Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1992
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102d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1992 (Includes data available as of December 1, 1992) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers L I & it A- R V .OEC 1 6 199? FEDERAL RESERVL SANK OF CHICAGO UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1992 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana,'Vice Chairman SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) CONNIE MACK (Florida) ROBERT C. SMITH (New Hampshire) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) KWEISI MFUME (Maryland) RICHARD K. ARMEY (Texas) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) STEVEN QUICK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman DAVID F. BRADFORD, Member PAUL WONNACOTT, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy ($3.44 foreign), or by subscription at $30.00 per year ($37.50 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office, Washington, DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-039676-X 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the third quarter of 1992, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.6 percent (annual rate) or $80.3 billion. Real GDP (GDP in 1987 dollars) rose 3.9 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 1.7 percent. BILUON S OF DOUARS (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 5,600 5,600 ^ 5,200 x GDP IN 1 987 DOLLAR S 4,800 S~ ^— 5,200 ^ _ ,,• f — — 4,800 S __.-y^" \ 4,400 4,000 X s y » X ----3,400 3,200 2,800 l l 1982 i / 1 1 X x """ / "^ ^r 4,400 \ \ 4,000 GDP INC'URRENT DO .LARS ^ 3,600 3,200 1 1 1983 1 1984 t ! 1 i 1 1985 i i I 1986 1987 t t 1 1989 1988 I i I t i 1991 1990 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE 2,800 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV m IV 1991- I n in IV .... 1992- I n in ' 1 Gross domestic product 3,149.6 3,405.0 3,777.2 4,038.7 4,268.6 4,539.9 4,900.4 5,250.8 5,522.2 5,677.5 3,195.1 3,547.3 3,869.1 4,140.5 4,336.6 4,683.0 5,044.6 5,344.8 5,559.6 5,561.3 5,585.8 5,657.6 5,713.1 5,753.3 5,840.2 5,902.2 5,982.5 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,059.2 2,257.5 2,460.3 2,667.4 2,850.6 3,052.2 3,296.1 3,523.1 3,748.4 3,887.7 2,128.7 2,346.8 2,526.4 2,739.8 2,923.1 3,124.6 3,398.2 3,599.1 3,787.8 3,818.2 3,821.7 3,871.9 3,914.2 3,942.9 4,022.8 4,057.1 4,108.1 503.4 546.7 718.9 714.5 717.6 749.3 793.6 832.3 799.5 721.1 464.2 614.8 722.8 737.0 697.1 800.2 814.8 825.2 805.7 739.0 705.4 710.2 732.8 736.1 722.4 773.2 786.4 Federal Net exports -20.6 51 4 -102.7 -115.6 -132.5 -143.1 - 108.0 -79.7 -68.9 21 8 -29.5 -71.8 -107.1 -135.5 — 133.2 -143.2 - 106.0 -73.9 -76.3 -67.2 -28.7 153 -27.1 -16.0 81 -37.1 -34.9 Exports Imports 282.6 276.7 302.4 302.1 319.2 364.0 444.2 508.0 557.0 598.2 265.6 286.2 308.7 304.7 333.9 392.4 467.0 523.8 555.9 579.7 573.2 594.3 602.3 622.9 628.1 625.4 639.5 303.2 328.1 405.1 417.6 451.7 507.1 552.2 587.7 625.9 620.0 295.1 358.0 415.7 440.2 467.1 535.6 573.1 597.7 632.2 646.9 602.0 609.6 629.5 638.9 636.2 662.5 674.4 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Government purchases Exports and imports of goods and services Total Total 607.6 652.3 700.8 772.3 833.0 881.5 918.7 975.2 1,043.2 1,090.5 631.6 657.6 727.0 799.2 849.7 901.4 937.6 994.5 1,042.4 1,071.3 1,087.5 1,090.8 1,093.3 1,090.3 1,103.1 1,109.1 1,122.9 266.6 292.0 310.9 344.3 367.8 384.9 387.0 401.6 426.4 447.3 281.4 289.7 324.7 356.9 373.1 392.5 392.0 405.1 422.6 438.3 451.3 449.9 447.2 440.8 445.0 444.8 454.1 National defense 193.8 214.4 233.1 258.6 276.7 292.1 295.6 299.9 314.0 323.8 205.5 222.8 242.9 268.6 278.6 295.8 296.8 302.5 308.4 323.2 332.4 325.9 321.9 314.7 313.6 311.7 318.4 Nondefense 72.7 77.5 77.8 85.7 91.1 92.9 91.4 101.7 112.4 123.6 75.9 66.9 81.9 88.3 94.5 96.7 95.2 102.6 114.3 115.0 118.8 124.0 125.3 126.1 131.4 133.1 135.7 State and local 341.1 360.3 389.9 428.1 465.3 496.6 531.7 573.6 616.8 643.2 350.3 367.9 402.2 442.4 476.6 509.0 545.7 589.3 619.7 633.0 636.3 640.8 646.0 649.5 658.0 664.3 668.8 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases * Addendum: Gross national product 3,165.5 3,410.6 3,706.1 4,014.1 4,260.0 4,513.7 4,884.2 5,217.5 5,515.9 5,687.7 3,241.4 3,527.1 3,818.1 4,107.9 4,355.4 4,623.7 5,027.3 5,314.6 5,549.2 5,592.3 5,614.4 5,679.4 5,712.9 5,744.2 5,855.9 5,894.1 5,961.4 3,170.2 3,456.5 3,879.9 4,154.3 4,401.2 4,683.0 5,008.4 5,330.5 5,591.1 5,699.3 3,224.6 3,619.1 3,976.2 4,276.0 4,469.8 4,826.2 5,150.7 5,418.7 5,635.9 5,628.5 5,614.6 5,672.9 5,740.3 5,769.3 5,848.3 5,939.4 6,017.3 3,179.8 3,434.4 3,801.5 4,053.6 4,277.7 4,544.5 4,908.2 5,266.8 5,542.9 5,694.9 3,222.6 3,578.4 3,890.2 4,156.2 4,340.5 4,690.5 5,054.3 5,365.0 5,577.8 5,592.7 5,614.9 5,674.3 5,726.4 5,764.1 5,859.8 5,909.3 5,993.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1987 DOLLARS [Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 .... .... .... .... Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidentia] fixed investment Residential fixed investment Change in business inventories Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense State and local Nondefense Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases J Addendum: Gross national product 3,760.3 3,906.6 4,148.5 4,279.8 4,404.5 4,540.0 4,718.6 4,838.0 4,877.5 4,821.0 2,503.7 2,619.4 2,746.1 2,865.8 2,969.1 3,052.2 3,162.4 3,223.3 3,260.4 3,240.8 433.9 420.8 490.2 521.8 500.3 497.8 530.8 540.0 538.1 500.2 — 7.4 124.1 -17.5 4.4 -56.1 174.2 67.9 -122.0 199.3 22.1 1453 202.0 226.2 8.5 -155.1 225.2 26.3 -143.0 222.7 19.9 - 104,0 214.2 29.8 73 7 51 8 194.8 6.2 170.2 9 3 -21.8 296.7 285.9 305.7 309.2 329.6 364.0 421.6 471.8 510.0 539.4 304.1 342.1 427.7 454.6 484.7 507.1 525.7 545.4 561.8 561.2 723.6 743.8 766.9 813.4 855.4 881.5 886.8 904.4 929.9 941.0 306.0 320.8 331.0 355.2 373.0 384.9 377.3 376.1 383.6 388.3 221.4 234.2 245.8 265.6 280.6 292.1 287.0 281.4 283.3 282.8 84.7 86.6 85.1 89.5 92.4 92.9 90.2 94.8 100.3 105.5 417.6 423.0 436.0 458.2 482.4 496.6 509.6 528.3 546.3 552.7 3,777.8 3,902.2 4,080.6 4,257.6 4,395.9 4,513.7 4,698.6 4,808.3 4,871.3 4,830.3 3,767.7 3,962.8 4,270.5 4,425.1 4,559.6 4,683.0 4,822.6 4,911.7 4,929.3 4,842.8 3,796.1 3,939.6 4,174.5 4,295.0 4,413.5 4,544.6 4,726.3 4,852.7 4,895.9 4,836.4 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 3,759.6 4,012.1 4,194.2 4,333.5 4,427.1 4,625.5 4,779.7 4,856.7 2,539.3 2,678.2 2,784.8 2,895.3 3,012.5 3,074.7 3,202.9 3,242.0 417.2 449.6 509.6 525.5 495.5 510.6 538.8 536.7 131.2 -44.9 -19.0 -83.7 190.6 29.3 198.8 47.9 — 131.4 207.4 30.2 -155.4 1560 230.5 -20.1 223.3 59.9 -136.0 102.7 225.3 20.9 24.9 -67.4 208.0 280.4 291.5 312.8 312.0 342.9 386.1 438.2 487.7 299.4 375.1 444.2 467.4 498.9 522.1 540.9 555.0 735.9 748.1 784.3 830.5 864.8 893.0 894.5 912.6 316.0 322.2 341.7 363.7 377.5 391.6 378.4 376.1 229.4 242.9 254.3 272.1 282.2 295.0 285.7 281.5 86.6 79.3 87.4 91.6 95.3 96.6 92.7 94.7 419.9 425.9 442.6 466.7 487.3 501.4 516.1 536.5 3,804.5 3,982.8 4,146.2 4,303.3 4,447.2 4,565.6 4,758.7 4,831.8 3,778.6 4,095.8 4,325.5 4,488.9 4,583.1 4,761.5 4,882.4 4,924.1 3,791.7 4,046.6 4,216.4 4,349.5 4,430.8 4,633.0 4,789.0 4,875.1 1990: I 4,890.8 4,902.7 4,882.6 4,833.8 3,259.5 3,260.1 3,273.9 3,248.0 544.8 535.6 542.9 529.3 210,7 201.8 189.1 177.5 7.5 32.8 11.2 268 -58.4 -56.9 593 32 7 500.2 508.7 508.4 522.6 558.6 565.6 567.7 555.3 926.8 929.4 924.8 938.5 383.4 385.4 378.3 387.3 284.9 285.1 277.3 285.8 98.5 100.3 101.0 101.5 543.4 544.0 546.5 551.2 4,883.3 4,870.0 4,871.4 4,860.6 4,949.2 4,959.7 4,941.9 4,866.5 4,907.8 4,915.5 4,898.9 4,861.4 1991: I 4,796.7 4,817.1 4,831.8 4,838.5 3,223.5 3,239.3 3,251.2 3,249.0 507.0 503.0 498.7 492.1 164.1 25 1 166.9 -20.4 172.6 .6 177.3 7.5 -17.9 17.4 -31.6 20.5 515.9 536.1 544.2 561.4 533.8 553.5 575.8 581.8 945.1 945.6 940.2 933.1 394.1 393.8 387.2 378.2 291.8 287.6 280.6 271.0 102.2 106.2 106.6 107.2 551.0 551.8 553.0 554.9 4,821.8 4,837.4 4,831.2 4,830.9 4,814.6 4,834.4 4,863.4 4,858.9 4,822.0 4,831.8 4,843.7 4,848.2 1992: 4,873.7 4,892.4 4,939.4 3,289.3 3,288.5 3,318.4 495.8 514.7 517.1 185.6 191.2 191.6 12 6 7.8 20.2 21 5 -43.9 49 8 565.4 563.4 576.2 586.8 607.3 625.9 937.0 934.2 941.8 375.3 372.7 378.4 265.6 262.1 266.4 109.7 110.6 112.1 561.8 561.5 563.4 4,886.3 4,884.6 4,919.2 4,895.2 4,936.3 4,989.1 4,890.7 4,899.1 4,949.0 n m IV n m rv 1 I n r m GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [1987=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Durable goods Nonresidential fixed Government purchases Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Total Nondurable goods Services Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 83.8 87.2 91.0 94.4 96.9 100.0 103.9 108.5 113.2 117.8 82.2 86.2 89.6 93.1 96.0 100.0 104.2 109.3 115.0 120.0 90.1 92.4 93.9 95.4 96.9 100.0 102.0 104.2 105.7 107.6 88.6 90.8 93.4 95.9 96.1 100.0 103.7 109.3 115.9 120.1 76.7 81.9 86.2 90.8 95.7 100.0 105.1 110.6 116.7 122.8 95.3 95.1 95.6 96.6 98.4 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.3 108.2 85.2 87.3 89.7 92.0 95.8 100.0 104.2 107.8 110.7 111.8 95.2 96.8 98.9 97.7 96.9 100.0 105.3 107.7 109.2 110.9 99.7 95.9 94.7 91.9 93.2 100.0 105.1 107.8 111.4 110.5 87.1 91.0 93.9 96.9 98.6 100.0 102.6 106.8 111.2 115.2 87.6 91.6 94.8 97.3 98.6 100.0 103.0 106.6 110.8 114.5 85.9 89.5 91.3 95.7 98.6 100.0 101.4 107.3 112.0 117.1 81.7 85.2 89.4 93.4 96.4 100.0 104.3 108.6 112.9 116.4 85.0 88.4 92.2 95.5 98.0 101.2 105.5 110.1 83.8 87.6 90.7 94.6 97.0 101.6 106.1 111.0 90.6 93.3 94.4 95.9 97.8 101.0 103.1 104.9 89.4 91.8 94.1 97.0 96.3 101.5 105.6 110.8 79.0 83.7 87.7 92.9 97.3 101.9 107.1 112.7 95.3 95.0 96.4 97.3 99.2 100.7 104.0 106.0 86.0 88.0 90.7 93.1 97.3 101.5 105.3 108.8 94.7 98.2 98.7 97.7 97.4 101.6 106.6 107.4 98.5 95.4 93.6 94.2 93.6 102.6 106.0 107.7 89.0 89.9 95.0 98.1 98.8 100.2 103.6 107.7 89.6 91.7 95.5 98.7 98.7 100.3 103.9 107.5 87.7 84.3 93.7 96.4 99.2 100.1 102.6 108.4 83.4 86.4 90.9 94.8 97.8 101.5 105.7 109.9 1990: m IV 113.9 115.0 115.7 117.6 105.8 106.1 116.6 119.3 117.6 119.3 107.8 108.2 111.1 111.0 109.3 110.9 111.4 116.5 111.7 113.2 111.2 113.1 113.2 113.3 113.4 114.8 1991: I II III IV 116.5 117.5 118.2 118.9 118.6 119.5 120.4 121.4 106.7 107.3 108.0 108.3 119.4 119.9 120.2 120.8 120.8 122.1 123.4 124.7 108.7 108.5 108.0 107.4 111.3 111.6 112.5 111.8 111.1 110.9 110.7 111.0 112.8 110.1 109.3 109.8 114.5 114.3 115.5 116.6 113.9 113.3 114.7 116.2 116.2 116.8 117.6 117.6 115.5 116.1 116.8 117.1 1992: I II Ill ' 119.8 120.6 121.1 122.3 123.4 123.8 108.6 109.4 109.7 121.4 122.2 122.9 126.1 127.4 127.7 107.1 106.9 105.9 111.7 112.3 113.5 111.1 111.0 111.0 108.4 109.1 107.7 118.6 119.3 120.0 118.1 118.9 119.5 119.8 120.3 121.0 117.1 118.3 118.7 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: .... .... .... .. .... IV ... IV IV IV .. IV IV IV IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GDP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND PRICE INDEXES [Percent change from preceding year or quarter; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Period Current dollars 11.9 3.9 8.1 10.9 6.9 5.7 6.4 7.9 7.2 5.2 2.8 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1988- TTT IV 1989- I . . .... 7.6 8.1 8.6 6.3 3.8 5.1 7.7 5.8 2.7 .1 n m 1990: IV I n m IV 1991- I 1.8 5.2 4.0 2.8 6.2 4.3 5.6 n m rv 1992- I n r m Constant (1987) dollars Fixed-weighted price index (1987 weights) Implicit price deflator 10.0 6.2 4.1 4.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 1.8 2.2 3.9 6.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.9 2.5 .8 -1.2 2.5 3.9 3.2 1.8 0 1.5 2.8 1.0 -1.6 39 -3.0 1.7 1.2 .6 2.9 1.5 3.9 5.1 3.9 5.4 4.6 3.8 3.7 4.4 4.8 4.7 3.9 5.3 3.5 2.4 2.4 3.1 2.7 1.7 Current dollars Constant (1987) dollars Implicit price deflator 1.2 1.1 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.6 2.8 3.6 1.9 1.2 6 2.9 4.1 .1 1.1 2.9 .8 2.2 .1 1.7 -3.1 -3.0 2.0 1.5 .3 5.1 -.1 3.7 9.0 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.9 3.1 4.2 4.2 4.9 5.2 4.3 5.1 4.7 5.0 5.7 3.3 4.4 6.3 4.7 6.1 6.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.0 3.6 1.3 10.2 6.9 9.6 9.0 8.4 6.9 7.1 8.0 6.9 6.4 3.7 8.4 8.9 5.1 7.0 6.3 5.3 8.4 4.8 8.0 3.2 .4 5.4 4.4 3.0 8.4 3.5 5.1 6.1 3.8 3.3 3.5 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.4 3.7 5.0 4.7 3.7 3.6 5.4 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.7 3.5 3.0 2.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 Fixed- weighted price index (1987 weights) 8.6 5.4 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 4.1 4.3 4.9 5.3 4.4 5.4 4.6 5.2 5.9 3.5 4.3 6.4 4.4 6.4 6.8 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19821983: 1984: 19851986: 1987198819891990- IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I II Ill IV 1991- I II III IV 1992: I II p iii 1 2 Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) l Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Current dollars 1987 dollars 1,748.6 1,802.8 1,936.1 2,166.5 2,293.6 2,386.3 2,547.3 2,764.8 2,913.5 3,036.5 3,073.8 1,806.3 2,037.2 2,228.2 2,338.8 2,422.8 2,627.6 2,843.2 2,951.5 2,999.6 3,053.1 3,048.2 3,045.0 3,037.1 3,062.7 3,084.4 3,111.1 3,138.1 3,178.8 3,211.9 2,035.1 2,001.3 2,112.3 2,284.1 2,364.3 2,439.3 2,547.3 2,684.8 2,718.9 2,740.0 2,698.0 1,999.6 2,204.2 2,328.4 2,396.9 2,463.3 2,604.0 2,719.0 2,722.7 2,742.0 2,763.3 2,737.3 2,717.4 2,683.5 2,687.4 2,699.1 2,722.0 2,737.6 2,760.8 2,787.9 Total cost and profit 2 0.859 .901 .917 .949 .970 .978 1.000 1.030 1.072 1.108 1.139 .903 .924 .957 .976 .984 1.009 1.046 1.084 1.094 1.105 1.114 1.121 1.132 1.140 1.143 1.143 1.146 1.151 1.152 Consumption of fixed capital 0.102 .115 .115 .109 .109 .111 .110 .111 .117 .120 .126 .119 .119 .111 .110 .112 .110 .112 .120 .118 .118 .121 .123 .126 .127 .127 .126 .125 .126 .130 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in 1987 dollars. This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Indirect business taxes a sation of employees Net interest Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total 0.082 0.572 0.035 0.067 .085 .088 .091 .093 .095 .095 .096 .101 .106 .115 .086 .088 .091 .093 .095 .094 .097 .102 .104 .104 .107 .109 .113 .114 .117 .117 .118 .117 .118 .605 .602 .617 .636 .648 .658 .676 .706 .737 .759 .607 .602 .623 .643 .654 .664 .687 .718 .724 .730 .744 .750 .754 .760 .763 .761 .760 .759 .756 .041 .036 .038 .038 .040 .042 .045 .054 .054 .053 .040 .036 .041 .038 .042 .042 .047 .055 .054 .054 .054 .055 .054 .053 .053 .052 .050 .049 .047 .056 .076 .094 .094 .084 .096 .102 .094 .091 .085 .051 .079 .091 .092 .081 .099 .102 .088 .093 .098 .088 .083 .084 .086 .084 .086 .093 .100 .101 4 Profits tax liability 0.031 .023 .028 .032 .030 .031 .037 .038 .037 .034 .030 .020 .029 .027 .030 .035 .038 .040 .033 .033 .034 .036 .033 .029 .030 .031 .030 .033 .037 .035 Profits after tax 4 0.036 .033 .048 .062 .064 .053 .059 .064 .057 .057 .055 .030 .050 .064 .063 .045 .060 .063 .055 .060 .065 .052 .050 .055 .056 .053 .056 .060 .064 .066 Output per hour of all employees (1987 dollars) ' Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) ' 20.553 20.819 21.586 21.896 22.125 22.690 23.071 23.494 23.088 23.300 r 23.720 21.094 21.895 22.032 22.315 22.838 23.286 ' 23.446 ' 23.054 r 23.122 r 23.375 r 23.293 ' 23.437 r 23.522 ' 23.646 ' 23.769 r 24.014 r 24.152 r 24.301 11.764 12.586 12.995 13.509 14.067 14.711 15.170 15.781 16.306 17.169 ' 18.011 12.805 13.187 13.718 14.339 14.940 15.471 '16.018 ' 16.550 ' 16.741 ' 17. 067 r 17.322 ' 17.572 ' 17.724 ' 17.967 r 18.129 ' 18.278 ' 18.359 r 18.452 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. * See Note, p. 16. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1983. 1984 1985 .. 1986 1987 .. 1988 1989... 1990 1991... 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: IV 1989: IV 1990: III IV 1991- I II III IV 1992- 1 II r 2,720.8 3,058.3 3,268.4 3,437.9 3,692.3 4,002.6 4,249.5 4,468.3 4,544.2 2,551.5 2,834.3 3,134.4 3,341.9 3,486.0 3,828.8 4,127.6 4,305.2 4,479.3 4,517.9 4,493.0 4,529.2 4,555.4 4,599.1 4,679.4 4,716.5 4,714.3 in 1 2,029.4 2,226.9 2,382.8 2,523.8 2,698.7 2,921.3 3,100.2 3,291.2 3,390.8 1,940.4 2,101.2 2,288.1 2,442.5 2,582.5 2,785.1 3,004.9 3,162.8 3,320.5 3,339.6 3,343.0 3,379.6 3,407.0 3,433.8 3,476.3 3,506.3 3,529.8 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm 22.1 23.3 18.7 8.7 3.2 4.3 13 5 -12.3 -10.4 24.1 22.2 24.3 14.0 4.7 6.8 2.8 -21.6 -9.5 -9.6 12 4 -12.3 -10.3 -6.6 -4.5 3.3 5.0 184.3 214.7 238.4 261.5 279.0 293.4 307.0 325.2 332.2 169.6 193.8 217.7 250.9 260.9 282.6 302.5 311.4 328.8 329.7 322.2 329.1 337.6 340.0 353.6 359.9 366.1 2.4 21.3 21.5 22.3 31.3 30.9 40.2 41.7 35.8 10.2 6.3 21.9 17.8 23.6 42.4 30.9 38.4 32.2 42.8 34.3 41.3 29.5 37.9 40.1 38.5 31.5 Includes employer contributions (or social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 212.7 264.2 280.8 271.6 319.8 365.0 362.8 361.7 346.3 150.3 229.1 261.3 284.9 264.6 343.3 378.3 354.5 351.4 344.0 349.6 347.3 341.2 347.1 384.0 388.4 370.4 202.2 236.4 225.3 227.6 273.4 320.3 325.4 341.2 337.8 160.0 216.2 223.6 228.0 225.0 293.4 340.5 320.6 334.4 333.5 344.2 342.2 331.9 333.1 360.7 361.4 340.7 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 210.7 240.5 225.0 217.8 287.9 347.5 342.9 355.4 334.7 168.6 223.8 220.1 231.8 235.7 311.2 372.2 334.1 367.0 354.7 337.6 332.3 336.7 332.3 366.1 376.8 350.5 -8.5 41 2 9.7 - 14.5 -27.3 -17.5 -14.2 3.1 -8.6 -7.6 3.5 -3.8 -10.7 -17.8 -31.7 — 13.5 -32.6 -21.2 6.7 9.9 -4.8 .7 54 -15.5 98 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 10.4 27.8 55.5 44.1 46.4 44.7 37.4 20.5 8.4 -9.6 12.9 37.7 56.9 39.6 49.9 37.9 33.9 17.0 10.5 5.3 5.1 9.3 14.1 23.3 27.0 29.7 270.0 307.9 326.2 350.2 360.4 387.7 452.7 460.7 449.5 256.8 281.8 321.1 331.9 349.7 368.6 408.1 459.8 456.0 471.4 456.2 444.4 450.5 446.9 430.0 420.0 411.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1987 DOLLARS [Billions of 1987 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1983 1984 .. 1985 1986 1987 .. 1988 1989... 1990 1991 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: IV 1989: IV 1990: III IV 1991: I II Ill IV 1992: I II Ill '.... 1 Total personal consumption expenditures 2,619.4 2,746.1 2,865.8 2,969.1 3,052.2 3,162.4 3,223.3 3,260.4 3,240.8 2,539.3 2,678.2 2,784.8 2,895.3 3,012.5 3,074.7 3,202.9 3,242.0 3,273.9 3,248.0 3,223.5 3,239.3 3,251.2 3,249.0 3,289.3 3,288.5 3,318.4 Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 297.7 138.1 160.3 180.2 193.3 183.5 194.8 196.4 192.2 171.0 123.7 151.6 164.3 173.9 193.6 183.6 197.7 188.3 191.3 182.0 169.6 167.2 173.3 174.0 181.5 180.2 179.2 338.5 370.1 402.0 403.7 428.7 440.7 439.3 414.7 272.3 319.1 347.7 369.6 415.7 404.7 439.2 436.8 437.7 426.6 412.0 411.3 419.4 416.1 432.3 430.0 439.9 Includes other items, not shown separately. Other 104.3 55.3 115.3 123.8 136.3 144.0 155.4 165.8 169.5 168.6 96.4 109.3 118.7 128.6 141.4 145.9 160.3 167.9 168.9 167.5 166.9 169.3 170.4 167.9 174.4 174.4 181.4 62.9 66.1 72.4 76.2 78.5 78.5 77.6 75.0 52.3 58.1 64.8 67.1 80.7 75.2 81.2 80.5 77.5 77.1 75.5 74.8 75.7 74.2 76.5 75.4 79.4 Total nondurable goods 900.3 934.6 958.7 991.0 1,011.1 1,051.6 1,056.5 1,042.4 880.7 915.2 942.9 968.7 1,000.9 1,014.6 1,046.8 1,058.9 1,059.1 1,051.6 1,043.0 1,046.3 1,044.8 1,035.6 1,049.6 1,045.6 1,052.2 Food 463.4 472.3 483.0 494.1 500.7 513.4 515.0 520.8 515.8 458.3 467.1 475.1 488.2 496.9 502.4 518.0 515.6 521.6 522.0 516.4 516.3 515.0 515.3 518.9 513.5 514.5 Clothing and shoes 142.4 153.1 158.8 170.3 174.5 178.9 187.8 185.9 181.3 135.7 147.7 154.7 161.7 171.9 174.5 182.8 190.9 186.2 183.2 180.8 183.2 183.7 177.5 184.1 184.4 191.0 Gasoline and oil 75.7 77.9 79.2 82.9 84.7 86.1 87.3 86.4 85.2 73.4 76.9 79.0 79.5 84.6 85.4 87.5 88.6 86.7 85.0 83.9 86.0 86.0 84.7 85.7 85.8 85.8 Retail sales of newpassenger cars (millions of units) Services Nondurable goods Furniture and household equipment Fuel oil and coal 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.4 10.1 9.7 10.5 11.4 11.1 11.4 12.4 11.9 12.0 12.0 10.9 8.8 9.4 9.8 10.0 9.4 10.2 12.0 10.9 Other 207.8 220.0 226.2 231.7 239.1 244.7 250.2 253.4 250.5 202.8 212.2 222.9 228.0 235.2 240.4 246.4 251.8 253.7 252.7 252.5 251.0 250.0 248.6 250.7 249.8 250.0 Total services l 1,421.4 1,473.0 1,537.0 1,576.1 1,637.4 1^698.5 1,731.0 1,764.6 1^783.7 1,386.2 1,443.9 1,494.2 1,557.1 1,595.8 1,655.5 1,716.9 1,746.3 1,777.1 1,769.8 1,768.5 1,781.8 1,787.0 1,797.4 1,807.3 1,812.9 1,826.3 Housing Medical care 415.5 426.8 435.9 442.1 452.5 461.8 469.2 474.7 478.2 411.0 419.7 431.3 438.1 444.8 457.0 465.6 471.3 475.1 476.1 476.5 477.9 478.8 479.8 481.2 483.3 485.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Domestics Imports 332.6 6.8 341.9 353.0 366.2 384.7 399.4 408.6 423.9 438.8 327.8 334.8 344.9 359.1 372.0 390.7 403.0 411.8 426.7 428.6 431.9 435.6 440.5 447.2 449.6 453.7 457.9 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.6 7.5 6.2 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $51.1 billion (annual rate) in October, following an increase of $24.4 billion in September. The increases were boosted by a number of special factors. In October, these included large subsidy payments to farm proprietors, bonus payments to employees in the motor vehicle industry, restitution payments to Japanese-Americans, a rebound in rental income of persons from the effects of Hurricane Iniki, and retirement incentive payments to U.S. Postal Service employees. In September, the special factors included the effects of Hurricane Iniki and a rebound from the effects of Hurricane Andrew, which had reduced both farm proprietors' income and rental income of persons in August, as well as subsidy payments to farm proprietors. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $18.4 billion in October and $13.0 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] 6,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 ^7; „ — 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,400 1,400 400 1984 1992 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987. . 1988 1989 1990. 1991 1991: Oct.. Nov Dee 1992: Jan Feb Mar.... May July ' Aug T'• Sept Oct" Total personal income 2,690.9 2,862.5 3,154.6 3,379.8 3,590.4 3,802.0 4,075.9 4,380.3 4,664.2 4,828.3 4,889.3 4,887.4 4,944.9 4,943.2 4,988.7 5,009.6 5,015.4 5,032.7 5,038.5 5,046.9 5,054.7 5,079.1 5,130.2 Wage and salary disbursements l 1,593.3 1,684.7 1,849.8 1,986.5 2,105.4 2,261.2 2,443.0 2,586.4 2,742.8 2,812.2 2,835.4 2,838.5 2,861.2 2,852.8 2,884.9 2,895.0 2,890.6 2,907.6 2,905.7 2,908.9 2,926.6 2,922.5 2,940.8 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income l 2 165.4 174.6 184.7 191.8 200.7 210.4 230.5 251.9 271.0 288.3 293.6 295.0 296.4 297.8 299.2 300.7 302.1 303.6 305.0 306.4 307.9 309.3 310.8 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Farm Nonfarm 13.5 2.4 21.3 21.5 22.3 31.3 30.9 40.2 41.7 35.8 40.9 29.1 43.8 30.5 40.7 49.0 48.1 36.1 31.4 30.6 24.9 39.1 56.0 157.3 184.3 214.7 238.4 261.5 279.0 293.4 307.0 325.2 332.2 339.7 339.5 340.7 349.0 354.8 356.9 358.6 359.2 361.9 363.6 364.4 370.3 374.7 Rental income of persons * 21.9 22.1 23.3 18.7 8.7 3.2 4.3 -13.5 123 -10.4 -12.3 48 -2.8 -4.2 62 -3.2 12 3.3 8.0 8.5 2.1 4.3 9.7 Personal dividend income 67.1 77.8 78.8 87.9 104.7 100.4 108.4 126.5 140.3 137.0 134.7 134.3 133.8 133.6 133.8 134.2 135.4 136.6 137.9 139.5 141.3 142.3 143.8 Personal interest income 376.8 397.5 461.9 498.1 531.7 548.1 583.2 668.2 694.5 700.6 703.8 703.4 702.6 693.1 684.4 676.9 676.0 675.2 674.4 670.4 666.7 663.0 660.0 Transfer pay- ments 5 408.1 438.9 452.9 485.9 517.8 542.2 576.7 625.0 685.8 771.1 794.1 793.7 811.7 835.5 844.3 848.2 854.2 860.9 864.1 869.4 872.5 879.7 887.2 4 Less: Persona! contributions for social insurance 112.3 119.7 132.8 149.1 162.1 173.6 194.5 211.4 224.8 238.4 240.7 241.2 242.5 244.9 247.3 248.2 248.3 249.8 249.9 250.4 251.7 251.5 252.6 Nonfarm personal income 6 2,649.8 2,832.6 3,106.1 3,333.2 3,545.6 3,749.4 4,023.9 4,318.0 4,599.6 4,770.4 4,826.5 4,836.5 4,879.3 4,890.7 4,925.8 4,938.2 4,944.9 4,973.9 4,984.4 4,993.5 5,007.0 5,017.1 5,051.1 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in 1987 dollars fell slightly in the third quarter of 1992. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] 2,000 DOLLARS- (RATIO SCALE] DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] 8,000 8,000 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments "F t Disposable income Less: Personal outlays ' Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1987 dollars (billions) Current dollars Billions of dollars 2,690.9 2,862.5 3,154.6 3,379.8 3,590.4 3,802.0 4,075.9 4,380.3 4,664.2 4,828.3 1982.. 1983 1984 . 1985 1986.. 1987 1988.. 1989 1990.. 1991 371.4 368.8 395.1 436.8 459.0 512.5 527.7 593.3 621.3 618.7 2,319.6 2'493.7 2,759.5 2,943.0 s'l31.5 3,289.5 3*548.2 3,787.0 4/042.9 4,209.6 Per capita personal consumption expenditures Per capita disposable personal income 1987 dollars Current dollars 1987 dollars 199.5 168.7 222.0 189.3 187.5 142.0 155.7 152.1 175.6 199.6 2,820.4 2,893.6 3 080.1 3 162.1 3 261.9 3 289.5 3,404.3 3 464.9 3,516.5 3 509.0 9 989 10,642 11 673 12 339 13 010 13 545 14,477 15 307 16,174 16 658 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent Dollars 2,120.1 2^325.1 2,537.5 2 753.7 2,944.0 3 147.5 3,392.5 3,634.9 3,867.3 4,009.9 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 12 146 12,349 13 029 13 258 13 552 13 545 13 890 14 005 14,068 13 886 8,868 10,782 9*634 10,408 11 184 11,843 12 568 13,448 14 241 14,996 15,384 11,179 11,617 12 015 12,336 12 568 12,903 13.029 13,044 12 824 01 1.7 5.5 1.8 2.2 _1 2.5 .8 .4 — 1.3 6.4 6.0 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.3 4.7 232,201 234,326 236,393 238,510 240^691 242,860 245^093 247,397 249^961 252,711 12,154 12,591 13,145 13,278 13,522 13,685 13,996 14,015 14,038 13,988 13,861 13,891 13,876 13,913 14,017 14,021 13,993 9,134 9,980 10,649 11,445 12,101 12,819 13,814 14,491 15,133 15,209 15,184 15,345 15,468 15,537 15,814 15,907 16,061 10,895 11,390 11,739 12,095 12,472 12,615 13,020 13,053 13,080 12,938 12,808 12,838 12,848 12,803 12,930 12,893 12,973 -0.5 7.2 1.0 1.8 -1.7 5.2 3.2 1.8 -2.3 -1.4 -3.6 .9 -.4 1.1 3.0 .1 -.8 7.7 6.8 7.9 6.0 4.8 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 5.1 4.9 5.3 4.5 233,060 235,146 237,231 239,387 241,550 243,745 246,004 248,372 250,303 251,050 251,687 252,329 253,053 253,776 254,388 255,054 255,785 8.6 6.8 8.0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV HI.... IV 1991: I n m.... IV 1992: I n nir.. 2,746.8 2,965.8 3,242.5 3,456.7 3,647.8 3,918.5 4,195.2 4,469.4 4,692.6 4,751.9 4,752.8 4,806.9 4,846.2 4,907.2 4,980.5 5,028.9 5,060.2 372.1 371.6 413.4 448.8 478.5 528.6 542.0 605.1 627.3 623.8 616.8 617.2 618.6 622.3 619.6 617.1 629.4 2,374.7 2,594.3 2,829.1 3,007.9 3,169.3 3,389.9 3,653.2 3,864.3 4,065.3 4,128.1 4,136.0 4,189.7 4,227.6 4,284.9 4,360.9 4,411.8 4,430.9 2,190.9 2,417.9 2,606.5 2,828.7 3,018.2 3,220.1 3,496.7 3,715.5 3,908.0 3,938.8 3,943.2 3,994.4 4,036.6 4,065.5 4,146.3 4,179.5 4,229.9 183.8 176.3 222.6 179.2 151.1 169.8 156.4 148.8 157.3 189.3 192.8 195.3 191.0 219.4 214.6 232.3 201.0 2,832.6 2,960.6 3,118.5 3,178.7 3,266.2 3,335.8 3,443.1 3,480.9 3,513.7 3,511.6 3,488.7 3,505.2 3,511.5 3,530.8 3,565.7 3,576.0 3,579.2 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 10,189 11,033 11,925 12,565 13,121 13,907 14,850 15,558 16,242 16,443 16,433 16,604 16,706 16,885 17,143 17,297 17,323 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Censi FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1992, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $2.3 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $1.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 160 120 240 "~1 ^ * ^ . . r—^n /I „ ^ ^T 200 •** 160 120 GROSS FAI M INCOME 80 80 60 60 N '*-,' » \/ 40 * X X X X j 1 s . V A / / / *~\ 1 \./ 40 \ / V y/ ' 20 ,~ -- 20 , NET FARM INCOME >i. /A/ V\* i, 10 1 1 1982 1 111 1983 10 \ 1984 1 1 1 1985 1 1986 1 1 1 i ii 1 1987 1988 \ \ \ 1 1 1990 1989 1 1 1 1 1 1991 1 1 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' Total 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1990: I II. m IV .. 1991: I II m IV 1992: I II" 166.3 164.1 153.9 168.0 161.2 156.1 168.4 174.5 190.3 195.1 189.6 141.6 142.6 136.8 142.8 144.1 135.3 141.8 151.1 160.9 170.0 167.4 199.3 191.5 188.3 201.6 166.0 166.8 173.7 173.4 189.1 189.8 185.2 194.1 165.2 165.5 170.7 168.0 192.4 194.7 165.8 167.7 Livestock and products 69.2 70.3 69.6 72.9 69.8 71.6 76.0 79.4 84.1 89.6 86.8 89.4 87.9 90.7 90.3 89.6 87.6 84.9 85.0 85.3 86.6 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 3 Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars 1987 dollars 3 72.5 72.3 67.2 69.9 74.3 63.7 65.8 71.6 76.8 80.4 80.6 6.5 -1.4 10 9 6.0 -2.3 -2.2 -2.3 -3.5 4.3 2.9 .4 139.4 140.3 139.6 141.9 132.4 125.1 128.7 133.9 140.2 144.3 144.9 26.9 23.8 14.2 26.1 28.8 31.0 39.7 40.6 50.1 50.8 44.6 34.1 28.5 16.3 28.7 30.5 32.0 39.7 39.1 46.2 45.0 38.0 76.6 78.9 83.0 83.1 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.2 142.0 143.5 143.8 147.9 57.2 48.0 44.4 53.6 51.4 42.6 39.0 46.6 75.6 77.9 85.8 83.0 1.2 .6 .1 — .1 145.8 147.2 143.1 143.4 43.2 42.5 42.0 50.6 37.1 36.1 35.5 42.5 80.5 81.1 3.8 3.6 143.6 144.8 48.8 49.9 40.8 41.4 Income in current dollars divided by the GDP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1992, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $26.3 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell $13.9 billion. The third quarter estimates reflect the effects of Hurricanes Andrew and Iniki. BILUONS OF DOLLARS BILUONS OF DOUARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES A. 350 \S\ PROFITS BEFORE TAX 250 PROFITS AFTER TAX 150 \ TAX LIABILITY UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS " 1 1 ! 1982 1983 1985 1 1 1986 1 1987 1989 1988 1 i i i 1 1990 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits after tax Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment * Domestic industries Period Nonfinancia! Total 2 Total 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ... . 1990 1991 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984- TV 1985- IV 1986: IV.. 1987- IV 1988: IV 1989: IV 1990- III rv II III.. . 1991- I IV 1992: I II . Ill'1 1 2 166.4 202.2 236.4 225.3 227.6 273.4 320.3 325.4 341.2 337.8 160.0 216.2 223.6 228.0 225.0 293.4 340.5 320.6 334.4 333.5 344.2 342.2 331.9 333.1 360.7 361.4 340.7 138.6 171.9 205.2 194.5 194.6 233.9 271.2 266.0 275.5 271.3 130.8 182.6 192.9 193.5 192.5 248.3 285.9 254.8 269.7 260.2 269.4 275.9 270.0 270.2 292.0 300.4 278.8 Financial 15.6 24.5 20.3 28.7 35.8 36.4 41.8 50.6 56.7 60.9 23.0 22.1 20.3 29.0 34.7 39.4 46.1 52.5 56.9 55.1 59.7 60.7 63.6 59.7 70.1 61.3 37.8 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Total * 123.0 147.4 185.0 165.8 158.9 197.5 229.4 215.3 218.8 210.4 107.8 160.5 172.6 164.5 157.8 207.0 239.7 202.3 212.8 205.1 209.7 215.1 206.4 210.5 221.9 239.0 241.0 Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade 63.1 71.4 86.7 80.1 59.0 87.0 117.5 108.0 106.9 89.3 50.1 90.5 79.2 83.3 63.9 98.7 129.3 94.5 110.6 96.3 87.6 90.3 91.8 87.5 97.5 115.2 31.9 38.7 49.7 43.1 46.3 39.9 37.1 39.7 35.8 44.0 33.8 40.7 50.8 39.0 43.1 39.3 39.3 39.2 30.0 35.0 44.1 45.5 41.7 44.5 39.9 46.7 Profits before tax 176.3 210.7 240.5 225.0 217.8 287.9 347.5 342.9 355.4 334.7 168.6 223.8 220.1 231.8 235.7 311.2 372.2 334.1 367.0 354.7 337.6 332.3 336.7 332.3 366.1 376.8 350.5 Tax liability 63.1 77.2 94.0 96.5 106.5 127.1 137.0 141.3 136.7 124.0 58.7 82.2 83.8 97.6 116.6 135.2 146.2 134.2 143.0 133.7 121.3 122.9 127.0 125.0 136.4 144.1 131.7 Total 113.2 133.5 146.4 128.5 111.3 160.8 210.5 201.6 218.7 210.7 109.9 141.6 136.3 134.2 119.2 176.0 226.0 200.0 224.0 221.0 216.3 209.4 209.6 207.4 229.7 232.7 218.8 Dividends 70.0 81.2 82.7 92.4 109.8 106.2 115.3 134.6 149.3 146.5 72.5 84.2 83.4 97.4 111.0 106.3 121.0 141.3 150.6 151.9 150.6 146.2 145.1 143.9 143.6 146.6 r !51.1 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 43.2 52.3 63.8 36.1 1.6 54.6 95.2 67.1 69.4 64.2 37.5 57.4 52.9 36.9 8.2 69.7 105.0 58.7 73.4 69.1 65.7 63.2 64.5 63.4 86.2 86.1 67.7 Inventory valuation adjustment -9.9 8.5 -4.1 .2 9.7 -14.5 27.3 -17.5 14.2 3.1 -8.6 76 3.5 3.8 -10.7 17.8 -31.7 - 13.5 32.6 — 21.2 6.7 9.9 -4.8 .7 -5.4 -15.5 r -9.8 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1987 DOLLARS According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1992, nonresidential fixed investment in 1987 dollars rose $2.4 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $0.4 billion. There was a $20.2 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $7.8 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 300 300 X 200 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 100 X -100 1982 1983 1984 1985 1987 1988 1991 1989 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV III IV 1991: I II Ill IV 1992: I II Ill ' Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analy! Gross private domestic investment Nonresidentia! Total Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Residential Total 540.5 599.5 757.5 745.9 735.1 749.3 773.4 784.0 739.1 661.1 558.0 595.1 689.6 723.8 726.5 723.0 753.4 754.2 732.9 670.4 433.9 420.8 490.2 521.8 500.3 497.8 530.8 540.0 538.1 500.2 181.3 160.3 182.8 197.4 176.6 171.3 174.0 177.6 179.1 157.6 252.6 260.5 307.4 324.4 323.7 326.5 356.8 362.5 359.0 342.6 124.1 174.2 199.3 202.0 226.2 225.2 222.7 214.2 194.8 170.2 -17.5 4.4 67.9 22.1 8.5 26.3 19.9 29.8 6.2 -9.3 503.5 669.5 756.4 763.1 705.9 793.8 785.0 769.5 548.4 640.2 708.4 732.9 725.9 733.9 764.1 744.6 417.2 449.6 509.6 525.5 495.5 510.6 538.8 536.7 173.2 162.6 189.5 198.3 170.4 177.9 175.7 179.8 244.0 287.0 320.1 327.2 325.0 332.7 363.1 356.9 131.2 190.6 198.8 207.4 230.5 223.3 225.3 208.0 -44.9 29.3 47.9 30.2 -20.1 59.9 20.9 24.9 743.1 680.0 732.0 706.8 542.9 529.3 181.2 173,2 361.7 356.1 189.1 177.5 11.2 26 8 646.0 649.5 672.0 676.9 671.1 669.8 671.4 669.3 507.0 503.0 498.7 492.1 166.8 162.2 153.0 148.4 340.2 340.8 345.8 343.7 164.1 166.9 172.6 177.3 -25.1 -20.4 .6 7.5 668.9 713.6 728.9 681.4 705.9 708.7 495.8 514.7 517.1 149.4 149.1 143.4 346.4 365.6 373.7 185.6 191.2 191.6 -12.6 7.8 20.2 Nonfarm -20.7 12.8 66.2 19.8 10.6 32.7 26.9 29.9 3.7 -9.6 46 2 32.3 50.8 28.0 -18.6 62.1 30.5 31.2 6.6 25 6 -24.7 -24.5 -1.0 11.8 107 6.0 14.8 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department July-August 1992 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 4.3 percent in 1992, following a decline of 0.8 percent in 1991. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE| 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE| 600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 \ ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 \ NONMANUFACTURING^ 200 200 MANUFACTURING 100 I I I I 1984 I I 1986 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1991 I/SURVEYED QUARTERLY I/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 . 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 * 324.73 326.19 321.16 373.83 410.12 399.36 410.52 455.49 507.40 532.61 528.39 551.03 128.68 123.97 117.35 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.61 182.81 177.42 1990: I II III IV 531.61 535.19 533.12 530.98 1991: I n m IV . . 1992: I II III 4 IV4 10 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 230.09 239.11 242.38 278.77 302.05 309.16 320.45 344.77 380.13 399.34 405.12 196.06 202.22 203.82 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 339.99 345.58 373.62 Nondurable goods Total » Mining Transportation Public utilities 58.93 54.58 51.61 64.57 70.87 65.68 68.03 77.04 82.56 82.58 77.64 75.70 69.75 69.39 65.74 75.04 82.01 72.28 73.03 86.41 101.24 110.04 105.17 101.72 196.06 202.22 203.82 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 339.99 345.58 373.62 15.81 14.11 10.64 11.86 12.00 8.15 8.28 9.29 9.21 9.88 10.02 9.21 12.67 11.75 10.81 13.44 14.57 15.05 15.07 16.63 18.84 21.47 22.66 23.66 47.17 53.58 52.95 57.53 59.58 56.61 56.26 60.37 66.28 67.21 66.57 72.70 120.41 122.79 129.41 151.39 171.09 181.59 189.84 205.76 229.28 241.43 246.32 268.05 191.80 194.43 194.44 190.05 85.79 83.86 82.95 79.05 106.01 110.57 111.49 111.00 339.81 340.76 338.68 340.93 9.66 9.75 9.96 10.10 21.68 21.82 20.86 21.64 65.42 65.07 67.68 69.77 243.05 244.12 240.18 239.41 191.80 194.43 194.44 190.05 339.81 340.76 338.68 340.93 534.27 525.02 526.59 529.87 190.83 186.52 177.48 179.06 80.99 79.31 74.94 76.40 109.84 107.20 102.55 102.66 343.44 338.50 349.10 350.81 9.94 10.08 10.09 9,99 22.98 22.87 22.56 22.29 67.01 65.09 66.52 67.42 243.51 240.46 249.94 251.11 190.83 186.52 177.48 179.06 343.44 338.50 349.10 350.81 535.72 540.91 565.16 562.36 173.98 171.78 182.79 181.11 74.19 74.26 76.10 78.25 99.79 97.52 106.69 102.86 361.73 369.13 382.36 381.25 8.87 9.18 9.76 9.01 21.88 23.51 24.45 24.80 68.81 72.63 74.53 74.85 262.17 263.80 273.62 272.59 173.98 171.78 182.79 181.11 361.73 369.13 38236 381.25 Durable goods 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. Total nonfarm business 2 Commercial and other 358.77 363.08 359.73 418.38 454.93 447.11 461.51 508.22 563.93 591.96 587.93 128.68 123.97 117.35 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.61 182.81 177.42 Surveyed annually 3 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 56.53 59.35 59.54 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1992, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In October, civilian employment fell by 76,000 and unemployment fell by 238,000. MILLIONS OF PERSO NS* MILLI DNS OF PERSONS* 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 126 126 ^ CIVILIAN LABOR FC3RCE ~^ 122 118 ^ <^ 1 r'— 114 ^^ ^" 110 • ^. _^s* - 122 ••" **" -N , 118 ' ~"^C^ - 114 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT- 110 s--^"' 106 - 106 -^~- . -" 102 102 12 UNEMPLOYMENT 1985 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986' 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1991: Oct Nov Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept .... Oct Unemployment Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 173,939 1,668 ,676 ,697 ,706 ,706 ,737 ,709 ,688 ,637 ,564 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 125,557 126,424 126,867 101,194 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 188,081 189,686 191,329 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 119,030 119,550 118,440 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 123,869 124,787 125,303 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 117,914 116,877 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 3,199 3,186 3,233 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 114,142 114,728 113,644 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 4,657 4,860 5,767 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 191,903 192,057 192,209 ,614 ,605 1,604 127,122 126,979 127,223 118,481 118,377 118,332 125,508 125,374 125,619 116,867 116,772 116,728 3,204 113,663 3,272 113,500 3,183 113,545 6,055 6,123 6,084 192,358 192,469 192,607 192,745 192,881 193,025 193,190 193,356 193,513 193,683 1,599 1,585 1,585 1,577 1,574 1,570 1,568 1,566 1,566 1,552 127,645 127,872 128,175 128,407 128,734 129,119 129,100 129,003 128,839 128,511 118,716 118,628 118,933 119,252 119,230 119,144 119,340 119,303 119,267 119,177 126,046 126,287 126,590 126,830 127,160 127,549 127,532 127,437 127,273 126,959 117,117 117,043 117,348 117,675 117,656 117,574 117,772 117,737 117,701 117,625 3,166 3,232 3,194 3,209 3,178 3,252 3,204 3,218 3,242 3,160 6,429 6,213 6,180 5,910 6,210 5,824 6,058 6,091 6,079 6,188 Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Total 99,526 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Agricultural Total 113,951 113,811 114,155 114,465 114,478 114,322 114,568 114,519 114,459 114,465 Part time for economic reasons 1 5,852 Total 15 weeks and over Civilian Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 64.0 64.0 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 57.8 1,983 1,610 1,375 1,504 2,323 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 66.5 66.4 66.0 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 63.0 62.7 61.6 8,641 8,602 8,891 2,570 2,623 2,843 66.0 65.8 65.9 61.4 61.3 61.2 8,929 9,244 9,242 9,155 9,504 9,975 9,760 9,700 9,572 9,334 3,059 3,204 3,185 3,018 3,361 3,675 3,616 3,563 3,472 3,522 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.6 66.6 66.4 66.3 66.1 61.4 61.3 61.4 61.6 61.5 61.4 61.5 61.4 61.3 61.2 "Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. _ _ , , , „ , , , r, • • source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October, the civilian unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED] 15 10 1988 1988 1992 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1991: Oct Nov .... Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May .... June ... July .... Aug Sept Oct Unemployment rate, all workers 1 All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.7 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.4 6.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.7 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 6.3 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.4 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 Both sexes 16-19 years White 23.2 22.4 8.6 8.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 15.0 15.5 18.6 18.9 18.7 19.3 18.3 20.0 20.6 19.2 20.0 23.6 21.0 19.8 20.4 18.3 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.5 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By selected groups By race By sex and age Black and other Black 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.1 11.5 11.0 11.5 12.6 12.2 12.2 12.4 13.1 13.5 13.1 12.9 12.5 12.4 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 12.4 12.8 12.3 12.7 13.7 13.8 14.1 13.9 14.7 14.9 14.6 14.3 13.7 13.9 Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 6.5 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.4 4.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.9 5.2 6.5 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 6.6 6.7 6.8 4.2 4.5 4.7 9.4 9.1 9.1 6.6 6.5 6.8 8.4 8.6 8.6 7.7 7.9 8.1 6.9 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.1 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.5 9.0 9.1 6.8 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.0 9.1 8.8 9.0 8.8 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.1 9.5 9.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.3 7.4 8.3 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.9 6.2 7.6 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks was unchanged, the percentage for 5-14 weeks fell, and the percentages for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 19.4 weeks and the median duration fell to 9.3 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 70 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 45.7 48.3 54.7 55.1 54.8 56.2 53.7 57.8 57.3 56.5 57.7 56.3 56.1 56.1 56.6 59.1 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.6 11.4 11.5 10.3 11.0 9.8 9.9 11.3 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.7 9.9 9.6 Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadiusted)> Weekly average, thousands 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . . 1991: Oct Nov Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct . . 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 8,641 8,602 8,891 8,929 9,244 9,242 9,155 9,504 9,975 9,760 9,700 9,572 9,334 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 48.6 46.1 40.1 38.2 38.1 37.1 36.8 33.3 36.0 35.9 36.4 35.6 34.8 34.0 34.0 34.0 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 32.0 32.3 32.1 31.5 31.0 29.5 31.7 29.1 30.2 27.8 27.8 28.3 29.5 30.2 28.3 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 11.8 14.5 16.4 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.1 15.5 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.0 15.6 14.3 15.4 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 9.9 10.1 13.0 13.4 15.3 16.5 17.7 18.9 19.4 19.6 21.1 21.5 21.8 20.9 21.5 22.3 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 11.9 12.1 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.3 16.4 17.0 17.1 17.0 18.3 18.6 18.3 18.2 18.3 19.4 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 5.4 6.9 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.0 8.8 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.3 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 24.8 24.2 24.6 24.4 26.4 23.5 24.0 23.1 22.7 22.8 23.4 23.4 23.7 23.3 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 10.4 9.5 8.9 9.4 9.0 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.8 9.2 9.0 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.9 8.0 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,081 2,158 2,522 3,342 3,273 3,313 3,317 3,349 3,324 3,340 3,348 3,328 3,249 3,327 3,185 3,185 3,029 583 438 377 396 378 328 310 330 388 447 418 448 464 446 452 440 412 407 415 420 409 406 366 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,135 2,205 2,575 3,407 2,795 2,846 3,565 4,197 4,199 4,102 3,626 3,193 3,141 3,118 3,115 '2,815 2,538 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 27,000 in October. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 30 10 \ ^-—"I 80 ^^. - 1 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ES' ABLISHMEN' S 00 . — \ SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES - 60 2.0 18 40 GOOD S-PRODUCIh4G INDUSTRIES 30 r———^ v r— 1 CONSTRUCT"""*1 II II ll III 1 1 I' 1988 | | II II ll II 1 1 1989 1990 . ,, , , | ~lln\ 1991 1992 ' 1988 ' |M||| 1989 1990 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR II II III 1 III imilmii 1991 1992 ' COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Total Service-producing industries fltnl Period nonagricultural employ- Manufacturing Total 2 Con- ment Total urarne goods 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 .. 1991 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,536 108,329 109,782 108,310 23,813 23^334 24,727 24,859 24,558 24,708 25,173 25,322 24,960 23,830 3,905 3^948 4,383 4,673 4,816 4,967 5,110 5^187 5,133 4^685 18 781 18,434 19J378 19,260 18^965 19,024 19,350 19,442 19 117 18^455 11 014 10,707 11^479 11 464 11 ^203 11,167 11 381 11,420 11 130 10,602 1991: Oct .... Nov ... Dec .... 1992: Jan .... Feb .... Mar .... Apr .... May.... June .. July ... Aug '.. Sept '.. Oct "... 108,285 108,139 108,154 23,704 23,613 23,584 4,642 4,585 4,592 18,388 18,361 18,329 108,100 108,142 108,200 108,377 108,496 108,423 108,594 108,485 108,413 108,440 23,527 23,525 23,532 23,530 23,548 23,470 23,459 23,362 23,307 23,271 4,587 4,582 4,603 4,605 4,632 4,600 4,584 4,591 4,575 4,595 18,283 18,290 18,278 18,279 18,275 18,236 18,242 18,145 18,107 18,051 Nondurable goods Transportation and public utilities Finance, Wholesale trade Ketail trade insurance, and real estate Government Services Total 1K 5 865 6 055 6 221 6 200 6,069 15 161 15 595 16^526 17 336 17^909 18 462 19 077 19 549 19 677 19 259 5 468 5,'689 5 955 6^283 6 547 6 649 6 695 6 729 6 678 19 694 20,191 21 999 23^053 24 235 25 669 27 120 28 103 28 323 5,766 5,761 5,758 6,040 6,031 6,021 19,175 19,130 19,112 6,665 6,666 6,670 28,525 28,514 28,559 5,746 5,753 5,754 5,746 5,745 5,745 5,742 5,729 5,736 5,738 6,010 6,003 5,997 5,993 5,993 5,988 5,972 5,964 5,954 5,961 19,118 19,143 19,092 19,177 19,150 19,156 19,184 19,106 19,108 19,098 6,665 6,673 6,675 6,682 6,681 6,672 6,660 6,661 6,661 6,675 28,577 28,584 28,643 28,707 28,833 28,854 28,971 28,981 29,035 29,124 5 082 4 954 5459 7 796 7/761 7 858 7 969 8 022 7 988 7,852 65 753 66 866 69J69 72 660 74^967 77 492 80 363 83 007 84 822 84 480 5 238 5^255 5 372 5 527 5,644 5 808 5,772 10,530 10,498 10,466 7,858 7,863 7,863 84,581 84,526 84,570 10,422 10,430 10,417 10,409 10,398 10,371 10,347 10,298 10,275 10,234 7,861 7,860 7,861 7,870 7,877 7,865 7,895 7,847 7,832 7,817 84,573 84,617 84,668 84,847 84,948 84,953 85,135 85,123 85,106 85,169 7 767 7 726 7399 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 Total 5 296 5 286 5^574 5 736 5,114: 007 ltl,OO ( 15 869 16^024 16 394 17 17 17 18 18 010 386 779 304 380 18,410 18,424 18,450 18,457 18,461 18,507 18,542 18,546 18,538 18,606 18,682 18,612 18,573 Federal 2 739 2,774 2,'807 2,875 2^899 2,943 2 971 2,988 3 085 2,966 2,980 2,981 2,983 2,981 2,981 2,989 2,986 2,984 2,972 2,957 2,959 2,969 2,924 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Period Total private nonagricultural * 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 Total Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Current dollars Total private nonagncultural * 1982 dollars a Manufacturing Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Percent change from a year ear ier, total private nonagricultural 3 1982 dollars Current dollars 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.7 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 $7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.28 9.66 10.01 10.33 $7.68 7.79 7.80 7.77 7.81 7.73 7.69 7.64 7.52 7.45 $8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.19 10.48 10.83 11.18 $267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.02 334.24 345.35 354.32 $267.26 272.52 274.73 271.16 271.94 269.16 266.79 264.22 259.47 255.64 $330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.81 429.68 441.86 455.03 $426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 495.73 513.17 526.01 533.02 $163.83 171.13 174.47 174.81 175.80 178.80 183.62 188.72 194.40 198.77 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.6 .3 10 -.9 10 -1.8 -1.5 38.9 40.1 -1.2 2.0 .8 13 1991: Oct . Nov Dec 34.3 34.4 34.5 40.9 40.9 41.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 10.40 10.42 10.46 7.45 7.44 7.45 11.27 11.30 11.32 356.72 358.45 360.87 255.53 255.85 257.03 460.94 462.17 464.12 533.78 529.84 538.37 200.07 202.05 202.62 3.2 3.0 3.1 .5 .2 .4 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r. Sept ' Oct" 34.3 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.6 34.3 34.3 34.6 34.3 34.5 40.9 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.9 41.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.8 10.46 10.51 10.55 10.52 10.56 10.58 10.58 10.66 10.63 10.65 7.44 7.46 7.46 7.42 7.44 7.43 7.41 7.44 7.41 7.40 11.27 11.34 11.37 11.42 11.44 11.44 11.45 11.51 11.52 11.51 358.78 363.65 363.98 360.84 365.38 362.89 362.89 368.84 364.61 367.43 255.36 258.27 257.23 254.47 257.31 254.84 254.30 257.57 254.08 255.16 460.94 466.07 467.31 469.36 472.47 469.04 469.45 471.91 471.17 473.06 530.22 526.55 532.87 535.95 548.10 543.86 541.82 542.82 537.86 535.25 202.91 205.61 205.06 202.77 205.06 203.35 203.49 206.92 207.50 208.80 3.0 3.9 4.2 3.1 3.4 1.9 2.6 3.5 1.6 2.9 .6 1.1 1.2 .1 .6 -1.0 -.4 .4 -1.3 -.3 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1982=100 base). 3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Percent change from Index (June 1989 = 100) Period 12 months earlier 3 months earlier Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Dec Dec. Dec Dec. Dec Dec.. Dec. Dec Dec. Dec 75.8 80.1 84.0 87.3 90.1 93.1 97.6 102.3 107.0 111.7 77.6 81.4 84.8 88.3 91.1 94.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 110.0 71.4 76.7 81.7 84.6 87.5 90.5 96.7 102.6 109.4 116.2 1989: Mar. 98.9 99.9 101.2 102.4 103.8 105.0 106.2 107.2 108.5 109.7 110.8 111.9 99.1 100.0 101.1 102.2 103.3 104.4 105.4 106.2 107.3 108.4 109.2 110.1 98.2 99.9 101.5 103.0 105.2 106.7 108.3 109.9 111.4 113.2 115.1 116.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 111.0 111.5 112.1 118.4 119.4 121.3 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Not seasonally adjusted 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 19861987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991- 1.4 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 .9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 .9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 .8 1.0 1.0 .7 .8 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.4 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.1 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.2 1.0 .6 .8 .8 .5 .5 1.5 .8 1.6 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.7 6.3 5.5 5.2 1.3 .6 .7 .6 1.0 1.1 .8 .6 1990: 1991: Sept Dee 1992- Mar Sept. 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 6.3 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted Sept. Dec Mar.. June Sept Dec.. Mar 6.5 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 7.2 7.4 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .6 .6 1.0 .8 .7 .6 1.3 1.3 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Output * Hours of 2all persons Compensation per hour 3 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector 99.9 100.0 102.2 104.6 106.1 108.3 109.4 110.4 109.5 109.7 110.1 99.9 100.0 102.4 104.5 105.4 107.5 108.3 109.2 108.2 108.2 108.7 102.4 100.0 104.1 112.6 116.7 119.9 124.8 130.1 132.3 132.7 129.8 102.4 100.0 104.4 113.0 116.8 120.1 125.0 130.6 132.7 132.9 130.0 102.5 100.0 101.8 107.6 109.9 110.7 114.1 117.9 120.9 120.9 117.9 102.5 100.0 102.0 108.1 110.8 111.8 115.4 119.5 122.7 122.9 119.6 93.0 100.0 103.7 108.1 113.0 118.6 122.7 128.0 132.3 139.7 146.6 93.0 100.0 103.9 108.1 112.6 118.1 122.1 127.2 131.3 138.4 145.4 98.7 100.0 100.5 100.4 101.3 104.4 104.3 104.4 103.0 r 103.2 103.9 101.1 103.0 105.2 106.9 108.0 110.3 110.5 101.1 103.2 105.1 105.8 107.1 109.1 109.6 100.0 107.5 114.4 118.0 120.6 127.4 131.7 100.0 108.1 114.8 118.2 120.8 127.6 132.5 98.9 104.3 108.7 110.4 111.6 115.5 119.2 98.9 104.7 109.2 111.7 112.8 116.9 120.9 102.1 105.2 109.7 115.4 120.6 125.3 130.1 102.1 105.1 109.7 114.8 120.1 124.6 129.3 109.2 109.3 109.4 110.2 109.8 109.7 109.3 109.8 110.3 111.2 112.3 112.5 113.4 108.0 108.0 107.9 108.6 108.1 108.1 107.9 108.4 108.9 109.6 110.6 111.1 111.8 132.3 132.3 133.1 133.7 132.5 131.3 129.2 129.5 130.0 130.6 131.4 131.9 132.9 132.7 132.7 121.1 121.1 121.7 121.4 120.7 119.8 118.1 117.9 117.8 117.5 117.0 117.2 117.2 122.9 122.8 123.7 123.4 122.8 121.6 119.9 119.7 119.6 119.3 118.9 118.9 119.0 132.7 134.3 136.2 138.9 141.0 142.9 144.1 146.1 147.5 148.8 150.2 151.0 152.5 131.6 133.3 134.9 137.5 139.6 141.6 143.0 145.0 146.4 147.5 148.9 149.8 151.2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Real compensation per hour 4 Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 98.8 100.0 100.7 100.4 101.0 104.0 103.7 103.7 102.2 102.2 103.0 93.1 100.0 101.5 103.3 106.5 109.5 112.2 116.0 120.9 127.3 133.1 93.1 100.0 101.5 103.4 106.8 109.9 112.8 116.4 121.4 127.9 133.8 94.5 100.0 103.4 107.7 111.2 113.6 116.6 120.8 126.1 131.2 136.2 94.2 100.0 104.0 107.6 111.6 114.2 117.2 121.4 126.5 131.8 137.0 100.6 100.4 100.6 102.2 105.3 104.8 104.3 100.6 100.3 100.5 101.6 104.9 104.2 103.6 101.0 102.1 104.3 108.0 111.6 113.6 117.8 101.0 101.8 104.4 108.4 112.1 114.2 118.0 101.1 104.8 109.0 112.4 114.6 117.9 122.8 101.4 105.2 109.0 112.9 115.2 118.5 123.4 102.7 102.9 102.6 103.6 103.4 103.0 103.1 103.9 104.2 104.2 104.5 104.1 104.4 101.9 102.1 121.4 122.9 124.5 126.0 128.4 130.3 131.8 133.1 133.7 133.8 133.8 134.1 134.5 121.9 123.3 125.0 126.6 129.1 131.0 132.5 133.8 134.4 134.6 134.6 134.9 135.2 126.7 127.8 129.1 130.6 131.9 133.3 134.9 136.0 136.7 137.3 138.2 139.0 138.9 127.1 128.2 129.6 131.1 132.5 134.1 135.7 136.6 137.5 138.3 139.1 139.9 139.9 .1 -1.4 .2 .7 -0.7 1.2 .7 3 .6 3.0 -.2 .0 -1.5 0 .8 8.0 7.4 1.5 1.9 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.3 4.6 .0 1.0 .4 1.1 4.9 4.9 -1.2 3.8 -.7 — 1.4 -1.9 3.5 -.6 -.9 5.3 5.0 7.8 5.9 .4 3.0 1.1 -.0 .6 3.2 1.2 -.4 1.1 -1.4 1.4 .9 -.9 1.1 4.8 3.9 1.9 .2 .1 .9 1.0 8.6 7.4 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.2 4.3 5.4 4.6 4.3 4.9 5.6 5.1 8.2 5.8 4.6 4.0 2.0 .6 .1 .8 1.0 10.1 5.8 3.4 4.1 3.3 2.2 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.8 3.2 2.3 1.6 2.6 2.4 -.1 10.1 6.1 4.0 3.5 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.9 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.5 -.2 Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1982 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1981 1982 . 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 T. 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 1989: HI r.... IV r.... 1990: I r r n .r m r.... IV .... 1991: I rr n .r in r .... IV .... 1992: I T r n. TTT"* 133.5 134.0 132.7 131.5 129.4 129.7 130.2 130.7 131.5 132.0 133.0 101.6 102.5 102.4 102.1 102.3 103.1 103.4 103.3 103.5 103.3 103.6 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991r 1989: HI r.... IV.... 1990: I rr n .r m r .... IV .... 1991: I 'r n .r m .... IV.... 1992: IT II r.p m * .. 1.3 .1 2.2 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.0 .9 -.8 .3 .3 -1.6 .2 .4 2.9 — 1.4 5 0.9 .1 2.4 2.1 .8 1.9 .8 .9 -1.0 .0 .5 7 .3 -.5 2.5 -1.7 .1 -1.1 1.6 1.9 3.3 3.9 1.0 3.0 -.7 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.7 1.7 2.6 1 1.9 23 4.1 8.2 3.6 2.8 4.1 4.3 1.7 .2 -2.2 1.6 24 4.4 8.2 3.4 2.8 4.1 4.4 1.7 .1 -2.2 -.6 .1 -.3 .2 2.6 1.8 -3.6 -3.5 -6.4 .9 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.6 3.0 2.2 1.6 -3.7 -3.6 -6.1 .9 1.5 1.6 2.3 1.7 3.0 0.6 25 1.8 5.7 2.1 .7 3.1 3.3 2.6 -.0 -2.5 1.0 — .1 2.2 -1.1 -2.3 -3.0 -5.3 -.7 -.3 -1.3 -1.5 .6 .0 0.7 -2.4 2.0 6.0 2.5 .9 3.3 3.5 2.7 .1 -2.6 .4 -.1 2.8 -.9 -2.1 -3.7 -5.5 -.8 -.3 -.9 -1.3 .1 .4 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1987 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 9.4 7.6 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9 3.5 4.3 3.4 5.6 4.9 3.2 5.1 5.8 8.0 6.3 5.4 3.6 5.6 3.9 3.5 4.0 1.9 4.0 9.6 7.5 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.9 3.4 4.1 3.2 5.4 5.1 3.6 5.2 5.0 7.8 6.4 5.9 3.8 5.8 3.9 3.1 3.8 2.4 3.7 -0.8 1.3 .5 J .9 3.0 J NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data revised to incorporate the results of the 1991 Hours at Work Survey. 'Data do not reflect GDP revisions of November 25, 1992. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in October. INDE X, 1987 - 100* (RATIO SCALE] INDE X, 1987= 100' (RATIO SCALEI 120 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 115 no —S—**-~* --^| 105 r' N Illllllllll 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 Illllllllll 105 1 ! 1 1 ll f ] H 1 100 MANUFACTURING 115 DURABLE S '^ N .-*- miiliim 88 UTILITIES AND MINING UTILITIES \ 86 A 105 l\ ; V-' / Y/Xx^ >^ V iiiiiiinii I l l l l l l l l l l 1968 1989 j r~ *_ \r ^ . v V^ .— -v ., ; *i V' ]f ^Av 1990 84 *• 82 " ,/T" CONSUME GOODS ,..''~\. "V""~N \s "% s^ , MinluMi Illllllllll Illllllllll 1 1 1 1 1 11M 1 1 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) —/""•^l ~^~ •*^^L_ ^^** ^~\ \ /N/ 80 «/vv MINING I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1H S> ,— '\ PERC ENT* Illllllllll Illllllllll ^ 115 110 1 'N NONDURABLE | nm \ 1 BUSINESS EQUIPMEN r DEFENSE AND SPACE E QUIPMENT 85 120 95 _, V^"~-> \ 80 95 100 J „ -~^s* ^~-'~~ 90 — ;f-r-A ry 100 f /" r 95 ^~~ ,s~y 110 /A / 115 110 95 nniliim 105 .. A- 120 t^/~~^ r^*"* 100 120 FINAL PRODUCTS 125 3fA 78 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1m I l l l l l l l l l l 1992 1991 76 Illllllllll 1988 | , 1989 \/~v~iiiiiiinii r niiiiiiH 1991 1990 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OURCE: BOARD O GOVERNORS OF HE FEDERAL flESER VE SYSTEM 1 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1987 = 100 1981 1982 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier !07.4 80.9 75.0 75.8 81.1 80.3 79.2 81.4 84.0 84.2 83.0 79.4 78.8 72.8 74.9 80.4 79.5 79.0 81.4 83.9 83.9 82.3 78.2 -1.4 2 .2 109.0 108.6 108.1 108.2 107.8 107.1 110.1 109.6 109.5 100.7 99.6 98.8 109.4 111.0 107.9 79.8 79.3 78.7 78.7 78.2 77.7 .0 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 1.1 1.2 .9 .3 .6 107.4 108.1 108.5 109.0 109.9 109.6 110.2 109.9 109.5 109.9 105.8 107.0 107.0 107.6 109.1 108.5 109.0 109.0 108.1 108.8 109.5 109.6 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.0 111.7 111.1 111.2 111.2 97.8 98.4 97.5 99.1 99.7 98.0 100.6 98.8 97.7 98.1 106.8 106.4 107.7 108.2 107.3 106.7 109.3 109.1 111.2 110.7 78.0 78.3 78.4 78.7 79.1 78.6 79.1 78.7 78.4 78.5 77.0 77.4 77.5 77.7 78.2 77.8 78.1 77.8 77.3 77.4 108.4 108.1 107.4 1992: Jan Feb Mar 106.6 107.2 107.6 108.1 108.9 108.5 109.4 109.0 108.7 109.0 Oct p 1 Output as percent of capacity. Manufacturing 94.3 91.8 93.6 97.0 99.5 96.3 100.0 104.4 107.1 108.0 109.2 1991: Get Nov Dec Sepf Total industry 114.3 109.3 104.8 111.9 109.0 101.0 100.0 101.8 100.5 102.6 101.1 3.1 9.3 1.7 1.0 4.9 5.4 2.6 1.0 -1.9 Aue r... . Utilities Nondurable 84.5 82.5 87.0 90.8 91.5 94.9 100.0 103.6 106.4 107.8 107.9 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 July ' Mining Durable Total 77.4 72.7 76.8 88.4 91.8 93.9 100.0 107.6 110.9 111.6 107.1 85.7 81.9 84.9 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 105.4 108.1 109.2 107.1 May Capacity utilization rate, percent * Industry production indexes, 1987 = 100 Total industrial production 80.3 76.6 80.9 89.3 91.6 94.3 100.0 105.8 108.9 109.9 1.9 ^ £ r Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Intermediate products Final products Equipment Consumer goods Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total ' Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 1982 1983 . 1984 1985 . 1986 1987. 1988 1989 1990 1991 80.8 83.0 91.0 94.2 95.7 100.0 105.6 109.1 110.9 109.6 84.5 88.8 92.8 93.7 96.8 100.0 104.0 106.7 107.3 107.5 68.7 79.7 91.0 91.6 94.5 100.0 104.9 107.9 106.2 102.3 89.7 91.9 93.4 94.4 97.6 100.0 103.7 106.4 107.6 109.0 77.0 76.8 89.2 94.8 94.5 100.0 107.6 112.3 115.5 112.2 72.9 71.9 85.4 91.1 93.2 100.0 111.8 119.1 123.1 121.5 65.7 71.8 78.9 89.4 96.0 100.0 98.0 97.4 97.3 91.1 75.1 80.3 86.2 88.3 92.0 100.0 104.4 106.8 107.7 103.4 72.2 80.2 86.2 89.1 93.8 100.0 104.4 106.1 105.2 96.0 77.0 80.3 86.2 87.7 90.7 100.0 104.4 107.3 109.4 108.4 85.1 88.3 96.6 96.6 95.9 100.0 105.6 107.4 107.8 105.5 100.7 98.9 103.8 103.4 99.4 100.0 101.8 101.4 102.1 102.3 1991: Oct Nov Dec 110.6 110.6 109.9 109.7 110.0 109.1 107.5 106.0 104.6 110.3 111.1 110.3 111.9 111.4 110.9 122.3 121.8 121.4 89.1 88.8 88.1 104.1 103.9 103.8 95.4 95.9 95.0 110.1 109.4 110.0 107.4 106.6 105.8 103.1 102.2 100.4 1992: Jan Feb Mar 108.7 109.4 109.8 110.6 111.4 110.5 111.0 111.2 111.0 111.7 108.1 108.8 109.3 110.1 110.8 109.6 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.8 101.3 105.3 106.2 107.9 111.1 109.2 108.6 109.3 107.0 109.1 110.0 109.8 110.2 110.7 110.7 109.7 110.8 110.7 111.2 111.3 109.4 110.2 110.4 111.3 112.3 111.6 111.8 112.2 111.9 112.8 119.9 121.0 121.5 123.0 124.5 124.1 124.4 125.5 125.4 126.7 86.7 86.2 85.6 84.7 84.2 83.6 82.7 81.7 81.0 80.1 103.9 104.0 104.4 103.9 104.4 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.3 104.3 95.5 96.0 96.7 96.5 97.8 97.2 98.6 98.4 97.0 97.0 109.9 109.6 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.4 109.7 108.8 109.4 109.4 105.2 105.8 106.1 106.8 107.7 107.6 109.0 108.0 107.7 107.7 100.4 100.5 100.1 101.3 101.3 100.6 102.9 101.1 101.8 101.3 May .... July r... . Aug ' Sept '... Oct ".. 1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total Iron and steel Transportation equipment Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 83.2 91.0 102.4 101.8 93.8 100.0 110.3 109.2 108.4 99.5 86.2 96.1 105.9 104.5 90.8 100.0 113.8 109.3 109.9 98.0 83.2 85.5 93.3 94.5 93.8 100.0 106.2 107.2 105.9 100.4 63.9 64.3 80.8 86.8 90.4 100.0 113.8 121.8 126.5 123.5 75.9 80.3 94.1 93.1 94.3 100.0 106.5 109.5 111.4 110.1 64.8 72.7 83.1 91.8 96.9 100.0 105.0 107.2 105.5 98.6 58.8 74.5 90.6 99.0 98.5 100.0 105.5 104.9 96.8 90.4 67.3 79.9 86.0 88.0 95.1 100.0 104.6 103.0 101.6 94.2 90.1 93.8 95.7 92.6 96.3 100.0 102.2 104.3 98.8 96.2 75.2 79.0 84.5 87.6 90.7 100.0 103.6 108.5 111.9 112.3 81.8 87.5 91.4 91.4 94.6 100.0 105.4 108.5 110.3 110.9 87.7 90.1 92.1 94.9 97.4 100.0 102.8 105.5 107.6 108.6 1991: Oct Nov Dec 102.6 103.5 101.3 102.4 105.6 101.7 101.9 101.8 101.2 123.5 122.8 121.9 109.8 110.7 110.6 102.4 99.7 98.0 100.4 95.9 94.6 93.8 96.4 95.2 98.7 98.8 99.0 114.4 114.2 114.5 113.5 113.0 112.6 109.4 110.1 109.6 1992: Jan Feb Mar. Apr May .... 102.5 102.7 101.4 100.9 102.0 102.1 105.6 104.3 101.9 102.8 105.0 103.7 102.5 100.9 102.2 101.8 106.4 104.4 103.0 103.5 99.7 100.5 100.0 100.6 102.2 102.2 102.6 102.1 100.8 101.0 121.4 121.9 122.9 124.1 126.7 126.4 127.8 129.2 129.5 130.7 110.0 110.7 110.9 111.0 112.3 112.2 112.6 113.0 111.9 112.1 93.8 96.8 96.5 98.0 99.6 98.2 96.7 96.8 94.7 96.4 87.1 93.8 94.2 98.5 102.7 100.4 97.7 99.4 97.0 101.2 97.4 98.8 99.2 97.2 97.4 95.4 99.8 98.7 97.6 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.8 98.0 99.0 98.1 99.4 97.6 97.6 97.4 114.8 114.4 113.8 113.7 113.4 113.0 112.3 112.4 112.9 112.7 112.7 113.4 114.8 115.8 117.0 117.5 118.0 117.7 117.5 117.8 109.2 109.6 110.2 109.6 109.3 109.0 109.8 110.3 110.0 110.3 July '... Sept '. Oct ".... Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total New housing units Total1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1987=:00) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 ... . 294.9 348.8 377.4 407.7 419.4 . .. 432.3 443.4 442.1 401.0 . .. 231.5 278.6 299.5 323.1 328.7 337.5 345.3 334.2 290.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 196.6 182.9 157.8 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 57.7 74.0 89.8 84.4 84.0 88.0 94.3 96.4 77.0 48.2 50.8 51.3 51.6 50.1 51.5 54.5 54.9 55.8 63.5 70.2 77.8 84.6 90.6 94.8 98.1 107.9 110.2 75 83 91 96 100 101 105 95 90 112.4 114.4 112.9 111.4 r 91 r Annual rates Annual rates 1991: Sept 406.0 293.6 Oct Nov Dec 1992- Jan Feb Mar 406.1 401.2 291.7 May ,.' . July J ' . r . . 398.7 288.3 287.4 407.1 411.8 421.5 301.1 427.6 428.0 426.7 427.7 417.6 Sepf 425.0 429.3 Ocf. 292.5 294.8 309.8 307.0 312.2 307.9 300.3 306.1 309.9 164.2 164.7 164.5 164.1 169.5 169.8 172.7 182.6 182.9 184.6 182.9 181.3 183.2 187.4 1 Includes 2 Includes 3 residential improvements, not shown separately. hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 973 961 783 545 72.9 70.1 67.4 67.3 65.8 66.7 69.1 65.9 63.6 66.8 63.2 57.9 61.2 60.9 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.3 122.0 123.3 125.9 128.8 128.1 128.7 127.1 129.2 131.8 135.1 56.5 56.9 56.4 56.0 57.2 58.3 59.4 61.2 60.5 60.7 61.8 61.0 61.7 61.7 97 81 r 99 r 97 r !01 98 98 r 88 r 94 93 92 '93 104 114.6 117.0 120.4 117.8 121.0 114.5 119.8 117.3 118.9 119.4 408 625 474 479 472 563 497 499 423 525 482 515 438 575 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1982 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989.. 1990 1991 1 unit 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 2-4 units 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 55.2 37.5 35.6 5 or more units 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 317.6 260.4 137.9 Units authorized 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 1,338.4 1,110.8 948.8 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end1 of period Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) z 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 1,422.8 1,308.0 1,090.8 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 650 534 509 253 301 353 346 357 366 368 365 321 283 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.4 1,193 1,073 1,021 1,021 1,043 1,097 1,127 1,067 1,204 1,184 499 526 578 578 667 627 555 546 554 583 613 623 617 292 289 286 283 281 269 277 274 272 272 271 268 267 7.6 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1991: Sept Oct Nov Dec.... 1992- Jan Feb Mar May July .. Sept ' Oct" 1 1,020 1,085 1,085 1,118 1,180 1,257 1,340 1,086 1,196 1,147 1,100 1,233 1,243 1,229 864 887 907 972 989 1,109 1,068 933 1,019 999 956 1,042 1,065 1,072 28 49 33 46 28 24 53 27 33 40 25 32 29 29 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1989 not comparable with earlier data. 2 128 149 145 100 163 124 219 126 144 108 119 159 149 128 974 994 979 1,073 1,106 1,146 1,094 1,058 1,054 1,032 1,080 1,076 1,125 1,139 r l,229 1,140 1,121 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In September, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.5 percent and inventories rose $0.4 billion. In October, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.9 percent, following a rise of 0.5 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 300 900 250 800 -^ \ 700 ^^ MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 200 600 ^^^-^' 500 'A—' -~- f 150 s M, NUFACTURIb\G AN D TRADE SAlES RETAIL SALES 400 100 300 RATIO * 1.80 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.70 „ 1.60 200 1.50 1988 1.30 1989 1991 1990 ^-"^ i v ^\ -~3 '\>^O' SO. ^/-^ ^ MANUFAC URING I 1I1M 1 1988 1992 \ xx-^V' P^ r \ 1.40 ill n l m i i - ;y-'\.. 1989 1990 1991 |||M| 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory-sales ratio * Retail Wholesale Inventories 3 Sales 2 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade ' 61,316 68,856 79,074 88,315 89,983 105,481 111,892 120,138 119,331 117,454 116,206 117,293 116,873 117,454 115,918 117,259 119,827 122,884 122,694 123,198 124,421 124,348 124,237 73,312 78,977 88,738 93,566 96,527 102,355 107,382 117,461 120,886 125,708 122,274 123,453 124,006 125,708 125,068 124,679 124,461 125,108 124,655 125,615 126,961 125,954 127,486 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.53 1.53 1.55 1.53 1.52 1.53 1.56 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.52 1.50 1.49 1.51 1.49 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1991: Sepf Oct Nov Dec 1992- Jan Feb Mar Apr May . June July r Aue Sept" Oct p 348,771 370,501 411,427 423,940 431,786 459,107 496,334 522,344 540,788 533,838 538,952 r 541,186 540,382 531,919 536,977 544,017 545,424 547,081 546,145 554,363 559,701 552,480 560,553 575,486 591,858 651,527 665,837 664,654 711,745 767,387 813,018 835,985 828,184 822,418 824,672 825,505 828,184 824,150 824,609 826,204 828,630 828,032 831,872 835,373 836,972 837,405 96,357 100,440 113,502 114,816 116,326 124,340 135,254 144,039 149,204 145,135 146,045 145,766 145,310 144,909 145,922 146,366 146,867 146,947 145,555 148,129 151,701 150,467 152,802 89,062 129,024 97,514 131,663 144,223 107,243 149,155 114,586 155,445 120,803 165,814 128,442 180,717 137,539 188,635 145,580 196,917 152,126 198,979 153,562 194,386 154,071 195,371 r 154,508 196,347 154,092 198,979 154,280 198,730 157,808 199,416 159,753 198,677 157,873 198,432 158,385 197,397 159,111 200,205 158,982 200,500 160,784 201,074 160,999 201,004 ' 161,835 163,308 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. 2 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 27,966 61,097 32,571 64,943 37,873 69,369 41,510 73,075 45,057 75,746 47,989 80,453 52,219 85,320 54,329 91,252 55,065 97,061 99,149 54,413 99,037 55,034 T r 55,404 99,104 54,722 99,370 55,406 98,874 56,919 100,889 57,961 101,792 57,122 100,751 57,442 100,943 57,643 101,468 57,686 101,296 58,580 102,204 58,254 102,745 r 58,894 ' 102,941 59,917 103,391 3 4 134,628 147,833 167,812 181,881 186,510 207,836 219,274 237,599 240,217 243,162 238,480 240,746 240,879 243,162 240,986 241,938 244,288 247,992 247,349 248,813 251,382 250,302 251,723 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 20 1.49 .44 .49 .52 .56 .55 .55 .59 .57 .55 .55 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.53 1.51 1.55 1.57 1.55 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.56 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers' shipments and new orders rose, while inventories and unfilled orders fell. In October, according to advance data, manufacturers' durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) SHIPMENTS 240 . 440 ~^~ ' 200 TOTAL DUP/ iBLE 160 - INVENTO 360 == GOODS \ TOTA 280 \ 120 ~S * —' " •^ ~" '_ — X \ NON 3URABLE ^ •— . — . " .-- ^.*.-— — * \ 200 DURABLE GOODS GO 3DS 160 80 — —— - 120 60 mll| | imihim lllllhllll NC3NDURABLE ||m| BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 NEW ORDERS ^~ f 60 ^^^ — ~*^ \ 200 TOTAL DURA !LE GOODS 160 3OODS 80 | M l l l l 1 1! II RATIO* '•-•',- '' u -^---*i. 120 ^• — J "^ V" 2.20 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO •**, ->/-/- ~r- 2.00 \ 1.80 NONE3URABLE GO DOS 1.60 1.40 I l l l l l l l Ml i i i i i h i i i i M i l ll II Ml 1988 1989 I I I ! i l l II II 1990 1991 I 1 1 1 1 1 If 1 I E 1992 1.20 1989 1988 1991 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' new orders 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, non-defense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers' inventoryshipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 163,351 172,547 190,682 194,538 194,657 206,326 223,541 232,724 239,459 235,142 79,212 85,481 97,940 101,279 103,238 108,128 117,993 121,703 122,387 118,548 84,139 87,066 92,742 93,259 91,419 98,198 105,549 111,022 117,072 116,593 311,834 312,362 339,492 334,801 322,699 338,095 367,396 386,784 398,851 386,043 200,423 199,831 221,304 218,211 212,027 220,786 241,356 255,911 259,746 246,966 111,411 112,531 118,188 116,590 110,672 117,309 126,040 130,873 139,105 139,077 162,140 175,451 192,879 195,706 195,204 209,389 227,026 235,905 240,417 233,774 78,064 88,140 100,164 102,356 103,647 110,809 121,445 124,906 123,324 117,063 19,213 19,624 23,669 24,545 23,983 26,095 30,729 32,725 32,227 29,862 84,077 87,311 92,715 93,351 91,557 98,579 105,581 110,999 117,093 116,712 311,889 347,272 373,524 387,087 393,403 430,287 471,942 510,112 521,811 505,631 1.95 1.78 1.73 1,73 1.68 1.59 1.58 1.64 1.65 1.67 1991: Sept Oct Nov Dec 238,836 240,912 240,980 232,730 121,958 122,771 122,814 116,869 116,878 118,141 118,166 115,861 389,552 388,555 388,279 386,043 251,319 249,738 249,202 246,966 138,233 138,817 139,077 139,077 233,703 238,542 ' 238,679 ' 229,925 116,528 120,227 ' 120,343 r l!3,921 28,762 ' 29,453 r 33,066 * 26,969 117,175 118,315 118,336 116,004 513,107 510,737 508,436 505,631 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.66 1992: 233,247 237,898 240,684 241,749 241,479 247,252 247,216 241,014 245,916 118,698 121,991 123,503 123,483 122,344 125,831 124,789 123,364 r 125,293 124,570 114,549 115,907 117,181 118,266 119,135 121,421 122,427 117,650 120,623 384,434 383,255 383,239 382,206 383,286 382,854 383,491 385,596 384,678 245,754 244,395 243,787 242,512 242,447 241,891 241,258 242,036 240,791 138,680 138,860 139,452 139,694 140,839 140,963 142,233 143,560 143,887 232,467 233,388 237,606 240,771 238,696 244,542 242,307 236,880 239,938 118,011 117,750 120,187 122,393 119,808 123,164 119,861 119,376 r 119,700 124,421 30,093 29,463 32,163 29,901 30,469 30,953 29,296 28,153 r 30,540 31,306 114,456 115,638 117,419 118,378 118,888 121,378 122,446 117,504 120,238 504,851 500,341 497,263 496,285 493,502 490,792 485,883 481,749 475,771 1.65 1.61 1.59 1.58 1.59 1.55 1.55 1.60 1.56 1982 Jan Feb Mar May July Sent" Get" 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally2 adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In October, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.1 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.2 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.2 percent. INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINISHED GOODS PRICES 130 130 CONSUMER FOODS 120 120 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT 110 110 TOTAL 100 100 • CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS I I I I I I I I I I I I i I i i I i i i i i I I I I I I I I I II i I i I I I I i t i i I i I I I I i I i I i i i i i i 1 i i i i I 1987 1989 1986 1988 1984 1985 90 I I I I I I I I I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1990 1991 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 90 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods 1986 1987.... 1988 1989 1990 1991 1991- Oct Nov Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r... July Aue Sept Oct 1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 113.6 119.2 121.7 122.1 122.2 122.1 121.9 122.2 122.4 122.8 123.1 123.4 123.4 123.5 123.9 124.0 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 118.7 124.4 124.2 123.3 123.1 123.0 122.5 123.7 123.1 122.7 122.5 122.8 122.6 123.4 123.9 124.0 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 120.9 121.7 121.9 121.7 121.6 121.7 122.2 122.7 123.2 123.5 123.6 c 123.4 c 123.8 123.9 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.8 111.5 115.0 116.1 116.2 115.8 114.9 115.2 115.6 116.4 117.5 118.4 118.1 117.7 118.4 119.3 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 118.8 122.9 126.7 127.3 127.5 127.7 128.3 128.4 128.8 129.1 129.2 129.1 129.3 129.4 129.4 129.2 Total Total 1982 1983 . . . . 1984 1985 Nondurable Capital equipment Consumer goods 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 108.9 115.3 118.7 119.6 119.8 119.5 119.0 119.2 119.6 120.2 120.9 121.4 121.4 c 121.2 c 121.6 121.9 Durable 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 117.6 120.4 123.9 124.4 124.6 124.7 125.4 125.2 125.8 125.9 125.8 125.4 125.9 126.2 126.1 125.1 Total finished consumer goods 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 112.1 118.2 120.5 120.8 120.9 120.7 120.2 120.6 120.8 121.1 121.6 122.0 121.9 122.0 122.5 122.7 Crude materials Total Foods and feeds * Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 112.0 114.5 114.4 114.0 114.0 113.9 113.2 113.7 113.8 114.0 114.5 115.3 115.2 115.2 115.4 115.3 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.8 113.3 111.1 111.7 112.0 111.9 110.8 112.1 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.8 109.5 109.3 110.2 109.5 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.2 114.1 114.0 113.3 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.6 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.6 115.6 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 103.1 108.9 101.2 100.5 100.4 98.3 97.3 99.0 97.3 98.3 100.0 101.7 101.1 101.0 102.6 102.5 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 111.2 113.1 105.5 104.2 103.5 102.9 104.8 106.9 105.8 104.5 105.6 106.3 104.4 104.0 104.6 105.2 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 94.2 94.5 91.6 88.8 90.2 88.1 90.5 92.6 94.8 95.1 95.3 97.4 96.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 150 INDEX, 1982-84 . 100 (RATIO SCALEI 150 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CONSUMER PRICES—AU ITEMS J ] 11JjIJll COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items l Transportation Housing Shelter Period Rel imp.3... 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1991: Oct Nov . . Dec 1992: Feb Mar Apr May T " July .... Sept Oct Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted 1000 96.5 996 103.9 1076 109.6 1136 118.3 124.0 130.7 1362 Food Total > Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 8.0 19.7 16.0 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 125.1 132.4 136.3 41.5 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 123.0 128.5 133.6 27.9 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 132.8 140.0 146.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 138.9 146.7 155.6 Maintenance and repairs (NSA) Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy 7.3 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 111.6 115.3 6.1 17.0 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 137.3 144.6 150.2 0.2 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 118.0 122.2 126.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.7 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 114.1 120.5 123.8 4.1 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 119.2 121.0 125.3 3.3 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 88.5 101.2 99.4 6.7 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 149.3 162.8 177.0 7.4 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 94.3 102.1 102.5 76.6 95.8 99.6 104.6 109.1 113.5 118.2 123.4 129.0 135.5 142.1 137.4 137.8 137.9 137.4 137.9 138.2 136.4 137.0 137.4 134.6 135.0 135.4 147.4 147.9 148.4 156.3 156.6 157.3 151.6 152.1 152.7 126.6 127.6 128.1 116.2 116.8 116.8 130.3 131.1 129.6 124.0 124.5 124.8 126.2 126.3 126.5 97.3 98.2 98.5 181.1 182.0 183.3 101.4 102.2 102.3 143.9 144.4 144.7 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.8 138.3 138.7 139.4 139.7 139.9 140.3 140.5 140.9 141.2 141.8 136.8 137.2 137.9 137.8 137.3 137.5 137.3 138.5 139.1 139.1 135.7 136.0 136.5 136.7 136.9 137.5 137.6 137.8 137.9 138.5 149.1 149.5 150.0 150.2 150.4 151.1 151.1 151.4 151.4 152.2 158.4 158.9 158.5 158.9 159.5 160.4 160.2 160.5 161.3 162.0 153.2 153.6 154.5 154.6 154.7 155.3 155.5 155.7 155.5 156.4 128.0 128.3 128.4 128.0 128.1 128.5 128.8 128.1 128.5 129.4 116.4 115.9 116.4 116.9 117.1 117.5 117.9 118.5 118.6 119.0 130.0 131.9 132.7 131.8 132.3 132.0 131.8 131.8 132.1 132.5 124.4 124.2 125.1 125.7 126.1 126.7 127.3 127.2 127.2 128.0 126.6 126.7 127.2 127.8 128.0 128.5 128.6 129.1 129.6 129.3 96.3 95.7 96.6 96.8 97.9 101.0 101.7 100.4 99.8 100.4 184.5 186.0 187.0 188.0 189.0 189.8 190.8 191.6 192.6 193.8 100.8 99.9 100.5 100.9 101.5 103.5 103.8 103.6 103.6 104.1 145.1 145.7 146.4 146.8 147.1 147.4 147.7 148.0 148.3 149.0 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels — gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc. — and also included through 1982, 3 Relative importance, December 1991. otor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total Finished goods Pood! Capital equipment Excluding foods Total finished Excluding foods Foods goods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 -.2 5.7 5.2 2.6 -1.5 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 -.1 1982 1983 . .. 4.2 9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 5.3 8.7 .7 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 — 1.4 2.1 2.5 5.2 4.9 2.1 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.5 Change, month to month 1991- Oct Nov Dec 1992- Jan Feb Mar May July ' Sept ' Oct 0.2 .1 -.1 0 2 — .1 0.5 .2 -.3 0.2 .2 .2 3.0 2.3 1.0 -2.2 10 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 0 .1 .3 .1 4 1.0 5 -.3 2 .2 2 .7 .4 .1 — .4 .2 .3 .5 .6 .4 0 '-.2 c .3 .2 .5 .1 .3 .2 .1 -.1 .2 .1 0 -.2 7 -2.6 2.0 .3 .7 38 -1.0 3 3.0 3.6 4.6 -1.0 0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 — .1 -.5 6.6 5.2 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 -3.2 -3.0 -2.7 3.3 2.9 2.9 1.8 1.4 1.6 1 20 -2.0 .3 4.1 5.8 6.2 4.1 '1.0 e ."J 1.7 3.2 2.9 3.5 2.5 2.5 .9 .6 .6 .9 -.3 .2 .2 .0 .1 .5 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.0 -2.4 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.1 C 3A C 3A 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.6 .9 .2 — .4 .6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 .5 -.3 -1.0 -1.0 -.3 .2 5 1.3 2.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items l Food Total > Total ' Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care All items Energy2 food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1982 1983 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.1 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 3.9 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 6.7 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 3.7 0.3 .3 .3 0.3 .3 .3 0.3 .2 .4 0.3 .3 .4 .2 .2 .4 .1 .1 .4 .1 .1 .1 .4 .5 .3 .3 .1 .1 .5 0 .2 0 .5 .7 .3 -.3 .3 .4 .6 — .1 .2 .5 .4 .3 .3 .6 .1 .1 .4 .1 .1 — .1 .6 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 56 1.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 2.9 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 1.0 5.1 3.4 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 59 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 -1.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 1.3 5 .2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.1 18.1 -7.4 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 06 .9 .3 0.6 .5 .7 0 .8 .1 0.2 .3 .2 -2.2 -.6 .9 .2 1.1 3.2 .7 .7 .8 .5 .5 .5 .4 .5 .4 .5 .6 -1.5 -.9 .6 .4 .6 2.0 .3 2 0 .5 .3 .4 .5 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .5 1.5 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.5 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 1.8 18.7 2.1 -2.1 2.3 6.8 1.4 36.5 3.3 -16.0 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 Change, month to month 1991: 1992: Oct Nov Dee Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 0.2 .4 2 .1 .3 .5 .2 .1 .3 .1 .3 .2 .4 1 2 -0.1 .4 .3 — .4 .3 .5 -.1 — .4 .1 -1 .9 .4 0 0.4 .5 0 3 A A A .2 .3 .3 .5 .1 .3 0.2 .6 -1.1 .3 1.5 .6 -.7 .4 -.2 -.2 0 .2 .3 Includes items not shown s parately. Household fuels—gas (pipt I), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 24 -0.2 .4 .2 3 -.2 .7 .5 .3 .5 .5 -.1 0 .6 -0.1 .1 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .2 .4 .1 .4 .4 2 -.6 .6 3.6 2.9 3.5 2.6 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3.6 3.9 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.3 3.5 4.1 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.9 2.6 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in November fell 1.4 percent from their October level. Prices paid by farmers in October were unchanged from their July level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 . 100 (RATIO SCALE] 200 , 180 180 . ^-'-"~ ^— _^ 160 T~\ PRICES PAID 140 — /xx\ J N_ "N/- 120 ^-A 160 s^\ ~^I ^ N. /~*~ / ^—-^ 140 120 \ PRICES RECEIVE D 100 100 80 I IIfi1 111111 1 1 1 1 11 i ii i i 1 l iiii III 1 l llll1 1 1 M 1111 1 11 l l l 1 l 1 1111 80 RA TIOJ/ 140 120 RATI DJ/ 140 120 - RATIO "" 100 100 - / 80 60 " - —-^ 1 1 1I I 1 I I I I I 1984 1 ~-*^_^hull ' " 1 t 1 M 1 1 1 1 II 1 I I II I I I 1 1 1 1 i M i i 1 l i i ii l llll1lllll 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1985 r1 1 1 1 1 1"""• 11111 — 80 ---^ 60 l l l l l 11 1 111 1991 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 — 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Ratio 2 Production items 1982 1983 1984 .. 1985 1986 ... . 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 133 135 142 128 123 127 138 147 149 146 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 134 127 130 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 160 170 161 159 161 164 162 159 162 170 178 184 189 158 159 161 156 150 152 160 167 172 175 153 152 155 151 144 148 157 165 171 173 84 84 87 79 77 78 81 83 81 77 1991: Nov Dec 139 137 124 120 153 153 (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) 74 72 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July . 138 142 143 141 141 140 138 139 138 r !39 137 123 128 131 126 123 122 117 117 117 r l!6 115 152 156 155 155 157 157 158 160 158 r !60 157 189 (3) (3) 191 (3) (3) 192 (3) (3) 192 (3) 174 (3) (3) 175 (3) (3) 176 (3) (3) 176 (3) 171 (3) (3) 174 (3) (3) C 175 (3) (3) 174 (3) 73 75 76 74 74 73 72 72 72 72 71 Aug Sept Oct Nov 1 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. 2 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES M2 and M3 rose again in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE} 4,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] 4,800 4,400 4,400 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 -v 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: M2 MS Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MIHHTF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances MS plus other liquid assets 2,440.6 2,693.0 2,987.4 3,203.2 3,494.3 3,681.1 3,923.1 4,059.8 4,114.6 4,171.0 2,850.4 3,154.3 3,528.8 3,830.4 4,134.3 4,339.3 4,677.1 4,890.6 4,965.2 4,988.1 4,700.2 5,244.6 6,008.2 6,875.3 7,795.2 8,546.2 9,326.3 10,076.7 10,751.3 11,200.4 8.7 9.9 6.0 12.3 16.8 3.5 4.9 .9 4.0 8.7 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.2 9.4 3.5 5.5 5.1 3.5 3.0 9.3 10.3 10.9 7.2 9.1 5.3 6.6 3.5 1.3 1.4 9.3 11.6 14.6 14.4 13.4 9.6 9.1 8.0 6.7 4.2 4,972.6 4,976.3 4,989.4 4,988.1 11,093.6 11,131.0 11,171.3 11,200.4 7.1 9.1 9.5 9.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 -.6 5 -.2 .2 4.2 4.5 4.2 3.8 4,980.6 5,009.1 5,019.9 r 5,012.7 5,002.5 5,013.9 5,006.1 5,023.9 "5,043.3 11,234.5 11,282.8 11,340.0 11,388.8 11,430.8 11,481.7 11,526.0 11,569.0 "11,604.0 11.7 14.9 15.4 14.1 14.1 11.9 11.0 9.0 10.6 13.7 2.3 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.4 1.4 .9 2 .4 1.4 .8 2.0 r 1.9 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.1 4.7 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 474.6 521.4 552.5 620.2 724.6 750.0 786.9 794.1 826.1 898.1 1991: Sept Oct Nov Dec 872.0 880.9 891.4 898.1 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 910.4 931.0 939.0 942.8 954.3 951.7 960.5 973.1 988.6 1,007.2 July '. Aue r Sept ' Oct". 1,951.9 2,186.1 2,374.3 2,569.4 2,811.1 2,910.8 3,071.1 3,227.3 3,339.0 ' 3,439.8 3,411.9 3,417.9 3,431.6 r 3,439.8 r r 4,152.8 ' 4, 159.0 4,166.9 4,171.0 '3,447.5 r 3,474.4 r 3,475.7 ' 3,47 1.5 3,473.0 3,464.4 3,462.2 3,471.6 3,481.9 3,496.5 4,173.7 4,198.7 4,191.8 r 4,179.4 4,178.7 4,166.9 4,163.0 4,175.2 4,181.4 4,183.3 r 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 Percent, change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml L r Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) l Ml NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 r r MS i.o r .6 — .2 -.5 -.5 .2 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Overnight repurchase agreeOther ments check(RPs), able net, deposplus its over(OCDs) night Eurodollars i Money market mutual fund balances 2 General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small denomination time deposits 3 Large Term denom- repurination chase time agreedepos- ments 3 its (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA NSA 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 19871988: 19891990: 19911991: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Oct Nov Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar May , 3 July Sept Oct p 132.5 234.0 103.7 146.2 238.5 131.8 156.1 243.9 147.2 167.9 266.7 179.7 180.8 302.0 235.3 197.0 286.8 259.3 212.3 286.5 280.6 222.6 279.0 285.1 246.8 277.1 293.9 267.3 289.5 333.2 262.9 280.6 320.6 324.5 264.8 283.8 266.0 287.6 329.7 333.2 267.3 289.5 269.4 293.9 339.0 271.6 305.1 346.3 271.8 309.6 349.5 273.6 311.2 350.0 274.7 315.1 356.4 276.2 311.0 356.7 278.9 315.6 ' 358.2 282.3 ' 320.6 r362.2 286.4 327.8 * 366.1 288.4 336.3 373.9 39.9 55.6 60.6 73.5 82.3 84.1 83.2 77.6 74.7 r 76.2 r 66.8 r 70.0 r 73.7 '76.2 "11.1 r 77.6 r 74.6 r 72.6 r 69.2 r 72.0 r 72.4 r 75.8 r 74.1 75.0 184.5 51.1 138.3 42.7 167.1 63.7 176.1 65.8 208.0 86.1 221.7 92.1 241.9 91.0 316.3 107.2 348.9 133.7 360.5 179.1 359.9 162.6 359.3 168.2 359.5 173.6 360.5 179.1 358.6 182.4 361.7 188.2 358.3 185.3 ' 355.9 189.2 ' 356.7 194.8 r 355.5 199.7 r 352.4 207.7 ' 350.7 217.2 ' 345.7 217.2 348.8 205.4 1 Includes continuing contract RPs. Data prior to 1983 are not seasonally adjusted. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 2 3 398.5 684.0 704.2 814.4 940.1 937.0 926.2 891.2 920.7 1,042.6 1,002.4 1,015.0 1,028.7 1,042.6 1,061.2 1,083.9 1,098.0 1,111.2 1,122.4 1,127.0 ' 1,134.4 r l, 145.6 '1,159.5 1,171.3 847.2 323.3 33.4 324.8 780.8 49.9 415.6 884.9 57.6 436.1 881.7 62.4 439.5 854.8 80.6 489.1 917.5 106.0 541.2 121.8 1,032.9 559.3 1,148.5 99.1 494.9 1,168.7 89.6 r 437.1 1,063.0 70.5 1,111.0 458.5 76.5 1,095.2 450.0 75.2 1,079.2 442.3 73.3 437.1 r70.5 1,063.0 427.9 r70.5 1,042.9 420.7 r71.7 1,019.8 413.0 r73.3 1,002.8 405.7 r 72.5 985.3 968.7 400.9 r73.4 956.2 395.3 r73.6 ' 942.3 388.5 r72.5 ' 927.4 384.6 '73.3 r 914.2 ' 380.0 r75.1 373.2 897.3 77.3 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.5 83.8 91.0 105.7 79.5 68.7 57.2 61.5 62.8 61.5 57.2 55.3 55.9 57.9 55.0 52.8 r 51.8 r 50.3 r 49.3 r 46.9 46.6 Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.5 91.8 100.6 109.4 117.5 126.0 137.9 135.2 136.1 137.1 137.9 138.9 140.1 141.2 142.4 143.5 144.6 145.9 147.5 "149.5 183.6 211.9 260.9 298.2 279.8 252.8 268.8 324.4 331.3 r 316.1 321.2 319.7 322.9 r 316.1 r 310.0 r 319.9 r 327.7 * 327.6 r 328.9 r 333.3 r 325.2 r 327.8 "326.4 Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.1 44.3 39.8 40.1 34.0 23.3 25.8 25.3 24.5 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.2 21.6 22.0 22.0 21.7 21.0 "21.5 113.7 133.2 160.8 207.5 231.2 260.5 336.1 348.6 359.3 339.7 337.7 336.2 337.9 339.7 334.8 327.5 337.0 341.7 329.4 347.1 350.3 352.4 "364.4 NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures '; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1991: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar May , ' July Sept Oct » 1 23,600 25,367 26,878 31,485 39,005 38,934 40,468 40,558 41,832 45,601 44,138 44,785 45,601 46,186 47,746 48,476 49,001 49,494 49,234 49,489 50,322 51,346 53,142 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Nonborrowed 22,966 24,593 23,692 30,167 38,179 38,157 38,752 40,293 41,506 45,409 43,877 44,677 45,409 45,953 47,668 48,385 48,911 49,339 49,005 49,205 50,071 51,058 53,000 Nonborrowed plus extended credit 23,152 24,595 26,296 30,666 38,482 38,640 39,996 40,313 41,529 45,410 43,889 44,678 45,410 45,954 47,670 48,386 48,913 49,339 49,005 49,205 50,071 51,058 53,000 Required 23,100 24,806 26,023 30,448 37,635 37,888 39,420 39,636 40,167 44,623 43,055 43,893 44,623 45,183 46,681 47,447 47,863 48,494 48,321 48,524 49,387 50,352 52,069 Monetary base 160,127 175,467 187,248 203,601 223,732 239,967 256,973 267,772 293,287 317,254 313,281 315,332 317,254 319,695 323,411 324,512 326,500 328,584 329,642 332,255 336,865 ' 341,545 345,627 Total 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 265 326 192 261 108 192 233 77 91 90 155 229 284 251 287 143 Seasonal 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 84 76 38 211 86 38 17 22 32 47 98 149 203 223 193 114 Extended credit 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 20 23 1 12 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.2 percent in October; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.1 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 LOANS AND LEASES 1,200 1,200 800 800 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 400 400 OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 120 i i ii iIItIIt 1984 1 1 I I I II I l II i I 1 I 1 I M 1 M i I M I I M I I II I I I I I i M M 1987 1988 i i i ii I i il ll 1989 M M I I I I I II 120 I I 1 i I I M I II 1991 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted J] All commercial banks Loans and leases Period Total securities 2 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1991: Dec 1,400.4 1,552.2 Dec 1,722.2 Dec Dec 1,909.5 2,093.2 Dec 2,238.5 Dec Dec 2,422.8 Dec 2,590.8 Dec 2,730.8 r Dec 2,838.7 Get 2,805.5 r Nov 2,822.7 r Dec 2,838.7 r 1992: Jan .... 2,852.0 Feb r .... 2,854.8 Mar r.... 2,863.1 Apr r.... 2,877.5 May T.... 2,877.6 June r... 2,883.7 July r.... 2,884.3 Aug '.... 2,897.0 Sept r... 2,913.0 Get 2,924.4 U.S. Government securities 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.8 310.0 335.8 363.5 398.2 454.1 562.6 538.7 550.8 562.6 566.2 571.2 579.5 592.3 601.7 611.6 619.4 634.0 638.7 645.7 Other securities Total 2 164.8 1,033.9 169.1 1,123.9 1,321.1 140.9 179.0 1,459.8 1,589.4 193.9 193.6 1,709.1 192.4 1,866.9 181.7 2,010.9 177.9 2,098.8 r r 179.4 2,096.6 2,088.9 177.9 2,093.2 178.8 ' 179.4 r2,096.6 179.7 2,106.1 180.5 2,103.1 178.1 2,105.5 2,106.7 178.5 177.1 2,098.8 175.6 2,096.5 177.6 2,087.3 177.7 2.085.2 178.0 2,096.3 178.9 2,099.8 N nn on- Commercial and industrial Eeal estate Individual Security 392.5 414.2 473.1 500.2 537.0 567.1 606.8 640.2 643.2 r 618.0 622.6 621.7 r 618.0 617.3 613.2 610.9 609.2 607.3 604.7 602.8 600.5 602.7 603.2 299.9 331.0 376.2 425.8 494.0 586.9 670.1 759.5 843.3 873.1 869.8 871.9 873.1 873.5 877.5 879.4 881.4 882.6 881.3 879.2 878.7 882.8 886.9 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.7 315.3 328.3 354.5 374.8 379.6 363.5 364.2 363.1 363.5 363.1 363.6 362.2 360.7 358.9 359.1 358.6 357.3 356.6 355.4 25.3 28.0 34.4 43.0 40.3 34.8 41.2 41.5 44.7 54.5 51.1 53.5 54.5 59.4 57.1 60.4 64.9 61.6 63.9 60.7 62.5 66.2 65.8 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 Konl, DanK financial institutions 31.2 30.4 31.3 32.4 35.0 32.0 32.3 34.3 35.7 40.6 37.2 37.8 40.6 40.8 42.6 43.7 42.7 43.0 41.9 39.9 40.9 43.8 44.2 Agricultural otate artri ana political subdivisions Foreign banks Foreign official institutions 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.5 29.4 28.7 29.8 32.0 34.0 34.1 33.8 34.0 33.7 33.5 34.3 34.4 34.3 34.8 34.8 35.3 35.3 35.0 0.0 .0 46.0 56.7 58.5 52.4 45.1 40.0 33.9 29.1 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.6 14.7 13.4 11.6 9.9 10.3 7.8 7.7 8.2 7.5 7.4 6.6 6.9 7.4 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.5 7.8 7.0 7.9 7.2 5.9 9.4 8.4 6.3 6.3 5.7 5.0 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Lease financing receivables 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 22.4 24.6 29.3 31.8 32.8 31.7 31.6 31.5 31.7 31.5 31.6 31.5 31.6 31.7 32.0 31.0 30.7 30.8 30.6 Other 26.8 31.8 30.2 35.6 38.8 40.1 46.2 47.1 43.3 42.4 39.5 41.1 42.4 49.2 47.1 46.5 45.6 43.3 42.6 44.0 44.3 42.1 43.8 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Capital Credit market funds Internal 1 Total Total Securities and mortgages Other 2 Loans and short-term paper Total tares 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 316.6 423.3 493.1 465.8 515.9 540.7 588.7 532.2 511.4 444.0 247.5 292.3 336.3 351.9 336.7 375.9 404.3 399.9 407.5 416.5 69.1 131.0 156.8 113.9 179.2 164.8 184.4 132.3 103.9 27.5 54.0 80.1 98.0 58.5 129.8 67.6 69.3 49.4 23.4 18.7 -0.7 44.6 -7.5 1.8 64.6 32.7 -6.7 -34.2 — 11 4 87.5 54.7 35.5 105.5 56.7 65.2 34.9 76.0 83.6 34.8 -68.8 15.1 51.0 58.8 55.3 49.4 97.2 115.0 82.8 80.4 8.7 332.9 420.5 502.3 457.9 502.3 473.5 554.2 512.2 482.4 427.9 285.3 300.1 398.5 374.9 351.9 365.1 394.4 406.0 395.1 363.9 47.6 120.4 103.8 83.0 150.4 108.4 159.8 106.2 87.3 64.0 -16.3 2.8 -9.2 7.9 13.5 67.3 34.4 20.0 29.0 16.1 1990- TTT IV 511.5 410.1 391.9 402.7 119.6 7.4 5.4 300 -48.9 6.3 54.3 -36.3 114.2 37.5 524.8 360.7 401.8 362.2 123.0 -1.5 -13.4 49.4 1991- I 366.2 477.5 489.3 443.1 417.5 418.9 407.0 422.8 51 3 58.6 82.3 20.3 8.0 40.4 27.6 -1.3 71.8 113.1 77.5 87.0 -63.8 -72.7 -49.9 -88.3 59 3 18.2 54.8 21.5 345.7 437.1 491.0 437.7 353.5 351.3 371.5 379.2 -7.8 85.8 119.5 58.5 20.5 40.3 -1.7 5.4 1992- I 533.5 569.7 439.1 442.2 94.4 127.5 99.7 65.8 103.7 100.3 -4.0 34 5 -5.3 61.7 506.8 540.6 354.1 390.9 152.7 149.7 26.6 29.2 1982 1983 1984 n m... rv 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Period Total 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 19901991: Dec Dec . Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 3 Dec Dec Dec Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Automobile Revolving Other 2 Total 325,805 368,966 442,602 517,659 572,006 608,675 662,553 716,825 735,338 727,799 125,945 143,560 173,564 210,238 247,772 266,295 285,364 292,002 284,993 263,003 66,454 79,088 100,280 121,758 135,825 153,064 174,269 199,308 222,950 242,785 133,406 146,318 168,758 185,664 188,408 189,316 202,921 225,515 227,395 222,012 14,546 43,161 73,636 75,057 54,347 36,669 53,878 (4) 18,513 7 539 1991: Sept Oct Nov Dec 727,449 729,225 727,960 727,799 264,621 264,420 262,383 263,003 238,987 241,436 242,573 242,785 223,842 223,369 223,004 222,012 138 1,776 1 265 161 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May. June July AUK r Sepf 728,618 728,395 727,404 723,821 722,928 722,919 721,820 720,664 722,271 263,134 261,659 262,125 260,376 259,834 257,339 257,743 256,944 257,853 244,288 245,974 245,259 245,905 246,220 247,418 247,332 248,043 249,867 221,196 220,762 220,020 217,541 216,874 218,162 216,744 215,677 214,550 819 223 -990 3583 -893 -10 -1,099 -1,156 1,607 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc. 3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 Automobile 6,937 17,615 30,004 36,674 37,534 18,523 19,069 (4) -7,009 -21,990 1 999 -201 2 037 620 131 -1,475 466 -1,749 -542 2495 404 -799 909 Revolving Other 2 5,384 12,634 21,192 21,478 14,067 17,239 21,205 (4) 23,642 19,835 2,224 12,912 22,440 16,906 2,744 908 13,605 <4) 1,880 -5,383 2,693 2,449 1,137 212 554 -473 365 -992 1,503 1,686 -714 646 316 1,197 -86 711 1,824 816 -434 742 -2,479 -667 1,288 -1,418 1 068 -1,126 and subsequent months. 4 Because of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in November. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNU 1991 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 .. 1985 1986 1987 1988... 1989 1990 1991 1991: 1992: 3-month bills (new issues) 1 Mar Apr May July Sept Oct .... Nov Week ended: 1992: Nov 7 14 21 ... 28 1 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) » 30 Prime commercial paper, J 6 months Discount rate (N.T. F.R. Bank)4 Prime rate charged 4by banks New-home mortgage yields (FHFB) 5 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 8.49 8.55 7.86 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 7.24 7.25 6.89 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 9.26 9.32 8.77 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 8.80 7.95 5.85 13.42 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 6.93 6.98 5.45 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.21 9.32 10.87 10.01 8.46 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 10.13 10.05 9.32 4.60 4.12 3.84 3.84 4.05 3.81 3.66 3.70 3.28 3.14 2.97 2.84 3.14 5.90 5.39 5.40 5.72 6.18 5.93 5.81 5.60 4.91 4.72 4.42 4.64 5.14 7.42 7.09 7.03 7.34 7.54 7.48 7.39 7.26 6.84 6.59 6.42 6.59 6.87 6.64 6.63 6.41 6.67 6.69 6.64 6.57 6.50 6.12 6.08 6.24 6.38 6.35 8.48 8.31 8.20 8.29 8.35 8.33 8.28 8.22 8.07 7.95 7.92 7.99 8.10 4.93 4.49 4.06 4.13 4.38 4.13 3.97 3.99 3.53 3.44 3.26 3.33 3.67 5.00-4.50 4.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.50 3.50-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 8.00-7.50 7.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 8.64 8.53 8.49 8.65 8.51 8.58 8.59 8.43 8.00 8.00 7.93 3.05 3.10 3.13 3.27 5.03 5.09 5.17 5.24 6.90 6.88 6.84 6.86 6.48 6.36 6.28 6.27 8.11 8.14 8.07 8.06 3.49 3.60 3.76 3.79 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 8.55 8.26 6.82 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 8.12 7.51 5.42 Nov Dec Jan Peb Constant maturities 2 5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in November. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 180 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1989 199! 40 1992 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 15 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 1984 1991 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices J Common stock yields (percent) 5 New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965 = 50) 2 Period Composite Industrial Transportation 87.43 90.60 92.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 7.41 6.47 4.81 188.52 185.47 96.78 98.08 159.78 159.96 2,986.12 2,958.64 385.92 388.51 3.15 3.11 3.83 286.62 286.09 282.36 281.60 r 285.25 279.54 281.90 284.44 285.76 279.70 287.30 201.55 205.53 204.07 201.28 r 207.93 202.02 198.36 191.31 191.61 192.30 204.78 99.31 96.18 94.15 94.92 ' 98.26 97.23 101.18 103.41 102.26 101.62 101.13 174.50 ' 174.08 173.49 r !71.10 ' 175.90 174.82 '181.00 180.47 178.27 181.36 189.27 3,227.06 3,257.27 3,247.42 3,294.08 3,376.79 3,337.79 3,329.41 3,307.45 3,293.92 3,198.70 3,238.49 416.08 412.56 407.36 407.41 414.81 408.27 415.05 417.93 418.48 412.50 422.84 2.90 2.94 3.01 3.02 2.99 3.06 3.00 2.97 3.00 3.07 2.98 284.68 286.32 287.17 290.55 203.53 204.90 201.69 208.35 101.48 99.78 101.16 102.09 185.71 189.33 189.56 192.06 3,244.33 3,235.90 3,208.66 3,255.05 419.14 420.94 422.61 428.02 3.02 2.98 2.98 2.94 1991: Nov Dec 213.25 214.26 264.89 266.01 1992: Jan Feb Mar 229.34 228.12 225.21 224.55 ' 228.61 224.68 228.17 230.07 230.13 226.97 232.84 230.79 231.87 232.75 235.56 1 Average 2 Includes 3 Includes 4 Includes 8 of daily closing prices. all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. 30 stocks. 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- Earningsprice ratio 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.24 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 175.28 158.62 173.99 Week ended: 1992- Noy 7 14 21 28 Dividendprice ratio 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 322.84 334.59 376.18 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 216.23 225.78 258.14 Sept Oct Noy Dow-Jones industrial average 3 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 180.02 183.46 206.33 May ,.* Finance 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 151.88 133.26 150.82 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988. 1989 1990 1991 July Utility Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 4.01 4.18 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal 1993, there was a deficit of $48.9 billion, compared with a deficit of $36.6 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 BIUIONS OF DOUARS 1,600 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-!/ 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,400 1,300 1,300 OUTLAYS-!' 1,200 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 RECEIPTS-L/ 800 800 700 700 600 V 600 _^^-^" ^^--^_ *~ A ! ^1984 1 1985 . ^~1 1986 1 1987 1 1988 1 1989 1 1990 I 1991 1 1992 j\ 1993 ^ FISCAL YEARS •^INCLUDES ON-8UDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DH>ARTM^fT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT WD BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISKS [Billions of dollars] Receipts 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983... 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 ' 1992 2 1993 (estimates) 1 First month: 2 Fiscal year 1992 Fiscal year 1993 Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 -73.7 -53.7 -59.2 40 2 -73.8 790 -128.0 -207.8 - 185.4 231.7 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.1 594.4 661.3 686.0 -70.5 -49.8 -54.9 -38.2 -72.7 740 -120.1 2080 -185.7 66.4 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -3.2 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 1l -5.0 79 .2 .3 629.0 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,091.7 1,162.9 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,144.2 1,251.8 1,323.8 1,381.9 1,503.9 -212.3 -221.2 149 8 -155.2 153 5 -220.5 -269.5 -290.2 -341.0 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.0 749.7 760.4 789.3 838.9 769.6 806.8 810.1 861.4 933.3 1,026.7 1,082.1 1,129.3 1,238.7 -221.7 -238.0 -169.3 -194.0 -206.2 -277.1 321 7 -340.1 -399.7 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 324.0 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.6 265.2 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 49.9 58.8 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,867.5 3,206.3 3,599.0 4,002.8 4,463.4 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.3 1 2,189.3 2,410.4 2,687.9 2,998.8 3,355.3 78.1 76.8 114.7 125.7 36 6 -48.9 57.2 55.1 94.7 103.9 37 5 -48.8 20.9 21.8 20.0 21.8 .9 -.1 3,651.1 4,006.1 2,727.8 2,997.2 1 Data are from Mid-Session Review. The President's Budget and Economic Growth Agenda, Office of Management and Budget, July 24, 1992. 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. 32 Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Fiscal year or period NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of Ike United States Government, Fiscal Year 1993, Supplement, issued February 18, 1992, and are on a cash basis. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal 1993, receipts were $1.3 billion lower than a year earlier and outlays were $11.0 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DO LIARS 600 BILUC}NS OF DOLIARS 600 1 RECEIPTS ' INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES \ 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 CORPORATION INrOMFTAYF"; \ OTHER RECEIPTS \ 100 1 0 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTPIR1 ITIONS 200 100 ^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 0 1,300 1,300 OUTLAYS •J' 1,200 1,200 ^' 1,100 1,000 NONDEFENSE \ 900 1,100 1,000 - *" ~" 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 300 200 A ^ 1984 r——T—i 1985 1986 NATONAi DEFENSE 400 \ 300 i 1987 i 1988 i 1989 T 1990 r~ 1991 i 1992 K 1993 200 N FISCAL YEARS ^INCLUDES QN-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER s [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,091.7 1,162.9 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 466.9 467.8 476.5 507.0 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 98.1 100.3 112.2 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 380.0 396.0 413.7 444.5 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.3 90.9 92.3 101.3 99.2 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,144.2 1,251.8 1,323.8 1,381.9 1,503.9 78.1 76.8 40.1 37.3 .4 2.1 28.4 29.6 9.1 7.9 114.7 125.7 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 ' 1992 2 1993 (estimates) * First month: 2 Fiscal year 1992 Fiscal year 1993 1 Data are from Mid-Session Review: The President's Office of Management and Budget, July 24, 1992. 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. Nationa defense Social insurance taxes and contributions Other Social security Net interest Other 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.5 42.6 52.5 68.8 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 57.7 71.2 89.6 106.3 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.5 119.0 132.5 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.0 147.3 170.8 199.4 202.3 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 287.5 303.4 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 184.2 194.5 199.4 210.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 159.8 202.7 224.5 172.7 239.7 7.2 8.0 10.0 11.0 14.3 18.3 22.7 24.3 16.8 16.5 18.1 18.1 Health 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 273.3 298.2 291.2 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 289.8 262.4 286.6 278.2 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 13.8 15.9 16.1 18.2 23.8 27.4 22.8 26.2 1.8 2.1 Total '.I and Economic Growth Agenda, Income security International affairs Total Department of Defense, military Medicare NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1993, Supplement, issued February 18, 1992, and are on a cash basis. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1992, according to revised estimates. Federal receipts rose $5.6 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $4.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,400 1,400 1,200 . EXPENDITURES - 1,200 1,000 1,000 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( - ) X i i 1 1 1 1 1987 1 1 1988 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC APVI5ERS Pillions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures . Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1988 1989 1990 1991 Calendar year: 1988 1989 1990 1991 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: IV.... 1986- IV 1987: IV.. 1988- IV 1989: IV 1990: III IV 1991: I. II III. . IV 1992: I II III r Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 955.1 1,050.1 1,089.5 1,114.9 403.8 456.8 473.2 472.1 107.6 119.2 113.8 104.4 59.6 62.2 63.9 74.8 384.1 411.9 438.6 463.5 1,098.5 1,164.5 1,249.5 1,310.9 386.3 399.4 417.7 447.1 430.9 461.1 504.6 510.7 108.4 115.9 128.3 147.0 143.8 160.6 175.1 183.1 28.9 27.6 23.9 23.0 -0.1 .0 .0 -.1 -143.3 -114.4 -159.9 -196.1 972.3 1,059.3 1,107.4 1,122.2 632.3 671.1 739.8 803.6 856.8 943.5 1,000.6 1,068.3 1,119.9 1,113.3 1,114.6 1,117.3 1,127.7 1,129.4 1,143.3 1,149.8 1,155.4 410.1 461.9 482.6 473.4 301.6 290.5 323.5 351.8 371.7 414.8 420.0 470.1 486.6 482.5 474.7 473.1 473.4 472.2 468.4 464.2 476.2 111.0 117.1 113.9 102.5 45.5 65.4 67.0 77.0 91.4 109.7 118.5 111.3 119.2 111.7 100.3 101.6 104.9 103.3 112.2 118.3 108.1 60.9 61.9 66.0 78.2 49.2 55.4 58.2 56.8 54.8 59.5 61.4 62.2 65.4 68.5 77.3 76.3 78.3 80.8 79.2 79.8 81.3 390.4 418.5 444.9 468.2 235.9 259.8 291.1 318.0 338.8 359.4 400.7 424.7 448.8 450.6 462.2 466.3 471.1 473.2 483.5 487.4 489.8 1,109.0 1,181.6 1,273.6 1,332.7 815.7 855.7 926.6 990.8 1,034.3 1,096.3 1,135.5 1,209.8 1,265.5 1,307.9 1,264.4 1,329.4 1,348.7 1,388.1 1,432.5 1,452.7 1,457.3 387.0 401.6 426.4 447.3 281.4 289.7 324.7 356.9 373.1 392.5 392.0 405.1 422.6 438.3 451.3 449.9 447.2 440.8 445.0 444.8 454.1 436.3 471.5 513.3 521.9 346.0 351.1 360.1 383.8 404.2 419.7 444.5 488.8 513.1 525.5 461.6 514.8 545.5 565.9 609.8 619.5 621.6 111.3 118.2 132.3 153.3 84.3 86.9 97.7 104.5 103.8 102.9 113.0 121.9 131.2 137.6 144.3 151.9 153.4 163.6 165.1 174.1 174.2 146.0 164.8 176.6 186.9 86.8 99.2 122.3 129.2 131.1 143.1 151.2 168.9 183.3 174.8 182.7 188.1 186.8 190.1 186.8 187.5 187.2 28.4 25.5 25.1 23.1 17.3 28.8 22.2 16.4 22.1 37.8 34.9 25.0 15.3 32.0 24.8 24.4 15.7 27.7 25.7 26.9 20.2 .0 .0 .1 — .1 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .2 .2 -.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -136.6 -122.3 -166.2 -210.4 -183.4 -184.6 -186.8 -187.2 -177.5 -152.7 134 g -141.5 -145.6 - 194.6 - 149.9 -212.2 -221.0 -258.7 -289.2 -302.9 -301.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA) Industrial production (1987 — 100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Japan France Germany 81.9 84.9 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 105.4 108.1 109.2 107.1 76.5 81.5 91.4 96.5 95.4 100.0 105.3 104.9 100.5 96.4 82.9 85.5 93.4 96.8 96.6 100.0 109.2 115.9 121.4 124.1 97.3 96.5 97.1 97.2 98.0 100.0 104.6 108.8 110.9 111.2 90.3 90.9 93.5 97.7 99.6 100.0 103.9 108.8 114.5 118.0 91.7 88.9 91.8 92.9 96.2 100.0 105.9 109.2 109.4 107.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 108.4 108.1 107.4 97.2 97.0 97.6 97.1 96.7 95.3 ' 126.0 111.1 ' 123.1 111.1 r 124.2 109.8 ' 123.5 111.2 ' 123.6 110.2 ' 122.2 109.1 r l!8.9 l!7.1 106.5 104.1 107.9 105.8 111.6 104.7 106.6 107.2 107.6 108.1 108.9 108.5 ' 109.4 ' 109.0 ' 108.7 109.0 95.6 96.4 111.0 121.5 120.6 110.1 117.7 109.9 117.6 r lll,4 115.6 ' 109.5 118.1 ' 109.7 109.7 119.0 * 114.4 109.7 119.0 119.2 120.3 118.5 117.6 117.7 116.0 115.7 ' 115.7 113.1 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 » 1991: July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1992- Jan Feb Mar May , r July . ' Sept Oct" 1 United Kingdom Canada 1982 1983 r 96.5 '96.8 r 96.3 96.4 r '96.0 97.8 r Italy 117.5 r l!7.4 117.9 113.4 United States ' France Germany 87.7 100.8 111.5 121.1 128.5 134.4 141.1 150.4 159.6 169.7 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 135.4 148.2 156.9 Italy 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 94.9 100.4 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 129.3 135.5 143.1 98.0 99.8 102.1 104.1 104.8 104.9 105.7 108.0 111.4 115.0 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.4 128.9 133.2 137.2 97.0 100.3 102.7 104.8 104.7 104.9 106.3 109.2 112.1 116.0 101.4 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 143.8 143.9 143.7 143.4 144.0 143.4 114.7 114.9 115.1 116.4 116.6 116.0 137.4 137.7 138.0 138.6 138.9 139.1 116.8 116.8 117.0 117.4 117.9 118.0 171.4 170.3 171.0 172.3 173.5 174.0 157.2 157.6 158.1 158.7 159.3 159.4 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.8 144.0 144.1 144.6 144.6 144.9 145.2 145.6 145.6 145.5 145.7 115.8 115.7 116.3 117.5 117.6 117.5 116.6 116.9 117.5 139.4 139.8 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.0 141.4 141.5 141.5 142.0 118.5 119.2 119.7 120.0 120.5 120.7 120.7 120.9 121.2 121.7 175.4 175.9 176.6 177.3 178.3 178.9 179.1 179.2 179.8 180.9 159.3 160.1 160.6 163.1 163.7 163.7 163.1 163.2 163.8 164.4 r 99.8 100.3 100.8 100.4 100.1 r 99.0 100.3 99.4 100.0 99.0 99.0 r 99.9 99.7 100.1 Data relate to all urban consumers. United Kingdom Japan 86.4 89.6 89.7 94.6 96.9 100.0 103.6 104.0 103.4 ' 100.4 r 108.5 111.0 110.7 104.5 109.0 107.1 107.3 Canada Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) 1 General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Principal end-use commodity category Foods, feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other " 216.4 205.6 224.0 5 218.8 5 227.2 254.1 322.4 363.8 393.6 421.7 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 37.2 35.1 35.7 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 99.3 104.4 109.7 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 138.8 152.7 166.7 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 34.8 37.4 40.0 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 36.4 43.3 45.9 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 17.2 20.7 23.7 35.3 36.8 37.3 36.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 8.6 9.3 8.9 8.9 14.4 14.4 15.4 14.3 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.8 35.5 37.7 37.1 36.4 35.7 38.2 37.8 35.8 38.2 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.7 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.3 9.6 8.7 9.2 13.9 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.9 15.3 14.5 14.0 15.2 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.5 Period Total 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990.... 1991 1991: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1992: Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Sept 1 2 3 4 2 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Total includes revisions not reflected in detail. Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other 244.0 258.0 330.7 336.5 365.4 406.2 441.0 473.2 495.3 487.1 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 26.6 26.5 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 132.3 143.2 131.0 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 113.3 116.4 120.7 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 86.1 87.3 84.9 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 102.9 105.7 108.0 6.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 13.6 16.1 15.9 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 493.2 508.4 654 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 41.8 42.7 41.4 41.7 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 11.1 11.1 10.8 10.8 10.2 10.3 9.9 10.3 7.4 7.7 7.2 7.2 9.4 10.0 9.8 9.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 43.6 44.5 43.1 43.4 -6.5 -5.9 —4.1 -5.6 -8.3 -7.6 -5.8 -7.4 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 41.3 40.9 42.7 43.5 42.9 44.9 45.1 44.7 46.5 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 10.6 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.9 11.9 11.7 12.1 10.3 10.3 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.8 7.3 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 9.5 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.3 11.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 43.0 42.6 44.4 45.3 44.5 46.6 46.9 46.5 48.4 -5.8 -3.3 -5.6 -7.1 -7.1 -6.7 -7.3 -8.9 -8.3 -7.6 -5.0 -7.3 -8.9 -8.8 -8.5 -9.1 -10.7 — 10.2 Total 4 4 517.0 Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) -27.5 -52.4 -38.4 — 64.2 -106.7 -117.7 -122.4 -133.6 138 3 -155.1 -152.1 -170.3 -118.5 -137.1 - 109.4 -129.4 -101.7 -123.4 -86.6 8 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical month basis. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1992, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $26.5 billion, from $24.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 15 -45 1983 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise * 2 Net military transactions 3 4 Net travel and transportation receipts Other services, net Receipts on U.S. assets abroad Payments on foreign assets in U.S. -844 112 -563 -2,547 -4,390 -5,181 3 812 -6,354 -115,668 -6,838 108 853 -7,818 -73,436 -5,524 144 992 -4,227 -8,293 -9,709 -7,324 6 398 -1,370 5,851 10,142 17,118 12,552 13,209 14,095 14,277 14,266 18,855 18,400 20,430 26,752 29,730 33,701 86,529 86,200 85,614 100,415 91,110 88,998 96,574 119,456 140,692 143,547 125,315 53 626 -56,412 53 700 -69,572 67 875 -73,620 -85,629 - 106,991 -126,326 - 124,261 - 108,886 Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1990: I n ni IV 1991: I n ra IV 1992- I H* m".... 1 2 3 r Investment income Services Net Balance on goods, services, and income Unilateral transfers, net 4 Balance on current account Exports Imports 237,044 211,157 201,799 219,926 215,915 223,344 250,208 320,230 361,697 388,705 415,962 -265,067 -247,642 -268,901 -332,418 -338,088 -368,425 -409,765 -447,189 477 365 -497,558 -489,398 28 023 -36,485 -67,102 -112,492 -122,173 - 145,081 -159,557 126 959 94,981 96,654 96,544 100,526 -122,360 -121,461 -125,434 - 128,303 -27,379 -24,807 -28,890 -27,777 -1,873 -1,627 -1,692 -2,627 2,093 2,073 2,120 3,855 6,984 7,237 7,461 8,051 35,004 34,586 35,137 38,821 -30,676 -31,386 -30,913 -31,289 4,328 3,200 4,224 7,532 100,636 103,324 104,151 107,851 -118,962 -119,721 -124,325 - 126,390 -18,326 -2,564 -16,397 -1,427 -20,174 -994 -18,539 -539 3,755 3,929 4,358 5,080 8,164 8,280 8,660 8,596 35,498 31,215 29,904 28,698 -28,533 -27,284 -26,828 -26,240 6,965 3,931 3,076 2,458 -2,006 -1,684 -5,075 -2,945 14,199 4,115 -6,012 -4,273 12,193 2,431 -11,087 -7,218 4,401 4,568 10,067 9,045 28,499 28,078 -24,025 -26,701 4,474 1,377 1,096 - 10,069 6999 -7,719 -5,903 -17,788 107,946 107,464 110,812 r -125,168 -132,022 -137,350 Net balance -17,222 " - 24,558 -26,538 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 36 -625 -641 4 5,030 16,732 -11,702 32,903 5,632 -17,075 — 11,443 29,788 31,915 -25,882 -17,741 -43,623 30,843 -78,212 -20,612 -98,824 23,235 -98,771 -22,950 -121,721 15,378 -123,354 -24,176 -147,529 10,945 - 140,421 -23,052 -163,474 12,466 -101,787 -24,869 - 126,656 14,366 -75,537 -25,606 -101,143 19,287 -57,511 -32,916 -90,428 -3,682 8,028 16,429 -11,710 -15,847 -6,538 -13,924 -7,401 -16,777 -7,201 -10,966 -11,778 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. -22,385 -21,325 -23,978 -22,744 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $12.6 billion in the second quarter of 1992, following a decrease of $15.9 billion in the first quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $5.1 billion in the second quarter, following a decrease of $4.5 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 80 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET ' N \ \ 60 \ * / , I . . i '\ i 20 •20 -60 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capit al outflow (— )] Period Total 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1990: 1991: 1992: 114 147 -122,335 58856 -29^224 -34,069 -91,069 -62,402 -92,708 -114,944 -56,321 -62,220 I 42,141 II -30,682 m -30,964 IV -36,816 I -640 n -7,050 Ill .... -10,368 IV -44,158 I -4,250 II".... -5,752 U.S. official reserve assets 3 s 5 175 -4,965 1 196 -3,131 3 858 312 9,149 -3,912 -25,293 -2,158 5,763 -3,177 371 1,739 -1,091 -353 1,014 3,877 1,225 -1,057 1,464 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow (+)] U.S. private assets 5097 -103,875 -6,131 111 239 5 006 -52,654 -5,489 20605 2 821 -27,391 -2,022 -89,360 1,006 -72,556 2,967 -91,762 90922 1,271 2,304 -56,467 3,397 71 379 -743 46,061 30 259 -794 -32,366 4,179 39903 1,073 -1,360 -420 7 644 3,180 -17,426 -437 -44,947 38 -3,155 -6,987 -209 Total 83,032 92,418 83,380 102,010 130,966 223,191 229,972 219,489 213,693 99,379 66,980 -30,965 30,853 51,386 48,108 -7,840 2,959 22,933 48,929 18,563 43,087 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve posi tion in the IMF. Foreign official assets 3 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,119 35,648 45,387 39,758 8,489 33,908 18,407 -6,450 6,134 14,097 20,127 5,650 -4,178 4,115 12,819 21,192 21,071 Other foreign assets 78,072 88,826 77,534 98,870 132,084 187,543 184,585 179,731 205,204 65,471 48,573 -24,515 24,719 37,289 27,981 -13,490 7,137 18,818 36,110 -2,629 22,016 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 24,992 41,359 19,099 26,038 24,825 15,407 —4,096 -126 2,394 47,370 — 1 078 11,209 21,154 3,556 11,452 -3,713 1,660 -1,478 2,447 -8,410 - 19,567 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 4,489 518 -5,605 600 4,636 883 -6,137 613 4,023 343 U.S. official reserve assets, net5 (unadjusted, end of period) 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 74,609 83,316 77,721 76,303 77,298 80,024 83,316 78,002 74,940 74,731 77,721 74,657 77,092 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Changes in GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Implicit Price Deflators and Price Indexes Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment in 1987 Dollars Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagriculrural Employment :. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. ' Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.75 (single copy) ($3.44 foreign). Subscription price: $30.00 per year; $37.50 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1992 0—60-921