Full text of Economic Indicators : July 1949
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Economic Indicators
JULY
1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FJ^JSraS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
jfiM^Jr-SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V.VWATKINS, Utah
,-
^
/i
" v-- :
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
GROVER W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff
Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Economist
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
committee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.
11 for FRASER
Digitized
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Lav/ 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,
/ / <//>*Wv—
7
/•
/ / ) (n^^^^—
^ /
Chairman.
Vice Chairman.
111
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
IV
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
A general decline in economic activity during the 1st half of 1949 resulted in about a 3 '/z percent decrease
in gross national product from the level of the last half of 1948, according to preliminary estimates. Cash
payments by Federal, State, and local governments exceeded cash receipts, leaving a small cash deficit.
1948. 2 n d Half
>
*"""
"vni
TOTAL (Gross Nationa Product)
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+)
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) -^
CONSUMERS
Transfer payments
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, state and local)
CASH
37.3-^
Tr n f r
1949,
TOTAL
|st
Half
1 SURPLUS
m nl
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
(Gross National Product)
CONSUMERS
;
;
;
CONSUMER
SAVING
i
I75
-
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, slate and local)
56.11/
53.0
Transfer poyrnents
I/ ANNUAL R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED.
£/ TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN R E C E I P T S OR E X P E N D I T U R E S OF THE S E P A R A T E A C C O U N T S BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT
£/ INCLUDES AN A D J U S T M E N T OF - $ 1.6 BILLION IN THE 2ND HALF OF 1948 AND + $ 1 . 9 BILLION IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1949.
SOURCE" SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A,
CASH
DEFICIT
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
The consumers* price index fell slightly in May for the first time in three months. Rents continued to advance,
while the price of food and other items showed a decrease.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
220
180
160
140
120
1941
1940
1942
1944
1943
1945
1946
1947
1949
1948
•ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, AND IISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average.
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average.
1944 monthly average
_ ._ _ _
1945 monthly average. _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: May __ _ _ _
June
July . . _
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
_ March
April
May
All items
99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159.2
171. 2
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171.4
170. 9
169.0
169. 5
169.7
169. 2
Food
95. 2
96; 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
210. 9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205.0
204. 8
199. 7
201. 6
202. 8
202. 4
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198.0
197. 5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201. 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
192. 5
191. 3
Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108.0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111.2
117. 4
116. 7
117.0
117. 3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
120.4
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99.0
99. 7
102.2
105. 4
107.7
109. 8
110.3
112. 4
121. 1
133.9
131. 8
132. 6
134. 8
136.8
137.3
137.8
137.9
137.8
138. 2
138.8
138. 9
137.4
135.4
101.3
100. 5
107.3
122.2
125. 6
136.4
145.8
159.2
184.4
195.8
193.6
194.8
195. 9
196.3
198. 1
198. 8
198.7
198.6
196. 5
195. 6
193.8
191.9
189.5
Miscellaneous
100.7
101. 1
104.0
110.9
115.8
121.3
124. 1
128.8
139. 9
149.9
147.5
147. 5
150. 8
152.4
152. 7
153. 7
153.9
154.0
154. 1
154. 1
154.4
154.6
154. 5
WHOLESALE PRICES
Form products and food prices dropped during June. Industrial prices continued their decline.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
200
120
60
1940
SOURCE:
1944
1943
1945
1948
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1941 monthly average «
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
1947 monthly average __
1948 monthly average
1948: May
June
__
July
August
_
September
October .
_
_
_
_ _
__ _ _
__
_ _
_ _ __
November
December
1949: January _
February
March
April
May
June
_
Week ended:
June 7
14
21
28
July o
_.
_ ._ __
_ _ _ _ _ _
__ __ _
_ _ _ _ _
_
Farm products
Foods
Other than
farm products and foods
87. 3
98.8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 1
164. 2
166. 4
168. 8
169. 8
168. 9
165. 4
164. 0
162. 4
160. 6
158. 1
158. 4
156. 9
155. 7
154. 0
82. 4
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181.2
188. 3
189. 1
196.0
195. 2
191. 5
189. 9
183. 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
168. 3
171. 5
170.5
171. 2
168. 5
82. 7
99.6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
177.4
181. 4
188. 3
189.8
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170. 2
165. 8
161. 5
162. 9
162. 9
163. 9
163.0
89.0
95.5
109. 5
105. 6
135.2
151. 0
149. 5
149. 9
151. 4
153. 3
153. 6
153.4
153. 6
153. 1
152. 9
151. 8
150.7
148. 8
146. 7
145.0
155. 9
154. 6
153. 0
152. 9
152. 7
172. 7
169. 6
165. 9
164. 0
165. 6
167.0
163.4
159. 6
161. 2
161. 3
145. 8
145. 6
145. 4
145. 2
144. 5
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Falling prices especially for truck crops, food grains, and oil seeds, lowered the index of prices received by farmers
nearly 2 percent from May to June, and brought the parity ratio to the lowest level in 7 years. Contrary to the
general trend, hog prices rose 5 percent.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
350
PRICES RECEIVED
300
300
250
?5>0
PRICES PAID
{INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
200
PARITY RATIO*
I
1939
40
41
43
44
45
46
47
i
I
I I
M J
48
I I I I I
A S O N D J
J
i
F
I947
M A M J
J
1
1
I
I
I
1
1
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average___
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
_«
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average. _ «_
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: May
June
July
... August
September
October _ _
November
December
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 8
received 1 farmers
ing interest
by farmers
and taxes) 2
1949: January
February
March
April
_
x -1-a.j
Mav
June
1
August 1909-July
1
1910-14= 100.
8
»
__
-«
- - -
_
-- .-
..
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
247
77
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
116
118
120
117
116
111
109
108
268
258
261
260
256
252
248
245
246
246
245
245
108
105
106
106
104
103
1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
1
1
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
1
1
|
1
J A S O N O
1949
I948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Period
1
A S O N O J F M A M J
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices fell during the first half of June and then leveled off.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175
175
125
125
100
193940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
[1935-39 = 100]
Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
_ _
1948
1948: May . .
June
_
July..
August
__
September
October
;
November
December
1949: January _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
February
March___
_
April
Mav_.
June
Week ended:
June 1_
_ _
8
15
22
29
1
Combined
index 1
Industrials
Railroads
94. 2
69. 4
139. 9
124. 4
130. 2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
125. 7
127. 8
120. 4
119. 4
121. 0
117.2
118.0
118. 5
117. 7
112. 0
94. 8
71. 3
143. 4
130. 6
136. 9
142. 7
138. 9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126. 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7
124. 2
123. 4
117. 0
113. 1
111. 5
110. 7
112. 0
112. 5
118.
116.
115.
117.
117.
1
2
6
2
8
Utilities
74. 7
66. 1
143. 0
114. 7
122. 6
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120.4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99. 6
97. 4
97. 1
95. 8
88. 4
98. 6
61. 3
120.2
96. 2
99. 2
100. 6
99. 5
97. 3
97.3
97.4
94. 2
92. 9
94. 2
94. 4
95. 3
96. 1
95. 3
93. 0
90. 8
88. 7
87. 0
88. 1
87. 4
93.8
93. 6
92. 3
92. 5
92. 7
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
The unemployment increase from May to June (3.3 million to 3.8 million) was primarily among teenagers. Nonagricultural employment rose only slightly, and stood 2 million below a year ago.
MILL.IONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERS>ONS
70
70
UNEMPLOYMENT
-V/^TS,.
60 -
60
«
jii
50
#%%>
40 -
TOTAL
LABOR FORCE —^il^^^^ _^^
I
m m-
~yfffi4ff/ty/£66&**~^^
*%^m%m
•* *
'^
m
-
50
40
*;/
30
30
., NONAGfRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
20 ~
-
-
10 -
-
- .
I
0
• •;,
20
,
1 I'll 1 1 | ( I t
i i . • i 1 .-' , i i ,
10
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
10
10
8
UNEMPLOYMENT- MAGNIFIED SC ALl
_
6 -
-
4
-
2
0
8
- 6
-
_r— -x/-^^___^*^~~~~~**^~**'
-
\
0
1939
I
1944
1946
1947
MONTHLY AVERAGE
\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \
1948
*— -
_
^—^
.
J l l J I 1 i I \ I J
1947
i i. i J i 1 i i i i i
1949
1948
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period
1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average. __
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average. __
1948 monthly average. __
1948: May.. .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June_ _ __
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64, 511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64. 866
Civilian employment 1
Total
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
58, 660
61, 296
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59. 619
In nonagricultural
industries
36, 140
45, 010
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49. 924
In agriculture
9, 610
8,950
8,320
8,266
7,973
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
6,763
6, 993
7,393
7,820
8,974
9. 696
Armed
forces
370
11,260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1,391
1,414
1,453
1,468
1,508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1. 468
Unemployment
9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
2, 664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3. 778
1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
4
2
0
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
Further declines in employment in both duroble and nondurable manufacturing were the most significant employment developments in May. Construction continued its seasonal rise, and stood at essentially the same level as
a year ago.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
12
MILLIONS OF W A G E
A N D SALARY WORKERS
12
MONTHLY AVERAGE
/
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
DURABLE
MANUFACTURING
1946
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
[Thousands of wage and salary workers *]
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average __
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average __ _ _
_ _
1948: April
__
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December..
1949: Januarv
February
March 2
April 22
Mav
_ ._
__
_ _ _
Nondurable
manufacturing
4, 357
10, 297
7, 180
8, 055
8, 214
5, 720
7, 084
7,335
7, 846
8, 063
8, 164
8, 114
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8,294
8, 318
8,303
8, 222
7, 786
7, 778
7, 993
8, 007
8,253
8, 403
8, 279
8, 158
8,061
8,005
7, 898
7,80-7
7,665
7,444
7,885
7,879
7,818
7, 673
7,573
Trade
Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
service
public
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
610
187
016
278
400
3, 987
6 049
5, 607
5 449
5, 658
2, 912
3 619
4, 023
4 060
4, 065
1 150
1 567
1, 661
1 921
2 060
845
917
852
911
925
576
617
670
646
660
733
889
034
381
6,472
6, 454
6, 389
6, 399
6,383
6, 379
6, 364
6 364
6,346
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5, 604
5,650
5, 801
5,789
5, 714
5,994
3,974
4, 042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4, 092
4, 091
4, 066
4, 066
1,933
2, 052
2, 173
2, 219
2,253
2, 239
2, 206
2, 162
2, 079
817
935
950
922
952
948
941
938
939
9, 625
9, 513
9, 525
9, 685
9.557
6,265
6, 272
6, 314
6, 356
6.390
5, 761
5, 759
5, 762
5,773
5.820
3, 978
3, 956
3, 912
3,929
3,959
1,906
1,820
1, 841
1,937
2.010
925
922
914
919
902
6, 705
7 322
8, 820
9, 450
9, 746
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
10,
10,
4
5
6
6
6
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Preliminary estimate.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Source: Department of Labor.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
A small increase in average weekly hours in manufacturing in May reversed the downward trend of the prior 4
months.
HOUR S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
50
50
45
45
40
/\
J
*-»
^•x.
.xsfix: *«*-%-
-v.
35
35
30
30
25
25
0
i i i i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
1 1111111111
77777777777 77777777777
48
1947
1948
..X-'V—
40
0
1949
_J
"
i i i i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
48
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
1947
1948
1949
50
\
45
/\^
\ ^
/
40
35
30
0
77777777777 1 1 I 1 I I 1 I I 1 J
\ I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
50
25
^~^
'
1
40
1
v
^/u
ifr iyiV^
\JI
45
40
IX
fV
42
1
1
1
44
I
;
46
!
1947
1948
*^-
30
25
i i i i i 1 i i i M i i i i i 1 i t i i i i i i i i 1 ri i ii
48
^
</
—.—
1
^—-V
/**^
35
0
I
1
40
1949
1
42
1
1
!
44
I
46
!
1 1 1 1 11 t 1 1 11
I
48
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
11i11 ! i11 1111 ii ii11 i iii
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Hours per week, selected industries]
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: April
_ _ _ _ _ „ _ . . _ _
May
June ___
July
August _ _
_
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
_
__
_ _
March2 2
April2
May
8
1
2
3
1949
All manufacturing
industries
Retail trade
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
40. 1
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39. 8
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
40. 0
39. 5
39. 3
39. 0
38. 3
38. 6
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
43.0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40. 2
40. 1
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40.2
39. 7
39. 5
40. 2
40. 0
40. 0
39. 9
40. 1
Bituminous
coal mining
27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41. 6
40. 6
38. 0
3
27. 0
40. 3
39. 9
3
34. 2
39. 4
37. 9
38. 6
37. 1
38. 5
39. 3
38. 0
36. 3
37. 4
Building
construction *
32. 6
34. 8
39. 6
39. 0
38. 1
37. 6
37. 3
36. 7
37. 0
37. 9
37.8
37. 8
37. 6
37. 3
36. 4
37. 8
37. 0
36. 5
36. 1
36. 3
WORK STOPPAGES
The Ford strike was an Important factor in the increase in man-days of idleness caused by work stoppages in May.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF M A N - D A Y S IDLE
I5
15
1939
1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948
F M A M
J
0
A
S 0
N D
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: April _ _ _
May __
June
_
_
_
____
_ _ _ _
__
_
_ _
___
l
1949: January 1
February
March l _ _ _
April ll
May
1
__ _
__
_ _
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
__
349
727
_
July
August
September
October
November
December
1,484
1, 921
1, 125
___
___
_
____
_ __ __ _ _ ,_
3, 169
9, 667
2,883
2, 842
7,410
4,080
2, 220
2,670
2, 100
2, 540
2,060
1, 910
713
800
650
3, 600
1,800
3, 200
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
0. 3
.3
.I
.2
.1
.5
1. 4
.4
.4
1. 0
.6
.3
.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.1
.1
.5
.2
.4
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
For the 4th successive month, the index of industrial production showed a 5 point drop, according to preliminary
data for June. AH three major components shared in the decline.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index
250 -
250
200
200
150
150
100
50
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL
OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total=100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
goods ble goods
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthlv average
1946 monthlv average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1949: January
February
March.
April 1l
May
June 1
•
__
Preliminary estimate.
10
Manufactures
Durable
goods
Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
100
258
214
177
194
198
100
360
274
192
220
225
100
176
166
165
172
177
100
132
137
134
149
155
38
136
104
73
83
85
47
83
78
77
81
83
15
20
21
21
23
24
192
192
186
191
192
195
195
192
197
198
192
197
199
202
201
199
221
222
219
223
225
231
229
231
178
179
169
177
178
179
178
173
162
159
153
159
156
158
161
156
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
87
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81
25
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
191
189
184
179
174
169
198
196
193
185
179
175
227
226
223
213
201
194
175
173
168
162
161
159
149
149
136
148
146
134
86
86
84
81
76
74
82
81
79
76
76
75
23
23
21
22
22
20
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Substantial decreases occurred in May in the production of both ferrous and nonferrous metals.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
IRON AND STEEL
LUMBER AND
250
250
SEASONALLY
200
200
150
150
100 1
I
I I I I I I I 1 I
MONTHLY AVERAGE
ADJUSTED
PRODUCTS
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
1 I I I I I I I I I I I
40 42 4 4 - 4 6 48
1947
1948
1949
40 42 44 46 48
MACHINERY
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
350
SEASONALLY
MONTHLY AVERAGE
ADJUSTED
• 443
300
300
tv
1 50
i oo l*i i i l i i i i i I I i 1 1 i i I i i i I i 1 i i i i i I I i i i i I i i i i i I i i I ( I
40 42 44 46 48
1947
1948
1949
40 42 44 46 48
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
__
_ _ _
__
1948: April
Mayj r _ _ _ _
June
July
August
September. _ _
October
November. _
December
1949: January
February
March
April1 1
May
___
_
__
_
Nonferrous
metals and
products
Lumber and
products
Machinery
100
208
183
150
195
208
100
129
109
131
143
145
100
443
343
240
276
277
100
267
204
157
187
193
177
208
208
201
207
214
221
224
223
145
142
140
142
148
143
147
145
143
275
273
277
269
271
273
277
276
277
200
196
194
185
186
192
192
187
184
228
232
233
219
204
129
123
129
126
124
268
262
252
240
230
183
186
184
168
146
Iron and
steel
Period
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The decline in production of textiles and chemicals continued in May, but at a slower rate than in preceding
months. Food processing reached a new high.
PERCE MT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
300
200
200
100
0
j—
1
1 I 1
40
42
i
!
44
1
~^~
"\
100
1 1
46
—v--
1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 I 1 !
1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 M
1947
1948
48
II
i II
! i 111 1 1 1
0
r\.
J^
i i i i i i LJ L
40
1949
42
44
46
1 1 ! 1 II
48
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
^^<^^y pv_
^^^
1 1 1 1 1
1947
1949
400
MONTHLY IL
AVERAGE j\
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
300
'**
••i.
•
•*»-*' ""
"
X.
200
200
0
1948
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
400
100
1 11 I 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1
1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
s* —
1
I I 1 1 I !
40
42
44
1
46
1
/
100
I l I i i 1 1 1I I 1
48
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M1
1947
1948
1! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
1
1 1 I T ,L L J
40
1949
42
44
1 |
46
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I
48
II
1947
1 1 ! I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 M 1 1 1 1 M I1
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
19.FRASER
Digitized for
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948:
April.
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February...
March l
April i
May
1
.
___
...
Petroleum
and coal
products
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
175
177
174
154
166
168
167
164
156
213
220
220
217
221
207
217
227
231
157
159
163
160
156
163
161
159
158
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
257
257
160
157
142
129
123
228
221
213
210
211
160
162
162
163
164
257
250
245
237
234
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel production dropped again in June. Production of bituminous coal returned to levels prevailing before the
work stoppage. The number of automobiles manufactured increased sharply. Output of electric power continued
above last year's rates.
MILLIONS OF TONS
3
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
7.0
STEEL
6.0
1949
"1947
194:
r~x_
/^\^\
i
1 -
I
I
——i/O
^^^yr
V
i
S
O
N
O
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
3.0
2.0
o L,
F
M
A
AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. "
Period
Weekly average:
1947
1948
-
--
-
Week ended:
1948- June 5
12
19
26
July 3
10
._
-
1949: June 4
_
18
-_
11
25
July
2
9
_ _ _
__- _
-
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Steel
(thousands of
net tons)
Electric power,
by utilities
(millions of
kilowatt-hours)
Bituminous
coal
(thousands of
short tons) l
1, 637
1, 700
4, 821
5, 300
2,008
1,906
90, 860
100, 670
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
730
732
730
734
716
628
4,
5,
5,
5,
5,
4,
845
132
159
257
166
760
2, 361
2,220
2, 229
2, 126
69,
104,
103,
89,
108,
93,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
692
643
598
556
473
128
5,018
5,300
5, 373
5, 466
5, 410
1,850
2, 160
613
1,968
369
1, 963
Cars and
trucks
(number)
947
407
535
147
052
691
91,955
130, 151
139, 005
145, 372
138, 958
1
Daily average for week.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
13
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Both private and public construction activity continued to rise in June, The increase in public construction was
only seasonal, but private increased more than seasonally.
2,000
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
1,500
1,500
MILLIONS
OF D O L L A R S
,—
p
1,000
1,000
I
1
II1 i
1939
1942
1944
1946
1947
500
J
1948
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
AND DEPARTMENT
OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average _ _ _
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: April
Mayj
._
June
July ___ _
August
September. _ _
October _ _ _
___
November.
December _ _ _ _ " _ _
1949: January _ _ _
February
March
April___
Mav 2
June -„
1
2
_
_
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1, 565
1,378
1, 572
1, 754
1,874
1,934
1,901
1, 814
1,646
1,447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1, 378
1, 584
1. 759
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarrn)
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1,099
1,222
1, 348
1,423
1,454
1,427
1,355
1,256
1, 129
1,002
905
951
997
1, 117
1. 241
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
14
176
110
45
265
438
602
550
625
682
707
720
707
670
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
549
597
666
716
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
531
552
587
641
Federal,
State, and
local *
208
867
193
184
262
351
279
350
406
451
480
474
459
390
318
291
267
316
381
467
518
NEW HOUSING STARTS
About 95,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in May, bringing the total for this year to about 10 percent below the number for the corresponding period in 1948. May was the second successive month to show a
more than seasonal increase. Starts in June were about equal to the number in June 1948, according to preliminary
data.
THOUSANDS. OF UNITS
THOUSANDS'OF UNITS
75
50
50
25
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February _
March
April
May
June
July
August
September _
October
November
December
_
_
Total
Monthly average
_ _
__
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70, 750
77, 600
1949
50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
86, 000
95, 000
100, 000
1
1
1
2
1
2
Preliminary estimate. March data revised after chart was prepared.
Data became available after the chart was prepared.
Source: Department of Labor.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Estimated nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in 2nd quarter of 1949 showed, for
the first time in the postwar period, no gain over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Anticipated
expenditures in 3rd quarter of this year run lower, with electric and gas utilities the only field to show a
continued gain.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
20
15
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
t
-UTILITIES
10
10
1939
*
1941
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
1945
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
(Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
Total i
Manufacturing
Mining
Transportation
Railroad
Other
Electric and
gas utilities
Commercial
and miscellaneous 3
1939
280
5,200
280
1, 930
380
1.850
480
1941
_ _
560
8, 190
3, 400
340
680
710
2,490
1945
320
550
3,210
440
6,630
630
1,480
1947_
690
16, 180
7,460
910
800
4, 430
1,900
1948
8,340
700
1,320
800
19, 230
2,680
5,390
1947: First quarter
5,800
12, 640
720
600
640
1,320
3,600
Second quarter _ _ _
15, 760
920
880
7,400
640
4, 120
1,800
Third quarter
7,480
920
800
720
16, 560
2,000
4, 640
Fourth quarter __
760
19, 760
9, 160
840
1,200
2,480
5, 360
1948: First quarter
1,080
16, 680
720
7,200
720
2,000
4, 960
Second quarter
1,240
19,280
8,560
760
800
2, 560
5,360
Third quarter
.
8,360
1,320
800
19, 320
680
2,760
5,440
Fourth quarter
680
880
21, 640
9,280
1,640
3,400
5, 760
1949: First quarter 3
520
760
7,400
17,840
1,440
2, 720
5,040
Second quarter4
560
19, 280
1, 640
800
7,840
3,240
5, 200
Third quarter
_
_ _
18,520
680
760
1, 240
7, 360
3, 320
5, 120
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Commercial and miscellaneous include trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Preliminary
estimates of actual expenditures.
4
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment arid also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
16
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Total proceeds-from new corporate security issues fell heavily in the 1st quarter reflecting a decline in both
fixed and working capital financing.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
3.0
3. O
1939
SOURCE:
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939 quarterly average
1943 quarterly average
1945 quarterly average _ _
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average
1948 quarterly average
1947: Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1949: First quarter 2
__
___
.
Plant and
equipment
Working
capital
Retirement
of debt and
stock l
529
287
1,475
1,689
1, 617
1,604
81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,392
43
35
159
529
852
1,035
39
42
111
291
296
357
448
210
1,206
869
469
212
1,374
2, 311
884
2,000
692
1,654
192
347
490
310
1,614
1,663
1, 267
1,873
1,400
1,353
1,045
1,767
845
1,080
764
1, 451
555
274
281
316
214
309
221
105
1,057
851
699
152
206
1
2
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
17
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Liquidation of inventories in manufacturing and trade continued in May. Manufacturers' sales also fell off, but
retail and wholesale levels were maintained.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
RETAI L
WHOLESALE
20
20
s EASONALLY ADJUSTED
INVEh T( JRIES
y
s/ it _s
1 0
^^^^"
1 0
v
S*z?
t*"r****
0
*•%,*»*<
r^-' i NVErJT< JRIES
—^
i i i i i i i i i
i 1 i I i 1
40
42
44
46
48
l l i ii
L
l 1 i ii i i i i ii
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
0
i i i ij 1 1 i j
40
1949
42
44
46
:s
i .1 11 1 1 , in
1 Mill 1 1 1 1 1
M MI 1 ii i n
1947
1948
1949
48
PERCE YT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
DEPARTMENT STORES
MANUFACTURING
40
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
iNVEfv T' )RIES
\
\
30
***"*••..
^L
300
,,.t«** **"
s
/A
/
20
/^ ^*T~ W
/
'*'•'
/
Sfi LI IS
1 0
0
"
/ /INVEN T< )RIES
200
/
•-"•..
/
/•......."
1 00
1 1 1 r i i i i t
40
42
44
46
i i i l i 1 1 I i ii
48
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT
M
1947
OF COMMERCE
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
0
l
l
40
1949
l
I 1
42
1 M
44
46
1
48
1 1 1 M
1 1 1 1 11
1 1 1 1 1 1 I| | | |
1948
1947
Inventories
3
Manufacturing 1
Retail 2
Wholesale l
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Sales
Department stores
4
_
3,200
4, 151
3,577
4,216
5,823
7,545
8,315
7,801
7, 953
7,930
8, 100
8,243
8,400
8,507
8,315
8,527
8, 567
8,445
8, 152
7,884
2,505
3, 650
4,330
4, 777
6, 138
7,304
7,867
7,389
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8,286
8,376
8,242
8, 196
7, 163
6,802
7,489
6,959
7,094
5,502
7,620
7,350
7,502
11,049
12, 953
14, 556
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 107
13,952
14, 220
14, 052
13, 750
3, 504
4,624
5,310
6,387
8, 399
9,860
10, 784
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11,062
10, 615
10, 588
10, 620
10, 719
10, 705
Inventories
Sales
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 6
Millions of dollars
-_ -_ . _-
1949
AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM
Period
1939
_.
1941
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
1948- May
June
July
August _
September
October
_
November
December.
1949 January
February
March 6 _
April 6
Mav 6
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
11,516
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31,713
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31, 225
31,713
32, 062
32, 070
31, 793
31, 266
30, 823
5, 112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12, 020
15, 671
17, 587
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17, 980
18,130
16, 691
16, 424
18, 107
16, 763
16, 190
102
131
155
166
213
255
291
293
285
285
285
290
290
296
291
279
278
284
281
274
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
305
308
311
309
309
308
289
305
294
281
277
294
293
8
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
Book value, end of period.
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
Monthly average for year and total
1
Preliminary estimate.
for month.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
[
1
18
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
4
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Imports increased slightly from April to May, but exports fell 6 percent.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
1600
1,400 -
-
L200
1,000
1400
1,200
-
-
1,000
800
800
- 600
600 -
400
400
- 200
200 ~
1936-38
J
1943
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND C I V I L I A N SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTSSOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Exports l
Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: April
May _ _
_
June
July
August
September.
October
November
December
1949: Januarv
February
March
April .
Mav
247
1 080
877
849
_ __
_
_ _ __
_
_ .
_
_ _ _
___
_»
1,278
1,051
__
1, 120
1, 102
1,015
1,019
40
798
531
439
801
457
592
553
400
461
391
368
424
270
563
500
465
522
614
538
__
1,284
___
1, 090
1,033
1, 154
1, 148
1,077
590
568
632
534
539
. _ _
990
926
1,021
820
Excess of
exports
207
282
346
410
478
594
528
549
615
558
599
558
597
550
721
_ _ _
_ _
__ _
Imports *
1
1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
19
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income declined 3 percent from the 1st to the 2nd quarter, according to preliminary estimates.
Compensation of employees, corporate profits, and proprietors' income accounted for the drop.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
III
1946
1947
1948
1948
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE {except <
fBillions of dollars]
Period
1939
.
1944
1946
1947
1948 _ _
.
Total
national
income
72. 5
182.4
179. 3
202.5
224.9
.
_ .
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net interest
47.8
121. 1
117. 3
127. 5
139. 4
14.7
34. 1
41. 8
46.0
50. 9
4. 2
3. 1
3.4
4.3
4. 9
Total
Profits
before
taxes
5.8
24.0
16. 8
24. 7
29. 8
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6. 5
24. 3
21. 8
29.8
32.8
-0.7
-.3
-5.0
— 5. 1
-3.0
30.5
32. 1
34.0
34.7
-5.3
-2.5
-3. 9
-. 4
28. 8
25. 5
* +1.9
+ 3. 5
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 1 2
Second quarter
1
2
2
213.9
222. 3
228.2
235.6
134. 0
136. 3
142.4
144. 7
49.9
51. 6
50. 6
51.4
4.7
4. 8
5.0
5. 2
25.3
29.6
30. 2
34.3
228. 0
221.0
141.9
139. 0
50. 0
47.5
5.3
5. 4
230.7
29.0
2
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Revised estimates of the nationaf income and product series will be published in the Survey of Current Business, July 1949.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
20
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits, after reaching peak levels in the fourth quarter of 1948, have declined quarter by quarter, during
the first half of 1949, reflecting the effects of lower prices and lower levels of activity.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4O
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PROFITS BEFORE TAXES^,
in
H
1939
1944
1946 1947
1948"
"NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTOR^ VALUATION ADJUSTMENT
*"PRELI
IARY ESTIMATES BV COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED)
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
-
_
-
-.
- -
9.8
6.5
24. 3
21.8
29.8
32.8
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
13. 5
9.0
11.7
12.8
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10. 8
12.8
18. 1
20. 1
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4. 7
5. 6
6.9
7.8
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
7.2
11.2
12.3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948* First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949' First quarter 1
Second quarter *
.
30.5
32. 1
34.0
34. 7
11.8
12. 5
13.3
13. 5
18. 7
19. 6
20.8
21. 2
7. 4
7.4
7.7
8.3
11.3
12.2
13. 1
12.9
28.8
25.5
11. 6
10. 2
17. 2
15. 3
8.3
8.0
8.9
7. 3
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 20 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Revised estimates of the national income and product series will be published by the Survey of Current
Business, July 1949.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
21
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income dropped about $ 5 billion (annual rate) from 1st to 2nd quarter. Salaries and wages and
proprietors' income (business, professional, and farm) shared about equally in the decline.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
250
250
2 00
1939
1944
1946 1947 1948
J F M A M J J A S O N D J
J F M ^,VRT* J
F M A M J J A S O N D
A s o N D
< AND JUNE
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944 ._
1946
1947_ ._
1948
_ _
_.
.
72. 6
164.5
178. 1
195.2
213. 6
Salaries, wages,
and other
labor income
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Dividends
and interest
45.7
116. 1
111. 4
121.9
134. 3
14. 7
34. 1
41.8
46.0
50. 9
9. 2
10.6
13.5
15. 6
17.3
Social security
and GI payments
3.0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: April
May__ _
_
_ _
June
July
August
SeptemberOctober
November
__ __
December
1949: First quarter _ _
_ _
January
February
March. . _
Second q uarter 1
April
_
1
_
208. 6
209: 2
214. 4
214. 8
216. 7
217. 3
218. 5
219. 9
221.0
216. 6
219. 2
216. 3
214. 6
128. 8
131.0
133. 4
135. 5
138.0
138.8
139. 6
140. 1
139. 8
136. 7
138. 4
136. 8
134. 8
51. 2
50. 4
53. 0
51. 2
50. 3
50. 4
50. 7
51.4
52. 1
50. 1
51. 4
49. 7
49. 1
16. 7
16. 8
16.9
17.0
17. 3
17. 5
17. 8
18. 1
18.4
18. 3
18. 3
18. 3
18. 3
11. 9
11.0
11. 1
11. 1
11. 1
10. 6
10. 4
10. 3
10.7
11. 7
11. 1
11. 5
12. 4
211. 5
213. 6
134. 0
135. 3
47. 5
48.0
18. 1
18. 2
11. 9
12. 1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Revised estimates of the national income and product series will be published by the Survey of Current
Business, July 1949.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
For the 2nd. quarter of 1949, consumer disposable income decreased about 2 [/z percent from the 1st quarter
level. Consumption expenditures decreased only I percent, so that most of the decrease in income was reflected
in a lower rate of personal saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
150
:£S CONSUMPTION v.
#; EXPENDITURES 5&":
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income l
Period
1939
1940
1941..
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946,
1947
1948
..
..
_
_
70.2
75.7
92.0
116. 2
131. 6
145.6
149.4
159.2
173.6
192. 6
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82. 3
90. 8
101. 6
111.4
122.8
147.4
164.8
177. 7
2.7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
34. 2
26.6
11.8
8.8
14. 9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1949: First quarter 2
Second quarter
_
183. 9
190.2
196. 2
199.4
172.5
177.3
180. 1
181.0
11.4
12. 9
16. 1
18. 4
_ _ _
197. 8
193. 0
176. 6
175. 0
21.2
18.0
___
__
_
1
2
Income less taxes.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Revised estimates of the national income and product series will be published by the Survey of Current
Business, July 1949.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
23
PER CAPITA INCOME*
Per capita disposable income fell 3 percent from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949, as measured in current
dollars, or 2|- percent in terms of real purchasing power.
l
1939
I
1940
i
1941
I
1942
I
1943
I
1944
I
1945
I
1946
1947
2
3
1947
1948
4
1
2
3
1948
4
I
2*, * 3
1949
SOURCES: D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E AND D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
Per capita disposable
personal
income l
Current
1948 dollars *
dollars
Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 .
1948 - _ -
_.
_--
_
-
.
-
. . . . _._ _-.
- .-
_
...
_
-_-
--
536
574
691
863
964
1,054
1,070
1, 127
1, 205
1,314
923
981
1,125
1,256
1,306
1,391
1,374
1,351
1,294
1,314
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1948* First quarter
Second quarter
_
Third quarter
Fourth, quarter
_
1949- First quarter 4
Second Quarter _ _
__
1
2
3
_ _ __.
_
__
_ _ _ _
_ __
~_
1,262
1,300
1,335
1,351
1,334
1,297
1,288
1,305
1,311
1,342
1,345
1,311
Consumers'
price index 8
• 1948 = 100
58. 1
58.5
61. 4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
98.0
99. 6
101.8
100.7
99.2
98. 9
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted index will be found on page 2.
4
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Revised estimates of the national income and product series will be published in the Survey of
Current Business, July 1949.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).
24
4
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings for most industries remained relatively stable in April. Manufacturing earnings in May
again showed little change, according to preliminary data.
DOLLARS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.00
2.00
"1948 DOLLARS*
1948 DOLLARS*
CURRENT DOLLARS
.50
n i l M i i i M n M i l l M M M I 1111TTTil 1 1 1 1 1 1 n I IT Mm
1947
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 ' 48
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
1948
1949
1948
1949
1.00
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 48
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
average
average
average average
average
average
average _ -
0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1. 221
1.327
1.090
1. 187
1.381
1.313
1. 230
1.311
1.327
0. 536
. 568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.067
0. 923
.925
.981
.992
1.053
1.064
1.067
1948: April
_ _ _ _ .. .
Mav
June
__ _ _
July
August
_ _ _ _ _
September
October _ . _ _
November
December _ _ _
1.292
1.301
1.316
1. 332
1.349
1. 362
1.366
1.372
1.376
1.306
1.306
1.312
1.312
1.324
1.337
1.347
1. 364
1. 375
1.055
1.064
1.070
1.077
1.080
1.086
1.080
1.084
1.072
1.067
1.068
1.067
1.061
1.060
1.066
1. 065
1.078
1.071
1949: January
February
March 3 _ _
April 33
May >_
1. 380
1. 377
1.374
1.376
1.375
1. 383
1.395
1. 388
1.388
1.392
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
1948 monthly
JLTXaj
1
2
_ _
110
104
102
106
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100.
See note 3 to table on page 24.
Source: Department of Labor.
3
4
112
119
113
116
Current
dollars
1948
dollars
0.886
.993
1. 186
1.240
. 401
. 633
.899
4
.821
.841
.850
1.936
1.967
1.970
1.959
1.951
1.960
1. 949
1. 943
1.941
1.932
4
2
Building construction *
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
1.525
1.617
1.607
1. 592
1.680
1.754
1.899
0.932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1. 478
1. 681
1.848
1.604
1.645
1.787
1.770
1.772
1.806
1.848
1. 841
1.848
1. 844
1.907
1.930
1.933
1.932
1.939
1.958
1.804
1.815
1.836
1.862
1.874
1.895
1.892
1.906
1.915
1.824
1.822
1. 830
1.834
1.839
1.860
1.866
1.895
1.913
1.953
1. 969
1.961
1.950
1.918
1. 930
1.933
1. 933
1.922
1. 955
1.953
1.951
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
25
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
Take-home pay of manufacturing workers rose in May for the first time in 5 months, reflecting a slight increase
in working time.
DDL LARS
PER WEEK
DOLLARS PER WEEK
^
60
/
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
\I948DOLLARS**
*"yr| \*"^»~*~£& IBIE» •••••
^/
60
MONTHLY AVERA6E
•**M
1948 D 0 .LARS**
40
p***
Var— -*
40
CURREN' • c)OLLARS
/
+~~^~>
^••^CURREN" " IDOLLARS
20
0
20
i
i t
40
i J J. ] L-L
42
44
46
i i i i i 1 i i i ii
48
i i i i i 1 i ii ii
1947
1948
n , , .1 i i i i.
0
i i i i i i i i i
40
1949
42
44
46
1948 D 01.LARS'*
t7
1
60
/
*j-'-yJ\ vy*vV
1949
80
1948 D 01.LARS**
)"'
60
^**
7
s
20
i i i i i 1 i I i ii
0
42 44
^g^^***^*
40
s
40
/^
-"X
±~
f CURREN" I)olLARS
/CURREN ' I )OLLARS
J
i
1948
100
J
20
, , . , , ! , ! , . ,
MONTHLY AVERAGE
80
40
1947
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
100
j i iii1 i i i ii
48
46
48
1 M i l l 1 II
1947
1948
1 1
40
E
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
1949
E
°
BLE
42
44
46
48
1947
M iii11 11M
1 1 1 M
1948
1 1 1 1 1 1
1949
"
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Retail trade
Current
dollars
1948
dollars *
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
36.44
23.88
21. 17
41.07
23.86
1939 monthly average
30.86
35.73
21.94
48. 18
29.58
1941 monthly average _
36.02
51.27
62.44
26.58
46.08
1944 monthly average
52.25
36.34
28.31
44.39
56.98
1945 monthly average
58.03
39.03
32.55
52.45
43.74
1946 monthly average
66.86
39.39
36.67
52.90
49.25
1947 monthly average _
72.57
39.98
39.98
53. 15
53. 15
1948 monthly average
4
49. 53
39.71
39.27
52.37
51.79
1948* April
74.08
40.00
39.84
52.07
51. 86
May
73.87
40.40
40.52
52.69
52.85
June
67. 62
40.58
52. 17
41. 19
52.95
July
78. 10
40.42
53.04
41. 19
54.05
August
75.51
39.73
40.48
53. 18
54. 19
September « _
76.40
39.76
40.32
53.90
54.65
October
73.52
39.43
39. 67
54.56
54.23
November
75.79
40.58
40.62
54.96
55.01
December
76.84
41.87
54.62
41.79
54.51
1949* January
42. 11
74.31
41.56
54.83
54. 12
Februarv
.
68.41
41.90
41.48
54. 13
53.59
March8 ^
72.70
42. 19
52.70
41.81
53. 18
April 3
53.72
53. 08
May
- 1
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
3
Preliminary estimates.
4
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
26
1948
dollars 2
41. 10
50.26
69.47
67.07
69.58
71.81
72.57
4
50. 08
74.38
73.65
66. 62
76. 64
74. 10
75.34
73.08
75.71
76.99
75.29
69.10
73.36
Building construction *
Current
dollars
30.39
35. 14
52.18
53.73
56.24
63.30
68.85
66.45
67.22
69.53
70.47
70.91
71.29
70.59
69.39
72.33
70.88
70.53
69.83
70.28
1948
dollars 2
52.31
57.23
70. 70
68.97
67.43
67.99
68.85
67.19
67.49
69.32
69.43
69.59
69.96
69. 62
68.98
72.26
71.02
71.46
70.54
70.92
FARM INCOME
Formers' cash receipts increased from April to May. In 1948 dollars, receipts were about 6 percent smaller than
in May of last year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
4
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
f INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
**FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, INTEREST AND TAXES, 1948 = 100.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) »
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
_
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: April _ivo.a-.y
Mav
June
July
August
_
September
October
_ _„ _
November
December
1949: January
_ __
February
March4
_ _ _
April4
Mav
1
2
3
4
-
- -
-_
_
_- -_- -
-
_
_ _
-- -
.
__
_ __ _
_ __ __ __ _ _ _
-- - --
724
981
1, 340
1,678
1, 765
1,857
2, 110
2, 542
2, 609
2,075
2, 119
2,437
2,693
2,722
3, 132
3,714
3, 314
2,740
2,383
1, 783
1, 973
1, 850
1,949
Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
taxes) 1948=
1948 dollars) *
2
100
49 8
53. 0
60 2
65. 1
67. 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100. 0
100.0
100. 4
100. 8
100. 8
100. 8
100. 4
100.0
99. 2
99. 6
99. 6
98. 4
98. 8
98. 8
98. 4
1 454
1, 851
2, 226
2, 578
2, 599
2, 687
2, 723
2,739
2, 609
2,075
2, 111
2,418
2,672
2,700
3, 120
3,714
3,341
2,751
2,393
1,812
1, 997
1,872
1,981
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
27
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
A 21 percent decrease in expenditure for nondurable goods from 1st to 2nd quarter of 1949 was only
partly offset by small increases in expenditure for durable goods and for services.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
200
200
DURABLE ^ G O O D S y < - ' s
'
1944
1946
1947
'
""
1948
COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944
1946 ..
1947
1948
67.5
111.4
147.4
164.8
177.7
35.3
67.5
87.5
96.5
103. 6
Durable
goods
6.7
6.9
16.2
21.0
22. 7
Services
25.5
37.0
43.6
47.3
51.4
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
172. 5
177.3
180. 1
181.0
101.4
103.7
104.3
105. 1
21.3
22.8
23. 7
22. 9
49.8
50. 8
52. 1
53.0
1949: First quarter 1
Second quarter
176.6
175. 0
101.4
99. 0
21. 5
22. 0
53.7
54.0
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Revised estimates of the national income and product series will be published in the Survey of Current
Business, July 1949.
Source: Department of£Commerce (except as noted).
CONSUMER CREDIT
Continuing large sales of automobiles were an important factor in the rise in consumer credit in May.
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
2 O
::::!:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::!::::::::::i^^
1943
1946
1947
J
1948
END OF YEAR
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S O N
D
J
F
M
*947
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
1948
END OF MONTH
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
Instalment credit
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1948: April _
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December,
1949: January
Februarv _
March
April 2. _
May 2
_
__
_ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_
_
Total
Automobile
sale
credit
Other sale
credit and
loans
Charge
accounts
Other
consumer
credit l
7,969
5,378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
4, 424
2, 001
4,000
6,434
8, 600
1,267
175
544
1, 151
1, 961
3, 157
1,8263, 456
5,283
6, 639
1,544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3,854
2,001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3,865
14,059
14, 311
14, 669
14, 723
14, 916
15, 231
15, 518
15, 739
16, 319
7,094
7,318
7,533
7,738
7,972
8, 190
8,233
8, 322
8,600
1,468
1,536
1,602
1,689
1,781
1,858
1, 889
1,922
1,961
5, 626
5,782
5, 931
6,049
6, 191
6,332
6, 344
6,400
6,639
3, 236
3,245
3,352
3, 185
3, 130
3,227
3,457
3,557
3,854
3,729
3,748
3,784
3,800
3, 814
3,814
3,828
3,860
3. 865
15, 749
15, 332
15, 361
15, 622
15, 847
8,425
8, 339
8,428
8, 631
8,884
1,965
1,996
2, 105
2, 241
2,386
6,460
6,343
6, 331
6,392
6,498
3,457
3, 176
3, 148
3, 258
3,249
3,867
3,817
3, 785
3,733
3,714
1
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
In May bank loans continued to decline and banks increased their holdings of Government securities by more than
$1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
125
125
100
100
75
50
25
25
1929
1939
1945
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M*J
J
A
S
0
N
D
1948
END OF YEAR
END OF MONTH
PR EL IMINA RY ES TIM A TE
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Council of Economic Advisers
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929 ...
1939
1945
1947
.
1948..
.. _
1948: ApriL
May ^
_.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January. . . _ _
February
March
April 1
May
.
1
-.
. .. .
_
.
- -
-
_ _
-
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49.5
40. 7
124.0
116.3
114.3
114. 3
114.6
113.9
114,8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114.2
114. 3
114. 5
113. 4
112. 5
112.5
113.4
36.0
17. 2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
38. 8
39.5
39.9
40. 1
40.6
41.7
41. 6
42.3
42. 5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
Total
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Digitized
30 for FRASER
13.5
23.4
97.9
78.2
71.8
75.5
75.0
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
72.5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71.2
72.6
U.S.
Government
securities
4.8
16.3
90.6
69.2
62.6
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60.9
62.0
63.2
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.1
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9.2
9.2
9.3
MONEY SUPPLY
In May as in April, the money supply increased slightly.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2OO
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
175
75
50
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
J
F
M
A
M
ENDOFYEAR
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
'947
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1948
END OF MONTH
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
rounriL of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1948: April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949* January z
February
3
March
.
April33 .
May
. .
..
_
. ..
._
__
63.3
112. 4
164.0
170.0
169. 1
165.0
165. 1
165.7
166.0
166.7
166.9
168. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168.2
166. 3
164. 2
165. 5
165. 7
Currency
outside
banks
6.4
18.8
26.7
26.5
26. 1
25.4
25.4
25.6
25. 5
25. 6
25.7
25.7
25. 9
26. 1
25.2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25.0
Adjusted
demand
deposits l
29. 8
60. 8
83.3
87. 1
85. 5
82.7
82.8
82. 7
83. 3
83.8
83. 9
85. 1
85. 2
85. 5
85.4
83. 4
81. 1
82. 4
82. 6
Time
deposits a
27. 1
32.7
54.0
56.4
57. 5
56.9
56. 9
57.4
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.3
57.0
57. 5
57.6
57. 8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes
deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
1
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
*
The cash deficit of about $ 2 . 6 billion during the 2nd quarter compares with a surplus of $1.6 billion during
the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1947
1946
1948
1949
1948
1949
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
x£l EXCESS OF CASH
1947
1946
CA LEN DAR
YEARS
PRELIMINARY
SOURCE:
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1
Calendar years
Federal cash
payments to
the public 1
Excess of receipts (+) or
payments ( — )
Calendar year total:
+ 54
41, 372
41, 426
1946
+ 5,695
44, 279
38, 584
1947
.__
+ 7,967
44, 920
36, 954
1948
_
-Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
12, 632
12, 244
1946" First quarter
_
_ _
+ 388
— 2 547
9, 462
Second quarter
12, 008
9, 702
Third quarter
_ _
_ _
8, 449
+ l' 252
-J-QCJQ
8 671
Fourth quarter
9 630
1947: First quarter
__ __ _
14, 345
9, 163
+ 5 182
Second quarter
9, 847
10, 628
— 781
Third quarter
10, 257
10, 220
— 37
Fourth quarter
9, 869
8, 536
+ 1 331
8, 637
15 037
1948' First quarter
+ 6 400
Second quarter _ _ _ _
_ __ _ _ _ _
10, 238
9, 033
+ 1 205
Third quarter
10 085
8 798
+ 1 287
— 925
9, 560
Fourth quarter
_
_
_ _
10, 486
13, 122
9, 931
1949: First quarter 2
+ 3 191
Second quarter __ _
8,760
10, 940
~2, 180
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously,
they were reported as expenditures.
2
Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE. — Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
32
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