Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1948
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Congress, 2d Session
...
••
4
"'
Joint Committee Print
Economic Indicators
NOVEMBER 1948
Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the joint Committee on the Economic Report
*'
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1948
X
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. . While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in 'the. executive offices, the Council has made it
c t6 T the Joint Committee.
^ JMcttibfrrif of Congress have also expressed an
interest ifr being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through vol u m i n o u s and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and repres e n t . u i v e s of the press and radio have indicated their
d e s i r e lor t h i s information. Since nothing contained
in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
several months provided the Congress and the public
with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators.
The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
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print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.
Chairman^ Joint Committee on the Economic
Letter o£ Transmitted
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
^
/
Chairman.
Vice Chairman.
ft
111
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
29
30
31
IV
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Preliminary 3rd quarter estimates of the Nation's Economic Budget indicate that the total increased about 3
percent above the level for 1st half of this year, chiefly as a result of price rises. The government surplus was
greatly reduced as Federal receipts from personal income taxes declined.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
1948, FIRST HALF
1948, THIRD QUARTER (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS(+)
T
0
+
77\ CONSUMER
YA
SAVING
1948, FIRST HALF
CONSUMERS
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
1948, THIRD QUARTER
CONSUMERS
^CONSUMER
j SAVING
179.0
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL)
59.7
S££ MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET.
CASH
SURPLUS
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
In September consumers' prices, for the first time since April, did not advance. Declines in
foods offset rises in other consumers1 prices.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
1940
1939
1941
1943
1942
1944
1945
1947
1946
* ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY^ ICE,\ AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER
[1935-39=100]
All items l
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
_
» _ _ _
.
1947: August __
September
October
November
December.
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
1
_ __
. __
Food
' Clothing
99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
160. 3
163. 8
163. 8
164. 9
167. 0
196. 5
203. 5
201. 6
202. 7
206. 9
185. 9
187. 6
189. 0
190 2
191. 2
111. 2
113. 6
114. 9
115 2
115. 4
168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
209. 7
204. 7
202. 3
207.9
210.9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215.2
192. 1
195. 1
196. 3
196. 4
197. 5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201.0
115. 9
116. 0
116. 3
116. 3
116.7
117. 0
117. 3
117 7
118. 5
Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Rent
WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices fell sharply in early October as a result of reductions in prices of farm
products and foods. Since then they have shown a slightly rising tendency. Industrial
prices have been steady.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
200
200
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1926=100]
All commodities
Week ended—•
1946: Jan. 5—
June 29
Sept. 28
Dec. 28
1947: Mar. 29
June 28
Sept. 27
Dec. 27
1948: Jan. 17.__
Feb. 14
Mar. 27
Apr. 24
May 29
June 26
July 31
Aug. 28
Sept.
4
P
11
18
25
Oct. 2
9
16
23
30 1
1
__
_ _ .-.
. .
_
_ ._
,_
_
_>
._ _
__ __
..-.
_
__ _
..
'
"'
_ ___
._
Data received after chart was prepared.
Source: Department of Labor.
__
_
106. 8
112. 7
124. 4
139. 6
149. 4
147 6
156. 2
163. 0
165. 5
159. 7
161. 1
163 6
164.4
166. 7
168. 3
168 4
167.4
168. 0
169. 2
168. 7
167. 1
164. 6
164. 8
165. 3
163. 8
Farm
products
131. 3
140. 3
' 156. 6
167. 7
183. 8
179. 0
184. 7
197.0
201.5
180. 9
186.2
188. 9
193.0
198. 4
192. 2
189. 3
187.8
188. 1
190: 1
190: 8
186. 4
181.5
182.2
183. 8
180. 7
Foods
108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
166. 5
162. 2
177.6
177.8
181.2
173.3
174. 8
180. 4
178.0
183.0
187. 7
187. 8
184.0
185. 9
189. 9
187,8
183. 9
178.0
178. 0
178. 8
174. 8
Other than
farm and
foods
100.6
105.4
112.4
123. 9
131.9
132. 0
138. 2
146.0
147. 4
147. 5
147. 4
149.0
149.3
149. 9
152. 1
153. 2
153.3
153.6
153. 5
153.3
153.4
153.3
153. 5
153.4
153. 4
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Index of prices received by farmers dropped substantially from September to October, as
harvesting of the bumper corn crop began. Meat animal prices fell more than seasonally and
returns for butterfat declined.
PERCENT
350
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
300
250
250
200
PRICES PAID
(1NCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
100
PARITY RATIO *
50
50
J
1939
I
40
I
42
41
43
44
J
45
F M A M J J
I I I I
A S O N D J
I I I I I I I I I
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
1946
1947
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E .
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1910-14=100]
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 2
received 1 farmers
ing interest
by farmers
and taxes)
Period
1939 monthly
1940 monthly
1941 monthly
1942 monthly
1943 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1JH7 monthly
average
average _
average
averageaverage
average
average
average,
average
____
95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
124
125
132
150
162
170
174
194
231
77
80
94
106
119
115
116
120
120
1947: September
October
November
December
286
289
287
301
238
239
241
245
120
121
119
123
1948 1 January
February
March
April
May
June
_ _
July _ _
August
September
October
307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
1M(.)
122
112
115
17
Hi
1
2
_
_
_ _
August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and
Source: Department of Agriculture.
18
20
17
l(i
1!
STOCK PRICES
Industrial
little.
stock prices rallied during October;
railroads
registered
small gains; utilities
changed
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
RAILROADS
150
125
v^jL'^C1
100
75
50
1939
40
41
42
43
44
J F M A M J
45
J A S O N D J F M A M J JA. S O N D J F M A M J j A S O N D
1946
SOURCE :
1947
1948
S T A N D A R D AND POOR'S C O R P O R A T I O N .
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthlv average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: August
SeptemberOctober
November
December
1948: January
_.
February March
April «
May
June
__
July
August
_ __
September
October
__
__
- *.
„
-.
_
__
-_
94. 2
88. 1
80.0
69.4
91. 9
99. 8
121. 5
139. 9
123.0
124.4
123. 1
125. 1
123. 6
122.4
120. 1
114.2
116.4
124. 6
130.2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
125.7
127. 8
Industrials l
94.8
87. 9
80.4
71.3
94. 1
101.7
123.3
143.4
128.0
130. 2
128.4
131. 1
130.3
129. 2
126. 0
119. 2
121. 8
130. 8
136.9
142.7
138.9
133. 5
131. 7
134.3
Railroads *
74.7
71. 1
70.6
66. 1
88. 7
101. 0
136.9
143.0
105. 3
105.2
103. 6
104. 2
100. 1
103. 9
106. 5
101.9
105.2
115.2
122.6
125.6
124.7
119. 7
120.4
120.9
Utilities »
98.6
95.8
81.0
61.3
82. 1
89.9
106. 1
120.2
102.9
101.4
102.0
101. 0
97. 2
94.0
95. 1
92.6
93.0
96.2
99.2
100. 6
99. 5
97. 3
97.3
97.4
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.
82171—48
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Civilian employment in October remained above 60 million despite a slight seasonal decline.
Unemployment fell to 1.6 million, the lowest level since last fall.
75
75 — M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS
50
m
25
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
UNEMPLOYED-MAGNIFIED SCALE
1941
SOURCE;
1944
1945
1
1946
1947
1946
1948
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE,
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period
Civilians employed
Total
In nonagricultural
industries
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Unemployed
57,
65,
65,
60,
61,
380
890
140
820
608
50,
53,
52,
55,
58,
350
960
820
250
027
41,
45,
44,
46,
49,
250
010
240
930
761
9, 100
8,950
8, 580
8,320
8,266
1,470
11, 260
11, 280
3,300
1,440
5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
1947: August
September
October
November.
December
63,
62,
62,
61,
60,
017
130
219
510
870
59,
58,
59,
58,
57,
569
872
204
595
947
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,
594
145
583
609
985
8, 975
8, 727
8, 622
7,985
6, 962
1,352
1, 346
1,327
1,294
1, 280
2, 096
1,912
1,687
1,621
1,643
1948: January
February
March
April
May__
June __ __
JulyAugust
September
October
60, 455
61, 004
61,005
61, 760
61,660
64, 740
65, 135
64, 511
63, 578
63, 166
50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
7,060
6, 771
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8, 444
8, 723
S, (J27
1,241
1, 226
1, 236
1, 230
1, 238
1, 2(>1
1 , 2<);i
2,065
2, 639
2, <HO
2, 193
1,761
'J, 184
'2, 227
I , 1M 1
J , 81)1)
1, (i-12
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
6
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
average
average
average
average
average. __
57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61,296
61,615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding
Source: Department of Commerce.
i , ;rjf>
i , ;{(•>(;
i , ;{«) i
NONAGRICULTURAL
EMPLOYMENT
An increase in manufacturing and government employment lifted total nonagricultural
salary workers about 250,000 above the previous all-time peak of last December.
wage and
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES
60
60
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
1939
*
1941
1944
1945
S££~ TABLE, FOOTNOTE I.
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[Thousands of employees]
Total wage
and salary
workers l
Period
1939 monthly average.
1941 monthly average1944 monthly average
1 945 monthly average
1946 monthly average1947 monthly average
1947: August—
September
October
November
_
December
1948: January
February
March
April
_
_
_
Mav
iVAO-J
June _
July
August _ 2 __
September
1
_
30, 287
36, 164
41, 480
40, 069
41, 494
43, 970
44, 125
44, 513
44, 758
44, 918
45, 618
44, 603
44, 279
44, 600
44, 299
44, 616
45, 009
45, 078
45, 487
45, 864
Manufacturing
10, 078
12, 974
17, 111
15, 302
14, 515
15, 901
15, 962
16, 175
16, 209
16, 256
16, 354
16, 267
16, 183
16, 269
15, 950
15, 892
16, 115
16, 158
16, 451
16, 638
Trade
6, 705
7, 567
7, 399
7, 685
8, 820
9,450
9, 356
9,471
9, 684
9, 886
10, 288
9,622
9, 520
9, 598
9, 576
9, 617
9, 670
9, 646
9, 659
9,757
Federal,
State, and
local government
3, 987
4, 622
6,026
5, 967
5, 607
5, 449
5,318
5, 403
5,414
5, 387
5,638
5,498
5,492
5, 546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5, 599
5, 650
5,801
Other
9, 517
11,001
10, 944
11, 115
12, 552
13, 170
13, 489
13, 464
13, 451
13, 389
13, 338
13, 216
13, 084
13, 187
13, 196
13, 483
13, 617
13, 675
13, 727
13, 668
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or
received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed
persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not
at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates2 in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Average weekly hours of work in August were unchanged from July, except in coal mining where
there was a return to normal after the July strike in "captive" mines, Preliminary data for September show a slight decline in manufacturing.
HOUF ?S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
T
l"\ ,•
U
V
20
-
1 0
1 0
-
0
1939 41
1»H
ur \Avy^,
44
,,,,,!,,,,,
(
1946
1947
45
,,,,,1,,,,,
-
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1
0
1948
1939
41
44
45
1946
,
1 I 1J ! ! 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
RETAIL TRADE
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
50
50
M
40
4O
«^**— —V *^^~*»*~^
^^—
30
30
20
20
1 0
-
10
"
. , , , . ! > , . , , • 1 1 . . 1. . . i i M i M 1 i i_ii i
0
1939 41
44
45
1946
1947
• • i . • 1 . •
0
1948
1939 4!
44
45
1946
M!
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
average
average
average
average
average
average
1947: August
SfiptftTnber
October
November
December
1948: January
February _
March
April
May
June
July 3
August .
September 3
1
3
3
_
_ »_
_ __
_
Bituminous
coal mining
l
Retail trade
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42.3
41.6
40.7
32. 6
34.8
39. 6
39.0
38. 1
37.8
43.0
42.5
40. 3
40.3
40. 5
40.2
39. 8
40. 4
40. 6
40. 4
41.2
39. 1
39. 1
39. 9
38. 5
41.2
38.2
37.9
38. 1
36.6
37.9
41.0
40.0
40. 0
39.5
39.7
40. 5
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39.8
40. 1
39 7
40.9
38. 7
40. 6
2 27.0
40. 3
39.9
34.2
39.3
37.2
36.7
37. 1
37.0
37. 1
37. 9
37.8
37.8
39.8
40.0
39.8
39.8
39. 9
40.3
40.8
41.0
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
Private
building
construction
WORK STOPPAGES
Despite a decrease in the number of new strikes in September, man-days of idleness increased.
The extended maritime and oil strikes on the west coast and the auto-suppliers1 strike in Detroit
were largely responsible.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS
20
PEAK MONTH
1939 40
41
42
43
44
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
1939; Monthly average
April—peak month _ .
_ __
_ _ _
1940: Monthly average _ _
_ _ _ .
_ _ _ _ _ _
1941: Monthly average._ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_
___
April—peak month
_
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
June —peak month
_ _ _
__
_ _
___
1944: Monthly average
_ _
1945: Monthly average
October—peak month
__
_ __
___
1946: Monthly average
_
_
February — peak month
1947: Monthly average-- _ _
_
_
_ _ _ _
April—peak month
1948: March 1
April
_ _ _
May
June _ _ _ _ _ _
July
August.
_
September
^.Preliminary estimate.
_
__
_
_
__
Source: Department of^Labor.
_ _
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
1,484
4, 902
0. 28
559
. 10
. 32
1. 13
1, 921
7, 113
349
.05
1, 125
4, 699
. 15
. 62
727
.09
.47
3, 168
8, 610
9, 672
22, 900
2, 993
8, 540
6, 000
8,000
4, 100
2,000
2, 200
1, 750
2, 400
1. 39
1. 43
4. 19
.41
1. 19
.8
1. 1
.6
.3
.3
.2
.3
S*0 N D
IDLE
25
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial p r o d u c t i o n in S e p t e m b e r c o n t i n u e d at the August level,
Manufacturing
o u t p u t w a s u p a little, w h i l e m i n i n g w a s d o w n 3 p e r c e n t . P r e l i m i n a r y d a t a i n d i c a t e
O c t o b e r p r o d u c t i o n was b a c k to the p o s t w a r - p e a k l e v e l s r e a c h e d in February of this y e a r ,
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Tola! Inde*
250 -
25O
200 -
200
150 -
150
100 -
S
0* N
1948
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total = 100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nonduraproduction Total Durable
goods ble goods
1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: August
September
October
November
December.
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August _ _
September 1
October *
1
Preliminary estimate.
100
239
203
170
187
182
186
190
192
192
193
194
191
188
192
192
186
191
191
195
100
258
214
177
194
188
192
197
199
198
200
201
200
195
197
198
191
197
198
201
100
360
274
192
220
210
216
223
224
229
229
226
229
217
221
222
219
222
223
228
100
176
166
165
. 172
169
172
176
179
173
178
180
177
177
178
179
169
176
178
179
Manufactures
Mining
100
132
137
134
149
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
' 162
159
153
159
154
159
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
80
82
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Mining
15
20
21
21
23
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
23
24
23
24
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Steel production reached a new postwar peak in September.
Production of transportation equipment
was curtailed by the auto-suppliers' strike.
Output of lumber declined somewhat.
ENT OWI935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 A V E R A G E
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
LUMBER AND
PRODUCTS
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
700
600
500
1935-39
1943 1945
IRON AND STEEL
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
200
100
1935-39
1935-39 1943 1945
1948
1943 1945
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment
Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average.
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947* August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
M
a v
-iv-iaj
June ._
Julv
August _ 1 _
September
« , . » _ _ ...
-
___
_
__ .
_
.
Lumber and
products
Iron and steel
100
734
487
232
230
100
130
110
130
144
100
208
183
150
195
213
227
232
234
244
142
140
143
150
153
188
195
204
202
205
244
232
240
237
218
223
235
231
227
155
150
151
145
142
140
142
149
145
203
203
207
177
207
207
200
207
213
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Textile production rose further in September from the low summer levels. Food production
covered most of the August drop. Petroleum output was reduced by the west coast strike.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
re-
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
200
1935-39
43
45
1935-39
43
45
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
400
400
200
200
1935-39
43
1935-39
45
43
45
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM.
—11
[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
Petroleum
and coal
products
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
100
153
146
162
163
100
185
235
173
193
100
145
151
150
157
100
384
284
236
251
1947' August
September
October
November
December
154
160
164
172
163
201
203
204
205
208
157
158
156
158
158
249
248
248
251
254
179
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
170
214
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
212
158
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
158
255
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
255
1948* January
February
March
April _ _ _
M ay
June
July
August
September 1
1
- __
_ _ -
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
NEW CONSTRUCTION
The volume of construction activity declined somewhat in October due principally
nonresidential field.
MILLIONS
to drops in the
OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
2,000
—
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500 -;:;!ij;-
1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
M
J
J
COUNCIL OF
A
S
O
ECONOMIC
N
D
ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average- _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _ _
1947: September _ _ _ __
October
November
December
1948: January
February _
_
March
April
May
__ _ _
_
.
- _
June
_ _ _ .
July
- _
August
. __
September
October 2_
__
_ ___
1
2
S2171-—48
;;
526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,423
,497
,432
,320
, 157
,009
, 166
1,311
1,461
1, 616
1,715
1, 799
1,783
1,704
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
226
688
908
1,086
1, 129
1, 141
1,097
948
837
940
1, 024
1, 120
1, 235
1,318
1,354
1,.336
1,265
176
110
45
57
265
438
540
590
630
610
500
400
475
525
585
635
680
695
685
660
Other
141
141
107
169
422
469
546
539
511
487
448
437
466
499
535
600
638
659
651
605
Federal,
State, and
local l
208
867
193
174
184
257
337
368
291
223
209
172
226
287
341
381
397
445
447
439
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
13
NEW HOUSING STARTS *
The number of housing starts declined again in September.
the figure was' below that of the previous year.
For the second successive month
THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
OF
100
UNITS
100
n
80
.
RURAL NONFARM
URBAK
J
M
J
1947
1946
J
J
A
S
1948
•X- NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
LABOR.
New nonfarm units (conventional
and
prefabricated) l
Period
Total
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
__
_
_-
1947: April
irxo,j
Mav
_
_
_
-
J une
July
August _
September
October
November
December
1948: Januarv.
February
March __
April
May _
June 2
Julvs
August2
September
1
2
_ _
-
_ __
___
__
_
_
___
_
__
__
_
2
_
__
Urban
Rural nonfarm
64, 683
71, 125
41, 164
40, 125
23, 520
31, 000
67, 900
73, 100
79, 400
81, 100
86, 800
93, 800
94, 000
79, 800
58, 800
38, 000
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300
29, 900
33, 800
36, 400
36, 600
39, 400
43, 500
40, 800
31, 800
22, 500
52, 600
49, 600
75, 100
98, 800
99, 400
96, 000
94, 000
83, 000
81, 000
30, 400
28, 800
42, 000
54, 400
56, 700
52, 900
49, 700
22, 200
20, 800
33, 100
44, 400
42, 700
43, 100
44, 300
New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Nonagricultural business expenditures on plant and equipment this year will probably be 15 percent more
than in 1947. Business plans for 4th quarter show a decline of about $1 billion (annual rate) from 3rd
quarter, with most of the decrease in expenditures for manufacturing construction.
BILLIONS OF DOL-LARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANNUAL TOTALS
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
" FUTILITIES
1939
1941
1945
"* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transportation
Total *
Period
Manufacturing
Mining
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946
1947
1948 3
_
1947: First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_ _
-_
_
- --- ~—__
_ _ _
_ --_
- _ _ _ _ _ _
5, 200
8, 190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180
18, 630
1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
8,030
380
680
440
560
690
770
280
560
550
570
910
1,320
280
340
320
660
800
680
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,540
1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,280
5,800
7,400
7,480
9, 160
600
640
720
840
640
880
920
1,200
720
920
800
760
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
3,600
4,120
4,640
5,360
7,200
8, 560
8,640
7,760
720
800
800
720
1,080
1,200
1,440
1,520
720
760
680
600
2,000
2,560
2,760
2,800
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,320
_
_
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
1948: First quarter
Second quarter4 _ _ _ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 4 _ _
_
_
16, 680
19, 240
19, 800
18, 760
_
Other
Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Based
on actual expenditures for first half and estimates
4
for second half.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939—44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
15
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New
rate
BILLIONS
issues in 3rd quarter of 1948 were below those of the previous
as a year ago. Three-fifths of the proceeds were earmarked for
quarter but at the same
plant and equipment.
OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3 ,0
3.0
QUARTERLY A V E R A G E
2.5
2.0
2.0
1939
SOURCE:
SECURITIES
1
1943
1945
AND E X C H A N G E
COMMISSION.
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
COUNCIL
OF
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New "money
Plant and
equipment
Total
1939 quarterly
1943 quarterly
1945 quarterly
1946 quarterly
1947 quarterly
average _ _ _
average
average
average
average- _ _
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter __
Second quarter
Third quarter
_
270
820
1,068
39
42
111
291
261
448
210
1,206
869
460
1,018
1,605
1, 266
2,221
673
932
797
1,867
396
636
649
1, 542
278
296
148
325
344
672
469
354
1,614
1,663
1,266
1,400
1,353
1, 046
845
1,080
765
555
274
'2 80
214
309
221
__
_
__ _
__
__ __
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_
1
Includes small amount for other purposes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
16
Retirement
of debt and
stock 1
43
35
159
529
806
529
287
1,476
1,689
1,528
_
Working
capital
81
77
INVENTORIES AND SALES
M a n u f a c t u r i n g s a l e s c o n t i n u e d t o r i s e in S e p t e m b e r ; r e t a i l s a l e s , s e a s o n a l l y adjusted,
have shown little c h a n g e since spring.
BILL IONS
OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MANUFACTURING
WHOLESALE
30
30
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
+***
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL V A R I A T I O N
•••*'
INVENTORIES*
20
20
^/
_^^
SALES*
1 0
1 0
SALES "s.
^^^^
^^^^^^
*x
INVENTORIES
0
i i l l l
I l l 1l
I 1 i I l 1 1 || M
IS46
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
1
1 1
1947
1
1
1
1
1
!
1 1
l | i | ( | j
0
1948
l l | I
PERCE NT
1
1947
l j
i 1 ! 1 1 ! I 1
1948
OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
DEPARTMENT STORES
RETAIL
30
400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY
20
^^/
^
i i i i
.J»J_J..J_j
Li.Ll.l
1946
LI
.L.LnUL.L™
1947
i.. i LL_L j J L
1
X ><"**""
^sy
X
200
1 0
ADJUSTED
SALES **
300
INVENTORIES !L
O
M | | | 1 L 1 |
1946
/
INVENTORIES**
-i | 1 , ,| i , 1 L...1 1 1 L
00
IS48
^
LJ , 1 1
1946
!
1 ,J J _L ^L, _...', U,._!,,.i,, L J. J«,L.l L.
1947
1948
BOOK VAIUC Of INVCNTORICS. £ND OF MCr>TH
50URCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYST
Manufacturing l
Period
Inventories
3
Sales *
i
Retail 2
Wholesale 1
Inventories
3
Sales *
Inventories *
Department stores
Sales
4
1
2
_ _
___
18, 773
19, 468
21, 500
23, 432
26, 479
26, 846
27, 051
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 726
30,218
30, 434
30, 500
10, 712
11, 132
13, 055
14, 634
15, 063
14, 361
15, 257
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16, 552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 387
18, 100
18, 700
4,309
4, 337
5, 172
5,823
6,837
6,699
7,068
7,233
7,342
7,467
7, 545
7,850
7,885
7,869
7,777
7,801
8,011
8,044
8,223
5, 338
5,575
6,321
7, 118
6,800
7,096
7,072
7,763
8,716
8,013
8,262
7,692
7, 121
7,726
7,652
7,389
7, 766
7,796
8, 160
Sales
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 5
Millions of dollars
1946: March..
June
September,-.
December _ „.
1947: June - -, -July
August
__
_ _
September
October
November
December „_ _ «
1948: January
. _
February
March.
April
May
June
July 6 6 _.
_ __
August _ _
September ®
Inventories
8,023
8,917
9, 995
11,049
11,948
11,925
11,944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 108
7,796
8, 164
8,876
9,258
9. 810
9; 822
9,786
10, 264
10, 292
10, 426
10, 620
10, 464
10,463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 870
10, 885
177
210
226
274
242
231
228
232
252
273
285
289
306
313
309
297
284
273
266
255
275
272
276
288
287
284
294
279
302
303
286
286
285
306
310
312
316
311
6
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of j month.
6
Preliminar}7 estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
4
Book value, end of month.
Total for month.
17
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Total exports and the export surplus decreased further in September. The value of imports fell back to the July level.
MILLIONS
OF
DOLLARS
MILLIONS
OF
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
MONTHLY AVERAGES
1,400
—
1,400
1,200
I,2OO
1,000
— I,OOC
800
— 600
400
400
1936-38
1943
J
1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
C
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
1947
RC.COROEO MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIV
RECOHDEO GENERAL MEHCHAhOtSE IMPORTS
J
J
A
S
NAVY.
Exports l
Period
Imports *
Excess of
exports
1936—38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
247
1,080
877
849
1,277
207
282
346
410
478
40
798
531
439
799
1947: June
July
August
Sep temb er
October
November
December
1,320
1,265
1,265
1, 185
1,305
1, 185
1, 172
463
450
400
473
492
455
603
857
815
865
712
813
730
569
1,092
1,086
1, 141
1, 123
1, 103
1,013
1,022
988
926
546
582
666
528
549
616
559
598
558
546
504
475
595
554
397
463
390
368
. __ __
.
_ _ _ _
-_
1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
*3 Recorded general merchandise imports.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
8
D
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
__ - -
N
i SUPPLIES ran OCCUPIED AREAS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE
1948: January
February
March
April
May
_- _ _ June
____
July
August
September 3
O
1948
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income continued to move up in the 3rd quarter of 1948.
significantly above the 3rd quarter of last year.
All
components were
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
200
200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION :•
ADJUSTMENT. -:-:•:•:•:-::::::::::•:
I 50
I 50
1944
1939
1945
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
_ .
Total
National
Income
72.5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202.5
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
47.8
121.1
122.9
117.3
127.5
14.7
34.1
36.0
41.8
46.0
Corporate profits and invenNet interest tory
valuation
adjustment
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4.3
5.8
24.0
19.8
16.8
24.7
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
197.3
199. 3
200. 6
212.8
125.0
125.3
127.6
132.2
46.4
44.6
44.4
48.6
4. 1
4.2
4.4
4.5
21.8
25.2
24.3
27.5
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 1
215. 1
221.4
225.6
133.7
133.9
139.3
50.6
51. 9
50.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
26.2
30.9
31.0
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment for
third quarter, 1948).
19
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits so far this year are running above the 1947 levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
40
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 0
1929
*
1939
1943
HO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, ( e x c e p t third quarter of 1948).
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947
_ -._ _
-_
_
-_
9.8
6.5
24.5
21.8
29.8
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.8
18. 1
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.-
._
« _ ._
1948: First quarter __ __
Second quarter1 _ _
Third quarter
_
28.9
28.8
29. 1
32.4
11.4
11.3
11.4
12.7
17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7
6.4
6. 7
6.9
7. 1
11. 1
10.8
10.8
12.6
31.4
33.4
35.0
12.2
13.0
13.6
19.2
20.4
21.4
7.3
7. 3
7.4
11.9
13. 1
14.0
^Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except.. 1948, third quarter).
20
See p. 19 for profits before
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income in September remained at the August level of $214.6 billion (annual rate).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
250
ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
200
200
I 50
I 50
I939
*
I944
J
IS45
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
I946
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
I947
M
J
J
A
*
*
'
'S
0
N
D
1948
TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947
SOURCE:
D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E .
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
_
.-
_
.._ ..
_ _ -_
72. 6
164.5
170. 3
178. 1
195. 2
Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and rental
and other
labor income
income
45.7
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121.9
14. 7
34. 1
36. 0
41.8
46.0
Dividends
and interest
9.2
10.6
11. 4
13.5
15. 6
Social security
and GI payments
3.0
3.6
6.2
11.4
11.7
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947" August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March _
April
May
June_
July ___
August _
September
_ _
_
_
> _
_
l
190. 8
206.2
200. 0
201.4
207.7
121.9
123.8
124. 6
127.4
129. 3
42. 8
45.0
47. 5
47. 1
51.3
15. 6
16.2
15.9
16. 1
16.2
10.5
21. 2
12.0
10. 8
10.9
209.4
206.8
205.6
207. 4
207.2
212. 3
213. 0
214. 6
214. 6
129.4
128. 9
127.6
127.0
128.8
131. 7
133. 9
136.4
136.6
52.4
50.0
49.3
51.9
50. 7
52. 8
51. 0
50.0
49. 8
16.5
16.6
16. 6
16.7
16.8
16.8
17.0
17.3
17.6
11. 1
11.3
12. 1
11.8
10.9
11.0
11.0
10. 9
10. 6
1
Preliminary estimate. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
21
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
The 3rd quarter increase in consumer income and expenditures was attributable to high-level
employment, wage increases, and tax reductions. The rate of saving continued up.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 50
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES. S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D
1939
1940
X PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES
X * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE-
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personall
income
Period
70.2
75.7
92.0
116.2
131.6
145.6
149.4
159.2
173.6
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945.
1946
1947
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67. 5
72. 1
82.3
90. 8
101.6
111.4
122.8
147.4
164.8
2. 7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
34.2
26.6
11.8
8.8
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947:
First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948:
First quarter—
Second quarter2
Third quarter
1
2
__
__
_
169.7
168.2
175.0
180.9
158. 1
164.2
165.6
171. 1
11.6
4. 1
9.4
9.7
183.7
187.3
191.8
172.0
175. 1
179.0
11. 7
12.2
12. 8
Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
22
PER CAPITA INCOME
Real purchasing power per capita for the 3rd quarter changed little from the average for the
first half of 1948.
DOLLARS
1,600
DOLLARS
1,600
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1947 DOLLARS**
1,200
1,200
CURRENT DOLLARS
1939
1940
1942
1941
1944
1943
1945
##" CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1 9 4 7 = 100.
SOURCES:
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
AND DEPARTMENT OF
2
3
1946
*## PRELIMINARY
4
1
2 3
1947
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
LABOR.
Period
Current
dollars
_ ,
.
_
_.
1947 dollars *
$536
574
691
863
964
1,054
1,070
1,127
1,205
$859
913
1,045
1, 179
1,242
1,338
1,326
1,288
1,205
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 3 _ _
.
___ _ _
„ _
1948
ESTIMATES.
Per capita disposable
personal
income l
1939
1940
1941
1942 . ._
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947_._
4
Consumers'
price index,
1947=100
62.4
62.9
66. 1
73.2
77. 6
78.8
80.7
87.5
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246
1,224
1, 191
1,200
1,200
96.9
98.2
101.0
103.8
1,261
1,279
1,306
1,198
1, 195
1, 194
105.3
107.0
109.4
1
2
3
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
23
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings continued to rise in August as further wage
D
reliminary September data indicate a further rise in manufacturing
DOLLA RS PER HOUR
DOLLARS
settlements were
earnings.
PER HOUR
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL TRADE
1.50
1.50
1947 DOLLARS*
1 00
reached.
_,
—--*
'L^^r —^
1947 DOLLARS*
1.00
CUR RENT DOLLARS
MH.
-%%^
1.^ .-^uaJ-^'WC
_—- ^T
f
*"*"""""
"•
^CURRENT DOLLARS
.50
50
0
i i . i i 1 i , . i i
1947
i i I i i 1i i i i I
1946
1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 !
1 1
0
1
I
I 1 1
1948
1
1
1 !
t
I 1 1
1 1
1 I
1
i
1
, i , , , 1 , , , .,
1
1947
1948
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00
2.00
/\
1947
jS
1947 DOLLARS*
CUF
---X/
.
-"•
--~^«.—X
--* —.-J
1.50
^^^^^^T^''^
1.50
CURRENT DOLLARS
RENT DOLLARS
1.00
1.00
50
0
i
1946
.50
i i i i i I i i i i i
i i i i i 1 i i i . i
1946
1947
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
0
1
i i t i i 1i i i i (
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1946
J947
1948
!
I 1 1
1
1 i
1 1
1 1
1948
# CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947- IOO.
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
194T monthly average
1947: July
August
September
October
November
December
1948* January
February.
March
.
April _
May
June
- -July. 4
August
_ September 4
Current
dollars
__
- --
-
$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
. 084
. 221
.230
.236
.249
1. 258
1.268
1.278
1.285
1. 287
1.289
1.292
1. 301
1.316
1.333
1.349
1.363
1947
dollars 2
$1. 014
1. 103
1.293
1.268
1.239
1. 221
1.236
1.227
1. 214
1.223
1.224
1.218
1.212
1.223
1.230
1.215
1. 215
1. 220
1. 222
1. 231
1. 244
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.003
1. 003
1.012
1.013
1. 025
1.016
1.044
1.050
1.044
1.055
1. 064
1.070
1.077
1. 080
1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
* Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947 = 100.
Source: Department of Labor.
24
1947
dollars 2
$0. 859
.859
.919
.958
1.003
.991
1.008
. 996
.983
.984
.989
.969
.985
.998
. 996
.992
. 993
.992
. 987
.985
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1.644
1.740
1.787
1.819
1.798
1.851
1.826
1.847
1. 826
1.842
2
1. 821
1. 841
1.850
1. 941
1. 976
2
4
1947
dollars *
$1. 420
1.502
1.505
1.537
1. 601
1.644
1. 749
1.775
1.768
1.747
1.787
1.741
1.742
1.736
1.758
3
1. 713
1. 719
1. 715
1.779
1.803
Private building construction *
Current
dollars
$0. 932
1.010
1. 319
1.379
1. 478
1. 676
1.676
1. 694
1.723
1.743
1.765
1.774
1.781
1.806
1.805
1.818
1. 835
1.858
1. 890
1.906
1947
dollars 2
$1. 494
1.528
1. 674
1.709
1. 689
1.676
1. 684
1. 682
1.674
1. 694
1.704
1.691
1.680
1.717
1.722
1.710
1. 713
1. 722
1.732
1.791
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
Increases in average weekly earnings were general in August.
Preliminary data for September
show manufacturing earnings off slightly, due to a decrease in hours worked.
DOLl.ARS PER WEEK
DOLLARS
PER WEEK
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
60
60
-^ — -\
CURRENT DOLLARS^
_^~^—~
40
_ ^<^^z&\.
^—
/
CURRENT DOLLARS
\
40
1947 DOLLARS* *
"~
20
, . .1,1 ,. ,. 1
i i i i i 1 i i i i I
1948
t i i i i i i i i ii
1946
1947
1947 DOLLARS **
0
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1946
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
I 1 1 I !
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
i948
1 I 1 1 1
1947
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
100
IOO
80
^ ****%it x
60
^
20
0
^—
/"
CUR RENT DOLLARS
m
^r=r^
v
>- J\^x***-^*
f
.,-.^y
/—
80
v^
CURRENT DOLLARS
1947 DOLLARS" *
40
20
20
t 1 i I i 1 I I I I I
1946
SOURCE:
/
60
1947 DOLLARS **
4O
0
DEPARTMENT
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
"--
^-.^2~***\
I I I I 1 1 i i l i i
0
1948
1 I 1 I i [ | | i I L_ I 1 1 1 1 1 II
1946
1947
OF LABOR.
1 1
1 1 I
1 1 1 I
1 1 i 1
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average..
1941 monthly average. .
1944 monthly average—
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average—
1947 -monthly average
1947- July
August
September
October .
November. . „
December .
1948* January
February
March
April
Mav
June
_ _
July 4
August _4 _ _ _
September
1
2
Current
dollars
$23. 86
29. 58
46.08
44. 39
43.74
49.25
48. 98
49. 17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52. 69
52.07
51.75
52.07
51. 79
51. 86
52. 85
53.01
54. 12
54. 06
1947 dollars a
$38. 24
44.75
58.48
55. 01
49.99
49.25
49.23
48.83
49.05
49.61
49.51
50.23
49. 12
49. 19
49. 69
48. 72
48.42
48. 98
48.59
49. 38
49.32
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28. 31
32.55
36. 67
37. 99
38.14
37.06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37. 62
38.33
38.89
39. 27
39. 84
40. 52
41. 19
41. 19
1947 dollars *
$33. 93
33. 19
33. 73
35. 08
37.20
36. 67
38. 18
37.87
36.02
35.70
35.85
35. 76
35.49
36.44
37. 11
36. 94
37. 20
37. 55
37. 75
37. 58
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Source: Department of Labor.
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
1947 dollars2
$23. 88
30. 86
51.27
52.25
58.03
66.86
54.87
70.23
71. 19
71. 91
71.77
75.22
75.78
70.54
74.84
3
49. 53
74. 08
73.87
67. 64
77. 87
1
4
$38. 27
46.69
65.06
64.75
66. 32
66.86
55. 15
69.74
69. 18
69.88
69.28
71.71
71.49
67.05
71.41
3
46. 59
69. 17
68.46
62.00
71. 05
Private building construction '
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63. 30
63. 60
64.71
65.36
66.36
64.55
67. 31
66.28
66.31
66.89
67. 31
68. 13
70.49
71.38
72.09
1947 dollars »
$48. 70
53. 16
66.22
66. 58
64.27
63.30
63.92
64.26
63.52
64.49
62.31
64. 17
62.53
63.03
63.83
63. 32
63. 61
65. 33
65.43
65. 78
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
25
FARM INCOME
Farm income i n c r e a s e d s e a s o n a l l y in S e p t e m b e r .
f l e c t i n g a d e c r e a s e in f e e d prices.
P r i c e s paid w e r e d o w n a little, r e -
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
1939
40
# CASH RECEIPTS
SOURCE:
41
BILLIONS
42
43
44
FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT
J
45
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
1
2
8
4
M
A
M
COUNCIL
DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E .
1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average
1941 monthlv average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February. _ _
March
April
May
June
July
August— 4
September _ _
F
-
_ _
__
-
-
_
_ _
_
_ _
_ _
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *
Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939
=
100 2
J
A
S
O
N
D
723
761
981
100. 0
100. 8
106. 5
121. 0
130. 6
136. 3
138. 7
155. 6
186. 3
188. 7
191. 9
192. 7
194.4
197. 6
202. 4
200. 0
199. 2
200. 8
201. 6
202. 4
202. 4
202. 4
201. 6
1, 340
1, 678
1, 753
1, 857
2 136
2, 542
2, 562
3, 118
3, 818
3, 276
2, 843
2, 571
1, 862
1, 932
2 075
2, 119
2, 437
2, 693
2, 722
3,132
OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Farm income
(millions of
1939 dollars) 3
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14 = 100, to the base 1939=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939= 100.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture,
J
PAYMENTS.
Period
26
N
OF DOLLARS
4
723
755
921
1, 107
1, 285
1, 286
1,339
1, 373
1, 364
1, 358
1,625
1,981
1, 685
1, 439
1, 270
931
970
1, 033
1,051
1, 204
1, 331
1,345
1,554
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Durable purchases rose nearly 8 percent in the 3rd quarter, as increased output made more
goods available. Expenditures for nondurables and services were also up somewhat.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ANNUAL TOTALS
1944
1939
1945
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
67. 5
111. 4
122.8
147.4
164.8
t Q3Q
1Q4.4
1Q4.C
1946
1 Q47
35. 3
67. 5
75.4
87. 5
96.5
Durable
goods
6. 7
6. 9
8.3
16.2
21.0
Services
25.5
37.0
39. 2
43.6
47. 3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First Q uarter
1948: "First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter ^
-
-
— —- —
158. 1
164.2
165. 6
171.1
92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2
19.6
21. 1
21.1
22. 1
46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8
- —
- — —
_ _ _
172. 0
175. 1
179. 0
101. 0
102.4
103. 5
21.4
22.3
24.0
49.6
50.4
51. 5
1
Preliminary estimate.
will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,
NoTE ._^Detail
27
CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer c r e d i t i n c r e a s e d again f r o m the end of August t o t h e end of S e p t e m b e r .
It was too
soon a f t e r the reimposition of instalment c r e d i t controls on S e p t e m b e r 20, to d e t e r mine t h e i r e f f e c t o n c o n s u m e r c r e d i t .
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
14
12
10
-6
1929
1939
1941
J F M A M J
1943
END OF Y E A R
J A S O N D
J F M A M J
1946
J A
S 0 N D J F M A M J J
1947
A
S O N D
1948
END OF MONTH
'SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946
1947
1947: August
September __
October
November
December
1948: January
February _ _
March
April
May
June
_
July
August
_
September 3 _ _
28
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
Instalment
credit l
7. 6
3.2
4.4
1. 7
1. 5
2.3
2.0
6.2
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.2
6.3
3.6
2.8
8.0
9. 9
5.3
_
_
_ _
__
_ _
_ _
___
_
__
6. 6
10. 1
13. 4
11. 5
11.7
12. 1
12.7
13. 4
13. 1
13.0
13. 4
13. 6
13.8
14. 1
14.2
14.4
14.7
5. 9
1. 9
3. 9
Charge
accounts
1.8
1. 5
3. 1
2. 9
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.2
Other
consumer
credit 2
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3
3. 1
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3. 6
3.6
3.6
3. 1
3! 6
3.6
7.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.2
7.7
3.2
6. 5
6.7
7.0
7. 1
7. 5
3. 1
3.6
3. 6
3. 6
3.7
3.7
3.7
1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Commercial bank loans increased $1 billion from the end of August to the end of
Government security holdings dropped more than $2 billion
September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
125
125
TOTAL (Ail commercial banks)
100
100
75
50
25
25
1929
1939
J
1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
'
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
^
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1948
END OF MONTH
END OF YEAR
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
:il of Economic A d v i s e r s
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929
1939
1945
1946
1947
_
_
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49. 5
40. 7
124.0
114.0
116.4
36. 0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
Total
13. 5
23.4
97.9
82.9
78.3
U.S.
Government
securities
48
16.3
90.6
74.8
69. 3
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9.0
34.9
35.5
36. 8
37.6
38. 1
79. 1
79.7
79. 5
79.0
78.2
70. 3
70.8
70. 5
70. 1
69.2
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.9
9.0
38.2
116. 6
1948 1 January
38.7
115. 5
February
_
38. 9
March
113. 6
38. 8
114. 3
April
_
39.4
114. 5
May „
.
39.9
113. 9
June
40. 1
114. 8
July
40. 6
115. 1
August
_
_
41.7
September * _
113. 6
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
78.4
76.9
74.7
75.5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
69.4
67.9
65.5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62.5
9.0
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
1947: August
September..
October
November _.
December
-
_
„
_ „_
114.0
115.2
116. 3
116. 6
116.3
29
MONEY SUPPLY
Most o f t h e $ 6 0 0 million i n c r e a s e d i n S e p t e m b e r money s u p p l y r e s u l t e d f r o m an
i n c r e a s e in G o v e r n m e n t d e p o s i t s .
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
150
125 —
it
1929
1939
1941
1943 1946
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Q N D J F M A M J J A S * O N D
END OF YEAR
1945
1946
1947
1948
END OF MONTH
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929
1939
1941
1943_.
1945
1946
1947
1947: August- __
September
October,r
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September3
_
_._ _._
_
26.5
37.0
50. 5
90. 1
126. 9
113. 1
115. 1
111. 3
112. 5
113. 5
114.4
115. 1
113. 7
112.0
109.6
110. 9
111.0
110. 5
111. 2
111.8
112,4
Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6. 4
9.6
18. 8
26. 5
26, 7
26. 5
26. 2
26.4
26.3
26.6
26. 5
25. 8
25. 7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25.6
25. 5
25. 6
25.7
Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
22.8
29. 8
39.0
60.8
75. 9
83. 3
87. 1
83.4
84. 2
85 4
85.9
87. 1
86. 6
84.6
81. 6
83. 0
83.2
82. 7
83. 4
83. 8
83. 9
U. S.
Government
deposits 3
0.2
.8
1.9
10.4
24. 6
3.1
1. 5
1. 7
1.9
1. 8
1.9
1. 5
1. 3
1.8
2.4
2. 5
2.4
2.2
2. 4
2.4
2.8
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning
December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
a
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
30
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The $1.3 billion excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 3rd
quarter of the calendar year 1948 was just above the 2nd quarter e x c e s s .
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
20
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
2
2
3
3*
2
3
1947
J946
1948
SOURCE: TREASURY. DEPARTMENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
flDVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public
Calendar year by quarters
1946: First quarter. _ . _
Second quarter
Third quarter
_.
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_
_
1948: First quarter.. _
Second quarter
Third quarter 1
1
_ _ _
Federal cash
payments to
the public
Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )
14
11?
10
9,
153
089
375
868
13
13
9
8,
648
590
104
907
+ 505
— 2 501
+ 1 271
+ 961
14
11,
10,
10
962
429
494
022
9 772
12, 197
10, 527
8, 677
+ 5 190
— 768
— 33
+ 1 345
15 758
11, 408
10, 344
9, 346
10, 176
9, 045
+ 6 412
+ 1 232
+ 1,299
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Treasury Department.
For sale by the SupcrinLciidont of nocummt.s. 1'. S. (lovernment Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O.
J'riw 16 cents
31
@FedFRASER