Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1949
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81st Congress, 1st Session
§t Louis Public I/bran
Economic Indicators
OCTOBER
1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
THEODORE J. KBEPS, Staff Director
GROVER W. ENSLBY, Associate Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINTJRESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House oj Representatives oj the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
committee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.
11 for FRASER
Digitized
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmittal
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,
Chairman.
^^^vCt^,
Vice Chairman.
/
111
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
Farm Income
,
Personal Consumption Expenditures
,
Consumer Credit
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
iv
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Economic activity changed little between the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Inventories were liquidated at a
less rapid rate, while other business investment remained at about the same level. Consumer income
and expenditures dropped moderately.
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) J
1949,2nd Quarter
TOTAL
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+)
(Gross National Product)
CONSUMERS
Transfer payments"
CONSUMER
SAVING
INCOME
^EXPENDITURES!
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT
( Federal, state and local)
CASH
DEFICIT
"Transfer payments
1949, 3rd
TOTAL
Quarter
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
(Gross National Product)
CONSUMERS
Transfer payments.*.
CONSUMER
SAVING
INCOME
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
( Federal, state and local)
**
CASH
DEFICIT
ansfer payments-'
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1949, APPENDIX A.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices rose moderately in August, mainly because of a rise in food prices. Apparel and
housefurnishings prices dropped again for the tenth successive month. Other prices rose a little.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
1943
1940
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average
1948: August
September
October
November...
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
All items
.
99 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171.2
174 5
174. 5
173 6
172. 2
171 4
170 9
169. 0
169 5
169. 7
169 2
169. 6
168 5
168.8
Food
95 2
96. 6
105 5
123. 9
138 0
136. 1
139 1
159. 6
193 8
210. 2
216 6
215. 2
211 5
207. 5
205 0
204 8
199. 7
201 6
202 8
202 4
204. 3
201 7
202. 6
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100 5
101. 7
106 3
124. 2
129 7
138. 8
145 9
160. 2
185 8
198. 0
199 7
201 0
201 6
201 4
200 4
196 5
195 1
193 9
192 5
191 3
190 3
188 5
187 4
Rent
104 3
104. 6
106 2
108. 5
108 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117.4
117 7
118. 5
118 7
118. 8
119 5
119 7
119. 9
120 1
120. 3
120 4
120. 6
120. 7
120. 8
Fuel, electricity; and
refrigeration
House fur*
nishings
99 0
99. 7
102 2
105. 4
107 7
109. 8
110. 3
112.4
121. 1
133.9
136 8
137. 3
137. 8
137. 9
137 8
138 2
138. 8
138 9
137. 4
135 4
135. 6
135 6
135.8
101. 3
100. 5
107 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159.2
184. 4
195. 8
196 3
198. 1
198. 8
198. 7
198. 6
196. 5
195. 6
193. 8
191. 9
189 5
187. 3
186. 8
184. 8
Miscellaneous
100 7
101. 1
104 0
110. 9
115 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
139. 9
149.9
152 4
152. 7
153 7
153. 9
154 0
154 1
154. 1
154. 4
154. 6
154. 5
154. 2
154 3
154. 8
WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices in September averaged slightly higher than in August. Farm and food prices
fluctuated considerably during the month, ending substantially lower. Industrial prices advanced
during the month.
PERCENT OF. 1926 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
200
60
1949
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR."
COU'NCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1941 monthty average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948- August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
_
March
April.
i ^ «,avj _ _
M
June
JulyAugust
September *_ _ _
Week ended:
September 6
13
20__,.
27 2
October
4
1
2
_
„
_„
. _ _.
__ _
- _ _ _
_
_
_
___ —
_
_ _
„
_
_ _
Estimate based on change in weekly index.
Data became available after chart^was prepared.
Source: Department of Labor.
Farm products
Foods
Other than
farm products and foods
87. 3
98 8
121. 1
112 9
152. 1
165. 1
169. 8
168. 9
165 4
164. 0
162.4
160. 6
158. 1
158 4
156. 9
155 7
154. 5
153. 6
153 0
154. 1
82. 4
105 9
148. 9
140 1
181. 2
188. 3
191. 5
189. 9
183. 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
168. 3
171. 5
170. 5
171. 2
168. 8
166. 2
162. 3
163. 3
82 7
99 6
130. 7
112 9
168. 7
179. 1
189 8
186. 9
178 2
174. 3
170. 2
165. 8
161. 5
162. 9
162. 9
163 8
162.4
161. 3
160. 6
161. 7
89. 0
95 5
109. 5
105 6
135. 2
151.0
153. 3
153. 6
153. 4
153. 6
153. 1
152.9
151.8
150.7
148.9
146.8
145. 6
145. 1
145. 1
146.0
153.0
154 6
154. 0
152. 4
152. 5
162. 1
1 65. 6
363. 1
159. 8
161. 3
161.0
164.4
163.2
158. 9
159. 6
144. 9
145. 4
145. 5
145. 3
145.3
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Farm prices rose from August to September, reflecting chiefly an increase in prices of meat animals.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
^
300
\
PRICES RECEIVED
300
250
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
PARITY RATIO*
100
50
I
1939 40
I
I
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
I
I
I
I
J F M A M J
48
I I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
1947
1948
I
I
J A
I
t
S 0
I
I
N D
1949
* RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Prices paid by
Prices
farmers (includ- Parity ratio 8
received
ing interest
by farmers * and
taxes) *
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August _.„
September
..
-
-
_
-
. „..„
.
.. .. .
_
„.
77
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
293
290
277
271
268
251
250
249
247
247
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
117
116
111
109
108
268
258
261
260
256
252
249
245
249
248
245
246
246
245
245
244
243
242
108
105
106
106
104
103
102
101
103
1
August 1909-July 1914=100.
*a 1910-14= 100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
I n
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices of industrials and utilities reached new 1949 peaks in mid-September but ended the
month slightly below those peaks. Railroads rose through the month.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175
175
150
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index l
Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
1948
1948: August
September
October
November
December1949: January _ .
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
__ .
Spntftmber
Week ended:
Sentember 7
14___
21
_
..«-
...-.
Industrials
Railroads
Utilities
94. 2
69.4
139. 9
124. 4
127. 1
125.7
127.8
120.4
119.4
121.0
117.2
118. 0
118. 5
117.7
112. 0
117. 8
121. 9
123. 8
94.8
71. 3
143.4
130. 6
133. 5
131.7
134.3
126.4
125.5
127.3
122.7
123. 7
124. 2
123.4
117. 0
123.4
128. 2
130.3
74. 7
66. 1
143. 0
114. 7
119. 7
120.4
120.9
108. 8
105.8
105. 9
99.6
97. 4
97. 1
95.8
88. 4
90. 6
94. 6
95. 1
98. 6
61. 3
120.2
96.2
97.3
97.3
97.4
94.2
92.9
94. 2
94.4
95. 3
96. 1
95.3
93.0
95.4
98. 5
100.0
122.8
125. 3
123.0
124. 2
129. 1
132. 1
129. 4
130. 6
94. 1
96. 0
94. 3
96. 1
99.6
100. 1
99.8
100.3
28
_
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Digitized for97073—49FRASER
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Civilian employment dropped more than 500,000 from August to September, largely because of a
decrease in agricultural employment. However, the labor force dropped by nearly 900,000 as
young people returned to school, causing a decrease of -about 300,000 in unemployment.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70
UNEMPLOYMENT
NONAGRICULTURAL
i i i s >
UNEMPLOYMENT— MAGNIFIED
1944
1946
1947
EMPLOYMENT
I
{
I
!
I
SCALE
1948
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE-
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Civilian employment1
Period
1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average.-.
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average...
1948: AugustSeptember
October
November
December
_
1949: January
February
March
__
April
May „
June
July
August
September
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
64, 511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64, 866
65, 278
65, 104
64, 222
Total
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59, 619
59, 720
59, 947
59,411
In nonagricultural
industries
36, 140
45, 010
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50, 073
51, 441
51, 254
In agriculture
9, 610
8, 950
8,320
8, 266
7,973
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
6,763
6, 993
7,393
7,820
8,974
9,696
9,647
8,507
8, 158
Armed
forces
370
11, 260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1, 325
1,366
1,391
1,414
1,453
1,468
1, 508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
1,468
1,459
Unemployment
9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
2, 664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3,778
4,095
3,689
3,351
1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
N<ONAGRICULTURAL EMPLO1f MENT
- SELECTED INDUSTRIES
In A ugust, employment in industries manufacturing durabh3 goods increased slightly for the first time since last
fall In nondurables, the August increase was sizable. Co istructic>n employment continued at high levels.
MILL IONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
9.0
MILLI ONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
8.0
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
1947
8.5
\
^^^^U——^ "~ ""*" ^ -
•-*>—*.-• -~~~~
7.5
jD^0""X"OSV*VCv
1948
80
***x_
7.0
1949
^^^X.
6.5
7.5
"~^—
1949
6.0
7.0
1
0
J
1
F
1
M
1
A
1
M
1
J
1
J
1
A
I
S
1
O
0 "~
1
N
D
3.0
1
J
1
F
1
A
1
M
1
J
1
J
1
A
1
S
1
O
1
N
^
D
TRADE
2.5
10.0
'^^-^^^
^^^'-^~""~
'94\
""""---.
95
1949
^°^^ '''
^\
^^^^
1.5
1
M
10.5
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION
2.0
ISF^^--'/'
1947
9.0
t(^^^>^^^^
f
1948
,''
s''
______
-f-^
1947
8.5
1.0
0
"~"
J
1
1
F
1
M
1
A
1
M
1
J
1
J
1
A
1
S
1
O
0 "~
1
N
D
J
1
1
F
1
M
1
A
1
M
1
J
1
J
50URCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1
A
1
S
I
O
1
N
O
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers J ]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
194G monthly average
_ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average _
__ _ _
1948: July
_
_ „
_ _
August
September
October
_
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
_ _ _ _ _
May
June3
Julv 3
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
August
Total
10, 078
17, 381
14,461
15,247
15, 286
15, 155
15, 400
15, 617
15, 514
15, 368
15, 174
14, 782
14, 649
14, 475
14, 177
13, 877
13, 885
13, 755
14, 088
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Contract
construction
(22)
()
(2)
8,373
8, 315
8,232
8, 271
8, 360
8, 393
8, 352
8, 258
8, 044
7,923
7, 819
7, 656
7, 441
7,396
7, 255
7,305
(22)
(2)
()
6, 874
6, 970
6, 923
7, 129
7, 257
7, 121
7,016
6, 916
6, 738
6, 726
6, 656
6, 521
6, 436
6, 489
6, 500
6, 783
1, 150
1, 567
1, 661
1, 982
2, 165
2, 348
2, 384
2, 369
2,334
2, 287
2,200
2, 016
1, 926
1, 947
2, 036
2, 137
2, 205
2,279
2,333
Trade
6, 705
7, 322
8, 815
9, 196
9,491
9, 363
9, 366
9, 522
9, 654
9, 807
10, 273
9, 388
9, 292
9,310
9, 478
9, 342
9, 327
9, 205
9, 212
Finance
and
service
4,610
5, 187
5, 994
6, 427
6, 515
6, 608
6, 592
6, 574
6, 531
6, 503
6,481
6, 454
6, 447
6,469
6,525
6, 567
6, 603
6, 626
6, 611
Government Transportation and
^ (Federal,
public
State, local)
utilities
3, 987
6, 049
5, 607
5, 454
,613
, 504
, 533
, 668
, 694
, 685
, 994
, 764
, 737
, 761
, 775
, 813
, 772
, 707
5, 815
2, 912
3, 619
4,023
4, 122
4, 151
4, 212
4, 213
4, 189
4, 188
4, 1 66
4, 158
4,054
4, 024
3, 975
3, 991
4, 021
4, 0,30
4, 010
4, 000
Mining
845
917
852
943
981
974
1, 006
1, 007
1, 000
999
1,002
991
986
981
984
974
970
949
968
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, arid personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricuitural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department
of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at wrork because of industrial disputes; and
which
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Not available.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly hours in both durable and nondurable manufacturing rose in August, according to prelimnary data. The rise in nondurables was a continuation of a movement toward longer work weeks that
started in May.
HOUF*S PER WEEK
-HOURS PER WEEK
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
42
42
40
—vy^l^AA/vv
40
V^A.
^"""^Hr\s~
>C-
y
38
38
36
36
34
34
0
1 M
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 |
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1
1948.
1947
1 1 1 I 1I I 1 1 1 I
1949
1 11 1 11 1 1 M
1
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1
1948
M
1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1949
1950
RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
42
42
40
40
38
38
*
36
v/~^K/~
34
0
,
1 1 1 M ! 1 | | | 1
0
1950
'
i i | i i i i i i ii
1947
'
-Art^A^^/
-^-—'
^>/
34
,
,
i,,,,7
1949
1948
36
0
i i i i i 1 t t i ii
1 11111 111 11
1947
1948
1950
i l l t i 1 i I l It
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Manufacturing r
Period
1939 monthly average __
1943 monthly average.
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: July
August
September
October
November _ _ _ _
December
1949: January __
__
February
_
March
April
M
__ _ _ _ _ _
j_ a yj _
June 3
Julv 3
August
1950
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Hours per week, selected industries
1
2
3
l i I t 1 1 l l 1 1 1
Total
_
_
37.7
44. 9
40. 4
40. 4
40. 1
39. 8
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
40. 1
39. 5
39. 4
39. 1
38.4
38. 6
38. 8
38. 8
39. 0
Durable
goods
(2)
(2)
(2)
40. 6
40 5
39. 9
40 6
40. 0
40 7
40. 4
40 7
40. 1
39 9
39 5
39 0
39. 0
39 2
38. 8
39 1
:
Retail trade,
Building
mer- construction
Nondurable general
chandise
goods
(2)
(2)
(2)
40. 1
39 6
39. 6
39 5
39. 6
39 1
39. 2
39 3
38. 7
38 8
38 6
37 6
38 1
38 5
38 8
38 9
(2)
(2)
(2)
36 3
36 6
37. 6
37 4
36. 3
36 0
35. 8
37 5
36. 5
36 3
36 1
36 6
36 3
36 8
37 4
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
37 3
37. 8
37 8
37 6
37 3
36 4
37 8
37 0
36 5
36 1
36 4
37 2
37 1
37 1
(2)
For production and related workers.
Not available.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.
WORK STOPPAGES
With no work stoppages of important size in August, man-days of idleness continued at a low level.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I5
15
939
1940 1941 I94E 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948
1947
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
Number of stoppages
Period
1939
1941
1942
1943
1944
.. 1945
1946
___ _
1947
1948
_
. -__
1948: July
_ _ .._
August
September
October
November
December
1949' January l 1
February
March *
April*
May *
June l *
July
August i
1
Beginning
in
period
2, 613
4,288
2,968
3,752
4,956
4,750
4,985
3,693
3,419
394
355
299
256
216
144
225
225
275
400
450
375
300
375
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
In effect
during
month
614
603
553
468
388
283
400
350
400
500
600
550
525
550
Workers involved in
stoppages
Beginning
in
period
(thousands)
1, 171
2,363
840
1,981
2, 116
3,467
4,600
2, 170
1,960
218
143
158
110
111
40
70
80
500
175
250
575
110
150
Man-days idle during
period
In effect
during
month
(thousands)
Monthly
average
(thousands)
307
232
267
194
189
93
110
120
540
225
320
660
225
250
1,484
1,921
349
1, 125
727
3, 169
9,667
2,883
2,842
2,670
2, 100
2,540
2,060
1,910
713
800
650
3, 600
1,800
3,200
4,600
2,100
2,000
Percent of
estimated
working time
0.28
.32
.05
. 15
.09
.47
1.43
. 41
.37
.36
. 26
.33
. 27
. 26
. 09
. 11
. 10
.46
.25
.45
. 61
. 31
.26
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production more than recovered the July drop in August and increased slightly further in
September, according to preliminary estimates. The increase in manufactures, chiefly nondurables, was
almost offset by a drop in minerals.
250 -
250
200 -
200
150 -
150
100 -
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
SOURCE:BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total=100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
1935-39 monthly average __
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: August
September
October
November..
December
1949: January
February
March.
April
Mav
June
Julv.
August *_
September l
10
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
goods ble goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
191
192
195
195
192
191
189
184
179
174
169
162
170
171
100
258
214
177
194
198
197
199
202
201
199
198
196
193
184
179
175
168
177
180
100
360
274
192
220
225
223
225
231
229
231
227
225
223
212
201
194
185
194
195
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
100
176
166
165
172
177
177
178
179
178
173
175
173
168
162
161
161
155
164
168
100
132
137
134
149
155
159
156
158
161
156
149
149
136
148
145
134
123
128
118
Manufactures
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
84
85
87
87
87
86
85
84
81
76
74
70
73
74
Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
82
83
84
83
81
82
81
79
76
75
75
73
77
79
15
20
21
21
23
24
24
24
24
25
24
23
23
21
23
22
20
19
20
18
N
O
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Scheduled production of steel in September ran above August rates, though there was a slight
drop during the last week. Electric power production reached the highest level since February 1949
and was just above that of a year ago. Bituminous coal mining was practically at a standstill with the
strike in effect. Cars and trucks continued to roll off of assembly lines at near record numbers.
MILLIONS OF TONS
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
STEEL
ELECTRIC POWER
1949
j
F
M
i
A
i
M
i
J
J
A
i
i
S
I
O
N
M I L L I O N S OF SHORT TONS
3.0
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
I
I
S
AMERICAN
N
D
THOUSANDS
160
S
SOURCES:
I
0
IRON AND STEEL
O
N
INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC I N S T I T U T E , DEPARTMENT OF THf INTERIOR, WARDS AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.
Steel
(thousands of
net tons)
Electric power,
by utilities
(millions of
kilowatt-hours)
Bituminous
coal
(thousands of
short tons) 1
Weekly average:
1947
1948
1 637
1, 700
4 821
5, 300
2 008
1, 906
90, 860
100, 670
Week ended:
1948: Sept. 4
11
18
25
Oct. 2
9
1, 716
1, 703
1 732
1, 732
1, 738
1, 757
5,
5,
5
5,
5
5,
470
166
426
461
449
482
2, 042
2, 236
2 034
2,036
2, 009
2,056
96, 484
74, 744
88, 531
92, 230
115, 469
113,312
1, 591
1, 552
1, 597
1, 589
12 560
151
5,
5,
5,
5,
2
5
544
258
579
556
521
1,342
1, 196
1, 400
338
2
304
138,
117,
152,
150,
143,
Period
1949: Sept. 3
10
17
24
Oct
1
8
D
_
__
_
Cars and
trucks
(number)
2
796
703
228
815
817
1
2
Daily average for week.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of most durables recovered their July drops in August. Output of machinery continued at its
July rate.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
IRON AND STEEL
250
200
150
100
r\j
( M l 1 M
40
42
/***-* IN/
- ^ s X ^V
1 1
44- 46
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M
48
1 1
1 Ii 1 1 11 1 111
1947
250
r\
V
MONTHLY AVERAGE
SEASONALLY
200
*"V
150
1 M 1 1 1 It 1i 1
1948
100
>*1
H M i f i | i i
40
1949
42
/"-
250
200
1 50
1 00
V
~-S ^~^\\
V
250
200
150
/ M l
42
M M 1
46 48
1 I I i I 1 1 1 1 11
1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 i
1 i 11 1 1i 1 I 1 1
1947
1948
1949
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
SE
300
/
40
350
j
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
44
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
MACHINERY
350
ADJUSTED
1 1I11 1 1 1 111
44 46 48
1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1
1947
1948
1 1 i 1 I 1 1M 1 1
100
A
/M
A
1
i i i 1 1i I I
40 42
1949
44 46
48
r\V
^^XXN.
V"
1 I 1 1 i 1 1 1 1
II
1947
1 1 1 i 1 1 11 1 1i
1 1 1 M
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M .
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: July
August
September.
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July 1 1
August
1
_
_
__
__ _
_
..
Nonferrous
metals and
products
Lumber and
products
Machinery
100
208
183
150
195
208
100
129
109
131
143
145
100
443
343
240
276
277
100
267
204
157
187
193
201
207
214
221
224
223
142
148
143
147
145
143
269
271
273
277
276
277
185
186
192
192
187
184
228
232
233
219
204
177
156
178
129
123
129
126
126
123
115
128
268
262
252
240
232
225
216
216
183
185
183
167
145
133
128
142
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
12
1 11I 11
1949
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Most nondurobles in August were back to June production rates. Textiles more than recovered their
vacation drop, while chemicals made no recovery.
PERCE MT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300
300
MONTHLY AVERAGE
200
100
0
J
1
1
40
"
1
1
42
1 I
1
44
46
1 J.
48
200
^T~v"-v^
i
1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 II
1947
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 I!
1948
100
II i
0
A/
v
J
!
1
40
1949
r-~vH
1 1 1 J J_ 1 1
42
44
46
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 11
48
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
1949
400
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
A
A
300
300
•*
200
200
0
1948
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
400
100
1 1 1 t 11 11 1 11
1 1 1 1 i I i 11 11
1947
^—
i i i i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
48
- * "^•—^ ** - "
^v^.
/
/
100
I I 1 I 1 1 1 1 t 1 i
1 1 1 1 1 1 I!
1947
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
0
1
1
40
1949
1
|
42
|
|
44
1
|
46
|
48
II
1 i 11 I l 1 i l
1 1 1 I!
1947
1 1 1 1
II
1 1 1 1 1 1 II
1948
1 1!
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthlv average .
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average. _ .
1948: July
August
September
October. __
November
December _
1949: January
February
March
April _ _ _ _ «
May
June
July l
August
3
Digitized for 97073—49
FRASER
_ _
_
_ «_
_
_ __
_..____
_
__ _
__
Petroleum
and coal
products
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
154
166
168
167
164
156
217
221
207
217
227
231
160
156
163
161
159
158
251
259
257
255
257
257
160
157
142
129
123
127
121
139
228
221
213
209
207
202
197
200
160
162
162
162
162
165
162
163
257
250
245
237
234
231
226
226
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
13
NEW CONSTRUCTION
While new public construction held constant in September, the value of private construction rose slightly. Total
new construction in August and September equaled the figure for the corresponding months a year ago.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
2,000
WON fHLY AVERAGE
•::-:'-':'-
1,500
:^::::-;
P
1,000
1%
j
1839
m
1
1i1 11
'•<::-:
1942 1944 i946 1947 1948
1949
1947
*INCLUOeS PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average__
1946 monthly average
_
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average. _ _.
_ _ _
1948: July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January.
_
_ _
February
__ _
March. _
April
May
June
Julv
August 2
September
1
2
Total new
construction
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1, 565
1, 874
1,934
1, 901
1, 814
1, 646
1,447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1,378
1,585
1, 745
1, 841
1, 893
1,902
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
688
932
1, 214
1,423
1,454
1,427
1,355
1,256
1, 129
1,002
905
951
997
1,117
1,239
1,309
1,335
1,345
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor,
14
176
110
45
265
438
602
707
720
707
670
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
650
660
680
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
716
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
531
552
587
639
659
675
665
Federal,
State, and
local!
208
867
193
184
262
351
451
480
474
459
390
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
532
558
557
NEW HOUSING STARTS
Continued high volume of rental construction helped the number of nonfarm housing starts to rise in
August to 98,000 or 12 percent above August 1948. Preliminary data for September indicate the
level will continue at about the August rate.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
125
75
50
25
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February
March
April
May
_
_
June
July
August
September
October
_
November
December
_ _
iAC*J
_ _
__
_ _
_
_ _ _ _ _
Total
Monthly average
__ __
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70, 750
77, 600
1949
50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
1
100, 000
1
96, 000
1
98, 000
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Nonagricultura! business firms reported in a recent SEC-Commerce survey expected expenditures of
$I7.S billion on new plant and equipment for !949. Actual expenditures for 1st half of this year
were I percent above 1st half of 1948 but estimate for 2nd half was about 14 percent under actual
expenditures for the corresponding period last year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
UTILITIES
1939
1941
1945
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
Total *
Manufacturing
Mining
Transportation
Railroad
1939
1941
_
1945
1947
_ _
1948 3
1949
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter __
Second quarter _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _ _ .
1949: First quarter. _ _ _ _ _ _
Second quarter
Third quarter 3 3 _
_ _
Fourth quarter
1
2
3
_
_
__ __
__
_ __
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
. _ _
5, 200
8, 190
6, 630
16, 180
19, 230
17, 920
16, 560
19, 760
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
21, 640
17, 840
18, 640
18, 200
17, 000
1, 930
3,400
3, 210
7,460
8, 340
7, 120
7,480
9, 160
7,200
8, 560
8, 360
9, 280
7,400
7, 520
7,080
6,480
380
680
440
690
800
740
720
840
720
800
800
880
760
760
720
680
280
560
550
910
1, 320
1,360
920
1, 200
1,080
1, 240
1, 320
1, 640
1,440
1,520
1, 360
1, 120
Electric and
gas utilities
Other
280
340
320
800
700
540
800
760
720
760
680
680
520
560
560
520
480
710
630
1, 900
2, 680
3, 100
2,000
2,480
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,400
2,720
3, 120
3, 240
3,320
Commercial
and miscellaneous 2
1, 850
2,490
1,480
4, 430
5,390
5,080
4, 640
5,360
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,760
5,040
5, 160
5, 200
4,960
Excludes agriculture.
Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business, as reported by business firms, for third and fourth quarters.
NOTE.-—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and
other data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
16
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Total proceeds from new corporate security issues more than doubled in the 2nd quarter reflecting a rise in
both fixed and working capital financing.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0
3.0
1939
SOURCE:
1943
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
__
_
__
Plant and
equipment
Working
capital
Retirement
. of debt and
stock »
529
287
1,475
1,689
1, 617
1, 604
81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,392
43
35
159
529
852
1,035
39
42
111
291
296
357
448
210
1,206
869
469
212
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_ _
1,374
2,311
884
2,000
692
1,654
192
347
490
310
1948* First quarter
.
Second quarter. Third quarter
Fourth quarter
.
1,614
1,663
1,267
1,873
1,400
1,353
1,045
1, 767
845
1,080
764
1,451
555
274
281
316
214
309
221
105
1,056
2,311
850
1,968
699
1,615
152
353
206
343
1949: First quarter _ 2 .
Second quarter
_
_
_
_
- _ _
1
2
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
17
INVENTORIES AND SALES
August soles of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers showed more than seasonal upturns. The trend
of inventory liquidation in recent months continued through August in manufacturing, but was slackened in
department stores, while wholesalers added to their stocks.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
RETAIL
WHOLESALE
20
20
INVEC T(DRIES
\.'-*
\
,»•
INVE N1 ORIES
1 0
y
te^&
0
1 1 ( 1
40
42
,„
46
S/ L
"£r
s^ L :s
i in 1 1 i 1 1
1 1 1 I 1
44
*"" /
1 0
\
48
1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 II
1947
1948
1 1 1 II
i 1 1 1 1 1
0
1
I
!
1
1
1
1
1
Y^^
i i iii 1 i i i i i
1
1947
1949
1948
1 1 1 1 ! 1 II 1 I 1
1949
PERCE MT OF 1935-1939 A V E R A C3E
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
DEPARTMENT STORES
MANUFACTURING
40
400
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
SE
INVE NT ORIES
y \
30
>...'*
/ S /\L :s
^
,
300
v ^
\J?~
X.
.-•*
/
20
1 0
0
./7^
>
i~~
42
44
46
1 00
i l l I i 1 1 1 l ii
48
1947
S OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ]
1948
1 1 11 1 I1 1 1 1 1
0
/J
i i i i i i i r
40
1949
4E
44
46
JJJJjJjJJJJ- I l 1 1 1 1 JLl 1 LL U 1 L I L I I i J. J_
Inventories 1
•-_
_
_. -
_ _ _ _ _
------
_ __
1
2
3
4
5
-_
_
_
-
_
1948
Manufacturing
Retail
Inventories 1
Sales 3
Inventories 1
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1939
1941
_ __1943
1945
.. .
1946
1947
1948
1948- July
August
September
October
November
December
1949' January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August ^
1947
48
3, 174
4, 182
3,684
4, 638
6, 665
8, 653
9,511
9, 177
9,420
9, 581
9,730
9, 714
9, 511
9,464
9, 479
9, 293
9,330
9, 153
9,002
9,090
9,210
2, 505
3, 620
4,273
4,983
6, 601
7, 754
8, 355
8, 630
8, 542
8, 489
8,083
8, 236
8, 158
7,732
7, 680
7, 890
7,422
7,498
7,718
7, 158
7,703
5,557
7, 663
7,361
7, 543
11, 226
13, 221
14, 969
14, 372
14, 490
14, 877
14, 937
15, 027
14, 969
14, 659
14, 479
14, 700
14, 458
14, 139
14, 182
13, 862
13, 866
3, 504
4, 624
5, 310
6,387
8, 399
9, 860
10, 784
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11, 062
10, 615
10, 588
10, 620
10, 767
10, 726
10, 681
10, 555
10, 600
Sales 2
4
11, 465
16, 960
19, 813
18, 353
24, 846
29, 851
34, 106
32, 580
32, 841
33, 380
33, 528
33, 810
34, 066
34, 409
34, 408
34, 223
34, 018
33, 565
33, 250
32, 367
31, 724
5,099
8, 168
12, 820
12, 873
12, 841
17, 076
19, 028
18. 972
19i 652
19, 902
18, 978
19, 648
19, 065
17, 880
18, 175
18, 451
17, 643
17, 741
17, 989
17, 113
18, 824
Book value, end of period.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with previously published data.
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized
18 for FRASER
1949
AND BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FE DERAL RES E R V E SYSTEM
Wholesale
Sales 2
Period
y/INVEJ^ T( )RIES
200
^~s
L ES
11ii11111
40
^^^^
Department stores
Inventories 3
Sales 3
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted
102
131
155
166
213
255
291
285
285
290
290
296
291
278
276
283
280
273
265
256
253
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
311
309
309
308
289
305
295
281
277
294
292
285
280
282
Exports declined somewhat further in August but imports increased by 8 percent, the first substantial
break in the decline in imports that has been going on since March.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
1600
-
1,400 -
1,400
1,200
1,200
-
1,000 -
1,000
800
800
- 600
600 -
400
400
- 200
200 -
1936-38
1943
A M
1946
J
J A S O N D J F M A M J
J A S O N O J
F M A M d
J A S O N D
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
COUNCIL
OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Period
Exports*
Imports *
Excess of
exports
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
247
1,080
877
849
1,278
1, 051
207
282
346
410
478
594
40
798
531
439
801
457
1948: July
August
September
October
November
December
1,019
990
926
1,021
820
1, 285
563
606
560
600
554
720
456
384
366
421
266
565
1, 094
1,032
1, 159
1, 148
1,077
1, 104
897
881
590
568
632
534
539
527
456
491
504
464
527
614
538
578
441
390
1949: January
February
March. 1
April
May
June
July
August
_
__
__
_
1
J
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy,
19
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
Notional income continued to decline in 3rd quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Compensation
of employees held steady, while farm income ( part of proprietors' and rental) showed a significant drop.
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF OOL LARS
250
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATETS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTAL NAT IONAL
INCOfo
^*~+^~~***^^
*\s^*^\^
_J^
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
«—«~^
*^~\
200
P
'?//<
1
•/''m//
''4
y
1 50
'4&&4
!
200
^—^??5^^^^^^^
_^^^^^^T^^
g2SSS»^>^
NET INTEREST:,
'**''«*
M
&>
<-%
^^^ ^"
•• •,*,/
•'//
f
' V
-_
^^****-
i INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT;
PROPRIETORS' AND
RENTAL INCOME
*
*'
^
' "" *^
, ^'/>^
'S ^
<"
S
*
">
A.
>
^
'
'
f
%
«• J^'
-
?*
1
'
* /f
"~
\
'V
"
"'
"
"
'f
**
' '
y
>
r
/,
'
Ss
, ' '
^
'
'
j
ISO
'f
^•mMMlMMM.gt
^~i
^
too
1 00
H
=
-
|
§
H
'COMPENSATION OF! .
[EMPLOYEES!
ss
$£
£$
50
--.
50
~~
-f ~ -_„- i-
_!",.
sr-^t
0
1944
1939
1947
_?£•*
1948
1
1
3
1949
4
i :. i
1
2
f
3
J
4
j j !
1
I
3*
1
4
1
1949
1948
1947
2
O
2
1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted).
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1946___
1947
1948
Total
national
income
72. 5
183.8
179.6
201. 7
226.2
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net/ interest
47.8
121. 2
117.0
127. 6
140.3
14.7
35. 5
41.3
45. 1
49.5
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
3.8
Total
Profits
before
taxes
a5
5.8
24.0
18. 3
25. 6
32.6
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
24.3
23. 6
31.6
34. 8
-0.7
-. 3
-5. 3
-6.0
-2.2
33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5
-4. 5
-2. 0
-3. 3
+ 1.2
28.4
24. 8
24. 3
+ 2.3
+4.7
+ 3.6
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter- 1
Second quarter _
Third quarter 2
1
2
20
215. 1
224.9
230.4
234.3
135. 1
137.7
143. 3
144. 9
48.0
50.4
49. 9
49. 7
3. 6
3. 7
3.9
4. 1
225.3
2 222. 2
217.0
142.5
141.7
141.2
47. 8
46.7
43.6
4.2
4.3
4.3
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
28. 5
33.0
33.3
35.7
2
30.8
29. 5
27. 9
2
CORPORATE PROFITS
According to preliminary estimates for the 3rd quarter, corporate profits were slightly below the 2nd
quarter rate. When allowance is made for inventory valuation adjustment, the decline was more substantial.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4 0
40
1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED).
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
_
_
-
9.8
6.5
24. 3
23.6
31. 6
34.8
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
13. 5
9. 6
12. 5
13. 6
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10. 8
13.9
19. 1
21.2
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.7
5.8
7.0
7.9
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 1
13.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter.. 1 _ _
Second quarter
Third quarter *
_
33.0
35.0
36. 6
34. 5
12.8
13. 7
14. 4
13. 6
20.2
21.3
22.2
20.9
7.6
7.7
7. 9
8.3
12.6
13. 6
14.3
12.6
28.4
24.8
24.3
11.2
9.7
9.6
17.3
15. 1
14.7
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.9
6.6
6.4
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
See p. 20 for profits before
21
PERSONAL INCOME
Total personal income rose about I percent in August. All major components except dividends contributed
to the small increase.
BILLIONS DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
(939
SOURCE:
1944
1947
1948
J A S O N D
1947
1949
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
1948
1949
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
D J F M A M J
I
1950
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
„
_
- ....
-
72.6
165.9
176.9
193. 5
211.9
Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends
and other
and rental and personal
labor income
income
interest
45.7
116.2
111.0
122. 0
135. 1
14. 7
35.5
41.2
45. I
49.5
9.2
10.6
13.2
14.8
16.2
Transfer
payments
3.0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948- June
July
August
September.
October
November
December
1949" January
February
March
April
Mav _ _ _
June
July 1
August
1
_
_ _ __
__
213.4
214. 5
215.4
216. 3
216.3
216.6
217.0
215. 7
212. 9
212.4
212. 5
213. 1
211. 9
209.7
211. 5
134.5
136. 6
138.5
139.7
140. 1
139.5
139. 1
138.6
137. 1
135.6
136.8
137. 1
136. 1
136.3
136.7
51.8
50.8
49. 5
49. 4
49. 0
49. 8
50. 3
49.0
47.2
47. 3
46.3
46. 7
46. 5
44. 2
45.5
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
22
15.9
16. 0
16.3
16.5
16. 8
16.9
16.9
17.0
17. 1
17. 1
17.2
17.3
17.2
17. 1
17.0
11.2
11. 1
11. I
10. 7
10.4
10.4
10. 7
11. 1
11.5
12.4
12.2
12. 0
12. 1
12. 1
12. 3
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Preliminary information for 3rd quarter indicates that disposable personal income dropped about
twice as much as consumer spending, resulting in a reduction in the indicated rate of saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income l
Period
1939-.
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944__
1945
1946
1947
1948
_
. _
... __ ._
_ _
__.
„__
_ __
. _
.
70.2
75.7
92. 0
116.2
131. 6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172.0
190.8
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101. 6
111. 6
123. 1
147. 8
166.9
178.8
2.7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
35.4
28.0
10.3
5. 1
12.0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter.. 2
Second quarter
Third quarter 3
_
_
__
_ _ _
_
_ __
__
_
181.9
189.6
195. 2
196.2
195.0
194.2
190. 4
175.2
178. 7
180. 3
180.9
177.9
178.2
' 176. 5
6.7
10.8
15. 0
15.3
17. 1
16.0
13. 9
1
Income less
2
Preliminary
3
taxes.
estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
23
PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, continued near peak levels in
3rd quarter.
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
ANNUAL R A T E S . S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D
1,200
800
CURRENT DOLLARS
O
1
I
1939
I
1940
I
1941
I
1942
I
1943
I
1944
I
1945
I
1946
I
1947
I
I
1948
1949
3
4
1947
1
I
2
I
3
4
1
1948
1939 _ ..
1940
1941__
1942
1943
1944 _ _
1945
1946
1947 .
1948
... .
_
_
__
3
4
I
1949
Per capita disposable
personal
income l
Current
1948 dollars*
dollars
$536
$923
574
981
691
1,125
-.
1,262
867
970
1,314
_>
1,065
1,405
1,082
1,389
1,342
1, 119
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
Consumers'
price index1
1948 = 100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93.1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
98.0
99.6
101.8
100.7
99.2
99.0
98. 7
1,273
1,248
1948- First quarter
1,296
1,301
Second quarter
1,328
1,305
Third quarter
1,328
1,319
Fourth quarter
_
1,315
1,326
1949: First quarter 4
1,304
Second quarter5 _
1,317
Third quarter
1,290
1,273
1
Income
less
taxes.
3
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
3
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Preliminary estimates.
5
Estimates by Council of jEconomic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
Source: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).
Digitized
24 for FRASER
2
1950
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R , ( E X C E P T AS NOTED).
Period
2
AVERAGE HOURLY EAE1NIN'GS
- SELECTED INDUSTRIES
With many wage contract negotiations lagging, avercige hour y earnings in most industries changed little
n the late summer months.
DOLLA RS
PER
DOLL/1 RS PER
HOUR
HOUR
1.50
1.60
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
NONDURABLE
1.40
1.50
1948
DOLLARS* ^~7*
.£^s~*
1948
1.40
/
/
1.20
1.30
/
CURF ENT
*C=^£
DOLLARS*
1.30
X - >,
^
pX>
^——~^
'"' ^
DOLLARS
S^
CURRI NT
DOLLARS
I.I 0
1.20
O
MANUFACTURING
==riii|
1947
. . i , . 1, i i . i
i i i i i 1 ii iii
1 1 1 1 1 1 | I 1 1 1
1948
1949
1950
0
1.20
2.10
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1
1947
1948
1950
1949
RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE
I.I 0
2.00
f
^
.1.00
1.90
1948 DOLLARS*/"]/
1948
DOLLARS*
r^
l~**y~
.90
1.80
•** /"^^ CURRENT
DOLLARS
.80
1.70
0
M i n i , , . ,7
MIM!
M
1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I
1947
l l I 1 I 1 1 I I 1 1
1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 !
1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
1949
1950
0
^S*^
'
-"""^
^CURRENT
DOLLARS
! I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1
I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
1 1 1 M l l III
1
1949
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1950
* NOT A V A I L A JLE PRIOR TO JANUARY 948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Selected industries
All manufacturingPeriod
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948- July
_ _ _
August
September
October
November
_
December
1949* January
February
March
April
__ May
__ _
June4
Julv 4
August
$0. 633
.961
1. 084
1.237
1.350
1.356
1.373
1.386
1.390
1. 397
1.400
1.405
1.401
1.400
1.401
1. 401
1.406
1. 409
1.400
1948
dollars 2
$1. 090
1. 302
1.300
1.329
1. 350
1. 336
1.347
1. 360
1.371
1.389
1.399
1.408
1.419
1.414
1.414
1.418
1.419
1.432
1.420
]
Durable goods manufacturing
Current
dollars
(33)
(3)
()
$1. 292
1.410
1.417
1.441
1.457
1.462
1.463
1.466
1.467
1.466
1.464
1.467
1.467
1.476
1.478
1.474
1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
$1. 388
1.410
1.396
1.414
1.430
1.442
1.454
1. 465
1. 470
1.485
1.480
1.480
1.485
1.489
1.502
1.495
Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
$1. 171
1.278
1.284
1.293
1.304
1.302
1.317
1.319
1.327
1.323
1. 323
1.321
1. 323
1.325
1. 332
1.320
1948
dollars 2
Building construction
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
$1. 258
1.278
1. 265
1. 269
1.280
1.284
1.309
1.318
1.330
1. 340
1.336
1.333
1.339
1.337
1. 354
1. 339
(33)
(3)
()
(3)
$1. 848
1.862
1.874
1.895
1.892
1.906
1. 915
1. 918
1. 930
1. 933
1. 934
1. 930
1. 924
1. 922
(3)
1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
(3)
$1. 848
1.834
1. 839
1.360
1.866
1.895
1.913
1. 922
1.955
1. 953
1. 952
1. 953
1. 941
1.953
(3)
General merchandise
retail trade
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
$0. 853
.910
. 916
.917
. 923
. 922
.918
.919
.943
.937
.933
. 934
. 960
.968
.951
(3<
1948
dollars
2
(3)
(33)
()
$0. 916
.910
.902
. 900
.906
. 909
.913
. 918
. 945
.949
.942
. 942
. 972
. 977
. 966
3
()
1
2
3
4
Production and related workers.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.
25
AVERAGE WEEKLY EAE>NIN'GS
- SELECTED INDUSTFilES
Average weekly earnings in most industries register*3d only rninor changes in July and August.
DOLL ARS
65
*
60
1948
DOLLARS
/^
<
55
\=~
1948
DOLLARS*
rv*
50
55
/^Cl
RRENT
DOLLARS
5O
45
45
40
1
1 i ,' ,U
LI IJ
1 1 ! I 1
1947
1 I 1 1 1
1948
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
s^^S^^* CURRENT
DOLLARS
l
l ' U L ' l l L1 1 ' 1 i l l
0 J ' L1 i
LL1 i i J 1 -H L l
1947
1950
1949
i i i ii
1948
i i i i i
l,,l ,1 „!,, [ | | | | 1 |
1949
1950
45
80
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
RETAIL TRADE - GENERAL MERCHANDISE
40
75
70
1948
XX /I
f~"^
DOLLAF*s*
1948
DOLLARS*
35
^
-^>/'x^X'Jv^/^^^
**
65
30
^CURRENT C OLLARS
^^ CURRENT
60
0
WEEK
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
0
PER
60
DOLLARS
25
1 ! 1 ! t 1 1 1 1
M
l 1 l i l
1947
1I 11 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1
1948
1 I 1 1 I- 1 l 1 1 l l
1949
0
i l I l l 1 1 1 I I l
l l l 1 I| | 1 1 1 1 i j i j i
1947
1950
| |i j i
1949
1948
1 I 1 1 1 ( 1 1 I 1 I
1950
948 = 100
SOURCE :
DEPARTMENT
OF LABOR
COUNCIL
OF
ECONOMIC
ADVISORS
[Selected industries J ]
All manufacturing
Durable-goods manufacturing
Non-durable-goods
manufacturing
Building construction
General merchandise
retail trade
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars
2
Current
dollars
$23. 86
$41. 07
43. 14
58.46
43. 74
52.45
$50. 44
$52. 46
$46. 96
49. 97
$56. 35
53. 67
$68. 85
50. 61
50. 61
54. 14
54. 14
57. 11
57. 11
70. 47
50. 10
50. 85
53. 97
55. 70
53. 17
56. 54
70. 91
50. 12
51.07
54. 03
57. 41
55.06
58. 50
50. 68
71. 29
51. 64
55. 16
54. 13
57. 19
58.28
70. 59
50. 21
50. 91
54. 83
58. 68
55. 60
59. 50
51.32
69. 39
51. 63
55. 60
58. 76
55. 27
59. 11
72.33
51. 79
51. 84
59. 61
56. 14
56. 08
59. 67
70. 88
51.45
55. 50
51. 35
55. 61
58. 83
58. 95
70. 53
52. 01
51. 33
55. 20
59. 26
55. 93
58. 49
69. 83
51.07
51. 59
54. 74
57. 83
58. 41
55. 29
70.33
50. 12
49. 67
53. 80
54. 29
57. 21
57. 73
71. 81
51.02
50. 41
54. 08
May
54. 74
57. 21
57. 90
71.44
51.47
51.01
54. 55
June
_
_
58. 39
55. 05
57. 86
52. 52
71.27
51. 68
54.67
55. 56
57. 35
58. 28
July 4 ..4
... _
52. 08
54. 60
51. 35
55. 38
57. 63
August
_
58. 45
1
For production and related workers.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
3
Not
available.
4
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—These are revised series and do not agree with data previously published in Economic Indicators.
Source: Department of Labor.
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average _ _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average _ _ _ _
1948: July _
August- __
__ _ _ _ _
September
October
_ November
December
1 94 9 : Jan uary
February _
March
April _ _ _ _
_
___
26
1948
dollars 2
$68. 85
69.43
69. 59
69. 96
69.62
68. 98
72.26
71.02
71.46
70. 54
70. 97
72. 68
72.09
72.43
Current
dollars
$30. 96
33. 31
34.44
34. 30
33. 50
33. 19
32. 86
34. 46
34.42
34.01
33. 68
34. 18
34. 85
35. 62
35.57
1948
dollars 2
$33. 25
33. 31
33. 93
33. 66
32.88
32. 73
32. 66
34.43
34. 49
34.46
34.02
34.49
35. 27
35. 94
36. 15
FARM INCOME
Formers1 cash receipts in August, and for the first 8 months of this year, were about 10 percent
lower than in corresponding periods of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
MONTHLY AVERAGE
CURRENT DOLLARS
I
1939
I
40
1
41
42
1
1
43
1
44
I
45
I
46
I
47
I
I
I!
I
1 !
I
I
I
I
I
1!
I
I
I 1 I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I
48
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *
Period
] 939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: July
August
September
October
_
November
December
1949: January
February.
March
April
Mavj —
June4 _ _
_
July
Aueust *
1
2
3
4
724
981
_
_
'.
- _
--
- -
__
_ __
_ _
_ _ _
-
_
1 340
I 678
1 765
1, 857
2 110
2, 542
2 609
2,693
2, 722
3 132
3, 714
3 314
2, 740
2,383
1,783
1 973
1, 850
1, 944
2, 053
2 177
2.461
Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
1948 dollars) *
taxes) 1948=
2
100
49 8
53. 0
60 2
65 1
67 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100. 0
100.8
100. 8
100 4
100. 0
99 2
99. 6
99. 6
98.4
98. 8
98. 8
98. 4
98. 4
98. 0
97.7
1 454
1, 851
2, 226
2 578
2, 599
2,687
2, 723
2,739
2, 609
2,672
2,700
3, 120
3, 714
3, 341
2,751
2,393
1,812
1, 997
1,872
1,976
2,086
2,221
2,519
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
27
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Heavy purchases of automobiles and other durables plus an increase in service expenditures failed to
o f f s e t entirely the drop in expenditures for nondurables in 3rd quarter,
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES
DURABLE GOODS
'NONDURABLE GOODS!
50
1944
1947
1948
1949
3
4
1947
2
3
2
I
3*
1949
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
2
I960
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
19391944_
1946.
1947>
1948..
67.5
111. 6
147.8
166. 9
178.8
35.3
67. 1
87.5
96.2
102.2
Durable
goods
6.7
7. 1
16.5
22.0
23.5
Services
25.5
37.4
44. 5
48.8
53. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter l
Second quarter
Third quarter 2 _
1
2
__
__
175.2
178.7
180.3
180.9
101.2
102.4
101.8
103.3
22.7
23.8
24.8
22. 9
51.3
52. 5
53.7
54.8
177.9
178.2
176.5
99.9
98.7
96.0
22.5
23. 6
24.0
55.4
55.9
56.5
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
Digitized
28 for FRASER
CONSUMER CREDIT
The continued rise in automobile and other installment credit, partially offset by a drop in charge
accounts, increased total consumer credit by $265 million in August.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
I
1943
1946
J
1947
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
O
F M
A M
1948
1947
END OF YEAR
A
J
A
I
I
S 0 N D
1949
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E SYSTEM.
[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1939
1943 .
1946
1947
1948
1948: July
August . .
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February _
March
April
May
June 2
July 2
August
1
2
_
__ __
Instalment credit
Total
Automobile
sale
credit
Other sale
credit and
loans
Other
consumer
credit *
7,969
5,378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8,600
1,267
175
544
1, 151
1,961
3, 157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6,639
1,544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3,854
2,001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3,865
14, 723
14, 916
15, 231
15, 518
15, 739
16, 319
7,738
7,972
8, 190
8,233
8, 322
8,600
1,689
1,781
1,858
1,889
1,922
1,961
6,049
6, 191
6,332
6,344
6,400
6,639
3, 185
3, 130
3,227
3,457
3,557
3,854
3,800
3,814
3,814
3,828
3,860
3,865
15, 748
15, 325
15, 335
15, 595
15, 843
16, 122
16, 187
16, 452
8,424
8,339
8,429
8,630
8,888
9, 122
9,331
9, 613
1, 965
1,996
2, 105
2, 241
2,386
2,499
2,610
2,767
6, 459
6,343
6, 324
6,389
6, 502
6,623
6,721
6,846
3,457
3, 169
3, 121
3,232
3,235
3,274
3, 123
3, 064
3, 867
3,817
3,785
3,733
3,720
3, 726
3, 733
3,775
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Charge
accounts
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank loans showed a seasonal increase in August. A reduction in required reserves permitted banks to
increase their holdings of Government securities by more than $2 billion.
ONS OF D O L L A R S
125 -
— 125
100 -
- 100
_
75 -
50 -
l
l
^
;!jjjJi
25 -
M
Sv^
x
v^
X&
M
m
1929
i>
1939
w.
25
1
J0
M
1945
A
M
J
1947
END OF YEAR
1948
END OF MONTH
PR EL IMINA RY ES TIM'A TE
[Billions of dollars]
Investments
Total
investments
1929
1939
1945
1947
1948 .
1948: July
August
Septp.Tnher
October
November
December .
1949: January
February
March
April
May
«,j
_
June
July
August 1
1
..
-
.
- . ^ , ~ „_„,--,
.. __
_ _
_
-
_ _ __
49. 5
40.7
124. 0
116.3
114. 3
114. 8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114.5
113. 4
112.5
112. 5
113.4
113. 7
114.7
117. 9
Total
36.0
17.2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
40. 1
40.6
41.7
41. 6
42. 3
42.5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
41.2
40.5
41.2
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized
30 for FRASER
13.5
23. 4
97.9
78.2
71.8
74.6
74. 5
71.9
72. 5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71.2
72.6
72. 5
74.2
76.7
U. S.
Government
securities
4.8
16. 3
90. 6
69. 2
62.6
65.3
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62. 8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
62.0
63.2
63.0
64.4
66.7
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
9.0
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
9. 1
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9. 2
9.2
9.3
9.5
9.8
10.0
MONEY SUPPLY
The money supply continued to increase slightly in August and was about the same as a year ago.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
175
.TIME DEPOSITS
75
^ADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS
v
* *::x
^ '
\^ ^ CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS
<^'V>*x v
. — ^
-i i'..j!^ -\.. >\L.t.j?d.\
1939
1943
1946 1947
END OF YEAR
1948
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
v
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
1947
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1948
END OF MONTH
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
.
_
1948: July
___
August
September
October .
__
November
December .
1949: January
February
March
April
„ _.
May
June
_
July
3
August
_
. _
--_
-
_ __
-
-
_ .
«
-
-
..-_
63.3
112.4
164.0
170. 0
169. 1
166.0
166. 7
166.9
168. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168.2
166.3
164. 2
165.5
165.7
165. 6
166. 3
166.9
Currency
outside
banks
6.4
18.8
26. 7
26.5
26. 1
25.5
25.6
25.7
25.7
25. 9
26. 1
25.2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25.0
25.0
24.9
25. 1
Adjusted
demand
deposits l
29.8
60.8
83.3
87. 1
85.5
83.3
83.8
83.9
85. 1
85.2
85.5
85.4
83.4
81. 1
82.4
82. 6
82.2
83. 1
83.4
Time
deposits 3
27. 1
32.7
54. 0
56. 4
57.5
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.0
57.5
57.6
57.8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
58. 4
58.4
58.3
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
3
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
2
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit of about $400 million for the 3rd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.3 billion for
the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
X CASH
RECEIPTS
CASH PAYMENTS
I 2
I
2 ,946 3
4
1
2 , 947 3
«
2
|948
3
4
2
1949
2
1949 3
I
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
u
2
111
LJ
EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS
1946
3
1947
3
4
1
CALENDAR
2
1948
YEARS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1
Calendar years
Federal cash
payments to
the public l
Calendar year total:
41, 426
1946
_ _ ._
44, 279
1947 _ _ _ _ _ _
44, 920
1948
_ _Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
9, 702
1946- Third quarter
Fourth quarter
__
9,630
1947: First quarter
_ _
14, 345
Second quarter
9,847
Third quarter
_
10, 220
Fourth quarter
9, 869
15, 037
1948: First quarter
Second quarter _ _
_ _ __
10, 238
Third quarter
10, 085
Fourth quarter
_ _ _
9,560
1949: First quarter
_ _ _ _
13, 122
8,814
Second quarter2 _
10, 200
Third quarter
_ _
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions
viously, they were reported as expenditures.
* Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
32
w
41, 372
38, 584
36, 954
+ 54
+ 5, 695
+ 7,967
+ 1, 252
8, 449
+ 959
8,671
+5, 182
9, 163
-781
10, 628
-37
10, 257
+ 1,331
8, 536
+ 6,400
8,637
+ 1, 205
9,033
+ 1,287
8, 798
-925
10, 486
9,964
+ 3, 158
—2, 541
11,355
-400
10, 600
from total receipts; pre-
o
For sale b
Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )
y tne Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O.
Price 15 cents per copy; $1.76 per year; $2.25 foreign
@FedFRASER