Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1949
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tflst Congress, 1st Session *?t i.ouis P"Hic libra: Economic Indicators SEPTEMBER 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1949 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts THEODORE J. KREPS, Staff Director GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the use of-the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint committee. Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information. Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. 11 Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter of Transmitted Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy, to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic fomf the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes complete responsibility for the graphic presentation. This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to^the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this material available. Sincerely yours, Chairman. Chairman. Qf * ff iU Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Page The Nation's Economic Budget 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Employment in Business and Government Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures Weekly Production—Selected Indicators New Construction , New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income , Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit : 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public IV 30 31 32 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget total declined slightly from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949. The fall in business investment, due mainly to inventory liquidation, more than o f f s e t the rise in Government expenditures. 1949, 1st Quarter * TOTAL (Gross National Product ) (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)^ EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES -) , RECEIPTS ( +) 262 5 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ) CONSUMERS Transfer payments!^ 1 , + 1 : INCOME , CON- | '95.0 : ' j SUMER * SAVING 1779 BUSINESS !„.. EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL |: EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT """"" ' " • " • - " " - " " • ' • " " - ' • • " I ' ( Federal, state and local) - - - 1 CASH I SURPLUS T 57.5 56 7 ' ^•Transfer payments 1949, TOTAL 2nd Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) (Gross National Product) ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ CONSUMERS Transfer payments!^ INCOME — >942 | 1 CONSUMER ' SAVING 1782 BUSINESS 28.2 JJj EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL 1 0.5 EXCESS OF INVESTMENT 0.8 GOVERNMENT ( Federal, state and local) SS.6*J \ • a ^- Transfer payment Li L/ I/ | ° - - . —— CASH DEFICIT 1 PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices declined in July to the lowest point since April 1948 and to 3.3 percent below their postwar peak A drop in food prices accounted for most of the decline. Apparel and housefurnishings prices also fell while other prices showed little change. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE - 1942 1940 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 100 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average __ _ 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ 1948: July Au gust __ .._ September October .. _ November December 1949: January _ February March April Mayj _ _ ___ ___ June __ __ _ Julv All items 99. 4 100. 2 105.2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 171.2 173 7 174. 5 174. 5 173. 6 172. 2 171. 4 170. 9 169. 0 169. 5 169 7 169. 2 169. 6 168. 5 Food 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 210. 2 216. 8 216. 6 215.2 211. 5 207. 5 205. 0 204. 8 199. 7 201. 6 202 8 202. 4 204. 3 201. 7 NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Apparel 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 198. 0 197. 1 199. 7 201. 0 201. 6 201. 4 200. 4 196. 5 195. 1 193. 9 192. 5 191. 3 190. 3 188. 5 Rent 104. 3 104. 6 106.2 108. 5 108. 0 108.2 108. 3 108. 6 111. 2 117.4 117. 3 117. 7 118. 5 118. 7 118. 8 119. 5 119. 7 119. 9 120. 1 120. 3 120.4 120. 6 120. 7 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings 99.0 99.7 102.2 105.4 107. 7 109. 8 110.3 112.4 121. 1 133.9 134.8 136.8 137.3 137.8 137.9 137.8 138.2 138.8 138.9 137.4 135.4 135. 6 135. 6 101. 3 100.5 107.3 122.2 125. 6 136.4 145. 8 159.2 184.4 195.8 195.9 196.3 198. 1 198.8 198.7 198.6 196.5 195. 6 193. 8 191. 9 189.5 187. 3 - 186.8 Miscellaneous 100.7 101. 1 104.0 110.9 115.8 121.3 124. 1 128.8 139.9 149. 9 150. 8 152.4 152.7 153.7 153.9 154.0 154. 1 154. 1 154. 4 154. 6 154. 5 154. 2 154. 3 WHOLESALE PRICES W h o l e s a l e prices declined slightly during August primarily because of a drop in farm prices. Other wholesale prices registered little net change during the month. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 220 200 OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS I I i l l I I I I I 1945 SOURCE: LATEST DAT* DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R . >LOTTED-MONTHI_Y: AUGUST [1926=100] All commodities Period 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June_ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: July August September October November December 1949: January February March April May June Julv 1 August Week ended: August 2 9 _ -- -- - -- . -- -----_ _ _ -_-_ __ - - Farm products Foods 82.7 99.6 130. 7 112.9 168.7 179. 1 188. 3 189.8 186.9 87.3 98.8 121. 1 112. 9 152. 1 165. 1 168. 8 169.8 168.9 165.4 164.0 162.4 160. 6 158. 1 158.4 156.9 155. 7 154.4 153.4 152. 2 82.4 105.9 148.9 140. 1 181.2 188. 3 195. 2 191.5 189.9 183.5 180.8 177.3 172.5 168.3 171.5 170.5 171.2 168. 5 165.8 161. 0 174.3 170.2 165.8 161.5 162.9 162.9 163.8 162.4 161.3 159. 8 152. 6 152. 7 151. 9 151. 9 152. 4 164. 3 163. 8 160. 1 159. 8 161.6 160.6 161.4 161.0 161.3 161.9 17S.2 Other than farm products and foods • 89.0 95.5 109. 5 105.6 135. 2 151.0 151. 4 153.3 153. 6 153.4 153. 6 153. 1 152.9 151.8 150.7 uao 146.8 145. 4 145.0 144. 9 144.9 145.0 144.9 144. 9 144. 9 16 _ _ _ _ _ 23 -- 30 1 Estimate based on change in weekly index. NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison. Source: Department of Labor. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS With decreases in most major commodity groups from July to August, the index of prices received by farmers, and the parity ratio, continued the decline that started in April. PERCENT OF 1910- 14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE P R I C E S RECEIVED 150 PARITY RATIO* I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 I I I I J F M A M J I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1947 1948 I I I I I I J A S O N D 1949 * RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices paid by Prices (includ- Parity ratio 8 received l farmers ing interest2 by farmers and taxes) Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: July August September October No vember. December. _ 1949: January February March April May June July August 1 August 1909-July 3 1910-14= 100. 3 * 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 301 293 290 277 271 268 124 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 249 77 94 106 119 116 117 121 120 115 251 251 250 249 247 247 120 117 116 111 109 108 268 258 261 260 256 252 249 245 248 245 246 246 245 245 244 243 108 105 106 106 104 103 102 101 1914=100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture, In STOCK PRICES Stock prices of industrials and utilities, after reaching a new 1949 peak in August, declined slightly in the last weeks of the month. PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE 175 175 W E E K L Y AVERAGE 125 RAILROADS V'"\£. *• UTILITIES V \S« '.33940 41 42 43 J 44 45 46 47 48 1947 J A S O N D J F 1948 M A M J J A 1949 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. [1935-39 = 100] Combined index 1 Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 ._ _ 1946 1948 1948: July August September October. November December 1949: January __ February March _ _ April May _ June Julv August _ Week ended: August 3 _ _ 10 17 24 • 31 _ _ _ __ Industrials Railroads 94 2 69. 4 139 9 124. 4 131 9 127. 1 125.7 127. 8 120 4 119. 4 121. 0 117. 2 118. 0 118 5 117. 7 112. 0 117. 8 121. 9 94 8 71. 3 143 4 130. 6 138 9 133 5 131. 7 134. 3 126 4 125. 5 127. 3 122. 7 123. 7 124 2 123. 4 117. 0 123. 4 128. 2 120. 122. 123. 121. 121. 126. 129. 129. 127. 127. 3 9 3 1 3 6 2 6 2 5 Utilities 98 ( 74 7 66. 1 143 0 114. 7 124 7 119 7 120. 4 120. 9 108 8 105. 8 105. 9 99. 6 97. 4 97 1 95. 8 88. 4 90. 6 94. 6 120. \ 96. ^ 99 i 97. [ 97. c 97. A 94 * 92. £ 94. 2 94. 4 95. 2 96. 1 95. 2 93. ( 95. 4 98. F 91. 7 97. 2 96. 4 93. 2 92. 6 97. 3 98. 7 99. 5 98. 5 98. 7 6i. : 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. 96113—49 S O N O EMPLOYMENT Unemployment declined 400,000 in August. Totai civilian employment rose a quarter of a million. The increase of nearly a million and a half in nonagricultural industries was almost o f f s e t by a decline in agricultural employment. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 40 UNEMPLOYMENT- MAGNIFIED 1944 1946 1947 \ r SCALE J F M A MONTHLY A V E R A G E COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Thousands of persons 14 years nf age and over] Total labor force, including armed forces Period 1 939 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: July August-September. October _ November.* __ December _ __ __ 1949: January February March. _ April _ _ Mav__ .June July August _ 55, 600 65, 890 60, 820 61, 608 62, 748 65, 135 64,511 63, 578 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 61, 546 61, 896 62, 305 62, 327 63, 452 04, 866 65, 278 65, 104 Civilian employment 1 Total 45, 750 53, 960 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 61, 615 61, 245 60, 312 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 57, 414 57. 168 57, 647 57, 819 58, 694 59, 619 59, 720 59, 947 In nonagricultural industries 36, 140 45, 010 46, 030 49, 761 51, 405 52, 452 52, 801 51,590 51 , 506 51, 932 52, 059 50, 651 50, 174 50, 254 49, 999 49, 720 49, 924 50, 073 51,441 In agriculture 9, 610 8,950 8, 320 8, 266 7,973 9, 163 8,444 8,723 8,627 7,961 7,375 6,763 6, 993 7, 393 7,820 8,974 9,696 9,647 8,507 Armed forces 370 11,260 3,300 1,440 1,307 1,293 1,325 1,366 1, 391 1,414 1,453 1,468 1,508 1,491 1,492 1,469 1,468 1,463 1,468 Unemployment 9,480 670 2,270 2, 142 2,064 2,227 1,941 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 2, 664 3, 221 3, 167 3,016 3,289 3,778 4,095 3,689 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, _ , r~ " IN __ —_ _.. GOVEI*NMICMT Employment continued to hold steady in nondurable manufacturing industries in July but declined further in durable manufacturing. Contract construction employment, while slightly below last year, continued to increase seasonally. MILLIONS OF WAGE MILLIONS OF WAGE AND S A L A R Y WORKERS AND S A L A R Y WORKERS 1 2 12 MONTHLY AVERAGE /-—v A a x' RAD 1 \ A ^ \ x"*^ / IRAR LE FACT U R I N G x ^ o \ I I *^P=* ---"' > -"* ' "/ ^^^^^ ^^ ^**NCT / ~~~*^ INAN CE AND SERVICE S / _/ ' _/^f % «*«-*—-••—"--• s — —— •«%. MANUFACTURING 6 " / _..*^nr-"u_^ -^ua,,!^^ 6 ^ GOV ERNNflENT T 4 ^X--<>-K>-<^_ -O — -o-—°"~"^^\ o-— ^-oo— ^^ ^°j[ TRANSPORTATION AND" PU8LI C UT LITIES ^-CONTRACT COf^ STRUCTION s -^ ^^ ^^^ -•" — - —- *x'' ""\_-.--^"" V, G X ININ 1 0 1939 — — *-*^r 1940 1941 1942 I 1943 1944 1 1945 M M ! 1946 M 1 J A S 0 J F M A M J M N D M J F M A M J J A i S l O M M ! l N D J F M A M M J J M A S 0 1 O N D 1949 1948 1947 Depor.me [Thousands of wage and salary workers l Durable manufacturing Period Nondurable manufacturing Trade Transportation and Finance and Government (Federal, public service State, local) utilities Contract construction Mining 4,357 10, 297 7, 180 8,055 8, 214 5,720 7,084 7,335 7,846 8,063 6, 705 7, 322 8,820 9,450 9, 746 4, 610 5, 187 6,016 6,278 6,400 3, 987 6,049 5, 607 5,449 5, 658 2,912 3,619 4,023 4,060 4,065 1, 150 1,567 1,661 1,921 2,060 845 917 852 911 925 1948: June July August September October November December 8, 122 8, 165 8, 188 8,294 8, 318 8,303 8, 222 7, 993 8,007 8,253 8,403 8, 279 8, 158 8, 061 9, 670 9, 646 9, 660 9,733 9, 889 10, 036 10, 381 6,389 6,399 6, 383 6,379 6, 364 6,364 6, 346 5, 607 5, 599 5,650 5,801 5,789 5, 714 5,994 4, 105 4, 136 4, 139 4,092 4,091 4, 066 4,066 2, 173 2,219 2, 253 2, 239 2,206 2, 162 2,079 950 922 952 948 941 938 939 1949* Januarv February.. March April 2 May June 2 July 2 8, 005 7,898 7,807 7,656 7,451 7, 430 7, 309 7, 885 7,879 7,818 7,676 7, 579 7,631 7, 642 9, 625 9, 513 9, 525 9,683 9, 535 9, 520 9, 421 6,265 6,272 6, 314 6, 362 6,405 6, 394 6,378 5,761 5, 759 5,762 5, 773 5,820 5, 783 5,751 3,978 3,956 3,912 3,929 3, 952 3, 984 3,970 1, 906 1,820 1, 841 1,941 2,020 2, 078 2, 149 925 922 914 919 908 913 889 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1 946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. ._ _ - - 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during^the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Average weekly hours of work in manufacturing industries remained practically unchanged in July but were about 1 hour below July 1948. HOUR S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES RETAIL TRADE 50 50 MONTHLY AVERAGE » 45 45 ^\ 40 / \ J 40 35 35 30 30 25 0 TTTT^TTTI 42 44 46 48 1 l i I I 1 I I 1I I 1947 I M I I I II I I i 1948 I M 1 I 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 40 1949 i 1 42 1 1 J_J 44 1 1 L 1 1 1 1 i [ 46 48 1 1 1 1947 l l i 1 i 1i i I i I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 50 50 vu ifr \r \ 45 /xN v 40 / 35 / \J s 25 T7T777TTT 40 42 44 46 . I I I 1 1 1 II 48 .1 40 1948 \A^"-I**V» ^ y /*^~ 35 s/jW~ 30 ^ 25 1 I 1 1 I 1. 1 1 M 1947 45 f^ i 30 0 ^"^ 25 _________________ -10 _~.S~*\*^^ -N^- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 , 1 1 1 1 1. 1 1 1 1 1 40 1949 42 44 46 48 I 1i i i 1 i i l l I 1947 * SEE NOTE ON TABLE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1948 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Hours per week, selected industries] All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average __ 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ 1948: June July August- _ September October.. . _ _ November December 1949: Januarv February _ March April 3 May _ June 33 July 1 2 3 4 _. . .. _ _ _ _ _ Retail trade 37. 7 40. 6 45. 2 43. 4 40. 4 40. 3 40. 1 40. 2 39. 8 40. 1 39 8 40. 0 39. 8 40. 0 39. 5 39. 3 39. 0 38 3 38. 5 38. 9 38. 8 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. Not available; series being revised. Source: Department of Labor. Digitized 8 for FRASER (4) (4) 43 0 42. 5 40 3 40. 3 40 5 40. 2 40. 1 40. 3 40. 8 41. 0 40 2 39. 7 39 5 40. 2 40 0 40.0 39. 9 40 1 40 1 Bituminous coal mining (4) (4) 27 1 31. 1 43 4 42. 3 41. 6 40. 6 38. 0 39. 9 2 34. 2 39. 4 37 9 38. 6 37 1 38. 5 39 3 38. 0 36. 1 36 4 37. 2 *• Building construction l («) (4) 32 6 34 8 39 6 39 0 38 1 37 6 37 3 37 9 37. 8 37 8 37 6 37 3 36 4 37 8 37 0 36. 5 36 3 37 4 37 4 WORK STOPPAGES With no work stoppages of important size in July, man-days of idleness dropped sharply. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE I 5 15 M Number of stoppages Period 1 M J J A S O OF ECONOMIC ; SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1939 1941_ _ _ 1942 1943 . _ _ _ _ _ 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1948: June Julv August__ September _ October November December 1949: Januarv l l February . March *" April l i May June L_ _ Julv A 1949 1948 Beginning; in period __ _ _ __ _ _ 2, 613 4,288 2, 968 3, 752 4, 956 4, 750 4, 985 3, 693 3,419 349 394 355 299 256 216 144 225 225 275 400 450 375 300 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. Jn effect during month 565 614 603 553 468 388 283 400 350 400 500 600 550 525 Workers involved in stoppages Beginning in period (thousands) 1, 171 2, 363 840 1,981 2, 116 3, 467 4, 600 2, 170 1, 960 169 218 143 158 110 111 40 70 80 AGO 175 250 575 110 Man-days idle during period Tn effect during month (thousands) Monthly average (thousands) Percent of estimated vrorking tiirif 0. 28 . 32 . 05 . 15 .09 . 47 1. 43 243 307 232 267 194 389 93 110 120 540 225 320 660 225 1,484 1,921 349 1, 125 727 3, 169 9,667 2, 883 2,842 2, 220 2, 670 2, 100 2, 540 2, 060 1, 910 713 800 650 3, QOO . 1, 800 3, 200 4, 600 2, 100 -i! . 0< . 28 . 36 . 26 30o . 27 26 . 09 . 11 . 10 .46 . 25 . 45 . 61 . 31 N D PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Preliminary estimates indicate that industrial production in August fully recovered the 4 percent drop in July, which had been due in part to the spreading practice of plant-wide vacations, especially in nondurables. This was the first rise since October 1948. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE Poifrts in Total Index 250 - 250 200 - 200 P££ 150 - 150 100 - 1949 SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total=100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average. 1945 monthly average __ _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ 1948 monthly average 1948; July August September October November December. _ _ 1949: January February _ March. ' A pril Mav _ _ June 1 July __. August 1 1 10 Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Minerals production Total Durable goods ble goods 100 239 203 170 187 192 186 191 192 195 195 192 191 189 184 179 174 169 162 169 100 258 214 177 194 198 192 197 199 202 201 199 198 196 193 184 179 175 169 176 100 360 274 192 220 225 219 223 225 231 229 231 227 225 223 212 201 194 186 194 100 176 166 165 172 177 169 177 178 179 178 173 175 173 168 162 161 161 156 162 100 132 137 134 149 155 153 159 156 158 161 156 149 149 136 148 145 134 124 127 Manufactures Durable goods Nondura- Minerals ble goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 83 84 85 87 87 87 86 85 84 81 76 74 70 74 47 83 78 77 81 83 79 82 83 84 83 81 82 81 79 76 75 75 73 76 15 20 21 21 23 24 23 24 24 24 25 24 23 23 21 23 22 20 19 19 Preliminary estimate. Part of the July decline, especially in nondurables was due to the spreading practice of plant-wide vacations. The seasonal adjustment factor has not been revised to take account of this. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES n July production of most manufactured durable goods declined. Output of iron and steel again fell sharply but made some recovery in August. July production of lumber and products and machinery was lower but nonferrous metals was about the same as in. June. ' PERCE NT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E IRON AND STEEL 250 200 LUMBER AND -ry ~Y 1 50 100 ' i 1 I luJ. J 1 L 40 42 46 44- Mill 48 i i i M 1 1 ii i i ir I i i 1947 SEASONALLY 1 50 1 00 L M 1JM 1 I 40 1949 42 44 MACHINERY 350 I™., i 300 V 250 I 200 1 50 1 00 / M i l l 48 1 i 1 M 1 II i 1 1 1 II 1 1 1947 j i \ || J ) i j L i 1948 1949 NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS MONTHLY -^ ^^ \ 250 \ Mill 44 46 48 1 1 1 1 1 AVERAGE 300 150 40 42 46 350 200 *i i i i i i i i i ADJUSTED 200 i M 1111111i 1948 PRODUCTS 250 r\ \ S 1 M II 1 1 M II 1947 1 1 M 1 1948 1 M 1 1 100 1949 A-t / V 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40 42 48 44 46 S\ „. \xT^~]"A V 1 1 1 M 1 1 M 1 1 1947 M M l l l JJJJ_ i I M I i i i i ii 1948 1949 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M . [1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted] Iron and steel Period 1 935-39 monthly average 1 943 monthly average ,„_.... _ . . . _ . . 1 945 monthly average - 1946 monthly average 1947 monthlv average. 1948 monthly average 1948: June July August September October November December 1 949 • January February March April May June _ July 1 - . _ _ _ _ _ __ _ ___ _ _. Nonferrous metals and products Lumber and products Machinery 100 208 183 150 105 208 100 129 109 131 143 145 100 443 343 240 276 277 100 267 204 157 187 193 208 201 207 214 221 224 223 140 142 148 143 147 145 143 277 269 271 273 277 276 277 194 185 1 86 192 192 187 184 228 939 233 219 204 177 156 129 123 129 126 126 124 116 268 262 252 240 232 226 219 183 185 183 167 145 132 130 1 Preliminary estimate. See page 10, footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. n PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES Production of textiles ond chemicals dropped in July. Food processing and petroleum refining remained at about their June rates, PERCE S)T CF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLV MONTHLY AVERAGE 100 0 A/ 200 200 J 1 I 40 " 1 1 42 j 1 44 1 1 46 1 ~^P~v 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 I1 48 I II I 1 1 I !! 1947 1 1 100 1 1 I 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1948 0 p~ 1 ! 1 1 1 42 44 1 1 1 1 46 1 1 II 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 48 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS ^ ^ ^-" JV 40 1949 AVERAGE 1947 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 I 11 1948 CHEMICAL 1949 PRODUCTS 400 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY JL AVERAGE j\ 300 300 **l 200 200 100 100 .. * •*»-*> "•" - "^ J 0 ^ 1 1 I "1 J 40 42 1 44 1 1 46 1' 1 i iii 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 ! 1 1 1 II 1 I II 1 1 1 1947 1948 1949 48 0 1 1 40 1 i 42 I 1 44 I 1 46 1 48 1 II M 1 I I 1 II 1947 I! 1 I1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL 1949 OF ECONOMIC [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average . 1945 monthly average . 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. _ 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 1948: June July August September _ October. November . _ December 174 154 166 168 167 164 156 220 217 221 207 217 227 231 163 160 156 163 161 159 158 256 251 259 257 255 257 257 160 157 142 129 123 127 122 228 221 213 209 207 203 205 160 162 162 162 162 164 163 257 250 245 237 234 231 226 J949: January Februar}'.. March April May June July i__ __ _ „ _ _ _. _ _ _ 1 Preliminary estimate. See page 10, footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Digitized 12 for FRASER ADVISERS WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel production in August recovered the July drop and by early September was back to the mid-June rate. Electric power continued above rates of a year ago. Bituminous coal mining remained at a low rate as the shortened workweek continued. The August output of cars and trucks was the highest since April 1929. MILLIONS OF TONS 3 BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS STEEL ELECTRIC POWER 1949 1948^ A S 0 A S O N O MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS 3.0 M J J N A D S 0 N D SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Steel (thousands of net tons) Period Weekly average: 1947 1948 Week ended: 1948" Aug 7 14 _ 21 28 Sept. 4 11 1949: Aug 6 13 > __ _ __ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ 20 27 Sept. 3 10 __ -__ _. . Electric power, Bituminous coal by utilities (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) 1 Cars and trucks (number) 1,637 1, 700 4,821 5,300 2,008 1,906 90, 860 100, 670 1 697 1, 710 1, 712 1, 729 1, 716 1, 703 5 319 5,318 5, 391 5, 478 5,470 5, 166 2,029 2,094 2,065 2,036 2,042 2,236 107, 107, 107, 95, 96, 74, 219 174 924 715 484 744 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5,466 5,430 5, 579 5, 523 1, 258 1,333 1, 258 1,318 136, 140, 142, 148, 141, 507 147 663 469 380 499 517 539 563 591 552 1 Daily average for week. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 96113—49 3 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 NEW CONSTRUCTION The value of new construction, continuing to increase in August, was 2 ! /2 percent above July and less than 2 percent below the August 1948 peak. 2,000 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 1,500 1,500 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 i \ i \I \ I i Fl I 1939 I J 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 1949 1948 1947 *INCL(JDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: June July August September October November December 1949: January February March April _ _ _ _ __„ May June Julv August 2 1 2 Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 688 932 1,214 1,348 1,423 1,454 1,427 1, 355 1,256 1, 129 1,002 905 951 997 1,117 1,239 1,309 1,336 Includes public residential construction, Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 14 __^ _ _ 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1,565 1, 754 1,874 1, 934 1,901 1,814 1, 646 1,447 1,293 1, 172 1,267 1,378 1,585 1 745 1,853 1,902 Total private 176 110 45 265 438 602 682 707 720 707 670 615 547 475 400 420 445 530 600 650 660 Other 141 141 107 422 493 612 666 716 734 720 685 641 582 527 505 531 552 587 639 659 676 Federal, State, and local J 208 867 193 184 262 351 406 451 480 474 459 390 318 291 267 316 381 468 506 544 566 D NEW HOUSING STARTS Housing starts declined slightly in July to 96,000 or about the same level as in July 1948. A total of 549,000 new houses started during the first 7 months of 1949 was just 4 percent below the number started during the same period of last year. T H O U S A N D S OF UNITS 125 J THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 F M A M J SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. NOMIC A D V I S E R S New nonfarm units started Month 1947 January February March .. _ April May June July August September October _ November December . . - _ _ - , - - Total Monthly average - 1948 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86,600 82, 200 73,400 63, 600 52, 900 849, 000 931, 300 70, 750 77, 600 1949 50, 000 50,400 69, 400 88, 300 1 95, 000 1 100, 000 1 96, 000 1 Preliminary estimate. Source L Department of Labor. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Estimated nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in 2nd quarter of 1949 showed, for the first time in the postwar period, no gain over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Anticipated expenditures in 3rd quarter of this year run lower, with electric and gas utilities the only field to show a continued gain. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS I "UTILITIES 1939 1941 1945 SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total « Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad 1939 _ 1941 . 1945 1947 _ 1948 . _ 1947: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948* First quarter .. . Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949' First quarter 3 Second quarter4 Third quarter 1 2 3 4 - . ». 5,200 8, 190 6,630 16, 180 19, 230 12, 640 15, 760 16, 560 19, 760 16, 680 19,280 19, 320 21, 640 17, 840 19, 280 18, 520 1,930 3,400 3,210 7,460 8,340 5,800 7,400 7,480 9, 160 7,200 8,560 8,360 9,280 7,400 7,840 7,360 380 680 440 690 800 600 640 720 840 720 800 800 880 760 800 760 280 560 550 910 1,320 640 880 920 1,200 1,080 1,240 1,320 1,640 1,440 1, 640 1,240 Other 280 340 320 800 700 720 920 800 760 720 760 680 680 520 560 680 Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 480 710 630 1,900 2,680 1,320 1, 800 2,000 2,480 2,000 2,560 2,760 3,400 2,720 3,240 3,320 1,850 2,490 1,480 4,430 5,390 3,600 4,120 4,640 5,360 4,960 5,360 5,440 5,760 5,040 5,200 5, 120 Excludes agriculture. Commercial and miscellaneous include trade, service, finance, and communication. Preliminary estimates of actual expenditures. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 16 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES Total proceeds from new corporate security issues more than doubled in the 2nd quarter reflecting a rise in both fixed and working capital financing. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 3.0 3. 0 1939 1943 1946 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948 quarterly average __ _ _ quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average - 1949: First quarter 2 Second quarter _ _ 81 77 270 820 1, 148 1,392 43 35 159 529 852 1,035 39 42 111 291 296 357 448 210 1,206 869 469 212 _ 1,374 2,311 884 2,000 692 1, 654 192 347 ^ 490 310 __ 1, 614 1,663 1,267 1,873 1,400 1,353 1, 045 1,767 845 1,080 764 1,451 555 274 281 316 214 309 221 105 1,056 2,311 850 1,968 699 1,615 152 353 206 343 - _. _ 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter. Second quarter.. Third quarter _ _ Fourth quarter - _ _ __ ._ __ __ Working capital 529 287 1,475 1,689 1,617 1, 604 __ - Plant and equipment Retirement of debt and stock l 1 2 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source ^Securities and Exchange Commission, 17 INVENTORIES AND SALES July was marked by a sharp drop in manufacturing and wholesale sales, largely because of seasonal factors. Retail sales declined moderately. Manufacturing and department store inventories continued to decline. Little change was reported in other trade inventories. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOLLARS WHOLESALE RETAIL 20 20 MONTHLY A V E R A G E INVEr* T( JRIES y f 1 0 .*" s I0 5 au tS U~~^ / \^<^T..-^ 40 BILL IONS 4E 44 s/ L 46 ! M 48 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1947 M i iiii1 ii i ii 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1949 40 42 44 46 1949 4 00 T DRIES \ y **••. J 40 42 44 l 1 M 1947 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! / *"v y /iNVEr / ^ 1 1 1 46 48 j 200 s/ LEIS 1 1 1 1 1 1 i ">' :s S7v /" ' «... ,Cx -T* / XL 300 ) A ^^r~ 0 1948 DEPARTMENT STORES •» 30 1 0 I i 11 1 i 1 l 11 1947 OF D O L L A R S INVEf 20 • 11 11 1 11 1 1j 48 MANUFACTURING 40 E7 1 NVE T JRIES f 1 1 J_ J. I J J I 0 ••"•^/ 00 0 I 1949 1 40 I I 1 I I 42 46 44 ! 1 48 /' \ TC)RIES l 11 1 I 111 I l I I ML I Mill 1948 1947 i i 1 1 i 1i i i i i 1949 5 0 U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FE D E R A L R C S E R V E S Y S T E M Inventories 3 Manufacturing 1 Retail 2 Wholesale l Period Sales 4 Inventories 3 Sales 4 Inventories 3 Sales * 1 3 _ .. _ _ _ „_ 3 4 2,505 3, 650 4,330 4,777 6, 138 7,304 7,867 7,796 8,161 8,286 8,376 8, 242 8, 196 7, 163 6,802 7,489 6,962 7,077 7,086 6,603 5,502 7, 620 7,350 7, 502 11,049 12, 953 14, 556 14, 080 14, 145 14, 531 14, 576 14, 779 14, 556 14, 092 13, 939 14, 237 14, 057 13, 766 13, 892 13, 831 3,504 4,624 5,310 6,387 8,399 9,860 10, 784 10, 857 10, 893 10, 968 10, 894 10, 771 11,062 10, 615 10, 588 10, 620 10, 767 10, 726 10, 681 10, 555 Sales 11,516 17, 024 19, 897 17, 924 23, 435 28, 020 31, 713 30, 236 30, 429 30, 710 30, 848 31, 225 31,713 32, 062 32, 070 31, 793 31, 266 30, 913 30, 304 29, 700 5,112 8, 172 12, 603 12, 371 12, 020 15, 671 17, 587 16, 403 18, 169 18, 781 18, 807 17, 980 18, 130 16, 691 16, 424 18, 107 16, 763 16, 295 16, 535 15, 000 102 131 155 166 213 255 291 285 285 290 290 296 291 278 276 283 280 273 265 256 106 133 168 207 264 286 302 311 309 309 308 6 289 305 295 281 277 294 292 285 280 6 Book value, end of period. Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for Monthly average for year and total month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. 6 for month. Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Not adjusted for seasonal variation. Adjusted for seasonal variation. 8 _ _ 3, 200 4, 151 3,577 4,216 5, 823 7,545 8,315 7,930 8, 100 8,243 8,400 8,507 8,315 8,527 8,567 8,445 8, 186 7,912 7,774 7,830 Inventories 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 6 Millions of dollars 1939 L941 L943 L945 [946 1947 [948 . L948' July August . September October November December 949* January February March April6 May June0e July Department stores MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports dropped sharpfy in July. The value of imports also dropped. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1600 1,400 - - i,200 1400 1200 - 1000 1,000 - 800 800 - 600 600 - 400 400 - 200 200 - 1936-38 1943 1946 1947 M 1948 A M J J A S 0 i\ 0 .1 f V, A M J J A 5 O N D 1947 aQJRCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Exports * Period 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _ 1948 monthly average 1948: June. July AugustSeptember., October November _ _ December 1 94 9 : Janu ary February _ „ _ March April May June _ July _ __ _ _ __ __ _ „ Imports f Excess of exports 247 1, 080 877 849 1,278 1,051 207 282 346 410 478 594 40 798 531 439 801 457 1,015 1,019 990 926 1,021 820 1, 285 625 563 606 560 600 554 720 390 456 384 366 421 266 565 1,094 1,032 1, 159 1, 148 1,077 1, 104 897 590 568 632 534 539 527 456 504 464 527 614 538 578 441 1 3 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. (Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy, 19 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME The revised series on national income shows a $12.1 billion drop, or 5 percent, from the peak in 4th quarter 1948 to 2nd quarter IS49. Corporate profits, including the inventory valuation adjustment, accounted for onehalf of the decline while the compensation .f employees accounted for about one-fourth. B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 250 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATE'S, S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME FITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT; NET INTEREST: PROPRIETORS' ANDRENTAL INCOME 'COMPENSATION OF; EMPLOYEES: 1 939 1944 1947 1948 1 2 1949 3 2* 3 4 1949 1948 1950 S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 72. 5 183.8 179. 6 201. 7 226.2 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' and rental income Net interest 47.8 121.2 117.0 127. 6 140.3 14.7 35. 5 41. 3 45. 1 49. 5 4.2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 3. 8 Total Profits before taxes 5.8 24.0 18.3 25.6 32. 6 Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24.3 23.6 31.6 34.8 -0.7 -.3 -5. 3 — 6. 0 -2.2 33.0 35. 0 36. 6 34. 5 -4. 5 -2.0 -3.3 + 1.2 28.4 24.8 + 2.3 +4.7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter. _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter _ 1949: First quarter Second quarter * 1 2 . 2 215. 1 224. 9 230. 4 234.3 135. 1 137. 7 143.3 144.9 48.0 50.4 49. 9 49. 7 3.6 3. 7 3. 9 4. 1 225. 3 222. 2 142. 5 141.7 47. 8 46.7 4. 2 4.3 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 20 28. 5 33.0 33.3 35.7 2 30. 8 29. 5 2 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits reached their peak rate in 3rd quarter of 1948, and have declined steadily since then, according to revised estimates. In 2nd quarter of 1949, they were $24.8 billion (annual rate), or $11.8 billion below the peak. Change in replacement costs of inventories was equivalent to two-thirds of the drop. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 0 40 SOURCE' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS N O T E D ) [Billions of dollars] Period 1929 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 _ __ . .. . Corporate profits before taxes 9.8 6.5 24.3 23. 6 31. 6 34.8 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 13. 5 9.6 12. 5 13.6 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.8 13.9 19. 1 21.2 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4. 7 5. 8 7.0 7.9 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12. 1 13.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter _ ._ Second quarter Third quarter _ _ Fourth quarter __ - 33.0 35.0 36.6 34.5 12. 8 13.7 14. 4 13.6 20. 2 21. 3 22. 2 20.9 7. 6 7. 7 7.9 8. 3 12. 6 13. 6 14.3 12. 6 1949' First quarter l Second quarter 28. 4 24.8 11. 2 9.7 17.3 15. 1 8.4 8.5 8.9 6.6 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 20 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survev of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 21 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income, after rising slightly in May, dropped moderately in June, and still further in July, reaching a level about 3 percent below the high of December 1948. The biggest July drop was in farm income (part of proprietors' and rental income). BILLIONS DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 A N N U A L RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL ' . > x'' PROPR'I ETORS* A NO1" RENT* SALARIES, WAGES M i ij i i i i tI I I \ \ 4 J A S O N D J 1947 SOURCE: F M A M J J A S O N I D J F 1948 M A M J J A S O N 0 I I 1949 1950 [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period __ 72. 6 165.9 176.9 193. 5 211. 9 Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends and other and rental and personal income interest labor income 45.7 116.2 111.0 122.0 135. 1 14.7 35.5 41.2 45. 1 49. 5 9. 2 10,6 13.2 14.8 16.2 Transfer payments 3.0 3.6 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948' June __ July August September October November _ December 1949' January February March April jVIay _ June l July 1 213.4 214. 5 215.4 216. 3 216. 3 216.6 217.0 215. 7 212. 9 212,4 212.5 213. 1 212.4 209.7 134. 5 136.6 138.5 139. 7 140. 1 139. 5 139. 1 138.6 137. 1 135.6 136.8 137. 1 136.2 135.8 51.8 50.8 49. 5 49. 4 49.0 49.8 50.3 49.0 47.2 47.3 46.3 46. 7 46.8 44.5 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 22 ! C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 ! J .F M A M J 15. 9 16.0 16. 3 16. 5 16. 8 16. 9 16.9 17.0 17. 1 17. 1 17. 2 17.3 17.3 17. 3 11. 2 11. 1 11. 1 10.7 10.4 10.4 10. 7 11. 1 11. 5 12. 4 12.2 12. 0 12. 1 12. 1 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING According to revised estimates, disposable income dropped slightly from 1st to 2nd quarter while expenditures rose slightly, thus reducing the rate of saving by $1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE {Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1940. 1941 1942 1943. 1944 1945 1946 1947_ 1948 70.2 75. 7 92.0 116.2 131. 6 147.0 151. 1 158. 1 172.0 190.8 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90.8 101.6 111. 6 123. 1 147.8 166. 9 178. 8 2.7 3.7 9.8 25.4 30.0 35.4 28.0 10. 3 5. 1 12.0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 2 -. Second quarter _ __ » -_ . _ - _ _ 181. 9 189. 6 195.2 196.2 195.0 194.2 175. 2 178. 7 180.3 180. 9 177.9 178.2 6. 7 10. 8 15. 0 15.3 17. 1 16.0 1 2 Income less taxes. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Figures for 1942-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. Source: Department of Commerce. See 23 PER CAPITA INCOME * Per capita disposable income fell about 1 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949, as measured in current dollars, or in terms of real purchasing power. DOLLARS 1,600 ANNUAL R A T E S , SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D 1,200 I 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 3 1949 4 1947 1 2 3 4 I Per capita disposable personal income l Current 1948 dollars * dollars $536 $923 574 981 1,125 691 1,262 867 --_ 1,314 970 1,065 1,405 1,389 1, 082 1,342 1, 119 1,282 1, 194 1,302 1,302 . . -._ .. .. . _ __ -. - . --- - _ Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1949* First quarter Second quarter *.__ _ __ 1 2 3 _ _ - _ _ _ 4 1 _ _ 1,248 1,296 1,328 1, 328 1,315 1,304 1,273 1,301 1,305 1,319 1,326 1,317 Consumers' price index 8 1948=100 58. 1 58.5 61.4 68.7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93. 1 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 98. 0 99.6 101.8 100.7 99.2 99.0 Income less taxes. Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. Digitized 24 for FRASER 2 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period . I 3 1949 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 ! "2 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries rose slightly in July recorded, according to preliminary data. DOLL ARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES RETAIL TRADE 2.00 2.00 MONTHLY 1.50 1948 „—"=" 1948 <y TT f AVERAGE 1.50 f )0 LLARS* */ 1.00 to the highest, level yet C )0 .LARS"" ^S CUF?RfINT .50 0 40 42 44 46 1 1 1 1 1 TTTi M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i TTTiTTTTTi 1 1 1 48 1947 1948 0 ^ 1.00 .50 0 48 1948 D OL 1947 n i TTT M TTTTT ! 1 1 1948 1949 I / **Maa LA C ~^=n 1.50 >^ ENT DOLLARS CURF Ern DOLLARS 1.00 -/ ^ \============^=====^^ i TiTTTTT V 40 46 ,—'~y -X/ J CUF*R 44 2.00 I948y/ DO LLARS*|OS£! Vl 42 n BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING jpmrn* ***** 2.00 1.50 _ I i I i i i I TTl rTHTl 40 1949 ' DOLLARS .50 n~lTTTTTT~n ,mmtHt> hr^ 1.00 DOLLARS CURRE MT 42 44 46 nTTTTTi 1 1 1 1 48 .50 M I I I nTfi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 0 1 1 40 1949 1 1 42 1 1 | 44 46 | | ^TnTfTi 1 1 iTTi I I M I 48 1947 1948 \ M i!111 M I 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Selected industries] Manufacturing Bituminous coal mining Retail trade Building construction * Period Current dollars 1939 1941 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average average average average average average average _. $0. 633 .729 1.019 1.023 .084 . 221 .327 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 3 $1. 090 1. 187 1.381 1.313 1.230 1.311 1.327 $0. 536 . 568 .724 .773 .878 .991 1.067 $0. 923 .925 .981 .992 1.053 1.064 1.067 $0. 886 .993 1. 186 1.240 1.401 1.633 1.899 $1. 525 1. 617 1. 607 1.592 1. 680 1. 754 1. 899 $0. 932 1.010 1.319 1.379 1.478 1. 681 1.848 $1. 604 1.645 1.787 1.770 1.772 1.806 1.848 1.070 1.077 1.080 1.086 1. 080 1.084 1.072 1.067 1.061 1.060 1.066 1. 065 1.078 1.071 1.850 1.936 1.967 1.970 1.959 1.951 1.960 1.844 1.907 1.930 1.933 1.932 1.939 1.958 1.836 1.862 1.874 1.895 1.892 1. 906 1.915 1.830 1.834 1.839 1.860 1.866 1.895 1.913 1. 949 1. 943 1.941 1.932 1.947 4 (4) () 1.953 1. 969 1.961 1.950 1. 971 4 (4 ) () 1.918 1. 930 1.933 1. 934 1. 931 4 (4) () 1.922 1.955 1.953 1.952 1.954 1948' June _ July August September October November December .316 .332 .349 . 362 1. 366 1.372 1.376 1.312 1.312 1.324 1.337 1.347 1. 364 1. 375 1949' January February March April 3 Mav June 33 Julv 1.380 1. 377 1.374 1.374 1.373 1. 380 1.383 1. 383 1.395 1. 388 1.386 1. 390 1.393 1.405 1 2 ? 4 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4 () (4) 110 104 102 106 114 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 3948= 100. Preliminary estimate. Not available; series being revised. Department of Labor. Digitized Sourcet for FRASER 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4 (4) () 112 119 113 116 128 (44) () See note 3 to table on pa.ee 24. 25 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS .Average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries leveled off in July according to preliminary returns. DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK 40 42 44 46 48 1947 40 42 44 46 48 1947 40 42 44 46 48 1947 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING MONTHLY AVERAGE 1948 DOLLARS* CURRENT DOLLARS 40 42 44 46 48 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Retail trade Current dollars 1948 dollars * Bituminous coal mining Current dollars $36. 44 $23. 88 $21. 17 $41. 07 1939 monthly average $23. 86 30.86 35.73 21. 94 48. 18 1941 monthly average 29.58 51.27 36.02 62.44 26.58 1944 monthly average 46.08 36.34 52.25 56.98 28.31 1945 monthly average 44.39 58.03 39.03 32.55 43.74 52.45 1946 monthly average 66.86 39.39 52.90 36.67 1947 monthly average 49.25 72.57 39.98 39.98 53. 15 53. 15 1948 monthly average 73.87 40.40 40.52 52.69 52.85 1948: June 67.62 40.58 52. 17 41. 19 52.95 Julv 78. 10 40.42 53.04 54.05 41. 19 August 75.51 39.73 40.48 September 54. 19 53. 18 76.40 39.76 40.32 53.90 October _ _ 54.65 73.52 39.43 39.67 54.56 November 54.23 75.79 40.58 40.62 55.01 December 54.96 76.84 41. 87 54.62 41.79 54.51 1949: January 74.31 42. 11 41.56 54. 12 54.83 Februarv 68.41 41.90 54. 13 41.48 March _ 53. 59 72.70 42. 19 52.62 41.81 53. 10 April 3 73. 470 42.91 53.50 42.40 52.86 May _ _ __ 54. 17 53.68 June88 _ _ _ - - - -( 4) (44) (44) 54. 53 53. 66 July () () () 1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. 3 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100, See note 3 to table on page 24. 1 Preliminary estimates. 4 Not available; series being revised. Source: Department of Labor, 26 1948 dollars 2 $41. 10 50.26 69.47 67.07 69.58 71.81 72.57 73.65 66. 62 76. 64 74. 10 75.34 73.08 75.71 76.99 75.29 69. 10 73.36 74.59 ( 44 ) () Building construction 1 Current dollars $30. 39 35. 14 52. 18 53.73 56.24 63.30 68.85 69.53 70.47 70.91 71.29 70.59 69.39 72.33 70.88 70.53 69.83 70.33 71.82 (44) () 1948 dollars 2 $52. 31 57.23 70.70 68.97 67.43 67.99 68.85 69.32 69.43 69.59 69.96 69.62 68.98 72. 26 71.02 71.46 70.54 70.97 72.69 (44) () FARM INCOME Farmers' cash receipts in July were seasonally higher than in June, but nearly 20 percent lower than in July 1948. This reflected chiefly the substantial drop in prices farmers received. In dollars of 1948 farm purchasing power, the decrease was about 15 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 4 II 1939 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 I I 1 I I 1947 "INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT p I I I I I S O N D J 48 II I I II F M A M J I I I I I I I J A S O N D J 1948 I I F M A I I I MJ I I 1 I I J A S O N D 1949 MENTS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. Farm income (millions of current dollars) * Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1 948 monthly average 1948: June July August September October November December 1949: January.. February March April __ May June 4 . _ _ _ July 4 1 2 8 4 . _ _ __ _ _ 724 981 1, 340 1 678 1, 765 1 857 2, 110 2 542 2 609 2 437 2 693 2, 722 3, 132 3 714 3, 314 2 740 2 383 1, 783 1, 973 1, 850 1, 944 2 053 o 177 Prices paid by farmers (incl. Farm income (millions of interest and 1948 dollars) * taxes) 1948= 2 100 49 8 53 0 60 2 65 1 67. 9 69 1 77. 5 92 8 100. 0 100 8 100 8 100 8 100. 4 100. 0 99. 2 99 6 99 6 98. 4 98. 8 98. 8 98.4 98 0 97.6 1, 454 1 851 2, 226 2 578 2, 599 2 687 2, 723 2, 739 2, 609 2,418 2, 672 2, 700 3, 120 3, 714 3,341 2, 751 2, 393 1,812 1, 997 1,872 1,976 2, 095 2,231 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100. Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Agriculture. 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Nondurable goods purchases continued to fall in the 2nd quarter but at a much slower rate. Durable goods (mainly automobiles) ar|d service expenditures advanced. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL EXPENDITURES . DURABLE GOODS'$A llllfNONDURABLE; GOODslllllj SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948__ 67.5 111. 6 147. 8 166. 9 178.8 35.3 67. 1 87. 5 96. 2 102. 2 Durable goods 6.7 7. 1 16. 5 22.0 23. 5 Services 25. 5 37.4 44. 5 48. 8 53. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: First quarter _ _ > Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter 175.2 178. 7 180. 3 180.9 101. 2 102. 4 101.8 103. 3 22. 7 23. 8 24.8 22. 9 51. 3 52. 5 53. 7 54. 8 1949: First quarter Second quarter * 177.9 178.2 99.9 98. 7 22. 5 23.6 55.4 55.9 1 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Figures for 1944-48 are revised and do not agree with data previously published in the Indicators. See Survey of Current Business, July 1949, for details of the revisions. Source: Department of Commerce. CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit increased $63 million in July. The further rise in .instalment credit, particularly for sales of automobiles, was partially offset by a drop in charge accounts. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 2 0 !i ST A LMENT" c Ri "oi f 1111111111111111111 1943 1946 J 1947 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M 1948 1947 END OF YEAR J J A S O N O 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 « _ ._ ... _ 1948: June July August September October November December - __ _ 1949: January Februarv _ __ March April May June 2 July 2 _ __ _ Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans Charge accounts Other consumer credit * 7, 969 5,378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8, 600 1,267 175 544 1, 151 1,961 3, 157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6, 639 1,544 1,498 3, 054 3, 612 3,854 2,001 1,879 3, 137 3,627 3,865 14, 669 14, 723 14, 916 15, 231 15, 518 15, 739 16, 319 7,533 7,738 7,972 8, 190 8,233 8,322 8,600 1,602 1,689 1,781 1,858 1,889 1,922 1,961 5,931 6,049 6, 191 6,332 6,344 6,400 6,639 3,352 3, 185 3, 130 3,227 3,457 3,557 3,854 3,784 3,800 3,814 3,814 3,828 3,860 3,865 15, 749 15, 332 15, 360 15,618 15, 856 16, 122 16, 185 8,425 8,339 8,427 8,627 8,887 9, 114 9, 322 1, 965 1,996 2, 105 2, 241 2,386 2,499 2,614 6,460 6,343 6, 322 6,386 6,501 6,615 6,708 3,457 3, 176 3, 148 3,258 3,249 3,282 3, 130 3,867 3,817 3, 785 3,733 3, 714 3,726 3, 733 1 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans dropped about $800 million in July. Banks increased their holdings of Government securities by $1.5 billion and other securities by $300 million. ONS OF DOLLARS 125 - 125 100 - 100 - 75 - 50 - :;:::;: I fjl 25 - 1 H 11 1929 1939 1945 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M ' J J * A S O N D 1948 END OF YEAR END OF MONTH PREL IMINA ff Y ES TIMA TE' [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929 1939 1945- . 1947 1948. 1948: June July August _ September October November December 1949: January February March _ _ April Mav June July 1 1 _ __ .__ « __ -- Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40. 7 124. 0 116.3 114. 3 113. 9 114.8 115. 1 113. 6 114. 1 114. 2 114. 3 114.5 113. 4 112.5 112.5 113. 4 113. 7 114.7 36.0 17.2 26. 1 38. 1 42.5 39.9 40. 1 40.6 41.7 41.6 42. 3 42.5 42.4 42. 0 42.4 41.3 40.9 41.2 40.4 Total Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 13.5 23.4 97.9 78.2 71.8 74.0 74.6 74.5 71.9 72.5 71.9 71.8 72.0 71.4 70. 1 71.2 72.6 72.5 74.3 U.S. Government securities 4.8 16. 3 90.6 69. 2 62.6 64.8 65.3 65. 1 62.5 63.3 62.8 62.6 63.0 62.2 60.9 62.0 63.2 63. 0 64.5 Other securities 8.7 7. 1 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 9. 1 9.2 9. 1 9. 1 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 MONEY SUPPLY The money supply increased more than $1 billion in July, chiefly a result of a rise in demand deposits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY ( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T, DEPOSITS) .TIME DEPOSITS IADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS 1939 1943 1946 1947 END OF YEAR 1948 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 1947 M J J A S ( J 1948 J A S 0 N D 1949 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1939 _ 1943 1946 1947 1948 _._ 1948: June July August September.. October November December. ». 1949: January February March3 « April3 May June 33 _ __ July . _ _ _ _ _ .. _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ __ _. _ _ _ _ 63.3 112.4 164.0 170.0 169. 1 165. 7 166.0 166. 7 166.9 168. 1 168. 1 169. 1 168. 2 166. 3 164. 2 165.5 165.7 165. 6 166.7 Currency outside banks 6.4 18.8 26. 7 26. 5 26. 1 25. 6 25. 5 25.6 25.7 25. 7 25. 9 26. 1 25.2 25. 1 25. 1 24.9 25.0 25.0 24. 9 Adjusted demand deposits * 29. 8 60. 8 83.3 87. 1 85. 5 82. 7 83. 3 83.8 83. 9 85. 1 85. 2 85. 5 85.4 83.4 81. 1 82.4 82. 6 82.2 83. 3 Time deposits 3 27. 1 32. 7 54.0 56. 4 57. 5 57. 4 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.3 57. 0 57.5 57.6 57.8 58. 0 58. 1 58. 2 58. 4 58. 6 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. 8 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash deficit of about $2.3 billion during the 2nd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.2 billion during the same quarter of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS JL 1947 1946 1948 1949 1948 1949 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS . . EXCESS OF. CASH J947 1946 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public 1 Calendar years Federal cash payments to the public l Calendar year total: 41, 426 1946 44, 279 1947 . _ _ 44, 920 1948 Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 12, 632 1946: First quarter _ __ _ Second quarter 9, 462 Third quarter 9,702 Fourth quarter 9, 630 1947: First quarter . 14, 345 Second quarter __ _ __ 9, 847 Third quarter 10, 220 Fourth quarter 9,869 1948: First quarter __ 15, 037 Second quarter 10, 238 Third quarter 10, 085 Fourth quarter 9, 560 13 122 1949* First quarter 2 8,814 Second quarter 1 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions viously, they were reported as expenditures. 2 Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 32 Excess of receipts (-f ) or payments ( — ) 41, 372 38, 584 36, 954 + 54 -1-5,695 + 7,967 12, 244 + 388 12, 008 -—2 547 8,449 + 1 252 8, 671 + 959 9, 163 + 5 182 10, 628 — 781 10, 257 — 37 8,536 + 1 331 8,637 + 6 400 9, 033 + 1 205 8, 798 + 1 287 10, 486 — 925 9, 964 + 3 158 11,355 -2,541 from total receipts; pre- o For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.75 per year; $2.25 foreign