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105th Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
FEBRUARY
1997
(Includes data available as of March 5, 1997)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
LIBRARY
MAR. 2 4 1997
RESERVE
CHICAGO
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1997
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Chairman
CONNIE MACK, Florida, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)
MARK SANFORD (South Carolina)
MAC THORNBERRY (Texas)
JOHN T. DOOLITTLE (California)
JIM McCRERY (Louisiana)
FORTNEY PETE STARK (California)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
MAURICE D. HINCHEY (New York)
CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York)
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)
ROD GRAMS (Minnesota)
SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas)
JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)
CHRISTOPHER FRENZE, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
JANET L. YELLEN, Chair
ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member
JEFFREY A. FRANKEL, Member-Nominee
{PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
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at Anns of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies
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libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
, v.
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Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy
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ISBN 0-16-054218-9
11
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME AND SPENDING
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
In the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose
5.3 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 3.9 percent, and the Implicit price deflator
rose 1.4 percent.
BILUONS Of DOUARS (RATIO SCALE)
BltUONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCALE)
8,000
8,000
5EA5ONAU.Y ADJUSTH) AWUAL RATES
7,400
X
7,200
^~-
7,200
^^
x^
6,800
.-<
GDP
IAINED(1992)DOULARS
\
6/400
IN a
6,000
s- ~
5,600
,5,200
--...
6,800
.,-' "
6,400
fS^~
6,000
'-'
x^
,— — "
x— ^
5,600
5,200
x-
s
4,800
7,600
^
_-_
>• ^ \
X
4,400
x
4,000
3,600
4,800
x^ GDP
'
IN CURRENT DOUARS
/
4,400
s~~ ^
4,000
/S
3,600
3,200
3,200
1 1 t
1982
i i t
1983
f 1 1
1985
1984
\ \ 1
1986
i i i
1987
l I I
1988
1 1 1
1989
1 1 1
1990
l i i
1991
L t L
1992
1993
i i i
1994
SOURCE DEFftHTMENT Of CQMMBKE
t i i
1995
l i l
1996
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACMSBtS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV
1992: IV
1993: I
JJ
TTT
IV
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995: I
1996-
n
m
rv
I
n
in
IV '
1
Exports and imports
Personal Gross
of goods and services
Gross
conprivate
domestic sumption domestic
Net
product expendi- investexports Exports Imports
ment
tures'
5,049.6
5,438.7
5,743.8
5,916.7
6,244.4
6,553.0
6,935.7
7,253.8
7,575.9
6,002.3
6,383.0
6,442.6
6,506.2
6,574.4
6,688.6
6,776.0
6,890.5
6,993.1
7,083.2
7,149.8
7,204.9
7,309.8
7,350.6
7,426.8
7,545.1
7,616.3
7.715.4
3,349.7
3,594.8
3,839.3
3,975.1
4,219.8
4,454.1
4,700.9
4,924.9
5,152.0
4,027.1
4,329.6
4,367.6
4,424.8
4,481.0
4,543.1
4,600.9
4,666.2
4,738.3
4,798.2
4,840.6
4,910.5
4,957.9
4,990.5
5,060.5
5,139.4
5,165.4
5,242.7
773.9
829.2
799.7
736.2
790.4
871.1
1,014.4
1,065.3
1,116.4
760.9
816.1
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2
957.6
1,016.5
1,033.6
1,050.1
1,072.0
1,050.3
1,074.8
1,064.0
1,068.9
1,096.0
1,156.2
1,144.3
-106.1
-80.4
-71.3
-20.5
-29.5
-62.7
-94.4
-94.7
-99.1
-14.8
-42.7
-47.9
-59.6
— 745
-68.8
-78.8
-93.0
-107.0
-98.7
-108.7
-115.3
-87.6
-67.2
-86.3
-99.2
-120.2
-90.8
GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
447.2
509.3
557.3
601.8
639.4
657.8
719.1
807.4
855.1
624.4
649.1
646.9
660.4
645.3
678.7
678.9
707.4
729.2
761.0
776.1
797.3
819.0
837.0
839.5
850.0
844.3
886.7
553.2
589.7
628.6
622.3
669.0
720.5
813.5
902.0
954.3
639.3
691.8
694.8
720.0
719.8
747.5
757.6
800.4
836.1
859.6
884.8
912.6
906.6
904.2
925.8
949.2
964.5
977.5
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Total
Total
1,032.0
1,095.1
1,176.1
1,225.9
1,263.8
1,290.4
1,314.7
1,358.3
1,406.6
1,229.2
1,280.0
1,279.3
1,285.1
1,294.1
1,303.2
1,296.4
1,300.8
1,328.2
1,333.5
1,345.8
1,359.4
1,364.6
1,363.4
1,383.7
1,408.8
1,414.8
1,419.3
457.3
477.2
503.6
522.6
528.0
522.6
516.4
516.6
523.0
515.5
535.0
525.5
520.1
521.3
523.5
511.3
509.4
523.8
520.9
519.7
522.0
516.8
507.7
518.6
529.6
525.5
518.2
National Nondefense defense
354.0
360.6
373.1
383.5
375.8
362.7
352.0
345.5
347.0
373.0
375.3
365.7
362.7
361.2
361.3
346.7
349.3
362.3
349.7
347.6
351.7
345.7
337.1
343.9
353.7
348.8
341.4
103.3
116.7
130.4
139.1
152.2
159.9
164.3
171.0
176.0
142.6
159.7
159.8
157.4
160.1
162.2
164.6
160.0
161.5
171.2
172.1
170.3
171.1
170.6
174.7
175.8
176.7
176.8
State
and
local
574.7
617.9
672.6
703.4
735.8
767.8
798.4
841.7
883.7
713.6
745.1
753.8
765.0
772.7
779.7
785.0
791.4
804.4
812.6
826.1
837.3
847.7
855.7
865.1
879.2
889.3
901.0
AddenFinal
Gross
dum:
sales of domestic Gross
purdomestic
product chases' national
product
5,038.7
5,407.0
5,735.8
5,919.0
6,237.4
6,532.4
6,876.2
7,216.7
7,560.9
5,980.9
6,376.6
6,422.8
6,484.6
6,552.3
6,669.8
6,735.9
6,816.0
6,928.5
7,024.6
7,091.7
7,170.9
7,271.5
7,332.8
7,428.6
7,537.1
7,579.6
7.698.2
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
5,155.6
5,519.1
5,815.1
5,937.2
6,274.0
6,615.7
7,030.1
7,348.4
7,675.0
6,017.1
6,425.7
6,490.5
6,565.8
6,648.8
6,757.4
6,854.8
6,983.5
7,100.1
7,181.9
7,258.4
7,320.2
7,397.3
7,417.8
7,513.2
7,644.3
7,736.5
7.806.3
5,062.6
5,452.8
5,764.9
5,932.4
6,255.5
6,563.5
6,931.9
7,246.7
6,016.6
6,390.5
6,458.6
6,516.5
6,587.1
6,691.9
6,781.0
6,888.3
6,987.0
7,071.4
7,146.8
7,202.47,293.4
7,344.3
7,426.6
7,537.5
7,598.9
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV
1992- IV
1993- I
II
m
IV
1994: I
n
ra
1995. i
n
IV
TTT
IV
1996:
I
n
m
TV'
Personal
dross
condomestic sumption
product expenditures
5,862.9
6,060.4
6,138.7
6,079.0
6,244.4
6,386.4
6,608.7
6,742.9
6,907.4
6,104.4
6,327.3
6,326.4
6,356.5
6,393.4
6,469.1
6,508.5
6,587.6
6,644.9
6,693.9
6,701.0
6,713.5
6,776.4
6,780.7
6,814.3
6,892.6
6,928.4
6.994.4
J
3,972.7
4,064.6
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,339.5
4,473.2
4,577.8
4,690.9
4,109.1
4,282.3
4,289.7
4,318.8
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
4,534.8
4,569.9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,687.6
4,693.5
4.733.3
GDP Jess exports of goods and
Not*.—Beeaase of the fwrmuia used
mates for tfae (fetaited eetBpoaeata t&
Nonresidential
filed
fixed
invest^
ment
investment
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
766.8
539.5
569.1
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
628.5
639.5
6605
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.5
781.4
791.8
Federal
Change
in business
inven-
Residential
Qovemment consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Gross private
domestic investment
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
tories
11.6
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.3
19.1
58.9
33.1
13.7
21.4
5.8
18.5
20.8
19.5
17.4
40.5
74.5
64.5
56.1
54.5
30.5
33.0
14.6
-3.0
7.1
34.5
16.4
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
277.0
202.4
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
370.3
270.3
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.5
277.8
277.6
-114.4
-82.7
-61.9
223
295
-72.0
1057
1076
1140
-17.9
-40.0
-56.0
-64.4
-86.2
-81.5
-99.3
-107.3
-111.7
- 104.3
-122.5
-121.4
-101.6
-84.9
-104.0
-114.7
-137.4
-100.0
465.8
520.2
564.4
599.9
639.4
658.2
712.0
775.4
825.8
623.5
649.1
647.1
660.0
645.5
680.3
677.6
703.1
719.6
747.6
752.3
763.2
783.0
803.1
806.7
817.9
816.1
862.5
phis imports of goods and services.
eafei&&*g *ea* GBP, the chained (1992) dollar estiocM to the diained-dollar value of GDP or to any
580.2
603.0
626.3
622.2
669.0
730.2
817.6
883.0
939.8
641.4
689.1
703.1
724.4
731.7
761.8
777.0
810.4
831.3
851.9
874.9
884.6
884.5
888.0
910.7
932.6
953.5
962.5
1,180.9
1,213.9
1,250.4
1,258.0
1,263.8
1,261.0
1,260.0
1,260.2
1,270.9
1,250.7
1,272.5
1,257.7
1,258.4
1,261.6
1,266.2
1,252.4
1,249.8
1,271.2
1,266.6
1,262.7
1,265.1
1,263.4
1,249.6
1,254.7
1,278.2
1,276.1
1.274.8
National
defense
524.6
531.5
541.9
539.4
528.0
509.2
489.8
472.3
467.3
526.9
534.0
516.1
509.7
505.9
505.0
489.9
483.3
496.7
489.2
481.0
479.4
472.5
456.2
462.9
473.4
469.3
463.4
405.5
401.6
401.5
397.5
375.8
355.4
337.0
319.6
313.9
381.7
376.8
361.6
356.9
351.6
351.2
334.8
335.5
346.2
331.3
325.0
325.5
319.1
308.8
311.9
319.4
314.9
309.2
and
Nondefense
Final
sales of
domestic
product
Gross
domestic
5,855.1
6,028.7
6,126.7
6,082.6
6,237.4
6,365.5
6,550.7
6,708.9
6,892.5
6,083.8
6,320.7
6,307.1
6,334.5
6,371.3
6,449.2
6,467.7
6,514.9
6,582.1
6,638.1
6,647.4
6,682.4
6,741.4
6,764.2
6,815.2
6,884.7
6,892.7
6.977.4
5,983.9
6,146.1
6,202.1
6,101.1
6,274.0
6,457.6
6,711.8
6,847.1
7,017.2
6,122.3
6,367.3
6,382.1
6,420.4
6,478.6
6,549.3
6,605.9
6,692.3
6,753.7
6,795.3
6,819.8
6,830.9
6,874.8
6,862.9
6,914.6
7,003.0
7,060.7
7.090.3
pur-
1
chases
local
119.1
130.1
140.5
142.0
152.2
153.8
152.6
152.3
153.0
145.3
157.1
154.4
152.7
154.2
153.7
154.9
147.8
150.4
157.5
155.6
153.5
153.1
147.0
150.6
153.7
153.9
153.7
656.6
682.6
708.6
718.7
735.8
751.8
770.5
788.6
804.5
723.8
738.5
741.6
748.8
755.7
761.3
762.7
766.8
774.7
777.7
782.2
786.3
791.5
794.4
792.6
805.5
807.7
812.4
Adden-
dum:
Gross
national
product
5,876.2
6,074.0
6,159.4
6,094.4
6,255.5
6,397.1
6,606.0
6,737.1
6,118.7
6,334.8
6,342.5
6,366.9
6,406.3
6,472.5
6,514.0
6,586.2
6,640.0
6,683.5
6,699.1
6,711.9
6,762.0
6,775.6
6,814.9
6,886.5
6,913.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic .Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
[Index numbers, 1992-100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Period
Gross
domestic
product
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991: IV
1992: IV
1993- I
n
ra
W
1994- I
n
in
IV
1995: I
u
ra
IV
1996:
I
n
ra
IV ••
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
104.9
107.6
109.7
98.3
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.5
109.9
110.3
Personal coasnmption
expenditures
Total
84.3
88.4
92.9
96.8
100.0
102.6
105.1
107.6
109.8
98.0
101.1
101.8
102.5
102.8
103.5
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.1
106.7
107.5
107.8
108.3
108.9
109.6
110.1
110.8
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Services
93.3
95.3
96.6
98.5
100.0
101.3
103.4
104.6
103.4
99.1
100.2
100.5
1O1.1
101.5
101.9
102.4
103.2
103.9
103.9
104.7
104.8
104.5
104.3
104.3
103.6
103.1
102.6
84.8
89.3
94.6
98.1
100.0
101.5
102.8
104.5
107.1
98.7
100.7
101.3
101.5
101.3
101.9
102.0
102.4
103.3
103.6
103.9
104.5
104.7
105.0
106.0
107.2
107.2
108.2
82.2
86.6
91.2
95.8
100.0
103.6
106.7
109.9
112.7
97.4
101.5
102.4
103.3
103.9
104.7
105.6
106.2
107.1
107.9
108.8
109.7
110.3
110.9
111.4
112.3
113.2
114.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis-
Gross private
domestic investment
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential fixed
93.7
96.2
98.4
99.9
100.0
100.9
102.3
103.4
103.1
99.9
100.1
100.5
100.8
101.0
101.1
101.6
102.2
102.7
102.7
102.7
103.4
103.8
103.6
103.4
103.1
103.3
102.8
92.1
95.1
97.8
98.8
100.0
103.7
107.0
110.3
112.1
98.9
101.4
102.3
103.6
104.3
104.7
105.7
106.2
107.4
108.6
109.2
109.9
110.7
111.3
111.3
111.6
112.5
112.9
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
Federal
Exports
96.0
97.9
98.7
100.3
100.0
99.9
101.0
104.1
103.6
100.2
100.0
ieo.0
100.1
100.0
99.8
100.2
100.6
101.3
101.8
103.2
104.5
104.6
104.2
104.1
103.9
103.5
102.8
Imports
Total
95.3
97.8
100.4
100.0
100.0
98.7
99.5
102.2
101.5
99.7
100.4
98.8
99.4
98.4
98.1
97.5
98.8
100.6
100.9
101.1
103.2
102.5
101.8
101.7
101.8
101.2
101.6
87.2
89.8
92.9
96.9
100.0
102.6
105.4
109.4
111.9
97.8
100.2
101.8
102.0
103.0
103.6
104.4
105.4
105.5
106.5
108.0
108.9
109.4
111.3
112.0
111.9
112.0
111.8
National
defense
Nondefense
87.3
89.8
92.9
96.5
100.0
102.1
104.5
108.1
110.5
97.7
99.6
101.1
101.6
102.7
102.9
103.6
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.9
108.1
-108.3
109.2
110.3
110.8
110.8
110.4
86.7
89.7
92.8
97.9
100.0
104.0
107.7
112.3
115.1
98.1
101.6
103.5
103.1
103.9
105.5
106.3
108.3
107.4
108.7
110.6
110.9
111.8
116.0
116.0
114.4
114.8
115.1
State
and
local
87.5
90.5
94.9
97.9
100.0
102.1
103.6
106.7
109.8
98.6
100.9
101.6
102.2
102.3
102.4
102.9
103.2
103.8
104.5
105.6
106.5
107.1
107.7
109.1
109.2
110.1
110.9
QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND
PERCENT CHANGES
[Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Percent change from preceding periodl
Index numbers, 1932=100
Period
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1992: IH ....
IV
1993: I
II
IH ....
IV
1994: I
II
in ....
IV
1995: I
II
in ....
IV
1996: I
II
in ....
IV' ...
Chain-type
quantity
index
Current
dollars
Chain-type
price index
74.0
77.0
82.3
85.3
87.9
90.5
93.9
97.1
98.3
97.3
100.0
,102.3
105.8
108.0
110.6
100.3
101.3
101.3
101.8
102.4
103.6
104.2
105,5
106.4
107.2
107.3
107.5
108.5
108.6
109.1
110.4
111.0
112.0
51.9
56.3
62.5
67.0
70.8
75.1
80.9
87.1
92.0
94.8
100.0
104.9
111.1
116.2
121.3
100.4
102.2
103.2
104.2
105.3
107.1
108.5
110.3
112.0
113.4
114.5
115.4
117.1
117.7
118.9
120.8
122.0
123.6
70.2
73.2
75.9
78.6
80.6
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
105.0
107.6
109.9
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.6
110.2
110.7
1
Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Quarterly percent changes are at annual
rates.
Implicit
price
deflator
Chain-type
quantity
index
Current
dollars
70.1
73.1
75.9
78.4
80.6
83.1
86.1
89.7
93.6
97.3
100.0
102.6
104.9
107.6
109.7
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4
102.8
103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.4
109.0
109.5
109.9
110.3
4.1
8.4
11.0
7.1
5.8
6.1
7.6
7.7
5.6
3.0
5.5
4.9
5.8
4.6
4.4
4.6
7.3
3.8
4.0
4.3
7.1
5.3
6.9
6.1
5.3
3.8
3.1
6.0
2.3
4.2
6.5
3.8
5.3
Chain-type
price
index
-2.1
4.0
6.8
3.7
3.0
2.9
3.8
3.4
1.3
-1.0
2.7
2.3
3.5
2.0
2.4
3.0
4.3
-.1
1.9
2.3
4.8
2.5
4.9
3.5
3.0
.4
.7
3.8
.3
2.0
4.7
2.1
3.9
Implicit
price
deflator
6.3
4.2
3.8
3.4
2.6
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.4
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.1
1.5
2.8
3.8
2.2
1.8
2.3
2.9
1.9
2.4
2.1
3.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
6.3
4.2
3.9
3.3
2.7
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.9
3.8
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.8
1.9
2.5
2.2
3.4
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.4
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars) *
Gross domestic product
of nonfinaneial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1993: I
II
HI ...
IV....
1994: I
n
ra ...
IV....
1995: I
n
ra ...
rv....
1996: I
II
m ...
Current
dollar*!
Chained
(1992)
dollars
2,589.6
2,805.2
2,950.9
3,084.0
3,132.1
3,262.6
3,437.5
3,689.4
3,885.8
3,344.2
3,407.3
3,459.7
3,538.7
3,601.7
3,663.0
3,709.5
3,783.2
3,803.3
3,841.9
3,924.8
3,973.2
4,011.6
4,081.6
4,143.1
2,967.0
3,122.1
3,175.4
3,212.5
3,168.8
3,262.6
3,380.0
3,567.7
3,692.3
3,302.9
3,356.7
3,399.2
3,461.1
3,503.9
3,553.0
3,577.7
3,636.3
3,634.1
3,656.1
3,719.9
3,759.1
3,779.2
3,831.0
3,888.8
Total
cost and
profit2
Consumption of
fixed
capital
Indirect
business
tax.ete.3
Compensation
of em-
0.873
.898
0.100
.101
.106
.110
.116
.115
,115
.116
.115
.116
.115
.116
.114
.122
.114
.114
.113
.114
.115
.115
.115
.115
.115
.115
0.083
.084
.088
.092
.100
.103
.105
.106
.109
.105
.105
.105
.107
.106
.106
.107
.106
.108
.110
.108
.108
.107
.105
.105
0.578
.591
.614
.640
.660
.673
.679
.682
.697
.682
.679
.679
.675
.680
.681
.684
.686
.696
.698
.696
.699
.702
.706
.706
.929
.960
.988
1.000
1.017
1.034
1.052
1.012
1.015
1.018
1.022
1.028
1.031
1.037
1.040
1.047
1.051
1.055
1.057
1.062
1.065
1.065
1
3
2
4
Output is measured by ODP of nonfinaneial corporate business in chained (1992) dollars.
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate business
with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
Profits
tax
liability
0.076
.082
.075
.072
.070
.077
.088
.102
.104
.079
.085
.089
.098
.092
.103
.105
.108
.100
.100
.109
.108
.111
.113
.114
0.031
.033
.031
.030
.027
.028
.031
.036
.038
.028
.031
.029
.034
.035
.036
.037
.039
.039
.038
.038
.037
.039
.039
.038
Profits
after
tax*
0.044
.050
.044
.042
.043
.049
.057
.066
.066
.050
.055
.059
.065
.058
.067
.068
.070
.061
.062
.071
.070
.072
.074
.076
Net
interest
0.035
.039
.046
.046
.042
.032
.029
.027
.027
.031
.030
.029
.028
.027
.027
.028
.027
.028
.028
.027
.027
.026
.027
.027
Indirect business tax and nontax liability phis business transfer payments less subsidies.
With,inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
National
income
Period
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV
1992- IV
1993- III
IV
1994. I ,
Compensation
of
employees1
4,611.9
4,719.7
4,950.8
5,195.3
5,501.6
5,813.5
4,770.0
5,061.7
5,214.1
5,311.3
5,304.8
5,493.2
5,561.7
5,646.9
5(709.9
5,755.4
5,861.4
5,927.4
6,015.3
6,118.7
6,203.0
n
m
rv
1995. i
n
in
IV
1996- I
ii
in
IV'
1
Proprietors' income
with inventoiy vara-ation and capital consumption adjustments
Farm
Nonfarm
36.3
30.2
38.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
46.4
31.0
37.3
26.1
34.4
40.8
35.1
31.9
32.3
28.5
27.6
28.1
31.8
38.4
45.8
51.8
49.6
3,352.8
3,457.9
3,644.9
3,809.5
4,009.8
4,222.7
4,448.8
3,511.0
3,707.0
3,834.9
3,8?1.1
3,932.6
3,988.0
4,027.5
4,091.0
4,150.5
4,191.6
4,247.7
4,301.1
4,344.3
4,420.9
4,482.9
4.547.0
324.6
332.7
371.5
388.1
415.9
449.3
471.9
341.1
385.1
388.1
400.5
380.3
419.3
426.8
437.1
443.5
447.1
451.5
454.9
461.1
469.4
474.6
482.4
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and
capita! consumption adjustments
Rental
income
of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
61.4
68.4
80.6
102:5
116.6
122.2
126.8
73.0
92.3
104.1
104.5
101.1
121.0
122.2
121.9
120.6
121.6;
120.9
125.8
126.9
124.5
127.0
128.6
Profits
before tax
369.5
382.5
401.4
464.4
529.5
586.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
457.7
517.9
570.8
371.7
374.2
406.4
464.3
531.2
598.9
379.6
427.7
469.6
512.8
459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9
5GO.O
562.3
612.5
611.8
645.1
655.8
661.2
375.2
420.5
465.9
500.5
471.6
516.2
534.3
549.6
542.6
547.3
597.9
595.3
624.8
633.5
637.6
382.8
420.3
458.0
' 504.5
475.5
526.0
550.8
572.4
594.5
589.6
607.2
604.2
642.2
644.6
635.6
Inventoiy
valuation
adjustment
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-6.6
-13.3
-28.1
-8.6
-7.6
•'-" .2
7.9
-4.0
-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8
-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8
-17.4
-11.0
2.0
-8.1
Capital
consumption
adjustment
11.3
4.3
2.5
6.7
11.6
15.9
23.1
4.5
7.2
3.8
12.3
-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3
17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5
20.4
22.3
23.6
26.4
Net
interest
467.3
448.0
414.3
398.9
394.9
403.6
434.3
412.4
391.4
388.0
390.2
395.5
400.1
393.8
406.9
405.2
400.7
401.9
399.5
402.3
405.6
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Includes employer contributions for social insurance;-(See also p. 5.)
REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Total
persona!
consumption
expenditures
Period
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991- IV
1992- IV
1993- in
IV
1994. I
II
in
rv
_
....
1995. I
II
in
IV
1996- I
II
m
IV'
4,132.2
4,105.8
4,219.8
4,339.5
4,473.2
4,577.8
4,690.9
4,109.1
4,282.3
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0
4,534.8
4,569.9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,687.6
4,693.5
4,733.3
Total
durable
goods
493.3
462.0
488.5
524.1
562.0
579.8
611.1
461.5
505.0
528.9
541.9
549.6
555.4
563.1
579.8
566.5
576.2
589.1
587.5
599.2
615.6
611.6
617.8
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
224.3
193.2
206.9
218.6
228.2
221.1
222.2
194.6
213.9
219.1
225.3
230.3
226.6
226.5
229.4
216.3
220.9
226.4
220.6
224.2
225.9
220.0
218.7
Furniture
and
household
equipment
173.5
177.0
189.4
208.4
230.1
251.1
275.7
178.0
196.4
211.0
216.8
219.0
226.1
232.6
242.6
243.1
247.1
254.1
259.9
264.1
276.0
279.0
283.7
Other
Total
nondurable
goods
Food
96.6
91.8
92.3
97.2
104.2
109.8
117.1
88.9
94.6
98.9
99.9
100.3
103.0
104.7
108.8
108.9
109.9
110.5
109.9
113.9
117.4
116.9
120.2
1,316.1
1,302.9
1,321.8
1,348.8
1,390.5
1,421.9
1,441.7
1,295.7
1,339.8
1,354.0
1,359.9
1,372.9
1,383.9
1,397.0
1,408.1
1,416.6
1,422.9
1,424.7
1,423.2
1,436.1
1,440.9
1,442.2
1,447.4
662.9
659.6
660.0
674.3
689.1
702.1
704.7
656.5
668.6
675.7
677.9
682.3
688.6
690.5
694.9
700.5
761.3
703.6
703.0
709.2
704.9
701.6
703.3
1
Includes other items, not shown separately.
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1993) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Clothing
Gasoline
and
and oil
shoes
217.9
215.9
225.5
233.3
247.2
257.2
268.1
213.1
230.9
235.0
238.6
241.1
243.3
249.0
255.5
254.6
257.9
258.8
257.3
262.5
268.9
271.0
269.9
107.3
103.4
106.6
109.1
110.4
113.3
113.5
102.5
107.3
110.9
109.3
108.8
109.5
111.6
111.6
113.4
113.6
112.5
113.7
112.6
114.3
113.4
113.6
Services
Fuel
oil
and
coal
Other
11.2
10.8
10.9
10.7
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.6
11.4
10.0
10.2
9.6
9.9
10.6
10.0
10.7
10.7
10.1
10.1
9.9
316.7 2,321.3
313.2 2,341.0
318.8 2,409.4
321.5 2,466.7
333.5 2,521.4
339.3 2,577.0
345.9 2,639.1
312.8 2,352.0
322.3 2,437.6
321.8 2,476.7
323.4 2,488.5
329.3 2,498.5
332.3 2,519.9
335.8 2,530.0
336.7 2,537.3
338.4 2,552.5
339.9 2,571.6
340.0 - 2,584.6
338.8 2,599.3
341.6 2,614.7
343.5 2,632.3
347.0 2,640.6
351.5 2,668.7 '
Total
services1
Housing
627:2
635.2
646.8
655.0
668.2
681.7
693.0
638.6
650.6
655.9
658.5
662.1
666.1
670.7
674.1
677.4
680.0
683.2
686.3
689.0
691.6
693.9
697.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Medical
care
602.8
621.6
646.6
658.8
668.8
684.1
698.9
630.8
652.2
659.7
661.4
663.2
667.6
670.4
674.2
677.8
681.3
686.0
691.2
691.1
696.1
699.7
708.7
Retail sates
of new passenger ears
and light
tracks
{millions of
unite)
13.9
12.3
12.8
13.9
15.0
14:7
15.0
12.3
13.3
13.8
'14.6
'15XJ
14.8
'14.9
15.2
'14.9
14.4
'14.9
'15.0
15.2
'15.0
'15.1
14.8
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $19.4 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $47.9 billion in December.
Wages and salaries decreased $4.1 billion in January, following an increase of $41.6 billion in December. In January,
a decline in private-sector average weekly hours more than offset increases in employment and in average hourly
earnings.
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
\
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
2,000
2,000
\
1,400
MOO
OTHER INCOME
-V
800
800
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
im
400
1989
1990
Mill
1994
I M I I I I I I II
1991
1992
1993
I I It 1 IHI II i M I I I M IM
1995
* SEASONAILT ADJUSIH} A^NUAL RA1ES
SOURCE 0&*jrM&U Of COMWSICE
1996
400
1997
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVBStS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1996: Jan
Peb
Mar
May
July
Aufif
Sept
Oct'
Novr
Decr
1997- Jan'
. ..
>
3,877.3
4,172.8
4,489.3
4,791.6
4,968.5
5,264.2
5,480.1
5,753.1
6,115.1
6,452.4
6,270.1
6,315.2
6,340.1
6,371.5
6,405.2
6,460.3
6,463.1
6,502.5
6,538.7
6,543.6
6,585.2
6,633.1
6,652.5
Wage and
salary
disbursements1
2,272.7
2,453.6
2,598.1
2,757.5
2,827.6
2,986.4
3,090.7
3,241.8
3,430.6
3,630.4
3,508.1
3,546.0
3,560.6
3,579.1
3,597.2
3,643.1
3,630.8
3,660.9
3,687.2
3,682.4
3,713.6
3,755.2
3,751.1
Proprietors' income3
Other labor
income12
235.4
251.7
273.1
300.6
322.7
351.3
380.9
402.2
424.0
436.2
427.4
429.1
430.8
432.4
434.0
435.6
437.1
438.6
440.1
441.5
442.9
444.3
445.1
1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and
the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
Farm
32.3
28.2
36.8
36.3
30.2
38.0
32.0
35.0
29.0
46.4
36.2
38.8
40.1
43.2
46.2
48.0
50.0
52.2
53.1
51.2
49.5
48.2
47.2
3
Nonfarm
260.6
294.7
308.2
324.6
332.7
371.5
388.1
415.9
449.3
471.9
457.0
461.3
465.1
467.3
469.9
471.0
472.7
473.7
477.3
479.9
482.6
484.7
486.9
Rental
income
of
persons4
45.5
55.7
52.4
61.4
68.4
80.6
102.5
116.6
122.2
126.8
129.1
126.7
125.0
124.1
124.8
124.6
126.3
126.6
128.0
128.8
128.6
128.5
130.0
Personal
dividend
income
101.1
109.9
130.9
142.9
153.6
159.4
186.8
199.6
214.8
230.6
225.3
226.5
227.9
228.7
229.4
229.9
230.8
231.5
232.3
233.3
234.7
236.5
238.2
Personal
interest
income
560.0
595.5
674.5
704.4
699.2
667.2
648.1
663.7
717.1
738.0
728.4
725.6
724.3
728.1
733.6
737.5
740.6
743.0
745.1
747.4
749.8
752.5
754.9
Transfer
payments*
Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance
543.3
577.6
626.0
687.8
769.9
858.2
910.7
956.3
1,022.6
1,079.8
1,057.4
1,062.5
1,069.0
1,072.5
1,075.4
1,078.9
1,082.5
1,085.6
1,087.3
1,090.2
1,096.6
1,099.2
1,117.0
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments,
With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payment*.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
4
5
173.7
194.2
210.8
223.9
235.8
248.4
259.6
278.1
294.5
307.5
298.9
301.5
302.7
303.9
305.2
308.4
307.7
309.8
311.7
311.0
313.2
316.0
317.9
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose at an annual
rate of 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 1996.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' [RATIO SCALE!
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS' |RAnO SCALE)
I I I
DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)
22,000
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
20,000
CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS
18,000
\ ^ . — — — -r — — — 1-
_
•""
~
~^-
*
r^~^~
r •—"1
18,000
16,000
r--"
14,000
• _
^
16,000
=J^r 1
14,000
CURRENT DOUARS
-X-—
12,000
12,000
"""
—
10,000
10,000
^
8,000
1982
i i i
1983
2,000
DOUARS' (RATO SCALE)
,-_—— 22,000
20,000
i } i
1984
l i l
!
1985
1986
1
1
1 1 1
1987
1988
i i i
1989
< i i
1990
1
1991
1
!
1992
i it
i ii
1993
1994
i 'i i
1995
i i t
1996
8,000
OOUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVKBtS
Period
Personal
income
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
Equals:
Disposable
personal
income
Less:
Personal
outlays1
Equals:
Personal
saving
Disposable
personal
income in
billions of
chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita
disposable personal
income
Current
dollars
.. ..
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995r
1996
4,489.3
4,791.6
4,968.5
5,264.2
5,480.1
5,753.1
6,115.1
6,452.4
594.9
624.8
624.8
650.5
689.9
731.4
794.3
863.9
3,894.5
4,166.8
4,343.7
4,613.7
4,790.2
5,021.7
5,320.8
5,588.5
Current
dollars
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Dollars
Billions of dollars
1989
Chained
(1992)
dollars
Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures
3,706.7
3,958.1
4,097.4
4,341.0
4,575.8
4,832.3
5,071.5
5,314.5
187.8
208.7
246.4
272.6
214.4
189.4
249.3
273.9
4,403.7
4,484.6
4,486.4
4,613.7
4,666.9
4,778.2
4,945.8
5,088.2
15,742
16,670
17,191
18,062
18,555
19,264
20,224
21,050
Percent
change
in real
per capita
disposable
personal
income
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
overseas
(thousands) =
Percent
17,801
17,941
17,756
18,062
18,078
18,330
18,799
19,166
14,531
15,360
15,732
16,520
17,253
18,033
18,719
19,406
16,430
16,532
16,249
16,520
16,809
17,159
17,400
17,669
17,759
18,277
17,900
18,069
18,084
18,256
17,966
18,346
18,430
18,574
18,704
18,676
18,829
18,986
19,041
19,063
19,242
19,316
15,871
16,877
16,984
17,164
17,335
17,528
17,714
17,924
18,154
18,338
18,463
18,689
18,823
18,901
19,128
19,383
19,433
19,679
16,194
16,692
16,681
16,754
16,864
16,937
17,019
17,127
17,200
17,290
17,296
17,393
17,454
17,458
17,573
17,679
17,657
17,767
1.0
.8
-1.0
1.7
.1
1.4
2.6
2.0
4.8
5.0
5.7
5.9
4.5
3.8
4.7
4.9
247,387
-8.0
3.8
.3
3.9
-6.2
8.7
1.8
3.2
2.8
-.6
3.3
3.4
1.2
.5
3.8
1.5
6.0
6.1
4.2
4.8
4.2
4.7
2.7
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.9
4.1
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.3
5.3
5.1
253,743
256,543
257,155
257,787
258,501
259,192
259,738
260,327
261,004
261,653
262,181
262,748
263,399
264,032
264,563
265,155
265,806
266,405
249,956
252,680
255,432
258,159
260,681
263,090
265,482
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1991: IV
1992: IV
1993: I
1994:
n
in
rv
I
n
in
IV
1995: I
n
ffl
IV
1996: I
n
m
rv'
1
5,048.9
5,415.3
5,349.1
5,459.2
5,501.6
5,610.5
5,562.4
5,739.1
5,808.2
5,902.7
6,004.5
6,074.4
6,146.9
6,234.5
6,308.5
6,412.4
6,501.4
6,587.3
632.5
674.8
662.4
686.9
6964
713.8
705.5
740.8
731.3
748.1
770.0
801.5
798.4
807.2
824.9
870.6
872.5
887.6
4,416.4
4,740.5
4,686.7
4,772.3
4,805 2
4,896.7
4,856.8
4,998.3
5,076.9
5,154.6
5,234.5
5,272.9
5,348.5
5,427.3
5,483.5
5,541.8
5,628.9
5,699.7
4,149.8
4,450.0
4,489.2
4,545.5
4,602.2
4,666.3
4,728.0
4,796.1
4,870.8
4,934.2
4,980.3
5,054.4
5,106.6
5,144.7
5,218.1
5,300.7
5,329.8
5,409.5
266.6
290.5
197.4
226.8
202.9
230.5
128.8
202.2
206.2
220.4
254.2
218.5
241.9
282.6
265.4
241.1
299.1
290.2
4,506.3
4,688.7
4,603.0
4,658.0
4,674.8
4,731.7
4,666.5
4,776.0
4,810.2
4,859.9
4,903.8
4,907.1
4,959.5
5,012.9
5,037.6
5,054.5
5,114.6
5,145.9
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and peraonal transfer
payments to rest of the world (net).
2
17,405
18,478
18,225
18,513
18,589
18,892
18,699
19,200
19,452
19,700
19,965
20,068
20,306
20,555
20,727
20,900
21,177
21,395
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the second quarter of 1996, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $12.3 billion (annual
rate) and net farm income rose $5.1 billion.
BIUJONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
,
160 V
y-
p
""
N_^\xv
^—/T^^
r^ 1
^"^
~^~-^
~~^~
1
u*UbSrAt
'
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
240
p
.
•
j.
~^>
, -*
c
"
200
160
120
tt
80
60
\
1
i
K i"\
1 \/
»
1
v/
'-/
* /i
'\
k
'
1»
I
"
\ '
\_j
\
/
l\ 1
\J
\'
'
^
\ /
r^~^>
,
x^
y
N>
\
s
1
x*
/
\'.
60
\A'
\/
\
NET FARM INCO/v€
20
'
R J
> in
1 Ml
1 | if
10
•l
i i i
4
1982
1983
1 1 1
1984
1
'
*
1985
i ii
1987
1986
i i i
1988
1
1
1
1989
i i i
1990
i t i
1991
i i i
1992
i i i
1993
> i t
1994
.
1995
i i t
1996
• SEASONAUY AQJUSIH) HUM HA1ES
COUNdlOf ECONOMIC ADVBBB
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Gross farm income
Period
Cash marketing receipts
Total1
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1994- I
II ...
Ill
IV ...
1995- I
II
III
IV
1996- IP
HP ...
.. ..
168.4
177.9
191.9
198.2
191.9
200.6
204.2
215.8
210.4
221.2
208.6
214.1
219.4
208.3
206.4
218.5
208.4
233.1
245.4
141.8
151.2
160.8
169.5
167.9
171.3
177.6
180.8
185.8
179.9
170.8
186.9
185.5
180.6
181.0
199.8
181.5
193.5
209.5
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms,
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year.
Livestock and
products
76.0
79.6
83.9
89.2
85.8
85.6
90.2
88.1
86.8
92.1
82.9
97.7
79.9
83.2
81.6
96.1
86.5
85.3
89.7
Crops
65.8
71.6
76.9
80.3
82.1
85.7
87.5
92.6
98.9
87.9
88.0
89.2
105.5
97.4
99.4
103.7
95.1
108.2
119.8
Value of
inventory
changes2
-23
-4.1
3.8
3.3
-.2
4.2
-4.5
8.2
-3.4
10.2
9.6
7.3
5.8
-4.1
-3.9
-3.0
-2.4
6.4
6.1
Production
expenses
131.0
139.9
146.7
153.4
153.3
152.5
160.5
167.4
175.6
164.5
166.8
168.8
169.6
172.4
175.4
177.5
177.0
178.4
185.6
Net farm
income
37.4
38.0
45.3
44.8
38.5
48.0
43.6
48.4
34.8
56.7
41.8
45.3
49.8
35.9
30.9
41.0
31.4
54.7
59.8
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.
Quarterly data plotted for 1989 through 1993 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to
annual data in table.
Sources: Department of Agriculture.
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1996, corporate profits before tax fell $9.0 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell
$5.9 billion.
BIlUONSOf DOUARS
650
BILUONS OF DOUARS
650
SEASONAU.Y AOJUSTH3 ANNUAL RATES
600
500
\
/
PROFTTS BEFORE TAX
./\
400
s-r\
350
S
300
250
200
V
r—^
/^
M
1
-^—^7r\
V..
PRC frTSAFTERTAX
x->
s—~~
--->
,.-'
S ^.~-'
/'
f
i i (
< ( t
1
1982
1983
1984
1
( I 1
f
1985
K
1986
' \'
'
V
200
/-.*
^
f\
t
1988
1989
I
I
1990
I
I
1991
1
\
\ 1
1992
i l l
1
1993
1994
I
1
i t i
1995
ISO
100
50
-0
/
UNIasTRBur DPROfil >
1987
250
~.^- '"—
\ f
\•r f ,
""*—'*
j
,
v
S"-*
's..— ^'
».-•''"
*•"
V.-.-.'
100
-—.^
50
V
^
TAXI1ABIUTY
\
^'
,'
^
s
^~/
— N.
~— _
,--*•'
S
S
'V
"•*•-'
./
J
J
f
^
150
0
550
500
450
400
350
300
-
A
550
450
Pn 600
r
1996
GOUN3LOFKXMQAmCAWEBB
SOUKfcDB*UTTMENTOFCXMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventoiy valuation adjustment l
Profits after tax
Domestic industries
Period
Total 2
Total
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996P
1991: IV
1992: IV
1993: I
II
m
IV
1994- I
H
III
IV
1995- I
II
m
IV
1996- I
II
in
We
1
Financial
Totals
Manufacturing
Wholesale
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Retail
325.0
330.6
358.2
378.2
398.9
457.7
517.9
570.8
274.3
272.6
292.5
309.5
334.0
388.1
453.7
494.1
43.0
53.1
68.6
87.4
83.7
91.0
94.4
119.1
231.2
219.6
223.8
222.1
250.3
297.2
359.3
375.0
115.1
109.3
112.3
92.7
96.3
109.7
142.7
145.7
19.3
20.4
17.2
20.6
23.0
25.5
34.5
29.6
19.6
20.7
20.6
26.1
32.2
39.2
42.2
38.7
354.3
348.1
371.7
374.2
406.4
464.3
531.2
598.9
137.0
141.3
140.5
133.4
143.0
163.8
195.3
218.7
217.3
206.8
231.2
240.8
263.4
300.5
335.9
380.2
375.2
420.5
422.4
442.0
465.9
500.5
471.6
516.2
534.3
549.6
542.6
547.3
597.9
595.3
624.8
633.5
637.6
303.6
361.2
347.0
375.7
393.1
436.8
407.0
452.4
469.9
485.5
467.5
468.2
527.1
513.7
541.6
555.1
561.0
87.6
83.1
85.7
88.1
88.8
101.3
64.9
97.8
108.4
106.4
114.3
112.6
130.4
119.3
134.9
136.6
135.0
216.1
278.1
261.2
287.6
304.3
335.4
342.1
354.6
361.5
379.0
353.2
355.6
396.7
394.4
406.7
418.5
426.1
83.8
105.1
90.4
108.4
106.0
134.0
145.3
134.2
142.8
148.4
134.7
137.8
153.2
157.3
161.3
164.7
170.6
17.0
28.3
17.9
28.6
27.0
28.7
28.8
39.5
34.3
35.4
29.7
26.4
31.2
31.2
37.5
32.8
34.5
28.6
37.3
36.3
38.1
42.4
39.8
38.3
43.2
43.7
43.6
36.0
36.6
42.5
39.6
41.7
44.3
44.5
382.8
420.3
437.0
457.6
458.0
504.5
475.5
526.0
550.8
572.4
594.5
589.6
607.2
604.2
642.2
644.6
635.6
135.2
149.7
151.5
162.6
159.3
181.7
171.4
192.8
203.4
213.5
217.3
214.2
224.5
218.7
233.4
236.4
233.4
247.6
270.6
285.6
295.0
298.6
322.8
304.1
333.3
347.4
358.8
377.2
375.3
382.8
385.5
408.8
408.1
402.2
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
z
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Profits
before
tax
Nonfinancial
3
116.8
138.9
151.9
163.1
169.5
197.3
211.0
227.4
244.2
165.3
180.4
190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9
204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5
221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7
239.9
243.1
245.2
248.7
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Undistributed
profits
100.5
67.9
79.4
77.7
93.9
103.2
124.8
152.8
82.2
90.3
95.3
99.2
98.4
119.9
99.7
124.5
134.9
140.3
155.5
150.8
154.3
150.8
168.9
165.1
156.9
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
-29.3
-17.5
-13.5
4.0
-7.5
-6.6
-13.3
-28.1
'-8.6
-7.6
' .2
-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0
-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8
-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8
-17.4
-11.0
2.0
'-8.1
REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
In the fourth quarter of 1996, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)
dollars rose $104 billion (annual rate) and residential Investment fell $0.2 billion. There was an increase of $16.4
billion in inventories following an increase of $34.5 billion in the third quarter.
BIUJONS OF CHAINS) 11992) DOUARS
BIUIONS Of CHAINED (1992) OCULARS
1,100
5£A5ON4UY,AflJUSTH>>U*JU4iR«ES
r
1,000
900
800
f^^
700
600
500
r—'|X_yw-<~^r\
1 \ 1
,
•xy
•x •
*»» ^
> __ *
s
/•
x
^ "**
*~?' _ < • — •
+~/~
s~
800
*• "*
700
•\-
600
^
,~ — ~
"\
-IONRESIC
FKEDINVESTMENT
500
RESIDENTLM
FIXED INVEST/ItfNT
300
300
, \,
__..
200
— .-
,_.—•
•^.^
^
~.~-'
200
s*
— .~,-^
100
-100
_„_
400
400
0
1,000
900
y -
1 K
/
1,100
f/
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVES1MENT
1
f^^*—
S
* ™* "* N
f
f
t
CHAM5EINBU. INESS
VENTORI
"•—*•*
\
\
i i i
1982
100
*" •*
*"\
,^
\
'*
f
_'\
^ *
v -.
f*
1
1 1
1983
i i i
111
I
1984
1985
1986
I l
V
t
i i
1987
i t i
i t i
1
1988
1989
1990
f
>•»
" ^ — %X
—
0
"
1
1991
i i i
i ii
1992
1993
SOURCE DBWOMENr Of COMMHCE
1
I
-100
1
1994
1995
1996
COUNCl Of ECONOMIC ADMSHS
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Fixed investment
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Period
1988
1989 .,
1990
1991
1992
1993
Change in business
inventories
Nonresidential
Total
Total
818.3
832.0
805.8
741.3
783.4
836.4
921.1 :
975.9
1,042.3
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
369.2
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
427.6
484.1
534.5
578.7
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
277.0
368.1
403.5
202.4
236.7
11.6
33.3
10.4
-3.0
7.3
19.1
58.9
33.1
13.7
21.4
5.8
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8
18.5
20.8
19.5
17.4
24.7
33.5
7.8
-1.2
1.9
26.4
46.8
37.2
16.9
19.9
7.2
26.0
26.7
30.9
22.1
Total
Nonfarm
1991- TV
1992: IV
762.4
812.4
742.0
805.8
539.5
569.1
19Q3. T
834.8
843.2
857.6
893.5
815.4
821.1
835.4
873.5
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
196.8
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
166.3
168.8
181.1
189.9
171.4
165.6
167.0
164.8
165.1
168.2
933.6
984.8
994.2
1,005.9
892.4
911.4
930.8
949.7
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
163.0
169.0
169.1
174.3
466.4
471.1
492.5
506.5
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
40.5
74.5
64.5
56.1
29.7
54.0
50.5
53.0
1,023.7
996.8
1,015.2
1,004.9
969.5
965.7
980.0
988.5
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
178.5
180.0
182.8
183.2
527.2
531.7
537.4
541.4
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
54.5
30.5
33.0
14.6
57.4
33.7
38.6
19.0
1,011.9
1,038.6
1,093.4
1,084.3
1,013.3
1,031.1
1,057.5
1,067.5
743.5
750.5
781.4
791.8
186.6
184.9
188.6
199.5
558.3
567.5
595.0
593.8
271.1
281.5
277.8
277.6
-3.0
7.1
34.5
16.4
2.9
11.7
34.6
18.4
826.0
861.9
817.3
737.7
790.4
857.3
979.6
1,010.2
1,057.0
...
1Q<U
1995
IMfir
n
m
IV
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995- I
n
in
IV
199fi- T
n
in
TV'
. ..
NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type.
Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar estimates
for the detailed components do not odd to the ehained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi-
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
766.8
410.5
421.7
428.2
449.8
•
ate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE
[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nonresidential
Residential
Producers' durable equipment
Structures
Period
Total
nonresideutial
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991:
IV
1992: IV
1993: I
n
m
IV
1994:
I
n
m
IV
1995' I
n
m
IV
1996:
.'
I
n
m
IV'
566.0
588.8
585.2
547.7
557.9
593.6
652.1
714.3
766.8
539.5
569.1
577.5
586.4
593.1
617.6
628.5
639.5
660.5
679.7
704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
750.5
781.4
791.8
Total'
Nonresidential
buildings,
including
farm
145.3
150.2
152.0
126.9
113.2
112.8
117.7
127.9
134.5
116.4
109.8
111.4
110.6
112.7
116.3
112.4
117.8
117.4
123.3
125.4
126.8
129.2
130.3
131.4
129.7
133.0
143.8
196.8
201.2
203.3
181.6
169.2
166.3
168.8
181.1
189.9
171.4
165.6
167.0
164.8
165.1
168.2
163.0
169.0
169.1
174.3
178.5
180.0
182.8
183.2
186.6
184.9
188.6
199.5
Structures
Information processing
and related equipment
Utilities
Mining
exploration,
shafts,
and
wells
Total'
30.0
30.9
28.1
32.0
34.5
31.1
31.7
35.1
36.5
33.3
33.9
32.4
31.0
30.7
30.5
30.7
31.2
32.1
32.7
33.7
34.8
35.8
36.0
36.4
36.8
36.4
36.6
15.8
13.9
16.1
15.7
13.3
14.8
12.6
11.2
13.0
14.4
13.7
15.2
15.2
14.6
14.2
13.4
13.3
12.2
11.5
12.5
10.7
11.0
10.5
12.8
12.9
13.5
12.6
369.2
387.6
381.9
366.2
388.7
427.6
484.1
534.5
578.7
368.1
403.5
410.5
421.7
428.2
449.8
466.4
471.1
492.5
506.5
527.2
531.7
537.4
541.4
558.3
567.5
595.0
593.8
Total
Computers
and
peripheral
equipment2
Other
Industrial
equipment
106.6
116.2
116.2
117.8
134.2
147.1
170.4
201.1
241.9
122.5
138.9
139.5
142.2
150.7
156.0
161.2
166.6
171.6
182.4
189.1
199.7
201.4
214.4
225.5
234.1
250.5
257.5
24.0
29.4
29.4
32.4
43.9
56.2
69.3
91.5
132.7
36.6
47.5
51.1
52.9
58.3
62.5
64.5
67.1
69.3
76.3
80.2
88.2
91.9
105.6
117.2
126.3
138.9
148.4
85.7
88.1
88.2
85.9
90.2
91.5
102.6
114.2
122.1
86.2
91.5
88.6
89.6
93.1
94.6
97.8
100.8
103.6
108.3
111.5
115.1
114.0
116.2
118.1
119.7
125.5
125.2
95.3
101.5
95.0
88.3
89.3
96.3
105.9
116.2
118.3
86.4
92.6
93.7
94.4
96.3
100.7
102.8
104.3
107.0
109.4
114.2
118.4
116.6
115.4
117.8
120.6
118.0
116.8
1
Transportation
and
related
equipment
87.1
78.9
81.2
81.7
86.2
97.5
111.7
118.1
120.1
81.6
91.5
93.0
99.5
95.0
102.7
109.0
105.3
115.8
116.6
121.9
114.9
120.3
115.4
117.5
114.9
126.5
121.6
Total
residential3
Total
Single
family
Multifamily
Other
252.5
243.2
220.6
193.4
225.6
242.7
268.9
262.8
277.0
202.4
236.7
237^9
234.8
242.2
255.8
263.6
271.6
270.3
270.3
265.9
256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
281.5
277.8
277.6
246.3
237.0
214.5
187.6
219.5
236.3
262.1
255.8
269.9
196.6
230.5
231.7
228.5
235.7
249.2
257.0
264.8
263.5
263.2
258.9
249.6
255.3
259.3
264.1
274.3
270.6
270.4
126.1
121.9
110.4
96.4
116.5
127.1
140.5
127.7
135.5
105.1
121.6
• 124.9
122.5
126.3
134.4
140.3
143.5
140.8
137.4
133.0
123.0
125.8
129.1
132.5
137.6
136.7
135.3
23.4
23.3
19.7
15.4
13.1
10.4
13.5
17.6
19.4
14.2
11.5
W.3
10.0
10.7
10.6
11.2
12.8
14.5
1,5.6
16.8
17.4
17.8
18.5
19.2
21.0
17.9
19.5
96.8
91.8
84.4
75.7
89.9
98.8
108.1
110.9
115.5
77.3
97.4
96.5
96.0
98.7
104.1
105.4
108.4
108.2
110.4
109.3
109.8
112.2
112.4
113.0
116.3
116.6
116.2
NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDI', the chained (1992) dollar
estimates for the detailed components do not adtl to the chained-dollar value of GDI1 or to any
intermediate aggregates.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Includes other items, not shown separately.
2
Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.
3
Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS
[Bfflions of dollars]
By industry
Period
1993'
19942
19953
1996 4
Total
expenditures "
489.7
549.9
594.5
603.4
Total
488.2
547.8
591.7
600.7
Mining
and
construction
31.2
36.1
36.0
33.6
Manufacturing
Total
134.1
153.3
172.3
184.8
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
66.4
78.9
91.4
100.2
67.7
74.4
80.9
84.6
1
Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
a Revised estimates collected from the 1994 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey. Final data
are scheduled for release in summer 1996.
3
Revised estimates collected from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey. Final data will
be available upon release of the 1995 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
* Estimates of planned capital expenditures from the March 1996 Investment Plans Survey.
10
Transportation
Communications
30.6
33.3
37.0
35.2
37.1
41.5
46.0
46.3
Utilities
41.3
42.2
42.8
40.6
Wholesale
and
retail
trade
Pinance,
insurance,
and
real
estate
60.3
68.9
75.1
71.9
40.2
46.8
57.3
57.7
Services
111.8
123.5
123.7
129.4
Not
Serving distributed
mulby
tiple
indusindustry
tries
1.7
2.2
1.5
1.3
1.4
2.2
2.8
2.7
NOTE.—Data for 1994-1996 from Business Investment and Plans released March 28, 1996.
Data for 1993 from Annual Capital Expenditure*: 1993.
The Business Investment and Hans release haa been discontinued effective with release of
the March 1996 survey estimates. Estimates of business investment and plans will be available
annually with release of the Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In January, after adjusting for the effect of revised population controls, employment rose by 433,000 and unemployment rose by 75,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS *
138
138
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Civilian employment
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990 3
1991
.. .
1992
1993
1994*
1995
1996
1996- Jan .
Peb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Dec
1997' Jan3
Civilian
noninstitational
population
NSA
182,753
184,613
186,393
189,164
190,925
192,805
194,838
196,814
198,584
200,591
199,634
199,772
199,921
200,101
200,278
200,459
200,641
200,847
201,060
201,273
201,463
201,636
202,285
Civilian
labor
force
Nonagricultural
Total
Agricultural
119,865
121,669
123,869
125,840
126,346
128,105
129,200
131,056
132,304
133,943
112,440
114,968
117,342
118,793
117,718
118,492
120,259
123,060
124,900
126,708
3,208
3,169
3,199
3,223
3,269
3,247
3,115
3,409
3,440
3,443
109,232
111,800
114,142
115,570
114,449
115,245
117,144
119,651
121,460
123,264
132,899
133,070
133,464
133,427
133,759
133,709
134,165
133,898
134,291
134,636
134,831
135,022
135,848
125,311
125,706
126,062
126,125
126,428
126,590
126,889
126,988
127,248
127,617
127,644
127,855
128,580
3,498
3,499
3,470
3,412
3,474
3,408
3,470
3,418
3,480
3,450
3,354
3,426
3,468
121,813
122,207
122,592
122,713
122,954
123,182
123,419
123,570
123,768
124,167
124,290
124,429
125,112
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find
fulIUrae work, etc.
2 Chilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and
unemployment as percent of Chilian labor force.
3
Not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Total
Percent2
Unemployment
Part time
for
economic1
reasons
5,122
4,965
4,657
4,950
5,874
6,240
6,230
4,414
4,279
4,123
3,940
4,224
4,224
4,251
4,109
4,161
4,150
4,182
4,130
4,118
3,815
4,162
4,163
Total
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,588
7,364
7,402
7,302
7,331
7,119
7,276
6,910
7,043
7,019
7,187
7,167
7,268
15
weeks
and
over
Not in
labor
force
1,983
1,610
1,375
1,525
2,357
3,408
3,094
2,860
2,363
2,316
62,888
62,944
62,523
63,324
64,578
64,700
65,638
65,758
66,280
66,647
2,369
2,322
2,406
2,387
2,354
2,353
2,326
2,273
2,277
2,294
2,184
2,179
2,155
66,735
66,703
66,457
66,674
66,519
66,750
66,476
66,949
66,770
66,637
66,632
66,614
66,437
Labor
force
participation
rate
Employment/
population
ratio
Unemployment
rate
65.6
65.9
66.5
66.5
66.2
66.4
66.3
66.6
66.6
66.8
66.6
66.6
66.8
66.7
66.8
66.7
66.9
66.7
66.8
66.9
66.9
67.0
67.2
61.5
62.3
63.0
62.8
61.7
61.5
61.7
62.5
62.9
63.2
62.8
62.9
63.1
63.0
63.1
63.2
63.2
63.2
63.3
63.4
63.4
63.4
63.6
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
4
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire.
^ NOTE.—Data beginning January 1997 reflect revised population controls. See Employment
and Earnings, February 1997, for details.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOtJ&f RATES
In January, the unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent, from 5.3 percent in December.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25
TEENAGERS .
(16-19)
20
15
10
10
MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
V
WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER
1997
1993
1994
1993
mull
1995
1996
•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of Chilian labor force in group)
By race
By sex and age
Period
AB
civilian
workers
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 2
1994
1995
1996
1996: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Dec
1997- Jan
1
Kevised
2
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and over
5.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
6.4
7.1
6.4
5.4
4.8
4.6
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.2
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
5.4
4.9
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.8
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.6
Both
sexes
16-19
Black
White
16.9
15.3
15.0
15.5
18.7
20.1
19.0
17.6
17.3
16.7
17.8
17.0
17.1
16.8
16.6
16.2
16.7
17.0
16.0
16.3
16.8
16.5
17.0
and
Black
other
years
definition; for details, see Employment and Earning^ February 1994.
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over.
12
By selected groups
5.3
4.7
4.5
4.8
6.1
6.6
6.1
5.3
4.9
4.7
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
11.6
10.4
10.0
10.1
11.1
12.7
11.7
10.5
9.6
9.3
9.5
9.3
9.6
9.4
9.3
9.1
9.3
8.9
9.2
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.4
Experienced
wage
and
salary
workers
13.0
11.7
11.4
11.4
12.5
14.2
13.0
11.5
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.3
10.8
10.5
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.4
10.7
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.8
5.8
5.2
5.0
5.3
6.6
7.2
6.6
5.9
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.1
Married
Women
spouse
present
maintain
families
men,
who
3.9
3.3
3.0
3.4
4.4
5.1
4.4
3.7
3.3
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
9.2
8.1
8.1
8.3
9.3
10.0
9.7
8.9
8.0
8.2
8.2
7.6
7.7
7.3
8.5
7.8
8.8
8.5
8.3
8.5
8.8
8.4
9.1
Full-time
workers1
Part-time
workers1
6.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.2
5.2
6.9
6.4
6.2
6.4
7.0
7.5
7.2
6.0
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.6
6.0
5.9
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.8
5.7
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
PROGRAMS
In January, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27
weeks and over rose; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemployment
rose to 16.0 weeks and the median duration fell to 7.7 weeks.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION •'
70
TO
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
JOB LOSERS-1'
50
40
REENTRANTS
JOB LEAVERS
NEW ENTRANTS
1993
M 111! Itll
1994
M i nil I n 1 1 1 1 1 n
1995
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3J BEGINNING JANUARY 1994, JO» LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPtETED TEMPORARY JOBS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1996
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally actuated, except as noted]
Duration of unemployment
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
43.7
46.0
48.6
46.3
40.3
35.1
36.5
34.1
36.5
36.4
36.9
37.2
35.8
34.2
37.1
35.8
36.0
36.2
35.8
35.9
38.9
37.1
39.0
29.6
30.0
30.3
32.0
32.4
29.4
28.9
30.1
31.6
31.6
31.5
31.2
31.4
32.5
31.1
31.0
31.9
31.4
31.9
31.8
31.0
32.7
31.0
Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution
State
programs
Number of weeks
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
12.7
12.0
11.2
11.7
14.4
15.1
14.5
15.5
14.6
14.6
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.3
14.1
14.8
13.7
14.3
14.8
14.9
14.0
13.5
13.1
14.0
12.1
9.9
10.0
12.9
20.3
20.1
20.3
17.3
17.4
16.7
16.7
17.8
18.0
17.6
18.3
18.4
18.1
17.6
17.3
16.1
16.7
16.9
14.5
13.5
11.9
12.0
13.7
17.7
18.0
18.8
16.6
16.7
16.2
16.6
17.2
17.3
16.9
17.2
16.9
17.2
16.9
16.7
16.0
15.8
16.0
6.5
5.9
4.8
5.3
6.8
8.7
8.3
9.2
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.4
8.1
8.5
8.5
8.6
8.3
7.7
7.8
7.7
Job
losers1
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
26.6
27.0
28.2
27.4
24.8
23.8
24.6
34.8
34.1
34.7
33.0
33.8
34.2
34.0
36.8
34.4
35.0
35.8
34.7
35.4
35.1
35.3
34.6
12.4
12.2
10.4
9.8
9.2
9.7
10.3
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.4
7.7
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.2
8.1
8.6
8.3
Insured
unemployment
Insured
unemall
Initial
claims
regular
programs
(unatljusted)2
Weekly average, thousands
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 3
1994
1995
1996
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan
1
7,425
6,701
6,528
7,047
8,628
9,613
8,940
7,996
7,404
7,236
7,588
7,364
7,402
7,302
7,331
7,119
7,276
6,910
7,043
7,019
7,187
7,167
7,268
Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.
Includes State (50 Stoles, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Alao includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental
compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.
3
Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with daU for earlier periods.
2
48.0
46.1
45.7
48.1
54.4
56.1
54.2
47.7
46.9
46.6
47.7
47.9
47.3
48.3
46.4
48.0
46.4
44.9
46.0
45.1
45.3
44.4
44.8
13.0
14.7
15.7
14.8
11.6
10.4
10.9
9.9
11.1
10.7
11.1
10.1
10.5
9.9
9.4
9.9
10.5
11.2
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.7
12.3
2,300
2,081
2,158
2,522
3,342
3,245
2,751
2,670
2,575
2,594
'2,642
'2,652
'2,639
'2,584
'2,554
'2,573
'2,535
'2,524
'2,468
'2,470
'2,444
'2,518
2,453
328
310
330
388
447
408
341
340
357
356
'371
'369
'389
356
'349
'355
'334
'325
'335
'334
'338
355
334
2,369
2,135
2,205
2,575
3,406
3,348
2,845
2,739
2,636
2,649
3,499
3,333
3,161
2,934
2,352
2,383
2,550
2,254
2,184
2,046
2,104
'2,740
3,502
NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years of age and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims).
Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment and initial claims data revised beginning 19&4.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 271,000 in January.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
130
34
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
34
32
SERVICES
30
28
100
26
90
24
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
22
80
20
18
16
20
40
MANUFACTURING
18
GOC)DS-PRODUC NG
INDUSTRIES
1
' 1993
—
\
—
Illllllllll
6
4
Illllllllll Illllllllll 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1
1995
1994
1996
1997
CONSTRUCTION
inn inn Illllllllll Illllllllll
1993
^
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers;J seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries
Goods-producing industries
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 r
1996- Jan
Feb
July
Sept
Oct r
Nov
Decr
1997- Jan''
Total
nonagricultural
employment
101,958
105,210
107,895
109,419
108,256
108,604
110,730
114,172
117,203
119,557
118,070
118,579
118,750
118,922
119,332
119,537
119,772
120,052
120,050
120,311
120,492
120,753
121,024
Trans-
Manufacturing
Total2
Construction
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
24,674 4,958 18,999 11,154
25,125 5,098 19,314 11,363
25,254 5,171 19,391 11,394
24,905 5,120 19,076 11,109
23,745 4,650 18,406 10,569
23,231 4,492 18,104 10,277
23,352 4,668 18,075 10,221
23,908 4,986 18,321 10,448
24,206 ,5,158 18,468 10,654
24,259 5,406 18,283 10,676
24,112 5,234 18,309 10,643
24,254 5,349 18,332 10,659
24,196 5,341 18,281 10,623
24,209 5,353 18,283 10,654
24,263 5,384 18,303 10,679
24,274 5,401 18,298 10,«96
24,264 5,427 18,267 10,680
24,298 5,437 18,291 10,711
24,257 5,449 18,241 10,675
24,284 5,464 18,254 10,684
24,319 5,491 18,262 10,694
24,359 5,519 18,276 10,711
24,391 5,533 18,294 10,727
7,845
7,951
7,997
7,968
7,837
7,827
7,854
7,873
7,814
7,606
7,666
7,673
7,658
7,629
7,624
7,602
7,587
7,580
7,566
7,570
7,568
7,565
7,567
Total
1
Includes all fall- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricnluiral establishments
who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes
proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total
in this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes,
bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
14
Total
77,284
80,086
82,642
84,514
84,511
85,373
87,378
90,264
92,997
95,298
93,958
94,325
94,554
94,713
95,069
95,263
95,508
95,754
95,793
96,027
96,173
96,394
96,633
tion and
public
utilities
5,362
5,514
5,625
5,793
5,762
5,721
5,829
5,993
6,165
6,316
6,254
6,270
6,292
6,294
6,309
6,329
6,333
6,342
6,337
6,338
6,350
6,341
6,357
Wholesale
trade
5,848
6,030
6,187
6,173
6,081
5,997
5,981
«,162
6,412
6,587
6,512
6,529
6,548
6,550
6,567
6,575
6,585
6,603
6,619
6,643
6,651
6,655
6,662
Retail
trade
18,422
19,023
19,475
19,601
19,284
19,356
19,773
20,507
21,173
21,597
21,268
21,340
21,350
21,415
21,485
21,568
21,671
21,672
21,702
21,803
21,857
21,930
21,949
Finance,
insurance, Services
and real
estate
6,533
6,630
6,668
6,709
6,646
6,602
6,757
6,896
6,830
6,977
6,894
6,919
6,931
6,942
6,964
6,967
6,987
6,999
7,009
7,026
7,038
7,054
7,063
24,110
25,504
26,907
27,934
28,336
29,052
30,197
31,579
33,107
34,360
33,694
33,902
34,039
34,117
34,285
34,378
34,448
34,532
34,607
34,709
34,780
34,880
35,047
Government
Total
17,010
17,386
17,779
18,304
18,402
18,645
18,841
19,128
19,310
19,462
19,336
19,365
19,394
19,395
19,459
19,446
19,484
19,606
19,519
19,508
19,497
19,534
19,555
Federal
2,943
2,971
2,988
3,085
2,966
2,969
2,915
2,870
2,822
2,757
2,783
2,780
2,780
2,776
2,776
2,756
2,752
2,739
2,739
2,731
2,733
2,729
2,726
employing establishments. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job
are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, where
persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force.
2
Includes mining:, not shown separately.
Not*-.—Data for March 1996-August 1996 were revised in October 1996 to reflect revised
seasonal adjustment factors..
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGHICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average weekly hount
Average gross hourly earnings
Total
private
nonagricultural 1
Period
34.8
34.7
34.6
34.5
34.3
34.4
34.5
34.7
34.5
34.4
33.8
34.5
34.5
34.3
34.2
34.7
34.2
34.4
34.7
34.3
34.6
34.8
34.1
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996J1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jnly
Sept
Oct
Nov'
Dec'
1997- JanP
Total
41.0
41.1
41.0
40.8
40.7
41.0
41.4
42.0
41.6
41.6
40.0
41.4
41.3
41.5
41.7
41.8
41.6
41.7
41.7
41.7
41.7
42.0
41.7
Average gross weekly earnings
Total private
nonagricultural '
Total private
nonagrieultural *
Manufacturing
Overtime
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
Current
dollars
$8.98
9.28
9.66
10.01
10.32
10.57
10.83
11.12
11.44
11.82
11.62
11.65
11.68
11.72
11.74
11.83
11.81
11.87
11.91
11.90
11.99
12.05
12.06
1982
Italian^
Manufacturing
$7.73
7.69
7.64
7.52
7.45
7.41
7.39
7.40
7.40
7.43
7.41
'7.41
7.40
7.40
'7.40
'7.45
'7.42
7.45
7.45
'7.41
7.45
7.47
7.46
$9.91
10.19
10.48
10.83
11.18
11.46
11.74
12.07
12.37
12.78
12.63
12.56
12.55
12.74
12.73
12.77
12.79
12.89
12.87
12.88
12.94
13.00
13.06
3
1
Also
2
includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and
clerical workers (CPi-W) (on a 1982=100 bane). Seasonally adjusted CPI-W data revised beginning 1992.
Percent change from
a year earlier, total
private nonagrieulttjral3
Current dollars
1982
Current
dollars
dollar*2
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail
trade
$312.50
322.02
334.24
345.35
353.98
363.61
373.64
385.86
394.68
406.61
392.76
401.93
402.96
402.00
401.51
410.50
403.90
408.33
413.28
408.17
414.85
419.34
411.25
$269.16
266.79
264.22
259.47
255.40
254.99
254.87
256.73
255.29
255.73
'250.33
'255.68
255.36
'253.95
'253.00
'258.50
'253.71
256.17
'258.46
'254.31
257.67
259.81
254.49
$406.31
418.81
429.68
441.86
455.03
469.86
486.04
506.94
514.59
531.65
505.20
519.98
518.31
528.71
530.84
533.79
532.06
537.51
536.68
537.10
539.60
546.00
544.60
$480.44
495.73
513.17
526.01
533.40
537.70
553.63
573.00
585.10
600.23
582.55
604.63
589.79
594.39
581.78
595.98
598.30
599.46
599.46
603.34
604.90
608.00
593.84
$178.70
183.62
188.72
194.40
198.48
205.06
209.95
216.46
221.47
229.82
221.59
226.08
227.73
225.94
228.38
232.00
227.66
230.69
231.49
232.18
235.77
235.54
233.66
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
-1.0
-.9
-1.0
-1.8
-1.6
-.2
-.0
.7
-.6
.2
-2.5
.0
.3
-.3
.6
1.8
-.4
.7
1.4
-.5
.6
1.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.8
3.3
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.3
2.3
3.0
.2
2.7
3.1
2.6
3.6
4.6
2.5
3.5
4.4
2.5
3.9
5.1
5.1
Based on seasonally unadjusted data
NOTE.—Sec Note, p. 14.
Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Lalwr Statistics.
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
Percent change from
Index (June 1989 = 100)
3 months earlier
Period
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
Benefits'
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
12 months earlier
Benefits'
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
3.3
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.1
2.6
3.1
3.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.7
2.6
3.1
2.8
2.8
3.4
Benefits'
Not seasonally adjusted
1987198819891990199119921993199419951996-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
.
..
.
.
.
93.1
97.6
102.3
107.0
111.7
115.6
119.8
123.5
126.7
130.6
94.1
98.0
102.0
106.1
110.0
112.9
116.4
119.7
123.1
127.3
90.5
96.7
102.6
109.4
116.2
122.2
128.3
133.0
135.9
138.6
Seasonally adjusted
1994- Mar
Sept
Dec
1995- Mar
Sept
Dec
1996- Mar
Sept
Dec
...
...
120.8
121.8
122.8
123.5
124.4
125.3
126.1
126.9
127.8
128.8
129.6
130.6
117.2
118.1
119.0
119.7
120.6
121.5
122.4
123.2
124.5
125.6
126.4
127.3
1
Employer costs for employee benefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, tree
from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
130.3
131.5
132.9
133.6
133.8
134.6
135.4
136.1
136.0
136.9
137.8
138.8
0.8
.8
.8
.6
.7
.7
.6
.7
.7
.8
.6
.8
3.4
6.9
6.1
6.6
6.2
5.2
5.0
3.7
2.2
2.0
Not seasonally adjusted
0.6
.8
.8
.6
.8
.7
.7
.7
1.1
.9
.6
.7
1.1
.9
1.1
.5
.1
.6
.6
.6
-.1
.7
.7
.7
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.4
4.4
3.9
4.0
3,7
2.9
2.6
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.7
1.8
2.0
Data exclude farm and household workers.
Source: Department of Ijabor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND
Output per ho«r of ali
persons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1
Output
Business
sector
Nonfarra
business
sector
DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Hours of all
persons*
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Compensation per
hour3
Business
sector
Nonfarra
business
sector
Heal compensation
per hour4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Implicit price
deflator5
Unit labor
eosta
Business
sector
Nonfarra
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
84.7
87.8
89.7
94.2
98.1
100.0
102.1
103.7
106.7
109.7
101.4
102.4
102.4
102.2
103.4
103.5
103.5
104.2
105.6
106.3
106.8
108.1
108.5
109.4
110.3
110.7
83.8
86.8
90.5
94.0
97.7
100.0
102.5
104.7
107.1
108.9
101.7
102.3
102.7
103.3
103.9
104.4
105.1
105.6
106.4
106.9
107.5
107.8
108.2
108.8
109.2
109.5
83.5
86.4
90.0
93.8
97.6
100.0
102.5
104.9
107.2
108.8
101.8
102.4
102.7
103.3
103.9
104.5
105.3
105.7
106.5
107.1
107,5
107.8
108.1
108.7
109.0
109.4
4.0
3.7
2.1
5.0
4.2
1.9
2.1
1.5
2.9
2.9
5.2
4.0
.1
-.7
4.9
.3
.1
2.9
5.3
2.5
1.9
5.2
1.5
3.3
3.3
1.4
2.7
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.9
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.3
1.6
3.5
2.5
1.3
2.4
2.4
1.8
2.7
2.0
3.0
2.2
2.0
1.0
1.5
2.4
1.3
1.1
2.6
3.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.2
1.5
3.8
2.1
1.2
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.9
1.9
3.0
2.0
1.7
.9
1.4
2.1
1.2
1.3
Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996P*
1993- I
II
m
IV
1994- I
n
m
IV
1995. i
n
m
IV
1996- I
n
mr
iv*
94.1
94.6
95.3
96.1
96.7
100.0
100.2
100.7
100.8
101.9
100.2
99.8
100.0
100.9
100.5
100.6
101.1
101.1
100.4
100.8
101.2
101.0
101.5
101.8
101.9
102.5
94.6
95.2
95.7
96.2
96.9
100.0
100.2
100.7
100.9
101.7
100.1
99.7
100.1
100.8
100.3
100.6
101.0
101.1
100.5
100.9
101.3
101.1
101.5
101.7
101.7
102.2
91.1
94.6
97.8
98.7
96.9
100.0
102.7
107.0
109.6
113.0
101.4
102.1
102.8
104.5
104.9
106.7
107.7
108.7
108.8
109.0
110.3
110.4
111.2
112.6
113.2
114.8
91.4
95.1
98.1
98.8
97.1
100.0
102.9
107.0
109.9
113.1
101.6
102.2
103.3
104.7
104.9
106.7
107.8
108.8
109.0
109.2
110.6
110.7
111.4
112.8
113.3
114.9
96.8
100.0
102.5
102.6
100.2
100.0
102.5
106.2
108.8
110.9
101.3
102.3
102.9
103.5
104.4
106.0
106.6
107.6
108.4
108.2
109.0
109.3
109.6
110.6
111.1
112.0
96.5
99.9
102.5
102.7
100.2
100.0
102.8
106.3
108.9
111.2
101.4
102.6
103.2
103.9
104.6
106.1
106.7
107.6
108.4
108.3
109.1
109.5
109.8
110.9
111.4
112.4
79.9
83.5
85.8
90.7
95.1
100.0
102.5
104.5
107.8
111.8
101.7
102.3
102.8
103.3
104.0
104.2
104.7
105.5
106.2
107.3
108.3
109.4
110.3
111.4
112.5
113.5
80.2
83.6
85.9
90.6
95.1
100.0
102.3
104.3
107.7
111.6
101.5
102.0
102.5
103.0
103.8
104.1
104.5
105.4
106.2
107.2
108.2
109.3
110.2
111.3
112.2
113.2
98.7
99.0
97.1
97.4
97.9
100.0
99.5
99.0
99.2
100.0
99.6
99.5
99.6
99.3
99.5
99.0
98.6
98.8
98.8
98.9
99.3
99.8
99.8
99.9
100.2
100.3
99.1
99.2
97.1
97.3
97.9
100.0
99.3
98.8
99.1
99.8
99.5
99.3
99.3
99.0
99.2
98.9
98.4
98.7
98.7
98.8
99.2
99.6
99.7
99.7
99.9
100.0
84.9
88.3
90.0
94.4
98.3
100.0
102.3
103.8
106.9
109.8
101.5
102.6
102.9
102.4
103.6
103.6
103.6
104.4
105.8
106.5
107.0
108.3
108.6
109.4
110.4
110.7
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
igge**
1993- I
n
ffl
IV
1994- I
II
m
IV
1995- I
H
in
IV
1996- I
n
mr
IV*
1
-0.2
.5
.8
.8
.6
3.4
.2
.5
.1
1.0
-3.5
-1.6
.8
3.8
-1.7
.5
1.9
.2
-2.6
1.4
1.4
-.6
2.1
1.2
.3
2.4
-0.3
.6
.5
.5
.7
3.2
.2
.5
.3
.8
-3.8
-1.8
1.7
2.8
-1.8
1.0
1.7
.4
-2.3
1.5
1.8
-1.2
1.9
.6
0
2.2
2.9
3.8
3.4
.9
-1.8
3.2
2.7
4.2
2.5
3.0
-1.2
2.5
3.0
6.5
1.7
6.9
4.1
3.8
.3
.7
4.8
.5
3.0
5.0
2.2
5.8
3.0
4.1
3.2
.7
-1 8
3.0
2.9
4.0
2.7
2.9
-.9
2.7
4.1
5.5
.8
7.0
4.2
4.0
.6
.9
5.0
.3
2.7
4.8
1.9
5.9
3.0
3.3
2.5
.1
-2 3
o
2.5
3.7
2.4
2.0
2.4
4.2
2.2
2.6
3.5
6.4
2.1
3.6
3.0
7
3.3
1.1
.8
3.8
1.9
3.4
3.2
3.5
2.6
.2
25
-.2
2.8
3.5
2.4
2.1
3.0
4.6
2.4
2.6
2.7
6.0
2.4
3.6
2.9
6
3.2
1.5
.8
4.1
1.9
3.7
Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector.
2
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees phis employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for
the self-employed.
* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for aD urban consumers (CPI-U).
5
Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index
16
3.8
4.5
2.8
5.7
4.8
5.2
2.5
1.9
3.1
3.8
1.9
2.6
2.0
2.0
2.8
.7
2.0
2.9
2.8
4.1
3.6
4.3
3.2
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.7
4.3
2.7
5.5
4.9
5.2
2.3
2.1
3.2
3.6
1.3
2.1
1.8
2.0
2.9
1.3
1.8
3.3
2.9
4.0
3.7
4.0
3.4
3.9
3.3
3.6
0.2
.3
-2.0
.3
.6
2.1
-.5
-.6
.3
.8
-1.0
-.3
.1
-1.2
.8
-1.8
-1.7
.7
-.0
.7
1.5
1.9
-.0
.4
1.4
.6
0.1
.1
-2.1
.1
.7
2.1
-.7
-.5
.3
.7
-1.6
-.8
-.1
-1.1
.9
-1.2
-1.9
1.0
.1
.6
1.6
1.6
.2
.1
1.0
.4
4.0
4.0
1.9
4.9
4.2
1.7
2.3
1.4
3.0
2.7
5.6
4.3
1.2
-1.8
4.6
.2
.1
2.8
5.6
2.6
2.1
5.0
1.1
3.1
3.4
1.3
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
* Data based on GDI* data released January 31, 1997. Other data for 1996: IV shown elsewhere in this issue were released February 28, 1997.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production was unchanged in January; capacity utilization fell.
NDEX.1992. 100- (RATIOSCAli)
140
TOTAL INDUSTMAL PRODUCTION
130
INDEX, 1992 -100- (RATIO SCAIE)
150
FINAL PRODUCTS
140
120
130
BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT
yV^~"
no
120
^/
110
miiliimlmnliiiii
innlmimiimi.iiii
100
^:
\
=CC^
GCXXJS
MANUFACTURING
130
90
"""""'N
\,_.—
120
^.^
SO
no
_ NONDURABLE
i illliin ll ll n
100
f-~ •*
%..•
70
iniiluiii
140
UTIUriES AND MINING
1
iiiiiiutii
tttltltmi
miilnm
PERCENT*
130
88
120
'v
DEFENSE
AND SPACE
EQUIPMENT
86
imilTIES
CAPACITY UTIUZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY)
_
84
110
32
S\
p^^
"
^^>
,A^-~~n
^~^-~r^^
80
100 14
78
1997
1993
n 1 1 1 In i M , , , , , 1
1994
1993
Inin
M i M In 1 1 1
1995
1996 ,
IMllllll,
1997
COONOl Of ECONOMIC ADVBBO
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Percent change *
Period
1987
1988 ..
Index,
1992=100
.
1989 ...
1990 ...
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 r
1996
1996: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
Mav
\ •*
July
Auer
Sept
Ocf r
. . .
.
Novr .
Oec .
1997: Janp
1
Percent changes based on unrounded indexes.
3
Output as percent of capacity.
From
preceding
month
117.7
Prom
year
earlier
Manufacturing
Total
Durable
Nondurable
Mining
Utilities
Total
industiy
Manufacturing
4.6
4.4
1.8
-.2
-2.0
3.2
3.4
5.0
3.3
2.7
92.8
97.1
99.0
98.5
96.2
100.0
103.7
109.4
113.2
116.4
92.0
98.1
100.5
99.0
95.5
100.0
105.5
113.4
119.7
125.8
93.8
96.0
97.3
97.9
97.0
100.0
101.7
105.0
106.2
106.3
101.5
102.9
101.5
103.7
101.6
100.0
98.9
101.5
100.9
103.0
89.4
93.9
97.1
98.3
100.4
100.0
103.9
105.3
109.1
112.4
81.3
83.9
84.0
82.3
79.2
80.4
81.6
83.7
83.8
83.1
81.3
83.8
83.6
81.4
78.0
79.5
80.8
83.1
83.1
82.1
-0.4
1.3
,u
.9
.4
.6
.0
.3
.1
.2
.8
.5
.4
1.9
1.4
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.4
2.9
2.6
3.3
3.9
4.3
113.4
114.8
113.9
115.2
115.7
116.4
117.0
117.2
117.4
117.6
118.5
119.4
121.5
123.6
121.8
124.6
125.2
126.3
126.9
127.5
127.2
127.1
128.4
129.2
104.6
105.3
105.4
105.2
105.5
105.9
106.4
106.2
106.9
107.4
108.0
108.9
99.0
100.8
102.8
102.9
103.2
104.4
103.1
104.5
103.4
103.4
103.4
104.9
112.5
113.3
114.4
113.5
114.6
114.0
109.4
110.8
111.1
111.9
113.1
109.8
82.4
83.2
82.6
83.1
83.2
83.5
83.2
83.2
83.1
83.0
83.4
83.5
81.5
82.2
81.3
82.0
82.0
82.3
82.4
82.3
82.1
82.0
82.4
82.7
.0
4.7
119.1
129.1
108.5
104.2
113.0
83.3
82.2
93.1
97.3
99.0
98.9
96.9
100.0
103.4
108.6
112.1
115.2
U2.4
113.8
113.2
114.3
114.8
115.5
115.5
115.8
116.0
116.2
117.1
117.7
Capacity utilization
rate, percenta
Industry production indexes, 1992=100
Total industrial production
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve %stem.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
MANUFACTURES
[1992=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Products
;i
Materials
Final products
Intermediate products
Consumer goods
Equipment
Period
Total
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
1
Total
93.7
96.7
97.7
97.3
97.0
100.0
103.2
107.4
108.9
110.4
93.9
99.8
101.3
98.0
93.0
100.0
110.1
120.4
122.8
126.2
93.6
95.9
96.7
97.1
98.1
100.0
101.5
104.1
105.3
106.5
92.7
99.1
103.0
102.7
98.4
100.0
103.0
106.6
111.6
116.8
Sept
Octr
NoV
Dec'
93.2
97.6
99.7
99.4
97.5
100.0
103.2
107.1
109.9
112.8
109.8
111.7
111.1
112.1
112.2
113.1
113.4
113.0
113.3
113.6
114.7
115.3
108.3
109.9
109.4
109.8
110.0
110.8
110.7
110.1
110.5
110.8
112.1
112.8
121.1
124.7
120.8
125.7
126.9
129.9
129.7
128.0
127.1
124.5
127.1
129.4
105.1
106.2
106.6
105.9
105.8
106.0
106.0
105.6
106.3
107.3
108.3
108.7
1997- Jan' ... .
115.7
112.9
128.0
109.1
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
.
,
1996: Jan
Feb
Mar
.
May
July
1
Business
De- fense
and
• space
equipment
Total
Construction
supplies
Business
supplies
Total
Energy
117.5
117.1
117.4
115.9
106.7
100.0
93.5
86.2
80.7
77.0
100.7
102.5
102.9
101.9
97.5
100.0
102.5
106.1
107.5
109.3
104.7
106.3
105.5
102.9
96.2
100.0
103.3
110.3
111.6
116.7
98.4
100.3
101.3
101.4
98.3
100.0
102.0
103.6
105.0
105.0
90.4
95.1
97.0
97.2
95.9
100.0
103.9
111.3
116.6
120.3
112.4
114.8
113.9
115.9
116.0
117.1
118.1
117.9
118.1
11S.4
119.1
119.6
85.1
93.5
98.8
98.2
95.7
100.0
105.1
111.3
119.4
126.6
122.0
124.6
122.6
125.1
125.0
126.6
128.1
127.7
128.3
128.8
129.9
130.5
74.8
76.4
77.6
77.4
77.9
77.0
77.7
77.9
77.7
77.0
76.2
76.8
106.9
108.1
108.5
107.7
108.9
109.7
108.9
110.0
110.6
110.2
111.5
110.7
110.8
113.3
115.5
114.2
116.1
118.3
117.5
119.2
119.8
117.7
119.5
117.3
104.6
105.0
104.3
103.9
104.6
104.6
103.9
104.6
105.3
105.8
106.8
106.7
117.5
118.5
117.7
119.5
120.1
120.5
120.5
121.5
121.2
121.7
122.2
123.2
96.2
98.5
99.5
100.6
100.8
100.0
99.6
101.4
102.7
163.8
102.5
103.5
104.5
104.2
104.6
104.8
102.4
104.0
103.9
103.9
103.9
103.7
120.5
131.5
75.9
110.2
116.5
106.4
123.0
103.7
Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.
[1992-100; monthly data seasonally adjusted)
Durable manufactures
Primary metsls
Period
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19!J6'
Iron
and
steel
Fabricated
metal
products
Industrial
machinery and
equipment
148.3
151.4
152.5
153.3
154.3
156.1
157.7
159.6
159.4
159.9
161.7
162.9
75.6
82.5
85.8
87.7
89.6
100.0
110.0
126.3
148.2
163.3
155.8
161.0
160.3
161.1
161.8
164.0
163.8
164.6
165.2
165.6
167.1
169.8
163.8
168.3
95.4
107.6
106.2
106.4
96.0
100.0
107.1
113.2
116.3
116.5
101.9
106.1
104.8
101.2
96.2
100.0
104.4
112.0
115.7
118.6
86.0
97.0
103.0
100.1
95.4
100.0
109.9
125.3
141.4
156.4
Sept
Ocf
NoV
Decr
97.8
106.2
104.9
104.0
96.7
100.0
105.5
113.0
115.7
117.1
111.7
114.6
115.6
116.1
116.3
117.0
118.0
118.3
119.5
122.1
117.4
118.5
112.3
113.9
113.8
114.6
115.7
117.1
118.0
118.2
117.4
123.2
117.1
117.3
116.7
117.9
117.6
117.8
118.4
118.9
119.1
119.4
119.3
119.3
119.5
119.4
1997: Jan?
117.6
116.7
118.9
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
18
Electrical
machinery
Nondurable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Total
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
104.9
105.1
104.3
101.6
94.5
100.0
100.9
105.9
106.2
109.8
105.5
103.6
100.3
97.2
97.8
100.0"
102.4
106.5
103.3
98.2
102.5
103.4
103.5
103.1
99.1
100.0
100.8
100.5
99.8
98.5
87.0
92.2
95.1
97.3
96.4
100.0
101.0
104.1
106.5
108.8
93.5
94.9
95.9
97.0
98.4
100.0
102.1
103.7
105.7
106.4
103.3
104.4
94.9
106.4
106.8
107.1
109.5
109.3
107.3
105.3
109.6
110.5
94.9
100.2
101.2
95.3
88.5
100.0
113.7
129.7
128.5
127.1
127.6
127.4
106.8
130.3
130.5
130.4
134.1
132.8
127.0
121.2
128.8
129.3
105.3
106.3
109.7
110.3
110.4
112.4
109.3
111.4
110.7
109.2
112.8
109.7
96.8
99.2
98.1
99.0
99.0
99.0
98.3
98.5
98.2
97.8
97.5
97.4
98.2
99.2
97.6
96.9
97.9
97.1
97.6
97.9
99.1
99.7
100.3
100.1
106.8
107.0
106.6
106.9
107.2
107.9
109.0
108.7
109.7
111.3
111.7
113.1
104.8
105.7
106.2
105.9
105.6
106.1
106.5
105.5
106.2
107.1
107.6
108.9
112.0
131.5
109.0
96.6
99.3
113.2
109.2
96.1
101.1
105.1
102.3
96.5
100.0
103.7
107.4
105.0
106.2
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts3
Private
Period
Residential
Total new
construction
expenditures
Total
New housing
units
Total"
and industrial2
Other
and
State
and
local
Total value
index
(1992=100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
BOjUare feet)
Billions of dollars
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
441.6
455.6
469.8
468.5
424.2
452.1
482.7
527.1
547.1
568.6
351.0
360.9
371.6
361.1
314.1
336.2
362.6
400.0
410.2
427.4
194.7
198.1
196.6
182.9
157.8
187.8
210.5
238.9
236.6
246.5
1996- Jan
559.0
544.6
557.0
564.6
558.5
563.1
559.3
564.7
572.3
580.0
592.6
587.4
418.9
411.2
419.7
424.2
418.1
423.1
419.3
426.7
428.4
433.9
444.7
443.4
242.5
238.6
245.9
248.0
247.5
246.9
244.9
246.0
246.4
244.3
248.1
248.6
589.8
445.7
249.7
104.4
109.6
118.0
119.4
93.7
82.2
84.4
93.3
107.0
111.4
169.2
166.9
173.8
179.3
178.2
177.7
175.6
176.5
176.2
176.2
177.2
176.3
176.6
139.9
138.9
139.2
128.0
110.6
129.6
144.1
167.9
162.9
176.4
62.6
66.2
67.7
67.8
66.6
69.5
'103
'104
'108
'98
'92
'100
'108
'117
'122
'129
109.3
107.4
106.4
108.1
103.1
109.2
107.7
110.9
112.4
119.4
121.6
117.2
67.1
65.2
67.4
68.2
67.5
67.0
66.7
69.7
69.6
70.2
75.0
77.5
140.1
133.3
137.3
140.4
140.4
140.0
140.0
138.0
143.9
146.1
147.9
144.0
'124
'118
'131
'134
'133
'131
'134
'137
'132
'125
128
122
'708
'657
'726
'713
'839
'715
'638
'705
'778
'681
775
783
121.4
74.6
144.1
120
781
58;s
Annual rates
Feb
Mar
July
Sept
Get
Nov . ..
Dec'
1997: Jan*7
1
Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
2
Includes hotels and motels.
3
P.W. Dodge series.
1,019
973
961
783
577
556
589
744
862
829
90.6
94.7
98.2
107.5
110.1
115.8
120.2
127.1
136.9
141.3
52.0
53.2
57.1
Annual rates
Note.—Commercial and industrial floor space series revised to reflect updated seasonal adjustment factors.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and The McGraw-Hill Companies,
Inc., P.W. Dodge Division.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private housing units
Period
Total
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
New private homes
Units started, by type of structure
1 unit
2-4 units
5 or more
units
65.3
58.8
55.2
37.5
35.6
30.7
29.4
35.0
33.7
45.2
1,620.5
1,488.1
1,376.1
1,192.7
1,013.9
1,199.7
1,287.6
1,457.0
1,354.1
1,474.7
1,146.4
1,081.3
1,003.3
894.8
840.4
1,029.9
1,125.7
1,198.4
1,076.2
1,159.8
1,444
1,520
1,429
1,522
1,476
1,488
1,492
1,515
1,470
1,407
1,486
1,323
1,138
1,188
1,156
1,215
1,142
1,214
1,164
1,222
1,148
1,104
1,133
1,005
22
35
24
55
48
46
44
37
45
58
60
50
284
297
249
252
286
228
284
256
277
245
293
268
1,350
1,108
39
203
408.7
348.0
317.6
260.4
137.9
139.0
132.6
223.5
244.1
269.6
authorized
1,534.8
1,455.6
1,338.4
1,110.8
948.8
1,094.9
1,199.1
3
1,371.6
1,332.5
1,433.7
Units
completed
Homes
sold
Homes for
sale at end
of period i
1,668.8
1,529.8
1,422.8
1,308.0
1,090.8
1,157.5
1,192.7
1,346.9
1,312.6
1,412.1
671
676
650
534
509
610
666
670
667
758
293
'336
'370
322
1,378
1,417
1,423
1,459
1,452
1,415
1,457
1,423
1,399
1,362
1,418
1,422
1,427
1,329
1,382
1,351
1,409
1,426
1,463
1,449
1,356
1,375
1,431
1,469
727
778
711
741
732
732
782
814
768
706
797
801
370
354
367
368
362
355
352
343
331
330
327
322
1,400
1,324
870
314
366
368
365
321
284
265;
for rental
housing units
(percent)2
7.7
7.7
27.4
7.2
7.4
7.4
2
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.8
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1996: Janr
Feb'
Mar'
May'
July'
Aug'
Sept'
Oct.'
Nov
Dee'
1997: Janr
1
Seasonally adjusted,
Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993
data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.
3
The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing places is 1,333.7 thousand units.
2
7.9
7.8
8.0
7.7
NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. Por other data shown, units
authorized are for 17,000 places.
Seasonally adjusted housing starts, housing completions, and homes sold and for sale revised
beginning 1994.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In December, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.2 percent and Inventories fell $1.7 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.6 percent in January following a rise of 0.3 percent in December.
BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATO SCAIE)
400
BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
1,200
1,100
350
1,000
300
900
800
RETAIL INVENTORIES
250
700
.MANUFACTURING
AND TRADE SALES
600
\
200
RETAIL SALES
I
i ill M n 111
ll
500
150
RATIO*
400
1.80
300
1.50
1.40
200 I
Im
1993
111M
1 1 1 1 1 II M 1 t 1 1 1 1
1994
1995
l l II 1
M 111 1M 11
1996
1.30
1997
* SEASONAUY ADJUSTED
SOUKE aautlMENT Of COMMERCE
COJNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufacturing and
trade1
Period
Sales2
Inventories3
Retail
Wholesale
Sales2
Inventories3
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade'
47,989
80,453 207,836 105,481 102,355
85,587
219,047 112,453 106,594
52,430
115,887
91,818 237,234 121,347
54,763
239,773 121,105 118,668
55,736
97,981
243,275
119,039 124,236
54,165 100,497
129,046
251,994
122,948
58,634 103,999
133,967
267,916 133,949
64,795 108,129
290,602
150,441 140,161
73,042 112,894
78,018 117,050 '302,856 '160,481 '142,375
146,715
168,241
'83,944 '121,485 314,956
1.50
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.53
1.48
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.40
1.55
1.54
1.58
1.55
1.54
1.52
1.51
1.50
1.54
1.51
142,375
143,054
143,249
142,494
142,907
142,774
142,703
144,772
144,644
144,855
145,527
146,082
146,715
1.42
1.44
1.42
1.42
1.41
1.39
1.40
1.39
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.52
1.53
1.50
1.48
1.49
1.48
1.49
1.51
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.51
1.52
Durable
goods
stores
Total
Inventory-sales
ratio4
Inventories3
Sales2
Nondurable goods
stores
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19961"
457,735 709,846
497,157
767,226
527,039 815,486
545,909 840,428
542,815
834,281
567,176
842,137
595,240 874,515
637,561
931,702
679,700 '990,163
715,272 1,009,183
1995: Dec'
1996- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov'
Dee**
1997- Jan'
1
695,569
•-690,825
699,208
700,253
709,541
715,130
711,760
719,176
717,532
722,691
725,787
728,804
727,619
990,163
995,352
996,008
994,010
998,430
996,984
997,322
1,002,404
1,005,435
1,006,430
1,011,261
1,010,916
1,009,183
128,442
122,968 163,903
134,521 178,801 138,017
146,581
143,760
187,009
149,506
195,550 153,718
148,306
200,062 154,661
154,150 207,663 162,632
172,924
161,681 215,878
172,973 234,893 185,936
187,387 '254,963 195,068
199,889
256,335 '205,429
194,839
192,878
194,053
195,379
197,507
198,258
198,543
202,057
200,086
201,404
202,790
203,932
204,339
254,963 199,446
256,258 '199,262
255,569 203,392
256,444 204,228
259,592 204,031
258,834 205,669
259,262 204,366
259,100 204,719
258,822 204,599
256,959 206,127
257,770 207,487
257,929 207,324
256,335 '207,869
209,052
See page 21 for manufacturing.
2
Annual data arc averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally a<Uusted totals for month.
20
118,574
80,872
'80,599 '118,663
83,285 120,107
120,120
84,108
82,794 121,237
84,053 121,616
120,894
83,472
83,539 121,180
121,063
83,536
84,189
121,938
84,881 122,606
84,604 122,720
'84,815 '123,054
85,437
3
302,856
304,370
304,824
302,153
303,397
303,930
304,192
308,858
310,926
312,771
315,357
313,616
314,956
160,481
161,316
161,575
159,659
160,490
161,156
161,489
164,086
166,282
167,916
169,830
167,534
168,241
123,615
Seasonally atljusted, end of period.
4
Annual data are averages of seasonally atljusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of tlie Onsus.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS. INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In December, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders fell; unfilled orders rose slightly. In January,
according to advance estimates, durable goods shipments and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS- (RATIO SCALE)
BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
320 - SHIPMENTS -
480 — INVENTOI<IES
440
400
~
360
280
240
TOTAL
r-T~"~~~
\
320
200
280
DURABLE GOODS
\
160
OM»«B^^^»~~
—
_..
240
200
"L
"V"
\
DURABLEGOOD5
1AO
NONDURABLE GOODS
1
"\
NONDURABLE OCXDOS
120
80
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
320 - NEW ORDERS
80
1 M 1 1 ll 1 1 M
1 1f 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
M 1 H 11 1 1 11
1 1M 1 1M 1 11
1 1 1 III
1t H 1
280
240
RATIO *
2.00
200
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1.80
160
1.60
120
NONDURABLE GOODS
^x-»~—^pv^._^
"-V.
1.40
K20
1993
1994
1995
1996
iiml
1 M 1 I1 1 H 11
1997
1 1 1 H 1 it 1 1 1 immiiii
1 M t 111 1 1 11
1993
1994
1996
1995
1997
COUNCB. OF ECONOMIC ADVB81S
Manufacturers' shipments l
Manufacturers' inventories2
Manufacturers' new orders *
Durable goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Nondurable
goods
26,094
31,108
32,988
33,331
30,471
31,525
31,693
35,847
41,302
44,770
47,586
46,163
44,555
46,613
40,487
44,979
42,921
45,935
41,172
47,515
47,482
43,885
43,741
45,817
98,579
106,194
113,516
118,924
118,957
121,905
124,617
130,055
137,877
143,750
138,635
139,796
139,502
139,572
143,529
143,907
142,145
144,902
144,308
144,704
146,987
148,356
146,937
Manufacturers'
uniilled
orders2
Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio3
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1995- Dec
1996: Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec' .
1997: Janf
206,326
224,619
236,698
242,686
239,847
250,394
260,635
278,652
297,244
309,954
301,284
298,685
301,763
300,646
308,003
311,203
308,851
312,400
312,847
315,160
315,510
317,548
315,411
108,128
118,458
123,158
123,776
121,000
128,489
135,886
148,916
159,215
166,339
161,976
159,125
161,918
160,377
164,615
167,487
166,902
167,774
168,471
170,705
168,824
170,144
168,656
170,696
98,198
106,161
113,540
118,910
118,847
121,905
124,749
129,736
138,029
143,615
139,308
139,560
139,845
140,269
143,388
143,716
141,949
144,626
144,376
144,455
146,686
147,404
146,755
338,107
369,378
391,243
405,105
390,944
382,480
390,721
406,207
432,344
437,892
432,344
434,724
435,615
435,413
435,441
434,220
433,868
434,446
435,687
436,700
438,134
439,371
437,892
220,778
242,450
257.513
263,213
250,006
238,096
243,476
254,798
270,356
276,417
270,356
272,657
273,400
273,535
273,870
273,857
273,649
274,807
275,926
276,347
277,328
277,917
276,417
1
Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2
Seasonally adjusted, end of period.
117,329
126,928
133,730
141,892
140,938
144,384
147,245
151,409
161,988
161,475
161,988
162,067
162,215
161,878
161,571
160,363
160,219
159,639
159,761
160,353
160,806
161,454
161,475
3
209,389
228,270
239,572
244,507
238,805
248,212
257,698
279,560
298,092
312,818
306,155
307,151
302,648
305,091
307,001
314,194
312,139
317,304
310,575
318,515
321,887
320,244
315,703
110,809
122,076
126,055
125,583
119,849
126,308
133,081
149,505
160,214
169,068
167,520
167,355
163,146
165,519
163,472
170,287
169,994
172,402
166,267
173,811
174,900
171,888
168,766
174,811
430,468
474,192
508,853
531,115
519,143
493,104
458,161
469,450
480,128
514,553
480,128
488,594
489,479
493,924
492,922
495,913
499,201
504,105
501,833
505,188
511,565
514,261
514,553
1.59
1.58
1.63
1.65
1.65
1.54
1.49
1.43
1.43
1.41
1.44
1.46
1.44
1.45
1.41
1.40
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.39
1.38
1.39
Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
The producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.3 percent in January. Prices of finished consumer foods
fell 1.0 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Capital equipment prices were
also unchanged. (Seasonally adjusted data revised.)
INDEX, 1982-100 (RATIO SCAIE)
INDEX, 1 982 - 100 (RATIO SCAIE)
150
150
FINISHED GOODS PRICES
SEASCNAUY ADJUST*
'
CAPTIAL EQUIPMENIT
r'"^
_^ — •
CONSUMER FOODS
\
/
'^>>
120
/
r
f
"'
*
iifc_
-^*^
^\
\
^.^
' "'
.
"~
"*
"•*"
\
.*"
/
TOTAL / .s'
"•-j^^'
s-.'-'^~
^*'~"v
120
CONSUMER GOODS
EXCLUDING FIOODS
•'
110
"
-. — —
.
-
- ^^ r^.. — -•
'
1
y
t
110
\s
_
100
1 1 1 1111 1 1 11
t 1 M 11 1 1 1 11
1 1 t 1i f 1 t 1 M
1990
1989
M 1M 11 M 11
1991
i i i i I 1 I I I Ii t
1 1 1111i 11t
1993
1992
I I I I 1 1 > I I Ii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1995
1994
1 1 1 M 11 1 1 11
1996
SOJBCE; Dt PAYMENT Of WK*
1997
COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Finished goods
Intermediate materials
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996P
1996: Jan'
Feb'
Mar' ....
Aprr
May ....
June' ...
Julyr ....
Aug ....
Sepf ....
Ocf
Nov ....
Decr
1997: Jan
ConTotal
finished sumer
goods
foods
105.4
108.0
113.6
119.2
121.7
123.2
124.7
125.5
127.9
131.3
129.7
129.7
130.4
130.6
130.8
131.2
131.2
131.6
132.0
132.3
132.6
133.4
133.0
109.5
112.6
118.7
124.4
124.1
123.3
125.7
126.8
129.0
133.5
131.1
130.8
131.9
131.5
131.7
133.6
133.7
134.6
135.1
136.0
136.0
135.9
134.5
Consumer goods
Total
104.0
106.5
111.8
117.4
120.9
123.1
124.4
125.1
127.5
130.5
129.3
129.2
129.8
130.3
130.4
130.3
130.4
130.6
131.0
131.1
131.5
132.5
132.5
Total
100.7
103.1
108.9
115.3
118.7
120.8
121.7
121.6
124.0
127.6
125.9
125.9
126.7
127.3
127.5
127.3
127.4
127.7
128.1
128.4
129.0
130.3
130.3
1
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing ami fceds.
NOTE.-—Beginning 1996, indexes are based on updated value weighty.
22
Durable
111.5
113.8
117.6
120.4
123.9
125.7
128.0
130.9
132.7
134.2
133.7
133.8
134.0
133.9
134.2
134.5
134.2
134.4
134.8
134.2
134.4
134.5
134.4
Nondurable
94.9
97.3
103.8
111.5
115.0
117.3
117.6
116.2
118.8
123.2
121.1
121.0
122.0
123.0
123.1
122.8
123.0
123.3
123.7
124.4
125.1
126.9
126.9
Capital
equipment
111.7
114.3
118.8
122.9
126.7
129.1
131.4
134.1
136.7
138.3
138.0
138.0
138.1
138.1
138.1
138.3
138.3
138.5
138.7
138.3
138.4
138.6
138.6
Total
finished
consumer
103.6
106.2
112.1
118.2
120.5
121.7
123.0
123.3
125.6
129.5
127.6
127.5
128.4
128.7
128.9
129.4
129.4
129.9
130.3
130.8
131.2
132.1
131.7
Total
Foods
and
feeds'
101.5
99.2
107.1 109.5
112.0 113.8
114.5 113.3
114/1 111.1
114.7 110.7
116.2 112.7
118.5 114.8
124.9 114.8
125.7
125.5
125.0
125.2
125.6
126.1
125.7
125.5
125.7
126.2
126.0
126.1
126.5
126.7
128.4
123.3
123.1
123.3
125.6
130.4
131.3
131.8
132.2
133.2
130.5
127.8
127.6
126.6
Crude materials
Other
Total
101.7
106.9
111.9
114.5
114.6
114.9
116.4
118.7
125.5
125.6
93.7
96.0
103.1
108.9
101.2
100.4
102.4
101.8
125.7
125.2
125.3
125.6
125.9
125.5
125.2
125.4
125.8
125.8
126.0
126.5
126.7
Seasonally adjiMbMJ data rcvisM] beginning119.92.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of I^abor Statistics.
102.7
113.5
109.0
111.1
109.8
114.2
115.4
112.6
115.1
115.8
112.8
111.9
113.8
119.4
125.6
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
96.2
106.1
111.2
113.1
105.5
105.1
108.4
106.5
105.8
121.5
115.4
115.4
115.8
119.8
126.7
127.6
129.8
129.0
124.5
120.5
117.8
114.6
113.4
Other
87.9
85.5
93.4
101.5
94.6
93.5
94.7
94.8
96.8
104.0
100.9
104.3
101.8
106.4
103.7
98.5
101.1
102.8
100.9
102.2
107.0
118.2
129.2
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.3
percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.0 percent above its year-earlier level. (Seasonally adjusted
data revised.)
INDEX, 1982-84 . 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
SEASONMLY ADJUSTED
170
170
160
160
150
140
130
120
120
110
110
I 1 1 1 1 i i i 11
100
1990
1991
1992
1994
1993
1 1 1 1 1 n1111
11(11 h i t 1 1 100
1994
1995
1997
COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVESB
[1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All items1
Housing
Transportation
New
cars
Medical
Motor care
fuel
Energy2
AM
items
less
food
and
energy
4.0
114.6
116.9
119.2
121.0
125.3
128.4
131.5
136.0
139.0
141.4
140.0
140.3
140.7
140.8
140.9
141.4
141.7
142.0
142.7
142.4
142.1
142.2
141.9
3.2
80.2
80.9
88.5
101.2
99.4
99.0
98.0
98.5
100.0
106.3
101.5
101.6
104.4
109.3
110.2
106.5
106.0
105.0
104.9
106.6
108.4
111.1
111.8
7.3
130.1
138.6
149.3
162.8
177.0
190.1
201.4
211.0
220.5
228.2
225.3
225.9
226.4
227.0
227.7
228.3
228.9
229.3
229.9
230.4
231.0
231.5
231.9
7.0
88.6
89.3
94.3
102.1
102.5
103.0
104.2
104.6
105.2
110.1
106.3
106.8
107.9
111.1
111.4
109.2
109.5
109.3
109.5
110.7
112.0
113.7
114.6
77.0
118.2
123.4
129.0
135.5
142.1
147.3
152.2
156.5
161.2
165.6
163.8
164.2
164.6
164.9
165.3
165.6
166.0
166.2
166.7
167.0
167.4
167.7
167.9
Shelter
Not
season- Seasonally
ally
adjust- adjusted
ed
(NSA)
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Jan'
Feb1Mar'
Aprr
July'
Sepf
Octr
Decr
1997: Jan
1
_
300.0
113.6
118.3
124.0
1307
1362
1403
1445
1482
1524
1569
154 .4
154.9
155.7
156.3
156.6
156.7
157.0
157.3
157.8
158.3
158.6
158.6
159.1
Food
15.9
113.5
118.2
125.1
132.4
136.3
137.9
140.9
144.3
148.4
153.3
154.7 150.5
155.1 150.9
155.6 151.5
156.1 151.8
156.5 152.1
156.7 153.1
157.1 153.8
157.4 154.4
157.9 155.1
158.3 155.8
158.8 156.4
159.2 156.4
159.4 156.0
Total'
Total
412
114.2
118.5
123.0
128.5
133.6
137.5
141.2
144.8
148.5
152.8
150.8
151.1
151.4
151.8
152.2
152.3
152.9
153.2
153.5
153.9
154.4
154.7
155.2
Renters'
costs
(Dee.
1982=
100)
28.2
121.3
127.1
132.8
140.0
146.3
151.2
155.7
160.5
165.7
171.0
168.5
168.9
169.3
169.7
170.1
170.4
171.2
171.4
171.7
172.2
172.6
172.9
173.4
Includes items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gaa (piped), electricity, ftiel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc, excluded beginning 1983.
3
Relative importance, December 1996.
2
ao
128.1
133.6
138.9
146.7
155.6
160.9
165.0
169.4
174.3
180.2
176.6
177.1
177.6
178.0
178.4
178.9
180.0
180.1
180.5
181.1
181.5
181.7
182.8
Home- Main- Fuel
teownand
nance other
ers'
and
costs
utilire^
(Dec.
ties
1982= pairs
100) (NSA)
20.0
124.8
131.1
137.3
144.6
150.2
155.3
160.2
165.5
171.0
176.5
174.3
174.7
175.1
175.4
175.9
176.2
176.8
177.1
177.4
177.8
178.3
178.6
179.0
0.2
111.8
114.7
118.0
122.2
126.3
128.6
130.6
130.8
135.0
139.0
136.3
137.0
137.5
138.0
138.8
138.8
139.4
139.7
139.9
140.2
141.1
141.5
141.5
7.1
103.0
104.4
107.8
111.6
115.3
117.8
121.3
122.8
123.7
127.5
125.1
125.6
125.9
126.7
127.1
126.8
127.4
128.0
128.4
129.0
129.6
130.3
131.2
Apparel
and
1
up- Total
keep
S.3
110.6
115.4
118.6
124.1
128.7
131.9
133.7
133.4
132.0
131.7
132.7
131.9
132.5
132.2
132.1
131.7
131.5
130.3
131.0
131.3
131.7
131.8
132.3
17.1
105.4
108.7
114.1
120.5
123.8
126.5
130.4
134.3
139.1
143.0
140.2
140.9
141.7
143.1
143.6
143.1
143.1
143.1
143.8
144.3
144.8
145.7
145.4
NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for bomeownership costs (beginning
1983).
Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1992.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period? monthly data seasonally adjusted, except aa noted by NSAJ
Period
Change from preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Total
finished
goods .
Total
finished
goods
eqnipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Total
ISxchiding
foods
Foods
equipment
finished
goods
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Change
from year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
2.2
4.0
4.9
5.7
-.1
1.6
.2
1.7
2.3
2.8
1996*
4.1
3.1
5.3
8.7
-.7
1.6
-1.4
2.0
2.3
3.7
— 02
5.7
5.2
2.6
-1.5
1.6
2.4
1.1
1.9
3.4
1.3
3.6
3.8
3.4
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
.5
2.1
2.5
5.2
4.9
2.1
1.2
1.2
.6
1.9
2.7
Change, month to month
1996: Jan'
Feb'
Mar'
Apr1"
May
Augr
Sept'
Oct'
Nov
Dec'
1997' Jan
0.1
0
.5
.2
.2
.3
0
.3
.3
.2
.2
.6
-0.2
-.3
-1.0
0.3
0
.6
.5
.2
— 2
O
.8
-.3
.2
1.4
.1
.7
.4
.7
0
-.1
.1
.2
.3
.2
.5
1.0
0
0
0
.1
0
0
.1
0
.1
.1
-.3
.1
.1
3.8
2.8
2.5
2.8
3.4
2.5
1.9
2.5
2.5
3.4
3.1
4.3
4.1
-1.2
1.5
1.2
2.8
5.3
6.9
9.1
4.6
7.1
4.2
2.4
5.2
5.9
3.9
4.5
5.2
1.9
.3
.6
2.5
3.2
4.1
7.0
1.2
-.3
.3
.3
.3
.6
.6
1.2
1.2
0
-.3
-.3
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.5
2.3
3.0
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.4
4.1
3.6
3.1
2.6
.8
3.4
4.0
5.9
4.9
7.0
6.6
3.5
2.8
2.9
4.2
4.9
5.6
2.9
2.4
2.9
2.2
1.7
2.4
4.8
.7
0
.4
.4
.7
.9
.3
.4
.4
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
0
2.1
-4.3
6.1
.9
2.8
1.2
4.6
.4
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.6
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
NOTE.—See Note, p. 22.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except aa noted by NSA}
Transportation
Housing
Shelter
Period
All
items1
Food
Total1
1
Total
Bentera'
costs
Homeownera'
coats
and
other
utilities
Apparel
and
1
upkeep Total
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food
and
energy
Addendum: All items,
percent change
(annual rate)
From
previous
'quarter3
From From
From
6
year
3
months months earlier
NSA
earlier earlier
Change, December to December, NSA
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
4.4
4.4
4.6
6.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.5
3.3
3.5
5.2
5.6
5.3
1.9
1.5
2.9
2.9
2.1
4.3
3.7
4.0
3.9
4.5
3.4
2.6
2.7
2.2
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.5
4.9
5.2
3.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.9
3.9
4.5
6.7
4.2
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.0
3.4
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.7
3.7
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.7
2.8
1.6
2.9
3.2
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
.2
1.4
4.6
4.8
4.7
1.0
5.1
3.4
1.4
.9
-1.6
.1
-.2
6.1
3.0
4.0
10.4
-1.5
3.0
2.4
3.8
1.5
4.4
1.8
2.1
2.3
1.4
3.3
2.3
2.8
3.2
1.6
1.6
18.7
-2.1
6.8
36.5
-16.0
1.8
-5.4
5.9
-4.0
12.7
5.8
6.9
8.5
9.6
7.9
6.6
5.4
4.9
3.9
3.0
8.2
.5
5.1
18.1
-7.4
2.0
-1.4
2.2
-1.3
8.6
4.2
4.7
4.4
5.2
4.4
3.3
3.2
2.6
3.0
2.6
0.1
.2
.3
.1
.1
.4
.2
.2
.5
-.2
-.2
.1
3.0
-.1
2.8
4.7
.8
-3.4
-.5
-.9
-.1
1.6
1.7
2.5
0.3
.3
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
1.7
.5
1.0
3.0
.3
-2.0
.3
-.2
.2
1.1
1.2
1.5
0.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.1
.3
.2
.2
.2
-.2
.6
.2
.8
.1
3.6
4.1
4.8
5.4
4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.0
Change, month to month
1996: Jan'
Febr
Mar'
.Apr'
May
Augr
Sept'
Get'
Dee'
1997- Jan
1
Includes
3
0.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.3
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
0.3
.3
.4
.2
.2
.7
.5
.4
.5
.5
A
0
0.3
.2
.2
.3
.3
.1
.4
.2
.2
.3
.3
.2
0.3
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.5
.1
.2
.3
.2
.2
0.5
.3
.3
.2
.2
.3
.6
.1
.2
.3
.2
.1
0.2
.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.3
.2
.2
.2
.3
.2
0.4
.4
.2
.6
.3
-.2
.5
.5
.3
.5
.5
.5
0.5
— 6
.5
-.2
-.3
-.2
-.9
.5
.2
.3
.1
0.6
.5
.6
1.0
.3
-.3
0
0
.5
.3
.3
.6
-.3
.3
.3
.6
.2
.7
.4
-.2
items not shown separately.
Household ftiels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc.,
excluded beginning 1983.
3
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
24
_ -1
NOTE.—See Note, p. 23.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3~i
3~4
2"i
3.3
2.6
3.4
4.0
3.7
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.3
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
In February, prices received by farmers fefl 2.8 percent and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are
not seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCAIE)
120
100
120
DATH-.
120
^
s^Xl
t
-
"^
^
"—I-"" —
/
60
100
—>—••.
•+*****
^-
1
~"
1
80
-
"«•
"
80
-
-
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1 II M 1 1 M 1 1
19)19
19«fl
1 1 1 1 1 !1 1 I I I
1 1 1 1 1 11 1 111
1991
1995
1 1 1 I1! 1 i 1 1f
1 1 1 1111 1 1 11
IOC'S
1QQ4
i i i 1 E 1 I I I I IM
199.5
1M 1! 1 M 1
1OQA
J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVH> TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
60
i i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(1990-92=100; net seasonally adjusted]
Prices received by farmers
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
.
1996: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June . . .
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan ... .
Feb
1
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
Crops
All commodities,
services, interest,
taxes, and1wage
rates
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Production
items
Ratio2
89
99
104
104
100
98
101
100
102
112
86
104
109
103
101
101
102
105
112
127
91
93
100
105
99
97
100
95
92
99
87
91
96
99
100
101
104
106
110
115
87
92
97
99
100
101
102
106
109
114
87
90
95
99
100
101
103
106
109
114
102
108
108
105
99
97
98
94
93
98
106
109
108
111
118
119
117
116
112
111
110
123
129
128
131
140
136
133
125
119
118
116
93
93
93
96
99
103
103
106
103
102
103
113
114
114
115
115
115
115
115
115
115
115
113
114
114
114
114
114
114
114
114
113
113
113
114
114
115
115
116
116
116
114
114
114
94
96
95
97
103
103
102
101
97
97
96
108
105
'116
113
'98
98
116
116
115
115
115
115
93
91
Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,
taxes, and wage rates.
2
Prices paid by farmers
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth In M2 and in M3 slowed in January. (Series revised.)
BltUONS Of DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)
5,200
__.
BIUJONS OF DOtlARS* (RATIO SCAtE)
5,200
__,.— •-—
4,400
4,400
4000
M3
3£QQ
3600
^\
M2
-^<C
Ml
x-^
800
600
.Ml
i ! ! 1 1 1 1 H IIi
1989
—-——
—- --^
800
i M 1 111 1n 1 t 11 1 ) i i 1t 1 t 111 1 1 i i t a
1990
1992
1991
t i i 11 1 1 1 1 11
1994
1993
t H i ) i 1 i t t Ii
1995
\ 1 1 i ! i n i f i i t n 1 n M 600
i
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACMSQB
[Averages of daily fig-tires, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Ml
Period
1987:
198819891990:
1991:
1992:
1993:
1994:
1995:
19961996:
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec' .
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Jan'
Feb'
Mar'
July
A«gr
Sept'
Ocf
Nov'
Dec'
1997: Jail
1
..
M3
M2
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers* cheeks,
and other
checkable deposits (OCDs)
Ml phis retail
MMMF balances,
savings deposits
(including
MMDAs), and
small time deposits
749.7
787.0
794.2
825.8
897.3
1,025.0
1,129.8
1,150.7
1,129.0
1,080.9
1,122.2
1,119.8
1,126.2
1,123.5
1,117.1
1,115.5
1,108.8
1,099.8
1,093.2
1,080.1
1,079.9
1,080.9
2,832.7
2,996.3
3,160.9
3,279.5
3,379.6
3,434.0
3,486.6
3,502.1
3,655.0
3,833.0
3,669.9
3,685.0
3,713.9
3,724.5
3,725.6
3,741.9
3,750.0
3,762.8
3,775.4
3,787.8
3,809.3
3,833.0
1.079.6
3.849.7
M2 phis large
time deposits,
BPs, Eurodollars, and
institutiononly MMMF
balances
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, Slate and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
a
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at a simple annual rate.
26
3,672.5
3,912.9
4,065.9
4,125.9
4,180.4
4,190.4
4,254.4
4,328.7
4,594.8
4,935.2
4,622.3
4,655.2
4,692.1
4,708.7
4,731.2
4,753.5
4,771.5
4,791.4
4,822.5
4,859.8
4,890.1
4,935.2
4.965.6
I.
Debt
M3plus
other liquid
assets
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average of
adjacent
month-end
levels)'
4,341.5
4,666.2
4,894.6
4,977.5
5,006.4
5,078.9
5,169.3
5,312.4
5,704.2
r 6,071.9
5,722.3
5,737.8
5,791.8
5,827.1
5,833.9
5,865.6
5,888.6
5,921.4
5,964.8
5,987.4
6,030.9
r 6,071.9
8,664.1
9,441.6
10,171.6
10,852.6
11,337.1
11,880.7
12,506.5
13,148.4
13,866.9
;> 14,611.4
13,916.6
13,987.3
14,063.2
14,129.5
14,186.6
14,246.1
14,317.5
14,378.3
14,426.4
14,484.9
14,553.1
* 14,611.4
Percent change from year
or 6
months earlier2
Ml
M2
M3
3.5
5.0
.9
4.0
8.7
14.2
10.2
1.8
-1.9
-4.3
-4.0
-4.2
-2.7
-2.1
-2.8
-2.4
-2.4
-3.6
-5.9
-7.7
-6.7
-6.2
4.8
4.5
5.2
5.2
4.7
4.8
4.4
4.2
3.3
3;4
4.5
4.9
5.3
6.5
3.9
1.5
1.3
.2
1.5
1.7
6.1
7.4
5.7
5.7
6.2
62
6.6
6.9
6.5
5.9
5.6
6.4
6.7
7.6
-5.3
5.3
8.1
3.6
5.8
5.5
3.8
3.1
1.6
1.5
.4
4.4
4.9
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Series revised to reflect annual benchmarking and seasonal adjustment revisions.
Sourc«; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Debt
9.6
9.0
7.7
6.7
4.5
4.8
5.3
5.1
5.5
5.4
4.4
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.5
5.8
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.1
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Currency
Period
Demand
deposits
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
Large
denomination
time deposits3
Overnight
and
term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)
(net)
Overnight
and
term
Eurodollars
(net)
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Savings
bonds
937.4
926.3
893.7
923.8
1,045.0
1,187.3
1,219.2
1,149.6
1,137.1
1,270.8
921.0
1,037.1
1,151.4
1,172.8
1,065.4
868.3
782.6
817.5
933.7
944.7
467.0
518.3
541.5
480.9
416.5
353.4
333.4
363.1
419.8
499.8
172.6
189.0
158.0
138.8
119.5
128.6
158.6
182.9
182.1
192.5
108.2
117.0
95.2
88.7
79.3
67.0
66.4
82.1
91.0
110.6 f
345.9
340.3
337.3
333.9
323.5
316.4
308.7
300.4
292.2
283.1
276.7
274.5
250.1
259.7
263.7
263.4
263.6
269.7
274.0
278.8
285.2
288.1
292.0
299.3
1,153.8
1,165.1
1,180.2
1,190.1
1,195.6
1,204.1
1,211.0
1,222.7
1,231.5
1,246.3
1,258.8
1,270.8
934.3
934.1
930.8
929.5
928.4
928.8
930.5
934.2
937.5
941.0
943.5
944.7
420.9
426.3
432.5
435.4
442.5
448.9
455.2
459.3
466.8
481.6
487.9
499.8
187.2
188.9
188.0
188.9
202.7
195.3
194.4
192.0
193.9
195.6
194.7
192.5
94.2 185.0
466.0
95.4 185.0
445.0
94.0 185.2
459.6
96.5 185.6
461.4
97.0 186.0
432.6
97.8 186.4
443.4
97.9 186.8
445.8
98.4 187.2
452.9
101.2
187.3
461.1
106.6
187.3
449.3
106.3 187.1
459.9
110.6 r 187.0 P 445.6
272.1
542.4
296.3
1,282.2
945.5
510.6
195.2
113.8
286.8
286.8
279.3
277.4
289.6
339.5
385.2
384.1
391.1
402.6
259.5
280.9
285.3
293.9
332.5
384.*
414.5
403.8
356.5
274.5
1996' Jan'
Feb'
Mar'
Apr'
May'
373.0
373.4
375.4
376.4
377.7
379.9
382.8
385.2
387.6
390.2
392.5
395.2
394.4
397.3
404.5
404.5
407.1
410.6
408.7
405.8
404.9
398.3
402.2
402.6
397.0
401.9
1997- Jan
Small
denomination
time
deposits3
92.0
92.3
110.3
138.0
185.5
207.5
209.5
198.5
246.9
299.3
196.8
212.3
222.7
246.8
267.3
292.9
322.2
354.4
372.6
395.2
July'
Aug' . .
Sept'
Oct' .
Nov'
Dec'
Retail1
Savings
deposits,
including
money
market
Instideposit
tution accounts
only2
(MMDAs)
224.6
245.9
321.7
357.1
371.9
353.5
354.9
384.3
455.2
536.6
459.6
466.0
476.8
481.4
484.5
493.6
499.6
506.1
513.2
520.5
527.1
536.6
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
Dec'
1987198819891990'
199119921993'
199419951996-
Money market
mutual fund
balances
1
Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000.
Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more.
3
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less
than #100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
2
Bankers'
acceptances
100.6 249.5
44.5
109.4 266.8
40.2
117.5
324.0
40.7
126.0
334.2
36.1
137.9
329.1
23.9
156.6
345.9
20.9
171.5
342.8
14.9
180.3
386.9
14.2
184.8
475.5
12.0
187.0 ' 445.6 J-12.0
11.8
10.3
9.8
10.3
10.8
11.4
11.4
11.3
11.5
11.6
11.9
/>12.0
Commercial
paper
274.4
336.9
346.5
355.3
335.2
365.0
385.6
402.4
437.1
P 492.1
437.2
442.3
445.1
461.0
473.4
470.9
473.1
478.6
482.4
479.5
481.9
f 492.1
NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not
shown here.
S** Note, p. 26.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
1987198819891990199119921993:
1994:
1995:
1996:
1996-
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct .
Nov ....
Dec
1997- Jan*
1
. .
„
38,866
40,410
40,508
41,780
45,547
54,367
60,519
59,364
56,364
50,167
55,606
54,848
55,727
55,182
54,227
54,112
53,197
52,269
51,351
50,135
49,875
50,167
38,089
38,694
40,242
41,455
45,355
54,243
60,437
59,156
56,106
50,012
55,568
54,813
55,706
55,091
54,100
53,726
52,829
51,935
50,983
49,848
49,661
50,012
49,403
49,358
Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures.
Nonborrowed
Nonborrowed
plus
extended
credit
Required
Monetary
base
Total
Seasonal
Extended
credit
38,572
39,938
40,262
41,478
45,356
54,244
60,437
59,156
56,106
50,012
55,568
54,813
55,706
55,091
54,100
53,726
52,829
51,935
50,983
49,848
49,661
50,012
37,820
39,362
39,585
40,116
44,569
53,212
59,456
58,196
55,086
48,743
54,121
53,997
54,590
54,062
53,368
52,962
52,132
51,308
50,313
49,142
48,840
48,743
239,784
256,920
267,723
293,332
317,502
351,244
386,877
418,723
'435,008
'452,920
'434,449
'433,557
'436,855
'436,984
'437,885
'439,692
'442,244
'444,160
'445,988
'447,124
'449,466
'452,920
777
1,716
265
326
192
124
82
209
257
155
38
35
21
91
127
386
368
334
368
287
214
155
93
130
84
76
38
18
31
100
40
68
7
7
10
34
105
192
284
309
306
212
109
68
483
1,244
20
23
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
49,358
48,180
454,049
45
19
0
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
27
BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.8 percent in January; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.5
percent. (Series revised.)
BltUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
3,600 - ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
3,200
4,000
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
800
800
400
400
OTHER SECURITIES
200
200
1 1 1 1 1 1 r i 1 1 1 160
1997
11111111111
160
1989
1990
1992
1991
1994
1993
1995
1996
COUNCll OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted1]
Loans and leases in bank credit
Securities in bank credit
Total
bank
credit
Period
1988198919901991:
1992:
1993:
199419951996:
1996:
Decr
Decr ...
Dec' ...
Decr
Dec'
Dec'
Decr
Dec1"
Decr
Jan'
Febrr
Mar
Aprrr
May r
June . ,,,...,
July
Augr
Sepf
Ocf ....
NoV
Decr
1997: Jan
1
562.2
585.1
634.9
745.8
843.0
917.6
951.9
998.6
992.6
TJ.S.
Total loans CommerGovernOther
and
cial and
ment
securities
leases2
industrial
securities
367.4
194.9
401.0 '- 184.2
457.0
177.9
566.1
179.7
666.2
176.8
732.7
184.9
730.6
221.2
709.5
289.1
707.4
285.2
1,873.2
2,024.0
2,119.7
2,113.2
2,115.5
2,200.7
2,380.6
2,613.8
2,778.9
3,628.4
989.9
3,645.6 1,000.1
3,643.5
988.5
990.4
3,667.6
3,664.7
990.9
3,671.4
982.1
3,682.5
982.1
3,674.5
972.1
3,693.1
968.9
3,719.5
970.3
3,744.0
982.1
3,771.4
992.6
702.1
710.9
703.3
707.8
711.6
707.5
707.7
702.2
703.4
703.9
707.9
707.4
287.8
289.2
285.2
282.6
279.3
274.5
274.5
269.9
265.5
266.5
274.2
285.2
3,806.9
706.3
299.7
2,638.4
2,645.5
2,655.0
2,677.2
2,673.7
2,689.3
2,700.3
2,702.4
2,724.3
2,749.2
2,761.9
2,778.9
2,801.0
2,435.4
2,609.1
2,754.6
2,859.1
: . 2,958.5
3,118.3
3,332.5
3,612.4
3,771.4
;
Total
securities
1,006.0
Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment
companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. -Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassificationa of assets and liabilities.
28
607.6
638.8
641.1
619.6
596.2
586.6
646.1
717.3
787.1
721.8
724.2
724.9
732.1
735.1
738.9
744.7
746.9
761.0
770.7
776.4
787.1
791.0
2
Real estate
Total
Revolving
home
equity
Consumer
Securny
Other
Other
676.0
771.2
857.3
881.6
902.5
942.6
1,004.6
1,079.6
1,125.8
40.0
50.2
62.2
69.6
73.4
73.0
75.3
79.1
85.3
636.0
721.0
795.0
812.1
829.1
869.5
929.3
1,000.5
1,040.5
356.3
376.7
382.1
365.4
357.9
390.1
451.2
492.8
519.1
40.7
41.5
45.4
55.4
65.6
90.3
79.1
85.6
79.0
192.6
195.7
193.9
191.3
193.3
191.3
199.7
238.5
267.9
1,086.0
1,090.9
1,096.1
1,100.1
1,103.2
1,105.6
1,105.2
1,109.4
1,112.2
1,115.9
1,120.6
1,125.8
1,131.7
79.4
79.7
79.7
80.1
79.7
79.2
79.9
80.5
81.2
83.2
84.2
85.3
1,006.5
1,011.2
1,016.4
1,020.0
1,023.4
1,026.4
1,025.3
1,028.9
1,030.9
1,032.7
1,036.5
1,040.5
1,045.9
497.5
497.4
500.8
504.7
502.7
506.9
510.7
512.8
515.8
518.2
518.9
519.1
88.1
87.6
85.3
85.0
77.3
79.8
78.1
72.3
73.8
76.6
77.4
79.0
245.1
245.4
247.9
255.3
255.5
258.0
261.6
261.0
261.5
267.7
268.6
267.9
521.1
82.7
274.5
85.8
Excludes Federal fdnds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to
commercial banks in the United States,
Note.—Series revised to reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Total
Credit market funds
Internal1
Total
Total
Total
533.4
648.4
851.9
744.3
592.6
489.3
599.9
698.1
758.9
882.0
754.7
910.0
906.4
956.9
995.1
838.6
1,010.5
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1995- I
II
m
IV
1996- I
n
mp
343.4
374.5
408.2
396.9
409.1
422.2
438.6
480.2
524.9
543.8
517.7
527.5
559.1
571.0
578.4
585.7
592.9
190.0
273.9
443.7
347.4
183.5
67.1
161.3.
217.9
234.0
338.2
237.0
382.5
347.3
385.9
416.7
252.9
417.6
Securities
and mortgages
Loans and
short-term
paper
58.9
29.1
-.2
-35.9
-26.6
75.9
67.1
84.3
-34.0
6.0
-10.8
44.5
386
28.6
-30.5
79.6
-34.4
92.4
44.1
95.7
94.9
73.6
-110.7
-6.0
-16.5
110.8
125.3
181.2
152.5
86.3
81.5
85.1
62.8
151.9
151.3
73.2
95.5
59.0
47.0
-34.8
61.1
67.8
76.8
131.3
170.4
197.0
47.7
110.1
54.6
142.4
117.5
1
Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends phis consumption of fixed
capita], foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fond liabilities, and direct foreign investment
in the U.S.
Other 2
38.7
200.8
348.1
288.4
136.5
101.9
100.1
150.1
157.3
206.8
66.6
185.5
299.7
275.8
362.2
110.5
300.1
Capital
expenditures3
519.4
592.0
756.2
632.9
509.8
500.7
554.4
787.9
761.7
889.0
726.4
916.8
881.6
1,031.1
973.4
928.2
980.6
347.3
357.4
373.3
399.4
394.5
370.9
386.9
430.6
483.6
546.6
552.9
534.1
572.9
526.5
523.4
534.7
579.8
Increase in
financial
assets
Discrepancy
(sources
less
uses)
172.1
234.6
382.9
233.5
115.3
129.8
167.5
357.3
278.1
342.4
173.5
382.7
308.7
504.6
450.0
393.5
400.8
14.0
56.5
95.7
111.4
82.9
-11.4
45.6
-89.8
-2.9
-7.0
28.4
-6.8
24.8
-74.4
21.7
-89.6
29.8
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights from
U.S. Government
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.
CONSUMER CREDIT
[Billions of dollars; seasonally Mjusted)
Net change in consumer credit outstanding1
Consumer credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total
19871988198919901991199219931994199519961996-
Dec
Dec3
Dec . ..
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
DecP
Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
July'
Aug'
Sept'
Oct'
NoV"
Dec^
671.7
729.9
781.9
796.4
781.1
784.9
844.1
966.5
1,103.3
1,195.4
••1,111.1
'1,122.1
'1,133.3
'1,141.8
'1,148.3
1,155.1
1,169.1
1,177.5
1,178.6
1,185.4
1,190.5
1,195.4
Automobile
Revolving
266.1
285.5
291.0
282.4
259.3
257.1
279.8
317.2
350.8
377.3
352.9
355.8
358.6
361.2
362.3
367.7
373.6
373.5
374.5
376.8
376.7
377.3
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month.
2
Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc., phis noninstallment credit.
153.3
174.5
198.6
223.3
245.8
257.8
287.0
339.3
413.9
462.8
419.0
425.7
431.3
437.9
443.5
445.4
451.0
454.3
453.7
456.4
460.4
462.8
2
Other
252.4
269.9
292.3
290.7
276.1
269.9
277.3
309.9
338.6
355.3
'339.1
'340.6
'343.4
'342.8
'345.2
341.9
344.5
349.7
350.4
352.3
353.5
355.3
Total
32.8
58.2
(4)
14.5
-15.3
3.8
59.2
122.4
136.8
92.1
'7.8
'11.0
'11.2
'8.5
'6.5
6.8
14.0
8.4
1.1
6.8
5.1
4.9
Automobile
18.9
19.4
(*)
-8.6
-23.1
-2.2
22.7
37.4
33.6
26.5
2.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
1.1
5.4
5.9
-.1
1.0
2.3
-.1
.6
Revolving
17.3
21.2
(4)
24.7
22.5
12.0
29.2
52.3
74.6
48.9
5.1
6.7
5.6
6.6
5.6
1.9
5.6
3.3
-.6
2.7
4.0
2.4
Other2
-3.3
17.5
(*)
-1.6
-14.6
-6.2
7.4
32.6
28.7
16.7
'.5
'1.5
'2.8
•"-.6
'-.3
-.6
2.6
5.2
.7
1.9
1.2
1.8
3
Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December
1988 and subsequent months.
4
Because of breaks in series, net change not available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
INTEREST BATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rotes fell in February.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
14
14
\
^^^\
CORPORATE Aaa BONOS
(MOODY'S)
•v
~V
[-•— x
y
_/
/
N
'•— - ''""':.
'^
V *
•^ N
/
J
n
"N
/
v
/
\ j, ">
TREASURY , —•—...
BIOS /
->r
1
J
/r
~r\ DISC DUNT
R/> TE
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK
1 11 I II| | | ( I IiII1 IIIII I
L I I I t 1 1 t 1 11
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1993
,,,,,1
1995
ln,M
illlllllll^
1996
1997
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: SEE IABU BEICW
[Percent per annum)
U.S. Treasniy secority yields
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Peb .
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997- Jan
Feb
Week ended:
1997: Peb 8
15
22
Mar 1
1
3-month
bills (new isi sues1)
2
Constant maturities
3-year
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard
& Poor's) *
30
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months '
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.B.
Bank)'
Prime rate
charged 4by
banks
5.82
6.69
8.12
7.51
5.42
3.45
3.02
4.29
5.51
5.02
4.87
4.96
4.99
5.02
5.11
5.17
5.09
5.15
5.01
5.03
4.87
5.05
5.00
7.68
8.26
8.55
8.26
6.82
5.30
4.44
6.27
6.25
5.99
5.14
5.79
6.11
6.27
6.49
6.45
6.21
6.41
6.08
5.82
5.91
6.16
6.03
8.39
8.85
8.49
8.55
7.86
7.01
5.87
7.09
6.57
6.44
5.81
6.27
6.51
6.74
6.91
6.87
6.64
6.83
6.53
6.20
6.30
6.58
6.42
7.73
7.76
7.24
7.25
6.89
6.41
5.63
6.19
5.95
5.75
5.45
5.82
5.93
5.98
6.03
5.91
5.72
5.86
5.71
5.59
5.62
5.72
5.63
9.38
9.71
9.26
9.32
8.77
8.14
7.22
7.97
7.59
7.37
6.99
7.35
7.50
7.62
7.71
7.65
7.46
7.66
7.39
7.10
7.20
7.42
7.31
6.85
7.68
8.80
7.95
5.85
3.80
3.30
4.93
5.93
5.42
4.99
5.26
5.38
5.42
5.57
5.67
5.51
5.66
5.45
5.40
5.44
5.48
5.42
5.66
6.20
6.93
6.98
5.45
3.25
3.00
3.60
5.21
5.02
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.21
9.32
10.87
10.01
8.46
6.25
6.00
7.15
8.83
8.27
8.50-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
5.00
5.02
4.98
5.01
6.03
5.99
5.96
6.15
6.46
6.37
6.33
6.50
5.68
5.62
5.57
5.66
7.34
7.26
7.23
7.38
5.44
5.41
5.39
5.43
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
5.00-5.00
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
8.25-8.25
Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues artiste! to constant maturities by the Treasury
Department
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures,
4
Average effective rate Tor year; opening and dosing rate for month and week.
2
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Mood/s)
New-home
mortgage
yields
(PHFB)5
9.31
9.19
10.13
10.05
9.32
8.24
7.20
7.49
7.87
7.80
7.20
7.49
7.76
7.80
8.05
8.01
8.08
7.98
7.95
7.80
7.79
7.81
5
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and
charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Federal Housing Finance ftoanl, Moody*s Inventors Service, and Standard & Poor's
Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in February.
INDEX, DEC. 31,1965-50 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, DEC. 31,1945-50 (RATIO SOME)
/
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
ft
/
/I/
/
*—s^S
/^
/
260
240
^-*<^~^
220
y^if^/\ /
180
V
^/
160
200
140 \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \
1989
\\\\\
\\\\\
^\—~X~~-N<
\
r-^>x—-Sr
aDMPOS1TE STOCK PRICE INDEX
s—s—-1
220
(NYS1=)
200
180
160
1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1
1 11t 1 111 M
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 11
M ! ! 1 1 Ht ' '
1 1 M 1 1 1 1111
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1990
1 1 1 1 1 11 111
1996
1MU fill)
1997
PERCENT
PERCENT
20
20
15
15
EARNNGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STjOOS
10
10
5
5
0
i
i i
1989
_l
I
l
L.
1990
I
I
I
1991
I
I
I
1992
I
_|
1_
1994
1993
1
1_
_l
1995
I
L.
-1
1996
Common stock prices *
New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec.
31, 1965=50,
except as noted)2
Composite
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996- Feb
Mar
May
Juhr
Sept
Oct
NOT
Dec
1997: Jan
Feb
Week ended:
1997' Feb 8
15
22
Mar 1
..
Industrial
Transportation
0
3
Utility
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial4
average
Standard &
Poor's composite index
(194143=10)5
Common stock 6yields
(percent)
Dividendprice ratio
161.70
149.91
180.02
183.46
206.33
229.01
249.58
254.12
291.15
358.17
346.46
346.73
347.50
354.84
358.32
345.52
354.59
360.96
373.54
388.75
391.61
403.58
418.57
195.31
180.95
216.23
225.78
258.14
284.62
299.99
315.25
367.34
453.98
435.92
439.56
441.99
452.63
458.30
438.58
449.41
459.69
473.98
490.60
494.38
509.64
524.30
140.39
134.12
175.28
158.62
173.99
201.09
242.49
247.29
269.41
327.33
315.29
324.76
326.42
334.66
331.57
316.66
321.61
323.12
332.93
348.32
352.28
359.40
364.15
148.59
143.53
174.87
181.20
185.32
198.91
228.90
209.06
220.30
249.77
257.80
245.77
244.87
249.73
247.20
.245.31
244.74
242.25
249.61
258.85
257.09
263.91
271.36
146.48
127.26
151.88
133 .26
150.82
179.26
216.42
209.73
238.45
303.89
290.97
290.45
287.92
290.43
294.42
287.89
302.95
308.16
324.42
345.30
350.01
361.45
388.75
2,275.99
2,060.82
2,508.91
2,678.94
2,929.33
3,284.29
3,522.06
3,793.77
4,493.76
5,742.89
5,518.73
5,612.24
5,579.86
5,616.71
5,671.51
5,496.26
5,685.50
5,804.01
5,996.21
6,318.36
6,435.87
6,707.03
6,917.48
286.83
265.79
322.84
334.59
376.18
415.74
451.41
460.33
541.64
670.83
649.54
647.07
647.17
661.23
668.50
644.07
662.68
674.88
701.46
735.67
743.25
766.22
798.39
3.08
3.64
3.45
3.61
3.24
2.99
2.78
2.82
2.56
2.19
2.22
2.22
2.24
2.21
2.21
2.28
2.22
2.20
2.11
2.01
2.01
1.95
1.89
411.65
418.84
423.69
421.11
517.03
524.19
529.85
527.23
364.25
363.27
364.92
364.31
267.41
272.95
273.71
271.83
377.62
389.26
396.87
392.87
6,803.08
6,927.54
6,986.65
6,966.48
784.80
799.62
808.34
802.79
1.93
1.88
1.86
1.88
1
Average of daily closing prices.
"Includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.
3 Dec. 31, 1965-100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility
index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. AD indexes shown here reflect
the doubling.
4
Includes 30 stocks.
'Includes 500 stocks.
1_
COJHO. Of ECONOMIC AIWSBiS
SOURCES: NEVMOIK STOCK EXCHANGE AMI SIAMWiD & POOR'S CORPORATION
Period
I
1997
Earningsprice ratio
5.48
8.01
7.42
6.47
4.79
4.22
4.46
5.83
6.09
5.27
5.21
5.25
=::::::::
•Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday dosing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones k Company, Inc.* and Standard t Poor's
Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1997, there was a deficit of $46.0 billion, compared with a deficit of $36.3 billion
a year earlier.
BILLO•JS OF DOLLARS
1/00
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS -"
1,600
BIIHONSOFCXDLLARS
1700
1,600
_ . j /
1,500
_---""""*"
1,500
1,400
1,400
1,300
1,300
^^
** *"
1,200
^^^"^
-.--""
1,100
1,200
^-—-*"*"'
1,100
1,000
1,000
900
900
800
800
700 A
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
K 700
N
V
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT ( J ^
0
0
-100
^____^,—-"
"
-200
•— ^_
^—-——'
^~-~
-300
-400 /I
V
1
1988
1
1989
'
-200
-^——^~^—-^~^^
1
1990
-100
.
1
1991
1
1992
1
1993
-300
1-
1994
1995
1
1996
^ INCUDES ct+-BUDGer AND OR^BUDGET ITCMS.
SOUIiCKDB»lm*B^Of^«TCASlWA^CC«1CEOfMANAGtMe^T>^^IDBUDCET
1
1997
K -400
^
Council OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total
Fiscal year or period
Receipts
Outlays
On-budget
Surplus
or
deficit
Receipts
Outlays
(-)
1978
1979
1980
1981 ..
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 .
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1997 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 4
months: J
Fiscal year 1996 ...
Fiscal year 1997 ...
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
'734.2
'769.3
'854.4
'909.3
'991.2
'1,032.0
'1,055.0
'1,091.3
'1,154.4
'1,258.6
'1,351.8
1,453.1
1,505.4
458.7
504.0
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
'851.9
'946.5
'990.5
'1,004.2
'1,064.5
'1,143.7
'1,253.2
'1,324.4
'1,381.7
'1,409.4
'1,461.7
'1,515.7
1,560.3
1,631.0
467.1
496.7
503.4
542.7
-59.2
407
rjq a
f O.O
-79.0
- 128.0
-207.8
-185.4
-212.3
-221.2
- 149.8
- 155.2
-152.5
-221.2
-269.4
-290.4
'-255.0
-203.1
-163.9
-107.3
-125.6
-36.3
-46.0
314.2
365.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
'548.0
'569.0
'641.0
'667.8
'727.5
'750.3
'761.2
'788.9
'842.5
'923.6
'1,000.8
1,085.6
1,116.5
357.1
377.0
1
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget oftte United States Government, fiscal Year
1998, issued February 6, 1997.
32
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
369.1
-54.9
404.1
-38.7
476.6
-72.7
543.1
-74.0
594.4 -120.1
661.3 -208.0
'686.1 -185.7
'769.7 -221.7
'807.0 -238.0
'810.3 -169.3
'861.8 -194.0
'932.8 -205.2
'1,028.1 -277.8
1,082.7 -321.6
1,129.3 -340.5
'1,142.8 '-300.4
'1,182.4 -258.8
'1,227.1 -226.3
1,259.9 -174.3
1,316.0 -199.5
413.7
450.6
Federal debt (end of
period)
Off-budget
-56.6
-73.6
Receipts
Outlays
85.4
98.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
263.7
281.7
293.9
302.4
311.9
335.0
351.1
367.5
388.9
89.7
100.0
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
225.1
241.7
252.3
266.6
279.4
288.7
300.5
315.0
110.0
119.7
89.7
92.1
Surplus
or
deficit
(-)
Gross
Federal
Held by
the public
607.1
-4.3
776.6
640.3
-2.0
829.5
709.8
909.1
-1.1
-5.0
785.3
994.8
-7.9
1,137.3
919.8
.2 1,371.7 1,131.6
.3 1,564.7 1,300.5
9.4 1,817.5 1,499.9
16.7 2,120.6 1,736.7
19.6 2,346.1 1,888.7
38.8 2,601.3 2,050.8
52.8 2,868.0 2,189.9
56.6 3,206.6 2,410.7
52.2 3,598.5 2,688.1
50.1 4,002.1 2,998.8
45.3 4,351.4 3,247.5
55.7 4,643.7 3,432.1
62.4 '4,921.0 '3,603.4
67.0 5,181.9 3,733.0
73.9 5,453.7 3,875.8
20.3
27.6
4,937.7
5,271.3
Sources: Department of the Treasnry and Office of Management and Budget.
3,631.9
3,764.9
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY .SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1997, receipts were $29.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $39.3
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
/oo
BILUONS OF DOLLARS
_.
RECEIPTS^
500
—
400
HI
•===-
1
1
I
I
,
I
-'
500
\
,
400
SOCIAL INSURANCE
1 AXES AND CON IkiBUIKJNi
CORPORATION
INCOME TAXES
C
0
700
OTHER-RECEIPTS
300
,
^
(
1x400
1,400
CXJTIAYS-"
1,300
1,200
1,100
^^
~~~~~~~
——
_—""""'****
500
300
200
300
X|
1
1988
I
I
1989
1990
I
I
1991
1992
>NOUDESt>4*JDGETANDOFHUDGErnEMS.
5OUBKD6WnMB«OFTWlTiaWUIflrANDa^
1
1993
1
1994
t
1995
1
200
K
1997 ^
1996
RSCALYEARS
GOUNOL OF ECONOMIC AEMSBtS
[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays
On-budget and off-budget receipts
Fiscal year or period
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996 '
1997 (estimates)
.,
.. ..
Cumulative total, first 4 months: x
Fiscal year 1996
Fiscal year 1997
Individ-
Total
ual income
taxes
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
••734.2
'769.3
'854.4
' 909.3
'991.2
••1,032.0
••1,055.0
••1,091.3
-1,154.4
••1,258.6
•-1,351.8
1,453.1
1,505.4
334.5
349.0
392.6
401.2
445.7
466.9
467.8
476.0
509.7
543.1
590.2
656.4
672.7
467.1 230.7
496.7 246.5
Corpora-
tion
income
taxes
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
Social
insurance
taxes
Otter
121.0
138.9
15T.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
150.3
165.5
Total
37.7
40.8
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
303.6
299.3
273.3
298.4
291.1
281.6
272.1
265.7
267.2
7.5
7.5
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
9.6
13.8
15.9
16.1
17.2
17.1
16.4
13.5
14.8
84.8
92.4
80.5
88.0
4.2
7.7
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
'73.1 '946.5
'73.3 : '990.5
'74.6 '1,004.2
'79.3 '1,064.5
'82.8 '1,143.7
'91.5 '1,253.2
'93.1 '1,324.4
'101.4 1,381.7
'98.9 '1,409.4
'113.7 '1,461.7
'120.1 '1,515.7
115.4 1,560.3
120.8 1,631.0
503.4
542.7
39.1
37.7
InterDepart- national
ment of
Defense, affaire
military
102.3
113.6
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
294.9
289.8
262.4
286.9
278.6
268.6
'259.4
253.2
254.3
458.7
504.0
590.9
678.2
745.8
808.4
'851.9
*Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.
NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year
ISSS, issued February 6, 19ST.
Total
and
contributions
61.3 265.2
63.1 283.9
83.9 303.3
94.5 334.3
103.3 359.4
93.5 380.0
98.1 396.0
100.3 413.7
117.5 428.3
140.4 461.5
157.0 484.5
171.8 509.4
176.2 535.8
47.1
47.0
National defense
104.5
1163
Medicare
Ineome
security
.Social
security
22.8
26.5
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
61.5
66.4
'86.6
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
93.9
104.1
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
33.5
65.8
70.2
35.9
40.0
75.1
44,5 78.9
48.4
85.0
57.7
98.1
71.2 104.5
89.5 119.0
99.4 130.6
107.1 144.7
'115.4 159.9
119.4 174.2
127.6 194.3
128.2
119.8
123.3
'129.4
'136.1
'147.1
'170.3
'197.0
207.3
'214.1
'220.5
226.0
238.9
69.4
74.7
'Health
18.5
20.5
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
37.2
41.8
55.6
64.0
Net
inter-
Other
est
188.6
198.8
207.4
219.3
232.5
248.6
269.0
287.6
304.6
319.6
335.8
349.7
367.7
35.5
42.6
52.5
68.8
85.0
89.8
111.1
129.5
136.0
138.7
151.8
169.3
184.2
194.5
199.4
198.8
203.0
232.2
241.1
247.4
'131.9
'142.3
'126.1
'139.7
'159.3
'204.3
'225.7
'174.7
'160.4
'174.5
,'163.4
170.7
173.2
113.2
118.7
80.3
82.7
58.8
60.6
114.7
120.2
'131.3
133.5
125.4
'122.2
118.6
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1996, Federal receipts rose $6.3 billion (annual rate) and Federal current expenditures rose
$0.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $21.0 billion;
receipts data are incomplete.
RILUONS Of DOLLARS
BltUONS OF DOOMS
1,800
1,800
5EASONAUY ADJUSTS) A»«Wa HOES
---1,600
1,600
•
^-~
— S~
/—"
_-•"
1,400
1,400
CURRENT EXPENDITURES
/"
,.-"> f
-^/~
1,200
—.
r--'
-
.
^ — **
1,000
s^
-*
-
--"*
•
J.200
^
^-
1,000
-
RECEIPTS
800
800
i
•
i
^
'
^^
-
600
600
-
400
400
200
200
-
C JRRENTS JRPUISOR DEFICIT -I
_|
0
~\.
-200
i i i
-400
1982
«*--*
—-—x •N
i i i
1983
I 1 1
1984
1 I l
1985
—-_,/"
s—
\
0
^_
~^-.
.
^
•**-
^ ^v,
I'M 1
1 1 1
1
1986
1987
1988
1
1
i l l
1989
i i I
1990
1 1 1
1991
^~
-200
*-
^~^
"
—
I II
1992
i i I
1993
i i i
1994
SOURCE CBWnMBJT OF CQMMSCS
i i i
1995
i i i
1996
-400
COUNO. Of ECONOMIC
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally actfusted annual rates]
Federal Government current expenditures
Federal Government receipts
Corporate
profits
tax accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Contributions
for
, social
insurance
Total
1,129.8
1,149.0
1,198.5
1,275.3
1,377.0
1,478.4
485.7
476.9
490.8
523.6
561.4
614.9
673.2
118.0
109.8
118.6
137.5
164.4
184.3
65.1
79.7
81.9
88.2
92.6
91.2
90.5
461.1
482.6
507.1
526.0
558.6
588.0
. 615.2
1,284.5
1,345.0
1,479.4
1,530.9
1,567.3
1,640.1
1,701.7
1,160.9
1,230.5
1,225.2
1,271.3
1,280.3
1,324.4
479.0
510.0
501.0
521.0
529.1
543.4
111.1
123.7
127.5
136.5
133.7
152.2
82.8
86.5
84.3
87.5
87.2
93.7
488.1
510.3
512.4
526.2
530.3
535.1
1,399.8
1,509.5
1,509.7
1,521.5
1,534.7
1,557.7
1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
539.3
571.3
560.4
574.5
594.6
624.4
617.3
623.3
144.3
162.2
171.3
180.0
92.8
9i:3
93.3
93.2
545.5
558.1
562.1
568.6
1,534.6
1,552.5
1,575.7
1,606.4
183.1
180.7
189.1
184.3
91.7
93.5
88.4
91.3
579.9
• 584.6
591.8
595.9
1,621.9
1,644.3
1,645.0
1,649.3
446.7
445.1
455.7
455.3
454.6
455:6
453.6
451.4
196.4
199.0
196.5
84.4
83.2
85.7
108.7
602.6
612.0
619.4
626.8
1,678.3
1,702.3
1,702.6
1,723.6
453.6
463.5
461.3
456.8
Period
Total
Calendar yean
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996'
1991: IV
1992- IV
1993: I
II
HI
IV
1994- I
..
..
n
in
IV
1995- I
if
m
IV . ..
1996- I
n
mr
IV
•
.
.
1,449.3
1,48312
1,486.6
1,494.7
1,523.1
1,575.6
1,581.9
639.6
681.4
680.2
691.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Consumption
expenditures
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
426.6
445.9
451.0
451.9
450.7
453.8
458.8
440.5
457.7
451.3
448.5
453.5
454.3
Transfer
pay,ments
513.3
522.2
625.1
659.1
682.9
719.9
764.1
Grantsin-aid
to
Net
State interest
and
paid
local
govern-1
ments
Subsidies less
current
surplus
of
Government
enterprises
Less:
Wage
accruals less
disbursements
Current
surplus
or
deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
132.4
153.4
172.2
185.7
195.9
206.1
214.6
162.7
176.3
179.9
192.7
195.8
192.3
201.4
229.1
233.3
200.0
191.8
32.4
30.8
35.1
41.8
36.4
31.3
30.9
30.9
40.3
0.1
.0
.0
-238.8
-279.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-154.7
-196.0
-280.9
-255.6
-190.2
-161.7
565.8
643.3
645.9
654.7
660.8
675.0
670.9
676.4
683.5
700.9
177.3
181.5
187.2
197,0
190.5
193.2
192.7
192.8
44.7
43.6
40.5
38.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
-233.3
192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9
188.3
198.3
204.3
214.8
36.5
35.3
35.2
38.5
.0
.0
.0
.0
-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1
708.3
716.2
724.2
730.9
205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3
32.3
32.0
31.1
29.9
207.6
219.3
214.5
216.8
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5
756.2
757.9
762.9
779.6
220.9
229.3
232.3
233.9
230.5
230.8
233.7
238.3
30.4
30.8
30.3
32.1
-155.2
-126.7
-120.8
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial production (1992=100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
United
States
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996i>
. .
1995- Dec
1996- Jan
Fdj
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct .
Nov
Dec
1997: Jan*
J
Japan
Canada
93.1
97.3
99.0
98.9
96.9
100.0
103.4
108.6
112.1
'115.2
112.8
115.2
112.4
113.8
113.2
114.3
114.8
115.5
115.5
115.8
116.0
'116.2
'117.1
117.7
115.9
116.0
'115.5
'116.1
'116.3
'116.8
'118.6
'118.8
'119.0
'119.2
'120.5
119.2
101.6
106.9
106.8
103.2
98.9
100.0
104.5
111.8
115.6
117.7
117.7
France
86.4
94.5
99.9
104.2
106.1
100.0
95.8
97.0
100.2
102.9
101.9
93.0
97.3
100.9
102.4
101.1
100.0
96.2
99.8
101.4
101.0
102.3
104.4
98.1
101.2
103.5
99.3
103.7
101.5
102.8
106.8
104.9
105.4
110.6
100.7
100.9
101.6
101.1
101.9
101.3
103.8
103.8
102.3
101.5
102.1
Germany
Consumer prices (1982-84-100; NSA)
United
Kingdom
Italy
86.4
89.8
94.0
98.9
101.7
100.0
92.5
95.3
'96.5
96.5
95.9
95.9
94.3
96.0
95.5
96.3
96.9
'97.6
'97.6
'96.6
'96.2
97.5
98.2
92.4
97.9
100.9
101.1
100.2
100.0
97.6
102.6
108.2
106.4
Data relate to all urban consumers.
United
States'
Germany
United
Kingdom
Canada
Japan
France
104.9
106.3
109.2
112.2
116.2
120.9
125.2
128.6
130.8
132.6
131.4
134.4
141.1
150.4
159.5
169.8
178.8
186.3
193.6
204.0
212.0
208.7
119.7
125.6
135.4
148.2
156.9
162.7
165.3
169.3
175.2
179.4
177.1
131.5
132.2
132.2
132.3
132.6
132.8
133.2
133.1
133.0
133.0
132.9
133.2
209.0
209.6
210.2
211.4
212.2
212.7
212.2
212.4
213.1
213.3
213.9
214.1
133.9
214.5
176.5
177.3
178.0
179.3
179.6
179.8
179.1
179.9
180.7
180.7
180.8
181.4
181.4
112.6
97.4
102.1
104.3
104.0
100.1
100.0
102.2
107.3
110.1
111.3
111.0
113.6
118.3
124.0
130.7
136.2
140.3
144.5
148.2
152.4
156.9
153.5
118.4
123.2
129.3
135.5
143.1
145.2
147.9
148.2
151.4
153.7
151.8
104.8
105.6
108.1
111.4
115.0
116.9
118.4
119.3
119.1
119.3
118.9
107.0
106.5
108.1
105.2
105.4
108.4
105.3
105.9
106.3
105.6
'106.0
103.6
110.2
110.6
111.3
110.5
111.7
110.8
111.5
110.9
111.6
'111.7
'112.4
113.1
154.4
154.9
155.7
156.3
156.6
156.7
157.0
157.3
157.8
158.3
158.6
158.6
152.2
152,4
153.0
153.4
153.9
153.7
153.7
153.9
154.1
154.4
155.1
155.1
118.8
118.5
118.8
119.5
119.7
119.4
119.3
119.1
119.6
119.9
119.5
119.6
120.9
124.2
128.6
133.0
137.2
140.6
143.5
145.9
148.4
151.5
149.6
149.9
150.4
151.3
151.6
151.9
151.7
151.5
151.1
151.6
152.0
151.9
152.1
159.1
155.4
119.5
152.5
Italy
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic
Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES
fStJ£ei}8 of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)
Goods: Imports (customs value)
f
h«si toy
(hv ena-use
enA
t
11
uensus
oasis
category;
Services
(BOP basis)
C
hjuu (Dy
thv end-use
A.
t
\
Census
Dams
category;
Balance of trade
{exports mums imports)
Wtt* D8818
iMiaia
WJr
Period
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
19961-
BOP
basis
250.2
320.2
362.1
389.3
416.9
440.4
456.8
502.5
575.9
611.7
AutoCap- moFoods,
ital
tive
goods vehiTotal, feeds,
Census and
except cles,
basis2 bevm? auto- parts
and
"""*"" mate- moenrials tive gines
Industrial
sup-
254.1
322.4
363.8
393.6
421.7
4485
465.1
512.6
584.7
624.8
24.3
32.3
37.2
35.1
35.7
40.3
40.6
41.9
50.5
55.5
66.7
85.1
99.3
104.4
109.7
109.1
111.8
121.4
146.3
147.3
86.2
109.2
138.8
152.7
166.7
175.9
181.7
205.2
233.0
252.7
24.6
29.3
34.8
37.4
40.0
47.0
52.4
57.6
61.8
64.5
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
BOP
basis
17.7
23.1
36.4
43.3
45.9
51.4
54.7
60.0
64.4
70.2
409.8
4475
477.4
498.3
491.0
536.5
589.4
668.6
749.4
799.3
Total,
Census
basis3
4065
441.0
4735
495.3
488.5
532.7
580.7
663.3
743.4
791.4
Auto- ConInCapmo- sumer
Foods, dusital
tive goods
trial goods vehi(nonfeeds, supand
food)
except
cles,
plies
bevauto- parts except
and
erages mate- moand
automotive
enrials
gines tive
24.8
24.8
25.1
26.6
26.5
27.6
27.9
31.0
33.2
35.7
111.0
118.3
132.3
143.2
131.6
138.6
145.6
162.0
180.7
199.3
84.5
101.4
113.3
116.4
120.7
134.3
152.4
184.4
221.4
229.0
85.2
87.7
86.1
87.3
85.7
91.8
102.4
118.3
124.8
130.1
88.7
95.9
102.9
105.7
108.0
122.7
134.0
146.3
160.0
171.1
Exports
Imports
Goods,
Census
basis
Goods
98.3
110.9
127.0
147.5
163.8
177.3
186.1
195.8
210.6
223.9
91.7
99.5
103.5
118.8
119.6
119.5
125.5
134.1
1425
150.5
-152.1
-118.5
— 109.4
-101.7
-66.7
-84.5
-115.6
-150.6
-158.7
-166.6
-159.6
-127.0
1155
— 109.0
-74.1
— 96.1
-132.6
-166.1
- 173.4
-187.6
Services
Goods
and
services
6.6
11.4
23.5
28.7
44.2
57.8
60.6
61.7
68.4
73.4
- 152.9
- 115.5
— 91.8
-80.3
-29.9
-38.3
-72.0
-104.4
- 105.1
- 114.2
1995: Dec
50.1
50.9
4.5
12.1
21.2
5.2
5.5
62.7
62.5
2.7
14.8
19.3
10.3
13.2
18.0
11.8
-11.6
-12.6
6.2
-6.4
1996: Jon
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov' ....
Dec*
48.7
50.9
50.5
50.7
51.4
51.0
48.8
51.1
50.3
52.9
53.3
52.2
49.3
51.7
51.4
51.6
52.5
51.9
50.2
52.5
51.6
53.9
54.6
53.5
4.7
4.5
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.7
4.7
4.4
4.5
5.0
4.4
11.9
12.2
12.5
12.7
12.5
12.3
11.4
12.2
12.0
12.7
19.9
21.3
20.8
21.1
21.1
20.7
20.0
21.0
20.1
22.4
22.3
22.1
5.2
5.4
4.9
4.9
5.4
5.5
5.2
5.4
6.1
5.2
5.8
5.5
5.5
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.2
6.1
6.0
64.2
63.7
64.9
66.3
68.2
65.6
66.3
67.5
67.8
67.0
67.6
68.7
63.9
63.3
63.7
64.7
66.9
64.7
65.8
66.7
67.5
66.6
67.3
68.5
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.2
15.6
14.7
15.3
16.6
17.0
16.3
17.0
16.9
17.4
17.5
16.8
17.7
19.5
19.4
19.5
18.8
19.0
18.6
18.6
18.8
18.9
18.7
19.1
19.6
10.6
10.6
10.0
10.5
11.5
10.8
11.1
11.6
11.2
10.3
11.3
10.6
13.5
13.7
13.7
13.5
14.2
13.9
13.9
14.4
14.8
14.9
14.8
15.3
17.9
18.3
18.8
18.4
18.7
18.8
18.5
18.6
18.5
18.8
195
19.2
12.0
12.3
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.5
12.7
12.7
12.5
12.8
12.9
12.9
-14.5
-11.6
-12.3
-13.1
-14.4
-12.9
-15.6
-14.3
-15.9
-12.7
-12.7
-15.0
-15.5
— 12.8
-14.4
-15.6
-16.8
-14.6
-17.5
-16.4
-17.5
-14.1
-14.3
-16.6
5.9
6.0
6.6
6.1
6.1
6.3
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.1
6.3
6.3
-9.6
-6.8
-7.9
-9.5
-10.7
1
12.2
12.4
Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.
2
Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.
-8.4
-11.8
-10.5
-11.4
-8.0
-7.9
-10.3
NOTE,—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis, BOP data
shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter of 1996, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $51.6 billion, from $47.0 billion in the second
quarter. The current account deficit rose to $48.0 billion, from $40.2 billion in the second quarter.
BIlUONSOFDCXiARS'
HWONSOFDOUARS*
-35
-40
-40
-45
- -45
-
-50
-50
-55
-55
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
•SEASONAUY ADJUSTED
SOUBCE DBWtlMaffCf COMMBKE
1996
OOUNCt Of ECONOMIC ACMSBS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (— )]
Goods1
Period
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1994: I
n
in
IV
1995- I
n
m
IV
1996: I
II
vi'
1
Net
balance
Balance
on
Payments
goods Receipts on
foreign
on U.S.
and
assets
in
services abroad assets
TJ.S.
Net
Net
travel Other
military and
trans- trans- servacporta- ices,
net
tions23
tion
receipts
Exports
Imports
223,344,
250,208
320,230
362,120
389,307
416,913
440,352
456,832
502,463
575,940
118,462
122,909
127,237
133,855
138,551
142,983
144,984
149,422
150,028
153,095
149,937
-368,425 -145,081 5181 -8,484 18,609 - 140,136 91,976
-409,765 - 159,557 -3,844 - 7,613 18,097 - 152,918 100,767
-447,189 -126,959 -6,320 -2,591 20,352 - 115,518 129,070
-477,365 -115,245 -6,749
4,043 26,192 -91,758 152,517
-498,337 - 109,030 -7,599
8,002 28,291 -80,336 160,300
-490,981
-74,068 -5,274 17,032 32,440 -29,872 137,003
-96,106 -1,448 20,484 38,805 -38,264 119,046
-536,458
880 20,026 39,665 -72,039 119,900
-589,441 -132,609
-668,584 -166,121 1,963
16,711 43,068 - 104,379 141,704
-749,364 -173,424 3,585 18,361 46,415 - 105,064 182,659
-38 4,016 10,159 -22,702 31,841
-155,301
-36,839
367 4,221 10,614 -25,882 33,287
-41,084
-163,993
1,171 3,758 11,039 -28,447 37,212
-171,652
-44,415
463 4,717 11,257 -27,346 39,368
43783
-177,638
628 3,770 11,010 -29,515 44,100
- 183,474
-44,923
859 3,834 11,410 -31,824 46,779
-190,910
-47,927
-187,532
-42,548 1,120
5,087 12,006 -24,335 45,269
-38,026
978
5,670 11,987 -19,391 46,513
-187,448
-42,730
489 5,362 12,652 -24,227 47,497
-192,758
-200,091
725
-46,996
5,349 12,345 -28,577 48,010
710 5,077 11,972 -33,834 48,303
-201,530
-51,593
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.
2
Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports).
36
Investment income
Services
Net
-79,095
12,881
-91,302
9,465
-115,722
13,348
-138,639
13,878
- 139,402 20,897
-121,159
15,844
- 107,851 11,195
-110,158
9,742
-145,863 -4,159
-190,674 -8,016
-30,678
1,163
-33,923
-636
-38,801 -1,589
-42,462 -3,094
-45,000
-900
-47,641
-862
-49,630 -4,361
-48,403 -1,890
-47,235
262
-50,274 -2,264
-53,008 -4,705
3
Balance
on goods, Unilateral
services, transfers,
and
net4
income
Balance
on
current
account
- 127,255
- 143,453
-102,170
-77,880
-59,439
- 14,028
-27,069
-62,297
-108,539
- 113,079
-21,539
-26,518
-30,036
-30,440
-30,415
-32,686
-28,696
-21,281
-23,965
-30,841
-38,539
- 152,088
-167,392
-128,436
- 105,575
-94,657
-9,518
-62,583
-99,936
-148,405
- 148,154
-29,708
-36,025
-40,011
-42,655
-39,054
-40,976
-37,688
-30,435
-34,869
-40,210
-47,961
-24,833
-23,939
-26,266
-27,696
-35,219
4,510
-35,514
-37,640
-39,866
-35,075
-8,169
-9,507
-9,975
-12,215
-8,639
-8,290
-8,992
-9,154
- 10,904
-9,369
-9,422
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
* Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs.
See p. 3? for continuation of table.
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $32.5 billion in the third quarter
of 1996, following almost no change in the second Quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S.
banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $0.3 billion In the third quarter, following an increase of $1.9 billion
in the second quarter.
BUQNSOFDOUARS*
BILUONSOFDOUARS-
COUNCl OF ECONOMIC «M5BS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[inerease/capiti
Period
Total
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1994:
I
n
ra
IV
1995: I
n
ra
IV
1996:
I
n
nip
TJ.S.
official
reserve
assets35
312
-106,753
9,149
-72,617
-100,087 -3,912
-168,744 -25,293
-74,011 -2,158
-57,881
5,763
3,901
-68,622
-194,609 -1,379
5,346
-150,695
-307,856 -9,742
-36,897
-59
3,537
-28,627
-165
-25,569
2,033
-59,603
-61,747 -5,318
-108,299 -2,722
-39,595 -1,893
-98,214
191
17
-68,750
-523
-50,726
7,489
-54,676
Other U.S.
Government
assets
-2,022
1,006
2,967
1,259
2,307
2,911
-1,657
-342
341
-280
399
491
-288
-943
-154
-179
252
-199
-152
-353
72
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase/capital inflow (+)]
)]
U.S.
private
assets
-105,044
-82,771
-99,141
-144,710
-74,160
-66,555
-70,866
- 192,889
- 155,700
-297,834
-37,237
-32,655
-25,116
-60,693
-56,275
-105,398
37954
-98,206
-68,615
-49,850
-62,237
Total
226,111
242,983
240,265
218,490
122,192
94,241
154,285
250,996
285,376
424,462
83,235
45,889
83,619
72,632
90,995
115,421
118,816
99,229
99,471
100,549
123,999
5
Consists of gold, fipecial drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
Foreign
official
assets3
Other
foreign
assets
35,648
45,387
39,758
8,503
33,910
17,389
40,477
72,153
40,253
109,757
11,036
9,166
19,785
266
21,822
37,380
39,186
11,369
52,021
13,566
23,642
190,463
197,596
200,507
209,987
88,282
76,853
113,808
178,843
245,123
314,705
72,199
36,723
63,834
72,366
69,173
78,041
79,630
87,860
47,450
86,983
100,357
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special Total (sum
which:
drawing of the items Of
Seasonal
rights
with sign
adjustment
(SDKs)
reversed)
discrepancy
32,729
-2,974
-11,743
55;830
46,476
-26,843
-23,080
43,550
13,724
31,548
-16,630
18,763
-18,039
29,626
9,806
33,854
-41,533
29,420
4,148
-9,613
-21,362
5,105
274
-6,490
1,107
6,519
-266
-7,407
1,153
6,279
-801
-8,699
U.S. official
reserve
assets, net9
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
48,511
45,798
47,802
74,609
83,316
77,721
71,323
73,442
74,335
85,832
76,809
75,732
76,532
74,335
86,761
90,063
87,152
85,832
84,212
83,455
75,509
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME. AND SPENDING
***•
Gross Domestic Product
Real Gross Domestic Product
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product
Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes
Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
Real Private Fixed Investment by Type
Business Investment and Plans
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
.
>
EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
,
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
,
,
,
,
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY. CREDIT. AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfmancial Corporate Business
Consumer Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
,
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
U.S. International Transactions
,
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
f Preliminary.
••Revised.
e
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
nn
38
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