Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1978

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95tb Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
May 1978

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers




UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1978

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman
LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
SENATE
JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)
HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)
ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PARREN I. MITCHELL (Maryland)
GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)
JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
GARRY BROWN (Michigan)
JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CHARLES L. SCHUL1ZE, Chairman
LYLE E. GRAMLEY
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitl d "Economic Indicators'*
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/* and that a
sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at
Arms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to
the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branchy Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy
or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from:




SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

According to revised estimates for the first quarter, gross national product rose $31.6 billion or 6.6 percent, both
at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 7.1 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
2,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
2,200

2,000

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000
1970

1971

1977

SOUXCEi DEPARTMENT .OF COMMERCE

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

(Billions of curren t dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ra1bes]
Gross
national
product

Period

Personal
Gross
conprivate
sump- domestion
tic
exinvestpend- ment
itures

Go\rernment purchases of goods and

Export s and imp orts of
good s and sen/ices

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total

Total

services
Federal
National
defense l

Nonde-

fense

State
and
local

Final
sales

-10.9

45.6
49.9
54.7
62.5
65.6
72.7
101.6
137.9
147.3
162.9
174.7

40.6
47.7
52.9
58.5
64.0
75.9
94. 4
131.9
126.9
155. 1
185.6

180.2
198.7
207. 9
218.9
233.7
253. 1
269.5
302.7
338.9
361.4
395.0

90.9
98.0
97.5
95.6
96.2
102. 1
102.2
111. 1
123.3
130. 1
145. 4

71.5
76.9
76.3
73.5
70.2
73.5
73.5
77.0
83.9
86.8
94. 3

19.5
21.2
21.2
22. 1
26.0
28.6
28.7
34.1
39.4
43.3
51.1

89.3
100.7
110.4
123.2
137.5
151.0
167. 3
191.5
215.6
231.2
249.6

786.2
860.8
926.2
978.6
1, 057. 1
1, 161. 7
1, 288. 6
1, 404. 0
1, 540. 3
1, 693. 1
1, 871. 4

254.3
243.4

7.9
3.0

168.4
168.5

160.6
165.6

363.0
370.0

130.2
134.2

86. 4
88.4

43.8
45.8

232.7
235.8

1, 705. 8
1, 756. 3

1, 810. 8 1, 172. 4
1977: I
II... 1, 869. 9 1, 194. 0
m._ 1, 915. 9 1, 218. 9
IV... 1, 961. 8 1, 259. 5

271.8
294.9
303.6
306.7

-8.2
-9.7
-7.5
-18. 2

170.4
178. 1
179.9
170.6

178.6
187.7
187.4
188.8

374.9
390.6
400.9
413.8

136.3
143.6
148. 1
153.8

89.7
93.4
95.6
98.5

46.7
50.2
52.5
55. 2

238.5
247.0
252. 9
260.0

1, 797. 0
1, 848. 2
1, 892. 2
1, 948. 2

1, 993. 4 1, 281. 9

319.5

-24.6

180.3

204.8

416.6

152.7

99.5

53.2

263.9

1, 973. 7

796.3 490. 4
868.5 535.9
935.5 579.7
982.4 618.8
1, 063. 4 668.2
1, 171. 1 733.0
1, 306. 6 809.9
1, 412. 9 889.6
1, 528. 8 980. 4
1, 706. 5 1, 094. 0
1, 889. 6 1, 211. 2

120.8
131.5
146.2
140. 8
160.0
188.3
220.0
214.6
189. 1
243.3
294.2

1976: III— 1, 727. 3 1, 102. 2
IV... 1, 755. 4 1, 139. 0

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

1978: I

4.9
2.3
1.8
3.9
1.6

-3.3
7. 1
6.0

20.4

7.8

* This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,
shown on p. 33.




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
EXJ>orts of gc>ods
Gross Drivate do mestic
Periiivestment
and service5S
sonal
conGross
national sumpChange
Nonproduct
tion
Resi- in busi"Wrvf
resiJNet
Exports Imports
expend- dential dential ness in- exports
ventofixed
itures
fixed
ries

Period

Governinent purehases of
goodIs and serdees

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Final
sales

1, 007. 7
1, 051. 8
1, 078. 8
1, 075. 3
1, 107. 5
1, 171. 1
1, 235. 0
1, 217. 8
1, 202. 1
1, 274. 7
1, 337. 3

603.2
633.4
655. 4
668.9
691.9
733.0
767.7
760.7
775. 1
821.3
861.2

103.5
108.0
114.3
110.0
108.0
116.8
131.0
130.6
112.7
116.8
126.8

37.2
42.8
43.2
40.4
52.2
62.0
59.7
45.0
38.8
47.7
56.9

12.0
8.7
10.6
4.3
6.6
9.4
16.5
8.0
-9.9
8.5
11.8

3.5
-.4
-1.3
1.4
-.6
-3.3
7.6
15.9
22.5
16.0
9.5

542
58.5
62.2
67. 1
67.9
72.7
87.4
93.0
89.9
95.8
97.5

50.7
58.9
63.5
65.7
68.5
75.9
79.9
77.1
67.4
79.8
88.0

248.3
259.2
256.7
250.2
249.4
253.1
252.5
257.7
263.0
2644
271.1

125.3
128. 3
121.8
110.7
103.9
102.1
96.6
95.8
96.7
96.5
101.4

123. 1
130.9
1349
139.5
145. 5
151.0
155.9
161.8
166.3
167.9
169.7

995.7
1, 043. 1
1, 068. 2
1, 071. 0
1, 100. 9
1, 161. 7
1, 218. 5
1, 209. 9
1, 212. 0
1, 266. 2
1, 325. 5

1976: III.. 1, 283. 7
IV— 1, 287. 4

822.7
839.8

118.5
119.0

47. 1
52.0

13.8
-1.8

17.0
13.8

97.9
96.9

80.9
83.1

2646
2646

96.7
97.1

168.0
167.5

1, 269. 8
1, 289. 2

1977: I _ _ . 1, 311. 0
!!.__ 1, 330. 7
III- 1, 347. 4
IV.. 1, 360. 2

850.4
854. 1
860.4
879.8

124.3
126.4
127.6
128.9

52.7
57.6
57.5
59.9

9.7
13.2
15.7
8.7

10.6
9.4
12.2
5.9

96.9
98.5
99.8
948

86.3
89.1
87.6
88.9

263.3
270.0
2740
277.0

97.0
101. 1
103.3
1042

166.4
168.9
170.7
172.8

1, 301.
1, 317.
1, 331.
1, 351.

1978: L— 1, 358. 8

877.5

130.6

59. 1

13.8

3.4

98.0

946

2744

101.7

172.6

1,345.0

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

2
5
8
5

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100]

Gross
national
product

Period

Persona consump tion expenditures

Total

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971.
1972
1973__
1974
1975
1976
1977

Gross private
dom estic
inves ;ment

Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential
fixed
fixed
goods
goods

Expor ts and
imports of goods
and se rvices

Governnlent purchases c)f goods
and se rvices

Exports Imports Federal

State
and
local

79.02
82.57
86.72
91.36
_ _ 96.02
100. 00
105. 80
116. 02
127. 18
133. 88
141. 29

81.3
84.6
88.5
92. 5
96.6
100. 0
105. 5
116.9
126.5
133.2
140.6

87.4
90.7
93. 1
95.5
99.0
100.0
101.6
108.4
117.9
124.7
130. 1

81.9
85.3
89.4
93.6
96.6
100. 0
107.9
123.8
133. 1
137.7
144.0

78.8
82.0
86. 1
90.5
95.8
100.0
1047
113.6
123.5
132.3
141.5

79.3
82.6
86.6
91.3
96.4
100.0
103.8
115.3
132.3
138.7
146. 0

77.0
80.7
87.7
90.6
949
100.0
110. 8
122.3
132.8
142.5
159.9

840
85.3
87.9
93. 1
96.6
100. 0
116.2
148.3
163.8
170.0
179.2

80. 1
80.9
83.3
89. 1
93.5
100. 0
118.2
171.0
188.2
1943
211.0

72.6
76.4
80. 0
86.4
92.6
100.0
105.8
115.9
127.5
1348
143.4

72.5
76.9
81.9
88.3
94.5
100.0
107.3
118.4
129.7
137.7
147. 1

1976: III
IV

_ 134 56
136. 35

134.0
135.6

125.3
127.2

138.3
139.3

133.2
135.4

139.2
140.9

144 1
147.5

172.0
1740

198.4
199.3

1347
138.2

138.6
140.7

1977: I
II
III
IV

138.
140.
142.
144

13
52
19
23

137.9
139.8
141.7
143.2

129. 3
129.5
130. 0
131.3

141. 5
143. 8
1449
145.9

137.8
140. 1
142.9
145.0

142.5
1444
146.9
150. 1

153.7
157.6
160.9
166.5

175.9
180.8
180. 2
180.0

207.0
210.6
213.9
212.5

140.6
142.0
143.3
147.6

143.4
146.2
148. 1
150.5

1978: I

146. 71

146. 1

133.6

149.2

147.7

152.9

169.5

183.9

216.5

150. 1

152.9

_

Source : Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross <iomestic f >roduct

Gross national p roduct

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Period

5.8

1967
1968__ _
1969__
1970
1971
1972__
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1976: III
IV
1977:1
II
III
IV

9. 1
_ _

_—

7.7

5. 0
8.2

10. 1
11.6
8. 1

_

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

Chain
price
index

2.9
4.5
5.0
5.4

5. 1
4. 1

3.0
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0

4. 1

9.9

3.8

4.8
5.9

6.0
9.9
9.5
5.6
6.0
4.6
5.9
6.9
7.0
4.3
6.1

6.6

-.4

7. 1

6.7

8.2

11.6
10.7
8.6
6.7

13.2
13.7
10.2

1978: I

2.7
44
2.6
-.3
3.0
5.7
5.5

Implicit
price
deflator

-1.4
-1.3
6.0
4.9
3.9

1. 2

7.5
6.2

5. 1

5.8
9.7
9.6
5.3
5.5
4.6
5.4
5.3

7. 1

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from
previous quarter.

3.0
4.3
5.0
5.2
4.9
4.0

6. 0
10.2
9.4
5.6

Current
dollars
5.7
9.1
7.8
5.0
8.1

10. 1
11.5
7.9
8.5

6. 1

11.4
10.7

4.8

6. 0

8.2
6.9

7.1
7.0
4.8
6.2

12.6
13.6
10.5
10.7

6.6

5.9

Implicit
price
deflator

Constant
(1972)
dollars

3.0
4.5

2.7
4.4
2.6
-.3
2.8
5.8
5.4
1.3

5. 1
5.3

5. 1
4. 1

Chain
price
index
3. 1

4.4
5.0
5.3
5.0

4. 1

5.9
4.9
3.7
1.3
7.2

5.7
9.3
9.7
5.2
5.5
4.4
5.5
5.0

5.3
4.3

4.9
6.1

5.9
9.6
9.5
5.6
5.9
4.5
6.0
6.7
7.0
4.3
6.2

.8

6.8

6.7

— 1. 1

7. 1

6. 1

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)
3.0
4.4
5.0
5.2
4.9
40
5.9
9.9
9.4
5.6

6. 1
46

6. 1
7.0
7.0
48
6.3
6.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Gross d omestic
prodi ict of
nonfin ancial
corp orate
busi ness
(billic)ns of
doll ars)

Period

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-do liar cost atnd profit per unit of outpiit (dollars) l
Capital
consumption
CompenTotal
allowNet
ances Indirect sation
cost
inwith business
of
and 2
3
employ- terest
capital taxes
profit
conees
sumption
adjustment

Corp Drate prof its with
invent ory valuation and
capi tal consulnption
adjustmer its

0. 072
.066
.055
.041
. 046
. 057
. 050
. 024
.055
. 066
.069

6.873
7. 105
7. 139
7. 132
7.374
7.595
7.781
7. 506
7.766
8. 055
8.244

3.676
3. 929
4 198
4.478
4.757
5.024
5.441
5.972
6.596
7. 166
7.805

. 074
.072

. 071
. 060

8. 112
8.052

7.238
7.373

. 128
. 142
. 152
. 147

.070
. 075
. 073
. 076

. 058
. 068
. 079
.070

8. 170
8.209
8.298
8. 322

7.599
7.737
7.873
8.026

. 121

.071

.050

8. 279

8. 300

Profits
tax
liability

452.9
498. 4
541.8
560. 6
602. 5
671.0
752. 0
808.8
875.2
991. 0
1, 105. 2

545. 8
581. 6
607. 3
600. 6
619. 3
671.0
720.4
695.0
678. 9
731. 0
7744

0. 830
.857
.892
. 933
.973
1. 000
1.044
1. 164
1. 289
1.356
1. 427

0. 072
. 074
.079
.088
. 094
.093
.095
. 116
. 143
. 146
. 151

0.084
. 089
. 094
. 103
. 110
. 110
. 112
. 123
. 136
. 136
. 140

0.535
.553
. 589
.628
.645
.661
.699
.796
.849
.890
.947

0.016
.017
.022
.028
.029
.028
.032
.043
. 045
. 044
.047

0. 123
. 124
. 109
.086
.095
. 107
. 105
.086
. 115
. 139
. 142

0.051
.058
.055
.045
.048
.050
.055
. 061
.060
. 073
. 074

1976:III__ 1 004. 7
IV__. 1 017. 2

736.6
736.5

1.364
1.381

. 147
. 150

. 136
. 139

.892
.916

.044
. 045

. 145
. 132

049. 3
094. 9
124 8
151.7

753. 3
771.7
781.2
791.5

1.393
1.419
1.440
1.455

. 149
. 148
. 151
. 153

. 140
. 139
. 140
. 142

.930
.943
.949
. 964

.046
.047
.048
.049

1978: I *__ 1, 165. 0

789.5

1.476

. 157

. 145

1.002

.050

1

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate
business
in 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments
ess subsidies.




4

per

(1972
dollars)

Total

1972
dollars

1977: !__„_ 1
!!___ 1
HI__ 1
IV.__ 1

per

hour
of all
employ-

Compensation
hour
of all
employees
(dollars)

Current
dollars

1967
1968_
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Output

Profits
after4
tax

ees

With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Compensation of
employees *

National
income

Period

Propri etors1
mcom<2 with
inventor y valuation anc capital
consuiitiption
adjust ments

Farm

Nonfarm

Rental
income
of persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Corpor ate profits3 with inventory va luation
and capital consumptio]a adjustm ents
Profits with inv entory
valuai Aon adjus tment
and Twithout cabpital
consum ption adjiistment
Total
Total

Profits
before
tax

Inventory
valua-

Capital
Net
coninterest
sumption
adjustment

adjustment

471.9
655.8
519.8
714.4
571.4
767.9
609.2
798.4
650.3
858. 1
715.1
951.9
799.2
1, 064. 6
875.8
__ 1, 136. 0
930.3
1, 217. 0
1, 364. 1 1, 036. 3
1, 520. 5 1, 156. 3

12. 1
12.0
13.9
13.9
14.3
18.0
32.0
25.4
23.2
18.6
19.7

48.9
51.4
52.3
51.2
53.4
58. 1
60.4
60.9
62.8
69.4
78.5

19.4
18.6
18. 1
18.6
20. 1
21.5
21.6
21.4
22.3
23.3
25.3

79.3
85.8
81.4
67.9
77.2
92. 1
99. 1
83.6
99.3
128.1
139.9

75.6
82. 1
77.9
66.4
76.9
89.6
97.2
86.5
111.5
142.7
157. 1

77.3
85.6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115.8
126.9
123.5
156.9
171.7

-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
-5.1
-5.0
-6.6
-18.6
-40.4
-12.0
-14.1
-14.6

3.7
3.7
3.5
1.5
.3
2.5
1.9
-2.9
-12.2
-14.7
-17.2

24.3
26.8
30.8
37.5
42.8
47.0
52.3
69.0
79.1
88.4
100.9

1976: III
IV

1, 379. 6 1, 046. 5
1, 402. 1 1, 074. 2

16.2
16.6

70.0
72.0

23.3
24. 1

133.5
123. 1

148.2
137. 9

159.9
154.8

-11.7
-16.9

-14.7
-14.8

90. 1
92.0

1977: I
II
III
IV

1, 450. 2
1, 505. 7
1, 540. 5
1, 585. 7

1, 109. 9
1, 144. 7
1, 167. 4
1, 203. 3

20.7
19.7
15.5
22.7

74.3
77.3
80.0
82.4

24.5
24.9
25.5
26.4

125.4
140.2
149.0
144.8

141.0
156.2
166.9
164.2

161.7
174.0
172.8
178.3

-20.6
-17.8
-5.9
-14.1

-15.6
-15.9
-17.9
— 19.4

95.3
98.9
103.1
106. 1

1978: I

1, 609. 9 1, 243. 5

20.2

82.9

26.9

126.8

147.4

172.2

-24.8

-20.6

109.6

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

1

Includes employer contributions for social Insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Source : Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
NonduralDie goods

D arable gootIs

Retail sales of
new pa ssenger
cars(nlillions
of uilits)

Total
personal
consumption Total
expendi- durable1
goods
tures

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

490.4
535.9
579.7
618.8
668.2
733.0
809.9
889.6
980.4
1, 094. 0
1,211.2

69.6
80.0
85.5
849
97. 1
111.2
123.7
122.0
132.9
158.9
179.8

29.7
35.8
37.7
349
43.8
50.6
55.2
48.0
53.9
71.9
83.8

29.5
32.6
35.0
36.7
39.4
448
50.7
549
58.0
63.9
70.5

212.6
230.4
247.0
2647
277.7
299. 3
333.8
376.3
409.3
442.7
480.7

109.6
118.3
126.1
136.3
140.6
150.4
168. 1
189.8
209.5
225.5
246.2

38.2
41.8
45. 1
46.6
50.5
55. 1
61.3
65.3
70.2
76.3
83.0

17.0
18.4
20.4
22.0
23.4
249
27.8
36.4
39. 1
41.4
44.7

208. 1
225. 6
247.2
269.1
293.4
322. 4
352.3
391.3
438.2
492.3
550.7

7.6
8.6
8.5
7. 1
8.7
9.3
9.7
7.5
7. 1
8.6
9.1

0.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1

1976: III.... 1, 102. 2
IV
1, 139. 0

159.3
166.3

72. 1
75.7

63.9
66.5

4447
458.8

227.0
232.0

76.9
79.9

41.2
43.5

498.2
513.9

8.4
8.5

1.5
1.7

1977:1
II
III____
IV

1, 172. 4
1, 194 0
1, 218. 9
1, 259. 5

177.0
178.6
177.6
186.0

85.3
845
81.2
842

67.4
69.3
70.9
743

466.6
4744
481.8
499.9

237.9
2448
248.3
2540

79.3
80.4
83.3
89.0

44 1
443
442
46.3

528.8
541. 1
559.5
573.7

9.4
9.3
8.9
8.9

1.8
2.4
2.0
2.0

1978: I

1, 281. 9

183. 2

85.0

71.4

503. 9

259.3

85.4

47.2

594.8

8.8

2.0

Period

1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

* Total Includes other Items not shown separately.




Furniture
and
household
equipment

Total
nondurable
goods l

Food

Clothing Gasoline
and
and oil
shoes

Services
Domestics

Imports

Source : Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $23.3 billion (annual rate) in April, following a $22.3 billion (revised) increase in March.
Wages and salaries increased $18.1 billion in April, compared with $17.5 billion in March. All other major
types of income also rose in April.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO <

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,000

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

60

60

1970

1978

*SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCEt DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
3
Wage
Rental
Transfer
Total
Other Proprietc)rs' income income
and
Divi- Personal
payinterest
personal salary
labor 1 2
dends
of
income disburseincome ments 5
income
Farm
Nonfarm persons 4
l
ments

801.3
546. 5
1970___
579.4
1971___
859. 1
942.5
1972
633. 8
701.3
1973
__ 1, 052. 4
1, 154. 9 764.6
1974
1, 253. 4 805.7
1975
1, 382. 7 891. 8
1976
1977
__ 1, 536. 7 990.0
1, 510. 1 974. 1
1977: Apr
982. 0
May
1, 517. 3
1, 524. 3
986. 5
June
July—. 1, 539. 2 992.9
Aug
1, 549. 0
997.9
1, 561. 3 1, 006. 0
Sept
1, 584. 0 1, 022. 1
Oct
Nov
1, 602. 3 1, 029. 9
1, 622. 7 1, 035. 3
Dec
1, 625. 2 1, 046. 3
1978: Jan
Feb____ 1, 634. 5 1, 055. 6
Mar
1, 656. 8 1, 073. 1
Apr p _ _ 1, 680. 1 1, 091. 2

32.0
36. 2
42.0
48.7
55.6
64.9
75.9
88.6
85.5
86.7
87. 9
89. 1
90.3
91. 5
92.8
94. 0
95. 3
96.5
97.7
99.0
100. 3

13. 9
14.3
18.0
32.0
25.4
23.2
18.6
19.7
20.9
19.8
18.4
16.5
15. 1
14. 9
17.4
21. 1
29. 4
23.0
19.0
18.5
19.0

51.2
53.4
58. 1
60.4
60.9
62.8
69.4
78.5
76.9
77.2
77.6
79.2
80.2
80.8
81. 5
82.3
83. 2
81.9
83.0
83.8
84. 5

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs
from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions
for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare
funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
s With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
4
With capital consumption adjustment.




18. 6
20. 1
21. 5
21. 6
21.4
22. 3
23.3
25.3
24.3
24. 8
25.6
24.7
25.7
26. 0
26.2
26. 4
26. 6
26.8
26.9
27. 0
27. 2

22. 9
23.0
24.6
27.8
31.0
32.4
35.8
41.2
39.3
39. 6
41. 9
42.0
42.4
42. 6
42. 7
42. 9
45. 2
43. 7
43.8
44. 0
44.4

64.3
69.3
74.6
84. 1
103.0
115.6
130.3
147.8
143.5
145.2
147.4
149. 1
150.4
151.3
153. 1
155.4
157.0
158.5
160. 2
162.7
165. 1

79.9
94. 1
104. 1
118.9
140.8
176. 8
192.8
206.9
206. 0
202. 9
200.0
207. 2
208. 6
210.2
210. 9
213. 1
213.9
215.4
215. 5
216. 8
217.6

Less: PerNonsonal confarm
tributions personal
for social income 6
insurance

28.0
30.8
34.2
42.2
47.7
50.4
55. 2
61. 3
60.6
60. 9
61.0
61. 5
61.6
62. 0
62.6
62.9
63. 2
67.0
67.4
68.2
69. 1

780.7
838.0
917.3
1, Oil. 9
1, 119. 3
1, 218. 8
1, 351. 3
1, 502. 8
1, 475. 3
1, 483. 5
1, 491. 6
1, 508. 3
1, 519. 5
1, 531. 8
1, 551. 9
1, 566. 3
1, 578. 2
1, 586. 8
1, 600. 0
1, 622. 7
1, 645. 4

s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
« Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other
labor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose only slightly in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL^
11,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

PERSONAL OUTLAYS

t t
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

t

i

i

t

t

i

t

?

i

f

t

!

I

t

l

t

1-

t

.

i

I

I

( I I
DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

-PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
CURRENT DOLLARS

2,000

2,000
1970

1978

1971

**.SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

T

Period

Personal
Pertax
sonal
and
income nontax
payments

Equals :
Disposable
personal
income

Less:
Personal
outlays 1

Per c apita
dispc sable
persona 1 income

Equals :
Personal
saving Current
dollars

Bil lions of d ollars

1972
dollars

Per cap>ita personal ccmsumption exp enditures

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Percent
change
in real
per
capita
disposable
personal
income

Saving
as percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population
(thou-2
sands)

Do!lars

1969
745.8
1970
801.3
1971
859. 1
1972
942.5
1973
1, 052. 4
1974
1, 154. 9
1975___ .._ 1, 253. 4
1976
1, 382. 7
1977
1, 536. 7

115. 4
630. 4
595.3
115.3
635. 4
685.9
116.3
685.5
742.8
141.2
801.3
751.9
150.8
901.7
831.3
170.3
913.0
984.6
169.0 1, 084. 4 1, 004. 2
196. 9 1, 185. 8 1, 119. 9
227.5 1, 309. 2 1, 241. 9

1976:III__ 1, 393. 9
IV. _ 1, 432. 2
1977: I— _ 1, 476. 8
II___ 1, 517. 2
III.._ 1, 549. 8
IV _ „ 1, 603. 0

200.6
209.5
224.4
224.8
226. 1
234.7

35. 1
50.6
57.3
49. 4
70.3
71.7
80. 2
65.9
67.3

3, 111
3,348
3,588
3,837
4,285
4,646
5,077
5,511
6,037

3,515
3,619
3,714
3,837
4,062
3,973
4,014
4,137
4,293

2,860
3,020
3,227
3,510
3,849
4,197
4,591
5, 084
5,585

3,234
3,265
3,342
3,510
3,648
3,589
3,629
3,817
3,971

1. 0
3. 1
3.8

5.6
7.4
7.7
6.2
7.8
7.3
7.4
5.6
5.1

202, 677
204, 878
207, 053
208, 846
210, 410
211, 945
213, 566
215, 191
216, 856

1.5
3.0
2.6
3. 3
5.9
9
9
<w. A

Seas onally ad; usted ann ual rates
1, 128. 5
1, 166. 3
1, 201. 0
1, 223. 9
1, 250. 5
1, 292. 2

64.8
56.3
51.4
68.5
73.3
76. 1

5,540
5,665
5,793
5,967
6,098
6,290

4, 135
4,177
4,202
4,268
4,305
4,394

5, 117
5,278
5,422
5,513
5,615
5,790

3,820
3,891
3,933
3,943
3,964
4, 044

0.5
4. 1
2.4
6.4
3. 5
8.5

5.4
4.6
4. 1
5.3
5.5
5.6

215, 380
215, 827
216, 206
216, 603
217, 073
217, 541

1978:I____ 1, 638. 8 236.7 1, 402. 1 1, 315. 9

86.2

6,435

4,405

5,883

4,027

1.0

6. 1

217, 889

1

1, 193. 3
1, 222. 6
1, 252. 4
1, 292. 5
1, 323. 8
1, 368. 3

Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to
business,
and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and
are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the
period.




Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the first quarter, net farm income excluding inventory change rose $0.3 billion (annual rate) while income including
inventory change fell $2.7 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

NET FARM INCOME
INCLUDING NET INVENTORY
J
CHANGE

40

40

t
20

20

V

10

10
1971

1970

1972

1975.

1974

1973

1976

1977

•SfASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Persona 1 income received
by total farm po Dulation

Income n>ceived frc>m farmin g
Realize?d gross

Period

1970
1971
_
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1976: III- _.
!¥.._„
1977: I
II .
III...
IV
1978: I
1

From
From
From
all
farm nonfarm Total i
sources sources sources

27.4
28.7
34.4
48. 6
44.7
44.3
42.0
44.5

13.0
13.4
16. 8
29.0
23. 1
21.5
17.8
18.6

14.4
15.3
17. 6
19.5
21. 6
22.8
24.2
25.9

Gas a receipts from
inarketing s

Livestock
Crops
Total
and
products
Billioiis of dolla rs

Net inc ome per
farm inchiding net3
inventory change

Produc- Exclud- Includtion ex- ing net ing net
penses inven1967 4
inven- Current
tory 2 dollars dollars
tory
change change
Dol lars

58.6
60.6
70.1
95.5
100.0
96.7
103.6
106. 1
100.9
101.9
106. 5
107.2
100.8
110.0

50.5
52.9
61. 2
87. 1
92.4
88. 1
94.3
95.0
91.5
92.4
96.7
97. 1
90.4
95.9

29.6
30.6
35.7
45. 9
41.4
43.0
46. 4
47.4
45.5
45. 4
46.2
46. 8
47.8
48.9

21.0
22.3
25.5
41. 1
51. 1
45. 1
47.9
47.6
46.0
47.0
50.5
50.3
42. 6
47.0

44.4
47.4
52.3
65.6
72.2
75.9
81.7
85.7
82.3
81.2
84. 5
86.5
83.3
88.5

14. 1
13.2
17.8
29.9
27.7
20.8
21.9
20.4
18. 6
20.7
22. 0
20.7
17. 5
21. 5

14.2
14.6
18.7
33.3
26. 1
24.3
20.0
21.3
17.6
18.0
21. 5
21.2
17.5
25. 0

4,790
5,030
6,504
11, 727
9,232
8,637
7, 203
7,870
6, 330
6,480
7,940
7,830
6,470
9,240

4,202
4,263
5,288
8,817
6, 114
5, 203
4,093
4,186
3,580
3,600
4,330
4, 180
3,410
4,800

113.3

100.9

52.7

48. 2

91.5

21.8

22.3

8,320

4,220

Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney in come furnished by farms.
2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.
3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is
held constant within a year.




Net t() farm
oper ators

* Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for
family living items on a 1967 base. As of January 1977 movement is based on the
overall change in the consumer price index.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

CORPORATE PROFITS
According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, profits before tax fell $6.1 billion while after-tax profits fell
$2.1 billion. About half of the decline was caused by severe weather, the coal strike, and coal and electricity shortages.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1978
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profit s (before tax) wit i invent(>ry valu£ition
adjustn lent *
Dome.?tie indu stries
IS onfinanc jial

Period

1967__. —
1968_._
1969
1970
1971
1972___
1973
1974
1975
1976
_
1977
1976: III
IV
1977: I
II
III
IV

Total 2

-—

__„_

1978: I »

Total

ManuFinancial
Total3 facturing

Wholesale
and
retail
trade

37.9
41.2
36.8
27. 1
32.4
40.6
44. 1
36. 6
47.9
66.3
75.4
68.4
62.9
65.2
76. 4
77.6
82.2

8.9
10. 1
10. 1
9.4
11.7
13.3
14.7
12. 9
22. 1
27. 1
26.5
29. 1
27.4
24.0
25.4
31. 2
25. 4

75.6
82. 1
77.9
66.4
76.9
89. 6
97.2
86.5
111. 5
142.7
157. 1
148.2
137. 9
141.0
156.2
166.9
164.2

72.6
78.9
74.2
62.6
72. 4
84.7
90.4
76. 9
105.4
134.6
147.8
139.8
130.2
131.0
145.5
157.4
157.5

9.0
10.4
11.3
12.6
14. 1
15.4
16.2
14.4
15.0
18.2
20.7
18.4
18.4
19.2
19.9
21. 2
22.3

63.6
68.5
62.9
50. 1
58.2
69.3
74. 1
62.5
90.3
116.4
127.2
121.3
111.8
111.8
125.5
136. 1
135.2

147. 4

138.3

22.9

115.4

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
3 Includes industries not shown separately.

8



Pro its after tax

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Profits
before
tax

Tax
liability

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

77.3
85.6
83.4
71.5
82.0
96.2
115.8
126.9
123.5
156. 9
171.7
159.9
154.8
161.7
174.0
172.8
178.3

32.5
39.4
39.7
34. 5
37.7
41.5
48.7
52.4
50.2
64.7
69.2
65.9
63.9
64. 4
69.7
69.3
73.3

44.9
46.2
43.8
37.0
44.3
54.6
67. 1
74.5
73.4
92. 1
102.5
94.0
90.9
97.2
104.3
103.6
105.0

20. 1
21. 9
22. 6
22.9
23.0
24. 6
27.8
31.0
32.4
35.8
41.2
36.0
38.4
38.5
40.3
42.3
43. 6

24.7
24. 2
21.2
14. 1
21.3
30. 0
39.3
43.6
41. 0
56.4
61.4
58.0
52.5
58. 8
64. 1
61. 2
61.4

-1.7
-3.4
-5.5
-5. 1
-5.0
-6.6
-18.6
-40.4
-12.0
-14. 1
-14.6
-11.7
-16.9
-20.6
-17. 8
-5.9
-14.1

172.2

69.2

102. 9

43.8

59. 1

-24.8

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates, business fixed investment rose $6.2 billion (annual rate) in the first quarter as producers'
durable equipment purchases increased $4.6 billion and nonresidential construction outlays rose $1.5 billion.
Residential investment outlays increased $0.4 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $19.7 billion, up $6.2 billion
from the fourth quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE)
140 -NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT-

120

PRODUCERS'
DURABLE EQUIPMENT

100

80

STRUCTURES
60

50

I I

I

l

i

t

BILUONS OF DOLLARS

50
1974

1975

1976

1977

1975

1974

1978

1977

1976

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Noiiresidential fixed investmcHit

Period

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Struc,tures
Total

Prodi icers?
dur able
equip ment

Total

Nonfarm

Total

Nonfarm

Resid ential fixed inves tment
P*«n

Total

Nonfarm
struc—
tures

1
Farm ducers
durstrucable
tures equipment

Change in business in\ entories

Total

Nonfarm

1967__.
1968___
_ _ ___
1969
1970
1971
1972___
1973
1974____
1975
1976
1977
_ _ _
1976:111
IV
1977: I
II
III
IV
___

120.8
131. 5
146.2
140.8
160.0
188.3
220. 0
214. 6
189. 1
243.3
294.2
254. 3
243.4
271.8
294.9
303. 6
306.7

82. 1
89.3
98. 9
100.5
104. 1
116.8
136. 0
150.6
149. 1
161.9
185. 1
164.9
167.6
177. 0
182.4
187.5
193.5

29.5
31.6
35. 7
37.7
39.3
42. 5
49. 0
54.5
52.9
55. 8
61.5
56.0
57.0
57. 9
61.0
62.6
64. 5

28. 2
30. 4
34.3
36. 1
37.8
41. 1
46.9
51.8
50.4
53. 4
58.8
53.6
54.4
55. 1
58.2
60. 1
61.8

52.6
57.7
63.3
62.8
64. 7
74.3
87.0
96. 2
96.3
106. 1
123. 6
109. 0
110.6
119.2
121. 4
124.9
129.0

48.0
53.4
58.9
58. 1
59.9
69. 1
80. 1
88.2
87. 1
95.9
112.4
98.4
100.7
107.8
110.0
114.0
117.8

28.6
34.5
37.9
36.6
49.6
62. 0
66. 1
55. 1
51. 5
68.0
91.0
67.8
76.7
81.0
90.8
92.5
99.7

27.2
33. 1
36.3
35. 1
47.9
60.3
64. 3
52.7
49. 5
65.7
88.4
65.7
74. 3
78.5
88.2
89.9
97. 1

0.7
.6
.7
.6
.7
.7
.6
1.2
.9
1.0
1. 1
.9
1. 1
1. 1
1.2
1. 1
1.0

0.7
.8
.9
.9
1.0
1. 1
1. 2
1.2
1. 1
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
1.4
1. 4
1.5
1.6

10. 1
7.7
9.4
3.8
6.4
9.4
17. 9
8. 9
-11.5
13.3
18.2
21.5
-. 9
13.8
21.7
23.6
13.5

9.4
7.6
9.2
3.7
5. 1
8.8
14.7
10.8
-15. 1
14.9
17. 1
22.0
1.4
14. 1
22.4
23. 1
9.0

1978: I

319.5

199. 7

66. 0

62. 9

133.6

122.7

100. 1

97. 3

1. 1

1.7

19. 7

18.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Business plans to increase capital spending 10.9 percent in 1978, according to the Commerce Department survey
conducted in late January and February. Spending in 1977 was 12.7 percent above the 1976 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE}

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

20

20
1970

1971

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Starts ()f plant
and eqilipment
prop3CtS 3

Es[penditure's for plan t and equipment
N<mmanuf acturing

Mimufacturi ng

Period
Total1

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munication
tion
ties

Commercial
and

1971__ _ _
1972
1973
1974_.
1975__
1976__
1977
1978 4 _-

81.21
88.44
99. 74
112. 40
112. 78
120. 49
135. 80
150. 68

29.99
31.35
38. 01
46.01
47.95
52.48
60. 16
67.20

14. 15
15. 64
19. 25
22.62
21. 84
23. 68
27.77
31.09

15.84
15. 72
18.76
23.39
26. 11
28.81
32. 39
36. 11

51. 22
57. 09
61.73
66.39
64. 82
68.01
75. 64
83.48

2. 16
2.42
2.74
3. 18
3.79
4. 00
4.50
5. 13

4.93
5. 72
6.03
6.66
7.57
7.45
6.93
7. 28

15.30
17.00
18.71
20.55
20. 14
22. 28
25.80
29.48

10.77
11. 89
12.85
13.96
12. 74
13.30
15.45
16.97

other 2
18.05
20.07
21.40
22. 05
20.60
20. 99
22.97
24.60

1977:1

130.
134.
140.
138.

16
24
38
11

56.43
59.46
63. 02
61.41

26.30
27. 26
29. 23
28. 19

30. 13
32. 19
33.79
33.22

73.74
74.78
77.36
76.70

4.24
4.49
4. 74
4.50

7.29
6.96
6.85
6.88

25.35
25.29
26. 22
26.23

14. 19
15. 32
16. 40
15.82

22.67
22.73
23. 14
23.27

146. 25
149. 16

63.00
65.82

29.81
31.01

33. 18
34.81

83.25
83.34

5.24
5.13

8. 12
7.63

28.69
28.62

half4. 153. 24

69.60

31.62

37.98

83.65

5.08

6. 77

30.27

II.

III
IV

1978: I 4
II*

2nd

i Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not
agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national
product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,
professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays
charged to current account.
a Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.

in




Manufacturing

Public
utilities

28. 00
35.21
47.57
52. 49
48.24
51.05
66.73

22. 22
28. 60
38. 13
45.74
34. 50
29.66
32.54

15.26
15. 15
19.81
16.54

9.76
3.79
10.23
7.99

4L 21
4L 94
41. 54

3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during
given period.
< Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and
February. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES

STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE

Seasonally adjusted employment increased sharply in April, rising by 535,000. Unemployment declined by 165,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

100

100

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

90

90

80

80

101
UNEMPLOYMENT

\
11111 i
1970

i i 1 1 1 1 it 111

I M I I I I I 1 II

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1 t I MI

1977

1976

* 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of LABOR

Period

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Noninstitu- Civilian
tional employpopula- ment
tion

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over]
Unempl<3yment
Civilian eimploymeEit
rr* i *
lotal
labor
Nonagricultural
15
Unem- force Civilian
Part-time Total weeks
Agriploy- (includ- labor
Total
ecoand
culment
ing
force
Total for
nomic l
over
tural
Armed
reasons
Forces)
2,311
3,452
4,304
80,
957
812
84,
409
4,304 91, 040 88, 714
2,709
5,076
937
5,076 93, 240 91, Oil 85, 935 3,492 82, 443
3,490
7,830 2,483
7,830 94, 793 92, 613 84, 783 3,380 81, 403
3,272
7,288 2,339
7,288 96, 917 94, 773 87, 485 3,297 84, 188
3,297
6,855 1,911
6,855 99, 534 97, 401 90, 546 3,244 87, 302
Seascjnally adjusted

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

148, 263
150, 827
153, 449
156, 048
158, 559

1977: Apr__
May_
June.
July._
Aug..
Sept..
Oct_.
No v.Dec. .

157, 986
158, 228
158, 456
158, 682
158, 899
159, 114
159, 334
159, 522
159, 736

89, 258
90, 042
91, 682
92, 372
92, 315
91, 247
92, 230
92, 473
92, 623

6, 568 98, 878
6, 151 99, 289
7,453 99, 681
6,941 99, 442
6,757 99, 751
6,437 99, 887
6,221 100, 205
6,346 101, 009
5, 880 101, 048

1978: Jan*..
Feb.Mar_
Apr__

159, 937
160, 128
160, 313
160, 504

91, 053
91, 185
91, 964
93, 180

6,897
6, 739
6,479
5,685

84, 409
85, 935
84, 783
87, 485
90, 546
Uiciadjusted

101,
101,
101,
101,

228
217
536
902

Labor
force
participation
rate
(mpT"

___4.\ 2
cent)
*

61.4
61.8
61.8
62. 1
62.8

96, 746
97, 161
97, 552
97, 307
97, 614
97, 756
98, 071
98, 877
98, 919

89, 877
90, 267
90, 648
90, 588
90, 793
91, 088
91, 383
92, 214
92, 609

3,256
3,335
3,330
3,206
3,224
3, 199
3,243
3,357
3,323

86, 621
86, 932
87, 318
87, 382
87, 569
87, 889
88, 140
88, 857
89, 286

3,192
3,268
3,390
3,464
3,253
3,306
3,263
3,285
3,220

6,869
6,894
6,904
6,719
6,821
6,668
6,688
6,663
6,310

1,828
1,869
1,788
1,824
1,800
1,834
1,848
1,829
1,797

62.6
62.8
62.9
62.7
62.8
62.8
62.9
63.3
63.3

99, 107
99, 093
99, 414
99, 784

92, 881
93, 003
93, 266
93, 801

3,354
3,242
3,310
3,275

89, 527
89, 761
89, 956
90, 526

2,986
3, 193
3, 164
3, 327

6,226
6,090
6, 148
5, 983

1,688
1,568
1,463
1,384

63.3
63.2
63.3
63.5

* Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages,
inability to find full-time work, etc.
2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and
over.




mil

* Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of
revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and
to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 6.0 percent in April as the unemployment rates of experienced
workers and persons seeking full-time employment continued to steadily decline.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

•PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

1978
* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN IABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Total
(all
civilian
workers)

Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr-

_

4.9
5.6
8.5
7.7
7.0

7. 1
7. 1

.

1

7.1
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.0

UneEaployme at rate ( Dereent ()f eiviliaia labor f orce in g roup)
]3y select ed group>s
Byi-»ex and aige
By race
Men Women Both
20
20
sexes
years years 16-19
and
and
years
over
over
3.2
3.8
6.7
5.9
5.2
5.2
5.3

5. 1
5. 1
5. 1

4.7
5.0
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.2

4.8
5.5
8.0
7.4
7.0
7.0
6.9
7.2
6.9

7. 1

6.9
6.8
6.9
6.6
6.1
5.7
5.8
5.8

14.5
16.0
19.9
19.0
17.7
18.2
18. 1
18.0
17.3
17.3
18.3
17.3
17.2
15.6
16.0
17.4
17.3
16.9

Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



White

4.3
5.0
7.8
7.0
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.3

6. 1
6. 1

6.0
6.0
5.9
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.2

ExpeBlack rienced
- Fulltime
wage House
and
hold
and
other salary
heads workers
workers
8.9
9.9

13.9
13. 1
13. 1
12.3
12.9
13.2
13.3
14.3
13. 1
13.7
13.7
12.7
12.7
11.8
12.4
11.8

4.5
5.3
8.2
7.3
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.5

6. 3

6.5
6.3
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5

2.9
3.3
5.8
5.1
4.5
4.5
45
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.4
44
42
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.6

43

5. 1
8. 1

7.3
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.4
6.4
6.2
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Labor
force
time
Partlost
time
(per-l
work- cent)
ers
7.9
8.6

10.3
10. 1
9.8
9.9
9.9

10.5
9.3
9.0
9.7
9.6
9.6
8.9
8.9
8.6
9.6
9.6

5.2
6.1

9. 1

8.3
7.6
7.4
7.6
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.6

6. 3

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
The decline in unemployment in April was accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of long-term unemployed.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

60
JOB LOSERS

40

REENTRANTS

20

20
JOB LEAVERS

NEW ENTRANTS

0 ' ' » ffi I ' ' ' t i
1975

1976

1977

1978

1975

1978

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percenit distribution of unem- State p rograms Insured
Percen t distrib ution of unem1
unem- Special
ployment b y duraticm *
pl oyment 13y reasori
unemployUnemployment,
i
ployaU
ment
Insured
27
Period
ment
Less
New
regular benefit3
unem5-14
weeks
Initial
15-26
ReenJob
Job
(thouen- than 5
proclaims
ploy- claims
sands) losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks and
grams 2 (unadover
ment
(unad- justed)
justed)
Wee3kly aver age, thou sands
7.8 1,632
246
1,793
1973
11.0
30. 1
51.0
4,304
15.7
30.7
38.7
14. 9
7.3 2,262
363
1974
11. 1
2,558
28.4
31.0
50.6
14.9
43.4
5,076
13.3
15.2 3,992
478
4,943
16.5
1,173
1975
31.3
37.0
55.4
10. 4
23. 8
10.4
7,830
382
18.3 2,968
3,822
12.2
13.8
1,152
12. 1
1976
29.6
38. 3
7,288
26.0
49.8
3,112
572
14.8 2,473
375
1977
13. 1
41.7
30.5
6,855
13.7
45.3
13.0
28. 1
16.4 2,565
784
374
10.6
3,506
1977: Apr... 6,869
12. 6
28. 9
28. 1
44.9
44.2
14.3
383
15.6 2,565
3, 105
31.4
12.0
538
41. 1
May.. 6,894
13.3 28.7
13.0
45.0
372
484
13.9 2,568
11.9
2,939
29.6
June.. 6,904
27.7
44.5
13.6
15.7
43. 0
14. 1 2,626
385
3,065
42. 1
July._ 6,719
12. 5
13. 2
30.6
540
14.5
27.7
45.3
12.6 2,733
385
535
2,751
Aug.. 6,821 46. 3
32.4
13.5
41.5
27. 1
13.7
12.9
412
368
2,643
13.4
13. 7 2,664
31.8
41. 1
Sept— 6,668
45. 3
12.9
27.9
13.9
13.7 2,624
364
361
2,649
31.3
41.4
Oct... 6,688
13. 1 28.6
13.6
12.8
45.5
354
315
42. 4
Nov.. 6,663
13.9
30. 3
13.3 2,602
44. 7
13.3 28.5
2,853
13. 6
13.5 2,516
346
14.8
3,226
259
Dec.,. 6,310
41.3 30.4
43.4
13.9
29.8
13.0
13.2 2,461
192
344
43.2
1978: Jan- _ 6,226
13.8
3,779
29. 8
13.6
29. 0
14.5
42.9
11.2 2,524
3,638
143
369
15.0
14.2
14.7
29.4
Feb— 6,090
43.3 30.5
41.6
102
3,212
11.3 2,406
326
Mar". 6, 148
30.5
12.4
45.8
40.3
13. 9
30. 9
14.9
11.2 2, 210
12. 0
330
2,661
60
Apr *_ 5,983 41.2
29.9
15.4
46.8
14.5
28.9
1

Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes
Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal
supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




3
FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting
began March 1975.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment
and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural payroll employment increased by 619,000 in April. The largest increase was in contract
construction which rose by 173,000 in April and 270,000 since February, seasonally adjusted.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS' (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

901
-WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE-

18
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

80
16
GOVERNMENT

70

14

IMIIH»Hn»»

SERVICES

12

-SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

22

-

50

-

20

\
-

40

MANUFACTl RING

>

ff-f 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 I

-GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES

-

v..^

18

30

x.,*..**^'

\

1 1 1 11 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n i

• - *~*-

1 1 1 1 1 ! I! 1 1 1

x"

•

1 ! 1 1 I ! 1 1 ! I I)

H

-*

CO NTRACT CON 5TRUCTION

20

|i i i i i ! i i i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1976

1974
1975
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1977

1978

1974

1 M 11 11 11 11

i n 1 1 11 1 1 11

M 1 1 1 1 1M 1U

1976

1977

1978

1975

COUNCIL OF E CONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted]
Service-pi•oducing IndustrieJS
Trans- Whole- Finance,
Gover nment
Ma nufactui ing
insurporta- sale
ance, Services
tion
and
Non- Total
State
and
and
retail
Federal and
durable
Total Durable
real
public trade
goods goods
local
estate
utilities

G oods-prc>ducing i ndustries
TJ

• j
Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Apr...
May..
June..
July._
Aug..
Sept__
Oct___
Nov__
Dec...
1978: Jan___
Feb.—
Mar *_
Apr *__

Total
nonagricultural
employ- Total 2
ment
76, 896
78, 413
77, 051
79, 443
82, 142
81, 620
81, 837
82, 157
82, 407
82, 474
82, 763
82, 902
83, 245
83, 429
83, 719
84, 046
84, 537
85, 156

Contract
construction

24, 727 4,015 20, 068 11, 839
24, 697 3,957 20, 046 11, 895
22, 603 3,512 18, 347 10, 679
23, 332 3,594 18, 956 11, 026
24, 229 3,844 19, 554 11, 480
24, 176 3,830 19, 499 11, 404
24, 264 3,853 19, 566 11, 451
24, 355 3,888 19, 611 11,484
24, 412 3,913 19, 666 11, 548
24, 305 3,893 19, 594 11, 527
24, 360 3,892 19, 612 11, 545
24, 436 3,911 19, 666 11, 604
24, 528 3,950 19, 715 11, 625
24, 526 3,947 19, 868 11, 748
24, 593 3,916 19, 972 11, 828
24, 733 3,947 20, 075 11, 909
24, 933 4,044 20, 164 11, 961
25, 334 4,217 20, 224 12, 001

8,229
8, 151
7,668
7,930
8,074
8,095
8, 115
8, 127
8, 118
8,067
8,067
8,062
8,090
8,120
8, 144
8, 166
8,203
8,223

i Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural
establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from
this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed
persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14



52, 169 4,644 16, 674
53, 715 4,696 17, 017
54, 448 4,498 17, 000
56, 111 4,509 17, 694
57, 912 4,589 18, 292
57, 444 4,575 18, 175
57, 573 4,586 18, 202
57, 802 4,588 18, 264
57, 995 4,572 18, 322
58, 169 4,581 18, 377
58, 403 4,616 18, 431
58, 466 4,610 18, 414
58, 717 4, 634 18, 512
58, 903 4,652 18, 610
59, 126 4,628 18, 744
59, 313 4,651 18, 744
59, 604 4,674 18, 843
59, 822 4,700 18, 902

4,091
4,208
4,223
4,316
4,508
4,463
4,481
4,494
4,506
4,524
4,545
4,572
4,597
4,611
4,630
4,647
4,672
4,696

13, 021
13, 617
14, 006
14, 644
15, 333
15, 182
15, 197
15, 260
15, 372
15, 448
15, 482
15, 533
15, 608
15, 663
15, 693
15, 791
15, 882
15, 953

2,663
2,724
2,748
2,733
2,727
2,721
2,725
2,735
2,721
2,732
2,728
2,730
2,727
2,718
2,736
2,736
2,736
2,737

11, 075
11, 453
11,973
12, 215
12, 463
12, 328
12, 382
12, 461
12, 502
12, 507
12, 601
12, 607
12, 639
12, 649
12, 695
12, 744
12, 797
12, 834

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on
reports from employing establishments.
2 Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Total
private
nonagricultural l

Period

Manufg icturing
Total

Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —tc>tal private
nonagric ultural

Averag e gross
hourly <earnings

Average weekly ]tiours

Overtime

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

Manufacturing

Percent ch ange from
a year earlier 4

Index, 1<)67=100
Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1967
dollars 3

1967
dollars

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 _

37.7
37.1
37.0
37. 1
37.1
36.6
36. 1
36.2
36. 1

40.6
39.8
39.9
40.6
40.7
40.0
39.4
40.0
40.3

3.6
3. 0
2.9
3.5
3.8
3.2
2.6
3. 1
3.4

$3.04
3.22
3.44
3.67
3.92
422
4.54
487
5.25

$3. 19
3.36
3.57
3.81
4.08
4. 41
4.81
5. 19
5.63

113.2
120.7
129.2
137.7
146.5
158.5
172.5
185.0
198.5

103. 1
103.8
106. 5
109.9
110.0
107.3
107.0
108.5
109.4

6.6
6.6
7.0
6.6
6.4
8.2
8.8
7.2
7.3

1.7
.6
2.2
3. 1
.5
-2.3
—.2
1.4
.8

1977: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

36.2
36.3
36.2
36. 1
36.0
36.0
36.2
36.2
36.2

40.3
40.4
40.5
40.2
40.3
40.3
40.4
40.5
40.5

3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.5

5.17
5.20
5.22
5.27
5.28
5.32
5.38
5.41
5.42

5.53
5.57
5.61
5.66
5.68
5.73
5.79
5.81
5.83

195.6
196.4
197.4
199.4
199.9
201.2
203.3
204 1
205.2

108.7
108.6
108.6
109.3
109.2
109.5
110. 2
110.2
110.3

7.2
7.0
7. 1
7.5
7. 1
7.3
7.9
7.6
7.6

.4
.2
.3
.7
.4
.7
1.3
.8
.8

1978: Jan
Feb p
Mar _ _ _
Apr »

35.6
35.8
36.1
36.2

39.6
39.9
40.5
40.5

3.5
3.8
3.6
3.6

5.49
5.52
5.56
5.62

5.90
5.95
5.97
6.00

208. 1
208.8
210.2
211.9

111.0
110.6
110.5
110.5

8. 1
8.1
8.3
8.3

1.2
1.6
1.6
1.6

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly earnings
Total prr^ate nonagricul tural »

Period

Current
dollars

1969
1970__
1971
1972. _
1973_
1974_ _
1975
1976—
1977
1977: Apr. _
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1978: Jan__
Feb v
Mar .Apr v
1
2

- _
_

_

_

Manufacturing

1967
dollars 3

$114. 61
119. 46
127. 28
136. 16
145. 43
154 45
163. 89
176. 29
189. 53

$104 38
102. 72
104 93
108. 67
109. 26
104 57
101. 67
103. 40
104 42

187. 15
188. 76
188. 96
190. 25
190. 08
191. 52
194 76
195. 84
196. 20

104 03
104 34
103. 94
104 30
103. 81
104 20
105. 62
105. 75
105. 48

222.
225.
227.
227.
228.
230.
233.
235.
236.

86
03
21
53
90
92
92
31
12

296.
298.
295.
297.
294
294
300.
301.
302.

195.
197.
200.
203.

104 23
104 73
105. 53
106. 07

233.
237.
241.
242.

64
41
79
60

287.
297.
307.
311.

44
62
72
44

$129. 51
133. 73
142. 44
154 69
166. 06
176. 40
189. 51
207. 60
226. 89

$181. 54
195. 45
211. 67
222. 51
235. 69
249. 08
265. 35
284 93
296. 68

Percent chginge from a
year earlier,
total prhrate 5nonagricul tural
Current
dollars

(Current dollars3

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
3
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.




Contract
construction

Wholesale
and retail
trade

$90. 78
95.66
100. 39
105. 65
111. 04
118. 33
126. 75
133. 39
142. 52

6.4
42
6.5
7.0
6.8
6.2

54
08
87
41
92
48
66
84
13

141. 28
142. 04
141. 86
143. 19
143.09
143. 76
146. 40
145. 75
147. 52

8.3
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.3

87
02
18
74

147.
148.
150.
152.

93
26
48
26

6. 1
7.6
7.5

8. 1

8.4
8.2
7.7
7.7
7.0

8. 1
8. 7

1967
dollars
1.0

-1.6

2.2
3.6
.5
-43

-2.8
1.7
1.0

1.5

.7

.7
1.0
.6
1.4
1.8
1.4
.8
.9
.6
1.6
2.0

4
6

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY
Hours of all
perseHIS r

OutiHit 1

Compensation
per 1lour3

Output i ^er hour
of all p ersons

Unit labor
CO sts

Implici } price
deflal bor 4

PriNonNonNonPriNonPriNonPrivate farm
Private
Private Nonfarm
vate
farm
vate
farm
farm
vate
farm
business business
business business
business business
business business business business business business
sector
sector
sector
sector sector
sector
sector sector sector sector sector
sector

Period

1967= = 100; quarterly

illy adjuslted

a

1966
1967
1968
1969

98.0
100.0
105. 1
108.3

98.1
100.0
105.4
108.6

100.3
100.0
101.7
104.5

100.0
100.0
102.1
105.3

97.8
100.0
103.3
103.7

98.1
100.0
103. 2
103.1

947
100.0
107.6
115.1

945
100.0
107.3
1143

96.8
100.0
104 1
111.0

96.4
100.0
103.9
110.9

97.2
100.0
103.9
108.8

96.8
100.0
1040
108.7

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

107.4
110.3
117.6
124.5
121.5

107.4
110.3
117.9
125.0
121.9

102.8
102.3
106.0
110. 1
110.6

104.0
103.7
107.6
112.2
112.7

1045
107.8
111.0
113.1
109.9

103.3
106.3
109.5
111.4
108.1

121. 9
129.9
137.4
148.1
162.0

118.1
121.9
125.2
132.9
149.5

118.1
122.2
125.5
133.0
149.8

113.9
118.9
123.2
130.3
143. 1

1140
119.2
122.9
128.0
141.5

1975
1976
1977

118. 7
126.9
134.7

118.7
127.4
135.0

106.1
108.9
112.7

108.1
111.4
115.5

111.8
116.5
119.5

109.9
1143
116.9

123.3
131.5
138.9
150.3
1643
180.2
196.5
2140

177.6
193.1
210.0

161. 1
168.7
179.0

161.7
168.9
179.7

158.0
165.6
174 1

156.9
165.0
173.9

1975: III
IV

120.6
121.8

120.6
121.8

106.0
107.5

107.7
109.7

113.8
113.3

112.0
111.0

181. 1
1846

179.1
181.9

159. 1
163.0

160.0
163.9

159.4
161.6

158.1
160.3

1976: I
II
III
IV

124.9
126.7
127.7
128.4

125.2
127.2
128.3
128.7

108.2
108.9
109.0
109.5

111.0
111.2
111.4
112.2

115.4
116.4
117.2
117.3

112.9
1144
115.2
1147

190.5
1944
198.6
202.8

186.9
191.3
195.2
198.9

165. 1
167. 1
169.4
173.0

165.6
167. 1
169.5
173.3

162.9
1648
166.5
168.3

162.1
163.6
166.0
168.1

1977: I
II
III
IV

131.3
134.0
135.7
137.7

131.6
134.5
136.0
137.9

110.5
113.0
113.0
113.9

113.4
115.6
115.9
116.9

118.9
118.6
120.2
120.8

116.0
116.3
117.4
118.0

208.3
211.6
216.0
220.0

2042
208.0
211.8
216.0

175.2
178.4
179.7
182. 1

176.0
178.9
180.5
183.0

170.1
173.1
175.4
177.6

169.6
172.7
175.6
177.5

1978: I

137.3

137.9

114.5

117.6

119.9

117.2

227.5

223.0

189.7

190.2

180.5

180.2

__

Perceiat change ; quarterlyy data at seasonal] y adjusteri annual rates

1966
1967
1968
1969

5.5
2.0
5.1
3.0

6.0
1.9
5.4
3.0

2.3
-.3
1.7
2.7

3.3
-.0
2.1
3.2

3.2
2.3
3.3
.3

2.5
1.9
3.2
-.2

7.0
5.6
7.6
7.0

6.1
5.8
7.3
6.5

3.7
3.3
41
6.6

3.4
3.8
3.9
6.6

3.2
2.9
3.9
47

2.9
3.3
40
45

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

-.9
2.8
6.6
5.9
-2.4

-1. 1
2.7
6.9
6.0
-2.5

-1.6
—.4
3.6
3.9
.4

-1.2
-.3
3.7
4,3
.4

.7
3.2
2.9
1.9
-2.8

.2
2.9
3.0
1.7
-2.9

7.2
6.6
5.7
8.2
9.4

6.7
6.6
5.8
7.8
9.4

6.4
3.2
2.7
6.2
12.5

6.5
3.5
2.7
6.0
12.7

47
44
3.6
5.8
9.8

49
45
3.1
41
10.5

1975
1976
1977

-2.4
7.0
6.1

-2.6
7.3
6.0

-4.1
2.7
3.4

-4.1
3.1
3.7

1.8
42
2.6

1.6
41
2.2

9.6
9.1
8.9

9.6
8.7
8.8

7.7
47
6.1

7.9
45
6.4

10.4
48
5.1

10.9
5.1
5.4

1975: III
IV

12.2
3.9

12.5
4. 1

42
5.9

3.3
7.6

7.7
— 1.9

8.9
-3.3

44
8. I

6.5
6.4

-3.0
10.2

-2.2
10.0

7.5
5.9

6.6
5.8

1976: I
II
III
IV

10.8
5.9
3. 1
2. 1

11.7
6.6
3.2
1.3

2.7
2.4
.3
1.8

46
.9
.6
2.9

7.9
3.4
2.8
.2

6.8
5.6
2.6
-1.6

13.4
8.5
8.7
8.9

11.4
9.6
8.5
7.7

5. 1
49
5.8
8.7

43
3.7
5.7
9.4

3.1
48
41
46

44
3.8
6.0
5.3

1977: I
II
III
IV

9.6
8.5
5.2
5.9

9.5
8.8
4,8
5.7

3.7
9.6
2
3.5

46
8.0
.9
3.3

5.7
-1.0
5.3
2.3

47
.8
3.8
2.3

11.3
6.5
8.4
7.7

11.3
7.6
7.5
8.2

5.3
7.5
2.9
5.3

6.3
6.8
3.5
5.8

44
7.2
5.2
5.2

3.5
7.5
7.0
43

-1.0

-.3

2.0

2.5

-2.9

-2.7

144

13.6

17.8

16.8

6.6

6.1

1978: I
1
2

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including
hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment
data.
8
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for
insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,
and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

16



* Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original
data;
therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes
shown here. Date revised for 1976.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in April following a 1.3 percent (revised) rise in March. A further resumption
of coal production following the end of the recent strike was responsible for about one-fourth of the April gain.
INDBC, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCALE)
180

INDEX, 1967=10)* (RATIO SCALE)
160

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

160

140

UTILITIES

120

100
ING

iiIn111

100 i M I t i n i t i
160

1974

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1975

ill
1976

1977

Hl

1978

PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
140

90

120

70
100
1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

* SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Period

1967 proportion
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Total industrial
produistion
Percent
Index, change
1967=
from
100
year
earlier
100. 00

119.7
129.8
129.3
117.8
129.8
137. 1

9.2
8.4
-.4

-8.9
10.2

5.6

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]
Indu stry produiction indtjxes, 1967 = 100
M,anufaeturi ng
Total

Durable

Nondurable

Mining

87.95
118.9
129.8
129.4
116.3
129. 5
137. 1

61.98
113.7
127. 1
125.7
109.3
121.7
129.5

S5.97
126.5
133.8
134.6
126. 4
140.9
148. 1

113. 1
114.7
115.3
112.8
114. 2
117. 8

5.69
139.4
145.4
143.7
146.0
151.0
156.5

83. 1
87.5
84.2
73. 6
80.2
82.4

88.0
92.4
87.7
73.6
80.4
81.9

128.0
129.3
130.5
131.6
131.3
131.7
132.4
132.7
133.4

147.0
148.5
148.4
148.6
149.4
149.5
149.6
150. 1
150.9

119.2
119.5
122.8
119.8
115.4
118.0
119.6
118.8
113.4

154.0
156. 7
156.8
161.4
155.7
154. 1
154.0
154.2
156.7

82.3
82.8
83.0
83. 1
82.9
82.9
82.9
82.9
83.0

82. 1
82.7
83.0
82.9
82.0
82.0
82.4
82.3
81.9

131. 1
131.6
134. 3
136.2

149.8
150.5
151.5
152.0

115.0
114.9
121.0
127.3

162.3
161.3
158. 1
157.6

81.7
81. 8
82.7
83.2

81.9
81.4
82.0
83.2

1977: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec

136. 1
137.0
137.8
138. 7
138. 1
138.5
138.9
139.3
139.7

5.2
6.0
6.7
5.9
5.0

135.8
137. 1
137.8
138.5
138.6
139.0
139.4
139.9
140.5

1978: Jan
Feb 9
Mar
Apr *

138.8
139.2
141.0
142. 5

4.9
4.5
4.2
4.7

138.7
139.3
141.3
142.7

5.7
5.6
6.2

6. 1

1
Output as percent of capacity.
> Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
a Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of
quarterly data.




Utilities

Manufa cturing c£ipacity ut ilization
rate, p<^rcent *
Federal Reserve
serles
WharComTotal
ton
merce2
manu- Mate- series
series 3
facturrials
ing

6. 86

83
86
83
77
81
83

91.8
97. 1
93.0
80.4
87.5
90.2

84

90.4

82

90.9

82

91.1
90.2

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System, Department of
Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and ^barton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod uets
Final I¥oduets
Equipunent

Coiisumer go ods

Period
Total

Interm ediate
prod ucts

1967 proportion - _
1970 ___
1971
1972
1973
1974 __ ___
1975
1976
1977

47.82

27.68
109.0
114.7
124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
136.2
143.4

7.89
106.1
118.8
133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.4

isai

19.79
110.1
113.1
120.6
125.6
126.3
125.1
1341
139.6

20.14
100.1
94.7
103.8
114.5
120.0
110.2
114.6

12. 63

105.3
106.3
115.7
124.4
125. 1
118.2
127.2
134.9

123.2

107.0
104.1
118.0
1342
142.4
128.2
136.3
149.2

12.89
112.9
116.7
126.5
137.2
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1

Construction
supplies
6. 42
111.0
116.8
128.4
139.8
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.8

1977: Apr__
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

134. 1
134.7
135.4
136.8
136.3
136.8
136.5
137.0
137.6

142.9
143.1
143.8
145.4
144.7
144.9
144.9
145.2
145.8

151.5
152.2
155.8
158.0
154.7
155.6
156.8
155.2
155.8

139.4
139.5
139.1
140.3
140.6
140. 7
140.1
141.2
141.8

122.1
123.2
124.1
124.8
124.9
125.6
125.0
125.8
126.2

147.1
148.9
150.1
151.2
151.1
152.1
152.6
153.5
154.0

142.3
143.5
144.7
146.3
146. 1
146.5
147.8
148.4
150.4

134.9
136.4
138.8
140.0

141.8
143.7
146.1
147.3

146.5
151.3
157.5
161.1

139.9
140.6
141.5
141.8

125.4
126.3
128.8
129.9

152.6
154.2
157.4
158.9

151.6
151.5
151.8
152.6

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total

__

1978: Jan
Feb
Mar *
Apr "_

-

_

_
_

_ _

_ _

-—

Total

Business

Total

Materials

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

109.2
111.3
122.3
133.9
132.4
115.5
ISO. 6
136.9

12.23
117.0
119.5
125.2
128.3
125.5
125.5
128.8
132.5

137.2
138.7
139.9
141.2
141.7
143.2
144.9
146. 5
148.3

136.5
137.8
138.7
138.9
137.6
137.9
138.9
139.0
138.8

132.1
132.5
133.5
135.6
131.4
132.5
133.0
132.3
129.7

149.2
148.7
149.3
150.1

139. 2
138.6
140. 1
142.4

132.5
129.3
130.4
133.5

89.29

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]
D arable m anufactu res

Primaryr metals

Non-

Iron
and
steel

Fabricated
metal
products

trical
machin-

Electrical
machin-

ery

ery

6.67
106.6
100.2
_ 112. 1
126.7
123. 1
96.4
108.9
110.2

4.21
104.7
96. 1
107. 1
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.9
103.4

5.93
102.4
103.5
112. 1
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.3
130.9

9.15
1044
100.2
116.0
133.7
140.1
125. 1
135.0
1448

8.05
108.1
107.7
122.2
143.1
143.8
116.5
131.6
141.9

89.5
97.9
108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
110.6
121. 1

1977: Apr
May
June
July____
Aug.__ _
Sept.. _ . _
Oct .Nov
Dec

112.2
117. 1
114.7
114.4
112.5
109.0
113.5
111.2
111.0

103.9
111.0
109.2
110.9
110.6
104.6
107.7
104.3
103.8

127.6
128.2
130.8
132.0
1340
133.6
133.8
135.8
136.4

142.9
142.6
1440
145.7
145.2
147.4
148.9
149.7
151.7

139.6
141.8
142.6
143.6
143. 9
1446
1442
146.0
147.3

1978: Jan
Feb—v
Mar
Apr * _

107.4
106.2
106.6
110.6

99.5
96.3
96.8

136.9
136. 7
138.3
139.5

150. 1
150.2
151.5
152.8

1440
146.4
149.2
150.4

Period
Total

1967 proportion
1970
1971
1972___ __
1973
1974
1975___
1976___
1977.

_ _
_ _

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18



Non<lurable rnanufaet ures

Transpc>rtation
equipment

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

Print- Cheming
icals
Foods
and
and
pub- prodlishing ucts

4-50
92.3
118.6
135.8
148.8
128.2
111. 1
140.7
159.7

1.64
105.6
113.8
120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
125. 1
133.4

3.31
101.4
1047
109.4
117.3
1143

7. 74
120.4
125.9
143.6

107.6
122.2
1242

4.72
107.0
107.1
112.7
118.2
118.2
113.3
120.6
1247

1545
159.4
147.2
169.3
180.7

108.9
112.8
116.8
120.9
1240
123.4
132.3
137.9

119.8
120.3
123.7
125.6
1243
125.5
1243
122.0
122.2

158.1
157.7
163.2
166.2
1644
165.6
168.4
163.0
161.8

130.6
133.0
132.4
132.9
131.8
137. 1
135.7
137.5
138.1

121.4
123.5
122. 1
121.1
124 1
127.7
129.0
125. 1
125.8

123.4
1244
1241
1249
125.0
1242
125.7
126.2
127.5

180.6
182,8
183.5
182.6
182.6
181.3
182.3
183.1
183.0

138.0
138. 3
136.9
138.3
139.3
138.3
137.3
139.4
140.4

116.2
118.4
127.5
130.7

146.6
153.0
167.0
173.2

138.5
135.5
137.3

118.6
121. 1

129. 9
127.8
128.3
129. 1

1844
183.5
184 5

139.3
140.6
141. 1

Total

9.27

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

8.76

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constructio]a contracts2

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Resid ential
Total

Commercial and
industrial

New
housing

Total l

Other

Federal.
State,
and
local

Total value
index
(1967=
100)

Commercial and
industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Billions of doll.sirs

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976__
1977

_

110.0
124 1
137.9
138.5
134.3
147.5
169. 7

80.1
93.9
105.4
100.2
93. 6
109.5
132.7

43.3
54.3
59.7
50.4
46.5
60.5
80.4

35. 1
44.9
50. 1
40.6
34.4
47.3
65. 1

17.0
18. 1
21.7
23.8
20.8
19.9
21.8

19.8
21.5
24.0
25.9
26.3
29.0
30.6

Seasonally
adjusted

Seasonally / adjusted atinual rates

163.8
167.5
172. 1
174.6
173.5
172.4
175. 1
174.4
173.1
176.7
171.3
178.2
184.5

1977: Mar
AprMay
June_July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb
Mar 9
Apr »__

128.4
131.3
133.7
135.2
134.2
134.2
135.8
136.7
137.5
140.5
137.3
143.6
148.9

76.7
79.5
82.4
82.5
81.2
81.0
81.7
83.0
84.0
87.2
81.1
86.9
90.0

62.2
63.5
65.8
66.0
65. 1
65. 1
66.4
68.8
70.4
73.0
65.4
70.6
73.5

Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations,
not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge series. Belates to 50 States beginning 1969 lor value index and
beginning 1971 for floor space.

20.8
21. 1
20.9
22. 3
22.7
22.9
23.5
23.4
23. 1
21.8
22.5
22.6
25.0

145.4
165.3
179.5
169.7
167.9
199.4
252. 2

29.9
30.2
32. 5
38.3
40.7
38.0
37.0

30.9
30.7
30.4
30.4
30.3
30.2
30.6
30.3
30.3
31.5
33.7
34.1
33.6

35.4
36.2
38.4
39.4
39.2
38.2
39.3
37.7
35.6
36.3
33.9
34.6
35.6

207
250
317
307
209
267
279
244
258
299
270
266
254
279

727
854
1,010
840
555
592
738
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rates
809
671
758
733
702
853
813
757
847
864
996
814
863
921

NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not com parable with
later data.
Sources: Department oi Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
]S few private housing unilbs

Units started by type of stnicture

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

___

Total

1 unit

1, 433. 6
2, 052. 2
2, 356. 6
2, 045. 3
1, 337. 7
1, 160. 4
1, 537. 5
1, 987. 1

812.9
1, 151. 0
1, 309. 2
1, 132. 0
888. 1
892.2
1, 162. 4
1, 450. 9

2-4
units

84.8
120.3
141.3
118.3
68. 1
64.0
85.9
121.7

5 or more
units
535.9
780.9
906.2
795.0
381.6
204.3
289.2
414.4

New priv,ate homes
Homes for
sale at
end ofl
period

Units
authorized

Units
completed

1, 351. 5
1, 924. 6
2, 218. 9
1, 819. 5
1, 074. 4
939.2
1, 296. 2
1, 685. 5

1, 418. 4
1, 706. 1
2, 003. 9
2, 100. 5
1, 728. 5
1, 317. 2
1, 377. 2
1, 657. 1

485
656
718
634
519
549
646
819

220
287
409
418
346
313
354
403

1,566
1,557
1,655
1,671
1,677
1,875
1,665
1,769
1,641
1,759
1,692
1,815

784
810
806
722
818
845
870
819
857
806
754
794

362
364
367
375
389
389
398
401
403
404
407
406

Homes
sold

Vacancy
rate for
rental
housing
units
(percent)2
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2

Seasonally adjusted arinual rates

1977: Apr
May
June_.
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb*
Mar*. -_
Apr 9
1
Seasonably
1

1,899
1,982
1,931
2,072
2,038
2,012
2, 139
2,096
2,203
1,548
1,569
2, 060
2, 189

1,433
1,469
1,406
1,453
1,454
1,508
1,532
1,544
1,574
1,156
1,103
1,444
1,502

adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.




118
120
113
124
119
124
127
134
153
101
79
127
150

348
393
412
495
465
380
480
418
476
291
387
489
537

1,655
1,656
,739
,678
,770
,695

:,78i

,822
1,778
1,526
1,534
1,647
1,752

5.3
5.4
5. 1
5.0

NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted units authorized revised beginning 1976.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau oi the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE
Business sales rose 1% percent in March while inventories rose nearly $4% billion. According to the advance survey,
retail sales rose 2 percent in April, following a 1 percent increase in March.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALED

100
jIAA
400

90

.
350

TO'fAL BUSINESS

*X

irWINTORIES

***<

••

•

r*^*

^~
70

60

~^^r

250

50

TOTAL BUS NESS
SALS

"

150

RETAIL SALES

/

« i*
+'*

RETAIL INVENTORIES

80

40
RATIO*
•1.80

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

-

-

Ill ( i l l ( M l

1974

M 1 M I II 1 1 1

1 11 11 11 1111

1 M 1 I 1 1 1 I I1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

1976

1977

1978

1975

1.20
1977

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURC& DEPARTMINT OF COMMERCE

Total b uslnessl

Who esale

Retail
2

In ventorie*3 -

Sales
Period

C5 1^. 29
Sales

Inventories3

Invencj_i__z2
bales
tories3

TVvf s* 1

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

19711972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

116,
130,
151,
175,
179,
200,
223,

351
049
647
200
621
760
793

188,
203,
233,
285,
283,
309,
334,

508
088
749
064
614
238
785

Milli ons of d<Dllars, se asonally
26, 257 35, 823 34, 169 10, 827
29, 584 39, 786 37, 422 12, 369
36, 822 46, 254 41, 871 14, 091
45, 836 56, 537 44, 543 13, 820
44, 633 55, 113 48, 370 14, 907
48, 408 61, 307 53, 542 17, 544
53, 509 67, 998 59, 029 19, 901

1977: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

221,
221,
221,
222,
221,
224,
224,
228,
231,
237,

752
048
510
563
874
247
907
508
488
258

316,
320,
322,
324,
324,
327,
330,
330,
333,
334,

976
273
250
051
990
639
345
832
186
785

52, 672
53, 385
53, 866
53, 735
53, 495
53, 208
53, 307
53, 639
55, 558
57, 266

1978:

230, 182 337, 676 55, 985 68, 991 59, 875 19, 802
238, 427 340, 396 57, 635 70, 361 61, 661 20, 558
242, 308 344, 785 58, 696 71, 828 62, 339 20, 698
63, 559 21, 710

Jan
Feb 9
Mar
Apr *

J
The term "business" also includes manufacturing
1
Monthly average for year and total for month.
8

64, 300
65, 301
64, 838
64, 947
64, 210
65, 095
66, 119
66, 209
67, 047
67, 998

57, 990
58, 142
58, 003
57, 825
58, 552
59, 020
59, 014
60, 778
61, 588
62, 054

(see page 21).

Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

20



1978

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

19, 863
19, 833
19, 516
19, 436
19, 505
19, 984
19, 763
20, 895
20, 733
20, 915

TV>f al

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

Inventoiy-4sales
ratio
Total
business1

Retail

adjusted
23, 342 50,063
25, 054 55, 079
27, 781 62, 950
30, 723 70, 716
33, 463 70, 623
35, 998 78, 045
39, 127 87, 073

21, 687
24, 238
28, 072
32, 394
32, 119
36, 417
40, 534

28, 376
30, 841
34, 878
38, 322
38, 504
41, 628
46, 539

1.58
1.50
1.44
1.47
1.58
1.48
1.44

1.39
1.40
1.41
1.48
1.43
1.39
1.40

38, 127
38, 309
38, 487
38, 389
39, 047
39, 036
39, 251
39, 883
40, 855
41, 139

37, 333
37, 615
37, 925
38, 282
39, 005
39, 303
39, 559
39, 589
40, 087
40, 534

42, 807
43, 342
43,771
44, 354
44, 478
45, 159
45, 656
45, 733
46, 212
46, 539

1.43
1.45
1.45
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.47
1.45
1.44
1.41

1.38
1.39
1.41
1,43
1.43
1.43
1.44
1.40
1.40
1.40

40,073 87, 708 41, 060 46, 648
41, 103 87, 642 41, 369 46, 273
41, 641 89, 097 41, 521 47, 576
41, 849

1.47
1.43
1.42

1.46
1.42
1.43

80, 140
80, 957
81, 696
82, 636
83, 483
84, 462
85, 215
85, 322
86, 299
87, 073

Note.—Total business and retail inventories revised beginning 1967.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS
Manufacturers* new orders, shipments, and inventories increased again in April.

OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF.DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

INVENTORIES
240
200

TOTAL

160

GOODS-^^p^-w

120

MIIi«»1*'"

100

T

DURABLE GOODS

80
60

"•••••„„„„«„„»«•'

OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
140

NONDURABLE GOODS

40

NEW ORDERS'

120
100

80

RATIO*
2.20

DURABLE GOODS

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

2.00

..

1.80

40

-NONDURABLE GOODS

1.60
1.40
1.20

1975

1974

1977

1976

1974

1978

1975

i ilii
1976

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufae turers' shi pments * Manufact urers' inv entories 2

Manu faeturers >' new ord ers

55, 925
1971
63, 043
1972
72, 954
1973
84, 821
1974
86, 616
1975 __ _
98, 809
1976
1977 — _ 111, 256

29, 973
34, 043
39, 704
44, 253
43, 678
50, 697
58, 266

25, 952
28, 999
33, 250
40, 568
42, 939
48, 112
52, 990

Durab e goods
Capital
Nongoods
Durable
Total
Total
indusgoods durable
Total
goods
tries,
nondefense
Millio ns of dolkirs, season ally adjus ted
7, 535
102,622 66, 271 36, 351 56, 016 30, 030
8,832
108, 223 70, 244 37, 979 64, 201 35, 098
124, 545 81, 333 43, 212 76, 224 42, 894 11, 114
157, 811 101, 790 56, 021 87, 200 46, 783 12, 691
157, 878 101, 580 56, 298 85, 058 41, 933 10, 781
169, 886 108, 968 60, 918 99, 134 50, 997 12, 501
179,714: 115,424 64, 290 112,842 59, 795 15, 201

1977: Apr___
May
June__
July__
Aug.—
Sept..
Oct___
-Nov__
Dee—

109, 521
109, 641
111, 003
109, 827
112, 019
112, 586
114, 091
114,342
117, 938

56, 999
57, 273
58, "049
57, 463
58, 649
59, 285
60, 316
60, 228
62, 130

52, 522
52, 368
52, 954
52, 364
53, 370
53, 301
53, 775
54, 114
55, 808

174, 015
175,716
176, 468 '
177, 297
178, 082
179,011
179, 301
179, 840
179, 714

111, 133
112, 071
112, 536
113, 160
113,917
114,467
114,448
115,212
115, 424

62,
63,
63,
64,
64,
64,
64,
64,
64,

882
645
932
137
165
544
853
628
290

111, 269
111, 102
112, 141
108, 868
112, 615
113, 680
117,331
117,024
122, 128

58, 800
58, 835
59, 111
56, 367
59, 269
60, 364
63, 556
62, 821
66, 165

1978: Jan___
Feb__.
Mar__
Apr »—

114,
119,
121,
124,

59, 973
63, 077
64, 457
66, 508

54;
56,
56,
58,

180,
182,
183,
185,

116, 278
117,511
118,725
119, 778

64,
64,
65,
65,

699
882
135
640

117,
122,
125,
128,

63,
66,
69,
70,

Period

Total

1
Monthly average
3

322
131
273
667

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

349
054
816
159

977
393
860
418

for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period,
a4 End of period.
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments
for month,




1978

1977

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOUWCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

899
693
973
267

335
681
016
077

1

ManufacNonturers'
durable unfilled3
goods orders

Manufaeturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio *

25, 986
29, 104
33, 329
40, 417
43, 125
48, 137
53, 047

107,
121,
161,
189,
170,
174,
193,

657
709
194
678
686
553
659

1.83
1. 67
1.58
1.65
1.83
1.66
1.58

14, 687
14, 893
15, 490
13, 936
14, 527
16, 124
16, 097
16, 090
16, 988

52, 469
52, 267
53, 030
52, 501
53, 346
53, 316
53, 775
54, 203
55, 963

180,
181,
182,
181,
182,
183,
186,
189,
193,

217
678
816
857
453
547
787
469
659

1.59
1. 60
1.59
1.61
1. 59
1.59
1.57
1.57
1. 52

16,
17,
17,
17,

54,
56,
56,
58,

197,
200,
205,
209,

235
798
500
103

1.58
1.53
1.52
1.49

511
882
507
354

564
012
957
190

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES

PRODUCER PRICES

In April the producer price index for all commodities rose 1.3 percent (1.0 percent seasonally adjusted). The index
for finished goods rose 1.3 percent (also 1.3 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALQ
220

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
220

200

200

180

l\
FARM PRODUaS AND
|\
PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS |

f \
I \

180

j
/
COMMODTIES

160

160

140

140
INDUSTRIAL
COMMODITIES

120

120

100

100

i il i i

, h ti

1970

1971

1972

1975

1974

1973

i 11 i i I i i i i i
1976

I t I !.. 1 I I U I I

Fiilished go ods

Total

Consumer
foods

Total

Consumer
goods

Capital
equip-l
ment

Internlediate
matetrials,
Crude3 materif ils for
furtl ler processing
suppli(38, and
comp onents
ExFoodcluding
stuffs
Total foods Total
Other
and
feedand 2
feeds
stuffs

110.3
113. 7
117.2
127.9
147.5
163. 4
170.3
180.6

113.5
115.3
121.7
146.4
166.9
181. 0
180.2
189. 1

109. 1
113. 1
115.4
120.2
139.4
156. 2
165.5
176.2

107.7
111.4
113.4
118. 5
138.6
153. 1
161. 8
172. 1

112.0
116.6
119.5
123.5
141.0
162.5
173. 2
184.5

109.9
114. 1
118.7
131.6
162.9
180.0
189.3
201.7

"C*

1970
1971__.
1972
1973
1974
1975- _ _
1976
1977

Farm
All
products Induscom- and proc- trial
modiessed
comties
foods
modand feeds ities

110.4
__ 114.0
119. 1
134. 7
160. 1
_ 174.9
183.0
194. 2

111.7
113.9
122.4
159. 1
177.4
184.2
183. 1
188.8

110.0
114. 1
117.9
125.9
153.8
171.5
182.4
195. 1

Exclu ding con sumer
foods

l Jnadjustec

1977: Apr__
May__
June..
July..
Aug_.
Sept__
Oct___
Nov__
Dec__
1978: Jan___
Feb__
Mar__
Apr__

194.3
195.2
194. 5
194.8
194.6
195.3
196.3
197. 1
198.2
199.9
202. 0
203. 8
206.4

1
2

195.9
196.8
191.5
188.7
184.3
184.0
184.0
187.0
189.4
192. 1
196.6
200.3
205. 5




109.9
114.3
118.9
128. 1
159. 5
178.6
189.5
202.4

112. 3
115. 1
127.6
174.0
196. 1
196. 9
205. 1
214. 3

112.3
115. 1
127.6
174.0
196. 1
196.9
205. 1
214.3

112.7
117.0
128.0
162.5
208.9
206. 9
233.6
258.4

200.5
201. 2
201. 8
203.2
204.2
205.3
206. 1
206.4
207.4
209. 1
210. 8
211. 9
213. 0

225.5
222.3
213.4
209.8
206.3
205.7
207.4
214.4
217.2
221.6
228. 7
232. 4
238.3

204.3
200.0
189.9
185. 8
180.2
179.8
182. 2
189.9
191. 1
196.4
205.6
209.2
217.0

265.5
264. 1
257.9
255.4
255.6
254.4
254.9
260.9
266.3
269.4
272. 2
276.2
278.7

Seasonalljr adjuste d

193.3
194.2
194.7
195.9
196. 9
197.8
199. 1
199. 3
200.0
201.5
202.8
204. 1
206.0

179. 2
180.6
180.8
181. 1
181.5
182. 1
183. 2
184. 5
185.3
186.4
188.4
189. 5
191.9

189.6
192. 2
190.3
189. 9
189.3
189.2
189.5
191.9
192. 6
194.7
200.4
202. 0
205. 8

174.3
175.2
176.0
176.5
177.2
178.2
179. 5
180.3
181.2
182. 1
182.9
183. 8
185.7

Formerly called producer finished goods.
Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured
animal feeds.

22

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Period

1977

170.7
171.5
172.4
172.6
173.2
174. 1
174.8
175. 4
176. 1
176. 9
177.5
178.3
180. 7

181. 7
182.8
183.7
184. 5
185.4
186.4
188.9
189. 9
191.3
192.0
193.3
194.5
195. 6

201. 1
202. 0
201.6
202. 2
202. 6
203. 5
204.3
205. 2
206.0
207. 8
209.7
211.3
212. 3

NOTE.—Data revised for November and December 1977.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In April, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.9 percent (also 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted).
Food prices increased 1.6 percent (1.9 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.8 percent (0.5
percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.8 percent (0.9 percent seasonally adjusted).
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
220

200

120

100

1970

1971

1972

1974

1973

1975

1977

1976

1978

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967=100]

Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

All

items

116.3
121.3
125.3
133. 1
147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5

Food

114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
180.8
192.2

Services

112.5
116.8
119.4
123.5
136. 6
149. 1
156.6
165. 1

121.6
128.4
133.3
139. 1
152. 1
166.6
180.4

1943

commodities

All

113.5
117.4
120.9
129.9
145.5
158.4
165.2
174.7

114.9
118.4
123.5
141.4
161.7
175.4
180.8
192.2

Food
at
home

Food
away
from
home

113.7
116.4
121.6
141.4
162.4
175.8
179.5
190.2

119.9

May

180.6
June
181.8
July... 182.6
Aug
183.3
Sept___ 184.0
184.5
Oct
Nov
185.4
186. 1
Dec

1978: Jan

187.2

Apr

191.5

Feb.— 188.4
Mar— .. 189.8

190.9
191.7
193.6
194. 6
195.2
194.5
194.4
195.6
196.3

163.6
164.7
165.4
165.6
166.0
166.7
167.4
168. 1
168.4

191.2
192. 2
193.7
195.3
196.3
197.7
198.5
199.5
200.5

173.7
174.4
175. 1
175.2
175.7
176.2
176.7
177.5
178.3

191.5
192.6
193.8
193.5
194.3
194.7
195.0
196.0
196.7

189.8
190.9
191.9
191.3
192.0
192.3
192.5
193.5
194.2

199.2

168.6
168.8
170.0
171.3

202.0
203.5
204.9
206.5

179.9
180.8
182. 3
184.0

199.2
201.6
204.3
208. 1

197.0
199.5
202.5
207.3

202.0
204.2

207. 5

Note.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier
data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.




126. 1
131. 1
141. 4
159.4
174.3
186. 1

200.3

All

112.5
116.8
119.4
123.5
136.6
149. 1
156.6
165. 1

Durable

Nondur-

Services

able

111.8
116.5
118.9
121.9
130.6
145.5
154.3
163.2

113. 1
117.0
119.8

1248
140.9
151.7
158.3
166.5

121.6
128.4
133.3
139. 1
152.1
166.6
180.4
1943

164. 1
164.6
165. 1
165.4
165.7
166.2
166.8
167.6
168.4

162.6
163.3
163.3
163.4
163.6
163.9
164.4
165. 1
166.0

165.0
165.8
166.4
166.9
167.2
167.8
168.6
169.4
169.9

191.4
192.9
1943
195.7
196.8
197.9
198.7
199.5
200.3

169.5
169.9
170.9
171. 8

167.6
168.7
169.5
170.4

170.6
170. 1
171.2
172. 1

201.5
203.0
204.7
206.6

Seasonal ly adjust ed

Unacljusted
1977: Apr____ 179.6

Comrnodities le ss food

Food

Com-

modities
less
food

197.5
199.3

200.9

201.8

203.0
203.8
204.5

205. 1
206. 1
208.4

210.5
212. 5
214.0

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES

Period

1969
1970
1971___. .
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Apr..
May_
June.
July..
Aug..
Sept..
Oet_.
Nov..
Dec..
1978: Jan..
Feb..
Mar_
Apr__

Farm
products Industrial
and
comprocessed modifoods and
ties
feeds

All
commodities
4.8
2.2
41
6.3
15.4
20.9
4.2
4.7
5.9
1.0
.4
-.5
.1
.1
.4
.5
.7
.4
.9
1.0
1.0
1.0

7.5
-1.4
6.0
14.4
26.7
11.0
-.3
-1. 1
3.0
2.2
0
-3.0
-2.3
-1.2
-.5
.8
2.4
.3
1. 1
2.5
2.9
2.1

a9
3.6
a4

3.4
10.7
25.6
6.0
6.4
6.7
.7
.5
.3
.6
.5
.5
.5
.3
.5
.7
.7
.5
.7

Perec;nt change f rom 6 m onths
ear iier; seasonailly adjussted
annual rates

Perc€ nt change firom 3 m onths
ear ier; seasonally adjusted
annual irates

Perce nt change fi om preceding
peri od; seasonal ly adjus ted 1

Finished
goods

All
commodities

48
2.2
3.2
3.8
11.8
18.3
6.6
3.3
6.6
.7
.8
.1
.2
.2
.3
.6
.7
.4
.6
1. 1
.6
1.3

Farm
products Industrial
and
comprocessed modifoods and
ties
feeds

13.6
10.5
40
0
-1.2
2.1
4.0
6.5
6.7
8.2
9.4
12.0
12.8

»Annual changes are Iron December to December (unadjusted).
NOTE.—Data revised for November and December 1977.

29.5
19.3
-3. 1
-19.2
—22.9
-148
-3.6
11. 1
145
16.0
16.4
28.8
33.9

9.4
8.0
6.4
5.9
5.9
6.7
6. 1
5.2
5.2
6.2
7.8
7.8
8.0

Finished
goods

All
commodities

10.5
9.4
6.4
43
2. 0
2.9
47
6. 8
7.2
7.2
8.7
9.4
12.3

10. 1
9.9
7.5
6. 6
45
3.0
2.0
2.6
44
6. 1
8.0
9.3
10.5

Farm
products Industrial
and
comprocessed modifoods and
ties
feeds

19.0
18.6
7.5
2.3
-4 1
-9. 1
-11.7
-7.5
-1.3
5.8
13.7
21.4
246

7.7
7.5
7.6
7.7
6.9
6.6
6.0
5.5
5.9
6. 1
6.5
6. 5
7.1

Finished
goods

9.2
10.0
8.2
7.3
5.6
47
45
4.4
5.0
5.9
7.7
8.3
9.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
Percen t change; from preceding
perio d; seasoiially adju sted1
Period

All
items

Food

Commodities
iless
food

Services

1969
1970
1971
1972
_
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Apr.__
May..
June..
July...
Aug...
Sept
Oct...
Nov...
Dec.__

6.1
5.5
3.4
3.4
8.8
12.2
7.0
48
6.8
.8
.6
.5
.3
.4
.4
.3
.4
.4

7.2
2.2
43
4.7
20.1
12.2
6.5
.6
8.0
1.5
.6
.6
-.2
.4
.2
.2
.5
.4

45
48
2.3
2.5
5.0
13.2
6.2
5. 1
49
.4
.3
.3
.2
.2
.3
.4
.5
.5

7.4
8.2
41
3.6
6.2
11.3
8. 1
7.3
7.9
.7
.8
.7
.7
.6
.6
.4
.4
.4

1978: Jan...
Feb...
Mar__
Apr

.8
.6
.8
.9

1.3
1.2
1.3
1.9

.7
.2
.6
.5

.6
.7
.8
.9

Percent c aange f re>m 3 mont tis earlier ; Percent c lange f re m 6 mont is earlier ;
seasonsilly adjussted annu al rates
seasonailly adjussted annu<al rates
All
items

10.2




Services

All
items

Food

Commodities
iless
food

Services

7.8
5.7
5.0
45
45
47
49

18.6
11.6
11.5
42
3.6
1.9
3. 1
3.5
42

6.1
48
42
3.2
2.7
2.7
3.4
47
5.4

9.0
9.9
9.4
9.3
8.3
7.6
6.3
5.6
49

8.0
8.7
8.9
7.9
6.6
6. 1
5. 1
48
47

10.6
12.6
13.4
11.2
7.5
6.6
3.7
3.6
3.0

6.5
6.2
5.8
46
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.7
40

8.0
8.7
9.6
9.2
9. 1
8.5
7.8
7.0
6.3

6.7
7.5
9.3
10.0

8.9
11.9
16.4
19.1

6.6
5.6
6. 1
5.5

5.8
7.2
9. 1
10.5

5.6
6.1
7. 1
8.3

6.0
7.7
10. 1
13.9

5.0
5. 1
5.7
6.1

6.0
6.4
7.0
8.1

a4

1
Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
Note.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data
relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.

24

Food

Commodities
iless
food

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose about 31/2 percent in May. Contributing to the increase were higher prices for cattle,
apples, hogs, and soybeans. Partially offsetting were lower prices for eggs, tomatoes, and onions. Prices paid by
farmers were up about 11A percent in the month ended May 1 5.
INDEX, 1967=100

(RATIO SCALE)

PRICES RECEIVED
(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)

PRICES PAID
(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,
TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

70 60

I

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Prices paid by far tners
All
items,
Livestock interest,
Family
Production
living
and
taxes,
and
items
items
products wage rates
Index, 1 967=100

Prices received by farmers
Period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

_

All farm
products

_
_ _

_

_

1977: Apr
May _ _
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr_
May _

__ _

_ _
_ _
___

__

_

__

Crops

110
113
125
179
192
185
186
183

100
108
114
175
224
201
197
193

118
118
136
183
165
172
177
175

112
118
125
144
164
180
191
202

(3)

191
193
184
180
175
174
178
179
181

214
214
198
182
173
171
178
185
183

172
176
173
179
177
177
177
174
180

204
204
204
203
201
201
201
202
203

186
193
200
208
215

188
190
198
208
214

185
196
204
209
217

209
211
214
216
219

1
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid,
aterest taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.
*The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to
.armers.




114
118
123
133
151
166
176

Parity ratio *
Actual

Adjusted 2

108
113
121
146
166
182
193
200

72
71
74
91
86
76
71
67

77
75
79
94
87
76
72
68

(3)
(33)
( 3)
(3)
()
(33)
( 3)
(3)
()

204
205
203
201
198
197
198
199
199

69
70
66
65
64
63
65
65
66

70
71
68
66
65
65
66
66
67

(33)
(3)
(3)
(3)
()

203
206
211
214
217

65
67
69
71
72

67
69
71
73
74

3
Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted
in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
OR

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS

MONEY STOCK

The monetary aggregates grew strongly in April repeating the year-ago pattern.
1ILUQNS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCAL^

BIIUONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO «

200

1977

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE^ BOARD OF GOVERNORS OP THE FEDERAl RESERVE SYSTEM

1978

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Over all measiures 1

Deposits at co mmereia I banks
Period
M!

M2

M8

Currency

Tinrte and sa vings
Demand
Total

1972: Dec.._
1973: Dec___
1974: Dec—
1975: Dec___
1976: Dec___
1977: Dec___
1977: Apr...
May__
June..
July._
Aug___
Sept__
Oet___
Nov__
Dec___
1978: Jan___
Feb...
Mar__
Apr p__

255.3
270.5
282.9
294.5
312.6
336.7
322.0
322.4
324.3
327.5
329.2
331.6
334. 6
334.7
336.7
339.4
339. 1
340. 1
345.5

525.3
571.4
612.2
664. 1
739. 6
807.6
764.9
768.4
774.2
782.9
787.9
793.8
800.2
803.8
807.6
813.6
816.6
820.2
827.9

844.4
919.2
981.2
1, 091. 8
1, 235. 6
1, 374. 2
1, 282. 2
1, 290. 9
1, 302. 0
1, 317. 2
1, 330. 0
1, 343. 5
1, 356. 7
1, 365. 5
1, 374. 2
1, 384. 3
1, 390. 6
1, 397. 8
1, 409. 1

56.8
61.5
67.8
73.7
80.7
88.5
83. 1
83.8
84.2
85. 1
85.5
86.3
87. 1
87.7
88.5
89.3
90.0
90.6
91.2

198.4
209.0
215. 1
220.8
231.9
248.2
238.9
238.6
240. 1
242.3
243.7
245.3
247.5
247.0
248.2
250. 1
249. 1
249. 5
254.3

313.5
363.9
418.3
450.9
489.7
544.9
504.5
508.9
513.2
518.3
521.9
525.9
531.9
540.0
544.9
550. 5
556.8
562. 1
565. 9

'Mi is currency plus demand deposits; Mz is Mi plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and Ms is M2 plus
deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

26



Pensent2
cha nge

Compon ents and related H ;ems

Large
CDs
43.5
63.0
89.0
81.3
62.7
74.0
61.6
62.9
63.3
62.8
63.2
63.8
66.4
70.9
74.0
76.3
79.4
82.0
83.4

Other
270.0
300.9
329.3
369.6
427.0
470.9
442.9
446.0
449.9
455. 5
458.7
462. 1
465.5
469. 1
470.9
474.2
477.5
480. 1
482. 4

Deposits
at
nonbank
thrift
institutions

U.S. Government
demand
deposits
(unadjusted)

319.2
347.8
369. 1
427.8
496.0
566.5
517.3
522.4
527.8
534.3
542. 1
549.8
556. 5
561.7
566.6
570.7
574.0
577.7
581. 1

7.4
6. 3
49
4. 1
4.4
5. 1
5.4
3.6
5.0
3.6
3.4
5.0
3.7
3.5
5. 1
4.2
4.2
4.6
4.8

M,

9. 1
6.0
4.6
4. 1
6. 1
7.7
7.8
7.7
7.6
8.2
8.3
8.5
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.4
6. 1
5.2
6.6

M2

11.3
8.8
7. 1
8.5
11.4
9.2
11.2
10.2
9.6
10.0
9.7
9.6
9.4
9.4
8.8
8.0
7,4
6.8
7.0

2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are
from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Curre ncy and c ieposits
Period

U.S. Tireasury
secuiities

Time cIeposits

Total
liquid
assets

Total

Currency

Demand
deposits

Commercial
banks

ShortNonbank
term
Savings marketthrift
bonds able seinstitutions
curities

Negotiable
certificates of
deposit

Other
private
money
market
instruments

1970: Dec__ _._
1971: Dec__ _
1972: Dec— _
1973: Dec__
1974: Dec
1975: Dec- .
1976: Dec
1977: Dec

_
_

769.7
852.5
967.7
1, 079. 3
1, 166. 9
1, 290. 1
1, 423. 3
1, 596. 2

632.7
719.0
816. 9
887. 4
945.0
1, 054. 5
1, 194. 1
1, 328. 5

49. 1
52.6
56.8
61.5
67.8
73.7
80.7
88.5

152.0
161.8
176. 4
183.3
186.9
191.5
198.8
213.5

198.9
233.6
264.4
294.5
321. 2
360.6
417.3
460.0

232.7
271. 1
319.3
348. 1
369. 1
428.6
497. 3
566.5

52. 0
54. 3
57.5
60.4
63. 3
67.2
71. 9
76. 6

41.9
31.5
34.5
43.3
47.7
66. 9
66.6
75. 8

21.8
27. 6
36. 2
53.8
70. 4
58.5
43.5
53.3

21.3
20. 1
22. 5
34.5
40.6
43.0
47. 3
61.9

1977: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept.
Oct _

- _ 1, 478. 8
1, 487. 9
1, 498. 4
1, 515. 1
1, 529. 8
1, 546. 0
1, 565. 5
1, 582. 1
1, 596. 2

1, 240. 7
1, 248. 6
1, 258. 6
1, 273. 5
1, 285. 1
1, 299. 0
1, 312. 5
1, 320. 5
1, 328. 5

83. 1
83.8
84. 2
85. 1
85.5
86. 3
87. 1
87. 7
88.5

207.2
206.5
207. 2
209. 1
209. 2
210. 9
213.7
212. 9
213.5

433. 0
435.9
439. 4
444.9
448.3
452. 0
455.2
458.2
460.0

517.3
522.4
527.8
534. 3
542. 1
549.8
556.5
561. 7
566.5

73.4
73.8
74.2
74. 7
75. 1
75.4
75.8
76.2
76.6

69.7
68.3
67. 1
68.2
70.7
72. 3
74. 1
75.3
75.8

42.4
43. 4
43.7
43.4
43.7
44. 1
46. 4
50.7
53.3

52.5
53.8
54.8
55. 3
55.2
55.2
56.8
59. 4
61.9

1, 613. 1
1, 624. 8
1, 635. 9
1, 651. 1

1, 339. 1
1, 345. 4
1, 352. 7
1, 364. 6

89. 3
90.0
90.6
91. 2

215.8
214.8
215.0
219.7

463.4
466.8
469.6
472. 3

570.5
573. 8
577.5
581.3

77.0
77.4
77.8
78. 2

78. 2
79.4
79. 1
79.5

54.5
56. 1
57.8
59.0

64.4
66.5
68. 5
69.8

Nov

_
_

Dec

1978: Jan ___
Feb
MarApr v

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Instalm ent credit ei^tended
Period
Total i

1970
_ _ _
1971__ _
_ _
1972
1973
1974
_
1975 _
_ _
1976
_
1977_

112,
123,
137,
157,
157,
164,
193,
225,

Automobile

Bank
credit
cards

Total i

107,
113,
121,
138,
147,
156,
172,
194,

Automobile

Bank
credit
cards

4,852
10, 043
15, 191
19, 707
9,280
7,504
20, 533
31, 090

2,406
2,576
2, 621
2, 640
2,566
2, 711
2,847
2,973
2, 828
2, 973

15, 525
15, 886
15, 849
16, 388
16, 167
16, 553
16, 814
17, 160
16, 826
17, 402

4,816
4,901
4, 801
5,100
4,897
5, 104
5, 005
5,234
5,089
5,424

2, 142
2,298
2,430
2,403
2,382
2, 396
2,567
2,687
2, 585
2,723

2,971
2, 898
2, 655
2,422
2,464
2, 651
2,351
2, 626
2,853
2, 736

1,241
1,297

263
278
192
238
184
315
279
287
243
250

2,948
3, 143
3,231

17, 162
17, 518
17, 527

5,078
5, 296
5,300

2, 788
2,858
2, 783

2,424
2,661
4,068

1, 185
1, 104
1,522

160
285
448

1977: Mar_
Apr
May _ _ _
June
Julv
Aug_
Sept.—
Oct _—
Nov__
Dec _

18, 496
18, 784
18, 503
18, 810
18, 631
19, 204
19, 164
19, 787
19, 680
20, 138

6, 199
6, 106
6,048
6, 063
5, 966
6, 158
6, 109
6,083
6,330
6,721

1978: Jan
Feb-

19, 586
20, 179
21, 595

6,263
6,400
6,822




Total i

5,615
7,679
9,472
12, 433
15, 655
19, 208
24, 012
28, 851

6,768
8,377
10, 390
13, 863
17, 098
20, 428
25, 862
31, 761

Includes some items not shown separately.

Bank
credit
cards

30, 440
31, 614
37, 188
42, 642
44, 929
48, 406
52, 750
59, 652

30, 094
35, 820
42, 700
48, 399
45, 429
51, 413
62, 988
72, 888

1

Automobile

Net change in amount cmtstanding

444
784
926
156
920
665
795
555

296
826
117
863
200
169
328
645

Mar

Instalmt;nt credit He uidated

-347
4,207
5, 512
5,758
500

3, 007
10, 238
13, 235

1,383
1,205
1,247
963

1,069
1,054
1, 105
850

1, 153
699
918

1,430
1,443
1,220
1,850
2,911

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Total loans and investments at commercial banks grew rapidly in April.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS *(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
TOTAL
LOANS AND INVESTMENTS

:

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

INVESTMENT IN
US. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

60

I I l i l t M| \

40

I I 1 M I I I 1 I I I MM 1 I M I I | . 40

1978.
•"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH
SOURCEs BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

T>

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All merniber ban ks
All c ommercial 1mnks l
Borrowiiigs (milInvestuaents
L oans
I Reserves 2 3
lions of dollars,
Total
unadju isted) 2
loans
and Total ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other
invest- cluding cial and
SeaNonReernment
secuTotal
Total
ments
inter- industrial securities
borrowed quired
sonal
rities
bank

• ,3

1970
1971
1972
1973
—
1974
1975
1976
1977 *—
1977: Apr
May
June
July*
Aug*
Sept* _.
Get*
Nov*_-_
Dec*

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

—
_.
—
__
_

_
_

1978: Jan*
Feb*_-_ _
Mar*.__ _ _
Apr *—

4

186.7
188.2
190.2
192.4
194.6
195. 1
199.3
201.6
6
202. 2

57.8
60.6
62.6
54.5
50.4
79.4
97.3
93.5
103. 2
105. 1
105.2
103.6
103. 1
100. 1
97.8
95. 0
93.5

85.7
104. 2
116. 5
129.9
139.8
144.8
148. 2
159.0
151.8
152.7
152.9
154.4
155. 5
156. 1
157.6
159.9
159. 0

29. 11
31. 17
31. 34
34. 91
36.57
34.68
34. 93
36. 14
34. 77
34.80
34.82
35.27
35. 50
35.52
35.81
35.96
36. 14

28.78
31.04
30.29
33. 61
35.84
34.55
34. 88
35.57
34.69
34. 60
34.56
34.95
34.44
34. 89
34.50
35. 10
35.57

28.86
30.98
31.06
34. 61
36.31
34.42
34. 65
35.95
34. 57
34.60
34.67
35.00
35.30
35.31
35.60
35.71
35.95

204. 6
207. 1
211.0
214. 4

92.5
97.5
96.5
98. 4

159.4
159.0
158. 8
16L4

36. 60
36.93
36.67
36.95

36. 12
36. 53
36.34
36. 40

36.33
36.69
36.47
36.81

435.5
485.7
558.0
633. 4
690. 4
721. 1
784.4
865.4
815.7
823. 9
830.5
837.0
845.6
848.4
857. 9
866. 1
865.4

292. 0
320. 9
378.9
449.0
500. 2
496.9
538.9
612.9
560.7
566. 1
572. 4
579.0
587.0
592. 2
602.5
611.2
612.9

110.0
116. 1
130.2
156.4
183. 3
176.0
5
179. 5
6
202. 2

874.3
881.9
888.8
904.8

622. 4
625.4
633.5
645.0

1
Data are for end of period.
3
Averages of daily figures. Annual
8

data are for December.
Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages
with
no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M.
4
During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to

28



321
107

1,049
1,298
703
127
62
558

73
200
262
336

41
32
13
12
54

840
558

14
31
55
60
101
112
114
83
54

481
405
344
539

32
52
47
43

1,071
634

1,319

a bank
merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank •
5
Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,19766
Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $0.3 billion in December 1977Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources

Total

Purchase
of
physical
assets *

Increase
in
financial
assets

External
Period
Total

Internal 1

Credilb market 1"unds
Total
Tntfll

Longterm 2

Short-3
term

Other

Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

104.3
127. 1
152.9
180.7
180.7
148.4
213.5
241.0

58.9
68.6
80.8
83.8
75.7
107.8
125.8
135.9

45.5
58.5
72.2
96.9
105.0
40.6
87.7
105. 1

40.7
44 5
57.7
72.7
81.8
36.6
58.3
83.4

32. 1
40.6
40.7
37.0
39. 1
49.3
48.6
49.2

8.6
3.9
17.0
35.7
42.7
12.7
9.7
342

48
14 1
145
24 2
23.2
41
29.4
21. 8

95.9
1146
136.5
162.6
163. 5
132.3
197.2
220.4

80.3
86.0
100.3
123.3
1347
98.6
140.3
170.3

15.6
28.6
36.2
39.3
28.9
33.7
56.9
50. 1

8.4
12.5
16.5
18.1
17.1
16.2
16.3
20.7

1976: I
II
III
IV

219.8
220.4
204.3
209.5

125.4
125.0
130.5
122.3

944
95.5
73.8
87.2

52. 1
60.2
51.7
69.4

50. 1
46.8
51.0
46.6

2. 1
13.4
.7
22. 8

42. 3
35.3
22. 1
17.8

203. 2
202.5
192.6
190.5

1343
143. 1
150.4
133.4

68.9
59.4
42. 1
57. 1

16.6
17.9
11.7
19.0

1977: I
II
III
IV

254.6
202. 1
250.8
256.7

125.7
134.8
145. 1
138.0

128.9
67.3
105. 7
118.7

81. 2
73.3
75.5
103.4

38.2
38.8
55. 1
65.0

43.3
34.7
20. 4
38. 4

47.6
-5.9
30. 1
15.3

235.8
188.9
223. 8
232.8

160. 1
167.6
181.4
171.9

75.7
21. 3
42. 4
60.9

18.8
13. 2
26.9
23.9

1978: I*.

243.2

126.9

116.3

94.2

33. 1

61. 1

22. 1

225. 9

179.6

46. 3

17.4

1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.
* Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.
* Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,
and Government loans.

* Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights.
NOTE.—Data revised for 1977.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars]

Cur] rent liabi lities

Ciirrent asscits

Total

Cash
on
hand
and
in
banks l

U.S.
Government
securities2

Receivables
from
U.S.
Government 3

492.3
529.6
573.5
643.3
712.2
731.6
816.8

50.2
53.3
57.5
61.6
62.7
68. 1
77.0

7.7
11.0
9.3
11. 0
11.7
19. 4
26.4

42
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
43

753.5
1976:1
!!___ 775.4
III_. 791.8
IV.__ 816.8

68.4
70.8
71. 1
77.0

21.7
23.3
23.9
26.4

1977: I

75.0
77.9
79. 1

27.3
24 1
24 1

End of
period

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

845.3
!!___ 8747
III.. 909.8

Notes
and
accounts
receivable




Federal
income
tax
liabilities

Other
current
liabili-5
ties

Net
working
capital

Other
Incurvenrent
tories
assets4

Total

201.9
217. 6
240.0
266. 1
289.7
2946
323.9

193.3
200.4
215.2
246. 7
288.0
285. 8
315.4

35.0
43.8
48. 1
54 4
56. 6
60.0
69.8

304.9
326.0
352.2
401.0
450.6
457. 5
499.9

6.6
49
40
43
5.2
6.4
7.0

204.7
215.6
230. 4
261.6
287.5
281. 6
295.9

10.0
13. 1
15. 1
18. 1
23.2
20.7
26.8

83.6
92. 4
102.6
117.0
134.8
148.8
170.2

187.4
203.6
221.3
242.3
261.5
274 1
316.9

3.6
3.7
43
4.3

307.3
318. 1
324.2
323.9

288.8
295. 6
302. 1
315.4

63.6
63.9
66.3
69.8

465.9
475.9
484 1
499.9

6.4
6.8
7.0
7.0

280.5
287.0
2847
295.9

23.9
22.0
249
26.8

155.0
160. 1
167.5
170.2

287.6
299.4
307.7
316.9

4.6
48
5. 3

342.0 322. 1
356.6 332. 5
373.8 343. 1

74.3
78.8
845

516.6
532.0
556. 3

6.8
5.7
6.2

302.2
313.2
323.6

28.6
245
26.9

179.0
188,6
199.7

328.7
342.7
353.5

i Includes time certificates of deposit.
Includes Federal agency issues.
* Receivables from and payables to the U.S. Government do not include
amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from
subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government.
Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government
advances offset against inventories on corporations' books.
3

Advances
and
Notes
and
prepayacments. counts
payU.S.
Govable
ern- 3
ment

* Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and
time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets.
5 Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt due
in less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Both the discount rate and the banks' prime rate were raised in May as most market rates continued to rise.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER ANNUM

1978

1970

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW

[Percent per annum]

U.S. Tre asury security yields
Period

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr_
May* _ _
Week ended:
1978: May 5_ —
12___
19_ —
26_
June 2
1

3-month
bills *

Constant rnaturities 2
3-year

10-year

High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount
municipal
mercial
rate
Aaa
(N.Y.
bonds
paper,
hrmrlc;
(Standard
F.R.
4-6
Bank)*
& Poor's)3 (Moody's) months

4.071
7.041
7.886
5.838
4.989
5.265
4.942
5.004
5. 146
5, 500
5.770
6. 188
6. 160
6.063
6.448
6.457
6.319
6.306
6.430

5.72
6.95
7.82
7.49
6.77
6.69
6.55
6.39
6.51
6.79
6.84
7. 19
7.22
7.30
7.61
7.67
7.70
7.85
8.07

6.21
6.84
7.56
7.99
7.61
7.42
7.46
7.28
7.33
7.40
7.34
7.52
7.58
7.69
7.96
8.03
8.04
8. 15
8.34

5.27
5. 18
6.09
6.89
6.49
5.56
5.64
5.53
5.50
5.46
5.37
5.53
5.38
5.48
5.60
5.51
5.49
5.71

7.21
7. 44
8.57
8.83
8.43
8.02
8.05
7.95
7.94
7.98
7.92
8.04
8.08
8. 19
8.41
8.47
8.47
8.56
8.68

4.69
8. 15
9.87
6.33
5.35
5. 60
5.35
5.49
5.41
5.84
6. 17
6.55
6.59
6. 64
6.79
6.80
6.80
6.86
7. 10

6H-6H
6H-7

6.460
6.464
6.318
6.476
6.658

7.99
8.06
8.07
8. 14

8.28
8.35
8.35
8.39

5.86
5.91
5.90
6.08

8.62
8. 65
8.69
8.76

6.99
7.05
7. 15
7.21

6}i-6K2
6/2-7
7-7
7-7

Rate on new issues within period.
2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities
by the Treasury Department.
* Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
* Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30



4.50
6.45
7.83
6.25
5.50
5.46
5H-5K
5^-5K
5K-5K
51/4-5%
5%-5%
5%-6
6-6
6-6
6-6K

m-&A
&/r-m

Prime
rate
charged
by
banks 4

5.25
8.03
10.81
7.86
6.84
6.83
6K-6%
6%-6%
6%-6%
6%-7
7 -7K
7^-7%
7K-7%
7K-7J4
7%-8
8-8
8-8
8-8
8-8^2

Newhome
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)s
7.60
7.95
8.92
9.01
8.99
9.01
8.96
8.98
9.00
9.02
9.04
9.07
9.07
9.09
9. 15
9. 18
9.26
9.30

8-8^
8K-8K

sK-stf

8^-8X2

* Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting
fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment
at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with
prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service,
and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices continued to rise in May.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5

INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50
80

10

10

-5

5 ~

1978

1970

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

Common stock 5 yields
(perc ent)

Comrnon stock p]rices 1
Period

New York Stock Exch ange indexe s(Dec. 31, ]L965=50) *
Composite Industrial Transportation

1972
1973
1974
1975 _
_ _ _
1976
1977
1977: May
June
July
Aug
Sept__. _
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan
Feb
Mar
_
Apr
May
Week ended:
1978: Apr 28
May 5
12
19
26
J
2

Utility

60.29
57.42
43.84
45.73
54.46
53.69
53.96
54.30
54. 94
53.51
52.66
51.37
51.87
51. 83
49.89
49.41
49.50
51.75
54.49

65.73
63.08
48.08
50.52
60. 44
57.86
58. 13
58.44
58. 90
57.30
56. 41
54.99
55. 62
53. 55
53. 45
52.80
52.77
55.48
59. 14

50. 17
37.74
31.89
31. 10
39.57
41. 09
43.25
43.29
43. 52
41.04
39.99
38.33
39.30
39.75
39. 15
38.90
38.95
41. 19
44.21

38.48
37.69
29.79
31.50
36.97
40. 92
41. 14
41.59
42.44
41.50
40.93
40. 38
40.33
40.36
39.06
39.02
39.26
39.69
39.47

78.35
70. 12
49.67
47. 14
52.94
55.25
54.80
55.29
57. 29
56. 52
55.33
53.24
54.04
53.85
50. 91
50. 60
51.44
55.04
57.95

950. 71
923. 88
759. 37
802. 49
974.92
894. 63
926. 31
916. 56
908. 20
872. 26
853. 30
823. 96
828. 51
818. 80
781. 09
763. 57
756. 37
794. 66
838. 56

53.67
53.97
54.09
55.31
54.61

57.91
58. 36
58.62
60. 18
59.39

43. 13
43.77
44.01
44.94
44. 20

39.87
39.75
39. 40
39.52
39.27

57.47
57.35
57.63
59.03
57. 99

832.
833.
828.
841.
841.

Average? of daily closing prices.
Includes all the stocks (more than 1.500) listed on the NYSE.
s8 Includes 30 stocks.
* Includes 500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing
Prices. Earnings-Driee ratios based on orices at end of Quarter.




Finance

Standard
& Poor's
Dowcomposite DividendJones
index
industrial3
ratio
average (1941-43=
10)*

17
37
74
44
13

109. 20
107. 43
82.85
86. 16
102. 01
98.20
98.76
99.29
100. 18
97.75
96.23
93.74
94.28
93.82
90. 25
88.98
88.82
92. 71
97.41

2.84
3.06
4.47
4.31
3.77
4.62
457
4.60
4.59
4.72
4.82
4.97
5.02
5. 11
5.32
5.49
5.62
5.42

96.38
96.73
96.66
98.89
97.52

5.19
5.23
5.25
5.07
5.21

Earningsprice
ratio
5.50
7.12
11.59
9. 15
8.90
10.79
10.37
11.09
11.45

_

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
r\ T

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
In the first 7 months of fiscal 1978 the budget deficit was $48.0 billion. A year earlier the deficit was $37.0 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOUARS
-~*

500

|50Q

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

.400

400

OUTLAYS
300

300

RECEIPTS

200

200

50

SURPLUS M OR DEFICIT (-)
0

-50

-100

-100
1970

1971

1974

1973

1972

1975

1976

'1977

1978

1979

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADY1SEW

SOURCES, OErARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND IUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Period

Receipts

Fiscal year or period:
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
___.
1976
Transition quarter :
1977
1978 (estimates)2
1979 (estimates) :
Current Budget Estimates, March 19782
First Concurrent Resolution, May 1978 3
Cumulative total first 7 months:
Fiscal year 1977
Fiscal year 1978
1
Excludes
1

_

__ _




Surplus or
deficit (~)

Held bv
the public

-59.6
-50.9

873.7

690.8

-37.0
-48.0

681.9
746.4

5346
591.0

401. 9
453.5

439.8
447.9

499. 4
498.8

195.0
211.7

232.0
259.7

947

Total l

279.5
2849
3043
323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
617.8

-148
-47
-45. 1
-66.4
-13.0
-45.0
-53.0

184.5
196.6
211.4
232.0
247. 1
269.6
326.1
365.6

Federal debt ( end of period)

367.1
382.6
409. 5
437.3
468.4
486.2
544 1
631.9
646.4
709. 1
785.6

187.8
193.7
188.4
208.6
232.2
2649
281.0
299.2
81.7
356.9
400.5

non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.
Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, March 1978, Office of Management
and Budget,
a First Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, May 17, 1978.

32

Outlays

3.2

-2.8
-23.0
-23.4

NOTE.—See Note, p. 33.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,
except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 7 months of fiscal 1978 budget receipts were $16.7 billion higher than a year earlier and expenditures
were $27.7 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF POLLARS

100

100
H,M,,«....«««««««liMlillil111111

OTHER REC0PTS

400

400

OUTLAYS

**+

300

-

NOND^BMSE

^^****^

,..----

,--•'

^+*!*

300

>'*'

200

^_

,*——""*"""*

IPO
/I

v

I
1970 1971

200

1
1972

I
1973

1
1974

I
1975

-

1
I
1976 1977

FISCAL YEARS

I
1978

100

h
1979 ^

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
()utlays

Rece ipts
Nationa I defense
Period

Total

Indi- Corpovidual ration Other
income income
taxes
taxes

Fiscal year or period:
1969_ __
1970
1971
1972.
1973
1974
1975__
1976
Transition quarter _
1977
1978 (estimates) ll
1979 (estimates)

187.8
193.7
188.4
208.6
232.2
264.9
281.0
299.2
81.7
356.9
400.5
439.8

87.2
90.4
86.2
94.7
103.2
119.0
122.4
130.8
38.7
156.7
178.8
190. 1

36.7
32.8
26.8
32.2
36.2
38.6
40. 6
41.4

63.9
70.5
75.4
81.7
92.8
107. 4
118.0
127.0

54.9
58.9
62.5

Cumulative total first 7
months :
Fiscal year 1977
Fiscal year 1978___

195.0
211.7

87.0
95.3

28.7
31.5

8.5

Total

Interna- Health
and
In- Other
Depart- tional income
ment of affairs security terest
Defense,
military

145.2
162. 7
187.2

184.5
196.6
211.4
232.0
247. 1
269. 6
326. 1
365.6
94.7
401. 9
453.5
499.4

79.4
78.6
75.8
76.6
74.5
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
106.1
117.8

77.9
77.2
74.5
75.2
73.3
77.6
85.0
88.0
21. 9
95.7
103.8
115.2

79.3
85.0

232.0
259.7

56. 1
60.2

55. 1
58.8

345

1
Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, March 1978, Office of Management
and Budget.
NOTE.—Earned income credit payments in excess of an individual's tax liability
are classified as income tax refunds beginning 1976 and as outlays prior to 1976.




Total

4.7
4.0
5.6
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.8
7.2

49. 0
56. 1
70. 1
81.4
91.8
106.5
136.3
160.0
41.4
175.8
190.3
209.6

38. 1
42.9
49.0

35.7
39.3
41.8
48.8
53.9
51.7
66.5
76.0
21.5
85.7
108.4
115.8

1.3
2.8

102.2
109. 3

21.4
24.3

50.9
63.1

4.6
4.3

4. 1

15.8
18.3
19.6
20.6
22.8
28. 1
31.0
34.6
7.2

Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, Federal receipts rose $8.8 billion (annual rate) and expenditures
rose $4.6 billion, yielding a deficit of $55.7 billion, $4.3 billion less than in the fourth quarter of 1977.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
550

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

150

150

50

50

SURPLUS

DEFICIT

-50

-50

-100

-100

1970

1973

1972

1971

1974

1975

1977

1976

1978

CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal (jovernm ent receipts

Period

F(3deral G overnme nt expen ditures

Subsidies Less:
GrantsPurin-aid
Indirect Contriless
Wage
Personal Corporate business butions
chases Trans- to State Net
current accruals
tax
and
Total nontax profits tax and
for
Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less
tax
nontax social inand
ments local
paid Govern- disreceipts accruals
accruals surance
services
ment en- bursegovernments
terprises ments

Surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts

Fiscal year:
271.8
1974
283.6
1975
314. 1
1976
364. 0
1977
Calendar
year:
288.6
1974
286.9
1975.
332.3
1976
1977
._ 373.9
1976 : III. _ 337. 1
IV.__ 344.5
364.9
1977: I
II. __ 371.2
III.. 373.2
IV... 386. 3

122. 6
127.3
137.2
165. 5

43.7
42. 1
52.2
57.4

21.4
22. 1
24.2
246

84.2
92. 1
100.5
116.5

278.8
328.7
372.3
411.8

104.6
117.9
126.5
140.7

104.7
134.2
156.8
169.7

41.6
48.4
57.5
66.0

19.8
21.9
25.4
29.3

8.0
5.7
6. 1
6. 1

-0.2
-.4
.0
.0

-7.0
-45.0
-58,2
-47.8

131. 1
125.6
147.3
170.7
150. 3
157. 1
170.0
168.6
168.6
175.6

45.9
43. 1
55.9
59.4
56.9
55. 1
55.4
59.9
59.5
63.0

21.7
24.0
23.4
24.8
23.7
23.8
24.2
24.6
25.4
25.2

89.9
94.2
105.7
118.9
106.2
108.4
115.4
118. 1
119.7
122.5

299.3
357. 1
386.3
423.4
390.6
400.4
403.7
411.5
432. 1
446.3

111. 1
123.3
130. 1
145.4
130.2
134.2
136.3
143.6
148. 1
153.8

117.6
149. 1
162.0
173. 1
163. 9
166.3
170.7
169.3
174.8
177.4

43.9
54.6
61.0
67.5
63. 1
65.5
62.0
63.6
72.7
71.7

20.9
23.3
27.2
29.6
27.3
28.5
28.6
29. 1
29.4
31.5

5.3
6.7
5.9
7.8
6. 1
6.0
6.1
5.9
7.2
11.9

-.5
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

-10.7
-70.2
-54.0
-49.5
-53.5
-55.9
-38.8
-40.3
-58.9
-60.0

1978:1"... 395. 1

176. 1

59.5

26.0

133.5 450.9

152.7

180.1

74.7

33.9

9.5

.0

-55.7

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34



INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967=100]
IEidustria I produ ction (se asonally adjuste d)
Period

1971
1972
1973
1974__ _ _
1975
1976__
1977
1977: Aug___
Sept__Oct__.,
Nov.....
Dec
1978: Jan»__
Feb*Mar v*_
Apr

United CanStates ada

Japan

121.5
130.0
141.7
145.8
139.0
145.4
151.3
151.4
151.3
151.5
152.5
153.1
151.0
153.2
153.2

155.8
167.2
190.5
183. 1
163.9
182.0
189.5
190.8
190. 0
187.7
191.5
193. 3
194.9
195.4
198.7

109.6
119.7
129.8
129.3
117.8
129.8
137. 0
138. 1
138.5
138.9
139.3
139.7
138. 8
139.2
141.0
142. 5

GerFrance many

Italy

133.6
138.7
147.7
145. 1
137. 1
149. 1
152.7

117.5
122. 7
134.6
140.6
127.6
143.5
144.7
141. 6
145.4
138.5
140.8
136.7
143.4
148.0
146.4

128
135
145
148
139
149
152
151
154
149
155
149
155
155
159

152
153
152
153
156
159
152
148

Con sumer :>rices (u nad juste d)

United United CanKing- States1 ada
dom

121.3
125.3
133. 1
147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5
183.3
184.0
184.5
185.4
186. 1
187.2
188.4
189.8
191.5

110.6
113.2
122.5
120. 3
114.3
115.6
117.2
117.4
117.3
115.9
115.6
117.0
117. 6
118.6
118.3

GerJapan France many
126.5
132.3
147.9
184.0
205.8
224.9
243.0
243.0
247.3
248.6
245.7
245. 1
246. 1
247. 1
249.4

115.6
121.2
130.3
144.5
160. 1
172. 1
185.9
187.9
188.9
190.8
192.0
193.3
194.0
195.3
197.5
197.9

123.5
131. 1
140.7
160.0
178.9
196. 1
213.9
216.7
218.6
220.3
221. 1
221.7
222. 9
224.4
226.4

112.7
119. 0
127.2
136. 1
144.2
150.7
156.6
157.3
157. 1
157.3
157.5
157.9
158.9
159.7
160. 3
160.7

Italy

114.4
121.0
134. 1
159.7
186.8
218. 1
257.6
258.2
263.9
266.7
270.7
272.0
274.6
277.4
280.3
283. 3

United
Kingdom

128.5
137.6
150.3
174.4
216.5
252. 4
292.4
296. 7
298. 3
299.6
301. 0
302.6
304.4
306.2
308. 1
312.6

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau
of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic
Research, in International Economic Indicators.

* Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Mere biandise €kxports

Merc tiandise i mports
Gcmeral im ports

Domestic exports5
Period

Total
domestic and
foreign Total i 2
exports

Food, Crude
Food, Crude
Total
bever- mate- Manubever- mate- Manufac2
facrials
(c.i.f.
ages,
ages,
rials tured Total
tured
value) 4
and to- and
and to- and
goods
goods
fuels
bacco
bacco fuels

1974
1975
1976
1977
1977: Apr
May
June
July___
Aug. _
Sept___
Oct
Nov
Dec
1978: Jan__
Feb.___
Mar___
Apr

5,902
8,159

5,811
8,045

1,078
1,269

895
1,317

3,728
5,294

5,790
8,416

8,159
8,966
9,596
10, 098
9,953
10, 522
10, 092
10, 385
9,674
11, 037
9,375
9,475
11, 007
10, 014
9,922
10, 912
11, 635

8,045
8,842
9,456
9, 915

1,269
1,399
1,436
1,332
1,344
1,459
1,376
1,420
1,346
1,466
1,023
1, 135
1,472
1,281
1,531
1,604
1,693

1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,674
1,753
1, 612
1,653
1,296
1,531
1,466
1,500
1,493
1,402
1,282
1,483
1, 699 1

5,294
5,913
6,437
6,681
6,472
6,708
6,620
6,640
6,469
7,516
6,294
6,380
7,471
6,739
6,674
7,145
7,562

8,354
8,048
10, 084
12, 306
11, 798
11, 170
13, 334
12, 483
12, 101
12, 939
12, 583
12, 398
13, 474
12, 381
14, 440
13, 699
14, 496

1
Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program.
*1 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
* C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the
United States. Data for 1973 are estimates.




Mer ^handise trade
balance
ExExports
(f.a.s.) ports Exports
less
(f.a.s.) (f.a.s.)
less
imless
imports
imports
(cus- tfports\ (c.i.f.)
toms (f.a.s.)
value)

CustomLS value

F.a.s. valu e *

Monthly
average :
1973 _ _
1974

3

770
892
F.a.s.
892
827
991
1, 186
1,406
1,279
1, 193
1, 109
1, 066
1, 127
1,006
997
1,408
1,271
1,370
1,338
1,360

1, 120
2,653
value 5
2, 672
2,718
3,457
4,463
4,276
3,545
5, 192
4, 568
4,343
4,594
4,687
4, 794
3,885
3, 935
4,411
3,944
4, 389

3,750
4,684

6, 131
9,000

4, 602
4,257
5,398
6,379
6,034
6, 128
6,764
6,447
6,389
6,814
6, 613
6,270
7,476
7,314
8,511
8,065
8, 576

9,000
8,654
10, 825
13, 129
12, 577
11, 925
14, 233
13, 339
12, 897
13, 810
13, 428
13, 194
14, 369
13, 157
15, 381
14, 570
15, 436

112
-257

-195

-229
-841

—257 —195
—841
918
853
312
—581 —488 —1, 229
—2, 294 —2, 208 —3, 031
-1,927 - 1, 845 -2, 624
-648 -1,403
-756
-3, 355 -3, 243 -4, 141
-2, 132 -2, 098 -2,954
-2,475 -2,427 -3,223
-1,967 - 1, 903 -2, 774
-3,293 -3,209 -4, 053
-3,005 -2, 923 -3,719
-2, 973-2,467 -3,362
-2,455 -2,367 -3, 143
-4, 649-4, 518 -5,459
-2, 915 -2,787 -3, 658
-2, 983 -2,861 -3,801

s F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports
and at foreign port of exportation for imports.
Note. -Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Series revised beginning 1977.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The U.S. merchandise trade deficit rose from $9.9 billion in the fourth quarter to $11.2 billion tn the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

DOLLARS

-10

1970.

1977

1971

I

1978

COUNCIL OF iCONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]
Inv€jstment in come3

M erchandise 1 2

Period

Imports

Exports

1971
1972
1973.
1974
1975
1976
1977

Net

Kal
Ueil—

ance

Receipts

Payments

43, 319 -45, 579 -2, 260 9,512 -4,893
49, 381 -55, 797 -6,416 10, 161 -5,975
71, 410 -70,499
911 13, 540 -8,744
98, 306 - 103, 673 -5, 367 19, 763 -11,019
9,045 17, 330 -11,376
107, 088 -98,043
114,694 - 124, 014 -9,320 21, 369 -11,561
120, 472 -151,968 -31,496 24, 940 -13,005

1976: III_
IV. _

29, 603 -32,411 -2, 808
29, 711 -33,305 -3,594

1977: !___
II_.
III.
IV...

29, 475
30, 599
30, 973
29, 425

1978: !*__

30, 578 -41, 778 -11, 200

-36,968
-37, 434
-38,243
-39,323

1
Excludes military grants.
2
Adjusted from Census data
3

-7,493
-6,835
-7,270
-9, 898

5,483 -2,816
5,421 -2, 997
6,074
6,599
6,391
5,876

-2, 887
-3, 160
-3, 225
-3, 733

for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and
included in other services, net.

36



"NT
iN At
tJU

Net
military
transactions

Nettravel

and
transportation
receipts

Other
services,
net 3

4,619
4, 186
4,796
8,744
5,954
9,808
11, 935

-2,893
-3,621
-2,287
-2,083
-876
366
1,432

2,667
2,424

235
235

-458
-681

1,239
1,279

3, 187
3,439
3, 166
2, 143

514
309
559
50

-948
-778
-673
-696

1,278
1,324
1,518
1,436

-2, 315
-3,028
-3,086
-3, 105
-2, 552
-2, 145
-3, 095

Balance

on
goods
and
serv-l
ices

2,509
-340
2,789 -6,088
3, 185
3,520
3,970
2, 160
4, 594 16, 164
4,888
3,596
5,555 -15,414

Remittances,
pensions,
and
other
uni1
Q-f
P f«iJL
fll
Id
LCi

transfers 1

Balance
on
current
account

-3,701 -4, 041
-3,854 -9, 942
-3,887
-367
-7, 188 -5,028
-4, 612 11, 552
-5,023 -1,427
-4, 795 -20, 209

875 -1,936 -1,061
-337 -1,045 -1,382

-3, 118
-3,360
-2, 989
-5, 946

— 1, 163
-1,215
-1,334
-1,084

-4, 281
-4, 575
-4,323
-7, 030

NOTE.—Merchandise trade data are as revised for 1977 in April Economic
Indicators. Other data to be revised later.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Foreign official assets in the U.S. rose by $15.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 1977 largely reflecting exchange
market intervention by foreign central banks to slow appreciation of their currencies against the dollar.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
30 I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
130
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

20

2Q
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S., NET
\

10

f
-f-

A

10

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30
1969

1977

SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[incre ase/capita 1 outflow (-)]

Foreigni official
ass ets

Period
Total

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Foreign assets in the U. S., net
[inci-ease/capii ,al inflow ( + ) ] '

Other
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
official
private2
reserve Govern- assets
assets l 2 ment
assets

Total
Total

-9, 299
2,348 -1,884
9,763 22,
32 -1,568 -8, 392 21,
-9, 929
-14,666
209 -2, 645-12,230 17,
-27, 029 -1,434
365 25, 960 33,
-607 -3, 463 -27,478 14,
-31, 548
-42, 959 -2, 530 -4, 213 -36, 216 34,
-26, 059
— 231 -3, 666 22, 162 49,

445
127
753
612
336
520
261

26, 895
10, 705
6,299
10, 981
6, 960
17, 945
37, 419

1976 : III- _ _ -8, 409
IV.— - 14, 022

-407 -1,405 -6, 597 8,201
228 -1, 142 -13, 108 12, 079

3,070
6,977

331
1977:1
II
-10,283
I I I _ _ _ -4,423
IV- ._ -11,684

-388
-909
1,627
6
-825 -9, 464
151 -1,169 -3,405
-763 10, 921

2,510
13, 781
13, 920
19, 050

5,719
7, 908
8,249
15, 542

1978: I"
I

246

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and
the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Assets of Othei
foreign foreign
official
assets
reserve
agencies
27, 405 —4, 450
10, 322 10, 422
5, 145 11, 454
10, 257 22, 631
7, 376
5,259
13, 007 16, 575
11,
842
35, 545
1, 251
6, 125

5, 131
5, 102

5,007 -3, 209
7, 452
5,873
7,928
5,671
15, 158
3,508
14, 840

Statistical
discre pancy
Allocations
of
Total
special (sum of
drawing
the
rights
items
(SDR) with sign
reversed)

Of
which :
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

717 -9, 822
710 -1,966
-2, 720
-1, 555
5,660
9,866
-2, 993

12,
13,
14,
15,
16,
18,
19,

167
151
378
883
226
747
312

1, 268 -2, 622 18, 945
3,325
1,780 18, 747

1,440
652
1,077
-90
-5, 173 -2, 388
-337
1,826

19,
19,
18,
19,

120
156
988
312

19, 192

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.

37

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE,

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
375

DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS

WASHINGTON. D.C. 2O4O2
OFFICIAL BUSINESS

First-Class Mail

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

Pagc

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product. .
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders
;

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock
Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors
Consumer Instalment Credit
Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields.

*.

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

;

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