Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1978
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95th Congress, 2d Session •1-1 ^of®^5 -• Economic indicators T September 1978 Prepared for the joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1978 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman LYLE E. GRAMLEY WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23; 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, B.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the second quarter, gross national product rose $95.5 billion or 20.6 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 8.7 percent from the first quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at an 11.0 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALQ 2,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALQ 2,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,600 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,400 1,200 1,200 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,000. 1,000 I 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1976 1975 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF fOMMSRCE 1978 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of currerit dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ra1bes] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Go\rernment purchases of goods and services Export s and imp>orts of goodIs and sen/ices Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total 796.3 490.4 868.5 535.9 935. 5 579.7 982.4 618. 8 1, 063. 4 668. 2 1, 171. 1 733.0 1, 306. ft 809.9 1, 412. 9 889.6 1, 528. 8 979. 1 1, 700. 1 1, 090. 2 1, 887. 2 1, 206. 5 120.8 131.5 146. 2 140.8 160. 0 188.3 220.0 214.6 190.9 243.0 297.8 4.9 2.3 1.8 3.9 1.6 -3.3 7. 1 6.0 20.4 7.4 -11. 1 45.6 49.9 54.7 62.5 65. 6 72.7 101.6 137.9 147.3 163.2 175.5 40.6 47.7 52.9 58.5 64. 0 75.9 94.4 131.9 126.9 155.7 186.6 180.2 198.7 207.9 218.9 233. 7 253. 1 269.5 302.7 338.4 359.5 394.0 1, 806. 8 1, 167. 7 1, 867. 0 1, 188. 6 III.. 1, 916. 8 1, 214. 5 IV.._ 1, 958. 1 1, 255. 2 272.5 295. 6 309.7 313.5 — 8.5 -5.9 -7.0 -23.2 170.9 178. 1 180.8 172.1 179.4 184.0 187.8 195.2 1, 992. 0 1, 276. 7 2, 087. 5 1, 322. 9 322.7 345.4 — 24. 1 -5.5 181.7 205.4 205.8 210.9 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977:1 1978:1 II... i This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 33. Total National defense l Nondefense State and local Final sales 129.9 145. 1 71.5 76.9 76.3 73.5 70.2 73.5 73.5 77.0 83.7 86.8 94.3 19.5 21.2 21. 2 22. 1 26. 0 28.6 28.7 34. 1 39.4 43.1 50.8 89. 3 100.7 110.4 123.2 137.5 151. 0 167. 3 191. 5 215.4 229. 6 248. 9 786.2 860.8 926.2 978.6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 6 1, 404. 0 1, 539. 6 1, 689. 9 1, 871. 6 375.0 388.8 399. 5 412. 5 138.3 142.9 146. 8 152.2 91.9 93.7 94,4 97.1 46.4 49. 3 52.4 55. 1 236.7 245. 9 252. 7 260.3 1, 796. 5 1, 850. 0 1, 894. 9 1, 945. 0 416.7 424.7 151.5 147.2 97.9 98.6 53.6 48. 6 265.2 277. 6 1, 975. 3 2, 067. 4 90.9 98.0 97.5 95.6 96. 2 102. 1 102.2 11L 1 mi Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exp»orts of gc>ods Gross iprivate do mestic aiad service£ irivestment Personal conGross Change national sumpNonResi- in busition product Net Exports Imports resiexpend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Period 1, 007. 7 1967_ 1968. -_ -_ 1, 051. 8 1, 07a 8 1969 1, 075. 3 1970 1, 107. 5 1971. 1972.. __ 1, 171. 1 M73_._ _ 1, 235. 0 1974_. _ 1, 217. 8 1, 202. 3 1975. 1, 271. 0 1976. 1, 332. 7 1977. 603.2 633. 4 655. 4 66R9 691.9 733. 0 767. 7 760. 7 774 6 819.4 857.7 103.5 108.0 114. 3 110. 0 108. 0 116. 8 131. 0 130.6 113.6 118.9 129.8 37.2 42.8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59.7 45. 0 38. 8 47.8 57.7 1977:1—. 1, 306. 7 II_— 1, 325. 5 III— jl, 343. 9 IV... 11, 354. 5 846.6 849. 5 858. 0 876.6 12a8 129.1 130. 8 132. 5 53. 5 58.0 58.8 60.3 1978: 1— . 1, 354. 2 II... 1, 382. 6 873. 5 886. 3 133. 8 140.5 59. 5 59.9 as Governrnent purebases of good s and serdees Tji' Total State and local Federal ni .rinal sales 50.7 58.9 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79. 9 77. 1 67. 5 80.5 88. 7 248. 3 259.2 256.7 250.2 249. 4 253. 1 252. 5 257. 7 262. 6 262.8 269. 2 125.3 128. 3 121. 8 15.9 22.6 15.4 9. 5 54.2 58.5 62.2 67. 1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93. 0 90.0 95.9 98.2 110.7 103.9 102. 1 96. 6 95. 8 96.5 96.6 101.6 123. 1 130.9 134. 9 139. 5 145. 5 151. 0 155.9 161. 8 166. 1 166. 2 167. 6 10. 0 12. 2 11.2 11.0 12. 5 3. 1 97.4 98.9 100. 8 96. 0 85. 9 87.9 88.2 92. 9 262.8 267. 9 271.7 274.5 98.7 101.3 102. 9 103. 6 164. 1 1, 300. 9 166. 6 1, 315. 5 168.8 1, 331. 7 170.9 1, 347. 1 12.3 12. 7 2.9 99. 1 ', 108.4 1 96. 2 97. 1 272.1 271.9 101.2 97. 1 12.0 8. 7 10.6 4,3 6.6 9.4 16.5 8.0 ~9. 8 6. 7 8.9 5.8 7.5 -.4 -1.3 1.4 —.6 -3.3 7.6 11.3 1 i 170. 8 174.8 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1,071.0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 209. 9 1,212. 1 1, 264. 4 1, 323. 8 1,341. 8 1, 369. 9 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100] Period Gross national product Persona consump tion expe]aditures Total Gross ]private dom estic invesi ,ment Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential goods goods fixed fixed Expor ts and Governnlent purimports of goods chases c)f goods and scjrvices and se rvices Exports Imports Federal State and local 1967. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 79.02 82.57 86.72 91.36 96. 02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 02 127. 15 133. 76 141. 61 81.3 84.6 88.5 92.5 96.6 100.0 105.5 116. 9 126. 4 133. 1 140.7 87.4 90.7 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101.6 108. 4 117.7 124. 4 129.5 81.9 85.3 89.4 93. 6 96.6 100.0 107. 9 123. 8 133.4 138.2 145. 0 78.8 82.0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100.0 104. 7 113. 6 123.2 131.6 141. 0 79.3 82.6 86. 6 91. 3 96.4 100. 0 103. 8 115. 3 132. 2 138. 4 146.7 77.0 80.7 87.7 90. 6 94, 9 100.0 110. 8 122. 3 132. 8 142. 5 159.4 84. 0 85. 3 87.9 93. 1 96. 6 100.0 116.2 148. 3 163.6 170. 1 178.7 80. 1 80. 9 83. 3 89. 1 93.5 100. 0 118. 2 171. 0 188.0 193. 5 210.3 72. 6 76.4 80.0 86. 4 92. 6 100.0 105.8 115. 9 127.5 134. 4 142.7 72. 5 76.9 81.9 88. 3 94. 5 100.0 107. 3 118.4 129.7 138. 1 148. 5 1977:1 II III IV 138. 27 14a86 142. 63 144. 56 137.9 139. 9 141. 6 143.2 128. 4 128.9 129.5 130. 9 142. 4 144.7 145. 7 147. 0 137.4 139. 7 142. 3 144. 4 142. 5 145. 0 147.9 151.2 152.3 157. 6 160.6 166. 1 176. 1 180.0 179.4 179. 2 208. 9 209. 3 212. 9 210.2 140. 1 141. 1 142.7 146. 9 144.3 147.6 149.7 152.3 1978: I II 147. 10 150. 98 146.2 149. 3 133. 1 135.7 150.4 154.4 147. 1 149.9 153. 6 156. 7 168. 6 175.7 183.3 189.4 213. 8 217. 2 149. 6 151.5 155. 2 158.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national p roduct Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Period 5.8 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 9. 1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10. 1 11. 6 8. 1 __ 8.2 11.2 11.0 13.7 14. 0 11. 1 1977: I II..... III IV 8.9 7.1 1978: I 20. 6 II Implicit price deflator Gross ciomestic ] >roduct Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index Current dollars Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 2.7 4.4 2.6 —.3 3. 0 5.7 5.5 -1.4 -1.3 5.7 4.9 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4. 1 5.8 9.7 9. 6 5.2 5.9 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 6.0 9.9 9.4 5. 6 6.2 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4. 0 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.6 6.3 5.7 9.1 7.8 5.0 8.1 10.1 11.5 7.9 8.5 11.0 10. 9 2.7 4.4 2.6 —.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 — 1. 1 5.6 4.8 3.0 4,5 5. 1 5.3 5. 1 4. 1 5.7 9.3 9.7 5.2 5.8 3. 1 4.4 5.0 5.3 5. 0 4. 1 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.7 6. 1 3. 0 4. 4 5. 0 5. 2 4. 9 4. 0 5. 9 9.9 9. 3 5.7 6. 3 7. 3 5.9 5.7 3. 2 6.0 7.7 5. 1 5.5 6.6 7. 3 4,6 6.5 7.0 7.4 4.7 6.8 13. 3 7. 1 5.8 5.8 3.5 5.7 7.7 5. 1 5.8 6.4 7.4 4.5 6.7 6. 8 7. 5 4. 6 7.0 7.2 11.0 7.1 10.8 7.0 11.0 6.7 20.1 —.4 7.1 10.9 7. 1 10.9 7.0 11.0 a ij^i NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. ia 9 11.2 9.5 as Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Cijrrent-dol lar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars) i Gross d omestic prodt ct of nonfin ancial corp(>rate busi ness (billic>ns of doll ars) Period Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption Compenallowances Indirect sation Net inwith business of 3 employ- terest capital taxes ees consumption adjustment Current dollars 1972 dollars 452. 9 498. 4 541. 8 560. 6 _ 602. 5 671. 0 752. 0 808. 8 874. 1 988. 5 1, 103. 2 545. 8 581. 6 607. 3 600. 6 619. 3 671. 0 720. 4 695. 0 680.0 730. 0 769. 3 1} 048. 5 I, 093. 3 1, 124. 6 1, 146. 3 750. 2 766. 9 776. 7 783. 6 1. 1. 1. 1. 398 426 448 463 . 149 . 149 . 151 . 152 . . . . 1978: I _ _ _ _ ll, 161. 6 II i 1, 233. 0 783.6 811.9 1. 482 1. 519 . 155 . 153 . 145 . 145 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977:1 II... Ill— IV___ 1 0.830 . 857 . 892 . 933 . 973 1. 000 1. 044 1. 164 1.285 1. 354 1. 434 0.072 . 074 .079 . 088 . 094 . 093 . 095 . 116 . 142 . 146 . 150 Total Profits tax liability 0.535 0. 016 0. 123 0. 084 0. 051 . 553 .017 . 124 . 058 .089 . 055 . 094 . 589 . 022 . 109 . 045 . 103 .628 . 028 .086 . 645 . 048 . 110 . 029 . 095 . 107 . 661 . 028 .050 . 110 .055 . 112 . 032 . 105 . 699 . 061 . 123 . 796 . 043 . 086 . 136 . 848 . 113 . 060 . 045 . 042 .073 . 136 .891 . 139 . 952 . 044 . 077 . 140 . 148 140 139 140 142 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to~the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. * Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corpo rate profi ts with inventc)ry valuai ion and capit al consuniption aidjustmen ts . 932 .946 . 955 . 973 1.008 1. 017 . 043 .043 . 044 . 045 . . . . 134 148 158 151 .046 .045 . 129 . 157 Profits after4 tax 0.072 . 066 . 055 . 041 . 046 . 057 .050 . 024 . 053 .066 .071 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 6. 873 7. 105 7. 139 7. 132 7.374 7.595 7. 780 7. 504 7.777 8. 045 8. 190 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 676 929 198 473 757 024 440 971 597 166 794 7. 7. 7. 8. 550 709 884 027 . 075 .078 . 076 . 077 .059 .070 .082 . 074 8. 8. 8. 8. .071 .086 .057 .071 8. 198 8. 280 097 152 257 252 8. 264 8. 434 < With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees 1 Propri etors' incom<2 with inventory valuation anc capital consunaption adjust ments Farm 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 . Nonfarm Corpor ate profits5 with inventory valuation and capital consumptio Q adjusted ente "R fmtal income of persons with, capital consumption adjustment Profits with inv entory valuat,ion adjustment and Twithout c«tpital consum ption adjiistment Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Total Total Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 70.2 79.5 19.4 18.6 18.1 18.6 20. 1 21.5 21. 6 21.4 22. 4 22.5 22.5 79. 3 85.8 81.4 67. 9 77.2 92. 1 99. 1 83. 6 95. 9 127. 0 144. 2 75. 6 82. 1 77.9 66. 4 76. 9 89.6 97.2 86. 5 107.9 141.4 159. 1 77.3 85.6 83. 4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 126. 9 120. 4 155. 9 173. 9 1.7 — 3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 5. 0 -6.6 -18. 6 -40. 4 -12.4 -14. 5 -14. 8 3.7 3.7 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -2.9 -12.0 -14. 4 -14. 9 24.3 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 69. 0 78. 6 84.3 95. 4 471.9 655. 8 519.8 7144 57L 4 767.9 609.2 798.4 650.3 858. 1 715. 1 951.9 799. 2 1,064.6 875.8 1, 136. 0 931. 1 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 2 1, 036. 8 1, 515. 3 1, 153. 4 12.1 12. 0 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23. 5 18.4 20.2 4&9 51.4 52. 3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60.9 ea 5 1977:1 II III IV 1, 447. 5 1, 499. 3 1, 537. 6 1, 576. 9 1, 107. 9 1, 140. 5 1, 165. 8 1, 199. 7 19.4 20.0 16.5 25. 1 76. 1 78.9 80.8 82.3 22. 5 22. 4 22.4 22.7 129.9 143. 7 154. 8 148.2 144.5 158. 5 169. 9 163.5 164.8 175. 1 177. 5 178.3 -20.3 -16. 6 -7.7 -14.8 -14. 6 -14.8 -15.0 -15.3 91.7 93.7 97. 3 99.0 1978:1 II 1, 603. 1 1, 241. 0 1, 688. 1 1, 287. 8 21.9 24.0 83. 1 86. 1 22. 8 22.2 132. 6 163.4 148.7 180. 6 172. 1 205. 5 -23. 5 -24.9 -16. 1 -17.2 101.7 1046 1 Includes employer contributions for social Insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondura :>le goods Durable goo<Is Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durableJ goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable goods * Food Clothing and shoes Retail sales of new passenger cars (nlillions of uiaits) Services Gasoline and oil ! Domestics Imports 1967 490.4 1968___ 535. 9 1969 579. 7 1970 618.8 1971 668.2 1972 733. 0 1973 809. 9 1974 889. 6 1975 __ 979. 1 1976 1, 090. 2 1977_. 1, 206. 5 69. 6 80. 0 85.5 849 97. 1 111. 2 123. 7 122. 0 132. 6 156. 6 178. 4 29. 7 35.8 37.7 349 43. 8 50. 6 55. 2 48.0 53. 4 69. 7 81.5 29.5 32.6 35.0 36. 7 39. 4 448 50.7 54 9 58.0 63.9 71. 3 212. 6 230.4 247.0 264 7 277. 7 299.3 333.8 376. 3 408.9 442.6 479. 0 109. 6 118. 3 126. 1 136. 3 140.6 150.4 168. 1 189.8 209. 6 225. 8 245.2 38.2 41.8 45. 1 46. 6 50. 5 55. 1 61. 3 65. 3 70. 1 75.7 81. 5 17.0 18.4 20.4 22. 0 23.4 249 27. 8 36. 4 39.5 42. 8 46. 5 208. 1 225.6 247.2 269. 1 293.4 322. 4 352. 3 391.3 437.5 491.0 549. 2 7.6 8. 6 8. 5 7. 1 8. 7 9. 3 9. 7 7. 5 7. 1 8. 6 9. 1 0. 8 10 1. 1 1. 3 1. 6 1. 6 1. 8 1. 4 1. 6 1. 5 2. 1 1977:1..... II III____ IV 1, 167. 7 1, 188. 6 1, 214 5 1, 255. 2 173.2 175. 6 177. 4 187.2 81.3 81.2 79.5 840 68. 0 69.9 72.0 75. 3 465.9 473.6 479. 7 496. 9 237. 5 2445 246.4 252. 6 78.5 79.3 81.4 86.7 46. 1 46. 2 46. 0 47.5 528.6 539.4 557. 5 571. 1 9.4 9. 2 8. 9 9.0 1. 9 2. 3 2 o 1978:1 II 1, 276. 7 1, 322. 9 183.5 197. 8 84 1 92.5 72. 1 76.5 501.4 519.3 257.7 267. 8 82.9 87.5 48.3 49. 1 591.8 605. 8 8.7 10.0 1 Total includes other items not shown separately. 4 2.0 2. 1 2. 1. Source : Department of Commerce, Buream of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $8.6 billion (annual rate) in August following increases of $24.2 billion in July and $13.5 billion in June. Wages and salaries rose $3.4 billion in August, compared with $11.0 billion in July. Farm proprietors* income declined slightly again in August, while all other major types of income rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,200 1,800 1,600. 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 800 800 600 600 WAG.E AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 400 400 OTHER INCOME 200 200 100 100 80 80 60 60 I i t u I I LJ 1 I 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 I | \ | j | 1 t L i\ It ! t I I II 1 11 1976 1975 1977 t \ 1 I I I I I I 1.1 1978 ^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCls DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage 3 Rental Total and Other Proprietc >rs' income income Transfer Divi- Personal personal salary labor 1 2 payinterest of dends income disburse- income income ments 5 Farm Nonfarm persons 4 ments * Less: Per- Nonsonal confarm tributions personal for social income 8 insurance 546.5 579.4 633. 8 701.3 7646 805.9 890.1 983.6 32.0 36.2 42. 0 48.7 55. 6 65.1 77.0 90.4 13. 9 14. 3 18.0 32.0 25. 4 23.5 18.4 20,2 51. 2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63.5 70.2 79. 5 18. 6 20. 1 21.5 21. 6 21.4 22.4 22.5 22. 5 22. 9 23. 0 24.6 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.9 43.7 64. 3 69. 3 74.6 84. 1 103.0 115.5 126.3 141.2 79.9 94. 1 104. 1 118.9 140.8 178.2 193.9 208.8 28.0 30. 8 34. 2 42.2 47.7 50.5 55.5 61. 0 780.7 838.0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1, 349. 5 1, 494. 4 1977: Aug.... 1, 540. 7 Sept... 1, 556. 9 Oct 1, 577. 0 Nov 1, 592. 7 Dec 1, 609. 2 991.5 1, 000. 4 1, 014. 1 1, 022. 3 1, 027. 3 92.2 93.5 94.8 96. 1 97.3 15. 0 18.5 22. 1 24.6 28.5 80.8 81.0 81.4 82.2 83.2 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.9 44.1 44.4 45,1 45. 5 48.3 143.7 145, 1 145.3 145.5 147.3 212. 1 213.3 214.2 216. 5 217.2 61. 3 61.6 62.4 62.6 62.8 1, 511. 2 1, 523. 9 1, 540. 1 1, 553. 1 1, 565. 5 1978: Jan 1, 615. 5 1, 625. 0 Feb Mar 1, 646. 3 Apr 1, 669. 4 I, 682. 1 May June — 1, 695. 7 July »_- 1, 719. 9 Aug »__ 1, 728. 4 1, 038. 3 1, 047. 4 1, 066. 6 1, 083. 9 1, 088. 4 1, 098. 4 1, 109. 4 1, 112. 8 98. 7 100.0 101.3 102.7 104. 0 105.4 106. 7 108.0 25.6 21.5 18.6 22.0 24.8 25.3 24.4 24. 0 82.0 83.0 84.4 85. 5 86. 1 86.7 88.0 88.4 23.0 22.8 22. 6 22. 3 22. 1 22. 1 24. 3 24. 4 46.8 47.0 47.2 47.4 48.0 49. 0 49.2 50.3 149. 6 151.4 153.3 154. 8 156. 5 157. 6 159. 1 160. 6 218.1 219.0 220. 3 219. 7 221. 3 220. 8 229.0 230.4 66. 5 67.0 68.0 68.9 69. 0 69. 6 70.3 70.4 1, 574. 7 1, 588. 3 1, 612. 5 1, 631. 9 1, 641. 8 1, 654. 7 1, 679. 7 1, 688. 5 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 801.3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 154. 9 1, 255. 5 1, 380. 9 1, 529. 0 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. --With capital consumption adjustment. fi Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE) 1,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME PERSONAL OUTLAYS 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I ! ! I f ! ! I 1 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME- 2,000 2,000 1970 1978 1971 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE T Period Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals : Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays l Per cjapita dispc>sable Equals : persona ] income Personal saving Current 1972 dollars dollars Bil lions of d ollars 115. 4 630.4 595.3 685. 9 115.3 635. 4 742. 8 116. 3 685. 5 141. 2 801. 3 751. 9 150. 8 901.7 831. 3 984. 6 170.3 913. 0 168. 8 1, 086. 7 1, 003. 0 196. 5 1, 184. 4 1, 116. 3 226. 0 1, 303. 0 1, 236. 1 1977: !_.___ 1, 470. 7 !!___ 1, 508. 6 Ill— 1, 543. 7 I V _ _ 1, 593. 0 222. 7 223. 3 224. 6 233. 3 1972 dollars Saving as percent of Populadispostion able (thou-2 persands) sonal income 35. 1 50.6 57. 3 49. 4 70. 3 71. 7 83. 6 68. 0 66.9 3, 111 3,348 3, 588 3, 837 4,285 4, 646 5,088 5,504 6, 009 3,515 3, 619 3,714 3,837 4, 062 3,973 4, 025 4, 136 4, 271 2, 860 3,020 3,227 3,510 3,849 4, 197 4,584 5, 066 5, 564 3,234 3,265 3,342 3, 510 3, 648 3,589 3, 627 3, 808 3,955 1. 5 3. 0 2. 6 3. 3 5. 9 -2. 2 1. 3 2. 8 3. 3 7. 7 6. 2 7. 8 7. 3 7. 7 5. 7 5. 1 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211, 945 213, 566 213, 191 216, 856 Season ally ad; usted annlual rates 52. 2 5, 772 4, 185 67. 5 5, 934 4, 241 74.3 6, 077 4,293 73.7 6, 250 4, 365 5,401 5,487 5,595 5, 770 3, 916 3,922 3, 953 4,030 1. 1 5. 5 5. 0 6. 9 4. 2 5. 3 5. 6 5. 4 216, 216, 217 217, 5,859 6,060 4, 009 4,060 2.7 5. 9 217, 897 218, 290 1, 195. 8 1, 217. 8 1, 244. 8 1, 285. 9 1978:I____ 1, 628. 9 237. 3 1, 391. 6 1, 309. 2 !!.__ 1, 682. 4 249. 1 1, 433. 3 1, 357. 0 82. 4 76. 3 6,387 6, 566 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the period. Current dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Do!lars 1969 745. 8 1970 801. 3 1971 859. 1 1972 942.5 1973 1, 052. 4 1974 1, 154. 9 1975 1, 255. 5 1976 _.___ 1, 380. 9 1977 1, 529. 0 1, 248. 0 1, 285. 3 1, 319. 1 1, 359. 6 Per cap>ita personal ccmsumption exp enditures 4, 370 4, 399 .5 5. 6 7.4 5.3 206 603 073 541 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and BureauA of the Census). INCOME In the second quarter, net farm income before inventory adjustment rose $4.2 billion (annual rate) while income after inventory adjustment rose $2.2 billion, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAI^ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALi} 120 120 100 .100 GROSS FARM INCOME BEFORE INVENTORY 80 ADJUSTMENT 60 NET FARM INCOME AFTER INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 40 40 \ /N *. / 20 V 10 10 1970 1971 1972 1975 1974 1973 1977 1976 * SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAt RATES SOURCEVD£PARTMEUT OF AGRICULTURE 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona 1 income received by tota! farm po pulation Income resceived frc>m farmin S Gross income be; "ore inven tory adjustnlent Period From From From all farm nonfarm ] sources sources sources Total 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977:1 II III... 27.5 28.8 34.6 48.9 45. 2 44.5 41. 2 43. 0 IV, 1978: I _ _ II 13.0 13.5 16.9 29. 2 23. 4 21.9 16.9 18.3 14.5 15.3 17.8 19.7 21.8 22. 7 24. 4 24. 7 Gas1i receipts from inarketing s 58.6 60. 6 70. 1 95.5 100. 0 96.9 104. 1 108. 1 108. 1 106. 7 102. 7 114.8 Livestock Total Crops and products Billioiis of dolla rs 50. 5 29. 6 21. 0 52. 9 30. 6 22. 3 61.2 35.7 25.5 87. 1 45. 9 41. 1 92. 4 41. 4 51. 1 88. 2 43. 0 45. 1 46.2 94.5 48.3 96. 1 47.6 4a5 97.6 46.3 51.3 4&6 95.7 49. 1 47.8 91.3 43.5 49.5 99.6 50. 1 115.8 122.5 102.2 109.0 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney inome furnished by farms. 2 3 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is uteld constant within a year. 33-908 °—78 52.7 57.5 49.5 51.5 Nettx3 farm oper ators Production expenses Before inventory adjustment 44. 4 47. 4 52. 3 65.6 72.2 75.9 83.0 88.0 87.5 87.0 86.0 91.4 14,1 13.2 17.8 29.9 27.7 21. 1 21. 1 20. 1 20.6 19. 7 16.7 23.4 93. 5 96.0 22. 3 26.5 Net incc)me per farm abfter inventory adjustmeiat* After invenCurrent 1967 4 tory adjust-2 dollars dollars ment Dol lars 14.2 4, 800 4,130 14.6 5,040 4,160 18.7 6,530 5,210 33.3 11, 810 8,870 26. 1 9,350 6,330 215 8,850 5,490 18.8 6,850 4,020 20.6 7,590 4, 180 19. 6 7,240 4,090 20.2 7,460 4, 130 16.8 6, 210 3,390 25.5 9, 420 5,080 22.3 24.5 8,320 9,140 * Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price Index. Source: Department of Agriculture, 4,410 4,730 CORPORATE PROFITS According to revised estimates for the second quarter, profits before tax rose $33.4 billion while after-tax profits rose $18.4 billion. About one-fourth of the increase was due to a rebound from the effects of the severe weather and coal strike in the first quarter. 205.5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 1970 1971 SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profit s (before tax) wit i inventc3ry valu*ition adjustn lent * Prolfits after tax Dome ?tic indu stries Period > onfinanc ;ial Total 2 Total 1967 1968 1969 1970... _ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975____ 1976 1977 1977: I II III IV 1978: I II 75.6 82. 1 77.9 66. 4 76. 9 89. 6 97.2 86. 5 107.9 141. 4 159. 1 144. 5 158. 5 169.9 163.5 148. 7 180. 6 72.6 7&9 74. 2 62. 6 72. 4 84.7 90. 4 76. 9 101. 8 133. 2 149.5 134. 8 148. 1 159. 5 155.6 139. 2 168.9 Financial Total3 Manufacturmg Wholesale and retail trade 63.6 68. 5 62. 9 50. 1 58.2 69,3 74. 1 62. 5 88.9 115.6 128. 6 115. 1 128. 1 137.6 133. 7 116.6 144. 6 37. 9 41.2 36. 8 27. 1 32. 4 40.6 44. 1 36. 6 48. 3 65.6 74 7 66.4 77.4 74. 7 80.2 69.8 87.8 8.9 10. 1 10. 1 9.4 11.7 13.3 14. 7 12. 9 20.7 24,0 24. 0 20. 6 22.8 30. 6 22. 1 16.7 22.0 9. 0 10. 4 11. 3 12.6 14.1 15.4 16. 2 14. 4 13.0 17.5 20. 9 19. 7 19.9 21.9 21. 9 22. 7 24.3 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 8 3 Includes 8 Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 77.3 85. 6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96. 2 115. 8 126. 9 120. 4 155.9 173. 9 164. 8 175. 1 177.5 178.3 172. 1 205.5 32.5 39. 4 39.7 34. 5 37.7 41. 5 48. 7 52. 4 49. 8 64. 3 71.8 68.3 72. 3 72. 8 73. 9 70.0 85.0 44.9 46.2 43. 8 37.0 443 54 6 67. 1 74 5 70.6 91. 7 102. 1 96.5 102.8 104 8 1044 102. 1 120.5 20. 1 21.9 22. 6 22. 9 23.0 24 6 27. 8 31. 0 31.9 37. 9 43. 7 41. 5 42.7 44. 1 46. 3 47. 0 48. 1 247 24 2 21. 2 14 1 21.3 30. 0 39. 3 43.6 38. 7 53. 8 58.4 55. 0 60. 1 60. 6 58. 1 55. 1 72.4 rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -1.7 — 3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 -5. 0 — 6. 6 -18.6 — 40. 4 — 12.4 — 14 5 -14.8 -20.3 — 16. 6 — 7. 7 -148 -23.5 -24.9 GROSS PRIVATE According to revised estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment rose $14.5 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays rose $8.1 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases increased $6.4 billion. Residential investment outlays increased $5.0 billion, inventory investment amounted to $20.1 billion, up $3.4 billion from the first quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO -NONRESIDENIT1AL FIXED IN\/ESTMENT 340 -GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT s^\ *** 300 120 PRODUCERS' - DLARABLE EQUIP/*WMS*^ 260 \ 100 r- >• ^ ^^. 220 - 80 180 JLJ L 1 BILLIONS OF DOtLARS 120 110 - 1 I 1 ! 1 ++~ STRUCTURES \ 60 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT -x - i- * ^»» »•*•*% 50 100 t 90 I 1 1 t t f 1 1 1 ! ! I I 1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 70 60 50 1974 1975 1976 1975 1974 1978 1977 1977 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE! DEPARTAMNT OF COMMERCE 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresident ial fixed investm<3nt Gross private domes- Period tic investment 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974____ 1975 1976___ 1977 1978:1 II.. _ „ ... Total 297. 8 82. 1 89. 3 98.9 100. 5 104. 1 116.8 136.0 150. 6 150. 2 164. 6 190. 4 29.5 31.6 35. 7 37. 7 39.3 42. 5 49. 0 54. 5 53.8 57. 3 63.9 28.2 30.4 34. 3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46.9 51. 8 51. 3 54. 7 61.0 52. 6 57.7 63.3 62. 8 64. 7 74. 3 87.0 96. 2 96. 4 107.3 126. 5 48.0 53.4 58. 9 58. 1 59.9 69. 1 80. 1 88. 2 87. 4 97.5 116.7 28.6 34.5 37.9 36.6 49.6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51. 5 68.2 91. 9 27.2 33. 1 36.3 35. 1 47.9 60. 3 64. 3 52.7 49.5 65. 8 88.9 272. 5 295. 6 309. 7 313. 5 180.6 187. 2 193.5 200. 3 59. 3 63. 4 65.4 67.4 56. 4 60.4 62.7 64. 5 121. 4 123. 8 128. 1 132. 8 111. 0 113.8 118. 6 123. 4 81. 6 91. 4 94. 3 100. 2 322. 7 205.6 68. 5 76.6 65.2 73.4 137. 1 143.5 127. 2 132. 9 100. 3 105. 3 345.4 220. 1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. farm structures farm 243.0 1977:1 II III—. IV_ Non- Total Non- 220.0 .ProT) Non- 214. 6 190.9 _ _ Total Prod ucers' dur able equip>ment Total 120. 8 131. 5 146. 2 140. 8 160. 0 188. 3 __ Strucjtures Resid ential fis:ed investment Farm structures farm 0.7 Change in business inv entories ducers' dur- able equipment Total 0.7 10. 1 .9 9. 4 Nonfarm -10.7 10. 2 15. 6 9. 4 7. 6 9. 2 3. 7 5. 1 8. 8 14. 7 10. 8 -14. 3 12. 2 15. 0 1. 6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1. 5 1. 6 10.3 17. 0 21. 9 13. 1 11. 1 16. 5 22.0 10.4 1. 3 1. 4 1.7 1.8 16.7 20.1 16. 9 22. 1 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .8 .9 1.0 .6 1.2 1. 1 1. 2 1. 2 1. 1 1.5 1.3 1.5 78.6 88.4 91. 2 97. 5 1. 6 97. 3 102. 1 .9 1. 1 1.6 7.7 3.8 6. 4 9.4 17. 9 8.9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 12.3 percent in 1978, according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in late July and August. Spending in 1977 was 12.7 percent above the 1976 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {RATIO SCALQ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALQ 20 20 1970 1978 1971 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts <3f plant and eqtlipment proj ects3 Es;penditur€is for plan t and equipment Mi inufacturi ng Period Total l Total NcDnmanuf acturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munition ties cation Commercial and Manufacturing Public utilities 2 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975.. 1976 1977 1978* 81. 21 88. 44 99.74 112. 40 112. 78 120. 49 135. 80 152. 50 29.99 31. 35 38. 01 46. 01 47.95 52.48 60. 16 68. 01 14. 15 15. 64 19. 25 22. 62 21. 84 23. 68 27. 77 SI. 66 15. 84 15. 72 18.76 23. 39 26. 11 28. 81 32.39 86. 35 51. 22 57. 09 61. 73 66.39 64.82 68. 01 75.64 84. 49 2. 16 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 4. 00 4. 50 4. 76 493 5.72 6.03 6. 66 7.57 7.45 6. 93 8. 00 15. 30 17.00 18.71 20.55 20. 14 22. 28 25.80 28. 95 10.77 11.89 12.85 13. 96 12. 74 13.30 15.45 17. 71 other 18. 05 20. 07 21. 40 22. 05 20. 60 20. 99 22. 97 25. 07 28. 00 35. 21 47. 57 52.49 48. 24 51. 05 66. 73 22.22 28. 60 38. 13 45. 74 34 50 29. 66 32. 54 1977:1 II III 130. 134. 140. 138. 16 24 38 11 56. 43 59. 46 63.02 61.41 26.30 27. 26 29. 23 28. 19 30. 13 32. 19 33. 79 33.22 73.74 74. 78 77. 36 76.70 4. 24 4. 49 4.74 4.50 7. 29 6.96 6. 85 6.88 25.35 25. 29 26. 22 26. 23 14. 19 15. 32 16. 40 15. 82 22. 67 22.73 23. 14 23.27 15. 26 15. 15 19. 81 16.54 9. 76 3. 79 10. 23 7.99 1978: I II 144. 25 150. 76 155. 13 158. 98 61. 57 67. 20 68. 66 73. 62 28.72 31.40 38. 11 33. 89 32. 86 35.80 36.64 39. 72 82.68 83. 56 86.47 85. 36 4.45 4.81 4.80 5. 07 8.46 7.40 8.98 7. 18 27.92 28. 46 29. 26 30. 22 17.07 18. 18 24. 76 24. 71 17.41 18. 10 7.98 7. 78 IV, III * _ _ IV *.„ i Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 10 43. 44 42. 90 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. « Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1978. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment Increased by 156,000 in August, while unemployment decreased by 225,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED "too 100 90 80 10 0 l i n - n l m n i i n i l t M i i i m i h i n i n i n I n n.t i i.n i I t i i n u r i i l n i n i n n h i M i I I i n I t i i ri l i M i l i i i i i l Q 1970 1971 1972 1973 * 1974 1975 1976 1977 * 1978 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period Noninstitutional population COUNCH. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total labor Civilian Unem- force Civilian employ- ploy- (includ- labor ing ment force ment Armed Forces) Total 15 weeks and over Labor participation rate (per_ _ j.\ 2 cent) 88, 714 91, Oil 92, 613 94, 773 97, 401 84, 409 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 2,311 3,452 80, 957 2,709 3,492 82, 443 3,490 3,380 81, 403 3,272 3,297 84, 188 3,297 3,244 87, 302 Seascmally adj usted 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 812 937 2,483 2,339 1,911 61.4 61.8 61. 8 62. 1 62.8 92, 315 91, 247 92, 230 92, 473 92, 623 6, 757 99, 751 6,437 99, 887 6,221 100, 205 6,346 101, 009 5,880 101, 048 97, 614 97, 756 98, 071 98, 877 98, 919 90, 793 91, 088 91, 383 92, 214 92, 609 3,224 3,199 3,243 3,357 3,323 87, 569 87, 889 88, 140 88, 857 89, 286 3,253 3, 306 3,263 3,285 3,220 6,821 6,668 6,688 6,663 6,310 1,800 1,834 1,848 1,829 1,797 62.8 62.8 62. 9 63.3 63.3 91, 053 91, 185 91, 964 93, 180 93, 851 95, 852 96, 202 96, 116 6,897 6, 739 6,479 5,685 5,457 6,326 6,438 5,931 92, 881 93, 003 93, 266 93, 801 94, 112 94, 819 94, 425 94, 581 3,354 3,242 3,310 3,275 3,235 3,473 3,387 3,360 89, 527 89, 761 89, 956 90, 526 90, 877 91, 346 91, 038 91, 221 2,986 3, 193 3, 164 3,327 3,243 3,458 3,330 3, 294 6, 226 6,090 6, 148 5, 983 6, 149 5,754 6, 193 5, 968 1, 688 1, 568 1,463 1,384 1,358 1,231 1,292 1,215 63. 3 63.2 63.3 63. 5 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.6 148, 263 84, 409 150, 827 85, 935 153, 449 84, 783 156, 048 87, 485 158, 559 90, 546 Uiaadjusted 1977: Aug.. Sept., Oct.. Nov.. Dec.. 158, 899 159, 114 159, 334 159, 522 159,736 1978: Jan*__ Feb.Mar._ Apr. May. June.. July.. Aug.. 159, 160, 160, 160, 160, 160, 161, 161, 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 101, 101, 101, 101, 102, 102, 102, 102, 228 217 536 902 374 671 734 671 99, 99, 99, 99, 100, 100, 100, 100, 107 093 414 784 261 573 618 549 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, Inability to find full-time work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Total Agricultural N onagri cultural Part-time ecoTotal for nomic 1 reasons 91, 040 93, 240 94,793 96, 917 99, 534 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 937 128 313 504 713 928 148 348 Unempl<>yment Civilian einploymenit Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES in August, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.9 percent. Unemployment among non-whites fell to 11.7 percent, a new low for the year. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) •PERCENT* {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 1978 *UN£MPLOYMEm AS PERCfHT OF OVWAN LMOR FORCI IN GROUT SPBOflH). SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total (all civilian workers) Period 1973. 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 _ 4.9 5.6 as .„ „ 7.7 7.0 7.0 6.8 as 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.7 6.2 5.9 Unecaployme nt rate ( percent <yf civiMaia labor f orce in group) By gsex and $tge ]3y select ed grouj:MS By race Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over over 3.2 3.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 5.1 47 5.0 47 46 47 45 45 42 42 3.9 41 41 48 5.5 ao 7. 4 7.0 7. 1 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.6 ai 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.3 ai ai 6.5 145 ia o 19.9 19.0 17,7 17.3 18.3 17.3 17.2 15. 6 16, 0 17.4 17.3 16.9 16. 5 142 16.3 15.6 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 White 43 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 6,1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5. 5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 49 5.3 5.2 ExpeFullBlack rienced wage Housetime and hold and other salary heads workers workers 8.9 45 43 2,9 9.9 5.3 3.3 5. 1 13.9 8.2 5.8 8. 1 13.1 7.3 7.3 5.1 13. 1 ae 4 5 as 143 a5 4 5 6.6 13. 1 as 4 4 6.4 13.7 as 4 4 6.4 13.7 as 4 2 a 2 12. 7 ao 3.9 5.9 12.7 5.9 3.8 5.8 11.8 5.7 5.7 3.6 12.4 5.7 3.7 5. 6 11.8 5.5 3.6 5.4 12. 3 5.6 3.7 5.6 11.9 5.4 5.2 3.6 12.5 5.7 3.9 5.7 11.7 5.5 3.7 5.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) * 7.9 5.2 10.3 10. 1 9. 1 ae 9.8 9.0 9.7 9.6 9.6 a9 8.9 8.6 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.6 ai a3 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6. 6 6. 3 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.6| SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The decrease in unemployment in August was accompanied by an increase in the proportion of unemployed persons who were job losers and a decrease in the proportion who were reentrants to the labor force. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS REENTRANTS ~x^—w 20 20 JOB LEAVERS NEW ENTRANTS OU. 1975 1977 1976 1978 1975 1978 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug.. Sept-. Oet»-_ Nov... Dec... 1978: Jan.,. Feb Mar.. Apr May_. June.. July*.. Aug*._ Unemployment (thousands) 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 6,821 6,668 6,688 6,663 6,310 6,226 6,090 6,148 5,983 6, 149 5, 754 6, 193 5,968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percecit distrib ution of unem- State pirograms Insured Percen t distribiution of unemunem- Special ployment b y duratic>n* pl<Dyment 1>y reasoii i unemployment, ployment all 27 Insured Less New 5-14 15-26 weeks unem- Initial regular benefit3 ReenJob Job than 5 weeks enproclaims and ploy- claims weeks losers leavers trants trants weeks grams 8 (unadover ment (unad- justed) justed) 38.7 43.4 55.4 49. 8 45. 3 46.3 45.3 45. 5 447 43. 4 42.9 41.6 40.3 41.2 42. 5 40.6 41. 3 42. 4 15.7 14.9 10.4 12,2 13. 0 12. 9 12. 9 13. 1 13.3 13.9 13. 6 14.7 13.9 14 5 13.5 14.7 14 1 14 0 30.7 28.4 23.8 26. 0 28. 1 27. 1 27.9 28.6 28.5 29. 8 29. 0 29.4 30. 9 28. 9 29. 2 30.6 30.4 28.8 14 9 13.3 10.4 12. 1 13. 7 13.7 13.9 12. 8 13.6 13.0 145 142 14 9 15.4 14 8 14 1 142 148 51. 0 50. 6 37.0 38.3 41.7 41.5 41. 1 41. 4 42.4 41.3 43.2 43.3 45.8 46.8 48. 1 46.4 49. 0 46.8 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Eico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (BE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 30. 1 31. 0 31. 3 29.6 30.5 32. 4 31.8 31. 3 30.3 30.4 29.8 30.5 30.5 29.9 29.6 32.6 30. 0 33.0 11.0 11. 1 16.5 ias 13. 1 ias 13.4 13. 6 13. 9 14 8 13.8 15.0 12.4 12.0 11.2 11. 1 10. 8 10. 5 7.8 7.3 15.2 18.3 148 12. 6 13.7 13.7 13.3 13. 5 13.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11. 1 9.9 10.2 9.7 Weejkly aver age, thoujsands 1,793 1, 632 246 2,262 363 2,558 3,992 478 4,943 1,173 382 3,822 2,968 1,152 375 3, 112 572 2,473 385 2,751 2,733 535 2, 664 2, 643 368 412 2,624 361 2,649 364 354 2,602 2,853 315 2, 516 346 3,226 259 3,781 344 192 2,461 3,638 2,524 369 143 3,212 102 2,406 326 2,659 2,210 330 60 331 2,369 2, 167 36 2, 194 2,297 348 21 2,392 377 2,581 2, 397 361 2,550 s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). * e± NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 113,000 in August, despite a decline of 66,000 in employment by goods-producing industries. MILLIONS OF "PERSONS* (B^LARGED SCAIQ MILLIONS Of PERSONS* 90 18 —WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE- ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 GOVERNMENT .,-.^70 SERVICES 12 -SERVICE-PRODUCING IND 1111111 in f i n t i n i HI in Hilit111n t u t i..i_.n i t.i m hit i u 22 - - 50 20 \ MANUFACTURING \ 40 \ ^ • •M«**^' ...^ r •" 18 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 fri f f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i I 1 1 1 1 II I 1 | | | 1 || 1 | U 1 I 1 1 II | 1 I M I If -GOODS-PRODUCING •INDUSTRIES 30 \ ..•••...,:„„..•" •»•«*""" ""-SI""Mm, CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 20 1974 1976 1975 1977 1974 1978 1975 1976 1977 1978 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC. ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers;* seasonally adjusted] Groods-prc>ducing iiadustries . Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug.. Sept__ Oct__. Nov__ Dec_._ 1978: Jan.__ Feb.Mar___ Apr... May June__ July "__ Aug »__ Total nonagricultural employ- Total 2 ment 76, 896 78, 413 77, 051 79, 443 82, 142 82, 474 82, 763 82, 902 83, 245 83, 429 83, 719 84, 046 84, 555 85, 223 85, 466 85, 820 86, 003 86, 116 Contract construction Service-pi oducing IndustrieJS TransFinance, Ma nufactui ing Gover nment insurporta- Wholesale tion ance, and Non- Total State and and Services Total Durable Federal and public retail real goods durable trade goods local utilities estate 24, 727 4,015 20, 068 11, 839 24, 697 3,957 20, 046 11, 895 22, 603 3,512 18, 347 10, 679 23, 332 3,594 18, 956 11, 026 24, 229 3, 844 19, 554 11, 480 24, 305 3,893 19, 594 11, 527 24, 360 3,892 19, 612 11, 545 24, 436 3,911 19, 666 11, 604 24, 528 3,950 19, 715 11, 625 24, 526 3,947 19, 868 11, 748 24, 593 3, 916 19, 972 11, 828 24, 733 3,947 20, 075 11, 909 24, 945 4, 053 20, 164 11, 965 25, 351 4,237 20, 216 11, 992 25, 429 4,268 20, 258 12, 029 25, 554 4, 355 20, 287 12, 049 25, 614 4, 379 20, 316 12, 110 25, 548 4,356 20, 270 12, 115 8,229 8, 151 7,668 7,930 8,074 8,067 8,067 8,062 8,090 8,120 8, 144 8, 166 8, 199 8,224 8,229 8,238 8,206 8, 155 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 52, 169 53, 715 54, 448 56, 111 57, 912 58, 169 58, 403 58, 466 58, 717 58, 903 59, 126 59, 313 59, 610 59, 872 60, 037 60, 266 60, 389 60, 568 4,644 4,696 4,498 4,509 4, 589 4,581 4,616 4,610 4,634 4,652 4,628 4,651 4,672 4,709 4,714 4,728 4, 696 4, 730 16,674 17, 017 17,000 17, 694 18, 292 18, 377 18, 431 18, 414 18, 512 18, 610 18, 744 18, 744 18, 849 18, 891 18, 967 19, 064 19, 126 19, 205 4,091 4,208 4,223 4, 316 4,508 4,524 4,545 4,572 4,597 4,611 4,630 4,647 4,670 4,683 4,712 4,737 4,754 4,774 13, 021 13, 617 14, 006 14, 644 15, 333 15, 448 15, 482 15, 533 15, 608 15, 663 15, 693 15, 791 15, 875 15, 962 15, 970 16, 031 16, 153 16, 212 2,663 2, 724 2,748 2,733 2,727 2, 732 2,728 2, 730 2, 727 2, 718 2,736 2,736 2,736 2,744 2, 753 2, 772 2, 763 2,769 11, 075 11, 453 11, 973 12, 215 12, 463 12, 507 12, 601 12, 607 12, 639 12, 649 12, 695 12, 744 12, 808 12, 883 12, 921 12, 934 12, 897 12, 878 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampi« of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based c reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Averag e gross hourly <sarnings Aver age weekly tours Period Total private nonagrioultural ' 37.7 37. 1 37. 0 37. 1 37.1 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 36. 6 36. 1 36.2 36. 1 1975 1976 1977 Manuft icturing Total 40. 6 39.8 39. 9 40. 6 40.7 40.0 39.4 40. 0 40.3 1977: Aug... Sept Got Nov Dec 36. 0 36. 0 36.2 36. 2 36.2 40. 3 40.3 40. 4 40. 5 40.5 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July » Aug* 35.6 35.8 36.2 36.3 36.0 36.1 36.0 35. 9 39.6 39.9 40.6 40.6 40.3 40.4 40.4 40. 3 Overtime 3. 6 3. 0 2.9 3. 5 3.8 , 3.2 2.6 3. 1 3. 4 3.3 3. 3 3.5 3. 5 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.7 3. 6 3.5 3. 5 as 3.5 Total private nonagncultural l Adjusted h ourly earnirigs indexJ —t otal private nonagricmltural Manufacturing Percent eh ange from a year earlier 4 Index, 1 967=100 Current dollars $a 19 1967 dollars 3 Current dollars 3. 36 3. 57 3. 81 4. 08 4.41 4 81 5. 19 5.63 113.2 120.7 129.2 137.7 146. 5 158. 5 172.5 185. 0 198. 5 103. 1 103.8 106.5 109. 9 110.0 107.3 107. 0 8.8 109. 4 7.3 5. 28 5. 32 5.38 5.41 5.42 5. 68 5. 73 5.79 5. 81 5. 83 199. 9 201.2 203. 3 204 1 205. 2 109.2 109. 5 110.2 110. 2 110.3 5.49 5. 52 5.56 5.62 5. 64 5. 68 5. 73 5. 74 5. 90 5.95 5.97 6.00 6.03 6.08 6. 14 6. 17 208.1 208.8 210.2 212. 1 212.8 213.9 215.8 216. 1 111. 0 110.6 110.5 110.6 109.9 109.5 110.0 109.5 $3. 04 3. 22 3. 44 3.67 3. 92 4.22 4.54 4 87 5. 25 1967 dollars 6. 6 1.7 .6 2.2 6.6 7.0 6. 6 6. 4 8. 2 ioa5 7. 2 ai .5 — 2.3 —.2 1.4 .8 7. 1 .4 .7 1.3 .8 .8 8. 1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 .9 .6 .3 7.3 7.9 7.6 7.6 8.1 8.2 8. 4 8. 3 8.4 8.2 8.1 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total prrrate nonagricu Iturali Period Current dollars Manufacturing 1967 dollars ' $104. 38 102. 72 104 93 108. 67 109. 26 104 57 101. 67 103. 40 104.42 $129. 51 133. 73 14a44 15469 166. 06 176. 40 189. 51 207. 60 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 190. 08 191. 52 19476 195. 84 196. 20 103. 81 104.20 105. 62 105. 75 105. 48 228. 90 230. 92 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr 195. 44 197. 62 201. 27 204. 01 104. 23 104 73 105. 82 106. 37 10488 10499 105. 08 104. 39 233. 237. 242. 243. 243. 245. - 1974 1975 1976 1977 - 2oao4 May 205. 05 June July" Aug'- 206. 28 206. 07 J 3 Also includes 226. 89 233. 92 235. 31 236. 12 248. 06 248. 65 other private indostry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for intericdcstry employment shiits and for overtime in manufacturing. i Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Bevised Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers need beginning 1978. 33-908 °—78 3 64 41 38 60 01 63 Percent ch inge from a year € arlier, total prrirate nonagricu Ltural • Current dollars Durrent dollars! $114. 61 119. 46 127. 28 136. 16 145. 43 15445 163. 89 176, 29 189. 53 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Contract construction Wholesale and retail trade $181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 222. 51 235. 69 249. 08 265. 35 28493 296. 68 $90. 78 95.66 100. 39 105. 65 111.04 118. 33 126. 75 133. 39 142. 52 29492 294 48 300. 66 301.84 302. 13 143. 09 143. 76 146. 40 145. 75 147. 52 287. 87 297. 02 309. 12 314 16 312. 32 319. 29 322. 76 319. 19 147. 93 148. 26 151. 27 152. 92 152. 46 153. 45 154 77 154. 63 6.4 42 6. 5 7.0 6.8 6.2 6. 1 7. 6 1967 dollars 1.0 -1.6 2. 2 3.6 :5 — 43 —2.8 7.5 1.7 1.0 7.3 :6 1.4 8. 1 8.4 8.2 7.7 7.7 7.0 8.1 8.9 8.1 8.3 8.8 8.4 1.8 1.4 :8 .9 .6 1.6 2.2 1.0 .8 1.0 .6 *1 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hours of 2all pers<>ns Outf nit* Output iuer hour of all p ersons Compe nsation per 1lour 3 Unit labor CO sts Implicit price defla tor 4 NonPriNon~ NonPriNonPriNonPrivate farm Private Private Nonvate farm vate farm vate farm farm farm business business business business business business business business business business sector business sector business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Period 1967= = 100; qua rterly dat a seasoniilly adjuslbed 98.0 100.0 105. 1 108.3 98.1 100. 0 105.4 ioae 100.3 100. 0 101.7 104.5 100.0 100.0 102.1 105.3 97.8 100.0 103. 3 103.7 98.1 100.0 103. 2 103. 1 947 100.0 107.6 115. 1 945 100, 0 107. 3 1143 96.8 100. 0 104 1 111. 0 96.4 100. 0 1040 110,9 97.2 100. 0 103.9 108.8 96.8 100. 0 1040 108.6 107,3 110.3 117.6 124 5 121. 5 107.4 110.2 117.8 125.0 121.9 102. 8 102.3 106. 0 110.3 110.7 104 0 103.7 107.6 112.4 112.9 104 4 107.8 110.9 112.8 109.7 103.2 106. 3 109.5 111.1 108.0 123.3 131.5 138, 9 150.0 164 1 121.9 129.9 137.4 147.8 161.8 118. 1 121.9 125.2 132. 9 149. 5 118. 1 122.2 125.5 133. 0 149. 8 113.9 118.9 123.1 130.2 143. 0 1140 119. 1 122.8 127.9 141.3 118. 8 126. 5 133. 2 127. 0 133. 6 na 8 106.1 109.0 112.7 108.0 111.4 115.6 112.0 116. 1 118. 1 110.0 1140 115.6 180.3 196.3 212.7 177,8 192.9 208.9 161. 1 169.2 180. 1 161.6 169.2 180.7 157. 4 165. 4 1749 156.3 164 8 1746 125.0 126.2 127. 1 127.6 125. 2 126.9 127.7 128. 1 108.6 108.9 108. 8 109.3 111. 1 111.3 111.3 112. 0 115. 1 115. 9 116.8 116.8 112.6 114 1 114.7 1144 190.3 194.2 198.5 202.7 186.8 191.0 1949 198.8 165.3 167. 6 170.0 173.6 165.8 167.4 169.9 173.8 162.4 1645 166.3 168.5 161.8 163.4 165.7 168.2 131.0 133.0 134.6 135.8 111.0 113.1 112.9 113.8 113.8 115.7 115.9 116.7 117.6 117.2 118.9 119. 1 115.2 114.9 116.1 116,4 206.8 210.0 215.2 218.9 203.0 206.5 . 130. 5 132. 5 134.2 135. 5 210.9 215.0 175.9 179. 2 181.0 183.8 176.3 179.7 181. 6 1848 170. 6 174.0 176.3 178.4 170.0 173.6 176. 4 178.1 1978:1 !!».„. 135. 3 138.5 136. 1 139.7 115.0 117. 5 117.9 120.7 117.7 117.9 115.4 115.7 225. 1 229.5 221.2 225. 5 191.4 1947 191.6 1948 181, 3 186,5 180.6 185.2 3.2 2.9 3.9 47 2.9 3.3 40 45 47 44 49 4.5 3.1 41 10.5 1966_. 1967., _™ 1968 1969 1970_ 1971 — 1972.. 1973 1974 .. . ,« 1975,—. 1976-. 1977 _—. 1976:1 II III..... IV 1977:1—-— II..—. II.. IV Perceiit change ; quarterlyf data at seasonall y adjuste<i annual rates 5.5 2.0 5. 1 3.0 1966 1967._ 1968_, 1969., , 6.0 1.9 5.4 3.0 2.3 -.3 1.7 2.7 3.3 —.0 2. 1 3.2 3.2 2.3 3.3 .3 2.5 1.9 3.2 -.2 7.0 5. 6 7.6 7.0 6.0 5.8 7.3 6.5 41 3.4 3.8 40 6.7 6.4 3.2 2.7 6.1 6.5 3,5 2.7 1970_ 1971 1972... 1973 .„ 1974_.^ .„ . -. 9 2.8 6. 6 5.9 -2,4 -1. 1 2.6 6.9 6.0 -2. 5 -1.6 -.4 3. 6 41 .4 — 1.2 -.3 3. 7 4 .4 .7 3,2 2.9 1.7 -2.8 .2 2.9 3.1 1.5 -2.8 7.2 6. 6 5.7 8.0 9.4 6.7 6.6 5.8 7.5 9.5 1975— 1976 1977 .... .„. -2.3 6. 5 5.3 -2.5 6.9 5,2 -4.2 2.7 3.5 -43 3.2 3.7 2.0 3.7 1.8 1.9 3.6 1.5 9.9 8. 9 8.4 9.9 8.5 8.3 1976:1 „„_ II III..... IV..... 11.2 4.0 2.8 1.6 11.5 5.7 2.5 1.2 5.2 1,2 g 1. 7 6.4 .4 .3 2.3 5.8 2.8 3.2 — .1 48 5.3 2.2 — 1.0 10.2 8.6 9. 1 8.7 1977:1. II III „„„. IV.— 9.3 6.5 5.0 4.0 9.4 6.2 5.0 3.5 6.3 7.8 -.7 3.4 6.6 7. 1 .7 2.7 2.8 -1.2 5.8 .6 2.7 -.6 9.9 .7 11. 1 42 9. 1 42 9.8 -47 .8 1978:1 II* J 2 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 3,7 3.3 6.6 3. 6 5. 8 12.5 6. 0 12. 7 7.7 5.0 6. 5 7.9 4.7 6.7 10.1 5. 1 5.7 10.6 5.4 5.9 8.7 9.2 8.4 8,3 42 5.6 5.8 8.8 3.8 3.8 6.1 9.4 3.2 5.2 44 5.4 49 41 5.8 6.1 4.3 .8 8.3 6.4 10.3 7.0 8.6 7.2 8.8 8.0 5.3 7.7 43 6.3 5.8 8.1 43 7. 1 5.2 8.2 5.2 49 44 8.7 6.5 4.0 -3.3 1.2 11.9 8.0 12,0 17.4 15.8 6.7 5.8 10.7 Q 8.1 7.2 6.9 9.8 12.0 NOTE,—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in August, following revised increases of 0.7 percent in both June and July. The index for August was 6.2 percent above a year earlier. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION TOTAL INDUSTR AL PRODUCTION 160 140 UTItlTIES 120 MINING 100 160 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1 1 ii-tl in 11 M I t ! r 11 1 1 1574 1975 1976 1978 1977 PERCENT (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 140 90 80 120 70 100 1974 1975 1976 1974 1978 1977 1975 1976 1977 1978 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVSCftS SOURCE. KOAXD OF GOVESNOCS OF THE FEDERM RESERVE ' Period 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974._ 1975 • 1976. 1977-. Total iii dustrial produ Btion Percent Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier 100. 00 9. 2 119. 7 8.4 129.8 —. 4 129. 3 — 8. 9 117. 8 10.2 129.8 5. 6 137. 1 mi 1977: Aug Sept.. Oct Nov_ • _ _ _ Dec 138. 5 138. 9 139. 3 139.7 1978: Jan Feb Mar -_ Apr_-___ _ May June July » .. _•„ Aug" 138.8 139.2 140.9 143.2 143. 9 144. 9 145.9 146. 6 [Seasonally adjusted] prodiiction ind axes, 1967 = 100 M anufactun ng Indu,stry Total Durable Nondurable 87. SB 61.98 SB. 97 6.36 5. 69 118. 9 129.8 129.4 116. 3 129. 5 137. 1 113. 7 127. 1 125. 7 109. 3 121. 7 129.5 126. 5 133. 8 134. 6 126. 4 140. 9 148. 1 113. 1 114. 7 115. 3 112. 8 114 2 117. 8 139. 4 145. 4 143. 7 146. 0 151. 0 156. 5 83. 1 87. 5 84. 2 73. 6 80. 2 82. 4 88. 0 92. 4 87. 7 73. 6 80. 4 81. 9 5.0 138. 6 139. 0 139. 4 139.9 140.5 131. 3 131. 7 132.4 132.7 133. 4 149. 4 149. 5 149. 6 150. 1 150. 9 115. 4 118. 0 119. 6 118. 8 113. 4 155. 7 154. 1 154. 0 154. 2 156.7 82.9 82. 9 82. 9 82. 9 83. 0 82.0 82. 0 82. 4 82. 3 81.9 4.9 4. 5 4. 1 5.2 5.0 5. 2 5.2 6.2 138.7 139.4 141. 4 143.5 144. 3 145. 4 146.4 147.3 131. 1 131.5 134. 4 136. 9 137. 6 138. 8 140.8 141. 9 149. 8 150. 6 151. 4 153. 2 154. 0 154.8 154. 7 155. 2 115.0 114.4 119. 3 127.2 126. 7 128.0 126. 6 126. 1 162. 3 163. 5 159. 5 156. 0 157. 0 157. 7 158. 5 159. 3 81.7 81. 9 82.7 83.7 83.9 84.2 84.6 84.8 81.9 81. 3 81.9 84.0 84. 5 85. 1 85. 6 85. 6 5.2 6.0 6.7 5.9 1 Output as percent of capacity. *1 Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages ot Quarterly data. Utilities Manufswrturing c ipacity utilization rate, p ercent ' Federal Reserve sei•ies ComWharTotal mercel ton Mate- series manuseries * facturrials ing Mining i 83 86 83 77 81 83 91. 8 97. 1 93. 0 80.4 87.5 90.2 82 90. 9 82 91. 1 84 90. 1 92.6 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and \Vfaarton School of Finance. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prod uets Final I*roducte Coiisumer go ods Period Total Total 1967 proportion 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 ._ 1976 . __ 1977 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July » Aug » _ — iias 127.2 „_.„ __ . 47. 82 105.3 106.3 115.7 124.4 125. 1 .— „_-- _ ._ 1349 13&3 136.8 136.5 137.0 137.6 134.9 136.4 138.9 140. 5 140,8 14a9 141.9 142. 5 S7.68 109. 0 114.7 124. 4 131.5 12&9 124. 0 136.2 14a 4 Interim ediate prod ucts Equip meat NonDurable durable goods 7,89 19. 79 no. i 106. 1 na i 118.8 120.6 133.8 125. 6 146. 2 126.3 135.3 121. 4 125.1 141.4 134 1 153. 1 139.6 Materials Supplementary group: Energy total 112. 9 116.7 126. 5 137.2 135.3 12ai 137. 2 145. 1 Construction supplies 6.42 111.0 116.8 12R4 139.8 1345 116.3 132.6 140.8 S9.S9 109.2 111.3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 130. 6 136.9 12. $3 117. 0 119.5 125.2 128.3 Total Busi- Total so. 14 1S.6S 107.0 104 1 118.0 134 2 142.4 128.2 136.3 149.2 IS. 89 100.1 94.7 103.8 114 5 120.0 110.2 1146 12a 2 125. 5 125. 5 128. 8 132.5 144. 7 144.9 1449 145. 2 145. 8 1547 155.6 156.8 155.2 155.8 140. 6 140.7 140. 1 141.2 141.8 1249 125.6 125.0 125. 8 126.2 151. 1 152. 1 152.6 153.5 1540 146. 1 146.5 147.8 148.4 150.4 141.7 143.2 1449 146.5 148.3 137.6 137.9 138.9 139.0 138.8 131.4 141.8 146. 5 151.2 157.5 161.8 160.2 160.5 160.9 160.8 139.9 140.8 141.3 141.8 141.7 141.5 141.7 141.9 125. 4 126.2 129.1 130.8 131.6 152.6 154 2 157.4 159. 3 160.2 161.8 151.6 151.4 151.4 152. 1 152.6 1545 155. 8 156.8 149.2 148.6 147.9 148.5 150.4 139.2 138.6 139.9 143.7 145. 1 132. 5 130.0 129.8 153.8 155.0 147.6 148. 1 143. 8 145.9 147. 5 147.0 146. 9 147. 2 147. 3 isao leas 1343 135.8 165. 3 152. 1 146.4 132.5 133.0 132. 3 129.7 isa i 1342 135. 1 135.2 135. 5 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Diarable manufactu res Primar)r metals Period Total Iron steel 1967 proportion 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ 6. 67 106.6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 108. 9 110.2 1977: Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec 112. 5 109.0 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July » 107.4 AUK* na s 111.2 111.0 106.2 106. 1 1143 115.5 117. 6 122.5 1244 4. SI 1047 96. 1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104 9 ioa4 110. 6 104 6 107.7 104.3 103.8 99.5 96.3 96. 4 109.0 110.5 1145 118.9 Fabricated metal products ery Electrical machinery 9.15 104 4 100.2 116. 0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 135. 0 1448 8.06 108. 1 107.7 122.2 14a 1 143.8 116.5 131. 6 141. 9 S. 27 89. 5 97. 9 108.2 118. 3 108. 7 97.4 110. 6 121. 1 143. 9 1446 135.8 136.4 145.2 147.4 14R 9 149. 7 151.7 144. 2 146.0 124 3 125.5 1243 136. 9 136.9 138. 1 139.5 140.4 142.3 143.5 1447 150. 1 150. 1 151. 5 152.2 152.9 1544 157.2 158.8 144.0 146.4 149. 5 152.3 152,9 1541 155.0 156. 0 5. 93 102.4 ioas 112.1 124.7 1242 109. 9 123.3 130.9 1340 133.6 isas Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserre System. 18 Non- trical ma- 147.3 Non iurable inanufact urea TranspDrtation equip meat Total 122.0 122.2 116.2 118.4 126. 5 130.5 130. 1 130. 1 132. 1 132.9 Motor veMcles and parts Lumber and products At>*% parel products 4.60 1. 64 S.S1 92.3 118. 6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 140.7 159.7 105.6 113.8 120.8 126. 0 116.2 107.6 125. 1 133.4 101.4 104 7 109.4 117.3 1143 107. 6 122. 2 1242 164 4 131.8 137.1 135.7 137.5 138. 1 146.6 138.5 135.5 136. 5 136.9 136.5 13&5 139.0 165.6 168.4 163.0 161.8 isai 165. 1 171.7 16&3 167. 5 169.3 169. 3 Print- Chemicals ing Foods and and pub- prodlishing ucts 4.72 107.0 107. 1 112.7 7.74 8.76 120.4 125.9 143.6 1545 ioa9 1247 120. 6 159.4 147.2 169.3 180.7 112. 8 116.8 120.9 1240 123.4 132.3 137.9 124 1 127. 7 129.0 125. 1 125.8 125.0 1242 125.7 126.2 127.5 182.6 181.3 182.3 183. 1 183.0 139.3 138.3 137.3 139.4 140.4 118. 6 121. 1 122.8 12a 1 125.8 126.8 129. 9 184.4 183.7 185.2 185.5 188.1 190.8 191.4 139.3 140.8 141. 1 143. 1 142.8 141.8 142.3 118. 2 11R2 lias i2as 129. 1 12R6 12a2 12a7 130.4 131. 4 NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction contracts' Private Total new Period tion expenditures Read ential Total Total1 Commercial and industrial New housing Other Federal, State, and local CommerTotal value cial and index industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) Bil lions of dollMrs 1971 1972 1973._-.-.-i 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ ___ 110.0 124.1 137.9 138.5 1345 148.8 172.6 4as 80,1 9a9 105.4 100.2 9a7 110.6 1347 17.0 35.1 449 50. 1 40.6 344 47.3 65.7 543 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 iai 21.7 2a s 20.8 19.9 22.5 19.8 21.5 240 25.9 26.4 30. 0 31.3 29.9 30. 2 32.5 38.3 40.9 38.3 37.8 3LO 39.1 38.8 39.4 37.4 37; 4 36.8 36.4 35.7 37.7 41.5 45.1 45.1 47.9 Seasonall / adjusted aiinual rates 1977: July Aug-..._.^ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Peb Mar Apr -May 176.4 176.4 177.8 17&7 17ai 179.0 171.7 177.9 184.8 192.9 . 19a2 203.3 206.9 June »» July* 137. 3 137.6 82.9 82,9 139,2 140.6 142.3 135.3 142,2 147. 1 151.3 153.1 15&2 159.0 842 8K2 87.4 79. 7 85.6 87.6 90,0 91.1 92.5 isas 2a4 2as 67.1 67; 1 67.6 69.3 70.7 72.8 65.0 70.9 72.5 744 75.1 76. & 77.5 sao gas 1 Includes nonhousekeeplng residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 1 F. w. Dodge series. Berates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value Indei and beginning 1971 for floor space. 242 241 243 22.8 22.4 22.8 25.4 26.4 27.3 30.6 30.7 sag 31. 2 30.9 31; 1 32. 1 33.2 33.8 34 1 349 347 35.1 35.1 145.4 165. 3 179.5 169.7 167.9 199.4 252.2 727 854 1,010 840 555 592 738 Seasonally Seasonally adjusted annual adjusted rates 209 702 853 267 813 279 244 757 258 847 864 299 283 996 266 814 254 863 921 279 332 1,061 999 249 286 898 NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and MeGraw-Hlll Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] Is ew private lousing units Units started, by type of stn.icture Period Total 1970.-. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 .__ 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 1 unit 812.9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 2-4 units 848 120.3 141.3 nas ea i 640 85.9 121.7 6 or more units 535.9 780.9 906.2 795.0 381.6 2043 289.2 414.4 New priv ate homes Units authorized 1, 351. 5 1, 924 6 2, 2ia 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074 4 939.2 1, 29a 2 1, 690. 0 "Units completed 1, 4ia 4 1, 706. 1 2, ooa 9 2, 100. 5 1, 72a 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 667. 1 Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period * 485 656 718 634 519 549 646 819 220 818 845 870 819 857 813 774 793 389 389 398 401 403 405 404 404 410 415 420 420 287 409 418 346 313 354 403 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)' 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 Seasonally adjusted arinual rates 1977: Aug Sept. Oot Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May * June * July " Aug» -_ 1 2,038 2,012 2, 139 2,096 2,203 1,548 1,569 2,047 2,165 2,054 2,124 2,128 2,029 1,454 1,508 1,532 1,544 1,574 1,156 1,103 1, 429 1,492 1,478 1,441 1,453 1,442 Seasonally adjusted 'Quarterly date enteired In last mont h of quarter. 119 124 127 134 153 101 79 126 142 89 148 138 134 465 380 480 418 476 291 387 492 531 487 535 537 453 1,770 1,695 1,781 1,822 1,778 1,526 1,534 1,647 1,740 1,597 1,821 1,632 1,571 1,677 1,875 1,665 1,769 1,641 1,759 1,696 1, 821 1,943 1,854 1,898 1,924 827 849 833 804 Source: Department of Comme tea. Bureau of he Census. 5,4 5.1 5.0 5. 1 1Q BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales fell slightly in July, while inventories rose about $2 billion. Accordin$ to the advance survey, retail sales rose in August following a slight decline in July. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 100 400 90 RETAIL INVENTORIES 350 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES _\ 80 70 300 60 250 RETAIL SALES 50 200 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 40 150 RATIO* 1.80 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1977 •SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COMfKtt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total b usiness! Who esale K<:tail Sales 2 Period Sales 2 1978 Inventories * Inven-3 Sales2 tories Tntnl Inventory- sales Iriventories DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores Durable rai io * Nondurable goods stores stores Total business ' 23, 342 50, 063 21, 687 28, 376 25, 054 55, 079 24, 238 30, 841 1.58 goods Retail Milli ons of d ollars, seasonally adjustec 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976. 1977 . 1977: Aug_.__ 224, 247 327, 639 53, 208 65, 095 59, 020 19, 984 39, 036 84, 462 _ 224, 907 330, 345 53, 307 66, 119 59, 014 19, 763 39, 251 85, 215 _„ 228, 508 330, 832 53, 639 66, 209 60, 778 20,895 39, 883 85, 322 231, 488 333, 186 55, 558 67, 047 61, 588 20, 733 40, 855 86, 299 237, 258 334, 785 57, 266 67, 998 62, 054 20, 915 41, 139 87, 073 39, 303 45, 159 39, 559 45, 656 39, 589 45, 733 40, 087 46, 212 40, 534 46, 539 230, 162 337, 676 55, 985 68, 991 59, 855 19, 782 40, 073 87, 708 103 87, 642 752 89, 097 110 89, 963 41, 060 46, 648 41, 369 46, 273 41,521 47, 576 Sept Oct Nov Dee. 1978: Jan— _ • _ _ _ FebMar Apr May... June July »__ Aug» 116, 351 130, 049 151, 647 175, 200 188,508 203, 088 233, 749 285, 064 26, 257 35, 823 29, 584 39,' 786 36, 822 46, 254 45, 836 56, 537 179,621 283, 614 44, 633 55, 113 200, 760 309, 238 48, 408 61, 307 .. 223, 793 334, 785 53, 509 67, 998 34, 169 10, 37, 422 12, 41, 871 14, 44, 543 13, 48, 370 14, 27, 781 62, 950 30, 723 70, 716 907 33, 463 70, 623 53, 542 17, 544 35, 998 78, 045 59, 029 19, 901 39, 127 87, 073 238, 278 340, 396 57, 635 70, 361 61, 661 20, 558 41, 242, 668 345, 839 58, 877 72,882 62, 690 20, 938 41, 250, 768 350, 545 62, 152 74, 867 64, 079 21, 969 42, 251, 806 354, 226 64, 01 1 75, 474 34, 229 21, 758 42, 252, 534 356, 920 33,235; 75, .'20 64, 460 21, 987 42, 250, 382 358, 795 63, 190 75, 158 64, 086 21, 515 42, _ 64, 584 21, 846 42, " ^"cvtiiit wtiaiueeo itiau iiitiuucs'iiimiuiKCMiriBg ! 3 Monthly average for year and total lor month. vseepage^ij. Book value, end ol period, seasonally adjusted. * For annual .periods, ratio otweighted average inventories to average monthly sales; tor monthly data, ratio ol inventories at end of month to sales for month 20 827 369 091 820 28, 072 34, 878 32, 394 32, 119 36, 417 40, 534 38, 322 38, 504 41, 628 46, 539 41, 881 48, 082 471 91, 063 42, 300 48, 763 473 91, 543 42, 036 49, 507 571 92, 470 42, 359 50, 111 738 1. 50 1.44 1.47 1. 58 1.48 1. 44 1.46 1.47 1.45 1.44 1. 41 1.47 1.43 1.43 1. 40 1. 41 1.41 1. 43 1-39 1. 40 1.41 1. 48 1.43 1.39 1.40 1.43 1. 44 1.40 1.40 1. 40 1.47 1. 42 1.42 1.40 1. 42 1.42 1. 44 Note.—Total (and manufacturing) sales revised beginning February 1978. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' shipments and new orders declined in July, while inventories rose. According to advance data, durable goods shipments and orders rose in August. BILLIONS OF.DOLLARS* (RATIOSCALE)' BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL0 1977 •5EASOMMIY ADJUSTED SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufao turers' sh pments l Manufact urers' inventories 2 Manufacturers ' new ord ers ' 55, 925 63, 043 72, 954 84, 821 86, 616 98, 809 111, 256 29, 973 34, 043 39, 704 44, 253 43, 678 50, 697 58, 266 25, 952 28, 999 33, 250 40, 568 42, 939 48, 112 52, 990 Durabl e goods Capital Nongoods Durable Total Total indusgoods durable Total goods tries, nondefense MUlio Da of dollstrs, season ally adjus ted 7,535 102, 622 66, 271 36, 351 56, 016 30, 030 8,832 108, 223 70, 244 37, 979 64, 201 35, 098 124, 545 81, 333 43, 212 76, 224 42, 894 11, 114 157, 811 101, 790 56, 021 87, 200 46, 783 12, 691 157, 878 101, 580 56, 298 85, 058 41, 933 10, 781 169, 886 108, 968 60, 918 99, 134 50, 997 12, 501 179, 714 115,424 64, 290 112, 842 59, 795 15, 201 1977: Aug_._ 112,019 Sept__ 112,586 Oct._. 114, 091 Nov_ . 114, 342 Dee._. 117, 938 58, 649 59, 285 60, 316 60, 228 62, 130 53, 370 53, 301 53, 775 54, 114 55, 808 178, 082 179, Oil 179, 301 179, 840 179, 714 113,917 114,467 114, 448 115,212 115,424 64, 165 64, 544 64, 853 64, 628 64, 290 112, 615 113, 680 117, 331 117, 024 122, 128 59, 269 60, 364 63, 556 62, 821 66, 165 59, 973 54,349 63, 077 55, 905 64, 457 56, 644 66, 493 58, 044 65, 417 58, 149 66, 293 58, 546 65, 222 57, 884 67, 765 180, 977 182, 393 183, 860 185, 715 187, 689 189, 557 191, 167 116,278 117,511 118, 725 119, 848 121, 471 122, 688 123, 830 64, 699 64, 882 65, 135 65, 867 66, 218 66, 869 67, 337 117, 899 122, 544 125, 801 128, 175 128, 450 127, 580 123, 279 63, 335 66, 681 69, 016 70, 033 70, 045 68, 840 65, 187 70, 131 Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978: Total NonDurable durable goods goods Jan.. 114,322 Feb... 118, 982 121, 101 Mar 124, 637 Apr May__ 123, 566 June__ 124, 839 July * 123, 106 Aug". 1 Monthly average for year and 3 Book ralue, end of period. 3 total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period, * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. 1978 COUNCB. OF ECONOMIC ADYISEHS ManufacNon- turers' durable unfilled goods orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio ' 25, 986 29,104 33, 329 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 53, 047 107, 657 121, 709 161, 194 189, 678 170, 686 174, 553 193, 659 1.83 1.67 1.58 1.65 1.83 1. 66 1.58 14, 527 16, 124 16, 097 16, 090 16, 988 53, 346 53, 316 53, 775 54, 203 55, 963 182, 453 183, 547 186, 787 189, 469 193, 659 1.59 1.59 1.57 1.57 1.52 16, 511 17, 882 17, 507 17, 409 18, 124 18, 155 17, 074 18, 802 54, 564 55, 863 56, 785 58, 142 58, 405 58, 740 58, 092 197, 235 200, 798 205, 500 209, 133 214, 010 216, 754 216, 922 1.58 1. 53 1.52 1.49 1. 52 1. 52 1.55 Note.—Total and nondurable shipments and new orders revised beginning February 1978. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In August, the producer price index for all finished soods fell 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 1.5 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.4 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.4 percent. INDEX, 1967-100 (RATIO SCALI) 240 INDEX, 1967-100 (RATIO SCALE) 240 SEASONALLY ADJUSTS) _ FINISHED GOODS 220 220 200 200 CONSUMER FOODS 180 180 .CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 160 160 CAP TAL EQUIPMENT 140 140 120 120 100 too II1 1 I 11 1 1 1 1971 i 1 1 1 1 11 1972 1973 1975 1974 1976 t i 1 1 i 11 t i i i 1977 1978 SOUHCEi KFAnMENT OF lABOt Period Total finished goods 1970 _ 110.3 1971 113.7 1972 117.2 1973 127.9 1974 147.5 1975 163.4 1976 __ 170.3 1977 180. 6 1977: Aug 181. 5 Sept 182. 1 Got 183. 2 Nov 184.5 Dec 185. 3 1978: Jan 186. 6 Feb 188.6 Mar 189. 6 Apr 192. 0 May 193.3 194. 7 June July 195. 7 Aug 195.5 COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin. shed go<Dds Iatermediate material3 Finisheti goods excludlng corisumer f c>ods Consumer foods 113. 5 115.3 121. 7 146.4 166. 9 181.0 180.2 189.1 189.3 189.2 189.5 191.9 192. 6 194.8 200.7 202. 1 205. 8 206.8 209. 1 208.4 205.2 » Formerly called producer &lislicd gooda. 22 1979 Corisumer g oode Total 109. 1 113.1 115.4 120.2 139.4 156.2 165.5 176.2 177.2 178.2 179.5 180. 3 181.2 182. 2 183.0 183. 9 185. 8 187.2 188. 3 189. 8 190.6 Total T°hlr *fill — able /-1_ ; Oapi- Nondurable Hhol bitl SCjlilp** Total ment 1 107. 7 106. 9 108. 3 112. 0 111.4 110.8 111.7 116.6 113.4 113.2 113. 6 119.5 118. 5 115.4 120.5 123.5 138. 6 125.9 146. 8 141. 0 153. 1 138. 2 163. 0 162. 5 161.8 144.4 173. 3 173.2 172.1 152.2 185.4 184.5 173.2 153. 7 186. 3 185.4 174.1 154. 0 187. 5 186.4 174.8 154.9 188. 1 188.9 175.4 155. 5 188.8 189.9 176. 1 156. 1 189.5 191. 3 177. 1 157.4 190. 3 192.3 177. 6 157.7 190.9 193. 5 178. 4 158. 7 191. 5 194. 6 180. 8 163.2 192.4 195. 7 182. 1 165.1 193. 1 197.3 182. 9 165. 5 194. 3 198. 9 184.8 168.4 195. 4 199.9 185.6 169.6 195.9 200.6 109. 9 114. 1 118.7 131.6 162.9 180.0 189.3 201.7 Foods and feeds 2 109. 1 111.7 118. 5 168.4 200. 2 195.3 186.6 191.0 202.6 176.2 203. 5 172. 9 204.3 172. 8 205.2 185.4 206.0 183. 3 207. 9 187.2 209.7 191.0 211. 3 201. 1 212.4 201. 2 213.6 206.6 214. 3 201. 0 215.4 204 1 216.4 197. 1 3 Intermediate materialIs for food feet Is. Other Cn.ide mate rials Total 112. 3 115. 1 127. 6 174 0 Foodstuffs and feedstuff; 112. 0 1142 127. 5 180. 0 196. 1 189.4 196. 9 191.8 205. 1 190. 1 202.4 2143 190.9 2042 206. 3 180.2 205. 3 205. 7 179.8 206. 1 207.4 182.2 206.4 2144 189.9 207.4 217. 2 191. 1 209.2 221. 6 196. 4 210.9 228.7 205. 6 212. 0 231. 7 208. 0 213. 1 238. 5 217.0 214 1 238. 9 217.1 215. 1 243. 1 221. 3 216. 0 241. 7 215. 7 217.5 238. 6 211.9 manufactu ring and saanufacture id 109. 9 114.3 118. 9 128.1 159.5 178.6 189.5 Nora.—Data revised for April 1978. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Other 112. 7 117.0 128.0 162. 5 208.9 206. 9 233.6 258.4 255.6 2544 254 9 260. 9 266. 3 269. 4 272. 1 276. 5 278. 8 279. 7 284 4 291. 0| 289.6 animal CONSUMER PRICES In August, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 percent (also 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.2 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.5 percent (also 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 {RATIO SCALQ INDBC 1?67«100 (RATIO SCALE} 220 220 UNADJUSTED 200 200 180 180 FOOD 160 160 /SERVICES, V' 140 140 "COMMODITIES LESS FOOD 120 120 100 100 M i l l I M I.I t 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] Period 1970 1971 1972__ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 All items Food Commodities less food 116. 3 121. 3 125. 3 133. 1 147.7 161. 2 170. 5 181.5 114.9 118. 4 123.5 141.4 161.7 175. 4 180.8 192.2 112.5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136. 6 149. 1 156.6 165. 1 Comnaodities less food Food All XlJJ. Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home All 121. 6 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 194.3 113.5 117. 4 120. 9 129. 9 145. 5 158.4 165. 2 174.7 114.9 118.4 123.5 141. 4 161. 7 175.4 180.8 192.2 113.7 116.4 121.6 141.4 162. 4 175.8 179.5 190.2 119.9 126. 1 131. 1 141.4 159.4 174. 3 186. 1 200.3 112.5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136. 6 149. 1 156.6 165. 1 Services Durable Nondurable 111. 8 116.5 118.9 121.9 130. 6 145.5 154. 3 163.2 113. 1 117.0 119.8 124. 8 140.9 151.7 158.3 166.5 121. 6 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 1943 Seasonal y adjust ed Unad justed 1977: Aug.... Sept.._ Oct Nov._. Dec 183.3 184. 0 184.5 185. 4 186. 1 195.2 1945 194.4 195. 6 196. 3 166.0 166.7 167.4 168. 1 168.4 196.3 197.7 198.5 199.5 200. 5 175. 7 176.2 176.7 177.5 178.3 194.3 194.7 195. 0 196.0 196. 7 192.0 192.3 192. 5 193. 5 194.2 203. 0 203.8 204.5 205. 1 206. 1 165. 7 166.2 166.8 167.6 168.4 163. 6 163.9 164.4 165. 1 166. 0 167.2 167.8 168.6 169. 4 169.9 196.8 197.9 198.7 199.5 200.3 1978: Jan Feb.— Mar Apr MayJune July— Aug 187.2 188.4 189.8 191. 5 193. 3 195. 3 196. 7 197. 8 199. 2 202. 0 204.2 207.5 210. 3 213. 8 215. 0 215.4 168. 6 168.8 170.0 171.3 173. 0 174.4 175. 4 176.3 202.0 203. 5 204.9 206. 5 208. 0 209. 9 211.7 213.4 179.9 180.8 182.3 184.0 185. 6 187.2 187. 9 188.7 199.2 201. 6 204.3 208. 1 211. 2 214.0 213. 9 214.5 197.0 199.5 202. 5 207.3 211. 1 214.0 213. 2 213. 3 208.4 210.5 212.5 214.0 215.8 218.2 219. 9 221.7 169.5 169.9 170.9 171.8 172.8 173.9 174. 9 175.7 167.6 168.7 169.5 170.4 171.8 173.2 174.4 175.2 170.6 170. 1 171.2 172. 1 172. 8 173.5 1744 175.2 201.5 203. 0 204.7 206.6 208. 7 210. 5 212.2 214 0 NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Percent ; change from prcseeding perioc .; season ally adjuBted i Period Total finished goods 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 4.8 2.2 3.2 3.8 11.8 18.3 6.6 3.3 6.6 .2 .3 .6 .7 .4 .7 1. 1 .5 1.3 .7 .7 .5 — .1 Consum er goods Capital equipExclud- ment ing Foods foods a2 -2. 5 5. 9 8.0 22. 5 13. 0 5.5 -2.5 6. 6 — 3 —. 1 .2 1.3 .4 1.1 3.0 .7 1.8 .5 1. 1 —.3 -1.5 2.9 3.9 2. 0 2.0 7.4 20.5 6.7 4.9 6.1 3 5 4 3 4 6 3 5 13 7 4 10 4 Percen^ } change from 3 iTaonths earlier; seasortally adjilisted annua . rates Percen t change from 6 imonths earlie r; seasoilally adj listed annua L rates Consum er goods Consum er goods Total finished goods 4. 6 4.9 2.4 2.0 5.3 22. 6 8. 2 6.4 7.2 .5 .5 1.3 .5 .7 .5 .6 .6 .6 .8 .8 .5 .4 2.0 2.9 4.7 6.8 7.2 7.6 9.2 9. 6 12. 1 10.3 11.2 7. 9 4. 6 1 Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods 4.0 4.0 5. 2 5.2 4.7 5.4 5.1 5. 3 8. 6 10. 5 10.5 9.1 7.9 — 5. 9 -2.3 Q "~ . o 5. 6 7.4 11.7 19.6 21.2 24. 6 12.7 14. 6 5.2 —a i 5.8 6.0 9. 9 10. 1 10.9 7.4 7.8 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9. 1 8.9 6.9 5.6 4.7 4. 5 4.4 5.0 6.2 8.0 8.4 9.8 9.8 10.4 10.0 7.5 Capital equipExclud- ment ing Foods foods 3.7 1.0 —.1 —.3 2.4 5.2 12.4 14. 1 17.9 16. 1 17.9 14. 5 4.5 6. 2 5.9 4.9 4.6 4.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 7.0 7.8 7.<# 8.9 9.2 6. 2 6.4 8. 1 7. 9 8.4 8, 6 8. 9 9. 0 7.3 7.9 8. 1 8. 1 7.5 Source: Department ©f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisti«s. Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for April 1978. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percen t change from preceding perio<i; seasonlaUy adjujsted1 Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug... Sept... Oct... Nov.__ Dec___ 1978: Jan... Feb... Mar__ Apr MayJune.. July— Aug— All items 6. 1 5.5 3.4 3.4 8.8 12.2 7.0 4.8 6.8 .4 .4 .3 .4 .4 .8 .6 .8 .9 .9 Food 7.2 2.2 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.8 2.3 2.5 5.0 20. 1 12.2 13.2 .6 5. 1 6.5 6.2 8.0 .4 .2 .2 4.9 .2 .4 .5 .5 .9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 .6 .3 .5 Commodities less food .0 .3 .4 .5 .7 .2 .6 .5 .6 .6 .6 .5 Services Percent c" lange fro m 3 mont tis earlier ; Percent c' lange f re m 6 mont bs earlier ; seasonsJly adjusrfeed annu al rates seasons lly adjus>ted annu al rates All items Services AU items Food Commodities less food Services 7.4 8.2 4.1 3.6 6.2 11.3 8.1 7. 3 7.9 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 .9 .8 .8 5.0 4. 5 4.5 4,7 4.9 3.6 1.9 ai 3.5 4.2 R9 2.7 2.7 3.4 4.7 5.4 8.3 7.6 6.3 5. 6 4.9 5.1 48 4.7 5.8 7.2 6. 1 7. 5 11.9 6.6 5.6 10.0 11.3 11.4 9. 7 19.1 20.5 20.4 11. 6 5.5 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.9 6.7 9.3 8.3 1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Food Commodities less food ia4 6.4 6. 1 9. 1 10.5 11. 7 11. 8 11.3 10.6 6.6 6. 1 5.6 7.1 8.3 9.4 10.4 9.8 9.8 7.5 6.6 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.7 4.0 9. 1 6.0 7.7 5. 1 5.0 6.0 6.4 10. 1 13.9 16. 1 18.4 15. 3 13.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5.7 6.1 6. 3 6.6 6.5 6.9 8.5 7.8 7. 0 6.3 7. 0 8. I 9.4 10.4 10.9 11. 1 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell nearly 3 percent in August. Contributing most to the decrease were lower prices for broilers, corn, potatoes, cattle, and apples. Partially offsetting were higher prices for hogs, milk, and eggs. Prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month ended August 1 5. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 70 60 1970 I 1971 1972 1973 ' 1974 1976 1975 1978 1977 I/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RiCEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PA», INTEREST, TAXES, AMD WAC€ RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTU8P Prices ]received by 'armers Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 All farm products „ Crops Prices paid by far]criers All items, Livestock Family Producinterest, and tion living taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1<367=100 110 113 125 179 192 185 186 183 100 108 114 175 224 201 197 192 118 118 136 183 165 172 177 175 112 118 125 144 164 180 191 202 (s) 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 174 174 177 178 181 172 170 178 184 183 177 177 176 174 180 201 201 201 202 203 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 186 193 200 208 215 217 215 209 188 190 198 208 212 216 212 201 185 196 204 209 217 219 217 217 209 211 214 216 219 220 220 220 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to Index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 3 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. 114 118 123 133 151 166 176 Parity ratio 1 Actual Adjusted 2 108 113 121 146 166 182 193 200 72 71 74 91 86 76 71 66 77 75 79 94 87 76 72 68 (3) (3s) (3) ( 3) () 198 197 198 199 199 64 63 65 65 66 65 65 66 66 67 (3) (*) (33) () (33) (3) (3) () 203 206 211 214 217 218 218 217 65 67 69 71 72 73 72 70 67 69 71 73 74 75 74 72 3 Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Growth in all of the monetary aggregates accelerated in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO < BilllONS OF DOLLARS.* (RATIO SCAlQ 300 20O 200 1978 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Over all measiires * Deposi ts at coimmercia banks Period Mj M2 M3 Currency Tim e and savings Demand Total 1972: Dec— 1973: Dee— 1974: Dec— 1975: Dec___ 1976: Dec— 1977: Dee___ 1977: Aug_._ Sept.. Oct___ Nov Dec... 1978: Jan — Feb___ Mar___ Apr May__ June__ July___ Aug »_ 255.3 270. 5 282.9 295.2 313. 5 338. 5 330. 5 333.0 335.9 336. 2 338. 5 341. 7 341. 8 342. 9 348.5 350. 6 352. 8 354. 2 356. 8 525.3 571.4 612. 2 664. 7 740. 5 809. 5 789.2 795. 1 801. 4 805. 4 809. 5 815. 9 819. 1 822. 6 830. 3 835. 2 840. 6 846. 2 853.5 844.4 919. 2 981.2 1, 092. 5 1, 236. 5 1, 376. 1 1, 331. 3 1, 344. 9 1, 357. 9 1, 367. 1 1,376. 1 1, 386. 6 1, 393. 1 1, 400. 3 1, 411. 4 1, 419. 9 1, 429. 8 1, 440, 9 1, 455. 1 56.8 61.5 67.8 73.7 80.7 88. 6 85. 5 86.3 87. 1 87.7 88. 6 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91.2 92. 1 92. 8 93. 3 94. 0 19&4 209. 0 215. 1 221. 5 232.8 249.9 245.0 246.6 248.7 248.5 249. 9 252.2 251. 7 252. 3 257.3 258. 5 259.9 260. 9 262. 8 313.5 363.9 418.3 450. 9 489. 7 545.0 521.9 525.9 531.9 540. 1 545. 0 550.6 556.7 561.7 565.2 571. 6 574. 5 579.4 583.0 'Mi is currency plus demand deposits; Mz is Mi plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and Ms is M 2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 26 Pensent2 change Compon ents and related i1 ems Large CDs 43.5 63.0 89. 0 81. 3 62. 7 74. 0 63.2 63.8 66.4 70. 9 74.0 76.3 79.4 82. 0 83.4 87. 1 86.7 87.4 86.3 Other 270. 0 300.9 329. 3 369. 6 427. 0 471.0 458.7 462. 1 465. 5 469. 2 471. 0 474.3 477.3 479. 7 481. 8 484. 5 487.8 492.0 496. 7 Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjusted) 319. 2 347. 8 369. 1 427. 8 496. 0 566.6 542. 1 549. 8 556. 5 561.7 566.6 570.7 574.0 577. 7 581.2 584. 7 589.2 5947 601.6 7.4 6. 3 4.9 4. 1 4. 4 5. 1 3.4 5. 0 3. 7 3.5 5. 1 4.3 4. 3 4. 8 5. 0 4. 0 (>. 2 4.5 3.6 M, 9. 1 6.0 4.6 4.3 6. 2 8.0 8.5 8.6 8.0 7. 9 8. 1 8. 1 7.0 6.0 7. 6 a7 8.6 7.5 9.0 Ms 11.3 8.8 7. 1 8. 6 11.4 9.3 9. 8 9. 7 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.2 7.7 7. 0 7. 3 7. 5 7.8 7. 6 8.6 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes ar© from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1975. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Currency and cieposits Total 769.7 852.5 967.7 1, 079. 3 1, 166. 9 1, 290. 1 1, 423. 3 1, 596. 4 632.7 719.0 816.9 887. 4 945.0 1, 054. 5 1, 194. 1 1, 328. 1 49. 1 52.6 56.8 61. 5 67.8 1977: Aug Sept Oct .Nov_ Dec 1, 530. 3 1, 546. 3 1, 565. 6 1, 582. 4 1, 596. 4 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June. July Aug * 1, 613. 1 1, 624. 5 1, 636. 4 1, 6~4. 6 1, 670. 4 1, 682. 4 - _ . 1, 695. 7 _ 1, 708. 6 Period 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec — '... U.S. Treasury secuidties Negotiable certifiShortNonbank cates of term Savings marketthrift deposit institubonds able securities Time d eposits Total liquid assets Currency Demand deposits Commercial banks 19a9 23a6 2644 294.5 321. 2 360. 6 417. 3 459.4 232.7 271. 1 319.3 348. 1 369. 1 428.6 497. 3 566. 6 52.0 54.3 57.5 60.4 80.7 88.6 152.0 161.8 17&4 183.3 186.9 191.5 19a 8 213. 5 1, 284. 8 1, 298. 6 1, 312. 0 1, 320. 0 1, 328. 1 85. 5 86.3 87.1 87.7 88.6 209. 2 210.9 213.7 212.9 213.5 448.0 451.5 454. 7 457.7 459. 4 1, 338. 9 1, 345. 3 1, 352. 7 1, 365. 2 1, 373. 5 1, 383. 5 1, 396. 1 1, 410. 1 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91.3 92.2 92.9 93.4 94.0 215. 9 214.9 215. 1 221.3 222, 2 222.8 224.5 226.2 462.8 466. 2 469. 3 471.4 474.4 478.6 483.5 488. 5 7a7 Other private money market instruments eas 67.2 71.9 76.6 41. 9 31.5 34.5 43.3 47.7 6&9 66. 6 76.7 21.8 27. 6 36. 2 53.8 70.4 58.5 43.5 51. 6 21.3 20. 1 22. 5 34. 5 40. 6 43.0 47.3 63.4 542. 1 549. 8 556. 5 561.7 566.6 75. 1 75.4 75.8 76.2 76.6 71.6 73.0 74.9 76.4 76.7 42. 5 42.8 44.9 49. 0 51.6 56.3 56.6 58.0 60.8 63.4 570.7 574.0 577.7 581.2 584.7 589.2 594.7 601.4 77.0 77.4 77.8 78. 2 78.6 78.9 79.3 79.5 78. 8 79.7 79.6 80.5 81.3 80.9 79.1 78.6 52.7 54. 3 56.4 58.2 62.2 61.6 62.4 61.4 65.7 67.9 69.8 72.6 74.9 77.5 78.8 78.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalm ent credit e:^tended Period Total * Instalm*3nt credit liejuidated Bank credit cards Total * 094 820 700 399 429 413 988 888 6, 768 8, 377 10, 390 13, 863 17, 098 20, 428 25, 862 31, 761 107, 113, 121, 138, 147, 156, 172, 194, 444 784 926 156 920 665 795 555 Automobile 1, 153 699 918 1,430 1, 443 1,220 1, 850 2, 911 167 553 814 160 826 402 4,897 5, 104 5,005 5,234 5,089 5,424 2, 382 2, 396 2,567 2,687 2,585 2,723 2,464 2, 651 2, 351 2, 626 2,853 2,736 1, 069 1, 054 1, 105 850 1,241 1,297 184 315 279 287 243 250 17, 162 17, 518 17, 527 18, 398 18, 479 18, 888 19, 031 5,078 5,296 5,300 5,520 5,598 5,698 5, 636 2,788 2,858 2,783 2,944 2,982 3, 120 3,068 2,424 2, 661 4, 068 3,719 3,857 3,792 3,301 1, 185 1, 104 1,522 1, 728 1,789 1,543 1, 520 160 285 448 311 263 362 398 631 204 164 787 680 138 5, 966 6, 158 6, 109 6,083 6,330 6,721 2, 566 2, 711 2,847 2, 973 2, 828 2, 973 16, 16, 16, 17, 16, 17, 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr_ May June July 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 586 179 595 117 336 680 332 6,263 6,400 6,822 7,248 7,387 7,241 7,156 2,948 3, 143 3,231 3,255 3,245 3,482 3,466 __ „. * Includes some items not shown separately. Bank credit cards -347 4,207 5,512 5, 758 500 3, 007 10, 238 13? 235 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 20, — Automobile 4, 852 10, 043 15, 191 19, 707 9, 280 7, 504 20, 533 31, 090 1977: July. _ Aug.. _ _ Sept Oct Nov Dec _ Total * 5, 615 7,679 9,472 12, 433 15, 655 19, 208 24, 012 28, 851 296 826 117 863 200 169 328 645 30, 35, 42, 48, 45, 51, 62, 72, Bank credit cards 440 614 188 642 929 406 750 652 112, 123, 137, 157, 157, 164, 193, 225, 1970 19711972 _ 1973 1974 1975 1976 _ _ 1977 _ Automobile Net change in amount outstanding 30, 31, 37, 42, 44, 48, 52, 59, Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Growth in commercial and industrial loans strengthened in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS *(RATKD SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAlQ 1,000 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS- 1,000 TOTAL -LOANS AND INVESTMENTS 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES -„«.««« ,,«ii«««* 100 100 80 80 INVESTMENT IN U5. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES ******* 60 60 i t lit I til I t 1973 40 1971 1970 1972 Ll I [ i l l M M I I I I M I I M I I 1974 1975 l t t l t l . l t 1 1 1 I I I t I I M I LI 1976 "'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END Of MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM "P • A 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975___ 1976 1977 292. 0 320. 9 378. 9 449. 0 500.2 496.9 538. 9 617. 0 1977: Aug Sept... Oct Nov Dec 845. 850. 860. 866. 870. 8 8 0 2 6 587. 9 593.9 602. 7 611. 6 617. 0 1978: Jan* Feb* Mar * _ _ _ Apr * May * June »__ July * Aug* 880. 6 886. 6 892. 2 906. 0 917. 9 922. 4 935. 2 939.2 624.9 628. 2 636. 5 646. 3 657. 9 661. 2 672. 0 677. 2 1978 COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS 4 5 6 6 110. 0 116.2 130.4 156. 6 183.5 176. 2 179. 7 201. 4 57.8 60.6 62.6 54. 5 51. 1 80. 1 98.0 95. 6 85.7 104. 2 116. 5 129. 9 139.8 144.8 148. 2 158. 0 29.11 31. 17 31.34 34.91 36. 57 34.68 34. 93 36.14 28. 78 31.04 30.29 33.61 35.84 34. 55 34. 87 35.57 28.86 30.98 31. 06 34. 61 36. 31 34 42 34.65 35. 95 321 107 1,049 1,298 703 127 62 558 41 32 13 12 54 194. 4 196. 0 198.7 200. 2 201. 4 102.4 100.7 99.4 96. 3 95. 6 155.5 156. 2 157.9 158. 3 158.0 35.50 35. 52 35. 81 35. 96 36.14 34.44 34.89 34.50 35. 10 35. 57 35. 30 35.31 35.60 35.71 35.95 1,071 634 1,319 840 558 101 112 114 83 54 203.9 206. 1 210. 3 213. 3 219. 2 220.4 222.3 224. 4 96.3 99.0 95. 6 97. 6 97. 1 98.4 99.7 97. 0 159.4 159.4 160. 1 162. 1 162. 9 162.8 163.5 165.0 36. 60 36.93 36.67 36. 95 37. 27 37. 73 38. 19 37. 91 36. 12 36.53 36.34 36.40 36. 06 36. 63 36.88 36. 77 36.33 36.69 36.47 36.81 37. 05 37. 55 38.00 37.74 481 405 344 539 1,227 1, 111 1,286 1, 147 32 52 47 43 93 120 143 188 *2 Data are for end of period. Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. s Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. I I1 I II I 1 M 1 [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All c ommercial I>anks 1 All member ban ks Borrowiiigs (milL Dans Investnlents IReserves 2 3 lions of dollars, Total unadJListed) 2 loans and Total exinvest- cluding Commer- U.S. Gov- Other NonReSeacial and ernment secuTotal Total ments interborrowed quired sonal industrial securities rities bank 435. 5 485. 7 558. 0 633. 4 691. 1 721. 8 785. 1 870. 6 28 1977 4 During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bai 6 Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1£ 6 Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $0.2 billion in December 1977; Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses Pur- External chase Period Total Credit; market i unds Inter- nal 1 Total Total 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 104.3 127.1 161.7 199. 7 190.8 143.8 205.0 __ 238. 9 Longterm 2 Shortterm 3 Total Other cal assets 4 in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 58.9 68.6 80.8 83. 8 75.7 106.8 124.7 135.3 45.5 58.5 80.9 115. 9 115. 1 37.0 80.3 103.6 40.7 44.5 58.3 72.7 81.8 37.0 58.2 78.7 32. 1 40.6 40.6 37.1 39. 1 49.2 48.7 46.2 8. 6 3.9 17.6 35. 6 42. 6 -12.2 9.4 32,5 4.8 14. 1 22.7 43. 3 33.4 .0 22. 1 25. 0 95. 9 119.6 145. 9 185.6 179. 1 131.9 184. 9 212.4 80. 3 86.0 100.3 123. 3 134. 7 99. 9 141.2 164.6 15.6 33. 6 45. 6 62. 3 44. 4 32.0 43.7 47.8 8.4 7.5 15.9 14.2 11.8 11. 9 20. 1 26.7 214.6 177.3 152.5 162.4 175. 2 168. 0 62. 1 14. 9 59.4 54.7 29.6 21. 3 31.4 24.4 180. 3 198.3 80.2 47.5 21.6 20.8 1977: I II III IV 198. 6 266. 1 247. 2 123.8 134.9 145.5 137.3 120. 5 63.7 120.6 109.9 75.9 63.7 80.1 95.2 34.5 35.2 53.4 61.6 41.4 28. 5 26.7 33.6 44. 5 .0 40.5 14.7 1978: I II v 282. 2 266. 6 125.6 140.5 156. 6 126. 1 107.0 101.3 40. 3 46. 7 66. 7 54. 6 49. 6 24.8 244.3 of physi- Increase 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. » Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. > Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances, and Government loans. 234.6 222.7 260. 5 245.8 * Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights. NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1971. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Cur rent liabilities Curreiit assets Net U.S. End of period Total Cash government securities Notes Notes and ac- counts payable Inventories Other current assets Total and ac- counts payable Other current Mabili- SEC series:2 1970 1971 1972 _ 1973___ 1974 FTC-FRB series : 3 1974_._ __ _ 492. 3 529.6 599.3 697. 8 790. 7 50. 2 53. 3 59. 0 66.3 71. 1 11.0 10. 6 12. 8 12. 3 7.7 206. 1 221. 1 193. 3 200. 4 248.2 225.7 288. 5 322. 1 35. 0 43.8 55. 8 66. 4 71. 7 375. 6 450. 9 530. 4 375.4 65. 9 69. 9 76. 4 84. 3 451. 8 446. 9 487. 5 543. 9 263. 9 313.6 318. 9 314. 7 341. 4 304.9 326.0 1975. 1976_ 1977_ 756. 3 823. 1 901. 2 73. 0 80. 0 86.8 94. 4 11.3 19. 6 26. 0 20.8 272. 1 1976: III IV 817.4 823. 1 79. 5 86.8 24. 1 26. 0 292. 4 342. 2 341.4 73.6 76. 4 484. 0 1977: I II III IV 843. 2 857. 3 881. 7 901.2 80. 9 83.2 83. 6 94.4 26. 9 22. 3 21.7 20. 8 304. 5 313.2 327. 1 352. 4 359. 3 367. 9 375. 4 78. 3 79.2 81. 2 84.3 503. 4 510. 5 530. 2 734.6 265.5 292.4 326. 2 297.9 326.2 i3 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. 8 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. 487.5 543.9 work- ing Current ratio 1 capital 93. 6 105. 5 92. 7 110. 7 128. 1 187. 4 203. 6 223. 7 246. 9 260. 3 1. 615 1. 625 1. 595 1. 548 1.491 272. 3 261. 2 273. 2 307. 1 179. 5 185. 7 214. 2 236.8 282. 8 309. 5 335. 6 357. 3 1. 1. 1. 1. 271. 2 273. 2 212. 8 214. 2 333. 4 335. 6 1. 689 1.688 280.6 287.4 222. 9 223. 1 231. 7 236. 8 339. 8 346. 9 351. 6 357. 3 1.675 1. 679 1. 663 1.657 211. 3 220. 5 282. 9 340.3 402. 3 298. 2 307. 1 626 693 688 657 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Buttetin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Short-term interest rates continued to rise during September/ long-term rates turned up late in the month. PERCENT PER ANNUM PER ANNUM 10 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODrS) 1970 1978 SOURCEs SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AtVKERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Tre asury security 3-month bills * Period 4. 071 7.041 1972__ 1973 1974 1975 1976_ . 1977 1977: Aug. 7.886 ... Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May 5. 838 4. 989 5. 265 5. 500 5. 770 6. 188 6. 160 6.063 6. 448 _ 6.457 6. 319 6. 306 6.430 6.707 7.074 June July Aug__ _ 7. 036 yields Constant rnaturities 2 3-year 5.72 6.95 7. 82 7.49 6.77 6.69 6. 79 6. 84 7. 19 7. 22 7. 30 7.61 7.67 7. 70 7. 85 8. 07 8. 30 8.54 8. 33 10-year 6.21 6.84 7.56 7. 99 7.61 7. 42 7. 40 7. 34 7. 52 7. 58 7. 69 7. 96 8.03 8.04 8. 15 8. 35 8.46 8. 64 8.41 High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount rate municipal mercial Aaa (N.Y. paper, bonds bonds F.R. (Standard 4-6 (Moody's) Bank)4 months & Poor's)3 7. 21 7.44 8.57 8. 83 5.27 5. 18 6. 09 6. 89 6. 49 5. 56 5.46 5.37 5. 53 5. 38 5. 48 5. 60 5. 51 5.49 5. 71 5. 97 6. 13 6. 18 5. 98 a 43 a 02 7.98 7. 92 a 04 a os 8. 19 8. 41 a 47 8.47 8.56 8.69 8.76 8.88 8.69 4 69 8. 15 9.87 6. 33 5. 35 5. 60 5. 84 6. 17 6.55 6. 59 6. 64 6. 79 6.80 6.80 6.86 7. 11 7.63 7.91 7. 90 Sept Week ended: 1978: Sept 1... 8 15 22 7.323 7.659 7. 695 8.37 8. 35 8. 34 8.45 8.38 8.34 8. 31 8.46 6.04 6. 00 5. 88 5. 93 7.884 8. 106 29.... 1 Rate on new issues within period. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. < Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 8.67 8.67 8. 63 8. 70 6 8.03 8.24 8.43 8. 51 4. 50 6. 45 7. 83 6.25 5.50 5.46 5)4-5% 5%—5% 5%— 6 6-6 6-6 6-6X2 6^—6^2 6/4— 6/4 6^2—6^> 6H-7 7-7 7-7 7H-7% 7%7%—7% 7%-7% 7%—7% 7%-8 8 - Prime rate charged by banks * 5. 25 8. 03 10. 81 7.86 6.84 6.83 6%-7 7 -7K 7%—7% 7%—7% 7%— 7% 7%—S 8-8 8-8 8-8 8-8H 8^4—9 9-9 9 -9K Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)^ 7. 60 7. 95 8.92 9. 01 8.99 9.01 9.02 9. 04 9.07 9.07 9.09 9. 15 9. 18 9.26 9. 30 9.37 9.46 9.57 9.69 Wr- 9 -9M 9%_9^ 9^—91^ 9^-9K 9K- Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices moved erratically in September. INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 40 40 30 - .30 1970 PERCENT 20 PERCENT 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 15 10 10 I I ! I 1971 1970 1972 1973 t T I '1974 I 1976 1975 1977 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common s tock 5 yields (perc ent) Comilion stock p rices l 2 New York Stock Exch ange indexe s(Dec. 31, 11965 = 50) Period TransporComposite Industrial tation 1972 1973 1974 _ _ 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug.. _ _ Sept... _ Oct ._ Nov Dec... _ 1978: Jan Feb Mar_ Apr May June . . Julv Aug__ Week ended: 1978: Aug 25 Sept 1 8 15 22 Finance Utility Standard & Poor's Dowcomposite DividendJones index industrial3 ratio (1941-43 = average 10)* 60.29 57.42 43.84 45.73 54. 46 53. 69 53. 51 52. 66 51. 37 51. 87 51. 83 49. 89 49. 41 49. 50 51. 75 54.49 54.83 54. 61 58.53 65.73 63.08 48. 08 50. 52 60.44 57. 86 57. 30 56. 41 54. 99 55. 62 53. 55 53. 45 52. 80 52. 77 55. 48 59. 14 59. 63 59. 35 64.07 50. 17 37. 74 31.89 31. 10 39. 57 41. 09 41. 04 39. 99 38. 33 39. 30 39.75 39. 15 38.90 38. 95 41. 19 44.21 44. 19 44. 74 49.45 38.48 37. 69 29. 79 31. 50 36. 97 40. 92 41. 50 40.93 40. 38 40. 33 40. 36 39. 06 39.02 39. 26 39. 69 39. 47 39. 41 39. 28 40.20 78. 35 70. 12 49.67 47. 14 52. 94 55. 25 56. 52 55. 33 53. 24 54. 04 53. 85 50. 91 50. 60 51. 44 55. 04 57. 95 58. 31 57. 97 63.28 950. 71 923. 88 759. 37 802. 49 974. 92 894. 63 872. 26 853. 30 823. 96 828. 51 818. 80 781. 09 763. 57 756. 37 794. 66 838. 56 840. 26 831. 72 887. 93 109. 20 107. 43 82. 85 86. 16 102. 01 98. 20 97.75 96. 23 93. 74 94. 28 93. 82 90. 25 88.98 88. 82 92. 71 97.41 97.66 97. 19 103. 92 2. 84 3.06 4. 47 4.31 3. 77 4. 62 4.72 4. 82 4. 97 5. 02 5. 11 5. 32 5. 49 5. 62 5. 42 5.20 5. 19 5.25 4. 93 59. 98 58. 49 59.52 59. 80 57. 63 64. 63 64. 12 65.44 65. 73 63.07 49. 82 50. 03 51.93 51.80 48.70 40. 27 39. 84 39. 89 40. 07 39. 59 63. 94 63. 11 64. 11 64. 70 62.37 894. 880. 895. 895. 862. 104. 62 103. 56 105. 52 105. 91 102. 25 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 1 Averages of daily closing prices. 2 3 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. 8 NYSE. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 1978 25 39 96 87 49 Earningsratio 5. 50 7. 12 11. 59 9. 15 8. 90 10. 79 11. 09 11. 45 12. 31 90 97 88 85 07 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Stand" ard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 11 months of fiscal 1978 the budget deficit was $52.4 billion. A year earlier the deficit was $46.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BiLUONS OF DOilARS 500 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS .400 400 OUTLAYS 300 300 RECEIPTS 200 200 50* 50 SURPLUS W OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 I -100 1970 1971 1972 1973 -100 1974 1976 1975 1977 1978' 1979 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCISi DEPARTMENT OF THI TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Receipts Fiscal year or period: 1969— . 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974_ 1975 1976 .„ Transition quarter „ 1977 „2 . 1978 (estimates) _ _ 1979 (estimates): Mid-Session Review, July 1978 2 _ _„ „ „ Second Concurrent Resolution. Septem3 ber 1978 - . Cumulative total first 11 months: Fiscal year 1977 Fiscal year 1978 1 2 Excludes „_ non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1979 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 6,1978. 3 Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, September 21 1978. 32 Outlays 187. 8 193. 7 188. 4 208. 6 232. 2 264. 9 281. 0 300. 0 81. 8 357.8 401.2 184.5 196.6 211.4 232. 0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366. 4 94. 7 402. 8 452. 3 448.2 Surplus or deficit ( — ) Federal debt ( end of period) Total l Held by the public -45. 1 -66.4 -13.0 -45. 0 — 51. 1 47 367. 1 382. 6 409. 5 437. 3 468. 4 486. 2 544. 1 631. 9 646. 4 709. 1 776. 0 279.5 284. 9 304.3 323. 8 343. 0 346. 1 396. 9 480. 3 498. 3 551. 8 606.8 496.6 -48.5 853. 9 668. 9 448.7 487.5 — 38. 8 321. 1 359.4 367. 7 411.8 -46.6 -52.4 695. 5 773.3 541.8 608. 1 3.2 -2. 8 -23. 0 -23.4 -14. 8 NOTE.—See Note, p. 33. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In *he first 11 months ol fiscal 1978 budget receipts were $38.3 billion higher than a year earlier and expenditures were $44.1 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 400 400 OUTLAYS 300 300 NONDEFENSE 200 200 100 100 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1977 1979 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES-. DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Rec€jipts <3utlays Nationa I defense Period Total Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total Total Department of Defense, military Fiscal year or period: 1969.. 187. 8 193. 7 1970_ _ 1971188. 4 1972. _ 208. 6 232. 2 19731974 264. 9 1975 „ _ . _ _ 281. 0 1976 300. 0 Transition quarter 81.8 1977 357. 8 1 1978 (estimates)1 401. 2 1979 (estimates) 448. 2 87. 2 90. 4 86.2 94. 7 103.2 119. 0 122. 4 131. 6 38.8 157. 6 182. 0 200. 1 36.7 32.8 26.8 32.2 36. 2 38. 6 40. 6 41. 4 8. 5 54. 9 59.0 60.8 63.9 70.5 75. 4 81. 7 92. 8 107. 4 118.0 127. 0 34. 5 145.2 160. 2 187. 2 196. 6 211. 4 232. 0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366. 4 94.7 402. 8 452. 3 496. 6 79.4 78. 6 75. 8 76. 6 74. 5 77.8 85. 6 89. 4 22. 3 97. 5 104. 2 114. 6 77. 9 77. 2 74.5 75. 2 73.3 77.6 85. 0 88. 0 21. 9 95. 7 102. 0 112. 0 Cumulative total first 11 i months: Fiscal year 1977___ 321. 1 Fiscal year 1978 359.4 140.3 160.1 46. 5 50.2 1343 149. 1 367.7 411.8 89.0 96.2 87. 6 94. 3 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1979 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 6,1978. NOTE.—Earned income credit payments in excess of an individual's tax liability are classified as outlays for all periods. 184.5 Interna- Health and Intional income terest Other affairs security 4. 6 4. 3 4. 1 7.4 49. 0 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91. 8 106. 5 136. 3 160. 9 41. 5 176.7 190. 6 209.4 15.8 18.3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 31. 0 34. 6 7. 2 38. 1 43. 8 49. 0 35. 7 39. 3 41. 8 48. 8 53. 9 51. 7 66. 5 76. 0 21. 5 85. 7 107. 1 116. 3 3.6 5.7 164.3 173.8 35.4 40.7 75. 5 95. 4 4.7 4.0 5.6 6. 9 5.5 2.2 4. 8 6. 5 Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to revised estimates for the second quarter. Federal receipts rose $28.6 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell slightly, yielding a deficit of $23.6 billion, less than half the deficit in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 50 i111 I ni Hl| 1 SURPLUS ^-1y/A DEFICIT V^A uu t^i r *"" -50 - -100 1970 1971 1973 1972 1974 CALENDAR YEARS V?75 - -50 -100 1978 1977 1976 - COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal (jrovernm ent receip ts Period F(sderal G 3vernmeiat expen ditures Surplus or deficit GrantsSubsidies Less: Indirect ContriPurin-aid less Wage Personal Corporate business butions chases Trans- to State t Net current accruals national tax and Total nontax profits tax and Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less for income tax nontax social inand paid Govern- disments local and receipts accruals services accruals surance ment en- burse- product governterprises ments accounts ments (-), Fiscal year; 1974... 271. 8 283. 5 1975 313.9 1976 365. 3 1977 Calendar year: 1974. _ _ 288.6 1975 286. 2 331. 4 1976. _ _ 374. 5 1977 122. 6 127. 1 136.9 165.9 43.7 42. 1 51.9 58. 8 21. 4 22.2 24.2 24. 5 84. 2 92. 1 100.9 116. 1 278.8 328.7 371.5 412.0 104. 6 118. 0 126.2 140.7 104. 7 134.3 156.5 169.6 41. 6 48.4 57. 5 66.2 19. 8 21.9 25.2 28.4 8.0 5.7 6.2 7.0 -0.2 — .4 .0 .0 -7.0 -45. 3 -57. 6 -46.7 131. 1 125.4 146.8 169. 4 45. 9 42.8 54.8 61. 3 21.7 23.9 23. 4 25. 0 89.9 94. 2 106. 4 118.7 299. 3 356.8 385.2 422. 6 111. 1 123. 1 129.9 145. 1 117.6 149. 1 161. 6 172. 7 43.9 54. 6 61. 1 67.4 20. 9 23.2 26. 8 29. 1 5.3 6.8 5.8 8.3 —.5 .0 .0 .0 -10.7 -70.6 -53. 8 -48. 1 1977: I II___ III__ IV... 366. 6 371. 4 374.3 385.5 168.3 167.0 167. 6 174. 8 58.4 61.8 62. 0 62. 9 24. 4 24. 8 25. 4 25. 6 115.5 117. 7 119. 3 122. 2 403. 411. 430. 444. 9 7 7 1 138.3 142.9 146. 8 152. 2 168. 6 168.2 175. 7 178.3 62. 1 65.4 70. 9 71. 1 28. 1 28. 8 28. 9 30.7 6.4 8.4 6. 7 11.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 -37.3 -40.3 -56. 4 -58. 6 1978: I II 396.2 424. 8 176.8 186.7 59.6 72.6 26. 5 27.9 133. 3 448. 8 137. 6 448. 3 151. 5 147.2 180. 2 180.7 73. 9 75.9 33.2 34.6 10.0 10.0 .0 .0 -52. 6 -23. a Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] In dustria produ<;tion (se*isonally adjuste i) Period 1971 1972 1973_ 1974 1975 1976 1977__1977: Nov_ Dee—.. 1978: Jan Feb.— Mar Apr--May V. June "_ July *_ Aug*— United CanStates ada 109.6 119. 7 129. 8 129. 3 117.8 129.8 137. 0 139. 3 139. 7 138. 8 139.2 140.9 143. 2 143.9 144. 9 145. 9 146.6 Japan 121.5 130.7 143.0 147.5 139. 6 146. 7 152.6 154.7 155. 4 153. 3 156. 7 157.5 158.2 156.7 158. 6 160.4 France Germany 128 135 145 148 139 149 152 154 149 154 152 156 160 155 154 133.6 13a7 147.7 145.1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 153 156 157 152 151 152 151 155 160 155. 8 167.2 190. 5 183. 1 163.9 182.0 189. 5 191. 5 193. 3 194.9 195.4 199.5 199.7 200. 3 200.5 199. 7 Con sumer \trices (uiiadjuste< i) United United CanGer1 Italy King- States ada Japan France many dom 117.5 122.7 1346 140. 6 127.6 143. 5 144.8 142. 1 137.3 143. 4 148. 0 146. 6 143. 1 145.1 143.2 110.6 113. 2 122.5 120.3 114. 3 115. 6 117.2 116. 1 117. 2 117.8 118.7 118. 6 121. 5 118.0 119.2 119.5 121.3 125. 3 133. 1 147.7 161.2 170. 5 181. 5 185.4 186. 1 187. 2 188.4 189. 8 191. 5 193.3 195. 3 196. 7 197.8 12&5 132. 3 147.9 184.0 205. 8 224. 9 243.0 245.7 245. 1 246. 1 247. 1 249.4 252. 1 253. 5 252. 1 253. 1 115.6 121. 2 130. 3 144.5 160. 1 172. 1 185. 9 192. 0 193. 3 194.0 195.3 197. 5 197. 9 200. 7 202.4 205.4 205.5 123.5 131.1 140.7 160. 0 178.9 196. 1 213.9 221. 1 221.7 222. 8 224.4 226.4 228.9 231, 1 232. 8 235.7 Italy 112.7 119.0 127.2 136. 1 144 2 150. 7 156.6 157.5 157. 9 158.9 159.7 160. 3 160. 7 161. 1 161.5 161. 5 161.0 114.4 121.0 134. 1 159. 7 186.8 218. 1 257. 6 270. 7 272. 0 274. 6 277.4 280. 3 283. 3 286.4 288. 8 291. 0 292.3 United Kingdom 128.5 137. 6 150. 3 174.4 216. 5 252. 4 292. 4 301. 0 302. 6 304.4 306.2 308. 1 312. 6 314.4 316.8 318. 2 320.3 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic Research, in International Economic Indicators. i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Mercttandise exports Merc landise imports Domestic3 exports Period Total domestic and foreign Total * 2 exports Ge neral im 3orts Food, Crude Food, Crude bever- mate- Manubever- matefac2 rials rials tured Total ages, ages, and to- and and to- and goods bacco fuels bacco fuels F. a.s. valu e 5 Monthly average : 1973 1974 balance ManuTotal fac(c.i.f. 4 tured value) goods Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Exports Exports (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less less imimports ports (f.a.s.) Custonis value 5,902 8, 159 5,811 8,045 1, 078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,416 1974 8, 159 1975 8, 966 1976 __ 9, 596 1977 10, 096 1977: Aug,__. 9, 683 Sept 11, 039 Oct 9, 357 N o v _ _ - 9,478 Dee___ 10, 999 1978: Jan 10, 014 Feb__- 9, 922 Mar___ 10, 912 Apr_._ 11, 635 May 11, 754 June___ 12, 126 July— 11, 793 Aug>__ 12, 469 8, 045 8,842 9,456 9, 915 1,269 1,399 1,436 1, 332 1, 341 1,466 1, 023 1, 135 1,472 1,281 1,531 1,604 1,693 1,897 1,963 1, 844 2,008 1,317 1, 266 1,341 1, 548 1,307 1,531 1,466 1, 500 1,493 1,402 1, 282 1,483 1,699 1,781 1, 930 1,636 1,758 5, 294 5,913 6,437 6,681 6,469 7,518 6,277 6, 382 7,463 6,739 6,674 7, 145 7,562 7,548 7, 751 7,859 8, 232 8, 354 8, 048 10, 084 12, 307 12, 101 12, 942 12, 587 12, 407 13, 474 12, 381 14, 440 13, 699 14, 496 13, 992 13, 723 14, 779 14, 090 i Total excludes it ol Defen se shipmen ts of grant-aid militar y supplies and equipment under th e Military jAssistance Program, 28 Total includes commoditu>s and trans actions noi classified a ccording to kind. Total arrivals ()f imported goods othe r than intninsit shipments. * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, anc1 freight) iniport value at first po rt of entry n the United States. Da ta for 1973 iire estimate s. Mer 3handise trade 3 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 991 1, 186 1,088 1, 115 998 962 1,442 1,276 1,363 1,370 1,370 1,313 1,135 1,323 1, 141 1,120 2,653 value 5 2, 672 2,718 3,457 4,463 4, 352 4,571 4,680 4,771 3,900 3,912 4,362 3,928 4,139 4,461 4,221 4,147 4,414 3,750 4, 684 6, 131 9,000 4, 602 4,257 5,398 6, 379 6,393 6,844 6,767 6,140 7,556 7,264 8,464 8,043 8, 636 8,247 8, 020 P, 864 8, 195 9,000 8,654 10, 825 13, 130 12, 897 13, 813 13, 432 13, 203 14, 370 13, 157 15, 381 14, 570 15, 436 14, 894 14, 607 15, 748 15, 030 112 -257 -195 —257 —195 853 918 —581 —488 —2, 297 —2, 211 -2, 466 -2, 418 -1,967 -1,903 -3,314 -3, 230 -3,011 -2, 929 -2, 581 -2, 475 -2,455 -2, 367 -4, 649-4, 518 -2, 915 -2,787 -2,983 -2,861 -2,358 -2,238 -1, 702 -1, 597 -3, 082 -2, 987 — 1,706 -1, 621 — 229 -841 —841 312 —1, 229 —3, 034 — 3, 214 —2, 775 -4, 074 -3, 725 -3, 371 — 3, 143 — 5,459 -3, 658 — 3, 801 — 3, 141 -2, 482 — 3, 956 —2, 561 * F.a.s. (fi-ee alongside3 ship) valu e basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreig n port ol 63tportation f or imports. NOTE.— I>ata beginn ing 1975 no t strictly COBapaxable w th earlier <5lata. Source: D epartment of Commerce, Bureau oif the Censu,3. 00 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter, the cvrrewt account deficit fell to $3.3 billion, down from $6.9 billion in the first quarter, as the merchandise trade deficit fell $3.4 billion to $7.8 billion. BILLIONS OF .DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES Tf70 . '1975 1971 1977 I 1978 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC 'ADVISERS SOURCE: »B?ARTMENT Of COMMERCE [MilMons of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] M erchandise Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Exports Imports Invc,stment in come3 12 "Miaf jLNeTJ K«l UEU.— ance 43, 319 -45,579 -2,260 49, 381 -55,797 -6,416 911 71, 410 -70,499 98, 306 - 103, 649 -5,343 9,047 107, 088 -98,041 114, 694 -124,047 -9,353 120, 555 -151,658 -31,103 -36, 496 -7, 017 -37,258 -6, 628 -38,265 -7, 253 -39,639 - 10, 205 Receipts Payments 12, 688 -5,436 14, 694 -6,544 21, 697 -9,655 27, 541 - 12, 084 25, 359 - 12, 564 29, 244 -13,311 32, 100 -14,593 -3, 197 -3,601 -3,610 -4, 185 1977:1--II— IIIIV__ 29, 479 30, 630 31, 012 29, 434 1978: !_._ II*. 30, 664 -41, 865 -11,201 9,381 -4, 503 35, 067 -42, 869 -7, 802 9,917 -5, 297 21 Excludes military grants. 8 Adjusted from Census data 7,796 8,088 8,220 7,997 for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 "NW Xi Cu 7,252 8,150 12, 042 15, 457 12, 795 15, 933 17, 507 NetNet travel and military transtrans- portaactions tion receipts -2,893 — 2, 315 -3,621 -3,028 -2, 287 -3,086 -2, 080 -3, 105 -876 -2, 522 312 -2, 245 1,334 -3,044 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and serv-l ices 2,294 2,509 2,789 -2, 125 3, 185 10, 766 3,975 8,905 4,617 23, 060 4,714 9,361 4,749 -10,558 -1,622 -1,434 — 1,594 -5,905 Remittances, pensions, and otner unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account -3,701 -1,407 -3,854 -5,979 -3,881 6,885 -7, 186 1, 719 -4,615 18, 445 -5,022 4,339 -4, 708 -15,265 4,599 4,487 4,610 3,812 568 295 467 5 -907 — 759 — 677 -701 1,136 1,171 1,260 1, 183 4,878 4,620 210 575 -823 — 630 1,361 -5, 576 — 1,282 — 6, 858 1,329 — 1,908 -1,353 -3, 261 -1,126 -1,243 -1,277 -1,064 NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -2, 748 -2, 677 -2, 871 -6, 969 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Foreign official assets in the U.S. fell by $4.9 billion In the second quarter of 1978, almost offsetting the accumulation of other foreign assets in the U.S.; accumulation of U.S. assets abroad was $5.0 billion, led by only a $4.1 accumulation of U.S. private assets abroad in fhe wake of the declining value of the dollar. BILLIONS , OF DOLLARS BHUQNS OF DOLLARS 30 r SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 20 %t CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS m THE U.S., NET t I t -I- 10 10 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NET -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 1970" 1978 1977 SOURC6 DBPAKTMe'lf Of' COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capita 1 outflow (-)] Foreigrt official ass>ets Period Total 1971. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Fore ign assets in the U S., net [inci"ease/eapilbal inflow (+)]« Other U.S. U.S. official U.S. private reserve2 Govern- assets2 assets * ment assets 1978: I_— -15,036 II »_ —4, 966 Assets of Other foreign foreign official assets reserve agencies 26, 895 10, 705 6,299 10, 981 6,907 18, 073 37, 124 27, 405 -3,907 10, 322 10, 991 5, 145 12, 364 10, 257 23, 696 5,259 8,643 13, 080 18, 897 35, 480 13, 746 -388 -949 3 2,490 6 — 795 -11,214 14, 064 151 - 1, 098 -5,668 14, 251 -838 -13,862 20, 065 5,451 7,884 8,246 15, 543 4,946 -2,962 7,467 6, 180 7,914 6,005 15, 153 4,522 246 -896 -14,386 18, 095 15, 760 14, 956 329 -1, 151 -4, 144 229 -4, 924 —4, 614 i Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and he U.S. reserve position in the IMF. f 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Total 1,884 - 12, 939 22, 987 -1,568 -12,925 21, 696 -2,644 -20,388 18, 663 366 -33,643 34, 677 -3,470 -35,368 15, 550 -4,213 -43,865 36, 969 -3,679 -30,740 50, 869 -12,475 2,348 - 14, 461 32 _ -22,823 209 -34,712 - 1, 434 -39,444 -607 -50,608 -2,530 -34,650 -231 1977: I - 1, 334 II -12,003 III... -6,615 IV -14,700 Total 2, 336 5, 152 Statistical discre pancy Allocations Of of Total which: special (sum of Seasonal drawing the adjustrights items ment (SDR) with sign discrepreversed) ancy 717 -9,822 710 — 1, 966 -2,725 -1,684 5,449 9,300 -954 U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15,883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 1,592 131 19, 120 616 -178 19, 156 — 4,766 -2,230 18, 988 1,604 2,276 19, 312 3,798 7,998 160 19, 192 12 18, 864 NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1977. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. G O V E R N M E N T PRINTING OFFICE 375 DMSION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits. National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures • Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits. Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment • - « • * • • « * • • • • • — 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force • Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment • >t Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy • • 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures. New Construction .. New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders • » 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices. . Changes in Producer Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers • 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock 26 Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit.. Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis .... »,. 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports. U.S. International Transactions For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402 Price $1.30 (single copy). 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