Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1988
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100th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1988 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1988 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JOHN MELCHER (Montana) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) J. ALEX McMILLAN (North Carolina) JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—S!ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 This issue includes data available as of March 2, 1988. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 1987, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.3 percent (annual rate) or $80.0 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.5 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.7 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 4,800 SEA ONA LLY A DJUSTED A NNU At RA TE5 ,-^ ^^ „ ^^. c NP cu }RE sITC)OL LAR S - IN 4,000 4 ..000 ,—-^ > X' 3,600 X „- 3,200 ^*-^r "-- ~ — ,—*** x f^\ X^..^ ~\ 4 400 ^-—^\ ^"^ --- — - - -. - - "' — G^ p ^^ >OLLAR IN 19 82 : / X ^ " — ^xX^ 2 400 — _ 2 000 \ 19 79 1 ( i 19 81 19 80 , , 1982 1983 \ 19 84 I 1 I \ 1986 1985 19 87 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Exports ind imports of goods ind service Government purch ases of goo .s and serv ices Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense and 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,010.3 4,235.0 4,487.7 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.4 2,799.8 2,967.0 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 641.6 671.0 716.7 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 — 58.9 -79.2 -105.5 -120.3 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 369.9 376.2 427.4 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 449.2 481.7 547.7 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 818.6 869.7 924.3 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 353.9 366.2 380.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.3 277.8 295.2 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.6 88.4 85.7 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 464.7 503.5 543.4 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,000.3 4,219.3 4,442.3 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 409.6 579.8 661.8 14.1 -25.8 -67.9 335.9 364.7 385.7 321.9 390.5 453.6 671.8 676.1 764.5 293.2 276.1 326.0 205.4 221.5 244.1 87.7 54.6 81.9 378.7 400.0 438.5 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 1985: I n m 3,921.1 3,973.6 4,042.0 4,104.4 2,549.9 2,602.0 2,665.4 2,700.1 638.6 648.4 628.6 650.8 -51.5 -77.3 -84.7 - 103.5 376.3 370.6 364.2 368.7 427.7 447.8 448.9 472.2 784.1 800.5 832.8 857.0 336.3 339.4 361.9 378.0 250.2 253.7 265.1 268.2 86.1 85.7 96.8 109.8 447.8 461.1 470.9 479.0 3,899.8 3,955.1 4,044.4 4,101.9 n m 4,174.4 4,211.6 4,265.9 4,288.1 2,737.9 2,765.8 2,837.1 2,858.6 683.4 679.4 660.8 660.2 -93.8 - 100.8 -110.5 -116.9 373.5 371.3 376.6 383.3 467.3 472.1 487.1 500.2 846.9 867.2 878.5 886.3 356.7 368.4 371.2 368.6 266.6 278.2 287.6 279.0 90.1 90.2 83.6 89.6 490.2 498.8 507.3 517.7 4,136.1 4,184.0 4,262.4 4,294.6 4,377.7 4,445.1 4,524.0 4,604.0 2,893.8 2,943.7 3,011.3 3,019.2 699.9 702.6 707.4 756.8 -112.2 -118.4 -123.7 -126.9 397.3 416.5 439.2 456.8 509.5 534.8 562.9 583.7 896.2 917.1 929.0 954.8 366.9 379.6 382.1 395.1 287.5 294.5 299.0 299.9 79.4 85.1 83.0 95.2 529.3 537.6 546.9 559.7 4,326.0 4,404.8 4,501.1 4,537.3 IT 1986: I IV 1987: I n mr IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 2,000.4 G ross privat e dome stic invest nent Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.6 196.4 196.5 Expor s and imports of gOO( s and sen ices Change in business inventories Govern ment pure] ases gooc s and sen ices of Federal State and Final sales Net exports Exports 13.8 42.0 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.9 -84.0 -108.2 -145.8 -135.7 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 365.3 377.4 425.6 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 473.6 523.2 561.3 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 726.9 754.5 773.6 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 324.2 332.5 337.9 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 236.7 250.7 264.1 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.5 81.8 73.7 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 402.7 422.1 435.7 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,600.1 3,699.5 3,778.3 Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 '. 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,607.5 3,713.3 3,820.3 2,249.3 2,352.6 2,450.5 2,496.3 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 454.1 443.8 447.7 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 352.3 390.4 444.4 115.8 159.9 169.6 -59.3 27.0 41.7 11.7 -46.2 -94.8 336.0 355.5 376.6 324.3 401.6 471.4 660.1 642.2 693.2 289.5 266.0 300.5 201.4 211.6 225.3 88.2 54.4 75.2 370.6 376.2 392.7 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 1985: I n m 3,568.7 3,587.1 3,623.0 3,650.9 2,314.1 2,337.0 2,376.1 2,383.2 440.0 457.2 454.1 465.2 172.6 171.2 174.9 179.7 19.5 17.3 -5.7 -1.6 -81.0 -107.7 — 114.9 -129.3 369.7 364.7 360.5 366.5 450.7 472.4 475.4 495.8 703.4 712.1 738.6 753.7 308.4 310.7 332.5 345.3 229.8 232.8 243.3 241.1 78.6 77.8 89.3 104.2 395.0 401.4 406.1 3,549.2 3,569.9 3,628.7 3,652.5 1986: I II HI 3,698.8 3,704.7 3,718.0 3,731.5 2,409.7 2,434.3 2,477.5 2,480.5 453.2 441.0 437.7 443.2 185.9 196.5 201.1 202.2 35.3 28.1 6.1 -123.0 -146.8 -161.6 -151.8 371.5 370.2 379.6 388.3 494.4 517.0 541.2 540.1 737.6 751.6 757.2 771.8 322.1 330.6 332.6 344.6 240.0 250.1 259.8 252.7 82.0 80.4 72.8 91.9 415.5 421.0 424.6 1987: I 3,772.2 2,475.9 2,487.5 426.0 437.9 463.8 463.2 198.2 196.8 193.5 197.3 -135.2 -132.7 - 138.4 -136.4 397.8 414.5 437.1 452.7 533.0 547.2 575.6 589.1 759.6 766.7 771.7 796.3 327.3 332.6 336.3 355.2 257.4 263.5 268.3 267.3 69.9 69.1 67.9 87.9 432.3 IV iv n mr IV . 3,795.3 3,835.9 3,877.9 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,520.7 2,500.9 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 62.3 7.4 -14.4 47.6 39.0 24.6 56.7 408.4 427.1 434.1 435.4 441.1 3,663.4 3,676.7 3,711.9 3,745.8 3,724.5 3,756.3 3,811.4 3,821.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic i ivestment Personal c onsumption expen ditures Period national product 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 111.2 Total Durable goods Nondurable goods 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 104.9 106.6 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.1 111.9 Exports an [ imports of goods an 1 services Gove rnment pure lases of goc ds and ser <nces Federal Nonresidential ixe Residential fixed 117.1 122.5 127.6 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.5 98.5 98.9 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.2 111.1 116.2 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.3 99.7 100.4 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 94.8 92.1 97.6 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.2 110.2 112.7 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.5 110.8 111.8 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.1 108.1 116.2 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 115.4 119.3 124.7 Services Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ' 117.5 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.8 114.3 118.9 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: TV 101.7 105.4 109.0 101.8 105.7 109.3 100.7 103.1 104.1 101.0 103.1 105.8 102.7 108.3 113.5 100.7 98.3 97.9 99.1 103.1 107.2 100.0 102.6 102.4 99.3 97.2 96.2 101.3 103.8 108.5 102.0 104.7 108.3 99.5 100.3 108.9 102.2 106.3 111.7 1985: I II HI 109.9 110.8 111.6 112.4 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.3 104.6 104.5 104.6 104.3 106.3 107.4 107.6 108.6 114.8 116.3 118.0 119.4 98.0 97.5 97.3 97.1 107.6 107.6 108.0 109.5 101.8 101.6 101.0 100.6 94.9 94.8 94.4 95.2 109.0 109.3 108.8 109.5 108.9 109.0 109.0 111.2 109.5 110.1 108.4 105.4 113.4 114.9 116.0 117.3 1986: I 112.9 113.7 114.7 114.9 113.6 113.6 114.5 115.2 104.5 104.6 105.4 105.2 107.8 106.2 106.8 107.5 120.7 110.0 111.0 111.3 124.3 97.2 98.4 99.0 99.2 112.2 100.6 100.3 99.2 98.7 94.5 91.3 90.0 92.6 110.7 111.4 111.6 107.0 111.1 111.2 110.7 110.4 109.8 112.2 115.0 97.5 118.0 118.5 119.5 121.2 116.1 117.1 117.9 118.7 116.9 118.3 119.5 120.7 105.4 106.1 107.4 107.5 109.8 111.7 112.6 113.6 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.8 99.3 99.2 98.4 98.8 113.7 115.7 117.8 117.7 99.9 100.5 100.5 100.9 95.6 97.7 97.8 112.1 114.1 113.6 111.2 111.7 111.8 111.4 113.6 123.1 122.4 123.8 125.6 126.9 114.1 rv n m rv 1987: I n in IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 122.0 123.3 99.1 112.2 122.2 108.3 CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Ore ss national pr duct Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars IV n Ill IV 1987: I n in IV '. Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.7 3.4 1.9 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.2 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.1 4.0 4.0 3.2 10.3 9.7 7.2 5.3 5.5 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 4.0 3.8 2.8 3.4 4.1 3.7 2.9 5.9 4.0 6.9 1.2 3.3 4.1 3.3 4.0 3.5 4.4 3.2 3.4 9.4 8.4 10.1 5.3 3.4 4.5 3.3 4.2 5.4 .6 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.9 3.6 .7 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.3 5.7 4.1 10.7 3.1 4.5 1.5 .3 7.3 .5 1.1 .0 3.2 2.5 4.4 2.5 4.3 4.5 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.7 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.7 5.0 7.1 9.5 1.1 -.7 1.9 5.4 -3.1 6.0 4.9 4.1 4.1 3.6 6.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 4.2 12.4 4.7 .6 7.3 1.7 3.6 4.7 3.0 7.4 5.5 7.1 6.3 3.8 2.1 4.1 3.1 7.0 3.6 5.3 2.1 8.6 6.3 7.3 7.3 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1986: I Implicit price deflator -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.2 1984 1985 1986 1987 T. n in Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.5 6.0 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.5 2.4 3.2 — 0.2 1.9 -2.5 1985: I Chain price index 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.3 5.6 6.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption e* penditures Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.0 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 10.7 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.6 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.6 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.2 4.2 1.7 .3 3.6 3.0 3.6 3.0 5.5 5.2 4.0 5.7 5.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Curren t-dollar cos t and profit per unit o output (do liars) l Gross ( omestic prodi ct of nonfin ancial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current 1982 Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Corpc rate profits with inventory valuation a nd capital consunr ption adjustments Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Net interest Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 '. 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,282.8 2,376.1 2,496.9 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,127.1 2,182.2 2,241.7 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.073 1.089 1.114 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .121 .123 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .104 .106 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .702 .715 .727 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .043 .045 .047 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .107 .103 .110 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .036 .049 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .074 .068 .061 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.288 18.674 18.969 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.570 13.103 13.566 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 1.011 1.037 1.064 .131 .120 .118 .096 .098 .102 .685 .680 .694 .042 .037 .042 .057 .103 .107 .023 .036 .032 .034 .066 .075 17.382 18.029 18.359 11.914 12.261 12.746 1985: I 2,230.9 2,266.2 2,312.4 2,321.8 2,091.1 2,115.1 2,148.7 2,153.5 1.067 1.071 1.076 1.078 .119 .119 .118 .120 .102 .104 .102 .103 .698 .701 .699 .709 .043 .043 .043 .044 .106 .106 .114 .103 .033 .031 .034 .033 .072 .075 .080 .070 18.458 18.588 18.849 18.787 12.883 13.022 13.173 13.324 2,353.3 2,358.6 2,387.7 2,404.7 2,176.7 2,171.9 2,180.8 2,199.3 1.081 1.086 1.095 1.093 .119 .121 .122 .123 .104 .101 .106 .104 .709 .714 .717 .720 .045 .046 .046 .045 .104 .104 .104 .102 .033 .034 .037 .040 .071 .069 .068 .062 18.941 18.930 18.974 19.073 13.437 13.525 13.608 13.724 2,434.8 2,465.4 2,521.1 2,207.6 2,219.9 2,254.4 1.103 1.111 1.118 .123 .124 .123 .105 .107 .107 .724 .728 .727 .045 .046 .048 .106 .106 .114 .045 .047 .051 .061 .059 .063 n Ill IV 1986: I n in rv 1987: 1 I n m 18.933 18.964 !9.119 r r 13.708 13.798 13. 897 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars.2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employ- Proprieto s' income with in ventory valuation md capital consulnption adjust ments Farm 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,028.6 3,229.9 3,422.0 3,637.7 2,548.2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,156.5 3,204.4 3,254.4 3,304.4 3,364.2 3,414.1 3,438.7 3,471.0 3,548.3 3,593.3 3,659.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ' 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: I II ra IV 1986: I n m IV 1987: I n m IV 1 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,370.8 2,504.9 2,647.5 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,314.9 2,351.5 2,386.3 2,430.5 2,464.8 2,487.6 2,515.1 2,552.0 2,589.9 2,623.4 2,663.5 2,713.4 Rental income of persons with capital Nonfarm 24.6 12.4 30.5 29.7 37.2 48.8 28.5 19.3 28.1 31.7 32.2 22.9 31.7 28.0 48.1 36.3 36.6 51.3 47.3 40.6 56.1 tion adjustment 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.0 16.7 19.1 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.3 9.1 9.3 10.1 14.0 17.4 17.2 18.4 20.0 18.9 17.3 20.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 227.6 252.6 279.0 159.8 188.6 209.7 220.4 224.2 229.5 236.3 242.8 250.1 256.2 261.2 269.7 275.8 282.1 288.4 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Corpora te profits wit h inventory valuation an I capital consulnption adjus ments Profits Wl th inventory valuation adjustme it and witho ut capital consu mption adjus ;ment Total Profits before tax 150.0 213.7 266.9 277.6 284.4 306.5 146.1 248.5 266.9 265.6 274.2 292.8 277.8 288.0 282.3 286.4 281.1 294.0 296.8 314.9 159.2 196.7 234.2 224.1 238.4 258.4 150.7 223.4 224.6 216.1 219.8 236.8 223.7 236.7 235.6 242.4 239.0 245.7 248.8 267.3 Inventory valuation adjustment 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.8 231.9 275.7 164.1 231.5 226.1 217.6 218.0 230.2 233.5 218.9 224.4 236.3 247.9 257.0 268.7 284.9 Capital consumption -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -.7 6.5 -17.3 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -1.5 1.8 6.5 -9.8 17.8 11.3 6.0 -8.9 -11.3 -20.0 — 17.6 -20.4 -9.2 17.0 32.7 53.5 46.0 48.2 -4.5 25.1 42.3 49.5 54.4 56.0 54.2 51.3 46.7 44.0 42.1 48.2 48.0 47.7 48.7 Net interest 272.3 281.0 304.8 315.3 326.1 336.7 266.9 290.2 313.1 316.5 313.2 313.7 317.9 326.6 328.7 327.5 321.7 323.6 331.1 340.6 351.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 T. 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n m rv 1987: I n ra rv. expendi- Total durable goods 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.4 2,799.8 2,967.0 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,549.9 2,602.0 2,665.4 2,700.1 2,737.9 2,765.8 2,837.1 2,858.6 2,893.8 2,943.7 3,011.3 3,019.2 252.7 289.1 335.5 368.7 402.4 413.8 263.8 310.0 346.7 358.2 362.4 383.7 370.5 375.9 386.4 427.6 419.8 396.1 409.0 436.8 413.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Motor vehicles and parts 108.9 130.4 157.4 177.6 194.9 194.0 115.7 144.4 162.3 171.1 173.3 191.9 174.1 177.4 184.2 217.0 201.2 177.6 189.6 215.2 193.5 Furniture and household equipment 95.7 107.1 118.8 128.7 139.9 146.6 99.1 112.4 122.7 125.0 127.0 129.5 133.5 134.7 138.3 142.9 143.8 146.0 146.0 147.9 146.6 Retail ales of new pa ssenger cars (mi lions of un ts) Non durable g )ods Durabl goods Other 48.1 51.6 59.3 62.4 67.6 73.2 49.0 53.2 61.8 62.1 62.1 62.4 62.9 63.8 64.0 67.8 74.8 72.5 73.5 73.7 73.0 durable 771.0 816.7 867.3 913.1 939.4 981.6 786.6 837.9 879.6 894.4 910.4 918.4 929.3 936.8 934.3 940.0 946.3 969.9 982.1 986.4 988.1 Food 398.8 421.9 448.5 472.8 497.8 514.7 407.0 430.8 456.1 463.5 471.2 474.9 481.7 489.4 494.7 499.6 507.5 514.8 515.0 514.0 514.9 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 124.4 135.1 146.7 157.2 167.5 177.1 126.5 141.1 149.8 153.2 155.8 158.8 160.9 163.4 167.2 169.8 169.6 174.0 175.8 178.7 179.9 89.1 90.2 90.0 92.6 75.3 80.1 89.8 91.9 89.0 90.6 94.3 93.5 92.1 87.7 74.4 70.6 68.4 75.8 80.6 82.7 81.4 Other Domestics 158.7 169.5 182.1 190.5 198.8 209.7 163.4 174.0 184.7 187.2 189.1 191.2 194.5 196.3 198.0 200.0 200.8 205.3 210.7 211.0 211.9 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,347.5 1,458.0 1,571.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,297.3 1,329.2 1,363.3 1,400.3 1,425.2 1,445.1 1,469.5 1,492.4 1,527.7 1,552.6 1,588.1 1,617.9 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 6.0 7.4 7.7 8.3 8.1 9.3 7.1 7.7 7.9 9.5 7.8 6.7 7.0 8.0 6.7 Imports 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.6 3.3 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $12.2 billion (annual rate) in January, following a rise of $27.1 billion in December. The changes reflected several special factors: A pay raise for Federal Government employees, cost-of-living and other adjustments to several Federal transfer payments programs, and changes in social security contributions affected the January change, while subsidy payments to farmers and retroactive payment to Postal Service employees affected both the January and December changes. Excluding these special factors, personal income increased $20.5 billion in January and $13.9 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 4,200 4,200 • 3,200 __- ^-1 '-—""" T" A — 1 TOTAL PERSONAL INC:OME . ___---"" 1,600 •""V""" \ 1,600 WAGE AN 3 SALARY DISB JRSEMENTS ... — -•"" ,_ 1' ' 800 - \ 0THER INCOME ..«••* ,_. _.. ,-- 400 \ 400 _.--/ 200 **" ... _ .-— TRANSFER PAYMENTS - —'' , 1 , 1 , 1 . ! , , ! ....Illllll .,...l....i M U l l l l l l l iiinliiiii III.H..III 1983 1982 1981 1980 1984 1985 iniiliiiii iiinliiiii H i l l l l l l l i 1987 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 200 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietor ' income 3 Period Total personal income 1980 1981 2,258.4 2,520.9 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Ocf Nov r Dec r 1988: Jan" 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,327.0 3,534.3 3,746.3 3,631.5 3,671.2 3,683.4 3,701.9 3,708.5 3,715.3 3,739.2 3,760.6 3,783.2 3,855.2 3,839.3 3,866.4 3,878.6 income ments 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,838.6 1,974.9 2,089.1 2,212.7 2,150.2 2,166.4 2,173.1 2,181.5 2,193.7 2,198.9 2,209.7 2,228.8 2,239.8 2,257.6 2,271.9 2,281.0 2,296.1 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 182.9 192.3 201.1 210.2 205.9 206.7 207.4 210.0 209.0 209.6 210.4 211.1 211.9 212.7 213.5 214.4 215.2 Farm 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 29.7 37.2 48.8 42.0 56.2 55.6 58.0 41.6 42.3 43.9 37.7 40.2 79.3 39.3 49.7 39.2 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 204.0 227.6 252.6 279.0 265.6 270.2 273.2 274.1 275.8 277.7 279.9 282.8 283.6 286.0 289.0 290.2 292.7 Bental income of 4 Personal dividend income 6.6 13.3 52.9 61.3 63.9 persons 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.0 16.7 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.4 19.7 18.9 18.2 17.8 17.3 16.7 18.9 20.6 20.7 21.1 68.7 75.5 76.3 81.2 87.5 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.3 86.5 87.0 87.9 88.8 89.4 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.4 Personal interest income 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 444.7 476.5 497.6 515.8 498.1 499.8 501.6 503.8 506.3 508.8 514.0 519.8 526.2 532.1 537.2 542.3 547.1 Transfer Payments 5 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 456.6 489.7 518.3 543.0 532.2 534.5 534.3 537.3 545.4 541.7 545.2 545.2 547.0 551.4 550.8 551.3 564.2 4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 132.7 148.9 159.6 169.8 165.9 167.0 167.3 167.7 168.6 168.9 169.6 170.8 171.6 172.8 173.7 174.2 188.4 Nonfarm personal income 6 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.1 3,273.5 3,475.2 3,675.9 3,568.4 3,594.1 3,607.2 3,622.8 3,645.1 3,651.2 3,673.5 3,701.1 3,721.1 3,753.9 3,778.0 3,794.6 3,817.3 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1987. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 1979 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1 ersonal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments tquals: Imposab personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per c ipita disposable personal met me Current dollars 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,327.0 3,534.3 3,746.3 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 485.9 512.2 564.8 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,668.6 2,841.1 3,022.1 3,181.5 Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,504.5 2,714.1 2,891.5 3,061.9 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 127.1 130.6 119.6 2,214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2,331.9 2,469.8 2,542.2 2,645.1 2,676.7 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,257 11,872 12,508 13,049 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) a PerceiIt Dolla 'S Billio ns of dollar i 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r. 1982 dollars Per capit personal consulnption expen itures 9,722 9,769 9,724 9,930 10,419 10,622 10,947 10,979 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,253 10,987 11,588 12,169 8,783 — 1.1 7.1 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,489 9,830 10,142 10,239 .5 -.5 2.1 4.9 1.9 3.1 .3 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.1 4.5 4.3 3.8 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,051 239,323 241,620 243,812 Seasonally idjusted ann ual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: IV IV IV 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 I 3,259.2 3,304.4 3,338.2 3,406.4 n in.... IV 1986: I n m.... IV 1987: I n m.... r IV ... 3,463.4 3,526.6 3,553.6 3,593.6 3,662.0 3,708.6 3,761.0 3,853.6 411.1 413.9 459.7 497.0 455.9 491.0 499.7 497.4 504.2 515.3 532.0 536.1 578.0 565.7 579.4 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,762.2 2,848.4 2,847.2 2,906.6 2,631.0 2,685.6 2,751.5 2,788.1 2,966.0 3,022.4 3,038.2 3,061.6 2,827.6 2,856.4 2,929.4 2,952.6 3,125.9 3,130.6 3,195.3 3,274.2 2,987.5 3,037.4 3,106.5 3,116.4 143.1 145.4 157.3 131.2 162.8 95.7 118.5 138.4 166.0 108.9 109.0 138.4 93.2 88.8 157.9 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 9,929 10,725 11,467 9,749 10,151 10,491 9,068 9,825 10,479 8,904 9,299 9,587 1.2 9.1 1.7 6.2 5.8 5.8 233,466 235,707 237,946 2,506.8 2,558.4 2,538.2 2,565.5 11,584 11,919 11,882 12,099 10,513 10,705 10,592 10,679 10,694 10,888 11,124 11,239 9,705 9,779 9,916 9,920 .8 7.5 4.8 5.7 3.4 4.1 238,452 238,977 239,618 240,246 2,610.5 2,660.2 2,653.2 2,656.7 12,318 12,525 12,560 12,626 10,842 11,024 10,968 10,956 11,371 11,461 11,729 11,789 10,008 10,088 10,242 10,229 4.7 5.5 3.6 3.6 240,782 241,313 241,896 242,489 2,674.6 2,645.5 2,674.7 2,712.1 12,865 12,858 13,090 13,381 11,008 10,865 10,958 11,083 11,910 12,090 12,337 12,338 10,190 10,216 10,327 10,220 4.4 3.0 2.8 4.8 242,971 243,480 244,094 244,701 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). -4.2 3.3 6.2 6.9 -2.0 — .4 1.9 -5.1 3.5 4.6 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter of 1987, according to current estimates, gross farm income rose $4.0 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $2.7 billion. BILL ONS OF DOLL/!^RS * (RATIO S CALE) BILLIC NS OF DOLLA iS* (RATIO SOM.E) 240 200 240 200 160 . s ( ^— \ ~~-—~*s \ 120 "—'——-^^f^ —- • 160 •"-• V GROS S FARM INCO ME 80 60 40 40 20 20 10 10 - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come (jross Period Total 1980 1981 1982 149.3 166.3 163.5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1984: I II 153.1 174.7 166.0 159.5 176.8 169.8 176.6 175.8 168.5 164.0 159.5 172.1 149.8 168.8 154.7 164.8 167.3 153.7 157.7 IV 1985: I U Ill IV 1986: I II Ill IV 1987: I II TH" Livestock and products 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.6 142.3 144.2 135.2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 72.9 69.8 71.6 137.8 142.2 147.0 142.3 75.8 72.0 72.0 71.8 137.9 138.0 144.8 69.9 69.0 68.9 71.4 156.1 134.4 130.6 135.0 140.7 130.0 128.1 137.3 68.3 66.8 77.8 73.3 72.6 72.0 78.7 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Net farni income Cas h marketing reee pts Total l in of farm ope rators from farmi ng farm incom Crops 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.4 74.4 63.6 62.0 70.1 74.9 70.4 68.0 68.9 76.0 84.7 66.0 63.8 57.2 67.4 57.4 56.1 58.6 Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses -6.3 6.5 — 1.4 -10.9 6.2 -2.7 -3.3 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 133.7 122.1 2.1 7.3 8.8 143.1 143.6 142.9 141.1 6.6 1.1 24 -4.2 -5.1 138.3 135.3 132.2 129.0 -4.2 -3.5 -3.0 2.4 125.7 122.9 120.6 119.0 -2.0 -1.7 .9 117.9 117.0 118.5 Current dollars . 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.0 32.3 37.5 33.6 26.3 33.7 34.5 30.2 28.7 27.3 43.1 24.1 45.9 34.2 45.8 49.4 36.6 39.3 3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 1982 dollars 3 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.7 29.0 32.9 31.6 24.4 31.2 31.8 27.5 25.9 24.5 38.4 21.4 40.3 29.8 39.9 42.5 31.2 33.3 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1987, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $16.2 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $7.4 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 320 P 280 280 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 240 240 200 200 160 160 120 120 S—x. TAX LIABILITY, -V 80 80 40 40 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS I 1979 I I 1980 I I I I 1981 I I I 1982 I I I I I 1984 1983 I I I I I I I I I 1987 1986 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Prc fits (before t ix) with inve ntory valuati on adjustmen t 1 Profits after ta X Dmnestic indust •ies Total 2 Total Financial Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 224.1 238.4 258.4 IV IV IV I n m rv 1986: I II Ill IV 1987: I n m IV P 1 2 150.7 223.4 224.6 216.1 219.8 236.8 223.7 236.7 235.6 242.4 239.0 245.7 248.8 267.3 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 193.6 207.2 226.3 121.6 190.7 193.9 187.1 189.2 208.3 189.7 202.3 207.0 210.2 209.3 213.1 215.8 235.4 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 18.4 26.1 27.5 18.7 15.5 13.6 15.3 19.1 18.4 20.8 26.2 26.9 25.2 26.1 27.6 27.8 27.0 3 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 175.2 181.1 198.8 102.9 175.2 180.3 171.8 170.1 189.9 168.9 176.2 180.0 185.1 183.2 185.5 188.0 208.4 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfmancial Period Manufacturing sale and retail trade 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 88.8 72.2 69.4 91.4 46.8 88.6 79.8 67.8 68.4 80.1 72.4 61.9 72.5 68.0 75.4 75.4 85.5 100.7 51.4 52.1 52.0 33.6 43.1 51.8 52.0 52.8 55.7 45.0 55.8 48.2 54.6 49.7 56.2 45.2 52.1 3 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.8 231.9 275.7 164.1 231.5 226.1 217.6 218.0 230.2 233.5 218.9 224.4 236.3 247.9 257.0 268.7 284.9 Tax liability T Total 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.7 105.0 138.2 59.8 88.1 87.0 94.0 93.2 100.5 99.1 98.1 102.1 106.1 113.9 128.0 134.2 143.0 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 128.1 126.8 137.6 104.3 143.4 139.2 123.6 124.8 129.7 134.4 120.9 122.3 130.2 134.0 129.0 134.5 141.9 Dividends 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 81.3 86.8 93.8 68.5 73.9 80.8 81.2 81.3 81.2 81.7 84.3 86.6 87.7 88.6 90.3 92.4 95.2 97.3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Econom : Analysis. Undistributed profits 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 46.8 40.0 43.8 35.8 69.5 58.4 42.4 43.5 48.5 52.7 36.6 35.7 42.5 45.4 38.7 42.1 46.7 tor valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -.7 6.5 -17.3 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -1.5 1.8 6.5 -9.8 17.8 11.3 6.0 -8.9 -11.3 -20.0 -17.6 r -20.4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1987, nonresidential fixed investment rose $1.2 billion (annual rate) while residential investment rose $4.4 billion. There was a $66.7 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $22.9 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 SEASON* LLY ADJUSTED ANNU AL KATES — _/700 700 . — ^^/ GROSS F'RIVATE DOME STIC ItsJVESTMENT 600 .^-— 400 / / .---' — 600 / y \ \_ r . ^1 ""*- — .. ---'"' 500 / ^ "^^X - \_x / Y-^^X 500 - ^...._ 400 NONRESIDENT AL F XED INVESTM ENT 7=+^ ---'' — 300 300 — — RESIDENTIAL Fl> ED INVESTME^ IT 200 200 — - — • — •"""" — — ^, ~x 100 100 s _ --'" Xss CHANGE IN BUSINESS i INVE STORIES / v •--.---• V \ -"" 1 -100 1979 i i i 1981 1980 I I I 1982 y 111 1983 ,----x --^ i I ! 1984 i 1 1 1985 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ! 1 i 1986 r^s_ \ \ \ -100 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1''ixed investmen t ~ UTOSS investment 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r. 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: IV 1985: I .,. n m IV 1986: I n m IV 1987: I n mr iv . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 641.6 671.0 716.7 409.6 579.8 661.8 638.6 648.4 628.6 650.8 683.4 679.4 660.8 660.2 699.9 702.6 707.4 756.8 Change iii business mven tones Nonresidential Total Total 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.6 655.2 671.3 469.5 548.8 616.8 617.3 629.9 631.0 648.3 645.1 651.9 657.3 666.6 648.2 662.3 684.5 690.1 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.6 436.9 442.9 354.9 383.9 435.0 431.5 445.6 442.0 451.5 440.7 433.8 433.5 439.7 422.8 434.6 456.6 457.8 Structures 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 152.5 137.4 133.9 137.6 127.4 146.6 150.6 154.4 152.9 152.1 149.6 135.9 131.1 132.9 128.7 129.7 137.1 140.1 Producers' durable equipment 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 290.1 299.5 309.0 217.3 256.5 288.4 280.8 291.3 289.1 299.3 291.0 297.9 302.4 306.7 294.1 304.9 319.5 317.6 Residential 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 189.0 218.3 228.4 114.7 164.9 181.8 185.8 184.3 189.0 196.8 204.4 218.1 223.8 226.9 225.4 227.7 227.9 232.3 Total -8.3 24.0 -24.5 -7.1 67.7 10.0 15.7 45.4 59.9 31.0 45.0 21.4 18.5 2.4 2.5 38.3 27.5 3.5 6.4 51.6 40.3 22.9 66.7 Nonfarm -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 60.5 13.6 16.8 36.6 -51.1 21.3 41.3 17.7 13.7 5.2 17.8 38.5 24.5 .9 5.1 48.7 27.3 11.1 59.3 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1987 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 7.3 percent in 1988, following an estimated rise of 2.9 percent in 1987. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 _ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING -^ -' MANUFACTURING 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 I I 1980 I I I I I I I I 1982 1981 1984 1983 I I I 1985 I I 1986 1987 _>/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly M inufacturir g Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 19874 19884 1986: I 11 m IV 1987: I II Ill IV 1988: I 4 II4 Nor manufactui ing All industries Total 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 390.57 419.00 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 147.86 159.85 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.85 73.98 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 76.01 85.87 380.04 376.21 375.50 386.09 145.11 142.19 139.43 144.07 68.71 68.56 69.42 69.87 374.23 377.65 393.13 417.25 140.65 140.79 147.56 162.45 427.97 429.07 164.68 165.94 Non manufactu ring Surveyed quarterly Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 242.71 259.15 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.18 11.85 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 19.10 20.63 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.53 45.04 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 167.89 181.63 76.39 73.62 70.01 74.20 234.93 234.03 236.07 242.02 13.13 11.29 10.14 10.31 18.50 18.40 18.81 19.50 47.17 46.43 45.81 46.12 156.14 157.91 161.31 166.08 145.11 142.19 139.43 144.07 234.93 234.03 236.07 242.02 70.47 68.76 71.78 76.40 70.18 72.03 75.78 86.05 233.58 236.87 245.58 254.80 10.31 11.02 11.64 11.74 18.98 17.67 19.17 20.60 43.60 43.48 44.90 46.16 160.70 164.69 169.87 176.29 140.65 140.79 147.56 162.45 233.58 236.87 245.58 254.80 78.41 77.70 86.27 88.23 263.29 263.14 11.86 12.04 22.92 20.53 45.36 46.56 183.15 184.01 164.68 165.94 263.29 263.14 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total l 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and rea! estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 Manufacturing 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 147.86 159.85 Total 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 242.71 259.15 Surveyed annually 3 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1987, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In January, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 385,000 and unemployment rose 68,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 124 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 124 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 116 116 112 112 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 108 108 104 104 CIVILIAN . EMPLOYMENT - 100 100 96 96 ^ 12 12 UNEMPLOYMENT umluiu ,ini|nm 1980 1982 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 * 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Noninstitutional TJ • i 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1987: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1988: Jan 1 population including resident Armed Forces NSA 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 183,575 183,738 183,915 184,079 184,259 184,421 184,605 184,738 184,904 185,052 185,225 185,370 185,571 Resident Armed f orces NSA 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,748 1,740 1,736 1,735 1,726 1,718 1,720 1,736 1,743 1,741 1,755 1,750 1,749 -. , including resident Armed Forces Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagticultural Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Total Part-time for economic reasons l 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 111,303 114,177 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 120,726 120,970 120,982 121,098 121,633 121,326 121,610 122,042 121,706 122,128 122,349 122,472 112,762 113,084 113,191 113,541 114,060 114,018 114,359 114,786 114,615 114,951 115,259 115,494 118,978 119,230 119,246 119,363 119,907 119,608 119,890 120,306 119,963 120,387 120,594 120,722 111,014 111,344 111,455 111,806 112,334 112,300 112,639 113,050 112,872 113,210 113,504 113,744 107,840 108,119 108,218 108,556 109.065 109,108 109,427 109,907 109,688 109,961 110,332 110,529 122,924 115,878 121,175 114,129 3,174 3,225 3,237 3,250 3,269 3,192 3,212 3,143 3,184 3,249 3,172 3,215 3,293 5,211 5,458 5,180 5,104 5,058 4,979 5,154 5,016 4,986 5,067 5,241 5,004 5,145 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unempl jyment Civilian e mployment f 110,836 5,334 5,345 5,122 Total Labor force partici] ation rate (pe rcetvt) 15 weeks and over 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 7,964 7,886 7,791 7,557 7,573 7,308 7,251 7,256 7,091 7,177 7,090 6,978 2,187 2,129 2,055 2,060 2,067 2,029 1,920 1,896 1,904 1,801 1,834 1,791 7,046 1,733 Total 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 65.1 65.6 65.9 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.1 65.8 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.2 Civilian 3 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.5 65.7 65.5 65.6 65.7 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.9 * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate was unchanged, at 5.7 percent; the civilian unemployment rate was also unchanged, at 5.8 percent. PERC:ENT* ;ENT* (SEASCDNALLY ADJUSTED) (SEASC3NALLY ADJlJSTED) PER( 25 25 20 20 A V A -/i v V V v\ .^ BLACK jv A ' "rv" 15 •v _A V ' 'V' BLACK AND OTHER 10 '"'—N [ f "" 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS / ^X^__ I/ 5 *~~>*<ys '^r~r-^jJ/~---^^J_^ ^"""^---^^^^ 5 WHITE 0 Illllllllll 1984 t TEENAGERS (16-19) . A 15 -A * Illllllllll 1985 iiiiihiiii miihim i i i i i l i n i i 1 986 1 987 \ MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER niiilinn 0 1984 1 988 1 '^^^^ Illllllllll Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l 1987 1985 1986 mnlimi 1988 "UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF Cl\ IUAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF EC ONOMiC ADVISER SOURCE: DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unempi oyment ra te (percen of civilia n labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 B y sex and age All civilian workers Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Black 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 6.2 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 17.7 17.9 17.8 17.3 17.6 16.0 15.8 16.2 16.4 17.2 16.6 16.1 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.1 16.0 5.0 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1988: Jan Women 20 years and over 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1980 Men 20 years and over By s elected grou] s By race Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families 7.9 10.5 10.4 11.0 10.9 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.5 8.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 8.9 8.8 9.1 8.6 8.7 7.3 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.6 8.9 5.4 8.3 6.6 4.2 4.3 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 12.5 12.6 12.4 11.8 12.1 11.5 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.8 11.0 10.9 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.0 13.7 12.8 12.7 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.2 12.2 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.4 10.9 12.2 5.5 3.6 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 12 Parttime workers 8.8 9.4 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 Fulltime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 8.5 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, based on seasonally adjusted data, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell, while the percentage out of work for 514 weeks rose. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION' PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASOI-J FOR LINE WPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 -\-~. ^ 50 ,A r^- 50 LESS THAN 5 WEEKS \ V N '"\^'\ JOB LOSERS 40 40 5-14 WEEKS REENTRANTS 30 30 .,- \j - - .S-S"' 27 WEEKS AND OVER 20 S EW ENTRAN 'S >/~^_ ~^ ,\ VT~ 10 —.'—" \ 15-26 J OB LEAVERS WEEKS iiiiilniii 1984 1986 1985 ^---J~ 20 ^' 10 -X 1984 1988 1987 lllllllllll l l l l l l l l l l l lllllllllll lllllllllll 1985 1986 l"987 1988 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Unemployment (thousands) F ercent di stributio i Medi- Job losers Job leavers Reentrants Newentrants 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 14.5 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.4 13.4 14.7 14.0 13.4 13.2 12.9 15.0 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.2 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 5.8 6.2 6.1 6.0 49.7 48.5 48.5 49.1 47.9 48.4 48.4 47.0 46.8 47.7 46.8 45.7 11.4 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.4 13.1 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.5 25.8 25.8 26.6 26.1 26.5 26.9 26.5 27.3 26.9 26.0 28.0 27.8 13.1 12.7 12.2 12.2 13.3 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.5 12.9 12.1 13.0 12.6 14.4 6.4 45.2 15.S 21.0 12.5 15-26 weeks Average (mean) 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 41.8 42.2 42.9 42.5 43.9 42.9 43.9 44.2 45.5 45.3 45.4 46.2 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.0 28.7 29.4 29.6 20.6 27.6 29.4 28.7 28.2 12.7 12.7 12.1 13.1 12.9 13.3 13.0 11.5 13.0 11.9 12.7 12.8 43.6 31.9 11.8 5-14 weeks 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 7,964 7,886 7,791 7,557 7,573 7,308 7,251 7,256 7,091 7,177 7,090 6,978 7,046 Insured unemployment, Numb er of 27 weeks and over Less than 5 weeks Stat e progra ms fie as on for jnemplo} ment: percent distributi )n Dur ition of i nempfoy •ment Insured unemployment Initial claims regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly a^rerage, t lousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1988: Jan 1 , Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 488 460 58S 438 377 396 378 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,523 2,470 ' 2,439 ' 2,367 r 2,321 r 2,297 r 2,273 '2,223 r 2,I02 '2,035 ' 2,037 ""2,090 363 361 342 r 334 r 333 r 331 r 329 r 307 r 289 r 293 r 303 r 317 3,276 3,155 2,933 2,526 2,216 2,108 2,210 2,030 1,800 1,759 1,931 2,322 2,242 356 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 r r r r r Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 107,000 in January. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MIUIONS OF PERSONS* ^,-100 — • — —"] ALLN DNAGRICUL TURAL "^"^ 90 ES FABLISHMEN TS 80 " "T" 70 60 SERV ICE-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES — — 50 40 16 r= 20 — — 18 GOC3DS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 30 \ 20 minium i 1984 lilllllllil Illllllllll 1985 imilnm nmlimii\ 1987 1986 1988 1984 1988 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Goods-] reducing industries Period Se rvice-produ sing industr es y anufacturin g Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Gover nment Total Federal 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,610 102,110 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,859 24,681 24,884 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,383 4,673 4,904 5,031 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,260 18,994 19,112 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,505 11,490 11,244 11,236 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,873 7,770 7,750 7,875 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,660 74,930 77,226 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,238 5,244 5,377 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,717 5,735 5,797 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,356 17,845 18,262 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,955 6,297 6,589 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 22,000 23,099 24,138 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,394 16,711 17,063 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 2,943 100,919 101,150 101,329 101,598 101,708 101,818 102,126 102,275 102,434 102,983 103,285 10,3,596 24,708 24,743 24,749 24,759 24,752 24,761 24,850 24.886 24,917 25,064 25,169 25,258 5,034 5,038 5,032 5,019 4,999 5,008 5,002 5,006 4,989 5,053 5,074 5,122 18,956 18,986 18,995 19,011 19,018 19,015 19,104 19,129 19,169 19,247 19,336 19,377 11,157 11,179 11,176 11,175 11,175 11,176 11,195 11,248 11,268 11,319 11,367 11,401 7,799 7,807 7,819 7,836 7,843 7,839 7,909 7,881 7,901 7,928 7,969 7,976 76,211 76,407 76,580 76,839 76,956 77,057 77,276 77,389 77,517 77,919 78,116 78,338 5,304 5,315 5,333 5,348 5,344 5,350 5,363 5,377 5,416 5,436 5,459 5,468 5,741 5,757 5,766 5,772 5,775 5,781 5,797 5,807 5,815 5,831 5,851 5,873 18,080 18,140 18,136 18,197 18,205 18,226 18,274 18,256 18,314 18,408 18,443 18,433 6,480 6,501 6,526 6,558 6,576 6,586 6,608 6,624 6,629 c 6,650 6,657 6,667 23,670 23,759 23,842 23,926 24,025 24,083 24,214 24,279 24,295 24,406 24,493 24,623 16,936 16,935 16,977 17,038 17,031 17,031 17,020 17,046 17,048 17,188 17,213 17,274 2,912 2,916 2,922 2,933 2,935 2,935 2,936 2,940 2,962 2,965 2,977 2,979 Jan".. 103,703 25,219 5,072 19,402 11,413 7,989 78,484 5,476 5,892 18,587 6,671 24,651 17,207 2,981 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov r.. Dec r.. 1988: Total nonagricultural employment 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gi oas hourly earn ings Average weekl\ hours Period Manufa cturing Total private nonagncultural ' Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime Total 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 Oct Nov Dec r 34.7 34.9 34.8 34.7 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.9 34.6 34.9 34.9 34.7 1988: Jan p 34.7 35.3 35.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987" 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Manufacturing Adjust* d hourly earnin Era index — total private nonagric ultural 2 Percent chang e from a year earlic r 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 -100 Current dollars • 1977 dollars 3 $7.27 3.3 3.4 3.7 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 40.9 41.1 40.9 40.6 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.6 41.3 41.2 41.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.9 8.86 8.88 8.91 8.91 8.95 8.94 8.96 9.02 9.02 9.08 r 9.12 9.10 9.79 9.81 9.83 9.86 9.88 9.88 9.87 9.93 10.02 10.00 10.01 10.02 171.2 171.8 172.2 172.6 172.9 172.9 173.2 174.1 174.6 174.9 175.8 175.4 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.5 -4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 -.3 94.6 1.1 .3 -.6 93.8 93.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 41.1 3.9 9.14 10.04 176.3 93.6 2.9 155.4 160.3 165.2 169.3 173.5 r 1977 dollars 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 95.0 94.0 127.3 138.9 148.5 $6.66 Current dollars r 94.6 94.4 94.2 94.0 93.8 93.7 93.7 93.8 93.6 __ K 1.0 ^ | -1.2 -1.3 -1.4 — 1.4 -1.5 — 1.4 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 J | AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent el ange from a year earlier, total private n onagricultural 5 Avera ge gross weekly ea rnings Period Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987" Manufacturing Total private nonagric ultural l $235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 Construction Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 r $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 $367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.38 r 477.28 $147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 r 179.02 6.9 -5.8 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 -1.5 Novr Dec r . 307.44 309.91 310.07 309.18 312.36 311.11 311.81 314.80 312.09 316.89 318.29 315.77 169.95 170.66 r 169.99 * 168.67 r 169.85 ' 168.71 r 168.64 r 169.43 r 167.61 r 169.55 169.94 168.32 400.41 403.19 402.05 400.32 405.08 405.08 404.67 407.13 406.81 413.00 412.41 410.82 476.63 474.24 478.30 471.61 481.97 478.27 478.93 480.44 449.79 485.64 487.92 483.23 175.45 176.97 177.27 179.36 179.05 178.12 179.02 181.45 183.22 180.49 180.16 178.27 1.2 2.4 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.3 2.4 3.7 3.2 3.2 1988: Jan". 317.16 168.43 412.64 472.51 178.89 3.1 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r 1 4 2 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners ind clerical workers (on a 1977 — 100 base). Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1983. 1977 dollars Current dollars 1.2 1.9 .9 — 1.4 .4 -1.0 .1 .5 -1.0 ^g -1.1 -1.0 -.9 -.9 -1.8 -.9 -1.3 -1.2 -.9 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. 3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output p< r hour of allpe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outf ut ' Business sector Compens ation per hou r 3 Hours of all pers<>ns 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit lab or costs Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implic t price defla tor 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector 19rF7 = 100; |uarterly ( ata seasoilally adjus ted 1979 99.6 99.3 107.9 107.9 108.3 108.7 119.1 118.9 99.4 99.2 119.5 119.7 117.0 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.6 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.5 104.6 106.7 108.9 105.5 106.7 108.0 108.7 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.0 95.7 97.2 98.2 97.9 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 127.8 140.3 149.2 109.9 119.2 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.8 96.6 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.5 108.2 105.2 1985 1986 1987 "* 107.5 109.5 110.5 105.8 107.5 108.4 123.9 128.0 132.3 1982: IV 101.0 99.7 1983: IV 103.7 1984: IV 105.9 1985: I 106.5 107.2 108.2 107.9 1986: I II n m rv in IV 1987: I II r m .... IV"*.. 106.7 112.9 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.0 123.6 127.5 131.9 115.2 116.9 119.7 116.8 118.6 121.6 175.9 182.8 188.2 175.2 182.0 187.1 99.1 101.0 100.3 98.7 100.6 99.8 163.6 166.9 170.2 105.0 104.2 103.9 104.5 158.3 158.2 98.0 97.9 103.3 113.6 114.1 109.4 110.4 163.6 163.4 98.0 104.8 120.8 120.7 114.0 115.2 170.3 170.2 98.1 105.2 105.7 106.4 105.9 122.2 123.3 124.7 125.3 122.0 123.1 124.3 124.9 114.7 115.0 115.2 116.1 115.9 116.4 116.9 117.9 172.4 174.6 177.0 179.3 172.2 174.1 176.2 178.3 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.6 107.7 107.7 107.5 107.5 127.3 127.5 128.1 129.0 126.9 127.1 127.6 128.5 116.3 116.3 116.9 117.8 117.9 118.0 118.7 119.6 180.7 182.2 183.6 185.2 109.7 110.1 111.3 111.1 107.6 108.0 109.1 109.0 130.2 131.1 133.1 134.7 129.7 130.7 132.7 134.4 118.7 119.1 119.6 121.2 120.6 121.1 121.7 123.2 185.8 187.3 189.1 190.5 -1.2 -1.6 2.0 1.9 3.2 3.5 9.7 9.5 -1.4 -2.7 -1.0 156.0 157.6 160.4 158.2 154.3 159.0 165.6 169.3 172.6 162.4 165.8 170.0 164.1 167.8 171.8 156.8 158.7 150.2 151.4 97.9 157.7 158.2 155.2 156.2 98.0 160.8 162.4 159.8 161.0 98.5 98.6 99.4 99.7 98.4 98.3 98.9 99.2 161.9 162.8 163.6 166.1 163.6 164.7 165.7 168.3 160.8 162.0 163.0 164.0 162.2 163.6 164.9 165.7 180.0 181.3 182.6 184.4 100.1 101.3 101.4 101.6 99.7 100.8 100.9 101.2 165.0 166.2 167.5 169.0 167.2 168.4 169.8 171.5 164.3 165.4 166.9 166.7 166.4 167.3 168.8 168.8 184.9 186.3 187.9 189.5 100.7 100.3 100.3 100.2 100.2 99.7 99.6 99.6 169.4 170.2 169.8 171.4 171.8 172.5 172.2 173.8 168.2 169.6 170.7 171.3 170.3 171.4 172.5 173.1 -1.6 11.1 11.2 9.0 8.9 -2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 -.3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.1 2.5 3.2 2.3 2.4 Pe cent change; quarte rly data at seasonal] y adjusted annual ra ;es 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -.3 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.5 .4 1.0 -.6 3.3 2.1 -1.1 2.1 3.1 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 3.3 5.0 8.3 -.8 .7 -2.8 1.5 5.7 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 3.9 1985 1986 1987"* 1.8 1.9 .9 1.2 1.6 .8 4.0 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.4 2.1 1.4 2.4 2.5 1.6 2.6 4.7 3.9 2.9 4.4 3.9 2.8 — .7 .8 1.9 -.8 1982: IV 3.0 2.4 -.5 — 1.2 4.5 5.0 3.2 3.7 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.0 1983: IV 3.0 1.4 10.4 9.8 7.2 8.3 5.4 4.3 1.5 .4 2.4 2.9 4.8 3.1 1984: IV -3.4 -3.5 1.6 1.0 -.2 1.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 3.5 3.1 2.1 2.1 3.8 3.9 .4 .6 2.3 2.9 2.7 3.3 1985: I 2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 1.5 1.7 2.6 -1.6 4.8 3.8 4.4 2.2 4.3 3.4 4.1 2.0 2.5 1.0 .7 3.2 2.8 1.7 1.5 3.6 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 1.7 .6 3.3 1.2 1.4 — .1 2.5 .9 2.8 2.2 1.9 6.2 3.2 2.7 2.2 6.6 2.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.0 1986: I 5.8 .6 -.3 -.1 6.6 .1 -.6 .0 6.4 .7 1.8 3.0 6.4 .6 1.7 2.9 .5 .1 2.1 3.1 2 .6 2.3 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.9 2.8 4.0 1.6 4.8 .5 .9 2.3 4.2 .4 1.3 -2.5 2.8 3.3 3.7 -2.6 2.8 3.5 4.0 .9 2.6 3.7 -.5 1.6 2.3 3.7 .0 1987: I .5 1.4 4.7 -.7 .4 1.4 4.2 -.2 3.5 3.0 6.3 4.8 3.8 3.2 6.3 5.1 3.0 1.6 1.5 5.6 3.4 1.7 2.0 5.3 1.4 3.3 3.8 3.1 1.1 3.0 3.6 3.4 -3.9 -1.8 -.3 — .1 .9 1.8 -.9 3.9 .8 1.5 -.6 3.7 3.7 3.4 2.5 1.6 3.4 2.6 2.7 1.5 n in rv n m rv n r m .... IV "* .. 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 -3.7 -1.6 -.1 -.5 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data do not reflect revisions of GNP and related items published February 25. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in January, following a rise of 0.4 percent in December. The index for January was 6.0 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 240 FINAL P 5ODUCTS 220 DEI ENSE AND 200 SPACE EC3UIPMENT 180 ^ TOTAL If-4DUSTRIAL PRODUCTI ON 140 " r^^ Illllllllll Illllllllll niiiliiin •> 120 100 160 160 .^"" BUS NESS 3 EQUI MENT / Illltllllll h-^— 140 ^~~ DU *ABLE X _ 120 -^^—/~ r^l 100 Illllllllll iiinlniu Illllllllll Illllllllll HUlllllil ~-^~ — ^ — " ~^-'-'- 120 .--••---• NONDU [ABLE 100 1 5 MANUF/VCTURING PRODUCTKDN 140 _. —I Illllllllll CONSUMER GOODS Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll PERCENT* Illlllllll! 100 CAPACrFYUTILIZAT ION RATE (TOTAL INC USTRY) 140 UTILITIES ANDMIN NG PRODIJCTION 120 »_* s~^O\> A —voti^^ 100 — MINING- Illllllllll 1984 Illllllllll 1985 90 UTILITIES Vs.--.V~ S f 80 ** -—•—-—1 -~ :,n n r^ _^ ~>~ F~^~H /" ^v_x- imilimi 1986 70 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1987 1988 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1985 Illllllllll 1986 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Illllllllll 1987 Illllllllll 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER? [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Industry pro [uction indexe , 1977 = 100 To tal indu strial prodi ction Capacity utilization rate, p< rcent l Manufacturing Period 1 1977 = 100 Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 49.10 35.11 9.83 5.96 1.9 1.1 3.8 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.6 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.7 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 T 100.5 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.0 Novr Dec r 126.2 127.1 127.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.6 131.2 131.0 132.5 133.0 133.6 -.1 1.3 2.9 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.4 130.7 131.6 132.4 132.4 133.2 134.0 135.6 135.9 135.7 137.3 137.9 138.5 129.3 130.8 131.5 130.9 131.4 132.0 133.5 133.8 133.7 136.8 136.7 137.1 132.7 132.9 133.7 134.6 135.7 136.9 138.5 138.8 138.6 138.1 139.4 140.6 99.4 98.8 98.3 98.6 99.2 99.2 99.2 100.9 101.9 103.6 104.2 103.2 108.0 108.5 107.9 106.0 109.6 109.4 111.2 112.9 111.2 112.1 112.9 112.6 79.2 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.9 80.3 81.1 81.4 81.1 81.9 82.0 82.2 79.6 80.0 80.3 80.2 80.4 80.8 81.5 81.5 81.3 82.0 82.2 82.4 Jan * 133.8 6.0 138.9 137.2 141.2 102.6 114.0 82.2 82.4 100.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987" 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Ocf. 1 Durable Total 84.21 1977 proportion 1988: Mining from year earlier Output as percent of capacity. -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 79.3 78.2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produc ts Mate rials Final produc s Intern lediate proc ucts C onsumer go ods Equipment Period Total Total 1977 proportion 44.77 25.52 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 133.3 134.8 135.1 134.5 135.5 136.2 137.9 138.4 137.8 139.3 139.1 139.2 139.5 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.7 125.5 126.4 126.7 125.5 127.3 127.2 128.9 129.4 127.7 129.0 129.1 129.3 129.8 June July Aug Sept Oet r Nov r Dec r 1988: 1 Jan" Durable goods Nondurable goods 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 118.8 121.0 119.8 116.7 120.1 117.4 120.4 121.2 118.6 124.3 123.7 120.3 120.8 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.5 128.0 128.4 129.3 128.7 130.0 130.9 132.1 132.5 131.0 130.8 131.1 132.6 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.8 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.4 143.5 146.0 146.2 146.4 146.3 148.1 149.7 150.2 151.2 153.0 152.4 152.4 138.6 141.7 141.9 142.1 141.7 144.2 145.6 145.6 146.3 148.7 148.3 148.7 133.1 152.4 148.6 Total ' Business Defense and space equipment 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 189.1 187.3 188.9 188.6 189.2 189.3 188.6 188.7 189.1 189.8 190.3 189.8 189.7 190.2 Total 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.5 138.8 139.9 140.9 140.3 141.8 143.3 145.0 145.3 144.9 146.1 147.2 147.7 148.2 Construction supplies 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.6 130.3 130.0 130.4 128.2 129.1 131.5 133.1 132.5 132.3 133.3 134.0 134.6 134.6 Business supplies 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.6 146.0 148.4 149.9 150.6 152.6 153.4 155.2 156.3 155.6 157.1 158.5 158.8 Total Energy 42.28 11.69 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 114.9 114.9 115.2 115.9 116.3 117.2 118.5 119.4 119.7 121.2 122.2 123.3 123.4 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.7 99.3 98.6 97.2 97.8 98.7 99.4 99.0 100.9 100.2 101.8 102.4 101.3 101.6 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nc ndurable manufactu res Durable m anufactures Transp ortation equi] ment Primary metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 r 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 1988: Jan " 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.5 72.8 75.1 77.0 76.1 77.0 78.8 81.4 85.1 84.5 90.6 90.0 92.6 91.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.8 59.5 62.3 65.4 65.0 65.7 68.3 70.9 76.0 74.6 82.0 79.7 85.0 Fabricated metal products 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 108.4 108.3 110.5 109.9 108.5 111.1 111.1 110.1 111.1 113.5 113.8 115.5 116.0 Nonelectrical machinery 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.5 143.4 145.5 148.5 150.4 149.7 151.8 155.3 154.3 156.6 158.0 157.3 158.6 159.2 Electrical machinery 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.2 170.4 171.0 168.5 168.4 171.1 170.5 172.5 174.3 173.4 175.5 175.7 175.3 176.3 Total 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 129.0 132.7 132.2 127.8 129.4 126.5 127.6 128.1 125.5 132.0 130.4 128.4 128.0 Motor vehicles and parts 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 112.0 117.7 116.5 109.8 112.0 107.4 109.4 109.1 105.6 116.0 114.0 110.5 109.0 Lumber and products 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.5 128.5 129.6 128.9 127.8 130.3 131.1 132.8 131.1 126.9 129.8 134.0 135.8 Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Poods 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.0 166.3 164.4 167.6 169.2 171.4 174.1 174.0 174.7 174.9 175.2 175.6 175.9 178.0 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.1 136.4 135.7 135.3 137.3 138.1 139.3 140.8 142.3 142.4 141.5 144.2 146.8 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.7 134.6 136.4 137.3 136.0 137.4 137.7 138.5 138.8 139.5 138.0 138.4 139.4 106.1 106.5 105.4 105.3 106.4 107.7 109.7 108.4 107.6 108.0 109.3 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Resi ential Total New housing Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (19*2 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (mmions oi square feet) I illions of dollars 1979 252.4 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 251.7 193.3 260.2 246.6 203.6 281.3 227.5 328.6 356.0 388.8 398.9 271.0 291.7 316.6 r 200.7 192.9 323.6 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 197.3 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 73.5 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.5 50.5 51.5 52.8 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.3 72.2 75.3 70.4 72.8 71.3 69.8 73.8 72.0 72.6 75.2 74.1 74.2 79.1 75.7 52.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 51.7 51.4 53.2 54.4 53.8 53.7 54.8 56.5 74.5 75.2 76.1 75.7 75.3 72.9 74.6 73.0 77.9 76.8 77.4 78.1 r !58 r !59 r !67 r !57 r !57 r !67 r !65 r !74 r !60 r 157 157 911 1,012 74.5 55.1 74.3 145 833 42.0 46.7 100 100 124 M36 r !50 !58 r 162 Annual rates 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 310.2 401.6 326.5 388.3 396.2 396.7 397.2 398.5 402.9 402.8 403.5 312.2 320.5 321.4 Novr Dec r 405.1 406.8 324.3 323.8 329.8 324.9 326.7 327.7 328.7 Jan " 395.2 321.0 June July Aug Sept Oct 1988: 384.7 187.8 203.1 190.8 199.5 195.9 200.9 197.0 198.8 193.9 196.5 137.3 137.0 139.5 139.7 139.4 138.2 137.9 138.2 140.0 141.0 142.4 143.4 191.3 139.1 198.0 200.2 1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. 2 Includes hotels and motels. 3 F.W. Dodge series. 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,004 109 97 Annual rates !64 r 969 885 926 r 938 r r r 921 ' 1,011 r r l,017 l,016 ' 1,032 r 987 NOTE.—F.W. Dodge construction contracts series revised. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information System Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New prh ate homes New private housing units Units started, irv type of structure Period Total 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,149.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987r 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.6 2-4 units 5 or more units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.9 Units authorized 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,539.0 Units compieted Homes sold 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,664.1 709 545 1,956 1,726 1,689 1,830 1,621 1,601 1,698 1,666 1,581 1,549 1,562 1,635 '719 Homes for sale at end of period 1 3 398 336 272 251 300 353 346 357 364 r 357 436 412 623 639 688 750 672 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 Seasona .y adjusted annu al rates 1987: Dec ' 1,245 1,285 1,206 1,201 1,125 1,086 1,142 1,109 1,211 1,105 1,129 1,041 79 74 85 r 66 r 65 85 59 r 58 r 49 67 51 49 Jan » 1,377 1,011 51 June July Aug Sept Oct r Novr 1988: r 1,804 r 1,809 r 1,723 ' 1,635 ' 1,599 ' 1,583 r 1,594 r 1,583 ' 1,679 1,538 1,661 1,404 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1 2 r Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. r 416 r 419 366 481 314 1,652 1,676 1,719 1,598 1,493 1,517 1,487 1,502 1,502 1,463 1,469 1,361 315 1,250 480 450 r 432 r 368 409 r 412 r r 393 r r r 738 720 728 649 r 358 358 359 356 644 653 631 588 359 359 361 361 360 361 364 535 369 640 672 r 673 r 7.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Seasonally adjusted housing starts and sales revised beginning 1985. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In December, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.2 percent, while inventories rose $5.9 billion. In January, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.5 percent, following a rise of 1.2 percent in December. BILLI DNS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC3 SCALE) BILLIC)NS OF DOLL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE) 800 220 X 200 — ,<" 700 .—— " ^~~~ 600 _ 180 \ 1 MANU FACTURING AND TRAC E INVENTOR IES r - 160 ^| ,—^v == r^ ^—- ^ TAIL INVENT ORIES — x^ — _ 140 500 f \ "" ** ^ •- -v/ " A M ^UFACTUR NG k\•JD TRADE St ^LES -•-"* 120 /"" 400 —*±.——— — -— -—-•'" •" *• — * *"* ~ A_/". , _ _ - * - - ""A (ETAIL SALES — iiiiiliini lllllllllll 80 300 lllllllllll lllllllllll imiliim RATIC)* 1 80 1.60 200 _ _ INVENTCDRY-SALES RATIO — -^***^»y /•» (p^n 1.40 MANUF ACTURING ANC) TRADE - RETAI 1.20 lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll 1984 1985 1987 1986 1 1 1 \ 1 1 1 p 1 1 ,,,,,),,,,, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.00 1984 1988 1985 1986 1987 SEASONALLY ADJU STED OURCE; DEPARTME NT OF COMMERCE s Man uf act uring and trac e 1 M M 1 1n i u 1988 COUNCIL OF ECO ^OMiC ADVISERS Sales Inven- Inventories 3 Sales 2 348,746 369,266 408,721 419,459 425,752 574,126 589,280 641,328 650,695 652,624 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,563 115,109 129,803 140,865 144,244 147,352 443,623 652,624 118,462 147,352 Inventory- ales ratio 4 He tail Who esale Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores 3 Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally idjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' 1986: Dec 1987: T Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec p 1988: Jan p 1 r 424,236 * 658,570 660,470 443,169 663,010 445,032 444,357 665,877 671,609 446,282 451,734 674,753 452,652 677,743 678,442 457,499 462,434 682,323 462,411 689,926 696,416 460,616 466,234 702,303 116,545 123,281 123,009 123,439 124,486 124,836 126,196 128,164 129,912 130,384 127,400 127,419 28,169 33,161 38,948 43,165 47,338 60,937 64,438 68,499 71,803 73,863 134,509 147,325 166,300 179,671 187,034 52,523 75,164 187,034 118,049 124,280 124,593 124,960 124,867 126,307 127,061 128,931 126,790 125,631 125,990 r 127,459 43,481 47,365 47,942 48,135 47,783 48,981 49,735 51,143 49,706 48,660 48,786 r 49,692 " 74,568 76,915 76,651 76,825 77,084 77,326 77,326 77,788 77,084 76,971 77,204 ' 77,767 189,000 190,527 193,355 195,042 197,088 200,039 201,762 201,826 202,408 204,740 207,317 210,464 128,078 50,319 77,759 89,107 97,599 107,448 114,968 121,201 128,196 149,347 149,408 149,565 150,050 152,673 153,093 152,648 151,222 153,245 156,632 157,287 158,183 127,687 T See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. Data are on a current-cost basis beginning December 1980 for wholesale and retail and beginning January 1982 for manufacturing; not comparable with data for prior periods. 2 3 20 r 4 61,911 70,092 80,737 90,791 94,930 72,598 77,233 85,563 88,880 92,104 1.67 1.56 1.52 1.54 1.54 94,930 92,104 1.47 96,606 97,831 99,293 99,767 101,876 103,541 104,385 104,044 104,445 106,473 108,252 110,003 92,394 92,696 94,062 95,275 95,212 96,498 97,377 97,782 97,963 98,267 99,065 100,461 1.55 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.51 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1.49 1.44 1.48 1.50 1.54 1.46 r 1.60 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.58 1.59 1.57 1.60 1.63 1.65 1.65 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In January, manufacturers' shipments and new orders fell; inventories and unfilled orders rose. BILLIC)NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIC3NS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC3 SCALE) 280 240 440 200 SHIPME NTS 1—r"1 ' • 160 1 DURABLE GOODS- _^ 200 —-Li-..-.* '•~~~-'J^. 80 ~*~ 280 — TOTAL- 120 — INVENT ORIES 360 —^— \ TOTAL .--•— 120 \ 60 !•• ONDURABLE GOODS miiliiin n u i l n m 1 1 1 ' 1 1f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 f 1 1 j f [ 1 1 1 11 80 BILLIC)NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2BU 240 . —-" DURABLE C OODS 160 I \ NONDURABLE C oops . Y- 60 — NEWO *DERS ?nn -_——_-- _—~160 r h-_^~-TOTAL — —-—--"""^ RATIO » 2.20 ' INVENTO RY-SHIPME NTS RATIC 2.00 120 DU! iABLE GOOD)S —- 1.80 — -•c ' 80 1.60 - ^"--^^_ L—1 NONDURA 3LE GOODS 1.40 60 1 1 II till 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 j 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1M 111 M 1 1985 1 11M 1 1111 1 1987 1986 1.20 Minium 1988 iniiiti in 1984 l|MllllllI 1985 1986 1987 1988 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ftManufacturers new orders i Manufa cturers' inver tories 2 Manufa cturers' shipinents l Durabl 2 goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Total Total Capital goods industries, Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 defense Millions 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987" 1986: Decr 1987: Jan r Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov ' Dee" 1988: Jan" 1 154,391 168,129 163,350 171,242 187,869 189,928 189,442 200,695 197,474 189,642 195,608 197,430 195,958 196,929 200,591 199,395 200,404 205,732 206,396 207,226 211,356 207,691 77,550 83,872 79,352 84,956 96,623 98,930 100,142 105,300 106,394 99,255 103,601 104,750 102,747 102,477 104,476 103,032 104,135 108,433 108,251 108,378 r 113,026 109,100 76,841 84,257 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,997 89,300 95,395 91,080 90,387 92,007 92,680 93,211 94,452 96,115 96,363 96,269 97,299 98,145 98,848 98,330 98,591 264,281 282,645 311,421 312,152 334,163 326,780 r 318,238 333,656 318,238 320,223 320,535 320,090 320,785 321,848 321,621 323,333 325,394 326,670 328,554 331,812 333,656 336,340 2 of do Jars, 174,620 186,347 200,711 200,220 218,524 213,750 r 207,854 216,753 207,854 2 208,935 208,644 207,987 208,683 209,096 208,654 209,951 210,921 211,680 213,436 215,931 216,753 218,773 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. End of period. Data beginning 1982 are on a current-cost basis, and are not comparable with data for prior periods. 3 End of period. 2 seasoilally adjust 3d 89,661 96,298 110,710 111,932 115,639 113,030 r 110,384 116,903 110,384 111,288 111,891 112,103 112,102 112,752 112,967 113,382 114,473 114,990 115,118 115,881 116,903 117,567 2 156,161 167,752 161,600 173,915 190,065 190,631 189,482 203,196 196,894 187,629 r 194,485 199,399 200,624 201,397 205,454 206,065 203,157 206,719 209,399 209,626 213,822 212,571 79,360 83,553 77,676 87,485 98,875 99,600 100,131 107,601 105,681 96,913 101,932 106,213 106,977 106,992 109,181 109,213 106,678 109,345 111,095 110,949 r 115,620 113,861 23,259 24,050 21,469 22,143 26,714 26,970 26,671 29,632 29,142 26,771 26,856 27,396 28,310 30,031 29,987 31,982 29,540 29,753 30,416 30,085 ' 33,879 34,746 76,801 84,199 83,924 86,431 91,189 91,030 89,351 95,595 91,213 90,716 r 92,553 93,186 93,647 94,405 96,273 96,852 96,479 97,374 98,304 98,677 98,202 98,710 323,393 319,094 306,302 338,849 365,177 373,495 * 372,974 403,496 372,974 370,961 369,251 371,220 375,886 380,354 385,217 391,887 394,640 395,627 398,630 401,030 403,496 408,376 1.67 1.65 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.61 1.69 1.64 1.62 1.64 1.63 1.60 1.62 1.62 1.59 1.59 1.60 1.58 1.62 4 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Data beginning 3982 are not comparable with data for prior periods (see footnote 2 regarding inventories). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 1.7 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.4 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2 percent. (Series revised.) INDE X, 1982=100 RATIO SCALE) 120 s EASONALLY INDEX, 1982 == 100 (RATIO SC-ALE) 120 ADJUSTE D FINISHED) GOODS PRI CES CON,5UMER FO ODS CAPITA L 110 \ /^>c/--S.-»' _-- -*~Tj s^ — "^ 100 'j}*^~~ ••' \ s rVvC" . , __/ " 110 ^/-~^~~\ \\r-^s' • \ ~* crONSUMER GC ODS E XCLUDING FO ODS ^/ / ; i N i /^~"V y r^r—L™-*"^^^^7^ 4t- . -1I—'*" /*' ^>~~~^/f* \-J' = __^ * ^^* *-- EQUIPMENT X /—' / —~ TOTAL - FINISHED • - GOODS - 100 ^^' f/ j /.< d / f/ t fjf's' " i- jT / ' '' Illllilllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1980 1981 1982 imilmi! imiiimi Illllilllll urn inn mil urn imilmii 1985 1984 1983 1986 1987 >OURCE: DEPARTMEN OF LABOR 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fim shed goods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 " 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1988: Jan 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 103.9 104.1 104.5 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.7 106.0 106.4 106.2 106.1 105.7 108.0 108.2 108.2 109.6 110.8 110.7 110.3 109.5 110.2 109.8 110.1 108.6 102.5 102.7 103.3 103.6 103.5 103.6 104.2 104.8 105.2 105.0 104.8 104.8 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 98.8 99.1 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.3 101.0 101.7 102.0 101.9 101.7 101.6 106.1 110.5 104.6 101.2 88.0 87.1 Durable 85.8 88.6 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.4 95.3 96.3 96.4 96.2 96.0 96.0 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.4 111.5 111.4 111.6 111.9 112.5 112.2 112.1 112.3 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 101.8 102.1 102.6 103.3 103.6 103.7 104.1 104.3 104.7 104.5 104.4 103.9 95.3 112.5 104.3 Nondurable 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 111.4 110.4 110.8 111.3 111.2 111.3 111.5 111.5 112.2 112.4 112.0 111.8 112.2 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Note.—Beginning with data for January 1988, the reference base was changed from 1967 — 100 to 1982—100, and new seasonal factors were calculated. 22 Capital equipment finished consumer goods Consumer gc ods Total 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.8 92.3 93.1 In term ediate ma aerials Cnide maten als Foods and feeds ' Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Total F nished goc ds excluding consumer foocIs Total 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 105.5 99.0 99.6 99.8 100.2 100.8 101.3 101.9 102.4 102.7 103.2 103.6 103.9 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 95.5 96.3 95.7 97.3 100.2 100.6 100.2 100.0 101.0 100.9 101.0 101.3 104.2 102.6 Other Total 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 99.2 99.8 100.1 100.4 100.9 101.4 102.0 102.6 102.8 103.3 103.8 104.0 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.6 89.1 89.9 90.6 92.3 94.3 94.6 95.6 96.7 96.0 96.1 94.8 94.6 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 92.7 93.3 96.8 100.4 98.7 97.3 97.5 97.5 98.0 95.4 96.2 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 83.3 84.1 84.8 85.4 86.3 87.9 90.3 91.8 90.8 90.6 90.1 89.3 104.3 93.6 97.1 87.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 92.0 Other 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 4.0 percent above its year-earlier level. (Series revised.) INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 110 110 - CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS - \ 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 1980 1982 1981 1984 1983 1985 1 1 1 1 ll I 1986 60 1988 1987 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All it .ms 1 T ansportat on Housing All She Her Period Not seasonally ed (NSA) Eel. imp.3.... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1987: Jan Feb.... Mar.... Apr.... May ... June .. July... Aug ... Sept... Oct Nov.... Dec.... 1988: Jan 1 100.0 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 115.7 Seasonally adust- Food Total Total ed 111.4 111.8 112.3 112.8 113.2 113.5 113.8 114.3 114.6 115.0 115.3 115.5 115.9 16.1 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 111.9 112.1 112.3 112.7 113.3 113.9 113.8 113.9 114.5 114.7 114.8 115.3 115.6 42.5 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 112.2 112.7 113.0 113.4 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.8 115.0 115.3 115.5 115.9 116.4 (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 7.9 19.7 Renters' 1 27.8 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 118.5 119.1 119.7 120.2 120.6 120.8 121.2 121.9 122.2 122.8 123.1 123.8 124.5 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 125.4 125.9 126.5 126.8 127.1 127.5 128.5 128.9 128.8 128.6 128.8 129.5 130.9 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 121.9 122.5 123.1 123.7 124.2 124.4 124.5 125.4 125.9 126.9 127.2 127.9 128.4 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1987. NOTE.—Beginning with data for January 1988, the reference base was changed from 1967— 100 2 Maintenance and repairs (NSA) 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 110.3 110.2 110.7 110.3 110.2 111.1 113.2 112.9 112.7 112.8 113.5 113.3 113.7 Fuel and other utilities 7.7 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 101.9 102.3 102.3 102.4 102.6 103.0 103.1 103.6 103.3 103.0 103.4 103.3 103.2 Apparel and upkeep 6.3 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 107.3 107.9 109.6 111.0 111.4 110.8 109.9 110.3 111.3 112.7 113.1 112.2 112.3 Total ! New Motor fuel 17.5 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 102.8 103.4 104.0 104.6 104.8 105.3 105.9 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.7 107.4 107.3 4.4 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 114.2 113.0 113.3 113.9 114.1 114.4 114.8 115.0 115.2 115.5 115.7 115.7 115.5 3.3 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 73.4 76.7 78.3 79.1 79.2 80.1 81.1 83.8 83.2 83.0 83.0 81.6 80.4 Medical care Energy 2 5.8 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 126.8 127.3 127.8 128.6 129.3 130.0 130.7 131.3 131.9 132.4 133.0 133.5 134.6 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 84.7 86.4 87.1 87.5 87.6 88.5 88.7 90.2 89.8 89.3 89.6 88.9 88.3 7.6 less food, shelter and energy 48.5 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 115.1 115.3 115.8 116.4 116.7 116.9 117.3 117.6 117.9 118.5 118.9 118.9 119.5 to 1982-84=100, and new seasonal factors were calculated. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Ck nge from pr eceding perk d Change from 3 month s earlier, aim lal rate Change from 6 month s earlier, aim lal rate Consum ;r goods Consum r goods Consum r goods Total finished goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Excluding foods Poods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Oha nge, Dec. to Dec., N 3A 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 -.3 14.1 8.6 4.2 .9 .8 11.4 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 2.1 -6.6 3.9 Or ange, month to mont h 1987: 1988: Jan r Feb ' Mar '. Apr r. May' June T July ' Aug ' Sept ' Oct ' Nov r Deo '. , Jan 0.5 .2 .4 .6 .2 .1 .3 .3 .4 -.2 -.1 -.4 — 1.4 .4 1.7 -0.8 .2 0 1.3 1.1 — .1 -.4 -.7 .6 4 .3 1.1 .3 .8 .3 — .1 .2 .7 .7 .3 -.1 -.2 1.9 2.3 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.5 2.3 2.7 3.8 1.9 0.4 2 .1 .3 .1 — .1 1 0.7 — 2.2 4.8 5.7 -1.3 6.5 7.0 3.6 0 -1.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.S 3.5 3.7 3.7 2.1 1.5 .6 3.3 4.3 2.4 3.7 .4 -1.3 -3.8 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.4 4.5 5.3 4.2 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 .7 1.6 2.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 -2.7 1.1 .8 .4 .4 1.6 6.7 9.3 5.8 4.1 1.6 .3 .0 -.3 — .1 2 .4 -2.6 .2 — .4 2.6 A 3.2 2.7 5.9 -4.7 -2.5 6.1 10.0 9.6 2.6 -4.6 -1.8 1.8 2.2 -5.7 .2 2.6 .7 1.1 .7 1.8 1.1 .7 1.4 4.0 2.2 .7 -.7 -6.4 NOTE.—See note page 22. 3.2 -.4 2.4 2.8 1.4 .1 1.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.5 2,1 2.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing All items J Period Pood Total ' Adden dum: All ite ins, percent shange (annu£ rate) Tr ansportat on Shelter Rent- Home- costs costs Total > Fuel and other utilities Apparel and up- Total ' New Motor Medical care gy2 All items less food, shelter, Prom previ- energy From 3 Prom 6 earlier earlier From year NSA c liange, D ecember 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 12.5 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 10.2 13.7 15.0 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 0.7 .4 .4 .4 0.4 .4 .3 .4 .3 - .3 0.4 .5 .3 .3 .2 0.5 .2 .2 .4 .5 .5 -.1 .1 .5 .2 .1 .4 .5 .2 .3 2 .3 .2 .6 .3 .8 .3 -.1 -.2 .2 .5 .3 .3 .4 .6 1.1 4.8 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 0.7 .4 .5 0.3 .5 .5 .5 .4 _2 .1 0.3 .4 0 .1 .7 .4 .5 -.3 -.3 to Dec 3mber, IS SA 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 7.4 18.8 9.4 6.8 1.5 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.5 -2.4 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 18.7 1.8 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 7.7 5.8 18.0 11.9 1.3 5 .2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 2.9 2.0 .1 1.0 .2 1.7 -.4 -.6 .3 -.8 0.5 2 .4 .5 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .5 .3 0 -.7 .5 13.5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 S.6 9.8 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 S.8 Chiinge, mt nth to nlonth 1987: Jan r Feb ' Mar ' Apr ' May '..... June r.... July '.... Aug '..... .4 .3 .3 .4 .3 Sept r.... Oct '. Nov '..... 1988: Dec T Jan r 1 2 2 .5 .4 .3 .2 .3 .6 2 .5 .2 2 2 .4 .1 0.3 .6 1.6 1.3 .4 -.5 -.8 2 .8 .2 .6 .4 -.1 .9 1.3 .4 -.8 .5 .6 .8 .1 .4 .5 -.3 .4 .1 .1 — .1 .4 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also3 included through 1982. Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. 24 1.6 .6 .6 .6 0.5 -1.1 .3 .5 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .2 0 6.7 4.5 2.1 1.0 .1 1.1 1.2 3.3 -.7 -1.7 0.5 .4 .4 .6 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 .4 .5 .4 — .2 — 1.5 .8 -.2 0 .8 .5 NOTE.—See note page 23. Source: Department ol Labor, Bureau of Lafeor Statistics. 5.2 6.3 5.1 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.9 3.9 4.3 3.5 3.2 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.1 3.6 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.4 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in February were 0.8 percent below their January level. Prices paid by farmers in January were unchanged from their October level. INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SC ALE) INDE)(, 1977= 100 (FtATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID \ 160 „--""""" --——N 140 120 ""* 160 — -rx --^v *C/ f .— - — /' 140 ~~N r PRI CES RECEIVED ~s /^ "*••'' — X 120 — — 100 100 — — 80 80 — mnliim mil inn 60 RATI 0^ 140 100 - IL^ RATIO . 11 60 imiiiiiii 1980 -— N^_ _. .— •— 1 1 I i 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I I 1 1 5981 1982 ./RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO HDEX OF PRICES PA 1J 11! 1 1 1 III 60 RA 140 120 — 100 1 i 1 1 1 i 1 i 11 tmimm !983 1984 80 -- - iiniliiin mm inn mm in n 1 ?988 1986 1985 !987 D. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER 5OURCE: DEPARTMEN OF AGRICULTURE > [1977-100] Pri 3es Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1987: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1988: Jan Peb 1 AH farm products Livestock and products Crops 134 139 133 135 142 128 123 127 122 121 125 128 130 129 127 129 127 132 127 r !31 130 F rices paid by farme s received by farm ers 125 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 99 100 101 108 110 108 103 104 106 120 113 r l!5 no Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. ' 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. 144 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 144 142 147 148 150 149 151 152 147 143 141 r !47 150 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 138 150 159 161 165 163 159 162 (3) (3) 162 (3) (3) 164 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 165 (3) 139 151 159 159 162 157 150 152 (3) (3) 152 (3) (3) 154 (3) (3) 155 (3) (3) 155 (3) Production items 138 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 (3) (3) 147 (3) (3) 148 (3) (3) r !50 (3) (3) 152 (3) Ratio 2 97 92 84 84 86 79 77 78 77 77 77 79 80 79 77 79 77 80 77 79 79 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture, 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Ml rose in January after declining in December; growth in M2 and M3 accelerated. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,600 . M3 3,200 2800 1 I-'-""" 3,20 2 80 Ji ^\ ,400 2,000 2.4C r^ 600 2,00 —j M2 ^=-j r^ 1 60 1 20 - 800 — 700 — ^— -""" - -^ 700 ^ ^>~' 500 ^ 300 _—^-~ __— —- iimlmii iiiiiliini iinilnni 1980 1981 1982 ^--— -T-" 500 Ml M M l l l I I l l IIHlllllll 1983 1984 uiiiliiin 1985 IIIIlllllII mnliim 1986 1987 " AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IIHlllllll 300 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M2 Ml M3 L Debt Perct nt change from yea or 6 months earlier 2 Ml plus overnight Period Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OODs) Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term BPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMT balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) 1 Ml 3.5 3.3 4.9 9.6 9.8 9.0 11.5 14.5 13.8 12.7 9.1 18.9 15.5 14.1 14.8 11.7 4.7 3.4 4.2 3.7 3.1 1.7 2.4 9.5 7.8 6.7 6.0 4.8 3.1 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 8.3 7.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.3 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.3 4.6 13.8 12.2 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.1 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.2 4.8 5.7 1,633.1 1,795.5 1,953.8 2,184.6 2,369.1 2,569.5 2,807.8 2,901.3 1,990.9 2,236.4 2,443.1 2,692.8 2,985.4 3,205.2 3,490.4 3,663.0 2,327.6 2,598.9 2,853.0 3,154.6 3,529.3 3,838.6 4,134.1 4,332.8 3,880.9 4,262.1 4,645.5 5,181.7 5,932.6 6,749.4 7,606.1 8,299.0 6.5 6.4 8.6 9.5 5.8 12.5 1987: Jan " Peb r Mar r Apr r May r . June r July'. Aug r Sept ' Ocf Nov ' Dec r 731.4 731.3 734.2 744.7 746.5 742.1 743.6 746.5 747.5 756.2 752.7 750.8 2,827.8 2,829.3 2,834.3 2,847.3 2,848.9 2,851.3 2,857.6 2,869.0 2,880.3 2,894.6 2,897.0 2,901.3 3,515.1 3,523.8 3,532.5 3,549.7 3,564.6 3,581.9 3,588.8 3,605.9 3,621.0 3,643.5 3,658.5 3,663.0 4,162.9 4,175.2 4,173.9 4,189.5 4,217.9 4,234.2 4,236.2 4,257.2 4,282.0 4,312.0 4,326.0 4,332.8 7,673.6 7,710.9 7,754.3 7,815.6 7,882.8 7,943.2 7,985.9 8,037.5 8,098.0 8,166.2 8,243.4 8,299.0 1988: Jan " 758.9 2,925.0 3,689.1 4.2 NOTE.—Money stock series have been revised to incorporate annual benchmark and seasonal ad- 26 Debt 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.2 10.9 7.4 416.6 443.2 481.3 526.9 557.5 627.0 725.4 750.8 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. M3 8.9 9.9 8.8 11.8 8.4 8.5 Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ' Dec r 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: M2 justments as well as certain technical redefinitions affecting Ml. Data prior to February 1986 are not yet available. See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Other Period Demand deposits Currency checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1986: Dec r .. 1987: Dec 1987: Jan r Feb r Mar r Aprr May r June T July r Aug ' Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r 1988: Jan" Money market mutua fund bala ices General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings depos- its Small denomination time deposits1 Large denomination time deposits ' NSA Term repurchase agreements (KPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA 237.9 242.3 248.3 170.6 272.2 180.4 303.3 196.5 288.0 145.5 178.3 235.2 259.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.4 77.0 299.7 295.9 295.0 299.3 298.9 293.3 292.3 292.1 290.5 295.9 291.3 288.0 243.0 245.1 248.0 253.1 253.9 254.3 255.6 257.2 258.6 260.3 259.4 259.3 84.7 80.1 76.9 76.9 76.0 74.5 75.1 79.2 82.8 85.4 79.0 77.0 209.5 211.5 212.5 212.1 209.9 210.6 210.6 213.1 216.3 218.8 220.9 222.2 84.4 85.1 85.4 83.5 82.1 81.7 83.8 84.0 81.3 82.5 89.5 89.6 575.4 572.0 571.8 566.8 558.6 555.1 549.4 545.0 540.5 533.9 527.7 525.2 380.6 389.7 396.3 404.1 409.5 413.1 415.5 417.8 418.6 417.0 415.0 414.3 850.6 848.1 847.0 845.1 845.9 852.1 859.1 865.9 872.1 883.3 901.7 913.1 440.4 443.1 445.6 448.9 454.0 458.6 460.2 462.4 465.3 472.3 480.5 484.7 83.6 87.2 87.2 94.5 102.8 107.8 107.5 108.0 109.7 106.9 109.7 106.7 85.4 88.0 88.4 83.8 87.0 89.7 85.7 90.5 94.8 93.7 93.1 91.3 198.4 289.9 263.3 81.3 226.2 94.4 524.0 414.4 924.9 482.8 107.1 86.1 116.7 124.1 134.3 148.3 158.5 182.2 183.6 184.4 185.6 187.0 187.8 189.0 190.2 191.4 193.1 195.0 196.5 265.2 234.6 30.5 80.2 104.7 131.4 oavings s Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances p ijommereial paper 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 222.2 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 65.1 84.4 89.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.0 417.4 513.2 572.5 525.2 400.8 344.3 357.3 306.2 288.8 303.6 370.7 414.3 823.3 851.0 783.8 885.3 884.2 853.2 913.1 259.8 302.1 326.2 326.2 417.0 436.1 439.2 484.7 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.7 84.0 106.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.6 83.8 91.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 74.2 79.4 91.6 100.2 133.4 149.4 183.7 212.6 263.5 304.6 284.4 266.7 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.1 45.7 42.4 45.7 98.9 105.3 113.6 133.0 160.3 206.6 229.9 257.3 92.5 93.3 94.2 95.1 95.9 96.6 97.5 98.1 98.4 98.8 99.3 100.2 280.9 280.1 267.8 257.6 261.6 259.7 254.7 257.9 261.8 271.0 272.1 266.7 38.0 38.9 39.6 40.9 42.1 43.1 43.4 43.5 44.3 44.5 45.0 45.7 236.3 239.0 239.9 246.3 253.7 252.8 251.8 251.8 256.6 254.2 251.1 257.3 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—Money stock series have been revised to incorporate annual benchmark and seasonal adjustments as well as certain technical redefinitions affecting Ml. Data prior to February 1986 are 728.7 72.3 37.8 not yet available. Travelers cheeks of nonhank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandiiig 1 Ins tallment credit outstanding end of period) Period Total 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1987: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Decr Dec" Jan Feb Mar Apr r May r. June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec" 261,976 296,483 295,763 310,965 325,136 373,048 446,183 522,805 577,784 612,571 578,578 579,591 579,913 583,595 583,276 587,821 591,175 596,182 602,607 r 605,488 608,122 612,571 Automobile Revolving 98,739 112,475 111,936 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 119,610 125,440 145,874 172,352 208,057 245,055 261,654 T 245,472 246,064 246,290 247,663 247,578 250,130 r 250,980 254,013 257,470 258,710 259,134 261,654 66,007 78,369 99,620 122,021 134,938 145,940 134,916 135,663 135,166 136,706 136,869 137,401 138,741 139,837 141,704 143,142 143,620 145,940 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. Mobile home 16,921 18,207 18,264 19,308 21,728 22,919 24,710 25,488 25,710 25,612 25,852 25,789 25,614 25,626 25,542 25,685 25,860 25,695 25,699 25,677 25,731 25,612 Other 101,114 112,444 110,669 111,297 111,961 125,886 149,501 167,239 172,081 179,365 172,338 r 172,076 172,844 173,600 173,287 174,605 r 175,594 176,637 177,733 177,959 179,637 179,365 Total 40,501 34,507 720 15,202 14,171 47,912 73,135 76,622 54,979 34,787 789 1,013 322 3,682 -319 4,545 3,354 5,006 6,425 2,881 2,634 4,450 Automobile 17,791 13,736 -539 7,674 5,830 20,434 26,478 35,705 36,998 16,599 r 417 592 226 1,373 -85 2,553 850 3,033 3,457 1,240 424 2,520 Revolving 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 21,251 22,401 12,917 11,002 23 746 -496 1,540 163 532 1,340 1,096 1,867 1,438 477 2,321 Mobile home Other 559 1,286 57 1,044 2,420 1,191 1,791 778 222 -98 141 63 -175 12 -84 143 175 -165 4 — 22 54 -118 13,638 11,330 -1,775 628 664 13,925 23,615 17,738 4,842 7,284 255 r -262 768 756 -313 1,318 989 1,043 1,097 225 1,679 -273 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND Commercia! and industrial loans rose 0.5 percent in January. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 TOTAL - — • 2,000 -— — — 1,600 — —" — _.-—-——"""- 1,200 -i _ — ALL COMM ERCIAL BANKS 2,000 _. ' __ — — - \' LOANS AND LEASES _ — — ~~" __----' — - — — — '"' 800 — -• 400 U.S. GC WERNMENT SE CURITIES .A--- — -•^ ^-200 . — --^ __ - ^. ' °* ~, — ••• — s "" \ \ 160 f s- OTHE R SECURITIES — 120 miiimii imiiiim 1980 nmimii 1982 1981 nmimii liiniiiiii 1984 1985 1983 j ,, ,, 1 llilliiliil Minimi! 1987 1986 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al 1 commercial banks > Loans a nd leases Period 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1987: Feb Mar 4pr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1988: Jan" 1 Total loans and securities 2 T Total 2 Commercial and industrial loans Depo sitory institutic ns 3 913.9 967.3 * 1,033.9 r l, 123.7 ' 1,320.4 r 1,456.9 r 1,584.5 1,701.4 325.7 355.4 r 392.6 414.1 r 472.8 r 499.4 r 535.6 565.5 170.6 179.3 r 201.7 r r r 1,239.1 r r 33.69 35.33 36.72 44.74 55.34 56.66 192.0 r !93.1 r 194.4 ' 195.5 ' 195.9 ' 194.3 r 193.7 r 193.7 r 194.2 r 196.2 196.0 56.87 56.85 57.95 58.35 57.71 57.60 57.88 57.83 58.50 57.99 57.44 56.32 56.33 56.96 57.32 56.93 56.93 57.23 56.89 57.55 57.36 56.66 194.0 58.32 57.24 T r r r 548.0 r 546.2 r 549.1 r 551.9 r 554.4 r 553.6 r 554.0 r 559.0 r 562.8 r 563.1 565.5 314.7 r 315.4 r 318.1 r 321.3 r 321.3 r 322.9 r 328.5 r 331.3 r 331.7 r 331.1 333.2 2,242.0 1,713.9 568.5 334.1 154.7 160.9 165.7 170.6 142.6 r !81.2 r 196.1 196.0 259.1 260.0 T 270.5 ' 309.3 333.2 1,613.5 r 1,622.3 r 1,639.6 r 1,649.3 r 1,659.6 r 1,664.1 r 1,676.8 r 1,689.8 r l,701.7 r 1,704.8 1,701.4 3 borrowed 30.81 32.08 34.32 36.11 36.91 46.06 56.17 57.44 r r Data arc prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. 28 r r r 2,120.1 r 2,130.7 r 2,152.0 r 2,166.0 r 2,176.7 r 2,181.3 r 2,199.0 r 2,214.7 r 2,227.6 r '2,232.1 2,230.6 Borr swings (millions of dollars, unad usted) securities Total 1,307.5 r 1,401.3 r 1,553.4 ' 1,722.9 ' 1,908.6 r 2,089.9 2,230.6 r Reserves adjust ed for changes i n res erve reqmrem ents U.S. Government securities Required 29.12 31.44 Data are averages of daily figures. NOTE.—Scries for all commercial banks revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syste 30.29 31.76 33.82 35.55 39.06 45.00 54.80 Total Seasonal 56.41 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 55.66 55.94 57.13 57.27 56.52 56.84 56.84 57.03 57.37 57.06 56.41 556 527 993 1,035 776 672 647 940 943 625 777 71 91 120 196 259 283 279 231 189 126 93 57.02 1,082 59 1,690 636 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total 0 edit market fu nds Internal 1 Total Total 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: H m TV 1987: I n m'' Other 2 Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 33.3 21.0 53.1 61.2 67.3 53.2 49.3 4.7 58.0 60.7 51.7 30.4 309.7 370.6 352.1 368.6 303.5 399.8 488.0 442.4 438.3 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 345.9 383.3 327.5 432.3 518.5 492.3 491.3 285.7 336.3 355.4 351.5 146.3 155.1 145.8 143.9 85.1 146.6 182.2 136.9 139.9 499.9 442.0 597.1 350.9 352.2 342.2 149.0 89.8 254.9 117.6 64.1 201.9 52.2 31.8 12.2 65.3 32.4 214.1 31.4 25.7 53.0 426.3 398.4 540.4 340.5 321.5 330.2 85.8 76.9 210.1 73.6 43.6 56.8 439.3 491.1 487.4 343.2 340.8 351.7 96.1 150.3 135.7 30.8 113.8 77.6 92.3 22.3 58.0 -61.5 91.4 19.5 65.3 36.5 58.1 379.3 423.8 433.9 354.6 346.0 347.8 24.7 77.8 86.1 60.0 67.3 53.5 328.5 352.6 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 85.0 87.8 92.7 94.5 80.4 88.6 121.6 85.2 109.5 22.8 44.0 57.3 -7.5 15.3 33.3 51.8 66.9 39.5 71.7 36.4 31.3 129.0 69.9 76.1 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 217.0 238.3 243.7 286.5 256.5 274.7 370.9 342.8 339.2 92.7 132.3 108.4 82.0 47.0 125.1 117.1 99.7 99.1 18.9 -17.9 -6.2 14.8 24.0 32.5 30.5 49.9 53.0 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. rnors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current habilitif s Curren assets End of period QFR-FRB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total Cash Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities 515.8 550.9 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.447 595.7 463.9 516.3 1.487 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 203.5 211.2 218.2 224.9 1,174.1 1,182.9 1,211.9 1,233.6 636.9 651.7 670.4 682.7 537.1 531.2 541.5 550.9 548.6 551.7 551.1 551.0 1.467 1.466 1.455 1.447 226.3 1,222.3 668.4 553.9 573.4 1.469 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 682.7 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 633.1 671.5 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 666.0 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,233.6 31.0 583.0 603.4 186.7 1,059.6 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 TV 1,722.7 1,734.6 1,763.0 1,784.6 167.5 167.1 176.3 189.2 35.7 35.4 32.6 33.0 650.3 654.1 661.0 671.5 665.7 666.7 675.0 666.0 1986: I" 1,795.7 195.3 31.0 663.4 679.6 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 189.2 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 33.0 1983: IV 1,575.9 171.8 1984: I 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 n in IV 1985: I n m 17.2 16.7 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 431.8 505.1 543.0 ratio * 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 551.0 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 224.9 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,784.6 Net working capital • (Ban 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fel! in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNU [Percent per annum] U.S. 1 reasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) * Constant nlaturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months * 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 7.38 7.73 9.02 9.38 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 Oct Nov Dec 5.59 5.56 5.76 5.75 5.69 5.78 6.00 6.32 6.40 5.81 5.80 6.56 6.58 7.32 8.02 7.82 7.74 8.03 8.67 8.75 7.99 8.13 7.25 7.25 8.02 8.61 8.40 8.45 8.76 9.42 9.52 8.86 8.99 6.66 6.71 7.62 8.10 7.89 7.83 7.90 8.36 8.84 8.09 8.07 8.38 8.36 8.85 9.33 9.32 9.42 9.67 10.18 10.52 10.01 10.11 1988: Jan Feb 5.90 5.69 7.87 7.38 8.67 8.21 7.81 7.55 5.85 5.74 5.63 5.73 5.64 5.62 7.63 7.42 7.34 7.42 7.35 8.39 8.20 8.18 8.29 8.20 7.58 7.53 7.45 7.61 7.60 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 14.029 10.686 1986 1987 1987: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 14.76 11.89 8.89 Discount rate (N.Y. P.E. Bank) 5 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields (PHLBB) 6 7.69 6.33 5.66 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 11.55 10.17 9.31 5.99 6.10 6.50 7.04 7.00 6.72 6.81 7.55 7.96 7.17 7.49 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.75-7.75 8.00-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.25 8.25-8.75 8.75-9.00 9.00^8.75 8.75-8.75 9.23 9.14 9.21 9.37 9.45 9.41 9.38 9.37 9.25 9.30 9.15 9.88 9.40 6.92 6.58 6.00-6.00 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.50 9.13 9.64 9.46 9.42 9.41 9.33 6.78 6.61 6.49 6.64 6.60 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00^-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00 6.00 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 Week ended: 1988: Jan 30 Feb 6 13 20 27 Mar 5 1 Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 30 6.00 6.00 6.00 8.75-8.75 8.75-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50- 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation, COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in February. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 200 180 240 220 200 180 160 160 TT 140 140 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1987 1986 1988 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 15 EAR MINGS-PRICE R ATIO ON COW MON STOCKS (S&P) \^ 10 ^ I 1 1 15 r-\x 1 1980 1 1981 ^- 1 1 I ! 1982 10 [ "" 1 1 1 1983 ^^ ^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 . ^_ 1 1 I 1986 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1 1 1 1987 Co mmon stock price s ' 2 Period Composite Industrial Finance Utility 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 160.23 166.43 163.88 163.00 169.58 174.28 184.18 178.39 157.13 137.21 134.88 189.17 198.95 199.03 198.78 206.61 214.12 226.49 219.52 189.86 163.42 162.19 135.49 138.55 137.91 141.30 150.39 157.48 164.02 158.58 140.95 117.57 115.85 1988: Jan Feb 140.55 145.13 168.47 173.44 121.20 126.09 71.36 74.30 78.19 77.15 72.74 71.64 74.25 74.18 78.20 76.13 73.27 69.86 67.39 70.01 72.89 Week ended: 1988: Jan 30 Feb 6 13 20 27 141.67 142.43 143.01 145.95 148.25 168.56 168.90 170.28 175.09 178.23 121.94 121.91 122.60 127.58 131.08 72.41 73.21 72.97 72.46 72.81 1985 1986 1987 1987: 1 a 3 4 5 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 72.61 60.41 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- 1 Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (19414 Common st ock 5yields (perce nt) Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 43 = 10) 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 1981 1982 1983 1984 1 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Nev ' York Stock Bx( hange indexes {I ec. 31, 1965-5O) Transportation 1 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 268.83 158.41 162.41 150.52 145.97 152.73 152.25 160.94 154.08 137.35 118.30 111.47 2,202.34 2,292.61 2,302.64 2,291.11 2,384.02 2,481.72 2,655.01 2,570.80 2,224.59 1,931.86 1,910.07 280.93 292.47 289.32 289.12 301.38 310.09 329.36 318.66 280.16 245.01 240.96 119.40 124.36 1,947.35 1,980.65 250.48 258.13 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.02 2.93 2.99 3.02 2.92 2.83 2.69 2.78 3.25 3.66 3.71 3.66 3.56 122.21 124.96 123.16 123.46 125.19 1,933.29 1,931.23 1,943.40 2,001.99 2,032.03 252.30 253.20 254.21 259.64 263.83 3.66 3.63 3.57 3.55 3.48 5.20 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.18 4.75 r 4.92 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal 1988, there was a deficit of $65.8 billion compared with a deficit of $66.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 , RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYSiV 1,100 1,000 1,000 OUTLAYS!/ 900 900 800 800 700 700 RECEIPTS.!/ 600 600 500 500 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)i/_ -100 -100 -200 -200 1980 1982 1981 1983 1986 1985 1984 1987 1989 1988 FISCAL YEARS V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] On-budget Total Surplus or deficit (-) Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 1985 1986 1987 r 1988 1 1989 1 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.2 964.7 946.3 990.3 1,004.6 1,055.9 1,094.2 Cumulative total, first 4 months: 2 Fiscal year 1987 Fiscal year 1988 271.8 286.7 338.1 352.5 1976 1 2 r Receipts Outlays (-) or deficit (-) Held by the public -53.6 59.2 -40.2 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 70.5 -13.3 49.7 -54.9 -38.2 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 4.3 -2.0 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 -73.8 78.9 -127.9 207.8 185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 -73.9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 5.0 7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 212.3 -221.2 150.4 -146.7 -129.5 547.9 568.9 640.7 669.3 706.2 -221.6 -237.9 -170.0 -183.5 -174.7 186.2 200.2 213.4 239.9 258.5 176.8 183.5 193.8 203.1 213.3 9.4 16.7 19.6 36.8 45.1 1,827.5 2,130.0 2,355.3 2,581.6 2,825.3 1,509.9 1,746.1 1,897.8 2,025.1 2,152.1 -66.3 205.7 214.9 -70.3 -73.5 66.1 71.7 62.1 64.1 4.0 7.7 2,225.8 2,456.3 1,819.1 1,966.7 -65.8 Estimates from Budget of the United Stales Government, Fiscal Year 1989, February 1988. Prom Monthly Treasury Statement for January 1988. Data for outlays and debt are not strictly 32 Outlays Surplus 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 -73.7 -14.7 r Receipts Gross Fe leral debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit r 769.5 806.8 810.8 852.8 880.9 276.0 288.4 r p comparable with estimates in the Budget for fiscal year 1989. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal 1988, receipts were $14.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $14.4 biiiion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 RECEIPTS-/ J 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 OTHER RECEIPTS 100 ~ """ | | ] 400 ~ • 200 800 ^= " " L-- 300 0 ______ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES • ~~] "V CORPORATION If^ICOME TAXES | | 100 | 0 -OUTLAYS V . 800 NONDEFENSE 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 100 100 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 FISCAL YEARS _!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-biidjjet ; iid off-bu( got receip ts Fiscal year Total Individual Corporation On-bud E;et and of -budget o itlays Nations I defense Social insurance Other Total Total and 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 244.1 599.3 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 1985 1986 1987 ' 1988 ' 1989 ' 734.1 769.1 854.1 Cumulative total, first 4 months: 2 Fiscal year 1987 Fiscal year 1988 1 2 617.8 600.6 666.5 909.2 964.7 271.8 286.7 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 265.2 283.9 303.3 412.4 61.3 63.1 83.9 105.6 117.7 135.3 138.0 21.4 24.9 334.5 349.0 392.6 393.4 209.0 239.4 331.5 354.6 90.9 97.5 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 946.3 73.0 73.1 r 990.3 74.3 1,004.6 78.7 1,055.9 80.1 1,094.2 24.2 26.3 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1989, February 1988. From Monthly Treasury Statement for January 1988. Data for outlays and debt are not strictly comparable with estimates in the Budget for fiscal year 1989. InterHealth affairs Medicare Income Social Net ty t.v est Other military hutions 1976 1977 1978 1979 Department of 338.1 352.5 r 93.0 114.7 119.6 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 16.2 14.2 11.6 9.9 13.3 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 47.8 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 84.0 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.6 135.6 188.8 198.8 207.4 233.8 129.4 136.0 138.6 147.9 151.8 4.7 2.7 12.6 14.1 24.8 24.9 42.4 41.5 67.1 70.1 45.9 50.4 18.5 20.5 204.4 220.fl 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 '245.1 265.5 274.0 277.3 285.5 134.0 157.5 185.3 r 90.6 96.3 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 7.5 7.5 95.1 102.3 116.3 252.7 273.4 282.0 285.4 294.0 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 15.7 17.3 87.9 r r 209.9 227.4 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 6.4 6.4 89.6 97.2 104.5 r 113.6 130.9 153.8 180.7 T 87.8 93.5 15.8 19.3 22.8 219.7 82.8 r 131.8 142.1 126.7 140.1 133.9 50.0 52.4 NOTE,—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1987, according to revised estimates, Federal expenditures rose $44.3 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 ' 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 EXPENDITURES 800 800 600 600 " RECEIPTS" 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -200 -200 I I 1979 I I 1983 1982 1981 1980 I I I 1985 1984 I I 1986 1987 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal C overnment expenditure s Federa Governme nt receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local Net interest paid ments Fiscal year: 1984 1985 1986 1987 Calendar year: 1984 1985 1986 1987 T 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: IV IV IV I n in IV 1986: I n in IV 1987: I n m Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises or deficit Wage accruals less disbursements 711.9 776.4 814.2 905.6 302.5 340.6 358.0 401.9 75.3 74.3 80.3 104.0 54.9 56.0 51.7 54.1 279.2 305.6 324.1 345.6 873.0 961.0 1,027.8 1,055.1 297.2 340.4 368.4 374.9 352.2 374.0 394.8 410.1 90.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 109.7 128.0 134.3 139.6 23.3 20.7 22.9 27.5 726.0 788.6 827.4 917.0 633.1 310.3 346.6 363.0 403.7 303.0 291.9 326.0 361.2 317.5 351.0 356.7 352.8 357.6 365.2 376.4 75.2 55.7 895.6 984.6 1,032.0 1,068.4 310.5 353.9 366.2 380.9 354.9 380.1 399.9 413.2 115.6 55.2 50.9 54.1 284.7 310.6 329.8 348.4 93.6 76.1 83.7 110.8 46.4 70.2 69.7 74.2 73.5 79.1 77.8 78.7 81.3 84.3 90.5 47.6 53.6 56.2 55.0 59.2 53.1 53.7 50.4 49.9 52.1 51.1 236.1 259.8 290.7 304.9 308.8 311.7 316.9 325.8 328.1 330.7 334.5 835.7 347.4 352.5 958.2 969.4 990.8 1,020.2 1,003.7 1,047.1 1,036.1 1,041.2 293.2 276.1 326.0 336.3 339.4 361.9 378.0 356.7 368.4 371.2 368.6 389.9 398.3 405.9 405.7 99.7 106.9 103.3 84.5 86.0 96.3 95.9 98.9 100.2 103.7 105.4 109.6 109.5 102.8 130.2 135.7 142.7 87.2 101.0 125.3 127.7 130.4 129.7 133.0 134.9 135.9 134.2 137.8 21.2 20.5 23.3 28.4 23.4 29.1 21.0 24.5 22.6 15.3 19.7 16.8 34.9 15.3 26.3 .2 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 53.3 54.2 53.9 54.9 341.5 345.2 350.3 356.7 1,049.8 1,062.1 1,058.8 1,103.1 366.9 379.6 382.1 395.1 406.7 412.0 413.4 420.6 102.2 106.0 103.5 101.3 139.5 139.8 142.9 148.4 34.3 24.8 17.2 37.2 .0 .0 .3 -.3 675.5 742.7 795.3 759.0 794.9 805.1 807.6 816.9 832.4 852.5 879.3 922.9 923.0 IV 381.5 415.6 404.3 413.5 103.0 107.9 114.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 34 844.7 930.2 362.1 373.9 377.0 383.7 385.8 0.1 — .1 .0 .1 national income and product accounts -161.0 -184.5 -213.6 -149.5 -169.6 - 196.0 -204.7 — 151.4 -202.6 -169.2 -187.5 -162.9 -210.3 -195.8 -215.0 -196.1 -230.2 -203.7 -188.7 -170.5 -139.2 -135.8 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES 1980 r 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ' ' Canada Japan 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 108.1 119.2 108.6 97.9 104.3 119.0 125.2 126.8 120.4 120.9 125.1 138.9 145.1 144.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July '. Aug r Sepf Oct r Novr Dec ' 126.2 127.1 127.4 127.4 128.2 129.1 130.6 131.2 131.0 132.5 133.0 133.6 127.9 129.3 130.0 130.2 130.8 132.4 132.3 134.4 136.0 136.3 137.3 145.9 Jan? 133.8 r ' ' r » 1987: 1988: 1 United States (jonsumer prices (19f 2-84=100) reduction 1977 = 1 '0; seasonal] ' adjusted Industrial Period 144.9 147.4 145.4 143.7 149.3 151.0 149.3 153.9 157.0 156.9 France Germany 106 106 104 105 105 106 106 108.0 104 107 108 107 109 110 109 109 110 110 110 112.3 115.0 114.5 115.8 116.6 115.1 113.7 118.5 116.3 116.7 116.8 117.5 106.2 103.1 104.1 107.6 112.9 115.1 Italy United Kingdom United States 1 114.4 112.6 99.8 96.4 98.2 101.7 103.1 107.9 109.6 113.0 82.4 109.8 111.7 111.9 111.6 112.4 111.6 113.1 114.6 113.7 115.0 115.0 115.7 108.5 105.8 109.4 110.9 114.4 113.5 117.0 119.5 117.3 121.5 118.0 117.4 112.5 116.7 121.9 119.8 Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 76.1 85.6 94.9 100.4 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 90.9 95.4 98.0 99.9 102.1 104.2 104.9 105.0 72.2 81.9 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 117.2 121.1 86.7 92.2 97.1 100.3 104.6 105.0 63.2 75.4 87.7 100.8 111.5 121.0 128.5 134.4 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.2 114.9 119.7 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 llfl.4 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.3 118.0 118.3 119.2 119.3 119.3 119.7 120.2 120.3 103.9 103.9 104.3 105.2 105.4 105.2 104.7 104.8 105.7 105.7 105.2 105.1 119.6 119.8 120.0 120.6 120.9 121.1 121.4 121.7 121.7 122.0 122.2 122.2 104.6 104.7 104.7 104.9 105.0 105.2 105.2 105.1 104.9 105.0 105.0 105.2 131.6 132.1 132.6 132.9 133.4 133.9 134.3 134.6 135.6 136.8 137.2 137.4 117.5 118.0 118.2 119.6 119.7 119.7 119.6 120.0 120.3 120.9 121.5 121.4 115.7 1205 105.5 138.1 121.4 102.7 104.9 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). Data relate to ail urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data not seasonally adjusted] Merch andise ini ports Mercht ndise exp orts ' Tola domestic and foreign Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Revised statistical month, adjusted2 Statistical month Total 3 F a.s. valu e 1 1 228.9 238.7 233.7 21 2.3 216.4 207.1 195.9 20 0.5 205.6 224.0 218.7 217.9 212.0 206.9 218.8 212.8 213.1 206.4 226.8 216.6 217.3 243.9 252.9 246.4 1986: Dec 1987: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Revised statistical month mon W Tol a l 3 Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Revised statistical month 33.2 27.0 27.0 27.3 22.2 20.2 22.8 33.0 33.5 29.6 31.5 28.3 26.5 29.1 154.3 26 1.0 24 4.0 25 i.O 139.7 132.4 143.1 145.4 148.7 171.5 405.9 366.1 1.9 2.4 12.6 29.9 16.2 18.7 21.1 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.1 20.0 21.0 21.0 23.3 23.9 11.0 13.2 15.0 14.2 27.5 32.3 33.2 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.3 19.5 20.2 21.0 23.0 23.9 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.1 18.7 14.5 14.5 33.3 35.3 35.8 34.3 33.6 37.7 35.5 35.4 16.4 18.4 21.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 13.9 13.7 14.8 14.4 16.2 16.1 32.0 1 Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments are excluded through 1984 and for revised statistical month data for 1985-86; they are included for statistical month data for 1985-86 and for 1987. 2 Adjusted to include undocumented exports to Canada. 3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. For exports data beginning 1987, these include undocumented exports to Canada. 4 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Statistical month Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Total (c.i.f. val ue) Manufactured goods Revised statistical month Statistical month Exports (f.a.s.) less import (customs v aiue) Revised statistical month, adjusted2 Revised statistical month Exports ( .a.s.) less imports (c i.f. value) Revised statistical month, adjusted2 Revised statistical month Gusto tns value 17.8 18.5 16.8 19.4 21.8 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.0 20.2 21.0 21.8 23.8 24.8 Food, beverages, and tobacco Merchandise tr <lde balance Ge neral imp orts 4 (sta :istical ir onth exc ept as nol ed) Domi stic expor ts (statis ical 325.7 345.3 370.0 27.8 18.4 17.8 18.8 21.6 22.4 24.7 24.7 92.9 142.5 144.0 163.4 72.8 221.5 65.0 246.8 48.3 282.1 56.3 312.6 74.4 68.0 27 3.4 254.9 26 9.9 346.4 341.2 352.5 361.6 383.0 387.1 424.1 3.4 21.4 31.3 1.8 3.4 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 4.4 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.9 21.3 24.8 25.7 25.1 25.8 27.2 27.2 25.8 25.6 28.8 28.7 33.7 34.7 33.5 34.8 36.8 37.5 35.9 35.1 39.4 37.0 37.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 5.6 5.6 4.9 5.3 5.0 4.7 27.4 27.8 -22.3 -27.5 -52.4 -101.7 -126.5 - 139.3 -153.0 29.1 5 5 -27.3 -31.8 -57.6 -107.0 -132.5 - 149.4 - 159.5 --34.6 -38.4 -64.2 -122.4 -127.6 -133.6 -139.7 - 156.2 - 166.3 -171.2 -177.6 -12.7 -11.3 -10.7 -12.9 -11.4 -11.5 -12.5 -14.1 -14.8 -14.1 -12.6 -16.0 -11.7 -10.6 -11.0 -13.6 -12.1 -11.8 -12.9 — 14.7 -15.8 -14.3 -12.6 -16.8 -12.1 -11.6 -39.7 -42.6 -69.3 -11.9 -14.4 -12.9 -13.0 -14.0 -15.7 - 16.5 -15.7 -14.1 -17.6 -13.2 -12.2 -12.3 -15.1 -13.6 - 13.3 -14.4 - 16.3 -17.4 - 15.9 — 14.1 -18.4 -13.7 -13.1 5 Revised statistical month exports less statistical month customs value imports. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Statistical month and revised statistical month refer only to data for 1984-86. Data for 1987 are roughly equivalent to revised statistical month data. For mrther { n f ormat j oni see Bureau of the Census release FT900, April and August 1987. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1987, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $40.2 billion; the deficit for the year 1987 was $159.2 billion. (Data revised.) BILL) ONS OF DOLL/ *RS* BILL ONS OF DOLL,URS* 10 10 -x 5 N \/ f^ N*^ -5 5 /^^1 s "-1 Av.-'Vt~- —----__ // ^•\ , "^ BA LANCE ON CURRE NT ACCOUNT x "~' s \ / \\ J \ ^••^ \^-S A\ -5 \\ \ .'' / \ \\ \ ' \ \ \\ ^ ' f N \ ME! CHANDISE TR/ J\ BALANCE -15 \ _ \ BALANCE ON GOODS ANDSERV ICES =sX V -20 l\ \ \\ \ -25 -20 / \\ . \\ A ^, ^, •' * ^fl ** -35 — A\/\ A \ .. N. \*^ \ -^ \ \ '~ \ \ X. v 30 \ \_ •---. *' \ -35 ->-' 40 i i i ! 1979 SEASONALLY ADJUS 1 1 1 1980 1 1 1981 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 :'\ -X.X \s I ! I 1984 -25 \ s; -45 -15 ! 1 1 1 .1985 1 1 1986 1 1 1 40 -45 1987 reo >OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits { + ), debits ( —)] Merchandise 1 Inv estment incom e 3 2 Net travel and transportation receipts Period Exports 184,473 224,269 237,085 1982 211,198 201,820 1983 219,900 1984 215,935 1985 224,361 1986 250,814 1987" 53,614 1984: I n 54,590 55,691 m IV 56,005 55,064 1985: I 54,040 II 53,367 m 53,464 TV 53,878 1986: I II 56,928 56,534 HI 57,021 n r 56,769 1987: I r 59,875 n r 65,110 in TV ".... 69,060 1979 1980 1981 1 2 3 Imports Net balance Receipts Payments -212,009 -249,749 -27,536 -25,480 -27,978 — 36,444 -67,080 -112,522 -122,148 -144,339 -159,201 -25,801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 -24,882 -29,946 -31,206 -36,114 -34,978 -33,651 -37,115 -38,595 r - 38,920 r - 39,742 r - 40,365 -40,174 64,132 72,506 86,411 83,549 77,251 85,910 88,299 88,209 -32,960 -42,120 -52,329 22,831 21,052 21,515 20,512 18,530 21,931 24,174 23,665 24,076 22,013 21,333 20,787 24,950 22,452 22,580 -265,063 -247,642 -268,900 -332,422 -338,083 -368,700 -410,015 -79,415 -83,684 — 84,144 -85,179 -79,946 -83,986 -84,573 -89,578 -88,856 -90,579 -93,649 -95,616 r - 95,689 r -99,617 r - 105,475 -109,234 -54,883 -52,376 -67,419 -62,901 67,365 31,172 30,386 34,082 28,666 24,875 18,491 25,398 20,844 -1,778 -2,935 -997 -2,237 144 -1,183 -992 -274 -243 -4,227 -1,942 -8,604 -3,339 -10,866 -3,662 -9,903 - 15,435 -17,196 -17,978 - 16,809 -16,359 -16,670 -16,055 -13,818 -17,651 -17,426 -15,994 -16,295 -19,450 -20,875 -22,847 7,396 3,856 3,537 3,703 2,171 5,261 8,119 9,847 6,425 4,587 5,339 4,492 5,500 1,577 -267 -273 -615 -255 -798 -242 -782 -794 -1,519 -1,298 -1,054 -815 -495 -37 29 -443 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net -1,874 -2,039 -2,310 -2,381 -2,261 -2,849 -2,892 -2,862 -2,786 -2,278 -2,442 -2,397 -3,219 -2,779 -2,922 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services 6,214 7,793 9,278 9,320 5,138 9,466 14,344 278 9,908 -36,766 9,741 -94,835 9,861 -101,093 11,368 -125,694 2,629 2,513 2,436 2,164 2,296 2,458 2,403 2,704 2,618 2,808 2,784 3,156 2,832 2,633 3,017 -17,923 -25,379 -25,045 -26,486 -22,918 -25,858 -24,370 -27,944 -30,019 -29,588 -32,249 -33,839 -33,681 -38,098 -40,447 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account -991 -6,128 1,873 -7,593 6,884 -7,460 -8,679 -8,956 -9,480 — 46,246 -12,178 -107,013 -15,301 -116,393 -15,658 -141,352 -2,362 -2,461 -3,112 -4,243 -3,296 -3,517 —4,169 -4,321 -3,021 -4,167 -4,334 -4,138 -3,103 -3,092 -2,931 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Note: Merchandise trade data revised; other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -20,285 -27,840 -28,157 -30,729 -26,214 -29,375 -28,539 -32,265 -33,040 -33,755 -36,583 -37,977 -36,784 -41,190 -43,378 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $21.2 billion in the third quarter of 1987 compared with an increase of $15.7 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $48.9 billion in the third quarter compared to an increase of $14.8 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 80 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 60 60 40 40 20 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1979 1987 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the 1 I.S., net [increase /capita! inflov' ( + )]2 t ncrease/capitsd outflow ( — ) Period Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1984: I n in rv 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n m IV 1987: I n ni" -64,331 -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 — 22,291 -31,399 -95,982 -3,602 - 19,395 17,421 -16,712 -1,745 -1,551 -6,936 -21,167 -13,770 -25,529 -24,478 -32,204 15,533 -14,895 — 29,203 U.S. official reserve assets l 2 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 4,965 -1,196 3,131 -3,858 312 -657 566 -799 -1,110 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -115 16 280 132 1,956 3,419 32 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets 59,453 3,746 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 - 100,679 -6,131 -110,058 -5,006 -43,576 -5,476 -13,685 -2,831 -24,711 -1,920 -94,374 -916 2,029 -1,340 -17,490 19,608 1,388 -14,886 -717 -730 -782 -128 -1,067 -6,380 435 -547 -17,473 -240 13,415 -25,303 -242 -1,454 -23,304 15 -32,351 13,352 225 -18,137 -177 29,467 232 Total 38,752 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,467 129,872 213,386 22,120 41,862 2,392 36,094 16,423 25,202 35,020 53,227 36,322 49,042 69,591 58,431 26,754 49,564 68,009 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 2,987 -1,140 34,698 -2,953 -149 -963 7,052 11,060 8,606 2,426 -1,111 2,576 15,568 15,551 1,003 13,953 10,070 359 Other foreign assets 52,416 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,012 178,689 25,073 42,011 3,355 29,042 27,484 16,596 32,594 54,338 33,746 33,475 54,040 57,428 12,802 39,494 67,650 Statistical d iscrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 1,139 1,152 1,093 25,431 24,982 19,942 36,085 11,154 26,837 17,920 23,947 1,767 5,373 8,344 11,347 11,535 5,724 455 205 10,488 10,241 -8,530 11,750 -5,504 6,521 4,572 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 1,417 1,381 -3,851 3,809 1,725 1,712 -3,781 3,766 2,294 -2,044 -4,153 3,904 2,652 -2,009 -5,177 U S official assets, net l (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,517 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 44,919 46,595 48,087 48,517 48,824 45,140 45,070 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING pag^ Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis , 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1988 0—82-679