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W5th Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
MARCH
1997
(Includes data available as of April 2, 1997)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
LIBRARY
APR 2 1 1997
FEDERAL RESERVE
BANK OF CHICAGO
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1997
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman
CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)
MARK SANFORD (South Carolina)
MAC THORNBERRY (Texas)
JOHN T. DOOLtTTLE (California)
JIM McCRERY (Louisiana)
FORTNEY PETE STARK (California)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)
CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)
ROD GRAMS (Minnesota)
SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas)
JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)
CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
JANET L. YELLEN, Chair
ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member
JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member-Nominee
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11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
In the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose
5.4 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.8 percent, and the implicit price deflator
rose 1.5 percent.
BltUONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCAlf)
BIL1JONS OF DOUARS |RAJK> SCAIE)
8,000
5EASONAU.Y ADJUSTS) ANNUAL RAJB
.
8,000
.
7,600
7,600
/
7,200
^-1
7,200
_-
4,800
6,800
^ -•
GDP
INO-1A1NED(1992)DOUARS
\
^""
6,400
6,000
6,400
--,._ __
/-— ^
s~
5,600
___.,-
,— """
^
6,000
^
5,600
X""
5,200
5,200
"
-^C
X
4,800
X
/
r
4/400
'
4,800
cor'
IN CURRENT DOUARS
4,400
^
/
4,000
4,000
3,600
/
/ {^
3,600
3,200
3,200
^
\
\
\
1982
1983
i \ i
1984
1985
1986
1987
1 1 1
1988
i i i
1989
t I 1
1990
i it
< i i
\
1991
1992
1993
\ |
1
i
t
!
1994
1
1995
!
1996
CCXJNOlOFECOHOMKADVtSSiS
SOURCE: DBWtTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates]
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991: IV
1992- IV
1993- I
II
m
IV
1994- I
n
in ....
IV ...
1995- I
n
in
IV
1996- I
n
in
IV <•
1
Exports and imports
Personal Gross
of goods and services
conGross
private
domestic sumption domestic
Net
product expendi- investtures
exports Exports Imports
ment
5,049.6
5,438.7
5,743.8
5,916.7
6,244.4
6,553.0
6,935.7
7,253.8
7,576.1
6,002.3
6,383.0
6,442.6
6,506.2
6,574.4
6,688.6
6,776.0
6,890.5
6,993.1
7,083.2
7,149.8
7,204.9
7,309.8
7,350.6
7,426.8
7,545.1
7,616.3
7,716.1
3,349.7
3,594.8
3,839.3
3,975.1
4,219.8
4,454.1
4,700.9
4,924.9
5,151.4
4,027.1
4,329.6
4,367.6
4,424.8
4,481.0
4,543.1
4,600.9
4,666.2
4,738.3
4,798.2
4,840.6
4,910.5
4,957.9
4,990.5
5,060.5
5,139.4
5,165.4
5,240.3
773.9 - 106.1
-80.4
829.2
— 71 3
799.7
-20.5
736.2
790.4
— 29 5
-62.7
871.1
-94.4
1,014.4
-94.7
1,065.3
-98.7
1,117.0
-14.8
760.9
42 7
816.1
—
479
843.6
596
855.9
-74.5
873.8
-688
911.2
-788
957.6
-930
1,016.5
1,033.6 -107.0
-98.7
1,050.1
1,072.0 - 108.7
1,050.3 -115.3
87 6
1,074.8
672
1,064.0
1,068.9
863
992
1,096.0
1,156.2
1202
89 1
1,146.6
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
447.2
509.3
557.3
601.8
639.4
657.8
719.1
807.4
855.2
624.4
649.1
646.9
660.4
645.3
678.7
678.9
707.4
729.2
761.0
776.1
797.3
819.0
837.0
839.5
850.0
844.3
887.0
553.2
589.7
628.6
622.3
669.0
720.5
813.5
902.0
953.9
639.3
691.8
694.8
720.0
719.8
747.5
757.6
800.4
836.1
859.6
884.8
912.6
906.6
904.2
925.8
949.2
964.5
976.0
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Total
Total
1,032.0
1,095.1
1,176.1
1,225.9
1,263.8
1,290.4
1,314.7
1,358.3
1,406.4
1,229.2
1,280.0
1,279.3
1,285.1
1,294.1
1,303.2
1,296.4
1,300.8
1,328.2
1,333.5
1,345.8
1,359.4
1,364.6
1,363.4
1,383.7
1,408.8
1,414.8
1,418.3
457.3
477.2
503.6
522.6
528.0
522.6
516.4
516.6
523.1
515.5
535.0
525.5
520.1
521.3
523.5
511.3
509.4
523.8
520.9
519.7
522.0
516.8
507.7
518.6
529.6
525.5
518.5
National Nondefense defense
354.0
360.6
373.1
383.5
375.8
362.7
352.0
345.5
'347.1
373.0
375.3
365.7
362.7
361.2
361.3
346.7
349.3
362.3
349.7
347.6
351.7
345.7
337.1
343.9
353.7
348.8
341.9
103.3
116.7
130.4
139.1
152.2
159.9
164.3
171.0
176.0
142.6
159.7
159.8
157.4
160.1
162.2
164.6
160.0
161.5
171.2
172.1
170.3
171.1
170.6
174.7
175.8
176.7
176.7
State
and
local
574.7
617.9
672.6
703.4
735.8
767.8
798.4
841.7
883.3
713.6
745.1
753.8
765.0
772.7
779.7
785.0
791.4
804.4
812.6
826.1
837.3
847.7
855.7
865.1
879.2
889.3
899.8
Final
Gross
sales of domestic
domestic
purproduct chases1
5,038.7
5,407.0
5,735.8
5,919.0
6,237.4
6,532.4
6,876.2
7,216.7
7,560.7
5,980.9
6,376.6
6,422.8
6,484.6
6,552.3
6,669.8
6,735.9
6,816.0
6,928.5
7,024.6
7,091.7
7,170.9
7,271.5
7,332.8
7,428.6
7,537.1
7,579.6
7,697.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
5,155.6
5,519.1
5,815.1
5,937.2
6,274.0
6,615.7
7,030.1
7,348.4
7,674.8
6,017.1
6,425.7
6,490.5
6,565.8
6,648.8
6,757.4
6,854.8
6,983.5
7,100.1
7,181.9
7,258.4
7,320.2
7,397.3
7,417.8
7,513.2
7,644.3
7,736.5
7,805.2
Addendum:
Gross
national
product
5,062.6
5,452.8
5,764.9
5,932.4
6,255.5
6,563.5
6,931.9
7,246.7
7,567.1
6,016.6
6,390.5
6,458.6
6,516.5
6,587.1
6,691.9
6,781.0
6,888.3
6,987.0
7,071.4
7,146.8
7,202.4
7,293.4
7,344.3
7,426.6
7,537.5
7,598.9
7,705.6
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Personal
Grass
eondomestic sumption
product expenditures
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV
1992: IV
1993- I
n
ra
IV
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995- I
n
m.
IV
1996- I
n
m
IV'
:
5,862.9
6,060.4
6,138.7
6,079.0
6,244.4
6,386.4
6,608.7
6,742.9
6,907.2
6,104.4
6,327.3
6,326.4
6,356.5
6,393.4
6,469.1
6,508.5
6,587.6
6,644.9
6,693.9
6,701.0
6,713.5
6,776.4
6,780.7
6,814.3
6,892.6
6,928.4
6,993.6
3,972.7
4,064.6
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,339.5
4,473.2
4,577.8
4,690.7
4,109.1
4,282.3
4,289.7
4,318.8
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
4,534.8
4,569.9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,687.6
4,693.5
4,732.5
Gross private
domestic investment
Nonresidential
fixed
investment
Residential
fixed
investment
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
766.8
539.5
569.1
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.5
781.4
792.0
Change
in business
inventories
11.6
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.3
19.1
58.9
33.1
14.0
21.4
5.8
18.5
20.8
19.5
17.4
40.5
74.5
64.5
56.1
54.5
30.5
33.0
14.6
30
7.1
34.5
17.3
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
276.7
202.4
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.5
277.8
276.6
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Total
Total
-82.7
-61.9
-22.3
-29.5
-72.0
-105.7
-107.6
-113.6
465.8
520.2
564.4
599.9
639.4
658.2
712.0
775.4
825.9
-17.9
-40.0
623.5
649.1
-56.0
-64.4
-86.2
-81.5
-99.3
-107.3
-111.7
-104.3
-122.5
-121.4
-101.6
-84.9
-104.0
-114.7
-137.4
-98.4
647.1
660.0
645.5
680.3
677.6
703.1
719.6
747.6
752.3
763.2
783.0
803.1
806.7
817.9
816.1
862.9
-1144
Imports
1
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
Note.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the ehamed-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
580.2
603.0
626.3
622.2
669.0
730.2
817.6
883.0
939.5
641.4
689.1
1,180.9
1,213.9
1,250.4
1,258.0
1,263.8
1,261.0
1,260.0
1,260.2
1,270.6
703.1
724.4
731.7
761.8
777.0
810.4
831.3
851.9
874.9
884.6
884.5
888.0
910.7
932.6
953.5
961.3
Nondefense
National
defense
656.6
682.6
708.6
718.7
735.8
751.8
770.5
788.6
804.3
381.7
376.8
119.1
130.1
140.5
142.0
152.2
153.8
152.6
152.3
152.8
145.3
157.1
361.6
356.9
351.6
351.2
334.8
335.5
346.2
331.3
325.0
325.5
319.1
308.8
311.9
319.4
314.9
309.4
154.4
152.7
154.2
153.7
154.9
147.8
150.4
157.5
155.6
153.5
153.1
147.0
150.6
153.7
153.9
153.1
741.6
748.8
755.7
761.3
762.7
766.8
774.7
777.7
782.2
786.3
791.5
794.4
792.6
805.5
807.7
811.4
524.6
531.5
541.9
539.4
528.0
509.2
489.8
472.3
467.1
405.5
401.6
401.5
397.5
375.8
355.4
337.0
319.6
313.9
1,250.7 526.9
1,272.5 534.0
1,257.7
1,258.4
1,261.6
1,266.2
1,252.4
1,249.8
1,271.2
1,266.6
1,262.7
1,265.1
1,263.4
1,249.6
1,254.7
1,278.2
1,276.1
1,273.4
516.1
509.7
505.9
505.0
489.9
483.3
496.7
489.2
481.0
479.4
472.5
456.2
462.9
473.4
469.3
462.9
State
and
local
723.8
738.5
Final
sales of
domestic
product
Gross
domestic
purchases'
Addendum:
Gross
national
product
5,855.1
6,028.7
6,126.7
6,082.6
6,237.4
6,365.5
6,550.7
6,708.9
6,892.1
6,083.8
6,320.7
6,307.1
6,334.5
6,371.3
6,449.2
6,467.7
6,514.9
6,582.1
6,638.1
5,983.9
6,146.1
6,202.1
6,101.1
6,274.0
6,457.6
6,711.8
6,847.1
7,016.6
6,122.3
6,367.3
5,876.2
6,074.0
6,159.4
6,094.4
6,255.5
6,397.1
6,606.0
6,737.1
6,900.1
6,118.7
6,334.8
6,382.1
6,420.4
6,478.6
6,549.3
6,605.9
6,692.3
6,753.7
6,795.3
6,819.8
6,830.9
6,874.8
6,862.9
6,914.6
7,003.0
7,060.7
7,088.0
6,342.5
6,366.9
6,406.3
6,472.5
6,514.0
6,586.2
6,640.0
6,683.5
6,699.1
6,711.9
6,762.0
6,775.6
6,814.9
6,886.5
6,913.7
6,985.2
6,647.4
6,682.4
6,741.4
6,764.2
6,815.2
6,884.7
6,892.7
6,975.9
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
I Index numbers, 1992=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Period
Gross
domestic
product
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
1991: IV
1992: IV
Gross private
domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Total
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Federal
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential fixed
82.2
86.6
91.2
95.8
100.0
103.6
106.7
109.9
112.7
93.7
96.2
98.4
99.9
100.0
100.9
102.3
103.4
103.2
92.1
95.1
97.8
98.8
100.0
103.7
107.0
110.3
112.2
96.0
97.9
98.7
100.3
100.0
99.9
101.0
104.1
103.5
95.3
97.8
100.4
100.0
100.0
98.7
99.5
102.2
101.5
98.7
100.7
97.4
101.5
99.9
100.1
98.9
101.4
100.2
100.0
101.3
101.5
101.3
101.9
102.4
103.3
103.9
104.7
100.5
100.8
101.0
101.1
102.3
103.6
104.3
104.7
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
84.8
89.3
94.6
98.1
100.0
101.5
102.8
104.5
107.1
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Exports
Imports
State
and
local
National
defense
Nondefense
87.2
89.8
92.9
96.9
100.0
102.6
105.4
109.4
112.0
87.3
89.8
92.9
96.5
100.0
102.1
104.5
108.1
110.6
87.5
90.5
94.9
97.9
100.0
102.1
103.6
106.7
109.8
99.7
100.4
97.8
100.2
97.7
99.6
86.7
89.7
92.8
97.9
100.0
104.0
107.7
112.3
115.2
98.1
101.6
100.0
100.1
100.0
99.8
98.8
99.4
98.4
98.1
101.8
102.0
103.0
103.6
101.1
101.6
102.7
102.9
103.5
103.1
103.9
105.5
101.6
102.2
102.3
102.4
Total
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
104.9
107.6
109.7
84.3
88.4
92.9
96.8
100.0
102.6
105.1
107.6
109.8
98.3
100.9
98.0
101.1
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
101.8
102.5
102.8
103.5
93.3
95.3
96.6
98.5
100.0
101.3
103.4
104.6
103.4
99.1
100.2
100.5
101.1
101.5
101.9
n
ra
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.1
102.4
103.2
103.9
103.9
102.0
102.4
103.3
103.6
105.6
106.2
107.1
107.9
101.6
102.2
102.7
102.7
105.7
106.2
107.4
108.6
100.2
100.6
101.3
101.8
97.5
98.8
100.6
100.9
104.4
105.4
105.5
106.5
103.6
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.3
108.3
107.4
108.7
n
ra
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
106.7
107.5
107.8
108.3
104.7
104.8
104.5
104.3
103.9
104.5
104.7
105.0
108.8
109.7
110.3
110.9
102.7
103.4
103.8
103.6
109.2
109.9
110.7
111.3
101.1
103.2
102.5
101.8
108.0
108.9
109.4
111.3
106.9
108.1
108.3
109.2
110.6
110.9
111.8
116.0
109.0
109.5
109.9
110.3
108.9
109.6
110.1
110.7
104.3
103.6
103.1
102.6
106.0
107.2
107.2
108.2
111.4
112.3
113.2
114.0
103.4
103.1
103.3
102.8
111.3
111.6
112.5
113.3
103.2
104.5
104.6
104.2
104.1
103.9
103.5
102.8
102.9
103.2
103.8
104.5
105.6
106.5
107.1
107.7
101.7
101.8
101.2
101.5
112.0
111.9
112.0
112.0
110.3
110.8
110.8
110.5
116.0
114.4
114.8
115.4
109.1
109.2
110.1
110.9
1993- I
II
in
IV
1994- I
IV
1995: I
IV
1996: I
n
ra
IV'
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
98.6
100.9
QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND
PERCENT CHANGES
[Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Percent change from preceding period *
Index numbers, 1992=100
Chain-type
quantity
index
Current
dollars
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1992: m ..
IV...
1993: I
II ....
in ..
iv...
1994: I
II ....
1995:
1996:
in ..
iv...
I
n ....
in ..
rv...
I
II....
in ..
IV .
1
51.9
56.3
62.5
67.0
70.8
75.1
80.9
87.1
92.0
94.8
100.0
104.9
111.1
116.2
121.3
100.4
102.2
103.2
104.2
105.3
107.1
108.5
110.3
112.0
113.4
114.5
115.4
117.1
117.7
118.9
120.8
122.0
123.6
Chain-type
price index
70.2
73.2
75.9
78.6
80.6
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
74.0
77.0
82.3
85.3
87.9
90.5
93.9
97.1
98.3
97.3
100.0
102.3
105.8
100.0
102.6
105.0
107.6
109.9
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.6
110.2
110.7
108.0
110.6
100.3
101.3
101.3
101.8
102.4
103.6
104.2
105.5
106.4
107.2
107.3
107.5
108.5
108.6
109.1
110.4
111.0
112.0
Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Quarterly percent changes are at annual
Implicit
price
deflator
Chain-type
quantity
index
Current
dollar*
4.1
8.4
11.0
7.1
5.8
6.1
7.6
7.7
5.6
3.0
5.5
4.9
5.8
4.6
4.4
4.6
7.3
3.8
4.0
4.3
7.1
5.3
6.9
6.1
5.3
3.8
3.1
6.0
2.3
4.2
6.5
3.8
5.4
70.1
73.1
75.9
78.4
80.6
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
104.9
107.6
109.7
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.5
109.9
110.3
Chain-type
price
index
-2.1
4.0
6.8
3.7
3.0
2.9
3.8
3.4
1.3
-1.0
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.0
2.4
3.0
4.3
-.1
1.9
2.3
4.8
2.5
4.9
3.5
3.0
.4
.7
3.8
.3
2.0
4.7
2.1
3.8
Implicit
price
deflator
6.3
4.2
3.9
3.3
2.7
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.9
3.8
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.8
1.9
2.5
2.2
3.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.5
6.3
4.2
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.4
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.1
1.5
2.8
3.8
2.2
1.8
2.3
2.9
1.9
2.4
2.1
3.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS. AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars)1
Gross domestic product
of nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
2,805.2
2,950.9
3,084.0
3,132.1
3,262.6
3,437.5
3,689.4
3,885.8
4,107.8
3,122.1
3,175.4
3,212.5
3,168.8
3,262.6
3,380.0
3,567.7
3,692.3
3,858.9
3,344.2
3,407.3
3,459.7
3,538.7
3,302.9
3,356.7
3,399.2
3,461.1
n..
m
3,601.7
3,663.0
3,709.5
3,783.2
3,503.9
3,553.0
3,577.7
3,636.3
n..
m
3,803.3
3,841.9
3,924.8
3,973.2
3,634.1
3,656.1
3,719.9
3,759.1
n...
m.
4,011.6
4,081.6
4,143.1
4,194.8
3,779.2
3,831.0
3,888.8
3,936.6
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996>>
1993: I ...
II..
HI
IV.
1994: I
IV.
1995: I
IV..
1996: I
1
Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in chained (1992) dollai
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate busine
with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
2
Total
eost and
profit2
0.898
.929
.960
.988
1.000
1.017
1.034
1.052
1.064
1.012
1.015
1.018
1.022
1.028
1.031
1.037
1.040
1.047
1.051
1.055
1.057
1.062
1.065
1.065
1.066
3
Consumption of
fixed
capital
0.101
.106
.110
.116
.115
.115
.116
.115
.115
.116
.115
.116
.114
.122
.114
.114
.113
.114
.115
.115
.115
.115
.115
.115
.114
Indirect
business
tax, etc.3
0.084
.088
.092
.100
.103
.105
.106
.109
.106
.105
.105
.105
.107
.106
.106
.107
.106
.108
.110
.108
.108
.107
.105
.105
.105
Compensation
of employees
0.591
.614
.640
.660
.673
.679
.682
.697
.705
.682
.679
.679
.675
.680
.681
.684
.686
.696
.698
.696
.699
.702
.706
.706
.708
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Total
Profits
tax
liability
Profits
after4
tax
Net
interest
0.082
0.033
0.050
0.039
.075
.072
.070
.077
.088
.102
.104
.112
.079
.085
.089
.098
.092
.103
.105
.108
.100
.100
.109
.108
.111
.113
.114
.111
.031
.030
.027
.028
.031
.036
.038
.038
.028
.031
.029
.034
.035
.036
.037
.039
.039
.038
.038
.037
.039
.039
.038
.038
.044
.042
.043
.049
.057
.066
.066
.074
.050
.055
.059
.065
.058
.067
.068
.070
.061
.062
.071
.070
.072
.074
.076
.073
.046
.046
.042
.032
.029
.027
.027
.027
.031
.030
.029
.028
.027
.027
.028
.027
.028
.028
.027
.027
.026
.027
.027
.027
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NATIONAL INCOME
| Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1990
1991
1992
1993
. .
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV . . .
1992- IV
1993- m
IV
1994: I
n
in
rv
1995- I
U
m
IV
1996: I
u
in
IV'
1
National
income
Compensation
of
employees'
4,611.9
4,719.7
4,950.8
5,195.3
5,501.6
5,813.5
6,150.9
4,770.0
5,061.7
5,214.1
5,311.3
5,304.8
5,493.2
5,561.7
5,646.9
5,709.9
5,755.4
5,861.4
5,927.4
6,015.3
6,118.7
6,203.0
6,266.7
Proprietors' income
with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments
Farm
Nonfarm
36.3
30.2
38.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
46.4
31.0
37.3
26.1
34.4
40.8
35.1
31.9
32.3
28.5
27.6
28.1
31.8
38.4
45.8
51.8
49.7
3,352.8
3,457.9
3,644.9
3,809.5
4,009.8
4,222.7
4,448.5
3,511.0
3,707.0
3,834.9
3,871.1
3,932.6
3,988.0
4,027.5
4,091.0
4,150.5
4,191.6
4,247.7
4,301.1
4,344.3
4,420.9
4,482.9
4,546.0
324.6
332.7
371.5
388.1
415.9
449.3
471.9
341.1
385.1
388.1
400.5
380.3
419.3
426.8
437.1
443.5
447.1
451.5
454.9
461.1
469.4
474.6
482.4
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
Rental
income
of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
61.4
68.4
80.6
102.5
116.6
122.2
126.8
73.0
92.3
104.1
104.5
101.1
121.0
122.2
121.9
120.6
121.6
120.9
125.8
126.9
124.5
127.0
128.9
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
369.5
382.5
401.4
464.4
529.5
586.6
654.0
379.6
427.7
469.6
512.8
459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9
560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8
645.1
655.8
661.2
654.1
358.2
378.2
398.9
457.7
517.9
570.8
631.0
375.2
420.5
465.9
500.5
471.6
516.2
534.3
549.6
542.6
547.3
597.9
595.3
624.8
633.5
637.6
627.9
Profits
before tax
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
371.7
374.2
406.4
464.3
531.2
598.9
639.9
382.8
420.3
458.0
504.5
475.5
526.0
550.8
572.4
594.5
589.6
607.2
604.2
642.2
644.6
635.6
637.1
-13.5
4.0
-75
-6.6
-133
-28.1
-8.9
-76
.2
7.9
-4.0
-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8
-51.9
-42.3
-93
-8.8
-17 .4
-11.0
2.0
-9.2
Capital
consumption
adjust;
ment
11.3
4.3
2.5
6.7
11.6
15.9
23.1
4.5
7.2
3.8
12.3
-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3
17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5
20.4
22.3
23.6
26.2
Net
interest
467.3
448.0
414.3
398.9
394.9
403.6
403.3
434.3
412.4
391.4
388.0
390.2
395.5
400.1
393.8
406.9
405.2
400.7
401.9
399.5
402.3
405.6
405.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)
Durable goods
Period
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV
1992- IV
1993: M
IV
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995- I
n
ni
IV
1996- I
n
m
IV'
1
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures
Total
durable
goods
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,339.5
4,473.2
4,577.8
4,690.7
4,109.1
4,282.3
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
4,534.8
4,569.9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,687.6
4,693.5
4,732.5
493.3
462.0
488.5
524.1
562.0
579.8
611.4
461.5
505.0
528.9
541.9
549.6
555.4
563.1
579.8
566.5
576.2
589.1
587.5
599.2
615.6
611.6
619.1
224.3
193.2
206.9
218.6
228.2
221.1
222.4
194.6
213.9
219.1
225.3
230.3
226.6
226.5
229.4
216.3
220.9
226.4
220.6
224.2
225.9
220.0
219.4
Nondurable goods
Furniture
and
household
equipment
Other
Total
nondurable
goods
Pood
173.5
177.0
189.4
208.4
230.1
251.1
275.8
178.0
196.4
211.0
216.8
219.0
226.1
232.6
242.6
243.1
247.1
254.1
259.9
264.1
276.0
279.0
284.2
96.6
91.8
92.3
97.2
104.2
109.8
117.1
88.9
94.6
98.9
99.9
100.3
103.0
104.7
108.8
108.9
109.9
110.5
109.9
113.9
117.4
116.9
120.3
1,316.1
1,302.9
1,321.8
1,348.8
1,390.5
1,421.9
1,442.0
1,295.7
1,339.8
1,354.0
1,359.9
1,372.9
1,383.9
1,397.0
1,408.1
1,416.6
1,422.9
1,424.7
1,423.2
1,436.1
1,440.9
1,442.2
1,448.6
662.9
659.6
660.0
674.3
689.1
702.1
704.6
656.5
668.6
675.7
677.9
682.3
688.6
690.5
694.9
700.5
701.3
703.6
703.0
709.2
704.9
701.6
702.8
Includes other items, not shown separately.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the ehained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Clothing Gasoline
and
and oil
shoes
217.9
215.9
225.5
233.3
247.2
257.2
268.2
213.1
230.9
235.0
238.6
241.1
243.3
249.0
255.5
254.6
257.9
258.8
257.3
262.5
268.9
271.0
270.3
107.3
103.4
106.6
109.1
110.4
113.3
113.8
102.5
107.3
110.9
109.3
108.8
109.5
111.6
111.6
113.4
113.6
112.5
113.7
112.6
114.3
113.4
114.9
Services
Fuel
oil
and
coal
Other
11.2
10.8
10.9
10.7
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.6
11.4
10.0
10.2
9.6
9.9
10.6
10.0
10.7
10.7
10.1
10.1
10.0
316.7 2,321.3
313.2 2,341.0
318.8
2,409.4
321.5 2,466.7
333.5 2,521.4
339.3 2,577.0
345.9 2,638.3
312.8
2,352.0
322.3 2,437.6
321.8 2,476.7
323.4 2,488.5
329.3 2,498.5
332.3 2,519.9
335.8 2,530.0
336.7 2,537.3
338.4 2,552.5
339.9 2,571.6
340.0 2,584.6
338.8 2,599.3
341.6 2,614.7
343.5 2,632.3
347.0 2,640.6
351.4 2,665.6
Total
services1
Housing Medical
care
627.2
635.2
646.8
655.0
668.2
681.7
692.9
638.6
650.6
655.9
658.5
662.1
666.1
670.7
674.1
677.4
680.0
683.2
686.3
689.0
691.6
693.9
697.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
602.8
621.6
646.6
658.8
668.8
684.1
698.3
630.8
652.2
659.7
661.4
663.2
667.6
670.4
674.2
677.8
681.3
686.0
691.2
691.1
696.1
699.7
706.5
Retail sales
of new passenger ears
and light
trucks
(millions of
unite)
13.9
12.3
12.8
13.9
15.0
14.7
15.0
12.3
13.3
13.8
14.6
15.0
14.8
14.9
15.2
14.9
14.4
14.9
15.0
15.2
15.0
15.1
14.8
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $57.8 billion (annual rate) In February, following an Increase of $23.5 billion in January.
Wages and salaries rose $50.0 billion In February, after falling $1.3 billion in January. (In February, private-sector
employment, average weekly hours, and average hourly earnings all rose, whereas in January a decline in hours
offset increases in employment and hourly earnings.) In January, the decline In wages and salaries was partially
offset by a large increase in transfer payments, due to cost-of-living adjustments to social security benefits, Federal
civilian and military pay raises, and other factors.
BIUJONS OF DOI1ARS* (RATO SCAlf)
7,000
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
4,000
4,000
" r\
3,000
3,000
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
2,000
2,000
\
1,400
1,400
OTHER INCOME
800
800
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
400
1 I IM I I I IM
1989
11 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
I I I M I I I I I iI I I I I I M I I I
1990
1992
M 1 I I I I I M I1 1 1 1
1995
1994
1993
M n 111
1996
1 II I I 1 I M i I
1997
COUNO. Of KXXOMK ADV15BB
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
,
July
Sept
Oef
Nov
Dec1"
1997: Jan1"
FebP
..
3,877.3
4,172.8
4,489.3
4,791.6
4,968.5
5,264.2
5,480.1
5,753.1
6,115.1
6,452.3
6,270.1
6,315.2
6,340.1
6,371.5
6,405.2
6,460.3
6,463.1
6,502.5
6,538.7
6,544.1
6,585.5
6,631.3
6,654.8
6,712.6
Wage and
salary
disbursements1
2,272.7
2,453.6
2,598.1
2,757.5
2,827.6
2,986.4
3,090.7
3,241.8
3,430.6
3,630.1
3,508.1
3,546.0
3,560.6
3,579.1
3,597.2
3,643.1
3,630.8
3,660.9
3,687.2
3,682.3
3,713.5
3,752.5
3,751.2
3,801.2
Proprietors' income3
Other labor
income ' a
235.4
251.7
273.1
300.6
322.7
351.3
380.9
402.2
424.0
436.2
427.4
429.1
430.8
432.4
434.0
435.6
437.1
438.6
440.1
441.5
442.9
444.3
445.1
445.9
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other tabor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and
the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
Farm
32.3
28.2
36.8
36.3
30.2
38.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
46.4
36.2
38.8
40.1
43.2
46.2
48.0
50.0
52.2
53.1
51.3
49.7
48.1
46.8
45.4
3
Nonfarm
260.6
294.7
308.2
324.6
332.7
371.5
388.1
415.9
449.3
471.9
457.0
461.3
465.1
467.3
469.9
471.0
472.7
473.7
477.3
479.9
482.4
484.7
488.2
492.0
Rental
income
of
persons4
45.5
55.7
52.4
61.4
68.4
80.6
102.5
116.6
122.2
126.8
129.1
126.7
125.0
124.1
124.8
124.6
126.3
126.6
128.0
128.9
128.9
128.8
128.7
129.8
Personal
dividend
income
101.1
109.9
130.9
142.9
153.6
159.4
186.8
199.6
214.8
230.6
225.3
226.5
227.9
228.7
229.4
229.9
230.8
231.5
232.3
233.3
234.7
236.5
238.2
239.9
Personal
interest
income
560.0
595.5
674.5
704.4
699.2
667.2
648.1
663.7
717.1
738.2
728.4
725.6
724.3
728.1
733.6
737.5
740.6
743.0
745.1
747.7
750.5
753.4
755.9
758.5
Transfer
payments5
543.3
577.6
626.0
687.8
769.9
858.2
910.7
956.3
1,022.6
1,079.7
1,057.4
1,062.5
1,069.0
1,072.5
1,075.4
1,078.9
1,082.5
1,085.6
1,087.3
1,090.2
1,096.1
1,098.8
1,118.6
1,121.4
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment.
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
4
5
Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance
173.7
194.2
210.8
223.9
235.8
248.4
259.6
278.1
294.5
307.5
298.9
301.5
302.7
303.9
305.2
308.4
307.7
309.8
311.7
311.0
313.2
315.9
318.0
321.5
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income In chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual
rate of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 1996.
BIUIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
6,000
5,500
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS' (RATIO SCAIE)
6,000
_-«S! 5,500
g^iii**
~-*tt
5,000
^a^-
5,000
4,500
HSPOSABLE PERSONAL INCO*
\
4,000
3,500
p^>
pSSS^S
!gli>>-~
3,000
2,500
2,000
gpfn
*ff
Hd
ji^
4,500
^S»-^^^
4,000
3,500
ISONALCXJTLAYS
3,000
P^
2,500
i i i
< i i
i i i
_L L 1
DOLLAR S' (RATIO SCALE)
22,000
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
20,000
CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS
18,000
\ _
~-\ — [^ 1
.- —. — 1
16,000
p--~
^f
14,000
'
^
\ 1
1
CURRENT DOLLARS
^
'
12,000
l It
i i i
**—'• -sfZZZ
1 L 1
P^*^TZ
l t I
1 L 1
2,000
DOLLARS' (RAIK) SCALE)
,
• 22,000
20,000
L —
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
^
10,000
8,000
^—-~-
10,000
^
i i i
1982
1983
\ t i
1984
1985
1 1 1
1986
\
\
1
1987
i t i
1988
1
1989
t
1990
1
1991
i f t
1992
\ < t
1993
i it
1994
1995
8,000
1996
COUNOt Of ECONOMIC
Period
Persona!
income
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
IjCSS:
Personal
outlays1
Equals:
Personal
saving
Disposable
personal
income in
billions of
chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita
disposable personal
income
Current
dollars
.
4,489.3
4,791.6
4,968.5
5,264.2
5,480.1
5,753.1
6,115.1
6,452.3
594.9
624.8
624.8
650.5
689.9
731.4
794.3
863.8
3,894.5
4,166.8
4,343.7
4,613.7
4,790.2
5,021.7
5,320.8
5,588.5
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
3,706.7
3,958.1
4,097.4
4,341.0
4,575.8
4,832.3
5,071.5
5,314.0
187.8
208.7
246.4
272.6
214.4
189.4
249.3
274.4
4,403.7
4,484.6
4,486.4
4,613.7
4,666.9
4,778.2
4,945.8
5,088.6
15,742
16,670
17,191
18,062
18,555
19,264
20,224
21,050
Percent
change
in real
per capita
disposable
personal
income
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
overseas
(thousands)2
Percent
Dollars
Billions of dollars
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 ..
1995
1996'
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures
17,801
17,941
17,756
18,062
18,078
18,330
18,799
19,167
14,531
15,360
15,732
16,520
17,253
18,033
18,719
19,404
16,430
16,532
16,249
16,520
16,809
17,159
17,400
17,669
17,759
18,277
17,900
18,069
18,084
18,256
17,966
18,346
18,430
18,574
18,704
18,676
18,829
18,986
19,041
19,063
19,242
19,322
15,871
16,877
16,984
17,164
17,335
17,528
17,714
17,924
18,154
18,338
18,463
18,689
18,823
18,901
19,128
19,383
19,433
19,670
16,194
16,692
16,681
16,754
16,864
16,937
17,019
17,127
17,200
17,290
17,296
17,393
17,454
17,458
17,573
17,679
17,657
17,764
1.0
.8
-1.0
1.7
.1
1.4
2.6
2.0
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.9
4.5
3.8
4.7
4.9
247,387
249,956
252,680
255,432
258,159
260,681
263,090
265,482
-8.0
3.8
.3
3.9
-6.2
8.7
1.8
3.2
2.8
-.6
3.3
3.4
1.2
.5
3.8
1.7
6.0
6.1
4.2
4.8
4.2
4.7
2.7
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.9
4.1
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.3
5.3
5.1
253,743
256,543
257,155
257,787
258,501
259,192
259,738
260,327
261,004
261,653
262,181
262,748
263,399
264,032
264,563
265,155
265,806
266,405
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1991: IV
1992: IV
1993: I
n
m
IV
1994- I
n
in
IV
1995: I
n
m
IV
1996: I ... .
n .
m ..
IV
1
5,048.9
5,415.3
5,349.1
5,459.2
5,501.6
5,610.5
5,562.4
5,739.1
5,808.2
5,902.7
6,004.5
6,074.4
6,146.9
6,234.5
6,308.5
6,412.4
6,501.4
6,587.0
632.5
674.8
662.4
686.9
696.4
713.8
705.5
740.8
731.3
748.1
770.0
801.5
798.4
807.2
824.9
870.6
872.5
887.2
4,416.4
4,740.5
4,686.7
4,772.3
4,805.2
4,896.7
4,856.8
4,998.3
5,076.9
5,154.6
5,234.5
5,272.9
5,348.5
5,427.3
5,483.5
5,541.8
5,628.9
5,699.7
4,149.8
4,450.0
4,489.2
4,545.5
4,602.2
4,666.3
4,728.0
4,796.1
4,870.8
4,934.2
4,980.3
5,054.4
5,106.6
5,144.7
5,218.1
5,300.7
5,329.8
5,407.5
266.6
290.5
197.4
226.8
202.9
230.5
128.8
202.2
206.2
220.4
254.2
218.5
241.9
282.6
265.4
241.1
299.1
292.2
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer
payments to rest of the world (net).
4,506.3
4,688.7
4,603.0
4,658.0
4,674.8
4,731.7
4,666.5
4,776.0
4,810.2
4,859.9
4,903.8
4,907.1
4,959.5
5,012.9
5,037.6
5,054.5
5,114.6
5,147.5
2
17,405
18,478
18,225
18,513
18,589
18,892
18,699
19,200
19,452
19,700
19,965
20,068
20,306
20,555
20,727
20,900
21,177
21,395
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Souree: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the third quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $11.0 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income fell $11.2 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
BILUONS Of DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
-,,, _„ ^
r~—i
160 N
h
^
^> ^
"
1
/
-<-— H
^
1LJ
~~"~
*"
•
'^"^
"N_^-«V
^
f
.--
"—
280
240
200
160
1
120
80
60
\
I
A
40
(
20
>\ i
i\i
i' \'
\<f •
/ I
K /
1
iv
'^
» /
1 '
/
\/
*"" \ ;
\;
\^
'""x *
^
A
,
^ /
s/ — ,
-_^
/
\'
^.
1F
.
*
\
«
."
' ^' \
\
\'
X ,'\l
\
40
1
NETFAFtMINCOAAE
20
1
'
A!
'
1
III
1 \l
\ , v
10
'1
4
i i i
1982
1
1983
1984
1
1
1985
i i i
1986
i i i
1987
i i i
1989
i i i
1988
i i i
1990
i i l
1991
1 1 1
1992
i l l
1993
" SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of AGRICULTURE
1 1 1
1994
1 1 1
1995
1 i I
. 1996
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Gross farm income
Period
Cash marketing receipts
Total'
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1994: I
II
m
W
1995- I
II
m
W
1996: Ir
11"
Ul>
168.4
177.9
191.9
198.2
191.9
200.6
204.2
215.8
210.4
221.2
208.6
214.1
219.4
208.3
206.4
218.5
208.4
233.6
237.4
226.4
141.8
151.2
160.8
169.5
167.9
171.3
177.6
180.8
185.8
179.9
170.8
186.9
185.5
180.6
181.0
199.8
181.5
197.7
204.5
202.0
1
Cash mark«ting receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other fann cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physieal changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year.
Livestock and
products
76.0
79.6
83.9
89.2
85.8
85.6
90.2
88.1
86.8
92.1
82.9
97.7
79.9
83.2
81.6
96.1
86.5
85.2
89.6
92.8
Crops
65.8
71.6
76.9
80.3
82.1
85.7
87.5
92.6
98.9
87.9
88.0
89.2
105.5
97.4
99.4
103.7
95.1
112.5
114.9
109.2
Value of
inventory
changes2
-2.3
-4.1
3.8
3.3
-.2
4.2
-4.5
8.2
-3.4
10.2
9.6
7.3
5.8
-4.1
-3.9
-3.0
-2.4
4.7
4.4
3.4
Production
expenses
131.0
139.9
146.7
153.4
153.3
152.5
160.5
167.4
175.6
164.5
166.8
168.8
169.6
172.4
175.4
177.5
177.0
179.0
184.2
184.4
Net farm
income
37.4
38.0
45.3
44.8
38.5
48.0
43.6
48.4
34.8
56.7
41.8
45.3
49.8
35.9
30.9
41.0
31.4
54.7
53.2
42.0
NOTE,—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.
Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to
annual data in table.
Sources: Department of Agriculture,
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the fourth quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $1.5 billion
(annual rate) and profits after tax rose $6.0 billion. Financial profits were reduced $18.0 billion to reflect a special
assessment on thrift institutions to recapitalize the Savings Association Insurance Fund.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
660
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
650
r^—_
5EA5ONAU.Y ADJUSIH) ANNUAl RATES
600
/**-/
500
450
PROFITS BEFORE TAX
y\
f
MO
350
/
/
300
250
^/
^
./
V
J
~*—"""I/
---«
-„._.__
50
s ~~ '
*
/
400
s
^* JU"
/
\m
l_-
.**
N_
_y
,•"•'
','--'
r*
"•"*"
0
1983
1984
1985
">
•J""'
,'
\
K
\
„
\
N
N
s
V
\ /
350
-
/
V
300
250
'
/•
' \/
/
-
-- -'
-
/\
•**."•
__/
1982
^
/
TAXI1ABIUTY
\
.**' **•
/ ~~
/
N
,>*
/
/
---.
450
-
200
^
500
-
s
Y\<
"- "~ "
s
s ""
s
550
-
V
s\ \s ^
^ ^
PRC FITSAFTE RTAX
r—^^1
100
600
-
A
550
150
r-J
-.s~~ •
••:.
200
/
/
""^-~
/
100
f
-
f
,
50
UN JISTRIBim D PROFIT 3
*H-LH' ' , , ,
1987
1986
1 ' '
1988
t t I
1989
150
-
/**
1
1
1
1990
f
1
1991
1
1 I 1
1 1 1
1
1992
1993
1994
1
1
iii
1 1 1
1995
1996
0
ODWJOlOf ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SCXIRCE: DEFWtlMBJT OF COMMERCE
[BiUions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment J
Profits after tax
Domestic industries
Period
Totals
Total
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996i>
1991: IV
1992: IV
Financial
Total"
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
100.5
67.9
79.4
77.7
93.9
103.2
124.8
152.8
162.6
82.2
90.3
95.3
99.2
98.4
119.9
-29.3
-17.5
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-6.6
-13.3
-28.1
'-8.9
-7.6
.2
-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0
Betail
43.0
53.1
68.6
87.4
83.7
91.0
94.4
119.1
131.9
87.6
83.1
231.2
219.6
223.8
222.1
250.3
297.2
359.3
375.0
417.0
216.1
278.1
115.1
109.3
112.3
92.7
96.3
109.7
142.7
145.7
166.5
83.8
105.1
19.3
20.4
17.2
20.6
23.0
25.5
34.5
29.6
36.6
17.0
28.3
19.6
20.7
20.6
26.1
32.2
39.2
42.2
38.7
41.8
28.6
37.3
85.7
88.1
88.8
101.3
261.2
287.6
304.3
335.4
90.4
108.4
106.0
134.0
17.9
28.6
27.0
28.7
64.9
97.8
108.4
106.4
342.1
354.6
361.5
379.0
145.3
134.2
142.8
148.4
137.0
141.3
140.5
133.4
143.0
163.8
195.3
218.7
233.0
135.2
149.7
217.3
206.8
231.2
240.8
263.4
300.5
335.9
380.2
406.8
247.6
270.6
36.3
38.1
42.4
39.8
354.3
348.1
371.7
374.2
406.4
464.3
531.2
598.9
639.9
382.8
420.3
437.0
457.6
458.0
504.5
151.5
162.6
159.3
181.7
285.6
295.0
298.6
322.8
116.8
138.9
151.9
163.1
169.5
197.3
211.0
227.4
244.2
165.3
180.4
190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9
28.8
39.5
34.3
35.4
38.3
43.2
43.7
43.6
475.5
526.0
550.8
572.4
171.4
192.8
203.4
213.5
304.1
333.3
347.4
358.8
204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5
99.7
124.5
134.9
140.3
-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8
n
m
471.6
516.2
534.3
549.6
274.3
272.6
292.5
309.5
334.0
388.1
453.7
494.1
548.9
303.6
361.2
347.0
375.7
393.1
436.8
407.0
452.4
469.9
485.5
n
m
542.6
547.3
597.9
595.3
467.5
468.2
527.1
513.7
114.3
112.6
130.4
119.3
353.2
355.6
396.7
394.4
134.7
137.8
153.2
157.3
29.7
26.4
31.2
31.2
36.0
36.6
42.5
39.6
594.5
589.6
607.2
604.2
217,3
214.2
224.5
218.7
377.2
375.3
382.8
385.5
221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7
155.5
150.8
154.3
150.8
-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8
624.8
633.5
637.6
627.9
541.6
555.1
561.0
538.0
134.9
136.6
135.0
121.3
406.7
418.5
426.1
416.7
161.3
164.7
170.6
169.4
37.5
32.8
34.5
41.5
41.7
44.3
44.5
36.7
642.2
644.6
635.6
637.1
233.4
236.4
233.4
228.9
408.8
408.1
402.2
408.2
239.9
243.1
245.2
248.7
168.9
165.1
156.9
159.5
-17.4
-11.0
2.0
••-9.2
1993- I
n
m
TV
1994- I
IV
1995- I ... .
IV
1996:
325.0
330.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
457.7
517.9
570.8
631.0
375.2
420.5
422.4
442.0
465.9
500.5
Profits
before
tax
Nonfinancial
I
n
m
TV?
1
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
2
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
3
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis-
REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
In the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)
dollars rose $10.6 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $1.2 billion. There was an increase of $17.3
billion in inventories following an increase of $34.5 billion in the third quarter.
BIUJONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOUARS
BILUONS OF CHAINED (1992] DOUARS
1,100
1,100
SEASONAILY ADJUSTS) AmjAL RATES
900
S~-1
800
700
600
500
/
r\ __yw-Or\
'
\~s
\
TIC
GRC3SSPRIVA I DOMES
INVES1MENT
1
. /
s
X
^ *- ^ ^s~-
^
900
/ *"
^
^
h^l
800
700
s
«**
600
~--~
*Y-
..
500
•4ONRESIC
F KEDIMVESTMENT
s
.„'
y
V
1,000
s'
VJ
N*
400
MO
R ESIDENT1>U
FIXE 0 INVESTSrtENT
\
\
300
•
300
-•
—
•-.„
•*•'
200
200
s'
CHANGE1NBU: INESS
IN VTENT08
\
"
100
f
"*.
- * „' ' *.
f
1
*
0
"%
'»,/
!
1
1982
1
\
*
_,\
*" —
V
*
-100
rv^-
/
1,000
\
1983
1
i i i
i i i
1 1 1
I 1 1
i i i
i i i
1 1 1 1 i i i
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
111
I 1 1
1 t 1
1992
1993
1994
•*.,%
111
1995
100
^._
0
i i l
-100
1996
COUNOt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars,- quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Fixed investment
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
1991- IV
1992: W
1993: I
n ...
in
IV
1994: I
n
in
IV ...
1995: I
n
m
IV
1996:
I
n
m
IV
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Total
Total
Producers'
durable
equipment
Besidential
Structures
826.0
861.9
817.3
737.7
790.4
857.3
979.6
1,010.2
1,057.0
762.4
812.4
818.3
832.0
805.8
741.3
783.4
836.4
921.1
975.9
1,042.1
742.0
805.8
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
766.8
539.5
569.1
196.8
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
166.3
168.8
181.1
190.0
171.4
165.6
369.2
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
427.6
484.1
534.5
578.6
368.1
403.5
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
276.7
834.8
843.2
857.6
893.5
815.4
821.1
835.4
873.5
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
167.0
164.8
165.1
168.2
933.6
984.8
994.2
1,005.9
892.4
911.4
930.8
949.7
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
1,023.7
996.8
1,015:2
1,004.9
1,011.9
1,038.6
1,093.4
1,084.1
969.5
965.7
980.0
988.5
1,013.3
1,031.1
1,057.5
1,066.6
NOTE.—See p. 10 for further tk.ta.il on fixed investment by type.
Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates
for the detailed components (lo not tubl to the ehained-doltar value of GDP or to any intermedi-
Change in business
inventories
Nonresidential
Total
Nonfarm
202.4
236.7
11.6
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.3
19.1
58.9
33.1
14.0
21.4
5.8
24.7
33.5
7.8
-1.2
1.9
26.4
46.8
37.2
17.1
19.9
7.2
410.5
421.7
428.2
449.8
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
18.5
20.8
19.5
17.4
26.0
26.7
30.9
22.1
163.0
169.0
169.1
174.3
466.4
471.1
492.5
506.5
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
40.5
74.5
64.5
56.1
29.7
54.0
50.5
53.0
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
178.5
180.0
182.8
183.2
527.2
531.7
537.4
541.4
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
54.5
30.5
33.0
14.6
57.4
33.7
38.6
19.0
743.5
750.5
781.4
792.0
186.6
184.9
188.6
199.8
558.3
567.5
595.0
593.7
271.1
281.5
277.8
276.6
-3.0
7.1
34.5
17.3
2.9
11.7
34.6
19.3
Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Residential
Nonresidential
Producers' durable equipment
Structures
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 r
1991: IV
1992: IV
1993:
I
1994:
I
1995:
I
Total
nonresidential
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
766.8
n
in
IV
n
m
IV
n
ra
IV
1996: I
n
ni .
IV'
539.5
569.1
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.5
781.4
792.0
Total1
196.8
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
166.3
168.8
181.1
190.0
171.4
165.6
167.0
164.8
165.1
168.2
163.0
169.0
169.1
174.3
178.5
180.0
182.8
183.2
186.6
184.9
188.6
199.8
Structures
Information processing
and related equipment
Nonresidential
buildings,
including
farm
Utilities
Mining
exploration,
shafts,
Total1
and
wells
145.3
150.2
152.0
126.9
113.2
112.8
117.7
127.9
134.2
116.4
109.8
111.4
110.6
112.7
116.3
112.4
117.8
117.4
123.3
125.4
126.8
129.2
130.3
131.4
129.7
133.0
142.8
Computers
and
peripheral
equipment2
Total
30.0
30.9
28.1
32.0
34.5
31.1
31.7
35.1
36.7
15.8
13.9
16.1
15.7
13.3
14.8
12.6
11.2
13.0
369.2
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
427.6
484.1
534.5
578.6
33.3
33.9
32.4
31.0
30.7
30.5
30.7
31.2
32.1
32.7
33.7
34.8
35.8
36.0
36.4
36.8
36.4
37.4
14.4
13.7
15.2
15.2
14.6
14.2
13.4
13.3
12.2
11.5
12.5
10.7
11.0
10.5
12.8
12.9
13.5
12.9
368.1
403.5
410.5
421.7
428.2
449.8
466.4
471.1
492.5
506.5
527.2
531.7
537.4
541.4
558.3
567.5
595.0
593.7
106.6
116.2
116.2
117.8
134.2
147.1
170.4
201.1
241.9
122.5
138.9
139.5
142.2
150.7
156.0
161.2
166.6
171.6
182.4
189.1
199.7
201.4
214.4
225.5
234.1
250.5
257.4
1
1ncludes other items, not shown separately.
Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.
3
Includes procJucere' durable equipment, not shown separately.
Other
24.0
29.4
29.4
32.4
43.9
56.2
69.3
91.5
132.8
36.6
47.5
51.1
52.9
58.3
62.5
64.5
67.1
69.3
76.3
80.2
88.2
91.9
105.6
117.2
126.3
138.9
148.9
85.7
88.1
88.2
85.9
90.2
91.5
102.6
114.2
122.0
86.2
91.5
88.6
89.6
93.1
94.6
97.8
100.8
103.6
108.3
111.5
115.1
114.0
116.2
118.1
119.7
125.5
124.9
Industrial
equipment
95.3
101.5
95.0
88.3
89.3
96.3
105.9
116.2
118.4
86.4
92.6
93.7
94.4
96.3
100.7
102.8
104.3
107.0
109.4
114.2
118.4
116.6
115.4
117.8
120.6
118.0
117.1
Transportation
and
related
equipment
87.1
78.9
81.2
81.7
86.2
97.5
111.7
118.1
120.0
81.6
91.5
93.0
99.5
95.0
102.7
109.0
105.3
115.8
116.6
121.9
114.9
120.3
115.4
117.5
114.9
126.5
121.1
Total
residential"
Total
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
276.7
246.3
237.0
214.5
187.6
219.5
236.3
262.1
255.8
269.6
202.4
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.5
277.8
276.6
196.6
230.5
231.7
228.5
235.7
249.2
257.0
264.8
263.5
263.2
258.9
249.6
255.3
259.3
264.1
274.3
270.6
269.4
Single
family
Multifamily
126.1
121.9
110.4
96.4
116.5
127.1
140.5
127.7
135.4
105.1
121.6
124.9
122.5
126.3
134.4
140.3
143.5
140.8
137.4
133.0
123.0
125.8
129.1
132.5
137.6
136.7
134.7
23.4
23.3
19.7
15.4
13.1
10.4
13.5
17.6
19.3
14.2
11.5
10.3
10.0
10.7
10.6
11.2
12.8
14.5
15.6
16.8
17.4
17.8
18.5
19.2
21.0
17.9
19.1
Other
96.8
91.8
84.4
75.7
89.9
98.8
108.1
110.9
115.5
77.3
97.4
96.5
96.0
98.7
104.1
105.4
108.4
108.2
110.4
109.3
109.8
112.2
112.4
113.0
116.3
116.6
116.2
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the ehained-dolfar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analy&iH.
2
BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS
[Billions of dollars]
By industry
Period
Total
expenditures
Total
Mining
and
construction
Manufacturing
488.2
31.2
134.1
66.4
549.9
547.8
36.1
153.3
78.9
1995 3
594.5
591.7
36.0
172.3
91.4
1996 4
603.4
600.7
33.6
184.8
100.2
1
Estimates
2
collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data
are scheduled for release in summer 1996.
3
Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. Final data will
be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
4
Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey.
10
Not
distributed
67.7
74.4
30.6
37.1
41.3
60.3
1.7
1.4
41.5
42.2
68.9
40.2
46.8
111.8
33.3
123.5
2.2
2.2
80.9
84.6
37.0
46.0
57.3
123.7
1.5
2.8
46.3
42.8
40.6
75.1
35.2
71.9
57.7
129.4
1.3
2.7
Total
489.7
Serving
multiple
industries
Communications
Nondurable
goods
19942 ...
Pinance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
Transportation
Durable
goods
1993'
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Utilities
Services
•¥
industry
NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.
Data for 1993fromAnnual Capital Expenditurex 1993.
The Business Investment and Plans release has been discontinued effective with release of
the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will be available
annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In February, employment fell by 150,000 and unemployment fell by 63,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS *
MILLIONS OF PERSONS *
138
138
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
~
CIVILIAN ABOR FORCE
130
-
^-
v— -^
_—^
•
130
,__**•" ~
126
126
r^^
122
_. '— **"
-
114
•M^"*"
122
..-x-"
*• "^•** ™"-^«
\
CIVILIAN
EMPLOYM! NT
- 114
110
1 10
*
12
X.
—
UNEMPLOYM NT
.
8
•
_—^- ^.
.
—
12
^—
~
—-
8
—
N^~
—
4
0 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l IlillllllLl
1989
1990
Inn
1991
1
|m,|
1992
*14 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR
| |m| Illllllllll
iniiliim
1993
1994
1995
1996
.
4
Illllllllll 0
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Civilian employment
Period
1987
1988
1989 s
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 «
1995
1996
1996: Feb
Mar
May ....
June ...
July
Sept
Oct
Dec
1997- Jan3 ...
Peb
Chilian
noninstitutional
population
NSA
182,753
184,613
186,393
189,164
190,925
192,805
194,838
196,814
198,584
200,591
199,772
199,921
200,101
200,278
200,459
200,641
200,847
201,060
201,273
201,463
201,636
202,285
202,388
Civilian
labor
force
119,865
121,669
123,869
125,840
126,346
128,105
129,200
131,056
132,304
133,943
133,070
133,464
133,427
133,759
133,709
134,165
133,898
134,291
134,636
134,831
135,022
135,848
135,634
Nonagricultural
Total
112,440
114,968
117,342
118,793
117,718
118,492
120,259
123,060
124,900
126,708
125,706
126,062
126,125
126,428
126,590
126,889
126,988
127,248
127,617
127,644
127,855
128,580
128,430
Agricultural
3,208
3,169
3,199
3,223
3,269
3,247
3,115
3,409
3,440
3,443
3,499
3,470
3,412
3,474
3,408
3,470
3,418
3,480
3,450
3,354
3,426
3,468
3,292
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons inchide slack work, material shortages, inability to find
fulltime work, etc.
"Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and
unemployment as percent of civilian labor force.
3
Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Total
109,232
111,800
114,142
115,570
114,449
115,245
117,144
119,651
121,460
123,264
122,207
122,592
122,713
122,954
123,182
123,419
123,570
123,768
124,167
124,290
124,429
125,112
125,138
Percent2
Unemployment
Part time
for
economic1
reasons
5,122
4,965
4,657
4,950
5,874
6,240
6,230
4,414
4,279
4,123
4,224
4,224
4,251
4,109
4,161
4,150
4,182
4,130
4,118
3,815
4,162
4,163
4,098
Total
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,364
7,402
7,302
7,331
7,119
7,276
6,910
7,043
7,019
7,187
7,167
7,268
7,205
15
weeks
and
over
1,983
1,610
1,375
1,525
2,357
3,408
3,094
2,860
2,363
2,316
2,322
2,406
2,387
2,354
2,353
2,326
2,273
2,277
2,294
2,184
2,179
2,155
2,163
Not in
labor
force
62,888
62,944
62,523
63,324
64,578
64,700
65,638
65,758
66,280
66,647
66,703
66,457
66,674
66,519
66,750
66,476
66,949
66,770
66,637
66,632
66,614
66,437
66,754
Labor
force
participation
rate
Employment/
population
ratio
Unemployment
rate
65.6
65.9
66.5
66.5
66.2
66.4
66.3
66.6
66.6
66.8
61.5
62.3
63.0
62.8
61.7
61.5
61.7
62.5
62.9
63.2
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
66.6
66.8
66.7
66.8
66.7
66.9
66.7
66.8
66.9
66.9
67.0
67.2
67.0
62.9
63.1
63.0
63.1
63.2
63.2
63.2
63.3
63.4
63.4
63.4
63.6
63.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
4
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire.
NOTE.—Data beginning January 1997 reflect revised population controls. See Emplamunt
O7ld £orniwl| February 1997, for details.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In February, the unemployment rate fell slightly, to 5.3 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT * (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
TEENAGERS .
(16-19)
20
15
10
10
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
1993
1997
1994
1995
1996
'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian tabor force in group)
By race
By sex and age
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
19942
1995
1996
1996: Peb
Mar
May
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
1
2
All
civilian
workers
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
Both
sexes
16-19
years
5.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
6.4
7.1
6.4
5.4
4.8
4.6
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.6
4.7
16.9
15.3
15.0
15.5
18.7
20.1
19.0
17.6
17.3
16.7
17.0
17.1
16.8
16.6
16.2
16.7
17.0
16.0
16.3
16.8
16.5
17.0
17.5
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.2
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.4
White
Revised definition; for details, see Employment and Earning*, February 1994.
Data beginning January I994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
NOTB.—Data relate to persona age 16 years and over.
12
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
Black
and
other
11.6
10.4
10.0
10.1
11.1
12.7
11.7
10.5
9.6
9.3
9.3
9.6
9.4
9.3
9.1
9.3
8.9
9.2
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.4
9.7
By selected groups
Black
Experienced
wage
and
salary
workers
13.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
12.5
14.2
13.0
11.5
10.4
10.5
10.3
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.4
10.7
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.8
11.3
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.3
6.6
7.2
6.6
5.9
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
Married
men,
spouse
present
3.9
3.3
3.0
3.4
4.4
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
Women
who
maintain
families
9.2
8.1
8.1
8.3
9.3
10.0
9.7
8.9
8.0
8.2
7.6
7.7
7.3
8.5
7.8
8.8
8.5
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.4
9.1
9.0
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Full-time
workers'
Part-time
workers*
6.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
6.9
6.4
6.2
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.2
6.0
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.6
6.0
5.9
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.7
6.0
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
PROGRAMS
In February, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27
weeks and over fell; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment
was unchanged at 16.0 weeks and the median duration rose to 8.4 weeks.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION *
PER<:ENT
70
70
DISTRIBUTION *
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
yv^\
50
JOB LOSER S-"
V-
-^v.
\
40
/'*-'•
-V-
'
REENTRANT s
30
* s
\r —•
20
JOB LEAVERS
\
10
-^-^.
•
--v""-
~—sj—
^- \
"u— ^^ •"— -™1
NEW ENTRANTS
0
i M n II i n i1 1 M il n n i n il i II 1 1 1 1
1993
1993
1994
1995
M i l 1 il 1 1 1 1
1996
iiiiiliiiii
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Duration of unemployment
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
15-26
weeks
Reason for unemployment:
.percent distribution
State
programs
Number of weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
Job
losers1
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unem-
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2
Weekly average, thousands
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992 .
1993
19943
1995
1996
1996- Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oet
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
1
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,364
7,402
7,302
7,331
7,119
7,276
6,910
7,043
7,019
7,187
7,167
7,268
7,205
43.7
46.0
48.6
46.3
40.3
35.1
36.5
34.1
36.5
36.4
37.2
35.8
34.2
37.1
35.8
36.0
36.2
35.8
35.9
38.9
37.1
39.0
36.3
29.6
30.0
30.3
32.0
32.4
29.4
28.9
30.1
31.6
31.6
31.2
31.4
32.5
31.1
31.0
31.9
31.4
31.9
31.8
31.0
32.7
31.0
33.4
12.7
12.0
11.2
11.7
14.4
15.1
14.5
15.5
14.6
14.6
14.9
15.0
15.3
14.1
14.8
13.7
14.3
14.8
14.9
14.0
13.5
13.1
14.4
14.0
12.1
9.9
10.0
12.9
20.3
20.1
20.3
17.3
17.4
16.7
17.8
18.0
17.6
18.3
18.4
18.1
17.6
17.3
16.1
16.7
16.9
15.9
Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.
Includes State {50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCPE). Railroad (RK) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not inchide Federal supplemental
compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.
3
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
2
14.5
13.5
11.9
12.0
13.7
17.7
18.0
18.8
16.6
16.7
16.6
17.2
17.3
16.9
17.2
16.9
17.2
16.9
16.7
16.0
15.8
16.0
16.0
6.5
5.9
4.8
5.3
6.8
8.7
8.3
9.2
8.3
8.3
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.4
8.1
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.3
7.7
7.8
7.7
8.4
48.0
46.1
45.7
48.1
54.4
56.1
54.2
47.7
46.9
46.6
47.9
47.3
48.3
46.4
48.0
46.4
44.9
46.0
45.1
45.3
44.4
44.8
43.7
13.0
14.7
15.7
14.8
11.6
10.4
10.9
9.9
11.1
10.7
10.1
10.5
9.9
9.4
9.9
10.5
11.2
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.7
12.3
10.9
26.6
27.0
28.2
27.4
24.8
23.8
24.6
34.8
34.1
34.7
33.8
34.2
34.0
36.8
34.4
35.0
35.8
34.7
35.4
35.1
35.3
34.6
36.6
12.4
12.2
10.4
9.8
9.2
9.7
10.3
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.4
7.7
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.2
8.1
8.6
8.3
8.9
2,300
2,081
2,158
2,522
3,342
3,245
2,751
2,670
2,575
2,594
2,652
2,639
2,584
2,554
2,573
2,535
2,524
2,468
2,470
2,444
2,518
2,453
2,374
328
310
330
388
447
408
341
340
357
356
369
389
356
349
355
334
325
335
334
338
355
334
311
2,369
2,135
2,205
2,575
3,406
3,348
2,845
2,739
2,636
2,649
3,333
3,161
2,934
2,352
2,383
2,550
2,254
2,184
2,046
2,104
2,740
3,502
NOTS.T—Data relate to persons age 16 years of age and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims).
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). -
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by ttte payroll survey rose by 339,000 in February.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
130
36
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
120
V
SERVICES
110
90
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
80
RETAIL TRADE
-
Illlll
MANUFACTURING
GOC3DS-PRODUC NG
INDUSTRIES
30 —
—
\
CONSTRUCTION
20 Minium 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 11 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 II 1 1 1 1 II 1ill 1 1 II 1 1 ! |
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Illllllllll Illlll
Illllmil
1993
^
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Thousands of wage and salary workers;* seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries
Goods-producing industries
Total
nonagricultural
employment
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
. .
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 r
1996- Feb
Mar
Apr
May
July
Sept
Oct .
Dec'
1997- Jan r
Feb<>
101,958
105,210
107,895
109,419
108,256
108,604
110,730
114,172
117,203
119,554
118,579
118,750
118,922
119,332
119,537
119,772
120,052
120,050
120,311
120,492
120,723
120,970
121,309
Manufacturing
Total 2
24,674
25,125
25,254
24,905
23,745
23,231
23,352
23,908
24,206
24,259
24,254
24,196
24,209
24,263
24,274
24,264
24,298
24,257
24,284
24,319
24,356
24,389
24,498
Construction
4,958
5,098
5,171
5,120
4,650
4,492
4,668
4,986
5,158
5,407
5,349
5,341
5,353
5,384
5,401
5,427
5,437
5,449
5,464
5,491
5,520
5,535
5,644
Total
18,999
19,314
19,391
19,076
18,406
18,104
18,075
18,321
18,468
18,282
18,332
18,281
18,283
18,303
18,298
18,267
18,291
18,241
18,254
18,262
18,270
18,286
18,284
NonDurable durable
goods
goods
11,154
11,363
11,394
11,109
10,569
10,277
10,221
10,448
10,654
10,676
10,659
10,623
10,654
10,679
10,696
10,680
10,711
10,675
10,684
10,694
10,710
10,730
10,735
7,845
7,951
7,997
7,968
7,837
7,827
7,854
7,873
7,814
7,606
7,673
7,658
7,629
7,624
7,602
7,587
7,580
7,566
7,570
7,568
7,560
7,556
7,549
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments
who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes
proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total
in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes,
bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for tiie time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
14
Total
77,284
80,086
82,642
84,514
84,511
85,373
87,378
90,264
92,997
95,296
94,325
94,554
94,713
95,069
95,263
95,508
95,754
95,793
96,027
96,173
96,367
96,581
96,811
Transportation and
public
utilities
5,362
5,514
5,625
5,793
5,762
5,721
5,829
5,993
6,165
6,316
6,270
6,292
6,294
6,309
6,329
6,333
6,342
6,337
6,338
6,350
6,340
6,374
6,395
Wholesale
trade
5,848
6,030
6,187
6,173
6,081
5,997
5,981
6,162
6,412
6,587
6,529
6,548
6,550
6,567
6,575
6,585
6,603
6,619
6,643
6,651
6,655
6,662
6,683
Retail
trade
18,422
19,023
19,475
19,601
19,284
19,356
19,773
20,507
21,173
21,597
21,340
21,350
21,415
21,485
21,568
21,671
21,672
21,702
21,803
21,857
21,931
21,929
21,978
Finance,
insurance, Services
and real
estate
6,533
6,630
6,668
6,709
6,646
6,602
6,757
6,896
6,830
6,977
6,919
6,931
6,942
6,964
6,967
6,987
6,999
7,009
7,026
7,038
7,052
7,065
7,078
24,110
25,504
26,907
27,934
28,336
29j052
30,197
31,579
33,107
34,359
33,902
34,039
34,117
34,285
34,378
34,448
34,532
34,607
34,709
34,780
34,865
35,001
35,081
Government
Total
17,010
17,386
17,779
18,304
18,402
18,645
18,841
19,128
19,310
19,461
19,365
19,394
19,395
19,459
19,446
19,484
19,606
19,519
19,508
19,497
19,524
19,550
19,596
Federal
2,943
2,971
2,988
3,085
2,966
2,969
2,915
2,870
2,822
2,757
2,780
2,780
2,776
2,776
2,756
2,752
2,739
2,739
2,731
2,733
2,729
2,726
2,723
employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job
are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where
persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Note.—Data for March 1996-August 1996 were revised in October 1996 to reflect revised
seasonal adjustment factors..
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTUHA1 INDUSTRIES
(For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
1987 ..
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996: Feb
Mar
May
JnJy
. ..
Sept
Oct
Nov
Decr
1997: Jan'
PebP
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.5
34.3
34.4
34.5
34.7
34.5
34.4
34.5
34.5
34.3
34.2
34.7
34.2
34.4
34.7
34.3
34.6
34.8
34.2
35.0
Total
41.0
41.1
41.0
40.8
40.7
41.0
41.4
42.0
41.6
41.6
41.4
41.3
41.5
41.7
41.8
41.6
41.7
41.7
41.7
41.7
42.0
41.7
41.9
Total private
nonagricultiiral *
Total private
nonagricultural '
Manufacturing
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Period
Average gross weekly earnings
Average gross hourly earnings
Average weekly hours
Overtime
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.7
Current
dollars
$8.98
9.28
9.66
10.01
10.32
10.57
10.83
11.12
11.44
11.82
11.65
11.68
11.72
11.74
11.83
11.81
11.87
11.91
11.90
11.99
12.04
12.06
12.09
1982
dollars2
Manufacturing
$7.73
7.69
7.64
7.52
7.45
7.41
7.39
7.40
7.40
7.43
7.41
7.40
7.40
7.40
7.45
7.42
7.45
7.45
7.41
7.45
7.46
7.46
7.47
$9.91
10.19
10.48
10.83
11.18
11.46
11.74
12.07
12.37
12.78
12.56
12.55
12.74
12.73
12.77
12.79
12.89
12.87
12.88
12.94
12.99
13.03
13.02
Percent eh ange from
a year ear ier, total
private
agrieul ural :i
Current dollars
Current
dollars
1982
dollars2
Manufacturing
Construction
Ketail
trade
$312.50
322.02
334.24
345.35
353.98
363.61
373.64
385.86
394.68
406.61
401.93
402.96
402.00
401.51
410.50
403.90
408.33
413.28
408.17
414.85
418.99
412.45
423.15
$269.16
266.79
264.22
259.47
255.40
254.99
254.87
256.73
255.29
255.73
255.68
255.36
253.95
253.00
258.50
253.71
256.17
258.46
254.31
257.67
259.60
255.23
261.37
$406.31
418.81
429.68
441.86
455.03
469.86
486.04
506.94
514.59
531.65
519.98
518.31
528.71
530.84
533.79
532.06
537.51
536.68
537.10
539.60
545.58
543.35
545.54
$480.44
495.73
513.17
526.01
533.40
537.70
553.63
573.00
585.10
600.23
604.63
589.79
594.39
581.78
595.98
598.30
599.46
599.46
603.34
604.90
607.61
594.59
615.43
$178.70
183.62
188.72
194.40
198.48
205.06
209.95
216.46
221.47
229.82
226.08
227.73
225.94
228.38
232.00
227.66
230.69
231.49
232.18
235.77
235.82
234.77
241.90
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
-1.8
-1.6
-.2
-.0
.7
-.6
.2
.0
.3
-.3
.6
1.8
-.4
.7
1.4
-.5
.6
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.5
3.0
3.8
3.3
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.3
2.3
3.0
2.7
3.1
2.6
3.6
4.6
2.5
3.5
4.4
2.5
3.9
5.1
5.0
5.0
3
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
NOTE.—See Note, p. 14.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
^Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and
clerical workers (CPI-W) {on a 1982=100 base).
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
Index (June 1989 = 100)
Percent change from
3 months earlier
Period
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
Benefits '
93.1
97.6
102.3
107.0
111.7
115.6
119.8
123.5
126.7
130.6
94.1
98.0
102.0
106.1
110.0
112.9
116.4
119.7
123.1
127.3
90.5
96.7
102.6
109.4
116.2
122.2
128.3
133.0
135.9
138.6
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.5
124.4
125.3
126.1
126.9
127.8
128.8
129.6
130.6
117.2
118.1
119.0
119.7
120.6
121.5
122.4
123.2
124.5
125.6
126.4
127.3
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
12 months earlier
Benefits *
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
3.3
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.1
2.6
3.1
3.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.4
Benefits '
Not seasonally adjusted
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
.
Seasonally adjusted
1994- Mar
Sept
Dec
1995- Mar
Sept
Dec
1996: Mar
Sept
Dec
1
Employer costs for employee benefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free
from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
130.3
131.5
132.9
133.6
133.8
134.6
135.4
136.1
136.0
136.9
137.8
138.8
0.8
.8
.8
.6
.7
.7
.6
.7
.7
.8
.6
.8
3.4
6.9
6.1
6.6
6.2
5.2
5.0
3.7
2.2
2.0
Not seasonally adjusted
0.6
.8
.8
.6
.8
.7
.7
.7
1.1
.9
.6
.7
1.1
.9
1.1
.5
.1
.6
.6
.6
-.1
.7
.7
.7
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.4
4.4
3.9
4.0
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
Data exclude farm and household workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of alt
persons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfanii
business
sector
Business
sector
Compensation per
hour"
Hours of all
persons2
Output '
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real compensation
per lour4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit tabor
costs
Business
sector
Implicit price
deflator5
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarni
business
sector
Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996r* .
1993- I
n
m
IV
1994- I
n
in
IV
1995- I
n
m ....
IV ....
1996- I
n
m
TV-*
96.5
99.9
102.5
102.7
100.2
100.0
102.8
106.3
108.9
111.2
79.9
83.5
85.8
90.7
95.1
100.0
102.5
104.5
107.8
111.8
80.2
83.6
85.9
90.6
95.1
100.0
102.3
104.3
107.7
111.6
98.7
99.0
97.1
97.4
97.9
100.0
99.5
99.0
99.2
100.0
99.1
99.2
97.1
97.3
97.9
100.0
99.3
98.8
99.1
99.8
84.9
88.3
90.0
94.4
98.3
100.0
102.3
103.8
106.9
109.9
84.7
87.8
89.7
94.2
98.1
100.0
102.1
103.7
106.7
109.8
83.8
86.8
90.5
94.0
97.7
100.0
102.5
104.7
107.1
108.9
83.5
86.4
90.0
93.8
97.6
100.0
102.5
104.9
107.2
108.8
101.6
102.2
103.3
104.7
96.8
100.0
102.5
102.6
100.2
100.0
102.5
106.2
108.8
110.9
101.3
102.3
102.9
103.5
101.4
102.6
103.2
103.9
101.7
102.3
102.8
103.3
101.5
102.0
102.5
103.0
99.6
99.5
99.6
99.3
99.5
99.3
99.3
99.0
101.5
102.6
102.9
102.4
101.4
102.4
102.4
102.2
101.7
102.3
102.7
103.3
101.8
102.4
102.7
103.3
104.9
106.7
107.7
108.7
104.9
106.7
107.8
108.8
104.4
106.0
106.6
107.6
104.6
106.1
106.7
107.6
104.0
104.2
104.7
105.5
103.8
104.1
104.5
105.4
'99.4
99.0
98.6
'98.7
99.2
98.9
98.4
'98.6
103.6
103.6
103.6
104.4
103.4
103.5
103.5
104.2
103.9
104.4
105.1
105.6
103.9
104.5
105.3
105.7
100.5
100.9
101.3
101.1
108.8
109.0
110.3
110.4
109.0
109.2
110.6
110.7
108.4
108.2
109.0
109.3
108.4
108.3
109.1
109.5
106.2
107.3
108.3
109.4
106.2
107.2
108.2
109.3
98.7
'99.0
99.3
99.8
98.7
'98.9
'99.3
99.6
105.8
106.5
107.0
108.3
105.6
106.3
106.8
108.1
106.4
106.9
107.5
107.8
106.5
107.1
107.5
107.8
101.5
101.7
101.7
102.0
111.2
112.6
113.2
114.6
111.4
112.8
113.3
114.7
109.6
110.6
111.1
112.1
109.8
110.9
111.4
112.5
110.3
111.4
112.5
113.5
110.2
111.3
112.2
113.2
'99.7
99.9
100.2
100.3
'99.6
'99.8
99.9
100.0
108.6
109.4
110.4
111.0
108.5
109.4
110.3
111.0
108.2
108.8
109.2
109.5
108.1
108.7
109.0
109.3
94.1
94.6
95.3
96.1
96.7
100.0
100.2
100.7
100.8
101.8
94.6
95.2
95.7
96.2
96.9
100.0
100.2
100.7
100.9
101.6
91.1
94.6
97.8
98.7
96.9
100.0
102.7
107.0
109.6
112.9
91.4
95.1
98.1
98.8
97.1
100.0
102.9
107.0
109.9
113.0
100.2
99.8
100.0
100.9
100.1
99.7
100.1
100.8
101.4
102.1
102.8
104.5
100.5
100.6
101.1
101.1
100.4
100.8
101.2
101.0
100.3
100.6
101.0
101.1
101.5
101.8
101.9
102.2
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1987
1988
1989 . . .
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '*
-0.2
.5
.8
.8
.6
3.4
.2
.5
.1
1.0
-0.3
.6
.5
.5
.7
3.2
.2
.5
.3
.7
2.9
3.8
3.4
.9
-1.8
3.2
2.7
4.2
2.5
3.0
3.0
4.1
3.2
.7
-1.8
3.0
2.9
4.0
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.3
2.5
.1
-2.3
-.2
2.5
3.7
2.4
2.0
3.2
3.5
2.6
.2
-2.5
o
2^8
3.5
2.4
2.2
3.8
4.5
2.8
5.7
4.8
5.2
2.5
1.9
3.1
3.8
3.7
4.3
2.7
5.5
4.9
5.2
2.3
2.1
3.2
3.6
1993- I
m.
-3.5
-1.6
.8
3.8
-3.8
-1.8
1.7
2.8
-1.2
2.5
3.0
6.5
-.9
2.7
4.1
5.5
2.4
4.2
2.2
2.6
3.0
4.6
2.4
2.6
1.9
2.6
2.0
2.0
n
in
-1.7
.5
1.9
.2
-1.8
1.0
1.7
.4
1.7
6.9
4.1
3.8
.8
7.0
4.2
4.0
3.5
6.4
2.1
3.6
2.7
6.0
2.4
3.6
-2.6
1.4
1.4
-.6
-2.3
1.5
1.8
l.Ll
.3
.7
4.8
.5
.6
.9
5.0
.3
3.0
-.7
3.3
1.1
2.1
1.2
.3
1.2
1.9
.6
0
1.1
3.0
5.0
2.2
4.8
2.7
4.8
1.9
5.0
.8
3.8
1.9
3.6
n
IV
1994: I
IV
1995- I
II
in
IV
1996- I
n
m
IV'*
1
Output
2
1n
0.1
.1
-2.1
.1
.7
2.1
-.7
-.5
.3
.7
4.0
4.0
1.9
4.9
4.2
1.7
2.3
1.4
3.0
2.8
4.0
3.7
2.1
5.0
4.2
1.9
2.1
1.5
2.9
2.9
2.7
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.9
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.3
1.6
2.6
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.2
1.5
1.3
2.1
1.8
2.0
-1.0
-1.6
-.3
-.8
.1
-.1
'-1.3 '-1.2
5.6
4.3
1.2
-1.8
5.2
4.0
.1
-.7
3.5
2.5
1.3
2.4
3.8
2.1
1.2
2.5
2.8
.7
2.0
2.9
2.9
1.3
1.8
3.3
4.6
.2
.1
2.8
4.9
.3
.1
2.9
2.4
1.8
2.7
2.0
2.5
2.2
2.9
1.9
2.9
-.6
3.2
1.5
2.8
4.1
3.6
4.3
2.9
4.0
3.7
4.0
'.7
.9
'-1.6 '-1.1
-1.7
-1.9
'.4
'.8
'.1
'.2
'.9
'.9
1.5
'1.5
'1.8
'1.5
5.6
2.6
2.1
5.0
5.3
2.5
1.9
5.2
3.0
2.2
2.0
1.0
3.0
2.0
1.7
.9
.8
4.1
1.9
3.9
3.2
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.9
3.3
3.6
'.1
'.5
'.7
.2
1.1
3.1
3.4
2.5
1.5
3.3
3.3
2.5
1.5
2.4
1.3
1.1
1.4
2.1
1.2
1.2
refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers.
Estimates
based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for
the self-employed.
4
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPIII).5 Seasonally adjusted CPI-U data revised beginning 1992.
Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index.
16
0.2
.3
-2.0
.3
.6
2.1
-.5
-.6
.3
.8
'-.1
'.9
'1.1
.4
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
* Data based on GDP data released February 28, 1997. Other data for 1996: IV shown elsewhere in this issue were released March 28, 1997.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in February. Capacity utilization rose slightly.
INDEX, 1992 « 100* (RATIO SCALE)
140
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
. 130
INDEX, 1992 - 100- (RATIO SCALE)
150
FINAL PRODUCTS
140
—^~~
III
1 1111
MANUFACTURING
130
DURABLE
A —sf
120
'"
"'
1 1 M 1 11 1 1 M
Mill
HIM
DEFENSE
AND SPACE
EQUIPMENT
|
86
UTILITIES
,
n n 11n M i
,-'•••'•-,.
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1u
_IHLI 111 1 1 1
82
80
100
1 11 1 1 I 1 M 1 1
1994
Mil
1 M II III
1 II
n 1 11 1 1 1 11
1995 1 1996
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)
84
\
/ v 'I'"'"1 ''*
'-' MINING
~^_,s
- \ /»
1993
\
PERCENT *
130
It 1 1 Ml 1 1 1
N
7
>0
1 1 1 11
! 1 1 11 Mill
UTIUTIES AND MINING
^
.-
\
80
140
120
GOODS
\
funNmipARiF
1 1 n I II li M
\
100 ^^'
-._.
---—**'
100 —
,- -
90
*,
^^\
110
^/
110
1 1 1 1 1 M M M i i n M inn t u n 1 1 1 1 1
140
s
fS^
120
110
100
BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT
130
120
Mill
78
-/\
^-^-^r s^^
)1M1i
linn
1993
1997
\
*
1994
"~^xv^v~^1
-
Illlll n 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i
1995
Illllllllll
1996
1997
(XXJNC3.Of ECONOMK ADVBERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total industrial production
Industry production indexes, 1992=100
Manufacturing
Percent change '
Period
Index,
1992=100
93.1
97.3
99.0
98.9
96.9
100.0
103.4
108.6
112.1
115.2
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
.-.
. .
..
1996: Feb
Sept
Oet
Nov
Decr
113.8
113.2
114.3
114.8
115.5
115.5
115.8
116.0
116.2
117.2
117.7
1997: Jan'
FebP
117.6
118.1
May
June
July
Angr , , , , , , L ;
1
2
1
-,,,
,,
L
L
Percent changes based on unrounded indexes.
Output as percent of capacity.
From
preceding
month
1.3
-.5
.9
.4
.6
.0
.3
.1
.2
.8
.4
-.1
.5
Prom
year
earlier
Capacity utilization
rate, percent2
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Mining
Utilities
Total
industry
Manufacturing
4.6
4.4
1.8
-.2
-2.0
3.2
3.4
5.0
3.3
2.8
92.8
97.1
99.0
98.5
96.2
100.0
103.7
109.4
113.2
116.3
92.0
98.1
100.5
99.0
95.5
100.0
105.5
113.4
119.7
125.7
93.8
96.0
97.3
97.9
97.0
100.0
101.7
105.0
106.2
106.3
101.5
102.9
101.5
103.7
101.6
100.0
98.9
101.5
100.9
103.0
89.4
93.9
97.1
98.3
100.4
100.0
103.9
105.3
109.1
112.8
81.3
83.9
84.0
82.3
79.2
80.4
81.6
83.7
83.8
83.1
81.3
83.8
83.6
81.4
78.0
79.5
80.8
83.1
83.1
82.1
1.9
1.4
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.4
2.9
2.6
3.3
4.0
4.4
114.8
113.9
115.2
115.7
116.4
117.0
117.2
117.4
117.6
118.5
119.2
123.6
121.8
124.6
125.2
126.3
126.9
127.5
127.2
127.1
128.4
128.9
105.3
105.4
105.2
105.5
105.9
106.4
106.2
106.9
107.4
107.9
108.8
100.8
102.8
102.9
103.2
104.4
103.1
104.5
103.4
103.4
103.5
105.0
113.3
114.4
113.5
114.6
114.0
109.4
110.8
111.1
111.9
114.5
112.7
83.2
82.6
83.1
83.2
83.5
83.2
83.2
83.1
83.0
83.4
83.5
82.2
81.3
82.0
82.0
82.3
82.4
82.3
82.1
82.0
82.4
82.5
4.6
3.8
118.9
119.8
128.9
130.5
108.1
108.5
104.3
105.6
114.1
110.1
83.2
83.3
82.1
82.5
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Products
Materials
Final products
Intermediate products
Equipment
Consumer goods
Period
Total
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total'
Business
Defense
and
space
equipment
Construction
supplies
Business
supplies
Total
Energy
Total
Sept
Oct
NoVr
Dec
93.2
97.6
99.7
99.4
97.5
100.0
103.2
107.1
109.9
112.8
111.7
111.1
112.1
112.2
113.1
113.4
113.0
113.3
113.6
114.8
115.3
93.7
96.7
97.7
97.3
97.0
100.0
103.2
107.4
108.9
110.5
109.9
109.4
109.8
110.0
110.8
110.7
110.1
110.5
110.8
112.3
112.7
93.9
99.8
101.3
98.0
93.0
100.0
110.1
120.4
122.8
126.2
124.7
120.8
125.7
126.9
129.9
129.7
128.0
127.1
124.5
127.1
128.5
93.6
95.9
96.7
97.1
98.1
100.0
101.5
104.1
105.3
106.5
106.2
106.6
105.9
105.8
106.0
106.0
105.6
106.3
107.3
108.5
108.8
92.7
99.1
103.0
102.7
98.4
100.0
103.0
106.6
111.6
116.8
114.8
113.9
115.9
116.0
117.1
118.1
117.9
118.1
118.4
119.0
119.5
85.1
93.5
98.8
98.2
95.7
100.0
105.1
111.3
119.4
126.6
124.6
122.6
125.1
125.0
126.6
128.1
127.7
128.3
128.8
129.8
130.5
117.5
117.1
117.4
115.9
106.7
100.0
93.5
86.2
80.7
77.0
76.4
77.6
77.4
77.9
77.0
77.7
77.9
77.7
77.0
76.1
76.3
100.7
102.5
102.9
101.9
97.5
100.0
102.5
106.1
107.5
109.4
108.1
108.5
107.7
108.9
109.7
108.9
110.0
110.6
110.2
111.9
111.4
104.7
106.3
105.5
102.9
96.2
100.0
103.3
110.3
111.6
116.8
113.3
115.5
114.2
116.1
118.3
117.5
119.2
119.8
117.7
120.7
118.1
98.4
100.3
101.3
101.4
98.3
100.0
102.0
103.6
105.0
105.1
105.0
104.3
103.9
104.6
104.6
103.9
104.6
105.3
105.8
106.8
107.4
90.4
95.1
97.0
97.2
95.9
100.0
103.9
111.3
116.6
120.3
118.5
117.7
119.5
120.1
120.5
120.5
121.5
1215
121.7
122.2
123.1
96.2
98.5
99.5
100.6
100.8
100.0
99.6
101.4
102.7
103.9
103.5
104.5
104.2
104.6
104.8
102.4
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.0
104.2
1997- Jan'
FebP
115.3
115.8
112.1
112.1
127.2
128.8
108.3
108.0
120.7
122.2
131.8
133.3
75.4
75.8
111.3
111.8
118.1
119.7
107.3
107.1
122.7
123.3
104.1
102.9
1987 .
1988
1989 .
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
]996r
1996: Peb
.
.
.
.
Mar
Mav
"Lay
Juhr
1
•
.
Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.
[1992=* 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Period
Primary metals
Fabricated
metal
products
Industrial
machinery and
equipment
Electrical
machinery
Nondurable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
Total
Iron
and
steel
Sept
Oct
NoV
Dec'
97.8
106.2
104.9
104.0
96.7
100.0
105.5
113.0
115.7
117.2
114.6
115.6
116.1
116.3
117.0
118.0
118.3
119.5
122.1
118.5
119.2
95.4
107.6
106.2
106.4
96.0
100.0
107.1
113.2
116.3
116.4
113.9
113.8
114.6
115.7
117.1
118.0
118.2
117.4
123.2
115.9
116.8
101.9
106.1
104.8
101.2
96.2
100.0
104.4
112.0
115.7
118.6
117.9
117.6
117.8
118.4
118.9
119.1
119.4
119.3
119.3
119.1
119.6
86.0
97.0
103.0
100.1
95.4
100.0
109.9
125.3
141.4
156.4
151.4
152.5
153.3
154.3
156.1
157.7
159.6
159.4
159.9
161.7
162.6
75.6
82.5
85.8
87.7
89.6
100.0
110.0
126.3
148.2
163.3
161.0
160.3
161.1
161.8
164.0
163.8
164.6
165.2
165.6
167.2
168.9
96.1
101.1
105.1
102.3
96.5
100.0
103.7
107.4
105.0
106.1
104.4
94.9
106.4
106.8
107.1
109.5
109.3
107.3
105.3
109.5
109.6
94.9
100.2
101.2
95.3
88.5
100.0
113.7
129.7
128.5
126.9
127.4
106.8
130.3
130.5
130.4
134.1
132.8
127.0
121.2
128.9
127.9
104.9
105.1
104.3
101.6
94.5
100.0
100.9
105.9
106.2
109.8
106.3
109.7
110.3
110.4
112.4
109.3
111.4
110.7
109.2
113.1
109.2
105.5
103.6
100.3
97.2
97.8
100.0
102.4
106.5
103.3
98.2
99.2
98.1
99.0
99.0
99.0
98.3
98.5
98.2
97.8
97.3
97.2
102.5
103.4
103.5
103.1
99.1
100.0
100.8
100.5
99.8
98.4
99.2
97.6
96.9
97.9
97.1
97.6
97.9
99.1
99.7
100.0
99.8
87.0
92.2
95.1
97.3
96.4
100.0
101.0
104.1
106.5
108.9
107.0
106.6
106.9
107.2
107.9
109.0
108.7
109.7
111.3
111.8
113.6
93.5
94.9
95.9
97.0
98.4
100.0
102.1
103.7
105.7
106.3
105.7
106.2
105.9
105.6
106.1
106.5
105.5
106.2
107.1
107.6
108.6
1997: Jan'
Feb'
117.8
120.5
114.7
119.1
118.8
120.3
164.1
165.8
167.7
170.7
111.1
112.2
130.4
131.4
109.4
111.0
95.9
95.4
99.1
99.6
113.3
113.3
108.5
109.0
1987
1988 .
1989 .
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
1996- Peb
Mar
May
July
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Total
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
.
Period
Construction contracts3
Private
Federal
and
Residential
Total new
construction
expenditures
Total
New housing
units
Total1
Commercial
and industrial2
State
Other
Total value
index
(1992=100)
and
local
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
Billions of dollars
194.7
198.1
196.6
182.9
157.8
187.8
210.5
238.9
236.6
246.9
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
441.6
455.6
469.8
468.5
424.2
452.1
482.7
527.1
547.1
568.9
351.0
360.9
371.6
361.1
314.1
336.2
362.6
400.0
410.2
427.8
1996- Feb
Mar
Dee'
544.6
557.0
564.6
558.5
563,1
559.3
564.7
572.3
582.5
594.0
588.1
411.2
419.7
424.2
418.1
423.1
419.3
426.7
428.4
437.0
446.1
445.4
238.6
245.9
248.0
247.5
246.9
244.9
246.0
246.4
246.9
249.2
250.3
1997- Jan'
Feb*
590.1
603.8
448.0
456.0
250.6
253.7
52.0
532
57.1
58.8
62.6
66.2
67.7
67.8
66.6
69.5
90.6
94.7
98.2
107.5
110.1
115.8
120.2
127.1
136.9
141.1
103
104
108
98
92
100
108
117
122
130
166.9
173.8
179.3
178.2
177.7
175.6
176.5
176.2
176.6
177.4
176.7
107.4
106.4
108.1
103.1
109.2
107.7
110.9
112.4
119.7
121.8
117.4
65.2
67.4
68.2
67.5
67.0
66.7
69.7
69.6
70.4
75.1
77.8
133.3
137.3
140.4
140.4
140.0
140.0
138.0
143.9
145.5
148.0
142.7
'119
131
134
133
131
'135
137
132
126
130
125
657
'724
'714
'838
'720
'635
'710
'781
682
774
779
177.2
181.6
121.3
123.8
76.0
78.4
142.1
147.9
123
124
764
Annual rates
Annual rates
May
July
Sept
Oct'
1
1,019
973
961
783
577
556
589
744
862
829
104.4
109.6
118.0
119.4
93.7
82.2
84.4
93.3
107.0
111.4
139.9
138.9
139.2
128.0
110.6
129.6
144.1
167.9
162.9
176.4
Sources; Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGn r-Hill Companies,
Inc., P.W. Dodge Division.
Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
hotels and motels.
P.W. Dodge series.
2
Includes
3
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes
New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure
Period
Total
1,620.5
1,488.1
1,376.1
1,192.7
1,013.9
1,199.7
1,287.6
1,457.0
1,354.1
1,476.8
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1 unit
1,146.4
1,081.3
1,003.3
894.8
840.4
1,029.9
1,125.7
1,198.4
1,076.2
1,160.9
2—4 units
5 or more
units
65.3
58.8
55.2
37.5
35.6
30.7
29.4
35.0
33.7
45.2
408.7
348.0
317.6
260.4
137.9
139.0
132.6
223.5
244.1
270.8
Units
authorized
1,534.8
1,455.6
1,338.4
1,110.8
948.8
1,094.9
1,199.1
3
1,371.6
1,332.5
1,433.7
Units
completed
Homes
sold
Homes for
sale at end
of period 1
1,668.8
1,529.8
1,422.8
1,308.0
1,090.8
1,157.5
1,192.7
1,346.9
1,312.6
1,412.1
671
676
650
534
509
610
666
670
667
757
366
368
365
321
284
265
293
336
370
322
Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent)2
7.7
7.7
7.4
7.2
7.4
7.4
2
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.8
2
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec'
1,520
1,429
1,522
1,476
1,488
1,492
1,515
1,470
1,407
1,486
1,353
1,188
1,156
1,215
1,142
1,214
1,164
1,222
1,148
1,104
1,133
1,024
35
24
55
48
46
44
37
45
58
60
48
297
249
252
286
228
284
256
277
245
293
281
1,417
1,423
1,459
1,452
1,415
1,457
1,423
1,399
1,362
1,418
1,422
1,329
1,382
1,351
1,409
1,426
1,463
1,449
1,356
1,375
1,431
1,469
778
711
741
732
732
782
814
768
706
'788
789
354
367
368
362
355
352
343
331
330
327
322
1997- Jan'
Feb/>
1,362
1,528
1,117
1,215
41
48
204
265j
1,400
1,444
1,324
817
811
316
312
1 QQfi- FVH
Mar
, ay
July
1
Seasonally adjusted
2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993
data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
3
The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.
7.9
7.8
8.0
7.7
NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units
authorized are for 17,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In January, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.1 percent and inventories rose $3.2 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.8 percent in February following a rise of 1.5 percent in January.
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
400
,ZUU
,100
350
,000
900
^~~
r"\
MA
—
800
300
NUFACTURING AND
TRADE INVENT DRIES
RETAIL INVENTORIES
1
700
250
___-
—f-~ '
••IUFACTURINC-,
AN >TRADESALE S
•'
600
MA
200
\
RETAIL SALES
500
150
RATIO *
400
1.80
INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
1.70
RETAIL
1.60
300
/U..
1.50
II 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1
1993
ii in in n
1 1 1 1 1 I 1 II M
1994
1995
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 E 1 1 i mill! in
1996
I
1.30
ANDTRADE
1993
1994
1995
2
Sales
Inventories3
1
1997
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Retail
Wholesale
2
Sales2
Inventories3
Durable
goods
stores
Total
Inventory-sales
ratio4
3
Sales
Period
I
M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M H M H I 1 1 M M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n il M 1 1 1
1997
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE OffiAKTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufacturing and
trade i
,--
r\^_ MANUFACTURING
I^^K'"^
1.40
200
,.^'^-^\\
V
_/
Inventories
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade1
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 .
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 r
1996- Jan'
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
July
Sept . .
Oct
Nov
Dec'
1997:
Jan*Feb^
47,989
52,430
54,763
55,736
54,165
58,634
64,795
73,042
78,018
83,936
207,836
219,047
237,234
239,773
243,275
251,994
267,916
290,602
302,856
313,713
105,481
112,453
121,347
121,105
119,039
122,948
133,949
150,441
160,481
167,115
102,355
106,594
115,887
118,668
124,236
129,046
133,967
140,161
142,375
146,598
1.50
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.53
1.48
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.40
1.55
1.54
1.58
1.55
1.54
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.54
1.51
199,132
256,185
255,569 '202,840
256,444 204,228
259,592 204,031
258,834 205,669
259,262 204,366
259,100 204,719
258,822 204,599
256,959 206,127
257,770 207,487
257,929 207,324
258,106 208,319
80,556
118,576
'83,043 '119,797
84,108
120,120
82,794
121,237
84,053 121,616
83,472
120,894
83,539
121,180
83,536 121,063
84,189
121,938
84,881
122,606
84,604
122,720
84,945
123,374
303,912
304,824
302,153
303,397
303,930
304,192
308,858
310,926
312,771
315,357
313,616
313,713
160,866
161,575
159,659
160,490
161,156
161,489
164,086
166,282
167,916
169,830
167,534
167,115
143,046
143,249
142,494
142,907
142,774
142,703
144,772
144,644
144,855
145,527
146,082
146,598
1.44
'1.43
1.42
1.41
1.39
1.40
1.39
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.53
1.50
1.48
1.49
1.48
1.49
1.51
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.51
1.51
260,801 '211,456
213,175
'86,179 '125,277
87,595
125,580
312,161
165,523
146,638
1.38
1.48
122,968
134,521
143,760
149,506
148,306
154,150
161,681
172,973
187,387
199,799
163,903
178,801
187,009
195,550
200,062
207,663
215,878
234,893
254,963
258,106
994,821
996,008
994,010
998,430
996,984
997,322
1,002,404
1,005,435
1,006,430
1,011,261
1,010,916
1,009,741
192,681
194,053
195,379
197,507
198,258
198,543
202,057
200,086
201,404
202,790
203,932
203,835
735,744 1,012,981
205,790
690,498
'698,656
700,253
709,541
715,130
711,760
719,176
717,532
722,691
725,787
728,804
727,432
128,442
138,017
146,581
153,718
154,661
162,632
172,924
185,936
195,068
205,451
80,453
85,587
91,818
97,981
100,497
103,999
108,129
112,894
117,050
121,514
457,735 709,846
767,226
497,157
527,039 815,486
545,909 840,428
542,815 834,281
567,176
842,137
595,240 874,515
637,561 931,702
679,700 990,163
715,186 1,009,741
1
3
2
1
See page 21 for manufacturing.
Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month.
20
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratio*
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In February, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders all rose.
BIUJONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCAIE)
BMIONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCAl£|
480
INVbNIOWbS
440
400 — .
360
320 h- SHIPMENTS .
280
TOTAL
240
"~
-—-r—— 1
amiMKSHw—•
\
320
200
280
DURABLE GOODS
"<~
,.._
240
160
\
DURABLEGOODs
200
—J-\
120
1<50
NONDURABLE GOODS
NON DURABIEGGODS
120
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' |RATK> SCAIE)
320
NFW ORDERS
80
_^r-—r—1
280
TOTAL
240
( 1 II 1 | | | 1 M
i M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 If 1 M 1 M 1 1
1 11111n t n
RATIO *
2.00
200
JRABLEGOO
160
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
-
....
*. — •'"'"''
•
-'-'-'"
*•...;.'•-
120
— — NON XIRABIEGO DOS
1.80
1.60
-'
^•v~>.
p-v
1.40
80 | M 1 t| | | | 1 |
1993
1
1994
1 t 1 1 1 1 KM 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 E M 1 1 1
1995
1996
1.20
i n 1 1 1 1f f 11 1 1 1 1 1111 1 M
1997
1 M t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 E 1 1 IM M 1 1 1 1 1
1994
1993
1995
1996
•SEASONAUY ADJUST®
SOURCE DEPAKTMM Of COMMBOE
1997
COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADMSBS
Manufacturers' shipments *
Manufacturers' inventories2
Manufacturers' new ordersl
Durable goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Nondurable
goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders2
Manufacturers'
inventoryshipments
ratio3
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
....
1996: Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct .
Nov
Dee'
1997: Jan*
Feb*
206,326 108,128
224,619 118,458
236,698 123,158
242,686 123,776
239,847 121,000
250,394 128,489
260,635 135,886
278,652 148,916
297,244 159,215
309,937 166,347
301,763 161,918
300,646 160,377
308,003 164,615
311,203 167,487
308,851 166,902
312,400 167,774
312,847 168,471
315,160 170,705
315,510 168,824
317,548 170,144
315,278 168,719
318,498 ••170,313
321,457 173,080
98,198
106,161
113,540
118,910
118,847
121,905
124,749
129,736
138,029
143,590
139,845
140,269
143,388
143,716
141,949
144,626
144,376
144,455
146,686
147,404
146,559
148,185
148,377
338,107
369,378
391,243
405,105
390,944
382,480
390,721
406,207
432,344
437,922
435,615
435,413
435,441
434,220
433,868
434,446
435,687
436,700
438,134
439,371
437,922
440,019
441,759
220,778
242,450
257,513
263,213
250,006
238,096
243,476
254,798
270,356
276,439
273,400
273,535
273,870
273,857
273,649
274,807
275,926
276,347
277,328
277,917
276,439
278,390
279,674
1
Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as Bales.
2
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
117,329
126,928
133,730
141,892
140,938
144,384
147,245
151,409
161,988
161,483
162,215
161,878
161,571
160,363
160,219
159,639
159,761
160,353
160,806
161,454
161,483
161,629
162,085
3
209,389 110,809
228,270 122,076
239,572 126,055
244,507 125,583
238,805 119,849
248,212 126,308
257,698 133,081
279,560 149,505
298,092 160,214
312,794 169,072
302,648 163,146
305,091 165,519
307,001 163,472
314,194 170,287
312,139 169,994
317,304 172,402
310,575 166,267
318,515 173,811
321,887 174,900
320,244 171,888
315,415 168,886
323,210 '175,370
325,911 177,922
26,094
31,108
32,988
33,331
30,471
31,525
31,693
35,847
41,302
44,779
44,555
46,613
40,487
44,979
42,921
45,935
41,172
47,515
47,482
43,885
43,869
'45,819
47,443
98,579
106,194
113,516
118,924
118,957
121,905
124,617
130,055
137,877
143,722
139,502
139,572
143,529
143,907
142,145
144,902
144,308
144,704
146,987
148,356
146,529
147,840
147,989
430,468
474,192
508,853
531,115
519,143
493,104
458,161
469,450
480,128
514,398
489,479
493,924
492,922
495,913
499,201
504,105
501,833
505,188
511,565
514,261
514,398
519,110
523,564
1.59
1.58
1.63
1.65
1.65
1.54
1.49
1.43
1.43
1.41
1.44
1.45
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.38
1.39
1.38
1.37
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
The producer price Index for all finished goods fell 0.4 percent in February. Prices of finished consumer foods
fell 0.3 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.5 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.1
percent.
INDEX, 1982 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
150
150
140
100
1989
1996
1990
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of IABOR
[1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Intermediate materials
Finished goods
Crude materials
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996/>
1996: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Peb
Total
Confinished sumer
goods
foods
105.4
108.0
113.6
119.2
121.7
123.2
124^7
125.5
127.9
131.3
129.7
130.4
130.6
130.8
131.2
131.2
131.6
132.0
132.5
132.6
133.4
133.0
132.5
109.5
112.6
118.7
124.4
124.1
123.3
125J
126.8
129.0
133.5
130.8
131.9
131.5
131.7
133.6
133.7
134.6
135.1
136.2
136.0
135.9
134.5
134.1
Total
Consumer goods
Total
104.0
106.5
111.8
117.4
120.9
123 1
124^4
125.1
127^5
130.5
129.2
129.8
130.3
130.4
130.3
130.4
130.6
131.0
131.3
131.5
132.5
132.5
132.0
Total
100.7
103.1
108.9
115.3
118.7
120.8
121.7
121.6
124.0
127.6
125.9
126.7
127.3
127.5
127.3
127.4
127.7
128.1
128.6
129.0
130.3
130.3
129.6
1
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
NOTE.—Beginning 1996, indexes are based on updated value weights.
22
Durable
111.5
113.8
117.6
120.4
123.9
125.7
128.0
130.9
132.7
134.2
133.8
134.0
133.9
134.2
134.5
134.2
134.4
134.8
134.3
134.4
134.5
134.4
134.4
Nondurable
94.9
97.3
103.8
111.5
115.0
117.3
117.6
116.2
118.8
123.2
121.0
122.0
123.0
123.1
122.8
123.0
123.3
123.7
124.7
125.1
126.9
126.9
126.1
Capital
equipment
111.7
114.3
118.8
122.9
126.7
129.1
131.4
134.1
136.7
138.3
138.0
138.1
138.1
138.1
138.3
138.3
138.5
138.7
138.5
138.4
138.6
138.6
138.5
finished
consumer
goods
Total
103.6 101.5
106.2 107.1
112.1 112.0
118.2 114.5
120.5 114.4
121.7 114.7
123.0 116.2
123.3 118.5
125.6 124.9
129.5 125.7
127.5 125.0
128.4 125.2
128.7 125.6
128.9 126.1
129.4 125.7
129.4 125.5
129.9 125.7
130.3 126.2
131.0 126.0
131.2 126.1
132.1 126.5
131.7 126.7
131.1 126.6
Foods
and
feeds'
99.2
109.5
113.8
113.3
111.1
110.7
112.7
114.8
114.8
128.4
123.1
123.3
125.6
130.4
131.3
131.8
132.2
133.2
130.5
127.8
127.6
126.6
125.6
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstufls
Other
101.7
106.9
111.9
114.5
93.7
96.0
103.1
108.9
101.2
100^4
102.4
101.8
102.7
113.5
111.1
109.8
114.2
115.4
112.6
115.1
115.8
112.8
112.0
113.8
119.4
125.6
118.2
96.2
106.1
111.2
113.1
105.5
105.1
108.4
106.5
105.8
121.5
115.4
115.8
119.8
126.7
127.6
129.8
129.0
124.5
120.7
117.8
114.6
113.4
111.3
879
85.5
93.4
101.5
94.6
93.5
94.7
948
96.8
104.0
104.3
101.8
106.4
103.7
98.5
101.1
102.8
100.9
102.1
107.0
118.2
129.2
118.5
114.6
114.9
116.4
118.7
125.5
125.6
125.2
125.3
125.6
125.9
125.5
125.2
125.4
125.8
125.8
126.0
126.5
126.7
126.6
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted and not
seasonally adjusted. The index was 3.0 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1982-84 ^100 (RATIOSCALE)
INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
SEASONAliY AEUUSI1D
170
160
160
150
140
130
110
110
JJ 11 i J.11.11 i 100
100
1989
1991
1990
1992
1994
1993
1995
1997
1996
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All items"
Housing
Transportation
Shelter
Period
Eel imp3
1987 . .
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 . .. .
1996- Peb .
Mar
May
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
1
Not
season- Seasonally
ally
adjust- adjusted
ed
(NSA)
1000
1136
118.3
1240
1307
1362
140.3
1445
1482
1524
1569
154.9
155.7
156.3
156.6
156.7
157.0
157.3
157.8
158.3
158.6
158.6
159.1
159.6
155.1
155.6
156.1
156.5
156.7
157.1
157.4
157.9
158.3
158.8
159.2
159.4
159.8
Pood
Total'
1S.9
113.5
118.2
125.1
132.4
136.3
137.9
140.9
144.3
148.4
153.3
150.9
151.5
151.8
152.1
153.1
153.8
154.4
155.1
155.8
156.4
156.4
156.0
156.5
41.2
114.2
118.5
123.0
128.5
133.6
137.5
141.2
144.8
148.5
152.8
151.1
151.4
151.8
152.2
152.3
152.9
153.2
153.5
153.9
154.4
154.7
155.2
155.6
Total
Main- Fuel
Kent- Homeownteand
era'
ers'
nance other
costs
utilicosts
and
(Dec.
reties
1982= (Dec.
1982=
pairs
100)
100) (NSA)
28.2
121.3
127.1
132.8
140.0
146.3
151.2
155.7
160.5
165.7
171.0
168.9
169.3
169.7
170.1
170.4
171.2
171.4
171.7
172.2
172.6
172.9
173.4
174.0
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
ete. excluded beginning 19811.
3
Relative importance, December 1996.
8.0
128.1
133.6
138.9
146.7
155.6
160.9
165.0
169.4
174.3
180.2
177.1
177.6
178.0
178.4
178.9
180.0
180.1
180=5
181.1
181.5
181.7
182.8
183.4
20.0
124.8
131.1
137.3
144.6
150.2
155.3
160.2
165.5
171.0
176.5
174.7
175.1
175.4
175.9
176.2
176.8
177.1
177.4
177.8
178.3
178.6
179.0
179.5
0.2
111.8
114.7
118.0
122.2
126.3
128.6
130.6
130.8
135.0
139.0
137.0
137.5
138.0
138.8
138.8
139.4
139.7
139.9
140.2
141.1
141.5
141.5
142.3
7.1
103.0
104.4
107.8
111.6
115.3
117.8
121.3
122.8
123.7
127.5
125.6
125.9
126.7
127.1
126.8
127.4
128.0
128.4
129.0
129.6
130.3
131.2
131.6
Apparel
and
up- Total"
keep
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
5.3
17.1
110.6 105.4
115.4 108.7
118.6 114.1
124.1 120.5
128.7 123.8
131.9 126.5
133.7 130.4
133.4 134.3
132.0 139.1
131.7 143.0
131.9 140.9
132.5 141.7
132.2 143.1
132.1 143.6
131.7 143.1
131.5 143.1
130.3 143.1
131.0 143.8
131.3 144.3
131.7 144.8
131.8
145.7
132.3 145.4
132.6 145.3
4.0
114.6
116.9
119.2
121.0
125.3
128.4
131.5
136.0
'139.0
141.4
140.3
140.7
140.8
140.9
141.4
141.7
142.0
142.7
142.4
142.1
142.2
141.9
141.9
3.2
80.2
80.9
88.5
101.2
99.4
99.0
98.0
98.5
100.0
106.3
101.6
104.4
109.3
110.2
106.5
106.0
105.0
104.9
106.6
108.4
111.1
111.8
111.8
7.3
130.1
138.6
149.3
162.8
177.0
190.1
201.4
211.0
220.5
228.2
225.9
226.4
227.0
227.7
228.3
228.9
229.3
229.9
230.4
231.0
231.5
231.9
232.3
7.0
88.6
89.3
94.3
102.1
102.5
103.0
104.2
104.6
105.2
110.1
106.8
107.9
111.1
111.4
109.2
109.5
109.3
109.5
110.7
112.0
113.7
114.6
114.9
77.0
118.2
123.4
129.0
135.5
142.1
147.3
152.2
156.5
161.2
165.6
164.2
164.6
164.9
165.3
165.6
166.0
166.2
166.7
167.0
167.4
167.7
167.9
168.3
NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure Tor homeownership costs (beginning
1983).
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA|
Change from preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Total
Period
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Foods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding:
foods
Foods
Change
from year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
2.2
4.0
4.9
5.7
1
1.6
.2
1.7
2.3
2.8
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 ...
1995
1996 f>
-0.2
5.7
5.2
2.6
-1.5
1.6
2.4
1.1
1.9
3.4
1.3
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
.5
4.1
3.1
5.3
8.7
7
1.6
-1.4
2.0
2.3
3.7
2.1
2.5
5.2
4.9
2.1
1.2
1.2
.6
1.9
2.7
Change, month to month
0
.5
.2
.2
.3
0
.3
.3
.4
'.1
.6
-.3
-.4
1996: Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Ocf
Nov
Dee
1997: Jail
Feb
0
.6
.5
.2
-.2
.1
.2
.3
.4
'.3
1.0
0
-0.2
.8
-.3
.2
1.4
.1
.7
.4
.8
'-.\
-.1
-1.0
-.3
r
0
.1
0
0
.1
0
.1
.1
-.1
1
.1
0
-.1
-0.3
.3
.3
.3
.6
.6
1.2
1.2
.6
-.3
-.3
'.3
.3
5.9
3.9
4.5
5.2
1.9
.3
.6
2.5
3.8
4.1
7.0
'5.4
1.9
-1.2
1.5
1.2
2.8
5.3
6.9
9.1
4.6
7.7
4.2
2.4
'-4.9
-5.5
2.8
2.5
2.8
3.4
2.5
1.9
2.5
2.5
4.0
3.1
4.3
'1.5
-.3
3.6
3.1
2.6
.8
3.4
4.0
5.9
4.9
7.3
6.6
3.5
1.2
2.8
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.5
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.9
2.8
3.4
2.8
1.4
__
2.9
4.2
4.9
5.6
2.9
2.4
2.9
2.2
2.1
2.4
4.8
4.6
3.0
17
1.6
1.6
.7
0
.4
.4
.7
.9
.6
.4
.4
.4
0
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.2
Source: Department of Ijalwr, Bureau of Jjabor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Portent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSAj
Transportation
Housing
Shcltef
All
items1
Period
Food
Total
1
Total"
Rent
ers'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
Fuel
ami
other
utilities
AP-
pare!
and
1
upkeep Total
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
Addendum: All items,
percc'nt change
(annual rate)
Prom
previous
quarter3
From
From From
3
6
year
months months earlier
earlier earlier NSA
Change, December to December, NSA
1987 .. ..
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994 . ...
1995
1996
4.4
4.4
4.6
6.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.5
3.3
3.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
1.9
1.5
2.9
2.9
2.1
4.3
3.7
4.0
3.9
4.5
3.4
2.6
2.7
2.2
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.5
4.9
5.2
3.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.9
3.9
4.5
6.7
4.2
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.0
3.4
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.7
3.7
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.7
2.8
1996: Feb
Mar
0.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.3
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.3
0.3
.4
.2
.2
.7
.5
.4
.5
.5
A
0
-.3
.3
0.2
.2
.3
.3
.1
.4
.2
.2
.3
.3
.2
.3
.3
0.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.5
.1
.2
.3
.2
.2
.3
.3
0.3
.3
.2
.2
.3
.6
.1
.2
.3
.2
.1
.6
.3
0.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.2
.3
1.6
4.8
6.1
2.9
4.7
3.0
4.0
3.2
1.0
4.0
5.1 10.4
3.4 -1.5
2.9
2.3
1.4
3.0
2.5
.9
2.4
.2 -1.6
3.8
.1
1.4
1.5
4.6 -.2
4.4
5.8
6.9
8.5
9.6
7.9
6.6
5.4
4.9
3.9
3.0
8.2
4.2
2.1 -2.1
2.3
6.8
1.4
36.5
3.3 -16.0
1.8
2.3
2.8 -5.4
3.2
5.9
1.6 -4.0
1.6
12.7
.5
5.1
18.1
-7.4
2.0
-1.4
2.2
-1.3
8.6
4.7
4.4
5.2
4.4
3.3
3.2
2.6
3.0
2.6
-0.1
2.8
4.7
.8
-3.4
-.5
-.9
-.1
1.6
1.7
2.5
.6
0
0.3
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
.2
.2
0.5
1.0
3.0
.3
-2.0
.3
-.2
.2
1.1
1.2
1.5
.8
.3
0.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.1
.3
.2
.2
.2
.1
.2
1.8
18.7
3.6
4.1
4.8
5.4
4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
Change, month to month
May
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
. ...
Feb
1
Includes
2
0.4 -0.6
.2
.5
.6 -.2
.3 -.1
-.2 -.3
.5 -.2
.5 -.9
.3
.5
.5
.2
.5
.3
.1
.5
.4
.7
.3
.2
items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., excluded beginning 1983.
24
0.5
.6
1.0
.3
-.3
0
0
.5
.3
.3
.6
-.2
-.1
3
0.2
.3
.1
.1
.4
.2
.2
.5
-.2
o
.1
-.2
0
3"2
3A
i"s
33
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3.4
4.0
3.7
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.3
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.5
2.8
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.0
3.0
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
In March, prices received by farmers rose 2.9 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are
not seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
120
60
60
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
J/ RATIO Of INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1990-92—100; not seasonally adjusted]
Prices paid by fanners
Prices received by farmers
Period
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
Crops
Ail commodities,
services, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates'
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Production
items
Ratio2
89
99
104
104
100
98
101
100
102
112
86
104
109
103
101
101
102
105
112
127
91
93
100
105
99
97
100
95
92
99
87
91
96
99
100
101
104
106
110
115
87
92
97
99
100
101
102
106
109
114
87
90
95
99
100
101
103
106
109
114
102
108
108
105
99
97
98
94
93
98
Nov
Dec
109
108
111
118
119
117
116
112
111
110
129
128
131
140
136
133
125
119
118
116
93
93
96
99
103
103
106
103
102
103
114
114
115
115
115
115
115
115
115
115
114
114
114
114
114
114
114
114
113
113
114
114
115
115
116
116
116
114
114
114
96
95
97
103
103
102
101
97
97
96
1997- Jan
Peb
Mar
108
105
108
116
113
119
98
98
98
116
116
116
115
115
115
115
115
115
93
91
93
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Mar
July
Sept
Oct
1
Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,
taxes, and wage rates.
2
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK. LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in M2 was unchanged in February; growth in M3 accelerated.
BILLIO NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALEI
5,200
4,800
BIUIONS OF DOLLARS'. (RATIO SCALE)
5,200
4,800
-•
4,400
4,400
4,000
V
4,000
\
3,600
-
M3
3,600
"N\
:
3,200
3,200
M2
2,800
2,800
2,400
2/400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
—^C
^"
Ml
^~^
800
800
(
600
I 1 1 ! 1 11 ! 1 ! 1
1989
t it n 1 t iMt
1 11H
Milt
1 } M [ 1 ! I II 1
1991
1990
1992
i i i i i 1 i i i ii
1993
II
1994
1 1 M
,
1 1 1 11
1995
1996
600
1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 11
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVBKS
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Ml
M2
M3
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' cheeks,
and other
checkable deposits (OCDs)
Ml plus retail
MMMF balances,
savings deposits
(including
MMDAs), and
small time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
KPs, Eurodollars, and
institutiononly MMMP
balances
749.7
787.0
794.2
825.8
897.3
1,025.0
1,129.8
1,150.7
1,129.0
1,081.0
2,832.7
2,996.3
3,160.9
3,279.5
3,379.6
3,434.0
3,486.6
3,502.1
3,655.0
3,833.1
Sept
Oct'
Nov
Dec'
1,122.2
1,119.8
1,126.2
1,123.5
1,117.1
1,115.5
1,108.8
1,099.8
1,093.2
1,080.2
1,080.0
1,081.0
1997- Jan'
Feb
1,079.6
1,080.3
Period
198719881989:
19901991:
1992:
19931994:
19951996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec'
1996- Jail
Feb
Mar
May
July
Debt
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average of
adjacent
month-end
levels) »
3,669.9
3,685.0
3,713.9
3,724.5
3,725.6
3,741.9
3,750.0
3,762.8
3,775.4
3,787.9
3,809.4
3,833.1
3,672.5
3,912.9
4,065.9
4,125.9
4,180.4
4,190.4
4,254.4
4,328.7
4,594.8
4,927.1
4,622.3
4,655.2
'4,691.9
4,708.7
4,731.2
4,753.5
'4,771.1
4,791.4
4,822.5
4,857.9
4,885.2
4,927.1
'4,339.9
'4,663.5
'4,892.8
'4,976.6
'5,006.2
'5,078.0
'5,167.8
'5,309.8
'5,700.3
6,057.0
'5,723.3
'5,741.9
'5,792.1
'5,824.2
'5,835.9
'5,870.0
'5,890.0
'5,919.8
'5,960.5
5,983.4
6,021.2
6,057.0
8,664.1
9,441.6
10,171.6
'10,853.0
'11,341.3
'11,885.6
'12,514.6
'13,156.4
'13,875.3
14,626.3
'13,925.4
'13,998.7
'14,075.6
'14,145.3
'14,204.2
'14,263.6
'14,336.8
'14,395.2
'14,445.3
14,509.5
14,577.3
14,626.3
3,849.8
3,866.2
4,948.5
4,987.0
P 6,071.7
"14,666.4
1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and loca! governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at a simple annual rate.
26
L
Percent change from year
or 6
months earlier2
Ml
M2
M3
Debt
3.5
5.0
.9
4.0
8.7
14.2
10.2
1.8
-1.9
-4.3
3.6
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.1
1.6
1.5
.4
4.4
4,9
5.3
6.5
3.9
1.5
1.3
.2
1.5
1.7
6.1
7.2
9.6
9.0
7.7
6.7
4.5
4.8
5.3
5.1
5.5
5.4
-4.0
-4.2
-2.7
-2.1
—2 8
-2.4
-2.4
-3.6
-5.9
-7.7
-6.6
62
4.8
4.5
5.2
5.2
4.7
4.8
4.4
4.2
3.3
3.4
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.7
6.2
6.2
6.6
6.9
'6.4
5.9
5.6
6.3
6.5
7.3
7.4
8.2
4.4
4.9
'5.3
'5.4
'5.4
'5.6
'5.9
'5.7
'5.3
5.1
5.3
5.1
-5.3
-3.5
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
4.6
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted)
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996-
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dec
Dee
Dee
Dee'
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oet'
Nov'
Dee'
1997- Jan'
Feb
. ..
Savings
deposits,
including
money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)
Demand
deposits
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
196.8
212.3
222.7
246.8
267.3
292.9
322.2
354.4
372.6
395.2
286.8
286.8
279.3
277.4
289.6
339.5
385.2
384.1
391.1
402.5
259.5
280.9
285.3
293.9
332.5
384.4
414.5
403.8
356.5
274.8
224.6
245.9
321.7
357.1
371.9
353.5
354.9
384.3
455.2
536.6
92.0
92.3
110.3
138.0
185.5
207.5
209.5
198.5
246.9
299.3
937.4
926.3
893.7
923.8
1,045.0
1,187.3
1,219.2
1,149.6
1,137.1
1,271.0
921.0
1,037.1
1,151.4
1,172.8
1,065.4
868.3
782.6
817.5
933.7
944.4
373.0
373.4
375.4
376.4
377.7
379.9
382.8
385.2
387.6
390.2
392.5
395.2
394.4
397.3
404.5
404.5
407.1
410.6
408.7
405.8
404.9
398.2
402.1
402.5
397.0
400.5
401.7
404.2
345.9
340.3
337.3
333.9
323.5
316.4
308.7
300.4
292.2
283.2
276.8
274.8
272.4
267.0
459.6
466.0
476.8
481.4
484.5
493.6
499.6
506.1
513.2
520.5
527.1
536.6
542.4
548.7
250.1
259.7
263.7
263.4
263.6
269.7
274.0
278.8
285.2
288.1
292.0
299.3
296.3
305.4
1,153.8
1,165.1
1,180.2
1,190.1
1,195.6
1,204.1
1,211.0
1,222.7
1,231.5
1,246.3
1,259.0
1,271.0
1,282.5
1,290.5
934.3
934.1
930.8
929.5
928.4
928.8
930.5
934.2
937.5
940.9
943.3
944.4
945.2
946.6
Currency
Period
Money market
mutual fund
balances
Retail'
Institution
only*
1
Balances
2
Balances
3
in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000.
in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more.
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of let
than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
Small
denomination
time
deposits3
Large
denomination
time deposits3
Overnight
and
term
repurchase
agreements
(EPs)
(net)
467.0
518.3
541.5
480.9
416.5
353.4
333.4
363.1
419.8
489.6
172.6
189.0
158.0
138.8
119.5
128.6
158.6
182.9
182.1
192.5
420.9 187.2
426.3 188.9
432.5 '187.8
435.4 188.9
442.5 202.7
448.9 '195.2
455.2 '194.0
459.3 192.0
466.8 193.9
479.2 195.6
194.7
481.7
192.5
489.6
491.3
194.8
499.4 198.4
Overnight
and
term
Eurodollars
(net)
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Savings
bonds
108.2
100.6
249.5
117.0
109.4 266.8
95.2 117.5
324.0
88.7
126.0 '334.1
79.3 137.9 '328.8
67.0 156.6 '344.7
66.4 171.5 '340.5
82.1 '180.2 '383.0
91.0
184.8 '469.7
112.6
187.0
435.7
94.2
95.4
94.0
96.5
97.0
97.8
97.9
98.4
101.2
107.1
107.5
112.6
185.0
'185.2
'185.4
'185.8
'186.1
186.4
'186.7
'186.9
'187.1
187.1
187.0
187.0
'464.3
'448.1
'458.4
'460.0
'439.6
'448.5
'447.6
'452.4
'457.7
447.5
454.2
435.7
116.3 "186.7 "415.9
117.7
Bankers'
acceptances
Commercial
paper
44.5
40.2
40.7
36.1
'23.8
'20.8
'14.8
'14.0
'11.7
11.8
'11.6
'10.5
'10.1
'10.4
'11.0
'11.5
'11.6
'11.4
'11.3
11.3
11.6
11.8
'440.0
'443.0
'446.3
'459.3
'468.0
'470.1
'473.0
'477.7
'482.0
479.6
. 483.2
495.5
"11.5
"509.1
'272.7
'334.3
'344.6
'354.4
'335.2
'365.5
'386.6
'403.9
'439.3
495.5
NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonlmnk issuers are a component of money stock but are not
shown here.
Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures'; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
Nonborrowed
Nonborrowed
plus
extended
credit
Required
Monetary
base
Total
Seasonal
Extended
credit
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
38,866
40,410
40,508
41,780
45,547
54,367
60,519
59,364
56,364
50,167
38,089
38,694
40,242
41,455
45,355
54,243
60,437
59,156
56,106
50,012
38,572
39,938
40,262
41,478
45,356
54,244
60,437
59,156
56,106
50,012
37,820
39,362
39,585
40,116
44,569
53,212
59,456
58,196
55,086
48,743
239,784
256,920
267,723
293,332
317,502
351,244
386,877
418,723
435,008
452,920
777
1,716
265
326
192
124
82
209
257
155
93
130
84
76
38
18
31
100
40
68
1996- Feb
Mar
54,848
55,727
55,182
54,227
54,112
53,197
52,269
51,351
50,135
49,875
50,167
54,813
55,706
55,091
54,100
53,726
52,829
51,935
50,983
49,848
49,661
50,012
54,813
55,706
55,091
54,100
53,726
52,829
51,935
50,983
49,848
49,661
50,012
53,997
54,590
54,062
53,368
52,962
52,132
51,308
50,313
49,142
48,840
48,743
433,557
436,855
436,984
437,885
439,692
442,244
444,160
445,988
447,124
449,466
452,920
35
21
91
127
386
368
334
368
287
214
155
7
10
34
105
192
284
309
306
212
109
68
483
1,244
20
23
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49,402
49,062
49,358
49,020
49,358
49,020
48,179
48,032
454,047
456,274
45
42
19
21
0
0
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996-
Mav
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan'
Feb"
1
...
. . . .
Data arc prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in February; commercial and industrial loans rose 1.2
percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
3,600
3,200
4,000
3,600 _ ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
-V
800
800
400
400
OTHER SECURITIES
200
200
160
l i l l 11 i i i i i
1989
I M i I III I
I I M II I1 MI
-1990
1991
i M 1 I I I I I M i 160
1992
1995
1994
1993
1997
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMK: ADVISERS
{Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]]
Loans and leases in bank credit
Securities in bank credit
Total
bank
credit
Period
Total
securities
U.S.
Government
securities
Real estate
Total loans CommerOther
and
cial and
securities
leases2
industrial
Total
Revolving
home
equity
Consumer
Security
Other
Other
2,435.4
2,609.1
2,754.6
2,859.1
2,958.5
•"3,118.4
3,332.5
3,612.4
3,770.7
562.2
585.1
634.9
745.8
843.0
917.6
951.9
998.6
992.4
367.4
401.0
457.0
566.1
666.2
732.7
730.6
709.5
707.3
194.9
184.2
177.9
179.7
176.8
184.9
221.2
289.1
285.1
1,873.2
2,024.0
2,119.7
2,113.2
2,115.5
2,200.7
2,380.6
2,613.8
2,778.2
607.6
638.8
641.1
619.6
596.2
586.6
646.1
717.3
787.3
676.0
771.2
857.3
881.6
902.5
942.6
1,004.6
1,079.6
1,125.8
40.0
50.2
62.2
69.6
73.4
73.0
75.3
79.1
85.3
636.0
721.0
795.0
812.1
829.1
'869.6
929.3
1,000.5
1,040.5
356.3
376.7
382.1
365.4
357.9
390.1
451.2
492.8
519.0
40.7
41.5
45.4
55.4
65.6
90.3
79.1
85.6
79.0
192.6
195.7
193.9
191.3
193.3
191.3
199.7
238.5
267.1
Sepf
Octr
Nov
Decr
3,645.6
3,643.5
3,667.6
••3,664.6
'3,671.3
••3,682.4
••3,674.4
3,692.8
3,717.3
3,742.7
3,770.7
1,000.1
988.5
990.4
990.9
982.1
982.1
972.1
968.9
982.1
992.4
710.9
703.3
707.8
711.6
707.5
707.7
702.2
703.3
703.6
707.7
707.3
289.2
285.2
282.6
279.3
274.5
274.5
269.9
265.5
266.5
274.3
285.1
2,645.5
2,655.0
2,677.2
2,673.7
2,689.3
2,700.3
••2,702.3
2,723.9
2,747.1
2,760.6
2,778.2
724.2
724.9
732.1
'735.0
'738.8
744.7
'746.8
761.1
771.3
776.7
787.3
1,090.9
1,096.1
1,100.1
1,103.2
1,105.6
1,105.2
1,109.4
1,112.0
1,115.2
1,120.3
1,125.8
79.7
79.7
80.1
79.7
79.2
79.9
80.5
81.2
83.3
84.2
85.3
1,011.2
1,016.4
1,020.0
1,023.4
1,026.4
1,025.3
1,028.9
1,030.8
1,031.9
1,036.1
1,040.5
497.4
500.8
504.7
502.7
506.9
510.7
512.8
515.8
518.2
518.9
519.0
87.6
85.3
85.0
77.3
79.8
78.1
72.3
73.8
76.6
77.4
79.0
245.4
247.9
255.3
255.5
258.0
261.6
261.0
261.2
265.8
267.4
267.1
1997- Janr
Peb
3,806.8
3,845.6
1,006.5
1,022.5
706.1
703.1
300.4
319.3
2,800.4
2,823.1
791.1
800.8
1,131.7
1,137.5
85.8
86.5
1,045.9
1,051.1
521.2
520.6
82.5
83.8
273.9
280.4
19881989199019911992:
1993:
199419951996-
Dee
Dec
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dee
Dec
Dec'
1996- Peb
July
..
970:1
1
Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment
companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by ^classifications of assets and liabilities.
28
2
Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (KPs) with, and loans
commercial banks in the United States.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally a4Justed annual rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Credit market funds
Period
Total
Internal '
Total
648.4
851.9
744.3
592.6
489.3
599.9
698.1
758.9
882.0
953.8
754.7
910.0
906.4
956.9
995.1
838.6
1,063.9
917.6
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996P
1995- I
n
m
rv
1996: I
n
m'
iv>
374.5
408.2
396.9
409.1
422.2
438.6
480.2
524.9
543.8
592.8
517.7
527.5
559.1
571.0
578.4
585.7
597.5
609.6
Total
273.9
443.7
347.4
183.5
67.1
161.3
217.9
234.0
338.2
361.0
237.0
382.5
347.3
385.9
416.7
252.9
466.4
308.0
73.2
95.5
59.0
47.0
'-35.6
'60.9
'68.9
'73.2
'123.3
64.7
'160.9
'189.0
'40.7
'102.5
'38.1
'122.0
75.7
23.2
Securities
and mortgages
• 29.1
';
-.2
-35.9
-26.6
'75.1
'66.9
'85.4
'-37.6
'-2.0
-16.4
'-20.3
'36.5
'-45.6
'21.0
'-47.2
'59.0
-93.5
16.4
1
Profits before tax (book) leas profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed
capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment
in the U.S.
Loans and
short-term
paper
44.1
95.7
94.9
73.6
-110.7
-6.0
-16.5
110.8
125.3
81.1
181.2
152.5
86.3
81.5
'85.3
'63.0
169.2
«*
Total
Other2
200.8
348.1
288.4
136.5
'102.7
'100.4
'149.0
'160.9
'214.9
296.2
'76.2
'193.5
'306.7
'283.4
'378.7
'130.9
390.7
284.8
592.0
756.2
632.9
509.8
500.7
554.4
787.9
761.7
889.0
973.4
726.4
916.8
881.6
1,031.1
973.4
928.2
1,099.1
892.8
Capital
expenditures3
Increase in
financial
assets
357.4
373.3
399.4
394.5
370.9
386.9
430.6
483.6
546.6
555.7
552.9
534.1
572.9
526.5
523.4
534.7
580.9
583.7
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
234.6
382.9
233.5
115.3
129.8
167.5
357.3
278.1
342.4
417.7
173.5
382.7
308.7
504.6
450.0
393.5
518.2
309.1
56.5
95.7
111.4
82.9
-11.4
45.6
-89.8
-2.9
-7.0
-19.6
28.4
-6.8
24.8
-74.4
21.7
-89.6
-35.1
24.8
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from
U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER CREDIT
[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in consumer credit outstanding1
Consumer credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total
1987198819891990:
1991:
19921993:
199419951996:
1996:
Dec
Dec3
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec'
Jan
Feb
May
June
July
Aue
Sept
Oct'
NoV
Dec'
1997- JanP
671.7
729.9
781.9
796.4
781.1
784.9
844.1
966.5
1,103.3
1,194.6
1,111.1
1,122.1
1,133.3
1,141.8
1,148.3
1,155.1
1,169.1
1,177.5
1,178.6
1,185.9
1,190.8
1,194.6
1,203.0
Automobile
Revolving
266.1
285.5
291.0
282.4
259.3
257.1
279.8
317.2
350.8
377.3
352.9
355.8
358.6
361.2
362.3
367.7
373.6
373.5
374.5
376.8
376.7
377.3
378.6
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month.
2
Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., plus noninstallment credit.
153.3
174.5
198.6
223.3
245.8
257.8
287.0
339.3
413.9
462.4
419.0
425.7
431.3
437.9
443.5
445.4
451.0
454.3
453.7
456.4
460.4
462.4
470.3
Other2
252.4
269.9
292.3
290.7
276.1
269.9
277.3
309.9
338.6
354.8
339.1
340.6
343.4
342.8
345.2
341.9
344.5
349.7
350.4
352.8
353.7
354.8
354.1
Total
32.8
58.2
(4)
14.5
-15.3
3.8
59.2
122.4
136.8
91.3
7.8
11.0
11.2
8.5
6.5
6.8
14.0
8.4
1.1
7.3
4.9
3.8
8.4
Automobile
18.9
19.4
(4)
-8.6
-23.1
-2.2
22.7
37.4
33.6
26.5
2.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
1.1
5.4
5.9
-.1
1.0
2.3
-.1
.6
1.3
Revolving
17.3
21.2
(4)
24.7
22.5
12.0
29.2
52.3
74.6
48.5
5.1
6.7
5.6
6.6
5.6
1.9
5.6
3.3
-.6
2.7
4.0
2.0
7.9
Other"
-3.3
17.5
(4)
-1.6
-14.6
-6.2
7.4
32.6
28.7
16.2
.5
1.5
2.8
-.6
-.3
-.6
2.6
5.2
.7
2.4
.9
1.1
-.7
3
Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December
1988 and subsequent months.
+ Because of breaks in scries, net change not available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rotes rose in March.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
12
12
10
10
— ~"\
s^'\
X
•"\
8 '
s
~~
CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)
^~—
\
*"N.
V
[-'
^ \
N.
_'
/
„/
*s._^
J
V<-
q
IS
4
_/
^
"
^~~v\
^
/
^/
\S
6
TREASURY
BILIS /
""•--. ..
P
>t
A
/r1
'".
DISC OUNT
ft ITE
2
\
/
N
6
s
/
X
•-.... .•'""""--^
2
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK
0
1 I II 1 1 f | 1 1 11 ) ) 1 1 1 1 1 ! I J
1 M M 1 1 II II
I I I t I I I I I I t 1 1 1 M i 1 1 ] 1t I M 1 1 M 1 1 1 1
1991
1990
1989
1994
1993
1992
M M , Inn,
1,,,,, mull Milk 0
1996
1995
SOURCE: SEE TABLE BftOW
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996:
3-month
bills (new issues ')
..
.
..
..
Mar .
Apr
May
June
July
Aiigr
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan .
Peb .
Mar .
...
Constant maturities2
3-year
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard
& Poor's)3
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Mood/s)
Prime
commercial
paper, l
6 months
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.K.
Bank)*
Prime rate
charged 4by
banks
5.82
6.69
8.12
7.51
5.42
3.45
3.02
4.29
5.51
5.02
4.96
4.99
5.02
5.11
5.17
5.09
5.15
5.01
5.03
4.87
5.05
5.00
5.14
7.68
8.26
8.55
8.26
6.82
5.30
4.44
6.27
6.25
5.99
5.79
6.11
6.27
6.49
6.45
6.21
6.41
6.08
5.82
5.91
6.16
6.03
6.38
8.39
8.85
8.49
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.09
6.57
6.44
6.27
6.51
6.74
6.91
6.87
6.64
6.83
6.53
6.20
6.30
6.58
6.42
6.69
7.73
7.76
7.24
7.25
6.89
6.41
5.63
6.19
5.95
5.75
5.82
5.93
5.98
6.03
5.91
5.72
5.86
5.71
5.59
5.62
5.72
5.63
5.78
9.38
9.71
9.26
9.32
8.77
8.14
7.22
7.97
7.59
7.37
7.35
7.50
7.62
7.71
7.65
7.46
7.66
7.39
7.10
7.20
7.42
7.31
7.56
6.85
7.68
8.80
7.95
5.85
3.80
3.30
4.93
5.93
5.42
5.26
5.38
5.42
5.57
5.67
5.51
5.66
5.45
5.40
5.44
5.48
5.42
5.60
5.66
6.20
6.93
6.98
5.45
3.25
3.00
3.60
5.21
5.02
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.50
5.10
5.06
5.13
5.26
6.27
6.30
6.42
6.52
6.59
6.63
6.73
6.79
5.75
5.75
5.79
5.84
7.47
7.52
7.61
7.63
5.51
5.52
5.61
5.75
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.50
8.21
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.15
8.83
8.27
New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHPB)5
9.31
9.19
10.13
10.05
9.32
8.24
7.20
7.49
7.87
7.80
7.49
7.76
7.80
8.05
8.01
8.08
7.98
7.95
7.80
7.79
7.81
7.78
Week ended:
1997: Mar 8
15
22
29
1
Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury
Department.
:J
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Averagt- effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
a
30
5
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and
charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Overall, stock prices were little changed in March.
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965.50 (RATIO SCA1E)
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965-50 (RATIO SCA1E)
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
180
160
220
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)
/
200
200
180
160
mlu
140
1989
140
1991
1990
1994
1993
1992
1995
1996
1997
PERCENT
-120
PERCENT
20
15
15
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)
10
10
5
5
0
1989
1990
1991
1996
1992
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: NEW YO8K STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD i POCK'S GCSPOKAnON
Common stock prices]
New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec.
31, 1965
except as noted)2
Period
Composite
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992 ....
1993 ....
1994
1995
1996
1996- Mar
May
July
Sent
oct
.::
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Mar
Week ended:
1997: Mar 8
15
22
29
.'.
1
Average of daily closing prices.
2
Includes ait the stocks (more than
a
Industrial
Transportation
Utility3
Dow-Jones
Finance
average4
Standard &
Poor's composite index
(194143=10)5
Common stock 6yields
(percent)
Dividendprice ratio
161.70
149.91
180.02
183.46
206.33
229.01
249.58
254.12
291.15
358.17
346.73
347.50
354.84
358.32
345.52
354.59
360.96
373.54
388.75
391.61
403.58
418.57
416.72
195.31
180.95
216.23
225.78
258.14
284.62
299.99
315.25
367.34
453.98
439.56
441.99
452.63
458.30
438.58
449.41
459.69
473.98
490.60
494.38
509.64
524.30
523.08
140.39
134.12
175.28
158.62
173.99
201.09
242.49
247.29
269.41
327.33
324.76
326.42
334.66
331.57
316.66
321.61
323.12
332.93
348.32
352.28
359.40
364.15
372.87
148.59
143.53
174.87
181.20
185.32
198.91
228.90
209.06
220.30
249.77
245.77
244.87
249.73
247.20
245.31
244.74
242.25
249.61
258.85
257.09
263.91
271.36
264.78
146.48
127.26
151.88
133.26
150.82
179.26
216.42
209.73
238.45
303.89
290.45
287.92
290.43
294.42
287.89
302.95
308.16
324.42
345.30
350.01
361.45
388.75
387.21
2,275.99
2,060.82
2,508.91
2,678.94
2,929.33
3,284.29
3,522.06
3,793.77
4,493.76
5,742.89
5,612.24
5,579.86
5,616.71
5,671.51
5,496.26
5,685.50
5,804.01
5,996.21
6,318.36
6,435.87
6,707.03
6,917.48
6,901.12
286.83
265.79
322.84
334.59
376.18
415.74
451.41
460.33
541.64
670.83
647.07
647.17
661.23
668.50
644.07
662.68
674.88
701.46
735.67
743.25
766.22
798.39
792.16
3.08
3.64
3.45
3.61
3.24
2.99
2.78
2.82
2.56
2.19
2.22
2.24
2.21
2.21
2.28
2.22
2.20
2.11
2.01
2.01
1.95
1.89
1.91
419.55
422.37
414.39
413.55
524.90
529.35
521.29
520.23
375.15
377.12
371.46
370.10
268.53
266.62
262.60
262.43
392.97
396.05
382.50
381.59
6,932.62
7,003.65
6,870.96
6,850.68
798.36
802.40
787.58
786.09
1.91
1.89
1.93
1.92
2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.
Dec, 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility
index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect
the4 doubling.
Includes 30 stocks,
a
Includes 500 stocks.
1997
Earningsprice ratio
5.48
8.01
7.42
6.47
4.79
4.22
4.46
5.83
6.09
5.27
5.21
5.25
6
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Barnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's
Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 5 months of fiscal 1997, there was a deficit of $90.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $80.6 billion
a year earlier.
BIUO« OF DOUARS
1,700
RECEIPTS AND OUT1AYS -"
1,600
BILUONS OF W
DUARS
1,700
__ .
1,600
_!/
1,500
----""" ~ "
1,500
1,400
1,400
--'--'"'"
1,300
^*
-'""""
),200
1,300
^^
1,200
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
900
900
800
800
700 A
\
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
K 700
N
V
0
0
-100
"'
_^-
~~—,^
-200
^^—-—___:
-300
-400 /
V
1
1988
1
1989
100
•—
~~
1
1
1990
-200
——^
1
1
1991
1992
^NCUJOESON-BUOGErANDOfMUOGEriTEMS.
SOUSCTS:DB>MTMB«OflM11iEASUIWAI«C»fiCEOfMANAeEMmrAND»UDGET
1
1993
-300
1
1994
1
1995
I
1996
K -400
1997 ^
FISCAL YEARS
OOUNO. Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars)
Fiscal year or period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 .
1984
.
.. .
1985 . .
. . . .
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 . .
1996 . .
...
1997 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 5
months: '
Fiscal year 1996 ...
Fiscal year 1997 ...
Beeeipts
Outlays
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
734.2
769.3
854.4
909.3
991.2
1,032.0
1,055.0
1,091.3
1,154.4
1,258.6
1,351.8
1,453.1
1,505.4
458.7
504.0
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.9
946.5
990.5
1,004.2
1,064.5
1,143.7
1,253.2
1,324.4
1,381.7
1,409.4
1,461.7
1,515.7
1,560.3
1,631.0
556.5
587.0
637.2
677.0
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
-59.2
-40.7
-73.8
-79.0
-128.0
-207.8
-185.4
-212.3
-221.2
-149.8
-155.2
-152.5
-221.2
-269.4
-290.4
-255.0
-203.1
-163.9
-107.3
-125.6
314.2
365.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
548.0
569.0
641.0
667.8
727.5
750.3
761.2
788.9
842.5
923.6
1,000.8
1,085.6
1,116.5
369.1
404.1
476.6
543.1
594.4
661.3
686.1
769.7
807.0
810.3
861.8
932.8
1,028.1
1,082.7
1,129.3
1,142.8
1,182.4
1,227.1
1,259.9
1,316.0
-54.9
-38.7
-72.7
-74.0
-120.1
-208.0
-185.7
-221.7
-238.0
-169.3
-194.0
-205.2
-277.8
-321.6
-340.5
-300.4
-258.8
-226.3
-174.3
-199.5
85.4
98.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
263.7
281.7
293.9
302.4
311.9
335.0
351.1
367.5
388.9
89.7
100.0
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
225.1
241.7
252.3
266.6
279.4
288.7
300.5
315.0
-4.3
-2.0
-1.1
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
-80.6
-90.0
418.1
436.7
519.5
555.6
-101.4
-118.9
138.4
150.3
117.6
121.4
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
1
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year
J998, issued February 6, 1997.
32
Off-budget
On-budget
Total
Beeeipts
Outlays
Federal debt (end of
period)
Gross
Federal
Held by
the public
9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
52.8
56.6
52.2
50.1
45.3
55.7
62.4
67.0
73.9
776.6
829.5
909.1
994.8
1,137.3
1,371.7
1,564.7
1,817.5
2,120.6
2,346.1
2,601.3
2,868.0
3,206.6
3,598.5
4,002.1
4,351.4
4,643.7
4,921.0
5,181.9
5,453.7
607.1
640.3
709.8
785.3
919.8
1,131.6
1,300.5
1,499.9
1,736.7
1,888.7
2,050.8
2,189.9
2,410.7
2,688.1
2,998.8
3,247.5
3,432.1
3,603.4
3,733.0
3,875.8
20.8
28.9
4,974.4
5,306.7
3,678.9
3,800.9
Sources; Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 5 months of fiscal 1997, receipts were $30.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $39.8
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
/(JO
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
/OO
RECEIPTS'37
~
500
_\ —__,—.•••—
500
\
400
400
SOCIAL INSURANCE
lAXbb AND CON 1 KIBU 1 IONS
CORPORATION
INCOME TAXES
\
\
100
1
0
1
1
1
!
1
OTHER RECEIPTS
OTHERR&IPTS
100
,(
p
OUTLAYS-17
0
n
1,400
'
1,300
•_--
1,100
----
"
_^^
^-.^^-"
—
^
300
300
200 s\
V
\
1988
1
/
1
1990 '
1989
1
1
1991
1992
v
INaUD£SON-BUOGET AND OFF-BUDGET fTEMS.
>OURCK:DEPAm«EmOFmETIiEASUWANDOfFKIOTM«JAGEMENrAM)BUDGET
1
1993
1
1994
1
1995
I
N 200
1997 N
1996
ISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays
On-budgct and off-budget receipts
Individ-
Fiscal year or period
Total
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 .
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 5 months: *
Fiscal year 1996
Fiscal year 1997
ual income
taxes
Corporation
income
taxes
Social
insurance
taxes
National defense
Other
.Total
InterDepart- nationment of
al
l}efense, affairs
military
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
35.5
42.6
52.5
68.8
85.0
89.8
111.1
114.7
120.2
131.3
133.5
125.4
122.2
118.6
245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
294.9
289.8
262.4
286.9
278.6
268.6
259.4
253.2
254.3
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
9.6
13.8
15.9
16.1
17.2
17.1
16.4
13.5
14.8
33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
48.4
57.7
71.2
89.5
99.4
107.1
115.4
119.4
127.6
65.8
70.2
75.1
78.9
85.0
98.1
104.5
119.0
130.6
144.7
159.9
174.2
194.3
128.2
119.8
123.3
129.4
136.1
147.1
170.3
197.0
207.3
214.1
220.5
226.0
238.9
188.6
198.8
207.4
219.3
232.5
248.6
269.0
287.6
304.6
319.6
335.8
349.7
367.7
129.5
136.0
138.7
151.8
169.3
184.2
194.5
199.4
198.8
203.0
232.2
241.1
247.4
131.9
142.3
126.1
139.7
159.3
204.3
225.7
174.7
160.4
174.5
163.4
170.7
173.2
101.1
108.0
6.8
8.6
46.7
50.9
69.7
79.1
93.3
101.1
142.0
148.7
100.1
102.1
72.0
73.2
106.5
113.3
458.7
504.0
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
851.9
734.2
769.3
854.4
909.3
991.2
1,032.0
1,055.0
1,091.3
1,154.4
1,258.6
1,351.8
1,453.1
1,505.4
334.5
349.0
392.6
401.2
445.7
466.9
467.8
476.0
509.7
543.1
590.2
656.4
672.7
61.3
63.1
83.9
94.5
103.3
93.5
98.1
100.3
117.5
140.4
157.0
171.8
176.2
265.2
283.9
303.3
334.3
359.4
380.0
396.0
413.7
428.3
461.5
484.5
509.4
535.8
73.1
73.3
74.6
79.3
82.8
91.5
93.1
101.4
98.9
113.7
120.1
115.4
120.8
556.5
587.0
271.1
283.9
48.7
49.2
189.2
207.3
47.5
46.5
104.5
116.3
Other
est
93.9
104.1
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
637.2
677.0
37.7
40.8
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
Net
inter-
61.5
66.4
86.6
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
303.6
299.3
273.3
298.4
291.1
281.6
272.1
265.7
267.2
121.0
138.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
Income Social
security security
26.5
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
946.5
990.5
1,004.2
1,064.5
1,143.7
1,253.2
1,324.4
1,381.7
1,409.4
1,461.7
1,515.7
1,560.3
1,631.0
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
Medicare
22.8
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
Health
18.5
20.5
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
102.3
113.6
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
1
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of Ike United States Government, Fiscal Year
3998, issued February 6, 1997.
Total
and
contributions
7.5
7.5
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the fourth quarter of 1996, Federal receipts rose $374 billion (annual rate) and Federal current expenditures
rose $22.6 billion.
BILLONS OF DOLLARS
BILUONS OF DOLLARS
1,800
1,800
SEASONAilY ADJUSIHJ AWUM RAJK
**'"*1,400
1,600
„„- --'"
-
1,400
CURRENT EXPENDITURES
/
*» """
\
1,200
1,000
1,400
y-
^
/-—
"
s~
^-
-^
^ _ .* *
/
1,200
^
—-—-
1,000
^
,- -" —
800
,--'
-""
/•-
•
RECEIPTS
800
-
—• *
'^
^
600
600
400
400
200
200
C JRRENTS JRPIUSOR DEFICIT
-200
-400
"^
1
1
1982
1
— — •^^•*
j
!
±
f
•\^-
.A
y
—
-~^-,.
1
1984
1986
1985
-)
0
^
^"
1
19B3
-
1987
1988
1
1
i i i
1990
1989
C"d£NDARY&
_^_
•x
.—-——~
~
1 1 i
1991
—
i i t
1992
-X—1
1
1
1993
111
1994
1
1
1995
^-" -200
-400
1
1996
ye
SOURCE DEPAKTM&JT (X COMMBICE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government receipts
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Contributions
for
social
insurance
1,129.8
1,149.0
1,198.5
1,275.3
1,377.0
1,478.4
1,575.0
1,160.9
1,230.5
485.7
476.9
490.8
523.6
561.4
614.9
673.1
1,225.2
1,271.3
1,280.3
1,324.4
501.0
521.0
529.1
543.4
127.5
136.5
133.7
152.2
65.1
79.7
81.9
88.2
92.6
91.2
90.5
82.8
86.5
84.3
87.5
87.2
93.7
461.1
482.6
507.1
526.0
558.6
588.0
615.2
479.0
510.0
118.0
109.8
118.6
137.5
164.4
184.3
196.2
111.1
123.7
1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
539.3
571.3
560.4
574.5
144.3
162.2
171.3
180.0
1,449.3
1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494.7
1,523.1
1,575.6
1,581.9
1,619.3
594.6
624.4
617.3
623.3
183.1
180.7
189.1
184.3
196.4
199.0
196.5
192.8
Period
Total
Calendar year:
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
1991- IV
. ..
1992- IV
1993- I
n
m
IV
.. ..
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995- I
n
m
IV
1996- I
n
m
rv
639.6
681.4
680.2
691.1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Federal Government current expenditures
Total
Consumption
expenditures
488.1
510.3
512.4
526.2
530.3
535.1
1,284.5
1,345.0
1,479.4
1,530.9
1,567.3
1,640.1
1,702.1
1,399.8
1,509.5
1,509.7
1,521.5
1,534.7
1,557.7
426.6
445.9
451.0
451.9
450.7
453.8
459.0
440.5
457.7
451.3
448.5
453.5
454.3
565.8
643.3
645.9
654.7
660.8
675.0
92.8
91.3
93.3
93.2
545.5
558.1
562.1
568.6
1,534.6
1,552.5
1,575.7
1,606.4
446.7
445.1
455.7
455.3
670.9
676.4
683.5
700.9
91.7
93.5
88.4
91.3
579.9
584.6
591.8
595.9
1,621.9
1,644.3
1,645.0
1,649.3
454.6
455.6
453.6
451.4
84.4
83.2
85.7
108.7
602.6
612.0
619.4
626.7
1,678.3
1,702.3
1,702.6
1,725.2
453.6
463.5
461.3
457.7
Transfer
payments
Grantsin-aid
to
Net
State
interest
and
paid
local
governments
Subsidies less
current
surplus
of
Government
enterprises
Less:
Wage
accruals less
disbursements
Current
surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
132.4
153.4
172.2
185.7
195.9
206.1
214.6
162.7
176.3
177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0
179.9
192.7
195.8
192.3
201.4
229.1
233.4
200.0
191.8
32.4
30.8
35.1
41.8
36.4
31.3
30.9
30.9
40.3
0.1
-.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
- 154.7
-196.0
-280.9
-255.6
- 190.2
-161.7
-127.1
-238.8
-279.0
190.5
193.2
192.7
192.8
44.7
43.6
40.5
38.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
2333
188.3
198.3
204.3
214.8
220.9
229.3
232.3
233.9
36.5
35.3
35.2
38.5
.0
.0
.0
.0
-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1
708.3
716.2
724.2
730.9
192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9
205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3
32.3
32.0
31.1
29.9
.0
.0
.0
.0
-172.6
-161.1
- 158.5
-154.5
756.2
757.9
762.9
779.8
207.6
219.3
214.5
216.8
230.5
230.8
233.7
238.8
30.4
30.8
30.3
32.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-155.2
-126.7
-120.8
-105.9
513.3
522.2
625.1
659.1
682.9
719.9
764.2
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA)
Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
United
States
1987
1988 ..
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996>
1996: Jan
Feb
Map
93.1
97.3
99.0
98.9
96.9
100.0
103.4
108.6
112.1
115.2
112.4
113.8
113.2
114.3
114.8
115.5
115.5
115.8
116.0
116.2
'117.2
117.7
'117.6
118.1
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan'
FebP
1
Japan
Canada
France
86.4
101.6
94.5
106.9
99.9
106.8
103.2
104.2
98.9 106.1
100.0 100.0
104.5
95.8
97.0
111.8
115.6
100.2
'117.6 102.9
102.3
115.9
'116.1 104.4
98.1
115.5
101.2
116.1
103.5
116.3
'116.7
99.3
118.6
103.7
'118.7 101.5
'118.9 102.8
'119.0 106.8
'120.3 104.9
'118.7 105.4
120.4 '110.9
107.6
93.0
97.3
100.9
102.4
101.1
100.0
96.2
99.8
101.4
102.1
100.7
100.9
101.6
101.1
101.9
'101.5
'103.6
'103.6
'102.1
'102.0
'102.0
102.6
Germany
Italy
86.4
89.8
94.0
98.9
101.7
100.0
92.5
95.3
965
96.5
95.9
94.3
96.0
95.5
96.3
96.9
97.6
'97.4
'96.7
'96.3
97.5
'97.3
98.5
92.4
97.9
100.9
101.1
100.2
100.0
97.6
102.6
108.2
106.4
••106.1
'105.9
'108.4
'104.8
'105.9
'108.3
'105.0
'106.9
'106.0
'105.2
'105.7
'103.7
104.1
United
Kingdom
United
States'
97.4
102.1
104.3
104.0
100.1
100.0
102.2
107.3
110.1
'111.4
110.2
'110.7
'111.4
'110.6
'111.9
'110.9
'111.7
'111.3
'111.7
'111.6
'112.3
'112.9
112.9
Canada
Japan
118.4
123.2
129.3
135.5
143.1
145.2
147.9
148.2
151.4
153.7
152.2
152.4
153.0
153.4
153.9
153.7
153.7
153.9
154.1
154.4
155.1
155.1
155.4
155.7
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
154.4
154.9
155.7
156.3
156.6
156.7
157.0
157.3
157.8
158.3
158.6
158.6
159.1
159.6
Germany
Prance
104.8
105.6
108.1
111.4
115.0
116.9
118.4
119.3
119.1
119.3
118.8
118.5
118.8
119.5
119.7
119.4
119.3
119.1
119.6
119.9
119.5
119.6
119.5
119.3
104.9
106.3
109.2
112.2
116.2
120.9
125.2
128.6
130.8
132.6
131.5
132.2
132.2
132.3
132.6
132.8
133.2
133.1
133.0
133.0
132.9
133.2
133.9
134.4
120.9
124.2
128.6
133.0
137.2
140.6
143.5
145.9
148.4
151.5
149.9
150.4
151.3
151.6
151.9
151.7
151.5
151.1
151.6
152.0
151.9
152.1
152.5
152.8
Italy
United
Kingdom
134.4
141.1
150.4
159.5
169.8
178.8
186.3
193.6
204.0
212.0
209.0
209.6
210.2
211.4
212.2
212.7
212.2
212.4
213.1
213.3
213.9
214.1
214.5
214.7
119.7
125.6
135.4
148.2
156.9
162.7
165.3
169.3
175.2
179.4
176.5
177.3
178.0
179.3
179.6
179.8
179.1
179.9
180.7
180.7
180.8
181.4
181.4
182.1
Source: National sources ait reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic
Analysis ami International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).
Data relate to all urban consumers.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Goods: Imports (customs value)
Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)
f
hiwu (by
fhv end-use
1
t
1'
ivensus
oasis
category)
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 ...
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1996: Jan'
Feb'
Mar' ....
Apr'
May ....
June' ...
July ....
Aug'
Sept' ....
Oct' .....
Nov
Dec'
1997: Janf
1
BOP
basis
AutoInCap- moFoods, dusital
tive
Total, feeds, trial goods vehisup- except cles,
Census
and
2
plies
basis
bevauto- parts
and
anil
moerages mateentive
rials
gines
250.2
320.2
362.1
389.3
416.9
440.4
456.8
502.5
575.9
611.5
254.1
322.4
363.8
393.6
421.7
448.2
465.1
512.6
584.7
624.5
24.3
32.3
37.2
35.1
35.7
40.3
40.6
41.9
50.5
55.5
48.7
50.9
50.5
50.7
51.4
51.0
48.8
51.1
50.3
52.9
53.3
51.9
49.4
51.7
51.4
51.6
52.5
51.9
50.2
52.5
51.6
54.0
54.6
53.2
4.7
4.5
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.4
51.5
52.3
4.4
BOP
basis
Total,
Census
basis'
Auto- ConInCapmo- sumer
Poods, dusital
tive goods
trial goods vehifeeds, sup(nonand
except cles, food)
plies
bevexcept
autoparts
and
erages matemoand
automotive
enrials
gines tive
24.6
29.3
34.8
37.4
40.0
47.0
52.4
57.6
61.8
64.2
17.7
23.1
36.4
43.3
45.9
51.4
54.7
60.0
64.4
70.2
409.8
447,2
477,4
498.3
491.0
536.5
589.4
668.6
749.4
799.3
406.2
441.0
473.2
495.3
488.5
532.7
580.7
663.3
743.4
791.3
24.8
24.8
25.1
26.6
26.5
27.6
27.9
31.0
33.2
35.7
12.5
19.9
21.3
20.8
21.1
21.1
20.7
19.9
21.0
20.1
22.4
22.3
22.0
5.2
5.3
4.9
4.9
5.4
5.5
5.2
5.4
6.1
5.2
5.8
5.3
5.5
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.2
6.1
6.0
64.3
63.8
65.1
66.5
68.3
65.7
66.4
67.7
68.0
67.1
67.7
68.8
64.0
63.4
63.9
64.8
67.1
64.9
66.0
66.9
67.6
66.8
67.4
68.6
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
12.2
21.5
5.7
6.0
70.5
70.2
3.1
via.
1ncludes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.
2
Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
86.2
66.7
85.1 109.2
99.3 138.8
104.4 152.7
109.7 166.7
109.1 175.9
111.8 181.7
121.4 205.2
146.3 233.0
147.4 252.6
11.9
12.2
12.6
12.8
12.5
12.3
11.5
12.2
12.1
12.8
Services
(BOP basis)
C
h»ni toy
rtwena1 use category)*
Census
oasis
Balance of trade
(expo minus imports)
.
VAjV basis
Exports
Imports
Goods,
Census
basis
Goods
-152.1
-118.5
- 109.4
-101.7
— 66.7
-84.5
-115.6
— 150.6
— 158.7
— 1 66.8
- 159.6
6.6
- 127.0
11.4
-115.2
23.5
- 109.0
28.7
-74.1 - 44.2
-96.1
57.8
— 132.6
60.6
— 166.1
61.7
— 173.4
68.4
-187.8
73.5
Services
Goods
and
services
84.5
111.0
118.3 101.4
132.3 113.3
143.2 116.4
131.6 120.7
138.6 134.3
145.6 152.4
162.0 184.4
180.7 221.4
199.3 229.0
85.2
87.7
86.1
87.3
85.7
91.8
102.4
118.3
124.8
130.1
88.7
95.9
102.9
105.7
108.0
122.7
134.0
146.3
160.0
171.1
98.3
110.9
127.0
147.5
163.8
177.3
186.1
195.8
210.6
223.9
91.7
99.5
103.5
118.8
119.6
119.5
125.5
134.1
142.2
150.4
15.6
14.8
15.4
16.6
17.1
16.4
17.0
16.9
17.5
17.6
16.9
17.6
19.5
19.4
19.6
18.9
19.0
18.7
18.7
18.8
18.9
18.7
19.1
19.6
10.6
10.6
10.0
10.5
11.5
10.8
11.1
11.6
11.2
10.3
11.3
10.6
13.6
13.7
13.7
13.6
14.3
13.9
14.0
14.5
14.9
15.0
14.8
15.3
17.9
18.3
18.8
18.4
18.7
18.7
18.5
18.6
18.5
18.9
19.3
19.3
12.0
12.3
12.3
12.3
12.6
12.5
12.8
12.7
12.5
12.7
12.8
12.9
-14.7
-15.6
-12.9
-11.7
-12.5
-14.6
-13.2 • -15.7
- 14.5
-16.9
-13.0
-14.7
-17.6
-15.7
-14.4
-16.5
-16.0
-17.6
-12.8
-14.2
-12.8
-14.4
-16.9
- 15.3
5.9
6.0
6.6
6.1
6.1
6.2
5.7
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.4
6.4
-9,7
-6.9
-8.0
-9.7
-10.8
-8.5
-12.0
- 10.6
-11.6
-8.1
-8.0
-10.5
18.4
19.7
12.0
15.0
19.3
13.0
-18.0
-19.0
6.3
-12.7
-152.9
-115.5
-91.8
-80.3
—29.9
-38.3
— 72.0
- 104.4
— 105.1
— 114,3
NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data
shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.
Source; Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter of 1996, the goods deficit fell to $45.3 billion, from $51.9 billion in the third quarter. The
current account deficit fell to $41.4 billion, from $47.9 billion in the third quarter.
BILLONS OF DOLLARS*
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS •
-50
-50
-55
-55
1986
•SEASONAUYACUUSTBJ
SOURCE DewtTMB-ff OF COMMKCE
COUNd OF ECONOMIC ADVJS85
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits ( — ) ]
Services
Goods'
Period
Exports
Imports
Net
balance
Net
military
transac23
tions
Net
travel
and
transportation
receipts
Investment income
Other
services,
net
Balance
on
goods
and
services
Receipts Payments
on U.S. as- on foreign
sets
assets in
abroad
TJ.S.
Net
Balance
on goods, Unilateral
services, transfers,
and
net4
income
Balance
on
current
account
— 143,453
- 102,170
— 77,880
-59,439
- 14,028
-27,069
- 62,297
-108,539
-113,079
-122,623
— 23,939
-26,266
— 27,696
-35,219
4,510
-35,514
-37,640
-39,866
-35,075
-42,472
— 167,392
- 128^436
— 105,575
- 94,657
— 9,518
- 62,583
- 99,936
— 148,405
-148,154
— 165,095
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992 .
1993
1994 .
1995
1996 <"
250,208
320,230
362,120
389,307
416,913
440,352
456,832
502,463
575,940
611,669
— 409,765
-447^189
— 477,365
-498,337
- 490,981
— 536,458
— 589,441
— 668,584
- 749,364
— 799,343
159 557
- 126,959
— 115,245
-109,030
— 74,068
-96,106
-132,609
-166,121
-173,424
— 187,674
—3,844
-6^320
— 6,749
-7,599
— 5,274
— 1,448
880
1,963
3,585
2,809
— 7,613
-2,591
4,043
8,002
17,032
20,484
20,026
16,711
18,361
21,094
18,097
20,352
26,192
28,291
32,440
38,805
39,665
43,068
46,415
49,564
— 152,918
-115,518
— 91,758
-80,336
-29,872
-38,264
-72,039
- 104,379
- 105,064
-114,207
100,767
129,070
152,517
160,300
137,003
119,046
119,900
141,704
182,659
196,902
— 91,302
- 115,722
— 138,639
-139,402
- 121,159
-107,851
-110,158
- 145,863
- 190,674
— 205,318
9,465
13,348
13,878
20,897
15,844
11,195
9,742
- 4,159
- 8,016
— 8,416
1994: I
118,462
122,909
127,237
133,855
- 155,301
-163,993
- 171,652
- 177,638
-36,839
-41,084
-44,415
-43,783
-38
367
1,171
463
4,016
4,221
3,758
4,717
10,159
10,614
11,039
11,257
-22,702
-25,882
-28,447
-27,346
31,841
33,287
37,212
39,368
-30,678
-33,923
-38,801
-42,462
1,163
-636
- 1,589
- 3,094
-21,539 -8,169
-26,518 -9,507
-30,036 -9,975
-30,440 -12,215
-29,708
- 36,025
- 40,011
-42,655
1995:
138,551
142,983
144,984
149,422
-183,474
-190,910
-187,532
-187,448
-44,923
-47,927
-42,548
-38,026
628
859
1,120
978
3,770
3,834
5,087
5,670
11,010
11,410
12,006
11,987
-29,515
-31,824
-24,335
-19,391
44,100
46,779
45,269
46,513
-45,000
-47,641
- 49,630
-48,403
-900
-862
-4,361
- 1,890
-30,415
-32,686
-28,696
-21,281
-39,054
- 40,976
- 37,688
- 30,435
150,032
153,120
150,144
158,373
- 193,159
-200,490
-202,013
-203,681
-43,127
-47,370
-51,869
-45,308
489
725
515
1,080
5,358
5,346
4,956
5,430
12,650
12,341
12,119
12,453
-24,630
-28,958
-34,279
-26,345
47,549
48,062
48,696
52,594
-47,238
- 50,277
-52,794
-55,008
311
-2,215
-4,098
-2,414
-24,319 - 10,955
-31,173 -9,420
-38,377 -9,476
-28,759 -12,621
n
m
rv
I
n
in
rv
1996:
I'
n'
m'
WP
J
Adjusted
2
from Census data for differences in timing1 and coverage; excludes military.
Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports).
36
3
Quarterly
4
-8,639
-8,290
-8,992
-9,154
data are not seasonally adjusted.
Includes transfers of goods and services under U,S. military grant programs.
See p. 37 for continuation of bible.
-
35,274
40,593
47,853
41,380
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $56.7 billion in the fourth
quarter of 1996, following an increase of $33.2 billion in the third quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported
by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $33.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following a decrease
of $1.2 billion in the third quarter.
BIIUONS Of OCULARS'
200
BILLIONS Of DOUARS200
-
180
180
/-
160
160
/ 140
140
/
120
CHANGE IN
cnop^N ASSETS
-
100
«0
~
'/- -.
?
' \ /"
'
'^ .
•
'V
^/
40
'
-
x'
\
r»
-20
A
'\
r\
^*J \
~\J
V
> ;
1 ,
i
1
»\ ,1
1
20
0
IN THE U.S., NET /
\
'
f
80
v
/*
A''
A ,V
>\
V1
V\J
/
\
lY
A
-60
.
'I y
A ,.
\/
/""N'x
'
j,
80
-
v
60
40
-
V
20
/
0
A r*—\
v A
-20
s^\
\
1
CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
;XBROAD, NF
-
\
\
-40
A
A
A \
V
i < i
198A
1987
1
1988
I
i i i
1
1989
1990
1991
i
i
i
1992
1
1
1
1993
1
1
1994
1
1
1
~
/ \
\ V
100
-
120
100
^'
-80
120
/
N /- /
/
-
1
1
1995
-60
-80
\ -100
\
-120
1996
COUNCR OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increaso'capitj
Period
Total
1987 .
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996*1
1994: I
n
in
IV
1995: I
n
in
IV
1996: !••
n'
m--
IV
5
U.S.
official
reserve
assets35
9,149
-72,617
-3,912
-100,087
-168,744 -25,293
-2,158
-74,011
5,763
-57,881
-68,622
3,901
- 194,609 -1,379
5,346
-150,695
-9,742
-307,856
6,668
-306,830
-59
-36,897
3,537
-28,627
-165
-25,569
2,033
-59,603
-61,747 -5,318
- 108,299 -2,722
-1,893
-39,595
191
-98,214
17
-68,723
-523
-50,699
7,489
-73,313
-315
-114,095
Other TJ.S.
Government
assets
1,006
2,967
1,259
2,307
2,911
-1,657
-342
-341
-280
-665
399
491
-288
-943
-154
-179
252
-199
-152
-353
166
-326
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow (-t-)J
)]
TJ.S.
private
assets
-82,771
-99,141
-144,710
-74,160
-66,555
-70,866
-192,889
-155,700
-297,834
-312,833
-37,237
-32,655
-25,116
-60,693
-56,275
-105,398
-37,954
-98,206
-68,588
-49,823
-80,968
-113,454
Total
242,983
240,265
218,490
122,192
94,241
154,285
250,996
285,376
424,462
525,046
83,235
45,889
83,619
72,632
90,995
115,421
118,816
99,229
99,475
100,553
142,970
182,048
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
Foreign
official
assets3
Other
foreign
assets
45,387
39,758
8,503
33,910
17,389
40,477
72,153
40,253
109,757
122,778
11,036
9,166
19,785
266
21,822
37,380
39,186
11,369
52,021
13,566
24,235
32,956
197,596
200,507
209,987
88,282
76,853
113,808
178,843
245,123
314,705
402,268
72,199
36,723
63,834
72,366
69,173
78,041
79,630
87,860
47,454
86,987
118,735
149,092
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special Total (sum
Of which:
drawing
of the items
Seasonal
rights
with sign
adjustment
(SDKs)
reversed)
discrepancy
-2,974
-11,743
55,830
46,476
-26,843
-23,080
43,550
13,724
31,548
-53,122
-16,630
18,763
-18,039
29,626
9,806
33,854
-41,533
29,420
4,522
-9,261
-21,804
-26,573
5,105
274
-6,490
1,107
6,519
-266
-7,407
1,153
6,653
-449
-8,318
2,119
TJ.S. official
reserve
assets, net5
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
45,798
47,802
74,609
83,316
77,721
71,323
73,442
74,335
85,832
75,089
76,809
75,732
76,532
74,335
86,761
90,063
87,152
85,832
84,212
83,455
75,509
75,089
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
Page
TOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME. AND SPENDING
Gross Domestic Product
Real Gross Domestic Product
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product
Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
Real Private Fixed Investment by Type
Business Investment and Plans
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
-
EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
-
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
*
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—rManufacttiring and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
.
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
,.„
MONEY. CREDIT. AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
,
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
U.S. International Transactions
,
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
P Preliminary.
r
Revised.
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
c
rtrt
38
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