Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1997
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105th Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
NOVEMBER 1997
(Includes data available as of December 3, 1997)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1997
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman
CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman
SENATE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
TOM EWING (Illinois)
MARK SANFORD (South Carolina)
MAC THORNBERRY (Texas)
JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California)
JIM McCRERY (Louisiana)
FORTNEY PETE STARK (California)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)
CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)
ROD GRAMS (Minnesota)
SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas)
JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)
CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
JANET L. YELLEN, Chair
JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member
REBECCA M. BLANK, Member-Nominee
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies
to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,
Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy
($3-75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing)
from:
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ISBN 0-16-055809-3
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDING
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose
4.8 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.3 percent, and the implicit price deflator
rose 1.5 percent.
BILLONS OF DOUARS (RAUD SCALE)
8,400
BILUONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCAIE)
8X10
SEASONALLY ADIUSTH> ANNUAL RATCS
^
8,000
8,000
7,600
7,600
fS ^
7,200
^
//
GDP
IN CHAINED |1992| DOUARS
6,800
^--
7,200
-*1
6,800
^/
4,400
_\
^ — ""
~! """
6,400
r~"^
s~~ ^
_- -*
6,000
S
5,600
__,,-•
5,200
/
s
6,000
5,600
|---'"
s\
s """
4,800
--'
5,200
GDP
/INCURRENTDc3UARS
s
4,800
jS'
/
4,400
4,400
S~*~
4,000
/
3,600
s
/
4,000
3,600
V
3,200
3 200
1 1 1
\ \ i
1 1 1
1982
1983
1984
1
1985
1986
!
'
1987
t i i
1988
1989
i t i
1 1 1
1990
1991
1992
i t I
1 1 1
1
1993
1994
1995
1
1
i i i
111
1996
1997
GOUNC1 OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: ID
IV
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995: I .
II
m
IV
1996- I
n
in
IV
1997: I .
n
m'
1
Exports and imports
Personal Gross
of goods and services
eonGross
private
domestic sumption domestic
Net
product expendi- investtures
exports Exports Imports
ment
5,438.7
5,743.8
5,916.7
6,244.4
6,558.1
6,947.0
7,265.4
7,636.0
6,574.6
6,704.2
6,794.3
6,911.4
6,986.5
7,095.7
7,168.9
7,209.5
7,301.3
7,381.9
7,467.5
7,607.7
7,676.0
7,792.9
7,933.6
8,034.3
8,128.8
3,594.8
3,839.3
3,975.1
4,219.8
4,459.2
4,717.0
4,957.7
5,207.6
4,488.6
4,554.9
4,616.6
4,680.5
4,750.6
4,820.2
4,871.7
4,934.8
4,990.6
5,033.8
5,105.8
5,189.1
5,227.4
5,308.1
5,405.7
5,432.1
5,530.7
-80.4
829.2
799.7 — 71 3
736.2
-20.5
790.4 -29.5
876.2 -60.7
— 90 9
1,007.9
1,038.2
-86.0
1,116.5
94 8
872.8 -72.1
920.3 -66.6
963.4
76 6
1,017.9 -87.9
1,007.1 -103.4
1,043.1 -95.6
1,050.8 -98.3
1,024.0 -105.4
1,028.8 -80.4
-60.1
1,049.1
1,060.5 -83.0
— 93 8
1,105.4
1,149.2 -114.0
88 6
1,151.1
1,193.6
-98.8
1,242.0 -88.7
1,249.8
110 2
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
509.3
589.7
628.6
557.3
601.8
622.3
639.4
669.0
658.6
719.3
721.2
812.1
818.4
904.5
870.9
965.7
646.8
718.9
679.4
746.0
678.5
755.1
710.1
797.9
.836.0
732.6
763.7
859.2
882.8
784.5
807.7
913.1
831.6
912.0
909.9
849.9
850.2
933.2
958.7
865.0
977.6
863.7
993.2
904.6
922.2 1,021.0
960.3 1,049.0
965.9 1,076.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Total
Total
1,095.1
1,176.1
1,225.9
1,263.8
1,283.4
1,313.0
1,355.5
1,406.7
1,285.3
1,295.5
1,291.0
1,300.8
1,332.3
1,328.0
1,344.7
1,356.0
1,362.2
1,359.2
1,384.2
1,407.0
1,413.5
1,422.3
1,433.1
1,449.0
1,458.6
477.2
503.6
522.6
528.0
518.3
510.2
509.6
520.0
515.7
518.5
506.9
505.3
520.4
508.3
513.6
511.2
512.9
500.6
516.4
524.6
521.6
517.6
516.1
526.1
525.8
National Nondefense defense
360.6
373.1
383.5
375.8
360.7
349.2
344.6
352.8
358.0
359.4
344.9
348.5
359.7
343.6
346.3
348.1
347.3
336.5
348.4
357.3
354.8
350.6
343.3
350.6
352.2
116.7
130.4
139.1
152.2
157.7
161.0
165.0
167.3
157.7
159.1
162.0
156.8
160.7
164.7
167.3
163.0
165.5
164.1
168.0
167.3
166.8
167.0
172.8
175.5
173.6
State
and
local
617.9
672.6
703.4
735.8
765.0
802.8
846.0
886.7
769.6
777.0
784.1
795.5
811.9
819.6
831.1
844.8
849.3
858.6
867.8
882.4
891.9
904.7
917.0
923.0
932.7
AddenGross
Final
dum:
sales of domestic Gross
pur- 1
domestic
national
product chases
product
5,407.0
5,735.8
5,919.0
6,237.4
6,537.6
6,885.7
7,235.3
7,610.2
6,560.6
6,681.3
6,741.9
6,835.1
6,936.3
7,029.6
7,116.8
7,185.0
7,281.8
7,357.4
7,456.4
7,584.3
7,638.9
7,761.0
7,867.4
7,953.2
8,078.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
5,519.1
5,815.1
5,937.2
6,274.0
6,618.8
7,037.9
7,351.4
7,730.9
6,646.7
6,770.8
6,870.9
6,999.2
7,090.0
7,191.3
7,267.2
7,314.8
7,381.7
7,442.0
7,550.5
7,701.5
7,790.0
7,881.5
8,032.4
8,123.1
8,239.1
5,452.8
5,764.9
5,932.4
6,255.5
6,576.8
6,955.2
7,270.6
7,637.7
6,596.9
6,717.1
6,811.2
6,920.3
6,992.3
7,096.8
7,175.1
7,220.6
7,298.3
7,388.5
7,475.3
7,610.5
7,669.1
7,796.1
7,919.2
8,013.6
8,094.3
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
| Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993- HI
IV
1994- I
II
HI
IV
1995- I
II
III
rv
1996- I
II
ra
IV
1997. I
n
in'
Gross
domestic
product
6,062.0
6,136.3
6,079.4
6,244.4
6,389.6
6,610.7
6,742.1
6,928.4
6,393.5
6,476.9
6,524.5
6,600.3
6,629.5
6,688.6
6,703.7
6.708.8
6,759.2
6,796.5
6,826.4
6,926.0
6,943.8
7,017.4
7,101.6
7,159.6
7,217.6
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross private
domestic investment
Non residential
fixed
investment
4,064.6
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,343.6
4,486.0
4,595.3
4,714.1
4,366.6
4,398.0
4,439.4
4,472.2
4,498.2
4,534.1
4,551.3
4,583.5
4,612.9
4,633.5
4,669.4
4,712.2
4,718.2
4,756.4
4,818.1
4,829.4
4,897.9
Residential
fixed
investment
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
600.2
648.4
706.5
771.7
602.3
625.6
626.2
641.2
653.2
672.9
695.7
705.4
708.2
716.8
736.9
759.7
789.3
800.8
808.9
837.0
872.5
Change
in business
inventories
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.0
22.1
60.6
27.3
25.0
15.3
24.2
53.1
75.9
49.7
63.6
48.5
21.6
17.0
22.2
8.0
21.3
37.9
32.9
63.7
77.6
49.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.6
267.0
257.0
272.1
242.2
255.1
261.3
271.5
269.4
265.9
261.2
250.4
255.5
260.8
266.1
277.2
274.1
271.1
273.3
278.2
280.8
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
N'et
exports
-82.7
-61.9
-22.3
29 5
-70.2
-104.6
-98.8
-114.4
-83.1
-80.5
-97.6
-103.9
-111.1
-105.9
-113.5
-112.8
-92.9
-76.1
- 100.8
-112.6
-138.9
-105.6
-126.3
-136.6
-162.9
Imports
Exports
Total
Total
520.2
564.4
599.9
639.4
658.2
712.4
791.2
857.0
646.3
679.1
676.0
704.1
722.1
747.3
760.4
777.4
802.4
824.6
828.2
847.4
851.4
901.1
922.7
962.5
972.7
603.0
626.3
622.2
669.0
728.4
817.0
890.1
971.5
729.4
759.7
773.6
808.0
833.2
853.2
873.9
890.3
895.4
900.7
929.0
960.0
990.2
1,006.6
1,048.9
1,099.1
1,135.7
1
(JDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
1,213.9
1,250.4
1,258.0
1,263.8
1,252.1
1,252.3
1,251.9
1,257.9
1,250.5
1,254.7
1,241.9
1,243.3
1,268.1
1,255.8
1,257.7
1,257.3
1,255.0
1,237.7
1,243.2
1,265.1
1,261.5
1,261.8
1,260.5
1,270.1
1,273.6
National
defense
531.5
541.9
539.4
528.0
505.7
486.6
470.3
464.2
501.5
501.3
487.2
481.2
496.4
481.7
480.4
474.9
473.4
452.6
460.9
470.7
465.7
459.6
452.8
460.1
458.9
401.6
401.5
397.5
375.8
354.4
336.9
322.6
317.8
351.1
350.8
335.1
335.9
347.0
329.6
328.7
327.4
324.0
310.3
314.9
323.2
319.4
313.6
303.9
309.4
310.4
State
and
local
Nondefense
130.1
140.5
142.0
152.2
151.2
149.5
147.5
146.1
150.3
150.4
151.9
145.1
149.4
151.7
151.4
147.3
149.1
142.1
145.7
147.2
146.0
145.7
148.5
150.2
148.2
682.6
708.6
718.7
735.8
746.4
765.7
781.6
793.7
749.1
753.4
754.7
762.2
771.7
774.1
777.3
782.3
781.5
785.1
782.4
794.4
795.9
802.3
807.7
810.1
814.7
Final
sales of
domestic
product
Gross
domestic
purchases '
Addendum:
Gross
national
product
6,028.7
6,126.7
6,082.6
6,237.4
6,368.9
6,551.2
6,712.7
6,901.0
6,379.3
6,453.8
6,473.0
6,526.7
6,580.4
6,624.8
6,654.3
6,685.3
6,739.3
6,771.9
6,815.0
6,902.3
6,905.0
6,981.7
7,034.1
7,077.7
7,162.1
6,147.8
6,199.8
6,101.6
6,274.0
6,459.0
6,712.7
6,837.5
7,037.7
6,475.6
6,556.2
6,620.2
6,701.8
6,737.5
6,791.3
6,813.2
6,817.3
6,848.9
6,870.4
6,923.2
7,033.6
7,075.3
7,118.4
7,220.9
7,286.9
7,367.2
6,075.7
6,157.0
6,094.9
6,255.5
6,408.0
6,619.1
6,748.7
6,932.0
6,415.3
6,489.7
6,540.5
6,609.3
6,635.6
6,691.2
6,711.3
6,721.0
6,758.3
6,804.2
6,834.7
6,930.1
6,940.2
7,023.1
7,091.8
7,144.4
7,190.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
[Index numhers, 1992 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross private
domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period
1989 . .
1990
1991 . . ..
1992
1993
1994
1995 .
1996
1993- in
IV
1994- I
II
ni
rv
1995: I
n
in
rv
1996- I
II
in
rv
1997- I
n
m--
Gross
domestic
product
89.72
93.60
97.32
100.00
102.64
105.09
107.76
110.21
102.83
103.51
104.13
104.71
105.39
106.09
106.94
107.46
108.02
108.61
109.39
109.84
110.54
111.05
111.71
112.22
112.62
Total
88.44
92.91
96.82
100.00
102.66
105.15
107.89
110.47
102.79
103.57
103.99
104.66
105.61
106.31
107.04
107.66
108.19
108.64
109.35
110.12
110.79
111.60
112.20
112.48
112.92
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
95.29
96.59
98.54
100.00
101.22
103.27
104.27
103.83
101.37
102.02
102.28
102.99
103.84
103.94
104.31
104.34
104.28
104.17
104.34
103.88
103.69
103.41
89.28
94.62
98.06
100.00
101.46
102.77
104.48
107.15
101.26
101.93
101.89
102.20
103.32
103.65
103.85
104.31
104.70
105.05
106.02
107.03
107.28
108.25
108.89
108.88
109.23
103.24
102.46
101.71
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Services
86.55
91.22
95.78
100.00
103.62
106.85
110.53
113.76
103.93
104.79
105.50
106.35
107.24
108.27
109.37
110.22
110.94
111.57
112.26
113.19
114.28
115.25
116.01
116.69
117.45
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential fixed
96.16
98.41
99.92
100.00
100.65
101.89
102.33
101.26
100.69
100.81
101.35
101.83
102.19
102.17
102.18
102.43
102.43
102.28
101.87
101.26
101.18
100.80
100.29
99.91
99.67
95.08
97.80
98.85
100.00
103.71
107.11
110.93
113.64
104.23
104.60
105.77
106.35
107.46
108.84
110.19
110.65
111.13
111.74
112.29
112.80
114.36
115.10
115.68
116.65
117.27
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Exports
Imports
Total
97.91
98.74
100.31
100.00
100.07
101.23
103.44
101.61
100.08
100.04
100.36
100.84
101.45
102.19
103.18
103.89
103.63
103.06
102.66
102.07
101.44
110.39
99.95
99.77
99.30
97.81
100.37
100.02
100.00
98.75
99.39
101.62
99.40
98.56
98.21
97.61
98.75
100.33
100.71
101.02
102.56
101.86
101.02
100.46
99.87
98.73
98.66
97.34
95.44
94.76
89.79
92.93
96.88
100.00
102.50
104.85
108.34
112.02
102.85
103.43
104.03
105.01
104.83
105.53
106.91
107.63
108.34
110.60
112.04
111.46
111.99
112.62
113.98
114.34
114.57
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
89.79
92.93
96.47
100.00
101.76
103.64
106.83
111.02
101.98
102.44
102.91
103.73
103.68
104.26
105.37
106.35
107.20
108.47
110.64
110.56
111.07
111.80
112.99
113.31
113.49
89.70
92.84
97.94
100.00
104.29
107.70
111.88
114.47
104.93
105.81
106.68
108.04
107.56
108.53
110.49
110.66
111.05
115.49
115.34
113.66
114.23
114.66
116.39
116.82
117.17
90.52
94.91
97.86
100.00
102.49
104.85
108.24
111.71
102.74
103.13
103.89
104.37
105.20
105.89
106.92
107.99
108.67
109.35
110.93
111.07
112.07
112.76
113.52
113.94
114.48
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES:
AND PERCENT CHANGES
{Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Percent change from preceding period *
Index numbers. 1992-100
Period
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: I ...
H ..
HI
rv.
n ..
m
1994: I ...
IV .
1995: I ...
n ..
ra
IV .
1996: I ...
n ..
m
iv.
1997: I ...
n ..
Real ODP
(chain-type
quantity
index)
ODP
(current
dollars)
56.28
62.49
66.95
70.82
75.14
80.87
87.10
91.98
94.75
100.00
105.02
111.25
116.35
122.29
103.20
104.24
105.29
107.36
108.81
110.68
111.88
113.63
114.80
115.45
116.92
118.22
119.59
121.83
122.93
124.80
127.05
128.66
130.18
ODP
chain-type
price index
73.16
75.92
78.53
80.58
83.06
86.10
89.72
93.64
97.32
100.00
102.64
105.09
107.76
110.22
101.85
102.38
102.83
103.52
104.16
104.74
105.39
106.07
106.93
107.49
108.03
108.60
109.35
109.86
110.59
111.10
111.78
112.27
112.68
76.93
82.32
85.25
87.88
90.47
93.93
97.08
98.27
97.36
100.00
102.32
105.87
107.97
110.95
101.34
101.85
102.39
103.72
104.49
105.70
106.17
107.11
107.36
107.44
108.24
108.84
109.32
110.92
111.20
112.38
113.73
114.66
115.59
1
Percent changes based on indexes to 3 decimal places. Quarterly percent changes are at
annual rates.
GDP
implicit
price
deflator
Real GDP
(chain-type
quantity
index)
ODP
(current
dollars)
73.16
75.92
78,53
80.58
83.06
86.09
89.72
93.60
97.32
8.4
11.0
7.1
5.8
6.1
7.6
7.7
5.6
3.0
5.5
5.0
5.9
4.6
5.1
3.9
4.1
4.1
8.1
5.5
7.1
4.4
6.4
4.2
2.3
5.2
4.5
4.7
7.7
3.6
6.2
7.4
5.2
4.8
100.00
102.64
105.09
107.76
110.21
101.84
102.35
102.83
103.51
104.13
104.71
105.39
106.09
106.94
107.46
108.02
108.61
109.39
109.84
110.54
111.05
111.71
112.22
112.62
GDP
implicit
price
deflator
ODP
chain-type
price
index
4.0
7.0
3.6
3.1
2.9
3.8
3.4
1.2
-.9
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.0
2.8
.1
2.0
2.1
5.3
3.0
4.7
1.8
3.6
.9
.3
3.0
2.2
1.8
6.0
1.0
4.3
4.9
3.3
3.3
4.3
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.4
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.3
3.9
2.1
1.8
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.6
3.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.8
1.9
2.7
1.9
2.4
1.8
1.5
4.3
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2,5
2.3
3.9
2.0
1.9
2.7
2.4
2.2
2.6
2.7
3.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.9
1.7
2.6
1.9
2.4
1.8
1.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars)'
Gross domestic product
of nonfinanda!
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Total
cost and
profit2
Consumption of
fixed
capital
Indirect
business
tax, etc-3
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
2,950.9
3,084.0
3,132.1
3,262.6
3,430.4
3,709.7
3,905.3
4,132.4
3,179.8
3,210.2
3,168.8
3,262.6
3,374.4
3,586.3
3,719.7
3,887.8
0.928
.961
.988
1.000
1.017
1.034
1.050
1.063
0.094
.096
.101
.101
.101
.101
,100
.101
0.088
.092
.100
.103
.106
.108
.107
.108
IH
IV.
1994: I ...
3,444.3
3,525.2
3,387.2
3,447.7
3,624.5
3,668.9
3,729.1
3,816.4
1.017
1.022
1.028
1.031
1.037
1,041
1.046
1.048
1.051
1.054
1.060
1.062
1.064
1.065
1.069
1.072
1.072
.102
.100
.106
.099
.099
.098
.099
.101
.100
.101
.101
.101
.101
.101
.101
.101
.100
.108
.108
.108
.109
.108
.108
.108
.107
.107
.109
.109
.108
.108
.107
.107
.107
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993:
1996: I ....
4,030.7
4,112.9
4,165.8
4,220.1
3,526.1
3,559.8
3,594.6
3,664.9
3,664.9
3,683.2
3,747.7
3,782.9
3,801.8
3,872.4
3,913.7
3,963.5
1997: I ....
4,299.7
4,361.1
4,445.5
4,022.2
4,068.9
4,146.9
ffl
rv.
1995: I ...
n ...
rn .
rv..
n ...
m.
rv..
n ...
3,833.6
3,860.4
3,940.4
3,986.8
'Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancia! corporate business in chained (1992) dollars.
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business
with the decimal point shitted two places to the left.
2
;1
.106
Compensation
of employees
0.613
.640
.660
.673
.679
.677
.687
.690
.679
.675
.673
.677
.679
.678
.687
.689
.685
.686
.687
.689
.691
,893
.697
.698
.694
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Total
0.087
.086
,085
.091
.103
.122
.128
.140
.102
.113
.115
.120
.124
.129
.123
.122
.132
.133
.138
.140
.141
.142
.143
.144
.149
Profits
tax
liability
Profits
after
tax4
0.031
.030
,027
.028
.031
.036
.037
.040
.030
.035
,034
.035
.036
.038
0.056
.056
.058
.063
.072
.086
.090
.101
.072
.078
.081
.085
.087
.090
.038
.084
.086
.094
.096
.099
.100
.101
.102
.103
.104
.107
.037
.037
.037
.039
.040
.040
.040
.040
.040
.042
Net
interest
0.046
.046
.042
.032
.028
.027
.027
.023
.027
.027
.026
.026
.027
.028
.029
.028
.027
.026
.025
.024
.022
.021
.021
.021
.021
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
4
NATIONAL INCOME
I Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Period
National
income
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993: m
IV
1994: I ...
4,652.1
4,761.6
4,990.4
5,266.8
5,590.7
5,912.3
6,254.5
5,281.7
5,388.7
5,423.2
5,556.3
5,636.1
5,747.3
5,807.9
5,862.4
5,953.4
6,025.5
6,108.8
6,229.4
6,303.3
6,376.5
6,510.0
6,599.0
6,690.0
n
m
IV
1995: I
n .. .
ra
IV
1996: I
n
m
IV
1997- I
n
m'
1
Proprietors' income
with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Compensation
of
employees'
Farm
35.4
29.3
37.1
32.4
36.9
23.4
37.2
25.6
38.0
46.4
38.8
33.2
29.1
20.6
21.3
22.9
28.9
31.9
36.5
40.1
40.4
40.2
43.6
40.5
3,352.8
3,457.9
3,644.9
3,814.9
4,012.0
4,215.4
4,426.9
3,837.6
3,876.2
3,937.4
3,988.0
4,028.7
4,093.9
4,153.2
4,187.9
4,238.0
4,282.6
4,322.2
4,403.9
4,461.0
4,520.7
4,606.3
4,663.4
4,723.8
Nonfarm
338.6
347.2
386.7
418.4
434.7
465.5
483.1
420.6
426.5
417.5
435.9
438.4
447.0
457.6
463.1
468.7
472.6
477.4
483.5
483.7
487.9
494.4
500.0
506.2
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Kental
income
of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
61.0
67.9
79.4
105.7
124.4
132.8
146.3
106.1
111.5
112.7
126.0
130.1
128.9
130.5
132.3
131.5
137.1
143.4
144.6
148.0
149.2
149.0
148.7
148.2
397.1
411.3
428.0
492.8
570.5
650.0
735.9
492.8
541.2
512.0
562.0
590.1
617.7
613.2
628.0
672.8
685.7
717.7
738.5
739.6
747.8
779.6
795.1
816.2
Profits
before tax
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
371.7
374.2
406.4
465.4
535.1
622.6
676.6
459.6
508.9
475.1
525.3
556.2
583.9
610.7
615.0
630.6
634.1
664.9
682.2
679.1
680.0
708.4
719.8
740.8
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-8.5
-16.1
-24.3
-2.5
.2
-4.8
-4.3
-15.1
-21.2
-23.6
-50.3
-37.8
-9.3
.4
-5.1
-54
-2.7
3.3
3.5
5.9
4.9
358.2
378.2
398.9
456.9
519.1
598.4
674.1
459.8
504.1
470.8
510.2
535.0
560.3
560.4
577.2
621.4
634.5
659.8
676.8
676.4
683.4
711.9
725.7
745.8
Capital
consumption
adjustment
Net
interest
38.9
33.1
29.1
36.0
51.4
51.6
61.8
33.0
37.1
41.2
51.8
55.1
57.4
52.9
50.8
51.5
51.1
57.9
61.6
63.2
64.4
67.7
69.4
70.4
467.3
448.0
414.3
402.5
412.3
425.1
425.1
398.9
395.4
397.2
405.6
415.6
430.7
432.7
429.7
419.5
418.6
416.2
422.5
430.9
430.6
440.5
448.1
455.1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 .
1993- HI
rv
n
m
1994- I
IV
1995: I .
n
ni
rv
1996: I
n
in
rv
1997: I
n
IE'
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,343.6
4,486.0
4,595.3
4,714.1
4,366.6
4,398.0
4,439.4
4,472.2
4,498.2
4,534.1
4,551.3
4,583.5
4,612.9
4,633.5
4,669.4
4,712.2
4,718,2
4,756.4
4,818.1
4,829.4
4,897.9
Total
durable
goods
Motor
vehicles
anil
parts
493.3
462.0
488.5
523.8
561.2
583.6
611.1
529.9
542.1
550.7
555.8
561.7
576.6
572.2
577.7
590.8
593.7
600.7
614.8
611.9
617.1
637.8
629.0
655.9
224.3
193.2
206.9
218.9
230.0
229.5
231.3
219.8
228.4
231.S
228.4
227.3
232.6
226.2
227.5
232.9
231.6
233.4
234.2
229.7
228.0
233.4
223.1
238.0
Pnrnitnre
and
household
equipment
Other
173.5
177.0
189.4
207.8
229.4
248.4
269.5
210.9
214.8
219.1
226.1
232.2
240.3
241.4
244.6
251.5
256.2
259.2
269.9
272.3
276.8
287.4
292.3
301.5
96.6
91.8
92.3
97.2
102.3
107.2
113.3
99.3
99.0
100.0
101.6
102.9
104.5
105.9
107.0
107.9
107.9
110.2
113.4
113.2
116.3
121.4
119.7
121.8
Total
nondurable
goods
1,316.1
1,302.9
1,321.8
1,351.0
1,389.9
1,412.6
1,432.3
1,356.8
1,361.8
1,378.4
1,385.5
1,393.2
1,402.5
1,408.4
1,411.6
1,413.9
1,416.3
1,422.5
1,431.6
1,433.9
1,441.2
1,457.8
1,450.0
1,465.9
* Includes other items, not shown separately.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Services
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures
Pood
662.9
659.6
660.0
675.3
687.9
690.5
689.7
677.9
679.2
684.3
689.8
687.9
689.5
690.8
690.2
690.6
690.6
692.4
690.3
687.3
689.0
694.6
688.2
689.6
Clothing
Gasoline
and
and oil
shoes
217.9
215.9
225.5
234.2
247.1
257.5
267.7
235.9
238.6
243.1
242.7
248.1
254.7
255.3
257.0
259.1
258.7
261.6
268.4
270.8
270.0
277.1
273.8
281.5
107.3
103.4
106.6
108.7
109.8
113.1
114.1
109.8
109.0
109.2
109.6
109.9
110.7
112.7
113.2
113.0
113.6
112.9
114.5
114.1
114.8
114.7
116.1
116.6
Fuel
oil
and
coal
Other
Total
services1
11.2
10.8
10.9
10.7
10.7
10.5
10.6
10.9
10.9
11.9
10.2
10.7
10.2
10.0
10.6
10.4
11.1
11.1
10.4
10.6
10.3
9.4
10.1
10.4
316.7
313.2
318.8
322.1
334.3
341.3
351.2
322.3
324.0
329.9
333.0
336.7
337.8
339.9
341.0
341.5
342.9
345.1
349.1
352.5
358.3
363.7
363.4
369.9
2,321.3
2,341.0
2,409.4
2,468.9
2,535.5
2,599.6
2,671.0
2,480.0
2,494.4
2,510.9
2,531.4
2,543.8
2,555.9
2,571.2
2,594.5
2,608.7
2,623.8
2,646.5
2,666.5
2,672.8
2,698.2
2,723.9
2,749.8
2,777.5
Housing
Medical
care
627.2
635.2
646.8
654.7
674.3
688.2
700.2
655.8
660.0
666.8
672.2
677.0
681.1
683.7
686.7
689.7
692.8
695.6
698.7
701.7
704.8
708.3
712.0
715.6
602.8
621.6
646.6
655.3
662.1
674.9
688.1
656.4
656.7
658.1
661.1
663.2
666.0
669.5
672.9
677.0
680.4
679.4
686.2
689.8
697.1
704.4
708.8
716.4
Souree: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Retail sales
of new passenger cars
and light
trucks
(millions of
units)
13.9
12.3
12.8
13.9
15.0
14.7
15.0
13.8
14.6
14.9
14.9
14.9
15.3
14.7
14.4
14.9
15.0
15.0
15.1
15.1
14.9
15.3
14.5
15.3
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $35.2 billion (annual rate) in October, following an increase of $23.3 billion in September.
Wages and salaries increased $23.9 billion in October, following an increase of $10.2 billion in September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
7,000
<5,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
2,000
2,000
\
OTHER INCOME
1,400
1,400
-V
800
800
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
400
400
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1993
1995
1997
1996
OOUNOl Of ECONOWC ADVBSB
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 . .
1994
1995
1996
1996- Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Peb
Mar
May
" J
July
Sept'
Ocf
. .
....
.
.
4,184.6
4,501.0
4,804.2
4,981.6
5,277.2
5,519.2
5,791.8
6,150.8
6,495.2
6,575.6
6,615.2
6,664.4
6,700.1
6,750.3
6,788.2
6,800.9
6,822.8
6,863.5
6,874.2
6,914.3
6,937.6
6,972.8
Wage anil
salary
disbursements '
2,453.6
2,598.1
2,757.5
2,827.6
2,986.4
3,089.6
3,240.7
3,429.5
3,632.5
3,683.5
3,713.4
3,753.7
3,754.1
3,799.1
3,821.3
3,822.1
3,835.1
3,867.6
3,869.9
3,902.2
3,912.4
3,936.3
Proprietors' income3
Other labor
income ' 2
251.7
273.1
300.6
322.7
351.3
385.1
405.0
406.8
407.6
407.2
408.7
411.4
410.5
412.5
413.9
414.4
415.3
415.6
416.6
417.6
418.9
420.1
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensa*
tion of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and
the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
Farm
27.5
36.3
35.4
29.3
37.1
32.4
36.9
23.4
37.2
40.8
40.5
39.9
39.4
39.9
41.4
43.0
43.8
44.0
42.8
40.3
38.4
38.0
:
Nonfarm
307.8
321.1
338.6
347.2
386.7
418.4
434.7
465.5
483.1
485.8
487.9
490.0
492.8
494.6
495.8
497.9
499.8
502.4
503.7
505.3
509.6
513.6
Rental
ineome
of
persons 4
55.1
51.7
61.0
67.9
79.4
105.7
124.4
132.8
146.3
149.2
149.2
149.1
148.5
149.3
149.2
149.3
148.9
147.8
147.6
148.6
148.3
147.6
Personal
dividend
income
109.9
130.9
142.9
153.6
159.4
185.3
204.8
251.9
291.2
293.7
295.0
296.9
310.7
312.5
314.4
316.3
318.3
320.3
322.4
324.5
326.6
328.6
Personal
interest
income
595.5
674.5
704.4
699.2
667.2
651.0
668.1
718.9
735.7
747.8
749.8
751.8
754.3
757.0
760.4
763.4
766.0
768.9
772.2
775.7
779.0
782.2
Transfer
payments5
577.6
626.0
687.8
769.9
858.2
912.0
954.7
1,015.0
1,068.0
1,077.0
1,081.8
1,085.5
1,105.5
1,104.1
1,111.9
1,114.6
1,116.6
1,119.7
1,122.2
1,125.2
1,130.4
1,133.8
*With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
4
5
Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance
194.2
210.8
223.9
235.8
248.4
260.3
277.5
293.1
306.3
309.4
311.3
313.8
315.8
318.7
320.1
320.1
320.9
323.0
323.1
325.2
325.9
327.4
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual
rate of 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 1997.
BIIUONS Of DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
24,000
22,000
DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
24,000
22,000
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
. ... —-
ED (1992) DOLLAR
20,000
18,000
\
_
e-tf^*^
18,000
Z-
16,000
|--~
20,000
r^ — —
14,000
^
16,000
r\
RRENTDI
1
^^
14,000
^-*
12,000
10,000
12,000
x-""^
10,000
. — —•
i I I
1982
^
I I I
I
1 983
I I
I
I I
1985
1984
1
1 1
1986
I I I
i i i
1987
1988
i i i
1989
i i i
1990
i i i
1991
1 1 1
1992
1
i ii
1 1
1994
1993
•SEASONS rADUSIH) AhMMLRAflES
SOUKOEDBWHMENTOf COMMBtCE
Personal
income
Period
Less:
Personal
tax ami
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
4,804.2
4,981.6
5,277.2
5,519.2
5,791.8
6,150.8
6,495.2
1991
1992
1993
1994 .. .
1995
1996
1
1 1
1996
1
1 1
1997
COUNOl OFECGNWKADVBBS
Less:
Personal
outlays l
Equals:
Personal
saving
Disposable
personal
income in
billions of
chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita
disposable personal
income
Current
dollars
Billions of dollars
1990
[ i i
1995
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Dollars
624.8 4,179.4 3,958.1
624.8 4,356.8 4,097.4
650.5 4,626.7 4,341.0
690.0 4,829.2 4,580.7
739.1 5,052.7 4,842.1
795.1 5,355.7 5,101.1
886.9 5,608.3 5,368.8
4,498.2 16,721 17,996
4,500.0 17,242 17,809
4,626.7 18,113 18,113
4,703.9 18,706 18,221
4,805.1 19,381 18,431
4,964.2 20,349 18,861
5,076.9 21,117 19,116
221.3
259.5
285.6
248.5
210.6
254.6
239.6
Percent
change
in real
per capita
disposable
personal
income
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
overseas
(thousands)2
Percent
15,360
15,732
16,520
17,273
18,093
18,837
19,608
16,532
16,249
16,520
16,825
17,207
17,460
17,750
0.8
-1.0
1.7
.6
12
2.3
1.4
5.3
6.0
6.2
5.1
4.2
4.8
4.3
249,956
252,680
255,432
258,161
260,705
263,194
265,579
17,363
17,574
17,774
17,978
18,199
18,419
18,578
18,774
18,938
19,055
19,291
19,562
19,660
19,919
20,247
20,303
20,624
16,891
16,968
17,092
17,178
17,232
17,326
17,356
17,438
17,505
17,540
17,642
17,765
17,745
17,848
18,046
18,051
18,264
-0.0
3.7
-5.5
5.7
1.8
3.8
3.6
-.8
1.6
1.5
2.8
.2
1.7
-.2
3.8
2.3
1.7
4.9
5.4
3.4
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.3
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.1
4.5
3.9
3.7
4.2
3.5
258,516
259,191
259,738
260,351
261,040
261,692
262,235
262,847
263,527
264,169
264,680
265,258
265,887
266,491
266,987
267,545
268,171
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1993: in
IV
1994: I
II
Ill
IV
1995:
I ...
II
Ill
IV
1996: I
II ... .
Ill
rv
1997:
I
II
lHr
5,544.2
5,659.1
5,516.3
5,766.6
5,838.1
5,946.1
6,053.1
6,114.8
6,179.1
6,256.2
6,359.4
6,461.3
6,541.9
6,618.4
6,746.2
6,829.1
6,908.7
695.5
716.4
712.9
750.5
739.9
753.0
766.5
795.1
798.9
820.0
840.0
887.8
897.3
922.6
955.7
979.2
997.0
4,848.7
4,942.8
4,903.4
5,016.1
5,098.2
5,193.1
5,286.6
5,319.6
5,380.2
5,436.2
5,519.4
5,573.5
5,644.6
5,695.8
5,790.5
5,849.9
5,911.7
4,609.8
4,675.2
4,738.2
4,803.3
4,876.1
4,950.7
5,007.3
5,074.3
5,136.4
5,186.3
5,261.3
5,347.8
5,390.6
5,475.4
5,574.6
5,602.8
5,703.8
239.0
267.6
165.2
212.8
222.1
242.4
279.2
245.4
243.8
249.9
258.1
225.7
254.0
220.4
215.9
247.0
207.9
4,716.9
4,772.5
4,715.3
4,792.8
4,827.3
4,884.9
4,938.9
4,940.9
4,973.0
5,003.9
5,047.6
5,061.3
5,094.8
5,103.8
5,161.1
5,200.9
5,235.3
1
Includes persona) consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer
payments to rest of the work! (net).
2
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
18,756
19,070
18,878
19,267
19,530
19,844
20,160
20,239
20,416
20,579
20,853
21,012
21,229
21,373
21,689
21,865
22,045
18,246
18,413
18,154
18,409
18,493
18,667
18,834
18,798
18,871
18,942
19,071
19,081
19,161
19,152
19,331
19,439
19,522
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In fh© first quarter of 1997, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $17.4 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income rose $19.9 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
240
. sg»r-^-
200
r
^—^_—*~~-|
x-"
I
\
c5ROSS FARM INC OME
160
—
•—•—•"
280
240
'
200
160
'
120
120
80
80
60
~—
~~s
s
"N
N
X
-rf
40
/•„
v
~.
f
,- — --.. -.
/
x
\.S
„
\.-"
s
60
/
A
' \
%
\
\ .
40
V'
NET FARM NCOME
20
20
10
1
4
1
1989
1
i
i
i
1990
1
1
1
1991
1
I i
1992
i
i
1993
I
!
1
1
1
1994
1
!
1995
i
i i
1996
* SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTC•D ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DERARTMB-JTC3F AGRICULTURE
1
1
1
4
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Gross farm income
Period
Cash marketing receipts
Total'
Total
1987
.
.
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
.
1996
1995: I
II
III
W
1996- I
II
III .
TV
1997- IP
168.4
177.9
191.9
198.1
191.9
200.5
203.6
215.7
210.9
233.5
208.7
206.8
219.2
209.0
239.4
238.8
230.8
225.0
242.4
141.8
151.2
160.8
169.5
167.9
171.4
177.7
181.2
187.7
202.3
182.5
183.0
201.9
183.4
203.7
206.0
206.3
193.3
207.4
1
Cash marketing receipts and Inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cadi
income, and nonmoney income ftimis!)e<l by farms.
2
Physical elmtigcs m end-ot'-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during tiie year.
Livestock and
products
76.0
79.6
83.9
89.2
85.8
85.6
90.2
88.2
87.0
92.9
83.4
81.8
96.3
86.6
90.1
90.6
96.7
94.2
92.5
Crops
65.8
71.6
76.9
80.3
82.1
85.7
87.5
93.1
100.7
109.4
99.2
101.2
105.6
96.8
113.6
115.4
109.6
99.1
114.9
Production
ezj>enses
Value of
inventory
changes2
-2.3
-4.1
3.8
3.3
g
4^2
-4.5
8.2
-3.9
2.7
-4.8
-4.5
-3.5
-2.8
3.3
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.3
131.0
139.9
146.7
153.3
153.3
152.9
160.5
167.5
174.2
181.3
171.0
174.0
176.1
175.6
177.6
182.1
182.4
183.1
180.7
Net farm
income
37.4
38.0
45.3
44.8
38.6
47.5
43.1
48.3
36.7
52.2
37.7
32.8
43.1
33.4
61.9
56.6
48.4
41.9
61.8
NOTE.—Data mehide net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.
Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to
annual data in table.
Sources: Department of Agriculture.
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1997, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $21.0 billion
(annual rate) and profits after tax rose $8.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOUARS
/so
BILUONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONAUYACUUSFED ANNUAL RATES
-
/
__
750
700
700
/—*
650
650
-
600
550
550
-
-
500
500
~
450
400
-
s* (
300
-
r*
J
50
0
^
__
S
.-''-'
'
~
-
s
„•»
•x._
_ s'
1
1984
1
'
~— '
-*'
s
VkXUABIlTIV
\
__\
x
f-
200
150
100
50
-0
y'
---,'
1
1
1985
1
%
t
— UNDIS1TUBUTED
/
1986
i i i
i i i
1987
1988
1989
i i i
1
1990
1991
1
1
i i t
l i i
1992
1993
PROFITS1994
>OURCE:OEfARlM&ITOf COMMERCE
250
/**
_.—
.^_-
•' \/
"'
t
1983
<-.
h^
<.
S
/
>-^ /
\
N^\
,
t
,•
1 ~
V
1 1 1
1982
"""^
J
k"- 450
400
350
- 300
-
J
V
/^p__--
PROFITS AFTER TAX
J
1
v^
150
100
r— v
/\
/
^T\
350
200
J
PROFTTS BEFORE TAX
\
-
250
600
-
/ ^
1 1 1
t ii
1995
1996
1997
COUNOL OFECONOMICADVEBQ
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits after tax
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment '
Domestic industries
Period
Nonfinancial
Total 2
Total
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
... .
1993: III
TV
1994- I
II
in
TV
1995- I
n
TJI
TV
1996- I
II
Ill
TV
1997- I
II
HI?
1
2
3
330.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
456.9
519.1
598.4
674.1
272.6
292.5
309.5
334.0
383.0
445.7
511.7
578.2
459.8
504.1
382.7
435.2
470.8
510.2
535.0
560.3
398.9
437.9
460.7
485.2
560.4
577.2
621.4
634.5
659.8
676.8
676.4
683.4
476.9
486.8
540.9
542.1
568.7
583.5
584.6
575.8
711.9
725.7
745.8
614.5
624.9
656.4
Financial
53.1
68.6
87.4
83.7
82.9
69.4
97.6
103.5
79.4
91.0
44.1
72.3
81.3
80.0
89.5
96.3
107.1
97.4
110.4
111.5
104.0
88.1
116.5
117.5
119.0
3
Total
219.6
223.8
222.1
250.3
300.1
376.3
414.1
474.7
303.3
344.2
354.7
365.6
379.5
405.3
387.3
390.4
433.8
444.7
458.3
472.0
480.7
487.8
498.0
507.4
537.4
Manufacturing
109.3
112.3
92.7
96.3
116.7
151.6
181.3
205.5
113.8
142.2
149.7
138.8
151.6
166.2
161.9
170.3
194.5
198.4
197.1
204.8
210.5
209.7
208.2
221.0
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Includes industries not shown separately.
Profits
before
tax
Wholesale
20.4
17.2
20.6
23.0
24.3
29.4
26.9
38.3
24.8
25.4
28.1
33.8
27.3
28.6
25.5
20.3
28.5
33.2
37.2
30.8
37.7
47.4
49.0
49.5
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
138.9
151.9
163.1
169.5
195.8
216.2
264.4
304.8
198.3
204.2
203.2
211.6
220.0
230.2
255.5
260.8
266.8
274.4
300.7
303.7
305.7
309.1
326.8
333.0
339.1
67.9
79.4
77.7
93.9
104.5
132.3
145.0
142.8
100.1
119.7
108.9
131.0
141.6
147.5
145.6
145.1
145.0
144.5
138.0
146.4
141.8
144.9
140.3
142.3
144.3
-17.5
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-8.5
-16.1
-24.3
-2.5
.2
-4.8
-4.3
-15.1
-21.2
-23.6
-50.3
-37.8
-9.3
.4
-5.1
-5.4
-2.7
3.3
3.5
5.9
'4.9
Retail
20.7
20.6
26.1
32.2
38.9
46.0
41.9
48.9
41.4
42.7
41.6
47.4
47.2
47.8
41.0
42.3
42.2
42.1
46.0
50.6
50.6
48.3
55.1
54.9
348.1
371.7
374.2
406.4
465.4
535.1
622.6
676.6
459.6
508.9
475.1
525.3
556.2
583.9
610.7
615.0
630.6
634.1
664.9
682.2
679.1
680.0
708.4
719.8
740.8
141.3
140.5
133.4
143.0
165.2
186.6
213.2
229.0
161.2
184.9
163.0
182.8
194.6
206.2
209.6
209.1
218.8
215.3
226.2
232.2
231.6
226.0
241.2
244.5
257.4
206.8
231.2
240.8
263.4
300.2
348.5
409.4
447.6
298.4
324.0
312.1
342.5
361.6
377.7
401.0
405.9
411.8
418.8
438.7
450.0
447.5
454.0
467.2
475.3
483.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)
dollars rose $35.5 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $2.6 billion. There was an increase of $49.5
billion in inventories, following an increase of $77.6 billion in the second quarter.
BILUONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOUARS
BILUONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS
1,300
1,300
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1,200
_ y
1,100
1,000
V
900
x^I
800
700
^
I
\
GRC SS PRIVA1[EDOME snc
INVEST WENT
x
^v,/
„'-
— •*. —
•»
\
.-'-
X
300
•x*
/
-100
1
1
1 1
1982
E 1
1983
800
s
.^
700
600
400
. .—
.^••— '"
k
1 1 1
1
1984
1985
t
I
1
1
1986
1
.»•""•""•
_._
300
200
'** "" ^s
0
900
500
CHANC,E IN BUS NESS
'ENTORIE
•».—•'*'
100
s
.--"
R ESIDENTI/M.
FIXE 3 INVEST/AENT
\
\
400
200
s
NONRES IDENTIAl
WED IN\^ESTMEN '
/"
•s.
1,000
r
s
\~^
1,100
'
r/
\
/
600
500
p>
1,200
/
\J
l l l
i i i
i l l
l l l
i i l
t i i
t i i
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
,'^- X
111
1994
SOURCE: DEByOMENT OF CCWMSICE
+ -'
,'N
100
0
1 t 1
\ 1 1
1 1 1
1995
1996
1997
-100
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Fixed investment
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993- in
IV
1994- I
II
Ill
IV
1995 I
II
III
IV
1996- I
.
.
..
.
n
rv
in
1997- I
n
iii'
....
..
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Nonresidential
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
Structures
Total
Total
863.5
815.0
738.1
790.4
863.6
975.7
991.5
1,069.1
832.0
805.8
741.3
783.4
842.8
915.5
962.1
1,041.7
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
600.2
648.4
706.5
771.7
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
170.8
172.5
179.9
188.7
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
429.6
476.8
528.3
586.0
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.6
267.0
257.0
272.1
858.6
904.0
844.5
880.8
602.3
625.6
430.7
452.9
242.2
255.1
939.9
987.8
972.2
1,003.0
887.8
913.2
922.7
938.5
626.2
641.2
653.2
672.9
171.7
173.1
166.3
174.5
174.0
175.0
460.6
467.3
480.0
499.1
261.3
271.5
269.4
265.9
1,005.8
977.5
982.0
1,000.8
695.7
705.4
708.2
716.8
179.0
180.9
181.2
178.6
518.1
525.9
528.5
540.5
1,012.2
1,059.2
1,100.3
1,104.8
955.8
954.0
962.3
976.3
1,001.5
1,035.7
1,060.9
1,068.7
736.9
759.7
789.3
800.8
557.4
577.1
602.9
606.7
1,149.2
1,197.1
1,205.5
1,079.0
1,111.4
1,148.2
808.9
837.0
872.5
182.1
185.6
190.0
196.9
195.9
193.5
195.1
261.2
250.4
255.5
260.8
266.1
277.2
274.1
271.1
616.6
649.3
685.3
273.3
278.2
280.8
.VOTE.—Sec p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type.
Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates
for the detailed components do not add to thy chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi-
Change in business
.ones
ate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Total
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.0
22.1
60.6
27.3
25.0
15.3
24.2
53.1
75.9
49.7
63.6
48.5
21.6
17.0
22.2
8.0
21.3
37.9
32.9
63.7
77.6
49.5
Nonfarm
33.5
7.8
-1.2
2.0
29.5
49.0
35.7
22.5
27.8
26.9
39.6
59.6
38.2
58.7
54.7
34.0
29.6
24.4
14.5
17.3
31.6
26.5
58.3
70.1
40.6
REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nonresidential
Period
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993:
III
IV
1994: I
n
in
rv
1995:
I .. .
n
m
rv
1996- I
II
m
IV
1997: I
n
ni'
1
2
3
Total
nonresidential
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
600.2
648.4
706.5
771.7
602.3
625.6
626.2
641.2
653.2
672.9
695.7
705.4
708.2
716.8
736.9
759.7
789.3
800.8
808.9
837.0
872.5
Total1
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
170.8
172.5
179.9
188.7
171.7
173.1
166.3
174.5
174.0
175.0
179.0
180.9
181.2
178.6
182.1
185.6
190.0
196.9
195.9
193.5
195.1
Kesidential
Producers' durable equipment
Structures
Structures
Information processing
and related equipment
Nonresidential
buildings,
including
farm
Utilities
150.2
152.0
126.9
113.2
115.3
119.9
128.8
140.0
117.1
118.5
114.3
123.1
120.6
121.8
125.5
129.4
130.1
130.3
132.7
137.0
141.7
148.4
150.1
147.1
148.6
30.9
28.1
32.0
34.5
31.8
29.9
30.0
29.3
31.0
31.0
30.3
29.6
29.8
29.8
30.4
30.4
30.1
29.2
29.7
29.1
28.7
29.5
27.5
28.7
28.0
Mining
exploration,
shafts,
and
wells
Total"
13.9
16.1
15.7
13.3
16.0
15.8
14.3
13.9
16.4
16.2
15.1
15.1
16.2
16.7
16.3
14.2
13.8
13.1
13.6
13.9
14.1
13.8
13.6
13.0
13.4
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
429.6
476.8
528.3
586.0
430.7
452.9
460.6
467.3
480.0
499.1
518.1
525.9
528.5
540.5
557.4
577.1
602.9
606.7
616.6
649.3
685.3
Total
Computers
and
peripheral
equipment2
Other
116.2
116.2
117.8
134.2
147.9
165.1
201.8
253.1
152.5
155.5
158.1
160.8
166.1
175.6
184.5
199.3
205.2
218.2
232.8
244.8
264.3
270.4
281.4
296.9
321.2
29.4
29.4
32.4
43.9
56.1
67.2
102.8
160.8
58.4
61.7
62.2
64.1
67.1
75.3
82.7
97.2
106.8
124.4
138.7
152.0
170.0
182.4
195.8
216.1
240.9
88.1
88.2
85.9
90.2
92.3
99.4
107.0
116.3
94.6
94.8
96.8
97.8
100.2
102.8
105.1
107.9
107.2
107.8
111.7
114.0
120.3
119.3
121.5
124.4
131.8
Includes other items, not shown separately.
Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.
Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.
Industrial
equipment
101.5
95.0
88.3
89.3
96.5
105.5
113.4
117.0
96.5
102.0
102.8
103.8
106.7
108.9
112.1
114.9
114.1
112.5
114.8
118.8
117.6
116.9
116.8
123.5
125.7
Transportation
and
related
equipment
78.9
81.2
81.7
86.2
98.3
113.2
118.9
125.0
94.8
105.2
108.8
110.0
113.5
120.5
124.0
117.3
115.7
118.6
119.2
121.8
129.5
129.7
127.5
136.0
146.5
Total
residential3
Total
Single
family
Multifamily
Other
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.6
267.0
257.0
272.1
242.2
255.1
261.3
271.5
269.4
265.9
261.2
250.4
255.5
260.8
266.1
277.2
274.1
271.1
273.3
278.2
280.8
237.0
214.5
187.6
219.5
236.2
260.3
250.0
265.0
235.7
248.6
254.8
264.8
262.7
259.0
254.3
243.6
248.5
253.8
259.1
270.0
266.9
263.9
265.9
270.8
273.2
121.9
110.4
96.4
116.5
127.1
140.1
126.9
136.6
126.8
134.3
139.4
144.5
140.5
136.1
131.4
123.1
124.3
128.9
133.1
138.6
138.3
136.2
136.2
136.5
136.6
23.3
19.7
15.4
13.1
10.6
13.6
16.9
18.6
11.0
10.7
11.4
13.0
14.7
15.5
16.4
16.3
17.2
17.7
18.9
20.2
17.5
18.0
19.6
20.4
19.4
91.8
84.4
75.7
89.9
98.6
106.5
106.7
110.2
97.9
103.5
103.8
107.2
107.6
107.6
106.8
104.7
107.6
107.7
107.5
111.7
111.5
110.0
110.5
114.4
117.8
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not Mid to the chained-dollar value of ODP or to any
intermediate aggregfates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS
[Billions of dollars]
By industry
Period
1993"
1994 2
1995 3
1996 4
1
Total
expenditures
489.7
549.9
594.5
603.4
Total
488.2
547.8
591.7
600.7
Mining
and
construction
31.2
36.1
36.0
33.6
Manufacturing
Total
134.1
153.3
172.3
184.8
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
66.4
78.9
91.4
100.2
67.7
74.4
80.9
84.6
Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey,
2
Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data
are scheduled for release in summer 1996.
3
Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. Final data will
be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
4
Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 19% Investment Plans Survey.
10
Transportation
Communications
30.6
33.3
37.0
35.2
37.1
41.5
46.0
46.3
Utilities
41.3
42.2
42.8
40.6
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
60.3
68.9
75.1
71.9
Finance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
40.2
46.8
57.3
57.7
Services
111.8
123.5
123.7
129.4
Serving
multiple
industries
1.7
2.2
1.5
1.3
Not
distributed
by
Industry
1.4
2.2
2.8
2.7
NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.
Data for 1993 from Annual Capital Expenditures: 1993.
The Business Investment and Plans release has been discontinued effective with release of
the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will be available
annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In October, employment rose by 179,000 and unemployment fell by 285,000.
MILL) ONS OF PERSONS *
MILLIONS OF PERSC NS*
138
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
134
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
_^
f-
130
^_ -^—^-^ l
126
r*
p^.
'
^,
"
r—'
— x-— —
138
134
130
126
^
-
122
122
S~"~'"
118
114
"'
-
118
\
CIVILIAhI
EMPLOYMi NT
-
114
110
110
N
'
UNEMPLOYMI NT
12 —
-^
8
*
"
12
*—
8
--^~_-^~
-^
4 ,
0
4
mnliim ,, ,l,|m |,
1989
1990
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 !
M
1992
1991
,,
1 1 1 1 11 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 11
1994
1993
1995
1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
1996
*I6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Civilian employment
Period
1987
1988
1989 3
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 4
1995
1996
1996- Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan3
Feb
Mar
May
July
. 3 ..
Sept
Oct
.
Civilian
noninstitutional
population
NSA
182,753
184,613
186,393
189,164
190,925
192,805
194,838
196,814
198,584
200,591
201,273
201,463
201,636
202,285
202,388
202,513
202,674
202,832
203,000
203,166
203,364
203,570
203,767
Civilian
labor
force
119,865
121,669
123,869
125,840
126,346
128,105
129,200
131,056
132,304
133,943
134,636
134,831
135,022
135,848
135,634
136,319
136,098
136,173
136,200
136,290
136,480
136,467
136,361
Nonagricultural
Total
112,440
114,968
117,342
118,793
117,718
118,492
120,259
123,060
124,900
126,708
127,617
127,644
127,855
128,580
128,430
129,175
129,384
129,639
129,364
129,708
129,804
129,715
129,894
Agricultural
3,208
3,169
3,199
3,223
3,269
3,247
3,115
3,409
3,440
3,443
109,232
111,800
114,142
115,570
114,449
115,245
117,144
119,651
121,460
123,264
3,450
3,354
3,426
3,468
3,292
3,386
3,497
3,430
3,391
3,482
3,383
3,450
3,303
124,167
124,290
124,429
125,112
125,138
125,789
125,887
126,209
125,973
126,226
126,421
126,265
126,591
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slaek work, material shortages, inability to find
fiilltime work, etc.
2
Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and
unemployment as percent of civilian labor force.
3
Mot strictly comparable with earlier data.
Total
Percent2
Unemployment
Part time
for
economic
reasons'
5,122
4,965
4,657
4,950
5,874
6,240
6,230
4,414
4,279
4,123
4,118
3,815
4,162
4,163
4,098
3,937
4,235
3,806
3,782
3,872
3,854
3,728
3,726
Total
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,019
7,187
7,167
7,268
7,205
7,144
6,714
6,534
6,836
6,583
6,677
6,752
6,467
15
weeks
and
over
1,983
1,610
1,375
1,525
2,357
3,408
3,094
2,860
2,363
2,316
2,294
2,184
2,179
2,155
2,163
2,064
2,092
2,071
2,063
2,157
2,012
2,127
1,983
Not in
labor
force
62,888
62,944
62,523
63,324
64,578
64,700
65,638
65,758
66,280
66,647
66,637
66,632
66,614
66,437
66,754
66,194
66,577
66,659
66,800
66,876
66,884
67,102
67,407
Labor
force
participation
rate
Employment/
population
ratio
Unemployment
rate
65.6
65.9
66.5
66.5
66.2
66.4
66.3
66.6
66.6
66.8
66.9
66.9
67.0
67.2
67.0
67.3
67.2
67.1
67.1
67.1
67.1
67.0
66.9
61.5
62.3
63.0
62.8
61.7
61.5
61.7
62.5
62.9
63.2
63.4
63.4
63.4
63.6
63.5
63.8
63.8
63.9
63.7
63.8
63.8
63.7
63.7
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.7
4
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire.
NOTE.—Data beginning January 1997 reflect revised population controls. See Employment
and Earnings, February 1997, for details.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT BATES
In October, the unemployment rote fell to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent in September.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
TEENAGERS .
(16-19)
20
15
10
10
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
0 U
1993
1994
1996
1995
•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990 ..
1991
1992
1993 ...
1994 2
1995
1996 ... .
1996- Oct
Nov ..
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
1
a
All
civilian
workers
Both
sexes
16-19
years
Expe-
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
6.4
7.1
6.4
5.4
4.8
4.6
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.8
16.9
15.3
15.0
15.5
18.7
20.1
19.0
17.6
17.3
16.7
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.7
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.9
4.8
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.2
3.8
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.0
16.3
16.8
16.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.1
White
17.0
17.5
16.4
15.4
15.6
16.8
16.4
16.4
16.7
15.3
Revised definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994.
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over.
12
By selected groups
By race
By sex and age
Black
and
other
11.6
10.4
10.0
10.1
11.1
12.7
11.7
10.5
9.6
9.3
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.0
9.3
9.1
8.2
8.2
8.4
8.1
rienced
Married
men,
spouse
present
Black
wage
and
salary
workers
13.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
12.5
14.2
13.0
11.5
10.4
10.5
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.8
11.3
10.7
9.8
10.3
10.4
9.4
9.3
9.6
9.5
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.3
6.6
7.2
6.6
5.9
5.4
5.2
3.9
3.3
3.0
3.4
4.4
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.0
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
Women
Pull-time
workers '
Part-time1
workers
9.2
8.1
8.1
8.3
9.3
10.0
9.7
8.9
8.0
8.2
6.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.3
6.9
6.4
6.2
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.2
6.0
6.0
5.8
8.5
8.8
8.4
9.1
9.0
9.1
7.5
7.6
8.0
7.4
8.1
7.7
7.7
5.1
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.6
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.7
6.0
5.7
5.7
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.2
who
maintain
families
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of ijabor Statistics.
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
PROGRAMS
In October, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27
weeks and over rose; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemployment
rose to 16.6 weeks and the median duration fell to 7.6 weeks.
PER<:ENT
70
DISTRIBUTION *
PER CENT DISTRIBUTION *
70
DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
60
60
50
50
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
v-
LESS THAN
5 WEEKS
/
40
»*yA/v
30
5-14
WEEKS
20
40
Uy <y\APsA-^ w^
/s'V-
JOB LOSER s-^
^
,\
^VrWVAN
v
•J\
30
REENTRANT
S
v--
27 WEEKS
AND OVEI
20
V"
JO B
^pv /*^^^i^
15-26
WEEKS
10
A^_
10
LEAVERS
/-~-v V^/~- -A_
N EW ENTRAN rs
0
iniliim
1993
innliiin
lllllilllH
1994
1995
1
0
1996
milmn n i n 1 1 1 1 H i n 1 1 ! n n | i i 1 1 1 ! > n i i 1 II
1993
1997
1995
1994
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
.I/BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JO3 LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1996
1 1 ! 1 1 1 !1
1997
COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Keason for unemployment:
percent distribution
Duration of unemployment
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
Number of weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
Job
losers1
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
State
programs
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemployment,
"all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2
Weekly average, thousands
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 3
1994
1995
1996
1996 Oct
,
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Peb
May
July
Sept
Oct
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,019
7,187
7,167
7,268
7,205
7,144
6,714
6,534
6,836
6,583
6,677
6,752
6,467
43.7
46.0
48.6
46.3
40.3
35.1
36.5
34.1
36.5
36.4
35.9
38.9
37.1
39-0
36.3
37.4
35.7
38.1
37.3
35.7
38.5
36.7
40.6
29.6
30.0
30.3
32.0
32.4
29.4
28.9
30.1
31.6
31.6
31.8
31.0
32.7
31.0
33.4
33.6
32.7
30.6
32.5
81.5
31.6
31.8
28.9
12.7
12.0
11.2
11.7
14.4
15.1
14.5
15.5
14.6
14.6
14.9
14.0
13.5
13.1
14.4
14.1
16.0
16.3
15.3
16.5
13.8
15.4
13.7
14.0
12.1
9.9
10.0
12.9
20.3
20.1
20.3
17.3
17.4
17.3
16.1
16.7
16.9
15.9
15.0
15.7
15.0
14.9
16.3
16.0
16.2
16.8
1
Beginning' January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.
-Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, !*m;rto Rico, and Virgii; Islands), ex-servicemen (IJ('X), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (KR) programs included through 1993. Also indudes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental
compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.
3
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for easier periods.
14.5
13.5
11.9
12.0
13.7
17.7
18.0
18.8
16.6
16.7
16.7
16.0
15.8
16.0
16.0
15.3
15.2
15.1
15.1
16.6
15.9
16.0
16.6
6.5
5.9
4.8
5.3
6.8
8.7
8.3
9.2
8.3
8.3
8.3
7.7
7.8
7.7
8.4
7.9
8.3
7.7
7.7
8.5
7.8
8.4
7.6
48.0
46.1
45.7
48.1
54.4
56.1
54.2
47.7
46.9
46.6
45.1
45.3
44.4
44.8
43.7
44.6
44.3
44.1
46.2
44.5
46.0
45.0
45.2
13.0
14.7
15.7
14.8
11.6
10.4
10.9
9.9
11.1
10.7
11.3
11.5
11.7
12.3
10.9
11.0
11.2
12.2
12.2
12.6
13.7
12.9
11.2
26.6
27.0
28.2
27.4
24.8
23.8
24.6
34.8
34.1
34.7
35.4
35.1
35.3
34.6
36.6
35.4
36.0
35.0
34.6
34.4
32.2
33.7
34.9
12.4
12.2
10.4
9.8
9.2
9.7
10.3
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.1
8.6
8.3
8.9
9.0
8.6
8.7
7.1
8.5
8.2
8.4
8.6
2,300
2,081
2,158
2,522
3,342
3,245
2,751
2,670
2,575
2,594
2,470
2,444
2,518
2,453
2,375
2,294
2,274
2,263
2,326
2,300
2,308
2,233
2,229
328
310
330
388
447
408
341
340
357
356
334
338
355
334
311
312
333
326
341
319
325
308
308
2,369
2,135
2,205
2,575
3,408
3,348
2,845
2,739
2,636
2,649
2,046
2,105
'2,750
'3,035
3,031
'2,929
'2,502
2,069
'2.208
'2il73
'2,043
1,975
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and
initial claims).
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 284,000 in October.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
38
20
40
18
GOC5DS-PRODUC NG
INDUSTRIES
_
—
\
|||m
li It 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i m l i m i
' 1993
1995
1994
mll |
Illllllllll
1996
1997
1993
"
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Thousands of wage and salary workers;' seasonally adjusted}
Goods-producing industries
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 .
1994
1995
1996 . .
1996: Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug r
Sepf
Ocf
Total
nonagricultural
employment
101,958
105,209
107,884
109,403
108,249
108,601
110,713
114,163
117,191
119,523
120,248
120,450
120,659
120,909
121,162
121,344
121,671
121,834
122,056
122,440
122,492
122,761
123,045
Service-producing industries
Manufacturing
2
Total
24,674
25,125
25,254
24,905
23,745
23,231
23,352
23,908
24,265
24,431
24,479
24,508
24,540
24,581
24,653
24,670
24,667
24,702
24,714
24,713
24,765
24,756
24,827
Construction
4,958
5,098
5,171
5,120
4,650
4,492
4,668
4,986
5,160
5,400
5,467
5,495
5,521
5,542
5,604
5,609
5,599
5,628
5,622
5,625
5,637
5,637
5,657
Total
18,999
19,314
19,391
19,076
18,406
18,104
18,075
18,321
18,524
18,457
18,442
18,442
18,448
18,465
18,475
18,489
18,495
18,498
18,518
18,514
18,555
18,543
18,597
NonDurable durable
goods
goods
Total
11,154
11,363
11,394
11,109
10,569
10,277
10,221
10,448
10,683
10,766
10,780
10,791
10,803
10,821
10,836
10,848
10,856
10,864
10,891
10,910
10,957
10,944
10,990
77,284
80,084
82,630
84,497
84,504
85,370
87,361
90,256
92,925
95,092
95,769
95,942
96,119
96,328
96,509
96,674
97,004
97,132
97,342
97,727
97,727
98,005
98,218
7,845
7,951
7,997
7,968
7,837
7,827
7,854
7,873
7,841
7,691
7,662
7,651
7,645
7,644
7,639
7,641
7,639
7,634
7,627
7,604
7,598
7,599
7,607
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments
who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes
proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Tola)
in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes,
bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
Transportation and
public
utilities
5,362
5,512
5,614
5,777
5,755
5,718
5,811
5,984
6,132
6,261
6,293
6,303
6,288
6,351
6,376
6,405
6,421
6,431
6,434
6,443
6,289
6,459
6,488
Wholesale
trade
5,848
6,030
6,187
6,173
6,081
5,997
5,981
6,162
6,378
6,483
6,538
6,549
6,559
6,570
6,593
6,611
6,622
6,630
6,634
6,664
6,675
6,688
6,710
Retail
trade
18,422
19,023
19,475
19,601
19,284
19,356
19,773
20,507
21,187
21,625
21,791
21,847
21,912
21,917
21,922
21,945
22,029
22,026
22,079
22,159
22,189
22,208
22,245
Finance,
insurance, Services
and real
estate
6,533
6,630
6,668
6,709
6,646
6,602
6,757
6,896
6,806
6,899
6,941
6,949
6,962
6,971
6,980
6,992
7,019
7,029
7,034
7,058
7,068
7,079
7,102
24,110
25,504
26,907
27,934
28,336
29,052
30,197
31,579
33,117
34,377
34,717
34,800
34,884
34,990
35,091
35,176
35,334
35,451
35,522
35,684
35,702
35,828
35,928
Government
Total
17,010
17,386
17,779
18,304
18,402
18,645
18,841
19,128
19,305
19,447
19,489
19,494
19,514
19,529
19,547
19,545
19,579
19,565
19,639
19,719
19,804
19,743
19,745
Federal
2,943
2,971
2,988
3,085
2,966
2,969
2,915
2,870
2,822
2,757
2,732
2,732
2,728
2,723
2,716
2,709
2,708
2,703
2,694
2,689
2,690
2,690
2,687
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job
are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where
persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGHICULTUHAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonswpervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross hourly earnings
Average weekly hours
Total
private
nonagri~
cultural "
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Oet
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.5
34.3
34.4
34,5
34.7
34.5
34.4
34.4
34.5
34.7
34.4
34.8
34.8
34.5
34.5
34.6
34.4
34.6
34.5
34.5
May
July
Sept'
Oet"
Total
41.0
41.1
41.0
40.8
40.7
41.0
41.4
42.0
41.6
41.6
41.7
41.7
42.0
41.8
41.9
'42.1
42.1
42.0
41.8
41.8
41.8
41.8
42.0
Average gross weekly earnings
Total private
nonagricultural *
Total private
nonagricultural *
Manufacturing
Overtime
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
Current
dollars
$8.98
9.28
9.66
10.01
10.32
10.57
10.83
11.12
11.43
11.81
11.91
11.98
12.03
12.05
12.10
12.14
12.14
12.19
12.23
12.24
12.31
12.35
12.41
1982
dollars*
Manufacturing
$7.73
7.69
7.64
7.52
7.45
7.41
7.39
7.40
7.39
7.43
7.42
7.44
7.45
7.46
7.47
7.49
7.49
7.52
7.54
7.53
7.56
7.56
7.59
$9.91
10.19
10.48
10.83
11.18
11.46
11.74
12.07
12.37
12.78
12.87
12.93
12.99
13.02
13.03
13.07
13.07
13.11
13.12
13.11
13.20
13.22
13.35
Current dollars
Current
dollars
1982
dollars2
Manufacturing
Construfition
Retail
trade
$312.50
322.02
334.24
345.35
353.98
363.61
373.64
385.86
394.34
406.26
409.70
413.31
417.44
414.52
421.08
422.47
418.83
420.56
423.16
421.06
425.93
426.08
428.15
$269.16
266.79
264.22
259.47
255.40
254.89
254.87
256.73
255.07
255.51
255.26
256.71
258.64
256.51
260.09
260.78
258.54
259.60
260.89
259.11
261.63
260.92
261.71
$406.31
418.81
429.68
441.86
455.03
469.86
486.04
506.94
514.59
531.65
536.68
539.18
545.58
544.24
545.96
550.25
550.25
550.62
548.42
548.00
551.76
552.60
560.70
$480.44
495.73
513.17
526.01
533.40
537.70
553.63
573.00
587.00
602.94
606.06
604.50
610,34
607.18
612,65
614.62
616.95
626.85
617.27
622.44
618.76
627.90
624.23
$178.70
183.62
188.72
194.40
198.48
205.06
209.95
216.46
221.47
230.11
233.28
234.96
236.64
235.87
238.91
240.08
238.71
239.29
239.87
239.62
243.28
242.50
243.92
Percent change from
a year earlier, total
private nonagricuitural 3
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
-1.0
2.5
3.0
3.8
3.3
2.5
2,7
2.8
3.3
2.2
3.0
2.5
39
5.5
5.1
5.2
5.4
4.6
4.4
3.6
3.9
4,4
3.1
4.3
ft
-1.0
-1.8
-1.6
~ 9
-.0
.7
-.6
.2
-.5
.6
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.7
2,2
2.3
1.4
1.8
2.2
1.0
2.3
3
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics,
'Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and
clerical workers (CPI-W) (on a 1982=100 base).
2
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
Percent change from
Index (.June 1989 = 100)
3 months earlier
Total
compensation
Period
Wages and
salaries
Benefits *
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
12 months earlier
Benefits '
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
3.3
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.1
2.6
3.1
3.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.4
Benefits '
Not seasonally adjusted
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
93.1
97.6
102.3
107.0
111.7
115.6
119.8
123.5
126.7
130.6
94.1
98.0
102.0
106.1
110.0
112.9
116.4
119.7
123.1
127.3
1994- Mar
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.6
124.4
125.2
126,0
126.9
127.7
128.8
129.7
130.6
131.4
132.5
133.6
117.1
118.1
119.0
119.8
120.6
121.5
122.4
123.2
124.4
125.5
126.4
127.4
128.5
129.7
130.9
1987:
19881989:
19901991:
19921993:
19941995:
1996-
90.5
96.7
102.6
109.4
116.2
122.2
128.3
133.0
135.9
138.6
Seasonally adjusted
Sept
Dec
1995- Mar
.. ..
Sept
Dec
1996- Mar
Sept
Dee
1997- Mar
Sent
.
....
' Employer eosts for employee benefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free
from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
130.3
131.5
132.8
133.5
133.9
134.6
135.3
136.0
136.0
137.0
137.7
138.7
138.7
139.7
140.4
0.8
.8
.8
.7
.6
.6
.6
.7
.6
.9
.7
.7
.6
.8
,8
3.4
6.9
6.1
6.6
6.2
5.2
5.0
3.7
2.2
2.0
Not seasonally adjusted
0.5
.9
.8
,7
.7
.7
.7
.7
1.0
.9
.7
.8
.9
.9
.9
1.1
.9
1.0
.5
.3
.5
.5
.5
0
.7
.5
.7
0
.7
.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.6
4.4
3.9
4.0
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Data exclude farm and household workers.
Souree: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of ail
persons
Period
Business
sector
Nont'arm
business
sector
Hour, of all
ons2
Output '
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Compensation per
hour 3
Business
sector
Nonfann
business
sector
Real compensation
per 1011 r4
Business
sector
Unit tabor
costs
Nonfann
business
sector
Business
sector
Implicit price
deflator5
Nonfann
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfann
business
sector
Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1993- III
IV
1994- I
II
Ill
IV
1995:
I
II
III
IV
1996- I
II
m
IV
1997: I
II'
Hip*
100.0
102.5
102.6
100.2
100.0
102.6
106.3
108.9
111.0
99.9
102.5
102.7
100.2
100.0
102.8
106.4
109.0
111.3
83.5
85.8
90.7
95.1
100.0
102.6
104.3
106.9
110.4
83.6
85.8
90.6
95.1
100.0
102.3
104.1
106.7
110.1
99.0
97.1
97.4
97.9
100.0
99.6
98.7
98.4
98.7
99.1
97.1
97.3
97.9
100.0
99.3
98.5
98.3
98.4
88.2
89.9
94.4
98.3
100.0
102.4
103.7
106.3
108.2
87.8
89.7
94.1
98.1
100.0
102.2
103.6
106.0
107.9
86.8
90.4
94.1
97.7
100.0
102.5
104.8
107.2
109.2
102.9
103.6
103.2
103.9
102.5
103.0
99.6
99.2
99.3
98.9
103.0
102.3
102.5
102.1
102.7
103.4
104.5
106.1
106.7
107.7
104.6
106.1
106.8
107.8
102.9
103.3
104.0
104.0
104.4
105.1
99.5
98.8
98.3
98.3
99.2
98.7
98.1
98.2
103.3
103.2
103.9
104.3
103.2
103.1
103.8
104.2
103.9
104.4
105.1
105.8
108.5
108.4
109.3
109.7
105.8
106.6
107.3
108.1
98.3
98.3
98.4
98.6
98.2
98.1
98.3
98.4
105.6
106.1
106.7
107.0
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.6
106.5
107.0
107.4
107.8
106.8
107.2
107.5
107.8
111.7
113.5
113.8
115.3
108.5
108.3
109.2
109.5
109.6
110.7
111.3
112.2
103.8
103.9
104.2
105.0
105.6
106.4
107.1
107.9
86.4
90.0
93.8
97.6
100.0
102.5
104.9
107.3
109.1
102.6
103.3
103.8
Wf.5
105.3
106.0
108.7
109.8
110.6
111.5
112.8
113.7
114.9
98.3
98.5
98.6
98.5
99.1
99.6
100.1
107.1
107.7
108.8
109.2
106.9
107.4
108.5
108.9
109.7
110.0
109.9
108.4
108.9
109.6
110.0
113.3
113.7
113.7
108.9
110.1
111.0
111.9
113.1
114.0
115.3
98.4
98.8
98.9
98.9
116.9
118.0
119.3
109.8
111.0
111.6
112.6
113.8
114.2
114.1
110.6
111.0
111.3
108.4
108.8
109.4
109.8
110.5
110.9
111.2
4.0
1.9
5.0
4.1
1.7
2.4
1.2
2.6
1.8
3.6
2.1
5.0
4.2
1.9
2.2
1.4
2.4
1.8
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.8
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.3
1.9
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.3
1.7
6.6
3.9
1.0
-2.6
3.5
2.1
1.6
2.7
3.8
1.7
1.5
2.6
2.0
2.1
2.7
2.5
2.9
1.6
1.7
1.3
2.1
2.5
3.2
2.4
94.6
95.4
96.1
96.7
100.0
100.2
100.6
100.5
102.0
99.9
101.0
95.2
95.7
96.2
96.9
100.0
100.1
100.5
100.7
102.0
100.7
100.7
100.5
100.7
100.6
100.7
100.4
100.8
94.6
97.8
98.6
96.9
100.0
102.7
107.0
109.5
113.3
102.8
104.6
105.2
106.9
107.3
108.5
100.2
100.4
100.6
101.1
100.3
100.5
100.8
101.2
108.7
108.7
109.8
110.7
95.1
98.1
98.8
97.1
100.0
103.0
107.0
109.8
113.6
103.2
104.8
105.2
106.9
107.3
108.6
108.9
108.9
110.2
111.0
101.6
102.3
102.0
102.5
101.7
102.2
102.0
102.4
111.4
113.2
113.5
115.0
102.9
103.5
104.6
102.8
103.4
104.5
116.6
117.8
119.0
100.0
100.8
99.4
99.9
100.5
109.9
110.1
110.2
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
4.1
3.2
.7
-1.8
3.0
3.0
3.9
2.6
3.5
-.8
2.6
3.9
6.1
3.2
2.5
.1
-2.3
-.2
2.6
3.7
2.4
2.0
2.7
4.0
2.0
2.7
3.3
2.6
.2
-2.5
-.2
2.8
3.5
2.4
2.2
4.6
2.8
5.7
4.8
5.2
2.6
1.6
2.5
3.3
4.4
2.7
5.5
4.9
5.2
2.3
1.7
2.5
3.1
0.5
-1.9
.3
.6
2.1
-.4
3.3
4.5
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.5
1.8
1.6
-.4
-.4
3.5
6.3
2.3
3.8
2.9
2.8
5.9
2.6
3.7
3.0
-.2
1.7
2.5
.9
-2.5
-2.0
.0
-3
-1.6
1.2
-2.0
-2.3
.3
.8
.2
4.2
3.0
1.6
6.6
1.5
5.0
1.2
.2
4.6
3.0
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.7
3.2
.3
1.3
2.8
3^5
1.0
2.9
-.6
3.5
1.4
2.6
3.2
2.6
3.2
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.9
-.2
.1
.5
.7
-.1
.6
.5
4.8
2.3
1.9
1.2
6.1
3.9
-.1
-1.5
4.4
-.2
2.4
1.6
4.2
2.3
1.6
1.3
1.9
2.2
-1.0
1.8
2.8
6.6
.9
5.4
2.6
6.8
1.0
5.4
.6
4.0
2.0
3.4
.6
4.4
2.1
3.6
2.7
4.7
3.3
3.3
2.8
4.4
2.9
3.3
-.6
1.3
.6
-.1
-.5
1.0
.2
-.1
.5
2.2
4.4
1.4
.9
2.1
3.9
1.5
2.3
2.1
2.4
1.7
2.3
1.7
2.0
1.7
1.4
2.4
4.5
5.9
3.9
4.2
5.6
3.8
4.3
4.0
1.5
-.2
4.2
1.4
-.1
4.4
3.3
4.6
4.5
3.3
4.2
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.5
.9
.2
3.1
.9
-.3
2.0
1.5
1.0
2.4
1.4
1.1
0.6
.8
.7
.7
3.4
.2
.4
-.0
1.5
0.7
.6
.5
.7
3.2
.1
.4
.2
1.3
3.8
3.4
.8
17
3.2
2.7
4.1
2.3
3.5
1993- I
II
Ill
IV
-3.8
-1.3
.7
4.3
-4.0
-1.8
1.7
3.3
-1.2
2.7
2.8
7.1
1994:
I
-1.1
.6
-1.1
1.3
2.6
6.4
1.5
4.5
1995:
I
-.9
.0
-.7
.7
-2.1
.9
.7
2.0
-1.6
.8
1.1
1.6
2.2
2.5
-1.1
1.9
1.8
2.4
4.4
II
III
IV
II
Ill
IV
1996:
I
II
Ill
IV
1997- I
II '
HIP*
1
rt
Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contrihutions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for
the self-employed.
4
Hourly compensation divided bv the consumer price index for all urban consumers
(CI'I-U).'
5
Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index.
2
16
Q
-.3
.3
-t
-1.6
0.3
-2.0
.1
.7
2.1
-.7
-.8
-.3
.2
-1.0
n
o
3.9
-.2
2.4
1.8
3.1
1.5
1.2
1.0
NOTE.—Data relate to ail persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period anti are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from penrent changes based on indexes shown here.
*Data based on GDP data released October 31, 1997. Other data for 1997-. Ill shown elsewhere in this issue were released November 26, 1997.
Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AMD BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in October.
INDEX, 1992-100' (RATIO SCALE)
140
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
130
INDEX, 1992-100- (RATO SCALE)
150
FINAL PRODUCTS
140
120
130
110
120
BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT
V .
.^
,,
no
100
140
^
*•""
***
\
TOO ^^'
MANUFACTURING
130
-"
^
GOODS
V_.
90
DURABLE
*\
120
V
/
80
110
140
\^
%
DEFENSE
AND SPACE
EQUIPMENT
. \ ""- NONDURABLE n 1 1 1 i! 1 1 ! ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n i n
100
,f
\
,--,
^•••.•^ *••-
70
1 1 1 i 11 1 1 i i I
1 1 I1 1 1 1 1 I
UTILITIES AND MINING
II
INI Mi MM
1 t 1 ! I1 1 1 ! 1 1
1 1 i 11
1 11 i 11I t 111111I 11
PERCENT*
130
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)
120
110
XI
^i
^^^
100
nin 11 1111
1 1 1 1 1
1993
1997
1993
1 1 I!
1
1 1111 111 n 1 111i i 11n i
1994
1995
1 1! 11111 1 11
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally actuated]
Industry production indexes, 1992=100
Total industrial production
Period
Index,
1992=100
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
93.1
97.3
99.0
98.9
96.9
100.0
103.4
108.6
112.1
115.2
1996: Get
Nov
116.2
117.2
117.7
117.8
118.4
118.8
119.3
119.5
119.9
120.8
121 5
122.1
122.7
1987
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar ..
Apr
May
June
July
Au£rr
Sept'
OetP
1
2
,.
Percent changes based on unrounded indexes.
Output as percent, of capacity.
From
preceding
month
From
year
earlier
Capacity utilization
rate, percent2
Manufacturing
Percent change *
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Mining
Utilities
Total
industry
Manufacturing
4.6
4.4
1.8
-.2
-2.0
3.2
3.4
5.0
3.3
2.8
92.8
97.1
99.0
98.5
96.2
100.0
103.7
109.4
113.2
116.3
92.0
98.1
100.5
99.0
95.5
100.0
105.5
113.4
119.7
125.7
93.8
96.0
97.3
97.9
97.0
100.0
101.7
105.0
106.2
106.3
101.5
102.9
101.5
103.7
101.6
100.0
98.9
101.5
100.9
102.9
89.4
93.9
97.1
98.3
100.4
100.0
103.9
105.3
109.1
112.8
81.3
83.9
84.0
82.3
79.2
80.4
81.6
83.7
83.8
83.1
81.3
83.8
83.6
81.4
78.0
79.5
80.8
83.1
83.1
82.1
0.2
.8
.4
3.3
4.0
4.4
117.6
118.5
119.2
127.1
128.4
128.8
107.4
107.9
108.8
103.4
103.5
104.5
111.9
114.5
112.6
83.0
83.4
83.5
82.0
82.4
82.5
.1
.5
.4
.4
.1
.3
.8
.6
.5
.5
4.8
4.0
4.9
4.4
4.1
3.8
4.6
4.9
5.3
5.6
119.3
120.1
120.6
120.9
121.0
121.6
122.6
123.5
123.8
124.6
129.5
130.8
131.7
132.3
132.7
134.1
135.4
137.5
137.8
138.7
108.5
108.6
108.7
108.7
108.7
108.4
109.1
108.8
109.2
109.7
103.6
106.3
107.5
106.0
108.1
107.8
107.4
106.7
105.9
104.8
112.7
110.2
109.9
113.6
112.4
111.7
113.2
112.6
116.5
116.8
83.3
83.5
83.6
83.6
83.5
83.5
83.9
84.1
84.2
84.3
82.4
82.6
82.7
82.6
82.4
82.5
82.9
83.2
83.1
83.3
Souix-e: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1992 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Products
Materials
Final products
Intermediate products
Equipment
Consumer goods
Period
Total
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Oct
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
May
.
Julyr
Sepf
Ocf
1
.. . .
.... _ .. .
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
1
Business
Defense
and
space
equipment
Business
supplies
Total
Total
Construction
supplies
Energy
93.2
97.6
99.7
99.4
97.5
100.0
103.2
107.1
109.9
112.8
113.6
114.8
115.3
93.7
96.7
97.7
97.3
97.0
100.0
103.2
107.4
108.9
110.5
110.8
112.3
112.7
93.9
99.8
101.3
98.0
93.0
100.0
110.1
120.4
122.8
126.2
124.5
127.1
128.4
93.6
95.9
96.7
97.1
98.1
100.0
101.5
104.1
105.3
106.5
107.3
108.5
108.7
92.7
99.1
103.0
102.7
98.4
100.0
103.0
106.6
111.6
116.8
118.4
119.0
119.6
85.1
93.5
98.8
98.2
95.7
100.0
105.1
111.3
119.4
126.6
128.8
129.8
130.7
117.5
117.1
117.4
115.9
106.7
100.0
93.5
86.2
80.7
77.0
77.0
76.1
76.2
100.7
102.5
102.9
101.9
97.5
100.0
102.5
106.1
107.5
109.4
110.2
111.9
111.3
104.7
106.3
105.5
102.9
96.2
100.0
103.3
110.3
111.6
116.8
117.7
120.7
117.8
98.4
100.3
101.3
101.4
98.3
100.0
102.0
103.6
105.0
105.1
105.8
106.8
107.4
90.4
95.1
97.0
97.2
95.9
100.0
103.9
111.3
116.6
120.3
121.7
122.2
123.1
96.2
98.5
99.5
100.6
100.8
100.0
99.6
101.4
102.7
103.9
103.9
104.0
103.9
115.1
115.6
116.3
116.6
117.1
117.4
117.8
119.1
119.1
119.9
111.7
111.6
112.1
112.1
112.6
112.3
112.5
113.3
113.5
114.2
127.3
129.2
131.0
126.9
128.4
130.6
128.5
133.0
132.2
133.0
107.8
107.2
107.4
108.3
108.6
107.8
108.5
108.4
108.9
109.6
120.8
122.6
123.5
124.3
124.9
126.2
126.9
129.1
128.8
129.5
132.1
133.8
134.3
135.5
136.1
137.4
139.2
142.1
142.0
143.2
74.7
75.4
75.6
75.2
75.6
76.1
75.0
75.8
75.5
75.7
111.6
112.0
112.1
112.0
112.2
112.0
112.0
112.2
113.0
113.2
117.0
120.0
121.8
120.1
120.6
120.6
119.8
121.1
121.0
120.7
108.4
107.3
106.5
107.2
107.3
106.9
107.5
107.0
108.4
108.7
123.4
124.1
124.5
125.5
125.2
126.0
127.9
128.2
129.3
129.9
103.8
104.0
103.5
103.8
104.1
103.9
105.0
104.4
106.3
106.1
Includes oii and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.
(1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Primary metals
Period
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Get
..
Dec .
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
July
Se»f
Ocf
Industrial
machinery and
equipment
Electrical
machinery
Transportation
equipment
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
87.0
92.2
95.1
97.3
96.4
100.0
101.0
104.1
106.5
108.9
111.3
111.8
114.0
93.5
94.9
95.9
97.0
98.4
100.0
102.1
103.7
105.7
106.3
107.1
107.6
108.2
113.7
112.8
112.0
113.3
112.7
112.3
112.4
111.9
112.9
113.3
108.2
108.4
109.2
108.3
108.1
107.9
108.8
108.4
108.1
108.6
97.8
106.2
104.9
104.0
96.7
100.0
105.5
113.0
115.7
117.2
122.1
118.5
118.8
95.4
107.6
106.2
106.4
96.0
100.0
107.1
113.2
116.3
116.4
123.2
115.9
116.7
101.9
106.1
104.8
101.2
96.2
100.0
104.4
112.0
115.7
118.6
119.3
119.1
119.5
86.0
97.0
103.0
100.1
95.4
100.0
109.9
125.3
141.4
156.4
159.9
161.7
162.9
75.6
82.5
85.8
87.7
89.6
100.0
110.0
126.3
148.2
163.3
165.6
167.2
168.8
96.1
101.1
105.1
102.3
96.5
100.0
103.7
107.4
105.0
106.1
105.3
109.5
109.6
94.9
100.2
101.2
95.3
88.5
100.0
113.7
129.7
128.5
126.9
121.2
128.9
127.9
104.9
105.1
104.3
101.6
94.5
100.0
100.9
105.9
106.2
109.7
105.5
103.6
100.3
97.2
97.8
100.0
102.4
106.5
103.3
98.2
109.2
113.1
108.0
97.8
97.3
97.2
102.5
103.4
103.5
103.1
99.1
100.0
100.8
100.5
99.8
98.4
99.7
100.0
99.8
117.8
120.0
121.3
120.2
123.4
123.1
123.4
123.7
124.8
124.8
118.0
118.2
118.7
119.3
123.6
120.3
120.9
119.6
122.9
122.6
119.2
119.5
120.4
120.8
121.1
120.8
121.1
121.7
121.9
121.9
164.7
166.6
167.4
171.3
170.5
172.2
176.6
181.2
180.4
182.4
168.6
172.5
175.2
176.7
178.1
181.7
185.9
188.2
188.7
191.6
111.9
111.5
111.9
110.6
110.2
112.4
112.6
116.9
118.2
118.6
132.0
129.6
128.9
125.3
123.7
127.1
126.7
134.6
136.6
136.4
108.6
112.0
113.3
113.6
114.0
114.6
113.4
113.1
112.9
112.4
96.2
95.8
96.3
96.1
96.4
96.4
96.5
95.7
96.0
96.1
100.5
100.6
99.7
99.6
99.8
99.7
100.2
99.5
100.1
100.7
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Iron
and
steel
Fabricated
metal
products
Nondurable manufactures
Foods
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts3
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Residential
Total
New housing
units
Total'
and industrial2
Other
Federal
and
State
and
local
Total value
index
(1992=100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
Billions of dollars
441.6
455.6
469.8
468.5
424.2
452.1
478.6
519.9
534.1
568.6
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
351.0
360.9
371.6
361.1
314.1
336.2
362.7
399.4
406.8
437.1
194.7
198.1
196.6
182.9
157.8
187.8
210.5
238.9
230.7
247.2
139.9
138.9
139.2
128.0
110.6
129.6
144.1
167.9
162.9
179.4
104.4
109.6
118.0
119.4
93.7
82.2
84.4
93.3
107.9
118.8
52.0
53.2
57.1
58.8
62.6
66.2
67.8
67.2
68.2
71.1
90.6
94.7
98.2
107.5
110.1
115.8
116.0
120.5
127.3
131.5
103
104
108
98
92
100
108
'118
122
'131
Annual rates
1,019
973
961
783
577
556
589
744
862
829
Annual rates
1996- Oct
Nov
584.1
586.2
579.1
449.0
448.9
447.0
247.9
248.3
247.9
179.9
180.0
179.1
127.3
126.4
123.0
73.8
74.2
76.2
135.2
137.3
132.1
'128
'133
129
683
777
782
1997- Jan
Feb
577.1
592.4
593.9
596.9
595.8
594.2
602.3
602.3
604.8
605.5
444.4
452.0
452.7
457.6
459.9
456.9
463.5
463.7
466.6
466.4
246.7
251.4
254.0
259.9
259.7
257.3
258.8
260.0
263.7
265.6
178.3
183.4
184.1
185.2
185.3
182.8
182.8
183.7
186.6
189.8
126.8
128.2
124.5
118.3
122.3
123.4
128.2
126.1
124.1
122.8
70.9
72.5
74.2
79.4
77.9
76.3
76.5
77.6
78.7
78.0
132.7
140.3
141.2
139.3
135.9
137.3
138.8
138.6
138.3
139.1
131
'133
135
'140
'143
'142
'137
137
134
131
771
843
772
834
853
Dec
Mar
May
July
Aug'
Sept'
Ocf
1
2
3
Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
Includes hotels and motels.
F.W. Dodge series.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies,
Inc., P.W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes
New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure
Period
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1,620.5
1,488.1
1,376.1
1,192.7
1,013.9
1,199.7
1,287.6
1,457.0
1,354.1
1,476.8
1 unit
1,146.4
1,081.3
1,003.3
894.8
840.4
1,029.9
1,125.7
1,198.4
1,076.2
1,160.9
2-4 units
5 or more
units
65.3
58.8
55.2
37.5
35.6
30.7
29.4
35.0
33.7
45.2
408.7
348.0
317.6
260.4
137.9
139.0
132.6
223.5
244.1
270.8
Units
authorized
1,534.8
1,455.6
1,338.4
1,110.8
948.8
1,094.9
1,199.1
3
1,371.6
1,332.5
1,425.6
Units
completed
Homes
sold
Homes for
sale at end
of period '
Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent)2
1,668.8
1,529.8
1,422.8
1,308.0
1,090.8
1,157.5
1,192.7
1,346.9
1,312.6
1,412.9
671
676
650
534
509
610
666
670
667
757
366
368
365
321
284
265
293
336
370
322
7.7
7.7
27.4
7.2
7.4
7.4
27.3
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1996- Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec .. . .
1,470
1,407
1,486
1,353
1997- Jan
Feb .
Mar
1,375
1,554
1,479
1,483
1,402
1,503
1,465
1,395
1,507
1,528
May
June
July
Sept'
Ocf
1
1,148
1,104
1,133
1,024
45
58
60
48
277
245
293
281
1,391
1,349
1,391
1,405
1,356
1,375
1,431
1,484
768
706
788
794
331
330
327
322
1,125
1,237
1,142
1,133
1,098
1,134
1,149
1,091
1,187
I,f42
43
44
45
40
34
37
37
42
39
65
207
273
292
310
270
332
279
262
281
321
1,395
1,438
1,457
1,442
1,432
1,402
1,414
1,397
1,460
1,487
1,362
1,572
1,471
1,460
1,388
1,318
'1,320
1,321
1,436
822
826
825
765
764
802
'812
791
811
797
308
300
287
291
288
288
288
286
287
290
Seasonally adjusted.
Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993
data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
3
The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.
2
7/7
7.5
7.9
7.9
NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units
authorized are for 17,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In September, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.3 percent and inventories rose $6.6 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales fell 0.2 percent in October, after falling 0.1 percent in September.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
8ILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
,200
400
,100
350
_____ —
,000
^^^
900
_
800
700
-1—\
MA.NUFACTURIN*G AND
TRADEINVENT(DRIES
300
._
RETAIL INVENTORIES
.—_-'
250
T"
-~J
MA NUFACTURINR
•x
600
200
AN 3 TRADE SALE s
RETAIL SALES
500
i i i 1111111 i
150
RATIO'
400
1.70
INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
RCTAIL
1.60
300
1.50
1.40
A,
^/-^Pv
V
—^
^^^TN
"V~\^^ r
1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 II M i l l 1 II 1
1995
ii i nil i ii i
1.20
M 1 1 1 !1 1 1 1 1
1993
1997
1996
'•w^
**/
/ ^
ti 4ANUFACTUR NG
AND TRAD
1.30
200 ii 1 1 il i in I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1993
1994-
.r-"-.
1
I M 11 111M I M 11 1 1 11 1 11
1994
1995
^~
,mpt
1996
,,,,,|M,M
1997
* SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTED
SOURCE ofparutoacf COMMERCE
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVSBiS
Manufacturing and
trade1
Wholesale
Period
Sales 2
Inventories ;}
Sales2
Inventories:i
Inventory-sales
ratio *
Ketail
Inventories ;J
Sales *
Durable
goods
stores
Total
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade1
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Sept'
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
Mav
July
Septi*
Oct."
457,735
497,157
527,039
545,909
542,815
567,176
595,049
637,585
681,597
716,763
709,848
767,222
815,455
840,396
834,287
842,204
867,513
930,049
985,905
1,004,425
122,968
134,521
143,760
149,506
148,306
154,150
161,681
172,973
188,811
201,723
163,903
178,801
187,009
195,550
200,062
207,663
215,878
234,893
253,066
255,808
724,357
'728,163
730,646
728,760
999,312
1,004,990
1,004,540
1,004,425
203.437
204,987
205,561
205,560
737,464
747,790
745,460
746,769
742,945
750,027
757,485
752,886
762,310
1,007,618
1,011,899
1,013,376
1,017,150
1,019,025
1,026,255
1,027,787
1,030,243
1,036,851
207,506
211,801
210,195
209.926
210,008
210,772
211,041
208,336
213,093
80,453
85,587
91,818
97,981
100,497
103,999
108,055
112,826
116,585
120,997
207,836
219,047
237,234
239,773
243,275
251,994
267,497
290,128
303,750
314,183
105,481
112,453
121,347
121,105
119,039
122,948
133,624
149,840
159,767
165,997
102,355
106,594
115,887
118,668
124,236
129,046
133,873
140,288
143,983
148,186
1.50
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.53
1.48
1.44
1.41
1.42
1.39
1.55
.54
.58
.55
.54
.52
.51
1.50
1.55
1.52
254,654 204,949
255,671 '206,715
255,850 205,789
255,808 206,894
83,160 121,789
'84,168 '122,547
83,485
122,304
83,785 123,109
311,984
315,281
313,490
314,183
165,654
168,146
165,865
165,997
146,330
147,135
147,625
148,186
1.38
1.38
1.37
1.38
1.52
1.53
1.52
1.52
257,895 210,233
258,088 213,022
259,389 212,342
258,046 209,934
259,029 209,370
264,154 210,940
262,314 213,549
264,899 214,372
268,043 '214,136
213,694
124,889
85.344
87,786 125,236
87,042
125,300
85,472
124,462
84,759 124,611
85,762 125,178
87,228 126,321
88,014 126,358
'87,306 ' 126,830
86,556 127,138
313,980
315,938
315,427
317,596
316,536
317,278
318,871
316,897
320,226
165,441
167,380
167,444
168,701
167,928
168,696
169,863
168,855
170,743
148,539
148,558
147,983
148,895
148,608
148,582
149,008
148,042
149,483
1.37
1.35
1.36
1.36
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.37
1.36
1.49
1.48
1.49
1.51
1.51
1.50
1.49
1.48
1.50
128,442 138,017
146,581
153.718
154,661
162,632
172,732
185,610
193,670
203,775
1
.See pagv 2! for tnmn}fiwt»riiig.
-' Annual iiara
data are averages or
of imonthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data an; seamally
lally adjusted totals
totals for month.
20
;i
47,989
52,430
54,763
55,736
54,165
58,634
64,677
72,784
77,085
82,778
Seasonally adjust^), end of period.
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commereu. Bureau of the Census.
4
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS. INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In September, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders all rose. According to advance
data for October, manufacturers' durable shipments and new orders fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS Of DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)
480 — INVENTORIES
440
400
360
320 _ SHIPMENTS .
280
TOTAL
240
TOTAL
320
200
280
DURABLE GOODS
-y
240
160
DURABLE GOODS
200
120
160
NONDURABLE GOODS
—1 \
NONDURABLE GOODS
120
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
li
80
RATIO'
2.00
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1.80
1.60
120
^sv
»s—-f~^
1.40
1.20
80
Mill
M^Eu,,
Illllllllll
1994
1993
1997
1993
1996
1995
•SEASONAUV-ADJUSIED
SOURCE: DEWK1MENTOF COMMERCE
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADV1SEBS
Manufacturers' shipments ]
Manufacturers' inventories2
Manufacturers' new orders '
Durable goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Nondurable
goods
Durable
goods
Total
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Nondurable
goods
26,094
31,108
32,988
33,331
30,471
31,524
31,694
35,697
40,561
43,913
46,931
46,293
43,081
43,162
45,094
46,264
44,505
43,751
44,211
47,211
47,412
47,987
'48,745
49,183
98,579
106,194
113,516
118,924
118,957
121,905
124,617
130,191
138,885
144,234
144,781
147,377
148,764
146,882
148,061
147,665
147,202
148,432
147,599
147,970
149,459
148,845
149,629
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders2
Manufacturers'
inventoryshipments
ratio3
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
..
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec .. ..
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar ....
May
June
July
Sept/>
Ocf
. . .
206,326 108,128
224,619 118,458
236,698 123,158
242,686 123,776
239,847 121,000
250,394 128,489
260,635 135,886
279,002 149,131
299,116 160,101
311,265 167,166
315,971 171,415
316,461 169,368
319,296 171,426
316,306 169,504
319,725
171,403
322,967 174,862
322,923 176,224
326,909 178,482
323,567
175,900
328,315 180,687
332,895 183,827
181,131
330,178
335,081 '185,536
184,232
98,198
106,161
113,540
118,910
118,847
121,905
124,749
129,870
139,015
144,099
144,556
147,093
147,870
146,802
148,322
148,105
146,699
148,427
147,667
147,628
149,068
149,047
149,545
338,109
369,374
391,212
405,073
390,950
382,547
384,138
405,028
429,089
434,434
432,674
434,038
435,200
434,434
435,743
437,873
438,560
441,508
443,460
444,823
446,602
448,447
448,582
'Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
117,310
126,906
133,699
141,864
140,931
144,381
144,734
151,337
163,174
163,105
161,880
162,422
163,002
163,105
163,091
163,703
163,927
164,516
165,376
165,657
165,802
166,569
166,879
220,799
242,468
257,513
263,209
250,019
238,166
239,404
253,691
265,915
271,329
270,794
271,616
272,198
271,329
272,652
274,170
274,633
276,992
278,084
279,166
280,800
281,878
281,703
209,389 110,809
228,270 122,076
239,572 126,055
244,507 125,583
119,849
238,805
248,212 126,308
257,698 133,081
279,733 149,542
300,353 161,469
314,197 169,963
319,894
175,113
322,392 175,015
322,400 173,636
316,898 170,016
323,864 175,803
326,537 178,872
173,944
321,146
177,112
325,544
324,042 176,443
181,584
329,554
331,138 181,679
186,195
335,040
336,057 '186,428
185,920
430,426
474,154
508,849
531,131
519,199
493,184
458,245
467,369
482,605
517,647
508,020
513,951
517,055
517,647
521,786
525,356
523,579
522,214
522,689
523,928
522,171
527,033
528,009
1.59
1.57
1.63
1.65
1.65
1.54
1.48
1.41
1.41
1.39
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.37
1.36
1.36
1.36
1.35
1.37
1.35
1.34
1.36
1.34
3
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
The producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.1 percent in October. Prices of finished consumer foods
rose 0.4 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.1 percent. Capital equipment prices fell
0.1 percent.
INUtX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCAl£)
INDEX, 1982-100 (RATIO SCALE)
CONSUMER GOODS
EXCLUDING FOODS
110
100
100
1989
1990
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DB>AOTMENTOf lABOd
[1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Finished goods
Intermediate materials
Crude materials
Foods
and
feeds1
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
105.4
108.0
113.6
119.2
121.7
123.2
124.7
125.5
127.9
131.3
132.5
132.7
133.4
133.0
132.6
132.3
131.6
131.3
131.1
131.0
131.4
132.0
132.1
109.5
112.6
118.7
124.4
124.1
123.3
125.7
126.8
129.0
133.6
136.2
136.2
135.9
134.6
134.1
135.2
134.7
135.3
134.1
133.7
134.1
134.2
134.7
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Get
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June r ...
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Consumer goods
Total
Total
111.8
100.7
103.1
108.9
117.4
120.9
123.1
124.4
125.1
127.5
130.6
131.3
131.5
132.5
132.4
132.0
131.4
130.6
130.0
130.2
130.1
130.5
131.3
131.3
115.3
118.7
120.8
121.7
121.6
124.0
127.6
128.6
129.0
130.3
130.2
129.7
128.8
127.6
127.0
127.2
127.1
127.7
128.6
128.7
104.0
106.5
1
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
NOTE.—Beginning-1996, indexes are based on updated va3ue weights.
22
Durable
111.5
113.8
117.6
120.4
123.9
125.7
128.0
130.9
132.7
134.2
134.3
134.5
134.5
134.4
134.5
134.6
134.4
133.6
133.5
132.9
133.3
133.9
134.1
Nondurable
94.9
97.3
103.8
111.5
115.0
117.3
117.6
116.2
118.8
123.3
124.7
125.1
127.0
126.8
126.1
124.7
123.2
122.6
123.0
123.1
123.7
124.8
124.8
Capital
equipment
111.7
114.3
118.8
122.9
126.7
129.1
131.4
134.1
136.7
138.3
138.5
138.5
138.5
138.6
138.5
138.5
138.4
138.1
138.2
138.0
138.0
138.4
138.3
Total
finished
Total
goods
103.6
106.2
112.1
118.2
120.5
121.7
123.0
123.3
125.6
129.5
131.0
131.3
132.1
131.6
131.1
130.8
129.9
129.6
129.4
129.2
129.7
130.4
130.6
101.5
107.1
112.0
114.5
114.4
114.7
116.2
118.5
124.9
125.8
126.0
125.8
126.4
126.6
126.4
125.9
125.5
125.3
125.3
125.1
125.2
125.6
125.5
99.2
109.5
113.8
Other
Total
101.7
93.7
96.0
103.1
108.9
101.2
106.9
111.9
113.3 114.5
111.1 114.6
110.7 114.9
112.7 116.4
114.8 118.7
114.8 125.5
128.1 125.6
130.5 125.8
126.3 125.8
125.6 126.5
125.0 126.7
124.9 126.6
127.1 125.9
127.7 125.4
128.4 125.2
126.5 125.3
125.1 125.1
124.2 125.3
125.9 125.6
122.4 125.7
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
100.4
102.4
101.8
102.7
113.8
112.0
115.0
122.1
126.7
116.2
107.3
107.9
110.2
106.7
106.7
107.4
108.0
112.3
96.2
106.1
111.2
113.1
105.5
105.1
108.4
106.5
105.8
121.5
120.7
117.7
114.5
113.1
111.5
113.7
117.2
117.0
110.4
111.0
110.9
110.6
110.6
Other
87.9
85.5
93.4
101.5
94.6
93.5
94.7
94.8
96.8
104.5
102.1
109.1
122.7
131.0
115.1
99.2
97.8
101.7
100.3
99.9
101.2
102.4
109.2
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In October, the consumer price index for ail urban consumers rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted and not seasonally
adjusted. The index was 2.1 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
SEASONAliY ACJUSTCD
170
170
160
160
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS
150
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
11 11
1997
100
1989
1991
1990
1992
1994
1993
1995
1996
I 100
SEENCTCONIUllEiaCW
SOURCE: D&MZTMea Of IABCX
COUNCl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All items1
Transportation
Housing
Shelter
Not
season- Seasonally
ally
adjust- adjusted
ed
(NSA)
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 . . .
1996: Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb .
Mar
.
May
July
Get .
1
.
100.0
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
158.3
158.6
158.6
159.1
159.6
160.0
160.2
160.1
160.3
160.5
160.8
161.2
161.6
158.3
158.8
159.2
159.4
159.8
159.9
160.0
160.1
160.3
160.6
160.9
161.3
161.6
Food
Total i
Total
15.9
113.5
118.2
125.1
132.4
136.3
137.9
140.9
144.3
148.4
153.3
155.8
156.4
156.4
156.0
156.5
156.5
156.2
156.8
157.1
157.6
158.3
158.4
158.7
41.2
114.2
118.5
123.0
128.5
133.6
137.5
141.2
144.8
148.5
152.8
153.9
154.4
154.7
155.2
155.6
155.6
155.9
156.1
156.5
156.8
156.9
157.3
157.7
Renters'
costs
(Dec.
1982=
100)
28.2
121.3
127.1
132.8
140.0
146.3
151.2
155.7
160.5
165.7
171.0
172.2
172.6
172.9
173.4
174.0
174.3
174.9
175.4
175.8
176.2
176.6
177.0
177.5
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuei oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc, excluded beginning 1983.
3
Relative importance, December 1996.
8.0
128.1
133.6
138.9
146.7
155.6
160.9
165.0
169.4
174.3
180.2
181.1
181.5
181.7
182.8
183.4
183.9
184.5
184.8
185.4
185.3
185.7
186.4
187.6
Home- Mainteownnance
ers'
and
costs
(Dec.
re1982= pairs
100) (NSA)
20.0
124.8
131.1
137.3
144.6
150.2
155.3
160.2
165.5
171.0
176.5
177.8
178.3
178.6
179.0
179.5
179.8
180.4
180.9
181.2
181.9
182.4
182.6
182.9
0.2
111.8
114.7
118.0
122.2
126.3
128.6
130.6
130.8
135.0
139.0
140.2
141.1
141.5
141.5
142.3
142.4
142.5
143.2
143.3
145.4
145.5
142.6
144.7
Fuel
and
other
utilities
7.1
103.0
104.4
107.8
111.6
115.3
117.8
121.3
122.8
123.7
127.5
129.0
129.6
130.3
131.2
131.6
130.5
130.2
129.4
130.2
130.5
129.9
130.7
131.1
Apparel
and
up- Total i
keep
5.3
110.6
115.4
118.6
124.1
128.7
131.9
133.7
133.4
132.0
131.7
131.3
131.7
131.8
132.3
132.6
132.2
133.4
133.6
133.3
133.5
132.2
132.6
132.7
17.1
105.4
108.7
114.1
120.5
123.8
126.5
130.4
134.3
139.1
143.0
144.3
144.8
145.7
145.4
145.3
145.4
144.8
143.6
143.2
143.3
144.2
144.8
144.9
New
cars
MediMotor cal
care
fuel
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
4.0
114.6
116.9
119.2
121.0
125.3
128.4
131.5
136.0
139.0
141.4
142.4
142.1
142.2
141.9
141.9
142.0
142.0
141.8
141.7
141.8
141.7
141.7
141.4
3.2
80.2
80.9
88.5
101.2
99.4
99.0
98.0
98.5
100.0
106.3
106.6
108.4
111.1
111.8
111.8
109.5
106.8
102.5
101.4
101.2
106.2
108.0
107.5
7.0
88.6
89.3
94.3
102.1
102.5
103.0
104.2
104.6
105.2
110.1
110.7
112.0
113.7
114.6
114.9
112.9
111.2
108.5
108.5
108.4
110.2
111.6
111.7
77.0
118.2
123.4
129.0
135.5
142.1
147.3
152.2
156.5
161.2
165.6
167.0
167.4
167.7
167.9
168.3
168.7
169.2
169.5
169.7
170.0
170.1
170.4
170.8
7.3
130.1
138.6
149.3
162.8
177.0
190.1
201.4
211.0
220.5
228.2
230.4
231.0
231.5
231.9
232.3
233.2
233.8
234.5
234.9
235.0
235.5
235.9
236.1
NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs (beginning
1983).
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Period
Change front preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual fate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Poods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Poods
Change
from year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
22
4.0
4.9
5.7
-.1
1.6
.2
1.7
2.3
2.8
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
-0.2
5.7
5.2
2.6
-1.5
1.6
2.4
1.1
1.9
3.4
4.1
3.1
5.3
8.7
-.7
1.6
-1.4
2.0
2.3
3.7
1.3
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
.4
2.1
2.5
5.2
4.9
2.1
1.2
1.2
.6
1.9
2.7
Change, month to month
1996- Oct
0.8
0
-2
0.4
.2
.5
-.3
-.3
_ _2
-.5
-.2
-.2
-.1
.3
.5
.1
Dee
1997' Jan
Feb
Mar
Sept
Get
-1 0
-.4
.8
-.4
A
-.9
r
-3
.3
.1
.4
0.4
.3
1.0
-.1
-4
-.7
-.9
— .5
.2
-.1
.5
.7
.1
-0.1
0
0
.1
-.1
0
-.1
— 2
.1
-.1
0
.3
-.1
3.8
4.1
7.0
5.1
2.2
-4.5
-7.8
-8.1
-4.9
-1.6
2.2
4.5
5.1
7.7
4.8
2.4
-4.6
-6.0
-2.0
.3
3.6
-3.2
-2.9
-3.5
'.3
3,0
4.0
3.4
4.3
1.5
_ q
-3^3
-4.1
-3.9
-3.6
-1.8
.3
2.8
3.4
0.6
0
-.6
.3
0
0
-.6
-1.2
-.9
-1.2
-.3
'.6
.9
2.9
2.9
3.4
2.8
1.5
.5
-1.4
-2.1
-3.4
-3.0
-1.8
-.5
.8
7.3
7.0
3.5
1.4
-.7
.1
-2.2
-1.3
-2.6
-1.3
0
-1.5
0
2.1
2.4
4.8
4.4
3.2
1.1
-1.5
-3.1
0.6
.6
.3
.4
0
-.3
-.1
-.6
-.4
-.9
-4'.7
-3.1
-.3
1.7
ft
-.1
-.1
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.2
1.5
.8
.4
j
-.2
_ 2
0
-.2
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Housing
Transportation
Shelter
Period
All
items1
Pood
Total1
1
Total
Renters'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
and
other
utilities
Apparel
and
upkeep
Total1
New
ears
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
Addendum: All items,
percent change
(annual rate)
From
previous
quarter3
Prom
Prom
From
3
6
year
months months earlier
NSA
earlier earlier
Change, December to December, NSA
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
..
4.4
4.4
4.6
6.1
3.1
2.9
27
2.7
25
3.3
3.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
1.9
1.5
29
2.9
2.1
4.3
3.7
4.0
3.9
4.5
3.4
2.6
27
2.2
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.5
4.9
5.2
3.9
2.9
30
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.9
3.9
4.5
6.7
4.2
2.8
26
2.3
3.0
3.4
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.7
3.7
2.9
32
3.3
3.7
2.8
6.1
3.0
4.0
10.4
-1.5
3.0
2.4
3.8
1.5
4.4
4.8
1.6
4.7
2.9
1.0
3.2
5.1
4.0
3.4
2.9
1.4
2.3
9
25
.2 -1.6
.1
1.4
4.6
-.2
1.8
2.1
2.3
1.4
3.3
2.3
2.8
3.2
1.6
1.6
18.7
-2.1
6.8
36.5
-16.0
1.8
C A
5.9
-4.0
12.7
5.8
6.9
8.5
9.6
7.9
6.6
54
4.9
3.9
3.0
.5
5.1
18.1
-7.4
2.0
-1.4
2.2
-1.3
8.6
0.2
.3
.2
.2
2
.4
.3
.3
2
1.1
1.2
1.5
.8
.3
-1.7
-1.5
-2.4
0
_2
.2
.1
17
1.3
.1
8.2
3.6
4.1
4.8
5.4
4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
4.2
4.7
4.4
52
4.4
3.3
32
2.6
3.0
2.6
Change, month to month
1996: Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
1
Includes
2
0.3
.3
.3
.1
.3
.1
1
.1
.1
.2
_2
_2
'.2
0.5
.4
0
-.3
.3
0
__ .>
.4
.2
.3
.4
.1
2
0.3
.3
.2
.3
.3
0
2
.1
.3
.2
.1
.3
.3
0.3
.2
.2
.3
.3
.2
3
.3
.2
.2
2
.2
.3
0.3
.2
_!
0.2
.3
_2
.6
.3
.3
.3
.2
.3
-.1
.2
.4
.6
.2
.3
P2
.3
.3
.2
.4
.3
.1
.2
0.5
.5
.5
.7
.3
Q
.O
— ,2
^6
.2
•- ,5
.6
.3
items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., excluded beginning 1983.
24
0.2
.3
.1
.4
2
0.3
.3
.6
-.2
-'.a
.9
.1
.1
-.4
Q
-'.a
.1
— 9
'.2
10
.3
.1
.6
.4
.1
3
-0.2
_ _9
.1
-.2
0
.1
0
-.1
-.1
.1
-.1
0
n
1.6
1.7
2.5
.6
0
-2.1
-2.5
-4.0
-1.1
— 2
4.9
1.7
— .5
!o
-1
0.2
.2
.2
.1
.2
.2
.3
.2
.1
.2
1
.2
2
3.3
2.3
i"o
2.0
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3.1
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.5
1.8
1.5
.8
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.2
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.8
2.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
In November, prices received and prices paid by farmers were both unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
60
60
1989
1991
1990
1992
1995
1994
1993
J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1990-92 = 100; not seasonally adjusted]
Prices paid by farmers
Prices received by farmers
Period
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
Crops
All commodities,
services, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates'
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Production
items
Ratio2
1996
89
99
104
104
100
98
101
100
102
112
86
104
109
103
101
101
102
105
112
126
91
93
100
105
99
97
100
95
92
99
87
91
96
99
100
101
104
106
110
115
87
92
97
99
100
101
102
105
109
114
87
90
95
99
100
101
103
106
109
115
102
108
108
105
99
97
97
94
93
98
1996- Nov
Dec
110
110
117
116
102
103
115
115
114
114
114
115
96
96
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
108
105
108
107
108
108
107
108
107
107
107
116
113
118
116
117
119
115
117
114
115
115
98
98
99
100
100
98
100
99
99
97
98
116
116
117
117
117
117
116
116
116
116
116
115
116
117
117
117
116
116
115
116
115
115
115
115
116
117
117
117
116
116
116
115
114
93
91
91
91
92
92
92
93
92
92
92
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
May
June
July
Sept
Ocf
1
Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,
taxes, and wage rates.
2
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on* a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK. LIQUID ASSETS. AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in M2 and M3 slowed in October.
BIILIO v|S OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
5,600
5,200
4,800
4,400
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
5,600
5,200
_ _.. r"'^"""""
4,800
.*>•""* f~'~
4,400
4,000 _. _i" ' ••'—
\
M3
3,600
4,000
------
_
3,600
\
3,200
--"
3,200
M2
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
__
—--
^f \~^\
—._
Ml
800
—
^^ ^
•
-="
800
600
1989
1990
1993
1992
1991
!
1
1994
1995
" WEKAGES OF DAM.Y BGURES; SEASONM1Y AQJUSTCD
SOURCE: BOARD Of GCWBWOB OF THE FHSWL MSKVE SYS11M
600
1997
1996
COUNQLOF ECONOMIC ADWSBIS
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1987:
198819891990:
1991199219931994:
19951996:
1996:
Dec ..
Dec
Dee ...
Dec
Dec ...
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sept
Oct
Dee
1997- Jan
Peb . .
Mar
Apr
May
July'
Sept'
Oct
Ml
M2
M3
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable deposits (OCDs)
Ml phis retail
MMMF balances,
savings deposits
(including
MMDAs), and
small time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
RPs, Eurodollars, and
institutiononly MMMF
balances
749.7
787.0
794.2
825.8
897.3
1,025.0
1,129.8
1,150.7
1,129.0
1,081.1
1,093.3
1,080.3
1,080.1
1,081.1
1,079.7
1,080.7
1,075.4
1,065.3
1,062.8
1,063.1
1,062.1
1,069.6
1,060.8
1,057.4
2,832.7
2,996.3
3,160.9
3,279.5
3,379.6
3,434.0
3,486.6
3,502.1
3,655.0
3,819.3
3,769.7
3,779.6
3,798.3
3,819.3
3,834.7
3,850.0
3,865.5
3,883.3
3,880.9
3,894.4
3,905.3
3,940.5
3,960.0
3,975.9
1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and montlJy changes are from 6 months
earlier at a simple annual rate.
26
3,672.5
3,912.9
4,065.9
4,125.9
4,180.4
4,190.4
4,254.4
4,327.3
4,592.5
4,918.0
4,816.5
4,849.6
4,876.1
4,918.0
4,940.1
4,977.3
5,008.7
5,047.8
5,054.2
5,073.7
5,117.4
5,168.9
5,210.2
5,247.4
L
Debt
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average of
adjacent
month-end
levels) J
4,339.9
4,663.5
4,892.8
4,976.6
5,006.2
5,078.0
5,167.8
5,308.4
5,697.6
6,069.3
'5,981.6
6,005.2
6,038.5
6,069.3
6,083.9
'6,131.5
'6,175.8
'6,231.1
'6,249.1
6,271.5
6,307.5
6,378.2
r 6,428. 7
8,650.8
9,427.6
10,151.1
10,824.4
11,298.5
11,837.3
12,457.3
13,072.1
13,768.1
14,485.7
14,311.7
14,372.9
14,435.7
14,485.7
14,526.2
'14,583.7
'14,644.8
'14,713.4
'14,756.0
'14,780.6
14,832.1
14,887.3
*• 14,943.8
Percent change from year
or 6
months earlier2
Ml
3.5
5.0
.9
4.0
8.7
14.2
10.2
1.8
-1.9
-4.2
-5.8
—7 7
-6.6
-6.2
-5.3
-3.5
-3.3
-2.8
-3.2
-3.3
— 33
-2.1
-2.7
-1.5
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
M2
3.6
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.1
1.6
1.5
.4
4.4
4.5
3.0
3.0
3.9
4.2
4.6
4.8
5.1
5.5
4.3
3.9
3.7
4.7
4.9
4.8
M3
5.3
6.5
3.9
1.5
1.3
.2
1.5
1.7
6.1
7.1
5.4
6.1
6.2
7.0
7.2
7.9
8.0
8.2
7.3
6.3
7.2
7.7
8.0
7.9
Debt
9.6
9.0
7.7
6.6
4.4
4.8
5.2
4.9
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.4
4.5
4.7
'4.7
'4.4
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Currency
Period
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
196.8 286.8 259.5
212.3 286.8 280.9
222.7 279.3 285.3
246.8 277.4 293.9
267.3 289.6 332.5
292.9 339.5 384.4
322.2 385.2
414.5
354.4 384.1
403.8
372.6 391.1
356.5
395.2 402.6 274.8
387.6 405.1
292.2
390.2 398.4 283.2
392.5 402.2 276.8
395.2 402.6 274.8
397.0 401.6
272.5
400.5 404.3 267.3
402.4 403.1
261.5
403.7 395.6
257.7
406.1 395.7
252.8
407.7 397.2 250.1
410.2 -•396.4 '247.2
412.1 402.0 247.2
415.4 390.6 246.7
418.0 386.4 244.8
1987:
198819891990:
19911992:
199319941995:
19961996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
Demand
deposits
. .
May
July
Augr
Sept'
Oct
Money market
mutual fund
balances
Retail'
224.6
245.9
321.7
357.1
371.9
353.5
354.9
384.3
455.2
521.5
507.5
512.0
515.2
521.5
525.7
530.6
538.3
548.1
543.9
548.0
552.5
567.0
578.3
581.8
Savings
deposits,
money
market
Instideposit
tution2 accounts
only (MMDAs)
92.0
92.3
110.3
138.0
185.5
207.5
209.5
198.5
246.9
299.3
285.2
288.1
292.0
299.3
296.3
305.4
311.8
311.6
311.6
318.9
324.1
329.2
338.9
345.3
937.4
926.3
893.7
923.8
1,045.0
1,187.3
1,219.2
1,149.6
1,137.1
1,271.0
1,231.5
1,246.3
1,259.0
1,271.0
1,282.5
1,290.5
1,304.3
1,321.1
1,320.9
1,325.4
1,329.9
1,341.4
1,356.7
1,370.2
1
Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less titan $50,000.
in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more.
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of let
than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
2
Balances
3
Small
denomination
time
deposits3
Overnight
and
Large
term
denom- repurination chase
time de- agreeposits3 ments
(HPs)
(net)
921.0
1,037.1
1,151.4
1,172.8
1,065.4
868.3
782.6
817.5
933.7
945.7
937.3
941.0
943.9
945.7
946.8
948.2
947.4
948.9
953.3
957.9
'960.9
962.5
964.2
966.6
467.0
518.3
541.5
480.9
416.5
353.4
333.4
363.1
419.8
491.5
468.3
480.9
483.4
491.5
493.3
500.1
509.1
522.1
523.6
'533.0
'551.1
557.2
570.9
577.1
Overnight
and
term
Eurodollars
(net)
Savings
bonds
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Bankers'
acceptances
172.6 108.2 100.6 249.5
44.5
189.0
117.0
109.4 266.8
40.2
158.0
95.2 117.5
324.0
40.7
138.8
88.7 126.0 334.1
36.1
119.5
79.3 137.9 328.8
23.8
128.6
67.0 156.6 344.7
20.8
158.6
66.4 171.5 340.5
14.8
182.9
80.8 180.2 383.0
14.0
182.1
88.7 184.8
469.9
11.2
194.1
113.9
187.0 456.5
12.2
194.4
98.9 187.1 483.9
12.0
196.0
105.1 187.1
476.8
12.1
195.3
107.1
187.0 480.0
12.2
194.1 113.9
187.0
456.5
12.2
198.3
117.5
186.7 436.1
11.9
'202.1 119.7
186.4 437.6
12.7
200.6 121.7
186.3
441.5
13.5
204.1 126.6 186.2 446.6
12.8
'204.5 133.5
186.2 '451.7
13.1
'198.7 128.8
186.3 443.0
12.6
'207.1 '129.8 186.4 '423.9
12.9
208.6 133.4
186.5 445.6
13.3
205.7 134.6 r 186.5 ' 455.2 C12.8
217.0
132.0
Commercial
paper
272.7
334.3
344.6
354.4
335.2
365.5
386.6
403.9
439.3
495.5
482.0
479.6
483.2
495.5
509.1
517.5
525.9
537.8
543.9
555.9
566.8
563.9
f 563.9
NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not
shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures'; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
19871988:
19891990:
1991199219931994199519961996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Get
Dec
1997: Jan
Peb
Mar
May
July
Sept'
Oct
1
38,895
40,428
40,522
41,797
45,563
54,383
60,545
59,404
56,386
50,063
50,076
49,811
50,063
49,517
49,008
48,312
47,430
47,048
47,108
46,885
47,414
46,666
46,452
Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures.
Nonborrowed
38,118
38,712
40,257
41,471
45,371
54,260
60,463
59,195
56,129
49,908
49,789
49,597
49,908
49,472
48,966
48,155
47,170
46,805
46,741
46,476
46,816
46,229
46,182
Nonborrowed
plus
extended
credit
38,601
39,957
40,277
41,494
45,371
54,260
60,463
59,195
56,129
49,908
49,789
49,597
49,908
49,472
48,966
48,155
47,170
46,805
46,741
46,476
46,816
46,229
46,182
Required
37,849
39,381
39,600
40,132
44,584
53,228
59,482
58,236
55,109
48,639
49,082
48,776
48,639
48,293
47,977
47,151
46,420
45,808
45,828
45,683
46,161
45,371
45,055
Monetary
base
239,799
256,905
267,625
293,190
317,403'
351,347
386,880
418,484
434,523
452,669
447,077
449,365
452,669
454,137
456,284
457,623
458,235
459,602
461,401
464,212
'466,456
469,358
472,028
Total
777
1,716
265
326
192
124
82
209
257
155
287
214
155
45
42
156
261
243
367
409
598
438
270
Seasonal
93
130
84
76
38
18
31
100
40
68
212
109
68
19
21
37
88
173
243
330
385
368
227
Extended
credit
483
1,244
20
23
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Total commercial bank icons and leases rose 0.7 percent in October; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9
percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
3,200
4,400
4,000
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
4,000 (- ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
3,600 •—
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
-V
800
800
400
400
OTHER SECURITIES
200
200
I i I II I II M I I M III I II I I I I M I II I I I I M I I I t I I
1(50 U
1989
1990
1992
1991
i iiMIi11ii
I M II I I I I I
1994
1993
1995
*SEASONAUY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FfDEMI DESERVE SYSTEM
160
1997
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted >
Loans and leases in bank credit
Securities in bank credit
Period
Total
bank
credit
Total
securities
U.S.
loans CommerOther Total
Governcial and
and 2
ment
securities leases
industrial
securities
Real estate
Total
Revolving
home
equity
Other
Consumer Security
Other
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec r
Dec
2,435.5
2,609.2
2,754.6
2,859.0
2,958.4
3,118.3
3,332.5
3,616.2
3,770.0
562.2
585.1
634.9
745.8
843.0
917.6
951.9
996.0
989.3
367.4
401.0
457.0
566.1
666.2
732.7
730.6
707.9
705.5
194.9
184.2
177.9
179.7
176.8
184.9
221.2
288.1
283.7
1,873.3
2,024.1
2,119.7
2,113.2
2,115.4
2,200.7
2,380.6
2,620.2
2,780.7
607.6
638.8
641.1
619.6
596.2
586.6
646.0
718.2
782.2
675.2
770.3
856.3
880.6
901.5
941.5
1,003.4
1,079.9
1,129.0
40.0
50.2
62.3
69.6
73.5
73.0
75.3
79.1
84.7
635.2
720.1
794.0
811.0
828.0
868.4
928.1
1,000.8
1,044.3
357.2
377.7
383.2
366.4
358.9
391.2
452.4
496.5
521.0
40.7
41.5
45.4
55.4
65.6
90.3
79.1
86.6
78.5
192.6
195.7
193.9
191.3
193.3
191.3
199.7
239.0
270.0
1996: Ocf
Nov
Decr
3,716.5
3,742.4
3,770.0
968.9
979.9
989.3
701.7
705.7
705.5
267.2
274.2
283.7
2,747.6
2,762.5
2,780.7
769.9
774.0
782.2
1,116.2
1,122.5
1,129.0
82.9
83.7
84.7
1,033.3
1,038.9
1,044.3
519.2
520.5
521.0
75.8
76.9
78.5
266.5
268.7
270.0
1997- Jan'
Pebr
Marr ...
Aprr
3,803.3
3,839.3
3,858.5
3,897.9
3,901.9
3,921.6
3,955.5
3,965.7
3,987.8
4,023.9
1,004.6
1,020.2
1,014.0
1,033.4
1,014.3
1,010.4
1,031.0
1,024.3
1,030.7
1,046.9
706.5
703.6
708.2
723.2
722.9
725.8
725.9
713.9
721.9
731.0
298.1
316.5
305.8
310.2
291.4
284.6
305.1
310.5
308.8
315.8
2,798.7
2,819.1
2,844.5
2,864.5
2,887.6
2,911.2
2,924.5
2,941.4
2,957.1
2,977.0
784.5
793.2
797.7
803.0
807.3
812.1
816.0
824.0
835.9
843.5
1,135.7
1,141.1
1,154.7
1,168.2
1,179.2
1,189.5
1,197.8
1,203.7
1,210.5
1,214.5
85.1
85.8
87.2
89.1
90.4
91.9
93.0
93.9
95.1
96.1
1,050.6
1,055.3
1,067.5
1,079.1
1,088.9
1,097.6
1,104.7
1,109.8
1,115.5
1,118.4
521.8
520.5
517.9
515.0
516.4
517.7
517.1
517.5
513.4
507.6
81.3
82.8
87.3
89.4
88.3
92.6
93.6
93.5
94.8
104.7
275.4
281.5
286.9
288.9
296.3
299.2
300.0
302.7
302.4
306.8
198819891990:
199119921993:
199419951996-
May1"
Julyr . .
Augr
Sepf
Oct
1
Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commereiai banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment
companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifieations of assets and liabilities.
28
a
Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to
commercial banks in the United States.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System-
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Credit market funds
Period
Total
Internal '
Total
Total
649.0
852.7
745.4
594.0
490.8
601.5
702.4
790.8
980.1
1,022.1
876.3
939.2
1,034.7
1,070.2
1,049.3
1,037.0
977.2
1,024.6
1,076.7
1,119.2
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 ....
1996
1995- I
II
Ill
IV .
1996:
I
II
III
IV
1997:
I
HP
375.1
409.0
398.0
410.5
423.7
440.2
484.5
549.2
576.8
647.1
538.1
556.2
592.8
620.0
619.3
637.1
649.6
682.2
675.6
685.6
273.9
443.7
347.4
183.5
67.1
161.3
217.9
241.6
403.3
375.0
338.2
383.0
441.9
450.2
430.0
399.9
327.6
342.4
401.1
433.6
Securities
and mortgages
38.8
8.3
-25.4
-12.5
81.9
76.5
95.4
-1.0
43.4
16.0
49.6
63.9
-.5
60.6
-2.6
97.4
-68.3
37.7
-3.6
24.8
80.8
101.4
67.0
55.4
-35.1
66.6
70.4
90.4
155.4
83.9
206.8
205.1
67.2
142.4
59.3
172.5
65.3
38.4
93.1
107.3
1
Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed
capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment
in the U.S.
Loans and
short-term
paper
42.0
93.1
92.4
67.9
-117.0
-9.9
-25.0
91.4
112.0
67.9
157.2
141.2
67.7
81.8
61.9
75.1
133.6
.7
96.7
82.5
Total
Other 2
193.2
342.2
280.4
128.1
102.2
94.6
147.5
151.2
247.9
291.1
131.4
177.9
374.7
307.8
370.7
227.3
262.2
304.0
308.0
326.4
Increase in
financial
assets
Capital
expenditures :1
354.3
360.4
389.9
382.7
368.8
382.3
445.6
511.6
568.5
593.5
571.5
561.3
584.6
556.6
559.7
575.5
610.7
628.1
648.5
706.7
588.9
743.3
623.4
498.0
498.6
549.8
802.9
789.9
976.7
1,003.7
838.6
961.9
1,002.6
1,103.5
1,033.2
937.8
1,039.2
1,004,5
1,049.8
1,074.0
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
60.2
109.3
122.0
96.1
-7.8
51.7
- 100.6
.9
3.4
18.4
37.7
-22.7
32.1
-33.4
16.2
99.2
-62.0
20.1
27.0
45.2
234.6
382.9
233.5
115.3
129.8
167.5
357.3
278.3
408.2
410.2
267.1
400.6
418.0
546.9
473.5
362.3
428.5
376.4
401.3
367.3
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from
U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER CREDIT
|Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in consumer credit outstanding '
Consumer credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total
19871988:
19891990:
19911992:
199319941995:
19961996:
Dec
Dec3
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan'
Febr
Mar r ..
Apr7"
Mayr
June r . .
July
Sepf
1
671.7
729.9
780.4
793.9
779.3
782.8
842.9
964.6
1,100.7
1,184.0
1,173.9
1,179.6
1,183.8
1,184.0
1,194.8
1,202.5
1,204.8
1,212.8
1,213.7
1,213.3
1,219.3
1,223.5
1,225.5
Automobile
Revolving
266.1
285.5
290.2
283.1
263.3
262.6
287.1
326.4
362.1
390.3
386.9
388.5
388.5
390.3
390.5
390.6
390.0
394.0
394.4
398.0
400.4
399.8
400.2
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month.
2
Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., phis noninstallment credit.
153.3
174.5
210.9
238.2
263.2
277.5
309.1
364.6
441.9
498.0
484.8
490.3
495.7
498.0
505.3
510.7
509.6
512.8
514.3
514.6
521.0
524.1
526.1
Others
252.4
269.9
279.3
272.7
252.9
242.7
246.7
273.6
296.8
295.7
302.2
300.8
299.6
295.7
298.9
301.2
305.1
306.0
305.0
300.8
297.8
299.7
299.3
Total
32.8
58.2
(4)
13.5
-14.6
3.5
60.1
121.7
136.1
83.3
2.3
5.7
4.2
.2
10.8
7.7
2.3
8.0
.9
-.4
6.0
4.2
2.0
Automobile
18.9
19.4
(4)
-7.1
-19.8
-.7
24.5
39.3
35.7
28.2
.7
1.6
.0
1.8
.2
.1
-.6
4.0
.4
3.6
2.4
-.6
.4
Revolving
17.3
21.2
(4)
27.3
25.0
14.3
31.6
55.5
77.3
56.1
2.3
5.5
5.4
2.3
7.3
5.4
-1.1
3.2
1.5
.3
6.4
3.1
2.0
Other2
-3.3
17.5
(4)
-6.6
-19.8
-10.2
4.0
26.9
23.2
-1.1
-.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.9
3.2
2.3
3.9
.9
-1.0
-4.2
-3.0
1.9
-.4
3
Data newiy available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December
1988 and subsequent months.
4
liecause of breaks in series, net change not available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Long interest rates fell in November; short rotes rose.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
14
U
— ~N
V~
x'^'N x
— -x
CORPORATE Aoa BONDS
(MOODY'SI
"""x
p--x y
_/
/
'•— • '*""""""»
\ ^
•" s •N
X «- " /
X
J
f\ •^
q
/
TREASURY .
BILLS /
/""N^X-.
*"**"**.
yr j
/H
~r\
^
DISCOUNT
R/kTE
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK
1990
1989
1991
1995
19P4
1993
1992
lOURCE: SEE TABU BELC w
1994
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Constant maturities2
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Week ended:
1997: Nov 1 ..
8 ..
15 ..
22 ..
29 ..
1
3-month
bills (new
issues) *
3-year
10-year
30-year
Highgrade
municipal
bonds
(Standard
&
Poor's) »
30
Prime
commercial
paper,
6
months J
Discount
rate (N.Y.
F.R.
Bank)4
Prime rate
charged by
banks*
Federal
funds
rate5
5.82
6.69
8.12
7.51
5.42
3.45
3.02
4.29
5.51
5.02
5.03
4.87
5.05
5.00
5.14
5.17
5.13
4.92
5.07
5.13
4.97
4.95
5.15
7.68
8.26
8.55
8.26
6.82
5.30
4.44
6.27
6.25
5.99
5.82
5.91
6.16
6.03
6.38
6.61
6.42
6.24
6.00
6.06
5.98
5.84
5.76
8.39
8.85
8.49
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.09
6.57
6.44
6.20
6.30
6.58
6.42
6.69
6.89
6.71
6.49
6.22
6.30
6.21
6.03
5.88
8.59
8.96
8.45
8.61
8.14
7.67
6.59
7.37
6.88
6.71
6.48
6.55
6.83
6.69
6.93
7.09
6.94
6.77
6.51
6.58
6.50
6.33
6.11
7.73
7.76
7.24
7.25
6.89
6.41
5.63
6.19
5.95
5.75
5.59
5.62
5.72
5.63
5.78
5.88
5.71
5.60
5.41
5.47
5.38
5.37
5.38
9.38
9.71
9.26
9.32
8.77
8.14
7.22
7.97
7.59
7.37
7.10
7.20
7.42
7.31
7.55
7.73
7.58
7.41
7.14
7.22
7.15
7.00
6.87
6.85
7.68
8.80
7.95
5.85
3.80
3.30
4.93
5.93
5.42
5.40
5.44
5.48
5.42
5.60
5.79
5.78
5.69
5.60
5.59
*
*
*
5.66
6.20
6.93
6.98
5.45
3.25
3.00
3.60
5.21
5.02
5.00-5.00
5.00^5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.21
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.15
8.83
8.27
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
6.66
7.57
9.21
8.10
5.69
3.52
3.02
4.21
5.83
5.30
5.31
5.29
5.25
5.19
5.39
5.51
5.50
5.56
5.52
5.54
5.54
5.50
5.52
4.97
5.12
5.16
5.17
5.15
5.73
5.77
5.76
5.73
5.77
5.90
5.92
5.88
5.84
5.86
6.22
6.20
6.12
6.05
6.06
5.35
5.40
5.40
5.36
5.34
6.93
6.93
6.89
6.83
6.83
*
*
*
*
*
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
5.50
5.60
5.50
5.51
5.49
Bank-discount basis.
VieIds on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury
Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
5
Daily effective rate; average of the rates on a given day weighted by the volume of transactions at these rates.
2
Corporate
Aaa
bonds
(Moody's)
Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHFB)s
9.31
9.19
10.13
10.05
9.32
8.24
7.20
7.49
7.87
7.80
7.80
7.79
7.81
7.78
7.88
8.03
8.01
7.95
7.78
7.59
7.61
7.54
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and
charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
*Series no longer published by Federal Reserve (FR). See FR release H. 15 Selected Interest
Rales, May 12, 1997.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices fell in November.
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCALE)
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 (RATIO SCAlf)
^~*
/
460
/
440
1
420
fv
400
r*
380
/
360
r—/~\S
340
f j/
320
/^
300
r
/
280
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)
260
260
'
S~~—^
240
240
/-s-x^—/
220
220
x— '
200
'
r-Ai,yr,
J ,
lllLl (
200
y^
180
160 jm 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1989
1
1990
1991
180
I 1 1 ii I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 I Ii 1 1 I I I
1992
1993
1994
i I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 I I 1 1 i1 1 I I
1997
1996
1995
160
PERCENT
20
PERCENT
20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMM<DN STOCKS
—- '
i——~^~---.
K
I
0
i
I
1989
i
i
I
._
T
iii iii iii
1991
1990
1992
10
I
1993
i I
1994
i
•i
—
1
i i
1995
SOURCES: NEWTOOKSTOCK EXCHANGE «C SWOAKDI POOR'S OOWKKAIION
i
i i
1996
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Week ended:
1997- Nov 1 .
g
15
22
29
1
Average of daily closing prices.
2
Includes all the stocks (more than
3
Industrial
Transportation
0
1997
Utility'
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial4
average
Standard &
Poor's composite index
(194143=10)5
Dividendprice ratio
161.70
149.91
180.02
183.46
206.33
229.01
249.58
254.12
291.15
358.17
388.75
391.61
403.58
418.57
416.72
401.00
433.36
457.07
480.94
481.53
489.74
499.25
492.08
195.31
180.95
216.23
225.78
258.14
284.62
299.99
315.25
367.34
453.98
490.60
494.38
509.64
524.30
523.08
506.69
549.65
578.57
610.42
609.54
617.94
625.22
615.57
140.39
134.12
175.28
158.62
173.99
201.09
242.49
247.29
269.41
327.33
348.32
352.28
359.40
364.15
372.87
366.67
395.50
410.94
433.75
439.71
451.63
466.04
453.49
148.59
143.53
174.87
181.20
185.32
198.91
228.90
209.06
220.30
249.77
258.85
257.09
263.91
271.36
264.78
253.18
268.18
280.48
288.51
287.63
291.87
302.83
307.52
146.48
127.26
151.88
133.26
150.82
179.26
216.42
209.73
238.45
303.89
345.30
350.01
361.45
388.75
387.21
364.25
392.32
419.12
441.59
446.93
459.86
476.70
465.29
2,275.99
2,060.82
2,508.91
2,678.94
2,929.33
3,284.29
3,522.06
3,793.77
4,493.76
5,742.89
6,318.36
6,435.87
6,707.03
6,917.48
6,901.12
6,657.50
7,242.36
7,599.60
7,990.65
7,948.43
7,866.59
7,875.82
7,677.36
286.83
265.79
322.84
334.59
376.18
415.74
451.41
460.33
541.64
670.83
735.67
743.25
766.22
798.39
792.16
763.93
833.09
876.29
925.29
927.74
937.02
951.16
938.92
3.08
3.64
3.45
3.61
3.24
2.99
2.78
2.82
2.56
2.19
2.01
2.01
1.95
1.89
1.91
1.98
1.85
1.77
1.66
1.65
1.65
1.61
1.65
477.15
492.70
482.84
496.67
497.13
596.29
617.14
605.07
620.83
620.15
449.51
460.32
447.58
451.81
454.44
293.32
300.04
301.32
313.42
317.26
455.65
469.19
453.84
469.09
469.98
7,397.98
7,664.13
7,514.58
7,756.29
7,798.70
907.26
937.61
919.18
950.22
951.13
1.68
1.64
1.70
1.63
1.63
2,000 in 1992) listed on tin' NYSE.
Dee. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility
index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index All indexes shown here reflect
the doubling.
4
Includes 30 stocks.
i
Common stock6yields
(percent)
New York Stock Exchange indexes 2(Dec. 31, 1965
except as noted)
Composite
i
COUXX OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Common stock prices '
Period
i
Earningsprice ratio
5.48
8.01
7.42
6.47
4.79
4.22
4.46
5.83
6.09
5.24
5.23
5.31
4.58
5
Includes 500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's.
6
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS. AND DEBT
in the first month of fiscal 1998, there was a deficit of $35.6 billion, compared with a deficit of $39.8 billion
a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^
1,700
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
1,700
l,dOO
1,600
OUTLAYS1,500
1,400
1,400
1,300
1,300
1,200
1,200
17
1,100
RECEIPTS' -
1,100
1,000
1,000
900
900
800
800
AT
— SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( - )
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
-400
J_
-400
1989
1991
1990
1992
1993
-^INOUDESON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DB»«TM£NT OF TW TREASURY AND OFFICE Of MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total
Fiscal year or period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 1
19971
1998 (estimates)
First month:2
Fiscal year 1997
Fiscal year 1998
1
Receipts
Outlays
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
734.2
769.3
854.4
909.3
991.2
1,032.0
1,055.0
1,091.3
1,154.4
1,258.6
1,351.8
1,452.8
1,579.0
1,631.6
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.9
946.5
990.5
1,004.2
1,064.5
1,143.7
1,253.2
1,324.4
1,381.7
1,409.4
1,461.7
1,515.7
1,560.2
1,601.6
1,689.9
-73.8
-79.0
-128.0
-207.8
- 185.4
-212.3
-221.2
-149.8
-155.2
-152.5
-221.2
-269.4
-290.4
-255.0
-203.1
- 163.9
- 107.4
-22.6
-58.3
99.7
114.9
139.5
150.5
-39.8
-35.6
Receipts
Outlays
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
548.0
569.0
641.0
667.8
727.5
750.3
761.2
788.9
842.5
923.6
1,000.8
1,085.3
1,187.0
1,219.8
476.6
543.1
594.4
661.3
686.1
769.7
807.0
810.3
'861.8
932.8
1,028.1
1,082.7
1,129.3
1,142.8
1,182.4
1,227.1
1,259.3
1,290.6
1,364.8
73.6
87.1
113.3
123.9
Data from September 1997 HontUy Treasury Statement.
Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1998 are from Mid-Session Review »/'** 1998 Budget, issued September 5, 1997. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget ofth, Vnited States Government,
Fiscal Year 1993, issued February 6, 1997.
2
32
Federal debt (end of
period)
Off-budget
On-budget
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Gross
Federal
Held by
the public
-221.7
-238.0
-169.3
-194.0
-205.2
-277.8
-321.6
-340.5
-300.4
-258.8
-226.3
-174.0
- 103.6
-145.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
263.7
281.7
293.9
302.4
311.9
335.0
351.1
367.5
392.0
411.8
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
225.1
241.7
252.3
266.6
279.4
288.7
300.9
311.0
325.2
-1.1
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
52.8
56.6
52.2
50.1
45.3
55.7
62.4
66.6
81.0
86.6
909.1
994.8
1,137.3
1,371.7
1,564.7
1,817.5
2,120.6
2,346.1
2,601.3
2,868.0
3,206.6
3,598.5
4,002.1
4,351.4
4,643.7
4,921.0
5,181.9
5,369.7
5,598.2
709.8
785.3
919.8
1,131.6
1,300.5
1,499.9
1,736.7
1,888.7
2,050.8
2,189.9
2,410.7
2,688.1
2,998.8
3,247.5
3,432.1
3,603.4
3,733.0
3,771.1
3,871.9
-39.6
-36.8
26.0
27.8
26.2
26.6
-.2
1.2
5,205.3
5,383.4
3,748.5
3,777.5
-72.7
-74.0
- 120.1
-208.0
-185.7
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Offiee of Management and Budget,
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first month of fiscal 1998, receipts were $15.2 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $11.0
billion higher.
BiiuaNS OF DOUARS
800
700
BliilONS OF ODLLARS
800
700
RECEIPTS-*7
600
600
500
500
400
CORPORATION
INu-iME TAXES
\
300
200
100
0
1
1,500
1,400
OUTLAYS^
400
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
300
200
100
|
|
|
|
|
OTHER.RECEIPTS
,
,
0
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,300
NONDEFENSE
1,200
1,200
_\
1,100
1,100
_--
1,000
1,000
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
NATIONAL DEFENSE
400
400
\
300
200
XI
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
^ INOJUOES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
1
N
300
200
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays
On-budget ami off-budget receipts
Fiscal year or period
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 . . .
1992
1993
1994
1995 ..
1996"
1997 i
1998 (estimates)
First month:2
Fiscal year 1997
Fiscal year 1998 ..
1
Individual
income
taxes
Corporation
income
taxes
Social
insurance
taxes
and
contributions
National defense
Other
Total
Total
InterDepart- national
ment of
Defense, affairs
military
Health
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.9
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
734.2
769.3
854.4
909.3
991.2
1,032.0
1,055.0
1,091.3
1,154.4
1,258.6
1,351.8
1,452.8
1,579.0
1,631.6
334.5
349.0
392.6
401.2
445.7
466.9
467.8
476.0
509.7
543.1
590.2
656.4
737.5
748.6
61.3
63.1
83.9
94.5
103.3
93.5
98.1
100.3
117.5
140.4
157.0
171.8
182.3
192.6
265.2
283.9
303.3
334.3
359.4
380.0
396.0
413.7
428.3
461.5
484.5
509.4
539.4
564.8
73.1
73.3
74.6
79.3
82.8
91.5
93.1
101.4
98.9
113.7
120.1
115.1
119.8
125.6
946.5
990.5
1,004.2
1,064.5
1,143.7
1,253.2
1,324.4
1,381.7
1,409.4
1,461.7
1,515.7
1,560.2
1,601.6
1,689.9
252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
303.6
299.3
273.3
298.4
291.1
281.6
272.1
265.7
270.1
266.4
245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
294.9
289.8
262.4
286.9
278.6
268.6
259.4
253.3
258.3
254.3
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
9.6
13.8
15.9
16.1
17.2
17.1
16.4
13.5
15.4
14.6
33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
48.4
57.7
71.2
89.5
99.4
107.1
115.4
119.1
123.4
139.2
99.7
114.9
53.6
60.7
.9
3.3
36.1
38.8
9.1
12.2
139.5
150.5
22.3
26.4
21.2
25.3
4.1
.7
10.4
11.9
50.6
Data from September 1997 Monthly Treasury Statement.
Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1998 are from Mid-Sessitm Review of the 1998 Budget, issued September 5, 1997. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government,
Fisctil Year 1998, issued February 6, 1997.
Medicare
Income Social
security security
Net
interest
Other
86.6
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
52.5
68.8
85.0
89.8
111.1
131.3
133.5
125.4
122.2
118.6
65.8 128.2
70.2 119.8
75.1 123.3
78.9 129.4
85.0 136.1
98.1 147.1
104.5 170.3
119.0 197.0
130.6 207.3
144.7 214.1
159.9 220.5
174.2 226.0
190.0 230.4
199.5 244.2
188.6
198.8
207.4
219.3
232.5
248.6
269.0
287.6
304.6
319.6
335.8
349.7
365.3
383.1
129.5
136.0
138.7
151.8
169.3
184.2
194.5
199.4
198.8
203.0
232.2
241.1
244.1
248.4
131.9
142.3
126.1
139.7
159.3
204.3
225.7
174.7
160.4
174.5
163.4
170.9
163.0
194.5
29.4
30.6
21.5
21.8
17.6
19.9
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
16.1
18.9
18.2
20.3
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
2
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1997, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $30.9 billion (annual rate) and
Federal current expenditures rose $6.7 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
1,800
SASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
—• <-f
-~^
1,600
-
CURRENT EXPENDITURES
- - ' v -'"
1,200
1,000
„--
-
--1
^s
"
-.1
^
r~-
_, —
|
'I
1,400
^'
-
s°
*
x
1,200
^
.
1,600
-
y
!,400
800
f^
--'
-'1
-
^—
1,000
/^
RECEIPTS
800
—-^
-
'^
600
600
-
-
-
-
400
400
200
-
„
-^
-200
CU WENTSURPIUSOI
"*--™ "^ ^
DEFICIT
-
-1
0
_—-
— -^
'
^
s
I
-400
1982
1983
1
1
1984
1985
i i i
i i i
1986
1987
i i i
1988
l i i
i i i
1989
1990
i i i
1991
^^
i i i
1992
i i i
1993
'
-200
^
i i i
iii
\ i i
_L 1 1
1994
1995
1996
1997
-400
CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DBWETMBIT OF COMMERQ
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates!
Federal Government receipts
Period
Total
Calendar year:
1990
1991 ....
1992
1993 ...
1994
1995
1996
1993: in
TV
1994: I
n
in
IV
1995:
I
n
m
IV
1996: I
n
m
IV
1997: I .
n
m-
1,129.8
1,149.0
1,198.5
1,275.1
1,374.8
1,463.2
1,587.6
1,277.2
1,327.2
1,324.5
1,381.1
1,383.8
1,409.5
1,429.0
1,459.0
1,472.8
1,491.9
1,526.3
1,583.8
1,598.6
1,641.6
1,675.3
1,709.3
1,740.2
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Contributions
for
social
insurance
485.7
476.9
490.8
522.6
562.3
605.8
686.7
527.1
543.4
542.0
574.3
561.6
571.1
581.4
608.2
607.5
626.0
644.9
688.8
695.7
717.5
746.9
767.9
781.1
118.0
109.8
118.6
138.3
156.7
182.1
194.5
65.1
79.7
81.9
86.9
98.7
93.5
95.8
85.9
93.8
98.2
98.1
99.3
99.0
94.3
93.8
93.7
92.2
461.1
482.6
507.1
527.3
557.1
581.8
610.5
529.3
535.5
547.4
555.3
559.5
566.2
574.3
578.3
584.7
589.9
597.6
607.8
614.8
622.0
635.3
641.5
648.1
135.0
154.5
136.9
153.4
163.4
173.2
179.0
178.7
186.9
183.8
192.1
197.2
196.7
192.0
204.9
207.7
218.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Federal Government current expenditures
91.7
90.0
91.5
110.2
88.2
92.2
92.4
Total
1,284.5
1,345.0
1,479.4
1,525.7
1,561.4
1,637.6
1,698.1
1,527.8
1,551.9
1,533.5
1,544.3
1,571.4
1,596.4
1,620.6
1,638.5
1,649.3
1,642.0
1,679.9
1,695.4
1,698.2
1,718.8
1,730.8
1,746.0
1,752.7
Consumption
expenditures
426.6
445.9
451.0
447.3
443.2
443.5
451.5
447.0
449.2
442.4
439.2
450.5
440.8
444.8
444.0
449.0
436.3
444.6
453.7
454.0
453.6
458.0
464.2
465.0
Transfer
payments
513.3
522.2
625.1
659.9
683.0
720.9
763.5
661.3
675.5
670.6
676.9
683.8
700.7
709.5
718.0
725.1
731.1
757.6
757.5
761.5
777.3
785.9
791.4
794.6
Grantsin-aid
to
Net
State
interest
and
paid
local
governments
132.4
153.4
172.2
185.8
199.2
211.9
218.3
187.3
196.9
194.5
196.2
199.6
206.6
212.2
216.5
210.6
208.5
213.7
223.2
218.7
217.5
219.6
222.5
224.2
179.9
192.7
195.8
192.7
200.0
224.8
227.1
192.9
192.5
189.9
196.6
202.8
210.8
218.8
223.9
227.5
229.0
226.6
223.5
226.6
231.8
228.9
229.8
230.9
Subsidies less
current
surplus
of
Government
enterprises
32.4
30.8
35.1
40.1
35.9
36.4
37.7
39.2
37.8
36.0
35.4
34.8
37.5
35.3
36.1
37.0
37.2
37.4
37.5
37.4
38.5
38.4
38.1
38.0
Less:
Wage
accruals less
disbursements
0.1
-.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
Current
surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
-154.7
-196.0
-280.9
-250.7
-186.7
-174.4
-110.5
-250.6
-209.0
- 163.2
-187.6
-186.8
-191.5
-179.5
-176.5
-111.6
-99.5
-55.5
-36.8
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NBA)
Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
United
States
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Mar
July
Sept
Ocf
1
Franee
86.4
94.5
99.9
104.2
106.1
100.0
95.8
97.0
100.2
102.9
103.7
106.1
105.2
105.2
110.5
107.0
106.4
106.0
110.4
107.3
108.6
105.6
'108.3
107 7
93.0
97.3
100.9
102.4
101.2
100.0
96.2
'100.0
'102.0
102.4
102.8
'102.4
'102.5
'102.8
102.1
103.4
103.0
106.2
104.7
'105.4
'107.5
'107.5
106.3
86.4
89.8
94.0
98.9
101.7
100.0
92.5
95.6
96.6
96.8
97.4
96.8
97.8
'97.8
'98.4
'98.7
99.1
99.2
98.5
100.2
104.2
'99.6
97.3
Canada
93.1
97.3
99.0
98.9
96.9
100.0
103.4
108.6
112.1
115.2
116.0
116.2
117.2
117.7
117.8
118.4
118.8
119.3
119.5
119.9
'120.8
121.5
'122.1
122.7
1987
1988
Japan
Germany
101.6
106.9
106.8
103.2
98.9
100.0
104.5
111.8
115.6
117.6
119.0
118.9
120.3
118.8
119.8
120.5
120.3
122.1
122.4
122.4
124.7
124.2
Data relate to all urban consumers.
United
Kingdom
Italy
92 A
97.9
100.9
101.1
100.2
100.0
97.6
102.6
108.2
106.4
106.0
105.2
105.7
103.7
104.0
107.1
107.7
108.4
108.7
108.8
108.7
'109.8
109.0
United
States '
Canada
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
157.8
158.3
158.6
158.6
159.1
159.6
160.0
160.2
160.1
160.3
160.5
160.8
161.2
161.6
96.6
101.2
103.4
103.1
99.6
100.0
102.2
107.6
110.0
111.2
111.8
111.4
112.0
112.5
112.2
111.9
111.6
112.6
111.5
113.5
114.6
'113.8
113.5
118.4
123.2
129.3
135.5
143.1
145.2
147.9
148.2
151.4
153.7
154.1
154.4
155.1
155.1
155.4
155.7
156.0
156.0
156.1
156.5
156.5
156.7
156.5
156.7
Japan
104.8
105.6
108.1
111.4
115.0
116.9
118.4
119.3
119.1
119.3
119.6
119.9
119.5
119.6
119.5
119.3
119.4
121.8
122.0
122.0
121.5
121.6
122.5
122.8
Germany
Franee
120.9 104.9
124.2 106.3
128.6 109.2
133.0 112.2
137.2 116.2
140.6 120.9
143.5 125.2
145.9 128.6
148.4 130.8
151.5 132.6
151.6 133.0
152.0 133.0
151.9 132.9
152.1 133.2
152.5 133.9
152.8 134.4
152.9 134.3
152.9 134.0
153.2 134.6
153.2 135.0
152.9 135.5
153.3 135.8
153.6 '135.4
153.5 135.2
Italy
United
Kingdom
119.7
125.6
135.4
148.2
156.9
162.7
165.3
169.3
175.2
179.4
180.7
180.7
180.8
181.4
181.4
182.1
182.6
183.6
184.3
185.1
185.1
186.2
187.2
187.4
134.4
141.1
150.4
159.5
169.8
178.8
186.3
193.6
204.0
212.0
213.1
213.3
213.9
214.1
214.5
214.7
214.9
215.1
215.7
215.7
215.7
215.7
216.1
216.7
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic
Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade anil Economic Analysis).
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)
C
,
.
,,
Services
(BOP basis)
Goods: Imports (customs value)
.
p
• n(by enti -use (.a egory)\
Census
basis
.j
Census basis (by end-use category)
Balance of trade
(expo s minus impo s)
BOP basis
Period
BOP
basis
Total,
Census
basis2
IndusFoods,
trial
feeds,
supand
plies
bevand
erages
materials
ConAutosumer
Capmotive
ital
(nongoods vebifood)
except eles,
exauto- parts
cept
and
moautoentive
mogines
tive
BOP
basis
Total,
Census
basis a
IndusFoods,
trial
feeds,
supand
plies
bevand
erages
materials
Capital
goods
except
automotive
Automotive
vehicles,
parts
and
engines
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
Exports
Imports
Goods,
Census
basis
Goods
Services
Goods
and
services
250.2
320.2
362.1
389.3
416.9
440.4
456.8
502.4
575.9
612.1
254.1
322.4
363.8
393.6
421.7
448.2
465.1
512.6
584.7
625.1
24.3
32.3
37.2
35.1
35.7
40.3
40.6
42.0
50.5
55.5
66.7
85.1
99.3
104.4
109.7
109.1
111.8
121.4
146.2
147.7
86.2
109.2
138.8
152.7
166.7
1 75.9
181.7
205.0
233.0
252.9
24.6
29.3
34.8
37.4
40.0
47.0
52.4
57.8
61.8
65.0
17.7
23.1
36.4
43.3
45.9
51.4
54.7
60.0
64.4
70.1
409.8
447.2
477.4
498.3
491.0
536.5
589.4
668.6
749.4
803.2
406.2
441.0
473.2
495.3
488.5
532.7
580.7
663.3
743.5
795.3
24.8
24.8
25.1
26.6
26.5
27.6
27.9
31.0
33.2
35.7
111.0
118.3
132.3
143.2
131.6
138.6
145.6
162.1
181.8
204.5
84.5
101.4
113.3
116.4
120.7
134.3
152.4
184.4
221.4
229.1
85.2
87.7
86.1
87.3
85.7
91.8
102.4
118.3
123.8
128.9
88.7
95.9
102.9
105.7
108.0
122.7
134.0
146.3
159.9
171.0
98.6
111.0
127.1
147.8
164.2
177.2
186.7
197.2
218.7
236.8
92.3
100.0
104.2
120.0
121.2
(20.3
126.4
135.5
147.0
156.6
-152.1
-118.5
-109.4
-101.7
-66.7
-84.5
-115.6
-150.6
-158.8
-170.2
-159.6
-127.0
-115.2
- 109.0
-74.1
-96.1
-132.6
-166.2
-173.6
-191.2
6.2
11.1
23.0
27.8
43.0
56.9
60.3
61.8
71.7
80.1
-153.4
— 115.9
-92.3
-81.2
-31.0
-39.2
-72.3
-104.4
-101.9
-111.0
1996: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
50.4
52.5
53.2
52.1
51.7
53.6
54.5
53.4
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.4
12.2
12.7
12.3
12.5
20.4
22.0
22.2
22.1
5.7
5.4
5.9
5.5
5.9
6.1
6.1
6.0
68.4
67.8
68.4
69.8
68.1
67.5
68.1
69.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
17.8
18.3
17.6
18.7
19.1
18.9
19.3
19.6
11.2
10.2
11.2
10.8
14.8
15.0
14.7
15.1
20.0
20.6
20.8
20.3
12.9
13.2
13.2
13.2
-16.4
-13.9
-13.6
-16.1
-18.0
-15.3
- 15.2
-17.7
7.1
7.4
7.5
7.1
-10.9
-7.9
-7.7
-10.6
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
51.7
53.7
57.2
57.2
56.9
57.4
56.7
57.3
56.5
52.2
54.4
58.1
57.9
57.9
58.2
57.8
58.4
57.6
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.8
4.2
4.3
12.1
12.7
13.7
13.5
13.4
13.9
13.2
13.4
13.2
21.6
22.7
24.7
25.0
24.8
24.5
24.9
24.9
24.8
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.2
5.9
6.3
6.3
6.2
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.4
69.8
70.4
72.0
72.7
73.2
72.6
73.6
73.9
74.7
69.6
70.0
70.6
71.7
72.3
71.7
73.4
73.6
74.4
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
17.9
17.6
18.0
17.6
17.9
17.6
17.5
17.9
18.2
19.5
19.4
20.4
20.7
21.0
21.3
21.6
22.1
21.9
11.8
12.1
11.7
11.4
11.6
11.6
12.3
11.8
11.8
15.1
15.3
14.9
16.2
16.1
15.7
16.1
16.0
16.6
20.2
20.6
21.0
20.6
20.9
21.1
21.0
21.3
21.5
13.6
13.7
13.9
13.9
14.1
14.2
14.2
14.2
14.4
-17.4
-15.7
-12.4
-13.8
-14.5
-13.5
-15.6
-15.3
-16.8
-18.1
-16.8
-14.9
-15.5
-16.4
- 15.2
-16.8
-16.6
-18.1
6.5
6.9
7.0
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.8
7.1
7.1
-11.6
-9.9
-7.8
-8.8
-9.6
-8.3
-10.0
-9.5
-11.1
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
July
Aug' ....
Sepf ...
' Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.
Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.
2
NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basts. BOP data
shown here an; consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the second quarter of 1997, the goods deficit fell to $46.9 billion, from $49.8 billion in the first quarter. The
current account deficit fell to $39.0 billion, from $40.0 billion in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'
-45
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS *
- -45
-
-50
-50
-55
-55
1987
* SEASONAU.Y ADJUSTS)
SOURCE DBWTM»JT Of COMMBKI
OOUNCt Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)]
Goods1
Period
Exports
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995- I
II
ra
IV
1996- I
II
m
IV
1997- I
II*
250 208
320,230
362 120
389,307
416 913
440 352
456 832
502 398
575 871
612 069
138 389
143,181
145,360
148,941
150 048
153,411
150,764
157,846
162 527
171,489
Imports
-409765
-447,189
- 477 365
-498337
-490981
-536458
— 589441
- 668 590
-749431
- 803 239
- 182 790
- 190,739
- 188,180
- 187,722
Services
Net
balance
Net
military
transactions23
Net
travel
and
transportation
receipts
- 159 557 — 3 844 -7 613
- 126,959 -6320 -2591
-115245 — 6 749
4043
8002
- 109 030 -7599
-74068 — 5274
17032
- 96 106 — 1 448
19974
— 132 609
1 269 19764
-166192
1 874 16 519
- 173 560 3866
21 197
24 713
3 786
— 191 170
-44401
4312
722
-47,558
4,333
984
-42,820
5,755
1,289
-38,781
6,796
871
5 194
485
- 192 973 -42925
-47,562
5,818
1,214
-200,973
-52,493
-203,257
6,559
792
-48,190
7,147
1,295
-206,036
6 195
437
- 49 787
— 212 314
5,569
-46,903
-218,392
782
Investment income
Other
services,
net
17661
19,969
25662
27,401
31 284
38373
39274
43383
46,640
51 631
11062
11,442
11,892
12,240
12707
12,751
12,626
13,550
13 855
14,139
'Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.
2
Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports).
36
Balance
on
goods
and
services
Receipts
on U.S.
assets
abroad
Payments
on foreign
U.S.
Net
Balance
on goods, Unilatera
services, transfers,
net4
and
income
- 153 353 100 511 — 91 302
9209 — 144 144 — 23 909
-115 900 129 366 -115722
13 644 -102256 -25 988
15020 — 77 268 — 26 963
153 659 — 138639
-92288
-81225
163 324 - 139 402 23 921 - 57 304 — 34 588
20249 — 10 779
141 408 — 121 159
— 31 027
5 122
125 852 -107 836
18016 — 21 191 — 35 192
-39207
19668 — 52 634 — 38 137
— 72 301
129 844 — 110 176
9 723 — 94 693 — 38 845
154 510 — 144 787
— 104 416
6 808 - 95 049 — 34 046
- 101 857 196 880 — 190 072
206 400 — 203 577
2 824 — 108216 — 39 968
— 111 040
2047 — 26 258 — 8451
47218 — 45 171
— 28 305
50,303 -47,080
-30,799
3,223 -27,576 -8,128
-401
49,130 -49,531
-23,884
-24,285 -8,847
1,940 - 16,934 -8,620
50,230 -48,290
- 18,874
2061 — 22478 — 10 406
49277 — 47216
— 24539
883 -26,896 -8,689
50,188 -49,305
-27,779
51,893 -53,263 -1,370 -33,886 -8,947
-32,516
55,043 -53,793
-26,198
1,250 -24,948 -11,926
55269 — 57 259 — 1 990 — 31290 — 8682
— 29300
58,595 -62,149 - 3,554 -29,967 - 9,063
-26,413
3
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs.
See p. 37 far continuation of table.
4
on
current
— 168 053
-128245
— 104231
-91 892
— 5 657
— 56383
— 90 771
— 133 538
- 129 095
— 148 184
— 34 709
-35,704
-33,132
-25,554
— 32 884
-35,585
-42,833
-36,874
— 39 972
-39,030
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $29.6 billion in the second
quarter of 1997, following an increase of $62.0 billion in the first quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported
by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $27.1 billion in the second quarter, following an increase
of $17.4 billion in the first quarter.
BILUONS OF DOLLARS*
200
180
160
/
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS •
200
Jh
^
/
180
/
\
/
160
140
140
FOREIGN ASSETS
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
\
/
,\
- f i \\v '?v •' N /-.
..
_/ /
\
\
/
\
V
1
'A '
/
/
\'
/'L
/
V
,
•y
L
\
- —-J
*
\
\ A
\s
-
\ i/
'
,\
I
\
i"s -i
\ 1
\1
-'- V '*> ^
1 1
1988
i i i
i
1989
80
-\
60
»
40
/
20
-
r-—\
V Al
f
0
-
\
'\
CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
\BROAD, NE1
sV
i
i
1
1 1
i
1991
1990
i
i
1992
1
1 1
1993
-20
^-\
1
\
120
1
J
-|
-100
1987
\'
100
/
-80
i i i
-
/
*
/
-60
160
120
v ;
\-'
M
A l\\
l\\J\1 ^--^
V
140
/
i
i
i
i
1994
A
A\ Av
»
111
1995
-40
A
-
A
\
-
-60
-80
-
\
-120
\
-140
i i i*
1996
>
i
i
-160
1997
COUNO. Of ECONOMIC ADVEEK
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow ( + )]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capit
)]
Period
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1995- I
II
m
IV
1996- I
II
HI
IV
1997- I
UP
U.S.
official
reserve
assets35
-72,617
9,149
-100,221 -3,912
168 744 -25,293
-74,011 -2,158
-57,881
5,763
-68,774
3,901
-194,537 -1,379
-160,516
5,346
-307,207 -9,742
6,668
-352,444
-59,625 -5,318
-110,548 -2,722
-40,679 -1,893
191
-96,356
-70,768
17
-49,698
-523
7,489
-77,542
-315
- 154,436
4,480
-127,969
-95,492
-236
Other U.S.
Government
assets
1,006
2,967
1,259
2,307
2,911
- 1,657
-342
-352
-549
-690
-158
-184
266
-473
-210
-358
162
-284
-21
-238
U.S.
private
assets
82 771
-99,275
-144,710
-74,160
-66,555
-71,018
-192,817
-165,510
-296 916
-358,422
-54,149
- 107 642
-39,052
-96,074
-70,575
-48,817
-85,193
-153,837
-132,428
-95,018
Total
248,383
246,065
224,390
140,992
109,641
168,776
279,671
297,337
451,234
547,555
97,652
122,714
125,839
105,029
88,233
106,114
158,629
194,579
182,238
151,649
5
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDIls), foreign currencies, and the l"-S. reserve
position in the IMF.
Foreign
official
assets3
Other
foreign
assets
45,387
39,758
8,503
33,910
17,389
40,477
71,753
40,385
110,729
122,354
22,098
37,138
39,585
11,908
52,014
13,154
24,089
33,097
28,891
-3,719
202,996
206,307
215,887
107,082
92,253
128,299
207,918
256,952
340,505
425,201
75,554
85,576
86,254
93,121
36,219
92,960
134,540
161,482
153,347
155,368
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special Total (sum
Of which:
drawing
Seasonal
of the items
rights
with sign
adjustment
(SDKs)
reversed)
discrepancy
-7,713
- 17,600
48,585
24,911
-46,103
-43,619
5,637
-3,283
-14,931
-46,927
-3,318
23,538
-52,028
16,881
15,419
-20,831
-38,254
-3,269
-14,297
-17,127
5,658
-775
-6,985
2,106
6,228
- 1,076
-7,830
2,669
7,059
-1,768
U.S. official
reserve
assets, net5
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
45,798
47,802
74,609
83,316
77,721
71,323
73,442
74,335
85,832
75,089
86,761
90,063
87,152
85,832
84,212
83,455
75,509
75,089
67,222
67,813
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
Pa e
TOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME AND SPENDING
«
Gross Domestic Product
Real Gross Domestic Product
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
Real Private Fixed Investment by Type
Business Investment and Plans
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY. CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
,
,
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
U.S. International Transactions
,
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
P Preliminary.
' Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
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