Full text of Economic Indicators : January 2004
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108th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 2004 (Includes data available as of February 6, 2004) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2004 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah, Chairman JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman SENATE SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas) JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama) JOHN SUNUNU (New Hampshire) LAMAR ALEXANDER (Tennessee) SUSAN M. COLLINS (Maine) JACK REED (Rhode Island) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL RYAN (Wisconsin) JENNIFER DUNN (Washington) PHIL ENGLISH (Pennsylvania) ADAM H. PUTNAM (Florida) RON PAUL (Texas) PETE STARK (California) CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York) MELVIN L. WATT (North Carolina) BARON P. HILL (Indiana) DONALD B. MARRON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS N. GREGORY MANKIW, Chairman HARVEY S. ROSEN, Member KRISTIN J. FORBES, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 2003, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.1 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 2000 dollars) rose 4.0 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.0 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2003 p .................... 2000: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2001: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2002: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2003: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV p ............ 1 GDP Exports and imports of goods and services Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment Net exports Exports 7,072.2 7,397.7 7,816.9 8,304.3 8,747.0 9,268.4 9,817.0 10,100.8 10,480.8 10,983.9 9,629.4 9,822.8 9,862.1 9,953.6 10,024.8 10,088.2 10,096.2 10,193.9 10,329.3 10,428.3 10,542.0 10,623.7 10,735.8 10,846.7 11,107.0 11,246.3 ¥93.6 ¥91.4 ¥96.2 ¥101.6 ¥159.9 ¥260.5 ¥379.5 ¥366.5 ¥426.3 ¥491.5 ¥346.4 ¥366.9 ¥400.7 ¥403.9 ¥381.3 ¥368.2 ¥364.9 ¥351.7 ¥365.6 ¥427.3 ¥435.9 ¥476.1 ¥487.6 ¥505.5 ¥490.6 ¥482.5 720.9 812.2 868.6 955.3 955.9 991.2 1,096.3 1,035.1 1,006.8 1,048.1 1,055.1 1,091.8 1,122.4 1,115.8 1,103.1 1,061.1 1,005.4 970.8 978.5 1,006.3 1,025.3 1,017.2 1,021.0 1,020.2 1,048.5 1,102.6 4,743.3 4,975.8 5,256.8 5,547.4 5,879.5 6,282.5 6,739.4 7,045.4 7,385.3 7,752.3 6,613.9 6,688.1 6,783.9 6,871.6 6,934.3 7,017.4 7,058.1 7,171.6 7,256.5 7,355.5 7,428.2 7,501.2 7,600.7 7,673.6 7,836.3 7,898.4 1,097.1 1,144.0 1,240.3 1,389.8 1,509.1 1,625.7 1,735.5 1,607.2 1,589.2 1,667.5 1,672.3 1,781.7 1,749.0 1,738.9 1,688.3 1,620.3 1,594.3 1,526.1 1,553.1 1,580.9 1,608.2 1,614.7 1,605.3 1,624.3 1,689.1 1,751.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 814.5 903.6 964.8 1,056.9 1,115.9 1,251.7 1,475.8 1,401.7 1,433.1 1,539.6 1,401.5 1,458.7 1,523.1 1,519.7 1,484.4 1,429.3 1,370.4 1,322.5 1,344.1 1,433.6 1,461.3 1,493.3 1,508.5 1,525.7 1,539.0 1,585.0 1,325.5 1,369.2 1,416.0 1,468.7 1,518.3 1,620.8 1,721.6 1,814.7 1,932.5 2,055.7 1,689.6 1,720.0 1,729.9 1,746.9 1,783.5 1,818.8 1,808.8 1,847.8 1,885.4 1,919.3 1,941.5 1,983.9 2,017.4 2,054.2 2,072.1 2,078.8 519.1 519.2 527.4 530.9 530.4 555.8 578.8 612.9 679.5 757.2 565.3 586.6 581.2 582.0 597.5 609.8 613.3 630.8 652.9 673.2 681.8 710.0 723.0 764.7 769.6 771.5 National defense 353.7 348.7 354.6 349.6 345.7 360.6 370.3 393.0 438.3 497.0 360.9 375.2 371.3 373.8 384.1 388.2 392.8 406.9 420.3 432.5 439.3 461.1 463.3 507.3 507.2 510.1 Nondefense 165.5 170.5 172.8 181.3 184.7 195.2 208.5 219.9 241.2 260.2 204.4 211.4 209.9 208.2 213.4 221.6 220.5 223.9 232.6 240.7 242.5 248.9 259.7 257.4 262.4 261.4 State and local 806.3 850.0 888.6 937.8 987.9 1,065.0 1,142.8 1,201.8 1,253.1 1,298.5 1,124.3 1,133.4 1,148.6 1,164.9 1,185.9 1,209.0 1,195.4 1,217.1 1,232.5 1,246.1 1,259.7 1,273.9 1,294.5 1,289.6 1,302.5 1,307.4 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,008.4 7,366.5 7,786.1 8,232.3 8,676.2 9,201.5 9,760.5 10,136.9 10,475.5 10,987.2 9,599.6 9,726.5 9,803.7 9,912.2 10,022.8 10,120.6 10,142.2 10,262.0 10,357.1 10,427.8 10,513.4 10,603.6 10,736.7 10,852.4 11,117.4 11,242.3 7,165.8 7,489.0 7,913.1 8,405.9 8,906.9 9,528.9 10,196.4 10,467.3 10,907.1 11,475.5 9,975.8 10,189.7 10,262.8 10,357.5 10,406.1 10,456.4 10,461.2 10,545.5 10,694.9 10,855.6 10,977.9 11,099.9 11,223.4 11,352.2 11,597.5 11,728.7 7,098.4 7,433.4 7,851.9 8,337.3 8,768.3 9,302.2 9,855.9 10,135.9 10,502.3 .............. 9,661.9 9,859.6 9,893.6 10,008.4 10,052.1 10,115.5 10,107.8 10,268.3 10,351.3 10,435.9 10,560.5 10,661.6 10,763.7 10,880.0 11,144.8 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1994 ......... 1995 ......... 1996 ......... 1997 ......... 1998 ......... 1999 ......... 2000 ......... 2001 ......... 2002 ......... 2003 p ........ 2000: I .... II ... III IV .. 2001: I .... II ... III IV .. 2002: I .... II ... III IV .. 2003: I .... II ... III IV p Gross domestic product 7,835.5 8,031.7 8,328.9 8,703.5 9,066.9 9,470.3 9,817.0 9,866.6 10,083.0 10,397.2 9,695.6 9,847.9 9,836.6 9,887.7 9,882.2 9,866.3 9,834.6 9,883.6 9,997.9 10,045.1 10,128.4 10,160.8 10,210.4 10,288.3 10,493.1 10,597.1 Personal consumption expenditures Nonresi- Resi- Change dential dential in prifixed fixed vate invest- invest- invenment ment tories 5,290.7 5,433.5 5,619.4 5,831.8 6,125.8 6,438.6 6,739.4 6,904.6 7,140.4 7,362.2 6,661.3 6,703.3 6,768.0 6,825.0 6,833.7 6,872.2 6,904.2 7,008.2 7,079.2 7,124.5 7,159.2 7,198.9 7,244.1 7,304.0 7,426.6 7,474.2 689.9 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,176.8 1,092.6 1,122.8 1,196.7 1,238.6 1,245.2 1,247.9 1,233.6 1,189.4 1,163.7 1,120.6 1,100.4 1,092.1 1,089.1 1,088.9 1,087.3 1,105.8 1,139.5 1,158.7 364.8 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.3 506.1 454.5 450.4 441.2 441.6 444.4 448.5 451.9 449.0 458.5 468.4 473.2 481.0 486.4 491.7 516.7 529.8 63.6 29.9 28.7 71.2 72.6 68.9 56.5 ¥36.0 5.7 ¥1.5 26.9 99.3 56.2 43.5 4.3 ¥28.8 ¥44.0 ¥75.5 ¥23.5 ¥8.0 32.8 21.5 1.6 ¥4.5 ¥9.1 6.1 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total ¥79.4 ¥71.0 ¥79.6 ¥104.6 ¥203.7 ¥296.2 ¥379.5 ¥398.1 ¥470.6 ¥505.5 ¥350.6 ¥374.5 ¥395.6 ¥397.2 ¥385.9 ¥391.7 ¥401.3 ¥413.4 ¥431.2 ¥467.6 ¥471.9 ¥511.5 ¥490.0 ¥526.0 ¥505.2 ¥500.7 706.5 778.2 843.4 943.7 966.5 1,008.2 1,096.3 1,039.0 1,014.2 1,033.9 1,060.9 1,092.0 1,120.0 1,112.3 1,099.6 1,060.9 1,010.6 984.8 995.4 1,016.5 1,027.3 1,017.5 1,012.4 1,009.6 1,033.7 1,079.9 785.9 849.1 923.0 1,048.3 1,170.3 1,304.4 1,475.8 1,437.1 1,484.7 1,539.4 1,411.5 1,466.5 1,515.6 1,509.5 1,485.5 1,452.7 1,411.9 1,398.2 1,426.7 1,484.1 1,499.2 1,529.0 1,502.5 1,535.7 1,538.9 1,580.6 1,541.3 1,549.7 1,564.9 1,594.0 1,624.4 1,686.9 1,721.6 1,768.9 1,836.9 1,899.5 1,707.3 1,730.5 1,721.5 1,727.1 1,751.6 1,776.4 1,758.1 1,789.7 1,810.1 1,827.8 1,838.9 1,870.8 1,869.0 1,902.8 1,911.1 1,915.0 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Total National defense Nondefense 596.4 580.3 573.5 567.6 561.2 573.7 578.8 600.5 648.0 704.3 568.2 591.2 578.6 577.2 589.7 599.3 599.3 613.6 626.1 641.9 648.2 675.8 675.5 712.0 714.3 715.4 404.6 389.2 383.8 373.0 365.3 372.2 370.3 384.7 418.8 462.6 362.6 377.1 369.9 371.5 378.5 380.9 383.2 396.2 404.1 413.4 418.1 439.5 433.2 472.8 471.2 473.4 191.7 191.0 189.6 194.5 195.9 201.5 208.5 215.8 229.2 241.7 205.6 214.0 208.7 205.6 211.2 218.4 216.0 217.4 222.0 228.5 230.1 236.4 242.4 239.3 243.1 242.1 State and local 943.3 968.3 990.5 1,025.9 1,063.0 1,113.2 1,142.8 1,168.5 1,189.1 1,195.7 1,139.2 1,139.3 1,142.9 1,149.9 1,161.9 1,177.1 1,158.9 1,176.1 1,184.1 1,186.0 1,190.9 1,195.3 1,193.8 1,191.4 1,197.4 1,200.2 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,777.8 8,010.2 8,306.5 8,636.6 8,997.6 9,404.0 9,760.5 9,901.1 10,076.9 10,394.9 9,668.8 9,748.4 9,780.4 9,844.3 9,877.5 9,895.3 9,876.9 9,954.9 10,020.1 10,052.3 10,096.4 10,138.9 10,206.4 10,289.5 10,497.7 10,585.9 7,911.3 8,098.4 8,405.7 8,807.6 9,272.5 9,767.7 10,196.4 10,265.0 10,551.5 10,899.4 10,046.5 10,222.4 10,232.1 10,284.7 10,267.7 10,258.0 10,236.3 10,298.0 10,429.5 10,510.4 10,598.0 10,668.0 10,697.6 10,809.9 10,995.4 11,094.9 7,864.2 8,069.8 8,365.3 8,737.5 9,088.7 9,504.7 9,855.9 9,901.4 10,105.0 .............. 9,729.0 9,885.3 9,867.8 9,941.6 9,908.7 9,893.5 9,846.5 9,956.8 10,020.3 10,053.4 10,147.5 10,198.5 10,237.6 10,320.2 10,528.6 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 2000=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1994 ................. 1995 ................. 1996 ................. 1997 ................. 1998 ................. 1999 ................. 2000 ................. 2001 ................. 2002 ................. 2003 p ................ 2000: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2001: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2002: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2003: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV p ........ Gross domestic product 90.259 92.106 93.852 95.414 96.472 97.868 100.000 102.373 103.945 105.643 99.317 99.745 100.259 100.666 101.443 102.248 102.660 103.139 103.315 103.814 104.084 104.556 105.146 105.427 105.851 106.126 Total 89.654 91.576 93.547 95.124 95.979 97.575 100.000 102.038 103.429 105.298 99.289 99.772 100.236 100.684 101.472 102.113 102.229 102.332 102.503 103.241 103.757 104.199 104.923 105.060 105.517 105.676 Durable goods Nondurable goods 109.978 110.672 109.507 107.068 104.152 101.625 100.000 98.086 95.209 91.647 100.469 100.334 99.715 99.482 99.181 98.401 97.702 97.146 96.278 95.580 94.858 94.137 93.075 92.148 91.208 90.331 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 89.605 90.629 92.566 93.835 93.821 96.174 100.000 101.530 102.075 104.176 98.803 99.707 100.555 100.901 101.221 102.155 101.937 100.818 100.779 102.191 102.534 102.785 104.075 103.525 104.485 104.599 Gross private domestic investment Services 85.748 88.320 90.844 93.304 95.318 97.393 100.000 103.168 105.946 108.957 99.269 99.678 100.188 100.840 102.109 102.921 103.383 104.239 104.748 105.479 106.364 107.167 108.021 108.751 109.299 109.739 Nonresidential fixed 106.008 106.239 105.011 103.696 101.421 100.057 100.000 99.770 98.859 98.682 99.771 99.838 100.188 100.193 99.732 99.790 99.930 99.623 99.297 98.923 98.554 98.658 98.579 98.293 98.678 99.154 Exports and imports of Government consumption expenditures goods and services and gross investment Federal Residential fixed 82.754 85.770 87.609 89.843 92.239 95.780 100.000 104.629 107.106 111.200 98.693 99.648 100.431 101.274 102.586 103.862 105.642 106.395 106.468 106.752 106.987 108.173 109.871 110.475 111.311 112.985 Exports Imports Total 102.034 104.376 102.987 101.233 98.905 98.313 100.000 99.628 99.274 101.366 99.457 99.985 100.216 100.316 100.320 100.014 99.484 98.584 98.295 98.999 99.808 99.962 100.841 101.042 101.432 102.098 103.634 106.411 104.529 100.816 95.354 95.960 100.000 97.537 96.520 100.011 99.296 99.472 100.496 100.673 99.929 98.394 97.057 94.590 94.213 96.597 97.471 97.662 100.403 99.349 100.011 100.282 87.037 89.479 91.957 93.533 94.512 96.883 100.000 102.066 104.858 107.507 99.489 99.226 100.453 100.841 101.339 101.750 102.350 102.794 104.284 104.870 105.192 105.059 107.025 107.392 107.748 107.836 National defense Nondefense State and local 87.412 89.598 92.379 93.716 94.643 96.886 100.000 102.158 104.666 107.425 99.524 99.482 100.378 100.614 101.501 101.897 102.508 102.700 104.004 104.609 105.081 104.933 106.960 107.291 107.644 107.764 86.309 89.282 91.146 93.192 94.269 96.880 100.000 101.900 105.208 107.656 99.429 98.776 100.588 101.248 101.051 101.489 102.073 102.967 104.792 105.342 105.393 105.289 107.143 107.577 107.938 107.964 85.480 87.785 89.717 91.414 92.935 95.667 100.000 102.853 105.381 108.595 98.700 99.478 100.502 101.305 102.067 102.706 103.154 103.479 104.088 105.068 105.781 106.576 108.431 108.242 108.774 108.930 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2000=100 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) Period 1994 ...................................................................................... 1995 ...................................................................................... 1996 ...................................................................................... 1997 ...................................................................................... 1998 ...................................................................................... 1999 ...................................................................................... 2000 ...................................................................................... 2001 ...................................................................................... 2002 ...................................................................................... 2003 p .................................................................................... 1999: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2000: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2001: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2002: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2003: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV p ............................................................................ 1 Quarterly 79.816 81.814 84.842 88.658 92.359 96.469 100.000 100.506 102.710 105.911 94.892 95.677 96.794 98.514 98.764 100.315 100.200 100.721 100.664 100.503 100.180 100.679 101.843 102.324 103.172 103.502 104.008 104.801 106.887 107.947 GDP chain-type price index 90.265 92.115 93.859 95.415 96.475 97.868 100.000 102.376 103.949 105.658 97.274 97.701 98.022 98.475 99.292 99.780 100.241 100.687 101.478 102.273 102.676 103.078 103.364 103.738 104.123 104.571 105.163 105.440 105.870 106.159 percent changes are at annual rates. GDP implicit price deflator GDP (current dollars) 90.259 92.106 93.852 95.414 96.472 97.868 100.000 102.373 103.945 105.643 97.328 97.674 98.013 98.432 99.317 99.745 100.259 100.666 101.443 102.248 102.660 103.139 103.315 103.814 104.084 104.556 105.146 105.427 105.851 106.126 6.2 4.6 5.7 6.2 5.3 6.0 5.9 2.9 3.8 4.8 5.1 4.8 6.2 9.1 4.7 8.3 1.6 3.8 2.9 2.6 .3 3.9 5.4 3.9 4.4 3.1 4.3 4.2 10.0 5.1 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP chain-type price index 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 .5 2.2 3.1 3.4 3.4 4.8 7.3 1.0 6.4 ¥.5 2.1 ¥.2 ¥.6 ¥1.3 2.0 4.7 1.9 3.4 1.3 2.0 3.1 8.2 4.0 GDP implicit price deflator 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.9 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.7 3.6 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.1 3.2 1.6 1.9 .7 1.9 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.6 1.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–GROSS VALUE ADDED AND PRICE, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars)1 Unit nonlabor cost Period 1993 r 1994 r 1995 r 1996 r 1997 r 1998 r 1999 r 2000 r 2001 r 2002 r 2000: ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... I r .................................................. II r ................................................ III r ............................................... IV r ............................................... 2001: I r .................................................. II r ................................................ III r ............................................... IV r ............................................... 2002: I r .................................................. II r ................................................ III r ............................................... IV r ............................................... 2003: I r .................................................. II r ................................................ III r ............................................... Current dollars Chained (2000) dollars 3,397.8 3,669.5 3,879.5 4,109.5 4,401.8 4,655.0 4,950.8 5,272.2 5,299.3 5,410.6 5,196.5 5,252.7 5,316.9 5,322.4 5,300.3 5,301.0 5,284.8 5,311.1 5,322.9 5,408.0 5,432.0 5,479.3 5,479.2 5,581.7 5,708.8 3,604.4 3,832.0 3,999.1 4,222.3 4,493.0 4,735.5 5,009.9 5,272.2 5,235.4 5,339.0 5,227.0 5,257.7 5,302.7 5,301.2 5,272.5 5,237.1 5,207.1 5,225.1 5,255.0 5,326.6 5,368.7 5,405.7 5,412.1 5,505.2 5,618.3 Total Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.943 .958 .970 .973 .980 .983 .988 1.000 1.012 1.013 .994 .999 1.003 1.004 1.005 1.012 1.015 1.016 1.013 1.015 1.012 1.014 1.012 1.014 1.016 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business for 2000 and earlier periods are based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC); later estimates are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 0.623 .621 .628 .623 .626 .643 .652 .672 .687 .669 .667 .667 .675 .681 .685 .688 .691 .684 .673 .670 .667 .665 .668 .661 .654 Total 0.226 .227 .230 .225 .226 .226 .229 .237 .250 .253 .232 .236 .238 .242 .245 .248 .252 .252 .253 .253 .253 .252 .251 .245 .244 Consumption of fixed capital Taxes on production and imports 3 Net interest and miscellaneous payments 0.101 .102 .104 .103 .104 .104 .105 .108 .117 .116 .105 .107 .108 .110 .112 .115 .123 .116 .116 .116 .116 .115 .115 .113 .111 0.097 .099 .097 .096 .094 .092 .092 .093 .094 .098 .092 .093 .093 .095 .094 .094 .089 .097 .098 .098 .098 .099 .098 .095 .097 0.028 .026 .029 .026 .028 .030 .032 .036 .039 .039 .035 .036 .037 .037 .039 .039 .040 .039 .039 .039 .039 .038 .038 .037 .036 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Total 0.094 .109 .113 .124 .128 .114 .107 .090 .076 .092 .095 .096 .089 .081 .075 .075 .072 .080 .087 .093 .092 .096 .094 .108 .119 Taxes on corporate income 0.030 .035 .035 .036 .036 .033 .034 .032 .021 .019 .035 .035 .031 .028 .024 .024 .021 .014 .016 .019 .020 .021 .022 .021 .024 Profits after tax 5 0.064 .074 .078 .088 .092 .080 .073 .058 .055 .073 .060 .062 .058 .052 .052 .051 .051 .066 .071 .074 .072 .075 .072 .087 .095 4 Unit profits from current production. inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Note.—Data reflect the benchmark revision of the national income and product accounts released on December 10, 2003. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5 With 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period 1994 ................ 1995 ................ 1996 ................ 1997 ................ 1998 ................ 1999 ................ 2000 ................ 2001 ................ 2002 ................ 2003 p ............... 2000: I ........... II .......... III ........ IV ......... 2001: I ........... II .......... III ........ IV ......... 2002: I ........... II .......... III ........ IV ......... 2003: I ........... II .......... III ........ IV p ....... 1 With National income 6,122.3 6,453.9 6,840.1 7,292.2 7,752.8 8,236.7 8,795.2 8,981.2 9,290.8 .............. 8,680.5 8,750.4 8,858.3 8,891.7 8,942.2 8,946.2 8,894.7 9,141.8 9,190.5 9,281.1 9,314.9 9,376.9 9,434.8 9,584.9 9,781.7 .............. Compensation of employees Farm 3,997.2 4,193.3 4,390.5 4,661.7 5,019.4 5,357.1 5,782.7 5,940.4 6,019.1 6,185.6 5,694.1 5,727.2 5,837.4 5,871.9 5,935.6 5,936.0 5,940.8 5,949.3 5,972.4 6,014.8 6,031.1 6,058.0 6,115.8 6,164.8 6,213.6 6,248.1 Nonfarm 33.9 22.7 37.3 34.2 29.4 28.6 22.7 25.0 14.3 19.2 23.2 23.8 23.0 20.7 24.9 24.8 23.5 26.8 12.1 15.2 13.5 16.3 13.0 20.0 21.5 22.5 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 439.4 469.5 505.9 541.8 598.4 649.7 705.7 745.6 783.4 827.2 686.1 702.7 712.6 721.4 736.5 741.5 745.7 758.9 767.2 780.9 789.7 795.9 800.5 818.8 839.4 850.2 119.7 122.1 131.5 128.8 137.5 147.3 150.3 163.1 173.0 163.9 153.8 148.5 148.2 150.5 153.0 155.6 171.1 172.6 175.9 184.4 172.7 159.0 163.2 153.4 157.0 182.0 Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 600.3 696.7 786.2 868.5 801.6 851.3 817.9 770.4 904.2 ............ 832.6 833.0 811.8 794.3 755.8 748.6 713.6 863.6 880.1 901.9 899.8 934.9 927.1 1,022.8 1,124.2 ............ Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 564.6 656.0 736.1 812.3 738.5 776.8 759.3 705.9 742.7 ............ 766.8 773.5 756.3 740.7 730.7 731.4 685.8 675.7 702.7 738.9 745.1 784.2 780.9 793.6 864.2 ............ 577.1 674.3 733.0 798.2 718.3 775.9 773.4 696.8 745.0 ............ 795.4 784.8 762.6 750.8 735.5 733.0 671.5 647.0 690.6 738.0 756.3 795.0 809.0 792.5 865.9 ............ ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 14.1 20.2 1.0 ¥14.1 9.1 ¥2.2 .............. ¥28.6 ¥11.3 ¥6.3 ¥10.1 ¥4.9 ¥1.6 14.3 28.7 12.1 .9 ¥11.1 ¥10.8 ¥28.1 1.2 ¥1.8 .............. inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Capital consumption adjustment 35.7 40.7 50.1 56.2 63.1 74.5 58.6 64.5 161.5 228.2 65.8 59.6 55.5 53.6 25.1 17.2 27.8 187.9 177.4 163.0 154.7 150.7 146.3 229.2 260.1 277.1 Net interest and miscellaneous pay ments Taxes on production and imports 366.4 367.1 376.2 415.6 487.1 495.4 559.0 568.4 582.4 582.3 548.3 560.6 564.3 563.0 563.9 566.7 568.0 575.2 581.2 572.8 585.7 589.7 589.3 581.7 579.9 578.1 545.6 558.2 581.1 612.0 639.8 674.0 708.9 729.8 760.1 788.0 697.6 706.9 712.2 718.7 725.2 727.2 727.5 739.4 745.8 757.6 767.4 769.5 774.2 782.1 791.5 804.4 Less: Subsidies Busness current transfer payments Current surplus of government enterprises 32.2 34.0 34.3 32.9 35.4 44.2 44.3 55.3 38.2 49.2 44.4 44.4 44.3 44.1 52.5 58.3 67.2 43.2 40.1 37.9 38.2 36.7 44.7 56.9 46.3 48.8 43.3 46.9 53.1 49.9 64.7 67.4 87.1 92.5 89.8 95.1 81.3 85.0 88.9 93.1 97.0 102.4 71.1 99.5 94.7 90.6 87.8 86.2 90.1 92.5 97.1 100.8 8.6 11.4 12.7 12.6 10.3 10.1 5.3 1.2 2.8 4.9 7.9 7.1 4.2 2.2 3.0 1.6 .6 ¥.3 1.2 .6 5.4 4.1 6.3 5.8 3.7 4.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (2000) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1994 ............... 1995 ............... 1996 ............... 1997 ............... 1998 ............... 1999 ............... 2000 ............... 2001 ............... 2002 ............... 2003 p .............. 2000: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2001: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2002: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2003: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV p ...... 1 Includes Total personal consumption expenditures 5,290.7 5,433.5 5,619.4 5,831.8 6,125.8 6,438.6 6,739.4 6,904.6 7,140.4 7,362.2 6,661.3 6,703.3 6,768.0 6,825.0 6,833.7 6,872.2 6,904.2 7,008.2 7,079.2 7,124.5 7,159.2 7,198.9 7,244.1 7,304.0 7,426.6 7,474.2 Total durable goods 529.4 552.6 595.9 646.9 720.3 804.6 863.3 899.1 957.2 1,027.6 872.8 851.3 863.8 865.4 869.1 889.6 891.1 946.6 950.3 951.4 963.1 963.8 965.0 1,005.1 1,069.1 1,071.4 Motor vehicles and parts 276.2 272.3 285.4 304.7 339.0 372.4 386.5 405.4 423.3 441.3 403.3 376.1 383.2 383.5 384.5 401.3 397.9 437.8 426.5 420.1 427.8 419.0 414.5 429.5 466.9 454.3 Furniture and household equipment 156.8 173.3 193.4 216.3 244.7 280.7 312.9 331.4 364.7 400.7 306.7 311.3 315.9 317.8 322.5 326.7 332.9 343.7 356.2 362.8 366.2 373.5 374.7 391.7 412.4 424.0 Nondurable goods Other 104.2 111.2 119.6 127.3 137.6 151.7 163.9 162.4 170.2 187.7 162.9 163.9 164.7 164.1 162.3 161.7 160.8 164.8 168.2 169.6 170.1 173.0 177.6 185.9 191.4 196.1 Total nondurable goods 1,603.9 1,638.6 1,680.4 1,725.3 1,794.4 1,876.6 1,947.2 1,983.3 2,043.6 2,119.8 1,917.2 1,944.0 1,955.0 1,972.7 1,974.5 1,969.1 1,983.4 2,006.2 2,035.9 2,037.8 2,038.8 2,061.8 2,090.5 2,096.9 2,134.3 2,157.6 821.8 827.1 834.7 845.2 865.6 893.6 925.2 937.0 958.2 994.6 916.1 925.6 927.8 931.2 936.5 935.7 936.3 939.6 952.9 957.7 958.4 963.9 979.6 985.4 1,002.8 1,010.7 other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Clothing and shoes Food 218.5 227.4 238.7 246.0 263.1 282.7 297.7 303.5 319.1 334.4 291.3 296.4 301.1 302.1 300.2 300.5 304.2 309.1 317.6 317.9 317.6 323.4 325.7 331.9 339.5 340.4 Gasoline and oil 151.7 154.5 157.9 162.8 170.3 176.3 175.7 179.6 183.3 181.5 176.7 174.4 173.0 178.5 182.3 174.5 176.4 185.4 188.7 181.9 179.1 183.6 186.8 177.9 178.5 182.7 Services Fuel oil and coal 18.2 18.7 18.4 16.9 16.0 16.4 15.8 15.2 15.9 16.2 14.8 15.7 16.1 16.7 15.9 14.6 15.0 15.1 14.8 15.7 15.9 17.4 16.3 15.1 16.2 17.2 Other 397.7 414.1 432.9 456.6 481.1 508.6 532.9 548.0 567.3 593.8 518.4 531.9 537.1 544.1 539.4 543.6 551.3 557.9 563.1 564.8 567.5 573.8 582.2 587.4 598.3 607.3 Total services 1 3,176.6 3,259.9 3,356.0 3,468.0 3,615.0 3,758.0 3,928.8 4,022.4 4,141.8 4,223.8 3,871.1 3,908.2 3,949.3 3,986.8 3,989.6 4,013.3 4,029.3 4,057.4 4,095.3 4,137.0 4,159.4 4,175.4 4,190.7 4,208.4 4,237.2 4,259.0 Housing 869.3 887.5 901.1 922.5 948.8 978.6 1,006.5 1,033.9 1,061.9 1,085.4 995.7 1,003.3 1,009.9 1,016.9 1,025.0 1,031.4 1,036.5 1,042.7 1,051.1 1,059.0 1,065.7 1,071.7 1,078.0 1,082.8 1,088.7 1,092.3 Medical care 887.1 906.4 922.5 942.8 970.7 989.0 1,026.8 1,070.9 1,132.1 1,189.7 1,010.7 1,022.0 1,032.1 1,042.5 1,051.1 1,062.5 1,077.6 1,092.5 1,110.4 1,125.3 1,137.8 1,154.8 1,169.3 1,182.4 1,196.9 1,210.2 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 15.0 14.7 r 15.1 15.1 r 15.5 r 16.9 r 17.3 r 17.1 r 16.8 16.6 r 18.3 r 17.3 17.4 r 16.4 r 17.1 r 16.7 16.2 r 18.5 r 16.5 r 16.5 17.6 r 16.6 r 16.0 r 16.4 r 17.4 16.8 Seasonally adjusted data for retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks reflect revisions beginning 1993. Data also reflect a change in weight classification to 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight for light trucks (from 10,000 pounds). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $18.8 billion (annual rate) in December, following an increase of $31.9 billion in November. Wages and salaries fell $13.5 billion in December, following an increase of $18.3 billion in November. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees, received Period 1994 ................. 1995 ................. 1996 ................. 1997 ................. 1998 ................. 1999 ................. 2000 ................. 2001 ................. 2002 ................. 2003 p ................ 2002: Dec ........ 2003: Jan ........ Feb ........ Mar ....... Apr ........ May ....... June ...... July ....... Aug ....... Sept ....... Oct r ....... Nov r ...... Dec p ...... 1 With 2 With Total personal income 5,842.5 6,152.3 6,520.6 6,915.1 7,423.0 7,802.4 8,429.7 8,713.1 8,910.3 9,187.4 8,994.1 9,012.5 9,046.9 9,086.6 9,100.8 9,151.0 9,186.0 9,219.6 9,239.6 9,268.4 9,285.1 9,317.0 9,335.8 Total 3,979.6 4,177.0 4,386.9 4,664.6 5,020.1 5,352.0 5,782.7 5,940.4 6,019.1 6,185.6 6,067.4 6,088.2 6,118.9 6,136.2 6,142.1 6,171.4 6,184.9 6,200.2 6,214.9 6,225.8 6,238.4 6,259.5 6,246.4 Wage and salary disbursements 3,232.1 3,419.3 3,619.6 3,877.6 4,183.4 4,466.3 4,829.2 4,942.9 4,974.6 5,084.5 5,005.1 5,015.3 5,037.0 5,047.5 5,051.6 5,077.4 5,087.6 5,096.0 5,105.4 5,110.8 5,120.9 5,139.2 5,125.7 inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Supplements to wages and salaries 747.5 757.7 767.3 787.0 836.7 885.7 953.4 997.6 1,044.5 1,101.0 1,062.2 1,072.9 1,081.9 1,088.8 1,090.4 1,094.0 1,097.3 1,104.2 1,109.5 1,115.0 1,117.5 1,120.4 1,120.7 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 33.9 22.7 37.3 34.2 29.4 28.6 22.7 25.0 14.3 19.2 16.8 11.7 13.1 14.2 16.2 20.0 23.8 22.5 21.4 20.5 20.5 22.0 25.0 Nonfarm 439.4 469.5 505.9 541.8 598.4 649.7 705.7 745.6 783.4 827.2 795.3 801.3 796.5 803.9 806.4 819.5 830.5 837.2 836.7 844.3 844.5 850.5 855.6 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 119.7 122.1 131.5 128.8 137.5 147.3 150.3 163.1 173.0 163.9 154.0 158.3 163.3 168.1 160.8 153.3 146.2 151.4 157.0 162.6 172.4 181.9 191.7 Total 950.8 1,016.4 1,089.2 1,181.7 1,283.2 1,264.2 1,387.0 1,374.9 1,378.5 1,389.3 1,392.1 1,390.2 1,388.5 1,387.1 1,388.4 1,390.2 1,391.9 1,390.5 1,389.2 1,388.0 1,388.4 1,389.1 1,389.9 Personal interest income 716.8 763.2 793.0 848.7 933.2 928.6 1,011.0 1,003.7 982.4 960.6 978.9 974.6 970.5 966.7 965.5 964.9 964.3 960.7 957.1 953.4 951.5 949.7 947.8 Personal dividend income 234.0 253.2 296.2 333.0 349.9 335.6 376.1 371.2 396.2 428.7 413.2 415.6 418.0 420.4 422.9 425.3 427.6 429.8 432.2 434.6 436.9 439.4 442.1 Personal current transfer receipts 3 827.3 877.4 925.0 951.2 978.6 1,022.1 1,084.0 1,192.6 1,292.2 1,376.7 1,325.1 1,329.4 1,335.9 1,347.5 1,357.4 1,368.6 1,383.1 1,393.5 1,397.4 1,405.2 1,400.3 1,395.6 1,406.6 Less: Contributions for government social insurance 508.2 532.8 555.2 587.2 624.2 661.4 702.7 728.5 750.3 774.5 756.5 766.6 769.2 770.4 770.4 772.1 774.4 775.8 777.0 778.1 779.4 781.7 779.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2000) dollars fell at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003. Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2000) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1994 .............. 1995 .............. 1996 .............. 1997 .............. 1998 .............. 1999 .............. 2000 .............. 2001 .............. 2002 .............. 2003 p ............ 5,842.5 6,152.3 6,520.6 6,915.1 7,423.0 7,802.4 8,429.7 8,713.1 8,910.3 9,187.4 690.7 744.1 832.1 926.3 1,027.0 1,107.5 1,235.7 1,243.7 1,053.1 987.5 5,151.8 5,408.2 5,688.5 5,988.8 6,395.9 6,695.0 7,194.0 7,469.4 7,857.2 8,200.0 Chained (2000) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2000) dollars Dollars 4,902.4 5,157.3 5,460.0 5,770.5 6,119.1 6,536.4 7,025.6 7,342.2 7,674.0 8,036.2 249.5 250.9 228.4 218.3 276.8 158.6 168.5 127.2 183.2 163.8 5,746.4 5,905.7 6,080.9 6,295.8 6,663.9 6,861.3 7,194.0 7,320.2 7,596.7 7,787.4 19,555 20,287 21,091 21,940 23,161 23,968 25,467 26,156 27,223 28,116 21,812 22,153 22,546 23,065 24,131 24,564 25,467 25,633 26,320 26,701 18,004 18,665 19,490 20,323 21,291 22,491 23,858 24,671 25,588 26,581 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 20,082 20,382 20,835 21,365 22,183 23,050 23,858 24,178 24,739 25,243 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.3 4.6 1.8 3.7 .7 2.7 1.4 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.3 2.4 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.0 263,455 266,588 269,714 272,958 276,154 279,328 282,479 285,574 288,627 291,652 8.1 1.7 4.0 ¥.6 ¥1.3 ¥2.4 10.9 ¥5.5 9.6 3.1 ¥2.0 ¥.5 1.5 3.8 5.1 ¥1.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.1 2.8 1.0 2.5 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.5 281,308 282,037 282,873 283,699 284,402 285,142 285,970 286,781 287,468 288,202 289,019 289,818 290,492 291,221 292,043 292,851 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2000: I ......... II ........ III ...... IV ....... 2001: I ......... II ........ III ...... IV ....... 2002: I ......... II ........ III ...... IV ....... 2003: I ......... II ........ III ...... IV p ..... 8,266.2 8,372.3 8,514.4 8,565.8 8,663.5 8,690.2 8,727.4 8,771.2 8,803.6 8,912.2 8,944.0 8,981.3 9,048.7 9,145.9 9,242.5 9,312.6 1,207.0 1,231.1 1,248.0 1,256.6 1,302.1 1,308.7 1,120.9 1,243.0 1,069.9 1,043.7 1,053.0 1,045.6 1,009.4 1,000.2 936.0 1,004.3 7,059.2 7,141.2 7,266.4 7,309.3 7,361.3 7,381.6 7,606.4 7,528.1 7,733.7 7,868.6 7,891.0 7,935.6 8,039.2 8,145.8 8,306.6 8,308.3 6,888.0 6,970.0 7,076.3 7,168.1 7,219.7 7,302.3 7,395.7 7,451.0 7,538.1 7,646.8 7,722.0 7,789.2 7,888.3 7,956.7 8,118.5 8,181.2 171.2 171.3 190.1 141.2 141.7 79.3 210.7 77.1 195.6 221.7 169.0 146.4 151.0 189.0 188.1 127.2 7,109.7 7,157.5 7,249.3 7,259.6 7,254.6 7,228.8 7,440.6 7,356.6 7,544.8 7,621.5 7,605.2 7,615.8 7,662.0 7,753.5 7,872.3 7,862.1 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 6 25,094 25,320 25,688 25,764 25,884 25,887 26,599 26,250 26,903 27,302 27,303 27,381 27,675 27,971 28,443 28,371 25,274 25,378 25,627 25,589 25,508 25,352 26,019 25,652 26,246 26,445 26,314 26,278 26,376 26,624 26,956 26,847 23,511 23,680 r 23,713 r 23,768 23,982 23,926 24,057 24,028 24,101 24,143 r 24,438 24,626 24,721 24,771 r 24,840 24,937 25,081 25,430 25,522 r 24,222 24,382 24,610 24,681 25,007 25,243 25,522 25,701 25,882 26,165 26,350 26,833 26,971 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME According to the revised forecast for 2003, gross farm income is expected to rise $30.7 billion and net farm income, $19.6 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1993 ................................ 1994 ................................ 1995 ................................ 1996 ................................ 1997 ................................ 1998 ................................ 1999 ................................ 2000 ................................ 2001 ................................ 2002 ................................ 2003 r ............................... 2001: I r ......................... II r ........................ III r ...................... IV r ....................... 2002: I r ......................... II r ........................ III r ...................... IV r ....................... 2003: I r ......................... II r ........................ III r ...................... IV r ....................... 205.1 216.2 210.9 235.9 238.3 232.3 234.5 241.4 248.4 228.2 258.9 237.8 245.7 256.7 253.5 228.3 224.1 225.9 234.3 252.6 248.3 254.5 280.0 178.3 181.4 188.2 199.5 207.9 196.2 187.6 192.0 199.8 192.9 212.4 192.8 206.0 201.1 199.3 183.7 195.5 196.5 196.1 192.1 212.7 217.3 227.4 Livestock and products 90.5 88.3 87.2 92.9 96.5 94.1 95.6 99.5 106.4 93.5 105.6 105.0 106.1 105.2 109.4 89.4 92.2 95.9 96.4 91.0 100.8 114.3 116.4 1 Cash marketing receipts, Government payments, value of changes in inventories, other farm related cash income, and nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of operator residences. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. Crops 2 87.7 93.1 101.0 106.5 111.4 102.1 92.0 92.4 93.4 99.5 106.7 87.8 99.9 95.9 89.9 94.3 103.3 100.6 99.7 101.1 111.9 103.0 110.9 Value of inventory changes 3 ¥4.2 8.3 ¥5.0 7.9 .6 ¥.6 ¥.2 1.6 1.2 ¥3.1 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 ¥2.9 ¥3.1 ¥3.1 ¥3.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 Direct Government payments 4 13.4 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 12.4 21.5 22.9 20.7 11.0 17.4 18.1 10.9 27.5 26.4 21.6 4.1 4.7 13.5 34.2 6.4 7.4 21.5 Production expenses 158.3 164.8 171.2 178.1 187.1 186.0 187.7 193.6 197.8 192.8 204.0 190.9 204.0 199.1 197.3 183.6 195.3 196.4 196.0 184.5 204.3 208.8 218.4 Net farm income 46.8 51.4 39.7 57.8 51.3 46.2 46.8 47.8 50.6 35.3 54.9 46.9 41.7 57.5 56.2 44.8 28.7 29.5 38.3 68.1 44.0 45.8 61.6 3 Physical changes in beginning and ending year inventories of crop and livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period. 4 Includes only Government payments made directly to farmers. Note.—Data for 2003 are forecast. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 2003, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $73.4 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $54.4 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Retail Taxes on corporate income Total Net dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 564.6 656.0 736.1 812.3 738.5 487.6 563.2 634.2 701.4 635.5 119.9 162.2 172.6 193.0 165.9 367.7 401.0 461.6 508.4 469.6 147.0 173.7 188.8 209.0 173.5 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 30.9 27.3 39.8 47.6 52.3 46.2 43.1 51.9 64.2 73.4 577.1 674.3 733.0 798.2 718.3 193.7 218.7 231.7 246.1 248.3 383.3 455.6 501.4 552.1 470.0 234.7 254.2 297.6 334.5 351.6 148.6 201.4 203.8 217.6 118.3 ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 14.1 20.2 1998 4 ........... 1999 .............. 2000 .............. 2001 .............. 2002 .............. 2003 p ............ 738.5 776.8 759.3 705.9 742.7 ............ 635.5 655.3 613.6 544.4 589.4 ............ 165.4 194.3 200.2 225.6 255.1 ............ 470.1 461.1 413.4 318.8 334.3 ............ 157.0 150.6 144.3 54.0 73.3 ................ 32.7 33.1 24.4 24.1 22.0 ................ 53.2 55.5 59.7 51.6 49.1 .............. 66.4 65.2 59.6 71.1 76.7 .............. 718.3 775.9 773.4 696.8 745.0 ............ 248.3 258.6 265.2 201.1 195.0 ............ 470.0 517.2 508.2 495.6 549.9 .............. 351.6 337.4 377.9 373.2 398.3 430.9 118.3 179.9 130.3 122.4 151.6 .............. 20.2 1.0 ¥14.1 9.1 ¥2.2 ............ 2001: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2002: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2003: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV p ..... 730.7 731.4 685.8 675.7 702.7 738.9 745.1 784.2 780.9 793.6 864.2 ............ 581.3 578.6 541.7 476.0 551.4 594.8 594.0 617.2 632.1 645.1 706.4 ............ 228.3 219.9 211.1 243.2 267.5 260.6 249.0 243.4 261.8 260.6 274.6 ............ 353.0 358.8 330.6 232.7 283.8 334.2 345.0 373.9 370.3 384.5 431.8 ............ 86.8 79.3 50.1 ¥.2 42.0 69.2 87.2 95.1 87.1 80.3 97.7 ................ 26.0 27.1 25.0 18.4 18.5 25.3 21.5 22.8 28.1 21.1 21.5 ................ 46.1 47.7 54.1 58.5 48.8 53.9 45.7 47.9 39.8 42.6 51.0 .............. 64.2 66.8 74.3 79.1 75.8 79.7 77.5 73.9 72.9 85.0 84.3 .............. 735.5 733.0 671.5 647.0 690.6 738.0 756.3 795.0 809.0 792.5 865.9 ............ 219.1 217.2 198.2 170.1 181.6 197.1 198.6 202.9 213.9 211.4 230.6 ............ 516.4 515.8 473.3 477.0 509.0 540.9 557.7 592.1 595.0 581.0 635.4 .............. 380.0 371.5 368.7 372.6 382.3 393.5 404.3 413.1 420.3 427.5 434.3 441.5 136.4 144.3 104.6 104.4 126.7 147.4 153.4 179.1 174.7 153.5 201.1 .............. ¥4.9 ¥1.6 14.3 28.7 12.1 .9 ¥11.1 ¥10.8 ¥28.1 1.2 ¥1.8 ............ 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. 2 Includes 8 4 Data by industry beginning 1998 are based on the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and are not directly comparable with previous data shown here for 1993 through 1998, which are based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the fourth quarter of 2003, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2000) dollars rose $19.2 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $13.1 billion. There was an increase of $6.1 billion in inventories following a decrease of $9.1 billion in the third quarter. [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Structures 1994 ................................................................................. 1995 ................................................................................. 1996 ................................................................................. 1997 ................................................................................. 1998 ................................................................................. 1999 ................................................................................. 2000 ................................................................................. 2001 ................................................................................. 2002 ................................................................................. 2003 p ................................................................................ 1,099.6 1,134.0 1,234.3 1,387.7 1,524.1 1,642.6 1,735.5 1,590.6 1,572.0 1,635.7 1,042.3 1,109.6 1,209.2 1,320.6 1,455.0 1,576.3 1,679.0 1,625.7 1,565.8 1,633.5 689.9 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,176.8 1,092.6 1,122.8 232.3 247.1 261.1 280.1 294.5 293.2 313.2 305.2 249.0 237.2 2000: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2001: I ............................................................................. II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2002: I ............................................................................. II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2003: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV p ........................................................................ 1,678.0 1,788.6 1,742.6 1,732.7 1,682.2 1,608.5 1,573.1 1,498.4 1,538.2 1,555.8 1,598.2 1,595.8 1,581.6 1,599.9 1,656.1 1,705.3 1,651.1 1,689.1 1,686.4 1,689.4 1,677.8 1,638.0 1,616.1 1,570.7 1,560.9 1,563.2 1,565.4 1,573.5 1,577.7 1,601.4 1,661.0 1,693.9 1,196.7 1,238.6 1,245.2 1,247.9 1,233.6 1,189.4 1,163.7 1,120.6 1,100.4 1,092.1 1,089.1 1,088.9 1,087.3 1,105.8 1,139.5 1,158.7 299.9 312.5 319.7 320.6 315.8 311.3 313.1 280.8 262.2 252.2 242.4 239.0 236.5 238.8 237.7 235.9 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Equipment and software Residential 467.2 578.7 658.3 745.6 840.2 918.9 871.3 846.7 891.0 364.8 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.3 506.1 63.6 29.9 28.7 71.2 72.6 68.9 56.5 ¥36.0 5.7 ¥1.5 52.0 41.3 21.7 68.5 71.2 71.5 57.8 ¥36.3 9.3 .4 896.7 926.0 925.5 927.3 917.8 877.6 849.4 840.5 840.0 842.6 850.3 853.9 855.0 871.6 907.7 929.6 454.5 450.4 441.2 441.6 444.4 448.5 451.9 449.0 458.5 468.4 473.2 481.0 486.4 491.7 516.7 529.8 26.9 99.3 56.2 43.5 4.3 ¥28.8 ¥44.0 ¥75.5 ¥23.5 ¥8.0 32.8 21.5 1.6 ¥4.5 ¥9.1 6.1 41.5 93.2 58.8 37.8 ¥2.1 ¥27.0 ¥45.8 ¥70.3 ¥28.6 4.2 36.0 25.4 .3 ¥2.4 ¥5.9 9.7 c523.1 Total Nonfarm Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Residential Equipment and software Period 1994 ............................. 1995 ............................. 1996 ............................. 1997 ............................. 1998 ............................. 1999 ............................. 2000 ............................. 2001 ............................. 2002 ............................. 2003 p ............................ 2000: I ........................ II ....................... III ..................... IV ...................... 2001: I ........................ II ....................... III ..................... IV ...................... 2002: I ........................ II ....................... III ..................... IV ...................... 2003: I ........................ II ....................... III ..................... IV p .................... Total fixed investment 1,042.3 1,109.6 1,209.2 1,320.6 1,455.0 1,576.3 1,679.0 1,625.7 1,565.8 1,633.5 1,651.1 1,689.1 1,686.4 1,689.4 1,677.8 1,638.0 1,616.1 1,570.7 1,560.9 1,563.2 1,565.4 1,573.5 1,577.7 1,601.4 1,661.0 1,693.9 Structures Information processing equipment and software Total nonresidential 689.9 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,176.8 1,092.6 1,122.8 1,196.7 1,238.6 1,245.2 1,247.9 1,233.6 1,189.4 1,163.7 1,120.6 1,100.4 1,092.1 1,089.1 1,088.9 1,087.3 1,105.8 1,139.5 1,158.7 Structures 232.3 247.1 261.1 280.1 294.5 293.2 313.2 305.2 249.0 237.2 299.9 312.5 319.7 320.6 315.8 311.3 313.1 280.8 262.2 252.2 242.4 239.0 236.5 238.8 237.7 235.9 Total Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Software 155.7 182.7 218.9 269.9 328.9 398.5 467.6 457.6 459.3 522.1 442.9 465.7 473.8 488.1 482.8 460.8 445.4 441.4 444.2 454.7 470.0 468.2 487.2 506.4 537.7 557.1 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 65.1 71.6 84.1 108.8 129.4 157.2 176.2 171.8 167.5 182.3 171.4 175.8 176.2 181.2 179.5 173.7 169.7 164.4 163.3 165.7 171.2 169.7 174.4 178.6 185.0 191.0 Total 467.2 523.1 578.7 658.3 745.6 840.2 918.9 871.3 846.7 891.0 896.7 926.0 925.5 927.3 917.8 877.6 849.4 840.5 840.0 842.6 850.3 853.9 855.0 871.6 907.7 929.6 1 For details on this component, see Survey of Current Business, Tables 5.3.6, 5.3.1 for growth rates, 5.3.2 for contributions, and 5.3.3 for quantity indexes. 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. Transportation equipment Other equipment Total residential Total 2 Single family Other Industrial equipment 99.4 107.0 117.2 127.3 143.2 158.0 190.0 182.3 177.1 194.5 179.9 187.7 192.3 200.2 192.9 182.8 178.5 175.0 172.9 178.5 179.8 177.1 184.3 188.6 200.2 205.0 122.9 134.9 139.9 143.0 148.1 147.9 159.2 145.0 136.1 130.7 156.3 159.7 161.9 159.0 160.0 146.9 139.4 133.8 140.3 135.0 135.0 133.9 131.4 131.0 131.4 129.1 111.4 120.6 125.4 135.9 145.4 167.7 160.8 142.6 128.2 115.5 166.1 167.0 159.5 150.7 144.2 144.3 137.9 143.9 135.0 128.7 122.0 127.2 117.4 115.1 113.7 115.6 96.5 101.7 105.6 115.8 125.7 126.7 131.2 126.4 124.3 128.2 131.3 133.6 130.4 129.6 131.1 125.9 126.9 121.7 120.8 125.1 125.1 126.1 122.6 123.9 131.1 135.1 364.8 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.3 506.1 454.5 450.4 441.2 441.6 444.4 448.5 451.9 449.0 458.5 468.4 473.2 481.0 486.4 491.7 516.7 529.8 358.6 346.8 375.1 382.4 411.9 436.6 439.5 441.1 462.7 497.8 447.1 443.1 433.8 434.2 437.1 441.2 444.5 441.6 451.0 460.8 465.6 473.3 478.5 483.5 508.2 521.0 198.9 180.6 197.3 196.6 218.1 234.2 236.8 237.2 246.9 269.8 243.5 239.7 232.4 231.5 235.4 238.3 239.6 235.3 239.4 245.6 248.7 253.7 259.0 259.0 271.9 289.3 Equipment 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Total by industry Forestry, fishing Con- Manuand Min- Utili- strucfacagriing ties turtion culing tural services ProFor Real fesscomTransesional, Health panies portaFiscien- care withWhole- Retail tion Infor- nance tate and tific, and Other out sale and maand 1 and social emtrade trade waretion insur- rental and tech- assisployhousance leasnical tance ees ing ing services For companies with employees 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .............................. ............................. .............................. ............................. ............................. .............................. 807.1 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 871.8 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 970.9 896.5 0.9 40.4 36.0 26.9 203.6 29.2 57.3 51.3 96.5 118.2 85.2 22.3 47.1 81.7 74.4 1,047.0 974.6 1.7 30.6 42.8 23.1 196.4 32.4 64.1 57.3 122.8 130.1 100.6 29.5 51.3 91.8 72.3 1,161.0 1,089.9 1.5 42.5 61.3 25.0 214.8 33.6 69.8 59.9 160.2 133.7 92.5 34.1 52.2 108.9 71.2 1,109.9 1,053.2 1.5 51.1 82.8 24.8 192.4 29.7 66.8 57.5 146.3 131.1 83.1 30.5 52.9 102.6 56.7 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. 10 NOTE.—Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): 1997. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In January, employment was 138.6 million and unemployment was 8.3 million. (Series reflects annual revision.) [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period 1994 2 .................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 3 .................... 1998 3 .................... 1999 3 .................... 2000 3 .................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ...................... 2003 ...................... 2003: Jan 3 r ......... Feb 3 r ........ Mar r .......... Apr r ........... May r .......... June r ......... July r .......... Aug r .......... Sept r .......... Oct r ........... Nov r .......... Dec r ........... 2004: Jan 3 .......... Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force 196,814 198,584 200,591 203,133 205,220 207,753 212,577 215,092 217,570 221,168 219,897 220,114 220,317 220,540 220,768 221,014 221,252 221,507 221,779 222,039 222,279 222,509 222,161 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 142,583 143,734 144,863 146,510 145,875 145,898 145,818 146,377 146,462 146,917 146,652 146,622 146,610 146,892 147,187 146,878 146,863 Percent 1 Unemployment Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 133,488 136,891 136,933 136,485 137,736 137,447 137,318 137,300 137,578 137,505 137,673 137,604 137,693 137,644 138,095 138,533 138,479 138,566 63,294 64,085 64,897 66,284 67,135 67,761 69,634 69,776 69,734 70,415 69,940 70,174 70,213 70,290 70,182 70,190 70,269 70,324 70,596 70,726 70,964 71,099 71,329 53,606 54,396 55,311 56,613 57,278 58,555 60,067 60,417 60,420 61,402 61,391 61,106 61,219 61,343 61,397 61,610 61,479 61,467 61,191 61,524 61,597 61,521 61,260 6,161 6,419 6,500 6,661 7,051 7,172 7,189 6,740 6,332 5,919 6,117 6,039 5,868 5,945 5,926 5,873 5,856 5,902 5,857 5,846 5,972 5,859 5,977 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 2 Data beginning January 1994 reflect a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. Total 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,774 8,428 8,581 8,519 8,799 8,957 9,245 9,048 8,929 8,966 8,797 8,653 8,398 8,297 Men 20 years and over 3,627 3,239 3,146 2,882 2,580 2,433 2,376 3,040 3,896 4,209 4,075 4,068 3,995 4,220 4,341 4,485 4,391 4,358 4,309 4,216 4,224 3,945 3,842 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 3,049 2,819 2,783 2,585 2,424 2,285 2,235 2,599 3,228 3,314 3,100 3,253 3,271 3,289 3,302 3,379 3,356 3,369 3,417 3,375 3,320 3,326 3,255 1,320 1,346 1,306 1,271 1,205 1,162 1,081 1,162 1,253 1,251 1,254 1,260 1,252 1,290 1,314 1,381 1,301 1,202 1,240 1,205 1,109 1,128 1,200 Not in labor force 65,758 66,280 66,647 66,836 67,547 68,385 69,994 71,359 72,707 74,658 74,022 74,216 74,499 74,163 74,306 74,097 74,600 74,884 75,168 75,147 75,093 75,631 75,298 Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 66.8 66.6 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.2 66.4 66.3 66.5 66.3 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.2 66.0 66.1 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.3 64.4 63.7 62.7 62.3 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.2 62.2 62.1 62.2 62.3 62.2 62.4 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 NOTE.—Data reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions released on January 9, 2004. Beginning January 2004 data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for information on the revisions and for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January, the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent in December. (Series reflects annual revision.) [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years White By selected groups Black or African American Asian (NSA) Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families (NSA) Full-time workers Part-time workers 1994 2 ....................... 1995 ......................... 1996 ......................... 1997 ......................... 1998 ......................... 1999 ......................... 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 ........................ 2003 ........................ 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.1 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.0 14.6 13.9 13.1 14.7 16.5 17.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.2 5.1 5.2 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 8.0 7.6 8.6 10.2 10.8 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 3.6 4.5 5.9 6.0 9.9 9.3 8.9 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.7 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.8 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 8.0 8.5 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 4.7 5.9 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.1 r 5.2 5.5 2003: Jan r .............. Feb r .............. Mar r ............. Apr r .............. May r ............. June r ............ July r ............. Aug r ............. Sept r ............ Oct r .............. Nov r ............. Dec ............... 2004: Jan ............... 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 19.0 18.2 16.9 17.5 17.1 15.7 16.1 16.7 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.9 10.5 10.7 10.3 10.8 10.7 11.6 11.1 10.9 11.1 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.5 5.6 6.0 6.5 5.8 5.1 7.8 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.4 6.6 7.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.3 8.0 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.7 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.3 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.4 1 Beginning in 2003, persons who selected this race group only. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. 2 See footnote 2, p. 11. 12 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose; the percentages for 5–14 weeks and for 15–26 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 19.8 weeks and the median duration rose to 10.7 weeks. (Series reflects annual revision.) [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1994 3 ...................................... 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 ........................................ 1999 ........................................ 2000 ........................................ 2001 ........................................ 2002 ........................................ 2003 ........................................ 2003: Jan r ............................. Feb r ............................. Mar r ............................ Apr r ............................. May r ............................ June r ........................... July r ............................ Aug r ............................ Sept r ............................ Oct r ............................. Nov r ............................ Dec .............................. 2004: Jan .............................. 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,774 8,428 8,581 8,519 8,799 8,957 9,245 9,048 8,929 8,966 8,797 8,653 8,398 8,297 34.1 36.5 36.4 37.7 42.2 43.7 44.9 42.0 34.5 31.7 32.7 32.6 32.8 32.1 33.9 31.8 30.4 30.6 30.6 31.1 30.3 31.0 31.2 30.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.9 32.3 30.8 29.8 30.1 30.3 29.8 30.0 29.3 30.2 30.0 29.5 30.4 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.6 15.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 12.3 12.8 11.8 14.0 16.3 16.4 16.9 15.1 15.8 16.0 15.4 16.2 17.8 17.5 16.0 16.6 16.7 17.8 17.5 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8 14.1 12.3 11.4 11.8 18.3 22.1 20.3 22.0 21.5 21.9 21.4 21.8 21.8 22.4 23.0 22.9 23.5 22.3 22.7 1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Railroad (RR) program, Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 3 See footnote 2, p. 11. 18.8 16.6 16.7 15.8 14.5 13.4 12.6 13.1 16.6 19.2 18.5 18.7 18.1 19.4 19.2 19.6 19.3 19.2 19.6 19.4 20.0 19.6 19.8 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.8 9.1 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.1 11.7 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.7 47.7 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.5 44.6 44.2 51.1 55.0 55.1 54.9 55.9 55.5 55.0 56.2 54.3 55.4 55.4 55.6 55.2 54.2 54.6 52.3 9.9 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 13.3 13.7 12.3 10.3 9.3 9.8 9.1 9.3 9.3 8.7 9.7 8.9 8.9 9.4 8.9 10.7 9.3 9.6 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.3 34.1 34.5 29.9 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.0 28.9 28.2 28.4 27.4 28.5 28.0 28.0 30.0 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.0 7.6 6.8 6.4 7.3 7.2 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.3 7.7 7.4 7.1 8.2 8.1 2,670 2,572 2,595 2,323 2,222 2,188 2,110 2,974 3,585 3,533 3,361 3,429 3,514 3,622 3,716 3,726 3,625 3,630 3,626 3,515 3,367 3,259 .............. 340 357 356 323 321 298 301 404 407 402 388 409 423 443 432 427 406 402 403 382 363 356 p 346 2,739 2,633 2,650 2,366 2,257 2,219 2,141 3,007 r 3,619 3,571 3,968 4,172 4,348 3,708 3,270 3,674 3,449 3,379 3,224 2,807 3,212 3,554 ................. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Unemployment data reflect annual revisions released on January 9, 2004. See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 112,000 in January. (Series reflects annual revision.) [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period 1994 ..................................... 1995 ..................................... 1996 ..................................... 1997 ..................................... 1998 ..................................... 1999 ..................................... 2000 ..................................... 2001 ..................................... 2002 r .................................... 2003 p ................................... 2003: Jan r .......................... Feb r .......................... Mar r .......................... Apr r .......................... May r ......................... June r ........................ July r ......................... Aug r .......................... Sept r ......................... Oct r ........................... Nov r .......................... Dec p .......................... 2004: Jan p ........................... Total nonagricultural employment 114,291 117,298 119,708 122,776 125,930 128,993 131,785 131,826 130,341 129,932 130,190 130,031 129,921 129,901 129,873 129,859 129,814 129,789 129,856 129,944 130,027 130,043 130,155 Total 2 22,774 23,156 23,410 23,886 24,354 24,465 24,649 23,873 22,557 21,817 22,122 22,005 21,949 21,880 21,859 21,805 21,744 21,712 21,697 21,674 21,686 21,670 21,677 Construction 5,095 5,274 5,536 5,813 6,149 6,545 6,787 6,826 6,716 6,722 6,712 6,661 6,661 6,689 6,715 6,718 6,721 6,739 6,754 6,754 6,771 6,784 6,808 Manufacturing 17,021 17,241 17,237 17,419 17,560 17,322 17,263 16,441 15,259 14,524 14,838 14,770 14,717 14,623 14,574 14,514 14,452 14,404 14,375 14,351 14,344 14,317 14,306 Service-providing industries Total 91,517 94,142 96,299 98,890 101,576 104,528 107,136 107,952 107,784 108,115 108,068 108,026 107,972 108,021 108,014 108,054 108,070 108,077 108,159 108,270 108,341 108,373 108,478 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. Trade, transportation, and utilities Total 3 Retail trade 23,128 23,834 24,239 24,700 25,186 25,771 26,225 25,983 25,497 25,275 25,375 25,352 25,328 25,326 25,302 25,266 25,225 25,225 25,252 25,272 25,261 25,218 25,319 13,491 13,897 14,143 14,389 14,609 14,970 15,280 15,239 15,025 14,912 14,946 14,925 14,912 14,929 14,917 14,908 14,897 14,912 14,927 14,948 14,922 14,881 14,957 Financial activities 6,867 6,827 6,969 7,178 7,462 7,648 7,687 7,807 7,847 7,974 7,915 7,933 7,945 7,968 7,987 7,988 7,995 7,996 8,004 7,990 7,985 7,980 7,982 Profes- Educasional tion Leisure and and and busihospihealth ness tality services services 12,174 12,844 13,462 14,335 15,147 15,957 16,666 16,476 15,976 15,998 15,902 15,906 15,871 15,897 15,943 15,967 16,021 15,998 16,051 16,070 16,114 16,159 16,137 12,807 13,289 13,683 14,087 14,446 14,798 15,109 15,645 16,199 16,576 16,432 16,465 16,488 16,538 16,564 16,576 16,568 16,591 16,622 16,678 16,705 16,734 16,756 10,100 10,501 10,777 11,018 11,232 11,543 11,862 12,036 11,986 12,125 12,171 12,116 12,107 12,084 12,078 12,097 12,118 12,117 12,126 12,147 12,178 12,193 12,214 2 Includes Government Total 7,166 7,415 7,630 7,909 8,194 8,506 8,799 8,887 8,767 8,590 8,655 8,629 8,617 8,611 8,599 8,593 8,582 8,570 8,565 8,553 8,554 8,550 8,544 19,275 19,432 19,539 19,664 19,909 20,307 20,790 21,118 21,513 21,576 21,618 21,625 21,616 21,597 21,541 21,567 21,561 21,580 21,539 21,560 21,544 21,539 21,526 Federal 3,018 2,949 2,877 2,806 2,772 2,769 2,865 2,764 2,766 2,756 2,785 2,787 2,789 2,768 2,769 2,763 2,758 2,750 2,747 2,736 2,723 2,722 2,723 natural resources and mining, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. 4 Other services and information. Note.—Data classified by industry based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings,June 2003. Data reflect annual revisions. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1999; not seasonally adjusted data revised beginning April 2002. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 14 Other services 4 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period 1994 ..................... 1995 ..................... 1996 .................... 1997 .................... 1998 ..................... 1999 ..................... 2000 .................... 2001 ..................... 2002 r .................... 2003 p .................... 2003: Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r .......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r .......... Sept r ......... Oct r ........... Nov r .......... Dec p .......... 2004: Jan p .......... Total private nonagricultural 1 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.0 33.9 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.8 33.5 33.7 Total 41.7 41.3 41.3 41.7 41.4 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.5 40.4 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.1 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.8 40.6 40.9 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 Current dollars $11.32 11.64 12.03 12.49 13.00 13.47 14.00 14.53 14.95 15.35 15.18 15.27 15.27 15.25 15.31 15.34 15.40 15.41 15.41 15.43 15.46 15.47 15.49 1982 dollars 2 $7.53 7.53 7.57 7.68 7.89 8.00 8.03 8.11 8.24 8.27 8.26 8.25 8.21 8.24 8.28 8.28 8.31 8.28 8.25 8.28 8.32 8.31 .............. Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing $12.04 12.34 12.75 13.14 13.45 13.85 14.32 14.76 15.29 15.74 15.58 15.62 15.63 15.64 15.68 15.72 15.73 15.79 15.84 15.83 15.89 15.94 15.94 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $390.73 399.53 412.74 431.25 448.04 462.49 480.41 493.20 506.07 517.42 513.08 514.60 516.13 512.40 515.95 516.96 517.44 517.78 517.78 519.99 522.55 518.25 522.01 $259.97 258.43 259.58 265.22 271.87 274.64 275.62 275.38 278.83 278.78 279.15 278.16 277.49 276.82 279.19 279.14 279.09 278.08 277.33 278.96 281.09 278.33 .............. $502.12 509.26 526.55 548.22 557.12 573.17 590.65 595.19 618.75 636.10 627.87 631.05 631.45 627.16 630.34 633.52 630.77 634.76 639.94 641.12 648.31 647.16 651.95 $558.53 571.57 588.48 609.48 629.75 655.11 685.78 695.89 711.82 727.20 726.79 709.14 728.72 714.42 729.58 728.45 726.55 731.89 731.52 731.90 733.81 726.57 734.21 $265.77 272.56 282.76 295.97 310.34 321.63 333.38 346.16 360.81 367.26 365.55 365.29 366.17 364.93 365.60 366.83 366.56 369.26 368.95 369.26 369.87 367.48 369.56 Current dollars 3.3 2.3 3.3 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.7 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.0 1.7 1982 dollars 0.7 ¥.6 .4 2.2 2.5 1.0 .4 ¥.1 1.3 ¥.0 .4 .0 ¥.1 ¥.2 .7 ¥.2 .3 ¥.4 ¥.7 ¥.0 .6 ¥.6 .............. NOTE.—See Note, p. 14. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .................................................................. ................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. 123.5 126.7 130.6 135.1 139.8 144.6 150.9 157.2 162.3 168.8 119.7 123.1 127.3 132.3 137.4 142.2 147.7 153.3 157.5 162.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.8 145.2 150.2 158.6 166.7 174.6 185.8 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Seasonally adjusted 2000: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2001: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2002: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2003: Mar ................................................................. June ................................................................ Sept ................................................................. Dec .................................................................. 1 Employer 146.6 148.2 149.7 151.1 152.8 154.2 155.7 157.4 158.8 160.5 161.5 162.7 164.9 166.3 168.0 169.2 143.9 145.4 146.7 147.9 149.4 150.8 152.0 153.4 154.8 156.2 156.9 157.7 159.3 160.3 161.7 162.5 costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 153.2 155.1 157.0 158.7 160.8 162.5 164.7 166.8 168.6 170.8 172.6 174.7 178.9 181.3 183.8 186.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 .9 1.1 .9 1.0 1.1 .9 1.1 .6 .7 1.4 .8 1.0 .7 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.2 4.0 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 2.7 3.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 6.4 Not seasonally adjusted 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 1.0 .9 .8 .9 .9 .9 .4 .5 1.0 .6 .9 .5 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.4 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1994 r ....................... 1995 r ....................... 1996 r ....................... 1997 r ....................... 1998 r ....................... 1999 r ....................... 2000 r ....................... 2001 r ....................... 2002r ....................... 2003p* ..................... 101.4 101.7 104.5 106.5 109.3 112.5 115.7 118.3 123.9 129.2 101.5 102.1 104.7 106.4 109.2 112.2 115.3 117.8 123.5 128.7 108.2 111.4 116.5 122.7 128.6 135.2 140.5 140.6 143.8 149.1 108.3 111.8 116.8 122.8 128.9 135.6 140.8 141.0 144.2 149.5 106.7 109.5 111.5 115.2 117.7 120.2 121.4 118.9 116.1 115.4 106.7 109.5 111.6 115.4 118.1 120.8 122.1 119.7 116.7 116.2 103.8 106.0 109.5 113.0 119.7 125.5 134.2 139.7 142.7 147.0 103.7 106.0 109.4 112.8 119.4 125.0 133.7 138.9 142.0 146.1 99.2 98.9 99.5 100.5 105.0 107.8 111.6 113.0 113.6 114.4 99.1 98.9 99.4 100.3 104.7 107.3 111.2 112.3 113.0 113.7 102.3 104.3 104.8 106.1 109.5 111.6 116.0 118.1 115.1 113.8 102.2 103.8 104.5 106.0 109.3 111.3 116.0 118.0 115.0 113.5 103.9 105.7 107.4 109.0 109.7 110.7 112.7 114.9 115.8 117.4 104.0 105.8 107.3 109.1 109.9 111.1 113.3 115.4 116.4 117.9 2000: Ir .................. II r ............... III r ............... IV r ............... 2001: I r .................. II r ................ III r ............... IV r ............... 2002: I r .................. II r ................ III r ............... IV r ............... 2003: I r .................. II r ................ III r .............. IV p * ............ 113.7 116.0 115.8 116.9 116.8 117.8 118.2 120.3 122.7 123.2 124.7 125.1 126.1 128.2 130.9 131.5 113.5 115.6 115.5 116.4 116.3 117.3 117.8 119.7 122.5 122.8 124.1 124.6 125.6 127.5 130.4 131.3 138.6 141.1 140.8 141.5 141.2 140.8 139.9 140.6 142.6 143.1 144.6 145.1 145.8 147.3 151.0 152.4 138.8 141.4 141.1 141.8 141.5 141.2 140.3 140.8 143.1 143.4 144.8 145.4 146.3 147.6 151.3 152.9 121.9 121.6 121.6 121.0 120.9 119.6 118.3 116.9 116.2 116.1 116.0 116.0 115.7 114.9 115.3 115.8 122.4 122.3 122.2 121.9 121.7 120.4 119.1 117.6 116.8 116.8 116.7 116.7 116.5 115.8 116.1 116.5 132.1 132.7 135.4 136.3 138.1 139.2 140.2 141.4 141.7 142.6 143.0 143.5 145.0 146.9 147.9 148.2 131.7 132.1 134.9 135.6 137.4 138.3 139.3 140.6 141.0 141.9 142.3 142.8 144.1 145.8 147.0 147.5 111.2 110.8 112.1 112.0 112.5 112.4 112.9 114.1 114.0 113.7 113.5 113.3 113.4 114.7 114.8 114.8 110.9 110.3 111.7 111.4 111.9 111.7 112.3 113.5 113.4 113.1 112.9 112.7 112.7 113.8 114.1 114.2 116.1 114.4 116.9 116.5 118.2 118.2 118.6 117.6 115.5 115.7 114.7 114.7 115.1 114.6 112.9 112.7 116.1 114.3 116.9 116.5 118.1 117.9 118.3 117.5 115.1 115.6 114.6 114.6 114.8 114.4 112.7 112.4 112.1 112.6 112.9 113.3 114.1 115.0 115.2 115.5 115.3 115.7 115.9 116.5 116.9 117.2 117.6 117.9 112.6 113.1 113.5 113.9 114.6 115.5 115.6 116.0 115.8 116.3 116.6 117.1 117.5 117.7 118.1 118.2 0.5 1.6 .6 1.4 3.2 1.8 4.2 1.7 ¥2.5 ¥1.2 16.7 ¥6.0 9.2 ¥1.3 5.7 ¥.6 1.3 ¥2.8 ¥7.8 1.6 ¥3.1 ¥.2 .5 ¥1.3 ¥5.6 ¥1.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 .6 .9 1.8 1.9 .8 1.3 3.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.1 .8 1.1 ¥.7 1.6 .5 1.9 1.6 .9 1.3 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 .7 1.1 1.9 1.9 .9 1.2 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 2.5 2.9 .6 1.3 ¥.7 1.9 1.0 1.7 1.5 .7 1.1 .3 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1994r ....................... 1995r ....................... 1996r ....................... 1997r ....................... 1998 r ....................... 1999 r ....................... 2000 r ....................... 2001 r ....................... 2002r ....................... 2003p* ..................... 2000: I r .................. II r ................ III r ............... IV r ............... 2001: I r .................. II r ................ III r ............... IV r ............... 2002: I r .................. II r ................ III r ............... IV r ............... 2003: I r .................. II r ................ III r .............. IV p* ............. 1 Output 1.2 .3 2.8 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.2 4.8 4.3 ¥1.4 8.3 ¥.5 3.7 ¥.3 3.2 1.5 7.3 8.3 1.6 4.9 1.3 3.2 7.1 8.7 1.8 1.2 .6 2.5 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.1 4.9 4.2 ¥1.8 7.6 ¥.3 3.3 ¥.2 3.4 1.6 6.8 9.7 .8 4.5 1.5 3.1 6.1 9.5 2.7 5.0 2.9 4.6 5.3 4.8 5.1 3.9 .1 2.3 3.7 .3 7.5 ¥.8 2.0 ¥.8 ¥1.2 ¥2.6 2.2 5.6 1.4 4.3 1.6 1.9 4.2 10.3 3.7 4.8 3.2 4.5 5.2 5.0 5.2 3.8 .1 2.3 3.7 ¥.1 7.5 ¥.8 2.2 ¥.8 ¥1.0 ¥2.5 1.6 6.7 .8 4.0 1.6 2.4 3.8 10.4 4.2 3.8 2.6 1.8 3.3 2.2 2.1 1.0 ¥2.1 ¥2.4 ¥.6 1.8 ¥.7 ¥.3 ¥1.7 ¥.6 ¥4.3 ¥4.0 ¥4.8 ¥2.5 ¥.2 ¥.6 .3 ¥1.2 ¥2.7 1.4 1.9 3.5 2.6 1.9 3.4 2.3 2.3 1.1 ¥2.0 ¥2.5 ¥.5 1.7 ¥.1 ¥.5 ¥1.0 ¥.6 ¥4.3 ¥4.0 ¥4.9 ¥2.8 .0 ¥.5 .1 ¥.7 ¥2.2 .8 1.5 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI– U) for recent quarters. The trend from 1978–2002 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI–U–RS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 1.6 2.2 3.2 3.2 5.9 4.8 7.0 4.1 2.1 3.0 14.4 1.9 8.6 2.4 5.6 3.0 2.9 3.7 .8 2.5 1.3 1.3 4.4 5.2 2.7 .9 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.1 5.8 4.7 7.0 3.9 2.2 2.9 14.5 1.2 8.9 1.9 5.4 2.7 3.0 3.8 1.1 2.4 1.3 1.4 3.7 4.8 3.4 1.3 ¥0.5 ¥.3 .5 1.1 4.4 2.7 3.5 1.3 .5 .7 10.2 ¥1.5 4.8 ¥.4 1.8 ¥.3 2.0 4.2 ¥.5 ¥1.0 ¥.8 ¥.7 .6 4.6 .4 .1 ¥0.4 ¥.2 .5 1.0 4.3 2.5 3.6 1.1 .6 .6 10.4 ¥2.1 5.1 ¥.9 1.6 ¥.5 2.1 4.4 ¥.2 ¥1.1 ¥.9 ¥.6 ¥.2 4.2 1.0 .5 0.4 1.9 .5 1.3 3.2 1.8 4.0 1.8 ¥2.5 ¥1.2 16.0 ¥5.9 9.2 ¥1.3 5.9 ¥.3 1.5 ¥3.4 ¥7.0 .9 ¥3.4 .0 1.2 ¥1.7 ¥5.5 ¥.8 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data reflect the benchmark revision of the national income and product accounts released on December 10, 2003. * Data based on GDP data released on January 30, 2004. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose in December; capacity utilization was unchanged. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Percent Period Index, 1997=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1997=100 change 2 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing Total 1 Durable Nondurable Other (nonNAICS) 1 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2003 p .................... 85.2 89.3 93.1 100.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 111.5 110.9 111.2 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 5.4 4.8 4.3 7.4 5.9 4.4 4.4 ¥3.4 ¥.6 .3 83.6 88.0 92.1 100.0 106.8 112.1 117.4 112.7 111.8 112.2 75.4 81.9 89.0 100.0 110.7 119.9 129.5 123.5 122.9 125.4 94.6 96.2 96.5 100.0 101.5 102.2 102.8 99.8 99.2 97.0 92.8 92.9 92.1 100.0 106.5 109.9 112.2 105.6 102.0 105.9 2002: Dec ............ 110.6 ¥0.5 1.4 111.3 123.6 97.4 2003: Jan ............ Feb ............ Mar ............ Apr ............ May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug ............ Sept r .......... Oct r ........... Nov r ........... Dec p ........... 111.2 111.6 110.8 110.1 110.0 110.0 110.8 110.9 111.5 111.9 113.1 113.2 .5 .4 ¥.7 ¥.6 ¥.1 .0 .8 .0 .6 .4 1.0 .1 1.3 1.5 .4 ¥.6 ¥.8 ¥1.5 ¥.6 ¥.6 .1 .8 1.7 2.3 112.0 112.1 111.8 111.1 111.0 111.2 111.8 111.8 112.7 113.0 114.2 114.5 124.8 124.5 123.6 122.8 122.8 123.6 124.8 124.9 127.1 127.4 128.9 129.7 97.5 97.5 97.5 97.0 96.8 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.6 96.7 97.5 97.5 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Mining Utilities Total industry Total manufacturing 96.6 96.4 98.1 100.0 98.2 94.0 96.3 96.8 93.0 93.2 93.9 97.2 100.0 100.0 102.5 105.5 108.6 108.1 111.3 110.9 83.4 83.6 82.4 83.6 83.0 82.4 82.6 77.4 75.6 74.9 82.6 82.7 81.1 82.6 82.0 81.4 81.1 75.4 73.9 73.4 100.5 94.2 112.8 74.9 73.1 103.7 106.0 107.0 106.0 106.1 107.0 105.0 105.2 104.7 106.2 107.1 106.7 93.4 93.3 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.2 93.4 93.1 93.5 93.7 94.2 94.2 112.3 116.4 110.8 109.4 110.2 107.9 111.3 111.8 109.9 112.0 113.5 112.0 75.2 75.4 74.8 74.2 74.1 74.0 74.5 74.5 74.9 75.1 75.8 75.8 73.6 73.5 73.3 72.7 72.6 72.7 73.0 73.0 73.6 73.7 74.4 74.5 Note.—Data based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Equipment Durable goods Business equipment Period Total Total Nondurable goods Materials Nonindustrial supplies Total 1 Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total 1 Energy 1994 ............................................................ 1995 ............................................................ 1996 ............................................................ 1997 ............................................................ 1998 ............................................................ 1999 ............................................................ 2000 ............................................................ 2001 ............................................................ 2002 ............................................................ 2003 p .......................................................... 86.8 90.4 93.9 100.0 105.7 108.3 111.6 109.1 107.6 107.5 91.6 94.5 96.5 100.0 103.6 105.3 107.5 105.9 106.8 106.0 85.4 89.7 93.5 100.0 107.0 113.5 117.5 110.4 115.7 118.2 94.2 96.5 97.8 100.0 102.2 102.1 103.7 104.0 103.4 101.6 78.0 82.8 88.9 100.0 110.0 114.2 119.7 115.1 108.1 109.7 73.5 79.4 86.9 100.0 111.2 117.1 125.5 117.6 109.5 110.4 108.9 106.0 102.0 100.0 104.1 101.4 91.0 102.6 105.7 112.0 87.0 90.3 93.8 100.0 105.7 109.9 114.4 109.8 108.6 109.0 89.5 91.4 95.5 100.0 105.2 107.9 110.3 105.2 103.1 102.0 86.2 89.9 93.2 100.0 105.9 110.7 116.0 111.6 110.7 111.7 83.0 87.9 92.2 100.0 106.2 113.1 119.8 114.6 115.1 115.8 97.0 98.5 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 101.6 100.4 100.5 100.5 2002: Dec .................................................. 106.9 105.6 116.8 101.5 108.4 109.2 109.7 108.4 102.1 110.9 115.3 101.0 2003: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June ................................................ July ................................................. Aug .................................................. Sept r ................................................ Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec p ................................................ 107.7 108.2 107.6 106.5 106.7 106.5 107.1 107.2 107.8 107.8 109.0 108.8 106.6 107.0 106.3 105.3 105.5 105.0 105.8 105.7 106.1 106.2 107.1 106.9 119.4 117.2 116.4 115.5 115.3 116.2 118.2 117.4 120.8 119.8 120.6 120.8 101.9 103.2 102.6 101.4 101.8 100.9 101.3 101.4 100.9 101.3 102.2 101.9 108.9 109.7 109.1 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.9 109.6 110.6 110.5 112.3 112.2 109.8 110.6 110.0 108.7 108.6 109.0 109.3 110.0 111.2 111.1 113.2 113.1 110.3 111.0 111.0 110.3 111.8 111.8 112.1 113.0 113.7 113.8 113.8 113.9 109.2 109.5 108.8 108.1 108.1 107.8 108.7 108.6 108.7 109.7 110.8 110.6 102.7 101.9 101.2 100.6 100.8 100.8 101.5 101.9 102.3 103.1 104.2 104.1 111.8 112.6 111.9 111.1 111.0 110.6 111.5 111.2 111.3 112.4 113.5 113.2 115.5 115.8 114.7 114.5 114.1 114.4 115.4 115.5 116.4 117.0 118.2 118.7 100.6 101.7 99.8 100.2 99.6 99.6 100.9 101.0 100.4 101.0 101.6 101.2 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metal Period Total Iron and steel products Nondurable manufactures Computer and electronic products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Selected hightechnology 1 Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Chemical Food 1994 ............................................................ 1995 ............................................................ 1996 ............................................................ 1997 ............................................................ 1998 ............................................................ 1999 ............................................................ 2000 ............................................................ 2001 ............................................................ 2002 ............................................................ 2003 p .......................................................... 92.6 93.7 95.9 100.0 102.3 101.7 98.5 89.0 86.5 84.7 93.3 94.8 97.1 100.0 100.3 99.9 99.0 87.7 89.5 89.9 87.0 92.3 95.8 100.0 103.0 103.8 107.9 100.1 97.4 94.6 85.5 91.5 94.9 100.0 102.6 100.4 105.8 93.8 86.8 86.7 44.2 57.5 73.8 100.0 129.1 169.0 224.0 226.1 234.7 267.6 33.2 47.3 66.7 100.0 140.2 201.3 286.7 291.1 311.4 370.7 89.9 90.1 91.7 100.0 108.8 114.5 109.5 105.9 108.0 108.6 89.4 92.0 92.7 100.0 105.2 116.4 116.2 105.6 114.5 117.4 104.1 104.1 101.3 100.0 94.6 90.7 87.3 77.9 70.8 62.4 95.9 97.3 98.0 100.0 101.0 101.9 102.3 96.9 93.7 89.7 91.3 92.7 94.6 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.5 103.9 105.3 105.6 96.8 99.3 97.4 100.0 104.3 105.2 106.8 106.9 107.1 106.1 2002: Dec .................................................. 84.3 86.4 96.6 85.6 248.9 334.7 107.0 114.6 69.2 93.0 104.0 106.3 2003: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June ................................................ July ................................................. Aug .................................................. Sept r ................................................ Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec p ................................................ 88.3 88.0 83.5 83.8 82.2 82.7 82.9 82.5 83.0 85.2 87.1 88.8 97.2 93.1 84.4 91.2 83.8 87.3 87.2 84.5 88.5 91.9 93.9 97.0 96.2 95.7 95.0 94.0 93.2 93.3 94.2 93.2 94.4 94.9 96.0 96.1 85.2 86.5 86.3 85.4 86.2 86.3 85.9 86.7 87.3 86.4 89.6 90.0 251.1 253.6 254.6 254.6 258.0 260.5 266.7 273.7 277.1 284.2 289.2 290.6 335.7 344.0 345.9 348.3 352.9 359.6 369.1 382.6 388.1 399.6 409.1 416.8 109.6 107.6 106.7 105.6 105.2 106.3 107.9 107.2 112.1 110.2 110.3 111.1 118.7 116.0 114.4 113.0 112.0 113.8 116.6 114.9 122.7 119.8 119.8 120.5 67.6 66.2 65.2 63.4 63.6 61.8 60.9 59.1 59.1 60.7 61.2 60.0 92.7 92.3 90.3 90.3 88.8 88.8 89.0 88.5 88.7 88.7 89.3 88.9 104.5 105.3 105.0 105.6 104.4 103.5 104.5 105.5 106.1 106.5 108.2 108.9 106.5 106.2 106.5 106.1 106.1 106.4 106.5 105.4 105.9 105.4 106.0 106.1 1 Computers and office equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Total 1 Federal and State and local Nonresidential New housing Total Lodging Commercial (including farm) Office Manufacturing Other 2 1994 .................................... 1995 .................................... 1996 .................................... 1997 .................................... 1998 .................................... 1999 .................................... 2000 .................................... 2001 .................................... 2002 .................................... 2003 p .................................. 2002: Dec .......................... 539.2 557.8 615.9 653.4 705.7 766.1 828.8 852.6 860.9 898.2 872.1 419.0 427.9 476.6 502.7 551.4 596.3 642.6 652.5 650.5 681.9 658.2 258.6 247.4 281.1 289.0 314.6 350.6 374.5 388.3 421.5 465.8 441.5 176.4 171.4 191.1 198.1 224.0 251.3 265.0 279.4 298.5 340.5 315.6 160.4 180.5 195.5 213.7 236.8 245.8 268.2 264.2 229.0 216.2 216.8 4.7 7.1 10.9 12.9 14.8 16.0 16.3 14.5 10.3 9.7 8.9 20.4 23.0 26.5 32.8 40.4 45.1 52.4 49.7 35.1 29.9 32.1 39.6 44.1 49.4 53.1 55.7 59.4 64.1 63.6 58.2 56.1 52.3 28.8 35.4 38.1 37.6 40.5 32.6 31.8 29.5 16.6 13.9 13.9 66.9 70.9 70.6 77.3 85.4 92.8 103.6 106.8 108.7 106.6 109.6 120.2 129.9 139.3 150.7 154.3 169.7 186.1 200.1 210.4 216.3 213.8 2003: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May ......................... June ......................... July ......................... Aug .......................... Sept r ........................ Oct r ......................... Nov .......................... Dec p ......................... 883.2 876.5 875.2 871.9 871.9 878.8 892.6 901.4 913.8 925.5 929.8 933.2 667.6 665.1 668.8 662.8 660.9 661.5 674.3 681.2 692.5 705.2 710.3 712.4 450.0 448.5 447.1 443.9 444.9 444.4 457.1 466.8 475.7 487.5 497.6 502.2 323.6 322.8 321.7 320.3 324.2 326.3 333.4 342.1 350.5 359.1 368.4 373.2 217.6 216.5 221.6 218.9 216.1 217.1 217.2 214.4 216.7 217.7 212.6 210.2 9.2 9.3 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.3 9.2 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3 9.0 30.8 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.6 29.3 28.5 29.1 29.8 31.6 31.2 30.3 56.8 54.8 55.6 54.7 55.3 56.9 58.2 58.4 57.0 56.3 54.7 54.4 14.0 13.6 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.5 13.6 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.5 12.9 106.7 109.2 112.2 110.6 107.2 106.0 107.6 103.4 106.5 106.0 103.9 103.6 215.6 211.4 206.5 209.1 210.9 217.2 218.3 220.2 221.4 220.3 219.5 220.8 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 ...................................... 2003 p .................................... New private houses 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1,616.9 1,640.9 1,568.7 1,602.7 1,704.9 1,848.4 1 unit 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 1,271.4 1,302.4 1,230.9 1,273.3 1,358.6 1,498.5 2–4 units 1 5 units or more 35.2 33.8 45.3 44.5 42.6 31.9 38.7 36.6 38.5 33.3 223.5 244.1 270.8 295.8 302.9 306.6 299.1 292.8 307.9 316.6 Units authorized 1,371.6 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 1,612.3 1,663.5 1,592.3 1,636.7 1,747.7 1,862.4 Units completed Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period 2 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 1,474.2 1,604.9 1,573.7 1,570.8 1,648.4 1,677.7 670 667 757 804 886 880 877 908 973 1,085 336 370 322 281 294 308 298 308 339 374 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.0 9.8 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2002: Dec ............................ 1,815 1,462 35 318 1,907 1,674 1,052 339 9.3 2003: Jan ............................ Feb ............................ Mar ............................ Apr ............................ May ........................... June ........................... July ........................... Aug ............................ Sept ............................ Octr ............................ Nov r ........................... Dec p ........................... 1,828 1,640 1,742 1,627 1,745 1,844 1,890 1,831 1,931 1,977 2,054 2,088 1,509 1,312 1,393 1,357 1,389 1,499 1,533 1,490 1,547 1,640 1,674 1,664 41 30 36 31 27 28 36 32 45 29 37 27 278 298 313 239 329 317 321 309 339 308 343 397 1,777 1,786 1,688 1,724 1,803 1,823 1,800 1,901 1,875 1,981 1,863 1,953 1,647 1,672 1,621 1,680 1,742 1,663 1,678 1,573 1,709 1,717 1,707 1,710 1,009 935 1,008 1,004 1,081 1,200 1,145 1,190 r1,129 1,149 1,117 1,060 343 343 341 341 344 343 341 345 r350 362 366 374 ...................... ...................... 9.4 ...................... ...................... 9.6 ...................... ...................... 9.9 ...................... ...................... 10.2 1 Derived; seasonally adjusted monthly data for 2–4 housing units started are no longer published. 2 Seasonally adjusted. 3 Revised series. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. NOTE.—Units authorized are for 19,000 places. Beginning 1999, housing starts, completions, and sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In December, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.0 percent. In November, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.8 percent and inventories rose $4.3 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in December. Retail and food services sales also rose 0.5 percent. [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventorysales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio 4 Retail and food services sales 2 1994 ........................................................... 1995 ........................................................... 1996 ........................................................... 1997 ........................................................... 1998 ........................................................... 1999 ........................................................... 2000 ........................................................... 2001 ........................................................... 2002 ........................................................... 2003p ......................................................... 2002: Novr ................................................ Decr ................................................ 610,669 931,353 1.47 655,227 989,989 1.48 687,472 1,009,196 1.46 724,126 1,050,132 1.42 743,716 1,082,701 1.44 787,656 1,143,124 1.41 835,239 1,201,677 1.41 819,373 1,145,363 1.44 824,013 r 1,169,213 1.40 859,482 .................. ................ 834,536 1,163,281 1.39 831,652 1,169,213 1.41 161,133 176,227 186,649 194,541 198,319 211,797 228,549 225,722 229,250 241,127 234,619 232,347 218,856 235,128 237,828 255,427 268,385 285,167 302,495 287,556 r 288,708 294,457 286,317 288,708 1.30 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.32 1.25 1.21 1.22 1.24 179,693 312,162 1.66 189,028 329,644 1.72 201,058 340,552 1.67 210,027 350,901 1.64 220,413 365,085 1.62 239,869 394,311 1.59 255,974 417,786 1.59 262,776 405,571 1.58 270,451 436,317 1.56 285,256 ................ ...................... 273,390 434,465 1.59 275,943 436,317 1.58 198,496 208,496 221,299 231,530 243,133 263,696 281,497 289,300 298,334 315,156 301,469 304,659 2003: Jan ................................................ Feb ................................................ Mar ................................................ Apr ................................................ May ................................................ June ............................................... July ............................................... Aug ................................................ Sept ............................................... Oct r ................................................ Novp ............................................... Dec p ............................................... 844,999 1,172,045 1.39 837,850 1,179,647 1.41 851,680 1,183,281 1.39 836,843 1,183,557 1.41 838,547 1,179,925 1.41 849,696 1,180,343 1.39 863,732 1,178,142 1.36 861,312 1,173,573 1.36 869,199 1,178,322 1.36 875,497 1,183,298 1.35 882,135 1,187,621 1.35 891,175 .................. ................ 236,978 238,193 240,547 234,634 234,049 237,735 238,919 239,515 242,007 246,732 248,260 250,864 288,705 289,680 290,938 290,092 288,962 288,919 289,061 288,717 289,691 291,224 292,716 294,457 1.22 1.22 1.21 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.18 1.18 1.17 278,356 439,120 1.58 274,066 443,879 1.62 280,369 447,163 1.59 279,601 448,258 1.60 280,578 446,914 1.59 283,318 448,758 1.58 287,565 448,314 1.56 290,121 445,224 1.53 289,594 450,337 1.56 288,940 453,394 1.57 r292,421 456,779 1.56 293,778 ................ ...................... 307,045 302,741 309,567 308,675 310,214 313,142 317,512 320,703 319,621 319,705 r323,541 325,036 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 2 Annual 20 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December, manufacturers’ shipments and new and unfilled orders rose; inventories fell. Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1994 .................................................... 1995 .................................................... 1996 .................................................... 1997 .................................................... 1998 .................................................... 1999 .................................................... 2000 .................................................... 2001 .................................................... 2002 .................................................... 2003 p ................................................... 2002: Dec ........................................... 2003: Jan ........................................... Feb ........................................... Mar .......................................... Apr ........................................... May .......................................... June ......................................... July .......................................... Aug .......................................... Sept .......................................... Oct r .......................................... Nov .......................................... Dec p ......................................... 269,843 289,973 299,766 319,558 324,984 335,991 350,715 330,875 324,313 333,099 323,362 329,665 325,591 330,764 322,608 323,920 328,643 337,248 331,676 337,598 339,825 341,454 346,533 147,005 158,568 164,883 178,949 185,966 193,895 197,807 181,201 177,617 179,040 172,894 177,331 173,992 175,475 173,512 173,783 176,782 181,761 177,187 182,379 183,740 r 184,074 186,015 122,838 131,405 134,883 140,610 139,019 142,096 152,908 149,674 146,696 154,060 150,468 152,334 151,599 155,289 149,096 150,137 151,861 155,487 154,489 155,219 156,085 157,380 160,518 400,335 425,217 430,816 443,804 449,231 463,646 481,396 452,236 444,188 438,106 444,188 444,220 446,088 445,180 445,207 444,049 442,666 440,767 439,632 438,294 438,680 438,126 438,106 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. NOTE.—Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. 253,444 267,696 272,787 281,249 290,874 296,645 306,682 283,722 271,789 262,284 271,789 270,964 270,765 269,454 269,285 268,449 266,154 264,638 262,949 261,678 262,351 r 261,414 262,284 146,891 157,521 158,029 162,555 158,357 167,001 174,714 168,514 172,399 175,822 172,399 173,256 175,323 175,726 175,922 175,600 176,512 176,129 176,683 176,616 176,329 176,712 175,822 266,641 285,542 297,282 314,986 317,345 329,770 346,789 322,944 316,744 328,967 316,944 322,157 320,664 325,614 317,095 318,144 324,098 330,551 329,401 333,957 341,856 338,726 342,383 143,803 154,137 162,399 174,377 178,327 187,674 193,881 173,270 170,048 174,907 166,476 169,823 169,065 170,325 167,999 168,007 172,237 175,064 174,912 178,738 185,771 r 181,346 181,865 45,175 51,011 54,066 60,697 62,133 64,392 69,278 58,336 53,991 57,313 53,807 55,261 53,417 54,838 55,845 55,367 57,351 58,188 57,229 60,225 61,672 r 57,862 58,726 434,594 447,338 488,815 513,166 496,471 505,941 550,005 517,590 485,816 505,768 485,816 483,871 484,649 485,178 485,534 485,829 487,360 485,959 490,036 492,006 500,307 r 503,869 505,768 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.37 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.31 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.26 Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent in December. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.2 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.5 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.1 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Period Total finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1994 ........................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1999 .......................... 2000 ........................... 2001 ........................... 2002 .......................... 2003 p ........................ 2002: Dec ................ 2003: Jan ................. Feb ................. Mar ................ Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug r ............... Sept ................ Oct ................. Nov ................ Dec ................ 1 Intermediate 22 125.5 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 138.0 140.7 138.9 143.3 139.3 141.2 142.8 144.8 142.4 141.8 142.5 142.7 143.5 143.8 144.9 144.5 144.9 126.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 134.3 135.1 137.2 141.3 140.1 146.0 139.8 142.4 142.9 143.2 144.4 144.5 145.0 144.6 145.9 147.4 150.7 150.2 150.5 125.1 127.5 130.5 130.9 129.5 132.3 138.1 140.4 138.3 142.4 139.0 140.6 142.6 144.9 141.6 140.9 141.7 142.0 142.7 142.6 143.2 142.8 143.2 materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 121.6 124.0 127.6 128.2 126.4 130.5 138.4 141.4 138.8 144.6 139.9 142.2 145.3 148.4 143.8 142.7 143.8 144.3 145.1 144.9 145.4 144.9 145.6 Durable 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.7 132.9 133.0 133.9 134.0 133.0 133.1 132.1 132.8 132.6 134.3 132.3 132.6 132.2 132.6 132.8 132.6 134.1 134.1 133.7 Nondurable 116.2 118.8 123.3 124.3 122.2 127.9 138.7 142.8 139.8 148.3 141.9 144.9 149.4 153.2 147.4 145.6 147.5 148.0 149.0 148.8 149.0 148.1 149.3 Capital equipment 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.2 137.6 137.6 138.8 139.7 139.1 139.6 138.8 139.2 139.0 139.8 139.0 139.1 139.1 139.3 139.7 139.7 140.5 140.3 140.1 Total finished consumer goods 123.3 125.6 129.5 130.2 128.9 132.0 138.2 141.5 139.4 145.2 140.1 142.5 144.8 147.2 144.2 143.4 144.4 144.6 145.5 145.8 147.2 146.6 147.2 Intermediate materials Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 118.5 124.9 125.7 125.6 123.0 123.2 129.2 129.7 127.8 133.7 129.6 131.2 133.8 136.6 133.4 132.5 133.2 133.3 134.1 133.8 134.3 134.0 134.7 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.4 116.2 111.1 111.7 115.9 115.5 125.8 119.0 120.8 121.7 121.3 121.4 122.7 124.9 124.0 124.5 127.5 131.5 135.1 134.1 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 123.4 123.9 130.1 130.5 128.5 134.2 130.2 131.8 134.4 137.4 134.1 133.0 133.7 133.9 134.6 134.2 134.6 134.1 134.8 101.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 96.8 98.2 120.6 121.0 108.1 135.3 119.1 128.2 134.9 152.4 128.3 130.1 135.8 131.7 130.2 134.7 138.2 138.5 141.3 106.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 103.9 98.7 100.2 106.1 99.5 113.5 102.0 107.4 108.2 106.3 107.6 109.7 109.3 105.9 109.5 117.2 127.6 127.5 126.6 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 88.4 94.3 130.4 126.8 111.4 148.2 128.7 140.6 151.8 184.4 140.5 142.0 152.5 147.9 142.4 144.2 142.0 142.5 148.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted; it fell 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted. The index was 1.9 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Rel. imp.3 ......................... 1994 ................................. 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1998 ................................. 1999 ................................. 2000 ................................. 2001 ................................. 2002 ................................. 2003 ................................. Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) Food Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82= 100) Total 1 Rent of primary residence 31.7 160.5 165.7 171.0 176.3 182.1 187.3 193.4 200.6 208.1 213.1 6.5 154.0 157.8 162.0 166.7 172.1 177.5 183.9 192.1 199.7 205.5 22.2 165.8 171.3 176.8 181.9 187.8 192.9 198.7 206.3 214.7 219.9 4.5 122.8 123.7 127.5 130.8 128.5 128.8 137.9 150.2 143.6 154.5 Total 1 100.0 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 14.6 144.3 148.4 153.3 157.3 160.7 164.1 167.8 173.1 176.2 180.0 40.9 144.8 148.5 152.8 156.8 160.4 163.9 169.6 176.4 180.3 184.8 2002: Dec ...................... 180.9 181.6 177.3 182.2 210.8 202.3 217.7 2003: Jan ...................... Feb ....................... Mar ...................... Apr ....................... May ..................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ....................... Sept ...................... Oct ....................... Nov ....................... Dec ....................... 181.7 183.1 184.2 183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6 185.2 185.0 184.5 184.3 182.2 183.3 183.9 183.3 183.3 183.6 183.9 184.5 185.0 185.0 184.6 185.0 177.0 178.2 178.5 178.3 178.9 179.7 179.8 180.4 180.8 181.8 182.6 183.7 182.9 183.4 184.1 184.0 184.7 184.8 185.1 185.3 185.4 185.9 185.7 186.2 211.4 211.5 211.4 211.6 212.8 212.7 213.3 213.7 214.0 214.9 214.9 215.5 203.1 203.5 203.9 204.5 205.1 205.4 205.8 206.3 206.8 206.9 207.3 207.7 218.3 218.7 218.9 218.9 219.3 219.3 219.9 220.4 220.7 221.4 221.7 222.0 1 Includes items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel 4.2 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.9 133.0 131.3 129.6 127.3 124.0 120.9 17.3 ............ 134.3 136.0 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 141.6 140.7 144.4 139.6 153.3 139.6 154.3 138.9 152.9 137.3 157.6 134.7 3.1 98.5 100.0 106.3 106.2 92.2 100.7 129.3 124.7 116.6 135.8 145.3 122.9 154.5 136.8 147.4 150.3 156.9 155.4 155.7 156.4 156.1 156.2 156.5 155.2 153.8 154.6 121.8 121.6 121.1 120.4 120.0 120.5 120.5 120.6 121.2 121.5 120.9 120.4 156.2 159.3 160.9 158.2 156.2 156.6 156.9 158.6 160.0 157.5 155.4 155.1 135.7 135.4 135.6 135.0 134.8 134.5 134.2 134.8 134.3 134.2 134.0 133.9 Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy 6.0 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 250.6 260.8 272.8 285.6 297.1 6.7 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.5 102.9 106.6 124.6 129.3 121.7 136.5 78.7 156.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 173.4 177.0 181.3 186.1 190.5 193.2 122.1 292.3 125.1 192.1 130.2 143.0 148.7 136.5 127.3 128.9 130.8 138.6 147.2 137.2 130.5 130.3 292.6 293.0 293.5 294.1 295.2 296.1 297.5 298.1 299.5 300.5 301.4 303.1 130.1 137.8 144.2 137.5 133.3 134.4 135.0 138.7 142.9 137.3 133.2 133.5 192.3 192.5 192.5 192.5 193.0 193.0 193.4 193.6 193.7 194.1 194.0 194.2 3 Relative importance, December 2002. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 2.0 2.2 .4 ¥.6 0 .3 1.2 0 ¥.6 .9 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. ¥0.2 .3 ¥.1 .6 ¥.6 .1 0 .1 .3 r0 .6 ¥.1 ¥.1 0.9 3.2 9.2 16.8 3.4 ¥2.8 ¥6.2 .8 4.9 3.7 6.3 r 2.8 3.1 4.7 10.8 10.7 10.1 5.7 4.6 5.1 .6 3.9 6.8 18.0 r 12.3 8.7 0.3 2.0 13.7 26.6 4.6 ¥7.0 ¥11.8 1.4 6.9 3.1 3.1 r ¥.6 1.9 ¥0.6 ¥.3 ¥.3 2.9 ¥.6 .3 ¥2.0 .9 1.7 1.7 3.5 r 1.7 1.2 1.0 3.8 6.2 8.5 3.3 3.0 4.6 2.1 1.0 ¥1.4 3.5 3.8 3.4 0.4 4.4 6.0 7.4 8.2 7.6 7.6 3.1 4.2 6.0 8.9 8.0 7.7 2.0 5.3 9.3 12.7 3.3 2.9 5.7 3.0 ¥.3 ¥4.7 2.2 3.1 2.5 Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1994 ..................... 1995 ..................... 1996 ..................... 1997 ..................... 1998 ..................... 1999 ..................... 2000 ..................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ..................... 2003 p ................... 1.7 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 0 2.9 3.6 ¥1.6 1.2 4.0 1.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 .1 .8 1.7 1.8 ¥.6 7.7 2.0 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 ¥.1 5.1 5.5 ¥3.9 2.9 3.9 0.6 1.9 2.7 .4 ¥.8 1.8 3.8 2.0 ¥1.3 3.2 Change, month to month ¥0.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 ¥1.7 ¥.4 .5 .1 .6 r .2 .8 ¥.3 .3 2002: Dec ........... 2003: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ............ May .......... June ......... July .......... Aug r .......... Sept ........... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ............ ¥0.6 1.6 2.2 2.1 ¥3.1 ¥.8 .8 .3 .6 r ¥.1 .3 ¥.3 .5 0.4 1.9 .4 .2 .8 .1 .3 ¥.3 .9 r 1.0 2.2 ¥.3 .2 ¥0.6 .6 .6 1.2 ¥.4 0 .4 .1 1.0 ¥.1 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 2.5 3.3 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of Ownpriers’ mary equivaresilent dence rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 3.6 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 3.1 2.7 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.4 4.5 3.3 2.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 .5 ¥2.6 2.4 12.1 ¥2.1 1.4 6.5 ¥1.6 .1 ¥.2 1.0 ¥.7 ¥.5 ¥1.8 ¥3.2 ¥1.8 ¥2.1 3.8 1.5 4.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 5.4 4.1 ¥3.8 3.8 .3 3.2 1.6 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥.1 ¥.8 .3 0 ¥2.0 ¥2.1 5.9 ¥4.0 12.7 ¥6.2 ¥15.4 30.2 13.9 ¥24.8 24.6 6.8 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.0 3.7 2.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 ¥8.8 13.4 14.2 ¥13.0 10.7 6.9 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.1 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 ¥0.4 ¥.8 ¥.2 .1 ¥.4 ¥.1 ¥.2 ¥.2 .4 ¥.4 ¥.1 ¥.1 ¥.1 ¥1.4 6.6 9.8 4.0 ¥8.2 ¥6.7 1.3 1.5 6.0 6.2 ¥6.8 ¥4.9 ¥.2 0.4 .1 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .5 .2 .5 .3 .3 .6 ¥0.4 4.0 5.9 4.6 ¥4.6 ¥3.1 .8 .4 2.7 3.0 ¥3.9 ¥3.0 .2 0.2 .1 .1 0 0 .3 0 .2 .1 .1 .2 ¥.1 .1 2.0 .......... .......... 3.8 .......... .......... .7 .......... .......... 2.4 .......... .......... .9 1.6 2.2 4.3 5.2 2.4 0 ¥.7 1.3 2.6 3.1 2.4 .2 0 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.5 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 Change, month to month 2002: Dec ............... 2003: Jan ............... Feb ................ Mar ............... Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July .............. Aug ............... Sept ............... Oct ................ Nov ................ Dec ................ 1 Includes 0.1 .3 .6 .3 ¥.3 0 .2 .2 .3 .3 0 ¥.2 .2 0.2 ¥.2 .7 .2 ¥.1 .3 .4 .1 .3 .2 .6 .4 .6 0.2 .4 .3 .4 ¥.1 .4 .1 .2 .1 .1 .3 ¥.1 .3 0.2 .3 0 0 .1 .6 0 .3 .2 .1 .4 0 .3 0.2 .4 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .2 .2 .2 0 .2 .2 0.3 .3 .2 .1 0 .2 0 .3 .2 .1 .3 .1 .1 0.4 1.4 2.0 4.4 ¥1.0 .2 .4 ¥.2 .1 .2 ¥.8 ¥.9 .5 ¥0.2 ¥.9 ¥.2 ¥.4 ¥.6 ¥.3 .4 0 .1 .5 .2 ¥.5 ¥.4 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 24 ¥0.3 1.1 2.0 1.0 ¥1.7 ¥1.3 .3 .2 1.1 .9 ¥1.6 ¥1.3 ¥.2 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In January, prices received by farmers fell 1.8 percent while prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 All farm products 100 102 112 107 101 96 96 102 98 107 2003: Jan .................... Feb ..................... Mar ..................... Apr ..................... May .................... June ................... July .................... Aug ..................... Sept ................... Oct ...................... Nov ..................... Dec r ................... 2004: Jan .................... 100 99 99 101 106 107 105 109 r111 113 117 113 111 1 Includes Livestock and products Crops ............................... ............................... ............................... .............................. .............................. ............................... .............................. .............................. .............................. .............................. Prices paid by farmers 105 112 127 115 107 97 96 99 r106 111 95 92 99 98 97 95 97 106 90 103 103 96 95 93 r 93 97 99 101 106 110 116 117 112 107 r 104 106 111 r 117 117 109 113 111 111 117 115 115 items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items 106 109 115 118 115 115 120 123 124 128 106 108 115 118 114 113 118 122 121 126 106 108 115 119 113 111 116 120 119 124 126 125 126 126 126 r126 126 125 125 127 128 128 128 128 122 123 124 124 123 r124 r124 123 125 126 127 127 127 r128 128 128 127 128 127 127 129 130 130 130 130 Ratio 2 94 93 98 90 89 83 80 83 79 83 79 r 77 77 79 83 84 83 86 85 87 90 87 85 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910–14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990–92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In December, M2 and M3 fell. (Series reflects annual revision.) [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 M2 M3 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutional MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors1 ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... ...................................................... 1,150.5 1,127.0 1,079.3 1,072.5 1,096.1 1,124.0 1,087.9 1,177.2 1,215.0 3,496.3 3,640.0 3,815.3 4,030.8 4,383.5 4,649.2 4,933.1 5,450.1 5,803.8 2003: Dec ........................................................ 1,292.6 2003: Jan r ...................................................... Feb r ...................................................... Mar r ...................................................... Apr r ...................................................... May r ...................................................... June r ..................................................... July r ...................................................... Aug r ...................................................... Sept r ..................................................... Oct r ....................................................... Nov r ...................................................... Dec ........................................................ 1,218.3 1,232.7 1,238.2 1,243.3 1,255.2 1,268.5 1,273.4 1,282.1 1,282.9 1,284.3 1,283.6 1,292.6 Period 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r Dec r 1 Quarterly data; shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 Percent change From year or 6 months earlier2 M1 M2 M3 From previous period3 Debt 4,360.1 4,625.3 4,972.0 5,445.8 6,036.0 6,534.9 7,102.1 8,011.7 8,539.5 12,993.3 13,682.8 14,412.5 15,199.1 16,241.1 17,302.3 18,165.7 19,302.2 20,677.1 1.8 ¥2.0 ¥4.2 ¥.6 2.2 2.5 ¥3.2 8.2 3.2 0.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 8.8 6.1 6.1 10.5 6.5 1.9 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.8 8.3 8.7 12.8 6.6 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.9 6.3 4.9 6.3 7.1 6,062.3 8,838.6 ...................... 6.4 4.5 3.5 ............ 5,836.2 5,879.0 5,904.5 5,947.7 5,996.1 6,033.1 6,078.2 6,117.7 6,097.5 6,079.1 6,071.3 6,062.3 8,552.2 8,589.9 8,621.1 8,657.6 8,712.1 8,758.9 8,887.3 8,923.4 8,912.0 8,876.6 8,855.6 8,838.6 ...................... ...................... 21,011.9 ...................... ...................... 21,595.3 ...................... ...................... 21,997.0 ...................... ...................... ...................... 4.3 8.7 8.3 7.2 8.7 8.8 9.0 8.0 7.2 6.6 4.5 3.8 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.1 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.0 8.4 7.7 7.6 7.7 5.8 5.1 7.8 7.8 6.7 5.1 3.3 1.8 ............ ............ 6.5 ............ ............ 11.1 ............ ............ 7.4 ............ ............ ............ 3 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Data for money stock and components reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions released January 29, 2004. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Currency Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Small denomination time deposits 1 Money market mutual fund balances Large denomination time deposits 1 Institutional Retail Overnight and term Overnight repurand term chase Euroagreedollars ments (net) (RPs) (net) Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec ........................................... 354.0 372.1 394.1 424.6 459.9 517.7 531.6 582.0 627.4 664.2 8.6 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7 383.9 389.3 401.0 394.2 378.4 354.9 310.2 330.3 301.2 311.3 403.9 356.6 275.5 245.3 249.3 242.8 237.8 256.9 278.6 309.5 1,149.4 1,133.9 1,273.1 1,399.1 1,603.6 1,738.2 1,876.2 2,308.9 2,769.5 3,156.8 816.3 931.3 946.8 967.9 951.5 954.0 1,044.3 973.4 893.6 806.3 380.1 447.7 516.0 591.2 732.2 832.9 924.7 990.6 925.7 806.6 211.3 264.6 322.9 395.8 539.3 634.6 788.2 1,189.0 1,233.4 1,100.2 369.8 428.1 508.7 617.6 669.3 743.7 820.4 784.8 793.1 892.8 196.4 198.6 210.6 254.2 294.0 337.0 366.0 378.9 480.9 501.6 86.3 94.0 114.6 147.4 150.0 170.4 194.5 208.9 228.3 281.6 2003: Jan r .......................................... Feb r .......................................... Mar r .......................................... Apr r .......................................... May r .......................................... June r ......................................... July r ......................................... Aug r .......................................... Sept r ......................................... Oct r ........................................... Nov r .......................................... Dec ........................................... 630.9 635.4 639.1 642.0 644.6 646.4 648.0 650.8 654.2 658.4 661.5 664.2 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 299.8 306.0 305.4 307.4 311.9 319.2 318.8 321.2 314.5 311.9 308.0 311.3 279.9 283.6 286.0 286.3 291.1 295.2 299.1 302.5 306.6 306.4 306.4 309.5 2,814.3 2,854.3 2,886.0 2,934.9 2,983.6 3,021.3 3,082.1 3,128.6 3,125.5 3,140.5 3,155.0 3,156.8 888.1 881.9 876.6 870.6 862.7 854.1 843.0 832.7 824.9 818.2 811.2 806.3 915.5 910.1 903.8 898.8 894.6 889.2 879.7 874.2 864.2 836.1 821.5 806.6 1,206.8 1,191.0 1,177.0 1,158.8 1,139.3 1,143.1 1,179.9 1,163.3 1,163.4 1,141.6 1,118.6 1,100.2 802.5 798.8 802.2 802.6 807.2 805.8 864.6 871.0 877.0 870.3 875.3 892.8 472.6 485.4 497.4 501.6 511.3 517.2 497.0 494.4 496.8 503.7 509.3 501.6 234.0 235.7 239.9 246.8 258.2 259.7 267.6 277.0 277.4 281.9 281.0 281.6 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Note.—See Note, p. 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1;millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 2 Nonborrowed 3 Required Monetary base Excess (NSA) Primary Secondary 209 257 155 324 117 320 210 67 80 46 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 17 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 0 100 40 68 79 15 67 111 33 45 29 109 217 87 245 101 179 99 34 35 ................ 12 21 14 8 3 87 21 168 23 13 25 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 13 5 8 21 53 74 110 146 158 94 43 29 2 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 93 0 13 ................ Total .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. 59,369 56,430 50,149 46,848 45,141 41,809 38,537 41,243 40,217 43,019 59,160 56,173 49,994 46,523 45,024 41,488 38,327 41,177 40,138 42,974 58,209 55,140 48,733 45,163 43,627 40,512 37,110 39,595 38,208 41,356 1,159 1,290 1,416 1,685 1,514 1,297 1,427 1,649 2,009 1,663 r 418,196 2003: Jan .................................. Feb .................................. Mar ................................. Apr .................................. May ................................. June ................................ July ................................. Aug ................................. Sept ................................. Oct .................................. Nov r ................................ Dec .................................. 40,731 40,820 40,973 40,806 40,986 42,795 43,927 46,282 44,963 43,992 43,430 43,019 40,704 40,795 40,951 40,777 40,931 42,634 43,796 45,954 44,783 43,884 43,362 42,974 39,024 38,855 39,337 39,274 39,367 40,942 42,003 42,519 43,458 42,525 41,882 41,356 1,707 1,965 1,636 1,532 1,619 1,854 1,924 3,763 1,505 1,467 1,548 1,663 r 685,657 719,209 721,145 27 25 22 29 55 161 130 329 181 107 68 46 2004: Jan .................................. 43,091 42,985 41,575 1,516 721,313 106 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Reserves and monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or ‘‘breaks,’’ associated with changes in reserve requirements. 2 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. r 434,388 r 451,904 r 479,826 r 513,695 r 593,168 r 584,782 r 635,668 r 681,970 721,145 r690,549 r 693,909 r 696,984 r 699,960 r 702,908 r 705,318 r 710,812 r 712,490 r 716,014 Seasonal Adjustment 3 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.4 percent in December; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.5 percent. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2003: Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec r .......... Dec ........... Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r ......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r ......... Sept r ......... Oct r .......... Nov r ......... Dec ........... Total bank credit 3,322.4 3,605.1 3,757.2 4,101.3 4,537.4 4,769.2 r 5,223.8 5,434.1 5,889.5 6,249.0 5,881.5 5,957.5 5,989.1 6,028.5 6,141.1 6,197.0 6,201.6 6,191.2 6,198.7 6,178.3 6,218.3 6,249.0 Total securities U.S. Treasury and agency securities 942.6 986.7 981.9 1,096.6 1,236.1 1,281.4 1,346.8 1,491.8 1,718.5 1,852.1 1,713.9 1,756.5 1,769.3 1,783.2 1,841.8 1,868.7 1,829.1 1,786.2 1,790.3 1,810.1 1,839.8 1,852.1 724.2 703.7 701.8 755.2 797.6 814.6 791.8 852.4 1,028.3 1,102.0 1,031.1 1,059.8 1,072.5 1,104.9 1,135.9 1,153.5 1,118.2 1,081.2 1,066.0 1,082.3 1,102.8 1,102.0 Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate Other Total loans Commersecurities and leases 2 cial and industrial 218.4 283.0 280.1 341.4 438.5 466.8 555.0 639.4 690.1 750.1 682.7 696.7 696.8 678.4 705.9 715.2 710.9 705.0 724.3 727.8 737.0 750.1 2,379.8 2,618.3 2,775.3 3,004.7 3,301.3 3,487.8 3,877.0 3,942.4 4,171.0 4,396.9 4,167.6 4,201.0 4,219.8 4,245.2 4,299.3 4,328.3 4,372.5 4,405.0 4,408.4 4,368.2 4,378.5 4,396.9 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 650.3 723.8 784.9 854.5 948.0 999.8 1,088.4 1,029.0 964.0 897.6 957.4 951.2 945.6 945.4 937.2 924.4 923.7 917.1 907.2 896.8 893.0 897.6 Total 1,012.1 1,091.0 1,142.4 1,245.5 1,336.3 1,475.5 1,656.0 1,784.4 2,028.5 2,217.0 2,046.8 2,080.0 2,095.2 2,111.1 2,134.1 2,156.9 2,195.6 2,242.3 2,259.5 2,238.2 2,222.7 2,217.0 Revolving home equity 80.5 84.4 90.8 104.9 103.8 101.5 130.0 155.5 213.4 280.9 217.6 222.7 230.5 234.8 238.4 244.8 249.0 253.4 258.8 265.6 273.4 280.9 Consumer Security Other Other 931.7 1,006.5 1,051.6 1,140.6 1,232.5 1,374.0 1,526.1 1,628.8 1,815.1 1,936.1 1,829.2 1,857.3 1,864.7 1,876.4 1,895.7 1,912.2 1,946.6 1,988.9 2,000.8 1,972.6 1,949.3 1,936.1 448.3 491.5 513.2 503.0 497.3 491.2 540.1 557.5 588.0 635.1 591.9 591.9 587.0 584.6 594.5 600.5 602.2 603.4 607.9 603.0 631.8 635.1 75.9 83.3 75.4 94.6 145.8 150.4 177.2 145.6 188.8 196.4 171.5 177.9 190.0 187.1 207.8 209.9 211.3 203.7 199.1 206.6 212.3 196.4 193.3 228.7 259.5 307.2 373.9 r 370.8 415.3 426.0 401.7 450.8 399.9 400.0 402.0 416.9 425.9 436.6 439.7 438.4 434.7 423.6 418.7 450.8 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 1993 r 1994 r 1995 r 1996 r 1997 r 1998 r 1999 r 2000 r 2001 r 2002 r 2001: ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. I r ............ II r .......... III r ......... IV r ......... 2002: I r ............ II r .......... III r ......... IV r ......... 2003: I r ............ II r .......... III p ........ 717.3 795.9 996.1 1,065.0 1,002.8 1,305.5 1,729.2 1,971.4 832.7 1,059.5 981.5 942.0 678.6 728.6 976.0 1,047.9 1,061.5 1,152.7 1,430.6 1,419.4 1,448.3 Internal 1 499.4 554.3 605.3 666.5 719.3 689.5 741.6 734.0 770.0 859.5 720.9 732.5 764.8 861.8 841.9 857.7 852.2 886.2 845.6 925.2 987.7 Credit market instruments Total 217.9 241.6 390.8 398.5 283.5 616.0 987.6 1,237.4 62.7 200.0 260.6 209.5 ¥86.2 ¥133.2 134.1 190.2 209.3 266.5 585.0 494.2 460.6 Capital expenditures 3 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues Total 55.7 81.6 168.8 135.4 214.4 192.6 270.6 254.0 186.2 19.2 190.9 251.7 89.6 212.5 40.0 77.7 ¥158.3 117.4 60.7 179.2 17.2 21.3 ¥44.9 ¥58.3 ¥47.3 ¥77.4 ¥215.5 ¥110.4 ¥118.2 ¥47.4 ¥41.8 ¥19.0 ¥57.9 ¥108.6 ¥4.2 ¥11.0 15.9 ¥141.2 ¥30.9 ¥67.4 ¥50.7 ¥41.2 34.4 126.5 227.1 182.8 291.8 408.1 381.0 372.2 233.6 61.0 209.9 309.6 198.3 216.7 51.0 61.8 ¥17.1 148.3 128.1 229.9 58.4 1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Securities and mortgages 56.6 32.2 102.2 129.2 187.2 257.5 259.4 191.0 389.4 180.6 427.6 458.7 301.5 369.6 281.8 232.0 12.0 196.5 225.9 376.3 158.1 Loans and shortterm paper Other 2 ¥22.2 94.3 124.9 53.7 104.6 150.7 121.6 181.2 ¥155.8 ¥119.6 ¥217.7 ¥149.1 ¥103.3 ¥152.8 ¥230.8 ¥170.3 ¥29.1 ¥48.3 ¥97.9 ¥146.3 ¥99.7 162.2 160.0 222.1 263.1 69.0 423.3 717.1 983.5 ¥123.4 180.8 69.6 ¥42.2 ¥175.8 ¥345.7 94.1 112.6 367.7 149.1 524.4 314.9 443.3 830.7 839.0 1,054.6 1,100.2 1,020.2 1,361.1 1,836.6 2,135.9 987.4 1,019.6 1,151.1 1,131.1 869.4 797.9 918.9 1,033.6 1,039.6 1,086.6 1,380.9 1,377.6 1,419.3 498.0 563.9 628.2 646.2 747.8 791.2 866.7 926.7 800.1 782.5 876.2 821.3 779.6 723.2 757.1 772.7 806.0 794.3 768.3 777.8 799.7 Increase in financial assets 332.7 275.1 426.4 454.0 272.4 569.9 969.9 1,209.2 187.3 237.1 274.9 309.8 89.8 74.7 161.8 260.9 233.6 292.3 612.6 599.8 619.6 Discrepancy (sources less uses) ¥113.3 ¥43.1 ¥58.5 ¥35.2 ¥17.4 ¥55.6 ¥107.3 ¥164.6 ¥154.7 39.9 ¥169.6 ¥189.1 ¥190.8 ¥69.2 57.1 14.3 22.0 66.1 49.7 41.7 29.0 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and access rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Revolving Nonrevolving 2 Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Total Revolving Nonrevolving 2 Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec r .............................................................................. Dec r .............................................................................. Dec r .............................................................................. Dec r .............................................................................. Dec r .............................................................................. Dec r .............................................................................. Dec p ............................................................................. 997.1 1,140.6 1,242.2 1,305.0 1,400.3 1,512.8 1,686.2 1,822.2 1,902.7 2,001.7 365.6 443.1 498.9 521.7 562.8 590.5 658.9 703.9 716.7 742.5 631.6 697.5 743.2 783.4 837.5 922.3 1,027.4 1,118.3 1,186.0 1,259.2 131.4 143.5 101.6 62.8 95.3 112.5 173.4 136.0 80.5 99.0 55.7 77.5 55.8 22.8 41.1 27.7 68.4 45.0 12.8 25.8 75.9 65.9 45.7 40.2 54.1 84.8 105.1 90.9 67.7 73.2 2003: Jan r .............................................................................. Feb r .............................................................................. Mar r ............................................................................. Apr r .............................................................................. May r ............................................................................. June r ............................................................................ July r ............................................................................. Aug r ............................................................................. Sept r ............................................................................. Oct r .............................................................................. Nov ............................................................................... Dec p ............................................................................. 1,915.2 1,924.5 1,923.2 1,933.1 1,951.1 1,953.0 1,961.6 1,973.1 1,983.5 1,993.3 1,995.1 2,001.7 719.7 723.2 724.8 726.9 731.0 729.7 731.0 733.2 737.3 740.5 740.9 742.5 1,195.5 1,201.3 1,198.4 1,206.2 1,220.1 1,223.3 1,230.6 1,240.0 1,246.1 1,252.8 1,254.2 1,259.2 12.5 9.3 ¥1.3 9.9 18.0 1.9 8.6 11.5 10.4 9.8 1.8 6.6 3.0 3.5 1.6 2.1 4.1 ¥1.3 1.3 2.2 4.1 3.2 .4 1.6 9.5 5.8 ¥2.9 7.8 13.9 3.2 7.3 9.4 6.1 6.7 1.4 5.0 1 Change based on data in billions of dollar as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Note.—Effective October 7, 2003 data beginning 1977 include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation, the parent company of Sallie Mae. See Federal Reserve release, G. 19 Consumer Credit, for details. Data reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions released in January 2004. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in January. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant Period 1994 ....................... 1995 ....................... 1996 ....................... 1997 ....................... 1998 ....................... 1999 ....................... 2000 ....................... 2001 ....................... 2002 ....................... 2003 ....................... 2003: Jan .............. Feb .............. Mar ............. Apr .............. May ............. June ............ July ............. Aug ............. Sept ............. Oct .............. Nov ............. Dec .............. 2004: Jan .............. Week ended: 2004: Jan 10 ........ 17 ....... 24 ....... 31 ....... Feb 7 ........ 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 3-year maturities 2 Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) 30 Primary credit 4 10-year 30-year 7.37 6.88 6.71 6.61 5.58 5.87 5.94 5.49 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.55 5.12 5.43 5.77 5.19 5.05 4.73 4.88 4.80 4.72 4.71 4.35 4.32 4.71 5.08 4.91 4.84 4.74 4.65 4.53 7.96 7.59 7.37 7.26 6.53 7.04 7.62 7.08 6.49 5.67 6.17 5.95 5.89 5.74 5.22 4.97 5.49 5.88 5.72 5.70 5.65 5.62 5.54 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 2.12 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 * * * * * 4.56 4.43 4.50 4.62 4.56 5.62 5.46 5.46 5.55 5.53 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 4.29 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.81 4.66 5.85 3.45 1.62 1.02 1.17 1.16 1.13 1.14 1.08 0.95 0.90 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.90 0.89 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.14 5.49 6.22 4.09 3.10 r2.10 2.18 2.05 1.98 2.06 1.75 1.51 1.93 2.44 2.23 2.26 2.45 2.44 2.27 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.65 6.03 5.02 4.61 r4.01 4.05 3.90 3.81 3.96 3.57 3.33 3.98 4.45 4.27 4.29 4.30 4.27 4.15 0.92 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.92 2.36 2.16 2.19 2.32 2.33 4.27 4.04 4.05 4.17 4.16 basis. on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 The rate for primary credit replaces the rate for adjustment credit under an amendment to the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation A, effective January 9, 2003. 5 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 2 Yields Discount window (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 6 Daily Discount rate 5 3.60 5.21 5.02 5.00 4.92 4.62 5.73 3.40 1.17 Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 7 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 7.15 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.35 8.00 9.23 6.91 4.67 4.12 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.21 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.88 1.67 1.13 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.22 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.98 1.00 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.07 7.04 7.52 7.00 6.43 5.80 6.12 5.82 5.75 5.92 5.75 5.51 5.53 5.77 5.97 5.92 5.92 5.59 .............. * * * * * 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.01 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published or discontinued. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in January. Common stock prices 1 Period New York Stock Exchange indexes 2 3 (December 31, 2002=5,000) Dow Jones industrial average 4 Common stock yields (percent) 7 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 5 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 6 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio Composite Financial Energy Health Care ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... 2,687.02 3,078.56 3,787.20 4,827.35 5,818.26 6,546.81 6,805.89 6,397.85 5,578.89 5,447.93 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5,583.00 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 5,273.90 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5,288.67 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 8,625.52 10,464.88 10,734.90 10,189.13 9,226.43 8,993.59 460.42 541.72 670.50 873.43 1,085.50 1,327.33 1,427.22 1,194.18 993.94 965.23 751.65 925.19 1,164.96 1,469.49 1,794.91 2,728.15 3,783.67 2,035.00 1,539.73 1,647.17 2.82 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.49 1.25 1.15 1.32 1.61 1.77 5.83 6.09 5.24 4.57 3.46 3.17 3.63 2.95 2.92 .................. 2003: Jan .............................................. Feb .............................................. Mar ............................................. Apr .............................................. May ............................................. June ............................................ July ............................................. Aug ............................................. Sept ............................................. Oct .............................................. Nov ............................................. Dec .............................................. 5,055.78 4,738.56 4,724.22 4,977.45 5,269.96 5,583.42 5,567.94 5,580.87 5,748.42 5,894.39 5,989.42 6,244.98 5,092.08 4,723.86 4,685.40 5,036.82 5,357.20 5,690.39 5,790.61 5,776.36 5,897.76 6,187.33 6,282.53 6,475.68 4,900.65 4,802.42 4,855.44 4,916.44 5,190.65 5,522.45 5,276.08 5,368.25 5,453.23 5,552.99 5,474.84 5,973.31 5,043.19 4,788.19 4,854.73 5,078.71 5,316.27 5,557.87 5,457.98 5,263.19 5,402.56 5,428.31 5,521.85 5,751.14 8,474.59 7,916.18 7,977.73 8,332.09 8,623.41 9,098.07 9,154.39 9,284.78 9,492.54 9,682.46 9,762.20 10,124.66 895.84 837.62 846.62 890.03 935.96 988.00 992.54 989.53 1,019.44 1,038.73 1,049.90 1,080.64 1,389.56 1,313.26 1,348.50 1,409.83 1,524.18 1,631.75 1,716.85 1,724.82 1,856.22 1,907.89 1,939.25 1,956.98 1.80 1.95 1.93 1.83 1.75 1.66 1.71 1.78 1.73 1.71 1.69 1.67 .................. .................. 3.57 .................. .................. 3.55 .................. .................. r3.87 .................. .................. .................. 2004: Jan .............................................. 6,569.76 6,827.35 6,323.29 6,000.57 10,540.05 1,132.52 2,098.00 1.62 .................. Week ended: 2004: Jan 10 ...................................... 17 ..................................... 24 ..................................... 31 ..................................... Feb 7 ...................................... 6,539.30 6,546.13 6,635.43 6,595.03 6,569.31 6,757.02 6,798.31 6,917.13 6,885.67 6,865.21 6,369.61 6,249.85 6,370.70 6,309.38 6,195.57 5,980.71 5,939.81 6,037.48 6,059.83 6,149.16 10,532.62 10,521.02 10,585.94 10,555.83 10,512.74 1,125.20 1,130.17 1,142.97 1,138.63 1,133.83 2,073.92 2,113.78 2,133.33 2,096.32 2,045.41 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.64 1.65 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Average of daily closing prices. all the stocks (nearly 3,000) listed on the NYSE. January 9, 2003, the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in methodology, definitions, and based on Dec. 31, 2002=5,000. Effective January 8, 2004 new indexes for Financial, Energy, and Health Care were introduced by the NYSE. Previous indexes shown for Industrial, Transportation, Utility, and Finance were discontinued. 4 Includes 30 stocks. 2 Includes 3 Effective 5 Includes 500 stocks. over 5,000 stocks. & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 6 Includes 7 Standard Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, and Nasdaq Stock Market. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 3 months of fiscal 2004, there was a deficit of $128.7 billion, compared with a deficit of $108.2 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1987 ...................................... 1988 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1990 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1992 ...................................... 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 ...................................... 2003 r ..................................... 2004 (estimates) .................... Cumulative total, first 3 months: 1 Fiscal year 2003 ................ Fiscal year 2004 ................ Outlays On-budget Surplus or deficit (¥) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Receipts Outlays Federal debt (end of period) Surplus or deficit (¥) Gross Federal Held by the public 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.2 1,853.2 1,782.3 1,798.1 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.6 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 1,788.8 r 1,863.8 2,011.0 2,157.6 2,318.8 ¥149.7 ¥155.2 ¥152.5 ¥221.2 ¥269.3 ¥290.4 ¥255.1 ¥203.3 ¥164.0 ¥107.5 ¥22.0 69.2 125.6 236.4 r 127.4 ¥157.8 ¥375.3 ¥520.7 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.3 1,306.0 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.7 1,337.9 1,258.5 1,264.1 810.2 861.8 932.7 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.9 1,182.5 1,227.1 1,259.6 1,290.6 1,336.0 1,381.1 1,458.0 r 1,516.9 1,655.3 1,794.6 1,938.9 ¥169.3 ¥194.0 ¥205.2 ¥277.8 ¥321.5 ¥340.5 ¥300.4 ¥258.9 ¥226.4 ¥174.1 ¥103.3 ¥30.0 1.9 86.6 ¥33.4 ¥317.5 ¥536.1 ¥674.8 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.0 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 380.0 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 154.0 2,346.0 2,601.1 2,867.8 3,206.3 3,598.2 4,001.8 4,351.0 4,643.3 4,920.6 5,181.5 5,369.2 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,486.4 1,889.8 2,051.6 2,190.7 2,411.6 2,689.0 2,999.7 3,248.4 3,433.1 3,604.4 3,734.1 3,772.3 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.6 4,420.8 427.3 440.8 535.6 569.4 ¥108.2 ¥128.7 309.4 322.8 470.7 501.1 ¥161.4 ¥178.3 118.0 117.9 64.8 68.3 53.2 49.6 6,381.5 6,972.9 3,637.0 4,033.1 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2005, issued February 2, 2004. 32 Off-budget Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 3 months of fiscal 2004, receipts were $13.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $33.8 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total 1987 ............................................... 1988 ............................................... 1989 ............................................... 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... 2000 ............................................... 2001 .............................................. 2002 .............................................. 2003 r ............................................. 2004 (estimates) ............................ Cumulative total, first 3 months: 1 Fiscal year 2003 ........................ Fiscal year 2004 ........................ 1 Data Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total 854.4 909.3 991.2 392.6 401.2 445.7 83.9 94.5 103.3 303.3 334.3 359.4 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 879.5 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 184.7 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 611.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.2 132.7 151.5 2,025.2 1,004.5 1,991.2 994.3 1,853.2 858.3 1,782.3 793.7 1,798.1 765.4 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 168.7 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 732.4 160.6 151.8 146.0 143.9 131.6 33.0 43.2 162.0 161.9 34.7 37.0 427.3 440.8 197.7 198.7 from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Total Department of Defense, military 282.0 290.4 303.6 r 273.9 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.8 270.5 268.5 274.9 r 289.7 1,788.8 74.6 1,004.1 79.3 1,064.5 82.8 1,143.6 International affairs Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other 11.6 10.5 9.6 40.0 44.5 48.4 75.1 78.9 85.0 124.1 130.4 137.4 207.4 219.3 232.5 138.6 151.8 169.0 125.3 138.7 158.2 268.6 259.4 r 253.1 258.3 256.1 r 261.3 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.2 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.8 131.4 141.1 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 190.4 148.7 172.4 199.5 209.9 217.1 223.7 229.7 235.0 237.7 242.4 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 390.0 184.3 194.4 199.3 198.7 202.9 232.1 241.1 244.0 241.1 229.8 202.6 223.7 172.2 158.0 171.7 160.3 167.3 157.5 188.8 218.1 2,011.0 2,157.6 2,318.8 294.5 305.5 348.6 404.9 453.7 281.2 291.0 332.0 387.3 434.8 17.2 16.5 22.4 21.2 34.2 154.5 172.3 196.5 219.6 243.5 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 270.5 253.6 269.6 312.5 334.4 339.5 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 496.2 223.0 206.2 171.0 153.1 156.3 535.6 569.4 98.3 112.3 93.6 107.7 5.5 5.3 53.8 60.0 65.0 67.4 79.2 79.3 115.5 119.9 42.3 41.6 r 1,863.8 281.9 r 294.8 r 262.3 r 286.8 r 278.5 239.5 r 243.4 273.2 300.3 325.0 76.0 83.6 NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2005, issued February 2, 2004. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 2003, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $6.2 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government current receipts Current tax receipts Period Total1 Personal current taxes 781.9 845.1 932.4 1,030.6 1,116.8 1,195.7 1,313.6 1,254.9 1,080.7 .............. 1,301.9 1,309.4 1,322.6 1,320.4 1,324.4 1,319.9 1,138.9 1,236.5 1,085.2 1,088.8 1,076.1 1,072.7 1,060.3 1,057.1 972.1 .............. 542.7 586.0 663.4 744.3 825.8 893.0 999.1 1,000.0 831.1 762.4 975.4 987.4 1,011.7 1,021.7 1,051.2 1,050.2 887.0 1,011.5 849.0 836.6 823.6 815.4 794.3 794.6 696.3 764.3 Total Calendar year: 1994 ................ 1995 ................ 1996 ................ 1997 ................ 1998 ................ 1999 ................ 2000 ................ 2001 ................ 2002 ................ 2003 p ............... 2000: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2001: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2002: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2003: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV p ........... 1 Includes 2 Includes 34 1,320.8 1,406.5 1,524.0 1,653.1 1,773.8 1,891.2 2,053.8 2,017.8 1,860.7 .............. 2,035.7 2,044.9 2,066.8 2,068.0 2,088.5 2,082.9 1,901.8 1,998.2 1,857.7 1,865.4 1,859.9 1,859.7 1,863.5 1,863.9 1,784.3 .............. Taxes on production and imports 79.4 75.9 73.2 78.2 81.1 83.9 87.8 86.0 87.6 88.0 86.7 88.9 88.1 87.5 87.9 86.8 84.4 84.9 85.4 88.1 87.9 89.0 88.3 87.7 86.3 89.8 Taxes on corporate income 156.7 179.3 190.6 203.0 204.2 213.0 219.4 161.8 154.8 .............. 233.0 225.5 215.6 203.7 178.1 176.5 160.2 132.4 143.4 156.4 157.5 161.7 171.0 167.9 182.8 .............. Contributions for government social insurance 493.7 519.2 542.8 576.4 613.8 651.6 691.7 715.4 736.7 760.7 685.3 685.6 696.5 699.4 713.7 714.5 715.7 717.5 730.3 736.1 738.6 741.9 755.1 758.5 763.1 766.2 taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. a subtraction for wage accruals less disbursements, not shown separately. Federal Government current expenditures Income receipts on assets Current transfer receipts Current surplus of government enterprises 23.4 23.7 26.9 25.9 21.5 21.5 25.2 24.4 20.6 23.8 24.5 25.5 25.0 25.9 26.1 25.0 24.0 22.3 20.2 19.7 20.5 22.0 22.5 23.6 24.9 24.3 22.3 19.1 23.1 19.9 21.5 22.7 25.7 27.4 25.8 26.5 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.7 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.4 26.0 26.3 26.9 26.8 ¥0.4 ¥.6 ¥1.2 .3 .1 ¥.3 ¥2.3 ¥4.1 ¥3.1 ¥1.5 ¥.8 ¥.9 ¥3.1 ¥4.5 ¥3.1 ¥4.1 ¥4.3 ¥5.1 ¥4.0 ¥5.2 ¥1.0 ¥2.3 ¥.4 ¥1.6 ¥2.5 ¥1.6 Total 2 1,533.1 1,603.5 1,665.8 1,708.9 1,734.9 1,787.6 1,864.4 1,967.3 2,100.7 2,261.5 1,823.0 1,863.5 1,875.5 1,895.5 1,932.4 1,953.9 1,981.9 2,001.1 2,046.5 2,097.4 2,102.8 2,156.1 2,184.0 2,288.5 2,283.7 2,289.9 Consumption expenditures 440.8 440.5 446.3 457.7 454.6 475.1 499.3 531.7 590.8 663.1 485.7 505.1 501.5 505.0 520.0 527.0 531.1 548.6 569.4 582.6 590.4 620.7 635.9 668.9 672.3 675.2 Current transfer payments 799.2 839.0 888.3 918.8 946.5 986.1 1,038.1 1,130.5 1,243.4 1,333.8 1,008.2 1,028.8 1,047.8 1,067.4 1,094.2 1,120.6 1,135.8 1,171.3 1,211.9 1,241.6 1,249.2 1,270.8 1,287.3 1,339.5 1,348.9 1,359.3 Interest payments 261.3 290.4 297.3 300.0 298.8 282.7 283.3 257.5 229.3 215.9 285.1 285.7 282.5 279.6 273.7 262.4 252.7 241.4 227.1 235.9 226.7 227.6 217.7 222.5 215.6 207.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Subsidies 31.8 33.7 34.0 32.4 35.0 43.8 43.8 47.6 37.2 48.8 43.9 43.8 43.7 43.5 44.5 43.9 62.3 39.8 38.2 37.2 36.5 37.0 44.5 56.3 47.0 47.6 Net Federal Government saving ¥212.3 ¥197.0 ¥141.8 ¥55.8 38.8 103.6 189.5 50.5 ¥240.0 .................... 212.7 181.4 191.2 172.5 156.1 128.9 ¥80.1 ¥2.8 ¥188.8 ¥232.0 ¥242.9 ¥296.3 ¥320.4 ¥424.7 ¥499.4 .................... INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1997=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom United States 1 Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 1994 .................................... 1995 .................................... 1996 .................................... 1997 .................................... 1998 .................................... 1999 .................................... 2000 .................................... 2001 ..................................... 2002 .................................... 2003 p ................................... 85.2 89.4 89.3 93.5 93.1 94.7 100.0 100.0 105.9 103.5 110.6 109.5 115.4 118.5 111.5 115.0 110.9 117.3 111.2 .............. r 94.0 91.5 95.0 92.6 95.6 r 96.2 94.4 95.8 98.0 97.3 r 96.6 95.8 96.5 96.4 98.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 93.5 r 103.4 104.2 101.2 101.0 93.8 r 105.7 105.7 101.2 102.2 99.0 r 110.1 112.3 105.3 104.2 92.7 r 111.3 112.8 104.1 102.5 91.7 r 109.9 111.6 102.7 99.7 94.4 ............ .............. .............. .............. 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 148.2 151.4 153.8 156.3 157.8 160.5 164.9 169.1 172.9 177.7 119.3 119.2 119.3 121.5 122.2 121.8 121.0 120.1 119.0 118.7 145.8 148.4 151.4 153.2 154.2 155.0 157.6 160.2 163.3 166.7 131.1 133.3 135.3 137.8 139.1 140.0 142.0 144.8 146.7 148.3 195.3 205.6 213.8 218.2 222.5 226.2 231.9 238.3 244.3 250.8 169.3 175.2 179.4 185.1 191.4 194.3 200.1 203.6 207.0 213.0 2002: Nov ........................... Dec .......................... 2003: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May .......................... June ......................... July .......................... Aug .......................... Sept ......................... Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec p ......................... 111.2 118.1 110.6 118.3 r 118.7 111.2 r 118.0 111.6 r 117.9 110.8 110.1 117.0 110.0 116.6 r115.3 110.0 110.8 116.3 r 115.2 110.9 r 117.9 111.5 111.9 117.9 r 113.1 117.9 113.2 .............. 93.5 r 109.3 113.4 103.3 99.1 93.3 r 109.0 110.5 102.9 99.4 95.0 r 108.1 112.7 102.7 98.4 r 102.7 93.2 r 109.8 113.2 99.4 93.4 r 109.3 112.6 102.4 99.0 r r 92.1 110.0 112.3 102.4 99.0 r 111.5 94.2 r 107.3 101.1 99.0 r 110.8 93.1 r 108.6 101.7 99.8 r 113.7 r 103.5 92.9 r 110.0 99.6 r 110.4 92.8 r 109.4 103.4 98.7 r 110.5 r 102.8 96.4 r 110.2 99.0 r 97.0 r 111.1 r 113.6 r 103.0 r 99.7 97.8 110.6 115.0 103.3 98.6 96.5 ............ .............. .............. .............. 181.3 180.9 181.7 183.1 184.2 183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6 185.2 185.0 184.5 184.3 175.5 174.9 176.4 177.7 178.4 177.1 177.2 177.4 177.5 178.0 178.3 177.8 178.3 178.4 118.9 118.9 118.5 118.2 118.5 118.9 119.2 118.8 118.5 118.8 118.9 118.9 118.3 118.4 164.2 164.5 164.8 165.9 166.7 166.4 166.2 166.5 166.4 166.7 167.3 167.8 167.9 168.1 146.2 147.6 147.6 148.3 148.5 148.1 147.8 148.2 148.5 148.5 148.3 148.3 148.1 149.2 246.7 247.0 248.0 248.4 249.2 249.8 250.4 250.7 251.1 251.7 252.1 252.3 252.9 253.1 209.4 209.7 209.6 210.7 211.4 212.9 213.3 213.0 213.0 213.4 214.4 214.5 214.7 215.6 2004: Janp ......................... .............. .............. ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ............ 1 Data 149.3 ............ .............. Data are as available as of late January 2004. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). relate to all urban consumers. NOTE.—See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period BOP basis Total, Census basis 1 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonand plies except cles, food) bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive BOP basis IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 1 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 456.9 502.9 575.2 612.1 678.4 670.4 684.0 772.0 718.7 681.9 465.1 512.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 682.1 695.8 781.9 729.1 693.1 40.6 42.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 46.4 46.0 47.9 49.4 49.6 111.8 121.4 146.2 147.7 158.2 148.3 147.5 172.6 160.1 156.8 181.7 205.0 233.0 253.0 294.5 299.4 310.8 356.9 321.7 290.5 52.4 57.8 61.8 65.0 74.0 72.4 75.3 80.4 75.4 78.9 54.7 60.0 64.4 70.1 77.4 80.3 80.9 89.4 88.3 84.4 589.4 668.7 749.4 803.1 876.5 917.1 1,030.0 1,224.4 1,145.9 1,164.7 580.7 663.3 743.5 795.3 869.7 911.9 1,024.6 1,218.0 1,141.0 1,161.4 27.9 31.0 33.2 35.7 39.7 41.2 43.6 46.0 46.6 49.7 145.6 162.1 181.8 204.5 213.8 200.1 221.4 299.0 273.9 267.7 152.4 184.4 221.4 228.1 253.3 269.5 295.7 347.0 298.0 283.3 102.4 118.3 123.8 128.9 139.8 148.7 179.0 195.9 189.8 203.7 134.0 146.3 159.9 172.0 193.8 217.0 241.9 281.8 284.3 307.9 185.4 199.8 218.5 238.8 255.5 262.1 281.5 298.1 288.9 292.2 122.1 131.1 139.4 150.6 164.4 178.6 196.7 221.0 219.5 227.4 ¥115.6 ¥150.6 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥180.5 ¥229.8 ¥328.8 ¥436.1 ¥411.9 ¥468.3 ¥132.5 ¥165.8 ¥174.2 ¥191.0 ¥198.1 ¥246.7 ¥346.0 ¥452.4 ¥427.2 ¥482.9 63.3 68.6 79.1 88.1 91.1 83.5 84.8 77.0 69.4 64.8 ¥69.2 ¥97.2 ¥95.1 ¥102.9 ¥107.0 ¥163.2 ¥261.2 ¥375.4 ¥357.8 ¥418.0 2002: Nov ... Dec ... 57.8 55.8 58.7 56.7 4.3 4.4 13.5 13.6 24.4 22.5 6.5 6.5 7.2 7.0 101.9 103.2 101.6 103.0 4.4 4.5 23.8 24.3 24.4 24.7 17.6 17.7 27.5 27.7 25.2 25.3 19.6 20.2 ¥42.9 ¥46.3 ¥44.1 ¥47.4 5.5 5.1 ¥38.6 ¥42.3 2003: Jan ... Feb ... Mar ... Apr ... May .. June July .. Aug ... Sept ... Octr ... Novp .. 57.1 57.9 58.3 57.2 57.8 59.3 60.4 57.7 59.7 61.6 63.8 57.9 58.8 59.3 58.3 58.6 60.1 61.2 58.6 60.5 62.4 64.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.1 14.1 14.0 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.0 14.1 14.7 14.7 23.0 24.1 23.7 23.0 23.3 24.2 24.8 23.9 24.7 25.6 27.3 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.1 6.7 6.9 6.7 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6 8.1 102.0 101.6 105.8 103.6 104.4 104.3 105.4 102.4 106.3 108.8 107.4 101.8 101.4 105.6 103.3 104.1 103.9 105.2 101.9 106.0 108.5 107.2 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.9 25.0 26.0 28.4 26.1 25.6 25.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.8 25.6 24.5 23.2 23.2 24.1 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.0 25.3 25.5 25.7 17.0 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.8 18.2 18.0 15.6 17.4 18.3 18.2 26.9 26.9 28.0 27.7 27.7 26.7 27.3 27.2 27.6 29.0 28.8 24.9 24.8 24.3 23.9 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.8 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.5 19.6 20.2 20.6 20.5 20.8 20.9 21.2 ¥43.9 ¥42.6 ¥46.3 ¥45.1 ¥45.4 ¥43.7 ¥44.0 ¥43.3 ¥45.5 ¥46.1 ¥42.6 ¥44.9 ¥43.7 ¥47.5 ¥46.4 ¥46.7 ¥45.1 ¥45.0 ¥44.7 ¥46.6 ¥47.1 ¥43.6 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.6 ¥40.0 ¥38.6 ¥43.0 ¥42.0 ¥41.8 ¥40.4 ¥40.5 ¥39.6 ¥41.3 ¥41.6 ¥38.0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 2003, the goods deficit fell to $136.2 billion, from $138.1 billion in the second quarter. The current account deficit fell to $135.0 billion in the third quarter from $139.4 billion in the second quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Period Exports Imports Services Balance on goods ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... 456,943 502,859 575,204 612,113 678,366 670,416 683,965 771,994 718,712 681,874 ¥589,394 ¥668,690 ¥749,374 ¥803,113 ¥876,485 ¥917,112 ¥1,029,987 ¥1,224,417 ¥1,145,927 ¥1,164,746 2000: III ........... IV ........... 198,821 196,830 ¥314,622 ¥315,531 ¥115,801 ¥118,701 2001: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 194,145 184,457 172,526 167,584 2002: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 2003: I .............. II ............. III p .......... 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 Adjusted Net military transactions 2 ¥132,451 1,385 ¥165,831 2,570 ¥174,170 4,600 ¥191,000 5,385 ¥198,119 4,968 ¥246,696 5,220 ¥346,022 2,593 ¥452,423 317 ¥427,215 ¥2,436 ¥482,872 ¥7,302 Net travel and transportation 36 Other services, net Receipts Payments Balance on income Unilateral current transfers, net 3 Balance on current account 19,714 16,305 21,772 25,015 22,152 10,210 7,085 2,486 ¥3,254 ¥3,781 42,185 49,767 52,729 57,731 63,952 68,113 75,143 74,236 75,086 75,917 ¥69,166 ¥97,189 ¥95,069 ¥102,869 ¥107,047 ¥163,153 ¥261,201 ¥375,384 ¥357,819 ¥418,038 134,545 165,838 211,920 226,271 261,026 258,648 290,198 346,861 277,362 255,542 ¥110,255 ¥148,744 ¥186,880 ¥201,743 ¥240,371 ¥251,751 ¥273,088 ¥327,256 ¥266,673 ¥259,512 24,290 17,094 25,040 24,528 20,655 6,897 17,110 19,605 10,689 ¥3,970 ¥37,113 ¥37,583 ¥35,188 ¥38,862 ¥41,292 ¥48,435 ¥46,755 ¥55,679 ¥46,615 ¥58,853 ¥81,989 ¥117,678 ¥105,217 ¥117,203 ¥127,684 ¥204,691 ¥290,846 ¥411,458 ¥393,745 ¥480,861 ¥225 107 ¥75 213 18,161 18,783 ¥97,940 ¥99,598 85,791 91,000 ¥82,938 ¥82,721 2,853 8,279 ¥13,480 ¥17,435 ¥108,567 ¥108,754 ¥306,871 ¥291,627 ¥278,847 ¥268,582 ¥112,726 ¥772 ¥107,170 101 ¥106,321 ¥376 ¥100,998 ¥1,389 1,182 ¥1,157 ¥719 ¥2,563 18,876 18,770 18,373 19,068 ¥93,440 ¥89,456 ¥89,043 ¥85,882 79,087 72,607 65,701 59,967 ¥78,157 ¥71,794 ¥69,038 ¥47,683 930 813 ¥3,337 12,284 ¥11,494 ¥11,321 ¥11,256 ¥12,542 ¥104,004 ¥99,964 ¥103,636 ¥86,140 165,298 171,421 174,315 170,840 ¥271,331 ¥292,707 ¥297,627 ¥303,081 ¥106,033 ¥121,286 ¥123,312 ¥132,241 ¥1,609 ¥1,917 ¥1,572 ¥2,204 ¥597 ¥1,322 ¥1,118 ¥746 18,182 ¥90,057 19,637 ¥104,888 19,022 ¥106,980 19,075 ¥116,116 60,632 63,920 66,124 64,864 ¥61,365 ¥68,378 ¥67,871 ¥61,898 ¥733 ¥4,458 ¥1,747 2,966 ¥15,938 ¥13,481 ¥13,997 ¥15,436 ¥106,728 ¥122,827 ¥122,724 ¥128,586 173,346 174,247 177,858 ¥309,364 ¥312,335 ¥314,090 ¥136,018 ¥2,847 ¥138,088 ¥3,107 ¥136,232 ¥2,519 ¥2,339 ¥3,012 ¥2,664 19,575 ¥121,629 20,023 ¥124,184 20,098 ¥121,317 62,901 64,310 67,344 ¥62,710 ¥62,580 ¥64,749 191 1,730 2,595 ¥17,269 ¥16,940 ¥16,319 ¥138,707 ¥139,394 ¥135,041 from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). 2 Transfers Income receipts and payments Balance on goods and services 3 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the financial account, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $39.3 billion in the third quarter of 2003, in contrast to an increase of $72.8 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $7.1 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $36.8 billion in the second quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Financial account Period Capital account transactions, net U.S.-owned assets abroad, net [increase/financial outflow (¥)] Total U.S. official reserve assets 4 Other U.S. Government assets Statistical discrepancy Foreign-owned assets in the U.S., net [increase/financial inflow (+)] U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 (unadjusted, end of period) .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. ¥1,299 ¥1,723 ¥927 ¥654 ¥1,044 ¥740 ¥4,843 ¥799 ¥1,062 ¥1,285 ¥200,552 ¥176,056 ¥352,376 ¥413,923 ¥487,599 ¥347,829 ¥503,640 ¥569,798 ¥349,939 ¥178,985 ¥1,379 5,346 ¥9,742 6,668 ¥1,010 ¥6,783 8,747 ¥290 ¥4,911 ¥3,681 ¥351 ¥390 ¥984 ¥989 68 ¥422 2,750 ¥941 ¥486 ¥32 ¥198,822 ¥181,012 ¥341,650 ¥419,602 ¥486,657 ¥340,624 ¥515,137 ¥568,567 ¥344,542 ¥175,272 282,040 305,989 438,562 551,096 706,809 423,569 740,210 1,026,139 765,531 706,983 71,753 39,583 109,880 126,724 19,036 ¥19,903 43,543 37,724 5,104 94,860 210,287 266,406 328,682 424,372 687,773 443,472 696,667 988,415 760,427 612,123 1,799 ¥10,532 19,958 ¥19,316 ¥90,482 129,691 59,119 ¥44,084 ¥20,785 ¥45,852 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 73,442 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 81,761 71,516 67,647 68,654 79,006 2000: III .......................... IV ........................... 2001: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2002: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2003: I ............................. II ............................ III p ......................... ¥218 ¥192 ¥267 ¥260 ¥286 ¥249 ¥277 ¥286 ¥364 ¥358 ¥388 ¥1,553 ¥795 ¥86,485 ¥160,602 ¥192,224 ¥92,213 37,353 ¥102,853 ¥35,227 ¥128,567 29,712 ¥44,902 ¥101,331 ¥112,818 ¥4,891 ¥346 ¥1,410 190 ¥1,343 ¥3,559 ¥199 390 ¥1,843 ¥1,416 ¥812 83 ¥170 ¥611 114 ¥358 77 ¥783 77 143 133 42 ¥27 ¥180 ¥70 427 530 ¥86,253 ¥158,834 ¥192,491 ¥90,087 40,835 ¥102,797 ¥35,750 ¥126,766 31,155 ¥43,910 ¥101,344 ¥113,075 ¥4,810 240,954 298,194 313,923 213,471 24,084 214,051 146,813 221,242 141,478 197,448 242,004 262,819 128,200 12,952 ¥4,318 4,290 ¥21,197 16,702 5,309 6,106 47,552 8,992 32,210 40,978 57,000 43,895 228,002 302,512 309,633 234,668 7,382 208,742 140,707 173,690 132,486 165,238 201,026 205,819 84,305 ¥45,684 ¥28,646 ¥17,428 ¥21,034 42,485 ¥24,809 ¥4,581 30,438 ¥48,102 ¥23,602 ¥1,578 ¥9,054 12,527 ¥8,423 3,241 6,244 799 ¥8,244 1,200 8,579 2,091 ¥12,409 1,744 9,479 1,454 ¥12,200 66,256 67,647 64,222 64,847 70,963 68,654 67,574 74,696 75,860 79,006 80,049 81,660 84,431 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 4 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits ............................................................................................. National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................. Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 2004 91–104