Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1981

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97tb Congress, 1st Session

ocn^981

Economfg^Tndicators
SEPTEMBER 1981

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1981

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)

SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
PAULA HAWKINS (Florida)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MURRAY L. WEIDENBAUM, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN
JERRY L. JORDAN

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION \S J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled ''Economic Indicators"
'Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a
sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at
Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to
the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 235 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
or by subscription at $19.00 per year ($23.75 for foreign mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
The 1980 Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data
for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at $5.00 a copy from the Superintendent of
Documents, Government Printing Office. It should be noted that many of the series have undergone
major revisions since the Supplement was published in the fall of 1980.




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1981, gross national product rose $32.8 billion or 4.7
percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 1.6 percent from the first quarter level
and the implicit price deflator rose at a 6.4 percent annual rate.
BILLiOh^5 OF DOLLARS

(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,000

3,000
SEASON^\LLY ADJUSTED ANNlJAL RATES

*? snn

7

QAA

7

/""-

-

ZAA

S/

7

ZAA

-

f

X

2400

x

7 7AA

_

X

-

^

2 400

f^

7

7

^^

GNP
S^
Ifsi CURRENT DOLLARS ^
1

\S

QAA

7AA

AAA

-

1 BAH

-

X

1 600

1,400

. I
X

^s'

.X ^
^1

:—
^^^* ^^^^

+~

I

i

1973

1

1

1

1974

I

I

^H

1,400

IN 1972 DOLLARS

*..-**

1 200

*•••»

GNP

*****

~^^

1

1 600

1 200

!

\

I

!

1976

1975

\

I
1977

i

I

I
1978

I

i i i
1979

1

1

1

I

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

i

I

1981

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

992.7 621.7
1, 077. 6 672.2
1, 185. 9 737.1
1, 326. 4 812.0
1, 434. 2 888. 1
1, 549. 2 976. 4
1, 718. 0 1, 084. 3
1, 918. 01, 205. 5
2, 156. 1 348. 7
1,
2, 413. 9 1, 510. 9
2, 626. 1 1, 672. 8

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Expor ts and imjjorts of
goo<is and ser vices
Net
exports

Go vernment purchases of goods and

services
Federal
National
defense

State
and
local

Final
sales

Exports

Imports

Total

65.7
68. 8
77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
183.3
219.8
281.3
339.8

59.0
64.7
76. 7
95. 4
132.8
128. 1
157. 1
187.5
220. 4
267. 9
316.5

220. 1
234.9
253. 1
270.4
304. 1
339. 9
362. 1
394. 5
432.6
473.8
534.7

95.7
96.2
101. 7
102.0
111.0
122. 7
129.2
143.9
153.4
167.9
198.9

73.6
70.2
73. 1
72.8
77.0
83. 0
86.0
93.3
100.0
111.2
131.7

22. 2
26. 0
28. 5
29. 1
33. 9
39. 7
43.2
50.6
53. 4
56.7
67.2

124.4
138.7
151.4
168.5
193. 1
217.2
232.9
250.6
279.2
305.9
335.8

989.5
1, 070. 0
1, 175. 7
1, 307. 9
1, 420. 1
1, 556. 1
1, 706. 2
1, 897. 0
2, 133. 9
2, 396. 4
2, 632. 0

Total

Nondefense

144. 2
166.4
195.0
229. 8
228. 7
206. 1
257.9
322.3
375.3
415.8
395. 3

14.2
13.4
26. 8
13.8
-4.2

1979: III__ 2, 444. 1 1, 529. 1
IV__ 2, 496. 3 1, 582. 3

421. 7
410.0

17.9

293. 1
306.3

275. 2
298.7

475.4
496.4

165. 1
178. 1

112.0
118.7

53. 1
59.4

310.4
318.3

2, 430. 8
2, 497. 1

1980: I
2, 571. 7 1, 631. 0
II... 2, 564. 8 1, 626. 8
III.. 2, 637. 3 1, 682. 2
IV... 2, 730. 6 1, 751. 0

415.6
390.9
377. 1
397.7

17. 1
44. 5
23.3

8.2

337.3
333.3
342.4
346. 1

329. 1
316.2
297.9
322.7

516.8
530.0
533.5
558.6

190.0
198. 7
194. 9
212.0

125.0
128. 7
131.4
141.6

64.9
70. 0
63.5
70. 4

326.8
331.3
338. 6
346.6

2, 569. 1
2, 557. 4
2, 653. 4
2, 748. 0

1981: I.... 2, 853. 0 1, 810. 1
II... 2, 885. 8 1, 829. 1

437. 1
458.6

29. 2
20.8

367.4
368.2

338. 2
347.5

576.5
577.4

221. 6
219.5

145. 2
148. 2

76.4
71.3

354.9
357.9

2, 848. 5
2, 862. 5

6.7
4. 1

.7

-.6

13.4
23.3
7.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Exijorts of gc>ods
Gross Drivate dc>mestic
iiivestment
and service5S
Personal
conGross
Change
national sumpNonResi- in busition
product
residential ness in- exports Exports Imports
expendventofixed
itures dential
fixed
ries

Period

Govermnent pure hases of
gooc s and ser vices

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Final
sales

1970
1971.
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1, 085. 6
1, 122. 4
I, 185. 9
1, 255. 0
1, 248. 0
1, 233. 9
1, 300. 4
1, 371. 7
1, 436. 9
1, 483. 0
1, 480. 7

672. 1
696.8
737. 1
768.5
763.6
780.2
823.7
863. 9
904. 8
930.9
935.1

113.8
112.2
121.0
138. 1
135.7
119.3
125. 6
140. 6
153.4
163.3
158.4

41.0
53.7
63.8
62.3
48. 2
42.2
51.2
60.6
62.4
59. 1
48.1

3.8
8. 1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
12.3
14.0
10.2
-2.9

3.9
1.6
.7
15. 5
27.8
32. 2
25. 4
21.9
24. 6
37.7
52.0

70.5
71.0
77.5
97. 3
108.5
103.6
110. 1
113.2
127.5
146.9
161. 1

66.6
69.3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84. 7
91.3
103.0
109.2
109. 1

251. 1
250. 1
253. 1
253.5
261.2
266.7
266.8
272. 3
277.8
281.8
290.0

110.6
103.7
101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.7
99.8
101.7
108. 1

140.5
146.4
151.4
157.6
164. 5
169.3
170.0
171.6
178.0
180. 1
181.9

1, 081. 8
1, 114. 3
1, 175. 7
1, 237. 8
1, 236. 4
1, 240. 6
1, 292. 7
1, 359. 3
1, 423. 0
1, 472. 9
1, 483. 6

1979:

III- 1, 488. 2
IV.. I, 490. 6

933.4
941. 6

166.4
164. 1

58.6
58. 1

7.6
-.7

41. 1
42.2

151.3
154.8

110.2
112.6

281. 1
285.3

99.9
103. 1

181.2
182.2

1, 480. 6
1, 491. 3

1980: I— .1, 501. 9
1, 463. 3
II
nill 1, 471. 9
IV.._ 1, 485. 6

943.4
919.3
930.8
946.8

165.0
156. 1
155. 5
157.0

54.2
43. 1
44. 7
50.6

-.9
1.3
-5.0
-7.2

50. 1
51.7
57.6
48.5

165. 9
160. 5
160.5
157.4

115.8
108.9
102.8
108.9

290. 1
291.9
288.2
289.8

107.6
110.7
106.9
107.4

182.5
181.2
181.3
182.4

1, 502. 8
1, 462. 0
1, 476. 9
1, 492. 7

1981: I— .1, 516. 4
II- .1, 510. 4

960.2
955. 1

162.0
161. 1

51.0
47.8

-1.4
10.8

50.9
46.2

162.5
161.5

111.6
115.4

293.6
289.5

111.2
108.7

182.5
180.7

1, 517. 8
1, 499. 6

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

Gross
national
product

Persona 1 consumj:>tion expenditures

Total

Gross private
dom estic
investtment

NonresNonDurable durable Services idential
fixed
goods

Residential
fixed

Expoi ts and
imports of goods
and sejrvices

Governnaent purchases of goods
and s(srvices

Exports Imports Federal

State
and
local

1970
1971__
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

91.45
96.01
100. 00
105. 69
114. 92
125. 56
132. 11
139. 83
150. 05
162. 77
177. 36

92. 5
96.5
100.0
105.7
116.3
125. 2
131.6
139. 5
149. 1
162.3
178.9

95.7
99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123. 9
129.2
136.2
144.8
156.0

93.6
96. 6
100.0
108. 3
123. 1
132. 1
137.0
143.4
153. 2
169.8
188.6

90.5
95.6
100. 0
104.7
113.0
121. 6
129.6
139.9
150. 1
162. 1
178. 1

91. 3
96.2
100.0
103.8
115.4
132. 2
138.6
146. 2
157.7
171.3
186.8

90. 5
94.8
100.0
109. 1
120.3
131. 0
140. 7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.6

93.2
97.0
100.0
112. 7
134.7
149.6
155.2
161.9
172.4
191.5
211. 0

88.6
93.3
100.0
116. 7
164.6
179.5
185.5
205.4
214. 0
245.4
290. 1

86. 6
92. 7
100.0
106. 3
114.9
126.0
133. 5
142.9
153. 7
165. 1
183. 9

88.6
94. 7
100.0
106.9
117.4
128.3
137.0
146.0
156.9
169.8
184.7

1979:111
IV

164. 23
167. 47

163. 8
168.0

145.4
148.0

172. 1
176.9

163. 3
167.4

173.4
176.8

204.6
207. 7

193.7
197.9

249.8
265. 2

165. 2
172.8

171.3
174.7

1980: I
II
III
IV

171. 23
175. 28
179. 18
183. 81

172.9
177.0
180.7
184.9

151.9
154. 1
157.5
160.5

182. 9
186.2
190.0
195.2

171. 6
176.0
180. 3
184.3

180. 5
185.7
189. 1
192.4

212.6
217.4
221.9
223. 3

203.4
207.6
213.4
219.9

284. 2
290. 4
289.7
296.4

176.5
179.5
182. 4
197.4

179. 1
182.8
186.7
190.0

1981: I
II

188. 14
191. 06

188.5
191.5

162. 3
165.4

199.2
200.4

188.4
192.2

195. 0
201.4

228. 7
231.8

226. 1
228.0

303. 1
301.2

199.4
201.9

194.5
198.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross national p roduct

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Period

8. 1

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1979:111
IV
1980:1
II
III
IV

5.2
8.6

10. 1
11.8
8. 1
8.0

2.8
-.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6

-1. 1

Implicit
price
deflator

5. 1

8.8

12.2

4. 1

8.8

.6

8. 1

12.6
-1. 1
11.8
14.9

3. 1
-9.9

9.3
9.8
9.2

19.2

1981 * I
II

47

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

Chain
price
index

5.4
5.0
4.2
5.7
8.7
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.3
8.5
9.0
7.8

5.4
5.5
4.8
3.2
-.2

10.9
11.6
12.4
12.0

Per sonal con sumption expenditu res

5.0
5.2
4.8
4.0
5.9
9.4
9.0
5.8
6.4
7.6
9.4
9.6
8.8

5.0
5.3
4.9

4. 1
5.9

9. 1

9.2
5.7
6.2
7.5
8.7
8.6
7.3
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.3

Current
dollars
8.4
6.9

8. 1
9.6

10.2

9.4
9.9

2.4
3.8

10.7

10.5

10.4

11.0
11.2
11.9
12.0
10.7
14.6
14.7
12.9
-1.0
14.3
17.4

8.6

9.8
6.4

9.8
7.7

10.2

14.2

-1.6

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are
from previous quarter.

10.3
9.7
9.3
9.0

7.9

4.3

Constant
(1972)
dollars
3.7
2.2
3.7
5.8
4.3
-.6
2.2
5.6
4.9
4.7
2.9
.5
4.7
3.6
.8

-9.8
5. 1

Implicit
price
deflator
4.5
4.6
4.3
3.7
5.7

10. 1

7.6
5.2
6.0
6.8
8.9

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

4.5
4.6
4.3
3.6
6.0

4.4
4.5
4.2
3.5
6.0

10. 3

7.7
5.3
6.3
7.1
9.3

10.2

10.6

9.4

9.9

10.7
12.0

7.0

9.8
8.8
9.7

5.8

8. 0

-2.1

Chain
price
index

6.5

10.9
12.5

9.7
9.5

10.4

7.8
5.3
6.3
7.2
9.6

11.0
10.4
11.4
13.2

9.9
9.5

10.1

10. 1

10.3

10.9

6.5

6.5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Period

Gross d omestic
Drodt- c t of
nonfin ancial
corpc)rate
busi ness
(billic>ns of
doll irs)
Current
dollars

604. 0
599. 6
626.8
678.0
731.9
708. 2
694.2
745.5
799.0
845. 1
873.3
867.2
874. 3
873.4
878.2
853. 2
860.4
876.9
901.0
901.2

Total
cost
and
profit 2

1972
dollars

544. 1
1969
1970_. __ 563.7
609. 9
1971
678.0
1972 _
1973__ __ 759.4
818. 9
1974
890.0
1975
1, 001. 3
1976
1, 129. 5
1977
1978___ _ 1, 270. 7
1, 417. 0
1979
1, 535. 2
1980
1979: III_. 1, 432. 1
IV__. 1, 457. 7
1, 502. 1
1980:1
!!___ 1, 496. 3
III... 1, 537. 7
IV.... 1, 604. 7
1, 690. 1
1981: I
II.... 1, 716. 3

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
C urrent-dol lar cost a nd profit )er unit of outpu t (dollars) i

0. 901
.940
.973
1.000
1.038
1. 156
1.282
1.343
1. 414
1.504
1. 623
1.770
1.638
1.669
1.710
1. 754
1.787
1.830
1.876
1.904

Capital
consumption
Comallowpenances Indirect
business sation
with
3
of
capital taxes
employconees
sumption
adjustment
0.096
0.078
. 106
.087
. 113
. 091
.092
. 113
. 114
.093
. 112
. 127
. 140
. 137
. 141
. 141
. 144
. 146
. 148
. 153
. 153
. 169
. 176
. 191
. 154
. 172
. 157
. 175
. ISO
. 161
. 173
. 192
. 181
. 196
. 188
. 197
. 199
. 197
.204
.202

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate
business In 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
s Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments
less subsidies.




Net
interest

Corpc rate profi ts with
invent*3ry valual:ion and
capil,al consun iption
iidjustmen ts

Total

0.594 0.022 0. 112
.088
. 028
. 631
.099
.641
.029
. 028 . 107
.659
. 692 ,031
. 107
.090
.042
.786
. 124
.044
.837
. 144
.040
.878
. 924 . 042 . 158
.044
. 163
.996
.052
1.092
. 157
.065
.143
1. 196
. 154
1. 104
.053
. 146
.056
1. 135
. 151
.060
1. 158
. 132
.064
1. 193
. 067 . 141
1. 203
. 146
.068
1. 230
1.244
. 169
.067
. 163
. 070
1. 266
4

Profits
tax
liability
0.055
.045
. 047
.049
.055
. 059
.059
.071
.074
.080
.080
. 073
.081
.078
.085
. 061
.070
.075
.076
.064

Profits
after
tax 4
0. 057
.043
.052
.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.084
.083
.077
. 070
.074
.067
.066
.071
.071
.071
.093
.098

ComOutput
penper
sation
hour
per
of all
hour
employ- of all
ees
employ(1972
ees
dollars) (dollars)

7.098
7. 126
7.467
7.688
7.891
7.622
7. 881
8. 132
8.348
8.384
8.384
8.432
8.388
8.338
8.369
8.359
8.496
8.496
8.628
8.646

4.213
4.498
4.788
5.068
5. 458
5.989
6.596
7.138
7.713
8.347
9. 159
10. 085
9.260
9.462
9. 694
9.973
10. 218
10. 450
10. 737
10. 976

With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Corpor ate profits> with inv entory va luation
Propri etors1
and capital consumptio a adjustm ents
mcom e with
Rental
inventor y valua- income
Profits with inv entory
tion anc capital of perComvaluat,ion adjustment
consuEaption
sons
pensaand ^vithout csipital
adjust ments
with
tion of
NaNet
consum Dtion adjiistment Capital
capital
coneminterest
tional
conincome ployTotal
Inven- sumpsumpees *
tion
tory
Profits valua- adjusttion
NonFarm
adjustTotal
farm
before
ment
tinn
tax
ment
adjustment

Period

612. 0
652. 2
718.0
801. 3
877.5
931.4
1, 036. 3
1, 152. 3
1, 299. 7
1, 460. 9
1, 596. 5
1, 476. 7
1, 518. 1
1, 558. 0
1, 569. 0
1, 597. 4
1, 661. 8

14.3
15. 0
18.7
32. 8
26.5
24.6
19. 1
18.4
26. 1
30. 8
23.4
30.2
29. 5
25.7
23.3
22. 1
22. 5

51.9
54.4
58. 1
61. 0
62. 2
65.4
75.0
85. 1
91. 0
100.7
107.2
102.7
106.8
107.9
101.6
107.6
111.6

19.7
20.2
21.0
22. 6
23.5
23. 0
23.5
25. 1
27.4
30.5
31.8
30.3
31. 0
31.2
31.5
32. 0
32.4

71.4
83.2
96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138. 1
164.7
185.5
196.8
182.7
199.5
189.4
200.2
169.3
177. 9
183.3

68.9
82.0
94.0
105. 6
96.7
120. 6
151. 6
176.7
199.0
212. 7
199.8
215.6
204. 5
215. 6
186.9
195.9
201.0

75.4
86. 6
100.6
125. 6
136.7
132. 1
166. 3
192. 6
223. 3
255.4
245.5
262.0
255.4
277.1
217.9
237.6
249. 5

-6.6
-4.6
-6.6
-20. 0
-40.0
11.6
-14.7
-15.8
-24.3
-42. 6
-45.7
-46. 5
-50.8
-61.4
-31. 1
-41.7
-48.4

-1.8
-10. 1
-13.5
-12.0
-13.5
-15. 9
-17.2
-16. 1
-15. 1
-15.4
-17.6
-17.9
-17.8

41.4
46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
100.9
115.8
143.4
179.8
146.8
156.5
165.4
175.3
185.3
193.3

2, 291. 1 1, 722. 4
2, 320. 9 1, 752. 0

18.9
21.7

113.2
112.5

32.7
33.3

203.0
190.3

217.7
205. 1

257.0
229.0

-39.2
-24.0

-14.7
-14.7

200.8
211.0

810. 7
1970
871.5
1971
963. 6
1972
1, 086. 2
1973
1, 160. 7
1974
1, 239. 4
1975
.
1, 379. 2
1976
1, 546. 5
1977
1, 745. 4
1978
1,963.3
1979
2, 121. 4
1980
1, 986. 2
1979: III
2, 031. 3
IV
2, 088. 5
1980: I
2, 070. 0
II
III
_. 2, 122. 4
2, 204. 8
IV___
1981: I
II

»Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

2.5

1. 3

2.7
2.7

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Total
personal
consumption Total
expendi- durable
goods l
tures

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

621.7
672.2
737. 1
812.0
888. 1
976.4
1, 084. 3
1, 205. 5
1, 348. 7
1, 510. 9
1, 672. 8

85.2
97.2
111. 1
123. 3
121.5
132. 2
156. 8
178.8
199.3
212.3
211.9

36. 2
45.4
52.4
57. 1
50.4
55.8
72.6
85. 0
94. 3
95.5
89.9

Furniture
and
household
equipment
35. 2
37.2
41.7
47. 1
50.6
53. 5
59. 1
65. 8
72.9
81. 1
84.6

1979: III._. 1, 529. 1
IV
1, 582. 3

213.3
216. 1

94.7
95.4

1980: I
II
III___
IV

1, 631. 0
1, 626. 8
1, 682. 2
1, 751. 0

220. 9
194. 4
208. 8
223. 3

1981: I
II

1, 810. 1
1, 829. 1

238. 3
227.3

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977.---.:—
1978___
__
1979
1980

Total
nondurable
goods l

Food

Clothing
and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

Services
Domestics

Imports

265. 7
278.8
300. 6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441. 7
479. 0
529.8
602.2
675.7

138.9
144.2
154. 9
172. 1
193. 7
213.6
230. 6
250.3
276.4
312. 1
345.7

46. 8
50.6
55.4
61. 4
64.8
69. 6
75.3
82. 1
91. 9
98.9
104. 8

22. 4
23.9
25.4
28. 6
36.6
40. 4
44.0
48. 2
52. 7
68.4
89.0

270.8
296. 2
325.3
355.2
393. 2
437.0
485 7
547.7
619.6
696. 3
785.2

8.7
9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6

82. 4
83.8

611.5
639.2

314.3
329.0

100. 3
102.5

72. 1
77.6

704.3
727.0

8.5
7.4

2.2
2.4

100.6
77.5
87.0
94.6

83.6
81. 3
84. 6
88.9

661. 1
664.0
674.2
703.5

336.2
338. 4
347.7
360.4

102. 2
102.3
105. 3
109.4

89. 4
90.9
85.3
90.5

749.0
768. 4
799. 2
824.2

7.9
5.4
6.4
6.6

2.7

105.4
93.4

92.3
92.4

726.0
735.3

372.5
377.8

113.4
115.8

93.5
92.4

845.8
866.5

7.4
5.6

i Total includes other items not shown separately.




Retail sales of
new pa ssenger
cars(nlillions
of uilits)

Nondura jle goods

Durable goo<Is

7. 1

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

1.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4

1. 6

1.5

2. 1
2.0

2. 3
2.4

2. 3

2.3
2.5

2. ?!

2.2

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $26.9 billion (annual rate) in August following a rise of $34.7 billion in July. The smaller
increase in August was due to transfer payments, which rose $1.4 billion compared to a $1 5.8 billion rise in July that
reflected an 11.2 percent cost-of-living adjustment to social security and several other transfer payment programs. In
August, wages and salaries rose $16.2 billion compared to $10.7 billion in July.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATlO SCALE)
2,800

2,800

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400
1,200

1,200
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

1,000

1,000
800

800

600

600

OTHER INCOME

400

400

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

\
200

200

160

160

120

120

100

100

80

80
1974

1973

1975

1976

1977

1979

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
3
Wage
Rental
Other Propriet( >rs' income income Personal Personal Transfer
Total
and
dividend interest
pay- 8
labor 12
personal salary
of
income disburse- income
Nonfarm persons 4 income income ments
Farm
l
ments
1, 065. 2
702.7
765.7
1, 16& 6
806.4
1, 265. 0
889.9
1, 391. 2
983.8
1, 538. 0
1, 721. 8 1, 105. 2
1, 943. 8 1, 236. 1
2, 160. 2 1, 343. 7

1981

Less: Personal con- Nonfarm
tributions personal
for social income 8
insurance

48.8
55.8
64.5
75.9
89.0
102.2
118.6
137. 1

32.8
26.5
24.6
19. 1
18.4
26. 1
30.8
23.4

61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
85. 1
91.0
100.7
107.2

22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
25. 1
27.4
30.5
31.8

26.5
29. 1
29.9
36.5
38.7
43. 1
48.6
54.4

93.9
112.4
123.2
132.5
151.6
173.2
209.6
256.3

119.5
141.2
178. 3
194.3
207.5
223.3
249.4
294.2

42.6
47.9
50.4
55.5
61. 1
69. 6
80.6
87.9

1, 023. 7
1, 131. 8
1, 229. 1
1, 359. 3
1, 505. 0
1, 679. 2
1, 892. 9
2, 112. 6

1980: Aug_._. 2, 179. 4
Sept... 2, 205. 7
Oct
2, 234. 3
Nov___ 2, 257. 6
Dec
2, 276. 6

1, 342. 4
1, 356. 8
1, 381. 7
1, 400. 4
1, 411. 2

139. 1
140.4
141.9
143. 5
145.0

22.0
21.9
22.2
22. 6
22.6

106.3
111.4
111.5
111.5
111.6

32.0
32.2
32.3
32.4
32.5

55.2
55.4
55.5
55.9
56.7

261.7
263.2
265.6
269.4
274. 1

309.0
313.4
313.8
313.2
314.7

88.3
89. 1
90.4
91.4
91.9

2, 132. 7
2, 158. 7
2, 186. 8
2, 209. 7
2, 228. 5

1981: Jan
2, 300. 7
Feb
2, 318. 2
Mar
2, 340. 4
Apr
2, 353. 8
May
2, 367. 4
June
2, 384. 3
July *>»_ 2, 419. 0
Aug »— 2, 445. 8

1, 433. 1
1, 442. 8
1, 452. 8
1, 459. 6
1, 467. 3
1, 473. 9
1, 484. 6
1, 500. 9

146.6
148. 0
149.5
150. 9
151.6
153. 0
154.8
156.3

19. 9
18.7
18.2
20.2
21. 7
23.2
23.9
24.5

112.8
112. 6
114.2
113.0
112.2
112. 2
112. 3
112.7

32.5
32.7
32. 9
33. 1
33.3
33.5
33. 7
33. 9

57.4
58.2
58. 3
59.4
60. 2
61. 1
62.4
63.0

281.8
289. 1
295.2
297.9
300.6
304. 1
309. 1
315.7

318.4
318.4
321.9
322.5
323. 5
326.5
342.3
343.7

101.9
102. 3
102.6
102.9
103. 1
103.3
104.2
104.9

2, 254. 8
2, 273. 2
2, 295. 4
2, 306. 4
2, 318. 1
2, 333. 1
2, 366. 6
2, 392. 5

i The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs
from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
* Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare
funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
!
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




* With capital consumption adjustment.
«Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans
payments.
6
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other
labor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: DeDartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000
1981

1973
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

T

P*»r-

Period

Persona]
income

tax
and
nontax
payments

Equals :
Disposable
personal
income

T

Personal
outlays l

Per c apita
dispc sable
persona income

Equals :
Personal
saving Current
dollars

Bil lions of d ollars

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976___
1977
1978___
1979
1980

951.4
1, 065. 2
1, 168. 6
1, 265. 0
_ 1, 391. 2
1, 538. 0
1, 721. 8
1, 943. 8
2, 160. 2

141. 0
150.7
170. 2
168. 9
196.8
226. 5
258.8
302. 0
338.5

810.3
914. 5
998.3
1, 096. 1
1, 194. 4
1, 311. 5
1, 462. 9
1, 641. 7
1, 821. 7

1972
dollars

Per cap ita personal ccmsumption exp snditures

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

52.6
79.0
85. 1
94.3
82.5
74. 1
76.3
86.2
101.3

3,860
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,954
6,571
7,293
8,002

3,860
4,083
4,013
4,055
4,161
4,266
4,409
4,493
4,473

Saving
as percent of Populadispostion
(thou-2
able
sands)
personal
income

Per cent

Dollars

757.7
835. 5
913.2
1, 001. 8
1, 111. 9
1, 237. 5
1, 386. 6
1, 555. 5
1, 720. 4

Percent
change
in real
per
capita
disposable
personal
income

3,511
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,472
6,058
6,712
7,348

3,511
3,626
3,570
3,612
3,777
3,922
4,064
4, 135
4,108

2.9
5.8

-1.7
1. 0

6.5
8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9

209, 924
211, 939
213, 898
215, 981
218, 086
220, 289
222, 629
225, 106
227, 654

2.6
2.5
3.4
1.9
-.4

5.2
5.2
5.6

2.3
-.4

5.4
47

-5.9

.2

4.9
6.2

3.0
1.8

6. 1
5. 1

225, 418
226, 117
226, 727
227, 332
227, 977
228, 578

2.1
.5

4.6
5.4

229, 051
229, 537

5. 6

Seas onally ad: usted ann ual rates
1979: III__ 1, 972. 3
IV. _ 2, 032. 0
1980: !____ 2, 088. 2
II
2, 114. 5
III 2, 182. 1
IV.. 2, 256. 2

308.4
321.8
323. 1
330. 3
341.5
359.2

1, 663. 8
1, 710. 1
1, 765. 1
1, 784. 1
1, 840. 6
1, 897. 0

1, 574. 5
1, 629. 4
1, 678. 7
1, 674. 1
1, 729. 2
1, 799. 4

89.3
80.7
86.4
110. 0
111. 4
97.6

7,381
7,563
7,785
7,848
8,074
8,299

4,506
4,501
4,503
4,435
4,468
4,488

6,783
6,998
7,194
7,156
7,379
7, 6§0

4,141
4,164
4,161
4,044
4,083
4,142

1981: ! _ _ _ 2, 319. 8 372.0 1, 947. 8 1, 858. 9
IL_. 2, 368. 5 382.9 1, 985. 6 1, 879. 0

88.9
106.6

8,504
8,651

4,511
4,517

7,903
7,969

4,192
4,161

1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to
business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data,
which are averages for the period.




Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the second quarter, gross farm income rose $7.5 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $4.7 billion from
first quarter levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

200

1200

100

100

GROSS FARM INCOME
80

60

60

40

40
NET FARM INCOME

20

20

10
1975

1974

1973

1976

1978

1977

1979

1980

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURtF- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming

Grc>ss farm incc)me

Net farni income

Cash marketing n3ceipts

Period
Total l

Livestock
Total

and

Crops

Value of
inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

Current
dollars

1967

dollars 8

products

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

_ _

1979:111

IV

1980:1

II__ _
III
IV
1981:1

II

__

__

_

_
_

33.3
26. 1
24.5
18. 7
18.4
26. 5
32.7
19. 9

25. 1
17.7
15.2
11.0
10.2
13.5
15. 1
8. 1

6.6

5. 1

120.2
124.9

32. 3
29. 2

14. 6
12. 8

66.7
67. 9
70.3
71. 1

.9
-1.9
-3. 7
-3.3

126.0
129. 0
132. 2
135.6

23.4
16. 9
19. 7
19. 5

9.9

72. 7
76.7

-1. 9

139.4
142. 2

18. 3
23.0

7.0
8.6

87. 1
92.4
88.2
94.8
96.3
112.9
131.9
136.4

45.9
41. 4
43.0
46. 1
47.6
59. 2
68.5
67. 4

41. 1
51. 1
45. 1
48.7
48.7
53. 7
63.4
69. 0

-2.4
1. 0
.6

152.5
154. 1

131.4
133.6

67. 1
67. 5

64.3
66. 1

149.3
145. 8
151.9
155. 1

133. 0
131. 9
139.2
141. 5

66. 3
64.0
68.9
70. 4

157.7
165. 2

142. 5
145. 7

69. 8
69.0

1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments,
other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities
valued at average prices during the year.




65. 6
72.2
75.9
83. 1
90.3
101. 1
119. 2
130. 7

98.9
98.3
100. 3
101.8
108. 7
127. 5
151.9
150.5

3.4

-1. 6
3.4

5.3

-2. 0

2.0

6. 9

7.9
7.6

3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department
of Labor).
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the second quarter, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $28.0 billion (annual rate)
while after-tax profits fell $16.5 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

320

320
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

280

280

240

240

200

200
PROFITS BEFORE

160

160
PROFITS AFTER TAX

±^=

120

120

1
UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

80

80

TAX LIABILITY
40

40

i i

1
1973

1975

1974

1976

1977

1978

1980

1979

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits after tax

Profil bs (before tax) wit i invent<)ry valueition
adjustn lent *
Dome stic indu stries
ISlonfinanc 3ial

Period

Total *

Total

Financial
Total3

Manufacturmg

Wholesale
and
retail
trade

Profits
before
tax

Tax
liability

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

Inventory
tion
adjustment

1970
1971
_
1972
1973__
_
1974
1975
1976
1977__
_ _ __
1978__
1979- _
1980
1979: III
IV
1980: I ._
II
__
III
IV

68.9
82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120. 6
151.6
176.7
199.0
212. 7
199. 8
215. 6
204.5
215.6
186. 9
195.9
201. 0

62.4
74. 9
85.3
92. 0
80.4
107. 6
137.4
161. 2
179. 3
182.4
168.7
180. 5
172. 9
179.0
157.5
165. 0
173.4

12. 1
14. 1
15. 3
15. 9
15.0
11. 8
17. 1
23.5
29. 3
31.6
30.6
31.5
32.6
33.3
30. 1
28.7
30.5

50.2
60. 8
70.0
76.0
65. 4
95.8
120. 3
137.7
150.0
150.8
138. 1
149. 0
140. 3
145.7
127.5
136. 2
142.9

26.6
34. 1
40.7
45. 5
39.0
52. 6
69.2
76.2
85.3
88.9
74.5
84. 4
80.2
92. 1
61. 3
68.5
76.2

9.5
11.7
13.4
13. 9
12.5
21. 3
22.4
27. 0
24.5
23.0
20.9
25. 6
22.6
14.8
25. 9
20.4
22.6

75.4
86. 6
100.6
125. 6
136.7
132. 1
166.3
192.6
223. 3
255. 4
245. 5
262. 0
255.4
277. 1
217. 9
237.6
249. 5

34.2
37.5
41. 6
49.0
51. 6
50. 6
63. 8
72.6
83.0
87. 6
82.3
88.4
87.2
94. 2
71.5
78. 5
85.2

41.3
49. 0
58.9
76.6
85. 1
81.5
102. 5
120. 0
140. 3
167. 8
163.2
173.6
168.2
182. 9
146.5
159. 1
164.3

22. 5
22. 9
24.4
27. 0
29.9
30. 8
37.4
39.9
44. 6
50.2
56.0
50.2
51.6
53.9
55. 7
56.7
57.7

18.8
26. 1
34. 5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65. 1
80. 1
95.7
117. 6
107.2
123.5
116.6
128. 9
90.7
102. 4
106.6

— 6. 6
-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
— 40. 0
-11.6
-14.7
-15.8
-24.3
— 42. 6
-45.7
-46.5
-50.8
-61.4
-31. 1
-41.7
-48.4

1981: I
II

217.7
205. 1

192. 3
182.3

28. 6
24. 3

163. 7
158. 0

90. 4
84.4

27.5
28.4

257.0
229. 0

87. 7
76. 4

169.2
152. 7

59. 6
62.0

109.6
90.6

-39. 2
-24.0

_

I
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
II
adjustments.
"tments.
»In<
icludes rest of the world, not shown separately.

8



»Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment rose $8.7 billion (annual rate) as
nonresidential construction outlays rose $5.9 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases increased $2.8
billion. Residential investment outlays fell $6.0 billion. There was a $23.3 billion increase in inventories following a
$4.5 billion increase in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
SEA SONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

450

450

400

S~^
-*-> ^
x

GROSS PRIVATE DOMES nc
INVESTMENT

/

\

350

S^

f
^s^X*^
"%^

350

/^

300

^
250

f

.—^

s~~
300

+*

/

NONREJ IDENTIAL
FIXED IN^/ESTMENT ++

^

»•*"*
i

250

-V"

^^S^

'

200

400

^^^

200

150

150
RESIDENTIA
FIXED INVESTM ENT

100

«•""•»•••• I "*•,»,„,

50
"'*"

1

-50

I

i

1973

^s ^

.-.•.

100

-*'

i

'""""*%

I

I

,—^-t...—-....,,.
\

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

\

I

I

i

I

I

1976

1975

1974

CHANGE IN BUSINEss
INVENTORIES
\
^......^"•WX^ ».»""il*"«...,lil.11,..

I

I

I

1977

I

i

1978

50

'x'-,,.......-,
I

I

!

/

i i i

1979

1980

,

I

I

i

-50

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1979: III
IV
1980:1
II
III
IV
1981: I
II_

_

144.2
166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206. 1
257.9
322.3
375.3
415.8
395.3
421.7
410. 0
415.6
390.9
377. 1
397.7
437. 1
458. 6

Nonresidential fixed
investment

Total

103. 9
107.9
121. 0
143.3
156.6
157,7
174. 1
205.5
242. 0
279.7
296.0
288. 5
290.2
297.8
289. 8
294.0
302. 1
315.9
324.6

Structures

38.7
40.5
44, 1
51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64. 6
78.7
96.3
108.8
99.6
105. 1
108.2
108.4
107.3
111.5
117.2
123. 1

Producers'
durable
equipment
65.2
67.4
76.9
92.3
100.7
102.3
115. 3
140.9
163.3
183.4
187. 1
189.0
185. 1
189.7
181.4
186.8
190.7
198.7
201.5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Re sidential fb:ed investnlent

Total

37. 1
50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
105.3
119.8
120.6
115.2
93.6
99.2
113.0
116. 7
110.7

Nonfarm
structures
35.4
48. 9
61.5
65.6
54.8
52.4
68.8
91.9
106.9
113. 9
100.3
114.9
115. 4
110. 1
88.9
94.5
107.6
111.4
105.4

structures

0.6
.7
.7
.7
1.3
1.0
1. 1
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.2
2. 1

Producers'
durable
equipment
1. 1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2. 1
2.3
2.6
2. 9
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3. 1
3.2
3.2

Change in business m\rentories

Total

Nonfarm

3.2
7.7
10. 2
18.5
14. 1
-6.9
11.8
21. 0
22.2
17.5
-5.9
13.3
-.8
2.5
7.4
-16.0
-17.4
4.5
23. 3

3. 1
6.4
9.6
15.2
16.0
— 10. 5
13.9
20.2
21.8
13.4
-4.7
7.8
-4.4
1.5
6. 1
— 12. 3
-14.0
6.8
21.5

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS
Nonform business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1981 is expected to be 8.8 percent above 1980/
according to the Commerce Department July-August survey. Expenditures in 1980 were 9.3 percent higher than in 1979.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

100

80

60

40

40

30

30

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW,
SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plant and equi pment
Ma nufactur ing

Period

Total

Plant

Equipment
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 4
1981
1980: !___
II_.
IIL_
IV__

1981: I —

II__
III 44_
IV -

137. 70
156. 98
157. 71
171. 45
198. 08
231. 24
270. 46
295. 63
321. 50
291. 89
294. 36
296. 23
299. 58
312. 24
316. 73
322. 96
332. 69

56. 66
64.29
65. 21
71.20
80. 31
92. 70
105. 73
117. 55

115. 96
116. 50
117. 59
120. 27
128. 57
131. 05

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

81. 04 42.37
92. 69 53. 21
92.50 54.92
100. 25 59. 95
117. 77 69.22
138. 54 79.72
164. 73 98. 68
178. 08 115. 81
126. 79
175. 93 111. 77
177. 86 115. 69
178. 64 116. 40
179. 32 118. 63
183. 67 124. 50
185. 68 125. 49
128. 72
128. 11

22. 75
27. 44
26. 33
28. 47
34.04
40. 43
51.07
58. 91
62. 92
58.28
59, 38
58. 19
59. 77
61. 24
63. 10
63. 07
64. 06

19.62
25. 76
28. 59
31. 47
35. 18
39.29
47.61
56.90
63.87
53. 49
56. 32
58. 21
58.86
63.27
62. 40
65.65
64. 05

1
Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal,
business, and professional services.
2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services.

10



Starts of
plant and
equipment
Com- projects,
Trade munimanufacTrans- Public
and
Total Mining porta- utilities serv- cation turing 3
and 2
tion
ices * other
I^onmanuifacturin g

95. 33
103. 78
102. 79
111. 50
128. 87
151. 52
171. 77
179. 81
194. 71
180. 13
178. 66
179. 83
180. 95
187. 74
191. 24
194. 23
204. 58

3.31
4. 62
6. 10
7.44
9.24
10.21
11. 38
13.51
16. 47
11.89
12.81
13.86
15. 28
16. 20
16. 80
16. 12
16.70

7.41
8.23
8. 68
8.89
9. 40
10.68
12. 35
12.09
12. 15
12. 47
12. 09
12. 23
11. 70
11. 74
11.70
11. 07
13. 88

17.97
19.83
19.98
22. 37
26.79
29. 95
33.96
35. 44
36. 91
36.26
35.03
35.58
34.96
36.05
37. 84
36.79
37. 00

45. 53 21. 12
47.79 23. 30
46. 23 21.80
49. 30 23. 51
56.54 26. 90
68. 66 32. 02
79.26 34. 83
81. 79 36.99
87.30 41.89
82. 17 37.34
81.07 37.66
81. 19 36.97
82.91 36. 11
83.43 40. 32
85. 88 39. 02
86. 55 43. 70
92. 68 44.31

53.21
61. 24
56.51
59. 38
77.40
88. 16
112. 98
123. 32
32.43
29.41
27.74
33.53
35. 41
32. 90

s Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during
given period.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August
1981, corrected for biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES

STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE

Seasonally adjusted employment was about unchanged in August, while unemployment rose 1 55,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
110

MILLIONS OF PERSONS
110

1973

1981

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Period

Noninstitutional
population

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
Civilian einploymenit
Unempl<syment
Total
labor
N onagri cultural
15
Civilian Unemforce Civilian
Part-time Total weeks
Agriemploy- ploy- (includ- labor
Total
and
culment
ment
force
ing
Total for economic l
over
tural
Armed
reasons
Forces)
7,830 2,483
3,490
84, 783 7,830 94, 793 92, 613 84, 783 3,380 81, 403
3,272
7,288 2,340
87, 485 7,288 96, 917 94, 773 87, 485 3,297 84, 188
3,297
6,855 1,911
90, 546 6,855 99, 534 97, 401 90, 546 3,244 87, 302
3,216
6,047 1,379
94, 373 6,047 102, 537 100, 420 94, 373 3,342 91, 031
3,281
5,963 1,202
96, 945 5,963 104, 996 102, 908 96, 945 3,297 93, 648
3,965
7,448 1,829
97, 270 7,448 106, 821 104, 719 97, 270 3,310 93, 960

Labor
force
participation
rate
(per-2
cent)

1975
1976
1977
1978*
1979
1980

153,
156,
158,
161,
163,
166,

449
048
559
058
620
246

1980: Aug..
Sept__
Oct..
Nov.Dee_.

166,
166,
167,
167,
167,

578
789
005
201
396

98, 115
97, 256
97, 933
97, 801
97, 545

8,011
7,464
7,482
7,486
7,233

107,
107,
107,
107,
107,

059
101
288
404
191

104,
104,
105,
105,
105,

945
980
167
285
067

97, 003
97, 180
97, 206
97, 339
97, 282

3,210
3,399
3,319
3,340
3,394

93,
93,
93,
93,
93,

793
781
887
999
888

4, 143
4,183
4,220
4, 176
4,218

7,942
7,800
7,961
7, 946
7,785

2, 150
2,295
2,292
2, 329
2,378

64.3
64.2
64.2
64.2
64.0

1981: Jan..
Feb._.
Mar..
Apr_.
May-June..
July._
Aug___

167,
167,
167,
168,
168,
168,
168,
168,

585 96, 128
747 96, 383
902 97, 318
071 98, 282
272 98, 803
480 99, 341
685 100, 474
855 100, 013

8,543
8,425
8,087
7,396
7,545
8,279
7,934
7, 758

107,
107,
108,
108,
109,
108,
108,
108,

668
802
305
851
533
307
603
762

105, 543
105, 681
106, 177
106, 722
107, 406
106, 176
106, 464
106, 602

97, 696
97, 927
98, 412
98, 976
99, 235
98, 392
98, 962
98, 944

3,403
3,281
3,276
3,463
3,353
3,265
3,258
3,370

94, 294
94, 646
95, 136
95, 513
95, 882
95, 127
95, 704
95, 574

4,474
4,145
4,227
4,044
4, 143
3,798
4,225
4, 187

7,847
7,754
7,764
7,746
8, 171
7,784
7,502
7,657

2,358
2,250
2, 192
2, 105
2, 168
2,315
2, 100
2, 194

64.2
64. 3
64.5
64.8
65. 1
64.3
64.4
64.4

Seascmally adj usted

Uiladjusted

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.
2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and
over.
*Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of




61.8
62. 1
62.8
63.7
64.2
64.3

revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and
to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In August the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent in July.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED)

20

V

lA

Y,<->-

\A
15

TEENAGERS
(16-19)

10
WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

1977

1977

1981

11111 11I11 1iI11IIIIII
1979
1978

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1981

1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Dnemplo yment nate (perc ent of ci vilian lat>or force in group )
B y s ex and a ge
By s(sleeted groups
By race
Total
(all
civilian
workers)

Period

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

Men
20
years
and
over

8.5
7.7
7.0
6.0
5.8
7.1

6.7
5.9

1980: Aug.
Sept.
Oct___
Nov
Dec

7.6
7.4
7.6
7.5
7.4

6.5
6.6
6.4
6.4

1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July _
Aug

7.4
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.6
7.3
7.0
7.2

6.0

1

.

_

5. 2

4.2

4. 1
5.9

6. 2

6. 0

5.9
5.8

6. 3
6. 1
5.6
5.9

Women
20
years
and
over

Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

8.0
7.4
7.0
6.0
5.7
6.3

19.9
19. 0
17.7
16.3
16. 1
17.7

7.8
7.0
6.2
5.2

6.5
6.2
6.7
6.7
6.8

18.8
17.8
18.5
18. 6
17.8

6.7

6.7
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.5

19. 0
19.3
19. 1
19. 1
19. 5
19.0
18. 1
18.8

Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



5. 1

6.3

6. 5

6.6
6.6
6.5

6.7
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.8
6.4

6. 2
6. 1

ExpeBlack rienced
wage
and
and
other salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

Women
who
maintain
families

Fulltime
workers

5. 1

10.0
10.0

8. 1

9.0
9.0

7.3
7.3
7.3
7.4
7.3

13.9
13. 1
13.1
11.9
11.3
13.2

8.2
7.3
6.6
5.6
5.4
6.8

4.2
3.6
2.8
2.7
4.2

13.7
14. 1

7.4
7.2
7.3
7.2

7. 1

4.8
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.3

10.2
9. 9
10.4

7. 1

4.2

10.5

142

14.0
14.0
12.9
13. 1
13.7
13.2
13. 6
14.2
13. 6
15.0

7.0
7.0
6.8
7.4
7.0
6.8
6.9

4. 1
4. 1
3.8

4. 1
4.2

3. 9

3.9

9.3
8.5
8.3
9.1

9.6

9. 4

9.8

10.3
10.6
11. 5
9.8

7.3
6.5
5.5
5.3
6.8

7. 1
7. 1
7. 1

6.9
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Labor
force
Part- time
lost
time
(perwork- cent) l
ers

10.3
10. 1
9.8
9.0
8.7
8.7

8.7
8.7

9. 1

8.6
8.2
9.2

9. 1

9.0

9. 0

9.7
9.2
9.3
9.7

9. 1

8.3
7.6
6.5
6.3
7.9
8.3
8.2
8.4
8.3
8.2
8.2

8. 1
8. 1

8.2
8.6
8.0
7.9
7.9

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In August, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work 1 to 3 months rose, as did the percentage
out of work for 6 months or more.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
60

60

50

40

30

20
15-26
WEEKS

27 WEEKS
AND OVER

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Aug..
Sept..
Oct..
Nov._
Dec..
1981: Jan..
Feb__
Mar..
Apr__
May._
June..
July..
Aug...

7,288
6,855
6,047
5,963
7,448
7,942
7,800
7,961
7,946
7,785
7,847
7,754
7,764
7,746
8,171
7,784
7, 502
7,657

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Pereenit distribution of unem- State pirograms Insured
Percen t distrib ution of unemunem- Special
plo yment b y duraticm *
Pi oyment 1by reasoii *
unemployment.
ployall
ment
27
Less
New Insured Initial regular benefit
5-14
15-26 weeks
unemJob
Job
Reenthan 5 weeks weeks and
enprolosers leavers trants trants ploy- claims grams claims
weeks
(unadmpni'
over
(unad-2 justed) *
justed)
We*jkly avei age, thoussands
12.2
38.3
29.6
386
13.8
18.3
49.7
12. 1 2,991
26.0
1,152
3,846
41.7
30.5
13. 1
45.3
13.0
375
14.8
28. 1
13.7 2,655
572
3,308
46.2
31.0
12.3
14.1 30.0
10.5
41.6
346
14.3 2,359
2,645
11.5
42.8
14.3
48.1 31.7
388
8.7
13.4 2, 434
29.5
2,592
32.4
13.8
51.9
10.8
11.6
25.2
11.4 3,350
43.1
489
3,837
15.6
54.2
11.2
41.0
31.9
11.5
503
23.6
10.9 3,748
3,911
38.4
17.2
32.6
55.2
11.7
10.8 23.2
495
10.8 3,782
3,961
31.3
15.7
39.9
53.0
13.0
10.9
11.0 3,602
25.2
458
3,661
15.2
39.0
31.7
53.5
14.0
11.3 24.0
11.2 3,367
424
3, 726
40.4
16.0
28.8
14.9
54.3
10.5
11.2 3,083
415
24.0
4,085
16.2
41.3 28.7
13.7
49.4
11.6
26.2
12.8 2,982
417
4,621
41.2
12.8
29.9
16.2
12. 1 2,825
50.7
11.5
410
25.7
4,264
41.4
30.4
15.2
13. 1
49.7
11.2
26.4
12.7 2,906
433
3, 948
32.2
40.2
13. 1
14.5
49.7
11.1 26.3
415
12.9 2,923
3,453
41.5
12.6
31.8
14. 1
50. 1
12.4
26. 1
11.5 2,945
414
3,111
40.4
15.4
30. 1
14.1 52.8
10.8 24.5
12.0 2,972
418
2,949
14.3
42.6
29.3
13.8
49.3
12.0
27.0
11.7 2,821
401
3,012
41.0
30.5
13.8
51.4
14.7
25.4
11.0
12.3 2,938
433
2,874

*
2 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Bico, and Virgin
Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (EB) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not
include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting
began March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment
and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
In August, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey held at the July level of 92 million.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

22

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

90
20
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

80

70

60

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

22

MANUFACTURING

50
20

40

GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

30

CONSTRUCTION
\

""»**,
*••••»«»•••

20

I i i i hi i
1977

M979

1978

I I I I I 11 I I I
1977

1981

1980

1978

1979

* SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1980

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]
Service-pr educing Industrie s

Cloods-prc)ducing i ndustries

Period

Total
nonagricultural
employ- Total 2
ment

Trans- Whole- Finance,
Gover nment
insurportasale
ance, Services
tion
and
State
Non- Total
and
and
retail
Federal and
Total Durable durable
real
public trade
goods goods
local
estate
utilities
MaLnufaetui ing

Construction

1975
76, 945
1976__. _. 79, 382
1977
82, 471
1978___1 _ 86, 697
1979
89, 823
1980
90, 564

22, 600
23, 352
24, 346
25, 585
26, 461
25, 718

3, 525
3,576
3, 851
4,229
4,463
4, 399

18, 323
18, 997
19, 682
20, 505
21, 040
20, 300

10, 688
11, 077
11, 597
12,274
12, 760
12, 181

7,635
7,920
8,086
8,231
8,280
8,118

54, 345
56, 030
58, 125
61, 113
63, 363
64, 847

4,542
4,582
4, 713
4,923
5,136
5, 143

17, 060
17, 755
18, 516
19,542
20, 192
20, 386

4, 165
4,271
4,467
4,724
4,975
5,168

13, 892
14,551
15, 303
16, 252
17, 112
17, 901

2,748
2,733
2, 727
2, 753
2,773
2,866

11, 937
12, 138
12, 399
12,919
13, 174
13, 383

1980: Aug.__
Sept..
Oet___
Nov__
Dec.__

90, 219
90, 461
90, 668
90, 844
90, 949

25, 322
25, 445
25, 521
25, 629
25, 631

4,324
4,362
4,379
4,389
4,387

19, 990
20, 060
20, 110
20, 188
20, 175

11, 907
11, 968
12, 013
12, 090
12, 077

8,083
8,092
8,097
8,098
8,098

64,
65,
65,
65,
65,

897
016
147
215
318

5,126
5, 124
5, 129
5, 114
5, 118

20, 413
20, 450
20, 461
20, 464
20, 470

5,188
5,206
5,221
5,235
5,254

17, 981
18, 043
18, 807
18, 160
18, 240

2,808
2,784
2,795
2, 796
2,800

13, 381
13, 409
13, 454
13, 446
13, 436

1981: Jan.._
Feb___
Mar__
Apr___
May__
June__
July V.
Aug ^.

91, 091
91, 258
91, 347
91, 458
91, 564
91, 615
91, 966
92, 027

25, 647
25, 657
25, 705
25, 700
25, 705
25, 818
25, 947
25, 929

4,390
4,389
4,416
4,418
4,334
4,284
4,269
4,265

20, 174
20, 177
20, 191
20, 332
20, 414
20, 424
20, 547
20, 515

12, 084
12, 074
12, 099
12, 207
12, 254
12, 278
12, 339
12, 330

8,090
8,103
8,092
8,125
8, 160
8, 146
8,208
8, 185

65, 444
65, 601
65, 642
65, 758
65, 859
65, 797
66, 019
66, 098

5,124
5, 135
5,139
5,161
5, 148
5, 149
5, 161
5, 179

20, 529
20, 600
20, 635
20, 636
20, 714
20, 717
20, 794
20, 863

5,268
5,283
5,293
5,316
5,326
5,331
5,346
5,355

18, 300
18, 343
18, 371
18, 475
18, 540
18, 560
18, 653
18, 688

2,799
2, 795
2,781
2,767
2,779
2,781
2,777
2,742

13, 424
13, 445
13, 423
13, 403
13, 352
13, 259
13, 288
13, 271

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural
establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from
this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed
persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14



are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they
are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the workingage population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
employing establishments.
2 Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Averagpe gross
hourly <earnings

Aver age weekly 1lours
Total
private
nonagricultural l

Period

Manufa icturing
Total

Overtime

Total
private
nonagricultural *

Manufacturing
$3.82
4.09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

37.0
36.9
36.5
36. 1
36. 1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3

40.5
40.7
40.0
39.5
40. 1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7

3. 5

3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8

$3.70
3.94
4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6. 16
6.66

1980: Aug
_—
Sept...
Oct
Nov
Dec

35.2
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.3

39.5
39.6
39.7
39.8
39.9

2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.0

6.72
6.76
6.83
6.90
6.94

1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

35.3
35.2
35.3
35.4
35. 3
35.2
35.2
35.3

40.1
39.8
39.9
40.2
40. 3
40. 1
40.0
40. 1

3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.0
3.0

6.99
7.04
7.09
7.14
7. 18
7.23
7.27
7.34

Aug"

_.

3.8
3.3
2.6

3. 1

3. 1

Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index—tc)tal private
nonagric ultural 2
Percent cha nge from
a year earlier 4 5

Index, U )77 = 100

1977
dollars s

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1977
dollars

80.0
86.7
92.9
100.0
108.1
116.8
127.3

101.2
101.1
98.3
97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
93.5

6.4
6.2
8.0
8.4
7.2
7.6
9.0

-3. 1
-4.0

7.36
7.41
7.49
7.59
7.63

128.7
129.4
130.6
132.1
132.6

93.9
93.3
93.2
93.3
92.7

9.3
8.9
9.7
9.9
9.3

-3.0
-3.2
-2.6
-2.5
-2.8

7.69
7.74
7.80
7.90
7.95
7.99
8.02
8.09

133.8
135.0
135.8
136.7
137.7
138.4
139.0
140.6

92.8
92.7
92.8
93.0
93.1
92.9
92.2
92.6

10.0

-1 6
-1 3
-9
-' 3
-3
-5
-1 7
-1 4

69.8

741

ai
ao

9.9
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.0
8.9
9.2

3.1

-. 1
-2.8
-.7
1.4
1.0
.5

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly <3arnings
Period

Total prryate nonagricu Itural *
Current
dollars

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug*

$136.
145.
154.
163.
175.
189.
203.
219.
235.
236.
238.
241.
243.

90
39
76
53
45
00
70
91
10
54
63
10
57

244.98

246. 75
247. 81
250. 28
252. 76
253. 45
254. 50
255. 90
259. 10

Manufacturing

1977

$154.
166.
176.
190.
209.
228.
249.
269.
288.
290.
293.
297.
302.

71
46
80
79
32
90
27
34
62
72
44
35
08

308.
308.
311.
317.
320.
320.
320.
324.

37
05
22
58
39
40
80
41

30444

* Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
i Adjusted for interindustry employment "shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
8
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a
1977=100 base. Bevised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used
beginning 1978.
84-599 0 - 8 1 — 2




$221. 19
235. 89
249. 25
266. 08
283. 73
295. 65
318. 69
342. 99
367. 04
366. 73
374. 87
376. 57
379. 81
382. 13
397. 94
380. 02
392. 33
390. 29
388. 98
390. 19
397. 04
396. 73

Percent chiinge from a
year e arlier,
total prb/ate nonagricu Itural 5
Current
dollars

1Current dollars3

dollars 3
$198. 41
198. 35
190. 12
184. 16
186. 85
189. 00
189. 31
183. 41
172. 74
172. 53
172. 05
172. 09
171. 89
171. 19
171. 12
170. 20
170. 96
172. 06
171. 37
170. 92
169. 81
170. 69

Construction

Wholesale
and retail
trade

$106. 45

111.76

119. 02
126. 45
133. 79
142. 52
153. 64
164. 96
176. 46
177. 83
178. 80
180. 08
182. 25
182. 65
184 18
186. 12
187. 08
188. 63
189. 07
189. 71
190. 35
191. 64

7.5
6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8

ao

6.9
6.4
6.3
7.3
8.2
7.9
9.5
9.1
9.2
9.5
9.9
9.2
9.7
9.8

1977

dollars
41
—. 0
-41
-3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
-3.1
-5.8
-5.6
-5.6
-47
-3.9
-41
-2.0
-2. 1
-1.2
-.4
.1
-.3
-1.0
—. §

* Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
5
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour
of all i3ersons

Hours, of 2all
pers ons

Out put 1

Comp(*nsation
per hour 3

Unit labor
CO sts

Implici t price
defla tor 4

PriPriNonNonPriNonNonNonPrivate
Private NonPrivate
vate
farm
farm
farm
farm
vate
vate
farm
farm
business business business business business business business business business business business business
sector
sector
sector
sector sector sector
sector sector
sector sector
sector
sector

Period

1977== 100; qusirterly da1,a season ally adjusted

1968
1969

76.9
79.2

76.7
78.9

90.3
92.7

88.5
91.3

85.2
85.4

86.7
86.4

50.6
54.2

51.4
54.8

59.5
63.5

59.3
63.4

60.3
63.3

60.5
63.4

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

78.5
80.9
86.2
92.0
90.2

78.1
80.4
85.9
91.9
90.1

91.2
90.7
93.4
97.0
97.4

90.0
89.7
92.5
96.4
96.8

86. 1
89.2
92.4
94.8
92.7

86.7
89.6
93.0
95.3
93. 1

58.2
62.0
66.0
71.3
78.0

58.6
62.5
66.6
71.7
78.4

67.6
69.5
71.5
75.2
84.2

67.6
69.7
71.7
75.2
84.3

66.2
69. 1
71.5
75.3
82.4

66.4
69.4
71.4
74.1
81.6

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

88.5
94. 1
100.0
104.7
107.7

88.1
94. 0
100.0
104.9
107.7

93.4
96.1
100.0
104.9
108. 2

92.7
95.9
100.0
105. 1
108.7

94.8
97.9
100.0
99.8
99.5

95.0
98. 1
100.0
99. 8
99. 1

85.5
92.9
100.0
108.4
119.3

86.0
93.0
100.0
108.5
118.9

90.2
94.8
100.0
108.6
119.9

90.5
94.8
100.0
108.7
120.0

90.4
94.7
100.0
107.4
116.9

89.9
94.5
100.0
107.0
116.2

1980.

106.8

106.8

107.5

108.1

99.3

98.8

131.4

130.8

132.3

132.4

127.6

127.4

1979: III
IV

107.7
108.2

107.8
108.2

108.4
109. 1

109.0
109.4

99.4
99. 1

98.9
98.8

120.7
123.2

130.2
123.0

121.4
124.3

121.5
124.4

118.1
120.2

117.4
119.7

1980: I
II
III
IV

108.7
105.4
105.7
107.5

108.5
105.1
105.8
107.7

109.2
106.4
106.3
108.4

109.8
107. 1
106.9
108.8

99.5
99. 1
99.4
99. 1

98.9
98.2
99.0
99.0

126.4
130. 1
133. 1
135.9

126.0
129.4
132.3
135.4

127.0
131.3
133.9
137.0

127.4
131.8
133.6
136.8

123.0
126. 1
129. 1
132.2

122.9
126.3
128.8
131.9

109.5
109.3

109.7
109.2

109.2
10&2

109.7
109.0

100.3
101.0

100.0
100.2

139.7
143.2

139. 1
142.4

139.4
141.8

139. 1
142. 1

135. 4
137.6

135.3
137.6

1981: I
II

p....

Perceiit change ; quarterlyr data at jseasonal] y adjustec 1 annual rates
1968.._.
1969

5.1
2.9

5.3
2.9

1.7
2.6

2.0
3.2

3.3
.2

3.3
-.3

7.7
7.0

7.4
6.5

4.2
6.7

3.9
6.8

4.0
4.9

4.0
4.7

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
~1.9

-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.9
-1.9

-1.7
.5
3.0
3.9
.4

-1.4
—.4
3. 1
4.2
.4

.9
3.6
3.5
2.7
2.3

.3
3.3
3.7
2.5
-2.4

7.4
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

6.4
2.9
2.9
5.2
11.9

6.6
3. 1
2.8
4.9
12. 1

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.4
9.4

4.8
4.5
3.0
3.7
10.1

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

-1.9
6.3
6.3
4.7
2.8

-2.2
6.7
6.4
4.9
2.7

4. 1
2.9
4.0
4.9
3. 1

4.2
3.4
4.3
5.1
3.4

2.3
3.3
2. 1
—.2
-.3

2. 1
3.2
2.0
-.2
-.7

9.6
8.6
7.7
8.4
10. 1

9.6
8. 1
7.6
8.5
9.7

7.2
5. 1
5.5
8.6
10.4

7.4
4.7
5.5
8.7
10.4

9.7
4.7
5.6
7.4
8.8

10.3
5.1
5.8
7.0
8.6

-.8

-.9

-.6

-.6

_.2

10. 1

9.9

10.3

10.3

9.2

9.7

1979: III
IV

2.4
1.7

2.6
1.5

3.6
2.8

3.7
1.8

-1.2
-1.0

— ^
-1.1
—.2

8.9
8.6

8.6
9.7

10.2
9.8

9.7
9.9

8.2
7.4

8.5
7.8

1980: I
II
III
IV

1.8
-11.5
1.1
6.9

1.4
-12.1
2.9
7.1

.2
-9.9
-.2
8. 1

1.1
-9.5
7.3

1.6
-1.8
1.3
-1.1

.3
-2.9
3.6
—.2

10.7
12.3
9.5
8. 6

10.2
11.3
9.0
9.8

9.0
14.4
8. 1
9.8

9.9
14.6
5.3
10.1

9.7
10.5
9.8
9.9

11.3
11.3
8.2
10.0

7.9
-.9

7.9
-1.9

3.1
-3.7

3.5
-2.6

4.6
2.8

4.3
-.7

11.8
10.4

11.6
9.6

6.9
7.3

7.0
8.8

10.0
6.6

11.0
6.9

_

1980

1981: I
II *— .

>7

1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including
hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social
insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,
and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

16



* Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original
data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexts
shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent in August following an increase of 0.3 percent in July. The index for August was
7.5 percent above the year earlier level. (Note revised series.)
INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)
180

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

UTILITIES

180

AND MINI NG PRODU CTION

A"^-^

"^\--0
160

IrfO

XX
UTILITIES
140

140

120

T>0

S\ t

\
t - *^,
1

/
1977

1978

1979

1980

^v ^

V

,~.^^^^/ *
~S*
„+**

V

MINING

J

1981
100

M i l l

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1 1 1 1 1

1977

i iMi1 iiiii M i iii iiiii
1978

1979

i i i i i i i i ii
1980

1981

PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

90

120

70
i I i )I
1977

1977

1978

1980

I I II I I I I II
1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1967
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

Total in dustrial
produ<stion
Percent
Period
Index,
change
1967=
from
100
year
earlier
100. 00
proportion
—. 4
129.3
-8.9
117.8
10.8
„„ 130. 5
5.9
138. 2
5.7
146. 1
4. 4
152.5
-3.6
147.0

[Seasonally adjusted]
Indu stry produiction indc?xes, 1967 = 100
Miinufaeturi ng
Total

Durable

Nondurable

Mining

87. 95
129.4
116. 3
130.3
138.4
146. 8
153. 6
146. 7

51. 98
125.7
109. 3
122.3
130.0
139. 7
146. 4
136.7

S5. 97
134.6
126. 4
141.8
150. 5
156. 9
164.0
161.2

6.86
115.3
112. 8
114.2
118. 2
124.0
125.5
132.7

5.69
143. 7
146.0
151.7
156. 5
161. 4
166.0
168.3

87. 1
73. 4
81. 1
82.7
85. 6
87. 4
80.0

83.8
72. 9
79.5
81.9
84. 4
85. 7
79. 1

.
_

_ _

-6. 5
-5.4
-4.0
-2.0
— 1.4

141.2
143. 9
146.5
148.9
150.4

129.9
132. 1
135.7
139. 2
140.3

157. 6
161.0
162. 1
163. 0
165.0

129. 6
130 7
132. 1
135. 1
138.6

172. 6
170.6
167.7
169. 9
167.9

75.0
76.8
78. 4
80.5
81.4

75.8
77. 0
78.2
79.3
79. 8

151.4
151.8
152. 1
151.9
152.7
152.9
153.4
152.8

1. 0
-.7
.0
2. 5
6.2
8. 1
9.3
7.5

151. 1
151.2
151. 6
152.0
152. 8
152.5
153.0
152. 5

141.0
140. 8
142. 1
142. 5
143. 5
143. 1
143.5
142.4

165. 6
166. 2
165.3
165. 9
166.4
166. 0
166.9
167. 0

140.4
143. 1
143. 2
135.2
135.4
141. 0
145. 6
145.2

167.6
166.4
167.8
167. 6
170.7
172. 5
171.3
170. 3

82. 1
82. 3
82. 1
81. 1
81. 2
81.4
81.7
81. 2

80.0
79.8
79. 8
79.8
80. 0
79.7
79. 8
79. 2

1
Output as percent of capacity.
8
Annual data are averages of four
8

monthly indexes.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of
quarterly data.




Utilities

Capacit y utilizati< JTL rate, p ercent *
Mi mufacturi ng
Materials
(Federal
WharReserve Federal Comton
series) Reserve merce
2
series
series
series 3

142. 2
144.4
146. 6
149.2
150.4

1980: Aug
Sept. _._
Oct__
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb __
Mar
Apr
May_
June.
July v^
Aug

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

83
77
81
83
84
83
78

87.0
76.5
82.3
84.6
87. 3
88.8
83. 1

76

79. 9

78

83. 5

78

84. 5

78

84. 3

NOTE.—Data revised beginning January 1980 for Federal Reserve series and
beginning 1974 for Wharton series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of
Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts
Final I roducts
3

Coiisumer go ods

Period
Total

Equip>ment

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total

Interm ediate
prod ucts

Total

Business

Materials

Construction
supplies

Total

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

1967 proportion

47.82

2 7. 68

7.89

19. 79

SO. 14

IS. 63

IS. 89

6.42

89.29

12.28

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Aug
Sept.

106.3
115.7
124.4
125. 1
118.2
127. 6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
143.3
144. 1
145.7
147.4
147.8
147. 8
148.2
149. 0
149.9
151.3
151.5
151. 6
151. 1

114.7
124.4
131. 5
128.9
124. 0
137. 1
145.3
149. 1
150.8
145. 4
142. 9
144.5
146.3
148. 1
147. 1
146.9
147.8
148.3
148.9
150.7
150.4
150.0
148. 5

118.8
133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141. 9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
128.3
133.5
139. 0
143.4
141.3
140. 1
141. 2
143.6
144. 3
147. 3
148.0
146.8
141.4

113. 1
120. 6
125.6
126. 3
125. 1
135. 2
141.9
145. 1
148.8
148.9
148.7
148.9
149. 3
150. 0
149.3
149.6
150. 5
150. 1
150.7
152. 1
151.4
151. 2
151.4

94. 7
103.8
114.5
120. 0
110.2
114.6
123. 0
132.8
142.2
145.2
143.7
143.6
144.8
146.5
148.8
149. 1
148.7
150.0
151.4
152. 1
153.0
153.9
154.6

104. 1
118.0
134. 2
142.4
128. 2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171. 3
173. 2
171. 1
170.7
171.9
173. 9
177. 1
177.7
177.5
179.3
181.0
182. 0
183.5
184. 5
185.4

116.7
126. 5
137. 2
135.3
123. 1
137. 2
145. 1
154. 1
160.5
151.9
148.9
151. 2
152.4
153.4
155.4
157.5
157.7
157. 1
156.3
156. 1
155.0
155. 3
155. 1

116.8
128.4
139. 8
134.5
116. 3
132. 6
140.6
151.7
158. 0
140. 9
134. 1
138. 5
140. 6
142.6
145. 2
148.4
148.9
149.0
147. 9
146.5
143. 6
143.2
142.9

111.3
122. 3
133.9
132.4
115.5
131.7
138. 6
148. 3
156.4
147.6
138.8
142.5
145. 9
150. 1
152. 2
153.8
154. 3
154.4
152. 9
153.4
154.0
155. 0
154.3

119.5
125.2
128.3
125.5
125. 5
129. 1
132.9
135. 4
137.9
137.7
138. 2
137.2
135.6
137.0
137.7
138.5
138. 5
137.7
132.6
133.5
137.7
140. 1
138.9

_
_

Oct

Nov__
Dec
1981: Jan___
Feb
Mar_ _
Apr
May
June__ _
July p*-.Aug _

_
__
_

_
-

- _ _
_
_

__
_

___

..

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
D arable m anufactu res

Primary7 metals
Period
Total

1967 proportion

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Aug
Sept. _
Oct..
Nov
_
Dec _ _
1981: Jan__
Feb
Mar
Apr
May_
June.
July *__
Aug *___ _

Iron
and
steel

6.57

4. 21

100.2
112. 1
126.7
123. 1
96.4
109.7
111. 1
119.9
121.3
102.3
86.9
90.6
99. 6
113.2
111. 5
114. 1
„ 114.5
114. 9
110. 6
111.9
107. 2
108.3
_ 107.5

96. 1
107. 1
122. 3
119.8
95. 8
104.8
103.8
113. 2
113.2
92.4
76.0
80.4
92.0
107.6
103.0
108.7
108.4
108.0
103.4
105.6
98.5
99.7

NOTE.—Data revis ed beginning January 1980.

18



Fabricated
metal
products
5.98
103. 5
112. 1
124. 7
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141. 6
148. 5
134. 1
124.8
128. 8
131.7
132.3
135.7
135.8
137.6
139. 2
139.5
138.4
139. 2
139.4
138.4

Nontrical
machin—

ery

Electrical
machinery

Nomlurable naanufaet ures

Transp<Drtation
equip ment
Total

Motor
vehicles
and

Lumber
and
products

Ap-

parel
products

Print- Cheming
icals
Foods
and
and
pub- prodlishing ucts

parts

9. 15

8.05

9.27

4.50

1.64

8.31

4. 72

100.2
116. 0
133.7
140. 1
125. 1
134. 5
143.6
153. 6
163. 7
162.8
159.6
159.5
160. 9
162.9
166.9
167.3
168.3
169. 2
169.7
172. 1
173. 8
176.0
177.2

107.7
122.2
143. 1
143.8
116. 5
134.8
145.4
159. 4
175.0
172.8
166.8
167.4
169.8
173.0
175. 1
177.6
174.9
177.4
178.8
179.9
180. 1
181.9
181. 3

97.9
108.2
118.3
108. 7
97.4
111. 1
122.2
132. 5
135.4
116.9
108.5
113.3
118.3
121. 8
120.4
117. 4
116. 1
119.5
121.3
123. 7
123.4
120. 1
115. 0

118. 6
135.8
148.8
128.2
111. 1
142.0
161. 1
169. 9
159.9
119. 0
104. 1
113.7
123.2
129. 2
125.7
120.0
119. 9
127. 1
130. 7
136.4
137.5
131. 0
121.0

113.8
120. 8
126. 0
116. 2
107.6
123. 2
131.2
136. 3
136. 9
119.3
120.2
121. 6
121.4
123. 7
123. 6
127.4
126. 2
125. 6
126.3
126. 2
122. 5
121. 3

104.7
109. 4
117.3
114. 3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
125. 5
123. 5
121. 7
125.7
122.7
123.8
121. 6
120.2
121.6
122. 6
121. 1

107. 1
112. 7
118.2
118.2
113. 3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139. 6
141.7
140.9
142. 5
142. 1
143.0
143.9
144. 8
142.7
141. 6
141.3
143.3
144.4
144.8

7.74
125. 9
143. 6
154.5
159.4
147. 2
170. 9
185. 7
197. 4
211. 8
207. 1
198.2
208.2
209.4
211.7
220. 5
218.9
219.8
218.5
219. 8
220.6
219.7
221.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

8. 75

112. 8
116.8
120.9
124. 0
123.4
133.0
138. 8
142. 7
147. 5
149.6
148.7
149.9
151. 1
151. 6
151.0
151.9
152. 5
152.4
151. 9
152.2
150.8
151.6

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constructio n contracts2

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Resid ential
Total

Total 1

Commercial and
industrial

New
housing
units

Other

Federal,
State,
and
local

Total value
index
(1972=
100)

Commercial and
industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Billions of doll ars

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

___

139. 2
135. 9
151, 1
173.8
205.6
230.8
230.3

50.4
46.5
60. 5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3

100. 9
95. 1
112. 0
135.7
159.7
181.7
174.9

23. 8
20.8
19.9
22. 5
29.6
39.9
43.8

40. 6
34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1

26.7
27.8
31.5
32. 2
36.7
42.8
43.9

38.3
40.9
39. 1
38.2
45.9
49. 1
55.4

216.4
217.9
224. 6
228.9
234.3
245. 4
259.0
254.5
250.3
248.9
239.7
238.7
235. 1

161.5
163.5
169. 1
174.9
180.9
187. 9
193.9
193.2
189.6
192.5
188.2
186. 9
185. 1

42.4
41.8
41.6
41.5
42.5
45. 1
48.3
48.5
48.7
48.9
47.9
46. 7
50.0

53. 1
56.3
60.7
64. 2
68. 1
70.4
74.2
75. 1
73.0
72.9
67.7
64.2
60.5

75.6
79.3
84.5
89.8
95.6
98.9
100.7
99.7
96.3
98.3
94.2
91.4
87.9

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
* F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and
beginning 1971 for floor space.

840
555
592
739
977

1,059

898

Seasonally
Seasonally adjusted
adjusted
annual
rates

Seasonally j adjusted at inual rates

1980: J u l y _ _ _
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov. __ .
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May v .. __
June p
July ._ __
Aug*

103.0
101.9
121.0
153.6
174. 1
185.6
161.8

43. 6
42.3
43. 1
43.6
42.8
43.9
44.9
45.0
44.7
45.3
46. 1
46.8
47.2

148
192
163
167
205
193
192
177
183
172
160
170
153
156

54.9
54.4
55.5
54.0
53.4
57.6
65.2
61.3
60.6
56.4
51.5
51.7
50. 1

857
824
822
865

1,034
1,169

944

1,013
1,080
930
994

1,015
852
924

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New priv,ate homes

N ew private lousing unit s

Period

Units started, by type of stru cture
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1 unit

2, 045. 3
1, 337. 7
1, 160. 4
1, 537. 5
1, 987. 1
2, 020. 3
1, 745. 1
1, 292. 2

1, 132. 0
888. 1
892. 2
1, 162. 4
1, 450. 9
1, 433. 3
1, 194. 1
852.2

2-4
units

118.3
68. 1
64.0
85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5

795.0
381.6
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5

Units
completed

1, 819. 5
1, 074. 4
939.2
1, 296. 2
1, 690. 0
1, 800. 5
1, 551. 8
1, 190. 6

5 or more
units

Units
authorized

2, 100. 5
1, 728. 5
1, 317. 2
1, 377. 2
1, 657. 1
1, 867. 5
1, 870. 8
1, 501. 6

634
519
549
646
819
817
709
530

1,429
1,254
1,287
1,274
1,373
1,252
1, 389
1,362
1,519
1, 273
1, 375
1,294

616
563
549
560
514
523
500
507
451
478
406
422
362

Homes
sold

Homes for
sale at
end of 1
period
418
346
313
353
402
414

3398
336

Vacancy
rate for
rental
housing
units
(percent)2
5.8
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4

Seasonally adjusted arinual rates
1980: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov__
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar_. _ _ _
Apr.__
May.
June v
July 9
Aug v
1
2

1,411
1,482
1,519
1,550
1,535
1,660
1,215
1,297
1,332
1, 158
1,039
1,049
937

971

1,032
1,009
1,019

974
993
791
838
897
764
688
707
591

133
140
121
143
131
149
112
105
92
106
88
85
84

307
310
389
388
430
518
312
354
343
288
263
257
262

Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quart er. Series beginning 1979 not
strictly comparable with earlier data.
rictly
3
New series beginning March 1979.




1,355
1,518
1,351
1,366
1,249
1,214
1, 165
1,153
1, 186
1, 167

963
913
863

331
335
334
337
336
329
334
325
327
322
311
304
300

5.7
5.0

5. 2
5.0

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places;
data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places,
„
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE
Business sales were unchanged in July while inventories rose $5 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales
rose 1A percent in August following a % percent decline in July.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
600
550
500

TOTAL BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

450
400

350

300

TOTAL BUSINESS
SALES

250 -

50 -

200

1977

1981

RATIO*
1.80

150

1.70

.INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

1.60

RETAIL

1.50
1.40
1.30

100 I 1 1 1 1 I
1977

1.20
1978

1980

1979

1981

1977

TOTAL BUSINESS
i i > ii i i i i i I i i i i
1979
1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Rejtail

Who lesale
2

Iriventories3

Sales
O_ I _ _ 2
9

bales

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Total b usiness1
Period

1980

Inventories3

I
Invenbaleszn tories3
CJ

Trt-f n 1

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

TVvf nl

Inventoi•y- sales
ratio 4

NonDurTotal
able durable busigoods goods ness1
stores stores

Retail

Mill ions of d ollars, seasonally adjusted

1973
1974
1975 __
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: July
Aug
_
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec_ .
1981: Jan— _
Feb___
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julyv* . _
Aug

153, 412
177, 625
182, 230
204, 277
229, 623
258, 724
294, 733
320, 540
315, 633
317, 906
327, 758
335, 873
339, 049
343, 752
349, 018
350, 334
349, 898
350, 923
349, 245
354, 442
354, 393

233, 327
285, 807
288, 375
318, 544
350, 678
395, 252
444, 224
475, 202
466, 828
468, 943
471, 500
473, 617
474, 884
475, 202
478, 451
484, 069
485, 467
487, 060
490, 254
494, 226
499, 183

38, 014
47, 748
46, 623
50, 694
55, 987
64, 715
76, 264
86, 991
85, 810
86, 889
90, 223
93, 282
93, 901
96, 591
98, 967
98, 016
96, 486
97, 577
96, 217
95, 564
97, 194

45, 372 42, 461
56, 948 45, 083
56, 697 49, 013
64, 078 54, 784
72, 311 60, 435
83, 492 67, 057
93, 817 74, 529
105, 529 79, 721
99, 618 79, 491
101, 920 79, 829
102, 953 80, 620
104, 293 81, 552
105, 203 82, 764
105, 529 83, 443
104, 909 85, 463
106, 066 86, 810
105, 539 87, 608
105, 591 85, 855
105, 568 85, 501
107, 2,10 87, 384
107, 516 87, 131
87, 690

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).
2 Monthly average for year and total for month.
* Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

20



14, 409
14, 118
15, 247
18, 150
20, 724
23, 313
25, 401
24, 827
25, 071
24, 593
25, 094
25, 293
26, 007
25, 983
27, 075
28, 328
28, 429
26, 356
26, 536
27, 532
27, 568
27, 832

28, 052
30, 965
33, 766
36, 633
39, 711
43, 744
49, 128
54, 894
54, 420
55, 236
55, 526
56, 259
56, 757
57, 460
58, 388
58, 482
59, 179
59, 499
58, 965
59, 852
59, 563
59, 858

63, 237 28, 418
71, 067 32, 861
71, 744 33, 356
79, 273 37, 841
89, 210 42, 970
101, 681 49, 898
108, 835 53, 274
111, 694 51, 853
110, 003 51, 249
110, 283 51, 675
111, 710 51, 738
113, 106 52, 066
112, 639 52, 209
111, 694 51, 853
111, 790 52, 234
113, 507 52, 374
113, 404 51, 791
113, 963 52, 306
115, 426 53, 529
117, 307 54, 880
119, 795 56, 199

34, 819
38, 206
38, 388
41, 432
46, 240
51, 783
55, 561
59, 841
58, 754
58, 608
59, 972
61, 040
60, 430
59, 841
59, 556
61, 133
61,613
61, 657
61, 897
62, 427
63, 596

1.41
1.45
1.57
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.48
1.48
1.44
1.41
1.40
1. 38
1.37
1. 38
1.39
1. 39
1. 40
1. 39
1.41

1.40
1. 48
1.44
1.38
1. 39
1.42
1.43
1.38
1.38
1. 38
1.39
1.39
1.36
1.34
1.31
1.31
1.29
1. 33
1.35
1.34
1. 37

sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
Manufacturers* inventories and orders rose in July, while shipments fell. According to advance data, durable goods
shipments and new orders fell in August.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
320
280 HNVENTC)RIES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
180 "SHIPME NTS
1 zn

-

^*r—-"
-

240

-

TOTAL
^ \ ^ - - ^-

200

19H

^

inn

^

—
,*—-"T

-

=*——-—-

^^^
——""^^——"*"

" °" ""
_

TOTAL

-

1 An

-

DURABLE GC ODS
\ .-'v^

on

r
An

*"*

:;^.S^y*-*-*"*

"~

-

GOODS

-

I l i l l l l l l l l iiiiihiiii i i iI 1 1 i i i ii M I I I I I I I I I
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
180 =NEW OR DERS
••^n
160

r-

x

Lx

120

y

—
-

^

60

;: —.— -

f\
X

_-,*-/" "

-

Ilillllllll

_

1.8

-

40
11I 1 1

l i i i i Ii i l ii i i i l i l i i i i i i i i i i h i i i i

INVENTC RY-SHIPM ENTS RAT 10

1.4

1979

iiiiihiiii

RAT O*
LI

-

-

1.6

Mill

Ilillllllll iiiiihiiii
1980
I 1981

1?

^\^

-v/V" ^

_

iiililiiiii iiililiiiii 11111J 111 11
1977

1978

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

i
Total

^
Iiililiiiii
. 1980

_
iiililiiiii
1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufa(iturers' sh ipments l Manufadturers5 inv entories2

Period

__

OA

x» "*" 1_^"_"I^,_.*

-v,^"

NONDURA 3LE GOODS

I 1 l 1 l I l l iM i i i i i h i i i i
1978
1977

~\
NONE)URABLE GOO 3S

[—*""*

-

-*S~^~^

80

,

-

—

TOTAL

DURABLE GO ODS
\

^

_

Ilillllllll

x\^-^—*^vy^
\

""~" ^

DURABLE GOODS

—

/tn

140

-

.---""

ion

^s--'" —
\

\
NONDURABLE

._•*-"*""*

rr"""C-~

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Mannifaeturers; new ore ers l

Durab e goods
ManufacCapital
Non- turers'
Nongoods
durable unfilled
Total Durable durable Total
indusgoods
Total
goods orders3
goods
tries.
nondefense
Millions of dollsirs, season ally adju?ted

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio4

84, 794
86, 595
98, 802
113,201
126, 953
143, 941
153, 828

44, 228
43, 656
50, 689
59, 267
67, 848
75, 803
78, 003

40, 567
42, 939
48, 113
53, 934
59, 104
68, 138
75, 826

157, 792
159, 934
175, 193
189, 157
210, 079
241, 572
257, 979

101, 739
102, 874
112, 581
121, 646
137, 712
161, 390
171, 603

56, 053
57, 060
62, 612
67, 511
72, 367
80, 182
86, 376

87, 268
85, 149
99, 543
115, 027
131, 612
147, 576
155, 059

46, 853
42, 019
51, 398
61, 076
72, 358
79, 353
79, 264

12, 673
11,011
12, 799
15, 276
19, 450
22, 510
22, 548

40, 415
43, 130
48, 145
53, 951
59, 254
68, 223
75, 795

191, 102
173, 829
182, 499
204, 814
261, 082
304, 963
319, 729

1.65
1.84
1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
1.65

1980: July.. 150, 332
Aug.. 151, 188
Sept.. 156, 915
Oct... 161, 039
Nov.. 162, 384
Dec__ 163, 718

75, 554
75, 485
79, 735
82, 518
83, 229
83, 482

74, 778
75, 703
77, 180
78, 521
79, 155
80, 236

257, 207
256, 740
256, 837
256, 218
257, 042
257, 979

170, 391
170, 540
170, 163
169, 781
170, 275
171, 603

86, 816
86, 200
86, 674
86, 437
86, 767
86, 376

154, 815
152, 657
159, 496
161, 924
163, 020
166, 900

80, 209
76, 785
82, 162
83, 364
83, 971
86, 577

23, 524
21, 283
22, 518
21, 625
23, 350
24, 664

74, 605
75, 872
77, 334
78, 560
79, 049
80, 323

310, 977
312, 446
315, 027
315, 912
316, 547
319, 729

1.71
1. 70
1.64
1.59
1.58
1.58

1981: J n . 164, 588
a..
Feb___ 165, 508
Mar__ 165, 804
Apr... 167, 491
May.. 167, 527
June__ 171, 494
July.. 170, 068
Aug *_

83, 329
84, 215
85, 058
86, 327
86, 664
88, 770
87, 063
86, 471

81, 259
81, 293
80, 746
81, 164
80, 863
82, 724
83, 005

261, 752
264, 496
266, 524
267, 506
269, 260
269, 709
271, 872^

174, 223
175, 620
176, 229
177, 123
177, 635
178, 676
180, 855

87, 529
88, 876
90, 295
90, 383
91, 625
91, 033
91, 017

165, 423
166, 987
167, 361
168, 584
169, 340
170, 913
172, 355

84, 208
85, 446
86, 729
87, 180
88, 164
88, 303
89, 440
87, 221

24, 823
21, 185
24, 460
24, 723
23, 865
23, 230
24, 226
24, 813

81, 216
81, 541
80, 632
81, 404
81, 176
82, 610
82, 915

320, 566
322, 045
323, 602
324, 694
326, 508
325, 918
328, 206

1.59
1.60
1.61
1.60
1.61
1.57
1. 60

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1
Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2 Book value, end of period.
* End of period.
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly




shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments
for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Q1

PRODUCER PRICES

PRICES

In August, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer roods rose 0.2 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.3 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.6 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
280

140

120

100

100
1981

1973
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; month!?JT data s easonal [y ad jus ted]
]?inishec goods
In1bermedi ate
Enaterials
Total
finished
CapiFoods AfV.
conUtntal sumer Total and l er
feeds
equip- goods
ment
123. 5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1
141. 0 149.3 162.9 200. 2 159. 5
162. 5 163.6 180. 0 195. 3 178.6
173.4 169.7 189. 1 185. 3 189.4
184.6 180.7 201. 5 190.5 202. 3
199. 2 194. 9 215.6 203. 1 216.5
216.5 217. 9 242. 2 226. 1 244. 4
239. 8 248.9 280.3 252.6 282.3
243.6 254.3 283. 7 266.0 285.0
243. 9 255. 1 285.2 267. 9 286.4
248. 1 257. 1 287. 6 281.8 288.0
249.7 258.9 290.2 286. 1 290. 5
250. 8 259.7 293. 5 270. 1 295.2
253.7 262. 7 297. 4 270.6 299.4
256. 1 264.6 298.5 260. 1 301.3
258. 0 268. 1 301.6 253. 4 305.2
260. 4 270. 2 304.6 254.4 308.4
262.4 269.9 305.9 254.5 309. 8
264.3 271. 3 306.7 253. 2 310.7
266. 2 272. 2 307. 9 252. 0 312. 1
267. 7 272. 9 309. 2 253.2 313.4

F inished goods excludin g
consumer fc ods

Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug_
1

Crud e materials

Cons umer g oods

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
180. 0
189. 4
191.8
190. 2
192. 1
216. 2
247. 9
259.2
276.8
278.7
282.8
283. 3
275.9
272.9
263.8
258. 4
262.4
256.6
263.7
264.5
262.0

Total
Confinished sumer
goods foods Total

127.9
147.5
163.4
_ 170.6
181.7
195.9
217. 7
247.0
252. 0
252.7
255. 1
256.9
257.8
260.8
262.8
266.0
268. 1
268. 3
. 269.8
271. 0
_ _ 271.8

146.4
166.9
181.0
180.4
189.9
207.2
226. 2
239.5
247.0
248. 3
250. 0
250. 8
250.9
251. 1
249.5
251. 9
251. 6
251.0
252.2
255. 9
256.4

120. 1
139.3
156. 2
166. 1
177. 7
190. 7
213. 3
247. 8
252. 0
252. 5
255.2
257. 3
258.4
262. 3
265.4
268. 8
271. 7
272.2
273.8
274. 1
275.0

Total

Dur-

Nondurable

118.6
138.6
153.1
162.6
174.3
186. 7
211.5
250.8
255.2
255.7
257.8
260. 1
261. 2
265.3
268. 7
272. 6
275. 7
275.6
277.0
276.8
277.5

115.4
125.9
138. 2
144. 5
152.8
166. 9
183.2
206. 2
209. 4
209. 1
212.3
213. 3
212.9
213.6
214. 7
214. 0
215. 7
217. 5
218.6
218. 1
219.4

120. 5
146. 8
163. 0
174.8
189.3
200. 0
231.3
283.9
289. 1
290. 3
291.4
294. 8
297.4
303. 9
309.0
316. 3
320.4
319. 0
320.7
320.6
320.8

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22



Total

174.0
196. 1
196.9
202. 7
209. 2
234. 4
274. 3
304. 6
317. 5
321. 8
327.2
330.7
328. 1
328. 8
332.4
328. 1
332.8
330. 1
334. 1
335.9
333.9

NOTE.—Data revised for April 1981.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Other

162.5
208.9
206. 9
228. 5
245. 0
272.3
330. 0
401.0
403. 6
413.0
421. 0
431.2
438. 9
447.8
479. 0
477. 2
483. 5
487.4
484.8
488. 5
487.9

CONSUMER PRICES
In August, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted (also 0.8 percent
unadjusted). Food and beverage prices were up 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were up 0.1
percent, not seasonally adjusted.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
UNADJUSTED

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

200

180

180

140

120

1975

1976

1980

1979

1978

1981

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967== 100; HHmthly diita seaso nally adj usted, 63[cept as iloted]
Tr,ansportai ion

Housing

Financ- Appare
Food
ing,
All
and
and
Home taxes,
items * bever- Total i purand upkeep Total l
ages
chase insurance
NSA
NSA
NSA

Period

4

Rel. imp. .. 100.0

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977__. __
1978
_
1979
1980
1980: Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
Dec__
1981: Jan__
Feb__
Mar_
Apr__
May_
JuneJuly..
Aug__
1
2

133. 1
147.7
161. 2
170.5
181. 5
195. 4
217.4
246.8
249.4
251. 7
253.9
256.2
258.4
260.5
263. 2
265. 1
266.8
269.0
271.3
274. 4
276.5

18.3
139. 5
158.7
172. 1
177.4
188.0
206. 3
228.5
248.0
250. 9
255.0
257.2
260.2
262. 6
262. 6
263.4
264.5
264. 5
263.9
264.5
266.7
268.7

Gasoline

Medica
care

Energy 2

NSA

10.3

12.0

4.9

19.0

3.6

5.9

4.7

10.8

41. 6

49. 6

133.7 132.7
148.8 142. 7
164.5 160.3
174.6 168.4
186.5 179.5
202. 8 196.7
227. 6 223. 1
263.3 254.3
265.6 258. 1
267.4 261. 5
270.8 265.5
274. 1 267.3
277.4 267.2
279. 5 266. 2
281.3 263.0
282. 8 261. 1
284.8 260.7
288. 4 263.0
291.7 266. 6
296. 5 271.4
299.4 272. 6

160. 6
181. 1
201. 9
212.8
227. 2
257.8
308. 9
396. 0
393. 6
393.5
404. 7
416. 9
429.4
435.2
437. 1
441. 1
447. 1
458.3
467. 2
480.0
488. 3

126.8
136.2
142.3
147.6
154.2
159.6
166. 6
178.4
179.4
180.9
182. 1
182.8
182. 8
182. 5
184.0
185.8
186. 1
185.7
185. 8
186.8
188.3

123.8
137.7
150.6
165.5
177. 2
185.5
212. 0
249.7
250.4
254. 0
256.6
259. 9
262.4
267.0
273.4
275. 9
275.7
276.5
277.2
279. 4
281. 1

111. 1
117.5
127. 6
135.7
142. 9
153.8
166.0
179. 3
182. 6
184.9
183. 3
183.5
183.3
183.5
183. 3
182.5
185. 7
190. 1
192. 2
193.3
193.4

118. 1
159.9
170.8
177. 9
188.2
196.3
265.6
369. 1
368.4
368. 0
371.3
373. 6
377.3
391.5
417. 5
427. 1
421. 0
414. 8
408.7
404. 8
403. 6

137.7
150.5
168. 6
184.7
202. 4
219. 4
239.7
265. 9
268.5
271. 0
272. 9
274.6
276.2
279.2
281.7
284. 1
286.6
289. 1
292. 1
295. 9
299.6

123.5
159. 7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220. 4
275. 9
361. 1
370.7
370. 1
368.0
366. 1
370.4
381.7
401. 1
409. 3
409.8
411. 3
414. 0
415. 7
416. 1

139. 1
152. 1
166. 6
180.4
194. 3
210.9
234. 2
270.3
272.7
274.6
277.9
281. 5
285.5
288.0
290. 3
292. 6
295.4
299.6
303. 1
308. 5
312. 1

128.5
138.5
150.5
160. 8
170.6
180. 9
194. 1
211. 6
213.2
215.7
217. 4
219. 1
220.8
221. 9
223. 7
225. 1
226. 9
228. 3
229. 9
232. 6
234. 3

45.5

Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and gasoline,
motor oil, coolant, etc.
J Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
* Kelative importance, December 1980.




New
cars

All items
less food,
energy,
Serv- and home
ices purchase
and
finance 3

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban
wage earners and clerical workers.
ne\
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
Percenl change from pre ceding
illy adju sted 1
period ; season!
Consume»r goods

Period

Percent change from 3 nlonths
earlie r; season ally adjtisted
annual rates
Consumejr goods

Total
finished
goods

Percen fc change
from 6 raonths
earlie r; season ally adjiisted
annua rates

Capital
equipExclud- ment
ing
Foods
foods

Capital Total
finequipished
Exclud- ment
goods
ing
Foods
foods

Total
finished
goods

Consumesr goods
Capital
equipExclud- ment
Foods
ing
foods

3.8
11.8
18.3
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12. 8
11.8

8.0
22.5
13.0
5.5
-2.5
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5

2.0
7.4
20.5
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2

2.0
5.3
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4

1980: Aug__
Sept
Oct..
Nov
Dec.

1.2
.3
.9
.7
.4

2.7
.5
.7
.3
.0

.6
.2
.8
.9
.4

1.0
.1
1.7
.6
.4

16.0
13.5
10.2
8.0
8.3

31.2
31.0
16.6
6.3
4.3

11.0
7.5
6.6
7.9
8.9

12.4
9.9
12. 1
10.4
11.8

12.8
11. 0
11.4
12.0
10.9

14.6
13.7
18.4
18. 1
16.9

12.2
9.8
8.7
9.5
8.2

12.2
10.4
10.7
11.4
10.9

1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
• May
June..
July
Aug

1.2
.8
1.2
.8
.1
.6
.4
.3

.1
—.6
1.0
-. 1
-.2
.5
1.5
.2

1.6
1.3
1.5
1. 1
-.0
.5
— .1
.3

1.2
.9
.7
.9
.8
.7
.7
.6

9.2
9.5
13.3
11.7
8.6
5.8
4.4
5.3

1.8
-2.1
1.6
.8
2.4
.5
7.0
8.9

12.2
13.9
18.6
16.6
10.7
6.6
1.6
2.8

9.3
10.7
12.0
11. 0
10.2
10. 1
9.2
8.3

9.7
8.8
10.8
10.5
9. 1
9.5
8.0
7.0

8.9
2.0
2.9
1.3
.2
1.0
3.9
5.6

9.4
10. 9
13.7
14.4
12.3
12.5
8.9
6.7

10.7
10.5
11.9
10.2
10.4
11. 1
10. 1
9.3

1972
1973
1974...
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980.

—_
-—

»Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Based on revised data for April 1981.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES

Period

[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted *]
All
Tra nsporta tion
Bousing •
items
less
FiApfood,
Food
nanc- parel
Med- En- 3 Serv- energy,
All
and
Home ing,
ices
ical ergy
and
items 2 bever- Total 2 pur- taxes, and Total 2 New Gaso- care
cars
line
uphome
ages
chase and keep
purchase
insurand
ance
finance 4
NSA
NSA NSA

1973
8.8
1974
12.2
1975
_ 7.0
4.8
1976
6.8
1977
1978
_ 9.0
13.3
1979
1980
_ 12.4
1980: Aug._
.8
Sept. 1.0
Oct__
1.0
Nov..
1. 1
Dec.. 1.0
1981: Jan__
.7
Feb.. 1.0
Mar._
.6
.4
Apr
May.
.7
June.
.7
July. 1.2
Aug..
.8
1

18.5
12.0
6.2
.8
7.6
11.6
10.0
10. 1
1.8
1.6
.9
1.2
.9
0
.3
.4
0
-.2
.2
.8
.7

3.4
6.9
13.4 10. 1
7.5 10.0
5.4
4.3
8.4
7.6
9.9 11. 2
15. 2 15.8
13.7 11.4
.3
1.7
1.3
.7
1.3
1.5
1.2
.7
1.2 -.0
4.
.8
.6 -1. 2
.5 -.7
.7 -.2
1.3
.9
1.4
1. 1
1.8
1.6
1.0
.4

11. 1
14. 6
7.6
1.6
11.2
14.7
27.5
23.3
-1.5
-.0
2.8
3.0
3.0
1.4
.4
.9
1.4
2.5
1.9
2.7
1.7

4.4
8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
.7
.8
.7
.4
0
—.2
.8
1.0
.2
—.2
.1
.5
.8

4. 5
13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
.9
1.4
1,0
1.3
1. 0
1.8
2.4
.9
-.1
.3
.3
.8
.6

Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted.
2 Includes items not shown separately.
3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and gasoline,
motor oil, coolant, etc.
* Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.

24



1.3 19.7
11.5 20.6
7.3 11.0
2.6
4.8
7.2
4.9
8.5
6.2
52.2
7.4
7.5 18. 9
Q
1.5
1.3 ~. 1
.9
-.9
.6
.1
-. 1 1.0
.1
3.8
6.6
— .1
-.4
2.3
1.8 -1.4
2.4 -1.5
1. 1 -1.5
.6 -1.0
g
.1

5.2
12.4
9.9
10. 1
8.8
8.8
10. 1
10.0
.6
.9
.7
.6
.6
1. 1
.9
.9
.9
.9
1. 0
1.3
1.3

6.2
16.8
21. 6 11.3
11.6
8. 1
7.3
6.9
7.2
7.9
9.3
8.0
37.4 13.7
18. 1 14.2
.1
.1
-. 2
.7
1.2
-.6
——» O
1.3
1.2
1.4
3. 1
.9
.8
5. 1
2.0
.8
.1
1.0
1.4
.4
1.2
.7
.4
1.8
.1
1. 2

4.0
11. 1
6.3
6.8
5. 5
6.9
7.5
9.9
.7
1.2
.8
.8
.8
.5
.8
.6
.8
.6
.7
1.2
.7

Adden dum:
AH it ems
percent change
(annua 1 rate)
From From
3
6
months months
earlier earlier

7.6
7.8
12.0
13.5
13.2
11.8
11.2
9.6
8.2
7.0
7.4
10.8
11.5

10.3
9.6
10.0
10.5
10.5
11.9
12.3
11.4
10.0
9. 1
8.5
9.5
9.2

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban
wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 2.2 percent in September and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month
ended September 1 5.
INDEX, 1977=100

INDEX, 1977=100

(RATIO SCALE)

(RATIO SCALE)

170

1973

1980

1981

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977=100]
Prices received by itirmers
Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
1
2

All farm
products

98
105
101
102
100
115
132
134
142
142
144
145
144
144
143
143
142
142
141
137
134

Crops

Livestock
and
products

91
117
105
102
100
106
116
125
135
135
140
142
144
144
146
143
143
137
136
129
121

Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid,
interest, taxes, and wage rates.
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by




104
94
98
101
100
124
147
144
150
150
149
148
145
144
141
143
141
146
146
145
145

Pric es paid by farrners
All commodi- Production
items,
ties, services, interest,
Production
interest,
items
taxes,
taxes, and
and wage
wage rates1
rates

71
81
89
95
100
108
123
139
141
142
144
144
147
148
149
150
150
151
150
151
151

72
81
89
95
100
109
125
140
143
144
145
145
149
149
150
151
151
152
151
150
150

73
83
91
97
100
108
125
138
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
150
150
150
149
149
149

Ratio2

138
130
113
107
100
106
107
96
101
100
100
101
98
97
96
95
95
94
94
91
89

law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS

MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS

M1-A rose in August for the first time since April, while growth in M1-B and the broader aggregates accelerated.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

"BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

fHE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTE

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Ml- A

Currency
plus
demand
deposits
plus
travelers'
checks 1

Period

1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1980:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Aug__
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec-.
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May..
June
July
Aug*
1

„ .
..

„

277. 1
290.2
307.7
331.4
354. 8
372.7
387. 7
382.8
386.4
390. 1
391. 3
387.7
375. 1
367.2
365. 8
366.6
364. 9
361.9
361. 3
362. 2

Ml-B

Ml- A plus
other
checkable
deposits
(OCD) at
banks and
thrift
institutions
278.0
291.8
311. 1
336. 4
364.2
390. 5
415.6
406.9
411. 8
416.3
419. 1
415.6
419. 2
421.2
425.8
433. 7
431.5
428.8
430. 1
432. 8

M2




L

Perce tit chan ge fromi year
or 6 mont lis earli<3r3

Ml-B plus
overnight
M2 plus
RPs and
Eurodollars, large time
MMMF
deposits
shares, and
and term
M3 plus
other liquid Ml-A Ml-B
RPs at
savings and
small time commercial
assets
banks and
deposits at
thrift
commercial
banks and institutions
thrift
institutions 2
4.3 4.4
1, 246. 0
1, 060. 4
908.0
4.7 5.0
1, 024. 4
1, 163. 0
1, 373. 5
1, 302. 3
6. 0 6.6
1, 528. 9
1, 169. 4
7.7 8. 1
1, 722. 7
1, 462. 5
1, 296. 4
7. 1 8.3
1, 936. 8
1, 625. 9
1, 404. 2
2, 151. 7
1, 775. 6
5.0 7.2
1, 525. 2
2, 378. 4
4. 0 6.4
1, 965. 1
1, 669. 4
1, 897. 4
2, 291. 3
3.0 5. 1
1, 633. 4
1, 912. 8
2, 309. 0
1, 644. 9
5. 3 7.8
1, 928. 3
2, 326. 0
11. 1 13.4
1, 654. 0
2, 355. 6
1, 951. 0
1, 668. 5
11.6 14.7
2, 378. 4
7.7 10.8
1, 965. 1
1, 669. 4
1, 989. 3
-.8 10. 2
2, 408. 7
1, 680. 8
2, 009. 1
2, 433. 6 -8. 0 7.2
1, 695. 7
2, 027. 2
2, 445. 3 -10.4 6.9
1, 718. 6
2, 046. 0
2, 457. 7 -11. 7 8.5
1, 738. 1
2, 060. 8
2, 480. 1
13.0 6.0
1, 743. 4
2, 502. 7 -12.9 6.5
2, 079. 0
1, 749. 3
27 094. 1
7.2 5.3
1, 760. 2
-2.7 5. 6
2, 119. 5
1, 779. 0

Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official
institutions.
3
Total M2 excludes demand deposits held by thrift institutions at commercial
banks, not shown separately in components.

26

M3

8

M2

5.6

12.8
14. 2
10.9

8.3
8.6
9.5

10.6
11.2
13.3
13. 2
10. 3
8.4
7.8
9.2

10. 4

9.2
9.8
9.7

10. 1

M3

8.4
9.7

12.0
12.3
11.2
9.2

10.7
9.7

10. 6
12. 6
13.2
12.5
12.7
12. 1
12.3
12. 6
11.6
11.9
10.8
11.3

Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are
from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
NOTE.—Data for M3, L, term RPs, and short-term Treasury securities revised
beginning 1978.
See p. 27 for components except travelers' checks, which can be computed
from data shown on these two pages.
Source.' Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Overnight
De- Other repurchase
Cur- mand check- agreeable
Period rency deposits * deposits ments
(00 D) (RPs)
(net)

Overnight
Eurodollars

NSA

Dec:
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.

NSA

Money
Small Large
market Savdedemutual ings nomi- nomifund
de- nation nation
shares posits time
time
de- 2
deposits posits 2
NSA

Term
Shortrepur- Term
term
chase Euro- Sav- Treas- BankComagree- dollars ings
ury
ers'
ments
(net) bonds secu- accept- mercial
(RPs)
rities ances paper
NSA

NSA

67.8
73.8
80.6
88. 6
97.4
106. 1
116. 1

207.4
214. 1
2214
239.7
253.9
262.8
267.4

0.9
1.6
3.4
5. 0
9.4
17.8
28. 1

7.2
7.5
13.6
17.6
21.9
21.8
27.9

0.0
.0
.0
1.0
2.0
3.6
4.5

2.3
3.6
3.4
3.8
10.3
43.6
75.8

333.9
383.9
447.8
486.5
475. 5
416. 5
393.0

288.9
340. 1
396.2
453.8
533.3
652.7
756.8

144.0
129.6
117.9
145. 1
194.0
219.7
256.8

8.4
9.0
15.0
21. 0
27.7
30.7
38.9

8.0
9.7
13. 1
18.7
29.9
42. 9
48.4

63.2
67. 2
71.8
76. 4
80.3
79.6
72.3

53.6
77.1
81. 1
90. 1
99.6
129.3
159.9

10.6 50. 1
8.4 48. 1
8.8 51.8
11.9 63. 1
21. 7 79. 4
27.0 97.3
32.5 100.2

1980:
Aug.. 113.4
Sept. 113.8
Oet__ 114. 9
Nov. 115.7
Dec_. 116. 1

265.4
268.6
271.2
271.6
267.4

24.2
25.5
26. 3
27.9
2a 1

27.9
29. 3
28.3
28. 1
27.9

3.8
3.7
4.4
4. 7
4.5

80.7
78.2
77.4
77.0
75.8

404.6
407. 9
407.8
406. 1
393.0

713.6
718. 1
724.0
738.0
756.8

229.6
233.4
237.7
245. 4
256.8

34.5
34.5
36.5
37. 1
38.9

48.3
45. 1
45.2
46. 3
48.4

73.2
73.0
72.8
72.6
72.3

146.7
149.9
150.2
154.6
159.9

28.8 96.8
29.7 98. 5
30.6 98.9
31.3 99. 8
32.5 100.2

1981:
Jan.. 116. 6
Feb.. 117.2
Mar. 117. 9
Apr.. 118.9
May. 119.8
June. 119.9
July. 120.8
Aug". 121.2

254.4
245. 8
243.5
243. 1
240. 7
237.9
236.4
236.7

44. 3
54.3
60.2
67. 3
66.9
67.1
69.0
70.8

27.5
27.0
28.7
29.3
31.8
33.3
32.3
33. 1

5.2
4. 9
4.6
5.0
6.5
6.4
6.9
7.8

80.7
92. 4
105. 6
117. 1
118. 1
122.8
134.3
145.4

376.9
370. 8
368.3
367.0
361. 1
354.0
349. 0
341.3

775.7
783.3
789.4
790.0
798.4
807.7
811. 5
822.5

268.0
273.9
271. 0
269. 5
277. 2
287.3
290.4
296.8

40.4
39. 5
37.6
38.5
40.2
42.4
43.5
43.7

50.2
52.2
52. 2
52.6
57.0
57.9

71.9
71. 1
70.7
70.4
69.9
69.7

165.1
169.9
164.6
157.6
157.5
160.3

33.0
32.0
33. 0
34.6
35.7
36. 5

1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in
amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

99.2
99.4
97. 6
96.5
99. 1
99. 3

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures and note regarding revisions.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Installm ent credit ei^tended
Period
Total i

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Revolving

Automobile

Revolving

Total *

Automobile

Revolving

__

49, 606
46, 514
52, 420
63, 743
75, 641
87, 981
93, 901
83, 002

28, 702
33, 213
36, 956
43, 934
87, 596
105, 125
120, 174
129, 580

152, 817
163, 276
172, 675
189, 179
222, 138
254, 589
286, 396
304, 477

43, 696
46, 019
49, 444
53, 278
60, 437
69, 245
79, 186
83, 037

26, 699
31, 243
35, 616
41, 764
81, 348
96, 090
111, 546
126, 655

20, 218
9,489
7,408
21, 561
35, 462
43, 079
38, 381
1,410

5,910
495
2,976
10, 465
15, 204
18, 736
14, 715
-35

2,003
1,970
1,340
2,170
6,248
9,035
8,628
2,925

23, 997
26, 176
27, 064
27, 365
25, 991
27, 149

6,068
7,400
7,518
7,544
7, 117
7,234

10, 679
10, 700
11, 143
11, 124
10, 953
11, 614

25, 196
25, 687
26, 009
26, 663
25, 152
25, 530

6,785
7,045
7,434
7,343
6,872
6,932

10, 641
10, 419
10, 665
10, 851
10, 688
10, 998

-1,199
489
1,055
702
839
1,619

-717
355
84
201
245
302

38
281
478
273
265
616

27, 059
28, 706
29, 822
28, 878
28, 149
29, 005
28, 750

7,237
8,333
8,700
7,205
7,320
7,442
8,178

11, 483
11, 867
12, Of 1
12, 352
11, 904
12, 668
12, 190

26, 190
26, 710
26, 714
26, 547
26, 803
27, 075
26, 796

7,300
7,354
7, 018
6,777
7,515
7, 385
6,970

10, 926
11, 426
11,484
11, 514
11, 554
11, 650
11, 713

869
1,996
3, 108
2,331
1,346
1,930
1,954

-63
979
1,682
428
-195
57
1,208

557
441
587
838
350
1,018
477

' Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




Total *

Net change in amount c>utstanding

173, 035
172, 765
180, 083
210, 740
257, 600
297, 668
324, 777
305, 887

.

1980: July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Automobile

Installm ent credit li quidated

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Growth in commercial bank loans and investments accelerated in August. Total and nonborrowed reserves rose while
discount borrowings fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

-ALL

COMMERCIAL BANKS

40

40
1973

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Total
loans
and
investments

Period

1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:

Dec
713.9
Dec
745. 1
D e c _ _ _ _ . _ 804. 6
Dec
891.3
Dee
1, 013. 4
Dec
1, 134. 6
Dec
1, 237. 3

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Depositc>ry instituitions 3
Allc ommercial t>anks l
Borrowiiigs (millions of dollars,
Reserves
Investnaents
Loans <and leases
unadji jsted)
CommerCS
U" .b.
Other
SeaReNoncial and
Total
Total 2 industrial Treasury
Total
secuborrowed quired
sonal
securities
rities
loans

520. 1
517.2
555. 0
632.3
746.9
848. 9
912.7

197.4
189. 9
191.3
211.2
246. 1
291. 1
324.9

53.7
82.2
100. 6
99.5
93.3
93.8
110.7

140.0
145. 7
149. 0
159.5
173. 2
191.8
213.9

36.66
34.67
34. 90
36.00
41. 16
43.46
40. 13

35.94
34.54
34. 85
35.43
40. 29
41.98
38.44

36.41
34. 40
34.63
35. 81
40.93
43. 13
39.66

1,473
1,617

703
127
62
558
874

32
13
12
54
134
82
116

1980: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov

868.3
878.0
887.5
901.7
912.7

303.3
308.3
313.8
320. 7
324. 9

105.7
107. 7
109. 1
110. 5
110.7

206.9
207.5
209.9
212. 1
213.9

40.75
41. 52
41.73
41.25
40. 13

40.09
40. 21
40.42
39. 19
38.44

40. 45
41.26
41.52
40. 73
39.66

659

Dec

1, 180. 9
1, 193. 3
1, 206. 5
1, 224. 2
1, 237. 3

1,311
1,335
2,156
1,617

10
26
67
99
116

1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julv
Aug

1, 253. 3
1, 262. 9
1, 262. 4
1, 267. 0
1, 279. 3
1, 285. 4
_„ 1, 291. 6
1, 302. 7

923. 6
930.4
929. 3
934.2
943. 1
947. 1
951.7
961.4

329.3
330.9
330. 7
331.3
334. 6
338.8
343.8
349. 7

113.5
115.2
114. 8
115. 1
117. 5
119.3
120.4
119.4

216.2
217.2
218. 3
217.6
218. 7
219.0
219.5
221. 9

40. 06
39. 88
40. 19
40. 32
40.76
40. 75
41.00
41.47

38.67
38. 58
39. 19
38. 99
38.54
38. 72
39. 32
40. 05

39. 75
39.61
39.94
40.20
40. 59
40.50
40. 75
41. 27

1,405
1,278
1,004
1,343
2,154
2,038
1, 751
1,408

120
148
197
161
259
291
248
220

1
8

Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
* Data are averages of daily figures. Reserves series reflects actual reserve
requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in
Regulations D and M. Prior to November 13,1980, the date of implementation of
the Monetary Control Act, data relate only to member banks.

28



NOTE.—Reserves data revised.
Latest month's data for loans and investments are estimates.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses
External

Credil> market f unds
P«-ir,H

Total

Internal 1

Total
Total

1971_
1972
1973
1974_
1975__
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: I
II
III
IV
1981: I

HP

133.7
165. 8
208.7
202. 9
168.0
223.4
264. 2
320.4
366. 7
336. 1
359.6
265. 4
325. 5
394.3
337.5
385. 5

73.5
85.0
91.7
85. 6
119.7
134. 2
156. 1
171.9
190. 6
196.8
194.9
192. 9
199.2
200.3
222. 0
226. 6

60.2
80.8
117. 0
117.3
48.3
89.2
108. 1
148.5
176. 1
139.3
164. 7
72. 5
126. 3
194. 0
115. 5
158.9

Securities
and

mortgages

41.2
40. 7
36.9
39.2
49. 7
48.0
48. 1
45.8
39.5
66.4
65.9
62.3
63. 5
74. 1
60.9
24. 4

45.6
57.6
72. 9
82.8
41. 7
64.3
84.6
93. 2
104.8
106. 1
126. 7
70. 1
93. 3
134.3
77.3
109.9

1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits,
dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

Loans
and
shortterm
paper

Other 2

16.9
36. 0
43. 6

14.6
23. 1
44. 1
34.6

16. 3
36.5
47.4
65. 3
39.7
60.8

24. 9
23.5
55. 3
71.4
33. 3
38. 0

29.8
60. 2
16.4
85.5

33.0
59.6
38. 3
49.0

4.4

6.5

8.0

2.4

7.8

Total

122. 7
149.2
192.0
190. 1
150. 9
201.3
228. 2
290.4
339. 0
289.5
310.3
221. 9
286. 1
339.8
309. 5
345. 3

Capital
expenditures 3

86.0
99. 1
121. 5
137.9
109. 7
148.3
174. 1
199.2
220. 9
216. 9
224. 1
212. 0
207. 1
224.3
231.0
262. 1

Increase
in
financial
assets

36.7
50. 1
70.5
52.2
41.2
53. 0
54. 1
91.2
118. 1
72.6
86. 2
9.9

79. 0
115. 5
78.5
83.2

Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)

11.0
16.7
16.7
12. 9
17.0
22.0
36.0
30.0
27.8
46.7
49. 3
43.6
39.3
54. 5
28.0
40. 1

8
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Curre nt assets
End of period
Total
SEC series:2
1970
1971
1972
1973..
1974
FTC-FRB series:3
1974
...
1975___
1976... __ _.
1977
1978
_
1979
_
1980
1979: I
_
II
III
IV
1980: I_
._
II
III
IV
1981: I
_

Cash

Cur rent liabil ities

Notes
U.S.
governand
Invenment
actories
securi- counts
ties receivable

Total

Net

working
capital

Current
ratio *

492. 3
529. 6
599. 3
697.8
790.7

50. 2
53.3
59. 0
66.3
71. 1

11.0
10.6
12. 8
12. 3

7.7

206. 1
221. 1
248.2
288. 5
322. 1

193.3
200.4
225.7
263. 9
313.6

35.0
43.8
55. 8
66. 4
71.7

304.9
326. 0
375.6
450. 9
530.4

211.3
220. 5
282. 9
340. 3
402.3

93. 6
105. 5
92.7
110.7
128. 1

187.4
203.6
223. 7
246. 9
260.3

1. 615
1.625
1. 595
1. 548
1.491

735.4
759.0
826.8
902. 1
1, 030. 0
i, 200. 9
1, 281. 1
1,081. 0
1, 108. 2
1, 169. 5
1, 200. 9
1, 234. 0
1, 232. 2
1, 254. 9
1, 281. 1
1, 321. 4

73.2
82. 1
88.2
95.8
104. 5
116. 1
120.9
102. 7
100. 1
103.7
116. 1
110.5
111.5
113.4
120. 9
120.4

11. 1
19.0
23.4
17.6
16.3
15.6
17.1
17.4
18.6
15.8
15. 6
15.2
14.0
16.4
17. 1
16.8

265.8
272. 1
292. 8
324.7
383.8
456. 8
491. 6
408. 1
421. 1
453.0
456. 8
470. 3
463. 4
478.7
491. 6
507.9

319. 5
315.9
342. 4
374.8
426.9
501.7
525.3
451.4
465.2
489.4
501.7
518. 9
525.0
524. 5
525. 3
542.8

65. 9
69. 9
80. 1
89.2
98.5
110.8
126.2
101. 4
103. 2
107.7
110. 8
119.2
118.3
121.9
126. 2
133.5

453.4
451.6
494.7
549. 4
665.5
809. 1
877.8
705.4
724. 7
777.8
809. 1
836.5
826.0
850. 5
877. 8
911.7

269.8
264. 2
281.9
313.2
373.7
456. 3
498.5
391.3
406. 4
438.8
456.3
467.7
462.8
477. 0
498. 5
504.5

183.6
187.4
212.8
236. 2
291.7
352. 8
379.3
314. 1
318.3
339. 0
352. 8
368.8
363.2
373.5
379. 3
407.2

282. 0
307. 4
332.2
352.7
364.6
391.8
403. 4
375.6
383.5
391. 7
391.8
397.5
406.2
404.3
403. 4
409.7

1.622
1.681
1.672
1. 642
1.548
1. 484
1.460
1.532
1. 529
1.504
1.484
1.475
1.492
1. 475
1.460
1.449

i8 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Statistics of Income. Department of the Treasury.
3
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and
Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.
NOTE.—Data revised for 1980.




Other
current
assets

Notes
Other
and
current
accounts liabilities
payable

SEC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trad*
Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Short-term rates declined in September while long-term rates rose.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
16

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)

1981

1973

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW

[Percent per annum]

U.S. Tre asury securi by yields
Period

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
_
Feb
Mar..
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept*
Week ended:
Aug 22
29
Sept 5
12
19.
26. _
Oct 3_ „
1
2

3-month
bills i

Constant rnatalities 2
3-year

10-year

High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount
municipal
mercial
rate
Aaa
bonds
paper,
(N.Y.
(Standard
6
F.R.
Bank) 5
& Poor's) 3 (Moody's) months *

5. 838
4.989
5. 265
7.221
10. 041
11. 508
10. 321
11. 580
13. 888
15. 661
14. 724
14.905
13. 478
13. 635
16. 295
14. 557
14. 699
15. 612
14. 951

7.49
6.77
6. 69
8.29
9.71
11.55
11.57
12. 01
13. 31
13. 65
13.01
13. 65
13.51
14.09
15.08
14.29
15.15
16.00
16.22

7.99
7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
11. 46
11.51
11.75
12.68
12.84
12.57
13. 19
13. 12
13.68
14. 10
13.47
14.28
14.94
15.32

6.89
6.49
5.56
5.90
6.39
8.51
8.95
9. 11
9.55
10.09
9.65
10.03
10.12
10. 55
10.73
10.56
11.03
12. 13

8. 83
8.43
8. 02
8.73
9.63
11.94
12. 02
12.31
12.97
13. 21
12.81
13.35
13.33
13.88
14. 32
13.75
14.38
14.89
15.47

4
4
4
4

6. 33
5. 35
5. 60
7. 99
10.91
12. 29
11.04
12. 32
14.73
16.49
15. 10
14.87
13.59
14. 17
16.66
15.22
16.09
16.62
15.93

6. 25
5.50
5. 46
7.46
10.28
11. 77
10-11
11-11
11-12
12-13
13-13
13-13
13-13
13-13
13-14
14-14
14-14
14-14
14-14

15. 705
15. 832
15. 583
15. 611
14. 412
14. 198

15.98
16.39
16.47
16. 42
15.97
15.98

14. 63
15.32
15. 44
15. 37
15. 05
15.21

12. 33
12.90
13.06
13. 20
12.74
12.47

14.78
15. 21
15. 50
15.61
15. 30
15.35

16.72
16.67
16. 57
16.50
15. 65
15.29

14-14
14-14
14-14
14-14
14-14
14-14
14-

Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities
by the Treasury Department.
8
4 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
1
Average effective rate for year: opening and closing rate for month and week.

30



1

Prime
rate
charged
by

banks 5

7.86
6. 84
6. 83
9.06
12.67
15.27
11^-13
l
13 /2-14^4
14^-17%
17%-21}4
21JS-20
20-19
19—17^4
17*4—18
18-20K
20l/4-20
20-20K
20K-20K
20/4- 19}^

Newhome
mortgage
vields
(FIILBB)«
9.01
8. 99
9. 01
9. 54
10.77
12. 65
12.35
12.61
13.04
13.28
13.26
13.54
14.02
14.15
14. 10
14.67
14.72
15.27

20^—2014
20 H— 20^
20^-20/2
20H-20J/2

20^20
20-19^
19X2-

Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting
fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment
at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with
prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal
eserve
Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Moody's Investors Service,
and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices fell in September.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50

80

80

70 -

- 70

60

- 5

5 -

1981

1973

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

Cominon stock p rices
Period

New York Stock Excb ange indexe s(Dec. 31, 11965=50) *
Composite Industrial Transportation

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
AprMay__
June
July
Aug
Sept 9
Week ended:
1981: Aug 15
22
29
Sept 5
12
19
26

Utility

50. 52
60.44
57. 86
58.23
64. 76
78.70
8492
88.00
92.32
90.37
89.23
85.74
89.39
90.57
88.78
88.63
86.64
86.72
78.07

31. 10
39. 57
41. 09
43.50
47. 34
60.61
65.89
70.76
77.23
75.74
74.43
72.76
77.09
80.63
76.78
76.71
74,42
73.27
63.67

31.50
36.97
40.92
39.22
38.21
37.35
38.77
38. 44
38.35
37.84
38.53
37.59
37.82
38. 34
38.27
39.23
38.90
40.22
38.17

47. 14
52. 94
55.25
56.65
61.42
64.25
69. 33
68.29
67.21
67.46
70.04
68.48
72.82
74.59
74.65
79.79
74.97
73.76
69.38

77.30
75.71
72.33
70.77
69. 13
68. 61
66.65

89.07
87.21
83. 18
81.23
79. 29
78.39
75.65

75.71
73.94
69.34
66.78
64.31
63. 83
61. 61

41.38
40.59
39. 14
38.73
38. 12
38. 18
37.97

75.55
74. 15
71.33
70. 19
68.59
69.70
69.44

1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks. «Includes 500 stocks.
• Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing
prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.




Finance

45.73
54.46
53. 69
53.70
58. 32
68. 10
73. 12
75. 17
78. 15
76.69
76.24
73. 52
76.46
77. 60
76.28
76.80
74.98
75.24
68.37

1
Average of daily closing prices.
1
Includes all the stocks (more than
8

Common stock 5 vields
(perc ent)

1

Standard
Dow& Poor's
EarningsJones
composite Dividendprice
price
industrial
index
ratio
ratio
average 3 (1941-43=
10) 4
9. 15
802. 49
4.31
86. 16
8.90
974.92
3.77
102. 01
4.62
10.79
894.63
98.20
12.03
820. 23
5.28
96.02
13.46
5.47
844. 40
103. 01
12.66
5.26
891. 41
118. 78
11.67
4.90
946. 67
126. 51
4.80
949. 17
130. 22
4.63
971. 08
135. 65
10.92
4.74
945. 96
133. 48
4.80
962. 13
132. 97
5.00
945. 50
128. 40
10.72
4.88
987. 18
133. 19
4.86
1, 004. 86
134. 43
4.98
979. 52
131.73
5.03
996. 27
132. 28
5.18
947. 94
129. 13
5. 16
926. 25
129. 63
853. 38
118. 27

943. 89
925. 30
896. 50
875. 42
860. 06
850. 48
838. 47

133. 16
130. 35
124. 64
122. 12
119. 53
118. 54
115. 47

5.03
5.15
5. 38
5.44
5.68
5.67
5. 83

XOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
In the first 11 months of fiscal 1981, there was a budget deficit of $64.8 billion, compared to a deficit of $65.2
billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS"
800

-50 -100
1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1979

1978

1980

1981

1982

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES.- DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET ,

[Billions of dollars]
Period

Receipts

Fiscal year or period:
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 (estimates):
Revised Second Concurrent Resolution,
May 21, 1981
Mid-Session Review, July 1981 l
1982 (estimates):
First Concurrent Resolution, May 21, 1981 _
Mid-Session Review, July 1981 l
Cumulative total, first 11 months:
Fiscal year 198CL
Fiscal year 1981
i Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1982 Budget, Office of Management
and Budget, July .15,1981.

32



Outlays

Surplus or
deficit (-)

Federal debt ( end of period)
Held by
the public

188.4
208.6
232. 2
264 9
281.0
300.0
81.8
357.8
402. 0
465.9
520.0

211.4
232.0
247. 1
269.6
326.2
366.4
94.7
402.7
450.8
493.6
579.6

-23.0
-23.4
-14.8
-47
-45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-45.0
-48.8
-27.7
-59.6

409.5
437.3
468.4
486.2
544 1
631.9
646.4
709. 1
780.4
833.8
914.3

3043
323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
6446
715. 1

603.3
605.6

661.4
661.2

-58. 1
-55.6

999.8
995. 1

786.1

657.8
662.4

695.5
704.8

-37. 7
-42.5

1, 079. 8
1, 079. 2

845.1

466.5
542.0

531.7
606.8

-65.2
— 64. 8

900. 1
986.3

708.8
785.9

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Offlce of Management and Budget,
except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 11 months of fiscal 1981, budget receipts were $75.5 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays
were $75.1 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400

300

200
j.i.twW11"
"~~ ...Hill""*""

/
/

OTHER RECEIPTS

100

100

600

600
OUTLAYS

500

500

400

400
NONDEFENSE

300

300

200

200
NATIONAL DEFENSE

100

100
1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1 7
9 8

1979

1982

1981

1980

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
<Dutlays

Rece ipts
Nationa i defense
Period

Fiscal year or period:
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
19811
1982 »_

Total

188.4
208. 6
232.2
264. 9
281.0
300.0
81.8
357.8
402.0
465.9
520.0
605.6
_ 662.4

Cumulative total, first 11
months:
Fiscal year 1980
Fiscal year 1981

466.5
542.0

IndiCorpovidual ration
income income
taxes
taxes

Total

Other

Interna- Health
In- Other
and
tional
income
affairs security terest

86.2
94.7
103.2
119. 0
122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217.8
244. 1
285.6
302.9

26.8
32.2
36.2
38.6
40. 6
41.4
8.5
54. 9
60.0
65.7
64.6
63.3
66.8

75.4
81.7
92. 8
107.4
118. 0
127.0
345
145.2
161. 1
182.4
211.4
256.7
292.7

211.4
232.0
247. 1
269.6
326.2
366.4
94.7
402.7
450.8
493. 6
579.6
661.2
704.8

75.8
76.6
745
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
160.4
188. 1

745
75. 1
73.2
77.6
84 9
87.9
21. 9
95.6
103. 0
115.0
132.8
156. 6
183.8

41
47
41
5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
48
5.9
6. 1
10.7
11.8
11.4

70.1
81.4
91.8
106. 5
136.2
160.8
41. 5
176.7
189.9
209.8
251.3
294 1
312.3

19.6
20.6
22. 8
28.0
30.9
345
7.2
38.0
440
52.6
64 5
S3. 1
92.3

41.8
48.8
53.9
51.6
66.5
76.1
21.5
85.7
105. 9
107.5
117.3
111.8
100.7

217. 1
254.7

55.7
52.5

193.7
234. 9

531.7
606.8

124.2
145.7

121.5
142.4

9.9
10. 1

227.5
269.2

59.8
76.2

110.2
105.7

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1982 Budget, Office of Management
and Budget, July 15,1981.




Department of
Defense,
military

Total

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the second quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $3.6 billion (annual rate) from the first
quarter level and expenditures rose $4.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $47.2 billion, $0.6 billion higher than the deficit
in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

700

700
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

600

600

500

500
EXPENDITURES

400

400

RECEIPTS

300

300

200

50

50
SURPLUS

'W7T\

DEFICIT
-50

-50
-100

-100

1974

1973

1976

1975

1977

1979

1978

1981

1980

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal (jrovernm ent receip ts
Period

P
A ersonaJi Corporate
Total tax and profits
nontax
tax
receipts accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

F<5deral G<>vernmeiit expen<litures

Subsidies Less:
GrantsWage
Contriless
Purin-aid
butions
current accruals
chases Trans- to State Net
for
Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less
social inand
ments local
paid Govern- dissurance
services
government en- burseterprises ments
ments

Surplus
or
deficit
( T ),
national
income
and
product
accounts

Fiscal year:
365.9
1977
1978
414.2
1979
408.7
1980
527.3

166.4
186.4
223. 1
249.7

58.8
67.2
75.8
70.6

24. 5
27. 2
29. 1
35.7

116. 2
133.4
152.7
171.3

411. 7
450. 5
494. 7
578.2

140.3
150.7
163.4
190.2

169.8
182. 2
201.8
239.3

66.3
74.7
79. 1
86.7

28.4
33.5
40.6
51.2

7.0
9.6
9.8
10.8

0.0
-.0
.0
.0

-45.8
-36.3
-14.0
-50. 9

Calendar
year:
375. 1
1977
1978
431. 5
494. 4
1979
1980
540.8
1979: III__ 500.6
IV___ 514. 0
1980: I
528.4
II— 520.9
III.. 540.8
IV... 573.2
1981:1
617.4
II-... 621.0

170. 1
194. 9
231.4
257.8
236.2
247. 1
246.9
252.0
259.4
272.9
283.3
293.2

61.6
71.2
74. 6
70.2
75.3
74.3
80.5
60.9
66.7
72.6
74.6
64.8

25.0
28. 1
29.4
40.6
29.3
29.6
31.9
38.7
42. 9
49.1
60.6
62.6

118.5
137.2
159.0
172. 2
159.9
163.0
169. 2
169.3
171.8
178.6
198.9
200.4

421. 5
460. 7
509.2
602.0
515.8
538. 6
564. 7
587.3
615. 0
641. 1
664.0
668.2

143.9
153.4
167.9
198.9
165. 1
178. 1
190. 0
198. 7
194.9
212.0
221. 6
219.5

172.8
185. 6
209. 1
249.8
216.6
221. 7
228. 9
236.0
265.3
269.0
271.9
274.8

67. 5
77.3
80.4
88.0
80.8
84.9
85. 5
87.2
87.7
91.8
90.2
89.6

29. 1
35. 2
42.3
53.3
42. 9
44.4
50.3
54.4
53.5
55.2
67.7
70.4

8.2
9.3
9.4
12.0
10.5
9.5
10. 1
11.0
13. 7
13. 1
12.6
13.9

.0
.0
-. 0
.0
.0
0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

-46.4
-29. 2
-14.8
-61.2
-15.2
-24.5
-36.3
-66. 5
-74.2
-67.9
—46. 6
-47.2

34



INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Period

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 v
1980: Sept....
Oct
Nov___.
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar..__
Apr
May v
June p»._
July __
Aug*L_.

[1967 = 100]
Con sumer p rices (urladjustec I)
isonally adjuste i)
In dustrial produc tion (se*
United United CanUnited
GerGerJaUnited Canpan France many Italy King- States1 ada Japan France many Italy KingStates ada
dom
dom
129.3
117.8
130. 5
138. 2
146. 1
152.5
147. 0
144.4
146.6
149.2
150.4
151. 4
151. 8
152. 1
151.9
152.7
152.9
153.4
152.8

147. 5
139.6
147.3
150.5
156. 7
164.0
161.4
161. 5
162.5
163. 1
163.3
162.2
164.0
166.8
167.7
168.3
168.3

183. 1
163. 9
182.0
189. 7
201. 1
217.7
232. 6
231.5
233.8
230.7
2344
236.4
237.9
235.9
237.0
232. 6
238.4
240. 2

148 145. 1 140. 6 120.0
139 137. 1 127.6 114. 3
149 149. 1 L43. 5 117.4
152 152. 0 145. 1 122.9
155 154. 1 147. 9 126. 9
163 161.8 157. 6 131.7
160 162.3 166.5 122. 6
161.8 118. 1
156 160
163.9 118.5
160 161
154 160
170.7 117.7
162 157
160. 5 116.9
158.7 116. 1
151 160
170.6 117. 4
149 167
169. 1 117. 3
156 163
168.2 117. 0
151 163
158.5 116. 1
150 163
152 158
158.7 118. 1
160
162.9 118. 1

' Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Inter-

147.7 144.5 184.0 160.0
161.2 160. 1 205. 8 178.9
170.5 172. 1 224.9 196. 1
181.5 185. 9 243.0 214. 5
195.4 202.5 252.3 233.9
217.4 221. 0 261.3 259. 1
246.8 243.5 282.2 294.2
251.7 249. 0 288. 1 301.0
253.9 251.2 288.5 304.3
256.2 254. 3 289. 1 306.4
258.4 255.8 287.2 309. 1
260. 5 259. 1 290. 7 312.7
263. 2 261.7 290.9 315.6
265. I 265.2 292.6 318.8
266.8 267.2 294.9 323. 1
269.0 269.6 297.9 326.0
271.3 273.8 297.9 329.2
274. 4 276. 2 297.0 334.9
276.5 278. 2

136. 1
144.2
150.4
155.9
160. 2
166. 8
175.9
177.0
177.3
178.3
179.4
180.9
182.3
183.5
184.7
185.4
186.3
187. 1
187.7

159.7
186. 8
218. 1
255. 2
286.2
328.5
398.0
411.6
418.5
427.3
432.5
440.7
448.6
454.9
461.3
467. 8
472.5
476.3
479.6

174.3
216.5
252. 4
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
434. 1
436.8
440.3
442.7
445. 5
449. 5
456.2
469.4
472. 4
475.2
477. 3
480.8

national Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International
Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merch andise es;ports l

Merch andise irnports
Geiaeral imf:>orts

]Domestic exports

Period

Monthly
average:
1973
1974

Total
lomesiic and
oreign Total
exports

2

Food, Crude
Food, Crude
bever- mate- Manubever- mate2
facrials
ages,
ages,
rials
tured Total and to- and
and to- and
goods
fuels
bacco
bacco
fuels

F.aus. value

5,902
8,167

1974*
8,170
1975*
8,971
1976*
9,602
1977*
10, 103
1978*
11, 973
1979*
15, 155
1980
18, 386
1980: Aug.... 19, 087
Sept.... 18, 828
Oct.__ 19, 214
Nov.__ 18, 715
Dec.__ 19, 251
1981: Jan.... 18, 825
Feb... 19, 764
Mar... 21, 434
Apr
19, 818
May... 18, 869
June... 19, 870
July.... 19, 264
Aug
19, 050

Manufactured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value) 4

3,750
4,684

6, 131
9,033

4,602
4,257
5,398
6,379
8, 360
9, 357
10,427
10, 390
10, 524
10, 520
10, 572
10, 897
11, 777
10, 714
11, 294
11, 291
11,822
11, 597
11, 296
13, 636

9,207
8,828
11, 047
13, 371
15, 504
18, 519
21, 415
20, 665
20, 837
21, 244
20, 751
22, 364
24, 265
22, 910
21, 886
23, 283
22, 314
22, 993
20, 728
2^, 665

Merchandise trade
balance
Exports
Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports
less
(f.a.8.) (f.a.s.)
imless
less
imports
imports
ports
(cus(c.i.f.)
toms (f.a.s.)
value)

Custom s value

5

5,811
8,053

1,078
1,269

895
1,317

3,728
5,294

5,790
8,450

8,053
8,842
9,456
9,912
11,753
14, 869
18, 036
18, 771
18, 521
18, 770
18, 344
18, 918
18, 459
19, 441
21, 000
19, 408
18, 499
19, 461
18, 894
18, 740

1,269
1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534
2,534
2,724
2,886
2,909
3,099
2,926
2,938
3,334
2,879
2,680
2,582
2,534
2,455

1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810
3,149
2,752
2,554
2,447
2,746
2,896
2, 936
3,245
2,458
2, 541
2,328
2,434
2,637

5,294
5,913
6,437
6 S 679
7,873
9,716
11,991
12, 448
12, 483
12, 473
12, 241
12, 368
11,913
12, 816
13, 658
13, 392
12, 562
13, 581
13, 046
13, 051

8,548
8,209
10, 290
12, 533
14, 564
17, 455
20, 406
19, 713
19, 941
20, 347
19, 860
21, 436
23, 194
21, 922
20, 949
22, 289
21,310
21, 975
19, 807
23, 528

!
Department oi
Defense s lipments o [ grant-aid military st ppiies and eauipment under the 3 'lilitary As sistance Pr ogram are excluded 1 rom totals for all
periods and from inonthly detail beginni ng January 197S.
s
Total includes commoditi es and tran sactions no t classified jiccording t o kind.
1
1 Total arrivals of importec goods oth€ r than intr ansit shipir ents.
C.i.f. (cost, insurance, an d freight) iiuport valu B at first pc rt of entry in the
United States. Da ta for 1973 are estimat 38.
5
F.a.s. (free alo ngside ship ) value bas is: at U.S. j30 rt of expo "tat ion for « snorts
and at foreign por E of exportation for imj3orts.




8

770 1,120
892 2, 653
F.a.s. value s
892 2, 672
827 2,716
991 3,457
1, 186 4,463
1,312 4,325
1,478 5,949
1,546 7,831
1,467 7,292
1,391 7, 112
1,583 7,506
1,680 7,059
1,583 8,331
1,748 9,041
1,588 9,141
1,609 7,478
1,477 8,947
1,676 7,206
1,467 8,270
1,385 6,598
1, 500 7,768

112
-283

-221

-229
-866

-378
762
-688
-2, 430
-2,590
-2, 300
-2,020
-626
-1, 112
-1,134
-1,145
-2, 185
-4, 370
-2, 158
485
-2,471
-2, 441
-2, 105
-542
— 4,478

-1,037
143
-1,445
-3, 268
-3,530
-3, 364
-3,030
-1,578
—2, 008
-2, 031
-2, 036
-3, 113
— 5,440
-3, 146
-451
-3,465
-3,445
— 3, 123
- 1, 463
— 5, 614

data,
>m
i
* NOTE.—-Data begiiming 1975 iot strictly c< parable ^arith earlier cept that for
981
* Data foi• 1980 and 1 includetrade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, exil domes tic
1980 Virgin Islands ex 3orts are r<jflected only in the figiires for tot
imd foreign exports anc 1 trade bala nee.
* Data foi 1974-79 for total dome stic and forei gn exports, total gener il imports,
£md trade b alance inch,ide trade of the Virgin I.slands.
Source: D epartment of Commei*ce, Bureau c f the Const is.
QC
ou

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the second quarter, the merchandise trade deficit increased to $6.9 billion from $4.6 billion in the first quarter.
The balance on current account fell to $1.1 billion from $3.3 billion in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

-15
1981

1973

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (4-), debits (—)]
Merchandise

Period
Exports

1973
_
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1979: !___
II..
III..
IV..
1980: !.__
II-.
III_.
IV._
1981:I_.._
II »_

Imports

Inv<3stment inicomes

12

Net
hflla]*|f»A

Receipts

Payments

71, 410 -70,499
911 21, 808 -9, 655
98, 306 -103,649
5,343 27, 587 - 12, 084
107, 088 -98,041
9,047 25, 351 -12,564
114, 745 -124,051 -9, 306 29, 286 -13,311
120, 816 -151,689 -30, 873 32, 179 -14,217
142, 054 -175,813 -33, 759 43, 265 -21,865
184, 473 -211,819 -27,346 66, 699 -33,236
223, 966 -249,308 -25, 342 75, 936 -43, 174
42, 036 -46, 766 -4, 730 14, 111 -7, 352
43, 834 -51, 117 -7,283 15, 582 -7,949
47, 236 -54, 210 -6,974 18, 055 -8,734
51, 367 -59, 726 -8, 359 18, 952 -9,203
54, 898 -65, 024-10, 126 20, 465 - 10, 629
55, 667 -62,411 -6, 744 16, 860 - 10, 342
56, 252 -59, 154 -2,902 18, 850 -10,697
57, 149 -62, 719 -5, 570 19, 764 -11,507
61, 098 -65,775 -4, 677 21, 566 -12,513
60, 477 -67,391 -6, 914 22, 235 -13, 587

i Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
• Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and
included in other services, net.
1

36



N«»t

12, 153
15, 503
12, 787
15, 975
17, 962
21, 400
33, 463
32, 762
6,759
7,633
9,321
9,749
9,836
6,518
8,153
8,257
9,053
8,648

Net
military
transactions

-2,070
-1,653
— 746
559
1,528
738
-1,947
-2,515
-134
-324
-565
— 923
-918
-427
-455
-715
-568
-586

Nettravel
and
transportation
receipts
-3, 158
-3, 184
-2, 792
-2, 558
-3,293
-3, 178
-2,622
-798
-678
-677
-722
-545
KQO
OOZi

-152
-38
-76
-668
-256

Other
services,
net 8

Balance
on
goods
and
services l

Remittances,
pensions,
and
other
1 at oral

transfers 1

Balance
on
current
account

3,184 11, 021 -3,881
7,140
2,124
9,309 -7, 186
3,986
4,598 22, 893 -4, 613 18, 280
9,382 -4, 998 4,384
4,711
5, 182 -9,493 -4,617 -14,110
5,792 -9, 008 -5,067 - 14, 075
1,414
7,008 -5,593
5,460
3,723
6,674 10, 779 -7,056
1,228
1,322
2,539 -1,311
702 -1,381
-679
1,353
1,052
2,453 -1,401
1,393
1,312 -1,501
-189
1,390
-217 -1,878 -2,095
1,523
-545
1,592
787 -1,332
4,975
6,478 -1,503
1,719
3,734 -2,344
1,390
1,838
3,263
4,790 -1,527
1,650
1,073
2,603 -1,530
1,712

NOTE.—Data revised for first quarter.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. official reserve assets increased $0.9 billion in the second quarter, following a $4.5
billion increase in the first quarter. Foreign official assets in the U.S. decreased $3.0 billion, following a $5.5 billion
increase in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS

IN THE U.S.. NET ,-

-10

-30

-30

-40

-40
1973

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
1U.S. assets abroad, net
[inc rease/capit<al outflow ( -)]

Period
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1979: I
II__.
III___
IV...
1980: I
II___
III___
IV__.
1981: I
II»..

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 2

Other
U.S.
Government
assets

-22, 874
-34,745
-39, 703
-51, 269
-34,785
-61, 070
-62, 639
-84, 776
-8,057
-15,639
-24, 942
-14,003
-12,639
-24,837
-19,302
-27, 995
-22,397
-21,521

158
-1,467
849
-2, 558
-375
732
-1, 133
-8, 155
-3,585
322
2,779
-649
-3, 268
502
-1, 109
-4, 279
-4, 529
905

-2,644
366
3,474
-4, 214
-3, 693
-4,644
-3,767
-5, 165
-1,093
-971
-778
-925
-1,456
-1, 187
1,427
-1,094
-1,395
-1,475

U.S.
private
assets

Foreigii assets in the U.S.,
net increase/ciipital inflow (+)] 2

Total

6,026
-20, 388 18, 388
10, 546
-33,643 34, 241
7,027
-35, 380 15, 670
17, 693
-44,498 36, 518
36, 816
-30, 717 51, 218
33, 561
-57, 159 63, 748
-57,739 38, 946 -13, 757
15, 492
-71,456 50, 261
-8, 688
-3, 379 2,259
- 14, 990 7,007 -9, 785
6,011
-26, 943 24, 345
-12,429 5,335 - 1, 295
-7, 915 7,509 -7,462
7,557
-24, 152 7,232
7,686
-16,766 11,651
7,711
-22, 622 23, 870
5,503
-16,473 7, 140
-19, 141 12, 810 -3, 009

i Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and
the U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
1
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

12, 362
23, 696
8,643
18, 826
14, 403
30, 187
52, 703
34, 769
10, 948
16, 792
18, 334
6,630
14, 971
-326
3,965
16, 158
1,637
15, 819

Allocations
of
special
drawing
rights
(SDRs)

1, 139
1, 152
1, 139

1,152

1,093

Statistical
discrep)ancy

U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
Of
Total
net 1
which: (unad(sum of
Seasonal justed,
the
adjust- end of
items
with sign ment
reversed) discrep- period)
ancy
-2, 654
- 1, 620
5,753
10, 367
-2, 323
11, 398
21, 140
29, 640
-42
3,430
1, 165
9,309
-455 -3, 122
2,000
8,857
6,073
-206
18, 151
1,355
2,676 -3,291
2, 139
2,736
-340
10, 901
1, 221
7,637

14, 378
15, 883
16, 226
18, 747
19, 312
18, 650
18, 956
26, 756
21, 655
21, 268
18, 557
18, 956
21, 491
21, 943
22, 994
26, 756
30, 410
29, 582

NOTE.—Data revised for first quarter.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

Page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits.... *
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function.
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

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