Full text of Economic Indicators : July 1982
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97tb Longress, 2d Session Economic Indicators JULY 1982 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1982 Ptliic * STAR PRINT Si SEP % 1 1982 /Z313 W°' JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) PAULA HAWKINS (Florida) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) LtOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MURRAY L. WEIDENBAUM, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN JERRY L. JORDAN [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy ($3.45 foreign), or by subscription at $21.00 per year ($26.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $51.9 billion or 7.1 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.7 percent, annual rate, and the implicit price deflator rose at a 5.3 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 3,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 3,000 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,600 2,600 GNP . IN CURRENT DOLLARS _ 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1 1975 1974 1 I 1 1978 1976 1979 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I 1982 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Federal Net exports Exports National defense 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.4 153.7 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.8 75.2 193.3 207.0 130.5 138.1 62.8 68.9 345.2 352.8 2,664.8 2,757.1 578.1 583.2 600.2 626.3 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 143.1 150.5 154.4 166.9 73.9 67.7 75.7 83.6 361.1 365.0 370.1 375.7 2,852.7 2,877.2 2,949.1 2,989.9 630.1 631.9 249.7 244.1 166.2 172.2 83.5 71.9 380.4 387.8 3,031.1 3,067.0 298.2 323.2 538.5 559.8 31.2 23.7 25.9 23.5 365.4 368.9 367.2 367.9 334.2 345.1 341.3 344.4 31.3 35.6 359.9 360.9 328.6 325.3 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 339.2 367.3 1980: III IV 2,643.7 2,739.4 1,682.0 1,745.8 384.1 410.3 39.0 23.5 1981: I II in 2,864.9 2,901.8 2,980.9 3,003.2 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 1982: I II* 2,995.5 3,047.4 1,919.4 1,950.8 414.8 429.1 68.8 77.5 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars, and beginning 1973 for deflators and 1972 dollars. 64.7 76.7 95.4 State and local 1,070.0 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,643.1 2,917.3 337.2 346.7 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 .7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 4.0 -1.1 13.2 25.2 26.1 4.1 Nondefense 138.7 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 341.2 368.0 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.0 341.3 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 Total 96.2 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 672.2 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 IV Imports 234.9 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 538.4 596.9 1,077.6 1,185.9 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,633.1 2,937.7 1971 1972 1973 1974 Goven iment purchs ses of goc ds and servi ces Exports ar d imports of goods and services 70.2 73.1 72.8 77.0 26.0 28.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures (5ross private dom estic investnlent Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 112.2 EJ ports of goods and services in business inventories Net exports Exports 126.7 146.2 159.2 158.5 53.1 45.6 155.9 155.1 102.8 109.6 48.2 44.2 39.2 36.5 159.3 159.7 157.8 156.9 36.9 35.6 151.7 152.3 8.1 10.2 17.2 11.6 6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -5.0 9.0 1.6 .7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.6 42.0 71.0 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 1978 1979 1980 1981 53.7 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.2 44.9 1980: m IV 1,463.8 1,479.4 928.0 941.0 163.8 166.4 44.0 49.5 -8.5 -6.2 1981: I 1,507.8 1,502.2 1,510.4 1,490.1 951.1 944.6 951.4 943.4 169.7 170.1 173.9 174.2 49.6 47.3 42.9 39.9 1,470.7 1,476.8 949.1 956.3 172.0 168.2 38.9 39.2 1982: I n " -15.4 -6.9 Federal 103.7 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 166.1 172.0 2.4 12.1 16.5 4.8 Total 250.1 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.6 287.1 696.8 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 930.5 947.6 n m rv Imports 69.3 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.6 116.4 1,122.4 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,474.0 1,502.6 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Governm int purchases of goods and services State and local 146.4 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 sales 106.5 110.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 178.1 176.7 1,114.3 1,175.3 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.0 1,493.7 283.4 283.2 105.5 104.8 177.9 178.4 1,472.4 1,485.7 111.1 115.5 118.7 120.4 286.8 283.9 286.4 291.3 107.9 107.0 110.7 116.0 179.0 176.9 175.7 175.3 1,505.4 1,490.1 1,493.9 1,485.3 114.7 116.8 289.2 284.5 114.4 109.4 174.9 175.0 1,486.1 1,483.7 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars, and beginning 1973 for deflators and 1972 dollars. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross national product Personal ecmsumption expenciitures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic inves ment Services dential fixed 159.7 173.7 191.6 208.2 187.9 190.8 221.8 223.4 216.3 223.5 290.1 294.9 183.3 197.5 194.0 197.8 189.6 193.4 198.6 203.6 194.5 200.7 203.0 206.8 229.0 231.7 235.8 239.2 229.3 230.9 232.6 234.5 300.7 298.7 287.7 286.1 201.2 204.0 207.8 216.0 201.7 206.3 210.7 214.3 207.4 210.7 207.6 210.5 240.5 241.8 237.3 237.0 286.4 278.6 218.3 223.1 217.5 221.5 95.6 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.3 96.2 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.1 201.3 1980: m 180.60 185.16 181.2 185.5 158.0 161.1 190.5 195.1 180.9 185.4 1981: 190.01 193.17 197.36 201.55 189.2 192.6 196.4 199.8 163.0 166.2 169.7 171.3 199.3 201.7 204.2 205.6 203.68 206.35 202.2 204.0 173.0 174.6 206.8 206.9 I IV 1982: I n" NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1973. State and local 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.6 96.6 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.4 202.7 n m Federal 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 213.1 231.8 99.0 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.3 167.5 rv Imports 92.7 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.4 96.5 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.2 194.5 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Exports Governmen £ purchases of goods aiid services 93.3 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.3 293.1 96.01 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.64 195.51 1971 1972 Residential fixed Exports a id imports of goods a id services 94.8 100.0 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 97.0 100.0 112.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 94.7 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption e xpenditures Ore ss national pr sduct Period Current dollars n m IV 19.6 5.3 11.4 3.0 0.2 3.4 5.7 5.8 .6 — 1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.4 1.9 1.6 4.3 7.9 -1.5 2.2 -5.3 I Hp -1.0 7.1 -5.1 1.7 5.2 8.6 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.9 11.6 11.4 15.3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: in IV 1981: I 1982: Constant (1972) dollars Implicit price deflator Chain price index 5.4 5.0 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.3 9.4 5.3 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.6 10.5 10.9 6.8 9.0 8.8 4.3 5.3 9.7 11.0 9.3 8.2 9.2 8.4 5.0 4.7 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 9.0 9.4 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 5.2 4.8 4.0 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.6 10.6 15.6 16.1 13.0 4.4 11.3 3.4 7.6 6.7 10.0 8.4 8.9 8.5 4.8 4.6 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 2.2 3.7 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .3 1.8 5.4 5.7 4.6 4.3 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.3 8.6 4.6 4.3 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.1 4.5 4.2 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.2 9.3 9.6 9.8 4.4 -2.7 2.9 -3.3 2.5 3.0 8.3 7.3 8.2 7.0 9.8 10.0 10.3 7.4 8.0 7.2 5.2 3.5 9.8 10.1 10.9 7.7 7.6 7.1 4.8 3.0 6.9 8.1 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.9 9.6 9.4 11.2 Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 5.0 3.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars and beginning 1973 for deflators and 1972 dollars. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cc st and profit per unit of output (dolla rs) 1 Gross ( omestic product of lonfinaneial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current dollars 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: 1981: 1982: 1972 dollars 563.7 609.9 678.0 759.4 599.6 626.8 678.0 818.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,537.7 1.732.3 731.9 876.1 860.3 881.3 Total cost and profit 2 0.940 .973 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1,418 1.508 1.617 1.787 1.966 1.811 1,852 1.906 1.940 1.987 HI IV 1,543.6 1,606.5 852.5 867.4 n m I IV 1,683.3 1,715.0 1,763.6 1,767.2 883.0 884.2 887.5 870.4 2.030 I 1,756.6 858.8 2.045 1 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 0.087 .091 .092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .200 .222 .206 .208 .211 .218 .224 .236 .242 Indirect business taxes 3 0.106 .113 .113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .173 .202 .178 .186 .196 .202 .203 .208 .205 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Compensation of employees 0.631 .641 .659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.211 1.305 1.224 1.245 1.267 1.289 1.315 1.349 1.376 Corporate profits with inventory valuation £md capital cc nsumption adjustments Net interest Total 0.028 .029 .028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .061 .071 .061 .066 .062 .069 .074 .078 .082 0.088 .099 .107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .143 .165 .143 .147 .170 .161 .171 .159 .140 Profits tax liability 0.045 .047 .049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .075 .072 .075 .078 .081 .069 .074 .063 .045 Profits 0.043 .052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .068 .093 .068 .069 .089 .091 .097 .096 .095 Output of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.880 4.498 4.788 5.068 5.458 5.989 6.596 8.131 8.315 7.138 7.716 7.126 7.466 7.688 7.891 7.621 8.396 8.377 8.411 9.198 8.385 8.536 10.153 11.139 8.414 10.296 10.529 8.460 8.557 *" 10.841 11.027 8.553 8.556 11.251 11.473 8.503 8.570 11.791 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Compensation of employeesl National income Proprietors' income with inventory v iluation and capital co nsumption adjust ments Nonfarm Farm 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: 1981: 1982: -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -17.8 -16.8 177.8 181.2 197.0 200.4 238.1 245.9 -41.1 -45.5 -19.3 -19.2 190.4 203.0 34.4 34.0 33.6 33.6 200.3 185.1 193.1 183.9 217.6 202.6 210.3 199.4 253.1 225.4 233.3 216.5 -35.5 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 -17.3 -17.5 -17.1 -15.5 217.6 231.6 244.0 249.5 33.9 34.2 157.1 167.2 171.6 -4.4 -6.3 -10.1 -5.9 258.7 267.3 21.6 22.5 27.1 24.6 101.8 101.2 100.4 99.5 1,830.8 1,849.9 17.8 15.3 98.6 100.0 I IV 2,293.7 2,324.4 2,387.3 2,404.5 I 2,396.9 'Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) 2.7 2.7 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 1,718.0 1,750.0 1,789.1 1,813.4 n m -4.6 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 199.4 207.5 33.8 34.2 1,604.9 1,662.8 adjustment 46.5 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 187.7 235.7 95.1 98.8 2,122.3 2,199.2 Inventory valuation adjustment Net interest 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 20.3 19.2 m IV 54.4 58.1 61.0 62.2 Profits Total 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 15.0 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 Capital consump- Total 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 181.6 190.6 652.2 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,598.6 1,767.6 " Profits v, ith inventory valuation adjustme nt and withou t capital consiimption adjust ment 20.2 21.0 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 871.5 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,117.1 2,352.5 n Corporate profits with inv sntory valuatio n and capital consumption adjustments Eental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 83.2 82.0 94.0 105.6 1.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods * Motor vehicles and parts Nondura jle goods Furniture and household equipment 672.2 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,667.2 1,843.2 97.2 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.3 234.6 45.4 52.4 57.1 37.2 41.7 47.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 89.7 98.6 m IV 1,682.0 1,745.8 212.7 224.7 n in I IV 1,799.9 1,819.4 1,868.8 1,884.5 1982: I IP 1,919.4 1,950.8 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: 1981: 1 Total includes oth NOTE.—Series rev'n ms not shown separately, inning 1977. Total nondurable goods 1 Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Retail sal es of new passeng er cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 343.7 375.3 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.7 114.6 23.9 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 87.0 96.8 296.2 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 782.5 874.1 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 673.7 700.5 346.4 358.0 104.8 108.9 87.0 92.8 795.6 820.6 6.4 6.7 2.3 2.5 93.1 93.3 93.8 93.3 720.6 729.6 741.3 746.5 368.8 372.1 378.0 382.3 112.3 114.0 115.9 116.0 95.2 96.7 97.7 97.5 842.4 859.4 886.3 908.3 7.2 5.7 6.8 5.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 91.0 93.6 749.1 756.5 387.9 396.4 117.5 119.5 95.3 90.5 932.4 951.6 5.8 5.5 2.2 2.0 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.4 278.8 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 670.4 734.5 88.1 93.7 86.0 90.4 236.9 230.4 241.2 229.6 102.1 94.2 104.0 93.9 237.9 242.6 103.2 105.0 144.2 154.9 172.1 193.7 50.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 8.7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $8.7 billion (annual rate) in June following a rise of $18.4 billion in May. Wages and salaries rose $2.1 billion in June, compared with an increase of $12.9 billion in May. Personal interest income rose $3.8 billion in June and transfer payments $0.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 160 160 120 120 . I.ii 1976 1978 1977 1979 1980 1981 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietor ' income 3 Period Total personal income salary Farm Nonfarm Rental income of4 persons Personal dividend income 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.1 1,493.9 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 127.2 140.4 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 19.4 24.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 96.9 100.7 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 32.9 33.9 29.1 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 55.9 62.5 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2,398.4 2,436.3 2,459.6 2,478.6 2,487.2 2,499.0 2,497.6 1,489.6 1,501.3 1,513.6 1,522.1 1,528.9 1,534.2 1,530.5 139.4 140.9 142.2 143.5 144.7 145.8 146.9 23.2 26.1 28.2 27.2 26.3 24.7 22.8 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.3 99.0 100.1 99.5 33.6 33.4 33.4 33.9 33.6 33.6 33.6 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May" June p. 2,499.1 2,513.8 2,518.6 2,534.3 2,552.7 2,561.4 1,535.7 1,546.6 1,542.6 1,546.6 1,559.5 1,561.6 148.0 149.1 150.2 151.3 152.5 153.6 19.9 17.3 16.3 15.7 15.2 15.0 98.6 98.4 98.8 99.3 99.9 100.8 33.7 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Personal interest income Transfer pay- ments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 141.2 178.3 47.9 50.4 152.8 179.4 218.7 263.4 329.0 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.2 336.3 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.9 1,131,8 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,117.3 2,364.1 62.4 63.6 64.2 64.7 65.0 65.2 65.4 325.2 332.1 340.0 346.9 349.7 351.1 352.1 329.2 344.1 343.9 346.5 347.1 351.5 353.6 104.6 105.6 106.2 106.3 107.0 107.2 106.8 2,347.6 2,382.2 2,403.0 2,422.7 2,431.8 2,444.6 2,444.6 65.6 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.2 66.1 355.5 359.8 363.8 368.0 371.8 375.6 352.4 353.8 357.5 363.9 365.1 365.9 110.3 110.9 110.6 110.8 111.7 111.5 2,448.6 2,465.5 2,470.8 2,486.6 2,505.1 2,513.4 112.4 123.2 132.5 5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. G Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor and agricultural net interest. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 800 800 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 11,000 10,000 11,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personall outlays Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal incc me Current dollars 1972 dollars 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,160.4 2,415.8 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.3 386.7 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,824.1 2,029.1 Current dollars 1972 dollars Do lars Billions of dol ars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Per capitat personal consuroption expen litures 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,717.9 1,898.9 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 106.2 130.2 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,012 8,827 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,472 4,538 Percent change in real per capita disposable Saving as percent of disposable personal Population (thou-2 sands) Per cent 3,831 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,323 8,018 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,087 4,123 5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.9 1.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 6.4 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,654 229,872 Seas jnally adju sted annual rates 1980: HI IV 2,185.3 2,260.0 339.7 357.1 1,845.5 1,902.9 1,732.5 1,797.6 113.1 105.3 8,095 8,325 4,466 4,487 7,378 7,638 4,071 4,117 3.9 1.9 6.1 5.5 227,978 228,579 1981: I 2,330.0 2,380.6 2,458.2 2,494.6 371.2 384.2 398.1 393.2 1,958.7 1,996.5 2,060.0 2,101.4 1,852.8 1,874.5 1,925.7 1,942.7 105.9 122.0 134.4 158.6 8,551 8,698 8,951 9,107 4,519 4,516 4,557 4,559 7,858 7,926 8,120 8,167 4,152 4,115 4,134 4,088 2.9 -.3 3.7 .2 5.4 6.1 6.5 7.5 229,053 229,539 230,145 230,751 2,510.5 2,549.5 393.4 397.5 2,117.1 2,151.9 1,977.9 2,009.9 139.1 9,155 9,287 4,527 4,553 8,300 8,419 4,104 4,127 -2.8 2.3 6.6 6.6 231,246 231,715 n m IV 1982: I p n 142.0 'Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners {net}. 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. NOTE,—Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars and beginning 1973 for deflators and 1972 dollars. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1981, gross and net farm income each declined $2.7 billion (annual rate) from their third quarter levels. Data are not yet available for 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) I 200 200 I 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 NET FARM INCOME „ t- v 20 J I 1973 J L 1974 1975 L I I I 1980 1978 1976 20 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVfSERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farmi ng Net farn income (iross farm incom 3 Cas h marketing rece pts Total ' 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: I n m IV 1981: I n m IV Total Livestock and products 98.0 101.0 101.9 108.6 127.3 151.3 150.6 166.8 92.4 88.9 95.4 96.2 112.5 131.7 139.5 143.5 41.3 43.1 46.3 47.6 148.6 145.2 153.2 155.4 161.8 164.7 171.5 168.8 V f inventory changes 2 Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 72.0 75.8 83.3 90.2 26.0 25.2 18.7 18.4 58.8 68.6 67.8 68.5 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.1 71.7 75.0 1.6 3.4 2.4 1.0 1.1 5.6 4.3 5.5 100.6 119.0 130.5 141.6 26.7 32.4 20.1 25.1 135.3 134.3 143.6 144.8 66.7 64.4 69.3 70.8 68.6 69.9 74.3 74.0 -1.4 4.2 -6.0 -5.6 125.7 128.7 132.0 135.4 22.9 16.5 21.2 20.0 9.5 6.8 8.5 7.8 142.5 142.3 146.7 142.5 67.9 69.4 71.0 65.7 74.6 72.9 75.7 76.8 2.5 5.3 7.2 7.0 139.0 141.0 143.2 143.2 22.8 23.7 28.3 25.6 8.6 8.8 10.2 9.1 'Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops Production expenses 51.1 45.8 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1970. Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. 17.6 15.6 11.0 10.2 13.6 14.9 8.2 9.2 CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1982 corporate profits before tax fell $44.9 billion (annual rate) while after-tax profits declined $29.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 280 280 240 120 80 40 40 1974 1975 1981 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1982 COUNCSL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pr ofits {before t&x) with inve ntory valuation adjustmen t > Profits after ta X Doinestic industi•ies Period Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 82.2 87.8 155.9 158.1 58.7 59.6 97.3 98.5 -41.1 -45.5 161.6 146.2 150.8 144.9 61.5 64.0 66.8 68.1 100.1 82.2 84.0 76.9 ~35.5 216.5 91.5 79.2 82.4 71.6 171.6 55.8 115.9 68.8 69.3 47.0 -4.4 6.3 167.0 159.0 168.5 153.3 90.3 88.9 92.2 73.7 33.0 32.1 33.0 35.7 253.1 210.3 199.4 26.8 22.7 20.8 20.4 167.2 150.3 20.0 130.4 57.7 31.9 202.6 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption s Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Inventory valuation adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -43.0 -24.6 193.8 181.7 189.3 173.7 217.6 Undistributed profits 26.1 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 99.7 85.8 238.1 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 24.6 33.4 Dividends 22.9 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.1 65.1 24.4 27.3 60.8 70.0 76.0 Total 49.0 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 157.8 150.9 70.0 78.1 74.9 Tax liability 37.5 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.7 81.2 140.3 146.1 197.0 11.7 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 27.2 29.4 1981: I 1 34.1 40.7 167.5 175.5 207.5 200.4 3 sale and retail trade 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 74.5 86.3 1980: HI IV 2 Manufacturing 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 140.0 162.0 199.4 1982: I II" Total 3 14.1 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 29.2 22.7 209.6 IV Financial 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 169.1 184.6 82.0 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 n m Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 242.4 232.1 245.9 225.4 233.3 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -4.6 -22.8 -23.0 -17.1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment declined $3.0 billion (annual rate) from its first quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $1.3 billion. There was a $19.7 billion decrease in inventories following a $35.6 billion decrease in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 550 550 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 500 450 450 PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 400 400 350 350 300 300 NONRESIDENTIAL -FIXED INVESTMENT- 250 250 200 200 RESIDENTIAL -FIXED INVESTMENT- 150 150 100 100 ^CHANGE IN BUSINESS_ INVENTORIES 50 , 50 ••'«»"*..'••, ,.-- 0 ,,,.i""'», x 0 *'*.rt,...» -50 -50 1974 1976 1975 1978 1977 1979 1982 1981 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 private domestic investment Total 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 402.3 471.5 107.9 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 309.2 346.1 Structures Producers' durable Total 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.5 129.7 67.4 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 198.6 216.4 50.9 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 103.2 104.9 40.5 44.1 Change ir business mven tories Residential fix ed investment Nonresk ential fixed in vestment Period Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers' durable equipment Total 7.7 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.3 99.7 -.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 -10.0 20.5 -21.2 -17.7 48.9 61.5 65.6 0.7 Nonfarm 6.4 9.6 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 57 15.0 1980: HI IV 384.1 410.3 307.8 317.5 109.5 112.6 198.2 204.9 97.6 110.5 93.5 105.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.1 1981: I II Ill IV 455.7 475.5 486.0 468.9 330.0 341.3 353.0 360.2 119.6 127.0 132.7 139.6 210.4 214.3 220.2 220.6 113.6 109.5 101.2 95.5 109.1 104.7 95.6 89.4 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 12.2 24.6 31.8 13.2 10.0 19.3 24.6 I II" 414.8 429.1 357.0 354.0 141.4 143.2 215.6 210.8 93.4 94.7 87.9 88.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 -35.6 -19.7 36.0 -19.2 1982: NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -15.4 -12.3 6.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 2.2 percent above 1981. Spending in 1981 was 8.7 percent above 1980. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {RATIO SCALE) 500 500 400 400 300 200 40 40 30 30 1974 V 1975 1976 1982 1981 1979 1978 SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly date at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equip ment Period Total Plant a anufacturin g Equip- ment Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Mining 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 4 156.98 157.71 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 328.60 64.29 65.21 71.20 80.31 92.70 105.73 117.55 133.46 92.69 92.50 100.25 117.77 138.54 164.73 178.08 188.04 53.21 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 127.29 27.44 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 61.17 25.76 28.59 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 66.12 103.78 102.79 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 201.31 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 17.24 1981: I II HI IV 312.24 316.73 328.25 327.83 128.57 131.05 136.40 136.67 183.67 185.68 191.85 191.17 124.50 125.49 130.11 126.91 61.24 63.10 62.58 60.78 63.27 62.40 67.53 66.14 187.74 191.24 198.13 200.92 1982: 327.72 323.75 328.04 334.78 139.49 188.23 128.32 125.69 128.55 127.01 60.84 60.67 61.44 61.82 67.48 65.02 67.11 65.19 199.40 198.07 199.48 207.78 I II 4 III 4 IV4 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, Fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 Starts of plant and Nonmanu facturing Transportation Public utilities and services l nication and other 2 manufac- 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 12.57 19.83 19.98 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 39.55 47.79 46.23 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 88.79 23.30 21.80 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 43.15 61.24 56.51 59.38 77.40 88.16 112.98 123.32 135.19 16.20 16.80 17.55 16.81 11.74 11.70 11.61 13.12 36.05 37.84 39.55 39.74 83.43 85.88 87.55 88.33 40.32 39.02 41.89 42.92 35.41 32.90 33.33 33.68 17.60 16.33 16.71 18.29 11.99 12.01 12.97 13.34 40.12 40.04 38.25 40.05 87.80 87.62 88.07 91.16 41.89 42.08 43.48 44.94 27.73 4.62 6.10 8.23 8.68 8.89 9.40 3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period, 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in !ate April and May 1982, corrected for biases. _, _ , _, _ ,_ . , , . source: Department of Commerce, nureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment fell 353,000 in June and unemployment fell 122,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 112 112 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 108 108 104 104 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE ......•••"V--.......,, 100 100 96 96 , 92 88 EMPLOYMENT 92 88 „....„......•-••-.„, 84 84 80 80 1974 1982 * ] 6 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Unemp oyment Civilian e mployment employment tional population Period 158,294 161,166 164,027 166,951 169,848 172,272 1976 1977 1978* 1979 1980 1981 88,752 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 Unemployment 7,406 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 Total labor force (including Armed Forces) Civilian labor force 98,302 101,142 104,368 107,050 109,042 110,812 96,158 99,009 102,251 104,962 106,940 108,670 Nonagr Total Part-time AgriculTotal 88,752 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 Cnadjusted 3,331 3,283 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 Total 15 weeks participation rate (percent) 2 economic reasons 1 85,421 88,734 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 3,334 3,369 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 7,406 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 2,366 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 62.1 62.8 63.6 64.1 64.2 64.3 Seas onally adjus ted 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 172,172 172,385 172,559 172,758 172,966 173,155 173,330 101,419 102,612 102,152 100,389 101,028 100,502 99,562 8,485 8,130 7,947 7,884 8,216 8,676 9,013 110,565 110,827 110,978 110,659 111,170 111,430 111,348 108,434 108,688 108,818 108,494 109,012 109,272 109,184 100,430 100,864 100,840 100,258 100,343 100,172 99,613 3,348 3,342 3,404 3,358 3,378 3,372 3,209 97,082 97,522 97,436 96,900 96,965 96,800 96,404 4,033 4,374 4,350 4,656 5,009 5,026 5,288 8,004 7,824 7,978 8,236 8,669 9,100 9,571 2,363 2,170 2,217 2,248 2,292 2,364 2,372 64.2 64.3 64.3 64.1 64.3 64.4 64.2 1982: 173,495 173,657 173,843 174,020 174,201 174,364 97,831 97,946 98,471 98,858 99,957 100,683 10,183 10,378 10,290 9,957 9,957 10,886 111,038 111,333 111,521 111,824 112,841 112,364 108,879 109,165 109,346 109,648 110,666 110,191 99,581 99,590 99,492 99,340 100,117 99,764 3,411 3,373 3,349 3,309 3,488 3,357 96,170 96,217 96,144 96,032 96,629 96,406 5,071 5,563 5,717 5,834 5,763 5,444 9,298 9,575 9,854 10,307 10,549 10,427 2,399 2,724 2,954 3,015 3,286 3,673 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.8 64.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. 96-956 O - 82 - 2 * Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In June the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at the May rate, 9.5 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 1* ,' 1 20 «• » / ^-/*\ / » ' 1* Y*iJ ,' t\ /». v "\J\ \* TEENAGERS (16-19) 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER y N—'X. ""%«, ^S$ ,.....,„.,..-•-•' \ MEN 20 YEARS Ah4D OVER 1 1111111111 i iiii Iil il1 ill 1979 1978 1982 S J^~ ^"*'*i ••-../NX ii ii 1981 1980 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR ii ii 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] TJnemployment rate (p< rcent of civi lan labor for *e in group) By race B y sex and ag e Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Full-time workers Part-time workers Labor force time lost (percent) l 5.9 5.2 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 19.0 7.0 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 13.1 13.1 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 4.2 10.1 3.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 9.4 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 10.1 17.8 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 9.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 8.8 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.9 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 19.2 18.7 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.4 21.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.4 7.7 14.2 13.8 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.2 15.7 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.5 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 10.7 11.2 10.1 10.7 10.6 10.8 10.5 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.7 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.5 10.2 9.2 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.7 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.1 21.7 22.3 21.9 23.0 23.1 22.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.4 15.1 15.9 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.1 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 10.4 10.2 10.6 11.5 11.8 12.4 8.4 8.5 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.6 10.8 10.0 10.9 10.5 9.8 10.0 9.8 10.4 10.4 11.1 10.2 1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 % selected gro jps Experienced wage and salary workers 7.1 6.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 7.7 Aug 1982: Total (all civilian workers) Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In June, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks fell again, and the percentage out of work for 15 weeks and longer periods rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS - 50 - 40 - REENTRANTS 30 - V-. 20 20 JOB LEAVERS •K'VW fi l*v»>"'*1**""'* ' ;v»i^r-*>»««' 10 10 - - I m+£#£* \ NEW ENTRANTS 1982 1978 1978 1979 1981 1980 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period TJnem , (thousands) Percent listribution of unemplo >rnent by dura ion 1 Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over yment by Percent distribution of unemplo rea on l Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Sta te prop-ams Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 Wee kly average , thousands 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 41.8 46.2 48.1 43.1 41.7 30.5 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 13.1 12.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 14.7 10.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 45.3 41.7 42.9 51.7 51.6 13.0 14.1 14.3 11.7 11.2 28.1 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 13.6 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 2,655 2,359 2,434 3,350 3,048 375 346 388 488 460 3,308 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 1981: June.... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 8,004 7,824 7,978 8,236 8,669 9,100 9,571 40.8 42.6 41.5 42.2 42.7 42.3 42.8 30.0 29.6 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.7 32.0 15.2 14.0 13.5 13.7 13.4 13.5 12.6 14.0 13.8 14.2 13.2 13.0 12.5 12.6 51.6 49.5 51.4 52.8 52.4 53.6 56.1 11.1 11.9 11.0 11.0 11.2 10.0 9.7 25.2 26.6 25.5 24.6 25.0 25.5 23.5 12.0 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.5 10.9 10.7 2,897 2,767 2,844 2,961 3,159 3,428 3,583 407 397 435 482 522 541 567 2,949 3,012 2,874 2,680 2,753 3,228 3,935 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... 9,298 9,575 9,854 10,307 10,549 10,427 41.3 39.6 38.8 38.5 37.0 33.2 32.9 31.9 31,2 32.1 31.7 32.4 13.0 15.1 16.3 14.7 15.6 17.1 12.8 13.4 13.7 14.7 15.8 17.3 56.7 54.3 57.4 57.4 56.9 59.6 9.1 10.2 9.0 9.1 8.4 7.7 22.7 24.0 22.9 23.0 23.5 22.4 11.5 11.6 10.7 10.5 11.1 10.3 3,546 3,484 3,736 4,022 4,032 4,140 562 517 594 579 595 555 4,681 4,723 4,892 4,760 4,388 1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 3 572 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT In June, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey declined 141,000 from its May level. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS' (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 90 20 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 ...--' 70 GOVERNMENT ' 60 SERVICE-PRODUCING SERVICE-PI INDUSTRIES 22 MANUFACTURING 50 20 40 - CONSTRUCTION _GOODS-PRODUC1NG .INDUSTRIES •••-o 20 1979 1980 1981 1978 1982 1979 1980 1981 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted] Service-p roducing ind Goods- >roducing inc ustries Total nonagri- M anufacturing Period employment Total 2 Construction 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 82,471 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,105 24,346 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,481 3,851 4,229 4,463 4,346 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 91,286 91,396 91,322 91,363 91,224 90,996 90,642 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May ".... June p ... 90,460 90,459 90,304 90,083 90,151 90,010 Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Wholesale and retail trade Goveroment Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal 4,467 4,724 4,975 5,157 18,516 19,542 20,192 20,310 20,551 5,160 5,301 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,592 65,630 65,678 65,685 65,780 65,831 65,820 65,734 5,162 5,168 5,168 5,181 5,162 5,150 5,128 20,590 20,620 20,650 20,660 20,654 20,623 20,524 5,302 5,311 5,319 5,328 5,325 5,324 5,331 65,776 65,828 65,854 65,794 65,889 65,957 5,125 5,115 5,100 5,094 5,101 5,076 20,630 20,670 20,655 20,584 20,658 20,643 5,326 5,326 5,336 5,335 5,340 5,349 11,597 12,274 12,760 12,187 12,117 8,086 8,231 8,280 8,098 8,056 58,125 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,625 4,713 4,923 5,136 5,146 4,176 19,682 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,173 25,656 25,718 25,637 25,583 25,393 25,176 24,908 4,185 4,175 4,146 4,124 4,101 4,071 4,026 20,334 20,379 20,311 20,267 20,097 19,903 19,676 12,246 12,266 12,228 12,184 12,059 11,901 11,724 8,088 8,113 8,083 8,083 8,038 8,002 7,952 24,684 24,631 24,450 24,289 24,262 24,053 3,966 3,974 3,934 3,938 3,994 3,952 19,517 19,454 19,319 19,169 19,114 18,971 11,622 11,575 11,490 11,375 11,337 11,254 7,895 7,879 7,829 7,794 7,777 7,717 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultura! employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 Total Transportation and public utilities istries 15,303 2,727 2,753 2,773 State and local 12,399 2,866 2,772 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,253 18,556 18,615 18,654 18,707 18,773 18,815 18,834 2,777 2,775 2,769 2,764 2,757 2,749 2,756 13,243 13,189 13,125 13,140 13,160 13,159 13,161 18,831 18,867 18,904 18,929 18,948 18,972 2,741 2,737 2,736 2,730 2,734 2,724 13,123 13,113 13,123 13,122 13,108 13,193 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average giross hourly earn mgs Average weekly hours Period Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural * Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Total 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 35.2 35.3 35.2 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.0 40.1 40.0 39.9 39.4 39.5 39.3 39.1 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 1982: 34.4 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.8 37.6 39.4 39.0 39.0 39.1 39.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 36.9 36.5 1973 1974 1975 1976 Jan Feb Mar Apr May p June*1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 Manufacturing Adjust* d hourly earnings index — total private nonagric ultural 2 Percent chang e from a year earli , r 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 = 100 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 $3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 $4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 74.1 80.0 86.7 92.9 100.0 7.23 7.27 7.34 7.37 7.40 7.45 7.46 7.52 7.53 7.54 7.59 7.65 7.66 Current dollars 1977 dollars 108.1 116.8 127.3 138.9 98.3 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.1 -0.1 2.8 — .7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 7.99 8.03 8.09 8.14 8.16 8.20 8.20 138.4 139.1 140.5 141.4 142.0 143.0 143.5 92.9 92.2 92.5 92.1 92.1 92.3 92.3 8.9 8.8 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.4 8.2 -.6 -1.7 — 1.4 — 1.4 -1.4 -.9 -.4 8.38 8.34 8.37 8.44 8.48 8.53 144.9 145.0 145.4 146.3 147.6 147.9 92.9 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.7 92.9 8.3 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.3 6.9 .1 .1 101.1 6.2 8.0 8.4 .6 .8 .8 .0 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent el ange from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Average gross weekly eg rmngs Period Total private nonagric ultural Current dollars Manufacturing I 1977 dollars 3 Construction Wholesale and retail trade $145.39 154.76 163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 $198.35 190.12 184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 $166.46 176.80 190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 $235.89 249.25 266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 398.52 $111.76 119.02 126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.95 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 254.50 256.63 258.37 257.95 259.74 261.50 261.10 170.92 170.18 170.09 168.05 168.44 168.82 167.91 320.40 321.20 322.79 320.72 322.32 322.26 320.62 391.65 400.34 401.12 386.54 407.01 416.64 415.14 189.71 191.27 192.56 193.56 192.96 194.53 194.56 1982: 258.69 263.55 263.15 264.89 266.99 266.57 165.93 168.62 168.90 169.69 169.41 167.44 315.09 328.60 326.43 329.16 331.57 333.52 405.50 420.71 420.29 421.77 432.00 422.78 193.05 195.20 195.23 195.89 198.40 198.10 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Jan Feb Mar Apr May" June p 1 4 2 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 t Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 19783 Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 9.2 10.0 9.6 8.4 7.9 7.3 6.1 3.7 6.2 4.8 4.5 5.2 4.6 0.0 -4.1 3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -.3 -.7 1.1 -2.2 2.0 -1.8 -2.4 4.1 -1.1 1.6 -1.7 -1.2 -2.1 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector per Compens ation hoi r 3 Output per hour of all pers ons Hours of all perseHIS 2 Out]nit ' Honfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implic t price 4 defla tor Unit .abor CO st Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector ] 977 = 100; quarterly ( ata seasonsilly adjuste< 1968 1969 76.8 79.0 76.6 78.8 90.1 92.5 88.2 91.1 85.3 85.5 86.8 86.5 50.7 54.2 51.5 54.8 59.4 63.4 59.3 63.4 60.2 63.2 60.4 63.3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.8 90.1 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 90.0 90.9 90.5 93.1 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.9 92.6 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.4 93.1 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.4 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.2 84.2 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.2 84.3 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.2 82.2 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 88.4 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 88.0 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.2 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 108.7 94.7 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.6 94.9 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.3 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 119.1 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.8 90.3 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.6 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.6 90.2 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 89.8 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 106.2 108.9 106.3 108.6 107.4 108.2 108.0 108.7 98.9 100.7 98.5 99.9 131.4 144.1 130.9 143.6 132.9 143.1 133.0 143.8 128.3 140.4 128.3 140.8 m IV 105.3 107.0 105.3 107.3 106.5 107.7 107.0 108.2 98.9 99.3 98.4 99.2 133.1 136.1 132.6 135.7 134.7 137.0 134.7 136.8 129.9 132.8 129.9 132.7 n m I IV 109.1 109.1 109.6 107.8 109.2 109.0 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.3 108.5 107.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 108.1 100.7 100.7 101.0 100.2 100.4 100.0 100.0 99.1 140.0 142.5 145.6 148.2 139.5 142.0 145.1 147.7 139.0 141.5 144.2 147.9 139.0 141.9 145.1 149.0 136.5 138.8 141.9 144.6 136.5 138.9 142.3 145.5 I H" 106.3 106.7 106.0 106.4 105.8 105.5 106.3 106.1 100.5 101.2 99.7 100.3 151.7 154.3 151.3 153.5 151.0 152.5 151.7 153.1 146.0 147.8 146.6 148.4 1980: 1981: 1982: • • Percent ch ange; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted armual rates 1968 1969 5.1 2.9 5.3 2.9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 -.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -1.9 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.9 1.9 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 • -1.9 6.1 6.6 5.5 2.3 1980 1981 1980: 1981: I n m IV...., 1982: I IP -1.7 2.0 3.2 3.3 .2 3.3 -.3 7.8 7.0 7.5 6.5 4.4 6.7 4.1 6.8 4.0 4.9 4.0 4.7 1.3 .3 3.3 3.7 2.5 -2.4 7.4 6.5 6.6 8.0 9.3 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 6.5 2.9 2.9 5.2 11.9 6.6 3.2 2.9 4.9 12.1 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.4 9.4 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.7 10.1 .5 2.9 3.9 .5 -.4 3.1 4.3 .5 .9 3.5 3.6 2.6 -2.3 -2.2 6.5 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.2 —4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.5 2.3 3.1 2.4 .6 .9 2.0 3.0 2.2 .6 1.3 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.7 9.6 8.2 7.5 8.6 9.3 7.2 5.3 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.4 5.0 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.7 5.0 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.3 5.7 7.1 8.8 2.5 -1.5 2.2 -.7 .7 .7 .7 -.7 1.8 -.9 1.4 10.4 9.6 10.2 9.7 11.2 7.7 11.2 8.1 9.4 9.5 10.2 9.7 2.1 6.8 2.7 7.8 .5 4.7 7 4.6 2.6 2.0 3.4 3.1 10.1 9.4 10.4 9.8 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.5 10.0 9.3 8.6 8.9 7.9 — .1 1.9 -6.4 7.2 -.8 .3 -7.1 2.1 -3.6 2.2 .5 .6 3.7 5.6 .0 1.1 2.9 4.9 -1.3 -.3 -3.5 11.7 7.5 9.0 7.4 11.8 7.1 9.0 7.3 5.7 7.5 7.8 10.6 6.6 8.6 9.3 11.2 11.6 6.6 9.3 8.0 12.1 7.1 10.2 9.2 -5.5 1.7 -4.2 1.8 -6.3 -1.1 6.6 -.4 .8 2.9 2.6 2.3 9.6 7.1 10.1 6.2 8.6 4.1 7.4 3.8 3.8 5.2 3.3 5.0 | K El IV 1.7 2.6 1 .8 'Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged m the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Series revised beginning 1977 based on revised national income and product accounts and for earlier periods based on revised measures of labor input. The word "private" will no longer be used as part of the series title of the business sector measures prepared by the BLS. No change has been made in the defintion or content of the measures affected by this change in nomeclature. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 0.7 percent in June following declines of 0.6 percent in May and 1.1 percent in April. The index for June was 9.5 percent below the year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100 180 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 160 (RATIO SCALE! UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 UTILITIES 140 MINING 120 120 1 I H 1 M 1978 1980 1979 1981 1982 1 I I I rt 1978 100 180 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1980 1981 1982 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) NONDURABLE 100 > ^T^~>"""'"[" \ 160 1979 ^"1""""""^\ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 140 80 120 70 1978 1979 1982 1980 1982 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] To tal indu itrial prodn ction Index, 1967=100 1967 proportion 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May " June" 1 2 3 100.00 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 152.9 153.9 153.6 151.6 149.1 146.3 143.4 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.4 138.4 1tanufacturui Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 8.1 9.7 8.0 5.0 1.7 -1.9 -4.7 -7.1 -5.9 -6.8 7.7 -8.7 9.5 Mining Total 87.95 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 152.4 153.2 153.2 151.1 148.0 145.0 142.0 138.5 140.9 140.1 138.7 138.2 137.3 Durable Utilities Nondurable 51.98 35.97 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 143.2 143.6 143.4 140.9 137.8 134.4 131.3 127.1 129.3 128.2 126.6 126.4 125.3 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 165.8 167.1 167.3 165.9 162.8 160.3 157.4 155.1 157.8 157.3 156.2 155.3 154.6 Output as percent of capacity. Annual A data are averages of four monthly indexes. Q Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Cap aeity utilizati on rate, perc ent 1 Industry prot uction indexes , 1967=100 6.36 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 141.7 146.5 146.0 145.0 145.3 143.3 142.6 144.5 142.4 138.1 133.6 130.2 126.7 Materials (Federal Reserve series) Federal Reserve series Commerce series 2 Wharton series 3 5.69 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 172.7 173.1 171.9 167.8 168.1 168.9 168.2 171.8 170.4 170.0 171.0 169.9 168.0 73.4 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.4 80.0 79.9 81.3 81.9 81.6 80.0 77.7 75.5 72.4 71.4 72.9 71.8 70.4 69.6 69.0 72.9 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 79.1 78.5 79.6 79.8 79.6 78.3 76.6 ' 74.8 73.1 71.1 72.2 71.6 70.7 70.4 69.8 77 78.8 81 83 84 83 78 76 78 84.8 87.3 89.9 91.5 85.5 76 86.2 86.3 72 72 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Intermedia te products Final Products Period Equip ment C onsumer good s Total Total Durable goods Materials Nondurable goods Total Total Business Construetion supplies Supplementary group: Energy total 1967 proportion 47.83 27.68 7.89 19.79 20.14 12.63 12.89 6.42 39.29 12.23 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 115.7 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 133.8 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 120.6 125.6 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 126.5 137.2 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9. 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 151.4 152.1 151.5 150.0 148.9 147.2 146.3 150.3 150.7 149.6 147.8 146.5 144.0 142.0 147.9 146.5 142.5 140.4 136.3 129.7 123.2 151.2 152.3 152.5 150.8 150.5 149.7 149.5 153.0 154.1 154.0 152.9 152.1 151.5 152.1 183.6 184.8 184.4 182.7 180.5 179.0 179.0 154.9 156.2 156.8 154.6 151.4 148.7 145.9 143.4 144.3 144.0 139.7 135.2 130.1 127.0 154.0 155.3 155.2 152.5 148.5 144.6 139.0 138.0 141.2 140.5 136.8 136.9 137.2 136.7 142.8 144.1 143.3 142.7 142.3 141.3 139.6 141.8 141.5 142.2 143.3 143.4 120.1 125.9 128.1 130.7 133.6 135.9 147.4 148.1 146.8 146.8 147.2 146.4 147.2 147.3 145.9 143.3 140.9 138.3 172.2 171.6 169.0 164.9 160.8 156.4 USA 146.3 145.2 143.5 142.6 141.6 124.2 127.5 125.6 122.9 122.4 121.5 137.2 140.4 138.5 136.1 134.8 133.9 139.5 138.9 137.6 136.9 136.4 135.6 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May" June*1. [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Durable m mufactures Period Total 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May" June" Iron and steel Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 6.57 4.21 5.93 9.15 8.05 9.27 4.50 1.64 3.31 4.72 7.74 8.75 112.1 126.7 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 107.1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 112.1 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 116.0 133.7 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 122.2 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 135.8 148.8 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 112.7 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 143.6 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 116.8 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 107.4 109.4 113.1 108.6 102.3 96.6 89.6 98.5 99.7 105.1 99.2 92.2 87.2 79.2 139.3 140.1 140.0 136.8 133.8 130.2 126.1 174.1 176.7 176.4 173.9 169.7 167.9 167.4 180.1 180.9 182.6 180.0 179.6 175.7 170.7 123.4 119.8 115.4 114.2 110.6 106.1 103.7 137.5 130.5 123.1 120.4 113.8 105.5 100.4 122.5 122.9 119.1 113.2 109.6 104.7 104.8 121.1 122.6 122.6 122.5 117.8 113.8 114.1 143.1 144.4 146.1 145.9 145.6 143.4 145.3 218.4 221.5 219.2 216.3 208.8 204.6 199.8 151.3 151.6 151.9 150.7 151.4 153.0 152.8 89.7 88.5 83.0 76.5 74.0 70.9 79.6 78.5 73.0 65.1 62.6 120.7 121.4 121.1 119.1 117.3 115.0 160.9 160.0 157.3 153.7 151.4 148.4 168.2 172.9 172.6 172.0 170.9 170.1 96.6 102.0 104.4 105.9 110.0 111.4 90.4 98.6 105.6 110.8 119.8 124.0 99.2 104.9 103.5 103.6 108.3 145.6 146.4 145.9 144.2 143.4 142.5 196.7 201.3 200.3 198.5 195.0 151.1 151.7 150.8 149.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Fabricated metal products * ondurable nanufacture s Transp artation equip ment Primary metals NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio n contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Resi iential r Total New housing Total ' and industrial Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I illions of dollars 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 135.9 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 238.2 95.1 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.2 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 27.8 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.4 66.0 79.0 100.0 114.0 121.0 106.0 107.0 40.9 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.1 53.0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 555 592 739 977 1,059 904 906 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1981: May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 240.9 237.5 238.1 235.9 233.5 230.8 230.0 228.8 189.3 185.9 186.9 185.2 182.4 180.0 178.1 176.6 92.2 89.1 87.0 84.1 80.4 78.2 76.2 75.8 69.5 66.8 64.1 60.8 57.1 53.4 50.4 49.4 49.4 50.3 52.0 53.0 53.4 53.2 54.0 53.0 47.6 46.5 47.9 48.2 48.6 48.6 47.9 47.7 51.7 51.7 51.2 50.7 51.1 50.8 51.9 52.2 102 109 99 99 100 101 92 112 1,017 972 882 944 817 891 849 848 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May p June " 225.1 222.6 224.6 226.2 227.7 230.7 175.5 173.0 173.6 175.3 179.2 182.8 73.7 69.2 70.0 72.4 75.6 74.8 51.0 49.2 51.0 49.6 51.0 49.1 53.3 54.1 55.0 54.3 53.9 57.8 48.5 49.8 48.6 48.6 49.7 50.2 49.6 49.6 51.0 50.9 48.5 47.8 115 97 105 88 94 118 675 781 758 688 620 816 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. NOTE.—Series on new construction expenditures revised beginning 1979. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes New private housing units Period Units started, bj type of struetim Total 1974 1,337.7 1,160.4 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 unit 888.1 892.2 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 2-4 units 5 or more units 68.1 64.0 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 381.6 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 Units authorized 1,074.4 939.2 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period 1 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 1,728.5 1,317.2 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 519 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 346 313 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1981: 1982: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1,046 1,040 946 899 854 860 882 705 696 614 623 507 554 550 89 88 76 62 78 81 74 252 256 256 214 269 225 258 986 941 878 835 738 743 797 1,353 1,320 1,233 1,202 1,265 1,067 1,114 417 408 364 335 359 388 456 318 312 308 304 291 282 272 Jan Feb Mar Apr" May * June p 885 945 931 882 1,075 911 592 568 621 566 631 607 70 84 67 64 89 88 223 293 243 252 355 216 803 792 851 879 944 948 1,063 920 926 962 1,107 399 376 380 341 399 343 275 274 269 264 259 255 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series begins ing 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 ait-issuing places; data for Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade Business sales rose 2% percent in May while inventories declined $4% million. According to the advance survey, retail sales fell }l/2 percent in June following a rise of 2% percent in May. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 130 550 •* i '•« _^""1 •** " TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES bOO V,-X— 450 120 110 ^^^0 100 400 350 90 300 „<•250 ^ # ^ ^ - /\ ^~ \ RETAIl SALES 70 TOTAL BlJSINESS SAL ES —f - 60 f 50 200 1978 1979 1980 1982 1980 1982 RATIO* - 150 - inn 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 ! 1 I 1 1 I M M 1 1 1 1 1 IM 1 1 1 MI 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 i 1 1980 1979 1978 1981 1.20 1982 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total biisiness 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Who esale Sales Period Sales 2 Inven- Sales 2 Inventory-s ales ratio 4 Re tail InvenTotal 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores 3 Nondurable goods stores Total business 1 Setail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 177,625 182,230 204,277 229,623 259,046 294,573 321,504 350,622 285,807 288,375 318,544 351,175 397,090 444,132 482,571 520,024 47,748 46,623 50,694 55,987 65,036 76,109 87,931 97,839 56,948 56,697 64,078 72,311 83,891 93,870 104,441 111,179 45,082 49,012 54,781 60,435 67,057 74,529 79,325 86,566 14,118 15,247 18,150 20,724 23,313 25,401 24,716 27,216 30,964 33,765 36,631 39,711 43,744 49,128 54,609 59,350 71,067 71,744 79,273 89,530 102,520 109,228 114,114 125,693 32,861 33,356 37,841 43,135 49,914 53,265 53,747 58,835 38,206 38,388 41,432 46,395 52,606 55,963 60,367 66,858 1.45 1.57 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 1981: May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 353,398 356,277 355,070 354,594 353,419 346,619 344,913 341,106 497,736 501,382 504,744 509,959 515,387 518,458 521,645 520,024 98,964 98,027 97,445 97,359 97,440 96,249 96,738 94,920 105,349 106,756 105,768 107,516 108,802 108,708 110,243 111,179 86,361 87,299 87,292 87,961 87,823 86,413 86,733 86,572 27,488 27,725 27,759 28,098 27,810 26,354 26,436 26,206 58,873 59,574 59,533 59,863 60,013 60,059 60,297 60,366 118,191 120,010 121,993 123,341 124,376 125,364 125,618 125,693 55,560 56,764 57,865 58,545 58,761 59,014 58,907 58,835 62,631 63,246 64,128 64,796 65,615 66,350 66,711 66,858 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.37 1.38 1.40 1.40 1.42 1.45 1.45 1.45 1982: 334,710 341,414 342,339 339,385 348,410 516,440 413,797 512,766 514,882 510,636 94,367 95,854 97,580 94,977 97,035 111,154 108,714 109,369 112,722 111,769 85,320 87,418 87,242 88,294 90,682 89,301 25,316 26,696 26,958 27,984 29,267 28,037 60,004 60,722 60,284 60,310 61.415 61,264 124,131 123,395 123,332 123,175 122,418 57,807 56,957 56,803 56,663 55,925 66,324 66,438 66,529 66,512 66,493 1.54 1.50 1.50 1.52 1.47 1.45 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 Jan Feb Mar Apr May* June p 'The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 2 3 20 NOTE.—Total business (and manufacturing) revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In June, manufacturers' new and unfilled orders and inventories fell, while shipments were unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE] 320 280 —INVENTORIES DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 160 120; 100 NONDURABLE GOODS 60 40 RATIO 22 INVENTO RY-SHIPM ENTS RAT 0 2.0 1.8 ^-V. 1.6 »-, , V'-^"^- —s* 1.4 40 1.2 1978 11111 11111 111111 1978 1982 1979 r^ ~^\ hllll 1980 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE M 1981 Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods ADVISERS Ik Manufacturers new orders i Manufa< 3turers' inven tories 2 Durablf goods Total 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Manufa «turers' shipinents l Period 1 1 EI Ei 1 i I Total Total Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 11,011 43,130 173,829 12,799 15,276 19,444 23,203 23,449 24,061 24,039 24,655 24,867 24,312 22,528 24,369 22,130 21,717 21,560 22,174 22,608 20,332 19,274 48,145 53,951 59,254 67,960 76,678 82,743 84,111 84,507 83,979 83,272 82,365 80,868 80,239 79,458 79,676 79,339 78,803 81,081 82,096 182,499 204,880 261,941 303,178 320,977 318,621 327,105 328,861 328,384 327,955 323,556 321,574 318,621 318,114 315,957 315,639 315,218 311,746 307,715 Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 4 M illions of do lars, seasoilally adjust 3d 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June p 1 2 3 86,595 98,802 113,201 126,953 143,935 154,249 166,217 170,951 170,333 169,274 168,156 163,957 161,442 159,614 155,023 158,142 157,517 156,114 160,693 160,799 43,656 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,540 83,417 86,891 85,739 85,223 84,671 81,265 80,279 79,133 75,551 77,976 78,124 77,136 79,383 78,715 42,939 48,113 53,934 59,104 67,875 76,708 82,800 84,060 84,594 84,051 83,485 82,692 81,163 80,481 79,472 80,167 79,394 78,978 81,310 82,084 159,934 175,193 189,334 210,679 241,034 264,016 283,152 274,616 276,983 279,102 282,209 284,386 285,784 283,152 281,155 281,688 280,065 278,985 276,449 275,118 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales, Book value, end of period. End of period. 102,874 112,581 121,737 138,045 160,601 174,674 188,429 181,125 183,229 185,022 187,686 189,461 190,222 188,429 187,054 187,121 186,063 185,916 184,870 184,322 57,060 62,612 67,598 72,634 80,433 89,341 94,723 93,492 93,754 94,080 94,523 94,925 95,561 94,723 94,100 94,567 94,002 93,070 91,579 90,796 85,149 99,543 115,027 131,664 147,354 155,738 166,015 171,022 172,089 168,797 167,728 159,558 159,460 156,660 154,519 155,984 157,198 155,694 157,224 156,760 42,019 51,398 61,076 72,410 79,394 79,060 83,272 86,911 87,582 84,819 84,456 77,193 78,592 76,421 75,061 76,309 77,859 76,891 76,143 74,664 1.84 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.66 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.73 1.77 1.77 1.81 1.78 1.78 1.79 1.72 1.71 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. NOTE.—-Series revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In June, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.5 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods increased 1.4 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.8 percent from their May level. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 320 300 180 160 160 140 140 120 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer g >ods 147.5 163.4 170.6 181.7 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1982: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 270.3 271.3 272.1 272.6 274.2 275.5 276.3 277.8 277.3 276.5 276.7 276.8 279.7 1 166.9 181.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 254.5 256.6 256.8 255.5 255.0 253.2 253.0 255.9 257.1 256.7 260.8 262.7 263.9 139.3 156.2 138.6 153.1 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 273.7 274.3 275.2 276.4 278.6 280.9 281.9 283.0 282.0 281.1 280.1 279.6 283.0 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 277.1 277.4 277.9 279.3 281.4 283.8 284.6 285.6 284.7 283.0 281.1 280.1 283.9 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. NOTE.—Data revised for February 1982. 22 Nondurable Capital equipment 146.8 163.0 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 320.4 321.2 321.5 323.9 325.3 328.0 329.3 331.3 330.6 327.0 324.3 321.8 326.5 141.0 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 264.1 265.6 267.4 267.8 270.5 272.5 274.1 275.4 274.3 275.5 276.5 277.7 279.9 Total Total 1974 1975 1976 1977 Internlediate F nished go ads excluding consumer foo is Durable 125.9 138.2 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 218.9 218.5 219.6 219.5 222.5 224.5 224.7 224.4 223.1 223.9 223.4 224.3 226.9 Total 149.3 163.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 272.0 272.9 273.3 273.9 275.2 276.3 276.9 278.5 278.2 276.8 276.8 276.6 279.7 162.9 180.0 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 306.9 308.1 309.7 309.8 309.7 310.6 311.1 312.0 311.1 310.4 308.5 308.8 309.7 ma terials Foods and feeds > 200.2 195.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 255.1 251.0 251.4 242.5 238.3 233.6 233.2 237.8 238.9 237.5 243.2 247.3 247.0 Cnude maten als Other Total 159.5 178.6 189.4 196.1 196.9 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 336.9 337.6 334.4 328.4 322.7 318.1 313.6 319.3 317.3 314.6 320.2 327.3 327.0 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 310.8 312.3 314.1 314.8 315.1 316.3 316.9 317.6 316.5 315.8 313.3 313.4 314.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 189.4 191.8 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 265.0 264.9 261.9 252.0 246.1 240.8 234.1 244.5 246.1 246.7 255.4 262.2 260.5 208.9 206.9 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 490.8 493.2 489.7 492.2 486.9 483.9 484.6 480.3 470.6 461.0 460.3 468.0 470.7 CONSUMER PRICES In June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted (1.2 percent unadjusted). Food and beverages prices were up 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were up 4.1 percent, unadjusted. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE] 320 320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 ALL ITEMS 180 140 140 120 I I I I LJ-LJJ 1974 1980 1975 1981 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] T ransportatio n Housing Period All items! Food and beverages Total ' NSA Home purchase ing, taxes, and NSA NSA Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars All items less food, Motor fuel 2 Medical care Bner- gy 3 Services and home purchase and NSA Rel. imp.5 100.0 17.5 46.0 4.6 19.3 3.5 6.0 4.9 11.1 43.2 49.8 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 147.7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 158.7 172.1 177.4 188.0 206.3 228.5 248.0 267.3 148.8 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 142.7 160.3 168.4 179.5 196.7 223.1 254.3 267.7 181.1 201.9 212.8 227.2 257.8 308.9 396.0 472.5 136.2 142.3 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 137.7 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 117.5 127.6 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 159.9 170.8 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 150.5 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 159.7 176.6 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 152.1 166.6 180.4 194.3 210.9 234.2 270.3 305.7 138.5 150.5 160.8 170.6 180.9 194.1 211.6 231.6 June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 271.3 274.4 276.5 279.3 279.9 280,7 281.5 266.0 267.7 269.1 270.9 271.5 271.9 272.1 291.6 296.3 299.3 303.2 303.3 304.8 305.9 266.6 271.4 272.6 274.5 272.5 270.2 270.5 467.2 480.0 488.3 501.8 501.8 505.6 506.3 186.1 187.1 188.4 189.0 189.5 189.3 189.4 276.9 279.7 281.4 284.6 288.2 290.8 292.5 192.0 192.8 192.8 193.7 194.0 194.6 196.1 406.5 404.3 404.7 408.3 414.6 418.1 420.3 292.0 295.9 299.4 302.0 305.0 308.3 310.5 414.0 415.7 416.1 417.1 414.9 414.1 414.6 303.3 308.6 312.2 316.9 318.4 321.4 322.9 230.3 232.6 234.4 236.5 238.3 239.8 241.4 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 274.1 275.8 274.9 275.7 277.8 279.6 306.7 307.9 306,9 309.5 313.7 316.8 269.3 270.4 269.2 272.3 279.3 285.6 506.0 507.2 500.9 508.4 516.2 521.8 189.3 190.1 190.9 191.1 191.0 191.2 291.9 289.9 287.1 282.6 283.8 289.7 196.0 194.5 194.6 196.0 196.5 197.9 413.1 403.6 387.6 361.8 365.1 384.7 312.9 315.0 318.1 321.3 324.2 327.1 416.4 413.0 406.1 395.7 402.1 418.6 324.4 325.6 325.7 328.7 331.8 334.5 242.5 243.4 244.6 246.1 247.0 248.7 1981: 1 9.6 12.9 Includes items not shown separately. Ineludes direct pricing of diesel and gasoho! beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 4 Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance. s Relative importance, December 1981. 2 3 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period 1973 1974 1975 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1982: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June 1 22.5 13.0 5.5 -2.5 18.3 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 12.8 11.8 7.1 June July Excluding foods Foods 11.8 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: Consum sr goods Total finished goods 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 Capital equipment Consum 3r goods Total finished goods Foods 7.4 20.5 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 17.5 14.2 8.5 5.3 22.6 8.2 6.4 .8 .6 .7 .1 1.0 .7 .6 7.1 4.7 5.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 .5 5.4 2.6 .3 -1.6 .5 .8 .1 .6 .4 .3 .2 .6 .5 .3 2 -.7 -.1 .5 .1 .2 .5 .8 .9 .3 .5 -.2 -.3 .1 .0 1.0 1.1 .5 -.2 1.6 .7 .5 .4 -.3 -.6 -.7 -.4 1.4 -.5 Percen change fro Ti 6 months earlier; seas onally adjus ted annual r ates Percen t change fro n 3 months earlier; seas onally adjus ted annual r Eites Percen change fro •n preceding period; seasonally adjusted ' Excluding foods Capital equipment Consum sr goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.5 6.3 5.6 1.6 -2.5 5.5 -3.9 5.5 .4 .4 .4 .4 .8 1.4 6.3 6.0 7.9 9.0 11.7 -.7 4.7 7.6 2.8 3.4 3.2 5.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 8.6 8.5 5.7 7.6 7.8 9.7 6.1 1.3 7.4 2.7 2.1 1.6 5.1 6.5 o 9 6.2 -6.3 1.3 11.9 9.2 7.3 5.4 4.3 6.0 5.5 10.8 9.5 9.1 5.3 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.8 5.2 2.6 1.8 -.1 -1.2 4.8 3.9 2.9 1.8 .9 2.5 -.5 .2 .9 4.6 7.6 8.8 6.0 5.0 2.7 -.2 -2.6 -.5 7.5 5.2 5.8 4.5 3.9 4.3 9.9 8.2 7.2 7.8 8.1 8.2 7.7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NoTB.—Based on revised data for February 1982. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted * Tra nsportati m Housing Period All items 2 Food and beverages Total 2 Home purchase NSA 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June ! Financing, taxes, and insurance and upeep 3 24 New cars 10.1 11.6 10.0 10.1 4.3 10.0 4.3 8.4 11.2 15.8 11.4 1.2 14.6 7.6 1.6 11.2 14.7 27.5 23.3 17.9 8.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 13.3 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 11.5 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 .7 1.1 .8 1.1 .4 .5 .4 .2 .6 .5 .7 .2 .1 .1 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.3 .0 .5 .4 1.4 1.8 .4 .7 -.7 .8 .1 1.9 2.7 1.7 2.8 0 .8 .1 .2 .5 .7 .3 .3 -.1 .1 .4 1.0 .6 1.1 1.3 .9 .6 1.1 .4 0 .5 .2 .3 .8 .3 .2 -.3 .2 1.0 1.0 .7 .6 -.3 .3 .8 .6 .3 .4 -.4 .4 -.4 1.2 2.6 2.3 -.1 .2 -1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 -.1 .4 .4 .1 -.1 .1 2 -.7 -1.0 -1.6 .4 2.1 _.! -.8 .1 .7 .3 .7 12.0 6.2 .8 7.6 q .8 1.4 1.0 cal care Ener- gy" Services NSA 13.4 12.2 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 13.3 12.4 8.9 Motor fuel 3 NSA Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted. Includes items not shown separately. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 4 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 5 Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance. 2 Total 2 All items less food, energy, and home purchase and 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 8.8 8.8 10.1 10.0 12.5 37.4 18.1 11.9 11.3 8.1 7.3 7.9 9.3 13.7 14.2 13.0 -.5 .1 .9 1.5 .8 .5 1.0 1.3 1.2 .9 1.0 1.1 .7 .7 .4 .1 .2 -.5 -.2 .1 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.5 .5 .9 .5 .8 1.0 .8 .9 .8 .6 -1.7 -2.3 -4.0 -6.7 .9 5.4 .8 .7 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .4 -.8 .5 .4 .0 .9 .9 .8 .5 20.6 11.0 12.4 2.6 4.9 8.5 10.1 52.2 18.9 9.4 -1.0 9.9 21.6 11.6 6.9 7.2 8.0 -1.7 -2.6 1.6 4.1 11.1 6.3 Adde idum: All item percent change {annual ra te) From From months earlier months earlier 8.1 11.3 11.3 12.8 9.7 8.4 5.4 8.8 9.6 9.3 10.4 10.5 9.8 9.1 4.8 3.7 1.0 .8 3.7 9.3 7.2 6.0 3.2 2.8 3.7 5.1 6.8 5.5 6.9 7.5 9.9 9.4 .7 .4 .5 .6 .4 .7 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban \ ers and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers were unchanged in July and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended July 15. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE] INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 160 120 100 80 1982 '/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] P rices paid by farmer s Pri ces received by farm ers Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Livestock and products All farm products All commodities, services, interest, taxes, l and wage rates Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 105 101 102 100 115 132 134 138 117 105 102 100 105 116 125 134 94 98 101 100 124 147 144 143 81 89 95 100 108 123 138 150 81 89 95 100 109 125 139 150 83 91 97 100 108 125 138 148 130 113 107 100 106 107 97 92 1981: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 142 138 133 130 130 128 138 130 120 120 121 122 147 146 145 140 138 133 150 151 151 150 150 150 150 150 150 149 149 148 148 148 148 147 147 145 95 91 88 87 87 85 1982: Jan: Feb Mar Apr May June July 132 133 133 135 139 137 137 126 123 120 123 125 125 125 137 142 145 147 151 149 149 154 154 155 155 155 156 157 153 153 154 154 155 155 156 148 151 150 150 150 151 151 86 86 86 87 90 88 87 1 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices and wage rates. 2 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Ml declined in June and growth in the broader aggregates declined a little from the May pace. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 400 400 200 200 1982 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, and institution-only MMMF MS plus other liquid assets (OCD) ' 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1981: 1982: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Percent Change from ^ear or 6 n onths earlier Ml M2 277.4 911.2 291.0 310.4 335.5 363.2 389.0 414.5 440.9 1,026.9 1,171.2 1,297.7 1,403.9 1,518.9 1,656.2 1,822.7 1,064.3 1,166.2 1,305.0 1,464.6 1,629.0 1,779.4 1,963.1 2,188.1 1,249.8 1,376.6 1,531.4 1,724.3 1,938.9 2,153.9 2,370.4 2,642.8 4.4 4.9 6.7 8.1 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.4 June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 428.4 429.4 431.1 431.2 432.9 436.4 440.9 1,740.9 1,753.7 1,772.4 1,778.3 1,789.5 1,809.9 1,822.7 2,082.1 2,102.5 2,126.0 2,138.1 2,151.1 2,174.7 2,188.1 2,506.6 2,530.4 2,559.7 2,577.2 2,600.0 2,629.3 2,642.8 6.8 5.6 5.7 3.2 .2 3.4 5.9 10.5 10.8 11.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June*1 448.6 447.3 448.3 452.3 451.5 451.3 1,841.3 1,848.0 1,865.2 1,880.7 1,897.5 1,907.6 2,204.3 2,215.0 2,235.8 2,258.1 2,278.7 2,295.2 2,667.4 2,689.9 2,716.8 9.1 7.7 8.1 9.2 7.0 4.8 10.2 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 month, earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 5.6 12.7 14.1 10.8 8.2 8.2 9.0 10.1 9.3 7.8 9.1 9.6 8.7 M3 8.4 9.6 11.9 12.2 11.2 9.2 10.3 11.5 12.5 12.3 12.8 11.6 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.9 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.5 10.0 9.8 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] DePenod Currency mand deposits ' Other checkable deposits (OCD) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Money market mutua Ifund bala nces General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA NSA Dec: 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 67.8 73.8 80.6 88.6 97.4 106.1 116.2 123.1 207.4 214.1 224.4 239.6 253.9 262.2 267.2 236.4 1981: June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dee 119.7 120.5 120.7 121.1 121.3 121.8 123.1 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May" June ". 123.8 124.6 125.1 126.3 127.4 128.4 Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits 2 Large denomination time deposits 2 Term repurchase agreements (KPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA mgs bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances 53.6 10.6 8.4 8.8 11.8 21.4 26.5 31.8 39.7 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 r paper 290.0 340.9 396.5 454.1 533.9 652.6 751.7 854.7 144.4 129.8 8.4 9.0 8.0 9.7 13.9 33.7 337.6 387.7 451.7 490.4 479.9 421.7 398.9 343.6 118.2 145.2 194.6 221.8 257.9 300.3 15.0 21.0 27.5 30.2 37.8 35.4 13.1 18.7 29.9 42.9 48.4 66.7 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.7 77.1 81.1 89.9 99.3 128.5 156.7 176.5 102.9 112.8 122.2 130.6 137.3 144.9 151.2 20.1 21.6 23.3 26.6 29.4 32.0 33.7 366.8 361.0 350.9 343.1 339.6 340.9 343.6 805.5 814.0 830.8 839.7 849.8 856.8 854.7 285.6 293.1 299.8 302.3 302.2 300.6 300.3 38.8 37.2 33.4 33.8 33.4 35.6 35.4 57.9 58.7 61.0 61.2 63.4 65.5 66.7 69.7 69.4 68.9 68.4 67.9 67.7 67.7 160.3 161.8 164.1 168.1 176.0 179.9 176.5 36.4 37.1 37.3 37.6 37.1 38.1 39.7 100.3 100.8 102.4 103.8 104.4 103.7 104.2 154.9 156.0 159.2 161.9 164.3 168.6 32.5 30.5 31.5 31.5 32.8 33.7 348.8 348.6 350.7 350.5 350.9 349.9 852.3 859.4 869.9 881.6 894.1 901.0 302.6 308.0 312.6 317.1 321.4 328.2 32.5 32.5 31.5 34.2 32.3 31.0 69.5 73.5 74.3 67.8 67.8 67.7 180.3 186.4 191.0 40.2 39.1 37.9 105.4 108.2 110.1 0.4 .9 7.2 7.5 2.7 4.2 8.4 16.9 26.9 77.0 13.7 18.8 24.1 26.3 35.0 38.1 34.4 61.9 151.2 237.7 236.7 236.6 234.7 235.7 235.7 236.4 66.7 68.1 69.5 71.2 71.6 74.7 77.0 42.9 42.3 43.1 39.6 36.1 36.9 38.1 239.3 234.5 233.0 233.0 232.6 231.0 81.1 83.8 85.7 88.6 87.0 87.5 43.2 42.9 43.0 40.4 42.8 42.8 2.1 3.2 2.8 2.9 7.1 0.2 .4 .6 .9 3.1 9.3 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 63.2 67.2 71.7 76.4 50.1 48.0 51.7 62.9 NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Insta Iment credit ext€ nded Total ' 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Automobile Net char ge in amount ou standing Insta [ment credit liquidated Revolving Total l Automobile Revolving Total ' Automobile 495 172,765 180,083 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 336,341 46,514 52,420 63,743 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 94,404 33,213 36,956 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 140,135 163,276 172,675 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,447 46,019 49,444 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,809 31,243 35,616 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,438 9,489 7,408 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 19,894 1981: May June July Aug Sept Get NOT Dee 28,377 29,223 28,290 28,323 29,406 26,836 27,370 26,656 7,384 7,515 8,059 8,396 9,000 7,490 8,073 7,352 11,876 12,658 11,706 11,663 12,263 11,753 11,379 11,592 26,806 27,192 26,739 25,895 26,431 25,834 26,770 26,689 7,498 7,366 7,003 6,537 6,921 6,466 7,509 7,284 11,520 11,651 11,590 11,486 11,692 11,429 11,358 11,533 1,571 2,031 1,551 2,428 2,975 1,002 600 -33 564 68 1982: 26,888 27,150 27,462 28,684 29,197 7,474 7,283 7,183 7,871 8,429 11,070 11,730 12,143 12,416 12,528 26,445 27,075 26,472 27,509 27,798 7,595 7,339 7,211 7,638 7,470 11,266 11,885 11,836 11,917 11,991 443 75 990 -121 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. 1,175 1,399 2,976 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 9,595 -114 149 1,056 1,859 2,079 1,024 -56 -28 233 959 Revolving 1,970 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,697 356 1,007 116 177 571 324 21 59 -196 -155 307 499 537 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial bank loans and investments rose again in June. Reserves also rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,400 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,600 h-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES 200 180 160 140 120 200 180 160 ""*"""""""** 140 1 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1974 1982 1981 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] A 1 commercial ban.ks ' Period Total loans and investments Loans a nd leases Total 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2 Depo U.S. Treasury securities Other securities Total Nonborrowed 3 Born wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) E Bserves adjust d for changes in re serve requirenlents Invest!nents Commercial and industrial loans itory institutio ns Required Total Seasonal 745.2 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 517.4 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 189.6 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 82.2 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 145.6 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 31.16 31.70 33.18 35.08 36.37 39.01 40.53 31.03 31.65 32.61 34.22 34.90 37.32 39.89 30.89 31.43 32.99 34.85 36.04 38.49 40.21 127 62 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 13 12 54 134 82 116 53 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1,295.4 1,302.8 1,312.2 1,317.8 1,324.0 1,327.5 1,316.3 957.2 964.0 972.7 979.0 982.8 986.1 973.9 345.1 350.9 356.6 360.6 363.7 363.4 358.0 116.7 116.4 115.6 113.2 112.5 110.3 111.0 221.6 222.3 223.8 225.6 228.7 231.2 231.4 39.62 39.73 39.81 40.31 40.12 40.15 40.53 37.58 38.05 38.39 38.86 38.94 39.49 39.89 39.28 39.39 39.52 39.90 39.84 39.81 40.21 2,039 1,679 1,417 1,451 1,179 661 636 291 248 220 222 152 79 53 1982: 1,320.0 1,332.4 1,342.5 1,352.6 1,361.9 1,368.7 974.5 985.2 995.0 1,002.0 1,010.7 1,017.1 360.3 365.5 370.0 373.1 378.8 383.4 114.1 115.1 114.4 116.6 116.3 115.8 231.5 232.0 233.1 234.0 234.9 235.8 41.28 40.93 41.09 41.18 41.33 41.44 41.45 39.76 39.14 39.53 39.61 40.21 40.24 40.75 40.86 40.62 40.73 40.91 40.97 41.13 41.12 1,526 1,713 1,611 1,581 1,105 1,211 75 132 174 167 237 239 1 2 3 Jan Peb Mar Apr May June " July" Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 28 e: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External C edit market fu nds Period Total Internal * Total Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: I n m IV 1981: I n m 1982: 165.8 208.7 202.9 167.9 223.4 264.2 320.4 366.7 336.2 377.1 85.0 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 156.1 171.9 190.6 196.8 229.9 80.8 117.0 117.3 48.3 89.2 108.1 148.5 176.1 139.3 147.2 57.6 72.9 82.8 41.7 64.3 84.6 93.2 104.8 106.1 107.3 40.7 36.9 39.1 49.7 48.0 48.1 45.8 39.5 66.5 34.2 16.9 36.0 43.6 -8.0 16.3 36.5 359.6 265.4 325.4 394.3 194.9 192.9 199.2 200.3 164.7 72.5 126.3 194.0 126.7 70.1 93.3 134.3 327.0 411.9 222.0 228.2 236.4 232.9 105.0 183.7 172.1 128.0 226.7 106.0 408.5 360.9 332.7 IV I" Loans and short-term . paper Securities and mortgages Other Total 2 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 137.9 109.7 148.3 174.1 199.2 220.9 216.9 258.7 50.1 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.0 54.4 91.7 119.7 74.9 66.1 16.7 16.7 12.9 17.0 22.0 35.7 29.5 26.2 44.5 52.2 310.6 224.8 289.1 342.4 224.1 212.0 207.1 224.3 86.5 12.8 82.0 118.2 49.0 40.7 36.3 51.9 34.5 38.5 50.7 35.8 300.1 350.8 345.8 302.5 231.6 265.4 281.8 256.1 68.5 85.4 64.0 46.4 26.8 61.1 62.7 58.3 20.3 277.6 228.4 49.2 55.1 47.4 65.3 39.7 73.1 23.2 44.0 34.5 6.5 24.9 23.5 55.3 71.4 33.2 39.9 149.1 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.4 228.5 290.9 340.6 291.7 324.8 65.9 62.3 63.5 74.1 60.8 7.8 29.8 60.2 37.9 2.4 33.0 59.6 70.4 145.3 121.3 92.2 56.2 51.7 9.4 19.3 14.2 93.6 111.9 72.9 126.3 47.7 78.6 1 Capital expenditures 3 99.0 121.5 3 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Souree: Board of " "Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilitit s Curren assets End of period Total Cash U.S. Governsecurities SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Notes and accounts receivable 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 735.4 759.0 826.8 902.1 1,030.0 1,200.9 1,281.6 1,361.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 95.8 104.5 116.1 121.0 124.5 1980: III IV 1,254.9 1,281.6 1981: I 1,321.2 1,317.4 1,349.2 1,361.4 FTC-PEB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 ...- n in iv : 1 Total 2 Based 3 Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio * 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 11.1 19.0 23.4 17.6 16.3 15.6 17.3 15.8 265.8 272.1 292.8 324.7 383.8 456.8 491.2 512.3 319.5 315.9 342.4 374.8 426.9 501.7 525.4 565.3 65.9 69.9 80.1 89.2 98.5 110.8 126.7 143.4 453.4 451.6 494.7 549.4 665.5 809.1 877.2 962.3 269.8 264.2 281.9 313.2 373.7 456.3 498.3 541.3 183.6 187.4 212.8 236.2 291.7 352.8 378.9 421.0 282.0 307.4 332.2 352.7 364.6 391.8 404.4 399.1 1.622 1.681 1.672 1.642 1.548 1.484 1.461 1.415 113.4 121.0 16.4 17.3 478.7 491.2 524.5 525.4 121.9 126.7 850.5 877.2 477.2 498.3 373.4 378.9 404.3 404.4 1.475 1.461 120.5 118.5 118.3 124.5 17.0 17.7 16.0 15.8 507.3 507.4 519.7 512.3 542.8 540.0 557.2 565.3 133.6 133.7 138.1 143.4 910.9 908.1 951.1 962.3 504.0 500.8 529.1 541.3 406.9 407.2 422.0 421.0 410.3 409.3 398.1 399.1 1.450 1.451 1.419 1.415 current assets divided by total current liabilities. on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. Other current assets Inven- NOTE.—SBC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in July. PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) ' 1981 1974 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S.I Yeasury security yields Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1981: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Deo 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Week ended: 1982: June 12 19 26 July 3 10 17 24 31 1 3-month bills ' ;.. Constant rnatalities 3-year High-grade 2 10-year Prime commercial paper, 6 months 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.E. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 4.989 5.265 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.077 14.699 15.612 14.951 13.873 11.269 10.926 12.412 13.780 12.493 12.821 12.148 12.108 11.914 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 15.15 16.00 16.22 15.50 13.11 13.66 14.64 14.73 14.13 14.18 13.77 14.48 14.00 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 14.28 14.94 15.32 15.15 13.39 13.72 14.59 14.43 13.86 13.87 13.62 14.30 13.95 6.49 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.03 12.13 12.86 12.67 11.71 12.77 13.16 12.81 12.72 12.45 11.99 12.42 12.11 8.43 8.02 8.73 9.63 11.94 14.17 14.38 14.89 15.49 15.40 14.22 14.23 15.18 15.27 14.58 14.46 14.26 14.81 14.61 "5.34 4 5.61 "7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 16.09 16.62 15.93 14.72 11.96 12.14 13.35 14.27 13.47 13.64 13.02 13.79 13.00 5.50 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 14-14 14 14 14-14 14 14 14-13 13 12 12-12 12 12 12-12 12 12 12-12 12 12 12 11% 6.84 6.83 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 20-20% 20%-20% 20% 19% 1934-18 18 16 15%-15% 15&-15X 15% 16% 1634-1634 16% 16% 1634-1634 16% 16% 1634-1534 12.074 12.248 12.588 13.269 12.806 11.797 11.140 10.559 14.08 14.57 14.95 14.81 14.49 14.08 13.53 13.72 13.97 14.36 14.70 14.54 14.30 13.93 13.58 13.85 12.31 12.62 12.56 12.54 12.39 12.24 11.87 11.94 14.62 14.79 15.10 15.07 14.96 14.65 14.32 14.39 13.20 13.86 14.49 14.46 14.04 13.28 12.11 12.24 12 12 12-12 12 12 12-12 12 12 12-12 12 11% 16)4-16)4 16% 16% 16)4-16)4 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 1634-16 16-15% Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department, 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 1134-1134 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 9.00 9.02 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 14.72 15.27 15.29 15.65 16.38 15.87 15.25 15.12 15.67 15.84 15.89 15.43 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January' 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices declined in July. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 INDEX, DEC31,1965=50 80 80 50 40 30 30 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 I EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 1974 1975 1976 1979 1978 1977 1980 1981 Common s1 ock yields (perce nt) s Co mmon stock price s 1 Ne\v York Stock Ex change indexes (] )ec. 31, 1965 = 5O ) 2 Period Composite Industrial 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Transportation Finance Utility Dow Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 54.46 53.69 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 60.44 57.86 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 39.57 41.09 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 36.97 40.92 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 52.94 55.25 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 974.92 894.63 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 102.01 98.20 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 4.62 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 1981: July Aug Sept 74.98 75.24 68.37 69.40 71.49 71.81 86.64 86.72 78.07 78.93 80.86 81.70 74.42 73.27 63.67 65.65 67.68 68.27 38.90 40.22 38.17 38.87 40.73 40.22 74.97 73.76 69.38 72.56 76.47 74.74 947.94 926.25 853.38 853.25 860.44 878.28 129.13 129.63 118.27 119.80 122.92 123.79 5.18 5.16 5.69 5.65 5.54 5.57 67.91 66.16 63.86 66.97 67.07 63.10 62.82 76.85 74.78 71.51 75.59 75.97 71.59 71.37 62.04 59.09 55.19 57.91 56.84 53.07 53.40 39.30 38.32 38.57 39.20 39.40 37.34 37.20 70.99 70.50 69.08 71.44 69.16 63.19 61.59 853.41 833.15 812.33 844.96 846.72 804.37 818.41 117.28 114.50 110.84 116.31 116.35 109.70 109.38 5.95 6.06 6.28 5.99 5.97 6.28 6.31 62.53 62.62 62.82 61.96 63.25 63.83 62.28 70.81 71.20 71.39 70.39 71.91 72.56 70.73 52.52 52.76 53.39 53.24 54.31 53.67 52.54 37.33 36.74 36.85 36.67 37.51 37.82 36.87 62.84 62.39 62.74 60.74 61.27 62.33 61.54 796.02 803.25 807.27 804.42 826.69 830.86 816.17 108.68 108.92 109.29 107.72 110.20 111.27 108.47 6.35 6.26 6.29 6.43 6.24 6.19 6.38 Get Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Week ended: 1982: June 19 26 July 3 10 17 24 31 1 Average of daily closing prices. lncludes ali the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. z 3 4 3.77 Earningsprice ratio 8.90 10.79 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.94 13.13 12.45 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 9 months of fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $74.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $48.8 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 800 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 700 700 600 600 500 500 RECEIPTS 400 400 300 300 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-} 0 0 -50 -50 -100 -100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Outlays Receipts Surplus or deficit (— ) Federal debt end of period) Held by the public Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 1983 (estimates): First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1982 Mid-Session Review, July 1982 * 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 622.1 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 731.0 -23.4 -14.8 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -44.9 -48.8 -27.7 -59.6 -57.9 -108.9 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,137.1 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 922.4 665.9 646.5 769.8 761.5 - 103.9 -115.0 1,273.5 1,048.4 Cumulative total, first 9 months: Fiscal year 1981 Fiscal year 1982 443.5 468.5 492.3 542.9 -48.8 — 74.4 977.4 1,084.7 776.0 871.8 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 30, 1982. 32 207.3 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 9 months of fiscal year 1982, budget receipts were $25.0 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $50.6 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 400 RECEIPTS 300 200 200 OTHER RECEIPTS 100 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 1 I 600 600 OUTLAYS 500 500 400 400 NONDEFENSE 300 300 200 200 100 100 1974 1975 1976 1978 1979 1983 1982 1981 1980 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Outlays Recei pts Nation al defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation Other Depart- Total Total taxes Defense, military International affairs Health and income security Interest 20.6 22.8 28.0 30.9 34.5 7.2 38.0 44.0 52.6 64.5 82.5 99.9 111.1 48.8 53.9 51.6 66.5 76.1 21.5 85.7 105.9 107.5 117.3 112.7 109.3 79.0 62.7 77.8 86.9 79.7 Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 1983 1 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 622.1 646.5 94.7 103.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 298.5 293.8 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.9 58.3 80.4 91.4 105.7 116.1 125.0 34.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 273.7 294.4 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 731.0 761.5 76.6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.7 221.5 73.2 77.6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.1 182.8 215.9 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.1 11.2 12.1 80.0 90.4 104.8 134.3 158.9 41.0 174.5 187.4 207.1 248.3 291.1 322.9 337.8 Cumulative total, first 9 months: Fiscal year 1981 Fiscal year 1982 443.5 468.5 208.6 220.7 49.2 42.0 185.7 205.8 492.3 542.9 117.5 138.3 114.8 135.1 8.9 7.7 216.4 239.4 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 30, 1982. 75.1 4.7 4.1 Other Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter, of 1982, Federal receipts fell $16.7 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $0.9 billion, yielding a deficit of $119.3 billion. In the second quarter, expenditures rose $4.7 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 700 700 600 500 500 400 400 300 50 SURPLUS 0 DEFICIT -50 -100 -150 -150 1974 1975 1977 1982 1978 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Governme it receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Calendar year: 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1980: III IV 1981: I II Ill IV 1982: I II" Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals 365.9 414.3 480.9 525.2 614.7 166.3 186.5 222.6 250.2 291.8 58.9 67.3 24.5 27.2 76.1 70.1 70.9 29.2 34.6 55.7 375.2 431.6 493.6 540.7 628.2 542.4 574.6 620.0 627.0 640.2 625.7 609.0 170.1 194.9 230.6 257.5 298.1 260.1 274.4 286.4 297.0 307.9 300.9 299.9 302.4 61.6 71.3 74.2 70.3 67.3 68.0 72.8 76.1 65.6 68.4 59.1 45.6 25.0 28.1 29.4 38.9 58.5 40.2 47.7 57.5 61.5 57.8 57.2 48.7 50.3 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 197' 34 Personal tax and nontax receipts Federal government expenditur es Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government Less: Wage accruals less disburse- 150.4 164.2 189.8 218.0 169.9 182.2 201.8 239.4 279.2 66.4 74.7 79.1 86.6 90.1 28.5 33.6 40.6 50.6 66.2 6.9 9.8 9.8 10.5 13.1 .0 .0 .0 196.3 411.2 450.3 495.6 576.9 666.6 118.5 137.2 159.5 174.1 204.3 174.0 179.8 199.9 202.8 206.1 208.4 214.9 216.1 421.1 461.0 509.7 602.1 688.2 615.4 639.9 659.7 667.5 698.2 727.4 728.3 733.0 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.2 228.9 193.3 207.0 217.0 218.2 230.0 250.5 249.7 244.1 172.8 185.6 209.2 251.4 286.6 266.3 271.9 274.0 276.7 295.1 300.7 303.2 311.6 67.5 77.3 80.5 88.7 87.7 88.9 92.7 90.2 90.6 86.3 83.6 83.0 83.1 29.1 35.2 42,4 53.1 71.9 53.3 56.0 66.3 68.3 74.0 79.0 79.6 82.6 8.2 9.5 9.2 11.7 13.1 .0 .0 .0 -.0 .0 13.6 12.3 12.2 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 11.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 2 116.2 133.3 153.1 170.4 139.8 .0 .1 .1 -.2 .0 or deficit ( T ), national income and product 45.4 -36.1 -14.8 51.9 -51.9 -45.9 -29.5 -16.1 — 61.4 60.0 73.1 -65.2 -39.7 40.5 -58.0 -101.7 -119,3 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Indu strial Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 " 1981: July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Peb" Mar " Apr" May ' Jime p 1 United States 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 153.9 153.6 151.6 149.1 146.3 143.4 140.7 142.9 141.7 140.2 139.4 138.4 Canada 140.3 148.5 152.2 157.7 166.0 162.7 164.8 167.7 164.8 162.3 160.0 157.4 155.3 153.8 153.5 151.6 149.6 151.0 Consunw r prices (l nadjusted) prod uetion (setisonally adju sted) Japan France Germany 139 149 152 154 161 160 157 157 157 160 160 160 162 137.1 149.1 163.9 182.0 189.7 201.1 217.7 232.5 239.3 241.1 234.1 243.1 246.7 246.4 244.4 244.1 244.4 245.1 240.7 236.6 156 156 157 156 152.0 154.1 161.8 162.3 160.0 161 161 161 161 160 158 161 163 164 164 Italy United Kingdom United States ' Canada 114.3 117.4 123.0 127.0 131.7 123.1 118.2 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 118.1 117.8 119.0 121.0 119.1 118.3 118.1 119.0 119.4 120.0 121.4 127.6 143.5 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.6 166.2 127.5 163.1 154.7 163.6 158.9 156.7 164.1 161.4 161.3 160.6 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers- Italy United Kingdom Japan France Germany 160.1 172.1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.3 296.2 178.9 196.1 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 144.2 150.4 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.4 186.8 218.1 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 216.5 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 274.4 276.5 279.3 279.9 280.7 281.5 276.2 278.2 280.2 283.0 285.4 286.7 296.4 294.7 299.5 300.7 299.8 299.8 334.9 339.0 342.9 347.1 350.3 352.4 187.1 187.7 188.6 477.7 481.0 487.7 497.5 506.0 511.1 477.3 480.8 483.5 487.9 493.0 496.1 282.5 283.4 283.1 284.3 287.1 290.6 288.7 292.1 295.8 297.5 301.5 304.5 300.7 299.8 300.4 302.9 303.8 356.0 359.6 363.8 368.2 371.1 517.7 524.4 529.1 533.9 539.8 545.2 499.0 499.1 503.5 513.6 517.3 518.7 189.2 190.1 190.7 192.3 192.8 193.1 194.0 195.2 197.1 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Domestic exports Total domestic foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merchandise trade mlance Merc landise imp orts Mer Jiandise expc rts ' Geileral impon s factured goods Total 2 3 Exports Pood, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels factured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 892 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,672 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 4,602 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 9,240 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) imports (f.a.s.) imports (c.i.f.) 372 762 -.688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 - 1,065 148 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 ]<*.a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1974' 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 8,174 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,053 8,842 9,456 9,912 11,753 14,869 18,036 1,269 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,294 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,547 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 7,831 Customs value 1981 1981: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1982: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 19,473 19,075 2,767 2,752 12,857 21,748 1,529 7,739 11,873 22,779 -2,275 -3,306 19,750 19,289 19,031 19,551 19,163 19,153 18,885 19,340 18,919 18,720 19,108 18,733 18,751 18,377 2,573 2,549 2,470 2,772 2,920 2,675 2,515 2,342 2,430 2,662 2,795 2,863 2,872 2,934 13,456 13,060 12,991 12,947 12,458 12,590 12,318 22,005 20,114 23,242 21,274 23,077 22,508 19,746 1,472 1,390 1,479 1,393 1,583 1,413 1,542 8,249 6,576 7,779 7,411 7,642 7,468 6,174 11,645 11,622 13,361 11,971 13,127 12,826 11,414 23,033 21,074 24,398 22,317 24,194 23,568 20,699 -2,255 -825 -4,212 -1,724 -3,914 -3,356 -861 -3,283 -1,784 -5,367 -2,766 -5,031 -4,415 -1,814 18,737 18,704 18,602 17,843 18,218 18,822 18,350 18,341 18,127 17,441 17,807 18,386 2,279 2,482 2,673 2,506 2,478 2,421 3,076 3,434 3,151 2,898 2,912 2,797 12,463 11,876 11,822 11,428 11,837 12,563 22,829 19,090 20,349 17,387 20,558 21,310 1,340 1,154 1,529 1,435 1,569 1,567 8,269 5,845 5,717 5,033 4,906 6,198 12,584 11,527 12,402 10,337 13,219 12,899 4,092 23,870 -387 19,900 21,237 -1,747 -456 18,165 21,509 -2,340 22,259 -2,488 -5,134 -1,197 -2,635 -322 -3,291 -3,437 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance. * Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The balance on current account shifted to a surplus of $1.2 billion in the first quarter from a deficit of $0.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1981. A decrease in the merchandise trade deficit, to $6.1 billion from $9.2 billion, more than accounted for the shift. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 5 - 1982 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS r OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise J Period i In vestment incorn e 3 Exports Imports Net balance 71,410 98,306 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 236,254 -70,499 -103,649 -98,041 -124,051 -151,689 -175,813 -211,819 -249,575 -264,143 1980: HI IV 55,786 57,856 1981: I n m Net Net military transactions transportation services, net 3 Balance on goods and Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers * Balance on current account Receipts Payments -5,343 9,047 -9,306 30,873 -33,759 -27,346 -25,338 -27,889 21,808 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,129 72,686 85,945 -9,655 -12,084 - 12,564 -13,311 -14,217 -21,680 -32,914 -42,776 -52,908 12,153 15,503 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,215 29,910 33,037 -2,070 -1,653 -746 559 1,528 621 -2,035 -2,471 -1,541 -3,158 -3,184 -2,792 -2,558 -3,293 -3,125 -2,429 -940 -231 3,184 3,986 4,598 4,711 5,224 5,955 5,690 7,144 7,702 11,021 9,309 22,893 9,382 -9,451 -9,743 5,095 8,303 11,079 -59,735 -63,046 -3,949 -5,190 17,848 18,877 - 10,485 -11,518 7,363 7,359 -286 -742 -114 -174 1,810 1,879 4,824 3,131 — 1,444 -2,195 3,380 936 IV 60,683 60,284 57,694 57,593 -64,995 -66,831 -65,539 -66,778 4,312 -6,547 7,845 -9,185 20,528 21,642 22,048 21,727 - 12,405 — 13,441 - 13,865 -13,198 8,123 8,201 8,183 8,529 -487 -587 61 -528 -495 -139 200 203 1,838 1,981 1,960 1,924 4,667 2,909 2,559 943 -1,422 -1,510 -1,808 -1,870 3,245 1,399 751 -927 1982: I". 55,610 -61,669 -6,059 21,188 -14,208 6,980 213 44 1,992 3,170 -1,990 1,180 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 911 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. 3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net services Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. I 7,140 -3,881 2,124 -7,186 18,280 -4,613 4,384 4,998 -4,617 -14,068 5,030 - 14,773 -466 -5,561 1,520 -6,783 4,471 -6,608 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the private capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $34.7 billion in the first quarter of 1982, compared with a $42.7 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 1981. Much of the increase, $25.1 billion, reflected activity of International Banking Facilities (IBFs), which were authorized in December 1981. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 I -60 L COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increas j/eapital inflo\i (+)] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capitall outflow (— ) Period Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 U.S. official reserve assets 12 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -22,874 -34,745 -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,344 -86,026 - 109,294 158 - 1,467 §49 -2,558 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -2,644 366 -3,474 -4,214 -3,693 -4,660 -3,743 -5,126 -5,137 -20,388 -33,643 -35,380 -44,498 -30,717 -57,202 -59,469 -72,746 -98,982 18,388 34,241 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,460 54,484 77,921 6,026 10,546 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 13,697 15,442 4,785 12,362 23,696 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,157 39,042 73,136 HI IV -19,635 -28,512 -1,109 -4,279 -1,390 -1,154 -17,136 -23,079 12,647 25,356 7,541 7,678 5,106 17,677 1981: I II HI IV -22,796 -21,566 -17,257 -47,677 -4,529 -905 4 262 -1,375 -1,518 -1,257 -987 -16,892 -19,143 -15,996 -46,952 8,470 13,464 16,880 39,107 5,361 -2,861 -5,835 8,119 3,109 16,324 22,715 30,988 1982: -38,223 -1,089 909 -36,225 25,828 -3,173 29,001 1980: I" 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMP. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 1,139 1,152 1,093 2,654 -1,620 5,753 10,367 2,465 11,866 25,212 28,870 25,809 1,093 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy assets, net ' (unadjusted, end of period) 14,378 15,883 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,075 3,608 2,219 -2,754 2,605 22,994 26,756 9,988 6,703 -374 9,497 -829 503 2,144 2,474 30,410 29,582 29,716 30,075 11,214 -875 29,944 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402 Price $2.75 (single copy) ($3.45 foreign). 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