Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1949
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Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators MAY 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1949 90364 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist To the Members of Congress: As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators, from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee. Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information. Since nothing contained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public. Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July, provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Since such legislation is still under consideration, the Committee is continuing to issue the report on a monthly basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. u ss: - Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter o£ Transmitted Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material. Sincerely yours, j££<>*x^y^^^ 0 Vice Chairman. Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Employment in Business and Government Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures Weekly Production—Selected Indicators New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ IV Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 30 31 32 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET A general decline in economic activity during the 1st quarter resulted in about $6 billion (annual rate) decline in gross national product from the level of the 4th quarter. Consumer expenditures and business investment shared in the decline. 1948 , 4 t h Quarter TOTAL (Gross National EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS ( + ) (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Product) CONSUMERS •Transfer payments CONSUMER SAVING BUSINESS ZG. 8 EXCESS OF INVESTMENT I INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local) 56.4-^ CASH DEFICIT *"•— Transfer payments-^ 1949, TOTAL 1st Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) (Gross National Product) $&88&&8 sSSSoQOooc CONSUMERS Transfer payments - ;iiiij;!!jiiiiijiji;!;iii;ijii!iii!:ij;ji£^ Tj?y^ss-'$i^^ '£;.'::W:':z.y%%%zj,j>.tf,^ CONSUMER SAVING '78.o BUSINESS EXCESS OF. INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local) 57. 3 2/ 56.3 £/ TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR E X P E N D I T U R E S OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT. SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A , AND Jj ABOVE. CASH SURPLUS PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices rose slightly in March, thus reversing the trend of the previous 5 months. The rise in food prices accounted for roost of the increase. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 180 160 160 120 120 100 1941 1940 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1949 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39=100] Period All items 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average _ _ _ _ 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average _ _ _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: March ___ April May _ June Julv September October. _ November December 1949: January February _ March _ __ __ _ __ _ _ 99.4 100.2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 171. 2 166. 9 169. 3 170. 5 171. 7 173. 7 174. 5 174. 5 173. 6 172. 2 171. 4 170. 9 169. 0 169. 5 Food 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 193. 8 210. 2 202. 3 207. 9 210. 9 214. 1 216. 8 216 6 215. 2 211. 5 207. 5 205. 0 204. 8 199. 7 201. 6 NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Apparel 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124. 2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 198. 0 196. 3 196. 4 197. 5 196. 9 197. 1 199. 7 201. 0 201. 6 201. 4 200. 4 196. 5 195. 1 193. 9 Rent 104. 3 104. 6 106.2 108. 5 108. 0 108. 2 108. 3 108. 6 111. 2 117.4 116.3 116. 3 116. 7 117.0 117.3 117. 7 118. 5 118. 7 118. 8 119. 5 119. 7 119. 9 120. 1 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration House furnishings 99.0 99. 7 102.2 105. 4 107. 7 109. 8 110. 3 112.4 121. 1 133. 9 130.3 130. 7 131. 8 132. 6 134. 8 136. 8 137. 3 137. 8 137. 9 137.8 138.2 138. 8 138. 9 101.3 100. 5 107.3 122.2 125. 6 136.4 145. 8 159.2 184.4 195.8 194.9 194.7 193. 6 194. 8 195. 9 196. 3 198. 1 198. 8 198.7 198. 6 196. 5 195. 6 193. 8 Miscellaneous 100.7 101. 1 104.0 110.9 115. 8 121.3 124. 1 128.8 139. 9 149.9 146.2 147.8 147.5 147.5 150.8 152.4 152.7 153.7 153.9 154.0 154. 1 154. 1 154. 4 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices declined during April, primarily because of the fall in industrial prices. Farm and food prices showed little change during the month. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 220 120 100 1942 SOURCE: 1944 1943 1945 1948 DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R . [1926=100] All commodities Period 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June _ _1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: March April __ _ May June_ _ _ _ _ _ July August _ September October November December 1949: January February March Week ended: Apr. 5 12 __ .. . _ __ __ ___ _ _ __ _ _ 87 3 98. 8 121 1 112. 9 152. 1 165.0 161. 4 162. 8 163. 9 166. 2 168 7 169. 5 168. 7 165. 2 164. 0 162. 3 160. 6" 158 1 158. 4 Farm products 82 4 105. 9 148. 9 140. 1 181. 2 188. 3 186. 0 186. 7 189. 1 196. 0 195. 2 191.0 189. 9 183. 5 180. 8 177. 3 172. 5 168. 3 171. 3 Foods 82. 7 99. 6 130. 7 112. 9 168. 7 179. 1 173. 8 176. 7 177. 4 181. 4 188. 3 189. 5 186. 9 178. 2 174. 3 170. 2 165. 8 161. 5 162. 9 Other than farm products and foods 89. 0 95. 5 109. 5 105. 6 135. 2 150. 7 147. 7 148. 7 149. 1 149. 5 151. 1 153. 1 153. 3 153. 1 153. 5 153. 0 152. 9 151. 4 150. 8 164. 7 171. 5 149. 7 158. 0 164. 2 149. 4 171. 1 157. 6 163. 4 148. 4 171. 1 156. 9 19 162. 4 147. 9 169, 4 26 __ _ _ _ 156. 1 161. 8 147. 1 155.2 168.3 May 3 NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison. Source: Department of Labor. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Neither prices received nor prices paid by farmers showed much change from March 15 to April 15. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 19(0-14 AVERAGE 350 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES RECEIVED 300 300 250 250 PRICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST,TAXES) 200 200 150 150 100 PARITY R A T I O * 50 I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 I I M I I I I I I I I I I I 1947 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 1949 Prices paid by Prices (includ- Parity ratio 3 received 1 farmers ing interest2 by farmers and taxes) 95 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 287 124 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 249 1948: March April. _„ May June. July August September October November. December 283 291 289 295 301 293 290 277 271 268 247 249 250 251 251 251 250 249 247 248 1949: January February March April 268 258 261 260 248 245 246 246 1 i August 1909-July 1914=100. 100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, ancl taxes, Source: Department of Agriculture, 2 1910-14= 3 J F M A M J COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average M M ! F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 46 77 94 106 119 115 117 121 120 115 115 117 116 118 120 117 116 111 110 108 108 105 106 106 STOCK PRICES During April, industrial and utilities' stock prices registered further slight gains. PERCENT PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 175 125 100 1939 40 41 SOURCE •. S T A N D A R D 42 AND 43 POOR S 44 45 46 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J CORPORATION. A S O N COUNCIL D J F M A M J OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39 = 100] Combined index l Period 1939 monthly average _» 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average.. - _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average. 1948 monthly average 1948: March . . _> April Mav-June ' July August September __ _ _ October November December 1949: January February March April J.O, J _ - » - - 94. 2 80. 0 69.4 91. 9 99. 8 121. 5 139. 9 123.0 124.4 116.4 124. 6 130.2 135. 1 131.9 127. 1 125.7 127. 8 120. 4 119. 4 121. 0 117.2 118. 0 118. 5 Industrials 94. 8 80. 4 71.3 94. 1 101. 7 123. 3 143. 4 128. 0 130. 6 121.8 130.8 136.9 142. 7 138.9 133. 5 131. 7 134. 3 126. 4 125. 5 127. 3 122. 7 123. 7 124, 2 P^ailroads 74. 7 70. 6 66. 1 88. 7 101.0 136. 9 143. 0 105. 3 114. 8 105. 2 115.2 122.6 125. 6 124. 7 119. 7 120.4 120. 9 108. 8 105. 8 105. 9 99.6 97. 4 97. 1 Utilities 98. 6 81 0 61. 3 82. 1 89. 9 106. 1 120 2 102. 9 96. 3 93. 0 96.2 99. 2 100. 6 99.5 97 3 97.3 97. 4 94:2 92. 9 94. 2 94. 4 95. 3 96. 1 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE Unemployment dropped slightly in April for the second straight month. Nonagricultural employment declined and agricultural employment increased less than seasonally. M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 70 UNEMPLOYMENT 60 40 CIVILIAN — EMPLOYMENT 30 NONAGRICULTURAL _ UNEMPLOYMENT—MAGNIFIED SCALE E _ - 1946 1947 4 f-^^-___^^ ^•jv>xjy;\Yi^\^^^^^ ww$$£i--£^ 1944 ? 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1948 MONTHLY A V E R A G E COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Period Total labor force, including armed forces Civilian employment Total In nonagricultural industries In agriculture Armed forces Unemployment 1941 monthly average___ 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average... 1948 monthly average..- 57, 65, 65, 60, 61, 62, 380 890 140 820 608 748 50, 350 53, 960 52, 820 55, 250 58, 027 59, 378 41, 250 45, 010 44, 240 46, 930 49, 761 51, 405 9, 100 8, 950 8,580 8, 320 8, 266 7,973 1,470 11, 260 11, 280 3, 300 1,440 1, 307 5,560 670 1,040 2,270 2, 141 2,064 1948: March April May June July August September October November _. December 61, 005 61, 760 61, 660 64, 740 65,135 64, 511 63, 578 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 57, 329 58, 330 58, 660 61,296 61,615 61, 245 60, 312 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 50, 482 50, 883 50, 800 51, 899 52, 452 52, 801 51, 590 51,506 51, 932 52, 059 6,847 7,448 7,861 9,396 9, 163 8,444 8,723 8. 627 7,961 7,375 1,236 1,236 1,238 1,261 1,293 1,325 1,366 1,391 1,414 1,453 2,440 2, 193 1,761 2, 184 2,227 1,941 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 1949: January February _ _ March, April 61, 61, 62, 62, 57, 57, 57, 57, 50, 50, 50, 49, 6,763 6, 993 7,393 7,820 1,468 1, 508 1, 491 1,492 2,664 3, 221 3, 167 3,016 546 896 305 337 8 6 — 1939 10 414 168 647 819 651 174 254 999 NOTE.-—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 0 EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT Manufacturing employment, particularly in durable goods industries, declined again in March. Employment in other major industry groups changed slightly. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND S A L A R Y WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND S A L A R Y W O R K E R S 12 12 A 10 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING' FINANCE AND SERVICE GOVERNMENT TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC UTILITIES CONTRACT C O N S T R U C T I O N - V / ^"""-MINING' I 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 j 1946 1 I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1947 SOURCE: Deportment 1948 ' 1949 o f Laboi [Thousands of wage and salary workers J Durable manufacturing Period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly average _ _ _ _ average average average average. __ 1948: February March AprilMay June_ July August _ September October November December.. 1949: January 2 2 February March 2 , 1 _ „ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ __ _ - __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - . _ __ __ ___ _ _ _ Nondurable manufacturing Trade Finance and Government (Federal, service State, local) Transportation and public utilities Contract construction Mining 4, 357 10, 297 7, 180 8, 0,55 8, 214 5, 720 7,084 7,335 7,846 8,063 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 705 322 820 450 746 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 610 187 016 278 400 3,987 6, 049 5, 607 5, 450 5, 658 2,912 3, 619 4,023 4, 059 4, 065 1, 150 1,567 1,661 1,921 2,063 845 917 852 911 925 8, 167 8,258 8, 164 8, 114 8, 122 8, 165 8, 188 8,294 8, 318 8,303 8, 222 8,016 8,011 7, 786 7, 778 7,993 8,007 8,253 8, 403 8, 279 8, 158 8, 061 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10, 520 598 576 617 670 646 660 733 889 034 381 6, 420 6.426 6,472 6, 454 6, 389 6,399 6,383 6, 379 6, 364 6, 364 6, 346 5,492 5, 546 5, 577 5, 624 5, 607 5, 604 5, 650 5, 801 5,789 5, 714 5, 994 4,019 4,032 3,974 4,042 4, 105 4, 136 4, 139 4,092 4, 091 4,066 4, 066 1, 731 1,805 1,933 2,052 2, 173 2,219 2,253 2,239 2,206 2, 162 2,079 914 924 817 935 950 922 952 948 941 938 939 8,005 7, 891 7, 762 7, 885 7, 865 7,787 9, 625 9, 513 9,529 6, 257 6, 266 6,331 5, 761 5, 759 5, 762 3,977 3, 957 3, 938 1,906 1,824 1,824 924 922 915 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-ernployed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS The overage workweek in manufacturing industries fell to a postwar low of 38.9 hours in March, as further cutbacks were made in overtime. HOUR S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK RETAIL TRADE ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 50 50 MONTHLY MONTHLY A V E R A G E 45 45 40 /\ —i —*^~~\—*^r —\ r— * 40 ~" J 35 30 25 . \ 42 44 25 _ i i i i i t i i i .40 46 1 1 l i 1l 1l I 1 11 48 1947 1 1 1 l 11 I 1 1 l l 1 1111111111 1948 1949 0 1 1 40 1 1 42 1 1 44 1 1 1111 1 1 111 1 11 11 1 111 11 I I 1 46 48 1947 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 50 50 \ 45 /x. / ^ / 40 35 45 v s \ j ,. ifr ^v* 1 \l\^ 30 40 \ 35 11 25 '™T7. , , , , 40 42 44 46 48 0 1947 1948 ^ —*. /^- ^~" >/] ^ •S 30 25 0 ^ 35 30 0 AVERAGE _ ____^--_______ 4O 1949 1 1 1 111 11111 i i i i i i i i i 42 44 46 48 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1 i 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average. „. 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average . 1947 monthly average 2 1948 monthly average * 1948: February _ . . _. March April May__ June July August __ -_ September October _ „ ._ _ November December 2 1949: January 2 2 ._ . . .. . February _ _ 2 March http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 1 1 1 1949 [Hours per week, selected industries] 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 All manufacturing industries Retail trade 37. 7 40. 6 45. 2 43. 4 40. 4 40. 3 40. 1 40. 2 40. 4 40. 1 39. 9 40. 2 39.8 40. 1 39. 8 40. 0 39. 8 40. 0 39. 4 39. 4 38 9 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. Preliminary estimate. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Source: Department of Labor. 43.0 42. 5 40. 3 40. 3 40. 5 40.2 40. 1 40. 0 39. 8 39. 8 39. 9 40. 3 40.8 41.0 40.2 39.7 39. 5 40. 2 40. 0 40.0 Bituminous coal mining 27. 1 31. 1 43.4 42.3 41. 6 40.6 37. 7 38. 7 40. 6 3 27. 0 40.3 39.9 34.2 39.4 37. 9 38.6 37. 1 38. 5 39. 3 38.0 Building construction l 32. 6 34. 8 39. 6 39.0 38. 1 37.6 37. 3 36. 4 36. 9 36. 7 37.0 37. 9 37.8 37.8 37. 6 37.3 36. 4 37. 8 37. 0 36.4 WORK STOPPAGES The rise in man-days lost in March was caused chiefly by the coal miners1 "two-week holiday". Other minor disputes also contributed to the increase. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE I5 15 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 194 J F M A M J J 1947 A S O N D J F M A M J J A S D J F M A M J J A S O N D "COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Man-days idle (thousands) Period average average average average average. average average average l average 1948: February _ March _ __ April May _ June July August September October November, December 1 484 1 921 _ . 1949: January 1 February March l _ Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. _ _ 0 3 3 .1 727 .1 1 125 3 9 2 2 Man-days idle as percent of estimated available working time 349 169 667 883 842 913 1 1 N 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1942 monthly 1943 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 monthly O 1948 6 440 7 410 4 080 2 220 2 670 2 100 2, 540 2 060 1 910 713 800 650 3 600 2 5 1. 4 .4 4 1 .8 1 0 .6 .3 .4 .3 .3 .3 .3 .1 .1 .1 .5 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production was down about 3% in March as a result of lower output of nondurable manufactures and curtailed mining activities. Preliminary April data indicate declines in both durables and nondurables and some recovery in mining. 250 - 250 200 - 200 150 - 150 SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total =100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period 1935-39 monthly average. 1943 monthlv average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthlv average 1947 monthly average. 1948 monthly average 1948- March April __ __ May June July August September _ October November December _ _ _ _ 1949* January February March * __ April * Preliminary estimate. Manufactures Total industrial Nondura- Minerals production Total Durable ble goods goods _ - Manufactures Durable goods Nondura- Minerals ble goods 100 239 203 170 187 192 100 258 214 177 194 198 100 360 274 192 220 225 100 176 166 165 172 177 100 132 137 134 149 155 38 136 104 73 83 85 47 83 78 77 81 83 15 20 21 21 23 24 191 188 192 192 186 191 192 195 195 192 200 195 197 198 192 197 199 202 201 199 229 217 221 222 219 223 225 231 229 231- 177 177 178 179 169 177 178 179 178 173 142 147 162 159 153 159 156 158 161 156 87 82 84 84 83 84 85 87 87 87 83 83 83 84 79 82 83 84 83 81 22 22 25 24 23 24 24 24 25 24 191 189 184 179 198 196 193 186 227 226 223 216 175 173 168 161 149 148 133 143 86 86 84 82 82 81 80 75 23 22 20 22 - Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Iron and steel output reached a new all-time high in March. Lumber production also increased but machinery production dropped sharply. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE IRON AND STEEL LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 250 MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE 150 100 1 i i I I i I i i i 40 42 44- 46 48 40 1949 42 44 46 48 MACHINERY NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 250 200 I 0 * 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 40 42 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 44 46 48 1947 1948 100 1 I I t I I I I I 40 42 1949 44 46 48 SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M . COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] 1939 monthly 1940 monthly 1941 monthly 1942 monthly 1943 monthlv 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 monthly average average average average average average average average average average _ 1Q48* February March April June _ July August _ September October November December 1 _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ __ _ May 1949: January 1 Februarv March l _ __ _ ___ __ __ _ Preliminary estimate. _ _ _ Nonferrous metals and products Lumber and products Machinery 114 147 186 199 208 206 183 150 195 208 106 116 134 134 129 125 109 131 143 145 104 136 221 340 443 439 343 240 276 277 113 139 191 214 267 259 204 157 187 193 203 207 177 208 208 201 207 214 221 223 222 150 151 145 142 140 142 148 143 147 145 143 284 283 275 273 277 269 271 273 277 277 275 199 201 200 196 194 185 186 192 192 187 184 228 232 234 129 123 128 268 262 251 183 186 187 Iron and steel Period Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES D roduction of textiles and products, chiefly wool and rayon, decreased about 10% in Marchj industrial chemicals also declined. PERCEf IT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS 300 300 200 200 j~^ -^p~•N 100 0 100 i I i i' i i i i i 40 42 44 46 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 It 48 .1 II ! 1 1 1 ! ! I ! 1 1 1 1 l'l I 1 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 1948. 1947 0 s A/ J^ ^x^1 i i i i j 1 i t i 40 1949 K» 42 44 46 1 ! 1 I1 1 1 1 1 11 48 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS 1947 SEASONALLY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1948 1949 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS MONTHLY JL AVERAGE j\ ADJUSTED 300 300 ""* i.. X • •*—*> •*- • 200 200 0 1 1 1 II 400 400 100 ^ s~i i i i i t i i i 40 42 44 46 / 100 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1 1947 1948 1949 48 0 1 1 1 I I I 1 I I 40 42 44 46 48 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1948 1949 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period Textiles and products Manufactured food products Chemical products 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average . 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average _ 100 153 146 162 163 169 100 185 235 173 193 218 100 145 151 150 157 159 100 384 284 236 251 254 1948: February March April May June July . August September . October November _ December _ _ 179 175 174 176 174 154 166 168 167 164 156 215 211 213 220 221 217 222 207 217 227 230 160 158 157 159 163 160 154 163 161 159 158 252 250 249 249 256 251 259 257 255 257 257 1949: January ] February March 1 160 157 142 228 222 220 159 161 162 257 250 242 _ __ _ 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 12 Petroleum and coal products 1 1 1 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel production in April dropped just below the all-time peak rate reached in March while motor vehicles reached the highest rate since 1937. MILLIONS OF TONS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 3 7.0 STEEL ELECTRIC POWER 1949 1949 '1947 I F M I A M l I J A I S I I I 0 N F D MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS THOUSANDS 3.0 160 M A i M | J | J I A S O N A S 0 N 120 SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S Steel (thousands of net tons) Period Weekly average: 1947 1948 Week ended: 1948- Apr - 3 10 17 May 24 1 1949- Apr 2 9 - - __ __ 8 , _ May 30 7 _ 90, 860 100, 670 5, 037 5,033 5, 087 5,027 5, 042 5 087 355 413 _____ 1, 592 1, 521 1, 285 1,442 1, 561 1, 640 1, 306 1,952 2, 335 2, 122 99, 901 97, 311 99. 567 101, 661 97, 409 79, 785 - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5 378 5, 360 5, 343 5, 326 5, 304 1, 932 1,880 1, 908 1, 893 1,922 113, 784 126, 165 126, 521 134, 706 129, 457 121, 845 _ _ _ _ _ _- _-- -- - Cars and trucks (number) 2,008 1,906 16 23 Electric power, Bituminous coal by utilities (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) l 4, 821 5, 300 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1, 637 1, 700 - _ _- AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. 840 821 829 814 797 794 D 1 Daily average for week. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 1Q NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction activity continued its seasonal increase in April, reaching a total ot $1.4 billion. Public construction increased more than private, bringing the two categories back into more normal relationship. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,OOO 2,000 1,500 —. \I I 1939 1942 \ 1,000 \ 1944 1946 1947 M 1948 A M J J O N D J F M A 1948 M J J A S 1949 ^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR C O U N C I L OF E C O N O M I C ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: Februarv March April May__ j -- June July August September October November December 1949: January February March 2 ADH12 1 2 _ _ _ _ __ _ - _ _. _ _ - _ _ _ _ . _ _ 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1, 565 1,049 1, 226 1,378 1, 572 1,754 , 874 ,934 , 901 ,814 , 646 ,447 1,269 1, 148 1,248 1,368 Total private Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 688 932 1,214 875 1,001 1,099 1, 222 1,348 1,423 1,454 1,427 1,355 1, 256 1, 129 977 880 928 987 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 176 110 45 265 438 602 410 490 550 625 682 707 720 707 670 615 547 450 375 400 440 Other 141 141 107 422 493 612 465 511 549 597 666 716 734 720 685 641 582 527 505 528 547 Federal, State, and local 1 208 867 193 184 262 351 174 225 279 350 406 451 480 474 459 390 318 292 268 320 381 NEW HOUSING STARTS About 62,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in March. While this is 12,000 less than March 1948, it represents a normal seasonal increase from the lower level at which the year started. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 50 25 M A M SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units started Month 1947 January February _ _ _ March April _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ ____ May June July August September. _ October- _ November _ December. _ _ _ _ Total _ _ __ __„ _ _ _ __ _ Monthly average 1948 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 600 82, 200 73, 400 63, 600 52, 900 849, 000 931, 300 70,750 77, 600 1949 1 50, 000 1 46, 000 1 62, 000 1 Preliminary. Source: Department of Labor. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT SEC-Commerce survey made in January shows that nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in 2nd quarter of 1949 are expected to be slightly lower than in same quarter of 1948. It also shows that substantial declines in all fields except electric and gas utilities and mining are anticipated in 2nd half of this year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 ANN UAL TOTALS TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS I FUTILITIES 10 1939 * 1941 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 1945 VARIATION. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Millions of dollars, annual rates', not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total i Manufacturing Transportation Mining Railroad Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous 2 280 480 280 1939 1,850 1,930 380 5,200 340 1941 2,490 710 560 680 3,400 8, 190 320 1,480 630 550 1945 _ _ 3,210 440 6,630 3,300 1,040 570 660 1946 560 5,910 12, 040 800 1,900 910 4,430 1947. . _ _ 690 7,460 16, 180 700 2,680 1,320 5,390 1948 3 800 8,340 19, 230 3, 130 650 1,450 5,010 1949 _ __ 7,240 820 18, 310 1,320 720 1947: First quarter 3,600 640 5,800 600 12, 640 880 1,800 Second quarter. _ . 4, 120 920 7,400 640 15, 760 2,000 800 Third quarter 4, 640 920 720 7,480 16, 560 Fourth quarter _ _ , 2,480 760 5,360 1,200 840 9,160 19, 760 2,000 1,080 720 1948: First quarter _ _ 4,960 7,200 720 16, 680 1,240 760 Second quarter _ _ 2,560 800 5,360 8,560 19, 280 1,320 Third quarter 680 2,760 8,360 5,440 800 19, 320 3,400 680 Fourth quarter _ .. 1, 640 5, 760 880 9,280 21, 640 1949: First quarter 3 3 _ 2,880 640 1,560 5, 160 720 7,760 18, 720 Second quarter _ 3, 160 720 1, 640 5,440 760 7,440 19, 120 3 3,240 620 1, 300 Second half . __ 4,720 6,880 900 17, 700 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES Total proceeds from new corporate security issues fell heavily in the 1st quarter reflecting a decline in both fixed and working capital financing. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 3.0 3.O QUARTERLY AVERAGE 2.5 i 11 1939 SOURCE: 1943 SECURITIES 1946 1947 1948 COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 quarterly 1943 quarterly 1945 quarterly 1946 quarterly 1947 quarterly 1948 quarterly average average average average average 2 average 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter .. Second quarter.Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 2 1 2 _ _ _ _ _ __ _ Working capital 529 287 1,475 1,689 1,617 1,604 81 77 270 820 1, 148 1, 392 43 35 159 529 852 1,035 39 42 111 291 296 357 448 210 1, 206 869 469 212 1, 374 2,311 884 2,000 692 1,654 192 347 490 310 1,614 1,663 1,267 1,873 1,400 1,353 1,045 1,767 845 1,080 764 1,451 555 274 281 316 214 309 221 105 1,057 851 699 152 206 Includes small amount for other purposes. Preliminary (estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source; Securities and Exchange Commission. Plant and equipment Retirement of debt and stock * INVENTORIES AND SALES The book value of manufacturers' inventories showed the first sizeable decrease since the war, as sales rose seasonally. Department store sales on a seasonally adjusted basis declined again, though less rapidly than in January or February. BILL ONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHOLESALE RETAIL 20 20 MONTHLY sEASONALLY ADJUSTED AVERAGE INVEI^ T()RIES y _\ j?° /r 1 0 1 0 L ES i i i i i i i i i 40 42 '^y\t '' i Ii li1lliii 44 46 48 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1t I 1i 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 L i i i | | i | | i 0 40 1949 BILL IONS OF DOLLARS 42 44 46 1 1 1 II ! M I 1 1 1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1 1947 1948 48 1 I 1 1949 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INVEf JT 30 DRIES \ ). ......I y 1 /y- ^LE:sv 300 .--vr^-s^ Jy—Vr- w \ ,v X //INVEt^ TC)RIES ,/7x / s/ / 200 V ^~ L IS iiiiiiiii 0 40 42 44 46 ,M l . l l l , , , 48 {&* 1 00 l . . I l l . . 1 II 1947 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1948 1 0 1 40 1949 1 1 1 1 1 42 44 I 46 1 48 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 50URCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Wholesale 1 Period Inventories 8 Retail 2 Sales 4 Inventories 3 Manufacturing * Sales 4 1939 1941 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948 1948- March . April Mav«June July. August September _ October c . . November T)p,r,fvrr\bfir _ . . _ _ _ . _ 6 1949 1 January 6 6 February March 6 _ 3,200 4, 151 3,577 4,216 5,823 7,545 8,315 7,869 7,777 7,801 7,953 7,930 8, 100 8,243 8,400 8,507 8,315 8,527 8,567 8,453 5,502 7,620 7, 350 7,502 11,049 12, 953 14, 556 14, 040 13, 907 13, 951 14, 065 14, 080 14, 145 14, 531 14, 576 14, 779 14, 556 14, 085 13, 934 14, 049 3,504 4,624 5,310 6,387 8, 399 9,860 10, 784 10, 658 10, 891 10, 620 10, 862 10, 857 10, 893 10, 968 10, 894 10, 771 11, 062 10, 615 10, 588 10, 608 1949 Inventories 3 Sales Department stores 4 Inventories Sales 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 6 11,516 17, 024 19, 897 17, 924 23, 435 28, 020 31, 766 29, 064 29, 161 29, 437 29, 727 30, 236 30, 429 30, 710 30, 848 31,225 31, 766 31, 998 32, 065 31, 700 5, 112 8, 172 12, 603 12, 371 12, 020 15, 671 17, 593 18, 117 17, 229 16, 777 17, 871 16, 403 18, 169 18, 781 18, 807 17, 987 18, 195 16, 859 16, 427 17, 700 102 131 155 166 213 255 292 312 308 297 285 275 268 275 283 303 305 285 286 293 106 133 168 207 264 286 302 284 306 311 312 316 312 312 306 287 310 287 274 270 5 Book value, end of period. Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for Monthly average for year and total month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. 1 for month. Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Not adjusted for seasonal variation. Adjusted for seasonal variation. 3 4 2, 505 3,650 4,330 4,777 6, 138 7,304 7,867 7,726 7,652 7,389 7,766 7,796 8,161 8,286 8,376 8,242 8, 196 7, 163 6,802 7,483 1 1 11 1 1 11 t 11 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 II DEPARTMENT STORES 40 1 0 II PERCE IT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE MANUFACTURING 20 •"" > —. INVEf T( JRIES jjj^*-*^....-^ 0 y SX* ixT"-*** ...., 7 •' s MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Both exports and imports increased about 12 percent in March, exceeding average 1948 levels. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1600 1,400 - - 1,200 1,400 1,200 1,000 - - 1,000 800 800 - 600 600 - 400 400 ~ 200 200 - J 1943 1936-38 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1949 * RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS. ** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Period Exports 1 Imports * Excess of exports 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 247 1 080 877 849 1 278 1, 051 207 282 346 410 478 589 40 798 531 439 801 461 1948: January February _ March— April May~. June July, August — September October November December. . 1,092 1, 086 1, 138 1, 120 1, 102 1, 014 1,020 986 926 1, 020 819 1, 284 545 582 666 528 549 616 558 598 558 597 550 721 546 504 473 592 553 398 461 387 368 423 269 563 1 086 1 029 1 152 589 568 632 497 461 520 1949: Januarv _ „_ February March _______ -__ _ 1 1 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Souroeg: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 19 PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income declined in the 1st quarter of 1949 but was still above the rates for the first three quarters of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 200 150 100. 1939 1944 1946 1947- 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted). [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947__ 1948 l _ ___ 72. 5 182.4 181.7 179.3 202. 5 224.9 _ _ _ Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' and rental income Net interest 47. 8 121. 1 122. 9 117. 3 127. 5 139. 4 14.7 34. 1 36.0 41.8 46.0 50. 9 4.2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 4.3 4. 9 Total 5.8 24.0 19. 8 16. 8 24. 7 29.8 Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24.3 20.4 21. 8 29.8 32.8 -0.7 -.3 -.6 -5.0 -5. 1 -3.0 29. 1 32.4 30.5 32. 1 34.0 2 ( ) 34. 4 29. 6 -4.8 -4. 9 -5.3 -2.5 -3.9 -.4 4-2.0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter _ 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter, Fourth quarter * 1949: First Quarter 2 _ _ 1 2 _ _____ 200.6 212.8 213. 9 222. 3 228. 2 2 ( ) 235.3 229.0 127. 6 132.2 134.0 136.3 142.4 144. 7 142. 5 44.4 48.6 49. 9 51.6 50. 6 51.4 49.6 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 4. 4 4.5 4. 7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 24. 3 27. 5 25.3 29.6 30.2 2 ( ) 34.0 31. 6 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits dropped in the 1st quarter of 1949, reflecting a decline in sales and prices. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PROFITS BEFORE TAXES" DIVIDEND PAYMENTSXX#:* PROFITS > AFTER TAXES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929. . 1939 1943 1946 1947 . 1948 _— . . . _. 9.8 6. 5 24.5 21.8 29.8 32.2 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 14.2 9.0 11.7 12.5 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.4 12.8 18.1 19.7 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4.5 5.6 6.9 7.8 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 5.9 7.2 11.2 11.9 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter - •__ __ 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1. _ _ _ _. _ 1949: First quarter l 29. 1 32.4 11.4 12.7 17.7 19.7 6.9 7.1 10.8 12.6 30. 5 32. 1 34.0 34. 4 29. 6 11. 8 12.5 13.3 13. 6 11,8 18. 7 19.6 20. 8 20. 8 17.8 7.4 7.4 7.7 8. 3 8.7 11.3 12.2 13. 1 12. 5 9. 1 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 20 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 21 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income dropped in February as a result of decreased employment and lower farm income. March data indicate that income from salaries and wages dropped again. Preliminary BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2 00 PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME I 50 SAL ARIES, WAGES, ETC. I 939 J F . M 946 1947 1948 944 A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M I J I J ! A 1 ! I S O N D TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 _« _ . . _ _ __ 72. 6 164. 5 170.3 178. 1 195. 2 213. 6 Salaries, wages, and other labor income Proprietors' and rental income Dividends and interest 45.7 116. 1 116.8 111. 4 121.9 134. 3 14. 7 34. 1 36.0 41.8 46. 0 50. 9 9.2 10.6 11.4 13.5 15. 6 17.2 Social security and GI payments 3.0 3. 6 6.2 11.4 11.7 11. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: January February. _ _ March April May June__ _ _ _ _ July August-September October _ November December 1949; January.. February .__ _ March l http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 9.9. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 _ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ 208. 8 206. 4 205.7 208. 6 209. 2 214. 4 214. 8 216. 7 217. 3 218. 5 219. 9 221. 0 219. 2 216.3 214. 3 129. 3 128. 8 128. 5 128. 8 131.0 133. 4 135. 5 138.0 138. 8 139. 6 140. 1 139. 8 138.4 136. 8 134. 5 51.8 49. 6 48. 4 51. 2 50.4 53. 0 51.2 50. 3 50.4 50. 7 51.4 52. 1 51.4 49.7 49.0 Preliminary estimates. Data became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 16. 5 16. 6 16. 6 16.7 16.8 16. 9 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18. 1 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.3 11.2 11.4 12.2 11.9 11.0 11. 1 11. 1 11. 1 10. 6 10. 4 10. 3 10.7 11. 1 11.5 12.5 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING In the 1st quarter of 1949, consumer spending declined for the first time since the war period. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 150 * PERSONAL II COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Billions of dollars] Disposable personal income l Period 1939 1940. 1941_ 1942 1943_._ 1944... 1945 1946... 1947 1948 __ _ ._ . _ ._ . 70.2 75. 7 92.0 116.2 131. 6 145.6 149. 4 159.2 173.6 192. 6 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90. 8 101. 6 111.4 122. 8 147.4 164.8 177. 7 2.7 3. 7 9.8 25. 4 30.0 34.2 26.6 11.8 8.8 14. 9 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter. _ 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 2 _ _ 1 2 _____ ____ _ 175.0 180.9 165.6 171. 1 9.4 9.7 183. 9 190. 2 196.2 199.4 172. 5 177. 3 180. 1 181.0 11.4 12. 9 16. 1 18.4 198.0 178.0 20.0 Income less taxes. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). PER CAPITA INCOME' A decrease in prices during the 1st quarter of 1949 more than offset the decrease in per capita income. This resulted in a small increase in the real purchasing power of consumers. 400 1939 ** 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 2 1948 2 3 1948 3 1947 2 3 1949 CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948 *IOO. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED). Per capita disposable personal income * Period Current dollars $536 574 691 863 964 1,054 1,070 1, 127 1,205 1,313 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944_ 1945 1946 1947 1948 1948 dollars 8 $923 981 , 125 ,256 ,306 ,391 ,374 ,351 ,294 1,313 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted • 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter. 1948: First quarter _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 4 _ 1 2 . „ _. _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ __ $1,212 1,246 1,263 1,286 1,318 1,351 1,336 $1, 291 1,291 1,289 1, 291 1,295 1,342 1,347 Consumers' price index8 1948 = 100 58. 1 58.5 61.4 68.7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93. 1 100.0 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 93.9 96.5 98.0 99. 6 101.8 100. 7 99.2 Income less taxes. Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted). 3 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries continued to drop in March, and were about 1 cent below the postwar peak reached in January. DOLL ARS PER HOUR . DOLLARS PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 2.00 MONTHLY 1.50 1. 00 2.00 AVERAGE 1.50 1948 (DO LLARS* — ** <2r •Mi 1948 C )0 _LARS* i ^^ X^ .50 ,50 nTTTTTTTTI rTTTTfTmT H I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iTTTtTT 40 42 44 46 48 1947 1948 0 ^ i' i i i i i i i n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 40 1949 42 44 46 1948/f )0 Vl rf~ 2.00 •«• X**"1 x"»**^.IC^A 1948 1949 ^CZ******" ,-^J ~^ L ~r -* 1.50 S^ CURF EhJT DOLLARS . 1.00 -S .50 .50 0 ~TTTTTTTT~P 40 X 1947 1948 D OL LARS* J CUF !R ENT DOLLARS 1. 00 48 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 2.OO 1.50 *• REINT DOLLARS Cuf ^S 0 !••• m p 1.00 CURRE NT DOLLARS 42 44 46 1 1 1 1 1 48 1 I11 1 i 1I11 1947 11 Ml 1 1 M 1 ! ! 1 ! ! 1 1948 0 1 I 1 1 40 1949 1 | ) | 42 44 46 j 1 1 ! 1 1 11 1 ! 1 1 48 INN 1947 MM! Mill 1948 M II 1949 CUFi COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOUR(;E: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 1941 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 Current dollars monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average 3 monthly average 1948* February March -« April May June July _ August September _ _ October November _ _ December ^ 1949" January 3 3 February March 3 ._ _ _ ; _ __ _._ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1 2 3 4 1948 dollars 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 $0. 633 .729 1.019 1.023 1.084 1. 221 1.327 $1. 090 1. 187 1.381 1.313 1.230 1.311 1.327 $0. 536 .568 .724 .773 .878 .991 1.067 $0, 923 .925 .981 .992 1.053 1.064 1.067 1.287 1.289 1.292 1.301 1.316 1. 332 1.349 1.362 1. 366 1.372 1.376 1.316 1.322 1. 306 1.306 1. 312 1.312 1. 324 1.337 1.347 1.364 1. 375 1.050 1.044 1.055 1.064 1.070 1.077 1.080 1.086 1.080 1.084 1.072 1.074 1.071 1.067 1.068 1.067 1. 061 1.060 1.066 1.065 1.078 1. 071 1. 381 1. 377 1. 372 1. 384 1. 395 1. 386 1. 110 1. 104 1. 112 1. 119 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100. Preliminary estimate. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Digitized forSource: FRASER Department of Labor. Bituminous coal mining Retail trade Current dollars $0. 886 .993 1. 186 1.240 1.401 1. 633 1.897 4 1.826 1.842 1. 821 1. 841 1.850 1. 936 1.967 1.970 1.959 1. 951 1.960 1. 949 1. 964 1948 dollars 2 Building construction l Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 $1. 525 1. 617 1.607 1.592 1. 680 1. 754 1.897 $0. 932 1.010 1.319 1. 379 1.478 1.681 1.848 $1. 604 1. 645 1.787 1.770 1.772 1. 806 1.848 1.867 1.889 1. 841 1.848 1. 844 1.907 1. 930 1.933 1. 932 1.939 1. 958 1.791 1.786 1.804 1.815 1.836 1.862 1.874 1.895 1.892 1.906 1.915 1.831 1.832 1.824 1.822 1. 830 1.834 1.839 1.860 1.866 1.895 1.913 1. 953 1. 990 1. 920 1. 934 1.924 1. 959 4 See note 3 to table on page 24. 25 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS I The combination of shorter hours and lower hourly earnings reduced average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries in March to $ 5 3 . 3 7 - $1.64 below the all-time peak of last December. DOL _ A R S PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK ^ 60 / 40 RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 60 \I948 C0 LLARS** / %.-^~^~*-~^ -''' r* *m\m~**r~~ «•»•» 1948 D 0 .LARS** CURREN" " CJOLLARS / \^^ 40 +*--++* ^•^^CURREN' • [)OLLARS 20 20 p* • 0 , , , , , , , , , 40 42 44 46 Miii1i ii ii 48 1 M 1947 M 1 1 M I M 1 1 1948 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 0 I i 40 1949 i i i 42 44 i i i | 46 100 1948 D J .LARS** 01 -i.,;^vy"v ,-'V\ J /CURREN 0 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1949 80 1948 D 01.LARS** 60 ^f^^***"*^ /^/ ^--^ ^^^"^ ' / ""X / CURREN" r )OLLARS «• t I)OLLARS 40 40 20 I 1 1 1 1 MONTHLY AVERAGE *« f 7 y- 60 1 1 1 1 1 1947 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 100 80 Mill 48 s S 20 i i i i i i i i i 40 42 44 46 1 M 48 1 1 1M 1 II 1 1 M 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1948 0 II 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 * EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATIONS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. i i i | i t i i i 40 1949 42 * * C URRENT DOLLAF s DIVIDED ABLE. 44 46 M I 1 1 1 , M I. 48 1 1 II 1 1 I 1 M 1947 1 1 I M 1948 1 i M 1 1 1 1949 er CONSUMERS' PRICE NDEX ON BASE OF 1948=100 [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Retail trade Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 Bituminous coal mining Current dollars $21. 17 $36. 44 $23. 88 $41. 07 $23, 86 1939 monthly average 30.86 21.94 35.73 48. 18 29. 58 1941 monthly average. _ 36.02 51.27 62.44 26. 58 46.08 1944 monthly average 36.34 52. 25 28. 31 56.98 44. 39 1945 monthly average __ 39.03 58.03 32. 55 43.74 52. 45 1946 monthly average _ 66.86 39. 39 36. 67 49.25 52. 90 1947 monthly average 3 39.83 72.06 39. 83 53. 15 53. 15 1948 monthly average __ __ 70. 54 38.33 39. 19 51.75 52.91 1948: February _ __ 74.84 39.89 53.41 38.89 52.07 March 4 49. 5339.71 39.27 52.37 51.79 April _____ _ 40.00 74.08 39. 84 52.07 51. 86 iVJ.O,J Mav 73. 87 40.40 40. 52 52. 69 52.85 June _ -67. 62 40.58 41. 19 52.95 52. 17 July 41. 19 40. 42 78. 10 53.04 54.05 August 39.73 75. 52 40. 48 53. 17 54. 18 September 76.40 39.76 40. 32 53. 90 54. 65 October ___ 39.43 73.52 54.56 54. 23 39. 67 November 3 40.62 75. 79 40.58 54.96 55.03 December 76.84 41. 87 41. 79 54.41 . 54.52 1949* January 3 3 42. 11 75. 65 41. 56 54. 96 54. 25 Februarv 3 53. 37 53. 91 March _ _ _ _ _ 1 Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data. 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24. 3 Preliminary estimate. 4 Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Department of Labor. Digitized forSource: FRASER 26 1948 dollars 2 $41. 10 50.26 69. 47 67.07 69. 58 71.81 72.06 72. 13 76. 76 4 50. 08 74.38 73. 65 66. 62 76. 64 74. 11 75.34 73.08 75.71 76.99 76. 65 Building construction 1 Current dollars $30. 39 35. 14 52. 18 53.73 56. 24 63.30 68. 85 65. 16 65.87 66.45 67.22 69. 53 70.47 70.91 71.29 70. 59 69.39 72.33 70.96 70. 38 1948 dollars 2 $52. 31 57.23 70. 70 68.97 67.43 67.99 68.85 66.63 67. 56 67. 19 67. 49 69.32 69.43 69.59 69.96 69.62 68. 98 72.26 71. 10 71. 31 FARM INCOME Cosh farm income increased seasonally in March, and was about equal to that in March 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 0 I I 1939 I 40 I I 41 42 I 43 I 44 I 45 I 46 I 47 I I 48 I I J I F M I A I M I J I J I A I S I O I N I D I J I F I M I A I M •1947 I J I J I A I S I O I N I D I J _ _ I A I M I J I J I A I S I O I N D 1949 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Farm income (millions of current dollars) l Period ivj.a,j Mav I M 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1948: February __ March April _ _ __ I F _ _ _ _ _ __ _ ____ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ June _ _ _ _ _ _ July August _____ September October __ _ November December _ 1949: January 4 4 _ _ _ _ _ February _ 4 March _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 723 981 1, 340 ], 678 1, 753 1, 857 2, 136 2, 542 2, 609 1, 862 1, 932 2,075 2, 119 2,437 2, 693 2, 722 3, 132 3,714 3, 314 2,740 2,383 1, 783 1, 940 Prices paid by farmers (incl. Farm income interest and (millions of taxes) 1948 = 1948 dollars) 3 100 2 49. 8 53 0 60. 2 65. 1 67. 9 69. 1 77. 5 92. 8 100. 0 99. 6 99. 2 100. 0 100. 4 100. 8 100. 8 100. 8 100. 4 100. 0 99. 2 99. 6 99. 6 98.4 98. 8 1, 452 1 851 2, 226 2, 578 2, 582 2, 687 2, 756 2, 739 2, 609 1, 869 1, 948 2,075 2, 111 2,418 2, 672 2, 700 3, 120 3,714 3, 341 2,751 2,393 1,812 1, 964 1 2 3 4 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100. Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES The decrease in expenditures for nondurable goods more than accounted for the drop in total consumption expenditures in the 1st quarter of 1949. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 150 100 ^ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS; BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S COMMERCE ( E X C E P T A S N O T E D ) . - [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 19451946 1947_ 1948 67.5 111.4 122.8 147.4 164. 8 177. 7 35.3 67.5 75.4 87.5 96.5 103. 6 Durable goods 6.7 6.9 8.3 16.2 21.0 22. 7 Services 25.5 37.0 39.2 43.6 47.3 51.4 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: Third quarter Fourth quarter ._ 1948: First quarter Second quarter., Third quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter *_ __ 1 28 _ -__ __ __ 165. 6 171. 1 96.8 100.2 21.1 22.1 47.7 48.8 172. 5 177.3 180. 1 181.0 101.4 103.7 104. 3 105. 1 21.3 22. 8 23. 7 22. 9 49.8 50.8 52. 1 53.0 178.0 102.0 22. 5 53. 5 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit increased $43 million in March. Some expansion in instalment credit (loan and automobile sale) was offset in part by small declines in charge accounts and other consumer credit. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2 0 20 I8 1943 1946 M 1947 J J A S 1948 END OF MONTH 1947 END OF YEAR SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM. [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 _ _ __ -_ _ __ _ _ __--- _ _ 1948' February March April May _ June July August _ September October November December 1949* January February March 2 1 2 2 _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit arid loans Other consumer credit l 7,969 5, 378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8,600 1, 267 175 544 1, 151 1, 961 3, 157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6, 639 1, 544 1, 498 3, 054 3, 612 3,854 2,001 1,879 3, 137 3, 627 3,865 13, 302 13, 805 14, 059 14,311 14, 669 14, 723 14, 916 15, 231 15, 518 15, 739 16, 319 6, 548 6, 821 7,094 7, 318 7,533 7,738 7,972 8, 190 8,233 8, 322 8,600 1, 254 1, 367 1,468 1, 536 1,602 1,689 1,781 1, 858 1,889 1, 922 1, 961 5, 294 5,454 5,626 5, 782 5,931 6, 049 6, 191 6, 332 6, 344 6,400 6, 639 3,061 3, 275 3,236 3,245 3,352 3, 185 3, 130 3,227 3,457 3, 557 3,854 3, 693 3, 709 3,729 3,748 3,784 3,800 3, 814 3,814 3,828 3, 860 3,865 15, 749 15, 336 15, 379 8,425 8, 340 8,447 1, 965 1, 996 2, 113 6, 460 6,344 6,334 3,457 3, 176 3, 141 3, 867 3,820 3, 791 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Charge accounts MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS After o contraction in January and February, bank loans increased in March. ONS OF D O L L A R S 125 - 125 100 __ - 100 INVESTMENT U. S. GOVERNMENT IN SECURITIES 75 - 50 - 1 25 - W" XXx* 1929 END 1939 if - I 1945 1948 OF YEAR 1949 END OF MONTH PR EL I Ml NARY £5 TIM A TE SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal R e s e r v e S y s t e m [Billions of dollars] TP *-./-! f^t -r^^^^A ii<ii a of period 1929 1939 1945_ „ _ 1946 1947 _ __ 1948 1948: February . March ApriL _ _ _ M<*J Mav ^ June __ July August September October November December 1949: January February March l _ _ _ _ _ -__ _ __ _ __ ___ _ ___ _ - _ Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 49. 5 40. 7 124. 0 114, 0 116. 4 114. 3 115. 5 113. 6 114. 3 114. 5 113. 9 114. 8 115. 1 113. 6 114. 1 114. 2 114. 3 114. 4 113. 4 112.4 36. 0 17.2 26. 1 31. 1 38. 1 42. 7 38.7 38.9 38.8 39.4 39.9 40. 1 40.6 41.7 41. 6 42.3 42. 7 42. 4 42. 0 42. 3 Total _ __ Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1 13.5 23. 4 97.9 82.9 78.3 71.6 76.9 74.7 75.5 75. 1 74.0 74.6 74.5 71.9 72. 5 71.9 71. 6 72.0 71. 4 70. 1 U.S. Government securities 4.8 16. 3 90.6 74.8 69.3 62. 5 67.9 65. 5 66.3 65.9 64.8 65.3 65. 1 62.5 63.3 62.8 62. 5 63.0 62. 2 60. 9 Other securities 8. 7 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9.0 9. 1 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 9.1 9. 1 9. 1 9. 1 9. 2 MONEY SUPPLY Money supply declined again in March by about $2 billion, chiefly as a result of reduced demand deposits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 200 200 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY ( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS) I 50 TIME DEPOSITS liADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS: CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS * B 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 J F M A M END OF YEAR J J A S O N D J F M A "9^7 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE M J J " A S O N D J F M 1948 END OF MONTH A M J J A S O N D 1949 SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1929 1939 .. 1941 1943 1945 . _ . 1946 1947 __ . _ 19481948: February March. . April May June . July. . . . . _ - _ August September October November December 1949: January February _ _ __ March 3 _ __ . ... ... - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ ._ _ . .. -. _ _ _ 54.6 63.3 76.3 112. 3 150. 9 164.0 170. 0 168. 7 167. 1 164.0 165.0 165. 2 165. 7 166.2 166.7 166. 9 168.0 167. 9 168.7 168.0 166. 1 164.0 Currency outside banks 3. 6 6.4 9.6 18.8 26. 5 26.7 26. 5 25. 7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.4 25. 6 25.5 25. 6 25.7 25.7 25. 9 25. 7 25. 2 25. 1 25.0 Adjusted demand deposits l 22. 8 29. 8 39. 0 60. 8 75. 9 83.3 87. 1 85. 8 84.6 81.5 82.7 82.8 82. 7 83.4 83.8 83. 9 85.0 85.0 85. 8 85.3 83. 3 81.0 Time deposits 2 28. 2 27. 1 27. 7 32.7 48. 5 54.0 56. 4 57.3 56. 8 56.9 56. 9 57.0 57.4 57.3 57. 3 57. 3 57. 3 57. 0 57. 3 57.6 57. 7 58.0 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. 8 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash surplus of about $3 billion during the first quarter, which includes the seasonally high March tax receipts, was less than half as great as during the same quarter of 1948. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I6 16 1947 1946 1949 1948 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS LJ 1:1 EXCESS OF CA'SH 1946 1947 1948 CALENDAR PREL. 1949 EST. YEARS C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Calendar year total: 1946 1947 1948 _ - _ Federal cash payments to the public 1 41, 426 44, 279 44, 920 41, 372 38, 584 36, 954 + 54 + 5,695 + 7,967 12, 9, 9, 9, 632 462 702 630 12, 244 12, 008 8,449 8, 671 + 388 — 2 547 + 1 252 + 959 ___ _ _ _ 14, 9, 10, 9, 345 847 220 869 9, 163 10, 628 10, 257 8 536 + 5 182 — 781 — 37 + 1 331 _ _ _ _ _ 15, 10, 10, 9, 037 238 085 560 8 637 9,033 8, 798 10, 486 + 6 400 + 1 205 + 1 287 — 925 _ _ _ _ _ - Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 1946: First quarter _ _ . _ _ _ - -_Second quarter Third quarter _ __ _ _ _ _ __ Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948- First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter. _ __ _ _ _ __ ___ _ _ Excess of receipts ( + ) or payments (— ) Federal cash receipts from the public 1 Calendar years _ _ _ _ 2 1949: First Quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ 9,931 13, 122 + 3. 191 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures. 2 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.,—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 1 o For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. O.