Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
FEBRUARY 1989
(Includes data available as of March 3, 1989)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1989
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman
PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York)
FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan)
SENATE
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee)
RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVE SYMMS (Idaho)
PETE WILSON (California)
CONNIE MACK (Florida)
JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2,25 a single copy
($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
In the fourth quarter of 1988, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.2
percent (annual rate) or $86.2 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.0 percent and the
implicit price deflator rose 5.3 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,^00 1
5,200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
4,800|
4400
^~
GNP
IN rl RRENT DOLLA
4,000
""
-
^^ f^
!<;
4,000
—
-r
—
3,600
—
GNP
3,200
N 1982DOLL4
3,200
RS
—
^~
^
/
2,800
4,400
—
---"""'
3,600
4,800
2,800
—
2,400
^
\
2,000|
\
\
2,400
\
1980
\
\
1
1981
1
\
1
\
\
1
1983
1982
1
1
1984
1
1
1
\
\
\
1
1986
1985
i
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1
1
1 1 1
1987
2,000
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Gross
national
product
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Government purchases of
goods and services
Exports and imports of goods
and services
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
Final
sales
Gross
domestic
purchases *
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r....
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,405.7
3,772.2
4,014.9
4,240.3
4,526.7
4,863.1
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,629.0
2,807.5
3,012.1
3,227.2
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
643.1
665.9
712.9
766.1
32.1
33.9
26.3
-6.1
-58.9
-78.0
-104.4
-123.0
-94.3
351.0
382.8
361.9
352.5
383.5
370.9
378.4
428.0
520.2
318.9
348.9
335.6
358.7
442.4
448.9
482.8
551.1
614.5
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.0
735.9
820.8
871.2
924.7
964.1
208.1
242.2
272.7
283.5
310.5
355.2
366.2
382.0
380.5
142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
234.3
259.1
277.5
295.3
298.0
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.1
76.2
96.0
88.7
86.7
82.5
322.2
345.9
369.0
391.5
425.3
465.6
505.0
542.8
583.6
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,412.8
3,704.5
4,003.6
4,224.7
4,487.5
4,814.6
2,699.8
3,018.7
3,139.7
3,411.8
3,831.1
4,092.8
4,344.7
4,649.7
4,957.4
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
3,212.5
3,545.8
3,851.8
4,107.9
4,304.6
2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4
2,700.4
2,876.0
409.6
579.8
661.8
654.1
656.4
14.1
-25.8
-67.9
— 103.2
-114.3
335.9
364.7
385.7
369.2
385.2
321.9
390.5
453.6
472.4
499.4
671.8
676.1
764.5
856.7
886.5
293.2
276.1
326.0
376.6
366.7
205.4
221.5
244.1
268.6
278.1
87.7
54.6
81.9
108.0
88.7
378.7
400.0
438.5
480.1
519.7
3,272.4
3,514.8
3,806.8
4,100.7
4,306.6
3,198.5
3,571.6
3,919.7
4,211.2
4,418.9
4,391.8
4,484.2
4,568.0
4,662.8
2,921.7
2,992.2
3,058.2
3,076.3
685.5
698.5
702.8
764.9
-119.1
-122.2
-125.2
-125.7
395.3
416.8
440.4
459.7
514.4
539.0
565.6
585.4
903.8
915.7
932.2
947.3
372.7
377.5
386.3
391.4
287.3
294.8
299.8
299.2
85.4
82.6
86.4
92.2
531.1
538.2
546.0
555.9
4,354.1
4,451.5
4,553.5
4,590.7
4,510.9
4,606.3
4,693.2
4,788.4
4,724.5
4,823.8
4,909.0
4,995.2
3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
3,325.1
763.4
758.1
772.5
770.4
-112.1
-90.4
-80.0
-94.8
487.8
507.1
536.1
549.7
599.9
597.5
616.0
644.5
945.2
961.6
955.3
994.5
377.7
382.2
367.7
394.4
298.4
298.8
294.3
300.6
79.3
83.4
73.4
93.8
567.5
579.4
587.6
600.1
4,659.2
4,780.1
4,859.3
4,959.6
4,836.6
4,914.2
4,989.0
5,090.0
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
1987: I
n
Ill
IV
1988: I
n
m
IV.
1
GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
;e: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Gross private
domestic investment
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 '
19821983198419851986-
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
1987: I
n..
m
IV.
1988- I
n
mr
rv
1
Government purchases of
goods and services
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential
fixed
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,279.1
3,501.4
3,618.7
3,721.7
3,847.0
3,995.1
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,146.0
2,249.3
2,354.8
2,455.2
2,521.0
2,592.1
379.2
395.2
366.7
361.2
425.2
453.5
433.1
445.1
486.9
137.0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.9
174.4
195.0
195.2
191.8
6.9
57.0
23.9
49.4
— 24.5
26.3
-6.4
19 9
62.3 -84.0
9.1
104 3
15.4 -137.5
34.4
1289
42.5 -99.7
388.9
392.7
361.9
348.1
371.8
367.2
378.4
427.8
505.2
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.1
455.8
471.4
515.9
556.7
604.9
620.5
629.7
641.7
649.0
677.7
731.2
760.5
780.2
781.4
3,159.3
3,365.1
3,535.2
3,662.4
3,734.7
2,078.7
2,191.9
2,281.1
2,386.9
2,486.2
352.3
390.4
444.4
460.9
427.3
115.8
159.9
169.6
179.4
199.7
-59.3
11.7
27.0 -46.2
41.7
-94.8
7.7 -125.3
-10.5 -142.4
336.0
355.5
376.6
367.4
387.8
324.3
401.6
471.4
492.6
530.2
3,776.7
3,823.0
3,865.3
3,923.0
2,490.2
2,516.6
2,545.2
2,531.7
418.2
434.8
462.8
464.8
198.4
197.6
192.1
192.7
29.8
27.8
13.0
67.1
-132.8
-126.0
-130.7
-126.0
394.9
416.4
440.9
459.2
3,956.1
3,985.2
4,009.4
4,029.7
2,559.8
2,579.0
2,603.8
2,626.0
473.4
490.2
495.0
489.2
189.5
189.6
191.6
196.6
66.0 -109.0
35.3
-92.6
39.5 -93.9
29.3 -103.3
486.2
496.9
514.0
523.6
Gross
national
product
Change
in
business
inventories
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
State
and
local
Final
sales
Gross
domestic
purchases *
National
defense
Nondefense
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.1
290.8
326.0
333.4
339.0
328.1
171.2
180.3
193.8
206.9
218.5
237.2
251.4
264.9
261.4
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.2
72.3
88.8
82.0
74.1
66.6
373.6
370.1
369.0
373.9
387.0
405.2
427.1
441.2
453.3
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,285.5
3,439.1
3,609.6
3,706.3
3,812.6
3,952.6
3,130.1
3,199.4
3,139.7
3,299.1
3,585.4
3,723.0
3,859.3
3,975.9
4,094.8
660.1
642.2
693.2
752.7
774.5
289.5
266.0
300.5
340.6
340.5
201.4
211.6
225.3
241.4
253.1
88.2
54.4
75.2
99.2
87.4
370.6
376.2
392.7
412.1
434.0
3,218.6
3,338.1
3,493.5
3,654.7
3,745.2
3,147.6
3,411.3
3,630.0
3,787.6
3,877.2
527.7
542.3
571.6
585.2
772.9
772.2
782.9
792.6
334.0
332.1
342.1
347.7
257.0
264.8
269.5
268.2
77.0
67.3
72.6
79.5
438.9
440.1
440.8
444.9
3,746.9
3,795.2
3,852.2
3,855.9
3,909.5
3,949.0
3,996.0
4,049.0
595.1
589.5
607.9
626.8
776.4
783.8
773.5
791.8
327.8
331.6
320.1
332.8
264.6
263.6
256.4
261.1
63.2
67.9
63.7
71.7
448.7
452.2
453.4
459.1
3,890.1
3,949.9
3,969.9
4,000.3
4,065.1
4,077.9
4,103.4
4,132.9
Total
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross private
domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period
Gross
national
product
Total
Durable
goods
ble goods
Services
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential fixed
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and local
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.9
107.7
110.9
113.9
117.7
121.7
86.6
94.6
100.0
104.1
108.1
111.6
114.3
119.5
124.5
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.8
104.8
105.6
107.9
110.1
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.1
105.0
107.5
107.3
112.1
116.4
83.9
92.6
100.0
106.2
111.6
116.8
122.4
128.5
134.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.8
97.9
97.7
100.2
100.4
100.2
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.0
108.3
111.1
116.2
119.8
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.3
103.2
101.0
100.0
100.0
103.0
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.4
97.1
95.2
93.6
99.0
101.6
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.1
106.8
109.0
109.8
112.7
116.0
83.4
92.9
100.0
103.6
107.2
109.2
110.4
111.5
114.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.4
105.5
108.2
108.2
117.0
123.8
86.2
93,4
100.0
104.7
109.9
114.9
118.2
123.0
128.7
101.7
105.4
109.0
112.2
115.3
101.8
105.7
109.3
113.1
115.7
100.7
103.1
104.1
104.7
106.2
101.0
103.1
105.8
108.7
107.8
102.7
108.3
113.5
119.0
124.6
100.7
98.3
97.9
97.9
101.6
99.1
103.1
107.2
109.0
112.4
100.0
102.6
102.4
100.5
99.3
99.3
97.2
96.2
95.9
94.2
101.3
103.8
108.5
110.6
107.7
102.0
104.7
108.3
111.3
109.9
99.5
100.3
108.9
108.8
101.5
102.2
106.3
111.7
116.5
119.7
1987- I
116.3
117.3
118.2
118.9
117.3
118.9
120.2
121.5
106.7
107.5
108.6
108.9
109.8
111.9
112.9
113.7
126.1
127.6
129.1
131.0
101.1
100.8
99.9
99.8
113.4
115.2
117.7
118.7
100.1
100.1
99.9
100.1
97.5
99.4
98.9
100.0
111.6
113.7
112.9
112.6
111.8
111.3
111.3
111.6
110.9
122.9
119.0
116.0
121.0
122.3
123.9
124.9
1988- I
119.4
121.0
122.4
124.0
122.2
123.9
125.2
126.6
109.1
109.6
110.4
111.4
113.8
116.0
117.3
118.3
132.2
134.0
135.6
137.3
99.6
99.5
99.7
101.8
119.5
119.5
119.6
120.5
100.3
102.1
104.3
105.0
100.8
101.4
101.3
102.8
115.2
115.3
114.9
118.5
112.8
113.4
114.8
115.1
125.5
122.7
115.2
130.9
126.5
128.1
129.6
130.7
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r
1982:
19831984:
19851986:
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
n
m
rv
n..
m
w
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross national product
Period
8.9
11.7
3.7
7.6
10.8
6.4
5.6
6.8
7.4
4.2
12.4
4.7
6.2
3.4
8.4
8.7
7.7
8.6
5.4
8.7
7.3
7.2
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985...
1986
1987
1988 "
1982- IV
1983: IV
1984- IV
1985: IV
1986- IV
1987: I
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
..
n
TTT
IV
1988- I
n
m
IV T.
-0.2
1.9
-2.5
3.6
6.8
3.4
2.8
3.4
3.8
.6
7.3
1.7
3.0
1.4
4.6
5.0
4.5
6.1
3.4
3.0
2.5
2.0
Implicit
price
deflator
Personal consumption expenditures
Chain price
index
9,0
9.7
6,4
3.9
3.7
3.0
2.7
3.3
3.4
3.6
4.7
3.0
3.3
2.1
3.5
3.5
3.1
2.4
1.7
5.5
4.7
5.3
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
9.0
9.4
6.3
4.1
3.9
3.3
2.5
3.4
r
3.8
4.1
3.9
3.1
3.2
2.4
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.0
4.8
4.7
4.2
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
10.6
10.5
7.1
9.0
8.8
8.2
6.8
7.3
7.1
10.3
9.7
7.2
6.0
4.8
6.5
10.0
9.1
2.4
6.9
8.8
8.6
8.1
9.3
9.3
6.2
4.1
4.0
3.4
2.8
3.6
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.2
3.3
2.8
4.2
4.2
3.7
3.8
3.5
5.0
5.3
4.2
Implicit
price
deflator
-0.2
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.3
2.7
2.8
10.7
9.2
5.7
4.1
3.8
3.2
2.4
4.5
4.2
5.3
5.5
4.3
1.9
1.2
.6
4.3
4.6
21
4.5
3.0
3.9
3.5
4.4
4.3
3.0
4.0
3.5
5.6
5.6
4.4
4.4
2.3
5.7
4,3
4.5
Chain price
index
Fisedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
10.9
9.2
5.7
4.2
3.9
3.5
2.7
4.5
4.2
4.8
4.1
3.1
4,2
3.5
5.5
5.7
4.3
4.4
2.5
5.6
4.6
4.7
10.5
9.0
5.6
4.2
4.0
3.5
2.7
4.5
4.3
4.8
4.1
3.2
4.3
3.5
5.6
5.7
4.2
4.6
2.4
5.7
4.9
4.7
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) l
Gross domestic
product of
nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Period
Current
dollars
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988"
1982: IV...
1983- IV
1984: IV
1985- IV
1986: IV
1987: I
n
m
rv
1988: I
n
m
1
lars.
s.
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,914.2
2,146.7
2,267.1
2,371.6
2,513.5
r
2,707.1
1,779.4
2,012.5
2,201.8
2,309.2
. . 2,409.3
2,438.8
2,482.7
2,546.9
2,585.6
2,633.2
2,684.0
2,732.1
1982
dollars
1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.0
2,036.5
2,117.4
2,177.2
2,270.4
r
2,386.7
1,760.2
1,940.5
2,069.5
2,137.7
2,199.0
2,215.0
2,248.0
2,296.1
2,322.5
2,363.5
2,380.9
2,395.5
Capital
consumption
Total
cost
and
profit 2
ances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Indirect
business
taxes 3
Compensation of
employees
Net
interest
0.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.054
1.071
1.089
1.107
1.134
1.011
1.037
1.064
1.080
1.096
1.101
1.104
1.109
1.113
1.114
1.127
1.140
0.095
.109
.125
.123
.118
.119
.121
.122
.122
.131
.120
.118
.120
.122
.122
.122
.121
.121
.121
.122
.122
0.077
.090
.094
.098
.100
.103
.105
.106
.107
.096
.098
.102
.104
.105
.105
.106
.106
.105
.105
.106
.108
0.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.704
.719
.732
.753
.685
.680
.694
.713
.725
.730
.730
.729
.738
.736
.747
.758
0.031
.037
.043
.037
.039
.038
.039
.043
.048
.042
.037
.042
.037
.040
.041
.043
.044
.046
.045
.047
.048
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
{e decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
Corporate profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
4
Total
0.068
.078
.063
.089
.109
.106
.106
.105
.104
.057
.103
.107
.106
.104
.103
.104
.109
.103
.106
.106
.104
Profits
tax
liability
0.037
.035
.026
.032
.036
.033
.035
.044
.045
.023
.036
.032
.033
.039
.041
.043
.046
.044
.044
.046
.046
Profits
after
tax 4
0.031
.044
.037
.057
.073
.073
.071
.061
.059
.034
.066
.075
.072
.065
.061
.061
.063
.059
.062
.060
.058
Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)
Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)
17.096
17.194
17.318
17.865
18.287
18.584
18.927
19.216
9.039
10.861
11.699
12.122
12.569
13.075
13.605
14.062
17.383
18.029
18.359
18.639
19.043
18.996
19.142
19.362
19.357
19.560
19.481
r
19.443
11.914
12.261
12.746
13.288
13.815
13.869
13.969
14.110
14.291
14.397
14.546
' 14.743
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of CommeTce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) asad D«paitmfc»t o(
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
National
income
Period
Compensation of
employees1
Proprietors' income
with inventory
valuation and capital
consumption
adjustments
Farm
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 '
198219831984:
19851986:
1987-
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
I
n
m
rv
1988- 1
n
mr
rv
1
Kental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Nonfarm
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
Profits
before tax
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Capital
consumption
adjustment
Net
interest
2,518.4
2,719.5
3,028.6
3,234.0
3,437.1
3,678.7
3,965.0
2,548.2
2,851.5
3,096.1
3,312.8
3,496.6
3,573.0
3,631.8
3,708.0
3,802.0
1,907.0
2,020.7
2,213.9
2,367.5
2,507.1
2,683.4
2,905.2
1,931.1
2,092.7
2,272.7
2,426.7
2,565.8
2,608.9
2,652.0
2,702.8
2,769.9
24.6
12.4
30.5
30.2
36.4
43.0
36.3
28.5
19.3
28.1
29.2
38.4
46.7
43.0
35.2
47.0
150.9
178.4
204.0
225.6
250.3
270.0
288.5
159.8
188.6
209.7
235.0
255.8
263.5
265.9
271.5
279.0
13.6
13.2
8.5
9.2
12.4
18.4
19.5
15.8
12.4
5.6
7.8
13.4
17.4
17.8
18.1
20.5
150.0
213.7
266.9
282.3
298.9
310.4
323.8
146.1
248.5
266.9
291.4
293.9
298.3
305.2
322.0
316.1
159.2
196.7
234,2
222.6
244.7
258.7
278.2
150.7
223.4
224.6
228.4
244,1
247.5
253.6
269.9
263.7
169.6
207.6
240.0
224.3
236.4
276.7
302.1
164.1
231.5
226.1
235.0
252.1
261.8
273.7
289.4
281.9
-10.4
-10.9
-5.8
-2.7
8.3
-18.0
-23.9
-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-6.6
-8.1
-14.4
-20.0
-19.5
-18.2
-9.2
17.0
32.7
59.7
54.2
51.7
45.6
-4.5
25.1
42.3
63.0
49.8
50.8
51.5
52.1
52.4
272.3
281.0
304.8
319.0
331.9
353.6
391.9
266.9
290.2
313.1
322.7
329.3
338.3
348.1
358.3
369.5
3,850.8
3,928.8
4,000.7
2,816.4
2,874.0
2,933.2
2,997.2
44.7
43.4
30.9
26.1
279.2
285.3
290.7
298.6
20.5
19.1
19.7
18.6
316.2
326.5
330.0
266.8
278.5
284.6
286.2
305.9
313.9
-19.4
-27.4
-29.3
-19.6
49.4
48.0
45.4
39.7
373.9
380.6
396.2
416.7
Includes employnr contributions /or social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures
Period
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 '.
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV
1985: IV
1986- IV
1987: I
n
in
IV
1988- I
n
in r
rv .
.
Total
durable
goods
Other
Total
nondurable
goods
Food
Clothing and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
Other
Services
Retail sales of
new passenger
cars (millions of
units)
Domestics
Imports
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,629.0
2,807.5
3,012.1
3,227.2
2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4
2,700.4
2,876.0
2,921.7
2,992.2
3,058.2
3,076.3
252.7
289.1
335.5
372.2
406.5
421.9
451.1
263.8
310.0
346.7
373.2
421.8
403.5
420.5
441.4
422.0
108.9
130.4
157,4
179,1
196.4
195.8
208.6
115.7
144.4
162.3
173.8
201.0
181.7
194.5
212.9
194.0
95.7
107J
118.8
129.9
140.0
148.3
159.0
99.1
112.4
122.7
134.7
143.3
145.9
147.8
150.2
149.4
48.1
51.6
59.3
63.2
70.1
77.8
83.5
49.0
53.2
61.8
64.7
77.5
75.9
78.3
78.3
78.6
771.0
816.7
867.3
911.2
943.6
997.9
1,047.4
786.6
837.9
879.6
932.7
954.1
977.5
995.3
1,006.6
1,012.4
398.8
421.9
448.5
471.6
501.0
526.4
551.9
407.0
430.8
456.1
482.5
512.6
521.0
525.3
528.4
530.9
124.4
135.1
146.7
156.4
167.0
178.2
186.5
126.5
141.1
149.8
160.6
169.4
174.5
176.8
180.4
181.2
89.1
90.2
90.0
90.6
73.3
77.0
78.8
89.8
91.9
89.0
91.0
66.3
72.1
77.4
79.3
79.3
158.7
169.5
182.1
192.6
202.2
216.3
230.2
163.4
174.0
184.7
198.5
205.8
209.9
215.8
218.5
220.9
1,027.0
1,128.7
1,227.6
1,345.6
1,457.3
1,592.3
1,728.7
1,066.5
1,167.9
1,267.1
1,394.5
1,500.1
1,540.7
1,576.4
1,610.2
1,641.9
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
8.2
7.1
7.5
6.0
7.4
7.7
7.0
7.7
6.7
7.1
8.0
6.6
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.4
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.3
3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
3,325.1
437.8
449.8
452.9
464.0
202.2
208.7
210.2
213.5
154.7
159.5
159.5
162.3
81.0
81.5
83.2
88.3
1,016.2
1,036.6
1,060.8
1,076.1
535.9
546.3
558.9
566.6
180.5
183.2
188.4
193.7
76.3
78.8
80.5
79.5
223.5
228.2
233.0
236.3
1,674.1
1,708.2
1,747.5
1,785.0
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Furniture
and
household
equipment
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $74.0 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $37.6 billion in December.
(The changes were affected by several special factors: A pay raise for Federal Government employees, cost-ofliving adjustments to several Federal transfer payment programs, and changes in contributions for social insurance
programs affected the January change, and subsidy payments to farm proprietors affected both the January and
December changes. Excluding these special factors personal income increased $68.4 billion in January and $32.2
billion in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
1 5,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
5,000 I—
3,200
3,200
1,600
1,600
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
OTHER INCOME
800
800
T
TRANSFER
PAYMENTS
400
400
Illlllll I
1981
1982
1985
1984
1983
1986
1987
1988
1989
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 T
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ...,
July
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec T
1989- Jan "
1
personal
income
Wage and
salary
disbursements l
Proprietor ' income 3
Other labor
income 1 2
Farm
income of
persons 4
dividend
income
2,258.4
2 5209
2,670.8
2 8386
3 1087
3,325.3
3531 1
3,780.0
40634
1,372.0
1 5103
1 586 1
1 676 6
1 8386
1,975.4
2 0940
2 248.4
2 437 3
138.4
1503
163.6
173 6
182.9
187.6
196 1
207.9
2183
20.5
30 7
24.6
12 4
305
30.2
364
43.0
363
160.1
156 1
150.9
1784
204.0
225.6
250.3
270.0
288.5
6.6
13 3
13.6
13 2
85
9.2
124
18.4
195
52.9
61.3
63.9
687
75.5
78.7
82.8
88.6
963
3921 8
3,946.7
39859
4,001.0
4021 4
4 044.9
4075 3
4091.8
4,114.7
4 178 3
4,170.4
4 208 0
2 342 3
2 359.0
2 374 7
2 394.0
2 408 4
24275
2 451 9
2 459 1
2,475.0
2 508 1
2 516.1
2 532 1
214.0
214.6
2152
215.8
2164
217.4
2185
219.5
220.5
221 5
222.5
223 5
359
41.5
568
44.8
45 2
40.3
34 1
31.4
27.2
41 5
13.7
23 1
278.6
279.0
279 9
283.3
2852
287.5
289 4
290.2
292.6
296.7
298.3
300.9
208
20.5
202
19.3
189
19.0
19 3
19 7
20.0
192
18.5
17 9
92.8
93.6
940
94.7
950
95.4
963
97.5
98.0
98.9
99.4
998
42820
2 562 4
224.5
45.8
303.8
188
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
^Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
4
With capital consumption adjustment.
Nonfarm
Less:
101.2
interest
income
271.9
3354
369.7
393 1
444 7
478.0
499 1
527.0
5763
5544
554.1
554 1
558.8
563 7
5687
5749
581 8
589.1
597 2
605.4
613 8
6224
payments 5
contributions
for social
insurance
personal
income 6
324.7
368 1
410.6
442 6
456.6
489.8
521 1
548.8
5860
88.6
1045
112.3
120 1
132 7
149.3
161 1
172.0
195 1
2,215.8
2465 6
2,618.7
2 799 0
3052 1
3,271.3
34725
3,716.0
4006 1
572 2
574.6
582 2
582.8
582 0
583.6
587 0
589 2
589.7
594 7
596.5
597 7
189 1
190.2
191 2
1924
193 4
1946
196 2
196 5
197.4
199 5
2000
200 9
3 8655
3,884.7
3908 7
3,935.4
3 955 1
3983 3
4020 2
40393
4,066.3
4 115 6
4,135.4
4 163 6
6129
209 8
4 214 9
5
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
6
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1988.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
3,800
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
3,800
3,400
3,400
800
1,400
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
1,400
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
16,000
16,000
14,000
14,000
12,000
12,000
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
1988
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Period
Persona!
income
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
Disposable
personal
Less:
Personal
outlays '
Equals:
Personal
saving
Disposable
persona!
income in
1982
dollars
(billions)
Per capita
disposable personal
income
Current
dollars
Billions of dollars
1980
1981....
1982
1983
1984....
1985
1986....
1987
1988 r.
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,108.7
3,325.3
3,531.1
3,780.0
4,063.4
340.5
393.3
409.3
410.5
440.2
486.6
511.4
570.3
590.4
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,428.1
2,668.6
2,838.7
3,019.6
3,209.7
s',473.0
1982
dollars
Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,297.4
2,504.5
2,713.3
2,898.0
3,105.5
136.8
159.4
153.9
130.6
164.1
125.4
121.7
104.2
145.8
2,214.3
2,248.6
2,261.5
2,331.9
2,469.8
2,542.8
2,640.9
2,686.3
2^789.5
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,340
11,257
11,861
12,496
13,157
14,108
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
{thousands) 2
2.1
4.9
2.0
2.9
.8
2.9
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.4
6.1
4.4
4.0
3.2
4.2
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,051
239,322
241,650
243,944
246,179
1.2
9.1
1.7
3.3
-.2
6.2
5.8
5.8
3.9
3.2
233,466
235,707
237,946
240,257
242,557
3.8
3.7
5.8
4.2
2.2
2.3
4.3
243,077
243,618
244,236
244,845
4.2
-.8
4.5
3.7
4.4
3.7
4.2
4.5
245,318
245,806
246,469
247,121
7,607
8,320
8,818
9,515
10,253
10,985
11,618
12,348
13,109
8,783
— 1.1
9,769
9,724
9,930
10,419
10,625
10,929
11,012
11,331
8,794
8,818
9,139
9,489
9,839
10,160
10,334
10,529
.5
9,722
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Percent
Dollars
1,781.1
Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income
-.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
1987: I
n
m...
IV....
1988: I
n
m...
rv r..
2,729.2
2,941.8
3,188.3
3,399.1
3,599.6
411.1
413.9
459.7
499.6
534.9
2,318.1
2,527.9
2,728.6
2,899.5
3,064.7
2,174.9
2,382.5
2,571.3
2,787.7
2,967.9
143.1
145.4
157.3
111.7
96.8
2,276.1
2,392.7
2,496.3
2,562.8
2,649.4
9,929
10,725
11,467
12,068
12,635
9,749
10,151
10,491
10,667
10,923
9,068
9,825
10,479
11,240
11,857
8,904
9,299
9,587
9,935
10,250
3,676.1
3,736.1
3,801.0
3,906.8
532.2
582.0
576.2
591.0
3,143.9
3,154.1
3,224.9
3,315.8
3,013.1
3,084.7
3,152.3
3,171.8
130.8
69.5
72.6
144.0
2,679.6
2,652.8
2,683.9
2,728.9
12,934
12,947
13,204
13,543
11,024
10,889
10,989
11,145
12,020
12,282
12,521
12,564
10,245
10,330
10,421
10,340
3,951.4
4,022.4
4,094.0
4,185.5
575.8
601.0
586.5
598.2
3,375.6
3,421.5
3,507.5
3,587.4
3,225.7
3,293.6
3,361.8
3,427.6
149.9
127.8
145.7
159.8
2,762.3
2,762.2
2,800.4
2,833.1
13,760
13,919
14,231
14,517
11,260
11,237
11,362
11,465
12,751
12,996
13,232
13,455
10,435
10,492
10,564
10,626
1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, ,
al transfer payments to foreigners (net).
-4.8
2
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1988, according to preliminary data, gross farm income rose $4.1 billion (annual rate) and
net farm income rose $2.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO S CALE)
BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
'240
200
240
200
1I—-^
^-—
160
>
-~""
3
~H
/
I—-^ __—•—1
r
**^
160
GRO SS FARM INCOME
120
120
80
80
40
40
20
20
10
10
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Net farm income
Gross farm income
Period
Cash marketing receipts
Total 1
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 "
1986- I
H
ITT
IV
1987:
I
U
m
IV
1988- I
II
III p
rv
149.3
166.4
163.5
153.0
174.9
166.2
159.8
169.8
170.3
150.4
168.0
158.1
162.6
173.6
162.5
168.9
173.7
176.4
184.5
158.1
162.2
139.7
141.7
142.6
136.6
142.4
144.0
135.1
138.1
148.8
134.9
129.9
137.8
137.7
134.9
134.4
146.5
136.6
145.3
157.1
151.7
140.6
Livestock and
products
71.7
72.5
72.3
67.1
69.5
74.2
63.6
61.9
69.1
66.9
62.1
60.5
64.7
61.6
57.4
66.9
61.5
67.1
81.6
66.3
61.3
68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
73.0
69.8
71.5
76.2
79.6
68.0
67.8
77.3
73.0
73.3
77.0
79.6
75.1
78.2
75.5
85.4
79.3
1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Crops
3
Value of
inventory
changes 2
Production
expenses
-6.3
6.5
-1.4
-10.9
6.3
— 2.4
-2.8
6
-7.9
133.1
139.4
140.0
140.4
142.7
134.0
122.3
123.5
131.7
-3.8
-3.3
-2.3
-1.9
g
.1
.4
-1.9
-4.0
-5.4
-10.0
12.1
125.4
122.2
121.1
120.7
Current
dollars
120.3
124.1
125.0
124.6
127.2
129.8
134.1
135.8
1982 dollars 3
16.1
26.9
23.5
12.7
32.2
32.3
37.5
46.3
38.5
25.0
45.9
37.0
41.9
53.4
38.4
43.9
49.0
49.2
54.7
24.0
26.4
Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator.
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.
18.8
28.6
23.5
12.2
29.9
29.1
32.9
39.3
31.7
22.2
40.4
32.3
36.3
45.9
32.8
37.2
41.2
41.2
45.3
19.7
21.4
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1988, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $8.0 billion (annual|
rate) and after-tax profits rose $6.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
320
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
280
280
PROFITS BEFORE TAX..
240
240
200
200
160
160
PROFITS AFTER TAX
.V-
120
120
TAX LIABILITY
80
80
40
40
UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS
I
I
I
1
1980
I
I
1981
I
I
1982
I
I
I
I
I
1983
I I
1984
I
I I
1985
I
I I
I
1986
1 I
1987
1
1 1
1988
0
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1
Profits after tax
Domestic industries
Period
1980..
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987..
1988 r
19821983:
198419851986:
IV
TV
IV
IV
IV
1987- I
n
m
IV
1988- I
n
TIT
jyp
1
2
Nonfinancial
Total 2
Total
Financial
Total 3
Wholesale and
retail
trade
Tax
liability
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
194.0
202.3
159.2
196.7
234.2
222.6
244.7
258.7
278.2
159.6
173.8
131.2
166.6
203.3
191.4
212.8
222.3
241.3
21.0
16.5
11.8
18.1
13.0
22.8
31.8
30.1
31.2
138.6
157.3
119.4
148.5
190.3
168.6
180.9
192.1
210.1
77.1
88.5
58.0
70.1
88.8
79.7
79.4
96.8
111.6
21.6
32.5
34.6
38.9
51.2
44.1
46.1
42.8
38.6
237.1
226.5
169.6
207.6
240.0
224.3
236.4
276.7
302.1
84.8
81.1
63.1
77.2
93.9
96.4
106.6
133.8
140.9
152.3
145.4
106.5
130.4
146.1
127.8
129.8
142.9
161.3
54.7
63.6
66.9
71.5
79.0
83.3
88.2
95.5
104.5
97.6
81.8
39.6
58.9
67.0
44.6
41.6
47.4
56.8
-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.9
-5.8
-1.7
8.3
-18.0
-23.9
150.7
223.4
224.6
228.4
244.1
121.6
190.7
193.9
193.6
211.9
18.7
15.5
13.6
26.0
28.9
102.9
175.2
180.3
167.6
183.0
46.8
88.6
79.8
83.8
87.7
33.6
43.1
51.8
38.5
42.5
164.1
231.5
226.1
235.0
252.1
59.8
88.1
87.0
99.8
114.3
104.3
143.4
139.2
135.2
137.9
68.5
73.9
80.8
84.0
89.8
35.8
69.5
58.4
51.2
48.1
-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-6.6
-8.1
247.5
253.6
269.9
263.7
213.0
219.2
234.6
222.2
30.7
31.4
29.5
28.8
182.3
187.8
205.1
193.4
84.8
93.8
107.0
101.7
46.5
37.8
44.1
43.0
261.8
273.7
289.4
281.9
126.3
132.6
140.0
136.2
135.5
141.1
149.5
145.7
91.7
94.0
97.0
99.3
43.8
47.0
52.4
46.4
-14.4
-20.0
-19.5
-18.2
266.8
278.5
284.6
236.6
243.1
243.8
27.6
30.0
32.7
209.0
213.1
211.1
110.6
114.5
111.4
43.9
37.0
36.6
286.2
305.9
313.9
136.9
143.2
144.8
149.4
162.7
169.1
101.3
103.1
105.7
108.0
48.1
59.6
63.4
-19.4
-27.4
-29.3
'
19.6
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Manufacturing
Profits
before tax
3
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
\ccording to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1988, nonresidential fixed investment rose $4.3 billion
annual rate) and residential investment rose $7.7 billion. There was a $35.6 billion increase in inventories,
following an increase of $49.7 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
~ 800
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
700
700
600
600
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
-100
-100
1987
1980
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in business
inventories
Fixed investment
Period
Gross
private
domestic
investment
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 *
19821983:
19841985:
19861987-
TV
IV
IV
IT
IV
I
TJ
m
rv
1988- I
n
mr
IV
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Nonresidential
Total
Total
Structures
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
Total
Nonfarm
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
643.1
665.9
712.9
766.1
445.3
491.5
471.8
509.4
597.1
631.8
650.4
673.7
717.5
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.9
416.0
442.9
433.9
446.8
487.8
113.9
138.5
143.3
124.0
141.1
153.2
138.5
139.5
142.9
208.9
230.7
223.4
232.8
274.9
289.7
295.4
307.3
344.8
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.5
181.1
188.8
216.6
226.9
229.8
-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-7.1
67.7
11.3
15.5
39.2
48.6
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.4
60.5
14.6
17.4
40.7
42.4
409.6
579.8
661.8
654.1
656.4
469.5
548.8
616.8
646.8
658.4
354.9
383.9
435.0
451.3
434.1
137.6
127.4
146.6
155.9
134.6
217.3
256.5
288.4
295.5
299.4
114.7
164.9
181.8
195.5
224.4
-59.9
31.0
45.0
7.2
-2.0
-51.1
21.3
41.3
23.7
3.0
685.5
698.5
702.8
764.9
647.8
665.8
688.3
692.9
422.8
438.2
462.1
464.1
132.7
134.4
143.0
147.7
290.1
303.8
319.1
316.3
225.0
227.6
226.2
228.8
37.7
32.7
14.5
72.0
40.9
31.4
17.8
72.8
763.4
758.1
772.5
770.4
698.1
714.4
722.8
734.8
471.5
487.8
493.7
498.0
140.1
142.3
143.8
145.3
331.3
345.5
349.9
352.6
226.6
226.5
229.1
236.8
65.3
43.7
49.7
35.6
49.4
33.1
41.9
45.2
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 6.0 percent in 1989, following an estimated rise of 10.4 percent in 1988.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
iOO
SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
400
—
400
1
—
~—-^^__
^^^-"^
500
|
""
' /
1
~> LL INDUSTRIES
„——~
300
'
—.
300
^
-.--•*'"*"""*'""
—
.«-*•"""'
200
200
JMANUFACTU
.-"---""*""""
---'""?
'
M ANUFACTURII* G
^**
«—--"**
100
100
—
—
—
—
80
80
60
60
—
—
40
40
1
1
1981
1
1
1
1
1
1982
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
1
1
1985
1984
1983
1
1
1
1
1
1987
1986
1
1
1^ Vl
J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY
J/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1
1989
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda
Industries surveyed quarterly
Nonmanufacturing
Manufacturing
Period
1980
1981...
1982
1983
1984...
1985
1986
1987
1988 4
1989 4
1987:
I
n
m
rv
1988- I
n
m4
IV
1989- I 4 4
II
All
industries
Total
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
387.13
379.47
389.67
430.17
455.96
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
145.90
164.54
171.67
376.73
380.66
394.54
406.82
Nonmanufacturing
Surveyed
quarterly
Nondurable
goods
Total '
Mining
Transportation
Public
utilities
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.27
69.14
71.01
77.75
79.29
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.21
73.56
74.88
86.79
92.38
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
243.78
265.63
284.30
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
11.22
11.39
12.57
11.22
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
18.02
18.80
18.85
21.36
24.81
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.81
46.38
44.88
46.39
47.15
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.94
160.38
168.65
185.32
201.12
141.50
141.71
148.20
152.21
70.79
69.05
71.96
72.28
70.70
72.66
76.24
79.92
235.23
238.95
246.34
254.61
10.38
11.02
11.81
12.32
18.77
18.12
19.19
19.34
43.95
43.95
45.29
46.38
162.13
165.86
170.05
176.56
141.50
141 71
148.20
152.21
235.23
23895
246.34
254.61
412.02
426.94
436.01
445.73
158.60
161.69
168.91
168.97
75.70
76.87
79.48
78.97
82.90
84.82
89.43
90.00
253.43
265.25
267.10
276.76
12.59
13.26
12.47
11.97
20.43
20.72
22.17
22.12
44.61
45.43
46.70
48.80
175.79
185.83
185.76
193.87
158.60
161 69
16891
168 97
253.43
265 25
267 10
27676
466.76
473.55
177.81
179.48
84.25
84.00
93.56
95.48
288.95
294.07
11.62
11.81
26.90
25.83
49.35
50.51
201.07
205.92
177 81
179.48
288 95
294.07
Durable
goods
1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.
10
Total
nonfarm
business 2
Commercial
and
other
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
431.94
427.23
440.66
Manufacturing
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
145.90
164.54
171.67
Total
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
278.46
284.54
294.77
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
243.78
265.63
284.30
Surveyed
annually>
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
44.81
47.75
50.99
3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1988, corrected for
biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
jln January, civilian employment rose 702,000 and unemployment rose 162,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
124
124
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
-"""'
avimkN LABOR FOR rp
116
_^,^-— 1
116
V_^
r—'
^"^-^-j
«•'"'"*•. •*- v--
\.
-.-*"
,—"-'"
112
^^**"
104
100
'
„
.
.
'
^^\
108
.--'*-'
r
^
112
120
""""1
120
,•-•"
s~
/-'"" •-r
,
-'
108
104
CIVILIAN '
EMPLOYMENT
100
96
96
**
^v
^
^
\^\
12
—
^^ ^\
^
8
*~n
i
"'
12
8
—
\
U MEMPLOYMEN r
4
0
\\ \\ \ \ \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 U 1 F IF M
1982
1981
4
1 1 1 T i f n 1 1 T| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i n 1 1 1 M n i I T 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 mnliim
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
'16 YEARS^ OF AGE A ND OVER
SOURCE. OEPARTMEN r OF LABOR
J | J || | 11I 1 0
1
1989
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
Labor force
including
resident
Armed
Forces
1984
1985
1986*
1987
1988
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
182,293
184,490
186,322
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,706
1,737
1,709
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
119,540
121,602
123,378
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
111,303
114,177
116,677
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
117,834
119,865
121,669
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
109,597
112,440
114,968
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,163
3,208
3,169
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
106,434
109,232
111,800
1988:
Jan
Feb.
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
185,571
185,705
185,847
185,964
186,088
186,247
186,402
186,522
186,666
186,801
186,949
187,098
1,749
1,736
1,736
1,732
1,714
1,685
1,673
1,692
1,704
1,687
1,705
1,696
122,784
122,901
122,672
123,060
122,917
123,209
123,331
123,692
123,688
123,778
124,215
124,259
115,804
116,009
115,865
116,392
116,117
116,686
116,707
116,895
117,074
117,260
117,652
117,705
121,035
121,165
120,936
121,328
121,203
121,524
121,658
122,000
121,984
122,091
122,510
122,563
114,055
114,273
114,129
114,660
114,403
115,001
115,034
115,203
115,370
115,573
115,947
116,009
3,256
3,200
3,181
3,187
3,110
3,121
3,060
3,142
3,176
3,238
3,238
3,193
1989:
Jan
187,340
1,696
125,124
118,407
123,428
116,711
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1
Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces
Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor force
Civilian
Labor
force
participation
rate
(percent) 2
Employment/
population
ratio
(percent) 2
Total
15
weeks
and
over
4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
5,345
5,122
4,965
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425
6,701
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,232
1,983
1,610
63.8
63.9
59.2
59.0
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
65.3
65.6
65.9
57.8
57.9
59.5
60.1
60.7
61.5
62.3
110,799
111,073
110,948
111,473
111,293
111,880
111,974
112,061
112,194
112,335
112,709
112,816
5,113
5,101
5,087
4,953
4,676
5,073
5,102
4,972
4,862
4,727
4,819
5,033
6,980
6,892
6,807
6,668
6,800
6,523
6,624
6,797
6,614
6,518
6,563
6,554
1,728
1,732
1,693
1,582
1,614
1,543
1,619
1,636
1,568
1,554
1,502
1,495
65.8
65.9
65.7
65.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
66.1
66.1
62.0
62.1
62.0
62.2
62.0
62.3
62.3
62.3
62.4
62.4
62.6
62.6
3,300 113,411
4,837
6,716
1,512
66.5
62.9
Agricultural
Total
' Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fullme work, etc.
2
Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
Unemployment
Civilian employment
Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
Total
Part time
for
economic
reasons 1
'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
gource. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In January, both the overall unemployment rate and the civilian unemployment rate rose slightly, to 5.4 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
15
10
1989
1985
'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)
Period
Unemployment
rate,
all
workers '
1980
1981
1982
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5
7.4
All
civilian
workers
7.1
7.6
9.7
By selected groups
By race
By sex and age
Both
sexes
16-19
years
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
Married
men,
spouse
present
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and
over
5.9
6.3
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
6.2
5.4
4.9
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
18.3
16.9
15.3
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.3
4.7
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
13.1
11.6
10.4
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
14.5
13.0
11.7
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
6.6
5.8
5.2
4.2
4.3
65
6.5
4,6
4.3
4.4
3.9
3.3
White
Black
and
other
Black
Women
who
maintain
families
Fulltime
workers
Parttime
workers
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4
9.8
9.2
8.1
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8
6.6
5.8
5.2
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.4
7.6
Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2
7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9
7.1
6.9
6.1
5.4
9.6
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.2
5.5
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.4
4.8
Oct
Nov
Dec
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
16.0
15.5
16.4
15.8
15.6
14.1
15.1
15.4
15.5
15.0
14.1
14.8
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
10.9
11.2
11.3
10.6
10.9
10.3
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.8
10.0
10.0
12.2
12.4
12.5
12.0
12.1
11.7
11.5
11.4
10.9
11.2
11.2
11.6
55
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.0
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.1
8.8
8.3
7.5
8.5
8.4
7.9
8.5
7.5
8.1
7.9
7.7
8.2
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.1
8.3
7.9
7.8
7.5
7.7
7.7
8.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.0
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.1
1989: Jan
5.4
5.4
4.6
4.7
16.4
4.6
10.6
12.0
5.2
3.1
8.0
5.0
7.9
6.2
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost bv the unemployed and persons on part time for economie reason
cent of potentially available labor foree hours.
12
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
8.6
8.1
7.9
7.1
6.3
6.2
6.3
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In January, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks rose, while the
percentages for 5-14 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell. Both the mean and the median
duration of unemployment fell.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
70
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60
-
50
yW-v
JOB LOSERS
40
REENTRANTS
30
A /X~
v
"
20
OB LEAVERS
10
NEW ENTRANTS
1985
1986
1987
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
Percent distribution
Number of
weeks
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
31.0
29.6
30.0
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
12.7
12.7
12.0
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
14.4
14.0
12.1
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
15.0
14.5
13.5
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
6.9
6.5
5.9
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
48.9
48.0
46.1
44.2
44.7
44.9
46.6
45.5
47.3
44.9
46.8
47.4
47.4
47.6
46.2
31.4
30.2
30.2
29.6
30.6
29.2
30.7
29.0
28.8
28.5
29.5
31.1
11.9
12.2
12.5
11.4
11.7
11.4
12.4
12.3
11.8
12.2
12.0
11.5
12.6
12.9
12.4
12.4
12.2
12.1
11.9
11.9
12.1
11.9
10.9
11.2
14.2
14.1
13.8
13.5
13.8
13.2
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.4
12.6
12.8
6.3
6.3
6.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.2
5.9
5.7
47.0
30.7
11.2
11.1
12.7
Less
than
5
weeks
5-14
weeks
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425
6,701
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
41.9
43.7
46.0
Got
Nov
Dec .
6,980
6,892
6,807
6,668
6,800
6,523
6,624
6,797
6,614
6,518
6,563
6,554
Jan
6,716
State
programs
Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution
Duration of unemployment
Job
leavers
Reentrants
Newentrants
11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
12.3
13.0
14.7
25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
26.2
26.6
27.0
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.2
5.6
5.8
45.4
46.0
45.7
44.7
47.4
46.7
46.1
46.2
46.7
45.9
46.2
46.5
14.9
14.0
15.5
14.8
13.9
14.5
13.8
14.6
14.9
15.3
14.7
15.1
27.2
27.7
26.1
27.2
26.7
26.6
28.1
27.3
26.8
27.2
26.9
26.2
12.4
12.4
12.7
13.3
12.0
12.2
11.9
11.9
11.5
11.6
12.2
12.1
5.7
46.4
14.7
27.3
11.6
Job
losers
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) '
Weekly average, thousands
1980
1981
1982 ..
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mav
July
1989:
1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also inc udes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
2,611
2,650
2,332
488
460
583
438
377
396
378
328
3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,561
2,693
2,746
2,401
2,222
'2,179
'2,114
' 2,087
' 2,051
'2,050
' 2,082
' 2,069
'2,025
'1,972
'1,989
'2,032
'344
r
322
'308
'305
'311
r
.304
'327
'305
'293
'296
'301
'309
2,870
2,775
2,536
2,208
1,949
1,877
2,044
1,905
1,722
1,667
1,856
2,174
2,061
293
r
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adniinistration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 408,000 in January.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
no
100
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
90
22
80
20
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
70
18
60
20
50
~^—
MANUFACTURING
\
_^i—-~*""~~^1
18
40
(it 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ik
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
30
11111111111
20'
1985
CONSTRUCTION
111111111 n 111 M 111111 111111111 ilN
1987
1986
1988
1111111111 11111111111 111 n 111 in
1989
1985
1986
111 M 111111 11111111111
1987
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1989
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries
Goods-producing industries
Period
Total
nonagricultural
employment
Manufacturing
Total 2
Construction
Total
Durable
goo s
Nondurable
goods
Total
Transportation
and
public
utilities
Wholesale
trade
^Retail
trade
Government
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
Services
Total
Federal
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r
90,406
91,156
89,566
90,200
94,496
97,519
99,525
102,310
106,039
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,727
24,859
24,558
24,784
25,565
4,346
4,188
3,905
3,948
4,383
4,673
4,816
4,998
5,294
20,285
20,170
18,781
18,434
19,378
19,260
18,965
19,065
19,538
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,732
11,505
11,490
11,230
11,218
11,516
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702
7,873
7,770
7,734
7,847
8,022
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,866
69,769
72,660
74,967
77,525
80,475
5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,159
5,238
5,255
5,385
5,584
5,275
5,358
5,278
5,268
5,555
5,717
5,753
5,872
6,156
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,545
17,356
17,930
18,509
19,206
5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,689
5,955
6,283
6,549
6,679
17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,797
22^000
23,053
24,196
25,464
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
16,024
16,394
16,693
17,015
17,387
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
2,899
2,943
2,972
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June ...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
Oct
Nov r..
Dec r..
104,262
104,729
105,020
105,281
105,489
106,057
106,271
106,425
106,737
106,973
107,419
107,640
25,180
25,271
25,330
25,435
25,466
25,592
25,663
25,639
25,648
25,743
25,849
25,892
5,083
5,150
5,192
5,238
5,237
5,308
5,330
5,340
5,365
5,366
5,413
5,436
19,369
19,390
19,405
19,460
19,490
19,544
19,593
19,560
19,549
19,648
19,714
19,737
11,393
11,404
11,411
11,459
11,477
11,515
11,566
11,547
11,537
11,595
11,637
11,650
7,976
7,986
7,994
8,001
8,013
8,029
8,027
8,013
8,012
8,053
8,077
8,087
79,082
79,458
79,690
79,846
80,023
80,465
80,608
80,786
81,089
81,230
81,570
81,748
5,499
5,513
5,530
5,543
5,556
5,582
5,598
5,605
5,618
5,631
5,658
5,667
6,010
6,035
6,061
6,089
6,115
6,148
6,174
6,192
6,219
6,246
6,275
6,300
18,927
19,045
19,050
19,093
19,130
19,205
19,261
19,279
19,291
19,327
19,401
19,427
6,633
6,636
6,651
6,650
6,656
6,679
6,684
6,689
6,692
6,708
6,725
6,743
24,795
24,975
25,078
25,163
25,216
25,472
25,561
25,662
25,737
25,826
25,947
26,065
17,218
17,254
17,320
17,308
17,350
17,379
17,330
17,359
17,532
17,492
17,564
17,546
2,973
2,972
2,970
2,963
2,957
2,951
2,951
2,956
2,989
2,989
2,989
2,999
1989: Jan p .. 108,048
26,040
5,538
19,783
11,672
8,111
82,008
5,713
6,333
19,560
6,735
26,139
17,528
3,003
1
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who
received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived
from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, baet
14
weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of tht
working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing
establishments.
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY
EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average groas weekly earnings
Average gross hourly
earnings
Average weekly hours
Total
private
nonagri-1
cultural
Period
Overtime
Total
private
nonagrieultural 1
Manufacturing
1977
dollars 2
Manufacturing
Construction
Retail
trade
$172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
172.78
170.42
171.07
169.28
168.29
$288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
374.03
386.37
396.01
406.31
417.99
$367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
458.51
464.46
466.75
479.68
491.56
$147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
176.08
178.41
183.33
6.9
168.43
168.28
' 167. 25
169.36
168.41
167.89
169.06
166.82
167.68
' 169.03
' 167.77
167.21
411.82
411.23
411.05
416.53
416.15
418.40
417.99
418.20
422.71
423.54
423.95
421.68
476.38
478.19
487.62
491.34
485.42
495.22
491.23
489.72
492.91
499.05
500.89
492,18
179.80
180.42
180.38
182.50
182.12
183.04
185.47
183.28
183.23
186.00
186.18
186.53
3.1
2.8
2.4
4.2
3.1
3.3
4.2
2.8
4.2
4.1
r
3.3
3.9
-.9
-1.0
-1.3
.4
-.7
-.5
.2
-1.2
-.0
— .1
T
—9
-.5
168.21
423.53
493.13
188.40
4.3
-.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7
41.0
41.1
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.9
$6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.32
8.57
8.76
8.98
9.29
$7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.19
9.54
9.73
9.91
10.17
$235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
304.85
312.50
323.29
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r
34.7
34.8
34.6
34.9
34.7
34.7
34.9
34.6
34.7
34.9
34.8
34.7
41.1
41.0
40.9
41.2
41.0
41.1
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.2
41.2
40.9
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.9
9.14
9.13
9.16
9.23
9.27
9.27
9.32
9.32
9.37
9.43
9.42
9.44
10.02
10.03
10.05
10.11
10.15
10.18
10.17
10.20
10.26
10.28
10.29
10.31
317.16
317.72
316.94
322.13
321.67
321.67
325.27
322.47
325.14
329.11
327.82
327.57
Jan"
34.9
41.0
3.9
9.50
10.33
331.55
1981
1982
1983.
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
July
1
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
2
Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical
' workers (on a 1977=100 base).
3
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
Percent change from a
year earlier, total
private
nonagrieuJtura? 3
Current
dollars
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.2
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.8
1980
1989:
Total
Current dollars
Total private
nonagricultural '
Manufacturing
T
1977
dollars
Current
dollars
-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.3
2.1
1.9
2.5
3.5
1.9
.9
-1.4
.4
-1.0
-.6
NOTE.—The previously published adjusted hourly earnings index has been discontinued.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
[Not seasonally adjusted]
• —
-•
—-
—
Percent change from
Index (June 1981 = 100)
12 months earlier
3 months earlier
Period
1980- Dec
1981- Dec
1982198319841985198619871988-
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1986- Mar
.
Sept .
Dec
1987- Mar
Dec
1988:
Mar
Sept
Dec
1
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
94.7
104.0
110.7
117.0
122.7
127.5
131.6
136.0
142.6
95.4
103.8
110.3
115.8
120.6
125.6
129.5
133.8
139.3
93.0
104.3
111.7
120.0
127.9
132.4
136.9
141.7
151.3
2.1
2.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
.6
.6
.7
1.0
2.0
1.8
1.2
1.1
1.2
.6
.5
.6
1.0
2.2
2.3
1.5
1.3
1.4
.5
.6
1.0
1.1
9.8
9.8
6.4
5.7
4.9
3.9
3.2
3.3
4.9
9.0
8.8
6.3
5.0
4.1
4.1
3.1
3.3
4.1
11.8
12.2
7.1
7.4
6.6
3.5
3.4
3.5
6.8
128.9
129.0
130.8
131.6
126.8
129.9
128.8
129.5
134.2
134.8
136.1
136.9
1.1
.8
.7
.6
1.0
.9
.7
.5
1.4
.4
1.0
.6
3.8
3.8
3.2
3.2
3.9
3.7
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.4
132.9
133.8
135.1
136.0
130.8
131.7
133.0
133.8
138.1
139.3
140.3
141.7
1.0
.7
1.0
.7
1.0
.7
1.0
.6
.9
.9
.7
1.0
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.3
2.9
3.3
3.1
3.5
138.1
139.8
141.2
142.6
135.1
136.6
137.9
139.3
146.1
148.2
149.7
151.3
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
3.1
1.4
1.0
1.1
3.9
4.5
4.5
4.9
3.3
3.7
3.7
4.1
5.8
6.4
6.7
6.8
Benefits
Employer costs for employee benefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of tabor, free from the
l
Total
compensation
Wages and
Benefits '
Total
compensation
Wages and
salaries
Benefits
2
influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.
Data exclude farm and household workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
IS
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of
all persons
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Output '
Business
sector
Hours of 2all
persons
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Compensation per
hour 3
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real compensation
per hour 4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit labor costs
Implicit price
deflator 5
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
99.3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.5
98.8
99.8
99.2
102.5
104.6
106.7
108.9
105.5
109.9
119.2
106.7
108.5
104.9
110.1
119.2
107.5
108.2
105.2
106.8
112.9
108.0
108.7
105.7
107.5
114.0
131.5
143.7
154.9
161.4
167.9
131.3
143.6
154.8
161.5
167.8
96.7
95.8
97.3
98.2
97.9
96.6
95.8
97.2
98.3
97.9
132.5
142.7
154.5
156.7
159.1
132.9
144.0
156.0
157.6
160.4
127.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.2
127.8
140.3
149.2
154.3
159.0
1988 p* ....
107.7
110.1
111.0
112.1
106.1
108.2
109.0
110.5
124.2
128.6
133.3
139.3
123.9
128.2
133.0
139.8
115.3
116.8
120.1
124.2
116.8
118.5
122.1
126.5
175.5
183.1
190.4
199.5
174.9
182.3
189.4
198.2
98.8
101.2
101.5
102.2
98.5
100.8
101.0
101.5
162.9
166.3
171.5
177.9
164.9
168.6
173.8
179.3
162.2
165.8
170.5
175.7
163.8
167.8
172.5
177.2
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
IV
IV
IV
IV
101.0
103.8
105.9
108.5
99.7
103.3
104.9
106.5
105.0
113.6
120.8
125.9
104.2
114.1
120.7
125.5
103.9
109.4
114.0
116.1
104.5
110.4
115.1
117.9
158.3
163.6
170.3
178.8
158.2
163.4
170.2
177.9
98.0
98.1
98.1
99.4
97.9
97.9
98.1
99.0
156.8
157.6
160.7
164.8
158.7
158.2
162.3
167.1
150.2
155.2
159.8
163.7
151.4
156.2
161.0
165.5
I...
110.5
110.4
110.0
109.8
108.6
108.4
108.0
107.8
128.4
128.2
128.5
129.3
128.1
127.8
128.1
128.8
116.2
116.1
116.8
117.8
117.9
117.9
118.6
119.5
180.4
182.0
184.0
186.2
179.8
181.2
183.1
185.4
100.0
101.2
101.7
102.2
99.6
100.7
101.2
101.8
163.3
164.9
167.3
169.6
165.5
167.1
169.5
172.1
163.7
165.0
167.0
167.5
165.7
167.0
169.0
169.5
109.9
110.6
111.7
111.8
107.8
108.6
109.6
109.9
130.5
132.2
134.3
136.2
130.1
131.9
134.1
136.0
118.8
119.5
120.3
121.8
120.7
121.5
122.3
123.8
187.3
189.0
191.1
194.0
186.4
187.9
190.0
192.9
101.5
101.2
101.4
102.0
101.0
100.6
100.8
101.4
170.5
170.8
171.1
173.5
172.9
173.0
173.3
175.6
168.7
170.1
171.2
171.9
170.9
171.9
173.2
174.0
112.8
111.8
112.3
111.8
110.8
110.1
110.7
110.7
138.0
138.8
139.8
140.5
137.9
139.2
140.5
141.7
122.3
124.1
124.5
125.7
124.4
126.4
126.9
128.0
195.8
198.1
201.1
203.4
194.6
196.6
199.4
202.1
102.1
102.1
102.4
102.5
101.5
101.3
101.6
101.9
173.5
177.1
179.0
182.0
175.7
178.6
180.2
182.6
172.3
174.7
176.8
178.8
174.2
176.2
178.0
180.4
-0.3
1.4
4
2.1
2.5
-0.4
1.0
-.6
3.3
2.1
.
-1.1
2.1
-3.1
4.2
8.4
-1.2
1.7
33
5.0
8.3
8
1.5
1.1
4
10.9
7.7
8.3
1.4
1.5
11.0
8.3
8.4
1.0
1.8
9.0
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.3
9.7
9.7
6.3
3.5
3.0
1985
1986
1987
1988 p* .
2.1
2.2
.8
1.0
1.4
2.0
.8
1.4
4.2
3.5
3.6
4.5
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
IV
IV
TV
IV
3.0
3.1
1.7
.7
2.4
1.4
1.2
.2
1986: I..
7.7
-.4
-1.4
-.8
8.4
-.8
-1.5
.3
2.7
3.9
.6
3.5
-3.4
1.7
-2.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
..
1985
1986
1987
1986:
n
m
IV
1987:
I...
n
m
IV
1988: I....
n..r
m ....
IV "'..
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
n
m
IV
1987- I
n
m
IV
1988: I
nr
m ....
TV "• ..
.7
-2.8
1.5
5.7
-0.7
.7
27
1.6
6.0
10.5
9.2
7.8
4.2
4.1
10.5
9.4
7.8
4.3
3.9
27
-1.0
1.6
.9
-.2
3.9
3.5
3.8
5.1
2.1
1.3
2.8
3.4
2.5
1.5
3.0
3.6
4.5
4.3
4.0
4.8
4.2
4.2
3.8
4.7
.9
2.4
.3
.7
.6
2.3
.2
.5
2.4
2.1
3.1
3.7
2.8
2.2
3.1
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.4
2.8
2.7
-.5
10.4
3.5
3.6
-1.2
9.8
3.1
3.5
-3.4
7.1
1.8
2.9
-3.5
8.2
1.9
3.4
4.5
5.5
3.8
5.4
5.0
4.3
3.9
5.1
3.2
1.4
.6
1.3
3.8
.2
.7
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.1
4.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
4.9
2.4
4.8
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.3
2.1
8.3
-.8
.9
2.5
8.5
-.8
.8
2.4
.6
-.4
2.3
3.4
.0
-.0
2.4
3.3
3.7
3.7
4.4
4.8
4.3
3.2
4.3
5.1
2.1
5.1
2.0
2.1
2.7
4.6
1.9
2.3
-3.7
4.1
5.8
5.7
-3.8
4.0
5.9
6.1
.1
3.2
5.0
1.1
.4
3.0
5.1
1.2
.0
3.2
3.7
.9
3.7
5.3
6.6
5.7
4.0
5.7
6.8
5.9
3.4
2.5
2.6
5.1
4.0
2.5
2.9
4.9
2.5
3.6
4.6
6.2
2.1
3.4
4.5
6.4
28
-1.2
.8
2.4
-3.2
-1.4
.6
2.6
2.2
.8
.7
5.6
2.1
.2
.7
5.4
3.0
3.2
2.8
1.4
3.3
2.3
3.1
1.8
3.4
-2.4
2.0
.0
5.5
2.4
2.8
2.1
5.6
4.0
3.5
3.6
1.9
6.0
1.1
4.1
2.1
6.6
1.5
3.5
3.7
4.8
6.2
4.7
3.5
4.2
5.7
5.6
.3
.0
1.4
.3
.1
-.5
.9
1.2
.2
8.5
4.4
6.8
.1
6.8
3.7
5.6
1.0
5.8
4.7
4.7
.6
4.7
4.1
5.5
Q
-0.8
1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates baaed primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
16
5
-2.7
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period arid are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
'Data do not reflect revisions of GNP and related items published February 28, 1989.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in January, following a 0.5 percent increase in December. The index for
January was 5.0 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
160
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
140
120
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
240
FINAL PRODUCTS
220
^-^
— *• •>
_
DEFENSE AND
SPACE
__-^
200
r^---.
.—
180
^.^"-
miilmu Illllllllll imilimt
100 llllllllLLL
160
*-*•**
^
140
MANUF/\CTURING PRODUCTION
140 — DURABLE
BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT
160
Illllflllll
P^PT^
120
._---
— y'— -*"*-*
CONSUMER
GOODS
NONDURABLE
nniiiiiii muliim
120 —'H
I I M l l l l M I Illllllllll
100
iimlnm
lllllllljll
100
140
PERCENT*
100
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
~ (TOTAL INDUSTRY)
90
Illllllllll
UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION
imiiTiF";
120
^\
*• *
IV-""
100
v.-<~ V - '
*
V
--
1986
r-
80
r-.''
—,
^—-1
_
-
|im||im Illllllllll Illllllllll
1985
~
1987
MINING
Illllllllll |llll|lllll
1989
1988
70
Illllllllll !lll||lll|| ll|l|llllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1989
1987
1988
1985
1986
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Period
Index,
1977 = 100
1980
1981
1982 ...
1983
1984 ....
1985
1986 .
1987
1988 r
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct r
Nov T
Dec r
1989- Jan
1
p
Output as percent of capacity.
Capacity utilization
rate, percent l
Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100
Total
industrial
production
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
Mining
Durable
Total
Nondurable
Utilities
Total
industry
Manufacturing
100.0
108.6
111.0
103.1
1Q9.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8
137.2
-1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.2
1.9
1.1
3.8
5.7
84.21
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.4
126.4
129.1
134.7
142.8
49.10
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.2
127.6
128.4
133.1
141.9
35.11
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3
124.6
130.1
136.8
143.9
9.83
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
111.1
108.9
100.4
100.7
103.4
5.96
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.7
111.1
108.5
110.3
114.2
80.9
79.9
72.1
74.6
81.0
80.4
79.4
80.7
83.3
79.3
78.2
70.3
73.9
80.5
80.1
79.7
81.1
83.6
134.4
134.4
134.7
135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138.5
138.6
139.4
139.9
140.6
6.5
5.8
5.7
6.3
6.2
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
5.0
5.0
139.4
139.5
140.0
140.8
141.8
142.1
143.6
144.0
144.4
145.3
145.9
146.6
137.9
138.4
138.8
139.7
141.5
141.7
142.9
143.2
143.8
144.6
145.2
146.0
141.4
141.1
141.7
142.3
142.1
142.6
144.6
145.1
145.3
146.3
146.7
147.6
103.3
101.5
102.7
104.7
102.6
103.0
104.3
103.8
103.7
103.1
104.5
104.5
115.2
115.6
113.3
111.0
111.6
113.2
114.4
117.8
113.0
113.9
113.1
114.1
82.5
82.4
82.4
82.7
82.9
83.0
83.7
83.8
83.7
84.0
84.1
84.4
82.7
82.6
82.7
82.9
83.3
83.3
84.0
84.0
84.0
84.3
84.4
84.6
141.1
5.0
147.4
146.5
148.6
103.3
113.2
84.4
84.8
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Materials
Products
Intermediate products
Final products
Equipment
Consumer goods
Period
Total
Total
1977 proportion
1980
1981 .
1982
1983 ..
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r
1988: Jan .. .
Feb
Mar
May
July
. *
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec '
1989: Jan p .
1
44.77
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.3
131.0
132.5
136.8
144.3
141.1
141.6
141.8
142.5
143.5
144.0
145.0
145.8
145.8
146.4
146.7
147.6
148.2
25.52
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
119.8
124.0
127.8
133.9
131.2
131.3
131.2
131.9
132.7
133.0
134.2
135.0
134.8
136.4
136.7
138.0
138.9
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
6.89
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.2
112.5
115.6
120.2
125.3
121.7
120.6
120.4
123.3
125.6
125.3
125.3
125.7
126.3
129.3
129.2
132.1
132.2
18.63
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.1
122.5
127.1
130.6
137.1
134.7
135.3
135.1
135.1
135.4
135.8
137.5
138.5
138.0
139.0
139.5
140.2
141.3
Total »
19.25
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
139.6
145.8
143.6
148.9
158.2
154.3
155.3
155.9
156.5
157.7
158.5
159.4
160.1
160.4
159.7
159.9
160.3
160.5
Business
14.34
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.2
140.2
139.5
144.5
157.5
151.2
152.4
153.3
154.6
156.9
158.1
159.3
160.2
160.8
160.2
161.2
162.0
162.5
Defense
and
space
equipment
3.67
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
156.4
171.4
182.0
188.9
186.0
190.6
191.0
189.9
187.9
185.5
184.6
184.9
184.9
184.5
184.0
182.5
182.3
181.9
Total
12.94
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.7
129.3
136.2
143.4
151.5
148.1
149.4
149.9
149.6
150.4
150.0
151.6
152.3
152.9
154.0
154.2
155.4
156.8
Construction
supplies
5.95
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
119.2
126.4
131.5
138.7
136.8
137.7
137.3
137.6
138.8
137.6
138.4
138.1
138.4
140.0
141.0
141.4
143.4
Business
supplies
6.99
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
133.8
137.9
144.6
153.5
162.5
157.8
159.4
160.7
159.9
160.3
160.6
162.8
164.4
165.2
165.9
165.4
167.2
Total
42.28
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.2
114.3
113.8
118.2
125.3
123.0
122.1
122.5
123.6
123.9
124.5
126.4
126.5
126.5
127.5
128.3
128.7
128.7
Energy
11.69
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
103.9
103.3
99.7
99.8
101.4
101.4
100.6
100.6
101.0
99.5
101.3
102.7
103.2
101.5
101.3
102.2
102.1
100.2
Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Primary metals
Period
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983 ...
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r
1988: Jan..
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
July
Sept
Oct '
Nov T
Dec r
1989- Jan p
5.33
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.3
80.4
75.1
81.3
89.4
86.5
86.4
85.1
85.3
89.2
87.5
91.5
90.8
93.1
94.2
93.2
92.0
94.2
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.
18
Iron and
steel
3.49
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.4
70.4
63.4
70.6
78.3
77.8
77.4
74.2
74.5
78.6
74.2
80.2
78.9
81.4
83.1
81.3
79.8
Nondurable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Fabricated
metal
products
Nonelectrical
machinery
Electrical
machinery
6.46
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.6
107.1
108.0
111.0
121.0
117.1
117.6
118.8
118.8
119.8
120.4
121.7
122.1
122.5
122.6
124.6
125.3
125.6
9.54
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
141.8
146.2
145.0
152.7
170.6
162.9
163.6
164.6
167.2
170.3
171.2
173.1
174.1
174.8
173.8
175.3
176.4
176.8
7.15
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
170.5
168.3
165.7
172.3
180.2
177.4
177.8
176.6
178.7
179.1
179.5
181.5
182.2
181.8
183.0
182.2
182.7
182.6
Total
9.13
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
112.2
122.8
127.5
129.2
132.1
128.6
128.4
130.0
130.4
133.1
132.8
131.9
131.8
132.7
134.8
135.1
137.0
136.4
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
5.25
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
104.4
111.9
111.5
111.8
117.3
109.7
109.3
113.0
114.8
119.6
119.1
116.6
117.5
118.5
121.7
122.9
126.6
125.2
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
Printing
and
publishing
Chemicals
and
products
Foods
2.30
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
114.3
124.1
130.3
137.3
136.3
139.0
137.8
138.0
139.8
136.4
136.6
133.8
133.5
137.5
139.6
141.7
2.79
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.7
100.4
103.1
107.4
4.54
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
146.5
151.4
160.9
172.1
184.3
177.5
178.7
180.4
181.8
180.7
182.3
184.9
186.7
188.0
188.1
188.8
189.5
191.5
8.05
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.6
126.4
132.0
140.2
151.9
147.9
USA
146.4
148.9
149.1
150.5
153.4
154.8
155.3
156.7
157.3
158.1
7.96
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
126.9
130.5
134.4
137.8
142.6
141.2
141.9
141.1
140.3
141.0
141.3
143.3
143.3
143.2
144.0
145.3
145.9
108.7
108.5
108.7
109.2
108.6
109.3
109.4
108.9
109.9
109.5
110.1
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts 3
Private
Period
Total new
construction
expenditures
Federal,
State, and
local
Residential
Total
New housing
units
Total '
Commercial
and
industrial 2
Other
Total value
index
(1982 = 100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)
Billions of dollars
252.4
251.7
260.2
246.6
281.3
328.6
355.7
386.1
398.9
403.4
200.7
193.3
203.6
192.9
227.5
271.0
291.7
314.7
323.8
325.2
116.4
100.4
99.2
84.7
125.5
153.8
158.5
187.1
194.8
195.4
Dec"
395.3
392.5
403.6
396.2
398.5
395.7
404.2
403.2
406.9
408.2
413.6
422.3
321.6
317.8
324.3
318.5
320.2
317.7
324.7
326.8
327.2
330.3
333.3
336.4
195.2
192.1
195.6
192.0
190.4
188.1
194.2
195.4
196.9
199.6
201.8
202.3
1989- Jan "
424.0
342.3
204.6
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988"
109
97
100
100
124
136
150
158
r
!64
r
!61
42.3
46.2
49.4
49.5
48.1
48.5
50.5
49.5
52.5
53.4
51.7
140.8
138.0
139.2
138.5
137.7
136.8
136.4
137.1
138.7
140.4
142.7
143.7
74.2
73.4
76.4
76.8
78.1
77.5
77.1
76.7
75.1
76.1
76.3
77.9
52.2
52.3
52.3
49.7
51.8
52.2
53.3
54.7
55.1
54.6
55.2
56.2
73.7
74.7
79.3
77.7
78.3
78.0
79.5
76.4
79.7
77.9
80.3
85.9
!54
r
!63
M56
r
!58
r
l66
r
!69
r
!60
r
!62
r
!57
164
158
r
!63
r
858
' 1,094
r
910
r
852
r
860
r
904
r
954
r
905
r
88()
841
839
r
942
144.5
81.6
56.1
81.7
155
943
58.5
56.5
53.7
53.8
57.7
64.1
71.4
75.0
78.2
Annual rales
Annual rates
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
Julv
Sept.
Oct r
1
2
3
1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,097
1,016
1,019
942
42.0
46.7
55.0
58.7
53.8
68.6
82.7
78.0
76.5
76.4
89.3
69.6
69.4
57.0
94.6
113.8
114.7
133.2
139.9
139.2
r
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
Includes hotels and motels.
F.W. Dodge series.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes
New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure
Period
Total
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1,805.4
1 620 5
1,487.7
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 '
1 unit
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
1,179.4
1,146.4
1,080.0
2-4 units
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
84.0
65.3
59.0
5 or more units
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1
542.0
408.7
348.8
Units
authorized
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,733.3
1,769.4
1,534.8
1,463.0
Units
completed
Homes sold
Homes for
sale at end of
period *
709
545
436
412
623
639
688
750
671
677
3
576
656
r
665
r
677
'679
r
716
r
701
r
712
r
691
718
658
671
r
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3
1,756.4
1,668.8
1,528.0
397
337
275
253
301
353
346
357
365
367
Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5
7.3
7.7
7.7
Seasonally adjusted annu al rates
r
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec '
1989- Jan
l,391
l,511
' 1,528
' 1,576
' 1,392
' 1,463
' 1,478
T
1,459
r
1,463
1,532
1,567
1,568
r
p
1
1,693
r
l,021
' 1,095
r
l,169
' 1,087
' 1,001
' 1,088
' 1,067
' 1,076
' 1,039
1,136
1,138
1,123
1,203
r
r
r
r
53
58
r
57
r
58
r
53
r
62
r
50
r
59
r
62
63
68
66
71
Seasonally adjusted.
2
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginnir ; 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.
317
358
r
302
'431
r
338
r
313
r
361
r
324
r
362
333
361
379
1,248
1,429
1,476
1,449
1,436
1,493
1,420
1,464
1,394
1,516
1,516
1,566
419
1,507
1,550
1,452
1,598
1,665
1,450
1,518
1,529
1,538
1,533
1,516
1,432
1,517
r
r
704
367
359
372
367
370
367
365
363
r
361
353
364
367
8.0
7.7
7.8
7.3
371
NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data
are for 16,000 places.
Seasonally adjusted housing starts and sales revised beginning 1986.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In December, manufacturing
according
and
trade sales rose
to advance data, retail
sales rose 0.6
1.0 percent
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
800
^^"
of 0.1
percent
in
December.
240
-
. - _ - ,.^r^
\
MANlJFACTURINC AND
TRA )E INVENTO ilES
600
—
-
500
__s~
s
400
inventories rose $7.0 billion. In January,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
-
700
and
percent, following a decline
?•
-*" °~
-
*
r\~
M \NUFACTUR Nf;
M•ID TRADE St kLES
—''V
RETAIL SALES -
120
-
U
100
niiiliini
Illllllllll
300
RATIO*
-
RETAIL
' _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
—
200
1.40
MANUFACTURING
AND TRADE
1.20
Illllllllll
llllllll|ll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1985
1986
1987
1.00
1989
1988
1986
1985
1987
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufacturing and
trade l
Sales
Inventories 3
1989
COUNCSL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Inventory-sales ratio 4
Retail
Wholesale
Inventories 3
Sales 2
Period
2
1988
Sales
2
Inventories 3
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
, Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade *
72,999
61,469
134,468
147,581
69,066
78,515
79,431
88,086
167,517
92,526
88,998
181,524
91,085
94,911
185,996
r
210,361 " 107,095 '103,266
225,146 115,911 109,235
1.67
1.56
1.53
1.55
1.55
r
1.50
1.51
1.49
1.44
1.49
1.53
1.56
1.59
1.61
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1982
1983
1984
1985..
1986
1987
1988 "
1987:
Decr
1988-
Jan
Feb
r
Mar
Apr
June
July..
Aug
Sept
Oct
Novr
Dec p
1989:
1
!
3
Jan
348,747
368,930
408,142
418,605
424,177
451,788
488,503
574,491
590,673
644,906
656,165
655,065
r
707,081
760,757
96,290
100,324
113,390
114,645
116,026
126,736
136,486
128,196
130,445
142,622
147,145
152,887
r
165,588
181,448
464,407
707,081
128,269
165,588
464,943
468,675
476,922
477,768
481,874
488,787
489,235
495,482
495,418
501,906
504,010
508,933
p
See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total
End of period.
20
711,586
714,746
717,249
721,016
725,381
730,916
735,890
743,851
750,261
750,588
753,746
760,757
129,720
131,622
132,885
133,015
133,264
136,289
138,195
139,008
139,682
142,429
141,086
139,953
168,388
170,632
171,732
173,530
173,418
175,001
177,307
179,165
180,278
181,049
180,327
181,448
28,169
32,582
37,836
41,415
44,885
46,592
50,743
89,107
97,364
106,882
113,944
119,791
125,882
134,385
47,965
128,691
r
128,940
130,121
132,259
131,717
132,833
133,617
134,342
134,759
134,341
136,560
138,292
r
138,153
138 913
60,937
64,783
69,046
72,529
74,907
79,290
83,641
r
48,779
49,708
50,480
50,419
50,418
50,709
50,754
50,257
49,797
51,198
52,307
r
52,378
52,441
4
80,726
210,361
107,095
103,266
1.52
1.63
80,161
80,413
81,779
81,298
82,415
82,908
83,588
84,502
84,544
85,362
85,985
r
85, 775
209,824
208,698
208,822
209,550
211,889
213,952
214,795
218,888
222,198
220,127
221,816
225,146
106,377
104,479
103,631
104,349
106,551
107,607
108,020
111,078
114,750
112,525
113,832
115,911
103,447
104,219
105,191
105,201
105,338
106,345
106,775
107,810
107,448
107,602
107,984
109,235
1.53
1.53
1.50
1.51
1.51
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.51
1.50
1.50
1.49
1.63
1.60
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.62
1.65
1.61
1.60
1.63
r
86,472
Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In January, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and unfilled orders rose; new orders fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280, U
SHIPMFNTS
240
200 p
—
\
TOTAL
160
—
—
280
.JX~-i
—
*.
'
80
*— * ' ™
-v"
•"
TOTAL
160"
~
—
"
r
\
200'
NJ
~~
\
|—
~
-
DURAB .E GOODS
120
—
r—^
440 -. ' IKIVFMTORIFS
400
360
—
DUR ABLE GOOD5
-
—
120
NO •4DURABLE G OODS
f
60
miilmii
Illllllllll [||I||||III IIM||[III| Mlllllllll
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
240" IL_NEW(-jpnFR.s
!
200 1 ••—^^
s
^
*^\
-
—
£3
*r_x-^-v
—
RATIC *
2.20
-
2.00
-
1.80
A .^/
p:;:-
^
60
J
niniiiin
1985
ll||lll||II
1986
Mlllllllll iiiiiliiiii
IIII|||IIM
1.20
=
^
I \ 1 1 I 1 1 \ I 11
1 t 1 1 1 1I M 1 1
1985
1986
1989
1988
-
-^
1.40
1987
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
1.60
NDURABLE C
80
iimlmn iimliini iimlmn niuliiiii
IIHlllllll
—
r^~^
DU! ABLE GOODS
12o|
80
60
TOTAL
160
NO ^DURABLE GOODS
1 1 u 1 1 u H i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1
1987
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufacturers' shipments 1
Manufacturers' new orders 1
Manufacturers' inventories 2
Durable goods
Period
Total
Durable
goods
1989
Nondurable goods
Durable
goods
Total
Nondurable goods
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
78,338
87,600
98,581
99,843
100,166
107,770
119,634
113,192
113,069
114,155
113,063
116,836
115,369
125,442
116,112
122,806
119,321
122,791
123,035
r
132, 149
128,545
21,661
22,098
26,243
27,067
26,551
29,707
35,028
33,029
33,867
33,819
31,924
33,746
31,522
35,458
36,213
38,808
34,858
34,623
35,825
r
39,432
40,052
Total
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 2
Manufacturers'
inventory —
sbipments
ratio 3
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 .
1987
1988"
1987: Dec
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
, 3
June
July.
Sept
Oct.
Nov r
Dec"
1989: Jan"
1
2
163,350
171,242
187,869
190,016
188,360
199,170
217,632
207,447
206,283
206,932
211,778
213,036
215,777
218,881
216,698
221,715
221,395
222,917
224,632
230,827
231,613
79,352
84,956
96,623
99,019
99,989
105,291
115,684
111,183
109,125
109,829
112,744
112,521
114,751
116,522
113,122
117,866
118,030
118,439
119,874
r
124,175
124,017
83,998
86,286
91,246
90,996
88,371
93,879
101,948
96,264
97,158
97,103
99,034
100,515
101,026
102,359
103,576
103,849
103,365
104,478
104,758
106,652
107,596
311,827
312,647
334,767
327,496
316,182
331,132
354,163
331,132
333,374
335,416
336,695
337,936
340,074
341,963
343,788
345,798
347,785
349,412
351,603
354,163
357,348
Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
End of period.
200,825
200,406
218,771
214,066
208,313
216,598
233,666
216,598
218,507
219,913
220,523
221,405
222,948
224,000
225,467
226,600
228,214
229,735
231,766
233,666
236,563
111,002
112,241
115,996
113,430
107,869
114,534
120,497
114,534
114,867
115,503
116,172
116,531
117,126
117,963
118,321
119,198
119,571
119,677
119,837
120,497
120,785
3
162,273
174,122
189,791
190,918
188,663
201,966
221,627
209,564
210,202
211,283
211,799
217,029
216,398
228,090
219,877
227,009
222,669
227,095
228,153
238,886
235,826
83,935 314,270
86,522 349,419
91,209 372,586
91,075 383,181
88,497 387,065
94,197 421,243
101,993 r468,860
96,372 421,243
97,133 425,162
97,128 429,513
98,736 429,534
100,193 433,527
101,029 434,148
102,648 443,357
103,765 446,536
104,203 451,830
103,348 453,103
104,304 457,281
105,118 460,802
106,737 468,860
107,281 473,073
1.95
1.80
1.74
1.74
1.70
1.62
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.62
1.59
1.59
1.58
1.56
1.59
1.56
1.57
1.57
1.57
1.53
1.54
Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 1.0 percent from its December level. Prices of
finished consumer foods rose 1.1 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 1.2 percent. Capital
equipment prices rose 0.6 percent. (Seasonally adjusted series revised.)
INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
CAPITAL EQUIPMENT.
110
..w-
100
80
1981
1988
1982
1989
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[1982 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Finished goods
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Consumer goods
Total
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
p
1988- Jan '
Feb r.
Mar r
Apr '.
May r
June r
July r...
Sept r...
Oct r
Nov r
Dec r
1989: Jan
1
88.0
96.1
100.0
101.6
103.7
104.7
103.2
105.4
108.0
106.4
106.4
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.6
108.2
108.5
109.1
109.1
109.4
109.9
111.0
92.4
97.8
100.0
101.0
105.4
104.6
107.3
109.5
112.6
110.4
110.0
110.6
110.6
111.2
112.1
112.9
113.6
114.6
114.8
115.1
115.2
116.5
86.7
95.6
100.0
101.8
103.2
104.6
101.9
104.0
106.5
105.0
105.3
105.5
105.9
106.1
106.1
106.6
106.9
107.3
107.3
107.5
108.2
109.2
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1984.
22
87.1
96.1
100.0
101.2
102.2
103.3
98.5
100.7
103.1
101.7
101.9
102.2
102.7
102.9
102.7
103.3
103.5
103.7
103.7
104.0
104.7
106.0
Durable
91.0
96.4
100.0
102.8
104.5
106.5
108.9
111.5
113.7
112.3
112.7
112.9
112.7
113.2
113.4
113.9
114.5
115.1
114.4
114.7
115.3
116.3
Nondurable
85.1
95.8
100.0
100.5
101.1
101.7
93.3
94.9
97.3
95.9
96.1
96.4
97.1
97.2
96.8
97.6
97.6
97.6
97.9
98.3
99.0
100.3
Capital
equipment
85.8
94.6
100.0
102.8
105.2
107.5
109.7
111.7
114.3
112.8
113.1
113.2
113.4
113.7
114.0
114.3
114.7
115.7
115.4
115.7
116.1
116.8
Total
finished
consumer
goods
88.6
96.6
100.0
101.3
103.3
103.8
101.4
103.6
106.2
104.6
104.6
105.0
105.3
105.6
105.8
106.5
106.8
107.3
107.4
107.7
108.2
109.4
Intermediate materials
Crude materials
Foods
and
feeds J
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Other
105.5
104.6
100.0
103.6
105.7
97.3
96.2
99.2
109.5
89.4
98.2
100.0
100.5
103.0
103.0
99.3
101.7
107.0
95.3
103.0
100.0
101.3
103.5
95.8
87.7
9,9.7
95.9
104.6
103.9
100.0
101.8
104.7
94.8
93.2
96.2
106.0
84.6
101.8
100.0
100.7
102.2
96.9
81.6
87.9
85.5
102.6
102.6
103.3
104.5
104.2
110.7
115.9
114.9
115.3
115.1
113.1
112.1
104.4
104.7
105.1
105.8
106.4
107.0
107.4
107.8
108.2
108.3
108.9
109.4
94.1
95.0
94.6
95.6
96.0
96.9
96.6
97.2
97.1
96.5
94.4
97.6
98.0
100.2
101. 1
101.4
102.0
106.1
108.3
110.9
113.1
113.0
108.5
110.8
87.4
87.4
86.3
87.8
88.0
86.9
85.2
84.4
83.1
82.1
81.5
85.2
114.8
110.4
101.4
113.2
89.6
Total
90.3
98.6
100.0
100.6
103.1
102.7
99.1
101.5
107.1
104.3
104.6
105.0
105.7
106.3
107.1
107.9
108.2
108.6
108.6
109.1
109.6
110.6
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.5 percent not
seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level. (Seasonally adjusted series revised.)
INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
130
130
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
120
120
110
- CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS •
\
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
Illllllllll
60
1981
Illllllllll
1983
1982
1984
Illlllllll
60
1988
1987
1986
1985
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1989
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All items '
Transportation
Housing
All
Shelter
Not
Period
seasonally
adjust-
ed
(NSA)
Hel. imp.3....
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988:
Jan r
Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
Mavr
June '.
July T
Aug r.
Sept
r
Oct '.
Nov r.
Dec r
1989Jan
Season-
Rent-
Food
ally
adjust-
ers'
Total '
Total
ed
100.0
82 4
909
96.5
99 6
103.9
107 6
109.6
113 6
118.3
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
Home-
owners'
Maintenance
Fuel
Appar-
and
el and
other
utilities
upkeep
MediTotal
l
New
cars
Motor
fuel
cal
care
Ener-
gy 2
items
less
food,
shel-
ter,
and
costs
and
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
repairs
7.6
75.4
86.4
94.9
100.2
104.8
106.5
104.1
103.0
104.4
6.4
90.9
95.3
97.8
100.2
102.1
105.0
105.9
110.6
115.4
17.2
83.1
93.2
97.0
99.3
103.7
106.4
102.3
105.4
108.7
4.3
88.4
93.7
97.4
99.9
102.8
106.1
110.6
114.6
116.9
3.1
97.4
108.5
102.8
99.4
97.9
98.7
77.1
80.2
80.9
6.0
74.9
82.9
92.5
100.6
106.8
113.5
122.0
130.1
138.6
7.3
86.0
97.7
99.2
99.9
100.9
101.6
88.2
88.6
89.3
48.7
80.6
88.3
95.1
100.0
105.0
109.0
112.7
117.0
121.9
energy
(NSA)
16.2
86.8
93.6
97.4
99.4
103.2
105.6
109.0
113.5
118.2
42.3
81.1
90.4
96.9
99.5
103.6
107.7
110.9
114.2
118.5
27.8
81.0
90.5
96.9
99.1
104.0
109.8
115.8
121.3
127.1
7.9
19.7
103.0
108.6
115.4
121.9
128.1
133.6
102.5
107.3
113.1
119.4
124.8
131.1
0.2
82.4
90.7
96.4
99.9
103.7
106.5
107.9
111.8
114.7
115.7
116.0
116.5
117.1
117.5
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.8
120.2
120.3
120.5
116.1
116.3
116.7
117.2
117.7
118.1
118.6
119.0
119.5
120.0
120.3
120.7
115.7
115.5
116.0
116.6
117.1
117.8
118.9
119.5
120.3
120.6
120.8
121.2
116.4
116.8
117.2
117.6
117.9
118.2
118.5
118.9
119.3
119.6
120.1
120.6
124.5
125.0
125.5
125.8
126.2
126.7
127.0
127.6
128.1
128.3
128.9
129.4
130.7
131.4
132.6
132.3
132.6
133.0
133.4
133.8
133.8
134.1
134.2
134.9
128.5
129.0
129.3
129.8
130.3
130.8
131.2
131.9
132.5
132.7
133.5
133.9
113.7
114.3
113.3
115.3
114.3
114.7
114.5
115.0
115.3
115.0
115.4
115.8
103.3
103.6
103.6
104.0
104.0
103.9
104.0
104.0
104.4
105.1
105.5
106.3
112.7
112.3
114.1
115.5
116.3
115.9
115.7
113.9
116.0
117.4
117.4
117.7
107.2
107.1
107.2
107.5
108.2
108.4
108.7
109.6
109.7
110.1
110.4
110.4
115.6
115.9
116.1
116.2
116.5
116.6
116.7
117.0
117.7
117.8
117.9
118.1
80.6
79.8
79.5
80.1
81.4
80.9
81.3
82.8
82.0
81.3
81.1
79.7
134.6
135.4
136.1
136.8
137.6
138.4
139.4
140.0
140.7
141.6
142.2
142.9
88.4
88.1
87.9
88.4
88.9
88.7
88.9
89.5
89.3
89.2
89.5
89.2
119.5
119.8
120.4
121.0
121.5
121.8
122.2
122.4
123.0
123.8
124.2
124.6
121.1
121.4
122.1
120.9
129.7
135.2
134.2
116.1
106.9
117.7
111.2
118.9
80.5
144.0
89.9
125.4
1
Includes itema not shown separately.
2
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—a id motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.
also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1988.
NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis.
Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1984.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
OO
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Period
Change from preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Foods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
11.8
7.1
3.6
.6
1.7
1.8
-2.3
2.2
4.0
1980
1981
1982
1983..
1984
1985.. .
1986
1987
less*
14.1
8.6
4.2
-.9
.8
2.1
-6.6
4.1
3.1
7.5
1.5
2.0
2.3
3.5
.6
2.8
— .2
5.7
13.4
9.2
4.1
1.6
2.1
1.0
-1.4
2.1
2.5
11.4
9.2
3.9
2.0
1.8
2.7
2.1
1.3
3.5
Change, month to month
1988:
Jan
Peb
Mar
1.5
-.4
.5
0
.5
.8
.7
.6
.9
.2
.3
.1
0.2
2
.3
.5
.2
-.2
.6
.2
.2
0
.3
.7
0.5
.3
.1
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.9
-.3
.3
.3
1.5
1.5
4.2
2.7
3.8
3.0
4.2
4.2
5.7
3.4
3.4
3.0
2.2
0
6.8
.7
4.4
5.5
8.6
8.9
9.2
6.9
5.4
2.1
0.4
2.0
2.8
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.4
2.4
4.0
1.6
1.9
3.9
2.9
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.7
0
.4
.3
.3
.2
.6
.3
.6
0
.3
.5
3.6
3.6
2.1
2.1
2.9
3.2
3.6
6.1
3.9
3.5
1.4
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.1
2.7
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.4
3.8
3.8
4.3
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.5
2.2
6.2
4.6
6.7
7.4
7.7
7.1
5.6
1.8
1.2
.8
2.2
3.0
2.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.0
2.1
3.9
2.2
2.2
1.4
2.5
2.9
3.2
2.7
2.8
4.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.2
4.0
Jan
1.0
1.1
1.2
.6
7.2
6.1
9.2
4.9
5.2
6.5
5.3
4.4
4.4
May
July
Sept
1989:
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1984.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Housing
Transportation
Shelter
Period
All
items l
Food
Total '
Total '
Renters'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
Fuel
and
other
utilities
Apparel
and
upkeep
Total '
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy
Energy"
Addendum: AH itet is, percent change
(annua rate)
From
previous
quarter 3
From
3
months
earlier
From
6
months
earlier
From
year
earlier
NSA
Change, December to December, NSA
12.5
8.9
38
3.8
3.9
3.8
1.1
4.4
4.4
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
10.2
4.3
31
2.7
3.8
2.6
3.8
3.5
5.2
13.7
10.2
36
15.0
9.9
24
3.5
4.3
4.3
1.7
3.7
4.0
4.7
5.2
6.0
4.6
4.8
4.5
5.1
5.9
6.3
5.0
3.9
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.9
4.6
5.3
4.7
13.8
14.4
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.8
56
1.6
2.9
6.8
3.5
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.8
.9
4.8
4.7
14.6
10.9
1.8
3.9
3.1
2.6
-5.9
6.1
3.0
18.8
6.8
9.4
1.5 -6.5
3.4 -1.7
2.5 -2.4
3.4
3.1
5.9 -30.7
18.7
1.8
2.1 -2.1
7.4
9.9
12.5
11.0
6.4
6.1
6.8
7.7
5.8
6.9
18.0
11.9
1.3
-.5
.2
1.8
-19.7
8.2
.5
9.8
9.4
6.1
5.0
13.5
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9
3.6
4.1
4.3
3.7
3.3
3.8
4.7
Change, month to month
1988:
1989:
Jan '
Peb r
Mar '
Apr *
May r.....
June r....
July '....
Aug T.....
Sept '....
Oct r.
Nov '
Dec '
Jan
1
z
0.4
.2
.3
.4
.4
.3
.4
.3
.4
.4
.3
.3
0.3
-.2
.4
.5
.4
.6
.9
.5
.7
.2
.2
.3
0.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
.4
0.6
.4
.4
.2
.3
.4
.2
.5
.4
.2
.5
.4
0.8
.5
.9
-.2
.2
.3
.3
.3
0
.2
.1
.5
0.5
.4
.2
.4
.4
.4
.3
.5
.5
.2
.6
.3
.4
0
-.1
.1
0
.4
.7
.4
.8
.6
.7
.2
.2
.2
.2
.6
0
.3
0
0.3
-.4
1.6
1.2
.7
-.3
-.2
-1.6
1.8
1.2
0
.3
0
Includes items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,
also included through 1982.
3
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.
24
0
-.1
.1
.3
.7
.2
.3
.8
.1
.4
.3
0
.7
.3
.2
.1
.3
.1
.1
.3
.6
.1
.1
.2
-1.0
-1.0
-.4
.8
1.6
-.6
.5
1.8
— 1.0
-.9
-.2
-1.7
0.7
.6
.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
.4
.5
.6
.4
.5
-0.5
-.3
-.2
.6
.6
-.2
.2
.7
-.2
.3
-.3
0.4
.3
.5
.5
.4
.2
.3
.2
.5
.7
.3
.3
.7
1.0
.8
.8
.6
-0.1
1
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1984.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3.9
4.5
4.5
4.4
3.9
3.2
3.9
3.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.7
4.8
4.7
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in February fell 0.7 percent from their January level. Prices paid by farmers in January
were 1.2 percent above their October level.
INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
PRICES RECEIVED
100
100
80
80
Mill
60
140
120
-
100
1
80
140
120
v_
lllllllllll
60
60
RATIO^
RATIO.!/
1981
^
100
KAIIU
r
-~—,_
.
v
-
-
'
80
-
Mlllllllll
lllllllllll
iiMiliiiii
lllllllllll
llll|lll!ll
urn inn
urn IIMI
lllllllllll
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
60
1/RAIIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[1977=100; not seasonally adjusted]
Prices paid by farmers
Prices received by farmers
Period
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July..
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989- Jan r
Feb
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
Crops
139
133
135
142
128
123
127
138
130
130
130
134
138
142
144
144
143
144
145
149
148
134
121
128
138
120
107
106
125
109
111
112
117
129
136
136
135
133
136
136
140
138
1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates. See also footnote 3.
3
Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarto, and
for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates *
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
Production
items
143
145
141
146
136
138
146
150
149
148
148
151
147
147
152
153
152
151
154
150
159
161
164
162
159
161
170
151
159
159
161
156
150
151
160
148
153
152
155
151
147
147
157
168
158
155
172
162
159
173
163
162
158
157
175
165
163
Katio 2
92
84
84
87
79
77
79
81
79
79
77
80
82
83
84
84
83
83
84
85
85
NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes,
Source: Department of Agriculture,
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Ml and M2 fell in January, and growth in M3 slowed.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
4,000
3,600
4,000
3,600
M3
3,200
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400 i
2,400
M2
2,000
2,000
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
800
800
600
400
1984
1982
1987
- AVERAGES Of DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEOERAl RESERVE SYSTEM
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1988: Jan ..
Feb
Mar
Mav
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989- Jan "
1
M2
M3
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)
Ml plus overnight
KPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
412.2
439.1
476.4
522.1
551.9
620.5
725.9
752.3
790.2
1,633.3
1,795.9
1,954.5
2,186.0
2,367.2
2,567.4
2,811.2
2,909.5
3,071.6
1,991.1
1,236.9
2,443.8
2,694.3
2,982.3
3,201.7
3,494.9
3,677.1
3,918.0
2,327.8
2,599.4
2,853.5
3,155.5
3,523.4
3,830.6
4,137.1
4,340.2
4,689.8
3,868.2
4,244.3
4,627.9
5,161.1
5,910.1
6,719.9
7,576.8
8.282.2
8,992.5
6.8
6.5
8.5
9.6
5.7
12.4
17.0
3.6
5.0
8.9
10.0
8.8
11.8
8.3
8.5
9.5
3.5
5.6
10.2
12.3
9.2
10.3
10.7
7.4
9.2
5.2
6.6
9.7
9.7
9.0
11.5
14.5
13.7
12.8
9.3
8.6
758.4
760.1
763.8
771.2
771.1
776.5
782.5
782.4
783.7
785.4
786.6
790.2
2,930.5
2,950.8
2,969.3
2,990.3
2,999.8
3,013.1
3,023.9
3,029.7
3,035.0
3,042.2
3,059.1
3,071.6
3,701.5
3,731.3
3,755.9
3,779.6
3,794.6
3,815.6
3,838.2
3,850.6
3,859.2
3,876.5
3,898.9
3,918.0
4,376.6
4,406.4
4,436.5
4,475.5
4,504.0
4,521.1
4,565.5
4,585.2
4,592.9
4,615.6
4,648.2
4,689.8
8,327.5
8,386.9
8,452.1
8,513.2
8,572.0
8,631.1
8,690.6
8,756.6
8,821.3
8,876.2
8,937.0
8,992.5
4.2
3.9
4.3
3.7
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.0
5.3
3.7
4.1
3.6
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.1
6.7
7.2
6.5
5.4
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.9
6.4
6.8
7.0
6.9
6.9
7.7
7.5
6.5
5.6
5.2
5.6
5.4
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.0
8.5
8.6
8.9
9.0
8.9
8.7
8.7
8.5
786.2
3,068.8
3,924.3
.9
3.0
4.5
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate.
26
Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2
Ml
L
Debt
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) l
NOTE. — See p. 27 for components.
M
stock geries revised begmning 1959
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syst
M2
Ml
M3
Debt
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
.
"enod
Other
checkable
depos-
Demand
deposits
Currency
Money market
mutual fund
balances
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(BPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
its
(OCDs)
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
1980: Dec * .. 115.2
122.5
1981: Dec
1982: Dec ' .. 132.6
r
1983: Dec .. 146.3
1984: Decr .. 156.1
1985: Dec r .. 167.8
1986: Dec " .. 180.5
1987: Dec r .. 196.4
1988: Dec r .. 211.8
1988:
Jan '.
198.5
199.4
Feb '
r
200.7
Mar
r
202.4
Apr
203.4
May T
r
204.7
June
r
July .
206.4
rvu
207.0
-Aue
&'
208.6
Sept r
T
209.7
Oct
T
210.5
Nov
211.8
Dec r
1 1989:
jan p
213.4
|
Institution
only
NSA
NSA
NSA
0.0
.0
31.3
80.8
105.3
132.2
146.4
179.5
235.8
260.4
282.3
28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
70.2
78.3
77.9
80.3
61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5
208.0
221.1
239.6
15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.5
84.4
89.6
87.6
43.2
379.2
416.9
513.5
572.5
526.3
502.7
289.4
288.1
288.4
290.3
288.1
289.8
290.4
289.9
288.8
288.9
287.7
288.6
263.4
265.4
267.5
271.2
272.2
274.7
278.5
278.3
279.0
279.4
280.9
282.3
82.8
77.9
74.5
75.6
80.4
80.8
77.6
79.9
77.3
75.9
75.4
80.3
225.2
231.0
234.8
235.8
231.8
228.9
229.6
230.8
231.0
231.3
237.4
239.6
94.4
98.7
97.4
91.9
90.0
86.3
84.8
84.0
83.7
84.6
87.4
87.6
525.0
523.6
525.5
524.2
520.5
523.2
522.0
517.7
511.4
507.5
506.7
502.7
284.0
84.8
281.2
|
|
|
Large
denomination
time
deposits 1
denomination
time
deposits '
|
Savings
on s
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Bankers'
acceptances
50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
82.9
76.1
84.9
90.8
105.1
72.3
67.8
68.0
71.1
74.2
79.4
91.7
100.4
109.1
133.5
149.4
183.6
211.9
260.7
300.1
282.3
257.6
286.4
32.1
40.0
44.5
45.0
45.4
42.0
37.2
44.7
40.6
98.8
105.3
113.6
133.2
160.7
207.4
231.0
260.3
335.7
101.3
102.5
103.4
104.4
105.3
106.0
106.8
107.4
107.9
108.4
108.7
109.1
261.1
257.4
255.8
262.5
265.3
258.5
270.0
274.8
275.3
277.0
276.4
286.4
43.7
41.0
41.1
41.4
41.1
40.7
40.7
41.2
41.7
41.3
40.5
269.0
274.2
280.3
287.6
297.8
300.4
309.8
311.3
308.8
312.3
323.7
335.7
Term
repurchase
agreements
(HPs)
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
NSA
NSA
728.6
823.2
851.0
784.0
886.3
882.6
853.9
914.1
1,025.3
417.2
436.6
439.0
487.4
537.7
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
61.9
65.6
84.0
109.1
125.3
417.0 925.4
942.4
418.8
421.5 952.8
423.3 963.4
425.2 971.0
427.6 975.7
429.7 981.0
430.9 988.3
430.5 998.7
429.2 1,009.7
431.8 1,017.8
431.3 1,025.3
487.0
492.3
496.3
499.2
502.4
507.8
514.0
519.4
526.7
532.0
534.4
537.7
109.9
114.2
112.0
114.7
121.0
124.3
125.6
123.8
122.4
125.2
128.9
125.3
85.4
85.5
90.0
89.1
91.8
93.1
96.2
102.3
101.4
99.1
102.2
105.1
427.8 1,035.6
543.7
126.3
101.4
400.2
344.0
356.9
305.6
285.4
301.6
371.0
416.4
431.3
495.1
89.3
242.0
|
Savings
deposits
NSA
261.5
231.5
234.2
238.7
244.2
267.3
303.2
288.3
288.6
j
Small
Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)
260.1
302.5
326.8
327.4
40.6
Cornpaper
I
1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
5100,000
and
,
an more than
t a n $100,000,
10,000, respectively.
respectvey.
NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown
here..
Se
Series
revised beginmllg 1959.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Borrowings of depository institutions
from the Federal Reserve (NSA)
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
1980:
1981:
198219831984198519861987:
19881988'
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept ....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989- Jan
p
Nonborrowed
Required
Monetary
base
r
r
T
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
60,979
59,458
r
59,573
r
59,760
r
60,374
r
60,365
r
60,637
r
61,238
r
61, 090
r
60,995
r
60,956
r
61,055
r
60,979
60,547
59,264
58,376
r
59, 177
r
58,009
r
57,380
r
57,787
r
57,555
r
57,798
r
57,849
r
58,156
r
58,657
r
58,194
r
59,264
58,885
NOTE.—Aggregate reserves and monetary base revised beginning 1959. Data prior to 1988 not
yet available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Nonborrowed plus
extended
credit
60,508
58,748
r
59,382
r
59,487
' 60,004
' 59,894
r
60, 108
r
60,336
r
60,502
r
60,215
r
60,438
r
60,5 16
r
60,508
59,931
59,939
58,163
r
58,440
' 58,832
r
59,515
r
59,325
r
59,750
r
60,231
r
60,137
r
60,024
r
59,894
' 59,936
r
59,939
59,401
275,811
260,856
262,068
r
263,301
r
265,606
r
266,816
r
268,267
' 270,503
r
271,144
r
272,467
r
273,772
' 274,658
r
275,811
276,743
r
Total
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
827
777
1,716
1,082
396
1,752
2,993
2,578
3,083
3,440
3,241
2,839
2,299
2,861
1,716
1,662
Seasonal
116
54
33
96
113
56
38
93
130
59
75
119
146
246
311
376
423
421
332
186
130
76
Extended
credit
3
148
186
2
2,604
499
303
483
1,244
372
205
1,478
2,624
2,107
2,554
2,538
2,653
2,059
1,781
2,322
1,244
1,046
27
BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9 percent in January following a rise of 0.1 percent in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)
2,800
2,400
__
TOTAL
2,000
1,600
2,800
2,400
ALL COMMFRCIAI RANKS
~
—
1
—•
"
__-1,200
LO
w* — -- ~~ "" ""
-
2,000
-
_---
^-——~^^~—
^-
„——
1,600
-
—
"T""'
1,200
4,NS AND LEA:>ES
—
—
800
800
—
—
400
400
U.S. GO /ERNMENT SEC:URITIES
'"
"~"
ff^'
X"""^
,/
200
•=-
:
160
120
t
'"•*
•'
'~n
---~
1981
1983
1982
\
milimi miilum
1984
—
160
Ol HER SECURITIE S
.^'
miilimi M i n i u m I H I l l l l U I
200
•
Illllllllll Illllllllll
1987
1986
1985
' 5EASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; 8OARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
120
1989
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted l]
All commercial banks
Loans and leases
Period
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:
1988:
1989:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Noy
Dec
Jan "....
Total
loans and
securities 2
U.S.
Government
securities
1,239.1
3,307.5
1,401.3
1,553.4
1,722.9
1,908.6
2,089.9
2,233.0
2,398.3
2,264.1
2,281.3
2,304.7
2,328.5
2,348.4
2,360.8
2,374.9
2,373.6
2,387.5
2,398.3
2,398.3
170.6
379.3
201.7
259.1
260.0
270.5
309.3
335.0
360.9
336.4
340.2
343.8
346.5
350.5
348.0
350.5
352.5
355.1
356.8
360.9
360.8
2,403.3
Other
securities
154.7
360.9
165.7
170.6
142.6
181.2
196.1
194.5
190.9
193.7
195.7
196.6
196.1
196.5
196.8
196.4
194.2
195.4
394.8
190.9
186.2
Total 2
913.9
967.3
1,033.9
1,123.7
1,320.4
1,456.9
1,584.5
1,703.5
1,846.5
1,734.0
1,745.4
1,764.3
1,786.0
1,801.5
1,815.9
1,827.9
1,826.8
1,836.9
1,846.5
1,846.5
1,856.3
Commercial
and
industrial
325.7
355.4
392.6
414.1
472.8
499.4
535.6
562.4
599.9
569.3
568.6
578.1
586.3
592.4
598.3
599.4
597.1
600.9
599.2
599.9
605.4
Real
estate
Individual
Security
onN nn
bank
financial
institutions
262.7
284.2
300.0
331.0
376.6
425.9
494.0
588.4
663.2
599.2
604.9
611.3
618.6
625.0
631.4
638.7
644.7
652.0
659.2
663.2
668.2
179.2
182.5
188.2
212.9
253.6
293.7
314.4
327.8
353.6
17.9
23.3
25.2
27.8
33.9
42.0
39.1
33.4
r
36.3
r
42.0
41.2
r
39.6
40.0
39.5
r
38.7
r
40.0
r
36.0
r
37.8
r
37.0
r
36.3
36.4
29.3
29.9
31.2
30.5
31.4
32.6
35.0
31.8
r
29.6
31.8
31.2
30.4
30.9
30.6
31.0
30.8
r
29.8
r
29.6
r
29.5
r
29.6
30.5
1
Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chaartered banks and aver
of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly
comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations
28
333.0
337.0
340.4
342.8
344.4
345.3
347.0
349.1
349.6
350.8
353.6
355.4
otatc
and
Agricultural
political
subdivisions
31.6
33.1
36.2
39.2
40.1
36.1
31.6
29.5
30.8
0.0
.0
.0
3.3
45.8
56.4
58.1
52.2
r
46.8
51.0
50.1
49.6
49.4
49.2
48.9
48.3
48.1
r
49.0
r
48.3
r
46.8
44.7
29.5
29.3
29.4
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.5
29.5
29.7
30.3
30.8
31.3
Foreign
banks
23.8
17.9
14.6
13.3
11.1
9.6
9.6
7.5
r
7.4
7.4
7.8
8.3
7.9
7.9
8.2
8.1
7.3
7.6
r
8.2
r
7.4
7.5
Foreign
official
institutions
Lease
financing
receivables
11.5
7.2
5.9
9.4
7.9
6.0
5.9
5.3
5.6
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.2
r
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.7
10.9
12.7
13.3
13.7
16.1
19.0
22.4
24.6
28.1
25.3
25.4
25.7
26.0
26.5
27.2
27.3
27.7
28.1
28.1
28.1
28.2
of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.
2
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.
Other
21.4
23.1
26.6
31.7
31.2
36.0
38.7
40.5
r
45.4
40.4
44.8
46.3
49.3
51.2
r
52.2
r
53.8
r
52.2
r
47.5
r
50.6
r
45.4
43.0
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
at seasonally adjusted Annual rates]
(Bil/ions of do//ars; quarterly
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Total
Internal
Total
1985
1986
1987
1987- I
II
III
IV
1988- I
II
Ill"
Loans and
short-term
paper
Securities
and
mortgages
Total
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Capital
Credit market funds
l
Total
Other 2
Increase in
financial
assets
tures 3
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
326.0
324.8
375.8
298.5
420.3
492.6
459.2
492.2
474.1
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
285.7
336.3
352.3
357.5
352.8
128.4
124.7
136.4
56.2
134.6
156.3
106.9
134.8
121.3
60.1
70.7
90.7
49.8
77.9
95.8
50.9
193.1
59.8
9.0
34.5
29.4
10.3
52.6
-5.1
5.0
35.4
29.4
51.1
36.2
61.2
39.5
25.3
100.9
46.0
57.6
30.3
68.2
54.0
45.7
6.4
56.8
60.5
55.9
41.7
61.5
368.1
342.1
383.6
303.5
385.8
502.7
435.3
454.3
436.6
238.3
243.7
286.5
256.5
270.7
370.6
342.3
331.5
361.0
129.8
98.4
97.0
47.0
115.1
132.1
93.0
122.8
75.6
-42.1
-17.3
77
-4.9
34.5
-10.1
23.9
37.9
37.5
421.7
474.1
476.5
524.0
346.8
347.9
358.3
358.1
74.9
126.2
118.2
165.9
14.2
76.4
60.3
88.1
75.2
12.6
28.1
1.7
-61.0
63.8
32.2
86.4
60.7
49.7
57.8
77.8
388.0
436.0
446.4
476.0
341.1
345.6
350.9
406.3
47.0
90.5
95.4
69.7
33.7
38.1
30.1
48.1
453.7
486.8
471.2
359.9
363.6
359.7
93.8
123.2
111.5
89.9
73.9
59.1
9.8
-3.6
1.6
80.1
77.5
57.5
3.9
49.3
52.4
401.5
440.0
461.4
385.4
385.1
394.6
16.1
54.9
66.8
52.2
46.7
9.9
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax labilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights fro
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in installment credit outstanding l
Installment credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total
19791980:
19811982:
19831984:
198519861987:
19881988:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec. .
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec p
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov r
Decp
Automobile
Revolving
296,483
297,566
310,682
323,536
367,868
442,538
517,755
571,833
613,022
667,328
112,475
111,936
118,956
124,218
143,799
173,704
209,636
246,109
267,180
290,434
619,258
624,294
629,485
633,336
636,318
644,372
647,993
653,317
653,319
657,226
661,889
667,328
269,883
273,133
276,762
278,567
279,418
282,254
283,359
285,560
284,782
286,107
287,474
290,4,94
53,357
54,894
60,838
66,243
78,667
100,212
122,013
136,381
159,307
185,870
162,065
163,462
165,643
167,356
169,154
172,809
174,927
177,568
178,675
181,277
184,468
185,870
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, chai
month.
' from preceding
Mobile
home
18,207
18,621
20,302
22,833
23,704
25,795
26,834
26,883
25,957
25,610
25,926
25,857
25,732
25,764
25,703
25,852
25,882
25,915
25,746
25,776
25,831
25,610
Other
Total
112,444
112,115
110,586
110,242
121,698
142,827
159,272
162,460
160,578
165,415
34,507
1,083
13,116
12,854
44,3,32
74,670
75,217
54,078
41,189
54,306
161,384
161,842
161,348
161,649
162,043
163,456
163,825
164,274
164,116
164,065
164,117
165,415
6,236
5,036
5,191
3,851
2,982
8,054
3,621
5,324
2
3,906
4,663
5,43,9
Automobile
13,736
-539
7,020
5,262
19,581
29,905
35,932
36,473
21,071
23,254
2,703
3,250
3,629
1,805
851
2,836
1,106
2,201
-779
1,325
1,366
2,960
Revolving
Mobile
home
Other
8,155
1,537
5,944
5,405
1 2,424
21,545
21,801
14,368
22,926
26,563
1,286
414
1,681
2,531
87J
2,091
1,039
49
-926
-347
11,330
-329
-1,529
-344
11,456
21,129
16,445
3,188
-1,882
4,837
2,758
1,397
2,181
1,713
1,798
3,655
2,118
2,641
1,107
2,602
3,190
1,402
-31
-69
-125
32
— 61
149
29
33
-169
30
54
— 221
806
458
— 494
301
394
1,413
368
449
-158
-50
52
1,298
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates rose in February.
PERCENT PER ANNU
PERCENT PER ANNUM
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period
1981
1982
1983 .
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988: Feb
Mar
Apr
May-
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee
1989-
Jan
Feb
3-month bills
(new issues) 1
Constant maturities
3-year
2
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard3 &
Poor's)
Corporate
Aaa bonds4
(Moody's)
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months 1
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
5
Bank)
Prime rate
charged 5by
banks
New-home
mortgage
yields
(THLBB) 6
14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
5.98
5.82
6.69
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
7.06
7.68
8.26
13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
7.68
8.39
8.85
11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
9.18
7.38
7.73
7.76
14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
9.02
9.38
9.71
14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
6.39
6.85
7.68
13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
6.33
5.66
6.20
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33
8.22
9.32
14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
10.17
9.31
9.19
5.69
5.69
5.92
6.27
6.50
6.73
7.02
7.23
7.34
7.68
8.09
8.29
8.48
7.38
7.50
7.83
8.24
8.22
8.44
8.77
8.57
8.43
8.72
9.11
9.20
9.32
8.21
8.37
8.72
9.09
8.92
9.06
9.26
8.98
8.80
8.96
9.11
9.09
9.17
7.55
7.80
7.91
8.01
7.86
7.87
7.86
7.71
7.54
7.58
7.66
7.41
7.47
9.40
9.39
9.67
9.90
9.86
9.96
10.11
9.82
9.51
9.45
9.57
r
9.62
9.64
6.58
6.64
6.92
7.31
7.53
7.90
8.36
8.23
8.24
8.55
8.97
9.02
9.35
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6 50 6 50
8.75-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.50
9.50-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00-10.50
10.50-10.50
6.50-6.50
6 50 7 00
10.50-10.50
10.50-11.50
9.12
9.15
9.13
8.95
9.26
9.17
9.06
9.26
9.10
9.43
9.39
9.55
8.33
8.57
8.49
8.51
8.73
9.14
9.24
9.36
9.42
9.43
9.00
9.05
9.21
9.31
9.33
7.37
7.37
7.57
7.57
7.61
9.56
9.56
9.65
9.70
9.76
9.05
9.18
9.35
9.53
9.87
6 50 6 50
6.50-6.50
6 50 6 50
6.50-7.00
7.00-7.00
10 50 10 50
10.50-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.50
11.50-11.50
Week ended:
1989:
Feb
4
11
18
25
Mar 4 p
1
Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2
30
5
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate {in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of iO years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in February.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX , DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE)
240
220
200
180
240
220
200
~/\
180
160
140
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)
/--
120
\
100
^/
160
\ /-**r~~'
140
/
120
100
^^
^-W
S
80
1
80
^~~~\
\s^
60
60
^J
\\ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40
M 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 it
n. ill. nil
1982
1983
1981
i . 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1\
I 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1I1
11
1 II 1 1 I 1 1 1
1984
1985
. t . . . i . 1 1 . ii . t . 1 1 . . 1 1 1
1986
1987
I 1 I 11 t 1| \ \|
40
1989
1988
PERC ENT
PERC ENT
20
20
15
15
i
..
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
\
10
-^
(S&P)
1
-—
5
0
1
1
1
1
1
1982
1981
1
10
-"
^
^
I
1
1983
1
I
1
1
1984
r
<^
1
1
1
1
1985
1
1
1986
^1^
1 1 1
1987
1
5
1
1
1988
Common stock prices 1
New York Stock Exchange indexes (I lec. 31, 1965 — 513)
Composite
Industrial
Transportation
1
1
0
1989
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A ND STANDARD B. POC R'S CORPORATION
Period
1
Utility
Common stock yields
(percent) 5
2
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10) 4
Dividendprice ratio
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09
136.00
161.70
149.91
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
155.85
195.31
180.95
72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
119.87
140.39
134.12
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
71.36
74.30
71.77
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
147.20
146.48
127.26
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
1,792.76
2,275.99
2,060.82
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
236.34
286.83
265.79
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
3.49
3.08
3.64
1988- Feb
145.13
149.88
148.46
144.99
152.72
152.12
149.25
151.47
156.36
152.67
155.35
173.44
181.57
180.88
176.02
184.92
184.09
179.72
182.18
188.58
183.79
187.75
126.09
135.15
133.43
127.63
136.02
136.49
132.53
136.27
141.93
138.60
144.07
72.89
71.16
69.40
68.65
72.25
71.50
70.67
71.83
74.19
73.83
74.81
124.36
125.27
121.67
120.35
129.04
129.99
130.77
133.15
134.66
129.61
128.83
1,980.65
2,044.31
2,036.13
1,988.91
2,104.94
2,104.22
2,051.29
2,080.06
2,144.31
2,099.04
2,148.58
258.13
265.74
262.61
256.12
270.68
269.05
263.73
267.97
277.40
271.02
276.51
160.40
165.08
194.62
200.00
153.09
162.66
75.87
77.84
132.26
137.19
2,234.68
2,304.30
285.41
294.01
3.56
3.48
3.57
3.80
3.58
3.65
3.75
3.69
3.61
3.70
3.68
3.64
3.59
166.26
166.41
165.05
163.86
201.93
201.70
199.73
198.38
162.51
163.66
162.33
162.16
78.02
78.40
78.07
77.35
137.11
138.14
137.68
136.42
2,333.93
2,324.11
2,300.79
2,286.34
296.67
296.48
2,94.03
291.52
162.66
196.91
160.60
76.85
135.41
2,258.32
288.88
June
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989- Jan
Feb
Week ended:
1989: Feb 4
11
18
25
Mar
4"
1
Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the'stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2
3
4
Earningsprice ratio
11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
8.12
6.09
5.48
7.18
7.92
8.36
3.53
3.52
3.62
3.67
3.72
price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $64.8 billion compared with a deficit of $66.3 billion a
year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200
1,200
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!'
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
OUTLAYS.!/
900
900
800
800
700
700
RECEIPTS!/
600
600
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-fJ
-100
-100
\
-200
/|
1^1981
1
————_
I
1
1982
1983
i
1984
^^
i
1985
i
1986
i
1987
i
1988
i
1989
K
-200
1990^
FISCAL YEARS
I/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Fiscal year or period
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
Gross Fe leral debt
Off-budget
On-budget
Total
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
Receipts
Outlays
or deficit
(-)
Total
Held by
the public
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
298 1
81 2
355 6
3996
463 3
517 1
599 3
617 8
600 6
6665
371 8
96 0
409 2
458 7
503 5
590 9
678 2
745 7
808 3
851 8
73 7
14 7
53 6
59 2
40 2
73 8
78 9
127 9
207 8
185 3
231 7
63 2
278 7
314 2
365 3
403 9
469 1
474 3
453 2
5004
302 2
766
3285
369 1
403 5
476 6
543 0
5943
661 2
6860
705
13 3
49 7
— 54 9
38 2
— 72 7
73 9
— 1200
2080
— 185 6
664
18.0
768
85.4
980
113 2
130 2
143.5
147 3
166.1
696
19.4
80 7
89 7
1000
114.3
135 2
151 4
147 1
1658
— 3.2
— 1.4
— 3.9
4.3
2.0
1.1
5.0
7.9
.2
.3
629.0
643.6
706.4
776.6
828.9
908.5
994.3
1,136.8
1 371.2
1,564.1
477.4
495.5
549.1
607.1
639.8
709.3
784.8
919.2
1,131.0
1,300.0
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989 (estimates)
1990 (estimates)
734 1
769 1
854 1
909.0
975 5
1 059 3
946 3
990 3
1 003 8
1 064 0
1 137 0
1 151 8
212 3
221 2
149 7
155 1
161 5
92 5
547 9
568 9
640 7
6675
708 7
7704
769 5
806 8
8100
861.4
926 2
931 7
— 221 6
237 9
169 3
— 193.9
— 217 5
161 3
186.2
200 2
213.4
241.5
266.9
288 9
176.8
183 5
193.8
202.7
2109
220 1
9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
56.0
68.8
1,817.0
2 120.1
2,345.6
2,600.8
2,868.8
3 107.2
1,499.4
1,736.2
1,888.1
2,050.2
2,193.8
2,285.0
286 7
311 2
353 0
3760
66 3
64 8
214 9
232 8
288 9
309 7
740
769
71 7
78,4
64 1
66.3
7.7
12.1
2 445.7
2,707.2
1,957.3
2,110.6
Cumulative total, first 4
months: 1
Fiscal year 1988
Fiscal year 1989
1
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for January 1989, issued February 1989.
NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January
32
1989, except as noted.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 4 months of fiscal 1989, receipts were $24.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $23.0
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
RECEIPTS!/
400
INDIVIDUAL INrnMF TAXFS
— — ••*•*"""*"""""""*
—
.__
300
300
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
200
OTHER RECEIPTS
J.
100
*•
—===
~
\
0
800
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
.-- — •-"""
400
1
1
1
|
|
..
CORPORATION
INCOME TAXES
200
—*
100
|
1
1
0
.OUTLAYS-!/ .
800
NONDEFENSE
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
NATIONAL DEFENSE
300
300
200
200
100
JOO
1981
1982
1984
1983
1985
1987
1986
1989
1988
1990
FISCAL YEARS
J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFiCE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays
On-budget and off-budget receipts
Individual
income
taxes
Corporation
income
taxes
298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
975.5
1,059.3
334.5
349.0
392.6
401.2
425.2
466.7
61.3
63.1
83.9
94.5
107.0
117.4
265.2
283.9
303.3
334.3
363.9
391.5
73.0
73.1
74.3
78.9
79.5
83.7
286.7
311.2
138.0
149.4
24.9
28.6
97.5
105.3
26.3
28.0
Fiscal year
Total
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989 (estimates)
1990 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 4
months: 1
Fiscal year 1988
Fiscal year 1989
1
National defense
Social
insurance
taxes
and
contributions
Other
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for January 1989, issued February 1989.
Social
security
Net
interest
Other
15.8
19.3
22.8
26.5
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4
86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1
82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6
33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
49.8
52.2
65.8
70.2
75.1
78.9
86.7
94.9
128.2
119.8
123.3
129.3
136.9
136.8
188.6
198.8
207.4
219.3
232.3
246.7
129.4
136.0
138.6
151.7
165.7
170.1
131.8
142.1
125.9
139.4
156.5
130.8
14.1
16.0
24.9
26.0
41.8
43.0
70.1
74.3
50.4
54.4
52.6
61.0
Health
116.3
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
87.9
95.1
102.3
113.6
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
6.4
6.4
7.5
7.5
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
15.7
17.3
18.5
20.5
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
946.3
990.3
1,003.8
1,064.0
1,137.0
1,151.8
252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
298.3
303.0
245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
289.8
293.8
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
10.7
17.3
353.0
376.0
96.2
99.5
93.5
96.6
2.7
1.9
Total
NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January
Income
security
International
affairs
Total
89.6
97.2
104.5
Department of
Defense,
military
Medicare
1989, except as noted.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1988, Federal receipts fell $7.5 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures fell $17.3
billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised data, expenditures rose $48.6 billion; receipts data are
incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1,000
- EXPENDITURES
'
1,000
-^
800
800
RECEIPTS
600
600
400
400
200
200
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)
V
-200
-200
I
1980
1
I
1
1983
1982
1981
1
1
1
1984
CALENDAR YEARS'
1
1
1985
1986
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1987
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government receipts
Period
Total
Fiscal year:
1985
1986
1987
1988
Calendar year:
1985
1986
1987
1988 r
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984- IV
1985: IV
1986- IV
1987: I
n
rn
IV
1988- I
n....
mr
IV
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Total
Purchases
of goods
and
services
Transfer
Payments
Net
interest
paid
Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises
Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
Surplus
or deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
776.8
815.0
901.7
964.8
340.4
357.0
401.6
413.1
74.6
80.7
101.7
109.9
55.9
51.2
53.2
57.0
305.8
326.0
345.2
384.8
962.3
1,027.8
1,058.9
1,106.3
341.5
368.4
375.4
378.3
374.0
394.6
411.1
434.2
97.8
107.4
103.1
108.5
128.3
134.4
139.7
150.4
20.7
22.9
29.6
34.8
-0.1
.0
.1
— .1
-185.5
-212.8
-157.2
— 141.5
788.7
828.3
916.5
973.9
633.1
675.5
742.7
805.3
856.8
871.3
920.0
930.1
944.4
951.0
983.0
975.5
346.4
361.5
405.6
413.4
303.0
291.9
326.0
355.3
378.3
373.8
413.1
413.3
422.3
404.6
425.0
408.3
415.8
76.3
83.9
105.8
110.1
46.4
70.2
69.7
78.8
89.7
100.1
105.0
110.5
107.7
107.2
111.7
113.1
55.1
50.8
54.0
56.7
47.6
53.6
56.2
53.5
51.0
53.0
54.3
53.9
55.0
55.9
55.9
57.1
57.9
310.9
332.2
351.0
393.7
236.1
259.8
290.7
317.7
337.8
344.5
347.7
352.4
359.4
383.4
390.3
397.0
404.0
985.6
1,033.9
1,074.2
1,117.2
835.7
844.7
930.2
1,017.5
1,040.1
1,059.6
1,064.0
1,068.4
1,104.9
1,106.1
1,116.3
1,099.0
1,147.6
355.2
366.2
382.0
380.5
293.2
276.1
326.0
376.6
366.7
372.7
377.5
386.3
391.4
377.7
382.2
367.7
394.4
380.1
399.8
414.2
440.1
347.4
352.5
362.1
385.8
405.4
406.6
413.4
414.2
422.5
434.4
437.6
440.7
447.6
99.7
106.8
102.7
111.5
84.5
86.0
96.3
103.5
102.3
101.9
105.5
101.9
101.4
111.1
110.4
111.5
113.0
130.1
135.4
143.0
154.0
87.2
101.0
125.3
132.7
136.5
139.0
139.8
143.8
149.5
149.9
152.1
154.9
159.3
20.3
25.7
32.4
31.1
23.4
29.1
21.0
19.0
29.1
39.4
27.8
22.6
39.7
33.0
34.0
24.1
33.3
_.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
2
2
.0
.0
.0
.0
-196.9
205 6
-157.8
143 3
-202.6
-169.2
187 5
-212.2
183 3
-188.3
- 144.0
-138.3
-160.4
-155.1
-133.3
-123.5
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
34
Contributions for
social
insurance
Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Consumer prices (1982-84 = 100)
Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
United
States '
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
United
Kingdom
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8
137.2
108.1
1982
1983
1984
1985. .
1986
1987
1988
108.6
97.9
104.3
116.9
123.3
125.1
131.6
119.0
120.3
120.7
124.5
136.1
141.0
140.8
145.7
106
106
104
105
105
106
106
108
108.0
106.2
103.1
104.1
107.6
112.9
114.9
115.6
114.4
112.6
108.5
105.8
109.2
110.4
113.5
118.0
99.8
96.4
98.2
101.7
103.1
107.9
109.4
112.9
82.4
90.9
96.5
99.6
103.9
107.6
109.6
113.6
118.3
76.1
85.6
94.8
100.4
104.7
108.9
113.4
118.4
123.1
90.9
95.4
98.0
99.8
102.1
104.2
104.8
104.9
105.7
72.2
81.9
91.7
100.3
108.0
114.3
117.2
121.1
124.8
86.7
92.2
97.1
100.3
102.7
104.9
104.6
105.0
106.2
63.2
75.4
87.7
100.8
111.5
121.0
128.5
134.4
78.5
87.9
95.4
99.8
104.8
111.2
114.9
119.7
125.6
1987- Dec
133.9
136.9
159.6
111
116.8
116.1
115.2
115.4
120.3
105.1
122.2
105.2
137.4
121.4
134.4
134.4
134.7
135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138.5
138.6
' 139.4
' 139.9
r
!40 6
137.9
137.5
138.1
138.2
139.9
140.0
139.5
153.9
157.4
158.3
157.0
153.3
158.4
156.4
160.8
161.6
160.2
' 165.0
1654
111
111
111
110
112
114
115
115
116
112
116.7
117.7
118.3
117.5
117.8
121.1
116.9
124.6
122.3
126.4
121.1
121.4
123.7
120.5
122.3
125.9
118.5
122.5
'120.8 ' 126.3
120.7 128.0
116.3
113.8
115.6
115.7
116.0
116.5
117.1
117.5
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.8
120.2
120.3
120.5
120.5
121.0
121.6
122.0
122.8
122.9
123.7
124.1
124.1
124.7
125.1
125.1
104.8
104.6
105.0
105.5
105.6
105.4
105.2
105.5
106.4
106.9
106.5
106.1
122.4
122.7
123.0
123.6
123.9
124.3
124.7
125.1
125.3
125.6
125.8
126.0
105.4
105.6
105.7
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
138.1
138.5
139.1
139.6
140.0
140.4
140.8
141.4
142.1
143.2
144.4
121.4
121.9
122.3
124.3
124.8
125.3
125.4
126.8
127.4
128.7
129.3
129.6
121.1
125.7
1980
1981
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May .
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989: Jan"
1
'140.8
141.0
' 140.4
139.9
r
l!6.3
" 117.0
r
l!7.4
l!7.8
r
r
r
118.2
l!8.8
l!8.2
r
118.1
141 1
Data relate to all urban cons
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
General merchandise imports (customs value) 3
Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) *
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
Other 2
15.7
16.8
20.6
22.9
21.7
24.6
29.4
14.3
13.4
13.3
12.6
14.2
17.7
23.1
20.7
20.5
24.0
27.3
35.9
34.6
42.8
8.2
2.3
1.6
8.7
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.3
8.5
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
10.1
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.3
Industrial
supplies
and
materials
ital
goods
except
automotive
322.2
31.3
30.9
31.5
24.0
22.3
24.3
32.4
61.7
56.7
61.7
58.5
57.3
66.7
85.2
72.7
67.2
72.0
73.9
75.8
86.2
109.3
1987: Dec...
24.2
2.0
6.5
1988:
24.5
24.5
26.9
26.0
27.5
26.3
26.5
27.5
28.0
27.8
27.5
29.2
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.8
6.6
6.6
7.7
7.3
7.1
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.3
6.6
6.9
7.6
Period
Total 2
216.4
1982
1983
1984
205.6
224.0
1985.. .
4
218.8
1986
1987
1988
4
227.2
254.1
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov r.
Dec
1
Foods,
feeds,
and
beverages
Cap-
Automotive
vehicles,
parts,
and
en-
gines
4
Automotive
vehicles,
parts,
and
engines
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
Other
General
merchandise
imports
(c.i.f.
value)
33.3
40.8
53.5
66.8
78.2
85.2
87.9
39.7
44.9
60.0
68.3
79.4
88.7
96.1
6.5
6.3
7.8
9.4
10.4
12.1
12.8
254.9
269.9
346.4
352.5
382.3
424.4
459.6
8.0
7.6
8.1
1.1
37.9
-12.4
-13.8
7.5
8.6
8.4
7.9
8.1
9.0
7.8
8.9
8.7
8.1
9.1
9.1
6.8
7.6
7.5
7.2
6.5
7.4
6.6
7.3
7.9
7.7
7.5
8.2
7.5
8.4
7.8
7.3
7.6
8.3
7.5
8.5
8.1
7.7
8.4
9.0
.9
.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
35.8
38.9
38.6
36.3
37.2
39.5
36.0
39.8
38.7
38.1
39.8
41.1
-9.8
-13.2
-9.8
-8.8
-8.3
-11.7
-8.0
-10.6
-9.2
-8.8
-10.7
-10.2
-11.3
— 14.4
-11.7
-10.3
-9.8
-13.2
-9.5
-12.3
-10.7
-10.3
-12.2
-11.9
Foods
feeds,
and
beverages
Industrial
supplies
and
materials
ital
goods
except
automotive
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
365.4
406.2
440.9
17.1
18.2
21.0
21.9
24.4
24.8
24.8
112.0
107.0
123.7
113.9
101.3
111.0
118.2
35.4
40.9
59.8
65.1
71.8
84.5
101.2
3.5
36.6
2.0
9.8
3.1
2.6
3.4
3.2
3.8
4.0
3.4
3.4
3.6
4.5
4.1
3.6
34.3
37.7
36.6
34.8
35.7
37.9
34.5
38.1
37.2
36.6
38.2
39.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
9.5
10.0
9.6
9.5
10.5
10.2
9.7
10.2
9.4
9.8
9.8
9.8
Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments.
Includes undocumented exports to Canada.
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical
month basis.
2
3
Trade balance
Principal end-use commodity category
Principal end-use commodity category
Total
Cap-
Exports
(f.a.s)
less
imports
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s)
less
imports
(c.i.f.)
-27.5
-52.4
-38.4
-64.2
-101.7 -122.4
-126.5 -133.6
-138.3 -155.1
-152.1 -170.3
-118.7 -137.3
NOTE. — Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
See Bureau of the Census release FT900, June 1988 for information on the seasonally adjustei
series.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL
TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter, the merchandise trade deficit rose to $32.0 billion from $29.2 billion in the third quarter. Th
deficit for the year 1988 was $126.5 billion. (Data revised.)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
-35
-40
-45
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMiC ADViSERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)]
Merchandise
12
Investment income 3
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
1986- I
II
Exports
Imports
224,269
237,085
211,198
201,820
— 249,749
— 265,063
— 247,642
— 268,900
— 332,422
219,900
215,935
223,969
249,570
319,905
54,113
56,946
m
56,268
IV
56,642
1987: I
56,791
II
59,864
m
64,902
IV
68,013
r
1988: I
75,140
r
n
79,443
m ".... r81,674
IV.... 83,648
1
— 338,083
— 368,516
— 409,850
— 446,430
— 89,546
-90,807
-92,989
-95,174
-96,662
-99,416
-104,567
-109,205
r
- 110,327
r
- 109,595
r
- 110,844
— 115,664
Net balance
Receipts
72,506
86,411
83,549
— 67,080 77,251
— 112,522 85,908
— 122,148 88,837
— 144,547 90,110
— 160,280 103,756
— 25,480
— 27,978
— 36,444
— 126,525
— 35,433
-33,861
-36,721
-38,532
-39,871
-39,552
-39,665
— 41,192
r
-35,187
r
- 30, 152
' -29,170
— 32,016
24,352
22,248
21,845
21,667
24,791
22,429
23,289
33,248
26,554
23,426
26,830
Payments
— 42,120
— 52,329
— 54383
— 52,376
— 67,419
62 901
— 66^968
— 83,381
3
36
30,386
34,082
28,666
24,875
18,489
25,936
23,142
20,375
17 357
6,995
4,715
-17^533
6,116
-15,729
5,317
-16,350
5,076
-19,715
1,692
-20,737
1,067
-22,222
-20,709 12,539
1,159
-25,395
-25,366 — 1,940
-337
-27,167
Excludes military.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
2
Net
Net
military
transactions
— 2,237
Net
travel and
transportation
receipts
— 997
144
— 1,183
— 992
— 274
— 243 — 4,227
— 2,099 - 8,604
— 3,431 — 10,049
— 4,372 — 9,344
— 2,368 — 10,281
— 1,408
-1,283
-1,076
-605
-78
-179
-851
-1,261
-1,033
-914
-934
-2,456
-2,070
— 2,407
-2,410
-2,597
-2,516
-2,521
— 2,648
-2,121
-1,676
-1,463
Other
services,
net3
Balance on
goods and
services
Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1
7,793
9,278
9,466
14,344
278
— 7,593
— 7,460
— 8,956
9,320
9,908 — 36,766
9,760 — 94,975
9,600 — 100,093
11,600 -123,520
12,035 — 140,519
2,817
2,870
2,800
3,112
2,813
2,828
2,983
3,412
3,362
3,693
3,491
— 9,480
— 12,102
— 15,010
— 15,308
— 13,445
1,873
6,884
-8,679
—46,246
- 107,077
— 115,103
-138,828
— 153,964
— 2,972
-4,085
-4,249
-4,003
-2,967
-3,125
-2,980
-4,373
-3,121
-2,751
-3,118
— 32,457
-33,714
-35,537
-37,121
-37,624
-40,852
-41,967
-33,523
-36,938
-33,739
-30,894
— 29,485
-29,629
-31,288
-33,118
-34,657
-37,727
-38,987
-29,150
-33,817
-30,988
-27,776
NOTE.—Merchandise trade data revised; other data to be revised later.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Balance
on current
account
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $27.0 billion in the third quarter,
(compared with an increase of $13.3 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners and international
"financial institutions reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $30.4 billion in the third
quarter, compared with an increase of $31.1 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONSOF DOLLARS*
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
80
80
CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
-20
-20
ABROAD, NET
-40
-40
-60
-60
1988
1980
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase /capit
Period
Total
Other U.S.
Government
assets
U.S. official
reserve
assets, net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
42,615
78,072
90,154
79,023
99,481
131,096
185,746
166,522
- 15,305
-24,320
-24,901
-31,777
39,050
50,128
69,884
62,192
2,719
15,838
15,779
1,171
36,331
34,291
54,104
61,020
9,033
8,100
-8,133
6,565
3,006
-2,786
-3,876
3,655
44,919
46,595
48,087
48,511
9,049
-26,127
-25,576
-43,645
33,100
50,660
71,658
56,072
13,977
10,332
611
20,047
19,122
40,327
71,047
36,025
-6,547
13,071
-4,399
16,342
4,141
-2,615
-4,658
3,138
48,824
45,140
45,070
45,798
5,903
-18,210
-34,181
26,066
65,495
48,027
24,670
5,946
-2,902
1,395
59,549
50,928
4,282
-12,784
22,498
3,747
3585
-5,205
43,186
41,028
47,788
-15,626
-24,515
-26,213
-31,635
n
m
11,072
-22,878
-25,292
-38,891
n
m"
6,591
-18,972
-39,630
-115
16
280
132
1,956
3,419
32
3,741
1,503
39
-7,380
-206
211
-1,592
10
67
-170
252
1,012
-814
-801
1,931
Total
1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the IT.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
15,497
4,960
3,593
5,845
3,140
-1,196
35,507
44,968
n
m
IV
1988: I
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)
58,112
83,032
93,746
84,869
102,621
129,900
221,253
211,490
5 162 -72,802
-5,097 -100,679
-6,131 -110,058
5 006 -43,576
13 685
-5,489
2 829 -25,950
-2,000 -96,303
1,162 -86,297
IV
I
Statistical discrepancy
Other
foreign
assets
-8,155
-5,175
4965
-1,196
3 131
-3,858
312
9,149
1982
1983
1984..
1985
1986
1987
1986: I
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)
Foreign
official
assets
U.S.
private
assets
-86,118
-110,951
-121,153
-49,777
-22,304
-32,636
-97,991
-75,987
1980
1981
1987:
U.S.
official
reserve
assets l 2
Foreign assets in the U.S., net2
[increase/capital inflow (+}]
]
1,152
1,093
24,982
19,942
36,085
11,154
26,760
17,839
15,566
18,461
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186
48,511
45,798
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Page
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Loans and Securities
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Installment Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
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