Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1979
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96th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators January 1979 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1979 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) LEE H HAMILTON (Indiana) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) ROGER W. JEPSEN (Iowa) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman LYLE E. GRAMLEY WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS [PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts draun by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C 20402 According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product rose $74.7 billion or 14.7 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 6.1 percent from the third quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at an 8.1 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF. DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 1971 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Go^^ernment purchases of goods and services Exporl:s and imj>orts of goocIs and ser vices Gross private domestic investment Net exports Exports Imports Total Federal Total National defense l Nondefense State and local Final sales 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 ___ 1974 1975___ 1976 1977_ _ 1978 *___ 868.5 535.9 935. 5 579.7 982.4 618.8 1, 063. 4 668. 2 1, 171. 1 733.0 1, 306. 6 809. 9 1, 412. 9 889.6 1, 528. 8 979. 1 1, 700. 1 1, 090. 2 1, 887. 2 1, 206. 5 2, 106. 6 1, 339. 7 131.5 146. 2 140. 8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214. 6 190. 9 243. 0 297.8 344.5 2.3 1.8 3.9 1. 6 3.3 7. 1 6.0 20.4 7.4 -11. 1 -11.8 49.9 54.7 62.5 65. 6 72.7 101. 6 137.9 147.3 163.2 175. 5 205.2 47.7 52. 9 58.5 64. 0 75. 9 94.4 131. 9 126.9 155.7 186.6 217.0 198.7 207.9 218.9 233. 7 253. 1 269. 5 302.7 338. 4 359. 5 394.0 434.2 98.0 97.5 95.6 96.2 102. 1 102.2 111. 1 123. 1 129.9 145. 1 154.0 76. 9 76. 3 73.5 70. 2 73. 5 73.5 77.0 83.7 86.8 94.3 99.5 21.2 21.2 22. 1 26. 0 28.6 28.7 34. 1 39.4 43.1 50. 8 54.5 100.7 110.4 123.2 137. 5 151.0 167.3 191.5 215.4 229. 6 248. 9 280.2 860.8 926.2 978.6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 6 1, 404. 0 1, 539. 6 1, 689. 9 1, 871. 6 2, 090. 9 1977:1 !!___ III__ IV___ 1, 806. 8 1, 167. 7 1, 867. 0 1, 188. 6 1, 916. 8 1, 214. 5 1, 958. 1 1, 255. 2 272. 5 295. 6 309.7 313. 5 -8. 5 -5.9 -7.0 -23.2 170.9 178. 1 180.8 172. 1 179.4 184.0 187. 8 195.2 375.0 388.8 399. 5 412.5 138.3 142.9 146. 8 152. 2 91.9 93. 7 94.4 97. 1 46.4 49.3 52.4 55. 1 236.7 245.9 252.7 260.3 1, 796. 5 1, 850. 0 1, 894. 9 1, 945. 0 1978:1 1, 992. 0 1? 276. 7 II.-- 2, 087. 5 1, 322. 9 III_,_ 2, 136. 1 1, 356. 9 IV » 2, 210. 8 1, 402. 2 322. 7 345.4 350. 1 359.9 -24. 1 -5.5 -10.7 -6.9 181. 7 205.4 210. 1 223.5 205.8 210.9 220.8 230. 4 416.7 424. 7 439. 8 455.6 15L 5 147. 2 154.0 163. 4 97.9 98. 6 99.6 102. 1 53.6 48. 6 54. 5 61.3 265.2 277. 6 285. 8 292.2 1, 975. 3 2, 067. 4 2, 122. 5 25 198. 4 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 33. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates) Period Gross iprivate dcttnestic Ex,sorts of gc>ods iiivestmenl Perand serviceSS sonal eonGross Change national sumpNontion Resi- in busiproduct xr**f JNet Exports Imports expend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Govern!nent pure bases of good s and ser vices Total Federal State and local Final sales 1, 051. 8 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 217. 8 1, 202. 3 1, 271. 0 1, 332. 7 1, 385. 1 633.4 655.4 668. 9 691.9 733.0 767.7 760.7 7746 819.4 857.7 891.2 108.0 114.3 110.0 108.0 116.8 131.0 130.6 113.6 118.9 129.8 139.9 42.8 43.2 40.4 52. 2 62.0 59.7 45.0 38.8 47.8 57.7 59.7 8.7 10.6 43 6.6 9.4 16.5 8.0 -9.8 6.7 8.9 10.4 -0.4 -1.3 1.4 -.6 -3.3 7.6 15.9 22.6 15.4 9.5 8.6 58.5 62.2 67.1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93.0 90.0 95.9 98.2 107.3 58.9 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 77.1 67.5 80.5 88.7 98.7 259.2 256.7 250.2 249. 4 253. 1 252.5 257.7 262.6 262.8 269.2 275.2 128,3 121, 8 110.7 103.9 102.1 96.6 95.8 96.5 96.6 101.6 100.5 130.9 1349 139.5 145.5 151,0 155.9 161,8 166. 1 166.2 167.6 1747 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 I, 209. 9 1, 212. 1 1, 264 4 1, 323. 8 1, 374 7 1977: 1-- 1, 306. 7 II— 1, 325. 5 III— 1, 343. 9 IV... 1, 354 5 846.6 849. 5 858.0 876.6 126.8 129. 1 130.8 132.5 53.5 58.0 58.8 60.3 5,8 10.0 12.2 7.5 11.2 11.0 12.5 3. 1 97.1 98.9 100.8 96.0 85.9 87.9 88.2 92.9 262.8 267.9 271.7 2745 98.7 101.3 102.9 103.6 164 1 166.6 168.8 170.9 1, 300. 9 1, 315. 5 1, 331. 7 1, 347. 1 1978:1.... 1, 354 2 II... 1, 382. 6 Ill— 1, 391. 4 IV*- 1, 412. 2 873.5 886.3 895.1 910.0 133. 8 140.5 141.7 143. 5 59.5 59.9 59.7 59.8 12.3 12.7 9.0 7.7 2.9 11.3 9.2 11.0 99. 1 108.4 109.0 112.6 96.2 97. 1 99.7 101.6 272. 1 271.9 276.7 280. 1 101.2 97. 1 100.4 103.3 170.8 1748 176.3 176.8 1, 341. 8 1, 369. 9 1, 382. 4 1, 404 5 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Gross national product Period Persona1 eonsumj>tion expenditures Total 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972. _ . 1973 . 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* Gross private dom estic invesi iment Nonres- ResiNonjjurabie durable Services idential dential fixed goods fixed TVi-__|_1- Expor ts and imports of goods and s<jrvices Goveranlent purchases <>f goods and scjrvices Exports Imports Federal State and local 82.57 86.72 91.36 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 ... 116.02 127. 15 133. 76 141. 61 .... 152. 09 846 88.5 92.5 96.6 100.0 105.5 116.9 126.4 133. 1 140. 7 150.3 90.7 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101.6 108.4 117.7 1244 129.5 136.6 85.3 89.4 93.6 96.6 100.0 107.9 123.8 133.4 138.2 145.0 155.0 82.0 86. 1 90.5 95. 8 100.0 1047 113.6 123.2 131.6 141.0 151.3 82.6 86.6 91.3 96.4 100.0 103.8 115.3 132.2 138.4 146.7 158.7 80.7 87.7 90.6 949 100.0 110. 8 122.3 132.8 142.5 159.4 178.7 85.3 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116.2 148.3 163.6 170. 1 178.7 191.2 80.9 83.3 89. 1 93.5 100.0 118.2 171.0 188.0 193.5 210.3 219.9 76.4 80. 0 86.4 92.6 100.0 105.8 115.9 127.5 134 4 142.7 153.2 76.9 81.9 88.3 94 5 100.0 107.3 118.4 129.7 138. 1 148.5 160.4 1977:1 II III IV 138. 27 140. 86 142. 63 144 56 137.9 139.9 141.6 143.2 128.4 128.9 129.5 130.9 142.4 1447 145.7 147.0 137.4 139.7 142.3 1444 142.5 145.0 147.9 151.2 152.3 157.6 160.6 166. 1 176.1 180.0 179.4 179.2 208.9 209.3 212. 9 210.2 140. 1 141. 1 142.7 146.9 1443 147.6 149.7 152.3 1978: 1 II III IV » 147. 10 150. 98 153. 52 156. 54 146.2 149.3 151.6 1541 133.1 135.7 137.8 139. 5 150.4 1544 156.2 158.9 147. 1 149.9 152.6 155. 3 153.6 156.7 160.6 163.7 168.6 175.7 182.6 187.9 183.3 189.4 192.8 198.4 213.8 217. 2 221.5 226.8 149.6 151.5 153.4 158.2 155.2 158.8 162. 1 165.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates) Gross national p roduct Constant (1972) dollars Current dol- Period lore 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978" - 1977: I II III IV 1978: I II III IV » ~ Implicit price deflator Gross domestic ] 3roduct Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index Current dol- Constant (1972) dollars 9.1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10. 1 11.6 8. 1 8.2 11.2 11.0 11.6 4.4 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.5 -1.4 -1.3 5.7 4.9 3. 9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.1 4. 1 5.8 9.7 9.6 5.2 5.9 7.4 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 6.0 9.9 9.4 5.6 6.2 7.5 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.6 6.3 7.6 9.1 7.8 5.0 8. 1 10. 1 11.5 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 11.6 4.4 2.6 g 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 -1. 1 5.6 4.8 3.9 13.7 14.0 11. 1 8.9 7.3 5.9 5.7 3,2 6.0 7.7 5. 1 5.5 6.6 7.3 4.6 6.5 7.0 7.4 4.7 6.8 13.3 13.9 11.2 9.5 7. 1 5.8 5.8 3.5 7. 1 20.6 9.6 14.7 -. 1 8.7 2.6 6. 1 7.2 11.0 6.9 8. 1 7. 1 10.8 7.6 8.5 7.0 11.0 7.6 8.7 6.7 20. 1 10. 2 14.6 —. 4 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Im- plicit price deflator 4.5 (1972 weights) 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 5.7 9.3 9.7 5.2 5.8 7.4 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.7 7.6 5.7 7.7 5. 1 5.8 6.4 7.4 4.5 6.7 6.8 7.5 4.6 7.0 7. 1 10.9 10.9 5.3 5. 1 4. 1 7.0 6. 1 ed price index 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 5.9 9.9 9.3 5.7 6.3 7.7 5. 1 8.3 3.0 Chain price index Fixedweight- 8. 1 4. 1 6. 1 7.1 7.5 8.4 7.0 11.0 7.6 8.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS Gross d omestic prodiict of nonfin ancial corp<>rate busi ness (billic>ns of doll ars) Period [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-do ilar cost a nd profit per unit of output (dollars) i Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption Comallowpenances Indirect sation Net with business of in3 capital taxes employ- terest conees sumption adjustment Current dollars 1972 dollars 452. 9 498.4 541.8 560.6 602.5 671. 0 752. 0 808.8 874. 1 988.5 1, 103. 2 1, 240. 5 545.8 581. 6 607.3 600.6 619. 3 671.0 720.4 695.0 680.0 730.0 769.3 810. 3 0.830 .857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1.044 1. 164 1.285 1.354 1.434 1.531 0.072 .074 .079 . 088 . 094 .093 .095 . 116 . 142 . 146 . 150 . 156 0.084 .089 . 094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 . 136 . 136 . 140 . 145 0.535 .553 .589 . 628 .645 .661 .699 .796 .848 .891 .952 1. 029 1, 048. 5 1977: 1 II... 1, 093. 3 Ill — 1, 124. 6 IV___ 1, 146. 3 750.2 766.9 776.7 783. 6 1.398 1.426 1.448 1.463 . 149 . 149 . 151 . 152 . 140 . 139 . 140 . 142 .932 .946 .955 .973 .043 .043 .044 .045 1, 161. 6 1978: I IL___ 1, 233. 0 IIL__ 1, 260. 6 783. 6 811.9 814. 9 1.482 1. 519 1.547 . 155 . 153 . 158 . 145 . 145 . 145 1.008 1.017 1.038 .046 .045 .046 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 8 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 1 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corpo rate profi ts with inventcDry valuat ion and capit al consuniption £idjustmen ts Total Profits tax liability Profits after4 tax ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 0.051 .058 . 055 .045 .048 .050 .055 .061 .060 .073 .077 . 085 0.072 .066 . 055 .041 .046 .057 .050 . 024 . 053 .066 .071 .070 6.873 7. 105 7. 139 7. 132 7.374 7.595 7.788 7.489 7.721 7.962 8. 057 3.676 3.929 4. 198 4.478 4.757 5.024 5.446 5.958 6.550 7.093 7.667 . 134 . 148 . 158 . 151 .075 .078 .076 .077 .059 . 070 .082 .074 7.991 8.025 8. 113 8. 103 7. 451 7.590 7.746 7.881 . 129 . 157 . 160 .071 .086 .086 .057 . 071 .074 8. 053 8. 139 8. 165 8. 117 8.281 8.471 0.016 0. 123 . 124 .017 . 022 . 109 .086 .028 .095 .029 . 107 .028 . 032 . 105 .086 .043 . 113 .045 .042 . 139 . 044 . 148 . 154 .046 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Propr ietors' mcom e with inventor y valuation anc l capital consulnption adjust ments ComNational income Period tion of employees * Farm 1968 1969 1970_ _— 1971. — — - - 1972_ ___ 1973 1974 1975 1976 _ 1977 1978*____ _ _ _ 714.4 519.8 571.4 767.9 609.2 798.4 650.3 858. 1 715. 1 951.9 1, 064. 6 799. 2 875.8 1, 136. 0 931. 1 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 2 1, 036. 8 1, 515. 3 1, 153. 4 1, 703. 6 1, 301. 2 Nonfarm Rental income of perwith capital consumption adjustment Corpor ate profit s with inventory va luation and capital cc nsumptio n adjustmtents Profits 5 with inv entory valuaibion adjustment and ^without c£tpital consum ption adjiistment Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Total Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 12.0 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32. 0 25.4 23.5 18.4 20. 2 25.1 51.4 52.3 51.2 53. 4 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63. 5 70.2 79.5 87.8 18.6 18. 1 18.6 20. 1 21.5 21. 6 21. 4 22.4 22.5 22.5 23.4 85.8 81.4 67.9 77.2 92. 1 99. 1 83.6 95. 9 127.0 144. 2 160.0 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107. 9 141. 4 159. 1 178. 1 85.6 83. 4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126. 9 120. 4 155.9 173.9 202.4 -3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18. 6 -40.4 -12.4 14.5 -14.8 -24. 3 3.7 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -2.9 -12.0 -14.4 -14.9 -18. 1 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 69.0 78. 6 84.3 95.4 106. 1 1977:1 II III IV .... 1, 447. 5 1, 499. 3 1, 537. 6 1, 576. 9 9 5 8 7 19. 4 20.0 16.5 25.1 76. 1 78.9 80.8 82.3 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.7 129.9 143.7 154.8 148.2 144. 5 158.5 169.9 163.5 164.8 175. 1 177.5 178.3 -20.3 — 16. 6 -7.7 -14.8 -14.6 -14. 8 -15.0 -15.3 91.7 93.7 97.3 99.0 1978:1 II III_ IV * 1, 603. 1 1, 241. 0 _ 1, 688. 1 1, 287. 8 1, 728. 4 1, 317. 1 1, 358. 9 21.9 24.0 25.0 29.5 83. 1 86. 1 89.6 92.4 22.8 22.2 24.3 24. 4 132. 6 163.4 165.2 148.7 180.6 184.5 172. 1 205. 5 205.4 -23.5 -24. 9 -20. 9 -27.8 -16. 1 -17.2 -19.3 19.9 101.7 104.6 107.4 110.8 1, 107. 1, 140. 1, 165. 1, 199. i Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] D urable goo ds Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable1 goods Motor vehicles and parts 1968 535.9 1969 579.7 1970 618.8 1971 668.2 1972___ __ 733.0 1973 809. 9 1974 889.6 1975_ 979. 1 1976 1, 090. 2 1977 1, 206. 5 1978 * _ _ _ _ 1, 339. 7 80.0 85.5 84.9 97. 1 111.2 123.7 122.0 132.6 156. 6 178.4 197.6 35.8 37.7 349 43.8 50.6 55.2 48. 0 53.4 69.7 81. 5 89.7 32.6 35.0 36.7 39.4 44.8 50. 7 54.9 58.0 63.9 71.3 77.6 230.4 247.0 264.7 277.7 299. 3 333.8 376.3 408.9 442.6 479. 0 525.8 1977:1 II III IV 1, 167. 7 1, 188. 6 1, 214. 5 1, 255. 2 173.2 175. 6 177.4 187.2 81.3 81.2 79.5 84.0 68.0 69.9 72.0 75.3 1978:1 II III 1, 276. 7 1, 322. 9 1, 356. 9 1, 402. 2 183.5 197.8 199.5 209.6 84. 1 92.5 89.8 92.5 72. 1 76.5 78.9 82.9 Period iv » 1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars(naillions of u nits) Nondurable goods Furniture and household equipment Total nondurable1 goods Services Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 118.3 126. 1 136.3 140. 6 150.4 168. 1 189. 8 209. 6 225.8 245. 2 269. 2 41.8 45. 1 46.6 50.5 55. 1 61.3 65.3 70. 1 75. 7 81.5 88.9 18.4 20.4 22. 0 23. 4 24.9 27.8 36. 4 39.5 42.8 46. 5 51. 1 225. 6 247. 2 269. 1 293.4 322.4 352.3 391.3 437. 5 491.0 549. 2 616.3 8.6 8.5 7. 1 8.7 9.3 9. 7 7.5 7. 1 8. 6 9. 1 9.3 1.0 1. 1 1.3 1. 6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1. 6 1.5 2. 1 2.0 465." 9 473. 6 479.7 496.9 237. 5 244.5 246.4 252. 6 78.5 79.3 81.4 86.7 46. 1 46.2 46.0 47.5 528. 6 539. 4 557.5 571. 1 9.4 9.2 8.9 9.0 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.0 501.4 519.3 531.7 550. 8 257.7 267.8 272. 0 279.4 82.9 87.5 90.5 94.6 48.3 49. 1 51. 5 55.6 591. 8 605. 8 625.8 641.8 8.7 10. 0 9.3 9.2 2. 1 2. 1 2.0 1.9 Food Domestics Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $18.9 billion (annual rate) in December following revised increases of $17.6 billion in November and $23.7 billion in October. Wages and salaries rose $9.6 billion in December, compared with $11.7 billion in November. All other major types of income also rose in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 l',800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 600 600 400 400 ,, ' 200 200 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 100 100 80 80 60 60 M I I II I ! 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 i i i i 11 1 1 i n } I t I I I 1 1 I LI 1977 1976 1975 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1971 1972___ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at Wage s Total and Other Propriet 3TS* income personal salary labor income disburseincome1 2 Farm Nonfarm l ments seasonally adjusted annual rates] Rental income of persons 4 Dividends Less: PerNonPersonal Transfer sonal confarm pay- 5 tributions personal interest income ments for social income 8 insurance 859. 1 579.4 942.5 633.8 1, 052. 4 701.3 1, 154. 9 7646 1, 255. 5 805.9 1, 380. 9 890. 1 1, 529. 0 983.6 1, 707. 3 1, 100. 7 36.2 42.0 48.7 55.6 65. 1 77.0 90.4 105.9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23. 5 18.4 20.2 25. 1 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63. 5 70.2 79.5 87.8 20. 1 21. 5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22.5 22. 5 23.4 23.0 24.6 27.8 31.0 31.9 37. 9 43.7 49.3 69.3 74.6 84. 1 103.0 115.5 126.3 141.2 158.9 94. 1 104. 1 118.9 140.8 178.2 193. 9 208.8 226. 0 30. 8 34.2 42.2 47.7 50. 5 55. 5 61. 0 69.7 838. 0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1? 349. 5 1, 494. 4 1, 666. 5 1977: Dec—. 1, 609. 2 1, 027. 3 97.3 28.5 83.2 22.9 48. 3 147.3 217.2 62.8 1, 565. 5 1978: Jan 1, 615. 5 1, 038. 3 Feb.-. 1, 625. 0 1, 047. 4 M a r _ _ _ 1, 646. 3 1, 066. 6 Apr 1, 669. 4 1, 083. 9 May 1, 682. 1 1, 088. 4 June I, 695. 7 1, 098. 4 July 1, 719. 2 1, 108. 2 Aug_.__ 1, 731. 1 1, 111.3 Sept___ 1, 744. 7 1, 120. 1 Oct 1, 768. 4 1, 137. 5 Nov *>__ 1, 785. 9 1, 149. 2 Dec *>___ 1, 804. 8 1, 158. 8 98.7 100.0 101.3 102. 7 104.0 105.4 106. 7 107. 9 109. 1 110.4 111. 8 113. 1 25. 6 21.5 18.6 22. 0 24.8 25.3 24. 0 24. 9 26. 0 27. 1 28. 2 33.3 82.0 83.0 84.4 85.5 86. 1 86.7 88.4 90. 1 90.2 92.0 92.4 92. 8 23.0 22.8 22. 6 22. 3 22. 1 22. 1 24. 3 24. 3 24.2 24.3 24. 4 24. 4 46.8 47. 0^ 47.2 47.4 48. 0 49. 0 49. 2 50. 3 50. 7 51.3 51.8 52.6 149.6 151.4 153. 3 154.8 156.5 157.6 159.6 161. 9 163.6 165. 1 166.3 167.5 218. 1 219. 0 220. 3 219.7 221.3 220.8 229.0 230. 8 231.5 232.2 233.9 234.8 66. 5 67. 0 68. 0 68. 9 69. 0 69. 6 70. 3 70. 4 70.8 71. 6 72. 0 72.4 1, 574. 7 1, 588! 3 1? 612 5 1, 631. 9 1, 641. 8 1, 654. 7 1, 679, 4 1, 690. 3 1, 702" 6 1, 725 1 1,- 741. 4 1, 755. 1 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs uoni compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. 5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter. BiaiONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE) DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME -PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 3,000 2,000 2,000 1970 1978 1971 * SEA50NAUY ADJUSTED ANNUM KATES SCWCT, KPAJTtMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less: Personal tax Persoiial and income nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC AOTOEHS Less: Personal outlays ' Per c apita dispc sable persona income Equals: Personal saving Current dollars Billions of d allars 1970 801.3 115.3 1971 859.1 116.3 1972 942.5 141.2 1973 1, 052. 4 150.8 1974. . .. 1, 154. 9 170.3 19751, 255. 5 168. 8 1976 1, 380. 9 196.5 1977 1, 529. 0 226.0 1978" 1, 707. 3 256. 2 685.9 742.8 801.3 901.7 984.6 1, 086. 7 1,184.4 1, 303. 0 1, 451. 2 1972 dollars Per cap>ita personal C(msumption expenditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change Saving in real as perper cent of Popula capita dispostion able dispos(thouperable sands) personal sonal income income Dollars 635.4 685.5 751. 9 831.3 913.0 1, 003. 0 1, 116. 3 1, 236. 1 1, 374. 4 50.6 57.3 49.4 70.3 71.7 83. 6 68.0 66. 9 76.7 3,348 O, Ooo 3,837 4,285 4,646 5,088 5,504 6,009 6,640 3,619 3,714 3,837 4,062 3,973 4, 025 4,136 4,271 4,418 3,020 3, 227 3,510 3,849 4,197 4,584 5, 066 5,564 6, 130 3,265 3,342 3, 510 3,648 3,589 3,627 3,808 3, 955 4, 078 3.-0 2.6 3.3 5.9 -2.2 1. 3 2.8 3.3 3.4 7.4 7.7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.7 5.7 5. 1 5.3 204, 87 207, 05 208, 84 210, 41 211,94 213, 56 215, 19 216, 85 218, 55 Seasonally ad; usted ann ual rates 1977: 1_— 1 II— I III.. 1 IV.. 1 470. 7 508. 6 543. 7 593. 0 222.7 223. 3 224.6 233.3 1, 248. 0 1, 285. 3 1, 319. 1 1, 359. 6 1, 195. 8 1, 217. 8 1, 244. 8 1, 285. 9 52.2 67.5 74.3 73. 7 5,772 5,934 6,077 6,250 4,185 4,241 4,293 4,365 5,401 5,487 5, 595 5,770 3,916 3,922 3,953 4,030 1.1 5.5 5. 0 6.9 4.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 216, 216, 217, 217, 20 60 07 54 1978:1 1 628.9 237.3 1, 391. 6 1, 309. 2 II __ I 682.4 249. 1 1, 433. 3 1, 357. 0 III__ 1 731. 7 263. 2 1, 468. 4 1, 392. 5 82. 4 76.3 76.0 72. 3 6,387 6,566 6,712 6,893 4,370 4,399 4,428 4,474 5, 6, 6, 6, 4,009 4, 060 4, 092 4, 150 .5 2.7 2.7 4. 2 5. 9 5.3 5. 2 4. 8 217, 218, 218, 219, 89' 29( 76! 25< IV- 1 786. 4 275. 0 1, 511. 4 1, 439. 2 ' Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 1 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the period. 859 060 203 395 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter net farm income before inventory adjustment rose $4.9 billion (annual rate) while income after inventory adjustment rose $5.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAL1) 120 120 100 100 •GROSS FARM INCOME BEFORE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 80 80 60 60 NET FARM INCOME AFTER INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 40 40 **»./ V- 20 20 r**« ' 10 « ' 1970 1 1971 1972 1973 i -L. L. 1974 1975 1977 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE:" DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 118.3 123.0 121. 3 133.0 104.6 109.3 108. 0 118.0 * Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 32 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 10 L. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona I income received Income r€jceived frc>m farmin g by tota farm population Gross income be: ore mven tory adjustnlent Net t(> farm oper ators Casl i receipts from Period From From From Producrnarketing s all farm nonfarm tion ex- Before After sources sources sources Tntftl 1 Livepenses inven- invenstock tory tory Total Crops and adjust- adjust-2 products ment ment Billioris of doll a rs 1971 28.8 15.3 60.6 13.5 52. 9 30.6 13.2 14.6 22.3 47.4 1972 34.6 16.9 70. 1 61.2 17.8 35.7 18.7 25.5 17.8 52.3 1973 29.2 48.9 19.7 95.5 87. 1 41. 1 45.9 33.3 29.9 65.6 1974 45. 2 23.4 92. 4 100.0 21.8 41. 4 51. 1 72.2 26. 1 27.7 1975 22. 7 21.9 96.9 88.2 44.5 43. 0 21. 1 45. 1 24.5 75.9 1976 41.2 24. 4 16.9 104. 1 46.2 94.5 21. 1 18.8 48.3 83.0 1977 43.0 18.3 108. 1 96. 1 24.7 47. 6 48. 5 20. 1 20.6 88.0 1978 9 53.2 28.3 123.9 24.8 110.0 58.0 52.0 28. 1 28.3 95.8 1977:1 108. 1 97.6 46.3 51.3 87.5 19.6 20.6 II 106.7 95.7 46. 6 49. 1 19.7 20. 2 87.0 III___ 102.7 91.3 47.8 43.5 16.8 16.7 86.0 IV 114.8 99.6 49.5 50.1 25.5 91.4 23.4 1978:1 II__ III___ IV p J 1978 52.7 57.4 57.7 64.0 51.9 51.9 50.3 54.0 92.5 95.0 94.5 101.3 25.8 28.0 26. 8 31.7 26.3 28.0 26. 8 32.0 Net incc>me per farm aifter inventory ad3 justmeitit Current 1967 dollars dollars 4 Dol lars 5,042 6,526 11, 813 9,349 8,845 6,848 7,592 10, 590 7,240 7,460 6,210 9, 420 4, 157 5,208 8, 875 6,330 5,487 4,016 4, 183 5,420 4,090 4, 130 3,390 5,080 9,840 10, 480 10, 030 11, 980 5,220 5,420 5,070 5,930 * Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Note.—Data revised beginning 1978. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to current data, profits before tax declined slightly while after tax-profits fell $1.3 billion. WLUONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 n 240 40 40 -. 1971 1979 COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profit s (before tax) wit!Li inventc >ry valu*ition adjustn lent l Period Domes=tic indu stries N onfinam )iaJ Total 2 Total 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 __ 1978 v 1977: I II. __ III IV 1978: I__ ___ . II III IV* 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97. 2 86.5 107.9 141. 4 159. 1 178. 1 144.5 158.5 169.9 163.5 148.7 180.6 184.5 78.9 74.2 62.6 72.4 84.7 90.4 76.9 101.8 133.2 149. 5 168. 1 134.8 148. 1 159.5 155.6 139.2 168.9 175.4 Financial Total3 10.4 11.3 12.6 14. 1 15.4 16.2 14.4 13. 0 17.5 20.9 25.4 19.7 19.9 21. 9 21. 9 22.7 24.3 26.0 68. 5 62.9 50. 1 58.2 69.3 74. 1 62.5 88.9 115.6 128.6 142.8 115. 1 128. 1 137.6 133.7 116.6 144.6 149.4 Manufacturmg 41.2 36.8 27. 1 32.4 40.6 44. 1 36.6 48.3 65.6 74.7 84.7 66.4 77.4 74.7 80.2 69.8 87.8 87. 1 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 8 Wholesale and retail trade 10. 1 10. 1 9.4 11.7 13.3 14.7 12. 9 20.7 24. 0 24.0 20.6 22. 8 30.6 22. 1 16.7 22. 0 25.8 2 3 Pro fits after tax Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 85.6 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 126.9 120.4 155.9 173.9 202.4 164.8 175. 1 177.5 178.3 172. 1 205.5 205.4 39. 4 39.7 34.5 37.7 41.5 48.7 52.4 49.8 64.3 71. 8 84. 1 68.3 72.3 72. 8 73.9 70.0 85.0 86.2 46.2 43.8 37.0 44. 3 54.6 67. 1 74.5 70.6 91.7 102. 1 118. 3 96.5 102.8 104. 8 104.4 102. 1 120.5 119.2 21.9 22.6 22. 9 23. 0 24.6 27.8 31. 0 31.9 37.9 43.7 49.3 41.5 42. 7 44. 1 46.3 47.0 48. 1 50. 1 51. 9 24.2 21.2 14. 1 21.3 30.0 39.3 43. 6 38.7 53.8 58.4 69. 1 55.0 60. 1 60.6 58. 1 55. 1 72.4 69. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 -40.4 -12.4 -14.5 — 14.8 -24.3 -20.3 -16.6 -7.7 -14.8 -23.5 -24.9 -20.9 -27.8 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, business fixed investment rose $7.5 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays rose $3.1 billion and producers* durable equipment purchases increased $4.4 billion. Residential investment outlays increased $3.5 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $12.4 billion, down $1.2 billion from the third quarter level. BILLI DNS OF DOLt.ARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILUONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 180 380 -GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT" -NONRESIDEhJTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT - 1 A ft 340 1AO - 300 ^^ ^S* ^^ PR ODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT 260 S~^ r inn 220 - — - — '" 200 180 I I I BIIUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 130 STRUCTURES - RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTS^ENT 1«5n 110 100 90 - y on 70 £t\ r' ^^ I - - / 1975 |. I TT7 I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 BILL IONS OF DOl.LARS* 40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INN^ENTORIES — fOr^— 20 - - - •20 -^ An Cft <^l I /' i i i \ 1976 I I 1977 • I I• I I 1978 I I ' I I 1975 I 1979 I l I 1976 I I I 1977 i i i 1 1978 1 1 1979 *5EASONAllY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresident ial fixed investmcmt Period 1968 1969___ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975____ 1976 1977 1978 * _ _ _ 1977:1 II III IY 1978:1 II III IV 9 Gross private domestic investment 131.5 146.2 140.8 160. 0 188.3 220. 0 214.6 190.9 243.0 297.8 344.5 272.5 295.6 309.7 313.5 322.7 345.4 350. 1 359.9 Strucjtures Total 89.3 98. 9 100.5 104. 1 116.8 136. 0 150.6 150. 2 164.6 190.4 222. 0 180.6 187.2 193. 5 200.3 205.6 220. 1 227.5 235.0 Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 31. 6 35.7 37.7 39. 3 42.5 49.0 54. 5 53.8 57.3 63.9 77.5 59.3 63. 4 65.4 67.4 68.5 76.6 80.9 84.0 30.4 34. 3 36. 1 37.8 41. 1 46.9 51.8 51.3 54.7 61.0 74.3 56.4 60.4 62. 7 64.5 65.2 73.4 78.0 80.8 57.7 63.3 62.8 64.7 74. 3 87.0 96.2 96.4 107.3 126.5 144.5 121.4 123.8 128. 1 132.8 137. 1 143.5 146. 6 151. 0 53.4 58.9 58. 1 59.9 69. 1 80. 1 88. 2 87.4 97. 5 116.7 133.8 111.0 113.8 118.6 123.4 127.2 132.9 135. 5 139. 7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Prodineers* dur able equip ment Resid ential fix ed inves tment Prn Total Nonfarm C!'f"T"I1f>— tures 34.5 37.9 36.6 49. 6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51. 5 68.2 91.9 106.8 81. 6 91. 4 94.3 100.2 100. 3 105. 3 109. 0 112.5 33. 1 36.3 35. 1 47. 9 60.3 64. 3 52. 7 49.5 65.8 88.9 103. 6 78.6 88.4 91.2 97.5 97.3 102. 1 105. 7 109.3 Farm ducers* durstructures equipment Change in business mv entories QJ-jlrt 0.6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.2 .9 1. 1 1.5 1.4 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.8 .9 .9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1.2 1. 1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1. 6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 Total 7.7 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17. 9 8.9 -10.7 10. 2 15. 6 15.7 10.3 17.0 21. 9 13. 1 16.7 20. 1 13. 6 12. 4 Nonfarm 7.6 9.2 3.7 5. 1 8.8 14.7 10.8 -14.3 12. 2 15. 0 16.7 11. 1 16.5 22.0 10.4 16.9 22. 1 14. 6 13. 1 FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capita! spending 11.2 percent in 1979, according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in November and December. Spending in 1978 was 12.7 percent above 1977, according to the estimates released in December. OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCAlfc) {RATIO SCALE) TOTAL NEW WANT AND EQUIPMBMT 2C 20, 1972 •1971 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 J/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts cif plant ; and equlipment projcsets* Ei[penditurc s for plant and equ ipment Mi inufaeturi ng Period Total i Total Durable goods 170. 20 29.99 31.35 38. 01 46.01 47.95 52.48 60.16 67.65 76.99 14.15 15.64 19.25 22.62 21.84 23.68 27.77 St. 75 !_____, II III _____ .IV4... 14425 150. 76 155. 41 161. 24 61.57 67.20 67.75 78.20 1 4_ II* 163. $4 167. 82 73,02 76.28 1971. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 « 1979* 81.21 88.44 _ 99.74 112. 40 112. 78 „ 120. 49 135. 80 „ _ US. 09 Nc>nmanufi Maturing Nondurable goods Total 15.84 15.72 18.76 23.39 26.11 28.81 32. 39 35.90 40.11 51.22 57.09 61.73 66.39 64.82 68.01 75.64 85. 44 93.20 28.72 31.40 32.25 84.19 32.86 35.80 35.50 39.02 34.13 35.89 38.89 40.40 2.16 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 4.00 4.50 6.31 493 5.72 6.03 6.66 7.57 7.45 6.93 7.97 9. 16 15.30 17.00 18.71 20.55 20. 14 22.28 25.80 29. 16 82.68 83. 56 87.66 88.04 445 481 499 6,23 8.46 7.40 8.05 8.15 27.92 28.46 29.62 30.59 90.31 91. 53 4-94 10,09 30.70 - aa^viWAco <asiiuu.inij.al business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product mainly because those data include investment by formers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays to current 10 Trans- Public Mining porta- utilition ties 4^4 ComManumerf acturcial 1 ing and 2 other , 10.77 18.05 28.00 11.89 20.07 35.21 12.85 21.40 47.57 13.96 22.05 52.49 12.74 20.60 48. 24 13.30 20.99 51.05 15.45 22.97 66.73 18.04 25.42 46\ 17 Communication 17.07 18.18 13.90 2476 2471 26.09 44,07 Public utilities 22.22 28L 60 38. 13 45.74 3450 29. 6S 32.54 17.41 18. 10 16.96 44.69 i " 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. * Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures given period. * Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in — 1978. Plans are adjusted when for systematic bias. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 7.98 7.78 440 EMPLOYMENT§ UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 104,000 in December while unemployment increased by 135,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 100 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 90 90 EMPLOYMENT 80 80 "to UNEMPLOYMENT \ nli ii ill in n n n i h M i 1970 1971 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i n I 1 1 m 1 1 1 n.i 1 1 1.1 1 1 t n i i n i i 1 1 i i 1 1 1 i n i 1 1 n 1 1 i I i i i i I i 1 1 M i i » \ \ I i i I i 1 1 0 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1972 1973 *I6 YEARS OF AGE AND OViR. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over] Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Noninstitutional population Civilian Unememploy- ployment ment 150, 827 153, 449 156, 048 158, 559 161, 058 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 6,047 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 Uitiadjusted Civilian labor force Total 91, Oil 92, 613 94, 773 97, 401 100, 420 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 98, 748 92, 561 3,304 89, 257 99, 215 99, 139 99, 435 99, 767 100, 109 100, 504 100, 622 100, 663 100, 974 101, 077 101, 628 101, 867 92, 923 93, 047 93, 282 93, 704 93, 953 94, 640 94, 446 94, 723 95, 010 95, 241 95, 751 95, 855 3,363 3,280 3,334 3,274 3,243 3,424 3,377 3, 351 3,406 3, 374 3,275 3, 387 89, 560 89, 767 89, 948 90, 430 90, 710 91, 216 91, 069 91, 372 91, 604 91, 867 92, 476 92, 468 1977: Dec.. 159, 736 92, 623 5,880 100, 877 1978: Jan*.. Feb__ Mar__ Apr-_ May. June.. July__ Aug.. Sept__ Oct__. Nov__ Dec__ 91, 053 91, 185 91, 964 93, 180 93, 851 95, 852 96, 202 96, 116 95, 041 96, 095 96, 029 95, 906 6,897 6,739 6,479 5,685 5,457 6,326 6,438 5, 931 5,797 5,460 5,629 5,725 159, 937 160, 128 160, 313 160, 504 160, 713 160, 928 161, 148 161, 348 161, 570 161, 829 162, 033 162, 250 C ivilian e]mploymeiit Total labor force (including Armed Forces) 93, 240 94, 793 96, 917 99, 534 102, 537 101, 336 101, 263 101, 557 101, 885 102, 222 102, 602 102, 738 102, 785 103, 097 103, 199 103, 745 103, 975 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Unempl oyment N onagri cultural Part-time AgriecoculTotal for nomic 1 tural reasons 2,709 3,492 82, 443 3,490 3,380 81, 403 3,272 3,297 84, 188 3,297 3,244 87, 302 3, 342 91, 031 3,216 Seascmally adj listed 15 Labor force participation /rate (percent) 2 Total weeks and over 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 6,047 2,483 2,339 1,911 1,379 937 61.8 61. 8 62. 1 62.8 63.7 3,208 6, 187 1,648 63.2 3,045 3,203 3, 184 3, 310 3,247 3,433 3, 316 3,298 3,203 3, 164 3, 131 3,058 6,292 6,092 6, 153 6,063 6, 156 5,864 6, 176 5,940 5,964 5,836 5,877 6,012 1,641 1,559 1,488 1,486 1,404 1,266 1,314 1,234 1,268 1,317 1, 196 1,208 63.4 63.2 63.3 63. 5 63.6 63.8 63. 8 63.7 63.8 63. 8 64.0 64. 1 *Beginnmg 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. NOTE:—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1974. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In December the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.9 percent. The average unemployment rate for 1978 was 6.0 percent. PERCENT* {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 1975 1976 1977 I 1978 1978 *UNEMPIOYMENT AS PERCENT OF OVIUAN IABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF tABOR 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISIRS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total (all civilian workers) Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 ___ 1977: Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar, Apr_» . May _ „ June „ _ July Aug-_~ Sept Oct.—.. _ . Nov. Dee-_ 1 . 5.5 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.0 16.0 19.9 19.0 17.7 16.3 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 13.9 13. 1 13.1 11.9 5.3 8.2 7.3 6.6 5.6 6.3 4.5 6.5 15.4 5.4 12.6 6.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.0 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.8 16.4 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.5 15. 1 16.3 15.7 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.2 12.8 11.9 12.5 12.0 12.3 12.0 12.3 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.7 11.5 6. 1 5.8 „ White 6. 1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 4. 1 4. 1 4. 1 4.0 3.9 4. 1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Houseand hold and heads workother salary ers workers 3.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 6.2 6.1 _ Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and over over years 5.6 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 6. 1 .__ Uneinployment rate (percent <of jciviliaia labor f orce in group) By £sex and iige By select ed group)S By race 9.9 3.3 5.8 Labor force tune Partlost (per-! time work- cent) ers 5. 1 4.5 3.7 10.3 10.1 5.9 3.9 5.8 8.8 6.9 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.7 5,5 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 9.1 8.6 9.4 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.2 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1974. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 8.6 6.1 9.1 5.1 8.1 7.3 6.5 5.5 9.8 9.0 as 7.6 6.5 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers decreased in 1978, while the percentage who were reentrants or new entrants to the labor force rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS 20 NEW ENTRANTS \ JOB LEAVERS 1 it 1976 I I t I I t I III 1977 I II 1 1 1 M i l l t i l l ! Ill t I I if I 1 t i l 1 1 1 ! 1978 1979 1980 *.SEASONAUY ADJUSTID SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1979 1980 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percerit distribution of unemPercerit distribution of unem- otate Q x - A - __, pirograms Insured unem- Special plo yment by durati<m * Pioyment Dy reasoii* unemployUnemment, ployployall ment Period Insured 27 ment Less regular benefit Initial unem5-14 Job weeks 15-26 Reen- New (thou- Job en- than 5 pro- 2 claims * ploy- claims grams sands) losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks and (unadover ment (unad- justed) justed) We<3kly aver age, thoussands 1974 __ 5,076 14. 9 363 43.4 7.3 2,262 28.4 50.6 11. 1 31.0 13.3 2,558 1975 15.2 3,986 55.4 10.4 478 7,830 23.8 10.4 31.3 16.5 37.0 4,943 1,173 1976 __ 7,288 382 12. 2 18.3 2,991 49.8 12. 1 38.3 29.6 13.8 26.0 3,822 1,152 1977 375 6,855 13.0 148 2,655 45.3 28. 1 13.7 41.7 30.5 13. 1 572 3,111 1978 342 6,047 14. 1 30.0 10.5 2,356 31.0 41.6 14.3 46.2 12.3 2,640 1977: Dec._ 6, 187 13.7 351 13.5 2,487 43. 1 29.9 13.3 42.6 30.8 13.1 259 3,226 1978: Jan__ 6,292 43.0 13.7 346 43. 6 30.3 13.3 12.8 2,482 28.8 14.5 192 3,781 Feb.. 6,092 42.0 14.5 368 30.9 10.9 2,518 29.2 14.7 14.3 43.5 143 3,638 Mar__ 6, 153 41.3 30.2 11.3 2,452 339 13.8 14.7 30.9 12.7 45. 1 102 3,212 Apr«_ 6,063 42.0 14.4 338 45. 1 28.7 30.5 13.3 11. 1 2,307 14.9 60 2,659 May. 6,156 30.2 42.7 13.5 331 11. 1 2,223 29.3 46.9 11.8 14.6 2,369 36 June. 5,864 32. 1 10.0 2,247 14.6 14.0 40.8 347 30.6 11.3 46.6 21 2,297 July__ 6, 176 364 48.2 41.4 10. 5 2,374 13.9 14.2 30. 5 30.4 10.9 2,581 Aug__ 5,940 14.2 345 47.2 41.6 29.5 10.3 2,448 14.8 10.6 32.0 2,394 Sept__ 5,964 14.3 10.2 2,292 39.7 32.4 11.2 13.7 326 31.5 47. 1 2,064 Oct.. 5, 836 14.0 42.2 14.2 10.0 2,234 12.6 29.6 46.7 325 30.7 1,999 Nov.. 5,877 14.2 40.7 30. 1 15. 0 30.6 48.8 338 11.8 8,8 2,230 2,148 Dec.. 6,012 40. 2 14.3 47.4 12.0 31.9 13.6 32.6 7.9 2,252 339 2,545 1 3 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (50 States. District of Columbia, and Puerto Hico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (KB) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). » FSB and SXJA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1974. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 250,000 in December. MILLIONS OP PERSONS' MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 90 20 AIL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 18 80 16 70 14 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES - tii.—-4— 22 MANUFACTURING 50 \ 20 18 6 SODS-PRODUCING. INDUSTRIES 30 CONSTRUCTION 20 I HI 1»J 1975 1977 1976 1978 1976 1975 1979 '1977 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of LABOR 1978 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted] Cioods-pr(>ducing i ndustrieg> Pafirt/1 jrerioci 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 9 1977:Dec.__ 1978: Jan.— Feb— Mar__ Apr May__ June__ July._ Aug__ Sept__ Oct___ Nov*-. Dec p __ Total nonagricultural employ- Total * ment Construction 78, 265 76, 945 79, 382 82, 256 85, 760 83, 719 83, 871 84, 188 84, 726 85, 418 85, 618 85, 996 86, 033 86, 149 86, 163 86, 573 87, 020 87, 270 4,020 3, 525 3,576 3,833 4,213 3,955 3, 905 3,901 3,999 4,164 4, 175 4,278 4,317 4,298 4, 298 4,341 4,368 4,413 24, 794 22, 600 23, 352 24, 288 25, 381 24, 626 24, 648 24, 724 24,927 25, 313 25, 341 25, 473 25, 501 25, 463 25, 471 25, 670 25, 870 26, 039 Service-pr oducing Industrie s TransFinance, Ma nufactui g Government porta- Wholeinsursale tion ance, and Non- Total State and and Services retail Total Durable durable Federal and public real goods goods trade local utilities estate in 20, 077 18, 323 18, 997 19, 647 20, 331 19, 984 20, 065 20, 139 20, 230 20, 282 20, 297 20, 316 20, 302 20, 278 20, 286 20, 436 20, 600 20, 724 11, 925 10, 688 11, 077 11, 573 12, 159 11, 851 11, 917 11, 986 12, 041 12, 076 12,093 12, 109 12, 138 12, 146 12, 166 12, 305 12, 409 12, 490 8, 152 7,635 7,920 8,074 8, 172 8,133 8, 148 8, 153 8, 189 8,206 8,204 8,207 8, 164 8, 132 8,120 8, 131 8, 191 8,234 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11. which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 53, 471 54, 345 56, 030 57, 968 60, 380 59, 093 59, 223 59, 464 59, 799 60, 105 60, 277 60, 523 60, 532 60, 686 60, 692 60, 903 61, 150 61, 231 4,725 4,542 4,582 4,696 4,858 4,749 4,758 4,782 4, 817 4,847 4,847 4,881 4,827 4,846 4,855 4, 922 4,945 4,965 16, 987 17, 060 17, 755 18, 492 19, 392 18, 911 18, 991 19, 071 19, 169 19, 252 19, 335 19, 412 19, 469 19, 523 19, 546 19, 632 19, 697 19, 687 4, 148 4,165 4,271 4,452 4,676 4,547 4,563 4,591 4,605 4,623 4,637 4,670 4,690 4,707 4,719 4,737 4,775 4,788 13, 441 13, 892 14, 551 15, 249 15, 976 15, 618 15, 597 15, 670 15, 773 15, 866 15, 896 15, 963 15, 989 16, 074 16, 127 16, 169 16, 261 16, 296 2,724 2,748 2,733 2,727 2,754 2,723 2,736 2,736 2,739 2,745 2,753 2,772 2,765 2,765 2,752 2,760 2, 757 2,757 11,446 11, 937 12, 138 12, 352 12, 723 12, 545 12, 578 12, 614 12, 696 12, 772 12, 809 12, 825 12, 792 12, 771 12, 693 12, 683 12, 715 12, 738 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Avera§*e gross hourly earnings Avei•age weekly hours Period Total private nonagrieultural l Manufj aeturing Total Overtime Adjusted htourly earnirigs index2 —t otal private nonagrkjultural Percent cttange from a year earlier 4 Index, 1967=100 Total private nonagrieultural * Manufacturing $3.35 3.57 3.82 4. 09 4.43 4.83 5.22 5.67 6. 16 120.7 129.2 137.5 146.0 157.5 170.7 183.0 196.8 212. 6 103.8 106.5 109.7 109.7 106.6 105.9 107.3 108.4 108.9 6.6 7.0 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.4 7.2 7.5 8.1 -2.8i-r 1967 dollars s Current dollars Current dollars 1967 dollars 37. 1 36.9 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36. 1 36.0 35,8 39.8 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40. 1 40.3 40.4 3.3 2.6 3.4 3.6 $3.23 3.45 3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.24 5.68 1977: Dec 35.9 40.5 3.6 5.41 5.88 203.5 109.4 7.4 .6 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug .__ Sept Oct.._ Nov *». 1 35.5 35.7 36.0 36.1 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 35.9 35.8 35.8 39.8 40. 1 40.6 40.8 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 5.46 5.49 5.54 5.61 5.62 5.66 5.71 5.73 5.77 5.82 5.86 5.90 5.93 5.98 6.01 6.05 6.08 6. 12 6.18 6.20 6.25 6.32 6.37 6.41 206.0 206. 6 208.3 210.3 211.0 212.3 214. 1 214.6 216.2 218.0 219. 0 220.2 109.9 109.5 109. 5 109.6 109.0 108.7 109.0 108.7 108.7 108.8 108.7 108.6 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1.4 .9 .6 .6 .4 .1 -.4 -.6 -.7 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 * ..__ _..-_ Dec 9 3.0 2.9 3.5 3. 8 3. 1 0.7 2.6 3.0 0 _™ . 1 1.3 1.0 .5 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average5 gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricu Itural l Period Current dollars 1970. _„„ 1971 . 1972, 1973 1974. 1975 1976. 1977 _, 1978* 1977: Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar... Apr. May. June July Aug Sept... Oct Nov » Dec v 1 2 .. _. _„_ $119.83 127. 31 136. 90 145. 39 154. 76 163. 53 175, 45 188. 64 203. 34 194. 22 193. 83 195. 99 199. 44 202. 52 201. 76 203. 19 204. 99 205. 13 206. 57 208. 94 209. 79 211. 22 Manufacturing 1967 dollars8 $103. 04 104. 95 109. 26 109. 23 104. 78 101.45 102. 90 103. 93 104. 06 104. 42 103. 38 103. 86 104. 86 105. 59 104. 21 104. 04 104. 43 103. 92 103. 91 104. 26 104. 11 104. 15 $133. 33 142. 44 154. 71 166. 46 177. 20 190. 79 209. 32 228. 50 248. 86 238. 14 236. 01 239. 80 244. 01 246. 84 245. 63 247. 86 250. 29 249. 86 252. 50 255. 96 259. 26 260. 25 $195. 45 211. 67 221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 36 295. 29 316. 35 298. 29 284. 69 297. 26 312. 54 315. 93 314. 39 322. 65 323. 02 323. 51 323: 75 323. 61 324. 06 328. 04 Percent ch«Mige from a year €•arlier, total pri1yate nonagricu Itural * Current dollars Current dollar*5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Bevised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Construction Wholesale and retail trade $96. 02 101. 09 106. 45 111. 76 119. 02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 19 152. 85 146. 30 147. 48 147. 15 150. 15 151. 80 151. 34 151. 86 153. 64 154. 16 155. 14 156. 93 157. 77 157. 94 4.6 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.4 7.3 6.1 7.8 8.3 7.5 7.9 8. 1 8.5 8.0 8. 1 8.4 8.7 1967 dollars -1.3 1.9 4.1 -. 0 -4. 1 -3.2 1.4 1.0 .1 .5 .5 -.2 1.3 1.7 .4 .5 .3 .6 .2 -.6 —.4 -.3 * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. »Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 01-1979 DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY PRODUCTIVITY AND Hours of 2all pers ons Out put* Output 5er hour persons of all | Unit labor COsts Compe nsation per 1lour 3 Implici fc price deflai tor 4 PriNonNonPriHonPriNonPrivate NonPrivate NonPrivate vate vate farm farm iara! vate farm farm farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Period 1967== 100; quarterly data seasonially adjuslbed .. 98.0 100.0 105. 1 108.3 98.1 100.0 105.4 108.6 100.1 100.0 101.8 104.6 99.8 100.0 102.1 105.5 98.0 100.0 103.3 103. 5 98.3 100.0 103.2 102.9 94.9 100.0 107.6 114.9 94.8 100.0 107.3 114.1 96.8 100. 0 104. 1 111.0 96.4 100. 0 1040 110.9 97.2 100.0 103.9 108.8 96.8 100.0 1040 108.6 1970__ 1971.. ... „ 1972 1973 1974 107.3 110.3 117.6 124.5 121.5 107.4 110.2 117.8 125.0 121.9 103.0 102.4 105.5 109.6 110.3 104.2 103.8 107.0 111.6 112.4 104.2 107.8 111.4 113.6 110.1 103.1 106.3 imi 112,0 108.5 123.1 131.4 139.7 151.1 164,8 121.7 129.9 138.3 149.1 162.7 118. 1 122.0 125.3 133. 1 149.7 118, 1 122.3 125.6 133. 1 150.0 113.9 118. 9 123.1 130.2 143.0 1140 119.1 122.8 127.9 141. 3 1975— ...... 1976 — 1977 1978* — 118.8 126.5 133.2 139.0 118.8 127.0 133.6 139.9 105.6 108.7 112.6 117.1 107.5 111.0 115.4 120. 1 112.4 116.4 118.2 118.7 110.5 114.4 115.8 116.5 181. 2 197.0 213.0 232.9 178.8 193.7 209.3 228.9 161.2 169.3 180.2 196.3 161.8 169.4 180.8 196.6 157.4 165.4 174.9 187.9 156.3 1648 1746 186.8 1977: I. — _II 130.5 132.5 134.2 135. 5 131.0 133.0 134.6 135.8 110.7 112.9 112.9 113.9 113.3 115.5 115.8 116.7 117.9 117.4 118.9 119.0 115.6 115.2 116.2 116.4 207.5 210.5 215.3 218.8 203.9 207. 1 211.2 215. 1 176.0 179.3 181.1 183.9 176.4 179.8 181.7 184.8 170.6 174 0 176.3 178,4 170.0 173.6 176.4 178. 1 135.3 138.7 139.7 142.2 136.1 139.8 140.6 143.0 115.0 117.6 117.4 118.9 117.8 120.6 120.5 1219 117.6 118.0 119.0 119.6 115.5 116.0 116.6 117.3 225.2 229.6 235.4 240.3 221.4 225.8 231.0 236.1 191.4 194.6 197.8 200.9 191.7 194.7 198. 1 201.3 181.3 186.6 189.9 193.4 180.6 185.3 188.9 192.2 1966 1967 1968 1969 in IV 1978: I..™ II III IV* Perceiat change ; quarterl]r data at seasonal] y adjustec1 annual rates 5.5 2.0 5.1 3.0 6.0 1.9 5.4 3.0 2.3 i 1.8 2.8 3.3 .2 2.1 as 3.2 2.0 3.3 .2 2.6 1.7 3.2 -.3 7.1 5.4 7.6 6.8 6.1 5.5 7.3 6.4 3.8 3.3 4.1 6.6 3.5 3.8 40 6.6 3.2 2.9 3.9 47 2.9 3.3 40 4.5 -.9 2.8 6.6 5.9 -2.4 — 1.1 2.6 6.9 6.0 -2.5 -1.5 -.6 3.1 3.9 ,7 -L2 -.4 3.2 4.2 ,7 .7 3.4 3.4 1.9 -3.0 .1 3.1 3.6 1,7 -3.1 7.1 6.7 6.3 8.2 9.1 6.6 6.7 6.5 7.8 9.1 6.4 3.3 2.8 6.2 12.5 6.5 3.5 2.7 6.0 12. 6 47 44 3.6 5.8 9.8 49 45 3. 1 41 10. 5 . -2.3 6.5 5.3 4.4 -2.5 6.9 5.2 4.7 -4.3 2.9 3.7 4.0 -4.3 3.3 3.9 4. 1 2.1 3.5 1.6 .4 1.9 3.5 1.3 .6 9.9 8.7 8.1 9.3 9.9 8.4 8.1 9.4 7.7 5.0 6.4 8.9 7.8 4.7 6.7 8.8 10. 1 5. 1 5.7 7.5 10.6 5.4 5.9 7.0 1977:1 II...... Ill IV 9.3 6.5 5.0 4.0 9.4 6.2 5.0 3.5 6.6 8.3 .1 3.7 6. 8 7.7 1.3 ao 2.5 -1.7 5.1 .4 2.4 — 1.4 3.7 .5 7.9 5.8 9.5 6.7 8,3 6.5 8. 1 7.6 5.3 7.6 4.2 6.3 5.8 8.0 42 7.1 5.2 8.2 5.2 49 44 8.7 6.5 40 -.6 10.5 3.0 7.1 .7 11.6 2. 1 7.1 4.0 9.2 -.4 5.0 3.9 9.8 —.2 4.7 -4.5 1.2 3. 5 2.1 -3.1 1.7 2.3 2.3 12.1 8.1 10.4 8.7 12.2 8,2 9.6 9. 1 17,4 6.8 6,7 6.5 15.7 6.4 7.1 6.7 6.7 12. 1 7.3 7.7 5,8 10. 8 8. 1 7. 1 1966 1967 1968 19691970 19711972 1973 1974.._» 1975 1976. 1977 1978»— _ 1978:1 II III IV»- * Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed, 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross' domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in December, following increases of 0.6 percent in November and 0.5 percent in October. The index for December was 7.7 percent above a year earlier. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION INDEX, 1967= 100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 160 140 UTILITliS 120 MINING 100 n 1111111111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1974 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1975 1976 1977 I I I I 11 I I I I I 1978 PERCENT (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 120 - 100 1974 1975 1974 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 *_._ . Total in dustrial produtjtion Percent Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier 100. 00 9.2 119.7 8.4 129.8 -.4 129.3 -8.9 117.8 10.2 129.8 5.6 137.1 5.8 145. 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indusstry produiction indcsees, 1967 = 100 MJinufacturi ng Manufa cturing ca-paeityl utiilization rate, pejrcent Federal Reserve serles WharComTotal ton merce 2 Matemanuseries s series facturrials ing Mining Utilities 85.97 126.5 133. 8 134 6 126.4 140.9 148. 1 154.7 6.86 113. 1 114.7 115.3 112.8 114. 2 117.8 124.2 5.69 139.4 145.4 143.7 146.0 151.0 156.5 161. 0 83. 1 87.5 84.2 73.6 80.2 82.4 84.2 88.0 92.4 87.7 73.6 80.4 81.9 84.9 83 86 83 77 81 83 91.8 97. 1 92.9 80.4 87.4 90. 1 92.8 82 91.0 84 90.0 84 92.5 83 93.8 Total Durable Nondurable 87.96 118.9 129.8 129.4 116.3 129.5 137. 1 145.5 51.98 113.7 127. 1 125.7 109.3 121.7 129.5 139.2 1977: Dec 139.7 5.0 140. 5 133.4 150.9 113.4 156.7 83.0 81.9 1978: Jan_ _ _ _ — Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug___ — Sept Oct Nov 9 Dec v 138.8 139.2 140.9 143.2 143.9 144.9 146. 1 147. 1 147.8 148.6 149.5 150.4 4.9 138.7 139.4 141.4 143.5 144.3 145.5 146.7 147.6 148.7 149.4 150.3 151.2 131. 1 131.5 134.4 136.9 137.6 139.0 141.1 142.2 142.8 143.9 145.0 145.9 149.8 150.6 151.4 153.2 154.0 154.9 155.0 155. 6 157. 1 157.5 158. 1 158.9 115.0 114.4 119.3 127.2 126.7 128.0 127. 1 126. 0 124. 1 127.7 127.9 128. 0 162. 3 163. 5 159.5 156.0 157. 0 158.6 159. 9 160.8 162.3 162.4 162.6 163.3 81.7 81.9 82. 7 83.7 83. 9 84.3 84.7 85. 0 85.3 85.5 85.7 85.9 81.9 81.3 81.9 84.0 84.5 85. 1 85.7 85.9 86.3 87.0 87.4 87.6 1 Output 3 Annual 8 4. 5 4.1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 as percent of capacity. data are averages of four monthly indexes. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 94.8 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prodlucts Final Ideducts Coiisumer go ods Period Total 1967 proportion 1970 1971 —1972__ . 1973 1974 ___ 1975 1976.. - ~ 1977 1977: Dec 1978: Jan . Feb Mar Apr __ _ May June _ _ _ July Aug . Sept Oct. Nov p»_ . __ Dec _ _ -_ _ 47.82 105.3 106.3 115.7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.2 134.9 137.6 134. 9 136.4 138.9 140.5 140.5 141.1 142.2 143.3 143.7 143.9 144.8 145.6 Equip»ment NonDurable durable goods goods Total 27.68 109.0 114.7 124.4 131,5 128.9 124.0 136.2 143.4 145.8 141.8 143.8 145.9 147.5 147.0 147.0 147.7 148.4 149.0 149. 1 149.8 150.5 7.89 106.1 118.8 133.8 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.4 153. 1 155.8 146.5 151.2 157.5 161.8 160.2 160.6 160.9 161.5 160.3 162.0 162.6 162.8 Internxediate proc ucts 19.79 110. 1 113. 1 120.6 125. 6 126.3 125. 1 134. 1 139.6 141.8 139.9 140.8 141.3 141.8 141.7 141.6 142.4 143. 1 144.4 144.0 144.8 145.5 Total Business Total so. 14 12.63 107.0 104.1 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 136.3 149.2 154.0 152.6 154.2 157.4 159.3 160.2 161.8 163.8 165.4 165.8 166.9 167.9 169.3 12.89 112. 9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145.1 150.4 151.6 151.4 151.4 152. 1 152. 6 154.7 155.6 156.4 157.0 158. 1 159.2 160.5 100. 1 94.7 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 114. 6 123.2 126.2 125.4 126.2 129.1 130.8 131.6 133.0 134.7 136.3 136.4 136.9 137.7 138.8 Construction supplies 6.42 111.0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132. 6 140.8 148.3 149.2 148.6 147.9 148.5 150.4 152. 1 153.5 154.7 155.6 156. 6 157.7 159. 1 Materials 39. 29 109. 2 111.3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 130.6 136.9 138.8 139.2 138.6 139.9 143.7 145. 1 146.4 147.9 148. 6 149.7 151.3 152. 2 152. 9 Supplementary group: Energy total 12.23 117.0 119. 5 125.2 128.3 125. 5 125.5 128.8 132.5 129.7 132. 5 130.0 129.8 133. 1 134.2 135.9 136.4 136. 1 135.9 137.6 138. 1 138.8 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Diurable m anufactu res PrimaryT metals Period Total 1967 proportion , 1970 _ 1971 1972 „ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr ,_ May__ __ . __ June July Aug Sept__ Oct Nov v*» _ „ Dec Iron and steel 6.57 4.21 106.6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 108.9 110.2 111.0 107.4 106.2 106.1 114.3 115.5 117.5 123.0 126.0 127.9 128.4 128.9 129.3 104.7 96. 1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.9 103.4 103.8 99.5 96.3 96.4 109.0 110.5 114.5 119.0 120.9 123.2 123.8 123.9 trical machin- 6.93 102.4 103.5 112. 1 124.7 1242 109.9 123.3 130.9 136.4 136.9 136.9 138.1 139.5 140.4 142.3 144.0 145.8 146.3 146.3 146.8 147. 9 9.15 8.05 104.4 100.2 116.0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 135.0 144.8 151.7 150.1 150.1 151. 5 152.2 152.9 154.6 156. 1 157. 3 158.7 159.8 160.7 162.2 108. 1 107.7 122.2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 131.6 141. 9 147.3 144.0 146.4 149.5 152.3 152.9 154.1 157.9 156.9 158.3 157.9 159.2 160.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Non- Fabricated metal products ery Electrical machinery Non<iurable rnanufact ures Transp<srtation equip ment Total Motor vehicles and parts 9.27 89.5 97.9 4.60 92.3 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 110.6 121, 1 122.2 116.2 118.4 126. 5 130.5 130. 1 130.4 132.1 133.4 132.8 136.9 139.3 138.6 118.6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 140.7 159.7 161.8 146.6 153. 1 165. 1 171.7 168.3 167.7 169.7 171.0 168.9 177. 1 181.3 178.5 Lumber and products Apv pareli products Print- Cheming icals Foods and and pub- prodlishing ucts 1. 64 3.31 4.72 7. 74 8.75 105.6 113. 8 120.8 126.0 116.2 107.6 125. 1 133.4 138.1 138.5 135.5 136. 5 136.9 136.5 138.7 138.1 136.9 139.2 140.2 141. 6 101.4 104.7 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 122.2 124.2 125.8 118.6 121. 1 122. 8 126. 1 125.8 126.8 124.5 127.2 130.9 130.6 107.0 107. 1 112.7 118.2 118.2 113. 3 120. 6 124.7 127.5 129.9 128. 3 129. 1 128.6 128.2 128.7 130.3 129.5 131.0 130.3 131. 9 132. 9 120.4 125.9 143.6 154.5 159.4 147.2 169.3 180.7 183.0 184.4 183. 7 185.2 185.5 188. 1 191. 1 192.3 192.2 194.2 195.8 196.8 108.9 112.8 116.8 120.9 124.0 123.4 132.3 137.9 140.4 139.3 140.8 141. 1 143. 1 142.8 141.8 142.9 144.0 144. 4 143.5 144. 1 NEW CONSTRUCTION Private Total new construction expenditures Period Constructio n Resic iential Total Total1 Commercial and industrial New housing units Federal, State, Other and local CommerTotal value cial and index industrial (1967= floor 100) of feet) Bi]lions of dollars 1972 1973___ 1974 1975___ 1976 1977. 1978 *„_ _ __ _ 124. 1 137.9 138.5 134. 5 148. 8 172.6 201.5 93.9 105.4 100.2 93. 7 110.5 134.7 156.8 18.1 21.7 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 29. 1 44.9 50. 1 40.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.5 54.3 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 92.7 21.5 24.0 25.9 26.4 30.0 31.3 35.1 30.2 32.5 38.3 40.9 38.3 37.8 44.7 179.0 171.4 177.6 185.4 195.0 201.3 206. 3 210.2 208. 7 209.2 209.8 212.8 215.0 142.3 134.9 141.9 147.7 153.5 156.2 161. 1 161, 8 160.6 161. 3 161.9 164. 9 168. 0 22.8 22.4 22.8 25.4 26.4 27.3 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.6 32.0 32.8 33.7 72.8 65.0 70.9 72.5 74.4 75. 1 76.6 77.7 77. 1 76.8 76.8 78.9 80.2 87.4 79.4 85.3 88. 1 92.2 94.3 95.4 95.9 95.0 94.2 93.6 95.4 96.8 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 252.2 287.0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonall\y adjusted ai inual rates 1977: Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov » _ _ Dec *>_ . 165.3 179.5 169.7 167.9 199.4 32.1 33.2 33.8 341 34.9 34.6 35. 1 35.3 34,7 35.4 36.3 36.7 37.5 36.8 36.4 35.7 37.7 41.5 45.1 45.2 48.4 48.2 48.0 47.9 47.9 47.0 299 283 266 254 279 3E2 251 286 289 300 319 285 303 854 1,010 840 555 592 739 964 Seasonally adjusted annual rotes 864 996 814 863 921 1,061 999 898 951 1,037 1,015 1,093 978 NOTE.—New construction expenditures date prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes >Tew private housing unr jS Units started, by type of striicture Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 9 ___ Total 1 unit 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 2, 018. 5 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892. 2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 1, 432. 7 2-4 units 120. 3 141. 3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 85.9 121.7 125. 7 5 or more units 780.9 906.2 795.0 381.6 204.3 289. 2 414.4 460.2 Units authorized 1, 924. 6 2,218.9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939.2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 658. 4 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period * Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 1, 706. 1 2, 003. 9 2,100.5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 656 718 634 519 549 646 819 287 409 418 346 313 354 403 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 1,641 1,759 1,696 1,821 1,943 1,854 1,890 1,943 1,967 1,981 1,845 1,812 857 813 774 793 827 846 831 789 785 793 975 811 403 405 404 404 410 412 418 417 419 420 411 418 5. 1 Seasonally adjusted aninual rates 1977: Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar. Apr May June July Aug___ _ Sept 9 Oct 9 _ „ Nov*> Dec 9 1 2 2,203 1, 548 1,569 2, 047 2, 165 2,054 2,124 2,119 2,025 2,075 2,106 2,155 2, 125 1,574 1, 156 1, 103 1,429 1,492 1,478 1,441 1,453 1,440 1,463 1,455 1,558 1,533 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 153 101 79 126 142 89 148 135 139 111 139 156 133 476 291 387 492 531 487 535 531 446 501 512 441 459 1,778 1,526 1,534 1,647 1,740 1,597 1,821 1,632 1,563 1,731 1,719 1,724 1,680 5.0 5. 1 5.0 5.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 INVENTORIES—TOTAL JIND TRADE Business sales rose 1 percent in November while inventories rose $4 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 1 percent in December following increases of 1 percent in November and 1% percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 400 350 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 250 TOTAL BUS NESS SALES 150 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1977 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISIUS Total business l R(*tail Who .esale Sales Period 1978 2 Sales Inventories3 Sales2 Inventories3 Trvf al 2 Iiiventories DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores TVvfeil DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores Inventory-4sales ra1 io Total business l Retail Mill]ons of d ollars, se asonally adjusted _ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 116, 351 130, 049 151, 647 175, 200 179, 621 200, 760 223, 793 188, 508 203, 088 233, 749 285, 064 283, 614 309, 238 334, 785 26, 257 29, 584 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 35, 823 39, 786 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 34, 169 37, 422 41, 871 44, 543 48, 370 53, 542 59, 029 10, 827 12, 369 14, 091 13, 820 14, 907 17, 544 19, 901 23, 342 25, 054 27, 781 30, 723 33, 463 35, 998 39, 127 21, 687 24, 238 28, 072 32, 394 32, 119 36, 417 40, 534 28, 376 30, 841 34, 878 38, 322 38, 504 41, 628 46, 539 1.58 1.50 1.44 1.47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.48 1.43 1.39 1.40 1977: Dec 237, 017 334, 785 57, 266 67, 998 61, 813 20, 674 41, 139 87, 073 40, 534 46, 539 1.41 1.41 1978: Jan Feb-_ Mar Apr May 230, 294 238, 165 242, 627 250, 606 251, 869 252, 639 250, 853 258, 306 258, 311 265, 295 268, 004 1.47 1.43 1.43 1.40 1.41 1.41 1.43 1.40 1.41 1.38 1.39 1.46 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.41 June_ July Aug Sept___ Oct Nov» Dec* __ __ 337, 676 340, 396 345, 839 350, 545 354, 226 356, 920 359, 301 362, 815 364, 747 367, 382 371, 541 55, 985 57, 635 58, 877 62, 152 64,011 63, 235 63, 404 64, 573 64, 045 67, 292 67, 483 68, 991 70, 361 72, 882 74, 867 75, 474 75, 820 75, 664 76, 253 77, 020 78, 346 79, 024 1 The term " business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. 1 59, 987 61, 548 62, 649 63, 917 64, 292 64, 565 64, 343 65, 862 66, 347 67, 389 68, 181 68, 889 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for mont My data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 19, 914 20, 445 20, 897 21, 807 21, 821 22, 092 21, 844 22, 908 22, 812 23, 599 23, 723 24, 402 40, 073 41, 103 41, 752 42, 110 42, 471 42, 473 42, 499 42, 954 43, 535 43, 790 44, 458 44, 487 50, 063 55, 079 62, 950 70, 716 70, 623 78, 045 87, 073 87, 708 87, 642 89, 097 89, 963 91, 063 91, 543 92, 470 93, 680 93, 664 94, 301 95, 930 41, 060 41, 369 41, 521 41, 881 42, 300 42, 036 42, 359 42, 640 42, 565 43, 039 44, 087 46, 648 46, 273 47, 576 48, 082 48, 763 49, 507 50, 111 51, 040 51, 099 51, 262 51, 843 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and BureatX of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders rose in December. BILLIONS Of DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAIfl BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 INVENTORIES 120 240 100 200 160 120 T 100 DURABLE GOOD 80 u**?^ 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 -NEW „.,»».»*""• NONDURABLE GOODS 40 ORDERS 120 100 80 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 60 DURABLE GOODS .,^"=r* ,.„,-.,.,..».•»"'•• -NONDURABLE GOODS 40 M**" 1975 1974 1976 1977 1974 1978 1975 1977 1976 *5£ASONAUY ADJUSTED SOURCE, WPMTMENT OF COMMffiCE Mantifac turers' sh pments ' Manufaet urers' inv entories 2 Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods 34, 043 39, 704 44, 253 43, 678 50, 697 58, 266 66, 821 28, 999 33, 250 40, 568 42, 939 48, 112 52, 990 58, 386 1977: Dee__- 117,938 62, 130 55, 808 179, 714 115,424 1978: Jan_-_ 114, 322 Feb— 118, 982 Mar— 121, 101 Apr 124, 537 May_- 123, 566 June-_ 124, 839 July... 123, 106 Aug... 127, 871 Sept 127, 919 Oct.— 130, 614 Nov.— 132, 380 Deo "__ 133, 771 59, 973 63, 077 64, 457 66, 493 65, 417 66, 293 65, 222 68, 684 68, 916 70, 292 71, 635 72, 121 54, 349 55, 905 56, 644 58, 044 58, 149 58, 546 57, 884 59, 187 59, 003 60, 322 60, 745 61, 650 180, 977 182, 393 183, 860 185, 715 187, 689 189, 557 191, 167 192, 882 194, 063 194, 735 196, 587 197, 302 116,278 117,511 118,725 119, 848 121, 471 122, 688 123, 830 125, 206 126, 176 126, 784 128, 357 128, 968 p Monthly average for y ear and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales, a Boot value, end of period, 3 End of period. Manu 'acturers' new ord(;rs ' Durabl e goods Capital Nongoods Durable Total Total indusgoods durable Total goods tries, nondefense Millio us of dolla rs, season ally adjusted 108, 223 70, 244 37, 979 64, 201 35, 098 8,832 124, 545 81, 333 43, 212 76, 224 42,894 11, 114 157, 811 101, 790 56, 021 87, 200 46, 783 12, 691 157, 878 101, 580 56, 298 85, 058 41, 933 10, 781 169, 886 108, 968 60, 918 99, 134 50, 997 12, 501 179, 714 115, 424 64, 290 112, 842 59, 795 15, 201 197, 302 128, 968 68, 334 129, 109 70, 602 18, 732 63, 043 72, 954 84, 821 86, 616 98, 809 111,256 125, 207 1972 1973 1974 1975. . 1976 1977 ... 1978"- _ 1978 COUKCH OF ECONOJWC ADVISKS ManufacNon- turers' lurable unfilled goods orders * Manufacturers' inventory— shipments F3/tio ^ 29, 104 33, 329 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 53,047 58, 507 121, 709 161, 194 189, 678 170, 686 174, 553 193, 659 240, 496 1.67 1.58 1.65 1.83 1.66 1.58 1.51 64, 290 122, 128 66, 165 16, 988 55, 963 193, 659 1.52 64, 699 64, 882 65, 135 65, 867 66, 218 66, 869 67, 337 67, 676 67, 887 67, 951 68, 230 68, 334 16,511 17, 882 17, 507 17, 409 18, 124 18, 155 17, 074 19,344 20, 149 22, 219 20, 575 19, 801 1.58 1.53 1.52 1.49 1. 52 1.52 1.55 1. 51 1.52 1.49 1.49 1.47 117,899 122, 544 125, 801 128, 175 128, 450 127, 580 123, 279 130, 952 131, 840 137, 162 137, 618 138, 562 63, 335 66, 681 69, 016 70, 033 70, 045 68, 840 65, 187 71, 582 72, 645 76,984 76, 654 76,842 54, 564 55, 863 56, 785 58, 142 58, 405 58, 740 58, 092 59, 370 59, 195 60, 178 60, 964 61, 720 197, 235 200, 798 205, 500 209, 133 214, 010 216, 754 216, 922 219, 999 223, 921 230, 464 235, 704 240, 496 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In December, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods increased 0.9 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.8 percent. Prices of capital equipment increased 0.8 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 240 _ INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 240 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINISHED GOODS 220 220 200 200 130 180 160 160 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT 140 140 120 120 100 100 (HIM 1971 1972 1976 1975 1974 1973 1977 1978 SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967= :LOO;.m onthly data se<asonally adjuste d] Finishec1 goods Finished goods e xcludin g cons umer f c>ods Period Total finConished sumer goods foods Total T^Tir- j 1 Total In termed] ate inaterialiS con- sumer 1971 113.7 115.3 113. 1 111.4 110.8 111.7 116.6 112.9 114. 1 111. 7 114. 3 1972 __ _ 117.2 121.7 115.4 113.4 113.2 113.6 119. 5 116.6 118.7 118. 5 118.9 1973 127. 9 146.4 120. 1 118.5 115.8 120. 5 123.5 129. 2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 1974 ___ _ 147.5 166. 9 139.3 138. 6 126.3 146. 8 141.0 149.3 162. 9 200. 2 159. 5 1975 163.4 181.0 156.2 153.1 138.2 163. 0 162. 5 163.6 180.0 195.3 178.6 1976 . 170.3 180.2 165 5 161. 8 144.4 173.3 173.2 169.0 189.3 186.6 189.5 1977 _ 180.6 189. 1 176.2 172. 1 152.2 185.4 184.5 178. 9 201.7 191.0 202.4 1978 __ 194.6 206. 8 188.9 183.7 165.9 195.4 199.0 192.6 215.5 201.0 216.4 1977: Dec_. 185.3 192.6 181.2 176. 1 156. 1 189.5 191.3 182.7 206.0 183.3 207.4 1978: Jan 186.6 194.8 182.2 177.1 157.4 190.3 192.3 184.2 207.9 187.2 209.2 Feb--._ 188.6 200. 7. 183.0 177.6 157.7 190.9 193. 5 186.4 209.7 191. 0 210.9 Mar 189.6 202. 1 183.9 178.4 158.7 191. 5 194.6 187.5 211.3 201. 1 212.0 Apr 192.0 205.8 185. 8 180.8 163.2 192.4 195.7 190.4 212. 4 201.2 213. 1 May_ 193.4 206.7 187.3 182.3 165.5 193.3 197.3 191.6 213.7 206.4 214. 2 June_ 194.8 209. 1 188.4 183.2 165. 8 194. 6 198. 7 193. 1 214.6 200.8 215.4 July 195.8 208. 1 190.0 185.0 168.7 195. 5 199.9 194.0 215.5 204.0 216. 2 Aug__ ._ 195.8 205.2 190.8 185.9 170. 1 196. 1 200. 7 193. 6 216.4 197. 1 217.6 Sept 197.2 208. 6 191. 7 186.6 170. 3 197. 1 201. 8 195. 1 217.9 201. 5 218.9 Oct 198,9 212. 1 192.9 187.8 170.3 199. 2 203.0 197. 1 220.6 207. 1 221.4 Nov 200.4 213. 4 194 5 189. 1 171. 1 200. 9 205.0 198.5 222. 2 206.4 223.2 Dec 202. 1 215.4 196.0 190. 7 171. 9 203. 0 206.6 200. 2 223. 5 208. 8 224.4 1 Formerly eaEed 2 producer finished goods. Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. 22 Crud e mateiials FoodCapistuffs finFoods ished Total and 2 Other Total and Other tal Nonfeeddur- equip-l goods feeds stuffs able ment Conssumer g oods Total rp 115. 1 127. 6 174.0 196. 1 196.9 205. 1 214. 3 240. 2 217.2 221. 6 228. 7 231.7 114.2 127.5 180.0 189.4 191.8 190. 1 190.9 215.4 191. 1 196.4 205.6 208.0 238.5 217.0 238.9 217. 1 243. 1 221. 3 241.7 215.7 238.6 211.9 242.3 215.9 249. 6 223.7 253.3 226.5 254. 4 226. 1 NOTE.—Data revised for August 1978. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 117.0 128.0 162. 5 208.9 206. 9 233.6 258.4 287. 0 266.3 269.4 272. 1 276.5 278.8 279.8 284.2 291. 0 289.5 292. 5 298.6 304. 1 308. 1 CONSUMER PRICES m December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent (0.6 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.7 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.6 percent (0.9 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.3 percent (0.2 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967^=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 120 120 100 100 1970 1971 1972 1975 1974 1973 1978 1977 1976 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] Period 1971 1972 1973 1974.. 1975 1976 1977 1978 All items Food Commodities less food 121.3 125.3 133.1 147. 7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 118.4 123.5 141. 4 161.7 175.4 180.8 192.2 211.4 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149. 1 156.6 165.1 174.7 ComBnodities le ss food Food Services Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home All Durable Nondurable 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 1943 210. 9 117.4 120.9 129.9 145.5 158.4 165.2 1747 187. 1 118.4 123.5 141. 4 161.7 175.4 180.8 192.2 211.4 116.4 121.6 141.4 162.4 175.8 179.5 190.2 210.2 126.1 131. 1 141.4 159. 4 1743 186.1 200.3 218.4 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149. 1 156.6 165. 1 1747 116.5 118.9 121.9 130.6 145.5 1543 163.2 173.9 117.0 119.8 1248 140.9 151.7 158.3 166.5 174.3 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152.1 166.6 180.4 1943 210.9 Seasonal] y adjust ed Unacljusted 1977: Dec.... 186.1 196.3 168.4 200.5 i7a3 196.7 1942 206. 1 168.4 166.0 169.9 200.3 187.2 188.4 189.8 191.5 193.3 195.3 196.7 197.8 199.3 200.9 202. 0 202.9 199.2 202.0 204.2 207.5 210.3 213.8 215.0 215.4 215.6 216.8 217.8 219.4 168.6 168. 8 170.0 171.3 173.0 174.4 175.4 176.3 177.8 179.1 180.3 181.3 202.0 203.5 204.9 206.5 208.0 209.9 211.7 213.4 215.6 217.6 218. 6 219.2 179.9 180.8 182.3 1840 185.6 187.2 187.9 188.7 190. 1 191.5 192.7 194.3 199.2 201.6 2043 208. 1 211.2 2140 213.9 214.5 215.6 217.3 218.0 219.7 197.0 199.5 202.5 207.3 211. 1 2140 213.2 213.3 214 1 216.0 216.5 218.3 208. 4 210.5 212.5 2140 215.8 218.2 219.9 221.7 223.2 2246 225.7 227.2 169.5 169.9 170.9 171.8 172.8 173.9 1749 175.7 177.2 178.5 179.9 181.5 167.6 168.7 169.5 170.4 171.8 173.2 1744 175.2 176.7 178. 1 179,6 181. 4 170.6 170. 1 171.2 172. 1 172.8 173.5 1744 175.2 176.6 177.4 178.4 179.6 201.5 203.0 2047 206.6 208.7 210.5 212.2 214 0 215.7 217.5 218.3 218.7 1978: Jan Feb.... Mar Apr May... June July... Aug — Sept... Oct Nov Dec NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data related to urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period Percen } change from prc^ceding perioc I; season ally adju sted 1 Percen t change from 3 inonths earlie r; seasorlally adjilisted annua . rates Percen t change from 6 rnonths earlie r; seasorlally adjiisted annua I rates Consum er goods Consum er goods Consum er goods Total finished goods 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1977: Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Capital Total finequipished Exclud- ment goods ing Foods foods 2.2 3.2 3.8 -2.5 6.6 3.3 6.6 5.5 11.8 18.3 5.9 8.0 22.5 .3.0 -2.5 6.6 9. 1 11.9 .4 .7 1. 1 1. 1 .5 1.3 .7 .7 .5 0 .7 .9 .8 .8 .4 3.0 .7 1.8 .4 1.2 -.5 -1.4 1.7 1.7 .6 .9 Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods Foods Capital equipExclud- ment ing foods 4.9 2.4 2.0 5.3 3.9 2.0 2.0 7.4 20.5 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 .7 .5 .6 .6 .6 .8 .7 .6 .4 .5 .6 1.0 .8 6.7 4.9 6.1 8.3 .4 .6 .3 .5 1.3 .8 .5 1.0 .5 .4 .6 .7 .8 7.2 7.6 9.2 9.6 7.4 11.7 19.6 21.2 24.6 12.5 14.6 12. 1 10.6 11.4 8.2 -2.9 -1.0 10.3 17.0 13.7 10.9 5.3 8.6 11.0 11.2 8. 1 10.5 10.1 8.7 8.9 7.1 6.4 6.3 8.8 9.9 9.6 8. 1 7.6 6.2 7.9 5.0 6.2 8.0 8.4 9.8 9.9 7.4 7.8 7.1 7.3 5. 1 4.5 5. 1 5.0 6.5 9.7 4.7 5.4 7. 1 9. 1 7.8 8.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 2.4 5.2 4.3 5.3 5.1 5.0 7.0 8.0 8.2 12.4 14. 1 17.9 16.0 17.9 14. 1 9. 1 4.5 6.5 6.2 6.6 9.6 9.4 7.9 7.6 8.4 6. 1 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.0 7.3 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.6 7.5 7.6 8.0 8. 1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for August 1978. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percen t change from pre ceding perio d ; seasortally adju sted1 Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1977: Dec— 1978: Jan... Feb__. Mar.. _ Apr May__ June.. July... Aug_._ Sept... Oct___ Nov Dec.__ All items 5.5 3.4 3.4 8.8 12.2 Food 2.2 4.3 4.7 20. 1 12.2 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 .4 11.8 .4 .8 .6 .8 .9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.9 .9 .5 .6 .8 .8 .5 .6 1.3 -.0 .3 .5 .8 .3 .8 .9 6.5 .6 8.0 1. 5 Commodities less food 4.8 2.3 2.5 5.0 13.2 6.2 5. 1 4.9 7.7 .5 .7 .2 .6 .5 .6 .6 .6 .5 .9 .7 .8 .9 Services Percent c lange f re>m 3 months earlier; Percent c tiange frc>m 6 mont his earlier; seasonsilly adju sted annu al rates seasonsilly adjus5ted annu al rates All items Services All items Food Commodities less food Services 8.2 41 3.6 6.2 11.3 8.1 7.3 7.9 9.3 .4 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 .9 .8 .8 .8 .8 .4 .2 4.9 6.7 7. 5 9.3 10.0 11.3 11. 4 9.7 8.3 7.8 8.8 8.6 7.9 1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Food Commodities less food 42 5.4 49 47 3.0 4. 0 6.3 8.9 6.6 5.6 5.8 7.2 5.6 6.0 7.7 5.0 6.0 6.4 7.0 8.1 9.4 11.9 16.4 19.1 20.5 20.4 11.6 6.4 3.0 6.5 6.7 7.8 6. 1 5. 5 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.9 7.8 8.5 9.9 10. 1 9. 1 10.5 11.7 11.8 11.3 10.6 10. 3 10.4 8.3 5.7 6. 1 7.1 8.3 9.4 10. 4 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.3 8.4 7.8 10. 1 13.9 16. 1 18.4 15.3 13.2 11.4 9.0 6.5 5.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5. 1 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.9 7.5 8.0 8.4 8.9 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.0 10.8 9.4 7.9 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Vices received by farmers increased 414 percent in January. Prices paid by farmers rose 3 percent in the month ended January 15. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS/INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 70 60 I 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 1978 1977 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14.100 BASE. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT Of AGRICULTURE COUNCIt, OF ECONOMIC ADVBSS Prices received by farmers Period 1971 1972 1973 1974_ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1978: Jan Feb.__ Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979; Jan «« All farm products „ ___ 4 , , Crops Prices paid by far mers All items, Livestock interest, Family Producand living tion taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1<367=100 113 125 179 192 185 186 183 210 186 193 200 208 215 218 215 211 216 218 216 222 108 114 175 224 201 197 192 203 188 190 197 208 212 216 213 204 204 202 202 205 118 136 183 165 172 177 175 216 185 196 204 209 217 219 217 217 226 232 228 237 118 125 144 164 180 191 202 219 209 211 214 216 219 220 220 221 223 224 225 226 (33) () (3) (•) (33) (3) (3) () (') (33) () (33) () (3) 232 210 252 233 (3) percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, -Jrest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. * The adjusted parity ration reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. 118 123 133 151 166 176 Parity ratio * Actual Adjusted 2 113 121 146 166 182 193 200 216 203 206 211 214 217 218 218 217 220 222 222 225 71 74 91 86 76 71 66 70 66 67 69 71 72 73 72 70 71 72 71 72 75 79 94 87 76 72 68 72 67 69 71 73 74 75 73 72 73 73 72 74 230 73 75 »Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted in4calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977. Not charted. NOTE.—Data revised beginning 1977. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Growth in the monetary aggregates slowed in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 900 300 200 200 1978 *SEASONAdY ADJUSTED SOURCE! BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] (3verall measur BS 1 Deposit s at comimercia banks Period M, M1+ M2 Perce nt charige3 (Domponents and related items M3 Currency Time and savings Demand TVvf-fll _L U tell 2 Large CDs Savings DeU.S. posits Governat ment nondemand bank deposits thrift (unadinstitu- justed) tions M! M1+ M2 1973: Dee__ 270.5 1974: Dec__ 282.9 1975: Dec_. 295.2 1976: Dec__ 313. 5 1977: Dec__ 338.5 1978: Dec » 361.2 397.7 419. 0 456. 4 516.8 560.2 584.2 571.4 612.2 664.7 740. 5 809.5 872.0 919. 2 981.2 1, 092. 5 1, 236. 5 1, 376. 1 1, 498. 7 61.5 67.8 73.7 80.7 88. 6 97.6 209. 0 215. 1 221.5 232. 8 249. 9 263.5 363.9 418. 3 450.9 489.7 545.0 607.9 63.0 89.0 81.3 62.7 74. 0 97.0 127.0 135.8 160.5 201.9 219.6 220.2 347. 8 369. 1 427. 8 496.0 566. 6 626.7 6.3 4.9 4. 1 4.4 5. 1 10.2 6.0 4.6 4.3 6.2 8.0 6.7 5.0 5.4 8. 9 13.2 8.4 4.3 8.8 7.1 8.6 11.4 9.3 7.7 1978: Jan__ 341.7 Feb__ 341. 8 Mar_ 342.9 Apr__ 348.5 May. 350. 6 June. 352.8 July_ 354.2 Aug__ 356.7 Sept. 360.9 Oct__ 362.0 Nov_ 360.6 Dec? 361.2 564. 6 565. 0 566.2 572.6 575.2 577. 1 577.8 582.0 587. 9 588.8 585.3 584. 2 815.9 819. 1 822. 6 830.3 835.2 840. 6 846.2 853. 5 862.4 867.4 870.5 872.0 1, 386. 6 1, 393. 1 1, 400. 3 1, 411. 4 1, 419. 9 1, 429. 8 1, 441. 0 1, 455. 1 1, 472. 1 1, 483. 9 1, 492. 2 1, 498. 7 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91. 2 92. 1 92.8 93.3 94.0 95.2 96.0 96.7 97.6 252.2 251. 7 252. 3 257.3 258. 5 259.9 260.9 262. 8 265. 7 266. 1 263.9 263.5 550.6 556.7 561.7 565.2 571.6 574.5 579.4 583.0 589.7 593. 6 605.3 607.9 76.3 79. 4 82.0 83.4 87. 1 86.7 87.4 86. 3 88. 1 88.2 95.4 97.0 220.7 220. 9 221.0 221.6 222. 0 221.7 220.9 222.4 224. 2 223. 9 221.8 220.2 570.7 574. 0 577.7 581.2 584.7 589.2 594.7 601. 6 609. 6 616. 5 621.7 626.7 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.0 6.2 4.5 3. 6 6.2 4.3 8.0 10.2 8. 1 7. 0 6. 0 7. 6 8.7 8. 6 7.5 8.9 10.8 7.9 5.8 4.8 7.5 5.8 4. 6 5.5 6.4 6. 1 4.7 6.1 7.8 5.7 3.5 2.5 8.2 7. 7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.6 8. 6 9.9 9. 1 8. 6 7. 6 1 MI is currency plus demand deposits; MB- is Mi plus savings deposits at commercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions; M2 is MI plus time and savings deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is Mz plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 26 a Includes time deposits other than large CDs, not shown separately. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Curre ncy and c leposits U.S. Tireasury secuiities ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift bonds able seinstitutions curities Total 852.5 967.2 1, 085. 3 1, 170. 2 1, 290. 6 1, 424. 6 1, 591. 0 1, 757. 0 719.0 816.6 887.7 945.0 lt 055. 3 1, 195. 2 1, 328. 3 1, 451. 8 52.6 56.8 61. 5 67.8 73. 7 80.7 88.6 97.5 161.8 176. 1 183.7 187.1 192.4 200.0 213.9 226.4 233.6 264.3 294.4 321. 1 360.6 417.3 459.2 501.6 271. 1 319.3 348. 1 369. 1 428.6 497.3 566.6 626.4 54.3 57.6 60. 4 63.3 67.2 71.9 76.6 80.6 1977: Dec____ 1, 591. 0 1, 328. 3 88.6 213.9 459.2 566.6 1978: Jan Feb.. Mar__ Apr__ _ _ May June __ July Aug __ Sept . _ Oct.. 1, 607. 7 1, 619. 2 1, 631. 0 1, 647. 4 1, 662. 3 1, 674. 2 1, 686. 2 1, 699. 2 1, 720. 3 1, 732. 6 1, 747. 5 1, 757. 0 1, 339. 1 1, 345. 6 1, 352. 8 1, 363. 5 1, 371. 5 1, 381. 6 1, 393. 8 1, 407. 8 1, 424. 3 1, 436. 7 1, 445. 2 1, 451. 8 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91.2 92. 1 92.8 93.3 94.0 95.2 96.0 96.7 97.5 216. 6 216.0 216.3 221.5 222. 1 223. 1 224.5 226.2 228. 4 228.5 226. 3 226. 4 462.4 465.5 468.1 469. 6 472.5 476.5 481.3 486. 1 491.0 495.7 500.5 501.6 570.7 574.0 577.7 581.2 584.7 589.2 594. 7 601.6 609.6 616.5 621. 6 626.4 Period 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: _____ Dee Dec Dec__— _ Dec Dec Dec Dee Dec* Nov Dee*__ Currency Demand deposits Commercial banks Other private money market instruments Negotiable certifiof deposit Time c eposits Total liquid assets 31.5 . 43.4 47. 1 66.3 66.5 77.6 82.7 27.6 36.2 53.8 70. 4 58.4 43.2 52.3 §8.5 20.1 22.5 40.0 76.6 77.6 52,3 56.3 77.0 77.4 77.8 78.2 78.6 78.9 79.3 79.5 79.8 80. 1 80.4 80.6 79.5 80.1 79.8 80.7 81.6 81.7 80.1 80.7 83.6 83.1 82. 1 82.7 53.4 58.7 61.4 343 548 56.5 58.6 62.3 61.7 61.7 59.6 60.7 60.2 66.9 68.5 444 43.3 47.8 56.3 73.4 641 66.4 68.3 70.4 71.3 71.6 72.0 72.5 73.0 73.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalirtent credit e xtended Instalm snt credit liepiidated Net change5 in amount outstanding "P • JJ Jreriod Total i 19711972 1973_ 1974 1975 1976 1977 2 1978 Automobile Revolving 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 19, 200 495 7,985 19, 252 5,252 7,226 3,579 1,637 758 7,960 8, 147 8,398 8,523 8,563 9,062 8,700 9,028 9,006 8,846 9, 176 9, 112 19, 546 19, 896 19, 849 20, 576 20, 824 21, 358 21, 556 22, 037 21, 857 22, 384 22, 115 22, 308 5,215 5,397 5,409 5,622 5,715 5, 953 5,941 6, 140 6,010 6, 126 6,032 6, 125 7,545 7,698 7,566 7,840 7,919 8, 107 8, 100 8,291 8, 384 8,500 8,511 8,582 2,437 2,862 4,076 4, 106 4,280 4,207 3,466 3,632 3, 680 3,374 4,099 3,725 1,326 1,333 1?634 1,812 1,877 1,642 1,711 1,604 1,532 1,375 1,755 1,600 415 449 832 683 644 955 600 737 622 346 665 530 22, 832 6,889 1978: Jan Feb_ Mar_ _ Apr May June July Aug Sept___ 21, 983 22, 758 23, 925 24, 682 25, 104 25, 565 25, 022 25, 669 25, 537 25, 758 26, 214 26, 033 6,541 6,730 7,043 7,434 7,592 7,595 7,652 7,744 7,542 7, 501 7,787 7,725 1 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. 4,194 5,621 5,910 Revolving 1,044 1,174 2,003 1,970 1,340 2,170 6,248 7,478 1977: Dec... _ _ _ & Automobile 10, 257 14, 962 20, 218 9,489 7,765 21, 647 35, 278 44, 400 _ _ __ Nov 2 Dec - Total1 20, 818 23, 485 26, 699 31, 243 35, 616 41, 764 80, 508 97, 515 21, 862 24, 659 28, 702 33, 213 36, 956 43, 934 86, 756 104, 993 _ Revolving 32, 512 38, 081 43, 696 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 69, 700 36, 706 43, 702 49, 606 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 88, 900 Oct Automobile 789 787 817 276 676 381 793 300 138, 046 151, 749 173, 035 172, 765 180, 441 211, 028 254, 071 298, 700 _ _ __ Total * 127, 136, 152, 163, 172, 189, 218, 254, 2 Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Growth in loans and investments slowed further in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,000 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,000 TOTAL -LOANS AND INVESTMENTSr 800 BOO 600 600 400 400 200 200 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES 100 100 80 80 INVESTMENT IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 60 60 40 40 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 1976 1975 1977 •'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OP MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All member ban ks Allc ommereial t>anks 1 Borrowiiigs (milL oans Investntients ILeserves 2 3 lions of dollars, Total unadji isted) 8 loans and Total ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other invest- cluding cial and NonReSeaernment secuTotal Total ments inter- industrial securities borrowed quired sonal rities bank "PpTinrl 1971 1972 1973 1974___ 1975 1976 1977 1978 *_. 1977: Dec 485. 7 558. 0 633. 4 691. 1 721.8 785. 1 870.6 967.3 870.6 320. 9 378. 9 449.0 500.2 496.9 538. 9 617,0 709.0 617.0 116.2 130.4 156.6 183.5 176.2 5 179. 7 8 201. 4 228. 9 6 201. 4 60. 6 62. 6 54.5 51. 1 80. 1 98.0 95. 6 88.4 95.6 104.2 116.5 129. 9 139. 8 144.8 148.2 158.0 169.9 158.0 31. 17 31.34 34.91 36.57 34.68 34.93 36. 14 41.51 36. 14 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July ^ _ _ _ Aug» Sept*_ _ _ Oct »_ Nov v Dec * 881.2 887.7 894. 1 909. 0 921.7 932.2 940.7 944. 6 952.4 960.9 966.5 967. 3 625. 1 628.4 637.2 647. 6 659.7 667.8 675. 1 680.2 687.3 696. 8 706.8 709.0 203.8 205.8 209. 8 212.4 217.9 219.0 220. 8 222.8 224.6 227. 0 228.9 228. 9 96.5 99.4 96. 1 98.3 97.9 100.2 100.6 97.9 97. 2 95.2 90.3 88.4 159.6 159.9 160. 8 163. 1 164. 1 164.2 165. 0 166.5 167.9 168. 9 169.4 169. 9 36.61 36.93 36.67 36.95 37.26 37.73 38. 19 37.91 38. 17 38.43 39.73 41.51 __ ___ _ 1 2 4 _ __ __ Data are for end of period. Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 3 Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Eegulations D and M. 28 1978 31.04 30.29 33.61 35.84 34. 55 34.88 35.57 40. 64 35.57 30. 98 31.06 34.61 36.31 34.42 34.66 35.95 41.28 35.95 107 1,049 1,298 703 127 62 558 874 558 41 32 13 12 54 134 54 36. 12 36.52 36.34 36.39 36.05 36.63 36.88 36.77 37. 11 37. 15 39. 03 40.64 36.34 36.69 36.47 36.80 37.04 37.55 38.00 37.74 37.97 38. 26 39. 50 41.28 481 405 344 539 1,227 1, 111 1, 286 1, 147 1, 068 1,261 722 874 32 52 47 43 93 120 143 188 191 221 185 134 4 During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due 1 a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large ban) 5 Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31, 197 e Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $0.2 billion in December 1977. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Internal 1 Credii j market i unds Total Tntfll Longterm 2 Short-3 term Other Total Purchase of physical assets 4 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 1970 1971 1972 1973..1974 1975 1976 _ 1977__-_ 1043 127. 1 161.7 199. 8 190.8 143.8 205. 0 239. € 58.9 68.6 80.8 83.8 75.7 106.8 124.7 135.3 45.5 58.5 80.9 115.9 115.1 37.0 80.3 103.6 40.7 44. 5 58. 3 72.7 81.8 37.0 58.2 78.7 32. 1 40.6 40.6 37.0 39. 1 49.3 48.8 46.2 8.6 3.9 17.6 35.7 42.6 12.3 9.5 32.6 4.8 14. 1 22.7 43.3 33.4 .0 22.0 24.9 95.9 119.6 145. 8 185. 6 179.0 131. 9 184.9 212.3 80.3 86.0 100.3 123.3 134.7 99.9 141.2 164.6 15.6 33.6 45.6 62.3 44.4 32.0 43.7 47.8 8.4 7.5 15.9 14.2 11.8 11.9 20. 1 26.7 1977: I. II _ III IV 244. 3 198.6 266.0 247. 1 123.8 134.9 145.5 137.3 120.5 63.7 120. 6 109.9 75.9 63.7 80. 1 95.2 34.4 35.3 53.5 61.5 41.6 28.5 26.6 33.7 44. 6 -.0 40.5 14.7 214.6 177.3 234. 6 222. 7 152.5 162.4 175. 2 168. 0 62. 1 14.9 59.4 54.7 29.6 21.3 31.4 24.4 1978: I II III 283.9 274.1 289. 4 127.2 144. 1 151.6 156.7 130.0 137.8 102.2 82.8 80.2 40.3 53.7 54.5 61.9 29. 1 25.7 54.5 47.2 57.6 263.3 260.8 272.6 179.8 199.9 194.8 83.5 61.0 77.8 20.6 13.2 16.8 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. 23 Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances, and Government loans. 4 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Cur rent liabilities Curreiat assets End of period Total SEC series:2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series:3 1974 1975 1976 1977-.. __ . 1977: I... II III IV__._ 1978: !___ II III _ _ _ Cash U.S. Notes governand Invenment actories securi- counts ties receivable Other current assets Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio l + {_£, 492. 3 529.6 599. 3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71. 1 7.7 11.0 10. 6 12.8 12.3 206. 1 221. 1 248.2 288.5 322. 1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326. 0 375.6 450.9 530. 4 211.3 220. 5 282.9 340.3 402. 3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128. 1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246. 9 260.3 1. 615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 734.6 756.3 823. 1 900. 1 73.0 80.0 86.8 94.2 11.3 19.6 26.0 20.9 265.5 272. 1 292.4 325.7 318.9 314.7 341.4 375.0 65.9 69.9 76.4 84.3 451.8 446. 9 487. 5 543.2 272.3 261.2 273. 2 306.8 179. 5 185. 7 214.2 236.3 282. 8 309.5 335.6 357.0 1.626 1.693 1.688 1.657 842.0 856.4 880.3 900. 1 80. 8 83. 1 83.4 94.2 26.8 22. 1 21.5 20.9 304. 1 312.8 326.9 325.7 352. 1 358.8 367.5 375.0 78.3 79.6 81.0 84.3 502.6 509. 5 528. 9 543.2 280.2 286.8 297.8 306.8 222.4 222. 7 231. 1 236.3 339.5 346.9 351.4 357.0 1.675 1.681 1.664 1.657 924.2 953.5 992.4 88.5 90.9 91.4 20.9 19.7 18.6 338.3 356.8 377.8 389. 7 399. 1 415.5 86.8 87.0 89.0 570.4 590.8 624. 5 317.2 331.3 349.9 253.2 259.4 274.6 353.8 362.7 367.9 1.620 1.614 1.589 pt&l current assets divided by total current liabilities. 1 on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. 1 on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. Total Notes and accounts payable NOTE.—SIC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell slightly in late January. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 1978 1970 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum) Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ___ 1978 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May- _ June _ July Aug. _ _ Sept__ _ Oct Nov Dec 6 1979: Jan Week ended: 1979: Jan 6 13 20 27 Feb 3* U.S. Tre asury secunity yields Constant inaturities 2 3-month J bills 3-year 10-year High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount municipal mercial rate Aaa (N.Y. bonds paper, bonds (Standard F.R. 4-6 Bank)* & Poor's)3 (Moody's) months 7. 041 7. 886 5.838 4.989 5.265 7.221 6.448 6.457 6.319 6.306 6. 430 6.707 7,074 7. 036 7.836 8. 132 8.787 9. 122 9.346 6.95 7. 82 7.49 6.77 6.69 8.29 7.61 7.67 7.70 7.85 8.07 8.30 8. 54 8.33 8.41 8.62 9.04 9.33 9.50 6.84 7.56 7.99 7.61 7.42 8.41 7.96 8.03 8.04 8. 15 8.35 8.46 8. 64 8.41 8.42 8.64 8.81 9. 01 9. 10 5. 18 6. 09 6.89 6.49 5.56 5.90 5.60 5.51 5.49 5.71 5.97 6. 13 6. 18 5.98 5.93 5. 95 6.03 6.33 6.25 7.44 8. 57 8.83 8.43 8. 02 8.73 8.41 8.47 8.47 8.56 8.69 8.76 8.88 8.69 8.69 8.89 9.03 9. 16 9.25 8. 15 9.87 6. 33 5.35 5.60 7.99 6. 79 6.80 6.80 6.86 7. 11 7.63 7.91 7.90 8.44 9.03 10.23 10.43 10. 32 9.388 9.316 9. 411 9.289 9.324 9. 58 9.60 9.59 9. 42 9. 16 9. 14 9. 15 9. 16 9. 04 8.94 6.40 6.30 6.30 6. 13 6. 10 9.26 9.26 9.28 9. 24 9. 19 10.55 10.40 10.36 10. 16 10.07 *3 Rate on new issues within period. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by3 the Treasury Department. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 6.45 7.83 6.25 5.50 5. 46 7.46 6-6/2 6/2-6/2 6/2-6/2 6^2— 6H 6/2-7 7-7 7/4— 1% 73/i-S 9/2-9/2 9/2-9/2 9K-9H 9/2-9K 9/2-9/2 9/2-9/2 9K-9/2 Prime rate charged by banks 4 8.03 10.81 7.86 6.84 6.83 9.06 7%-S 8-8 8-8 8-8 8-8/2 9-9 9-9H 9^-9% lOH— ll]4 11*4-11% \\%-\\% Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)* 7. 95 8.92 9.01 8.99 9.01 9.54 9. 15 9. 18 9.26 9.30 9.37 9.46 9.57 9.70 9.73 9.83 9.87 10.02 1 1%-11% n%-n% n%-i\% 9/2- 2 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflect] fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymt at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable wiuprior rates. 6 Not charted. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in December and January. INDEX, DEC31,1965= INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 80 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 20 20 EARNING S-PRIC6 RA1IO C)N COMMON 51OCKS (58. ') IS / 10 x*v. .«• •»«• /•X V. 10 "••-r^*' — ,_^x-1 ^^ "^ - 5 5 n I I 1970 I I , I 1971 1972 1 1 1 1 I 19 74 1973 1 ! 1 1976 1975 1 1 1977 Common s tock yields (perc ent) » Com mon stock prices ' New Yorl c Stock Exeilange indexe s(Dec. 31, 1965 = 50) * Composite Industrial 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May__ Jimp July Aug. Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979: Jan Week ended: 1979: Jan 6 13 20 27 Feb 3 Transportation Utility Finance e+ , & Poor's DowJones composite Dividendindustrial index ratio average 3 (1941-43= 10) * 57.42 43. 84 45. 73 54.46 53. 69 53. 70 49.89 49.41 49. 50 51. 75 54.49 54.83 54. 61 58.53 58. 58 56.40 52.74 53. 69 9 55. 77 63.08 48. 08 50. 52 60.44 57. 86 58.23 53. 45 52.80 52.77 55.48 59. 14 59.63 59.35 64.07 64.23 61. 60 57.50 58.72 61.31 37.74 31. 89 31. 10 39.57 41.09 43. 50 39. 09 38.90 38. 95 41. 19 44.21 44. 19 44. 74 49. 45 50. 19 46.70 41.80 42. 49 43.69 37.69 29.79 31.50 36.97 40.92 39.22 39. 06 39.02 39. 26 39. 69 39.47 39.41 39.28 40.20 39.82 39.44 37.88 38. 09 38.83 70. 12 49.67 47.14 52. 94 55.25 56. 65 50. 91 50.60 51. 44 55. 04 57.96 58.31 57. 97 63.28 63.22 60.42 54.95 55.68 57. 59 923. 88 759. 37 802. 49 974. 92 894. 63 820. 23 781. 09 763. 57 756. 37 794. 66 838. 56 840. 26 831. 72 887. 93 878. 64 857. 69 804. 29 807. 94 837. 39 107; 43 82. 85 86. 16 102. 01 98. 20 96.02 90.25 88.98 88.82 92. 71 97.41 97.66 97. 19 103. 92 103. 86 100. 58 94.71 96. 11 99.71 3.06 4.47 4.31 3. 77 4. 62 5. 28 5. 32 5.49 5. 62 5.42 5. 20 5.19 5. 25 4.93 4.97 5. 11 5.45 5.39 5.29 54.74 55.47 55. 85 56. 37 56. 25 60. 16 60. 98 61. 42 62.00 61. 76 43. 19 43. 57 44.00 43.95 43. 33 38.19 38.49 38. 87 39. 22 39. 55 56.23 57. 56 58.03 58.03 57. 73 821. 829. 839. 849. 844. 98.06 99. 19 99. 82 100. 74 100. 40 5.33 5. 28 5. 25 5.24 5. 33 1 Average of daily closing prices. '3 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,600) listed OB the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. ' Includes 500 stocks. • Not charted. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 1 1 1978 COUNCil OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES. NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period i 42 77 02 24 45 Earningsratio 7. 12 11.59 9. 15 8. 90 10. 79 12.25 11.79 11.36 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation; 31 OUTLAYS AND According to the Budget submitted in January/ the budget deficit is estimated at $37.4 billion for fiscal year 1979 and at $29.0 billion for fiscal 1980. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 500 500 400 400 OUTLAYS 300 300 200 200 50 50 SURPLUS {*) OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 -100 -100 '1971 1973 1972 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period Fiscal year or period: 1969 1970 _ .__ 1971__ 1972__ 1973 1974__ _ _ _ 1975 1976— _ Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 (estimates) 2 1980 (estimates) 2 1 2 Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Federal debt ( end of period) Tntal 1 Held by the public 184. 5 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326.2 366. 4 94.7 402. 7 450.8 493.4 531.6 3.2 „ 187.8 193.7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264.9 281. 0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402. 0 456.0 502. 6 -2.8 -23.0 23.4 -14. 8 -4.7 45.2 -66. 4 -13.0 45.0 -48. 8 -37.4 -29. 0 367. 1 382.6 409. 5 437.3 468.4 486. 2 544. 1 631.9 646.4 709. 1 780.4 839.2 899.0 279.5 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346. 1 396.9 480.3 498. 3 551.8 610.9 650.9 689.9 Cumulative total first 3 months: Fiscal year 1978 Fiscal year 1979- 84.5 99.4 113.3 123. 2 -28. 8 -23.8 729. 2 797.7 572.5 626.2 _ _ __ _ Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 19 32 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. ^EDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND WUTLAYS BY FUNCTION According to the January Budget, budget receipts for fiscal 1979 are estimated at $456.0 billion and outlays at $493.4 billion. Corresponding figures for fiscal 1980 are $502.6 billion and $531.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 OUTLAYS 400 400 300 NONDEFENSE 300 ^-»-- 200 200 100 100 I I v 1971 1972 I J_ 1973 1975 1974 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] (Outlays Rece ipts Nationa i defense Period Fiscal year or period: 1969 _ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975__ _ 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978__ _ 1979 (estimates)11. 1980 (estimates) . Total 187.8 193.7 188.4 _ 208.6 __ 232. 2 264.9 281.0 300.0 .._ 81.8 357.8 402.0 456. 0 502.6 Cumulative total first 3 months : Fiscal year 1978 _ __ 'Fiscal year 1979 _ 1 84.5 99.4 Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total Interna- Health and In- Other Depart- tional income ment of affairs security terest Defense, military 184.5 196.6 211. 4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450.8 493.4 531. 6 79.4 78.6 75.8 76.6 74. 5 77.8 85. 6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 114. 5 125.8 77.9 77. 1 74.5 75. 1 73.2 77. 6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 111. 9 122.7 4.6 4.3 54.9 60.0 70.3 71.0 63.9 70.5 75.4 81.7 92.8 107.4 118.0 127.0 34.5 145.2 161.1 182. 1 204.2 11.6 13. 1 32.6 37.7 113.3 123.2 25.4 27.9 24.9 27.8 1. 1 87.2 90.4 86. 2 94.7 103.2 119.0 122. 4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 203. 6 227.3 36.7 32.8 26. 8 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 40. 4 48.6 8.5 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1980. Total 4. 1 4.7 4. 1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 7.3 8.2 .6 49.0 56. 1 70.1 81.4 91.8 106.5 136.3 160.9 41.5 176. 7 189.9 208.0 232.5 15. 8 18.3 19. 6 20.6 22.8 28.0 30.9 34.5 38. 0 44.0 52. 8 57.0 35.7 39.3 41.8 48.8 53.9 51. 6 66.5 76. 1 21.5 85.7 105.9 110.8 108.0 45.8 49.4 11.9 14.3 29. 1 31. 1 7.2 Sources: Depaitment of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1978, Federal receipts rose $17.0 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $16.2 billion" yielding a deficit of $22.8 billion. According to preliminary data for the fourth quarter, expenditures rose $17.fa billion/ receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 50 50 SURPLUS ^3 £23 H DEFICIT ® » ® "fei"® t2£J l^l "^ ^J ^ -50 1 1I HI 1 1 v?75 -100 1970 1971 1974 1973 1972 0 i l l -50 1 1 — iflfl 1977 1976 1978 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal <Grovernm ent receip ts Period Indirect Personal Corporate business • f o v QTlH Total nontax profits tax and tax nontax receipts accruals accruals F(sderal G<Dvernmeitit expen ditures GrantsSubsidies Less: ContriPurin-aid less Wage butions chases Trans- to State Net current accruals for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less social inand ments local paid Govern- dissurance services government en- bursements terprises ments Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1975 283.5 1976 313.9 1977 365.3 1978 * 413.8 127. 1 136.9 165.9 186.3 42. 1 51.9 58.8 67.2 22.2 24.2 24.5 27.2 92. 1 100.9 116. 1 133. 1 328.7 371.5 412.0 450.6 118.0 126.2 140.7 151. 1 134.3 156.5 169.6 181. 8 48.4 57. 5 66.2 74. 6 21.9 25.2 28.4 33. 7 5.7 6.2 7.0 9.4 -.4 .0 .0 .0 — 45. 3 -57. 6 —46. 7 -36.8 Calendar year: 1975 286.2 331.4 1976- . __ 1977 374.5 1978 * 431.6 125.4 146. 8 169.4 193.2 42. 8 54.8 61.3 71.7 23.9 23.4 25.0 27.9 94.2 106.4 118. 7 138.7 356.8 385.2 422. 6 461.0 123. 1 129.9 145. 1 154.0 149. 1 161.6 172.7 185.3 54.6 61. 1 67.4 76.6 23. 2 26.8 29. 1 35.5 6.8 5. 8 8.3 9.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 -70. 6 -53. 8 — 48. 1 -29.4 366.6 371.4 374. 3 385.5 168.3 167.0 167.6 174.8 58.4 61.8 62.0 62.9 24.4 24.8 25.4 25.6 115.5 117.7 119. 3 122.2 403. 9 411.7 430.7 444. 1 138.3 142. 9 146.8 152.2 168.6 168. 2 175.7 178.3 62. 1 65.4 70.9 71. 1 28. 1 28. 8 28.9 30. 7 6.7 6.4 8.4 11.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 -37.3 -40. 3 -56.4 -58.6 1978: I 396.2 IL-__ 424. 7 IIL_ 441.7 IV *__ 176.8 186.7 199.7 209.7 59.6 72.6 73.6 26.5 27.9 28.2 29.0 133.3 137. 6 140. 1 144. 0 448. 8 448. 3 464.5 482.3 151.5 147.2 154.0 163. 4 180.2 180.7 188.8 191. 4 73.9 75.9 77. 5 79. 1 33. 2 34.6 36. 3 37.9 10. 0 10.0 8.0 10.5 .0 .0 .2 .0 -52.6 -23.6 -22. 8 1977: I II- — III__ IV___ Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] In dustrial produ(ition (se*isonally adjuste d) Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1978: Feb.... Mar— Apr May „ June-.. July... Aug — Sept*~ Get »-. Nov.. Dec ».. 119. 7 129.8 129. 3 117. 8 129. 8 137. 1 145. 1 139.2 140. 9 143.2 143. 9 144. 9 146. 1 147. 1 147.8 148,6 149.5 150.4 Ger- Japan France many Italy 130. 7 143. 0 147. 5 139. 6 146. 7 152.6 167. 2 190. 5 183. 1 163.9 182. 0 189. 5 135 145 148 139 149 152 138.7 147.7 145. 1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 122.7 134.6 140. 6 127. 6 143.5 145. 0 113,2 123.0 120.0 114. 3 117.4 122.8 156. 7 157.5 158.2 156. 9 158.4 159.5 158.4 163.7 163.8 164. 6 195.4 199.5 199.7 152 156 160 155 154 i t\t{ 152 151 152 151 155 157 156 159 159 160 146.8 146.8 144.2 144.5 146. 0 144.8 144.7 146. 5 154. 1 154. 1 124.5 123.7 128.4 126. 7 128.7 128. 9 129.2 127.9 126,0 127.2 United CanStates ada 200.3 200.5 199.7 201.8 { 203.4 156 156 159 203.1 204.8 Con sumer orices (u nadjuste< 1) United United CanKing- States1 ada dom 125.3 133. 1 147. 7 161. 2 170.5 181.5 195.4 188.4 189.8 191. 5 193.3 195. 3 196.7 197.8 199.3 200.9 202.0 202. 9 GerJapan France many 132. 3 131. 1 147. 9 140. 7 184.0 160. 0 205.8 178.9 224. 9 196. 1 243.0 213.9 121.2 130.3 144.5 160. 1 172. 1 185.9 202.5 247. 249. 252. 253. 202.4 252. 205.4 253. 195.3 197.5 197.9 200. 7 1 4 1 5 1 1 205.5 253.3 205. 2 256.4 207. 3 256.8 209.0 254. 1 209. 6 119. 0 127.2 136. 1 144.2 150.7 156.6 160. 7 159.7 160. 3 160.7 161. 1 161. 5 161. 5 161.0 160. 6 160.6 161. 1 161.8 224. 4 226.4 228. 9 231. 1 232. 8 235.7 237. 1 238. 6 240.8 242. 1 United King- Italy dom 121.0 1340 159.7 186.8 218. 1 137.6 150.3 174.4 216.5 273.9 277.4 280.0 306.2 252.4 292.4 255.2 286.0 316.6 308.1 312.6 314. 4 316.8 318.2 282. 7 285. 1 286.8 288.3 292.9 295.5 320.3 321.6 323. 1 298. 1 325.3 328.0 300.3 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commt_, of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Research, in International Economic Indicators. * Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Bureau U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merc]mndise e xports Merc tiandise i mports Domesti c exports5 Period Total domestic and foreign Total * 2 exports G€>neral im ports Food, Crude Food, Crude bever- matebever- mate- Manufac2 rials rials ages, ages, tured Total and and to- and to- and goods bacco fuels bacco fuels F.a.s. valu e 5 Monthly average; 1973 5,902 1974 ... 8, 159 1974 1975 1976 1977^1978 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5, 294 8, 159 8,045 8,966 8,842 9,596 9,456 10, 096 9, 912 11,965 11, 756 1,269 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,719 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 1,281 1,531 1,604 1,693 1,897 1,963 1,844 2,008 1,851 1,798 1,562 1,696 1,402 1,282 1,483 1, 699 1,781 1, 930 1,636 1,758 1,881 1,971 2, 107 2,036 5,790 8^116_ Total (ca.f. value) 4 3,750 4,684 6,131 9,000 112 257 5,294 8,354 5,913 8,048 6,437 10, 084 6,679 12, 307 7,879 14, 336 770 1, 120 892 2,653 F.a.s. value 8 892 2,672 827 2,718 991 3,457 1, 186 4,463 1,312 4,329 4,602 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,363 —841 —257 —195 9,000 312 8,654 918 853 10, 825 —581 —488 — lf 229 13, 130 —2, 297 2,211 —3, 034 15, 261 -2, 476 2,371 -3, 297 6 S 739 6,674 7, 145 7,562 7,548 7, 751 7,859 8,232 8,720 8,735 8, 916 8,876 1,276 1,363 1,370 1,370 1,313 1, 135 1,323 1,141 1,298 1,423 1,313 1, 457 3,912 4, 362 3,928 4, 139 4,461 4,221 4,147 4,414 4,666 4,597 4,730 4,548 7,264 8,464 8, 043 8,636 8,247 8, 020 8,864 8, 195 8, 748 8,826 8, 557 8,506 13, 157 15, 381 14, 570 15, 436 14, 894 14, 607 15, 748 15, 030 16, 144 16, 068 16, 177 16, 174 12, 381 14, 440 13, 699 14, 496 13, 992 13, 723 14, 779 14, 090 15, 120 15, 138 15, 207 15, 189 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supis and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. •* Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. • Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. TT SJA(cost» insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. Manufactured goods Mer chandise trade balance Exports Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports less (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less imless imimports ports (cus- ftports\ (c.Lf.) toms (f.a.s.) value) Custorris value 5,811 8,045 1978: Jan 10, 014 Feb 9,922 Mar 10, 912 Apr 11, 635 May 11,754 June___ 12, 126 July__ 11, 793 Aug_ 12, 469 Sept_ 13, 429 Oet.___ 13, Oil Nov 13, 262 ^ Dec.... 13, 148 3 -195 -2,455 -2, 367 -4, 649-4, 518 -2, 915 -2, 787 -2,983 -2,861 -2, 358 -2,238 -1, 702 -1,597 -3, 082-2, 987 -1,706 -1,621 - 1, 824-1, 691 -2, 196 -2, 128 -2, 061 -1,946 -2, 117 -2, 040 -229 -841 -3, 143 -5, 459 -3f 658 -3, 801 -3, 141 -2,482 -3, 956 -2, 561 -2, 715 -3,058 -2, 915 -3,025 6 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1978, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $7.4 billion from $8.0 billion in the third quartet For the year 1978, the deficit was $34.2 billion compared with $31.1 billion for 1977. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 1970 1977 1973 1971 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] M erchandise Period 1972 1973 1974— 1975 1976— _ 1977 1978" Exports Imports 29, 477 30, 629 31, 009 29, 461 -36,502 -37,263 -38, 277 -39,664 1978: !___ 30, 689 35, 092 36, 955 39, 083 41, 808 42, 812 44, 918 46, 470 !!___ III.. IV p. Net balance 49, 381 -55,797 -6,416 71, 410 -70,499 911 98, 306 -103,649 -5,343 107, 088 -98,041 9, 047 114, 694 -124, 047 -9,353 120, 576 -151,706 -31, 130 141, 819 -176,008 -34, 189 1977:1--!!___ III- IV__ Invcsstment inicome3 12 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 3 -7,025 -6,634 -7,268 -10,203 Receipts Payments 14, 694 -6, 544 21, 697 9, 655 27, 541 -12,084 25, 359 - 12, 564 29, 244 13, 311 32, 100 - 14, 593 7,796 8,088 8,220 7, 997 -3,197 -3,601 -3,610 -4, 185 -11, 119 9,381 -4, 503 -7,720 10, 003 -5,420 -7, 963 9,946 -5, 396 -7, 387 for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts 8,150 -3,621 -3,028 12, 042 -2,287 -3,086 15, 457 -2,080 -3, 105 12, 795 -876 -2,522 15, 933 312 -2,245 17, 507 1,334 -3,044 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and serv-] ices Remittances, pensions, and other uni1 J}"t"£*Tfl IddiCi dii1 transfers 1 Balance on current account 2,789 -2,125 -3,854 -5,979 6,885 3,185 10, 766 -3,881 1,719 8,905 -7, 186 3,975 4,617 23, 060 -4,615 18, 445 4,339 4,714 9,361 -5, 022 4,749 - 10, 585 -4, 708-15,292 -1,126 -1,243 -1,277 -1, 064 -2, 756 -2, 683 -2, 886 -6,967 4,599 4,487 4,610 3,812 568 295 467 5 -907 -759 -677 -701 1,136 1, 171 1, 260 1, 183 4,878 4,583 4,550 210 592 177 -823 -626 -802 1,361 -5,576 -1,282 -6,858 1,468 -1,785 -1,317 -3, 102 1,563 -2,557 -1,267 -3,824 -1,630 -1,440 -1,609 -5,903 NOTE.—Merchandise trade data for 1978 revised; other data to be revised lat« Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. .S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued •^.. falling by $5.7 billion in ihe second quarter, foreign official assets in the U.S. rose by $4.9 billion in the third quarter. The accumulation of U.S. private assets abroad accelerated from $5.3 billion in the second quarter to $9.7 billion in the third quarter. This rise was partially offset by an increase in the accumulation of other foreign assets in jhe U.S. from $6.1 billion in the second quarter to $9.7 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET A \ -30 1970 1977 1971 1978 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capita 1 outflow (-)] Fore ign assets in the U.S., net [inci"ease/capilbal inflow (-HP Foreigii official asssets Period Total U.S. Other U.S. official U.S. private2 reserve Govern- assets assets 1 2 ment assets 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 - 12, 475 2,348 - 14, 461 32 - 22, 823 209 -34,712 - 1, 434 -39,444 -607 -50,608 -2>530 -34,650 -231 1977: I II III_._ IV.... - 1, 334 - 12, 003 -6,615 -14,700 1978: I -15,036 II -6, 134 I I I _ _ _ -11,006 Total - 1, 884-12,939 22, 987 - 1, 568- 12, 925 21, 696 -2,644 -20,388 18, 663 366 -33,643 34, 677 -3,470 -35,368 15, 550 -4,213 -43,865 36, 969 -3,679 -30,740 50, 869 26, 895 10, 705 6,299 10, 981 6,907 18, 073 37, 124 27, 405 -3,907 10, 322 10, 991 5, 145 12, 364 10, 257 23, 696 5,259 8, 643 13, 080 18, 897 35, 480 13, 746 3 2,490 -949 388 6 -795 -11,214 14, 064 151 - 1, 098 -5,668 14, 251 -838 - 13, 862 20, 065 5,451 7,884 8,246 15, 543 4,946 -2,962 7,467 6, 180 7,914 6, 005 15, 153 4,522 246 -896 -14,386 18, 095 15, 760 14, 956 406 — 5, 685 -5, 373 329 -1, 176 -5, 287 4, 904 180 -1,494 -9, 692 14, 612 4,554 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDE), convertible currencies, and the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Total Assets of Other foreign foreign official assets reserve agencies 2,336 6,090 9,708 Stati stical discre pancy Allocations of Total special (sum of drawing the rights items (SDR) with sign reversed) U.S. official reserve Of which: assets, net 1 Seasonal (unadadjust- justed, ment end of discrep- period) ancy 9,822 717 710 - 1, 966 -2,725 - 1, 684 5,449 9,300 -927 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 131 19, 1,600 -179 19, 622 -4,751 -2,229 18, 1,602 2,276 19, 120 156 988 312 3,798 160 19, 192 -1 18, 864 8, 830 218 -2, 411 18, 850 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income . Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment .•••'• Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations. Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budge: Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $1.30 (single copy). Subscription price: $15.00 per year; $3.75 additional for foreign mailing. qc **° U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1979 O—39-717