Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1988

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100th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
MARCH 1988
(Includes data available as of March 30, 1988)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1988

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
JOHN MELCHER (Montana)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVE SYMMS (Idaho)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York)
J. ALEX McMILLAN (North Carolina)

JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce,

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:
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TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
In the fourth quarter of 1987, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.6
percent (annual rate) or $83.4 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.8 percent and the
implicit price deflator rose 2.7 percent.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,800

SEASON/

LLY ADJUSTED ANNU

4,800

AL RATES

^^-^^

4,400

—

^^

GNP
IN CD RRENT DOLLAR 5

4,000

•.^""

4,000

—

. -

. - _ - - ' "—

3,600
„•••"""""

—

—

./'_...-'"

3,200

"

AGNP

/-—

—
/

2,800

-^

IN 19 82 DOLLARS

^

—

^

2,400

—

—

2,000

\ \ \
1979
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN

\

\

1

\

1

1981

1980

I

I

1

!
1983

1982

i

i

1

1

1984

]

I

1

1

1986

1985

i !
1987

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER S

OF COMMERCE

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Govern ment purch ases of
goo< s and serv tees

Exports md imports of goods
md service?

Federal

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total

National
defense

Nondefense

and

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 r

2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,405.7
3,772.2
4,010.3
4,235.0
4,488.5

1,732.6
1,915.1
2, 050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,629.4
2,799.8
2,967.8

437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
641.6
671.0
717.5

32.1
33.9
26.3
-6.1
-58.9
-79.2
- 105.5
-119.6

351.0
382.8
361.9
352.5
383.5
369.9
376.2
427.8

318.9
348.9
335.6
358.7
442.4
449.2
481.7
547.4

530.3
588.1
641.7
675.0
735.9
818.6
869.7
922.8

208.1
242.2
272.7
283.5
310.5
353.9
366.2
379.4

142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
234.3
259.3
277.8
295.2

65.4
74.8
78.9
69.1
76.2
94.6
88.4
84.2

322.2
345.9
369.0
391.5
425.3
464.7
503.5
543.4

2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,412.8
3,704.5
4,000.3
4,219.3
4,442.5

1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV

3,212.5
3,545.8
3,851.8

2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4

409.6
579.8
661.8

14.1
-25.8
-67.9

335.9
364.7
385.7

321.9
390.5
453.6

671.8
676.1
764.5

293.2
276.1
326.0

205.4
221.5
244.1

87.7
54.6
81.9

378.7
400.0
438.5

3,272.4
3,514.8
3,806.8

1985: I
II
Ill
IV

3,921.1
3,973.6
4,042.0
4,104.4

2,549.9
2,602.0
2,665.4
2,700.1

638.6
648.4
628.6
650.8

-51.5
-77.3
-84.7
-103.5

376.3
370.6
364.2
368.7

427.7
447.8
448.9
472.2

784.1
800.5
832.8
857.0

336.3
339.4
361.9
378.0

250.2
253.7
265.1
268.2

86.1
85.7
96.8
109.8

447.8
461.1
470.9
479.0

3,899.8
3,955.1
4,044.4
4,101.9

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

4,174.4
4,211.6
4,265.9
4,288.1

2,737.9
2,765.8
2,837.1
2,858.6

683.4
679.4
660.8
660.2

-93.8
-100.8
-110.5
-116.9

373.5
371.3
376.6
383.3

467.3
472.1
487.1
500.2

846.9
867.2
878.5
886.3

356.7
368.4
371.2
368.6

266.6
278.2
287.6
279.0

90.1
90.2
83.6
89.6

490.2
498.8
507.3
517.7

4,136.1
4,184.0
4,262.4
4,294.6

1987: I
II
Ill
IV r

4,377.7
4,445.1
4,524.0
4,607.4

2,893.8
2,943.7
3,011.3
3,022.6

699.9
702.6
707.4
760.2

-112.2
-118.4
-123.7
-124.3

397.3
416.5
439.2
458.1

509.5
534.8
562.9
582.4

896.2
917.1
929.0
948.8

366.9
379.6
382.1
388.9

287.5
294.5
299.0
299.8

79.4
85.1
83.0
89.2

529.3
537.6
546.9
559.9

4,326.0
4,404.8
4,501.1
4,537.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross privat c
dome stic investrnent

Govern nent pureh ases of
good s and serv ices

Export s and imp >rts of
good s and ser\ ices

Federal

Final
sales

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential
fixed

business
invento-

137.0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.9
174.6
196.4
196.4

-6.9
23.9
-24.5
-6.4
62.3
7.4
13.8
42.9

57.0
49.4
26.3
-19.9
-84.0
-108.2
-145.8
-135.5

388.9
392.7
361.9
348.1
371.8
365.3
377.4
425.8

332.0
343.4
335.6
368.1
455.8
473.6
523.2
561.3

620.5
629.7
641.7
649.0
677.7
726.9
754.5
771.7

246.9
259.6
272.7
275.1
290.8
324.2
332.5
336.0

171.2
180.3
193.8
206.9
218.5
236.7
250.7
264.2

75.7
79.3
78.9
68.2
72.3
87.5
81.8
71.7

373.6
370.1
369.0
373.9
387.0
402.7
422.1
435.8

3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,285.5
3,439.1
3,600.1
3,699.5
3,778.1

289.5
266.0
300.5

201.4
211.6
225.3

88.2
75.2

370.6
376.2
392.7

3,218.6
3,338.1
3,493.5

229.8
232.8
243.3
241.1

78.6
77.8
89.3
104.2

395.0
401.4
406.1
408.4

3,549.2
3,569.9
3,628.7
3,652.5

in

Exports

exports

Imports

Total
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and
local

1980
1981
1982
1988
1984
1985
1986
1987 '.

3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,279.1
3,501.4
3,607.5
3,713.3
3,821.0

2,000.4
2,050.7
2,146.0
2,249.3
2,352.6
2,450.5
2,497.2

379.2
395.2
366.7
361.2
425.2
454.1
443.8
448.3

1982: IV
1983: IV

2,078.7
2,191.9
2,281.1

352.3
390.4
444.4

115.8
159.9
169.6

-59.3
27.0
41.7

11.7
— 46.2
-94.8

336.0
355.5
376.6

324.3
401.6
471 .4

660.1

IV

3,159.3
3,365.1
3,535.2

1985: I
II
Ill
IV

3,568.7
3,587.1
3,623.0
3,650.9

2,314.1
2,337.0
2,376.1
2,383.2

440.0
457.2
454.1
465.2

172.6
171.2
174.9

19.5
17.3
-5.7
-1.6

-81.0
-107.7
-114.9
- 129.3

369.7
364.7
360.5
366.5

450.7
472.4
475.4
495.8

703.4

712.1
738.6
753.7

308.4
310.7
332.5
345.3

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

3,698.8
3,704.7
3,718.0
3,731.5

2,409.7
2,434.3
2,477.5
2,480.5

453.2
441.0
437.7

185.9
196.5
201.1
202.2

-123.0
-146.8
-161.6
-151.8

371.5
370.2
379.6
388.3

494.4
517.0

443.2

35.3
28.1
6.1
-14.4

541.2
540.1

737.6
751.6
757.2
771.8

322.1
330.6
332.6
344.6

240.0
250.1
259.8
252.7

82.0
80.4
72.8
91.9

415.5
421.0
424.6
427.1

3,663.4
3,676.7
3,711.9
3,745.8

1987: I
II
Ill
IV r.

3,772.2
3,795.3
3,835.9
3,880.8

2,475.9

426.0

2,487.5
2,520.7
2,504.6

437.9
463.8
465.6

198.2
196.8
193.5
197.0

47.6
39.0
24.6
60.5

-135.2
-132.7
- 138.4
-135.8

397.8
414.5
437.1
453.5

533.0
547.2
575.6
589.3

759.6
766.7
771.7
788.9

327.3
332.6
336.3
347.6

257.4
263.5
268.3
267.7

69.9
69.1
67.9
80.0

432.3
434.1
435.4

3,724.5
3,756.3
3,811.4
3,820.3

1984:

2,024.2

179.7

642.2
693.2

54.4

441.3

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Personal c onsumption
expen ditures
Period

national
product

Gross ])rivate
domestic i ivestment

Exports an imports of
goods an services

Gove rnment pure lases of got ds and
ser vices
Federal

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Services

dential

Residential fixed

Exports

Imports

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 '

85.7
94.0
100.0
103.9
107.7
111.2
114.1
117.5

86.6
94.6
100.0
104.1
108.1
111.8
114.3
118.8

89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.8
104.5
104.9
106.6

89.4
96.9
100.0
102.1
105.0
107.5
107.1
111.9

83.9
92.6
100.0
106.2
111.6
117.1
122.5
127.6

85.1
93.4
100.0
98.8
97.9
97.5
98.5
98.9

89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.0
108.2
111.1
116.1

90.2
97.5
100.0
101.3
103.2
101.3
99.7
100.5

96.0
101.6
100.0
97.4
97.1
94.8
92.1
97.5

84.3
93.3
100.0
103.1
106.8
109.2
110.2
112.9

83.4
92.9
100.0
103.6
107.2
109.5
110.8
111.7

86.4
94.3
100.0
101.4
105.5
108.1
108.1
117.3

86.2
93.4
100.0
104.7
109.9
115.4
119.3
124.7

1982: IT
1983: IV
1984: IV

101.7
105.4
109.0

101.8
105.7
109.3

100.7
103.1
104.1

101.0
103.1
105.8

102.7
108.3
113.5

100.7
98.3
97.9

99.1
103.1
107.2

100.0
102.6
102.4

99.3
97.2
96.2

101.3
103.8
108.5

102.0
104.7
108.3

99.5
100.3
108.9

102.2
106.3
111.7

1985: I
II
Ill
IV

109.9
110.8
111.6
112.4

110.2
111.3
112.2
113.3

104.6

106.3
107.4
107.6
108.6

114.8
116.3
118.0
119.4

98.0
97.5
97.3
97.1

107.6
107.6
108.0
109.5

101.8
101.6
101.0
100.6

94.9
94.8
94.4
95.2

109.0
109.3
108.8
109.5

108.9
109.0
109.0
111.2

109.5
110.1
108.4
105.4

113.4
114.9
116.0
117.3

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

112.9
113.7
114.7
114.9

113.6
113.6
114.5
115.2

104.5

107.8
106.2
106.8
107.5

120.7
122.0
123.3
124.3

97.2
98.4
99.0
99.2

110.0
111.0
111.3
112.2

100.6
100.3
99.2
98.7

94.5
91.3
90.0
92.6

110.7
111.4
111.6
107.0

111.1
111.2
110.7
110.4

109.8
112.2
115.0
97.5

118.0
118.5
119.5
121.2

1987: I
II

116.1
117.1
117.9
118.7

116.9
118.3
119.5
120.7

105.4

109.8
111.7
112.6
113.6

125.5
126.9
128.3
129.8

99.3
99.2
98.4
98.7

113.7
115.7
117.8
117.4

99.9
100.5
100.5
101.0

95.6
97.7
97.8
98.8

112.1
114.1
113.6
111.9

111.7
111.8
111.4
112.0

113.6
123.1
122.2
111.5

122.4
123.8
125.6
126.9

mr

IV

104.5
104.6

104.3
104.6
105.4
105.2

106.1
107.4
107.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis




CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesj

Gn ss national pr( duct
Period

Constant
(1082)
dollars

Current
dollars

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 '.
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV
1985: I
II

7.6
10.8
6.3
5.6
6.0
4.2

12.4
4.7
7.4

5.5
7.1
6.3
7.0
3.6
5.3
2.1
8.6
6.3
7.3
7.6

:

IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV r.

9.0
9.7
6.4
3.9
3.7

1.9
-2.5
3.6
6.8
3.0
2.9
2.9
.6
7.3
1.7
3.8
2.1
4.1
3.1
5.4
.6
1.4
1.5

3.7

Chain priee
index

deflator

-0.2

8.9

11.7

Ill

Implicit

Personal consumption e \penditures

9.0
9.4
6.3
4.1

4.2

2.5
4.3
4.8

3.5
2.8
•

1.2

9.0
8.8
8.2
6.5
6.0
10.3
9.7
7 2

4.1

9.4
8.4

3.7
2.2

10.1
5.3
5.7

29

4.1

2.9
3.4

3.4
1.7
1.9
2.6
2.0
4.2
3.7
3.3
3.1

-0.2

7.1

4.0
4.0
3.2

2.8

2.7

10.6
10.5

2.7
3.4

3.9
3.1
4.0
3.8

Implicit
priee
deflator

Chain price
index

Fixedweighted
priee index

(1982
weights)

3.6

4.1

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

9.3
9.3
6.2
4.1
4.0

3.9
3.5
2.4
3.2

3.2
2.6
3.0
3.6
4.7
3.0
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.9
1.8
2.9
3.6
.7

4.4

Fixedweighted
price index
(1!)82
weights)

2.6
2.3
4.5

10.7

3.1
5.0
7.1
9.5
1.5

4.1
3.4

3.6

10.7

9.2
5.7
4.1
3.8
3.4

10.5

10.9

9.2
5.7
4.2
3.9
3.6

4.2
1.9

99

3.9

4.1

9.0
5.6
4.2
4.0
3.7
2.6
4.2

5.3
5.5
4.3
5.9
4.0
6.9
1.2
4.5
4.1
7.3
.5

4.4
4.3
3.0

4.8
4.1
3.1

4.8
4.1
3.2

3.3
4.1

3.5
4.4
3.2
4.2

3.4
4.5
3.3
4.2

1.5
.3
3.6

1.7
.3
3.6
3.0

1.3
4.6
4.8
4.6

— .7
1.9
5.4

— 2.5

3.3
4.0
1.1
.0

3.2
2.5
6.0
4.!)

4.1
4.1

ii.o

3.0
5.5
5.2
4.0

5.7
5.2
4.0
4.2

4.0

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarte

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Curren t-dollar cos t and profit per unit o output (dc liars) '

omestic
prodt ct of
nonfii ancial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Gross (

Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 T.
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987:

I
II
Ill

IV
1

Current
dollars

1982
dollars

1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,914.2
2,146.7
2,282.8

1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.0
2,036.5
2,127.1
2,182.2
2,238.3
1,760.2
1,940.5
2,069.5
2,091.1
2,115.1
2,148.7
2,153.5
2,176.7
2,171.9
2,180.8
2,199.3
2,207.6
2,219.9

2,376.1

2,493.0
1,779.4
2,012.5
2,201.8
2,230.9
2,266.2
2,312.4
2,321.8
2,353.3
2,358.6
2,387.7
2,404.7
2,434.8
2,465.4
2,521.1

9. 550.8

2,254.4

2,271.2

Total
cost
and
profit 2

0.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.054
1.073
1.089
1.114
1.011
1.037
1.064
1.067
1.071
1.076
1.078
1.081
1.086
1.095
1.093
1.103
1.111
1.118
1.123

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
0.095
.109
.125
.123
.118
.119
.121
.123
.131
.120
.118
.119
.119
.118
.120
.119
.121
.122

.123
.123
.124
.123
.123

Output is measured by gross domestic- product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-

lars.

Corp arate profits with
inventory valuation a nd capital
consuniption adjus tments
Indirect
business
taxes 3

0.077
.090
.094
.098
.100
.103
.104
.106
.096
.098
.102
.102
.104
.102
.103
.104

.101
.106
.104
.105
.107
.107
.107
3
4

Compensation of
employees

0.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.702
.715
.729
.685
.680
.694
.698
.701
.699
.709
.709
.714
.717
.720
.724
.728
.727
.736

Net
interest

Total

0.031
.037
.043
.037
.039
.043
.045
.047
.042
.037
.042
.043
.043
.043
.044

.045
.046
.046
.045
.045
.046
.048
.049

0.068
.078
.063
.089
.109
.107
.103
.108
.057
.103
.107
.106
.106
.114
.103
.104
.104
.104
.102
.106
.106
.114
.108

Profits
tax

0.037
.035
.026
.032
.036
.033
.036
.048
.023
.036
.032
.033
.031
.034
.033
.033
.034
.037
.040
.045
.047
.051
.049

Profits
after

0.031
.044
.037
.057
.073
.074
.068
.061
.034
.066
.075
.072
.075
.080
.070
.071
.069
.068
.062
.061
.059
.063
.060

Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)

Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)

17.096
17.194
17.318
17.867
18.288
18.674
18.969
19.041
17.382
18.029
18.359
18.458
18.588
18.849
18.787
18.941
18.930
18.974
19.073
18.933
18.964
19.119

9.939
10.861
11.699
12.124
12.570
13.103
13.566
13.850
11.914
12.261
12.746
12.883
13.022
13.173
13.324
13.437
13.525
13.608
13.724
13.708
13.798
13.897

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

2

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.




Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department, of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Compensation of
emplov-

National
income

Proprietor s' income
with in 'entorv
valuation a nd capital
eonsunaption
adjust nents

Farm

2,518.4
2,719.5
3,028.6
3,229.9
3 422 0
3,635.3
2,548.2
2,851.5
3,096.1
3,156.5
3,204.4
3,254.4
3,304.4
3,364.2
3,414.1
3,438.7
3,471.0
3,548.3
3,593.3
3,659.0
3,740.6

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 r
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:

IV
IV
IV
I
II
Ill
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV

1,907.0
2,020.7
2,213.9
2,370.8
2,504.9
2,647.6
1,931.1
2,092.7
2,272.7
2,314.9
2,351.5
2,386.3
2,430.5
2,464.8
2,487.6
2,515.1
2 552 0
2,589.9
2,623.4
2,663.5
2,713.5

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital

Profits wi th inventory valuation
adjustmei it and witho it capital
consu mption adjus trnent

tion
adjustment

Nonfarm

24.6
12.4
30.5
29.7
37.2
48.4
28.5
19.3
28.1
31.7
32.2
22.9
31.7
28.0
48.1
36.3
36.6
51.3
47.3
40.6
54.3

Corpora e profits wit i inventory valuation an capital
consur option adjust ments

13.6
13.2
8.5
9.0
16.7
19.3
15.8
12.4
5.6
7.3
9.1
9.3
10.1
14.0
17.4
17.2
18.4
20.0
18.9
17.3
20.9

150.9
178.4
204.0
227.6
252.6
279.0
159.8
188.6
209.7
220.4
224,2
229.5
236.3
242.8
250.1
256.2
261.2
269.7
275.8
282.1
288.4

150.0
213.7
266.9
277.6
284.4
304.0
146.1
248.5
266.9
265.6
274.2
292.8
277.8
288.0
282.3
286.4
281.1
294.0
296.8
314.9
310.2

Profits
before tax

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

169.6
207.6
240.0
224.8
231.9
273.3
164.1
231.5
226.1
217.6
218.0
230.2
233.5
218.9
224.4
236.3
247.9
257.0
268.7
284.9
282.8

-10.4
-10.9
-5.8
— .7
6.5
-17.5
-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-1.5
1.8
6.5
-9.8
17.8
11.3
6.0
-8.9
-11.3
— 20.0
-17.6
-21.3

159.2
196.7
234.2
224. 1
238.4
255.8
150.7
223.4
224.6
216.1
219.8
238.8
223.7
236.7
235.6
242.4
239.0
245.7
248.8
267.3
261.5

Capital
consump-

Net
interest

adjust-

-9.2
17.0
32.7
53.5
46.0
48.2
-4.5
25.1
42.3
49.5
54.4
56.0
54.2
51.3
46.7
44.0
42.1
48.2
48.0
47.7
48.7

272.3
281.0
304.8
315.3
326.1
337.1
266.9
290.2
313.1
316.5
313 2
313.7
317.9
326.6
328.7
327.5
321.7
323.6
331.1
340.6
353.3

Source: Department oi' Commerce, Bureau of [<>(

contributions for social insurance. (See ;tlso p. o.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Non durable g ods

Durabi goods

consumption
expend!-

Total
durable
goods

*

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 '
19821983:
1984:
1985:

IV
IV
IV
I
II
Ill
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV '.

2,050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,829.4
2,799.8
2,967.8
2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4
2,549.9
2,602.0
2,665.4
2,700.1
2,737.9
2,765.8
2,837.1
2,858.6
2,893.8
2,943.7
3,011.3
3,022.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




252.7
289.1
335.5
368.7
402.4
413.7
263.8
310.0
346.7
358.2
362.4
383.7
370.5
375.9
386.4
427.6
419.8
396.1
409.0
436.8
413.0

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

108.9
130.4
157.4
177.6
194.9
193.9
115.7
144.4
162.3
171.1
173.3
191.9
174.1
177.4
184.2
217.0
201.2
177.6
189.6
215.2
193.3

Furniture
household
equipment

95.7
107.1
118.8
128.7
139.9
146.7
99.1
112.4
122.7
125.0
127.0
129.5
133.5
134.7
138.3
142.9
143.8
146.0
146.0
147.9
146.8

Other

Total
nondurable

Food

Scrv-

Clothing and
shoes

line
and oil

124.4
135.1
146.7
157.2
167.5
177.0
126.5
141.1
149.8
153.2
155.8
158.8
160.9
163.4
167.2
169.8
169.6
174.0
175.8
178.7
179.6

89.1
90.2
90.0
.92.6
75.3
80.3
89.8
91.9
89.0
90.6
94.3
93.5
92.1
87.7
74.4
70.6
68.4
75.8
80.6
82.7
82.1

Other
Domestics

^

48.1
51.6
59.3
62.4
67.6
73.1
49.0
53.2
61.8
62.1
62.1
62.4
62.9
63.8
64.0
67.8
74.8
72.5
73.5
73.7
72.9

771.0
816.7
867.3
.91.3.1
939.4
982.9
786.6
837.9
879.6
894.4
910.4
918.4
929.3
936.8
934.3
940.0
946.3
969.9
982.1
986.4
993.1

398.8
421.9
448.5
472.8
497.8
515.8
407.0
430.8
456.1
463.5
471.2
474.9
481.7
489.4
494.7
499.6
507.5
514.8
515.0
514.0
519.3

Retail sales o!'
new pa ssenger
cars (m lions of
un ts)

158.7
169.5
182.1
1,90.5
198.8
209.7
163.4
174.0
184.7
187.2
189.1
191.2
194.5
196.3
198.0
200.0
200.8
205.3
210.7
211.0
212.0

1,027.0
1,128.7
1,227.6
1,347.5
1,458.0
1,571.2
1,066.5
1,167.9
1,267.1
1,297.3
1,329.2
1,363.3
1,400.3
1,425.2
1,445.1
1,469.5
1,492.4
1,527.7
1,552.6
1,588.1
1,616.5

5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
8.2
7.1
6.0
7.4
7.7
8.3
8.1
9.3
7.1
7.7
7.9
9.5
7.8
6.7
7.0
8.0
6.7

Imports

o •>
2.4
2.4

2.»
3.2
3.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.5
2.8
3.0
3.6
3.3

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Persona! income rose $33.9 billion (annual rate) in February, following a rise of $10.6 billion in January. The
changes reflect several special factors: Subsidy payments to farmers affected both the February and January
changes; cost-of-living adjustments in several transfer programs and changes in social insurance programs affected
the January change. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $25.2 billion in February and
$18.0 billion in January.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

4,200

1 4,200

3,200

3,200

1,600

1,600
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

800

800

OTHER INCOME

400

400
TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

him

Mill

200
1980

1981

1982

1984

1983

1985

200

1986

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1987

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Proprietor ' income 3
Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 T
1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Novr
Dec r
1988: Jan r.
Feb"

Total
personal
income

2,258.4
2,520.9

2,670.8
2,838.6
3,108.7
3,327.0
3,534.3
3,746.5
3,671.2
3,683.4
3,701.9
3,708.5
3,715.3
3,739.2
3,760.6
3,783.2
3,854.4
3,839.8
3,869.1
3,879.7
3,913.6

salary

1,372.0

1,510.3
1,586.1
1,676.6
1,838.6
1,974.9
2,089.1
2,212.7
2,166.4
2,173.1
2,181.5
2,193.7
2,198.9
2,209.7
2,228.8
2,239.8
2,257.6
2,271.9
2,281.1
2,294.4
2,309.8

Other labor
income

Farm

138.4
150.3
163.6
173.6
182.9
192.3
201.1
210.2

20.5
30.7
24.6
12.4
30.5
29.7
37.2
48.4

206.7

56.2

207.4
210.0
209.0
209.6
210.4
211.1
211.9
212.7
213.5
214.4
215.2
216.1

55.6
58.0
41.6
42.3
43.9
37.7
40.2
77.5
37.5
47.9
39.7
48.2

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Nonfarm

160.1
156.1
150.9
178.4
204.0
227.6
252.6
279.0
270.2
273.2
274.1
275.8
277.7
279.9
282.8
283.6
286.0
289.1
290.2
291.5
294.8

Rental
income of
persons 4

6.6
13.3
13.6
13.2
8.5
9.0
16.7
19.3
20.0
20.4
19.7
18.9
18.2
17.8
17.3
16.7
19.1
21.3
22.5
22.9
23.4

Personal
dividend
income

52.9
61.3
63.9
68.7
75.5
76.3
81.2
87.5
84.4
85.0
85.3
86.5
87.0
87.9
88.8
89.4
90.0
90.5
91.0
91.4
92.2

Personal
interest
income

271.9
335.4
369.7
393.1
444.7
476.5
497.6

516.2
499.8
501.6
503.8
506.3
508.8
514.0
519.8
526.2
533.0
538.9
544.5
549.1
553.5

Transfer
payments 5

Less:
Persona!
contributions
for social
insurance

324.7
368.1
410.6
442.6
456.6

88.6
104.5
112.3
120.1
132.7

489.7
518.3
543.1
534.5
534.3
537.3
545.4
541.7
545.2
545.2
547.0
551.4
550.8
551.8
565.2
566.4

148.9
159.6
169.9
167.0
167.3
167.7
168.6
168.9
169.6
170.8
171.6
172.8
173.7
174.3
189.7
190.8

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,799.0
3,052.1
3,273.5
3,475.2
3,676.6
3,594.1
3,607.2
3,622.8
3,645.1
3,651.2
3,673.5
3,701.1
3,721.1
3,755.0
3,780.4
3,799.2
3,818.0
3,843.3

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1987.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

8,000

6,000

6,000
1979

1987

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

Personal
iiH'omf!

Less:
Persona!
tax and
nontax
payments

Eduils'
Disposable
personal
income

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Less:
Personal
outlays '

Equals:
Personal
saving

Disposable
personal
income in
1982
dollars
(billions)

Per c ipita
disposabk personal
ine me

Current
dollars

2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,108.7
3,327.0
3,534.3
3,746.5

340.5
393.3
409.3
410.5
440.2
485.9
512.2
564.8

1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,428.1
2,668.6
2,841.1
3,022.1
3,181.7

Current
dollars

3982
dollars

1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,297.4
2,504.5
2,714.1
2,891.5
3,062.7

136.8
159.4
153.9
130.6
164.1
127.1
130.6
119.0

2,214.3
2,248.6
2,261.5
2,331.9
2,469.8
2,542.2
2,645.1
2,677.2

8,421
9,243
9,724
10,340
11,257
11,872
12,508
13,050

Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
persona!
income

Having as
percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) 2

PerceiIt

Dolla rs

Billio ns of dollar

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 r
1987 .

1982
dollars

Per eapit i personal
eonsu ription
expen jitures

9,722
9,769
9,724
9,930
10,419
10,622
10,947
10,980

7,607
8,320
8,818
9,515
10,253
10,987
11,588
12,172

8,783
8,794
8,818
9,139
9,489
9,830
10,142
10,242

— 1.1
.5
— .5
2.1
4.9
1.9
3.1
.3

7.5
6.8
5.4
6.1
4.5
4.3
3.7

9,749
10,151
10,491
10,513
10,705
10,592
10,679
10,842
11,024
10,968
10,956
11,008
10,865
10,958
11,090

9,068
9,825
10,479
10,694
10,888
11,124
11,239
11,371
11,461
11,729
11,789
11,910
12,090
12,337
12,352

8,904
9,299
9,587
9,705
9,779
9,916
9,920
10,008
10,088
10,242
10,229
10,190
10,216
10,327
10,235

1.2
9.1
1.7

6.2
5.8
5.8

.8
7.5
-4.2
3.3

4.8
5.7
3.4
4.1

6.2
6.9
-2.0
-.4

4.7
5.5
3.6
3.6

1.9
-5.1
3.5
4.9

4.4
3.0
2.8
4.8

7.1

227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,051
239,323
241,620
243,812

S easonally adjusted anr ual rates

1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:

IV
IV
IV
I
II
III....
IV
1986: I
II
III....
IV
1987: I
II
III....
IV r...

2,729.2
2,941.8
3,188.3
3,259.2
3,304.4
3,338.2
3,406.4
3,463.4
3,526.6
3,553.6
3,593.6
3,662.0
3,708.6
3,761.0
3,854.4




411.1
413.9
459.7
497.0
455.9
491.0
499.7
497.4
504.2
515.3
532.0
536.1
578.0
565.7
579.4

2,318.1
2,527.9
2,728.6
2,762.2
2,848.4
2,847.2
2,906.6
2,966.0
3,022.4
3,038.2
3,061.6
3,125.9
3,130.6
3,195.3
3,275.0

2,174.9
2,382.5
2,571.3
2,631.0
2,685.6
2,751.5
2,788.1
2,827.6
2,856,4
2,929.4
2,952.6
2,987.5
3,037.4
3,106.5
3,119.3

143.1
145.4
157.3
131.2
162.8
95.7
118.5
138.4
166.0
108.9
109.0
138.4
93.2
88.8
155.7

2,276.1
2,392.7
2,496.3
2,506.8
2,558.4
2,538.2
2,565.5
2,610.5
2,660.2
2,653.2
2,656.7
2,674.6
2,645.5
2,674.7
2,713.8

9,929
10,725
11,467
11,584
11,919
11,882
12,099
12,318
12,525
12,560
12,626
12,865
12,858
13,090
13,384

233,466
235,707
237,946
238,452
238,977
239,618
240,246
240,782
241,313
241,896
242,489
242,971
243,480
244,094
244,703

FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1987, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $12.6 billion (annual
rate) and net farm income rose $12.2 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
24

240
200

^—

160

1

f

~~~-^

^,

^_

.
1

'

—-_^

120

GRC>SS FARM INCC3ME

80

80
60

_^

r

•

40

,»
x

/
f

\

/

•*»

\
20
V

\

\
\

,
i
i
i

1

i
t
\

""""""" «.'

N

"'

/
\ /
\;
*

x

%v/

-"'

i

_,'

|

\

10

i

1 ^- *" V /

\

— -*

,
V ;' \x
\ /
*
\i
\

%

i
i-I
i
!

10

\
N ET FARM INCC)ME

i

\ i
\ i
M

u

1

1
1979

1

1 1 1

I

1980

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1982

1981

1

1983

1

1
1984

1

1

1

1

1985

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1

1

1

1

1986

1

1

1987

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

In come of farm ope rators from farm ng
(jross farm incom e
T»

'

Net farni income

1

Gas h marketing rece ipts

Total '
Total

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987"
1985: I
II
Ill
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I r
II r r
Ill
IV p




149.3
166.3
163.5
153.1

174.7
166.0
159.5
162.5
168.5
164.0
159.5
172.1
149.8
168.8
154.7
164.8
165.9
155.1
158.2
170.8

Livestock and
products

139.7
141.6
142.6

68.0
69.2
70.3

136.6
142.3
144.2
135.2
134.7
137.9
138.0
144.8
156.1
134.4
130.6
135.0
140.7
131.7
131.9
140.5
134.7

69.4
72.9
69.8
71.6
74.8
69.9
69.0
68.9
71.4
68.3
66.8
77.8
73.3
72.5
72.0
79.0
75.5

UK Government payments, other farm cash
nd livestock commodities valued at average

Crops

71.7
72.5
72.3
67.1
69.4
74.4

63.6
59.9
68.0
68.9
76.0
84.7
66.0
63.8
57.2
67.4
59.2
59.9
61.5
59.2

V 1
f
inventory
changes 2

-6.3

6.5
— 1.4
-10.9

6.2
— 2.7
-3.3
-3.8

1.1

24
-4.2
-5.1
-4.2
-3.5
-3.0
-2.4
-5.3
-4,6
-3.3
-2.1

Production
expenses

Current
dollars

133.1
139.4
140.0
140.4
142.7
133.7
122.1
119.6

138.3
135.3
132.2
129.0
125.7
122.9
120.6
119.0
118.1
119.9
119.9
120.4

3

16.1
26.9
23.5
12.7
32.0
32.3
37.5
42.9
30.2
28.7
27.3
43.1
24.1
45.9
34.2
45.8
47.8
35.2
38.2
50.4

Income in current dollars divided hy the GNP implicit price deflator.
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.

1982 dollars 3

18.8
28.6
23.5
12.2
29.7
29.0
32.9

36.5
27.5
25.9
24.5
38.4
21.4
40.3
29.8
39.9
41.2
30.0
32.4
42.5

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the fourth quarter of 1987, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $2.1 billion
(annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $2.3 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

320

320

280

120

80

80

40

40

1987
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Bilhons of dollars; quarterly data at .seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Pr jfits

P rofits after U X

(before t ax) with inve ntory valuati on adjustmen t '
Do mestie indust ^ies

Period

Total

1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 r
1987
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:

IV
IV
IV
I
11
Ill
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV "




Profits
beiore tax

Nonfinancial
Total 2
Financial

Total 3

Manufacturing

Tax

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

54.7
63.6
66.9
71.5
79.0
81.3
86.8
93.8

97.6
81.8
39.6
58.9
67.0
46.8
40.0
43.6
35.8
69.5
58.4

sale and
retail
trade

190.3
175.2
181.1
194.7

58.0
70.1
88.8
72.2
69.4
88.1

32.5
34.6
38.9
51.2
51.4
52.1
52.1

237.1
226.5
169.6
207.6
240.0
224.8
231.9
273.3

84.8
81.1
63.1
77.2
93.9
96.7
105.0
135.9

18.7
15.5
13.6

102.9
175.2
180.3

46.8
88.6
79.8

33.6
43.1
51.8

164.1
231.5
226.1

59.8
88.1
87.0

104.3
139.2

68.5
73.9
80.8

187.1
189.2
208.3
189.7

15.3
19.1
18.4
20.8

171.8
170.1
189.9
168.9

67.8
68.4
80.1
72.4

52.0
52.8
55.7
45.0

217.6
218.0
230.2
233.5

94.0
93.2
100.5
99.1

123.6
124.8
129.7
134.4

81.2
81.3
81.2
81.7

42.4
43.5
48.5
52.7

236.7
235.6
242.4
239.0

202.3
207.0
210.2
209.3

26.2
26.9
25.2
26.1

176.2
180.0
185.1
183.2

61.9
72.5
68.0
75.4

55.8
48.2
54.6
49.7

218.9
224.4
236.3
247.9

98.1
102.1
106.1
113.9

120.9
122.3
130.2
134.0

84.3
86.6
87.7
88.6

36.6
35.7
42.5
45.4

245.7
248.8
267.3
261.5

213.1
215.8
235.4
222.8

27.6
27.8
27.0
25.9

185.5
188.0
208.4
196.9

75.4
85.5
100.7

56.2
45.2
52.1

257.0
268.7
284.9
282.8

128.0
134.2
143.0
138.6

129.0
134.5
141.9
144.2

90.3
92.4
95.2
97.3

38.7
42.1
46.7
46.9

194.0
202.3
159.2
196.7
234.2
224.1
238.4
255.8

166.6
203.3
193.6
207.2
221.8

21.0
16.5
11.8
18.1
13.0
18.4
26.1
27.1

138.6
157.3
119.4
148.5

150.7
223.4
224.6

121.6
190.7
193.9

216.1
219.8
236.8
223.7

159.6
173.8
131.2

77.1
88.5

21.6

152.3
145.4

106.5
130.4
146.1
128.1
126.8
137.4

USA

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.9

-5.8
-.7
6.5

-17.5
-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-1.5
1.8
6.5

-9.8
17.8
11.3
6.0

-8.9
-11.3
-20.0
-17.6
r
-21.3

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1987, nonresidential fixed investment rose $3.0 billion
(annual rate) while residential investment rose $3.3 billion. There was a $69.4 billion increase in inventories
following an increase of $22.9 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800

800

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL HATES

700

700

600

600

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

500

500

\

400

400

NONRESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT

300

300

RESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT

-V

200

200

100

100

CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES
/

I

-100

1979

1980

1

I

1981

I
1982

I I
1983

J I
1984

I

I I
1985

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1986

J I
1987

-100

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
n

Gross
private
domestic
investment

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 r.
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV
1986: I
H
Ill
IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis




437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
641.6
671.0
717.5
409.6
579.8
661.8
638.6
648.4
628.6
650.8
683.4
679.4
660.8
660.2
699.9
702.6
707.4
760.2

ixed investmen t

Change i i business
inven :ones

Nonresidentiai
Total
Total

445.8
491.5
471.8
509.4
597.1
631.6
655.2
671.5
469.5
548.8
616.8
617.3
629.9
631.0
648.3
645.1
651.9
657.3
666.6
648.2
662.3
684.5
690.8

322.8
369.2
366.7
356.9
416.0
442.6
436.9
443.4
354.9
383.9
435.0
431.5
445.6
442.0
451.5
440.7
433.8
433.5
439.7
422.8
434.6
456.6
459.6

Stnictures

113.9
138.5
143.3
124.0
141.1
152.5
137.4
134.2
137.6
127.4
146.6
150.6
154.4
152.9
152.1
149.6
135.9
131.1
132.9
128.7
129.7
137.1
141.1

Producers'
durable
equipment
208.9
230.7
223.4
232.8
274.9
290.1
299.5
309.2
217.3
256.5
288.4
280.8
291.3
289.1
299.3
291.0
297.9
302.4
306.7
294.1
304.9
319.5
318.5

Residential

122.5
122.3
105.1
152.5
181.1
189.0
218.3
228.1
114.7
164.9
181.8
185.8
184.3
189.0
196.8
204.4
218.1
223.8
226.9
225.4
227.7
227.9
231.2

Total

-8.3
24.0
-24.5
— 7.1
67.7
10.0
15.7
46.1
-59.9
31.0
45.0
21.4
18.5
-2.4
2.5
38.3
27.5
3.5
-6.4
51.6
40.3
22.9
69.4

Nonfarm

-2.4

18.3
-23.1
.4
60.5
13.6
16.8
36.2
— 51.1
21.3
41.3
17.7
13.7
5.2
17.8
38.5
24.5
-.9
5.1
48.7
27.3
11.1
57.5

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department October-November 1987 survey, business spending for new plant and
equipment is expected to rise 7.3 percent in 1988, following an estimated rise of 2.9 percent in 1987.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

500

SEASO vlALLY ADJUSTED ANN UAL RATES

—

-•

^~\
—

'

*

-^

'—

400

—• -__—-^
—

^•^"j

300

11

1

M INDUSTRIE!

300

""^ 1
---

.-

.__.

"~

200

.-'•"NCDNMANUFACT URING -^

-

.

*

T"
,.

---"'"""

--....

,-•''' w ANUFACTURIf IG

.-• — "" ~" ""

100

—

—

—

—

80

60

60
—

—

40
1

1 1
1980

1

1

1 1
1981

i

1 1
1982

i i
1983

1

1 1
1984

1

1 1
1985

1

1 1
1986

1

1 1
1987

_!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY
_2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

2J 2J 2J
\
\

\

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda

Industries surveyed quarterly
M inufacturi

All
industries

Total

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 4
1988 4

254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
387.13
379.47
390.57
419.00

95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
147.86
159.85

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

380.04
376.21
375.50
386.09

1987: I
II
Ill
IV
1988: I 4
II4

Period

10




Notimanufactu ing

'g

Total
nonfarm
business 2

Non manufactu ring
Manufaeturing

Nondurable
goods

Total '

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

mercial
and
otber

48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.27
69.14
71.85
73.98

47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.21
73.56
76.01
85.87

159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
242.71
259.15

12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
11.22
11.18
11.85

16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
18.02
18.80
19.10
20.63

35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.81
46.38
44.53
45.04

94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
1 14.45
134.75
150.94
160.38
167.89
181.63

145.11
142.19
139.43
144.07

68.71
68.56
69.42
69.87

76.39
73.62
70.01
74.20

234.93
234.03
236.07
242.02

13.13
11.29
10.14
10.31

18.50
18.40
18.81
19.50

47.17
46.43
45.81
46.12

156.14
157.91
161.31
166.08

145.11
142.19
139.43
144.07

234.93
234.03
236.07
242 02

374.23
377.65
393.13
417.25

140.65
140.79
147.56
162.45

70.47
68.76
71.78
76.40

70.18
72.03
75.78
86.05

233.58
236.87
245.58
254.80

10.31
11.02
11.64
11.74

18.98
17.67
19.17
20.60

43.60
43.48
44.90
46.16

160.70
164.69
169.87
176.29

140.65
140.79
147.56
162.45

233.58
236.87
245.58
254.80

427.97
429.07

164.68
165.94

78.41
77.70

86.27
88.23

263.29
263.14

11.86
12.04

22.92
20.53

45.36
46.56

183.15
184.01

164.68
165.94

263.29
263.14

Durable
goods

284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
431.94
427.23

95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
147.86
159.85

Total

189.02
202.15
222 72
226.79
227.15
260.16
278.46
284.54

veyed
quarterly
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
242.71
259.15

Surveyed
annually3
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
44.81
47.75

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
In February, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 280,000 and unemployment fell 108,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

124

124

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

120

120

116

116
112

112

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

108

108
104

104
CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT

100

100
96

96
**
jf

~^
^.

12

12

8

8
\

UNEMPLOYMENT

4
0

1980

1981

Illllllllll
1982

1983

Illllllllll
1984

Illllllllll
1985

1986

1987

1988

* 16 YEARSi OF AGE AND OVER
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons IB years ol' age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

I enod

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1986*
1987
1987:

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1988: Jan
Feb




IJnempl 3yment

Civilian e mployment

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
SSA

Resident
Armed
Forces
NSA

1 • bor for •<•
including;
., f
resident
Armed
Forces

169,349
171,775
173,989
175,891
178,080
179,912
182,293
184,490

1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,706
1,737

108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
119,540
121,602

100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
111,303
114,177

106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
117,834
119,865

99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
109,597
112,440

3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,163
3,208

95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
106,434
109,232

4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
5,345
5,122

7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425

1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2 232
1^983

183,738
183,915
184,079
184,259
184,421
184,605
184,738
184,904
185,052
185,225
185,370

1,740
1,736
1 ,785
1,726
1,718
1,720
1,736
1,743
1,741
1,755
1,750

120,970
120,982
121,098
121,633
121,326
121,610
122,042
121,706
122,128
122,349
122,472

113,084
113,191
113,541
114,060
114,018
114,359
114,786
114,615
114,951
115,259
115,494

119,230
119,246
119,363
119,907
119,608
119,890
120,306
119,963
120,387
120,594
120,722

111,344
111,455
111,806
112,334
112,300
112,639
113,050
112,872
113,210
113,504
113,744

3,225
3,237
3,250
3,269
3,192
3,212
3,143
3,184
3,249
3,172
3,215

108,119
108,218
108,556
109,065
109,108
109,427
109,907
109,688
109,961
110,332
110,529

5,458
5,180
5,104
5,058
4,979
5,154
5,016
4,986
5,067
5,241
5,004

7,886
7,791
7,557
7,573
7,308
7,251
7,256
7,091
7,177
7,090
6,978

185,571
185,705

1,749
1,736

122,924
123,084

115,878
116,145

121,175
121,348

114,129
114,409

3,293 110,836
3,228 111,182

5,145
5,254

7,046
6,938

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Nonag ricultunil
Civilian
labor force

Total

Agricultural

Total

Part-time
for
economic
reasons 1

Total

15
weeks
and
over

Labor force
partici sation
rate (p< rcent)
2

Civilian 3

64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.7
65.1

65.6
65.9

63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
65.3
65.6

2,129
2,055
2,060
2,067
2,029
1,920
1,896
1,904
1,801
1,834
1,791

65.8
65.8
65.8
66.0
65.8
65.9
66.1
65.8
66.0
66.1
66.1

65.5
65.5
65.5
65.7
65.5
65.6
65.7
65.5
65.7
65.7
65.7

1,733
1,740

66.2
66.3

65.9
66.0

Total

Source: Dopurhneiit of L;ihor, Bureau of L;tb<»r Statistic-;

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In February, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point, to 5.6 percent; the
civilian unemployment rate also fell 0.1 percentage point, to 5.7 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

20

~\\ .A^
.

f

hi

J\ i\>*

TEENAGERS
(16-19)

15

10

10
WOMlEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

1984

1984

1988

1985

1987

1986

1988

' UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIF/ED.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemp oyment ra te (pereen t of civilian labor force in group)

Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

Unemployment
rate,
all
workers 1

By sex and a ge

I—~~—~~

civilian
workers

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and
over

Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

Black
and
other

Black

8.8
9.1
8.6
8.7
7.3
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.3
8.2
8.0

7.5
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.6

3.6
3.4

8.9
8.3

5.4
5.3

8.3
7.9

6.6
6.6

12.2
12.6

5.5
5.3

6.5
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.9
5.8
5.7

6.6
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.1
6.0
6.0
5.9
6.0
5.9
5.8

5.8
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
4.9

5.8
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2

17.9
17.8
17.3
17.6
16.0
15.8
16.2
16.4
17.2
16.6
16.1

5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.1
4.9

1988:

5.7
5.6

5.8
5.7

5.1
4.9

5.1
5.2

16.0
15.4

5.0
4.8




6.2
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.4

10.9
11.3

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

12

9.6
9.7
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.3
9.0
8.8
8.9
8.5
8.4

6.2
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4

13.1
14.2
17.3

17.8
14.4
13.7
13.1
11.6

14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
14.5

Parttime
workers

4.1
4.1
4.1
4,0
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.4

14.0
13.9
13.0
13.7
12.8
12.7
12.4
12.3
12.1
12.2
12.2

6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.3

Fulltime
workers

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

9.8
9.2

12.6
12.4
11.8
12.1
11.5
11.4
11.3
10.9
10.8
11.0
10.9

19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
18.3
16.9

Women
who
maintain
families

!

6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8
6.6
5.8

13.0

17.8

6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
6.2
5.4

1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

Married
men,
spouse
present

6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
4.4
3.9

6.4

9.5
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.1

5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.4

Jan
Feb

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
6.6
5.8

7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.2

7.0
7.5
9.5

By s elected grou IS

By race

4.2
4.3

9.2

10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic

7.9

8.8
9.4

8.5

10.5
10.4

11.0
10.9

9.3
9.3
9.1
8.4

8.6
8.1
7.9
7.1

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In February, based on seasonally adjusted data, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of
work for less than 5 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose, and the percentage for 5-14 weeks
fell. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment were unchanged.
PER :ENT

PER :ENT

DISTRIB UTION*

DISTRIBUTION*

70

70

DURATIC N OF UNE/

REASON

WPLOYMEN T

FOR UNEW PLOYMEN1

60

60

50

/v~-'

>— »—.>/*, p-'XA...'

_V"V- ~'*'x /""N/**
V

50

LESS THAN
5 WEEKS

'— \

rX"---

"*-*^ —*

s

JOB LOSERS

^

F

40

5-14

^
30

WEEKS

<• ••"

._

A« .-"v

30

v

'/si'

""'

^-.AA/

REENTRANTS

—

.-'^-' "'
\_

V~—y\
"•••.' \..-^..

\

"v/^

*.„*. t~
^

\

\

•*^=*v

*s-^~^

~

10

^^

N EW ENTRAN rs

-^-- -/--v>
1

•*

V

27 WEEKS
AND OVER

^V^

—

Jl

A

10

H

15-26

J DB LEAVERS

WEEKS

0

iniihiiii

IIMillllll

1984

1985

Illllllllll
1986

Illllllllll

iniihiiii

1987

Illlllllll!

0

Illllllllll

Illllllllll Illllllllll

1985

1984

1988

1986

1987

Illllllllll
1988

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Dur ation

Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

of mempiov ment

I ercent d stributio l

Re ason for unemploy ment:
percent distributi m

Sta e
progr ims

Numb er of
ks
Insured
unemployment

Insured
unemployment,
"all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 1

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Medi-

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
31.0
29.6

13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
12.7
12.7

10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
14.4
14.0

11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
15.0
14.5

6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
6.9
6.5

51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
48.9
48.0

11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
12.3
13.0

25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
26.2
26.6

11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.4

3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
2,611
2,650
2,332

488
460
583
438
377
396
378
328

3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,561
2,693
2,746
2,401

42.9
42.5
43.9
42.9
43.9
44.2
45.5
45.3
45.4
46.2

30.9
30.8
30.0
28.7
29.4
29.6
29.6
27.6
29.4
28.7
28.2

12.7
12.1
13.1
12.9
13.3
13.0
11.5
13.0
11.9
12.7
12.8

14.2
14.2
14.3
14.5
14.4
13.4
14.7
14.0
13.4
13.2
12.9

14.8
14.9
14.8
14.8
14.7
14.2
14.3
14.2
14.1
14.0
14.2

6.7
6.7
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.4
5.8
6.2
6.1
6.0

48.5
48.5
49.1
47.9
48.4
48.4
47.0
46.8
47.7
46.8
45.7

13.1
12.7
12.7
12.4
13.1
13.6
13.8
13.8
13.5
13.1
13.5

25.8
26.6
26.1
26.5
26.9
26.5
27.3
26.9
26.0
28.0
27.8

12.7
12.2
12 2
13.3
11.6
11.6
11.9
12.5
12.9
12.1
13.0

2,470
2,439
2,367
2,321
2,297
2,273
2,223
2,102
2,035
2,037
2,090

361
342
334
333
331
329
307
289
293
303
317

3,155
2,933
2,526
2,216
2,108
2,210
2,030
1,800
1,759
1,931
2,322

43.6
44.3

31.9
30.8

11.8
12.1

12.6
12.9

14.4
14.4

6.4
6.4

45.2
45.9

15.3
13.8

27.0
27.9

12.5
12.4

2,242
2,208

356
327

2,870

Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

7,637
8,273
10,078
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425

43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
41.9
43.7

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

,886
,791
,557
,573
,308
,251
,256
,091
,177
,090
6,978

49 9

1988: Jan
Feb

7,046
6,938

Initial
claims

Weekly a verage, t lousands
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.




Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 531,000 in February.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

100

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

90

80

70

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

60

50

18

40

.Illllllllll
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

30

20

Illlllllim

Lnilimi
1984

CONSTRUCTION

Illllllllll
1985

1986

1987

Illllllllll
19881

minium
1984

1985

1986

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1

seasonally adjusted]

Goods-] reducing in dustries
Period

Construction

Total

Durable
goods

20,285
20,170

12,187
12,109

18,781
18,434
19,378
19,260
18,994
19,112

11,039
10,732
11,505
11,490
11,244
11,237

4,346

94,496
97,519
99,610
102,112

25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,727
24,859
24,681
24,884

101,150
101,329
101,598
101,708
101,818
102,126
102,275
102,434
102,983
103,285
103,612

24,743
24,749
24,759
24,752
24,761
24,850
24,886
24,917
25,064
25,169
25,259

5,038
5,032
5,019
4,999
5,008
5,002
5,006
4,989
5,053
5,074
5,121

18,986
18,995
19,011
19,018
19,015
19,104
19,129
19,169
19,247
19,336
19,382

1988: Jan r... 103,786
Feb".. 104,317

25,204
25,332

5,059
5,166

19,400
19,420

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

90,406
91,156
89,566
90,200

1985
1986
1987 r
1987:

Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June ...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec r ..

Se rvice-produ ^ing industr es

M anufaeturin g

Total 2

4,188
3,905
3,948
4,383
4,673
4,904
5,031

Nondurable
goods




Total

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
trade

Retail
trade

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

16,545
17,356
17,845
18,264

5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,689
5,955
6,297
6,589

5,757
5,766
5,772
5,775
5,781
5,797
5,807
5,815
5,831
5,851
5,871

18,140
18,136
18,197
18,205
18,226
18,274
18,256
18,314
18,408
18,443
18,458

5,887
5,903

18,628
18,739

5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,159
5,238
5,244
5,378

5,275
5,358

7,873
7,770
7,750
7,875

64,748
65,659
65,753
66,866
69,769
72,660
74,930
77,228

11,179
11,176
11,175
11,175
11,176
11,195
11,248
11,268
11,319
11,367
11,403

7,807
7,819
7,836
7,843
7,839
7,909
7,881
7,901
7,928
7,969
7,979

76,407
76,580
76,839
76,956
77,057
77,276
77,389
77,517
77,919
78,116
78,353

5,315
5,333
5,348
5,344
5,350
5,363
5,377
5,416
5,436
5,459
5,473

11,405
11,413

7,995
8,007

78,582
78,985

5,486
5,497

8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
received pay for anv part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-emploved persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived
from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are nof at work because of industrial disputes, bud

14

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;

Total
nonagricultural
employment

1987

5,278
5,268
5,555
5,717
5,735
5,797

15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613

Gover nment
Services
Total

Federal

16,241
16,031

2,866
2,772

19,694
20,797
22,000
23,099
24,137

15,837
15,869
16,024
16,394
16,711
17,063

2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
2,899
2,943

6,501
6,526
6,558
6,576
6,586
6,608
6,624
6,629
6,650
6,657
6,668

23,759
23,842
23,926
24,025
24,083
24,214
24,279
24,295
24,406
24,493
24,612

16,935
16,977
17,038
17,031
17,031
17,020
17,046
17,048
17,188
17,213
17,271

2,916
2 922
2^933
2,935
2,935
2,936
2,940
2,962
2,965
2,977
2,981

6,681
6,677

24,647
24,848

17,253
17,321

2,982
2,989

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

17,890
18,619
19,036

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or rionsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gr oss hourly
earn ngs

\verage weekh
hours
Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987:

1988:

Manufa cturing

Total
private
nonagricultural '

Total

Overtime

39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7
41.0

35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.2
34.9

34.8
34.8

Total
private
nonagrieultural *

2.8
2.8
2.3

3.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.7

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r.

34.9
34.8
34.7
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.9
34.6
34.9
34.9
34.6

41.1
40.9
40.6
41.0
41.0
41.0
41.0

40.6
41.3
41.2
41.0

3.6
3.6
3.5
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.6
4.0
3.9
3.8

Jan r
Feb*

34.7
34.9

41.1
40.9

3.9
3.8

Manufacturing

$7.27
7.99
8.49

$6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02

Adjuste d hourly earnin gs index — total private
nonagnc ultural 2

Ind ex,
1977 -100

Percent chang e from a year
earlif r 4 5

1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

127.3
138.9

Current
dollars

93.5
92.6
93.4
94.9

8.32
8.57
8.76
8.98

8.83
9.19
9.54
9.73
9.91

148.5
155.4
160.3
165.2
169.3
173.5

94.6
94.1
95.0
94.0

8.88
8.91
8.91
8.95
8.94
8.96
9.02
9.02
9.08
9.12
9.11

9.81
9.83
9.86
9.88
9.88
9.87
9.93
10.02
10.00
10.01
10.02

171.8
172.2
172.6
172.9
172.9
173.2
174.1
174.6
174.9
175.8
175.7

9.14
9.12

10.02
10.04

176.4
176.4

9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.2
3.1

1977 dollars

-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6

2.5
2.5

-.3
— .0
1.0
-1.1

94.6
94.4
94.2
94.0
93.8
93.7
93.7
93.8
93.6
93.8
93.6

2.1
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7

.3
-.6
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
— 1.4
-1.5
-1.4
-1.7
-1.8
-1.7

93.7
93.5

3.0
2.7

-1.0
-1.1

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent ci ange from
a year earlier,
total private n magricultural 5

Avera ge gross weekly ea rnings
Period

Current dollars

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1986
1987

Manufacturing

Total private
nonagric ultural 1

Construction

Retail trade
Current dollars

1977 dollars 3

1977 dollars

Current dollars

$235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
304.85
312.50

$172.74

$288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
374.03
386.37
396.01
406.31

$367.78

170.13
168.09
171.26
172.78
170.42
171.07
169.28

399.26
426.82
442.97
458.51
464.46
466.38
477.28

163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
176.08
179.32

6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.3
2.1
1.9
2.5

-1.5
-1.2
1.9
.9
-1.4
.4
-1.0

$147.38
158.03

-5.8

1987:

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r .

309.91
310.07
309.18
312.36
311.11
311.81
314.80
312.09
316.89
318.29
315.21

170.66
169.99
168.67
169.85
168.71
168.64
169.43
167.61
169.55
169.94
168.02

403.19
402.05
400.32
405.08
405.08
404.67
407.13
406.81
413.00
412.41
410.82

474.24
478.30
471.61
481.97
478.27
478.93
480.44
449.79
485.64
487.92
483.23

176.97
177.27
179.36
179.05
178.12
179.02
181.45
183.22
180.49
180.16
178.85

2.4
1.8
1.8
2.6
2.6
3.0
3.3
2.4
3.7
3.2
3.3

.5
-1.0
-1.9
-1.1
-1.0
-.9
-.9
-1.8
-.9
-1.3
-1.1

1988:

Jan".
Feb".

317.16
318.29

168.43
168.76

411.82
410.64

473.25
475.35

178.89
180.16

3.1
3.1

— .9
-.7

1

4

2

5

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners
and clerical workers (on a 1977= 100 base).

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.

3




Source: Department, of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Hours of all
perse u s 2

Outp ut '

Output pt r hour of
all pe rsons

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Compens ation per
hou r 3

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Noufarm
business
sector

Unit lab or costs

Real com sensation
per h our 4
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Implic t price
defla tor s

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

19' 7 = 100; [uarterly c ata seasoilally adjus ted

1979

99.6

99.3

107.9

107.9

108.3

108.7

119.1

118.9

99.4

99.2

119.5

119.7

117.0

116.5

1980
1981
1982
1983

1984

99.3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.6

98.8
99.8
99.2
102.5
104.6

106.7
108.9
105.5
109.9
119.2

106.7
108.5
104.9
110.1
119.2

107.5
108.2
105.2
106.7
112.9

108.0
108.7
105.7
107.5
114.0

131.5
143.7
154.9
161.5
168.0

131.3
143.6
154.8
161.5
167.8

96.7
r
95.8
97.3
98.2
98.0

96.6
r
95.8
97.2
r
98.3
97.9

132.5
142.7
154.5
156.7
159.1

132.9
144.0
156.0
157.6
160.4

127.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.2

127.8
140.3
149.2
154.3
159.0

1985
1986
1987 "

107.5
109.5
110.6

105.8
107.5
108.5

123.9
128.0
132.3

123.6
127.5
131.9

115.2
116.9
119.7

116.8
118.6
121.6

175.9
182.8
188.2

175.2
182.0
187.1

99.1

100.4

98.7
100.6
99.8

163.6
166.9
170.2

165.6
169.3
172.5

162.4
165.8
170.0

164.1
167.8
171.9

1982: TV

101.0

99.7

105.0

104.2

103.9

104.5

158.3

158.2

98.0

97.9

156.8

158.7

150.2

151.4

110.4

98.0

r

101.1

1983: IV

103.7

103.3

113.6

114.1

109.4

163.6

163.4

1984: IV

105.9

104.8

120.8

120.7

114.0

115.2

170.3

170.2

98.1

1985: I
III
IV

106.5
107.2
108.2
107.9

105.2
105.7
106.4
105.9

122.2
123.3
124.7
125.3

122.0
123.1
124.3
124.9

114.7
115.0
115.2
116.1

115.9
116.4
116.9
117.9

172.4
174.6
177.0
179.3

172.2
174.1
176.2
178.3

98.5
98.6
r
99.5
99.7

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

109.5
109.7
109.6
109.6

107.7
107.7
107.5
107.5

127.3
127.5
128.1
129.0

126.9
127.1
127.6
128.5

1 16.3
116.3
116.9
117.8

117.9
118.0
118.7
119.6

180.7
182.2
183.6
185.2

180.0
181.3
182.6
184.4

100.1
101.3
r
101.5
r
!01.7

1987: I

109.7
110.1
111.3
111.3

107.6
108.0
109.1
109.2

130.2
131.1
133.1
134.9

129.7
130.7
132.7
134.6

118.7
119.1
119.6
121.2

120.6
121.1
121.7
123.2

185.8
187.3
189.1
190.5

184.9
186.3
187.9
189.5

100.7
100.3
100.3
100.2

-1.2

-1.6

2.0

1.9

II

II

III
IV "...

97.9

157.7

158.2

155.2

156.2

98.1

160.8

162.4

159.8

161.0

98.4
r
98.4
r
99.0
99.2

161.9
162.8
163.6
166.1

163.6
164.7
165.7
168.3

160.8
162.0
163.0
164.0

162.2
163.6
164.9
165.7

r

99.8
100.8
100.9
101.2

165.0
166.2
167.5
169.0

167.2
168.4
169.8
171.5

164.3
165.4
166.9
166.7

166.4
167.3
168.8
168.8

100.2
99.7
r
99.7
99.6

169.4
170.2
169.8
171.2

171.8
172.5
172.2
173.5

168.2
169.6
170.7
171.5

170.3
171.4
172.5
173.3

-1.7

11.1

11.2

9.0

8.9

-2.7
-.8
1.5
1.1
r
-.4

10.9
7.7
8.3
1.4
1.5

11.0
8.3
8.4
1.0
1.8

9.0
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.3

9.7
9.7
6.3
3.5
3.0

.8

2.8
2.0
2.0

3.2
o9
1.9

2.7
2.1
1.9

3.2
2.3
2.4

r

Pe •cent chan ge; quarte rly data a seasonal] V adjusted annual ra tes

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

-.'A

| 9

3.5

9.7

9.5

— .7
.7
— 2.7
1.6
6.0

10.5
9.2
7.8
4.2
4.1

10.5
9.4
7.8
4.3
3.9

27
-1.0
1.6
1.0
_2

2.5
1.6
2.6

4.7
3.9
2.9

4.4
3.9
2.8

1.1
2.0
— .7

1.4
-.4
2.7
2.5

— .4
1.0
-.6
3.3
2.1

-1.1
2.1
-3.1
4.2
8.4

-3.3
5.0
8.3

-.8
.7
-2.8
1.5
5.7

1.8
1.9
1.0

1.2
1.6
.9

4.0
3.3
3.4

3.6
3.2
3.5

2.1
1.4
2.4

1985
1986 r
1987 "

1.1

1982: IV

3.0

2.4

-.5

— 1.2

1983: IV

3.0

1.4

10.4

9.8

1984: IV

-3.4
7.2

-3.5
8.3

4.5

5.0

5.4

4.3

1.5

1.0

3.5

3.1

2.1

2.1

3.8

3.9

III
IV

2.2
2.9
3.7
-1.0

1.5
1.7
2.6
-1.6

4.8
3.8
4.4
2.2

4.3
3.4
4.1
2.0

2.5
1.0
.7
3.2

2.8
1.7
1.5
3.6

5.1
5.1
5.7
5.1

4.8
4.5
4.9
4.9

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

5.8
.6
-.3
-.1

6.6
.1
-.6
.0

6.4
.7
1.8
3.0

6.4
.6
1.7
2.9

.5
.1
2.1
3.1

_2
.6
2.3
2.9

3.2
3.5
3.0
3.6

3.9
2.9
2.8
4.0

.5
1.4
4.7
2

.4
1.4
4.2
.3

3.5
3.0
6.3
5.4

3.8
3.2
6.3
5.6

3.0
1.6
1.5
5.6

3.4
1.7
2.0
5.3

1.4
3.3
3.8
3.1

1.1
3.0
3.6
3.4

1985: I
11

1987: I
II
Ill
IV "...
1

Output refers to gross dorm-slit
Hours of all persons engaged
workers. Kslimates based primarily
;!
Wages and salaries of employi
benefit plans. Also includes an estim
employed.
4
Hourly compensation divided by the er
5
Current dollar gross domestic product divided I
2

16



r

3.2

-1.5

r

r

r

-.8
r

3.2
r

1.3
r

1.6
4.9
r
.6
r
.8

-3.8
-1.5

r

r

.O
— .5

1.5

2.6

2.4

3.0

T

.1

2.4

2.9

4.8

3.1

r

.1

2.3

2.9

2.7

3.3

2.8
2.2
1.9
6.2

3.2
2.7
2.2
6.6

2.5
3.0
2.5
2.5

3.0
3.5
3.2
2.0

2.3
4.3
r
.5
1.3

-2.5
2.8
3.3
3.7

— 2.6
2.8
3.5
4.0

.9
2.6
3.7
5

1.6
2.3
3.7
.0

-4.1
-1.8
-.3
-.2

.9
1.8
— .9
3.3

.8
1.5
-.6
3.1

3.7
3.4
2.5
1.9

3.4
2.6
2.7
1.9

r

l.o
.6
r
3.4
r
l.l

r

.3.8

1.3
r
.O
r
2.6
r
.8

.5

r

r

2.0

r

r

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in February, following a rise of 0.3 percent in January. The index for
February was 5.8 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDE X, 1977=10 3* (RATIOS CALE)
160

INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIO S CALE)
240
FINAL PR ODUCTS
220

TOTAL 1 NDUSTRIA1 PRODUCT ON

140

_^—
—^^

120 .j.-"

iimhmi

100
160

Illllllllll

DURABLE
>^

120
'

1

i^-^^-Ti^. ^XOCiC*

Illllllllll

UTILITIES

1984

^ — ^~~" w ""
-•\~-~'
\-^—-.'-'"i^—-—-A
CONSUMEF
GOODS
Illllllllll

..

r-J *'"*''
/"

80

V

"V

_^,

-

"—

•»

70

^*NS-X"~''

Illllllllll

_

j,—•"
"— ^

PER CENT*
100
CAPACI1rY UTILIZAT ION RATE
(TOTAL 1 NDUSTRY)
90

*

— MINING-

100

-=—'-^

100 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

UTILITIES AND MINI NG PRODU CTION

120

—

BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT
-,
\
.

f

f.r-

_

Illllllllll IHIlllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

140

s PACE

Illllllllll

_^* P - — —^jii-,V^^"
iLE

100

EOLJIPMENT

^^

i
NONDURA

120

180

140

MANUF/&>CTURING PRODUCTI ON
140

DEFE NSE AND

160

muliim

Illllllllll

200

HlllllHIl llll||lllll Illllllllll
1985
1987
1986

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1985
1986
1987
1984

Illllllllll

1988

"SEASONALLY ADJ USTED
SOURCE: BOARD C F GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESE RVE SYSTEM

Illllllllll

1988

COUNCIl OF EC DNOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Industry pro uction indexe , 1977=100

To tal
indu strial
prodi ction

Period
Index,
1977 = 100

1977 proportion
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May

June
July
Aug

Sept
Oct

Nov r .
Dec r

1988: Jan

r

Feb p

1

Output as percent of capacity.




Capacity utilization
rate, p rcent !

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

Mining
Total

Durable

Utilities

Nondurable

Total
indtistrv

Manufacturing

100.0
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8

-1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.2
1.9
1.1
3.8

84.21
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.4
126.4
129.1
134.6

49.10
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.2
127.6
128.4
133.1

35.11
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3
124.6
130.1
136.7

9. 83
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
111.1
108.9
100.4
r
100.7

5.96
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.7
111.1
108.5
110.3

80.9
79.9
72.1
74.6
81.0
80.4
79.4
80.7

79.3
78.2
70.3
73.9
80.5
80.1
79.7
81.0

127.1
127.4
127.4
128.2
129.1
130.6
131.2
131.0
132.5
133.2
133.8

1.3
2.9
2.1
3.1
4.1
4.6
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.0
5.6

131.6
132.4
132.4
133.2
134.0
135.6
135.9
135.7
137.3
137.9
138.8

130.8
131.5
130.9
131.4
132.0
133.5
133.8
133.7
136.8
136.7
137.4

132.9
133.7
134.6
135.7
136.9
138.5
138.8
138.6
138.1
139.6
140.7

98.8
98.3
98.6
99.2
99.2
99.2
100.9
101.9
103.6
104.6
104.5

108.5
107.9
106.0
109.6
109.4
111.2
112.9
111.2
112.1
113.2
112.2

79.7
79.7
79.6
79.9
80.3
81.1
81.4
81.1
81.9
82.1
82.4

80.0
80.3
80.2
80.4
80.8
81.5
81.5
81.3
82.0
82.2
82.5

134.2
134.4

6.3
5.8

139.1
139.3

137.5
137.9

141.2
141.4

103.7
102.9

114.2
115.0

82.4
82.4

82.5
82.5

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Produc ts

Mate rials

Final produc

Internlediate proc ucts

onsumer go »ds

Equipment

Period
Total
Total

1977 proportion
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 r

44.77
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.3
131.0
132.5
136.8

25.52
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
119.8
124.0
127.7

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Novr
Dec T
1988: Jan r
Feb p

134.8
135.1
134.5
135.5
136.2
137.9
138.4
137.8
139.3
139.2
139.6
140.5
140.9

126.4
126.7
125.5
127.3
127.2
128.9
129.4
127.7
129.0
129.4
129.5
130.4
130.6

1

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

6.89
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.2
112.5
115.6
120.2
121.0
119.8
116.7
120.1
117.4
120.4
121.2
118.6
124.3
123.9
120.3
121.3
121.1

18.63
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.1
122.5
127.1
130.5
128.4
129.3
128.7
130.0
130.9
132.1
132.5
131.0
130.8
131.5
132.9

133.7
134.1

Total '

19.25
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
139.6
145.8
143.6
148.8

146.0
146.2
146.4
146.3
148.1
149.7
150.2
151.2
153.0
152.2
153.0
153.9
154.6

Business

14.34
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.2
140.2
139.5
144.5
141.7
141.9
142.1
141.7
144.2
145.6
145.6
146.3
148.7
148.3
149.7

150.8
151.8

Defense
and
space
equipment

3.67
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
156.4
171.4
182.0
188.9
188.9
188.6
189.2
189.3
188.6
188.7
189.1
189.8
190.3
188.7
188.8
190.0
189.9

Total

12.94
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.7
129.3
136.2
143.4

139.9
140.9
140.3
141.8
143.3
145.0
145.3
144.9
146.1
147.3
146.3
146.9
147.7

Construction
supplies

5.95
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
119.2
126.4
131.5
130.0
130.4
128.2
129.1
131.5
133.1
132.5
132.3
133.3
134.2
133.7
133.8
134.9

Total

g.v

supplies

6.99
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
133.8
137.9
144.6
153.5
148.4
149.9
150.6
152.6
153.4
155.2
156.3
155.6
157.1
158.4
157.0
158.1

42.28
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.2
114.3
113.8
118.2

11.69
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
103.9
103.3
99.7
99.8

114.9
115.2
115.9
116.3
117.2
118.5
119.4
119.7
121.2
122.5
123.9
123.6
123.4

98.6
97.2
97.8
98.7
99.4
99.0
100.9
100.2
101.8
102.8
102.0
102.7
102.3

Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately.

[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

N( ndurable manufactu res

Durable m anufactures

Primary metals
Period

Total

1977 proportion
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 r

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Novr
Dec r
1988: Jan r.
Feb"

5.33
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.3
80.4
75.1

81.5
75.1
77.0
76.1
77.0
78.8
81.4
85.1
84.5
90.6
90.2
92.3
88.7
88.4

Source: Board of Governors of £he Federal Reserve System.

18




Iron and
steel

3.49
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.4
70.4
63.4
70.8
62.3
65.4
65.0
65.7
68.3
70.9
76.0
74.6
82.0
79.7
84.6
81.0

Fabricated
metai
products

Nonelectrical
machinery

6.46
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.6
107.1
108.0
111.0
108.3
110.5
109.9
108.5
111.1
111.1
110.1
111.1
113.5
113.6
115.8
116.1
116.6

9.54
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
141.8
146.2
145.0
152.7
145.5
148.5
150.4
149.7
151.8
155.3
154.3
156.6
158.0
157.2
161.0
162.1
162.9

Transp ortation
equip ment
Electrical
machinery

7.15
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
170.5
168.3
165.7
172.3
171.0
168.5
168.4
171.1
170.5
172.5
174.3
173.4
175.5
175.6
175.8
176.9
176.5

Total

9.13
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
112.2
122.8
127.5
129.2
132.7
132.2
127.8
129.4
126.5
127.6
128.1
125.5
132.0
130.4
128.1
128.7
128.6

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

5.35
71.1
71.6
66.8

85.8
104.4
111.9
111.5
111.8
117.7
116.5
109.8
112.0
107.4
109.4
109.1
105.6
116.0
114.0
110.2
110.0
109.5

Lumber
and
products

2.30
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
114.3
124.1
130.3
129.6
128.9
127.8
130.3
131.1
132.8
131.1
126.9
129.8
134.0
133.6
130.4

Apparel
products

2.79
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.7
100.4
103.1
107.4
106.5
105.4
105.3
106.4
107.7
109.7
108.4
107.6
108.0
109.4
107.8

Printing
and
publishing

Chemicais
and
products

4.54
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
146.5
151.4
160.9
172.0
164.4
167.6
169.2
171.4
174.1
174.0
174.7
174.9
175.2
175.7
175.6
177.4
178.7

8.05
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.6
126.4
132.0
140.1
135.7
135.3
137.3
138.1
139.3
140.8
142.3
142.4
141.5
144.4
147.1
148.2

Foods

7.96
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
126.9
130.5
134.4

137.7
136.4
137.3
136.0
137.4
137.7
138.5
138.8
139.5
138.0
138.9
139.4
140.2

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio contracts 3

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Federal,
State, and
local

Rcsk ential
Total

New housing

Total '

Commercial
and
industrial 2

Other

Total value
index
(1982=100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor spaee
(millions of
square feet)

B illions of dollars
1979

252.4

200.7

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

251.7

193.3

260.2
246.6

203.6

281.3

227.5

328.6
356.0
388.8
398.9

271.0
291.7
316.6

192.9

323.6

116.4
100.4
99.2
84.7
125.5
153.8
158.5
187.1
197.3

42.0
46.7
55.0
58.7
53.8
68.6
82.7
78.0
73.5

89.3
69.6
69.4
57.0
94.6
113.8
114.7
133.2
139.7

42.3
46.2
49.4
49.5
48.1
48.5
50.5
51.5
52.8

51.7
58.5

109

97
100
100
124
136
150
158
162

56.5
53.7
53.8
57.7
64.3
72.2
75.3

Annual rates

Annual rates

1987: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

1988:

384.7

310.2

401.6

326.5

388.3
396.2
396.7
397.2
398.5
402.9
402.8
403.5

312.2

200.9

406.8

324.3
323.8
329.8
324.9
326.7
327.7
328.7

197.0
198.8
193.9
196.5

137.3
137.0
139.5
139.7
139.4
138.2
137.9
138.2
140.0
141.0
142.4
143.4

395.2

321.0

191.3

139.1

405.1

Jan"
Feb"

187.8
203.1
190.8
199.5
195.9

320.5

321.4

198.0
200.2

1
Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvcments, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential.
* Includes hotels and motels.

1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,097
1,016
1,004

70.4
72.8
71.3
69.8
73.8
72.0
72.6
75.2
74.1
74.2
79.1
75.7

52.0
50.5
50.1
51.1
51.7
51.4
53.2
54.4
53.8
53.7
54.8
56.5

74.5
75.2
76.1
75.7
75.3
72.9
74.6
73.0
77.9
76.8
77.4
78.1

158
159
167
157
157
167
165
174
160
164
157
157

969
885
926
938
921
1,011
1,017
1,016
1,032
987
911
1,012

74.5

55.1

74.3

145
159

833
1,103

3

F.W. Dodge series.
Department of Commerce (Bureau o! the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
&

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New pri\ ate homes

New private housing units
Period

Units started, bj type of structure
Total

1979
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

1987r

1 unit

1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1,805.4
1,620.5

1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
1,179.4
1,146.4

1,809
1,723
1,635
1,599
1,583
1,594
1,583
1,679
1,538
1,661
1,399

1,285
1,206
1,201
1,125
1,086
1,142
1,109

1,372
1,494

2-4 units
122.0

109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
84.0
65.3

5 or more units
429.0
330.5
287.7

319.6
522.0
544.0

576.1
542.0
408.7

Units
authorized
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1 ,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,733.3
1,769.4
1,539.0

Units
completed

Homes sold

1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3
1,756.4
1,667.2

709
545

436
412
623
639
688
750
671

Homes for
sale at end
of
period 1
3

397

r

337
275
r
253
r

r

301
353
346
357
365

Vacancv rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) z
5.4
5.4

5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5
7.3
7.7

Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates
1987:

Feb

Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov

Dec

1988:

2

T

Jan '.
Feb"

450
432
368
409
412
393

1,105
1,129
1,035

74
85
66
65
85
59
58
49
67
51
51

366
481
313

1,676
1,719
1,598
1,493
1,517
1,487
1,502
1,502
1,463
1,469
1,361

1,002
1,095

51
55

319
344

1,257
1,422

1,211

416
419

r

738
720
728
649

1,745
' 1,720

r

l,786

' 1,687
r

l,612

640

' 1.680
' 1,633
' 1,591
' 1,565
' 1,571
1,611

672
673
644
653

1,527

r

625

r

358
358
359
356
359
359
361
361
360

7.5
8.1

362

582

365

522

369
365

628

7.4

7.8

Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In January, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.7 percent, while inventories rose $4.0 billion. In February,
according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.4 percent, following no change in January. (Series revised.)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

800

—

>^q
Aon

^

200
180
RETAIL INVENTORIES

MANI JFACTURING AMD
TRA DE INVENTO RIES

160

—
140

— ** "" **

..

-

/•-'

120
RETAIL SALES

400

M/svNUFACTURI NG
AN D TRADE SA LES

100

—

ni

80

Illllllllll

Illllllllll

RATKD*

1 80

—
1.60

_ INVENTCDRY-SALES RATIO

-^yf^7

v^ >.>-v

1985

1987

1986

-

,,,,,!,,,,, f ^ p 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1iiiiiliiiii iiiiiliiiii

1.00

1985

1984

1988

1987

1986

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Mao uf act urmg and
tracle 1

Who esale
Inven-

Inventories

Sales 2

348,746
369,031
408,156
418,434
424,342
453,313

574,126
589,536
642,545
652,548
651,586
709,853

96,290
100,424
113,404
114,563
115,109
126,736

128,196
129,803
140,865
144,244
147,352
165,097

89,107
97,364
106,882
113,944
119,791
125,882

28,169
32,582
37,836
41,415
44,885
46,592

60,937
64,783
69,046
72,529
74,907
79,290

425,002
442,945
445,622
445,252
447,215
453,701
454,330
460,047
464,984
464,947
462,975
468,303

664,020
665,629
668,517
671,128
677,214
680,880
684,154
685,150
689,513
697,648
703,425
709,853

118,114
124,291
124,039
124,550
125,511
126,599
127,705
129,662
131,437
131,743
128,501
128,332

154,863
154,812
155,241
155,767
158,560
158,835
158,611
157,072
159,135
162,517
163,353
165,097

117,246
123,298
124,153
124,744
124,775
126,511
127,230
129,981
127,815
126,808
127,248
128,615

41,233
44,912
45,792
46,028
45,683
46,984
47,579
49,614
47,948
46,889
47,067
48,000

76,013
78,386
78,361
78,716
79,092
79,527
79,651
80,367
79,867
79,919
80,181
80,615

464,883

713,860

129,044

167,354

128,598
129,123

48,565
49,270

80,033
79,853

Sales

Inventory- ales ratio 4

Be tail
2

Inventories 3

2

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Sales

Period

/"

MAh•JUFACTURIN G
> ,ND TRADE

~

1984

V

^^^-

1.40

iiiiiliini Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

-

~^—^~^t\3fZ^&m,
*-"*"

-

RETAIL

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

3

Manufacturing

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

211;100

61,911
69,066
79,431
88,998
91,085
107,948

72,598
78,515
88,086
92,526
94,911
103,152

1.67
1.56
1.53
1.55
1.54
1.51

1.49
1.44
1.49
1.53
1.56
1.59

188,934
190,282
193,186
194,576
196,806
200,424
202,210
202,684
203,708
206,577
208,260
211,100

93,722
94,507
96,162
96,352
98,712
100,716
101,590
101,569
102,394
104,846
106,490
107,948

95,212
95,775
97,024
98,224
98,094
99,708
100,620
101,115
101,314
101,731
101,770
103,152

1.56
1.50
1.50
1.51
1.51
1.50
1.51
1.49
1.48
1.50
1.52
1.52

1.61
1.54
1.56
1.56
1.58
1.58
1.59
1.56
1.59
1.63
1.64
1.64

209,691

106,550

103,141

1.54

1.63

Total

Retail

tra e

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

1982
1983 r
1984 '
1985 r
1986 r
1987 r
1987:

Jan r
Feb r
Mar r.
Apr r
May r
June r
July r
Aug r
Sept r.

Oct '

Novr

Dec r.

1988:

Jan"
Feb"

134,509
147,581
167,517
181,524
185,996

1

See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
End of period. Data beginning December 1980 for wholesale and retail and beginning January
1982 for manufacturing are not comparable with data for prior periods.
4
Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.
2
3

20




NOTE.—Ketail series revised beginning 1983. Wholesale series revised beginning 1987; data
prior to 1987 to be revised later. Manufacturers' series (see page 21) to be revised later.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In February, manufacturers' shipments were about unchanged, inventories and unfilled orders rose, and new orders
fell.
BULKDNS OF DOL LARS* (RATK3 SCALE)

BILLIC)NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIO> SCALE)
280
240

SHIPME.NTS
,

200 _ _ _ .

INVENT DRIES

440

.

r.

i—

""

360

—

DlJRABLE GOC DS

120

NO NDURABLE C OODS

•"

—\—
DL RABLE GOO DS

160

C-^

80

IOIAL

,._--—

200

_._...,..--;

r=

1—T~~l

1

280

-TOTAL —

160

'

120 —

60

NC INDURABLE 5OODS

Illllllllll Illllllllll IMIlllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

80

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
240 — NEWO RDERS

^-^—1

200

X"

•-«-—s—»-^-

RATIC) *
2.20

-TOTAL-

160

DUI ABLE GOOC S
.-. \ ~."

120

17 -

k-r;-

80

1.80

NON )URABLE GC ODS

1.40

60

Illllllllll |lll|llllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1984

1985

1986

1.20

INVENT ORY-SHIPM ENTS RATI O

I^~"

II 1 1 ll f 1 1 M

^_

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 nu

1984

1988

1987

r~^
niiiiiMii

p~^

_

—

iiiiiliiiii iiniliini

1986

1985

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufa cturers'

—

1987

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

ship nents 1

1[anufacturers ' new orders i

Manufa sturers' inver tories 2

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio *

76,801
84,199
83,924
86,431
91,189
91,030
89,351
95,595
90,716
92,508
93,186
93,647
94,405
96,273
96,852
96,479
97,374
98,304
98,677
98,202
98,375
97,935

323,393
319,094
306,302
338,849
365,177
373,495
372,974
403,496
370,961
370,413
371,220
375,886
380,354
385,217
391,887
394,640
395,627
398,630
401,030
403,496
408,826
412,299

1.67
1.65
1.95
1.80
1.74
1.74
1.70
1.62
1.69
1.64
1.62
1.64
1.63
1.60
1.62
1.62
1.59
1.59
1.60
1.58
1.63
1.63

DurabI e goods
Period

Durable
goods

198S

Nondurable goods

Capital

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

industries,
non-

defense

M illions of do liars, seaso lally adjust ed
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987:

Jan
Feb r
Mar
Apr
May

June
July
Aug

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1988: Jan r
Feb p
1
2
3

154,391
168,129
163,350
171,242
187,869
189,928
189,442
200,695
189,642
195,356
197,430
195,958
196,929
200,591
199,395
200,404
205,732
206,396
207,226
211,356
207,241
207,385

77,550
83,872
79,352
84,956
96,623
98,930
100,142
105,300
99,255
103,349
104,750
102,747
102,477
104,476
103,032
104,135
108,433
108,251
108,378
113,026
108,946
109,532

76,841
84,257
83,998
86,286
91,246
90,997
89,300
95,395
90,387
92,007
92,680
93,211
94,452
96,115
96,363
96,269
97,299
98,145
98,848
98,330
98,295
97,853

264,281
282,645
2
311,421
312,152
334,163
326,780
318,238
333,656
320,223
320,535
320,090
320,785
321,848
321,621
323,333
325,394
326,670
328,554
331,812
333,656
336,815
338,390

2

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
End of period. Data beginning 1982 are not comparable with data for prior periods.
End of period.




174,620
186,347
200,711
200,220
218,524
213,750
207,854
216,753
208,935
208,644
207,987
208,683
209,096
208,654
209,951
210,921
211,680
213,436
215,931
216,753
219,014
220,188

89,661
96,298
110,710
111,932
115,639
113,030
110,384
116,903
111,288
111,891
112,103
112,102
112,752
112,967
113,382
114,473
114,990
115,118
115,881
116,903
117,801
118,202

2

156,161
167,752
161,600
173,915
190,065
190,631
189,482
203,196
187,629
194,808
199,399
200,624
201,397
205,454
206,065
203,157
206,719
209,399
209,626
213,822
212,571
210,858

79,360
83,553
77,676
87,485
98,875
99,600
100,131
107,601
96,913
102,300
106,213
106,977
106,992
109,181
109,213
106,678
109,345
111,095
110,949
115,620
114,196
112,923

23,259
24,050
21,469
22,143
26,714
26,970
26,671
29,632
26,771
27,127
27,396
28,310
30,031
29,987
31,982
29,540
29,753
30,416
30,085
33,879
34,791
33,448

4
Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Data beginning 1982 are not comparable with data
for prior periods.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In February, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods fell 1.1 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.1 percent. Capital equipment
prices rose 0.2 percent.
INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SC ALE)

INDEX, 1982- 100 ( RATIO SCALE)
120

120

SEASONALLY ADJUSTE D

FIN1SHEC ) GOODS PR CES

c:ONSUMER
FOODS

no

CAPITAL EQUIPMENT —
\_

'"V**^

_

/-J

"v^^"

^r?^

A

r
/

^r

/x

f

*

,'

-110

*^

-

r'\

"\ ---

TOTAL
FINISHED
GOODS

/''
£''

>f
sr'

v

/

•.'-^

1

^-^~^

^>^^f- ^" // "
../
""'

r^Jfe^y
** »
—'

•,'f"~""\
V^.'C" '"/-^, v
-- \, ' "
/
*

\
\
CONSUMER (3OODS
EXCLUDING F OODS
90

/

A''
/'
Of)

80

iiinliiiii
1980

M i l l M i l l Illllllllll
1981
1982

iinilnii, „, ,,l,,,,,
1984

1983

Illllllllll
1985

Illllllllll
1986

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1988
1987
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF LABOR

[1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Fin shed goods

Intern: ediate ma terials

Total

F nished go )ds excluding consumer foo is
Period

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

Consumer g )ods

Total
Total

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

88.0

1985
1986
1987"
1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov
Dec

96.1
100.0
101.6
103.7
104.7
103.2
105.4
104.1
104.5
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.7
106.0
106.4
106.1
106.1
105.7

1988: Jan
Feb

106.1
105.9

101.0
105.4
104.6
107.3
109.5
108.2
108.2
109.6
110.8
110.7
110.3
109.5
110.2
109.9
110.1
108.6

86.7
95.6
100.0
101.8
103.2
104.6
101.9
104.0
102.7
103.3
103.6
103.5
103.6
104.2
104.8
105.2
104.9
104.8
104.8

87.1
96.1
100.0
101.2

110.5
109.3

104.6
104.7

101.2
101.3

92.4
97.8
100.0

1
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
Note.—Beginning with data for January 1988, the reference h
to 1982 = 100.

22




102.2
103.3
98.5
100.7
99.1
99.9
100.2
100.1
100.3
101.0
101.7
102.0
101.8
101.7
101.6

Durable

Nondurable

Cr i<ic mater als

Capital
equipment

finished
consumer
goods

Total

Foods
and
feeds '

89.4
98.2
100.0
100.5
103.0

104.6
103.9
100.0
101.8
104.7
94.8
93.2
96.2

92.7
93.3
96.8
100.4
98.7
97.3
97.5
97.5
98.1
95.4
96.2

87.9
84.1
84.8
85.4
86.3
87.9
90.3
91.8
90.8
90.6
90.1
89.3

97.1
99.3

87.3
87.3

88.6

110.4
110.8
111.3
111.2
111.3
111.5
111.5
112.2
112.2
112.0
111.8

93.3
94.8
93.1
94.0
94.3
94.1
94.4
95.3
96.3
96.4
96.2
96.0
96.0

94.6
100.0
102.8
105.2
107.5
109.7
111.7
111.0
111.1
111.4
111.5
111.4
111.6
111.9
112.5
112.0
112.1
112.3

96.6
100.0
101.3
103.3
103.8
101.4
103.6
102.1
102.6
103.3
103.6
103.7
104.1
104.3
104.7
104.5
104.4
103.9

90.3
98.6
100.0
100.6
103.1
102.7
99.1
101.5
99.6
99.8
100.2
100.8
101.3
101.9
102.4
102.7
103.2
103.6
103.9

105.5
104.6
100.0
103.6
105.7
97.3
96.2
99.2
96.3
95.7
97.3
100.2
100.6
100.2
100.0
101.0
101.0
101.0
101.3

103.0
99.3
101.7
99.8
100.1
100.4
100.9
101.4
102.0
102.6
102.8
103.3
103.8
104.0

95.3
103.0
100.0
101.3
103.5
95.8
87.7
93.6
89.9
90.6
92.3
94.3
94.6
95.6
96.7
96.0
96.1
94.8
94.6

112.2
112.3

95.3
95.4

112.5
112.7

104.3
103.9

104.2
104.2

102.6
101.9

104.3
104.3

93.6
94.5

85.1
95.8
100.0
100.5
101.1
101.7

: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
' was changed from 1967 = HX»

Other

Total

85.8

91.0
96.4
100.0
102.8
104.5
106.5
108.9
111.5

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Other

84.6
101.8
100.0
100.7
102.2
96.9
81.6

CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.3 percent
not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.9 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

130

130

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

120

120

110

- CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS -

110

100

100

90

80

80

70

70

HIM

Illll

60
1980

1982

1981

him

Illll
1985

1983

60

1986

1987

1988

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

All it 'ins

1

Tr ansportati

Housing
She Her

Period

Ret. imp.3....
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987: Feb ....
Mar....
Apr....
May ...
June ..
July...
Aug...
Sept...
Oct
Nov....
Dec....
1988: Jan
Feb....

Not
seasonally
adjusted
(NSA)

100.0
82.4
90.9
96.5
99.6
103.9
107.6
109.6
113.6
111.6
112.1
112.7
113.1
113.5
113.8
114.4
115.0
115.3
115.4
115.4
115.7
116.0

Seasonally
adusted

111.8

112.3
112.8
113.2
113.5
113.8
114.3
114.6
115.0
115.3
115.5
115.9
116.1

Total

Renters'
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)

27.8

7.9

Food
Total '

16.1
86.8
93.6
97.4
99.4
103.2
105.6
109.0
113.5
112.1
112.3
112.7
113.3
113.9
113.8
113.9
114.5
114.7
114.8
115.3
115.6
115.3

42.5
81.1

90.4
96.9
99.5
103.6
107.7
110.9
114.2
112.7
113.0
113.4
113.7
114.0
114.2
114.8
115.0
115.3
115.5
115.9
116.4
116.8

81.0
90.5
96.9
99.1
104.0
109.8
115.8
121.3
119.1
119.7
120.2
120.6
120.8
121.2
121.9
122.2
122.8
123.1
123.8
124.5
125.1

103.0
108.6
115.4
121.9
128.1

125.9
126.5
126.8
127.1
127.5
128.5
128.9
128.8
128.6
128.8
129.5
130.9
131.5

Homeowners'
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
19.7

102.5
107.3
113.1
119.4
124.8
122.5
123.1
123.7
124.2
124.4
124.5
125.4
125.9
126.9
127.2
127.9
128.4

129.0

Maintenance
and
repairs
(NSA)

0.2
82.4

90.7
96.4
99.9
103.7
106.5
107.9
111.8
110.2
110.7
110.3
110.2
111.1
113.2
112.9
112.7
112.8
113.5
113.3
113.7
114.3

Fuc!
and
other
utilities

Apparel and
upkeep

7.7

6.3

75.4
86.4
94.9
100.2
104.8
106.5
104.1
103.0
102.3
102.3
102.4
102.6
103.0
103.1
103.6
103.3
103.0
103.4
103.3
103.2
103.7

90.9
95.3
97.8
100.2
102.1
105.0
105.9
110.6
107.9
109.6
111.0
111.4
110.8
109.9
110.3
111.3
112.7
113.1
112.2
112.3
112.0

)L1

MediTotal '

New
cars

17.5
83.1
93.2
97.0
99.3
103.7
106.4
102.3
105.4
103.4
104.0
104.6
104.8
105.3
105.9
106.7
106.8
107.2
107.7
107.4
107.3
107.1

88.4
93.7
97.4
99.9
102.8
106.1
110.6
114.6
113.0
113.3
113.9
114.1
114.4
114.8
115.0
115.2
115.5
115.7
115.7
115.5
115.8

4.4

cal

Ener-

Motor
fuel

care

g.v 2

3.3
97.4
108.5
102.8
99.4
97.9
98.7
77.1
80.2
76.7
78.3
79.1
79.2
80.1
81.1
83.8
83.2
83.0
83.0
81.6
80.4
78.9

5.8
74.9
82.9
92.5
100.6
106.8
113.5
122.0
130.1
127.3
127.8
128.6
129.3
130.0
130.7
131.3
131.9
132.4
133.0
133.5
134.6
135.4

7.6
86.0
97.7
99.2
99.9
100.9
101.6
88.2
88.6
86.4
87.1
87.5
87.6
88.5
88.7
90.2
89.8
89.3
89.6
88.9
88.3
87.8

All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy

48.5
80.6
88.3

95.1
100.0
105.0
109.0
112.7
117.0
115.3
115.8
116.4
116.7
116.9
117.3
117.6
117.9
118.5
118.9
118.9
119.5
119.8

1
Includes items no! shown separately.
2
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.
also included through IHHL*.
3
Relative importance, December 1H87.
NOTE.—Beginning with data for January 1!)S8, the reference base was changed from I!)*i7 = 10()




23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Oh inge from pr eceding peri id
1
1
Consiim r goods

Period

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Change from 3 mont: s earlier, ann ua! rate
1
Consiim r goods
Total
finished
goods

Excluding
foods

Foods

Change from 6 montl s earlier, ann ual rate
j
|
Consum r goods

Capital
equipment

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA

Cha nge, Dec. o Dec., N 3A
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987"

14.1
8.6
4.2
.9
.8

7.5
1.5
2.0
2.3
3.5
.6
2.8
-.3

11.8
7.1
3.6
.6
1.7
1.8
-2.3
2.1

,

11.4

13.4

9.2
3.9

9.2
4.1
1.6

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.7

-6.6
3.9

2.1
1.3

2.1
1.0
-1.4
2.1

Clmnge, mon th to mont h

1987:

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec

1988: Jan '
Feb

0.2
.4
.6
2
.1
.3
.3
.4
-.3
0

0.2
0
1.3
1.1
— .1
-.4

-.4

-1.4

.4

1.7
-1.1

-.7

.6
-.3
2

9

0.3
.8
.3
-.1
.2
.7
.7
.3

-0.2
.1
.3
.1
-.1
_2
.3
.5

_2
-.1
-.1
— .4
.1

-.4
.1
2

2.3
4.3
4.7
4.7
3.5
2.3
2.7
3.8
1.5
.4
-2.6

-4.7
-2.5
6.1
10.0
9.6
2.6
-4.6
-1.8
-1.4
2.2
— 5.7

1.6
3.2
6.5
7.0
3.2
0
— 1.6

2
2

0
-.8

2.2
-2.9

-2.3
-1.6

6.7
9.3
5.8
4.1

0.7
1.1

.7
1.8
1.1
.7
1.4

4.0
1.4
.7
H

2.7

-2.2

5.7

2.4

.1

2.9
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.5
3.7
3.7
1.9
1.5
.6

-1.3

5.6
5.8
5.4
5.4
4.5
5.3
4.2
3.2
3.2
2.6

2.0
1.6
1.3
1.1
.7
1.6
2.5
1.1
1.1
1.6

1.7
2.7

.4
-.8

1.6
1.4

2.1
1.7

1.8
22

4
2.4
3.3
4.3
2.4
3.7
.5
-1.3
-3.8

.8

.4

2

-.4

2.4
2.3
3.4
3.1

3.2
2.5
2.5
2.1

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Shelter
Period

All
items '

Food
Total '

Rentowners'
costs

Total '
costs

Fuel
and
other
utilities

chaiige, I ecembe
1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

12.5
8.9
3.8

3.8
3.9
3.8
1.1
4.4

10.2
4.3

3.1
2.7
3.8
2.6
3.8
3.5

13.7
10.2

15.0

9.9

3.6

2.4

3.5
4.3
4.3
1.7
3.7

4.7
5.2
6.0
4.6
4.8

5.1
5.9
6.3
5.0
3.9

Adden dum: All ite ms, percent 3hange
(annuE 1 rate)

Tr insportat on

Housing

4.5

5.1
5.9
4.6
5.3

13.8
14.4
0.7
1.8
4.2
1.8
-5.6
1.6

Apparel
and
up-

Total '

New

Motor

Medical

Ener-

gy2

All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy

Erom
prcviter '

From
3
months
earlier

From
6
months
earlier

From
earlier
NSA

to Dec amber, ft SA
6.8
3.5
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.8
.9
4.8

14.6
10.9
1.8
3.9
3.1
2.6
-5.9
6.1

7.4
18.8
6.8
9.4
(.5 -6.5
3.4 -1.7
2.5 -2.4
3.4
3.1
5.9 -30.7
18.7
1.8

9.9
12.5

18.0
11.9

13.5
10.3

9.8
9.4

11.0

1.3

6.1

6.2

6.4

-.5

6.1
6.7
7.7
5.8

.2

5.0
4.3
3.7
3.3
3.8

3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9
3.6

1.8
-19.7
8.2

Che nge, mo nth to nlonth

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

0.4
.4
.4
.4
.3

1988: Jan
Feb

0.2
9

.4

0.4
.3
.4

0.5
.5
.4
.3

0.4

.5
_2
2
.3
.8
.3
-.1

0.5
.5
.0

.3
.3
.3

.5
9

.3
.3
2
.5
2
.3

.1

2

2

9
9

.2

.4

.3

.6

.5

2
.1
.i
.4
.8
.2
.6

.3

.3
-.3

.4

.3

.6
.5

1.1
.5

.4
.0

.3
.4

2

.-,)
.0

— .1
.1

9

.3
.6
9

.O

.4

0.4
0
.1
2

.4
.1
.5
%
-.3
.4
-.1
-.1
.5

0.6
1.6
1.3
.4
-.5
-.8
.4
.9
1.3

0.6
.6
.6
2
.5
.6
.8
.1

.4
-.8

.5
-.3

.1

-.1

-.3

2

1
Includes items lot showr separate V.
2
House-hold fuel —gas (p ped), elec ricitv, fue oil, etc.--and mot or fuel. M tor oil, c Kilant, et •'
ilso included throng h 1982.

24



.4

-1.1
.3
.0
_2

.3
.3
2
2
.3
2
0
-.2
.3

4.5
2.1
1.0
.1
1.1
1.2
3.3
-.7

0.4
.4
.6
.5
.5
.5
.5
.0
.4

-.6
.3
-.8

0.2
.4
.5
.3
2
.3
.3
.3
.5
.3
0

-.2
0
-1.7

.4

-1.5
-1.9

.8
.6

— .7
-.6

.5
.3

.5

2.0

.8
.5
.1
1.0
.2

1.7
-.4

5.2

5.1

3.6

3.9

Quarter v changes are show n in the las month of he quarter.
ource: D ppartmen of Labor Bureau of Labor Stall sties.

5.2
6.3
5.1
5.1
4.3
3.6
3.9
3.9
4.3
3.5
3.2

4.1
4.4
5.0
5.1

5.3
4.4
4.5
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.6

2.1
3.0
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.9
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.4

3.2
2.8

3.7
3.2

4.0
3.9

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in March were unchanged from their February level. Prices paid by farmers in January
were unchanged from their October level.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180

INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
PRICES PAID

\

160

160
140

140
PRICES RECEIVED

120

120

100

100

80

80

60
RATIO1'
140
120

60
RATIO-!/
140

-

120
100
80
60

r^s
i 11 1 1 1

k^—|
M 1 1 1 1 ii 1 1 1
1980

RATIO

1

^
1

"""—^

.'

II 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 II 1 1 1 II I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I l i l l l l l l l l
1982
1987
1986
1983
1984
1985

1981

E
i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1-1

100
80
60

1988

J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977 = 100]

Pri ces
Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1986
1987
1987: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
1

Al! farm
products

Livestock and
products

134

139
133
135
142
128
123
127
121
125
128
130
129
127
129
127
132
127
131
130
130

125
134
121
128
138
120
107
106
100
101
108
110
108
103
104
106
120
113
115
109
110

Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates. See also footnote 3.
3
Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and
for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.
2




r rices paid by farmei s

received bv farm ers

144
143
145
141
146
136
138
146
142
147
148
150
149

151
152
147
143
141
147
149
148

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates l

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

138
150
159
161
165
163

159
162
(3)
162
(3)
(3)
164
(3)
(3)
165
(3)
(3)
165
(3)
(3)

139
151
159
159
162
157
150
152
(3)
152
(3)
(3)
154
(3)
(3)
155
(3)
(3)
155
(3)
(3)

Production
items

138
148
153
152
155
151
144
147
(3)
147
(3)
(3)
148
(3)
(3)
150
(3)
(3)
152
(3)
(3)

Ratio

2

97
92
84
84

86
79
77
78
77
77
79
80
79
77
79
77
80
77
79
79
79

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml and M2 slowed in February; growth in M3 accelerated.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,600

_M3_

3,200

3,200

2,800

2,800

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

M2

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200

800

800

700

700

600

600
500

500

Ml
400

400

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1982

300

1980

1981

1984

1986

• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1987

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures, exeept as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

L

Ml

M2

M3

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)

Ml plus overnight
RPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits

M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

412.2
439.1
478.4
522.1
551.9
620.1
725.4
750.9

1,633.1
1,795.5
1,954.0
2,185.2
2,363.6
2,562.6
2,807.8
2,902.1

1,990.8
2,236.5
2,443.2
2,693.2
2,978.3
3,196.0
3,491.5
3,662.4

2,327.6
2,599.0
2,852.9
3,154.4
3,519.4
3,825.4
4,135.2
4,330.6

3,880.9
4,262.1
4,645.5
5,181.7
5,932.6
6,749.4
7,607.1
8,319.1

6.8
6.5
8.5
9.6
5.7
12.4
17.0
3.5

8.9
9.9
8.8
11.8
8.2
8.4
9.6
3.4

10.2
12.3
9.2
10.2
10.6
7.3
9.2
4.9

9.6
9.8
9.0
11.5
14.5
13.8
12.7
9.4

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

731.3
734.2
744.7
746.5
742.1
743.6
746.5
747.5
756.2
752.7
750.9

2,829.3
2,834.3
2,847.4
2,849.1
2,851.7
2,858.1
2,869.5
2,880.9
2,895.2
2,897.7
2,902.1

3,524.6
3,532.9
3,549.8
8,564.6
3,582.0
3,588.9
3,605.9
3,620.9
3,643.1
3,658.2
3,662.4

4,176.0
4,174.3
4,189.6
4,217.9
4,234.3
4,236.2
4,257.2
4,282.0
4,311.7
4,324.9
4,330.6

7,717.7
7,764.6
7,827.4
7,894.2
7,953.9
7,997.6
8,051.3
8,114.5
8,179.9
8,259.0
8,319.1

15.5
14.1
14.8
11.7
4.7
3.4

7.8
6.7
6.0
4.8
3.2

12.4
11.1
11.0
10.5
9.3
8.5
8.8
9.2
9.2
9.5
9.4

1988: Jan
Feb

758.9
759.6

2,925.5
2,946.8

3,687.3
3,718.7

4,372.2

8,374.6

9.7

Period

1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:

1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

26




Debt

Debt of
domestic
nonfmancLal
sectors
(monthlv
average) l

Perct nt change from yea r or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstei

M2

M3

42

22
2.9

3.7
3.1
1.7
2.4

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6

7.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.3
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.3
4.5

4.2
3.5

4.8
5.5

5.6
6.4

Debt

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

Currency

1980: Dec ' .. 115.3
1981: Dec
122.5
1982: Dec * .. 132.6
1983: Dec ' .. 146.3
1984: Dec ' .. 156.1
1985: Dec
167.7
1986: Dec
180.4
1987: Dec
196.5
1987:
Feb
183.6
Mar

Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov

Dec
1988:

Jan r

Feb"

Demand
deposits

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)

261.4
231.4
234.1
238.6
244.1
267.2
303.3
288.0

31.4
80.9
105.4
132.3
146.4
179.2
235.2
259.3

295.9
295.0
299.3
298.9
293.3
292.3
292.1
290.5
295.9
291.3
288.0

245.1
248.0
253.1
253.9
254.3
255.6
257.2
258.6
260.3
r
259.5
259.3

198.4 289.9
199.4 287.8

263.4
265.1

184.4
185.6
187.0
187.8
189.0
190.2
191.4
193.1
195.0
196.5

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

Money market
mutua fund
bala ices
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

Institution
onlv

NSA

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(HMD As)

Savings
deposits

Small
denomination
time
deposits 1

Large
denomination
time
deposits 1

Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

NSA

Savings
bonds

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

Bankers'
acceptances

Commercial
paper

NSA

NSA

28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
70.2
78.4
r
77.9

61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5
208.0
222.2

15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.5
84.4
89.6

0.0
.0
43.2
379.2
416.8
513.6
572.5
525.2

400.2
343.9
356.8
305.5
285.4
301.4
370.7
414.3

728.4
822.9
850.5
783.6
883.3
879.5
853.2
913.1

260.0
302.5
326.7
327.1
416.9
436.4
439.2
484.7

34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
61.9
65.6
84.0
r
105.4

50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
82.9
76.1
r
84.9
91.3

72.3
67.8
68.0
71.1
74.2
79.3
91.6
100.2

133.5
149.4
183.5
211.9
260.9
301.2
284.4
r
263.4

32.1
40.0
44.5
45.1
45.7
42.5

37.8
45.7

98.8
105.3
113.6
133.1
160.3
206.5
229.9
r
258.9

80.1
76.9
77.0
r
76.2
r
74.9
r
75.6
r
79.7
r
83.4
r
85.9
r
79.6
r
77.9

211.5
212.5
212.1
209.9
210.6
210.6
213.1
216.3
218.8
220.9
222.2

85.1
85.4
83.5
82.1
81.7
83.8
84.0
81.3
82.5
89.5
89.6

572.0
571.8
566.8
558.6
555.1
549.4
545.0
540.5
533.9
527.7
525.2

389.7
396.3
404.1
409.5
413.1
415.5
417.8
418.6
417.0
415.0
414.3

848.1
847.0
845.1
845.9
852.1
859.1
865.9
872.1
883.3
901.7
913.1

443.1
445.6
448.9
454.0
458.6
460.2
462.4
465.3
472.3
480.5
484.7

87.2
87.2
94.4
r
102.5
r
107.4
r
107.0
r
107.5
r
109.2
r
106.2
r
108.7
r
105.4

r

88.8
88.7
r
83.9
87.0
89.7
85.7
r
90.6
94.8
r
93.4
r
93.3
91.3

93.3
94.2
95.1
95.9
96.6
97.5
98.1
98.4
98.8
99.3
100.2

280.1
267.8
257.6
261.6
259.7
254.7
257.9
261.8
r
271.1
r
269.9
r
263.4

38.9
39.6
40.9
42.1
43.1
43.4
43.5
44.3
44.5
45.0
45.7

239.0
239.9
246.3
253.7
252.8
251.8
251.8
256.6
254.2
r
252.5
r
258.9

82.0
76.6

226.2
232.2

94.4
98.7

524.0
522.6

414.3
416.2

924.7
942.5

482.7
488.5

105.6
108.9

85.3
84.6

101.4

270.9

43.5

269.0

r

NSA

1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

r

r

NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown
here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandi 'g 1

Ins tallment credi outstanding (end of perio d)

Period

1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1987:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec r
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r
1988: Jan p
1

Revolving

Mobile
home

261,976
296,483
295,763
310,965
325,136
373,048
446,183
522,805
577,784
612,101

98,739
112,475
111,936
119,610
125,440
145,874
172,352
208,057
245,055
261,448

45,202
53,357
54,894
60,750
66,007
78,369
99,620
122,021
134,938
145,925

16,921
18,207
18,264
19,308
21,728
22,919
24,710
25,488
25,710
25,608

101,114
112,444
110,669
111,297
111,961
125,886
149,501
167,239
172,081
179,120

40,501
34,507
-720
15,202
14,171
47,912
73,135
76,622
54,979
34,317

17,791
13,736
-539
7,674
5,830
20,434
26,478
35,705
36,998
16,393

579,591
579,913
583,595
583,276
587,821
591,175
596,182
602,607
605,488
608,122
612,101

246,064
246,290
247,663
247,578
250,130
250,980
254,013
257,470
258,710
259,134
261,448

135,663
135,166
136,706
136,869
137,401
138,741
139,837
141,704
143,142
143,620
145,925

25,789
25,614
25,626
25,542
25,685
25,860
25,695
25,699
25,677
25,731
25,608

617,522

262,993

147,926

25,750

172,076
172,844
173,600
173,287
174,605
175,594
176,637
177,733
177,959
179,637
179,120
180,853

1,013
322
3,682
-319
4,545
3,354
5,006
6,425
2,881
2,634
3,980
5,421

592
226
1,373
-85
2,553
850
3,033
3,457
1,240
424
2,315
1,545

For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
month.




Automobile

Automobile

Total

Other

Total

Revolving

8,513
8,155
1,537
5,856
5,257
12,362
21,251
22,401
12,917
10,987
746
-496
1,540
163
532
1,340
1,096
1,867
1,438
477
2,305
2,001

Mobile
home
559
1,286
57
1,044
2,420
1,191
1,791

778
222
-102
-63
-175
12
-84
143
175
-165
4
22
54
-122
142

Other
13,638
11,330
-1,775
628
664
13,925
23,615
17,738
4,842
7,039
-262
768
756
-313
1,318
989
1,043
1,097
225
1,679
-518

1,733

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.2 percent in February.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

2,400

2,400
—

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

?,000

2,000

IOTAL

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200
LOANS AND LEASES

800

800

400

400
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

200

200

160

160

OTHER SECURITIES

120

hini m
1980

Ill
1981

1984

1983

1982

120

III

1987

1986

1985

• SEASONALIY ADJUSTED
SOURCE. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Al commercial ban i S

Depo itory institutio ns 3

1

Total loans
and

securities- 2

Total 2

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

1,239.1
1,307.5
1,401.3
1,553.4
1,722.9
1,908.6
2,089.9
2,230.6

913.9
967.3
1,033.9
1,123.7
1,320.4
1,456.9
1,584.5
1,701.4

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

2,120.1
2,130.7
2,152.0
2,166.0
2,176.7
2,181.3
2,199.0
2,214.7
2,227.6
2,232.1
2,230.6

1,613.5
1,622.3
1,639.6
1,649.3
1,659.6
1,664.1
1,676.8
1,689.8
1,701.7
1,704.8
1,701.4

1988: Jan
Feb"

2,242.0
2,257.7

1,713.9
1,727.9

1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:

Commercial
and industrial
loans
325.7
355.4
392.6




res erve requirem ents

U.S.
Government
securities

securities
Total

33.82
35.55
39.06
45.00
54.80
56.41

56.32
56.33
56.96
57.32
56.93
56.93
57.23
56.89
57.55
57.36
56.66

55.66
55.94
57.13
57.27
56.52
56.84
56.84
57.03
57.37
57.06
56.41

556
527
993
1,035
776
672
647
940
943
625
777

71
91
120
196
259
283
279
231
189
126
93

57.23
58.04

57.02
57.31

1,082
396

59
75

318.1
321.3
321.3
322.9
328.5
331.3
331.7
331.1
333.2

192.0
193.1
194.4
195.5
195.9
194.3
193.7
193.7
194.2
196.2
196.0

56.87
56.85
57.95
58.35
57.71
57.60
57.88
57.83
58.50
57.99
57.44

334.1
334.0

194.0
195.7

58.32
58.44

314.7
315.4

568.5
569.9

2
3

r

Seasonal

116
54
33
96
113
56
38
93

36.91
46.06
56.17
57.44

30.81
32.08
34.32
36.11

Total

1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
827
777

33.69
35.33
36.72
44.74
55.34
56.66

548.0
546.2
549.1
551.9
554.4
553.6
554.0
559.0
562.8
563.1
565.5

472.8
499.4
535.6
565.5

Required
30.29

154.7
160.9
165.7
170.6
142.6
181.2
196.1
196.0

414.1

borrowed
29.12
31.44

170.6
179.3
201.7
259.1
260.0
270.5
309.3
333.2

Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages
itutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not stricth
f month-end data for foreign-related
with data for earlier period; argely because beginning January 1984 curtain obligations
)f States and political si bdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.

28

Borr ) wings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)

E eserves adjust ElJ
for changes i 1

Loans a nd leases
Period

31.76

Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources
External
Period
Total

Internal

C edit market fu nds

l

Total
Total

1986:

1987:

Total

Other 2

340.7
322.5
r
330.7

85.8
76.9

r

216.1

r

85.2
109.5
96.1

57.3
-7.5
15.3
33.3
49.9

149.0
89.8
254.9

117.6
64.1
201.9

52.2
31.8
-12.2

65.3
32.4
214.1

31.4
25.7
53.0

r

r

r

r

96.2
155.4
137.4
203.2

30.9
117.7
82.0
153.7

92.3
22.3
58.1
26.7

-61.4
95.3
23.9
127.1

65.3
37.7
55.3
49.4

II
Ill
IV

499.9
442.0
597.1

350.9
352.2
342.2

r

439.4
496.2
488.3
556.4

343.2
340.8
350.9
353.2

87.8
92.7
94.5
80.4
88.6
121.6

21.0
53.1
22.8
44.0

1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3
Plant ai
Government.
Source: Board of G'

426.5
399.4
r
546.8
398.7
439.8
455.3
519.7

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

132.3
108,4
82.0
47.0
125.1
117.1
99.7
r
100.6
91.1

370.6
352.1
368.6
303.5
399.8
488.0
442.4
r
439.8
453.4

155.1
145.8
143.9
85.1
146.6
182.2
136.9
139.9
148.0

Increase in
financial
assets

238.3
243.7
286.5
256.5
274.7
370.9
342.8
339.2
362.3

67.3
53.2
49.3
4.7
58.0
60.7
51.7
30.4
52.0

197.6
200,1
239.5
242.3
285.7
336.3
355.4
351.5
347.0

I
II r
Ill r.
IV"

Loans and
short-term
paper

66.9
39.5
71.7
36.4
31.3
129.0
69.9
76.1
46.2

352.6
345.9
383.3
327.5
432.3
518.5
492.3
491.3
495.1

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 "

Securities
and
mortgages

Capital
expenditures 3

354.6
346.0
350.5
398.0

r

44.1
93.9
104.8
121.7

-17.9
-6.2
14.8
24.0

32.5
30.5
49.9
r
51.5
41.7
r

73.4
42.6
50.3

40.7
56.4
33.0
36.7

;nf, and mineral rights from U.S.
of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

C urrent liabiliti >s

Curren assets
End of period
Total

Cash

Governsecurities

Notes and
accounts
receivable

Invento-

Other
current
assets

Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

C
ratio 1

QFK-FRB series: 2
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,328.3
1,419.6
1,437.1
1,575.9
1,703.0
1,784.6

105.5
118.0
127.0
135.6
147.8
171.8
173.6
189.2

17.2
16.7
18.7
17.7

388.0
459.0
507.5
532.5

23.0
31.0
36.2
33.0

517.4

IV

1,575.9

171.8

I

1,619.5
1,650.0
1,685.9
1,703.0

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

550.9

374.3
407.5
437.8
448.3
451.1
516.3
539.5
551.0

1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1.458
1.487
1.464
1.447

463.9

516.3

1.487

601.9

491.2

623.4
642.2
647.8

502.9

526.5
523.7
530.8
539.5

1.482
1.465
1.460
1.464

1,174.1
1,182.9
1,211.9
1,233.6

636.9

537.1
531.2
541.5
550.9

548.6
551.7
551.1
551.0

1.467
1.466
1.455
1.447

1,222.3

668.4

553.9

573.4

1.469

633.1
671.5

543.0
584.0
579.0
603.4
656.9
666.0

101.1
116.0
132.1
149.7
169.8
186.7
203.2
224.9

669.5
807.3
890.6
971.3
986.0
1,059.6
1,163.6
1,233.6

383.0
460.8
514.4
547.1
550.7
595.7
647.8
682.7

31.0

583.0

603.4

186.7

1,059.6

595.7

167.6
164.9
161.3
173.6

35.4
37.2
33.0
36.2

606.4
622.6

622.2
632.5
659.3
656.9

187.9
192.9
193.2
203.2

1,093.1
1,126.3
1,155.0
1,163.6

167.5
167.1
176.3
189.2

35.7
35.4
32.6
33.0

650.3

IV

1,722.7
1,734.6
1,763.0
1,784.6

654.1
661.0
671.5

665.7
666.7
675.0
666.0

203.5
211.2
218.2
224.9

1986: I"

1,795.7

195.3

31.0

663.4

679.6

226.3

1983:
1984:

n
m
IV

1985: I
II

m

1

583.0

639.1
633.1

Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
2
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to




431.8

505.1

651.7
670.4
682.7

286.5
346.5
376.2

424.1
435.3
463.9

515.8

512.9
515.8

the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Burt
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates rose in March.
p

PER CENT PER ANNU V\
16

16

A/-I
•Ai
/''• \

|

:

.•

:

14
\e

!

I

Ktl
* \l 1

12

X

V

i \ \i

V—V"
:

r'

/ \I
(

4
A

L :
|/
1

t
/I

'N

N

\
\

CO TORATE Aaa BC
\

\

X

^ /

\

s

\

''J

14

/ / r\\ *

(MOODY'S)

•

v\
'•••:

Nos

\

X

7
\ ,_
' \
'
\^/

L '

'•-•

10

-A \

ij-

\

\
\

\

1
|

\
\

\

/ \

VA

^—

1

\

7
1
/
•
— DISCOUNT —
RATE
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK

A

/

8

\|

'*-

^

IL
'V-,

,-':

£

'••

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

i i

1980

1 i

1

M i l l

1 1 1 1 1 1 M

M M

1982

1981

M

i i i n

Mill

i i i i i

1 M 11

19 85

1984

1983

10
\
V.

1-''
"V

\.,/ "' 1

:•

A
/

\
/

/\

, •'"'

8

12

i
t -"""\

TRE ^SURY
[ ILLS

-

4 p 1 M

RCENT PER ANN JM

^~7

1 II ! 1 1 I Ml

-,..

'••,..

1 1 i

M

,.-•'""""

1 M M 1 1
1987

198*

1 1 1 1 M

] ^

4

1988

couNCIL

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BEL JW

6

O

F ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]
U.S. 1 reasury security yields

Period

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

3-month bills
(new issues) l

Constant nlaturities
3-year

2

10-year

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard3 &
Poor's)

Corporate
Aaa bonds4
(Moody's)

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months l

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
5

Bank)

14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
5.98
5.82

14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
7.06
7.68

13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
7.68
8.39

11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
9.18
7.38
7.73

14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
9.02
9.38

14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16

13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80

8.01
6.39
6.85

1987: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

5.56
5.76
5.75
5.69
5.78
6.00
6.32
6.40
5.81
5.80

6.58
7.32
8.02
7.82
7.74
8.03
8.67
8.75
7.99
8.13

7.25
8.02
8.61
8.40
8.45
8.76
9.42
9.52
8.86
8.99

6.71
7.62
8.10
7.89
7.83
7.90
8.36
8.84
8.09
8.07

8.36
8.85
9.33
9.32
9.42
9.67
10.18
10.52
10.01
10.11

1988:

5.90
5.69
5.69

7.87
7.38
7.49

8.67
8.21
8.37

7.81
7.55

5.64
5.62
5.74
5.65
5.76
5.69

7.35
7.33
7.45
7.44
7.60

8.20
8.17
8.32
8.33
8.48

7.60
7.53
7.74
7.89
7.90

Jan
Feb
Mar"
Week ended:
1988: Feb 27
Mar 5
12
19
26
Apr 2
1

Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2

30



Prime rate
charged bybanks 5

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) e

7.69
6.33
5.66

18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33
8.22

14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
10.17
9.31

6.10
6.50
7.04
7.00
6.72
6.81
7.55
7.96
7.17
7.49

5.50 5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50 5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00

7.50 7.50
7.75-7.75
8.00 8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.75
8.75-9.00
9.00-8.75
8.75-8.75

9.14
9.21
9.37
9.45
9.41
9.38
9.37
9.25
9.30
9.15

9.88
9.40
9.37

6.92
6.58
6.63

6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-

8.75-8.75
8.75-8.50
8.50-

9.33
9.27
9.34
9.36
9.44

6.60
6.57
6.60
6.63
6.68

6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-

8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-

r

9.10
9.16

5

Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in March.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOS CALE)

INDE> , DEC. 31, 196
5 = 50 (RATIOS CALE)

240
220
200
180

240
220
200
180

-yC*T

160

_ -

140

100

\

XIr^~—iv^

60

A
—VT*/

40

in nil .... Illllllllll

\

160

\S

140
120
100

•<~^^

1

/""•

*/

80

'

f
*-

COMPC SITE STOCK PR CE INDEX
(NYSE)

120

_t

80

/
^J

1980

60

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

1981

1983

1982

1984

1985

Illllllllll

Illllllllll

1987

1988

1986

40

PERC:ENT

PERC ENT

20

20
15

EAR NINGS-PRICE R ATIO ON COM MON STOCKS
(S&P)

-*^—

^^

^|

.-^~~

^\

10

15

JU
__.— —

^-r_.

10

~^
1

5
1

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1981

1980

1
1982

1

1

1

1

1

1983

I

1

1984

1

1

1

1985

•
1

1

'— ^
1

1986

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A ND STANDARD & POC R'S CORPORATION

5
1

1

1

1987

Co mmon stock price s >

1981
1982
1983
1984

74.02
68.93
92.63

Industrial

85.44
78.18

72.61
60.41
89.36

1985
1986
1987
1987: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar"

92.46
108.09
136.00
161.70
166.43
163.88
163.00
169.58
174.28
184.18
178.39
157.13
137.21
134.88
140.55
145.13
150.03

107.45
108.01
123.79
155.85
195.31
198.95
199.03
198.78
206.61
214.12
226.49
219.52
189.86
163.42
162.19
168.47
173.44
181.74

85.63
104.11
119.87
140.39
138.55
137.91
141.30
150.39
157.48
164.02
158.58
140.95
117.57
115.85
121.20
126.09
135.20

Week ended:
1988: Feb 27
Mar 5
12
19
26

148.25
150.49
150.40
151.33
150.08

178.23
181.38
182.22
183.58
182.14

131.08
133.88
134.73
135.37
137.43

1

Utility

3




Finance

38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
71.36
74.30

73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

932.92
884.36
1,190.34

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10) 4
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
236.34

70.01
72.89
71.24

114.21
147.20
146.48
162.41
150.52
145.97
152.73
152.25
160.94
154.08
137.35
118.30
111.47
119.40
124.36
125.44

1,178.48
1,328.23
1,792.76
2,275.99
2,292.61
2,302.64
2,291.11
2,384.02
2,481.72
2,655.01
2,570.80
2,224.59
1,931.86
1,910.07
1,947.35
1,980.65
2,046.86

268.83
292.47
289.32
289.12
301.38
310.09
329.36
318.66
280.16
245.01
240.96
250.48
258.13
266.05

72.81
72.75
71.09
71.71
70.86

125.19
127.59
126.60
125.79
124.33

2,032.03
2,066.94
2,054.54
2,067.04
2,040.75

263.83
267.64
266.93
268.70
265.67

77.15
72.74
71.64
74.25
74.18
78.20
76.13
73.27
69.86
67.39

Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the"stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2

1

0

1988

Common s ock yields
(perce nt) 5

Period
Composite

1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Ne\v York Stock Ex change indexes (] IBC. 31, 1965 — 5O ) 2

Transporta-

1

Dividendprice ratio

Earningsprice ratio

5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
3.49
3.08

11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02

2.93
2.99
3.02
2.92
2.83
2.69
2.78
3.25
3.66
3.71

5.18

8.12
6.09

4.75
r

4.93

3.66
3.56

3.48
3.45
3.43
3.45
3.45

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 5 months of fiscal 1988, there was a deficit of $89.7 billion compared with a deficit of $94.4 billion a
year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

500

500

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-fJ

-100

-100

-200

-200
1980

1982

1981

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1989

1988

FISCAL YEARS
I/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5

-70.5

-53.6
-59.2
— 40.2

231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3

-13.3
-49.7
-54.9
-38.2

66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0

69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
207.8
-185.3

403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4

476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0

-72.7
-73.9
-120.0
-208.0
-185.6

113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1

734.1
769.1
854.1
909.2
964.7

946.3
990.3
1,004.6
1,055.9
1,094.2

-212.3
-221.2
150.4
-146.7
-129.5

547.9
568.9
640.7
669.3
706.2

769.5
806.8
810.8
852.8
880.9

-221.6
-237.9
-170.0
183.5
— 174.7

327.2
347.0

421.6
436.7

-94.4
-89.7

243.6
255.5

342.8
354.9

-99.2
-99.4

1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979

298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3

371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503,5

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5

1985
1986
1987
1988 (estimates)
1989 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 5
months: *
Fiscal year 1987
Fiscal year 1988

-73.7
-14.7

Gross Fe feral debt
(end of period)

Off-budget

Ou-budget

Total
Fiscal year or period

Surplus
or deficit
/ \

Held by
tbe public

-3.9
-4.3
-2.0

631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8

480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6

114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8

— 1.1
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3

914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7

715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6

186.2
200.2
213.4
239.9
258.5

176.8
183.5
193.8
203.1
213.3

9.4
16.7
19.6
36.8
45.1

1,827.5
2,130.0
2,355.3
2,581.6
2,825.3

1,509.9
1,746.1
1,897.8
2,025.1
2,152.1

83.6
91.5

78.8
81.8

4.9
9.7

2,245.1
2,479.7

1,834.3
1,986.9

-3.2
— 1.4

except as noted.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Offic of Management and Budget.

32




FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 5 months of fiscal 1988, receipts were $19.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $15.1
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
RECEIPTS-

400

400

"INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

300

300
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS

200

200

OTHER RECEIPTS

100

100
CORPORATION INCOME TAXES |

0

0

-OUTLAYS^ .

800

800
NONDEFENSE

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400
NATIONAL DEFENSE

300

300
200

200

100

100
1981

1980

1982

1984

1983

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

FISCAL YEARS
_!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

0 i-budget nd off-bu( get reeeip ts

Fiscal year
Total

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
income

Social
insurance
taxes

On-budp et and ofl budget 01 tla.vs
Nations 1 defense
Other

Touil
I otai

298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3

131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8

41.4
54.9
60.0

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1

244.1

599.3

285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4

646
61.1

1985
1986
1987

734.1
769.1
854.1

1988 (estimates)
1989 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 5 months:
Fiscal year 1987
Fiscal year 1988

6.4
7.5
7.5

1340
157.5
185.3

1309
153.8
180.7

851.8

209.9
227.4

204.4
220.9

12 7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9

27.4
28.6
30.4

32 1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5

946.3
990.3
1,004.6
1,055.9
1,094.2

252.7
273.4
282.0
285.4
294.0

245.1

354.6

73.0
73.1
74.3
78.7
80.1

265.5
274.0
277.3
285.5

16.2
14.2
11.6
9.9
13.3

33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
47.8

65.8
70.2
75.1
78.9
84.0

116.5
126.0

30.3
31.5

421.6

114.1
119.9

110.7
116.6

6.0
3.2

15.7
17.8

30.8
31.4

121.0
138.9

37.7
40.8

49.2

157 8
182.7
201.5

37.0
56.9

209.0
239.4

506
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8

61.3
63.1
83.9
105.6
117.7

265.2
283.9
303.3

909.2
964.7

334.5
349.0
392.6
393.4
412.4

327.2
347.0

158.1
163.6

22.4

25.9

600.6
666.5

331.5

Income
secnri-

Social
sceuri-

Net
inter-

v'

V

est

Other

371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5

590 9
678.2
745.7
808.3

87.!)

6.4

15.7
17.3

18.5
20.5
23 2
26.9

15.8

19.3
22.8
26.5

60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4

73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1

29.9
35.4
42.6

86 5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7

118 5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2

52 5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1

128.2
119.8

188.6
198.8

123.3
129.6
135.6

207.4
233.8

129.4
136.0
138.6
147.9
151.8

53.0
52.8

84.2
88.3

58.9
64.4

219.7

26.7

82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
131 4
133.5
125.4
122.3

118.6
131.8
142.1

126.7
140.1
133.9

l

1
From Monthly Treasury Statement for February 1988. Data for outlays and debt are not strictly comparable with estimates in the Budget for fiscal year 1989.

NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1989, February I988,




Medicare

95.1
102.3
113.6

34.3
36.6

617.8

Health

89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3

90.8
106.5

65.7

national

military

hutions

1976
1977
1978
1979

Department of

436.7

58.9
59.0

except as noted.
Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the fourth quarter of 1987, according to current estimates, Federal receipts rose $13.4 billion (annual rate) and
Federal expenditures rose $39.0 billion, yielding a deficit of $161.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1,000

1,000
EXPENDITURES

800

800

600

600
RECEIPTS

400

400

200

200

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

-200

-200

I
1979

I

I

J

1980

I

I

1981

1982

I

I

J

J I

I

1985

1984

1983

1986

1987

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Federal C overnment expenditure s

Federa Governme tit receipts

Period

Fiscal year:
1984
1985
1986
1987
Calendar year:
1984
1985
1986
1987 r
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV
1985: I

n
in

IT
1986: I
II

m

IV

1987: I

n
mr

IV

Total

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Contributions for
social
insurance

Total

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Transfer
payments

in-aid to
State
and
local
governments

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enter-

Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

or deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts

711.9
776.4
814.2
905.6

302.5
340.6
358.0
401.9

75.3
74.3
80.3
104.0

54.9
56.0
51.7
54.1

279.2
305.6
324.1
345.6

873.0
961.0
1,027.8
1,055.1

297.2

340.4
368.4
374.9

352.2
374.0
394.8
410.1

90.7
97.8
107.4
103.1

109.7
128.0
134.3
139.6

23.3
20.7
22.9
27.5

0.1
-.1

.0
.1

-161.0
-184.5
-213.6
- 149.5

726.0
788.6
827.4
915.4
633.1
675.5
742.7
795.3
759.0
794.9
805.1
807.6
816.9
832.4
852.5

310.3

346.6
363.0
403.7
303.0
291.9
326.0
361.2
317.5
351.0
356.7
352.8
357.6
365.2
376.4

75.2
76.1
83.7
109.2
46.4
70.2
69.7
74.2
73.5
79.1
77.8
78.7
81.3
84.3
90.5

55.7
55.2
50.9
54.1
47.6
53.6
56.2
55.0
59.2
53.1
53.7
50.4
49.9
52.1
51.1

284.7
310.6
329.8
348.4
236.1
259.8
290.7
304.9
308.8
311.7
316.9
325.8
328.1
330.7
334.5

895.6
984.6
1,032.0
1,067.1
835.7
844.7
930.2
958.2
969.4
990.8
1,020.2
1,003.7
1,047.1
1,036.1
1,041.2

310.5
353.9
366.2
379.4
293.2
276.1
326.0
336.3
339.4
361.9
378.0
356.7
368.4
371.2
368.6

354.9
380.1
399.9
413.5
347.4
352.5
362.1
373.9
377.0
383.7
385.8
389.9
398.3
405.9
405.7

93.6
99.7
106.9
103.4
84.5
86.0
96.3
95.9
98.9
100.2
103.7
105.4
109.6
109.5
102.8

115.6
130.2
135.7
142.8
87.2
101.0
125.3
127.7
130.4
129.7
133.0
134.9
135.9
134.2
137.8

21.2
20.5
23.3
28.0

23.4
29.1
21.0
24.5
22.6
15.3
19.7
16.8
34.9
15.3
26.3

.2
-.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.6
.1
-1.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

-169.6
-196.0
-204.7
-151.7
-202.6
-169.2
-187.5
-162.9
-210.3
-195.8
-215.0
-196.1
-230.2
-203.7
-188.7

879.3
922.9
923.0
936.4

381.5
415.6
404.3
413.5

103.0
107.9
114.5
111.2

53.3
54.2
53.9
54.9

341.5
345.2
350.3
356.8

1,049.8
1,062.1
1,058.8
1,097.8

366.9
379.6
382.1
388.9

406.7
412.0
413.4
421.8

102.2
106.0
103.5
102.0

139.5
139.8
142.9
148.9

34.3
24.8
17.2
35.8

.0
.0
.3
-.3

-170.5
-139.2
-135.8
-161.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

34




INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
(Consumer prices (19 K-84=100

Industrial reduction (1977 = 1 JO; seasonal V adjusted
Period

United
States

1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 "

97.9
104.3
119.0
125.2
126.8
132.6

128.2
129.1

130.6
131.2
131.0
132.5
133.2
133.8

Sept
r

r

1988: Jan"
Feb"

Japan

France

Germany

119.2

106
106
104
105
105
106
106

108.0

120.4
120.9
125.1
138.9
145.1
144.6
144.9
147.4
145.4
143.7
149.3
151.0
149.3
153.9
157.0
156.9

107
108
107
109
110
109
109
110
110
110
110

115.0
114.5
115.8
116.6
115.1
113.7
118.5
116.3
116.7
116.8
117.3

129.3
' 129.9
' 129.9
130.8
' 132.1
' 131.8
' 134.2
' 135.0
* 136.0
137.2
137.4

127.1
127.4
127.4

Aug

1

108.1
108.6

103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
129.8

June
July

Dec

108.6
111.0

125.1

1987: Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav

Oct
Nov

Canada

134.2
134.4

United
Kingdom

Italy

99.8
96.4
98.2
101.7
103.1
107.9
T
109.5

114.4
112.6

106.2
103.1
104.1
107.6
112.9
115.1
115.7

108.5
105.8
109.4
110.9
114.4

'112.9
r

117.0
119.5
117.3
121.5
118.0
117.4
112.5
116.7
121.9
119.8

!11.6

r

111.9

l]1.5
l!2.3
l!2.3
r
l!3.0
r
l!4.7
r

r

r

113.6
' 114.6
* 114.9
115.3

117.8

114.6

United
States 1

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

Italy

United
Kingdom

82.4

76.1

90.9
96.5
99.6
103.9
107.6
109.6
113.6

85.6
94.9
100.4
104.8
108.9
113.4
118.4

90.9
95.4
98.0
99.9
102.1
104.2
104.9
105.0

72.2
81.9
91.7
100.3
108.0
114.3
117.2
121.1

86.7
92.2
97.1
100.3
102.7
104.9
104.6
105.0

63.2
ISA
87.7
100.8
111.5
121.0
128.5
134.4

78.5
87.9
95.4
99.8
104.8
111.2
114.9
119.7

111.6
112.1
112.7
113.1
113.5
113.8
114.4
115.0
115.3
115.4
115.4

116.3
116.8
117.3
118.0
118.3
119.2
119.3
119.3
119.7
120.2
120.3

103.9
104.3
105.2
105.4
105.2
104.7
104.8
105.7
105.7
105.2
105.1

119.8
120.0
120.6
120.9
121.1

104.7
104.7
104.9
105.0
105.2
105.2
105.1
104.9
105.0
105.0
105.2

132.1
132.6
132.9
133.4
133.9
134.3
134.6
135.6
136.8
137.2
137.4

118.0
118.2
119.6
119.7
119.7
119.6
120.0
120.3
120.9
121.5
121.4

115.7
116.0

120.5
121.0

104.8

122.4

' 105.4
105.6

138.1
138.5

121.4

121.4
121.7

121.7
122.0
122.2
122.2

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).

Data relate to all urban consumers.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data not seasonally adjusted]
Merctu ndise cxp orts 1

Period

Revised
statistical
month,
adjusted2

Revised
statistical
month

mon h)

Statistical
month

Total

3

Gc neral imp orts

238.7

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987

205.6
224.0

216.4
218.8
226.8
252.9

1987: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

16.8
19.4
21.8
20.5
20.8

June
July

21.1

Oct
Nov
Dec

21.0
20.2
21.0
21.8
23.8
24.8

1988: Jan

22.3

Aug
Sept

1

23 3.7
21 2.3

20 1.5
218.7 217.9
212.8 213.1
216.6 217.3

228.9

207.1
195.9
212.0

246.4

206.9
206.4
243.9

16.4
18.7

16.2
18.7

21.1
20.1
20.4
20.5
20.1
20.0

21.1

21.0
21.0
23.3
23.9

19.8
20.0
20.3
20.3
19.5
20.2
21.0
23.0
23.9

21.9

21.4

Pood,
beverages,
and
tobacco

Crude
materials
and
fuels

33.2
27.0
27.0
27.3
22.2
20.2
22.8

33.0
33.5
29.6
31.5
28.3
26.5
29.1

1.6
1.6
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1

2.1
2.2

Manufactured
goods

Revised
statistical
month

Statistical
month

(statistical m onth exe ipt as nol ed)

Food,
beverages,
and
tobacco

Crude
materials
and
fuels

Total (c.i.f.
va ue)
Manufactured
goods

Revised
statistical
month

Statistical
month

Exports (f.a.s.) less
import (customs
V alue)
Revised
statistical
month,
adjusted2

Revised
statistical
month

Exports ( .a.s.) less
imports (c i.f. value)
Revised
statistical
month,
adjusted2

Revised
statistical
month

Gusto ms value

2.4
2.3

2.2

2.2
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.1

2.1

2.6

154.3
26 .0
139.7
24'1.0
132.4
25 i.O
325.7
143.1
145.4
345.3
148.7 366.1 370.0
171.5 405.9

11.0
13.2
15.0
14.2
14.5
14.5
13.9
13.7
14.8
16.2
16.1

27.5
32.3
33.2
32.0
33.3
35.3
35.8
34.3
33.6
37.7
35.5
35.4

14.9

33.2

14.4

Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments are excluded through
1984 and for revised statistical month data for 1985-86; they are included for statistical month data
for 1985-86 and for 1987.
2
Adjusted to include undocumented exports to Canada.
3
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. For exports data
beginning 1987, these include undocumented exports to Canada.
4
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.




4

Tot a l 3

F a.s. valu e

1981
1982

Merchandise tr ade balance

Merch andise in ports

Domt stic expor ts (statis ical

Tola domestic and
foreign

18.4
17.8
18.8
21.6
22.4
24.7
24.7
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.1

2.0
22
2.1
1.9
1.9
9
2
2.1
2.0
2.1

142.5
144.0

27 i.4
25'1.9

163.4
221.5

26 i.9
341.2
361.6
387.1
424.1

92.9
74.4
68.0
72.8
65.0
48.3
56.3

282.1
312.6

3.4

21.3

4.4
4.2
3.9
4.4

24.8
25.7
25.1

246.8

-22.3
— 27.5
-52.4

346.4
352.5
383.0

-101.7
-126.5
-139.3
-153.0

-10.7
-12.9
-11.4
-11.5
-12.5
-14.1
-14.8
-14.1
-12.6
-16.0
-11.7
-10.6
-10.9

4.9
5.6
5.6
4.9
5.3
5.0
4.7

25.8
27.2
27.2
25.8
25.6
28.8
27.4
27.8

28.7
33.7
34.7
33.5
34.8
36.8
37.5
35.9
35.1
39.4
37.0
37.0

4.6

25.6

34.8

5
5

-39.7
-38.4 -42.6
-64.2 -69.3
-107.0 — 122.4 -127.6
-27.3
-31.8
-57.6

-34.6

-132.5 -133.6 -139.7

- 149.4 -156.2 -166.3
-159.5 -171.2

-177.6

-11.0
-13.6
-12.1
-11.8
— 12.9
-14.7
-15.8
-14.3
-12.6
-16.8
-12.1
-11.6

-11.9
-14.4
-12.9
-13.0
-14.0
-15.7
-16.5
-15.7
— 14.1
-17.6
-13.2
-12.2

-12.3
-15.1
- 13.6
-13.3
— 14.4
-16.3
-17.4
-15.9
-14.1
-18.4
-13.7
-13.1

-11.3

-12.4

-12.9

5

Revised statistical month exports less statistical month customs value imports.
NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Statistical month and revised statistical month refer only to data for 1984-86. Data for 1987 are
roughly equivalent to revised statistical month data.
For"fiirther information, see Bureau of the Census release FT900, April and August 1987.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter of 1987, the current account deficit decreased to $39.0 billion and the merchandise trade
deficit fell to $40.2 billion.
BILL ONS OF DOLL ^RS*

BILLIONS OF DOLL ARS*

10

10

5 —

/*•**-!^v
//"• '*N>-—O~~^\
j~^
.-V.
ft ^'

N./N\_^
0

"xX v>~.

/

\
**

\
\

*./

/\-''
-15

,

MERCHA MDISE TRADE
BA LANCE

\

\\
''

^_

'\\

^\

X

v

V

X1
\

-25

-5

s' \

*.
s

\~^~~*S

—

\

5

0

\\

..J BALAh•4CEON
CURRENT ACCOUNT

-5

—

\

20

\\

/
/N>A \
0v/
V-\\
v '
~^x \ _\
X*"'••»- ^^^
/

—

\ ^X-x/

—

-15

BALA NCE ON GOODS
A ND SERVICES

-25

N

-"X,!\A

___

-35

!

-45

1 !

1

1

1

1980

1979

1

1
1981

1

1

1 1
1982

1

1
1983

1

i i i

i i i

i i i

1984

1985

1986

\7
i iv i

-35

40
-45

1987

* SEASONALLY ADJU TED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)]

1m estment mcom e 3

Merchandise : 2
Period
Exports

Imports

Net balance

Receipts

Payments

Net

travel and
transportation
receipts

Other
services,
net 3

Balance on
goods and
services

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers '

-997
-2,237
144
-1,183
-992
-274
-4,227
-243
-8,604
-1,942
-3,339 -10,866
-9,903
-3,662
-2,079 — 11,626
-273 -1,874
-615
-2,039
-2,310
-255
-2,381
-798
-2,261
-242
-782 -2,849
— 794 -2,892
-2,862
-1,519
-1,298 -2,786
2 278
— 1,054
-2^442
-815
-495
-2,397
-37 -3,198
29 -2,759
-735
— 2,761
-1,335 -2,909

7,793
9,278
9,320
9,908
9,741
9,861
11,368
11,208
2,629
2,513
2,436
2,164
2,296
2,458
2,403
2,704
2,618
2,808
2,784
3,156
2,808
2,609
3,050
2,741

9,466
14,344
278
-36,766
-94,835
-101,093
-125,694
— 147,213
-17,923
-25,379
-25,045
-26,486
-22,918
-25,858
. -24,370
' —27,944
-30,019
-29,588
-32,249
-33,839
-33,834
-38,274
-40,517
-34,589

-7,593
-7,460
-8,956
-9,480
-12,178
-15,301
-15,658
-13,467
-2,362
-2,461
-3,112
-4,243
-3,296
-3,517
-4,169
-4,321
-3,021
-4,167
-4,334
-4,138
-3,075
-3,064
-2,925
-4,404

Net
mill tan
transjic*

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987"
1984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: 1
II
Ill
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I *
II r.
Ill r....
IV....

224,269
237,085
211,198
201,820
219,900
215,935
224,361
250,814
53,614
54,590
55,691
56,005
55,064
54,040
53,367
53,464
53,878
56,928
56,534
57,021
56,769
59,875
65,110
69,060

36




-249,749
-265,063
-247,642
-268,900
— 332,422
-338,083
-368,700
-410,015
-79,415
-83,684
-84,144
-85,179
-79,946
-83,986
-84,573
-89,578
-88,856
-90,579
-93,649
-95,616
-95,689
-99,617
- 105,475
-109,234

-25,480
-27,978
— 36,444
-67,080
-112,522
-122,148
-144,339
-159,201
-25,801
-29,094
-28,453
— 29,174
-24,882
-29,946
-31,206
— 36,114
-34,978
-33,651
— 37,115
-38,595
-38,920
-39,742
-40,365
-40,174

72,506
86,411
83,549
77,251
85,910
88,299
88,209
99,772
22,831
21,052
21,515
20,512
18,530
21,931
24,174
23,665
24,076
22,013
21,333
20,787
24,963
22,464
22,689
29,657

-42,120
-52,329
-54,883
-52,376
-67,419
-62,901
-67,365
-85,288
- 15,435
-17,196
-17,978
-16,809
-16,359
-16,670
-16,055
-13,818
-17,651
-17,426
- 15,994
- 16,295
-19,450
-20,875
-22,395
-22,569

30,386
34,082
28,666
24,875
18,491
25,398
20,844
14,484
7,396
3,856
3,537
3,703
2,171
5,261
8,119
9,847
6,425
4,587
5,339
4,492
5,513
1,589
294
7,088

Net

Balance
on current
account

1,873
6,884
-8,679
-46,246
-107,013
-116,393
-141,352
-160,681
-20,285
-27,840
-28,157
-30,729
-26,214
-29,375
-28,539
-32,265
-33,040
-33,755
-36,583
-37,977
-36,909
-41,338
-43,442
-38,993

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $23.3 billion in the fourth quarter of
1987 compared with an increase of $20.1 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by
U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $32.3 billion in the fourth quarter compared to an increase of
$44.4 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

80

80

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET

60

60

40

20

CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
ABROAD, NET

-20

-40

-60

-60

1987

1979
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as uoted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
increase/capit il outflow (-)]
Period
Total

U.S.
official
reserve
assets ' 2

Other U.S.
Government
assets

Foreign assets in the J.S., net
[increas ^/capital inflovv ( + )] 2
U.S.
private
assets

Foreign
offieial
assets

Other
foreign
assets

58,112
83,032
93,746
84,869
102,467
129,872
213,386
202,585

15,497
4,960
3,593
5,845
2,987
-1,140
34,698
44,289

42,615
78,072
90,154
79,023
99,481
131,012
178,689
158,297

Total

Statistical c iscrepancv
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

24,982
19,942
36,085
11,154
26,837
17,920
23,947
21,892

assets, net *
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

-86,118
-110,951
-121,153
-49,777
-22,291
-31,399
-95,982
-63,796

-8,155
-5,175
-4,965
-1,196
-3,131
-3,858
312
9,151

-5,162
-72,802
-5,097 - 100,679
-6,131 -110,058
-5,006
-43,576
-5,476
-13,685
-2,831
-24,711
-1,920
-94,374
1,219
-74,166

1984: I
II
Ill
IV

-3,602
-19,395
17,421
-16,712

— 657
— 566
-799
— 1,110

-2,029
-1,340
-1,388
-717

-916
-17,490
19,608
-14,886

22,120
41,862
2,392
36,094

-2,953
-149
-963
7,052

25,073
42,011
3,355
29,042

1,767
5,373
8,344
11,347

1,417
-1,381
-3,851
3,809

34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934

1985: I
II
Ill
IV

-1,745
-1,551
-6,936
-21,167

-233
-356
-121
-3,148

-782
-1,067
-435
-547

-730
-128
-6,380
-17,473

16,423
25,202
35,020
53,227

-11,060
8,606
2,426
-1,111

27,484
16,596
32,594
54,338

11,535
5,724
455
205

1,725
-1,712
-3,781
3,766

35,493
36,088
38,295
43,186

1986: I
II
Ill
IV

— 13,770
-25,529
— 24,478
-32,204

-115
16
280
132

-240
-242
— 1,454
15

-13,415
-25,303
-23,304
-32,351

36,322
49,042
69,591
58,431

2,576
15,568
15,551
1,003

33,746
33,475
54,040
57,428

10,488
10,241
-8,530
11,750

2,294
-2,044
-4,153
3,904

44,919
46,595
48,087
48,517

1987: I r
II r
Ill r...

15,351
-15,078
27,172
-36,898

1,956
3,419
32
3,743

225
-177
355
816

13,170
-18,320
-27,559
—41,457

26,754
49,564
67,389
58,878

13,953
10,070
363
19,904

12,802
39,494
67,026
38,974

— 5,197
6,852
3,226
17,013

2,659
-1,700
-4,833
3,577

48,824
45,140
45,070
45,798

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987"

IV...
1

Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), com-'
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data arc not seasonally adjusted.




1,152
1,093

26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186
48,517
45,798

Sources: Departm lit of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

Page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricuhural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricukural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent, of Documents, U.S. Government. Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign).
Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $88.75 for foreign mailing.

38




U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

:

1988

0—83-679