Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1987
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
100th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators FEBRUARY 1987 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1987 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JOHN MELCHER (Montana) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) ALEX McMILLAN (North Carolina) JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1986, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 1.9 percent (annual rate) or $19.9 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.3 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 0.7 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. ANNUAL RATES 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 GNP IN 1982 DOLLARS 2,800, i2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1979 1 1 1 1980 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1981 1983 1982 1,600 1984 1985 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 14.1 335.9 321.9 671.8 293.2 205.4 364.7 390.5 676.1 276.1 221.5 -45.6 -63.2 -60.0 -66.1 373.4 382.1 389.2 386.2 419.0 445.3 449.1 452.2 693.2 733.3 743.8 763.4 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 -49.4 -77.1 -83.7 -105.3 378.4 370.0 362.3 368.2 427.9 447.1 446.0 473.6 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 708.3 687.3 675.8 665.3 -93.7 -104.5 -108.9 -113.6 374.8 363.0 370.8 380.7 468.5 467.5 479.7 494.3 836.7 860.8 874.0 886.5 2,117.0 409.6 3,545.8 2,315.8 579.8 1984- I ... 3,670.9 3,743.8 3,799.7 3,845.6 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 3,909.3 3,965.0 4,030.5 4,087.7 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 4,149.2 4,175.6 4,240.7 4,260.6 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,799.8 2,822.5 . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nondefense -25.8 3,212.5 n mr rv National defense 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.7 88.6 1983- IV 1986- I Total 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 235.0 259.4 278.1 1982- IV m rv. Total 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 311.3 354.1 366.6 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 684.1 n Imports 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 733.4 815.4 864.5 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,763.1 IV Exports 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 441.4 448.6 477.5 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,765.0 3,998.1 4,206.5 1985- I Federal Net exports 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 382.7 369.8 372.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r n m Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services 4.1 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.7 -78.9 -105.2 State and local Final sales 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 422.2 461.3 497.9 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,700.9 3,987.0 4,198.7 87.7 378.7 3,272.4 54.6 400.0 3,514.8 227.1 233.7 234.5 244.9 56.3 81.6 82.7 84.2 409.8 418.1 426.6 434.3 3,575.4 3,683.9 3,735.3 3,808.9 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 248.9 255.1 265.5 268.0 84.8 85.8 95.5 112.9 443.5 458.1 468.8 474.7 3,883.9 3,945.9 4,027.4 4,090.8 355.7 367.6 369.3 374.0 266.4 278.4 286.8 280.7 89.3 89.2 82.6 93.3 480.9 493.3 504.7 512.5 4,105.4 4,161.2 4,245.2 4,283.1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Gross private domestic investment Exports of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories Federal Net exports 1978 1979... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,489.9 3,585.2 3,675.5 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,246.3 2,324.5 2,419.1 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 422.2 461.4 456.2 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.6 177.2 194.1 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 59.2 9.0 7.6 1982- IV 3,159.3 2,078.7 352.3 115.8 -59.3 1983: IV 3,365.1 2,191.9 390.4 159.9 27.0 -46.2 1984: I 3,444.7 3,487.1 3,507.4 3,520.4 2,213.8 2,246.3 2,253.3 2,271.7 394.4 419.5 427.1 447.6 169.7 173.2 171.2 168.3 85.1 57.0 60.6 33.9 3,547.0 3,567.6 3,603.8 3,622.3 2,292.3 2,311.9 2,342.0 2,351.7 442.7 463.0 463.1 476.9 172.4 175.1 180.0 181.5 3,655.9 3,661.4 3,686.4 3,698.3 2,372.7 2,408.4 2,448.0 2,447.4 457.8 456.8 454.4 455.9 186.3 192.7 197.2 200.2 n in IV 1985: I n in IV 1986: I n mr IV Government purchases of goods and services Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.9 -83.6 -108.2 -148.6 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 369.7 362.3 370.8 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 453.2 470.5 519.4 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 675.2 721.2 747.0 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 291.7 323.6 332.7 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 219.4 235.7 250.5 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.8 82.2 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 383.5 397.6 414.3 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,430.7 3,576.2 3,667.9 11.7 336.0 324.3 660.1 289.5 201.4 88.2 370.6 3,218.6 355.5 401.6 642.2 266.0 211.6 54.4 376.2 3,338.1 -68.6 -87.2 -85.7 -92.7 361.3 367.0 375.5 375.0 429.9 454.2 461.2 467.7 650.2 678.2 681.0 691.5 271.2 296.3 295.6 303.8 214.4 219.0 218.4 225.9 56.8 77.3 77.1 77.9 379.0 381.8 385.4 387.7 3,359.6 3,430.0 3,446.8 3,486.4 23.2 17.4 .7 -5.2 -78.8 -108.1 -113.8 -132.0 369.4 361.2 355.8 362.9 448.2 469.3 469.6 494.8 695.3 708.3 731.8 749.4 305.8 311.4 329.9 347.2 228.0 233.5 242.2 239.3 77.8 77.9 87.6 107.9 389.5 396.9 401.9 402.2 3,523.9 3,550.2 3,603.1 3,627.5 39.9 15.1 2 — 24.4 -125.9 -153.9 -163.3 -151.1 369.2 359.8 371.2 383.2 495.1 513.6 534.5 534.2 725.2 742.2 750.4 770.3 320.4 328.9 330.9 350.5 238.7 249.3 259.4 254.4 81.7 79.5 71.5 96.1 404.8 413.3 419.5 419.7 3,616.1 3,646.3 3,686.7 3,722.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Durable goods ble goods Services Nonresidential fixed 99.2 105.5 107.3 108.2 108.1 109.5 110.7 112.0 95.5 95.3 95.0 95.7 109.1 109.5 109.4 109.7 109.2 109.3 109.6 112.0 109.0 110.2 108.9 104.6 113.9 115.4 116.6 118.0 94.6 91.0 89.7 92.5 111.0 111.8 111.6 106.7 111.6 111.7 110.5 110.3 109.2 112.1 115.4 97.0 118.8 119.4 120.3 122.1 107.6 107.8 108.1 109.4 102.4 102.4 101.8 101.5 110.2 111.7 112.2 113.0 101.5 100.9 99.9 99.4 101.0 102.7 100.7 99.1 103.1 103.1 108.3 98.3 103.1 1984- I 106.6 107.4 108.3 109.2 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 103.3 103.9 104.1 104.1 104.4 104.5 105.1 106.0 109.6 110.9 112.4 113.6 98.4 98.5 98.8 99.0 103.6 106.4 107.5 107.8 110.2 111.1 111.8 112.8 110.4 111.4 112.2 113.4 104.6 104.5 104.5 104.3 106.5 107.2 107.5 108.9 115.0 116.6 118.0 119.5 99.4 99.2 99.3 99.4 113.5 114.0 115.0 115.2 113.7 113.4 114.4 115.3 104.5 104.7 105.9 106.0 108.0 105.8 106.6 107.4 120.6 121.8 123.0 124.1 100.3 100.2 101.0 101.2 105.9 106.7 107.3 108.4 97.5 98.0 97.4 96.7 100.7 105.7 IV ' 106.3 104.5 106.4 107.3 108.3 103.4 104.1 103.6 103.0 101.8 105.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 102.2 100.3 103.8 101.7 1983- IV n m 99.5 104.7 101.3 1982- IV IV 102.0 99.3 97.2 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 98.7 99.3 100.7 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.5 102.1 100.4 State and local 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 110.1 116.0 120.2 100.0 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.7 117.3 122.4 Nondefense 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 107.9 107.7 102.6 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 106.9 1986- I Total National defense 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.1 110.0 111.0 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 105.3 n m Imports 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.7 109.4 110.2 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.9 114.2 IV Exports 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.4 95.4 91.9 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.3 108.2 111.8 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.9 111.5 114.4 1985- I Government purchases of goods and services Federal Residential fixed 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r n m Exports and imports of goods and services CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 1980 1981 02 1.9 on 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.5 6.2 5.2 4.2 12.4 14.9 8.2 6.1 4.9 6.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 6.2 2.6 6.4 1.9 1982 1983 1984 1985. 1986 r. 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: I n m IV 1985- I n m 1986: IV I n m IV * 3.6 6.4 2.7 2.5 .6 7.3 9.8 5.0 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.3 4.1 2.1 3.8 .6 2.8 1.3 Implicit price deflator Personal consumption expenditures Chain price index 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.5 4.1 3.9 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 3.9 1.9 1.5 2.5 2.4 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.6 4.7 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.5 1.8 3.6 .7 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.7 7.1 6.3 10.3 9.7 8.6 9.1 5.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 8.2 6.4 4.6 5.2 10.3 3.3 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 3.6 2.8 4.0 2.5 1.7 2.6 2.6 -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.7 3.5 4.1 5.3 5.5 4.1 6.0 1.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 5.3 1.7 3.6 6.2 6.7 1 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 2.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.9 4.3 1.1 11 3.6 3.2 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 2.4 4.8 4.1 4.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.0 2.8 4.7 1.4 3 3.6 3.6 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.5 4.8 4.1 4.7 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.2 3.0 4.7 1.5 -.4 3.4 3.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) l Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986'"' 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: I n.. ni 1985: IV I II m 1986: 1 IV I n m 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,143.7 2,275.1 2,360.4 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,081.7 2,135.9 2,160.3 2,196.8 2,226.0 2,259.1 2,301.3 2,314.1 2,343.6 2,341.5 2,370.0 1982 dollars 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,030.8 2,105.5 2,143.9 1,760.2 1,940.5 1,993.8 2,031.6 2,038.4 2,059.4 2,075.7 2,094.4 2,124.6 2,127.3 2,141.0 2,135.3 2,142.2 Total cost and profit 2 Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.081 1.101 1.011 1.037 1.044 1.051 1.060 1.067 1.072 1.079 1.083 1.088 1.095 1.097 1.106 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .120 .123 .131 .120 .118 .117 .118 .119 .119 .120 .119 .121 .121 .123 .123 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .096 .098 .099 .100 .101 .101 .102 .104 .103 .104 .106 .103 .107 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 3 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .690 .708 .726 .685 .680 .683 .684 .694 .699 .704 .708 .705 .716 .721 .724 .727 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .041 .043 .041 .042 .037 .037 .039 .042 .043 .044 .043 .042 .042 .042 .041 .040 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .107 .106 .107 .057 .103 .107 .111 .104 .104 .103 .104 .113 .105 .105 .106 .109 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .037 .032 .035 .023 .036 .041 .040 .034 .032 .031 .029 .033 .033 .032 .034 .036 Profits after tax* 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .070 .075 .071 .034 .066 .067 .071 .070 .072 .073 .075 .080 .072 .073 .072 .072 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.224 18.436 18.441 17.383 18.027 18.172 18.275 18.201 18.250 18.285 18.384 18.604 18.472 18.449 18.438 18.445 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.574 13.060 13.379 11.915 12.259 12.406 12.498 12.630 12.758 12.878 13.011 13.121 13.229 13.294 13.347 13.406 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 4 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1981 1982 ... 1983 1984 1985 2,443.5 2 518 4 2,719.5 3,032.0 3 222 3 3,385.1 2,548.2 1986 f. 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984: I II 2,851.5 2,963.2 3,010.3 3,052.3 3,102.0 3,157.0 3,201.4 3,243.4 3,287.3 m rv 1985: I n m IV 1986: 1 3,340 7 3,376.4 3,396.1 II III... IV 1 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 252.7 159.8 188.6 198.0 203.2 209.9 210.3 217.8 222.5 227.7 232.7 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 15.0 15.8 12.4 12.1 8.4 7.1 5.6 6.8 8.1 7.3 8.3 188.0 150.0 213.7 264.7 280.7 298.7 146.1 248.5 262.5 271.7 259.8 265.0 266.4 274.3 296.3 285.6 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 241.9 2,316.3 2,352.1 2,380.9 2,423.6 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 26.5 28.5 19.3 44.5 26.4 24.7 30.4 32.9 33.0 21.6 29.4 2,461.5 2,480.2 2,507.4 2,542.8 24.4 39.5 19.6 22.7 240.9 249.6 258.0 262.2 12.8 16.3 16.2 14.8 296.4 293.1 302.0 239.0 238.3 246.5 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,214.7 2,368.2 2,498.0 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,153.7 2,195.4 2,234.7 2,275.0 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See a!so p. 5.) Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 235.4 164.1 150.7 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213,3 215.4 235.3 226.4 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 222.5 227.7 240.4 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest -24.2 — 10.4 -10.9 -5.5 -.6 6.5 -13.4 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 -14.4 -9.2 17.0 34.5 58.1 56.8 -4.5 25.1 26.7 30.2 36.5 44.7 53.2 58.9 61.0 59.2 248.1 272.3 281.0 307.4 311.4 294.2 266.9 290.2 292.5 305.2 316.1 315.7 316.8 311.4 309.7 307.6 16.5 10.6 6.1 -7.2 57.3 54.8 55.5 59.4 304.9 297.7 292.9 281.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985.. 1986 ' 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984: I II III.... IV 1985: I II in IV 1986: I II Ill IV r Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 92.7 89.1 90.2 90.7 91.9 78.6 89.8 91.9 92.0 91.7 89.4 89.9 89.6 92.8 92.4 93.0 151.6 158.7 169.5 182.2 188.7 196.5 163.4 174.0 178.8 182.5 183.6 183.8 185.8 186.2 189.1 193.5 87.6 78.1 74.2 74.4 196.2 194.9 198.0 196.7 92.7 95.7 107.1 118.9 126.8 137.3 99.1 112.4 115.6 118.3 119.2 122.3 123.5 125.9 126.8 130.9 46.6 48.1 51.6 57.8 63.3 69.1 49.0 53.2 55.2 57.2 58.3 60.4 61.9 62.8 63.7 64.7 740.6 771.0 816.7 870.1 905.1 932.7 786.6 837.9 855.7 870.3 873.9 880.3 888.2 902.3 907.4 922.6 376.5 398.8 421.9 449.9 469.3 492.6 407.0 347.7 354.0 373.3 362.0 100.5 108.9 130.4 154.5 169.2 182.0 11.5.7 144.4 150.4 155.8 154.4 157.6 162.3 165.3 182.8 166.4 430.8 440.4 447.9 454.3 456.9 461.2 468.3 470.4 477.4 119.9 124.4 135.1 147.2 155.2 165.0 126.5 141.1 144.4 148.2 146.6 149.7 151.7 155.0 155.4 158.7 360.8 373.9 414.5 404.3 163.5 172.0 204.7 187.7 132.1 135.8 140.0 141.2 65.3 66.0 69.8 75.4 929.7 928.4 932.8 939.7 484.6 490.3 494.0 501.4 161.3 165.0 166.6 167.2 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2 600 5 2,763.1 21170 2,315.8 2,363.8 2,418.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 239.9 252.7 289.1 331.2 359.3 388.4 2,697.9 2.732.0 2,799.8 2,822.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Motor vehicles asid parts 263.8 310.0 321.2 331.3 331.8 340.4 Other Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Imports 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,186.9 1,214.5 1,239.9 1,266.5 1,294.9 1,319.7 1,346.4 1,383.2 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 6.0 7.4 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.3 8.1 9.4 7.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 1,407.4 1,429.8 1,452.4 1,478.5 7.8 8.1 9.7 7.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.6 934.7 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.0 1,336.1 1,442.0 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $1.2 billion (annual rate) in January, following a rise of $22.8 billion in December. The I increases were affected by several special factors: a pay raise for Federal Government employees, cost-of-living adjustments to several transfer payment programs, and changes in social insurance contributions affected the January change; subsidy payments to farmers affected both the January and December changes. Excluding these factors, personal income increased $10.5 billion in January and $6.4 billion in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 3,200 1,600: 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 400 400 1 200 200 1987 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income * 2 Farm Nonfarm 1979.... 1980 1981 .... 1982 1983.... 1984 1985.... 1986 r.. 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,486.1 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,836.8 1,966.1 2,073.5 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 184.5 196.9 208.8 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 26.5 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 252.7 1986: Jan 3,417.4 3,435.3 3,445.1 3,486.8 3,481.3 3,481.9 3,490.8 3,497.9 3,507.9 3,518.0 3,524.0 3,546.8 3,548.0 2,035.7 2,044.8 2,051.8 2,054.9 2,058.4 2,063.2 2,072.0 2,083.4 2,088.0 2,102.3 2,111.7 2,115.4 2,126.8 203.6 204.5 205.5 206.4 207.3 208.2 209.5 210.4 211.3 212.1 213.0 213.8 214.6 23.4 26.9 22.8 53.0 38.1 27.5 18.3 19.1 21.3 19.0 15.8 33.3 18.8 237.9 241.0 243.8 247.5 249.1 252.2 255.4 257.5 261.0 260.5 262.0 264.0 267.3 Feb Mar May . June July Aue 1987: Oct r Nov r Dec T Jan p 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. \ * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Rental income of persons 4 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 15.0 12.2 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.6 17.1 16.5 16.1 16.0 15.2 14.7 14.3 14.3 Personal dividend income 48.1 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 74.7 76.4 81.2 78.0 79.2 80.0 80.8 81.1 81.5 81.7 82.1 82.3 82.4 82.7 82.9 83.5 Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm persona! income 6 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 446.9 476.2 475.0 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 455.6 487.1 513.7 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 133.5 150.2 160.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.2 3,261.0 3,436.7 481.4 480.7 480.4 480.5 480.1 479.8 477.2 473.7 470.4 467.8 465.2 462.7 461.2 503.4 504.2 506.5 507.9 510.7 511.8 520.3 516.5 518.7 520.5 521.4 523.1 528.1 158.0 158.7 159.1 159.2 159.9 159.3 160.2 160.9 161.1 162.0 162.6 162.7 166.6 3,371.1 3,385.6 3,399.5 3,411.0 3,420.5 3,431.7 3,449.6 3,455.9 3,463.7 3,476.0 3,485.3 3,490.7 3,506.3 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income fell again in the fourth quarter of 1986. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 3,000 2,600 2,600 2,200 2,200 1,800 1,800 1,400 1,400 J 1,000 I I I I I I 1,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 6,000 4,000 4,000 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,486.1 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r. 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 439.6 486.5 514.1 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,670.6 2,828.0 2,972.0 Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,501.9 2,684.7 2,858.0 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 168.7 143.3 114.1 2,167.4 2,212.6 2,214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2,331.9 2,470.6 2,528.0 2,602.3 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,265 11,817 12,305 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 2.1 4.9 1.4 2.0 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.3 5.1 3.8 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 241,523 change in real per capita disposable personal mcome Percent Dollars Billions of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 dollars Per ca,pita personal consumption expenditures 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 C 9,724 9,930 10,421 10,563 10,774 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,243 10,866 11,440 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,475 9,713 10,016 3.8 1.0 -1.1 .5 5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: IV 2,729.2 411.1 2,318.1 2,174.9 143.1 2,276.1 9,929 9,749 9,068 8,904 1.2 6.2 233,466 1983: IV 2,941.8 413.9 2,527.9 2,382.5 145.4 2,392.7 10,725 10,151 9,825 9,299 5.8 235,707 1984: I 3,034.2 3,077.4 3,139.7 3,189.6 421.5 431.2 445.9 460.0 2,612.7 2,646.3 2,693.8 2,729.6 2,433.5 2,488.7 2,520.9 2,564.6 179.2 157.6 172.9 165.0 2,446.9 2,460.3 2,481.9 2,493.1 11,060 11,178 11,350 11,471 10,358 10,392 10,457 10,477 10,007 10,206 10,304 10,453 9,372 9,488 9,494 9,547 9.1 8.4 1.3 2.5 .8 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.0 236,222 236,742 237,347 237,953 3,253.1 3,298.7 3,323.2 3,382.9 497.7 456.4 491.2 500.7 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 2,882.2 2,611.3 2,658.7 2,712.4 2,756.4 144.1 183.6 119.6 125.8 2,495.7 2,550.8 2,524.7 2,540.7 11,555 11,893 11,819 11,999 10,466 10,674 10,537 10,577 10,613 10,779 10,964 11,107 9,613 9,674 9,774 9,790 — .4 5.2 6.5 4.2 4.4 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,206 11,208 11,326 11,579 11,645 9,857 9,985 10,125 10,097 5.0 5.1 2.8 2.5 240,709 241,215 241,789 242,380 n m.... TV 1985: I n m.... IV 1986: I n m.... r IV ... 3,432.6 3,483.3 3,498.8 3,529.6 497.5 504.8 519.0 534.9 2,935.1 2,978.5 2,979.9 2,994.6 2,789.4 2,825.5 2,895.8 2,921.1 145.6 153.1 84.1 73.5 2,581.2 2,625.8 2,605.5 2,596.6 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 12,193 12,348 12,324 12,355 10,723 10,886 10,776 10,713 8.2 -5.0 1.5 5.6 6.2 -4.0 -2.3 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). \ FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $22.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $24.1 billion. BILLIONS Of DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 BILLIONS Of DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 160 —^1 120 ~- c "' " \ GRC SS FARM INC<JMt ^ 1^ ^ 160 ^ 120 80 80 60 M\ 40 s \ -\ v , NET FARM INCC ME N X t i N ^ \ 20 1 1 » 1 \ \ \ \ \ . f i( >i I/ ' *\ *A * / ^\ y f » 1 1 1 1 1 • 1 \ 1 \ 10 „-•' 1 4 ' 40 l\ X » 10 M V 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1980 1979 ! 1981 1 1 1 I i i i 1982 1983 1 1 1 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1986 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total1 Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 p 1986 .. 1984: I n m IV 1985- I . n in IV 1986- I r r n ... mr IV " 1 128.4 150.7 149.3 166.3 163.4 152.4 174.4 166.6 157.0 174.4 168.0 173.8 181.4 170.7 164.7 157.4 173.5 144.5 166.6 147.2 169.6 112.4 131.5 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.5 142.2 142.1 133.2 136.5 141.2 144.1 146.8 137.3 135.1 139.8 156.2 128.2 129.6 129.4 145.7 Livestock and products 53.2 62.3 71.7 72.5 72.4 67.0 69.2 72.7 62.5 60.9 69.8 72.5 73.8 68.1 67.4 71.8 83.6 63.1 63.0 54.1 69.6 59.2 69.2 68.0 69.2 70.2 69.5 72.9 69.4 70.8 75.6 71.4 71.6 73.1 69.2 67.8 68.0 72.6 65.1 66.6 75.3 76.1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash | income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 3 Value of inventory changes 2 1.9 5.0 -6.3 6.5 -1.3 109 6.3 1l -3.0 1.7 7.0 9.0 7.5 3.0 3 -2.6 4.5 -3.2 3.2 -2.7 2.9 Production expenses Current dollars 103.2 123.3 133.1 139.4 140.7 139.5 141.7 136.1 128.3 141.6 142.2 142.0 140.9 139.0 137.1 135.2 133.2 131.1 129.1 127.3 125.7 1982 dollars 3 25.2 27.4 16.1 26.9 22.7 13.0 32.7 30.5 28.7 32.7 25.8 31.8 40.5 31.7 27.6 22.2 40.3 13.5 37.4 19.8 43.9 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982 = 100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 34.9 34.9 18.8 28.6 22.7 12.5 30.2 27.3 25.0 30.7 23.9 29.3 36.9 28.7 24.8 19.8 35.7 11.9 32.8 17.2 38.1 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1986, corporate profits before tax rose $12.7 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $7.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320( BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 280 280 /, _ PROFITS BEFORE TAX ~1 /~\ 240 \ / ^./ 240 \ K^ \/ 200 \ ^ 200 —' f\ _--' 160 \^1r "\ \-'""" "X _„ """"-%, f —> \ \ \ ___/' --', TAX LIABILITY, -/^ """ / ../'/— \ 40 _ "--x. "**% s -'' 120 — -.--•'"' - 80 . -'-•" x- * .''' 40 UNO STRIBUTED PR 5FITS 1 0 - — '"' •~v._.. /' \ 160 A.,s \ ' 120 80 PROF TS AFTER TAX ! I I 1978 1 1 1979 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1981 1980 ! I 1 1 1 1983 1982 1 ! i i i 1 1984 1 | ^ 0 1986 1985 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment i Profits after tax Domestic industries Total z Total Financial Total 3 194.0 1980 1981 1982 202.3 1983 1984 1985 1986 p r 1982- TV 1983: TV .. 1984: I n m . TV 1985- I 1986: 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 241.9 150.7 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 199.2 190.8 206.5 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 183.8 169.7 177.3 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 87.4 73.0 73.4 18.7 102.9 46.8 15.5 175.2 88.6 235.7 205.2 241.5 211.5 191.3 188.8 182.6 183.8 16.6 15.4 13.4 16.1 188.6 196.1 177.8 172.6 95.0 94.6 81.3 78.9 18.2 21.1 21.7 23.2 27.8 29.1 28.9 164.4 162.7 183.6 168.1 172.8 176.3 182.9 70.4 68.2 79.0 74.5 66.7 76.8 75.6 223.3 220.3 235.3 226.4 205.3 TV . 239.0 238.3 246.5 200.6 205.4 I 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 15.4 21.0 29.2 121.6 190.7 213.3 215.4 n m 191.3 211.8 TV 1 See p. 4 2 Includes 3 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Manufacturing 223.4 n HJ Profits before tax Nonfinancial Period Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 49.7 49.7 50.3 33.6 43.1 46.2 51.1 51.0 50.7 48.8 51.1 54.2 45.0 52.1 46.3 53.3 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 235.4 164.1 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 222.5 227.7 240.4 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 95.4 91.8 102.3 59.8 88.1 102.9 101.6 89.3 87.8 87.8 87.1 95.8 96.4 95.7 99.0 104.4 Total 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 140.3 131.4 133.1 104.3 143.4 146.4 144.8 135.8 134.1 126.0 126.7 133.4 139.4 126.9 128.8 135.9 Dividends 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 78.3 81.6 87.8 68.5 73.9 76.0 78.1 79.0 80.1 80.9 81.4 81.6 82.5 85.2 87.5 88.8 89.7 Undistributed profits 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 62.0 49.8 45.3 35.8 69.5 70.4 66.7 56.8 54.0 45.1 45.3 51.8 57.0 41.7 41.2 47.2 Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 55 -.6 6.5 -13.4 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 16.5 10.6 6.1 r -7.2. NOTE.—Corporate profits and related measures for the first 3 quarters of 1986 reflect retroactive provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1986, nonresidential fixed investment rose $2.4 billion "nnual rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment rose $5.0 billion. There was a $22.5 billion decrease in inventories following a decrease of $4.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 PILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 . 500 / " ^-— / •\y ^ ""1 600 500 X A N ^X y / --••. ^ s' '''" —'*' 400 — 300 ONRESIDENTIA Fl>SO INVESTMErJT 300 .,- ^---^ --, / A / / GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT \. 600 • ,,_----' RESIDENTIAL . _,—•"" p|VCn IMWCCT»»CklT 200 - - '" ^^ ~-- ^- — - "*•••• ~ „_ -^ u - ; 1 -100 1 1 1978 1 ! 5 1979 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1982 1981 1980 I 1 I s^ / Vy , 100 /N CHANGE IN BUSINE SS 1 vIVENTORIES o — ,„->"- --^_^ ^\ ~ •-^ \ i i 1 1 1 1983 1984 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1985 1 ! 1 1986 o -100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change iii business I^ixed investmen t Gross private domestic investment 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1982: IV 1983: IV 1984: I IV 1985- I... n ... m IV 1986- I n in r IV .. . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total 515 5 447 3 502 3 662 1 661 1 684 1 409 6 441 9 445 3 491 5 471 8 509 4 5980 6500 676 3 469 5 302 8 322 8 369 2 366 7 3569 416 5 458 2 459 3 354 9 5798 6595 657 5 6703 661 1 6506 667 1 657 4 6695 708 3 687 3 675 8 665 3 5488 5640 597 6 6058 6244 625 2 6480 654 3 672.6 6644 672 8 680 3 687 8 383 9 3882 413 3 421 8 442 9 454 8 437 0 n in Total 439 8 459 2 459 8 4740 459 2 457 5 459 0 461 4 Structures 99 5 113 9 138 5 143 3 124 0 139 3 1548 143 1 137 6 127 4 129 7 139 1 141 4 146 7 150 7 156.1 1550 157 2 154 6 141 5 139 5 1368 Producers' durable equipment 203 3 2089 230 7 2234 232 8 277 3 303.4 316 2 217 3 256.5 258.4 274 1 280.4 296 2 289 1 303.1 3047 316.8 304 6 316.0 319 5 3246 Residential Total 139 1 122 5 122 3 105 1 152 5 181 4 191 8 217 0 114 7 13 0 — 8.3 240 245 71 64 1 11.1 78 599 1649 1758 1844 1840 181 5 1854 1888 1945 1986 205 3 215 3 221 3 2263 31.0 95.5 59 9 64.4 36 7 254 19.1 31 —3 1 43 8 145 45 — 22 5 Nonfarm 79 — 2.4 183 — 23.1 4 56.6 12.2 83 — 51.1 21.3 71.5 568 62.1 359 185 10.4 32 16.7 41 2 105 — 10 3 83 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 1.7 percent below the 1985 level, while spending in 1987 il expected to be 0.9 percent above the 1986 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 r-^ -^- 300 ^^ 200 _ ^ r—f ^ A I INDUSTRIES [-r" _,.-"-""" 300 . — -—- H — —•" 200 __.. NOWAANUFACTURI ^G^ --. *~ — -. .---" 400 — -^~ ' r~~ s s^. . _ _ _ — ""i" 100 <\ANUFACTURI 100 —.--' — — — 80 80 60 60 — 40 40 1 1 1979 ! 1 1 1 i 1980 1 1 i 1981 1 1 1 1 i i i 1 1 1984 1983 1982 1 ! 1985 _!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2J SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 2J J/ -£/ 1 I 1 1986 1987 1 ! i COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Manufacturing Period All industries Total Durable goods Nonmanufacturing Nondurable goods Total ! Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other Total nonfarm business2 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 Surveyed quarterly 1978 1979.... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 4 1987 4 217.76 254.96 282.80 315 22 310.58 804.78 354 44 387.13 380.69 384.24 78.58 95.92 112.33 126 54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144.77 141.95 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.96 69.50 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 74.81 72.44 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 235.91 242.30 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.24 10.11 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.64 18.86 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 48.53 44.42 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 159.50 168.9! 1985: 373.56 387.86 389.23 397.88 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 70.29 74.34 72.99 75.47 76.64 79.91 81.48 82.79 226.62 233.61 234.76 239.61 15.81 16.56 15.89 15.25 16.70 17.45 18.81 19.15 48.44 48.61 48.44 49.79 145.68 150.99 151.62 155.42 146.94 154 25 154.47 158 26 228.62 233 61 234.76 239.61 1986- 1 II III IV4 377.94 37592 374.55 394.34 144.03 141.68 139.21 154.17 68.01 68.33 69.31 74.17 76.02 73.35 69.89 80.00 233.90 234.24 235.34 240.17 12.99 11.23 10.15 10.62 18.22 18.28 19.03 19.02 47.03 46.55 45.90 46,63 155.67 158.18 160.25 163.91 144 03 141.68 139.21 154.17 233 90 234.24 235.34 240.17 1987- I 4 H4 386.82 393.39 141.22 145.23 67.86 72.37 73.36 72.85 245.60 248.16 10.36 10.58 19.85 18.46 46.32 46.90 169.08 172.22 141 22 145.23 245 60 248.16 I II 111 IV 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144 77 141.95 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ( "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufactiiring that is surveyed annually. 10 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.85 23591 242.30 Surveyed annual- ly 3 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 38.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF LABOR FORCE In January, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 374,000 and unemployment rose 74,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 1987 * 16 YEARS OF, AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1986: Jan* ... Feb Mar Apr May June.... July Aug Sept .... Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan 1 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 181,361 181,512 181,678 181,843 181,998 182,183 182,354 182,525 182,713 182,935 183,114 183,297 183,575 Civilian employment Resident T nhnr fntvp Forces NSA Armed Forces 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1^697 1,706 1,706 1,691 1,691 1,693 1,695 1,687 1,680 1,672 1,697 1,716 1,749 1,751 1,750 1,748 106,559 108,544 110^315 111,872 113,226 1151241 117|l67 119,540 118,485 118,733 118,880 118,987 119,274 119,685 119,789 119,821 119,988 120,163 120,426 120,336 120,782 including Employment including resident Armed Forces Civilian labor force 100,421 100,907 102^042 101,194 102,510 106J02 108,856 111,303 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111 550 113,544 1 15^461 117,834 110,583 110,248 110,500 110,664 110,852 111,293 111,559 111,764 111,703 111,941 112,183 112,387 112,759 116,794 117,042 117,187 117,292 117,587 118,005 118,117 118,124 118,272 118,414 118,675 118,586 119,034 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of nonimtitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Nonagricultural Total 98,824 99,303 100^397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107450 109,597 108,892 108,557 108,807 108,969 109,165 109,613 109,887 110,067 109,987 110,192 110,432 110,637 111,011 Agricultural Total Part-time for economic reasons 1 15 Total 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97 450 101,685 103^971 106,434 3,373 4,064 4J499 5,852 5 997 5,512 5*334 5,345 6,137 7,637 8*273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 105,612 105,452 105,555 105,770 106,014 106,449 106,763 107,010 106,845 107,030 107,217 107,476 3,145 107,866 5,297 5,214 5,295 5,567 5,569 5,322 5,222 5,269 5,303 5,450 5,319 5,342 7,902 8,485 8,380 8,323 8,422 8,392 8,230 8,057 8,285 8,222 8,243 7,949 5,201 8,023 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3 383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,280 3,105 3,252 3,199 3,151 3,164 3,124 3,057 3,142 3,162 3,215 3,161 weeks and over 1,241 1 871 2,285 3 485 4 210 2 737 2,305 2 232 2,117 2,332 2,243 2,130 2,232 2,299 2,250 2,272 2,373 2,168 2,217 2,171 2,200 Labor force participation rate (percent) Total 2 Civilian 3 64.0 64.1 63.7 63.8 63.9 84.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.2 85.4 65.4 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.5 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 65.1 65.6 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.8 Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because stimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate and civilian unemployment rate were unchanged from their December levels, 6.6 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 s/\'\. N 20 \-'-\ V, \ s TEENAGERS (16-19) <, 20 V x /.,'»/ ^'Vv BLACK K V \ t / 15 15 \ '"• ^ "" Vv"' \ % BLACK AND OTHER 10 —_ -O'x "*\ 10 ALLCI VILIAN WOR <ERS r^H -——>__ ' r /— —«*— x -^ WHITE ll!l|l|ll|l 1983 iniiliini 1984 lllllllllM 1985 we>MEN20YE^ RS AND OVER L \ J **£-K^? ^**>r—«, "T* ^••fc^^V/S— I MEN 20 YEAR S AND OVER miilnm 1986 nmlmn Minimi! imilimi Illllllllll ^987 1983 1984 1985 l![ll!l!|!l 1987 1986 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers l All civilian workers Men 20 years and over 16-19 Black White other years 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 6.6 6.2 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.9 18.2 18.9 18.4 19.3 18.8 18.9 17.9 18.0 18.5 17.7 18.2 17.3 5.8 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.7 13.1 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.3 6.0 5.9 17.7 5.9 12.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 6.7 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.7 1987: Jan 6.6 6.7 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost bv the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. Experienced wage and salary workers 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 12 Black and 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 5.8 7.0 Both 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 Women 20 years and over By selected groups By race By sex and age Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.3 7.9 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.8 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 7.1 6.8 6.6 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 14.6 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.3 14.2 13.7 6.3 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.3 9.9 9.9 9.8 8.9 9.7 9.8 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 8.7 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.8 7.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 14.3 6.3 4.2 9.8 6.4 9.0 7.6 10.1 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.5 10.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 8.8 8.8 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks fell, the percentage for 5-14 weeks rose, and the percentage for 27 weeks and over was unchanged. The mean duration of unemployment was unchanged and the median fell. PER CENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 Nv 50 — ,^\~ r r^' JOB LOSERS 40 40 30 — 30 _ . (EENTRANTS -'"'•>•'' "" -A\\•* " "• ~s^*. 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS —-A-^" ^^--i-A/-L^^ -»"«•—.„•'' JOB LEAVER; 10 10 — iniiiiiiii 0 1987 1983 iiuiiiiiii iniiiiiiii iiiiiljiui 1984 1983 1985 1986 lIUlllllll 1987 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted)' Weekly average, thousands 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 488 460 583 438 377 396 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,692 Sept Oct Nov Dec 7,902 8,485 8,380 8,323 8,422 8,392 8,230 8,057 8,285 8,222 8,243 7,949 42.2 41.7 42.1 42.7 42.4 40.8 41.6 42.3 41.1 41.9 41.2 42.4 31.3 30.8 31.2 31.8 31.4 31.7 30.9 29.7 30.4 31.5 31.8 30.2 12.5 13.5 12.8 11.8 12.5 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.4 11.7 12.7 12.9 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 15.1 14.6 14.8 15.2 14.9 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.2 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.1 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.8 15.0 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 48.2 49.0 50.1 48.4 49.9 50.6 49.1 47.6 48.9 48.7 48.1 48.9 12.4 11.6 11.8 12.8 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.0 26.4 26.7 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.0 26.6 27.4 25.9 26.8 25.8 25.4 13.0 12.7 12.0 12.6 12.4 12.4 11.9 12.6 12.6 11.9 13.1 12.8 2,583 2,592 2,630 2,598 2,655 2,678 2,699 2,713 2,707 2,621 2,565 2,515 382 388 392 379 380 378 379 388 370 357 355 357 3,370 3,295 3,144 2,799 2,556 2,474 2,632 2,483 2,335 2,296 2,478 2,841 1987- Jan 8,023 41.9 31.1 12.5 14.5 15.0 7.0 49.6 11.1 25.7 13.6 2,507 363 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986- Jan Fob Mar May July 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (HE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 448,000 in January. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS 24 I ' ' 100 22 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 90 80 :.... -\-'\ SERVICE-PRODUCING 70 INDUSTRIES 60 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 A.. 20 Mlllllllll UJlIlllllL 1983 1984 Mlllllill! 1985 1986 1987 1987 1983 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Total nonagricultural employment 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,614 100,165 Manufacturing Total 2 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 Construction 4,346 4,188 3,905 Total Durable goods 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 19,378 19,314 19,186 11,505 11,516 11,345 Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities 5,146 7,702 7,873 7,798 7,841 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,684 75,227 8,098 8,061 7,741 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,242 5,286 Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services 5,160 5,298 5,341 17,890 18,619 19,036 5,268 5,555 5,740 5,852 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,360 17,978 5,468 5,689 5,953 6,304 Wholesale trade 5,275 5,358 5,278 Retail trade Total Federal 19,694 20,797 21,974 23,072 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,415 16,735 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,900 24,727 24,930 24,938 3,948 4,383 4,687 4,961 99,296 99,429 99,484 99,783 99,918 99,843 100,105 100,283 100,560 100,826 101,068 101,293 25,101 25,038 24,945 25,038 24,965 24,854 24,869 24,888 24,858 24,865 24,891 24,920 4,901 4,864 4,838 4,972 4,974 4,947 4,980 5,012 5,010 5,001 4,993 4,997 19,303 19,294 19,255 19,245 19,201 19,135 19,121 19,123 19,105 19,118 19,156 19,183 11,466 11,455 11,418 11,415 11,378 11,307 11,294 11,302 11,271 11,266 11,282 11,286 7,837 7,839 7,837 7,830 7,823 7,828 7,827 7,821 7,834 7,852 7,874 7,897 74,195 74,391 74,539 74,745 74,953 74,989 75,236 75,395 75,702 75,961 76,177 76,373 5,286 5,277 5,280 5,266 5,265 5,167 5,288 5,255 5,316 5,316 5,351 5,359 5,830 5,843 5,841 5,864 5,872 5,829 5,849 5,863 5,859 5,864 5,859 5,855 17,734 17,795 17,828 17,851 17,911 17,944 17,992 18,030 18,065 18,143 18,197 18,198 6,123 6,157 6,184 6,228 6,261 6,295 6,334 6,364 6,388 6,409 6,429 6,469 22,585 22,638 22,707 22,825 22,924 23,072 23,176 23,255 23,300 23,359 23,451 23,567 16,637 16,681 16,699 16,711 16,720 16,682 16,597 16,628 16,774 16,870 16,890 16,925 2,918 2,918 2,923 2,914 2,899 2,875 2,866 2,875 2,901 2,896 2,899 2,911 1987: Jan p .. 101,741 25,054 5,139 19,186 11,272 7,914 76,687 5,363 5,874 18,364 6,491 23,684 16,911 2,912 1985 1986 r 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June .. July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov r.. Dec r.. 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Average gross bourlv earnings Manufaeturing Total private nonagricultural ' Total private nonagricultural l Overtime Total 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 Sept Oct Nov * Dec ' 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 40.8 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.6 40.8 40.8 40.7 40.8 40.8 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.75 8.68 8.71 8.73 8.72 8.73 8.74 8.73 8.77 8.76 8.80 8.84 8.82 1987- Jan p 34.7 40.9 3.6 8.83 1984 1985 1986 r 1986' Jan Feb Mar May July Adjusted hourly earnings indexz — total private nonagricultural Percent change 4from a year earlier 5 Index, Manufacturing Current dollars $6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.53 9.73 $6.16 6.66 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 9.65 9.68 9.70 9.68 9.72 9.71 9.73 9.76 9.74 9.77 9.77 9.78 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.3 165.2 169.2 167.3 168.2 168.5 168.4 168.7 169.2 168.9 169.3 169.6 170.0 170.8 170.6 9.78 170.8 1977 dollars 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 94.9 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 2.4 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 3 -.5 .9 93.5 94.4 95.0 r 95.3 r 95.3 95.2 r 95.0 95.1 r 94.9 r 95.0 95.3 95.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.7 -.9 o .9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 .6 1.1 1.5 1.0 94.4 2.0 1.0 r AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Average gross weekly earnings Period Current dollars 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1986- Jan $219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.50 May June July Aue Sept Oct Nov r Dec ' 303.80 303.98 304.68 303.46 303.80 303.28 302.93 305.20 303.97 305.36 307.63 305.17 1987- Jan p . 306.40 Feb Mar Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural l 1977 dollars Current dollars $269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 385.97 396.01 $342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.09 465.75 $138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 175.78 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.8 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 1.2 1.9 .9 14 .3 169.82 170.58 ' 171.84 r !71.83 r !71.54 r 170.57 r 170.38 r 171.46 r 170.20 r 170. 69 171.57 170.01 393.72 393.98 394.79 393.98 395.60 394.23 395.04 398.21 397.39 397.64 398.62 399.02 470.40 448.59 450.06 465.22 464.25 461.15 463.76 467.37 468.61 469.88 470.58 471.10 175.51 175.51 176.09 174.91 174.91 174.60 175.20 176.08 176.66 176.06 177.85 175.42 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 .5 .6 -.5 .4 .9 .7 -.2 .5 .6 -.3 .2 1.0 -.2 169.47 400.00 481.34 174.85 1.0 — .1 $183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 170.88 r r 4 2 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). (Seasonally adjusted consumer price index revised beginning 1982.) Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1 3 Construction 5 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour ot all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output * Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Hours of all persons 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1978 1979 100.8 99.6 100.8 99.3 105.8 107.9 106.0 107.9 104.9 108.3 105.1 108.7 108.5 119.1 108.6 118.9 100.8 99.4 100.9 99.2 107.6 119.5 107.7 119.7 107.3 117.0 107.0 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 .... 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.3 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.4 104.3 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 118.8 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 118.8 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.7 112.8 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.1 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.9 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.1 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.2 98.0 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.8 159.7 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.7 161.0 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.5 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.3 1985 1986 106.4 107.1 104.8 105.5 122.7 125.8 122.5 125.8 115.3 117.5 116.9 119.3 175.3 180.9 174.6 179.9 98.8 100.0 98.4 99.4 164.8 168.9 166.7 170.5 1982: IV 101.0 99.7 105.0 104.2 103.9 104.5 158.3 158.2 r 97.9 156.8 158.7 150.2 151.4 r 98.0 r r 163.0 166.3 r 164.6 168.1 IV 103.8 103.3 113.6 114.1 109.4 110.5 163.6 163.4 98.1 97.9 157.7 158.2 155.2 156.2 1984: I II HI IV 104.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 103.9 104.6 104.4 104.3 116.9 119.0 119.5 120.2 116.9 119.1 119.5 120.2 111.4 112.7 113.3 114.0 112.5 113.8 114.5 115.2 165.9 167.1 169.0 170.6 165.6 166.9 168.7 170.4 98.1 97.9 98.1 98.2 97.9 97.8 158.2 158.3 160.2 161.7 159.4 159.5 161.5 163.3 156.7 157.7 159.0 160.3 157.2 158.4 160.0 161.4 1985: 105.7 106.4 107.3 106.4 104.4 104.9 105.4 104.5 121.3 122.3 123.5 123.8 121.1 122.1 123.3 123.6 114.8 115.0 115.2 116.4 116.0 116.4 116.9 118.2 172.3 174.5 176.4 178.0 172.1 174.0 175.4 177.0 98.4 r 98.6 99.0 r 163.1 164.0 164.4 167.3 164.8 165.9 166.3 169.3 161.4 162.6 163.4 164.6 162.7 164.1 165.2 166.2 107.3 107.4 107.3 106.6 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.1 125.3 125.4 126.0 126.5 125.1 125.3 126.1 126.7 116.8 116.7 117.4 118.7 118.5 118.5 119.4 120.6 179.1 180.4 181.7 182.6 178.3 179.3 180.4 181.6 167.0 168.0 169.3 171.4 168.8 169.6 170.7 172.8 165.3 165.8 167.2 167.0 167.1 167.5 169.0 168.8 1983: I n ni IT 1986- I n... mr IV .... r r 97.9 98.1 98.3 98.3 98.5 98.4 r 99.0 r 99.2 100.2 100.4 100.2 98.8 r 99.7 r 99.6 99.6 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1978 1979 0.8 -1.2 0.8 16 5.8 2.0 6.0 1.9 4.9 3.2 5.1 3.5 8.5 9.7 8.6 9.5 0.8 14 0.9 -1.6 7.6 11.1 7.7 11.2 7.3 9.0 7.0 8.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -.3 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.3 4 1.0 -.6 3.3 1.8 I I 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.1 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 4.9 8.0 g .7 -2.8 1.5 5.7 7 .7 27 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 4.0 27 10 1.6 1.0 — .1 -2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.5 1.8 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.1 2.1 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.5 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.2 1985 1986 1.0 .7 .5 .7 3.3 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.0 4.3 3.2 4.0 3.0 .7 1.2 .4 1.1 3.2 2.5 3.5 2.3 2.9 2.1 3.3 2.2 1982: IT 3.0 2.4 -.5 -1.2 -3.4 -3.5 4.5 5.1 r 3.2 3.7 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.0 4.4 r 1.4 r 2.4 3.0 4.8 3.1 r r .l 8 .7 r .8 1.2 .2 5.0 3.9 3.0 .3 5.1 4.6 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 r 1983: TV 1984: I II m IV 1985: I n in IV 1986- I n in irr.... 2.8 4.4 2.6 1.3 10.4 r 9.8 7.3 8.4 5.3 — .1 2.4 2.9 -.7 -.4 12.2 7.5 1.7 2.5 10.2 7.7 1.6 2.2 7.4 4.8 2.1 2.6 7.6 4.7 2.3 2.6 5.7 2.8 4.6 3.8 5.4 3.2 4.3 4.2 .9 2.7 3.4 -3.2 .3 1.8 2.2 -3.5 3.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 3.2 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.6 .6 .7 4.3 2.9 1.2 1.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 3.2 3.7 3.3 .5 -.4 -2.8 4.3 .5 -.3 -2.2 4.7 .3 2.0 1.7 5.1 .6 2.6 1.9 1.4 -.2 2.4 4.6 .8 .1 2.9 4.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.1 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 q 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for a!l urban consumers. (Seasonally 16 r .3 -1.2 r r r .5 <• i.o r r .5 r .9 r .5 r 2.0 r -.l .6 .O .9 r -.2 3.3 2.4 1.0 7.2 3.6 2.7 1.0 7.4 2.7 3.0 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 '.9 4.2 r .4 -.6 '1.5 3.6 r -.l .0 n 2.3 3.3 5.0 12 1.8 2.6 5.1 1.8 1.2 3.4 -.5 2.3 1.0 3.6 -.4 r r r r adjusted consumer price index revised beginning 1982.) 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based oil indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in January, following a rise of 0.3 percent in December. The index for January was 0.6 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 220 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION _ FINAL PRODUCTS 200 DEFENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT 120 180 - 160 100 -^ n,,il 140 _ Illllllllll 1 II e ll II 1 II mill mill "r*^ V-i ^ f~ 1 — -'" 120 : MONDURABL = -^— CONSUMER GOODS .,/''' 100 - I 11 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1I 100 140 EQUIPMENT ^ "N-O _^ r^~~ MANUF ACTURING PRODUCT r>N C>URABLE _^ 120 140! ——' 111 1 him 1 11 1 1 h1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 i I II 1 1 PERCENT* irtiilimi millmn ^ 90 _ MANUF ^TURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE_ - UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION \^<^c> 100 ^^—•—. 80 120 i^H niiilitiii 1983 M mtiiiiiii 70 ^--1 Illtll 1984 ^ , 60 mnl 1983 iiiiiliiiti iimliim 1985 1986 1987 1 1984 mnlmii i m i h 1 1 1 1 miilinii 1985 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1986 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977 = 100 Capacity utilization rate, percent l Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100 Total industrial production Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Manufacturing Industrial materials Sept Oct T Nov ' Dec r 100.0 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 125.0 126.2 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 126.4 3.9 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 2.0 1.0 2.9 1.7 .2 1.2 .5 .5 1.2 .5 .5 1.4 .9 .7 84.21 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 129.4 128.7 127.2 128.7 128.2 128.3 129.2 129.5 129.5 129.9 130.4 131.0 49.10 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.3 127.9 129.5 128.7 126.8 128.1 127.0 126.2 127.4 127.5 128.1 128.1 128.6 129.3 35.11 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 125.1 130.8 129.3 128.7 127.7 129.6 129.9 131.2 131.7 132.2 131.4 132.3 132.8 133.5 9.83 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.8 99.4 108.1 105.1 103.0 101.0 99.8 98.9 97.1 96.4 96.2 95.6 96.7 95.4 5.96 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.9 109.7 112.5 109.7 109.3 109.4 108.5 108.6 109.7 108.3 108.3 109.3 111.2 111.2 84.6 79.3 78.3 70.3 74.0 80.5 80.1 79.8 80.8 80.2 79.1 79.9 79.4 79.3 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.6 79.8 80.1 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.0 80.2 78.5 80.1 79.6 78.5 78.7 78.1 78.0 78.3 77.9 78.1 77.8 78.4 78.4 1987- Jan p 126.9 .6 131.8 129.8 134.5 95.6 111.0 80.3 78.4 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986r 1986- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Oct r Nov r Dec r 1987: Jan p 1 44.77 25.52 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114 7 127.3 131.1 132.3 133.9 132.8 130.6 132.1 131.6 131.1 132.0 132.6 132.2 132.7 133.1 133.9 134.6 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 120.2 124.4 123.8 123.3 121.8 124.5 124.3 124.4 125.2 125.1 124.2 124.7 125.4 127.1 127.8 Durable goods 6.89 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.9 116.1 116.0 116.6 112.4 115.9 113.8 114.3 116.3 115.7 117.4 116.3 117.8 121.1 121.3 Nondurable goods Total ' Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies 18.63 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.9 127.5 19.25 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.4 142.8 14.34 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 139.6 138.7 3.67 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 170.6 180.2 12.94 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 130.0 136.4 5.95 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.3 124.6 126.6 125.8 125.3 127.7 128.1 128.1 128.4 128.6 126.7 127.8 128.2 129.3 130.1 147.5 145.4 142.3 142.3 141.2 140.0 141.0 142.5 142.8 143.3 143.4 143.0 143.7 141.5 140.5 137.7 138.6 137.9 136.6 137.9 139.3 139.3 139.1 138.9 138.3 138.9 178.7 176.3 176.2 178.0 178.0 178.4 179.5 181.0 182.0 184.6 184.9 185.3 186.7 134.2 133.4 133.3 134.5 135.1 137.0 137.3 137.8 137.0 138.7 139.3 139.6 140.3 124.0 122.6 122.6 123.6 123.5 124.1 124.0 125.4 125.9 126.3 127.1 126.9 127.9 Business supplies 6.99 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 140.0 146.5 142.9 142.6 142.5 143.8 145.0 147.9 148.6 148.4 146.4 149.3 149.7 150.3 Total Energy 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.2 113.8 11.69 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.4 99.8 115.5 114.8 113.3 113.8 113.0 113.1 113.6 113.2 113.5 113.3 114.4 114.4 114.6 103.0 102.1 101.4 100.4 100.5 100.8 99.9 97.9 98.0 96.9 98.7 97.7 96.6 42.28 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July . " Auff Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 1987- Jan " 5.33 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82 3 80.5 75.9 82.4 80.3 76.3 78.1 74.8 71.4 73.6 73.4 74.1 74.2 76.8 74.7 74 2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel 3.49 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.5 72.2 69.5 64.3 65.6 60.2 58.3 61.7 60.8 61.1 62.2 64.8 62.0 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 6.46 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.3 107.3 109.2 108.5 107.6 108.2 106.5 106.6 105.7 105.9 107.3 108.3 107.1 108.4 109.4 9.54 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 145.3 142.0 7.15 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.4 166.5 144.9 143.9 141.7 140.8 141.3 140.4 142.6 142.6 140.9 142.2 141.6 140.7 166.1 164.8 165.2 166.8 166.0 163.2 166.8 167.2 166.9 167.7 168.2 169.9 141.7 170.0 Total 9.13 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 121.4 125.9 128.2 127.5 122.6 126.2 124.1 125.1 125.6 125.1 127.7 125.2 125.6 127.5 127.9 Motor vehicles and parts 5.25 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.5 110.9 116.5 116.4 108.1 112.6 108.7 110.6 111.2 108.2 112.2 107.1 107.9 111.5 112.2 Lumber and products 2.30 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 113.4 120.5 120.3 120.7 121.3 121.6 120.9 120.8 122.5 125.0 125.9 129.3 Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals 2.79 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.9 103.5 105.5 102.8 102.8 103.1 102.6 101.7 102.5 102.5 102.7 104.2 105.1 106.1 4.54 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 153.9 163.5 160.9 156.7 157.8 161.6 161.9 164.0 165.4 164.6 163.0 167.8 168.5 168.5 1700 8.05 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 127.1 133.0 131.7 132.0 130.2 132.8 131.5 134.2 134.1 134.4 133.9 133.9 132.9 133.5 and Foods products 7.96 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.2 133.6 132.0 132.9 132.2 133.1 133.7 134.6 134.3 135.1 134.3 133.7 134.1 134.9 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Commercial and industrial 2 New housing units Total ' Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1982 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 250.3 249.0 257.8 244.4 279.2 327.2 355.6 376.9 1979 1980 1981 1982.. 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 201.5 194.0 204.4 193.6 228.5 272.0 292.8 305.9 117.2 101.1 100.0 85.4 126.6 155.1 158.8 174.6 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 80.1 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 115.1 116.0 133.9 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.2 51.3 51.3 r 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.8 70.9 109.0 r 97.0 r 100.0 r 100.0 r 124.0 r 135.0 * 148.0 155.0 Annual rates Annual rates Sept Oct Nov r Dec r. 373.4 373.9 368.0 373.9 374.5 375.4 380.7 382.6 382.6 384.3 378.4 374.9 305.4 305.7 298.9 303.3 302.6 304.6 309.0 310.2 308.6 310.7 308.6 303.8 163.4 164.7 165.6 170.5 172.5 174.5 178.8 178.8 178.5 181.9 182.2 178.6 122.8 124.7 126.5 129.4 132.4 135.2 136.6 137.8 138.5 139.7 140.1 137.8 88.4 87.5 81.4 81.8 78.7 78.3 79.3 81.1 79.3 77.5 76.2 74.5 53.5 53.5 51.8 51.0 51.3 51.8 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.3 50.3 50.6 68.0 68.3 69.2 70.6 71.9 70.8 71.7 72.4 74.0 73.6 69.8 71.2 1987: Jan p . 378.5 303.2 180.7 140.8 70.7 51.8 75.2 1986: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June July 1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. 2 Includes hotels and motels. 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 996 r !40 r !57 r !51 r !65 r !53 r !59 r !57 r !55 r !55 r !51 156 155 848 941 840 1,011 921 911 877 949 970 861 1,025 940 150 996 3 F, W. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1979 1980 1981 1982.... 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 1986- Jan Feb Mar r 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.3 r Sept Oct r Novr Dec r. 2,004 r 1,923 r 1,887 " 1,945 r 1,848 r 1,842 r 1,786 " 1,800 ' 1,689 1,657 1,637 1,808 1,302 r l,183 r l,195 r 1,220 r 1,219 r l,212 r 1,147 r l,180 r l,123 1,114 1,129 1,225 Jan" 1,806 1,255 May June July 1987: 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,806.0 1 unit 1 2-4 units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.1 5 or more units 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.6 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,761.5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates r r 602 ioo r r 634 !06 r r 82 610 r r 644 81 r r 546 83 r r 551 79 r r 80 559 r r 532 88 r r 62 504 85 458 437 71 474 109 75 476 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. Units authorized 1,861 1,808 1,834 1,885 1,788 1,792 1,759 1,673 1,603 1,565 1,613 1,910 1,690 Units completed Homes sold 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 749 3 r 728 740 r 900 r 883 r 777 r 723 r 691 r 623 r 744 675 685 768 r r r 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,754.3 1,778 1,725 1,806 1,693 1,829 1,620 1,761 1,763 1,743 1,732 1,771 1,883 Homes for sale at end of period * 716 398 336 272 251 300 356 349 362 353 351 338 r 337 r 338 340 r 350 352 355 357 355 362 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 362 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted housing starts and sales revised beginning 1984. Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 3.1 percent in December and inventories fell $3.2 billion. According to advance data, retail sales fell 5.8 percent in January after increasing 4.6 percent in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO, SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 650 600 200 190 180 170 160 150 550 500 - 1•^^MANl FACTURING AND TRAI )E INVENTOI (IES __ _ 450 — 400 ~\~~" -~ 130 120 M/ NUFACTURI NG AN D TRADE SA LES 350 .=-'''" 140 --.,-»,-* 110 - RETAIL SALES 100 300 90 250 80 - 70 RATIO* 200 1.80 _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 150 RETAIL 1.40 1.20 1 1 1 I i 1 1 1 1 1e L1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 100 1983 JJ_MI| Mlllllllll I f 1I 1 1 I 1 I 1I 1984 1986 1985 - MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.00 1983 1987 1984 1985 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade ' 1986 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Invento-3 ries 298,334 328,058 356,919 344,656 368,724 410,737 424,091 431,115 451,460 494,105 528,105 509,555 520,328 575,098 r 583,231 586,860 79,472 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 114,948 99,262 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 r 135,833 138,635 431,799 583,231 116,028 135,833 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Manufacturing and trade 1 Retail Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 r 83,071 87,133 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 r 82,443 85,559 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.37 1.36 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 1.43 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 197") 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 1985: Dec r 1986- Jan JM> Mar Apr May T " June July Aue Sept Get NOT r Dec" 1987: 1 2 3 r 43 1,667 426,854 420,230 428,455 421.613 425,475 427,473 429,310 442,206 435,848 435,889 449,198 584,968 585,176 588,178 588,599 586,727 588,908 591,895 590,141 588,069 591,556 590,053 586,860 Jan" See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 115,648 113,380 112,495 114,608 109,870 112,873 114,375 114,482 117,594 117,991 117,605 118,118 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 120,464 116,687 r 136,624 117,303 136,561 117,200 137,056 116,684 137,083 117,715 137,506 118,675 138,793 118,960 139,753 119,804 139,742 121,523 139,878 128,331 121,655 139,211 121,062 138,849 138,635 ' 126,590 119,272 49,397 111,098 55,049 116,346 59,688 127,201 61,279 126,497 64,817 139,381 68,939 157,845 71,645 '165,514 73,539 172,692 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 46,925 72,961 165,514 83,071 82,443 1.35 1.42 72,988 73,251 73,405 72,841 73,121 73,364 73,492 73,611 73,714 73,976 74,043 r 74,753 167,987 169,379 171,551 172,158 170,869 171,705 173,529 172,926 171,617 176,338 174,788 172,692 84,755 85,863 88,132 88,263 87,198 88,281 90,271 89,380 86,578 90,134 89,173 87,133 83,232 83,516 83,419 83,895 83,671 83,424 83,258 83,546 85,039 86,204 85,615 85,559 1.36 1.37 1.40 1.37 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.33 1.36 1.35 1.31 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.34 1.45 1.44 1.36 43,726 r 44,315 43,949 43,279 44,874 45,554 45,596 46,312 47,912 54,617 47,679 47,019 r 51,837 44,545 T 74,727 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In January, manufacturers' shipments and orders fell and inventories rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) SHIPMENTS 200 -^^^ 160 • - - - D JRABLE 120 GOC-ins - \ TOTAL - - 200 h*~1 r r -~ 80 ~^ 360 320 280 240 ] --- ' 160 NO NDURABLE CJOODS 1 - \ 01JRABLE GOC DS 120' 60 - (•-- \ 80 40 JJ_Uli Kill M 1 i il t 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 h1 1 11 NOt-DURABLE G OODS 1 1 1 1 1 i ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 II 60 BILLIC>NS 240 OF DOLLARS!* (RATIO SCALE) ,, ,, 1,,,,, ,,,,,1 ,.,,!(,,,,, ,,,,,! INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 1983 1986 1987 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' new orders 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1979 1980... 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 195,703 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 105,800 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 89,903 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 275,533 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 183,800 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 91,733 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 195,827 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 105,870 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 27,172 67,953 76.801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 89,957 302,145 323,393 319 094 296.918 330,924 355,640 363,809 365,251 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 1.42 1986: Jan Feb. Mar Apr May Sept Oct Nov .. Dec r. 198,716 196,274 191,051 196,132 193,068 193,642 193,294 193,305 196,281 196,202 197,222 204,490 105,631 105,545 102,693 106,592 103,672 104,553 104,980 104,154 106,027 107,443 106,669 112,403 93,085 90,729 88,358 89,540 89,396 89,089 88,314 89,151 90,254 88,759 90,553 92,087 280,357 279,236 279,571 279,358 278,352 278,410 278,613 277,473 276,574 276,007 276,416 275,533 188.518 187,644 188,333 188,031 187,637 187,148 186,858 186,045 186,102 185,358 185,496 183,800 91,839 91,592 91,238 91,327 90,715 91,262 91,755 91,428 90,472 90,649 90,920 91,733 201,133 198.559 192,996 193,151 192,122 191,795 194,560 192,836 199,399 192,502 199,454 202,612 108,194 107,545 104,682 103,747 102,624 102,730 106,220 103,845 108,723 103,569 108,826 110,413 24,288 28,637 26,540 26,179 26,145 26,421 27,387 26,325 28,222 26,912 28,442 30,053 92,939 91,014 88,314 89,404 89,498 89,065 88,340 88,991 90,676 88,933 90,628 92,199 366,226 368,511 370,456 367,475 366,529 364,682 365,948 365,479 368,597 364,897 367,129 365,251 1.41 1.42 1.46 1.42 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 Jan v 196,661 105,328 91,333 277,020 184,894 92,126 194,457 102,965 24,944 91,492 363,047 1.41 July 1987: 1 2 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as safes. Book value, end of period. End of period. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES in January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. The index for finished consumer foods fell 1.8 percent while the index for other finished consumer goods rose 2.1 percent. The index for capital equipment rose 0.2 percent. INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 180 1979 1980 1986 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished ^por Finished goods exc utiing consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total 1979 . 1980 1981 1982 1983 .. . 1984 1985 1986 p 1986- Jan T Feb r .. .. Mar r 4pr T May r July r. Aue r Sept '. Oct ' Nov ' Dec ' 1987- Jan 1 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.7 289.6 295.9 291.5 288.9 287.4 288.8 289.4 287.2 288.3 289.1 289.9 290.2 289.9 291.7 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 278.0 273.7 270.0 270.5 271.7 275.5 275.9 279.6 283.5 283.3 285.1 285.2 284.1 279.0 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 291.1 301.0 296.4 292.7 290.3 290.9 291.5 287.1 287.2 288.4 288.9 289.3 289.2 293.5 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982. 22 Nondurable Capital equipment 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 311.1 341.0 329.3 319.2 311.0 312.4 313.2 301.7 301.9 303.0 300.7 300.0 299.9 308.9 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 306.5 303.5 303.8 304.3 305.1 305.5 306.1 306.3 306.6 307.6 308.9 309.9 310.1 310.8 Consumer goods Total 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 283.4 289.9 292.3 286.8 282.9 283.6 284.2 277.9 277.9 279.1 279.3 279.4 279.3 285.1 Durable 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 246.9 243.0 243.2 243.7 245.7 245.5 245.9 246.4 246.3 247.6 251.1 252.2 252.1 252.4 Total finished consumer goods Total Foods and feeds ' Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 284.9 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 307.6 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.8 230.2 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 313.3 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 280.0 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 230.6 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 386.8 293.8 288.1 284.5 282.3 284.1 284.7 281.7 283.1 283.8 284.5 284.6 284.2 317.9 313.8 310.3 307.3 306.8 306.6 304.7 304.5 305.7 304.8 304.8 304.8 231.4 229.1 228.4 227.2 229.1 229.4 229.6 232.2 232.6 231.1 231.5 231.4 324.2 320.0 316.4 313.2 312.5 312.3 310.3 309.9 311.1 310.3 310.3 310.2 298.8 287.3 280.9 273.2 279.1 277.2 276.7 277.2 276.8 280.5 278.2 274.4 230.0 224.8 223.3 218.6 228.4 226.5 232.2 238.6 236.1 239.7 236.6 233.8 447.3 422.4 405.2 391.2 389.0 387.2 372.6 359.8 364.3 368.2 367.7 361.7 286.2 307.6 228.5 313.4 282.3 226.7 389.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.6 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 320 320 300 300 ALL ITEMS 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 1979 1980 1981 1982 Illllllllll 1983 1985 1984 I l l l l l l l l l lIlRfl 1987 1986 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967= 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Housing Shelter . All items * Pnnd OOQ Total ' Totai *ita1 NSA 100.0 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 328.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 319.7 42.9 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 360.2 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 402.9 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar r..... Apr r May ".... June T ... July r.... Aug r.... Sept r.... Oct r Nov r.... Dec r..... 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 315.1 314.6 314.4 315.1 316.5 317.4 320.2 322.7 323.9 325.2 326.5 327.2 357.3 357.1 358.0 358.8 358.6 360.1 360.1 361.0 361.8 361.9 362.0 362.7 1987: 333.1 328.6 364.4 Jan 16.2 27.8 Total ' New cars Motor fuel Energy 2 All items iless food, energy, and shelter 48.6 19.6 0.2 7.9 6.3 17.2 4.6 2.9 5.4 103.0 108 6 115.4 121 9 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359 2 368.9 373.8 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 384.7 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 207.8 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 307.5 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 224.4 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 292.1 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 433.5 7.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 370.3 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 291.2 393.7 395.0 397.5 400.2 400.9 401.6 403.0 404.6 406.7 408.3 409.3 410.3 119.0 119.3 119.9 121.0 121.2 121.7 122.3 122.6 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.5 116.7 117.1 118.1 118.8 119.0 119.1 119.4 119.9 120.6 121.1 121.3 121.5 379.1 379.6 367.5 367.6 367.1 366.6 369.2 376.4 376.2 379.0 377.1 380.0 396.8 392.7 389.3 387.5 383.6 388.1 383.4 382.9 380.6 376.7 374.9 374.3 207.5 206.7 206.4 206.9 206.9 206.3 207.1 208.0 208.9 209.0 209.6 209.5 324.2 319.6 311.6 303.8 305.7 308.1 304.2 301.3 302.2 302.5 303.6 303.6 218.8 219.6 220.3 221.3 222.8 224.2 225.2 225.9 226.4 228.0 229.7 230.9 376.4 353.4 315.1 280.6 289.3 297.2 276.5 263.2 269.0 263.4 261.7 260.9 418.5 421.4 424.6 427.4 430.0 432.7 435.3 437.8 440.6 443.0 445.3 448.2 428.2 412.2 388.1 367.0 368.7 375.2 360.0 352.2 353.7 347.1 345.3 344.6 287.4 287.9 288.6 289.0 289.6 290.6 291.7 292.4 292.8 293.9 294.8 295.5 412.2 125.4 122.0 382.1 375.9 210.4 308.3 231.8 278.0 450.2 354.9 297.0 8.0 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1986. NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs Fuel Mainteand nance other and repairs utilities Medical care NSA Rel. imp.3 1979 1980 .. 1981 1982 ... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1 HomeRenters' owners' costs (Dec. costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 1982=100) Appareli andj upkeep and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 calculated on a revised basts. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Period Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.5 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986" 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.0 -6.9 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .5 2.9 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 -1.4 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 2.1 Change, month to month 04 1986- Jan '. . Feb ' Mar r . Mayr July .5 .2 -.8 .4 .3 .3 .1 -.1 r Aug '.. Septr Oct '... Nov ' Dec ' 1987- Jan -0.3 -2.2 19 -1.4 .2 .2 -2.2 0 .4 .1 .0 -.0 08 -1.4 .2 .4 1.4 .1 1.3 1.4 -.1 .6 .0 -.4 -1.5 9 -1.8 .6 NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revi 2.7 -5.4 -10.5 -11.0 0 .1 .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .3 .4 .3 .1 2.1 -.3 7 — .4 3.8 2.7 1.1 5.3 -5.0 -7.6 -2.9 8.4 8.2 12.1 12.1 11.2 8.1 2.4 1.1 2.5 -8.3 -3.7 .2 ^nning 1982. 2.0 -8.4 -16.4 -19.8 -11.4 -3.6 -6.9 -7.8 -7.0 2.0 2.2 .3 1.5 .8 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.4 2.0 3.4 4.4 3.3 1.0 -1.5 -1.9 -4.4 -4.5 -5.1 -5.8 -2.2 .1 1.7 1.0 .3 1.9 .9 3.1 1.1 1.5 0 4.4 10.2 9.7 10.1 7.2 6.0 0.1 -3.9 -6.3 -9.5 -9.9 — 10.2 -13.6 -9.6 -5.3 -2.5 -2.9 -3.4 1.9 1.6 3.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 2.6 — 1.4 -1.9 -2.5 8.6 2.5 3.2 -.4 5.2 3.0 -1.5 1.3 -.2 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -2.4 -1.8 Q Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Ap- Shelter All Period items * Food Total 1 RentTotal ' Homeowners' costs ers' costs Fuel parel and other utilities and upkeep MediTotal ' New cars Motor fuel cal care Ener- gy2 All items less food, energy, and shelter Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previ- From ous quarter 3 3 6 months earlier months earlier From From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 10.2 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 |_ 3.8 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 1.8 17.4 15.1 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 0.3 3 — .4 -.3 .2 .4 .0 .2 .3 .2 .2 .2 0 -.2 .2 .4 .3 .9 .8 .4 .4 .4 2 0.4 -.1 .3 .2 -.1 .4 0 .2 .2 .0 .0 .2 .7 .4 .5 13.3 12.4 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 1.1 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 4.2 2.9 -5.7 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 0.5 .3 .6 .7 .2 .2 .3 .4 .5 .4 2 .2 0.4 .3 .5 .9 2 0.3 -1.0 i .5 .2 .4 .4 .4 .3 0.4 .3 .9 .6 .2 .1 .3 .4 .6 .4 .2 .2 .5 .7 .4 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 .9 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 52.2 7.4 7.5 18.9 6.8 9.4 1.6 -6.5 3.4 17 2.4 -2.4 3.5 3.0 5.8 -30.6 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 7.7 0.3 0.1 .4 -6.1 .3 -10.8 .5 -10.9 .7 3.1 .6 2.7 .4 -7.0 .3 48 .2 2.2 .7 21 0.1 -3.7 -5.8 -5.4 .5 1.8 —4.1 -2.2 .4 -1.9 -.5 3.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 5 .2 1.8 -19.7 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.4 Change, month to month 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May ... ... ... June July ... ... ... Aug 1987: Sept ... Oct Nov Dec ... ... ... Jan 1 -.5 -1.0 1.2 -1.2 -.1 -.6 -1.0 -.5 -.2 -0.1 — .4 -.1 .2 0 -.3 .4 .4 .4 .0 .3 -.0 0.4 — 1.4 -2.5 -2.5 .6 .8 -1.3 -1.0 .3 .1 .4 0 .4 .4 1.5 Cj 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowner- 24 .5 -.6 -.3 0.6 .7 .8 .7 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 .7 .4 6.6 .4 O 0.5 .2 .2 .1 .2 .3 .4 .2 .1 .4 .3 .2 1.6 -1.3 .5 2.5 2.6 4.8 1.5 -1.3 -3.7 -1.7 1.6 2.9 2.5 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.7 2.8 1.7 .4 -.1 .1 -.5 .4 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.2 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.4 3.5 1.4 ship costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 calculated on a revised basis. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in February were unchanged from their January level. Prices paid by farmers in January (the latest month available) rose 0.6 percent from their October level. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID 160 160 140 140 120 PRICES RECEIVED - 120 100 100 80 80 u 60. miiliim imilm Hl 60 RA lO-y _ 140 RATI OX 140 _ 120 120 — __ ^_^ — 100 100 — ~~—Sx—1 ^-^ 80 1 -—r— 60 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 11 miilmii II t i l l II 1 II 1979 1980 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 II 1 III II 1982 ~~ 80 — 60 .—•— miiimii H i l l ill 111 1 1 1 II 1 11 1 II mnlimi 1984 1985 1986 1987 1983 ,1/SATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977=100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period All farm products 1979 1980 .... 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986: Feb Mar Apr May .. June July Aue Sept Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan r Feb ... , Livestock and products Crops 132 134 139 133 135 142 128 123 122 122 121 123 122 125 125 122 121 124 121 121 121 116 125 134 121 128 138 120 106 110 111 114 115 110 106 101 97 97 103 99 99 97 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices receivered by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage ratea. 3 Not available. 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 138 133 132 127 131 133 143 149 146 145 145 141 142 144 4 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 123 138 151 159 161 165 163 159 161 (3) 159 (3) (3) 159 (3) (3) 158 (3) (3) 159 (3) 125 139 151 159 1S9 162 157 151 153 (3) 151 (3) (3) 151 (3) (3) 149 (3) (3) 149 (3) Production items Ratio 125 138 148 153 152 155 151 146 148 (3) 145 (3) (3) 144 (3) (3) 142 (3) (3) 143 (3) 2 107 97 92 84 84 86 79 77 76 76 76 77 77 79 79 77 77 78 77 76 4 76 Derived using prices paid for January 1987. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The have been converted to a 1977— 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In January, growth in Ml slowed while growth in the broader aggregates was little changed. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,600 3,600 3,200' 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 AA2 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 Mil 400 400 300 1979 1983 1982 1981 1984 1985 ' AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1986 1987 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 1,630.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.5 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 3,898.9 4,279.2 4,661.7 5,210.1 5,949.8 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 9.6 9.8 8.9 11.8 14.2 1985: Dec ' 1986: Dec ' 627.0 730.5 2,569.6 2,798.4 3,205.6 3,488.1 4,141.5 6 7786 7,604.4 16.5 8.9 8.8 13.9 12.2 1986: Jan ' Feb' Mar r July ' Aug ' Sept ' Oct ' Nov ' Dec T 628.9 632.2 640.5 648.2 659.6 667.5 676.6 687.0 693.1 701.4 712.4 730.5 2,574.7 2,582.4 2,598.9 2,623.9 2,647.3 2,667.6 2,693.8 2,718.4 2,736.2 2,760.4 2,774.6 2,798.4 3,226.9 3,242.8 3,264.4 3,293.3 3,315.0 3,338.6 3,369.2 3,397.3 3,422.3 3,442.9 3,460.2 3,488.1 3,861.7 3,880.1 3,894.9 3,920.0 3,952.0 3,972.7 3,999.9 4,029.2 4,059.0 4,085.4 4,110.5 4,141.5 6,878.5 6,923.3 6 968 5 7,029.1 7,101.3 7,272.2 7,238.1 7,314.8 7,387.2 7,444.7 7,51.9.8 7,604.4 16.0 15.2 14.7 14.6 14.0 12.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.4 1987: Jan* 737.6 2,820.1 3,513.6 Period 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mav ' 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonfmancia! sectors (monthly average) l Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml M2 M3 11.4 13.4 13.3 15.7 18.1 17.1 17.1 16.7 19.8 7.1 7.8 7.8 9.5 10.8 10.8 10.7 9.8 10.0 8.4 8.6 8.5 9.0 9.8 9.9 9.3 9.0 9.2 18.8 9.6 8.8 Debt NOTE.—Money stock series were revised in February 1987 to incorporate annu&j benchmark and seasonal adjustment revisions. Data are not yet available prior to October 1985. See p. 27 for com ponents. Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Other Demand deposits Currency p enoci '1 checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1986: Dec r .. 1986: Jan r. Feb r Mar r Apr r r May *\7 June * July r Aug r Sept * Oct T Nov r Dec r 1987: Jan p Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Money Institution only NSA market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.6 84.1 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.0 571.3 401.4 344.8 357.9 306.6 178.6 232.3 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 207.5 270.3 270.3 274,6 277.7 282.2 285.0 288.2 291.2 292.2 293.4 297.8 308.3 180.9 183.1 186.0 189.9 195.5 199.6 204.5 210.4 214.7 220.4 225.9 232.3 68.9 68.4 67.4 68.2 68.9 66.3 71.9 74.6 72.7 77.2 75.8 76.0 177.7 181.0 186.2 191.4 193.2 197.3 199.7 200.5 202.2 206.9 207.1 207.5 67.3 67.7 70.2 74.1 76.1 75.0 77.5 80.8 84.4 84.5 84.4 84.1 186.0 305.1 240.0 82.5 208.9 84.0 28.0 78.0 103.4 131.3 146.3 170.6 271.5 183.5 308.3 171.8 172.7 173.8 174.4 175,8 176.7 J77.6 179.0 179.7 181.2 182.4 183.5 15.2 Large denomination time deposits 1 NSA 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.3 76.0 265.3 234.6 237.9 242.7 248.4 116.7 124.1 134.3 148.3 158.5 Small denomination time deposits ' Term repurchase agreements (KPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA q,,,. oavl™£? on s Shortterm Treasury securities 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 83.1 76.7 84.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 r 79.4 133.4 149.6 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.5 447.0 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 66.0 81.1 888.1 889.8 892.0 893.1 888.0 883.0 880.9 876.7 872.2 864.7 857.1 853.3 445.0 447.6 448.5 451.3 447.6 447.5 448.3 449.4 448.5 445.7 445.9 447.0 68.9 70.7 71.7 71.6 74.2 75.4 75.0 75.5 78.0 77.8 81.8 81.1 75.9 79.1 82.7 81.4 79.7 80.0 78.5 78.3 81.7 79.0 80.7 84.6 79.9 80.5 81.2 81.9 82.7 83.5 84.3 85.3 86.4 87.7 89.8 91.7 302.9 305.7 299.0 298.2 303.8 298.2 292.8 289.6 289.5 288.8 294.0 293.9 850.7 4-49.4 79.6 87.8 259.0 301.8 289.7 303.6 366.2 730.2 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 853.3 516.6 517.1 521.0 526.1 531.6 541.0 546.6 553.6 558.8 564.4 568.7 571.3 304.0 304.8 306.6 311.1 316.8 321.8 327.4 334.6 341.4 350.4 358.5 366.2 574.2 376.7 Bankers' acceptances Commercia paper 32.1 39.9 44.3 44.5 43.6 r 42.1 37.5 184.4 214.9 266.0 r 304.6 91.7 293.9 r 42.4 42.5 41.4 40.6 39.8 39.8 39.0 37.3 36.9 37.7 38.0 37.5 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 206.6 230.2 209.5 208.6 208.8 206.1 210.7 212.6 214.5 219.7 223.9 228.4 228.4 230.2 1 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, NOTE.—Money stock series revised; see note p. 26. [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding l Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 19781979: 19801981: 19821983: 1984: 19851986: 19851986- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec p Dec Jan... . Feb Mar Apr May June. July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dee" .... . 261,976 296,483 297,667 314,321 327,173 376,239 453,580 535,098 594,929 535,098 542,753 547,852 550,939 555,810 562,267 567,653 573,216 576,609 584,334 591,542 594,824 594,929 Automobile Revolving 98,739 112,475 112,255 120,020 125,369 145,908 173,122 206,482 241,800 206,482 210,661 213,342 214,361 215,814 218,965 222,606 226,234 228,814 236,280 240,548 241,094 241,800 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 98,514 118,296 127,914 118,296 119,682 120,724 122,131 123,442 124,545 124,720 125,577 125,915 126,012 126,514 128,094 127,914 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for nonthly data, change from preceding month. Mobile home 16,921 18,207 19,119 20,382 20,998 22,194 24,184 25,461 25,069 25,461 25,371 25,573 25,584 25,513 25,560 25,479 25,398 25,215 24,958 24,994 25,025 25,069 Other 101,114 112,444 111,399 113,169 114,799 129,768 157,760 184,859 200,145 184,859 187,039 188,212 188,863 191,041 193,197 194,847 196,007 196,665 197,084 199,485 200,610 200,145 Total 40,501 34,507 1,184 16,654 12,852 49,066 77,341 81,518 59,831 6,477 7,655 5,099 3,087 4,871 6,457 5,386 5,564 3,393 7,724 7,208 3,282 105 Automobile 17,791 13,736 -220 7,765 5,349 20,539 27,214 33,360 35,318 2,716 4,179 2,682 1,019 1,452 3,151 3,642 3,628 2,579 7,466 4,268 547 706 Revolving 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 20,145 19,782 9,618 1,246 1,386 1,042 1,407 1,311 1,103 175 857 338 97 502 1,581 -180 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mobile home 559 1,286 912 1,263 616 1,196 1,990 1,277 -392 146 -90 203 11 -71 48 -81 -81 -183 -257 37 30 44 Other 13,638 11,330 -1,045 1,770 1,630 14,969 27,992 27,099 15,286 2,369 2,180 1,173 651 2,178 2,155 1,650 1,160 659 419 2,401 1,125 -465 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 2.7 percent in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS — 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 TOTAL 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 600 600 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 ***•*« --' 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES 120 120 80 lilt 80 1979 ;1980 1982 1981 1983 1984 1985 1987 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 AH commercial banks * 1979: 19801981: 19821983: 19841985: 19861986- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec r Jan Feb Mar Apr July „ 1987: & hept Oct Nov Dec r Jan p Total loans and securities 2 1,136.2 1,240.5 1,308.2 1,401.1 1,553.5 1,722.6 1,900.4 2,078.7 1,930.0 1,935.5 1,944.6 1,947.9 1,957.5 1,963.7 1,985.0 2,007.7 2,029.6 2,034.0 2,049.0 2,078.7 2,110.6 Total 2 849.9 915.4 968.4 1,033.9 1,123.7 1,319.7 1,449.7 1,576.2 1,469.3 1,473.7 1,491.8 1,495.8 1,501.5 1,505.3 1,513.4 1,524.5 1,534.7 1,537.7 1,549.5 1,576.2 1,608.0 Commercial and industrial loans 291.3 327.4 355.9 392.5 414.0 472.9 499.5 536.9 502.1 502.4 506.1 507.8 506.7 508.7 508.7 510.4 512.1 514.1 520.3 536.9 551.2 U.S. Government securities Total 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 Other securities 142.0 154.5 160.6 165.3 170.1 142.1 177.6 193.4 192.5 188.1 183.3 182.1 181.9 183.6 186.1 192.3 200.7 196.7 194.8 193.4 188.7 144.4 170.6 179.2 201.9 259.7 260.9 273.1 309.1 268.2 273.6 269.5 270.0 274.1 274.8 285.4 290.9 294.3 299.6 304.8 309.1 313.9 2 3 Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Loans and leases Period 29.15 30.99 32.19 34.41 36.16 39.51 45.61 55.64 r 45.78 r 46.27 r 46.79 r 47.19 r 48.55 r 49.35 r 50.48 51.32 51.81 52.40 53.82 55.64 56.64 Nonborrowed 27.67 29.30 31.55 33.78 35.38 36.32 44.29 54.81 r 45.01 r 45.38 r 46.03 r 46.30 r 47.68 r 48.55 r 49.74 50.45 50.80 51.56 53.07 54.81 56.06 Required 28.70 30.48 31.87 33.91 35.59 38.66 44.55 54.27 44.77 45.27 45.97 46.47 47.74 48.51 49.58 50.58 51.08 51.66 52.85 54.27 55.57 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Total 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 770 884 761 893 876 803 741 872 1,008 841 752 827 580 Seasonal 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 36 56 68 73 94 108 116 144 137 99 70 38 34 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Credit market funds Internal l Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986" 1985: I n m IV 1986: Ir nr mr. IV Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Total Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 328.5 352.6 347.6 382.5 327.6 431.3 503.4 483.1 466.5 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 326.3 352.5 358.3 146.3 155.1 147.5 143.0 85.3 145.6 177.1 130.6 108.2 85.0 87.8 94.3 93.7 80.6 87.6 116.4 82.1 92.5 33.3 21.0 53.1 22.8 44.0 57.3 -10.0 15.3 22.5 51.8 66.9 41.2 70.9 36.6 30.3 126.5 66.8 70.0 61.2 67.3 53.2 49.3 4.7 58.0 60.7 48.5 15.7 309.4 362.8 343.2 349.2 292.0 399.1 469.1 438.5 431.9 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 274.8 371.2 353.1 352.4 92.4 124.5 99.1 62.8 35.7 124.3 97.9 85.4 79.5 19.2 -10.1 4.4 33.3 35.6 32.2 34.3 44.6 34.6 432.2 421.9 505.0 573.2 339.4 350.3 365.2 355.1 92.8 71.6 139.8 218.1 71.7 58.2 53.0 145.6 -10.1 29.4 17.0 24.8 81.8 28.8 36.0 120.8 21.1 13.4 86.8 72.5 407.8 406.6 417.3 522.3 340.1 349.8 349.0 373.5 67.8 56.8 68.3 148.8 24.3 15.3 87.7 50.9 412.5 452.7 403.8 596.4 361.7 355.6 359.6 356.4 50.8 97.1 44.2 240.0 88.5 65.8 38.2 177.2 52.8 48.8 17.8 -29.4 35.7 17.0 20.4 206.6 -37.8 31.3 6.0 62.8 403.0 431.2 358.6 534.3 380.2 354.4 336.2 338.8 22.8 76.8 22.4 195.5 9.6 21.4 45.2 62.1 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained _0ftr• ,.,.,., n " Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment m the U.o. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current assets End of period Total QFR-FEB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983- IV 1984- I n. m IV 1985: I n m.... w 1986- I p 1 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,784.6 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,722.7 1,734.6 1,763.0 1,784.6 1,795.7 Cash 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 189.2 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 167.5 167.1 176.3 189.2 195.3 U.S. Government securities 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 33.0 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 35.7 35.4 32.6 33.0 31.0 Notes and accounts receivable Current liabilities Inventories 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 650.3 654.1 661.0 671.5 663.4 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to 2 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 666.0 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 665.7 666.7 675.0 666.0 679.6 Other current assets 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 224.9 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 203.5 211.2 218.2 224.9 226.3 Total 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,233.6 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,174.1 1,182.9 1,211.9 1,233.6 1,222.3 Notes and accounts payable 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 682.7 595.7 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 636.9 651.7 670.4 682.7 668.4 Other current liabilities 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 550.9 463.9 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 537.1 531.2 541.5 550.9 553.9 Net working capital 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 551.0 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 548.6 551.7 551.1 551.0 573.4 Current ratio * 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.447 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.467 1.466 1.455 1.447 1.469 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in February. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 ~ 16 198^ 1987 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) a Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged by banks 5 New-home mortgage yields CPHLBB)6 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 7.03 6.59 6.06 6.12 6.21 5.84 5.57 5.19 5.18 5.35 5.49 8.10 7.30 6.86 7.27 7.41 6.86 6.49 6.62 6.56 6.46 6.43 8.70 7.78 7.30 7.71 7.80 7.30 7.17 7.45 7.43 7.25 7.11 7.44 7.07 7.32 7.67 7.98 7.62 7.31 7.14 7.12 6.86 6.93 9.67 9.00 8.79 9.09 9.13 8.88 8.72 8.89 8.86 8.68 8.49 7.54 7.08 6.47 6.53 6.63 6.24 5.83 5.61 5.61 5.69 5.88 7.50-7.50 7.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.00 6.00-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9 00 8 50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.00 800 7 50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 10.68 10.50 10.27 10.22 10.15 10.30 10.26 10.17 10.02 9.91 9.69 5.45 5.59 6.41 6.56 7.08 7.25 6.63 6.66 8.36 8.38 5.76 5.99 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 7.50- 7.50 7 50 7 50 9.55 . 1987: Feb 7 14 21 28 Mar 7 5.58 5.72 5.66 5.40 5.47 6.53 6.65 6.57 6.52 7.22 7.31 7.28 7.20 6.57 6.69 6.67 6.69 8.38 8.39 8.40 8.36 5.87 6.04 6.08 6.00 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 1981.. 14.029 10.686 1982 1983.. 1984 1985 1986 1986: Feb Mar May July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1987: Jan Feb 7 50 7 00 Week ended: 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 30 5.505 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in February. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 r 160 160 140 140 120 120 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) V 100 100 80 80 60 60 III 11 40 1979 40 1980 1982! 1981 1984 1983 1985 i 1986 1987 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 15 15 - EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 I I I I 1979 1 I I I 1981 1980 I I I I J 1982 I 1984 1983 I 1985 I 1986 New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965=5O) 2 Period Transportation I Common stock yields (percent) 5 Common stock prices ' Industrial I 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Composite I Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)" Dividendprice ratio 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June . July Sept Oct Nov Dec 126.43 133.97 137.27 137.37 140.82 138.32 140.91 137.06 136.74 140.84 142.12 144.03 152.75 157.30 158.59 163.15 158.06 160.10 156.52 156.56 162.10 163.85 124.18 128.66 126.17 122.21 120.65 112.03 111.24 114.06 120.04 122.27 121.26 65.18 68.06 69.46 68.65 70.69 74.20 77.84 74.56 73.38 75.77 76.07 142.13 153.94 155.07 151.28 151.73 150.23 152.90 145.56 143.89 142.97 144.29 1,652.73 1,757.35 1,807.05 1,801.80 1,867.70 1,809.92 1,843.45 1,813.47 1,817.04 1,883.65 1,924.07 219.37 232.33 237.97 238.46 245.30 240.18 245.00 238.27 237.36 245.09 248.61 3.72 3.50 3.43 3.42 3.36 3.43 3.36 3.43 3.49 3.40 3.38 1987- Jan Feb 151.17 160.23 175.60 189.17 126.61 135.49 78.54 78.19 153.32 158.41 2,065.13 2,202.34 264.51 280.93 3.17 3.02 Week ended: 1987: Jan 31 Feb 7 14 21 28 155.70 158.87 158.32 162.66 161.58 181.91 186.82 186.66 192.60 191.29 129.21 133.66 134.66 138.30 135.89 79.89 79.71 77.71 77.85 77.41 154.93 155.56 156.36 161.52 160.84 2,147.83 2,185.49 2,171.17 2,238.61 2,221.35 273.42 278.66 277.22 285.49 283.28 3.07 3.03 3.06 2.98 3.00 1 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- 2 3 4 Earningsprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.08 5.87 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal 1987, there was a deficit of $65.6 billion compared with a deficit of $81.6 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 _ RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!/ 11,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 OUTLAYS*/ 800 800 700 700 '600 600 RECEIPTSi/ 500 500 400 400 0 _ SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)V -100 -100 -200 -200 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1987 1986 1988 FISCAL YEARS !/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES; DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Eeceipts Outlays 396.9 480.3 498.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 72 7 -73.9 1200 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 50 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 946.3 989.8 1,015.6 1,024.3 -212.3 -220.7 173 2 -107.8 547.9 568.9 628.4 674.5 769.5 806.3 821.1 821.9 9.4 16.7 19.5 39.7 1,827.2 2,132.9 2,372.4 2,585.5 1,509.9 1,746.1 1,908.4 2,015.1 335.6 337.3 -81.6 65 6 191.8 205.7 227.7 275.3 4.4 4.0 1,966.8 2,225.8 1,613.0 1,819.1 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 1985 1986 1987 l 1988 J 734.1 769.1 1 271.8 371.8 96.0 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1987. 32 Held by the public 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 517.1 253.9 Total 2.0 -3.2 — 1.4 -3.9 43 -2.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Cumulative total, first 4 months: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 Surplus or deficit (-) 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 916.6 Outlays 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 355.6 399.6 463.3 842.4 Receipts 55 3 -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 1977 1978 600.6 666.5 Surplus or deficit (-) 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 332.3 617.8 Outlays 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 279.1 298.1 81.2 599.3 Receipts 53 2 -73.7 14 7 -53.6 59 2 -40.2 1975 1976 1979 Surplus or deficit (-) Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget -208.0 -185.6 221 6 186.2 -237.5 200.2 192 7 — 147.4 214.0 242.1 176.8 183.5 194.5 202.4 -86.0 69 6 62.2 66.1 57.8 62.1 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 551.8 610.9 644.6 FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AMD OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION in the first 4 months of fiscal 1987, receipts were $17.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $1.7 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DO LLARS BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS 400 400 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES — RECEIPTS!/ 300 300 — ___. — —" _ _ _ - SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 "~COR PORATION INCOME TAXE S 100 ^* 0 700 100 _-__«=crrr1 OTHER RECEIPTS 200 1 0 __OUTLAYJ V NONDEFENSE 600 700 ,-'" 600 __ __ — " ~ — — __-- 500 500 — ,''"'' — 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 200 _1— , - — • -~ 200 ~~~~~ 100 \ A \ I N V 1979 1980 300 _ ___ . — 1981 1983 1982 1985 1984 1 986 1 987 1 988 ! 100 N FISCAL YEARS _/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES- DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT A •iD BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Oil-budget and off-budget receipts liscal year Total 1978 1977 1978 1979 298.1 1980 517.1 599 3 617.8 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 ' 1988 ' Cumulative total, first 4 months: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 1 355.6 399.6 463.3 600.6 666 5 734.1 769.1 842.4 916.6 253.9 271.8 Social insurance taxes Oil-budget and off-budget outlays Naliona defense Individual income, taxes Corporation income taxes 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 88.1 95.3 102.3 113.7 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 50.6 69.5 69 3 65.6 71.8 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 131.0 153.8 180.7 209.9 227.4 334.5 349.0 364.0 392.8 61.3 63.1 104.8 117.2 265.2 283.9 125.3 135.3 17.7 21.4 85.4 90.9 Other Total contributions 209.0 239.4 301.5 333.2 851.8 73.0 946.3 73.1 989.8 72.2 1,015.6 73.4 1,024.3 25.6 24.2 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1987. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Total 335.6 337.3 Department of Defense, military International affairs Health Medicare Income security Social security Net interest Other 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 252.7 273.4 282.2 297.6 245.4 265.6 274.2 289.3 16.2 14.2 14.6 15.2 33.5 35.9 39.7 38.9 65.8 70.2 71.6 73.0 128.2 119.8 124.9 124.8 188.6 198.8 219.4 129.4 136.0 137.5 139.0 131.8 141.7 137.2 116.5 88.8 90.5 86.1 87.8 5.0 11.9 12,6 23.4 24.8 41.2 42.4 63.7 67.1 47.1 45.9 54.5 49.2 6.4 6.4 7.5 4.7 207.9 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1986, Federal receipts rose $19.6 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell $15.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $197.4 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to revised estimates, expenditures rose $15.0 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 - 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 -200 -200 1986 1982 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1984 1985 1986 1987 ! Calendar year: 1983 1984 1985 1986 p r 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984- IV 1985: I n m rv 1986: I n in r Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer PVments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 712.6 774.6 814.7 874.6 302.4 340.2 355.8 368.7 76.3 71.7 83.0 108.9 54.9 56.5 52.2 53.8 279.0 306.2 323.7 343.2 873.9 962.1 1,025.4 1,060.5 297.8 341.1 367.1 384.8 352.3 374.2 394.2 409.5 90.7 97.7 107.4 104.6 109.7 128.3 136.8 138.5 23.5 20.9 19.9 25.1 0.1 -161.3 .0 2.0 -210.7 659.9 726.5 786.8 825.9 633.1 294.5 309.3 345.6 361.9 303.0 291.9 325.5 360.7 316.6 349.6 355.6 350.3 355.5 365.8 376.1 61.3 75.9 73.6 82.8 46.4 70.2 69.9 70.5 69.9 76.8 77.2 77.8 80.1 84.3 51.6 55.7 56.1 52.3 47.6 53.6 55.9 55.1 59.3 53.9 56.0 52.7 50.7 53.4 52.5 252.5 285.5 311.5 328.9 236.1 259.8 292.6 306.9 310.0 312.2 317.0 325.8 327.2 329.6 333.0 835.9 896.5 984.9 1,030.8 835.7 844.7 934.0 955.4 970.6 990.1 1,023.4 1,001.5 1,045.7 1,030.5 1,045.5 283.5 311.3 354.1 366.6 293.2 276.1 329.1 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 355.7 367.6 369.3 374.0 348.6 355.0 380.3 397.3 347.4 352.5 362.1 374.2 377.2 384.1 385.9 389.3 396.7 403.0 400.3 86.2 93.6 99.0 105.6 84.5 86.0 96.9 95.7 98.3 100.2 101.6 103.5 106.9 108.0 104.1 94.3 115.6 130.5 135.9 87.2 101.0 124.9 127.6 130.9 129.8 133.9 135.0 138.1 134.7 135.7 22.9 21.3 20.7 25.3 23.4 29.1 21.5 24.4 22.3 15.1 21.1 18.0 36.5 15.4 31.5 -.4 .2 -.2 .0 -176.0 -170.0 -198.0 904. Q .0 -202.6 -169.2 -190.1 162 2 -214.8 -197.5 -217.6 - 195.0 909 9 -197.4 675.5 743.9 793.3 755.8 792.6 805.8 806.6 813.5 833.1 IV 1 Personal tax and nontax receipts Federal Government expenditures Estimates from Budget of the United Stales Government, Fiscal Year 198S, January 1987. 34 1 U7 K .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1QK Q Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Office of Management and Budget. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1967 = 100) Industrial production (1977=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 r 125.0 108.1 108.6 98.9 104.1 112.7 118.2 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 1446 106 103 101 102 105 106 107 105 102 103 106 112 114.7 112.1 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 Sept Oct Nov Dec' 126.2 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 r 126.4 120.3 120.3 117.1 120.2 117.7 116.6 118.1 116.3 116.2 117.5 116.5 144.6 145.2 144.5 144.6 145.1 145.3 144.9 141.3 146.3 143.5 141.5 145 1 104 107 104 110 103 108 109 109 109 109 109 113 113 113 117 112 116 117 116 114 r l!6 116 108.0 111.0 114.5 116.2 108.5 113.7 110.6 105.6 110.8 ' 110.4 112.1 1987: Jan " 126.9 1980 1981 ... . 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 1986- Jan Feb Mar May y 3 July 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. United Kingdom United States ' 100 96 98 101 103 108 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 328.4 109 110 110 111 r !08 r !08 110 r lll 111 110 110 Canada Italy United Kingdom Japan France Germany 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 362.8 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 324.9 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 805.2 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 619.9 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 356.3 357.7 358.5 359.1 360.7 361.3 363.9 365.1 365.1 366.9 368.9 369.5 325.8 324.4 323.5 324.7 326.9 325.2 324.4 323.8 325.4 325.7 324.1 323.5 472.6 471.7 472.9 474.7 475.6 477.0 477.5 478.0 479.9 480.9 481.4 213.8 213.3 212.8 212.6 212.6 212.9 211.9 211.4 211.7 211.0 210.8 795.6 801.2 804.4 806.8 809.9 813.1 813.1 814.7 817.1 822.0 825.3 827.8 610.0 612.2 613.0 619.0 620.1 619.8 618.0 619.9 623.0 623.9 629.2 631.3 333.1 370.3 832.8 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Merchandise exports 1 Period Total domestic and foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Merchandise trade balance Merchandise imports General imports3 Domestic exports Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 76,554 100,317 112,226 125,122 160,411 186,045 222,228 256,984 27 305 273,352 254,885 -31,759 57 562 269,878 341,177 -107,861 361,626 132 129 387,082 -152,657 Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) -29,158 -31,076 -27,599 -24,241 -39,179 —42,364 -40,368 -36,354 F.a.s. value 121,232 143,681 181,860 220,630 1977 1978 1979 1980 119,024 141,142 178,633 216,515 15,963 20,604 24,587 30,407 18,579 20,957 28,222 33,719 80,151 94,473 116,587 143,891 150,390 174,757 209,458 244,871 14,227 15,743 17,735 18,551 53,554 51,901 71,390 93,973 Customs value 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1986- Jan* Feb* Mar* May* July* * Sept* Oct* Nov*.. .. Dec* 1987- Jan* 1 233,677 212,193 200,486 217,865 213,146 217,304 228,899 207,076 195,917 212,034 206,925 206,376 33,206 26,977 26,979 27,312 22,226 20,223 17,006 17,735 18,913 17,965 17,431 19,070 17,707 17,604 17,518 19,330 18,595 18,431 16,501 17,164 18,349 17,376 16,691 16,427 15,911 16,831 16,860 18,594 17,895 17,777 1,797 1,689 1,706 1,475 1,395 1,438 1,648 1,814 1,672 1,866 1,863 1,861 2,467 2,367 2,349 2,436 2,228 1,776 1,764 2,035 1,988 2,287 2,339 2,419 16,384 15,826 1,613 2,236 18,350 17,817 18,819 21,626 22,376 24,669 92,873 74,404 68,037 72,758 64,981 48,257 142,475 144,022 163,449 221,515 246,778 282,121 11,395 !2,183 13,328 ' 12,616 r 12,276 r 12,300 r 11,625 ' 12,045 ' 12,255 r 13,369 ' 12,757 ' 12,565 32,005 28,895 31,972 28,762 30,272 31,764 34,121 29,476 28,695 30,018 36,187 27,795 2,215 1,908 2,100 2,018 2,329 1,886 2,143 1,931 1,963 1,935 2,328 1,912 6,234 4,741 4,284 3,176 3,659 4,163 3,963 3,413 3,874 3,514 3,866 3,371 22,477 21,289 24,261 22,226 23,001 23,971 26,609 23,106 21,849 23,537 28,350 21,446 33,465 30,225 33,435 30,036 31,638 33,240 35,745 30,925 30,078 31,389 37,816 29,089 14 999 -11,161 13059 -10,797 12 842 - 12,694 16414 -11,871 11 177 - 10,688 17 592 -9,364 -16,459 — 12,491 -14,522 -12,071 - 14,208 -14,170 -18,037 -13,321 -12,560 -12,059 -19,221 - 10,658 11,115 29,805 1,948 3,840 23,003 31,164 13 421 -14,780 r r T Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded through 1984 and included beginning 1985. * Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intranait shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade -39,675 -42,691 -69,392 -123,312 - 148,480 -169,777 260,982 243,952 258,048 325,726 345,276 369,961 33,022 154,283 33,518 139,716 29,555 132,409 31,482 143,142 28,344 145,384 26,453 ' 148,715 balance. 'Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900. 1 Foreign exports (not shown separately) include $2,050 million of nonmonetary gold bullion for June and $1,250 million for July. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $36.3 billion, up from $34.4 billion in the second quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $37.7 billion from $35.7 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 5 5 -5 -5 -10 -10 .MERCHANDISE TRADE YBALANCE -15 -15 -20 -20 /\ -25 -25 -30 -30 35 -35 -40 \ I I I 1 1 \ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -40 1986 1985 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise l 2 Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983- I n m IV 1984- I n m IV 1985- I n m rv 1986: I n np Investment income 3 Net balance Receipts 212 009 — 249 749 — 265 063 247 642 — 268900 332 422 — 338 863 27 536 25 480 27 978 36 444 67 080 112 522 124 439 64 132 72 506 86 411 83 549 77 251 86 221 89 991 32 960 42 120 52 329 KA QQO 00 £*CC 52 410 67 469 64 803 24 841 18 752 25 188 49 642 49,216 50,351 52,611 59 476 -64,798 -70,740 -73,886 9 834 -15,582 -20,389 -21,275 18 077 18,732 20,684 19,758 12 228 -12,807 -13,536 -13,839 5 849 5,925 7,148 5,919 53 614 54,590 55,691 56,005 79 415 -83,684 -84,144 -85,179 25 801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 22 860 21,104 21,396 20,861 15 446 -17,208 -17,991 -16,823 55 324 53,875 52,498 52,727 80 369 -84,242 -84,173 -90,079 25 045 -30,367 -31,675 -37,352 18 726 22,253 24,502 24,509 53,661 55,149 55,318 -90,120 -90,818 -92,987 -36,459 -35,669 -37,669 24,216 22,636 22,482 Exports Imports 184 473 224 269 237,085 211 198 201,820 219 900 214,424 1 Payments 3 36 31 172 30 386 34 082 1 778 2 237 1 183 Net travel and transportation receipts Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services l Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral trans-1 fers 2 935 997 144 6 214 7 793 8 699 5 138 9 466 13 764 6 128 7 593 7 425 Balance on current account 991 1 873 6 339 QQ9 Q QOO 01,4 Q Q1 7 Q 1 01 4 227 8 593 11 128 9 711 9 881 10 603 37 123 94 308 102 694 9 481 12 157 14 983 46 604 106 466 117 677 492 32 -131 -762 588 -916 -1,226 -1,497 2 238 2,486 2,436 2,552 i 7^9 -8,055 -12,162 -15,063 -2,021 -2,375 -3,333 3 595 -10,076 -14,537 -18,396 7 414 3,896 3,405 4,038 281 -615 -234 -696 1 834 -2,052 -2,332 -2,375 2 630 2,471 2,448 2,333 17 872 -25,394 -25,166 -25,874 2 368 -2,439 -3,107 -4,243 20 240 -27,833 -28,273 -30,117 16 507 - 16,804 -16,240 - 15,254 2 219 5,449 8,262 9,255 2 202 -2,864 -3,031 -3,031 2 442 2,552 2,609 2,999 22 QOO -25,959 -24,454 -29,451 q nof) 9fi 1 1 9 -729 -619 -1,322 -3,458 -4,001 — 4,244 -29,417 -28,455 -33,695 -17,699 -17,311 -16,973 6,517 5,325 5,509 -1,066 -695 -624 -2,701 -2,395 -2,415 2,694 3,100 3,096 -31,015 -30,334 -32,103 -3,023 -4,079 -4,177 -34,038 -34,413 -36,280 Excludes military grants, Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 Net Net military transactions 974 369 1 827 2 917 94fi Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion in the third quarter of 1986 compared with a rise of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $32.2 billion in the third quarter of 1986 compared to an increase of $3.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 80 80 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 60 60 40 40 20 20 -20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS -ABROAD, NET- V -20 -40 -40 -60 1 I I I I I 1978 1979 I I 1980 I I I I 1981 I I I 1982 I L_L I 1983 I I 1984 I I I I 1985 1 I 1986 -60 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net increase /eapit Period Total 1979 1980.. 1981 1982 . 1983 1984 1985 1983: I n rn IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I np m ... U.S. official reserve2 assets * -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -121,273 -50,022 -23,639 -32,436 -1,133 8 155 -5,175 4965 -1,196 3 131 -3,858 -23,691 -523 -8,621 -17,186 -787 16 529 -953 -3,571 -20,171 16,443 -16,338 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow (+)] 2 U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,139 1,152 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 25,431 24,982 20,276 36,325 11,130 27,338 23,006 3 746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 5097 - 100,758 6 131 110 177 -5,005 -43,821 14986 5 523 -2,824 -25,754 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,078 85,496 102,767 127,106 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,968 3,037 1 324 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,486 79,527 99,730 128,430 -1,134 1 263 -1,171 1 436 -21,770 724 -7,979 14 797 16,200 15,756 19,531 34,009 38 1,591 2 662 7,002 16,162 14,165 22,194 27,007 11,086 -5,157 3,626 1,573 88 -176 -3,155 3,417 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 -657 -566 -799 -1,110 2 029 -1,386 1 388 -717 885 -18,220 18,630 -14,512 22,251 41,963 2,668 35,885 -2,947 157 -765 6,906 25,198 42,120 3,433 28,979 1,560 6,040 9,162 10,570 940 -962 3 561 3,577 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 -510 -2,793 -5,867 -23,266 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -807 1 055 -422 540 530 1 382 -5,324 19579 14,247 25,358 35,665 51,837 -11,066 8,486 2,577 -1,322 25,313 16,872 33,088 53,158 12,375 6,852 -1,343 5,125 1,094 1 174 -3,687 3,771 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 -12,898 -25,550 -29,082 -115 16 280 250 -209 1 346 12 533 -25,357 -28,016 36,620 47,526 69,133 2,469 14,704 15,839 34,151 32,822 53,294 10,316 12,437 -3,771 1,216 -1,505 3 993 44,919 46,595 48,087 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMP. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted, Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: ' Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1987 0—69-779
@FedFRASER