Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1949
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Congress, 1st Session &, Loots rubric Libran.' F.fjBEfW rtpi Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators JANUARY 1949 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING WASHINGTON : 1949 OFFICE JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist To the Members of Congress: From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it available to the Joint Committee. Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information. Since nothing contained Digitized 11 for FRASER in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they have urged that the material be made available to the general public. Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past several months provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators. The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to release Economic Indicators each month as a committee print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome. Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Letter of Transmitted Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report, United States Congress, Washington, D. C. DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public. In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services. We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult. We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide circulation to this material. Sincerely yours, Chairman. ^^^^ /W Vice Chairman. A. in Contents THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Page 1 PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. . Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Employment in Business and Government Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Exports and Imports 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 29 30 31 THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget dollar total increased by 4 percent from the 1st half to the 2nd half of 1948. The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) 1948, FIRST HALF A N N U A L RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1948, SECOND HALF 1948, FIRST HALF Transfer paymenis - CONSUMERS EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES (-), RECElPTS(-t-) 0 CONSUMER SAVING EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL) CASH SURPLUS 61.9 *'» 1948, SECOND HALF Transfer payments • CONSUMERS j CONSUMER J SAVING EXCESS OF INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL) 57.3 ** TRANSFER PAfMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT. INCLUDES AN ADJUSTMENT OF + $ 2.8 BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND - $ 2.3 BILLION IN SECOND HALF. SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A. CASH SURPLUS PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES In November consumer prices declined for the second straight month. The drop in food prices accounted for the decline, as other prices showed only slight changes. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 225 225 200 - 200 175 150 125 100 100 1939 1940 1942 1941 ^ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, /C£, 1944 1943 AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, 1945 1946 1947 1948 NOT SHOWN ON CHART. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39=1001 All items 1 Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average-1947: October November December 1948: January... February March April May June July__. August September October November 1 _ __ _ .._ .. . __ _ Food Apparel 99. 4 100. 2 105. 2 116. 5 123. 6 125. 5 128. 4 139. 3 159. 2 95. 2 96. 6 105. 5 123. 9 138. 0 136 1 139. 1 159 6 193. 8 100. 5 101. 7 106. 3 124.2 129. 7 138. 8 145. 9 160. 2 185. 8 104. 3 104. 6 106. 2 108. 5 108. 0 108 2 108. 3 108. 6 111.2 163. 8 164. 9 167. 0 201. 6 202 7 206. 9 189. 0 190. 2 191.2 114. 9 115. 2 115. 4 168. 8 167. 5 166. 9 169. 3 170. 5 171. 7 173. 7 174. 5 174. 5 173. 6 172. 2 209. 7 204. 7 202. 3 207. 9 210.9 214. 1 216. 8 216. 6 215. 2 211. 5 207. 5 192. 1 195. 1 196. 3 196. 4 197. 5 196. 9 197. 1 199. 7 201.0 201.6 201. 4 115. 9 116. 0 116. 3 116. 3 116.7 117. 0 117. 3 117. 7 118. 5 118,7 118. 8 Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services. NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Source: Department of Labor. Rent WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices dropped in December to a level slightly below December 1947. Farm and food prices accounted for most of the decline. Other than farm and food prices registered a small decrease in December. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE . 2.20 220 WEEKLY INDEX 200 200 x: FARM PRODUCTS 180 . ALL COMMODITIES 160 140 IOO 80 1939 1946 1942 1941 1940 1947 1948 1949 OCT. NOV. COUNCIL SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1926=100] All commodities Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1946 monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average . monthly average June 1947 monthly average 1948: January February March April -_ Mav ivio^ June July August September October Novemberl December Week ended:2 Dec 7 2 142 21 282 1 2 _ -- . -__ - _ ... __ _ . _ _ Farm products Foods Other than farm and foods 77. 1 78 6 87. 3 98. 8 121. 1 112. 9 152. 1 165. 7 160. 9 161. 4 162. 8 163. 9 166. 2 168. 7 169. 5 168. 7 165. 2 163. 9 162. 3 65. 3 67. 7 82.4 105. 9 148. 9 140. 1 181. 2 199. 2 185. 3 186. 0 186. 7 189. 1 196. 0 195.2 191.0 189.9 183. 5 180. 8 178.0 70.4 71. 3 82. 7 99.6 130. 7 112. 9 168. 7 179. 9 172.4 173. 8 176.7 177.4 181.4 188. 3 189. 5 186. 9 178. 2 174. 3 169. 8 81.3 83.0 89.0 95. 5 109. 5 105. 6 135.2 148. 3 147. 6 147.7 148. 7 149. 1 149. 5 151. 1 153. 1 153. 3 153. 1 153. 3 152.9 162. 4 161. 7 162. 5 162. 2 177.3 175. 9 179. 4 179.2 169. 7 168. 7 170. 0 169. 6 153. 4 153. 1 152. 8 152. 5 Estimates based on incomplete data. The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison. Source: Department of Labor. DEC. 1948 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Farm prices continued down from November to December, but less rapidly than during the two preceding months. The parity index again fell'l percentage point. PERCE NT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF 1910-14 AViIRAGE 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE _< 300 PRICES f\ RECEIVED >n,/-'-"" 250 S**l -^ \.-'X 4toh. •• —*l»fc> ^^*it** •••'-•'"•••*•• 300 250 / *\\ 200 *•*"""* / / ^~— I5U —*7 100 ICES PAID (INCL. INTEREST, TAXES) ^S ^ 200 PR 150 ^_* / *^y*^ » « — » -r^^r^" "'"'*'' PARIT Y V^-^^s,^ 100 RATIO * 50 50 i 0 1939 i 40 i 41 i 42 i 43 i M 44 45 J 1 | 1 1 F M A M J 1 J 1 1 1 1 A S O N D J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1946 1947 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R s Prices paid by Prices (includ- Parity ratio 3 received l farmers ing interest2 by farmers and taxes) Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average. _ 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average. _ _ 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average. 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: November December _ 1948: January February March April May June July August September October November December i i i i i 1 i i i i i F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D __ _ _ . _. 1 August 1909-July 2 1910-14-100. 3 __ 77 95 100 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 124 125 132 150 162 170 174 194 231 80 94 106 119 115 116 120 120 287 301 241 245 119 123 307 279 283 291 289 295 301 293 290 277 271 268 251 248 247 249 250 251 251 251 250 249 247 247 122 112 115 117 116 118 120 117 116 111 110 109 1914=100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 0 STOCK PRICES Stock prices in December averaged slightly lower than in November. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 175 MONTHLY AVERAGE RAILROADS 125 100 50 I 1939 SOURCE : I 40 I 41 STANDARD J 42 43 AND POOR'S I 44 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M - A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1946 1947 1948 45 CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39 = 100] Combined index l Period 1939 monthly average __ 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average.. 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average ^ 1947: November „ December 1948: January. February _ March April __ _ « _ _ _ _ May June July-. August September October _ November December ___ _ _ _ 94. 2 88. 1 80. 0 69. 4 91. 9 99. 8 121. 5 139 9 123. 0 123. 6 122. 4 120. 1 114. 2 116. 4 124. 6 130. 2 135. 1 131. 9 127. 1 125. 7 127. 8 120 4 119. 4 Industrials 1 94. 8 87. 9 80 4 71. 3 94. 1 101. 7 123. 3 143 4 128. 0 130. 3 129 2 126. 0 119. 2 121 8 130 8 136 9 142 7 138 9 133. 5 131 7 134 3 126 4 125. 5 Railroads * 74.7 71. 1 70. 6 66. 1 88. 7 101. 0 136. 9 143. 0 105. 3 100. 1 103. 9 106. 5 101. 9 105. 2 115.2 122. 6 125. 6 124. 7 119. 7 120. 4 120. 9 108. 8 105. 8 Utilities * 98. 6 95. 8 81. 0 61. 3 82. 1 89. 9 106. 1 120. 2 102. 9 97. 2 94. 0 95. 1 92. 6 93. 0 96.2 99. 2 100. 6 99. 5 97. 3 97. 3 97.4 94. 2 92.9 1 Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. 84471—49- LABOR FORCE Unemployment rose slightly in December as agricultural employment registered a seasonal decline. 1941 SOURCE.- 1944 1945 1946 1947 1946 1948 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Civilians employed Total labor force, including In nonIn agriarmed agricultural Total culture forces industries Period 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average___ average average..... average average___ Unemployed 380 890 140 820 608 50, 350 53, 960 52, 820 55, 250 58, 027 41, 250 45, 010 44, 240 46, 930 49, 761 9, 100 8,950 8, 580 8,320 8,266 1,470 11,260 11, 280 3,300 1, 440 5,560 670 1,040 2,270 2, 141 December 62, 219 61,510 60, 870 59, 204 58, 595 57, 947 50, 583 50, 609 50, 985 8,622 7,985 6,962 1,327 1,294 1,280 1,687 1,621 1,643 1948: January February March April May . « June July August September October November December 60, 455 61, 004 61, 005 61, 760 61, 660 64, 740 65, 135 64,511 63, 578 63, 166 63, 138 62, 828 57, 149 57, 139 57, 329 58, 330 58, 660 61,296 61, 615 61, 245 60, 312 60, 134 59, 893 59, 434 • 50,089 50, 368 50, 482 50, 883 50, 800 51, 899 52, 452 52, 801 51, 590 51, 506 51, 932 52, 059 7,060 6, 771 6,847 7,448 7,861 9,396 9, 163 8,444 8,723 8,627 7,961 7,375 1,241 1,226 1,236 1,236 1,238 1,261 1,293 1,325 1,366 1, 391 1,414 1,453 2, 065 2,639 2,440 2,193 1,761 2, 184 2,227 1,941 1,899 1,642 1,831 1,941 1947: October November. „_ __ 57, 65, 65, 60, 61, Armed forces NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GO¥ERNMEMT A decline of 200,000 in employment in nondurable goods manufacturing in November was largely offset by increased employment in trade. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 SOURCE: Department of MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 12 Council of Economic Advi Labor [Thousands of wage and salary workers 1 Durable manufacturing Period 59 monthly 13 monthly 16 monthly 17 monthly average average _ _ average average 17: October November December __ _ 18: January February. March April __ _ _ _ May June July August _ September October 2 November _ _ _ December 2 _ _ __ __ 1 __ Nondurable manufacturing Trade Transportation and Finance and Government (Federal, public service State, local) utilities Contract construction Mining 705 322 820 450 4, 610 5, 187 6,016 6, 278 3, 987 6,049 5, 607 5,450 2, 912 3, 619 4,023 4,059 1, 150 1,567 1, 661 1,921 845 917 852 911 8,083 8,062 8,080 9, 684 9,886 10, 288 6, 333 6, 343 6, 364 5, 414 5, 387 5, 638 4,097 4,077 4,071 2,099 2,046 1, 978 922 923 925 8,011 8,016 8,011 7, 786 7, 778 7, 993 8,007 8,253 8,403 8,279 8, 148 8,028 9, 622 9, 520 9, 598 9, 576 9, 617 9, 670 9, 646 9, 660 9, 733 9, 889 10, 035 10, 387 6, 403 6, 420 6, 426 6,472 6, 454 6, 389 6,399 6, 383 6, 379 6, 377 6, 376 6,354 5,498 5,492 5, 546 5, 577 5, 624 5, 607 5, 604 5, 650 5,801 5, 789 5, 714 5,994 4,020 4, 019 4, 032 3, 974 4,042 4, 105 4, 136 4, 139 4, 092 4,090 4,066 4,069 1,871 1,731 1,805 1, 933 2,052 2, 173 2,219 2,253 2, 239 2,206 2, 161 2, 109 922 914 924 817 935 950 922 952 948 941 940 937 4, 357 10, 297 7, 180 8,055 5, 720 7,084 7,335 7,846 8, 126 8, 194 8,274 8,256 8, 167 8,258 8, 164 8, 114 8, 122 8, 165 8, 188 8,294 8, 319 8,301 8,214 6, 7, 8, 9, Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending arest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this Die not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include aprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and lich are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Preliminary estimate. December data became available after chart was prepared. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Average weekly hours in major nonmanufacturing industries declined slightly in October. HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK • ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 40 r~~ 30 — - - 20 — :-: :— I0 - - _ —. - - - - 20 , , ,,,,, 1 1939 41 44 1939 41 45 44 45 RETAIL TRADE PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION MONTHLY A V E R A G E I0 1939 41 44 1939 41 45 44 45 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [Hours per week, selected industries] All manufacturing industries Period 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average average average average average average 1947: October November December.. 1948: January February March. April May__ June July August. _ _ _ September October 3 November 33 _ _ December 1 2 3 _ _ _ „ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ __ Bituminous coal mining Private building construction l Retail trade 37. 7 40. 6 45. 2 43. 4 40. 4 40. 3 27. 1 31. 1 43. 4 42. 3 41. 6 40. 7 32.6 34. 8 39. 6 39. 0 38. 1 37. 8 43.0 42. 5 40.3 40.3 40. 5 40.2 40. 6 40. 4 41. 2 39. 9 38. 5 41. 2 38. 1 36. 6 37.9 40.0 39. 5 39.7 40. 5 40. 2 40. 4 40. 1 39. 9 40. 2 39. 8 40. 1 39. 8 39. 9 39. 7 39 9 40. 9 38. 7 40. 6 2 27. 0 40. 3 39. 9 34.2 39.4 37. 9 38. 6 37. 1 37. 2 36.7 37. 1 37. 0 37. 1 37. 9 37.8 37. 8 37.5 37. 4 36.7 39.8 40.0 39.8 39. 8 39. 9 40. 3 40.8 41.0 40.2 39. 7 39. 5 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. WORK STOPPAGES Work stoppages in November were at the low levels which have been characteristic of the past, several months. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 25 MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 25 20 15 10 PEAK MONTH \ 1939 40 SOURCE: 41 42 43 44 45 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 Preliminary estimate. N* D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Man-davs idle " (thousands) Period 1939* Monthly average April— peak month 1940: Monthly average 1941" Monthly average April —peak month 1942: Monthly average 1943: Monthly average June —peak month 1944: Monthly average 1945: Monthly average October—peak month 1946" Monthlv average February —peak month 1947: Monthly average April —peak month 1948: April11 _ May 1 June1 July 1 August _ 1 _ _ September . October 1 1 November __ A S 0 1,484 4,902 _ - - _ 559 _ _ _ - _ - -_ _ - _ - _ _ _ __ _- _ _ __ Source: Department of Labor. 0. 28 . 10 .32 1. 13 349 .05 1, 125 4, 699 . 15 727 _ _ _ __ 1, 921 7, 113 Man-days idle as percent of estimated available working time 3, 168 8, 610 9, 672 22, 900 2, 993 8,540 8,000 4, 100 2,000 2, 200 1,750 2,400 2,000 1, 900 .62 .09 . 47 1.39 1. 43 4. 19 . 41 1. 19 1. 1 .6 .3 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 I! PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production continued at postwar peak levels in November. Preliminary indicate a decrease from November. December figures PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE Points in Total Index 250 h 250 200 I- 200 150 h -I 150 ^MANUFACTURES: NONDURABLE GOO MANUFACTURES: DURABLE GOODS X ''' J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: Board of Govei [1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total «= 100 Indexes, 1935-39=100 Period Manufactures Total industrial production Total Durable Nonduragoods ble goods 1935-39 monthly average. 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average L_ 1947: November December 1948 1 January February _ March April May June. July August _ _ _ September October.. November 1l December 1 10 Preliminary estimate. 100 239 203 170 187 192 192 192 193 194 191 188 192 192 186 191 192 195 194 197 100 258 214 177 194 198 199 198 201 201 200 195 197 198 191 197 199 202 200 197 100 360 274 192 220 224 224 230 229 226 229 217 221 222 219 222 224 230 228 226 100 176 166 165 172 177 179 173 178 180 177 177 178 179 169 176 178 179 177 173 Manufactures Mining 100 132 137 134 149 155 155 156 154 155 142 147 162 159 153 159 156 158 161 157 Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 85 85 87 87 86 87 82 84 84 83 84 85 87 87 86 Nondurable goods 47 83 78 77 81 83 84 81 83 84 83 83 83 84 79 82 83 84 83 81 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mining 15 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 23 24 22 22 25 24 23 24 24 24 24 24 N D DURABLE set new postwar highs. Production of lumber rly months of the year. PERCENT OF 1935- 39 A V E R A G E PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE RANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 400 700 600 200 F1 .f,*******^ I QQ ^ JL.* 0 1935-39 1943 !945 LJ 'J 1 1 l i 1 1946 1 t 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 IRON AND STEEL 300 MO NTHLY AVERAGE AM&Smi&k TT1 1 1 00 V I Ij o I I 1 ! 1 I 1 11 11 1935-39 1935-39 1943 K^^T -y^"V-' 1943 1945 1946 i II l1 1 l1 iii ,, ,,,! 1947 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE : EOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL. R E S E R V E SYSTEM. [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Transportation equipment Period 1935—39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: October November December 1948: January . . February March April May June July August September October. _ November 1 .... _ _ __ . „__ _ Lumber and products Iron and steel 100 734 487 232 230 100 130 110 130 144 100 208 183 150 195 232 234 244 143 150 153 204 202 205 244 232 240 237 218 223 235 231 227 236 231 155 150 151 145 142 140 142 149 143 147 150 203 203 207 177 207 207 200 207 214 221 222 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES In November most nondurables were being produced at rates in excess of the previous month. Textile production was somewhat lower. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLY AVERAGE 200 1935-39 43 45 1935-39 43 45 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 400 200 100 1935-39 43 IS35-39 45 43 45 SOURCE: BOARD OF -GOVEPWORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Textiles and products Period Petroleum and coal products Manufactured food products Chemical products 1935-39 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 100 153 146 162 163 100 185 235 173 193 100 145 151 150 157 100 384 284 236 251 1947 : October November December 164 172 163 204 205 208 156 158 158 248 251 254 1948 : January February March April May June July___ __ August __ September October 1 November 179 179 175 174 176 174 154 166 168 167 164 214 215 211 213 220 221 217 222 207 217 220 158 160 158 157 159 163 160 154 163 161 160 255 252 250 249 249 256 251 259 257 255 256 _ __ __ _ 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 12 NEW CONSTRUCTION The decline in the volume of construction activity in December was seasonal. The value of private construction was about equal to December 1947 while public construction was almost 40% higher. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 I.OOO - • :- A 1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947 S 0 N D 1946 *INCLUD£S PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: November December 1948: January. _ _ February March . April May _ _ T > r June J u l y _ _ ._ August September _ _ October November December 2 1 2 - __ ____ _ _ 526 1, 118 345 401 871 1, 165 1,432 1,320 1, 157 1,009 1, 166 1, 311 1,461 1, 616 1,715 1,799 1,782 1,705 1,559 1, 391 Total private Residential (nonfarm) 317 251 152 226 688 908 1, 141 1,097 948 837 940 1,024 1, 120 1,235 1,318 1, 354 1,332 1,263 1, 176 1,080 176 110 45 57 265 438 630 610 500 400 475 525 585 635 680 695 685 650 600 550 Other 141 141 107 169 422 469 511 487 448 437 466 499 535 600 638 659 647 613 576 530 Federal, State, and local l 208 867 193 174 184 257 291 223 209 172 226 287 341 381 397 445 450 442 383 311 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 84471—49- 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS * Starts have been declining since spring and in recent weeks have been running below the 1947 rate. THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 100 100 80 80 60 RURAL NONFARM 40 URBAN M J J 20 J J 1947 A 1946 M J J A S 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units (conventional and prefabricated) l Period Total 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: June July August September October November December 1948 1 Januarv February March April _ OU.O.J Mav _ _ _ June Julv 2 August 2 September October 2 2 November December 2 1 2 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _- - 64, 683 71, 125 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 52, 600 49, 600 75, 100 98, 800 99, 400 97, 500 93, 500 86, 300 81, 000 72, 000 65, 000 56, 000 Urban 41, 164 40, 125 42, 200 44, 500 47, 400 50, 300 53, 200 48, 000 36, 300 30, 400 28, 800 42, 000 54, 400 56, 700 54, 400 51, 600 Rural nonfarm 23, 520 31, 000 35, 000 36, 600 38, 900 43, 500 40, 800 31, 700 22, 500 22, 200 20, 800 33, 100 44, 400 42, 700 43, 100 41, 900 New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. 14 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to show a seasonal decline in the first quarter of 1949, but present estimates run above first quarter of 1948. Railroad and utility investment continues to increase in relative importance. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLAR^ 25 25 ANN UAL TOTALS 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS 1939 1945 1941 * NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Transportation Total i Period Manufacturing Electric and gas utilities Mining Railroad 1939 1941 1945 1946 1947 3 1948 5,200 8, 190 6,630 12, 040 16, 180 18, 840 1,930 3,400 3,210 5,910 7,460 8,180 380 680 440 560 690 770 280 560 550 570 910 1,310 280 340 320 660 800 690 480 710 630 1,040 1,900 2,610 1, 850 2,490 1,480 3,300 4,430 5,280 12, 15, 16, 19, 640 760 560 760 5,800 7,400 7,480 9, 160 600 640 720 840 640 880 920 1,200 720 920 800 760 1,320 1,800 2,000 2,480 3,600 4, 120 4,640 5,360 _ _ _- 16, 680 19, 280 19, 320 20, 040 7,200 8,560 8,360 8, 640 720 800 800 720 1,080 1,240 1,320 1,600 720 760 680 640 2,000 2,560 2,760 3, 120 4,960 5,360 5,440 5,320 _ _ _ _ 17, 560 7, 120 720 1, 480 600 2, 720 4, 880 _ — _ _ 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 4 Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter 4 _ Other Commercial and miscellaneous 2 _ 1 Excludes agriculture. 2 Includes trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Based on actual expenditures for first three quarters 4 and estimates for the fourth quarter. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 15 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New rate issues in 3rd quarter of 1948 were below those of the previous as a year ago. Three-fifths of the proceeds were earmarked for quarter but at the same plant and equipment. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 QUARTERLY AVERAGE 2.0 1.5 J.O SOURCE: 1945 1943 1939 SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 1943 1945 1946 1947 quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average 1947: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ _ 1 _ _ _ _. _ _ _ 16 Working capital Retirement of debt and stock l 529 287 1,476 1,689 1,528 81 77 270 820 1,068 43 35 159 529 806 39 42 111 291 261 448 210 1,206 869 460 1,018 1,605 1, 266 2,221 673 932 797 1,867 396 636 649 1, 542 278 296 148 325 344 672 469 354 1,614 1,663 1,266 1, 400 1,353 1,046 845 1,080 765 555 274 280 214 309 221 Includes small amount for other purposes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. Plant and equipment INVENTORIES AND SALES Retail sales through November showed a somewhat less than normal autumn rise. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS B.ILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE ,_ 30 30 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS DNAL VARIATION NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION «**" INVENTORIES* "'"1 20 20 yv*^/- —sj-**S ^~ 10 SALES* 1 0 _^_J^~X, ^f^=—^^ INVENTORIES * 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 BILL IONS i i i i i 1 i | i i i I I i l i 1 l i_ i i i 1946 1947 1 0 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1946 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1948 PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE OF DOLLARS DEPARTMENT STORES RETAIL 30 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 SALES 300 ** ,—. /"X^"* "V, INVENTORIES!^ 1 0 , ^— -j • 200 s S^~ INVENTORIES** Si VLES* 0 i i i i i 1 i i i i i * l i 1 i l 1 i i l i l II l i l 1 l l i l l 1946 1947 1 i i l i i 1 l i i i i 00 1948 1946 SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK- VALUE, END OF MONTH. i i i i i l i i i i 1948 BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Manufacturing l Period Inventories 3 Sales « i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1947 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale l Inventories 8 Retail 2 Sales 4 Inventories * Department stores Sales * 1 2 „, -- 18, 773 19, 468 21, 500 23, 432 27, 051 27, 055 27, 397 27, 627 28, 020 28, 501 28, 768 29, 064 29, 161 29, 437 29, 727 30, 236 30, 429 30, 710 30, 784 31, 000 3 4 10, 712 11, 132 13, 055 14, 634 15, 257 16, 597 18, 082 16, 554 17, 523 16, 552 16, 225 18, 117 17, 229 16, 777 17, 871 16, 403 18, 169 18, 781 18, 894 18, 200 4,309 4, 337 5, 172 5,823 7,068 7,233 7,342 7,467 7,545 7,850 7,885 7,869 7>777 7,801 7,953 7, 930 8, 100 8,243 8,394 8, 536 5, 338 5,575 6,321 7, 118 7,072 7,763 8,716 8,013 8,262 7,692 7, 121 7,726 7,652 7, 389 7,766 7,796 8, 161 8,286 8,376 8,248 Sales 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 5 Millions of dollars 946: March June September December^ „_ - . ^ ™ , _ , r ^ ^ ^ . 947: August September October November_ _December 948" January February _ March. April . May..June July August 6 September - _ __ _ October 6 6 November __ Inventories 8,023 8,917 9, 995 11, 049 11,944 12, 073 12, 435 12, 621 12, 953 13, 384 13, 751 14, 040 13, 907 13, 951 14, 065 14, 080 14, 145 14, 531 14,514 14, 652 7,796 8, 164 8,876 9,258 9,786 10, 264 10, 292 10, 426 10, 620 10, 464 10, 463 10, 658 10, 891 10, 620 10, 862 10, 857 10, 893 10, 968 10. 906 10, 775 177 210 226 274 228 232 252 273 285 289 306 313 309 297 284 273 268 275 282 304 255 275 272 276 284 294 279 302 303 286 286 285 306 310 312 316 311 312 306 287 6 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of month. 6 Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Not adjusted for seasonal variation. Adjusted for seasonal variation. Book value, end of month. Total for month. 17 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports fell 20 percent in November to the lowest level in two years as the maritime strike hit the East Coast. The value of imports fell 10 percent. MILLIONS OF .DOLLARS I,60C MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MONTHLY AVERAGES — 1,400 — 1,200 1,200 1,000 — 1,000 800 800 400 400 w. 200 1943 1936-38 X ** — J 1945 F M A M F M A M RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, RECORDED GENERAL MERC HA NOISE IMPORTS J J A 1948 1946 ND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY COUNCIL OF [Millions of dollars] Exports l Period 1936—38 monthly average-1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: August September October November December 1948* January February March April May June July August September October November! . 1 J __- _ _ -_ - _-- _ - - -- ___ - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Imports 2 Excess of exports 247 1, 080 877 849 1,278 207 282 346 410 478 40 798 531 439 801 1,265 1, 185 1,304 1, 189 1, 172 400 473 492 455 603 865 712 812 734 569 1,092 1,086 1, 138 1, 120 1, 102 1,014 1, 020 986 926 1,020 819 545 582 666 528 549 616 558 598 558 597 550 546 504 473 592 553 398 461 387 368 423 269 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy, 18 1,400 20O PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224 billion dollars, about 10 percent higher than for 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS 200 200 I 50 100 COMPENSATION OF 50 1944 1939 1945 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 1 1948 .-_ -__ _ -__ __ 72.5 182.4 181.7 179.3 202.5 224.0 Compensation of employees Corporate profProprietors1 its and invenand rental Net interest tory valuation income adjustment 47.8 121. 1 122.9 117.3 127.5 137.8 14.7 34.1 36.0 41.8 46.0 50. 7 4.2 3. 1 3.0 3.4 4.3 4. 7 5.8 24.0 19.8 16.8 24.7 30. 7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First'quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 197.3 199.3 200.6 212. 8 125.0 125.3 127.6 132.2 46.4 44.6 44.4 48.6 4. 1 4.2 4.4 4.5 ,21.8 (25.2 24.3 27. 5 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Fourth quarter 215. 1 221.7 227.4 2 () 133.7 134.2 140.6 142.8 50.6 51.8 50.2 50. 3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4. 9 26.2 30.9 31.6 (2) 1 2 Preliminary estimate. Not available. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948). 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits so far this year are running above the 1947 levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 ANNUAL TOTALS >v DIVIDEND PAYMENTS XXy$ > < ' < ^^\xs>:^^< K v ;>>^s^,';s v\\>w<;: PROFITS 1939 1929 SOURCE: 1943 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period 1929 1939 1943 1946 1947 1 1948 - _ _ _ _ _.- . _ 9.8 6. 5 24. 5 21.8 29.8 34. 0 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 14.2 9.0 11.7 13. 2 Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.4 12. 8 18. 1 20. 8 Dividend payments 5.8 3.8 4.5 5. 6 6.9 7. 6 Undistributed profits 2.6 1.2 5.9 7.2 11.2 13.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter.. _. _ 28.9 28.8 29. 1 32.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 12.7 17.5 17.5 17.7 19.7 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1 11. 1 10.8 10.8 12.6 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 31.4 33.4 35. 5 12. 2 13.0 13. 8 19.2 20.4 21. 7 7.3 7.3 7. 7 11.9 13. 1 14.0 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 19 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. PERSONAL INCOME Personal incomes continued to rise in November. for about one-half of the total rise. An increase in proprietors' income accounted BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 250 BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S 250 A M J J A S 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939- _ .1944 1945 _ _ _ _ 1946 1947 1 1948 -. 72.6 164.5 170.3 178. 1 195.2 211. 5 _ _ Salaries, wages, Proprietors' and other and rental income labor income Dividends and interest 14.7 34. 1 36.0 41.8 46. 0 50. 7 9. 2 10.6 11. 4 13.5 15. 6 17. 1 45.7 116. 1 116.8 111. 4 121. 9 132. 8 Social security and GI payments 3.0 3.6 6. 2 11.4 11.7 10. 9 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: October November December 1948: January February March April May__ June July August September October 1 November _ __ _ _ __ 200.0 201.4 207.7 124. 6 127.4 129. 3 47. 5 47. 1 51. 3 15.9 16. 1 16.2 12.0 10.8 10.9 209. 4 206.8 205.6 207.4 207.2 212.3 212.9 214.6 214. 9 215. 6 216. 7 129. 4 128.9 127. 6 127.0 128.8 131.7 133. 9 136.4 136.8 137. 1 137. 3 52.4 50. 0 49.3 51.9 50.7 52.8 51. 0 50. 0 50. 1 50. 5 51. 1 16.5 16.6 16. 6 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.0 17.3 17. 5 17.7 18.0 11. 1 11.3 12. 1 11.8 10.9 11.0 11.0 10. 9 10. 5 10. 3 10. 3 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING At the end of the year consumers' saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 15 billion dollars — considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 200 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 1939 SOURCE: COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] t Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1940 1941 . 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 2 1948 _>_ 70. 2 75. 7 92. 0 116.2 131. 6 145.6 149.4 159.2 173.6 190.4 . . . Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving 67.5 72. 1 82. 3 90.8 101. 6 111.4 122.8 147.4 164. 8 176. 8 2. 7 3. 7 9.8 25.4 30.0 34.2 26. 6 11.8 8.8 13. 6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 2 Fourth quarter 1 2 22 . _ _ _ __ . _ __ 169.7 168.2 175.0 180.9 158. 1 164.2 165.6 171.1 11.6 4. 1 9.4 9.7 184. 1 188. 2 193.7 195.4 172. 1 176. 5 178.5 180. 0 12. 0 11.7 15.2 15.4 Income less taxes. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter 1948). PER CAPITA INCOME The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of consumers, reflecting mainly a reversal of the upward trend in consumers' prices. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 I,6OO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1947 DOLLARS** CURRENT DOLLARS 400 1939 PERSONAL 1941 1940 INCOME LESS 1942 1943 "^ CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX SOURCES: 1944 1945 TAXES. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 2 3 1946 2 3 1947 LABOR. _._ _ _ _ Per capita disposable personal income * Current 1947 dollars * dollars $536 $859 574 913 691 1,047 863 1, 169 964 1,217 1 054 1,295 1 070 1,280 1 127 1,258 1 205 1,205 1 299 1,208 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _4 Fourth] quarter .. 2 3 1948 ON THE BASE ")947 = AND DEPARTMENT OF Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 4 _ I __ __ $1, 186 1, 170 1,212 1,246 1,263 1,286 1,318 1, 326 $1, 218 1, 193 1,201 1,203 1,201 1,202 1,206 1,222 Consumers' price index 3 1947=100 62.4 62. 9 66. 0 173.8 79. 2 81.4 83. 6 89.6 100.0 107. 5 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 97.4 98. 1 100.9 103. 6 105.2 107.0 109.3 108. 5 1 2 3 Income less taxes. Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100. The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 2. 4 Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except fourth quarter). 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS /!\n upward movement in real hourly earnings in October was due chiefly to the decline in the c;ost of living. DOLLA RS PER HOUR D O L L A R S PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 1.50 1.50 1947 DOLLARS* -.— %% ——- 1947 DOLLARS* 1.00 1.00 . ( „ — — ' CUR RENT DOLLARS GUF RENT DOLLARS .50 0 .50 i i i i i I i i i f i i i t i i 1 i i i i i 1946 i ( I i i 1 i i i i i 1947 0 i i i i i 1 i i I i i 1948 I ! I 1 ! 1 1 1 1 , , , , , 1 1 1947 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 2.00 2.00 1947 1.50 I 1946 DOLLARS* ^ ^»*^j— — f*ZZZ+Z —^ 1947 DOLLARS* / . ^^* —1 -^-~ JU-***"—-<^-— .....A-/.— «.— J 1.50 ^^//^T~i ^CUF CUF RENT DOLLARS RENT DOLLARS 1.00 1.00 .50 .50 i i , i i 1 . . , i i 0 1946 1947 0 1 , , , , , i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1946 1948 i i i i i 1i i i i i 1947 1948 * CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947 = 100. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LABOR. [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: September » October November _ December 1948: January February March April _ May._ June .July August _ September 4 October 4 November4 . December _ Current dollars >_ _ _ _ __ . __ - - 1 2 $0. 633 .729 1.019 1.023 1.084 1. 221 1. 249 1.258 1. 268 1. 278 1.285 1.287 1.289 1. 292 1. 301 1. 316 1.332 1.349 1.362 1.365 1. 371 1.378 1947 dollars 2 $1. 014 1. 105 1. 252 1. 224 1.210 1.221 1.215 1.224 1.225 1. 219 1.213 1.225 1.231 1.217 1. 216 1.222 1.222 1. 232 1. 244 1. 253 1. 269 1. 281 Retail trade Current dollars $0. 536 .568 .724 .773 .878 .991 1.012 1.013 1.025 1. 016 1.044 1.050 1. 044 1.055 1. 064 1.070 1.077 1.080 1. 086 1.080 1.084 1947 dollars 2 $0 859 861 889 925 980 991 984 985 990 969 986 999 997 993 994 994 988 986 992 992 1 004 Bituminous coal mining Current dollars 24 $1. 420 1.505 1. 457 1. 483 1.564 1.644 1.769 1.749 1.788 1.742 1.744 1.737 1.759 3 1.715 1. 721 1.718 1.776 1.796 1. 799 1. 799 1. 806 $0. 886 .993 1. 186 1. 240 1.401 1. 644 1.819 1.798 1. 851 1.826 1.847 1.826 1. 842 3 1. 821 1. 841 1. 850 1.936 1.967 1.970 1. 959 1. 951 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947= 100. See note 3 to table on page 23. Source: Department of Labor. 1947 dollars 2 3 1 Private building construction l Current dollars $0. 932 1.010 1. 319 1.379 1.478 1.676 1.723 1.743 1.765 1.774 1.781 1. 806 1. 805 1.818 1. 835 1.858 1. 890 1. 901 1.919 1. 919 1.937 1947 dollars 2 $1. 494 1. 530 1. 620 1. 650 1.650 1. 676 1. 676 1. 696 1.705 1. 693 1. 682 1.718 1. 724 1.712 1. 715 1. 725 1. 734 1.736 1. 753 1. 762 1. 794 Based on pay period during coal stoppage. 4 Prp.lnninfl.rv Preliminary pstima.t.p estimate. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS Declines in average weekly earnings in several nonmanufacturing industries in October were primarily due to the somewhat shorter average hours of work. Preliminary data for November show average weekly earnings in manufacturing unchanged. DOLt_ A R S PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 60 60 -^ _ 40 CURRENT DOLLARSV _X_^trOp— -s — —— ~ CURRENT DOLLARS \ 40 1947 DOLLARS* * _^ 7 ^^ X X 1947 DOLLARS 20 ^ 20 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1946 l i i i i 11i l l 1 1 1 1947 0 ( l t i i 1l i i i i 1946 1948 i i i i i 1i i i i i 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I I 1947 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 1 00 100 80 -" s* 60 v-^c -*^i'^^>¥' i __/ — «* * CUR RENT DOLLARS 80 CURRENT DOLLARS 7 \ **" * -**«—*/ __^ •^^^ / 60 1947 DOLLARS * * 1947 DOLLARS* * 40 40 20 20 i I i I i 1 i 1l 1 l 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1946 1947 0 1 1 M 1 1 1i i j 1 1946 1948 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 1948 -> SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average.. 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average.. 1946 monthly average.. 1947 monthly average.. 1947: September October November December. » 1948: January February . March April May June July August September October 4 __4 _ November 4 December 1 3 Current dollars $23. 86 29. 58 46.08 44.39 43.74 49. 25 50.47 51.05 51.29 52. 69 52.07 51.75 52.07 51. 79 51.86 52. 85 52.95 54. 05 54. 19 54. 54 54. 47 55. 01 1947 dollars * $38. 24 44. 82 56. 61 53. 10 48. 82 49.25 49. 10 49.66 49. 56 50.28 49. 17 49. 24 49. 73 48. 77 48.47 49. 07 48. 58 49. 36 49. 49 50.08 50.43 51. 12 Retail trade Current dollars $21. 17 21.94 26.58 28. 31 32.55 36. 67 37.06 36.74 37. 14 37.51 37. 62 38.33 38.89 39. 27 39. 84 40. 52 41. 19 41. 19 40. 48 40. 32 39. 67 1947 dollars * $33. 93 33.24 32. 65 33. 86 36. 33 36. 67 36.05 35.74 35. 88 35. 79 35. 52 36. 47 37. 14 36. 98 37. 23 37. 62 37. 79 37. 62 36. 97 37. 02 36. 73 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947 = 100. See note 3 to table on page 23. Source: Department of Labor. Bituminous coal mining Current dollars $23. 88 30. 86 51.27 52.25 58.03 66.86 71. 19 71.91 71.77 75.22 75.78 70.54 74.84 3 49. 53 74. 08 73. 87 67. 62 78. 10 75. 51 76. 40 73. 52 1 4 1947 dollars * $38. 27 46. 76 62. 99 62. 50 64. 77 66.86 69.25 69.95 69. 34 71.77 71. 56 67. 12 71. 48 3 46. 64 69. 23 68. 59 62. 04 71. 32 68. 96 70. 16 68.07 Private building construction * Current dollars $30. 39 35. 14 52. 18 53.73 56.24 63. 30 65.36 66.36 64.55 67.31 66. 28 66.31 66.89 67. 31 68. 13 70.49 71.38 71.89 72. 06 71. 69 71. 02 1947 dollars • $48. 70 53. 24 64. 10 64. 27 62. 77 63 30 63. 58 64. 55 62. 37 64. 23 62. 59 63.09 63. 89 63. 38 63. 67 65. 45 65. 49 65. 65 65. 81 65. 83 65. 76 Based on pay period during coal stoppage. Preliminary estimate. 25 FARM INCOME Cash farm income in November, down seasonally from October, was about equal to that in November 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 1939 * ** 40 CASH RECEIPTS 41 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 42 43 M A M J 44 FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT J A S 1 J 1947 A S 0 N D PAYMENTS. FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939* too. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average *-_ 1941 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average - . ] 946 monthly average 1947 monthly average _„ 1947: October .November. December . * 1948* January February March » _-. April May .. « . « June July August— September October 4 November » - _ _ . ~ «. .. _« . _ _ . . __ Farm income (millions of current dollars) * Prices paid by farmers (incl. interest and taxes) 1939= 100 a 723 761 981 1, 340 1 678 1, 753 1, 857 2 136 2, 542 3 818 3, 276 2 843 2 571 1, 862 1 932 2, 075 2 119 2, 437 2, 693 2, 722 3, 132 3, 714 3.314 100. 0 100 8 106 5 121. 0 130 6 136. 3 138. 7 155 6 186. 3 192. 7 194. 4 197. 6 202. 4 200. 0 199. 2 200. 8 201. 6 202,4 202. 4 202. 4 201. 6 200. 8 199.2 Farm income (millions of 1939 dollars) 3 1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. *1 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939* 100. 4 Preliminary. Source: Department of^ Agriculture. 26 J 1948 723 755 921 1, 107 1 285 1,286 1, 339 1 373 1, 364 1 981 1, 685 1 439 1 270 931 970 1,033 1, 051 1,204 1, 331 1,345 1, 554 1, 850 1.664 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947. for services, however, increased more than in the preceding year. Expenditures BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1939 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except fourth quarter of 1948). [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 1945 . 1946 1947 1948 i 67. 5 111.4 122.8 147.4 164. 8 176. 8 35.3 67.5 75.4 87. 5 96.5 102. 7 Durable goods 6. 7 6.9 8.3 16.2 21.0 22. 7 Services 25.5 37.0 39.2 43.6 47.3 51.3 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter . Fourth quarter 1 _ „. _ _ __ __ 158. 1 164.2 165. 6 171. 1 92.5 96.3 96.8 100.2 19. 6 21. 1 21. 1 22. 1 46.0 46.7 47.7 48.8 172. 1 176. 5 178.5 180. 0 101. 2 103.2 102.9 103. 5 21.2 22. 6 23.6 23. 5 49.7 50.6 51.9 53.0 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter). 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit showed an expected seasonal increase in November, but the rise was much less than that of a year ago. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 16 14 - 14 12 12 10 - 1 1929 1939 1941 M A M J 1943 END OF YEAR A M J J A 1946 J A 1947 END OF MONTH * SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT [Billions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1929 1939 1941 1943 1945 1946 . _ 1947 1947: October November December 1948: January February March April _ __ _ May June July August September October _ November 3 , 1 _ _ _ _ 7. 6 8. 0 9. 9 5. 3 6. 6 10. 1 13. 4 12. 1 12. 7 13 4 13. 1 13. 1 13. 5 13. 8 14. 0 14. 3 14. 4 14. 5 14. 8 15.0 15.3 Instalment credit 1 3. 2 4. 4 5. 9 L9 2. 3 3.9 6. 2 5. 5 5. 8 6. 2 6. 2 6. 3 6. 6 6. 8 7. 0 7. 2 7. 4 7. 6 7. 8 7. 8 7.9 Charge accounts 1. 7 1. 5 1. 8 1. 5 2. 0 3. 1 3. 6 3. 0 3. 3 3. 6 3.2 3. 1 3. 3 3. 2 3. 2 3. 4 3. 2 3. 1 3.2 3. 5 3. 6 Other consumer credit 2 2. 7 2. 0 2. 2 1. 9 2. 3 3. 1 3. 6 3. 6 3. 6 3. 6 3. 7 3. 7 3. 7 3.7 3. 7 3. 8 3. 8 3. 8 3. 8 3. 8 3.8 Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration. 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS After a slight decline in October, bank loans moved up sharply in November. BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 125 TOTAL (All commercial hanks) 100 100 ::•:•: INVESTMENT IN :j:j:|:::|::i::: U. S .GOVERNMENT SECURITIES;:^':' .jjjj 75 50 75 ~^^~ 50 25 25 1929 1939 1945 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N * D J F M A M J J A S O N O 1948 END OF YEAR END OF MONTH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE [Billions of dollars] Investments Total investments Total U. S. Government securities Other securities 8.7 49. 5 40. 7 124. 0 114. 0 116. 4 36. 0 17.2 26. 1 31. 1 38. 1 13. 5 23.4 97. 9 82.9 78.3 4. 8 • 16.3 90. 6 74.8 69. 3 116. 3 116. 6 116. 3 36. 8 37.6 38. 1 79.5 79. 0 78.2 70.5 70. 1 69.2 9.0 8.9 9.0 38.2 1948: January _ _ _ _ _ 116. 6 38. 7 February.. 115. 5 38. 9 March 113. 6 38. 8 114. 3 ApriL 39.4 114 5 May „ 39.9 113. 9 June 40. 1 114. 8 July 40. 6 August 115. 1 41.7 113. 6 September 41. 6 October 1 114. 1 114.2 42. 3 November _._ 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 78.4 76.9 74.7 75.5 75. 1 74.0 74.6 74.5 71.9 72. 5 71.9 69.4 67.9 65.5 66.3 65.9 64.8 65.3 65. 1 62. 5 63.3 62.8 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 ]929 19391945 1946_ 1947 1947: October. November December - __ _ . __ 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9.0 9. 1 29 MONEY SUPPLY A rise in currency holdings slightly increased the total money supply in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 100 75 25 25 1929 1939 1941 1943 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N * D 1946 END OF YEAR 1948 1947 1946 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE END OF MONTH [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1929_. 1939 1941 1943 . 1945 . 1946.. 1947 1947: October - _ November „ _ _ _ December 1948: January February March™. _. _ _ April. _ _ May June July August September ... October 3 _ _ _ November ... _ ._ . _ _ _„ „ _ _ _ _ 26. 5 37. 0 50. 5 90. 1 126. 9 113. 1 115. 1 113. 4 114. 3 115. 1 113. 7 112. 1 109. 5 110. 6 110. 6 110. 5 111. 3 111. 8 112.4 113. 1 113. 2 Currency outside banks 3.6 6. 4 9. 6 18. 8 26. 5 26. 7 26. 5 26. 2 26. 5 26. 5 25. 8 25, 7 25. 6 25.4 25.4 25. 6 25. 5 25. 6 25.7 25. 7 25. 9 Adjusted demand deposits * 22. 8 29 8 39. 0 60. 8 75. 9 83.3 87. 1 85.4 85. 9 87. 1 86.6 84.6 81.5 82.7 82.8 82. 7 83. 4 83.8 83. 9 85.0 85.0 U.S. Government deposits 3 0. 2 8 19 10. 4 24. 6 3. 1 1. 5 1.8 1. 9 1.5 1. 3 1. 8 2.4 2.5 2.4 2. 2 2 4 2. 4 2 8 2. 3 2. 2 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. a Beginning December 1938, includes TJ. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC Cash payments during the fourth quarter exceeded receipts by about $500 million. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 20 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 15 15 I 2 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE. SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW. 2 3 3 2 3 4* 1948 1947 1946 SOURCE: TREASURY. DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Calendar year by quarters 1946: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 l Fourth quarter - . .. _. .. - - - _ _ _ Federal cash receipts from the public Federal cash payments to the public 14, 153 11, 089 10, 375 9,868 13, 648 13, 590 9, 104 8,907 -f-505 — 2, 501 + 1,271 + 961 14, 962 11, 429 10, 494 10, 022 9,772 12, 197 10, 527 8,677 + 5, 190 — 768 33 + 1,345 15, 758 11,408 10, 344 9,700 9,346 10, 176 9,045 10, 250 + 6,412 + 1, 232 + 1,299 — 550 Excess of receipts (+) or payments ( — ) 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Payments to the public include refunds of receipts. These refunds will be reported as a deduction from receipts (consistent with the January 1949 Economic Report and the 1950 Budget) as soon as the historical data can be converted to a comparable basis. Source: Treasury Department. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ. S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price 15 cents 31