Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1983
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98th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators MAY 1983 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1983 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy ($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the first quarter of 1983, gross national product rose $62.7 billion or 8.3 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.5 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator rose at a 5.7 percent annual rate. BILLIOh45 OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 O 3,200 SEASON/kLLY ADJUSTED ANNL AL RATES "* f)f)f\ 7 snn X 2 600 f^ 2 800 7 Ann ^S^—^ GNP IN CURRENT DOLLA RS 2,400 ' _ .X^^ 2,400 V-^" -i X o nnn 2 200 7 nnn ^/^ 1 800 - ^ ;T 1 600 ^ \ ^^^"*™' I " .-'""' 1 i 1 200 I I i 1 1975 Aftf) \ GNP IN 1972 DOLLAR s 1977 1976 I i I I 1978 I 1979 I I i I 1980 I I I I 1981 I I 1982 i I ! 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures T^inal Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local sales 26.8 13.8 -4.0 — 1.1 13.2 25.2 26.1 20.5 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.0 341.3 330.3 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 538.4 596.9 647.4 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 257.9 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.4 153.7 178.6 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.8 75.2 79.3 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 341.2 368.0 389.4 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,643.1 2,917.3 3,083.1 486.0 468.9 25.9 23.5 367.2 367.9 341.3 344.4 600.2 626.3 230.0 250.5 154.4 166.9 75.7 83.6 370.1 375.7 2,949.1 2,989.9 1,919.4 1,947.8 1,986.3 2,030.8 414.8 431.5 443.3 391.5 31.3 34.9 6.9 9.1 359.9 365.8 349.5 328.1 328.6 330.9 342.5 319.1 630.1 630.9 651.7 676.8 249.7 244.3 259.0 278.7 166.2 176.2 182.7 189.3 83.5 68.2 76.3 89.4 380.4 386.6 392.7 398.0 3,031.1 3,061.4 3,083.5 3,156.5 2,054.2 421.3 19.0 331.9 312.9 676.4 274.0 192.9 81.1 402.5 3,208.2 1,185.9 1,326.4 737.1 812.0 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,633.1 2,937.7 3,059.3 1981: El IV 1982: I 195.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 1,971.1 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 420.3 2,980.9 3,003.2 1,868.8 1,884.5 n m IV 2,995.5 3,045.2 3,088.2 3,108.2 1983: I r 3,170.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Goveniment pureh<ises of goc ds and servi ces Exports aiid imports of goods and services 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 339.2 367.3 350.8 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1972 Gross private domestic investment 0.7 14.2 13.4 28.5 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product G ross privat e dome stic invest]ment Personal consumpChange tion in expendi- Nonresi- Residen- business dential tial fixed tures invenfixed tories 951.4 943.4 173.9 174.2 42.9 39.9 16.5 949.1 955.0 956.3 967.0 172.0 166.7 163.4 160.9 38.9 40.1 39.5 42.9 -15.4 -4.4 IV 1,470.7 1,478.4 1,481.1 1,477.2 1983: I r 1,486.2 973.1 163.1 49.7 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,474.0 1,502.6 1,476.9 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 1,510.4 1,490.1 n m 1981: HI IV 1982: I 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 930.5 947.6 956.9 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 Govern ment purch ases of g°o< s and services Federal Net exports 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 166.1 172.0 165.7 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.2 44.9 40.3 Ex]ports of go ods amd services Exports Total Imports Total 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.6 42.0 31.8 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.2 158.5 148.1 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.6 116.4 116.3 39.2 36.5 157.8 156.9 -20.3 36.9 35.7 27.5 27.2 -16.1 23.5 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -5.0 9.0 -9.2, 4.8 3.4 0.7 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.6 National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 287.1 291.3 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.5 110.4 116.4 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.1 73.5 78.6 28.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.8 37.8 118.7 120.4 286.4 291.3 110.7 116.0 74.3 76.1 36.5 39.9 175.7 175.3 1,493.9 1,485.3 151.7 154.4 147.5 138.8 114.7 118.7 120.0 111.6 289.2 285.3 291.1 299.5 114.4 110.3 116.2 124.7 74.5 78.2 80.6 81.0 39.8 32.1 35.5 43.7 174.9 175.0 174.9 174.8 1,486.1 1,482.7 1,477.8 1,497.5 138.5 115.0 292.9 118.3 81.6 36.6 174.6 1,502.3 101.7 95.9 96.6 73.1 68.3 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 178.1 176.7 174.9 1,175.3 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.0 1,493.7 1,486.0 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal c onsumption expen ditures Period Gross national product Durable goods 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 1981: HI IV 197.36 201.55 1982: n m able goods Services Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 100.0 100.0 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.1 201.3 210.0 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 213.1 231.8 236.9 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.3 293.1 284.1 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.4 221.6 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.4 209.0 227.2 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 181.0 204.2 210.1 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.6 208.2 222.7 198.6 203.6 203.0 206.8 235.8 239.2 232.6 234.5 287.7 286.1 207.8 216.0 207.9 219.5 207.4 209.4 210.7 214.3 206.8 207.1 210.0 21.1.0 207.4 210.6 215.3 219.7 207.6 211.3 210.7 210.4 240.5 238.6 238.8 236.3 237.3 236.8 236.9 236.5 286.4 278.8 285.4 286.0 218.3 221.6 223.0 223.5 223.0 225.2 226.5 233.6 209.6 212.6 214.9 204.8 217.5 220.9 224.5 227.8 210.1 222.5 207.3 242.5 239.6 272.0 231.7 236.3 221.4 230.5 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.3 167.5 174.9 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.3 213.3 196.4 199.8 169.7 171.3 204.2 205.6 IV 203.68 205.98 208.51 210.42 202.2 204.0 207.7 210.0 173.0 174.0 176.1 176.3 1983: I r. 213.36 211.1 177.4 Residential fixed 100.0 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.4 202.7 208.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. dential fixed 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.6 238.5 100.0 I Gove rnment pure aases of goo ds and sernces Federal Total 100.0 100.00 105.75 • 105.7 116.4 115.08 125.79 125.3 132.34 131.7 139.3 140.05 150.42 149.1 163.42 162.5 178.64 179.2 195.51 194.5 206.0 207.15 1972 1973 Exports anc [ imports of goods anc1 services 100.0 103.8 115.4 100.0 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Ore ss national prc)duct Period 8.6 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 10.1 11.8 __.6 -1.2 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 8.9 — .4 11.6 1.9 4.1 11.4 3.0 -1.0 I n m 6.8 5.8 2.6 IV 1983: 3.4 5.7 5.8 8.1 8.0 1981: HI IV 1982: Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars l r 8.3 -1.7 2.2 -5.3 5.1 2.1 .7 -1.1 2.5 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption e spenditures Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 5.0 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.3 9.4 6.0 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 9.0 9.4 6.4 4.8 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.9 9.6 6.2 9.0 8.8 9.2 8.4 8.9 8.5 11.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 3.7 5.0 4.6 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.1 5.9 4.9 7.6 6.1 8.1 9.3 5.7 3.4 3.2 4.7 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 8.1 9.6 3.7 5.8 4.2 .7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .3 1.8 1.0 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.6 6.9 4.2 3.5 6.1 10.1 10.4 10.4 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 10.3 10.7 11.2 8.6 5.9 9.1 6.0 9.3 5.8 8.2 7.0 8.0 7.2 7.6 7.1 5.0 3.5 7.5 4.5 5.2 3.6 7.1 5.5 4.8 3.2 7.3 5.6 2.6 9.4 9.9 4.3 3.6 6.1 2.5 2.5 .6 4.5 10.2 4.3 3.7 5.7 2.0 2.3 1.7 2.9 3.4 -3.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Curirent-dollar co st and profit per unit of output (dolla rs) 1 Gross d omestic product of ilonfinancial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current dollars 1972 dollars Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Corporate profits with inventory valuation <md capital C(msumption adjustments Net interest 599.6 626.8 678.0 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 876.1 860.3 881.3 855.3 0.940 .973 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.787 1.966 2.077 0.087 .091 .092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .200 .222 .250 0.106 .113 .113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .173 .202 .213 0.631 .641 .659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.211 1.305 1.391 0.028 .029 .028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .061 .071 .085 1,683.3 1,715.0 1,763.6 1,767.2 883.0 884.2 887.5 870.4 1.906 1.940 1.987 2.030 .211 .218 .224 .236 .196 .202 .203 .208 1.267 1.289 1.315 1.349 .062 .069 .074 .078 IV 1,756.6 1,771.0 1,794.4 1,783.4 858.8 857.9 859.3 845.3 2.045 2.064 2.088 2.110 .242 .247 .251 .259 .205 .211 .214 .221 1.376 1.388 1.392 1.409 1983: Ip 1,831.9 858.3 2.134 .256 .222 1.411 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: I n m IV 1982: 1 I n m Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. tax liability 563.7 609.9 678.0 759.4 818.9 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,537.7 1,732.3 1,776.4 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Profits Total 3 4 Profits after tax 4 0.088 0.045 0.043 .082 .085 .085 .086 .099 .107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .143 .165 .139 .170 .161 .171 .159 .140 .134 .146 .135 .047 .049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .075 .072 .046 .081 .069 .074 .063 .045 .043 .049 .046 .052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .068 .093 .093 .089 .091 .097 .096 - .095 .091 .097 .089 .085 .160 .054 .106 n utput U of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.115 7.450 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 8.144 8.216 8.201 8.170 8.315 8.378 4.491 4.778 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 8.198 8.969 9.892 10.850 11.653 8.330 8.323 8.328 8.279 10.553 10.731 10.951 11.172 8.288 8.343 8.438 8.447 11.403 11.577 11.744 11.898 8.542 12.055 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory viiluation and capital coiisumption adjust ments Farm 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,117.1 2,352.5 2,436.6 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,598.6 1,767.6 1,856.5 1981: HI IV 2,387.3 2,404.5 1,789.1 1,813.4 1982: I n ni IV 2,396.9 2,425.2 2,455.6 2,468.8 1983: I r 2,523.9 Nonfarm 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 19.0 1972 1973 1 Corporate profits with inv entory valuatio n and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Profits ^nth inventory valuation adjustmt ;nt and withou t capital consiimption adjust ment Net interest adjustment 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 174.9 6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 -9.2 -1.8 -10.1 13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -17.8 -16.8 -4.9 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 187.7 235.7 264.9 210.3 199.4 233.3 216.5 -23.0 -17.1 -17.1 15.5 244.0 249.5 157.1 155.4 166.2 164.6 167.2 162.2 170.0 163.3 171.6 171.7 180.3 175.9 -4.4 -9.4 -10.3 -12.6 10.1 -6.9 -3.8 1.3 258.7 267.5 268.1 265.3 185.4 177.6 178.3 7.8 266.4 94.0 105.6 96.7 96.6 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 101.3 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 34.1 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 181.6 190.6 160.8 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 165.7 27.1 24.6 100.4 99.5 33.6 33.6 193.1 183.9 1,830.8 1,850.7 1,868.3 1,876.1 17.8 17.4 16.6 24.1 98.6 99.9 101.7 104.8 33.9 34.2 34.6 33.9 1,908.4 18.6 109.9 35.3 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits Total 21.0 718.0 Capital consump- Total 100.6 125.6 -.7 2.7 2.7 51.2 60.2 76.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] No ndurable goods Durabl 3 goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 111.1 Furniture and household equipment Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Other Services 64.9 Domestics Imports 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 343.7 375.3 397.3 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.7 114.6 118.6 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 87.0 96.8 93.7 1.6 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 135.0 147.9 152.4 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 782.5 874.1 966.3 9.3 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.4 92.8 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 670.4 734.5 762.1 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 104.0 93.9 93.8 93.3 43.4 42.4 741.3 746.5 378.0 382.3 115.9 116.0 97.7 97.5 149.7 150.7 886.3 908.3 6.8 5.2 2.2 2.2 237.9 240.7 240.3 251.8 103.2 103.3 104.3 113.8 91.0 93.2 92.7 94.3 43.7 44.2 43.3 43.7 749.1 755.0 768.4 775.7 387.9 395.0 401.3 405.1 117.5 118.4 119.1 119.4 95.3 91.3 94.2 94.0 148.4 150.4 153.8 157.2 932.4 952.1 977.6 1,003.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 6.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 257.3 115.2 96.0 46.0 776.8 409.4 120.0 89.7 157.7 1,020.0 6.0 2.4 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 1,971.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.3 234.6 242.7 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 89.7 98.6 106.2 41.7 47.1 50.6 1981: m IV 1,868.8 1,884.5 241.2 229.6 1982: I n in IV 1,919.4 1,947.8 1,986.3 2,030.8 1983: I r, 2,054.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total nondurable goods 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 38.3 42.6 43.7 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1972 Other Eetail sal es of new passengi-er cars (millions of units) SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $20.2 billion (annual rate) in April, following a rise of $14.9 billion in March. Wages and salaries rose $12.8 billion in April, compared with a rise of $9.1 billion in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,400 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 600 600 OTHER INCOME 400 400 „„.«•«""""" TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 160 160 120 120 i I i i i ii 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements 1 Proprietors ' income 3 Other labor income * 2 Farm Personal dividend income 23.0 23.5 29.9 36.5 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 19.0 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 101.3 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 34.1 151.3 152.5 153.6 154.6 155.5 156.5 157.2 157.9 158.7 16.9 17.3 18.0 17.3 16.6 16.0 17.1 27.7 27.5 99.3 100.3 100.2 100.9 101.7 102.5 104.2 105.3 104.9 159.6 160.6 161.6 162.7 19.1 18.4 18.2 19.6 108.7 109.7 111.2 112.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 2,569.9 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.1 1,493.9 1,560.7 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 127.2 140.4 153.8 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2,535.5 2,556.2 2,566.3 2,588.3 2,592.0 2,597.2 2,609.4 2,627.7 2,635.0 1,546.6 1,560.4 1,562.9 1,569.5 1,570.3 1,570.1 1,571.5 1,572.2 1,579.9 1983: Jan r. Feb r. Mar r Apr p 2,641.7 2,644.0 2,658.9 2,679.1 1,596.1 1,593.9 1,603.0 1,615.7 24.6 19.1 19.1 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.2 336.3 374.7 50.4 1,229.1 39.6 45.3 50.8 55.9 62.5 67.0 123.2 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 263.4 329.0 371.2 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.9 111.7 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,117.3 2,364.1 2,518.8 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.4 32.5 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.6 67.3 67.7 68.4 68.9 69.3 368.0 372.0 376.0 377.6 378.3 378.8 376.0 374.0 373.8 363.9 364.8 366.9 379.7 380.2 383.3 392.7 399.6 401.3 110.8 111.6 111.7 112.4 112.5 112.4 112.4 112.4 112.8 2,486.8 2,506.9 2,516.0 2,538.5 2,542.8 2,548.5 2,559.4 2,567.0 2,574.4 35.2 35.3 35.4 35.5 69.7 69.8 69.8 69.9 375.0 376.9 379.3 381.3 394.8 395.6 397.0 399.4 116.4 116.2 116.7 117.5 2,589.4 2,592.2 2,607.2 2,625.8 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, real per capita disposable income rose in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 P BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) q 2,400 4,000 3,000 J * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal inc( >me Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dol ars 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 2,569.9 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.3 386.7 397.2 I 3,000 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,824.1 2,029.1 2,172.7 Per capitai personal consulnption expen< [itures Current dollars 1972 dollars 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 106.2 130.2 142.2 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,012 8,827 9,363 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,472 4,538 4,545 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thousands) 2 Per cent Do lars 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,717.9 1,898.9 2,030.5 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,323 8,018 8,494 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,087 4,123 4,124 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 _,9 1.5 .2 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.4 6.5 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,654 229,872 232,056 3.7 .2 230,145 230,751 231,246 231,724 232,320 232,934 233,497 Seas onally adju sted annual rates IV 2,458.2 2,494.6 2,510.5 2,552.7 2,592.5 2,624.0 398.1 393.2 393.4 401.2 394.4 399.7 2,060.0 2,101.4 2,117.1 2,151.5 2,198.1 2,224.3 1,925.7 1,942.7 1,977.9 2,007.2 2,046.1 2,090.9 134.4 158.6 139.1 144.3 152.0 133.4 8,951 9,107 9,155 9,285 9,461 9,549 4,557 4,559 4,527 4,552 4,555 4,547 8,120 8,167 8,300 8,406 8,550 8,718 4,134 4,088 4,104 4,121 4,116 4,151 -2.8 2.2 .3 __.7 6.5 7.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.0 1983: F 2,648.2 401.0 2,247.2 2,115.3 131.9 9,624 4,559 8,798 4,168 1.1 5.9 1981: HI IV 1982: I n m 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer, payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the first quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $9.3 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $5.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 200 (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1200 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 NET FARM INCOME- 40 >, A 20 ' J 10 1975 1976 20 V L I 1979 1978 1977 1980 1981 1982 I 1983 I * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come (iross Period of farm operators from farmi ng Net farai farm incom e Cas h marketing receipts Total l Total Livestock and products Crops 75.8 5.5 .2 25.2 18.7 18.4 26.7 32.4 20.1 25.1 20.4 15.6 11.0 10.2 13.6 14.9 8.2 9.2 7.1 74.6 72.9 75.7 76.8 2.5 5.3 7.2 7.0 139.0 141.0 143.2 143.2 22.8 23.7 28.3 25.6 8.7 8.8 10.2 9.1 77.0 74.3 72.8 74.7 .5 .5 .3 .5 143.8 144.3 144.6 144.8 20.7 18.7 17.3 25.0 7.3 6.5 5.9 8.5 141.3 19.2 6.5 46.3 47.6 58.8 68.6 67.8 68.5 69.3 45.8 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.1 71.7 75.0 74.7 161.8 164.7 171.5 168.8 142.5 142.3 146.7 142.5 67.9 69.4 71.0 65.7 n m IV 164.5 163.0 161.9 169.8 144.4 144.4 143.2 144.1 67.4 70.1 70.4 69.4 1983: lp 160.5 140.2 70.0 IV 1982: I 1 : Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 1967 dollars 3 83.3 90.2 100.6 119.0 130.5 141.6 144.4 43.1 n m Current dollars 2.4 1.0 1.1 5.6 88.9 95.4 96.2 112.5 131.7 139.5 143.5 144.0 1981: I Value of inventory changes 2 income 3.4 101.0 101.9 108.6 127.3 151.3 150.6 166.8 164.8 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Production expenses 70.2 3 -4.3 -1.5 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $2.4 billion (annual rate) from their fourth quarter level and after-tax profits fell $5.4 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 120 80 40 40 1982 1983 'COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pr<)fits (before t ax) with inventory valuati on adjustmen t 1 Profits after ta X Do nestic industiies Period Nonfinancial m Total 2 Total IV 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 165.7 210.3 199.4 167.2 162.2 170.0 163.3 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 169.1 184.6 147.6 189.3 173.7 150.3 144.1 153.7 142.4 1983: lp. 177.6 161.5 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: HI IV 1982: I n m 1 2 85.3 92.0 Financial 70.0 76.0 65.4 40.7 45.5 39.0 20.0 22.2 24.2 28.7 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 140.0 162.0 123.9 168.5 153.3 130.4 121.9 129.5 113.7 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 74.5 86.3 55.9 92.2 73.7 57.7 56.6 62.7 46.7 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 31.1 130.4 Tax liability Total Dividends sale and retail trade 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 29.2 22.7 23.8 20.8 20.4 Total 3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. i Manufacturing Profits before tax 3 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 157.8 150.9 117.1 150.8 144.9 115.0 116.3 119.4 117.9 178.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 24.6 33.4 28.7 33.0 35.7 31.9 26.8 27.4 28.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 174.9 233.3 216.5 171.6 171.7 180.3 175.9 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.7 81.2 57.7 82.4 71.6 56.7 55.3 60.9 58.0 65.7 112.5 100.6 125.6 Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.1 65.1 70.3 66.8 68.1 68.8 69.3 - 70.5 72.4 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 99.7 85.8 46.9 84.0 76.9 46.1 47.0 48.8 45.5 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 -9.2 73.5 39.0 -.7 24.4 27.0 29.9 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -23.0 -17.1 —4.4 -9.4 -10.3 -12.6 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the first quarter of 1983, business fixed investment fell $0.3 billion (annual rate) from its fourth quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $19.1 billion. There was a $37.3 billion decrease in inventories following a $48.3 billion decrease in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 550 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 500 450 450 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 400 400 350 350 300 300 NONRESIDENTIAL -FIXED INVESTMENT - 250 250 200 200 RESIDENTIAL -FIXED INVESTMENT- 150 150 100 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS_ INVENTORIES 50 x.,...,./ 0 .. .H. .X * J -50 1975 50 L i 1976 1977 i 1 1 I 1979 1978 0 l i i J I L 1982 1981 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE -50 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: III IV domestic investment 195.0 Nonresk ential fixed in vestment Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Eesidential fbLed investment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Change i]n business mver tones Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm 386.6 423.0 402.3 205.2 248.9 290.2 309.2 471.5 346.1 420.3 348.0 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.5 129.7 141.5 486.0 468.9 353.0 360.2 132.7 139.6 220.2 220.6 101.2 95.5 95.6 89.4 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 31.8 13.2 24.6 1982: I II Ill IV 414.8 431.5 141.4 143.6 141.3 139.6 215.6 208.6 203.0 87.9 89.6 88.7 95.7 2.4 2.8 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 -36.0 15.0 4.7 3.7 198.8 93.4 95.5 94.3 101.4 -35.6 -16.2 391.5 357.0 352.2 344.2 338.4 -48.3 -50.0 1983: Ir 421.3 338.1 137.4 200.7 120.5 114.8 2.4 3.3 -37.3 -36.6 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 443.3 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 198.6 216.4 206.5 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 103.2 104.9 96.2 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.3 99.7 90.5 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 0.7 10.2 9.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 10.0 20.5 -23.8 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 1.5 1.7 8.6 -5.7 15.0 -24.3 6.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department January-February survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1983 is expected to be 1.7 percent below the 1982 level. Spending in 1982 was 1.6 percent below the 1981 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 40 40 30 30 1975 1976 1979 1978 19/7 1980 1981 1982 1983 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plan t and equip ment Period Total Plant Equipment Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Trade Total Mining Transportation 1975 1976 1977. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 4 157.71 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 316.43 310.92 65.21 71.20 80.31 92.70 105.73 117.55 133.46 134.47 92.50 100.25 117.77 138.54 164.73 178.08 188.04 181.96 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 115.90 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 56.44 54.22 28.59 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 63.23 61.69 102.79 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 196.75 195.02 6.10 7.44 8.68 8.89 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 15.45 15.46 1981: HI IV 328.25 327.83 136.40 136.67 191.85 191.17 130.11 126.91 62.58 60.78 67.53 66.14 198.13 200.92 1982: I 327.72 323.22 315.79 302.77 139.49 137.95 135.14 127.15 188.23 185.28 180.65 175.61 128.32 123.77 119.46 110.09 60.84 59.03 57.14 50.50 67.48 64.74 62.32 59.59 112.81 111.30 119.34 52.76 50.85 56.39 60.05 60.45 62.94 n m IV 1983: I 44 n 4 2nd half . 302.25 302.20 318.71 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 Starts of plant and Nonmanuifaeturing M Anufacturin g Public utilities and services l Communication and other 2 ment projects, manufacturing 3 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.95 11.00 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.95 41.00 46.23 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.95 87.78 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 40.46 39.78 17.55 16.81 11.61 13.12 39.55 39.74 87.55 88.33 41.89 42.92 33.33 33.68 199.40 199.46 196.33 192.68 17.60 16.56 14.63 13.31 11.99 12.32 11.28 12.41 40.12 41.40 43.38 42.88 87.80 88.85 87.31 84.00 41.89 40.33 39.73 40.06 27.73 29.03 25.61 23.37 189.44 190.90 199.37 14.56 14.62 16.25 10.95 11.59 10.68 41.00 41.37 40.85 85.38 85.23 90.02 37.55 38.09 41.58 19.98 3 21.80 23.51 56.51 59.38 77.40 88.16 112.98 123.32 135.19 104.78 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and February 1983, corrected for biases. 4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 355,000 in April and unemployment fell 53,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER, SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS . [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Civilian e mploymeB t Period 1977 19784 1979 1980 1981 1982 Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces Resident Armed Forces employment 160,689 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 1,656 1,631 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 P" T Unemployment 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 Total labor force including resident Armed Forces Total employment including resident Armed Forces 100,665 103,882 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 93,673 97,679 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 Unemp oyment Nonagiricultural p. .,. labor lorce Total 99,009 92,017 102,251 96,048 104,962 98,824 106,940 99,303 108,670 100,397 110,204 99,526 Unad usted Agricultural 3,283 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 ii Totai 88,734 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 Parttime for economic reasons 1 3,369 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 loiai Tntnl 15 weeks and over Laboi• force participa tion rate (per cent) Total Civilian 3 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 62.6 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 62.3 63.2 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 Seas Mially adjiisted 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 173,512 173,691 173,854 174,038 174,200 174,360 174,549 174,718 174,864 1,668 1,665 1,664 1,674 1,689 1,670 1,668 1,660 1,665 98,858 99,957 100,683 101,490 101,177 99,851 99,825 99,379 98,849 9,957 9,957 10,886 11,036 10,710 10,695 10,942 11,476 11,628 111,408 112,043 111,811 112,090 112,303 112,528 112,420 112,702 112,794 101,152 101,659 101,345 101,262 101,372 101,213 100,844 100,796 100,758 109,740 110,378 110,147 110,416 110,614 110,858 110,752 111,042 111,129 99,484 99,994 99,681 99,588 99,683 99,543 99,176 99,136 99,093 3,356 3,446 3,371 3,445 3,429 3,363 3,413 3,466 3,411 96,128 96,548 96,310 96,143 96,254 96,180 95,763 95,670 95,682 5,750 5,731 5,561 5,577 5,820 6,495 6,403 6,411 6,425 10,256 10,384 10,466 10,828 10,931 11,315 11,576 11,906 12,036 3,080 3,267 3,517 3,569 3,637 3,856 4,167 4,524 4,732 64.2 64.5 64.3 64.4 64.5 64.5 64.4 64.5 64.5 63.9 64.2 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.2 64.2 1983: Jan Feb Mar.. Apr 175,021 175,169 175,320 175,465 1,667 1,664 1,664 1,671 97,262 97,265 97,994 98,840 12,517 12,382 11,879 11,035 112,215 112,217 112,148 112,457 100,770 100,727 100,767 101,129 110,548 110,553 110,484 110,786 99,103 99,063 99,103 99,458 3,412 3,393 3,375 3,371 95,691 95,670 95,729 96,088 6,845 6,481 6,202 6,082 11,446 11,490 11,381 11,328 4,634 4,618 4,615 4,356 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.1 63.8 63.7 63.6 63.7 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. 4 Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all civilian workers declined slightly to 10.2 percent in April from 10.3 percent in March. The overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, was unchanged at 10.1 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 15 10 1983 "UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp oyment ra te (percen t of civilia n labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 By sex and a ge By race Both sexes 16-19 years civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 6.9 6.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 7.1 6.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 5.2 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 7.0 17.8 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 1982: Apr... MayJune.. July .. Aug... Sept .. Oct.... Nov... Dee... 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.8 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 1983: Jan... Feb ... Mar... Apr ... 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.4 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 Black a nd other White Total Black 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 13.1 11.9 14.0 12.8 12.3 14.3 22.8 22.9 22.5 23.9 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.5 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.7 22.7 22.2 23.5 23.4 9.1 9.2 9.0 8.9 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 2 12 By s elected grou]JS A 11 All Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 15.6 18.9 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.8 18.4 18.6 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.8 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.7 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.8 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.7 12.4 11.3 12.5 13.2 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.5 10.0 11.2 10.4 10.6 10.3 11.3 11.1 10.4 10.7 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 19.0 18.0 18.5 18.8 20.8 19.7 19.9 20.8 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.9 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 13.2 13.0 13.5 13.2 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.6 10.1 10.5 10.6 11.7 12.0 11.8 11.4 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 9.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9.9 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In April, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for more than 15 weeks fell, and the percentage out of work for less than 15 weeks rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT -A JOB LOSERS - /T' 50 X 40 40 - - 30 REENTRANTS 30 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS - 10 1979 1983 * SEASONALLY 1980 1981 1982 1983 ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period TT ployment (thousands) Percent distribution of unemplo yment by dura tion 1 Less than 5 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Steite progi*ams Percent distribution of unemplc yment by rea son * Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemploy- Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 t Weekly ave rage, thousarids 1978 1979 1980 12.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 10.4 41.7 43.1 41.7 36.4 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 14.1 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 2,359 2,434 3,350 3,047 4,057 346 388 488 460 583 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 4,590 10,256 10,384 10,466 10,828 10,931 11,315 11,576 11,906 12,036 38.3 37.2 34.3 36.7 36.0 35.1 33.9 32.9 32.9 31.7 31.5 32.3 30.1 30.7 31.1 30.2 29.5 28.3 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.0 16.8 18.2 17.4 14.6 15.7 17.4 16.6 16.8 17.8 19.1 19.4 21.3 57.6 57.3 59.0 58.3 58.6 60.7 62.4 61.6 60.6 8.8 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.9 22.9 23.1 22.7 22.8 22.2 21.2 19.8 21.3 21.8 10.7 11.2 10.4 11.3 11.9 11.3 11.0 10.4 10.7 3,982 3,972 4,011 3,988 4,136 4,379 4,615 4,635 4,428 573 579 560 539 617 654 659 618 546 4,760 4,387 4,328 4,495 4,398 4,282 4,391 4,635 5,074 11,446 11,490 11,381 11,328 30.8 32.6 30.7 32.1 28.9 27.1 28.1 28.5 16.8 16.8 16.7 15.0 23.5 23.5 24.5 24.4 59.1 60.2 60.4 59.7 7.4 7.5 8.0 7.2 23.1 22.0 21.5 22.0 10.4 10.3 10.2 11.0 3,941 3,907 3,894 3,832 509 485 493 484 5,459 5,437 5,134 6,202 1981 1982 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 1982: Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr 46.2 48.1 1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding, 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Eico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servieemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 807 897 708 936 953 691 1,117 Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: tration). irtment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis- 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 258,000 in April following a rise of nearly 200,000 in March. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 90 r^" WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE r— F==1 •*= \i ^ - • * M» ALL NONAGRICULTUR> ESTAI LISHMENTS 80 20 - SERVICES - 70 GOVERNMENT \ I II I I I I I I I SE ?VICE-PRODU CING INDUSTRIE S 60 - MANUFACTURING \ 20 50 40 - - GOODS-P RODUCING INDlJSTRIES 30 \. """"«•"..„.,...."» 20 -n i i i i 1 i i i M ¥ M 1979 I I 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 CONSTRUCTION """•MI i i i i i 1 t i i ii 1980 1981 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 IIN 1979 ' 1980 1981 1982 1983 * SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Service-] reducing ind ustries Goods- producing in< [ustries Total nonagriPeriod employment & lanufacturing Total 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 89,823 90,406 91,105 89,630 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,481 23,882 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 90,083 90,166 89,839 89,535 89,313 89,264 88,877 88,750 88,565 1983: Jan Feb r Mar r..... Apr'.... 88,920 88,759 88,955 89,213 86,697 Construction Total Durable goods Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 20,584 20,652 20,595 20,615 20,550 20,492 20,441 20,425 20,316 5,335 5,342 5,352 5,359 5,360 5,367 5,357 5,363 5,377 18,929 18,963 18,988 19,042 19,048 19,084 19,074 19,135 19,148 2,730 2,728 2,739 2,737 2,740 2,731 2,740 2,745 2,761 13,122 13,125 13,093 12,898 12,933 13,029 13,019 13,009 12,994 20,487 20,448 20,521 20,512 5,384 5,396 5,406 5,424 19,200 19,203 19,314 19,418 2,749 2,751 2,748 2,746 12,989 13,005 12,982 12,975 12,187 12,117 11,112 5,146 5,157 5,058 20,310 20,551 20,551 19,169 19,115 18,930 18,813 18,672 18,572 18,325 18,181 18,131 11,375 11,332 11,203 11,133 10,993 10,900 10,666 10,550 10,519 7,794 7,783 7,727 7,680 7,679 7,672 7,659 7,631 7,612 65,794 65,911 65,845 65,695 65,656 65,734 65,638 65,669 65,579 5,094 5,101 5,078 5,044 5,025 5,031 5,007 4,992 4,983 18,208 18,226 18,276 18,385 10,576 10,607 10,640 10,729 7,632 7,619 7,636 7,656 65,758 65,741 65,905 66,030 4,949 4,938 4,934 4,955 3,938 3,988 3,940 3,927 3,899 3,883 3,856 3,854 3,818 23,162 23,018 23,050 23,183 3,927 3,787 3,777 3,808 State and local 13,253 13,050 4,724 4,975 24,289 24,255 23,994 23,840 23,657 23,530 23,239 23,081 22,986 Federal 5,160 5,301 5,350 19,542 20,192 4,346 4,176 3,913 Services 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 4,923 5,136 8,231 Government 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,592 19,001 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,625 65,748 12,274 12,760 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the p'ay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 Total Transportation and public utilities 8,280 8,098 8,056 7,736 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,173 18,848 4,229 4,463 Nondurable goods 2,753 12,919 13,174 13,375 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not s ning, shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb r Mar r . Apr". Average gi-oss hourly earnings Manilla cturing Total private nonagricultural 1 Total 36.5 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 35.1 34.5 34.8 35.0 Total private nonagricultural l Overtime 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.0 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.2 39.0 38.8 38.8 38.9 38.9 39.8 39.1 39.6 40.1 Manufacturing $4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 7.59 7.65 7.67 7.71 7.74 7.72 7.77 7.79 7.82 7.87 7.90 7.89 7.94 Adjuste d hourly earnin gs index — total private nonagricultural 2 Ind ex, 1977 =-100 Percent ehang e from a year earlic r 4 s 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars $4.42 80.0 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 8.44 8.48 8.52 8.56 8.57 8.56 8.56 8.61 8.62 8.67 8.76 8.75 8.80 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.1 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.4 146.3 147.7 148.1 148.9 149.9 150.1 150.8 151.2 152.1 152.8 153.4 153.4 153.9 Current dollars 98.3 97.6 8.0 8.4 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 93.7 93.6 92.9 92.8 93.1 93.2 93.2 93.5 94.3 94.8 95.3 95.0 94.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.1 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.2 1977 dollars 2.8 _.7 1.4 1.0 .5 3.1 -4.0 1.0 .8 .8 .8 .2 .8 .8 1.2 1.2 1.1 2.1 1.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent cl iange from a year earlier, total private n onagrieultural 5 Avera ge gross weekly eairaings Period Total private nonagneultural 1 Current dollars 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1983: Jan Feb r Mar r . Apr* $154.76 163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 264.89 267.75 267.68 269.08 269.35 268.66 269.62 270.31 272.14 276.24 272.55 274.57 277.90 Manufacturing 1977 dollars 3 $190.12 184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 169.69 169.78 167.93 167.76 167.40 166.77 166.53 167.17 168.61 171.26 169.39 170.01 171.12 Wholesale and retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars $176.80 190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 329.16 331.57 333.98 335.55 334.23 332.13 332.13 334.93 335.32 345.07 342.52 346.50 352.88 1 4 2 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 1 Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Construction $249.25 266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 398.52 425.41 421.77 432.75 423.57 430.03 428.46 420.78 425.07 422.60 434.90 459.41 436.91 433.42 443.91 $119.02 126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.95 198.42 195.89 198.40 198.42 198.74 199.69 200.63 201.61 201.61 204.16 203.52 200.63 204.16 204.48 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 4.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.4 4.7 6.8 3.2 4.6 5.2 4.1 -3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 3.1 -5.8 1.5 -1.3 1.7 -1.2 -1.9 1.4 -1.4 .9 -1.4 -1.1 .8 3.1 -.0 .9 1.2 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. 3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 21-062 0 - 8 3 - 2 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pc T hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outp ut Business sector x Compensation per hou r 3 all Hours of 2 perse n s Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor CO st Real com pensation 4 per h our Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implici t price defla tor 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 19rf7 = 100; ( [uarterly c ata seasoilally adjus ted 1969 85.5 86.5 79.0 78.8 92.5 91.1 54.2 54.8 89.6 90.6 63.4 63.4 63.2 63.3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.8 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.6 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.3 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.2 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 108.7 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 119.1 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.8 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.4 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 99.2 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.6 90.5 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 98.9 100.7 101.0 98.5 99.9 99.9 106.2 108.9 106.4 106.3 108.6 105.8 107.4 108.1 105.4 107.9 108.7 105.9 131.4 144.1 154.5 130.9 143.6 154.0 96.7 96.0 97.0 96.3 95.7 96.7 132.9 143.1 153.1 133.0 143.8 154.1 128.3 140.4 148.1 128.3 140.8 149.0 100.7 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.4 100.1 100.0 99.1 109.1 109.1 109.6 107.8 109.2 109.0 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.3 108.5 107.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 108.0 140.0 142.5 145.7 148.3 139.6 142.0 145.1 147.7 96.5 96.3 95.7 95.7 96.2 96.0 95.3 95.3 139.0 141.5 144.2 147.9 139.1 141.9 145.1 149.0 136.5 138.8 141.9 144.6 136.5 138.9 142.3 145.5 IV 100.1 100.4 101.3 102.0 99.3 99.5 100.4 100.4 106.3 106.4 106.7 105.9 106.0 106.1 106.3 104.9 106.2 106.0 105.3 103.9 106.7 106.6 105.9 104.5 151.1 153.5 155.9 158.0 150.6 152.8 155.3 157.4 96.8 97.1 96.7 97.6 96.5 96.6 96.4 97.2 150.9 152.9 153.8 154.9 151.6 153.5 154.7 156.7 145.9 147.5 149.1 150.1 146.6 148.1 149.8 151.5 Ir 102.6 101.6 107.1 106.5 104.5 104.8 159.8 159.7 98.8 98.7 155.8 157.2 1981: I n m IV 1982: I n m 1983: r r 152.2 r 153.3 Pe reent change; quarterly data a t seasonal] y adjusted annual rates 1969 0.2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 .8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -.9 1980 1981 1982 -.7 1.8 .3 1981: I 5.7 .0 1.2 n m IV 1982: I n.. m IV 1983: I -2.8 2.9 -0.3 .3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.3 -.9 1.4 .0 4.9 -1.2 3 -3.4 -.8 1.3 3.7 2.6 .7 .9 3.4 .4 2.2 4.7 r 2.9 2.6 .8 3.0 6.6 6.6 2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 2.1 1.6 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 1.5 2.5 2.3 7.9 __.! 1.9 -6.4 -5.4 .6 1.1 -3.0 4.7 7.0 6.5 1.5 1.1 6.7 6.8 4.9 4.7 £ 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.2 2.9 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.2 4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.5 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.7 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.3 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 -1.4 .4 2.2 1.0 .9 -1.7 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.0 5.7 7.1 8.8 -1.5 2.2 -2.5 -.8 .7 2.6 -.7 .7 -2.6 10.4 9.6 7.2 10.2 9.7 7.2 -2.8 -.7 1.0 2.9 -.6 1.0 11.2 7.7 7.0 11.2 8.1 7.2 9.4 9.5 5.5 10.2 9.7 5.8 7.2 -.8 .3 -7.1 2.1 -.1 .7 -3.7 2.2 .3 .6 -3.8 11.8 7.4 9.1 7.5 11.9 7.2 9.0 7.4 1.1 -1.0 -2.6 .2 1.2 -1.2 -2.7 .2 5.8 7.3 7.8 10.6 6.6 8.4 9.4 11.2 11.6 6.6 9.3 8.0 12.1 7.1 10.2 9.2 -4.2 .6 .7 -5.0 -4.6 -.7 -2.5 -5.5 -4.8 -.2 -2.6 -5.4 7.6 6.7 6.3 5.5 7.9 6.0 6.6 5.5 4.5 1.3 -1.4 3.5 4.8 .7 — 1.1 3.5 8.5 5.3 2.4 2.9 7.2 5.1 3.1 5.1 3.7 4.3 4.4 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.9 4.5 6.2 2.4 1.4 4.6 6.0 5.0 6.4 2.3 1.2 5.8 5.0 3.2 -1.3 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index. 16 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 2.1 percent in April following a rise of 1.2 percent in March. The index for April was 1.7 percent above its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 (RATIO SCALE) UTILITIES AND MINI NG PRODU CTION 180 P^x-,r—~s -> 160 160 , ^O UTILITIES 140 / S '"•V*' ^* *%——** 120 r/\\J/""^ MINING" 120 1979 1980 1981 1982 V % %% f \+* \ *• 1983 100 111 11 11111 1979 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 180 \ i i iiiIiiiii 1980 I 1 1 M I 1 1 1 1 1 i ii 11111111 Mill 1 1 1 11 1982 1983 1982 1981 1983 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) NONDURABLE . \- N 160 140 DURABLE1 120 60 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1979 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Seasonally adjusted] Total Capacity u tilization rate , percent * Industry pro< uction indexes , 1967 = 100 indus trial produ ction Manufa cturing Manufacturing • Index, 1967 = 100 1967 proportion 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1983: Jan r Feb r Mar r. Apr* 1 2 100.00 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 140.2 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 137.3 135.7 134.9 135.2 137.4 138.0 139.7 142.6 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Percent change from year earlier Mining Total 87.95 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 -7.7 -8.8 9.3 -9.8 -9.9 -9.4 -9.0 -7.8 -5.7 2.3 -3.4 — 1.4 1.7 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 138.7 137.9 137.7 138.1 138.0 137.1 135.0 134.0 134.5 136.7 138.0 139.9 142.9 Durable 51.98 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 126.7 126.1 125.5 125.9 124.9 123.5 120.3 119.3 119.9 122.5 123.7 125.9 129.0 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 156.1 155.0 155.3 155.7 156.9 156.7 156.2 155.3 155.6 157.4 158.6 160.1 163.1 6.36 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 134.1 128.9 123.5 120.1 116.9 114.7 115.9 116.8 118.4 121.9 115.5 113.7 113.4 5.69 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 171.0 170.9 169.4 167.7 168.5 167.5 167.8 166.7 164.2 163.1 161.8 164.8 167.3 Federal Reserve series 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 79.1 78.5 69.8 70.8 70.2 70.0 70.0 69.8 69.2 68.0 67.4 67.5 68.5 68.9 69.8 71.1 Commerce 2 senes * 81 83 84 83 78 76 70 71 69 68 Materials (Federal Reserve series) 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.4 80.0 79.9 68.9 70.5 69.4 68.8 68.5 68.2 67.7 66.6 65.7 65.2 67.3 68.3 69.3 70.7 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Prod uets Intermedia te products Final products Period C onsumer good s Total Total Durable goods Materials Equij ment Nondurable goods Total Total Business Construction supplies Supplementary group: Energy total 1967 proportion 47.82 27.68 7.89 19.79 20.14 12.63 12.89 6.42 39.29 12.23 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 125.6 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 137.2 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 142.6 142.2 142.1 142.5 141.2 140.0 138.7 138.3 139.5 142.1 143.6 144.8 145.8 144.1 143.4 142.2 141.3 142.0 130.7 132.6 134.6 137.3 132.9 131.3 126.5 124.6 125.9 146.6 147.9 148.8 149.1 148.6 148.2 148.5 147.9 148.4 143.4 140.4 138.4 138.0 137.3 135.2 134.0 134.2 136.1 164.9 159.9 156.7 154.9 153.9 150.5 147.1 146.4 148.1 143.7 142.6 141.9 142.8 144.7 143.7 141.6 141.8 141.5 123.6 122.2 123.1 124.1 127.1 125.5 122.5 123.4 123.0 136.2 134.3 133.5 133.0 132.8 132.0 130.0 128.4 127.8 136.7 136.5 136.2 136.4 134.8 132.7 134.1 133.3 132.2 140.1 139.2 140.3 142.9 143.6 143.9 144.7 147.7 131.6 134.4 135.0 139.3 148.3 147.6 148.6 151.0 135.3 132.8 134.3 136.4 146.6 142.8 144.1 146.7 143.7 145.1 147.4 150.5 127.0 129.6 132.1 135.5 132.0 134.3 136.5 139.5 132.4 131.3 132.0 134.0 1983: Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr* [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] IS endurable imanufacture s Durable m gtnufaetures Transp artation equip ment Primary metals Period Total Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 6.57 4.21 5.93 9.15 8.05 9.27 4.50 1.64 3.31 4.72 7.74 8.75 126.7 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 133.7 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 118.3 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 148.8 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dee 76.4 75.2 72.8 72.9 72.9 73.2 69.6 63.6 63.5 65.1 62.4 58.0 58.1 57.4 56.4 54.1 47.5 46.6 119.1 115.8 115.0 115.5 114.3 112.3 107.6 107.0 107.3 153.7 150.0 147.4 147.1 147.2 144.9 140.4 139.6 139.2 172.2 170.9 170.8 170.3 169.7 167.0 165.4 165.5 165.5 105.9 110.0 111.6 112.7 107.0 105.3 100.8 100.2 103.7 110.7 119.8 124.0 127.2 116.7 113.5 103.0 101.7 108.8 106.2 110.6 112.2 116.9 120.3 119.9 117.2 119.1 121.4 144.2 143.8 142.6 143.9 145.3 144.3 142.0 141.7 142.8 198.6 193.6 193.2 194.1 195.6 196.4 194.1 192.8 195.9 149.7 150.5 151.0 151.0 150.7 149.0 151.5 152.0 152.8 1983: J a n r Feb r Marr Apr" 73.1 77.0 80.7 83.9 59.0 64.7 68.7 107.6 110.2 112.2 115.3 138.0 135.7 138.7 142.2 169.5 169.3 173.1 178.5 106.3 109.8 110.3 111.9 113.9 123.0 123.3 125.5 130.0 130.2 132.1 141.3 144.0 145.4 147.7 197.6 200.0 201.6 154.4 153.8 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio n contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Resi dential Total Commercial and industrial New housing Total 1 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I •illions of dollars 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 238.2 229.6 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.2 179.4 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 75.0 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 53.8 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 52.0 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.4 50.6 39.1 1982: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan r Feb r Mar* Apr" 224.6 226.1 228.7 231.6 227.6 228.1 228.1 230.8 239.6 239.0 256.0 249.3 245.4 173.6 175.1 179.9 182.7 178.7 176.6 177.0 179.8 187.5 191.4 200.1 199.1 198.6 70.0 72.3 75.5 75.3 73.4 72.1 71.5 75.7 81.7 87.0 93.4 96.3 97.8 55.0 54.3 53.9 56.5 53.9 52.8 53.7 52.7 53.6 52.8 54.3 51.8 50.6 51.0 49.6 51.0 49.8 51.5 52.3 53.1 52.3 54.7 57.3 65.8 70.4 72.9 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 107.0 111.0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 48.6 48.5 50.6 50.9 51.4 51.7 51.8 51.4 52.2 51.7 52.4 51.0 50.2 592 739 977 1,059 904 906 685 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.1 53.0 50.2 51.0 51.0 48.8 48.9 48.9 51.4 51.1 51.0 52.1 47.6 55.9 50.2 46.8 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 734 707 645 778 694 717 671 656 608 595 803 693 632 652 110 94 94 111 98 112 117 105 122 131 r 127 119 131 129 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New prhrate homes New private housing units Units started, b]? type of structur e Period Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1,160.4 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1 unit 892.2 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 2-4 units 5 or more units 64.0 204.3 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 Units authorized 939.2 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 r 1,000.5 Units completed Homes sold 1,317.2 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 412 965 1,108 943 1,010 1,001 936 1,077 1,053 1,035 r 1,195 1,140 1,139 342 385 369 364 389 473 481 545 529 610 587 577 Homes for sale at end of period * Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 313 353 3 402 414 398 336 272 251 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Peb r Mar r. Apr" 911 1,028 910 1,185 1,046 1,134 1,142 1,361 1,280 1,694 1,784 1,627 1,490 583 622 617 625 651 683 716 868 842 1,126 1,103 1,023 983 65 85 86 96 87 90 66 79 79 100 117 102 127 263 321 207 464 308 361 360 414 359 468 564 502 380 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series \ ginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. r 880 r 951 924 r 1,065 r 928 r 1,029 r 1,154 r 1,227 r 1,326 r 1,447 1,479 1,467 1,536 r 264 258 254 250 248 247 245 246 251 259 264 263 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Seasonally adjusted units authorized revised beginning 1981; unadjusted beginning 1982. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade Business sales rose 1.8 percent in March and inventories fell $5 billion. According to the advance survey, total retail sales rose 1.6 percent in April following a rise of 1.7 percent in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 160 150 550 140 500 130 450 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES RETAIL INVENTORIES 120 110 400 100 350 v«,X"' 90 -TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 300 80 RETAIL SALES 70 250 60 200 50 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 RATIO* 1.80 - 150 1.70 - lIlllIlllli 100 1979 1982 1981 1979 1983 '1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total biisiness l Who esale Sales Period Sales Inven, • 3 tones •* 2 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory- s ales ratio 4 Retail Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 3 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 33,356 37,841 43,135 49,987 53,717 54,400 59,095 c 59,597 57,698 57,890 57,039 58,225 58,888 60,204 61,668 60,581 59,417 59,597 59,735 61,517 60,195 38,388 41,432 46,395 52,803 57,512 62,030 67,738 c 68,653 67,544 67,589 67,592 68,075 67,774 68,054 68,120 68,268 68,202 68,653 68,134 68,875 68,851 Total business l Ketail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb r Mar r. AprP 1 r 182,230 204,277 229,624 r 260,307 r 297,663 r 327,284 r 356,099 r 344, 179 r 347,061 r 344,934 r 353,110 r 349,742 r 347,676 r 343,426 r 342,882 r 336,905 r 338,722 r 338,388 r 345,337 341,490 347,641 288,375 318,544 r 351,036 r 398,890 r 450,736 r 492,885 r 526,152 r 511,942 r 520,440 r 523,370 r 519,119 52 1,040 r r 521,145 r 521,257 r 52 1,000 r 519,797 r 513,888 r 511,942 507,550 507,665 502,407 r 46,623 50,694 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 95,363 99,198 97,348 99,290 98,019 95,790 94,341 92,527 91,806 91,912 91,389 94,790 92,245 93,097 56,697 64,078 72,311 85,685 98,394 112,341 116,986 118,790 115,861 119,423 118,132 119,828 119,854 119.190 119,537 120,162 118,349 118,790 117,564 116,417 116,057 49,012 54,781 60,435 67,286 75,047 80,235 87,298 89,640 87,701 88,468 90,813 88,603 89,469 89,069 89,897 90,905 92,492 92,459 r 92,308 91,164 92,741 94,219 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly ata, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 15,247 18,150 20,724 23,218 25,196 24,401 26,335 26,739 25,973 26,718 28,127 26,136 26,124 25,831 26,619 27,154 28,721 28,723 28,307 27,490 28,841 29,989 c 33,765 36,631 39,711 44,067 49,850 55,834 60,963 62,901 61,728 61,750 62,686 62,467 63,345 63,238 63,278 63,751 63,771 63,736 r 64,001 63,674 63,900 64,230 71,744 79,273 89,530 102,790 111,229 116,430 126,833 c 128,250 125,242 125,479 124,631 126,300 126,662 128,258 129,788 128,849 127,619 128,250 127,869 130,392 129,046 1.57 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 r 1.44 r 1.51 r 1.50 r 1.52 r 1.47 r 1.49 r 1.50 r 1.52 r 1.52 r 1.54 r 1.52 r 1.51 r 1.47 1.49 1.45 1.44 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.40 1.41 1.43 1.42 1.37 1.43 1.42 1.44 1.44 1.42 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.43 1.39 Corrected 2 3 20 Note.—Total business (and manufacturing) revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In March, manufacturers' shipments and orders rose, while inventories fell. In April, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders rose again. _ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 360 320 ~ INVENT ORES 280 d 240 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 -^ —SHIPME NTS 200 180 160 , 1 f t 140 m^^ •"" ~ a / ***»»~ TOTAL ^™^%™* p^ ^ ^ 200 ^^*^~ ***^^ __ 120 100 ******* DURABLE GO(DOS _ 80 w •• *^ ^^^ •• ..^V^"'""-^ -A-jfluje^ - ^—"** \ Nor^DURABLE —f>tfii j« *^ .tt'*******1 ^^ ^^^~ "* '/''•' ... ....... DURABLE GC)ODS - 100 80 1 1111111111 1 1 111 11 1111 1 11 11111111 — i i i i i I i i i i i i , i ,, | 240 —NEW Of 3DERS 700 180 160 140 '•"7 ^^ 170 — / zx.~y ^~^ — ^^V-^SSwnnrt '""*</ N( )NDURABLE Q )ODS V " '"'^ 1.6 1.4 1 I M 1 I I 1 1 1 | i i i Ii1 i ii ii 1979 1980 M M l l l l l l l 1981 l l l l l i l M I I ! 1 1 111I 1I 1 I 1.2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 11111111111 1979 1980 1 1 1 11111 1 11 1 111 1 11 1111 1 11 1 1 111111 1982 1981 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufa icturers' ship ments 1 1 lanufaeturers ' new ordersi Manufa cturers' inveiitories 2 Durabl e goods Period Total Durable goods — K =vN^—1 - 1983 1982 i I i Il I I i i Ii l IIl iIi ii I I i i i i l I i l i lI i i i It 1 i ii ii INVENT*DRY-SHIPI\/IENTS RA'no 1.8 ^*« Ut-^ « 1 11 111 111 11 2.0 DURABLE GOO DS 80 ODS NO N DURABLE GO RAT o* 22 — 100 •••••^^ 60 40 _.^ "f i^ _/*™^ "^^^/^^^^F~*~*«*^ , TOTAL _ ^j-». — - 120 GO DDS BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO S CALE) """""""""""".f, "••••• / 60 — • TOTAL Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods 12,799 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,059 20,687 21,708 22,806 20,306 19,932 19,931 18,741 20,217 20,127 19,983 19,679 20,507 19,175 20,032 21,948 48,145 53,950 Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 Millions of doliars, seasoilally adjust ed 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Mar r Apr r. May r June r July r Aug r Sept r. Get r Nov r Dee r. 1983: Jan r Feb r Mar r. Apr" 1 2 3 4 98,802 113,202 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,177 160,162 159,118 163,007 163,120 162,417 160,016 160,458 154,194 154,318 154,540 158,239 158,081 161,803 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,843 78,730 77,808 79,680 79,197 78,856 77,250 76,419 72,478 73,005 73,495 77,744 77,769 79,595 80,016 48,113 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 81,432 81,310 83,327 83,923 83,561 82,766 84,039 81,716 81,313 81,045 80,495 80,312 82,208 175,193 189,195 210,415 241,113 264,114 282,333 264,902 279,337 278,468 276,356 274,912 274,629 273,809 271,675 270,786 267,920 264,902 262,117 260,856 257,304 112,581 121,575 137,834 160,554 174,547 186,222 175,200 184,319 184,053 183,378 182,811 182,099 181,543 180,520 179,675 177,061 175,200 172,506 171,572 169,377 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for 62,612 67,620 72,581 80,559 89,567 96,111 89,702 95,018 94,415 92,978 92,101 92,530 92,266 91,155 91,111 90,859 89,702 89,611 89,284 87,927 99,543 115,061 131,616 147,466 156,142 167,924 157,371 159,576 157,846 159,466 159,986 158,913 155,700 156,572 152,362 152,604 157,382 162,871 157,757 162,587 51,398 61,111 72,409 79,513 79,341 83,725 75,103 78,176 76,736 76,353 76,157 75,563 72,965 72,348 70,735 71,067 76,180 82,355 77,449 79,951 81,851 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,268 81,400 81,110 83,113 83,829 83,350 82,735 84,224 81,627 81,537 81,202 80,516 80,308 82,636 182,499 205,675 262,671 305,453 325,908 323,346 300,971 321,331 320,059 316,518 313,384 309,880 305,564 301,678 299,846 298,132 300,971 305,599 305,268 306,053 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.70 1.69 1.69 1.71 1.69 1.76 1.74 1.71 1.66 1.65 1.59 monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Note.—Series revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In April, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 1.2 percent, prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.5 percent, and prices of capital equipment fell 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 320 -FINISHED GOODS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 300 300 280 TOTAL FINISHED GOODS- 260 240 260 240 CONSUMER FOODS 220 -CAPITAL EQUIPMENT- 220 200 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 180 180 160 160 140 ! i 1111 i l l [ 120 1975 1976 120 1977 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Internicdiate ma terials Pin shed goods F nished go( ids excluding consumer foo Is Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer gc>ods 163.4 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 277.1 277.1 279.9 281.2 282.5 282.8 283.8 285.5 286.4 283.0 283.4 283.0 282.8 1 181.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.6 262.3 263.5 259.2 259.4 258.3 258.2 258.2 258.8 258.2 259.8 261.1 264.2 156.2 153.1 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 280.4 280.1 283.4 286.6 288.2 288.9 290.3 292.5 293.5 289.1 289.2 288.2 286.9 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 281.6 280.7 284.6 288.5 290.1 291.2 293.2 295.8 296.7 290.5 290.0 288.1 286.6 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 163.0 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 324.4 322.4 327.7 334.3 336.2 338.6 341.7 345.3 346.4 335.9 332.5 328.3 326.7 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 276.5 277.8 279.5 280.5 282.3 281.9 282.0 283.1 284.4 284.3 285.6 286.7 285.9 Total Total 1975 Nondurable Capital equipment Durable 138.2 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 224.3 225.0 226.8 227.4 228.6 227.8 228.5 229.8 230.4 229.8 232.8 233.8 232.4 Total H - L j consum 163.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 277.3 276.9 280.0 281.5 282.6 283.0 284.4 286.2 287.0 282.6 282.8 282.0 282.0 Total 180.0 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 308.4 308.7 309.7 310.3 310.3 310.8 310.9 311.7 311.8 310.8 310.5 308.3 307.6 Foods and feeds l 195.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 243.4 246.0 245.6 242.1 239.8 236.7 234.0 233,7 234.0 236.2 238.8 239.6 245.9 Cnide materials Other Total 178.6 189.4 202.3 196.9 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 320.8 326.4 325.8 322.1 319.1 315.4 314.3 317.3 316.6 315.6 317.6 319.4 323.9 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 313.3 313.3 314.5 315.3 315.6 316.3 316.6 317.4 317.5 316.3 315.8 313.4 312.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 191.8 206.9 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 255.7 261.0 258.6 251.0 246.9 239.5 237.0 239.4 240.3 243.0 248.8 250.5 258.0 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 461.5 467.7 470.8 475.4 474.8 478.6 480.4 484.8 480.6 471.9 465.8 468.0 466.3 CONSUMER PRICES In April, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted (0.7 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.9 percent above its level in April 1982. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 UNADJUSTED 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 160 140 140 120 120 1976 1975 1980 1982 1981 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Ti ansportati an Houising All She Iter Period All items l Food Total Renters' costs 2 NSA Rel. imp.5 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr 1 2 3 4 100.0 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294.1 293.6 292.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 19.0 175.4 180.8 192.2 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 283.3 285.4 287.1 287.6 286.9 287.5 288.1 288.2 288.1 288.3 288.3 290.1 291.3 21.3 169.7 179.0 191.1 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 331.1 336.4 340.6 342.5 344.0 342.3 342.6 340.7 336.0 338.3 339.1 339.2 341.6 6.9 100.2 100.8 101.1 101.3 101.7 Maintenance and repairs Eelative importance, December 1982. Fuel and Medical care Ener- items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 13.9 100.0 100.7 100.9 100.9 101.7 0.5 187.6 199.6 214.7 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 331.6 334.5 336.1 334.7 335.9 338.4 339.4 339.0 337.8 342.9 339.4 339.9 343.6 Includes items not shown separately. December 1982 = 100. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, tc. 5 37.7 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 309.4 313.6 316.8 318.4 319.7 319.3 320.5 319.9 317.4 318.9 318.9 318.7 320.4 Homeowners' costs 2 NSA Total J Apparel and upkeep omer utilities 8.4 167.8 182.7 202.2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 341.4 345.5 348.5 350.3 353.1 357.5 362.7 367.1 369.6 368.9 366.9 365.1 365.8 5.2 142.3 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 190.8 191.1 191.5 192.2 192.7 192.8 193.3 193.2 192.7 193.2 194.2 194.1 194.5 Total l 21.8 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 282.5 285.1 291.5 294.1 295.3 295.6 296.4 296.0 295.8 293.9 289.1 289.0 292.1 New cars Motor fuel 3 3.5 127.6 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 196.1 196.5 197.2 198.0 199.2 199.6 199.2 198.7 199.3 199.4 201.1 202.6 201.3 6.2 170.8 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 362.7 368.0 387.4 393.4 395.9 396.0 395.4 394.2 391.2 "378.3 353.0 349.5 363.2 6.0 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 321.4 324.2 327.2 330.5 333.4 336.3 338.7 341.8 344.4 347.2 350.1 351.7 353.3 gy 4 12.4 176.6 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 395.2 401.8 412.9 416.7 418.9 421.0 426.6 430.2 431.3 6 420.5 404.9 401.3 409.3 47.3 149.4 159.9 169.5 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 242.4 243.4 245.4 246.7 247.7 248.7 250.1 250.7 251.9 253.1 254.2 254.9 255.5 6 Inergy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Ch ange from p eceding period Change from 3 montl s earlier, ann ial rate Change from 6 montl is earlier, ann ual rate Consume»r goods Consum sr goods Consum er goods Total Period finished Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Cha nge, Dec. to Dec., N SA 13.0 18.3 1974 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 20.5 -2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 22.6 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 5.5 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 17.5 14.2 15.3 10.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 11.4 11.1 13.5 9.2 3.9 9.2 4.0 8.5 4.2 C lange, moiith to mon th 1982: 1983: Jan r Feb Mar r . Apr .1 _.4 -.0 0 .2 -.2 .6 .5 .1 — .1 — .1 -4.4 -5.4 2.3 4.9 2.1 1.5 2.4 7.7 9.6 6.7 8.1 7.8 5.2 5.9 6.6 3.5 2.2 1.1 3.6 2.7 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.9 6.2 4.7 3.3 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 .6 .1 -.7 0.2 .5 .6 .4 .6 .1 .0 .4 .5 0.3 -.6 4.6 6.1 8.0 4.2 3.7 4.3 5.2 -4.3 2.1 -1.6 -1.2 8.7 7.2 9.8 3.6 0.5 -.3 1.4 1.4 .6 .4 .7 .9 .3 1.6 .3 .5 0.1 0 1.0 .5 .5 .1 .4 .6 .3 Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r. .0 .5 .4 .3 1.1 0 2.5 3.6 9.6 — .2 -.7 -.5 -1.2 -2.9 -4.7 .3 10.2 14.1 -1.5 1.8 .8 -3.6 7.6 -11.1 -5.3 5.4 0 -1.7 0 2.6 3.9 7.2 8.2 2.4 1.2 .7 6.0 8.4 -2.6 -3.1 -3.5 11.0 8.7 -.8 .3 2.2 4.7 1.4 — .1 -2.1 -4.5 5.8 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Hotising Tr Misportation Shelter All items 1 Food Total l Total 1 Renters' costs Homeowners' Maintenance and NSA Period All items ApFuel and other utilities parel and upkeep Medical care Energy 3 Addendu m: All items percent charige (annual i ate) NSA Total l New cars Motor fuel 2 food, energy, and shelter From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Chang e, Decem ber to D ecembei , NSA 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 6.5 .6 8.0 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 4.3 3.1 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 8.7 5.5 7.1 7.2 11.5 17.4 15.1 10.1 10.3 10.6 9.9 2.4 9.2 4.2 7.3 4.2 11.2 9.0 8.1 5.9 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 7.3 11.0 9.9 11.6 2.6 4.9 10.1 6.9 7.2 8.0 1.7 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 -6.5 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 1.3 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 6.4 7.0 5.2 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 8.8 8.8 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 Change, month t(} month 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.2 1.0 0.2 .7 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.3 .9 0.2 1.2 0.1 .2 — 1.4 .9 0.2 .2 -5.8 1.5 1.0 .9 -2.5 1.7 0.5 .4 1.1 5.0 2.9 4.0 6.6 6.7 1.1 .6 .3 .1 .4 0 .6 .2 .2 .2 .2 .0 -.0 1.0 .5 .4 1.2 .6 .4 -.5 .1 -.6 .5 .2 .4 .3 .1 .3 2.2 .9 .4 .1 .3 — .1 — 1.4 — .4 — .1 — .1 .4 .4 .6 .2 -.2 -.3 .3 5.3 1.5 .6 .0 -.2 -.3 -.8 .9 1.0 .9 .9 .7 .9 .8 2.8 .9 .5 .5 1.3 .8 .3 .8 .5 .4 .4 .6 .2 .5 9.8 .4 .7 .3 -.1 .9 .5 .8 1.2 1.5 1.2 .7 5.5 6.1 6.6 6.9 7.2 5.1 2.3 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.0 5.1 4.6 3.9 -2.5 -3.7 .5 .4 .3 .2 1.4 .4 .5 .8 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr q .2 2 .1 .6 .1 0 .6 .4 — .1 .4 -.2 -.8 .5 0 r —.l .5 .7 .2 .0 .7 — .4 0.6 .3 .2 .4 1 Includes 2 Includes 3 0.7 2 .0 .8 1.5 -1.0 .1 1.1 -.2 -.5 -.5 .2 items not shown separately. direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, 6 °* Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 -.3 .3 .5 -.1 .2 -.6 -1.6 -.0 1.1 .1 .9 .7 -.6 -3.3 -6.7 -1.0 3.9 .8 .8 .5 .5 4 -.9 2.0 11.3 8.2 4.1 3.3 2.1 .5 — .4 -1.2 .4 2.1 Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 2.2 percent in April and prices paid by farmers rose were unchanged in the month ended April 15. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 60 1975 1976 1977 1983 !/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] I'rices Prices received by farm ers Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 All farm products Livestock and products Crops 101 102 100 115 132 134 105 102 100 105 116 139 133 125 134 121 paid by farmer s All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Ratio 2 Production items 89 89 91 143 144 95 100 108 123 138 150 156 95 100 109 125 139 151 154 97 100 108 125 138 148 149 113 107 100 106 107 97 93 85 98 101 100 124 147 144 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 135 139 137 137 133 135 128 128 127 123 126 125 125 117 124 114 117 114 147 151 149 148 147 146 142 140 139 155 156 156 157 157 157 156 156 156 154 155 155 155 155 154 153 154 153 149 150 151 151 150 149 148 149 148 87 89 88 87 85 86 82 82 81 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr 128 132 134 137 114 118 121 127 142 146 146 146 157 158 159 159 156 157 157 158 150 151 152 153 82 84 84 86 1 2 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes and wage rates. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Ml declined in April and growth slowed in the broader aggregates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE] 2,600 400 400 200 200 1975 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml Period 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Janr Feb r Mar r Apr* 3 1 M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) ! Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker /dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 1,023.0 1,161.7 389.0 414.1 440.6 478.2 1,163.5 1,286.4 1,388.5 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,794.9 1,959.5 1,296.3 1,451.8 1,613.5 1,758.4 1,936.7 2,167.9 2,377.6 449.3 452.4 453.4 454.4 458.3 463.2 468.7 474.0 478.2 482.1 491.1 497.6 496.5 1,835.2 1,850.6 1,864.5 1,880.9 1,903.6 1,917.0 1,929.7 1,945.0 1,959.5 2,008.1 2,048.2 2,067.2 2,072.7 2,224.1 2,240.7 2,260.2 2,283.4 2,317.8 2,333.9 2,352.0 2,370.2 2,377.6 2,401.4 2,428.1 2,444.6 2,453.8 291.1 310.4 335.5 363.2 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate. Percent shange from %year or 6 m onths earlier M2 M3 1,371.9 1,522.4 1,711.0 1,922.9 2,131.8 2,343.6 2,622.0 2,896.8 4.9 6.6 8.1 8.3 7.1 6.5 6.4 8.5 12.6 13.7 10.6 7.9 7.9 8.9 10.1 9.2 11.6 12.0 11.1 9.0 10.1 11.9 9.7 2,710.3 2,737.6 2,767.0 2,798.2 2,823.6 2,840.5 r 2,866.0 r 2,882.4 2,896.8 7.5 7.7 5.9 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.8 9.8 11.2 12.6 14.8 15.4 12.2 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.0 9.9 9.9 10.6 10.5 10.5 14.0 r !5.8 r !6.3 15.4 9.2 8.6 8.7 9.5 11.8 11.4 11.8 11.9 10.7 10.6 9.7 r 9.7 8.8 NOTE.—See page 26 for components. 2 26 Ml Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 9.4 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Dee: 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1983: Jan r.... Feb r Mar r Apr p Currency Demand deposits 1 Other checkable deposits (OCD) General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA Pp_:nj eriod Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA NSA Money market mutusil fund bala nces 73.9 80.6 88.6 97.5 106.3 116.2 123.2 132.8 214.1 224.4 239.7 253.8 262.0 266.8 236.4 239.8 2.7 4.2 8.4 17.0 26.9 76.6 101.3 5.8 10.6 14.7 20.3 21.2 28.4 36.1 44.3 2.7 2.4 2.4 6.4 33.4 61.4 150.9 182.2 0.4 .6 .9 3.1 9.5 14.9 36.0 47.6 126.3 127.4 128.2 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.3 131.9 132.8 233.3 233.1 232.3 232.1 232.5 234.0 236.0 237.6 239.8 85.3 87.4 88.4 89.1 91.8 94.3 97.0 100.1 101.3 36.8 40.1 40.3 41.8 42.4 41.5 43.9 45.2 44.3 161.8 164.9 170.1 172.9 182.3 185.1 187.6 191.1 182.2 134.2 135.6 137.0 138.0 239.4 238.7 240.1 238.9 104.5 112.5 116.0 115.0 47.3 48.8 48.6 50.4 166.7 159.6 154.0 146.7 0.9 Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small Large denomination time deposits 2 denomination time deposits 2 NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA Savings deposits NSA o tr Sav- bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances paper 76.8 80.8 8.4 8.8 48.0 51.7 11.8 21.6 26.7 31.6 40.6 44.9 62.9 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 108.8 40.2 41.3 41.6 42.0 41.3 41.4 42.8 43.1 44.9 109.7 112.1 115.7 118.7 112.0 113.7 112.3 107.3 108.8 446.0 521.8 635.9 731.7 828.6 859.7 129.9 118.2 145.2 194.9 222.2 258.9 302.6 333.8 8.4 14.2 19.5 27.1 30.1 34.8 37.2 40.3 9.7 13.1 18.4 29.0 41.5 48.0 65.3 80.1 79.5 72.3 67.7 67.9 89.7 99.3 128.7 156.9 176.3 217.6 43.2 345.9 346.6 347.2 345.0 346.7 350.0 358.0 366.4 358.7 847.2 852.5 859.3 872.9 879.8 883.2 878.0 874.9 859.7 321.2 322.1 327.4 332.1 334.9 336.1 339.6 340.4 333.8 38.1 37.0 36.3 34.5 37.0 36.4 37.7 39.4 40.3 77.9 83.8 84.7 83.7 80.9 80.6 r 81.1 r 79.5 80.1 67.7 67.7 67.7 67.6 67.5 67.5 67.6 67.8 67.9 190.7 192.1 197.2 202.9 204.1 r 203.6 r 210.3 r 214.5 217.6 189.1 277.7 320.5 341.2 332.5 322.1 319.0 318.7 798.1 756.1 735.0 726.8 310.7 297.9 296.3 300.8 C nm om- 40.6 40.8 41.7 43.1 388.8 43.2 453.0 491.6 481.2 423.1 400.7 344.4 358.7 34.3 35.6 36.6 40.4 47.1 48.2 49.3 49.9 47.6 46.1 45.2 43.5 41.0 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 338.1 391.0 67.2 71.7 76.4 80.2 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installinent credit e xtended Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Mar Apr May... June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dee 1983: Jan r Feb r Mar Total 2 Automobile 180,083 210,740 52,420 63,743 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 334,508 344,901 27,356 28,765 29,517 30,034 27,982 28,024 28,619 28,650 31,691 30,777 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 93,240 95,997 7,072 7,987 8,471 8,364 7,376 7,162 7,488 8,041 10,177 9,716 Installn lent credit Ikpidated Revolving Total 2 Automobile 36,956 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 139,829 150,061 12,329 12,487 12,775 13,367 12,658 12,728 12,705 12,614 12,778 12,491 172,675 189,179 49,444 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,291 331,805 26,723 27,142 27,673 28,011 27,143 27,768 27,363 28,781 29,676 28,359 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,745 91,099 7,353 7,441 7,378 7,395 7,339 7,542 7,139 8,111 8,643 8,225 1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding. 2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Revolving 35,616 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,362 145,696 11,806 11,834 12,024 12,640 12,100 12,529 12,394 12,533 12,739 11,990 Amount ou tstanding, end of period, sea sonally adjus ted Net change in arr ount outstanding l Total 2 7,408 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 18,217 13,096 633 1,623 1,844 2,023 839 256 1,256 -131 2,015 2,418 2,725 735 2,582 Automobile 2,976 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 8,495 4,898 -281 546 1,093 969 37 -380 349 70 1,534 1,491 625 -233 1,221 Revolving 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,467 4,365 523 653 751 727 558 199 311 81 39 501 68 135 1,177 Total 2 Automobile 169,387 57,279 67,798 82,890 101,863 116,523 116,808 125,323 130,235 125,783 126,258 126,970 127,727 127,628 127,271 127,473 127,694 128,824 130,235 130,860 130,627 131,848 190,725 226,646 269,392 307,115 308,137 326,274 339,316 328,999 330,634 332,142 333,884 334,276 334,343 335,180 335,593 336,897 339,316 342,041 342,776 345,358 Revolving 14,467 16,505 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,650 58,722 62,830 59,457 60,144 60,784 61,458 61,867 62,007 62,120 62,302 62,326 62,830 62,898 62,763 63,940 Note.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans declined in April. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,600 hALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 LOANS AND LEAS S 600 600 400 400 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES 200 180 160 140 120 200 180 160 ^ 140 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1975 1979 1977 1976 1982 1981 1980 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al I commercial banks 1 Loans a nd leases Period 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Total loans and investments 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.1 Total 2 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 1,042.0 Commercial and industrial loans 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.4 Depo sitory instituticms 3 Reserves adjust ed Invest]nents U.S. Treasury securities 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 Other securities 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.1 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1,352.5 1,362.0 1,368.8 1,376.1 1,383.1 1,389.4 1,397.5 1,398.5 1,412.1 1,002.0 1,010.8 1,017.1 1,023.7 1,028.3 1,033.5 1,038.1 1,036.4 1,042.0 373.1 378.9 383.4 386.7 387.9 392.5 394.8 392.0 392.4 116.6 116.3 115.8 116.5 117.8 118.2 122.3 126.4 130.9 234.0 234.9 235.9 235.9 237.1 237.6 237.2 235.8 239.1 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr^ 1,428.2 1,436.5 1,450.2 1,460.9 1,045.1 1,048.8 1,056.3 1,059.6 395.2 394.9 396.2 393.0 139.8 144.5 151.0 157.9 243.3 243.2 242.8 243.4 1 2 3 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 28 Borr swings (millions of dollars, unad usted) for changes in re serve requireinents Total Nonborrowed r 29.75 r 31.15 r 32.83 r 34.23 r 36.23 r 37.93 r r 29.70 r 30.58 r 31.96 r 32.76 r 34.54 r 37.29 r r 38.66 r 38.77 r r 37.09 r 37.66 r 37.75 r 38.32 r 38.69 r 40.78 38.96 r 39.01 r 39.21 r 39.66 r 39.93 r 40.41 r 40.78 r 40.12 r 40.34 41.00 41.30 r 40.15 Required r 29.48 r 30.96 r 32.59 r 33.91 r 35.71 r 37.61 r 40.28 r 38.38 r 40.15 38.41 38.65 38.69 38.89 39.27 - 39.53 r 40.01 r 40.28 r 39.59 r 39.76 r r 39.57 r 39.91 r 38.72 r 39.45 r 39.79 r 40.21 40.30 Total r r r r r 40.57 40.83 Seasonal 62 12 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 697 54 134 82 116 53 33 1,581 1,105 1,205 669 510 976 455 579 697 167 237 239 225 119 102 86 47 33 500 557 850 995 33 39 53 82 r NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal C redit market fimds 1 Total 192.4 1973 1974 1975 190.1 156.9 210.8 252.2 315.4 346.3 333.7 352.2 319.4 348.9 345.0 310.5 350.9 335.3 280.8 373.4 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1981: III IV 1982: l rr nr m T. IV 1983: lp 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 197.5 231.1 236.1 235.2 241.4 232.6 234.3 240.1 237.5 248.8 100.7 104.4 37.2 76.6 94.9 139.7 157.5 136.2 121.1 83.3 113.7 103.6 77.9 116.6 95.2 43.3 124.6 mortgages Loans and short-term paper 20.7 26.3 38.7 38.2 33.9 31.9 25.9 57.5 23.1 51.5 3.2 12.7 27.9 39.9 47.8 90.4 77.9 36.0 43.6 -8.0 16.3 36.5 47.4 65.3 38.2 69.6 43.3 97.0 69.9 77.2 60.4 60.2 24.3 22.7 Securities Total and 56.7 69.9 30.7 54.5 70.4 79.3 91.2 95.7 92.6 94.8 100.2 82.5 105.1 100.3 108.0 66.1 100.6 1 Total Other 2 44.0 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.5 60.4 66.3 40.6 28.5 -11. 7 13.5 21.1 -27.1 16.3 -12.8 -22.8 24.0 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 294.2 347.1 317.9 314.8 271.5 304.6 284.0 240.4 284.4 306.7 254.3 322.1 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets 121.5 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 202.2 219.8 220.5 260.9 246.2 284.6 265.5 241.9 248.4 268.2 226.3 237.9 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 97.4 53.9 25.3 20.0 18.5 -1.5 36.0 38.5 28.0 84.2 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 0.5 .0 6.0 9.0 14.7 21.2 -.8 15.8 37.4 48.0 44.2 61.0 70.2 66.5 28.7 26.5 51.3 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1982. _, _ , , _ _ , _ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abr °af , , . . , . , ,, , - - , TT 0 ^ Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] C urrent liabiliti 3S Curren t assets U.S. End of period Total SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FTC-FEB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 r 1982 1981: III r IV r 1982: I r r II Ill IV Cash Government securities 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,218.2 1,333.5 1,426.8 1,430.9 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 127.1 131.9 143.7 125.1 131.9 122.0 124.4 126.9 143.7 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.3 17.0 19.3 18.0 23.1 18.1 18.0 16.9 17.1 19.6 23.1 1,410.5 1,426.8 1,424.6 1,422.6 1,446.9 1,430.9 1 Notes and accounts receivable 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 461.1 510.6 536.2 517.0 542.0 536.2 539.2 536.8 539.7 517.0 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. 2 3 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. Other current assets Inventories Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.6 505.5 543.7 587.1 577.5 577.0 587.1 592.7 588.4 598.0 577.5 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.3 116.7 132.7 153.6 169.6 148.3 153.6 153.7 155.8 162.7 169.6 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.3 807.8 890.9 979.5 976.5 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 382.9 461.2 515.2 562.4 548.7 966.7 979.5 549.0 562.4 988.0 987.5 1,005.2 976.5 555.5 555.1 559.7 548.7 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.4 346.6 375.7 417.1 427.8 417.7 417.1 432.5 432.4 445.5 427.8 Net working capital 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.4 410.5 442.6 447.3 454.4 443.7 447.3 436.6 435.1 441.7 454.4 Current ratio 1 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.508 1.497 1.457 1.465 1.459 1.457 1.442 1.441 1.439 1.465 See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Data revised beginning 1981. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in early May and then rose. PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1983 1975 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS :: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S.I\easury security yields Period 3-month bills x Constant nnaturities 3-year 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May p Week ended: 1983: Apr 2 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 p 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 4 4 5.265 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.077 10.686 12.821 12.148 12.108 11.914 9.006 8.196 7.750 8.042 8.013 7.810 8.130 8.304 8.252 8.19 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 14.18 13.77 14.48 14.00 12.62 12.03 10.62 9.98 9.88 9.64 9.91 9.84 9.76 9.63 7.42 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 13.87 13.62 14.30 13.95 13.06 12.34 10.91 10.55 10.54 10.46 10.72 10.51 10.40 10.36 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 12.45 11.99 12.42 12.11 11.12 10.61 9.59 9.97 9.91 9.45 9.48 9.16 8.96 9.03 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 14.46 14.26 14.81 14.61 13.71 12.94 12.12 11.68 11.83 11.79 12.01 11.73 r !1.51 11.43 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 13.64 13.02 13.79 13.00 10.80 10.86 9.21 8.72 8.50 8.15 8.39 8.48 8.48 8.28 8.680 8.664 8.165 8.030 8.150 8.04 8.14 8.10 8.46 10.06 9.90 9.71 9.77 9.68 9.43 9.45 9.69 9.97 10.62 10.52 10.37 10.38 10.33 10.19 10.21 10.45 10,59 9.35 9.13 8.93 9.07 8.72 8.77 8.83 9.18 9.33 11.75 11.66 11.51 11.46 r 11.43 11.29 11.29 11.54 11.66 8.90 8.70 8.44 8.38 8.30 8.14 8.11 8.33 8.56 6.69 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for vear; high and low rate for month and week. 30 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 8.02 8.73 4 5.61 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 5 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-12.00 12.00-11.50 11.50-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 Prime rate charged by banks 5 6.83 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-16.50 16.50-15.50 15.50-13.50 13.50-13.50 13.50-12.00 12.00-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 9.02 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 15.84 15.89 15.40 15.70 15.68 14.98 14.41 13.81 13.69 13.49 13.16 r 13.41 12.44 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 8.50-8.50 10.50-10.50 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Eates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose again in May. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 1001 100 90 90 80 70 70 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX _(NYSE) . 60 . * f\J 60 50 50 i iiIi 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINGS- PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 1975 1976 1977 1983 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Co mmon stock priceJ S 1 Common st ock yields (perce nt) 5 Ne^«r York Stock Ex change indexes C )ee. 31, 1965 = 5 O) 2 Period Composite 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May" Week ended: 1983: Apr 2 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 p 1 2 3 4 5 Industrial Transporta- Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Dividendprice ratio 53.69 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 66.97 67.07 63.10 62.82 62.91 70.21 76.10 79.75 80.30 83.25 84.74 87.50 90.61 94.64 57.86 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 75.59 75.97 71.59 71.37 70.98 80.08 86.67 90.76 92.00 95.37 97.26 100.61 104.46 109.46 41.09 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 57.91 56.84 53.07 53.40 53.98 61.39 66.64 71.92 73.40 75.65 79.44 83.28 85.26 89.09 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 39.20 39.40 37.34 37.20 38.19 40.36 42.67 43.46 42.93 45.59 45.92 45.89 46.22 47.64 55.25 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 71.44 69.16 63.19 61.59 62.84 69.66 80.59 88.66 86.22 85.66 86.57 93.22 99.07 102.50 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 844.96 846.72 804.37 818.41 832.11 917.27 988.71 1,027.76 1,033.08 1,064.29 1,087.43 1,129.58 1,168.43 1,213.50 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 116.31 116.35 109.70 109.38 109.65 122.43 132.66 138.10 139.37 144.27 146.80 151.88 157.71 164.18 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 5.99 5.97 6.28 6.31 6.32 5.63 5.12 4.92 4.93 4.79 4.74 4.59 4.44 4.27 87.69 87.54 90.12 91.86 92.91 93.96 95.11 94.09 95.38 101.00 100.82 103.89 105.81 107.32 108.59 109.94 108.80 110.49 83.93 83.00 84.83 87.14 86.05 87.57 89.95 88.53 90.33 45.34 45.31 45.90 46.75 46.92 47.53 47.88 47.48 47.67 94.08 94.03 98.84 101.49 101.94 102.05 103.52 101.70 102.72 1,134.46 1,120.72 1,156.08 1,186.76 1,210.16 1,215.46 1,222.16 1,198.74 1,217.65 152.45 152.11 156.92 159.93 161.89 163.63 165.17 162.90 165.02 Earningsprice ratio 4.56 4.63 4.46 4.35 4.33 4.30 4.26 4.30 4.23 40.92 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the* stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Jiiarnings- Finance Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 4 894.63 98.20 96.02 4.62 10.79 12.03 13.46 12..66 11.96 11.59 12.93 r !1.26 8.92 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor- 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 7 months of fiscal year 1983, there was a budget deficit of $132.5 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $62.2 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 400 300 -100 -100 -200 -200 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (estimates) l 1984 (estimates) l Cumulative total first 7 months: Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 1 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, April 1983. 32 Budget receipts Budget outlays Budget surplus or deficit (-) Off-budget outlays 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 598.3 653.7 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 808.5 843.9 -14.8 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -44.9 -48.8 -27.7 -59.6 -57.9 -110.6 210.2 -190.2 8.1 7.3 1.8 8.7 10.4 12.5 14.2 21.0 17.3 16.8 14.4 365.4 343.1 427.6 475.6 -62.2 -132.5 6.5 3.9 207.3 230.8 -23.4 .1 1.4 Total surplus or deficit (-) Federal debt (end of period) Gross Held by the public -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 78.9 -127.9 227.0 -204.7 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,392.0 1,622.6 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,146.4 1,350.4 68.7 -136.4 1,070.7 1,252.7 865.3 1,049.7 -23.4 14.9 -6.1 53.2 437.3 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 7 months of fiscal year 1983, budget receipts were $22.3 billion lower than a year earlier and budget outlays were $48.0 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 200 100 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 NONDEFENSE \ ^ ^*** 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1982 1981 1980 1984 1983 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] ] Budget outlays Budget r seeipts Nation al defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Other Total Total Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (estimates) 1 1984 (estimates) l 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 598.3 653.7 94.7 103.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.2 294.2 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 33.4 54.2 80.4 91.4 105.7 116.1 125.0 34.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 270.8 276.7 305.3 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 808.5 843.9 76.6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.4 214.8 245.4 Cumulative total first 7 months: Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 365.4 343.1 178.8 173.6 30.2 17.1 156.3 152.4 427.6 475.6 106.7 120.8 1 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, April 1983. NOTE.—One substantial change was made in the January 1983 Budget in the functional classification: the interest function was changed to net interest. Formerly, the interest function total included all Treasury interest payments, including those made to trust funds. The new net interest func- tional total : netted out. Department of Defense, military International affairs 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.1 182.9 209.0 236.7 4.7 4.1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.1 10.0 11.9 13.4 104.2 117.6 6.8 5.6 75.1 73.2 77.6 Health and income security Net interest Other 158.9 41.0 174.5 187.4 207.1 248.3 291.1 322.4 361.7 367.1 15.5 17.3 21.4 23.2 26.7 6.9 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 84.7 88.0 102.3 53.9 59.3 58.2 74.2 83.9 21.8 93.8 114.4 117.5 129.3 126.5 123.9 132.1 115.7 185.5 211.9 56.3 60.1 72.3 77.3 80.0 90.4 104.8 134.3 the amount paid by the Treasury to the public. Intragovernmental payments are Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $14.9 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell $15.4 billion, yielding a deficit of $173.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 800 500 500 400 400 300 300 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -100 -100 -200 -200 1976 1975 1977 1980 1979 1978 1983 1982 1981 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesi Federa Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Calendar year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: III IV 1982: I II Ill IV 431.6 493.6 540.7 628.2 613.9 640.2 625.7 609.9 617.0 613.7 615.0 1983: I r 629.9 414.3 480.8 525.1 614.7 618.2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals 186.5 222.6 67.3 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal jovernment expenditures Total Contributions for social insurance 76.1 70.0 70.9 50.1 27.2 29.1 34.7 55.7 50.7 153.1 170.3 196.3 214.4 450.4 495.6 577.0 666.5 739.7 150.4 164.1 189.8 218.1 250.1 307.9 300.9 299.9 305.8 295.6 299.2 71.3 74.2 70.3 67.3 47.2 68.4 59.1 46.5 45.2 49.8 47.3 28.1 29.4 38.9 58.5 50.0 57.8 57.2 48.7 49.8 50.8 50.7 137.2 159.5 174.1 204.3 216.6 206.1 208.4 214.9 216.2 217.5 217.8 461.0 509.7 602.1 688.2 763.4 698.2 727.4 728.3 736.6 769.7 819.2 297.8 53.8 50.9 227.4 803.8 250.1 291.7 303.0 194.9 230.6 257.5 298.1 300.1 133.3 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 33.5 40.6 279.2 310.8 74.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 257.9 230.0 250.5 249.7 244.3 259.0 278.7 185.6 209.2 251.4 286.6 322.2 295.1 300.7 303.2 312.8 327.4 345.3 77.3 80.5 88.7 87.7 83.7 86.3 83.6 83.0 85.0 82.0 84.6 35.2 42.4 53.1 71.9 85.0 74.0 79.0 79.6 82.8 88.7 89.1 9.5 9.2 11.7 13.1 14.6 13.0 13.6 12.7 11.6 12.6 21.4 274.0 339.8 85.2 88.6 16.2 182.2 201.8 239.4 50.6 66.2 82.5 9.7 9.9 10.5 13.1 12.8 Surplus or deficit Less: Wage accruals less disbursements national income and product accounts .0 -.0 .0 .1 .1 -36.1 -14.8 -51.9 -51.9 121.5 .0 .0 -.0 .0 .0 -29.5 -.2 .0 .0 .0 16.1 — 61.4 60.0 -149.5 -58.0 -101.7 -118.4 119.6 - 156.0 -204.2 .0 -173.9 .2 -.1 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Consunn?r prices ( anadjusted) Indu strial proc uction (seiisonally adji sted) Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982" 1982: May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr* 3 1 United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 137.3 135.7 134.9 135.2 r 137.4 r 138.0 r 139.7 142.6 148.5 152.2 157.8 167.4 164.6 167.3 r 149.3 153.5 149.6 144.8 151.2 146.1 141.6 r 142.5 r 140.6 r 148.7 151.3 182.0 189.7 201.1 r 215.3 r 225.2 r 227.5 r 228.4 r 224.3 r 229.0 r 228.2 r 227.9 r 230.9 r 223.4 r 229.5 r 227.9 r 227.3 r 225.9 228.4 149 152 154 161 160 157 155 157 159 151 151 154 156 156 r !55 156 149.1 152.0 154.1 161.8 162.3 159.9 r 156.3 160 157 151 157 154 152 152 151 r !54 154 143.5 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.0 160.4 154.0 158.6 127.5 153.6 147.4 152.0 150.0 150.0 148.9 146.7 r!56 155 United States l United Kingdom Japan France Germany 172.1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.4 301.5 304.5 306.1 307.6 309.2 311.2 313.3 313.4 312.5 313.9 317.1 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.2 296.2 304.0 303.8 303.8 301.5 303.8 309.1 310.0 306.6 306.0 306.6 305.5 307.5 196.1 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 372.4 371.1 373.7 374.7 375.9 377.5 379.5 383.2 386.4 390.1 392.9 396.5 150.4 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 196.2 195.2 197.1 197.6 197.3 197.9 198.5 198.9 199.4 199.8 200.0 199.8 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 287.1 290.6 292.2 292.8 293.3 294.1 293.6 292.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 117.4 123.0 127.0 132.2 r !23.7 118.8 r 119.6 120.5 r 118.6 r 119.6 r l!9.7 r 120.1 r l!9.7 r l!7.8 r 120.5 120.5 122.3 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Canada Italy 218.1 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 539.8 545.2 553.4 563.4 571.3 582.7 590.3 594.4 602.7 610.5 616.0 622.2 United Kingdom 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 517.3 518.9 518.9 519.0 518.7 521.3 523.9 522.9 523.5 525.8 526.7 tration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators, Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Adminis- U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Mer chandise exp<)rts 1 Period Total domestic and foreign exports Geileral import s Domestic exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merch andise trade balance Merc handise im >orts Manufactured goods Total 2 3 Exports Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 827 991 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 n q \ less imports (customs value) 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.8.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 a Food, beverages, and tobacco 148 - 1 ,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 3,030 ]?.a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 Customs value 1981 1982 19,473 17,683 19,075 17,256 2,767 2,248 2,752 2,793 12,857 11,643 21,748 20,329 1,529 1,485 7,739 6,200 11,873 12,002 22,779 -2,275 2,647 21,240 -3,306 -3,558 1982: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 18,462 18,005 18,124 18,823 18,060 17,463 17,320 16,671 15,852 16,347 17,986 17,603 17,713 18,387 17,671 17,143 16,584 16,284 15,476 15,913 2,665 2,495 2,465 2,418 1,902 2,153 1,926 2,128 2,051 1,966 3,012 2,943 2,880 2,828 2,698 2,694 2,751 2,688 2,440 2,420 11,829 11,555 11,788 12,536 12,536 11,804 11,331 10,942 10,484 10,648 20,019 17,714 20,477 21,187 19,849 22,930 20,581 21,006 18,892 19,154 1,455 1,443 1,541 1,537 1,436 1,681 1,701 1,686 1,499 1,414 5,725 5,035 4,909 6,175 6,671 7,195 5,917 6,727 5,785 6,158 12,138 10,654 13,163 12,830 11,200 13,456 12,304 11,903 10,978 10,988 20,889 18,508 21,422 22,129 20,756 23,992 21,518 21,932 19,737 20,002 -1,557 291 -2,353 -2,364 -1,790 -5,467 -3,261 -4,335 -3,041 -2,808 -2,427 -503 -3,297 -3,306 2,697 -6,529 -4,198 -5,261 -3,885 -3,655 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr 17,393 16,326 16,752 16,074 17,007 15,984 16,335 15,722 2,312 2,224 2,307 2,079 2,760 2,443 2,375 2,549 11,263 10,743 11,062 10,545 20,021 19,015 19,525 1,582 1,530 1,479 5,911 4,413 4,655 11,981 12,561 12,672 20,962 -2,628 19,906 -2,689 20,381 -2,774 20,675 -3,569 -3,580 -3,630 -4,601 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is- lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. *Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Data are as revised for 1982 months in March issue. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the first quarter of 1983, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $8.4 billion from $12.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 -15 SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (-}-), debits (—)] Merchandise l ' Period In vestment incontie 3 Net travel and transportation receipts Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services 1 -3,184 -2,792 -2,558 -3,293 -3,125 -2,429 -940 -231 -1,333 3,986 4,598 4,711 5,224 5,955 5,690 7,144 7,702 8,079 9,309 22,893 9,382 -9,451 -9,743 5,095 8,303 11,079 -225 -495 -139 200 203 1,838 1,981 1,960 1,924 4,667 2,909 2,559 943 -1,422 -1,510 -1,808 -1,870 3,245 1,399 751 -927 -42 -295 -334 -662 2,028 2,044 1,980 2,026 3,082 3,928 -3,565 -3,672 -2,048 -1,740 -1,649 -2,431 1,034 2,188 -5,214 -6,103 Exports Imports Net balance 98,306 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 236,254 211,013 -103,649 -98,041 -124,051 -151,689 -175,813 — 211,819 -249,575 -264,143 -247,344 -5,343 9,047 9,306 -30,873 33,759 -27,346 25,338 -27,889 36,331 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,129 72,686 85,945 85,901 -12,084 -12,564 -13,311 -14,217 -21,680 -32,914 -42,776 -52,908 57,181 15,503 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,215 29,910 33,037 28,720 -1,653 -746 559 1,528 621 -2,035 -2,471 -1,541 640 1981: I II HI IV 60,683 60,284 57,694 57,593 -64,995 -66,831 -65,539 -66,778 4,312 -6,547 -7,845 -9,185 20,528 21,642 22,048 21,727 -12,405 — 13,441 -13,865 -13,198 8,123 8,201 8,183 8,529 -487 -587 61 -528 1982: I 55,607 55,001 52,334 48,071 -61,545 -60,763 -64,829 -60,207 -5,938 -5,762 -12,495 -12,136 20,896 22,568 21,626 20,811 -14,029 -14,874 - 14,544 -13,735 6,867 7,694 7,082 7,076 167 247 201 24 49,986 -58,416 -8,430 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p n in ^P 1983: lp. 1 Receipts Payments Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 36 Net Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Net military transactions . Balance on current account 2,124 -7,186 18,280 -4,613 4,384 -4,998 -4,617 -14,068 -5,030 -14,773 -5,561 -466 -6,783 1,520 -6,608 4,471 -7,868 -8,093 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Among capital account transactions, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $106.7 billion in 1982, compared with an $84.5 billion increase in 1981. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $69.8 billion in 1982, compared with a $44.2 billion increase in 1981. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 40 40 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS . IN THE U.S., NET A \. 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the 1J.S., net [increase3 /capital inflowv ( + )] 2 1 increase /capit al outflow (— )] Period Total Other U.S. Governassets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -22,874 -34,745 -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,344 -86,026 - 109,294 -118,265 -1,467 -849 2,558 -375 732 1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -2,644 366 -3,474 4,214 -3,693 4,660 -3,743 5,126 -5,137 5,766 -20,388 -33,643 -35,380 -44,498 -30,717 57,202 -59,469 -72,746 -98,982 107,535 34,241 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,460 54,484 77,921 84,494 6,026 10,546 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 -13,697 15,442 4,785 3,043 12,362 23,696 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,157 39,042 73,136 81,451 -22,796 -21,566 -17,257 -47,677 -4,529 -905 _4 262 -1,375 -1,518 -1,257 -987 -16,892 -19,143 -15,996 -46,952 8,470 13,464 16,880 39,107 5,361 -2,861 -5,835 8,119 3,109 16,324 22,715 30,988 -31,257 -37,845 m p -25,597 IV ... -23,567 -1,089 -1,132 _794 -1,949 -904 -1,547 -2,496 -818 -29,264 35,166 -22,307 20,800 25,080 29,619 16,672 13,123 -3,122 1,998 2,494 1,673 28,202 27,621 -14,178 11,451 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982P 1981: I n m IV 1982: U.S. official reserve assets l 2 I II 158 18,388 1 Consists of go!d, special drawiiig rights (SDKs) , convertible cui reneies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF 2 Quarterly data are not seasonal! y adjusted. Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDRs) 1,139 1,152 1,093 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy TT *•! official assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 14,378 15,883 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 -2,654 -1,620 5,753 10,367 -2,465 11,866 25,212 28,870 25,809 41,864 9,988 6,703 -374 9,497 -2,144 2,474 30,410 29,582 29,715 30,074 5,142 6,038 14,139 16,546 802 672 -1,904 2,035 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 -829 503 Sources: D spartment of C(>mmerce (Burea i of Economic A nalysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Pa«e Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. ... Not available (also, not applicable). For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign). Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing. 38 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 0—21-062
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