Full text of Economic Indicators : January 2003
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108th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 2003 (Includes data available as of February 4, 2003) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2003 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah, Chairman JIM SAXTON, NEW JERSEY, Vice Chairman SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DONALD B. MARRON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS R. GLENN HUBBARD, Chairman RANDALL S. KROSZNER, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 2002, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 2.5 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1996 dollars) rose 0.7 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.8 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1993 ...................... 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 p .................... 1999: I ................. II ................ III .............. IV ............... 2000: I ................. II ................ III .............. IV ............... 2001: I ................. II ................ III .............. IV ............... 2002: I ................. II ............... III ............. IV p ............ 1 GDP Exports and imports of goods and services Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment Net exports Exports 6,642.3 7,054.3 7,400.5 7,813.2 8,318.4 8,781.5 9,274.3 9,824.6 10,082.2 10,442.1 9,092.7 9,171.7 9,316.5 9,516.4 9,649.5 9,820.7 9,874.8 9,953.6 10,028.1 10,049.9 10,097.7 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,572.3 ¥60.5 ¥87.1 ¥84.3 ¥89.0 ¥89.3 ¥151.7 ¥249.9 ¥365.5 ¥348.9 ¥418.1 ¥196.4 ¥241.8 ¥274.6 ¥286.7 ¥330.6 ¥353.2 ¥384.9 ¥393.2 ¥372.7 ¥365.7 ¥312.6 ¥344.5 ¥360.1 ¥425.6 ¥432.9 ¥453.9 658.0 725.1 818.6 874.2 966.4 964.9 989.3 1,101.1 1,034.1 1,017.6 959.2 970.2 996.8 1,031.2 1,055.9 1,098.0 1,130.9 1,119.8 1,100.0 1,059.7 1,005.8 971.1 977.5 1,018.1 1,038.6 1,036.2 4,454.7 4,716.4 4,969.0 5,237.5 5,529.3 5,856.0 6,246.5 6,683.7 6,987.0 7,300.9 6,076.6 6,195.6 6,299.4 6,414.5 6,552.2 6,638.7 6,736.1 6,808.0 6,904.7 6,959.8 6,983.7 7,099.9 7,174.2 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,413.8 955.1 1,097.1 1,143.8 1,242.7 1,390.5 1,538.7 1,636.7 1,755.4 1,586.0 1,586.3 1,618.0 1,597.8 1,637.9 1,693.2 1,711.4 1,786.3 1,766.4 1,757.4 1,671.1 1,597.2 1,574.9 1,500.7 1,559.4 1,588.0 1,597.3 1,600.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 718.5 812.1 902.8 963.1 1,055.8 1,116.7 1,239.2 1,466.6 1,383.0 1,435.7 1,155.6 1,212.0 1,271.4 1,317.9 1,386.5 1,451.1 1,515.8 1,513.0 1,472.8 1,425.3 1,318.4 1,315.6 1,337.5 1,443.7 1,471.5 1,490.1 1,293.0 1,327.9 1,372.0 1,421.9 1,487.9 1,538.5 1,641.0 1,751.0 1,858.0 1,973.1 1,594.6 1,620.1 1,653.9 1,695.4 1,716.5 1,748.8 1,757.2 1,781.4 1,825.0 1,858.5 1,851.7 1,896.8 1,939.5 1,959.8 1,981.1 2,011.9 527.3 521.1 521.5 531.6 538.2 539.2 565.0 589.2 628.1 693.5 550.0 556.1 569.0 584.9 575.7 598.5 589.7 592.9 613.3 624.8 627.4 646.9 672.0 688.2 697.7 716.0 National defense 364.9 355.1 350.6 357.0 352.6 349.1 364.3 374.9 399.9 447.5 354.0 355.1 368.7 379.5 365.5 379.1 375.0 380.0 391.4 395.2 400.3 412.8 431.7 442.1 451.2 464.8 Nondefense 162.4 165.9 170.9 174.6 185.6 190.1 200.7 214.3 228.2 246.0 196.0 201.0 200.3 205.5 210.2 219.4 214.7 213.0 221.9 229.6 227.2 234.1 240.3 246.1 246.5 251.2 State and local 765.7 806.8 850.5 890.4 949.7 999.3 1,076.0 1,161.8 1,229.9 1,279.6 1,044.5 1,064.0 1,084.8 1,110.5 1,140.8 1,150.3 1,167.4 1,188.5 1,211.7 1,233.7 1,224.3 1,249.8 1,267.5 1,271.6 1,283.3 1,295.9 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 6,621.2 6,991.8 7,367.5 7,783.2 8,255.5 8,708.4 9,214.8 9,761.1 10,142.5 10,443.6 9,018.0 9,144.0 9,269.7 9,427.5 9,602.6 9,731.5 9,813.6 9,896.6 10,055.3 10,107.0 10,158.3 10,249.4 10,343.0 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,569.3 6,702.8 7,141.4 7,484.8 7,902.1 8,407.7 8,933.3 9,524.2 10,190.1 10,431.0 10,860.2 9,289.1 9,413.5 9,591.2 9,803.1 9,980.1 10,173.9 10,259.7 10,346.8 10,400.8 10,415.5 10,410.4 10,497.4 10,673.1 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,026.2 6,666.7 7,071.1 7,420.9 7,831.2 8,325.4 8,778.1 9,297.1 9,848.0 10,104.1 .............. 9,112.7 9,195.9 9,333.6 9,546.0 9,670.5 9,846.4 9,892.5 9,982.8 10,038.0 10,081.0 10,109.3 10,188.1 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (1996) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1993 ......... 1994 ......... 1995 ......... 1996 ......... 1997 ......... 1998 ......... 1999 ......... 2000 ......... 2001 ......... 2002 p ....... 1999: I .... II ... III IV .. 2000: I .... II ... III IV .. 2001: I .... II ... III IV .. 2002: I .... II .. III IV p Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product 7,062.6 7,347.7 7,543.8 7,813.2 8,159.5 8,508.9 8,859.0 9,191.4 9,214.5 9,436.1 8,733.2 8,775.5 8,886.9 9,040.1 9,097.4 9,205.7 9,218.7 9,243.8 9,229.9 9,193.1 9,186.4 9,248.8 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,503.2 4,748.9 4,928.1 5,075.6 5,237.5 5,423.9 5,683.7 5,964.5 6,223.9 6,377.2 6,573.0 5,851.4 5,932.8 6,000.1 6,073.6 6,151.9 6,198.2 6,256.8 6,288.8 6,326.0 6,348.0 6,370.9 6,464.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,625.7 Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment 683.6 744.6 817.5 899.4 1,009.3 1,135.9 1,228.4 1,324.2 1,255.1 1,182.8 1,197.5 1,220.4 1,243.3 1,252.4 1,297.1 1,329.1 1,340.7 1,329.9 1,311.4 1,261.0 1,241.7 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,183.2 276.0 302.7 291.7 313.3 319.7 345.1 368.3 372.4 373.5 387.6 364.1 368.4 369.2 371.7 379.1 376.2 367.2 367.2 374.5 374.0 374.3 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 393.6 Change in private inventories 20.0 66.8 30.4 30.0 63.8 76.7 62.8 65.0 ¥61.4 ¥.5 80.0 31.2 47.6 92.2 45.3 91.5 63.1 59.9 ¥26.9 ¥58.3 ¥61.8 ¥98.4 ¥28.9 4.9 18.8 3.3 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports ¥59.1 ¥86.5 ¥78.4 ¥89.0 ¥113.3 ¥221.1 ¥320.5 ¥398.8 ¥415.9 ¥482.2 ¥283.2 ¥319.6 ¥339.6 ¥339.5 ¥368.8 ¥394.6 ¥413.1 ¥418.5 ¥404.5 ¥414.8 ¥419.0 ¥425.3 ¥446.6 ¥487.4 ¥488.0 ¥506.9 672.7 732.8 808.2 874.2 981.5 1,002.4 1,036.3 1,137.2 1,076.1 1,061.7 1,007.5 1,018.1 1,044.1 1,075.6 1,095.8 1,133.9 1,165.5 1,153.7 1,135.8 1,098.8 1,048.0 1,021.8 1,030.6 1,065.5 1,077.7 1,073.0 Imports Total Total 731.8 819.4 886.6 963.1 1,094.8 1,223.5 1,356.8 1,536.0 1,492.0 1,543.9 1,290.7 1,337.7 1,383.7 1,415.2 1,464.6 1,528.5 1,578.6 1,572.2 1,540.3 1,513.6 1,467.0 1,447.2 1,477.1 1,552.9 1,565.7 1,579.9 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 1,398.8 1,400.1 1,406.4 1,421.9 1,455.4 1,483.3 1,540.6 1,582.5 1,640.4 1,712.8 1,515.9 1,526.7 1,546.5 1,573.2 1,568.3 1,586.1 1,582.2 1,593.4 1,615.7 1,638.0 1,633.3 1,674.5 1,697.3 1,703.3 1,715.6 1,735.1 National defense 572.0 551.3 536.5 531.6 529.6 525.4 537.7 544.4 570.6 612.9 527.2 530.6 540.1 553.0 533.8 554.0 543.7 546.4 559.0 567.2 568.9 587.2 597.8 608.7 615.1 630.2 394.7 375.9 361.9 357.0 347.7 341.6 348.8 348.7 366.0 400.0 341.2 341.0 352.4 360.8 341.3 353.4 347.9 351.9 359.0 361.4 365.5 378.0 388.5 395.8 402.5 413.3 Nondefense 177.3 175.5 174.6 174.6 181.8 183.8 188.8 195.6 204.4 213.0 185.9 189.5 187.7 192.1 192.3 200.3 195.6 194.3 199.8 205.6 203.2 209.1 209.3 212.9 212.7 217.0 State and local 827.0 848.9 869.9 890.4 925.8 957.7 1,002.4 1,037.4 1,069.4 1,100.0 988.3 995.7 1,006.0 1,019.8 1,033.8 1,031.8 1,037.8 1,046.3 1,056.2 1,070.2 1,064.1 1,087.1 1,099.3 1,094.7 1,100.6 1,105.3 Final sales of domestic product 7,043.8 7,285.8 7,512.2 7,783.2 8,095.2 8,431.8 8,793.9 9,121.1 9,258.4 9,425.6 8,654.3 8,741.0 8,833.6 8,946.6 9,042.9 9,111.1 9,150.4 9,179.8 9,243.8 9,234.3 9,230.5 9,324.9 9,379.4 9,377.9 9,457.2 9,488.2 Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,120.6 7,087.8 7,434.2 7,364.3 7,621.8 7,564.0 7,902.1 7,831.2 8,271.7 8,168.1 8,721.3 8,508.4 9,160.2 8,883.7 9,561.2 9,216.2 9,600.7 9,237.3 9,880.6 .............. 9,002.1 8,755.5 9,076.2 8,801.8 9,204.9 8,906.4 9,357.7 9,071.1 9,440.8 9,119.7 9,571.9 9,233.0 9,600.9 9,238.2 9,631.0 9,274.0 9,604.6 9,241.7 9,577.1 9,224.3 9,575.8 9,199.8 9,645.3 9,283.5 9,778.2 9,367.5 9,840.8 9,376.7 9,934.7 9,477.9 9,968.6 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 1996=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 .................. 1996 .................. 1997 .................. 1998 ................. 1999 ................. 2000 ................. 2001 ................. 2002 p ................ 1999: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2000: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2001: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2002: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV p ........ Gross domestic product 94.05 96.01 98.10 100.00 101.95 103.20 104.69 106.89 109.42 110.66 104.12 104.51 104.83 105.27 106.07 106.68 107.12 107.68 108.65 109.32 109.92 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 Total 93.81 95.70 97.90 100.00 101.94 103.03 104.73 107.39 109.56 111.07 103.85 104.43 104.99 105.61 106.51 107.11 107.66 108.26 109.15 109.64 109.62 109.84 110.14 110.89 111.36 111.89 Durable goods Nondurable goods Services 99.06 100.56 101.06 100.00 97.75 95.40 93.03 91.46 89.70 87.20 93.71 93.24 92.84 92.38 91.91 91.74 91.24 90.96 90.70 89.91 89.31 88.97 88.02 87.38 86.96 86.48 96.14 96.83 97.93 100.00 101.34 101.31 103.69 107.59 109.17 109.64 102.13 103.29 104.16 105.10 106.48 107.28 108.04 108.53 109.00 109.80 109.42 108.45 108.52 109.75 109.92 110.35 91.56 94.16 97.25 100.00 103.12 105.53 107.81 110.85 114.32 117.45 106.92 107.44 108.07 108.78 109.75 110.44 111.15 112.02 113.42 114.08 114.40 115.38 116.14 117.00 117.88 118.75 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 99.81 100.54 100.93 100.00 99.02 96.95 95.53 95.59 95.73 94.42 96.04 95.68 95.28 95.16 95.33 95.43 95.73 95.85 95.95 95.96 95.68 95.31 94.81 94.47 94.16 94.24 91.23 94.48 97.91 100.00 102.68 105.58 109.59 114.40 119.09 121.50 108.02 109.22 110.11 110.98 112.89 113.98 114.87 115.91 117.49 118.78 119.51 120.60 120.61 121.40 121.38 122.57 Exports Imports Total 97.82 98.94 101.28 100.00 98.47 96.26 95.47 96.83 96.10 95.85 95.21 95.29 95.47 95.87 96.36 96.83 97.03 97.06 96.85 96.44 95.97 95.03 94.85 95.55 96.38 96.57 98.18 99.12 101.83 100.00 96.44 91.27 91.33 95.49 92.70 92.99 89.54 90.60 91.88 93.13 94.67 94.94 96.02 96.24 95.61 94.17 89.87 90.91 90.55 92.97 93.98 94.32 92.18 94.51 97.21 100.00 101.63 102.63 105.08 108.23 110.09 113.14 104.33 104.82 105.36 105.77 107.87 108.04 108.48 108.52 109.72 110.15 110.29 110.18 112.41 113.06 113.43 113.62 National defense Nondefense State and local 92.45 94.49 96.88 100.00 101.41 102.22 104.44 107.53 109.27 111.86 103.77 104.15 104.65 105.16 107.09 107.26 107.80 107.96 109.02 109.35 109.50 109.22 111.14 111.70 112.11 112.46 91.58 94.55 97.90 100.00 102.06 103.41 106.29 109.55 111.63 115.52 105.41 106.08 106.70 106.94 109.34 109.52 109.77 109.59 111.06 111.67 111.79 111.97 114.79 115.60 115.89 115.78 92.59 95.04 97.77 100.00 102.58 104.34 107.33 111.98 115.01 116.33 105.70 106.86 107.84 108.89 110.35 111.49 112.49 113.59 114.72 115.28 115.06 114.97 115.29 116.16 116.60 117.24 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 1996=100 Period 1993 ............................................................. 1994 ............................................................. 1995 ............................................................. 1996 ............................................................. 1997 .............................................................. 1998 ............................................................. 1999 ............................................................. 2000 ............................................................. 2001 ............................................................. 2002 p ............................................................ 1998: I ......................................................... II ....................................................... III ...................................................... IV ...................................................... 1999: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2000: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2001: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2002: I ......................................................... II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV p .................................................... 1 Percent Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP (current dollars) 85.01 90.29 94.72 100.00 106.47 112.39 118.70 125.74 129.04 133.65 110.43 111.32 112.84 114.99 116.38 117.39 119.24 121.80 123.50 125.69 126.39 127.40 128.35 128.63 129.24 129.95 132.00 132.81 134.47 135.31 GDP chain-type price index 90.39 94.04 96.55 100.00 104.43 108.91 113.39 117.64 117.94 120.77 107.46 108.06 109.16 110.94 111.78 112.32 113.74 115.70 116.44 117.82 117.99 118.31 118.13 117.66 117.58 118.37 119.84 120.21 121.41 121.63 94.05 96.01 98.10 100.00 101.95 103.20 104.69 106.89 109.42 110.66 102.76 103.02 103.38 103.66 104.12 104.52 104.84 105.28 106.08 106.69 107.13 107.68 108.66 109.32 109.92 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.24 changes based on unrounded data. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. GDP implicit price deflator GDP (current dollars) 94.05 96.01 98.10 100.00 101.95 103.20 104.69 106.89 109.42 110.66 102.76 103.01 103.38 103.65 104.12 104.51 104.83 105.27 106.07 106.68 107.12 107.68 108.65 109.32 109.92 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 5.1 6.2 4.9 5.6 6.5 5.6 5.6 5.9 2.6 3.6 7.2 3.3 5.6 7.8 4.9 3.5 6.5 8.9 5.7 7.3 2.2 3.2 3.0 .9 1.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 5.1 2.5 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP chain-type price index 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 .3 2.4 6.1 2.2 4.1 6.7 3.0 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 ¥.6 ¥1.6 ¥.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 .7 GDP implicit price deflator 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 ¥.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 ¥.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–OUTPUT, PRICE, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1992 ........................................................ 1993 ........................................................ 1994 ........................................................ 1995 ........................................................ 1996 ........................................................ 1997 ......................................................... 1998 ........................................................ 1999 ......................................................... 2000 ........................................................ 2001 ........................................................ 1999: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2000: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2001: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2002: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ 1 The Current dollars Chained (1996) dollars 3,288.0 3,457.6 3,737.2 3,945.9 4,159.5 4,435.1 4,707.1 4,981.0 5,295.0 5,354.2 4,899.9 4,945.1 4,995.0 5,084.2 5,228.7 5,275.1 5,335.5 5,340.7 5,318.6 5,340.9 5,365.7 5,391.6 5,423.8 5,489.0 5,533.0 3,468.4 3,573.8 3,801.5 3,960.1 4,159.5 4,404.2 4,658.1 4,902.1 5,148.3 5,141.8 4,832.3 4,866.8 4,914.7 4,994.6 5,109.2 5,129.2 5,180.2 5,174.4 5,131.4 5,125.2 5,121.3 5,189.3 5,231.3 5,298.7 5,348.0 Price, costs, and profits per unit of real output (dollars) Price per unit of real gross product of nonfinancial corporate business 1 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.948 .967 .983 .996 1.000 1.007 1.011 1.016 1.029 1.041 1.014 1.016 1.016 1.018 1.023 1.028 1.030 1.032 1.037 1.042 1.048 1.039 1.037 1.036 1.035 0.633 .641 .639 .645 .641 .644 .656 .667 .688 .695 .665 .666 .668 .671 .682 .683 .690 .697 .699 .699 .698 .684 .682 .680 .681 deflator for gross product of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. profits from current production. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 3 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.236 .236 .238 .239 .236 .237 .240 .243 .250 .267 .239 .241 .246 .246 .245 .250 .252 .256 .262 .266 .272 .268 .268 .269 .270 Consumption of fixed capital Indirect business tax, etc.2 Net interest 0.107 .108 .109 .110 .111 .112 .112 .113 .116 .127 .112 .113 .115 .114 .114 .116 .117 .119 .122 .125 .134 .127 .128 .129 .130 0.096 .098 .101 .100 .099 .098 .098 .098 .099 .102 .097 .097 .098 .098 .098 .099 .099 .100 .102 .103 .099 .103 .103 .103 .104 0.033 .030 .028 .029 .026 .027 .030 .032 .035 .038 .030 .031 .033 .034 .033 .035 .036 .037 .038 .038 .039 .038 .037 .037 .036 Total 0.080 .091 .106 .112 .122 .126 .114 .106 .090 .079 .110 .109 .103 .101 .096 .096 .088 .079 .075 .077 .079 .087 .086 .087 .084 Profits tax liability 0.026 .029 .034 .035 .036 .036 .033 .034 .033 .024 .034 .035 .034 .033 .036 .036 .033 .030 .026 .027 .025 .018 .023 .025 .025 Profits after tax 4 0.054 .062 .072 .077 .086 .090 .081 .072 .056 .055 .076 .074 .069 .068 .060 .060 .055 .050 .049 .050 .053 .068 .064 .062 .059 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Indirect 3 Unit 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 p .................................... 1999: III .............................. IV .............................. 2000: I ................................. II ............................... III .............................. IV .............................. 2001: I ................................. II ............................... III .............................. IV .............................. 2002: I ................................. II ............................... III .............................. IV p ............................. 1 Includes Compensation of employees1 5,251.9 5,556.8 5,876.7 6,210.4 6,618.4 7,041.4 7,468.7 7,984.4 8,122.0 ................ 7,475.9 7,650.1 7,860.2 7,954.5 8,048.3 8,074.8 8,092.1 8,110.1 8,089.1 8,196.8 8,268.5 8,328.0 8,388.1 ................ Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 3,814.4 4,016.2 4,202.5 4,395.6 4,651.3 4,989.6 5,308.8 5,723.4 5,874.9 5,998.8 5,329.0 5,429.1 5,627.3 5,670.5 5,773.1 5,822.7 5,878.9 5,879.3 5,880.4 5,860.9 5,908.4 5,963.9 6,026.6 6,096.4 Nonfarm 30.1 31.9 22.2 34.3 29.7 25.6 27.7 22.6 19.0 12.7 25.7 25.4 22.3 25.0 21.7 21.2 19.3 18.4 19.3 19.2 21.7 7.5 10.7 10.9 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 431.7 444.6 475.5 510.5 551.5 598.2 650.7 692.2 708.8 744.2 657.0 672.0 680.2 693.8 696.9 698.1 701.9 708.2 713.1 712.1 726.7 740.0 748.0 761.9 90.9 110.3 117.9 129.7 128.3 138.6 149.1 146.6 137.9 143.9 145.8 152.0 151.4 146.7 144.9 143.5 137.0 134.3 140.8 139.3 141.3 153.5 144.1 136.7 employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 510.5 573.2 668.8 754.0 833.8 777.4 805.8 788.1 731.6 ................ 788.0 824.7 807.6 807.3 787.7 749.7 706.5 721.4 687.2 811.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 ................ Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 506.4 561.0 650.2 729.4 800.8 739.4 757.9 767.3 675.1 ................ 739.6 781.0 774.3 784.2 772.3 738.6 696.9 714.0 663.2 626.3 641.3 652.2 653.4 ................ 510.4 573.4 668.5 726.3 792.4 721.1 762.1 782.3 670.2 ................ 753.4 797.6 796.9 800.5 780.6 751.1 707.0 720.2 654.3 599.1 639.4 657.9 668.5 ................ ¥4.0 ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 8.4 18.3 ¥4.2 ¥15.0 5.0 ................ ¥13.8 ¥16.6 ¥22.6 ¥16.4 ¥8.3 ¥12.5 ¥10.1 ¥6.2 8.9 27.2 1.9 ¥5.7 ¥15.1 ................ Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 4.1 12.2 18.6 24.6 32.9 38.0 47.9 20.8 56.5 129.1 48.5 43.7 33.4 23.1 15.4 11.1 9.6 7.3 23.9 185.1 156.3 132.8 117.6 109.9 374.3 380.5 389.8 386.3 423.9 511.9 526.6 611.5 649.8 682.4 530.4 546.8 571.3 611.1 624.0 639.6 648.5 648.6 648.3 653.9 672.8 678.1 687.6 691.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (1996) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1993 ............... 1994 ............... 1995 ............... 1996 ............... 1997 ............... 1998 ............... 1999 ............... 2000 ............... 2001 ............... 2002 p .............. 1999: III ....... IV ........ 2000: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2001: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2002: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV p ...... 1 Includes Total personal consumption expenditures 4,748.9 4,928.1 5,075.6 5,237.5 5,423.9 5,683.7 5,964.5 6,223.9 6,377.2 6,573.0 6,000.1 6,073.6 6,151.9 6,198.2 6,256.8 6,288.8 6,326.0 6,348.0 6,370.9 6,464.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,625.7 Total durable goods 518.3 557.7 583.5 616.5 657.3 726.7 812.5 878.9 931.9 1,000.5 824.1 844.2 879.5 871.3 888.5 876.5 900.6 912.4 922.6 992.0 975.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,012.9 Motor vehicles and parts 242.2 255.1 253.4 256.3 264.8 292.0 322.1 338.4 361.9 382.3 326.9 329.5 347.3 333.8 343.6 329.1 345.1 349.5 352.8 400.4 370.0 369.1 407.6 382.6 Furniture and household equipment 177.4 196.3 215.4 236.9 261.9 293.3 335.1 374.0 398.0 438.7 340.8 353.1 366.0 372.2 377.1 380.6 386.0 392.8 399.5 413.6 428.2 435.2 441.4 449.8 Nondurable goods Other 100.7 107.6 115.0 123.3 130.8 141.8 156.5 169.6 175.3 186.0 157.7 163.5 167.8 168.6 170.7 171.3 173.1 174.2 175.0 178.9 184.2 184.1 187.0 188.7 Total nondurable goods 1,430.3 1,485.1 1,529.0 1,574.1 1,619.9 1,686.4 1,765.1 1,833.8 1,869.8 1,928.0 1,767.7 1,799.9 1,809.7 1,831.6 1,840.9 1,853.1 1,863.7 1,862.3 1,868.3 1,885.0 1,921.4 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,944.2 Food 745.1 764.9 777.0 786.0 794.5 819.4 846.8 879.0 887.0 901.1 847.3 866.0 870.8 880.5 880.7 883.9 889.1 887.4 884.3 887.1 901.4 899.2 897.9 906.0 other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Clothing and shoes 218.5 231.6 244.3 258.6 271.6 290.4 312.1 329.4 337.7 356.9 314.1 314.7 322.3 327.9 332.3 335.1 334.3 334.7 337.1 344.8 355.8 355.1 355.3 361.3 Gasoline and oil 115.4 117.4 120.2 124.2 128.1 131.8 136.4 135.7 138.8 144.9 136.1 138.6 134.4 135.9 136.1 136.3 137.6 136.2 139.9 141.4 145.1 144.7 145.4 144.6 Services Fuel oil and coal 14.0 15.0 15.7 15.6 15.0 14.3 14.7 14.0 12.6 12.6 14.7 14.1 13.3 14.2 14.0 14.5 13.9 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.1 12.4 13.5 Other 338.5 356.8 372.0 389.8 410.8 430.8 455.7 477.0 495.5 515.9 456.3 466.6 469.8 474.1 479.2 484.7 490.0 493.5 496.5 502.0 510.1 513.1 518.0 522.5 Total services 1 2,802.5 2,886.2 2,963.4 3,047.0 3,147.0 3,273.4 3,395.4 3,524.5 3,594.9 3,673.6 3,417.4 3,440.7 3,477.7 3,508.2 3,541.7 3,570.6 3,576.3 3,589.3 3,597.5 3,616.6 3,642.2 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,699.1 Housing Medical care 728.1 749.1 763.7 772.6 787.2 808.7 835.0 851.3 866.0 880.1 837.7 841.6 844.7 849.5 853.4 857.5 862.0 865.1 867.1 869.6 874.0 878.5 882.1 885.8 775.4 783.1 797.7 814.4 835.4 857.7 875.6 900.1 938.3 978.6 878.6 884.4 888.5 896.2 903.2 912.5 921.4 932.7 944.3 954.9 963.4 974.7 984.4 992.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 13.9 15.0 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.4 16.8 17.2 17.0 16.7 17.1 17.2 18.1 17.1 17.4 16.3 16.9 16.5 16.2 18.4 16.3 16.3 17.6 16.5 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $35.3 billion (annual rate) in December, following an increase of $27.9 billion in November. Wages and salaries rose $14.8 billion in December, following an increase of $14.1 billion in November. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1993 ................................................................. 1994 ................................................................. 1995 ................................................................. 1996 ................................................................. 1997 ................................................................ 1998 ................................................................ 1999 ................................................................ 2000 ................................................................ 2001 ................................................................ 2002 p ............................................................... 2001: Dec ...................................................... 2002: Jan ....................................................... Feb ....................................................... Mar ....................................................... Apr ....................................................... May ....................................................... June ...................................................... July ...................................................... Aug ...................................................... Sept ...................................................... Oct r ...................................................... Nov r ..................................................... Dec p ..................................................... Total personal income 5,610.0 5,888.0 6,200.9 6,547.4 6,937.0 7,426.0 7,786.5 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,948.1 8,730.9 8,766.8 8,807.2 8,836.3 8,865.5 8,904.9 8,971.7 8,965.0 8,992.9 9,022.2 9,051.2 9,079.1 9,114.4 Wage and salary disbursements 1 3,085.2 3,236.7 3,424.7 3,626.5 3,888.9 4,192.8 4,470.4 4,836.3 4,950.6 5,023.9 4,948.6 4,941.0 4,956.9 4,975.4 4,968.8 4,989.0 5,034.0 5,016.7 5,045.7 5,068.5 5,082.4 5,096.5 5,111.3 Proprietors’ income 3 Other labor income 1 2 482.8 507.5 497.0 490.0 475.4 490.6 510.2 544.2 570.4 610.8 577.9 586.1 590.7 595.5 599.8 603.9 608.5 613.0 617.5 622.1 626.5 630.8 635.5 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. Farm 30.1 31.9 22.2 34.3 29.7 25.6 27.7 22.6 19.0 12.7 19.4 20.8 21.8 22.5 14.0 5.1 3.3 7.7 10.7 13.8 12.6 11.0 9.1 Nonfarm 431.7 444.6 475.5 510.5 551.5 598.2 650.7 692.2 708.8 744.2 717.4 722.4 728.2 729.4 737.4 740.9 741.7 747.4 746.7 750.0 757.9 760.9 767.0 Rental income of persons 4 90.9 110.3 117.9 129.7 128.3 138.6 149.1 146.6 137.9 143.9 137.3 139.4 141.3 143.2 148.3 153.5 158.7 152.4 144.1 135.9 136.2 136.8 137.2 Personal dividend income 203.0 234.7 254.0 297.4 334.9 348.3 328.0 375.7 409.2 433.8 419.6 421.8 423.8 425.5 428.0 430.3 432.7 435.0 437.3 439.4 441.6 443.8 446.0 Personal interest income 725.5 742.4 792.5 810.6 864.0 964.4 969.2 1,077.0 1,091.3 1,077.3 1,071.9 1,070.9 1,069.9 1,069.0 1,075.7 1,082.3 1,088.9 1,084.8 1,080.7 1,076.7 1,076.4 1,076.1 1,075.8 Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 798.6 833.9 885.9 928.8 962.2 983.7 1,018.5 1,070.3 1,170.4 1,287.1 1,212.9 1,243.5 1,255.0 1,257.6 1,275.0 1,282.9 1,289.9 1,293.2 1,297.3 1,304.6 1,307.4 1,314.2 1,324.6 237.8 254.1 268.8 280.4 297.9 316.3 337.4 358.4 372.3 385.5 374.0 379.2 380.4 381.8 381.6 383.0 386.1 385.2 387.2 388.8 389.9 391.0 392.1 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 With 5 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1996) dollars rose at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002. Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (1996) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 .................. 1996 .................. 1997 .................. 1998 .................. 1999 .................. 2000 .................. 2001 .................. 2002 p ................ 5,610.0 5,888.0 6,200.9 6,547.4 6,937.0 7,426.0 7,786.5 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,948.1 674.6 722.6 778.3 869.7 968.8 1,070.4 1,159.1 1,286.4 1,292.1 1,118.1 4,935.3 5,165.4 5,422.6 5,677.7 5,968.2 6,355.6 6,627.4 7,120.2 7,393.2 7,830.0 Chained (1996) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (1996) dollars Dollars 4,584.5 4,849.9 5,120.2 5,405.6 5,715.3 6,054.1 6,453.3 6,918.6 7,223.5 7,521.7 350.8 315.5 302.4 272.1 252.9 301.5 174.0 201.5 169.7 308.2 5,261.3 5,397.2 5,539.1 5,677.7 5,854.5 6,168.6 6,328.4 6,630.3 6,748.0 7,049.2 18,981 19,626 20,361 21,072 21,887 23,037 23,749 25,237 25,957 27,239 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 20,235 20,507 20,798 21,072 21,470 22,359 22,678 23,501 23,692 24,523 17,133 17,920 18,657 19,438 20,277 21,226 22,384 23,690 24,531 25,398 18,264 18,724 19,058 19,438 19,891 20,601 21,373 22,061 22,390 22,866 0.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.9 4.1 1.4 3.6 .8 3.5 7.1 6.1 5.6 4.8 4.2 4.7 2.6 2.8 2.3 3.9 260,011 263,194 266,327 269,448 272,687 275,891 279,062 282,128 284,822 287,456 22,634 22,828 23,234 23,451 23,637 23,680 23,624 23,537 24,071 23,537 24,296 24,479 24,609 24,706 22,542 22,882 23,311 23,562 23,847 24,039 24,330 24,468 24,491 24,834 25,040 25,271 25,579 25,700 21,471 21,666 21,887 21,998 22,150 22,206 22,291 22,317 22,342 22,609 22,735 22,790 22,969 22,968 0.3 3.5 7.3 3.8 3.2 .7 ¥.9 ¥1.5 9.4 ¥8.6 13.5 3.0 2.1 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 4.0 .8 3.5 4.0 3.8 4.3 279,449 280,328 281,076 281,758 282,476 283,202 283,794 284,442 285,154 285,898 286,507 287,072 287,770 288,475 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1999: III .......... IV .......... 2000: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2001: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2002: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV p ......... 7,807.7 7,960.2 8,211.6 8,350.2 8,487.8 8,576.6 8,658.1 8,676.2 8,706.2 8,700.9 8,803.4 8,914.0 8,993.3 9,081.6 1,167.2 1,201.8 1,256.3 1,273.0 1,299.6 1,316.7 1,340.6 1,336.1 1,181.9 1,309.7 1,136.8 1,121.8 1,107.3 1,106.6 6,640.5 6,758.4 6,955.3 7,077.2 7,188.2 7,259.8 7,317.5 7,340.0 7,524.2 7,391.2 7,666.7 7,792.2 7,886.0 7,975.0 6,507.2 6,629.4 6,775.9 6,869.8 6,976.7 7,052.1 7,143.9 7,198.5 7,222.0 7,329.6 7,396.3 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,629.6 133.3 129.0 179.4 207.5 211.5 207.7 173.7 141.6 302.2 61.5 270.4 314.3 303.0 345.3 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 6 6,325.0 6,399.3 6,530.4 6,607.6 6,676.8 6,706.2 6,704.3 6,694.8 6,864.0 6,729.1 6,961.0 7,027.2 7,081.6 7,127.2 23,763 24,109 24,745 25,118 25,447 25,635 25,785 25,805 26,387 25,853 26,759 27,144 27,404 27,645 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter of 2002, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $1.7 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $5.6 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1992 ................................ 1993 ................................ 1994 ................................ 1995 ................................ 1996 ................................ 1997 ................................ 1998 ................................ 1999 ................................ 2000 ................................ 2001 ................................ 2000: I ........................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2001: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2002: I .......................... II ......................... III p ...................... 200.6 205.0 216.0 210.8 235.8 238.1 232.1 234.5 241.7 246.5 233.3 239.6 235.4 258.5 234.1 243.6 240.3 268.1 232.8 226.9 225.2 171.4 178.2 181.3 188.0 199.3 207.7 196.0 187.5 193.7 202.8 191.5 200.9 200.7 181.6 196.8 209.1 208.3 197.1 197.9 194.2 194.3 Livestock and products 85.8 90.5 88.3 87.2 92.9 96.5 94.1 95.6 99.6 106.4 99.2 100.1 100.3 98.5 104.9 105.9 106.2 108.7 103.6 92.1 89.8 1 Cash marketing receipts, inventory changes and direct Government payments, plus other farm cash income and nonmoney income produced by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period. NOTE.—Data include Commodity Credit Corporation loan transactions and imputed rent of operator residences. Crops 85.7 87.7 93.0 100.8 106.3 111.2 101.9 91.9 94.1 96.4 92.3 100.8 100.4 83.1 91.9 103.2 102.2 88.4 94.3 102.1 104.5 Value of inventory changes 2 4.2 ¥4.2 8.3 ¥5.0 7.9 .6 ¥.6 ¥.3 .1 ¥3.2 .2 .1 .1 .1 ¥3.9 ¥3.9 ¥2.8 ¥2.1 ¥4.5 ¥4.3 ¥3.2 Direct Government payments 9.2 13.4 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 12.4 21.5 22.9 20.7 16.6 13.5 9.7 51.7 15.1 12.3 8.8 46.8 12.3 10.0 7.2 Production expenses 152.8 160.4 167.2 173.8 181.0 187.6 186.5 188.3 193.7 200.8 199.0 205.3 191.6 178.8 201.5 211.1 202.1 188.4 201.1 207.7 200.4 Net farm income 47.8 44.7 48.9 36.9 54.8 50.5 45.6 46.2 48.0 45.7 34.3 34.3 43.9 79.8 32.5 32.5 38.2 79.7 31.6 19.2 24.8 Quarterly data plotted for 1992 and 1993 in chart do not reflect revisions to annual data in table. Data for 2002 are forecasts. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 2002, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $10.6 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $9.5 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Transportation4 Wholesale Retail Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 1993 .............. 1994 .............. 1995 .............. 1996 .............. 1997 .............. 1998 .............. 1999 .............. 2000 .............. 2001 .............. 2002 p ............ 506.4 561.0 650.2 729.4 800.8 739.4 757.9 767.3 675.1 ............ 429.6 483.7 558.2 628.6 690.2 637.2 637.6 624.0 524.4 ............ 127.9 114.7 154.3 165.3 185.7 158.4 181.7 201.0 190.6 ............ 301.7 369.0 403.8 463.3 504.5 478.8 455.9 423.0 333.7 ............ 108.4 139.6 166.1 181.2 195.2 164.3 157.5 159.8 83.4 ................ 69.6 82.9 85.8 91.4 85.0 79.1 57.2 36.6 27.7 ................ 28.2 33.1 29.4 42.6 49.2 55.9 54.4 62.1 44.8 .............. 39.7 46.6 44.1 52.9 63.9 73.8 75.6 73.4 79.1 .............. 510.4 573.4 668.5 726.3 792.4 721.1 762.1 782.3 670.2 ............ 165.4 186.7 211.0 223.6 237.2 238.8 247.8 259.4 199.3 ............ 345.0 386.7 457.5 502.7 555.2 482.3 514.3 522.9 470.9 .............. 203.1 234.9 254.2 297.7 335.2 348.7 328.4 376.1 409.6 434.3 141.9 151.8 203.3 205.0 220.0 133.6 185.9 146.8 61.2 .............. ¥4.0 ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 8.4 18.3 ¥4.2 ¥15.0 5.0 ............ 1999: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2000: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2001: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2002: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV p ..... 760.5 750.5 739.6 781.0 774.3 784.2 772.3 738.6 696.9 714.0 663.2 626.3 641.3 652.2 653.4 ............ 647.1 635.0 624.0 644.5 642.7 642.7 626.9 583.6 560.8 553.6 521.4 461.6 509.3 537.1 537.3 ............ 175.1 170.2 183.2 198.4 201.7 193.1 204.5 204.9 208.2 191.6 162.7 200.1 218.2 218.5 216.1 ............ 471.9 464.8 440.9 446.1 441.0 449.7 422.4 378.8 352.6 362.0 358.7 261.5 291.1 318.6 321.2 ............ 159.1 161.0 155.8 154.0 167.6 176.1 160.7 134.6 92.3 99.2 91.1 50.9 68.9 91.9 100.5 ................ 63.9 53.3 53.1 58.6 43.6 35.7 34.4 32.8 36.6 34.3 33.3 6.5 15.0 17.1 13.2 ................ 57.4 53.7 50.0 56.4 57.3 66.7 67.1 57.4 45.2 41.0 45.9 46.9 41.2 44.8 44.5 .............. 79.4 79.8 71.0 72.3 77.7 74.1 74.0 67.9 75.7 77.8 82.6 80.5 81.4 86.0 82.5 .............. 744.4 752.9 753.4 797.6 796.9 800.5 780.6 751.1 707.0 720.2 654.3 599.1 639.4 657.9 668.5 ............ 243.1 246.0 246.3 255.7 270.8 267.3 257.4 241.9 217.3 213.1 196.2 170.6 202.4 213.7 214.7 ............ 501.3 506.9 507.1 542.0 526.1 533.3 523.2 509.2 489.7 507.1 458.1 428.5 437.0 444.3 453.8 .............. 332.0 323.7 324.3 333.5 351.1 369.7 386.1 397.6 402.9 406.5 411.4 417.7 424.2 430.8 437.7 444.3 169.2 183.2 182.8 208.5 174.9 163.6 137.1 111.6 86.8 100.7 46.7 10.8 12.8 13.5 16.1 .............. 16.0 ¥2.5 ¥13.8 ¥16.6 ¥22.6 ¥16.4 ¥8.3 ¥12.5 ¥10.1 ¥6.2 8.9 27.2 1.9 ¥5.7 ¥15.1 ............ 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. 2 Includes 8 4 Transportation and public utilities. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the fourth quarter of 2002, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1996) dollars rose $4.5 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $6.5 billion. There was an increase of $3.3 billion in inventories following an increase of $18.8 billion in the third quarter. [Billions of chained (1996) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Equipment and software Residential Structures Total Nonfarm 1993 ................................................................................. 1994 ................................................................................. 1995 ................................................................................. 1996 ................................................................................. 1997 ................................................................................. 1998 ................................................................................. 1999 ................................................................................. 2000 ................................................................................. 2001 ................................................................................. 2002 p ................................................................................ 977.9 1,107.0 1,140.6 1,242.7 1,393.3 1,558.0 1,660.5 1,762.9 1,574.6 1,582.8 958.4 1,045.9 1,109.2 1,212.7 1,328.6 1,480.0 1,595.2 1,691.9 1,627.4 1,576.1 683.6 744.6 817.5 899.4 1,009.3 1,135.9 1,228.4 1,324.2 1,255.1 1,182.8 198.9 200.5 210.1 225.0 245.4 262.2 258.6 275.5 270.9 226.5 487.1 544.9 607.6 674.4 764.2 875.4 975.9 1,056.0 988.2 970.4 276.0 302.7 291.7 313.3 319.7 345.1 368.3 372.4 373.5 387.6 20.0 66.8 30.4 30.0 63.8 76.7 62.8 65.0 ¥61.4 ¥.5 28.6 53.6 42.6 22.1 60.6 75.0 64.1 67.2 ¥63.2 ¥.2 1999: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 1,640.3 1,620.5 1,663.4 1,717.8 1,560.5 1,587.6 1,610.6 1,622.2 1,197.5 1,220.4 1,243.3 1,252.4 262.4 258.9 254.7 258.5 939.1 967.1 996.1 1,001.2 364.1 368.4 369.2 371.7 80.0 31.2 47.6 92.2 71.1 30.1 58.7 96.7 2000: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2001: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2002: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IVp ......................................................................... 1,727.8 1,798.1 1,770.3 1,755.2 1,661.8 1,583.5 1,562.7 1,490.3 1,554.0 1,583.9 1,598.0 1,595.3 1,673.6 1,700.9 1,701.7 1,691.3 1,682.1 1,633.5 1,615.7 1,578.4 1,576.4 1,572.6 1,571.6 1,583.6 1,297.1 1,329.1 1,340.7 1,329.9 1,311.4 1,261.0 1,241.7 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,183.2 267.0 272.3 280.2 282.7 280.4 274.4 276.3 252.7 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.9 1,038.0 1,065.3 1,067.7 1,053.1 1,036.1 989.9 966.4 960.3 953.7 961.4 977.2 989.3 379.1 376.2 367.2 367.2 374.5 374.0 374.3 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 393.6 45.3 91.5 63.1 59.9 ¥26.9 ¥58.3 ¥61.8 ¥98.4 ¥28.9 4.9 18.8 3.3 58.9 88.6 64.6 56.8 ¥32.6 ¥54.9 ¥63.6 ¥101.5 ¥35.1 4.2 20.8 9.4 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any inter- mediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (1996) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Residential Structures Period 1993 ............................... 1994 ............................... 1995 ............................... 1996 ............................... 1997 ............................... 1998 ............................... 1999 ............................... 2000 ............................... 2001 ............................... 2002 p .............................. 1999: I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV ........................ 2000: I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV ........................ 2001: I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV ........................ 2002: I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV p ...................... Total nonresidential 683.6 744.6 817.5 899.4 1,009.3 1,135.9 1,228.4 1,324.2 1,255.1 1,182.8 1,197.5 1,220.4 1,243.3 1,252.4 1,297.1 1,329.1 1,340.7 1,329.9 1,311.4 1,261.0 1,241.7 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,183.2 Total 1 198.9 200.5 210.1 225.0 245.4 262.2 258.6 275.5 270.9 226.5 262.4 258.9 254.7 258.5 267.0 272.3 280.2 282.7 280.4 274.4 276.3 252.7 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.9 Structures Equipment and software Information processing equipment and software Nonresidential buildings, including farm Utilities 131.7 137.2 147.6 161.7 177.0 188.3 185.5 192.3 178.7 145.3 192.1 186.0 182.3 181.7 188.4 192.4 194.5 193.9 193.8 183.2 174.2 163.5 157.1 148.2 139.1 137.0 38.4 36.1 36.8 36.0 35.3 42.7 45.7 50.4 50.3 47.5 44.1 44.3 46.2 48.3 48.3 49.3 51.1 52.9 50.6 51.5 49.7 49.3 50.8 48.4 45.6 45.4 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells Total 2 20.5 19.8 18.2 21.1 26.2 25.1 21.6 27.0 34.0 29.3 20.4 21.9 20.8 23.1 24.5 25.0 28.6 30.1 30.9 34.6 35.9 34.8 30.2 30.3 29.9 26.7 487.1 544.9 607.6 674.4 764.2 875.4 975.9 1,056.0 988.2 970.4 939.1 967.1 996.1 1,001.2 1,038.0 1,065.3 1,067.7 1,053.1 1,036.1 989.9 966.4 960.3 953.7 961.4 977.2 989.3 1 Includes other structures, not shown separately. other items, not shown separately. equipment, not shown separately. 4 Includes multifamily and other structures, not shown separately. Total Computers and peripheral equipment 183.4 206.6 242.8 287.3 349.8 429.3 508.1 583.3 548.5 563.4 477.3 506.8 522.2 526.1 561.3 585.5 591.9 594.3 578.9 549.8 533.4 531.8 540.4 557.0 575.2 580.8 26.4 32.6 49.2 70.9 102.9 147.7 207.4 246.4 239.9 284.1 186.1 209.2 218.8 215.3 226.7 249.2 255.9 253.9 253.0 239.0 224.5 243.3 262.1 271.6 297.6 304.9 Software Other Industrial equipment 66.8 74.3 82.0 95.1 119.0 147.1 169.3 184.4 182.0 186.1 160.2 167.8 172.5 176.8 181.8 184.3 185.8 185.6 185.5 181.7 180.5 180.6 179.0 184.3 189.4 191.9 96.4 104.9 113.1 121.3 129.8 143.5 157.5 187.4 163.9 157.9 151.1 157.1 160.7 161.2 180.2 188.2 189.1 192.2 180.2 165.7 158.6 151.2 154.1 158.5 159.7 159.2 109.6 119.6 131.3 136.4 140.0 145.6 147.5 160.8 153.8 146.6 142.5 146.9 150.1 150.5 156.0 159.3 164.5 163.4 164.8 156.4 149.2 144.7 148.3 145.6 147.9 144.8 Transportation equipment Total residential 3 103.4 120.4 128.2 138.9 150.5 168.2 193.2 186.6 163.6 146.6 188.1 188.6 199.1 196.8 193.9 192.5 186.9 173.0 167.6 161.6 160.0 165.4 151.5 143.4 141.7 149.8 276.0 302.7 291.7 313.3 319.7 345.1 368.3 372.4 373.5 387.6 364.1 368.4 369.2 371.7 379.1 376.2 367.2 367.2 374.5 374.0 374.3 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 393.6 Total 4 Single family 269.4 295.8 284.4 305.6 311.8 336.8 359.4 363.0 364.0 377.9 355.4 359.5 360.1 362.5 369.7 366.8 357.8 357.8 365.1 364.6 365.0 361.5 373.9 376.4 377.4 383.8 148.0 163.2 147.7 159.1 158.6 175.9 189.0 191.0 192.6 199.9 188.4 187.3 187.4 192.8 198.0 193.8 186.5 185.8 192.0 193.1 194.1 191.3 197.2 198.4 199.8 204.4 NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Includes 3 Includes BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Total by industry Forestry, fishing Con- Manuand Min- Utili- strucfacagriing ties turtion culing tural services ProFor Real fesscomTransesional, Health panies portaFiscien- care withWhole- Retail tion Infor- nance tate and tific, and Other out sale and maand rental 1 trade and social emtrade waretion insur- and assisployhousance leas- technical tance ees ing ing services For companies with employees 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 .............................. ............................. .............................. ............................. .............................. 807.1 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 871.8 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 970.9 896.5 0.9 40.4 36.0 26.9 203.6 29.2 57.3 51.3 96.5 118.2 85.2 22.3 47.1 81.7 74.4 1,047.0 974.6 1.7 30.6 42.8 23.1 196.4 32.4 64.1 57.3 122.8 130.1 100.6 29.5 51.3 91.8 72.3 1,171.6 1,100.5 1.5 42.5 61.3 24.0 214.7 35.0 69.6 60.0 164.2 133.7 98.3 33.5 53.2 109.0 71.2 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. 10 NOTE.—Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): 1997. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In December, employment fell by 273,000, and unemployment rose by 82,000. [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period 1993 .................................. 1994 3 ................................ 1995 .................................. 1996 .................................. 1997 4 ................................ 1998 4 ................................ 1999 4 ................................ 2000 4 ................................ 2001 .................................. 2002 .................................. 2001: Dec ......................... 2002: Jan ......................... Feb ......................... Mar ........................ Apr ......................... May ........................ June ....................... July ........................ Aug ........................ Sept ........................ Oct ......................... Nov ........................ Dec ......................... Civilian noninstitutional population NSA 194,838 196,814 198,584 200,591 203,133 205,220 207,753 209,699 211,864 213,977 212,927 213,089 213,206 213,334 213,492 213,658 213,842 214,023 214,225 214,429 214,643 214,819 214,968 Civilian labor force 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 140,863 141,815 142,535 142,314 141,390 142,211 142,005 142,570 142,769 142,476 142,390 142,616 143,277 143,123 142,733 142,542 Nonagricultural Total 120,259 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 133,488 135,208 135,073 134,269 134,055 133,468 134,319 133,894 133,976 134,417 134,053 134,045 134,474 135,185 134,914 134,225 133,952 Agricultural 3,115 3,409 3,440 3,443 3,399 3,378 3,281 3,305 3,144 3,248 3,246 3,273 3,246 3,126 3,154 3,097 3,110 3,282 3,188 3,298 3,525 3,357 3,311 Part time for economic reasons 1 Total 117,144 119,651 121,460 123,264 126,159 128,085 130,207 131,903 131,929 131,020 130,809 130,195 131,073 130,768 130,823 131,320 130,942 130,763 131,286 131,887 131,389 130,867 130,640 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. 4 Not Percent 2 Unemployment 6,230 4,414 4,279 4,123 3,879 3,501 3,189 3,045 3,529 3,959 4,119 3,781 3,998 3,848 4,009 3,818 3,758 3,949 4,060 4,068 4,148 4,032 3,928 Total 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,655 6,742 8,266 8,259 7,922 7,891 8,111 8,594 8,351 8,424 8,345 8,142 8,092 8,209 8,508 8,590 15 weeks and over 3,094 2,860 2,363 2,316 2,062 1,637 1,480 1,309 1,746 2,861 2,410 2,546 2,561 2,688 2,854 2,952 3,103 2,883 2,783 2,900 2,980 3,022 3,225 Not in labor force 65,638 65,758 66,280 66,647 66,837 67,547 68,385 68,836 70,050 71,442 70,613 71,699 70,995 71,329 70,922 70,889 71,366 71,633 71,609 71,152 71,519 72,087 72,425 Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 66.3 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.6 66.8 66.4 66.7 66.6 66.8 66.8 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.8 66.7 66.4 66.3 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.3 64.5 63.8 62.7 63.0 62.6 63.0 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.7 62.6 62.8 63.0 62.9 62.5 62.3 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.0 strictly comparable with earlier data. NOTE.—See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In December, the unemployment rate was unchanged from November at 6.0 percent. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By sex and age Period 1993 ......................... 1994 2 ....................... 1995 ......................... 1996 ......................... 1997 ......................... 1998 ......................... 1999 ......................... 2000 ......................... 2001 ......................... 2002 ......................... 2001: Dec ............... 2002: Jan ............... Feb ............... Mar ............... Apr ............... May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug ............... Sept .............. Oct ................ Nov ............... Dec ............... 1 Revised 2 Data 12 All civilian workers 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.0 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 6.4 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.3 By race Both sexes 16–19 years White 19.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.0 14.6 13.9 13.1 14.7 16.5 16.2 16.1 15.6 16.4 16.8 16.9 17.6 17.7 17.2 15.7 14.6 16.8 16.1 definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994. beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 Black and other 11.7 10.5 9.6 9.3 8.8 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.7 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.8 9.5 10.0 9.1 9.5 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.8 9.8 10.1 By selected groups Black 13.0 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 8.0 7.6 8.7 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.6 10.7 11.2 10.2 10.7 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.8 11.0 11.5 Experienced wage and salary workers 6.6 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.6 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.9 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Full-time workers 1 Part-time workers 1 9.7 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.3 8.6 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.3 7.2 8.0 8.3 8.7 6.9 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 6.2 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.1 7.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.4 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In December, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5–14 weeks fell; the percentages for 15–26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 18.5 weeks and the median duration rose to 9.6 weeks. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1993 ........................................ 1994 3 ...................................... 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 ........................................ 1999 ........................................ 2000 ........................................ 2001 ........................................ 2002 ........................................ 2001: Dec ............................... 2002: Jan ............................... Feb .............................. Mar .............................. Apr ............................... May .............................. June ............................. July ............................. Aug .............................. Sept ............................. Oct ............................... Nov .............................. Dec ............................... 1 Beginning 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,655 6,742 8,266 8,259 7,922 7,891 8,111 8,594 8,351 8,424 8,345 8,142 8,092 8,209 8,508 8,590 36.5 34.1 36.5 36.4 37.7 42.2 43.7 45.0 42.0 34.6 37.1 36.7 35.8 37.6 33.0 34.4 31.7 35.1 35.6 33.4 33.2 34.5 32.7 28.9 30.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.9 32.1 30.8 33.4 31.9 31.8 29.5 33.3 30.3 32.3 29.9 30.0 30.9 30.3 29.6 29.4 14.5 15.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 12.3 12.8 11.8 14.1 16.3 15.9 17.5 17.5 16.6 16.1 15.7 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.2 15.3 16.1 20.1 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8 14.1 12.3 11.4 11.8 18.3 13.7 13.9 14.9 16.3 17.6 19.6 19.4 18.6 18.2 19.5 20.3 20.6 21.8 January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 18.0 18.8 16.6 16.7 15.8 14.5 13.4 12.6 13.2 16.6 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.6 17.1 17.3 16.4 16.2 17.8 17.5 17.7 18.5 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.8 9.1 8.2 8.8 8.1 8.1 8.9 9.8 11.7 8.6 8.4 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.6 54.2 47.7 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.5 44.6 44.1 50.8 54.7 54.4 55.1 54.4 52.3 53.2 54.5 54.8 54.9 55.1 56.0 56.5 55.1 54.6 10.9 9.9 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 13.3 13.7 12.3 10.4 11.0 11.1 11.0 10.6 12.0 10.7 10.0 9.8 10.0 9.6 10.0 9.7 10.2 24.6 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.3 34.1 34.6 30.1 28.5 28.6 27.7 28.5 30.3 28.8 28.9 28.2 28.5 27.4 27.9 27.9 28.2 29.2 10.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.0 7.6 6.7 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.8 6.1 5.9 7.0 6.8 7.5 6.5 5.6 7.0 6.1 2,751 2,670 2,572 2,595 2,323 2,222 2,188 2,110 r 2,974 3,585 3,540 3,475 3,522 3,619 3,757 3,797 3,672 3,513 3,532 3,627 3,597 3,483 3,438 341 340 357 356 323 321 298 301 404 407 410 401 391 422 435 412 393 386 399 423 401 378 418 2,845 2,739 2,633 2,650 2,366 2,257 2,219 2,141 r 3,007 3,618 3,940 4,313 4,300 4,138 3,947 3,250 3,539 3,524 3,123 3,267 2,935 r3,082 3,898 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell by 101,000 in December. [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 .................. 1996 .................. 1997 .................. 1998 .................. 1999 .................. 2000 .................. 2001 .................. 2002p ................. 2001: Dec ........ 2002: Jan ........ Feb ........ Mar ........ Apr ........ May ....... June ...... July ....... Aug ........ Sept ....... Oct r ....... Nov r ....... Dec p ....... Total nonagricultural employment 110,713 114,163 117,191 119,608 122,690 125,865 128,916 131,720 131,922 130,793 130,890 130,871 130,706 130,701 130,680 130,702 130,736 130,790 130,913 130,829 130,898 130,810 130,709 Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 23,352 23,908 24,265 24,493 24,962 25,414 25,507 25,669 24,944 23,836 24,261 24,130 24,041 23,975 23,905 23,870 23,861 23,812 23,801 23,748 23,688 23,625 23,566 Construction 4,668 4,986 5,160 5,418 5,691 6,020 6,415 6,653 6,685 6,555 6,634 6,615 6,597 6,593 6,541 6,541 6,549 6,519 6,556 6,556 6,544 6,540 6,543 Total 18,075 18,321 18,524 18,495 18,675 18,805 18,552 18,473 17,695 16,725 17,062 16,947 16,880 16,822 16,800 16,771 16,757 16,742 16,690 16,640 16,592 16,535 16,470 Durable goods Nondurable goods 10,221 10,448 10,683 10,789 11,010 11,205 11,111 11,141 10,636 9,907 10,166 10,070 10,023 9,976 9,976 9,963 9,944 9,922 9,889 9,832 9,800 9,756 9,710 7,854 7,873 7,841 7,706 7,665 7,600 7,441 7,332 7,059 6,818 6,896 6,877 6,857 6,846 6,824 6,808 6,813 6,820 6,801 6,808 6,792 6,779 6,760 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample 14 Total 87,361 90,256 92,925 95,115 97,727 100,451 103,409 106,051 106,978 106,957 106,629 106,741 106,665 106,726 106,775 106,832 106,875 106,978 107,112 107,081 107,210 107,185 107,143 Transportation and public utilities 5,811 5,984 6,132 6,253 6,408 6,611 6,834 7,031 7,065 6,773 6,856 6,850 6,837 6,814 6,799 6,793 6,790 6,780 6,765 6,725 6,727 6,718 6,691 Wholesale trade 5,981 6,162 6,378 6,482 6,648 6,800 6,911 6,947 6,776 6,671 6,702 6,702 6,689 6,681 6,678 6,681 6,681 6,679 6,671 6,663 6,657 6,643 6,637 Retail trade 19,773 20,507 21,187 21,597 21,966 22,295 22,848 23,337 23,522 23,306 23,318 23,396 23,331 23,332 23,345 23,327 23,308 23,339 23,295 23,291 23,289 23,249 23,145 Finance, insurance, Services and real estate 6,757 6,896 6,806 6,911 7,109 7,389 7,555 7,578 7,712 7,761 7,748 7,748 7,745 7,740 7,743 7,732 7,733 7,737 7,745 7,773 7,803 7,810 7,818 30,197 31,579 33,117 34,454 36,040 37,533 39,055 40,457 40,970 41,184 40,883 40,908 40,901 40,963 41,025 41,093 41,152 41,215 41,347 41,336 41,385 41,400 41,473 Government Total 18,841 19,128 19,305 19,419 19,557 19,823 20,206 20,702 20,933 21,262 21,122 21,137 21,162 21,196 21,185 21,206 21,211 21,228 21,289 21,293 21,349 21,365 21,379 Federal 2,915 2,870 2,822 2,757 2,699 2,686 2,669 2,777 2,616 2,619 2,615 2,609 2,608 2,611 2,610 2,600 2,601 2,607 2,611 2,621 2,649 2,658 2,659 of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period 1993 ...................... 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ..................... 1997 ..................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ..................... 2001 ...................... 2002 p .................... 2001: Dec ........... 2002: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ........... May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug ........... Sept .......... Oct r ........... Nov r .......... Dec p .......... Total private nonagricultural 1 34.5 34.7 34.5 34.4 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.2 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.1 Total 41.4 42.0 41.6 41.6 42.0 41.7 41.7 41.6 40.7 40.9 40.6 40.6 40.7 41.0 40.9 40.9 41.1 40.7 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.6 40.9 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime 4.1 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.2 Current dollars $10.83 11.12 11.43 11.82 12.28 12.78 13.24 13.76 14.31 14.77 14.55 14.58 14.61 14.64 14.66 14.69 14.74 14.76 14.83 14.85 14.90 14.93 14.98 1982 dollars 2 $7.39 7.40 7.39 7.43 7.55 7.75 7.86 7.89 7.99 8.14 8.14 8.14 8.13 8.12 8.09 8.11 8.13 8.13 8.14 8.14 8.15 8.15 8.18 Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing $11.74 12.07 12.37 12.77 13.17 13.49 13.90 14.37 14.83 15.30 15.08 15.13 15.17 15.19 15.19 15.27 15.31 15.28 15.34 15.35 15.44 15.44 15.49 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $373.64 385.86 394.34 406.61 424.89 442.19 456.78 474.72 489.40 503.66 496.16 497.18 499.66 500.69 501.37 502.40 505.58 501.84 505.70 507.87 509.58 510.61 510.82 $254.87 256.73 255.07 255.73 261.31 268.32 271.25 272.36 273.26 277.50 277.49 277.44 278.21 277.85 276.69 277.42 278.86 276.34 277.70 278.28 278.61 278.87 278.83 $486.04 506.94 514.59 531.23 553.14 562.53 579.63 597.79 603.58 625.77 612.25 614.28 617.42 622.79 621.27 624.54 629.24 621.90 627.41 626.28 628.41 626.86 633.54 $553.63 573.00 587.00 603.33 625.56 646.13 672.13 702.68 720.76 732.16 727.26 736.68 735.99 732.73 734.37 726.40 733.59 720.83 729.54 736.42 729.60 726.18 735.74 $209.95 216.46 221.47 230.11 240.74 253.46 263.61 273.39 282.35 291.16 285.82 286.11 287.68 289.55 289.13 290.71 292.75 289.44 291.60 292.90 294.49 295.80 297.26 Current dollars 1982 dollars ¥0.0 .7 ¥.6 .3 2.2 2.7 1.1 .4 .3 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.4 2.7 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.1 .5 2.8 3.3 2.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.3 3.9 3.1 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .................................................................. .................................................................. ................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. 119.8 123.5 126.7 130.6 135.1 139.8 144.6 150.9 157.2 162.3 116.4 119.7 123.1 127.3 132.3 137.4 142.2 147.7 153.3 157.5 128.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.8 145.2 150.2 158.6 166.7 174.6 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Seasonally adjusted 1999: Mar ................................................................. June ................................................................ Sept ................................................................. Dec .................................................................. 2000: Mar ................................................................. June ................................................................ Sept ................................................................. Dec .................................................................. 2001: Mar ................................................................. June ................................................................ Sept ................................................................. Dec .................................................................. 2002: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 1 Employer 140.2 141.8 143.1 144.6 146.6 148.3 149.8 151.1 152.8 154.3 155.7 157.3 158.7 160.4 161.4 162.5 138.1 139.7 140.9 142.3 143.9 145.4 146.7 147.9 149.4 150.9 152.0 153.4 154.8 156.3 156.9 157.6 costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 145.2 146.7 148.2 150.2 153.1 155.1 157.0 158.8 160.8 162.5 164.7 166.8 168.6 170.9 172.6 174.7 0.3 1.1 .9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 .9 1.1 1.0 .9 1.0 .9 1.1 .6 .7 3.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 2.7 5.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 Not seasonally adjusted 0.4 1.2 .9 1.0 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 1.0 1.0 .7 .9 .9 1.0 .4 .4 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.2 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.4 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ 100.0 100.5 101.9 102.6 105.4 107.8 110.6 113.5 116.9 118.2 100.0 100.5 101.8 102.8 105.4 107.5 110.3 112.9 116.2 117.5 100.0 103.1 108.1 111.5 116.4 122.5 128.5 134.5 140.0 139.8 100.0 103.3 108.2 111.8 116.7 122.7 128.8 134.8 140.2 140.1 100.0 102.6 106.2 108.7 110.4 113.6 116.2 118.5 119.7 118.2 100.0 102.9 106.2 108.8 110.7 114.1 116.8 119.4 120.6 119.2 100.0 102.5 104.5 106.7 110.1 113.5 119.7 125.2 133.8 137.7 100.0 102.2 104.3 106.6 109.8 113.1 119.1 124.3 133.0 136.6 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.6 100.1 101.0 105.0 107.6 111.2 111.4 100.0 99.7 99.7 99.4 99.8 100.6 104.5 106.8 110.6 110.5 100.0 101.9 102.6 104.1 104.5 105.3 108.2 110.3 114.4 116.5 100.0 101.7 102.5 103.7 104.2 105.2 108.0 110.1 114.4 116.3 100.0 102.2 104.0 106.0 107.7 109.7 110.6 111.6 113.5 115.8 100.0 102.2 104.1 106.1 107.6 109.8 110.8 112.1 114.1 116.3 1999: I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. 2000: I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. 2001: I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. 2002: I ................... II ................. III * ............. 112.7 112.5 113.6 115.2 115.3 117.2 117.3 117.9 117.5 117.4 117.9 120.1 122.5 123.1 124.7 112.1 111.9 112.9 114.7 114.7 116.4 116.6 117.1 116.7 116.6 117.2 119.3 121.8 122.3 123.8 132.4 133.0 134.9 137.7 138.4 140.3 140.4 140.7 140.4 139.4 139.1 140.3 142.3 142.5 144.3 132.7 133.3 135.3 138.0 138.7 140.5 140.6 141.0 140.7 139.7 139.4 140.4 142.5 142.9 144.7 117.4 118.2 118.8 119.5 120.1 119.7 119.7 119.4 119.5 118.7 117.9 116.8 116.1 115.8 115.7 118.4 119.1 119.8 120.4 120.9 120.7 120.6 120.4 120.6 119.8 118.9 117.7 117.0 116.8 116.8 124.1 124.3 125.4 127.0 131.4 132.4 135.0 136.3 137.3 137.5 137.8 138.3 139.3 140.8 142.6 123.2 123.4 124.5 126.3 130.8 131.5 134.3 135.3 136.3 136.3 136.7 137.2 138.2 139.5 141.2 107.7 107.1 107.3 107.8 110.5 110.5 111.7 111.9 111.8 111.0 111.1 111.6 112.0 112.2 113.2 106.9 106.3 106.6 107.2 110.0 109.8 111.1 111.2 110.9 110.1 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.2 112.0 110.2 110.5 110.4 110.2 114.0 113.0 115.1 115.6 116.9 117.1 116.8 115.1 113.7 114.4 114.3 109.9 110.3 110.3 110.1 114.0 113.0 115.2 115.6 116.8 116.9 116.6 115.0 113.4 114.0 114.0 111.2 111.5 111.8 112.1 112.8 113.4 113.7 114.3 115.2 115.8 116.4 115.9 116.0 116.2 116.3 111.5 111.9 112.3 112.6 113.4 113.9 114.3 114.8 115.7 116.3 116.8 116.5 116.4 116.8 116.9 1.6 1.7 .8 1.2 .5 .9 2.7 2.0 3.9 1.6 2.0 5.1 2.7 ¥.4 4.8 1.3 .0 ¥.5 14.9 ¥3.6 8.0 1.4 4.3 .3 ¥1.1 ¥5.4 ¥5.3 2.2 ¥.2 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 .8 1.0 1.7 2.0 .5 .5 .9 .5 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 2.4 2.2 1.1 1.9 3.4 2.2 1.8 ¥1.6 .3 .7 .4 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.4 2.1 .9 1.2 1.8 1.9 .6 .4 1.2 .5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.6 3.3 2.0 1.7 ¥1.0 ¥.2 1.4 .1 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. I ................... II .................. III ................ IV ................. I ................... II ................. III * ............. 1 Output 3.9 .5 1.3 .7 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.6 3.0 1.1 5.1 .1 2.3 4.4 3.1 ¥.6 3.8 5.8 .3 6.7 .4 2.1 ¥1.5 ¥.2 1.8 7.6 8.3 1.8 5.4 3.7 .5 1.3 .9 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.9 1.1 4.9 .6 1.9 4.3 2.4 ¥.8 3.7 6.3 .2 6.0 .6 1.7 ¥1.5 ¥.1 2.1 7.3 8.6 1.7 5.1 3.7 3.1 4.9 3.1 4.4 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.1 ¥.2 7.5 1.9 4.4 8.2 3.4 2.1 5.9 8.4 2.2 5.4 .4 .9 ¥1.0 ¥2.8 ¥.9 3.5 5.9 .6 5.2 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.4 4.3 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.0 ¥.1 7.8 2.1 4.3 8.3 3.3 1.9 6.0 8.3 1.9 5.4 .2 1.1 ¥.9 ¥2.7 ¥.8 2.9 6.2 .9 5.1 ¥0.2 2.6 3.5 2.4 1.6 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.0 ¥1.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 3.7 .2 2.7 2.0 2.4 1.9 ¥1.2 .0 ¥1.2 .4 ¥2.6 ¥2.6 ¥3.9 ¥2.2 ¥1.2 ¥.2 ¥0.2 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.0 ¥1.2 2.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 .9 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.7 ¥.6 ¥.4 ¥.6 .5 ¥2.6 ¥2.9 ¥4.1 ¥2.2 ¥.7 .0 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI– U) for recent quarters. The trend from 1978–2001 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI–U–RS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 5.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 3.2 3.1 5.5 4.6 6.8 2.9 7.3 5.4 4.7 4.0 8.2 .5 3.7 5.1 14.7 3.0 8.3 3.7 3.1 .5 .9 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.3 5.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 3.1 3.0 5.4 4.4 7.0 2.7 7.0 5.8 4.6 3.8 7.3 .6 3.7 5.8 15.2 2.2 8.7 3.1 2.8 .1 1.0 1.5 2.9 3.9 4.9 2.7 .0 ¥.1 ¥.3 .5 .9 4.0 2.4 3.4 .2 6.5 4.2 3.1 2.2 6.5 ¥2.3 .8 1.7 10.3 .0 4.6 .7 ¥.6 ¥2.6 .2 1.7 1.6 .8 3.4 2.7 ¥.3 .0 ¥.3 .4 .8 3.9 2.2 3.5 ¥.1 6.2 4.6 3.0 2.0 5.5 ¥2.2 .8 2.5 10.7 ¥.7 4.9 .2 ¥.9 ¥2.9 .3 1.8 1.4 .5 3.0 1.4 1.9 .7 1.4 .4 .8 2.8 1.9 3.7 1.8 2.1 5.3 2.3 ¥.4 5.0 1.1 ¥.1 ¥.7 14.4 ¥3.5 7.8 1.6 4.7 .7 ¥.9 ¥5.8 ¥4.9 2.4 ¥.1 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released November 26, 2002. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in December. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Percent Period Index, 1997=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1997=100 change 2 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing Total 1 Durable Nondurable Other (nonNAICS) 1 Mining Utilities Total industry 1993 ...................... 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 p .................... 80.9 85.2 89.3 93.2 100.0 105.6 110.1 115.3 111.2 110.5 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 3.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 7.3 5.6 4.3 4.7 ¥3.5 ¥.6 78.9 83.7 88.1 92.2 100.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 112.6 111.5 69.5 75.6 82.1 89.1 100.0 110.3 119.3 129.4 122.9 121.2 91.3 94.5 96.2 96.5 100.0 101.4 102.2 102.9 99.8 99.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 92.5 100.0 106.5 109.9 112.4 109.1 105.7 94.4 96.6 96.4 98.1 100.0 98.2 94.0 96.0 96.6 93.7 91.5 92.8 96.4 99.7 100.0 101.5 103.9 106.4 105.6 110.0 2001: Dec ............ 108.3 ¥0.5 ¥5.9 109.6 118.9 98.0 107.1 95.1 2002: Jan ............ Feb ............ Mar ............ Apr ............ May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug ............ Sept r .......... Oct r ........... Nov r ........... Dec p ........... 109.0 109.2 109.6 110.1 110.4 110.8 111.6 111.3 111.2 110.7 110.8 110.6 .6 .2 .4 .4 .3 .3 .7 ¥.2 ¥.1 ¥.5 .1 ¥.2 ¥4.6 ¥3.9 ¥3.0 ¥2.2 ¥1.3 ¥.3 .5 .6 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.1 110.3 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.3 112.4 112.1 111.6 111.7 111.5 119.6 119.8 119.8 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.2 122.7 122.0 121.6 122.3 121.6 98.8 99.0 99.5 99.5 99.7 99.9 100.4 100.0 100.0 99.4 99.1 99.2 105.8 104.9 105.0 104.1 104.2 105.5 105.0 105.8 107.1 106.7 106.0 106.9 94.4 94.2 93.6 93.4 93.4 93.5 94.4 93.9 92.2 92.4 93.0 94.6 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Total manufacturing 81.1 83.3 83.6 82.5 83.7 82.9 82.4 82.7 77.3 75.6 80.0 82.4 82.8 81.2 82.7 81.9 81.4 81.4 75.6 73.8 102.2 74.6 73.0 103.7 105.2 108.0 110.6 110.1 110.1 113.7 110.4 113.3 111.3 111.3 110.0 75.0 75.1 75.3 75.6 75.7 75.9 76.4 76.1 76.0 75.6 75.6 75.4 73.3 73.4 73.5 73.6 73.9 74.1 74.3 74.3 74.1 73.8 73.8 73.6 Note.—Data based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Equipment Durable goods Business equipment Period Total Total Nondurable goods Materials Nonindustrial supplies Total 1 Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total 1 Energy 1993 ............................................................ 1994 ............................................................ 1995 ............................................................ 1996 ............................................................ 1997 ............................................................ 1998 ............................................................ 1999 ............................................................ 2000 ............................................................ 2001 ............................................................ 2002 p .......................................................... 83.2 86.9 90.5 93.9 100.0 105.6 108.2 112.1 109.0 107.2 87.3 91.5 94.4 96.4 100.0 103.6 105.4 107.8 106.5 107.6 75.3 84.5 89.2 93.0 100.0 107.2 114.6 119.0 112.2 117.3 91.8 94.1 96.3 97.7 100.0 102.3 102.2 103.9 104.3 104.2 75.8 78.3 83.2 89.1 100.0 109.7 113.8 120.8 113.8 105.3 70.1 73.7 79.6 87.1 100.0 111.1 116.9 126.5 117.3 107.4 106.2 102.3 101.4 99.6 100.0 104.2 103.4 99.3 100.1 101.3 79.4 84.0 88.1 92.8 100.0 106.7 112.2 118.8 115.3 114.7 83.4 89.2 91.5 95.6 100.0 105.0 107.3 110.2 105.5 104.0 77.1 81.0 86.1 91.1 100.0 107.8 115.5 124.7 121.9 122.0 79.2 84.0 88.7 92.6 100.0 105.2 111.2 117.0 111.8 112.3 94.7 95.6 97.4 99.4 100.0 99.2 98.9 99.3 97.5 98.6 2001: Dec .................................................. 106.3 105.7 114.0 102.7 106.5 108.6 100.3 112.3 102.5 119.0 108.8 96.2 2002: Jan .................................................. Feb ................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June ................................................ July ................................................. Aug .................................................. Sept r ................................................ Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec p ................................................ 106.6 106.8 107.2 107.2 107.1 107.5 107.9 107.6 107.4 106.7 107.1 106.6 106.2 106.7 107.4 107.5 107.3 107.8 108.5 107.8 107.9 107.1 107.7 107.1 114.2 115.3 115.7 116.5 117.2 118.6 120.0 119.3 118.7 116.9 120.7 118.1 103.3 103.6 104.4 104.4 103.9 104.1 104.6 103.8 104.2 103.7 103.4 103.3 106.5 105.8 105.4 105.3 105.6 105.7 105.2 106.0 105.0 104.7 104.3 104.3 108.8 108.1 107.8 107.7 108.0 108.0 107.3 108.1 106.9 106.2 106.0 105.5 99.6 99.7 99.8 99.9 100.6 101.2 101.2 101.9 102.0 102.6 102.1 103.3 112.4 112.8 113.3 113.9 114.6 114.8 115.5 115.4 115.8 115.4 114.9 114.7 102.6 103.1 104.0 104.0 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.8 104.5 104.2 103.5 102.9 119.2 119.4 119.7 120.7 121.5 121.8 123.2 122.6 123.6 123.2 122.8 122.9 110.0 110.2 110.7 111.6 112.2 112.6 113.8 113.6 113.4 112.9 113.0 113.2 97.1 97.1 97.9 98.6 98.5 98.6 101.0 99.3 99.1 98.2 98.6 99.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metal Period Total Iron and steel products Nondurable manufactures Computer and electronic products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Selected hightechnology 1 Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Chemical Food 1993 ............................................................ 1994 ............................................................ 1995 ............................................................ 1996 ............................................................ 1997 ............................................................ 1998 ............................................................ 1999 ............................................................ 2000 ............................................................ 2001 ............................................................ 2002 p .......................................................... 86.2 92.6 93.7 95.9 100.0 102.3 101.7 98.8 88.2 86.0 86.5 93.3 94.8 97.1 100.0 100.4 100.0 100.3 86.7 89.3 79.9 87.0 92.2 95.6 100.0 103.0 103.8 108.2 100.5 99.1 78.9 86.3 92.3 95.3 100.0 101.9 99.6 106.6 95.1 88.0 37.5 44.4 57.9 74.1 100.0 128.2 166.4 221.1 223.7 220.2 26.0 33.5 47.7 67.1 100.0 138.9 197.2 281.4 290.4 291.1 85.8 89.8 90.0 91.7 100.0 108.7 114.4 110.5 104.1 106.1 77.7 89.3 92.0 92.7 100.0 105.1 116.4 116.3 107.6 117.2 101.7 103.9 103.9 101.1 100.0 94.4 90.6 87.2 78.1 72.3 94.8 95.9 97.3 98.0 100.0 100.9 101.9 102.5 98.0 98.0 89.0 91.3 92.7 94.6 100.0 101.3 103.8 105.9 105.3 105.4 96.3 96.8 99.2 97.3 100.0 104.2 105.1 106.3 105.0 105.7 2001: Dec .................................................. 78.2 70.9 97.6 85.9 215.8 280.8 105.0 112.0 73.2 95.6 103.7 105.2 2002: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June ................................................ July ................................................. Aug .................................................. Sept r ................................................ Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec p ................................................ 84.3 85.3 85.1 84.6 85.9 86.2 85.0 87.6 85.0 87.9 87.4 88.7 85.0 86.9 85.5 85.1 90.0 89.0 88.1 93.0 88.8 94.5 92.6 95.5 97.7 98.2 98.2 98.4 99.7 99.3 99.7 99.3 99.4 100.0 99.3 98.9 87.2 87.3 88.0 88.3 88.5 88.9 88.4 89.4 88.2 86.8 86.9 87.3 216.3 215.5 216.9 217.9 220.0 220.8 221.5 223.0 223.2 223.3 223.3 224.3 281.4 281.3 284.0 286.9 290.8 293.1 293.6 296.8 296.3 297.7 298.2 299.8 104.4 104.9 104.3 105.5 105.2 106.7 108.4 108.5 107.7 106.1 109.1 105.6 111.8 113.4 113.3 115.9 115.8 118.6 122.1 122.0 121.1 118.3 123.4 117.6 72.7 72.3 74.0 72.4 72.9 72.7 72.9 71.4 72.2 70.2 71.0 70.2 97.8 96.9 95.2 95.5 96.2 95.5 98.4 98.6 99.9 100.1 99.7 100.0 104.9 104.6 105.2 105.1 105.0 105.7 106.9 106.2 106.1 105.1 104.8 105.3 105.2 105.7 106.0 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.3 105.8 106.0 105.1 105.3 1 Computers and office equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total 1 Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal and State and local Total value index (1996=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 p .................................... 491.0 539.2 557.8 615.9 653.4 705.7 765.9 820.3 842.5 846.2 375.1 419.0 427.9 476.6 502.7 551.4 596.3 641.8 650.0 641.8 225.1 258.6 247.4 281.1 289.0 314.6 350.6 374.5 388.7 414.8 150.9 176.4 171.4 191.1 198.1 224.0 251.3 265.0 279.8 297.0 81.5 93.3 110.9 125.2 136.6 151.1 153.1 164.1 155.8 120.4 68.5 67.1 69.7 70.4 77.1 85.7 92.7 103.2 105.5 106.6 116.0 120.2 129.9 139.3 150.7 154.3 169.5 178.6 192.5 204.1 82 89 92 100 109 122 135 142 .................... .................... 589 744 862 875 1,027 1,223 1,255 1,240 ...................... ...................... 137.7 138.6 134.9 131.7 131.0 121.9 119.1 116.8 113.4 110.1 111.3 112.1 110.2 107.9 109.6 111.0 109.8 113.8 106.8 104.7 104.9 104.4 104.2 107.5 104.9 103.1 201.0 208.7 214.9 199.9 200.2 204.9 199.1 202.1 202.8 205.7 203.2 208.5 210.5 .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... Annual rates 2001: Dec ............................ 2002: Jan ............................ Feb ............................ Mar ............................ Apr ............................ May ........................... June .......................... July ........................... Aug ............................ Sept r .......................... Oct r ........................... Nov ............................ Dec p ........................... 841.8 860.2 874.3 855.2 856.9 847.1 833.7 837.8 829.8 832.2 840.0 847.9 858.3 640.8 651.5 659.4 655.3 656.7 642.2 634.6 635.7 627.1 626.5 636.8 639.3 647.8 395.2 403.3 413.5 413.8 411.8 413.5 410.8 414.0 409.3 412.2 418.0 422.4 434.6 283.1 286.9 293.8 295.4 295.6 294.9 292.8 295.2 292.7 296.7 299.7 304.7 314.4 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. hotels and motels. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., F.W. Dodge Division. 2 Includes 3 F.W. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New private housing units Period Total 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 p .................................... New private houses Units started, by type of structure 1,287.6 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1,616.9 1,640.9 1,568.7 1,602.7 1,704.9 1 unit 1,125.7 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 1,271.4 1,302.4 1,230.9 1,273.3 1,359.7 2–4 units 1 5 units or more 29.4 35.2 33.8 45.3 44.5 42.6 31.9 38.7 36.6 38.8 132.6 223.5 244.1 270.8 295.8 302.9 306.6 299.1 292.8 306.3 Units authorized 1,199.1 1,371.6 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 1,612.3 1,663.5 1,592.3 1,636.7 1,726.3 Units completed Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period 2 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 3 1,192.7 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 1,474.2 1,604.9 1,573.7 1,570.8 1,650.7 666 670 667 757 804 886 880 877 908 976 293 336 370 322 281 294 308 298 308 338 3 7.3 1,705 1,607 1,669 1,576 1,650 1,702 1,587 1,614 1,710 1,652 1,579 1,728 1,683 979 870 937 915 932 974 947 958 1,047 r 1,056 1,006 1,045 1,082 308 310 314 316 324 329 329 331 331 r 332 334 336 338 8.8 ...................... ...................... 9.1 ...................... ...................... 8.5 ...................... ...................... 9.1 ...................... ...................... 9.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2001: Dec ............................ 2002: Jan ............................ Feb ............................ Mar ............................ Apr ............................ May ........................... June .......................... July ........................... Aug ............................ Sept ........................... Oct r ........................... Nov r ........................... Dec p ........................... 1,583 1,713 1,788 1,675 1,566 1,742 1,692 1,652 1,631 1,808 1,660 1,747 1,835 1,294 1,344 1,472 1,298 1,261 1,380 1,344 1,319 1,249 1,452 1,375 1,404 1,473 17 67 43 49 27 37 46 31 31 36 32 34 41 1 Derived; seasonally adjusted monthly data for 2–4 housing units started are no longer published. 2 Seasonally adjusted. 3 Revised series beginning 1994; data for 1993 reflect the revision. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 272 302 273 328 278 325 302 302 351 320 253 309 321 1,702 1,686 1,766 1,629 1,631 1,676 1,706 1,712 1,666 1,733 1,772 1,738 1,887 NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 17,000 places. Beginning 1999, housing starts, completions, and sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In November, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.2 percent and inventories rose $3.2 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales rose 1.3 percent in December; retail and food services sales rose 1.2 percent. [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventorysales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 1993 ................................................................. 564,458 864,841 1.51 150,833 202,730 1.31 1994 ................................................................. 605,983 927,859 1.47 161,133 219,766 1.30 1995 ................................................................. 648,961 986,329 1.49 176,227 236,145 1.31 1996 ................................................................. 680,673 1,005,021 1.47 186,649 238,782 1.28 1997 ................................................................. 716,672 1,044,981 1.43 194,541 256,417 1.27 1998 ................................................................. 736,556 1,076,471 1.45 198,319 269,412 1.33 1999 ................................................................. 779,798 1,134,734 1.41 211,756 285,686 1.31 2000 ................................................................. 827,951 1,198,395 1.42 229,313 304,678 1.30 2001 ................................................................. 815,111 1,122,990 1.43 226,313 288,014 1.32 2002 p .............................................................. ................ .................. ................ ................ ................ ................ 2001: Nov r ..................................................... 806,589 1,129,014 1.40 221,978 289,458 1.30 Dec r ..................................................... 803,005 1,122,990 1.40 220,380 288,014 1.31 2002: Jan ....................................................... 811,196 1,122,911 1.38 223,023 286,994 1.29 Feb ....................................................... 804,624 1,120,288 1.39 224,738 284,508 1.27 Mar ...................................................... 808,644 1,116,303 1.38 224,855 283,732 1.26 Apr ...................................................... 822,615 1,113,864 1.35 228,131 281,193 1.23 May ...................................................... 820,227 1,116,527 1.36 228,052 281,080 1.23 June ..................................................... 822,795 1,119,454 1.36 229,638 282,340 1.23 July ..................................................... 833,564 1,124,317 1.35 231,353 284,083 1.23 Aug ....................................................... 834,562 1,125,024 1.35 233,314 284,348 1.22 Sept ..................................................... 828,454 1,132,074 1.37 232,798 285,386 1.23 Oct r ...................................................... 832,466 1,133,221 1.36 232,891 283,971 1.22 Nov p ..................................................... 834,100 1,136,442 1.36 235,672 284,491 1.21 Dec p ..................................................... ................ .................. ................ ................ ................ ................ 1 See 3 Seasonally 2 Annual 4 Annual page 21 for manufacturing. data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 20 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio 4 164,837 285,906 1.69 178,932 312,019 1.67 188,235 329,536 1.72 200,190 340,335 1.68 209,112 350,763 1.65 219,507 364,288 1.62 239,013 392,501 1.59 254,928 416,475 1.59 263,987 395,814 1.55 272,288 ................ ................ 269,532 395,751 1.47 266,434 395,814 1.49 267,002 399,269 1.50 268,410 401,693 1.50 268,196 401,137 1.50 271,522 402,518 1.48 268,439 406,855 1.52 272,347 408,884 1.50 276,110 412,238 1.49 277,519 412,102 1.48 273,048 417,303 1.53 273,236 420,176 1.54 r275,565 423,731 1.54 279,015 ................ ................ adjusted, end of period. data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Retail and food services sales 2 182,841 197,735 207,704 220,431 230,616 242,228 262,803 280,427 290,713 300,492 296,278 294,328 294,852 296,468 296,199 299,642 296,567 300,634 304,218 305,616 301,181 301,551 r304,198 307,970 MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December, manufacturers’ shipments and unfilled orders fell; new orders and inventories rose Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1993 .................................................... 1994 .................................................... 1995 .................................................... 1996 .................................................... 1997 .................................................... 1998 .................................................... 1999 .................................................... 2000 .................................................... 2001 .................................................... 2002 p ................................................... 2001: Dec ........................................... 2002: Jan ........................................... Feb ........................................... Mar .......................................... Apr ........................................... May .......................................... June ......................................... July .......................................... Aug .......................................... Sept .......................................... Oct r .......................................... Nov r ......................................... Dec p ......................................... 248,789 265,918 284,499 293,835 313,018 318,730 329,029 343,710 324,811 321,313 316,191 321,171 311,476 315,593 322,962 323,736 320,810 326,101 323,729 322,608 326,339 322,863 320,957 130,793 143,081 153,094 158,952 172,409 179,712 186,933 190,502 175,012 173,739 171,075 174,828 170,367 170,376 176,426 175,927 173,205 178,739 175,561 174,008 176,241 173,331 169,853 117,996 122,838 131,405 134,883 140,610 139,019 142,096 153,207 149,799 147,574 145,116 146,343 141,109 145,217 146,536 147,809 147,605 147,362 148,168 148,600 150,098 149,532 151,104 376,205 396,074 420,648 425,904 437,801 442,771 456,547 477,242 439,162 430,241 439,162 436,648 434,087 431,434 430,153 428,592 428,230 427,996 428,574 429,385 429,074 428,220 430,241 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. 235,218 249,272 263,223 267,980 275,348 284,484 289,641 304,151 275,311 265,030 275,311 273,770 271,870 269,094 267,811 266,417 265,478 264,398 264,070 263,516 263,040 262,487 265,030 140,987 146,802 157,425 157,924 162,453 158,287 166,906 173,091 163,851 165,211 163,851 162,878 162,217 162,340 162,342 162,175 162,752 163,598 164,504 165,869 166,034 165,733 165,211 246,668 266,641 285,542 297,282 314,986 317,345 329,770 347,225 321,397 318,835 312,308 315,360 313,068 316,737 318,861 320,873 312,866 326,636 325,464 317,660 321,993 319,427 320,614 128,672 143,803 154,137 162,399 174,377 178,327 187,674 194,017 171,598 171,261 167,192 169,017 171,959 171,520 172,325 173,064 165,261 179,274 177,296 169,060 171,895 169,895 169,510 40,681 45,175 51,011 54,066 60,697 62,133 64,392 69,476 57,886 54,691 55,491 54,680 55,500 53,642 54,220 56,174 50,774 56,933 59,214 52,901 55,213 54,558 55,956 425,314 434,236 446,913 488,392 512,718 495,947 505,376 547,826 506,412 477,626 506,412 500,601 502,193 503,337 499,236 496,373 488,429 488,964 490,699 485,751 481,405 477,969 477,626 1.51 1.45 1.45 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.36 1.37 1.42 1.34 1.39 1.36 1.39 1.37 1.33 1.32 1.33 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.31 1.33 1.34 NOTE.—Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Data exclude semiconductors. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged in December. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.4 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Capital equipment prices fell 0.4 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Period Total finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1993 ........................... 1994 ........................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1999 .......................... 2000 ........................... 2001 ........................... 2002 p ........................ 2001: Dec ................. 2002: Jan ................ Feb ................. Mar ................ Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug r ............... Sept ................ Oct ................. Nov ................. Dec ................. 1 Intermediate 22 124.7 125.5 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 138.0 140.7 138.8 137.8 137.8 138.1 139.3 139.1 138.5 138.7 138.4 138.5 138.6 140.1 139.5 139.5 125.7 126.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 134.3 135.1 137.2 141.3 140.0 140.7 141.8 142.9 143.8 139.5 139.2 139.5 139.4 138.9 137.9 138.9 139.3 139.8 124.4 125.1 127.5 130.5 130.9 129.5 132.3 138.1 140.4 138.3 136.9 136.5 136.7 138.0 138.7 138.1 138.2 138.0 138.2 138.5 140.2 139.4 139.2 materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 121.7 121.6 124.0 127.6 128.2 126.4 130.5 138.4 141.4 138.7 136.3 135.9 136.0 138.0 139.3 138.3 138.5 138.4 138.8 139.3 141.5 140.4 140.4 Durable 128.0 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.7 132.9 133.0 133.9 134.0 132.9 133.7 133.4 133.9 133.6 133.2 133.2 133.5 132.2 132.0 132.4 133.4 132.4 131.4 Nondurable 117.6 116.2 118.8 123.3 124.3 122.2 127.9 138.7 142.8 139.8 135.7 135.4 135.3 138.4 140.4 139.0 139.2 139.6 140.3 140.8 143.5 142.5 142.9 Capital equipment 131.4 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.2 137.6 137.6 138.8 139.7 139.1 139.6 139.5 139.6 139.5 139.2 139.1 139.3 138.7 138.6 138.7 139.2 138.9 138.4 Total finished consumer goods 123.0 123.3 125.6 129.5 130.2 128.9 132.0 138.2 141.5 139.3 137.7 137.8 138.2 139.9 139.6 138.8 139.0 138.9 139.1 139.1 141.0 140.4 140.5 Intermediate materials Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 116.2 118.5 124.9 125.7 125.6 123.0 123.2 129.2 129.7 127.8 125.9 125.6 125.3 126.5 127.5 127.2 127.4 127.8 128.2 128.9 129.8 129.7 129.6 112.7 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.4 116.2 111.1 111.7 115.9 115.6 114.3 114.1 114.0 114.5 113.7 112.7 114.0 115.6 116.4 117.5 117.3 117.9 119.2 116.4 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 123.4 123.9 130.1 130.5 128.5 126.6 126.2 126.0 127.2 128.3 128.0 128.2 128.5 128.8 129.5 130.5 130.4 130.2 102.4 101.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 96.8 98.2 120.6 121.0 108.1 95.5 99.9 98.7 103.6 108.0 108.9 104.9 106.3 108.3 108.6 112.3 118.0 120.3 108.4 106.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 103.9 98.7 100.2 106.1 99.5 97.6 101.8 103.6 102.7 96.2 96.2 95.3 97.2 99.0 100.9 100.8 100.7 101.8 94.7 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 88.4 94.3 130.4 126.8 111.2 90.6 95.0 91.3 100.7 113.8 115.4 109.0 110.0 112.0 111.0 117.7 127.9 131.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted; it fell 0.2 percent not seasonally adjusted. The index was 2.4 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Rel. imp.3 ......................... 1993 ................................. 1994 ................................. 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1998 ................................. 1999 ................................. 2000 ................................. 2001 ................................. 2002 ................................. Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) Food Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82= 100) Total 1 Rent of primary residence 31.5 155.7 160.5 165.7 171.0 176.3 182.1 187.3 193.4 200.6 208.1 6.4 150.3 154.0 157.8 162.0 166.7 172.1 177.5 183.9 192.1 199.7 22.0 160.5 165.8 171.3 176.8 181.9 187.8 192.9 198.7 206.3 214.7 4.5 121.3 122.8 123.7 127.5 130.8 128.5 128.8 137.9 150.2 143.6 Total 1 100.0 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 14.7 140.9 144.3 148.4 153.3 157.3 160.7 164.1 167.8 173.1 176.2 40.9 141.2 144.8 148.5 152.8 156.8 160.4 163.9 169.6 176.4 180.3 2001: Dec ...................... 176.7 177.3 174.8 177.9 204.3 196.2 210.7 2002: Jan ...................... Feb ....................... Mar ...................... Apr ....................... May ...................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ....................... Sept ...................... Oct ....................... Nov ....................... Dec ....................... 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3 180.9 177.6 178.0 178.6 179.5 179.5 179.7 179.9 180.5 180.8 181.3 181.5 181.6 175.4 175.8 176.1 176.2 175.8 175.8 176.1 176.0 176.4 176.5 176.9 177.4 178.2 178.7 178.9 179.5 180.0 180.1 180.3 180.9 181.1 181.6 181.9 182.2 205.0 206.0 206.2 207.1 207.6 207.8 208.2 209.0 209.3 209.8 210.4 210.8 196.8 197.5 198.2 198.5 199.0 199.5 200.0 200.4 200.7 201.3 202.0 202.3 211.4 212.2 212.8 213.5 213.9 214.5 215.1 215.7 216.2 216.8 217.1 217.7 1 Includes items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars 4.4 133.7 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.9 133.0 131.3 129.6 127.3 124.0 17.1 ............ 130.4 131.5 134.3 136.0 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 141.6 140.7 144.4 139.6 153.3 139.6 154.3 138.9 152.9 137.3 143.4 124.9 148.8 139.6 143.1 141.6 142.1 142.4 143.6 143.5 143.2 143.7 144.3 144.9 144.9 145.6 124.0 124.6 126.1 125.4 124.7 123.6 122.4 123.7 123.8 123.8 123.3 122.7 149.2 148.9 150.7 153.3 152.7 152.8 153.3 153.9 154.3 155.2 155.1 154.6 138.7 138.0 137.6 137.3 136.9 136.7 136.6 136.6 137.0 137.5 137.4 136.9 Motor fuel 2.6 98.0 98.5 100.0 106.3 106.2 92.2 100.7 129.3 124.7 116.6 Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy 5.8 201.4 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 250.6 260.8 272.8 285.6 6.2 104.2 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.5 102.9 106.6 124.6 129.3 121.7 79.1 152.2 156.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 173.4 177.0 181.3 186.1 190.5 98.5 278.4 113.2 188.3 101.1 101.0 109.6 120.4 117.0 117.4 118.8 119.7 120.9 125.0 124.7 122.8 279.7 280.4 281.4 282.7 284.0 284.6 286.5 287.1 288.0 289.8 291.4 292.3 114.2 113.3 117.6 122.9 122.0 122.0 122.5 123.2 124.1 126.4 126.1 125.6 188.6 189.1 189.3 189.8 190.1 190.2 190.5 191.1 191.3 191.6 191.9 192.0 3 Relative importance, December 2001. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 1.8 2.0 2.2 .4 ¥.6 0 .3 1.2 0 ¥.9 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1993 ..................... 1994 ..................... 1995 ..................... 1996 ..................... 1997 ..................... 1998 ..................... 1999 ..................... 2000 ..................... 2001 ..................... 2002 p ................... 0.2 1.7 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 0 2.9 3.6 ¥1.6 1.2 ¥1.4 2.0 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 ¥.1 5.1 5.5 ¥3.9 3.1 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 .1 .8 1.7 1.8 ¥.6 1.2 .6 1.9 2.7 .4 ¥.8 1.8 3.8 2.0 ¥1.4 Change, month to month 2001: Dec ........... ¥0.4 ¥0.1 ¥0.6 0.1 ¥9.0 ¥4.2 ¥13.9 ¥1.4 ¥5.4 ¥1.3 ¥9.3 ¥0.1 ¥1.6 2002: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ........... May .......... June .......... July .......... Aug r .......... Sept ........... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ............ 0 .8 .8 .6 ¥3.0 ¥.2 .2 ¥.1 ¥.4 r ¥.7 .7 .3 .4 ¥.3 .1 1.5 .9 ¥.7 .1 ¥.1 .3 .4 1.6 ¥.8 0 ¥.1 .1 ¥.1 ¥.2 ¥.1 .1 ¥.4 ¥.1 r .1 .4 ¥.2 ¥.4 ¥4.0 ¥.6 4.4 3.8 1.2 ¥1.7 ¥2.0 0 ¥.3 5.0 2.9 2.6 ¥.8 5.8 9.1 ¥6.3 ¥10.0 ¥11.4 ¥.3 ¥.9 ¥4.5 ¥1.4 r 1.2 5.6 ¥7.0 ¥3.2 5.1 10.4 6.9 1.5 ¥2.6 1.5 2.3 9.3 4.7 3.2 0 ¥3.1 ¥3.5 ¥2.5 ¥.1 .3 1.3 .9 .6 ¥1.0 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.3 ¥3.6 ¥2.4 ¥1.7 ¥3.4 ¥5.5 ¥8.0 ¥.9 .1 .4 ¥5.9 ¥6.6 ¥4.9 1.3 1.8 3.3 3.7 4.2 1.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 ¥.7 ¥.6 ¥.9 ¥.4 ¥.4 ¥.4 ¥1.1 ¥1.4 ¥1.1 0 ¥.3 ¥1.3 ¥2.7 ¥2.6 ¥1.6 ¥2.1 ¥2.9 ¥2.3 ¥1.2 ¥1.5 ¥1.9 .6 .9 1.2 .2 .9 ¥.1 ¥.4 .1 ¥.2 .1 .1 1.1 ¥.4 0 .6 ¥.3 ¥.9 ¥1.4 ¥.6 ¥1.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 1.4 r .9 ¥.9 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of Ownpriers’ mary equivaresilent dence rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.4 4.5 3.3 2.5 .2 1.4 4.6 .5 ¥2.6 2.4 12.1 ¥2.1 1.4 0.9 ¥1.6 .1 ¥.2 1.0 ¥.7 ¥.5 ¥1.8 ¥3.2 ¥1.8 2.4 3.8 1.5 4.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 5.4 4.1 ¥3.8 3.8 2.8 3.2 1.6 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥.1 ¥.8 .3 0 ¥2.0 ¥5.4 5.9 ¥4.0 12.7 ¥6.2 ¥15.4 30.2 13.9 ¥24.8 24.6 5.4 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.0 ¥1.4 2.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 ¥8.8 13.4 14.2 ¥13.0 10.7 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.9 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 Change, month to month 2001: Dec ............... ¥0.1 2002: Jan ................ Feb ................ Mar ............... Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug ................ Sept ............... Oct ................ Nov ................ Dec ................ .2 .2 .3 .5 1 Includes 0 .1 .1 .3 .2 .3 .1 .1 0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 ¥0.8 ¥0.6 ¥0.9 0.2 ¥5.9 0.3 ¥3.0 0.1 ¥0.2 ¥1.8 ¥0.6 1.6 .3 .2 .2 .1 ¥.2 0 .2 ¥.1 .2 .1 .2 .3 .2 .3 .1 .3 .3 .1 .1 .3 .1 .3 .2 .2 .3 .5 .1 .4 .2 .1 .2 .4 .1 .2 .3 .2 .3 .4 .4 .2 .3 .3 .3 .2 .1 .3 .3 .1 .3 .4 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .1 .3 ¥.2 ¥1.0 .4 .2 .8 ¥.1 ¥.2 .3 .4 .4 0 .5 ¥.7 .5 1.2 ¥.6 ¥.6 ¥.9 ¥1.0 1.1 .1 0 ¥.4 ¥.5 .3 ¥.2 1.2 1.7 ¥.4 .1 .3 .4 .3 .6 ¥.1 ¥.3 ¥.6 ¥.5 ¥.3 ¥.2 ¥.3 ¥.1 ¥.1 0 .3 .4 ¥.1 ¥.4 2.6 ¥.1 8.5 9.9 ¥2.8 .3 1.2 .8 1.0 3.4 ¥.2 ¥1.5 .5 .3 .4 .5 .5 .2 .7 .2 .3 .6 .6 .3 .9 ¥.8 3.8 4.5 ¥.7 0 .4 .6 .7 1.9 ¥.2 ¥.4 .2 .3 .1 .3 .2 .1 .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 .1 .......... .......... 1.4 .......... .......... 3.4 .......... .......... 1.8 .......... .......... 2.5 0 1.1 3.0 4.3 3.4 2.5 .9 2.2 2.5 3.1 2.2 1.8 .3 .7 .6 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 24 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In January, prices received by farmers rose 1.0 percent while prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 All farm products 101 100 102 112 107 102 r 96 96 102 99 2002: Jan .................... Feb .................... Mar .................... Apr .................... May .................... June ................... July .................... Aug .................... Sept ................... Oct ..................... Nov r ................... Dec .................... 2003: Jan .................... 95 99 106 95 r 98 r 99 100 r 101 r 100 96 97 98 99 1 Includes Livestock and products Crops ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... .............................. .............................. ............................... .............................. .............................. .............................. Prices paid by farmers All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 102 105 112 127 115 107 96 96 99 106 100 95 92 99 98 97 95 97 106 91 104 106 109 115 118 115 115 120 124 124 r 94 97 97 r 96 90 90 91 89 87 86 87 90 91 95 122 123 123 123 123 123 r 124 124 125 125 125 126 126 r 102 117 r 101 106 r 107 111 r 116 r 111 102 104 104 102 items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 103 Production items Ratio 2 108 115 118 114 113 118 122 122 104 106 108 115 119 113 111 116 120 119 97 94 93 98 90 89 83 r 80 83 80 121 120 121 121 121 121 121 122 123 123 123 124 124 117 117 118 118 118 118 119 120 121 121 121 121 122 78 80 86 77 r 80 80 81 81 r80 77 78 78 79 r 106 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910—14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990—92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In December, M2 and M3 rose. (Series revised.) [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 M2 M3 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutional MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors1 Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec ........................................................ 1,129.3 1,149.9 1,126.7 1,078.4 1,071.4 1,095.0 1,121.9 1,084.9 1,173.4 1,211.6 3,483.2 3,496.2 3,640.1 3,814.3 4,029.8 4,381.5 4,648.0 4,926.9 5,440.6 5,791.7 4,277.4 4,359.8 4,624.9 4,970.5 5,444.3 6,032.3 6,528.6 7,090.5 7,993.5 8,502.1 12,434.1 13,001.5 13,706.9 14,440.2 15,243.1 16,285.5 17,377.6 18,250.6 19,369.2 ...................... 10.3 1.8 ¥2.0 ¥4.3 ¥.6 2.2 2.5 ¥3.3 8.2 3.3 1.5 .4 4.1 4.8 5.6 8.7 6.1 6.0 10.4 6.5 1.5 1.9 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.8 8.2 8.6 12.7 6.4 4.9 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.6 6.8 6.5 4.9 6.1 ............ 2002: Jan r ...................................................... Feb r ...................................................... Mar r ...................................................... Apr r ...................................................... May r ...................................................... June r ..................................................... July r ...................................................... Aug r ...................................................... Sept r ..................................................... Oct r ....................................................... Nov r ...................................................... Dec ........................................................ 1,179.7 1,186.1 1,188.1 1,173.7 1,184.4 1,190.2 1,197.4 1,186.3 1,192.5 1,203.9 1,203.4 1,211.6 5,464.4 5,502.7 5,503.5 5,491.5 5,557.3 5,589.1 5,638.0 5,677.1 5,703.5 5,741.7 5,778.6 5,791.7 8,004.7 8,056.0 8,068.4 8,071.2 8,135.1 8,171.4 8,221.0 8,291.0 8,333.5 8,338.1 8,454.5 8,502.1 ...................... ...................... 19,601.0 ...................... ...................... 20,004.5 ...................... ...................... 20,336.8 ...................... ...................... ...................... 7.3 6.3 ¥2.3 1.6 3.2 2.9 3.0 .0 .7 5.1 3.2 3.6 9.0 9.1 4.9 5.0 5.9 5.5 6.4 6.3 7.3 9.1 8.0 7.2 9.0 10.1 6.2 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.4 5.8 6.6 6.6 7.9 8.1 ............ ............ 4.8 ............ ............ 8.2 ............ ............ 6.6 ............ ............ ............ Period 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 1 Quarterly data; shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 Percent change From year or 6 months earlier2 M1 M2 M3 From previous period3 Debt 3 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Money stock series reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions released on January 30, 2003. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Currency Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts 1 (MMDAs) Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Money market mutual fund balances Small denomination time deposits Institutional Retail Large denomination time deposits 1 Overnight and term Overnight repurand term chase Euroagreedollars ments (net) (RPs) (net) Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec ........................................... 321.6 354.0 372.1 394.1 424.6 459.7 517.5 531.0 581.4 626.9 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.5 385.5 383.6 389.3 400.3 393.1 377.1 352.2 306.7 325.6 296.5 414.8 404.2 356.8 275.7 245.7 250.0 244.0 239.2 258.8 280.7 1,219.3 1,149.8 1,134.1 1,274.0 1,400.6 1,602.9 1,738.4 1,874.0 2,303.5 2,758.2 782.0 816.3 931.4 946.9 968.0 951.4 955.0 1,043.2 972.9 879.9 352.5 380.1 447.8 515.1 589.8 732.2 832.7 924.8 990.7 942.0 217.0 211.1 264.2 322.4 395.3 538.7 634.4 788.2 1,189.7 1,232.9 331.8 369.8 428.1 508.7 617.8 669.2 741.2 820.3 785.7 795.1 172.6 196.4 198.5 210.5 254.0 293.4 335.7 363.5 375.0 469.0 72.8 86.3 94.0 114.7 147.5 149.5 169.2 191.5 202.5 213.4 2002: Jan r .......................................... Feb r .......................................... Mar r .......................................... Apr r .......................................... May r .......................................... June r ......................................... July r ......................................... Aug r .......................................... Sept r ......................................... Oct r ........................................... Nov r .......................................... Dec ............................................ 587.0 591.9 595.7 599.8 604.6 609.0 613.3 615.9 617.8 620.5 623.2 626.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.5 324.9 325.1 323.3 305.2 306.5 305.6 304.5 289.6 292.0 299.3 294.1 296.5 259.9 261.3 261.4 261.0 265.5 267.4 271.1 272.5 274.8 276.4 278.7 280.7 2,344.6 2,394.7 2,417.4 2,446.3 2,494.5 2,526.2 2,563.0 2,620.5 2,659.5 2,696.0 2,739.3 2,758.2 960.7 949.7 940.5 932.7 926.8 921.0 915.0 908.7 900.2 893.2 886.8 879.9 979.3 972.2 957.3 938.8 951.6 951.6 962.5 961.7 951.3 948.5 949.2 942.0 1,174.5 1,179.6 1,184.6 1,188.5 1,188.1 1,196.6 1,192.1 1,191.2 1,183.0 1,142.2 1,207.5 1,232.9 790.5 793.3 796.9 808.1 814.7 813.9 817.5 818.8 817.1 824.2 816.0 795.1 373.0 372.9 374.6 375.3 371.4 371.8 373.1 399.9 422.5 420.9 440.5 469.0 202.3 207.6 208.8 207.7 203.6 200.1 200.3 203.9 207.5 209.2 211.8 213.4 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Note.—See Note, p. 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1;millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 2 Nonborrowed 3 Required Excess (NSA) Monetary base ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... ........................................................................... 60,460 59,369 56,430 50,149 46,848 45,136 41,824 38,535 41,220 40,072 60,378 59,160 56,173 49,994 46,523 45,019 41,504 38,326 41,154 39,992 59,390 58,209 55,140 48,733 45,163 43,622 40,527 37,108 39,572 38,084 1,070 1,159 1,290 1,416 1,685 1,514 1,297 1,427 1,649 1,988 r 386,462 2002: Jan ........................................................................... Feb .......................................................................... Mar .......................................................................... Apr ........................................................................... May .......................................................................... June ......................................................................... July .......................................................................... Aug .......................................................................... Sept ......................................................................... Oct ........................................................................... Nov r ......................................................................... Dec ........................................................................... 41,735 41,450 41,050 40,806 39,164 39,313 39,679 40,054 39,275 38,918 39,561 40,072 41,685 41,420 40,971 40,735 39,052 39,171 39,488 39,721 39,045 38,776 39,290 39,992 40,340 40,080 39,629 39,594 37,902 38,075 38,305 38,417 37,799 37,368 37,945 38,084 1,395 1,371 1,421 1,211 1,261 1,238 1,374 1,637 1,476 1,550 1,616 1,988 r 641,839 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Reserves and monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or ‘‘breaks,’’ associated with changes in reserve requirements. r 418,194 r 434,400 r 451,921 r 479,838 r 513,891 r 593,726 r 584,961 r 635,781 681,947 r 646,592 r 650,155 r 654,332 r 657,636 r 662,015 r 666,912 r 669,661 r 671,350 r 674,279 677,622 681,947 Total Seasonal Adjustment 82 209 257 155 324 117 320 210 67 80 31 100 40 68 79 15 67 111 33 45 51 109 217 87 245 101 179 99 34 35 50 30 79 71 112 142 191 333 229 143 272 80 17 17 20 50 105 136 176 185 169 120 60 45 33 12 59 21 7 6 16 148 60 23 211 35 2 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. 3 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.5 percent in December; commercial and industrial loans fell 0.2 percent. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2002: Dec ............ Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec r .......... Dec ............ Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r ......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r ......... Sept r ......... Oct r .......... Nov r ......... Dec ........... Total bank credit 3,115.7 3,322.5 r 3,605.5 3,761.8 r 4,105.5 4,546.0 4,782.4 5,234.0 5,451.0 5,885.8 5,428.7 5,438.9 5,433.9 5,450.8 5,498.9 5,540.8 5,591.5 5,673.2 5,730.4 5,759.7 5,837.4 5,885.8 Total securities U.S. Treasury and agency securities 917.7 942.4 986.7 980.5 1,089.1 1,229.8 1,277.6 1,345.7 1,496.8 1,714.3 1,491.0 1,488.5 1,488.0 1,504.4 1,535.5 1,562.5 1,594.6 1,632.9 1,643.5 1,643.1 1,688.0 1,714.3 732.9 724.3 703.8 700.5 749.6 792.8 811.3 r 790.9 856.2 1,012.3 839.2 832.7 849.7 870.6 893.7 909.3 918.9 946.3 962.9 972.4 1,001.4 1,012.3 Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate Other Total loans Commersecurities and leases 2 cial and industrial 184.8 218.2 282.9 280.0 339.5 437.0 466.4 r 554.8 640.6 702.1 651.8 655.8 638.3 633.8 641.8 653.3 675.8 686.6 680.6 670.7 686.6 702.1 r 2,198.1 2,380.1 r 2,618.8 2,781.3 r 3,016.4 3,316.2 r 3,504.7 3,888.3 3,954.2 4,171.4 3,937.8 3,950.4 3,945.9 3,946.4 3,963.4 3,978.3 3,996.9 4,040.2 4,086.9 4,116.6 4,149.4 4,171.4 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 590.2 650.2 724.2 787.9 856.5 951.0 r 1,003.9 r 1,088.4 1,031.4 965.0 1,022.2 1,028.9 1,023.7 1,008.5 1,001.0 993.5 981.9 981.8 975.1 969.9 967.3 965.0 Total 948.3 1,012.0 1,090.6 1,142.6 1,248.5 1,339.5 1,477.7 1,658.4 1,784.5 2,020.6 1,781.0 1,789.1 1,790.3 1,794.5 1,816.6 1,838.4 1,869.2 1,900.7 1,935.0 1,967.4 2,000.1 2,020.6 Revolving home equity 78.0 80.4 84.4 90.7 104.8 103.9 101.5 129.9 155.5 212.4 158.7 162.2 167.6 172.1 179.6 186.1 192.9 197.7 200.9 204.9 207.7 212.4 Consumer Security Other Other 870.3 931.5 1,006.2 1,051.8 1,143.7 1,235.6 1,376.3 1,528.5 1,628.9 1,808.2 1,622.3 1,626.9 1,622.7 1,622.4 1,637.0 1,652.4 1,676.3 1,703.0 1,734.2 1,762.6 1,792.3 1,808.2 387.7 448.3 491.4 512.9 502.5 497.2 490.6 539.5 557.9 587.0 560.9 564.4 563.4 567.7 570.1 568.8 564.7 574.8 582.8 584.8 585.6 587.0 r 86.5 r 75.9 83.3 75.5 r 95.0 146.5 r 151.9 r 178.7 146.8 191.6 152.0 153.4 161.3 168.4 169.7 170.2 178.1 176.7 181.4 183.1 186.7 191.6 185.4 193.8 229.2 262.4 313.9 382.0 380.7 423.4 433.7 407.2 421.7 414.6 407.2 407.2 406.0 407.4 403.0 406.3 412.6 411.3 409.7 407.2 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2000: .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2001: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2002: I ............. II ........... III p ........ 626.7 728.6 808.2 1,010.7 1,074.5 1,011.1 1,332.8 1,743.9 1,540.8 1,064.4 1,669.2 1,674.6 1,541.0 1,278.3 1,153.1 976.0 1,080.0 1,048.7 1,052.2 1,044.6 917.7 Internal 1 465.4 510.7 566.6 619.9 676.0 727.6 716.8 756.3 741.0 777.1 740.5 751.0 743.9 728.4 710.3 748.3 789.7 860.1 815.4 797.2 785.2 Credit market instruments Total 161.3 217.9 241.6 390.8 398.5 283.5 616.0 987.6 799.8 287.3 928.7 923.6 797.1 549.9 442.8 227.7 290.3 188.6 236.8 247.4 132.5 Capital expenditures 3 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues 52.7 54.5 81.4 168.7 113.6 177.2 125.2 247.1 240.1 183.8 497.8 288.9 161.1 12.7 212.7 242.8 64.7 214.8 ¥1.6 116.8 ¥128.3 27.0 21.3 ¥44.9 ¥58.3 ¥69.5 ¥114.4 ¥267.0 ¥143.5 ¥159.7 ¥61.8 62.2 ¥245.7 ¥87.8 ¥367.5 ¥25.0 ¥70.7 ¥126.6 ¥25.0 ¥8.7 18.5 ¥139.0 Total Securities and mortgages 25.7 33.2 126.3 227.1 183.1 291.6 392.1 390.5 399.8 245.6 435.6 534.6 248.9 380.2 237.7 313.5 191.3 239.8 7.1 98.3 10.7 1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 35.5 55.4 32.0 102.1 129.6 187.0 241.5 269.0 222.4 394.1 240.5 198.0 200.2 250.9 440.4 449.0 279.7 407.0 239.6 264.3 29.2 Loans and shortterm paper ¥9.9 ¥22.2 94.3 124.9 53.7 104.6 150.7 121.6 177.4 ¥148.5 195.1 336.6 48.7 129.2 ¥202.8 ¥135.3 ¥88.4 ¥167.3 ¥232.5 ¥166.0 ¥18.4 Other 2 108.7 163.4 160.3 222.1 284.9 106.3 490.8 740.6 559.7 103.5 430.9 634.7 636.0 537.2 230.1 ¥15.2 225.5 ¥26.1 238.5 130.5 260.7 601.8 841.5 850.7 1,065.1 1,116.7 1,032.6 1,396.4 1,854.9 1,718.6 1,082.0 1,825.8 1,854.3 1,729.1 1,465.4 1,201.7 1,005.6 1,113.0 1,007.7 996.1 998.7 901.7 455.8 508.8 575.6 638.7 662.7 760.2 826.5 885.0 957.2 794.2 936.5 970.3 975.3 946.9 866.3 812.3 781.2 717.1 773.6 796.3 813.2 Increase in financial assets 146.0 332.7 275.1 426.4 454.0 272.4 569.9 969.9 761.4 287.8 889.3 884.0 753.8 518.5 335.4 193.3 331.8 290.6 222.5 202.4 88.5 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 24.9 ¥112.8 ¥42.5 ¥54.4 ¥42.2 ¥21.5 ¥63.6 ¥111.0 ¥177.9 ¥17.5 ¥156.6 ¥179.7 ¥188.0 ¥187.1 ¥48.6 ¥29.6 ¥32.9 41.0 56.1 45.8 16.1 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and access rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1992: 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2001: Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Nov ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... 2002: Jan ............................................................................... Feb ............................................................................... Mar .............................................................................. Apr ............................................................................... May .............................................................................. June ............................................................................. July .............................................................................. Aug .............................................................................. Sept .............................................................................. Oct r .............................................................................. Nov p ............................................................................. 782.2 838.8 960.4 1,095.8 1,185.1 1,243.0 1,317.5 1,416.3 1,560.6 1,667.9 1,664.1 1,667.9 1,673.8 1,680.5 1,688.4 1,696.3 1,704.6 1,707.5 1,714.8 1,717.8 1,722.5 1,724.1 1,721.9 1 Change based on data in billions of dollar as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. Revolving 278.4 309.9 365.6 443.1 498.9 531.0 562.5 597.7 666.6 699.9 704.9 699.9 700.9 700.6 703.4 708.1 709.7 712.1 715.8 719.5 721.3 723.7 722.1 Nonrevolving 2 503.7 528.8 594.9 652.7 686.1 712.0 755.0 818.6 894.0 968.1 959.1 968.1 972.9 979.9 985.0 988.2 994.9 995.3 999.0 998.3 1,001.3 1,000.4 999.7 Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Total 5.1 56.6 121.6 135.4 89.3 57.9 74.5 98.8 144.3 107.3 20.6 3.8 5.9 6.7 7.9 7.9 8.3 2.9 7.3 3.0 4.7 1.6 ¥2.2 Revolving 14.6 31.5 55.7 77.5 55.8 32.1 31.5 35.2 68.9 33.3 7.2 ¥5.0 1.0 ¥.3 2.8 4.7 1.6 2.4 3.7 3.7 1.8 2.4 ¥1.6 Nonrevolving 2 ¥9.6 25.1 66.1 57.8 33.4 25.9 43.0 63.6 75.4 74.1 13.3 9.0 4.8 7.0 5.1 3.2 6.7 .4 3.7 ¥.7 3.0 ¥.9 ¥.7 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Overall, interest rates fell in January. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant Period 1993 ....................... 1994 ....................... 1995 ....................... 1996 ....................... 1997 ....................... 1998 ....................... 1999 ....................... 2000 ....................... 2001 ....................... 2002 ....................... 2002: Jan ............. Feb ............. Mar ............. Apr ............. May ............ June ........... July ............ Aug ............. Sept ............. Oct .............. Nov ............. Dec .............. 2003: Jan .............. Week ended: 2003: Jan 4 ........ 11 ........ 18 ........ 25 ........ Feb 1 ........ 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 3-year maturities 2 10-year 30-year Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) 30 Primary credit 4 Discount rate 5 3.02 4.29 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.81 4.66 5.85 3.45 1.62 1.66 1.73 1.81 1.72 1.74 1.71 1.68 1.63 1.63 1.60 1.26 1.20 1.17 4.44 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.14 5.49 6.22 4.09 3.10 3.56 3.55 4.14 4.01 3.80 3.49 3.01 2.52 2.32 2.25 2.32 2.23 2.18 5.87 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.65 6.03 5.02 4.61 5.04 4.91 5.28 5.21 5.16 4.93 4.65 4.26 3.87 3.94 4.05 4.03 4.05 6.59 7.37 6.88 6.71 6.61 5.58 5.87 5.94 5.49 * 5.45 * * * * * * * * * * * * 5.63 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.55 5.12 5.43 5.77 5.19 5.05 5.19 5.14 5.27 5.27 5.22 5.11 5.01 4.92 4.73 4.85 4.98 4.91 4.88 7.22 7.96 7.59 7.37 7.26 6.53 7.04 7.62 7.08 6.49 6.55 6.51 6.81 6.76 6.75 6.63 6.53 6.37 6.15 6.32 6.31 6.21 6.17 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 2.25 * 1.19 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.14 2.09 2.24 2.21 2.10 2.16 3.94 4.10 4.10 3.97 4.01 * * * * * 4.81 4.89 4.93 4.89 4.89 6.16 6.24 6.22 6.11 6.09 .............. 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 * * * * basis. on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 The rate for primary credit replaces the rate for adjustment credit under an amendment to the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation A, effective January 9, 2003. 5 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 2 Yields Discount window (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 6 Daily Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 7 3.00 3.60 5.21 5.02 5.00 4.92 4.62 5.73 3.40 1.17 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 0.75 0.75 6.00 7.15 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.35 8.00 9.23 6.91 4.67 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.25 4.25 4.25 3.02 4.21 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.88 1.67 1.73 1.74 1.73 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.75 1.34 1.24 1.24 7.20 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.07 7.04 7.52 7.00 6.43 6.87 6.82 6.76 6.74 6.59 6.47 6.37 6.26 6.17 6.09 6.08 6.04 .............. 0.75 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 1.20 1.20 1.26 1.23 1.24 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published or discontinued. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices were mixed in January. Common stock prices 1 Common stock yields (percent) 8 New York Stock Exchange indexes 2 Period Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 6 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 7 3,522.06 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 8,625.52 10,464.88 10,734.90 10,189.13 9,226.43 451.41 460.42 541.72 670.50 873.43 1,085.50 1,327.33 1,427.22 1,194.18 993.94 715.16 751.65 925.19 1,164.96 1,469.49 1,794.91 2,728.15 3,783.67 2,035.00 1,539.73 2.78 2.82 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.49 1.25 1.15 1.32 1.61 4.46 5.83 6.09 5.24 4.57 3.46 3.17 3.63 2.95 .................. 591.94 570.18 609.72 610.24 603.15 577.05 524.01 533.60 506.05 494.06 523.50 519.72 9,923.80 9,891.05 10,500.95 10,165.18 10,080.48 9,492.44 8,616.52 8,685.48 8,160.78 8,048.12 8,625.72 8,526.66 1,140.21 1,100.67 1,153.79 1,112.03 1,079.27 1,014.05 903.59 912.55 867.81 854.63 909.93 899.18 1,976.77 1,799.72 1,863.05 1,758.80 1,660.31 1,505.49 1,346.09 1,327.36 1,251.07 1,241.91 1,409.15 1,387.15 1.38 1.43 1.37 1.42 1.47 1.58 1.76 1.72 1.80 1.86 1.73 1.77 .................. .................. 2.15 .................. .................. 2.70 .................. .................. r 3.68 .................. .................. .................. 236.43 522.51 8,474.59 895.84 1,389.56 1.80 .................. 237.54 249.02 242.62 228.80 221.56 518.21 535.75 536.00 515.56 500.14 8,470.92 8,734.11 8,727.28 8,315.53 8,037.61 894.21 923.40 918.50 878.68 854.14 1,361.75 1,428.03 1,429.15 1,363.54 1,333.75 1.81 1.75 1.74 1.83 1.87 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Dow Jones industrial average 5 December 31, 1965=50 Composite (Dec. 31, 2002=5,000) 3 Industrial Transportation ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... 2,638.96 2,687.02 3,078.56 3,787.20 4,827.35 5,818.26 6,546.81 6,805.89 6,397.85 5,578.89 299.99 315.25 367.34 453.98 574.52 681.57 774.78 810.63 748.26 657.37 242.49 247.29 269.41 327.33 414.60 468.69 491.60 413.60 443.59 431.10 228.90 209.06 220.30 249.77 283.82 378.12 473.73 477.65 377.30 260.85 216.42 209.73 238.45 303.89 424.48 516.35 530.86 553.13 595.61 555.27 2002: Jan ................. Feb ................. Mar ................. Apr ................. May ................. June ................ July ................ Aug ................. Sept ................ Oct .................. Nov ................. Dec ................. 6,151.15 6,022.23 6,352.08 6,212.88 6,087.85 5,755.89 5,139.94 5,200.62 4,980.65 4,862.70 5,104.89 5,075.76 723.56 715.80 751.79 732.71 718.12 677.58 603.04 611.34 589.14 574.45 597.75 593.15 446.13 453.51 490.51 470.00 459.55 449.42 416.10 409.96 388.19 383.41 405.03 401.39 322.49 301.32 316.27 r 300.66 287.10 265.21 230.19 225.52 210.76 207.83 229.41 233.38 2003: Jan ................. 5,055.78 587.78 394.84 Week ended: 2003: Jan 4 11 18 25 Feb 1 5,070.15 5,197.33 5,177.63 4,963.78 4,829.41 591.28 603.09 600.53 577.89 562.77 400.40 409.23 404.16 383.53 375.87 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 Average ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ Utility 4 of daily closing prices. all the stocks (nearly 3,000) listed on the NYSE. January 9, 2003, the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in methodology, definitions, and based on Dec. 31, 2002=5,000. 4 Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. 5 Includes 30 stocks. 6 Includes 500 stocks. 7 Includes over 4,000 stocks. 8 Standard & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earn2 Includes 3 Effective Finance Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio ings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, and Nasdaq Stock Market. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 3 months of fiscal 2003, there was a deficit of $108.7 billion, compared with a deficit of $35.4 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total Surplus or deficit (¥) Receipts 769.2 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.2 1,853.2 1,836.2 990.4 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.6 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 1,788.8 1,863.9 2,011.0 2,140.4 ¥221.2 ¥149.7 ¥155.2 ¥152.5 ¥221.2 ¥269.3 ¥290.4 ¥255.1 ¥203.3 ¥164.0 ¥107.5 ¥22.0 69.2 125.6 236.4 127.3 ¥157.8 ¥304.2 569.0 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.3 1,306.0 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.7 1,337.9 1,304.7 806.9 810.2 861.8 932.7 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.9 1,182.5 1,227.1 1,259.6 1,290.6 1,336.0 1,381.1 1,458.0 1,517.1 1,655.3 1,772.3 ¥237.9 ¥169.3 ¥194.0 ¥205.2 ¥277.8 ¥321.5 ¥340.5 ¥300.4 ¥258.9 ¥226.4 ¥174.1 ¥103.3 ¥30.0 1.9 86.6 ¥33.4 ¥317.5 ¥467.6 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 531.6 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 368.1 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 163.5 2,120.5 2,346.0 2,601.1 2,867.8 3,206.3 3,598.2 4,001.8 4,351.0 4,643.3 4,920.6 5,181.5 5,369.2 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,752.0 1,740.6 1,889.8 2,051.6 2,190.7 2,411.6 2,689.0 2,999.7 3,248.4 3,433.1 3,604.4 3,734.1 3,772.3 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,878.4 466.3 427.4 501.7 536.1 ¥35.4 ¥108.7 356.3 309.4 437.3 471.3 ¥81.0 ¥161.9 110.0 118.0 64.3 64.8 45.6 53.2 5,909.4 6,381.5 3,379.5 3,637.0 Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Federal debt (end of period) Outlays 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 32 Off-budget Receipts Fiscal year or period 1986 r ..................................... 1987 r ..................................... 1988 r ..................................... 1989 r ..................................... 1990 r ..................................... 1991 r ..................................... 1992 r ..................................... 1993 r ..................................... 1994 r ..................................... 1995 r ..................................... 1996 r ..................................... 1997 r ..................................... 1998 r ..................................... 1999 r ..................................... 2000 r ..................................... 2001 r ..................................... 2002 r ..................................... 2003 (estimates) r .................. Cumulative total, first 3 months: 1 Fiscal year 2002 ................ Fiscal year 2003 ................ On-budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Gross Federal 2004, issued February 3, 2003. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. Held by the public FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 3 months of fiscal 2003, receipts were $38.9 billion lower than a year earlier and outlays were $34.4 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total 73.2 r 990.4 74.6 1,004.1 79.3 1,064.5 82.8 r 1,143.6 1986 1987 1988 1989 ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... 769.2 854.4 909.3 991.2 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... ................................................... 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 879.5 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 184.7 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 611.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.2 132.7 151.5 2,025.2 1,004.5 1,991.2 994.3 1,853.2 858.3 1,836.2 849.1 207.3 151.1 148.0 143.2 652.9 694.0 700.8 726.6 55.7 33.0 152.7 162.0 2000 ................................................... 2001 r ................................................. 2002 r ................................................. 2003 (estimates) r .............................. Cumulative total, first 3 months: 1 Fiscal year 2002 ............................ Fiscal year 2003 ............................ 466.3 427.4 226.3 197.7 Total InterDepart- nationment of al Defense, affairs military Health Medicare Income Social security security 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 120.6 124.1 130.4 137.4 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 r 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.8 270.5 268.5 274.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 268.6 259.4 253.2 258.3 256.1 261.4 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.2 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.8 131.4 141.1 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 190.4 148.7 172.4 199.5 209.9 217.1 223.7 229.7 r 235.0 237.7 242.4 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 390.0 160.6 151.8 146.0 117.4 1,788.8 1,863.9 2,011.0 2,140.4 294.5 305.5 348.6 376.3 281.2 291.0 332.0 358.2 17.2 16.5 22.4 20.7 154.5 172.3 196.5 223.1 197.1 217.4 230.9 244.7 r 253.6 269.6 312.5 330.1 31.6 34.7 501.7 536.1 84.3 98.3 80.5 93.6 7.0 5.5 48.8 53.8 56.8 65.0 68.7 78.5 1 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2004 issued February 3, 2003. Net interest 136.0 r 138.6 151.8 169.0 r 184.3 Other 141.4 125.3 138.7 158.2 241.1 244.0 r 241.1 229.8 202.6 223.7 172.2 158.0 171.7 160.3 167.3 157.5 188.8 218.1 409.4 433.0 456.4 478.5 223.0 206.2 171.0 161.4 239.5 243.5 272.8 305.6 109.8 115.5 45.8 42.8 80.3 76.7 r 194.4 r 199.3 198.7 r 202.9 r 232.1 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 2002, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $36.6 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government current receipts Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals 1,197.3 1,293.7 1,383.7 1,499.1 1,625.5 1,749.7 1,867.2 2,033.9 2,008.4 .............. 1,823.2 1,847.1 1,876.3 1,922.4 2,009.6 2,022.9 2,049.1 2,054.1 2,072.9 2,072.3 1,896.0 1,992.3 1,884.7 1,883.7 1,874.0 .............. 509.9 547.8 591.8 670.0 751.9 834.9 903.3 1,009.0 1,010.9 850.3 875.0 891.2 911.2 935.8 984.5 997.2 1,020.5 1,033.6 1,057.9 1,059.8 900.4 1,025.5 874.8 856.6 837.5 832.5 138.5 156.7 179.3 190.6 203.0 204.2 213.0 223.8 170.2 ............ 208.9 211.4 211.7 219.9 233.7 230.5 222.1 208.9 186.9 183.2 168.0 142.9 170.5 180.2 181.1 ............ 85.3 95.2 93.0 95.1 93.7 97.4 100.2 109.1 110.3 110.3 97.5 98.2 100.8 104.4 107.0 109.5 109.8 110.1 112.3 112.2 109.5 107.3 108.4 110.2 112.4 110.1 Period Calendar year: 1993 .............................. 1994 .............................. 1995 .............................. 1996 .............................. 1997 .............................. 1998 .............................. 1999 .............................. 2000 .............................. 2001 .............................. 2002 p ............................. 1999: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV .......................... 2000: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV .......................... 2001: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV .......................... 2002: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV p ......................... Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 Federal Government current expenditures Contributions for social insurance 463.7 493.9 519.6 543.3 577.0 613.1 650.7 692.1 716.9 740.3 641.8 646.3 652.6 662.2 684.5 685.7 696.6 701.5 715.8 717.1 718.1 716.6 731.1 736.7 743.0 750.3 Total 1,471.5 1,506.0 1,575.7 1,635.9 1,678.8 1,705.9 1,755.3 1,827.1 1,936.4 2,073.9 1,734.5 1,734.2 1,758.9 1,793.6 1,786.4 1,825.7 1,835.9 1,860.3 1,899.1 1,927.8 1,947.7 1,971.0 2,030.5 2,079.3 2,074.6 2,111.2 Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments 442.6 439.7 439.2 445.3 456.9 453.1 471.6 493.3 528.4 586.3 465.5 461.6 473.4 486.0 480.0 501.3 494.2 497.7 517.3 524.9 527.9 543.6 566.3 581.0 589.8 608.0 597.9 618.6 652.1 691.6 717.5 730.6 745.8 779.5 842.2 930.7 739.1 743.2 743.9 756.9 758.5 774.6 781.3 803.5 816.3 832.2 849.3 870.9 916.9 927.6 934.1 944.4 162.6 174.5 184.5 190.4 196.8 210.3 231.0 247.5 277.4 305.7 224.9 222.2 234.9 242.0 239.4 242.2 253.8 254.6 266.8 281.9 271.4 289.4 292.3 309.6 305.0 315.8 Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 230.2 239.6 267.5 273.6 276.2 278.5 263.8 263.0 238.1 208.2 265.3 264.2 262.1 263.7 264.2 264.1 263.0 260.5 254.1 243.1 233.6 221.6 208.5 214.9 205.8 203.8 38.2 33.6 32.4 35.1 31.5 33.4 43.0 43.8 50.3 43.0 39.6 42.8 44.6 44.9 44.2 43.5 43.6 44.0 44.6 45.6 65.5 45.5 46.6 46.3 39.9 39.0 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 Current surplus or deficit (¥), national income and product accounts ¥274.1 ¥212.3 ¥192.0 ¥136.8 ¥53.3 43.8 111.9 206.9 72.0 .................... 88.7 112.9 117.4 128.8 223.2 197.2 213.2 193.8 173.8 144.4 ¥51.7 21.3 ¥145.8 ¥195.6 ¥200.7 .................... INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1997=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1993 .................................... 1994 .................................... 1995 .................................... 1996 .................................... 1997 .................................... 1998 .................................... 1999 .................................... 2000 .................................... 2001 ..................................... 2002 p ................................... 2001: Nov ......................... Dec .......................... 2002: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May .......................... June ......................... July .......................... Aug .......................... Sept ......................... Oct ........................... Nov ........................... Dec p ......................... 1 Data Canada Japan 80.9 84.2 85.2 89.4 89.3 93.5 93.2 94.7 100.0 100.0 105.6 103.5 110.1 108.8 115.3 115.0 111.2 111.0 110.5 .............. 108.8 108.9 108.3 108.0 r 110.2 109.0 r 111.7 109.2 109.6 111.5 r 113.0 110.1 110.4 112.2 r 112.1 110.8 r 113.6 111.6 111.3 113.5 r 111.2 r 113.9 r 114.1 110.7 110.8 114.0 110.6 .............. France Germany Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom Italy United States 1 90.4 89.3 92.1 88.1 91.1 91.5 93.2 95.0 93.5 96.0 94.4 95.4 95.8 98.2 97.7 96.6 96.3 96.5 96.4 98.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 93.5 105.2 104.2 101.1 101.0 r 105.7 94.1 107.3 101.1 101.8 99.5 111.0 112.3 105.9 103.4 92.3 112.0 112.9 104.6 101.2 91.0 ............ .............. .............. .............. r 101.7 86.6 110.7 109.8 98.5 87.1 110.4 109.9 103.3 98.4 87.3 110.6 111.0 103.5 97.5 r 110.6 87.9 110.8 103.5 97.4 88.4 111.7 110.9 102.8 97.6 88.7 111.8 111.5 101.9 98.5 92.3 111.5 110.2 103.5 99.4 92.1 111.5 112.4 102.5 95.2 r 103.1 92.4 111.0 111.4 98.3 r 113.0 r 103.5 93.6 111.4 98.1 r 103.0 93.3 110.9 112.1 97.8 r 110.5 r 102.4 r 97.9 93.1 r 111.0 r 92.1 112.3 113.1 103.1 97.4 91.7 ............ .............. .............. .............. relate to all urban consumers. 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 177.4 176.7 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3 180.9 Canada Japan 147.9 148.2 151.4 153.8 156.3 157.8 160.5 164.9 169.1 172.9 168.2 168.4 168.8 169.8 171.0 172.0 172.3 172.9 173.8 174.5 174.5 175.1 175.5 174.9 France r 118.6 119.3 119.2 119.3 121.5 122.2 121.8 121.0 120.1 119.0 119.4 119.3 119.0 118.4 118.7 119.0 119.4 119.3 118.8 119.2 119.2 118.9 118.9 118.9 Germany Italy 127.6 131.1 133.4 135.2 137.8 139.1 139.9 142.6 146.2 148.0 146.0 146.2 147.5 147.9 148.2 148.3 148.3 148.2 148.4 148.3 148.2 148.2 147.6 147.8 187.7 195.3 205.6 213.8 218.2 222.5 226.2 231.9 238.3 244.3 240.0 240.2 241.2 242.0 242.6 243.2 243.9 244.1 244.5 244.9 245.3 245.9 246.7 247.0 143.4 145.8 148.4 151.4 153.2 154.2 155.0 157.6 160.2 163.3 160.7 160.8 161.6 161.8 162.5 163.1 163.3 163.3 163.3 163.6 163.9 164.2 164.2 164.5 United Kingdom 165.3 169.3 175.2 179.4 185.1 191.4 194.3 200.1 203.6 207.0 204.0 203.7 203.6 204.2 205.0 206.4 207.0 207.0 206.7 207.3 208.7 209.0 209.4 209.7 Note.—See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 BOP basis Total, Census basis 1 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonand plies except cles, food) bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. 439.6 456.9 502.9 575.2 612.1 678.4 670.4 684.0 772.0 718.8 448.2 465.1 512.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 682.1 695.8 781.9 729.1 40.3 40.6 42.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 46.4 46.0 47.9 49.4 109.1 111.8 121.4 146.2 147.7 158.2 148.3 147.5 172.6 160.1 175.9 181.7 205.0 233.0 253.0 294.5 299.4 310.8 356.9 321.7 47.0 52.4 57.8 61.8 65.0 74.0 72.4 75.3 80.4 75.4 2001: Nov ...... Dec ...... 2002: Jan ....... Feb ....... Mar ....... Apr ........ May ...... June ..... July ...... Aug ....... Sept ...... Oct r ...... Nov p ..... 56.0 55.0 55.0 54.7 55.0 56.8 57.3 58.2 59.1 58.3 58.3 57.4 58.0 56.9 55.9 55.7 55.5 56.0 57.7 58.3 59.1 60.0 59.3 59.1 58.3 58.9 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.3 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.3 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.6 24.3 23.5 23.7 23.3 24.1 24.1 24.3 25.1 25.3 25.0 25.2 24.6 24.5 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.3 1 Total BOP basis 51.4 536.5 54.7 589.4 60.0 668.7 64.4 749.4 70.1 803.1 77.4 876.5 80.3 917.1 80.9 1,030.0 89.4 1,224.4 88.3 1,145.9 6.9 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 90.1 86.5 88.5 91.0 91.6 97.0 99.0 98.9 98.1 100.6 99.6 96.9 102.3 IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 1 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 532.7 580.7 663.3 743.5 795.3 869.7 911.9 1,024.6 1,218.0 1,141.0 27.6 27.9 31.0 33.2 35.7 39.7 41.2 43.6 46.0 46.6 138.6 145.6 162.1 181.8 204.5 213.8 200.1 221.4 299.0 273.9 134.3 152.4 184.4 221.4 228.1 253.3 269.5 295.7 347.0 298.0 91.8 102.4 118.3 123.8 128.9 139.8 148.7 179.0 195.9 189.8 122.7 134.0 146.3 159.9 172.0 193.8 217.0 241.9 281.8 284.3 176.9 185.9 201.0 219.2 240.0 256.6 262.3 273.2 292.2 279.3 116.5 122.3 131.9 141.4 150.9 166.3 182.5 189.4 218.5 210.4 ¥84.5 ¥115.6 ¥150.6 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥180.5 ¥229.8 ¥328.8 ¥436.1 ¥411.9 ¥96.9 ¥132.5 ¥165.8 ¥174.2 ¥191.0 ¥198.1 ¥246.7 ¥346.0 ¥452.4 ¥427.2 60.4 63.7 69.2 77.8 89.2 90.4 79.8 83.8 73.7 68.9 ¥36.5 ¥68.8 ¥96.7 ¥96.4 ¥101.8 ¥107.8 ¥166.9 ¥262.2 ¥378.7 ¥358.3 89.9 86.4 88.2 90.8 91.3 96.7 98.7 98.6 97.9 100.3 99.3 96.6 102.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.4 19.6 18.3 18.9 19.0 19.9 22.8 23.1 22.5 22.8 23.8 23.4 24.5 24.1 22.8 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.6 22.2 24.3 15.8 15.5 15.3 16.4 16.0 17.0 17.7 17.2 17.2 17.6 17.7 16.8 17.5 23.6 22.2 23.2 24.4 23.7 25.0 25.6 26.1 25.6 26.9 26.3 25.0 27.8 21.9 22.5 22.5 22.7 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.9 24.6 24.9 25.2 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.4 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.4 20.6 21.0 ¥33.0 ¥30.5 ¥32.5 ¥35.2 ¥35.3 ¥39.0 ¥40.4 ¥39.5 ¥37.8 ¥41.0 ¥40.2 ¥38.3 ¥43.1 ¥34.1 ¥31.5 ¥33.5 ¥36.4 ¥36.6 ¥40.1 ¥41.7 ¥40.6 ¥39.0 ¥42.3 ¥41.3 ¥39.6 ¥44.3 4.2 4.3 3.6 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 ¥29.9 ¥27.3 ¥29.8 ¥33.1 ¥32.6 ¥35.8 ¥36.9 ¥36.6 ¥35.2 ¥38.1 ¥37.1 ¥35.2 ¥40.1 includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 2002, the goods deficit rose to $123.2 billion, from $122.5 billion in the second quarter. The current account deficit fell to $127.0 billion in the third quarter, from $127.6 billion in the second quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Period Exports 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... Imports 439,631 ¥536,528 456,943 ¥589,394 502,859 ¥668,690 575,204 ¥749,374 612,113 ¥803,113 678,366 ¥876,485 670,416 ¥917,112 683,965 ¥1,029,987 771,994 ¥1,224,417 718,762 ¥1,145,927 Services Balance on goods Net military transactions 2 3 ¥96,897 ¥1,448 ¥132,451 1,385 ¥165,831 2,570 ¥174,170 4,600 ¥191,000 5,385 ¥198,119 4,968 ¥246,696 5,220 ¥346,022 2,470 ¥452,423 421 ¥427,165 ¥2,978 Net travel and transportation 19,969 19,714 16,305 21,772 25,015 22,152 10,145 7,113 2,472 ¥1,926 2000: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 184,486 191,411 199,641 196,456 ¥290,941 ¥303,581 ¥314,779 ¥315,116 ¥106,455 ¥112,170 ¥115,138 ¥118,660 ¥74 412 ¥199 282 825 1,486 ¥31 189 2001: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 193,284 184,846 173,274 167,358 ¥306,316 ¥292,565 ¥279,025 ¥268,021 ¥113,032 ¥742 ¥107,719 ¥285 ¥105,751 ¥706 ¥100,663 ¥1,245 903 ¥1,219 ¥255 ¥1,357 2002: I .............. II ............. III p .......... 164,649 172,426 175,727 ¥271,073 ¥294,893 ¥298,903 ¥106,424 ¥1,498 ¥122,467 ¥1,679 ¥123,176 ¥2,083 ¥544 ¥863 ¥808 Income receipts and payments Other services, net Balance on goods and services Balance on current account 132,056 134,159 165,438 211,502 225,846 260,558 259,366 290,536 352,997 283,771 ¥109,101 ¥110,255 ¥148,744 ¥186,880 ¥201,743 ¥240,371 ¥251,751 ¥272,398 ¥331,215 ¥269,389 22,954 23,904 16,694 24,622 24,103 20,187 7,615 18,138 21,782 14,382 ¥35,013 ¥37,637 ¥38,260 ¥34,057 ¥40,081 ¥40,794 ¥44,509 ¥48,757 ¥53,442 ¥49,463 ¥48,515 ¥82,523 ¥118,244 ¥105,823 ¥117,821 ¥128,372 ¥203,827 ¥292,856 ¥410,341 ¥393,371 18,532 ¥87,172 18,345 ¥91,927 17,042 ¥98,326 16,931 ¥101,258 84,083 90,183 88,129 90,603 ¥79,260 ¥83,994 ¥84,055 ¥83,909 4,823 6,189 4,074 6,694 ¥11,749 ¥12,349 ¥12,925 ¥16,418 ¥94,098 ¥98,087 ¥107,177 ¥110,982 ¥97,160 ¥93,324 ¥79,778 ¥88,028 83,036 74,846 67,152 58,737 ¥81,990 ¥68,840 ¥66,345 ¥52,216 1,046 6,006 807 6,521 ¥11,608 ¥11,916 ¥12,360 ¥13,579 ¥107,722 ¥99,234 ¥91,331 ¥95,086 12,974 ¥95,492 15,696 ¥109,313 15,206 ¥110,861 58,096 60,722 63,472 ¥59,042 ¥66,009 ¥66,431 ¥946 ¥5,287 ¥2,959 ¥16,016 ¥13,011 ¥13,221 ¥112,454 ¥127,611 ¥127,041 15,711 15,899 26,934 15,237 3 Quarterly 2 Transfers 4 Includes 36 Payments Unilateral current transfers, net 4 ¥36,457 ¥68,791 ¥96,678 ¥96,388 ¥101,843 ¥107,765 ¥166,933 ¥262,237 ¥378,681 ¥358,290 41,918 42,562 50,278 51,410 58,757 63,234 64,398 74,202 70,849 73,779 1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). Receipts Balance on income data are not seasonally adjusted. transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the financial account, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $46.4 billion in the third quarter of 2002, in contrast to an increase of $68.7 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $8.3 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $32.2 billion in the second quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Financial account Period Capital account transactions, net 3 U.S.-owned assets abroad, net [increase/financial outflow (¥)] Total U.S. official reserve assets 3 5 Other U.S. Government assets 3 Statistical discrepancy Foreign-owned assets in the U.S., net [increase/financial inflow (+)] U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets 3 Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 5 (unadjusted, end of period) ................................... ................................... ................................... .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. 612 ¥88 ¥469 372 693 350 704 ¥3,340 837 826 ¥74,410 ¥200,552 ¥176,056 ¥352,376 ¥413,923 ¥487,599 ¥359,760 ¥477,569 ¥606,489 ¥370,962 3,901 ¥1,379 5,346 ¥9,742 6,668 ¥1,010 ¥6,783 8,747 ¥290 ¥4,911 ¥1,667 ¥351 ¥390 ¥984 ¥989 68 ¥422 2,750 ¥941 ¥486 ¥76,644 ¥198,822 ¥181,012 ¥341,650 ¥419,602 ¥486,657 ¥352,555 ¥489,066 ¥605,258 ¥365,565 170,663 282,040 305,989 438,562 551,096 706,809 423,569 742,479 1,015,986 752,806 40,477 71,753 39,583 109,880 126,724 19,036 ¥19,903 43,666 37,640 5,224 130,186 210,287 266,406 328,682 424,372 687,773 443,472 698,813 978,346 747,582 ¥48,350 1,123 ¥11,220 19,265 ¥20,045 ¥91,188 139,314 31,286 7 10,701 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 71,323 73,442 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 81,761 71,516 67,647 68,654 2000: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2001: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2002: I ............................. II ............................ III p ......................... 210 206 207 214 208 207 206 205 208 200 223 ¥228,888 ¥110,470 ¥93,029 ¥174,104 ¥215,815 ¥80,036 24,978 ¥100,088 ¥25,918 ¥131,079 23,920 ¥554 2,020 ¥346 ¥1,410 190 ¥1,343 ¥3,559 ¥199 390 ¥1,843 ¥1,416 ¥127 ¥570 114 ¥358 77 ¥783 77 143 133 42 172 ¥228,207 ¥111,920 ¥92,797 ¥172,336 ¥216,082 ¥77,910 28,460 ¥100,032 ¥26,441 ¥129,278 25,164 240,723 245,787 244,933 284,544 302,510 181,610 17,889 250,797 113,496 204,307 148,510 22,711 6,563 12,904 ¥4,538 4,087 ¥20,831 16,882 5,086 7,641 47,252 9,319 218,012 239,224 232,029 289,082 298,423 202,441 1,007 245,711 105,855 157,055 139,191 82,053 ¥37,436 ¥44,934 328 20,819 ¥2,547 48,258 ¥55,828 24,668 54,183 ¥45,612 7,951 ¥838 ¥10,675 3,566 7,691 875 ¥10,286 1,721 10,019 1,256 ¥14,063 70,789 67,955 66,256 67,647 64,222 64,847 70,963 68,654 67,574 74,696 75,860 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Price, Costs, and Profits ...................................................................................................................... National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................. Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 2003 84–684
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