Full text of Economic Indicators : July 1980
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96th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators JULY 1980 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1980 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ROGER W. JEPSEN (Iowa) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) JOHN M. ALBERTINE, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHUL1ZE, Chairman GEORGE C. EADS [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, gross national product rose $2.6 billion or 0.4 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) fell 9.1 percent from the first quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 10.4 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,600 (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 1972 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 1969 935.5 579.7 1970... 982.4 618.8 1971 1, 063. 4 668.2 1972 1, 171. 1 733.0 1973. _ 1, 306. 6 809.9 1974 1, 412. 9 889.6 1975 1, 528. 8 979.1 1976 1, 702. 2 1, 089. 9 1977 1, 899. 5 1, 210. 0 1978 2, 127. 6 1, 350. 8 1979 2, 368. 8 1, 509. 8 1978: III _ _ 2, 159. 6 1, 369. 3 IV.__ 2, 235. 2 1, 415. 4 1979: 1 2, 292. 1 1, 454. 2 II- „ 2, 329. 8 1, 475. 9 III_. 2, 396. 5 1, 528. 6 IV... 2, 456. 9 1, 580. 4 1980: I 2, 520. 8 1, 629. 5 D>__ 2, 523. 4 1, 628. 2 Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports Exports Imports Total 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214.6 190.9 243.0 303. 3 351.5 387.2 356.2 370.5 373.8 395.4 392.3 387.2 387.7 366.9 1.8 3.9 1.6 -3.3 7. 1 6.0 20.4 8.0 -9.9 10 3 4 6 -6.8 -4.5 4.0 -8. 1 -2.3 -11.9 -13.6 1.3 54.7 62.5 65.6 72.7 101.6 137.9 147.3 163.3 175. 9 207.2 257.5 213.8 224.9 238. 5 243.7 267.3 280.4 308. 1 307.3 52.9 58.5 64.0 75.9 94. 4 131.9 126.9 155.4 185.8 217.5 262. 1 220.6 229.4 234.4 251.9 269.5 292.4 321.7 306.0 207.9 218.9 233.7 253. 1 269.5 302.7 338.4 361.3 396.2 435.6 476.4 440.9 453.8 460. 1 466.6 477.8 501. 2 517.2 527.0 Federal Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Government purchases of goods and services Gross private domestic investment Total National defense 97.5 95.6 96.2 102. 1 102.2 111. 1 123. 1 129.7 144.4 152. 6 166. 6 152.3 159.0 163.6 161.7 162.9 178.4 186.2 192.5 76.3 73.5 70.2 73.5 73.5 77.0 83.7 86.4 93.7 99.0 108.3 99.0 101.2 103.4 106.0 109.0 1146 119.6 123.6 Nondefense 21.2 22. 1 26.0 28.6 28.7 34. 1 39.4 43.3 50.6 53.6 58.4 53.3 57.8 60.2 55.7 53.9 63.8 66.6 68.9 State and local 110.4 123.2 137.5 151.0 167.3 191.5 215.4 231.6 251.8 283.0 309.8 288.6 294.8 296. 5 304.9 3149 322.8 331.0 3345 Final sales 926.2 978.6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 6 1, 404 0 1, 539. 6 1, 692. 1 1, 877. 6 2, 105. 2 2, 350. 6 2, 139. 5 2, 214 5 2, 272. 9 2, 296. 4 2, 381. 9 2, 451. 4 2, 516. 1 2, 511. 7 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS |Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal conGross national sumpproduct tion expenditures Period Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Change in busi"NJW JNet Exports Imports ness in- exports ventories Total Federal State and local Final sales 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 217. 8 1, 202. 3 1, 273. 0 1, 340. 5 1, 399. 2 1, 431. 6 655. 4 668. 9 691.9 733.0 767. 7 760.7 7746 820.6 861. 7 900.8 9245 114 3 110. 0 108. 0 116. 8 131. 0 130. 6 113. 6 119.0 129.3 140. 1 148. 8 43. 2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59.7 45.0 38.8 47.8 57.7 60. 1 56.7 10.6 43 6.6 9.4 16.5 8.0 -9.8 6.6 13. 1 14 1 9. 7 -1.3 1.4 -.6 -3.3 7.6 15.9 22.6 15.8 10.3 11.0 17.6 62.2 67. 1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93.0 90.0 96. 1 98.4 108.9 119.9 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 77.1 67.5 80.4 88.2 97.9 102.3 256.7 250.2 249.4 253. 1 252.5 257.7 262.6 263.3 268.5 273.2 2743 121.8 110. 7 103. 9 102. 1 96. 6 95.8 96.5 96.4 100.6 98. 6 99.4 134. 9 139. 5 145. 5 151.0 155. 9 161.8 166. 1 166.9 167. 9 174 6 174 9 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 209. 9 1, 212. 1 1, 266. 4 1, 327. 4 1. 385. 1 1, 421. 9 1978: III- 1, 407. 3 IV.. 1, 426. 6 905.3 920.3 141.6 145. 5 60.2 60.0 12.2 12.0 13.3 12.9 111.9 113.8 98.5 101.0 2747 276.0 98.5 99.3 176. 2 176.6 1, 395. 1 1, 414 6 1, 430. 6 1979: I II— 1, 422. 3 III.. 1, 433. 3 IV.. 1, 440. 3 921.8 915.0 925.9 935.4 147.2 146.9 150.7 150.5 57.7 56.7 56.5 55.8 12.3 18. 1 7. 1 1.4 17.0 13.2 20. 1 20. 1 117.0 116.0 122.2 1243 100.0 102.9 102. 1 104 1 274.7 272.4 273. 1 277.1 101. 1 98. 1 97.4 101. 1 173.6 174. 3 175.6 176.0 1,418,4 1, 404. 1 1, 426. 2 1, 439. 0 1980:1-... 1, 444. 7 II*_. 1, 410. 8 936.5 913.6 151. 2 143.9 51.7 41. 1 .3 2.3 25.0 29.3 131.7 128.7 106.7 99.4 280.0 280.6 104.3 106.6 175.7 174.0 1, 444 4 1, 408. 5 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures Total Gross private domestic investment NonresNonDurable durable Services idential goods goods fixed Residential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Exports Imports Federal State and local 86.72 91.36 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 02 127. 15 133. 71 141. 70 152. 05 165. 46 88.5 92.5 96.6 100.0 105.5 116.9 126.4 132.8 140.4 150.0 163.3 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100. 0 101.6 108.4 117.7 124.3 129.4 136.5 1448 89.4 93.6 96.6 100.0 107.9 123.8 133.4 138. 1 144.7 154.6 171.0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100.0 1047 113. 6 123.2 131.2 140.7 150.9 163.4 86.6 91.3 96.4 100.0 103.8 115.3 132.2 138.5 146.6 157.8 171.3 87.7 90.6 949 100.0 110.8 122.3 132.8 142. 5 159.3 179.7 201.4 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116.2 148.3 163.6 169.9 178.7 190.3 2148 83.3 89. 1 93.5 100.0 118.2 171.0 188.0 193.3 210.7 222. 1 256.2 80.0 86.4 92.6 100.0 105.8 115.9 127.5 1346 143. 6 154.8 167.6 81.9 88.3 945 100.0 107.3 118.4 129.7 138.8 150.0 162. 1 177. 1 1978:111 IV_. 153. 45 156. 68 151. 3 153.8 137.9 139.4 155.7 158.6 152.3 155.0 159.6 162.3 183. 1 189.5 191. 1 197.6 223.9 227.2 154.6 160. 1 163.8 166.9 1979: I— II- . III IV... 160. 22 163. 81 167. 20 170. 58 157.8 161.3 165. 1 169. 0 142.4 144.1 145.3 147.4 164 1 168.9 173.2 177.6 158.0 161.0 165.3 169.2 165.4 169.6 173.8 176.2 192.6 199.2 205.5 208.7 203. 9 210. 1 218.7 225.7 2345 244.9 264.0 280.8 161. 9 1648 167.2 176.4 170.8 174.9 179.3 183.5 1980: I II*_. 174. 48 178. 86 174.0 178.2 151.5 153.6 1841 187.5 173.3 178.0 180.3 1847 213. 4 217.6 2340 238.7 aoi.s 178.5 180.7 188.4 192. 2 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 .. 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 ... __ Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 307. 7 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES (Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 . 1973. 1974 1975 1976 ... 1977. 1978 1979 1978: III - _ IV . — 1979: 1 II III IV 1980: 1 II » 9.1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10.1 11.6 8.1 a2 11.3 11.6 12.0 11.3 10.9 14.8 10.6 6.7 11.9 10.5 10.8 .4 44 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.5 -1.4 -1.3 5.9 5.3 44 2.3 3.5 5.6 1. 1 -2.3 3.1 2.0 1.2 -9.1 Implicit price deflator Gross domestic product Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 44 5.0 5.3 5.0 41 6.0 9.9 9.4 5.6 6.3 7.4 8.9 8.2 8.6 9.7 8.8 8.9 8.5 9.6 8.3 43 5.0 5.2 49 40 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.6 6.4 7.5 9.3 8.3 8.9 9.9 9.5 10.0 9.4 10.9 8.9 45 5.0 5.4 5.1 41 5.8 9.7 9.6 5.2 6.0 7.3 8.8 7.2 8.7 9.3 9.3 8.5 8.4 9.5 10.4 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Current dollars 9.1 7.8 5.0 8.1 10.1 11.5 7.9 8.5 11.2 11.5 12.0 11.2 11.1 148 10.1 6.9 11.5 10.7 10.5 -. 1 Constant (1972) dollars 44 2.6 -.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 -1.1 5.7 5.3 44 2.3 3.6 5.6 .9 —2. 1 3.2 2.4 1.4 -9.4 Implicit price deflator 45 5.1 5.3 5.1 41 5.7 9.3 9.7 5.1 5.9 7.3 8.7 7.2 8.7 9.1 9.2 8.0 8.1 9.0 10.3 Chain price index 44 5.0 5.3 5.0 41 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.6 6.2 7.4 8.8 8.2 8.7 9.6 8.7 8.4 8.1 9.2 8.3 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 44 5.0 5.2 4.9 40 5.9 9.9 9.3 5.6 6.4 7.5 9.3 8.3 8.9 9.9 9.4 9.6 9.1 10.6 8.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS Period Gross domestic product of non financial corporate business (billions of dollars) [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) Capital conComsumption penTotal allowNet ances Indirect sation cost of inwith business and 2 3 employ- terest profit capital taxes ees consumption adjustment Current dollars 1972 dollars 498.4 1968 541.8 1969 560.6 1970 602.5 1971 671.0 1972 1973 752.0 1974 808.8 8741 1975 988.0 1976 1977 1, 106. 3 1978_ _ __ 1, 246. 9 1979 1, 387. 7 1978:111.. 1, 267. 9 IV— 1, 314 1 1,346.4 1979:1 II..,. 1, 370. 4 IEU- 1, 401. 3 1, 432. 9 IV 581.6 607. 3 600.6 619.3 671.0 720.4 695.0 680.0 730.4 770.7 818.7 8441 826. 3 841.4 846.6 841.0 842.4 846.3 0.857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1.044 1.164 1.285 1.353 1.436 1.523 1. 644 1.535 1.562 1. 590 1. 629 1.664 1.693 0.074 .079 .088 .094 .093 .095 .116 . 142 . 146 . 151 . 155 .167 . 155 .155 .158 . 165 .170 .175 0. 089 .094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 . 136 .137 . 140 . 143 . 150 . 142 . 143 .145 . 148 . 151 . 154 0.553 .589 .628 .645 .661 .699 .796 .848 .890 .951 1.020 1. 115 1.024 1.042 1.075 1. 104 1. 127 1. 152 0.017 .022 .028 .029 .028 .032 .043 .045 .042 .043 .048 .056 .049 .050 .052 .054 .057 .060 1980:1 ... 1, 470. 1 848.0 1.734 . 179 . 159 1. 182 .064 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 3 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonflnancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. * Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax* 0 124 109 086 095 107 105 086 113 138 151 157 157 163 171 161 159 157 153 0.058 .055 .045 .048 .050 .055 .061 .060 .072 .077 .084 .089 .086 .093 .088 .085 .091 .092 0.066 .055 .041 .046 .057 .050 .024 .053 .066 .074 .073 .068 .077 .078 .072 .074 .066 .061 7.110 7.137 7. 139 7.377 7.608 7.767 7.480 7.720 7.967 8.052 8. 122 8.088 8.152 8.173 8. 125 8.071 8.065 8.056 3.931 4.197 4482 4.758 5.032 5.431 5.951 6.549 7.092 7.654 8.281 9.014 8.352 8.514 8.734 8.909 9. 093 9.279 .098 .051 8.055 9.524 . 148 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. NOTE.—Data for output per hour and compensation per hour revised beginning 1977. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Proprietors1 income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Compensation of employees1 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital Net coninterest sumption adjustment 571.4 609.2 650.3 715.1 799.2 875.8 931.1 1. 037. 8 1, 156. 9 1, 304. 5 1, 459. 2 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.3 19.6 27.7 32.8 52.3 51.2 53.4 58.1 60.4 60.9 63.5 71.0 80.5 89.1 98.0 18. 1 18.6 20.1 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22.1 24.7 25.9 26.9 81.4 67.9 77.2 92.1 99.1 83.6 95.9 126.8 150.0 167.7 178.2 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107.9 141.3 162.0 180. 8 194.9 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126.9 120.4 156.0 177.1 206.0 236.6 -5.5 -5.1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 -40.4 -12.4 -14.6 -15.2 -25.2 -41.8 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -2.9 -12.0 -14.5 -12.0 -13. 1 -16.7 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 69.0 78.6 83.8 94.0 109.5 129.7 1978: III IV 1, 752. 5 1, 321. 1 1, 820. 0 1, 364. 8 26.1 31.3 91.3 94.4 26.8 27.1 175. 2 184.8 189. 0 198.6 212. 0 227.4 -23.0 -28.8 -13.8 -13.8 111.9 117.6 1979: 1 II III . . . IV 1, 869. 0 1, 897. 9 1, 941. 9 1, 990. 4 1, 411. 2 1, 439. 7 1, 472. 8 1, 513. 2 34.2 33.7 30.9 32.5 94.8 95.5 99.4 102.1 27.3 26.8 26.6 27.0 178.9 176.6 180.8 176.4 193.3 191.3 198.3 196.5 233.3 227.9 242.3 243.0 -39.9 -36.6 -44.0 -46. 5 -14.5 -14.7 -17.6 -20. 1 122. 6 125. 6 131. 5 139.2 1980:1 2, 035. 4 1, 555. 2 1, 566. 1 27.7 22.2 102.3 97. 1 27.0 27.3 175.0 197.2 260.4 -63.2 -27.8 -22. 2 -246 148. 1 156.8 767.9 798.4 858. 1 951.9 1, 064. 6 1, 136. 0 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 8 1, 525. 8 1, 724. 3 _- 1, 924. 8 1969 1970 — 1971 1972 1973 .. 1974 „_ 1975 1976. 1977.-. 1978 1979 II 9 »Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods l Motor vehicles and parts 579. 7 618. 8 668.2 733.0 809. 9 889. 6 979. 1 1, 089. 9 1 210. 0 1, 350. 8 1, 509. 8 85. 5 84 9 97. 1 111.2 123. 7 122. 0 132. 6 157. 4 178. 8 200. 3 213.0 37. 7 34. 9 43. 8 50.6 55. 2 48. 0 53. 4 70. 0 81. 6 91. 2 91. 5 35. 0 36. 7 39. 4 44. 8 50. 7 54. 9 58. 0 64. 0 70. 9 77. 6 85. 6 247. 0 264. 7 277. 7 299. 3 333. 8 376. 3 408. 9 443. 9 481. 3 530. 6 596. 9 126. 1 136.3 140. 6 150.4 168. 1 189.8 209. 6 227. 1 246. 7 271. 7 302. 0 1, 369. 3 1, 415. 4 1, 454. 2 1, 475. 9 1, 528. 6 1, 580. 4 203. 5 212.1 213.8 208.7 213.4 216.2 92.4 94.9 97.7 89. 1 89.8 89.4 78.9 82.7 82. 1 84.287.3 88.9 536.7 558. 1 571. 1 581. 2 604.7 630.7 1980: 1 1, 629. 5 II "___ 1, 628. 2 220.2 197. 0 92.9 71.9 88.2 86.6 652.0 654.4 Period 1969 1970__. 1971 1972 1973 1974___ . 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 . 1978: III IV 1979:1 II III .... IV .... 1 Total Includes otber items not shown separately. Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable goods l Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 274.5 283.9 292.9 296.7 303. 1 315.6 45. 1 46.6 50.5 55. 1 61. 3 65.3 70. 1 75. 9 82.4 91. 2 99. 2 92.7 96.8 95.5 96.9 101.0 103.6 20.4 22.0 23.4 249 27. 8 36. 4 39. 5 42. 9 46. 7 50. 9 65. 1 51.5 55.0 58.4 60.2 68.3 73i4 322.6 324.0 103.9 106.6 83.6 84.7 Food Services Domestics 247.2 269. 1 293.4 322.4 352.3 391. 3 437.5 488. 5 549. 8 619. 8 699. 8 Imports 629.1 645.1 669.3 686.0 710.6 733.5 8.5 7. 1 8. 7 9.3 9. 7 7.5 7. 1 8. 6 9. 1 9. 3 8. 3 9.4 9.3 9.3 8.0 8.6 7.5 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.4 757.3 776. 8 7.9 5.5 2.8 2.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1. 1 .3 .6 .6 .8 .4 1. 6 1. 5 2. 1 2. 0 2. 3 SOURCES OP PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $8.0 billion (annual rate) in June following a revised increase of $6.2 billion in May. Wages and salaries rose $0.8 billion in June, compared with $0.1 billion in May. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,400 2,000 1,800 1,600 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 „..«*«" OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS I 200 200 A... 160 160 ^ 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 1973 1972 1974 1975 1978 1977 1976 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 633.8 701.3 7646 805.9 890.0 9840 1, 103. 3 1, 227. 6 1, 220. 5 1, 229. 8 1, 236. 5 1, 247. 9 1, 257. 4 1, 271. 3 1, 282. 9 1, 293. 0 1, 304 2 1, 314 0 1, 309. 0 1, 309. 1 1, 309. 9 42.0 48.7 55.6 65. 1 77.4 91.8 106.5 122.7 121.8 123.3 124.9 126.4 mo 129.6 131.2 132.8 134 4 136.0 137.5 138.8 140. 1 18.0 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.3 19.6 27.7 32.8 33.4 32.8 31.0 28.8 31.0 33.0 33.4 31.3 27.9 24.0 23.0 22.0 21.5 58.1 60.4 60.9 63.5 71.0 80.5 89.1 98.0 95.8 97.9 99.5 100.9 101.1 102. 1 103.0 103. 9 102.3 100.8 98.9 96.7 95.6 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. * With capital consumption adjustment. 65-659 0 - 8 0 - 2 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1 3 Wage Rental Total Other Proprietors income income and Transfer Divi- Personal personal salary labor 12 payinterest dends of income disburseincome income ments 5 Farm Nonfarm persons 4 l ments 1972 942.5 1973 1, 052. 4 1974 _ 1, 154 9 1975 1, 255. 5 1976 1, 381. 6 1977— 1, 531. 6 1978 1, 717. 4 1979 1, 924 2 1979: June 1, 905. 1 July. 1, 933. 2 Aug 1, 946. 5 Sept... 1, 960. 1 Oct 1, 981. 2 Nov_... 2, 005. 5 Dec 2, 028. 3 2, 046. 5 1980: Jan Feb. 2, 055. 7 Mar 2, 070. 0 Apr 2, 071. 5 May »_.. 2, 077. 7 June*-— 2, 085. 7 1979 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22.1 247 25.9 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.3 25.0 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 26. 6 27.2 27.4 27. 1 27.4 246 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.5 42.1 47.2 52.7 52.6 52.5 52.7 53.0 53.6 542 55.2 55.8 56. 6 57.5 58. 1 58.5 59.2 746 841 103.0 115. 5 127.0 141.7 163,3 192. 1 189.4 191.8 1944 197. 1 200.7 205.4 210.3 2141 217.2 220.3 224.8 229.4 233.7 1041 118.9 140.8 178.2 193.8 208.4 2241 252.0 2447 258.5 261.2 262.7 2648 265.9 268.8 275.0 273.5 276.1 278.0 282.9 285.6 Less: Personal con- Nonfarm tributions personal for social income 6 insurance 342 42.2 47.7 50.5 55.6 61.3 69.6 80.7 80.2 80.8 81.0 81.7 82.2 83.0 83.6 86.7 87.1 85.9 85.1 86.7 87.3 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1, 350. 6 1, 498. 1 1, 674 2 1, 873. 4 1, 853. 7 1, 882. 3 1, 897. 3 1, 913. 1 1, 931. 8 1, 953. 9 1, 976. 1 1, 995. 9 2, 008. 3 2, 026. 2 2, 028. 5 2, 035. 5 2, 043. 8 • Consists mainly of social insurance-"benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income declined in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) SCALE) 10,000 9,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less : Personal Equals: DisposPertax able sonal and perincome nonsonal tax pay- income ments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays 1 Per capita disposable personal income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Billions of dollars 1971 1972 ___ 1973 1974______ 1975 1976__ 1977. ... 1978 1979 859. 1 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 154. 9 1, 255. 5 1, 381. 6 1, 531. 6 1, 717. 4 1, 924. 2 116.3 141.2 150.8 170.3 168. 8 197. 1 226.4 259. 0 299.9 742.8 801.3 901.7 984. 6 1, 086. 7 1, 184. 5 1, 305. 1 1, 458. 4 1, 624. 3 1978:III__ 1, 742. 5 IV__ 1, 803. 1 1979: !____ 1, 852. 6 IL__ 1, 892. 5 III— 1, 946. 6 IV... 2, 005. 0 1980: !____ 2, 057. 4 II*.. 2, 078. 3 266.0 278. 2 280.4 290.7 306. 6 321.9 320.0 324.3 1, 476. 5 1, 524. 8 1, 572. 2 1, 601. 7 1, 640. 0 1, 683. 1 1, 737. 4 1, 754. 0 1972 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of Population disposable (thou-2 sands) personal income Dollars 685.5 751.9 831.3 913. 0 1, 003. 0 1, 115. 9 1, 240. 2 1, 386. 4 1, 550. 5 57.3 49.4 70.3 71.7 83.6 68.6 65.0 72. 0 73.8 3,588 3,837 4,285 4,646 5,088 5,504 6,017 6,672 7,367 3,714 3,837 4,062 3,973 4,025 4, 144 4,285 4,449 4,512 3,227 3,510 3,849 4, 197 4,584 5,064 5,579 6, 179 6,848 3,342 3,510 3,648 3,589 3,627 3,813 3,973 4, 121 4, 193 2.6 3. 3 5.9 -2.2 1.3 3.0 3.4 3.8 1.4 7.7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.7 5. 8 5.0 4.9 4.5 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211,945 213, 566 215, 203 216, 898 218, 594 220, 464 4,461 4,522 4,536 4,510 4,501 4,502 6,258 6,455 6,619 6,704 6,926 7,142 4,502 4,428 7,348 7,326 4, 137 4, 197 4, 196 4,156 4, 195 4,227 4,223 4,111 3.3 5.6 1.2 -2.3 -.8 .1 0 -6.4 4.8 4.7 5.0 5.4 4.3 3.5 3.7 4.7 218, 814 219, 286 219, 690 220, 166 220, 715 221, 285 221, 768 222, 255 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1, 405. 6 1, 453. 4 1, 493. 0 1, 515. 8 1, 569. 7 1, 623. 4 1, 672. 9 1, 671. 1 70.9 71.5 79.2 85.9 70.3 59.7 64.4 82.9 6,748 6,954 7,157 7,275 7,430 7,606 7,834 7,892 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter, net farm income before inventory adjustment fell $1.5 billion (annual rate), while income after inventory adjustment fell $2.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) I 200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME_ BEFORE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME AFTER INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT *^ / I 20 20 /^I—7 10 10 1972 1973 1974 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal income received by total farm population Income received from farming Gross income before inventory adjustment Period 1972 1973__. 1974_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1975 1976 1977. 1978..1979- . 1978:111..IV 1979: I II III— IV.-. 1980: I II *___ From From From all farm nonfarm sources sources sources Total * 34.6 48.9 45.2 44.5 40.3 42.9 54.0 60.5 16.9 29.2 23.4 21.9 16.8 18.0 25.2 29.9 17.8 19.7 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.9 28.8 30.5 Cash receipts from marketings 70.1 95.5 100.0 96.9 104.2 107.5 124.9 142.3 122.2 133.4 142.2 142.7 140.5 144.1 Livestock Total Crops and products Billions of dollars 61.2 35.7 25.5 87.1 45.9 41.1 92.4 41.4 51. 1 88.2 43.0 45.1 46. 1 94.8 48.7 47.4 95.7 48.2 111. 0 59. 0 52. 1 67.2 128.9 61.7 60.4 109. 0 48.6 118. 0 63.4 54.6 129. 2 69.8 59.4 67.8 129.1 61.3 127.2 65.2 62.0 130.4 66.2 64.2 146.5 147.2 132. 1 132.3 «Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. * Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. 1 Based on 1969 Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year; data for 1979 and 1980 estimated. 67.6 62.7 64.5 69.6 Net to farm operators Production expenses Before inventory adjustment After inventory adjust-2 ment Net income per farm after inventory adjustment 8 Current 1967 dollars dollars 4 Dollars 52.3 65.6 72.2 75.9 83.1 88.8 98. 1 113.7 97.4 103.0 109. 2 112.2 115. 2 118. 2 17.8 29.9 27.7 21.1 21.0 18.7 26.3 28.6 24.8 30.4 33.0 30.5 25.3 25.9 18.7 33.3 26. 1 245 18.7 19.8 27.9 33.0 26.3 31.6 36.0 340 29.8 32.4 6,526 11, 813 9,349 8,846 6,823 7,301 10, 434 12, 550 9,840 11, 830 13,690 12, 930 11,330 12, 320 5,208 8,875 6,330 5, 488 4,002 4,023 5,340 5,770 4,980 5,860 6,590 6,040 5,130 5,400 122.0 1242 245 23.0 27.3 248 10, 490 9,530 4,420 3,890 «Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1980, corporate profits before tax rose $17.4 billion (annual rate) while after-tax profits rose $11.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 40 40 1980 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits after tax Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment * Domestic industries Nonfinancial Period Total * 1969 1970... 1971 1972 _ . 1973 1974 1975 . 1976 .. 1977 1978 1979 1978: III IV .. 1979:1 _ _ II __ III IV 1980: I HP __ 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97. 2 86.5 107.9 141. 3 162.0 180.8 194.9 189.0 198.6 193.3 191.3 198.3 196.5 197.2 Total 74.2 62. 6 72.4 84.7 90.4 76.9 101.8 133.1 152.1 170.6 181.6 178.8 189.0 181.4 179.6 182.5 183.0 181. 1 ManuFinancial Total1 facturing Wholesale and retail trade 36.8 27. 1 32.4 40.6 44. 1 36.6 48.3 65.7 73.5 81.7 88.8 85. 1 90.6 94. 1 90.6 86.4 84.0 93.0 10. 1 9.4 11.7 13.3 14.7 12.9 20.7 23.3 24. 1 23.0 23.7 25.5 25.8 18.6 22.4 26.5 27. 1 16.5 11.3 12.6 14 1 15.4 16.2 14.4 13.0 17.8 23.8 29.7 33.2 30.6 32. 1 31.9 32.0 33.8 35.0 34.7 62.9 50. 1 58.2 69.3 74. 1 62.5 88.9 115.3 128.3 140.9 148.5 148. 3 156.9 149.6 147.7 148.7 148.0 146.5 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. * Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 Profits before tax 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126.9 120.4 156.0 177.1 206. 0 236.6 212.0 227.4 233. 3 227. 9 242. 3 243.0 260.4 Tax liability Total Dividends 39.7 34. 5 37.7 41.5 48.7 52.4 49.8 63.8 72.6 84.5 92.5 87.5 95. 1 91.3 88.7 94.0 96. 1 102.4 43.8 37.0 44.3 54.6 67.1 74.5 70.6 92.2 104.5 121.5 144.1 124.6 132.3 142.0 139.3 148.3 146.9 158.0 22.6 22.9 23. 0 24. 6 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.5 42. 1 47.2 52.7 47.8 49.7 51. 5 52.3 52.8 54.4 56.7 58. 6 Undistributed profits 21.2 14. 1 21. 3 30. 0 39.3 43. 6 38.7 54.7 62.4 74.3 91.4 76.8 82.6 90.5 87.0 95.5 92.5 101. 3 ' Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 -40.4 -12.4 -14.6 -15.2 —25.2 -41.8 -23.0 -28.8 -39.9 — 36.6 -44.0 -46.5 -63.2 -27.8 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment fell $6.7 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays decreased $0.6 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases fell $6.2 billion. Residential investment outlays fell $21.1 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $11.7 billion, up $7.0 billion from the first quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 400 350 300 250 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 50 -50 -50 1972 1979 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Residential fixed investment Nonresidential fixed investment Period 1969 . 1970 . 1971 ... 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . 1978: III IV. _ 1979: I_. II™ III IV „ 1980: I II* Gross private domestie investment 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214.6 190.9 243.0 303.3 351.5 387.2 356. 2 370.5 373.8 395.4 392.3 387.2 387.7 366. 9 Structures Total 98.9 100.5 104.1 116.8 136.0 150.6 150.2 1649 189. 4 221. 1 254.9 225.9 236. 1 243.4 249. 1 261.8 265.2 272.6 265.9 Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 35.7 37.7 39.3 42.5 49.0 545 53.8 57.3 62.6 76.5 92.6 79.7 844 849 90.5 95.0 100.2 103.3 102.7 343 36.1 37.8 41.1 46.9 51.8 51.3 547 59.8 73.3 88.9 76.4 81. 1 81.2 86.8 91.4 96.3 99.6 99.0 63.3 62.8 647 743 87.0 96.2 96.4 107.6 126.8 1446 162.2 146.3 151. 8 158.5 158.6 166.7 165. 1 169.4 163.2 58.9 5ai 59.9 69.1 80.1 88.2 87.4 97.4 116.3 132.6 147.8 133.5 138.9 146. 1 1445 150.0 150.4 155.9 149. 6 Total 37.9 36.6 49.6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51.5 68.1 91.9 108.0 114 1 110.2 113.7 111.2 112. 9 116.0 116.4 110.4 89.3 Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers' durable equipment 36.3 35. 1 47.9 60.3 643 52.7 49.5 65.7 88.8 1044 110.2 106.4 110.0 107.8 109. 1 112.0 112.1 105.9 85.7 0.7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.2 .9 1. 1 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 0.9 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1. 1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 Change in business inventories Total Nonfarm 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17.9 8.9 -10.7 10.0 21.9 22.3 18.2 20.0 20.6 19.1 33.4 145 5.6 47 11.7 9.2 3.7 5. 1 8.8 147 10.8 -143 12. 1 20.7 21.3 16.5 18.5 19.3 18.8 32.6 12.6 2.1 4.4 12.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 9.9 percent in 1980, according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in late April and May. The planned increase in spending is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 11.1 percent reported in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 40 20 20 1972 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 _]/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts of plant and equipment projects 8 Expenditures for plant and equipment Manufacturing Period Total » 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 .. 1980 4 1979: I II . Ill IV 1980: I 4 II __._ III «... RM__- 88.44 99.74 112. 40 112. 78 120. 49 135. 80 153. 82 177. 09 194.68 165. 94 173. 48 179. 33 186. 95 191. 36 191. 00 195. 54 199. 41 Nonmanufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 31.35 38.01 46. 01 47.95 52.48 60. 16 67.62 78. 92 89.66 71.56 76.42 80.22 85. 19 87.32 86. 82 90.97 92.14 15. 64 19.25 22. 62 21. 84 23.68 27.77 31.66 38.23 48.11 34.00 36.86 39.72 41.30 42.30 42. 18 48. 70 44.06 15.72 18.76 23.39 26. 11 28.81 32.39 35.96 40.69 46.45 37.56 39.56 40. 50 43.88 45.01 44-64 47.28 48.07 57.09 61.73 66.39 64.82 68.01 75.64 86. 19 98. 17 105. 08 94.38 97.06 99. 12 101. 76 104. 04 104. 18 104-56 107. 27 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 10 Commercial and 2 other Manufacturing 11.89 20.07 12.85 21.40 13.96 22.05 12.74 20.60 13.30 20.99 15.45 22.97 18. 16 25.71 20.56 29.35 22.51 82.51 18.75 27.73 20.29 28.51 20. 41 29.66 22.71 30.72 22.48 30.86 63. 48 55. 00 57. 76 35.21 47.57 52. 49 48.24 51.05 66.73 72.44 87. 30 28.60 38. 13 45.74 34 50 29.66 32.54 34 93 21.70 21.98 19.56 20.87 2471 25.52 3.27 5.75 8.00 4 13 12.20 Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munition ties cation 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 4.00 4.50 4.78 5.56 6. 18 5.46 5.31 5.42 6.06 6.02 6. 72 5.88 6.14 5.72 17.00 6.03 18.71 6.66 20.55 7.57 20.14 7.45 22.28 6. 93 25.80 8. 05 29.48 10. 12 32.56 10.95 82.94 10.08 32.35 9.71 33.24 10.29 33.33 10.74 31.52 10.32 3435 11.16 32.87 10.98 32. 71 11.21 32.16 Public utilities 8* Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April and May 1980. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment fell 451,000 in June and unemployment fell 148,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 1980 1972 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Noninlabor stitu- Civilian Unem- force tional employ- ploy- (includpopulament ment ing Armed tion Forces) 150, 827 85, 935 5,076 93, 240 153, 449 84, 783 7,830 94, 793 156, 048 87, 485 7,288 96, 917 158, 559 90, 546 6, 855 99, 534 161, 058 94, 373 6,047 102, 537 163, 620 96, 945 5,963 104, 996 and over, except as noted] Civilian employment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Nonagricultural Part-time ecoTotal for nomic l reasons 2,709 82, 443 81, 403 3,490 3,272 84, 188 87, 302 3,297 3,216 91, 031 93, 648 3,281 91, Oil 92, 613 94, 773 97, 401 100, 420 102, 908 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 96, 945 3,492 3,380 3,297 3,244 3,342 3,297 3,243 3,267 3, 315 3,364 3,294 3,385 3,359 93, 409 93, 917 93, 689 94, 140 94, 180 94, 223 94, 553 3,270 3,326 3,358 3,242 3,379 3, 191 94, 534 94, 626 94, 298 93, 912 93, 609 93, 346 Unemployment 15 Total weeks and over Labor force partici__ _ 4.* _._. pation rate /"l^ci«t vper- _ 4_\ 4o cent; 5,076 7,830 7, 288 6, 855 6,047 5,963 2,483 2,339 1,911 1,379 1,202 3,284 3,274 3,298 3, 167 3,315 3,392 3,519 5,824 5,909 6, 124 5,990 6,121 6,044 6,087 1,152 1,067 1, 185 1, 152 1,195 1, 191 1,230 64.1 64.; 64.! 3,513 3,406 3,418 3,816 4,349 3,999 6,425 6,307 6,438 7,265 8, 154 8,006 1,334 1,286 1,363 1,629 1,722 1,766 64. 64. 64. 64. 64. 64. 937 61. i 61.1 62. 62. I 63.^ 64. ! Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 1979: June. July. Aug. SeptOct.. Nov. Dec. 163, 469 163, 685 163, 891 164, 106 164, 468 164, 682 164, 898 97, 917 98, 891 98, 226 97, 576 98, 158 97, 943 98, 047 6,235 6, 104 6,137 5,798 5,781 5,776 5, 836 104, 552 105, 175 105, 218 105, 586 105, 688 105, 744 106, 088 102, 103, 103, 103, 103, 103, 103, 476 093 128 494 595 652 999 96, 652 97, 184 97, 004 97, 504 97, 474 97, 608 97, 912 1980: Jan.. Feb-_ Mar._ Apr__ May . June. 165, 101 165, 298 165, 506 165, 693 165, 886 166, 105 96, 145 96, 264 96, 546 96, 566 96, 709 97, 776 7,043 6,993 6,805 6,846 7,318 8,291 106, 310 106, 346 106, 184 106, 511 107, 230 106, 634 104, 104, 104, 104, 105, 104, 229 260 094 419 142 542 97, 804 97, 953 97, 656 97, 154 96, 988 96, 537 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. * Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. •Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of 64.; 64. 64.: 64. revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force an to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1] 65-659 0 - 8 0 - 3 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In June the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.7 percent from 7.8 percent in May. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 20 15 TEENAGERS (16-19) 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1976 1977 1978 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1979 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period 1974 1975.. 1976 ..... 1977 1978 1979 _. __ 1979: June ... umj July Aue Sept. . Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb ... Mar Apr ]^lay June — . . - Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By selected groups By race By sex and age Total (all civilian workers) Men 20 years and over 5.6 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 3.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 4. 1 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 7.7 Women 20 years and over 12 ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Household and and other salary heads workers workers Parttime workers 3.3 5.8 5. 1 4.5 3.7 3.6 5.1 8. 1 7.3 6.5 5.5 5.3 8.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.0 8.7 6.1 9.1 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 8.6 8.3 8.8 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.7 7.6 7.4 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.6 7.5 7.4 8.7 8. 9 8.3 8.9 9.3 8.8 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.5 8.8 8.3 Both sexes 16-19 years White 5.5 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.7 16.0 19.9 19.0 17.7 16.3 16. 1 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 5. 1 9.9 13.9 13. 1 13. 1 11.9 11.3 5.3 8.2 7.3 6.6 5.6 5.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 5.7 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.7 15.4 15.8 16.6 16.2 16.4 15.9 16,0 4.9 5.0 5.3 5. 1 5.1 5.1 5.1 11. 2 11.0 11.0 10.8 11.5 10.9 11.3 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.9 6.6 6.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.6 6.5 16.3 16. 5 15.9 16.2 19.2 18.5 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.9 6.8 11.8 11.5 11.8 12. 6 13.9 13.6 i Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. Labor force time lost (percent) * Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In June, the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers rose, while the percentage who were job leavers, reentrants, and new entrants fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 40 40 5-14 WEEKS REENTRANTS ^/A^-'v^y 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 1 - 15-26 WEEKS V \*V 1 \*'r JOB LEAVERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER * SEASONALLY 111 I II I 1 1 1 II 1 1976 1978 1977 1979 1980 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent distribution of unemployment by reason J Period Unemployment (thousands) Job losers 7,830 7,288 6,855 6,047 5,963 5,824 5,909 6,124 5,990 6,121 6,044 6,087 6,425 6,307 6,438 7,265 8, 154 8,006 55.4 49. 8 45. 2 41.5 42.8 41.9 43. 1 44. 0 43. 7 44. 5 45.4 44. 3 46.9 45.9 47.3 49.8 52.5 56.3 ReenJob leavers trants Percent distribution of unemployment by duration l New entrants Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over 10.4 12. 1 13.7 14.3 13.4 13.4 12.4 12.2 13.3 13. 1 12.3 13.9 12.7 13. 1 12.5 10.3 10.8 10.5 37.0 38. 3 41.7 46.2 48. 1 49.3 48.4 52.0 46.6 48.3 48.8 47.7 49. 6 47. 1 45.9 45. 1 46.7 41.6 31. 3 29.6 30.5 31.0 31.7 31.0 33.2 28. 5 34. 1 32. 1 31. 3 32.2 29. 7 32. 7 33.2 32.6 32.5 36.4 16.5 13.8 13. 1 12.3 11.5 11.2 10.6 10. 8 10.8 11. 1 11. 0 11.6 12.4 12.4 11.9 13.0 12.2 12.8 15.2 18.3 14.8 10.5 8.7 8.5 7.8 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.9 8.5 8.4 7.8 9.0 9.2 8.5 9.2 State programs Insured unemployment, all Insured unem- Initial regular proploy- claims grams 2 ment (unadjusted) Special unemployment benefit8 claims (unadjusted) Weekly average, thousands 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1979: June.. July.. Aug — Sept.. Oct... Nov_. Dec... 1980: Jan.__ Feb... Mar.. Apr... May.. June.. 10. 4 12.2 13.0 14. 1 14.3 14.7 14.4 14. 4 13.7 13.6 14. 1 13.0 12.2 12. 8 12.2 12. 8 12. 1 10. 9 23.8 26. 0 28. 1 30.0 29.5 30.0 30. 1 29. 4 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.8 28.2 28.2 28.0 27. 1 24.6 22.2 * Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. »Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 3,986 2,991 2,655 2,359 2,460 2,320 2,407 2,492 2,488 2,540 2,643 2,631 2,729 2, 685 2,857 3,204 3,717 4,009 478 386 375 346 388 380 390 394 394 402 405 416 414 389 455 574 642 617 4,937 3,846 3,308 2,645 2,619 2,119 2,429 2,377 2, 164 2,236 2,559 3,047 3,740 3,730 3,652 3,629 3,680 3,799 1,173 1,152 572 s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell 514fOOO in June. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 22 90 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 20 1976 1979 1977 1976 1980 1977 1978 1979 1980 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries U __.!_. j Jrerlod Total nonagricultural employ- Total * ment Construction Trans- Whole- Finance Government portainsur4.* sale tion ance, Service and Total State Nonand and retail Federal and durable Total Durable real public trade goods goods local estate utilitie Manufacturing 1974. 1975. _. 1976 1977 1978. _ _ 1979 78, 265 76, 945 79, 382 82, 471 86, 697 89, 886 24, 794 22, 600 23, 352 24, 346 25, 585 26, 504 4, 020 3, 525 3, 576 3,851 4, 229 4, 483 20, 077 18, 323 18, 997 19, 682 20, 505 21, 062 11, 925 10, 688 11, 077 11, 597 12, 274 12, 772 8, 152 7, 635 7, 920 8, 086 8, 231 8, 290 53 471 54, 345 56, 030 58, 125 61, 113 63, 382 4, 725 4, 542 4, 582 4, 713 4, 923 5, 141 16, 987 17, 060 17, 755 18, 516 19, 542 20, 269 4, 148 4, 165 4, 271 4,467 4, 724 4, 974 13, 441 13, 892 14, 551 15, 303 16, 252 17, 078 2, 724 2,748 2,733 2, 727 2,753 2, 773 11, 446 11, 937 12, 138 12, 399 12, 919 13, 147 1979: June__ July-Aug__ Sept__ Get— Nov__ Dec— 89, 909 90, 054 90, 222 90, 283 90, 441 90, 552 90, 678 26, 557 26, 582 26, 528 26, 554 26, 554 26, 504 26, 590 4,472 4,491 4,499 4,507 4,529 4,553 4,615 21, 132 21, 128 21, 055 21, 071 21, 043 20, 966 20, 983 12, 837 12, 841 12, 782 12, 822 12, 764 12, 693 12, 706 8,295 8,287 8,273 8, 249 8,279 8,273 8, 277 63, 352 63,472 63, 694 63, 729 63, 887 64, 048 64, 088 5, 168 5, 156 5, 182 5, 185 5,203 5,216 5,212 20, 217 20, 254 20, 301 20, 352 20, 414 20, 479 20, 448 4,970 4,989 5,019 5,017 5,033 5,049 5,064 17, 074 17, 114 17, 152 17, 192 17, 264 7,308 7,362 2,783 2,784 2,811 2,762 2,769 2,773 2,773 13, 140 13, 175 13, 229 13, 221 13, 204 13, 223 13, 229 1980: Jan— Feb... Mar__ Apr May »_ June »_ 91, 031 91, 186 91, 144 90, 951 90, 602 90, 088 26, 715 26, 623 26, 476 26, 121 25, 746 25, 367 4,745 4,659 4,529 4,467 4,441 4,377 20, 971 20, 957 20, 938 20, 642 20, 282 19, 969 12, 681 12, 715 12, 707 12, 442 12, 139 11, 905 8,290 64, 316 8, 242 64, 563 8, 231 64, 668 8,200 4, 830 8, 143 4,856 8, 064 4, 721 5,202 20, 529 5, 198 0,637 5,202 0, 610 5, 178 0,531 5, 162 0,496 5, 143 0,422 5,091 5, 101 5, 115 5, 119 5, 139 5, 153 7,462 7,540 7,580 7,618 7,668 7,618 2, 791 2,826 2,886 3, 115 3, 094 3,077 13, 241 13, 261 13, 275 13, 269 13, 297 13, 308 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 3 Includes mining, not shown separately. NOTE.—Annual data revised beginning 1977; seasonally adjusted data, beginning 1975. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural l Period Manufacturing Overtime Total private nonagricultural l Manufacturing Total Adjusted hourly earnings index2 —total private nonagricultural Percent change from a year earlier 4 Index, 1967=100 Current dollars 1967 dollars s Current dollars 1967 dollars 36.9 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36. 1 36. 0 35.8 35.6 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 $3.45 3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 $3.57 3.82 4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.69 129.2 137. 5 146.0 157. 5 170.6 183.0 196.8 212.9 229.8 106. 5 109.7 109.7 106.7 105.9 107.3 108.4 109.0 105.6 7.0 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.3 7.3 7.5 8.2 7.9 2.6 3.0 0 -2.7 -.7 1.3 1.0 .6 -3.1 1979: June July . J Aug Sept.. Oct Nov Dec 35.6 35.6 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.7 40. 1 40. 1 40. 1 40. 1 40.1 40. 1 40.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 6. 13 6. 17 6.22 6.26 6.28 6.34 6.39 6.69 6.73 6.75 6.79 6.82 6.87 6.91 229. 1 230.8 232.2 234.2 234.9 237.2 239.4 105. 9 105.5 105. 1 104.9 104. 1 104.1 103.8 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.2 7.7 8.2 8.3 -2.9 -3.3 -3.5 -3.7 -4.2 —4. 1 -4.4 1980: Jan Feb Mar. Apr v May June » 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.3 35. 1 35.0 40.3 40. 1 39.8 39.8 39.3 39.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.4 6.41 6. 45 6.51 6.54 6.57 6.63 6.93 6.99 7.06 7.11 7.15 7.20 240.4 242.5 245.3 246.2 248.2 250.7 102.7 102.3 102.0 101.4 101.3 101.4 7.9 8.2 8.9 8.5 9.1 9.4 -5.3 -5.2 -5.0 -5.3 -4.7 -4.2 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 - - AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Period Total private nonagricultural l Current dollars 1971 __ _ 1972 _ __ 1973 1974 1975 . 1976 ___ 1977 1978 1979 1979: June_ July Aug Sept » _ Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb _ Mar _ Apr May P June 9 1 2 $127. 31 136. 90 145. 39 154. 76 163. 53 175. 45 189. 00 203. 70 219. 30 218. 23 219. 65 222. 05 222. 86 223. 57 225. 70 228. 12 228. 20 228. 98 230. 45 230. 86 230. 61 232. 05 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 3 $104. 95 109. 26 109. 23 104. 78 101. 45 102. 90 104. 13 104.30 100. 73 100. 85 100. 43 100. 52 99.76 99. 10 99.03 98.88 97.52 96.53 95. 82 95. 08 94.16 93.91 $142. 44 154. 71 166. 46 176. 80 190. 79 209. 32 228. 90 249. 27 268. 94 268. 27 269. 87 270. 68 272. 28 273. 48 275. 49 277. 78 279. 28 280. 30 280. 99 282. 98 281. 00 281. 52 $211. 67 221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 73 295. 65 318. 69 342. 99 342. 61 342. 80 348. 01 352. 13 345. 92 350. 76 355. 26 352. 86 357. 64 356. 85 359. 29 361. 38 365. 19 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Current dollars Current dollars Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Construction Wholesale and retail trade $101. 09 106. 45 111. 76 119. 02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 52 153. 64 164. 96 164. 63 165. 28 166. 59 167. 24 167. 89 169. 52 170. 50 172. 13 172. 04 173. 45 172. 16 173. 98 174. 17 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.1 7.2 7.6 7.9 6.9 7.2 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.6 8.2 6.4 6.4 1967 dollars 1.9 4.1 -.0 -4.1 -3.2 1.4 1.2 .2 -3.4 -3.6 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -4.9 -4.9 -5.3 -6.2 -6.5 -7.0 -5.6 -7.0 -6.9 s Based on unadjusted data. NOTE.—Annual data revised beginning 1978; seasonally adjusted data, beginning 1975. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR Hours of 2all persons Output i Period Output per hour of all persons Compensation per hour 3 Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 4 NonPriNonPriPriNonNonNonPrivate Private NonPrivate farm vate vate farm farm farm farm vate farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector 1967=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 100. 0 105. 1 108.3 100.0 105. 3 108.5 100.0 101.7 104.5 100.0 102.0 105.4 100.0 103.3 103.6 100.0 103. 2 103.0 100. 0 107.6 115. 0 100.0 107.4 114. 2 100.0 104. 1 111.0 100.0 104.0 110.9 100. 0 103. 9 108.8 100.0 104.0 108.7 107.3 110.3 117.5 124.4 121.4 107.4 110.2 117.8 124.9 121.8 102.8 102.3 105.4 109.5 110.2 104.0 103. 6 107.0 111.5 112.2 104.4 107.8 111.5 113.6 110.2 103. 2 106.4 110. 1 112.0 108. 6 123. 3 131.6 139.8 151.3 165.2 121.9 130. 1 138.4 149. 2 163.0 118.2 122.0 125.4 133.2 149.8 118. 1 122,3 125.7 133.2 150. 1 113.9 118.9 123. 2 130.3 143. 1 114.0 119.2 122.9 127.9 141.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 118.7 126.4 133. 8 140.7 144.1 118.8 126.9 134.3 141.5 144.9 105. 4 108.4 112.7 118.0 121.8 107.2 110.8 115.4 121.0 125. 3 112.6 116.6 118.7 119. 3 118.3 110. 7 114.6 116.4 116.9 115.7 181.7 197.6 213.3 231.4 253. 1 179.3 194.2 209.6 227.5 247. 9 161.3 169. 5 179. 7 194.0 214.0 161.9 169.5 180. 1 194. 6 214.4 157.5 165.5 174. 8 187.2 203.8 156.4 164.8 174.5 186. 1 202. 1 1978: III IV . 141.8 144.0 142. 7 145.0 118. 4 120. 2 121.6 123. 3 119.7 119.8 117.4 117.6 233. 7 238.4 229. 5 234.4 195.2 199.0 195.6 199.3 188.9 192.9 187.8 191.4 1979: I_ _ II _ III IV 144.4 143.4 143.8 144.8 145.5 144.2 144.6 145.5 121. 5 121.3 122. 0 123. 0 124.8 124.9 125.7 126. 2 118.9 118.3 117.8 117.7 116.6 115.4 115.0 115.2 244.8 250.4 255.7 260.3 240. 2 244.9 249.9 255.6 205.9 211. 7 217.0 221. 1 206.0 212. 1 217.3 221.8 197.2 202.0 206. 1 209.7 195.1 200.3 204.7 208.4 1980: I 144.8 140. 1 145.6 140.7 123. 1 120.0 126.7 123.7 117.7 116. 7 114.9 113. 7 267.6 275.3 262. 2 269.0 227.5 235.8 228. 2 236. 6 214.5 220.4 213.7 220. 3 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 ____ _ HP Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2. 0 5. 1 3.0 1.9 5.3 3.0 -0.0 1.7 2.7 0.3 2.0 3.3 2.0 3.3 .2 1.6 3.2 -. 2 5.3 7.6 6.9 5.4 7.4 6.4 3.3 4. 1 6.6 3.8 4.0 6.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 3.3 4.0 4.5 -.9 2.8 6.6 5.9 —2.4 -1. 1 2.6 6.9 6.0 -2.5 -1.6 -.5 3. 1 3.9 .6 -1.3 —.4 3.2 4.2 .6 .7 3.3 3.4 1.9 —3.0 .2 3.0 3.6 1.7 -3. 1 7.2 6.7 6.2 8.2 9.2 6.8 6.7 6.4 7.8 9.2 6.4 3. 3 2.8 6.2 12.5 6.5 3.5 2.7 6.0 12.7 4.7 4.4 3. 6 5.8 9. 8 4.9 4.5 3. 1 4. 1 10.5 __ -2.3 6.5 5.8 5.2 2.4 -2.5 6.9 5.8 5.4 2.4 -4.3 2.9 3.9 4.7 3.3 — 4.4 3.3 4.2 4. 9 3.5 2.1 3.5 1.8 .5 -. 8 2.0 3.5 1.5 .5 -1. 1 10.0 8.8 8.0 8.5 9.4 10.0 8.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 7.7 5.0 6.0 8.0 10.3 7.9 4.7 6.3 8.0 10.2 10. 1 5.0 5.6 7. 1 8.9 10.6 5.4 5. 9 6.6 8.6 1978: III IV _. 4.2 6.4 4.5 6.8 2.0 6. 1 2. 1 6.0 2. 1 .3 2.4 .7 8.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 6.6 8. 1 5.9 7.9 6. 9 8.7 7.0 7.8 1979: I__ II III IV 1. 2 -2.9 1. 1 2.8 1. 2 -3.6 1.2 2.5 4. 5 -.9 2.5 3. 1 4.7 .4 2.7 1.7 -3. 1 -2. 0 -1.4 -.3 -3.3 -3.9 -1.5 .8 11.0 9. 5 8.7 7.5 10. 2 8. 1 8. 5 9.5 14. 6 11.8 10. 3 7.8 14. 0 12. 5 10. 1 8.6 9.3 10. 1 8.3 7.2 8. 1 11.0 9.0 7.4 1980: I II p .2 -12.5 .2 -12.8 .5 -9.7 1.3 -9. 1 -.3 -3. 1 -1. 1 -4. 1 11. 7 12. 0 10. 7 10. 8 12. 1 15. 5 12. 0 15.6 9.4 11. 5 10. 6 13.0 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971- _ 1972 1973 1974 1975— 1976 1977___ 1978 1979 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. s Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and 4 supplemental payments for the self-employed. Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 2 16 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production declined 2.4 percent in June, following revised decreases of 2.4 percent in May and 2.2 in April. The June index was 7.5 percent below its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100* 160 (RATIO SCALE) * INDEX, 1967=100* -TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION- (RATIO SCALE) 180 -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION- 160 140 UTILITIES 140 120 120 100 I I I I II I I HI 1976 1977 1978 1979 MINING 1980 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 100 1976 1977 1978 NONDURABLE 1979 1980 PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 80 120 70 100 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1976 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 ipTO'Dortion 1973 1974... __ 1975 1976 1977 . 1978__ ... _ 1979 Total industrial production Percent Index, 1967= change from 100 year earlier 100 00 8.4 129. 8 _. 4 129.3 117.8 -8.9 10.8 130. 5 138.2 5.9 5.7 146.1 4.2 152. 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted) Industry production indexes, 1967 = 100 Manufacturing Utilities Manufacturing capacityl utilization rate, percent Federal Reserve series WharComTotal ton merce2 Matemanuseries * series rials facturing Total Durable Nondurable 87.95 129.8 129.4 116. 3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.2 51.98 127. 1 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.3 35.97 133.8 134.6 126.4 141.8 150. 5 156.9 163.3 6.36 114 7 115.3 112.8 114 2 118.2 124.0 125. 3 5.69 145.4 143.7 146. 0 151.7 156. 5 161.4 166. 1 87.6 83.8 72.9 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 91.8 87. 1 73.4 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.2 86 83 77 81 83 84 83 93.0 90.3 79.5 85.6 88.2 91. 1 92.7 83 92. S 82 92.4 81 91. £ 80 91.4 Mining Dec . 152. 6 152.8 151.6 152. 4 152.2 152. 1 152.2 4.4 3.9 2. 4 2.6 1.7 1.0 .3 153.9 154. 1 152.4 153.5 153.2 153. 0 152.8 147.6 147. 2 144. 2 145.9 145.7 145.0 144. 5 163.0 164. 1 164 3 1646 164.0 164 5 1647 123.9 1247 126.4 125. 8 128. 1 130. 0 131.6 1642 164.8 165.5 165. 3 166. 1 167. 4 167.0 86.2 86. 1 849 85. 3 84.9 84.6 843 87.6 87. 9 86.9 86.8 86.6 86.4 86.0 1980* Jan Feb Mar Apr IVIav " June v 152.6 152. 3 151.7 148.3 144. 7 141.2 .7 .2 153.4 152.7 151.9 148.2 144.2 140. 3 1447 144. 1 143. 3 138.7 134.2 130.0 166. 1 165. 1 1644 161.8 158.6 155. 1 132. 6 132.8 132.9 133.6 133.4 132.9 163.9 166. 1 169.6 166. 1 165.9 165.7 844 83.8 83. 1 80. 8 78. 4 76. 1 86.0 85.4 849 82.4 79.5 76.5 1979: June . .. _ Tnlv An0" Sept Ont . Q & -1.7 -5. 1 -7.5 » Output as percent of capacity. ' Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. s Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Products Final Products Total NonDurable durable goods goods 7.89 19.79 110. 1 106.1 113. 1 118.8 120.6 133.8 146.2 125.6 126.3 135.3 125. 1 121.4 135.2 141.9 141.9 154.0 159.2 145.1 155.5 148.5 149. 1 158.6 148.2 157.2 148.5 147. 5 148.9 151.8 152.6 uae 148.7 149. 2 149.2 146. 6 142.4 150.5 150. 1 1445 144.0 149.3 148.3 136.6 129.4 146.8 145.5 128.2 Total 1967 proportion 1970 .. 1971 1972 19731974 1975 1976_ 1977 1978 1979 1979: June July Aue .. Sept . * Oct No v Dec 1980: Jan.. Feb Mar . Apr. May » June 9 A»A«IJ Equipment Consumer goods Period . —_ __ 47.82 105.3 106.3 115.7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.0 147.6 147. 1 145.6 147.2 146.8 146.6 147. 0 147. 0 147.4 147.1 145.0 142.7 140.8 27.68 109.0 114.7 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 137. 1 145.3 149.1 150.5 151.8 150.8 148.2 149.7 149.7 148.9 148.5 148.2 148.5 147.8 144.9 141. 9 140.6 Intermediate products Total Business Total 20. 14 100. 1 947 103. 8 1145 120.0 110.2 1146 123.0 132.8 142.2 141.9 142.1 141. 8 143.9 142.9 143.6 145.0 145. 4 146.0 146.1 145.2 143.8 141.2 12.68 107.0 104. 1 118.0 1342 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160. 3 171.3 171.5 171.4 171.5 173.6 172. 0 172.5 1741 175.0 175.8 175.9 1743 172. 3 168.3 12.89 112.9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145. 1 154 1 160.0 159.5 159.4 160. 6 159.8 159.8 159. 8 159.9 160.8 159.3 157.7 151.5 146.8 142.3 Construction supplies 6.42 111.0 116.8 128.4 139.8 1345 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 156.9 156.3 156.4 157.3 156.3 156.8 156.7 156.0 156.4 1543 152.4 141.3 1346 128. 5 Materials 89. 29 109.2 111.3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156. 0 156.5 157.6 156.0 156.3 156.3 156.4 156.2 156.7 155.9 155.4 151.2 146. 4 141.3 Supplementary group: Energy total 12.28 117.0 119.5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.8 137.2 137.1 136.8 136.8 137.2 139.0 138. 1 137.8 139.0 139.6 137.6 137.0 135.7 [1967 ==100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period 1967 proportion 1970... 1971 1972. . 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979.. 1979: June. July. . Aue Sept Oct . Nov Dec . 1980: Jan . . Feb.. Mar Apr v May ±_«,j . June p Total Iron and steel 6.67 106.6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 109.7 111. 1 119.9 121.2 124 3 127. 1 121.0 121.7 118.0 117. 2 115.4 116.4 111.9 113.6 106.9 98.0 90.4 4.21 1047 96. 1 107.1 122. 3 119.8 95.8 1048 103.8 113.2 113.2 118. 1 119.0 112.0 115.0 108.2 108. 0 106.6 107.2 103.4 106.0 97.4 842 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 6.98 102. 4 103.5 112.1 1247 1242 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 149.3 149.3 147.6 146.5 147.5 146. 9 146. 1 145.0 145.3 144. 7 141.9 136. 1 130.6 9.16 1044 100.2 116.0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 134.5 143. 6 153.6 163.6 164.5 165.3 166. 2 165. 1 162.3 162. 8 162.9 166.9 166. 1 166.0 163.3 161.9 157.5 8. 06 108. 1 107.7 122.2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 175.1 1744 171.7 176.7 177.3 179.5 181.2 181.7 179.7 179.5 177.3 172.0 165.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts 9. 27 89.5 97.9 108. 2 118. 3 108.7 97.4 111. 1 122.2 132.5 135.3 139.4 135.5 1247 131.7 133.7 128.2 125.9 122. 4 126. 2 124.3 1149 110.3 109.0 4.60 92.3 118.6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 142.0 161. 1 169.9 160.0 169.6 160. 2 138. 5 150.6 150.6 139.9 135.4 127.6 135.4 131.7 115.0 106.6 106.9 Lumber and products Apparel products Print- Cheming icals Foods and and pub- prodlishing ucts 1.64 3.31 101.4 104 7 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 130. 7 132.0 129.7 130. 1 131.2 128.5 128. 8 128.3 127.2 128.0 128.0 126.0 4. 72 107.0 107. 1 112.7 118.2 118. 2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 136. 9 135.6 137.7 137. 1 137.2 136. 2 137.8 138.9 139.9 139.2 136.5 135.5 134. 0 105.6 113.8 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 123. 2 131.2 136.3 136. 9 136.8 135.2 138.0 138.6 138.7 136. 1 131.7 131.6 130.2 125.4 106.5 100.6 7. 74 120. 4 125.9 143. 6 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 210.4 207.8 210.5 213. 1 212.0 211.4 215. 1 216.5 217.7 216.0 214.5 210.2 204.7 8.76 108.9 112.8 116.8 120. 9 1240 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.9 149.5 149.4 148. 1 148.8 148.6 148.3 148.9 150.0 150.2 150.3 149.0 149.3 NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction contracts1 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total Total1 Commercial and industrial New housing units Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1972= 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1973.... 1974 1975.. . 1976 1977 1978 1979- . 137.9 138. 5 134.5 151. 1 174.0 205.5 229.0 105.4 100.2 93.7 111.9 135.8 159.6 179.9 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 50.1 40.6 344 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 21.7 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 24.0 25.9 26.4 31.5 32.4 36.6 41.0 32.5 38.3 40.9 39. 1 38.2 45.9 49. 0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov ___ Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar » Apr vv _ _ May A J 223.0 225.7 231.0 231.6 235.3 239. 9 239.4 244. 0 259.6 248. 8 237. 1 226.6 218. 5 175.3 179. 0 181.3 182. 0 184.3 187. 3 187.4 191.2 198. 1 191.7 180.6 172. 4 165.7 96.2 97.7 98.5 98.9 100.4 101.5 101.8 102. 1 105.8 101.5 94. 0 84.5 78.4 76.8 78.4 79.0 79.3 80.4 79.9 79.0 78.5 80.7 75.1 68.4 60.7 55. 1 i Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. > F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 38.8 40.3 41.4 40.3 41. 1 42.9 43.5 45. 3 47.4 46.4 43.8 44.5 43.8 109.2 103.0 101.9 121. 0 153.6 174. 1 182.9 40.2 41.0 41.4 42.8 42.9 42.9 42.0 43.8 44.9 43.8 42.8 43.4 43.6 47.7 46.7 49.7 49.6 50.9 52.6 52.0 52.9 61.5 57.0 56.5 54.2 52.8 178 177 181 163 185 171 156 183 190 171 155 130 125 1,010 840 555 592 739 977 1,050 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1,045 1,009 1,062 1,006 1,106 1,118 1,010 969 1,253 1,026 994 875 753 NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data; series revised beginning 1977. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 . 1979 . Total 1 unit 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1,987.1 2, 020. 3 1, 745. 1 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 1, 433. 3 1, 194. 1 2-4 units 141.3 118.3 68. 1 640 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 5 or more units 906.2 795.0 381.6 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 New private homes Homes for sale at end of period * Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 Units authorized Units completed 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939.2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 800. 5 1, 551. 8 2, 003. 9 2, 100. 5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 1, 867. 5 1, 870. 8 718 634 519 549 646 819 817 709 409 418 346 313 353 402 414 3 398 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.3 1,837 1,776 1,747 1,963 1,819 1,831 1,880 1,787 1,832 1,669 1,891 1,535 698 768 738 716 674 617 571 584 548 458 350 488 418 416 414 412 407 399 398 396 384 379 366 350 5.3 Homes sold Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: June. July Aug Sept Oct.. Nov _. Dec___ 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr v_ May v June v A 1 _ 1,910 1,764 1,788 1,874 1,710 1,522 1,548 1,419 1,330 1,041 1, 030 913 1, 191 1,276 1,222 1,237 1,237 1,139 980 1,055 1,002 786 617 628 628 747 Seasonally adjusted. *8 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. New series beginning March 1970. 123 130 152 123 129 114 110 127 101 91 100 86 67 511 412 399 514 442 428 383 290 443 333 302 199 377 1,639 1,563 1,622 1,695 1,478 1,287 1,247 1,271 1, 168 968 789 825 1,059 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.4 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1972-77 are for 14,000 places and for 1971, for 13,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sdes fell 1 percent in May while inventories were virtually unchanged from their April level. Accordins to the advance survey, retail sales rose 1 % percent in June following declines of 1 percent in May and 2 percent in April. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 130 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 550 120 500 110 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 450 RETAIL INVENTORIES 100 400 90 350 80 300 70 RETAIL SALES 60 250 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 50 200 40 RATIO* 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 150 100 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1976 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business * Retail Wholesale Sales2 Period Sales > Inventoriess Inven-3 Sales ' tories Total Inventories 8 DurNonable durable Total goods goods stores stores Dur- Nonable durable goods goods stores stores Inventory-sales ratio 4 Total business J Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1972 . 130, 049 1973 _ _ 152, 237 1974 175, 741 1975 _ 180, 263 1976 _ 202, 001 1977 224, 786 1978 254, 297 1979 288, 449 1979: May . . 286, 413 June 283, 772 July 289, 993 MA j Aug . 293, 167 Sept . 296, 775 Get 298, 619 Nov _ 299, 154 Dec .. . 302, 386 1980: Jan __ 312, 730 Feb 310, 571 Mar_.__ 305, 657 Apr 295, 277 May v . 291, 962 June 203, 161 234, 162 285, 518 285, 035 310, 736 337, 432 380, 643 427, 040 401, 945 406, 720 413, 581 417, 324 418, 588 423, 037 426, 190 427, 040 431, 815 435, 321 439, 325 445, 528 445, 385 29, 584 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 62, 842 73, 611 72, 338 72, 629 74, 778 75, 588 76, 495 77, 489 78, 407 78, 947 81, 178 79, 689 79, 042 76, 670 76, 182 39, 786 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 80, 771 89, 920 84, 904 85, 406 87, 662 88, 474 88, 499 89, 146 89, 324 89, 920 91, 085 91, 508 91, 708 92, 736 92, 376 37, 422 42, 461 45, 083 49, 013 54, 784 60, 435 66, 741 73, 837 72, 292 72, 093 73, 121 74, 871 76, 666 75, 583 76, 421 77, 150 79, 464 77, 993 76, 534 75, Oil 74, 265 75, 345 » The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). * Monthly average for year and total for month. « Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 20 12, 369 14. 409 14, 118 15, 247 18, 150 20, 724 23, 458 25, 680 25, 319 24, 718 25, 247 26, 137 27, 048 25, 656 25, 679 25, 943 27, 268 26, 369 24, 296 22, 821 22, 537 23, 095 25, 054 28, 052 30, 965 33, 766 36, 633 39, 711 43, 283 48, 158 46, 973 47, 375 47, 874 48, 734 49, 618 49, 927 50, 742 51, 207 52, 196 51, 624 52, 238 52, 190 51, 728 52, 250 55, 079 24, 238 63, 237 28, 418 71, 067 32, 861 71, 744 33, 356 79, 273 37, 841 89, 210 42, 970 101, 538 50, 100 108, 862 53, 087 106,160 53, 611 107,372 54, 413 109,799 55, 829 110,181 55, 876 108,748 54, 068 110,415 54, 523 110,383 54, 415 108,862 53, 087 108, 436 52, 130 108, 717 52, 232 109, 095 52, 276 110, 252 52, 490 109, 607 51, 666 30, 841 34, 819 38, 206 38, 388 41, 432 46, 240 51, 438 55, 775 52,549 52,959 53,970 54,305 54,680 55,892 55,968 55,775 56, 306 56, 485 56, 819 57, 762 57, 941 1.50 1.43 1.47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.43 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.42 1. 42 1.41 1.38 1.40 1.44 1.51 1.53 1.40 1.40 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.47 1.42 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.36 1. 39 1.43 1.47 1.48 sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS Manufacturers* shipments and new orders continued to fall in May, while inventories rose. According to advance data, durable goods new orders and shipments fell again in June. BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 180 SHIPMENTS 160 ~ - 3nirmtm 3 TOTAL 140 \^\^v 120 ^ ^xl 100 ^—^ DURABLE GO DOS 80 \^. < r^v. ~ _ - 120 ..^-" 60 — »**"'*""%~<C- - ;> BULKDNS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 - INVENTORIES TOTAL 200 \ -->--^ — —"-~~~-—— 160 • .... ---*"" 100 - 1 1111111111 I 1 1111 1111 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 BULKDNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO S<IALE) 180 NFW UKULK ORDFR^ 160 ~ NLW TOTAL **»\Jr~~~*-~*' 140 ^ \—^^ 120 ~ ^1 ' ^ rv .~s'~ .s**~"~ ""V^~^x- K ^ 60 ^ * -•— s* •**' A .__.—•—*" • , ,,, i I n . . , ~X - ^""~\ NONDURABL E GOODS 1977 1976 1978 1978 1.8 . .. f ^^"""—^ ^-^_ -J*~^ ^/ ^ "v^r ^~ 1979 1.2 i n ii In in 1980 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 M 11 1976 1977 1 M 1 1 I 1 1 1 11 1978 2 72, 954 84, 821 86, 617 98, 810 110,842 124, 714 141, 000 39, 703 44, 253 43, 678 50, 697 58, 010 66, 505 73, 981 33, 251 40, 568 42, 939 48, 113 52, 832 58, 210 67, 019 Durable goods Capital Nongoods Durable Total Total indusgoods durable Total goods tries, nondefense Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 124, 672 81, 426 43, 245 76, 183 42, 853 11, 089 157, 915 101, 866 56, 048 87, 157 46, 740 12, 737 158, 178 101, 766 56, 412 85, 082 41, 957 10, 772 170, 156 109, 095 61, 061 99, 184 51, 047 12, 501 180, 224 115, 751 64, 472 112,451 59, 562 15, 084 198, 334 129, 456 68, 878 128, 488 70, 145 18, 308 228, 258 151,689 76, 569 144, 335 77, 215 21, 643 1979: June- 139, 050 July.. 142, 094 Aug_. 142, 708 Sept.. 143, 614 Oct... 145, 547 Nov.. 144, 326 Dec... 146, 289 72, 797 73, 875 74, 363 74, 201 75, 544 73, 751 74,191 66, 253 68, 220 68, 345 69, 414 70, 003 70, 574 72, 098 213, 942 216, 120 218, 669 221, 341 223, 476 226, 483 228, 258 141, 480 143, 141 144, 658 146, 048 148, 136 150, 476 151, 689 72, 462 72, 979 74, Oil 75, 293 75, 340 76, 007 76, 569 142, 386 142, 620 143, 615 147, 378 146, 610 146, 996 149, 232 76, 028 74, 585 74, 762 77, 647 76, 521 75, 903 77, 199 1980: Jan... 152, 088 Feb.- 152, 889 Mar__ 150, 081 Apr___ 143, 596 May.. 141, 515 June P. 77, 948 79, 159 75, 925 72, 207 69, 443 68, 240 74, 140 73, 730 74, 156 71, 389 72, 072 232, 294 235, 096 238, 522 242, 540 243, 402 154, 043 155, 314 157, 127 159, 877 160, 607 78, 251 79, 782 81, 395 82, 663 82, 795 155, 588 154, 603 152, 065 143, 313 138, 920 81, 467 81, 021 77, 546 72, 416 67,328 65, 423 NonDurable durable goods goods ' Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. » Book value, end of period. 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 M 11 1980 Manufacturers' new orders 1 I 1973. 1974. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 i i i i i I i i iM 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments * Manufacturers' inventories Total iiiiiliini 1980 1979 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period - 10 1.6 , , , , , ! , , , , , , , , , , ! , , , , , mi,!. , , . , 1977 - M I 1 I I I I M 1 Ill M i l l M l 1.4 1976 - RAT 0* 12 40 ,,,,,!,,,,, - NONDURA kBLE GOODS - - DURABLE C OODS 80 ••»•* 40 _~^~ 100 •«•**** - —r 60 I M I I 1 1 1 1 I I - 80 - 40 »••" "^ DURABLE GC ODS - "•"~"\ NONDURA HE GOODS ..... - ~~~m~~ _^q , ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly M facNon- turers' durable unfilled3 goods orders Manufacturers1 inventory— shipments4 ratio 33, 330 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 52, 889 58, 344 67, 120 159, 468 187, 574 169, 126 173, 646 193, 561 239, 321 279, 710 1. 58 1. 65 1.83 1. 66 1. 59 1. 52 1. 52 21, 704 21, 227 21, 077 21, 578 21, 073 21, 754 22, 285 66, 359 68, 035 68, 854 69, 731 70, 089 71, 092 72, 033 267, 268, 269, 273, 274, 276, 279, 837 362 269 033 097 767 710 1.54 1. 52 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.57 1.56 23, 859 21, 480 22, 590 22, 162 19, 589 19, 096 74, 121 73, 582 74, 519 70, 897 71, 592 283, 211 284, 924 286, 907 286, 629 284, 033 1.53 1. 54 1.59 1.69 1.72 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In June the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.7 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods also rose 0.7 percent. Prices of capital equipment increased 0.9 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 140 120 100 100 1980 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Intermediate Crude materials materials Total conFoodsumer Consumer goods Capistuffs Foods finished Total and 1 Other Total and Other tal NonDurfeedfeeds Total able dur- equip- goods stuffs able ment 113.4 113.2 113.6 119.5 116.6 118.7 118.5 118.9 127.6 127.5 128. 0 118.5 115. 8 120.5 123.5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 174.0 180.0 162. 5 138.6 126.3 146.8 141. 0 149.3 162.9 200.2 159. 5 196. 1 189.4 208. 9 153. 1 138.2 163. 0 162. 5 163. 6 180. 0 195.3 178.6 196.9 191.8 206. 9 161.8 144.4 173.3 173.2 169. 0 189.3 186.6 189. 5 205. 1 190. 1 233. 6 172. 1 152.2 185.4 184.5 178.9 201.7 191. 0 202.4 214.3 190.9 258.4 183.7 165.8 195.4 199. 1 192.6 215.5 201. 0 216.4 240. 1 215.3 286. 7 208. 1 181.5 225.8 216.6 215.5 242.7 223.2 243.8 282.2 247. 1 348. 3 205.3 180.6 221.7 216.4 212.0 239.7 218.0 241.0 278.4 242.9 345. 5 208.7 182.0 226.6 218.2 214.8 243.6 227.2 244. 6 284.6 250. 1 349. 7 212. 3 182.0 232.7 217.9 218.3 247. 1 229.3 248.2 285.2 248.8 354. 0 216.4 184. 7 237. 8 219.5 222.2 250.7 230.4 251. 9 291.4 252. 3 365. 4 220.4 187.7 242.6 221.4 224.8 255.0 231.2 256.5 294. 5 252.6 373. 7 222. 9 189.4 245.5 222.9 227.9 257.3 230. 5 258.9 298.4 255.2 380. 2 225.5 191. 6 248.4 224.8 229. 9 260.2 231. 1 262. 0 301.7 255. 8 388. 5 232.0 198. 1 255.0 228.4 233. 6 267.3 225. 1 269.9 299.5 246. 0 400.9 238.6 202. 1 263.2 230.0 237.6 272.6 237.6 274.7 307.5 251.3 414. 2 242.7 199.9 271.9 231.6 241.2 273.4 230. 1 276.0 300.7 244.4 407.8 246. 0 200. 3 277.3 235. 9 241.2 273.8 224.0 276. 8 290.3 229. 5 405. 8 247. 1 199. 7 279. 7 236. 0 242. 1 274. 9 237.7 277. 2 294. 1 235. 1 406. 1 248.9 202.9 280.3 238. 1 243.8 277. 1 237.7 279.5 295. 1 237.7 404.2 Finished goods excluding consumer foods Total finConished sumer goods foods Total Period 1972 . 1973. . 1974... 1975 1976 1977. _ . 1978.. _ 1979 1979: June July v. j Aug Sept Oct Nov. Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ May June _ _ 117.2 127.9 147.5 163.4 170.3 180. 6 194. 6 215.9 213.4 215.9 218.3 221. 5 223.9 226.6 228.5 232. 2 235.5 238. 6 239. 8 240. 4 242.3 121.7 146.4 166.9 181.0 180.2 189. 1 206. 7 226.3 221.3 222.8 226.2 229. 3 229. 1 233.5 234. 1 232. 0 231. 0 233.4 226.8 227. 1 228.7 115.4 120.1 139.3 156.2 165.5 176.2 188.9 210. 6 208.8 211. 6 213.7 216.9 220. 1 222.2 224. 6 230.0 234. 6 237.8 241.5 242.2 244. 1 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. 22 NOTE.—-Data revised for February 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.1 percent (1.0 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices rose 0.6 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.5 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 1.9 percent (1.8 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 280 140 120 1972 1973 1974 1977 1976 1975 1979 1978 1980 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976_ __ 1977 1978 1979__ _ All items Food Commodities less food 125. 3 133. 1 147. 7 161 2 170. 5 181 5 195. 4 217. 4 123 5 141. 4 161. 7 175 4 180. 8 192 2 211. 4 234. 5 119 4 123. 5 136. 6 149 1 156. 6 165 1 174. 7 195. 1 Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home 133 3 139. 1 152. 1 166 6 180. 4 194 3 210. 9 234. 2 120. 9 129. 9 145. 5 158. 4 165. 2 174 7 187. 1 208. 4 123. 5 141. 4 161. 7 175. 4 180. 8 192. 2 211. 4 234. 5 121. 6 141. 4 162.4 175. 8 179. 5 190. 2 210.2 232. 9 131. 1 141.4 159.4 174. 3 186. 1 200. 3 218.4 242. 9 216.6 218.9 221. 1 223.4 225.4 227.5 229.9 233.2 236.4 239. 8 242. 5 244.9 247. 6 235.4 236.9 236.3 237. 1 238.2 239. 1 241.7 243.8 244.9 247.3 249. 1 250.4 252. 0 194.7 197.0 199.5 201. 8 203.4 205.4 207.2 210.4 213.8 216.7 218. 6 220. 2 221. 4 232. 1 234. 7 237.6 240.7 243.6 246.2 249. 3 253. 1 256.8 261.3 265. 3 269.2 274. 2 207.4 209. 6 211.5 214.0 215. 8 217.9 220.4 223. 5 226. 1 228.8 230. 0 230. 8 231.6 NOTE.— Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. Services All Durable Nondurable 119.4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156. 6 165. 1 174. 7 195. 1 118. 9 121. 9 130. 6 145. 5 154.3 163.2 173. 9 191. 1 119. 8 124. 8 140. 9 151. 7 158. 3 166. 5 174.3 198.7 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 194. 3 210.9 234.2 190.0 191.5 193. 1 194.2 195.7 198.4 200. 3 202. 5 203. 5 204.0 205. 1 206. 3 207.4 197.2 201. 1 205.2 208.6 210.3 212.0 215.0 221. 8 228.4 233. 8 235. 1 235.5 235. 8 232. 6 235. 1 237.7 240. 5 243.5 246. 1 249. 5 252. 9 256.8 261. 6 265. 6 269.8 274.7 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 1979: June... July___ Aug Sept___ Oct Nov Dec..__ 1980: Jan Feb___ Mar Apr____ May. June Commodities less food Food 234. 2 235. 3 235.5 237. 9 239.8 241.4 244. 8 244. 8 244.7 247. 1 248.4 249.2 250. 5 232.4 233.0 232. 5 235.4 237. 1 238. 5 242.3 241.8 240. 9 243.5 244. 5 245. 1 246.0 242.2 244. 3 246. 1 247.5 249.9 252.0 254.4 256. 9 258.6 260. 6 262.5 263.8 266. 1 193.7 196. 2 198.7 201. 2 202.9 205. 1 207. 3 211. 5 215.2 217.9 219.0 219.8 220. 4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1077 1978 1979 Percent change from preceding period; seasonally adjusted l Percent change from 3 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates Percent change from 6 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods . 1979: June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar _ Apr May June Capital Total equip- finExclud- ment ished goods ing Foods foods Capital Total equip- finExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods Capita! equipExclud- ment Foods ing foods 3.2 3.8 11.8 18.3 6.6 3.3 6.6 9.2 12.5 5.9 8.0 22.5 13.0 5. 5 -2.5 6.6 11.9 7.5 2.0 2.0 7.4 20. 5 6.7 4.9 6.1 8.4 17.8 2.4 2.0 5.3 22. 6 8.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 .6 1.2 1. 1 1.5 1.1 1.2 .8 -1.0 .7 1.5 1.4 —. 1 1.9 .3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1. 1 1.2 .7 .81 ]7 .9 .7 .9 7.9 9.4 12.2 16. 1 15.7 16.1 13.3 -9.2 -5.2 4.9 15.3 11.8 13.5 8.6 17.2 19.3 21.0 23.4 24.4 21.5 17.9 9.4 8.1 5.5 5.9 6.0 9.5 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.8 11.9 12.5 14.1 14.7 3.5 1.9 2. 1 2.3 2.9 9. 1 11.9 15.4 16.7 18.3 20.3 21.8 21.3 20.6 9.9 9.5 7.4 7.6 7.0 7.5 7.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 .5 .3 .8 -.9 —.4 1.0 -2.8 .1 .7 2.9 2.8 1.7 1.4 .4 .7 1.6 .7 .7 1.9 .0 .9 15.7 16.7 18.9 13.7 8.6 6.3 5.2 -4.2 -1.2 -8.7 -6.6 -7.8 22.8 31.3 34.2 26.4 15. 0 10.6 13.3 13.4 12.7 13.8 10.8 11.7 15.7 16.4 16.0 14.7 12.6 12.4 8.4 4. 3 3.6 -2.0 -5.4 -4.6 23.6 26.3 25.8 24.6 22. 9 21. 8 9.6 11.4 11.3 13.5 12. 1 12.2 1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for February 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percent change from preceding period ; seasonally adjusted l Period All items Food Commodities less food Services Percent change from 3 months earlier; Percent change from 6 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates seasonally adjusted annual rates All items Food Commodities less food Services All items Food Commodities less food Services 3.4 3.4 8. 8 12. 2 7. 0 4. 8 6.8 9. 0 13. 3 4.3 4. 7 20. 1 12.2 6. 5 .6 8. 0 11. 8 10.2 2. 3 2.5 5. 0 13.2 6. 2 5. 1 4. 9 7. 7 14. 3 4. 1 3. 6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 7. 3 7. 9 9.3 13. 7 1979: June.. July__ Aug-.Sept.. Oct— Nov.Dec— 1.0 1. 1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 .3 .5 .1 1.0 .8 .7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 .8 1. 1 1. 1 1.0 1. 1 1. 1 1.2 1. 2 1. 1 1.4 12.8 13.3 13. 1 13.8 13.4 13.5 13.7 6.4 5.8 3.5 6.5 7.9 10.4 12. 1 15.6 15.9 16.9 16.4 14.4 13.5 12.7 13.2 14.0 13.7 14.3 15. 1 14.9 15.8 12.9 13.2 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.8 11. 1 9. 1 6.3 6. 4 6.8 6.9 9.3 14. 1 15.2 15.7 16.0 15. 1 15.2 14.5 12.5 13.1 13.0 13.7 14. 6 143 15.1 1980: Jan._. Feb___ Mar... Apr. _ May — June__ 1.4 1.4 1.4 .9 .9 1.0 0 —.0 1.0 .5 .3 .5 2.0 1.7 -1.3 .5 .4 .3 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 15.6 17.2 18.1 15.9 13.6 11.6 8.6 5.6 3.8 6.0 7.6 5.6 18. 1 21.2 22. 1 15.0 8.8 4.7 16.4 18.6 20.9 21.7 21.8 21.6 14. 5 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.4 14.8 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.6 47 16.2 17.3 17.3 16.5 14.8 13.0 15.7 16.7 18.3 19. 0 20.2 21. 2 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 _ „ 1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS rices received by farmers rose 1.3 percent in June and prices paid by farmers rose 0.7 percent in the month ended June 1 5. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 120 120 i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i I I i i i i I I i i i i i I 100 100 i i i i i I i i i i i RATIO 110 100 PARCTY 110 100 RATIO (ACTUAL) 90 80 70 60 I i i i ii 50 i i i i i Ii i i i i 1973 1972 i i i i iI i i i i i i ii i i I i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i 1974 1975 1976 i ii i i I ii i i i i ii i i I i i i i i 1978 1977 l i i i i I i i I I I i I I i I I I i i i i I 50 1979 1980 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES. AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices paid by farmers All items, Livestock Family Producinterest, and living tion taxes, and items items products wage rates Index, 1967=100 Prices received by farmers Period 1972 _ _ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 Allfarm products c F Ad justed * 74 91 86 76 71 66 70 71 79 94 87 76 72 68 72 72 8 i?( ) 248 251 249 254 256 256 258 72 71 69 70 68 68 67 73 72 70 70 68 69 68 (33) ( 3) (3) ( 3) (3) () 263 266 270 268 268 270 65 65 63 60 61 61 66 65 64 61 62 62 114 175 224 201 197 192 203 223 136 183 165 172 177 175 217 257 125 144 164 180 192 202 219 250 1979: June u v**jr _ July. . __ _ Aug Sept Oct Nov._ . . Dec __ 244 244 238 240 236 238 239 234 238 236 226 224 226 222 255 249 242 254 247 251 255 249 252 251 255 257 258 260 (33) () 1980: Jan Feb___ Mar Apr May June_ 236 238 234 224 227 230 220 220 220 217 223 224 252 255 247 232 232 237 269 271 274 274 275 277 _ Actual 121 146 166 182 193 200 217 248 125 179 192 185 186 183 210 241 _ Parity ratio l (33) () (3) 123 133 151 166 176 3 fm i Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, » Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted f m^*' t??es' and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977. 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to ^T „ . . _ _ . . ,noo farmers. NOTE.— Series revised beginning 1968. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS All the major monetary aggregates experienced substantial growth in June. M-1A and M1-B were still below FOMC yearly target ranges. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 1973 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] L M2 M3 Ml-B Ml-A Period 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1979: Dec. Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec June W U.JLJ July AUK Sept.. Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June v Currency plus demand deposits - 264. 1 275.3 287.9 305. 0 328.4 351.6 369.7 359.4 362. 0 364.0 365.9 366. 6 368.0 369.7 370.8 373.7 373. 1 367.6 367.8 371.3 Ml-B plus overnight BPs and Ml-A plus Eurodollars, MMMF other checkable shares, and deposits at savings and banks and small time deposits at thrift institutions commercial banks and thrift institutions l M2 plus large time deposits and term BPs at commercial banks and thrift institutions 858. 1 906.2 1, 022. 4 1, 166. 7 1, 294. 1 1, 401. 5 1, 525. 5 1, 465. 9 1, 478. 3 1, 491. 8 1, 502. 9 1, 510. 1 1, 516. 4 1, 525. 5 1, 534. 5 1, 546. 7 1, 553. 1 1, 549. 8 1, 562. 3 1, 584. 5 976. 1 1, 058. 6 1, 161. 0 1, 299. 7 1, 460. 3 1, 623. 6 1, 775. 5 1, 695. 2 1, 709. 2 1, 725. 8 1, 745. 5 1, 757. 8 1, 765. 4 1, 775. 5 1, 786. 9 1, 804. 5 1, 811. 1 1, 811. 1 1, 824. 4 1, 842. 9 264.4 275.7 289.0 307.7 332.5 359.9 386.4 373.9 377.4 379.9 382.2 382.9 384.2 386.4 388. 1 391.3 391. 2 386.6 386.2 390.9 1 Total M2 excludes demand deposits held by thrift institutions at commerical banks, not shown separately in components. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 Percent change 2 M3 plus other liquid Ml-A Ml-B assets 1, 137. 2 1, 242. 8 1, 369. 6 1, 523. 5 1, 715. 5 1, 927. 7 2, 141. 1 2, 048. 8 2, 063. 8 2, 081. 3 2, 110. 0 2, 120. 4 2, 126. 4 2, 141. 1 2, 155. 2 2, 175. 9 2, 190. 2 2, 201. 0 2, 216. 9 5.4 4.2 4.6 5.9 7.7 7. 1 5.1 4.5 6.9 8.2 8. 1 6.0 7.2 5.8 4.9 5.4 4.0 .5 —.1 .9 5.5 4.3 4.8 6.5 8.1 8.2 7.4 7.9 9.9 10.9 10.3 7.3 8.3 6. 8 5.8 6.1 4.8 1.9 1.0 2.3 M2 M3 7.0 5.6 12.8 14. 1 10.9 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.3 11.3 11.0 9.8 9.4 8.3 7.7 7.5 6.8 5.3 6.1 7.9 11.2 8.5 9.7 11.9 12.4 11.2 9.4 9.0 9.7 10.4 11.3 10.9 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 7.7 6.2 6.8 7.7 NOTE.—See page 27 for components. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, February 1980, for details on seriei Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Overnight Small Money Over- market deSavDe- Other repurnight chase checkmutual ings nomiCur- mand Euroagreeable de- nation fund Period rency dedollars shares posits time posits deposits ments (RPs) de/__x\ ^net^ posits 1 NSA NSA NSA NSA Dec: 1973. 61.6 1974- 67.8 1975- 73.8 1976- 80.7 1977. 88.7 1978. 97.6 1979- 106. 3 202. 5 207.4 214. 1 224.4 239.7 253.9 263.4 1979: June. 101.8 July. 102.6 Aug__ 103.7 Sept. 104.7 Oct._ 105.5 Nov_ 105.9 Dec_. 106.3 1980: Jan 107.3 Feb.. 108. 1 Mar_ 108.9 Apr__ 109. 0 May- 110. 1 June'' 111. 0 Large denomination time deposits 1 Term Shortrepur- Term term chase Euro- Sav- TreasBank- Comagree- dollars ings ury ers' merments (net) bonds secuaccept- cial (RPs) rities ances paper NSA NSA 8.4 16.7 13. 6 17.6 21.9 21. 7 .0 1.0 2.0 3.6 0. 1 322.2 333.9 383.9 447.7 486.5 10.3 476. 1 43.6 416.7 257.6 259.4 260.3 261.2 261. 1 262. 1 263. 4 14.6 15.4 15.9 16.3 16. 3 16.2 16.7 26. 3 25.5 25.3 26. 2 25.3 22. 5 21. 7 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.6 24.6 28.0 31.2 33.7 36.9 40. 4 43.6 449.8 450.9 450.4 445.4 436.0 421.3 416. 7 591.0 596.2 604.4 614. 6 628.4 647.8 656. 5 196. 8 198.9 201. 8 208. 9 214.8 218.5 219.4 32.4 32. 0 32.2 33.7 33. 0 30.5 30.5 29.9 31.4 33.9 33.4 33.2 34. 0 31.9 80.4 80.0 80.0 80.6 82.2 80.3 80.0 131.4 128.8 123.0 128. 1 123. 7 122. 1 127.5 21.5 22.6 25. 0 26. 6 27. 1 28. 6 28.9 263.5 265.6 264.2 258.6 257.6 260. 3 17.3 17.6 18.0 19.0 18.4 19.6 22.6 23.0 21.0 17.6 18.6 19. 8 4. 1 4. 1 49. 1 56.7 60.9 60.4 66.8 74.2 411.8 403. 1 391.9 377.3 372.8 380.2 661.8 671.4 687.6 708. 3 718.2 719.5 222. 5 228.6 230.7 234.2 235. 0 230.4 29.9 29. 2 27.2 27. 1 27.1 28. 1 34. 1 37.5 37.4 38.2 38.4 79.2 78. 1 76.8 75. 2 74.0 127.6 128.8 136.4 146.3 151. 2 28.4 99.0 27.6 99.3 28. 8 99.8 29.5 100.6 29.4 99.5 0.3 .4 1. 1 2.7 4. 1 6.8 7.2 7.5 0.0 .0 .0 3.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.8 266.4 288.9 340.4 396. 6 454.9 533.8 656. 5 110. 9 144. 0 129.6 118.0 145. 2 194.7 219.4 15.0 21. 0 27.3 30.5 i Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 7.1 8.4 9.0 4.4 6.7 7.9 10.3 13.7 22. 8 31.9 60. 4 63.2 67.3 71.8 76.6 80.6 80.0 49.8 53.4 76.8 80.7 89.5 98.7 127.5 8.5 9.0 12.3 22.6 28. 9 41.9 50. 1 48. 1 51.8 63. 1 79.4 97.3 90.4 91.8 93.6 95.7 96.4 96.0 97.3 4.7 10.7 See also page 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit extended Period Total * 1972. 1973 1974 1975 _ 1976 1977 19781979 _ __ — __ 1979: May June July Aug Sept... . WVliJ Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan .. Feb Mar Apr May__ - Automobile Revolving Total l Automobile Revolving Net change in amount outstanding Total1 Automobile Revolving 151, 749 173, 035 172, 765 180, 441 211, 028 254, 071 298, 351 322, 712 43, 702 49, 606 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 88, 987 91, 847 24, 659 28, 702 33, 213 36, 956 43, 934 86, 756 104, 587 120, 882 136, 787 152, 817 163, 276 172, 676 189, 381 218, 793 253, 541 287, 004 38, 081 43, 696 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 69, 430 79, 293 23, 485 26, 699 31, 243 35,616 41, 764 80, 508 96, 811 112, 386 14, 962 20, 218 9,489 7,765 21, 647 35, 278 44, 810 35, 708 5,621 5,910 495 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 19, 557 12, 554 1,174 2,003 1,970 1,340 2, 170 6,248 7,776 8,496 27, 901 26, 139 26, 848 27, 583 28, 634 27, 695 26, 464 25, 671 8,260 7, 178 7,447 7,667 8,430 7,676 7,066 7,131 10, 039 10, 136 9,856 10, 371 10, 699 10, 424 10, 613 10, 196 24, 595 23, 581 24, 405 25, 137 24, 188 25, 509 24, 057 24, 322 7,035 6,488 6,831 7,073 6,607 7,189 6,533 6,449 9,290 9,340 9,427 9,584 9,642 9,760 9,814 9,764 3,306 2,558 2,443 2,446 4,446 2,186 2,407 1,349 1,225 690 616 594 1,823 487 533 682 749 796 429 787 1,057 664 799 432 26, 702 27, 076 26, 620 22, 548 21, 239 7,780 7,659 7,240 5, 725 5, 192 10, 475 10, 458 11, 038 10, 293 10, 089 25, 330 24, 781 25, 183 24, 533 24, 673 6,808 6,778 6,845 6,370 6,535 10, 186 9,883 10, 427 10, 681 10, 577 1,372 2,295 1,437 -1,985 -3,434 972 881 395 -645 -1,343 289 575 611 -388 -488 t Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Installment credit liquidated Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND Total bank loans dropped in June for the third month in a row. Member bank borrowings were reduced further. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 1200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1400 1,200 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 • LEASES 400 400 200 180 160 200 180 160 140 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES ......»••*«"*'"" 140 120 120 INVESTMENT IN -U.S. TREASURY SECURITI 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Total loans and investments [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All member banks 3 All commercial banks 1 Borrowings (millions of dollars, Reserves Loans and leases Investments unadjusted) CommerOther U.S. SeaReNoncial and Total Total2 industrial Total Treasury secusonal borrowed quired securities rities loans 647.8 713.6 7446 8043 891.1 1, 014 3 1, 132. 5 460.3 519.9 516.9 5548 632. 1 747.8 847.2 165. 6 197.3 189.8 191.2 211.2 246.5 290. 5 53.7 82.1 100.6 99.5 93.4 93.8 140.0 145.7 149.0 159.6 173.1 191.5 m.8 3498 36.66 3467 3490 36. 00 41. 16 43.57 33.68 35.94 3454 3485 35.43 40.29 42. 10 3468 36.41 3440 3463 35.81 40.93 43. 13 1,298 703 127 62 558 874 1,473 41 32 13 12 54 134 82 1979: June 1, 080. 0 WU,ijr_ _ July. -__ ... 1, 092. 2 Aug 1, 102. 8 Sept 1, 122. 8 Oct_ . 1, 129. 1 Nov 1, 128. 6 Dec 1, 132. 5 803.1 813.4 823.3 840.0 845.0 843.8 847.2 270.4 275.5 279. 9 285.9 288. 6 288.3 290.5 948 95.3 94 1 95.2 95.3 943 93.8 182.1 183. 5 185.4 187.6 188.8 190.5 191.5 40.53 40.78 41. 11 41. 43 42.20 43.06 43.57 39. 11 39.61 40.03 40.09 40. 18 41. 15 42. 10 40.31 40.57 40.89 41.24 41.93 42.81 43.13 1,396 1,179 1,097 1,344 2,022 1,906 1,473 188 168 177 169 161 146 82 1980: Jan.. _ Feb Mar Apr_. 858.5 872.7 874.7 871.6 860.5 853.9 295.6 301. 1 302.7 301. 3 297.6 296.6 93.2 948 945 93.2 946 97.0 193. 1 195.2 196.0 196.2 199.7 201.5 43.44 43.35 43.68 4491 4446 43. 98 42.20 41.70 40.85 42. 45 43.44 43. 60 432.0 43.14 43.47 4464 4428 43.77 1,241 1,655 2,824 2,443 1,028 365 75 96 150 156 64 12 1973: Dec 1974: Dec .. 1975: Dec 1976: Dec 1977: Dec _ _ 1978: Dec 1979: Dec May 4 June _. 1, 144 8 1, 162. 7 1, 165. 2 1, 161. 0 1, 154 9 1, 152. 4 » Data are averages of Wednesday figures. * Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. s Data are averages of daily figures. Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. 28 * Data for loans and investments are estimates, „ -_ _ * ,„ 0 . Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System, SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total InterTl«l 1 Credit» market f unds Total Total Longterm Shortterm Other Total Purchase of physical assets 2 Increase /» in__ financial assets TV« Discrepancy (sources iless __ uses) 1970 1971 „ 1972 1973. — ^ 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 . 1979 104.4 127. 8 161.6 200.0 191. 3 150. 0 209. 7 242. 3 295. 7 339. 0 58. 9 68. 6 80.8 83.8 75. 7 106.8 125. 3 139. 9 148.8 158.3 45.5 59.3 80.8 116.2 115. 6 43.2 84.4 102. 3 146. 9 180.7 40.7 45.2 58.2 73.0 82. 1 37. 9 60. 7 79. 9 94. 7 113.6 34.2 41.9 45.3 49.2 51.6 44. 1 49. 1 53.0 61.5 70.0 6.5 3.3 12.9 23.8 30. 6 — 6. 3 11. 6 26. 9 33.2 43.6 4. 9 14. 1 22. 6 43. 1 33.4 5. 3 23. 8 22.4 52.2 67. 0 95. 9 119. 6 145.8 185.6 179. 0 133. 0 183. 3 216.8 274.3 324. 9 80.3 86. 0 100. 3 123.3 134. 7 99. 9 139. 0 169. 9 195. 9 223. 8 15. 6 33. 5 45. 6 62.3 44. 4 33. 2 44. 3 46. 9 78. 3 101. 1 8. 5 8. 2 15. 8 14. 4 12. 2 16 9 26. 4 25. 5 21. 4 14. 1 1978: I II III IV 259. 6 297. 7 . . 303.5 322. 1 135.0 150.5 153.8 155.9 124.5 147.2 149.7 166.2 94. 7 92.7 90.4 101. 1 51.2 65.2 63. 1 66.5 43.5 27.5 27. 3 34. 6 29.8 54.5 59.3 65. 1 232. 5 281. 3 284.4 298. 9 177.0 203.2 199. 9 203. 6 55. 0 78. 1 84. 4 95. 2 27. 0 16.4 19. 1 23. 2 1979: I II III IV 336. 7 320.8 385. 0 310. 2 154.4 159. 0 161. 6 158. 2 182. 3 161. 8 223.4 152. 0 112. 0 127. 1 129. 1 89. 3 66. 3 76.9 75.3 63. 2 45.7 50. 2 53. 8 26. 1 70. 3 34. 6 94. 3 62. 7 324. 302. 371. 297. 7 6 3 9 214. 0 230. 9 229. 9 220. 3 110. 7 71. 7 141.4 77. 6 12. 1 18. 2 13. 8 12. 3 1980: I* 364.4 153. 3 211. 1 124. 6 70.0 54. 6 86. 5 352. 2 229. 5 122. 7 12. 2 i Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. * Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total Cash U.S. Notes governand Invenment actories securi- counts ties receivable Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio * SEC series: 2 492. 3 1970__ 529.6 1971 1972 _ 599.3 1973 697.8 1974 790.7 3 FTC-FRB series: 1974735.4 1975... 759. 0 826.3 1976 1977 900.9 1978— 1, 028. 1 1979 1, 199. 9 50.2 53.3 59. 0 66.3 71. 1 7. 7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206. 1 221. 1 248.2 288.5 322. 1 193. 3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35. 0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375. 6 450. 9 530.4 211.3 220. 5 282. 9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128. 1 187.4 203. 6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 73.2 82. 1 87.3 94.3 103. 7 116.2 11. 1 19.0 23.6 18.7 17.8 17.8 265.8 272. 1 293.3 325.0 381.9 451.7 319.5 315.9 342.9 375.6 428. 3 503.9 65.9 69.9 79.2 87.3 96. 3 110.3 453.4 451.6 492.7 546.8 661. 9 803.7 269.8 264.2 282.0 313. 7 375. 1 460.8 183.6 187.4 210.6 233. 1 286.8 342.8 282.0 307.4 333.6 354. 1 366.2 396.3 1. 622 1.681 1.677 1.648 1. 553 1.493 925.0 954. 2 992.6 1, 028. 1 88.8 91. 3 91.7 103.7 18.6 17. 3 16. 1 17.8 337.4 356.0 376. 4 381.9 390. 5 399. 3 415.5 428.3 89.7 90.3 92.9 96.3 574.2 593.5 626.0 661.9 325.2 338.0 356.2 375. 1 249. 0 255.6 269.7 286. 8 350. 7 360.6 366.6 366. 2 1. 611 1.608 1.586 1.553 1, 078. 6 1, 110. 6 III _ - 1, 169. 6 IV_ _ _ _ 1, 199. 9 102.4 100. 1 103.6 116. 2 19.2 20.8 17.8 17. 8 405.3 419.0 448.9 451. 7 452.6 469. 2 492.7 503. 9 99. 1 101.5 106.7 110.3 701.6 723.9 773.7 803. 7 392. 6 410.8 443. 1 460.8 309.0 313.2 330.6 342.8 377.0 386. 7 395.9 396.3 1.537 1. 534 1.512 1.493 1978: I II--III IV 1979: I _ II 1 2 3 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. OQ INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Long-term and short-term interest rates edged higher in late June and July. PERCENT PER ANNUM 14 * MARCH 15.526 | 12 rl 10 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ]~NEW YORK" TREASURY BILLS "" /\ L W- \ V 1 11 11111 1 11 1972 1973 1974 MiiiIiiiii 1977 1976 1975 1978 1979 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant maturities 2 3-month bills i 3-year 10-year Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979..^ ;.__ 1979: June July... \ J— Aug Sept Oct.. Nov_ Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr IMlay June _ July Week ended: 1980: June 28 July 5 _ _ _ _ 12 19 26. Aug 2 7.886 5.838 4.989 5. 265 7.221 10. 041 9.045 9.262 9.450 10. 182 11. 472 11. 868 12. 071 12. 036 12. 814 15. 526 14. 003 9. 150 6.995 8. 126 7.82 7.49 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.71 8.95 8.94 9. 14 9.69 10.95 11. 18 10.71 10.88 12.84 14.05 12.02 9.44 8.92 7.56 7.99 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 8.91 8.95 9.03 9.33 10.30 10.65 10.39 10.80 12.41 12.75 11. 47 10. 18 9.78 7.077 8. 149 8.209 8.169 7.880 8.221 8.96 9. 15 9. 16 9.19 9.23 9.80 10. 11 10. 18 10.20 10.20 High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount municipal mercial rate Aaa bonds (N.Y. paper, bonds (Standard F.R. 4-6 & Poor's) 3 (Moody's) months 4 Bank) 5 6.09 8.57 7.83 9.87 6.89 8.83 6.33 6.25 6.49 8.43 5.35 5.50 5.56 8.02 5.60 5.46 5.90 8.73 7.99 7.46 4 6.39 9.63 10.28 10. 91 5.99 9.29 9.71 9H-9J4 6.05 9.20 9.82 9^-10 6. 10 9.23 10.39 10-10^ 6.40 9.44 11.60 10^-11 6.98 10. 13 11-12 13.23 4 7.19 10.76 12 12 13. 26 10.74 7.09 12-12 12.80 7.21 11.09 12-12 12.66 8.04 12.38 12-13 13.60 9.09 12.96 16.50 13-13 8.40 12.04 13-13 14.93 7.37 10.99 13-12 9.29 7.60 12-11 10. 58 8.03 11- 7.77 7.88 7.93 8.00 8. 13 a1 on ne ^ issues within period. ^ . _, Jt 21 5 S, Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities TirS1"6^1^ Departnienta Weekly data are Wednesday figures. « Beginning November 1 , 1979, data are for 6 months paper. • Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. \ nJQ 10.53 10.84 10.94 11.09 11. 11 7.89 8.26 8.21 8.30 8.26 11-11 11-11 11-11 11-11 11-11 11- Prime Newrate home charged mortgage yields by 5 banks (FHLBB)e 8.92 10.81 7.86 9.01 6.84 8.99 6.83 9.01 9.54 9.06 12.67 10.77 11% l l ^ j 10.66 10.78 11.01 11.02 2 11.21 13^-15 11.37 15^-15H 11.64 11.87 15J4-15J4 11.93 15^-16% 12.62 1654-19J4 13.03 19H-19K l 13.68 *18 /2-14 12. 69 14r-12 1212-12 12-12 12-1 IK lljj-ll 11- • Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with orior rates v " , ., sS: Detriment of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody 's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS k prices rose again in June and July, continuing the upward trend since April. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 80 INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 80 70 - 60 50 - 40 1972 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock 5 yields (percent) Common stock prices 1 Period New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50) * Composite Industrial Transportation 1974 _ 1975 1976 1977 _ 1978 1979 1979: June _ _ July Auff Sept Oct Nov Dec. 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Week ended: 1980' June 21 28____ July 5 12__ _ 19 26 43.84 45.73 54.46 53. 69 53.70 58.32 57.61 58.38 61. 19 61.89 59.27 59. 02 61.75 63.74 66.06 59.52 58.47 61.38 65.43 48.08 50. 52 60.44 57.86 58.23 64.76 63.57 64.24 67.71 69.17 66.68 66.45 69.83 72.67 76.42 68.71 66. 31 69.39 74.47 31.89 31. 10 39.57 41.09 43.50 47.34 47.54 48.85 52.48 52. 21 48.09 47.61 50.59 52. 61 57.92 51.77 48.62 51.07 54. 04 29.79 31.50 36. 97 40.92 39.22 38.21 38.44 38.88 39.26 38.39 36.58 36.55 37.29 37.08 36.22 33.38 35.29 37.31 38. 53 49.67 47. 14 52. 94 55.25 56.65 61.42 61.87 64.43 68.40 67.21 61.64 60. 64 63.21 64.22 61. 84 54.71 57.32 61.47 65. 16 65. 92 66. 16 66. 08 67.36 68.99 69.72 74.96 75. 34 75.32 76.95 79. 14 80. 29 54.01 53.92 54.87 57.31 59. 89 61.05 39.03 38.95 38.59 38. 88 38. 92 38. 79 65.71 65. 96 65. 75 66. 52 67. 59 66. 98 1 Average of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed 3 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. 5 on the NYSE. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Finance Utility Standard & Poor's Dowcomposite DividendJones price index industrial3 ratio average (1941-43= 4 10) 82. 85 4.47 759. 37 4.31 802. 49 86. 16 3.77 102. 01 974.92 4.62 98.20 894. 63 96.02 5.28 820.23 5.45 103. 01 844. 40 5.53 101. 73 838. 65 5.50 102. 71 836. 95 5.30 107. 36 873.55 5.31 108. 60 878. 50 5.56 104. 47 840. 39 5.71 103. 66 815. 78 5.53 107. 78 836. 14 5. 41 110. 87 860. 74 5.24 115. 34 878. 22 5.87 104. 69 803. 56 6.05 102. 97 786. 33 5.77 107. 69 828. 19 5.39 114. 55 869. 86 875. 90 880. 79 876. 28 893.98 910. 12 925. 75 115. 42 115. 71 115. 58 117. 78 120. 52 121. 84 Earningsprice ratio 11.59 9. 15 8.90 10.79 12.03 13.46 13.58 13.38 13.77 5. 31 5.29 5.36 5.26 5.1.7 5. 10 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. or FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 9 months of fiscal year 1980, there was a budget deficit of $43.7 billion. A year earlier, the deficit was $22.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 500 400 400 300 - 300 200 200 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 -100 -100 1972 1974 1973 1976 1975 1977 1978 1979 1981 1980 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts Period Fiscal year or period : 1970 1971— 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 (estimates) : . _ _ TThirH Pnnnnrrpnt ~Rp>«snlntirm - _ Tnnp 19 1 Q&O Mid-Session Review July 1980 2 1981 (estimates): First Concurrent Resolution, June 12, 1980 Mid-Session Review July 1980 2 Cumulative total, first 9 months: Fiscal year 1979 Fiscal year 1980 • Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. 2 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1981 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 21,1980. 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) 193.7 188.4 208.6 232. 2 264.9 281.0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402.0 465.9 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450.8 493. 7 -2.8 -23.0 -23.4 -148 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -45.0 -48.8 -27.7 525.7 517.9 572.7 578.8 -47.0 -60.9 613.8 604.0 613. 6 633.8 .2 -29.8 346.0 384.9 368.8 428.6 -22.8 -43.7 Federal debt ( end of period) Total * Held by the public 382.6 409. 5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544. 1 631.9 646.4 709. 1 780.4 833.8 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346. 1 396.9 480. 3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 812.2 884.4 632. 2 688.0 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 9 months of fiscal 1980, budget receipts were $38.9 billion higher than a year earlier, and outlays were $59.8 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 RECEIPTS 200 200 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES -„„,....»— / OTHER RECEIPTS 100 100 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 0 500 500 OUTLAYS 400 400 300 300 NONDEFENSE 200 200 NATIONAL DEFENSE \ 100 I 1972 I 1973 I 1974 I 1975 I 1976 1977 FISCAL YEARS I 100 I 1978 1979 SOURCE& DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1980 1981 v COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Outlays Receipts National defense Period Fiscal year or period: 197019711972 1973 1974. _ 1975_ 1976 Transition quarter. 1977- 1978__ ; _ 1979 l 1980 (estimates) 1 1981 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 9 months : Fiscal year 1979 Fiscal year 1980_ Total Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total 193.7 188.4 208.6 232.2 264. 9 281.0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402.0 465.9 517.9 604.0 90.4 86.2 94.7 103.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 240.7 278. 2 32.8 26.8 32. 2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 549 60.0 65. 7 65.5 66.4 70.5 75.4 81.7 92.8 107.4 118.0 127.0 34.5 145.2 161. 1 182.4 211. 7 259.4 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402. 7 450.8 493.7 578.8 633.8 78.6 75.8 76.6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135. 6 157.5 77. 1 74.5 75. 1 73.2 77.6 84.9 87.9 21. 9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.6 153.9 4.3 4. 1 4.7 4. 1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 48 5.9 6. 1 10.9 10. 3 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91.8 106. 5 136. 3 160.9 41.5 176.7 189.9 209.8 250.4 293.8 18.3 19.6 20.6 22.8 28.0 30.9 345 7.2 38.0 440 52.6 64 3 67.6 39.3 41.8 48. 8 53.9 51.6 66.5 76. 1 21.5 85.7 105. 9 107.5 117. 6 1046 346.0 384.9 160.2 177.8 52.7 52.2 133.2 154.9 368.8 428.6 85.5 100.9 84.9 98.7 42 8.0 155.4 181.7 41. 1 50.2 82.7 87.9 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1981 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 21,1980. Total Interna- Health and In- Other Depart- tional income ment of affairs security terest Defense, military Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 1980, Federal receipts rose $13.7 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $20.9 billion, yielding a deficit of $22.9 billion. In the second quarter, according to preliminary data, expenditures rose $17.7 billion/ receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 550 - 50 SURPLUS DEFICIT -50 -50 -100 -100 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A0VJSERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Surplus or deficit ( Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Subsidies Less: Grantsin-aid Wage less PurIndirect ContriPersonal Corpocurrent accruals national chases Trans- to State Net rate business butions tax and Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less income for Total nontax profits tax and ments local and nontax social inand paid Govern- distax receipts accruals services government en- burse- product accruals surance terprises ments accounts ments ->' , Fiscal year: 313.9 1976 366.0 1977 1978- . 414.7 483.7 1979 137.0 166.0 186.3 223.5 51.7 59. 1 67.7 78.4 24.3 24.5 27.2 29.4 100.9 116.4 133.5 152.4 371.1 411.4 450.1 493.6 125.7 140.3 150.7 162.4 156.5 169.6 182.0 201.7 57.6 66.3 747 79.3 25.2 28.4 33.1 40.4 6.2 6.9 9.6 9.8 0.0 .0 .0 .0 -57.3 -45.5 -35.4 -9.9 Calendar year: 331.4 1976 375.4 1977 . — 432.1 1978 497.6 1979 1978:111.. 442. 1 463.5 IV 475.0 1979:1 II — 485.8 III_. 504.8 IV__. 524.7 538.4 1980: I II *_ 147.2 169.6 1949 230.0 200.9 211.0 213.0 223.4 235.2 248.5 246.1 249.2 54.6 61.8 72.0 78.2 74.6 81. 2 77.2 74.9 79.4 81.4 86.8 23.4 25. 1 28.1 30.0 28.4 29.3 29.4 29.9 30.0 30.7 33.8 43.0 106. 3 118.9 137.0 159.3 138.2 142.0 155.5 157.5 160.2 1641 171.7 171.7 385.0 421.7 459.8 509.0 462.6 479. 7 486.8 492.9 516. 1 540.4 561.3 579.0 129.7 1444 152.6 166.6 152. 3 159.0 163.6 161.7 162.9 178.4 186.2 192. 5 161.7 172.7 185.4 209.8 188.8 192. 1 196.8 201.9 217.6 222.7 230.0 236. 1 61. 1 67.5 77.3 80.4 77.6 80.7 77.8 77.7 81.8 843 86.0 86.4 26.8 29.0 348 5.8 8.1 9.7 9.1 8.4 10.9 8.3 9.0 10.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .2 .0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -53.6 -46.3 -27.7 -11.2 -20.4 -16.3 -11.7 -7.0 -11.3 -15.7 —22. 9 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 4ai 35.6 37. 1 40.0 42.6 43.5 46.2 50.2 545 as 8.9 9.4 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period 129.8 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146. 1 152.2 151. 6 152.4 152.2 152.1 152.2 152.6 152. 3 151.7 148.3 144.7 141.2 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 - — 1979: Aug— . Sept.— Oct Nov... Dec 1980: Jan Feb.... Mar *__ Apr p»-_ May _. June v- GerFrance many Japan United CanStates ada 143.0 147.5 139.6 147.3 150. 5 156.7 164. 0 165. 1 167. 2 166.5 165. 5 162.6 162.8 162.9 165.9 163.3 190.5 183. 1 163. 9 182.0 189.7 201. 1 217.5 221. 1 218.2 223.6 226.4 225.6 228.7 241.3 233. 1 236.9 236. 1 Italy 145 147.7 134.6 148 145.1 140. 6 139 137.1 127.6 149 149. 1 143.5 152 152.7 145. 1 155 155.3 147.9 160 163.4 157.4 150.9 168 163 160.0 166 164 162 165 166. 1 167.1 163 166 164.8 165 166 167.8 165 168 174.9 166 169 174.2 166 169 176.6 166 168 162. 1 162 165 Consumer prices (unadjusted) United United CanGerKing- States1 ada Japan France many dom 123.0 120.0 114.3 117.6 123.0 126.8 131.4 129.8 128.0 129. 6 132.9 130. 1 130.8 128.8 126. 6 124.6 124.5 133. 1 147.7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 221. 1 223.4 225.4 227.5 229. 9 233.2 236.4 239.8 242. 5 244.9 247.6 130.3 144.5 160.1 172. 1 185.9 202.5 221.0 222.9 224.9 226.5 228.7 230. 1 231.3 233.3 235.8 237.2 240.0 242.7 147.9 184.0 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261. 3 261. 1 264.4 267.7 266.7 268.3 270.8 273.3 275.5 280.2 282.7 140.7 160.0 178.9 196.1 214.5 233.9 258.5 262.7 264. 9 268. 1 269.8 272.0 277.2 280.2 283.4 286.7 289. 3 127.2 136. 1 144.2 150.4 155. 9 160.2 166. 6 167.8 168.3 168. 7 169.3 170. 1 171.0 172.8 173.8 174.9 175.6 176.5 Italy United Kingdom 134.0 150.2 159. 7 174.3 186. 8 216.5 218. 1 252.4 255.2 292.4 286.2 316.6 328.5 359. 1 330.6 370.9 339.2 374.6 345.5 378.5 350.3 381.8 356.6 384.6 367.9 394. 1 374.3 399. 7 378.2 405. 1 384.3 419. 0 387.8 422.8 391.3 426.8 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic Research, in International Economic Indicators. » Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports * Merchandise imports Domestic exports Period Total domestic and foreign Total exports 2 General imports Food, Crude Food, Crude Total bever- mate- Manubever- mate- Manufac2 facrials (c.i.f. Total rials ages, ages, tured tured value) 4 and to- and and to- and goods goods bacco fuels bacco fuels F.a.s. value 5 Monthly average: 1973 1974 5,902 8,167 1974 8,167 1975 8,966 1976 9,596 1977 10, 096 1978 11, 965 1979 _ 15, 136 1979: June- 14, 817 July— 15, 691 Aug___ 15, 713 Sept___ 15, 822 Oct 16, 680 Nov 16, 928 Dec___ 16, 742 1980: Jan 17, 348 F e b _ _ _ 17, 233 Mar___ 18, 534 Apr 18, 468 May___ 17, 678 June 18, 642 5,811 8,053 Merchandise balance Exports Ex(f.a.s.) ports less (f.a.s.) imless imports (cus- ports toms (f.a.s.) value) trade Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (e.i.f.) Customs value 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,450 8,053 1,269 8,842 1,399 9,456 1,436 9,912 1,330 11, 753 1,717 14, 868 2,049 14, 554 2,072 15, 455 2,355 15, 452 2,164 15, 569 2,296 16, 396 2,374 16, 575 2,299 16, 419 2,413 17, 018 2,331 16, 950 2,296 18, 165 2,538 18, 137 2,410 17, 303 2, 190 18, 267 2,366 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,351 2,253 2,404 2,480 2,583 2,534 2,686 2,732 2,854 2,826 2,991 2,867 2,816 2,921 5,294 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,715 9,562 9,875 10, 033 10, 055 10, 444 10, 418 10, 719 11, 173 11, 373 11, 802 11, 745 11, 612 12, 277 8,387 8,048 10, 084 12, 307 14, 332 17, 194 16, 835 16, 806 18, 277 18, 407 19, 037 18, 548 19, 665 20, 945 21, 640 20, 607 19, 308 20, 528 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equip ment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all Periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. a m° aI,lnc!U(*es commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. f i,°A arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. 3 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 991 1, 186 1,312 1,478 1,557 1,387 1,405 1,402 1,404 1,689 1,712 1,652 1,406 1,544 1,503 1,531 1, 120 2,653 value 5 2,672 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5, 954 5,487 5,999 6, 445 7,044 7,479 6,379 7,775 7, 590 8,788 8,421 7,284 7,774 3,750 4,684 4,602 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,353 9,385 9,061 9,994 9,505 9,663 9,950 9,632 11, 183 10, 829 10, 176 9,969 10, 628 6, 131 9,033 112 -283 —221 -229 -866 —866 9,033 —283 —221 312 8,654 918 853 10, 825 —581 —488 -1, 229 13, 130 —2, 297 —2,211 —3, 034 15, 258 -2, 473-2, 367 3 293 18, 244 -2, 125 -2, 057 -3, 108 -2, 018 -3, 053 17, 871 17, 854 -1,115 -2, 163 -2,564 -3,668 19, 381 -2, 585 -3, 681 19, 503 -2, 357 -3,469 20, 149 -1,620 -2, 732 19, 660 -2, 923 -4, 068 20, 809 -3,597 -4, 760 22, 107 -4, 407 -5, 573 22, 806 -2, 073 -3, 158 21, 692 -840 — 1, 869 20, 337 -2, 850 -3,959 21, 637 -2,280 20, 922 s F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The current account was in deficit by $2.6 billion in the first quarter of 1980, up from $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 1979. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 10 -15 1980 1972 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Investment income8 Merchandise 1 2 Period Exports Imports Net Hal UcU— ance Receipts Payments Nof i> cii Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts Other services, net s Balance on goods and serv-1 ices Remittances! pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account 49, 381 -55, 797 -6,416 14, 764 -6,572 911 21, 808 — 9, 655 71, 410 — 70, 499 98, 306 — 103, 649 — 5, 343 27, 587 - 12, 084 107, 088 -98, 041 9,047 25, 351 - 12, 564 114, 745 -124,051 -9, 306 29, 286 -13,311 120, 816 — 151, 689 — 30, 873 32, 587 — 14, 598 142, 054 -175,813 -33,759 42, 972 -22, 073 182, 055 -211,524 — 29, 469 65, 970 -33,460 8, 192 12, 153 15, 503 12, 787 15, 975 17, 989 20, 899 32, 510 420 070 653 746 559 1, 628 886 - 1, 275 1978: III._ IV. _ 36, 828 -44, 336 -7, 508 10, 557 -5,717 38, 900 -45, 715 -6,815 12, 851 -6,343 4,840 6,508 139 3 -910 -774 1,506 -1,933 -1,233 -3, 166 -820 493 -1,313 1,571 1979:1-.. !!___ III_. IV. _ 41, 805 42, 815 47, 198 50, 237 7,038 7,270 9,319 8,883 -29 -102 -443 -700 -611 -637 -834 -613 1,448 1,428 1,524 1,405 2,732 -110 2,506 -250 1980:1*— 54, 708 -65,583 -10,875 20, 548 -10,425 10, 123 -700 -778 1, 539 -691 -1,876 -2, 567 1972 1973 1974. 1975__ 1976 1977 1978. _ 1979 -46, 919 -50,885 -54, 258 -59,462 -5, 114 -8, 070 -7,060 -9,225 14, 263 15, 250 18, 050 18, 407 -7, 225 -7, 980 -8, 731 -9, 524 * Excludes military grants. *8 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 — 3, — 2, — 1, — — 3, — 3, — 3, — 2, — 2, — 3, — 3, — 2, 063 158 184 792 558 293 188 695 2, 766 — 1, 941 — 3, 854 -5, 795 3, 184 11, 021 — 3,881 7, 140 2, 124 3,986 9, 309 —7, 186 4, 598 22, 893 —4, 613 18, 280 4,384 9, 382 —4, 998 4, 711 5, 086 —9, 464 —4, 605 — 14, 068 5, 959 — 9,204 — 5, 055 - 14, 259 — 788 5,806 4,878 — 5,666 -«-, w~t -1,324 1,408 -1,383 -1,493 1,099 -1,407 -1,552 -1,802 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the first quarter of 1980 net recorded private capital inflows equalled $5.7 billion, as contrasted to a net outflow of $6.7 billion in the previous quarter. There was a net capital outflow of $11.0 billion on transactions in official reserves. The statistical discrepancy continued to show a large net inflow. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 -10 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 1980 1972 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow ( — )] Period Total 1 972 1 973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978___ 1979 U.S. official reserve assets l 2 -14,497 4 -22,874 158 -34,745 -1,467 -39,703 -849 -51,269 -2,558 -35,793 -375 __ -61, 191 732 -61,748 -1,107 1978: III___ -9,977 I V _ _ _ -30,418 Other U.S. Govern ment assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( -f ) ] 2 Foreign official assets U.S. private2 assets - 1, 568 -12,925 -2,644 -20,388 366 -33,643 -3,474 -35, 380 -4, 214 -44, 498 -3,693 -31,725 -4, 644 -57,279 — 3 783 — 56 858 Total Total Assets o: Other foreign foreign assets official reserve agencies 21, 461 10, 475 10, 293 10, 986 18, 388 5,090 12, 362 6,026 34, 241 10, 546 10, 244 23, 696 15, 670 7,027 5,509 8,643 36, 518 17, 693 13, 066 18, 826 50, 741 36, 575 35, 416 14, 167 64, 096 33, 293 31, 072 30, 804 37, 575 — 14, 271 - 13, 556 51, 845 115 -1,386 8 706 17, 069 182 -991 -29, 609 28, 048 4,777 18, 368 Statistical discrepancy Allocations Total of special (sum of the drawing items rights (SDR) with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 710 -1,879 2 654 -1,620 5,753 10, 367 880 11,354 1, 139 23, 822 4,556 12, 292 16, 673 9,680 U.S. official reserve assets, net l ( unadjusted, end of period) 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 266 18, 747 19, 312 18, 650 18, 928 -3,926 -2,850 3, 190 1,998 18, 850 18, 650 1979: I -7,768 -3,585 -1, 102 -3,081 2,201 -8,744 -8,616 10,945 !!____ - 15, 279 343 -991 -14,631 6,407 - 10, 095-10,216 16, 502 Ill— -25, 215 2, 779 5,573 19, 152 5,789 -766 -27,228 24, 941 IV.. _ -13,487 -644 -297 5,246 1 221 -925 -11,918 4,025 1, 139 3, 020 10, 364 -825 11, 264 74 1, 167 A4.1 3 2,400 21, 658 21, 246 18, 534 18, 928 1980: I*... -11,817 -3, 246 -1,461 1, 152 8,215 -115 21, 448 - — o — ~-) ~^v,^ii*.» uui a,»» 4-iig, AXguto \UA the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. -7,110 5,016 -7,765 -7,722 12, 781 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. Q7 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries '. Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector , 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices. Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices. Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stocks Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields ,. 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402 Price $1.30 (single copy). 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