Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session OEC \ 8 W9 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1989 (Includes data available as of December 1, 1989) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1989 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the third quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.1 percent (annual rate) or $77.2 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.7 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 3.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 5,200 5,200 ^ 4,800 - 4,800 ^\ ^ — — GNP 4,400 iN CURRENT DC)tLARS^^-^" 4,400 ^ __. — 4,000 4,000 ^\ — — ,''"" 3,600 3,600 \ 1 GNP ^S It-J 1982 DOLLAF S ^ " y" — X^ 3,200 — 3,200 *•— ,^»—C"IT.- - ^~ — 2,800 2,800 2,400 \ \ \ 1 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1984 1983 1982 1 1 1985 1 1 1 1 \ 1986 1 \ \ \ 1 1988 1987 1 1 2,400 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER s SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,524.3 4,880.6 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 589 -78.0 -97.4 1126 -73.7 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 448.6 547.7 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.9 493.8 561.2 621.3 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 926.1 968.9 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.8 298.0 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.8 83.3 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,297.3 4,665.8 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,083.3 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 749.7 14.1 -25.8 67 9 -103.2 1089 114 6 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 482.6 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 597.2 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 888.9 947.5 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 388.1 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 296.8 n m 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 -82.8 749 -66.2 70 8 521.6 532.5 556.8 579.7 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 I 5,113.1 5,201.7 5,278.9 3,381.4 3,444.1 3,513.2 769.6 775.0 779.0 -54.0 506 -53.5 605.6 626.1 623.3 659.6 676.6 676.8 1,016.0 1,033.2 1,040.2 399.0 406.0 403.3 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 19861987- IV IV IV IV IV IV 1988: I IV 1989: 1 n r m Gross national product Net exports Exports Imports Total Total Gross domestic purchases 1 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.7 544.5 587.6 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,495.0 4,850.0 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,329.0 4,636.8 4,954.3 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 91.3 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 559.4 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 4,602.5 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 4,780.4 297.4 298.0 296.1 300.5 76.7 79.1 71.4 105.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 4,709.8 4,809.2 4,882.3 4,998.7 4,822.5 4,913.4 4,993.1 5,088.1 298.7 301.3 308.2 100.4 104.7 95.1 617.0 627.2 636.8 5,085.4 5,174.3 5,252.0 5,167.1 5,252.3 5,332.3 National defense Nondefense State and local Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Final sales Federal V —i. ---JK. OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,853.7 4,024.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,446.4 2,513.7 2,598.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 455.5 493.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 194.8 194.1 -6.9 57.0 23.9 49.4 245 26.3 -6.4 -19.9 62.3 840 9.1 -104.3 5.6 -129.7 23.7 -115.7 27.9 -74.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 450.9 530.1 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 566.6 605.0 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 781.8 785.1 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 3,935.6 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 2,532.3 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 472.7 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 200.3 191.9 -59.3 11.7 27.0 -46.2 41.7 -94.8 7.7 -125.3 -20.8 -135.4 56.6 109 8 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 484.1 324.3 401.6 471.4 492.6 541.9 593.9 n m 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627.7 483.6 497.8 501.0 492.7 189.1 194.2 195.1 198.1 34.3 21.5 37.5 18.3 -78.2 -72.6 -74.9 -73.8 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 n. r. m 4,106.8 4,132.5 4,160.2 2,641.0 2,653.7 2,694.1 501.0 511.4 517.2 195.6 189.3 185.2 24.5 19.1 21.2 -55.0 -51.2 -63.6 569.7 587.5 589.8 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987- IV IV IV.. . . IV IV IV 1988- I IV 1989: I 1 Gross national product Change in business inventories Federal Net exports Exports GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Imports Total State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases 1 National defense Nondefense 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.9 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 252.1 265.2 261.5 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.4 67.4 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 442.1 456.2 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,830.0 3,996.5 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,969.4 4,099.3 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 792.1 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 344.9 201.4 211.6 225.3 241.4 255.8 266.7 88.2 54.4 75.2 99.2 86.6 78.2 370.6 376.2 392.7 412.1 433.6 447.2 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,879.0 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 4,045.5 595.6 592.3 606.9 625.2 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 263.0 262.5 258.8 261.6 60.8 65.4 61.0 82,3 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 4,052.9 4,083.3 4,117.6 4,143.2 624.6 638.7 653.4 799.7 810.3 806.0 335.5 343.6 336.6 254.4 255.8 260.4 81.1 87.8 76.1 464.2 466.7 469.4 4,082.3 4,113.5 4,139.0 4,161.8 4,183.7 4,223.8 Total Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal tial fixed Exports Imports Total National defense j Nondefense State and local 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.8 124.5 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.1 110.1 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.3 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 129.0 134.9 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 97.5 98.7 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.3 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.7 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.4 115.9 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.7 123.6 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 123.2 128.8 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 118.6 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 121.8 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 109.0 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 113.7 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 131.5 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 97.0 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 118.7 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.7 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 100.6 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 112.5 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 111.3 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 116.8 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 125.1 n m 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 122.5 123.9 125.1 126.5 109.3 109.6 110.2 111.2 114.0 115.9 117.1 118.2 132.7 134.2 135.6 137.3 97.7 97.8 98.4 100.6 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 100.8 102.5 104.7 105.1 101.5 102.6 102.7 104.0 115.5 115.0 114.9 118.2 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.9 126.2 121.0 117.1 128.7 126.7 128.1 129.6 130.8 n. .. mr 124.5 125.9 126.9 128.0 129.8 130.4 111.2 110.8 111.4 120.0 123.3 122.9 139.0 140.4 141.8 100.4 100.2 100.4 122.1 124.2 125.7 106.3 106.6 105.7 105.6 105.9 103.6 118.9 118.2 119.8 117.4 117.8 118.4 123.8 119.2 124.9 132.9 134.4 135.7 1980 1981 1982 1983. 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987: IV... IV IV IV IV IV 1988: I IV 1989: I Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 19861987: 1988- Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5.4 6.9 7.9 4.2 12.4 4.7 6.2 4.2 9.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 7.1 6.1 . . IV IV IV IV IV IV I n m IV 1989- I n mr 0.2 1.9 25 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 .6 7.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 6.6 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 2.5 2.7 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption expenditures Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.9 2.9 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.6 3.2 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.4 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 6.2 3.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 7.6 8.3 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.0 2.9 Implicit price deflator 02 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.4 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 2.2 -.7 6.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.0 1.9 6.2 Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.8 3.9 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.4 2.3 4.7 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.7 1.9 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.5 2.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.8 6.3 2.2 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.1 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.3 2.6 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.7 5.8 2.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) * Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Net interest Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984.. . 1985 1986 1987 . 1988 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: I n.. ni IV 1989: 1 I n m'' .. . 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,367.1 2,520.7 2,731.3 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 2,309.4 2,408.7 2,598.4 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.104 1.129 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.109 1.112 1.123 1.132 1.148 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .123 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .122 .122 .122 .122 .124 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .106 .107 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .106 .106 .107 .108 .108 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .730 .744 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .734 .732 .740 .746 .756 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .047 .052 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .050 .050 .051 .053 .055 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .098 .103 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .098 .102 .103 .102 .105 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .041 .044 2,648.1 2,705.9 2,754.9 2,816.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4 2,173.9 2,282.6 2,419.5 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,198.5 2,343.3 2,381.8 2,408.9 2,434.1 2,453.2 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .041 .041 .044 .044 .045 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .058 .059 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .057 .060 .059 .058 .061 2,842.7 2,887.2 2,935.5 2,459.1 2,471.3 2,496.6 1.156 1.168 1.176 .125 .126 .129 .110 .111 .112 .768 .778 .783 .057 .060 .061 .096 .093 .090 .045 .041 .038 .051 .053 .053 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 4 Total Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 18.770 19.423 ' 19.784 ' 20. 116 r 20.650 r 21.176 r 21.382 r 21.401 r 21.469 '21.446 10.769 11.777 12.635 13.039 13.528 14.069 14.746 15.252 ' 15.907 12.865 13.209 13.735 r 14.341 ' 15.008 ' 15.535 * 15.645 r 15.833 ' 16.024 ' 16.213 r 21.356 ' 2 1.364 ' 16.407 ' 16.625 18.524 18.643 18.704 19.217 19.682 19.996 20.456 20.908 r 21.393 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Kental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 1982... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988.. . 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987- IV 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,665.4 3,972.6 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3,473.1 3,799.9 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,690.0 2,907.6 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,571.2 2,778.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 48.4 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 280.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 14.3 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 298.7 328.6 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 308.2 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 255.8 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 276.2 10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 8.1 -1.6 6.6 -8.0 -20.4 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 50.9 46.8 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 52.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 351.7 392.9 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 370.0 1988: I. II III.... IV 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2.819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 44.0 45.4 37.7 32.0 279.9 286.5 289.3 296.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 20 1 49.9 48.9 46.9 41.5 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 1989- I 4,185.2 4,249.6 4,284.0 3,061.7 3,118.2 3,171.9 59.0 51.3 36.3 300.3 304.2 307.3 11.8 9.8 5.2 316.3 307.8 292.3 279.7 275.5 266.0 318.0 296.0 272.0 38.3 -20.5 6.0 36.6 32.3 26.3 436.1 458.4 471.0 nr m 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance- (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,083.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 421.0 455.2 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 422.0 424.5 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 195.5 211.6 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 196.3 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 149.1 162.0 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.4 1988: I 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 210.3 212.5 208.4 215.3 1989: I 3,381.4 3,444.1 3,513.2 466.4 471.0 488.5 211.7 212.9 277.8 Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987.. 1988 '982: 1983: 1984: 19851986: 1987- IV IV IV.... IV IV IV n m rv n p m Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts. Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable goods Food 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.5 81.6 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 76.7 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 998.1 1,052.3 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 952.1 1,015.4 156.9 162.2 162.7 166.1 79.2 79.9 81.4 86.0 172.1 173.5 173.9 82.6 84.6 86.7 Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 529.2 559.7 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 536.8 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 177.2 186.8 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 168.7 180.6 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.2 76.8 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 76.7 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.6 229.0 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 221.3 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,591.7 1,727.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,643.3 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 542.5 554.5 567.8 574.1 180.8 183.6 188.9 193.9 74.3 76.9 78.3 77.6 224.5 227.5 231.2 232.8 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 1,098.3 1,121.5 1,133.7 587.3 592.2 599.8 195.0 198.9 202.6 77.9 89.5 85.0 238.1 241.0 246.3 1,816.7 1,851.7 1,891.0 7.0 7.3 7.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 Other Domestics Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $40.6 billion (annual rate) in October following an increase of $11.2 billion in September. The increases were affected by several special factors: The Loma Prieta earthquake in October and Hurricane Hugo in September reduced personal income by about $21.0 billion (annual rate) and $15.0 billion (annual rate), respectively. Other special factors in October were a large increase in subsidy payments to farm proprietors and bonus payments to employees in the motor vehicle industry. Excluding the impact of the special factors, personal income rose about $33.0 billion in October, and about $26.0 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS Of DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,0001 — 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,400 1,400 OTHER INCOME 800 800 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 1981 1982 1985 1984 1983 1986 1988 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May July r. Aug r Sept ' Oet p personal income Wage and salary disbursements 1 Proprietor, ' income 3 Other labor income 1 2 2 2584 2,520.9 2 6708 2 838 6 3 108 7 3 325 3 3 526 2 3 777 6 4064 5 1 372 0 1,510.3 1 586 1 1 676 6 1 838 6 1 975 4 2 094 8 2 249 4 2429 0 4 1804 4 168 9 4 206 3 2497 1 2 501 6 2 516 7 173 6 182 9 187 6 199 3 212 8 228 9 234 7 236 5 238 2 4 273 1 4 319 5 4360 7 4 387 1 4 396 3 4417 5 4444 3 4458 5 4469 7 45103 2 545 4 2 557 3 2 579 4 2 601 3 2 603 5 2 621 7 2 644 7 2 651 0 2 6684 2 701 3 239 7 241 3 242 9 244 4 246 0 247 5 249 1 250 7 252 2 253 8 1384 150.3 163 6 Farm 205 30.7 24 6 12 4 30 5 30 2 34 7 41 6 39 8 160 1 156.1 150 9 47 1 19 5 294 178 4 204 0 225 6 247 2 270 0 288 0 295 8 295 7 297 4 480 65 9 63 0 564 54 3 43 2 390 36 8 33 1 400 299 6 300 6 300 8 304 6 303 5 304 6 306 0 3080 307 7 307 8 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Nonfarm Less: income of persons 4 66 13.3 13 6 13 2 85 92 11 6 13 4 15 7 164 16 1 160 13 8 11 8 99 98 98 97 93 83 — 18 76 dividend income interest income payments 5 contributions for social insurance personal income 6 52 9 61.3 63 9 68 7 75 5 78 7 85 8 920 102 2 271 9 335.4 369 7 393 1 444 7 4780 493 2 523 2 571 1 324 7 368.1 4106 442 6 456 6 489 8 521 5 548 2 584 7 88 6 104.5 112 3 120 1 132 7 149 3 161 9 172 9 194 9 2,215.8 2,465.6 2 618 7 2 7990 3052 1 3 271 3 3 469 4 3 714 7 4003 7 105 8 1065 1069 5908 598 6 6064 592 2 593 5 595 6 1995 199 1 200 1 4 112.3 4 1284 4 1559 1084 109 4 1103 111 0 111 4 111 8 112 8 113 3 113 6 114 8 6165 628 9 641 5 6484 6552 661 8 6657 669 3 672.6 6754 6107 614 2 624 2 623 9 6255 6309 632 6 6364 640 2 643 5 2090 209 8 211 3 212 6 212 7 213 8 214 8 215 2 2163 218 7 4,204.0 4 2324 4,276.5 43094 4,320.5 4 352 6 4 383.6 44000 4,414.8 4448 2 5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the third quarter of 1989. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 6,000 6,000 1989 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal Less: Personal tax and nontax payments TH" 1 Disposable income COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Personal saving Less: Personal outlays 1 Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1980 1981.. 1982 1983.. 1984 1985.. 1986 1987.. 1988 2,258.5 2,520.9 2,670.8 2338.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3J77.6 4,064.5 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.7 586.6 1,918.0 2|l27.6 2,261.4 2^428.1 2^668.6 2,838.7 3,013.3 3^205.9 3^477.8 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1982 dollars Dollars 1 781.1 1,968.1 2 107.5 2,297.4 2^504.5 2,713.3 2 888.5 3,104.1 3,333.1 136.9 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 125.4 124.9 101.8 144.7 2,214.3 2,248.6 2 261.5 2,331.9 2,469.8 2,542.8 2 635.3 2,676.6 2/793.2 8,421 9,243 9 724 10,340 ll'257 11,861 12 469 13,140 14416 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent — .5 7.1 7.5 6.8 2.1 4.9 2.0 2.6 .6 3.3 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.1 3.2 4.2 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237^051 239,322 241,660 243,985 246^378 9 722 9,769 9 724 9,930 10,419 10,625 10 905 10,970 n',331 7,607 8,320 8 818 9,515 10,253 10,985 11 576 12,340 13431 8,783 — 1.1 8,794 8 818 9,139 9^489 9,839 10 123 10,303 10^546 .5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: IV IV IV IV IV IV 1988: I II m.... IV 1989: I II r m ... 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,597.8 3,908.7 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 589.2 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,063.4 3,319.4 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,961.4 3,177.6 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 102.0 141.8 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 2,726.2 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,629 13,552 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 11,130 9,068 9,825 10,479 11,240 11,825 12,588 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,214 10,339 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.3 4.3 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,579 244,936 3,948.5 4,026.6 4,097.6 4,185.2 572.2 590.7 585.9 597.8 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587.4 3,244.4 3,301.9 3,362.1 3,424.0 131.9 134.0 149.6 163.4 2,757.2 2,773.3 2,806.4 2,835.9 13,754 13,966 14,235 14,504 11,232 11,273 11,377 11,466 12,824 13,028 13,229 13,439 10,473 10,515 10,573 10,624 3.7 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 245,476 246,008 246,685 247,343 4,317.8 4,400.3 4,457.5 628.3 652.6 649.1 3,689.5 3,747.7 3,808.4 3,483.8 3,547.0 3,617.3 205.7 200.7 191.1 2,881.7 2,887.6 2,920.6 14,884 15,084 15,286 11,625 11,622 11,723 13,641 13,862 14,101 10,654 10,681 10,814 5.7 -.1 3.5 5.6 5.4 5.0 247,890 248,456 249,140 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1989, according to current estimates, gross farm income rose $5.8 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $5.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) *40 onn 240 rr r^ ^*~- 160 * ^-^— 120 *"^ I—- " ~^\ 160 120 GR DSS FARM INC UMb 80 80 «*"* 40 1 /' 20 <• *•-* "\ \ *N • I \ \ \ | 1 | /N / * 1 S ; \ * 1 /\ '" '--v ~" ^V An i -** NX N •**" ^— — X ' ^ / ^/ ' T Jf*^ 20 NET FARM INCOMfc 1 i 1 1 l\ 1 i\ I ' \* I \; I 10 ii 2 I I I 1981 \ 1 i i i I 1982 1 1983 1 1984 1 1 I 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 \ \ I 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rat* Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: m IV 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n. m IV 1989: I n" 1 149.3 166.4 163.5 153.0 174.9 166.4 160.4 171.6 177.6 156.2 164.2 170.5 172.4 167.6 175.6 174.7 182.0 175.0 178.6 197.7 203.5 139.7 141.7 142.6 136.6 142.4 144.1 135.5 139.5 151.5 135.7 139.3 131.3 143.8 144.8 138.1 144.4 148.8 160.4 152.2 152.7 168.9 Livestock and products 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 75.7 78.9 76.2 74.2 72.8 76.4 77.8 75.8 81.8 75.3 78.3 80.3 83.0 80.5 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.3 64.0 63.8 72.6 59.5 65.1 58.6 67.4 66.9 62.2 62.6 73.5 82.1 71.9 69.7 88.4 3 Value of inventory changes 2 63 6.5 14 -10.9 6.3 -2.4 27 -.4 43 -2.2 18 — .1 .3 -.2 17 -4.0 -4.4 -4.7 41 6.7 5.9 Production expenses Current dollars 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.4 124.5 132.0 121.1 120.7 121.3 125.1 126.0 125.6 127.2 129.7 135.2 135.7 134.3 134.6 1982 dollars 3 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.2 32.3 38.0 47.0 45.6 35.1 43.5 49.2 47.2 41.5 49.9 47.5 52.3 39.8 42.9 63.4 68.9 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.9 29.1 33.4 40.0 37.7 30.7 37.8 42.4 40.3 35.3 42.0 39.8 43.3 32.7 34.8 50.9 54.7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $24.0 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $11.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 320 /^ \ 280 240 280 \ f * \ A ^\ y 200 \ 160 X y \ ^ \~^ y •"""*«.v PR 5FITS AFTER L X "X *«• «*"* — " . N "X / ; , » X. 120 -<"' 80 ' -. * . 80 TAX LIABILITY \ **\ " S** 40 I 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1985 ----i i i i i i 1986 \ 1981 "X ^**""*' \ UNDISTI IBUTED PROFI' s 1 200 160 y"" ' i 240 *•*" "* "~ " N_^.«- ^ 120 / r^l f* \ / PROFITS BEFORE TAX 1987 1 1 1 1 1 40 1 0 1989 1988 SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE \ COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984.. 1985 1986 1987 1988. 1982: 19831984: 19851986: 1987: 1988: ... IV IV IV IV IV IV I n m IV 1989: I np m 1 2 Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 208.7 238.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 30.5 29.8 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 178.2 208.4 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 76.6 98.4 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 41.1 40.1 237.1 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 255.8 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 211.8 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 29.9 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 181.9 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 84.5 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 41.2 164.1 231.5 226.1 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 225.7 235.8 239.0 252.2 27.7 29.7 31.6 30.1 198.0 206.1 207.3 222.1 94.6 98.2 95.1 105.5 42.2 37.3 39.2 41.8 288.8 305.3 279.7 275.5 266.0 233.1 231.8 222.9 29.3 28.6 18.4 203.9 203.2 204.5 96.5 90.3 34.1 36.9 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 3 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 235.0 234.1 276.2 314.4 318.8 318.0 296.0 272.0 Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 124.7 137.9 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 127.3 129.0 138.4 141.2 143.2 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 142.0 168.9 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 148.9 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.7 110.4 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 102.8 105.7 108.6 112.2 115.2 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 43.3 58.5 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 46.1 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.4 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -20.4 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 144.4 134.9 122.4 173.6 161.1 149.5 118.5 120.9 123.3 55.1 40.2 26.3 -38.3 -20.5 * 6.0 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Anal GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1989, nonresidentiaS fixed investment rose $6.8 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $2.3 billion. There was a $26.9 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $27.4 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 — 700 600 ^"•~~~ /^, / ^ ^ 1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT \ ^^ " ^ ^ 1 y -^ 400 -"' 700 —600 / — NONR ESIDENTIAL ^v 500 _ 500 ^~N/ --.--"" ^ ""-- ^jr — — "* -Y — « •*" — 400 ^*~ — RESIDENTIAL FIX ED INVESTMEN T , 300 300 \ J ^X--— • 200 200 — ^-- „•*-' 100 0 -100 —* — _.-**- / i i i '"""X 1 1 1 1981 1982 "••"--,^ ,,<'" \ \ \ 1 1 1 1984 1983 •4GE IN BUSINE NVENTORIES — -^ * -\N i t i I 100 s* .— s I ! 1986 1985 1 1 I 1987 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 0 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 -100 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential Total Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 .. 1986 1987 1988 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 652.5 670.6 719.6 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 435.2 444.3 487.2 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987- 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 749.7 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 660.9 686.3 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 435.8 458.6 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 472.7 487.1 493.2 495.8 769.6 775.0 779.0 742.0 747.6 752.1 503.1 512.5 519.3 IV IV IV IV IV IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I n m r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 139.0 133.8 140.3 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 133.7 138.9 137.1 139.9 142.0 142.5 144.7 142.4 145.5 Producers' durable equipment 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 296.2 310.5 346.8 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 302.2 319.7 335.6 347.2 351.3 353.3 358.5 370.1 373.8 Residential 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 217.3 226.4 232.4 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 225.1 227.7 226.1 232.1 233.2 238.4 238.8 235.1 232.8 Total Nonfarm 7.1 67.7 11.3 6.9 29.3 30.6 2.4 18.3 23.1 .4 60.5 14.6 8.6 30.5 34.2 -59.9 31.0 45.0 7.2 -12.2 63.3 51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 8.0 61.3 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 24.2 30.4 41.5 40.8 27.7 27.4 26.9 19.1 23.6 19.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department July-August survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 10.0 percent in 1989, folSowing a rise of 10.5 percent in 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 400 300 200 40 40 1989 1981 J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 4 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.67 430.76 473.65 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 166.32 181.90 1987- TTT IV 393.05 403.96 1988- I . n m IV 1989- I n 4 m4 . IV 1 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 317.17 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 291.75 Nondurable goods Total 1 Muling Transportation Public utilities 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.01 78.30 82.23 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 74.88 88.01 99.67 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 264.44 291.75 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.66 12.22 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.34 24.75 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.67 50.76 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.76 204.02 147.58 151.36 71.67 72.22 75.91 79.14 245.47 252.60 11.80 12.28 19.02 19.30 45.09 45.75 169.56 175.28 147.58 151.36 413.34 427.54 435.61 442.11 157.97 162.62 168.76 173.32 75.28 77.38 79.15 80.56 82.69 85.24 89.62 92.76 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 12.61 13.15 12.53 12.38 20.35 20.95 22.02 22.04 45.05 45.60 46.69 48.73 177.37 185.21 185.61 185.65 157 97 162.62 168.76 173.32 255.37 264.92 266.85 268.79 459.47 470.86 481.24 483.04 175.22 181.53 185.41 185.44 81.26 82.97 82.51 82.17 93.96 98.57 102.90 103.27 284.24 289.33 295.82 297.60 12.15 12.70 12.34 11.70 23.13 24.26 25.76 25.85 50.81 52.01 50.54 49.69 198.15 200.36 207.18 210.36 175.22 181.53 185.41 185.44 Surveyed annually» 245.47 252.60 284.24 289.33 295.82 297.60 Durable goods Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business z Commercial and other 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 483.48 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145,90 166.32 181.90 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1989, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In October, civilian employment rose 89,000 and unemployment fell 23,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 126 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 122 122 118 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 118 V 114 114 110 110 106 106 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 102 102 98 98 .• ** X* ^ ^ 12 12 8 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 4 4 ilniii 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 0 lil 1989 1988 '16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 186,801 186,949 187,098 1,687 1,705 1,696 123,778 124,215 124,259 117,260 117,652 117,705 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,573 115,947 116,009 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 187,995 188,149 188,286 188,428 188,580 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 1,666 1,666 1,688 1,702 1,709 125,124 124,865 124,948 125,343 125,283 125,768 125,622 125,706 125,742 125,814 118,407 118,537 118,820 118,797 118,888 119,207 119,125 119,285 119,158 119,254 123,428 123,181 123,264 123,659 123,610 124,102 123,956 124,018 124,040 124,105 116,711 116,853 117,136 117,113 117,215 117,541 117,459 117,597 117,456 117,545 3,300 3,223 3,206 3,104 3,112 3,096 3,219 3,307 3,257 3,217 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1988 1988: Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Civilian Labor force participation rate (per-2 cent) Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 Total 15 weeks and over 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 59.2 59.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 3,238 112,335 3,238 112,709 3,193 112,816 4,727 4,819 5,033 6,518 6,563 6,554 1,554 1,502 1,495 66.0 66.1 66.1 62.4 62.6 62.6 113,411 113,630 113,930 114,009 114,102 114,445 114,240 114,290 114,199 114,327 4,837 4,697 4,709 4,930 4,609 4,801 4,505 4,553 4,612 4,466 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 6,421 6,584 6,561 1,512 1,304 1,310 1,426 1,313 1,258 1,472 1,305 1,370 1,374 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 66.6 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.4 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.0 63.0 62.9 62.9 Agricultural Total 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Total Part time for economic reasons * 'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October, both the overall unemployment rate and the civilian unemployment rate were unchanged at 5.2 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT' (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 15 10 1989 1985 "UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period 1980 1981 . .. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Unemployment rate, all workers 1 All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 By sex and age By selected groups By race White Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 Both sexes 16-19 years Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 1988: Oct Nov Dec 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 15.0 14.1 14.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 9.8 10.0 10.0 11.2 11.2 11.6 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.1 3.3 3.1 7.9 7.7 8.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 16.4 14.8 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.6 14.7 14.5 15.1 14.9 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 10.3 9.6 9.5 10.1 10.3 12.0 11.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.9 10.9 11.1 11.6 11.8 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6 8.3 7.9 8.7 8.0 7.6 7.6 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 7.9 7.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.7 7.2 6.9 7.3 7.1 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 1 2 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons t 12 cent of potentially available labor force hours. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose, while the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemployment rose and the median fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 — 50 \ JOB LOSERS 40 40 30 - 30 20 20 REENTRANTS Xr JOB LEAVERS 10 10 — NEW ENTRANTS 1985 1989 1986 1985 1987 1988 1989 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Number of weeks Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) ' Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 . . 1986 1987 1988 1988- Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct 1 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,056 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 6,518 6,563 6,554 47.4 47.6 46.2 28.5 29.5 31.1 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.9 10.9 11.2 13.4 12.6 12.8 5.7 5.6 5.8 45.9 46.2 46.5 15.3 14.7 15.1 27.2 26.9 26.2 11.6 12 2 12.1 1,972 1,989 2,032 296 301 309 1,677 1,857 2,205 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 6,497 6,421 6,584 6,561 47.0 50.6 49.4 47.2 47.7 50.4 48.1 48.1 48.1 48.4 30.7 29.1 29.4 31.1 31.7 30.4 29.4 31.5 31.0 30.4 11.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.0 10.0 12.9 11.5 12.0 11.2 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 9.6 9.1 9.6 8.9 8.8 10.0 12.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.1 12.0 11.3 11.4 11.8 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.0 4.9 46.4 45.2 46.0 45.7 42.7 42.0 44.3 46.5 44.6 45.1 14.7 15.5 14.4 15.0 17.5 15.5 15.3 16.2 15.9 15.1 27.3 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.1 31.2 29.4 27.5 29.8 29.2 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 10.7 11.3 11.0 9.8 9.6 10.6 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 2,134 2,216 2,177 2,187 2,257 293 309 323 300 317 335 339 319 323 360 2,685 2,695 2,567 2,221 r l,957 r l,936 r 2,168 2,006 1,860 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Train ng Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 233,000 in October. MILL ONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) no . ' 28 ^r^\ 100 ' _f."'"' SERVICES ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS — > 1 24 90 . "" - ' ^.^ _..—••"""'" 80 -r" ,---'"""" „ —" - 20 SERV ICE-PRODUC:ING INDUSTRIES 70 — -" ' I 22 R ETAIL TRADE ^ — " - 18 16 60 " ^ T ,OVERNMEN1' ^. •* __-—' ^--~' T - ._x~ Tnfifiiiii fiHtrtnnT Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll i 50 20 40 - GOC3DS-PRODUC:ING INDUSTRIES 30 18 MAN1 JFACTUR1NG \ r—-_. r-*--" iimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiim Illllllllll IIIIlllllll V 6 Z- V —I 4 1 T"" 1 1 11 7985 ' 1986 ' 1988 1987 1985 1989 V~~~ r—i . ._. — ~ CO NSTRUCTO •• ipiiliun 20 Illllllllll 1986 Illllllllll 1987 'SEASONALLY ADJ USTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1988 1989 * COUNCIL OF EC ONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Total nonagricultural employment Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,584 25,658 25^497 23,813 23,334 24J27 24,859 24J558 24,708 25^249 4,346 4J188 3^905 3,948 4^383 4,673 4J816 4,967 5^125 20,285 20,170 18J781 18,434 19^378 19,260 18'965 19,024 19^403 12,187 12,109 11^039 10,732 1988: Oct 106,475 Nov.... 106,824 Dec 107,097 25,384 25,460 25,513 5,162 5,191 5,213 1989: 25,626 25,629 25,646 25,671 25,672 25,648 25,669 25,694 25,607 25,604 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,279 5,283 5,283 5,314 5,321 5,321 5,329 Jan 107,442 Feb 107,711 Mar 107,888 Apr 108,101 May.... 108,310 June . . .108,607 July.... 108,767 Aug '.. 108,887 Sept r.. 109,088 Oct "... 109,321 Nondurable goods Total 11,490 11^230 11,194 11J437 8 098 8,061 7^741 7,702 7373 7,770 7J734 7,830 7,967 64 748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69^769 72,660 74J967 77,492 80335 19,505 19,557 19,589 11,509 11,545 11,565 7,996 8,012 8,024 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,672 19,667 19,650 19,649 19,644 19,556 19,543 11,605 11,594 11,604 11,600 11,594 11,567 11,549 11,551 11,477 11,449 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,072 8,073 8,083 8,100 8,093 8,079 8,094 1 1,505 Transportation and public utilities 5,146 5,165 5J082 4,954 5,159 Wholesale trade 5,275 5,358 5^278 5,268 5^555 5,238 5^255 5,372 5^548 5,717 81,091 81,364 81,584 5,596 6,086 5,616 6,104 6,125 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,638 82,959 83,098 83,193 83,481 83,717 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,700 5,634 5,716 5,736 5,618 5,711 5,738 5^753 5,844 e'o29 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,206 6,222 6,230 6,237 6,256 6,264 6,270 Ketail trade 15,035 15|l89 15^179 15,613 16^545 17,356 17^930 18,483 19|llO Finance, insurance, and real estate 5,160 5^298 5341 5,468 5,'689 5,955 6^283 6,547 6^676 19,229 19,282 19,328 6,710 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,489 19,528 19,551 19,586 19,621 19,629 19,653 6,746 6,763 6,774 6,776 6,790 6,808 6,726 6,744 6,815 6,836 6,851 6,852 Government Services Total Federal 17,890 18^619 19^036 19,694 20J97 22,000 23^053 24,236 25^600 16,241 16,031 15337 15,869 16^024 16J394 16^693 17,010 17^372 2,866 2J772 2,739 2,774 2307 2,875 2399 2,943 2^971 25,986 26,111 26,230 17,484 17,525 17,523 2,986 2,983 2,981 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,651 26,711 26,931 26,973 27,058 27,123 27,207 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,626 17,687 17,723 17,751 17,804 17,903 17,997 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,982 2,999 2,995 3,000 2,999 3,016 3,004 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 14 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural 1 Period 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34,6 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May July Sept ' Ocf Total 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.3 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.1 40.8 Total private nonagricultural ' 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 Manufacturing $6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 9.43 9.42 9.45 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.61 9.60 9.62 9.69 9.69 9.74 9.81 Overtime $7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 10.29 10.30 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.42 10.45 10.48 10.52 10.5S 10.57 1 3 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for whan wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 2 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars Total private nonagricultural x Manufacturing Current dollars 1977 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 328.16 326.87 327.92 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.39 332.16 332.85 337.21 335.27 337.98 341.39 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 168.55 167.28 167.39 167.55 166.44 166.44 167.53 165.01 165.10 166.85 165.89 166.90 167.84 $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 423.95 424.36 422.71 424.56 426.21 426.40 429.52 427.22 428.45 429.68 431.32 433.61 431.26 $367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 493.08 499.66 503.04 497.07 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 494.17 498.17 511.30 510.73 509.78 514.37 $147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 186.30 185.60 187.11 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.44 187.56 188.43 190.97 189.22 189.50 191.98 Current dollars 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.7 3.9 4.0 :977 dollars -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 -1.0 9 1 -.9 5 g -1.2 8 -2.0 -1.6 .9 -.9 4 4 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Percent change from Index (June 1981 = 100) 12 months earlier 3 months earlier Period 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1986: Sept Dec 1987: Mar June Sept Dee 1988: Mar June Sept Dec 1989: Mar June Sept Total compensation . . Wages and salaries 94.7 104.0 110.7 117.0 122.7 127.5 131.6 136.0 142.6 95.4 103.8 110.3 115.8 120.6 125.6 129.5 133.8 139.3 130.8 131.6 128.8 129.5 132.9 133.8 135.1 136.0 130.8 131.7 133.0 133.8 138.1 139.8 141.2 142.6 135.1 136.6 137.9 139.3 144.4 146.1 147.9 140.8 142.2 143.9 Benefits Total compensation Wages and salaries 93.0 104.3 111.7 120.0 127.9 132.4 136.9 141.7 151.3 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 .6 .6 .7 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .5 .6 1.0 136.1 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.3 141.7 146.1 148.2 149.7 151.3 154.0 156.5 158.7 .7 .6 .7 .5 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 1.0 .6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 1 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 Total compensation Wages and salaries 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 9.8 9.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.9 9.0 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 11.8 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.8 1.0 .6 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 4.2 4.1 4.4 5.4 5.6 6.0 Benefits * 1.1 1.0 1.2 . Benefits * Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Output 1 Hours of all persons 2 Compensation per hour 3 Real compensation per hour 4 Nonfarm business sector Business sector 96.7 96.0 97.1 97.8 97.5 132.6 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.1 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 98.4 101.7 101.9 102.5 98.0 101.1 101.2 101.8 162.8 167.5 171.9 177.1 164.9 169.8 174.2 178.8 162.2 165.6 170.0 174.9 163.8 167.6 172.0 176.5 158.0 162.9 169.6 177.5 186.4 97.9 97.8 97.8 99.3 102.8 97.8 97.6 97.6 98.7 102.3 156.8 157.7 160.7 164.9 170.6 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 173.2 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 167.1 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 169.2 187.1 188.3 190.5 r 193.8 101.9 101.4 101.7 r 102.5 101.3 100.7 101.0 r 101.8 171.2 171.3 171.6 173.5 173.6 173.4 173.9 175.8 168.2 169.6 170.7 171.3 170.3 171.4 172.6 173.4 195.0 197.5 200.2 203.0 102.3 102.5 102.8 103.0 101.5 101.7 101.9 102.3 173.5 176.9 178.0 180.2 175.7 178.7 179.6 181.3 171.9 174.1 175.8 177.9 173.8 175.6 177.0 179.6 205.5 208.3 211.0 102.8 102.9 103.5 102.1 101.9 102.7 181.9 184.1 185.7 184.1 186.1 187.6 179.4 181.4 182.3 180.8 182.8 184.0 Nonfarm business sector 99.0 100.0 99.1 102.0 104.2 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.3 107.9 105.3 107.2 113.3 107.8 108.5 105.9 108.0 114.4 131.8 144.1 154.9 160.8 167.4 131.6 144.0 154.7 160.8 167.2 97.0 96.1 97.3 97.8 97.6 107.3 109.8 111.1 113.0 105.6 107.7 108.9 111.1 124.2 128.0 133.4 140.0 123.9 127.6 133.1 140.3 115.7 116.6 120.1 123.9 117.4 118.4 122.2 126.3 174.8 183.8 191.0 200.2 174.0 182.9 189.8 198.7 100.9 103.5 105.7 r 108.3 109.8 99.5 103.0 104.5 106.2 107.6 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 128.9 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 128.4 104.1 109.7 114.3 116.2 117.4 104.7 110.8 115.5 118.1 119.3 158.2 163.2 169.9 178.6 187.4 110.0 110.7 111.7 112.5 107.7 108.6 109.5 r l!0.2 130.4 132.2 134.4 136.7 130.0 132.0 134.1 136.4 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.5 1988: I II r. Ill r.... IV r.... 113.2 112.6 113.4 113.5 111.0 110.5 111.5 112.0 138.2 139.3 140.7 141.9 138.0 139.5 141.1 142.8 122.1 123.8 124.0 125.0 124.3 126.2 126.6 127.5 196.4 199.1 201.9 204.5 1989: I r II r. Ill ".... 113.8 114.2 114.6 111.6 111.9 112.5 143.6 144.4 145.4 143.6 144.6 145.7 126.2 126.4 126.9 128.6 129.2 129.5 206.9 210.4 212.8 08 .6 -2.4 1.8 5.7 07 .6 -2.4 2.0 6.0 10.5 9.3 7.5 3.8 4.1 10.5 9.5 7.4 4.0 3.9 -2.6 -.9 1.2 .6 2 Nonfarm business sector 1984 99.4 101.0 100.2 102.6 105.2 1985 1986 1987 1988 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Business sector Business sector Unit labor costs Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1980 1981 1982 1983 r 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV 1987: I II Ill IV T r 120.7 !21.5 122.4 123.7 r r r 188.3 189.5 191.8 195.1 r r Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates -0.3 1.5 -.7 2.4 2.6 -0.4 1.1 -.9 3.0 2.1 -1.1 2.1 g ^ 4.2 8.4 j2 L7 -3.3 5.0 8.3 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.1 2.0 4.2 3.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 3.0 4.4 5.4 2.2 .8 3.0 3.2 2.6 .9 3.2 3.4 4.4 5.2 3.9 4.8 4.1 5.1 3.7 4.7 .8 3.3 .2 .6 ^ .5 3.2 .1 .5 IV IV IV IV IV r.... 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.5 .8 2.0 1.6 .9 .8 .4 5 10.4 3.5 3.6 4.0 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 3.7 -3.0 6.8 2.0 2.1 3.2 -3.1 8.1 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.1 5.7 3.5 6.3 5.1 4.6 4.4 3.5 5.8 5.1 2.8 1.6 .0 2.1 2.2 1987: I ' II '. Ill r.... IV.... .5 2.6 3.8 2.8 .4 3.2 3.5 2.5 4.7 5.6 6.7 7.1 5.2 6.1 6.6 7.0 4.2 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.8 2.8 3.0 4.3 1.9 2.7 4.8 7.2 1.5 2.6 4.7 7.1 1988: I rT II . Ill r.... IV r .... 2.5 -2.1 3.1 .2 2.8 -1.6 3.3 1.9 4.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.8 1.9 5.5 .9 3.2 2.0 6.1 1.2 2.8 2.6 5.7 5.8 5.2 1989: I * II '. Ill ".... 1.1 1.6 1.2 -1.3 1.1 2.1 4.8 2.3 3.0 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.7 .6 1.7 3.7 1.7 1.0 4.8 6.8 4.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 r 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemplovcd. 4 ifourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. s Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 2 ifi -2.6 -.7 1.1 .7 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.3 .3 .0 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.3 2.0 4.8 4.2 2.6 2.8 2.6 5.0 4.7 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 1.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1.0 -3.3 -2.0 1.0 3.4 gg -2.1 1.0 3.4 1.4 .1 .9 4.3 1.1 -.6 1.2 4.5 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.0 1.7 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.9 -1.0 1.1 1.0 .7 -1.1 .8 .7 1.4 .1 8.0 2.6 5.0 -.3 7.1 2.0 3.8 1.5 5.1 4.1 4.8 1.0 4.3 3.2 5.9 4.9 5.6 5.3 -.6 .4 2.3 5 — .7 2.9 3.7 5.1 3.5 6.2 4.5 3.2 3.3 4.6 2.1 2.8 4.4 2.6 NOTE.—Data relate to al! persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent, changes based on indexes shown here. Beginning with data released August 3, 1989, hours of labor input are defined as hours at the work site rather than hours paid. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in October. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 240 FINAL PRODUCTS DEFENSE 220 AND SPACE PnillPMFNT 140 ---.\ _. 200 180 120 \ ^-" BUSINESS 160; ^ 100 160 140 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION "**• LI 1 1 '—S'^ _-—--' 140 --->p" 120 CONSUMER GOODS 120 100 Illllllllll Miiiliimlimilmiilitmliiiii MIMllllll PERCENT* 100 100 140 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE ~ (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 90 120 UTILITIES' 80 m- — — " 1 , ^~"~1 •—' - 100 MINING Illllllllll 1985 1986 1987 70 iiiiilinii 1985 1989 1988 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1989 1987 1988 1986 -SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977 = 100 Capacity utilization rate, percent l Industry production indexes, 1977=100 Total industrial production Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Durable Total Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 84.31 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 49.10 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 35.11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.8 143.9 5.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 1988: Oct Nov Dec 139.4 139.9 140.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 145.3 145.8 146.3 144.6 145.2 145.7 146.3 146.7 147.1 103.1 104.7 104.9 113.9 113.7 115.4 84.0 84.1 84.3 84.3 84.4 84.4 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 142.0 141.9 142.4 142.4 141.4 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 4.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.4 147.2 146.8 147.0 148.0 148.1 148.7 148.5 149.1 148.8 147.6 146.2 145.9 145.8 146.9 147.1 147.4 146.8 147.7 147.3 145.1 148.5 148.1 148.6 149.6 149.5 150.5 150.8 150.9 150.8 151.0 103.0 100.9 101.5 102.4 102.0 101.5 102.1 102.7 104.8 104.9 114.0 116.5 117.5 117.1 115.6 114.3 114.0 113.2 114.6 115.2 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.2 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.8 83.682.8 84.7 84.3 84.1 84.5 84.3 84.4 84.0 84.1 83.7 82.8 1977 proportion ... June July r Aue rr. Sept .... Oct" 1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve £ 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Intermediate products Final products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1977 proportion 44.77 25.52 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 . 1986 1987 1988 1988- Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr May 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144.3 146.4 146.8 147.7 148.2 148.6 148.9 150.2 150.4 151.2 150.2 150.9 150.8 148.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 136.4 136.8 138.2 138.5 138.7 138.4 139.5 139.2 139.9 138.7 139.1 138.9 138.5 July r Aug r Sept r. Oct p 1 Durable goods Nondurable goods 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 129.3 129.2 131.9 131.5 131.6 130.1 132.2 131.2 130.8 127.3 128.9 128.0 124.9 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 139.0 139.7 140.5 141.1 141.4 141.4 142.2 142.1 143.3 142.8 142.9 143.0 143.6 159.7 159.9 160.4 161.1 161.6 162.8 164.3 165.4 166.1 165.5 166.5 166.5 162.7 Total ' Business 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 160.2 161.2 162.6 163.8 165.0 166.3 167.8 169.1 169.6 168.5 169.7 169.4 165.9 Defense and space equipment 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 184.0 182.2 180.5 180.0 179.3 178.7 179.9 180.7 181.1 182.0 182.3 182.0 176.2 Total 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 154.0 154.2 155.0 156.6 155.1 156.1 156.5 156.3 157.0 157.5 157.2 157.7 158.2 Construction supplies 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 140.0 140.7 141.4 142.3 139.5 139.3 140.2 140.2 141.2 142.2 141.0 141.6 142.4 Business supplies Total Energy 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 165.9 165.7 166.7 168.8 168.4 170.4 170.4 170.0 170.4 170.6 171.0 171.5 42.28 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.8 101.5 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 127.5 128.3 128.3 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.2 127.9 127.7 128.3 128.9 128.9 128.2 101.3 102.3 102.6 100.5 100.5 101.0 101.7 101.1 99.1 99.1 99.9 102.1 102.2 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977 =±100; monthly data seasonally adjusted! Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May T * July r. Aug r Sept ' Oct " 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89.2 94.2 92.7 90.0 93.2 91.1 88.4 90.1 87.2 87.3 89.2 90.2 89.4 88 9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 83.1 80.8 77.6 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.0 73.2 72.9 75.4 75.9 75.4 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 122.6 124.6 125.1 124.5 124.5 123.8 123.1 124.8 125.2 125.4 125.4 125.0 124.5 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.7 170.8 173.8 175.4 177.8 178.7 180.8 183.0 184.7 186.5 187.5 186.7 187.3 188.0 186.8 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 183.0 182.2 180.9 180.9 181.7 181.6 182.2 181.6 181.9 181.4 183.8 183.3 181.2 products Apparel products 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 137.5 139.4 143.0 139.9 132.8 133.4 135.1 135.5 137.2 136.9 135.9 136.4 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 109.5 110.1 108.8 110.2 110.2 109.9 111.3 111.5 111.9 111.4 111.1 110.7 Lumber Total 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 134.8 135.2 136.8 136.7 136.4 134.8 136.4 135.5 134.2 131.3 133.2 131.6 122.9 Motor vehicles and parts 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 121.7 122.9 125.5 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.0 119.7 116.4 110.4 114.2 112.7 109.0 and Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 188.1 188.5 188.0 193.0 194.6 198.5 200.1 199.0 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 156.7 157.5 158.1 159.0 158.5 159.2 159.3 158.2 159.9 162.2 161.8 160.2 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 144.0 145.7 145.8 146.6 146.3 145.4 146.6 147.2 147.9 147.3 147.6 148.5 200.5 199.9 200.9 202.1 201 9 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1982 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 . . . 1986 1987 1988 253.0 252.8 261.3 248.0 282.4 329.6 356.6 387.0 397.7 409.7 201.3 194.3 204.7 194.3 228.7 271.9 292.6 315.3 320.1 328.7 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 1988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 411.5 411.1 415.4 425.0 329.8 331.4 332.8 336.3 198.3 200.8 202.0 202.5 ' 202.9 200.5 * 202.1 r 200.7 r 197.0 T 194.2 194.3 193.6 191.8 193.6 1979 1980 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 42.8 47.2 50.5 50.9 49.3 49.4 51.4 50.2 48.9 50.8 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.7 77.6 80.9 109 97 100 100 124 136 150 159 165 166 138.0 139.8 141.9 143.3 79.7 79.1 78.8 80.6 51.9 51.5 51.9 53.2 81.7 79.7 82.6 88.8 164 170 163 175 880 841 839 942 145.6 145.3 143.2 141.8 138.2 136.5 136.6 135.8 134.0 135.2 82.5 81.1 84.2 79.3 80.1 81.6 80.7 83.4 83.4 84.5 52.2 51.6 51.8 52.5 53.5 53.2 53.1 54.6 54.2 53.9 85.3 83.4 78.7 79.4 85.9 83.5 81.6 84.2 86.5 88.0 171 159 157 173 165 166 167 162 175 165 943 850 856 836 905 938 933 803 1,026 897 Annual rates Annual rates r July T . 3 Sept" Oct" 1 3 r 423.0 416.6 r 416.8 r 411.9 r 416.5 r 412.5 409.6 415.8 415.9 420.1 May 2 r r 1989- Jan Peb Mar 337.7 333.2 r 338.1 r r r 332.5 330.6 329.0 328.0 331.5 329.4 332.0 r Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 942 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, hy type of structure Total 1 unit 2-4 units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 5 or more units 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1988: Oct Nov Dec 1,532 1,567 1,577 1,136 1,138 1,141 63 68 65 333 361 371 1989: 1,678 1,465 1,409 1,343 1,308 1,406 1,420 1,329 1,268 1,420 1,199 1,029 981 1,029 977 972 1,026 990 961 1,027 66 62 50 62 42 55 57 56 59 73 413 374 378 252 289 379 337 283 248 320 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Units authorized Units completed Homes sold 3 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 397 337 275 253 301 353 346 357 365 366 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 718 650 669 353 364 366 7.3 700 621 555 607 653 647 742 719 618 369 375 377 377 380 377 370 367 367 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 750 671 676 1,526 1,508 1,518 1,516 1,429 1,539 1,486 1,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,308 1,281 1,328 1,319 1 356 1,537 1,610 1,459 1,552 1,442 1,355 r 1,372 1,429 1,296 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 Homes for sale at end of period 1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Jan Feb Mar Mav July Sept ' Oct" 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series begini ng 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 7.3 7.3 7.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In September, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent and inventories rose $1.2 billion. In October, according to advance data, retail sales declined 1.0 percent, following a rise of 0.7 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 800 ^ ~ - <-^l 700 200 — — 180 <~~~\ MANU •ACTURING &ND TRAD : INVENTOR ES 600 r^'~ 220 ^•"^ ' r-\ _^^ ^ — ^-1 RE 'AIL INVENT OKIES — ^^ 160 _„--./" 500 ^*" r'\" 1 A ANUFACTUF IN ^ A ^D TRADE S ^ES 400 _ x~" 140 *-*" •" - - l\r , < " " rRETAU SALts 120 ^-'- — - 100 Ulllllllll Ulllllllll 300 niiiliiiii niiiliiiii imilMiii RATIC3* 1.80 _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO - RETAIL . 1.60 rr^^y"* F^--V\A- — ^''~Jk — ' _ A— ^~^/\- - 1.40 200 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 \\\\\\\\\\\ iinilinu 1985 iniiiinn nnilnui 1986 1987 1988 ! 00 nillllllll 1989 1986 1985 1987 SEASONALLY ADJU STED s DURCE, DEPARTME NT OF COMMERCE 1989 Sales Sales 2 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Wholesale Period Inventories 3 1988 COUNCIL OF ECC NOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing and trade ' Sales 2 - Inventories 3 Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Manufacturing and trade * Retail Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 61,093 64,754 68,985 72,434 74,802 79,077 83,384 134,468 147,377 167,159 180,825 185,224 206,981 221,242 61,469 68,984 79,257 88,608 90,477 106,271 114,994 72 999 78393 87,902 92,217 94,747 100,710 106,248 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 84,233 84,918 85,599 85,035 219,153 216,724 218,093 221,242 114,172 111,689 112,904 114,994 104,981 105,035 105,189 106,248 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.62 1.57 1.56 1.59 86,225 86,357 86,630 87,512 88,404 88,484 88,902 88,984 r 90,001 90,067 222,584 224,185 224,693 226,656 230,423 231,762 232,831 235,350 237,673 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,093 118,835 119,542 119,864 121,782 123,670 106,880 108,016 108,700 109,563 111,588 112,220 112,967 113,568 114,003 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.54 1.50 1.51 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.63 1.62 1.62 1.63 Nondurable goods stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 348,747 368,813 407,869 418,151 423,700 449,536 485,756 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Sept r. Oct Nov Dec . 1989: Jan Feb Mar May June July Aug r Sept" Ocf 1 2 3 r 574,491 590,358 644,306 655,066 653,853 700,761 753,718 96,290 100,244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 128,1,96 130,334 142,380 146,745 152,447 162,648 178,313 491,565 499, 180 501,400 506,186 743,967 743,544 746,756 753,718 134,749 138,087 137,239 136,170 177,029 - 135,421 177,408 * 138,176 177,060 139,529 178,313 139,189 511,881 507,328 507,555 517,745 518,088 515,695 511,144 526,290 524,108 759,803 763,051 765,504 771,340 778,093 780,802 787,584 790,368 791,613 140,356 139,547 139,991 142,290 142,474 141,959 141,667 143,280 144,273 179,761 179,810 179,681 181,226 182,615 182,548 183,950 183,529 182,982 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. 20 28,013 32,574 37,819 41,387 44,861 47,707 52,379 89,107 97,328 106,805 113,821 119,663 126,785 135,763 T 140,040 139,428 139,516 141,413 142,543 142,500 143,555 144,860 145,904 144,466 r 51,188 53,258 53,930 54,154 53,815 53,071 52,886 53,901 54,139 54,016 54,653 55,876 r 55,903 54,399 4 r Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders fell. In October, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell. BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 — SHIPME NTS 440 — INVENT ORIES 400 360 ,- 200 K 280 TOTAL 160 TOTAL — "~ --— -— .^^ RABLE GOO DS 200 ux.-hv"r 120 80 iiiniiiiii llllll|ll|| Ilillllllll Ilillllllll Ilillllllll BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS1* (RATIO SCALE) ~~ -~ Ilillllllll Ilillllllll f\." ""~* ^ ^.__ _^ — ""* * r •'X"""*' INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 1986 1985 iiiniiiiii Illllllllil Illllllllll 1987 1988 - r—\ 1.80 1.40 60 imilmii iiiiiliini Ilillllllll 2.00 1.60 ENDURABLE 80 Ilillllllll 2.20 DURAE LE GOODS "^ Ilillllllll RATIO * TOTAL —- -v 80 ^ ' 160 ~~* "V" NONDURABLE GOODS 60 280 240 _ NEW OFJDFRS 120 DURABLE GOODS 120 60 s — 160 NOI JDURABLE G DODS 200 •^^^ ' =_——=r ^ 1.20 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ilillllllll \\ 1 1 1 li 1 1 1 1 1985 1989 1987 1986 1988 1 IIH \ ' ' " ' 1989 SEASONALLY ADJL STED s OURCE: DEPARTME NT OF COMMERC COUNCIL OF ECC NOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' new orders l Manufacturers' inventories 2 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Capital goods industries, nondefense 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 119,321 122,791 123,035 132,149 128,479 124,107 125,377 129,372 123,524 125,137 122,031 126,766 r 125,333 124,587 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 34,858 34,623 35,825 39,432 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,389 37,290 39,146 41,445 37,130 " 35,367 36,499 Total Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 103,348 104,304 105,118 106,737 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,535 110,229 110,020 108,416 110,027 109,450 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 453,103 457,281 460,802 468,860 473,450 476,403 481,366 487,231 487,913 491,834 496,359 495,002 495,854 Manufacturers' inventory — sbipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug ' Sept" Oct p 1 2 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 221,395 222,917 224,632 230,827 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,042 233,071 231,236 225,922 238,150 233,931 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 118,030 118,439 119,874 124,175 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,331 122,962 121,720 117,114 128,347 r 124,471 122 386 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 103,365 104,478 104,758 106,652 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,711 110,109 109,516 108,808 109,803 109,460 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 347,785 349,412 351,603 354,163 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,458 365,055 366,492 370,803 371,489 370,958 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 228,214 229,735 231,766 233,666 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,486 241,689 242,295 245,813 246,378 245,645 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 119,571 119,677 119,837 120,497 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,972 123,366 124,197 124,990 125,111 125,313 3 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 222,669 227,095 228,153 238,886 236,075 231,306 233,011 239,907 233,753 235,157 230,447 236,793 234,783 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.57 1.58 1.64 1.56 1.59 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In October, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.4 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 1.4 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.3 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 100 100 90 90 1981 1988 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Consumer goods Total Total Durable Total Foods and feeds l Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 85.8 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 Get Nov Dec 109.2 109.5 109.9 114.7 115.1 115.2 107.4 107.7 108.2 103.8 104.1 104.7 115.0 115.0 115.4 97.8 98.3 98.9 115.6 115.8 116.2 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.6 109.0 109.5 115.1 113.2 112.3 108.3 108.8 109.4 96.6 94.8 97.8 113.4 108.8 110.8 82.0 82.1 85.6 1989: Jan Feb Mar 111.1 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.1 114.2 113.5 113.1 114.1 114.6 116.7 117.8 118.8 118.1 119.1 118.4 118.3 118.7 118.0 119.6 109.3 110.1 110.5 111.4 112.5 112.7 111.9 111.3 112.9 112.9 106.0 107.1 107.5 109.0 110.1 110.2 109.1 108.0 109.7 110.0 116.3 116.9 117.0 116.3 117.2 117.7 117.1 117.5 119.1 118.7 100.4 101.6 102.2 104.4 105.7 105.6 104.3 102.6 104.4 105.0 116.9 117.4 117.5 117.4 118.2 118.8 118.7 119.0 120.2 119.8 109.5 110.6 111.2 112.0 113.1 112.9 112.1 111.5 112.5 113.2 110.8 111.3 111.9 112.5 112.7 112.4 112.2 111.9 112.3 112.3 115.2 114.8 116.7 114.9 113.6 112.0 113.6 113.4 113.6 112.7 110.5 111.1 111.7 112.4 112.6 112.5 112.1 111.8 112.2 112.3 101.8 101.5 103.7 104.5 104.9 103.2 103.2 101.2 102.3 102.3 113.3 111.7 115.2 112.1 112.1 109.7 108.2 110.0 109.1 108.4 90.2 90.7 92.1 95.1 95.8 94.7 95.4 91.3 93.5 94.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: May July Sept Oct 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 4.5 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 110 - CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS - 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 Minium 60 1981 1983 1982 1985 1984 Illllllllll 1986 60 1987 1989 1988 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] AH items T Transportation Housing All Shelter Not Period seasonally adjust- ed (NSA) Rel. imp.3.... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Oct Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May Aue Sept Oct Season- Rent- Food ers' Total ' ally adjust- Total ed 100.0 82 4 90.9 96 5 99 6 103 9 107.6 1096 113.6 1183 costs Medi- Fuel Home- owners' items less food, shel- Maintenance (Dec. 1982 = 100) costs and (Dec. 1982 = 100) repairs 7.9 19.7 Appar- and el and other utilities upkeep 7.6 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 6.4 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 17.2 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 4.3 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 6.0 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 7.3 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 48.7 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 Total 1 New cars Motor fuel cal care Bner- gy 2 energy (NSA) 16.2 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 42.3 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 27.8 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 ter, and 3.1 120.2 120.3 120.5 120.0 120.3 120.7 120.6 120.8 121.2 119.6 120.1 120.6 128.3 128.9 129.4 134.1 134.2 134.9 132.7 133.5 133.9 115.0 115.4 115.8 105.1 105.5 106.3 117.4 117.4 117.7 110.1 110.4 110.4 117.8 117.9 118.1 81.3 81.1 79.7 141.6 142.2 142.9 89.2 89.5 89.2 123.8 124.2 124.6 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.6 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 124.0 124.2 124.5 124.5 124.7 125.3 122.1 122.6 123.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 125.7 125.9 126.2 126.7 120.9 121.3 121.7 121.8 122.3 122.6 123.3 123.5 123.6 124.1 129.7 130.3 131.1 131.2 131.8 132.3 133.2 133.5 133.7 134.4 135.2 136.4 138.2 137.3 137.3 138.1 140.2 139.6 138.5 139.3 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.5 136.9 137.5 138.1 138.8 139.4 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 118.3 118.4 118.5 118.6 118.6 106.9 106.7 106.9 107.4 107.6 107.1 107.6 107.5 107.6 107.7 117.7 117.5 119.1 119.4 120.4 119.1 118.1 116.3 118.3 119.5 111.2 111.9 112.6 115.0 116.1 115.9 115.2 114.3 113.7 114.5 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.3 118.8 118.5 118.0 118.7 80.5 81.8 83.6 93.0 96.6 95.4 93.3 89.5 87.6 88.6 144.0 145.2 145.9 146.6 147.6 148.7 149.8 150.8 152.0 153.0 89.9 90.4 91.4 96.1 97.6 96.6 95.9 94.0 93.2 93.8 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 127.2 127.4 127.6 127.7 128.2 128.8 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1988. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986. 1987 1988 8.6 4.2 g '.s 3.5 .6 2.8 -.2 5.7 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 14.1 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 Change, month to month Oct Nov Dec 0.1 .3 .4 0.1 .3 .1 0.1 .3 .6 1989- Jan Feb Mar 1.1 .9 .4 .4 .9 .1 -.6 4 .9 1.3 .9 .8 -.6 .8 -.6 -.1 .3 -.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 .4 1.4 1.0 .1 -1.0 10 1.6 .3 1988: July r Sept * Oct .4 3.7 3.7 3.0 .2 .3 .6 .4 .1 j .7 .5 1 .3 1.0 -.3 6.5 5.4 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.9 4.6 3.9 1.7 4.0 3.9 4.3 7.6 7.1 5.6 2.2 2.3 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.0 3.3 4.0 7.1 9.8 10.2 7.4 7.3 5.8 1.4 -3.5 -.3 3.9 -0.1 7.2 9.7 13.1 4.9 4.5 -1.3 .7 -1.3 -1.3 4.5 8.8 12.0 11.1 11.8 11.7 10.4 .4 -7.4 -1.8 3.3 4.6 5.6 4.6 1.7 2.8 4.5 4.5 2.7 4.8 3.8 5.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 8.6 8.0 4.4 1.8 2.7 2.7 6.8 7.5 7.5 6.0 7.1 5.6 2.8 1.5 -1.3 2.6 5.3 7.1 7.5 10.3 11.9 10.8 5.9 1.7 4.1 1.8 4.6 4.8 3.1 3.1 4.2 4.5 3.1 2.7 4.6 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.1 5.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total ' Total ' Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New cars Total ' Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food, shelter, and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previquarter " From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 12.5 89 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 10.2 43 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 13.7 102 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 15.0 99 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 0.4 .3 .3 0.2 .2 .3 0.3 .4 .4 0.2 .5 .4 0.2 .1 .5 0.2 .6 .3 0.7 .4 .8 1.2 0 .3 0.4 .3 0 .6 .4 .5 .7 .6 _2 .2 0 .2 .5 .7 .4 .8 .5 .6 2 .3 2 .2 .4 _2 .3 .3 .1 .4 _2 .6 .2 .1 .4 2 .5 .6 .1 .5 .4 .2 .9 1.3 .2 .4 .3 .4 .7 .3 .4 .4 .5 .4 .6 2 .2 .5 .2 — .5 .5 -.1 .1 .1 0 -.2 1.4 .3 .8 -1.1 -.8 -1.5 1.7 1.0 .7 .6 .6 2.1 1.0 -.2 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 18.8 9.4 1.5 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.5 — 2.4 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 18.7 1.8 2.1 — 2.1 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 18.0 11.9 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 -0.9 _ 2 -1.7 0.6 .4 .5 -0.1 .3 -.3 0.7 .3 .3 .7 .3 .3 .1 __2 1.0 1.6 2.2 11.2 3.9 -1.2 -2.2 -4.1 -2.1 1.1 .8 .8 .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 .7 .8 .6 1.1 5.1 1.6 -1.0 -.7 -2.0 -.9 .6 .6 .3 .4 .2 .5 .2 .2 .1 .4 .5 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.7 0.1 .1 .2 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 7.4 6.8 Change, month to month 1988: 1989: 1 2 .1 .5 0 .6 1.5 -.4 -.8 .6 Includes hems not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 2 24 9 a -.4 -.3 -.4 .6 -.8 — .5 .7 3 4.4 5.4 6.4 2.6 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.1 5.7 4.0 1.6 1.6 2.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.3 3.6 3.3 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.5 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in November were 1.4 percent above their October level. Prices paid by farmers in October were unchanged from their July level. :ALE> INDE K, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SC .•»^"to— 180 _^ — 160 ~~*~ .^—J 140 > _ Vr 120 "^ .^~—~— — [—-—•«„-- /^r- 160 PRICES PAID —^ - _/ ^ \ ^Y — 180 " 1 Tl —v /• • ^ ^ ^ - . /"^ * 120 PRICES REC EIVED — 100 < 100 — — 80 80 iiniiiiiii Illllllllll 60., Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll nniliim Illllllllll 120 100 80 60 60 RA TIOJ/ 3J/ - RATK 140 140 — 140 120 - x_1 100 -S_ ^ v_ Illllllllll Illllllllll 1981 r—""--ir— \ H mill nun 1983 1982 /RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO NDEX OF PRICES PAI 1984 —- nun nun 1985 —~ nnniini Illllllllll llll|| || HI 1987 1988 80 60 1989 1 1986 ). COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Nov... Dec . 1989: Jan.... Peb Mar.... May... 3 T July... . Sept... Get .... Noy All farm products Livestock and products Crops 139 133 135 142 128 123 126 138 144 145 149 148 149 147 149 147 146 144 143 r !45 147 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 136 136 140 138 136 140 141 138 134 126 126 r !28 129 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the rece'ved/paid ratio is based on latest data available. 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 151 154 158 158 161 154 156 157 157 161 160 r !62 163 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates * Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 150 159 161 164 162 159 161 170 (3) (3) 175 (3) (3) 177 (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) 178 (3) 151 158 159 161 156 150 151 160 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 167 (3) Production items 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 157 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 164 (3) Eatio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 79 81 83 84 85 85 85 83 84 83 82 81 80 81 83 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In October, growth accelerated in Ml and M3, while growth in M2 slowed. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLIARS*'(RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,800 800 600 600 400 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS * AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Debt Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec . Dec Dec . Dec Dec . 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 790.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 '3,069.6 1,991.1 1,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.6 3,915.4 2,327.8 2,599.4 2,853.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 4,137.1 4,336.7 4,672.2 3,881.9 4,269.0 4,660.0 5,185.4 5,932.7 6,741.5 7,597.0 8,316.1 9,081.1 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 5.1 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 5.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 6.5 9.5 10.0 9.2 11.3 14.4 13.6 12.7 9.5 9.2 1988- Oct Nov. Dec 785.4 786.6 790.3 3,042.3 '3,059.5 '3,069.6 3,877.9 3,898.1 3,915.4 4,609.2 4,635.5 4,672.2 8,942.9 9,017.7 9,081.1 3.7 4.1 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.8 5.2 5.5 5.2 9.4 9.4 9.2 786.3 787.4 786.3 783.1 773.3 770.3 '777.1 '777.4 '781.1 787.7 3,065.8 3,069.4 '3,078.5 3,080.8 3,072.2 3,088.0 '3,117.4 '3,136.5 '3,156.0 3,176.6 3,920.2 '3,929.4 3,950.8 '3,958.7 3,954.8 3,973.5 '4,002.4 '4,009.0 '4,012.3 4,027.5 '4,676.2 4,689.4 4,724.4 4,750.1 4,746.1 '4,759.0 '4,793.3 '4,812.8 4,824.3 9,137.8 9,206.1 9,267.8 9,323.7 9,380.8 9,431.6 '9,482.3 '9,557.1 9,623.6 1.0 1.3 .7 -.6 -3.4 -5.0 -2.3 ' 2.5 '-1.3 1.2 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.5 .8 1.2 3.4 4.4 5.1 6.3 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.2 2.9 3.0 '4.2 '4.1 '3.1 3.5 8.9 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.9 '7.7 '7.8 7.8 Period 19801981: 1982: 19831984: 1985: 1986: 19871988: 1989: Jan.. Feb Mar .... May July Sept. Oct * 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinaneial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinaneial sectors (monthly average) l Ml r at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) NSA Large denomination time deposits J NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA Small denomination time deposits ' Savings deposits NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 1980- Dec 1981: Dec 1982- Dec 1983: Dec 1984- Dec 1985: Dec 1986- Dec 1987: Dec. . 1988: Dec 115.2 122.5 132.6 146.3 156.1 167.8 180.5 196.4 211.8 261.5 231.5 234.2 238.7 244.2 267.3 303.2 288.3 288.6 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 282.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.3 78.3 78.5 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 221.1 239.4 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.5 84.4 89.6 87.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 416.9 513.5 572.5 526.3 502.7 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 431.3 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 1,025.2 260.1 302.5 326.8 327.4 417.2 436.6 439.0 487.4 537.8 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.6 84.0 109.1 124.1 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 105.8 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 109.1 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 271.3 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 40.6 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.7 207.4 231.0 260.3 335.8 1988: Oct Nov Dec 209.7 210.5 211.8 288.9 287.7 288.6 279.4 281.0 282.3 76.1 75.7 78.5 231.3 237.4 239.4 84.6 87.4 87.6 507.5 506.7 502.7 429.2 431.8 431.3 1,009.7 1,017.8 1,025.2 532.0 125.4 534.4 ' 128.3 537.8 124.1 100.2 101.6 105.8 108.4 108.7 109.1 269.3 264.5 271.3 41.3 40.5 40.6 312.3 323.7 335.8 1989: Jan Feb Mar 213.4 214.3 215.6 215.9 216.4 217.4 218.0 218.4 219.3 219.7 284.0 284.8 284.3 281.4 278.2 275.0 T 278.8 277.5 277.3 280.4 281.3 280.9 279.1 278.5 271.4 270.7 r 273.2 274.4 277.3 280.3 81.8 79.0 77.4 74.5 73.5 76.0 r 77.6 74.9 72.2 73.3 241.7 247.2 255.5 259.3 259.0 265.1 274.6 285.5 294.8 301.5 89.3 89.6 87.6 87.7 91.6 95.1 98.2 100.6 99.1 98.7 495.2 485.3 480.3 471.3 457.0 456.9 459.8 465.4 469.1 473.0 427.8 424.6 420.8 412.8 404.7 402.0 401.5 402.3 404.2 405.8 1,035.7 1,048.3 1,061.0 1,083.1 r l , 105.7 r l , 118.5 r l , 126.3 1,132.1 1,132.6 1,132.0 544.4 ' 125.2 551.6 r 128.4 558.8 ' 130.9 567.7 128.8 572.1 ' 129.2 573.0 129.3 r 573.1 T 124.5 569.1 118.0 563.7 113.7 560.9 110.4 100.7 100.0 105.5 101.3 100.5 99.3 99.7 97.6 94.0 90.7 109.7 270.9 110.6 265.2 111.5 271.7 112.3 278.1 112.9 285.0 r 113.8 279.2 114.6 ' 283.0 115.2 290.5 115.7 306.9 40.6 39.9 41.2 41.4 41.1 41.1 42.0 42.7 41.3 334.9 344.2 349.2 359.5 352.3 351.4 351.3 355.3 348.0 May July Sept r Oct" 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers arc a component of money stock but are not shown here, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 19801981: 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit Dee Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 33,401 35,315 37,388 39,184 42,321 48,493 58,140 58,693 60,706 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,134 47,175 57,313 57,916 58,990 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,739 47,674 57,616 58,399 60,234 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,468 47,436 56,771 57,665 59,666 152,525 161,043 173,011 188,303 201,889 219,510 241,448 257,991 275,501 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 1988: Oct Nov Dec 60,862 60,853 60,706 58,562 57,991 58,990 60,343 60,314 60,234 59,800 59,733 59,666 273,659 274,380 275,501 2,299 2,861 1,716 332 186 130 1,781 2,322 1,244 1989- Jan Feb.. . Mar 60,370 60,260 59,854 59,463 58,740 58,350 58,698 58,753 59,223 59,621 58,708 58,773 58,041 57,174 57,019 56,860 58,004 58,078 58,530 59,066 59,754 59,822 59,376 58,880 58,217 57,776 58,110 58,120 58,552 59,087 59,226 59,106 58,896 58,686 57,709 57,445 57,733 57,869 58,285 58,602 276,784 277,553 278,615 278,675 278,329 279,056 279,983 280,288 282,025 282,681 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 1,490 694 675 693 555 76 97 139 213 345 4.31 497 490 452 330 1,046 1,050 1,334 1,707 1,197 917 106 41 22 21 May July . •> Sept '.. . Oct ' .. . Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.9 percent in October. Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.7 percent, following a decline of 0.1 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES - 120 120 lllllllllll 1981 1984 1983 1982 1985 )987 1986 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted i] All commercial banks Loans and leases Period Total securities 2 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct "..... 1,307.7 1,401.5 1,553.6 1,723.7 1,911.4 2,094.5 2,239.6 2,417.2 2,401.4 2,410.2 2,417.2 2,422.8 2,451.9 2,464.9 2,470.9 2,486.3 2,496.8 2,518.1 2,534.4 2,544.1 2,575.5 U.S. Government securities Other securities 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 309.6 335.5 361.4 355.6 358.8 361.4 360.4 361.8 368.8 370.7 373.5 373.8 374.4 376.6 378.8 391.7 160.9 165.7 170.6 142.6 181.4 196.5 195.3 194.0 196.8 195.9 194.0 189.6 190.4 189.7 187.2 186.4 185.8 184.6 182.8 182.9 182.7 Total 2 967.5 1,034.1 1,123.9 1,321.0 1,459.3 1,588.4 1,708.8 1,861.9 1,848.9 1,855.6 1,861.9 1,872.9 1,899.7 1,906.5 1,913.1 1,926.5 1,937.3 1,959.1 1,974.9 1,982.4 2,001.1 Commercial and industrial 355.4 392.6 414.1 472.9 499.7 536.2 562.7 601.9 601.6 601.8 601.9 606.6 619.0 617.8 620.6 626.3 624.9 632.1 637.3 636.9 641.1 Real estate Individual Security Nonbank financial institutions 284.1 299.8 330.8 376.3 425.8 494.0 589.0 672.0 659.8 665.3 672.0 678.9 685.6 691.8 699.5 705.5 712.0 719.9 729.0 734.4 741.1 182.5 188.2 212.9 253.8 294.8 315.9 329.5 355.5 351.6 353.0 355.5 357.9 358.9 360.6 362.9 365.4 366.0 367.0 369.3 372.1 374.4 21.5 25.4 28.1 34.3 42.7 40.1 34.4 38.5 38.5 38.2 38.5 37.7 44.7 43.6 40.0 38.1 41.3 40.5 39.9 40.6 42.3 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 35.0 31.9 30.0 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.7 29.2 r 28.7 r 30.3 r 31.4 r 31.8 32.1 33.3 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning "January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 2 Agricultural State and political subdivisions Foreign banks Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables Other 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.6 29.4 30.7 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 0.0 .0 3.3 46.0 56.7 58.4 52.5 46.8 48.5 47.7 46.8 44.4 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.7 44.5 44.2 43.9 43.5 42.9 18.1 14.8 13.4 11.1 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.6 7.6 8.1 7.6 7.8 8.5 8.2 8.3 9.4 9.3 8.9 9.3 8.5 9.8 7.2 5.9 9.4 7.9 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 19.0 22.3 24.5 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.3 30.3 31.0 31.6 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 36.3 39.4 42.1 44.8 47.5 47.0 44.8 44.4 42.7 45.2 42.9 r 43.3 r 44.1 r 49.9 r 49.5 r 48.6 50.5 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Capital expenditures a Credit market funds Period Total Internal * Total 323.7 323.2 377.4 303.0 419.2 495.0 457.3 510.7 486.2 508.4 1988: I n m TV 1989: I n* 126.1 123.1 137.9 60.7 133.5 158.7 105.0 165.8 133.6 135.8 60.3 70.7 91.8 50.3 78.3 95.1 50.9 123.0 69.0 77.0 369.1 367.2 372.4 381.6 138.6 141.1 156.2 107.2 485.0 512.5 1987 1988 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 344.9 352.6 372.6 507.7 508.3 528.6 488.8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Loans and short-term paper Securities and mortgages Total 361.9 369.0 123.1 143.5 Total Other 2 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 44.6 -9.1 -3.0 59.0 38.1 7.7 51.3 40.2 66.4 52.0 33.7 104.2 53.9 64.0 30.9 69.3 65.8 52.5 46.0 10.4 55.2 63.7 54.1 42.8 64.6 58.9 368.4 341.6 382.9 302.7 392.0 473.0 422.9 448.1 453.9 473.3 238.6 243.2 285.9 255.7 269.9 367.9 339.9 328.8 348.3 380.4 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 122.1 105.1 83.0 119.3 105.6 92.9 -44.6 -18.3 -5.6 .3 27.2 22.0 34.4 62.6 32.4 35.0 95.5 109.4 82.0 21.0 38.2 28.1 38.7 743 57.3 81.3 43.3 95.3 43.0 31.8 74.2 86.2 470.9 474.0 500.9 447.7 359.2 380.7 390.1 391.8 111.7 93.3 110.8 55.9 36.7 34.3 27.8 41.1 31.8 115.5 522 20.5 84.0 95.0 91.4 28.0 445.6 473.2 376.0 388.8 69.6 84.4 39.5 39.3 9.0 30.5 25.4 1n 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 FLant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding l Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period 19801981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 19861987: 19881988: Dec Dec. Dec Dec Dec Dec. .. . Dec Dec Dec Sept .. .. Oct Nov Dec NEW SERIES: 1989- Jan Feb. Mar Apr Mav June July Augr Sept " 1 , , , , , Other Total Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other Revolving 297 566 310682 323536 367868 442538 517 755 572 047 607721 659 507 646556 649 132 654413 659 507 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 279,243 278,902 279,926 281,174 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 168,273 170,131 173,030 174,792 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 26,185 26,033 26,005 25,744 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 172,855 174,066 175,452 177,798 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 1,890 2,576 5,281 5,094 -539 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 342 -341 1,024 1,248 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 1,148 1,858 2,899 1,762 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 643 -92 152 -28 261 329 -1,529 344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1 ,095 1,108 16,323 1,176 1,211 1,386 2,346 682 020 687 397 691 162 693911 698 132 700849 700 344 703001 703 607 286,382 288,767 288,850 289,654 290,74 1 290,192 288,526 288,533 287,691 176,716 178,570 182,831 184,500 186,502 189,622 191,028 194,398 195,153 26,036 25,992 24,168 23,993 23,952 23,685 23,630 22,938 22,846 192,886 194,068 195,314 195,763 196,936 197,349 197,161 197,132 197,916 (2) 5,377 3,765 2,749 4,221 2,717 505 2,657 606 (2) 2,385 82 804 1,087 -549 1 667 7 842 (2) 1,854 4,261 1,670 2,002 3,120 1,406 3,370 756 (2) -44 1 824 -174 41 -267 -56 692 (2) 1,182 1,246 449 1,173 413 -189 29 -91 785 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding mouth. 2 Because of break in series, net change not available. MabQe home Automobile Total Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in November. PERCENT PER ANNU PERCENT PER ANNUM -S- iQURCE. SEE TABLE B COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Nov Dee 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May. June July Aug Sept . Oct Nov Week ended: 1989: Nov 4 11 18 25 Dec 2 p 1 3-month bills (new issues) 1 Constant maturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) 30 Prime commercial paper, 6 months * Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. 5 Bank) Prime rate charged 5 by banks New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 9.32 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 7.68 8.09 8.29 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 7.92 7.91 7.72 7.59 7.67 8.72 9.11 8.96 9.11 7.58 7.66 10.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 9.09 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.28 8.02 8.11 8.19 8.01 7.87 7.41 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 6.97 7.08 7.27 7.22 7.13 8.55 8.97 9.02 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.80 8.35 8.32 8.50 8.24 8.00 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 9.20 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.37 7.83 8.13 8.26 8.02 7.80 9.45 9.57 9.62 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.10 8.93 8.96 9.01 8.92 8.89 6.50-6.50 6 50 7 00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 10.50-10.50 10.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 9.43 9.39 9.52 9.82 9.99 10.17 10.18 10.42 10.48 10.22 r 10.24 10.11 7.78 7.67 7.68 7.61 7.63 7.92 7.89 7.74 7.69 7.76 7.92 7.92 7.86 7.83 7.85 7.25 7.21 7.10 7.08 7.00 8.91 8.90 8.86 8.89 8.90 8.12 8.07 7.98 7.94 7.90 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7 00 7 00 7.00- 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50- Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in November. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 ^41. rOMPOSITF STOCK PRICE NinFY ~ (NYSE) ,—' 180 160 S \ 140 \ 120 ^ - ^/ 16C 140 ^"^ ^ 120 / 100 80 22C 20C 18C 100 N x / 1 ^^/— 80 ^n 60 ^J 60 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 40 1981 1983 1982 1984 1985 1986 40 1987 1988 1989 PERCENT PERC ENT 20 15 10 NGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMW r^\^- (S&P1 \ ^~~~ . ' ,-!_r ^ 1 0 1 I i ii 1 1982 1981 1 1983 1 1 1 1 1984 j ^ 5 1 1 1 1 1985 1 ! 1986 ^ 1 1 1 1987 • 1 1 1 1988 Common stock prices 1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Aug Sept Oct Nov Week ended: 1989: Nov 4 11 18 25 Dec 2".... Industrial Transportation n 1 Common stock5 yields (percent) O) 2 New York Stock Exchange indexes 0 Composite 1 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD 6. POOR'S CORPORATION Period 1 Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 152.67 155.35 183.79 187.75 138.60 144.07 73.83 74.81 129.61 128.83 2,099.04 2,148.58 271.02 276.51 160.40 165.08 164.60 169.38 175.30 180.76 185.15 192.93 193.02 192.49 188.50 194.62 200.00 199.20 204.81 211.51 216.75 221.74 231.32 230.86 229.40 224.38 153.09 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.88 173.47 179.32 197.52 202.02 190.36 174.26 75.87 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.95 90.40 92.90 93.44 94.67 94.95 132.26 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.60 154.08 157.78 164.86 165.51 166.55 160.89 2,234.68 2,304.30 2,283.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,494.90 2,554.03 2,691.11 2,693.41 2,692.01 2,642.49 285.41 294.01 292.71 302.25 313.93 323.73 331.93 346.61 347.33 347.40 340.22 3.70 3.68 3.64 3.59 3.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.38 3.28 3.29 3.29 3.39 187.52 186.53 188.50 188.90 191.54 223.07 221.59 224.23 225.07 228.64 175.11 173.44 174.84 172.98 175.81 94.18 94.28 95.09 94.98 96.37 160.93 160.07 161.14 160.95 161.31 2,631.11 2,606.39 2,631.52 2,650.92 2,707.94 338.55 336.25 340.05 341.21 346.32 Earningsprice ratio 3.38 3.41 3.39 3.39 3.37 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 8.56 8.46 7.93 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. * Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, I nd Standard & Poor's Cor- FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal 1990, there was a deficit of $26.1 billion, compared with a deficit of $27.0 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,200 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 RECEIPTS^/ 700 700 600 600 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT Mi/ 0 -100 ""---\ -200 ^^^ "\^ A/ * 1981 i ^-^ i 1982 i . 1983 i 1984 i 1985 i 1986 i i 1987 1988 i 1989 \IN 1990 -200 N FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Or THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 i 1990 (estimates)2 First month: 1 Fiscal year 1989 Fiscal year 1990 1 2 Outlays Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Gross Federal debt (end of period) Total Held by the public 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.7 14 7 -53.6 59 2 -40.2 73 8 -78.9 127 9 -207.8 185 3 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 -72.7 -73.9 120 0 -208.0 -185.6 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -3.2 14 -3.9 43 -2.0 1i -5.0 79 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.8 1,080.1 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,142.9 1,179.4 212 3 -221.2 149 7 -155.1 -152.1 -99.2 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.1 793.3 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 931.6 957.1 -221.6 -237.9 -169.3 193 9 -204.5 163 8 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 286.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 211.2 222.3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.4 64.5 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,865.7 3,084.8 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,188.8 2,279.2 63.6 68.4 90.6 94.5 -27.0 26 1 45.8 50.1 73.4 75.1 -27.7 -25.0 17.8 18.3 17.1 19.4 .7 11 2,623.2 2,905.1 2,060.8 2,221.3 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 18, >/ • 1989. Data include asset sales. 32 Off-budget On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United Slates Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal 1990, receipts were $4.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $3.9 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS!' 400 INDIVIDUAMNfOMF TAXES , ' .-• 300 400 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES _ V OTHER RECEIPTS 100 ' . I 0 i • i i i i i i 200 . 100 i 0 900 900 OUTLAYS-!/ 800 -NONDEFENSE 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 . NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 - 200 200 1981 1984 1983 1982 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 FISCAL YEARS _!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts National defense Social Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 . 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes ance taxes and contributions 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 600.6 666.5 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 734.1 769.1 854.1 334.5 349.0 392.6 909.0 990.8 1,080.1 401.2 445.7 484.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 117.0 63.6 68.4 31.3 35.5 1.8 .7 599.3 617.8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 ' 1990 (estimates) 2 Other Total Total Department of Defense, military Net interest 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 97.1 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.8 145.4 188.6 198.8 249.1 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.3 176.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 157.7 142.4 5.6 7.7 8.9 9.7 18.4 19.5 13.0 14.1 12.7 17.0 Health Medicare 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 56.4 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 209.9 227.4 204.4 220.9 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 387.5 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.4 91.0 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,142.9 1,179.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 296.3 245.2 265.5 274.0 294.9 286.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 16.4 23.8 24.3 6.7 7.9 25.9 19.9 25.2 19.2 2.2 2.1 281.9 Social security Other ty International affairs Income securi- 207.4 219.3 232.5 l First month: Fiscal year 1989 Fiscal year 1990 1 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement, See footnote 2, page 32. NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 90.6 94.5 4.0 4.5 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS in the third quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates. Federal receipts fell $10.1 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures fell $8.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 - EXPENDITURES - 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 -200 -200 1981 1982 1983 1985 1984 1987 1986 1988 1989 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984- IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987: ffl IV 1988- I n m IV 1989: I n m' Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 776.8 815.2 897.3 958.6 340.4 357.0 401.2 408.0 74.6 81.1 97.7 108.3 55.9 50.9 53.4 55.8 962.3 305.8 326.1 1,028.0 345.0 1,060.4 386.4 1,104.0 341.5 368.6 375.5 378.6 374.0 394.6 411.2 432.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.6 128.3 134.6 138.8 149.0 20.7 22.8 31.9 35.1 -0.1 .0 -185.5 -212.8 -163.1 -145.4 788.7 827.9 911.4 972.4 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 921.5 937.4 346.4 361.4 405.8 413.0 55.1 50.5 53.8 56.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 53.8 54.5 310.9 332.1 350.8 391.3 236.1 259.8 290.7 317.7 337.9 352.2 359.7 985.6 1,034.8 1,072.8 1,118.3 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 1,065.5 1,101.7 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 384.5 388.1 380.1 399.9 414.3 438.2 347.4 352.5 362.1 385.8 405.8 414.3 421.9 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.4 -.2 .0 .0 .0 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 101.7 102.2 130.1 135.6 141.7 151.4 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 142.5 147.3 20.3 26.0 32.6 36.0 303.0 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 408.1 420.0 76.3 83.8 101.0 111.4 46.4 70.2 69.7 78.8 88.9 107.4 103.1 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 22.7 41.9 .2 -.2 -196.9 -206.9 161 4 -145.8 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 -212.2 -189.0 - 143.9 -164.4 944.7 973.2 977.3 994.6 1,036.2 1,053.2 1,043.1 402.7 417.5 411.4 420.3 446.8 465.1 459.1 104.2 111.6 114.0 115.8 117.0 109.7 99.7 55.9 55.9 57.4 57.8 58.0 58.2 59.4 382.0 388.2 394.5 400.6 414.3 420.2 424.8 1,096.5 1,114.7 1,099.8 1,162.1 1,183.7 1,198.6 1,190.5 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 399.0 406.0 403.3 433.0 434.4 438.0 447.6 460.4 466.9 473.6 110.1 112.2 111.0 112.2 118.7 118.4 118.3 144.9 149.9 153.9 157.0 167.0 172.0 173.3 34.4 41.2 29.4 38.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 38.5 35.3 22.0 .0 .0 .0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 .1 -.1 -151.8 -141.5 -122.5 -167.6 -147.5 - 145.4 -147.4 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100) Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted) Period Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom United States ' Canada Japan France Germany 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 104.8 106.9 96.5 102.7 115.2 121.6 121.5 128.3 136.3 119.0 120.3 120.7 124.5 136.1 141.0 140.8 145.7 159.1 107.2 106.1 105.0 105.0 106.1 106.1 107.2 109.4 114.3 108.0 105.9 102.7 103.3 106.2 111.0 113.0 113.7 118.1 114.8 113.0 109.5 105.9 109.5 110.7 114.7 119.3 126.4 99.8 96.7 98.5 102.2 102.4 107.9 110.2 114.1 118.2 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 76.1 85.6 94.9 100.4 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 90.9 95.4 98.0 99.9 102.1 104.2 104.9 105.0 105.7 72.2 81.8 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 124.3 86.7 92.2 97.1 100.3 102.7 104.9 104.7 105.0 106.2 63.2 75.4 87.7 100.8 111.5 121.1 128.5 134.4 141.1 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 138.0 136.9 136.2 137.1 161.6 160.2 165.0 166.1 117.2 113.2 118.0 117.3 120.0 119.4 119.1 121.2 124.1 127.6 129.1 132.2 119.6 118.7 119.3 118.3 119.8 120.2 129.3 120.5 124.2 124.8 125.1 125.1 106.4 106.9 106.5 106.2 125.3 125.6 125.8 126.0 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 142.2 143.3 144.5 145.0 127.4 128.7 129.2 129.6 121.2 120.5 121.3 124.3 118.6 123.6 ' 125.0 r 125.1 1243 127.9 130.3 126.9 127.0 125.3 r 128.9 130.7 128.9 118.4 117.9 118.1 117.8 116.3 116.4 118.1 119.8 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.6 125.7 126.6 127.2 127.6 128.9 129.6 130.4 130.5 130.7 131.2 106.0 105.7 106.2 108.1 108.7 108.6 108.4 108.3 109.2 126.5 126.8 127.2 128.0 128.5 128.7 129.0 129.2 129.5 108.1 108.4 108.6 109.2 109.5 109.6 109.5 109.4 109.6 146.1 147.3 148.0 149.0 149.6 150.3 150.7 150.9 151.6 153.1 130.4 131.4 131.9 134.3 135.1 135.6 135.7 136.1 137.0 138.1 1988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 1989: Jan... Feb Mar 1 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.7 141.6 142.0 r 141.9 142.4 r !424 141 4 Z. • T July , ' Sept. .. . Ocf 1 United Kingdom United States 118.2 136.7 167.3 137.4 117.4 164.5 137.0 172.5 116.6 138.0 166.3 ' 120.3 r 118.1 138.3 167.3 ' 137.7 170.7 r!20.1 138.0 167.6 121.3 137.9 ' 171.4 121.3 1685 Italy Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). Data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) l 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Foods, feeds, and beverages 116.4 205.6 224.0 4 218.8 4 227.2 254.1 322.4 Period Industrial supplies and materials 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24,3 32.3 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 Total8 Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category Principal end-use commodity category Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other 2 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 20.7 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 244.0 258.0 325.7 345.3 365.4 406.2 441.0 Total Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 6.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) 275 -38.4 -64.2 -122.4 -126.5 -133.6 138.3 -155.1 -152.1 -170.3 118.5 -137.1 -52.4 101 7 1988: Sept Oct Nov Dec 27.6 27.9 27.5 28.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 3.6 4.4 4.0 3.6 36.8 37.1 38.1 39.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 9.3 9.9 9.8 10.2 8.7 8.2 9.1 9.1 7.6 7.7 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.3 9.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 38.2 38.6 39.6 41.3 -9.2 -9.2 -10.5 -10.8 -10.6 -10.7 -12.1 -12.5 1989: Jan.... Feb Mar 29.0 28.8 30.1 30.8 30.5 31.3 30.5 30.6 31.1 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 7.1 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.8 9.4 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.6 11.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.8 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.0 3.7 37.9 38.2 39.5 39.0 40.5 39.3 38.7 40.7 39.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 10.7 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.4 10.4 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.9 9.5 9.1 10.2 9.4 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.0 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 39.5 39.7 41.2 40.7 42.2 40.9 40.4 42.4 40.7 -8.9 -9.4 -9.5 -8.3 -10.1 -8.0 -8.2 -10.1 -7.9 -10.5 -10.9 -11.2 -9.9 -11.7 -9.6 -9.9 -11.9 -9.6 May July ' . 3 Sept 1 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance 2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit 4 Program grant-aid shipments. shipments. Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical month basis. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1989, the merchandise trade deficit rose slightly to $27.8 billion, from $27.6 billion (revised) in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLL>«s* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 5 5 N ^"" *. 0 ^/\ \ . Vi v A\ -A\ 1 0 —x -5 \\ -10 \\\ -15 -15 \\ N BALANCE ON GOODS AND SFRVirFS .. \ -20 20 N i. V--^ *'**•'* \ ^^i^\>-^V V~^X D\ Ir^^^ -35 30 35 \.,.*'\ N/'X1"-.1/ •' BALANCE ON » V /I >x \ Y _< CURRENT ACCOUNT MERCHANDISE TRADE V.V-J / BALANCE -40 -45 /K A>^" 1 1 1 1 1 1 1981 1982 1 1 1 1983 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 I I I 40 -45 1989 * SEASONALLY ADJUS TED SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Investment income 3 Merchandise * 2 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: HI IV 1987' I n m IV 1988- I n m IV 1989: I 1 2 3 Exports Imports 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 215,935 223,367 250,266 319,251 56,182 56,490 57,255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 78,471 80,604 83,729 87,919 r 91,423 91,569 -249,749 -265,063 -247,642 -268,900 -332,422 -338,083 -368,425 -409,766 -446,466 -92,983 -95,081 -95,916 -99,834 - 104,903 -109,113 -109,893 - 109,882 -110,943 -115,748 -116,297 r - 118,977 -119,320 Net balance Receipts -25,480 72,506 27978 86,412 -36,444 83,548 -67,080 77,251 -112,522 85,908 -122,148 88,832 -145,058 88,615 -159,500 104,703 -127,215 107,775 -36,801 21,744 -38,591 20,822 -38,661 25,117 -39,819 22,744 -40,606 23,578 —40,414 33,265 -33,446 26,750 -31,411 23,148 -30,339 24,720 -32,019 33,159 -28,378 26,830 T - 27,554 26,932 -27,751 Payments Net -42,119 52 329 -54,884 52376 -67,419 62901 -66,968 -82,420 105 548 -15,729 -16,350 -19,755 -20,554 -21,904 -20,207 -23,955 -25,613 -27,310 -28,670 -29,246 -31,947 30,387 34,083 28,664 24,875 18,489 25,931 21,647 22,283 2,227 6,015 4,472 5,362 2,190 1,674 13,058 2,795 -2,465 -2,590 4,489 -2,416 -5,015 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net military transactions -2,577 -1,523 -474 -343 -2,099 -3,557 -4,576 -2,857 -4,606 -1,089 -777 -176 -210 - ,031 - ,440 -964 - ,033 - ,006 - ,604 -1,498 -1,630 Net travel and transportation receipts -997 144 -992 -4,227 -7,885 -9,832 -8,031 -7,324 -2,633 -1,874 -2,241 -1,965 -2,088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 -297 512 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account 7,794 9,126 -7,593 1,533 15,810 11,085 -7,647 8,163 2,191 -9,188 11,436 -6,997 12,264 -34,510 -9,776 44 286 12,299 -91,718 - 12,468 -104,186 12,351 -97,256 -15,426 112 682 18,547 -117,470 -15,778 - 133,249 17,909 -129,488 -14,212 143 700 20,335 — 111,892 - 14,656 -126,548 4,539 -29,210 -4,376 -33,586 4,807 -32,330 -4,136 -36,466 4,250 -31,190 -3,137 34 327 4,372 -35,555 -3,265 -38,820 4,555 -36,687 -3,225 -39,912 4,734 -26,055 -4,586 -30,641 -28,682 4,787 -3,364 -32,046 5,042 -30,586 -2,899 -33,485 5,126 -28,964 -3,376 -32,340 -23,659 5,381 -5,018 -28,677 5,725 -26,864 -3,526 -30,390 -27,894 -3,094 5,957 -30,988 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $28.5 billion in the second quarter of 1989, compared with an increase of $22.1 billion in the first quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, decreased $22.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $13.3 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow (+)]2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow (— )] Period Total 1980 1981 1982... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: HI IV 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I p n .... -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,304 -32,628 -99,665 -76,218 -82,110 -26,078 -33,422 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 4,540 — 16,119 -37,886 -32,648 -31,318 7,476 U.S. official reserve2 assets l -8,155 5 175 -4,965 1 196 -3,131 -3,858 312 9,149 -3,566 280 132 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 1,503 39 7 380 2,272 -4,000 -12,095 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets -5,162 -72,802 5 097 100 679 -6,131 -110,058 5 006 -43,576 -5,489 -13,685 2 821 25 950 -2,024 -97,954 997 86 363 2,999 -81,543 1 565 -24,793 11 -33,565 40 6,763 195 25 856 308 -26,316 843 -40,955 - 1,490 4,528 15 273 -885 1,961 -32,467 3,413 -38,332 1,049 -28,367 19,943 -372 Total 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 69,927 62,339 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 27,027 65,334 46,179 80,759 60,007 -3,117 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Other foreign assets 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 1 083 35,594 45,193 38,882 15,785 1,251 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 24,631 5,895 -2,234 10,589 7,478 -4,948 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 54,142 61,088 19,341 40,805 72,822 39,879 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 52,529 1,831 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDEs) 1,152 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 25,322 18,663 34,404 9,194 23,869 15,298 11,308 1,878 -10,641 -10,263 7,549 -7,813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 479 -15,729 24,047 19434 1,702 26,629 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy -4,669 4,463 3,895 -2,559 -4,501 3,166 3,843 -3,714 -4,556 4,431 4,127 -2,340 U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 48,087 48,511 48,824 45,140 45,070 45,798 43,186 41,028 47,788 47,802 49,854 60,502 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector .• 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities ; Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: * Preliminary. ' Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1989 0—24-349