Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1948
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80th Congress, 2d Session
Joint Committee Print
Economic Indicators
MAY 1948
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council
of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on
the Economic Report
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1948
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Viet Chairman
JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHOISIEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN^ Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
This need could not be met merely by turning to the
many statistical reports compiled by the various executive agencies. Most of these were too detailed or not
sufficiently graphic. None was adequate in presenting
the salient statistics for the various segments of the
economy.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this, material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to wade through voluminous and specialized Government documents. In
addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations
and representatives of the press and radio have indicated
their desire for this information. Since nothing contained in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature
they have urged that the material be made available to
the general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has decided to
provide Congress and the public with a limited number
of copies of Economic Indicators for May 1948. If the
report receives a favorable reaction from the members of
Congress it will be continued on a monthly basis.
Any comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will be appreciated.
Vice-Chairman
Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
11
Letter of Transmitted
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
,by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
EDWIN G. NOURSE, Chairman.
LEON H. KEYSERLING, Vice Chairman.
JOHN D. CLARK.
Contents
Section A: THE NATION'S E C O N O M I C
BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Section B: PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
..
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
Section C: EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force. . .
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
..
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures . . . .
Production of Selected Nondurable, Manufactures .
New Construction..
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY—Continued
Inventories and Sales
17
Exports and Imports
18
Section E: PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
,.
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income. . .
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Average Family Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Money Supply
30
Bank Loans and Investments
31
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the
Public..........
32
Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Preliminary estimates of the Nation's Economic Budget for the first quarter of 1948 indicate that the total increased
6 percent above the level of 1947. Consumers'expenditures increased 6 percent, business outlays 19 percent, while net
exports and government expenditures dropped.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
50
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC
BUDGET TOTAL*
250
-
(Gross National Product)
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES
25
200
200
1948
1947
1946
lttQr«»
INTERNATIONAL
150
ISO
25
NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT
194?
1946
1948
1st Or
100
100
25
1946
1947
1946
1946
1948
* 1st Or**
* $ROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT tS NOT EXAGTLT
THE SUM Of THE COMPONENTS BECAUSE Of CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS.
ft ft SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL HATES
ft*« RAN6E Of ESTIMATES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SEASONAL f ACTOR FOR THE FIRST QUARTER
OEfWTTMFNT OF (XMKM £*GE AND BUREAU OF THE
[Billions of dollars]
Account
Calendar year 1948, first quarter, annual
rates, seasonally adjusted
Calendar year 1947
Calendar year 1946
Excess of
Excess of
Re- Expend- receipts (+) Re- Expend- receipts (+)
ceipts itures or expendi- ceipts itures or expenditures (— )
tures (— )
Consumers:
158.4
Disposable income
143.7
Expenditures.
- ...
.»
Savin&r (-40
Business:
13. 3
Undistributed profits and reserves
24.6
Gross private domestic investment
Excess of receipts (+) or investment ( — )
International:
4.8
Net foreign investment
Excess of receipts (+) or investment ( — )
Government (Federal, State, and local) :
Cash receipts from the public
-. 56.5
~~55.~2~
Cash payments to the public
Excess1 of receipts (-{-) or payments ( — )
-22.3 -24.5
Adjustments
«
..
0
-2.1
Statistical discrepancy
Total gross national product- _ - ... _ . - . - 203. 7
203. 7
175. 3
+ 14.8
17. 6
11. 3
164.4
27. 8
8.7
-4.8
59.3
53. 4
186. 1
+ 10.9
18.9
-10.2
62.3
+5.9
+ 6.5
-4.4
229. 6
0
229.6
Expenditures
173.2
36.0
4.2
-8.7
+ 1.3
+ 2.1 -18.2 -24.7
-2.1 -4.4
0
Receipts
51.4
-17.7 -20.4
-5. 3
244.3
244.3
Excess of
receipts (+)
or expenditures (— )
+ 12.9
-17.1
*-4.2
+ 10.9
+2.7
-5.3
0
1
Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation's Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services. The adjustments
eliminate double counting, such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans' pensions, which are reflected in government account as well as in
consumers' account. For detail,'see Appendix A of the President's Economic Reports.
*
'
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding*
Sources: Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget.
- ,
Section B: PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Lower food prices caused consumers1 prices to drop slightly in March,
to rise.
Most other items continued
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
200
200
175
150
125
100
0
'' 11 1 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 h i 1 1 1 1 1 i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 I M I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I| i 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 M I M 1 1 M f t
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
*ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE,
AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE: Deportment of Labor.
Council of Economic Advisers
[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
..
1947: May
June
July.
August
September
October...
November
December
1948; January
February
March
1
All items »
•...
..
.;
.
_,
„..
Food
Clothing
Rent
99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128 4
139. 3
159. 2
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138.0
136. 1
139 1
159. 6
193. 8
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145 9
160. 2
185. 8
104. 3
104.6
106.2
108. 5
108.0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111.2
156. 0
157. 1
158. 4
160. 3
163. 8
163. 8
164. 9
167.0
187. 6
190.5
193. 1
196. 5
203. 5
201. 6
202. 7
206. 9
185. 0
185. 7
184. 7
185. 9
187. 6
189. 0
190. 2
191.2
109. 2
109.2
110. 0
111. 2
113. 6
114. 9
115. 2
115.4
168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
209. 7
204. 7
202.3
192. 1
195. 1
196.3
115. 9
116.0
116.3
Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities*
Source: Department of Labor.
WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices displayed some upward tendency in April, with food prices almost back to the peak
levels of early January. Farm prices have recovered about 2/5 of the January-February drop*
Other than farm and food prices have continued an upward creep.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
22O
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
200 i
206
FARM PRODUCTS
180
180
160
160
ALL COMMODITIES
140
140
OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS
120
120
• •wr
I
1
100 £
J
F
M
A
,
M
1
I
1
J
I
J
I
A
I
S
too
I
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
0
1948
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
WHOLESALE PRICES
[1926=100]
All commod- Farm products
ities
Week ended—
1946: Jan* 5
June 29
Sept. 28
1947: Mar. 29
June 28
Sept. 27
Dec. 27
' .- .
1948: Jan. 3
10
.*.. .- -
106. 8
112.7
124.4
139. 6
131.3
140.3
156. 6
167. 7
108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
100. 6
105.4
112.4
123.9
....
..
---.
...
..
—
149.4
147. 6
156. 2
163. 0
183.8
179.0
184.7
197.0
166.5
162.2
177.6
177.8
131. 9
132.0
138.2
146.0
.....
..
—
..
164.4
164 5
165. 5
164.4
163.7
199. 2
197.0
201. 5
199. 2
195. 1
181.3
182.1
181. 2
177. 4
176.5
146.4
146.9
147.4
147.6
148.0
163. 8
159.7
159.2
159.2
195. 5
180.9
181.7
182. 8
177.9
173.3
170. 3
170. 5
147. 8
147.5
147.5
147.3
160.4
159. 8
161.5
161. 1
187.1
1849
187. 6
186.2
172.2
171.2
176.4
1748
147.3
147. 3
147.3
147.4
160. 1
160. 6
162.9
163.6
162.6
183.9
183. 1
189.2
188.9
186.9
172. 4
1745
178. 8
180.4
177. 5
147.7
147.9
148.3
149.0
148.7
...
i?:::::::::...:.:..:..!.:..
i....
24
31
u
—
:--
J....
-.
Feb. 7
14
21 .
28
Mar. 6
13. . L.™
20 .. ...
27
Other than
farm and
foods
:..
-J--
-
Dec. 28 - -.
Foods
.-. ..
i
*
..
..
Apr. 3 .
«.
..
10 .
17
^...
24
L
^.......
May 1.. .................... ......... ..
Source: Department of Labor.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received, by farmers in April continued to recover from the February drop. Prices paid by farmers
have been relatively stable since the first of the year.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
PERCENT Of 1910-14 AVERAGE
'350
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
300
PRICES RECEIVED
250
250
200
200
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
150
150
100
100
PARITY RATIO *
60
50
I
1939
*
40
41
42
43
RATIO Of PRtceS RECEIVED TO Pfi/CCS PAID,
I I I I I I I I IIF
_J_
44
45
J F M A M J J A S O N O U F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N 0
1946
1947
1948
r, AND TAX£S,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
[1910-14=100]
Prices received *
Period
Prices paid, including inter- Parity ratio2
est and taxes
1939 monthly average.
'.
1940 monthly average...- -.. _„ .„.— .
.
1941 monthly average-—,
. >„_
1942 monthly average
„• .
;..
1943 monthly average
_ _ . — .' ,. L.
1944 monthly average
. *
".1945 monthly average- „ - . ^
-------1946 monthly average
.
.
1947 monthly average
i
95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
124
125
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
77
80
94
106
119
115
117
121
J20
1947: January
,.
February
-..-.— --..
March
.
;..
April.
.Mav- -.-- --—_...- - .. .. June
-i.
-i--.
-.
July—
—
,
August.-. ;,
.
.September
.-.
..
October
.....
.
„.
November —-_.--..
..«.-.
]D^<*-6Tn^i"
, . ^- _ ^ ^ , . „ _ -T _ ™ .-„.._ ™ . ..„„„
260
262
280
276
272
271
276
276
286
289
287
301
215
221
226
229
228
230
230
234
238
239
241
245
121
119
124
121
119
118
120
118
120
121
119
123
1948: January
February
March
April
307
279
283
291
251
248
247
249
122
112
115
117
..
-
«,
....--.
.
._
* August 1909-July 1914~ 100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
2
STOCK PRICES
Industrial and railroad stock prices rose sharply in March and April, and utilities rose somewhat.
PERCI•NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVE RAGE
175
\
. ^- RAILROADS
•
_jtt^*
**/ ^^S
150
ISO
\
INDUSTRIALS
/
125
—W
>;
•A
J.f
UTILITIES ^^x*'
100
75
125
V
\ l ^
100
X +*^>s
^\/y
75
*"V>
V
50
SO
i
i
0
1939
40
i
41
l
42
i
43
t
44
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
r i i i i 1 i t i l l
J
45
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
O
J
F M A M J
1946
J
A
S
O N O
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
J
1947
F M A* M J
J
A SON
0
0
1948
* AVERAGE OP WEEKLY DATA THROUGH APRIL 21.
SOURCE: STANDARD AND
POOR'S CORPORATION.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
STOCK PRICES
402 COMMON STOCKS
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined in- Industrial (354 Railroads (20
dex (402
stocks)
stocks)
stocks)
Period
Utilities (28
stocks)
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
- - ...
1941 monthly average
_
1942 monthly average - .. 1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
•.
1945 monthly average
'.
1946 monthly average
-...-.--1947 monthly average . •
94.2
88. 1
80.0
69.4
91.9
99.8
121.5
139.9
123.0
94.8
87.9
80.4
71.3
94. 1
101.7
123.3
143.4
128.0
74.7
71. 1
70.6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136.9
143.0
105.3
98.6
95.8
81.0
61,3
82. 1
89.9
06.1
20.2
02.9
1947: January . . _.
February
March . .,
April
...
May
June
July
August
September. . .
October
November .
December
125.2
128.7
123.7
119.3
115.2
119. 1
126.0
124. 5
123. 1
125.1
123.6
122.4
128.5
132.6
127.7
123. 1
119.0
124. 1
131. 7
130.2
128. 4.
131.1
130.3
129.2
114. 7
118.8
109.9
102.2
95.1
97.6
108. 2
105.2
103.6
104. 2
100. 1
103.9
10.7
11.4
07.3
04.6
02.0
00.8
02.2
01.4
02.0
01.0
97.2
94.0
120. 1
114.2
116. 4
124. 1
126.0
119.2
121.8
130.3
106.5
101.9
105.2
114.0
95.1
92.6
93.0
95.9
1948 1 January
February _ - .
March
April1
.
75403-48-—8
1
......
..
.
..
-
~
~-
---
-
......
..
-
.
.
..
Average of weekly data through Apr. 21.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.
Section C: EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment dropped 200,000 in March, while the labor force remained stable.
75 - MILLIONS OF PERSONS
50
25
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
MAGNIFIED SCALE
> ppftlf
1941
1944
i
1945 1946
-
[ t j.
t i JpS :: i . ).. 1 . .}.. i ...'t i 1 )
t ±
::
1 j ' 1
1947
1946
i
i 1
i
i
I
i
i
1948
SOURCE: Deportment of Commerce.
Council of Economic Advisers
LABOR FORCE
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Period
1941 monthly average
1 944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
„
1947: January
February
March
_ ._ .
April
May
June
July __
_
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April '.
„
_
_-
_ _
_. _
.
.
Civilian employed
Total
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Unemployed
57, 380
65, 890
65, 140
60, 820
61, 608
50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761
9,100
8,950
8,580
8,320
8,266
1,470
11, 260
11, 280
3,300
1,440
5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2,142
59, 510
59, 630
59, 960
60,650
61, 760
64,007
64, 035
63, 017
62, 130
62, 219
61, 510
60,870
55, 390
55, 520
56, 060
56, 700
58, 330
60, 055
60, 079
59, 569
58, 872
59, 204
58, 595
57, 947
48, 890
48, 600
48, 820
48, 840
49,370
49, 678
50, 013
50, 594
50, 145
50, 583
50, 609
50, 985
6, 500
6,920
7,240
7,860
8,960
10, 377'
10, 066
8,975
8,727
8,622
7,985
6,962
1,720
1,620
1,570
1,530
1,470
1,397
1,371
1, 352
1,346
1,327
1,294
1,280
2, 400
2,490
2,330
2,420
1,960
2,555
2,584
2,096
1,912
1,687
1, 621
1,643
60, 455
61, 004
61,.005
61,760
57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
7,060
6,771
6,847
7, 448
1,242
1,226
1,236
1,237
2, 065
2, 639
2,440
2,193
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily*add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
In nonagricultural
industries
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
t
The March increase in employment was reflected fairly evenly in major industry groups.
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES
60
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES
60
30
FEDERAL,STATE.AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT* ''
20
10
10
1939
1944 *
1941
1945
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
[Thousands of persons]
Total wage
and salary
workers 1
Period
1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
average
average
average
average
average.
average
1947t January
Februarv-- _
March "
_
April
May
June.
Julv
August.
September .
October
November
December^
1948: January
February
March 2
.
,
_
.
_
_ *.
«
.
.
_ ...
.. -
. _
.
-- .. .
_
.
.
.
--
_i
Manufacturing
Trade
Federal,
State, and
local
government
Other
30, 287
36, 164
41, 480
39, 977
40, 712
42, 539
10, 078
12, 974
17, 111
15, 302
14, 365
15, 553
6,705
7,567
7,399
7,654
8,448
8, 712
3,987
4,622
6,026
5,967
5,595
5,411
9,517
11,001
10,944
11, 054
12, 305
12, 863
41, 803
41, 849
42, 043
41, 824
41, 919
42, 363
42, 201
42, 624
43, 039
43,298
43, 450
44, 081
15, 372
15, 475
15, 510
15, 429
15, 237
15, 328
15, 233
15, 595
15, 801
15, 831
15, 872
15, 965
8,552
8,507
8,565
8,552
8,545
8,582
8,558
8,586
8,688
8,889
9,075
9,455
5,384
5,367
5,415
5,426
5,447
5,399
5,281
5,288
5,425
5,469
5,450
5,653
12, 495
12, 500
12, 553
12, 417
12, 690
13,,054
13, 129
13, 155
13, 125
13, 109
13, 053
13, 008
43, 015
42; 683
43, 004
15, 878
15, 775
15, 870
8,821
8,738
8,797
5,417
5,387
5, 426
12, 899
12, 783
12, 911
1
Number of wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants,
and personnel of the armed forces are excluded. Not comparable with estimates for nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, as reported by
Department of Commerce.' because latter includes self-employed, proprietors, and domestic servants and are based on population enumeration whereas
estimates
in this table are based on establishment reports.
3
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
1
A shorter workweek in bituminous coal mining in February was attributable primarily to the freight car
shortage. The workweek for most other industries changed little. Preliminary data indicate little change
in March for manufacturing.
HOUFIS PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
50
50
MONTHLY « VEF«A<•E
MONTHLY
IHHrv\^
AVE RA<5E
*!?
!5T
40
40
30
30
20
ZO
1 0
10
f\
UT
T**
\
u
:jj:
I I l I l I l l 1 II
0
1939 41
44
45
1 1 1 1I1t 11 11
1946
ijii
1 1 1 111 11 1 11
1947
jjj:
1 M 11! 1 1 I 1 1
0
1939 41
1948
44
45
1946
50
MONTHLY AVERAGE
40
«!J?
1948
MON THLY AVERAGE
"-1^11.
40
«_***—V- s**-—'X/ •x
II
I 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I
1947
RETAIL TRADE
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
50
1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1
30
*~* -,
t^
30
•: :;
;: :;
{:•':
ijjij
'•':•':
'•':::
20
20
•:•:
10
10
l|
1 11 11111111
0
1939 41
44
45
1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1946
1947
, . 1 1 .1 1 .1 11 1 1 1 1 1 f . 1 1 1 1 1 .1 1 . 1 1 1 1 11
0
1948
1939 41
44 45
1946
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
SELECTED INDUSTRIES
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: January
_
February
March__
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. . -. .
1948: January 2
February
March3
1
2
4
4
„
.
.
Bituminous
coal mining
Private building construction »
37. 7
40. 6
45 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
27 1
31 1
43 4
42 3
41. 6
40 7
32
34
39
39
38
37
6
8
6
0
1
8
43
42
40
40
40
40
0
5
3
3
5
2
40. 6
40. 4
40. 4
40. 1
40. 1
40. 2
39. 8
39. 8
40. 4
40. 6
40 4
41.2
46. 7
43 6
43 7
36. 4
44 3
43 7
31 8
39 1
39 i
39 9
38 5
41. 2
37
36
38
37
37
37
37
39
38
38
36
37
6
9
0
1
7
7
9
7
0
0
6
9
39
40
40
40
40
40
41
41
40
40
39
39
9
1
0
0
0
8
1
0
0
0
5
7
40. 5
40.2
40.4
40 9
38, 7
37 2
36 6
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
8
Retail trade
39 8
40 0
WORK STOPPAGES
In March, more than 6 million work days were lost because of work stoppages in
bituminous coal mining and meat packing industries.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25
28
20
15
10
10
PEAK MONTH
\
1939 40
41
42
43
44
45
F M A M J J A S O N D
J
F M A M J J A S 0 N D
1946
J F M * AM J J A S O N O
1948
1947
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
WORK STOPPAGES
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
1939: Monthly average- April—peak month
1940: Monthly average
- -- -1941 1 Monthly average April—peak month
.
1942 : Monthly average
,.
.
1943: Monthly average
June—peak month _
1944: Monthly average
'.
1945* Monthly average
.
--October—peak month
1946: Monthly average..
1947: Monthly average1947 : January
:
February
--\March
April
_-«
--MayJune
July
» -.
August
_
September %
October . . .
.
November
. -__«
December . .
1948: January
~
---February
March 1
.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
1,484
4, 902
559
1,921
7,113
349
1, 125
4,699
727
3, 168
8,610
9,672
2,908
1,400
1,300
1, 200
8,600
6,800
4, 000
4,000
2, 500
2,000
1,900
700
500
1,000
725
6,000
Principal stoppage
Coal.
Coal.
Coal.
Coal.
Telephone.
Telephone.
r
Coal, meat packing.
Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
In March industrial production dropped a little below the peacetime record reached in February
because the increase in durable goods was not enough to offset the decline in mining. Preliminary
estimates indicate a further drop of 3 percent in April.
PERCENT OF 1935*39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
250
250
200
200
\
150
150
100
100
50
1935-39
1943
1945
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
F M * A * M J J A S O N D
1948
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE! Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
C o u n c i l of Economic A d v i s e r s
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
[Seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total=100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
Total
industrial
production
1935—39 monthly average
.
1943 monthly average- 1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average. - _._
1947: January
February
_ ... . .«
March . . .
April-_
.
May
June
..
July..!
_
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February.
.
March1 »
_
April
1
10
Preliminary estimate.
__ -
-- ^_ .. _
;
. ;_.._
100
239
203
170
187
189
189
190
187
185
184
176
182
187
190
192
192
193
194
192
186
Manufactures
Total
100
258
214
177
193
196
197
198
194
191
191
183
188
192
197
199
198
200
201
202
194
Manufactures
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
100
360
274
192
220
221
222
225
222
218
219
207
210
217
223
224
229
229
226
230
219
100
176
166
165
172
176
176
175
172
170
168
163
169
172
176
178
173
178
180
179
174
Source: Board of Governors pi the Federal Reserve System.
Mining
100
132
137
134
149
146
146
148
143
151
148
140
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
140
140
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
38
136
104
73
83
84
84
85
84
83
83
79
80
83
84
85
87
87
86
87
83
47
83
78
77
81
83
83
82
81
80
79
76
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
84
82
Mining
15
20
21
21
23
22
22
23
22
23
23
21
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
21
21
•
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
;MANUFACTURES
F^reduction of transportation equipment was up about 5 percent in March; iron and steel, up about
5 percent, reached the highest point since March 1945*
PERCE NT OF 1935- 39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
800
400
MONTHLY AVE RAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
F
700
300
600
200
V
500
100
400
0
1
:• •! im
j j:
1935-39
jjji
*"**
jjjjj
1943 1945
_LJ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 I 1 I
1 1 1 • 1 1 11 II 1
1946
1947
1948
IRON AND STEEL
300
300
MONTHLY AVERAGE
1-*XX]V
v/
200
200
100
\P
100
i i i ti 1 i i i ii , , , . , ! . , . . .
0
1935-39 1943 1945
1946
1947
0
1935-39
1948
1943 1945
1
1 1 1 111111 11
i i i i i I i i i ii
1946
1947
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
r~^
m£L
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES1
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment
Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average-1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: January
February
_
March
April
May--June_
Julv
August
September
October .
November
December
1 948 : January. ..
FebruaryMarch
.
-„-
i
-„
__•
_ - _-
.-.----«.
«
--
-.-
-
.
—
r
-
«
-.--
Lumber and
products
Iron and steel
100
734
487
232
230
100
130
110
130
144
100
208
183
150
195
229
233
239
237
225
233
217
213
227
232
234
243
142
147
147
144
142
142
133
142
140
143
150
153
192
191
196
195
197
193
181
188
195
204
202
205
244
231
242
156
150
147
203
203
209
1
These are selected groups of the durable manufactures total shown on page 10, The total also includes
machinery, nonferrous metals and products, and stone, clay, and glass products.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The output of petroleum and coal products and of textiles dropped about 3 percent in March.
Smaller decreases were registered in the output of manufactured food products and chemical products
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300
300
MONTHLY AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
200
200
100
100
I I I i I I I I II
1935-39
43
1946
45
1947
1935-39
1948
43
45
1947
1946
1948
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
400
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
300
200
200
TT
P
^^>/
100
100
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I1 1 1
1935-39
43 45
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 |
1946
1 I/I
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 f f
1948
1935-39
43
45
1946
1948
1947
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURESl
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935-39 monthly average..
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
1
;_
_
... _
'. ...
.
.
._
]
.
Petroleum
and coal
products
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
100
185
235
173
193
100
145
151
150
157
100
384
284
236
251
172
173
172
166
164
155
142
154
160
164
172
163
180
185
185
179
184
191
195
201
203
204
205
208
161
156
157
251
251
1K8
9,^1
155
154
155
157
158
156
158
157
253
250
251
249
248
248
251
255
178
179
174
214
214
208
158
160
158
255
251
250
OKI
These are selected groups of the nondurable manufactures total shown on page 10. The total also includes
leather and products, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, paper and paper products, and printing and
publishing.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
10
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Preliminary estimates indicate that construction increased seasonally in April.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OP DOLLARS
1,500
I,50O
/I:-! FEDERAL,
ESTATE, AND
!::::::;
LOCAL*
1,000
1,000
500
500
1939 1942 1944 1945
F M A M J
O
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
NTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,
COUNCIL Of
ECONOMIC AOVtSCAS
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
\
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average _
1947 monthly average
1947—January
February . >
March
April.May
June
Julv
August
September
October...
November ._
December
1948—January.
February ..
March
April2
.
_
__
:
;
_.
w
.......
. _
'.
*
_
_
i
- __ . .
„
'. _ .
...
,.
_>;
. .
-_.,..
_
_-._- — __^
.-
;
._
__._
.
_-_
..
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
Other
Federal,
State, and
local »
505
1,113
339
384
824
1,069
302
242
145
213
645
823
176
110
45
57
265
411
125
133
101
156
380
411
204
870
194
171
179
246
839
795
826
876
955
1, 070
1, 161
1,242
1,279
1,334
1, 272
1, 176
666
634
648
662
722
811
876
937
962
990
1,001
962
300
284
285
306
342
387
429
461
490
530
565
555
366
350
363
356
380
424
447
476
472
460
436
407
173
161
178
214
233
259
285
305
317
344
271
214
1,157
1,009
1,166
1,269
948
837
941
990
500
400
475
500
448
437
466
490
209
172
225
279
1
3
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
13
NEW HOUSING STARTS
Starts in March were about 40 percent above February and about 15 percent above a year ago.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
100
100
40
20
•* NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,
NEW HOUSING STARTS
New nonfarm units (conventional and
prefabricated)
Period
Total
14
Rural nonfarm
64, 683
71, 583
41, 164
39,910
23, 520
31, 674
1946: January
.. ,
February
March
'.. . . ... .!
......
April
•..
May-.
>
June
.
.
July...
August
«
.
- .. _.
September. _
,
October
.. «
November .
._ ..•
December
«
..
42, 500
49, 300
70, 400
79, 900
83, 400
79, 800
78, 500
81, 300
65, 800
58, 200
47, 800
39, 300
27, 351
31, 625
44, 922
51, 925
55, 671
51, 569
50, 202
52,506
41, 159
34, 638
28, 733
23, 662
15, 149
17, 675
25, 478
27,975
27, 729
28,231
28, 298
28, 794
24, 641
23, 562
19, 067
15, 638
1947: January
February.. . .
March
.
April.--.
May
June
«
July
August
September
October
November
,
December
40, 100
44, 100
59, 100
69, 500
72, 700
79, 400
80, 100
86, 200
92, 000
93, 800
80,000
62, 000
24, 611
25, 774
33, 674
38, 858
39, 376
43, 005
43, 962
47, 092
49, 313
51, 970
46, 185
35, 095
15, 489
18, 326
25, 426
30, 642
33, 324
36, 395
36, 138
39, 108
42, 687
41,830
33, 815
26, 905
1948: January a 2
.
..
50, 000
February .
'..... ^..
47,000
March*.—
— _ — i.:,....._._.
67, 000
\ New .nonfarm family dwelling units,
* Preliminary.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
30, 400
28, 800
41, 000
19, 600
18, 200
26, 000
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average..
Urban
__ .
...
.
• .. -_
.
....
I
_-•
,
.
^
. .'.. .. . *.
..
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Expenditures planned by business, exclusive of agriculture, for 1948 are estimated 15 percent higher
than actual expenditures for 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
15
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
' .!FUTILITIES '
1.0
to
MANUFACTURING
AND
MINING
1939
1941
1945
* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
VARIATION.
SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
(Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal)
Transportation
Total *
Period
Manufacturing
Mining
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946
1947 8
1948
_
•-
^
__
1946: First quarter..
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter *
Second quarter
*
Second half 8.
-
-
.--
_
_ „_• .
-
--
!
.«
- .
__..-.
Other
Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous *
5,200
8,190
6,630
12, 040
16, 200
18,710
1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
7,760
380
680
440
560
690
690
280
560
550
570
920
1,620
280
340
320
660
800
780
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,300
1, 850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,560
8,800
11, 160
13,240
14, 920
4, 400
5,600
6,600
7,040
440
520
640
640
400
520
640
720
520
680
680
800
720
920
1,120
1,440
2,320
2,960
3,600
4,320
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19,840
5, 800
7,400
7,480
9,160
600
640
720
840
640
880
920
1,240
720
920
800
760
1,320
1, 800'
2,000
2, 480
3, 600
4,120
4,640
5,360
17, 920
19, 120
18, 900
7,760
8, 000
7,640
800
760
600
1,360
1,560
1,780
720
840
780
2,040
2,400
2,380
5,280
5,600
5, 680
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service,
1
finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because
the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal
Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because figures are rounded
t o t h e nearest 10,000,000.
• • * • " •
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
is
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
In the first quarter of 1948 new issues, less than the previous quarter, were about the 1947
average. New money accounted for a larger part of the total.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
3.0
QUARTERLY AVERAGE
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
RETIREMENT OF
DEBT AND STOCK
1.0
1939
1943
1945
# INCLUDES P R E L I M I N A R Y ESTIMATE FOR MARCH
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
PROPOSED USES OF NET PROCEEDS
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses <rf net proceeds
Estimated net
proceeds
Period
1939 quarterly
1943 quarterly
1945 quarterly
1946 quarterly
1947 quarterly
average
average
average
_ >
average
average _ _
1946: First quarter- _ _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
__
,
. .
_
;
1947: First quarter
Second quarter _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter 2 •
1
Includes
2
'.... ..
.
small amount for other purposes.
Includes preliminary estimate for March.
Source; Securities and Exchange Commission.
16
New money
Retirement of
debt and
stock l
529
287
1,476
1,689
1, 528
81
77
270
820
1, 068
448
210
1,206
869
460
1,032
2,253
1, 562
1, 911
275
645
853
1,506
756
1, 608
708
304
1,018
1, 605
1,267
2, 222
673
932
797
1, 867
344
672
469
354
1,478
1, 332
146
I
INVENTORIES AND SALES
1nventories
rose slightly in value and sales dropped slightly in February.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MANUFACTURING
WHOLESALE
30
30
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
20
^**<*~*
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
20
INVENTORIES*
'
~^— ^/^
.^S-^!
-^
_
to
S*/
••Mb
SALES*
10
"* —-— —*-~
0
i i i i i 1 I i i i i
I i i 1 I J ] 1 i L1
1 1 I 1 1 1 t 1 l i l
1946
1947
1948
BILL.IONS
0
OF DOLLARS
1
1
»
\
1947
\
\
\
\
\
\
\
1
1
1
1
1948
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
DEPARTMENT STORES
30
400
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
20
SALES**
300
SALES v
""""""
0
i i i i i Ji i l t i
1946
RETAIL
ll 0
X, NVENTORIES*
i i t i• i 1 i i i i i
^
or-
S^~
200
INVENTORIES**
-'''
^ 1 NVENTORIES*
i i i i i 1i i t i I
.
i i i i t 1i i t [ |
1946
1947
1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 00
1
1948
1946
Ik SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.
1947
1
1
1
1
1
I
1948
** INDEXES COMPUTED FHOM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOR MONTH AND RETAIL
BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Manufacturing J
Period
Inventories 8
Sales4
Retail 2
Wholesale 2
Inventories 8
Sales *
Inventories 8
Department stores
Sales *
-- - -
-
- -
-
-±-
-
-_-._
.
1
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
8
Book value, end of month.
4
•..
16, 369
16, 590
16, 829
16, 837
16, 934
17, 175
18, 010
18, 466
18, 886
19, 533
19, 896
20, 259
20, 805
21, 176
21, 612
22, 058
22, 424
- - 22, 618
22, 778
22, 936
23, 120
23, 398
23, 577
23, 702
24, 000
24, 300
8,913
8,163
9,507
9,956
10, 058
9,702
9,976
11, 157
10, 738
12, 240
12, 426
12, 849
13, 226
12, 940
13, 937
13, 906
13, 688
13, 602
13, 115
13, 651
14, 628
15, 964
14, 678
15, 691
15, 300
14, 900
4,294
4,209
4, 304
4,390
4, 464
4,578
4,685
4,890
5,131
5,343
5,713
5,994
6,248
6,444
6,611
6,778
6,737
6,864
6,726
6,886
6,997
6,943
7,349
7,577
7,618
7,754
9,644
9,868
9,691
9,592
10, 087
10, 370
10, 998
11, 174
11, 402
12, 399
13, 069
13, 052
12, 683
12, 996
12, 627
12, 218
12, 369
12, 541
12, 403
12, 523
13, 263
13, 615
14, 333
13, 697
14, 092
14,028
6,286
6,446
6,522
6,729
6,899
7,043
7,426
7,793
8,216
8,716
8,931
9, 141
9,337
9,582
9,715
9,703
9,502
9,440
9,574
9,838
10, 052
10, 202
10, 199
10, 352
10, 562
10, 841
7,462
7,671
7,783
7,948
8,082
8,101
8,444
8,943
8,811
8,806
8,999
9, 205
9,097
9,285
9,399
9,610
9,681
9,743
9,730
9, 621
10, 162
10,258
10, 485
10, 653
10, 445
10, 374
10, 425
167
171
177
189
200
210
222
221
226
237
256
274
268
274
273
264
252
242
231
227
231
251
273
283
288
303
312
227
248
25S
252
25S
277
272
291
27]
258
27C
276
26£
26C
27$
27;
291
28?
28€
285
292
277
302
30c
284
282
28£
6
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail
book
value of inventories, end of month.
6
Preliminary.
Total for month.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Sales
1935-39=100 seasonally
adjusted 5
Millions of dollars
1946* January. .
_
February
March - _.
April ...
May.
June
July
_ _.
August
September..
October
November
December
1947: January
February .
March ......
April
May
June
- ....
July
August
. .
September
October
November •*.
December
1948: January fl
February
..
March 6. _
Inventoried
12
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
The value of exports showed little change in February despite the shorter month; imports
increased.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1.6
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1.6
— I 4
1.2
- I .0
2 -
1936-38
1943
M o J A S 0 N D
1945
1948
*
**
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS) AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS
RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE
NAVY.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars]
Exports l
Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
,
._
.. .
1947: January
February
March
._
April
May
June
July
..
August
September
October
November
December
_
1948: January
February
March
__
1
2
247
207
877
849
282
346
409
1, 193
1, 198
1, 383
1,362
1, 503
1.320
1,265
1,265
1, 183
1,303
1, 195
1, 199
531
437
444
512
474
463
450
400
481
492
455
601
1,091
1,086
1, 141
546
582
666
1,080
...
.
„
. __
Imports 2
1,281
Excess of
exports
478
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
18
40
798
531
440
803
662
761
939
850
1 029
857
815
865
702
811
740
598
545
504
475
Section E: PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
Moved up moderately in the first quarter. The increase in national income reflected mainly the increase in prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME "
200
200
rr:i: CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION :•
PROPRIETORS'AND RENTAL
INCOME
150
150
100
100
jCOMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES?
50
50
I
1944
1939
2
1945
3
4
2
1947
1946
I
I
2
3
3
4
1948
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
Total
.„
72.5
182.3
182. 8
178.2
202.6
-_-
Compensation of
employees
47.8
121.2
122.9
116.8
128. 1
Corporate profProprietors'
its and invenand rental Net interest tory
valuation
income
adjustment
14.7
34.4
37.1
41.8
47.8
4.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.6
5.8
23.5
19.7
16.5
23.0
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1946: First quarter
.
Second quarter ...
Third quarter
Fourth quarter..
1947: First quarter
......
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter .
1948: First quarter J
...
....
168.2
173. 5
179.9
191.0
111.5
114.0
119.2
122.2
39.4
39.2
41.9
46.7
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
14.2
17.2
15.6
18.8
194.6
199.8
203.3
212.3
124.7
125.6
128.7
132. 9
46.2
46.7
47.0
51.5
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
20.4
23.9
23.9
223.9
215. 0
134.0
53.2
3.9
2 23. 9
1
2 Preliminary
estimate.
Estimate at level indicated by Commerce's last tabulation of profits after inventory valuation adjustment,
which was for the third quarter of 1947.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
19
CORPORATE PROFITS
Were at record dollar levels in 1947. Dividend payments increased in fourth quarter and were substantially above a
year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
40
ANNUAL TOTALS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL
PROFITS
BEFORE
RATES
TAXES*
30
10
10
UNDISTRIBUTED
1929
1943
1939
* NO ALLOWANCE fOff
PROFITS
INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CORPORATE PROFITS
ALL PRIVATE CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947
9.8
6.5
24.5
21. 1
28.7
_
._-
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
8.6
11.3
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.5
17.4
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.8
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
6.9
10.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1946: First quarter
Second quarter...
Third quarter
Fourth*quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1
_
J
,
. .
_
15.2
19.4
22.9
27.1
6.1
8.0
9.3
11.0
9.1
11.5
13.5
16.1
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.9
4.0
6. 1
7.9
10.2
_
28.9
27.8
28.2
30.0
11.5
10.9
11.1
12.0
17.4
16.9
17.1
18.0
6.3
6.5
6.8
7.3
11.1
10.4
10.3
10.7
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, Detail will not necessarily
add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
PERSONAL INCOME
Decreases in wage and salary receipts and proprietors1 and rental income in February brought total
personal income down.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OP DOLLARS
ANNUAL TOTALS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
200 -
200
c
SOCIAL
SECURITY
150 -
150
PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL IN
100 -
I
1939
J 'F
1944 1945
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
*
*
I
A
I
M
J
I
I
j
J
A
S
I
O
j
N
0
D
'TERMINAL..LEAVE BOND CASHINGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 194?
^^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
Council of Economic Advisers
SOURCE! Department of Commerce.
J
PERSONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
-__„_-
_--
_ _
72.6
164. 9
171.6
177. 2
196.8
Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends Social security
and other
and rental and interest and GI payments
labor income
income
45.6
116.2
116.7
110. 8
122.5
14.7
34.4
37. 1
41.8
47.8
9.2
10.7
11.6
13. 3
14.9
3.0
3.6
6.2
11. 3
11.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1947: January February
March.
April
May . _
June.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
jV^arch i
- -
--
-
'.
.
.-
189.3
189. 5
190.6
189.4
190. 5
194. 1
194.9
193.8
209.9
203.2
204.2
210.4
118.5
118. 8
118. 7
117.7
119.1
121.9
121.7
123.0
125.0
125.6
128.3
130. 0
45.8
45.9
46.8
46.5
46.5
47. 1
47.4
45.5
48. 1
50.4
49.9
54.0
14.0
14. 1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14. 6
14.7
14.9
15.6
15.4
15.5
15.6
11.0
10.7
10.9
10.9
10.5
10.5
11. 1
10.4
21.2
11.8
10.5
10.8
211. 4 .
207. 1
208.5
130. 1
128.6
54.5
51.7
15.7
15.8
11. 1
11.0
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
21
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
The estimated consumer income and expenditures for the first quarter of 1948 suggest a checking of the rate of increase.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
ANNUAL TOTALS
200
200
DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME*
150
150
100
100
CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
50
1939
1940
1942
1941
50
1944
1943
1945
X PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
* * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income J
Period
1939.
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945. .
1946
1947
.-
70.2
75.7
92. 0
116.2
131.6
146.0
150.7
158.4
175.3
_
...
_
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82. 3
90.8
101.6
110.4
121.7
143.7
164.4
2.7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
35.6
29.0
14.8
10.9
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter...
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
2
1948: First quarter ._
1
8
_
.
....
Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Commerce.
22
.. .
150. 9
153.8
160.4
168.0
134.3
138.2
147.3
154.9
16.6
15.5
13.1
13.1
.
168.8
170. 1
177.9
183.7
156.9
162.3
165.8
172.5
11.9
7.8
12.1
11.2
185. 5
174.0
11.5
;
PER CAPITA INCOME*
An increase in prices during the first quarter more than offset the small increase in per capita income. This resulted in a
drop in the real purchasing power of consumers.
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL
RATES
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS**
1,200
1,200
600
800
CURRENT
DOLLARS
400
400
1939
1940
1941
1943
1942
1944
2
3
4
1946 *
1945
* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
#"* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE I ST HALF OF 1947 * /OO.
1
2
3
1947
4
pit*
3
z
4
1948
**# PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita disposable
personal
income l
Consumers'
price index,
first half of
1947=100
Period
Current dollars
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
.
_
-
_
..
„.
„-—
„
-
--
_
--
.
._
$536
574
691
863
964
• 1, 057
1,080
1,122
1, 216
First half of
1947 dollars 2
Seasonally adjusted annual
rates
1946* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter
1947* First quarterSecond quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948* First quarter
8
-_
-
-
.
. -.
.....--
..-
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
1,074
1,091
1,133
1,181
1,285
1, 284
1, 225
1,211
83.6
84.9
92.5
97.4
._.«.
---
1,180
1, 184
1,232
1,266
1,188
1,177
1,190
1,191
99.3
100.6
103.5
106. 3
-
1,274
1,181
107.9
-
.-
64.0
64.5
67.7
75.0
79.5
80.8
82.6
89.6
102. 4
$838
890
1, 021
1,151
1,211
1, 308
1,306
1,251
1, 187
1
Income
2
Current
8
less taxes.
dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947= aoov
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
23
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
1Hourly
earnings continued to rise in most industries in early 1948. In February, earnings in bituminous coal
rnining were reduced by the loss of overtime pay during a shorter workweek.
DOLLA RS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
1.50
1.50
^Xlst HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
••••••
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
1.00
^—
1.00
\UR RENT DOLLARS
^CURRENT DOLLARS
.50
0
.50
i iit i 1 i t i ii
1946
i t i i i 1 ri i ii
1947
0
1948
i i i i i 1 i i iit
1946
1 t
1 1
1 1
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1 1
1947
1948
2.00
1st HALF OF 1947
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
DOLLARS*^X*--«•*»
«*»
r
1.50
~•****/ s^r"
—
^
CUF "
RENT
DOLLARS
CUF RENT DOLLARS
1.00
1.00
.50
0
1 1
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00
1.50
1
.50
1 1 1 i ! 1 I 1 1 1 I
1 i
1 1 I 1 1
1946
I 1
1 1
1947
i i i i i I i i i i i
0
1948
i i i i i 1 i i t ii
1946
i i i i i 1 i i i ii
i i i i t Ii i i i i
1947
1948
* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE Iff HALF OF 1947 "100
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Bituminous coal mining
Private building
construction 1
Period
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars ?
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars 2
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars 3
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars a
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
$0. 633
.729
1. 019
1.023
1.084
1.221
$0. 989
1.077
1.261
1.238
1. 210
1. 192
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
$0. 838
.839
.896
.936
.980
.968
$0. 886
.993
.1. 186
1.240
1.401
1.644
$1. 384
1.467
1.468
1.501
1.564
1.605
$0. 932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1.478
1.676
$1. 456
1.492
1.632
1.669
1.650
1.637
1947: January..
_.
February
March .
April
.
May
June
July
August
*
September
October
November ...
December
1. 161
1, 170
1. 180
1.186
1.207
1.226
1.230
1.236
1.249
1.258
1.268
1.278
1. 177
1. 187
1. 173
1. 180
1.202
1.213
1.207
1. 198
1. 185
1.194
1. 195
1. 189
.953
.957
.960
.974
.985
.996
1.003
1.003
1.012
1.013
1.025
1. 016
.967
.971
.954
.969
.981
.985
.984
.972
.960
.961
.966
.945
1.491
1.491
1.484
1.483
1.470
1.489
1.740
1.787
1.819
1.798
1.851
1.826
1.512
1. 512
1.475
1.476
1.464
1. 473
1. 708
1. 732
1.726
1.706
1.745
1.699
1.594
1.598
1.610
1.634
1.656
1.661
1.669
1.689
1.718
1.738
1.765
1.774
1.617
1.621
1.600
1.626
1.649
1. 643
1.638
1.637
1.630
1.649
1.664
1.650
1.286
1.290
1.293
1. 184
1. 197
1.204
1. 044
1.050
.961
.974
1.847
1. 826
1.701
1.694
1. 781
1.809
1.640
1.678
'.
_
1948: January 8
February
March3.
1
Covers only employees
2
Current dollars divided
8
_ _
at the site of privately financed building projects.
by consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947=100.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
24
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
EEarnings in bituminous coal mining dropped in February because of the shorter workweek.
Preliminary
indicate that earnings in manufacturing were still slightly below the all-time high reached
in December.
;
rriarch data
i
OOLL.ARS PER WEEK
DOLLARS PER WEEK
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL TRADE
60
60
CURRENT DOLLARS
^^M«*
CURRENT DOLLARS
40
40
M^l
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* *
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS
20
*tt
2O
i i t i t 1i i i i t
1946
0
i i t i i 1 i iiiii
1947
t
1
1
1
I 1
1
1
1
1
t t t i i 1 i i iii
1946
0
1
1948
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I
1
1947
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
I 1
1948
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
100
100
80
80
CURRENT DOLLARS
CURRENT DOLLARS
N
^•i
60
60
Ntt
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS
'
1st HA -F
40
40
20
20
1 II 1f 1 1 I1 f 1
1946
0
i*
1 I 1 1 11 t 1 t 11
1947
—^^^T
f 1 f f 1 i 1 M t I
0
1948
.... .1 .....
1946
OF 1947 /
DOLLARS* *
t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1
M
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
ft-* f CURRENT DOLLARS 01 VIDEO BY CONSUMER'S PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1ST HALF OF 1947 • IOO
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURIN8 THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATtONS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average ... ............
1941 monthly average....... ...„.!..„
1944 monthly average—
;
1945 monthly average............ ...
1946 Urtonthly average^
1947 monthly average.....
1947* January
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
September.
October
March
-
._
...................
.......
.
...................
.
'
ta.
__...-_...----_---........-..-.--.-..
. -..-.-------------.
..--- .
-. — ................
December ..
1948* January
-
......
....
8
-
--
......
--•+ -•-
First half
of 1947
dollars a
Retail trade
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars 2
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars 3
Private building construction *
Current
dollars
First half
of 1947
dollars'
$23. 86
29. 58
46.08
44.39
43.74
49. 25
$37. 28
43.69
57. 03
53.74
48.82
48.10
$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28.31
32.55
36. 70
$33. 08
32.40
32.90
34. 27
36.33
35.84
$23. 88
30. 86
51. 27
52. 25
58.03
66. 82
$37. 31
45.58
6a45
63. 26
6477
65.25
$30.39
35.14
52.18
53.73
56.24
63.28
$47.48
51.91
6458
65.05
62.77
61. 80
47.10
47.29
47.69
47.50
48.44
49. 33
48. 98
49.17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52.69
47.77
47. 96
47.41
47. 26
48.25
48.79
48.07
47. 65
47.88
48.43
48.34
49.01
35. 02
35.27
35. 31
35.93
36.50
37. 82
37.99
38.14
37.06
36.74
37.14
37.51
35.52
35. 77
35.10
35. 75
36. 35
37. 41
37. 28
36.96
35.16
34.86
35.00
3489
69.54
65.30
64.90
5414
65. 51
67. 09
54 87
70. 23
71. 19
71. 91
71.77
75. 22
70.53
66. 23
6451
5a87
65.25
66.36
53. 85
68.05
67.54
68. 23
67.64
69. 97
59.97
58.92
61. 23
60. 53
62.38
62.68
63.30
66.97
65.22
66.14
6455
67.31
60.82
59.76
60.86
60.23
62. 13
62.00
62.12
6489
61.88
62.75
60.84
62.61
52.14
51.83
52.25
48.01
48.08
4a65
37.62
38.33
34.64
35.56
75.78
70.54
69. 78
65.44
66.28
66.22
61.03
61.43
1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base first half Of
1
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
Bituminous coal mining
1947= ado.
25
FARM INCOME
The .purchasing power of farm income in March and April continued considerably below last year's level.
Dollar income was slightly below a year ago while prices paid were substantially higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I
I
I
1939 40
41
I
42
I
43
I
I ( I I ( I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
44 '45
I I I I I I I I I I I
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O .N D J F M A M J J A S O N O
1946
1947
1948
* CASH RECEIPTS FKOM MARKET I NO AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
** FARM INCOME IH CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 8Y Tfif INDEX OF PRIGfS PAID, MTffifSr, AND TAXCS ON THg BASe 1939 • 100.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
FARM INCOME
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars)1
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
•.
.-....•„,
.. ..
1941 monthly average .!
....
1942 monthly average
..;
1943 monthly average..
.
. . .
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average. :,..
L ' " '"
1946 monthly average. ...
..
1947 monthly average . . . .
.......
1947: January
February
March
April
May
June
July.
August
September
October
November
December
;
...
•.._
1948: January
February.!
...
March*.....
April*
.._.
.
Farm, income,
(millions of
1939 dollars)*
723
761
981
1,340
1 678
1, 753
1 857
2 110
2, 543
100. 0
100 8
106 5
121 0
130 6
13Q 3
138 7
155 6
186 3
173 4
178 2
182 3
184. 7
183 9
185 5
185 5
188 7
191 9
192 7
194. 4
197 6
1 317
1 065
I 139
.......
2 284
1, 897
2 076
1 974
2 026
2 211
2 662
2,517
3, 060
3 773
3 109
2,927
.
„.__
„...„....
....;..
2 534
1,866
1 961
1,951
202
200
199
200
i 052
933
984
972
..,
;
...
i..li...
. _
.
.......
' . . .,
.
r....
;
....._;
.......
Prices paid,
interest,
and taxes,
1939= 100 «
.;
. •
.,
•
... .
...
.
4
0
2
8
* Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments,
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100..
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939- = 100.
Preliminary,
Source: Department of Agriculture.
2
8
4
26
723
755
001
1 107
1 285
1 286
V OOQ
1
<**ifi
1 365
1 OfiQ
i 102
1 1Q9
1 435
1 334
1 595
1 958
i 509
1 481
AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME
All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war.
Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups.
MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES, (946 DOLLARS
FAMILIES*
2,000
GROUPED
FROM LOWEST
TO HIGHEST
INCOME
4,000
6,000
6,000
10,000
LOWEST
FIFTH
SECOND
FIFTH
THIRD
FIFTH
FOURTH
FIFTH
HIGHEST
FIFTH
* INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVIftEftS
SOURCE: THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1948.
AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME
Money income before taxes,
1946 dollars
Percent increase
Families grouped from lowest to
highest income *
1935-36
Lowest fifth.
*. _
Second
fifth.....
Third fifth *
Fourth
fifth
Highest fifth *
,
.... ..--....
„....„
.„
.^. ............
...........
Average for all families l
.
.
1941
1946
1935-36
to 1946
1941 to 1946
$446
069
1, 515
2, 284
5,928
$498
1,275
2,243
3,225
7,418
$8352,023
3,050
4,201
8,921
87
109
101
84
50
68
59
36
30
20
2, 229
2, 932
3, 806
71
30
1
Includes single individuals.
Source: The Economic Report of the President, January 1948, page 18«
27
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Showed little change in the first quarter, according to preliminary estimates.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
£00
800
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
X
150
100
* ** i
>\ , -i" • •£ NONDURABLE GOODS %
5iO
50.
I
1939
1944
2
1945
3
1946
# PRELIMINARY
I..
2
3
1947
4
2
3
4
1948
ESTIMATE.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars]
teriod
Total
.
i
1939
..
^
1944LL..U. . . . - ' . ' - ' •
1945
--.-.-...._- ;
1946
„......„.
1947
a
-
j,
........
.....,.—.
* .
Nondurable
goods
67.5
110. 4
121. 7
143.7
164.4
35.3
67.2
75.3
87.1
99.3
Durable
goods
6.7
6.8
8.0
14.9
19.8
Services
25.5
36.5
38.4
41.7
45.3
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter..^
Fourth quarter.
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
l
..T
...
.
^.,^»w..,
.
U
„„„„
.'. .
.
,^,
...
134.3
138.2
147. 3
154.9
82.6
83. 2
88.9
93.6
ia 2
4ai
156.9
162.3
165.8
172.5
94.7
98.4
99.9
104.2
18.2
19. 3
20.2
21.3
440
446
45.7
47.0
174.0
105.0
21.5
47.5
4
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding*
Source: Department of Commerce.
11.4
13. 9
16.2
40.4
41.2
42,1
CONSUMER CREDIT
In March total consumer credit regained the December peak,with the drop in charge accounts
compensated by a like rise in instalment credit.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
12 -
12
10
1929 1939
1941
1943
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A S O N D ' J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
END OF YEAR
SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
•rve System
SOURCE: Board of Govei
CONSUMER CREDIT
ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OUTSTANDING
[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
End of period
1947: January
February
March
April
May
June
.
July
August
September
October
November >_
December .*
1948: January .
February
March -
__
_ _ -
-
--
'.
----
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3
3.1
3.6
10.2
13.4
10.0
10.0
10.4
10.6
10.9
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.7
12. 1
12.6
13.4
4.0
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.7
6.2
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
13.0
12.9
13.4
6.2
6.2
6.5
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
5.3
6.6
>
Other
consumer
credit 2
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
2.0
9. 9
-
Charge
accounts
3.2
4.4
5.9
2.0
2.4
4.0
6.2
7.6
8.0
1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946
1947
Instalment
credit l
3. 1
3.6
2. 8
* Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: .Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
2
O
N
D
Section F:
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
MONEY SUPPLY
Private demand deposits dropped $3 billion in March.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
150
125
125
U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS>$xS£SSB
100
100
75
50
1929
1939
1941
1943
1946
J F M*A M J J A S O N D
J F M A M J J A S O N D
1945
END OF Y E A R
1947
1946
1948
^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Council of Economic Advisers
MONEY SUPPLY
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929.
1939.
1941.
1943.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1947: January ...
February
March
April.
May
June..
July...
August
September
October
November
December..
1948: January..
February
March 3_
Total money
supply
Currency
outside
banks
Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
U. S. Government
deposits 2
26 5
3 6
22 8
0 2
37. 0
6, 4
29. 8
.8
50 5
9 6
39 0
19
90. 1
18. 8
60. 8
10 4
126 9
26 5
75 9
24 6
113. 1
26. 7
83. 3
31
115. 1
87. 2
26.5
1. 4
82. 5
111. 7
26. 1
3. 1
... . ._
110. 5
26 2
80 6
37
110. 2
26 1
80. 4
3. 7
2 7
110. 1
26. 1
81. 3
.
109. 8
26. 1
81. 5
2. 2
109. 8
82 1
26 3
14
26. 0
83. 2
110. 6
1. 4
111.3
26. 2
83. 4
1. 7
84.2
112.5
26.4
1.9
26.3
85.4
113. 5
1. 8
85.9
114.4
26.6
1. 9
115. 1
87 2
26 5
14
.. „
.
25. 8
113.7
86. 6
14
;„_.
112. 2
25.7
84. 6
1. 8
25.6
2.4
109.6
81.6
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, inpludes TJ. S.'Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
8
^Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Bpard of Governors pf the Federal Reserve System.
30
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Commercial bank loans increased a little in March. Investments in U.S. securities, however,
declined more than $2 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
125
125
TOTAL (All commercial banks)
100
100
INVESTMENT
IN
U. S.GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
75
75
50
50
25
25
1929 1939 1945
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
*
A
1947
END OF YEAR
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
1948
END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Council of Economic Advisers
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
[Billions of dollars]
Investments
End of period
1929
1939.
1945
1946
1947.
..
_._
1947: January
February
March
April
_
May
June
July
_
August
September
..
October
November . «
December
„
1948: January.;
February
March *
._ ___ -'
..
__
_
____
_ _
- _
..
.
„
.
_
-
.
..
and investments
Bank loans
49. 5
40. 7
124.0
114. 0
116. 4
36. 0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
13. 5
23.4
97. 9
82. 9
78.3
4. 8
16.3
90. 6
74.8
69. 3
8. 7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9.0
113. 8
113.0
113. 1
113.2
112. 9
112. 8
113.4
114.0
115.3
116.4
116. 7
116. 4
31.4
31. 9
32. 3
32. 8
33. 1
33. 7
34.0
34. 9
35. 6
36. 9
37. 7
38. 1
82.4
81. 1
80. 8
80. 4
79. 8
79. 1
79. 4
79. 1
79.7
79. 5
79.0
78.3
744
73. 1
72. 5
72.0
71. 5
70. 5
70.7
70.3
70.8
70. 5
70. 1
69.3
8.0
8.0
8.3
8.4
8. 3
8. 5
8.7
8.8
8.9
9. 0
8.9
9.0
116. 6
115. 5
113. 6
38.2
38.7
38.9
78.4
76.9
74. 7
69.4
67.9
65. 5
9.0
9.0
9.3
Total
U. S. Government
securities
Other
securities
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments in the first quarter 1948 was $6.4 billion as compared with
$ 5.2 billion in the first quarter 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20
20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
IS
15
10
10
I
2
2
3
3
2
1947
1946
3
1948
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year and quarter
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter 1
__ _
Cash receipts Cash payments
_._
.
__-
•
.
.
._ .
.
. .
14, 153
11 098
10,377
9 870
14, 962
11, 430
10 470
10,011
15, 732
13, 648
13 599
9, 106
8,909
9, 772
12, 198
10 503
8, 666
9,322
Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )
+ 505
— 2, 501
+ 1,271
+ 961
+ 5, 190
— 768
— 33
+ 1,345
+ 6,410
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Treasury Department.
32
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE* IMS
@FedFRASER