Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1948

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80th Congress, 2d Session

_____

Joint Committee Print

'

__

'*-**££•*•'?:.•'''

Economic Indicators
OCTOBER 1948
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING
WASHINGTON : 1948

OFFICE

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama

CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist

r

o the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Leport was established, its members realized that one of
ts basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
urrent economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
ndicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
lonthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
11s this need. While this material was prepared prilarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
fficials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
vailable to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
tterest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
:onomic facts without having to go through vo.minous and specialized documents. In addition,
isinessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and reprentatives of the press and radio have indicated their
rsire for this information. Since nothing contained




in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature the
have urged that the material be made available to tK
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
several months provided the Congress and the public
with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators.
The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
release Economic Indicators each month as a committee
print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter o£ Transmittal
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.

DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,




/.
^CsC*4/fir&'^^

'J

Chairman.
Vice Chairman.

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget

Page

1

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public


IV


29
30
31

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Preliminary 3rd quarter estimates of the Nation's Economic Budget indicate that the total increased
about 3 percent above the level for 1st half of this year, chiefly as a result of price rises.
The Government surplus was greatly reduced as tax receipts declined and Federal expenditures
increased.
TOTAL {GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT-BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1948, FIRST HALF

1948, THIRD QUARTER

1948, FIRST HALF
CONSUMERS

EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS(+)
JD
CONSUMER
SAVING

BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT
y

/A

CASH
SURPLUS

1948, THIRD QUARTER
CONSUMERS
CONSUMER
SAVING

BUSINESS

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT
CASH
SURPLUS

* ANNUAL RATE&SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PltE$ID£NT,JULY I94B.APPENOIX A.

SOURCE: SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, .JULY 1948, APPENDIX A.




PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices rose again in August. A slight drop in food prices was more than offset by a continued rise
in other items.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

250

250

225

225

200

200

175

150

125

100

100

75 LL

iI Ii iI Ii Ii II i tI i t

1939

1940

1941

1942

1944

1943

*ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNlSHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

1945

1947

1946

NOT SHOWN ON CHART,

[1935-39=1001
All items 1

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

__

_ _.

_

_
_ _

_

1947: JulyAugust
September
October __ _ _
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April. _
May
June
July
._
August
1

_

_
_ _

___

Food

Clothing




Rent

99.4
100. 2
105.2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2

95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8

100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8

104. 3
104. 6
106.2
108. 5
108.0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111.2

158. 4
160. 3
163. 8
163. 8
164. 9
167. 0

193. 1
196. 5
203. 5
201. 6
202. 7
206. 9

184. 7
185. 9
187. 6
189. 0
190. 2
191. 2

110.0
111.2
113. 6
114. 9
115.2
115. 4

168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5

209. 7
204. 7
202. 3
207. 9
210.9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6

192. 1
195. 1
196. 3
196.4
197.5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7

115.9
116. 0
116. 3
116.3
116.7
117.0
117. 3
117.7

Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods a,nd services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.

i i I I I

1948

75

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices during September continued to fluctuate around the August
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220

level.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

220

WEEKLY INDEX

I 60

• •"" OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

J

D

F

M

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

j
j
1948

A

1946

1947

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

OF LABOR.

[1926=100]
All commodities

Week ended—
1946* Jan 5
June 29
Sept. 28
Dec. 28
1947: Mar. 2 9
June 28
Sept. 27
Dec. 27
1948' Jan 17
Feb 14
Mar. 20
Apr. 17
May 29
June 26
July 3
10
17
24
31
Au£ 7
14
21
28
Sept. 4
11
18
2 51
Oct. 2
1

.

.

_ _ . _ _ . _
-

.

...
.

_

--

.-

. .

_ _

___

Data received after chart was prepared.

Source: Department of Labor.



-_

. _.

106 8
112. 7
124. 4
139 6
149. 4
147 6
156. 2
163. 0
165 5
159. 7
161. 5
162. 9
164. 4
166. 7
166 7
166. 8
168. 9
168. 2
168 3
169 2
169. 0
169. 2
168. 4
167. 4
168. 0
169. 2
168. 7
167. 1

Farm
products
131. 3
140. 3
156. 6
167. 7
183. 8
179. 0
184. 7
197.0
201. 5
180. 9
187. 6
189. 2
193. 0
198. 4
197. 2
196. 1
198. 1
194. 6
192. 2
193. 6
190. 4
191. 0
189. 3
187. 8
188. 1
190: 1

i9o;s

186. 4

Foods
108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
166.5
162. 2
177. 6
177.8
181. 2
173.3
176.4
178.8
178.0
183. 0
184. 1
185. 3
191. 2
190.4
187.7
190. 0
190. 3
189. 5
187. 8
184.0
185. 9
189.9
187.8
183. 9

Other than
farm and
foods
100. 6
105.4
112.4
123. 9
131.9
132. 0
138.2
146. 0
147.4
147. 5
147.3
148. 3
149.3
149. 9
149.8
149.9
150.4
150. 6
152. 1
152. 4
152. 9
153. 1
153. 2
153.3
153. 5
153. 5
153.3
153. 4

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Index of prices received by farmers dropped moderately from August to September, reflecting bumper crop
production. Prices of some major crops appeared to be stabilizing at about support levels.
PERCENT

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350

350

MONTHLY AVERAGE

300

300

250

250

200

200

PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)

150

150

100

PARITY RATIO *

50

50

I
1939

40

41

I
42

I
43

1 1 1 1 1
44

F M A M J

45

J

A S O N D

1
J

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 1 1 1 1

1 1

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1946

1947

1948

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E .

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1910-14=100]
Prices paid by
Prices
2
(includreceived farmers
interest Parity ratio
by farmers * ing
and taxes)

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278

124
125
132
150
162
170
174
194
231

77
80
94
106
119
115
116
120
120

1947: July
August
September
October
November
December

276
276
286
289
287
301

230
234
238
239
241
245

120
118
120
121
119
123

307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290

251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
251

122
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
116

1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
AugustSeptember




1
3

_
__ ,

_
.

_.

August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

STOCK PRICES
Industrial stock prices declined again in September^ railroads and utilities registered small gains.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE

125

125

1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O

SOURCE : STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

COUNCIL

OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1

Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: July
August
September.. October
November
December
1948 1 January
February
_.
March
April

__

.
_-

_

_

__

May

June
July
August _
September

_

__

_
___ -_

94. 2
88. 1
80. 0
69.4
91. 9
99. 8
121. 5
139. 9
123.0
126.0
124. 4
123. 1
125. 1
123. 6
122. 4
120. 1
114. 2
116.4
124. 6
130.2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
126.4

Industrials

l

94. 8
87. 9
80. 4
71. 3
94. 1
101.7
123.3
143. 4
128.0
131.7
130. 2
128.4
131. 1
130.3
129. 2
126. 0
119. 2
121. 8
130. 8
136.9
142. 7
138.9
133. 5
132. 5

Railroads l

74.7
71. 1
70. 6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136.9
143. 0
105.3
108. 2
105. 2
103. 6
104. 2
100. 1
103. 9
106. 5
101. 9
105. 2
115.2
122. 6
125. 6
124. 7
119.7
121. 4

Utilities >
98. 6
95. 8
81. 0
61.3
82. 1
89. 9
106. 1
120. 2
102.9
102. 2
101. 4
102.0
101. 0
97. 2
94. 0
95. 1
92. 6
93. 0
96.2
99.2
100.6
99. 5
97. 3
97. 6

1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.




EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE

High-level employment and low unemployment continued in August. The seasonal decline in agricultural
employment was partly balanced by increased employment in nonagricultural industries.
75

— MILLIONS

OF PERSONS

50

25

25

J

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

A.

S

0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

A

S

0

N

D

'
UNEMPLOYEC) -IV1AGNIFIED SCALE

i— i PI 1 1 ~
194)
SOURCE.

1944

1945

1

1946

l

t

-I

I

1

I-

\

\

}

)

I

}

\

l

1946

J 3 1 l

j

i

L

i

}

t

1947

l i

1 1 i

i

1948

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces

Period

Civilian employed
Armed
forces

Total

In nonagricultural
industries

57, 380
65, 890
65, 140
60, 820
61, 608

50,
53,
52,
55,
58,

350
960
820
250
027

41,
45,
44,
46,
49,

250
010
240
930
761

9, 100
8,950
8,580
8, 320
8,266

1,470
11, 260
11,280
3,300
1,440

5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141

1947: July_
August ~
September
October
November
December.

64, 035
63, 017
62, 130
62, 219
61,510
60, 870

60,
59,
58,
59,
58,
57,

079
569
872
204
595
947

50,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,

013
594
145
583
609
985

10, 066
8, 975
8, 727
8, 622
7,985
63 962

1, 371
1,352
1,346
1,327
1,294
1, 280

2,584
2,096
1, 912
1,687
1, 621
i, 643

1948: January _
February
March _ _
April.
May
June
July
August- _ l
September

60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61,660
64, 740
65, 135
64,511
63, 578

57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61,296
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312

50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590

7,060
6, 771
6, 847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723

1,242
1, 226
1,236
1,237
1,238
1,260
1,293
1,325
1,366

2,065
2, 639
2, 440
2, 193
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899

1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

1

average
average
average
average
average

_ _

In agriculture

Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




Unemployed

I

i

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT*
Employment in manufacturing rose 300,000 in August, lifting total nonagricultural employment to
45.5 million, nearly 1.4 million greater than a year ago.
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

60

60
MONTHLY

1939

1941

AVERAGE

1944

1945

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of employees]
Period

Total wage
and salary
workers l

30, 287
36, 164
41, 480
40, 069
41, 494
43, 970
43, 686
44, 125
44, 513
44, 758
44, 918
45, 618
44, 603
44, 279
44, 599
44, 295
44, 626
45, 008
45, 074
45, 514

Manufacturing

10 078
12, 974
17, 111
15, 302
14, 515
15, 901
15 580
15, 962
16, 175
16, 209
16 256
16, 354
16 267
16, 183
16 269
15, 945
15 904
16 113
16, 155
16, 456

Trade

6 705
7, 567
7 399
7, 685
8 820
9, 450
9 316
9 356
9, 471
9 684
9 886
10 288
9 622
9, 520
9 599
9, 574
9 617
9 671
9, 647
9, 665

Federal,
State, and
local government

3 987
4 622
6 026
5, 967
5 607
5, 450
5 341
5 318
5, 403
5 414
5 387
5 638
5 498
5, 492
5 546
5, 577
5 624
5 607
5 599
5, 650

Other

9 517
11 001
10 944
_
11 115
12 552
13 170
13 449
13 489
13 464
13 451
13 389
13 338
13? 216
13 084
13 185
13 202
_ __
13 481
13 617
13 673
13 743
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or
received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed
persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not
at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates
in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
1939 monthly average

1941 monthly average. _
1944 monthly average
1 945 monthly average
1946 monthly average1947 monthly average
1947: July
August
September
October
November
December _
1948: January
February
MarchApril
May
a,j __
June
July __ 2
August ___




AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS

Average weekly hours of work in July were unchanged from June, except in coal mining where the
strike in the "captive" mines shortened average working hours considerably. Preliminary data for
manufacturing industries show little change for August.

HOURS PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING

50

50

~

"":
40

30

-

20

-

-

1 0

1939 41

,

1,,,,,

,,,,,!,,,,,

0

1939 41

44

44

45

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

1948

RETAIL TRADE

50
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

40

^^^——V s^s^-^-v ******
30

20

1 0

-

1,,, ,,

0
1939

41

44

45

,, , I. 1 , , i , .

1946

1947

1939 41

1948

44 45

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries

Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: July . _ _ _
August
September
October
November _ _
December
1948: January
February
March
April.
Mav

June 3
Julv 3
August
1
2
3

_

_

___ ___

_

_

_ _ _ _ _

_ __

Bituminous
coal mining

Retail trade

37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3

27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41.6
40. 7

32. 6
34. 8
39. 6
39. 0
38. 1
37. 8

43.0
42. 5
40.3
40. 3
40.5
40.2

39. 8
39. 8
40. 4
40. 6
40. 4
41. 2

31. 8
39. 1
39. 1
39. 9
38. 5
41. 2

37. 9
39. 7
38.0
38. 0
36.6
37. 9

41. 1
41. 0
40.0
40. 0
39.5
39. 7

40. 5
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39. 9
40. 0

40. 9
38. 7
40. 6
27. 0
40. 3
39. 9
34. 2

37. 2
36.7
37. 1
37.0
37. 1
37. 9
37.5

39. 8
40.0
39. 8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8

2

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.




Private
building
construction *

WORK STOPPAGES
Man-days of idleness caused by work stoppages in August fell to the lowest point since February.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25

PEAK MONTH

1939

40

42

43

44

45

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

A*S 0 N D

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.
COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

Man-davs
idle "
(thousands)

Period

1939' Monthly average
April— peak month
1940" Monthly average
1941* Monthly average
April—peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943' Monthly average
June —peak morfth
1944: Monthlv average
1945: Monthly average
October — peak month
1946: Monthly average _
___
February — peak month
1947: Monthlv average
April — peak month
1948: January
February
March
April




_

_

_

Preliminary estimate.

0. 28

559

. 10

1, 921
7, 113

1. 13

Source: Department of Labor.

.32

349

.05

1, 125
4,699

. 15
. 62

727

.09
.47

3, 168
8, 610
9, 672
22, 900
2, 993
8, 540
1,000
725

Mav

1

1,484
4, 902

0, 000
8,000
4, 100
2,000
2, 200
1, 750

June
July 1
August

Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time

1. 39
1.43
4. 19
.41

1. 19
.1
.1
.8
1. 1
.6
.3
.3

.2

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production in September moved upward to the June level, with the output of durable and nondurable
manufactures increasing about equally.

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Tola I Index

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points In Total Index

250 -

250

200 -

200

150 -

150

100 -

100

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

"

*

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total = 100

Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period

Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nonduraproduction Total Durable
goods
ble goods

1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: July _ _ _ _ _ ..
August
_.
September
October
November
December_ 1948: January__
_ _
Februarv
March
April
May
June
Julv
_
August ] _ l
September
_ _
1

Preliminary estimate,




100
239
203
170
187
176
182
187
190
192
192
193
194
191
188
191
192
186
190
192

100
258
214
177
194
183
188
192
197
199
198
200
201
200
195
197
198
191
196
198

100
360
274
192
220
207
210
217
223
224
229
229
226
229
217
220
222
219
221
224

100
176
166
165
172
163
169
172
176
179
173
178
180
177
177
ITS
179
169
176
178

Manufactures
Mining
100
132
137
134
149
140
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
162
159
153
159
1 56

Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
79
80
83
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
83
84
83
84
85

Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
76
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
84
80
82
83

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Mining
15
20
21
21
23
21
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
23
24
24

O

N

D

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of transportation equipment decreased in August as a result of a slow-up in automobile
production. Production of lumber and steel increased.
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 A V E R A G E

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT

LUMBER

800

AND PRODUCTS

400
MONTHLY A V E R A G E

700

300

600

200

500

100

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

1935-39

1943 1945

1946

1947

1948

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment

Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average..
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: July.
August
September..
October
November
December
1 948 : January
February
March
April
May
June
July 1
August

~
_

-

—

-.

-

Iron and steel

100
734
487
232
230

100
130
110
130
144

100
208
183
150
195

217
213
227
232
234
244

133
142
140
143
150
153

181
188
195
204
202
205

244

155

203

237
218
223
236
231

145
142
140
142
149

177
207
207
200
206

232
240

_

Lumber and
products

150
151

203
207

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Textile production in August recovered some of the July drop. Manufactured food production was at the
lowest point since last October.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

MONTHLY A V E R A G E

1935-39

43

45

1935-39

43

45

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

1935-39

43

45

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

1935-39

43

45

SOURCE-. B O A R D OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E S Y S T E M .

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products

Period

Petroleum
and coal
products

Manufactured food
products

Chemical
products

1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

100
153
146
162
163

100
185
235
173
193

100
145
151
150
157

100
384
284
236
251

1947: July
August
September
October November
December.

142
154
160
164
172
163

195
201
203
204
205
208

155
157
158
156
158
158

251
249
248
248
251
254

179
179
175
174
176
174
153
166

214
214
211
213
220
220
217
217

158
160
158
157
159
163
160
156

255
252
250
249
249
256
251
260

__ _

1948: January _
February
March
April
*_««j
Mav -June
July l
August _ _
_ __
1

_ _
_ _

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.



NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction was slightly higher in September with a 5 percent increase in public construction more than
balancing the decrease in private construction.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000

2.0OO
MONTHLY AVERAGE

TOTAL
NEW CONSTRUCTION
1,500

1,500

FEDERAL
STATE, AND
LOCAL*::;i;

1,000

1,000

OTHER PRIVATE

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947

J

F M A M J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction

Period

1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947- July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
September 2
1
2

__ _
_ _

526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,264
1,364
1,423
1,497
1,432
1,320
1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1, 311
1,461
1, 616
1, 715
1, 790
1,804

Total
private

Residential
(nonfarm)

317
251
152
226
688
908
966
1,042
1,086
1, 129
1, 141
1,097
948
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1, 318
1,351
1,344

176
110
45
57
265
438
455
500
540
590
630
610
500
400
475
525
585
635
680
690
685

Other
141
141
107
169
422
469
511
542
546
539
511
487
448
437
466
499
535
600
638
661
659

Federal,
State, and
local 1

208
867
193
174
184
257
298
322
337
368
291
223
209
172
226
287
341
381
397
439
460

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail wilFnot necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department_of Labor.




13

NEW HOUSING STARTS *
In August of this year starts were lower, for the first time, than in any corresponding month last year.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

SOURCE:

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

DEPARTMENT OF

LABOR.

New nonfarm units (conventional
and
prefabricated) 1

Period

Total
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: April_

_ _

_ _

_

___

May

June
_
July
August
September
October.
November
December _
1948: Januarv
February
March
April __
May

June_
_ _
July
August
1

_

_ _

_
__
_

_
_
_

Urban

Rural nonfarm

64, 683
71, 125

41, 164
40, 125

23, 520
31, 000

67, 900
73, 100
79, 400
81, 100
86, 800
93, 800
94, 000
79, 800
58, 800

38, 000
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300

29, 900
33, 800
36, 400
36, 600
39, 400
43, 500
40, 800
31, 800
22, 500

50, 000
47, 200
70, 000
98, 800
97, 000
96, 000
94, 000
83, 000

30, 400
28, 800
41, 800
54, 400
56, 400
52, 900
52, 800

19, 600
18, 400
28, 200
44, 400
40, 600
43, 100
41, 200

New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.

14 for FRASER
Digitized


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT

Nonagricultural business plans to spend 15 percent more on plant and equipment this year than in
1947. Business plans for 4th quarter show a decline in expenditures of about $1 billion (annual
rate) from 3rd quarter, with most of the decrease in manufacturing construction.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25

25
ANN UAL TOTALS

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
;;;;;: UTI LI TIEStt

1939

1941

1945

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND E X C H A N G E C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transportation
Period

Total i

Manufacturing

Electric and
gas utilities

Mining
Railroad

1939___
__
1941
1945
1946
1947
1948 3
1947: First quarter __ _
_
_ _
Second quarter
Third quarter _ _ _
_ _
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter _ _ _
__ .
Second quarter4 _
_ _ __ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 4 _ _
_ _

5,200
8, 190
6, 630
12, 040
16, 180
18, 630
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
16, 680
19, 240
19, 800
18, 760

1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
8,030
5, 800
7,400
7,480
9, 160
7,200
8,560
8,640
7,760

380
680
440
560
690
770
600
640
720
840
720
800
800
720

280
560
550
570
910
1,320
640
880
920
1,200
1,080
1,200
1,440
1,520

Other
280
340
320
660
800
680
720
920
. 800
760
720
760
680
600

480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,540
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
2,000
2,560
2, 760
2,800

Commercial
and miscellaneous 2

1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,280
3, 600
4, 120
4, 640
5,360
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,320

1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Based on actual expenditures for first half and estimates
4

for second half.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).



15

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New issues in 2nd quarter 1948 were slightly higher than in the previous quarter. The proportion of
proceeds earmarked for plant and equipment continued to increase.
BILLIONS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

OF D O L L A R S

3 .0

3.0

QUARTERLY A V E R A G E

2.5

2.0

1.5

1939

1943

1945
1947

1946

SOURCE:

1948

SECURITIES AND E X C H A N G E C O M M I S S I O N .

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1939 quarterly average
1943 quarterly average
1945 quarterly average.
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average

Working
capital

Retirement
of debt and
stock J

529
287
1,476
1,689
1, 528

81
77
270
820
1,068

43
35
159
529
806

39
42
111
291
261

448
210
1,206
869
460

1947* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1,018
1,605
1, 266
2,223

673
932
797
1,867

396
636
649
1,542

278
296
148
325

344
672
469
354

1948' First quarter
Second quarter

1,614
1,663

1,400
1,353

845
1,080

555
274

214
309

1

__

Includes small amount for other purposes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

16

Plant and
equipment




INVENTORIES AND SALES
Manufacturers' inventories continued to rise in August. Department store sales and stocks showed a
slightly more than seasonal decline.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

MANUFACTURING
30

3O
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

x^'

«.^*

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INVENTORIES*

X**

20

20

_y^

^^

SALES*

1 0

1 0

^J^^
0

|

1

1 1 1

1 1 i

|

1

!

1 1

I 1

1946
BILL IONS

1 1

1

1 1 1 1 |

1 I

1 1 1 1

1947

I 1 l

l

0

1948

PERCE NT

OF DOLLARS

i i i i i I i i l i i

1 1

l

1 1 1

i

1

1 1

1948

DEPARTMENT STORES

3O

400

SEASONALLY

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ADJUSTED

SALES**

300

2O

INVENTORIES!

s^^s

^^
.—•

1 0

'

200

SALES'*

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

i i i i i 1 i i i 'i i

1946

1947

*

1

1 1

1 1

1 1

1

1

1 1

1

00

SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.

Inventories 3

^ ^
^O/"
INVENTORIES**

11 111ii11ii

i l l 1 J 1 J J | LJ

1946

1947

BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES,

Sales 4

__
-

_ „

._- -_

__

18, 775
19, 472
21, 502
23, 435
26, 479
26, 846
27, 051
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 738
30, 219
30, 400
3
4

10, 712
11, 131
13, 055
14, 635
15, 063
14, 361
15, 257
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16, 552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 866
16, 386
17, 900

4, 309
4, 337
5, 172
5, 823
6,837
6, 699
7,068
7, 233
7, 342
7, 467
7,545
7,850
7, 885
7,869
7,777
7,801
8,011
8, 044
8,223

1

1

1

1 1 1

1 I 1

END OF MONTH.

Retail 2

Sales 4

Inventories *

Department stores
Sales *

5, 338
5, 575
6, 321
7, 118
6,800
7,096
7,072
7,763
8,716
8, 013
8,262
7,692
7, 121
7,726
7,652
7,389
7,766
7, 796
8, 160

Inventories

Sales

1935-39 = 100, seasonally
adjusted 6

Millions of dollars
1946: March _ . .
June
September
December
_ _
1947' June
. -July
August
September
October
_
November
December
^ ,-„
1948* January
___
February
March
April
May 6
June
July6 6
-_ _August

1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Wholesale 2
Inventories 3

i

1948

FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

Manufacturing *
Period

^y

-x

1948

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE

1
2

1

1947

OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

RETAIL

O

INVENTORIES

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1946

8,023
8,917
9,995
11,049
11, 948
11, 925
11, 944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 108

7,796
8, 164
8,876
9, 258
9, 810
9, 822
9,786
10, 264
10, 292
10, 426
10, 620
10, 464
10, 463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 840
10, 765

177
210
226
274
242
231
227
231
251
273
283
288
303
312
308
296
284
273
266

255
275
272
276
288
287
284
294
279
302
303
286
286
285
306
310
312
316
311

5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of j month.
6
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.




Book value, end of month.
Total for month.

17

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports leveled off in July. The value of imports decreased.
MILLIONS

OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

1,600

MONTHLY AVERAGES

1,400

1,400

1,200

I,20O

1,000

—

1,000

800

600

400

200

—

1936-38
*
**

1943

1945

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

N

D

RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS
RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Millions of dollars]
Period
1936_38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average. _
1947 monthlv average

1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July 3
August

Exports *

__

__

__ _

__

>_

Imports 2

Excess of
exports

1,281

877
849

207
282
346
409
478

40
798
531
440
803

1, 320
1, 265
1,265
1, 183
1, 303
1, 185
1, 172

463
450
400
481
492
455
601

857
815
865
702
811
730
571

1, 091
1,086
1, 141
1, 122
1, 103
1,013
1,022

546
582
666
527
549
616
559
598

545
504
475
595
554
397
463
390

247

1,080

1947: June . _
July
August
September
October
November
December

988

1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupiedjareas*3 Recorded general merchandise imports.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.




L8

O

2OO

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME

Compensation of employees rose $5 billion (annual rate) in 3rd quarter, and proprietors 1 and rental
income dropped $ 1 billion, according to p r e l i m i n a r y data. In 2nd quarter, revised estimates
of corporate profits have increased "national income by $4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
250

250
S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT.

^PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL M^^pM

m^><^& i NCOME

I 50

i COMPENSATION OF
EMPLOYEES

1944

1939

1

1945

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

2

1947

1946

3

4

1948

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Total
National
Income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947

72.5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202.5

_
.
.__ .

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors'
and rental
income

47.8
121. 1
122. 9
1 17. 3
127. 5

14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46. 0

Corporate profits and invenNet interest tory
valuation
adjustment
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4. 3

5.8
24.0
19.8
16. 8
24.7

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948' First quarter _
Second quarter1
Third quarter

_ _

197.3
199.3
200. 6
212.8

125. 0
125.3
127. 6
132.2

46.4
44. 6
44. 4
48. 6

4. 1
4.2
4. 4
4. 5

215. 1
221.4
(2)

133.7
133. 9
139. 3

50. 6
51. 9
50. 6

4. 6
4. 7
4. 7

21. 8
25.2
24. 3
27.5

2

26. 2
30.9

()

1
2

Preliminary estimate.
Not available.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals beeausejof rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,




19

CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits so far this year have fluctuated around the l e v e l s of last year.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40

40

ANNUAL TOTALS

1929
*

1939

1943

/Y0 ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.

S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1929
1939
1943.1946
1947

•

.-.-

Corporate
profits
before taxes
9.8
6.5
24.5
21.8
29.8

Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12. 8
18. 1

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9

Undistributed
profits
2. 6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947 1 First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.. _

28.9
28.8
29. 1
32. 4

11.4
11.3
11.4
12. 7

17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7

6.4
6.7
6.9
7. 1

11. 1
10.8
10. 8
12.6

1948: First quarter. _
Second quarter

31.4
33. 4

12.2
13. 0

19.2
20. 4

7.3
7.3

11.9
13. 1

NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail .will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



See p. 19 for profits after

PERSONAL INCOME
Personal Income increased to $2!3.0 billion (annual rate) in July, about $700 million above the June
level. The rise in salaries and wages more than offset the drop in farm income (part of proprietors'
income on chart). Preliminary data show that salaries and wages continued to rise in August.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250T

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

250

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

A N N U A L TOTALS

PAYMENTS^
A

SOCIAL SECURITY;X:X .N?...?vJ ;>>'-

m
NO RENTAL INCOMEvCy-\ . \ \ \ ' . ' , \ . v % \ S \ \ \ " . \ V

1939 1944 1945

J

F

M

A

M

J

J . A

S

0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

*

* TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947.
**PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947

72. 6
164. 5
170.3
178. 1
195.2

_
--.

Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and other
and rental
labor income
income

Dividends,
and interest

14. 7
34. 1
36. 0
41. 8
46.0

9. 2
10.6
11. 4
13.5
15. 6

45. 6
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121. 9

Social security
and GI payments
3.0
3.6
6.2
11.4
11.7

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947:

July
August
September
October
November
December

1948'. January
February
March _
April
May
June
July
August 1




__

_ _

__

__ _

193.2
190.8
206.2
200.0
201.4
207.7

121.2
121.9
123.8
124. 6
127.4
129. 3

45.3
42. 8
45.0
47. 5
47. 1
51. 3

15. 6
15. 6
16.2
15. 9
16. 1
16. 2

11. 1
10.5
21. 2
12.0
10.8
10.9

209.4
206.8
205.6
207. 4
207.2
212. 3
213.0
215. 1

129.4
128. 9
127. 6
127. 0
128.8
131. 7
133. 9
136.8

52.4
50.0
49.3
51.9
50.7
52. 8
51. 0
50. 3

16. 5
16. 6
16. 6
16.7
16.8
16.8
17.0
17. 1

11. 1
11.3
12. 1
11.8
10.9
11.0
11.0
10. 9

1

Preliminary estimate. Detail, except salaries, wages, etc., became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

21

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
The 3rd quarter increase in consumer Income and expenditures was attributable to high-level
employment, wage increases, and tax reductions. The rate of saving continued up.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S

2 50

ANNUAL RATES, S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1

2

3

1946

SOURCE:

4

1

2

3

4

2

1947

[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income 1

Period

70. 2
75. 7
92. 0
116. 2
131. 6
145. 6
149.4
159.2
173. 6

_

__

_

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67. 5
72. 1
82. 3
90. 8
101. 6
111. 4
122.8
147. 4
164.8

2.7
3. 7
9.8
25.4
30. 0
34.2
26. 6
11.8
8.8

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
__
Fourth quarter

..

1948: First quarter
Second quarter2
Third quarter

__

1
2

__
___
_

._ __

169.7
168.2
175. 0
180.9

158. 1
164. 2
165.6
171. 1

11. 6
4. 1
9. 4
9.7

183. 7
187.3
191. 8

172.0
175. 1
179.0

11.7
12.2
12. 8

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




4

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1939
1940
1941
1942__ _
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

3

1948

PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita disposable income in 3rd quarter was about 2 percent higher than in 2nd quarter. The
purchasing power remained about the same, with the price rise about offsetting the income increase.
DOLLARS
1,600

DOLLARS
1,600
SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED A N N U A L RATES

1947 DOLLARS*
1,200

1,200

CURRENT DOLLARS

I

1939
PERSONAL

INCOME

*• CURRENT

SOURCES:

LESS

OF

1945

1944

I

TAXES.

DOLLARS DIVIDED BY

DEPARTMENT

1943

1942

1941

1940

HE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX

COMMERCE

AND

DEPARTMENT

ON THE BASE

OF

I

2

I

I

3
1946

I

I

2

3
1947

...

Current
dollars

-

_

_ _

.

_

_ _ _ _ _

_

_ __

1947 dollars a

$536
574
691
863
964
1,054
1,070
1,127
1,205

$859
913
1,045
1, 179
1,242
1,338
1,326
1,288
1,205

Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter. _ _
Third quarter. _ _
Fourth quarter
_ _
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 3

I

I

1948

LABOR

Period

_

I

1947 =|OC.

Per capita disposable
personal
income l

1939
1940
-_ 1941
1942
__ _ _
1943
1944__ _ _ _ _ _
1945
1946 _
1947

I

_

_
_ _

__
__

_

__

_

__

_ _ _

Consumers1
price index,
1947=100

62.4
62.9
66. 1
73.2
77. 6
78.8
80.7
87.5
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation

1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246

1,224
1, 191
1,200
1,200

96. 9
98.2
101.0
103.8

1,261
1,279
1,306

1,198
1, 195
1, 193

105.3
107.0
109.5

1
2
3




Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

23

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
The continued sizable increase in average hourly earnings in recent months reflected the settlement of
a number of major 1948 contracts.
DOLLA RS PER HOUR

D O L L A R S PER HOUR

MANUFACTURING

RETAIL TRADE
1.50

1.50

1947 DOLLARS*
_—
/ m ^^^rrrm
1.00

CUR RENT

1947 DOLLARS*
„

1.00

DOLLARS

,.

"""•

CUF RENT DOLLARS
.50

.50

0

1

1946

t i l l

1947

1

1

1 1

0

L 1

1

I

1

1

I

I

1

1 1 !

i i i i i 1 i i i i i

i I i i i 1 i i i i i

1947

1948

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00

2.00

1947 DOLLARS*

_ -m"***--* -*• —^

1947 DOLLARS*

**"""""•*•« i^^^^^^
'

— *V — X

1.50

CUF
f~^\

—•x/

"*.S.i'/
RENT DOLLARS

1.50

CUF

1.00

1.00

.50

.50

O

!

1946

1948

., , , , I 1 . 1 , I 1
1946

i i i i i 1 i i , i i
1947

, 1 , 1 , 1 , , , , ,

0

1948

i i i i i 1 i i i ii
1946

.

'

RENT DOLLARS

, , . , , ! , , , , ,

i i i , , I i i i i i

1947

1948

# CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947:100.
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

OF LABOR.

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average „.-„
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
_- August
September
October
November
December
_ __
1948: January
February
March
__
April
May
June 4
July 4
_ _ _
August _ _ _ _
___
_
1
2

Current
dollars

_

$0. 633
. 729
1.019
1. 023
1.084
1. 221
1. 226
1.230
1. 236
1.249
1. 258
1.268
1. 278
1. 285
1. 287
1. 289
1.292
1. 301
1. 319
1.332
1. 345

1947
dollars 2
$1. 014
1. 103
1.293
1. 268
1.239
1.221
1. 242
1.236
1. 227
1.214
1.223
1.224
1.218
1.212
1. 223
1.230
1.215
1. 215
1. 222
1.221
1. 227

Retail trade
Current
dollars
$0. 536
. 568
.724
.773
.878
.991
.996
1.003
1.003
1.012
1.013
1.025
1.016
1.044
1.050
1. 044
1.055
1. 064
1.070
1. 077

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Source: Department of Labor.

Digitized
24 for FRASER


1947
dollars 2
$0. 859
.859
.919
.958
1.003
.991
1.009
1.008
.996
.983
.986
.989
.969
.985
.998
.996
.992
. 993
.992
, 987

Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$0. 886
. 993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1. 644
1.489
1.740
1.787
1.819
1.798
1.851
1.826
1.847
1.826
1.
842
3
1. 821
1.841
1. 850
1. 941
3
4

1947
dollars *
$1. 420
1. 502
1.505
1. 537
1.601
1. 644
1.509
1.749
1.775
1.768
1. 747
1.787
1. 741
1.742
1.736
1. 758
3
1. 713
1. 719
1. 715
1. 779

Private building
construction 1
Current
dollars
$0. 932
1.010
1.319
1. 379
1.478
1. 676
1.661
1.669
1. 689
1.718
1.738
1.765
1.774
1.781
1.806
1.805
1.818
1. 835
1.858
1. 889

1947
dollars 2
$1. 494
.528
.674
.709
.689
. 676
.683
. 677
1. 677
1. 670
1.689
1.704
1.691
1.680
1.717
1. 722
1.710
I. 713
1. 722
1. 731,

Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
July average weekly earnings continued to rise in most industries, the "captive"

mine strike in

bituminous coal making that industry an exception. The August increase in manufacturing earnings
reflected continued wage increases.
DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS

PER WEEK

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
CURRENT DOLLARS

CURRENT DOLLARS
\

—^

1947 DOLLARS*
XX

1947 DOLLARS

i i i i i I i i i i i

1947

1946

1948

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING

^

CUR RENT

I i 1 I I 1 1 1 I 1 i

i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1947

1946

1948

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

DOLLARS
CURRENT DOLLARS

"^***->"* ~7'

/^*

*

V*

^
\

1947 DOLLARS * *

i 1 ii i 1 i l I I I

1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 i I

1946

1947

1947 DOLLARS"

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l l
1948

1946

EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGtS

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

1947

1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1948

CUHHCNT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMER S' PRICE INDEX ON BASE OF 19*7 * IOO
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

OF LABOR.

[Selected industries]

Manufacturing
Period

1939 monthly average..
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average..
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average..
1947 monthly average. .
1947- June
July
....
August
September __ .
October
November .
December...
1948" January
February .
March
April
Mav
- - t J
June 4 _ _
July 4
August
_ _
1
2

Current
dollars
$23. 86
29. 58
46.08
44. 39
43.74
49.25
49.33
48. 98
49. 17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52.69
52.07
51. 75
52.07
51. 79
51.86
52. 89
53.08
53. 86

1947 dollars 3
$38. 24
44.75
58. 48
55.01
49.99
49.25
49. 98
49. 23
48.83
49.05
49.61
49. 51
50.23
49. 12
49. 19
49. 69
48. 72
48.42
49.02
48. 65
49. 14

Retail tntdo
Current
dollars
$21. 17
21. 94
26. 58
28. 31
32. 55
36. 67
37.82
37. 99
38. 14
37. 06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37. 62
38.33
38.89
39. 27
39. 84
40. 52
41. 19

Bituminous coal mining

imm ~i oil l itn r H i
"
$:u.
:a
:n.
:{;.
.T/.

1947 dollars2

i»:i
] ( .»
v:i
ns
•.'()

$23. 88
30. 86
51. 27
,r>2. 25
58. 03

3f>. s;,
.'{5. 70

71. 77
7.Y '2'2

:io. 07
:ts. :;•.as. is
;r;. sv
;io.
o:' i
:i.;». vi)
r

a. >.
:tu.
;jv.
:-;7.
:i7.
;>7.

<i9 ;
11 !
11
'.MI
;».'.
v..

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100
Source: Department of Labor.



Current
dollars

oo. so
(57. 09
M. s7
70. i>3
71.19
71. 91

7:.
7i)
vt
vi
vi
(.;

7s
i.'i
si
os
sv
i> i
I 'i rl

$38. 27
46. 69
65.06
64. 75
66.32
66.86
67.97
55. 15
69. 74
69. 18
69.88
69. 28
71.71
71.49
67.05
71.41
:i
-10. 59
09. 17
09. 31)
02. 00

Private building
construction l
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63.30
62. 68
63.30
66.97
65. 22
. 66. 14
64.55
67.31
66. 28
66. 31
66.89
67. 31
68. 13
70. 49
70.84

1947 dollars s
$48. 70
53. 16
66. 22
66. 58
64. 27
63.30
63.51
63. 62
66.50
63. 38
64.28
62.31
64. 17
62.53
63.03
63. 83
63. 32
63. 61
65.33
64. 93

d on pny period during coal stoppage.
i i i m r y estimate.

FARM INCOME
Farm income changed little from July to August. For the third consecutive month,.prices paid showed no change.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

« Period

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average -~
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average _ _
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1 946 monthly average1947 monthly average 1947- July
August
September
October _ _ _
November
December
1948: January
February
March
.
April

-- __
_
_

_
_

_-

___

__
__

May

June
_ _ _ _ _ _
July. 4
___
_______
August

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *

Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939
=
100 2

723
761
981

100.0
100. 8
106. 5
121. 0
130. 6
136. 3
138. 7
155. 6
186. 3
185. 5
188. 7
191. 9
192. 7
194.4
197.6
202.4
200.0
199. 2
200. 8
201. 6
202.4
202.4
202.4

1,340
1, 678
1, 753
1, 857
2, 136
2, 542
2, 630
2, 562
3, 118
3, 818
3, 276
2, 843
2, 571
1, 862
1,932
2, 075
2, 119
2, 437
2, 693
2, 722

1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
1
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14 = 100, to the base 1939== 100.
8
Farm
income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest,
4

Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.




26

Farm income
(millions of
1939 dollars) 3

and taxes, 1939= 100.

723
755
921

1, 107
1,285
1,286
1,339
1,373
1,364
1, 418
1,358
1, 622
1, 981
1, 685
1, 439
1, 270
931
970

1, 033
1, 051
1, 204
1,331
1, 345

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Durable purchases rose nearly 8 percent in the 3rd quarter, as increased output made more
goods available. Expenditures for nondurables and services were also up somewhat.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

200

~~~
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ANNUAL TOTALS

1944

1939

1945

C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period

Nondurable
goods

Total
67. 5
111.4
. 122. 8
147.4
164. 8

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947

35.3
67.5
75.4
87. 5
96.5

Durable
goods
6. 7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0

Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43. 6
47.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947:

1948: First Quarter
Second Quarter1
Third Quarter




__-

-

-

- —

158.1
164.2
165. 6
171.1

92. 5
96.3
96.8
100.2

19.6
21. 1
21.1
22. 1

46. 0
46.7
47.7
48.8

172.0
175. 1
179.0

101.0
102.4
103.5

21.4
22.3
24.0

49.6
50. 4
51.5

1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,

9.7

CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit increased again in August. Instalment credit

rose about 4 percent, one-third of

which was attributable to automobile sales.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16

14

12

10

- 6

- 2

1929

1939

1941

1943

J F M A M J

END OF YEAR

J A S O N D

J F M A M J

1946

J A S O N D J

F M A M J J A S O N D

1947

1948

END OF MONTH

*SWGLF PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
SOURCE: Boai

Council of Economic Ad.isers

[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1947
1947: July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January. _
February
March
April .
May
June
July
August 3 _

_

.

_

3.2
4.4
5.9
2.0
2.4
3.9
6.2

5. 1

5.2
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.2

6. 3
6. 5
6. 7

7.0

7. 1

7.3
7.6

Charge
accounts
1.7
1.5
1.8

1. 5

2.0

3. 1

3.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0

3. 3
3.6
3.2

3. 1

3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.1

Other
consumer
credit 2
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3

3. 1

3.6
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6

3. 6

3.6
3.7
3.7
3.7

1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes
single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bystem.




28

7.6

8. 0
9. 9
5. 3
6. 6
10. 2
13. 4
11. 3
11. 5
11. 7
12. 1
12. 7
13. 4
13. 1
13.0
13.4
13. 6
13.8
14. 1
14.2
14.4

Instalment
credit 1

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Commercial bank loans increased again in August. Government security holdings dropped a little.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125

125

100

100

75

50

25

25

1929

1939

F

1945

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

-

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A *S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1948

END OF YEAR

END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY. ESTIMATE
Council of Economic Advisers

[Billions of dollars]
Investments

Total
loans and
investments

End of period

Total

U.S.
Government
securities

49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114. 0
116. 4

36. 0
17. 2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1

13. 5
23. 4
97.9
82.9
78.3

16. 3
90.6
74. 8
69.3

113. 4
114. 0
115.2
116. 3
116. 6
116.3

34. 0
34 9
35.5
36. 8
37. 6
38. 1

79. 4
79. 1
79.7
79. 5
79. 0
78.2

70. 7
70.3
70.8
70. 5
70. 1
69.2

38.2
116. 6
1948: January
115. 5
38. 7
February.
113. 6
38.9
March
114. 3
38. 8
ApriL
_
114. 5
39. 4
May .r
39. 9
113. 9
June
40.
2
114.
S
July
_
._
_
_
_
1
40.7
115. 1
August .
_ _
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add"to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

78.4
76. 9
74.7
75.5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74.5

69.4
67.9
65.5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1

1929
1939
1945
1946
1947_

_
..

1947: July
August
September
October
November
December




. _ .
...

_

. ...

_ _ _ _ _ _ _
__ _ _

_

__

_ _ _

4.8

Other
securities
8.7

7. 1

7.3

8. 1
9.0

8.7
8.8
8.9

9. 0
8. 9
9. 0

). 0
). 0
). 3
). 2
). 2
). '2

). ;>

'.). •!

MONEY SUPPLY
Money supply increased again in August, chiefly as result of a rise in private demand deposits,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

125

125

100

100

75

50

- 25

25

1929

1939
1941 1943
END OF Y E A R

1946

J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A M J J A * S O N D

1945

1948
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

END OF MONTH

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period

1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946..
1947
1947: JulyAugust
September
October
November
December
__
1948: January
February
March
April
May__ _ _ _ _ _ _
June
July
_
August 3

__ _
_

__

26. 5
37.0
50. 5
90. 1
126. 9
113. 1
115. 1
110. 6
111. 3
112. 5
113. 5
114.4
115. 1
113.7
112.0
109. 6
110. 9
111.0
110. 5
111. 4
111. 9

Currency
outside
banks
3. 6
6.4
9. 6
18.8
26. 5
26. 7
26. 5
26. 0
26. 2
26.4
26. 3
26. 6
26. 5
25. 8
25. 7
25. 6
25.4
25.4
25. 6
25. 5
25. 6

Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
22. 8
29.8
39. 0
60.8
75. 9
83.3
87. 1
83.2
83.4
84.2
85.4
85.9
87. 1
86.6
84.6
81.6
83. 0
83.2
82. 7
83. 5
83. 9

U. S.
Government
deposits 2
0.2
.8
1.9
10.4
24.6
3. 1
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.4

1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
* Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTSFROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 1st half of 1948 was $7.6 billion. Preliminary
estimates for the last half of 1948 indicate a close balance.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

10

2

2

3

2*

3

3

1948

1947

1946

SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Calendar year by quarters

1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter «
Fourth quarter

.

1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

_ _ __ _

1948: First quarter. __
Second quarter

__

_

..

_>__

_.
„

Federal cash
payments to
the public

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )

14
11
10'
9

153
089
375
868

13
13
9
8

648
590
104
907

+ 505
— 2 501
+ 1 271
+ 961

14
11
10
10

962
429
494
022

9
12
10
8

772
197
527
677

+ 5 190
— 768
— 33
+ 1 345

15 758
11, 408

9 346
10, 176

+ 6 412
+ 1, 232

Source: Treasury Department.




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31