Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1982
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97th Congress, 2d Session
Economic Indicators
OCTOBER 1982
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
*j*
Documents Department
St. Louis Public Library,
NOV 2 2 1982
/7,507
St. Louis, Mo. 63103
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1982
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
PAULA HAWKINS (Florida)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MARTIN S. FELDSTEIN, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member
WILLIAM POOLE, Member-Designate
[PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is for sale by the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to preliminary estimates for the third quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $46.2 billion or 6.2
percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.8 percent, annual rate, and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 5.4 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
(RATIO SCALE)
3,200
3,200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
3,000
3,000
2,800
2,800
2,600
2,600
GNP
IN CURRENT DOLLARS _
\
2,400
2,400
2,200 -
2,200
2,000 -
2,000
1,800
1,800
1,600
1,600
1,400
1,400
GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS
1975
1974
1976
1977
1979
1978
1980
1982
1981
COUNGL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross
private
domestic
investment
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2
166.4
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1,077.6
1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,633.1
2,937.7
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5
1980: HI
IV
2,643.7
2,739.4
1,682.0
1,745.8
1981: I
2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2
2,995.5
3,045.2
3,091.4
Period
1971
1972
1973
n
m
IV
1982: I
n
HP
Gross
national
product
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
13.8
4.0
-1.1
13.2
25.2
26.1
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
339.2
367.3
64.7
76.7
95.4
132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.0
341.3
234.9
253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
538.4
596.9
96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
70.2
73.1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.4
153.7
26.0
28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
384.1
410.3
39.0
23.5
337.2
346.7
298.2
323.2
538.5
559.8
193.3
207.0
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9
31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5
365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9
334.2
345.1
341.3
344.4
578.1
583.2
600.2
626.3
1,919.4
1,947.8
1,989.5
414.8
431.5
438.5
31.3
34.9
13.2
359.9
365.8
356.6
328.6
330.9
343.4
630.1
630.9
650.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Goveriinient purchsises of
goc ds and services
Exports aiid imports of goods and
services
4.1
.7
68.8
77.5
14.2
13.4
26.8
State and
local
56.5
65.8
75.2
138.7
151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
341.2
368.0
1,070.0
1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,643.1
2,917.3
130.5
138.1
62.8
68.9
345.2
352.8
2,664.8
2,757.1
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
143.1
150.5
154.4
166.9
73.9
67.7
75.7
83.6
361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7
2,852.7
2,877.2
2,949.1
2,989.9
249.7
244.3
257.5
166.2
176.2
183.7
83.5
68.2
73.9
380.4
386.6
392.6
3,031.1
3,061.4
3,091.8
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross
national
product
Period
Personal
consumption
expenditures
fh .
dential
fixed
Residential fixed
Final
6
business
inventories
Net
exports
Exports
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,474.0
1,502.6
696.8
737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
930.5
947.6
112.2
121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
166.1
172.0
53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.2
44.9
8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
5.0
9.0
1.6
.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.6
42.0
71.0
77.5
97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
159.2
1980: HI
IV
1,463.8
1,479.4
928.0
941.0
163.8
166.4
44.0
49.5
-8.5
-6.2
1981: I
1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1
951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4
169.7
170.1
173.9
174.2
49.6
47.3
42.9
39.9
1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.2
949.1
955.0
958.4
172.0
166.7
161.0
38.9
40.1
40.5
n
in
IV
1982: I
n
HP.
Governm ant purchases of goods
and services
Bitports of goo ds
and services
Grross private
dom estic investnlent
Imports
Total
Federal
State and
local
158.5
69.3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102.7
109.0
108.6
116.4
250.1
253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.6
287.1
103.7
101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1
106.5
110.4
146.4
151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
178.1
176.7
1,114.3
1,175.3
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.0
1,493.7
53.1
45.6
155.9
155.1
102.8
109.6
283.4
283.2
105.5
104.8
177.9
178.4
1,472.4
1,485.7
2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8
48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5
159.3
159.7
157.8
156.9
111.1
115.5
118.7
120.4
286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3
107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0
179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3
1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3
-15.4
-4.4
.7
36.9
35.7
30.7
151.7
154.4
150.2
114.7
118.7
119.5
289.2
285.3
290.0
114.4
110.3
115.3
174.9
175.0
174.7
1,486.1
1,482.7
1,480.6
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Period
Gross
national
product
Personal c >nsumption
expen iitures
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Gross priva ;e domestic
inves ment
Services
dential
fixed
Residential fixed
Exports a id imports
of goods a id services
Exports
Imports
Governmen t purchases
of goods a id services
Federal
State and
local
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
96.01
100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.64
195.51
96.5
100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.2
194.5
99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4
145.0
156.3
167.5
96.6
100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.4
202.7
95.6
100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
196.3
96.2
100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6
146.3
157.2
170.8
186.1
201.3
94.8
100.0
109.1
120.3
131.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.6
97.0
100.0
112.7
134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
213.1
231.8
93.3
100.0
116.7
164.6
179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.3
293.1
92.7
100.0
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.4
94.7
100.0
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
191.6
208.2
1980: HI
IV
180.60
185.16
181.2
185.5
158.0
161.1
190.5
195.1
180.9
185.4
187.9
190.8
221.8
223.4
216.3
223.5
290.1
294.9
183.3
197.5
194.0
197.8
1981: I
190.01
193.17
197.36
201.55
189.2
192.6
196.4
199.8
163.0
166.2
169.7
171.3
199.3
201.7
204.2
205.6
189.6
193.4
198.6
203.6
194.5
200.7
203.0
206.8
229.0
231.7
235.8
239.2
229.3
230.9
232.6
234.5
300.7
298.7
287.7
286.1
201.2
204.0
207.8
216.0
201.7
206.3
210.7
214.3
203.68
205.98
208.71
202.2
204.0
207.6
173.0
174.0
175.8
206.8
207.1
210.1
207.4
210.6
215.1
207.6
211.3
212.2
240.5
238.6
240.6
237.3
236.8
237.4
286.4
278.8
287.4
218.3
221.6
223.3
217.5
220.9
224.7
n
in
IV
1982: I
n
IIP
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gro ss national pr >duct
Period
Current
dollars
Constant
(1972)
dollars
5.2
8.6
10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
8.9
11.6
11.4
15.3
19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0
-1.0
6.8
6.2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: m
IV
1981: I
n
m
IV
1982: I
n
np
-0.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-.4
1.9
1.6
4.3
7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3
-5.1
2.1
.8
Implicit
price
deflator
Personal consumption e spenditures
Chain price
index
5.4
5.0
4.2
5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.3
9.4
9.6
10.5
10.9
6.8
9.0
8.8
4.3
4.6
5.4
Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
6.9
8.1
9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.6
10.6
15.6
16.1
13.0
4.4
11.3
3.4
7.6
6.1
8.8
5.2
4.8
4.0
6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.9
9.6
9.4
11.2
10.0
8.4
8.9
8.5
4.8
4.1
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.1
6.0
9.1
9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
9.0
9.4
9.7
11.0
9.3
8.2
9.2
8.4
5.0
4.6
6.1
Implicit
price
deflator
Constant
(1972)
dollars
Current
dollars
2.2
3.7
5.8
4.2
-.7
2.2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.3
1.8
Chain price
index
4.6
4.3
3.7
5.7
4.6
4.3
3.6
6.1
4.5
4.2
3.5
6.1
10.1
10.4
10.4
7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0
7.7
7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7
10.3
8.6
5.4
5.7
9.6
9.8
4.4
2.9
3.3
8.3
7.3
8.2
7.0
2.5
2.5
1.4
5.0
3.5
7.3
-2.7
Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3
10.7
9.1
9.8
10.0
10.3
7.4
8.0
7.2
5.2
3.6
7.0
11.2
9.3
9.8
10.1
10.9
7.7
7.6
7.1
4.8
3.2
7.1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS- -OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cc st and profit per unit of output (dollars)>
Gross c omestic
product of ilonfinancial
corporate business
(billions o f dollars)
Period
Current
dollars
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: IH
IV
1981: I
n
m
rv
1982: I
n
563.7
609.9
678.0
759.4
818.9
890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,537.7
1,732.3
1,543.6
1,606.5
1,683.3
1,715.0
1,763.6
1,767.2
1,756.6
1,771.0
1972
dollars
599.6
626.8
678.0
731.9
708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3
876.1
860.3
881.3
852.5
867.4
883.0
884.2
887.5
870.4
858.8
857.9
Total
cost and
profit 2
0.940
.973
1.000
1.038
1.156
1.282
1.343
1.418
1.508
1.617
1.787
1.966
1.811
1,852
1.906
1.940
1.987
2.030
2.045
2.064
Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
0.087
.091
.092
.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.200
.222
.206
.208
.211
.218
.224
.236
.242
.247
Indirect
business
taxes 3
0.106
.113
.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.173
.202
.178
.186
.196
.202
.203
.208
.205
.211
1
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars.
3
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
Compensation of
employees
0.631
.641
.659
.692
.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
1.094
1.211
1.305
1.224
1.245
1.267
1.289
1.315
1.349
1.376
1.388
4
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation ind capital C( nsumption
adjustments
Net
interest
Total
0.028
.029
.028
.031
.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.061
.071
.061
.066
.062
.069
.074
.078
.082
.085
0.088
.099
.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.143
.165
.143
.147
.170
.161
.171
.159
.140
.134
Profits
tax
liability
Profits
0.045
.047
0.043
.052
.049
.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.075
.072
.075
.078
.081
.069
.074
.063
.045
.043
.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.068
.093
.068
.069
.089
.091
.097
.096
.095
.091
Output
of all
employees (1972
dollars)
7.126
7.466
7.688
7.890
7.621
7.880
8.131
8.315
8.396
8.411
8.385
8.536
8.411
8.453
8.551
8.543
8.550
8.500
8.510
8.558
Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)
4.498
4.788
5.067
5.457
5.989
6.596
7.138
7.716
8.377
9.198
10.153
11.139
10.292
10.521
10.833
11.015
11.243
11.470
11.709
11.891
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
National
income
Compensation of
employees 1
Proprietors' ncome with
inventory vs luation and
capital coiisumption
adjust ments
Nonfarm
Farm
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
871,5
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,117.1
2,352.5
652.2
718.0
801.3
877.5
931.4
1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,598.6
1,767.6
15.C
18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
1980: m
IV
2,122.3
2,199.2
1981: I
n
m
IV
1982:
I
n
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustm€ nt and withou t capital
consiunption adjust tnent
Profits
before tax
Total
82.0
94.0
86.6
100.6
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5
33.8
34.2
177.8
181.2
101.8
101.2
100.4
99.5
34.4
34.0
33.6
33.6
98.6
99.9
101.4
33.9
34.2
34.6
20.2
21.0
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0
1,604.9
1,662.8
20.3
19.2
95.1
98.8
2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5
1,718.0
1,750.0
1,789.1
1,813.4
21.6
22.5
27.1
24.6
2,396.9
2,425.2
1,830.8
1,850.7
1,867.8
17,8
17.4
19.0
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
Capital
consump-
Total
83.2
96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
181.6
190.6
54.4
58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7
m "
1
Corporate p refits with inv< ntory valuatio n and capital consumption
adjustments
Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Inventory
valuation
Net
interest
adjustment
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1
-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-43.0
-24.6
-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-17.8
-16.8
46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
187.7
235.7
197.0
200.4
238.1
245.9
-41.1
-45.5
-19.3
-19.2
190.4
203.0
200.3
185.1
193.1
183.9
217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4
253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5
-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1
-17.3
-17.5
-17.1
155
217.6
231.6
244.0
249.5
157.1
155.4
167.2
162.2
171.6
171.7
-4.4
-9.4
-11.4
-10.1
-6.9
258.7
267.5
270.8
1.3
2.7
2.7
4.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondura ale goods
Durable goods
Period
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures
Total
durable
goods x
Motor
vehicles
and parts
Furniture
and
household
equipment
Total
nondurable
goods *
Food
Clothing
and shoes
Gasoline
and oil
Services
Retail sa es of new
passenj; er cars
(millions of units)
Domestics
Imports
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976....
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2
97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.3
234.6
45.4
52.4
57.1
50.4
55.8
72.6
84.8
95.7
96.6
89.7
98.6
37.2
41.7
47.1
50.6
53.5
59.1
65.7
72.8
81.8
86.3
93.4
278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
670.4
734.5
144.2
154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
343.7
375.3
50.6
55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.7
114.6
23.9
25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
87.0
96.8
296.2
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
618.0
693.7
782.5
874.1
8.7
9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
1980: HI
IV
1,682.0
1,745.8
212.7
224.7
88.1
93.7
86.0
90.4
673.7
700.5
346.4
358.0
104.8
108.9
87.0
92.8
795.6
820.6
6.4
6.7
2.3
2.5
1981:
1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5
236.9
230.4
241.2
229.6
102.1
94.2
104.0
93.9
93.1
93.3
93.8
93.3
720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5
368.8
372.1
378.0
382.3
112.3
114.0
115.9
116.0
95.2
96.7
97.7
97.5
842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3
7.2
5.7
6.8
5.2
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
1,919.4
1,947.8
1,989.5
237.9
240.7
240.6
103.2
103.3
104.3
91.0
93.2
92.7
749.1
755.0
770.8
387.9
395.0
402.3
117.5
118.4
119.6
95.3
91.3
95.1
932.4
952.1
978.1
5.8
5.5
5.5
2.2
2.0
2.2
I
n
m
IV
1982:
1
I
n
m".
Total includes other items not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $7.7 billion (annual rate) in September, following a rise of $5.4
salaries fell $0.4 billion in September and $0.1 billion in August.
billion in August. Wages and
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
120
120
1974
1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Proprietor ' income 3
Total
Period
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
1982:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug"
Sept"
personal
income
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8
2,478.6
2,487.2
2,499.0
2,497.6
2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6
2,535.5
2,556.2
2,566.3
2,591.6
2,597.1
2,604.7
Farm
765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237.6
1,356.1
1,493.9
1,522.1
1,528.9
1,534.2
1,530.5
1,535.7
1,546.6
1,542.6
1,546.6
1,560.4
1,562.9
1,569.5
1,569.5
1,569.1
55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
127.2
140.4
143.5
144.7
145.8
146.9
148.0
149.1
150.2
151.3
152.5
153.6
154.6
155.6
156.6
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0
27.2
26.3
24.7
22.8
19.9
17.3
16.3
16.9
17.3
18.0
18.4
19.0
19.5
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insuranee and (he excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements,
* Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation find capital consumption adjustments.
Nonfarm
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7
100.3
99.0
100.1
99.5
98.6
98.4
98.8
99.3
100.3
100.2
100.8
101.3
102.1
Rental
income of
persons 4
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9
33.9
33.6
33.6
33.6
33.7 '
33.9
34.0
34.1
34.2
34.3
34.5
34.6
34.7
Personal
dividend
income
Personal
interest
income
29.1
29.9
36.5
112.4
123.2
132.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
55.9
62.5
64.7
65.0
65.2
65.4
65.6
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.6
67.3
67.7
152.8
179.4
218.7
263.4
329.0
346.9
349.7
351.1
352.1
355.5
359.8
363.8
368.0
372.0
376.0
379.9
382.5
384.7
Transfer
payments 5
141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223.8
250.3
297.2
336.3
346.5
347.1
351.5
353.6
352.4
353.8
357.5
363.9
364.8
366.9
379.7
379.8
382.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance
47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.9
106.3
107.0
107.2
106.8
110.3
110.9
110.6
110.8
111.6
111.7
112.4
112.4
112.3
Nonfarm
personal
income 6
1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,117.3
2,364.1
2,422.7
2,431.8
2,444.6
2,444.6
2,448.6
2,465.5
2,470.8
2,486.8
2,506.9
2,516.0
2,541.9
2,547.7
2,555.8
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose slightly in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,400 p
2,400
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Period
Personal
income
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Less:
Personal
outlays l
Equals:
Personal
saving
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
Billions of dol ars
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8
150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.3
386.7
914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,824.1
2,029.1
Per capit i personal
consulnption
expen [itures
Pert apita
disposable personal
incc me
Current
dollars
1972
dollars
79.0
85.1
94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
106.2
130.2
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
8,012
8,827
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,472
4,538
Saving as
percent of
disposable
persona!
income
Population
(thousands) 2
Per cent
Do lars
835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,717.9
1,898.9
Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
3,831
4,152
4,521
5.7
8,018
3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,087
4,123
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
-.9
1.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
5.8
6.4
211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,654
229,872
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,323
- J Y
8.6
8.5
Seas mally adju sted annual rates
1980: III
IV
2,185.3
2,260.0
339.7
1981: I
II
Ill
IV
2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6
371.2
1982: I
II
Ill "....
2,510.5
2,552.7
2,597.8
1
357.1
384.2
398.1
393.2
393.4
401.2
395.5
Includes personal consumption expenditures, intei
al transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Animal data are
for the period.
1,845.5
1,902.9
1,732.5
1,797.6
113.1
105.3
8,095
8,325
4,466
4,487
7,378
7,638
4,071
4,117
3.9
1.9
6.1
5.5
227,978
228,579
1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4
1,852.8
1,874.5
1,925.7
1,942.7
105.9
122.0
134.4
158.6
8,551
4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559
7,858
7,926
8,120
8,167
4,152
4,115
4,134
4,088
2.9
-.3
3.7
2
5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5
229,053
229,539
230,145
230,751
2,117.1
2,151.5
2,202.3
1,977.9
2,007.2
2,049.2
139.1
144.3
153.0
9,155
4,527
4,552
4,566
8,300
8,406
8,564
4,104
4,121
4,125
-2.8
2.2
1.2
6.6
6.7
6.9
231,246
231,724
232,318
less, and person-
8,698
8,951
9,107
9,285
9,480
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bui
FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1981, gross and net farm income each declined $2.7 billion (annual rate) from their third
quarter levels. Data are not yet available for 1982.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
I 200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
100
100
GROSS FARM INCOME
80
80
60
60
40
40
NET FARM INCOME
V.,,
*»•».
20
20
V
_J
10
1973
1974
1978
1977
1976
1979
1980
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
110
1981
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
In come of farm ope rators from farmi V
Cjross farm incom B
Net farni income
Cas b marketing receipts
Total '
Total
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980:
I
n
m
IV
1981: I
n
m
IV
1982: I
n
Livestock and
products
Production
expenses
Current
dollars
1967 dollars 3
98.0
101.0
101.9
108.6
127.3
151.3
150.6
166.8
92.4
88.9
95.4
96.2
112.5
131.7
139.5
143.5
41.3
43.1
46.3
47.6
58.8
68.6
67.8
68.5
5-1.1
45.8
49.0
48.6
53.7
63.1
71.7
75.0
-1.6
3.4
-2.4
1.0
1.1
5.6
4.3
5.5
72.0
75.8
83.3
90.2
100.6
119.0
130.5
141.6
26.0
25.2
18.7
18.4
26.7
32.4
20.1
25.1
17.6
15.6
11.0
10.2
13.6
14.9
8.2
9.2
148.6
145.2
153.2
155.4
135.3
134.3
143.6
144.8
66.7
64.4
69.3
70.8
68.6
69.9
74.3
74.0
-1.4
-4.2
-6.0
5.6
125.7
128.7
132.0
135.4
22.9
16.5
21.2
20.0
9.5
6.8
8.5
7.8
161.8
164.7
171.5
168.8
142.5
142.3
146.7
142.5
67.9
69.4
71.0
65.7
74.6
72.9
75.7
76.8
2.5
5.3
139.0
141.0
143.2
143.2
22.8
23.7
28.3
25.6
8.6
8.8
10.2
9.1
142.0
144.0
69.0
71.0
73.0
73.0
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
3
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Crops
Value of
inventory
changes 2
3
7.2
7.0
Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the second quarter of 1982, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax were about unchanged
from their first quarter level while after-tax profits rose $1.3 billion (annual rate).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
320
280 -
280
120
80
80
40
40
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Pr afits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuati on adjustmen t '
Profits after ta X
Dornestic indust ies
Period
Nonfinancial
Total
2
Total
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: III
IV
1981: I
II
Ill
IV
1982: I
II
III?
1
2
82.0
Financial
Total 3
Tax
liability
37.5
41.6
49.0
Whole
sale and
retail
trade
26.1
34.5
49.6
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.7
81.2
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.1
65.1
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
99.7
85.8
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
— 14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-43.0
— 24.6
238.1
245.9
82.2
87.8
155.9
158.1
58.7
59.6
97.3
98.5
-41.1
-45.5
33.0
32.1
33.0
35.7
253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5
91.5
79.2
82.4
71.6
161.6
146.2
150.8
144.9
61.5
64.0
66.8
68.1
100.1
82.2
84.0
76.9
-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1
31.9
26.8
171.6
171.7
56.7
55.3
115.0
116.3
68.8
69.3
70.5
46.1
47.0
-4.4
-9.4
-11.4
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
140.0
162.0
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
74.5
86.3
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
24.6
33.4
86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1
27.2'
29.4
140.3
146.1
70.0
78.1
24.4
27.3
193.8
181.7
189.3
173.7
26.8
22.7
20.8
20.4
167.0
159.0
168.5 '
153.3
90.3
88.9
92.2
73.7
150.3
144.1
20.0
22.2
130.4
121.9
57.7
56.6
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
169.1
184.6
23.1
31.0
30.3
29.2
22.7
197.0
200.4
167.5
175.5
217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4
167.2
162.2
60.8
70.0
76.0
65.4
95.8
Dividends
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
22.9
24.4
27.0
11.7
14.1
15.3
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
Total
Undistributed
profits
49.0
58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
157.8
150.9
34.1
40.7
74.9
85.3
92.0
80.4
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Manufacturing
Profits
before tax
ISA
3
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-4.6
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to preliminary estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment declined $10.6 billion (annual
rate) from its second quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $1.9 billion. There was a $0.5 billion
decrease in inventories following a $16.2 billion decrease in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
550
550
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
500
500
450
450
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT
400
400
350
350
300
300
NONRESIDENTIAL
-FIXED INVESTMENT-
250
250
200
200
RESIDENTIAL
-FIXED INVESTMENT-
150
150
100
100
^CHANGE IN BUSINESS_
INVENTORIES
50
50
»•"",„•••••'"*"•:••
0
0
^
J
-50
1979
1976
1974
1980
1981
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
L
-50
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross
Period
Total
Nonfarm
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
109.5
112.6
198.2
204.9
97.6
110.5
93.5
105.4
1.0
2.0
3.0
3.1
O1 O
17.7
-15.4
^12.3
330.0
341.3
353.0
360.2
119.6
127.0
132.7
139.6
210.4
214.3
220.2
220.6
113.6
109.5
101.2
95.5
109.1
104.7
95.6
89.4
1.3
1.6
2.4
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2
10.0
19.3
24.6
6.0
357.0
352.2
341.6
141.4
143.6
140.5
215.6
208.6
201.0
93.4
95.5
97.4
87.9
89.6
91.4
2.4
2.8
2.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
35.6
-16.2
-.5
36.0
-15.0
-.5
I
455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9
414.8
431.5
438.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Farm
structures
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.1
307.8
317.5
I
Nonfarm
structures
100.7
102.3
115.3
140.8
170.2
191.9
198.6
216.4
384.1
410.3
n
mp
Total
Change iii business
mven ;ones
Producers'
durable
48.9
61.5
65.6
54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.3
99.7
HI
IV
n
m
Producers'
durable
50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
103.2
104.9
40.5
44.1
51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.5
129.7
IV
1982:
Structures
107.9
121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1
205.2
248.9
290.2
309.2
346.1
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Total
166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5
1971
1972
1973
1980:
domestic
investment
Residential fix ed investment
Nonresic ential fixed in vestment
67.4
76.9
92.3
0.7
.7
.7
1.3
1.5
7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
10.0
20.5
6.4
9.6
15.2
16.0
10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
-^-5.7
15.0
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM
BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department July-August survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 0.7 percent above 1981. Spending in 1981 was 8.7 percent above
1980.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
400
300
-•- 200
40
40
30
30
1974
1977
1976
1975
1978
1980
1982
1981
J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 &ELOW.
COUNCSL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plan t and equipment
Period
Total
Plant
Equipment
...
Total
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982"
1981: I
n
m
IV
1982:
I
n4
ni
IV"
Durable
goods
Total
able
goods
Mining
Transportation
Public
utilities
Trade
and
services 1
Communication
and
other 2
ment
manufacturing 3
156.98
157.71
171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
323.66
64.29
65.21
71.20
80.31
92.70
105.73
117.55
133.46
92.69
92.50
100.25
117.77
138.54
164.73
178.08
188.04
53.21
54.92
59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
124.23
27.44
26.33
28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
59.50
25.76
28.59
31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
64.74
103.78
102.79
111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
199.43
4.62
6.10
7.44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13.51
16.86
16.48
8.23
8.68
8.89
9.40
10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
12.33
19.83
19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
40.90
47.79
46.23
49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
81.79
86.33
87.40
23.30
21.80
23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
36.99
41.06
42.33
61.24
56.51
59.38
77.40
88.16
112.98
123.32
135.19
312.24
316.73
328.25
327.83
128.57
131.05
136.40
136.67
183.67
185.68
191.85
191.17
124.50
125.49
130.11
126.91
61.24
63.10
62.58
60.78
63.27
62.40
67.53
66.14
187.74
191.24
198.13
200.92
16.20
16.80
17.55
16.81
11.74
11.70
11.61
13.12
36.05
37.84
39.55
39.74
83.43
85.88
87.55
88.33
40.32
39.02
41.89
42.92
35.41
32.90
33.33
33.68
327.72
323.22
320.24
324.47
139.49
137.95
188.23
185.28
128.32
123.77
123.09
122.89
60.84
59.03
59.98
58.80
67.48
64.74
63.10
64.09
199.40
199.46
197.15
201.57
17.60
16.56
15.66
16.20
11.99
12,32
11.38
13.56
40.12
41.40
40.54
41.65
87.80
88.85
86.71
86.07
41.89
40.33
42.85
44.09
27.73
29.03
'Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social service? and membership organizations; and forestry,
fisheries, and agricultural services.
10
Starts of
plant and
Nonmanu.factoring
M anufacturin g
3
Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period,
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1982, corrected
for biases.
,,
„
,„
„
,„
. , , oource: Department ot Commerce, Joureau of ticonomic Analysis.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted employment fell 119,000 in September and unemployment rose 455,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS'
1982
1974
* 5 6 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
Unemp oyment
Civilian e mployment
Period
Nonmstitutional
population
158,294
161,166
164,027
166,951
169,848
172,272
1976
1977
1978*
1979
1980
1981
Civilian
employment
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397
ployment
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
Total labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)
labor force
98,302
101,142
104,368
107,050
109,042
110,812
96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670
15 weeks
an over
Labor
force
participation rate2
(percent)
Nonagr cultural
Total
88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397
Agriculura
3,331
3,283
3,387
3,347
3,364
3,368
Total
Part-time
for
economic
reasons *
85,421
88,734
92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030
Total
3,334
3,369
3,298
3,373
4,064
4,499
7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
2,366
1,942
1,414
1,241
1,871
2,285
62,1
62.8
63.6
64.1
64.2
64.3
Seas onally adjus ted
U nadjusted
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
172,758
172,966
173,155
173,330
100,389
101,028
100,502
99,562
7,884
8,216
8,676
9,013
110,659
111,170
111,430
111,348
108,494
109,012
109,272
109,184
100,258
100,343
100,172
99,613
3,358
3,378
3,372
3,209
96,900
96,965
96,800
96,404
4,656
5,009
5,026
5,288
8,236
8,669
9,100
9,571
2,248
2,292
2,364
2,372
64.1
64.3
64.4
64.2
1982:
173,495
173,657
173,843
174,020
174,201
174,364
174,544
174,707
174,889
97,831
97,946
98,471
98,858
99,957
100,683
101,490
101,177
99,851
10,183
10,378
10,290
9,957
9,957
10,886
11,036
10,710
10,695
111,038
111,333
111,521
111,824
112,841
112,364
112,702
112,840
113,178
108,879
109,165
109,346
109,648
110,666
110,191
110,522
110,644
110,980
99,581
99,590
99,492
99,340
100,117
99,764
99,732
99,839
99,720
3,411
3,373
3,349
3,309
3,488
3,357
3,460
3,435
3,368
96,170
96,217
96,144
96,032
96,629
96,406
96,272
96,404
96,352
5,071
5,563
5,717
5,834
5,763
5,444
5,492
5,648
6,600
9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427
10,790
10,805
11,260
2,399
2,724
2,954
3,015
3,286
3,673
3,580
3,631
3,870
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.8
64.4
64.6
64.6
64.7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
TotaI labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over.
'Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revision; in the houselold survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT
RATES
In September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent from 9.8 percent in August.
PERCENT' (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
25
1982
•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemploy ment rate (pe rcent of civi] an labor fore e in group)
B V sex and ag e
Period
Total
(all
civilian
workers)
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
By selected gro jps
By_race
Both
sexes
16-19
White
Black and
other
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men,
spouse
Women
who
maintain
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7.6
5.9
5.2
4.3
4.2
5.9
6.3
7.4
19.0
13.1
13.1
11.9
11.3
13.1
14.2
4.2
17.8
16.4
16.1
17.8
19.6
7.0
6.2
5.2
5.1
6.3
6.7
7.3
7.0
6.0
5.7
6.4
6.8
6.6
5.6
5.5
6.9
7.3
3.6
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
8.5
8.3
9.2
10.4
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.8
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.9
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.4
19.7
20.4
21.4
21.5
6.6
7.0
7.4
7.7
14.8
15.2
15.2
15.7
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.5
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.7
1982: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
8.5
8.8
9.0
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.8
9.8
10.1
7.5
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.6
7.2
7.6
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.1
8.4
8.2
8.3
21.7
22.3
21.9
23.0
23.1
22.3
24.1
24.0
23.7
7.5
7.7
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.7
8.6
9.0
15.1
15.9
16.6
16.9
17.2
17.1
17.3
17.5
18.2
8.2
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.3
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.8
5.3
5.3
5.5
6.0
6.1
6.5
6.6
6.7
7.3
jate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
12
10.1
Full-time
workers
Part-time
workers
7.3
6.6
5.6
5.3
6.9
10.1
Labor
foree
time lost
(percent) '
8.3
7.6
6.5
6.3
7.3
9.9
9.0
8.8
8.8
9.4
10.7
10.6
10.8
10.5
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.7
9.6
9.5
10.2
9.2
8.5
9.1
9.5
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.6
11.5
11.8
12.4
12.0
11.6
12.4
8.4
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.2
9.4
9.5
9.6
10.1
9.6
10.8
10.0
10.9
10.5
9.8
11.4
10.3
10.5
10.0
9.8
10.4
10.4
11.1
10.2
10.7
10.7
11.7
9.4
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7.9
8.5
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In September, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks fell
slightly, and the percentage out of work for 15 weeks and longer periods rose slightly.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
JOB LOSERS
-
40
50
40
30
-
-
REENTRANTS
30
|\
i *<*''~v N»
20
"~*\
20
JOB LEAVERS
-
nx*
•..-»i>
i_'-V.v' '
"•i.-"-,,..
I \
10
—
NEW ENTRANTS
1982
1978
* SEASONALLY
1979
1978
1980
1981
1982
ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
„
Period
ployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution of unemplo •ment bv
dura ion 1
Less
than 5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
vment bv
Percent distribution of unemplo
rea on l
Job
losers
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
Sta te
progr ams
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemplovment, all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2
Special
unempiovment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3
1kVeeklv ave rage, thousarids
10.7
14.0
45.3
41.7
42.9
51.7
51.6
13.0
14.1
14.3
11.7
11.2
28.1
29.9
29.4
25.2
25.4
13.6
14.3
13.3
11.4
11.9
2,655
2,359
2,434
3,350
3,048
375
346
388
488
460
3,308
2,645
2,592
3,837
3,410
13.7
13.4
13.5
12.6
13.2
13.0
12.5
12.6
52.8
52.4
53.6
56.1
11.0
11.2
10.0
24.6
25.0
25.5
23.5
11.7
11.5
10.9
10.7
2,961
3,159
3,428
3,583
482
522
541
567
2,680
2,753
3,228
3,935
13.0
15.1
16.3
14.7
15.6
17.1
16,7
16.7
16.1
12.8
13.4
13.7
14.7
15.8
17.3
16.7
16.8
17.5
56.7
54.3
57.4
57.4
56.9
59.6
57.4
58.1
61.1
22.7
24.0
22.9
23.0
23.5
22.4
23.5
22.3
20.8
11.5
11.6
10.7
10.5
11.1
10.3
11.6
12.2
11.4
3,546
3,484
3,736
4,022
4,032
4,140
3,938
4,101
4,420
562
517
594
579
595
555
516
611
670
4,681
4,723
4,892
4,760
4,387
4,328
4,495
4,398
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273
41.8
1978
1979
1980
1981
46.2
48.1
43.1
41.7
30.5
31.0
31.7
32.3
30.7
13.1
12.4
11.5
13.8
13.6
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
8,236
8,669
9,100
9,571
42.2
42.7
42.3
42.8
30.9
30.9
31.7
32.0
9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427
10,790
10,805
11,260
41.3
39.6
38.8
38.5
37.0
33.2
37.2
36.1
35.1
32.9
31.9
31.2
32.1
31.7
32.4
29.5
30.4
31.3
1977
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
14.7
10.4
8.7
Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
2
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Kico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen
(UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended
benefit programs, Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (speciai unemployment assistance).
9.7
9.1
10.2
9.0
9.1
8.4
7.7
7.5
7.4
6.6
3
572
FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
In September, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell 230,000 from its August
level.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS Of PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
22
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
90
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
SERVICES
-^>-=
80
,...»"""
70
GOVERNMENT
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
22
MANUFACTURING
\
50
20
40
CONSTRUCTION
_GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
30
^i
20
1979
1978
1980
1981
1978
1982
1979
1980
1981
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;3 seasonally adjusted]
Period
Total
nonagricultural
employment
Service-p reducing ind istries
Goods- jrodueing im ustries
M anufacturing
Total 2
Construction
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Transportation and
public
utilities
Wholesale and
retail
trade
Gover nment
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Services
Federal
State
and
local
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
91,105
24,346
25,585
26,461
25,658
25,481
3,851
4,229
4,463
4,346
4,176
19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
20,173
11,597
12,274
12,760
12,187
12,117
8,086
8,231
8,280
8,098
8,056
58,125
61,113
63,363
64,748
65,625
4,713
4,923
5,136
5,146
5,157
18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
20,551
4,467
4,724
4,975
5,160
5,301
15,303
16,252
17,112
17,890
18,592
2,727
2,753
2,773
2,866
2,772
12,399
12,919
13,174
13,375
13,253
1981: Sept
Oct
NOT
Dec
91,363
91,224
90,996
90,642
25,583
25,393
25,176
24,908
4,124
4,101
4,071
4,026
20,267
20,097
19,903
19,676
12,184
12,059
11,901
11,724
8,083
8,038
8,002
7,952
65,780
65,831
65,820
65,734
5,181
5,162
5,150
5,128
20,660
20,654
20,623
20,524
5,328
5,325
5,324
5,331
18,707
18,773
18,815
18,834
2,764
2,757
2,749
2,756
13,140
13,160
13,159
13,161
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"....
Sept"....
90,460
90,459
90,304
90,083
90,166
89,839
89,535
89,268
89,038
24,684
24,631
24,450
24,289
24,255
23,994
23,840
23,639
23,546
3,966
3,974
3,934
3,938
3,988
3,940
3,927
3,895
3,890
19,517
19,454
19,319
19,169
19,115
18,930
18,813
18,662
18,576
11,622
11,575
11,490
11,375
11,332
11,203
11,133
10,984
10,904
7,895
7,879
7,829
7,794
7,783
7,727
7,680
7,678
7,672
65,776
65,828
65,854
65,794
65,911
65,845
65,695
65,629
65,492
5,125
5,115
5,100
5,094
5,101
5,078
5,044
5,024
5,023
20,630
20,670
20,655
20,584
20,652
20,595
20,615
20,544
20,488
5,326
5,326
5,336
5,335
5,342
5,352
5,359
5,361
5,367
18,831
18,867
18,904
18,929
18,963
18,988
19,042
19,042
19,054
2,741
2,737
2,736
2,730
2,728
2,739
2,737
2,740
2,734
13,123
13,113
13,123
13,122
13,125
13,093
12,898
12,918
12,826
1
Includes all Ml- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieukural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as emploved when they are not at work because of industrial dis-
14
putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
5
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average g "oss hourlv
earn ings
Vverage weekly
hours
Period
Manufa during
Total
private
nonagricultural J
Overtime
Total
Ind ex,
1977 -100
Current
dollars
39.8
$4.09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
100.0
108.1
116.8
127.3
138.9
39.4
39.5
39.3
39.1
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.4
7.37
7.40
7.45
7.46
8.14
8.16
8.20
8.20
37.6
39.4
39.0
39.0
39.1
39.2
39.2
39.0
38.6
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
7.52
7.53
7.54
7.59
7.65
7.67
7.71
7.73
7.72
8.38
8.34
8.37
8.44
8.48
8.52
8.56
8.57
8.56
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
1982:
34.4
35.0
34.9
34.9
35.0
34.9
34.9
34.8
34.8
a year
Percent chang e 4from
earli jr S
Current
dollars
1977
dollars 3
$3.94
4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"
Sept".
Manufacturing
3.8
3.3
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
36.9
36.5
36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
Total
private
nonagricu!tural '
Adjustt d hourlv earnin gs index — total private
nonagnc ultural 2
74.1
80.0
86.7
92.9
6.2
8.0
8.4
7.2
1977 dollars
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
7.6
8.1
8.0
9.0
9.1
-0.1
-2.8
— .7
1.4
1.0
.5
-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
141.4
142.0
143.0
143.5
92.1
92.1
92.3
92.3
9.3
8.6
8.4
8.2
-1.4
-1.4
-.9
— .4
144.9
145.0
145.4
146.3
147.7
148.1
148.9
149.8
149.9
92.9
92.8
93.3
93.7
93.7
93.1
93.0
93.2
93.1
8.3
7.5
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.1
7.1
6.6
6.0
.1
.1
.6
.8
.8
.2
.8
.8
1.1
101.1
98.3
97.6
99.0
100.0
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent c lange from
a year earlier,
total private n onagricultural 5
Avera ge gross weekly e<irmngs
Period
Total private
nonagnc ultural
Current dollars
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Manufacturing
]
1977 dollars 3
Construction
Wholesale and
retail trade
Current dollars
$145.39
154.76
163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
$198.35
190.12
184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
$166.46
176.80
190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
$235.89
249.25
266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
398.52
$111.76
119.02
126.45
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
190.95
6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
1981:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
257.95
259.74
261.50
261.10
168.05
168.44
168.82
167.91
320.72
322.32
322.26
320.62
386.54
407.01
41&.64
415.14
193.56
192.96
194.53
194.56
8.4
7.9
7.3
6.1
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug*
Sept"
258.69
263.55
263.15
264.89
267.75
267.68
269.08
269.00
268.66
165.93
168.62
168.90
169.69
169.89
168.14
167.97
167.39
166.87
315.09
328.60
326.43
329.16
331.57
333.98
335.55
334.23
330.42
405.50
420.71
420.29
421.77
432.75
423.57
430.03
428.83
422.24
193.05
195.20
195.23
195.89
198.40
198.42
198.74
199.69
199.98
3.7
6.2
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.2
4.0
1977 dollars
Current dollars
4
5
-0.0
— 4.1
-3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
-3.1
-5.8
-1.5
-2.2
-2.0
-1.8
24
-4.1
-1.1
-1.6
-1.7
-1.2
-1.9
-1.4
-1.5
-.9
Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.
Koun-c: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Outf ut '
Period
Business
sector
Output per hour of all
pers ons
Hours of all
pers >ns 2
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
per
Compens ation
hou r 3
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit labor
CO st
Implic t price
defla tor 4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1977 = 100; quarterly < ata seasona lly adjustec
1968
1969
76.8
79.0
76.6
78.8
90.1
92.5
88.2
91.1
85.3
85.5
86.8
86.5
50.7
54.2
51.5
54.8
59.4
63.4
59.3
63.4
60.2
63.2
60.4
63.3
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
78.4
80.7
86.1
91.8
89.9
78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8
91.0
90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3
89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7
86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5
86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9
58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0
58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5
67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4
67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5
66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4
66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8
87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0
93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.2
92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
108.7
94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.6
94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.3
85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
119.1
86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.8
90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5
90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.6
90.5
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2
90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5
1980
1981
106.2
108.9
106.3
108.6
107.4
108.2
108.0
108.7
98.9
100.7
98.5
99.9
131.4
144.1
130.9
143.6
132.9
143.1
133.0
143.8
128.3
140.4
128.3
140.8
III
IV
105.3
107.0
105.3
107.3
106.5
107.7
107.0
108.2
98.9
99.3
98.4
99.2
133.1
136.1
132.6
135.7
134.7
137.0
134.7
136.8
129.9
132.8
129.9
132.7
I
109.1
109.1
109.6
107.8
109.2
109.0
109.1
107.1
108.3
108.3
108.5
107.5
108.8
109.0
109.1
108.1
100.7
100.7
101.0
100.2
100.4
100.0
100.0
99.1
140.0
142.5
145.6
148.2
139.5
142.0
145.1
147.7
139.0
141.5
144.2
147.9
139.0
141.9
145.1
149.0
136.5
138.8
141.9
144.6
136.5
138.9
142.3
145.5
106.3
106.4
106.8
106.0
106.1
106.3
106.3
106.1
105.4
106.8
106.7
106.0
100.0
100.3
101.3
99.2
99.4
100.3
150.9
153.4
155.7
150.4
152.7
155.1
150.9
152.9
153.7
151.6
153.5
154.6
146.0
147.5
149.3
146.6
148.1
150.1
1980:
1981:
n
m
IV
1982:
I
II
Til"
Percent ch ange; quan erly data a seasonally adjusted aimual rates
1968
1969
5.1
2.9
5.3
2.9
1.7
2.6
2.0
3.2
3.3
.2
3.3
g
7.8
7.0
7.5
6.5
4.4
6.7
4.1
6.8
4.0
4.9
4.0
4.7
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
g
3.0
6.6
6.6
-2.0
-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.8
2.1
-1.6
-.5
3.0
3.9
.4
-1.3
-.4
3.1
4.3
.5
.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4
.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
2.5
7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4
7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4
6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12.1
6.6
3.2
2.9
5.0
12.2
4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5
4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3
-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2
-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.2
-4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.5
2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
g
2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.3
9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.7
9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.3
7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7
7.5
4.7
5.2
8.0
10.7
9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0
10.3
5.0
5.7
7.1
8.8
1980
1981
-1.5
2.5
-1.5
2.2
-.7
.7
-.7
.7
7
1.8
-.9
1.4
10.4
9.6
10.2
9.7
11.2
7.7
11.2
8.1
9.4
9.5
10.2
9.7
2.1
6.8
2.7
7.8
-.5
4.7
-.7
4.6
2.6
2.0
3.4
3.1
10.1
9.4
10.4
9.8
7.3
7.2
6.8
6.5
10.0
9.3
8.6
8.9
7.9
-.1
1.9
-6.4
7.2
-.8
.3
-7.1
2.1
— .1
.8
-3.6
2.2
.5
.6
-3.7
5.6
.0
1.1
-2.9
4.9
-1.3
-.3
-3.5
11.7
7.5
9.0
7.4
11.8
7.1
9.0
7.3
5.7
7.5
7.8
10.6
6.6
8.6
9.3
11.2
11.6
6.6
9.3
8.0
12.1
7.1
10.2
9.2
-5.5
.6
1.4
-4.2
.6
.7
-4.5
-.8
2.5
-4.7
-.1
-2.8
-1.0
1.4
4.0
.6
.8
3.6
7.3
6.9
6.2
7.7
6.1
6.6
8.4
5.5
2.1
7.1
5.2
2.9
3.8
4.3
5.0
3.3
4.0
5.5
1980:
1981:
HI
IV
I
n
m
IV
1982: I
n
np
'Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and
unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
* Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
z
16
4
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE. — Percent changes are from preceding period and are
ar based on original data; they therefore
may
ay differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown
sho
here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial
production
fell
0.6
percent
in
September
following
a
0.5
percent
decline
in
August.
The index
for
September was 9.4 percent below its year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100*
180 •
(RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1967=100*
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(RATIO SCALE)
UTILITIES AND MINI NG PRODU CTION
^/x^
160
•%-
^""^r"H
\ A^
160
UTILITIES
/ r't\J/
140
*** v* _
*
"*1 \\
\
\
\
*" "" "v*^^*
V
f
/*
MINING
120
1978
1980
1979
1981
1982
100
1 11 11111111
1978
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
1 1 Ml
1
19>9
1 1 ,1 1 1
!
1981
1980
, i i i i 1 i i i ii
1982
PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)
100
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
90
140
120
70
1978
1982
1982
1978
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE' BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Seasonally adjusted]
To tal
Index,
1967 = 100
1967 proportion
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"
Sept"
1
2
3
Mining
Total
87.95
-8.9
10.8
5.9
5.7
4.4
-3.6
2.7
5,0
1,7
-1.9
-4.7
7.1
-5.9
-6.8
-7.7
-8.8
-9.3
-9.8
-10.1
-9.4
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
151.1
148.0
145.0
142.0
138.5
140.9
140.1
138.7
137.9
137.7
138.2
137.7
136.9
Durable
>
Iilanufacturin|
Utilities
Nondurable
51.98
109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
140.9
137.8
134.4
131.3
127.1
129.3
128.2
126.7
126.1
125.5
125.9
124.3
122.8
Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data.
utilizati an rate, perc ait
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
100.00
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
151.6
149.1
146.3
143.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
138.8
138.1
137.3
Cap icitv
Industry proc uction indexes , 1967=100
indu. trial
produ ction
35. 97
126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
165.9
162.8
160.3
157.4
155.1
157.8
157.3
156.1
155.0
155.3
155.9
156.9
157.4
6.36
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
145.0
145.3
143.3
142.6
144.5
142.4
138.1
134.1
128.9
123.5
120.3
118.2
115.7
5.69
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
167.8
168.1
168.9
168.2
171.8
170.4
170.0
171.0
170.9
169.4
167.6
168.4
168.9
Materials
(Federal
Reserve
series)
73.4
81.1
82.7
85.6
87.4
80.0
79.9
80.0
77.7
75.5
72.4
71.4
72.9
71.8
70.5
69.4
68.8
68.4
68.3
67.6
Federal
Reserve
series
Commerce
series 2
Wharton
series 3
72.9
77
79.5
81.9
84.4
85.7
79.1
78.5
78.3
76.6
74.8
73.1
71.1
72.2
71.6
70.8
70.2
70.0
70.1
69.6
69.1
81
83
84
83
78
76
76
78.8
84.8
87.2
89.9
91.4
85.5
85.2
86.2
72
81.6
72
71
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Dq artment of Commerce (Burt
of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts
Final Products
Period
Intermedia e products
Durable
goods
Total
Materials
Equif ment
C onsumer good s
Total
Nondurable
goods
Total
Total
Business
Construction
supplies
Supplementary
group:
Energy
total
1967 proportion
47.82
37.68
7.89
19.79
20.14
12.63
12.89
6.42
39.39
12.23
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"
Sept".
115.7
124.4
125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5
124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9
133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5
120.6
125.6
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9
103.8
114.5
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8
118.0
134.2
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1
126.5
137.2
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4
128.4
139.8
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9
122.3
133.9
132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6
125.2
128.3
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4
150.0
148.9
147.2
146.3
147.8
146.5
144.0
142.0
140.4
136.3
129.7
123.2
150.8
150.5
149.7
149.5
152.9
152.1
151.5
152.1
182.7
180.5
179.0
179.0
154.6
151.4
148.7
145.9
139.7
135.2
130.1
127.0
152.5
148.5
144.6
139.0
136.8
136.9
137.2
136.7
142.8
144.1
143.3
142.6
142.2
142.1
142.4
140.8
140.3
139.6
141.8
141.5
142.1
143.6
144.8
145.9
144.4
144.4
120.1
125.9
128.1
130.7
132.6
134.6
137.2
132.8
132.2
147.4
148.1
146.8
146.6
147.9
148.8
149.4
149.1
149.2
147.2
147.3
145.9
143.4
140.4
138.4
137.6
135.8
134.6
172.2
171.6
169.0
164.9
159.9
156.7
154.6
151.6
149.2
143.4
146.3
145.2
143.7
142.6
141.9
142.9
143.6
143.4
124.2
127.5
125.6
123.6
122.2
123.1
124.2
125.0
125.2
137.2
140.4
138.5
136.2
134.3
133.5
132.9
132.9
131.8
139.5
138.9
137.6
136.7
136.5
136.2
136.4
135.5
134.5
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Durable m mufaetures
Period
Total
1967 proportion
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug".
Sept"
6.57
112.1
126.7
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
108.6
102.3
96.6
89.6
89.7
88.5
83.0
76.4
75.2
72.8
72.9
72.2
71.1
Iron and
steel
Nonelectrical
machinery
Electrical
machinery
Total
Motor
vehicles
and parts
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals and
products
Foods
4.21
5.93
9.15
8.05
9.27
4.50
1.64
3.31
4.72
7.74
8.75
107.1
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
99.2
92.2
87.2
79.2
79.6
78.5
73.0
65.1
62.4
58.0
58.1
57.2
112.1
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
116.0
133.7
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
122.2
143.1
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
135.8
148.8
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
109.4
117.3
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4
112.7
118.2
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
173.9
169.7
167.9
167.4
180.0
179.6
175.7
170.7
114.2
110.6
106.1
103.7
120.4
113.8
105.5
100.4
122.5
117.8
113.8
114.1
145.9
145.6
143.4
145.3
120.7
121.4
121.1
119.1
115.8
115.0
115.6
114.0
112.0
160.9
160.0
157.3
153.7
150.0
147.4
147.2
145.0
142.3
168.2
172.9
172.6
172.2
170.9
170.8
170.3
169.8
168.0
96.6
102.0
104.4
105.9
110.0
111.6
112.7
107.7
105.3
90.4
98.6
105.6
110.7
119.8
124.0
127.2
117.7
114.8
143.6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
216.3
208.8
204.6
199.8
196.7
201.3
200.3
198.6
193.6
193.2
194.0
195.9
116.8
120.9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1
136.8
133.8
130.2
126.1
120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
113.2
109.6
104.7
104.8
99.2
104.9
103.5
106.2
110.6
112.2
116.9
115.9
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Fabricated metal
products
I endurable manufacture s
Transp artation
equip ment
Primary metals
145.6
146.4
145.9
144.2
143.8
142.6
144.3
145.6
146.0
150.7
151.4
153.0
152.8
151.1
151.7
150.8
149.7
150.5
151.0
151.6
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constructio n contracts
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Eesi iential
r
Total
and industrial
New housing
Total '
Other
Federal,
State, and
local
Total value
index
(1977=100)
2
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
I illions of dollars
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
135.9
151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
238.2
95.1
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
185.2
46.5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3
86.6
20.8
19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7
27.8
31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
47.4
66.0
79.0
100.0
114.0
121.0
106.0
107.0
40.9
39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
55.1
53.0
Seasonally
adjusted
Seasonal ly adjusted anni> al rates
555
592
739
977
1,059
904
906
Seasonally
adjusted
annual rates
1981:
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
235.9
233.5
230.8
230.0
228.8
185.2
182.4
180.0
178.1
176.6
84.1
80.4
78.2
76.2
75.8
60.8
57.1
53.4
50.4
49.4
53.0
53.4
53.2
54.0
53.0
48.2
48.6
48.6
47.9
47.7
50.7
51.1
50.8
51.9
52.2
99
100
101
92
112
944
817
891
849
848
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"
Sept"
225.1
222.6
224.6
226.1
228.7
231.6
228.8
230.2
229.8
175.5
173.0
173.6
175.1
179.9
182.7
180.3
179.4
179.4
73.7
69.2
70.0
72.3
75.5
75.3
76.2
76.7
76.7
51.0
49.2
51.0
49.6
51.0
49.8
51.5
52.1
52.4
53.3
54.1
55.0
54.3
53.9
56.5
53.9
52.8
52.8
48.5
49.8
48.6
48.5
50.6
50.9
50.2
49.9
49.9
49.6
49.6
51.0
51.0
48.8
48.9
48.4
50.8
50.4
118
115
105
88
94
111
98
112
117
675
781
758
688
620
816
677
733
640
of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New pri\ ate homes
New private housing units
Period
Units started, b\ type of structure
1 unit
Total
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
2-4 units
5 or more units
1,337.7
1,160.4
1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
888.1
892.2
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
899
854
860
882
623
507
554
550
62
78
81
74
214
269
225
258
885
945
931
882
1,066
908
1,193
1,002
1,146
592
568
621
566
631
621
628
622
663
70
84
67
64
86
83
102
90
107
223
293
243
252
349
204
463
290
376
68.1
64.0
85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
381.6
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
Units
authorized
Units
completed
Homes sold
Homes for
sale at end of
period :
1,728.5
1,317.2
1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
519
549
646
819
817
709
545
436
835
738
743
797
1,202
1,265
1,067
1,114
335
359
388
456
304
291
282
272
803
792
851
879
944
929
1,062
888
1,038
1,063
920
926
962
1,138
939
1,007
991
399
376
380
335
395
372
352
359
275
274
269
264
259
253
250
247
1,074.4
939.2
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
346
313
353
402
414
3
398
336
272
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
Seasona. ly adjusted annu al rates
1981:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July ".
Aug"
Sept"
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not fitrictlv comparable
NOTE,—Units authorized heginn
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.3
16,000 permit-issuing places; data
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade
Business sales fell 1.4 percent in August and inventories rose $2.0 billion. According to the advance survey, retail
sales rose 1.0 percent in September following a decline of 1.0 percent in August.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE]
140
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE)
130
-RETAIL INVENTORIES
120
110
100
90
..-'"-..*•-»'
~~
80
RETAIL SALES
70 -
60
50
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
RATIO*
150
_
-
1.80
1.70 -
100
1982
1982
1978
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Total bi siness 1
Sales
Period
Sales
2
Sales
Inventory-s ales ratio 4
Re ail
Wholesale
2
Total
Inventories 3
2
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Retail
Nondurable goods
stores
Millions of dollars, seasonally ,idjusted
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug"
Sept "
177,625
182,230
204,277
229,623
259,046
294,573
321,504
350,622
285,807
288,375
318,544
351,176
397,090
444,132
482,570
519,394
47,748
46,623
50,694
55,987
65,036
76,109
87,931
97,839
56,948
56,697
64,078
72,311
83,891
93,870
104,441
110,549
45,082
49,012
54,781
60,435
67,057
74,529
79,325
86,566
14,118
15,247
18,150
20,724
23,313
25,401
24,716
27,216
30,964
33,765
36,631
39,711
43,744
49,128
54,609
59,350
71,067
71,744
79,273
89,530
102,520
109,228
114,114
125,693
32,861
33,356
37,841
43,135
49,914
53,265
53,747
58,835
38,206
38,388
41,432
46,395
52,606
55,963
60,367
66,858
1.45
1.57
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.43
1.48
1.44
1.38
1.40
1.43
1.44
1.41
1.39
354,520
353,725
346,605
344,943
341,330
510,099
515,349
518,241
521,574
519,394
97,285
97,746
96,235
96,768
95,144
107,656
108,764
108,491
110,173
110,549
87,961
87,823
86,413
86,733
86,572
28,098
27,810
26,354
26,436
26,206
123,341
59,863
60,013 124,376
60,059
125,364
60,297 • 125,618
125,693
60,366
58,545
58,761
59,014
58,907
58,835
64,796
65,615
66,350
66,711
66,858
1.44
1.46
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.40
1.42
1.45
1.45
1.45
334,579
340,571
342,121
339,835
349,096
346,126
344,603
339,892
516,256
513,906
513,054
515,074
510,517
512,981
513,387
515,345
94,236
95,010
97,361
95,427
97,427
96,565
93,776
92,807
110,971
108,823
109,657
112,913
111,701
113,515
113,534
113,904
85,320
87,418
87,242
88,294
90,841
88,042
89,445
88,563
89,482
25,316
26,696
26,958
27,984
29,416
27,175
27,403
26,571
27,214
60,004
60,722
60,284
60,310
61,425
60,867
62,042
61,992
62,268
124,131
123,395
123,332
123,175
122,367
124,351
124,939
127,107
57,807
56,957
56,803
56,663
55,984
57,346
58,246
60,038
66,324
66,438
66,529
66,512
66,383
67,005
66,693
67,069
1.54
1.51
1.50
1.52
1.46
1.48
1.49
1.52
1.45
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.35
1.41
1.40
1.44
Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised for total business and wholesale sales and inventories
•egining January 1981,
nventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
20
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In August, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders fell. In September, according to advance estimates,
durable goods shipments fell, while new orders rose slightly.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE)
200
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
40
1978
1982
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufa cturers' ship nents l
Manufa 3turers' inven tories
2
JV Manufacturers new orders
!
Durabl 3 goods
Period
Durable
goods
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Capital
Nondurable goods
Total
industries,
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3
Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 4
defense
M llions
of do lars, seaso lally adjust 3d
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
86,595
98,802
113,201
126,953
143,935
154,249
166,217
43,656
50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,540
83,417
42,939
48,113
53,934
59,104
67,875
76,708
82,800
159,934
175,193
189,334
210,679
241,034
264,016
283,152
102,874
112,581
121,737
138,045
160,601
174,674
188,429
57,060
62,612
67,598
72,634
80,433
89,341
94,723
85,149
99,543
115,027
131,664
147,354
155,738
166,015
42,019
51,398
61,076
72,410
79,394
79,060
83,272
11,011
12,799
15,276
19,444
23,203
23,449
24,061
43,130
48,145
53,951
59,254
67,960
76,678
82,743
173,829
182,499
204,880
261,941
303,178
320,977
318,621
1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.66
1981: Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
169,274
168,156
163,957
161,442
159,614
85,223
84,671
81,265
80,279
79,133
84,051
83,485
82,692
81,163
80,481
279,102
282,209
284,386
285,784
283,152
185,022
187,686
189,461
190,222
188,429
94,080
94,523
94,925
95,561
94,723
168,797
167,728
159,558
159,460
156,660
84,819
84,456
77,193
78,592
76,421
24,867
24,312
22,528
24,369
22,130
83,979
83,272
82,365
80,868
80,239
328,384
327,955
323,556
321,574
318,621
1.65
1.68
1.73
1.77
1.77
1982:
155,023
158,142
157,517
156,114
160,828
161,519
161,382
158,522
75,551
77,976
78,124
77,136
79,518
78,888
79,036
77,151
76,415
79,472
80,167
79,394
78,978
81,310
82,631
82,346
81,371
281,155
281,688
280,065
278,985
276,449
275,115
274,914
274,334
187,054
187,121
186,063
185,916
184,870
184,289
183,798
183,582
94,100
94,567
94,002
93,070
91,579
90,826
91,116
90,752
154,519
155,984
157,198
154,995
156,791
157,058
158,588
154,498
75,061
76,309
77,859
76,194
75,710
74,550
76,446
73,100
73,253
21,717
21,560
22,174
22,608
20,332
19,278
20,322
19,011
20,072
79,458
79,676
79,339
78,803
81,081
82,508
82,142
81,398
318,114
315,957
315,639
314,521
310,482
306,032
303,235
299,215
1.81
1.78
1.78
1.79
1.72
1.70
1.70
1.73
1
2
3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"
Sept"
1.84
Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipm
Book value, end of period.
End of period.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In September, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of
finished consumer foods fell 0.5 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods increased 0.1 percent. Prices
of capital equipment fell 0.4 percent from their August level.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
160 -
160
140
140
120
120
1974
1982
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCiL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Internlediate ma terials
Fin shed goods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Cnide mater als
Fi nished go Dds excluding consumer foo Js
Consumer g jods
Total
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Capital
equipment
er goo s
Total
Foods
Other
and
feeds '
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Other
147.5
163.4
170.6
181.7
195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
166.9
181.0
180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
139.3
156.2
166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
138.6
153.1
162.6
174.3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
125.9
138.2
144.5
152.8
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
146.8
163.0
174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
141.0
162.5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
149.3
163.6
169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
162.9
180.0
189.1
201.5
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
200.2
195.3
185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
159.5
178.6
189.4
202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
196.1
196.9
202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
190.2
192.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
208.9
206.9
228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
272.6
274.2
275.5
276.3
255.5
255.0
253.2
253.0
276.4
278.6
280.9
281.9
279.3
281.4
283.8
284.6
219.5
222.5
224.5
224.7
323.9
325.3
328.0
329.3
267.8
270.5
272.5
274.1
273.9
275.2
276.3
276.9
309.8
309.7
310.6
311.1
242.5
238.3
233.6
233.2
314.8
315.1
316.3
316.9
328.4
322.7
318.1
313.6
252.0
246.1
240.8
234.1
492.2
486.9
483.9
484.6
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
277.8
277.3
276.9
277.1
276.9
279.7
281.3
283.0
282.6
255.9
257.1
256.8
261.1
262.7
263.9
260.0
260.3
258.9
283.0
282.0
281.6
280.5
279.8
283.0
286.4
288.5
288.4
285.6
284.7
283.6
281.7
280.4
283.9
288.1
290.3
290.6
224.4
223.1
224.3
223.7
224.6
226.9
227.5
229.1
227.1
331.3
330.6
327.8
325.0
322.0
326.5
333.4
336.0
338.1
275.4
274.3
275.7
276.5
277.5
279.9
281.2
283.1
282.1
278.5
278.2
277.3
277.3
276.8
279.7
281.3
283.0
282.7
312.0
311.1
310.1
308.3
308.8
309.7
311.0
310.7
310.8
237.8
238.9
237.4
243.4
247.3
247.0
244.1
241.8
237.4
317.6
316.5
315.5
313.1
313.4
314.4
316.0
315.8
316.2
319.3
317.3
314.7
320.1
327.4
327.0
323.7
321.9
317.0
244.5
246.1
246.7
255.4
262.5
260.5
253.4
250.8
241.3
480.3
470.6
461.2
459.8
467.8
470.7
475.4
475.0
479.8
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
1
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing aad feeds.
NOTE.—Data revised for May 1982.
22
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics-
189.4
191.8
CONSUMER PRICES
In September, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (also 0.2
percent unadjusted). Food and beverages prices rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices fell 0.1
percent, unadjusted.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE]
320
UNADJUSTED
300
300
280
280
260
260
240
240
220
220
1974
1975
M i i Ii
1976
1980
1979
1981
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Transportatie n
Housing
Period
All
items ^
Pood
and
beverages
Total '
NSA
Bel. imp.6.
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
1
100.0
147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
279.3
279.9
280.7
281.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
292.8
293.3
17.5
158.7
172.1
177.4
188.0
206.3
228.5
248.0
267.3
270.9
271.5
271.9
272.1
274.1
275.8
274.9
275.7
277.8
279.6
279.5
278.8
280.2
Home
purchase
Home
financing,
taxes,
and
NSA
insurance
NSA
46.0
9.6
148.8
164.5
174.6
186.5
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
303.2
303.3
304.8
305.9
306.7
307.9
306.9
309.5
313.7
316.8
318.4
319.7
319.1
142.7
160.3
168.4
179.5
196.7
223.1
254.3
267.7
274.5
272.5
270.2
270.5
269.3
270.4
269.2
272.3
279.3
285.6
287.7
287.9
286.8
Apparel
and
upkeep
12.9
181.1
201.9
212.8
227.2
257.8
308.9
396.0
472.5
501.8
501.8
505.6
506.3
506.0
507.2
500.9
508.4
•516.2
521.8
524.3
527.3
519.9
Includes items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and' gasohol beginning September 1981,
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
4
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
5
An experimental measure using a renta! equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January' 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate
a rental equivalence measure.
2
3
Total '
New
cars
All items
Motor2
fuel
Medical
care
Energy 3
NSA
19.3
137.7
150.6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
284.6
288.2
290.8
292.5
291.9
289.9
287.1
282.6
283.8
289.7
293.1
293.9
294.8
4.6
136.2
142.3
147.6
154.2
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
189.0
189.5
189.3
189.4
189.3
190.1
190.9
191.1
191.0
191.2
192.1
192.8
193.2
6
3.1
117.5
127.6
135.7
142.9
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
193.7
194.0
194.6
196.1
196.0
194.5
194.6
196.0
196.5
197.9
198.8
199.7
200.1
6.0
4.9
159.9
170.8
177.9
188.2
150.5
168.6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
302.0
305.0
308.3
310.5
312.9
315.0
318.1
321.3
324.2
327.1
330.5
333.4
336.3
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
408.3
414.6
418.1
420.3
413.1
403.6
387.6
361.8
365.1
384.7
392.0
391.7
391.5
11.1
159.7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
417.1
414.9
414.1
414.6
416.4
413.0
406.1
395.7
402.1
418.6
424.5
424.5
424.2
less food,
energy,
and home
purchase
finance
4
49.8
138.5
150.5
160.8
170.6
180.9
194.1
211.6
231.6
236.5
238.3
239.8
241.4
242.5
243.4
244.6
246.1
247.0
248.7
250.3
251.3
252.4
All
items5
X-l
NSA
142.9
154.7
163.5
173.9
185.8
203.6
226.4
248.0
252.8
253.9
254.9
255.8
257.2
258.0
258.4
258.8
260.6
263.2
265.0
265.5
266.8
Relative importance, December 1981.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban was
clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
Percen change frorn 3 months earlier;
seas onally adjust ed annual nites
Percent change frorn preceding jeriod;
seasonally adjusted 1
Period
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
11.7
12.8
11.8
7.4
7.5
1.4
7.1
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
20.5
5.5
2.5
6.9
.2
.6
.5
.3
-.5
.2
.5
1.1
.5
-.1
1.7
.6
17.5
14.2
8.5
.5
.8
.9
.3
-.7
-.1
2
-.1
.1
—.1
.4
.5
.4
.9
1.2
1.5
.8
.1
-1.5
.1
*
.5
.3
>J
-.5
.5
.7
-.4
ConsunwIT goods
Total
finished
Excluding foods
Foods
goods
8.8
7.8
5.7
7.6
7.8
9.7
5.3
4.5
5.0
4.5
1.8
-.1
1.2
6.1
1.3
-1.4
-5.4
5.9
.4
9.4
14.9
9.8
7.4
2.7
2.4
1.6
4.7
6.2
7.0
8.3
3.2
4.8
3.9
3.2
2.1
1.0
2.5
2.5
4.2
4.2
-.5
.2
1.0
4.8
7.6
8.8
3.2
2.5
1.6
3.2
5.9
-2.5
5.5
-3.9
1.4
6.3
6.1
8.4
9.0
11.5
— 1.7
-3.6
7.4
5.4
2.6
.9
1.0
-.6
4.1
6.2
9.1
4.2
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
1.6
3.4
4.3
5.1
5.5
^
-A
Foods
goods
— .3
.5
1.0
.6
.6
finished
5.3
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
'9.2
.1
1.0
.7
.6
.5
7.4
22.5
13.0
Consume r goods
Total
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Poods
11.8
18.3
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
1
Consumt r goods
Total
finished
goods
Percen change frorn 6 months earlier;
seas onally adjus ,ed annual r ites
2.6
Capital
equipment
5.4
4.3
6.0
5.5
7.8
8.1
8.2
7.7
6.0
5.0
3.1
.2
7.5
5.2
6.0
4.5
3.7
4.3
4.3
6.5
4.7
-2.4
-.5
1.8
4.0
5.0
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Based on revised data for May 1982.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted J
Tra nsportaticm
Housing
Period
All
items
2
Food
and
beverages
Total
2
Home
purchase
NSA
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
1
12.2
7.0
4.8
6.8
9.0
13.3
12.4
12.0
6.2
.8
7.6
11.6
10.0
10.1
13.4
7.5
5.4
7.6
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2
8.9
4.3
1.1
.4
.5
.4
.7
.2
.1
.1
1.3
.0
.3
.2
-.3
.2
1.0
1.0
.6
.3
.2
.7
.6
-.3
.3
.8
.6
-.0
-.3
.5
.3
.4
-.3
.8
1.4
1.0
.5
.4
-.2
.5
.4
10.1
10.0
4.3
8.4
11.2
15.8
11.4
1.2
.7
-.7
.8
.1
— .4
.4
-.4
1.2
2.6
2.3
.7
.1
-.4
Home
financing,
taxes,
and
insurance
Apparel
and
upkeep
Total
24
Motor
fuel 3
Medical
care
.2
-1.2
1.5
1.5
1.1
.5
.6
-1.4
Energy4
energy,
and
home
purchase
All
items
X-l 6
11.1
11.1
NSA
8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6
.3
.3
— .1
.1
.1
.4
.4
.1
— .1
.1
.5
.4
.2
Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted.
Includes items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
4
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
5
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
6
An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homownership costs. Effective
with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a
3
3
New
cars
2
NSA
14.6
7.6
1.6
11.2
14.7
27.5
23.3
17.9
2.8
0
.8
.1
-.1
Adde idum:
All item percent
change (annual
ra te)
All items
11.5
13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0
1.1
1.3
.9
.6
-.2
-.7
-1.0
-1.6
.4
2.1
1.2
.3
.3
7.3
4.8
7.2
6.2
7.4
7.5
6.8
20.6
11.0
2.6
4.9
8.5
52.2
18.9
9.4
.9
.5
1.5
.2
.8
.3
.5
.8
-.1 -1.7
-.8 -2.3
.1 -4.0
.7 -6.7
.3
.9
5.4
.7
1.9
.5
— .1
.5
.2
— .1
12.4
9.9
10.1
8.8
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5
.9
1.0
1.1
.7
.8
.7
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
1.0
.9
.9
21.6
11.6
37.4
18.1
11.9
6.3
6.8
5.5
6.9
7.5
9.9
9.4
.2
-.5
-.2
.1
.9
.8
.6
.7
.7
.6
.6
.5
.4
-.8
.5
.4
.5
.6
.4
.7
.6
.4
.4
.4
.1
.2
6.9
7.2
8.0
-1.7
-2.6
1.6
4.1
1.4
0
-.1
From
3
months
earlier
From
6
months
earlier
12.8
10.4
10.5
6.6
5.1
6.3
7.9
10.8
10.8
8.5
2
.6
1.0
.8
.3
.5
9.7
8.4
5.4
4.8
3.7
1.0
.8
3.7
9.3
10.8
7.9
4.2
9.8
9.1
7.2
6.0
3.2
2.8
3.7
5.1
5.7
5.8
6.7
rental equivalence measure.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 5.1 percent in October and prices paid by farmers fell 0.6 perent in the month
ended October 15.
INDEX, 1977=100
INDEX, 1977=100
(RATIO SCALE)
(RATIO SCALE)
80
1982
1974
]/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[1977=100]
I rices paid by farmer s
Pri ces received by farm ers
Period
1974
1975
All farm
products
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
81
89
95
100
109
143
81
89
95
100
108
123
138
150
125
139
150
108
125
138
148
130
113
107
100
106
107
97
92
150
150
150
149
149
148
147
147
145
87
87
85
154
153
153
154
154
155
155
155
154
154
153
148
151
150
150
150
151
151
151
150
149
86
86
86
87
90
88
87
85
87
83
Livestock and
products
105
101
102
100
115
132
134
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates I
117
105
102
100
105
116
94
98
101
100
124
147
144
138
125
134
Oct
Nov
Dec
130
130
128
120
121
122
140
138
133
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
132
133
133
135
139
137
136
133
136
129
126
123
120
123
125
125
124
119
125
114
137
142
145
147
151
149
148
147
146
143
1981:
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.
.
154
155
155
155
156
156
156
156
155
Production
items
83
91
97
100
Ratio 2
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
Growth in Ml accelerated in September, while the pace in M2 and M3 slowed.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
400
400
200
200
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUHCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1974: Dec
1975: Dec
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
1981:
Sept
1982:
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept"
1
Ml
M2
M3
L
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks, and
other checkable1 deposits
(OCD)
Ml plus overnight RPs
and Eurodollars,
MMMP balances
(general purpose and
broker/dealer), and
savings and small time
deposits
M2 plus large time
deposits, term RPs, and
institution-only MMMF
M3 plus other liquid
assets
277.4
291.0
310.4
335.5
363.2
389.0
414.5
440.9
911.2
1,026.9
1,171.2
1,297.7
1,403.9
1,518.9
1,656.2
1,822.7
1,064.3
1,166.2
1,305.0
1,464.6
1,629.0
1,779.4
1,963.1
2,188.1
1,249.8
1,376.6
1,531.4
1,724.3
1,938.9
2,153.9
2,370.4
2,642.8
4.4
4.9
6.7
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.6
6.4
5.6
12.7
14.1
10.8
8.2
8.2
9.0
10.1
8.4
9.6
11.9
12.2
11.2
9.2
10.3
11.5
431.2
432.9
436.4
440.9
1,778.3
1,789.5
1,809.9
1,822.7
2,138.1
2,151.1
2,174.7
2,188.1
2,577.2
2,600.0
2,629.3
2,642.8
3.2
-.2
3.4
5.9
9.3
7.8
9.1
9.6
11.6
10.5
10.9
10.4
448.6
447.3
448.3
452.4
451.5
451.4
451.3
455.2
460.5
1,841.3
1,848.0
1,865.2
1,880.7
1,897.5
1,907.9
1,923.4
1,946.3
1,954.1
2,204.3
2,215.0
2,235.8
2,258.1
2,279.3
2,296.0
2,320.3
2,355.7
2,362.4
2,667.9
2,690.5
2,716.7
2,743.7
2,773.3
2,798.0
9.1
7.7
8.1
9.2
7.0
4.8
1.2
3.6
5.5
10.2
8.7
10.0
10.5
9.9
9.6
9.1
10.9
9.8
9.9
8.5
9.3
10.2
9.9
10.1
10.8
13.1
11.6
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at an annual rate.
26
Percent hange from pear or 6
n onths earlier
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System-
Ml
M2
M3
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
DePeriod
Currency
mand
deposits l
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCD)
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
Money market
mutua Hund
bala nces
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
Institution
only
NSA
NSA
NSA
Dec:
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
2.1
3.2
2.8
2.9
7.1
0.2
.4
.6
.9
3.1
9.3
Term
repurchase
agreements
CBPs)
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
NSA
NSA
ings
bonds
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
53.6
77.1
81.1
89.9
99.3
128.5
156.7
176.5
11.8
21.4
26.5
31.8
39.7
50.1
48.0
51.7
62.9
79.2
97.0
98.1
104.2
Sav
290.0
340.9
396.5
454.1
533.9
652.6
751.7
854.7
129.8
118.2
145.2
194.6
221.8
257.9
300.3
8.4
9.0
8.0
9.7
15.0
21.0
27.5
30.2
37.8
35.4
13.1
18.7
29.9
42.9
48.4
66.7
63.2
67.2
71.7
76.4
80.3
79.6
72.3
67.7
Bankers'
acceptances
10.6
mercial
paper
16.9
26.9
77.0
34.4
61.9
151.2
13.9
33.7
234.7
235.7
235.7
236.4
71.2
71.6
74.7
77.0
39.6
36.1
36.9
38.1
130.6
137.3
144.9
151.2
26.6
29.4
32.0
33.7
343.1
339.6
340.9
343.6
839.7
849.8
856.8
854.7
302.3
302.2
300.6
300.3
33.8
33.4
35.6
35.4
61.2
63.4
65.5
66.7
68.4
67.9
67.7
67.7
168.1
176.0
179.9
176.5
37.6
37.1
38.1
39.7
103.8
104.4
103.7
104.2
239.3
234.5
233.0
233.0
232.7
231.0
230.6
231.1
232.6
81.1
83.8
85.8
88.6
87.0
87.5
87.4
90.2
93.0
43.2
42.9
43.0
40.4
42.8
43.0
43.4
44.5
43.1
154.9
156.0
159.2
161.9
164.3
168.6
171.3
180.0
181.9
32.5
30.5
31.5
31.5
32.8
33.7
36.7
43.1
43.9
348.8
348.6
350.7
350.5
350.9
349.9
344.0
342.1
342.5
852.3
859.4
869.9
881.6
894.1
900.9
919.7
930.6
932.6
302.6
308.0
312.6
317.2
321.6
328.3
335.8
339.6
339.0
32.5
32.5
31.5
34.2
32.6
31.2
29.3
32.0
29.9
69.9
73.8
74.1
78.2
82.5
83.5
67.8
67.8
67.7
67.7
67.7
67.8
180.3
186.4
191.0
191.7
191.9
194.8
40.2
39.1
37.9
38.3
39.9
40.3
105.5
108.4
110.3
109.7
112.1
115.7
Dec
121.1
121.3
121.8
123.1
1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept"
123.8
124.6
125.1
126.3
127.4
128.4
128.8
129.5
130.5
Nov
7.2
7.5
Large
denomination time
deposits 2
13.7
18.8
24.1
26.3
35.0
38.1
80.6
88.6
97.4
106.1
116.2
123.1
1981:
Sept
Oct
0.4
.9
2.7
4.2
8.4
Small
denomination time
deposits 2
337.6
387.7
451.7
490.4
479.9
421.7
398,9
343.6
207.4
214.1
224.4
239.6
253.9
262.2
267.2
236.4
67.8
73.8
Savings
deposits
1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
144.4
8.4
8.8
NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total '
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
1982:
1
Automobile
Net char ge in amount ou standing
Insta [ment credit liqui dated
Insta Iment credit exte nded
Revolving
Total '
Automobile
Revolving
Total '
Automobile
Revolving
172,765
180,083
210,740
257,600
297,668
324,777
306,076
336,341
46,514
52,420
63,743
75,641
87,981
93,901
83,454
94,404
33,213
36,956
43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
128,068
140,135
163,276
172,675
189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
304,628
316,447
46,019
49,444
53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
82,977
84,809
31,243
35,616
41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
126,653
135,438
9,489
7,408
21,561
35,462
43,079
38,381
1,448
19,894
495
2,976
10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715
1,970
1,340
2,170
6,248
9,035
8,628
477
1,415
4,697
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
28,323
29,406
26,836
27,370
26,656
8,396
9,000
7,490
8,073
7,352
11,663
12,263
11,753
11,379
11,592
25,895
26,431
25,834
26,770
26,689
6,537
6,921
6,466
7,509
7,284
11,486
11,692
11,429
11,358
11,533
2,428
2,975
1,002
1,859
2,079
1,024
600
-33
564
68
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
26,888
27,150
27,462
28,684
29,197
29,737
27,514
27,579
7,474
7,283
7,183
7,871
8,429
8,182
7,332
7,112
11,070
11,730
12,143
12,416
12,528
13,361
12,551
12,497
26,445
27,075
26,472
27,509
27,798
28,388
26,944
27,513
7,595
7,339
7,211
7,638
7,470
7,527
7,271
7,514
11,266
11,885
11,836
11,917
11,991
12,854
11,93912,354
443
75
990
-121
Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.
1,175
1,399
1,349
570
66
9,595
-56
-28
233
959
655
61
-402
177
571
324
21
59
-196
-155
307
499
537
507
612
143
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Growth in commercial and industrial loans accelerated in September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
1,8001
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
1,400
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
600
600
400
400
),600 hALL COMMERCIAL BANKS-
INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES
200
180
160
140
120
200
180
160
100
100
140
120
INVESTMENT IN
U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES
60
60
I I I I I II
40
1974
LI II I LU
1975
40
LLL
J_U
1976
1977
1978
1979
1981
1980
1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Depo itory institutio ns 3
A I commercial ban k s 1
Loans a nd leases
Period
Total loans
and
investments
1
1
Total
1975: Dec
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug"
Sept"
2
28
Commercial
and industrial
loans
U.S. Treasury
securities
Other
securities
Total
Nonborrowed
Borr Jwings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)
Required
Totai
Seasonal
745.2
804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1,316.3
517.4
555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
915.1
973.9
189.6
190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0
82.2
100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0
145.6
148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4
29.29
29.86
31.17
32.82
34.26
36.46
37.99
29.16
29.81
30.60
31.95
32.79
34.77
37.35
29.02
29.59
30.98
32.59
33.93
35.95
37.67
1,473
1,617
636
13
12
54
134
82
116
53
1,317.8
1,324.0
1,327.5
1,316.3
979.0
982.8
986.1
973.9
360.6
363.7
363.4
358.0
113.2
112.5
110.3
111.0
225.6
228.7
231.2
231.4
37.72
37.60
37.62
37.99
36.27
36.42
36.95
37.35
37.31
37.33
37.27
37.67
1,451
1,179
661
636
222
152
79
53
1,320.0
1,332.4
1,342.5
1,352.5
1,362.0
1,368.8
1,376.1
1,383.1
1,389.4
974.5
985.2
995.0
1,002.0
1,010.8
1,017.1
1,023.7
1,028.3
1,033.6
360.3
365.5
370.0
373.1
378.9
383.4
386.7
387.9
392.5
114.1
115.1
114.4
116.6
116.3
115.8
116.5
117.8
118.2
231.5
232.0
233.1
234.0
234.9
235.9
235.9
237.1
237.6
•
38.71
38.26
38.36
38.43
38.50
38.58
38.52
38.80
39.57
37.20
36.47
36.80
36.87
37.39
37.37
37.83
38.29
38.63
38.30
37.96
37.99
38.16
38.15
38.27
38.21
38.49
39.18
1,526
1,713
1,611
1,581
75
132
174
167
237
239
225
119
102
'Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.
2
3
E eserves adjust id
for changes m
re serve requirernents
1
Investrnents
127
62
558
874
1,105
1,205
669
510
976
NOTE.—Beginning Dec- 1981, banks loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been
reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
•••
1
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Total
Internal
C edit market fu nds
l
TotaV
Total
Loans and
short-term
paper
Securities
and
mortgages
1972
1973
1974
165.8
208.7
202.9
167.9
223.4
252.3
315.4
346.3
333.7
352.2
1975
1976
1977..
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
I
II
Ill
333.7
381.2
348.9
345.0
rv
1982: I
II"
296.7
331.1
85.0
91.7
85.6
119.7
134.2
157.4
175.7
188.8
197.5
231.1
222.4
225.4
235.2
241.4
232.6
233.6
80.8
117.0
117.3
48.3
89.2
94.9
139.7
157.5
136.2
121.1
111.3
155.8
113.7
103.6
64.1
97.5
57.6
72.9
82.8
41.7
64.3
70.4
79.3
91.2
95.7
92.6
68.7
119.1
100.2
82.5
109.4
102.2
16.9
36.0
43.6
8.0
16.3
36.5
47.4
65.3
38.2
69.6
27.1
84.3
97.0
69.9
40.7
36.9
39.1
49.7
48.0
33.9
31.9
25.9
57.5
23.0
41.6
34.8
3.2
12.6
28.3
36.1
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valu ation and cap tal eonsumption adjustments) capital
consumption allowances, and fc reign branch j rofits, dividend s, and subsidi tries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, tn de debt, and d reel foreign inv estment in the U.S.
81.1
66.1
Total
Other 2
23.2
44.0
34.5
6.5
24.9
24.5
60.4
66.3
40.6
28.4
42.6
36.8
13.5
21.0
-45.2
—4.7
149.1
191.9
190.1
150.9
201.4
237.6
294.2
347.1
325.6
318.1
331.4
352.2
304.6
284.0
224.1
259.9
Capital
expenditures 3
99.0
121.5
137.9
109.7
148.3
175.1
202.2
219.8
220.5
260.9
233.5
260.0
284.6
265.5
240.7
247.8
Increase in
financial
assets
50.1
70.5
52.2
41.2
53.0
62.5
92.0
127.3
105.1
57.2
97.9
92.2
20.0
18.5
-16.6
12.1
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
16.7
16.7
12.9
17.0
22.0
14.7
21.2
-.8
8.1
34.1
2.2
29.0
44.2
61.0
72.6
71.2
3
Plant and equip ment, resident! ll structures, in ventory investm nt, and mineral rights from U.S.
Go /eminent.
S ource: Board of Governors of tl e Federal Rest rve System.
CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current liabilitif s
Curren assets
U.S.
End of period
Total
Cash
Govertt-
Notes and
accounts
receivable
Other
current
assets
Inventories
Total
Notes and
accounts
payable
Other
current
liabilities
211.3
93.6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1
Net
working
capital
Current
ratio:
SEC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
FTC-FRB series: 3
1974.....
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
I
II
Ill
IV
1982: I"
492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7
50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3
735.4
759.0
827.4
912.7
1,043.7
1,218.2
1,336.1
1,419.3
73.2
82.1
88.2
97.2
105.5
118.0
127.3
132.1
126.9
126.7
125.7
132.1
122.0
11.1
19.0
23.5
18.2
17.3
17.0
19.9
18.6
19.8
20.5
18.6
18.6
17.6
1,374.6
1,385.9
1,405.7
1,419.3
1,413.2
7.7
206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5
322.1
193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6
35.0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7
304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4
220.5
282.9
340,3
402.3
265.8
272.1
292.9
330.3
388.0
461.1
509.0
527.9
524.2
528.3
535.4
527.9
319.5
315.9
342.5
376.9
431.6
505.5
540.2
578.5
554.4
559.3
569.8
578.5
584.4
65.9
69.9
80.3
90.1
101.3
116.7
139.6
162.2
148.4
151.0
156.3
162.2
453.4
451.6
495.1
557.1
669.3
807.8
886.8
964.1
269.8
264.2
282.1
317.6
382.9
461.2
508.3
544.2
916.1
921.6
954.1
964.1
966.3
510.3
513.1
533.6
544.2
533.4
526.0
163.1
183.6
187.4
213.0
239.6
286.4
346.6
378.5
419.9
405.8
408.4
420.5
419.9
432.8
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3
1.615
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491
282.0
307.4
332.4
355.5
374.4
410.5
449.3
455.1
- 1.681
1.671
1.638
1.559
1.508
1.507
1.472
187.4
458.5
464.3
451.7
455.1
446.9
1.622
1.500
1.504
1.473
1.472
1.463
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details reg; 'ding the series.
FTC-FRB series revised beginning 1976.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and
Securities and Exchange Commission.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell again in October.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
1981
1974
SOURCE; SEE TABLE BELOW
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum}
U.S. 1 Veasury security yields
Period
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Week ended:
1982: Sept 11
18
25
Oct 2
9
16
23
30
3-month
bills '
Constant rnaturities 2
3-year
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)
4.989
5.265
7.221
10.041
11.506
14.077
13.873
11.269
10.926
12.412
13.780
12.493
12.821
12.148
12.108
11.914
9.006
8.196
7.750
6.69
8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
15.50
13.11
13.66
14.64
14.73
14.13
14.18
13.77
14.48
14.00
12.62
12.03
10.62
7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
15.15
13.39
13.72
14.59
14.43
13.86
13.87
13.62
14.30
13.95
13.06
12.34
10.91
6.39
8.51
11.23
12,67
11.71
12.77
13.16
12.81
12.72
12.45
11.99
12.42
12.11
11.12
10.61
9.59
8.43
8.02
8.73
9.63
11.94
14.17
15.40
14.22
14.23
15.18
15.27
14.58
14.46
14.26
14.81
14.61
13,71
12.94
12.12
8.565
8.161
7.849
7.801
8.102
7.429
7.437
8.031
12.16
12.23
11.96
11.60
11.19
10.27
10.28
10.52
12.58
12.58
12.14
11.78
11.33
10.57
10.67
10.87
10.71
10.64
10.53
10.48
9.72
9.16
9.54
9.93
13.03
13,08
12.83
12.66
12.49
11.94
11.95
12.00
6.77
6.49
5.56
5.90
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months 4
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.K.
Bank) 5
Prime rate
charged by
banks 3
6.84
6.83
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
19&-18
18-16
15%-15%
"5.34
"5.61
7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
14.72
11.96
12.14
13.35
14.27
13.47
13.64
13.02
13.79
1-3.00
10.80
10.86
9.21
13.41
14-14
14-13
13-12
12 12
12-12
12-12
12-12
12-12
12 12
12-11&
11)4-10
10-10
10
9&
15% 15%
15?4~16%
16&-16&
16&-16J6
16fc-16fc
16&-16JS
16X-15&
15&-13&
13&-13&
13&-12
10.95
11.20
10.76
10.45
10.17
8.73
8.67
8.93
10 -10
10 10
10 -10
10 -10
10 10
10 - 9&
9& 9&
9M- 9&
13fc-13fc
13X-13&
13&-13M
13&-13&
13&-13
13 -12
12 -12
12 -12
4
5.50
5.46
7.46
10.28
11.77
New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) B
9.00
9.02
9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
15.65
16.38
15.87
15.25
15.12
15.67
15.84
15.89
15.40
15.70
15.68
14.99
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Hates beginning
January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
30
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose again in October.
INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50
INDEX, DEC31,1965=50
80
80
70 -
- 70
60
60
50
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)
/\
10
5 -
1974
1975
SOURCES; NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE >
1976
1978
1977
1979
1980
IANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION
1981
Co mmon stock price s l
Period
Ne\v York Stock Ex change indexes (I 'ec. 31, 1965 — 5 O)
Composite
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Week ended:
1982: Sept 18
25
Oct 2
9
16
23
30
1
Industrial
54.46
53.69
53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02
69.40
71.49
71.81
67.91
66.16
63.86
66.97
67.07
63.10
62.82
62.91
70.21
76.10
60.44
57.86
58.23
64.76
78.70
85.44
78.93
80.86
81.70
76.85
74.78
71.51
75.59
75.97
71.59
71.37
70.98
80.08
86.67
70.63
70.91
70.11
72,16
77.23
79.19
77.05
80.74
80.93
79.67
81.90
87.97
90.44
87.82
Transportation
Common st ock yields
(perce nt) 5
2
Finance
Utility
Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3
52.94
55.25
56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52
72.56
76.47
74.74
70.99
70.50
69.08
71.44
69.16
63.19
61.59
62.84
69.66
80.59
974.92
47.34
60.61
72.61
65.65
67.68
68.27
62.04
59.09
55.19
57.91
56.84
53.07
53.40
53.98
61.39
66.64
36.97
40.92
39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91
38.87
40.73
40.22
39.30
38.32
38.57
39.20
39.40
37.34
37.20
38.19
40.36
42.67
61.73
61.18
60.29
62.05
66.63
70.04
69.06
40.29
40.60
40.62
41.52
43.42
43.62
42.48
69.53
70.86
71.58
75.59
81.50
84.06
82.89
923.38
924.80
910.10
941.58
1,004.30
1,027.12
998.05
39.57
41.09
43.50
Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the"stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes SO stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesda' closing prices. Earningsce ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
2
3
1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
894.63
820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92
853.25
860.44
878.28
853.41
833.15
812.33
844.96
846.72
804.37
818.41
832.11
917.27
988.71
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10) 4
Dividendprice ratio
102.01
98.20
96.02
103.01
3.77
4.62
5.28
5.47
118.78
128.05
119.80
122.92
123.79
117.28
114.50
110.84
116.31
116.35
109.70
109.38
109.65
122.43
132.66
5.26
5.20
123.19
123.70
122.18
125.86
134.75
138.09
134.08
5.52
5.54
5.66
5.46
5.03
4.93
5.05
5.65
5.54
5.57
5.95
6.06
6.28
5.99
5.97
6.28
6.31
6.32
5.63
5.12
Earningsprice ratio
8.90
10.79
12.03
13.46
12.66
11.96
12.53
13.24
NOTE.—AH data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange {NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $110.7 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $57.9 billion in
fiscal 1981.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
400
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Budget
receipts
Period
Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982"
1983 (estimates):
Mid-Session Review, July 1982 l
Second Concurrent Resolution,
1982 2
,
207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
646.5
665.9
Budget
surplus or
deficit (— )
Off-budget
outlays
Total
surplus or
deficit (-)
Federal debt (end of period)
Gross
Held by the
public
48.8
-27.7
59.6
-57.9
110.7
8.1
7.3
1.8
8.7
10.4
12.5
14.2
21.0
17.3
-23.4
-14.9
-6.1
53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
-78.9
-128.0
437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
929.3
761.5
-115.0
14.9
- 129.9
1,273.5
1,048.4
769.8
-103.9
-23.4
14.8
4.7
-45.2
66.4
-13.0
-44.9
.1
1.4
October 1,
1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.
* In May, Congress voted to make its first budget resolution automatically serve as a second reso-
32
Budget
outlays
lution if no further action was taken. Since no action was taken, the First Concurrent Resolution of
June 23, 1982 automatically became the Second Concurrent Resolution on October 1, 1982.
sources: Department of the Treasury ana Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In fiscal year 1982, budget receipts were $18.5 billion higher than in fiscal 1981 and budget outlays were $71.2
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
400
BUDGET RECEIPTS
300
200
200
7
OTHER RECEIPTS
100
100
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES
I
I
600
600
BUDGET OUTLAYS
500
500
400
400
NONDEFENSE
300
300
200
200
100
100
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1981
1983
FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
budget outlays
Budget r iceipts
Nation al defense
Period
Total
Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 >>
1983 *
207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
646.5
Individual
income
taxes
94.7
103.2
119.0
122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.6
298.1
293.8
Corporation
Other
Total
taxes
32.2
36.2
38.6
40.6
41.4
8.5
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
58.3
80.4
91.4
105.7
116.1
125.0
34.0
143.0
158.6
179.8
208.4
252.6
270.4
294.4
1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.
Total
230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
761.5
76.6
74.5
-
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.7
187.4
221.5
Defense,
military
75.1
73.2
77.6
84.9
87.9
21.9
95.6
103.0
115.0
132.8
156.0
182.9
215.9
International
affairs
4.7
4.1
5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.9
6.1
10.7
11.1
10.0
12.1
Health and
income
security
Interest
80.0
90.4
104.8
134.3
158.9
41.0
174.5
187.4
207.1
248.3
291.6
322.8
337.8
20.6
22.8
28.0
30.9
34.5
7.2
38.0
44.0
52.6
64.5
82.6
100.8
111.1
Other
48.8
53.9
51.6
66.5
76.1
21.5
85.7
105.9
107.5
117.3
112.2
107.4
79.0
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the second quarter of 1982, Federal receipts rose $7.1 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $8.3 billion,
yielding a deficit of $119.6 billion. In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose
$34.6 billion; receipts data are incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
- 300
50
50
SURPLUS
0
0
DEFICIT
—50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
1974
1975
1977
1979
1978
CALENDAR
1981
1980
1982
YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Governme it receipts
Period
Total
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Federal (jovernment expenditur ss
Contributions for
social
insurance
Total
Purchases
of goods
and
services
Transfer
payments
Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
govern-
Net
interest
paid
Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises
or deficit
Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
Fiscal year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
365.9
414.3
480.9
525.2
614.7
166.3
186.5
222.6
250.2
291.8
58.9
67.3
76.1
70.1
70.9
24.5
27.2
29.2
34.6
55.7
116.2
133.3
153.1
170.4
196.3
411.2
450.3
495.6
576.9
666.6
139.8
150.4
164.2
189.8
218.0
169.9
182.2
201.8
239.4
279.2
66.4
74.7
79.1
86.6
90.1
28.5
33.6
40.6
50.6
66.2
6.9
9.8
9.8
10.5
13.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
-45.4
-36.1
-14.8
-51.9
-51.9
Calendar year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
375.2
431.6
493.6
540.7
628.2
170.1
194.9
230.6
257.5
298.1
61.6
71.3
74.2
70.3
67.3
25.0
28.1
29.4
38.9
58.5
118.5
137.2
159.5
174.1
204.3
421.1
461.0
509.7
602.1
688.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
172.8
185.6
209.2
251.4
286.6
67.5
77.3
80.5
88.7
87.7
29.1
35.2
42.4
8.2
9.5
9.2
11.7
13.1
.0
.0
.0
-.0
.0
-45.9
-29.5
16.1
-61.4
-60.0
13.6
12.3
12.2
13.7
13.0
13.6
12.7
11.6
13.6
.0
.0
-73.1
-65.2
.0
.0
.2
-39.7
-40.5
-58.0
-101.7
1980:
III
IV
542.4
574.6
260.1
274.4
68.0
72.8
40.2
47.7
174.0
179.8
615.4
639.9
193.3
207.0
266.3
271.9
88.9
92.7
1981:
I
II
Ill
IV
620.0
627.0
640.2
625.7
286.4
297.0
307.9
300.9
76.1
65.6
68.4
59.1
57.5
61.5
57.8
57.2
199.9
202.8
206.1
208.4
659.7
667.5
698.2
727.4
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
274.0
276.7
295.1
300.7
90.2
90.6
86.3
83.6
609.9
617.0
299.9
305.8
296.9
46.5
45.2
48.7
49.8
53.2
214.9
216.2
217.5
728.3
736.6
771.2
249.7
244.3
257.5
303.2
312.8
326.9
83.0
85.0
84.2
1982: I
II
IIP
Sources: Department of Commerce {Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,
and Office of Management and Budget.
34
53.1
71.9
53.3
56.0
66.3
68.3
74.0
79.0
79.6
82.8
88.9
J
2
.0
.0
— 118.4
-119.6
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]
Consum r prices (imadjusted)
Indu strial prod action (se£ sonally adju sted)
Period
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
United
States '
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
160.1
172.1
185.9
202.5
221.0
243.5
273.9
205.8
224.9
243.0
252.3
261.3
282.3
296.2
178.9
196.1
214.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7
144.2
150.4
155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
186.4
186.8
218.1
255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4
216.5
252.4
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9
283.0
285.4
286.7
300.7
299.8
299.8
347.1
350.3
352.4
189.2
190.1
190.7
497.5
506.0
511.1
487.9
493.0
496.1
288.7
292.1
295.8
297.5
301.5
304.5
306.1
307.6
309.2
300.7
299.8
300.4
302.9
303.8
303.8
301.5
303.8
356.0
359.6
363.8
368.2
371.1
373.7
374.7
375.9
192.3
192.8
193.1
194.0
195.2
197.1
197.6
197.3
197.9
517.7
524.4
529.1
533.9
539.8
545.2
553.4
563.4
571.3
499.0
499.1
503.5
513.6
517.3
518.9
518.9
519.0
518.7
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
140.3
148.5
152.2
157.7
166.0
162.7
164.8
163.9
182.0
189.7
201.1
217.7
232.5
239.3
139
149
152
154
161
160
157
137.1
149.1
152.0
154.1
161.8
162.3
160.0
127.6
143.5
145.1
147.9
157.6
166.5
162.6
114.3
117.4
123.0
127.0
131.7
123.1
118.2
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
1981: Oct
Nov
Dee
149.1
146.3
143.4
160.0
157.4
155.3
246.7
246.4
244.4
160
160
162
161
160
158
154.7
163.6
158.9
121.8
119.9
119.1
279.9
280.7
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May "
June p
July '.
Aug*
Sept"
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
138.8
138.1
137.3
153.8
153.5
151.6
149.3
151.6
147.5
143.0
146.7
244.1
244.4
245.1
240.7
236.4
241.8
242.1
156
156
157
156
159
157
152
152
160
163
163
161
160
157
151
157
156.7
164.1
161.4
161.3
160.4
154.0
158.6
127.5
118.6
119.3
119.7
119.8
120.6
118.4
120.0
1
246.8
272.4
281.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
292.8
293.3
Italy
United
Kingdom
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International
Economic Indicators.
Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Mer handise expc rts '
Period
Total
domestic
and
foreign
exports
Total 2
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
Merch andise trade balance
Merc handise im] orts
Ge leral import s 3
Domestic exports
Manufactured
goods
Total 2
Exports
Food,
beverages, and
tobacco
Crude
materials and
fuels
Manufactured
goods
Total
(c.i.f.
value)
892
827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546
2,672
2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831
4,602
4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427
9,240
8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415
11,873
11,971
13,127
12,826
11,414
12,584
11,527
12,402
10,337
13,219
12,899
10,982
14,111
12,434
22,779
22,317
24,194
23,568
20,699
23,870
19,900
21,237
18,165
21,509
22,259
20,449
24,578
21,580
less
imports
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
-372
762
-688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020
-1,065
148
-1,440
-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030
]"la.s. valu
Monthly average:
1974*
1975*
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*
1980
8,174
8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386
8,053
8,842
9,456
9,912
11,753
14,869
18,036
1,269
1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534
1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810
5,294
5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991
8,547
8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406
Customs value
1981
1981:
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
19,473
19,551
19,163
19,153
18,885
18,737
18,704
18,602
17,843
18,218
18,822
18,027
17,498
17,387
19,075
19,108
18,733
18,751
18,377
18,350
18,341
18,127
17,441
17,807
18,386
17,638
17,177
16,651
2,767
2,772
2,920
2,675
2,515
2,279
2,482
2,673
2,506
2,478
2,421
1,896
2,162
1,909
2,752
2,795
2,863
2,872
2,934
3,076
3,434
3,151
2,898
2,912
2,797
2,617
2,642
2,832
12,857
12,947
12,458
12,590
12,318
12,463
11,876
11,822
11,428
11,837
12,563
12,590
11,882
11,334
21,748
21,274
23,077
22,508
19,746
22,829
19,090
20,349
17,387
20,558
21,310
19,559
23,494
20,644
1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Tota! includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
1,529
1,393
1,583
1,413
1,542
1,340
1,154
1,529
1,435
1,569
1,567
1,389
1,617
1,581
7,739
7,411
7,642
7,468
6,174
8,269
5,845
5,717
5,033
4,906
6,198
6,645
7,168
5,968
-2,275
-1,724
-3,914
-3,356
-861
-4,092
-387
-1,747
-456
-2,340
-2,488
- 1,532
-5,996
-3,257
-3,306
-2,766
-5,031
-4,415
-1,814
-5,134
-1,197
-2,635
-322
-3,291
-3,437
-2,422
-7,080
-4,192
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance.
" Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The surplus on current account increased to $2.1 billion in the second quarter from $1.1 billion in the first quarter.
The merchandise trade deficit fell slightly, to $5.8 billion from $5.9 billion in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10
-10
1982
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (-J-), debits (—)]
Merchandise l z
Period
Exports
Imports
In vestment incorn e 3
Net
balance
Receipts
Payments
Net
Net
military
transactions
transportation
Other
services,
net 3
Balance
on goods
and
services *
Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1
Balance
on
current
account
7,140
-3,881
2,124
-7,186
18,280
-4,613
4,384
-4,998
-4,617 -14,068
-5,030 -14,773
-466
-5,561
1,520
-6,783
4,471
-6,608
71,410
98,306
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237
236,254
70,499
- 103,649
98,041
-124,051
-151,689
-175,813
-211,819
-249,575
-264,143
911
-5,343
9,047
-9,306
30,873
-33,759
27,346
-25,338
-27,889
21,808
27,587
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,129
72,686
85,945
-9,655
-12,084
-12,564
-13,311
-14,217
-21,680
— 32,914
-42,776
-52,908
12,153
15,503
12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,215
29,910
33,037
-2,070
-1,653
-746
559
1,528
621
-2,035
-2,471
-1,541
-3,158
-3,184
-2,792
-2,558
-3,293
-3,125
-2,429
-940
-231
3,184
3,986
4,598
4,711
5,224
5,955
5,690
7,144
7,702
11,021
9,309
22,893
9,382
-9,451
-9,743
5,095
8,303
11,079
1980: HI
IV
55,786
57,856
-59,735
63,046
-3,949
-5,190
17,848
18,877
- 10,485
-11,518
7,363
7,359
-286
-742
-114
-174
1,810
1,879
4,824
3,131
-1,444
-2,195
3,380
936
1981: I
n
m
IV
60,683
60,284
57,694
57,593
-64,995
66,831
-65,539
66,778
-4,312
-6,547
-7,845
-9,185
20,528
21,642
22,048
21,727
-12,405
-13,441
-13,865
-13,198
8,123
8,201
8,183
8,529
-487
-587
61
-528
-495
-139
200
203
1,838
1,981
1,960
1,924
4,667
2,909
2,559
943
-1,422
-1,510
-1,808
-1,870
3,245
1,399
751
-927
IP.
IP
55,780
55,094
61,653
-60,878
-5,873
-5,784
20,890
22,709
-14,029
-15,036
6,861
7,673
167
371
-66
-546
2,047
2,081
3,136
3,794
-2,048
-1,732
1,088
2,062
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982:
1
Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
2
3
36
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $33.9 billion in the second quarter,
compared with $32.7 billion in the first quarter, reflecting activity of International Banking Facilities (IBFs) and the
on-going transfer of U.S. banks' business from offshore branches to their IBFs. Liabilities to private foreigners
reported by U.S. banks increased $24.1 billion, the third consecutive large quarterly increase.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60
60
-20
-40
-60
-60
1974
COUNCIL OE ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[ ncrease/capit ll outflow (— )
Period
Total
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
U.S.
official
reserve
assets l 2
Other U.S.
Government
assets
'
U.S.
private
assets
-17,136
-23,079
12,647
25,356
7,541
7,678
5,106
17,677
-1,375
-1,518
1,257
-987
-16,892
-19,143
15,996
-46,952
8,470
13,464
16,880
39,107
5,361
-2,861
-5,835
8,119
3,109
16,324
22,715
30,988
-904
-1,559
-29,208
-31,924
25,080
31,182
-3,122
1,935
28,202
29,248
366
-3,474
-4,214
3,693
-4,660
3,743
-5,126
5,137
-20,388
-33,643
-35,380
-44,498
-30,717
-57,202
-59,469
-72,746
-98,982
1980: HI
IV
-19,635
-28,512
-1,109
-4,279
1,390
1,154
1981:
-22,796
-21,566
-17,257
-47,677
-4,529
-905
—4
262
1982: I"
-31,201
U".... -34,615
-1,089
-1,132
18,388
34,241
1
Consists of gol 1, special drawir g rights (SDKs , convertible cu Tencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF
2
Quarterly data ire not seasonall ' adjusted.
Other
foreign
assets
15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,460
54,484
77,921
— 2,644
IV
Foreign
official
assets
12,362
23,696
8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,157
39,042
73,136
158
1,467
-849
2,558
-375
732
-1,133
-8,155
5,175
n
m
Total
6,026
10,546
7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
-13,697
15,442
4,785
-22,874
-34,745
-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64,344
-86,026
— 109,294
I
Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net
[increas i/capital inflo\v ( + )] 2
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
drawing
rights
(SDKs)
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
14,378
-2,654
-1,620
5,753
1,139
1,152
1,093
1,093
reserve
assets, net *
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
15,883
16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,074
10,367
-2,465
11,866
25,212
28,870
25,809
3,608
2,219
-2,754
2,605
22,994
26,756
9,988
6,703
-374
9,497
-829
503
-2,144
2,474
30,410
29,582
29,715
30,074
5,032
1,370
-899
577
29,944
30,671
Sources: D epartment of C jmraeree {Burea LI of Economic i naiysis) and De partment of the
Treasurv.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
page
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business
1
2
2
}
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
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