 181.53 185.41 185.44 284.24 289.33 295.82 297.60 lllr IV. ni 4 IT 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical sen-ices; professional services; 10 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 483.48 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 181.90 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 317.17 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 291.75 Surveyed annualIy3 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1989, corrected for biases. Note,—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1986. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In August, civilian employment rose 138,000 and unemployment fell 76,000. MILLKDNS OF PERSONS* 126 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED r^~ 122 122 r^^ LABOR FORCE 118 ru>i ""** 118 .— — ' -^ 114 110 r~/^~~ ^>^-~s~- —" — -•• .-~--.~x 98 •. ^ ^"""**" •^»*~ s 114 ^s"' 106 ?02 -s~-f * 110 — **"" -'-\'~ 106 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 102 \ 98 •V \. ^ ** ^ ^ — 12 12 8 ^^ . •"" ^' 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 ii 1 11 0 1982 1981 — 8 s. \ 1 INEMPLOYMEh T 1983 - 4 II III 1 II 1 II it 1 11 1 it 1 1 1 1984 1985 1987 1986 0 1989 1988 '16YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1988 1988: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 186,522 186,666 186,801 186,949 187,098 1,692 1,704 1,687 1,705 1,696 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 187,995 188,149 188,286 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 1,666 1,666 1,688 108,544 110,315 111,872 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Agricultural Total Total Part time for economic reasons * Total Civilian 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 59.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 122,000 121,984 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,203 115,370 115,573 115,947 116,009 3,142 3,176 3,238 3,238 3,193 112,061 112,194 112,335 112,709 112,816 4,972 4,862 4,727 4,819 5,033 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 1,636 1,568 1,554 1,502 1,495 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.1 62.3 62.4 62.4 62.6 62.6 123,428 123,181 123,264 123,659 123,610 124,102 123,956 124,018 116,711 116,853 117,136 117,113 117,215 117,541 117,459 117,597 3,300 3,223 3,206 3,104 3,112 3,096 3,219 3,307 113,411 113,630 113,930 114,009 114,102 114,445 114,240 114,290 4,837 4,697 4,709 4,930 4,609 4,801 4,505 4,553 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 6,421 1,512 1,304 1,310 1,426 1,313 1,258 1,472 1,305 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 66.6 66.5 66.5 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.0 63.0 106,940 108,670 110,204 99,303 100,397 99,526 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 123,692 123,688 123,778 124,215 124,259 116,895 117,074 117,260 117,652 117,705 125,124 124,865 124,948. 125,343 125,283 125,768 125,622 125,706 118,407 118,537 118,820 118,797 118,888 119,207 119,125 119,285 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) is percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Employment including resident Armed Forces 4,064 4,499 5,852 7,637 8,273 59.2 'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. SollrCK Department of Lobor] Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In August, the overall unemployment rate fell slightly, to 5.1 percent, and the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged, at 5.2 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 20 15 Vv¥ A- 15 ^ TEENAGERS (16-19) 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER -T MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1985 1985 1987 1986 1989 1988 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1980. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 .. 1987 1988 ... Unemployment rate, all workers 1 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 By sex and age All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.9 6.3 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 5.5 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 By selected groups By race Both sexes 16-19 years Experienced wage and salary workers Black and other Black 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 6.9 7.3 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 White 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 Married men, spouse present 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 Labor force time lost (percent) 2 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 1988: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 15.4 15.5 15.0 14.1 14.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 10.0 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.0 11.4 10.9 11.2 11.2 11.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.2 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.7 16.4 14.8 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.6 14.7 14.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 10.3 9.6 9.5 12.0 11.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.9 10.9 11.1 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6 8.3 7.9 8.7 8.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 7.9 7.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.7 7.2 6.9 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.9 1 2 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours tost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per- 12 cent of potentially available lafcor force hours. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In August, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks was unchanged, the percentage for 5-14 weeks rose, and the percentages for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 - 50 JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS - 30 *. ..-»A\.' 20 20 JOB LEAVERS 10 - 10 NEW ENTRANTS linn 1989 1985 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) ' Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,056 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 1988- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 46.8 47.4 47.4 47.6 46.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.5 31.1 12.3 11.8 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.9 12.1 11.9 10.9 11.2 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.6 12.8 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.8 46.2 46.7 45.9 46.2 46.5 14.6 14.9 15.3 14.7 15.1 27.3 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.2 11.9 11.5 11.6 12.2 12.1 2,069 2,025 1,972 1,989 2,032 305 293 296 301 309 1,914 1,734 1,677 1,857 2,205 1989: Jan Peb .. Mar 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 6,421 47.0 50.6 49.4 47.2 47.7 50.4 48.1 48.1 30.7 29.1 29.4 31.1 31.7 30.4 29.4 31.5 11.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.0 10.0 12.9 11.5 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 9.6 9.1 9.6 8.9 12.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.1 12.0 11.3 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.0 46.4 45.2 46.0 45.7 42.7 42.0 44.3 46.5 14.7 15.5 14.4 15.0 17.5 15.5 15.3 16.2 27.3 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.1 31.2 29.4 27.5 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 10.7 11.3 11.0 9.8 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 2,134 2,216 2,177 293 309 323 300 317 335 339 319 2,685 2,695 2,567 2,221 1,960 1,941 2,174 May T 3 July .. . . 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bun lu of Ijabor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 110,000 in August. The size of the increase was held down by a net loss of 108,000 workers from payrolls due to labor-management disputes. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 .— 100 _ • ' 26 ,^ SERVICES r^rTl ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS — VI 24 — 90 ,-•-'''" — -""" 22 80 - — — — 20 70 f ETAIL TRADE — SEI VICE-PRODL CING INDUSTRIE 5 18 60 — ^—^ AAAKI - 40 - — 30 18 Illllllllll - iniiiiiiii iiiiiliini mill mill, Milk Y — r~\—1 I* 1 NSTRUCTO 4 1987 •— 1r^ •— \ 1986 UFACTURINC 6 iniitliiin minium iiiiiliiiii iiiiiliini iiiiiliini iimliinlj 1985 ' __ 1 " y GOC5DS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES ~~~~~- , mill fun miiliiiiilmnliiiii iimlimik1 If 20 50 20 _—•—" __ \2c-—\ GOVERNMEh'n 1988 f 1989 1985 M.lllMII, Illllllllll 1986 1 1987 SEASONALLY ADJ USTED OURCE: DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR 1988 Illiil.MlIf 1989 COUNCIL OF ECGNOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries ; 3 Penod Total nonagricultural employment Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 ConTotal D hi , goo s Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade -p Ketail.. trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Government Services Total Federal 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,584 25,658 25,497 23313 23*334 24,727 24)859 24,558 24)708 25,249 1988: Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec 105,954 106,207 106,475 106,824 107,097 25,303 25,313 25,384 25,460 25,513 5,153 5,163 5,162 5,191 5,213 19,425 19,431 19,505 19,557 19,589 11,462 11,464 11,509 11,545 11,565 7,963 7,967 7,996 8,012 8,024 80,651 80,894 81,091 81,364 81,584 5,572 5,581 5,596 5,616 5,634 6,051 6,071 6,086 6,104 6,125 19,182 19,188 19,229 19,282 19,328 6,686 6,695 6,710 6,726 6,744 25,784 25,888 25,986 26,111 26,230 17,376 17,471 17,484 17,525 17,523 2,967 2,985 2,986 2,983 2,981 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June rr. July .. Aug p.. 107,442 107,711 107,888 108,101 108,310 108,607 108,791 108,901 25,626 25,629 25,646 25,671 25,672 25,648 25,683 25,724 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,279 5,283 5,283 5,317 5,325 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,672 19,667 19,650 19,659 19,670 11,605 11,594 11,604 11,600 11,594 11,567 11,554 11,567 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,072 8,073 8,083 8,105 8,103 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,638 82,959 83,108 83,177 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,700 5,716 5,741 5,619 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,206 6,222 6,230 6,240 6,246 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,489 19,528 19,551 19,582 19,601 6,746 6,763 6,774 6,776 6,790 6,808 6,812 6,836 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,651 26,711 26,931 26,972 27,057 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,626 17,687 17,723 17,761 17,818 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,982 2,999 2,995 2,999 3,004 1980. . 1981 1982 . 90,406 91,156 89)566 is',181 18)434 19,378 19)260 18,965 19^024 19,403 12,187 12,109 11,039 10)732 11,505 11,490 11,230 11,194 11,437 8,098 8,061 7,741 7)702 7,873 7)770 7,734 7)830 7,967 65,659 65,753 60)866 69,769 72,660 74,967 77,492 80,335 4,346 4,188 3)905 3,948 4,383 4)673 4,816 4*. 967 5,125 20,285 20,170 1 Includes ail full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-emploved persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 64,748 15,035 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,955 6,283 6,547 6 676 17,890 18,619 19,036 19)694 20,797 22)000 23,053 24)286 25,600 16,241 16,031 15,837 15)869 16,024 16)394 16,693 17,010 17,372 2,866 2,772 2)739 2)774 2,807 2)875 2,899 2)943 2,971 15 189 5,160 5 298 5,082 4)954 5,159 5)288 5,255 5)372 5,548 5,275 5 358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,717 5,753 5,844 6,029 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,356 17,930 18,483 19 110 5,146 5,165 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or noiisupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Total private nonagrieultural ] Period Total 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34.6 34.6 34.8 34.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May July "..... Aug". 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.9 Total private nonagricultura! 1 Overtime 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 Manufacturing $7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 10.21 10.25 10.29 10.30 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.42 10.45 10.49 10.53 $6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 9.32 9.37 9.43 9.42 9.45 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.61 9.60 9.62 9.70 9.69 3 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 2 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars Total private nonagricultural * Manufacturing Current dollars 1977 dollars 2 $235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 322.47 325.14 328.16 326.87 327.92 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.39 332.16 332.85 337.56 335.27 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 166.82 167.68 168.55 167.28 167.39 167.55 166.44 166.44 167.53 165.01 165.10 167.03 165.89 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 418.61 421.28 423.95 424.36 422.71 424.56 426.21 426.40 429.52 427.22 428.45 430.09 430.68 $367.78 $147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 183.57 185.08 186.30 185.60 187.11 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.44 187.56 188.43 190.97 189.58 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 493.08 492.53 494.05 499.66 503.04 497.07 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 494.17 498.17 511.30 508.64 Current dollars 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 1977 dollars -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 -1.0 -.9 -1.2 .0 -.1 -.9 -.5 3 -1.2 -.8 .7 -2.0 1.6 -.9 -.7 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Percent ch ange from Index (June 1981 = 100) 1I months earlk r 3 months earlie r Period 1980: 19811982: 19831984: 19851986: 19871988- Total compensation Wages and salaries 94.7 954 103 8 1103 115 8 120.6 Dec Dec.... Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1040 110.7 1170 122.7 1275 131.6 1360 142 6 1986- Mar.... June Sept... Dec 1289 129.0 130 8 131.6 1987- Mar June Sept Dec 132 9 133 8 135 1 1360 1988: 1989: Mar June... Sept Dec Mar . .... 138.1 139 8 141.2 142.6 144.4 146 1 1256 129.5 133 8 139 3 126 8 1299 128 8 1295 130 8 131 7 133 0 133.8 135.1 1366 137.9 139 3 140.8 142 2 Benefits Total compensation Wages and salaries 93.0 1043 111.7 120.0 127.9 1324 136.9 141 7 151 3 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 .6 .6 7 10 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .5 1342 134.8 136 1 136.9 1l 8 7 .6 1.0 .9 .7 .5 138 1 139.3 1403 141.7 10 7 10 10 146.1 148.2 149.7 151.3 1.5 12 1.0 10 .7 1.0 .6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 154.0 156.5 1.3 12 1.1 1.0 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. J Benefits 1 .6 10 Total compensation 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 1.4 .4 1.0 .6 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.6 9.8 9.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.9 Wages and salaries 9.0 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 Benefits ' 3.1 3.3 4.1 11.8 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.8 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 3,0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 5.4 5.6 4.1 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output Business sector 1 Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons z Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.4 101.0 100.2 102.6 105.2 99.0 100.0 99.1 102.0 104.2 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.3 107.9 105.3 107.2 113.3 107.8 108.5 105.9 108.0 114.4 131.8 144.1 154.9 160.8 167.4 131.6 144.0 154.7 160.8 167.2 97.0 96.1 97.3 97.8 97.6 96.7 96.0 97.1 97.8 97.5 132.6 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.1 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 1985 1986. . 1987 1988 107.3 109.8 111.1 113.1 105.6 107.7 108.9 111.2 124.2 128.0 133.4 140.0 123.9 127.6 133.1 140.3 115.7 116.6 120.1 123.8 117.4 118.4 122.2 126.2 174.8 183.8 191.0 200.4 174.0 182.9 189.8 198.9 98.4 101.7 101.9 102.7 98.0 101.1 101.2 101.9 162.8 167.5 171.9 177.2 164.9 169.8 174.2 178.8 162.2 165.6 170.0 174.9 163.8 167.6 172.0 176.5 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: IV IV IV IV 100.9 103.5 105.7 108.4 99.5 103.0 106.2 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 104.1 109.7 114.3 116.2 104.7 110.8 115.5 118.1 158.2 163.2 169.9 178.6 158.0 162.9 169.6 177.5 97.9 97.8 97.8 99.3 97.8 97.6 97.6 98.7 156.8 157.7 160.7 164.9 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 1986: HI IV 109.6 109.8 107.5 107.6 127.7 128.9 127.2 128.4 116.5 117.4 118.3 119.3 185.1 187.4 184.1 186.4 102.2 102.8 101.7 102.2 168.9 170.6 171.2 173.2 166.7 167.1 168.8 169.2 109.9 110.7 111.7 112.5 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.3 130.4 132.2 134.4 136.7 130.0 132.0 134.1 136.4 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.5 120.7 121.6 122.4 123.7 188.2 189.5 191.8 195.2 187.0 188.3 190.5 193.9 101.9 101.4 101.7 102.6 101.3 100.7 101.0 101.9 171.2 171.3 171.6 173.5 173.6 173.4 173.9 175.8 168.2 169.6 170.7 171.3 170.3 171.4 172.6 173.4 113.3 2.7 113.6 113.6 111.1 110.7 111.6 112.1 138.2 139.3 140.7 141.9 138.0 139.5 141.1 142.8 122.0 123.6 123.9 124.9 124.3 126.1 126.4 127.3 196.5 199.3 195.1 197.8 202.2 204.8 200.5 203.3 102.3 102.7 102.9 103.1 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.4 173.5 176.9 178.1 180.2 175.7 178.7 179.6 181.3 171.9 174.1 175.8 177.9 173.8 175.6 177.0 179.6 113.9 114.3 111.8 112.0 143.6 144.2 143.6 144.5 126.0 126.2 128.5 129.0 207.2 205.7 208.6 103.0 103.1 102.3 102.1 181.9 184.3 184.1 186.3 179.4 181.4 180.8 182.8 1987: I n m IV 1988- I n. m IV 1989: I r n. 104.5. 210.6 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -0.3 1.5 7 2.4 2.6 -0.4 1.1 -.9 3.0 2.1 11 2.1 31 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 -0.8 .6 -2.4 1.8 5.7 07 .6 -2.4 2.0 6.0 10.5 9.3 7.5 3.8 4.1 10.5 9.5 7.4 4.0 3.9 -2.6 -.9 1.2 .6 o -2.6 -.7 1.1 .7 -.4 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.3 2.0 1.1 2.1 4.2 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 2.2 .8 3.0 3.1 2.6 .9 3.2 3.2 4.4 5.2 3.9 4.9 4.1 5.1 3.7 4.8 .8 3.3 .2 .8 .5 3.2 .1 .7 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 IV IV IV IV 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 .9 .8 -.5 10.4 3.5 3.6 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 -3.0 6.8 2.0 2.1 -3.1 8.1 2.2 2.7 4.1 5.7 3.5 6.3 4.6 4.4 3.5 5.8 2.8 1.6 .0 2.1 3.3 .3 .0 1.6 1.5 2.3 2.0 4.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 5.0 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1986: HI IV -1.6 .8 -1.7 .3 .8 4.0 .7 3.7 2.5 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.6 5.0 4.6 5.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 6.4 4.2 6.5 4.7 4.9 1.0 5.1 1.0 .5 2.6 3.9 2.9 .4 3.3 3.6 2.7 4.7 5.6 6.7 7.1 5.2 6.1 6.6 7.0 4.3 2.9 2.7 4.1 4.8 2.8 2.9 4.2 1.9 2.7 4.8 7.4 1.4 2.7 4.8 7.3 -3.3 -2.0 1.1 3.6 -3.8 -2.1 1.1 3.5 1.4 .1 .9 4.3 1.0 -.6 1.2 4.5 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.0 1.7 2.7 -2.0 3.1 .2 3.0 -1.5 3.4 1.9 4.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.7 5.4 .9 3.2 1.8 5.9 1.2 2.8 2.8 5.9 5.8 5.2 2.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 -.8 1.3 1.0 .7 -.9 .9 .8 1.4 .1 8.1 2.6 5.0 -.3 7.1 2.0 3.9 1.5 5.1 4.1 4.8 1.0 4.3 3.2 5.9 1.0 1.3 -1.3 .7 4.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 3.8 .6 3.8 1.7 4.8 6.8 4.8 5.6 -.6 .4 -.6 1 3.7 5.5 6.2 4.9 3.3 4.6 2.8 4.5 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I II '. 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. * Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Beginning with data released August 3, 1989, hours of labor input are defined as hours at th' work site rather than hours paid. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose in August, and capacity utilization was unchanged. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 240 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 220 140 200 180 120 .X* ^-V " ^'" BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 160 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 100 Illllllllll 160 140 "*^~" 720 NONDURABLE 120 100 ^— r^ .»— ^"~*' _--*^^ Illllllllll lllttllllll ' \"' CONSUMER GOODS iiiniiiiii iiiniiiiii Illllllllll PERCENT* 100 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE " (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 90 ill i l i u m i i i i i l i i i i i i i i n i i i i i i 100 -^ 140 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION r r ,__r 140 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION ~ 120 , 80 X^ !• ' II =. *^~~ ^-^-1 - 100 70 llllll|llll 1985 1985 1989 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1987 •SEA5ONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Illllllllll 1988 Illllllllll 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Aug . Sept Oct. Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May r. June r. July r Aug p 1 Output as percent of capacity. Capacity utilization rate, percent * Industry production indexes, 1977—100 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 84.21 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 49.10 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 35.11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.8 143.9 9.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 80.9 70.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9 144.0 144.4 145.3 145.8 146.3 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.2 145.7 145.1 145.3 146.3 146.7 147.1 103.8 103.7 103.1 104.7 104.9 117.8 113.0 113.9 113.7 115.4 83.8 83.7 84.0 84.1 84.3 84.0 84.0 84.3 84.4 84.4 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 141.9 142.0 142.4 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.0 2.9 2.8 147.2 146.8 147.0 148.0 148.1 148.6 148.6 148.9 146.2 145.9 145.8 146.9 147.1 147.3 146.9 147.5 148.5 148.1 148.6 149.6 149.5 150.4 150.9 150.9 103.0 100.9 101.5 102.4 102.0 101.2 101.5 103.9 114.0 116.5 117.5 117.1 115.6 114.0 115.0 113.9 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.2 84.0 83.9 83.8 83.8 84.7 84.3 84.1 84.5 84.3 84.3 84.1 84.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Intermediate products Final products Equipment Consumer goods Period Total Total 1 Total * Business Business supplies Energy 25.52 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 43.28 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.8 101.5 Dec 145.8 145.8 146.4 146.8 147.7 135.0 134.8 136.4 136.8 138.2 125.7 126.3 129.3 129.2 131.9 138.5 138.0 139.0 139.7 140.5 160.1 160.4 159.7 159.9 160.4 160.2 160.8 160.2 161.2 162.6 184.9 184.5 184.0 182.2 180.5 152.3 152.9 154.0 154.2 155.0 138.1 138.4 140.0 140.7 141.4 164.4 165.2 165.9 165.7 166.7 126.5 126.5 127.5 128.3 128.3 103.2 101.5 101.3 102.3 102.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June r July T Aug p 148.2 148.6 1489 150.2 150.4 150.9 150.4 150.8 138.5 138.7 138.4 139.5 139.2 139.6 138.9 139.0 131.5 131.6 130.1 132.2 131.2 130.8 128.0 129.6 141.1 141.4 141.4 142.2 142.1 142.9 142.9 142.5 161.1 161.6 162.8 164.3 165.4 165.9 165.7 166.4 163.8 165.0 166.3 167.8 169.1 169.4 168.9 169.9 180.0 179.3 178.7 179.9 180.7 181.1 181.7 181.2 156.6 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.3 157.0 157.3 157.6 142.3 139.5 139.3 140.2 140.2 141.0 141.0 141.5 168.8 168.4 170.4 170.4 170.0 170.7 171.2 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.2 127.9 127.7 128.4 128.9 100.5 100.5 101.0 101.7 101.1 99.0 99.1 100.9 . 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989: Nondurable goods Construction supplies Total Total 44.77 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144.3 1980. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1988: Durable goods Defense and space equipment Aug Sept Oct Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977—100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: . Aug Sept Oct Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May r July r Aug p Apparel products Printing and publishing cals and products Foods 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89.2 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 .152.7 170.8 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 90.8 93.1 94.2 92.7 90.0 78.9 81.4 83.1 80.8 77.6 122.1 122.5 122.6 124.6 125.1 174.1 174.8 173.8 175.4 177.8 182.2 181.8 183.0 182.2 180.9 131.8 132.7 134.8 135.2 136.8 117.5 118.5 121.7 122.9 125.5 133.8 133.5 137.5 139.4 143.0 108.9 109.9 109.5 110.1 108.8 186.7 188.0 188.1 188.5 188.0 154.8 155.3 156.7 157.5 158.1 143.3 143.2 144.0 145.7 145.8 93.2 91.1 88.4 90.1 87.2 87 3 89.1 89 5 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.0 73.2 72.9 74.7 124.5 124.5 123.8 123.1 124.8 125.4 126.1 126.4 178.7 180.8 183.0 184.7 186.5 187.0 186.1 186.0 180.9 181.7 181.6 182.2 181.6 182.0 180.9 181.6 136.7 136.4 134.8 136.4 135.5 134.2 131.9 133.7 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.0 119.7 116.5 110.2 114.3 139.9 132.8 133.4 135.1 135.5 137.1 136.0 110.2 110.2 109.9 111.3 111.5 112.2 193.0 194.6 198.5 200.1 199.0 200.9 200.3 202.0 159.0 158.5 159.2 159.3 158.2 159.4 160.2 146.6 146.3 145.4 146.6 147.2 147.7 147.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Lumber and products Iron and steel Total 1980. 1981 1982 1983 1984 Nonelectrical machinery Fabricated metal products Period Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Private Period Total new construction expenditures Construction contracts Federal, State, and local Residential Total New housing units Tola! ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Total value index (1982=100) 3 Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 253.0 252.8 261.3 248.0 282.4 329.6 356.6 387.0 397.7 409.7 201.3 194.3 204.7 194.3 228.7 271.9 292.6 315.3 320.1 328.7 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 42.8 47.2 50.5 50.9 49.3 49.4 51.4 50.2 48.9 50.8 109 97 100 100 124 136 150 158 164 161 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.7 77.6 80.9 Annual rates Annual rates 1988: July Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May ' July" 410.7 408.1 411.5 411.1 415.4 425.0 328.1 329.2 329.8 331.4 332.8 336.3 196.8 197.6 198.3 200.8 202.0 202.5 137.0 137.0 138.0 139.8 141.9 143.3 81.4 80.6 79.7 79.1 78.8 80.6 49.9 51.0 51.9 51.5 51.9 53.2 82.5 78.9 81.7 79.7 82.6 88.8 160 162 157 164 158 163 954 905 880 841 839 942 424.8 418.5 419.2 415.8 419.3 415.6 415.7 339.5 335.0 340.4 335.4 334.1 333.7 334.7 204.7 202.3 204.5 204.0 201.0 198.6 198.2 145.6 145.3 143.2 142.0 138.3 136.4 135.9 82.5 81.1 84.2 79.4 80.1 81.7 82.4 52.2 51.6 51.8 52.0 53.1 53.5 54.2 85.3 83.4 78.7 80.4 85.1 81.9 80.9 155 148 150 163 159 157 163 160 943 850 856 836 905 938 933 803 Au£ " . 1 2 3 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 942 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, hy type of structure Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 unit 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1 620 5 1,488.1 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,459 1,463 1,332 1,567 1,577 1,076 1,039 1,136 1,138 1,141 2-4 units 5 or more units 122.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period 1 3 397 337 275 253 301 353 346 357 365 366 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 1,466 1,432 1,526 1,508 1,518 1,539 1,536 1,516 1,429 1,539 712 691 718 650 669 363 361 353 364 366 1,486 1,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,308 1,281 1,328 1,537 1,610 1,459 1,552 r 1,442 1,354 1,369 700 621 555 607 646 646 739 369 375 377 377 381 379 371 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) z 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 Seasonally adjusted annu al rates 1988- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar July r 1,678 1,465 1,409 1,343 1,308 1,406 1,424 1,353 1,199 1,029 981 1,029 977 972 1,029 1,003 59 62 63 68 65 66 62 50 62 42 55 57 58 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 324 362 333 361 371 413 374 378 252 289 379 338 292 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In July, manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.0 percent and inventories rose $5.1 billion. In August, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.7 percent, following a rise of 0.5 percent in July. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 800 240 .--- _ -^"~"' 700 1— - MANU FACTURING AND TRAC E INVENTOf IES - ^ - * * — ^^ __ - X"* — 140 - ^** /v r'-C" - '"\" M, VNUFACTUR NO 400 Ktl AIL INVENTC)RIES 160 _x~500 — -~is\ f 180 — ^ _^^T 200 ~~~^' \ 600 ^^"" — <^~s\ 220 120 At^JD TRADE SA LES * •"RETAIL SA ** — LbS f — - — 100 mulmii iiiiilmn Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 300 RATIO* 1.80 - — INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 1.40 200 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 imiliiin j 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1Minium 1 1985 1986 1987 i.ooluiuii Illllllllll Illllllllll 1989 1988 1986 1985 1987 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade 1 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Sales 2 Period 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 348,747 368,813 407,869 418,151 423,700 449,536 485,756 574,491 590,358 644,306 655,066 653,853 700,761 753,718 96,290 100,244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 128,196 130,334 142,380 146,745 152,447 162,648 178,313 486,289 492,173 492,478 498,846 501,400 506,186 729,786 737,562 744,054 743,544 746,756 753,718 133,850 134,726 135,332 138,087 137,239 136,170 174,466 176,368 176,972 177,408 177,060 178,313 511,881 507,328 507,555 517,745 518,088 515,695 510,341 759,803 763,051 765,504 771,340 778,093 780,802 785,874 140,356 139,547 139,991 142,290 142,474 141,959 140,881 179,761 179,810 179,681 181,226 182,615 182,548 182,573 Sales Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade * 61,093 64,754 68,985 72,434 74,802 79,077 83,384 134,468 147,377 167,159 180,825 185,224 206,981 221,242 61,469 68,984 79,257 88,608 90,477 106,271 114,994 72,999 78,393 87,902 92,217 94,747 100,710 106,248 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 83,306 84,103 84,324 85,117 85,599 85,035 211,532 215,396 219,297 216,724 218,093 221,242 107,487 110,146 114,303 111,689 112,904 114,994 104,045 105,250 104,994 105,035 105,189 106,248 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 86,225 86,357 86,630 87,512 88,404 88,484 r 88,832 88,521 222,584 224,185 224,693 226,656 230,423 231,762 232,503 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,093 118,835 119,542 119,708 106,880 108,016 108,700 109,563 111,588 112,220 112,795 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.54 Nondurable goods stores Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- July r Aug Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Slav June r July p . Aug" 1 2 3 r See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. 20 28,013 32,574 37,819 41,387 44,861 47,707 52,379 89,107 97,328 106,805 113,821 119,663 126,785 135,763 r 135,741 135,732 135,751 137,842 139,529 139,189 140,040 139,428 139,516 141,413 142,543 142,500 r 143,271 144,285 r 52,435 5 1,629 51,427 52,725 53,930 54,154 53,815 53,071 52,886 53,901 54,139 54,016 r 54,439 55,764 4 r Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 1.56 1.59 1.62 1.57 1.56 1.59 r 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.63 1.62 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In July, manufacturers' shipments and new orders fell while inventories and unfilled orders rose. In August, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders rose. BILLKDNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 •—^—*» r^—l < 200 ' ' 160 120 " l v TOTAL ^ \ TOTAL 1 DURABLE GOO DS 280, 160 •._!_*•• NONDURABLE GOODS 120 "~\~" 60 Illllllllll umiiim iiinlinii Illllllllll Illllllllll , -— -" r 1 N DURABLE GOODS 200! |"^~— - \\.. 80 BILLKDNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 480 440 — INVENTORIES 400 360 '" NC)NDURABLE GOODS 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 NFW i~>RPERS ^_e--~ 1 ^^ "--r \ | 160 120 1 A DURABLE GOODS 1 fs~-!i-"t"X'- _ - 80 RATIO * 2.20 TOTAL -.."--f-v ' *—**v- ^ - _x-. 1" INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 1.80 1.60 ~ r "~^1 ' r-~ S~^ 1.40 60 ||IIlllll|| Illllllllll Illllllllll 1985 1986 1987 Illllllllll 1988 Illllllllll 1.20 iniiliiiii Hitilinii tl 1 lltll III 1987 1988 1989 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 I| 1|11 1 1 | | 1 | | f 1985 1989 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Capital goods industries, nondefense 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 116,112 122,806 119,321 122,791 123,035 132,149 128,479 124,107 125,377 129,372 123,524 125,137 r 122,070 126,735 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 36,213 38,808 34,858 34,623 35,825 39,432 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,389 37,290 39,146 T 4 1,458 37,383 Total Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 103,765 104,203 103,348 104,304 105,118 106,737 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,535 110,229 110,020 108,528 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 446,536 451,830 453,103 457,281 460,802 468,860 473,450 476,403 481,366 487,231 487,913 491,834 496,243 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982.. .. 1983 1984.. 1985. 1986.. 1987 . 1988 1988: July Sept Oct. Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr June T July p Aug p 1 2 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 216,698 221,715 221,395 222,917 224,632 230,827 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,042 233,071 231,236 226,189 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 113,122 117,866 118,030 118,439 119,874 124,175 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,331 122,962 121,720 r l!7,183 128,358 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 103,576 103,849 103,365 104,478 104,758 106,652 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,711 110,109 109,516 109,006 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the sam End of period. 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 343,788 345,798 347,785 349,412 351,603 354,163 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,458 365,055 366,492 370,798 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 225,467 226,600 228,214 229,735 231,766 233,666 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,486 241,689 242,295 245,764 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 118,321 119,198 119,571 119,677 119,837 120,497 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,972 123,366 124,197 125,034 3 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 219,877 227,009 222,669 227,095 228,153 238,886 236,075 231,306 233,011 239,907 233,753 235,157 230,598 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.59 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.64 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In August, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.4 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.3 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.0 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1982=100 (RATIO SCALE) 120 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED £ FINISHED GOODS PRICES ~~ ,'-T— "::' .--->'N / =^5** 100 "~^f 90 ^-~~.- .y -*s l\w/\ '-\.-' «*£' V y .. 110 /\ * *-/ f S ,'>c*'~*3''"-"> -— £-5\A.- fc"" .^ /.->" ,--¥* *•• * , CAPITAL EQUIPMENT V ,.„. 110 INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 120 ONSUMER FOODS TOTAL_y _.-•— ' \ .-•S 100 CONSUMER C OODS EXCLUDING F OODS — 90 — — 80 80 imilmii 1981 iiiiiliiin Illlllllltl 1984 1983 1982 1985 Illllilllll Illllilllll 1986 1988 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR imilmii 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Period Finished goods excluding consumer foods Total finished goods Con- sumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr T. May June JuJy Aug 1 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 108.5 109.1 109.2 109.5 109.9 111.1 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.1 114.0 113.5 113.1 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 113.6 114.6 114.7 115.1 115.2 116.7 117.8 118.8 118.1 119.2 118.2 118.3 118.7 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.7 108.2 109.3 110.1 110.5 111.4 112.4 112.6 111.9 111.3 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Intermediate materials Durable Nondurable 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.5 103.7 103.8 104.1 104.7 114.5 115.1 115.0 115.0 115.4 97.6 97.6 97.8 98.3 98.9 106.0 107.1 107.5 109.0 110.2 110.1 109.1 108.0 116.3 116.9 117.0 116.3 117.2 117.4 117.1 117.5 100.4 101.6 102.2 104.4 105.8 105.6 104.3 102.6 Capital equipment 85.8 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 114.7 115.7 115.6 115.8 116.2 116.9 117.4 117.5 117.4 117.9 118.7 118.7 119.0 Total finished consumer goods Total Foods and feeds l Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.2 108.6 108.6 109.0 109.5 109.5 110.6 111.2 112.0 113.2 112.8 112.1 111.5 110.8 111.3 111.9 112.5 112.6 112.4 112.2 111.9 114.9 115.3 115.1 113.2 112.3 115.2 114.8 116.7 114.9 113.6 111.8 113.6 113.4 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 107.8 108.2 108.3 108.8 109.4 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.4 112.6 112.4 112.1 111.8 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 97.2 97.1 96.6 94.8 97.8 110.9 113.1 113.4 108.8 110.8 84.4 83.1 82.0 82.1 85.6 101.8 101.5 103.7 104.5 105.1 103.0 103.2 101.2 113.3 111.7 115.2 112.1 112.3 109.4 108.2 110.0 90.2 90.7 92.1 95.1 96.0 94.5 95.4 91.3 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In August, the consumer price index for all urban consumers was unchanged, seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.2 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 - CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS - 110 110 \ 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 111 60 1981 1983 1982 1985 1984 1987 1986 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 60 1989 1988 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items * Transportation Housing Medical care Ener- gy 2 All items less food, shelter, and energy 3.1 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 6.0 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 7.3 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 48.7 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 Shelter Period Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted Rel. imp.3.... 100.0 824 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986.. .. 1987 1988 1988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb. Mar Apr . . June July Aue: 90.9 96.5 99.6 103 9 107.6 1096 113.6 118.3 (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Rent- Food ers' Total ' Total costs Maintenance and repairs (NSA) 16.2 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 42.3 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 27.8 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 7.9 19.7 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel 7.6 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 6.4 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 17.2 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 4.3 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 119.0 119.5 120.0 120.3 120.7 119.5 120.3 120.6 120.8 121.2 118.9 119.3 119.6 120.1 120.6 127.6 128.1 128.3 128.9 129.4 133.8 133.8 134.1 134.2 134.9 131.9 132.5 132.7 133.5 133.9 115.0 115.3 115.0 115.4 115.8 104.0 104.4 105.1 105.5 106.3 113.9 116.0 117.4 117.4 117.7 109.6 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.4 117.0 117.7 117.8 117.9 118.1 82.8 82.0 81.3 81.1 79.7 140.0 140.7 141.6 142.2 142.9 89.5 89.3 89.2 89.5 89.2 122.4 123.0 123.8 124.2 124.6 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 124.0 124.2 124.5 124.5 122.1 122.6 123.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 125.7 125.9 120.9 121.3 121.7 121.8 122.3 122.6 123.3 123.5 129.7 130.3 131.1 131.2 131.8 132.3 133.2 133.5 135.2 136.4 138.2 137.3 137.3 138.1 140.2 139.6 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.5 136.9 137.5 138.1 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 118.3 118.4 118.5 106.9 106.7 106.9 107.4 107.6 107.1 107.6 107.5 117.7 117.5 119.1 119.4 120.4 119.1 118.1 116.3 111.2 111.9 112.6 115.0 116.1 115.9 115.2 114.3 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.3 118.8 118.5 80.5 81.8 83.6 93.0 96.6 95.4 93.3 89.5 144.0 145.2 145.9 146.6 147.6 148.7 149.8 150.8 89.9 90.4 91.4 96.1 97.6 96.6 95.9 94.0 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.7 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—-and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1988. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for bom and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. wnership costs 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 , 14.1 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 -.2 5.7 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 Change, month to month 1988- Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec . ... 1989- Jan Feb Mar May r July ' 0.3 .6 .1 .3 .4 0.6 .9 .1 .3 .1 0.2 .2 .1 .3 .6 0.3 .9 -.1 .2 .3 4.2 5.7 3.7 3.7 3.0 8.9 9.2 6.5 5.4 2.1 2.4 4.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 3.6 6.1 4.6 3.9 1.7 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.3 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.1 5.6 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 2.8 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.0 1.1 .9 .4 .4 .9 -.1 4 1.3 .9 .8 -.6 .9 % .1 .3 1.2 1.0 .4 1.4 1.1 i 9 -1.0 .6 .4 .1 7.1 9.8 10.2 7.4 7.3 5.1 1.4 -3.5 7.2 9.7 13.1 4.9 4.8 20 .7 -1.7 8.8 12.0 11.1 11.8 12.1 10.0 .4 -7.7 4.6 5.6 4.6 1.7 1.7 4.1 4.5 3.8 5.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 8.6 7.6 4.4 1.8 6.8 7.5 7.5 6.0 7.3 5.3 2.8 1.5 5.3 7.1 7.5 10.3 12.1 10.6 5.9 1.7 4.6 4.8 3.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 3.1 2.7 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.0 4.2 -.4 1 .4 .7 0 .3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total ' Total ' Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New cars Total i Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food, shelter, and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 8 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 12.5 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 10.2 4.3 31 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 13.7 10.2 36 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 15.0 9.9 24 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 0.3 .4 .4 .3 .3 0.5 .7 .2 .2 .3 0.3 .3 .3 .4 .4 0.5 .4 .2 .5 .4 0.3 0 .2 .1 .5 0.5 .5 .2 .6 .3 .2 .5 .6 .1 .5 .4 .7 .2 2 .9 1.3 -.7 0 .6 1.5 -.4 .2 .4 .3 .4 .7 .3 .4 .4 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 7.4 18.8 6.8 9.4 1.5 -6.5 3.4 — 1.7 2.5 -2.4 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 1.8 18.7 2.1 -2.1 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 18.0 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 33 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.7 Change, month to month 1988: 1989: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug .6 .4 .5 .7 .6 2 .2 0 .7 .4 .8 .5 .6 .2 .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .4 .2 .6 2 -1.6 1.8 1.2 0 .3 0.8 .1 .4 .3 0 0.3 .6 .1 .1 .2 1.8 -1.0 -.9 — .2 -1.7 0.4 .5 .6 .4 .5 0.7 -.2 -.1 .3 -.3 0.2 .5 .7 .3 .3 .6 0 __ 2 -.2 .2 1.4 .5 .3 .2 .8 -.5 — 1.1 .5 -.8 -.1 -1.5 .7 .6 .6 2.1 1.0 -.2 -.6 -.8 .7 .3 .3 .1 -.2 -.3 -.4 -.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 11.2 3.9 -1.2 -2.2 -4.1 .8 .8 .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 .6 J.I 5.1 1.6 -1.0 7 -2.0 .6 .3 .4 .2 .5 2 .2 .1 0 .4 .7 .4 .8 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 24 3 4.5 4.4 5.4 6.4" Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.1 5.7 4.0 1.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.7 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in September were 0.7 percent below their August level. Prices paid by farmers in July were 0.6 percent above their April level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 160 160 T PRICES PAID 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 ' 100 80 80 60, RATIO^ 140 m Illll mnliim - 120 100 - 80 - 140 120 - x^,- HiHlHffl 1981 Illllllllll 1982 Illllllllll 1983 •_ KAIIO . 1 ->_ - 60 60 —__ ~ "~~'~~'~1--N 1 ^ Illllllllll iiiiiiiini Illllllllll llllllllUI inniinii iiiiiiiini 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 100 80 60 1989 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989' Jan Peb Mar Apr May July Sept 1 All farm products Livestock and products Crops 139 133 135 142 128 123 126 138 144 143 144 145 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 135 133 136 136 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 153 152 151 154 149 148 149 147 149 147 146 144 143 140 138 136 140 141 138 134 126 127 158 158 161 154 156 157 r !57 161 158 Includes items not shown separately. z Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. All commodities, services, interest, taxes,1 and wage rates Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 150 159 161 164 162 159 161 170 (3) 173 (3) (3) 175 (3) (3) 177 (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) 151 158 159 161 156 150 151 160 (3) 163 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) Production items 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 157 (3) 162 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) Ratio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 79 81 84 83 83 84 85 85 85 83 84 83 82 81 80 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexe; have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml and the broader aggregates slowed in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,400 4,000 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 3,600 M3 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 M2 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 600 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l 400 1982 1985 400 1989 1987 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml M2 MS Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 790.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 3,069.5 1,991.1 1,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.6 3,915.4 2,327.8 2,599.4 2353.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 4,137.1 4,340.2 4,676.1 1988: Aug ' Sepf Oct Nov Dec 782.4 783.7 785.4 786.6 790.3 3,029.7 3,035.0 3,042.3 3,059.4 3,069.5 3,851.5 3,861.0 3,877.9 3,898.1 3,915.4 1989- Jan Feb Mar 786.3 787.4 786.3 783.1 773.3 770.3 777.2 777.7 3,065.8 3,069.4 3,078.4 3,080.6 3,072.1 3,088.0 3,117.5 3,136.3 3,920.2 3,929.5 3,950.8 3,958.6 3,954.6 3,973.5 4,003.2 4,009.4 Period 19801981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 19871988: Dec Dec Dec .. Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ' May .... July 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 L Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) 1 r Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml M2 M3 Debt r 3,881.9 4,269.0 r 4,660.0 '5,185.4 r 5,932.7 r 6,741.5 r 7,597.0 r 8,316.1 9,081.1 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 5.1 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 5.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 6.5 '9.2 ll,3 14.4 r !3.6 r !2.7 r 9.5 9.2 4,583.9 4,592.2 4,613.3 4,639.4 4,676.1 8,819.5 8,882.2 8,942.9 9,017.7 9,081.1 6.0 5.3 3.7 4.1 3.6 5.4 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.8 6.5 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.2 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.2 4,679.8 4,692.0 4,726.2 4,744.1 4,743.0 4,746.7 4,777.1 9,137.8 9,206.1 9,267.8 9,323.7 9,380.8 9,431.6 9,479.3 1.0 1.3 .7 -.6 -3.4 -5.0 -2.3 -2.4 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.5 .8 1.2 3.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.2 2.9 3.0 4.3 4.1 8.9 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.9 7.6 r er at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. r 9.5 io.o r COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Money market mutual fund balances Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA NSA Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) NSA Small denomination time deposits ' Savings deposits Large denomination time deposits * Term repurchase agreements (RFs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985- Dec 1986: Dec 1987- Dec 1988: Dec 115.2 261.5 122.5 231.5 132.6 234.2 146.3 238.7 156.1 244.2 167.8 267.3 180.5 303.2 196.4 288.3 211.8 288.6 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 282.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.3 78.3 r 78.5 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 221.1 239.4 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.5 84.4 89.6 87.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 416.9 513.5 572.5 526.3 502.7 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 431.3 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 1,025.2 260.1 302.5 326.8 327.4 417.2 436.6 439.0 487.4 537.8 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.6 84.0 109.1 T 124.1 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 105.8 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 109.1 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 275.2 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 40.6 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.7 207.4 231.0 260.3 335.8 1988: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 207.0 208.6 209.7 210.5 211.8 289.9 288.8 288.9 287.7 288.6 278.3 279.0 279.4 281.0 282.3 79.9 77.3 '76.1 '75.7 '78.5 230.8 231.0 231.3 237.4 239.4 84.0 83.7 84.6 87.4 87.6 517.7 511.4 507.5 506.7 502.7 430.9 430.5 429.2 431.8 431.3 988.3 998.7 1,009.7 1,017.8 1,025.2 519.4 526.7 532.0 534.4 537.8 ' 124.1 '122.8 ' 125.4 T 128.4 ' 124.1 102.8 102.8 100.2 101.6 105.8 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.7 109.1 272.6 272.8 273.3 268.4 275.2 41.2 41.7 41.3 40.5 40.6 311.3 308.8 312.3 323.7 335.8 1989: Jan Feb Mar . 213.4 214.3 215.6 215.9 216.4 217.4 218.0 218.4 284.0 284.8 284.3 281.4 278.2 275.0 278.9 277.6 281.3 280.9 279.1 278.5 271.3 270.7 273.2 274.5 r 241.7 247.2 255.5 259.1 258.9 265.1 274.6 285.5 89.3 89.6 87.6 87.7 91.6 95.1 98.2 100.6 495.2 485.3 480.3 471.3 457.0 456.9 459.8 465.4 427.8 424.6 420.8 412.8 404.7 402.0 401.5 402.3 1,035.7 1,048.3 1,061.0 1,083.1 1,105.8 1,118.5 1,126.4 1,131.7 109.7 274.4 110.6 267.8 273.5 111.5 112.3 r 277.6 112.9 ' 280.8 113.8 r 267.7 114.6 265.9 40.6 39.9 41.2 '41.4 41.1 41.2 42.1 334.9 344.2 349.2 354.2 353.5 350.5 351.4 May. . July ' Aug" 81.8 79.0 r 77.4 r 74.5 '73.5 r 76.0 77.4 74.7 r 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE. —Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock hut are not shown r 544.4 '551.6 r 558.8 r 567.7 '572.1 r 573.0 573.0 568.7 r 125.3 r 100.7 '128.5 r 100.0 r !31.0 ' 105.5 r !28.8 r!01.3 '129.3 ' 100.5 ' 129.3 r 99.3 125.1 99.8 97.2 119.6 here. Source: Roard of (>overilors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: Dec Dec Dec Dec Nonborrowcd Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,134 47,175 57,313 57,916 58,990 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,739 47,674 57,616 58,399 60,234 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,468 47,436 56,771 57,665 59,666 152,525 161,043 173,011 188,303 201,889 219,510 241,448 257,991 275,501 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 1984: Dec .. 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: Dee Dec .... Dec Dec 33,401 35,315 37,388 39,184 42,321 48,493 58,140 58,693 60,706 1988: Aug Sept... Oct Nov Dec 60,903 60,824 60,862 60,853 60,706 57,663 57,985 58,562 57,991 58,990 60,316 60,043 60,343 60,314 60,234 59,950 59,852 59,800 59,733 59,666 270,979 272,420 273,659 274,380 275,501 3,241 2,839 2,299 2,861 1,716 423 421 332 186 130 2,653 2,059 1,781 2,322 1,244 1989: Jan. Feb Mar. Apr May.... June July ' AugP 60,370 60,260 59,854 59,463 58,740 58 350 58,698 58,760 58,708 58,773 58,041 57,174 57,019 56,860 58,004 58,085 59,754 59,822 59,376 58,880 58,217 57,776 58,110 58,126 59,226 59,106 58,896 58,686 57,709 57,445 57,733 57,870 276,784 277,553 278,615 278,675 278,329 279,056 279,983 280,294 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 1,490 694 675 76 97 139 213 345 431 497 490 1,046 1,050 1,334 1,707 1,197 917 106 41 .. .. . . Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in August; commercial and industrial loans also rose 0.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,400 _ 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES X. 200 200 T 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES • him 120 1981 1983 1982 1984 1986 1985 I l l l l l l l l 1120 1987 1989 1988 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted M All commercial banks Loans and leases Period U.S. Government securities Total securities 2 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug"... 1,307.7 1,401.5 1,553.6 1,723.7 1,911.4 2,094.5 2,239.6 2,417.2 2,377.6 2,381.5 2,401.4 2,410.2 2,417.2 2,422.8 2,451.9 2,464.9 2,470.9 2,486.3 2,496.8 2,518.1 2,534.4 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 309.6 335.5 361.4 350.9 353.1 355.6 358.8 361.4 360.4 361.8 368.8 370.7 373.5 373.8 374.4 376.6 Other securities 160.9 165.7 170.6 142.6 181.4 196.5 195.3 194.0 196.5 195.2 196.8 195.9 194.0 189.6 190.4 189.7 187.2 186.4 185.8 184.6 182.8 Total 2 967.5 1,034.1 1,123.9 1,321.0 1,459.3 1,588.4 1,708.8 1,861.9 1,830.1 1,833.2 1,848.9 1,855.6 1,861.9 1,872.9 1,899.7 1,906.5 1,913.1 1,926.5 1,937.3 1,959.1 1,974.9 Commercial and industri- 355.4 392.6 414.1 472.9 State Non- Heal estate 284.1 299.8 330.8 376.3 499.7 425.8 536.2 494.0 562.7 589.0 601.9 672.0 597.4 643.0 598.1 650.3 601.6 659.8 601.8 665.3 601.9 672.0 606.6 678.9 619.0 685.6 617.8 691.8 620.6 699.5 626.3 705.5 624.9 712.0 r 632.1 r719.9 637.3 729.0 Individual 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.8 315.9 329.5 355.5 347.7 350.2 351.6 353.0 355.5 357.9 358.9 360.6 362.9 365.4 366.0 367.0 369.3 Agricultural political subdivisions 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 35.0 31.6 31.9 29.4 30.0 30.7 29.6 31.1 29.6 30.7 30.4 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.0 30.3 30.7 30.6 30.7 29.7 30.7 29.2 30.4 29.0 30.3 30.6 . 30.3 30.4 31.7 32.0 30.3 0.0 .0 3.3 46.0 56.7 Security financial institutions 21.5 25.4 28,1 34.3 42.7 40.1 34.4 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 38.5 39.6 36.5 38.5 38.2 38.5 37.7 44.7 43.6 40.0 38.0 41.1 40.3 39.6 58.4 52,5 46.8 48.2 48.0 48,5 47.7 46.8 44.4 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.6 r 44.4 r 44.2 43.9 Foreign banks 18.1 14.8 13.4 11.1 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.2 7.6 8.1 7.6 7.8 8.5 8.2 8.3 9.4 9.3 8.9 9.3 1 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables 7.2 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 22.3 24.5 5.9 9.4 7.9 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 29.2 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 r 30.3 30.3 Other 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 36.3 39.4 42.1 44.8 52.2 49.1 47.5 47.0 44.8 44.4 42.7 45.2 42.9 43.1 r 43.9 49.7 49.6 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal l Total 1979 r 1980 r 1981 r 1982 r 1983 ' 1984 r 1985 r 1986 T 1987 r 1988 r 1988: lrr n r ... m. IV. 1989: I rp n Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages Total Total Other 2 Discrepancy (sources less uses) Increase in financial assets Capital Credit market funds tures 3 -3.0 59.0 38.1 7.7 51.3 40.2 66.4 52.0 33.7 104.2 53.9 64.0 30.9 69.3 65.8 52.5 46.0 10.4 55.2 63.7 54.1 42.8 64.6 58.9 368.4 341.6 382.9 302.7 392.0 473.0 422.9 448.1 453.9 473.3 238.6 243.2 285.9 255.7 269.9 367.9 339.9 328.8 348.3 380.4 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 122.1 105.1 83.0 119.3 105.6 92.9 -44.6 -18.3 -5.6 .3 27.2 22.0 34.4 62.6 32.4 35.0 95.5 109.4 82.0 21.0 38.2 28.1 38.7 -74.3 57.3 81.3 43.3 95.3 43.0 31.8 74.2 86.2 470.9 474.0 500.9 447.7 359.2 380.7 390.1 391.8 111.7 93.3 110.8 55.9 36.7 34.3 27.8 41.1 31.8 115.5 -52.2 20.5 84.0 95.0 91.4 28.0 445.6 473.2 376.0 388.8 69.6 84.4 39.5 39.3 323.7 323.2 377.4 303.0 419.2 495.0 457.3 510.7 486.2 508.4 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 344.9 352.6 372.6 126.1 123.1 137.9 60.7 133.5 158.7 105.0 165.8 133.6 135.8 60.3 70.7 91.8 50.3 78.3 95.1 50.9 123.0 69.0 77.0 507.7 508.3 528.6 488.8 369.1 367.2 372.4 381.6 138.6 141.1 156.2 107.2 485.0 512.5 361.9 369.0 123.1 143.5 9.0 30.5 25.4 17 44.6 91 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained broad. 3 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period 1980: 19811982: 19831984: 1985: 1986: 19871988: 1988- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec Dec Dec July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec NEW SERIES: 1989: Jan Feb Mar May July" Other Automobile Mobile home Other Revolving 297,566 310,682 323,536 367,868 442,538 517,755 572,047 607,721 659,507 639,207 644,666 646,556 649,132 654,413 659,507 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 277,659 279,585 279,243 278,902 279,926 281,174 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 165,343 167,125 168,273 170,131 173,030 174,792 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 26,213 26,277 26,185 26,033 26,005 25,744 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 169,993 171,679 172,855 174,066 175,452 177,798 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 1,371 5,459 1,890 2,576 5,281 5,094 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 -399 1,926 -342 -341 1,024 1,248 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 935 1,782 1,148 1,858 2,899 1,762 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 -643 39 64 -92 152 -28 261 -329 1 529 -344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1,095 1,108 16,323 797 1,686 1,176 1,211 1,386 2,346 682,020 687,397 691,162 693,911 698,132 700,849 700,569 286,382 288,767 288,850 289,654 290,741 290,192 288,730 176,716 178,570 182,831 184,500 186,502 189,622 190,890 26,036 25,992 24,168 23,993 23,952 23,685 23,626 192,886 194,068 195,314 195,763 196,936 197,349 197,324 (2) 5,377 3,765 2,749 4,221 2,717 -280 (2) 2,385 82 804 1,087 549 -1,463 <2) 1,854 4,261 1,670 2,002 3,120 1,268 (2) (2) 1,182 1,246 449 1,173 413 -26 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Because of break in series, net change not available. Mobile home Automobile Total Total 539 Revolving ,^,£ -1,824 -174 41 -267 -60 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in September. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM :ONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 .. 1986 1987... 1988 3-month bills (new issues) l 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 Constant maturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) " Prime commercial paper, 6 months l Discount rate (N.Y. P.R. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 9.32 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 1988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 7.23 7.34 7.68 8.09 8.57 8.43 8.72 9.11 8.98 8.80 8.96 9.11 7.71 7.54 7.58 7.66 9.82 9.51 9.45 9.57 8.23 8.24 8.55 8.97 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 9.26 9.10 9.43 9.39 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 8.29 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 7.92 7.91 7.72 9.20 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.37 7.83 8.13 8.26 9.09 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.28 8.02 8.11 8.19 7.41 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 6.97 7.08 7.27 9.62 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.10 8.93 8.96 9.00 9.02 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.80 8.35 8.32 8.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 10.50-10.50 10.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10 50 10 50 9.52 9.82 9.99 10.17 10.18 10.42 10.48 10.23 7.94 7.88 7.64 7.64 7.72 8.37 8.29 8.11 8.19 8.42 8.25 8.17 8.13 8.15 8.31 7.20 7.17 7.19 7.33 7.38 9.05 9.02 8.98 8.98 9.03 8.51 8.52 8.45 8.45 8.58 7.00-7.00 7 00 7 00 7.00-7.00 7 00 7 00 7.00-7.00 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 July Aug r Sept " Week ended: 1989: Sept 2 9 16 23 30 " 1 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weeklv data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 30 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in September. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOS CALE) INDE)(, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 (-OMPOSPTF STOCK PRICE NPE* (NYSE) 180 160 N r ~ 140 120 160 H( \ /""^ ^^ ' 140 120 100 ^-^r~' 80 40 -/" s^^S 100 60 f- 240 220 200 180 / ^^ 1 80 60 ^J . M i l l . nil 1 1 I i i 1 1 1 I I i .. .,,!,,,,, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1983 1982 1981 ! 1 1 II I 1 1 1 1 t1 1 g 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 1 1 | | | 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 . 1 . 1 , 1 . 1 , 1985 1984 1986 1987 1988 40 1989 PERC:ENT PERC ENT 20 20 15 15 NGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS -~"^~H i i* 10 5 0 (S&P1 \ "^r 10 __ —- \ f 5 J 1 1982 1981 1 1 1 I 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 I 1985 1 ! 1986 1 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1988 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION New York Stock Exchange indexes (Elee. 31, 1965 — 5*O ) Composite Industrial Transportation Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 267.97 277.40 271.02 276.51 3.69 3.61 3.70 3.68 8.36 132.26 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.60 154.08 157.78 164.86 165.51 2,234.68 2,304.30 2,283.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,494.90 2,554.03 2,691.11 2,693.41 285.41 294.01 292.71 302.25 313.93 323.73 331.93 346.61 347.33 3.64 3.59 3.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.38 3.28 3.29 164.11 165.58 165.63 165.24 164.93 166.10 2,688.62 2,737.50 2,720.22 2,686.13 2,684.12 2,676.78 345.72 351.55 349.73 346.01 346.50 346.28 3.30 3.25 3.26 3.30 3.28 3.30 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 1988: 151.47 156.36 152.67 155.35 182.18 188.58 183.79 187.75 136.27 141.93 138.60 144.07 71.83 74.19 73.83 74.81 133.15 134.66 129.61 128.83 160.40 165.08 164.60 169.38 175.30 180.76 185.15 192.93 193.02 194.62 200.00 199.20 204.81 211.51 216.75 221.74 231.32 230.86 153.09 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.88 173.47 179.32 197.52 202.01 75.87 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.95 90.40 92.90 93.44 192.40 195.29 194.44 192.40 192.45 192.42 230.84 234.64 233.53 230.31 229.72 229.41 199.16 209.64 206.88 201.70 200.31 198.29 92.33 93.13 92.64 92.64 94.10 94.15 1 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings3 Earningsprice ratio 2,080.06 2,144.31 2,099.04 2,148.58 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 2 Dividendprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 Sept p Week ended: 1989: Aug 26 Sept 2 9 16 23 30" Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10) 4 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 Dec 0 1989 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 1989' Jan Feb Mar Apr 1 Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 . . 1987 1988 . . Sept Got 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices l Period 1 1 8.56 8.46 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 11 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $145.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $165.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!/ 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 OUTLAYS.!/ 900 900 800 800 RECEIPTS.!/ 700 700 600 600 N SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (->!/ 0 -100 -100 ^^^ \ -200 A 1^1981 \ _- i 1982 i 1983 1984 — ' i 1985 1986 ^-^ i I 1987 i 1988 I 1989 . -200 IS 1990^ FISCAL YEARS v INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVtSERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.7 14 7 -53.6 59 2 -40.2 73 8 -78.9 127 9 -207.8 185 3 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (estimates) 1 1990 (estimates) 1 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 995.9 1,080.1 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,144.1 1,179.4 -212.3 221 2 -149.7 155 1 -148.3 99 2 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 731.1 793.3 811.2 892.4 976.5 1,038.3 165 3 -145.9 591.9 652.2 Cumulative total, first 11 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 18, 1989. Data for 1990 include asset sales. 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for August 1989, issued September 1989. 32 Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Total Held by the public -3.9 43 -2.0 11 -5.0 79 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 211.0 222.3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 53.8 64.5 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,853.5 3,084.8 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,177.8 2,279.2 185.2 192.5 34.1 47.7 2,573.4 2,844.7 2,036.5 2,181.8 -72.7 73 9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 933.2 957.1 -221.6 -237.9 -169.3 -193.9 -202.1 -163.8 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 264.7 286.8 791.3 845.8 - 199.4 -193.6 219.3 240.1 -70.5 13 3 49 7 -54.9 38 2 Surplus or deficit (-) -3.2 14 NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 11 months of fiscal 1989, billion higher. receipts were $81.2 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $61.8 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS!/ 400 . INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES, 400 300 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION_ INCOME TAXES 200 OTHER RECEIPTS 100 100 0 0 900 900 OUTLAYS-!/ 800 -NONDEFENSE 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 . NATIONAL DEFENSE_ 300 300 200 200 1981 1982 1985 1984 1983 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET HEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts National defense Social Fiscal year 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 . 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (estimates) ' 1990 (estimates)1.. Cumulative total, first 1 1 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 1 2 Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 298.1 355.6 399.6 463 3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 995.9 1,080.1 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.3 484.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 105.8 117.0 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 361.5 387.5 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 83.3 91.0 811.2 892.4 359.4 400.7 73.5 83.2 305.6 330.2 72.6 78.4 Total ancc taxes Income securi- Social securi- inter- ty ty est 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 86.2 97.1 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.6 145.4 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.4 249.1 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.1 176.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.3 142.4 71.8 77.6 118.9 124.6 200.8 213.0 139.3 155.6 125.3 139.0 Department of Defense, military International affairs Health 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,144.1 1,179.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 301.2 296.3 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 292.7 286.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 10.7 16.4 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 49.6 56.4 976.5 1,038.3 268.4 274.9 260.9 267.1 11.2 8.7 40.7 44.8 Total contributions See footnote 1, page 32. Data from Monthly Treasury Stater :nt for August 1989, issued September 1989. Other and Total Medicare Net Other NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $17.0 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $14.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES EXPENDITURES s 1,000 1,000 -V. 800 800 RECEIPTS 600 600 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -200 -200 1 1981 1982 1984 1983 1987 1986 1985 1988 1 1 1989 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal Government expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 776.8 815.2 897.3 958.6 340.4 357.0 401.2 408.0 74.6 81.1 97.7 108.3 55.9 50.9 53.4 55.8 305.8 326.1 345.0 386.4 962.3 1,028.0 1,060.4 1,104.0 341.5 368.6 375.5 378.6 374.0 394.6 411.2 432.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.6 128.3 134.6 138.8 149.0 20.7 22.8 31.9 35.1 -0.1 .0 .1 I -185.5 -212.8 -163.1 -145.4 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 788.7 827.9 911.4 972.4 346.4 361.4 405.8 413.0 76.3 83.8 101.0 111.4 55.1 50.5 53.8 56.7 310.9 332.1 350.8 391.3 985.6 1,034.8 1,072.8 1,118.3 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 380.1 399.9 414.3 438.2 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.4 130.1 135.6 141.7 151.4 20.3 26.0 32.6 36.0 2 .0 .0 .0 -196.9 -206.9 -161.4 -145.8 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 88.9 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.9 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.8 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 -212.2 -189.0 921.5 937.4 408.1 420.0 107.4 103.1 53.8 54.5 352.2 359.7 1,065.5 1,101.7 384.5 388.1 414.3 421.9 101.7 102.2 142.5 147.3 22.7 41.9 .2 2 -143.9 — 164.4 944.7 973.2 977.3 994.6 402.7 417.5 411.4 420.3 104.2 111.6 114.0 115.8 55.9 55.9 57.4 57.8 382.0 388.2 394.5 400.6 1,096.5 1,114.7 1,099.8 1,162.1 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 433.0 434.4 438.0 447.6 110.1 112.2 111.0 112.2 144.9 149.9 153.9 157.0 34.4 41.2 29.4 38.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 -151.8 -141.5 -122.5 -167.6 1,036.2 1,053.2 446.8 465.1 117.0 109.7 58.0 58.2 414.3 420.2 1,183.7 1,198.6 399.0 406.0 460.4 466.9 118.7 118.4 167.0 172.0 38.5 35.3 .0 .0 -147.5 -145.4 19821983: 19841985: 1986- IV.. IV IV IV IV 1987: UJ.. IV 1988- I rr.... TTT IV.. 1989: I r n . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100) Industrial production (1977=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 . 1986 1987 1988 1988- July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb . Mar July r . Aug *.... . 1 United Kingdom 76.1 85.6 94.9 100.4 r 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 90.9 95.4 98.0 99.9 102.1 104.2 104.9 105.0 105.7 119.0 119.0 119.6 119.0 119.6 118.8 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 129.3 120.5 123.7 124.1 124.2 124.8 125.1 125.1 105.3 105.6 106.4 106.9 106.5 106.2 124.7 125.0 125.3 125.6 125.8 126.0 106.3 106.3 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 140.9 141.5 142.2 143.3 144.5 145.0 125.4 126.8 127.4 128.7 129.2 129.6 118.1 117.6 117.8 117.8 116.4 116.5 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.7 126.6 127.2 127.6 128.9 129.6 130.4 130.5 106.0 105.7 106.2 108.1 108.7 108.6 108.4 126.5 126.8 127.2 128.0 128.5 128.7 129.0 108.1 108.4 108.6 109.2 109.5 109.6 109.5 146.1 147.3 148.0 149.0 149.6 150.3 150.7 150.9 130.4 131.4 131.9 134.3 135.1 135.6 135.7 136.1 Germany 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 104.8 106.9 96.5 102.7 115.2 r !21.6 r !21.5 r 128.3 ' 136.3 119.0 120.3 120.7 124.5 136.1 141.0 140.8 145.7 159.1 107.2 106.1 105.0 105.0 106.1 106.1 107.2 109.4 114.3 108.0 105.9 102.7 103.3 106.2 111.0 113.0 113.7 118.1 114.8 113.0 109.5 105.9 109.5 110.7 114.7 119.3 126.4 99.8 96.7 98.5 102.2 102.4 107.9 110.2 114.1 118.2 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 137.4 138.7 138.8 137.8 137.1 137.9 156.4 160.8 161.6 160.2 165.0 166.1 116.0 116.0 117.2 113.2 118.0 117.3 116.1 121.3 120.0 119.4 119.1 121.2 128.5 126.0 124.1 127.6 129.1 132.2 136.7 137.4 ' 137.0 '137.7 ' 137.9 137.9 167.3 164.5 172.5 166.3 167.3 r 170.7 167.1 118.2 117.4 116.6 120.7 r l!8.1 119.9 121.2 120.5 121.3 124.3 118.6 ' 123.6 126.9 127.9 130.3 126.9 127.0 r Italy 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 France r Germany Japan Japan Italy United States ' Canada Canada 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 ' 141.9 142.0 1424 May United Kingdom r France 72.2 81.8 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.3 r 63.2 86.7 92.2 75.4 97.1 87.7 100.3 100.8 102.7 111.5 104.9 '121.1 '104.7 128.5 105.0 134.4 106.2 141.1 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 '111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). Data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted} General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) 1 Principal end-use commodity category 1982 1983 1988- July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May June' July 1 2 79 89 87 82 91 9.1 66 72 76 77 37 9 382 39 5 39.0 405 39 3 38.3 22 20 21 20 22 20 1.9 10 7 100 11 0 11.3 11 7 11 4 11.1 90 93 93 91 99 95 9.0 35 34 36 44 40 3.6 94 93 99 10.1 98 106 10.9 24 24 25 24 23 23 2.2 24 47 42 42 4.4 4.6 40 3.6 Capital goods except automotive 25 27 2.8 26 29 2.7 Other 2 20.7 20.5 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. Includes undocumented exports to Canada. arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical 3 Total 4 97 102 93 99 98 10.2 20 20 21 20 20 2.3 29 29 32 31 32 32 2.9 71 75 76 80 79 83 8.4 19 22 20 21 21 2.2 21 28 25 25 25 2.7 29 0 28 8 30 1 308 305 31 3 30.7 27 5 35 1 37 6 368 37 1 38 1 39.7 92 93 94 94 94 10.1 28.9 26 6 27 5 27 6 27 9 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 325.7 345.3 365.4 406.2 441.0 71 71 72 68 70 7.4 227.2 254.1 322.4 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 28 29 29 27 26 2.8 224.0 4 218.8 4 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 61.7 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 116.4 205.6 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 15.7 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 Total Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Industrial supplies and 2 Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Foods, feeds, and bever- Period Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category Total 244.0 258.0 Foods feeds, and hever- 17.1 18.2 21.0 Industrial plies and 112.0 Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other 39.7 6.5 6.3 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) Exports (t.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) 254.9 269.9 346.4 -38.4 -64.2 -122.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 -27.5 -52.4 -101.7 -126.5 -138.3 -152.1 -118.5 — 85 -10.1 — 92 — 9.2 -10.5 -10.8 -9.9 -11.7 — 10.6 -10.7 -12.1 -12.5 — 8.9 — 9.4 — 9.5 -8.3 — 10.1 -8.0 -7.6 -10.5 -10.9 -11.2 -9.9 -11.7 -9.6 -9.3 11 11 11 1.1 8.0 79 81 80 8.1 83 9.0 1.2 36 5 39.2 38 2 38.6 39.6 41.3 74 76 77 73 72 67 6.7 77 8.3 83 8.3 8.5 85 8.6 9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 11 1.0 39.5 39.7 41.2 40.7 42.2 40.9 40.0 75 12 month basis. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. -133.6 -155.1 -170.3 -137.1 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter of 1989, the current account deficit rose to $31.0 billion, from $30.4 billion in the first quarter. The merchandise trade deficit fell to $27.7 billion, from $28.4 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 10 -40 -45 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)] Merchandise 1 2 Investment income 3 Payments Net Net military transactions 42 119 52 329 54 884 52 376 67 419 62 901 66 968 82 420 105 548 -17,357 -17,533 -15,729 -16,350 19 755 -20,554 -21,904 -20,207 -23,955 -25,613 -27,310 -28,670 -29,246 -31,947 30 387 34 083 28 664 24 875 18 489 25 931 21 647 22 283 2 227 6,613 4,545 6,015 4,472 5 362 2,190 1,674 13,058 2,795 -2,465 -2,590 4,489 -2,416 -5,015 2 577 1 523 474 040 2 099 3 557 4 576 2 857 4 606 -1,411 -1,298 -1,089 -777 176 — 210 -1,031 -1,440 -964 — 1,033 -1,006 -1,604 -1,498 -1,630 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: I II Ill IV 1987- I II Ill IV 1988: I n in IV 1989: I r II " 1 2 3 Exports Imports 224 269 237 085 211 198 201 820 219 900 215935 223 367 250 266 319 251 53,899 56,796 56,182 56,490 57 255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 78,471 80,604 83,729 87,919 90,866 249 749 265 063 247 642 268 900 332 422 338 083 368 425 409 766 446 466 -89,549 -90,812 -92,983 -95,081 95 916 -99,834 - 104,903 -109,113 - 109,893 - 109,882 -110,943 -115,748 -116,297 -118,584 Net balance Receipts 25 480 72 506 27 978 86 412 36 444 83 548 67 080 77 251 112 522 85 908 122 148 88 832 145 058 88 615 159 500 104 703 127 215 107 775 -35,650 23,970 -34,016 22,078 -36,801 21,744 -38,591 20,822 38661 25 117 -39,819 22J744 -40,606 23,578 -40,414 33,265 -33,446 26,750 -31,411 23,148 -30,339 24,720 -32,019 33,159 -28,378 26,830 -27,718 26,932 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net travel and transportation receipts 997 144 992 4 227 7 885 9 832 8 031 7 324 2 633 -2,452 -1,465 -1,874 -2,241 1 965 -2,088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 -297 512 Other services, net3 Balance on goods and services 7 794 11 085 11 436 9 126 15 810 2 191 34 510 91 718 97 256 117 470 129 488 111 892 -28,280 -27,653 -29,210 -32,330 31 190 -35,555 -36,687 -26,055 -28,682 -30,586 -28,964 -23,659 -26,864 -27,894 12 299 12 351 18 547 17 909 20 335 4,620 4,581 4,539 4,807 4 250 4,372 4,555 4,734 4,787 5,042 5,126 5,381 5,725 5,957 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers ' 7 593 7 647 9 188 12 468 15 778 14 656 -3,068 -4,199 -4,376 -4,136 3 137 -3,265 -3,225 -4,586 -3,364 -2,899 -3,376 -5,018 -3,526 -3,094 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Balance on current account 1 533 8 163 6 997 44 286 104 186 112 682 133 249 143 700 126 548 -31,348 -31,852 -33,586 -36,466 34 327 -38^820 -39,912 -30,641 -32,046 -33,485 -32,340 -28,677 -30,390 -30,988 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $28.5 billion in the second quarter of 1989, compared with an increase of $22.1 billion in the first quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $22.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $13.3 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 1989 1981 -SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capit Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 U.S. official reserve assets 1 2 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( + )] 2 ] U.S. private assets Total -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,304 -32,628 -99,665 -76,218 -82,110 8 155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 -3,566 n in — 15,401 -24,763 -26,078 -33,422 -115 16 280 132 -232 238 -1,565 11 -15,054 24 541 -24,793 -33,565 39,048 50,291 69,927 62,339 m 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 40 195 308 843 6,763 25 856 -26,316 40955 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 n m 4,540 -16,119 -37,886 -32,648 1,503 39 -7,380 2,272 -1,490 885 1,961 3,413 4,528 15 273 -32,467 38 332 27,027 65,334 46,179 80,759 HP.... -31,318 7,476 -4,000 -12,095 1,049 -372 -28,367 19,943 60,007 -3,117 1988 1986: I IV 1987: I II IV 1988: I IV 1989: I r 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 72 802 5 162 -5,097 -100,679 -6,131 -110.058 -5,006 -43,576 5489 13 685 -2,821 -25,950 97 954 2024 997 -86,363 2,999 -81,543 58 112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 ivertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve Foreign official assets Other foreign assets 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,083 35,594 45,193 38,882 2,720 15,838 15,785 1,251 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 24,631 5,895 -2,234 10,589 7,478 -4,948 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,152 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 25,322 18,663 34,404 9,194 23,869 15,298 11,308 1,878 -10,641 U.S. official reserve assets, net * (unadjusted, end of period) 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 36,328 34,453 54,142 61,088 7,701 6,324 - 10,263 7,549 3,515 -3,306 4 669 4,463 44,919 46,595 48,087 48,511 19,341 40,805 72,822 39,879 -7,813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 3,895 2 559 -4,501 3,166 48,824 45,140 45,070 45,798 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 479 -15,729 24,047 — 19,434 3,843 3 714 -4,556 4,431 43,186 41,028 47,788 47,802 52,529 1,831 1,702 26,629 4,127 -2,340 49,854 60,502 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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